2023 Blog Archives

12.29.23 - The Rabbit Ears of Unhappy US Taxpayers

Gold last traded at $2,064 an ounce. Silver at $23.85 an ounce.

EDITOR'S NOTE: The middle class has been steadily shrinking over the past decade; but could the middle class soon be eliminated entirely in the US? There is a reason why most Americans aren't experiencing the same robust and growing economy the Fed keeps touting.

The Rabbit Ears of Unhappy US Taxpayers -Daily Reckoning

by Sean Ring

I’ve lived in Italy for almost 2 years and still can’t speak Italian fluently.

My six-year-old son, Micah, speaks excellent Italian, and his friends’ parents, my peers, are more than happy to ignore me and talk with him.

It saves me a job.

But to improve, I started translating words and phrases I often use. It’s a common strategy to improve speaking ability.

A few Fridays ago, I stood in Piazza San Secondo with my Brazilian-Italian friend, Angelo, whose son plays with Micah. We speak terrible Italian to each other because he’s got to translate his Brazilian-Portuguese into Italian, and I’ve got to splutter through English in my head before any semblance of Italian comes out.

We both just bought houses and got onto the subject of finances. Shaking our heads, Angelo asked me how I was doing. I said, “Niente ma orecchie di coniglio.”

He looked at me quizzically, then his eyes widened, and then he burst out laughing.

Nothing but rabbit ears.

Every married man knows exactly what this phrase means mere seconds after hearing it for the first time.

Usually, it’s with respect to a spendthrift wife, a recently made tuition payment, or a gigantic bar bill.

But now, married or not, male or female, we’re all up shit’s creek together.

While Paul Krugman can’t understand why people are so down on this allegedly thrilling economy, it’s easy to see why.

Everyone’s already broke. VIEW CHARTS AND READ MORE

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12.28.23 - Banks are Closing Branches, Retailers are Shuttering Stores

Gold last traded at $2,075 an ounce. Silver at $24.13 an ounce.

EDITOR'S NOTE: The wave of bank and retail closures continues to crash upon our shores; all while the powers that be assure us the economy is robust and healthy. Some would say these closures better reflect the real financial pain many Americans are feeling.

Banks Are Closing Thousands Of Branches And Retailers Are Shutting Down Thousands Of Stores -The Economic Collapse

If the U.S. economy really is in “good shape”, then why are so many prominent businesses rushing to permanently shut down locations that were once profitable? As you will see below, U.S. banks are closing thousands of branches and U.S. retailers are closing thousands of stores. If a new golden age of prosperity is dead ahead, that wouldn’t make any sense at all. Of course the truth is that most Americans are really struggling in our current economic environment, and conditions are going to get even worse in 2024.

Bank executives can see what is happening, and so they are feverishly trimming costs.

During the first 10 months of this year, banks in the United States closed a total of 2,118 branches…

U.S. banks closed 2,118 branch locations between January and the end of October, according to data from S&P Global Market Intelligence.

Sadly, branches continue to get shut down at a staggering rate.

For example, it is being reported that Bank of America has decided to permanently shut down “nearly two dozen Bay Area branches or ATMs”…

Bank of America has shuttered or plans to shutter nearly two dozen Bay Area branches or ATMs, according to recent filings.

Banks are legally required to report closures to the Office of the Comptroller of the Currency at least 90 days before their scheduled shuttering, so customers will know if they’ll be impacted.

Another way that banks are cutting costs is by laying off workers. READ MORE

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12.27.23 - Coming Real Estate Collapse Will Lead to 'Chaos'

Gold last traded at $2,078 an ounce. Silver at $24.30 an ounce.

Robert Shiller Warns Of 'Cataclysm' For US Dollar Reserve Status If Confiscated Russian Assets Given To Ukraine -Zero Hedge

As the BRICS nations continue on their quest to move away from the dollar, another step toward de-dollarization is on the horizon. With the dollar continuing to take blows to its reserve status, what will its weakness mean for the US economy?

If the United States shifts frozen Russian assets to Ukraine, it would be cataclysmic for the US Dollar's status as the global reserve currency, says Nobel Prize winning Yale professor, Robert Shiller.

"If America does this to Russia today… then tomorrow it can do this to anyone," he told Italian news outlet La Repubblica in an interview published Sunday.

"This will destroy the halo of security that surrounds the dollar and will be the first step towards de-dollarization, which many are increasingly confidently leaning toward, from China to developing countries, not to mention Russia itself," Schiller continued.

The US, EU, and allies have frozen some $300 billion of Russian foreign exchange reserve assets since last year after slapping the Kremlin with sanctions over the Ukraine war. Over the past year, various ideas have been tossed around regarding using the funds to aid Ukraine.

Earlier this month, the Financial Times described doing so as "a radical step that would open a new chapter in the west’s financial warfare against Moscow." READ MORE

Kevin O’Leary Says a Coming Real Estate Collapse Will Lead to ‘Chaos’ — Here’s What You Need To Know -Yahoo! Finance

As we close out 2023, many thought bank failures were behind us. If Kevin O'Leary is correct, we ain't seen nothing yet. A commercial real estate collapse does seem inevitable at this point. What will it mean for your bank and the money you have deposited there?

by Gabrielle Olya

“Shark Tank” star Kevin O’Leary believes that the commercial real estate sector is on the brink of collapse and will bring with it ripple effects that will be detrimental to investors and small business owners. He expanded on this “unique situation” while appearing on a recent episode of “Kudlow.”

Here’s everything you need to know about the state of commercial real estate and how it can have broader economic impacts.

Although many large-scale companies are shifting back to in-office work, many small businesses are not making this return. This means that many office buildings are remaining vacant.

“Many of these office spaces are in sub-grade markets, but even in cities like Boston, you find lots of vacancies — up to 40% of buildings,” O’Leary said. “The challenge is, in every other real estate cycle when you have a correction — which is about to happen here because of rising rates — we’ve got to refinance these buildings. Many of them have no equity left in them.”

This will cause serious issues for the regional banks that are invested in these buildings.

“These banks are going to fail because up to 40% of their portfolio is in commercial real estate,” O’Leary said. READ MORE

One of Wall Street's biggest bears says a 'huge crash' is coming as markets are in the biggest credit bubble in history -Yahoo! Finance

Is there now more debt than can ever be repaid? Mark Spitznagel seems to think so. With $1 trillion of private debt alone in danger of default, it's hard not to agree with him that the bubble may have no choice but to burst.

by Jennifer Sor

One of Wall Street's most pessimistic hedge fund managers is sounding the alarm for a coming market crash, saying the US is in the midst of the "greatest credit bubble of human history."

Mark Spitznagel, the chief investment officer of Universa Investments, which counts the author of "The Black Swan," Nassim Taleb, as an advisor, has previously warned of a market crash even worse than 1929. Spitznagel said in a recent interview with Intelligencer that the crash was coming ever closer, thanks to the massive bubble in the US credit market.

"We are in the greatest credit bubble of human history," Spitznagel said. "It's entirely because of artificially low interest rates, artificial liquidity in the economy that has really happened in a big way since the great financial crisis.

"And credit bubbles end. They pop. There's no way to stop them from popping. Debts need to get paid, or they end in default. And, of course, the debt burden today is at a level that cannot be repaid," he said. READ MORE

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12.26.23 - Silver price shows potential breakout

Gold last traded at $2,063 an ounce. Silver at $24.21 an ounce.

EDITOR'S NOTE: If you're looking for a sound decision to kick off 2024, silver might just be the right choice. Some analysts are expecting nothing short of explosive growth next year as the precious metal is more than fundamentally positioned to do so.

Silver price shows potential breakout to $30 with $42 upside in 2024: Analysts -Investing Haven

Here at InvestingHaven we pride ourselves on making educated forecasts of silver, gold, crypto and stocks (among other sectors).

In addition to our predictions, we like to look at other industry experts’ thoughts on the future outlook of silver.

In a recent report from Commerzbank, they’ve outlined their 2024 silver forecast.

“We remain convinced that the Silver price has upside potential and should also make up ground versus Gold. We are forecasting a price increase to $30 by the end of 2024, which would bring the Gold/Silver ratio down to 72,” the German bank noted.

We agree with Commerzbank that Silver will hit at least $30.

In our projection, we show silver hitting $34.70 in 2024 with upside closer to $50 in 2025.

The Bullish sentiment is also backed by mega-bank J.P. Morgan, who says “Gold and silver are forecasted to outshine platinum and palladium as well as base metals such as copper and nickel,” in their 2024 outlook. READ MORE

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12.22.23 - Gold gains on Retreating Dollar

Gold last traded at $2,053 an ounce. Silver at $24.16 an ounce.

EDITOR'S NOTE: Gold prices are working to finish the year on a high note. As the forecasts for 2024 continue, it would seem the stage is being set for another strong year in metals. This, no doubt, is being helped along by markets - both domestic and abroad - unraveling.

Gold gains after US data spurs Fed rate-cut prospects -CNBC

(Reuters) Gold prices gained on Thursday as the dollar retreated after U.S. economic data fueled expectations the Federal Reserve would cut interest rates in March next year.

Spot gold was up 0.7% at $2,043.79 per ounce by 2:55 p.m. ET (1955 GMT), eyeing its best session in six. U.S. gold futures settled 0.2% higher at $2,051.30.

Data showed U.S. gross domestic product increased at a 4.9% annualized rate last quarter, revised down from the previously reported 5.2% pace, while weekly jobless claims increased slightly.

“GDP data came in a bit soft and gold charged up. Market is craving the burgeoning Fed pivot,” said Tai Wong, a New York-based independent metals trader.

The market expects an 83% chance of a Fed rate cut by March, compared with 79% before the data, according to the CME FedWatch tool.

Lower interest rates decrease the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding bullion. READ MORE

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12.21.23 - Americans Understand Inflation

Gold last traded at $2,045 an ounce. Silver at $24.41 an ounce.

EDITOR'S NOTE: The title of this article says it all. The reason Americans understand inflation is because, they're paying for it! This has been a year of steady increases on the things we need to live all while we've been wrongfully assured by the media - as well as government - that there is no inflation.Nobody who buys groceries is buying it.

Americans Understand Inflation -Daily Reckoning

by James Rickards

Everyday Americans understand inflation perfectly. But the egghead economists and policymakers who govern their lives don’t.

That may be because inflation is one of the biggest concerns of those who live in the real world, and it may lead to a political earthquake next November in the presidential and congressional elections.

Here’s the reality and here’s the political narrative: Reality is that prices have been going up at the fastest rate in 40 years and they are still going up.

Inflation (on an annualized basis) was 9.1% in June 2022, 4.9% in April 2023, 3.7% in September 2023 and 3.1% in November 2023 (the most recent data available).

It’s true that the rate of inflation is coming down, but prices are still going up. They’re going up at a slower rate but they’re still going up.

Not only that, but past price increases are locked in so new price increases are applied to a higher base. This is killing American consumers. READ MORE

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12.20.23 - The Bank Bailout Charts the Fed Hopes You’ll Never See

Gold last traded at $2,032 an ounce. Silver at $24.15 an ounce.

BRICS: China & Saudi Arabia Drive Global End to US Dollar -Watcher.guru

No one knows for sure what the future holds; but if it's the future of the US dollar, it's probably not good. The "dedollarization" movement continues and 2024 could prove to be more than challenging for the greenback.

by Joshua Ramos

For much of the year, the BRICS bloc has seen a renewed focus on de-dollarization. Indeed, its 2023 annual summit ended with a five-nation expansion plan and several initiatives to help boost local currencies. Now, amid the expansion of the BRICS bloc, both China and Saudi Arabia are set to drive the global end to the US dollar.

Saudi Arabia was one of the five nations set to join the alliance. Specifically, it joined the United Arab Emirates (UAE), Egypt, Iran, and Ethiopia. However, the nation is poised to be of massive importance to the bloc’s efforts against the dollar. Subsequently, even a former US official has warned of what its cooperation with the initiatives could mean.

Throughout 2023, the BRICS alliance has shaken up the geopolitical sector. Indeed, the bloc has consistently challenged the status quo of the global order. Subsequently, they have driven their own goal of multipolarity in the current international landscape. Now, those two things could see continued evolution through the coming year, thanks to recent cooperation.

Specifically, the BRICS bloc is set to see both China and Saudi Arabia drive the global end to the US dollar. Indeed, the two nations have agreed to a landmark currency swap that will continue to push Saudi Arabia’s embrace of BRICS local currencies. Therefore, it will only decrease its use of the US dollar. READ MORE

These Are the Bank Bailout Charts the Fed Hopes You’ll Never See in One Place -Wall Street on Parade

How healthy is your bank? The banking industry has faced many challenges this year to put it mildly. It is difficult to know whether or not our bank is safe because, more often than not, we don't know until after the crisis hits.

by Pam Martens and Russ Martens

Jerome Powell became the Chairman of the Federal Reserve on February 5, 2018 after being nominated by then President Donald Trump and passing his Senate confirmation. Powell was sworn in again on May 23, 2022 for a second term as Chair. His second term runs until May 15, 2026.

Unlike most Fed Chairs, Powell has no economics degree. He has a law degree from Georgetown University. For more background on Powell, see our May 18, 2020 article: The Fed’s Chair and Vice Chair Got Rich at Carlyle Group, a Private Equity Fund with a String of Bankruptcies and Job Losses.

Powell’s tenure as Fed Chair has been mired by the biggest trading scandal in the Federal Reserve’s 110-year history. That scandal has yet to be resolved in a manner that meets the test of accountability. See our October report: After Two Years, There’s Still No Law Enforcement Report on Former Dallas Fed President Robert Kaplan’s Trading Like a Hedge Fund Kingpin.

But the biggest Fed scandal hiding in plain sight involves the trillions of dollars in bailout loans that the Fed has funneled to Wall Street trading houses during the tenure of Powell as Fed Chair. READ MORE

U.S. Bank Fined $21M for Illegally Freezing Accounts -Newsbreak

Our modern day epidemic: banks arbitrarily freezing customers' accounts. This economy is difficult enough to navigate already, but imagine trying to do so with no access to your money. Another reason to be as diversified as possible with your finances.

by Advocate Andy

One of America's largest banks has been fined $21 million for illegal conduct.

The Consumer Financial Protection Bureau (CFPB) has assessed the penalty against U.S. Bank as a result of the bank's unlawful activity during the COVID-19 pandemic.

Specifically, U.S. Bank froze customer accounts, preventing tens of thousands of customers from accessing unemployment benefits.

“At a time when unemployment was close to 15%, many out-of-work Americans throughout the country had little choice but to rely on U.S. Bank for their unemployment benefits. U.S. Bank blocked access to accounts and demanded burdensome paperwork in order for consumers to regain access to their frozen benefits," said CFPB Director Rohit Chopra. “U.S. Bank must comply with the law, and the CFPB and OCC are making the bank pay for its conduct." READ MORE

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12.19.23 - Will 2024 bring the 'biggest crash of our lifetime'?

Gold last traded at $2,039 an ounce. Silver at $24.03 an ounce.

EDITOR'S NOTE: Will 2024 bring the market crash so many financial experts have been expecting? Harry Dent believes it's inevitable, and it won't be pretty. If his predictions prove correct, now is the time to diversify your portfolio; before the music stops.

US economist predicts 2024 will bring 'biggest crash of our lifetime' -Fox Business

By Kristen Altus

As the clock ticks closer to 2024, one outspoken economist is making a dire predication about the markets in the new year.

"Since 2009, this has been 100% artificial, unprecedented money printing and deficits; $27 trillion over 15 years, to be exact. This is off the charts, 100% artificial, which means we're in a dangerous state," Harry Dent told Fox News Digital. "I think 2024 is going to be the biggest single crash year we'll see in our lifetimes."

"I'm the guy that's praying for a crash while everybody else is not. We need to get back down to normal, and we need to send a message to central banks," he continued. "This should be a lesson I don't think we'll ever revisit. I don't think we'll ever see a bubble for any of our lifetimes again."

Dent, who spent the majority of his career analyzing proprietary research, credited his against-the-grain prediction to overvalued markets and excessive stimulus spending. While recent rallies have overwhelmingly provided investors with mild recession expectations, Dent remained firm that an "everything bubble" will burst next year.

Historically, market bubbles are characterized by a rapid rise in stock prices, before being met by a sharp fall. READ MORE

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12.18.23 - Gold is the solution to currency debasement

Gold last traded at $2,027 an ounce. Silver at $23.80 an ounce.

EDITOR'S NOTE: The article linked here provides in-depth insights as to where our markets stand currently and how we got there. We have cut to the conclusion below. Gold may not be considered by some to be the "belle of the ball"; it's not buzzy, it's not trendy ... but it's solid and has proven itself a store of value as civilizations have risen and fallen for millennia.

Gold is the solution to currency debasement – Richard Mills - Ahead of the Herd

Indeed, fiat currencies are being destroyed because of reckless money-printing by governments and this is the reason to own gold.

You don’t purchase gold to take advantage of short-term price fluctuations in the market, you buy it because it will always gain in value compared to paper money.

Over time, gold is a store of value because it is not subject to the inflationary pressures fiat currencies are. Since 1913, when the Federal Reserve was created, the US dollar has lost 96% of its value.

The extraordinary value of gold versus dollars is easily grasped by conducting a little thought experiment. Let’s say you were 18 years old in 1971, and just beginning your working life. In five years time you make some smart investments and manage to bank $100,000. At age 23 you have a decision to make: Is it better to plug that money into a retirement savings plan, or buy $100,000 worth of gold, which in 1976 is trading at $125/oz? You decide to buy gold.

Fast forward 47 years. You are now 70 years old and ready to retire. In 2023, gold is worth $2,000 an ounce — 16 times what you bought it for in 1976! The gold bars and coins just sat there in a safe, not earning interest. The 800 ounces you bought at $125/oz ($100,000) are now worth $1.6 million. This retirement nest egg would easily see you through to the ripe old age of 85, and that’s by withdrawing $106,000 a year. Live more modestly, and you could live to 100. Or leave a bunch of money to your kids, grandchildren, or charity. READ FULL ARTICLE

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12.15.23 - Are Stocks Overvalued?

Gold last traded at $2,018 an ounce. Silver at $23.85 an ounce.

EDITOR'S NOTE: It's hard to feel certain about anything these days, but more and more financial minds are warning a recession is all but inevitable. We are headed into a year of uncertainty with an election looming, prices rising and wars being fought globally. Could these calls for recession be wrong? It's possible; but it never hurts to be prepared for any looming financial storm. Diversifying your portfolio is key in times like this.

The Fed is quietly signaling that stocks are overvalued and a recession is almost certain, top economist David Rosenberg says -Business Insider

Investors sent the Dow Jones Industrial Average to a record high on Wednesday after the Federal Reserve signaled that the inflation threat was fading and that it expected to cut interest rates three times in 2024. They may be celebrating too soon, David Rosenberg has warned.

The Fed chair, Jerome Powell, struck a positive tone after the central bank's latest meeting. He pointed to the pace of price growth slowing markedly in recent months, unemployment hovering at historic lows, and economic output proving resilient.

Yet Rosenberg, a veteran economist who's the president of Rosenberg Research, said in a pair of X posts on Wednesday that the Fed's latest growth projection suggested stocks were overpriced and a recession was virtually guaranteed. READ MORE

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12.14.23 - Gold prices soar past $2,000

Gold last traded at $2,036 an ounce. Silver at $24.18 an ounce.

EDITOR'S NOTE: It's beginning to look a lot like Christmas for those who own gold, as the Federal Reserve's latest moves sends the dollar plunging. Even though these price moves can be exciting, gold is always the best form of money for stability; regardless of the day-to-day price. As the Fed struggles to keep the economy afloat - gold will do as it always does - remain a safe haven in any storm. Still don't own gold? Now is the time to act as 2024 may prove to be gold's best performing year yet.

Gold prices soar past $2,000 as Fed signals 2024 rate cuts - Investing.com

Gold prices rose above key levels in Asian trade on Thursday, extending gains from the prior session after the Federal Reserve said it was done raising interest rates and projected lower borrowing costs in 2024.

The central bank kept rates on hold, as widely expected, and said it would likely cut interest rates by a bigger-than-expected margin in 2024, citing clear progress towards bringing inflation back within its 2% annual target.

The move spurred widespread speculation over the potential timing of the Fed’s cuts, and also sparked steep losses in the dollar, which came close to a four-month low.

Gold benefited from this trade, retaking the coveted $2,000 an ounce level as the prospect of lower U.S. interest rates pushed up the yellow metal’s appeal.

Spot gold rose 0.2% to $2,031.88 an ounce, while gold futures expiring in February surged over 2% to $2,046.45 an ounce by 23:50 ET (04:50 GMT).

Still, the yellow metal remained well below record highs of over $2,100 an ounce hit earlier this month, as markets remained uncertain over just when the Fed will begin trimming rates. READ MORE

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12.13.23 - Recession before Summer?

Gold last traded at $2,027 an ounce. Silver at $23.81 an ounce.

Rickards’ Five 2024 Forecasts -Daily Reckoning

'Tis the season for 2024 predictions. James Rickards weighs in on the five main things he sees on the financial horizon. Could he be right?

by James Rickards

I have five forecasts for 2024 to help keep you ahead of the curve in positioning your investment portfolio.

My overall forecast is that 2024 will be more tumultuous and shocking than 2023. That may seem hard to credit.

With two major wars going on, an indicted former president and a demented current president, how can 2024 be more challenging than 2023?

Rest assured; it will be. I explain why below.

It’s a cliche to write that the next presidential election will be the “most important in our lifetimes.” Yet in 2024 that cliche will actually be true.

The divide between the two parties is probably greater than at any time in U.S. political history since the Civil War. The choice could not be more stark and the stakes could not be higher. READ MORE

Billionaire investor Jeffrey Gundlach flags risks to stocks, says house prices may drop, and sees a recession striking before the summer -Yahoo! Finance

Jeffrey Gundlach sees some serious troubles ahead in housing and stocks, as well as continued woes related to the national debt. He also foresees the ugly "R" word (recession) rearing its ugly head again. Sounds a lot like 2023. What will make 2024 different?

by Theron Mohamed

Banking jitters are more likely to boost bonds than stocks, house prices could drop, and a recession will probably hit by summer, Jeffrey Gundlach said.

The regional-banking disaster this spring has spurred people to pull their cash out of bank deposits and park it in money-market fund en masse. Fresh money flowing into financial markets can be good news for stocks, but Gundlach dismissed the idea they would benefit significantly.

"I think it really misses the point to think people are going to go from a money-market fund, a six-month T-bill-and-chill type of a situation, and go into the Ark type of fund or the Magnificent Seven type of fund," he said. "That's such a monumental change in risk appetite that I don't think it's logical."

Gundlach, a billionaire investor and DoubleLine Capital's CEO, made the comments during a recent company webcast. He argued an inflow of funds into Treasuries and other safe bonds was more likely. READ MORE

If Wall Street’s Mega Banks Are Safe and Sound as the Fed Says, Why Do They Need a Half Trillion Dollar Bailout Facility at the New York Fed? -Wall Street on Parade

We've seen more than our fair share of banking problems this year, and have been consistently assured by the Fed that everything is under control. As the old saying goes "follow the money". In this case that money is billions of dollars being allocated to a bailout facility. Even by today's standards of devalued dollars, that's a scary number.

by Pam Martens and Russ Martens

There is a battle raging between the Wall Street mega banks and their federal banking regulators. The regulators want the mega banks to hold more capital against their high risk trading positions to prevent a replay of the bailouts in 2008 and repo bailouts in the fall of 2019. The mega banks have launched a deceptive ad campaign and public relations battle to thwart that from happening.

The federal regulators’ efforts to raise capital are being undermined by Fed Chairman Jay Powell’s perpetual testimony to Congress that the U.S. banking system is safe and sound and adequately capitalized.

Thus far, no member of Congress has thought to question Fed Chair Powell during public hearings as to why the Fed needs a new permanent bailout facility of $500 billion, on top of its century-old Discount Window, if the banking system is adequately capitalized.

The half trillion dollar bailout facility has the benign-sounding name of Standing Repo Facility (SRF). (The Fed always gives a benign-sounding name to the unprecedented bailout facilities it has been perpetually creating since 2008.) READ MORE

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12.12.23 - A Closer Look at the Silver Market

Gold last traded at $1,979 an ounce. Silver at $22.78 an ounce.

EDITOR'S NOTE: As we prepare to enter into a new year, it may make sense to take a good look at beefing up your silver holdings. The white metal is facing a severe shortage with a growing demand; the perfect formula for great returns.

Silver Shortage: A Closer Look at Market Dynamics Heading Into 2024 -Investing Haven

The price of silver may not be reflecting the intensifying silver shortage, but it's a matter of time until the silver supply squeeze pushes the price of silver much higher.

Recent reports from the Silver Institute have sent ripples through the market. Let’s simplify the complexities, focus on key takeaways and what it might mean for the silver market and silver price price going forward.

The topic of silver shortage has been center stage in recent weeks, particularly after the Silver Institute released its later physical silver market data. It evoked a lot of reactions as evidenced by data driven posts on social media.

Let’s review the facts, and add commentary about the market dynamics that go a step further than the data points served by The Silver Institute.

The Silver Institute’s update reveals a decrease in total silver supply due to production losses at major mines, notably the Penasquito mine. On the flip side, non-investment demand has surged, primarily driven by industrial use, reaching an all-time high. Despite slight dips in jewelry and silverware demand, the crux lies in the booming industrial demand, particularly for photovoltaic solar cells. READ MORE AND VIEW DATA

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12.11.23 - Yellen Fiddles While Economy Burns

Gold last traded at $1,981 an ounce. Silver at $22.83 an ounce.

EDITOR'S NOTE: Yellen says the US economy is "doing very well" while, at the same time, JPMorgan has stated that 99% of Americans will be financially worse-off than they were pre-pandemic by mid-2024. So which is it? If Americans continue struggling to pay their bills, this administration is going to be hard-pressed to keep convincing them otherwise.

Janet Yellen Fiddles While America’s Economy Burns - heritage.org

by EJ Antoni

America’s ruling class lives in a fantasy world. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen recently said the United States economy is not only “doing very well,” but that the nation can “certainly afford” to pay for two wars at the same time: Ukraine and Israel. It’s distressing to realize that the woman ostensibly in charge of the nation’s finances knows nothing about them—and the Treasury’s data prove it.

First, the idea that the economy is doing well is laughable. Inflation has become embedded and is running about twice the Federal Reserve’s 2% target, as well as two and a half times the rate it was when President Joe Biden took office. Last year, inflation reached 40-year highs as prices throughout the economy set record after record.

Under the leadership of Mr. Biden and Ms. Yellen, prices have risen more than 17%, and they continue rising. Inflation has outpaced earnings growth so rapidly that the average worker has lost the equivalent of about 5% of his annual income from the dollar’s reduced purchasing power.

The persistent inflation has now led to higher interest rates, which have raised borrowing costs on everything from mortgages to credit cards—and those cards currently have record-high interest rates. An American family trying to buy a median price home today will pay about $13,800 more per year—for the same house—compared to January 2021 because of inflated home prices and higher interest rates. READ MORE

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12.8.23 - Is Crypto the Currency of Criminals?

Gold last traded at $2,003 an ounce. Silver at $23.03 an ounce.

EDITOR'S NOTE: Is the banking crisis in America really that bad? Bad enough that four of the major banks have paid billions in fines since the year 2000. In the wake of this, banks are actively pursuing the transition into the world of digital currency which Jamie Dimon warns is a currency for criminals.

$181,034,960,000 in Fines Paid by Big Four US Banks As JPMorgan CEO Jamie Dimon Says Crypto’s for ‘Criminals’ -Daily Hodl

by Mehron Rokhy

Hundreds of billions of dollars worth of fines have been paid by the four biggest banks in the US as JPMorgan’s chief executive sounds off against digital assets, saying they are for criminals.

According to corporate misconduct data aggregator Violation Tracker, the big four banks of the US – Bank of America, Wells Fargo, Citigroup, and JPMorgan – have paid a staggering $181 billion worth of fines since the year 2000.

The data unveils that Bank of America has paid a total of 324 fines worth $87.2 billion since the start of the millennium while Wells Fargo has been fined 261 times for a total of $27.5 billion.

Violation Tracker also reveals that Citigroup was found to be in violation 181 times, paying $26.9 billion worth of fines while JPMorgan has been hit with a total of 272 fines worth $39.3 billion.

The Violation Tracker covers a range of civil and criminal banking offenses including foreign bribery, money laundering, corporate tax evasion, securities violations, accounting fraud, price-fixing, employment discrimination and more. READ MORE

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12.7.23 - Kiss Your Retirement Goodbye!

Gold last traded at $2,028 an ounce. Silver at $23.81 an ounce.

EDITOR'S NOTE: If the title of this article doesn't send a shiver up your spine, nothing will. Unfortunately it's the stark reality of the direction in which things are headed. How has your retirement fared?

Kiss Your Retirement Goodbye! -Daily Reckoning

by Brian Maher

Do you own a 401(k) retirement account? Do you own an Individual Retirement Account (IRA)?

Gobs of Americans own either or both — oftentimes both.

Let us assume you are among them.

How well have these retirement accounts done you these past 2½ years?

How much have they expanded your wealth?

Here we refer not to nominal wealth but to “real wealth.”

That is, nominal wealth subtracted by the inflation rate.

We need not remind you that inflation has enjoyed a lovely spree in recent times.

A man’s portfolio may deliver him $1 million across 2½ years. Yet what if the dollar in which he trades loses 50% across the same span?

In inflation-adjusted terms — in real terms — he has taken in $500,000.

$500,000 is handsome. Yet it is not $1 million. It constitutes a 50% sawing. READ MORE

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12.6.23 - Case for gold fever

Gold last traded at $2,029 an ounce. Silver at $23.99 an ounce.

Case for gold fever: NewEdge Wealth sees record rush intensifying-CNBC

As gold continues its climb, the current state of the economy and geopolitics are just two of the accelerators for the strong surge. With 2024 promising even more upheaval, this all lines up with the many price projections for $3,000 an ounce gold in 2024.

by Meredith Mutter

The record gold rush may intensify into year-end.

According to NewEdge Wealth’s Ben Emons, the final month of the year typically creates a bigger appetite for the yellow metal.

“It’s been very consistent every December. It’s been a pretty strong performance for gold — especially when there is a rally in the stock market in November,” the firm’s head of fixed income told CNBC’s “Fast Money” on Tuesday.

Gold settled at a new record high Friday. It closed the day up almost 2%, at $2,089.70 an ounce.

Emons listed the economic backdrop and geopolitical backdrop as additional positive catalysts for gold.

“There’s uncertainty next year. We have an election. We don’t know what’s going to happen. We get a recession maybe, maybe not,” said Emons. “At the same time, gold rallies when there’s this risk-on feel in the markets, and that’s really when real rates and interest rates are declining. This gives the gold a really good push for the breakout.” READ MORE

Kissinger Created the Doomsday Deal -Daily Reckoning

The US dollar has been receiving a lot of negative press lately due to rising debt issues, the strengthening of the BRICS alliance, inflationary pressures, and more. To gain a broader understanding of the progression - or rather regression - of the dollar, James Rickards takes a historic look at the dollar's moves.

by James Rickards

As I’m sure you know by now, Henry Kissinger died last week at the age of 100. He leaves a complex legacy, which is certainly understandable because he operated in a complex geopolitical environment.

But Henry Kissinger was a master strategist and political scientist. With his recent passing, I thought I’d retell the story of one of his most brilliant plans, and explain how it relates to the demise of the dollar.

In February 1974, I was asked by Professor Robert W. Tucker of the Johns Hopkins School of Advanced International Studies to join him and four other foreign policy experts for a meeting at the White House.

At the time, confidence in the dollar was on shaky ground because President Nixon had ended gold convertibility of dollars in 1971.

The price of oil was skyrocketing, partly due to inflationary policies pursued by the Federal Reserve, and partly due to an Arab oil embargo in response to U.S. aid to Israel in the Arab-Israeli Yom Kippur War of 1973. READ MORE

Prepare for the S&P 500 to plunge 23% by mid-2024 - and the US economy to sink into recession, JPMorgan's top charts guru says -Business Insider

We've highlighted several forecasts of a very sharp increase in gold prices by mid year 2024, with some expecting as much as a 35% increase. If JPMorgan is correct, the outlook for stocks is not so promising, as they're suggesting as much as a 23% drop in the S&P 500 in the same period of time.

by Theron Mohamed

Prepare for the S&P 500 to crash 23% by next summer and a recession to take hold, JPMorgan's top charts guru has warned.

The stock market is mistakenly pricing in a " soft landing " for the US economy, where the Federal Reserve succeeds in crushing inflation without causing a recession, Jason Hunter told CNBC's "Squawk Box" on Monday. But investors will soon realize the outlook is darker than they thought, sparking a sell-off in stocks, the bank's head of technical strategy said.

"You tend to find your way into a bear market that's eventually associated with a recession way more often than not," Hunter said, pointing to the currently inverted yield curve as a reliable indicator of economic pain. "The odds are stacked in favor of a hard landing, actually."

The Fed has hiked interest rates from nearly zero last spring to north of 5% today in a bid to curb historic inflation. Many stock investors are betting the US central bank will cut rates next year, boosting asset prices and stimulating growth. However, they may be too optimistic as the Fed is unlikely to loosen its monetary policy until the economy cools. READ MORE

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12.5.23 - "A Constant State Of Sticker Shock"

Gold last traded at $2,019 an ounce. Silver at $24.15 an ounce.

EDITOR'S NOTE: It's bordering on amusing how adamantly the administration continues to deny inflation; as if Americans aren't grocery shopping every day and feeling it in their wallet. We are constantly being assured, and reassured, that inflation is in check; all the while we are seeing our dollars purchase less each day. This is yet another strong case for a gold hedge in your investment portfolio.

"A Constant State Of Sticker Shock" – Here Is Proof That Inflation In The U.S. Is Wildly Out Of Control -The Economic Collapse

Do you believe the politicians in Washington or do you believe your own eyes? The politicians keep telling us that "inflation is low", but everyone can see that everything sure does cost a lot more than it once did. Our standard of living just keeps going down, and even JPMorgan Chase CEO Jamie Dimon is admitting that “inflation is hurting people”. But how can inflation be “hurting people” if it is under control? Of course the truth is that it isn’t under control. If the official rate of inflation was still measured using the formula that was in place in 1980, it would be well into double digit territory right now. Prices have been rising much faster than paychecks have, and that is putting an extraordinary amount of financial stress on the more than 60 percent of U.S. adults that currently live paycheck to paycheck.

Vox is a website that leans very far to the left, and even they are complaining about inflation.

In fact, a recent article posted on Vox boldly declared that life in 2023 "means being in a constant state of sticker shock"… READ MORE

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12.4.23 - Gold Spikes To Record High

Gold last traded at $2,068 an ounce. Silver at $25.43 an ounce.

EDITOR'S NOTE: Six weeks ago, the gold price projections of $3,000 an ounce by the end of 2024 seemed lofty. With gold already soaring above $2,100 before the year even begins, that target is looking easily attainable. The time to be diversified into gold is now.

Gold Spikes To Record High Over $2,130, Bitcoin Soars Above $40,000 As Market Calls Powell's Bluff -ZeroHedge

by Tyler Durden

On Friday, shortly after Powell failed to hammer the hawkish case in his "fireside" chat with stocks eager to take out 2023 highs, we said that Powell has a big problem on his hands not so much because if the market was indeed correct about imminent easing that only assures that inflation will come back with a vengeance and Powell would indeed be the "second coming" of a former Fed Chair - only Burns not Volcker - but because the kneejerk surge higher in gold (and digital gold) meant that the once again deathwatch for the dollar - and fiat in general - had resumed.

Well, with futures having opened for trading on Sunday night, what we joked about on Friday, namely that Powell - having seemingly once again lost control of the hawkish narrative - may be leaking emergency rate hikes though Nick Timiraos on Dec 12, ahead of the December FOMC (now that the Fed is in blackout mode)...

... is all too real because suddenly everything that is non printable is soaring, starting with gold, which has exploded as much as $60, spiking to a new all time high of $2,135... VIEW CHARTS AND READ MORE

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12.1.23 - US Groceries UP 25%

Gold last traded at $2,068 an ounce. Silver at $25.43 an ounce.

EDITOR'S NOTE: The current administration claims we just experienced the 4th cheapest Thanksgiving meal in history. What makes this claim so very interesting is the fact that food costs are up 25% over the last three years. This is just one of several claims made by politicians that there is "no inflation", yet prices on everything seem to be skyrocketing.

Inflation Nation! US Groceries UP 25% Since 2020 But Slowing Growth As M2 Money Growth Dies -Confounded Interest

Despite Biden/KJP’s ridiculous lies about about this Thanksgiving being the 4th “cheapest” in history, inflation while cooling is still way up under Biden. In fact, food prices are up 25% since 2020.

Since 2020, US groceries are up 25%, used cars climbed 35% and rents roughly 20%. In 2020, a survey showed a 4-person household spent an average of $238.32 in a week on food at home. A similar survey in 2023 showed that figure had jumped 32% to $315.22.

Notice that food CPI peaked at 11.33% in August 2022 and has been declining since as M2 Money growth dies.

Of course, Biden blames high prices on … anyone but himself and big spending Congress. “Biden admits prices ‘too high’ but blames sellers for 18% inflation.” Sure Joe, the big spending bills you championed as part of Bidenomics that helped surge M2 Money supply (green line) has nothing to do with price increases, just the evil private sector. VIEW CHARTS

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11.30.23 - Nobody wants U.S. Treasury bonds

Gold last traded at $2,036 an ounce. Silver at $25.28 an ounce.

EDITOR'S NOTE: Once considered a cornerstone of the investment world, US treasuries are quickly falling out of fashion. The decline can be credited, in large part, to a government laden in debt - as well as a growing mountain of uncertainty in the global economy. Is this shift a bad omen?

Nobody wants U.S. Treasury bonds -Semafor

by Liz Hoffman

Nobody wants U.S. Treasury bonds.

Once a symbol of America’s economic might and accepted as a global coin of the realm, they have fallen badly out of favor, with serious consequences for taxpayers, investors, and financial markets.

Elementary economic forces — too much supply and not enough demand — have collided to create the worst stretch for U.S. government bonds since the Civil War. The government keeps borrowing to cover its budget deficits, while once-reliable buyers of that debt, both at home and abroad, have pulled back.

The result: Investors are demanding the steepest yields since 2007. Auctions of fresh bonds that were once routine are now going terribly. And bond portfolios are getting absolutely hammered. The longest-dated Treasury bonds are in a bear market worse than the dot-com bust and almost as bad as 2008.

The government is borrowing more than expected, increasing the supply of Treasurys and dinging their value. Meanwhile, the Federal Reserve is selling down its own holdings, dumping yet more bonds into a market that doesn’t really want them. READ MORE

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11.27.23 - 64 US Bank Branches To Shut Down

Gold last traded at $2,014 an ounce. Silver at $24.65 an ounce.

EDITOR'S NOTE: More bank branches are closing their doors, as depositors move to electronic banking. But these closures are also a result of physical cash becoming a thing of the past as more people embrace digital currency. Though there are positives associated with this move, there are also negatives. To learn more, request our report, The Secret War on Cash. Contact us to receive your free copy today.

64 US Bank Branches File To Shut Down In A Single Week; Are You Affected? -Zero Hedge

Authored by Naveen Athrappully via The Epoch Times

Big banks such as PNC Bank and JPMorgan Chase have filed to close several branch offices in multiple states amid a troubling pattern of rising branch shutdowns in recent years.

Between Nov. 12 and 18, several banks filed to close branch locations, with PNC Bank with the most filings, according to data from the U.S. Office of the Comptroller of the Currency. Pittsburgh-based PNC Bank filed for 19 branch closures—five in Pennsylvania, four in Illinois, three in Texas, two each in Alabama and New Jersey, and one each in Indiana, Ohio, and Florida.

JPMorgan Chase followed closely with 18 filings—three in Ohio, two each in Connecticut and South Carolina, and one each in 11 states, including New York, Illinois, Florida, and Massachusetts.

Citizens Bank came in third with eight branch closure filings—six in New York, and one each in Massachusetts and Delaware. Minneapolis-based U.S. Bank filed for seven closures—three in Tennessee and one each in Missouri, Wisconsin, Ohio, and Illinois.

Bank of America made five filings—two in New York and one each in Texas, Massachusetts, and California.

Citibank filed for two branch closures, and Sterling, Bremer, First National Bank of Hughes Springs, Windsor FS&LA, and Aroostook County FS&LA made one filing each.

Altogether, banks filed to shut down 64 branches. READ MORE

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11.22.23 - Recession Is Already Here

Gold last traded at $1,990 an ounce. Silver at $23.64 an ounce.

Gold prices settle above $2,000 an ounce for highest finish late October

There have been several predictions in recent weeks suggesting gold will top $3,000 an ounce next year. Before it hits $3,000, it needs to stay over $2,000. This is significant because these same predictors are saying that $700 of the $1,000 increase they're calling for will happen in the first six months of the year. That said, now would be the perfect time to buy gold.

By Myra P. Saefong

Gold futures climbed Tuesday, topping $2,000 an ounce and headed for their highest finish since late July.

Strong central bank buying of the precious metal, along with signs of easing U.S. inflation that lifted expectations for an end to the Federal Reserve's interest-rate hikes, provided the support the precious metal needed to trade above that key price level.

"Gold is seeing a pattern of strong buying demand coming out of Asia with India importing significantly more gold in October than was forecasted last month," said Peter Spina, president of GoldSeek.com, told MarketWatch. READ MORE

Recession Is Already Here

Are we in a recession? Your personal answer likely depends on what you're looking at when forming your opinion. According to this piece, it's been here a while. It's only those looking at biased data who would suggest it's not.

David Rosenberg argues recession may already be here because Gross Domestic Income is already recessionary; but the only thing anyone is looking at, he says, is Gross Domestic Product. I’ve argued this point earlier this year, too.

Rosenberg notes that significant difference between the two rarely ever exists, but the difference between the two is wider now than it’s ever been. More importantly, he says that, whenever this divide has existed, it has ALWAYS been GDP that fell to come in line with GDI, never the other way around. So, based on GDI, we are already in a recession. It’s refreshing to hear someone confirming all the same points I’ve been arguing for a good part of the year.

Rosenberg makes another point I’ve been pounding — in solitude so far as I’ve been able to see — that the National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER), which declares recessions, did not declare one... READ MORE

11 Signs That US Consumers Are In Very Serious Trouble As We Head Into The Final Stretch Of 2023

The year 2023 seems to have been laden with more financial questions than answers. The year is not over, but the finish line is certainly near. What is the true state of the economy? Mr. Snyder believes the bad stuff isn't over yet, and lists 11 reasons why.

Authored by Michael Snyder via The Economic Collapse blog

U.S. consumers are getting weaker and weaker and weaker. Today, debt levels have risen to unprecedented heights, but thanks to roaring inflation our standard of living has been steadily going down. Most Americans are working extremely hard, but they have very little to show for it. And now the latest economic downturn is really starting to bite. Layoffs are starting to surge again, once thriving businesses are shutting down all over the nation, and hunger and homelessness are exploding. If economic conditions continue to deteriorate at this pace, what will things look like a year from now?

For decades, we have been able to count on U.S. consumers to just keep spending money no matter what the economic outlook was, but now things have changed.

The following are 11 signs that U.S. consumers are in very serious trouble as we head into the final stretch of 2023…

#1 U.S. renters are spending 30 percent of their incomes just on rent…

Renters remained burdened in the U.S. during the third quarter of 2023 despite a slight improvement as insurance costs to landlords mounted, according to a new report by Moody’s Analytics.

Moody’s Analytics found that in Q3, the U.S. rent-to-income ratio (RTI) declined slightly by 0.5% and ended at 30%, a level that is the threshold for being rent-burdened. Renters are considered “burdened” if their rent payments consume 30% or more of their gross, or pre-tax, income. This comes after last year marked the first time that the median renter household in the U.S. paid over 30% of their income on an average-priced apartment when the national RTI reached a high of 30.8%. READ MORE

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11.21.23 - Inflation-Battered Americans Raiding 401(k) Plans

Gold last traded at $1,998 an ounce. Silver at $23.77 an ounce.

EDITOR'S NOTE: As the talking heads of finance continue to debate whether or not inflation is coming, going or staying; there are real casualties in this discussion…US households. Fidelity is now reporting an increasing number of clients are dipping into their retirement savings to just to stave off eviction/foreclosure or to pay bills.

Inflation-Battered Americans Raiding 401k's To Pay Mortgages And Rent -ZeroHedge

In the latest sign of an economy edging deeper into troubled waters, more Americans are raiding their 401(k) retirement accounts to cover basic living costs, according to data released by Fidelity Investments on Monday.

"Americans outside the wealthiest quintile have run out of extra savings generated early in the pandemic and now have less cash on hand than they did when the pandemic began," notes Bloomberg's Alexandre Tanzi, citing Fed data.

According to Fidelity, 2.3% took a hardship withdrawal in the third quarter, up significantly from the 1.8% rate observed in the same quarter of 2022. The top two reasons given for the third-quarter hardship withdrawals: avoiding foreclosure/eviction, and medical expenses.

Withdrawals aren't the only way to crack the 401(k) piggy bank. Fidelity says 2.8% took loans from their retirement balances, up from 2.4% last year. Even more concerning: Fully 17.6% of workers now have an outstanding loan against their 401(k).

Withdrawals and loans aren't just a sign of an increasingly troubled economy -- since they sap retirement savings, they also portend a weaker financial future for the growing number of individuals using those features.

Look for the hardship withdrawal rate to keep increasing, and not just for economic reasons: Starting in 2024, a new rule will allow withdrawals of up to $1,000 for emergencies without being subject to the 10% under-59 1/2 penalty. Unlike hardship withdrawals today, participants will be allowed to repay these sub-$1,000 withdrawals back into their accounts over three years. With empathetic intentions, Congress may instead be enabling financially destructive behavior. READ MORE

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11.20.23 - Fiscal Inferno!

Gold last traded at $1,977 an ounce. Silver at $23.50 an ounce.

EDITOR'S NOTE: We are now in a "fiscal inferno". I'm familiar with a disco inferno from an era of what many would say were better days, but a fiscal inferno is new and quite frightening. Read on to see why.

Fiscal Inferno! US Debt Hits $33.7 Trillion With Unfunded Promises Hitting $211.7 TRILLION, $629k Per Citizen! (REAL Hourly Compensation Has DECLINED By -5.1% Under Bidenomics) -Confounded Interest

We are currently in a fiscal inferno under Biden/Yellen.

And US Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen is just a girl who can’t say no … to big government spending.

In fact, Congress and the Biden (mis) Administration are spending like the proverbial drunk sailors in port. US national debt is up to $33.7 TRILLION. That transates to $259,103 per taxpayer. With US debt to GDP of 138%!

Now, HERE IS THE REAL BAD NEWS! Unfunded promises that politicians made to Americans (Social Security, Medicare, Medicaid, etc.) now stands at $211.6 TRILLION. That equates to $629,000 per citizen. Maybe that should be the deal at the southern border: all immigrants must pay $629,000 for admission!

And the Federal budget deficit keeps on getting worse.

The budget deficits under Biden/Yellen have been the worst in history. So much for Biden whispering “Bidenomics is working!” READ MORE

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11.17.23 - Will gold reach $3,000?

Gold last traded at $1,982 an ounce. Silver at $23.79 an ounce.

EDITOR'S NOTE: Certain factors are known to drive values up: interest rates, inflation, production overages/shortages, geopolitics, etc. So what's been sending gold prices higher? The biggest driver is the ever-increasing US debt. The time to buy gold is now!

Gold To Become Expensive & Reach $3,000: Best Time To Invest? -Watcher.guru

by Vinod Dsouza

Gold prices are forecasted to skyrocket next year in 2024 and reach a new all-time high of $3,000 an ounce. The price of gold is now on an upward trajectory and is attracting heavy bullish sentiments in the charts. The precious metal is consequently moving upward by more than 6% every day and is becoming expensive to accumulate.

The positive growth comes after the U.S. debt grows uncontrollably reaching $33.6 trillion in November this month. In this article, we will highlight if now is the best time to buy and invest in gold to enjoy profits in the coming years.

Bloomberg Commodity strategist and other leading experts have predicted that gold prices could rise by 50% in 2024. Gold is forecasted to reach $2,700 during the first half of 2024 and eventually hit $3,000 by the end of the year, according to analysts. Most Commodity strategists explain that gold could begin 2025 trading at $3,000 an ounce.

So what’s pushing the price of the precious metal up? The rising U.S. debt is the main cause for gold prices to rally in the charts this year. Institutional investors are staying away from U.S. treasury bonds as the American economy is embroiled in heavy yet uncontrolled debt. Since gold is a safe haven and a hedge against inflation, large investors are now entering the commodity market to safeguard their investments. READ MORE

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11.15.23 - Americans Out of Money by Jan 1?

Gold last traded at $1,959 an ounce. Silver at $23.45 an ounce.

The good news? Gold prices are projected to rise significantly. The bad news? So is the US debt. Gold's favorable outlook will continue to shine as the changing global landscape affects our markets and the US dollar.

Gold Prices To Rise $700 Per Ounce As U.S. Debt Spirals -watcher.guru

by Vinod Dsouza

Gold is rallying in the commodity markets in November this month as the U.S. debt spirals out of control. The price of gold spiked 6.1% on Wednesday against the U.S. dollar in the largest jump recorded in a day this month. The development coincides with the U.S. debt reaching an all-time high of $33.6 trillion, which in turn is boosting gold prices.

As gold is looking to kick-start a rally, its price is forecasted to shoot up next year in 2024. Jess Felder, the creator of the Felder Report, said the turbulence in the U.S. economy could boost gold prices. Gold is seen as a safe haven and a hedge against inflation amid times of economic instability.READ MORE

Economic resilience is dependent on consumer spending. If Americans pull back even more than they already have, the economic slowdown will be more severe than originally predicted. According to recent data, that day may be here as the new year dawns.

Many Americans Could Run Out of Money by January 1st -NewsBreak

During the quiet days of the COVID-19 lockdown, American households, in an unexpected turn, piled up a mountain of extra cash, reaching a staggering $2 trillion.

But now, there's a twist in the tale that's as surprising as it was unforeseen. This financial cushion that seemed like a safe harbor during the pandemic storm is evaporating faster than anyone predicted.

Where did all that money go, and what does this mean for families grappling with ongoing high inflation?

According to new research from the Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, U.S. households held less than $190 billion in excess pandemic savings as of June 2022, down drastically from over $2 trillion ¹ in August 2021. The researchers estimate these remaining funds will dry up completely by the end of first quarter of 2023.

This is a worrying sign for family finances. The excess savings provided a buffer against rising prices over the past year. But with that cushion vanishing, many households have little protection left against further inflationary shocks.

Surging costs for essentials like food, rent, and gas are largely to blame for the savings drawdown. Compared to pre-pandemic levels, grocery prices are up 13.5%, rents have spiked 26%, and gas remains 40% higher despite recent declines.READ MORE

It's no secret that we are in the middle of a banking crisis. But it may very well get worse. We agree with Mr. Rickards' advice here, "You should also be cautious of companies where the market value is greatly in excess of book value. That premium can disappear quickly in a recession."

Wall Street’s Dishonest Accounting -Daily Reckoning

by James Rickards

This article is not a lesson on banking (I don’t want to put you to sleep!).

But it’s important to understand some basic banking rules in order to realize why the current banking crisis, which began in March, isn’t over.

Let’s start with what’s called mark-to-market accounting. It’s critical when it comes to determining asset prices and stock prices in particular.

The concept of mark-to-market accounting is fairly simple. Every bank or company has a balance sheet. On one side are assets — cash, stock, inventory, accounts receivable, real estate and a lot more.

On the other side are liabilities — debts, accounts payable, leases, deposits (if you’re a bank) and much more.

When you subtract liabilities from assets you get net worth or the so-called book value of a company as accountants see it. Actual market value can be much higher or lower than book value based on investor expectations and other intangible factors.

Mark-to-market accounting is simply the use of market prices to value your assets. Everything else flows from that. READ MORE

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11.14.23 - Rogers: Gold and Silver over Stocks

Gold last traded at $1,962 an ounce. Silver at $23.08 an ounce.

EDITOR'S NOTE: Despite all of the negative economic news, there is good news in the commodities sector; especially in the gold and silver markets. As we have recently shared, many financial experts are predicting even rosier days for precious metals ahead. Now famed investor Jim Rogers expects gold and silver to shine in the coming year.

Elite investor Jim Rogers touts gold and silver over stocks and real estate - and warns inflation will worsen and a recession is looming -Business Insider

by Theron Mohamed

Jim Rogers expects gold and silver to outshine other assets during a period of historic inflation and widespread worry about a recession.

"If you're in a world where prices are going higher, you want to own the things that are going higher in price," the veteran investor told "The Julia La Roche Show" in a recent interview.

Rogers is best known as George Soros' former business partner, and the cofounder of Quantum Fund and Soros Fund Management. He explained that fast-rising prices make fixed-income assets like bonds less attractive, and the higher interest rates that typically accompany them often weigh on the stock market and real-estate sector.

However, commodities like gold, silver, and rice tend to appreciate during inflationary times, meaning they're "usually a good place to ride it out and even perhaps make a lot of money," Rogers said. He singled out gold as a historical beneficiary of surging prices and raging wars, but hailed silver as the better bet today as its price is much more depressed.

Rogers also said he expects other currencies to threaten the US dollar's role as the world's reserve currency, but he hasn't found the likely winner from de-dollarization as yet. He noted that Washington's use of sanctions against Russia over its invasion of Ukraine has stoked concerns in several nations that the dollar isn't a neutral haven, and could become a liability if a country angers America. READ MORE

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11.13.23 - US Consumer Debt Hits $17.3 TRILLION

Gold last traded at $1,945 an ounce. Silver at $22.28 an ounce.

EDITOR'S NOTE: It is very hard to find a sector of the economy that is doing well these days. There is only so much lipstick one can put on this pig. As economic deterioration steadily increases, now is the time to move your money into assets with stability ... before the bottom falls out completely. Call us today to protect your savings through the coming storm.

Livin’ On A Prayer … And Credit! US Consumer Debt Hits $17.3 TRILLION As Credit Card Delinquency Growth Highest Since Covid Lockdown (UMich Inflation Expectations SOAR To Highest Since 2011!) -Confounded Interest

Under Bidenomics, with its high inflation rate and crushing negative wage growth, consumers are draining their savings and living on a prayer … and consumer credit to cope.

US consumer credit just rose to $17.3 trillion, up dramatically since Biden's inauguration as El Presidente of the United Banana Republics of America.

What is worrisome in the transition rates (like current to 90-days delinquent) Credit cards (blue) and auto loans (red).

A closer look at credit card delinquency rates on a year-over-year (YoY) basis, showing the fastest growth in delinquencies since the Covid economic lockdowns.

Then we have commercial real estate delinquencies are now the highest the have been since 2013.

Meanwhile, University of Michigan consumer sentiment about inflation spiked to 4.4%. That is the highest medium-term inflation expectation since 2011. VIEW CHARTS AND READ MORE

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11.10.23 - 'Messy' Ending for the US Dollar

Gold last traded at $1,935 an ounce. Silver at $22.24 an ounce.

EDITOR'S NOTE: The BRICS bloc's actions continue to threaten the future strength of the US dollar. According to some, 2024 may be a very rough year for the dollar, which will make it an excellent year to be diversified into gold.

BRICS: Economist Predicts ‘Messy’ Ending for the US Dollar -Watcher.guru

Amid the economic alliance’s de-dollarization efforts, the BRICS bloc has led one economist to predict a “messy” ending for the US dollar. Indeed, Kit Juckes of Societe Generale predicted that the rest of 2023 would arrive with a slowdown for the declining currency amid the growing economic alliance.

As the bloc has embraced alternative currencies, Juckes specifically predicted that the “dollar is set to fall back.” Moreover, he stated that the status of the greenback is set to take a different turn in the upcoming year. Subsequently, he predicts a far weaker state as it enters 2024.

There is little argument to be made against the prominence of the US dollar over the last twenty years. The currency has firmly established itself as a gold standard, operating as the global reserve currency for that time frame. However, with the arrival of BRICS, and a greater international desire to lessen its prevalence, things are changing. Subsequently, they could get ugly.

Amid BRICS de-dollarization initiatives, economist Kit Juckes has predicted a “messy” ending for the US dollar. Indeed, Juckes discussed the last two decades of dominance, and how current circumstances may well have them come to a gradual halt over the next several years. READ MORE

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11.9.23 - Gold at $3,000 in 2024?

Gold last traded at $1,958 an ounce. Silver at $22.62 an ounce.

EDITOR'S NOTE: The price of gold has climbed nicely in 2023, but for all the worst reasons. Increasing prices, rising interest rates, bank failures, political unrest, etc. Will all of this continue into 2024? Will gold have even more cause to rise? Some forecasts are saying its jump could be significant in the next 12 months.

Gold Prices Forecasted To Reach $3,000 in 2024 -Watcher.guru

by Vinod Dsouza

Gold prices surged immensely since last month due to the ongoing conflict in the Middle East between Israel and Palestine. The price of gold climbed double digits in two weeks spiking up to 12% in the charts. Gold went from a low of $1,815 and touched a high of $1,968 this week and is now hovering around $1,946 on Thursday. Investors are pouring into gold as its seen as a safe haven compared to other investments during a conflict.

The precious metal holds strong when the stock markets tank due to wars and other global conflicts. However, the mounting fears of an escalation in the Middle East indicate that gold prices could spike further. In this article, we will provide a price prediction for gold for the next year in 2024. READ MORE

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11.8.23 - Americans Are Absolutely Drowning In Debt

Gold last traded at $1,949 an ounce. Silver at $22.53 an ounce.

Another Bank Bites the Dust! - Daily Reckoning

The bank failures continue, and these failures aren't happening in a vacuum; they speak to a deeper truth. The banking landscape in this country has forever changed and its cracks are revealing the deep flaws within the system. With each bailout, the system gets even weaker and the cost to insure deposits gets higher - which is ultimately passed down to depositors further eroding the value of your savings.

by James Rickards

Another bank bites the dust!

Citizens Bank was a small bank in Iowa with about $66 million in assets. Its loan portfolio consisted largely of commercial and industrial loans.

Well, this past Friday the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation (FDIC) announced that Citizens Bank had failed due to significant hidden loan losses totaling about $15 million.

Because Citizens Bank was not a member of FDIC, the bank’s losses will be the responsibility of the state of Iowa.

This is the sixth notable bank failure this year. As you might recall, the first five were Silicon Valley Bank (back in March), Silvergate Bank (a bridge from the crypto world), Signature Bank (another crypto conduit to the regular banking world), First Republic Bank and the giant Credit Suisse.

I warned in March that the failure of Silicon Valley Bank would be just the start. Now we’ve had five additional bank failures.

And this latest failure won’t be the last. READ MORE

Americans Are Absolutely Drowning In Debt, And This Really Is The Worst Debt Crisis In All Of U.S. History -The Economic Collapse Blog

Americans find themselves drowning in debt unlike ever before. Most experts suggest the only way out of the mess is complete reboot which is another way of stating ... a financial collapse.

I truly wish that headline was an exaggeration. Unfortunately, for decades Americans have been extremely irresponsible with their finances. As a result, credit card debt is at an all-time high, auto loan debt is at an all-time high, mortgage debt is at an all-time high, corporate debt is at an all-time high, state and local governments all over the nation continue to get into absurd amounts of debt, and the federal government has piled up the single largest mountain of debt in the history of the world. Our whole society is absolutely drowning in debt at this stage, and the only way out is for the entire system to collapse.

On Tuesday, we learned that the total amount of credit card debt in the U.S. has now reached a new record high of 1.08 trillion dollars…

Americans now owe $1.08 trillion on their credit cards, according to a new report on household debt from the Federal Reserve Bank of New York.

Credit card balances spiked by $154 billion year over year, notching the largest increase since 1999, the New York Fed found.

“Credit card balances experienced a large jump in the third quarter, consistent with strong consumer spending and real GDP growth,” said Donghoon Lee, the New York Fed’s economic research advisor. READ MORE

Bond-market crash leaves big banks with $650 billion of unrealized losses as the ghost of SVB continues to haunt Wall Street - Business Insider

Just when we thought SVB's failure was a thing of the past, its long term consequences threaten some of the biggest banks. Those big banks named here are sitting on massive unrealized losses which seem to make the looming threat of collapse more of a foregone conclusion.

by George Glover

Crashing bond prices sank Silicon Valley Bank in March — and there's reason to believe that what triggered the California lender's collapse may be haunting Wall Street again.

The brutal Treasury-market meltdown has hit some of the largest financial institutions hard, dragging down the share prices of big names such as Bank of America and fueling fears that the turmoil triggered by SVB's bankruptcy may not be over just yet.

Here's everything you need to know about unrealized losses, including why they're dragging on bank stocks and whether they could trigger another financial crisis. Unrealized losses

Treasury bonds — debt instruments the government issues to fund its spending — have been on a nightmarish run since the onset of the pandemic, with investors fretting about rising interest rates and the long-term viability of the US's massive deficit. READ MORE

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11.7.23 - Citigroup considers deep job cuts

Gold last traded at $1,969 an ounce. Silver at $22.63 an ounce.

EDITOR'S NOTE: One of the nation's largest banks, Citigroup, is looking to reduce staff by as much as 10% in the face of continued losses and runaway expenses. This move may cut costs and boosts profits, but at what cost? Employees, as well as depositors, will feel the impact in a very negative way. Shareholders may even be affected if these cuts don't work as intended. Only time will tell.

Citigroup considers deep job cuts for CEO Jane Fraser’s overhaul, called ‘Project Bora Bora’ -CNBC

by Hugh Son

When Citigroup CEO Jane Fraser announced in September that her sweeping corporate overhaul would result in an undisclosed number of layoffs, a jolt of fear ran through many of the bank’s 240,000 souls.

“We’ll be saying goodbye to some very talented and hard-working colleagues,” she warned in a memo.

Employees’ concerns are justified. Managers and consultants working on Fraser’s reorganization — known internally by its code name, “Project Bora Bora” — have discussed job cuts of at least 10% in several major businesses, according to people with knowledge of the process. The talks are early and numbers may shift in coming weeks.

Fraser is under mounting pressure to fix Citigroup, a global bank so difficult to manage that its challenges consumed three predecessors dating back to 2007. Already a laggard in every metric that matters to investors, the bank has fallen further behind rivals since Fraser took over in early 2021. It trades at a price-to-tangible book value ratio of 0.49, less than half the average of U.S. peers and one-third the valuation of top performers including JPMorgan Chase. READ MORE

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11.6.23 - Why Banks Are Suddenly Closing Down Customer Accounts

Gold last traded at $1,977 an ounce. Silver at $23.03 an ounce.

EDITOR'S NOTE: This article really says it all. In the blink of an eye, you can be denied access to every single cent in your bank accounts. As we've been writing about for months now, there is an increasing trend of freezing the assets of innocent Americans. The consequences can be far reaching and the victims can lose more than just holdings while the freezes are unwound, if they ever are.

Why Banks Are Suddenly Closing Down Customer Accounts -DNYUZ

The reasons vary, but the scene that plays out is almost always the same.

Bank customers get a letter in the mail saying their institution is closing all of their checking and savings accounts. Their debit and credit cards are shuttered, too. The explanation, if there is one, usually lacks any useful detail.

Or maybe the customers don’t see the letter, or never get one at all. Instead, they discover that their accounts no longer work while they’re at the grocery store, rental car counter or A.T.M. When they call their bank, frantic, representatives show concern at first. “Oh, no, so sorry,” they say. “We’ll do whatever we can to fix this.”

But then comes the telltale pause and shift in tone. “Per your account agreement, we can close your account for any reason at any time,” the script often goes.

These situations are what banks refer to as “exiting” or “de-risking.” This isn’t your standard boot for people who have bounced too many checks. Instead, a vast security apparatus has kicked into gear, starting with regulators in Washington and trickling down to bank security managers and branch staff eyeballing customers. The goal is to crack down on fraud, terrorism, money laundering, human trafficking and other crimes.

In the process, banks are evicting what appear to be an increasing number of individuals, families and small-business owners. Often, they don’t have the faintest idea why their banks turned against them. READ MORE

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11.3.23 - The 'biggest threat to global order since the 1930s'

Gold last traded at $1,993 an ounce. Silver at $23.22 an ounce.

EDITOR'S NOTE: More and more CEOs are considering the role geopolitics play in the health of their corporations. They can see the dangers that lie ahead if America doesn't get this latest one right; and our current leadership isn't exactly instilling confidence. If the threat exists for them, it exists for all of us. Which is why we should all be considering our investment choices carefully as these events unfold.

The 'biggest threat to global order since the 1930s' is underway and every CEO is talking about it -CNBC

The United States is facing its fourth major inflection point in history since the early 20th century, and if world leaders get it wrong, the results could be similar to what occurred during the 1930s and ultimately led to World War II. That’s according to Frederick Kempe, CEO of foreign policy think tank Atlantic Council, and it is a fear he says more CEOs of major corporations are focused on today.

JPMorgan CEO Jamie Dimon recently warned, “This may be the most dangerous time the world has seen in decades.”

According to Kempe, that’s a feeling shared in many corporate boardrooms.

“Every CEO, all the banks I am talking to, are factoring in geopolitics in their thinking in a way they didn’t five years ago,” Kempe said at the CNBC Global Evolve virtual summit on Thursday.

This shift has not happened suddenly with the outbreak of war in the Middle East between Israel and Hamas, Kempe said. It has been building over the past five years as a series of exogenous shocks have upended the status quo in markets. READ MORE

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11.2.23 - America's debt bomb

Gold last traded at $1,985 an ounce. Silver at $22.75 an ounce.

$2,000 gold is just the beginning. Here’s what might happen next - Sovereign Man

Will gold continue going up? We've already seen a 21% increase this year and it appears that's just the start for this new gold bull. Global tensions, both political and financial, are mounting by the day and are creating the perfect launchpad for soaring gold prices. Now is the perfect time to shore up your portfolio with physical metal.

by Simon Black

Public Law 93-373 was supposed to be so boring that Congress didn’t even bother to give it a name.

You know how most laws passed by Congress have some fancy name– like the “Inflation Reduction Act” or the “USA PATRIOT Act” or some such nonsense?

Well, on November 7, 1973, US Senator James Fulbright introduced a very short bill– it was only ONE page– that didn’t even have a name. But Fulbright’s unnamed bill ended up being one of the most important pieces of legislation in US history.

By the time Fulbright introduced his bill, it had been two years since the legendary “Nixon Shock” of 1971. That was when US President Richard Nixon implemented wage and price controls, and canceled the US dollar’s convertibility into gold.

Nixon famously promised the American public that there wouldn’t be any negative consequences from his actions. Yet inflation hit 3% the following year, in 1972. Then 4.7% in 1973. Then 11.2% in 1974. READ MORE

The fuse on America's debt bomb just got shorter -Fox Business

The US debt problem is not news to anyone ... unless you've been living under a rock for the last several decades. What may be news is that we've incurred as much additional debt in six months than what we did in the previous 12. This is a non-sustainable trajectory by anyone's measures. The downward spiral this will create in our financial markets is nothing short of terrifying!

by E.J. Antoni

If you thought it was scary when the Treasury Department recently dropped a financial bomb, announcing the deficit for fiscal year 2023 was $1.7 trillion dollars, please sit down before you read on. The Treasury just released new numbers projecting borrowing of $1.6 trillion in just the first half of fiscal year 2024.

As if the 23 percent growth in last year’s deficit wasn’t enough, the Treasury is now on track to borrow almost as much in just six months as it did in the previous 12. That’s nearly a doubling of the deficit. It means the Treasury is on track to borrow over $3 trillion this fiscal year, 50 percent more than previously estimated by the Congressional Budget Office.

Besides the pandemic in 2020, America has never run deficits like the previous, current, or next quarter, at $1 trillion, $776 billion, and $816 billion, respectively. In the four quarters that preceded the pandemic, the Treasury had an average deficit of under $300 billion, about half to one-third of today’s levels.

To be clear, borrowing was much too high even before 2020. But the fact that borrowing is now almost three times as high speaks volumes about how quickly things are spiraling out of control. The federal government’s financial situation resembles a stereotypical bomb from a cartoon or cinema, spherical in shape with an impractically long fuse. READ MORE

Russia Makes Huge Announcement on BRICS Currency -Watcher.guru

BRICS has been talking about launching their own currency for a while now, and that time may finally be here. The growing interest in BRICS by countries throughout the world is making this transition a very believable - perhaps inevitable - reality moving forward. What this will do to the value of the dollar remains to be seen, but most experts suggest it will not be a favorable change as it relates to the buck's future.

by Vinod Dsouza

The 15th BRICS summit in August this year ended on a high note as the alliance inducted six new countries into the bloc. The induction of new countries is historic, as the group decided on expansion after more than a decade. The expansion comes at a time when BRICS is working on the formation of a new currency to challenge the US dollar. In the latest update, Russia’s former advisor to the President and economist-turned-politician, Sergey Glazyev, made a huge announcement on the formation of the upcoming BRICS currency.

Sergey’s statements indicate that BRICS is serious about launching a new currency to take on the US dollar. Going by Russia’s economist comments, the new BRICS currency might be launched during the 16th summit in 2024. READ MORE

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11.1.23 - Dot-Com Bubble Redux?

Gold last traded at $1,978 an ounce. Silver at $22.89 an ounce.

EDITOR'S NOTE: A 2,000 person layoff is not an action a robust and healthy brokerage firm takes and - according to insiders - this is just the beginning. Schwab is putting on a professional face for the media but those being laid off are singing a different tune. The last time this happened, things did not end well. Are we about to watch history repeat itself?

Dot-Com Bubble Redux? Charles Schwab Begins Layoffs Amid "Challenging Year" -Zero Hedge

by Tyler Durden

Update (Wednesday):

A Charles Schwab spokesperson confirmed to Bloomberg that up to 6% of its 35,900-member workforce (or about 2,154 employees) were recently laid off.

"These were hard but necessary steps to ensure Schwab remains highly competitive, with industry-leading levels of efficiency, well into the future," the spokesperson said in an emailed statement, adding, "We worked diligently to ensure affected employees were treated with care and respect throughout this difficult process."

The cuts were first reported by The Wall Street Journal on Monday night (read the previous update below).

The last time Schwab went on a hiring - then firing spree was the Dot Com bubble. It appears the pattern is repeating.

According to the layoff tracker website Layoffs.FYI, hundreds of thousands of tech employees have been fired in the last two years.

The latest ADP print shows the labor market has slowed.

* * *

Charles Schwab, the largest publicly traded US brokerage firm, began laying off employees on Monday in an effort to streamline its business model by reducing expenses ahead of next year, which could be full of turbulence in financial markets. This comes as the market's excitement in meme stocks, SPACs, IPOs, and crypto, which soared in 2020-21, has since plunged due to a rising interest rate environment. READ MORE

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10.31.23 - Will gold hit $3,000 in 2024?

Gold last traded at $1,983 an ounce. Silver at $22.85 an ounce.

EDITOR'S NOTE: As you start your financial planning for 2024, you may want to take a look at investing in gold. Gold is projected to reach $3,000 an ounce, this according to a Bloomberg strategist. All the fundamentals are lining up for a bull market in precious metals.

Gold could reach $3,000 in 2024 predicts commodity expert -Finbold

by Vahid Karaahmetovic

In the midst of escalating geopolitical tensions in the Middle East and mounting fears of a recession in European economies, spot gold prices have surged impressively in the past month.

Gold’s value has climbed more than 10%, starting at $1,815 in early October and now around $2,000 per ounce, marking its highest level since May 2023.

What’s even more intriguing is the possibility that this remarkable rally is far from over. According to senior Bloomberg commodity strategist Mike McGlone, the precious metal may have the potential to ascend to as high as $3,000 in 2024.

On October 30, McGlone released a post titled “Copper $3, Gold Toward $3,000: US Recession Could Be 2024 Path.”

Notably, the commodity guru explained how the precious metal reached the highest-ever average annual price of $1,930 per ounce in the period from January 1 to October 27, 2023, in spite of a tough macroeconomic environment marked by robust dollar, resurgence in stocks, and high rates. READ MORE

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10.30.23 - Is Gold About To Have Its Day?

Gold last traded at $1,996 an ounce. Silver at $23.32 an ounce.

EDITOR'S NOTE: Gold is often promoted as a portfolio hedge, an insurance policy against uncertain markets, inflation and volatility. But that may be about to change. Mr. Jim Grant, editor of Grant’s Interest Rate Observer, believes gold should now be viewed as, "an investment in monetary disorder of which we surely have enough in the world". Gold has been waiting the wings but its time to shine gets closer by the day, contact us now to get started.

Gold's About To Have Its Day: Jim Grant Warns No One's Prepared For "Higher Yields For Much, Much, Much Longer" -Zero Hedge

Authored by Christoph Gisiger via TheMarket.ch

The world is experiencing a historic surge in interest rates. Jim Grant, editor of Grant’s Interest Rate Observer, believes the turmoil could be the beginning of a multi-decade bear market in bonds.

In this in-depth interview, he explains what the risks are – and where opportunities arise.

The spike was unexpected: In the US, the yield on 10-year treasuries is rising rapidly toward 5%, the highest level since 2007. From Europe to Japan to Australia, long-term interest rates are also trending upward almost everywhere in the world. There is much speculation about the causes. What is clear, however, is that this shock will not be without consequences.

"It raises the interesting possibility that we are embarked on a new bond bear market", says Jim Grant, editor of the iconic investment bulletin Grant’s Interest Rate Observer. "Bonds are unusual in the world of financial assets as their prices historically tend to trend in generation-length intervals; something we don’t see so much in stocks or commodities", he adds.

In this in-depth interview with The Market NZZ, which has been lightly edited for length and clarity, the seasoned expert on financial history explains what persistently higher interest rates could mean for investors, what risks are associated with this new environment and where long-term opportunities arise.

"I think gold ought not to trade as an inflation hedge, but as an investment in monetary disorder of which we surely have enough in the world": Jim Grant. READ THE INTERVIEW

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10.27.23 - Yellen Says Higher Yields Reflect Strength

Gold last traded at $2,007 an ounce. Silver at $23.09 an ounce.

EDITOR'S NOTE: While the great financial minds of the world - economists and billionaires alike - are sounding the alarm that our economy is in big trouble, Janet Yellen is painting a rosy picture of prosperity and strength. How does she say these things with a straight face? Anyone who lives in the real world, and has real expenses, sees the writing on the wall.

Yellen Says Higher Yields Reflect Strength of the Economy and IRA Success, Not the Deficit -Mish Talk

by Mike Shedlock

Janet Yellen brags about the Inflation Reduction Act (IRA) despite it being an abysmal failure at reducing inflation.

Yellen Comments

• I don’t think this is connected to the deficit. This is a global phenomenon.
• Largely, I think it’s a reflection of the resilience that people are seeing in the US economy.
• We are not having a recession.
• The economy is continuing to show continued robustness. That suggests interest rates will be higher for longer.

The short clip does not contain the Bloomberg subtitle “Enormous investments sparked by IRA, chips legislation.”

But yes, we do have enormous investments in wasteful wind and solar projects. And we have EVs that few seem to want despite massive subsidies.

Quote of the Day

“Janet Yellen is a delusional national embarrassment.”

Indeed, and if you waste enough money the economy will “seem” to grow for a while. But there is always payback down the road. VIEW VIDEO

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10.26.23 - U.S. consumer 'walking towards a cliff'

Gold last traded at $1,983 an ounce. Silver at $22.84 an ounce.

EDITOR'S NOTE: According to Strategist Chris Watling, US consumers don't realize what's about to hit them. This has been brewing for some time now and it's almost surprising we've made it this long. This is why it is now more important than ever for each of us to carefully plan for our financial future; too many pitfalls are waiting along the way not to do so.

The U.S. consumer is ‘walking towards a cliff,’ strategist warns - CNBC

by Sam Meredith

Trouble is brewing for the U.S. consumer, according to one strategist, and a substantial labor market downturn could kick-start a recession.

“I think the U.S. consumer is walking towards a cliff, basically,” Chris Watling, chief executive of financial advisory firm Longview Economics, told CNBC’s “Squawk Box Europe” on Wednesday.

He said that a slew of recent economic indicators had showed consumers are quickly running out of excess cash, while household savings are coming under pressure.

“Of course, retail sales have been quite strong for the last few months and everyone gets quite excited about that, but, actually, if you look at what’s going on, the household savings ratio has been run down, and, in fact, real income growth has been negative for three months,” Watling said.

“So, it’s not quite all good news. I mean, quite the reverse, I think there are some real challenges coming for the U.S. consumer.”

His comments were made even as data suggests the U.S. economy may have turned in another stellar performance, heading into the final part of the year.

Gross domestic product posted a 4.9% annualized gain for the third quarter, according to a Commerce Department report Thursday. READ MORE

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10.25.23 - US in Weakest Financial Position Since World War II

Gold last traded at $1,983 an ounce. Silver at $22.84 an ounce.

Is China Selling U.S. Assets To Buy Gold? - FX Empire

Chinese investors seem to be the first ones to see the writing on the wall, dumping US assets to buy gold. Is this in support of their currency? Or are there geopolitical strategies being employed?

by Vladimir Zernov

According to the recent data from U.S. Treasury, Chinese investors sold $21.2 billion of U.S. assets in the month of August.

While Fed policy outlook was the biggest driver behind the sell-off in Treasuries, it looks that China’s activity contributed to the move that pushed the yield of 30-year Treasuries towards 5.00%.

I have recently written that high Treasury yields may serve as an additional bullish catalyst for gold. Traders are searching for safe-haven assets due to geopolitical tensions. Treasuries are considered to be among the safest assets in the world, but their price is falling for months, and some investors may choose to buy gold.

Chinese investors may be among the first ones to direct their funds to gold markets. There are two main theories about the reasons of China’s rapid selling of U.S. assets.

First, China needs to support the local currency, yuan. The country’s currency settled near multi-year lows against the U.S. dollar as investors focused on the problems of China’s economy. Selling dollar-denominated assets to provide support to yuan makes perfect sense. If China is selling U.S. assets to prop up its local currency, gold will get limited support. READ MORE

Billionaire Paul Tudor Jones Says US in Weakest Financial Position Since World War II -Daily Hodl

Add Paul Tudor Jones to the list of billionaires sounding the alarm. We agree with Mr. Jones that the markets are no longer taking actual threats seriously. This lack of appropriate market response will end in disaster if we don't start paying attention now.

by Henry Kanapi

Hedge fund billionaire Paul Tudor Jones is warning that the United States is at its most economically precarious point in over 70 years.

In a recent CNBC interview, the legendary investor says that tough times lie ahead for the United States as the country’s debt burden continues to soar with the world embroiled in geopolitical tensions.

“The United States is probably in its weakest fiscal position since certainly World War II with debt to GDP at 122%. So it’s a really tough time for the moral voice of the world, certainly been the leader since World War II. It’s a really difficult time.”

According to Jones, the markets are not accurately pricing in the risks involved with the eruption of war in the Middle East.

“I think we’ve become inured to headline risk. If you think about the markets’ reaction to what happened [with Israel and Hamas], it was a linear response. It was risk-off, but it wasn’t anything that possibly recognizes just how dangerous this could be. I think that’s because we’ve gotten exhausted with headline risk ... READ MORE

The yield on a 10-year Treasury reached 5% for the 1st time since 2007. Here’s why that matters

Each day it seems we are seeing the US economy slip further into the abyss. Loan defaults are skyrocketing and, now, rising yields are going to add fuel to that fire.

by Stan Choe

NEW YORK (AP) — The yield on the 10-year Treasury has reached 5% for the first time since 2007. That matters for everyone, not just Wall Street.

Treasury yields have been climbing rapidly, with the 10-year yield rallying from less than 3.50% during the spring and from just 0.50% early in the pandemic. Monday morning, the yield on the 10-year Treasury was at 4.96% after hitting 5.02% earlier. The jump means the U.S. government must pay more to borrow money from investors to cover its spending.

It also directly affects people around the world, because the 10-year Treasury yield is the centerpiece of the global financial system and helps set prices for all kinds of other loans and investments. Besides making it more expensive for U.S. homebuyers to buy a house with a mortgage, higher yields also put downward pressure on prices for everything from stocks to cryptocurrencies. Eventually, they could help cause companies to lay off more workers. READ MORE

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10.24.23 - First International Oil Deal in Digital Yuan

Gold last traded at $1,971 an ounce. Silver at $22.93 an ounce.

EDITOR'S NOTE: We have seen a lot of "firsts" in the de-dollarizarion movement this year and here is yet another, the first digital yuan oil transaction. All of these seemingly small steps add up to a major, internationally-accepted shift away from dollar dominance.

BRICS: China Completes First International Oil Deal in Digital Yuan -Watcher.Guru

by Joshua Ramos

Amid the ongoing de-dollarization approach by the BRICS bloc, China has seemingly completed its first international oil transaction in the digital yuan. Indeed, Chinese oil company PetroChina had purchased 1 million barrels in a trade settled in the e-CNY at the Shanghai Petroleum and Natural Gas Exchange.

The deal is the first oil deal settled in China’s Central Bank Digital Currency (CBDC). Moreover, the move has followed similar developments for the country in its attempt to lessen the international prevalence of the US dollar. Subsequently, it allows the digital yuan to be featured in a move that could be replicated across other oil settlements. READ MORE

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10.23.23 - A Financial Crisis Is Here!

Gold last traded at $1,971 an ounce. Silver at $22.93 an ounce.

EDITOR'S NOTE: Bank are closing branches and laying off employees en masse. Depositors are fleeing and borrowers are defaulting. The banking industry, as we know it, will never be the same. Is this the result of poor decision making? Or is this a more sinister, long-term plan to gain more control over the finances of all Americans by centralizing and digitizing the currency? We may never know the real story but that doesn't mean you are powerless. You can protect your assets now - no matter the cause - by diversifying into precious metals while prices are still affordable.

A Financial Crisis Is Here! U.S. Banks Are Closing Down Hundreds Of Branches And Laying Off Thousands Of Workers -The Economic Collapse Blog

by Michael

I know that there is a lot going on in the world right now, but I just had to write about what is happening to our banks. High interest rates and chaos in the real estate industry are combining to put an enormous amount of pressure on our largest financial institutions. As a result, banks are getting very tight with their money, they are closing down hundreds of branches, and they are laying off thousands of workers. We are in the early stages of the worst financial crisis since 2008 and 2009, and I fully expect conditions to get even worse in the months ahead.

During the first week of October alone, U.S. banks closed a whopping 54 local branches…

Major US banks are continuing to close branches across the US, leaving an increasing number of Americans without access to basic financial services.

Bank of America axed 21 branches in the first week of October, according to a bulletin published by the Office of the Comptroller of the Currency (OCC) on Friday.

Wells Fargo shuttered 15, while US Bank and Chase reported closing nine and three respectively.

In total, some 54 locations had either closed or were scheduled to close between October 1 and October 7.

That is just one week! READ MORE

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10.20.23 - Buy bonds and gold

Gold last traded at $1,981 an ounce. Silver at $23.37 an ounce.

EDITOR'S NOTE: For those who might be wondering what to do with their money in these challenging times, the answer is buy gold and bonds - according to JPMorgan. These asset classes have traditionally been the safe play in times like these; and gold has a long and storied history of preserving wealth in periods of uncertainty. Diversify into gold today!

Buy bonds & gold, be underweight equities: JPMorgan strategist -Yahoo! Finance

by Seana Smith and Stephanie Mikulich

JPMorgan Chief Market Strategist Marko Kolanovic is telling investors to bet on safe haven investments such as gold and bonds. In a note, Kolanovic reiterated the he recommends being underweight equities.

Video Transcript

SEANA SMITH: JPMorgan's Chief Global Markets Strategist Marco Kolanovic is all in on Safe Haven Investments as tensions in the Middle East heat up. Now, in a note to clients, Kolanovic reiterated that he is underweight equities and recommended buying bonds and gold, saying, quote, "While it remains uncertain whether bonds have bottomed, we add back 1% to our government bond allocation given geopolitical risk, cheap valuations, and less pronounced positioning."

So not necessarily anything new that we're hearing from Marco Kolanovic. But again, just a warning here to the Street just in terms of what exactly the next couple of months could look like when we talk about the pressure that we could potentially see on equities. We've seen many strategists here rein in some of their year end price targets for the S&P, what that looks like going into 2024 and how this all plays out. Obviously, a huge issue for investors. And we're seeing that reflected from some of these analyst calls on the Street. READ MORE

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10.19.23 - Silver's Upside Potential

Gold last traded at $1,973 an ounce. Silver at $22.99 an ounce.

EDITOR'S NOTE: Silver, the often unsung hero of the precious metals world, has a ton of room for upward growth. In today's global investment climate, silver has nowhere to go but up as governments and investors alike pour into safe havens. See our special silver introductory offer below to get started today.

Silver Market Update - TINY DOWNSIDE, HUGE UPSIDE... - Clive P. Maund

At this point, given what is going on in the world, silver is regarded as probably the best value investment around with very little downside and huge upside. It is still significantly undervalued relative to gold, which reflects the recent negative sentiment towards the Precious Metals sector that is characteristic of a bottom.

The recent weakness across the sector has been due to a combination of a relatively strong dollar – it has been strong relative to other currencies but intrinsically weak – and rising interest rates. However, the rise in interest rates has been due to the gathering meltdown in the debt market which the Fed and other Central Banks are trying to stave off by means of creating trillions of extra dollars or other currencies, a course of action that will lead to hyperinflation that will in turn trigger a torrent of funds seeking safe haven to flood into the Precious Metals whose finite supply will result in a sector bull market of unprecedented proportions. READ MORE

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10.18.23 - Could the S&P 500 crash by 63%?

Gold last traded at $1,950 an ounce. Silver at $22.88 an ounce.

BRICS: 40 Countries Already Seeking to Join at 2024 Summit

The BRICS count is now up to 40 countries looking to jump aboard the new gold-backed currency train. This growing list of dollar detractors does not leave much of a future for the buck. Many experts believe it's only a matter of time before the tide permanently turns against the greenback.

by Joshua Ramos

Following the landmark expansion that took place at the last BRICS summit, there are now more than 40 countries that are already seeking to join the economic alliance at the 2024 summit. Indeed, next year’s event is set to take place in Russia, with nations already preparing to submit an application.

For much of this year, countries had prepared to pitch why they should be included in the economic bloc. Since the collective sent out six invitations, the desire to join has not diminished. Subsequently, the bloc is now preparing for next year’s summit and what countries they could invite.

The BRICS economic bloc made geopolitical waves when it expanded its current membership. The bloc went from its original five of Brazil, Russia, India, China, and South Africa to a roster of 11. Specifically, the bloc invited Saudi Arabia, Iran, the United Arab Emirates (UAE), Argentina, Ethiopia, and Egypt.

Now that the BRICS bloc is expected to officially grow in 2024, more than 40 countries are already seeking to join the bloc at the next summit. The Russian region of Kazan is set to be the host of the event. Interestingly, the bloc is returning to Russia after first visiting the country at its inaugural summit. READ MORE

The S&P 500 is in a historic bubble and could crash by 63%, markets guru John Hussman warns -Business Insider

The S&P 500 is poised to drop 63%; this according to market guru John Hussman. Overvalued markets, coupled with a cracking economy, make this no surprise to many; however, it seems many investors think the party can keep raging. This "reckless speculation" may ultimately be their undoing.

by Theron Mohamed

"Market valuations stand at one of the three great bubble extremes in US history," rivaling the peaks of 1929 and 2000, the veteran investor and financial historian said in his latest research note. Those two previous periods of reckless speculation ended disastrously, and the current bubble is likely to unwind in similar fashion, he added.

The Hussman Investment Trust president based his bleak outlook on an analysis of stock-market returns over the last century or so. He cautioned that virtually every market cycle in history has ended with projected S&P 500 total returns returning to historical norms.

"At present, that would require a market loss on the order of -63% in the S&P 500," he wrote, raising the prospect that the benchmark stock index could fall to around 1,600 points, its lowest level since 2013.

"That's not a forecast, but it certainly is a historically-consistent estimate of the potential downside risk created by more than a decade of Fed-induced yield-seeking speculation," he continued. "Buckle up." READ MORE

Unretiring: More retirees are going back to work because they want to — or need to -Yahoo! Finance

While a number of retirees are reentering the work force for social or emotional reasons, 48% of them feel they need to go back to work just to keep themselves and their families financially afloat. As markets falter, this trend is likely to increase.

by Kerry Hannon - Senior Columnist

Richard Eisenberg retired in 2022.

At 65, he stepped away from his job as managing editor for "Next Avenue," the PBS website for people over 50, where he had worked for a decade.

"I had a rough idea of what my retirement would be," Eisenberg told Yahoo Finance. "I knew I would be 'unretiring' since I still wanted to be doing some writing, some editing, and some teaching, but not all the time."

So far, he has. Eisenberg, who lives in Westfield, N.J., explores "unretirement" in his expert columns, podcast and teaching posts, including an online NYU master class.

"I'm seeing a lot of curiosity about the idea," he said. "I'm still a little surprised that it seems like such a foreign concept to people."

A growing number of retirees like Eisenberg have stepped off the sidelines and headed back to work, especially after many were forced to retire in the pandemic, according to a new report from T. Rowe Price. Around 7% of retirees are looking for work in retirement, while 20% say they’re already working part time or full time.

"In 2021, during the pandemic, that percentage was 10%," Judith Ward, a certified financial planner and thought leadership director at T. Rowe Price, told Yahoo Finance. "They might have been forced to retire, and now we're seeing that they are reentering the workforce." READ MORE

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10.17.23 - Homebuilder Sentiment Slumped (Again)

Gold last traded at $1,923 an ounce. Silver at $22.80 an ounce.

EDITOR'S NOTE: It's getting increasingly difficult to find any data that points to rosier days ahead, no matter how it's manipulated. Even the Pollyanna types are starting to lose hope when faced with the harsh realities all markets are experiencing in today's economic climate. Real estate is always a good indicator of consumer sentiment; and the news is not good.

Homebuilder Sentiment Slumped (Again) In October Amid "Housing Affordability Crisis" - ZeroHedge

by Tyler Durden

"It is difficult to get a man to understand something, when his salary depends on his not understanding it."

The quote - attributed to Upton Sinclair - sums up the blind optimism that has dominated homebuilder confidence data for the last six months. But reality is really starting to sink in and this morning's data for October shows another big disappointment as the headline NAHB confidence index printed at 9-month lows (down 5 to 45, vs 49 exp). That is the 4th straight monthly miss in a row (and 5 upside surprises)...

Alicia Huey, NAHB chair, said in a statement: “Builders have reported lower levels of buyer traffic, as some buyers, particularly younger ones, are priced out of the market because of higher interest rates."

Measures of current and expected sales, as well as a gauge of prospective buyer traffic, also dropped to their lowest levels since the start of the year.

Adding that “higher rates are also increasing the cost and availability of builder development and construction loans, which harms supply and contributes to lower housing affordability,” Huey said.

Builder sentiment in all four major US regions declined from a month earlier.

In order to get buyers to close deals in the current high interest-rate environment, many builders are offering financial incentives. The share of builders offering all types of buyer incentives rose to 62% this month, matching the cycle high reached in December.

And if homebuyer confidence is anything to go by, homebuilder confidence has a long way to go to catch down to the harsh reality of almost 8% mortgages (when median mortgage holders' rates are around 3-4%)...

If manipulating affordability lower was The Fed's goal, they failed. READ MORE AND VIEW CHARTS

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10.16.23 - High Prices Are Eroding Living Standards

Gold last traded at $1,920 an ounce. Silver at $22.60 an ounce.

EDITOR'S NOTE: Rising prices in commodities, goods and services are something all of us have come to expect during our lifetimes. But in the last few years, those increases have been handed down at warp speed; So much so that the American standard of living has changed drastically in a very short period. According to these charts compiled by ZeroHedge, there may be reason to believe we may see this continue for at least 2-3 years.

Record 49% Of Americans Say "High Prices Are Eroding Living Standards"; UMich - ZeroHedge

by Tyler Durden

UMich inflation expectations soared in preliminary October data, with the year-ahead inflation expectations rose from 3.2% last month to 3.8% this month. The current reading is the highest since May 2023 and remains well above the 2.3-3.0% range seen in the two years prior to the pandemic. Long-run inflation expectations edged up from 2.8% last month to 3.0% this month...

All cohorts saw decreases in sentiment...

Meanwhile, the headline consumer sentiment gauge plunged to 63.0 (67.1 exp) from 68.1, led by a big drop in expectations (from 66.0 to 60.7)

UMich's Joanne Hsu noted, "assessments of personal finances declined about 15%, primarily on a substantial increase in concerns over inflation, and one-year expected business conditions plunged about 19%."

About 49% of consumers reported that high prices are eroding their living standards, up substantially from 39% last month and matching the all-time high last recorded in July 2022. READ MORE AND VIEW CHARTS

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10.13.23 - Gold Soaring As MidEast Conflict Escalates

Gold last traded at $1,929 an ounce. Silver at $22.71 an ounce.

EDITOR'S NOTE: There has been quite a bit of buzz about gold lately; from the BRICS gold-backed currency to the consistent and heavy buying by the central bank. Now, as the atrocities of war unfold in the Middle East, we are seeing another wave of buyers entering the market. Physical gold diversification is a key safeguard in every investment portfolio for protection against periods of uncertainty.

Oil & Gold Are Soaring As MidEast Conflict Escalates - ZeroHedge

by Tyler Durden

While the dollar is relatively flat overnight, both gold and crude are soaring (and bonds bid) as fears of what lies ahead this weekend in Israel and Palestine spark risk-off around the world.

The dollar has gone nowhere since reaching last Friday's pre-payrolls level...

The Israel-Hamas war hasn't had any direct effect on global oil supplies and flows so far, but traders are wary that the conflict could disrupt transportation through vital chokepoints or lead to tougher restrictions on Iranian exports. Additionally, the US tightened sanctions on Russian crude exports, which exacerbated concerns about supplies...

And gold has done nothing but rise since the Hamas attack in Israel... READ MORE AND VIEW CHARTS

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10.12.23 - Gold: best hedge against geopolitical risks

Gold last traded at $1,869 an ounce. Silver at $21.80 an ounce.

EDITOR'S NOTE: "Investors in gold should increase their holdings of the precious metal to beat multiple uncertainties", this advice from investment experts who see what's up ahead. This has been the same advice Swiss America has been giving for over 40 years now. The message has never been more true than it is today. Call us today to find out how you can protect your wealth from these multiple uncertainties.

Gold becoming best hedge against geopolitical risks, experts contend -China Daily

by Shi Jing

Investors in gold should increase their holdings of the precious metal to beat multiple uncertainties, experts said on Monday, even as prices have turned volatile recently due to escalated geopolitical tensions and a muted global economic outlook.

Gold prices rallied on Monday as demand for safe-haven assets jumped worldwide after a surprise attack on Israel by militant group Hamas on Saturday.

Prices of COMEX gold futures in New York opened nearly 1 percent higher on Monday at $1,863.50 per ounce and stayed at about $1,865 in the following trading hours.

Spot gold prices in London also jumped over 1.3 percent to $1,856.95 per ounce shortly after trading began on Monday.

The "renewed geopolitical conflict in the Middle East rattled investors' nerves and boosted safe havens such as gold", Dhwani Mehta, a senior analyst and manager of the Asian session at financial information provider FXStreet, said in an article on Monday.

Going forward, all eyes will be on the Middle East conflict, which could impact the US dollar and gold prices. But further upside in gold rates could be capped should there be increased demand for the greenback as a safe-haven asset, she wrote. READ MORE

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10.11.23 - This Chart Should Scare You

Gold last traded at $1,873 an ounce. Silver at $22.03 an ounce.

BRICS Influence Global Acquisition of Gold to Ditch USD Reserves -Watcher.guru

It appears that central banks are falling in line with the BRICS alliance. What initially seemed to be a select, few countries turning their nose up at the dollar has quickly become a tidal wave of dollar dissent.

by Joshua Ramos

The BRICS economic alliance has undoubtedly influenced a global acquisition of gold, as a host of countries seek to ditch their US dollar (USD) reserves. Indeed, the economic bloc has set out on a de-dollarization plan in order to further promote local currencies. Subsequently, central banks have been purchasing gold at record rates.

According to a new report from Markets Insider, a variety of central banks are seeking to reduce an “overconcentration” of USD reserves. Therefore, these countries have opted to purchase record amounts of the metal. The move aligns with overall BRICS activity throughout the year and the poor performance of the greenback.

All eyes were firmly fixed on the BRICS annual this summer as the bloc faced its most vital moment. There, the economic alliance welcomed six countries to their membership ranks and discussed key economic ideas. Although the bloc didn’t initiate a long-discussed alternative currency plan, they did further commit to greater de-dollarization.

Now, the BRICS bloc is setting a standard, as they have led a global acquisition of gold as countries seek to ditch their USD reserves. Specifically, a report notes that monetary authorities throughout the globe have purchased 387 metric tons of gold in the first half of 2023. Additionally, the move comes after they purchased 1,083 tons throughout the year. READ MORE

This Chart Should Have You Quaking with Fear -Daily Reckoning

Everyone is familiar with the expression, "a picture is worth a thousand words"; the graph here depicts the bubbles we have waiting to pop in our markets today and can be summed up in one word ... terrifying. This particular graph has been utilized since 1928 and has been one of the more consistent foretellers of market movement.

by Vern Gowdie

click to expand

We cannot control the level of incompetence exercised by elected officials.

The only thing we have power over are our own thoughts and actions.

Knowledge is the key to successfully navigating, what I anticipate, is going to be a very challenging period ahead.

What we think we know (based on a multitude of long-established valuation metrics) is the US share market peaked in late 2021, at what can be best described as…an extremely over-valued level.

Historically, over-valued and under-valued markets go through a time-honoured process of ‘mean reversion’…falling to lower levels or rising to higher levels.

John Hussman’s ‘Durable Gains’ chart — tracking the emotional ebb and flow of the S&P 500 (blue line) against the mathematically determined ‘True Value’ (green line) since 1928 — illustrates how, over the longer term, the S&P 500 ‘ducks and weaves’ its way around the level of ‘true value’.

When social mood is less than upbeat — Depression, The Second World War and the Inflationary 1970’s — the S&P 500 falls below its True Value…a signal to buy…one most people ignore.

Conversely, if people’s spirits are buoyed by a feeling of prosperity (the 1950s and 60s and 1995 onwards), the S&P 500 is pushed higher by a feel-good air of optimism…a signal to reduce exposure…again, one most people ignore. READ MORE

Another Massive Bank is Now At Risk of Collapsing -Frank Nez

In banking news, analysts are warning of another major bank on the brink of collapse, Metro Bank. The bank has been struggling with an anemic balance sheet, among other issues, that has caused their stock price to drop over 60% on the year...so far. It begs the question yet again, how many big banks can fail before a much bigger crisis is triggered throughout the entire economy?

Another massive bank is now at risk of collapsing as it struggles to put together a rescue takeover, reports the WSJ.

“Investors have been jittery for months about banks, after the implosions of Silicon Valley Bank, First Republic, Credit Suisse and others,” says Caitlin McCabe.

“Metro Bank was hobbled by company-specific problems”, S&P Global Ratings said Monday—primarily due to “subscale, high-cost business model” and a less efficient balance sheet than bigger peers.

Metro Bank was initially set out to compete with Barclays and NatWest, which at first began to attract deposits quite well.

However, the bank “struggled with poor profitability and a big real-estate footprint, as well as problems with loan accounting in 2019,” per WSJ.

Shares of the bank are currently down more than -61% this year-to-date. READ MORE

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10.10.23 - Global central banks hoarding gold like never before

Gold last traded at $1,859 an ounce. Silver at $21.82 an ounce.

EDITOR'S NOTE: Central banks have been accumulating gold at a record pace, with the specific intention of getting out of US dollars. Global de-dollarization is heating up more each day; with this accumulation, as well as the continued emergence of the BRICS alliance. Nations always seem to turn to gold in times of trouble, so should you.

Global central banks are hoarding gold like never before as they seek to reduce 'overconcentration' of dollar reserves -Business Insider

by Anil Varma

Global central banks have been snapping up record amounts of gold since the start of 2022 - a trend that should continue as countries look to move away from an "overconcentration" of reserves in the dollar, according to State Street Global Advisors.

Monetary authorities across nations made net purchases of 387 metric tons of the yellow metal in the first half of 2023, after buying an unprecedented 1,083 tons the whole of last year, the world's fourth-largest asset manager said in a recent note.

In addition to reserve diversification, the trend is also driven by central banks' desire to strengthen balance sheets and increase liquidity without adding credit risk, according to the firm.

"The reasons driving central bank gold purchases — to diversify their reserves, improve their balance sheets, and gain liquidity from an asset without credit risk — likely won't change given today's increasing economic and geopolitical risks," Maxwell Gold, head of gold strategy at State Street, wrote in the note.

"Therefore, as we look ahead, we expect central banks to continue their role as net purchasers of gold," he added. READ MORE

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10.9.23 - Billion-Dollar Bank Refuses To Make Customer Whole

Gold last traded at $1,861 an ounce. Silver at $21.88 an ounce.

EDITOR'S NOTE: The latest in the endless stream of banks behaving badly, a Florida business had $270k stolen from its bank account in March and is still awaiting resolution seven months later. The bank maintains they have escalated the situation to their fraud team, but that is of little comfort to a business owner who wonders if she will ever see her money again. The bank has also conveniently denied any requests for an interview. Another example, and there are many, of the Secret War being waged against our finances every day.

$270,000 Disappears From Business Owner's Bank Account, Billion-Dollar Bank Refuses To Make Customer Whole: Report -Daily Hodl

by Henry Kanapi

A business owner in Southwest Florida is searching for answers after hundreds of thousands of dollars vanished from her bank account.

Tiffany Allen says $270,000 was initially stolen from her family's Truist Bank business account in five separate unauthorized transfers, reports the CBS-affiliated news station WINK.

"You feel like, to be robbed or [have] something [taken] from you, you have no control of it…

Truist should stand behind its customers. That’s their job. That’s why we put our money in the banks."

Allen, whose family owns the recreational vehicle consignment business RV Kountry, initially believed the Charlotte, North Carolina-based lender would find a way to make her business whole.

“You just feel a little sick to your stomach. But at first, you’re like, this is fraud! They’re going to reject these wires and get our money back.”

The bank has denied requests for an interview and issued a statement saying it “immediately escalated” Allen’s concerns to its fraud team back in March. READ MORE

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10.6.23 - All Signals Point to Crash

Gold last traded at $1,829 an ounce. Silver at $21.51 an ounce.

EDITOR'S NOTE: Pull up the homepage of any financial news site right now and you will see many words of warning; collapse, crash, recession, etc. All of the great economic minds see trouble ahead. But what does this mean for the average investor trying to stay afloat? Now is the time to ensure you are properly diversified into recession-proof assets. Call Swiss America today to move 10-15% of your portfolio into tangible assets like gold and silver.

JPMorgan's Marko Kolanovic braces for 20% market plunge, delivers recession warning -CNBC

by Stephanie Landsman

JPMorgan's Marko Kolanovic is bracing for a 20% sell-off to hit the S&P 500.

According to the Institutional Investor hall-of-famer, high interest rates are creating a breaking point for stocks — and choosing cash at a 5.5% return in money market and short-term Treasurys is a key protection strategy right now.

"I'm not sure how we’re going to avoid it [recession] if we stay at this level of interest rates," the firm's chief market strategist and global research co-head told CNBC's "Fast Money" on Thursday.

The S&P 500 closed at 4,258.19 on Thursday and is on the cusp of a five-week losing streak. The index is down more than 5% over the past month.

Kolanovic believes the weakness isn’t a strong sign a monster move lower is already here. He indicates a near-term bounce is still possible because a lot hinges on economic reports over the next few months.

"[We're] not necessarily calling for an immediate sharp pullback," he said. "Could there be another five, six, seven percent upside in equities? Of course... But there's a downside. It could be 20% downside." READ MORE

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10.5.23 - What happens If BRICS Stops Using the Dollar?

Gold last traded at $1,821 an ounce. Silver at $21.00 an ounce.

EDITOR'S NOTE: It's no secret that the BRICS countries are actively working toward abandoning the dollar. This article succinctly breaks down the areas of our economy likely to be impacted the most. As expected it's not so much the creature comforts we enjoy, as much as it is the things we all need to live.

10 U.S. Sectors To Be Affected If BRICS Stops Using the Dollar -Watcher.guru

by Vinod Dsouza

The BRICS summit ended on a high note in August after the bloc inducted six new countries into the group. Leading oil-producing nations Saudi Arabia, the UAE, Egypt, Iran, and Ethiopia will join the alliance in January 2024. Also, Argentina is the only new BRICS member that does not produce and export oil. The one common thing between the 11-member BRICS group is their disdain for the U.S. dollar. Moreover, BRICS is looking to end dependency on the U.S. dollar by promoting their local currencies for cross-border transactions.

In this article, we will highlight the 10 American sectors that could be severely affected if BRICS stops using the U.S. dollar for trade. The American economy could be significantly impacted if other local currencies grow stronger in the international markets.

A total of 10 financial sectors in the U.S. will be affected if BRICS uses local currencies and not the U.S. dollar. The sectors include banking, trade, forex, and tourism, among others. The U.S. financial sectors that could be affected if BRICS ditch the U.S. dollar are:

1. Global Financial System
2. Banking and Finance
3. Energy and Commodity Markets
4. International Trade and Investment
5. Capital Markets
6. Consumer Goods and Retail
7. Production and Consumption
8. Technology and Fintech
9. Government and Policy
10. Travel and Tourism

Moreover, all the 10 sectors are closely linked to the U.S. economy and could have complications if the dollar loses demand. The banking sector could take the first hit that might eventually spill over to the markets. READ MORE

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10.4.23 - Something is breaking in financial markets

Gold last traded at $1,816 an ounce. Silver at $20.85 an ounce.

Something “Big and Stupid” Is Coming… -Daily Reckoning

Boy did the title of this article catch my eye. Sure could describe many of the scenarios we are facing today. In this case it's tied to the coming debt crisis and reflects the harsh reality of where things are headed.

by James Rickards

With debt levels reaching all-time highs in major developed and developing economies, and with debt-to-GDP ratios also in record territory (not including contingent liabilities such as Social Security, health care and other entitlements, which make matters worse), it seems time to consider just how nations will deal with this problem.

The debt crisis may not be imminent, but it is unavoidable. When it happens, it may present the greatest financial disaster of all time. It’s never too soon for investors to consider the fallout.

When you issue debt in a currency you print, there’s no need for default in the sense of non-payment.

You can just have the central bank buy the debt (by printing money). This is the situation today in the U.S., Japan, the U.K. and the European Monetary Union (the countries that use the euro). They all have huge debt burdens, but they all have central banks that can simply buy the debt by printing money to avoid default. READ MORE

Something is breaking in financial markets — Here’s what’s behind the sell-off -CNBC

Our economy and financial markets have been enjoying the benefits of historically low interest rates for quite awhile; but as markets absorb the hikes, that's all about to change. This time it's not limited to specific sectors of the market like we typically see in a downturn or sell-off, it's everywhere.

by Jeff Cox

That cracking sound in financial markets isn’t the typical kind of break, where one asset class or another fractures and gives way. Instead, this is more a break in a narrative, one that has widespread repercussions.

The narrative in question is the one where the Federal Reserve holds interest rates low and everyone on Wall Street gets to enjoy the fruits.

That’s changing.

In its place comes a story in which rates are going to stay higher for longer, an idea Fed officials have tried to get the market to accept and which investors are only now beginning to absorb.

The pain of recognition was acute for Wall Street on Tuesday, with major averages down sharply across the board and Treasury yields surging to their highest levels in some 16 years.

“When you have an economy predicated on zero rates, this fast move [by the 10-year Treasury yield] towards 5%, the calculus has to change, because the ramifications are going to change,” said Quincy Krosby, chief global strategist at LPL Financial. “The cost of capital is going up, companies are going to have to refinance at a higher rate.”

The surge in rates is especially ominous as corporate America heads to third-quarter earnings reporting season, which is right around the corner.

“All of this has to be assimilated and digested by the market,” Krosby added. “You can see that it’s troubling and it’s difficult.” READ MORE

No Privacy, No Property: The World In 2030 According To The WEF -ZeroHedge

The WEF. This may or may not be a familiar term to you, but it stands for the World Economic Forum. They've been trucking along for 50 years now and have rather quickly become known for "futuristic thinking & planning" when it comes to determining projections for societies, economies etc. The group consists of business and political leaders alike. Their recent projections don't bode well for our cherished liberties.

Authored by Madge Waggy via SevenWop.home.blog

The World Economic Forum (WEF) was founded fifty years ago. It has gained more and more prominence over the decades and has become one of the leading platforms of futuristic thinking and planning. As a meeting place of the global elite, the WEF brings together the leaders in business and politics along with a few selected intellectuals. The main thrust of the forum is global control.

Free markets and individual choice do not stand as the top values, but state interventionism and collectivism. Individual liberty and private property are to disappear from this planet by 2030 according to the projections and scenarios coming from the World Economic Forum.

Individual liberty is at risk again. What may lie ahead was projected in November 2016 when the WEF published “8 Predictions for the World in 2030.” According to the WEF’s scenario, the world will become quite a different place from now because how people work and live will undergo a profound change. The scenario for the world in 2030 is more than just a forecast. It is a plan whose implementation has accelerated drastically since with the announcement of a pandemic and the consequent lockdowns.

According to the projections of the WEF’s “Global Future Councils,” private property and privacy will be abolished during the next decade. The coming expropriation would go further than even the communist demand to abolish the property of production goods but leave space for private possessions. The WEF projection says that consumer goods, too, would be no longer private property.

If the WEF projection should come true, people would have to rent and borrow their necessities from the state, which would be the sole proprietor of all goods. The supply of goods would be rationed in line with a social credit points system. Shopping in the traditional sense would disappear along with the private purchases of goods. Every personal move would be tracked electronically, and all production would be subject to the requirements of clean energy and a sustainable environment. READ MORE

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10.3.23 - WeWork On Brink Of Default

Gold last traded at $1,822 an ounce. Silver at $21.16 an ounce.

EDITOR'S NOTE: Another domino falls in the weakening CRE market, WeWork is making headlines with a recent default of nearly $100 million in interest payments. According to banking officials this is a standard move in today's climate, but that seems a bit watery when using words like "default".

WeWork On Brink Of Default As $95 Million In Interest Payments Skipped -ZeroHedge

WeWork Inc. skipped interest payments totaling $95 million due on Monday on five of its bonds, triggering a 30-day grace period. This comes two months after the struggling co-working start-up warned that "substantial doubt exists" about staying in business and one month after WeWork CEO David Tolley said the company "will seek to negotiate terms with our landlords" for underperforming locations.

"As such, today we entered into the 30-day grace period provided to us under our secured notes' indentures and withheld the associated interest payments," WeWork wrote in a press release on its website on Monday.

A regulatory filing shows the co-working firm withheld $37.3 million of cash and $57.9 million of interest payments on the following notes, all due in 2027:

• 15.000% First Lien Senior Secured PIK Notes due 2027;
• 11.000% Second Lien Senior Secured PIK Notes due 2027;
• 11.000% Second Lien Exchangeable Senior Secured PIK Notes due 2027;
• 12.000% Third Lien Senior Secured PIK Notes due 2027; and
• 12.000% Third Lien Exchangeable Senior Secured PIK Notes due 2027.

The filing continued, "The Company has a 30-day grace period to make the Interest Payments before such non-payment constitutes an 'event of default' with respect to the Notes."

It added: "The Company has the liquidity to make the Interest Payments, and may in the future decide to do so."

If WeWork has enough liquidity to service its debt, why would it miss payments?

Perhaps a conversation the WeWork CEO had with The New York Times can shed some light on this question:

"I believe they will absolutely understand our decision to enter into the grace period," WeWork's interim chief executive, David Tolley, said in an interview. He called the move "typical" as a "precursor to a conversation."

"Skipping an interest payment is not necessary to negotiate with lenders. But it is a move sometimes used by indebted companies to put pressure on lenders to restrike deals under more favorable terms," NYTimes noted. READ MORE

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10.2.23 - Homes Are "Unaffordable"

Gold last traded at $1,827 an ounce. Silver at $21.04 an ounce.

EDITOR'S NOTE: The typical American household struggles to make ends meet these days. And if home-ownership wasn't an already obtained goal, it's being shoved even farther out of reach ... and fast. If very few people can afford to buy, then even fewer people can afford to sell; especially considering a large majority of those people locked in very low interest rates. So what does this all mean? Sadly, rough waters are ahead, especially with other areas of the market faltering and an election coming up. Now is the time to make sure your portfolio is well diversified with assets that perform during troubled times.

Homes Are "Unaffordable" In 99% Of US Counties -ZeroHedge

Authored by Michael Snyder via The Economic Collapse

If you are looking to buy a home right now, I feel so sorry for you. The other day when I wrote that “life in America has never been more unaffordable than it is right now”, some people thought that I was exaggerating. But the truth is that I was not exaggerating one bit. The cost of living has risen to extremely painful levels, and this is particularly true when it comes to housing. Since 2019, the median price of a home in the United States has risen by more than $100,000. And thanks to the Federal Reserve, we are now facing dramatically higher interest rates.

As a result, housing has become extraordinarily unaffordable. In fact, a new report that was just released determined that homes are currently “unaffordable” in 99 percent of U.S. counties…

The typical American cannot afford to buy a home in a growing number of communities across the nation, according to common lending standards.

That’s the main takeaway from a new report from real estate data provider ATTOM. Researchers examined the median home prices last year for roughly 575 U.S. counties and found that home prices in 99% of those areas are beyond the reach of the average income earner, who makes $71,214 a year, according to ATTOM.

In the entire history of our country, we have never seen anything like this before.

A combination of insanely high home prices and suffocatingly high mortgage rates have literally frozen the housing market.

Until something changes, millions of potential buyers and millions of potential sellers will remain sidelined…

Housing experts point to couple trends driving up housing costs. Mortgage rates have topped 7%, adding hundreds of dollars per month to a potential house payment. At the same time, homeowners who locked in at lower mortgage rates during the pandemic have opted not to sell out of fear of having to buy another property at today’s elevated rates, depleting the supply of homes for sale. READ MORE

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9.29.23 - Gov't Shutdown: An illustrated guide

Gold last traded at $1,848 an ounce. Silver at $22.19 an ounce.

EDITOR'S NOTE: A great, to-the-point summary of what next week may look like and what it will mean for us, for government workers and for the economy. Let us hope - for the sake of the country and our economy - this is resolved quickly.

What happens if the government shuts down: An illustrated guide-CNN

click to expand

What is a government shutdown?

A government shutdown happens when Congress doesn’t approve funding for the federal government by the time the new fiscal year starts on October 1. Each year, Congress must pass the 12 appropriation bills that make up the discretionary spending budget and set funding levels for federal agencies.

What happens during a government shutdown?

If lawmakers fail to enact all or some of the appropriation bills, many government operations grind to a halt, resulting in a full or partial government shutdown until Congress acts. However, government functions that are deemed essential will continue.

Each federal agency comes up with a contingency plan that outlines which of its functions will continue during a shutdown and which will stop, as well as how many of its employees will continue working and how many will be furloughed until the shutdown ends.

What it means for you

Because many federal workers are off the job during a government shutdown, many services are stopped or slowed, disturbing the day-to-day life for many Americans.

Notably, Social Security payments to seniors, Americans with disabilities and others would continue to be distributed. The Postal Service will also continue regular service.

Here are some examples of how a shutdown could affect you. SEE MORE

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9.28.23 - Should the possible shutdown concern you?

Gold last traded at $1,865 an ounce. Silver at $22.61 an ounce.

EDITOR'S NOTE: Should investors be worried about this government shutdown? Will this one be worse than the others? Only time will tell but the stakes are much higher this go-around. Now is the time to take defensive action to be on the safe side. This is why Swiss America recommends a portion of your assets be hold in physical assets like precious metals; to weather whatever storms come due to political inaction. If this shutdown comes to pass, it has the potential to be one of the longest, and as Mr. Rickards puts it, "that could do serious damage to an economy that’s already on the edge of recession."

Toward the Brink -Daily Reckoning

by James Rickards

Should market participants be concerned about the possible government shutdown at midnight on Sept. 30?

It’s too soon to answer that question definitively, but it’s not too soon for investors to take some defensive action.

If it does happen, it’ll be different from those that have gone before. Let’s break it all down…

While most of us keep our books and records on a Dec. 31 fiscal year, the U.S. government is different. The U.S. fiscal year runs from Oct. 1 until midnight on Sept. 30.

The fiscal year is dated by the calendar year in which the last day falls.

So the fiscal year beginning on Oct. 1, 2023, is called “Fiscal Year 2024” by the Government Accounting Office (GAO) and the Office of Management and Budget (OMB). Leave it to the government to make things difficult and hard to follow, but that’s how they do it.

That means fiscal year 2023 ends at midnight on Sept. 30, 2023. We’re up against the clock and that’s why you’re hearing so much about a government shutdown right now.

It’s the job of Congress to pass appropriations bills to keep the government open. Under so-called regular order, each major department has its own appropriations bill. So there should be separate bills for Defense, the State Department, the Department of Education and so on.

Each bill should be voted on separately and each bill should pass before Sept. 30 to keep that department and the government as a whole running in the new fiscal year.

But in the real world, the “regular order” process never happens. Typically, the House and Senate and the two parties in each body can’t agree on anything by Sept. 30. READ MORE

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9.27.23 - Cashless Society: "It's Not Coming; It's Already Here"

Gold last traded at $1,875 an ounce. Silver at $22.55 an ounce.

There's a 90% chance of a government shutdown: Goldman Sachs -Yahoo! Finance

It's that time of year again ... government shutdown season. This one seems like an inevitability so now the question is, how long will it last? These threats of shutdowns - and actual shutdowns - do seem to somehow resolve themselves with little fanfare, but that doesn't mean the economy hasn't lost billions while our elected officials play politics.

by Ines Ferré and Ben Werschkul

The chances that the government avoids a shutdown in the next three days are not looking good, according to Goldman Sachs economists.

“A shutdown this year has looked likely for several months, and we now think the odds have risen to 90%,” Jan Hatzius, chief economist and head of global research at Goldman Sachs, wrote in a note to investors.

Hatzius and his team say the most likely scenario is the government will shut down on Oct. 1.

On Tuesday evening, the Senate released what is likely a last-chance deal to avert a closure. The 79-page bill would keep the government open until Nov. 17. It is designed to allow more time for negotiations over a broader spending deal that Congress must pass before the end of the year.

“While there is still a chance that Congress can reach a last-minute deal to extend funding past Sep. 30, there has been little progress made and there is little time left,” wrote Hatzius. “In the seemingly unlikely event Congress passes a short-term extension, we would still expect a shutdown sometime later in Q4.” READ MORE

“It’s Not Coming; It’s Already Here” -Daily Reckoning

The long and protracted War on Cash rages on; but those on the side of solely digital dollars are gaining a frightening amount of ground lately. 'Safety and convenience' is their battle cry, but at what cost? The loss of freedom, privacy and long-term wealth. It's a terrible tradeoff. This is why we recommend a position in gold. A real form of money that has stood the test of time.

by James Rickards

When I talk about the war on cash and a cashless society, some people think I’m exaggerating the threat or they don’t take it seriously.

But I’m not exaggerating the threat. It’s here, it’s growing and it’ll only get worse. Today I’ll show you the latest example.

The proponents of the cashless society cite convenience as a major benefit. Why bother having to tote a bunch of cumbersome cash and coins around when you can just swipe a card or pay with your smartphone?

Besides, they say, cash enables criminal activity on the black market. Cash is the money of crime. And in some respects, they’re right.

Swiping a card or scanning your smartphone is certainly easier than having to get cash from a bank or ATM and lugging it around in your wallet, dealing with change, etc.

If you eliminated cash and replaced it with digital money, it would impact the black market (though they’d figure out a workaround).

Meanwhile, cash is costlier to produce than digital money and unlike with cash, you don’t need to hire a Brinks truck to move digital money around. No more bank robberies! And all those truck drivers and security guards can now learn to code!

You get the point. And that’s why the war on cash has been so successful. Digital money is simply more convenient to use than cash.

And the surest way to lull someone into complacency is to offer a “convenience” that quickly becomes habit and impossible to do without. READ MORE

JPMorgan CEO Jamie Dimon Says This Is the Number One Risk Threatening Global Economy – And It’s Not Inflation - The Daily Hodl

Jamie Dimon is comparing the current American market sentiment to a sugar high and is concerned many are unprepared for what is on the horizon. He advises investors to batten down the hatches and prepare for some hardship ahead.

by Henry Kanapi

JPMorgan chief executive Jamie Dimon says that the global economy is facing a far greater risk than persistent inflation or high interest rates.

In a new interview on CNBC India, Dimon says that people should prepare for higher oil and gas prices as well as higher interest rates.

While Dimon is urging people and businesses to be ready for higher energy costs along with tight monetary policies, he highlights that his number one concern is the current geopolitical situation.

According to Dimon, the war in Ukraine is negatively impacting oil, gas and food prices. He also notes that it is “affecting all global relationships.”

“I think the geopolitical situation is the thing that most concerns me, and we don’t know the effect of that on the economy. Again, I think the humanitarian part – that’s far more important.

I think it’s very important for the future of the free democratic world. We may be at an inflection point for the free democratic world. That’s how seriously I take it…

We have dealt with inflation before, we have dealt with deficits before [and] we have dealt with recessions before. We haven’t really seen something like this pretty much since World War II … There is no playbook.” SEE MORE

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9.26.23 - The SEC is Snooping on All Your Trades

Gold last traded at $1,900 an ounce. Silver at $22.86 an ounce.

EDITOR'S NOTE: The War on Cash is fought on a variety of fronts but the end result is always a loss of liberty and privacy for us all. The SEC's sharing of the data on every market move we make is just the latest strategy. While the tracking should be alarming in and of itself, the threat of this information being open to hacking is of even greater concern. A centralized database to track every American investor is, without question, an unconstitutional data grab; but can it be stopped?

What’s in Your Portfolio? The SEC is Snooping on All Your Trades -MishTalk.com

The SEC is now tracking your stock trades by your Social Security Number. It shares the data with 3,000 outside agencies.

In 2012 the SEC approved a new rule requiring a Consolidated Audit Trail to Monitor and Analyze Trading Activity.

“A consolidated audit trail that accurately tracks orders throughout their lifecycle and identifies the broker-dealers handling them will provide us with an unprecedented ability to effectively oversee the markets we regulate,” said SEC Chairman Mary Schapiro.

The new rule becomes effective 60 days after its publication in the Federal Register. SROs are required to submit the NMS plan to the Commission within 270 days of the rule’s publication in the Federal Register. Once the Commission approves the NMS plan, the SROs are required to report the required data to the central repository within one year, and members of the SROs are required to report within two years. Certain small broker-dealers will have up to three years to report the data.

This ruling was in response to a 2010 flash crash and quietly sat for years. The SEC is now following through.

The scope of the Consolidated Audit Trail, or CAT, a regulation the SEC issued in 2016 but implemented only recently, is breathtaking and unprecedented. In the words of the SEC press release, the regulation instructs regulated financial institutions to identify “every order, cancellation, modification and trade execution for all exchange-listed equities and options across all U.S. markets.” READ MORE

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9.21.23 - 'Demons on the horizon' for stocks

Gold last traded at $1,919 an ounce. Silver at $23.44 an ounce.

EDITOR'S NOTE: Another billionaire sounds the alarm; this time it's Jeffrey Gundlach of DoubleLine Capital. Mr. Gundlach sees trouble ahead on a number of fronts, especially for the dollar. Read on to see his common sense reasoning why a recession is all but guaranteed in the months ahead.

'Bond King' Jeffrey Gundlach warns of 'demons on the horizon' for stocks - and predicts a dollar disaster and recession next year -Yahoo! Finance

by Theron Mohamed

Jeffrey Gundlach issued a slew of warnings about the stock market, the US dollar, and an upcoming recession during the Future Proof conference last week.

The S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite have surged 16% and 31% respectively this year, as investors price in the potential boost to companies from artificial intelligence and future cuts to interest rates. However, they're overlooking "demons on the horizon," Gundlach cautioned.

The billionaire CEO of DoubleLine Capital highlighted signs of a faltering US economy as a key concern. He pointed to a recent wave of corporate layoffs, and consumers feeling the squeeze from record amounts of credit-card debt as red flags. He also noted the chilling effect of higher mortgage rates on the housing market, and the challenge for small businesses of having to refinance their debts at much higher interest rates.

"The economy is definitely weakening," Gundlach said. "I look for one next year, and I think the indicators are getting really convincing in that regard," he said about the prospect of a recession.

The fund manager — whose nickname is the "Bond King" — also argued that economic growth has been shored up this year by a dangerous and unsustainable amount of government spending.

"The economy is only growing because we have a budget deficit that is 8% of GDP," he said. "It's about the same today as the depths of the global financial crisis."

Gundlach underscored that the federal government financed most of its spending at rock-bottom rates. However, the Federal Reserve's war on inflation has seen it hike rates from nearly zero to over 5% since last spring, meaning the government's interest charges on trillions of dollars of debt are poised to balloon. READ MORE

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9.20.23 - Even the Fed is Losing Money

Gold last traded at $1,931 an ounce. Silver at $23.20 an ounce.

Take the Fed forecast with a grain of salt. It has a terrible track record -CNBC

Forecasters are often wrong for a variety of reasons but if anyone should get it right, it should be the Fed. Alas, even with a full-time research team and access to all the data available, they still miss the mark quite often. This is a good reminder to keep your portfolio diversified, no matter what the Fed - or the talking heads - are predicting.

by Bob Pisani

On Wednesday, the Federal Reserve will publish its latest economic forecasts. There will be an intense focus on the Summary of Economic Projections, which is the Fed’s own estimates for GDP growth, the unemployment rate, inflation and the appropriate policy interest rate.

The summary will be released as an addendum to the statement following Wednesday’s Federal Open Market Committee meeting.

Investors will carefully study these projections, and they will likely move the market.

But should you change your investment portfolio based on the Fed’s projections? You probably should not.

The Fed’s poor forecasting record: One example

Larry Swedroe, head of financial and economic research at Buckingham Strategic Wealth, for decades has studied economic forecasts of everyone from stock-picking gurus to the Federal Reserve.

He has this piece of advice: Don’t base your investment decisions on what the Fed says. Or anyone else, for that matter.

Swedroe recently wrote an article where he looked at one simple metric: the Fed’s effort to project its interest rate increases for 2022. READ MORE

Even the Fed’s Losing Money! -Daily Reckoning

Yes, you read that right, the Fed is losing money too. Add that to the looming commercial and residential real estate crash, the ongoing banking crisis, massive consumer credit card debt and a weakening dollar; and we can kiss a soft landing goodbye.

by James Rickards

The financial system is in a slow-motion meltdown. There are many indications that the economy’s in trouble, despite what you’ll hear from the cheerleaders in the mainstream media.

Commercial real estate values are crashing, and the associated loans are going into default. Credit cards are maxed out and borrowers are being punished with 20% or even 30% interest rates (that will double the outstanding balance in three years if you don’t pay it off).

There’s a global dollar shortage, which explains why China is dumping U.S. Treasury securities (to get cash) and why the euro, yen, yuan and sterling are all going down against the dollar.

Meanwhile, investors are bracing for Stage Two of the banking crisis (Stage One consisted of the failures of Silvergate, Silicon Valley, Signature, Credit Suisse and First Republic from March 9 to May 1, 2023).

In fact, I believe the situation is so urgent that I held an emergency event last week to alert my readers about it.

There are plenty of other indicators out there that show expectations of a sharp recession and global financial crisis. Some are very technical in nature, so I won’t get into them here.

So can things get any worse? Actually, yes, they can. READ MORE

The US housing market is headed for the largest sales slowdown since 2011, Fannie Mae says -Yahoo! Finance

Fannie May sees a recession looming as the higher costs of borrowing and soaring inflation send home sales plummeting. Even if the Fed eases rate hikes, the weak labor market and credit crisis will likely keep the housing market soft for quite some time.

by Jennifer Sor

US home sales are headed for the biggest slowdown since 2011, according to Fannie Mae.

The government-sponsored mortgage finance company forecasted total home sales to slump to just 4.8 million this year, marking the slowest sales environment since 2011. That figure will only improve slightly in 2024, with total home sales expected to hit 4.9 million, Fannie Mae economists said.

The slump in sales is partly being influenced by high mortgage rates,with the average rate on the 30-year fixed mortgage rising to 7.18% over the last week, according to Freddie Mac data. That means prospective home buyers are facing the highest cost of borrowing since 2001, which has heavily hindered demand over the past year.

Those dynamics are also taking shape in the backdrop of a weakening US economy, which is poised to enter a slowdown within the first half of next year, Fannie Mae economists predicted. The Fed has aggressively hiked interest rates over the past year to lower inflation, a move experts have warned could drive the economy into a recession. READ MORE

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9.19.23 - Another FDIC-Insured Bank Is Teetering

Gold last traded at $1,931 an ounce. Silver at $23.20 an ounce.

EDITOR'S NOTE: Another bank is on the brink of collapse, a headline that's become all too common this year. Chances are good, more failures await; but why? Uninsured deposits and unrealized losses. Sound familiar?

Another FDIC-Insured Bank Is Teetering, Closing at 27-1/2 Cents Yesterday, Down 96 Percent in a Year -Wall Street on Parade

by Pam Martens and Russ Martens

There may be a lesson here: don’t put the word “Republic” in the name of your bank; don’t hold a lot of uninsured deposits; and don’t have wads of unrealized losses on your investment securities.

If those lessons sound familiar, it’s because they played out in stunning fashion earlier this year when the second, third and fourth largest bank failures in U.S. history occurred.

One of those banks that blew up was First Republic Bank, which was put into FDIC receivership on May 1 and later sold, under much controversy, to the already behemoth JPMorgan Chase, the largest bank in the U.S. (JPMorgan Chase can’t seem to stay away from criminal charges. It thus far has notched five felony counts in its belt and is currently being sued by the U.S. Virgin Islands for “actively participating” in Jeffrey Epstein’s sex-trafficking of minors by providing him with more than $5 million in hard cash over a decade.)

Now, another bank with the word “Republic” in its name is in deep distress. The holding company of the current problem bank is Republic First Bancorp (trading ticker FRBK), whose federally-insured banking unit is Republic Bank.

As of June 30, according to regulatory filings, Republic Bank held $6 billion in assets and had 35 branches in Pennsylvania and New Jersey. More than half of its deposits were uninsured. Its SEC filings are not up-to-date but in its 10-Q (quarterly report) for the period ending September 30, 2022, it had this to say about those uninsured deposits: READ MORE

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9.18.23 - Dalio: Bonds are not a good investment

Gold last traded at $1,933 an ounce. Silver at $23.26 an ounce.

EDITOR'S NOTE: Another billionaire investor, Ray Dalio, is weighing in on the future of our markets; specifically the bond market. He feels bonds are not a good investment today; which is interesting given bonds have long been considered a stable and secure investment vehicle. In his opinion, now is not the time to own debt.

Billionaire investor Ray Dalio sounds the alarm on US debt and says bonds aren't a good long-term investment -Yahoo! Finance

by Filip De Mott

A global bond market that's already overloaded with US debt may see selling pressure that sends rates higher, Bridgewater Associates founder Ray Dalio said.

Speaking at the 10th Milken Institute Asia Summit in Singapore on Thursday, the billionaire investor noted that the US Treasury must sell huge amounts of bonds as federal deficits balloon, adding that the situation is also a world problem.

But if investors aren't receiving a high enough real interest rate, they will sell those bonds, he warned.

"The supply-demand [imbalance] isn't just the amount of new bonds. It's the issue of 'do you choose to sell the bonds?' I personally believe that the bonds longer term are not a good investment," Dalio said.

If selling happens, it forces interest rates to go further up, as the market needs to attract bond buyers. That means monetary authorities would face the difficult task.

"When the interest rates go up, the central bank then has to make a choice: Do they let them go up and have the consequences of that, or do they then print money and buy those bonds? And that has inflationary consequences," Dalio said. "So, we're seeing that dynamic happen now." READ MORE

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9.15.23 - Why Unions Are Rising Up Again

Gold last traded at $1,923 an ounce. Silver at $23.01 an ounce.

EDITOR'S NOTE: We're seeing a surge in our economy, but not a good one; a surge in union strikes. A tight labor market - coupled with inflationary pressures - is driving the demand for higher wages. An increase in costs is not something our already strained economy is in a position to absorb right now.

Actors, UPS, and Now the UAW: Why Unions Are Rising Up Again -Barron's

by Megan Leonhardt

The “summer of strikes” is spilling over into autumn as the United Auto Workers announced targeted work stoppages against the Big Three Detroit automakers after failing to reach new labor contracts.

UAW President Shawn Fain announced Thursday night the UAW would go on strike, initially targeting three facilities: a Ford Motor (ticker: F) plant in Wayne, Mich., a Stellantis (STLA) plant in Toledo, Ohio and a General Motors (GM) plant in Wentzville, Mo. Fain previously said the strike could expand to include additional plants if automakers can’t come to a deal.

About 12,700 of the UAW’s roughly 150,000 auto workers initially took to the picket lines early Friday morning. That added to the roughly 11,500 screenwriters and the 16,000 members of the Screen Actors Guild-American Federation of Television and Radio Artists (SAG-AFTRA) already on strike—not to mention the approximately 1,000 Blue Cross Blue Shield of Michigan employees also represented by the UAW who also opted to walk out this week.

Earlier, UPS narrowly avoided a strike with the International Brotherhood of Teamsters union that represents more than 300,000 full- and part-time workers in July. The parcel delivery giant agreed to a deal that included hefty wage increases for full- and part-time employees, as well as improved working conditions.

The tight labor landscape is playing a major role in spurring recent union actions. The labor market has significantly shifted since prepandemic, providing unions and workers with more leverage. In fact, there were 23 major work stoppages that began in 2022, according to the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. That’s much higher than the average of 16 strikes per year seen over the last decade. READ MORE

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9.14.23 - Is silver an investment bargain right now?

Gold last traded at $1,909 an ounce. Silver at $22.59 an ounce.

EDITOR'S NOTE: The real estate market is facing a major downturn but Robert Kiyosaki says this is good news for investors. He also sees another bargain investment for those looking to park their declining dollars somewhere, and that's physical silver. Kiyosaki cautions against putting money in ETFs as they have counter-party risk; physical metals do not. Call us today to add some silver to your portfolio while prices are still low.

'Airbnb To Lead Real Estate Market Crash': Robert Kiyosaki Issues Dire Warning But Says Crash Is The 'Best Time To Get Rich.' Here's The Biggest Bargain He Sees Now -Yahoo! Finance

Airbnb Inc. is in the spotlight. On Sept. 5, New York City implemented what Airbnb calls a "de facto ban" on the short-term rental platform.

The number of short-term listings on Airbnb in New York City, one of the platform's top markets, has seen a significant decline. And according to "Rich Dad Poor Dad" author Robert Kiyosaki, a major shift in the real estate landscape is on the horizon.

"Airbnb to lead real estate market crash," he said in a recent post on X, formerly Twitter.

While a crash in real estate prices can be devastating for homeowners, Kiyosaki believes that it could be an opportunity for potential buyers.

"If you want a new home your happy days are around the corner. Same for rental property," he wrote. "The best time to get rich is in a crash."

....

In a separate post on X, Kiyosaki wrote, "BIB: Biggest Investment Bargain: Silver still 50% below all-time high, in demand by greenies solar EVs."

The famed author has long been a fan of precious metals like gold and silver, which have been a store of value for thousands of years.

Unlike fiat money, which can be produced in unlimited quantities by central banks, precious metals have an inherent scarcity, making them a valuable hedge against inflation. READ MORE

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9.13.23 - China’s Economy Echoing 2008 Financial Crisis

Gold last traded at $1,909 an ounce. Silver at $22.84 an ounce.

Jamie Dimon warns of risks to US economy: 'We've been spending like drunken sailors' -Fox Business

While many in the media like to rejoice in our 'soft landing', financial experts are saying, "not so fast"; Jamie Dimon is one of them. As any good economist realizes, we don't see the results of fiscal policy shifts right away. Dimon sees the chickens coming home to roost over the next year.

by Megan Henney

JPMorgan Chase CEO Jamie Dimon sounded the alarm over the state of the economy on Monday, warning that the "booming environment" cannot last forever.

Speaking at the Barclays Global Financial Services Conference in New York, Dimon warned of significant headwinds to the economy, including geopolitical tensions, government spending and monetary policy tightening by central banks across the world.

"We've been spending money like drunken sailors around the world, this war in Ukraine is still going on. Those are really big ‘buts,’" he said. "To say the consumer is strong today, meaning you are going to have a booming environment for years, is a huge mistake."

The steady decline in inflation and the surprisingly resilient labor market have raised the specter among many economists of a "soft landing." But Dimon — who last year warned of an "economic hurricane" — remains skeptical that the good times will keep coming.

He cited concerns over the Federal Reserve's quantitative tightening campaign, and an increasing reliance on fiscal deficits, as well as the downstream impact of the Inflation Reduction Act, global remilitarization and greenification of the economy.

Tighter monetary policy works on a lag, meaning that it's often unclear when higher interest rates actually begin to affect the economy. Dimon seemed to allude to that during the question-and-answer session, noting that business results could change drastically in a year. READ MORE

BRICS: China’s Economy Echoing 2008 Financial Crisis of the U.S. -watcher.guru

Is China on the verge of a full scale financial collapse? It seems it very well may be. If China does experience a catastrophic failure, the global repercussions will not be mild.

by Vinod Dsouza

BRICS member China’s economy could be in jeopardy as all factors indicate a financial decline. China’s economy has now reached high debt levels, and government interference in all sectors has strained both small and medium-scale enterprises. In addition, the aging population is worrisome as more citizens claim benefits from health insurance schemes. The Chinese government covers a portion of medical costs for current and retired workers in urban areas.

However, the Chinese boom might soon come to an end as its economy is echoing the 2008 financial crisis of the U.S. The Communist country might experience a full-blown financial crisis that could take years to recover from.

The Chair of Rockefeller International, Ruchir Sharma, told the Financial Times that China’s miracle path no longer exists. Sharma highlighted China’s high debt levels, government interference in all sectors, and the aging population that contributes to the economic decline.

“China is where the U.S. was in late summer of 2008,” he wrote. Sharma predicted that “the next big step for China is a full-blown financial crisis,” that lies ahead of it. He added that the Xi Jinping administration must get things under control to prevent an “even deeper recession.” READ MORE

Gold set to hit $2,500 as dollar thrust appears to fade -zawya.com

More metals experts are joining the chorus for a rise in gold as the dollar continues to falter. As always, gold does its best work when every other investment vehicle is crumbling around it. Its time to shine may be just around the corner.

by Issac John, Khaleej Times

UAE - A breakdown in the dollar, which continues to dominate the gold market, could eventually push gold prices above $2,500 an ounce, according to precious metal analysts.

Gold has outperformed most other major asset classes in the past 12 months as it continued to resist rising interest rates while maintaining its role as a safe bet against inflation, analysts pointed out, predicting a target of $2,500 by the end of next year — more than 26 per cent higher than current levels.

David Neuhauser, founder of Livermore Partners, set a target of $2,500 by the end of 2024. “Much of this has to do with the fact that recessionary forces may take hold beginning later this year and gain steam in 2024.” Neuhauser expects stagflation to persist in the global economy for the next few years as inflation falls to between 3.0 per cent and 5.0 per cent.

Gold tends to perform in periods of uncertainty such as recessions and stagflation due to its status as a reliable store of value, and is often used as a hedge against inflation.

“I’m pretty confident that within a couple of years, we will see $2,500 gold. Any type of recessionary move would be positive for gold,” said Randy Smallwood, CEO of Wheaton Precious Metals, adding that he’s seeing weakness in the Chinese and US economy. READ MORE

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9.12.23 - CPI Inflation Rate Is Heating Up Again

Gold last traded at $1,913 an ounce. Silver at $23.07 an ounce.

EDITOR'S NOTE: CPI inflation figures are moving higher, but it appears the Fed won't be doing anything about it. With ever-increasing debt, rising costs of most major resources and a highly troubled banking system; will anything be able to shift the current trend and make things affordable for US households again?

The CPI Inflation Rate Is Heating Up Again. Here's Why The Fed Will Stay Cool. -Investors.com

by Jed Graham

The consumer price index for August, out Wednesday at 8:30 a.m. ET, is expected to show the headline inflation rate moving higher for the second straight month, fueled by higher gas prices. Yet economists expect a third straight month of tame core CPI inflation, which should keep the Federal Reserve content to forgo further rate hikes and increase the chances of a soft landing.

The S&P 500 fell modestly in Tuesday's stock market action, dipping just below a key technical level as investors awaited the last big economic data point before next week's Fed meeting. Markets see minimal chance of a rate hike, but the CPI data will influence the Fed's policy projections that will be updated next week.

Thursday's retail sales and producer price index reports, which will provide key updates on consumer spending and health care inflation, also could prove important. READ MORE

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9.11.23 - Banking industry faces 'significant downside risks'

Gold last traded at $1,922 an ounce. Silver at $23.08 an ounce.

EDITOR'S NOTE: When it comes to the banking industry, things are not looking up. And the threat is coming from two fronts: depositors continuing to pull funds and put them in safer, more profitable havens and the commercial real estate market continuing to deteriorate, leaving banks holding the note.

Banking industry faces 'significant downside risks': FDIC chair -Yahoo! Finance

by David Hollerith - Senior Reporter

FDIC Chair Martin Gruenberg said Thursday that the US banking industry "continues to face significant downside risks" from inflation and high interest rates, which could cause profitability and credit quality to weaken.

The top regulator issued his warning as the FDIC released a comprehensive look at how thousands of institutions fared during the second quarter, one of the most tumultuous periods for banking since the 2008 financial crisis.

The quarter included the seizure of San Francisco lender First Republic, which was the second-largest bank failure in US history, and wild fluctuations in the stocks of other regional banks. Two other mid-sized lenders, Silicon Valley Bank and Signature Bank, went down during the first quarter.

What the report showed is that deposits declined for the fifth quarter in a row, largely due to the exit of uninsured account holders.

The decline of $98.6 billion, or 0.5%, "moderated substantially" from the $472 billion outflow during the first quarter, but it continued to place pressure on banks to raise their funding costs to keep account holders who are searching for higher yields. That, in turn, ate into a key measure of profitability. READ MORE

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9.8.23 - Will the US Economy 'hit a wall'?

Gold last traded at $1,919 an ounce. Silver at $22.91 an ounce.

EDITOR'S NOTE: Trouble is brewing in the economy and has been for some time. So much so that some believe we may avoid a recession altogether just because we have for so long; but not according to Jeffrey Gundlach. All of the "band-aids" put in place to stanch the bleeding are about to give away. Read on to see the "dangerous cocktail" of reasons why he feels the fat lady is about to sing.

US economy will 'hit a wall' by the spring – and inflation could spike again, warns 'bond king' Jeffrey Gundlach - Business Insider

By Theron Mohamed

The US economy is barreling toward recession as consumers' finances crumble, and inflation could surge again, Jeffrey Gundlach has warned.

"I think the economy is going to hit a wall in the next six or eight months or so, and there's going to be a real shutdown in consumer activity due to all of these interest payments that have to be made," he told Fox Business Thursday.

The billionaire investor and DoubleLine Capital CEO noted that many Americans managed to put money away during the pandemic.

They took advantage of government-aid programs that included mailing stimulus checks to households, and offering emergency grants and loan forgiveness to businesses. All the extra cash boosted the economy and asset prices, stoking historic inflation last year.

However, consumers have virtually exhausted those savings , Gundlach said. They now face a "dangerous cocktail" of inflated living costs, steeper rents, larger interest payments on their credit cards, the resumption of student-loan repayments, and taxes coming due, he continued. READ MORE

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9.7.23 - Global de-dollarization is upon us

Gold last traded at $1,919 an ounce. Silver at $22.97 an ounce.

EDITOR'S NOTE: The de-dollarization push continues as BRICS accepts six new members - adding to the list of countries looking to conduct trade in currencies other than the dollar. What does this mean for you? As Mr. Rickards put it in this article, "For now, get your gold while you still can."

The Dream Is Dead - Daily Reckoning

by James Rickards

The global desire to move away from the dollar as a medium of exchange for international trade in goods and services has gone from a discussion point to a novelty to a looming reality in a remarkably short period of time.

It’s impossible to check headlines without seeing a new story about major trading partners planning to substitute their local currencies (or in the BRICS case, a newly formed currency) for the U.S. dollar in payment channels supporting world trade.

This plan has recently been re-emphasized as the BRICS have agreed formally to admit six new members to the group, including Saudi Arabia.

The importance of the new members is obvious. By adding Saudi Arabia, the BRICS now have two of the three largest oil producers in the world (Russia and Saudi Arabia; the third member of the trio is the United States) inside their tent.

The inclusion of UAE and Iran alongside Saudi Arabia and Russia makes the BRICS a de facto OPEC+ when it comes to dictating oil output and prices.

The BRICS will now include the second, fifth-, 10th-, 11th-, 18th- and 23rd-largest economies in the world, along with five others. The total GDP of the expanded BRICS membership is approximately 30% of global GDP measured on a nominal basis and over 50% of global GDP when measured based on purchasing power parity.

Many Americans are inclined to lament declines in the dollar’s global role. But should they? READ MORE

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9.6.23 - Central bank gold buying remains hot

Gold last traded at $1,917 an ounce. Silver at $23.17 an ounce.

JPMorgan says the biggest risk of de-dollarization isn't a rival currency — it's that the US could lose a key tool it's used to fight past economic crises -Yahoo! Finance

The US dollar seems to be under constant threat from other currencies. JPMorgan provides an interesting perceptive: it is not the loss of the dollar's dominance but rather the loss of the ability to help manage the economy. This could create a serious crack in our economic foundation.

by Filip De Mott

The biggest risk of de-dollarization isn't a rival currency — it's that the US could lose a key tool it's used to fight past economic crises, according to JPMorgan.

According to a note on Tuesday, strategists led by Marko Kolanovic said de-dollarization risks are unlikely to mean emerging powers will suddenly stop using the dollar or replace it with another currency.

Instead, the key de-dollarization risk that Western economies face is mostly related to inflation and their debt burdens, they explained.

"Historically, imported deflation via trade with the global South and East, outsourcing less profitable segments of economy, recycling of trade surpluses into USD assets, and domestic energy independence (US shale growth), were key ingredients to the USD supremacy," JPMorgan said. "Imported deflation and debt demand has allowed Western central banks to successfully navigate every recent economic crisis with a combination of monetary and fiscal measures." READ MORE

Central bank gold buying remains hot in July -Gold.org

When it comes to buying gold, Central Banks continue to amass very large positions in the precious metal. It is no surprise that these banks are positioning their holdings in this centuries old, proven asset that has provided tremendous stability over millennia ... as the banking system continues to crumble.

by Krishan Gopaul

Having reported a return to net buying in June, the latest data shows global central banks continued to add to their gold reserves in July. Central banks reported healthy net purchases of 55t during the month.1 Despite the month-on-month slowdown – owing to the late reporting of a 30t purchase by the Central Bank of Libya in June – the latest data does seem to support our view that the longer-term buying trend remains in place.

Looking at the detailed activity during July, two things are notable: 1) relatively few banks altered their gold holdings in July, and 2) many that did buy/sell did so sizeably.

The People’s Bank of China (PBoC) was once again the largest buyer, adding 23t during the month and cementing its place as the largest buyer year-to-date (126t). Since it began regularly reporting gold buying in November, the PBoC has bought a net 188t, lifting its total gold reserves to 2,136t (4% of total reserves). The National Bank of Poland (NBP) was a close second, increasing its gold reserves by 22t during July, boosting its total gold holdings to 299t. This is the fourth consecutive month of net buying, with purchases over this period totalling 71t – just 29t shy of the NBP’s stated aim of increasing its gold reserves by 100t. READ MORE

U.S. Regional Banks are on the Verge of collapsing and it's all planned. -The Trading Chief

Bank closures has become an all too familiar tune these days. These closures have restricted depositors access to their own funds and, ultimately, will have cost taxpayers a pretty penny. A question often asked is, could this have been prevented? Well now it seems it may have all been planned!

The collapse of Silicon Valley Bank and the US regional banking crisis that followed earlier this year had major economic and regulatory repercussions for lenders across the globe, some of which may be felt for years to come. The collapse of Silicon Valley Bank and Signature Bank in March triggered massive deposit withdrawals and placed renewed focus on lenders' financial health. More recently, the sector was hit by ratings downgrades when S&P last month cut credit ratings and revised its outlook for multiple U.S. banks, following a similar move by Moody's.

In its report on August 8th, Moody's also highlighted implications for banks of factors that aren't a direct result of Fed moves, including last year's UK gilt market chaos that pushed long-dated US Treasurys higher and weighed on banks.

With a recession still in the cards, the macroeconomic outlook in general puts pressure on the US banking sector. Funding and profitability remain more difficult than years past, and their large holdings of fixed-rate assets isn't ideal. READ MORE

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9.5.23 - Why Nick Colas Is Bullish On Gold

Gold last traded at $1,926 an ounce. Silver at $23.54 an ounce.

EDITOR'S NOTE: As nations around the world turn their attention to gold, many investors - and investment advisors - are highlighting the yellow metal's importance in any well-balanced portfolio. Below, Nick Colas - former Credit Suisse analyst and SAC Capital portfolio manager - shares his thoughts, through his own family's history, on why gold is set to shine.

Why Nick Colas Is Bullish On Gold -Zero Hedge

Nick Colas is bullish on gold.

The former Credit Suisse analyst and SAC Capital portfolio manager who founded DataTrek Research in 2017 has started offering his thoughts via YouTube, where he's opined on topics such as his 3 cardinal rules of investing, how to use the VIX to trade smarter, and the best way to value Tesla.

On Tuesday, Colas discussed where he thinks gold is headed...

In 1960, Colas's family came to America just after the Cuban revolution with $200 in a suitcase. After scrambling to land on their feet, his father began buying gold coins on business trips to Europe when it was $35 to $37 an ounce.

"He viewed gold as a long-term store of value," Colas said of his father. Then, "in 1971 President Nixon took the U.S. dollar off the gold standard and prices began to rise."

"In the late 70s inflation really took over as a big investment theme and the price of gold was going up even further," he continues.

In 1974, gold soared from its $35 valuation in the 1960s to $600 an ounce by 1980.

Gold vs. Equities: The Unspoken Truth

While the S&P 500 has grown roughly 13% per year over the last decade, when one looks outside US borders, gold's 5% annual compounded growth begins to look quite impressive. Colas notes that the MSCI All-Country Ex-U.S. index and Chinese equities have shown a mere 5% and 3% growth, respectively. So if your portfolio isn't U.S.-centric, gold not just holds its own but shines. READ MORE AND WATCH VIDEO

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9.1.23 - US Treasury Direct Freezing Customer Accounts

Gold last traded at $1,940 an ounce. Silver at $24.17 an ounce.

EDITOR'S NOTE: When it comes to freezing customers accounts, it seems some banks are taking a, "shoot first, aim second" approach. Another good reason to buy gold!

The US Treasury Direct is Now Freezing Customer Accounts-FrankNez.com

The US Treasury Direct (TreasuryDirect) is now freezing customer accounts, leaving users without access to their funds from weeks to months.

Tammarra Johnson reported to FrankNez that TreasuryDirect has frozen her account ever since she made a deposit going all the way back to April.

Users can purchase securities directly from the US Treasury with TreasuryDirect.

However, big financial institutions have access to TreasuryDirect’s auction house which means they have priority over individual customers.

Finance Strategists reports that’s securities purchased through TreasuryDirect cannot be sold in the secondary market before they mature.

“This lack of liquidity could be a disadvantage for investors who may need to access their investment capital before the securities’ maturity.”

But Johnson’s issue is a little different – TreasuryDirect froze the account after a deposit from a settlement. READ MORE

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8.31.23 - Home Purchases Crash 45% ... Biggest Drop Since 2008

Gold last traded at $1,940 an ounce. Silver at $24.42 an ounce.

EDITOR'S NOTE: Commercial real estate was first domino to start falling and it appears residential real estate is right on its heels. Can an economy already on the verge of collapse take any more blows? Add this to the rapid strengthening of the BRICS nations and we have an unholy recipe for financial disaster in the West.

AirBnB Bubble Bursts: Investor Home Purchases Crash 45% In Biggest Drop Since 2008 -ZeroHedge

by Tyler Durden

Earlier this week, we wrote that the bursting of the AirBnB bubble will also pop the broader housing bubble, which has shown remarkable resilience in the face of the highest interest rates since Volcker, largely the result of a staggering divergence between effective mortgage rates (since almost everyone refinanced into a 30Y mortgage when rates were at record lows a few years back and is locked into a nice, low rate for a long, long time... or until they sell) and current 30Y mortgages, which at 7.5% nobody can afford.

So back to the coming AirBnB fiasco, today the real estate experts at RedFin wrote that investor home purchases fell 45% from a year earlier in the second quarter, outpacing the 31% drop in overall home sales. That’s the biggest decline since 2008 with the exception of the quarter before, when they dropped 48%.

The decline comes as this year’s relatively cool housing and rental markets makes investing in homes less attractive than it was during the pandemic-driven homebuying frenzy of 2021 and early 2022, when record numbers of AirBnB were purchased as hotel and lodging surrogates (Redfin defines an investor as any institution or business that purchases residential real estate).

The drop in purchases has brought the total number of homes bought by investors below pre-pandemic levels, which is a major concern for a market where investors remained the last remaining support pillar now that most average Americans seeking to buy their first home are simply unable to afford it and are stuck renting indefinitely.

Real estate investors bought roughly 50,000 U.S. homes in the second quarter, the fewest of any second quarter in seven years, with the exception of the start of the pandemic. READ MORE

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8.30.23 - Signs of Collapse

Gold last traded at $1,943 an ounce. Silver at $24.61 an ounce.

Why Cash Seizures Backfire On Oklahoma Police -RealClearWire

We are all familiar with the uniquely American adage of "innocent until proven guilty"; but this doesn't seem to apply if the government or law enforcement subjectively feels you are carrying too much cash. These scenarios are increasing in frequency with little explanation as to why.

By Dan Alban & Daryl James

Police recruits join the force to help others and fight crime. Research confirms it. But priorities changed when sheriff’s deputies detained Eh Wah in Muskogee County, Oklahoma, and found more than $53,000 in his car.

Law enforcement training kicked in, and the purpose of the traffic stop switched from public safety to raising revenue. The deputies seized the cash and spent the next six hours interrogating Eh Wah, looking for any excuse to justify civil forfeiture, a process that allows the government to take and keep cash, cars and other assets without a criminal conviction.

Oklahoma agencies normally keep quiet about civil forfeiture, which is why the state ranks among the worst in the nation for civil forfeiture transparency. Oklahoma publishes no statewide reports, conducts no regular audits, and tracks only limited metrics.

The silence is strategic. The more people learn about civil forfeiture, the less they like it. But Oklahoma police and prosecutors have voiced opposition in recent weeks to H.R. 1525, the Fifth Amendment Integrity Restoration Act (FAIR), a bill that would reform federal civil forfeiture. READ MORE

FedEx, UPS both see PLUMMETING shipping volume as economy nears COLLAPSE -Natural News

The latest blow to the domestic economy is a struggling cargo market. Is this significant decline in transit demand a sign of graver things to come? If consumption goes down, other areas are bound to follow suit.

by Ethan Huff

The cargo market is imploding as shipping giants UPS and FedEx report precipitously declining package transit demand.

We know that the number of package flights operated by both FedEx Express and UPS "significantly declined month over month in July," according to Yahoo! Finance.

Since the spring of 2022, the overall cargo market has been waning. And the shipping industry's response thus far has been to impose new efficiency initiatives to try to lower costs and accommodate smaller express volumes.

Compared to the month of June, FedEx flew 9 percent fewer domestic flights in July. Year-over-year flight activity at the company was down 14 percent, according to investment bank Morgan Stanley.

From June to July, year-over-year declines in package volumes at UPS accelerated to 13 percent, up from 10 percent in June, while flight activity in May and June, comparatively, remained relatively stable. READ MORE

'We are buyers of gold on weakness': Yellow metal appears resilient after surge in real rates, says Morgan Stanley -MarketWatch

As one might expect, Morgan Stanley has a watchful eye on the economy and when it comes to gold, they love what they see. They cite gold's recent resiliency amidst interest rate volatility as proof of its staying power and think it presents a great price point of entry for investors. ‘We are buyers of gold on weakness’: Yellow metal appears resilient after surge in real rates, says Morgan Stanley

by Christine Idzelis

Gold appears resilient amid the recent surge in real interest rates, presenting a buying opportunity over the intermediate term, according to Morgan Stanley’s wealth-management business.

“Like equities, which have continued to shrug off the negative implications of rising real rates, gold GC00, 0.99%, which moves inversely to real rates and in turn to the U.S. dollar DXY, has remained extremely resilient,” said Lisa Shalett, chief investment officer at Morgan Stanley Wealth Management, in a note Monday.

“Regarding the intermediate outlook, we are buyers of gold on weakness or declines in rates,” she wrote.

Real rates, which adjust for inflation, have recently jumped. While that eroded equity valuations this month, the U.S. stock market remains solidly higher for the year to date.

“The surge in real rates has been a multifactor move likely to force investors to contemplate valuation risks of a ‘higher-for-longer’ rate regime,” said Shalett. “The 10-year real rate rose above 2.0% last week, its highest since the Great Financial Crisis.” READ MORE

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8.29.23 - Gold resilient after surge in real rates

Gold last traded at $1,937 an ounce. Silver at $24.73 an ounce.

EDITOR'S NOTE: As one might expect, Morgan Stanley has a watchful eye on the economy and when it comes to gold, they love what they see. They cite gold's recent resiliency amidst interest rate volatility as proof of its staying power and think it presents a great price point of entry for investors.

'We are buyers of gold on weakness': Yellow metal appears resilient after surge in real rates, says Morgan Stanley -MarketWatch

by Christine Idzelis

Gold appears resilient amid the recent surge in real interest rates, presenting a buying opportunity over the intermediate term, according to Morgan Stanley’s wealth-management business.

“Like equities, which have continued to shrug off the negative implications of rising real rates, gold GC00, 0.99%, which moves inversely to real rates and in turn to the U.S. dollar DXY, has remained extremely resilient,” said Lisa Shalett, chief investment officer at Morgan Stanley Wealth Management, in a note Monday.

“Regarding the intermediate outlook, we are buyers of gold on weakness or declines in rates,” she wrote.

Real rates, which adjust for inflation, have recently jumped. While that eroded equity valuations this month, the U.S. stock market remains solidly higher for the year to date.

“The surge in real rates has been a multifactor move likely to force investors to contemplate valuation risks of a ‘higher-for-longer’ rate regime,” said Shalett. “The 10-year real rate rose above 2.0% last week, its highest since the Great Financial Crisis.” READ MORE

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8.28.23 - BBB Reports Wave of Complaints About Frozen Accounts

Gold last traded at $1,920 an ounce. Silver at $24.23 an ounce.

EDITOR'S NOTE: For years, Swiss America has been offering a report detailing what we feel is a secret war on your cash. There are many different ways in which this war is being waged. This article is an example of yet another tactic: US citizens - some of whom are retirees - are being denied access to their bank accounts, preventing them from being able to pay for basic necessities.

BBB Reports New Wave of Complaints About Frozen Bank Accounts - FrankNez.com

by Frank Nez

The Better Business Bureau (BBB) is now reporting a new wave of customer complaints about frozen accounts at a popular US bank.

For the second week in a row, a group of customers at the Walmart and TurboTax-linked Green Dot Bank have said they are completely unable to access their funds, reports NBC News.

The bank, which says it has 33 million customers, is being scrutinized by the Better Business Bureau over a “pattern and influx of complaints against Green Dot”.

Daily reports are coming in from Ohio, Arizona, D.C., Minnesota, Michigan, New York, Texas, California, Pennsylvania, Missouri, and many other states.

Some of these frozen accounts include retiree accounts, like Beth Williams, 78, who told FrankNez she has been unable to gain access to her WMC/Green account for 20 days now. READ MORE

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8.25.23 - Credit card delinquencies on the upswing

Gold last traded at $1,914 an ounce. Silver at $24.22 an ounce.

EDITOR'S NOTE: Just when we thought small and medium banks had seen the last of the crushing blows, rising credit card delinquencies start adding even more pressure. And with interest rates continuing to soar, this won't end well. Is this yet another portent of collapse?

Credit card delinquencies are on the upswing - Fox Business

By Megan Henney

A growing number of Americans are falling behind on their monthly credit card payments, a trend that may be a harbinger of economic troubles ahead, according to a new report from Wells Fargo.

Findings from the bank indicate that credit card delinquencies are surging among commercial banks – particularly at small lenders. In fact, late credit card payments at banks that are outside the top 100 in asset size recently surged to a record high.

Those delinquencies raise the pressure on small- and medium-sized banks, which are already grappling with tightening credit conditions in the wake of three major bank failures earlier this year.

"The economy still has a cash cushion, but many consumers are exhausting their credit, while income growth has slowed sharply," the Wells Fargo strategists wrote in the note. "Our outlook remains for a short, moderate recession and then recovery for most of 2024 and likely into 2025."

The dual increase in credit card usage and delinquency rates is particularly concerning because interest rates are astronomically high right now. The average credit card annual percentage rate, or APR, hit a new record of 20.63% last week, according to a Bankrate database that goes back to 1985. The previous record was 19% in July 1991. READ MORE

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8.24.23 - Money Managers Say They’ll Stick With Gold

Gold last traded at $1,894 an ounce. Silver at $23.33 an ounce.

EDITOR'S NOTE: Gold has long been a hedge against financial uncertainty and instability. With the current global economic situation, gold's upside potential is beginning to shine. Now is the time for all of us to make sure our investment portfolios are diversified with a position in gold. Contact your Swiss America representative today to find out how.

Investors Say They’ll Stick With Gold as Fed Cycle Nears End -Yahoo! Finance

by Sybilla Gross

(Bloomberg) -- Gold isn’t losing its allure, according to a dozen money managers who all told Bloomberg News they expect to maintain or raise their exposure to the precious metal in the coming 12 months.

Bullion has stumbled in recent weeks in the face of multiple headwinds from surging real yields to a stronger US dollar and the prospect of US rates staying higher for longer. The survey of investors — from sovereign wealth managers to hedge funds — offered some modest optimism for price prospects into 2024.

None of the respondents said they would cut their exposure to gold in the immediate 12 months, and five of them said they expected to boost their allocations. More than two thirds of them see prices rising, and five expect a clear all-time high. The poll was conducted between Aug. 10 and Aug. 22.

There’s still obvious uncertainty around when the Federal Reserve will end the bank’s tightening cycle, which would be an important positive for non-interest bearing gold. Global central banks continue to grapple with stubborn inflation, and the US labor market has remained surprisingly resilient in the face of aggressive monetary tightening. READ MORE

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8.23.23 - De-dollarization "Irreversible"

Gold last traded at $1,894 an ounce. Silver at $23.33 an ounce.

5 New Countries Expected To Join BRICS -Watcher.Guru

Five new countries are set to join BRICS with the list of applicants growing daily. The head of the New Development Bank confirms they are accepting members based on geopolitical location which sure sounds like something someone staging a takeover might say; that takeover being the dethroning of the dollar.

by Vinod Dsouza

The BRICS bank commonly called the ‘New Development Bank’ (NDB) confirmed that it has started reviewing applications from countries that have formally applied to join the alliance. The head of NDB, Dilma Rousseff, said that the bank is reviewing applications sent from 15 countries. However, she did not name the applicant countries but confirmed that BRICS’ priority is to diversify the geographical location.

Rousseff’s statements hint that the BRICS bloc is looking to induct countries from all corners of the world. NDB might not specifically stick to one location or continent and aims to be a diverse group after expansion. BRICS is an acronym for Brazil, Russia, India, China, and South Africa. READ MORE

De-dollarization "Irreversible" - Putin Tells BRICS Summit In Remote Address -ZeroHedge

Putin would love nothing more than to see the dollar dethroned; and he's becoming more vocal about it as he gains the necessary support of those who may help his dream come true.

by Tyler Durden

In their inaugural day 'family photo', BRICS leaders posed without Russia's President Putin, as FM Lavrov took his place given the ICC arrest warrant and Rome Statute would require the South African government to seek his arrest.

Putin addressed the summit remotely, and emphasized in the Russian-language speech that de-dollarization is "gaining momentum". He said the dollar's receding global centrality is an "objective and irreversible" process. As expected he struck an optimistic tone about the bloc's future, also at a moment China's XI is urging BRICS to become a geopolitical rival to the G7: READ MORE

Americans Are More Afraid Of Going Broke Than Dying — Reports Indicate Financial Insecurity Is Becoming A Harsh Reality -Yahoo! Finance

This headline says it all, a sad reality here in the US. Some American households are faced with financial strains they believe are more frightening than death!

by Jeannine Mancini

A recent survey conducted by life insurance company Allianz reveals a significant concern among Americans regarding financial stability in their later years. According to the survey results, 61% of respondents are more afraid of depleting their savings during retirement than dying.

Allianz conducted its study by collecting information from a group of 1,000 middle-class Americans ages 25 and older. The study defined the middle class as people with investable assets of $150,000 or more or annual incomes of $50,000 if they were single and $75,000 if they were married. The study's findings highlighted a significant observation: While death is an unavoidable aspect of life, the fear of depleting one's financial resources in old age strikes a chord with a substantial number of people.

The concern over outliving your financial means is a driving force behind the importance of Social Security, a program designed to provide an inflation-adjusted lifetime annuity that ensures financial stability in retirement. READ MORE

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8.22.23 - Will the US Be Forced To Embrace Gold?

Gold last traded at $1,894 an ounce. Silver at $23.33 an ounce.

EDITOR'S NOTE: Many nations around the world have been beefing up their gold reserves for years. BRICS plans to back their new currency with gold. Seemingly the only country late to this game is the United States. According to some, this could prove to be quite detrimental to our nation.

The US Will Be Forced To Embrace Gold... Or Become Isolated -ZeroHedge

Authored by Patrick Barron via The Mises Institute

Dollar Hegemony Is Ending Due to Geopolitical Changes

Since the Bretton Woods Agreement in 1944, the dollar has been the world’s preferred reserve currency - the major trading nations of the world were willing to hold dollars in vast amounts to satisfy their need for a readily accepted worldwide payment medium. Even when, in 1971, the United States violated its solemn promise to redeem its dollars for gold at thirty-five dollars per ounce, nations were still willing to hold dollars.

In the mid-2010s, I was certain that Germany would abandon the euro and reinstate the deutsche mark. It was clear, especially to some German central bankers, that Germany was being cheated by the European Central Bank. Germany’s TARGET2 surplus represented a vast excess of German exports to other European Union members, who were pledging near-worthless government and corporate bonds in exchange for newly printed euros from the European Central Bank. These bonds would never be redeemed for anything of real value; therefore, it would be simple rational self-interest for Germany to quit the charade.

I predicted that such an action would cause the eurozone to collapse, make Germany’s deutsche mark the preferred unit of trade in Europe, and possibly threaten the dollar for worldwide reserve dominance. Obviously, this never happened. Why? READ MORE

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8.21.23 - 2008 Revisited?

Gold last traded at $1,894 an ounce. Silver at $23.33 an ounce.

EDITOR'S NOTE: Are we about to see a repeat of 2008? Commercial real estate is eroding, residential real estate is right on its heels. As rates keep rising so do delinquencies and yet the Fed keeps on moving the mark ever upward. Buckle up, it's going to be a bumpy ride.

Brace Yourselves, Because What They Have Planned Is Going To Absolutely Devastate The US Economy -ZeroHedge

Authored by Michael Snyder via The Economic Collapse blog

Do you remember what happened in 2008? Many people believe that another historic financial disaster is coming and that it will absolutely devastate the U.S. economy. Earlier this week, I wrote about an investor named Michael Burry that has actually bet 1.6 billion dollars that the stock market is going to crash. He made all the right moves in 2008, and he fully intends to be proven right once again in 2023. Of course current conditions definitely resemble 2008 in so many ways. The residential housing market is so dead right now, and commercial real estate prices are plummeting at a very frightening pace. Unfortunately, officials at the Federal Reserve are making it quite clear that they are not done strangling the economy.

This week, mortgage rates jumped above the 7 percent mark to the highest level that we have seen in more than 20 years…

Mortgage rates surpassed 7% this week, hitting the highest level in more than two decades.

The average rate on the popular 30-year fixed mortgage increased to 7.09% this week, up from 6.96% the week prior, according to Freddie Mac’s release on Thursday. That’s the highest point since the first week of April 2002 and marks just the third time rates have exceeded 7% since then. The last times were in October and November of last year, when the rate reached 7.08%.

Needless to say, high mortgage rates have been crippling the housing market in recent months.

At the midpoint of this year, existing home sales were down a whopping 18.9 percent from the same time in 2022…

Total existing-home sales – completed transactions that include single-family homes, townhomes, condominiums and co-ops – receded 3.3% from May to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 4.16 million in June. Year-over-year, sales fell 18.9% (down from 5.13 million in June 2022). READ MORE

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8.18.23 - The 'G7 of the East'

Gold last traded at $1,888 an ounce. Silver at $22.67 an ounce.

EDITOR'S NOTE: This article outlines the long, calculated move out of US dollars into gold by the East. These small but significant moves have been happening for years creating the proverbial frog in the pot: we don't realize the water is boiling yet, but it's only a matter of time until it does.

Gold and the ‘G7 of the East’ – Richard Mills -Ahead of the Herd

The dollar is the most important unit of account for international trade, the main medium of exchange for settling international transactions, and the store of value for central banks.

Lately though, “de-dollarization” is being pursued by countries with agendas at odds with the US, including Russia, China, Saudi Arabia and Iran.

As the target of US economic sanctions (for annexing Crimea, interfering in its election, and invading Ukraine), Russia sees diversification from the dollar and into gold and other currencies, as a way of skirting trade restrictions.

In 2021, China trimmed its holdings of US Treasuries for four straight months, in what analysts called a move to prevent potential adverse impact from escalating China-US tensions.

China actually started to move away from the dollar in 2014, agreeing with Brazil on a $29 billion currency swap to promote the Chinese yuan as a reserve currency. The Chinese and Russian central banks signed an agreement on yuan-rouble swaps to double trade between the two countries. The $150 billion deal is a way for Russia to move away from US dollar-dominated settlements.

A few years ago China came up with a new crude oil futures contract, priced in yuan and convertible into gold. The Shanghai-based contract allows oil exporters like Russia and Iran to dodge US sanctions against them by trading oil in yuan rather than US dollars. READ MORE

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8.17.23 - Is the dollar being dethroned?

Gold last traded at $1,888 an ounce. Silver at $22.67 an ounce.

EDITOR'S NOTE: Talk of the dollar being replaced is no longer just talk, it has become a reality. India just placed its first oil purchase in rupees rather than dollars. Read on to find out what this might mean for the US dollar.

Is the dollar being dethroned? India just bought 1M barrels of oil from the UAE using rupees instead of USD for the first time — why this could spell doom for the greenback -Yahoo! Finance

by Bethan Moorcraft

India and the United Arab Emirates (UAE) have officially started trading with each other in their local currencies.

The Indian government announced on Monday that the country’s leading petroleum refiner, Indian Oil Corp., used the local rupee to buy one million barrels of oil from the Abu Dhabi National Oil Company — not the U.S. dollar.

This monumental transaction follows the sale of 25kg of gold from a UAE gold exporter to a buyer in India for around 128.4 million rupees ($1.54 million), according to Reuters.

So, what could all this mean for the U.S. dollar on the world stage?

Last year, India’s central bank revealed a new framework for settling global trade in rupees — an idea that came into fruition last month, when India is the world’s third biggest oil importer and consumer signed two agreements with the UAE.

First, the two giants agreed to settle trade in their local currencies — in an effort to cut transaction costs and eliminate dollar conversions. They also agreed to set up a real-time payment link to simplify cross-border money transfers.

The agreements will enable “seamless cross-border transactions and payments, and foster greater economic cooperation,” the Reserve Bank of India explained in a weekend statement. READ MORE

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8.16.23 - American Households spending $709 More a Month

Gold last traded at $1,892 an ounce. Silver at $22.42 an ounce.

CNBC Daily Open: More trouble ahead for U.S. banks -CNBC

CNBC is calling for some tough days ahead for our banks...as if we haven't already been through enough. They cite several factors that will likely contribute to more banking difficulties and explain why.

by Yeo Boon Ping

Beset by worries
Major U.S. indexes tumbled, weighed down by losses in financial stocks and worries over China’s faltering economy. Asia-Pacific markets followed Wall Street and fell Wednesday. Most regional indexes lost at least 1%. A silver lining: Japanese business’ sentiment climbed in July, alongside the country’s stronger-than-expected economic growth.

Potential banking downgrade
Fitch Ratings warned it may downgrade the U.S. banking industry’s credit rating from AA- to A+. Since individual banks cannot be rated higher than the industry, major banks like JPMorgan Chase and Bank of America would be cut to an A+ rating — with a trickle-down effect for smaller banks — if the downgrades happens. Fitch’s warning comes as Moody’s downgraded 10 banks last week. READ MORE

Inflation Forces Typical American Household to Spend $709 More per Month Than 2 Years Ago -The Epoch Times

As the inflation battle rages on, the real devil is in the details; one of which is the actual financial toll it has taken on US families. A typical household is having to spend over $700 more a month than they did just two years ago.

by Tom Ozimek

Moody's Analytics chief economist, Mark Zandi, has calculated that the typical American household is spending a whopping $709 more per month than it was two years ago because of high inflation.

Mr. Zandi's calculations came in a post on X, formerly known as Twitter, that was remarking on the latest government data on inflation, the Consumer Price Index (CPI).

Inflation, as measured by CPI, came in at 3.2 percent in year-over-year terms in July, up from 3 percent in June and the first increase in the annualized pace of inflation in about a year.

While that's down from the 9.1 percent peak in June 2022, many consumers continue to reel from the persistently elevated price pressures of the past few years.

"The high inflation of the past two-plus years has done lots of economic damage. Due to the high inflation, the typical household spent $202 more in a July than they did a year ago to buy the same goods and services. And they spent $709 more than they did two years ago," Mr. Zandi wrote in his post. READ MORE

BRICS Developing New Payment System To End Reliance on the U.S. Dollar -Watcher.Guru

The BRICS world is pulling no punches when it comes to what they foresee happening to the US dollar, and it's being done with intent. They are looking to end the world dominance of the US dollar. The number of nations jumping on board is growing by the day which spells nothing but trouble for the greenback.

by Vinod Dsouza

Russian diplomat Roman Babushkin confirmed that BRICS is developing a new payment system to end reliance on the U.S. dollar. The new payment mechanism will use local currencies for cross-border transactions and mutual settlements among BRICS members. The development aligns with the changing global dynamics and fosters the growth of the BRICS member’s respective local currencies.

Babushkin also refuted Brazilian President Lula de Silva’s comments about forming a new BRICS currency to challenge the U.S. dollar. The Russian diplomat admitted that creating a new currency comes with a lot of complexities, and the bloc is not prepared for the drastic development. The formation of the BRICS currency is challenging as it involves intricacies and is difficult to translate into reality.

“A BRICS payment instrument based on the currency basket would help to carry out mutual settlements without any reliance on the US dollar,” he said. However, he cautioned that creating a new currency needs more work and research, and the alliance is not prepared for it yet. “These ideas demonstrate new tendencies; however, it’s clear that a lot of aspects require in-depth study,” he said. READ MORE

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8.15.23 - The Hangover of our Drunken Sailors

Gold last traded at $1,902 an ounce. Silver at $22.52 an ounce.

EDITOR'S NOTE: Foreclosures, bankruptcies, delinquencies and collections! Oh my! Not a pretty forecast. Here's what we can expect ...

Consumer Foreclosures, Bankruptcies, Delinquencies, and Collections: Checking on the Hangover of our Drunken Sailors- Wolf Street

By Wolf Richter

Our Drunken Sailors have been out there spending money, and some of it comes from their surging income that has been outrunning inflation finally this year, and they’re spending money from their investment gains and from surging interest income from CDs, money market funds, Treasury bills, and savings accounts. And some are spending money they’ve borrowed. And our Drunken Sailors have borrowed heavily in recent years to buy homes at fabulous prices. So now it’s time to check in on them, to see how their credit is holding up under these conditions.

The number of consumers with foreclosures edged up to 38,840 in Q2, according to data from the New York Fed’s Household Debt and Credit Report. But that was down by about 45% from the Good Times before the pandemic in 2017-2019, and down by 75% from the Good Times in 2003-2004 when the housing market was approaching the peak of the prior housing bubble.

The fiscal and monetary excesses during the pandemic, the forbearance programs, and outright foreclosure bans reduced foreclosures to near zero. And now there’s the slow return to the Good Times normal. This combination is creating a lot of these frying-pan charts: READ MORE

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8.14.23 - The US is facing a debt storm

Gold last traded at $1,907 an ounce. Silver at $22.57 an ounce.

EDITOR'S NOTE: A debt storm is coming; which spells more trouble for faltering banks. Check out these charts ...

The US is facing a debt storm. Here's 5 charts that show trouble is brewing. -Business Insider

by Jennifer Sor

A storm of public and private debt is brewing in the US – and the troubles are already beginning to show on the surface as loans pile up and borrower confidence falters.

At a broad level, Fitch Ratings' downgrade of the US credit rating and Moody's downgrade of 10 US banks this summer points to issues for both US sovereign credit (political polarization hampering the US's ability to meet debt obligations) and debt originated out of the banking sector (structural pressures stemming from tighter credit conditions and Fed policy).

But there are more granular problems mounting across debt markets as well, as both private and public sectors face a drastically different environment than they did in the previous decade when interest rates were at historic lows coming out of the 2008 crisis. If low rates spurred the sugar rush of heavy borrowing, rising interest rates may be setting the stage for the sugar crash.

This was on full display earlier this year as Silicon Valley Bank imploded, driven by mismanagement of its balance sheet which was weighed down by a bond portfolio that was rapidly depreciating as interest rates climbed. SVB, Signature Bank, and First Republic all fell in quick succession.

The fallout from that event was relatively contained, but that hasn't stopped market pundits and investing icons from sounding the alarm on high debt levels in the era of rising rates. Hedge fund legend Ray Dalio and top economist Nouriel Roubini are among those who have warned a full-blown debt crisis could be on the way. READ MORE

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8.11.23 - Gold prices to breach all-time highs?

Gold last traded at $1,913 an ounce. Silver at $22.65 an ounce.

EDITOR'S NOTE: Gold price at $2,500?! According to CNBC, there's a good chance we may see it. This is yet another reflection of our current financial and economic situation. The time to get your position in gold should be now!

Gold prices to breach all-time highs? Some expect bullion to hit $2,500 -CNBC

by Lee Ying Shan

Gold prices are on track to rally to all-time highs in 2024 on the back of tapering interest rates, and looming recessionary fears that elevate its role as a safe haven asset.

Spot gold prices hit a record intraday high of $2,072.5 on Aug. 7, 2020, according to data from Refinitiv. Analysts who spoke to CNBC say they could surpass that level and push beyond the record.

“I do see gold move above $2,100 in late 2023, early 2024 as a trading level,” said TD Securities’ managing director and global head of commodity strategy, Bart Melek, attributing his optimism to a potential pause in the U.S. Federal Reserve tightening cycle.

“I am positive on gold as I believe that the Fed will tilt policy away from its current restrictive mode. This I believe will happen before the 2% inflation target is reached,” Melek told CNBC in an email. READ MORE

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8.10.23 - Banks Hit with $549 Million in Penalties

Gold last traded at $1,920 an ounce. Silver at $22.83 an ounce.

EDITOR'S NOTE: Banks have once again been caught violating SEC regulations and fined accordingly. This time to the the tune of over $500 million. At this point, it's pretty clear that the banks are looking out for themselves first and their depositors last. These fines are just the cost of doing business these days. But with the entire system under tremendous strain, can they really afford to keep this up?

Banks Now Hit with Whopping $549 Million in Penalties -Frank Nez

Banks have now been hit with a whopping $549 million in penalties by the SEC for failing to maintain electronic records of employee communications.

U.S. regulators on Tuesday announced a combined $549 million in penalties against Wells Fargo and 10 other smaller or non-U.S. firms.

The Securities and Exchange Commission disclosed charges and $289 million in fines against 11 firms for “widespread and longstanding failures” in record-keeping, while the Commodity Futures Trading Commission also said it fined four banks a total of $260 million for failing to maintain records required by the agency.

“It was regulators’ latest effort to stamp out the pervasive use of secure messaging apps like Signal, Meta’s WhatsApp or Apple’s iMessage by Wall Street employees and managers.

Starting in late 2021, the watchdogs secured settlements with bigger players including JPMorgan Chase, Goldman Sachs, Morgan Stanley and Citigroup.

Fines related to the issue total more than $2 billion, according to the SEC and CFTC,” reports CNBC. READ MORE

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8.9.23 - Cash Loses Another Battle

Gold last traded at $1,915 an ounce. Silver at $22.69 an ounce.

Cash Loses Another Battle -Daily Reckoning

The Secret War on your Cash rages on. These latest restrictions and infringements are bordering on Orwellian. The elimination of cash payments and transactions has incredibly far reaching consequences we would all be wise to consider.

by James Rickards

When I talk about the war on cash and a cashless society, some people think I’m exaggerating the threat or they don’t take it seriously.

But I’m not exaggerating the threat. It’s here, it’s growing and it’ll only get worse. Just look at a nation like Australia, a Western-style democracy similar in many ways to the U.S.

It provides a cautionary tale to Americans about where the war on cash is heading.

A few months ago, one of Australia’s four major banks announced that it was limiting cash withdrawals and deposits at several of its branches.

Over the past year, $1 billion in bank notes have been removed from circulation in Australia.

And according to a March bulletin from the Reserve Bank of Australia, the percentage of retail payments settled in cash fell from 70% in 2007 to 27% in 2019.

That number is even lower today, as COVID further eased the transition away from cash in 2020. Remember when they were telling us to avoid cash because it might be carrying the virus?

Well, as of last year, the percentage of Australian retail payments settled in cash fell to just 13%. How long will it be before cash payments are eliminated altogether? READ MORE

BRICS Reveals 23 Countries Have Applied to Join Economic Bloc – Power Shift to Dethrone U.S Dollar Soon- Crypto News Flash

The media has seemingly quieted down on the topic of BRICS but - make no mistake - its relevance is becoming greater by the day as more nations hop aboard.

by Bhushan Akolkar

South Africa, which is hosting the BRICS summit this year in 2023, has published a list of 23 countries willing to be part of this economic bloc. South Africa’s Minister of International Relations and Cooperation, Naledi Pandor, revealed about receiving new applications in a briefing on Monday, August 7.

The BRICS summit shall happen ahead of this month on August 22-24 in Johannesburg, South Africa. Pandor mentioned that during the summit, the BRICS nations’ leaders will receive a unique report about the principles for broadening the association and a list of countries interested in joining the economic group. these leaders would further discuss the expansion of the bloc. Pandor continued:

“It is the leaders who will make the final decision on this issue. We remember that South Africa was the first country to be admitted to the association after its creation. As the BRICS chairman, South Africa will negotiate at the summit on the expansion model and its principles and criteria. We are gradually moving towards a consensus on BRICS expansion and we hope that it will be reached at the summit.” READ MORE

Stock Market Crash Alert: The July Jobs Report Just Confirmed a Recession Is Coming - Investor Place

As the stock market continues to rally, experts believe the good times are going to end. I'm not sure anyone wants to see the market drop or even collapse, but the shaky fundamentals do more than suggest that one or the other may soon occur.

by Shrey Dua

Friday’s surprisingly cool jobs report has reignited fears of both a U.S. recession and a resulting stock market crash. Just how bad was the July jobs data?

Well, by most accounts, not too bad at all. Indeed, the U.S. economy added 187,000 jobs last month, below projections for 200,000. While this is a notable slowdown from June’s 200,000 added jobs, it still represents an unemployment rate of just 3.5%. That’s actually an improvement from June’s 3.6% recorded rate, which was also the estimated jobless level for July.

Average hourly earnings also managed to surpass expectations. Wages increased 0.4% from June to July, for 4.4% annual wage growth, once again ahead of consensus predictions.

“The labor market seems to be humming along rather well at this point in the business cycle. A 3.5% unemployment rate, you can’t complain about that,” said Satyam Panday, U.S. chief economist at S&P Global Ratings. “It’s a nice glide path down.”

Jobs were largely bolstered by hiring growth in the education and health sector, which added 100,000 jobs last month. This was followed by construction, which contributed 19,000 jobs to the mix. READ MORE

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8.8.23 - US Bank Shares Drop as Moody’s Cuts Ratings

Gold last traded at $1,924 an ounce. Silver at $22.76 an ounce.

EDITOR'S NOTE: More trouble for US banks as Moody's lowers ratings on several lenders and hints that more may be next. As with all movements within the financial markets, these downgrades don't just affect share prices. The Commercial Real Estate market - already on shaky ground due to delinquency rates - could see a steep plunge in values as more borrowers struggle to refinance their debts.

US Bank Shares Drop as Moody’s Cuts Ratings, Warns on Risks -Yahoo! Finance

by Hari Govind and Steve Dickson

(Bloomberg) -- US bank stocks declined after Moody’s Investors Service lowered its ratings for 10 small and midsize lenders and said it may downgrade major firms including U.S. Bancorp, Bank of New York Mellon Corp., State Street Corp., and Truist Financial Corp.

Higher funding costs, potential regulatory capital weaknesses and rising risks tied to commercial real estate are among strains prompting the review, Moody’s said late Monday.

"Collectively, these three developments have lowered the credit profile of a number of US banks, though not all banks equally," the rating company said.

Shares declined for firms that had their ratings cut, including M&T Bank Corp., down 4.6%, and Webster Financial Corp., which lost 3.4%. Moody’s also adopted a "negative" outlook for 11 lenders, including PNC Financial Services Group, Capital One Financial Corp. and Citizens Financial Group Inc. Among those, PNC was down 4.6% and Capital One lost 3%.

Investors, rattled by the collapse of regional banks in California and New York this year, have been watching closely for signs of stress in the industry as rising interest rates force firms to pay more for deposits and bump up the cost of funding from alternative sources. At the same time, those higher rates are eroding the value of banks' assets and making it harder for commercial real estate borrowers to refinance their debts, potentially weakening lenders' balance sheets. READ MORE

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8.7.23 - Bank of America Insiders Sell $14M Of Stock

Gold last traded at $1,942 an ounce. Silver at $23.63 an ounce.

EDITOR'S NOTE: There has been no shortage of uncertainty when it comes to banks this year. This recent insider sell-off of Bank of America shares is certainly not helping to ease the concerns of investors. With a banking system that seems to be on the brink in new ways every day, should outside investors and depositors be looking to get out as well?

Bank of America Insiders Sell US$14m Of Stock, Possibly Signalling Caution -Yahoo! Finance

by Simply Wall St

In the last year, many Bank of America Corporation (NYSE:BAC) insiders sold a substantial stake in the company which may have sparked shareholders' attention. Knowing whether insiders are buying is usually more helpful when evaluating insider transactions, as insider selling can have various explanations. However, when multiple insiders sell stock over a specific duration, shareholders should take notice as that could possibly be a red flag.

While we would never suggest that investors should base their decisions solely on what the directors of a company have been doing, we would consider it foolish to ignore insider transactions altogether.

Bank of America Insider Transactions Over The Last Year

Over the last year, we can see that the biggest insider sale was by the President of Global Corporate & Investment Banking, Matthew Koder, for US$7.7m worth of shares, at about US$35.91 per share. We generally don't like to see insider selling, but the lower the sale price, the more it concerns us. It's of some comfort that this sale was conducted at a price well above the current share price, which is US$31.19. So it may not tell us anything about how insiders feel about the current share price.

In the last year Bank of America insiders didn't buy any company stock. READ MORE

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8.4.23 - Did the Fed Invent Inflation?

Gold last traded at $1,942 an ounce. Silver at $23.63 an ounce.

EDITOR'S NOTE: It's been said that the official inflation numbers are always manipulated to paint a rosier economic picture. Add a little of this, subtract a little of that and - Voila! - a number everyone can tolerate. But if you look at the inflation data over 100+ years, total inflation under the Fed is 3000%! Is it any wonder people don't believe the Fed is doing us any favors?

The Fed Hits 3,000 Percent Inflation - American Institute for Economic Research

by Thomas L Hogan

The US economy was pushed to extremes during the pandemic recession and subsequent recovery. The unemployment rate peaked at 14.7 percent, the highest in the post-World War II period. Inflation reached its highest rate in 40 years, prompting the Fed to raise short-term interest rates to their highest levels since 2007.

As of June, the economy hit another dubious milestone: Inflation has now reached 3,000 percent under the Federal Reserve.

Inflation under the Fed

The Federal Reserve Act was passed by Congress in December of 1913, and the regional Federal Reserve banks opened for business in November of 1914. Comparing the price level at the end of 1914 to the level today tells us how much total price inflation the US economy has experienced under the Fed.

The consumer price index (CPI) is the most widely used and longest-running measure of the US price level, but there are disagreements about the accuracy of historical CPI. MeasuringWorth aggregates macroeconomic data such as interest rates, economic production, and the price-level from the most reliable historical sources.

Historical CPI data from MeasuringWorth show that the US price level rose by 2,920.2 percent from 1914 through 2022.

While the MeasuringWorth dataset provides only annual data, we can add monthly data for the current year from the official CPI data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS). According to BLS data, the CPI rose by 2.74 percent (not seasonally adjusted) in the first half of 2023.

That brings total inflation under the Fed to 3,000.2 percent. READ MORE

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8.3.23 - Inflation worries resurface

Gold last traded at $1,934 an ounce. Silver at $23.59 an ounce.

EDITOR'S NOTE: For weeks now, the media has touted that inflation is under control; if not a distant memory. Traders sure seem to think otherwise however, and they believe it won't be improving any time soon. The proof is in the bond yields.

Inflation worries resurface as long-term U.S. bond yields start to come unglued - MarketWatch

By Vivien Lou Chen

Inflation worries are back in some corners of the financial market, judging by soaring long-term Treasury yields that point to worries about higher-for-longer future price gains.

Yields on 10- BX:TMUBMUSD10Y and 30-year Treasury yields BX:TMUBMUSD30Y finished at fresh 2023 highs on Thursday, fueled by an aggressive selloff of long-term government debt. After factoring in the highest rates on 10- and 30-year Treasury inflation-protected securities in more than a decade on Thursday, traders continued to envision a scenario in which U.S. inflation remains above 2% for the long term.

A number of factors may be at play, chief of which is the continued strength of the U.S. economy and labor market.

Economists pointed to Wednesday’s better-than-expected private-sector employment report, which showed the U.S. added 324,000 jobs in July, and said expectations for Friday’s monthly jobs report were being revised upward even though the private-sector reading doesn’t always act as a reliable predictor. Before Wednesday’s data, economists polled by The Wall Street Journal expected July’s nonfarm payrolls report to show a gain of 200,000, little changed from the 209,000 increase seen in June.

The robust data comes at a time when the U.S. fiscal outlook is in focus following the Treasury’s plans to borrow $1 trillion in the third quarter and Fitch Ratings’ downgrade of the U.S. government’s debt rating. READ MORE

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8.2.23 - Banks Are Now Closing Thousands of Accounts Daily

Gold last traded at $1,935 an ounce. Silver at $23.71 an ounce.

Banking turmoil arrives in small-town USA with Heartland Tri-State failure -Yahoo! Finance

Another bank has been shuttered. The state banking commissioner claims this was an isolated incident and had nothing to do with the other bank failures from earlier this year. Even if this is true, why are US banks in such a precarious position that any little thing can result in their demise?

by David Hollerith - Senior Reporter

Bank turmoil arrived in small-town America on Friday night when a tiny four-branch bank in Kansas failed, becoming the fourth lender to be seized by regulators this year and the fifth to fold altogether.

According to the Kansas State Banking Commissioner David Herndon, the event "had nothing to do" with the year's earlier regional bank failures.

The Heartland Tri-State Bank, of Elkhart, Kan., is the smallest to go under in 2023 by far. It had $139 million in assets when it went down Friday, according to the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation.

The other banks that failed thus far this year all had assets of more than $100 billion, including Silicon Valley Bank and Signature Bank.

The biggest was First Republic, which had $229 billion when it was seized by regulators in May, becoming the second-largest bank failure in US history.

The failures of Silicon Valley Bank and Signature Bank in March were the third- and fourth-biggest ever. Silvergate agreed in March to shut itself down voluntarily. READ MORE

Banks Are Now Closing Thousands of Accounts Daily -Frank Nez

There is definitely an uptick in suspicious behavior in banking; but it's coming from the banks, not the depositors. Now over a thousand accounts are being closed a day, often with zero explanation. Is this the beginning of the country's biggest banking powers determining who they deem socially worthy of having access to their own money?

by Frank Nez

Banks are now closing thousands of customer accounts daily with reports only growing in the last year.

“The figures, obtained through a freedom of information (FoI) request made to City watchdog the Financial Conduct Authority and first reported in the Mail on Sunday, revealed that in 2016-17, just over 45,000 accounts were shut by banks.

The total has increased every year since, climbing to just over 343,000 accounts in 2021-22 – representing well over 1,000 for every business day of the week,” says The Guardian.

When people or organizations have their bank accounts closed, they often receive little or no explanation as to why this has happened, though the banks sometimes say it is due to concerns over financial crime such as money laundering and fraud, says The Guardian’s Betsy Reed. READ MORE

9 Reasons Why Gold Will Soon Replace Treasuries as the Ultimate Store-of-Value Asset - Doug Casey's International Man

US Treasuries have always been viewed as one of the safest investments and stores of value available. According to some, that may be about to change. Here are nine reasons why.

by Nick Giambruno

In the age of fiat currency, the distinct concepts of saving and investing have become conflated and confused.

Saving is producing more than you consume and then setting it the difference aside.

Investing is allocating capital to a productive business to create more wealth. Investing has more risk—and potential reward—than saving.

Today, however, what most people think of as saving is actually investing.

That’s because most people take the excess of their production over consumption and put it into the stock or bond market.

Most people understand that it’s not optimal to simply hold fiat currency, which the central banks continuously debase. So they put their money into other assets, primarily bonds and stocks.

In other words, fiat currency and inflation have ruined saving for most people. It has forced them further down the risk curve into stocks, bonds, and other investments in a struggle to maintain their purchasing power.

However, there is no guarantee those investments will even keep up with inflation. But suppose they do. They will then be subject to a capital gains tax, even if it’s only a nominal gain, not a real one. READ MORE

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8.1.23 - The $52 trillion case to buy gold

Gold last traded at $1,950 an ounce. Silver at $24.39 an ounce.

EDITOR'S NOTE: Despite all the rosy media reports, there is no avoiding the foundational cracks in the US and the global economy. Gold has been a stable hedge throughout history; offering diversification, growth and stability - and it will continue to do so as other asset classes falter.

The $52 trillion case to buy gold and SPDR Gold Trust ETF(GLD) - Invezz

By Crispus Nyaga

Gold price has moved sideways in the past few days as investors assess the impact of last week’s Federal Reserve decision and the falling US consumer inflation. The precious metal was trading at $1,957 on Monday, ~6% below the highest level this year. Similarly, the SPDR Gold Trust ETF (GLD) is hovering below its all-time high.

Gold is the most precious metal in the world. It is held by many developed and emerging market central banks like the United States, UK, Turkey, and China. Unlike other metals like copper, iron ore, and lithium, gold does not have a major industrial purpose.

Instead, gold is seen as both a currency or an insurance against risks. It is also seen as an alternative to the US dollar and a hedge against inflation. And in this regard, gold has outperformed the dollar. While gold price has jumped by 60% in the past five years, the dollar index has risen by less than 10%.

The most bullish case for gold is the soaring US public debt. Data compiled by the Peterson Institute shows that America’s public debt stands at $32.6 trillion, which is equivalent to $97.6 per person.

Debt has been in a strong upward trend over the years. Data compiled by the Federal Reserve shows that the US had $5.5 trillion in 2000 and $3 trillion in 2000. Sadly, the debt has regained momentum recently and the situation will only get worse. READ MORE

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7.31.23 - Is the economy recovering?

Gold last traded at $1,965 an ounce. Silver at $24.76 an ounce.

EDITOR'S NOTE: The stock market has been enjoying some good gains in recent weeks as reports of a rebounding economy continue to roll in. It seems hard to believe that the economy could be healing when there are so many signs that it's not. The question is; are these glowing reports really true? Here's a look at what's really going on.

10 Signs That The Mainstream Media Is Not Telling You The Truth About The Economy -The Economic Collapse Blog

If you believe the corporate media, the U.S. economy is doing absolutely great as we start to roll through the second half of 2023. Even though inflation is out of control, the commercial real estate market is in free fall, corporate bankruptcies are surging, and large businesses all over America are conducting mass layoffs, we are being told that everything is just peachy. For example, the following comes from a recent NPR article entitled “What recession? It’s a summer of splurging, profits and girl power”…

The numbers are in and things look surprisingly rosy for the U.S. economy:

The Federal Reserve is still cautious, but big brands – including Coca-Cola, Hilton and Visa — are singing praises to shoppers seemingly undeterred by companies’ raising prices. What’s more, Taylor Swift, Beyoncé and Barbie are enticing people to part with their money, bolstering local businesses.

Yes, “girl power” is supposedly saving the U.S. economy.

Doesn’t that sound wonderful?

Unfortunately, it just isn’t true. Here are 10 signs that the mainstream media is not telling you the truth about the economy…

#1 When the economy is doing well, there is a tremendous demand for trucking. But when the economy is tanking, trucking companies often get into serious trouble. So it is a very bad sign that “one of the country’s oldest and largest trucking businesses” is literally on the brink of collapse… READ MORE

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7.28.23 - Why countries around the world want to break up with the dollar

Gold last traded at $1,959 an ounce. Silver at $24.34 an ounce.

EDITOR'S NOTE: The shift away from the US dollar is in the news more and more. The rate by which these countries are looking for alternatives is definitely cause for concern. After decades of dominance, global de-dollarization could have very devastating consequences for our economy.

3 reasons countries around the world want to break up with the dollar -Business Insider

by Huileng Tan

The dollar has been the world's reserve currency since World War II, but a combination of political and economic reasons is slowly chipping away at its supremacy.

Nearly 60% of international reserves are held in dollar-denominated assets, according to the International Monetary Fund. The dollar is also the most widely used currency for trade.

Now, Western-led sanctions against Russia related to its invasion of Ukraine are making other countries wary of potential consequences of crossing Washington.

Some, such as Brazil, Argentina, Bangladesh, and India, are lining up backup currencies and assets — such as the Chinese yuan and bitcoin — for trade and payments.

While the macro-geopolitical environment is spurring countries to seek alternative currencies, there's long been uneasiness over the dollar's outsized dominance in global trade and finance.

This de-dollarization talk has come back in waves every few years since at least the 1970s.

Here are three other reasons countries around the world are attempting to line up plans to possibly move away from a dollar-dominated world. READ MORE

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7.27.23 - Should the market be much lower than it is?

Gold last traded at $1,946 an ounce. Silver at $24.15 an ounce.

EDITOR'S NOTE: A headline filled with doom and gloom, but likely right on target. Nothing here makes any of us feel good about the economy but it does give us time to prepare. Diversify your assets now so that whatever market sector does take a dive, you'll be able to ride the wave.

Stocks will tumble, recession will strike, and dollar dominance is at risk, Thomas Peterffy warns -Yahoo! Finance

by Theron Mohamed

Prepare for stocks to plunge, a recession to hit, and the US dollar to falter, Thomas Peterffy has warned.

The billionaire founder of Interactive Brokers also said his bitcoin bet could be worth a fortune or zilch, China has become less of a threat, and many investors are sitting on massive Big Tech profits.

"I think the market should be much lower than where it is," Peterffy told MarketWatch on Tuesday. "I do think that it's going to go down pretty soon."

The chairman of the online discount brokerage argued investors are too positive about the economic backdrop. He cast doubt on predictions that inflation will keep falling and corporate earnings will rise, noting that unemployment usually needs to rise for price growth to slow — and more joblessness weakens demand and erodes company profits.

Inflation jumped as high as 9.1% last year, spurring the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates from almost zero to over 5% in under 18 months. Steeper borrowing costs deter spending, hiring, and investing, which relieves upward pressure on prices. However, they also tend to increase unemployment, drag down asset prices and corporate profits, and raise the risk of a recession. READ MORE

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7.26.23 - JPMorgan Sees Gold Charging to Record Highs

Gold last traded at $1,972 an ounce. Silver at $24.93 an ounce.

Representative Warren Davidson Calls for Swift Ban of CBDCs, Says Fed Creating ‘Financial Equivalent of Death Star’ - The Daily Hodl

With so much downside risk - due to cyber-hacking and privacy loss concerns - and not much upside potential, why else would our government be pushing for a CBDC if not to be able to exert more control? Not one advocate can accurately address what problems a CBDC would solve, but that hasn't stopped the banks from moving forward.

by Mark Emem

Republican Congressman Warren Davidson is calling for an outright ban on central bank digital currencies (CDBCs) as he foresees the government using the asset to exert more control over the general population.

In response to a job advertisement by the Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco seeking to recruit a senior crypto architect specializing in CBDCs, Congressman Davidson says that digital versions of fiat currencies should be outlawed.

Davidson refers to CBDCs as the “Death Star,” a reference to the planet-destroying warship from Star Wars.

“The Federal Reserve is building the financial equivalent of the Death Star. Central Bank Digital Currency (CBDC) corrupts money into a tool for coercion and control. Congress must swiftly ban then criminalize any effort to design, build, develop, test or establish a CBDC.” READ MORE

JPMorgan Sees Gold Charging to Records in 2024 as Fed Cuts Rates -Yahoo! Finance

The largest bank in the US sees gold reaching new heights in the near-term. JPMorgan sees gold as a great portfolio diversifier as well as a good candidate for solid performance over the next year and a half. Read on to see the fundamentals they believe will cause gold to shine during the coming recessionary storm.

by Sybilla Gross

(Bloomberg) -- JPMorgan Chase & Co. sees an opportunity in gold ahead of a likely US recession, predicting prices will push past $2,000 an ounce by year-end and hit fresh records in 2024 as interest rates start to fall.

Falling real yields in the US will be a “significant driver” for the precious metal when the Federal Reserve starts to deploy rate cuts, which should play out in the second quarter of next year, Greg Shearer, executive director of global commodities research, said in an online briefing on Wednesday.

Gold has rallied around 15% over the past 12 months, supported by signs the US rate-hiking cycle was nearing an end, buying by central banks, as well as bouts of haven demand. In early May, it approached its record high of $2,075.47 an ounce, set in 2020.

The bank has an average price target of $2,175 an ounce for bullion in the final quarter of 2024, with risks skewed to the upside on a forecast for a mild US recession that’s likely to hit sometime before the Fed starts easing.

“We’re in a very prime place where we think gold ownership and long allocation to gold and silver is something that acts as both a late cycle diversifier and something that will perform as we look to the next sort of 12, 18 months,” Shearer said. READ MORE

PacWest Bank, Thrashed by Deposit Crisis, Will Be Taken Over - The New York Times

And another one bites the dust: PacWest is being absorbed by a smaller, regional bank after it was significantly weakened during the run of bank failures earlier this year. The nation's banking crisis is far from over, despite the rosy outlook from the media.

by Rob Copeland

PacWest Bank, which never fully recovered from its hammering during this year’s banking crisis, will be absorbed by a smaller lender, Banc of California, the banks announced on Tuesday.

The development was a humbling end for the 24-year-old PacWest, a once fast-growing Los Angeles bank whose clients fled amid turmoil for regional lenders this year. The PacWest name will be retired, and the combined banks will operate under the Banc of California name. Jared Wolff, the chief executive of Banc of California, will run the new entity.

In an indication of how weakened PacWest has become, the combined bank will have just $30.5 billion in deposits — considerably less than the $34 billion that PacWest had at the start of the year. READ MORE

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7.25.23 - Uninsured depositors remain a ticking time bomb

Gold last traded at $1,964 an ounce. Silver at $24.65 an ounce.

EDITOR'S NOTE: Recent bank failures have proven the US banking system isn't exactly on solid ground; but there is a lesser known threat to the system as well, uninsured depositors. Uninsured deposits have doubled in the last thirty years now accounting for 40% of all deposits. Read on to see why this is such a concern and the simple solution available, if only Congress would act. Precious metals continue to offer a refuge from this chaos. Call us today to learn how you can hedge your holdings.

Uninsured depositors remain a ticking time bomb for the U.S. banking system -Yahoo!Finance

by Lawrence J. White

The failures of three sizable banks in March and April exposed major weaknesses in bank regulation. Who did what to whom, and when–a favorite Washington game–is currently playing out. What has received less attention is the major role that uninsured depositors played in these bank failures–and how uninsured deposits remain a major source of instability for the U.S. banking system.

Deposit insurance in U.S. banks is provided by the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation (FDIC); for credit unions, it’s the National Credit Union Administration. The maximum amount covered is $250,000 in a bank account (although there are ways to have multiple covered accounts). For most households, that is more than enough.

Nevertheless, uninsured deposits are currently around 40% of all deposits (up from only 20% three decades ago), and these uninsured deposits are a lurking problem for banking stability–especially in an era of online banking. Uninsured depositors are almost always slow to recognize the financial problems of their banks. But when they do, their reactions are fast and massive. And their withdrawals may well inspire large withdrawals at other banks, with highly disruptive consequences for the U.S. economy: contagion risks are real. READ MORE

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7.24.23 - US Banks Are Abruptly Freezing Accounts

Gold last traded at $1,955 an ounce. Silver at $24.34 an ounce.

EDITOR'S NOTE: Banks often freeze assets if there are suspicious activity concerns; but it seems banks have recently started over-responding to suspicious reports and started freezing accounts with little cause. Law abiding, tax paying citizens are being told they can't have access to their own money. How do citizens fight a massive entity when their life savings is at stake?

US Banks Are Abruptly Freezing Accounts, Halting Withdrawals Without Warning or Explanation: Report -Daily Hodl

by Daily Hodl Staff

US banks are increasingly closing customers’ accounts and freezing withdrawals without warning, according to a new report.

A growing number of people say they’re abruptly losing access to both their checking and savings accounts, reports CBS Los Angeles.

The report cites the sudden account closure of Elad Nehorai, who received an ominous alert while logging into his Bank of America account.

He then drove to a branch in West LA, where he was told his account had been shut down and access to his life savings was denied.

“Bank of America told me it was shut down. They refused to give me an explanation. They told me I would get my money after it was resolved. All of a sudden I find out I’m broke. I can’t feed my family and I can’t pay any expenses.”

Banks typically shut down accounts over concerns of suspicious behavior.

But according to the Banking Policy Institute, only 4% of Suspicious Activity Reports (SARs) submitted by banks to law enforcement result in a follow-up, and a small fraction of the follow-ups result in arrests and convictions.

Back in 2014, the number of SARs submitted by banks stood at about 830,000.

That number has significantly increased in recent years, with about 1.4 million SARs reported in 2021.

In addition, Republican attorneys general in 19 states recently accused JPMorgan of “persistently” discriminating against its own clients and closing bank accounts without warning based on religious and political biases. READ MORE

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7.21.23 - Is The Gold Standard Coming Back?

Gold last traded at $1,961 an ounce. Silver at $24.61 an ounce.

EDITOR'S NOTE: BRICS is still on track to announce their own gold-backed currency. But will it truly be backed by gold? Who will make sure? Will it bring stability to those leery of the dollar's long-term strength? Or just provide another way for an international currency to be manipulated by the few on the backs of the many.

Is The Gold Standard Coming Back? Doug Casey On The BRICS Gold-Backed Currency -ZeroHedge

Authored by Doug Casey via InternationalMan.com

International Man: There have long been rumors that Russia or China would create a gold-backed currency, but there was never a formal acknowledgment… until recently.

The Russian government recently stated:

“The BRICS countries are planning to introduce a new trading currency, which will be backed by gold.”

Analysts expect a formal announcement at the next BRICS summit in Johannesburg in the coming weeks.

What is your take?

Doug Casey: Let’s try to parse the words in the statement. In particular, the use of the word “trading.” I’m not sure what the difference between a “trading currency” and an ordinary currency might be. My guess is that it would only be used for settling accounts internationally. Also, if it’s going to be backed by gold, where will that gold be held? Will the amount of this currency—let’s call it the BRIC—that different governments get be based only upon the amount of gold that they have in their treasury? And will the currency be just for governments, or will it be available to companies or the average guy? READ MORE

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7.20.23 - Collapse Of The "Risk-Free" Delusion

Gold last traded at $1,969 an ounce. Silver at $24.76 an ounce.

EDITOR'S NOTE: The bond market has been a cornerstone of the financial world for what feels like forever. Bonds are viewed as a stable and secure place to park money and let it grow. It now appears this is more perception than reality; and the drop in the bond market we have already seen may just be the tip of the iceberg.

The Collapse Of The "Risk-Free" Delusion: Implications For The $133 Trillion Bond Market -ZeroHedge

Authored by Nick Giambruno via InternationalMan.com,

Did you know that 2022 was the WORST year for US Treasuries in American history?

The benchmark 10-year Treasury fell nearly 18%, and the 30-year Treasury collapsed over 39%. Many other bonds did even worse.

Even if you go back 250 years, you can’t find a worse year for Treasuries, the foundation of the colossal global bond market.

It should forever end the ridiculous—yet pervasive—delusion that Treasuries are “risk-free.”

Many people and almost every financial institution have long thoughtlessly accepted this trope.

As a result, bonds in general—and Treasuries in particular—became the store-of-value asset of choice and the de facto savings account for savers and investors worldwide.

Today, the global bond market has grown to be worth more than an estimated $133 trillion as the masses parked their savings there because conventional wisdom said it was the “safe” thing to do.

By contrast, all the mined gold in the world is worth about $12.7 trillion, less than 10% of the bond market.

It may be tempting to think the worst is over for bonds—it’s not. As you’ll see, the pain for bondholders is just starting. READ MORE

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7.19.23 - The most terrifying of villains?

Gold last traded at $1,977 an ounce. Silver at $25.11 an ounce.

CRE Dominos Fall: Starwood Defaults On $212.4 Million Atlanta Office Tower -ZeroHedge

Starwood Capital Group has just defaulted on a $200 million building in Atlanta; part of a disturbing trend of borrowers simply walking away without further consequence. And it doesn't end here, more of these defaults are coming. Yet another reflection of the decay in our economy.

by Tyler Durden

Starwood Capital Group has defaulted on a $212.5 million mortgage backed by an office building in Sandy Springs, an ultra-wealthy suburb in northern Fulton County, Georgia, just above Atlanta.

The mortgage is on Tower Place 100, a 790,000 sqft mixed-use property built in 1974 and renovated in 2017. The largest tenant is WeWork companies which occupy 84,594 sqft.

At the end of 2022, the tower was 62% leased, down from 87% in 2018 when the loan was originated.

Bloomberg data shows the loan matured on July 9. Starwood has failed to refinance or pay off the debt. Delinquency commentary on the Terminal reads, "Borrower confirmed they are unable to pay off the loan at maturity. Counsel engaged. PNA pending." READ MORE

Pushers of central bank digital currencies are the most terrifying of villains- The Washington Times

We've seen a lot of corruption, loss and turmoil in our banking system recently. Now the government wants to take complete control of our money system with a government-run cryptocurrency. Is this simply a push for a more efficient and regulated way to conduct business? Or are the motives behind this move more sinister. You be the judge.

by By E.J. Antoni and Peter St. Onge

Villains always reveal their evil plans right before activating their doomsday devices. Today, the villains are central bankers, the evil plan is to surveil and control, and the doomsday device is CBDCs: central bank digital currencies.

CBDCs are a type of government-run cryptocurrency that let the government monitor and control every single transaction you make, no matter how small. That means every single cent can be tracked, traced, taxed, and stopped or even forced without your consent.

Whether it’s paying a babysitter, borrowing a few dollars for lunch from a friend, tipping a caddy on the golf course, or subscribing to a conservative blog, Uncle Sam will know.

This goes way beyond Big Brother: Since all transactions must be cleared through the government agency running the CBDC, they can veto any transaction or even force transactions without your authorization.

It’s a level of governmental control George Orwell could never imagine. READ MORE

US Housing Starts, Permits Plunged In June; Rental Unit Apps Collapse -ZeroHedge

Surprisingly the housing market has been holding it together pretty well over the last year or so, in spite of higher interest rates but this could soon change. Recent numbers reflect a slowing in housing starts which is what many were concerned would be the first domino to fall.

by Tyler Durden

After a surprising surge in May, US Housing Starts and Building Permits both decline in June (-8.0% MoM and -3.7% MoM respectively) and Starts saw sizable downward revisions from last month (from +21.7% MoM to +15.7% MoM).

Under the hood, only single-family building permits increased in June (6th month in a row of increases). Multi-family permits and both single- and multi-family Starts dropped.

Multifamily construction dropped over 11%, but worse still, applications to build multifamily dwellings such as apartments fell 13.5% (the most since November) to 540k (lowest since Oct 2020)....

These MoM moves have dragged the Starts and Permits SAAR down notably (1.434mm and 1.440mm respectively)...

Finally we note that while Housing Starts and Completions remain well off their 2022 highs, Construction Jobs remain very close to those highs...

Is there a wake-up for residential construction employment coming? READ MORE

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7.18.23 - Silver Price May Test $30 This Year

Gold last traded at $1,978 an ounce. Silver at $25.07 an ounce.

EDITOR'S NOTE: What's the next best play in metals you may wonder? According to this article, all signs are pointing to silver. Silver and gold have shared a lot of the same price trends over the years, but there may be a few reasons why we might expect to see silver shine a little bit brighter this year.

Silver Price May Test $30 This Year -FX Empire

Silver has recently rallied towards the $25 level as gold/silver ratio declined below 79. The significant decline in gold/silver ratio served as the main catalyst for silver’s rally as there were no big moves in gold markets.

Back in May, I highlighted a bullish scenario for silver, which implied a gold/silver ratio of 75. At this point, it looks that gold/silver ratio is ready for a serious test of the important support near the 78 level. A successful test of this support level will push gold/silver ratio towards the yearly lows at 75, which will be bullish for silver. From a big picture point of view, gold/silver ratio is moving towards the levels that were seen at the start of the year.

The Fed may soon make its last rate hike in this cycle, which will be bullish for precious metals as traders will start to prepare for future rates cuts in 2024. High interest rates are bearish for precious metals that pay no interest. However, demand for precious metals stays strong despite rate hikes, which shows that fundamentals are bullish.

From the technical point of view, silver’s attempts to develop an upside trend were stopped in the $25 – $26 range in 2022 and 2023. A combination of positive catalysts, including the continuation of the current trend in gold/silver ratio and the end of the rate hike cycle, could push silver above $26. Such a move will likely trigger a buying wave that may push silver towards the 2020 highs near the $30 level. READ MORE

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7.17.23 - BRICS Gold-Backed Currency Fuels Bullish Momentum

Gold last traded at $1,954 an ounce. Silver at $24.84 an ounce.

EDITOR'S NOTE: BRICS continues to provide price - as well as interest - support for gold. It's no secret that gold has been long been the great stabilizer for governments, banks and national economies. Will this momentum continue? The answer appears to be a resounding yes.

Precious Metals Surge As BRICS Gold-Backed Currency Fuels Bullish Momentum – What’s Next? -FX Empire

By Phil Carr

Growing euphoria surrounding the potential of new Gold-backed currency has sent the entire precious metals complex surging to fresh multi-month highs – with a long list of metals notching up spectacular double digit gains, in the past few days alone.

And this could just be the beginning!

As tensions with Western economies continue to grow, Russia along with the other BRICS countries including Brazil, India, China and South Africa have made their strategic move to weaken the dominance of the U.S dollar loud and clear.

The announcement adds further momentum to the much discussed “de-dollarization” movement that has intensified since the West imposed massive and unprecedented sanctions on Russia for its invasion of Ukraine.

But the roots of the “de-dollarization” movement go much further back than that and can be traced to the period that followed post-pandemic stimulus measures.

The biggest and most unprecedented money printing programs that the world has ever seen following the COVID-19 pandemic resulted in global inflation skyrocketing to a four-decade high and the worst cost-of-living crisis seen in more than 60 years.

This dynamic – in which essentially a strong dollar “exports inflation” to the rest of the global economy is the prominent driver behind the rapidly growing “de-dollarization” movement.

As Emerging Market economies grapple with raising inflation pressures, the weakening of their currencies relative to the dollar and increased sensitivity to U.S interest rates – their ambition to reduce dependency on the U.S dollar is growing much stronger by the day. READ MORE

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7.14.23 - Is inflation really going down?

Gold last traded at $1,957 an ounce. Silver at $24.96 an ounce.

EDITOR'S NOTE: Apparently the mainstream media is not being truthful when it comes to reporting inflation. It may be leveling out, but prices are still climbing. Americans are still feeling the strain in all the ways that matter - in the grocery store and at the pump.

The Mainstream Media Is Not Telling You The Truth About Inflation -The Economic Collapse Blog

Inflation is going down! Isn’t that wonderful? When many less educated Americans hear this news, they will think that prices are going down. But that is not true at all. In fact, prices are still going up. They are just going up at a slower rate than they were before. According to the federal government, the Consumer Price Index was only 3 percent higher in June 2023 than it was in June 2022. That sounds like pretty good news, but it is imperative to realize that the formula used for the Consumer Price Index has literally been changed dozens of times over the decades. If the rate of inflation was still calculated the way that it was back in 1980, it would still be well into the double digits.

So we should be thankful that prices have moderated a bit (for now), but anyone that believes that inflation is “under control” is just being delusional.

Month after month, the cost of living just keeps becoming more oppressive for average Americans. At this point, U.S. families are under so much financial stress that they are even “skimping on everyday items such as toothpaste and toilet paper”... READ MORE

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7.13.23 - Is the economy already in crisis?

Gold last traded at $1,960 an ounce. Silver at $24.86 an ounce.

EDITOR'S NOTE: The economy is in a rolling financial crisis, according to some experts. One of their areas of concern is the private debt sector; which has ballooned out of control. Another weak spot reflecting further strain on our already battered financial state.

The economy is in a 'rolling financial crisis' as private sector debt balloons, GMO says -Yahoo!Finance

by Jennifer Sor

The economy is in the throes of a slow-moving financial crisis thanks to ballooning amounts of debt being racked up in the US private sector, according to GMO.

"We seem to live in an era of rolling financial crisis. I suspect this is the result of a massive build-up of private sector debt," GMO partner James Montier said in a whitepaper published Monday. "Sometimes these build-ups are accompanied by very high rates of credit growth, giving rise to a credit bubble. On other occasions these builds-ups sit simmering in the background, largely unnoticed until the proverbial s**t hits the fan, when they suddenly act as an amplifier causing a much steeper decline than would otherwise have been the case," he warned.

Montier believed the second scenario describes most financial markets today, with private debt levels ballooning all over the world. But it's at particular risk of happening in the US, he warned, where the ratio of private sector debt to GDP has been north of 150% for most of the last 20 years.

Meanwhile, five-year private credit growth has remained relatively low, which suggests the US isn't yet in a credit bubble.

That mountain of private debt poses a threat to financial stability and to asset prices, especially considering other macro headwinds that are beating down on the economy. Some experts have warned of a recession to soon hit, thanks to high interest rates overtightening the economy. READ MORE

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7.12.23 - Central banks move gold back home

Gold last traded at $1,957 an ounce. Silver at $24.13 an ounce.

BofA Ordered To Pay $250 Million For Opening Fake Accounts, Charging Illegal Fees -ZeroHedge

As if banks weren't creating enough stress for their depositors, we now know BofA has been defrauding their customers. Banks should be a place we put our hard earned dollars to keep them safe, but in today's landscape, it's very hard to believe that will ever be the case again.

by Tyler Durden

Bank of America has pulled a Wells Fargo - and has agreed to pay $150 million in fines and $100 million to customers for opening unauthorized credit card accounts, improperly charging extra fees, and withholding rewards, according to US regulators.

The bank was fined by the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau for "systematically double-dipping on fees imposed on customers with insufficient funds in their account."

BofA also failed to pay advertised credit card reward bonuses, and enrolled customers in new cards without their authorization or knowledge, the CFPB said in a statement.

The $150 million is broken down into a $90 million penalty to the CFPB, and $60 million to the Office of the Comptroller of the Currency. The bank did not admit to or deny the allegations as part of the settlement, Bloomberg reports. READ MORE

Central banks move gold back home after freeze on Russian assets -The News

The global marketplace for gold is quickly turning into a giant game of financial chess. As financial tensions - along with future uncertainties - continue to build up pressure, it would appear no one wants to be stuck holding the bag if and when a shift occurs.

London: A growing number of countries are bringing their physical gold reserves back home to avoid Russian-style sanctions on their foreign assets, while increasing their purchases of the precious metal as a hedge against high levels of inflation.

Central banks globally made record purchases of gold in 2022 and into the first quarter of this year, as they hunted for safe havens from high inflation and volatile bond prices, according to a survey of sovereign investors by asset manager Invesco. China and Turkey together accounted for almost one-fifth of these purchases.

Concerned by the decision by the US and others to freeze Russian assets, central banks opted to buy physical gold rather than derivatives or exchange traded funds that track the metal’s price.

They also preferred to hold it in their own country as global tensions increased. Invesco’s survey found that 68 percent of central banks held part of their gold reserves domestically, up from 50 percent in 2020. In five years, that figure is expected to rise to 74 percent, the survey showed. READ MORE

Kentucky man finds over 700 Civil War-era coins buried in his cornfield -Live Science

It's always nice to hear some good news. I think it's safe to say this gentleman from Kentucky is grinning ear to ear. He stumbled upon a literal good fortune. It's another "shining" example of the lasting, perpetual value one maintains while owning gold.

by Kristina Killgrove

A Kentucky man got the surprise of his life while digging in his field earlier this year: a cache of over 700 coins from the American Civil War era.

The "Great Kentucky Hoard" includes hundreds of U.S. gold pieces dating to between 1840 and 1863, in addition to a handful of silver coins. In a short video, the man who discovered the hoard — whose identity and specific location have not been revealed to the public — says, "This is the most insane thing ever: Those are all $1 gold coins, $20 gold coins, $10 gold coins," as he aims his camera at the artifacts tumbling out of the dirt.

According to the Numismatic Guaranty Co. (NGC), which certified the coins' authenticity, and GovMint, where the coins were sold, 95% of the hoard is composed of gold dollars, along with 20 $10 Liberty coins and eight $20 Liberty coins. The rarest is the 1863-P $20 1-ounce gold Liberty coin. Just one of these coins can go for six figures at auction, and the Great Kentucky Hoard boasts 18 of them. NGC's website notes that the $20 Liberty coin, which circulated from 1850 to 1907, was minted by the Treasury Department after gold was discovered in California. The $20 Liberty coins in the hoard are even rarer because they do not include "In God We Trust," which was added in 1866 after the end of the Civil War. READ MORE

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7.11.23 - Corporate Bankruptcies Reach Highest Level Since 2010

Gold last traded at $1,932 an ounce. Silver at $23.12 an ounce.

EDITOR'S NOTE: People often look to the stock market to gauge the health and strength of the economy. We've seen some healthy gains in the stock market recently, but with corporate bankruptcies reaching their highest level since 2010, something isn't adding up.

32 Tons! Corporate Bankruptcies Reach Highest Level Since 2010, Bank Term Funding Program At $102 BILLION (Total Debt & Unfunded Liabilities = $224.5 TRILLION) -Confounded Interest

The US has passed the 32 trillion mark in national debt, and is going much, much higher. More like 32 tons on the back of taxpayers. When we add unfunded liabilities like Social Security, Medicare and Medicaid, the tab soars to $224.5 TRILLION.

New data show that a growing number of U.S. firms are collapsing under the weight of higher interest rates as corporate bankruptcies reached their highest first-half levels since 2010.

In the first six months of 2023, there were 340 corporate bankruptcies, topping every other comparable span in 13 years, according to S&P Global Market Intelligence. This is up 93 percent from the same time a year ago and higher than in 2020, when there was a spike during the early days of the coronavirus pandemic.

There were 54 recorded corporate bankruptcy filings in June, unchanged from the 54 bankruptcies in May. Last month, some of the most notable companies to submit filings were Lordstown Motors, Rockport Co., Instant Brands Acquisition Holdings, and iMedia Brands. READ MORE

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7.10.23 - BRICS To Intro Gold-Backed Reserve Currency

Gold last traded at $1,925 an ounce. Silver at $23.13 an ounce.

EDITOR'S NOTE: It's an understatement to say that banks and their governments are concerned about maintaining stability in their economies. Central banks have been buying physical gold at a record pace and now BRICS - which has already attracted a strong following - has said they're going to back their currency with gold. This comes as no shock as currencies around the world are faltering.

The Gold Standard Is Back: BRICS To Intro Gold-Backed Reserve Currency -Quoth the Raven

Remember back when the Russia/Ukraine war had just started, and I predicted that Russia and China would launch their own gold backed currency?

At the time, this idea sounded completely foreign, and I was ridiculed for bringing it up. Today, it just become [sic] reality. 41+ countries look like they could be returning to a gold standard.

The images plastered all over RT this weekend had headlines like “New Money, New World” and “Gold Standard Will Be Of Great Benefit To Strengthening New Singly Currency”.

“The official announcement is expected to be made during the BRICS summit in August in South Africa,” Kitco reported over the weekend.

"At first glance, a new transaction unit, backed by gold, sounds like good money – and it could be, first and foremost, a major challenge to the US dollar's hegemony," Thorsten Polleit, chief economist at Degussa, said.

He continued: "For making the new currency as good as gold, a truly sound currency, it must be convertible into gold on demand. I am not sure whether this is what Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa have in mind. Using gold as money, the unit of account would be a true game changer, no doubt about it. It could lead to a sharp devaluation of many fiat currencies vis-à-vis the yellow metal (including the BRICS fiat currencies), and it could catapult up goods prices in terms of fiat currencies. It could be a shock to the global fiat money system. I am not sure that this is what the BRICS wish to achieve."

The official announcement of the new currency is expected in August during the BRICS summit in South Africa. READ MORE

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7.7.23 - CBDCs Will Open Pandora's Box of Privacy Concerns

Gold last traded at $1,924 an ounce. Silver at $23.09 an ounce.

EDITOR'S NOTE: There is a growing chorus of highly experienced financial minds expressing concern over CBDCs. Not only are they worried about the policy and stability issues that may arise, they are also concerned about the massive threat to our privacy. A CBDC would be a legal method of constant government surveillance.

Former SEC Official Says CBDCs Will Open Pandora’s Box of Privacy Concerns, Supports Ted Cruz’s Proposed Ban -Daily Hodl

by Rhodilee Jean Dolor

A former official of the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) says the establishment of a central bank digital currency (CBDC) is possibly the most absurd financial idea in the history of monetary policy.

Ex-chief of the SEC Office of Internet Enforcement John Reed Stark says the CBDC does not solve any problem at all since trusted digital currencies regulated by the government authorities and US-registered financial institutions already exist.

He says what the digital dollar would actually do is give rise to policy issues.

“The risks of a CBDC remain myriad and raise a variety of important policy questions, including how a CIBC might affect financial-sector market structure, the cost and availability of credit, the safety and stability of the financial system and the efficacy of monetary policy.”

According to Stark, the creation of a CBDC will also unleash a multitude of privacy and security concerns, akin to opening a Pandora’s box. READ MORE

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7.6.23 - Solar Demand Squeezing Global Silver Supply

Gold last traded at $1,911 an ounce. Silver at $22.74 an ounce.

EDITOR'S NOTE: Gold and silver prices tend to trend in the same direction over time. That being said, there are other demand factors that can contribute to independent price movements as well. In this instance, it is the demand for silver from the solar power industry. As supplies from mines have steadily been drying up, investment and industrial demand is on the rise.

Silver Bulls Best Friend Is Solar Demand Squeezing Global Supplies

By Tyler Durden

Several months ago, we published a note titled, "Solar Energy Production Could Require Most Of The Global Silver Reserves By 2050." Last month we cited a report that said, "The growing demand for silver in the solar power industry will likely put a significant squeeze on supply in the coming years, and the current price of silver does not reflect the likely shortages."

Even though solar is still a small part of total silver demand, it's increasing fast. A report from The Silver Institute, an industry association, found silver demand from the solar industry will be around 14% this year, up from 5% in 2014. Much of the demand is from Chinese solar manufacturing plants as the world races to decarbonize power grids in the name of 'climate change.' READ MORE

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7.5.23 - Did the BRICS Just Declare Independence?

Gold last traded at $1,915 an ounce. Silver at $23.12 an ounce.

Visualizing Gold Price and U.S. Debt (1970-2023) -Visual Capitalist

If you are of the belief that the US government will continue to spend itself into more debt and eventually oblivion, and are looking for an investment that might just provide a hedge against it; gold may be the answer for you. The charts in this commentary illustrate the price moves in gold upward as the government embarks on their debt spending. Call Swiss America today to place or add to your position in gold to be ready for its next move.

by Bruno Venditti

Graphics/Design: Miranda Smith

Gold has long been considered a store of value and a hedge against economic uncertainty.

Over the past five decades, its price has been closely intertwined with concerns surrounding the growing U.S. public debt.

The graphic above uses data from In Gold We Trust and the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis to explore the relationship between gold price and the U.S. national debt. READ MORE

Yellen Panics as BRICS Independence Day Comes -ZeroHedge

BRICS is creating more havoc for the US and the current administration. Yellen is working feverishly on damage control as the continued strengthening of BRICS is a persistent threat to the dollar. But is this too little, too late?

Did the BRICS Just Declare Independence? Negotiations are Escalating

Authored by GoldFix

Good afternoon. Holiday weekends are frequently times when news that has to get out finally gets out. Historically, for example, bad economic data is famously dumped on Fridays. This Independence Day, however, may have a whole new meaning in the BRICS part of the world.

SIGNIFICANT MONETARY GEOPOLITICAL STORIES

Over the last 2 days no less than 4 important developing stories have been released covering monetary multiparty and damaged western supply chains.

• GF: China Owns The Whole Solar Supply Chain- Analysis
• FP: BRICS Gold Currency is Coming
• Bloomberg: Silver Shortage and Solar Demand
• Reuters: India refiner using Yuan for Oil now

Additionally and perhaps most significantly, ZH reports Yellen is headed to Beijing in a hurry to meet Xi this week. READ MORE

Are You Gambling With Your Retirement Account? -Economic Prism

Gambling with one's retirement savings is not a good idea. The goal of retirement planning should be safety and sustainable growth. There is no argument that the stock market is overvalued at the moment; and it may very well continue to climb and become even further overvalued. Even if it does, it may not be wise to have all of your eggs in the stock market basket for when the eventual correction occurs. Read on to see what advice the team at Economic Prism has for your short term investment strategy.

by MN Gordon

And just like that. The year is half over. Can you believe it?

Hardly the blink of an eye ago we were putting the final touches on our one great big nasty prediction for 2023 – that China will invade Taiwan.

Of course, this hasn’t come true – yet. And, quite frankly, we hope it doggone never does. But with fools like Anthony Blinken in charge, the unthinkable could become a reality.

Certainly, the stock market, as measured by the S&P 500, has performed well. As of market close on Thursday (June 29), the S&P 500 is up 14.51 percent year-to-date. Not bad.

But the real action is over in the technology sector. Year-to-date, the NASDAQ is up 29.86 percent. Did you capitalize on it? READ MORE

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6.30.23 - Which Central Banks Have Issued Digital Currencies

Gold last traded at $1,918 an ounce. Silver at $22.76 an ounce.

EDITOR'S NOTE: Digital currencies have long been touted as a private, decentralized medium of exchange - no tracking, no oversight and no government intervention. However, these emerging CBDCs are far from free. If you thought governments could track spending and tax their citizens before, think again. Swiss America has been sounding the alarm on the War on Cash for over a decade now, and we are sadly watching it come true before our eyes. Before, banks were required to spy on us for the government; with CBDCs, we will share our information with the government willingly. It's not farfetched to believe a government who can watch every dime we spend won't decide it doesn't agree with the way we are spending it. Add this to the growing list of reasons to hold precious metals: one of the few remaining private stores of wealth.

Where Central Banks Have Issued Digital Currencies -ZeroHedge

Central bank digital currencies are controlled by governments like traditional currencies are and therefore represent the polar opposite of the idea of decentralized, self-sovereign bitcoins.

As Statista's Katharina Buchholz reports, several small nations and - since October 2021, Nigeria - have launched central bank digital currencies, and several more populous countries are getting ready to jump aboard a different crypto hype train.

The European Union today is proposing a legal framework for its planned launch of the digital euro. According to the Central Bank Digital Currency Tracker by Atlantic Council, concrete plans to launch a CBDC were also recorded in Canada, Brazil and the United States, among others.

Countries which are already in a CBDC pilot phase include Russia, Thailand, India, South Korea, Sweden, the United Arab Emirates and Saudi Arabia, according to the source. It is unclear, however, which of these programs could see a proper launch next.

CBDCs were introduced even earlier than in Nigeria in Caribbean countries, for example in the Bahamas and nations and territories that share the currency of the Eastern Caribbean dollar. The Sand Dollar of the Bahamas was the first central bank digital currency of the world upon its launch in 2019 and cleared the way for a rapid adoption around the region’s small nations. READ MORE

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6.29.23 - Why we could easily see $5,000 gold

Gold last traded at $1,908 an ounce. Silver at $22.58 an ounce.

EDITOR'S NOTE: We are all familiar with the notion of history repeating itself, and over the course of our lifetimes, we will likely witness it. Knowing this can help us prepare, learn and hopefully gain a better understanding of the world around us. See why some are suggesting that history repeating itself this time could result in $5,000 per ounce price for gold.

Why we could easily see $5,000+ gold -ZeroHedge

by Simon Black

On the 18th of September, in the year 324 AD, 52-year old Constantine the Great finally won the victory that he had been fighting for two decades to achieve: sole control of the Roman Empire.

At that point the Roman Empire had suffered more than a century of extreme turmoil– recession, inflation, invasion, humiliation, and endless civil wars, just to name a few of its challenges.

But after finally vanquishing his remaining political opponents, Constantine was ready to turn the page and institute some much needed reforms. And one of his first orders of business was to restore much-needed confidence in the currency.

Previous emperors had heavily debased Rome’s coinage to almost hilarious levels; the silver content in the denarius coin, for example, had been reduced 98% purity, all the way down to just 5% purity.

Nobody trusted Roman currency anymore. So in order to restore confidence, Constantine turned to gold. READ MORE

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6.28.23 - The Fed's "One Weird Trick"

Gold last traded at $1,910 an ounce. Silver at $22.75 an ounce.

A recession indicator that predicted every downturn since 1969 started flashing months ago—and a Wall Street veteran warns it always works on a delay -Yahoo! Finance

Will we officially be in a recession by October? All indicators point to 'yes'. It's hard to ignore the signs of a downtrend ahead any longer. The best preparation? A well diversified portfolio including tangible assets, like precious metals; and a healthy dose of hope and patience while weathering the storm.

by Will Daniel

Wall Street analysts and investment strategists love to use “recession indicators.” These simple statistics that serve as evidence of (potential) impending economic disaster can be invaluable tools for managing risk. Just look at one of the most famous of them all: the yield curve. Since 1969, a yield curve inversion has preceded every U.S. recession.

The yield curve is a graphical representation of the relationship between the yields of related bonds—most commonly the U.S. 10-year Treasury and two-year Treasury. Typically, shorter-term bonds have lower yields than longer-term bonds because investors are taking more risk by locking up their money for longer. This relationship is represented by an upward sloping curve. But sometimes that yield curve can invert, meaning long-term bond yields drop below short-term bond yields.

Megan Horneman, chief investment officer at Verdence Capital Advisors, warned Monday that even after nearly a year, investors shouldn’t be “complacent” about this “historical recession indicator.” READ MORE

The Fed’s “One Weird Trick” -Daily Reckoning

We have all seen the "wealth effect" discussed in this article on full display over the last couple of years. Debt-based consumption was easy and cheap. Why not get a newer car/bigger house/RV or boat? But those days are coming to an end and the consequences are headed our way. The bubbles created by low-cost credit are near bursting and the Fed no longer has any tricks up its sleeve.

by Charles Hugh Smith - Of Two Minds blog

The U.S. economy has been saved time and again over the past two decades by this one weird trick:

“Bringing Demand Forward” by lowering interest rates and lending standards so Americans could continue to buy stuff they didn’t really need because the monthly payment dropped as interest rates were pushed toward zero.

Every time the economy faltered, the Federal Reserve would push interest rates down to “Bring Demand Forward” by goosing debt-based consumption: OK, so you don’t actually need a new car, but come on, the new car loan is only 1.9%, you can afford the monthly nut.

Or hey, it’s zero-percent financing for a couple years. Just go for it, get that new vehicle. Live large, you can swing it.

Flooding the economy with low-cost credit doesn’t just “Bring Demand Forward”; it also juices speculative bubbles across the entire spectrum, from cryptocurrencies to commercial real estate. READ MORE

How long will the dollar last as the world’s default currency? The BRICS nations are gathering in South Africa this August with it on the agenda -Fortune

Could a new global currency really challenge the dollar's role in the global economy? It seems farfetched but a joint BRICS currency may just have the power to unseat King Dollar.

by Mihaela Papa and The Conversation

Could a new currency be set to challenge the dominance of the dollar? Perhaps, but that may not be the point.

In August 2023, South Africa will host the leaders of Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa – a group of nations known by the acronym BRICS. Among the items on the agenda is the creation of a new joint BRICS currency.

As a scholar who has studied the BRICS countries for over a decade, I can certainly see why talk of a BRICS currency is, well, gaining currency. The BRICS summit comes as countries across the world are confronting a changing geopolitical landscape that is challenging the traditional dominance of the West. And while the BRICS countries have been seeking to reduce their reliance on the dollar for over a decade, Western sanctions on Russia after its invasion of Ukraine have accelerated the process. READ MORE

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6.27.23 - Is the banking crisis over?

Gold last traded at $1,913 an ounce. Silver at $22.86 an ounce.

EDITOR'S NOTE: The banking crisis is over, right? Not according to many banking experts who fear we've only seen the tip of the iceberg. One of the greatest vulnerabilities the banks are facing is continued inflationary pressure. This level of stress on an already strained system is not sustainable for very much longer.

Banks face their worst losses since the 2008 crisis if inflation cannot be tamed, says the world’s brain trust of central bankers -Yahoo!Finance

by Christiaan Hetzner

The banking crisis sparked by the collapse of three major U.S. lenders in the spring may be out of the headlines, but it’s not over.

The normally staid economists at the Bank for International Settlements, a type of brain trust for the world’s fiat-based monetary system, is not a group prone to employing alarmist language.

Yet officials called for an urgent “change in mindset” among advanced economies now that the limits of Keynesian-style expansion fueled by debt has been exhausted.

“The global economy is at a critical juncture,” said [sic] BIS general manager Agustín Carstens told journalists on Sunday during the presentation of its annual report.

A toxic mixture of soaring inflation not seen since at least the 1970s, as well as historically high public and private debt, cannot be sustained for much longer. READ MORE

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6.23.23 - A bubble in the stock market like no other?

Gold last traded at $1,921 an ounce. Silver at $22.42 an ounce.

EDITOR'S NOTE: A rising market is welcome news when it comes to our investments; unless that rise is in the form of a bubble. Is the stock market in a bubble? It's still just speculation. But this piece does break down what historically goes into bubble making and bubble bursting.

We may be seeing the formation of a bubble in the stock market like no other -The Globe and Mail

by George Athanassakos

Back in 1923, writer and journalist Edwin Lefevre wrote, “Nowhere does history indulge in repetitions so often or so uniformly as in Wall Street. When you read contemporary accounts of booms or panics, the one thing that strikes you most forcibly is how little either stock speculation or stock speculators today differ from yesterday. The game does not change and neither does human nature.”

The S&P 500 has been on a tear since the beginning of the year and recently it entered bull-market territory. But if you exclude the U.S.’s seven largest tech stocks, which were up more than 53 per cent year to date, the S&P 500 was mostly flat over the period.

Many wonder whether we have we seen this movie before and whether another bubble is being formed, one that will target the most profitable U.S. tech stocks. For the first time in the last 40 years, we may be witnessing a bubble forming around highly profitable companies, as opposed to prior bubbles that were centred on unprofitable ones. It has happened before, though, involving the 50 large-cap/blue chip stocks on the New York Stock Exchange, which in the 1960s propelled the bull market higher and subsequently crashed and underperformed. READ MORE

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6.22.23 - $572,000,000,000 Added to US Debt in Two Weeks

Gold last traded at $1,914 an ounce. Silver at $22.25 an ounce.

EDITOR'S NOTE: It's hard to wrap one's head around how huge the national debt has become. $30 trillion is almost inconceivable ... until you see it spelled out in this headline. Looking at it from this perspective, it's little wonder why the dollar is falling out of favor quickly.

$572,000,000,000 Added to US Debt in Two Weeks, Total Debt Now Exceeds China, Japan, Germany and UK’s Combined GDP - The Daily Hodl

by Alex Richardson

Over half a trillion more dollars have been dumped into the US government’s debt spiral in the last two weeks alone.

According to the latest numbers from FiscalData, as of June 15th, the US national debt was $32.03 trillion, a $571 billion rise from June 1st’s recording of $31.46 trillion.

Total US debt is now larger than the total gross domestic product of China, Japan, Germany and the United Kingdom combined, and amounts to $244,000 per American household.

At current interest rates, the US is now paying over $2 billion a day in interest payments, and even if every American household contributed $1,000 a month to pay off the debt, it would still take 20 years to pay off.

While the US’ debt issue has received increased attention from both analysts and regular Americans, most experts still expect the problem to intensify over the next decade. (READ MORE)

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6.21.23 - The Biggest Monetary Shock in 52 Years

Gold last traded at $1,934 an ounce. Silver at $22.71 an ounce.

The Biggest Monetary Shock in 52 Years -Daily Reckoning

BRICS+ currency has been gaining momentum for quite some time now. Gold has served as the great stabilizer of all assets for countries, banks and individuals for centuries - it's no wonder the BRICS nations wants a gold-backed currency. This is why everyone should have a core position in metals.

by James Rickards

I recently revealed that the so-called “BRICS+” countries will announce the creation of a new currency at its annual leaders’ summit conference on August 22–24.

This will be the biggest upheaval in international finance since 1971. It’s taking direct aim at the dollar.

Quite simply, the world is unprepared for this geopolitical shock wave.

It appears likely that the new BRICS+ currency will be linked to a weight of gold. This plays to the strengths of BRICS members Russia and China. These countries are the two largest gold producers in the world, and are ranked sixth and seventh respectively among the 100 nations with gold reserves.

One difficulty in considering the impact of the new BRICS currency on the dollar is that all dollar indexes compare currency to currency. But that’s meaningless since the dollar, euro and sterling could all suffer from a loss of confidence at the same time.

If gold goes from $2,000 to $10,000 per ounce, that is better understood as an 80% devaluation of the dollar: from 0.0005 ounces per dollar to 0.0001 ounces per dollar. That’s a collapse of confidence but you’ll miss it if you’re looking at euros or yen.

Those currencies will all be collapsing at the same time. READ MORE

Negative Equity Surges: More Consumers Find Themselves In Underwater Auto Loans -ZeroHedge

The debt woes continue. Consumer debt pressures have been building for quite some time now, and the fallout is not far off. This wave is expected to come by way of auto loan defaults.

by Tyler Durden

Millions of Americans who took out loans to purchase overpriced used vehicles during the pandemic are at risk of going underwater. Financing costs are soaring, and used car values are sliding, culminating into a perfect storm as only the tip of the negative equity iceberg appears.

On Tuesday, credit reporting firm TransUnion and market researcher J.D. Power published a new report warning in recent quarters that used car loan-to-value ratios (LTVs) at origination have "trended in the wrong direction for consumers."

Originating LTVs in the first quarter averaged 125%, up from 110% for used cars in the same quarter a year ago—and up 21 percentage points versus the same period in 2021. A lower LTV indicates the borrower has more equity in their auto loan, and one above 100% means the loan exceeds the value. READ MORE

'I Can Go Into Anyone’s House At Any Time’: Judiciary Committee Investigates IRS Agent Threatening Taxpayer -ZeroHedge

None of us enjoy dealing with the IRS. In this frightening commentary, we find an IRS agent lying and threatening to get what he wanted.

by Naveen Athrappully via The Epoch Times

An IRS agent used a fake identity to approach and threaten a taxpayer, following which House Judiciary Committee chairman Rep. Jim Jordan (R-Ohio) sent a letter to IRS Commissioner Daniel Werfel seeking further information on the incident.

The incident occurred on April 25, 2023, when an IRS agent identifying as “Bill Haus” with the agency’s Criminal Division visited the home of a taxpayer residing in Marion, Ohio, according to the June 16 letter (pdf). The agent initially lied to the taxpayer that he was visiting with regard to her improper estate filings and that she owed a “substantial amount” to the IRS. Before his visit, the taxpayer had not received any notification from the tax agency regarding unpaid dues on the estate.

After the taxpayer showed proof that she had paid all taxes for the estate, agent Haus then said that the true purpose of his visit was not related to the estate but that the taxpayer allegedly had several delinquent tax return filings. He then proceeded to provide documents for the taxpayer to fill out—including submitting sensitive personal information.

The taxpayer immediately called her attorney, who asked Agent Haus to leave her home. The agent responded aggressively, insisting that “I am an IRS agent, I can be at and go into anyone’s house at any time I want to be.” READ MORE

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6.20.23 - What's Next for Stocks?

Gold last traded at $1,936 an ounce. Silver at $23.15 an ounce.

EDITOR'S NOTE: Are we headed for a recession? Are we already in one? Are we narrowly avoiding it? You can find someone answering yes to all of these questions. But if history does repeat itself, this indicator has been right on the money before and likely will be again.

This Economic Indicator Has Flawlessly Predicted Directional Stock Movements for 70 Years. Here's What It Says Happens Next -The Motley Fool

If history rhymes, this indicator has a very clear message for where the Dow, S&P 500, and Nasdaq Composite are headed.

Wall Street can be a fickle thing when it's examined over short timelines. In 2021, the 30-component Dow Jones Industrial Average (^DJI -0.72%), broad-based S&P 500 (^GSPC -0.47%), and growth-stock-fueled Nasdaq Composite (^IXIC -0.16%) all surged to record-closing highs. This was followed up by the worst performance in 14 years for all three indexes in 2022.

Although a small number of megacap tech stocks have had a phenomenal start to 2023, many investors are still left to wonder when the 2022 bear market will be firmly put into the rear-view mirror and a period of uncertainty will come to a close. In other words, investors would love to know where stocks are headed next. READ MORE

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6.19.23 - 20 New Countries Apply to Join BRICS Alliance

Gold last traded at $1,950 an ounce. Silver at $23.96 an ounce.

EDITOR'S NOTE: 20 more countries are looking to jump aboard the BRICS bandwagon. This move seems to be more politically motivated rather than just a desire for a better alternative. Regardless of the reason, the repeated abandonment of the dollar by foreign countries is not likely to have a favorable outcome for the US.

20 New Countries Apply to Join BRICS Alliance -Watcher.Guru

By Joshua Ramos

With the BRICS Summit on the horizon, expansion is set to be a vital talking point. Moreover, as interested nations continue to grow, Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Sergey Ryabkov says that 20 new countries have applied to join the BRICS alliance.

The bloc has been growing in prevalence over the past several months. Now, its appeal has seemingly reached a fever pitch. Subsequently, the August summit is set to observe unfolding discourse regarding the membership process for a host of countries.

2023 has seen the BRICS economic bloc dominate headlines. Attempting to challenge the unipolar order of global politics, the bloc has embraced competition. Moreover, its de-dollarization efforts have seemingly grown and been adopted by several countries. All with similar hopes of lessening international reliance on the greenback. (READ MORE)

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6.16.23 - Several US Agencies Hit In Global Cyberattack

Gold last traded at $1,958 an ounce. Silver at $24.13 an ounce.

EDITOR'S NOTE: Your finances and investments have yet another threat to contend with, cyber attack. It seems the U.S. government is finding new and inventive ways to let down the public. Add this to the growing list of reasons why having an asset you hold in your own hands is the best move possible in today's unsecured world.

Several US Agencies Hit In Global Cyberattack Alongside Universities, Hospitals -ZeroHedge

by Tyler Durden

On Thursday the US Cybersecurity and Infrastructure Security Agency announced that "several" US federal government agencies were hit in what's being acknowledged as a global cyberattack.

The attack utilized a vulnerability in widely used software, with the agencies have "experienced intrusions affecting their MOVEit applications," according to a US government statement. “We are working urgently to understand impacts and ensure timely remediation," Eric Goldstein, a top US cybersecurity official, said.

Initial suspicion has fallen on a Russian-speaking ransomware group, known as CLOP, which has claimed responsibility for a similar ongoing hacking campaign which targeted entities ranging from BBC to British Airways to Shell oil, to schools and hospitals, as well as some US state governments in the Midwest.

CNN reviews of a recent and ongoing hacking campaign as follows:

But the news adds to a growing tally of victims of a sprawling hacking campaign that began two weeks ago and has hit major US universities and state governments. The hacking spree mounts pressure on federal officials who have pledged to put a dent in the scourge of ransomware attacks that have hobbled schools, hospitals and local governments across the US.

As part of this, the famous Johns Hopkins University and Health System has also been deeply impacted. (READ MORE)

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6.15.23 - JP Morgan, "Buy More Gold"

Gold last traded at $1,957 an ounce. Silver at $23.88 an ounce.

EDITOR'S NOTE: Where is the best place to invest your money in today's economic climate? According to JP Morgan, the best place is gold ... not equities. But why? The reasons they are suggesting this apply to all of us.

JPMorgan Says Cut Equities and Buy More Gold -Yahoo!Finance

The US debt ceiling scare, rising recession risks and Federal Reserve hawks are just a handful of reasons why JPMorgan Chase is advising investors to cut exposure to stocks and hold more gold and cash.

With the macro environment taking on more and more risk, JPMorgan strategists are trimming exposure to US equities and increasing its cash holdings by 2%. The multinational bank is also shifting away from energy and moving full steam ahead towards gold.

JPMorgan’s chief global markets strategist Marko Kolanovic said that the risk-reward for equities is poor due to a number of factors including elevated recession risk, stretched valuations, high interest rates and tightening liquidity and pointed to gold's safe-haven properties as a hedge against these risks.

Of course, JPMorgan isn’t the only bank that’s bullish on gold. According to a new survey from the World Gold Council, up to 24% of central banks were looking to raise gold holdings this year. READ MORE

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6.14.23 - The Great Dollar Paradox

Gold last traded at $1,944 an ounce. Silver at $23.92 an ounce.

Saudi Arabia and China are part of a multipolar world order, and their mutual interests are ‘strong and rising,’ minister says-CNBC

A strong bond has been developing between Saudi Arabia and China. You may wonder what relevance this has in our lives. A stronger bond between these powers stands in direct opposition to the future strength of the dollar. A weaker dollar is something few can afford.

by Natasha Turak

Saudi Arabia sees China as a key partner in a multipolar world — with the two countries expected to only come closer as their common interests grow, Saudi Minister of Investment Khalid Al-Falih told CNBC.

“This is, in a way, a multipolar global order that has emerged — it’s not emerging. China is a significant player in it,” Al-Falih told CNBC’s Dan Murphy during the Arab-China Business Conference in Riyadh Tuesday, now in its 10th year.

A multipolar world in this context signifies a global system that isn’t dominated by the West or defined as a struggle between two major powers, as it was during the Cold War.

“We like to believe, and I think it’s been proven, that the kingdom is a significant part of this multipolar world that has emerged. And we’re going to play our part, not only in developing our own economy, but also developing our region, and spreading what we have in terms of development opportunities, also to Africa, Central Asia, the Indian subcontinent,” he said. “And we believe that economic cooperation between China and Saudi Arabia and the GCC (Gulf Cooperation Council), and the entire Arab region, will be a significant part of that.” READ MORE

The Great Dollar Paradox - Daily Reckoning

With all the negative news about the dollar, why hasn't it crashed yet and why does it seem to be maintaining some semblance of strength? Is this sustainable?

by Jim Rickards

The de-dollarization story is everywhere.

You see it in publications from The New York Times to The Economist and in financial media including CNBC, Fox Business and Bloomberg.

The idea is that countries around the world are preparing to ditch the dollar. This takes many forms including efforts by China to pay for imported oil from Saudi Arabia and the UAE with yuan and a major bilateral agreement between China and Brazil that allows each country to pay for exports from the other using their local currencies.

Russia got in the act by agreeing to receive rupees for oil delivered to India and paying for imports from China with rubles. All these efforts will be converging and coming to a head in late August when the BRICS (Brazil, Russia, India, China, South Africa and other invited countries) meet to announce a new BRICS+ currency linked to gold.

With all of that going on, one might expect to find the dollar in freefall. Yet that’s not the case.

The dollar has been strong lately and I expect it to get stronger in the months ahead. What gives? How can the dollar be under global attack and yet be strong at the same time? READ MORE

US Consumers Are Facing A Crushing Debt Servicing Problem -ZeroHedge

Continued concerns about US households and their ability to maintain the debt they hold. Recent bank failures should have tightened the extension of credit by banks but it doesn't seem to have slowed down. What happens if the borrowers cannot pay it back en masse?

by Tyler Durden

US econowatchers have been stumped by a bizarre divergence in the US economy in recent months. On one hand, the aftermath of the March bank crisis which destroyed two of the largest California banks, led to a crippling tightening in credit standards at least according to the SLOOS survey. On the other hand, after a brief airpocket three months ago when credit card debt saw its lowest increase in over two years, revolving consumer credit has exploded higher and the last two months have seen a near-record increase...even as the interest rate on credit cards has jumped to the highest on record.

How is it possible that despite the surge in total credit card debt, and the surge in interest rate on credit card debt, that consumers would continue to spend with the same reckless abandon they exhibited in the aftermath of the covid crash when trillions in new stimmies were flooding bank accounts and rates were at zero? This is a question even veteran Goldman traders are struggling with, to wit: READ MORE

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6.13.23 - Still in a Bull Market?

Gold last traded at $1,943 an ounce. Silver at $23.67 an ounce.

EDITOR'S NOTE: In the midst of our current stock market rally, more negative news surfaces ... which makes one wonder, can this rally continue? CPI tumbles, our cost of goods continue to rise, and inflation continues to beat up on stagnant wages. If the economy keeps spitting out these kind of numbers, it's only a matter of time before reality gives current market optimism a swift kick in the gut.

CPI Tumbles To 2-Year Lows, But Goods Prices Reaccelerate; Inflation Outpaces Wages For 26th Straight Month -ZeroHedge

With CPI set for a 'historic drop', the market has FOMO'd into this print (and tomorrow's FOMC) with the headline print expected to tumble from +4.9% YoY to +4.1% YoY. However, The Fed's new favorite signal from The BLS is Core Services CPI Ex-Shelter, and that declined to +4.6% YoY - lowest since March 2022

The headline CPI was expected to rise 0.1% MoM (+4.1% YoY) and it did, but the YoY print dropped to 4.0%. That is the 11th straight monthly decline in the YoY print to the lowest since March 2021...(CLICK TO VIEW CHARTS AND FULL STORY)

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6.12.23 - Visualizing Gold Performance and U.S. Debt

Gold last traded at $1,957 an ounce. Silver at $24.07 an ounce.

EDITOR'S NOTE: If you are of the belief that the US government will continue to spend itself into more debt and eventually oblivion, and are looking for an investment that might just provide a hedge against it; gold may be the answer for you. The charts in this commentary illustrate the price moves in gold upward as the government embarks on their debt spending. Call Swiss America today to place or add to your position in gold to be ready for its next move.

Visualizing Gold Price and U.S. Debt (1970-2023) -Visual Capitalist

Visualizing Gold Performance and U.S. Debt (1970-2023)

Gold has long been considered a store of value and a hedge against economic uncertainty.

Over the past five decades, its price has been closely intertwined with concerns surrounding the growing U.S. public debt.

The graphic above uses data from In Gold We Trust and the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis to explore the relationship between gold price and the U.S. national debt. (CLICK TO VIEW)

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6.9.23 - CRE Lending at a Standstill

Gold last traded at $1,960 an ounce. Silver at $24.28 an ounce.

EDITOR'S NOTE: Another crushing blow to the already crumbling commercial real estate market, lending is essentially non-existent. And that's for the robust, credit-worthy borrowers; not just the little guys still struggling to pay off debt that keeps getting more expensive. Defaults are happening. Credit is evaporating. Is the crash inevitable at this point?

CEO: "I Talked To 48 Lenders About Debt For A New Apartment Project. Zero Came Back With A Bid" -Zero Hedge

Less than two months ago, we conveyed an anecdote from One River Asset Management CIO Eric Peters, which showed just how challenging it has become to obtain debt funding, to wit:

“Credit started tightening six to nine months ago,” said the developer, a close friend, entrepreneur, with large residential projects across the nation. “It started with the money center banks,” he continued. “This pushed us to regional banks for our latest projects, but then SVB happened.” The market froze.

“The lender for our latest 30-story project in a tier-one city backed out, so we scrambled, and spoke with well over 100 banks. Not one will provide financing.” His firm is a leader in their market niche. A strong track record.

Confirming just how tight credit has become, and the dire observations from the Senior Loan Officers Survey that took place not long after and which showed that it is now next to impossible for even quality borrowers to obtain new credit, today Bloomberg writes that even Howard Hughes Corp., a Texas-based real estate developer that counts hedge fund manager Bill Ackman as its chairman, is struggling to find viable financing for new apartment projects as lenders pull back.

Chief Executive Officer David O’Reilly said he reached out to dozens of lenders with a pitch for a new project in The Woodlands, a master-planned community in the Houston area.

"Zero showed up and gave me a bid,” he said. “I talked to 48 of them." READ MORE

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6.8.23 - Hidden motive behind central bank gold buying

Gold last traded at $1,963 an ounce. Silver at $24.27 an ounce.

EDITOR'S NOTE: Central banks buying gold is nothing new - they've been actively doing so for quite some time now - but the motiviations behind this purchasing is shifting. It's the same reasons every one of us should have a diversified position in metals to help protect against the mounting economic uncertainties surrounding us today.

Gold revaluation & the hidden motive behind central banks’ gold buying -Mining.com

By Rick Mills

It’s no secret that central banks around the world are buying up gold.

In the first three months of the year, central banks bought a combined 228 tonnes, the most ever seen in a first quarter, World Gold Council data revealed.

This follows up on what was already a record year in 2022, during which 1,136 tonnes of gold worth some $70 billion were added to the banks’ reserves. Compared to the 450 tonnes bought during 2021, that represents a whopping 152% year-on-year increase!

The pace and consistency at which central banks are now accumulating gold, as far as we can tell, is unprecedented, given they’ve mostly been sellers throughout history. But the recent transactional trend, in particular over the past 30 years, illustrates a dramatic shift in the official attitude towards gold.

Back in the early 1990s and 2000s, central banks were continuously selling off gold as strong economic growth during that time rendered bullion less attractive than currencies in many places. Some, such as those in Western Europe, were even selling hundreds of tonnes a year!

Then the 2007–08 financial crisis came, triggering a complete 180 in the official banks’ approach to gold. From 2010 onwards, central banks have been net buyers on an annual basis. About 80% of the central banks currently hold gold as part of their international reserves. READ MORE

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6.7.23 - US National Debt Spikes by $359 billion on Day One

Gold last traded at $1,939 an ounce. Silver at $23.44 an ounce.

Commercial real estate crash still looming over US economy -Yahoo! Finance

More bad news for commercial real estate. A balloon of commercial mortgage debt comes due in 2025 which could trigger massive defaults. According to a recent tweet by Elon Musk, he believes the residential market is right behind it.

By Megan Henney

The threat of a commercial real estate market crash is hanging over the already fragile U.S. economy.

About $1.5 trillion in commercial mortgage debt is due by the end of 2025, but steeper borrowing costs, coupled with tighter credit conditions and a decline in property values brought on by remote work, have increased the risk of default.

Fitch Ratings already estimated that 35% — or $5.8 billion — of pooled securities commercial mortgages coming due between April and December 2023 will not be able to be refinanced.

"Commercial real estate is melting down fast," Tesla CEO Elon Musk said in a recent tweet. "Home values next."

Office and retail property valuations could ultimately plummet as much as 40% from peak to trough this year as higher interest rates make it harder for investors to refinance trillions in looming debt, according to Lisa Shalett, chief investment officer for Morgan Stanley Wealth Management. READ MORE

US National Debt Spikes by $359 billion on 1st Day after Debt Ceiling Suspended. TGA Begins to Get Refilled, Draining Liquidity from Market -Wolf Street

The US debt ceiling has been suspended...again. The question is, at what cost? Well we do know the actual one-day cost, which was $359 billion. This charade has been going on since 1960. Can it continue forever? If not, when will that dreaded D-day (default day) be?

By Wolf Richter

The Debt Ceiling Charade ended over the weekend when President Biden signed the “Fiscal Responsibility Act of 2023,” that suspends the debt ceiling through early 2025. A US default was “averted.” The ending of the charade is always known in advance: Congress will agree on a deal at the last minute, and the President will sign it, as it has been done for the 80th times since 1960. But the process of getting there can make you nervous. Then, after the Debt Ceiling Charade is over, we get a huge spike in the debt.

So the U.S. national debt spiked by $359 billion in one single day, the first working day after the debt ceiling was suspended, to $31.83 trillion, as of yesterday evening, reported this evening by the Treasury Department.

And that was just the beginning, there will be more hair-raising single-day spikes of the debt over the next few days: READ MORE

Visualizing the Assets and Liabilities of U.S. Banks -Visual Capitalist

We haven't heard much good news about our banking system in recent months. The health of these institutions has been in question daily. This infographic provides a little perspective.

The U.S. banking sector has more than 4,000 FDIC-insured banks that play a crucial role in the country’s economy by securely storing deposits and providing credit in the form of loans.

This infographic visualizes all of the deposits, loans, and other assets and liabilities that make up the collective balance sheet of U.S banks using data from the Federal Reserve.

With the spotlight on the banking sector after the collapses of Signature Bank, Silicon Valley Bank, and First Republic bank, understanding the assets and liabilities that make up banks’ balance sheets can give insight in how they operate and why they sometimes fail. CLICK TO VIEW

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6.6.23 - Failed banks weren't on FDIC's Problem Bank List

Gold last traded at $1,963 an ounce. Silver at $23.60 an ounce.

EDITOR'S NOTE: At this point, a government regulatory agency missing the mark shouldn't even shock us ...but it should still concern us. If the FDIC is still in the dark on the weaknesses in our banking system, what chance of staying ahead of the failures do any of us have? Alternative assets shine in times like these. Precious metals have no counterparty risk. Call your Swiss America representative to protect your wealth before the next crisis.

The Three Large Banks that Blew Up This Year Were Not Even on the FDIC’s Problem Bank List - Wall Street on Parade

By Pam Martens and Russ Martens

The second, third, and fourth largest bank failures in U.S. history occurred this year. And yet, none of the banks that blew up were on the “Problem Bank List” that is prepared quarterly by the federal bank regulator that is supposed to be on top of these things – the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation (FDIC).

When the FDIC released its quarterly Problem Bank List for the quarter ending December 31, 2022, it showed just 39 banks were a problem with combined assets of a meager $47.5 billion.

Given that rosy picture, one can understand the shock to the American people when Silicon Valley Bank blew up on March 10 with $212 billion in assets and had to be put into FDIC receivership. Two days later, on March 12, Signature Bank failed and was put into FDIC receivership. As of December 31, 2022, Signature Bank had $110.4 billion in assets.

Then on May 1, First Republic Bank failed and was put into FDIC receivership with some assets and deposits being sold to JPMorgan Chase bank. According to the FDIC, as of April 23, 2023, First Republic Bank had $229.1 billion in total assets.

Together, those three banks had $551.5 billion in assets – more than half a trillion dollars – versus the FDIC’s estimate just a few months earlier that less than $47.5 billion in bank assets were housed at “Problem Banks.” READ MORE

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6.5.23 - 5 reasons gold and silver will soar

Gold last traded at $1,962 an ounce. Silver at $23.57 an ounce.

EDITOR'S NOTE: As our financial markets continue to deteriorate around us, more and more people are touting the wisdom of taking a position in gold and silver; and are doing so themselves. There are several reasons this may be very sound advice ... read on for the top five.

5 reasons gold and silver will soar -Mining.com

by Rick Mills

Under a certain market environment, precious metals are considered must-haves in a modern investment portfolio.

What has transpired so far in 2023 has confirmed that the conditions have been set for gold and silver to soar. Their prices have both seen impressive jumps this year, with gold recently coming within cents of an all-time high, and silver also flirting with price levels last seen a decade ago.

But the precious metals rally, according to some, has only just begun. Analysts believe it’s only a matter of time before both metals set new records.

“I think it’s very plausible that we see a strong performance in gold over the coming months. The stars appear to be aligning for gold which could see it break new highs before long,” a senior market analyst at foreign exchange company Oanda said recently.

Silver is also following a similar pathway to new highs. “We expect to see record prices on an average annual basis at some point in 2024-2026,” Jeff Christian, managing partner of commodities consulting company CPM Group, said in a recent video.

These bullish outlooks are not without substance, given a wide range of market influences that are steering investors towards gold and silver. Below we examine each one of them: (READ MORE)

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6.2.23 - The Bankruptcy Of The US Government

Gold last traded at $1,948 an ounce. Silver at $23.62 an ounce.

EDITOR'S NOTE: It seems almost farfetched that the US government could go belly up but, the real question is, why wouldn't it? After years of mismanaged financial policies, entitlement programs and money printing, this scenario could prove to be inevitable.

Doug Casey On The Bankruptcy Of The US Government - ZeroHedge

by Tyler Durden

Everyone knows that the US government is bankrupt and has been for many years.

Whenever the chattering classes talk about cuts, it’s only about cuts over the course of 10 years. Which is a dodge, a fraud. Partly because most of the supposed cuts will be scheduled for the end of the period, but also because new programs, new emergencies and hidden contingencies are guaranteed to creep in, offsetting any announced cuts. The anticipated $2 trillion deficit for 2024 isn’t a temporary worst case; it’s the rosiest possible scenario.

People thought I was joking when, asked how bad the Greater Depression was going to be, I answered that it would be worse than even I thought it would be. But I haven’t been joking.

To sum up the situation, given its financial condition and the political forces working to worsen it, the US government is facing a completely impossible and irremediable situation.

The problems we face are one hundred percent caused by the US government – not by bankers or brokers, although they have been complicit. READ MORE

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6.1.23 - Escaping the dollar’s gravitational pull

Gold last traded at $1,977 an ounce. Silver at $23.87 an ounce.

EDITOR'S NOTE: The desertion of the dollar continues as the world weans itself from our volatile currency. This will have an impact on the financial future of every American; it's just yet to be seen how big that impact will be. Gold is one - if not the best - asset for protecting your wealth from whatever lies ahead.

The developing world wants to escape the dollar’s gravitational pull by shifting more reserves to gold -Yahoo!Finance

by Christiaan Hetzner

Often at the mercy of the dollar, emerging countries are looking to insulate themselves from the vagaries of U.S. Federal Reserve policy by shifting to gold—and away from the greenback.

This shift in their currency reserves poses a distinct risk to Americans, who benefit from the willingness of other countries to swap their goods in exchange for U.S. legal tender. If more nations trade among themselves using other currencies such as the Chinese yuan, the U.S. Treasury will be forced by this “de-dollarization” to pay higher interest when borrowing from foreign creditors.

Now, it appears developing countries are indeed looking to lower their dependence on the dollar, according to the results of an annual survey of central banks conducted by the World Gold Council and published on Tuesday.

The industry association, which represents some of the largest miners of the metal including Barrick Gold, Newmont, and AngloGold Ashanti, discovered a “gulf in thinking” between the monetary policymakers in advanced economies and those in developing markets. The outcome has major implications for the United States and its ability to fund large and persistent trade deficits—and therefore American living standards.

“This divergence of views is perhaps most striking in terms of the outlook for the U.S. dollar and gold,” the World Gold Council’s annual report said. Developing economies, which the group says have been the primary driver of gold buying since the 2008 global financial crisis, “appear to be more pessimistic about the U.S. dollar’s future and more optimistic about gold’s.” READ MORE

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5.31.23 - Central banks - Gold to grow as reserve asset

Gold last traded at $1,963 an ounce. Silver at $23.53 an ounce.

Just 5 stocks including Nvidia account for 96% of the S&P 500’s gains this year -Yahoo! Finance

Be careful when following averages in the financial markets; especially when it comes to the S&P as well as the Dow. They have been selectively removing and adding stocks for years based on performance to make the numbers look good. The S&P has five stocks that comprise 96% of the gains for the year, so the average had a 7.6% increase for Q1; that is if you picked the right five stocks.

by Shawn Tully

On May 30, Nvidia stole business headlines by reaching the super-exclusive $1 trillion club for the first time. The maker and designer of A.I. hardware and software touched the milestone by raising its valuation an astounding $280 billion or almost 40% since May 15, achieving a moonshot virtually unequalled in the annals of capital markets (it closed just below that mark).

But the Nvidia phenomenon has a dark side. It epitomizes the epic, oversize jump in market cap this year for all members of the Trillion-Dollar Club. Indeed, the five members now sporting 14-figure valuations are virtually devouring the S&P 500 index. That's not a good thing. Their synchronized surge is the sole force that's lifted the big cap index this year. And because it's made enterprises that were expensive before their recent takeoff even pricier, it's extremely unlikely that they can carry the the markets higher on their fewer than half a dozen shoulders going forward. Most likely, their valuations are already stretched beyond the max, and bound to snap back. And the ultimate example of the froth that's overtaken the Trillion-Dollar Club is the rise of Nvidia. READ MORE

A majority of global central banks now expect gold to grow as a reserve asset while views on the US dollar turn dimmer -Business Insider

The US dollar is still in the fight of its life facing blow after blow from all angles in these very volatile times. Central banks are continuing to beef up their position in gold as a hedge against these mounting problems. This is a strategy all of us should adopt for the sake of financial stability as well as what could be some very healthy gains.

by Filip De Mott

A clear majority of central banks around the world now see gold becoming a more prominent reserve asset, suggesting the de-dollarization trend will continue in the coming years.

According to a World Gold Council survey, 62% of banks expect gold to account for a greater share of total reserves over the next five years, compared with last year's reading of 46%.

Meanwhile, the survey found that half of respondents expect the dollar to account for 40%-50% of reserves in five years.

That would mark a drop from the third quarter, when the dollar made up 51% of reserves, with gold making up 15% of reserves.

"The rationale to increase gold holdings therefore comes as no surprise since 'interest rate levels,' 'inflation concerns,' and 'geopolitical risks' continue to be the leading factors in central bankers' reserve management decisions as they were last year," WGC wrote. READ MORE

The Suffering Is Off The Charts -The Economic Collapse Blog

Things have taken a turn for the worse. In recent months, economic activity has been dropping all over the nation, and that decline appears to be accelerating.

Things have taken a turn for the worse. In recent months, economic activity has been dropping all over the nation, and that decline appears to be accelerating. We just learned that gross domestic income has now fallen for two quarters in a row, and the Conference Board’s index of leading economic indicators has now been plummeting for 13 consecutive months. Unfortunately, when economic conditions deteriorate it is the people at the low end of the economic pyramid that get hit the hardest.

Thanks to our rapidly rising cost of living, we are seeing a dramatic explosion in the number of “working homeless” that are living out of their vehicles on a daily basis even though they are currently employed. READ MORE

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5.30.23 - Best Long-Term Investment?

Gold last traded at $1,958 an ounce. Silver at $23.19 an ounce.

EDITOR'S NOTE: Markets can rise or fall due to a variety of factors, but certainly positive investor sentiment is a great driver for growth. That's exactly what we are seeing in gold right now as investors are looking for stability. As our economic woes persist, gold will continue to shine.

Real Estate's Lead as Best Investment Shrinks; Gold Rises -Gallup

by Lydia Saad

WASHINGTON, D.C. -- More Americans continue to name real estate than stocks, gold, savings accounts/CDs or bonds when asked which is the best long-term investment.

The 34% of Americans choosing real estate this year is down sharply from last year’s record-high 45% but is on par with the typical proportion selecting real estate from 2016 to 2020, before housing prices skyrocketed during the pandemic. Higher interest rates over the past year have cooled the housing market, dampening consumer exuberance about real estate as an investment.

Meanwhile, the perception that gold is best has nearly doubled, rising from 15% in 2022 to 26% today. As a result, gold has overtaken stocks for second position. READ MORE

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5.26.23 - Protect and build your wealth

Gold last traded at $1,944 an ounce. Silver at $23.25 an ounce.

EDITOR'S NOTE: Reuters is weighing in on the gold discussion. The first line of the article says it all. We are all looking for the best opportunity for growth without sacrificing stability. As Reuters puts it, this has been the function of gold for thousands of years. Call your Swiss America representative today to learn more.

Have a safe and happy Memorial Day weekend all.

The case for gold: Protect and build your wealth -Reuters

Why buy gold?

Gold has been a proven investment for thousands of years. Why? Because gold holds its value for generations and is universally recognized as a store of wealth.

Today, gold offers investors four key benefits:

• Long-term returns: gold delivers positive returns in good times and bad, gaining ground particularly during periods of high inflation.
• Diversification: gold behaves differently from other assets, holding its own even when other assets such as bonds and the stock market are under pressure.
• Portfolio protection: gold makes portfolios less risky and helps generate higher returns.
• Liquidity: the gold market is large and accessible so gold can be bought and sold with ease, even when conditions in other markets are tough.

Delivering long-term returns and beating inflation

Gold generates robust returns across economic cycles. Looking back over the past 50 years, gold prices increased by an average of nearly 11% per year[1], comparable to the returns from US equities and considerably better than US bonds. Gold consistently outpaces inflation, too[2]. In periods of high inflation – when consumer prices are increasing by 5% or more, – gold prices on average have gained over 20%[3] (Chart 1). READ MORE

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5.25.23 - Could you be denied your own cash?

Gold last traded at $1,940 an ounce. Silver at $22.73 an ounce.

World's Largest Real Estate Market On The Brink Of Collapse: Experts -ZeroHedge

Our economic woes are not just a domestic issue, but rather a global issue. This commentary takes a look at the largest real estate market in the world - China. Some may think that China's market won't affect ours, but this couldn't be further from the truth. If their markets collapse, the ripple effect could be devastating.

Authored by Kathleen Li and Ellen Wan via The Epoch Times

Recent statistics from China’s central bank show that home buyers’ enthusiasm has fallen drastically. Despite price cuts and incentives, the world’s largest housing market continues to slump, and China’s banking sector is taking a hit on two fronts, as both defaults and prepayments rise. Meanwhile, China’s developers are starting to show the strain, with real estate giant Wanda Group making headlines this week as the value of its dollar bonds plunged.

In early 2023, the Chinese real estate market had a short-lived rebound as local governments across the country issued policies to bail out the failing real estate sector, according to the China Index Academy, a real estate research institute. By the end of April, the mortgage rate for first-home buyers in more than 40 cities had been lowered to below 4 percent.

However, after an optimistic outlook in March, April’s sales failed to live up to analysts’ expectations.

According to the April 2023 Financial Statistics Report released by China’s central bank on May 11, mortgages decreased by 241.1 billion yuan ($33.8 billion) in April. Among those, medium- and long-term household loans, mostly mortgages, decreased by 115.6 billion yuan ($16.2 billion), while short-term mortgages decreased by 125.5 billion yuan ($17.6 billion).

Public statistics show that sales of previously owned homes in China’s largest cities all showed double-digit declines in April. Among them, Beijing fell 37.3 percent; Hangzhou fell 32.7 percent; Shanghai fell 26.71 percent; and Nanjing fell 13 percent. The worst decline was in Hefei, which plunged by 40 percent. READ MORE

Withdrawing Your Own Cash? NatWest Bank Wants To Know Why... And See Proof -Bombthrower

For several years now Swiss America has been talking about banks spying on you and questioning what you do with your own money. It's not just a conspiracy; this article demonstrates exactly that point.

By Mark E. Jeftovic

A reader sent me this graphic which is circulating on social media. Whenever I see an unattributed image like this going around I want to verify it, lest it be photoshopped, a deep-fake or some derivation of “urban legend”.

Sure enough, if you go to NatWest bank’s website, right here – you see this cash withdrawal policy spelled out for all to see: READ MORE

This Economist Thinks a Recession Is Coming. It Could Be a Long One. -Barron's

According to this economist, a recession is coming and it's going to be a doozy. This really shouldn't come as a surprise given the wave of debt flowing throughout the world along with the negative financial factors adding further pressure.

Days after Silicon Valley Bank failed, Apollo Global Management APO +2.29% Chief Economist Torsten Slok turned bearish on the economic outlook, flipping from a “no-landing” scenario to expectations of a longer and deeper slowdown than markets anticipate.

Slok, who worked at the International Monetary Fund earlier in his career, is a veritable walking encyclopedia of economic statistics. On Wall Street, he is known for missives to clients about his near- and long-term economic views, derived from an analysis of government and industry data and academic research—footnotes included.

Barron’s spoke with Slok on May 10 about the stock market impact of a weakening economy, why a housing recovery might be premature, and the potential risks to the global economy of looming changes in Japan.

An edited version of the conversation follows. READ MORE

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5.24.23 - A strong dip-buying opportunity

Gold last traded at $1,957 an ounce. Silver at $23.07 an ounce.

EDITOR'S NOTE: When it comes to precious metals, gold typically dominates the headlines; however silver is considered a sympathetic metal to gold - meaning they tend to trend in the same direction. Lately, silver is capturing some headlines of its own. The same factors that have been moving gold are moving silver as well. Call your Swiss America representative to start or deepen your position in silver before it makes its big move.

Silver seen at $30/oz over next 6-12 months - Citi - Yahoo! Finance

Investing.com -- Silver could hit $30 per ounce highs over the next six months to a year, with imminent support seen from buyers eyeing value in the metal after its sharpest price slide in a month since February, Citigroup says.

“We think recent price weakness offers a strong dip-buying opportunity, reiterating our call for $30/oz silver over the next 6-12 months as U.S. growth rolls over, even if emerging markets growth stagnates,” Citi’s analysts said.

Benchmark Silver futures on New York’s Comex hovered at above mid-$23 levels in Tuesday’s trade, down almost 7% for May after cumulative gains of 20% over the past two months that took the metal above $26 at one point.

“We expect silver would rally in anticipation of the fall in U.S. interest rates and real yields that will likely accompany an anticipated rollover in U.S. growth in Q4’22 or early 2024,” Citi’s analysts said. “This should weigh on the dollar, with Citi economists expecting U.S. rates and the dollar to weaken further (DXY to 96).” READ MORE

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5.23.23 - Stocks to plunge 45%?

Gold last traded at $1,975 an ounce. Silver at $23.45 an ounce.

EDITOR'S NOTE: What does it say about the strength and the substance of our stock market when the White House is stating a default on the US debt will trigger a 45% drop in the market? If being invested in US stocks relies on the solvency of the US Government, it's a bet many of us may wish to no longer take.

The White House has warned stocks will plunge 45% and a deep recession will strike in the 3rd quarter if the US defaults -Yahoo! Finance

by Matthew Fox

A US debt default could spark a 45% crash in the stock market and generate a deep recession akin to the 2008 Great Financial Crisis, the White House's Council of Economic Advisers warned earlier this month.

The deadline for lawmakers to lift the debt limit is rapidly approaching in early June as Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen exhausts all of the department's extraordinary measures. If a debt ceiling deal isn't reached, it could mean the Treasury forgoes Social Security payments, payments to Medicare and Medicaid, and ultimately payments to US bond holders.

A potential debt default in mid-June has led to a surge in the US 1-month Treasury yield to 5.56% from its low of 3.31% last month.

"The closer the US gets to the debt ceiling, the more we expect these market-stress indicators to worsen, leading to increased volatility in equity and corporate bond markets and inhibiting firms' ability to finance themselves and engage in the productive investment that is essential for extending the current [economic] expansion," The White House CEA said in a May 3 post. READ MORE

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5.22.23 - Central banks will keep buying gold

Gold last traded at $1,972 an ounce. Silver at $23.62 an ounce.

EDITOR'S NOTE: The continued central bank purchasing of gold should come as no surprise. The more important thing to consider is why it is continuing. Central banks are buying up gold for the same reason all of us should be; inflation, market uncertainty, and dollar weakness - and that's just a few of the sound reasons to follow suit.

Central banks will keep buying gold as dollar sanctions shift long-term strategies on currency reserves -Yahoo! Finance

by Filip De Mott

Demand for gold among global central banks will likely remain strong, even after a record year of purchases, according to UBS.

In 2022, central banks bought 1,078 metric tons, the highest annual demand for gold since record-keeping began in 1950 and more than double the 450 metric tons purchased in 2021, strategists said in note on Thursday.

And based on first-quarter numbers, central banks are on pace to buy 700 metric tons this year, UBS estimated, down from 2022 but still above the average of 500 metric tons since 2010.

"We think this trend of central bank buying is likely to continue amid heightened geopolitical risks and elevated inflation," UBS said. "In fact, the US decision to freeze Russian foreign exchange reserves in the aftermath of the war in Ukraine may have led to a long-term impact on the behavior of central banks."

The US dollar traditionally has been a mainstay of central bank reserves. But the recent surge in demand for gold has been seen as a sign of de-dollarization after the greenback was used to put financial pressure on Russia for its war on Ukraine.

Among the top central banks buying gold are those in countries that are seeking to displace the dollar's dominance in global finance or trying get around Western currency sanctions, namely China, Russia and India. READ MORE

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5.19.23 - 90 Million Americans Struggle to Pay Bills

Gold last traded at $1,977 an ounce. Silver at $23.85 an ounce.

EDITOR'S NOTE: The numbers just keep getting worse. More and more Americans are turning to their credit cards just to pay their bills; and they are doing so at very high borrowing costs and paying with wages that cannot keep up. Nothing the Fed is doing will reverse this trend, so where do we go from here?

Battered By Inflation, 90 Million Americans Struggle Paying Bills As Credit Card Usage Spikes -ZeroHedge

by Tyler Durden

A large swath of American consumers are facing financial hardship as they grapple with elevated living costs, record-high credit card use, and two years of negative real wage growth. This perfect storm could decimate financially fragile households in the next downturn.

As many as 89.1 million American adults (or about 38.5%) were found to experience some form of difficulty in covering expenses between April 26 and May 8, according to Bloomberg, citing new data from the Household Pulse Survey. This is up from 34.4% in 2022 and 26.7% during the same period in 2021.

The rising trend is alarming but not surprising. Consumers have been battered by two years of negative real wage growth.

As wages fail to outpace the cost of living, many consumers have burned through savings and resorted to credit cards. The latest revolving credit data shows consumers appear to be 'strong,' but that's only because they use their plastic cards more than ever to survive. READ MORE

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5.18.23 - Gold more popular than Stocks

Gold last traded at $1,956 an ounce. Silver at $23.50 an ounce.

EDITOR'S NOTE: If you’re looking for a good long term investment, look no further than gold; this according to a recent Gallup poll. After a tumultuous 2022, investors are looking for safety and profit in metals. Precious metals investments can be made through private purchase as well as through a retirement savings account. Contact your Swiss America representative today to learn how.

Americans have more of a hankering for gold than stocks for the first time in a decade -Quartz

By Niharika Sharma

After a tough 2022 for stocks, gold is seen as a wiser long-term investment, a Gallup poll finds

For the first time in a decade, Americans think that gold is a safer bet than stocks for long-term investment, according to the results of a new Gallup poll. In fact, as 2022 proved a brutal year for the stock markets—the worst since the financial crisis in 2008—Americans’ favorable perception of gold nearly doubled.

Gold now runs a clear second place in American perceptions of investment options, behind real estate, the perennial leader since 2013.

The Gallup poll, run in its present version every April since 2011, asked respondents to rank real estate, gold, stocks and funds, savings deposits, and bonds. Gold wasn't a part of this menu of choices until 2011, a few years after the subprime mortgage crisis and the accompanying recession, when it began rising in popularity.

As markets recovered after the crisis, gold dipped back down in the rankings. But its resurgence last year shows that Americans are feeling a distinct lack of confidence in their their traditional investment options—a mood not dissimilar to that prevailing in 2008. READ MORE

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5.17.23 - Close to 190 banks could collapse

Gold last traded at $1,988 an ounce. Silver at $23.75 an ounce.

US banking crisis: Close to 190 banks could collapse, according to study -Yahoo! Finance

Despite the assurances that come with each new banking crisis that *this* one will be the last, a new study gives us 190 more reasons to be concerned. That is the number of banks that could collapse in the next wave of failures. Even if it ends up just being half of this list, the blow to our already fragile economy could be devastating.

by Swapna Venugopal Ramaswamy, USA TODAY

With the failure of three regional banks since March, and another one teetering on the brink, will America soon see a cascade of bank failures?

Bloomberg reported Wednesday that San Francisco-based PacWest Bancorp is mulling a sale.

Last week, First Republic Bank became the third bank to collapse, the second-largest bank failure in U.S. history after Washington Mutual, which collapsed in 2008 amid the financial crisis.

After the demise of Silicon Valley Bank and Signature Bank in March, a study on the fragility of the U.S. banking system found that 186 more banks are at risk of failure even if only half of their uninsured depositors (uninsured depositors stand to lose a part of their deposits if the bank fails, potentially giving them incentives to run) decide to withdraw their funds.

Uninsured deposits are customer deposits greater than the $250,000 FDIC deposit insurance limit. READ MORE

New York, San Francisco Office Buildings Are Absolute Ghost Towns -ZeroHedge

We've been hearing quite a bit recently about the anticipated commercial real estate collapse. If San Francisco and NYC are any indication, it has already begun. With corporate offices vacancies as high as 50% and a workforce that has grown comfortable working from home, a reversal of this downtrend doesn't seem to be in the cards.

by Tyler Durden

It's no secret that commercial real estate is in bad shape across the globe...

Things are so bad, in fact, that 26 Empire State Buildings could fit into New York City's empty office space, as occupancy in the city is hovering around 50% of prepandemic levels, according to the chair of Harvard Economics Department, Edward Glaeser and MIT's Carlo Ratti.

The cause? Thanks to the pandemic, working from home has become the norm in many industries - a phenomenon which has also heavily impacted mass transit systems in America's largest cities.

In downtowns from Chicago to Los Angeles, the physical layout of the 20th-century city is clashing with the new economy. Since the 1920s, single-use zoning has divided our cities into separate neighborhoods for home, work and play. Work-from-home and Netflix have made these distinctions irrelevant, but our partitioned urban fabric has yet to catch up.

To create a city vibrant enough to compete with the convenience of the internet, we need to end the era of single-use zoning and create mixed-use, mixed-income neighborhoods that bring libraries, offices, movie theaters, grocery stores, schools, parks, restaurants and bars closer together. We must reconfigure the city into an experience worth leaving the house for. Streets once filled by commuting crowds can be reinvigorated by those who really want to be there. -NYT READ MORE

Stashing cash: 71% of Americans are setting more money aside amid recession fears, new report finds -CNBC

Holding cash is a strategy we at Swiss America fully support. Although stashing cash subjects one to inflationary pressures, the concept of becoming your own banker has proven invaluable during times of crisis. Cash is good, but adding gold and silver to the mix is even better. Call one of our representatives today to find out how to do so if you haven't already.

by Jessica Dickler

Renewed fears of a possible recession have spurred more households to adjust their spending habits — finally.

Broadly, Americans are cutting back, particularly on discretionary purchases, and saving more, according to recent reports on the state of the consumer by the Bank of America Institute and Deloitte.

Now, 71% of Americans are likely to keep cash on hand, according to a new Country Financial security index.

To save more, about half of all adults are dining out less frequently and 42% have changed the way they shop for food, according to the Country Financial report, which was provided exclusively to CNBC before its general release Wednesday. Other consumers are driving less to save on gas or canceling some streaming services. READ MORE

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5.16.23 - Move over, U.S. Dollar

Gold last traded at $1,988 an ounce. Silver at $23.75 an ounce.

EDITOR'S NOTE: The US dollar is facing increasing pressure from the Yuan wanting to dethrone it. The dollar in its weakened condition may not be able to stop it from happening. This would be another serious blow to our economy as we struggle to find stable ground.

Move over, U.S. dollar. China wants to make the yuan the global currency. - The Washington Post

by Meaghan Tobin, Lyric Li, David Feliba

Newsan, one of Argentina's biggest home appliance retailers, imports most of its products from China. Until now, it was paying for fridges, TVs and parts in U.S. dollars, the currency of international trade.

But last month, as part of a bid to relieve pressure on Argentina's dollar-strapped economy, Newsan started doing something new: settling deals in Chinese yuan.

"The yuan is becoming increasingly relevant as currency for international trade," said Luis Galli, chief executive of Newsan. "But beggars don't get to choose. This deal was born out of necessity."

Argentina's economy is — again — in crisis. A drought has wiped out key agricultural exports, pushing the economy, already grappling with skyrocketing inflation, to the brink of recession.

With Argentina's supply of U.S. dollars dwindling as a result, the government in April announced it would pay for $1 billion worth of imports from China in yuan — and for $790 million worth of monthly imports thereafter.

It also activated a currency swap agreement, making it possible for companies to borrow yuan from China, Argentina's second-largest trading partner.

The deal was welcome news for Beijing, which has long wanted its currency in wider use and to enjoy some of the power and prestige that the United States enjoys thanks to the dollar's global domination.

It wasn't having much luck — until recently. Suddenly more customers are willing to settle their bills in Chinese yuan, thanks variously to domestic economic crises, Western sanctions against Russia, China’s position as a major lender and growing concerns about being beholden to Washington's policies. READ MORE

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5.15.23 - Fewer Than 60% Of Baby Boomers Have Retirement Accounts

Gold last traded at $2,014 an ounce. Silver at $24.07 an ounce.

EDITOR'S NOTE: Nearly half of Americans - aged between 40 and 77 - do not have a retirement savings account. This is a frightening statistic and another reflection of the growing weakness in our economy. Planning today for tomorrow, whether in big or small dollar amounts, is critical. Wealth is either accumulated or inherited, only one of which you can count on. Contact your Swiss America representative today and find out how you can open up a gold retirement account.

Fewer Than 60% Of Baby Boomers Have Retirement Accounts - Zero Hedge

Authored by Katabella Roberts via The Epoch Times

Millions of working-age Americans aged between 56 and 64 are edging closer to retirement without having savings stashed away.

Census data for 2020 shows that less than 60 percent (approximately 58.1 percent) of American "baby boomers"—generally defined as those born between 1946 to 1964—owned a retirement account three years ago, at a time when the COVID-19 pandemic upended jobs and the global economy.

That means over two-fifths of baby boomers nearing retirement had no retirement savings stored in financial institutions.

The U.S. Census Bureau defined retirement accounts as 401(k), 403(b), 503(b), Thrift Savings Plans, Individual Retirement Accounts (IRA), Keogh accounts, and defined-benefit and cash balance plans.

The Census data also revealed that just 56.1 percent of "Generation X" members, or those aged between 40 and 55 had a retirement account in 2020, while roughly half of "millennials" ages 24 to 39 had one.

Meanwhile, just 7.7 percent of Americans who fall under the "Generation Z" category, meaning those aged 15 to 23, owned retirement accounts in 2020. However, given their ages, they also have more time to accumulate additional retirement savings. READ MORE

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5.12.23 - Gold has a long way to run

Gold last traded at $2,010 an ounce. Silver at $23.96 an ounce.

EDITOR'S NOTE: If you're wondering where the price of gold is going, there are several out there who would tell you nowhere but up. As holders of gold, that's music to our ears; but the reasons for its rise might be of consequence to other areas of our economy. Another great example of why diversification in an investment portfolio is critical in today's climate.

De-dollarization means gold is underrated and has a 'long way to run,' says Bridgewater's Co-CIO -Yahoo! Finance

by Filip De Mott

Gold could be at the start of a lasting growth period as global de-dollarization trends continue, Co-CIO of Bridgewater Associates Karen Karniol-Tambour said.

Gold has historically been attractive when interest rates are falling, but she thinks there's now more to the precious metal, setting it up for a bullish outlook.

"Gold is underrated. It's got a long way to run," she said Tuesday at the Sohn Conference, according to Kitco News.

This comes as some countries look to reduce their reliance on the US dollar, which is dominant in international trade and traditionally is seen as a pillar reserve asset for central banks.

But Western sanctions on Russia that froze its foreign currency reserves highlighted the risks in using dollars. And since Russia's invasion of Ukraine, more countries have turned to China's yuan or other non-dollar currencies for trade deals.

Meanwhile, central bank purchases of gold have soared in the past few quarters as they rush to stockpile it in their reserves. READ MORE

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5.11.23 - Is Silver the new Gold?

Gold last traded at $2,014 an ounce. Silver at $24.19 an ounce.

“Weird Gold Trick” Could End Debt Ceiling Showdown -Daily Reckoning

The government may again be using gold to their advantage. The US government has a pretty consistent track record of using the yellow metal to bail themselves out of bad fiscal policy. It just goes to show, in times of financial distress gold is the place to be.

by James Rickards

The phrase “X-Date” may remind readers of the TV drama The X-Files or the superhero X-Men. It actually refers to the date when the U.S. Treasury goes broke.

The problem arises from the fact that issuing U.S. Treasury debt beyond a certain ceiling requires approval from the U.S. Congress. The amount of outstanding debt today is at the current debt ceiling.

The Treasury is allowed to issue new debt to roll over maturing debt as long as the ceiling is not breached. Since the U.S. is running large budget deficits, the Treasury has to increase the total amount of debt outstanding in order to pay the government’s bills for everything from F-35 fighter jets to food stamps.

Treasury has already hit the debt ceiling but has been able to scrape by with some positive cash flow (due to tax payments around April 15) and some other revenue sources including excise taxes and tariffs. READ MORE

Why Silver is the new Gold: Opportunity for Sustainable Upside Momentum -FX Empire

Gold has been in the headlines lately, but silver has its own upside to discuss. Silver prices are ready for a rally at current levels and offer a very attractive price point for all investors. Now is the time to take advantage of the opportunity it presents.

by Vladimir Zernov

Silver remains below its all-time high while gold is trading near its record levels. If the gold/silver ratio drops below 78, it could give silver a sustainable bullish trend and potentially push it towards multi-year highs.

Silver enjoyed strong support in recent months and moved toward the $26.00 level. While gold is close to its all-time high of $2075, which was reached back in 2020, silver stays well below its record level. Silver touched highs at $49.81 in April 2011 and has never moved close to these levels.

This year, silver has a chance to gain sustainable upside momentum as traders focus on the problems of U.S. banks and search for safe-haven assets. Gold is already trading near all-time high levels, which is bullish for silver. Meanwhile, the gold/silver ratio has settled near the strong support in the 78 – 80 range. Many traders use the gold/silver ratio as an additional indicator for their decision-making. READ MORE

Gold closes in on an all-time high thanks to de-dollarization and banking uncertainty -Yahoo! Finance

Gold continues to rally as the unraveling of the US economy continues. If you're looking for a financial safe haven in these times of uncertainty, gold is - and has been - a sound bet. The rally has been fueled by uncertainty, and even more uncertainty is predicted for the foreseeable future.

by George Glover

Gold prices are closing in on an all-time high with ongoing banking turmoil and the de-dollarization movement fueling demand for the precious metal.

Spot prices have jumped 8% since Silicon Valley Bank collapsed on March 10, according to Refinitiv, trading at around $2,028 per ounce at last check.

Investors tend to see the yellow metal as a so-called "safe haven" that they can rely on for steady returns in times of heightened volatility – so it's benefited from investors' fears about the health of US regional banks.

Beverly Hills-based PacWest said it would explore a sale Thursday, the latest setback for regional lenders.

Gold's peak for the year came that day, with its price reached $2,051 per ounce – just 21 cents below the record level of $2,072 per ounce, per Refinitiv. READ MORE

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5.10.23 - "A Lot More Bodies Coming" - Druckenmiller

Gold last traded at $2,036 an ounce. Silver at $25.64 an ounce.

EDITOR'S NOTE: Billionaire Stan Druckenmiller warns that the pundits may have it all very wrong in regard to our economic future. All the experts want to claim this is nothing like the 2008 crash; but none of these same talking heads saw that crash coming either. Read on to see what Druckenmiller sees ahead and what he is planning to do about it.

"A Lot More Bodies Coming" - Druckenmiller Warns Of "Hard Landing", Blasts Fed "Free Money" Making People Do "Really Stupid Things" - Zero Hedge

by Tyler Durden

Stan Druckenmiller thinks the US economy is teetering on the edge of a recession, predicting a "hard landing", and warning that "there's a lot more bodies coming" with regarding regional banks and corporate bankruptcies.

The billionaire founder of Duquesne Family Office said Tuesday during the 2023 Sohn Investment Conference that it’s a really hard time to come up with an accurate economic forecast, slamming "Jerome Powell's Fed" for having its "foot on the gas" even though the risk of inflation was apparent amid the recovery from COVID.

Druckenmiller has been a big critic of what he calls the Fed’s too-easy monetary policy and continued that today. He noted that there have only been a few soft landings since 1950, and the odds of that happening are tough, highlighting Bed Bath & Beyond’s bankruptcy and warning that there could be more to come (specifically mentioning the struggles in the CRE space and that regional banks are a big lender to the space.

"...when you have free money, people do stupid things. When you have free money for 11 years, people do really stupid things. So there's stuff under the hood, it's starting to emerge. Obviously the regional banks recently, we had Bed Bath and Beyond. But I would assume there's a lot more bodies coming." READ MORE

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5.9.23 - The coming threat to commercial real estate, construction and jobs

Gold last traded at $2,036 an ounce. Silver at $25.64 an ounce.

EDITOR'S NOTE: It's very hard to find any good economic news these days. And now a new threat is emerging: the perfect storm of rising interest rates and the ensuing credit crunch, creating a "perfect storm".

Opinion: A ‘perfect storm’ from higher interest rates and a credit crunch threatens commercial real estate, construction and jobs

By John F. Fish

With $1.5 trillion in loans maturing in the next two years, developers and landlords need more time to restructure and repay debt

As the U.S. emerges from the COVID-19 pandemic, much attention has been given to rising inflation and the interest-rate hikes to combat it. But there is another looming threat with equally impactful and widespread implications for consumers and the economy: commercial real estate. About $1.5 trillion worth of commercial real estate loans are due to mature over the next two years, at a steep increase.

The combination of the tightening of lending conditions and loans refinanced at higher, unsustainable rates could potentially stifle construction and development in major cities struggling to bounce back from the pandemic.

To avoid inflicting more far-reaching economic uncertainty, the Federal Reserve and the financial services regulatory agencies should grant more time for borrowers — including corporate real estate developers — to restructure commercial real estate loans.

This strategy has a proven track record of success. During the 2008-09 financial crisis and again in the COVID-19 pandemic, similar programs provided financial institutions flexibility to work constructively with borrowers. In the summer of 2022, the Board of Governors at the Fed proposed a comparable policy. Granting borrowers more time to adjust the economic climate makes more sense than pushing loans that could result in more foreclosures and bankruptcies.

Failure to act will hurt more than just those holding these loans. The perfect storm brewing from higher interest rates, lower real estate values and an illiquid market will burden consumers, businesses, stall affordable housing expansion and further imperil the health of our major metropolitan areas.

Consider that the bulk of commercial real estate loans were financed when base rates were near zero — far below today’s rates closer to 5%. Not only are the rates higher, but the real estate values are much lower, especially in cities afflicted with high vacancy rates from ongoing work-from-home policies. Prior to the pandemic, 95% of U.S. offices were occupied. Today, that number is closer to 47%. The drop wiped out $453 billion of commercial real-estate value, according to the U.S. National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER). READ MORE

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5.8.23 - Central Banks Still Buying Gold

Gold last traded at $2,021 an ounce. Silver at $25.55 an ounce.

EDITOR'S NOTE: Central banks are still buying up gold and don't appear to be slowing down any time soon. The unraveling of the US economy - specifically our banks - is contributing to the continued buying frenzy. Metals have always been looked at as a hedge but they are increasingly becoming a portfolio necessity.

Central Bank Gold Buying Off To A Record-Breaking Start In 2023, Led By Singapore -Zero Hedge

It may not be the off the charts gold buying observed in the second half of 2022, but central bank Central bank gold buying made a blistering start to 2023 when according to the latest report from the World Gold Council, demand for the hard currency by the world's money-printing authorities reached 228 tonnes in Q1, a 176% increase compared to the 82.7 tonnes one year ago. While lower than the figures seen in the previous two quarters this was nonetheless the strongest first quarter on record. According to the WGC, "this is all the more impressive considering it follows the record-breaking pace of demand last year."

The rolling four-quarter total soared to a record 1,224 tonnes in Q1 following massive buying in recent quarters. As with the figures for both Q3 and Q4 2022, data for the current quarter contains a significant estimate for unreported activity. READ MORE

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5.5.23 - The banking crisis is just getting started

Gold last traded at $2,016 an ounce. Silver at $25.66 an ounce.

EDITOR'S NOTE: As suspected, Dimon's assurance that the system was sound was either bravado or delusion. It sure didn't take long for the "system" to prove him wrong. Sadly, it looks like these are just the first failures of many.

Brace yourselves, the banking crisis is just getting started - Yahoo! Finance

By Ben Marlow

Photo by Remy Steinegger

Having ridden to the rescue of California lender First Republic over the weekend, JP Morgan’s superstar boss had a message for financial markets: its shotgun takeover of First Republic heralded the end of the crisis. He should know better than to be drawn into the realms of speculation about things he has no control of but then Wall Street is so deferential to figures like Dimon that they start to believe they can walk on water.

Still, the speed with which Dimon’s words have come back to haunt him comes as a shock. A mere 48 hours later, and it looked as though the game was up for yet another regional American bank – the fourth since the end of March. READ MORE

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5.4.23 - Regional Bank Crisis Spreads To Big Banks

Gold last traded at $2,050 an ounce. Silver at $26.06 an ounce.

EDITOR'S NOTE: The US banking industry is on a rapid, snowballing descent as seizures continue and share prices fall. The negative momentum could ultimately prove to be irreversible.

Regional Bank Crisis Spreads To Big Banks As PacWest, US Bancorp Tumble, Stocks Dump Amid Widespread Liquidations -Zero Hedge

Two days ago, on May 2, in the aftermath of the FRC take-under by JPM which Jamie Dimon praised (of course) as a deal proving that the "system works as it should", and predicted that the bank crisis is now almost over, a forecast which the Fed chair reiterated yesterday (just before all hell broke loose), we warned that the "banking crisis is baaaack" for the simple reason that by bailing out FRC, up to $75 billion in Fed reserves would be drained from the system pushing small banks back to their reserve constraint and forcing another market puke and/or Fed bailout.

And as events less than 24 hours later proved conclusively, we were again right.

Early this morning, after its stock crashed as much as 60% and falling to a record low in the afterhours session following a Bloomberg report that it was seeking to sell itself or raise capital and sparking concerns that it was the next insolvent bank, California's PacWest Bancorp (it's always a California bank for some odd reason), confirmed that it was indeed in talks with several potential investors, and said core deposits have increased since March in a desperate attempt to calm markets after the stock rout made it the new focal point of concern over the health of US regional lenders.

“The bank has not experienced out-of-the-ordinary deposit flows following the sale of First Republic Bank and other news,” PacWest said in a statement after the stock’s post-market plunge. “Our cash and available liquidity remains solid and exceeded our uninsured deposits.”

Sadly for PACW, in a world where a bank bringing attention to its balance sheet only invites bear raids and massive shorting, the bank failed to rebound and this morning it plunged as much as 48%, after being halted twice, and was last trading down 42%. READ MORE

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5.3.23 - Half of America's banks are potentially insolvent

Gold last traded at $2,020 an ounce. Silver at $25.35 an ounce.

5 Oil Producing Nations Ask To Join BRICS Alliance -OilPrice.com

The move to abandon US dollars is picking up participants. After decades of singular dominance in oil commerce, the dollar is heading toward a quick death. The ramifications of this will be beyond devastating to the US economy.

by Zero Hedge

Saudi Arabia, the UAE, Algeria, Egypt, Bahrain, and Iran have formally asked to join the BRICS group of nations as it prepares to hold its annual summit in South Africa.

In total, 19 nations have expressed interest in joining the emerging-markets bloc of Brazil, Russia, India, China, and South Africa, according to Anil Sooklal, South Africa’s ambassador to the group.

“What will be discussed is the expansion of BRICS and the modalities of how this will happen... Thirteen countries have formally asked to join, and another six have asked informally. We are getting applications to join every day,” the South African official told Bloomberg earlier this week.

BRICS will hold its annual summit in Cape Town during the first week of June. The foreign ministers from all five member states have confirmed their attendance.

Earlier this month, Bloomberg revealed that BRICS is expected to soon surpass the US-led G7 states in economic growth expectations. READ MORE

Half of America’s banks are potentially insolvent – this is how a credit crunch begins -Yahoo! Finance

Some of the many benefits of precious metals ownership are being able to literally put your hands on your assets as well as knowing you have something of an exchangeable value. All this discussion of insolvent banks underlines the reason we all should be diversified into metals. Insolvency translates into a potential inability to get your money. Stay one step ahead by purchasing physical metals today.

By Ambrose Evans-Pritchard

The twin crashes in US commercial real estate and the US bond market have collided with $9 trillion uninsured deposits in the American banking system. Such deposits can vanish in an afternoon in the cyber age.

The second and third biggest bank failures in US history have followed in quick succession. The US Treasury and Federal Reserve would like us to believe that they are “idiosyncratic”. That is a dangerous evasion.

Almost half of America’s 4,800 banks are already burning through their capital buffers. They may not have to mark all losses to market under US accounting rules but that does not make them solvent. Somebody will take those losses.

“It’s spooky. Thousands of banks are underwater,” said Professor Amit Seru, a banking expert at Stanford University. “Let’s not pretend that this is just about Silicon Valley Bank and First Republic. A lot of the US banking system is potentially insolvent.”

The full shock of monetary tightening by the Fed has yet to hit. A great edifice of debt faces a refinancing cliff-edge over the next six quarters. Only then will we learn whether the US financial system can safely deflate the excess leverage induced by extreme monetary stimulus during the pandemic. READ MORE

Druckenmiller Warns US Debt Crisis Worse Than He Imagined -Yahoo! Finance

The debt crisis: a term that riles up the pundits but somehow never ends up meaning much. When someone like Stanley Druckenmiller, who has been a debt watcher for decades, says it is as bad as he's ever seen it, we should all pause and listen.

By Sonali Basak

(Bloomberg) -- Stanley Druckenmiller, the hedge fund investor and long-time deficit hawk, said the current impasse over the debt ceiling is dwarfed by the dangers of unchecked future government spending.

“The fiscal recklessness of the last decade has been like watching a horror movie unfold,” Druckenmiller, 69, who now runs his own Duquesne Family Office, said in a speech Monday at the University of Southern California Marshall School of Business.

In a follow-up email, he said he hopes the US government doesn’t go into default, “but honestly, all this focus on the debt ceiling instead of the future fiscal issue is like sitting on the beach at Santa Monica worrying about whether a 30-foot wave will damage the pier when you know there’s a 200-foot tsunami just 10 miles out.”

Druckenmiller’s comments echo those the billionaire investor gave a decade ago during a tour of 14 university campuses, when he encouraged students to pay attention to ballooning federal deficits that he believed could bankrupt future generations. READ MORE

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5.2.23 - First Republic’s failure shows we are fighting an unwinnable war

Gold last traded at $2,016 an ounce. Silver at $25.37 an ounce.

EDITOR'S NOTE: With yet another collapse in the news, are banking regulators fighting an unwinnable war? It does certainly seem like these failures are well orchestrated. Each seems to be tied up rather quickly with a neat little bailout bow. This is the "Secret War" on your cash we have been warning about for several years now. This is why a well diversified portfolio into precious metals isn't just a good idea, it's a must. Call one of our representatives today at 800-289-2646 to learn more.

First Republic’s failure shows we are fighting an unwinnable war - Yahoo! Finance

by Ben Wright

When Silicon Valley Bank was busy imploding earlier this year, and depositors were pulling their money out of shaky lenders to put it in safer-looking banks, the joke was that everyone was going to end up banking with JP Morgan. Now that the US uber-lender has agreed to acquire most of First Republic, another stricken bank, the gag is even less funny.

Make no mistake, this is yet another bailout. First Republic – like SVB and Signature Bank before it – was seized by the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation (FDIC) before the sale was hastily arranged. The regulator has agreed to share the burden of any losses, which are expected to cost the FDIC something in the order of $13bn.

Jamie Dimon, JP Morgan’s chief executive, wanted to make it crystal clear whose idea this all was: "Our government invited us and others to step up, and we did." The bank’s finance chief double underlined the point on a call after the acquisition was announced: "We did not seek out this deal."

How did it come to this? Just under two months ago we passed the 15-year anniversary of the investment bank Bear Stearns being rescued from collapse by JP Morgan amid the global financial crisis. One of the key lessons then was that many banks had become "too big to fail". READ MORE

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5.1.23 - Unrealistic Optimism After Second Largest US Bank Failure

Gold last traded at $1,990 an ounce. Silver at $25.30 an ounce.

EDITOR'S NOTE: On the heels of the second largest US bank failure in history over the weekend, Jamie Dimon, CEO of JPMorgan and savior of First Republic, today claims the, "system is very, very sound." I, quite frankly, have my doubts. And I am not alone in my suspicion. Read on to find out why all this talk of confidence in the system is barely more than bravado.

JPM CEO Says "System Is Very, Very Sound" After Second Largest US Bank Failure In History - ZeroHedge

by Tyler Durden

After another massive bank failure - and taxpayer-funded bailout - JPMorgan CEO Jamie Dimon told listeners on an investor call this morning that "The system is very, very sound."

Doesn't seem like it Jamie, old chap?

But hey, whatever you say now as the CEO of a bank that holds over 10% of America's deposits.

"We need large, successful banks in the largest economy," Dimon continued, proclaiming that "this is nothing like '08 or '09."

Well he is right, in so much as this is far larger... and we really don't know where the CRE holes on bank balance sheets are (even as Charlie Munger warns they are everywhere).

The good news, Dimon declares regarding bank failures, "this is getting near the end of it." Thought how he would know that is hard to comprehend?

Finally, the too-biggest-to-fail bank CEO warned, "we are clearly gong to see some reduction in bank lending," implying JPMorgan will be doing "God's work" for The Fed by contracting credit without the need for rate-hikes.

For now, it's clear what the market thinks of JPM's state-sponsored buyout of FRC assets... READ MORE

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4.27.23 - Signs Of Financial Disaster Ahead

Gold last traded at $1,982 an ounce. Silver at $24.82 an ounce.

EDITOR'S NOTE: As more and more frightening financial data rolls in, the price of gold continues to climb. Gold's function as a financial hedge has a long and successful history; and it is now one of the best performing asset classes as well.

So Many Open Signs Of Financial Disaster Ahead And Gold Working - Zero Hedge

Authored by Matthew Piepenburg via GoldSwitzerland.com

From oil markets to treasury stacking, backdoor QE, investor fantasy and hedge fund prepping, it’s becoming more and more clear that the big boys are bracing for disaster as gold stretches its legs for a rapid run north.

Recently, I dove into the cracks in the petrodollar as yet another symptom of a world turning its back on USTs and USDs.

Gold, of course, has a role in these headlines if one looks deep enough.

So, let’s look deeper.

Diving Deeper into the Oil Story

The headlines of late, for example, are all about “surprise” OPEC production cuts.

Why is this happening and what does it say about gold down the road?

First, let’s face the politics.

As noted many times, it seems US policy, on everything from short-sighted (suicidal?) sanctions to the “green initiative” makes just about zero sense in the real world, which is miles apart from the “keep-me-elected” fantasy-world of DC. READ MORE

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4.26.23 - What Strong Gold Says About The Weak Dollar

Gold last traded at $1,990 an ounce. Silver at $24.84 an ounce.

World shifts away from using the dollar - China Daily

In the dollar wars, China delivers yet another blow. And the world is following suit. Local currencies are being used more and more in global trading, trades once settled exclusively in dollars.

By PRIME SARMIENTO

Yuan used increasingly in preference to US currency for trade settlements

Economies across the world are exploring the use of convenient currencies other than the United States dollar for trading.

Analysts believe that China and other countries are gradually reducing their dependence on the dollar by using local currencies for cross-border trade, helping to create a multipolar international currency system.

At the end of March, the Shanghai Petroleum and Natural Gas Exchange, or SHPGX, reported that China had imported liquefied natural gas from the United Arab Emirates using cross-border yuan settlement.

It was the first time that China — the world's second-biggest importer of LNG — had used its currency for such a purchase, as the global commodities trade has long been based on US dollar-denominated transactions. READ MORE

What Strong Gold Says About The Weak Dollar -Zero Hedge

Gold has seen a 20% increase over the last six months as investors - both big and small - have been looking for alternatives to holdings in US dollars. There are many who believe that the dollar's dominance is too great to lose its premier status; but if this latest trend continues, the changing tide may be too powerful to hold back.

Authored by Ruchir Sharma, op-ed via The Financial Times,

The US has been weaponising its currency - but that comes with a cost...

Today commentators overwhelmingly agree that a weakening US dollar cannot possibly lose its status as the world’s dominant currency because there is “no alternative” on the visible horizon. Perhaps, but don’t tell that to the many countries racing to find an alternative, and such complacency will only accelerate their search.

The prime example right now is gold, up 20 per cent in six months. Surging demand is not led by the usual suspects — investors large and small, seeking a hedge against inflation and low real interest rates. Instead, the heavy buyers are central banks, which are sharply reducing their dollar holdings and seeking a safe alternative. Central banks are buying more tons of gold now than at any time since data begins in 1950 and currently account for a record 33 per cent of monthly global demand for gold.

This buying boom has helped push the price of gold to near-record levels and more than 50 per cent higher than what models based on real interest rates would suggest. Clearly, something new is driving gold prices. READ MORE

An Energy Crisis, Wrapped In A Banking Crisis, Engulfed In Monetary Crisis - Quoth the Raven

The title of this article alone perfectly describes our current situation. So many areas of our global economy are at a tipping point. At this point, it's just a matter of what will be the first to fall.

One of my favorite investors that I love reading and following, Harris Kupperman, has offered up his thoughts on the market for Q1 2023 - with a focus on commodities like oil and his largest positions - which I think are a great read.

Harris is the founder of Praetorian Capital, a hedge fund focused on using macro trends to guide stock selection. Mr. Kupperman is also the chief adventurer at Adventures in Capitalism, a website that details his investments and travels.

Harris is one of my favorite Twitter follows and I find his opinions - especially on macro and commodities - to be extremely resourceful. READ MORE

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4.25.23 - The revolt against the US dollar

Gold last traded at $1,997 an ounce. Silver at $25.01 an ounce.

EDITOR'S NOTE: For months, central banks have been quietly distancing themselves from the dollar as they've been buying up gold, but this quiet diversification has now turned into an all out revolt against the greenback. Combine this with the abandoning of the petrodollar and the dollar may very well be in for the fight of its life.

Central banks are leading a revolt against the US dollar and shifting to gold at a record pace, market expert says - Yahoo! Finance

Assurance in the dollar's dominance ignores signs that countries are serious about seeking alternatives, according to Ruchir Sharma.

This is illustrated when taking account of recent trends in gold: the safe haven commodity has surged 20% in the last half year.

But demand is coming from central banks reducing their dollar holdings, not the "usual suspects" made up of large and small investors, the chair of Rockefeller International wrote in The Financial Times on Sunday.

In fact, central banks account for a record 33% of monthly global demand for gold and are buying more gold than at any time since data began in 1950, he added.

"This buying boom has helped push the price of gold to near-record levels and more than 50% higher than what models based on real interest rates would suggest," said Sharma. "Clearly, something new is driving gold prices." READ MORE

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4.24.23 - Gold On The Cusp Of Another Major Bull Market?

Gold last traded at $1,992 an ounce. Silver at $25.14 an ounce.

EDITOR'S NOTE: Gold and silver have been a pillar of stability in these volatile times. In fact, gold and silver have served in this same capacity for generations. This is why the list of bullish analysts is growing. The time for you to diversify into metals is now ... if you haven't already.

Why Gold May Be On The Cusp Of Another Major Bull Market -The Felder Report

Last week, the Treasury Department revealed that the federal deficit hit $1.1 trillion in the first half of the fiscal year ending in March, $432 billion larger than the same period a year earlier. Moreover, most of this expansion came in the month of March, as spending rose 36% year-over-year (not in small part due to rapidly rising interest costs). Longer-term, there is a clear widening trend that began back in 2015 that appears to now have resumed after some pandemic-inspired gyrations. And, if history is any guide, this deteriorating fiscal trend should represent a structurally bearish influence for the dollar in the months and years to come. READ MORE

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4.21.23 - Could the credit crunch cripple the economy?

Gold last traded at $1,981 an ounce. Silver at $25.04 an ounce.

EDITOR'S NOTE: The credit crunch is here, yet another in a laundry list of threats to our economy. Many are expecting it to take a further toll on our already struggling markets. Read on to see what these nine financial minds are saying ...

The credit crunch is here and it could cripple the economy. Here's what Larry Summers, Nouriel Roubini and 7 other experts have said on the emerging threat. -Yahoo! Finance

by Zinya Salfiti

The worst banking turmoil since the 2008 financial crisis appears to have calmed somewhat but it's spawned a new worry for investors: a credit slump that's threatening to cripple the economy.

Banks are turning increasingly risk-averse and less willing to lend as they face massive deposit outflows and the prospect of increased regulatory scrutiny amid the sectoral jitters - and that's crimping the flow of credit into the economy. Recent data showed the steepest lending drop on record over the last two weeks, which suggests a credit crunch has already started, according to Morgan Stanley.

Many big Wall Street names and other experts are now concerned about the impact of the credit squeeze on the US economy. Former Treasury Secretary Larry Summers, Morgan Stanley's Mike Wilson, "Dr. Doom" economist Nouriel Roubini and billionaire investor Bill Gross are among those who have warned about the emerging threat. READ MORE

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4.20.23 - Warren Buffett dumps several banks

Gold last traded at $2,004 an ounce. Silver at $25.28 an ounce.

EDITOR'S NOTE: The headline says it all. Moves like this by financial experts are the canary in the coal mine. The time to make sure your savings are safe is today.

Warren Buffett dumped several banks after spotting red flags in their financials. Here's what spooked him, and which stocks he sold. - Yahoo! Finance

by Theron Mohamed

Warren Buffett dumped his stakes in several banks because their bosses were taking "dumb" risks and using deceptive accounting to flatter their earnings, and he believed they would ultimately pay for their misdeeds, he revealed in a recent CNBC interview.

The famed investor's revelation that he predicted trouble in the banking sector is notable given its current turmoil. The sudden collapse of Silicon Valley Bank and Signature Bank in March has sparked concerns of an international banking crisis, worries about the safety of deposits, and fears of lenders pulling back and causing a credit crunch that squeezes consumers and businesses and shoves the US economy into a recession.

Here's a closer look at what the Berkshire Hathaway CEO said, and which bank stocks he's sold in recent years. READ MORE

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4.19.23 - Three Reasons Market Could Crash in 2023

Gold last traded at $1,995 an ounce. Silver at $25.29 an ounce.

De-Dollarization Is Happening at a ‘Stunning’ Pace, Jen Says - Yahoo! Finance

If the currency markets are a race, the US dollar is quickly headed for last place. Last year was a serious blow to the greenback's global reserve status and it's only gone down hill from there. Is this the end of the dollar's era?

By Matthew Burgess

(Bloomberg) -- The dollar is losing its reserve status at a faster pace than generally accepted as many analysts have failed to account for last year’s wild exchange rate moves, according to Stephen Jen.

The greenback’s share in global reserves slid last year at 10 times the average speed of the past two decades as a number of countries looked for alternatives after Russia’s invasion of Ukraine triggered sanctions, Jen and his Eurizon SLJ Capital Ltd. colleague Joana Freire wrote in a note. Adjusting for exchange rate movements, the dollar has lost about 11% of its market share since 2016 and double that amount since 2008, they said.

“The dollar suffered a stunning collapse in 2022 in its market share as a reserve currency, presumably due to its muscular use of sanctions,” Jen and Freire wrote. “Exceptional actions taken by the US and its allies against Russia have startled large reserve-holding countries,” most of which are emerging economies from the so-called Global South, they said. READ MORE

Think 2022 Was Bad? 3 Reasons Stock Market Could Crash in 2023 - Lombardi Letter

Will 2023 be the year the market crashes? I'm not sure anyone knows for sure what tomorrow holds, but the three points shared in this article seem like very viable predictions.

By By Moe Zulfiqar, B.Comm.

Over the past six months, stocks have performed extremely well. The S&P 500, which is usually considered a measure of the overall stock market, has increased by about 12% over the past six months. Those are impressive returns, but past performance really doesn’t mean much. Investors have to focus on what’s ahead. Sadly, the stock market’s outlook seems gloomy at best.

This is not the time to be complacent. The fundamentals of the stock market are getting more dire with each passing day. The odds of a broad market sell-off are increasing. The volatility that’s ahead could make what we saw in 2022 seem like a cakewalk. READ MORE

Bank of America Clients Flee US Stocks for Third Straight Week -Yahoo! Finance

As the old saying goes, "where there's smoke, there's fire". If recent activity from BofA clients is any indication of what's happening in the stock market, we may have a blaze on our hands.

By Alexandra Semenova

(Bloomberg) -- Bank of America Corp. clients pulled out of US equities for a third consecutive week, even as the stock market extended this year’s push higher.

Outflows were most prominent among institutional and individual investors, with $800 million exiting from the asset class last week, BofA strategists including Jill Carey Hall wrote Tuesday in a note to clients.

The withdrawals come as investors grow increasingly wary about how much longer momentum can hold up across equities as concerns over an economic slowdown weigh on the outlook for corporate earnings. Despite headwinds including weakening economic indicators and recent stresses in the financial system, the S&P 500 Index has clawed back recent losses and is up about 8% this year. Meanwhile, the tech-heavy Nasdaq 100 has soared 20% on bets the Federal Reserve may be nearing the end-point in its most aggressive hike cycle in decades. READ MORE

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4.18.23 - Is There A Worldwide Run On The Bank Of The United States Of America?

Gold last traded at $2,005 an ounce. Silver at $25.20 an ounce.

EDITOR'S NOTE: We are all sadly familiar with bank runs after witnessing the Silicon Valley Bank collapse; but this same type of self-preserving behavior is being exhibited by foreign entities who want out of our economy. And they are exiting at a very rapid rate, which has far graver implications than a localized banking failure.

Is There A Worldwide Run On The Bank Of The United States Of America? -Zero Hedge

Authored by Douglas MacKinnon

In talking this week with a friend about the United States seemingly imploding from within across multiple sectors, my friend stressed:

“It’s not just from within. There is a run on the United States from certain nations and business interests around the world. Just like there was a run on banks after the collapse of Silicon Valley Bank, many nations are either thinking about — or actually proceeding with — transferring at least a portion of their allegiance, assets and commitments from the ‘Bank of the U.S.’ to the ‘Bank of China’ or elsewhere.”

This was not just some person sitting on a porch casually talking about current events while whittling a stick waiting for his Social Security or pension check to hit the mailbox. This was a former high-level U.S. government official, now a CEO, someone who sits on the boards of directors for multiple companies. He has massive real-world and business experience and believes the United State may be on the verge of collapse.

He is far from the only one to think that. READ MORE

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4.17.23 - What If The Dollar Falls?

Gold last traded at $1,994 an ounce. Silver at $25.02 an ounce.

EDITOR'S NOTE: The possibility of the dollar crashing has been discussed for decades; but what does it really look like if it finally does? What might be the consequences for you and your family? Read on to find out.

What If The Dollar Falls? -Mises.org

by Peter St. Onge

The past few weeks, major countries have been moving away from the US dollar, raising doubts about the dollar’s long-dominant role in the world. Eight weeks ago, it was just pariah nations like Iran or Russia trying to de-dollarize. Now it’s Brazil, France, even Saudi Arabia—the lynchpin of the decades-long “petrodollar” arrangement.

If the dollar does lose its position as the global reserve currency, it will be catastrophic for the American economy. Catastrophic for the American people on whose backs 80 years of reserve status were built. And it will subject billions of foreigners, for whom the dollar has meant decades of being bullied, to history’s greatest bait and switch.

Dollar at Risk

In late March, Saudi Arabia announced it will price oil in Chinese yuan. Even CNN was worried, in a rare display of situational awareness, while Fox fretted about “Weimar”—hyperinflation.

The dollar has been the undisputed global reserve currency since the 1940s. Reserve currency status looks great on paper: You get to print stacks of green paper and foreigners give you cool stuff for it, like toasters, luxury cars, and copper mines. The problem is who profits—who gets paid when foreigners crave the green paper? READ MORE

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4.14.23 - The Real Reason Gold Hasn’t Exploded

Gold last traded at $2,004 an ounce. Silver at $25.39 an ounce.

EDITOR'S NOTE: Gold has enjoyed some healthy increases over the last few years. Much of it due to the health, or lack thereof, of our economy. But will those gains continue? According to James Rickards, the best is yet to come; and he has some compelling reasons why.

Rickards: The Real Reason Gold Hasn't Exploded

As weak growth turns into a global recession, a new financial panic will be on the horizon. At that point, the dollar itself may cease to be a safe haven, especially given the aggressive use of sanctions by the U.S. and the desire of major economies such as China, Russia, Turkey, and India to avoid the U.S. dollar system if possible.

When this panic hits and the dollar is deemed no longer reliable, the world will turn to gold.

Frustration with the sideways movement of gold prices is understandable. But behind the curtain, a new liquidity crisis is brewing.

Investors should consider today’s prices a gift and perhaps a last chance to acquire gold at these prices before the real safe haven race begins.

Even above $2,000, gold is so cheap right now, it’s practically a steal. READ MORE

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4.13.23 - Funny Money That Will Destroy Personal Liberty

Gold last traded at $2,040 an ounce. Silver at $25.83 an ounce.

EDITOR'S NOTE: It sure seems digital currencies are here to stay. The Federal government hopes they will be the new norm and they intend to make it so. But is this good for us? This author believes it will likely only further strip us of our personal wealth and freedom. You be the judge.

Central Bank Digital Currencies: Funny Money That Will Destroy What's Left Of Private Property, Free Markets, & Personal Liberty -Zero Hedge

posted by Tyler Durden

Authored by J.B.Shurk via The Gatestone Institute

During the Cold War, the East-West divide was commonly portrayed as pitting communism against capitalism. The Soviet Union, its satellites, and allies operated command economies in which centralized authorities directed the allocation of resources, agricultural production, and industrial manufacturing of the State. The United States and the Western Bloc championed liberal democratic norms and free markets. That division, of course, was always too simplistic. Not only did the US support third-world dictatorships when doing so would produce strategic advantages against the USSR, but also the demarcation between free and controlled markets was never so plainly cut-and-dried.

When young students learn the basics of capitalism, they are taught about markets in which people may freely bargain for the exchange of goods and services according to their personal needs and interests. They are taught that privately-owned property is the hallmark of capitalism and the key distinction separating that system from various socialist and communist economic systems in which property is variously shared among the people or owned exclusively by the State.

When young students mature, however, they realize that throughout the West, private ownership and free markets are neither quite so private nor free. Property may best be understood as a bundle of sticks tied up together with a bow. In an economic system in which what you own is yours and no-one else's, all those sticks stay bundled together tightly. However, when others have an independent claim on what you "own," then one by one, those sticks come undone. READ MORE

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4.12.23 - Buffett Says More Bank Failures

Gold last traded at $2,014 an ounce. Silver at $25.48 an ounce.

Is US Petrodollar Dominance Coming to an End? -Greek Reporter

If the US dollar has feelings, it's likely feeling pretty ganged up on about now; and rightfully so. As the murmurs of death to the petrodollar continue, the substance behind that sentiment grows larger. More and more countries are abandoning its use as they look for - what they believe to be - better alternatives.

By Alexander Gale

A recent succession of oil deals has raised concerns in Washington that the supremacy of the dollar in oil transactions is threatened. Recent agreements made by countries like Saudi Arabia and China relating to the trade of crude and petroleum products could pose significant geopolitical consequences.

The petrodollar refers to the US dollar’s dominant role as the global reserve currency in the international oil trade. Oil-exporting countries receive payment for their oil exports in US dollars, which has strengthened the currency’s value and its demand worldwide. READ MORE

Gold Tailwinds Rising As It Enters Real-Yield Sweet Spot -ZeroHedge

Gold continues to make headlines. The metal has always been promoted as a good means of diversification in any portfolio, but it is quickly moving into the realm of vital necessity.

Posted by Tyler Durden

By Simon White, Bloomberg Markets Live reporter and strategist

Real yields should provide an even greater tailwind for gold through the rest of 2023, supported by a weaker dollar and by buying from reserve managers.

Gold is flirting with all-time highs versus the dollar and several other currencies, while it is at its highs versus several more currencies, such as the Japanese yen, the Australian Dollar and the Indian rupee.Gold is often simplistically taken as an inflation hedge. However, the correlation between gold returns and CPI is very close to zero over the long term. Instead, the interplay between inflation and interest rates — i.e. real rates — is more meaningful for gold. READ MORE

Buffett Says More Bank Failures Are Likely But Depositors Are Safe -Yahoo!Finance

Warren Buffett says more bank failures are on the horizon. He does however offer the reassurance that depositors are going to be safe. As much as I want to believe this is good news, I'm not sure - when it comes to my finances - that this makes me feel any safer.

By Max Reyes

(Bloomberg) -- Warren Buffett said more US banks are likely to fail, but depositors should be confident they won’t lose any of their funds.

“We are not through with bank failures,” the Berkshire Hathaway Inc. chairman and chief executive officer said in an interview on CNBC Wednesday. “Dumb decisions” by bank managers shouldn’t be “panicking the whole citizenry of the United States about something they don’t need to be panicked about.”

Buffett said he’s willing to wager that no depositor will lose any money in the next year. Still, the billionaire investor warned that troubled bank stocks aren’t value investments because shareholders are likely to be wiped out even if the government moves to protect depositors. READ MORE

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4.11.23 - Goodbye, King Dollar

Gold last traded at $2,003 an ounce. Silver at $25.05 an ounce.

EDITOR'S NOTE: The chorus of the doomed dollar is growing. Mr. Rickards asserts it's happening even quicker than many thought it would. The recent changes in the oil market back up these claims.

Goodbye, King Dollar -Daily Reckoning

by James Rickards

I’ve written for years about different nations’ persistent efforts to dethrone the U.S. dollar as the leading global reserve currency and the main medium of exchange.

At the same time, I’ve said that such processes don’t happen overnight; instead, they happen slowly and incrementally over decades.

While that’s true, the process is accelerating in ways no one could have anticipated just over a year ago.

The extreme economic sanctions against Russia, including its ejection from the SWIFT global messaging system, have revealed to other nations that the U.S. can do something similar to them if the U.S. disapproves of their conduct.

None of the sanctions would be effective or even possible without the use of the dollar and the dollar payments system.

So, after 79 years under the Bretton Woods arrangements, 52 years since Nixon closed the gold window, and 49 years since the petrodollar agreement with Saudi Arabia, the reign of King Dollar as the world’s leading payment currency is rapidly coming to an end. READ MORE

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4.10.23 - Dollar Dumped

Gold last traded at $1,991 an ounce. Silver at $24.88 an ounce.

EDITOR'S NOTE: Last month, the first ever oil transaction between Beijing and Abu Dhabi was settled in yuan rather than dollars. This is a severe blow to the once almighty buck. Just another example of the dollar losing ground in the global marketplace. The loss of demand created in these transactions will weaken a currency already struggling to find stability.

Dollar Dumped: How the first China-UAE gas deal in yuan is a big blow to US - First Post

China struck a blow against the US dollar last month.

Beijing and Abu Dhabi in March settled a gas deal in yuan for the first time.

What happened?

In March, China’s national oil company CNOOC and France’s TotalEnergies settled an LNG trade in yuan for the first time.

The exchange was done through the Shanghai Petroleum and Natural Gas Exchange (SHPGX), as per Global Times.

While TotalEnergies confirmed to Reuters that the transaction involved LNG imported from the UAE, it did not comment further.

What does it mean?

A prominent economist, speaking to the website The Cradle anonymously, said, “The French either resorted to the yuan due to the acute shortage of Russian gas supplies to the European continent, or they have reserves in the Chinese currency that they want to use.”

The economist added that the move comes as countries like UAE sense a “global imbalance of power” and look to expand relationships. READ MORE

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4.6.23 - The Banks With the Most Uninsured Deposits

Gold last traded at $2,007 an ounce. Silver at $24.97 an ounce.

EDITOR'S NOTE: In the wake of SVB and other recent bank failures, more information is being revealed on the financial standing of the nation's banks. This article takes a look at exactly where several banks stand; in terms of their deposits being uninsured.

Ranked: The U.S. Banks With the Most Uninsured Deposits -Visual Capitalist

by Dorothy Neufeld | Graphics/Design: Sabrina Lam

The U.S. Top Banks by Uninsured Deposits

Click to Expand

This dollar value is roughly three times that of Apple’s market capitalization, or about equal to 30% of U.S. GDP. Uninsured deposits are ones that exceed the $250,000 limit insured by the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation (FDIC), which was actually increased from $100,000 after the Global Financial Crisis. They account for roughly 40% of all bank deposits.

In the wake of the Silicon Valley Bank (SVB) fallout, we look at the 30 U.S. banks with the highest percentage of uninsured deposits, using data from S&P Global.

Which Banks Have the Most Uninsured Deposits?

Over the last month, SVB and Signature Bank went under at lightning speed.

Below, we show how their level of uninsured deposits compare to other banks. The dataset includes U.S. banks with at least $50 billion in assets at the end of 2022. READ MORE

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4.5.23 - Seven Signs the Dollar is in Trouble

Gold last traded at $2,020 an ounce. Silver at $24.92 an ounce.

Gold Extends Surge Past $2,000 With Record High Now in Sight -Yahoo!Finance

Gold continues to rally and now has a new all time high in sight. This is happening under the heavy pressure of what most feel are problems with no easy solution. The time to personally diversify your portfolio is now for, first, safety and what may also be great upside potential.

by Yvonne Yue Li

(Bloomberg) -- Gold edged slightly higher, hovering above $2,000 an ounce with traders assessing the Federal Reserve’s interest-rate path following weaker-than-expected economic data from the US.

The US service sector expanded in March at a much slower pace than projected on considerably softer growth in new orders and business activity. Companies added fewer jobs than forecast while wage growth slowed, underscoring labor demand that’s showing some signs of cooling. The dollar and Treasuries advanced in response as recession concerns resurfaced. That weighed on bullion as it’s priced in the greenback.

Still, the precious metal remains above the key level and is eying an all-time high of $2,075.47 set in August 2020, suggesting continued demand from investors seeking safety on the back of elevated inflation, a weakening labor market, tight liquidity and brittle credit.

“We have always viewed gold as a hedge in a portfolio context, and its safe-haven qualities have shined through again during the latest market turbulence,” UBS Group AG strategists, including Giovanni Staunovo, said in a note. The analysts see bullion eventually breaking its previous record to test $2,200 an ounce by early 2024. READ MORE

The Dollar Is In Trouble! Here Are 7 Signs That Global De-Dollarization Has Just Shifted Into Overdrive -The Economic Collapse Blog

The dollar continues to feel the strain of the global economies distancing themselves from it; causing more negative pressure on its strength. The "overdrive" this article describes could unfortunately prove to be a serious nail in the coffin.

For decades, the U.S. dollar was the undisputed king of global currencies, but now dramatic changes are happening. China, Russia, India, Brazil, Saudi Arabia and other nations are making really big moves which will enable them to become much less dependent on the U.S. dollar in the years ahead. This is really bad news for us, because having the primary reserve currency of the world has enabled us to enjoy a massively inflated standard of living. Once we lose that status, our lifestyles will be much different than they are today. Unfortunately, most Americans don’t understand any of this. Even though our leaders have treated the stability of our currency with utter contempt in recent years, most Americans just assume that the dollar will always reign supreme. Meanwhile, much of the planet is preparing for a future in which the U.S. dollar will be far less important than it is right now. The following are 7 signs that global de-dollarization has just shifted into overdrive…READ MORE

Why The Panic Is Just Beginning -Daily Reckoning

As the negative news continues to pour in, it was only a matter of time before the "P" word was brought into play. Panic is never a word anyone wants to hear, but it seems somewhat unavoidable given the circumstances. Rickards weighs in.

by James Rickards

Let’s step back from today’s banking financial crisis and look at the bigger picture. That will help us to understand the system dynamics, and estimate how long the crisis might last, and how destructive it might be.

As a preliminary matter, let’s distinguish between a recession (even a bad one) and a financial crisis. They’re different.

A recession is a part of the business cycle. It involves some combination of tighter monetary conditions, higher unemployment, business failures, inventory dumping, declines in industrial output and declining GDP.

In recent decades, we’ve had recessions in 1973, 1980, 1981, 1990, 2000, 2007 and 2020. That’s a tempo of one recession about every seven years, although the recessions of 1980 and 1981 show that back-to-back recessions are possible. READ MORE

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4.4.23 - Banking Crisis "Is Not Over Yet"

Gold last traded at $2,020 an ounce. Silver at $25.00 an ounce.

EDITOR'S NOTE: Jamie Dimon is but one of many money minds suggesting more banking troubles lie ahead. Are failing banks the new norm? We expect this type of uncertainty in financial markets, but banks should be a place where we can safely park our money.

Current Banking Crisis "Is Not Over Yet" - Jamie Dimon Warns Of "Repercussions For Years To Come" -ZeroHedge

by Tyler Durden

Having correctly forecasted the "unprecedented" risks from the combination of inflation, war, and COVID in last year's letter, JPMorgan CEO Jamie Dimon offers only a very dim silver lining for the way forward (current consumer strength and AI opportunities) while warning that the banking crisis is "not over yet", fearing an "overreaction" by regulators,

“As I write this letter, the current crisis is not yet over, and even when it is behind us, there will be repercussions from it for years to come. But importantly, recent events are nothing like what occurred during the 2008 global financial crisis."

Dimon is quick to point the finger of blame at the regulators...

"Ironically, banks were incented to own very safe government securities because they were considered highly liquid by regulators and carried very low capital requirements,” Dimon said.

“Even worse,” he added, the Federal Reserve didn’t stress-test banks on what would happen as rates jumped.

Though he admits management are not without blame.... READ MORE

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4.3.23 - Gold is having a moment at dollar’s expense

Gold last traded at $1,985 an ounce. Silver at $23.99 an ounce.

EDITOR'S NOTE: While gold is indeed experiencing success at the expense of the dollar, some might argue the current plight of the dollar was long overdue. The fundamentals supporting it have been weak at best. Mounting debts and deficits, blown government budgets, interest rate/inflation manipulation ... the list goes on. What matters most is that gold is demonstrating the reason it's a must in every well-diversified portfolio.

Gold is having a global centre-stage moment at dollar’s expense - Gulf News

by Ahmed Bin Sulayem

Dollar’s getting stiff competition, and gold’s gains add to that pressure

For anyone born, or even resident in the UAE, 1971 has a special meaning. Commemorated as the foundation of the United Arab Emirates’, under an initiative led by the late Sheikh Zayed bin Sultan Al Nahyan, 1971 was also a pivotal year for global culture, technology, and economics.

John Lennon released ‘Imagine’, Switzerland gave women voting rights in state elections, Intel released the world’s first microprocessor, Starbucks opened its first coffee shop and a new stock market index called the Nasdaq Composite made its debut.

1971 was also the year in which US President Richard Nixon initiated the changes that began to bring to an end the Bretton Woods System - a mechanism designed to prevent competitive devaluations and promote international economic growth by pegging the US dollar to the value of gold. In doing so, the Nixon administration intended on implementing price controls that would address the ‘international dilemma of a looming gold run and the domestic problem of inflation’.

In the short term, it worked.

With the gold window closed, foreign governments were no longer able to exchange their dollars for gold, while a 90-day freeze on wages and prices brought down inflation without increasing unemployment or slowing the economy. READ MORE

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3.31.23 - Bank of Japan: Is it next?

Gold last traded at $1,980 an ounce. Silver at $23.90 an ounce.

EDITOR'S NOTE: The banking crisis is set to travel abroad, this according to famed author Robert Kiyosaki. One of the main reasons he feels is the dreaded derivatives market and the positions purchased by the Bank of Japan that are now creating tremendous negative strains on the institution.

Financial world legend sounds alarm over 'biggest bank that's going down' -Yahoo!Finance

by Madeline Coggins

In the aftermath of the Silicon Valley Bank collapse, finance expert Robert Kiyosaki cautioned the central bank of a global powerhouse may be the next to belly up.

"The biggest bank that's going to go down is Bank of Japan," Kiyosaki explained. "Because the Bank of Japan carried the interest rates at, what, zero or whatever they did, [and] financed the derivatives markets. And the derivatives market, as Warren Buffett said about derivatives, they're weapons of mass financial destruction and the derivatives market in the world today, financed by the Bank of Japan, is a quadrillion [dollars]."

The "Rich Dad, Poor Dad" author's comments come amid what some have optimistically labeled a market rally after stocks recorded another strong day and markets looked positive in March.

Kiyosaki, however, challenged the idea of a comeback, noting issues with the derivative markets. He also warned the Bank of Japan's heavy connection to derivative markets put it in a more vulnerable position and threaten greater effects on the global economy. READ MORE

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3.30.23 - Solved or Just on Hiatus?

Gold last traded at $1,980 an ounce. Silver at $23.90 an ounce.

EDITOR'S NOTE: Is the banking crisis over? Given the tangled web of our economy, how could it be? Many experts are suggesting this is a crisis still actively in play.

Bank Failures: Solved or Just on Hiatus? - Econ-Intel

The bank failures of Silicon Valley Bank and Signature Bank were significant economic events. These failed banks were taken over by the FDIC on March 10th and 12th. Regulators worked to calm the market on March 12th by issuing a statement that the banking system “remains resilient and on a solid foundation” .

To really understand what is happening, let’s examine the banking data directly. Recently released figures now allow for a look at how banks are actually handling the situation. This makes it possible to assess the level of stress remaining in the banking sector.

Direct borrowing from the Fed suggests the risk of bank failures has not been resolved

Leading up to and through the bank failures, one would expect banks to borrow more money. However, once assurances were made, if the crisis had passed, there would be no need for banks to borrow yet more money.

Borrowings not only increased, but increased more than the week of the failures. Banks pay interest on borrowed funds and would not borrow money without cause. It makes sense for a bank to borrow, if it can invest the money at a rate higher than the cost of borrowing. This is unlikely to be the case in the current interest rate environment. Due to the Fed’s rate increases, the cost to borrow exceeds the rate of return on safe investments.

The other reason that a bank would borrow is if it had to raise cash to meet depositor demand. This is more likely what is happening. READ MORE

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3.29.23 - Will Deutsche Bank be the Next to Fall?

Gold last traded at $1,964 an ounce. Silver at $23.32 an ounce.

This banking crisis isn’t 2008. That doesn’t make it a good thing: Morning Brief -Yahoo!Finance

We've been hearing several comparisons between our current banking crisis and the banking crisis of 2008. Which is worse? A banking crisis of any kind, whether its the worst of the worst or just plain bad, will leave many people with catastrophic losses.

by Myles Udland - Head of News

A daily refrain from investors and financial commentators has been to remind viewers, listeners, readers, and anyone else within earshot that this banking crisis is not 2008.

"Similarities with the lead-up to the global financial crisis are becoming more apparent each week, but we believe key differences make a reprise unlikely," wrote Tamara Basic Vasiljev, senior economist at Oxford Economics, in a note to clients on Tuesday.

"More banking sector upheaval and consolidation is possible, but we think broader economic damage is likely to be contained," Vasiljev added.

And indeed, current angst over FDIC insurance limits, business model risks among regional banks, and another iteration of fears about the commercial real estate market all remain a safe distance from the existential questions the 2008 crisis surfaced at its nadir. READ MORE

Will Deutsche Bank be the Next to Fall? Worried Investors Are Already Turning to Gold -Yahoo!Finance

Another bank is making the wrong kind of headlines. Deutsche Bank - of the most storied banks in the world - is on very shaky ground. Another reason to buy gold for smart investors.

by Henry Stater

After Silicon Valley Bank became the second-largest bank of all time to fail, investors and analysts across the world have been sounding alarm bells. Some fear that the entire banking system is still at risk, but many think that the Treasury Department’s decision to bail out depositors was enough to solve the problem.

The crisis raised concerns about the stability of all major banks, but Deutsche Bank, one of the world's largest and most scrutinized financial institutions, is worrying investors more than others. Deutsche Bank was already not in the best shape when the recent banking crisis started.

The German banking giant has faced numerous challenges in recent years, with its stock price dropping about 30% in less than two months. Despite a small recent rebound, investors remain skeptical about the bank's future prospects. Moreover, Deutsche Bank's interconnectedness with other financial institutions heightens the potential for a domino effect should it run into major liquidity issues. READ MORE

A famous market watcher who called the subprime mortgage crisis is warning that stocks are about to crash: ‘It’s the highest probability since COVID’ -Yahoo!Finance

As we draw nearer to May 11th - when the Biden Administration will let the emergency provisions related to COVID cases expire - it seems COVID is still finding ways to make headlines. This time a market watcher is claiming our markets are heading toward a severe market correction. This is one of several famed market watchers who have come out recently with very concerning predictions related to our financial futures.

by Will Daniel

In 2005, years before the subprime mortgage crisis kicked off the Great Recession and led millions of Americans to lose their homes, Larry McDonald was a vice president at the infamous now-defunct global financial services firm Lehman Brothers. As a young trader he, along with many of his peers, warned that something was wrong in the real estate market that year. It “was living on borrowed time,” he would explain years later in a 2009 New York Times article, and Lehman Brothers “was headed directly for the biggest subprime iceberg ever seen.”

But McDonald’s bosses ignored his warnings, and the 158-year-old institution that was Lehman eventually went under in 2008 after the housing bubble cracked. The S&P 500 would go on to lose roughly 50% of its value in the 17-month bear market that ended in March 2009.

Now, McDonald, the editor and founder of the widely read investing newsletter The Bear Traps Report, is warning that another stock market crash is on the way. He says the “Lehman systemic risk indicators” that he developed after the subprime mortgage crisis—which include things like the corporate default rate, stock market short-interest ratios, and investor sentiment surveys—are all flashing warning signs. READ MORE

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3.28.23 - $4.7 Trillion Increase in Taxes

Gold last traded at $1,974 an ounce. Silver at $23.33 an ounce.

EDITOR'S NOTE: President Biden is proposing a $4.7 trillion tax increase targeted at corporations and the wealthy. That's if you believe that increased taxes won't eventually filter down to all of us. This is just another misguided attempt by our government to fix the things they messed up in the first place.

Biden's New Budget Proposes a $4.7 Trillion Increase in Taxes -Yahoo!Finance

by Caleb Naysmith

President Biden's Fiscal Year 2024 Budget has proposed a series of major tax increases, totaling nearly $4.7 trillion, aimed at businesses and high-income individuals. These proposals include higher marginal tax rates on corporate, individual, and capital gains income; a new minimum tax on high-net-worth individuals; and increases to Medicare taxes. Several tax credits would also be expanded or created, offsetting the gross taxes by about $900 billion and resulting in a net tax increase of $3.8 trillion. After factoring in $1 trillion of additional new spending, the FY2024 Budget would reduce the deficit by $2.8 trillion over the next decade.

However, the Biden budget does not include a concrete proposal for extending the individual income tax cuts from the 2017 Tax Cuts and Jobs Act (TCJA) that will expire after 2025, nor the temporary expansion of the Child Tax Credit (CTC). These extensions would likely offset the projected deficit reductions.

The recent help to small businesses with PPP loans and expanding of the Jumpstart Our Business Startups (JOBS) Act have helped small businesses considerably in recent years. But this proposed tax plan would be a considerable hit to small and large businesses in the U.S. The JOBS Act allows everyday investors to invest in startups and small businesses, which has resulted in billions raised for American small businesses on platforms like StartEngine and Wefunder. This includes StartEngine itself, which has raised over $70 million from everyday investors and $12.5 million in its current funding round, which anyone can invest in. READ MORE

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3.27.23 - Is Commercial Real Estate Next?

Gold last traded at $1,957 an ounce. Silver at $23.10 an ounce.

EDITOR'S NOTE: According to BofA, commercial real estate could be the next victim of this struggling economy. It should come as no surprise; our entire financial system is all part of the same web. When these major sectors of the market are hit, the bigger concern for us is the ripple effect it will have on our investments and savings.

Commercial real estate is the next shoe to drop for regional banks and the stock market -Business Insider

by Matthew Fox

The next domino to fall in the ongoing banking crisis could be commercial real estate loans, according to a Friday note from Bank of America.

A potential credit crunch in the sector, sparked by a wave of upcoming refinancings of commercial real estate loans at much higher interest rates than in the past, could send stocks spiraling and the economy into a recession.

"Commercial real estate [is] widely seen as next shoe to drop as lending standards for CRE loans to tighten further," Bank of America's Michael Hartnett said.

What's not helping is the fact that occupancy rates in offices across the country are still far from their pre-pandemic levels. According to Hartnett, office occupancy rates are still less than 50% as work-from-home trends persists.

At the same time, growth in national rent levels peaked over a year ago and has been steadily falling according to data from Zillow, which means of the office buildings that are collecting rent, it's likely less than what it was in the past. READ MORE

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3.24.23 - Banking 'turmoil' can't be contained

Gold last traded at $1,978 an ounce. Silver at $23.12 an ounce.

EDITOR'S NOTE: The Fed stepping in to bail out failing banks may have stopped a brush fire, but many still believe a forest fire is the on the way. The banks that have already stumbled were just the tip of the iceberg.

Moody's sees risk that U.S. banking 'turmoil' can't be contained- MarketWatch

Still, the agency's baseline view is that U.S. officials will "broadly succeed".

Despite quick action by regulators and policy makers, there's a rising risk that banking-system stress will spill over into other sectors and the U.S. economy, "unleashing greater financial and economic damage than we anticipated," said Moody's Investors Service, one of the Big Three credit-ratings firms.Simply put, the risk is that officials "will be unable to curtail the current turmoil without longer-lasting and potentially severe repercussions within and beyond the banking sector," Atsi Sheth, Moody's managing director of credit strategy, and others wrote in a note distributed on Thursday. Still, the agency's baseline view is that U.S. officials will "broadly succeed." Moody's warning came as Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen indicated that the U.S. could take additional actions if needed to stabilize the banking system, and after Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell assured Americans on Wednesday that the central bank would use its tools to protect depositors. Read: Regional banks get the attention, but worries are more widespread, says ex-FDIC chief Bair and Debate over expanding deposit insurance weighs on bank stocks. Here's what to know. READ MORE

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3.23.23- Dollar Struggles, Gold Shines

Gold last traded at $1,999 an ounce. Silver at $23.19 an ounce.

EDITOR'S NOTE: Gold is perfectly demonstrating its value right now and why it should have a place in every investment portfolio. Its recent price movement to the upside is a typical reaction to times of uncertainty and, with all the sensitivity in our markets right now, being without it could cost you.

Gold shines as bets on Fed pause gain momentum - Reuters

By Seher Dareen

(Reuters) - Gold prices extended gains to a second straight session on Thursday, boosted by a slide in the U.S. dollar and Treasury yields after the Federal Reserve signalled an end to its monetary tightening cycle might be on the cards.

Spot gold rose 0.7% to $1,982.89 per ounce by 10:25 a.m. ET (1425 GMT) while U.S. gold futures gained 1.7% to $1,981.70.

The Fed raised rates by a quarter of a percentage point on Wednesday but highlighted that it was on the verge of pausing.

“If they truly do pause that clearly has been a green light for the gold market, being a quintessential hedge against inflation. It’s likely that inflation would remain elevated if they’re unable to raise rates any further,” said David Meger, director of metals trading at High Ridge Futures.

Gold on Monday hit a one-year high, breaching the key $2,000 level on safe-haven demand, though later ceded some ground as banking sector jitters subsided following the rescue of Credit Suisse. But the outlook remains positive if the Fed pauses or the banking crisis carries on, analysts say. READ MORE

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3.22.23 - Fed could put US economy in 'very dire situation'

Gold last traded at $1,967 an ounce. Silver at $22.93 an ounce.

Gold prices could notch an all-time high soon — and stay there -CNBC

As the markets seek stable ground in these uncertain times, many analysts suggest all roads will lead to aggressive increases in gold prices. We've already seen a jump recently but according to CNBC, that's just the beginning.

by Lee Ying Shan

Gold prices have more room to run as global banks struggle and the U.S. Federal Reserve renders another interest rate decision, potentially breaking all-time highs — and staying there.

“A sooner Fed pivot on rate hikes will likely cause another gold price surge due to a potential further decline in the U.S. dollar and bond yields,” said Tina Teng from financial services company CMC Markets. She expects gold will trade between $2,500 to $2,600 an ounce.

Investors have been flocking to gold and Treasurys as bank stocks have been whacked by the shuttering of Silicon Valley Bank and Credit Suisse’s implosion.

Gold is trading at $1,940.68 per ounce. On Monday, it breached $2,000 to strike its highest since March 2022. Gold has risen around 10% since early March when SVB was hit by a bank run. READ MORE

SVB’s Loans to Insiders Tripled to $219 Million Before It Failed -Yahoo!Finance

It's not much of a surprise to hear there may have been some insider mischief taking place in the recent failure of Simi Valley Bank. This has unfortunately become far too common in these situations. $100s of millions' worth of loans to insiders, months prior to the depositors learning about the financial shortfalls.

by Silla Brush, Noah Buhayar and Allyson Versprille

(Bloomberg) -- As Silicon Valley Bank deteriorated late last year and regulators began internally flagging flaws in its risk management, the lender opened up the credit spigot to one group: insiders.

Loans to officers, directors and principal shareholders, and their related interests, more than tripled from the third quarter last year to $219 million in the final three months of 2022, according to government data.

That’s a record dollar amount of loans issued to insiders, going back at least two decades.

The surge in loans to high-up figures may draw scrutiny as the Federal Reserve and Congress investigate the breakdown of Silicon Valley Bank, the biggest US bank collapse in more than a decade. The firm — one of three US lenders to fall this month — collapsed after investors and depositors tried to pull $42 billion in a single day and it failed to raise capital to shore up its finances.

The government reports don’t disclose loan recipients or their purpose, and there have been no allegations of wrongdoing connected to the insider loans. READ MORE

Fed could put US economy in 'very dire situation' with rate hike decision, expert warns -Yahoo!Finance

Rising interest rates- a phrase we are all tired of hearing. Some suggest rates need to go down to right the markets, while others believe we need another hike. Ultimately there are compelling reasons on both sides of the discussion, which I believe reflects the precarious condition of our current situation.

by Kristen Altus

While some of America’s top banking CEOs discuss a new rescue plan and the Federal Reserve kicks off its two-day meeting, one market expert has warned of a "very dire situation" dependent on fiscal policy.

"If the Fed can't keep rates high, if they can't keep raising as they need be, and we have persistently high inflation, we are in a very, very, very, very dire situation," Michael Lee Strategy founder Mike Lee said on "Mornings with Maria" Tuesday.

"So I think the Fed goes 25 basis points. I think how the market reacts depends 100% on what Powell says and reacts to the questions and how the market absorbs that," he continued. "But what I see is not so much as a contagion from banks or some sort of massive solvency crisis, it's what do we do if the Fed can't raise any more, can't keep tightening? It has to ease, so there's no systemic shocks from the banking system." READ MORE

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3.21.23 - How the Fed circumvented the debt ceiling

Gold last traded at $1,940 an ounce. Silver at $22.40 an ounce.

EDITOR'S NOTE: The government is taking on billions more in debt bailing out failing banks. The incestuous relationship of the government and our banking system is nothing short of frightening. Banks are supposed to keep our money safe, but it would seem the Fed is using the banks - and therefore our money - to continue funding their losses. This is another chapter in the government's secret war on our cash!

The Fed circumvented the debt ceiling to borrow billions for failed banks - The Hill

by Paul H. Kupiec, opinion contributor

As a consequence of its COVID crisis asset purchase program and the subsequent increases in interest rates needed to fight inflation, the Fed is now losing billions of dollars a week.

The Fed’s most recent H.4.1 statement shows that the Fed has borrowed $41 billion to pay its cash losses, but these borrowings do not count as U.S. Treasury debt and are not counted against the congressional Treasury debt ceiling limit.

In the past week, the Fed’s financial statement shows it borrowed an additional $143 billion to fund the FDIC’s bailout of Silicon Valley Bank (SVB) and Signature Bank, even though the FDIC is supposed to fund bank bailouts using the deposit insurance fund and, if need be, by borrowing from the U.S. Treasury. Instead, the Fed borrowed these funds and lent them to the FDIC to keep these bank failures from reducing the Treasury’s cash balances. You may recall that the Treasury is already precluded from any additional borrowing under the current congressional debt limit.

The Fed is now losing billions of dollars each month. The losses are a consequence of the Fed’s huge investment portfolio that yields around 2 percent but costs about 4.6 percent to finance. Measured using generally accepted accounting principles, the Fed is now approximately bankrupt. As operating losses mount in the months and years to come, its cumulative operating losses and the Fed’s GAAP equity capital deficit will grow.

The Fed pays for its cash operating losses in two ways. READ MORE

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3.20.23 - Gold Tops $2,000

Gold last traded at $1,979 an ounce. Silver at $22.54 an ounce.

EDITOR'S NOTE: Gold topped $2,000 an ounce Monday for the first time in years, before settling back just under that threshold. It comes as no surprise with bank health being assessed globally in the last week. The question remains, how many banks are teetering this close to the edge and how many are about to fail? Could one of them be your bank?

Gold Declines as Traders Assess Banking Crisis, Fed Rate Path -Yahoo!Finance

by Yvonne Yue Li and Eddie Spence

(Bloomberg) -- Gold slipped after earlier rising above $2,000 an ounce for the first time in a year as a deal to buy Credit Suisse Group AG failed to fully ease fears over the global banking sector.

The haven earlier rose as much as 1% despite regulators worldwide rushing to shore up market confidence over the weekend. The ongoing banking woes are also spurring bets that central banks may embark on a slower pace of monetary tightening.

Bullion surged 6.5% last week in its biggest advance since early on in the pandemic after several regional American lenders collapsed and concerns grew over the Swiss bank’s health.

“The treatment of AT1 bonds has introduced a new source of uncertainty,” Marcus Garvey, head of metals strategy at Macquarie Group Ltd., wrote in a note. “The longer uncertainty rolls on, with neither market fears being wholly calmed nor a full-blown systematic crisis unfolding, the higher gold prices should be able to trade.” READ MORE

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3.17.23 - Yellen's Bailout Stammer

Gold last traded at $1,988 an ounce. Silver at $22.60 an ounce.

EDITOR'S NOTE: 'Tis the season for more bailouts. Yellen got a bit tripped up when confronted about the government's involvement in bailing out more failed financial institutions. The question, how much more strain can the economy handle before things finally crumble?

Watch: Yellen Stammers After Senator Corners Her On Bailouts, Protecting CCP-Linked Deposits -ZeroHedge

By Tyler Durden

Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen was caught flat-footed on Thursday during testimony before the Senate Finance Committee, after Sen. James Lankford (R-OK) grilled her over whether all deposits at Oklahoma community banks would now be fully insured like those at Silicon Valley Bank and Signature Bank.

"Will they get the same treatment that SVB just got, or Signature Bank just got?" asked Lankford.

"I'm concerned you're...encouraging anyone who has a large deposit at a community bank to say, 'we're not going to make you whole, but if you go to one of our preferred banks, we will make you whole," Lankford said.

"That is certainty not something that we’re encouraging," Yellen replied.

"A bank only gets that treatment" under the systemic risk exception rule, Yellen continued, explaining that it takes a 'supermajority' vote to do so.

"I, in consultation with the president, determine that the failure to protect uninsured depositors would create systemic risk and significant economic and financial consequences," she said. READ MORE AND WATCH

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3.16.23 - The Fed Finally Broke Something

Gold last traded at $1,919 an ounce. Silver at $21.70 an ounce.

EDITOR'S NOTE: While the Fed is only partly to blame for the banking crisis we now find ourselves in, it sure seems like they didn't see this coming - which is essentially their one job. Now they have two options, raise rates and deepen this crisis or pause their aggressive actions and weaken the dollar beyond repair. Either way, it's going to be unpleasant. Gold is the canary in the coal mine in these instances. As Mr. Rickards advises, if you want to know what's happening with this shaky economy, keep your eyes on gold.

The Fed Finally Broke Something - Daily Reckoning

by James Rickards

It’s often said that the Fed raises interest rates until something breaks. Well, something has broken.

The collapse of Silicon Valley Bank (SVB) has really thrown Jay Powell and the Fed for a loop.

Just last week, Powell issued some very hawkish testimony before Congress about the need to maintain an aggressive stance against inflation. Markets were even factoring in an 80% chance of a 0.50% rate hike at next week’s FOMC meeting.

But what a difference a week can make.

Today, the market is giving zero chance of a 0.50% rate hike. Literally zero odds. The odds of a modest 0.25% rate hike are now 70%.

I agree with that prediction, incidentally. I believe the Fed will raise rates by 0.25%.

Let’s not forget that the Fed itself is partly responsible for the SVB collapse (aside from terrible risk management by the bank itself). READ MORE

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3.15.23 - Was the Fed Lying or Blind?

Gold last traded at $1,917 an ounce. Silver at $21.78 an ounce.

Why Ray Dalio says SVB collapse is a 'canary in the coal mine'-MorningStar/MarketWatch

The financial markets were given a pretty strong jolt last week on the SVB crisis. This was no surprise to the likes of moneymind Ray Dalio, who believes this is the first in a series of dominoes we may soon see fall.

By William Watts

Bank's implosion was a 'very classic event' that's part of the short-term debt cycle, Dalio says

That's the recently retired Ray Dalio, weighing in via his popular LinkedIn page to offer his thoughts on the collapse of Silicon Valley Bank, or SVB, and the regulatory response.

SVB, whose client base was heavily concentrated among venture-capital startups, was closed by California's bank regulator on Friday, while New York's Signature Bank was shut down on Sunday -- they followed the earlier closure of Silvergate Capital. Federal regulators late Sunday announced that SVB depositors, including those with deposits above the Federal Deposit Insurance Corp. cap of $250,000, would be made whole. The Fed also announced measures to ensure deposits at other institutions remain safe.

Read:Silicon Valley Bank: Here's what happened to cause it to collapse READ MORE

Another Billionaire Bailout! - Daily Reckoning

As suspected the Fed has stepped in to "fix" the recent debacle of the SVB failure. And once again, more rewards for risky choices. In short, it is the American public who will pay the price for billionaires' bad behavior.

By James Rickards

The financial world is today reeling from the failure of Silicon Valley Bank (SVB). SVB was an FDIC insured commercial bank regulated by the State of California and the Federal Reserve System.

On Friday, March 10, the FDIC abruptly closed the bank, moved some deposits to a newly created bank controlled by regulators, wiped out large deposits, and began a process of selling bank assets and gradually repaying creditors.

The big news came out yesterday that all SVB depositors will be made whole. They just tore up the rules and changed them on the fly.

Bank deposit insurance is $250,000 per deposit. If you want to deposit more than that amount of money in the bank, you should open an additional account or accounts, depending on the amount you’re depositing. Otherwise, any money over the $250,000 limit would be at risk if you just held it in one account.

Well, guess what? Over 90% of the deposits in SVB exceeded the insured amount. That means that companies with deposits of over $250,000 were reckless and failed to implement the necessary risk management by parking it all in one place. It’s not as if they weren’t aware of FDIC limit. But they did it anyway. READ MORE

A Bank Crisis Was Predictable. Was the Fed Lying or Blind? -Mises.org

Even though the Fed claims taxpayers will not be footing the bill for the recent SVB bailout, do we really believe that's true? People are being bailed out by the FDIC as directed by the Fed. Is there really a difference or is it merely a "shell game" as is being asserted in this article? You be the judge.

By Tho Bishop

Welcome to Whose Economy Is It, Anyway?, where the rules are made up and the dollars don’t matter. Or at least that seems to be the view of the Yellen regime.

As Doug French noted last week, Silicon Valley Bank (SVB) was the canary in the coal mine. Over the weekend, Signature Bank became the third-largest bank failure in modern history, just weeks after both firms were given a stamp of approval by KPMG, one of the Big Four auditing firms.

While some in the crypto community are suggesting that the closure of Signature Bank has more to do with a larger war on crypto, the regulatory action was enough to push coordinated action from the Federal Reserve, Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation (FDIC), and the Treasury to do what they do best, ignore clearly established rules to flood a financial crisis with liquidity.

Out: FDIC insurance limits on bank deposits lower than $250,000, haircuts for the largest bank depositors, and Walter Bagehot’s golden rule to lenders of last resort, “Lend freely, at a high rate of interest, against good collateral.” In: emergency financing to secure all deposits, accepting collateral at face value (rather than its current diminished market value) with no fee. READ MORE

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3.14.23 - Bad banks need consequences

Gold last traded at $1,903 an ounce. Silver at $21.68 an ounce.

EDITOR'S NOTE: Should banks who make risky investment choices be bailed out? Or should they face the natural consequences of their choices as the rest of us must? One thing is for certain, either option involves the government stepping in - which means, once again, taxpayers will pay.

Why We Should Let Bad Banks Fail -Fee.org

Bad banks need consequences. Let them fail.

By Peter Jacobsen

By now, you’ve likely heard about regulators closing down Silicon Valley Bank (SVB) and now Signature Bank as well....

Essentially, SVB received a large influx of deposits as the Federal Reserve flooded the market with dollars during COVID.

From there, SVB went out and bought government bonds to store that money. But then, the Federal Reserve started enacting policies which moved interest rates up. The problem? As interest rates rose, the bonds SVB purchased in the past declined in value.

Bond prices and the interest rate have an inverse relationship. If interest rates increase, you can earn a higher return on financial assets purchased today. When that happens, bonds issued at a previously lower rate must sell at a discount to compete.

So when rates rose, SVB’s assets (composed largely of old lower-rate government bonds) plummeted in value.

Let Losers Lose

The key question now is, what are we going to do about it?

I have a modest proposal—let them fail. READ MORE

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3.13.23 - Will More Banks Fail?

Gold last traded at $1,913 an ounce. Silver at $21.80 an ounce.

EDITOR'S NOTE: Hedge Fund Manager Bill Ackman believes depositors in Silicon Valley Bank will have access to half their funds today and the other half three to six months from now; but that's only for the people with less than $250,000.00 in holdings. The rest? Read on to see what they will face. But there is even greater concern that this failure is just the tip of the iceberg. Right now this is perhaps the single, most pressing reason to be diversified into physical metals: A tangible, non-debt encumbered asset with global liquidity. Call your Swiss America representative today to find out more.

SVB Collapse: Legendary Financier Bill Ackman Warns of Massive Bank Runs - The Street

The hedge fund manager says that it is likely that Silicon Valley depositors will have access to around 50% of their funds on Monday, but the remaining 50% will not be available for 3-6 months.

by Luc Olinga

The latter shut down the bank, which was the go-to lender for startups and many Silicon Valley businesses, including California wineries and farmers.

SVB’s failure, which was the second-largest of a bank in U.S. history, on March 10, has shaken many investors. It was the result of a bank run, caused by the bank’s announcement that it planned to raise $2.25 billion by issuing new common and convertible preferred shares to shore up its finances, after it sold bonds in its portfolio of investments at a $1.8 billion loss.

About $42 billion of deposits were withdrawn by the end of March 9, according to a regulatory filing. By the close of business that day, SVB had a negative cash balance of $958 million, according to the filing.

The Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation took control and is now the manager of $175 billion in customer deposits, including money from several startups and from some of the biggest names in the technology world. READ MORE

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3.10.23 - Are bigger banks next?

Gold last traded at $1,861 an ounce. Silver at $20.43 an ounce.

EDITOR'S NOTE: Bad fundamentals in financial markets are not discriminatory when it comes to their repercussions. The Fed's poor policy moves are now affecting banks in Silicon Valley - an area synonymous with wealth and abundance. Yet another example of an economy that seems to be one bad report away from disaster.

Why Silicon Valley Bank's crisis is rattling America's biggest banks -Yahoo! Finance

Rising rates and deposit withdrawals pinched SVB and Silvergate. Could the same happen to bigger banks?

by Dan Fitzpatrick - Editor

Image Courtesy of Yahoo

Why? Three words: rising interest rates.

The Federal Reserve’s aggressive campaign to bring down inflation helped set the stage for major problems at two California lending institutions — SVB Financial (SIVB) and Silvergate Capital (SI) — as an outflow of deposits forced both to sell assets at a loss. Those assets were bonds.

Banks are big investors in assets like Treasury bills because they need lots of safe places to park their cash. Many financial institutions piled into these investments during a period of historically-low interest rates that spanned the early years of the pandemic, as banks took in tons of new deposits and lending was somewhat restrained.

But now the Fed is hiking rates at a rapid clip, with Fed Chair Jay Powell warning earlier this week the central bank may have to speed up the pace of its rate increases to cool the economy further. The problem that creates for banks is simple: higher rates lower the value of their existing bonds. READ MORE

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3.9.23 - McDonald Prediction: 'Stock market will crash in 60 days'

Gold last traded at $1,830 an ounce. Silver at $20.09 an ounce.

EDITOR'S NOTE: I've always believed that no person has a crystal ball. However, there are some who may have a better idea than the rest of us of what lies ahead , based on their experience or expertise in a particular field. When someone like Larry MacDonald is suggesting a crash is 60 days out, it may be wise to heed his warning.

Stock market will crash in 60 days, best-selling author on Lehman collapse warns -Yahoo!Finance

by Kristen Altus

After Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell indicated the bank isn’t finished raising rates, one market expert has warned a crash could come in a matter of days.

"They're playing catch up, and while they were doing quantitative easing in 2021, inflation started to rage and now they're trying to catch up," The Bear Traps Report founder Larry McDonald said Wednesday on "Mornings with Maria."

"Our 21 Lehman systemic risk indicators that look at equity and credit point to one of the highest probabilities of a crash in the stock market looking out 60 days," McDonald, who is also known for writing a best-selling book on the Lehman Brothers collapse, cautioned.

The withdrawal of capital from middle-class families has been "spectacular," McDonald argued, as the Fed continues its most aggressive rate hike campaign since the 1980s to crush decades-high inflation. Although the consumer price index has slowly fallen from a high of 9.1% notched last June, it remains about three times higher than the pre-pandemic average. READ MORE

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3.8.23 - Biden Pitches Tax Hike .. Again

Gold last traded at $1,813 an ounce. Silver at $20.02 an ounce.

Traders Are Betting the Fed Will Hike Rates by a Half-Point in March -Yahoo!Finance

As we all look for some form of financial reprieve, Wall Street traders are betting it is not coming soon. The Fed continues to move rates in hopes of balancing the economy, all the while they continue to put the squeeze on our budgets.

by Ye Xie and Benjamin Purvis

(Bloomberg) -- Bond traders boosted bets that the Federal Reserve may re-accelerate the pace of rate increases at the policy meeting later this month, after central bank head Jerome Powell said he’s ready for faster monetary tightening if economic data justifies it.

Interest-rate swaps Tuesday showed a shift in bets for the March 22 meeting, with a half-point hike seen as more likely than a quarter-point move. Traders are betting that the Fed will raise the key borrowing costs by 109 basis points to a peak of about 5.66% by September.

Shorter-maturity notes led the jump in yields, deepening the inversion of the yield curve and pushing the two-year Treasury rate above 5% for the first time since 2007.

An upside down-shaped curve suggests that traders anticipate a more restrictive policy that will slow down the economy significantly. The Bloomberg dollar index jumped to a level unseen since early January, while the S&P 500 Index tumbled around 1.7%. READ MORE

ADP Reports Wage Growth Slowing Despite Job Gains -ZeroHedge

The good news? The job market is growing. The bad news? Wage growth is slowing. Sometimes you have to take the good with the bad. In this case however - with the cost of living expenses steadily on the rise - this is bad news with a bite for US households.

by Tyler Durden

After tumbling last month to its lowest in two years (blamed on weather), ADP's employment report was expected to show a rebound in Feb, adding 200k jobs. The actual print was even higher at +242k (with January's revised up to +119k).

Large companies dominated the beat...

Business Services and Construction sectors saw job losses...

DP's chief economist Nela Richardson said of the January weakness, "we saw the impact of weather-related disruptions on employment during our reference week."

Richardson's comments for February: READ MORE

Traders Are Betting the Fed Will Hike Rates by a Half-Point in March -Yahoo!Finance

As we all look for some form of financial reprieve, Wall Street traders are betting it is not coming soon. The Fed continues to move rates in hopes of balancing the economy, all the while they continue to put the squeeze on our budgets.

by Ye Xie and Benjamin Purvis

(Bloomberg) -- Bond traders boosted bets that the Federal Reserve may re-accelerate the pace of rate increases at the policy meeting later this month, after central bank head Jerome Powell said he’s ready for faster monetary tightening if economic data justifies it.

Interest-rate swaps Tuesday showed a shift in bets for the March 22 meeting, with a half-point hike seen as more likely than a quarter-point move. Traders are betting that the Fed will raise the key borrowing costs by 109 basis points to a peak of about 5.66% by September.

Shorter-maturity notes led the jump in yields, deepening the inversion of the yield curve and pushing the two-year Treasury rate above 5% for the first time since 2007.

An upside down-shaped curve suggests that traders anticipate a more restrictive policy that will slow down the economy significantly. The Bloomberg dollar index jumped to a level unseen since early January, while the S&P 500 Index tumbled around 1.7%. READ MORE

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3.7.23 - Low-Income Americans are Angry

Gold last traded at $1,813 an ounce. Silver at $20.07 an ounce.

EDITOR'S NOTE: In all the ups and downs of interest rates, waning markets and inflationary pressures Americans have faced, what seemingly always gets lost on the government is the toll it takes on US households. In these post-pandemic days as people are financially stranded once again, some are going as far as to say they feel the government is trying to kill them.

'The Government Is Trying To Kill Us Now': Low-Income Americans Fume In Mile-Long Food Lines After Pandemic Benefits End -ZeroHedge

Over the past year, 18 US states have officially ended pandemic-era states of emergency - including the covid food benefit, while a December mandate from Congress will end aid in March for the other 32 states, along with the District of Columbia, the US Virgin Islands and Guam.

The collective return to pre-pandemic policies includes enhanced unemployment benefits and child tax credits, as well as a rollback adjustment to Medicaid that boosted enrollment.

Now, people are waiting up to nine hours in mile-long lines for free food - some of whom say they can only afford to eat once per day, while others say they limit expensive food items such as meat for specific family members, such as growing teenage boys.

"I thought, ‘Wow, the government is trying to kill us now," said 63-year-old Danny Blair of Kentucky. Blair, who lives in a mobile home with his wife, survives on his Social Security disability check, the Washington Post reports.

"They are going to starve us out," Blair continued, apparently unaware that government assistance provided during the pandemic wasn't permanent.

Blair and his wife hop into their truck twice a month at 4 a.m. to ensure they get a few staples at the Hazel Green Food Project’s giveaway. On a recent Friday, they waited nine hours until local prisoners on work duty started loading bags of meat and vegetables, potato chips and cookies into vehicles in one of the nation’s most impoverished communities.

From the front to the back of the line, the sea of despair and hardship along this desolate Kentucky highway foreshadowed what may be in store for millions of Americans as the federal government ended the remaining pandemic increase in monthly food stamp benefits this week. -WaPo

As the Post frames it, the pullback of pandemic-related aid could pose a setback to the Biden administration's efforts to 'slash poverty' while building a 'healthier and more sustainable middle class' - none of which were the stated goals of the temporary aid. READ MORE

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3.6.23 - Government Will Track Every Dime You Spend

Gold last traded at $1,855 an ounce. Silver at $21.25 an ounce.

EDITOR'S NOTE: I'm sure it comes as no surprise that our government is watching us and our finances at every turn. Are they keeping our financial system safe; or are they infrigning upon our privacy? This is a major reason our clients - and myself for that matter - have positioned a portion of our investment dollars in a more private, non-debt encumbered form of wealth through precious metals.

Biden's Executive Order Nightmare: Government Will Track Every Dime You Spend -ZeroHedge

Authored by Lawrence Kadish via The Gatestone Institute

Posted by Tyler Durden

When I was a sparring partner for professional boxers many, many years ago, I was taught to be wary of the jab. It is a tactic used to distract an opponent while setting him up for a devastating power punch that takes him down for the count.

Biden is throwing jabs.

In a 21st Century world where cryptocurrency and cybercrime are now embedded threats to our collective financial security, this Executive Order would seem to address these issues. That is the jab.

In fact, this order includes language that allows the Federal Reserve System to "explore" the possibility of introducing digital currency into the United States. This means that your cash becomes so much colored paper. That would not be the only catastrophic impact on our society and the nation's economy.

Under this new digital currency, any transfer of funds to family, friends, charities, or clients would be able to be tracked by the nation's central bank that issued this virtual money. Big Brother will be in your wallet every hour or every day.

You will not be able to buy a stick of gum without a Federal Reserve computer knowing where, when, and to whom you just put down a buck. READ MORE

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3.3.23 - The Carnage is Coming Fast and Furious

Gold last traded at $1,855 an ounce. Silver at $21.25 an ounce.

EDITOR'S NOTE: Wall Street's largest commercial real estate landlord has just defaulted to the tune of hundreds of millions of dollars. Yet another reflection of a fractured economy that seems eerily close to a full blown financial catastrophe. Don't get caught by surprise if and when the oft predicted market collapse occurs. Diversify into gold & silver today!

Blackstone Defaults On $562MM CMBS As It Keeps Blocking Investor Withdrawals From $71BN REIT -ZeroHedge

by Tyler Durden

Now that soaring rates have burst the commercial real estate bubble, the carnage is coming fast and furious.

This morning Bloomberg reports that Wall Street's largest commercial real estate landlord, private equity giant Blackstone, has defaulted on a €531 million ($562 million) bond backed by a portfolio of offices and stores owned by Sponda Oy, a Finnish landlord it acquired in 2018.

While the PE firm had sought an extension from holders of the securitized notes to allow time to dispose of assets and repay the debt, the surge in market volatility triggered by the war in Ukraine and rising interest rates interrupted the sales process and bondholders voted against a further extension, the Bloomberg sources said.

And since the security has now matured and has not been repaid, loan servicer Mount Street has determined that an event of default has occurred, according to a statement Thursday. The loan will now be transferred to a special servicer.

“This debt relates to a small portion of the Sponda portfolio,” a Blackstone representative said in an emailed statement. “We are disappointed that the servicer has not advanced our proposal, which reflects our best efforts and we believe would deliver the best outcome for note holders. We continue to have full confidence in the core Sponda portfolio and its management team, whose priority remains delivering high-quality retail and office assets.” READ MORE

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3.2.23 - The US Has Entered The Inflation Death Spiral

Gold last traded at $1,835 an ounce. Silver at $20.90 an ounce.

EDITOR'S NOTE: Food, housing, medical, and tuition: Four costs that apply to the majority of households. The same four words are specifically mentioned in the context of the US entering into an "inflation death spiral". Another example of how today's economic mess will affect everyone. Gold and silver provide a great hedge for investments and retirement savings against this spiral.

The Top 3 Reasons The US Has Entered The Inflation Death Spiral -ZeroHedge

by Nick Giambruno

Rapidly rising food, housing, medical, and tuition prices are squeezing Americans, and many do not understand the real cause of their falling living standards.

That confusion opens the door for opportunistic politicians who promise supposed freebies to ease the pain of inflation. Many, unfortunately, succumb to this siren’s call.

Perverse as it is, the policies offered to people suffering from inflation create even more inflation. In other words, inflation has a way of perpetuating itself, much like a heroin addiction.

We are already seeing cockamamie schemes in the US, like “inflation relief checks,” which attempt to solve the problems of inflation by creating more inflation.

The political-inflation cycle follows a clear pattern:

Step #1: In a fiat currency system, the government will inevitably print an ever-increasing amount of currency to finance itself.

Step #2: This makes prices and living costs rise faster than wages... READ MORE

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3.1.23 - US Bankruptcy Filings Surge

Gold last traded at $1,836 an ounce. Silver at $20.99 an ounce.

Car Debt Is Piling Up as More Americans Owe Thousands More Than Vehicles Are Worth -Yahoo! Finance

With rising interest rates and subsequent higher car loan costs, could the car market be another financial bubble waiting to burst? This factor - coupled with the sea of car loans that are upside down - could be a surefire recipe for disaster.

By Paige Smith and Michael Sasso

(Bloomberg) -- Chris Martin knew he needed a bigger car as the birth of his fourth child approached, but he and his wife were already $14,000 underwater on their two vehicles.

So the couple proposed an unusual two-for-one deal with an Atlanta-area auto dealer in 2020: trading in both of their vehicles so they could afford a three-row Ford Explorer. Their total loan after factoring in negative equity, a service contract, fees and other costs ballooned to $66,000 on the $49,000 Explorer.

Despite a lot of progress on the debt, he feels uneasy. “I don’t want to be paying interest on cars that I don’t even have anymore,” said Martin, a 36-year-old data engineer.

The build-up in negative equity — or the amount that debt exceeds a vehicle’s value — is rattling consumers and raising alarms within the industry. Though it’s not unusual for drivers to carry negative equity, some dealers say more people are arriving at their lots up to $10,000 underwater, or “upside down,” on their trade-ins. They’re buying at still-sky-high prices and rolling debt from one car to another and even onto a third. Loans are commonly stretching to seven years. READ MORE

US Bankruptcy Filings Surge At Fastest Pace Since 2009 -ZeroHedge

In the continuum of bad financial reports, household bankruptcies can be added to the list. This is just another example of the real life strain this Fed-driven economy is having on American families.

By Tyler Durden

For the past year, both the Biden White House and the Fed have been desperate to usher in a (mild) recession in the US to break the back of runaway inflation and the wage-price spiral with little success. But judging by the surge in bankruptcy filings, they are about to get their wish.

One month ago, when looking at the recent pace of large bankruptcy filings (those with more than $50MM in liabilities), we noted a troubling trend: in the first month of the year, the number of US bankruptcies topped 20, the highest in any other January dating back to 2010. Back then, 25 filings were seen as the economy was still reeling from the aftermath of the GFC.

The spike in defaults was not a fluke, and according to Bloomberg data, one month later - as of the end of February - no less than 39 large companies had filed for bankruptcy in the US so far this year, as February's pace matches that of January; the YTD total represents the fastest pace of companies filing for bankruptcy since the immediate aftermath of the global financial crisis in 2009. By comparison, US bankruptcy courts had seen 63 large filings at this point in 2009. READ MORE

Stock Market At ‘Critical’ Level And Braced For ‘High Risk’ Of Collapse In March—Here’s What Investors Should Know -Forbes

March is here and it's not looking like the rosiest of forecasts as we start the month. As the headline below reads, when it comes to the stock market we're hearing some of those nasty words again, like "critical" & "high risk". Certainly not how any of us would like our investment portfolio or retirement funds described.

By Jonathan Ponciano

After a slew of data showing the economy in a much more precarious position than previously believed, the stock market could be poised for another forceful plunge in March, according to Morgan Stanley’s investment chief, who notes that the last month of the quarter has been difficult for stocks over the year, as investors gear up for a fresh round of negative earnings reports.

Though high inflation and Federal Reserve interest rate hikes have fueled much of the fears driving the ongoing stock weakness, the depth and length of most bear markets are determined by the trend in earnings projections, the Morgan Stanley team led by Michael Wilson told clients in a Monday note.

Over the past year, stocks have rallied as corporate earnings come out, but then plunged in the month leading up to new reports, which have consistently shown companies cutting profit expectations.

After surging more than 16% since October and then abruptly falling 3% last week, the S&P 500 is at a “critical” level, cautions Wilson, saying there’s a “high risk” the bear market could induce a forceful stock plunge in March (the last month of the quarter)—particularly since earnings are expected to take another hit once reports start trickling in. READ MORE

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2.28.23 - Older Americans struggling to save for retirement

Gold last traded at $1,826 an ounce. Silver at $20.91 an ounce.

EDITOR'S NOTE: More and more Americans are now facing a vastly different retirement situation than the one they had planned. Even retiring in the most cost effective state, Kansas, would require a suggested $753,000. That's a real problem considering the current average holding in retirement accounts is $144,000.

Older Americans increasingly struggling to save for retirement -Yahoo! Finance

By Mark Strassmann

For millions of Americans, saving enough for retirement is one of their biggest challenges, especially as recent Wall Street losses have led to shrinking 401(k) plans.

Senior planning executive Daniel Fitzpatrick's original goal was to retire at 60. He's now 64 and still working. Fitzpatrick currently has an income in the low six-figures.

"The benchmarks move as I get older," Fitzpatrick said. Now, his goal is to retire at 70 and then "look for something part-time afterward."

The national average for one person to live comfortably in retirement is around $967,000 in savings, according to the Federal Reserve. Every retirement scenario is different, but that's about $74,000 a year for the average American to live through retirement.

The most expensive state to retire in is Hawaii, with Americans needing to save around $1.7 million. The most affordable is Kansas, at $753,000 in savings needed.

But the typical retirement account balance in only $144,000, according to the federal reserve.

Rohan Ganduri, a finance professor at Emory University, warns that Social Security won't be enough for most people.

"The average Social Security benefits that people draw are about $20,000 a year," he said. "If you're relying on just Social Security, it will be very difficult to make ends meet." READ MORE

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2.27.23 - US economy headed for 'collision'

Gold last traded at $1,817 an ounce. Silver at $20.63 an ounce.

EDITOR'S NOTE: Yet another noted financial mind weighs in on the current condition of our economy; and he suggests we're heading toward a 'collision'. It's getting harder to deny that even tougher times are on the horizon.

Larry Summers warns US economy headed for 'collision' as Fed rate hikes aren't working -Fox Business

Despite the Federal Reserve's best efforts, high inflation is sticking around and putting the U.S. economy on a "collision" course, according to former Treasury Secretary Larry Summers.

Summers – a Harvard University professor who served in both the Clinton and Obama administrations – said during an interview on Bloomberg News that recent evidence of strong underlying inflationary pressures in the economy suggests that the Fed's tighter monetary policy is having a limited impact.

"The Fed’s been trying to put the brakes on, and it doesn’t look like the brakes are getting much traction," he said.

In the span of just a year, the Fed has voted to raise its benchmark interest rate from zero to a range of 4.5% to 4.75%. At their last meeting, policymakers signaled that a "couple more" increases are on the table this year.

Despite the aggressive interest-rate hike campaign, inflation remains uncomfortably hot: The Labor Department reported last week that the consumer price index rose 0.5% in January, the most in three months. The annual inflation rate also surprised to the upside at 6.4%, underscoring the stickiness of high consumer prices that have broadened throughout the economy. READ MORE

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2.24.23 - Is The World Heading For A ‘Catastrophic’ Event?

Gold last traded at $1,811 an ounce. Silver at $20.77 an ounce.

EDITOR'S NOTE: Cyber Apocalypse: Yet another compelling reason to have a portion of your wealth in something tangible, like gold. According to some of the world's leading experts in the field, we are two years away from a serious cyber attack on our wealth system totaling $10 trillion! If that prediction is correct, the amount of cyber theft we will see will have tripled in just eight short years.

Cyber Apocalypse 2023: Is The World Heading For A ‘Catastrophic’ Event? -Forbes

By Bernard Marr

As the 2023 annual meeting of the World Economic Forum wrapped up in Davos, Switzerland, it ended with a disturbing prediction from one of the leading voices. Delivering a presentation on the 2023 Global Cybersecurity Outlook report, forum Managing Director Jeremy Jurgens revealed that 93 percent of those surveyed believe that a “catastrophic” cyber security event is likely in the next two years.

By 2025, it’s expected that cybercrime will cost the world economy around $10.5 trillion annually, increasing from $3 trillion in 2015 according to Cybersecurity Ventures. To put that in context, if it were a country, then cybercrime would have the third largest GDP behind the US and China. Key drivers of this growth are the ongoing digitization of society, behavioral changes due to the global Covid-19 pandemic, political instability such as the war in Ukraine, and the global economic downturn.

According to the WEF report, of particular concern is that the nature of cybercrime is becoming increasingly unpredictable. This is due to technology becoming more complex – in particular, breakthrough technologies such as artificial intelligence. This means that we are increasingly at risk of what has been termed a “catastrophic” cyberattack – one that will have severe and ongoing ramifications for society at large. READ MORE

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2.23.23 - Here comes the hard economic landing

Gold last traded at $1,822 an ounce. Silver at $21.32 an ounce.

EDITOR'S NOTE: Add Bond King Jeffrey Gundlach to the growing chorus of those who see a hard landing ahead. The economic factors contributing to these predictions are growing increasingly worse. Avoid the worst of this crash landing by diversfiying your assets now, before markets hit the ground.

Bond king Jeffrey Gundlach: Here comes the hard economic landing -Yahoo! Finance

By Brian Sozzi

The bond king is bracing for a hard economic landing.

"We have been preparing for a hard landing at DoubleLine," DoubleLine Capital founder and CEO Jeffrey Gundlach exclusively told Yahoo Finance Live.

Gundlach says his investment firm has been girding for such a scenario — a period of very weak economic growth fueled mostly by aggressive Fed interest rate hikes and stubbornly high inflation — for several quarters by increasing exposure to relatively safe Treasury securities.

Ultimately, Gundlach said he thinks it doesn't matter if there is a "soft" or "hard" landing. He said it's likely markets are on the cusp of having to digest a sharp economic slowdown — and they are ill prepared to do so.

"People are always asking me this question: how bad the recession is going to be. It doesn't matter as long as we're going into recession. You have to have certain degree of protection," Gundlach said.

He added: "In either case, you need an umbrella." READ MORE

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2.22.23 - S&P 500 Could Drop 26% in Months

Gold last traded at $1,825 an ounce. Silver at $21.52 an ounce.

1 in 6 retirees are mulling a return to work. What to consider before ‘unretiring’ -CNBC

For many of us retirement might be something we're looking forward to at the conclusion of our professional lives. Time to travel, spend time with family or just enjoy the quiet. As inflation - coupled with other negative factors - continues to take root in our economy; this goal may not only get further away but be out of the question for some altogether.

By Sarah O'Brien

For some retirees, heading back to work has emerged as an aspiration.

Roughly 1 in 6 retired Americans say they are mulling over whether to get a job, according to a recent study from Paychex. On average, those “unretiring” individuals have been out of the workforce for four years.

The top reasons cited by people surveyed for the report were “personal reasons” (57%), “needing more money” (53%) and “getting bored” (52%). “Feeling lonely” (45%) and “inflation” (45%) rounded out the top five reasons for considering employment.

Over time, the number of older adults in the workforce has been growing. Among adults ages 65 to 74, the workforce participation rate was 25.8% in 2021, according to the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. That share is expected to grow to 30.7% by 2031. In the 75-and-older crowd, the portion in the workforce is expected to reach 11.1%, up from 8.6% in 2021.

If you find yourself among the retirees thinking about “unretirement,” there are some things to consider before you return to work. READ MORE

Morgan Stanley Says S&P 500 Could Drop 26% in Months -Yahoo! Finance

We have heard several warnings of a potential pullback in the stock market. It's not a difficult sell given the seemingly endless number of negative economic reports. Morgan Stanley has put an actual number of what kind of market drop we may expect.

By Farah Elbahrawy and Sagarika Jaisinghani

(Bloomberg) -- Expensive US equities are flashing a warning sign that could see the S&P 500 sliding as much as 26% in the first half of this year, according to Morgan Stanley strategists.

While recent data suggest the economy might be able to dodge a recession, they’ve also taken the possibility of a Federal Reserve pivot off the table, according to a team led by Michael Wilson. That doesn’t bode well for stocks as the sharp rally this year has left them the most expensive since 2007 by the measure of equity risk premium, which has entered a level known as the “death zone,” the strategist said.

The risk-reward for equities is now “very poor,” especially as the Fed is far from ending its monetary tightening, rates remain higher across the curve and earnings expectations are still 10% to 20% too high, Wilson wrote in a note.

“It’s time to head back to base camp before the next guide down in earnings,” said the strategist — ranked No. 1 in last year’s Institutional Investor survey when he correctly predicted the selloff in stocks. READ MORE

‘Goldilocks’ is dead, warns Morgan Stanley Wealth Management. The risk of an economic ‘hard landing’ is growing even if the ‘pain may be delayed’ -Yahoo! Finance

On the heels of Morgan Stanley suggesting the S&P 500 may experience a 26% drop, they are also suggesting the market will experience a harder landing than the gentle one being touted by the Fed.

By Will Daniel

Throughout January, the stock market soared as investors began to price in a “soft landing” for the economy—predicting the Federal Reserve would be able to tame inflation without sparking a recession. But Lisa Shalett, Morgan Stanley Wealth Management’s chief investment officer, warned Tuesday that “looking through the fog” to a new bull market is a bad idea.

After the U.S. economy added more than half a million jobs last month, pushing the unemployment rate to a 53-year low of 3.4%, and retail sales jumped 3%, surpassing economists’ expectations, Shalett fears the Fed will have to keep interest rates “higher for longer” to cool the economy and quash inflation.

“With consumption and inflation reheating, risks of a hard landing resembling a boom/bust are growing, even if the pain may be delayed a quarter or two,” she warned in a Tuesday note.

Recent strength in consumer spending and the labor market, along with better than expected corporate earnings, has led many investors to believe stocks are headed for a “Goldilocks scenario”—in which the economy is not too hot or too cold and where valuations remain high. But Shalett said that will only work if inflation continues to decline. And the latest consumer price index (CPI) and producer price index (PPI) data no longer show “speedily declining inflation,” according to the CIO. READ MORE

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2.21.23 - Unrelenting inflation continues its advance

Gold last traded at $1,834 an ounce. Silver at $21.84 an ounce.

EDITOR'S NOTE: We all saw this coming ... Americans are dipping deep into their savings just to make ends meet. Yet another example of the real impact of inflation. The most frightening part is, no end is in sight.

Savings getting tapped by Americans to make ends meet due to inflation -Fox Business

By Megan Henney

Unrelenting inflation is continuing to take a toll on Americans.

About 27% of U.S. households reported taking money out of savings in order to make ends meet, according to new data published in the Country Financial Security Index. More than half of the respondents – about 54% – who tapped their savings said they did so in order to pay for basic expenses like groceries and rent.

"Inflation has shredded household budgets over the past two years, and not just when it comes to one-off discretionary expenses or special occasions, but for keeping up with day-to-day bills," said Greg McBride, chief financial analyst at Bankrate.com.

Millions of Americans stashed away extra cash during the pandemic as a result of multiple stimulus checks, boosted unemployment benefits and limited spending options, but those savings are quickly dwindling.

Americans have spent down about 35% of the extra money they accumulated during the pandemic as of mid-January, according to one estimate from Goldman Sachs. By the end of the year, the bank projected that households will have spent roughly 65% of that money.

The data comes as Americans continue to confront the hottest inflation since the 1980s. The Labor Department reported this week that the consumer price index rose 0.5% in January – faster than expected – and is up 6.4% over the past 12 months. While that is down from a peak of 9.1% recorded over the summer, it remains about three times higher than the pre-pandemic average. READ MORE

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2.17.23 - Hard Landing to Hit Stocks in Second Half

Gold last traded at $1,843 an ounce. Silver at $21.77 an ounce.

EDITOR'S NOTE: The Dow was off and running to start the year; finishing up 2.8% for the month of January. Even with this promising beginning, some strategists are predicting very difficult days ahead.

BofA Says Hard Landing to Hit Stocks in Second Half -Yahoo! Finance

by Farah Elbahrawy

(Bloomberg) -- The delayed arrival of a US recession will weigh on stocks in the second half of the year, according to Bank of America Corp. strategists, who say a resilient economy thus far means interest rates will stay higher for longer.

A team led by Michael Hartnett is among those predicting a scenario known as “no landing” in the first half of the year, where economic growth will stay robust and central banks will likely remain hawkish for longer. That will probably be followed by a “hard landing” in the latter part of 2023, they wrote in a note dated Feb. 16.

Earlier this week, BofA’s global fund manager survey showed most investors aren’t convinced the equity rally of 2023 will last. Doubts have been fueled in recent days by hawkish commentary from Federal Reserve officials and US producer prices and inflation reports that pointed to continued upward pressure. US equities slumped and bond yields advanced on Thursday. READ MORE

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2.16.23 - The Collapse is Coming

Gold last traded at $1,836 an ounce. Silver at $21.59 an ounce.

EDITOR'S NOTE: More and more citizens - and financial experts - are seriously questioning the integrity of our banking system. In this video, it would seem the bankers are the ones who are most worried.

Banks admit the COLLAPSE is coming and they don't want YOU to know about it | Redacted News

Summary: Why are people around the world unable to withdraw money from their banks? Are we in for a "bail-in," meaning banks "borrow" from citizens to bail themselves out? It is not unprecedented. It has happened in more than 11 countries in recent years and very well could be coming in the U.S. and Europe.

(Redacted News has 1.7 million subscribers and this video has been viewed close too 500K times as of the time of this publishing) CLICK TO WATCH

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2.15.23 - 'Catastrophe' if debt limit not raised?

Gold last traded at $1,836 an ounce. Silver at $21.63 an ounce.

El-Erian, Rogoff Say It's Too Late to Fix Too-Low Inflation Target - Yahoo! Finance

As we all await a financial reprieve, some analysts explain why we might be holding onto false hope. The problem? The Fed's aim might be way off; which makes hitting the desired target of lower inflation impossible to hit.

By John McCorry, Tom Keene and Jonathan Ferro

(Bloomberg) -- Wall Street’s reaction to Tuesday’s consumer-price index shows investors are realizing inflation is likely to remain higher than the Federal Reserve’s goal for longer. Two heavyweight market voices say the 2% target is part of the problem.

“Back in the day, they should’ve said 3% instead of 2%,” Kenneth Rogoff, a professor at Harvard University and former Fed economist, told Bloomberg Television Tuesday. “If you change it, it means you might change it again. Inflation they’re going to allow to be elevated for longer but they’re going to say it’s going to get back to 2%, it’s just taking longer. That will be the rhetoric.”

Equities whipsawed Tuesday after data showed the CPI at 6.4% in January from a year earlier, still far above the Fed’s goal despite months of interest rate increases. Following the report, a raft of Fed officials said the central bank may need to keep tightening to ensure inflation continues to fall.

Mohamed El-Erian, the chairman of Gramercy Funds and a Bloomberg Opinion columnist, also sees the Fed stuck with an inflation target that will be challenging to reach. READ MORE

Fed's Harker Sees Interest Rates Moving to Some Level Above 5% - Yahoo! Finance

Interest rates and inflation continue to move higher. Yet another move in the wrong direction for American households and their budgets. There is also no indication as to when - if ever - this tide will turn.

By Steve Matthews

(Bloomberg) -- Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia President Patrick Harker said he believes policymakers will need to raise interest rates to some level above 5% to counter inflation that is retreating only slowly.

“We’re going to have to let the data dictate that,” Harker said in answering questions from the audience after a speech Tuesday at La Salle University. “It’s going to be above 5% in the Fed funds rate. How much above 5? It’s going to depend a lot on what we’re seeing.”

Harker spoke after data showed consumer prices climbed a higher-than-expected 6.4% in January from a year earlier, far above the Fed’s 2% goal, which is based on a separate measure. He gave a slightly more upbeat take on the latest report than other officials speaking Tuesday, who said the figures may support a higher peak level for interest rates than previously expected.

“Today we had an inflation report, it was good and it was moving down, but not quickly,” Harker said, adding he was particularly concerned by high food inflation. READ MORE

Biden, Yellen warn of 'catastrophe' if debt limit not raised - Yahoo! Finance

Biden and Yellen are issuing dire warnings and using words like, "catastrophe". The debt ceiling "crisis" is a dog and pony show to all of us at this point. I believe a fair question is, what exactly do they mean by catastrophe at a time when the cost of living and inflationary pressures are already crippling us?

By FATIMA HUSSEIN and CHRIS MEGERIAN

WASHINGTON (AP) — President Joe Biden and Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen warned Tuesday of a potential economic crisis if a deal isn't reached to increase the federal debt ceiling.

They raised the alarm during speeches to the National Association of Counties, which was holding a conference in Washington.

Biden said many local governments have recovered from the pandemic, but "some in Congress are putting that progress at risk by threatening to have America default on its debt, which would be catastrophic for counties and the country. Even coming close to default would raise borrowing costs, making it harder to finance key projects in your communities."

The concern over the debt ceiling is the result of a political showdown between House Republicans, who are demanding spending cuts, and the Democratic president, who insists on raising the limit without conditions. READ MORE

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2.14.23 - Paulson: Time to Buy Gold

Gold last traded at $1,854 an ounce. Silver at $21.86 an ounce.

EDITOR'S NOTE: Another prominent hedge fund manager sees a favorable move in gold prices this year. John Paulson sites numerous financial and economic factors as the catalyst. The factors are largely negative but the reality we seem to find ourselves in right now.

John Paulson: Now Is an Opportune Time to Buy Gold -Newsmax

by Lee Barney

The U.S. dollar’s devaluation, due to inflation and geopolitical tensions, will drive gold up considerably this year, says prominent hedge fund manager John A. Paulson.

Furthermore, gold is likely to continue to appreciate in value over the next three to five years, Paulson says in an interview with journalist Alain Elkann.

The dollar began its slow descent as world’s preeminent reserve after World War II, he says. While the U.S. dollar will remain a powerhouse, says Paulson — who shot to fame by shorting subprime mortgages ahead of the 2008 Great Recession — the U.S. dollar’s “share of world GDP has come down, and the emergence of Asia, particularly China, as an alternative economic power has risen.”

The U.S. government overshot its response to the COVID pandemic, further weakening the dollar, Paulson adds.

“The amount of money printing the U.S. central bank has done in order to simulate the economy has also caused doubt,” Paulson says.

Inflation is a direct result of this money printing, Paulson emphasizes. READ MORE

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2.13.23 - Ugliness Awaits Many Boomers

Gold last traded at $1,853 an ounce. Silver at $21.97 an ounce.

EDITOR'S NOTE: Nobody is immune from the ups and downs of the US economy recently however there is greater concern for retirees and those nearing retirement. These macro economic issues (inflation, debt, higher interest rates etc.) are and will continue to take a serious toll on those on the tailend of their working year.

Ugliness Awaits Many Boomers Nearing Retirement -Advancing Time blog

Ugliness awaits most boomers nearing retirement, not only have they been lied to, but they also have to deal with rigged markets, corruption, and incompetent advisors. Boomers make up the second-largest generation in American history, it consists of over 72 million individuals. Those that haven't already retired are getting ready to. A big problem is most have little in the way of savings.

Adding to this problem is that the generations following the baby boomer generation are even worse off and America's economic picture is less than rosy. It does not help that Americans have been encouraged over the years to spend and incur debt rather than save. This encouragement comes from politicians hooked on the idea consumer spending creates a strong economy.

This results in many people retiring with little savings and dependent on a government already deep in debt to care for them in their older years. Those of us that have studied the numbers come to shaking our heads in horror, simply put, something has to give and most likely promises will be broken, When words like unsustainable and insolvent have been muttered they simply get brushed aside by daily life. READ MORE

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2.10.23 - No Matter What the Fed Chooses: Choose Gold

Gold last traded at $1,861 an ounce. Silver at $22.03 an ounce.

EDITOR'S NOTE: Today is good news Friday ... for gold owners. At a time when it's difficult to determine the best place to invest, several experts are saying gold will do well no matter what. Read more below.

Gold - Poised to Benefit No Matter Which Path the Fed Chooses -Yahoo! Finance

All investment markets are predictive mechanisms — crystal balls, if you will, that discount future events by pricing assets today. But even though every market attempts to anticipate the future, none seem to do it as well as gold, asserts junior gold mining expert Brien Lundin, editor of Gold Newsletter.

With that said, gold is now looking ahead. And what it sees depends upon the success of the Fed’s battle against inflation. In fact, I believe it’s fair to say that the Fed is facing an historic turning point — a credibility crossroads from which it will be forced into one of two paths. And while both of these paths are bullish for gold, one is much more so.

The Crossroads

Fed Chairman Jerome Powell and his compadres at the central bank have been remarkably determined to put the inflation genie back in its bottle. They know the lesson taught by Paul Volcker in the 1970s: If you don’t kill it off completely, it will raise its ugly head again and again.

That said, they have yet to confront the three factors that I feel will prevent them from pursuing this tightening policy much longer:

1) The cost of servicing today’s massive federal debt.

2) The recession.

3) Something breaking.

One of these factors, and perhaps something I haven’t considered, will force the Fed to halt its rate-hike crusade. Accepting that, if we step back and consider the big picture, there are two possible scenarios ahead: READ MORE

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2.9.23 - Part-Time Work Growing Faster than Full-Time Work

Gold last traded at $1,861 an ounce. Silver at $21.98 an ounce.

EDITOR'S NOTE: President Biden is - yet again - out of touch with reality with his 'all is rosy' outlook. His own Fed Chair paints a much different future for the economy. When Powell starts treating a recession as an inevitability, it's hard to keep living in denial.

Another Recession Sign: Part-Time Work Is Growing Faster than Full-Time Work- Mises Institute

by Ryan McMaken

The Bureau of Labor Statistic (BLS) released new jobs data on Friday. According to the report, seasonally adjusted total nonfarm jobs rose 517,000 jobs, which was well above expectations. The words used by the media to describe the report included “stunner” and “wow.” President Joe Biden claimed the number proves his administration has delivered economic prosperity. The administration has also noted that in the official numbers, the unemployment rate is at a multidecade low. This, Biden and his supporters insist, proves the economy is remarkably strong.

There are at least a few things going on that are problematic for this narrative, however. For one, the Fed is actively taking steps to reduce the money supply in an effort to slow price inflation. A second problem is that the federal government’s own numbers show that total employment actually fell in January. A third issue is the fact that what job growth exists is in part-time employment. Taking these together—and considering what they tell us about where we are in the current economic cycle—it’s very difficult to buy into any narrative that attempts to paint the economic situation as strong, much less “wow.” READ MORE

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2.8.23 - Is the Dollar Done?

Gold last traded at $1,876 an ounce. Silver at $22.34 an ounce.

China's yuan will end US dollar dominance and create a bipolar currency system in the next decade, says 'Dr. Doom' Nouriel Roubini - Business Insider

China is once again at the forefront of what some experts are calling the end of US dollar dominance. The dollar has been bobbing and weaving for awhile now. The hope is it doesn't meet the dreaded knockout punch.

The US dollar is facing a threat from the Chinese yuan and the end of its dominance in the global financial system, according to Nouriel Roubini, chief economist at Atlas Capital Team.

In a Financial Times column on Sunday, Roubini said that as the world becomes ever more split between US and Chinese influence, "it is likely that a bipolar, rather than a multipolar, currency regime will eventually replace the unipolar one."

The so-called Dr. Doom economist, who is noted for his dire predictions, said that while skeptics typically caution that China's stiff currency controls should prevent the yuan from overtaking the dollar, the US has its own version that "reduce the appeal of dollar assets among foes and relative friends."

"These include financial sanctions against its rivals, restrictions to inward investment in many national security-sensitive sectors and firms, and even secondary sanctions against friends who violate the primary ones," Roubini wrote. READ MORE

Central banks are fighting the wrong war – the West’s money supply is already crashing - Yahoo!Finance

After years of Central Bank efforts to bolster the world's economy, some analysts are now saying they've got it all wrong. This is especially concerning in so much as our economy seems as vulnerable as a Chinese balloon over the coast of South Carolina.

Monetary tightening is like pulling a brick across a rough table with a piece of elastic. Central banks tug and tug: nothing happens. They tug again: the brick leaps off the surface into their faces.

Or as Nobel economist Paul Kugman puts it, the task is like trying to operate complex machinery in a dark room wearing thick mittens. Lag times, blunt tools, and bad data all make it nigh impossible to execute a beautiful soft-landing.

We know today that the US economy went into recession in November 2007, much earlier than originally supposed and almost a year before the collapse of Lehman Brothers. But the Federal Reserve did not know that at the time.

The initial snapshot data was wildly inaccurate, as it often is at inflexion points in the business cycle. The Fed’s “dynamic-factor markov-switching model” was showing an 8pc risk of recession. (Today it is under 5pc). It never catches recessions and is beyond useless. READ MORE

Welcome To The Global Recession, It Began In December Last Year - ZeroHedge

The recession is here...globally. As financial data from around the world is being considered, it would appear we've been in it for a bit. What does this mean for you and me - as well as the US economy? Here's what the experts are saying.

Authored by Mike Shedlock via MishTalk.com

Consumer spending hit a brick wall in the US, EU, UK and Australia. Guess what that means. READ MORE

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2.7.23 - Is Hyperinflation Next?

Gold last traded at $1,870 an ounce. Silver at $22.14 an ounce.

EDITOR'S NOTE: As we roll into the second month of 2023 the "I" word (inflation) continues to capture the financial headlines. In this commentary, inflation is presented - or defined - as the destruction of our currency. A very compelling argument for sure.

Central Bank Digital Currencies Would Bring Hyperinflation

by Daniel Lacalle

There are many excuses often used to explain inflation. However, the fact is that there is no such thing as “cost push inflation” or “commodity inflation.” Inflation is not an increase in prices, it is the destruction of the purchasing power of the currency.

Cost-push inflation is more units of currency going to relatively scarce real assets. The same can be said about all other, from commodities to demand and my favourite, “supply chain disruption”. More units of currency going to the same goods and services.

The monster inflation we have endured these years first arrived through asset inflation and then through consumer prices. Now, governments and statistical bodies are tweaking the calculation of CPI to disguise the loss of purchasing power of the currency and central banks had to hike rates after the disaster created in 2020, when the massive increase in money supply went to finance bloated government spending and created the mess we live today.

Central banks know that inflation is a monetary phenomenon and that is why they are hiking rates and tightening as fast as governments allow them. However, central banks have lost a significant amount of an already low credibility by first ignoring the inflation risk and later using the base effect and transitory excuse, only to react late and slowly. READ MORE

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2.6.23 - Savings Starting to Run Dry

Gold last traded at $1,867 an ounce. Silver at $22.28 an ounce.

EDITOR'S NOTE: The soaring cost of living is gutting the already dwindling savings accounts of American households. And it doesn't look like prices will be coming down before those savings are completely gone. Having to go into debt to pay for groceries is a reality many may soon face. What does this sort of burden mean for the long term health of our economy?

Once Flush Savings Accounts Are Starting to Run Dry -Wall Street Journal

By Joe Pinsker

The cushion of savings many built up during the pandemic is thinning out. In some households, it is already gone.

Americans have spent down about 35% of the extra savings they accumulated during the pandemic as of mid-January, according to an estimate from Goldman Sachs. By the end of the year, the company forecasts that they will have exhausted roughly 65% of that money.

In 2020 and into 2021, a combination of government pandemic stimulus and reduced spending, for example on restaurants and travel, fattened Americans’ wallets. Households amassed $2.7 trillion in extra savings by the end of 2021, according to Moody’s Analytics.

This cash helped Americans make it through a period of high inflation last year, but the forces that had acted to boost savings reversed direction as pandemic relief unwound and prices soared.

Today, some people are having to cut back on their spending or add to their credit-card balances. Many have had to tap their savings to stay afloat, say economists. READ MORE

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2.3.23 - Sleepwalking Into Selloff

Gold last traded at $1,866 an ounce. Silver at $22.41 an ounce.

EDITOR'S NOTE: It's important to pay attention to what's going on in your portfolio. Beware of rallies. Look at the fundamentals.

BofA Warns Investors Risk Sleepwalking Into Selloff - Yahoo!Finance

by Farah Elbahrawy

(Bloomberg) -- The US stock rally has already gone too far, and investors face brutal declines if economic growth crumbles in the second half of the year, Bank of America Corp. strategists say.

The “most painful trade” is always the “apocalypse postponed,” a team led by Michael Hartnett wrote in a note. The risk is that inflation flares up again over the next few months, and that the US economy faces a deeper recession in the second half of 2023 after staying resilient in the first six months of the year, they said.

Global equity funds had $44.7 billion of inflows in the past four weeks, according to the note, citing EPFR Global data. Stocks have rallied since the start of 2023 on signs of cooling inflation, optimism over China’s reopening and hopes that slower economies will force global central banks to pause hiking rates.

On Friday, data showed employers in the US added more jobs in January than expected, while the unemployment rate fell to a 53-year low, underscoring the resilience of the labor market despite the Federal Reserve’s most aggressive tightening campaign in a generation. US stock futures extended their slump. READ MORE

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2.2.23 - Warning Shot Fired! - Daily Reckoning

Gold last traded at $1,912 an ounce. Silver at $23.47 an ounce.

EDITOR'S NOTE: It’s happening. Our bankers and our government are looking to take control of digital currency. Good or bad? I say bad.

Warning Shot Fired! - Daily Reckoning

By James Rickards

Another warning shot across the bow just happened…

I warned my readers a few weeks ago about how the Federal Reserve, in cooperation with giant global banks, has launched a 12-week pilot project to test the message systems and payment processes on the new CBDC dollar.

A pilot project is not research and development. That’s already done. The pilot means that what I call “Biden Bucks” are here, and the backers just want to test the plumbing before they roll the system out on the entire population.

That project is due to be completed next month. In other words, Biden Bucks are getting closer to becoming a reality for us all. Now there is another big development to keep you up to speed…

This month, the Digital Dollar Project (DDP) released an updated version of its white paper called “Exploring a U.S. CBDC.”

The project expanded the paper in order to examine central bank digital currency projects internationally, though its focus is still on the United States. Since its original white paper release in 2020, CBDC projects worldwide have increased from 35 to 114.

Here is one statement in the updated paper: READ MORE

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2.1.23 - Central Banks Still on Quest for Gold

Gold last traded at $1,942 an ounce. Silver at $23.90 an ounce.

Start Of Bankruptcy Wave? Large Firm Filings Surge To 2010 Levels -ZeroHedge

We've transitioned from a period of quantitative easing to quantitative tightening; causing serious problems for major corporations. The Fed's tightening to get inflation under control is sending several large corporations straight into BK.

by Tyler Durden

The US has transitioned from more than a decade of quantitative easing to more recent quantitative tightening. QT will remain until the Federal Reserve is finished squashing inflation. However, such a massive paradigm shift in markets might result in a period of deleveraging among highly levered firms that were able to flourish during the QE era.

New Bloomberg data shows large companies (at least $50 million of liabilities) filing for bankruptcy topped 20 this month, the highest in any other January dating back to 2010. Back then, 25 filings were seen as the economy was still reeling from the aftermath of the GFC.

There is no doubt after more than a decade of the Fed unleashing trillions of dollars of credit into the economy via QE, a generation of zombie companies is in the midst of a painful deleveraging event as credit is harder to come by in QT. READ MORE

‘Colossal’ central bank buying drives gold demand to decade high -Financial Times

Central banks continue on their golden buying spree. They have been steadily amassing the yellow metal in the midst of what most everyone would agree are very uncertain financial times. One of the main reasons for their buying: It is an asset that does not have "counterparty risk" - which is why we all should be buying gold right now.

by Harry Dempsey

Demand for gold surged to its highest in more than a decade in 2022, fuelled by “colossal” central bank purchases that underscored the safe haven asset’s appeal during times of geopolitical upheaval.

Annual gold demand increased 18 per cent last year to 4,741 tonnes, the largest amount since 2011, driven by a 55-year high in central bank purchases, according to the World Gold Council, an industry-backed group.

Central banks hoovered up gold at a historic rate in the second half of the year, a move many analysts attribute to a desire to diversify reserves away from the dollar after the US froze Russia’s reserves denominated in the currency as part of its sanctions against Moscow. Retail investors also piled into the yellow metal in a bid to protect themselves from high inflation. READ MORE

Interest rates around the world are set to reach their highest point since 2007- YahooFinance

As many families struggle to maintain their financial households in an era of record-setting price inflation, another factor they're being forced to deal with is borrowing costs not seen since 2007. Sadly, no reprieve is in sight.

Central banks in the US, UK, and the euro zone are widely expected to raise benchmark interest rates to their highest levels since just before the financial crisis 15 years ago.

Investors expect the Federal Reserve to raise rates by 25 basis points on Feb. 1, followed by 50 basis-point increases by the Bank of England and the European Central Bank the next day. This pace marks a slowdown from last year’s aggressive hikes, as inflation cools and unemployment levels remain low.

Fed officials predicted in December that they would lift rates above 5% in 2023, and then keep them elevated through the year. The anticipated hike in February would bring the federal funds target rate to a range of 4.5% to 4.75%. READ MORE

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1.31.23 - Market headed for a 'tinderbox-timebomb'

Gold last traded at $1,928 an ounce. Silver at $23.72 an ounce.

EDITOR'S NOTE: Hedge fund manager Nassim Taleb - who called the 2008 crash - is out with a new warning of impending doom. Several other economists have expressd the same sentiment; are they correct? Read on to see why so many feel a crash is imminent and inevitable.

The market is headed for a 'tinderbox-timebomb' that will be worse than the 1929 crash, Black Swan fund manager says -Business Insider

by Jennifer Sor

Get ready for a "tinderbox timebomb" that will be even worse than the 1929 stock market crash, the manager of the "The Black Swan" hedge fund warned this week.

Universa Investments is advised by "The Black Swan" author Nassim Taleb, who called the financial crash that spurred the 2008 recession. In a recent letter to its investors, the fund warned the economy was headed for another financial collapse that could mirror the market crash leading to the Great Depression.

"It is objectively the greatest tinderbox-timebomb in financial history – greater than the late 1920s, and likely with similar market consequences," Universa's chief investment officer Mark Spitznagel said in the letter seen by Bloomberg on Tuesday.

Spitznagel has long-predicted the stock market is on a dangerous path to collapse. His bearishness recently has largely been due to the last decade of the Federal Reserve's ultra-low interest rate policy, which flooded markets with liquidity and fueled excessive borrowing. That's created a "credit bubble," Spitznagel said, predicting it would eventually burst and spark a "catastrophic market failure." READ MORE

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1.30.23 - The biggest threat to the economy right now: Jerome Powell's ego

Gold last traded at $1,922 an ounce. Silver at $23.58 an ounce.

EDITOR'S NOTE: More and more American households are struggling to afford car payments, groceries, fuel and energy. But instead of doing everything he can to ensure a soft landing for the rest of us, Jerome Powell is far more concerned with his reputation and what history will say about his time at the Fed.

How one man's ego could plunge America into a recession -Business Insider

by William Edwards

Jerome Powell was trying to save face. In November 2021, the Federal Reserve chairman was scrambling to redefine his public messaging on inflation, which had turned from a short-term pain, or in his words "transitory," into a much bigger crisis.

"I think the word 'transitory' has different meanings to different people," he said. "We tend to use it to mean that it won't leave a permanent mark in the form of higher inflation. I think it's probably a good time to retire that word."

In the 14 months since that testimony, Powell and the Fed have been on an aggressive mission to rein in prices — and reestablish their credibility as managers of the US economy. But just as their efforts have begun to produce signs of progress, Powell and the Fed face a new risk: going too far.

The Fed's ideal scenario in the months ahead is to orchestrate a so-called "soft landing," where inflation comes back down to their target level without causing a corresponding surge in unemployment or even a recession. But in order to achieve this outcome, many experts believe Powell and the Fed need to pause their aggressive interest-rate hikes. READ MORE

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1.26.23 - Gold’s Breakout: It’s Not the Inflation

Gold last traded at $1,929 an ounce. Silver at $23.91 an ounce.

EDITOR'S NOTE: Gold prices have seen steady gains since early fall which many attribute to inflationary pressure; while others suggest the steady climb has more to do with central bank buying and geopolitical factors. Whatever the actual reason, now is a time we should all be buying gold.

Gold’s Breakout: It’s Not the Inflation -Daily Reckoning

by James Rickards

Most assets have a poor record over the past year. Gold is one of the few assets that posted a gain — not a major gain, but a gain.

Gold has really taken off since late October, from below $1,630 to almost $1,930 today. That’s a major move. What’s going on?

You might want to argue that it has to do with inflation. The trouble with that argument is that (official) inflation has been coming down for the past few months. Meanwhile, gold seemed to massively underperform with respect to the very serious inflation we saw earlier last year.

So again, why are we seeing a gold spike now? The most likely answer lies with central banks and geopolitics.

Central banks as a whole, led by Russia and China, purchased 399 metric tonnes of gold in the third quarter of 2022. (Fourth-quarter data are not yet available.)

That’s the most gold ever purchased by central banks in a single calendar quarter. It represents over 1% of all the gold held by all central banks combined.

If that pace continues or increases, it would amount to an increase of over 4% per year in central bank gold reserves. READ MORE

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1.25.23 - Your Living Standards Have Declined Dramatically

Gold last traded at $1,946 an ounce. Silver at $23.90 an ounce.

BofA warns that the US economy will begin to lose 175,000 jobs per month during Q1 of 2023, expects a ‘harder landing’ rather than a softer one — here’s why - Yahoo!Finance

According to Bank of America, there's a bumpy ride ahead as far as the jobs outlook goes. Losing 175,000 jobs a month in the 1st quarter is not a good omen.

By Jing Pan

The latest jobs report shows that the U.S. labor market is in decent shape, but Bank of America sees trouble looming in the distance.

In December 2022, total nonfarm payroll employment rose by 223,000, beating economists’ expectation of a 200,000 increase. It also means that America’s job growth is heading in the right direction.

Bank of America, however, expects nonfarm payroll gains to turn negative this year. During the first quarter of 2023, the bank projects that the U.S. will be losing roughly 175,000 jobs a month.

And it’s not just the labor market that’s going to take a hit.

“We are looking for a recession to begin in the first half of next year,” Bank of America’s head of U.S. economics Michael Gapen told CNN last October.

“The premise is a harder landing rather than a softer one.” READ MORE

Your Living Standards Have Declined Dramatically -ZeroHedge

The headline below is something we would all prefer to avoid but it now applies to each and every one of us each time we fill our grocery cart, gas tank or turn on our electricity. The toll it takes may be worse on some than others, but at the end of the day it's happening rapidly and with no sign of slowing. This doesn't end well.

Authored by Jeffrey Tucker via The Epoch Times

In the old days, shopping for groceries used to be a joy. By old days, I mean two years ago. Now, it is shocking and miserable. You look at these prices and wonder if you can even afford normal foods we took for granted.

Everyone knows about the egg problem, which is being chalked up to a bird flu, just as Putin was responsible for the gas price and greedy meat processors caused beef prices to soar. Sorry but this is ridiculous. The price of eggs is up dramatically because all the costs associated with making them available to consumers are up.

At first, there was just a shortage because grocery chains resisted price increases. Once they came back to the shelves, the cost dramatically rose. You are going to pay more for the worst eggs than the best egg cost only one year ago. Unless you know someone with chickens or have them yourself, you are stuck with thin shells and light-yellow yokes forever, while paying through the nose for them.

The bottom line is undeniable: in a mere two years, many of the things you loved, healthy food for your families—I’m not talking about the all-carb diet they want us to adopt—has now doubled in price. READ MORE

Debit Limit Ceiling Crisis Could Hit Your 401(k), Social Security and Medicare -Yahoo!Finance

Here we go again; another debt ceiling crisis. Cue the collective eye roll as we all know how this ends. Congress will just raise the ceiling ... again. The word 'again' is laughable at this point as the ceiling has been raised 78 times since 1960. But this time, it looks like our retirement and retirement health services will be taking the brunt of it.

By Ashlyn Brooks

America's debt ceiling was reached - again - on January 19, 2023 as the country exceeded its $31.4 trillion spending cap. The cap was raised to that amount in December 2021. As much terms like "ceiling" and "cap" are used in this discussion, the truth is this limitation is more of a temporary hindrance than a cut-off - the cap has been raised 78 times since 1960.

While this may seem like a topic outside of your realm of concerns, the longstanding effects of not having this ceiling raised again have a strong potential to bleed over into your personal finances - namely your 401(k), Social security and Medicare. READ MORE

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1.24.23 - Silver: A Bigger Upside than Gold?

Gold last traded at $1,935 an ounce. Silver at $23.65 an ounce.

EDITOR'S NOTE: Silver is making headlines early in 2023. Many analysts are expecting a big year for the white metal: Bigger than gold!

Silver prices could touch a 9-year high in 2023 — with a bigger upside than gold -CNBC

by Lee Ying Shan

Prices of silver could hit a nine-year high of $30 per ounce this year — possibly outpacing gold prices.

The last time spot silver touched $30 levels per ounce was in February 2013, according to closing price data from Refinitiv.

Insufficient supplies of silver as well as its tendency to be a better performer than gold in periods of high inflation are key drivers supporting the outlook, analysts told CNBC.

“Silver has historically delivered gains of close to 20% per annum in years inflation is high. Given that track record, and how cheap silver remains relative to gold, it wouldn’t surprise to see silver head towards $30 per ounce this year, though that will likely offer significant resistance,” said Janie Simpson, managing director at ABC Bullion.

Spot silver prices notched a record high of $49.45 in 1980 against the backdrop of a 13.5% inflation rate, up from around $4 in 1976, when the rate of inflation was cooler at 5.7%.

The precious metal last traded $24.02 per ounce, against the backdrop of an inflation rate of 6.5%. READ MORE

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1.23.23 - Saudis Confirm Non-Dollar Oil Trade Plans

Gold last traded at $1,931 an ounce. Silver at $23.46 an ounce.

EDITOR'S NOTE: The petrocurrency battle rages on. It's a serious and heated debate as the economic ramifications could prove to be quite severe depending on what side of the move the respective countries find themselves.

Poszar Was Right: Saudis Confirm Non-Dollar Oil Trade Plans In Davos -ZeroHedge

by Tyler Durden

Earlier this month, former NY Fed repo guru Zoltan Pozsar wrote one of his most important reports of 2022, in which he described how Putin could unleash hell on the Western financial system by demanding that instead of dollars, Russian oil exporters are paid in gold, effectively pegging oil to gold and launching Petrogold.

Then, China's President Xi visit with Saudi and GCC leaders marked the birth of the petroyuan and a leap in China’s growing encumbrance of OPEC+’s oil and gas reserves: that's because with the China-GCC Summit, "China can now claim to have built a 'special relationship' not only with the '+' sign in OPEC+ (Russia), but with Iran and all of OPEC+."

At the time, Zoltan urged the reader to think of the timing of this statement in a diplomatic sense:

"President Xi communicated his message on “renminbi invoicing” not during the first day of his visit – when he met only the Saudi leadership – but during the second day of his visit – when he met the leadership of all the GCC countries – to signal the following:

GCC oil flowing East + renminbi invoicing = the dawn of the petroyuan."

And now, according to Bloomberg, Saudi Arabia is open to discussions about trade in currencies other than the US dollar, according to the kingdom’s finance minister. READ MORE

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1.20.23 - Treasury Taps Retirement Funds

Gold last traded at $1,927 an ounce. Silver at $23.94 an ounce.

EDITOR'S NOTE: Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen has casually announced that the Treasury will be raiding retirement funds to stay solvent. A brazen move she hopes will bully Congress into raising the debt ceiling as soon as possible. I hope that sounds as absurd to you as it does to me. Yellen did however give the assurance that the money will be replaced. We've heard similar promises before...

Treasury Taps Retirement Funds to Avoid Breaching US Debt Limit -Yahoo!

by Christopher Anstey

(Bloomberg) -- The Treasury Department is beginning the use of special measures to avoid a US payments default, after the federal debt limit was reached Thursday.

The department is altering investments in two government-run funds for retirees, in a move that will give the Treasury scope to keep making federal payments while it’s unable to boost the overall level of debt.

Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen informed congressional leaders of both parties of the step in a letter on Thursday. She had already notified them of the plan last week, when she flagged that the debt limit would be hit Jan. 19.

Yellen reiterated that the period of time that the extraordinary measures will avoid the government running out of cash is “subject to considerable uncertainty,” and urged Congress to act promptly to boost the debt limit. Last week she said the steps wouldn’t likely be exhausted before early June.

The specific funds affected by the Treasury’s move are:

• The Civil Service Retirement and Disability Fund, or CSRDF, which provides defined benefits to retired and disabled federal employees
• The Postal Service Retiree Health Benefits Fund, or PSRHBF, which provides postal-service retiree health-benefit-premium payments. The fund is also invested in special-issue Treasuries READ MORE

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1.19.23 - Why the Fed Is Bankrupt

Gold last traded at $1,932 an ounce. Silver at $23.85 an ounce.

EDITOR'S NOTE: As we await the Fed's next move, it would appear they have their own internal demons to battle. This article gives us a "peek under the hood" of the dynamics at play within the Fed and why this still ultimately means higher prices for the rest of us. As Mr. McMaken sums it up so poetically in his closing, "It’s all a great scam for the parasitical class. For the productive classes? Not so much."

Why the Fed Is Bankrupt and Why That Means More Inflation -Mises Instutite

by Ryan McMaken

In 2011, the Federal Reserve invented new accounting methods for itself so that it could never legally go bankrupt. As explained by Robert Murphy, the Federal Reserve redefined its losses so as to ensure its balance sheet never shows insolvency. As Bank of America’s Priya Misra put it at the time:

As a result, any future losses the Fed may incur will now show up as a negative liability (negative interest due to Treasury) as opposed to a reduction in Fed capital, thereby making a negative capital situation technically impossible.

That was twelve years ago, and it was all academic at the time. But in 2023, the Fed really is insolvent, although its fake post-2011 account doesn’t show this. Nevertheless, the reality is that the Fed’s assets are losing value at the same time that the Fed is paying out more in interest than it is making in interest income.

This became clear last week, when the Fed released a new report showing that its interest payments on bank reserves skyrocketed in 2022. The press release states:

Total interest expense of $102.4 billion increased $96.6 billion from 2021 total interest expense of $5.7 billion; of the increase in interest expense, $55.1 billion pertained to interest expense on Reserve Balances held by depository institutions and $41.5 billion related to interest on securities sold under agreements to repurchase.

As this graphic from the Fed shows, the cost of operations also exceeded earnings in 2022 because remittances have fallen from 2021: READ MORE

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1.18.23 - Are Stocks "Headed off a Cliff?"

Gold last traded at $1,904 an ounce. Silver at $23.46 an ounce.

Wall Street's 'fear gauge' flashes warning that stocks might be headed off a cliff - MarketWatch

The stock market has been showing some signs of strength recently, but is it reflective of a healthy market or a confused market? Based on some of the traditional market trackers, it could prove to be a misrepresentation of true condition of the markets.

Authored by Jack Phillips via The Epoch Times

Wall Street's fear gauge has fallen to its lowest level in months, and Wall Street strategists are concerned it could be a warning that the latest stock-market rally is coming to an end.

Specifically, they're worried that the low level of the Cboe Volatility Index, otherwise known as "the VIX," suggests that investors may have become complacent about the risks to their portfolios, raising the possibility that they could be caught off guard in a way that exacerbates the potential market mayhem, according to a series of research notes sent to clients and reviewed by MarketWatch.

Others said they're worried the low VIX will soon revert to its long-term average, bringing the latest market rebound to an end. READ MORE

Economists Warn Americans Recession Is Coming: "Don't Be Fooled" -ZeroHedge

The discussion of an impending recession continues. Not the outlook any of us prefers to see, but another reflection of an economy that's been under constant strain for the last few years. Here's what's expected...

Authored by Jack Phillips via The Epoch Times

Two top economists said that despite contrary predictions, a recession will likely hit the United States in the near future.

"Some economists argue that the strength of the labor market - as well as household balance sheets - will keep the economy strong enough to avoid a recession," wrote Lakshman Achuthan and Anirvan Banerji, the co-founders of the Economic Cycle Research Institute, in a Friday opinion article.

"We disagree," they wrote, saying that "it remains our expectation that the U.S. economy will enter a recession this year."

That's because, in part, because of the Federal Reserve's recent decisions to raise interest rates to their highest levels in decades in a bid to slow inflation levels not seen since the early 1980s, they wrote. The rate hike appears to have worked to an extent as the Labor Department last week confirmed that the consumer price index that measures inflation fell 0.1 percent in December to 6.5 percent. READ MORE

Saudi Arabia Just Killed The Petrodollar Right In Front Of Our Eyes -Quoth the Raven

And, in the process, took a huge step toward dethroning the U.S. dollar as the global reserve currency.

At a time when the US economy has been struggling to find solid ground, it would appear it was just dealt another severe blow. China, Russia & Saudi Arabia have decided to "dethrone" the US dollar as the global reserve currency. This is a move that probably couldn't have come at a worse time.

The last 24 hours have marked another major waypoint along the path to my long-held contention that Russia, China and Saudi Arabia are going to make a massive, collective push to try and dethrone the U.S. dollar as global reserve currency.

Anybody who has read my 23 Stocks To Watch For 2023 (or any of my other recent articles discussing how I am personally positioning myself for this thesis) knows that I believe we are on the precipice of an unprecedented era geopolitically.

Put simply, I believe there is a historic divide in the making between the BRICS nations, led by Russia and China, and the West, led by the United States. READ MORE

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1.17.23 - Actual Inflation? 3x Higher than Pre-Pandemic

Gold last traded at $1,908 an ounce. Silver at $23.92 an ounce.

EDITOR'S NOTE: Inflation and our subsequent increased costs of living are not under control; in fact they are far from it. The government would like us to believe they have everything contained; however those of us who purchase food, buy fuel, heat our homes and/or use electricity know differently. The only question at this point is, how much more out of control can it get?

We Won't Be Fooled Again... Inflation Is Most Definitely Not "Under Control" -The Economic Collapse blog

Inflation is going down! Let’s all celebrate! We all knew that when the Federal Reserve began aggressively hiking interest rates it would have an impact on inflation. Higher rates have caused a new housing crash, they have crushed the tech industry, and they have sparked the biggest wave of layoffs that we have seen since the Great Recession. We have entered a significant economic downturn, so it was inevitable that the annual rate of inflation would start to moderate. But as I will explain below, that doesn’t mean that inflation is now “under control”. The real rate of inflation is much higher than we are being told, and people all over the country are being absolutely crushed by the rising cost of living.

Let’s start with the good news first. According to the Labor Department, the annual rate of inflation is rising at the slowest pace since October 2021…

    Consumer prices increased 6.5% from a year earlier, down from 7.1% in November and a 40-year high of 9.1% in June, according to the Labor Department’s consumer price index, a measurement of what people pay for goods and services, which labor released on Thursday.

    The rise last month marks the slowest annual gain since October 2021 and matches economists’ estimates.

Okay, but Fox Business has just reminded us that the annual rate of inflation “remains about three times higher than the pre-pandemic average”…

    Still, inflation remains about three times higher than the pre-pandemic average, underscoring the persistent financial burden placed on millions of U.S. households by high prices.

So we are still definitely in a high inflation environment.

But let’s dig deeper. READ MORE

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1.13.23 - Gold above $1900

Gold last traded at $1,919 an ounce. Silver at $24.28 an ounce.

EDITOR'S NOTE: Gold continued its run today. This is great news for gold owners, but not such good news for a struggling economy, the dollar and our already strained markets.

Gold rises above $1,900 per ounce after U.S. inflation data cements Fed slowdown bets -CNBC

Gold prices rose over 1%, hovering near the $1,900 per ounce pivot on Thursday after data showing signs of cooling inflation in the United States boosted bets for slower rate hikes from the Federal Reserve.

U.S. consumer prices grew 6.5% on an annual basis in December, in line with expectations, after a 7.1% rise last month. Core inflation was in line with expectations as well.

Spot gold jumped 1.1% to $1,896.30 per ounce by 2:40 p.m. ET (1940 GMT). It earlier hit $1,901.4, its highest since May.

U.S. gold futures settled up 1.1% at $1,898.8.

“Real yields easing and the dollar softening have buoyed gold, as the two key headwinds for gold through 2022 are showing signs of subsiding,” said Standard Chartered analyst Suki Cooper, adding the Fed could hike by 25 bps in February before pausing and then cutting in the second half of 2023.

The dollar dropped 0.8% to its lowest since early June, making gold more attractive for other currency holders.

Members of the Fed were quick to highlight that while the CPI numbers were moving in the right direction, they stood by their stance to bring levels back to 2%. They see rates rising “slower but longer and potentially higher.” READ MORE

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1.12.23 - Visualizing $65 Trillion In Hidden Dollar Debt

Gold last traded at $1,896 an ounce. Silver at $23.77 an ounce.

EDITOR'S NOTE: We are all aware of the mounting debt problem in the US. What many are not familiar with is the trillions of dollars in hidden debt lurking out there - debt that is being "hidden" by non US banks. If there wasn't already reason for concern; what implications might this additional debt represent?

Visualizing $65 Trillion In Hidden Dollar Debt - ZeroHedge

by Tyler Durden

The scale of hidden dollar debt around the world is huge.

As Visual Capitalist's Dorothy Neufeld details below, no less than $65 trillion in unrecorded dollar debt circulates across the global financial system in non-U.S. banks and shadow banks. To put in perspective, global GDP sits at $104 trillion.

This dollar debt is in the form of foreign-exchange swaps, which have exploded over the last decade due to years of monetary easing and ultra-low interest rates, as investors searched for higher yields. Today, unrecorded debt from these foreign-exchange swaps is worth more than double the dollar debt officially recorded on balance sheets across these institutions.

Based on analysis from the Bank of International Settlements (BIS), the above {click on image to expand} infographic charts the rise in hidden dollar debt across non-U.S. financial institutions and examines the wider implications of its growth.

Dollar Debt: A Beginners Guide

To start, we will briefly look at the role of foreign-exchange (forex) swaps in the global economy. The forex market is the largest in the world by a long stretch, with trillions traded daily.

Some of the key players that use foreign-exchange swaps are: READ MORE

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1.11.23 - What the FDIC Wants to Hide from You

Gold last traded at $1,876 an ounce. Silver at $23.42 an ounce.

US households’ debt rises to $16.5 trillion - The Hill

We now know all too well how interest rates have been rising in an attempt to curb inflationary pressures. Higher rates mean a higher cost of borrowing for households. This is very troubling as recent reports show US households are trillions of dollars in debt.

by Alejandra O'Connell-Domenech

The average U.S. household owes more than $165,000 in debt, according to a new NerdWallet study.

That amount of average household debt has pushed the national total to $16.5 trillion, a 7.65 percent increase from a year before.

Study crafters also found that the credit card balances carried from month to month have gone up over the past year, now totaling roughly $460 billion.

Mortgages, auto loans, and overall debt also went up over the past 12 months, meanwhile, student loan amounts dropped a bit, according to the study.

The average U.S. household owed about $222,000 in mortgages, $17,000 in credit card debt as well as $29,000 in auto loans last year.

“Credit card debt is often thought to be the result of frivolous spending, but for many Americans, that’s just not true,” said Sara Rathner, a NerdWallet credit cards expert. “Consumers are feeling the squeeze of higher prices and interest rates, and paychecks just aren’t keeping up. That’s forcing many to make tough decisions, like going into debt to pay for necessities.” READ MORE

Must Watch: FDIC Bankers Discuss ‘Bail-Ins’ To Deal With Impending Market Collapse -NewsWars.com

Sometimes it's difficult to discuss things like a market correction or crash. There will always be someone arguing a correction is coming and someone else arguing it is not. However, when the FDIC and bankers start plotting bail-ins and their strategy to hide this from the public, we would be well served to take note.

By Jamie White | INFOWARS.COM

Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation (FDIC) officials recently discussed how to deal with the next approaching market collapse and hide alarming data from depositors to prevent bank runs, video of a meeting shows.

The FDIC’s Systemic Resolution Advisory Committee (SRAC) held a meeting in November to discuss how the next market crash would occur and what steps would need to be taken to ensure not everybody tries pulling their money out of the financial system at the same time.

“You’ve got to think of the unintended consequences of taking a public that has more full faith and confidence in the banking system than maybe the people in this room do,” one FDIC member noted.

Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation (FDIC) officials recently discussed how to deal with the next approaching market collapse and hide alarming data from depositors to prevent bank runs, video of a meeting shows.

The FDIC’s Systemic Resolution Advisory Committee (SRAC) held a meeting in November to discuss how the next market crash would occur and what steps would need to be taken to ensure not everybody tries pulling their money out of the financial system at the same time.

“You’ve got to think of the unintended consequences of taking a public that has more full faith and confidence in the banking system than maybe the people in this room do,” one FDIC member noted.

“We want them to have the full faith and confidence in the banking system. They know FDIC insurance is there. They know what works. They put their money in, they’re going to get their money out.”

He claimed that although institutions will soon be able to figure out the dire implications of what’s being discussed at the meeting, the general public should not, because that would lead to “unintended consequences.”

“I would be careful about the unintended consequences of starting to blast too much of this out in the general public,” he said. READ MORE

The cashless future is here. So is Big Brother. - The Hill

A cashless tomorrow may be closer than we think. Where some would say it affords us the ultimate convenience, others would argue that it's at a cost of our privacy and freedom. There are strong arguments for both. Ultimately the question becomes; which is most important to you, convenience or freedom?

by Daniel de Visé

America may soon be poised to go cashless. Now, the nation must decide if ditching the dollar bill is a good idea.

Two-fifths of Americans used no cash in 2022. Back in 2015, by contrast, fewer than one-quarter of consumers went cashless, according to Pew surveys. In a separate poll, three-fifths of consumers told Gallup they used cash only on occasion last year, twice the share of five years ago.

Paper currency and coins are unsanitary, inconvenient, costly to handle and easy to steal. Criminal enterprises thrive on the portable anonymity of the hundred-dollar bill. Cashless transactions solve those problems, advocates say. They also allow Big Brother to track the American consumer’s every move.

“When you pay cash, I give you money, you give me a good, end of story,” said Jay Stanley, a senior policy analyst at the ACLU. “If you’re using your credit card for all of your transactions, then data is being collected about an enormous range of your activities, including medical conditions, political donations, sexual activities, how much liquor you buy, how many cigarettes you buy.”

In left-leaning New York, Philadelphia and San Francisco, city leaders have enacted laws that require businesses to accept cash, ostensibly to protect the “unbanked,” a small but significant share of citizens who rely on currency. READ MORE

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1.10.23 - $70 Billion In IRS Funding Rescinded

Gold last traded at $1,876 an ounce. Silver at $23.59 an ounce.

EDITOR'S NOTE: The hiring of 80,000+ additional IRS agents approved last year has been shut down; with the exception of some additional customer service and IT personnel. This is great news as this would have likely only produced more overspending on government workers as well as more headaches for American households. Details below.

House Passes Bill To Rescind Over $70 Billion In IRS Funding - ZeroHedge

Authored by Mimi Nguyen Ly via The Epoch Times

The House of Representatives voted late Monday to rescind over $70 billion to the Internal Revenue Service (IRS) in the first bill under the 118th Congress. It now goes to the Democrat-controlled Senate, where it has little chance of progress amid additional opposition from the White House.

The Family and Small Business Taxpayer Protection Act passed on party lines with a 221-210 vote.

The bill, sponsored by Rep. Adrian Smith (R-Neb.) and Rep. Michelle Steel (R-Calif.), fulfills a key campaign promise by newly-elected House Speaker Kevin McCarthy (R-Calif.) and House Republicans. McCarthy had announced in September 2022 that the first bill would be to repeal new IRS funding.

“House Republicans just voted unanimously to repeal the Democrats’ army of 87,000 IRS agents,” McCarthy said in a statement late Monday. “This was our very first act of the new Congress, because government should work for you, not against you. Promises made. Promises kept.”

The funding to the IRS was part of the 2022 Inflation Reduction Act (IRA) that Democrat President Joe Biden signed into law in August 2022. A provision in the spending packing gives nearly $80 billion in funding to the tax agency over the next 10 years.

The latest bill pushed by Republicans would leave in place funding for customer service and IT service enhancements but would rescind funding used to carry out new audits on Americans and funding to increase the size of the IRS. READ MORE

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1.9.23 - Central Banks Buy Record Amount of Gold ... again

Gold last traded at $1,871 an ounce. Silver at $23.65 an ounce.

EDITOR'S NOTE: Central Banks are once again buying gold in record amounts. This is largely due to the financial pressures surrounding currencies, economies & perceived future instabilities. In short, the same reasons we all should be diversifying our retirement and savings into metals.

Central Bank Losses Make Them Buy Record Amounts of Gold

by Daniel Lacalle

(chart courtesy of Bloomberg)

Why are global central banks adding gold to their reserves? There may be different factors.

Most central banks’ largest percentage of reserves are US dollars, which usually come in the form of US Treasury bonds. It would make sense for some of the central banks, especially China, to decide to depend less on the dollar.

China’s high foreign exchange reserves are a key source of stability for the PBOC. But the high amount of US dollars ($3.1 trillion) may have been a key stabilizing factor in 2022, but it could be too much if the next ten years bring a wave of money devaluation that has never happened before.

Central banks have been talking about the idea of issuing a digital currency, which would completely change the way money works today. READ MORE

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1.6.23 - More Good News for Gold

Gold last traded at $1,869 an ounce. Silver at $23.89 an ounce.

EDITOR'S NOTE: Ending the week on a high note, another forecast with a very promising outlook for gold. All of the gloomy data about inflation, government/corporate debt, high interest rates, declining stocks etc. is what leads these forecasters to an inevitable lift in prices. At a minimum, having gold as a hedge in the midst of all this uncertainty seems like a solid plan for anyone right now.

Why gold prices may be headed for record highs this year -MarketWatch

By Myra P. Saefong

IMF’s Georgieva expects one-third of the world economy to be in recession this year. That could bolster gold.

Gold recently climbed to its highest prices in nearly seven months, feeding expectations that the precious metal is on track to notch record highs this year, after closing out 2022 with a modest loss.

Gold “noticeably” appreciated by about $200 an ounce from November to the end of last year, and continued that trend in the first few days of January 2023, says Edmund Moy, a former director of the U.S. Mint.

Futures prices for gold GC00, 1.58% GCG23, 1.58%, based on the most-active contract, finished last year with a loss of 0.1%, but posted gains of 7.3% in November and 3.8% in December.

The relative strength of the U.S. dollar and higher interest rates had pressured gold. But since November, the dollar has weakened and the Federal Reserve’s interest-rate hikes started to moderate—prompting gold to start making its upward move, says Moy, who is also a senior IRA strategist for gold and silver dealer U.S. Money Reserve.

Whether there is a soft or hard landing for the U.S. economy this year, the global economy is shaping up to have a worse year than last year, he says, and gold “usually rises during a recession, high inflation, or economic uncertainty.” READ MORE

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1.5.23 - Kiyosaki: Gold to $3800, Silver to $75

Gold last traded at $1,835 an ounce. Silver at $23.24 an ounce

EDITOR'S NOTE: More and more forecasters are predicting very promising prices for metals in 2023. The fundamental factors that historically have driven metals prices to new highs are all in alignment. Robert Kiyosoki's predictions are what some might call meteoric. Read on to find out why he believes this is possible.

Robert Kiyosaki Predicts Gold Price Soaring to $3,800 While Silver Rises to $75 in 2023

by Kevin Helms

(image courtesy of news.bitcoin.com)

Robert Kiyosaki’s 2023 Gold and Silver Price Predictions

The author of Rich Dad Poor Dad, Robert Kiyosaki, has shared his prediction on how high he thinks the prices of gold and silver will reach in 2023.

Rich Dad Poor Dad is a 1997 book co-authored by Kiyosaki and Sharon Lechter. It has been on the New York Times Best Seller List for over six years. More than 32 million copies of the book have been sold in over 51 languages across more than 109 countries.

Kiyosaki tweeted Thurday: "I predict silver going to $75 and gold to $3,800 in 2023." READ MORE

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1.4.23 - Gold surges to 6-month high

Gold last traded at $1,854 an ounce. Silver at $23.76 an ounce

On the Cusp of a Global Liquidity Crisis - Daily Reckoning

As we kick off 2023, one of the financial topics front and center is the looming global liquidity crisis. If there were ever two words that have a bad ring to them, "liquidity crisis" would definitely top my list. Here's why a recession might look like a blessing in comparison.

By James Rickards

Is there a financial calamity worse than a severe recession in early 2023? Unfortunately, the answer is “yes” and it’s coming quickly.

That greater calamity is a global liquidity crisis. Before considering the dynamics of a global liquidity crisis, it’s critical to distinguish between a liquidity crisis and a recession. A recession is part of the business cycle.

It’s characterized by higher unemployment, declining GDP growth, inventory liquidation, business failures, reduced discretionary spending by consumers, reduced business investment, higher savings rates (for those still employed), larger loan losses, and declining asset prices in stocks and real estate.

The length and depth of a recession can vary widely. And although recessions have certain common characteristics, they also have diverse causes. Sometimes the Federal Reserve blunders in monetary policy and holds interest rates too high for too long (that seems to be happening now). READ MORE

Michael Burry: "US Is In Recession, Fed Will Cut And Will Cause Another Inflation Spike" - ZeroHedge

I believe I speak for just about everyone when I say we are ready for a break when it comes to price inflation. The headlines, social media and even these emails have been chock-full of inflationary news for quite some time now. Many are saying inflation has now peaked; but according to Michael Burry, the expected moves coming from the Fed are only going to cause inflation to spike once again.

By Tyler Durden

In the waning days of 2022, one of the most bearish (and accurate, at least as far as last year was concerned) strategists, SocGen's resident permabear Albert Edwards, laid out what he thinks will be the big surprise of 2023, which will be "a return to deflation fears as headline CPI inflation drops close to, or likely below zero. Investors are already anticipating recession and have an unusually strong preference for bonds."

Edwards' also expects that while the current recession and collapse in commodity prices will also cause headline inflation to collapse, core inflation will abate too but remain sticky around 3% due to residual wage-price inflation (justifying the inevitable change in the Fed's target).

Which, to Edwards, sets us up for the worst possible scenario: a second wave of inflation, just like we saw in the 1970s under the Burns Fed, to wit: "any decline will be purely a cyclical phenomenon rather than a full-blown return to the Ice Age theme" and as a result, "investors have not yet discounted a second secular wave of inflation as we eventually exit this unfolding recession – ie the Great Melt."

While Edwards is hardly alone in calling for a recession and a deflationary reversal of current soaring prices, following by an even more brutal inflationary wave as Powell reveals he was not Volcker by Burns all along, overnight another bearish icon repeated the exact same sequence of events. READ MORE

Gold surges to 6-month high, and analysts expect records in 2023 -CNBC

Some good news for 2023 - if you like gold - many experts are expecting a big year for the price of the yellow metal. Read on to see why the projections are so rosy.

By Elliot Smith

Gold prices have been on a general incline since the beginning of November as market turbulence, rising recession expectations and more gold purchases from central banks underpinned demand.

“In general, we are looking for a price friendly 2023 supported by recession and stock market valuation risks — an eventual peak in central bank rates combined with the prospect of a weaker dollar and inflation not returning to the expected sub-3% level by year-end — all adding support,” said Ole Hansen, head of commodity strategy at Saxo Bank.

“In addition, the de-dollarization seen by several central banks last year when a record amount of gold was bought look set to continue, thereby providing a soft floor under the market.”

Looking ahead, Hansen suggested the key events for gold prices would be Wednesday’s minutes from the latest U.S. Federal Reserve meeting and Friday’s U.S. jobs report.

“Above $1842, the 50% [mark] of the 2022 correction, gold will be looking for resistance at $1850 and $1878 next,” Hansen added. READ MORE

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1.3.23 - U.S. Inflation: How Much Have Prices Increased?

Gold last traded at $1,839 an ounce. Silver at $24.08 an ounce.

EDITOR'S NOTE: 2022's most discussed topic was inflation and the increased cost of goods. Most households are painfully aware of the toll this took on their families, despite the constant reassurances by our government that inflation was in check. This article has a great infographic on what some of those increases looked like last year. As you will see, the greatest increases are in what I consider the needs category while the biggest decreases would fall into the nonessential needs category.

U.S. Inflation: How Much Have Prices Increased?

By Avery Koop
Graphics/Design: Bhabna Banerjee

U.S. Inflation: How Much Have Prices Increased?

Inflation has been top of mind over the last year, looming over every aspect of the economy. But how has inflation actually impacted the prices of everyday goods like bread and butter or gas and public transportation?

In this visual, we showcase select items and how inflation has impacted the price year-over-year. Additionally, we’ve charted the overall price increases across the overarching goods categories, using data from the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS).

Note: These numbers are assessed using the Consumer Price Index (CPI) for all Urban Consumers (CPI-U), using the U. S. city average by detailed expenditure category.

How Much has the Cost of Goods Gone Up?

Inflation has caused the cost of many goods to increase significantly compared to last year. The most dramatically affected item is elementary school lunches, a cost in the U.S. that is already unaffordable for many families.

Here’s a look at every single reported good’s change in price from last year: READ MORE

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