Gold Standard News Daily

10.23.20 - Why Gold Wins No Matter Who is Elected

Gold last traded at $1,904 an ounce. Silver at $24.60 an ounce.

NEWS SUMMARY: Precious metal prices steadied on Friday on upbeat manufacturing data and a flat dollar. U.S. stocks traded mixed as a decline in Intel pressured the broader tech sector. Investors also weighed the potential for additional fiscal stimulus as well as news on the coronavirus treatment front.

Election scenarios: Why gold price wins either way -Golubova/Kitco
"Markets fear uncertainty and there is plenty of it on the table with the U.S. election less than two weeks away. What does it all mean for gold? Analysts say that even in the worst-case scenario, gold will see higher prices by year-end....'The Democrats on average plan to spend $5.6 trillion over the next couple of years and that ultimately means that much of that will be funded by central bank printing,' TD Securities head of global strategy Bart Melek said....A full Democratic sweep could still shock the markets....Important to highlight that a Donald Trump win is also good for gold, with analysts saying that gold will run higher under either of the candidates. 'Regardless of which presidential candidate gets in, gold will ultimately be going higher. Both candidates will be spending money, and that is bullish for gold,' said Phoenix Futures and Options LLC president Kevin Grady....'Regardless of who wins, inflation expectations are ticking up. We could see $2,000 an ounce gold by the end of this year...More generally, gold prices will stay high for an extended period of time,' said Capital Economics commodities economist James O'Rourke....The worst-case scenario would be a contested election, according to analysts, who don't rule out this possibility amid a very polarized landscape in the U.S."

USA Today Refused To Publish Hunter Biden Scandal Op-Ed, So Here It Is -Reynolds/Zero Hedge
"In my 2019 book, The Social Media Upheaval, I warned that the Big Tech companies - especially social media giants like Facebook and Twitter - had grown into powerful monopolists, who were using their power over the national conversation to not only sell ads, but also to promote a political agenda. That was pretty obvious last year, but it was even more obvious last week, when Facebook and Twitter tried to black out the New York Post's blockbuster report about emails found on a laptop abandoned by Democratic presidential candidate Joe Biden's son Hunter. The emails, some of which have been confirmed as genuine with their recipients, show substantial evidence that Hunter Biden used his position as Vice President Joe Biden's son to extract substantial payments from 'clients' in other countries. There are also photos of Hunter with a crack pipe, and engaging in various other unsavory activities. And they demolished the elder Biden's claim that he never discussed business with his son. That's a big election-year news story. Some people doubted its genuineness, and of course it's always fair to question a big election-year news story, especially one that comes out shortly before the election...Big Tech could have tried an approach that fostered such a debate. But instead of debate, they went for a blackout: Both services actually blocked links to the New York Post story. That's right: They blocked readers from discussing a major news story by a major paper, one so old that it was founded by none other than Alexander Hamilton....Now even people who didn't care so much about Hunter Biden's racket nonetheless became angry, and started talking about the story....Regardless of who wins in November, it's likely that there will be substantial efforts to rein in Big Tech....As I wrote in The Social Media Upheaval, the best solution is probably to apply antitrust law to break up these monopolies: Competing companies would police each other, and if they colluded could be prosecuted under antitrust law....Had Facebook and Twitter approached this story neutrally, as they would have a decade ago, it would probably already be old news...Their heavy handed action has brought home just how much power they wield, and how crudely they're willing to wield it. They shouldn't be surprised at the consequences."

Capitalism Always Buries Its Undertakers -Law & Liberty
"In 2017, the Museum of Capitalism opened its doors in Oakland, California...This might seem like an absurd endeavor, but the Museum of Capitalism is deadly serious, and part of the return of prognostications about capitalism's future - on the page, on the screen, and in the street - in the decade since the financial crisis....People have been talking about capitalism - and predicting its downfall - ever since the word was coined in the 19th century. And yet here we still are, toiling under so-called capitalist oppression more than 150 years later. As Francesco Boldizzoni details in Foretelling the End Of Capitalism: Intellectual Misadventures Since Karl Marx, reports of capitalism's demise have, time and again, been greatly exaggerated....According to Boldizzoni, these misadventures fall into four categories: theories of implosion, exhaustion, convergence, and cultural involution. Implosion theories are the most conventionally Marxist...A falling rate of profit would mean the capitalists must work the proletariat harder and harder, the accumulation of capital would bring with it the 'accumulation of misery.'...When Marx's prediction of a class consciousness and rebellion failed to materialize, Marxism splintered....Advocates of more benign exhaustion theories posit that capitalism will 'die of natural causes.'....Convergence theories were in vogue in the 1930s, when 'the idea that fascism, the New Deal, and Soviet interventionism were driven by some obscure force of progress to increasingly resemble one another swirled around in the heads of many, whatever their political orientation.'....According to the cultural involution camp, capitalism's weakness lies not in its internal economic tensions, as Marx argued, but in its political and cultural contradictions....Boldizzoni sees predicting capitalism's downfall as 'more often a distraction from the difficulties of the present than an activity useful in improving the human condition.'....Uncertainty over capitalism's fate undermines the historical determinism that inflects most of Foretelling the End of Capitalism. Boldizzoni's argument would be more engaging if he entertained the possibility that, rather than capitalism's future being baked in, it will be decided by a series of pivotal political decisions in the coming decades."

Printed Money and Central Planning Won't Revive a Corona-Wrecked Economy -Rep. Davidson/Real Clear Markets
"When the history of 2020 is written, COVID 19 will loom large - as a public health crisis, but especially for its effects on economic and civic life....As Americans cope with pandemic fatigue and economic uncertainty, much of the economy remains in a state of limbo. More and more Americans feel a disconnect between themselves and the policymakers they elect to represent them. Likewise, the disconnect between marketable securities on Wall Street and Main Street is growing....It is essential that we end policies that keep businesses closed and consumers fearful. However, two other factors are also prolonging economic stagnation. Flat unemployment benefits created by the CARES Act have kept many hourly workers at home instead of returning to work. Similarly, the Federal Reserve has incentivized banks to hoard cash, rather than lend it. Put plainly, Congress and the Fed are paying people and banks to maintain the broken status quo that has shackled both the labor and lending markets....This flawed structure sends a federal payment of $15 an hour (assuming a 40-hour workweek) to workers who may not have even made $15 per hour when working. Those workers also collect traditional state unemployment, pushing the total compensation over $25 per hour for not working. While cash is hitting the macro-economy, the effect on the labor market has proven disastrous....Now, House Democrats want to restart these unemployment benefits, just as we are seeing an increase in job growth. This gross distortion to the labor market can be avoided by refusing to reauthorize a program that pays people more for not working than they were making while working. An alternative approach could pay workers 67-80% of their wages earned while working, with a floor and a ceiling....It's time to rebuild the robust economy Americans enjoyed until the coronavirus brought everything to a halt. Printed money and central planning are poor substitutes for America's strong and growing market economy. Persistent attempts to substitute are dangerously growing government, distorting markets, and unduly accelerating the risk of national bankruptcy."

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10.22.20 - Digital Dollars Soon To Replace Paper Money

Gold last traded at $1,903 an ounce. Silver at $24.67 an ounce.

NEWS SUMMARY: Precious metal prices pulled back Thursday on profit-taking and a firmer dollar. U.S. stocks retreated as traders weighed the latest fiscal stimulus news along with corporate earnings and economic data.

Greenback's pain is gold and silver's gain -Wyckoff/Kitco
"Gold and silver prices are firmly up in U.S. trading Wednesday. Support at mid-week comes from a weakening U.S. dollar index that hit a six-week low today. Weaker U.S. stock indexes at midday are also aiding the precious metals markets, which are a competing asset class with equities...Gold and silver also got some buying support today when Federal Reserve Governor Brainard make some downbeat remarks on the U.S. economy, including saying the rate of jobs growth is decelerating. It appears questionable if the U.S. Congress and the Trump administration can come to agreement on a new Covid-19 stimulus package before the U.S. elections in less than two weeks. All sides are still in communication regarding getting some kind of a stimulus package for Americans, however. The U.S. Senate Republicans could stymie any deal that is agreed upon by the House and the Trump administration....Technically, December gold futures bulls have the overall near-term technical advantage and they are working on restarting a price uptrend on the daily bar chart. Bulls’ next upside price objective is to produce a close in December futures above solid resistance at the October high of $1,939.40....December silver futures bulls have the overall near-term technical advantage and are working on a price uptrend on the daily chart. Silver bulls' next upside price objective is closing prices above solid technical resistance at $27.00 an ounce."

Banks And The Digital Dollar -Zero Hedge
"Paper money is going away in the very near future. Sooner than you realize, paper money will be replaced by a 'digital-USD'. Money is already digital. Your bank and brokerage accounts are book entries in a digital database. These book entries are claims that can be exchanged for paper money or paper stock certificates. Governments, including the US government, will be mandating the exchange of all paper money for its digital 'upgrade.' Why and when will this happen?....Within 7 or 10 years, paper money will be history and not legal tender anymore. China is already testing a digital RMB, so our leading nation is well behind its competitor, and once China rolls out its digital RMB in 2023, our government will spearhead the rollout of our USD version....Americans say 'that can't happen here, we value our privacy.' That's ridiculous. If you buy with a debit or credit card, your grocery store knows when you buy broccoli and they know your brand of ice cream. If you have a smartphone, your phone company knows where you are at all times, and, yes, they sell that location data to hundreds of companies who pay for it...Try taking away free gmail, smartphones and credit cards and see the voters scream - people don't want privacy. Later this decade, once the digital dollar is in place, the government can finally implement policy more effectively....The Fed is on record saying they want inflation, and the politicians and public are addicted to the stimulus, so its print print print until we finally get sustained inflation....The next round of inflation, late in the decade or in the early 2030s, will basically wipe out all the banks. I predict the end of fractional reserve banking in its current form."

Only two other times since George Washington was president has the U.S. stock market been as far above trend as it is now -Hulbert/Marketwatch
"Here's some disturbing news for those of you who think you're basing your investment strategy on history: The U.S. stock market must fall 43% in order to be in line with the longest-possible trend in its history. This trend to which I refer traces the U.S. stock market back to 1793...The source is Edward McQuarrie, a professor emeritus at the Leavey School of Business at Santa Clara [Calif.] University who has spent years reconstructing U.S. stock market history....There have been only two other occasions when the U.S. stock market was as far above trend as it is now: the late 1960s/early 1970s and at the top of the internet bubble. We all know what happened after those two periods. The internet bubble burst, taking stocks with it, and the stock market from the bear-market of 1973-74 went nowhere on a dividend-adjusted and inflation-adjusted basis through 1985....There are many judgment calls to be made when reading the historical tea leaves. So when you hear a conclusion about stocks over the long-term based on anything less than the full 227-year timeline of the U.S. stock market, ask what the result would be if that entire history was counted."

The Elephant in the Room at Tonight's Debate -Regan/American Consequences
"Tonight, President Donald Trump and Joe Biden will go head-to-head in the final debate before the 2020 election. Microphones will be muted and flies kept at bay… But the discussion topics are clearly absent of some crucial points, including the economy and foreign policy. Instead, tonight's agenda will stick to the following: fighting COVID-19, race in America, climate change, American families, national security, and leadership. As you can imagine, the Trump camp is not thrilled about the topic selection… The president's campaign manager accused the commission of pro-Biden 'antics,' as Trump supporters argue that the REAL reason for the foreign-policy omission is an orchestrated effort to avoid the topic of foreign conflicts of interest… specifically the recent New York Post bombshell report....One thing is certain… Americans are being done a massive disservice since they will not hear from the candidates themselves on policies concerning the Middle East, China, or North Korea tonight....But most alarming for everyday Americans is the fact that Big Tech is playing favorites by censoring the recent Biden scandal… It is systematically shutting down the story itself, censoring what we can and cannot read....Why is the media shutting this down? Why are they protecting Biden? If the tables were turned, you know they’d be all over Trump."

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10.21.20 - Gold Prices Will Surge, Just Not Yet

Gold last traded at $1,924 an ounce. Silver at $25.05 an ounce.

NEWS SUMMARY: Precious metal prices rose sharply Wednesday on bullish sentiment and an eroding dollar. U.S. stocks traded mixed as House Speaker Nancy Pelosi and Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin continue their negotiations on a new fiscal stimulus package.

Gold will surge, just not yet -Krauth/Kitco
"Yes, gold is in a bull market. Yes, the all fundamental reasons for it to keep rising are still in place. Yes, gold's going to the moon. It's just not going there overnight...I'll show you why, and when it might....The US election is just two weeks away, and there's still no stimulus package. The White House is proposing $1.8 trillion, while the Democrats want $2.2 trillion. At the risk of alienating some voters, the Democrats are reticent towards doing a deal that could help Trump get re-elected. Even if a deal were to get done before the election, I don't think another round of stimulus checks would be part of it. If that comes, it will likely only come later. But more money will flow, and that's why gold will rally....The Fed's balance sheet is now seven times the size it was before the 2008 financial crisis. In the last year alone, it has gone from $3.75 trillion to $7 trillion. That's a great reason to own gold....Gold's $1,900 peak in 2011 is hardly a blip compared to gold's $800 peak in 1980. That's why I believe gold still has much, much, much higher to go before topping....Right now my sense is that gold's likely to start moving only after the election. I think the two most likely catalysts are some sort of election chaos/extended uncertainty, or the next major stimulus package. That's something we can expect no matter who's sitting in the oval office. Stay long gold, and buy the dips. Don’t worry…gold's going up."

Understanding the Left -Cochrane/The Grumpy Economist
"A new wave of government expansion is cresting. It poses a threat not just to our economic well being, but to our freedom - social, political and economic. Consider the economic agenda proposed by the Democratic presidential candidates: A government takeover of health care. Taxpayer bailout of student loans. Necessarily, after that, government funded and administered college. An immense industrial-planning and regulation effort in the name of climate. Government jobs for all. 'Basic income' transfers on top of social programs.Confiscatory wealth, income, estate and corporate taxation. Government and 'stakeholder' control of corporate boards. Rent controls and subsidies. Expanded, politically-allocated 'affordable' housing. Expanded regulation of wages, hiring and firing. Extensive speech and content regulation on the internet. And this is the center of the movement, not its fringe that talks of banning air travel. Though the fringe becomes the center quickly here....All these measures gives great power those who control the government....The ideological side of this movement marshals the social, cultural, psychological, and political force of religious fanaticism....Western civilization is just a stew of systemic racism, sexism, colonialism, homophobia, and genocide. Our economy and political system are dominated by huge monopolies and billionaires, enriching themselves by squeezing the little people dry. Swarms of unemployed roam the land. Armageddon is coming, in exactly 11 years. Climate is the world's 'greatest problem,' never mind war, pandemic, civilizational collapse or the mundane smoke and bacteria that kill thousands....To gain and signal virtue, you must master an ever-changing menagerie of nonsense words, repeated until they gain meaning. Say no longer global warming, not even climate change, now say 'climate catastrophe.' Say not poor, say 'marginalized' and 'underresourced' 'community.' Say not homeless, say 'unhoused.' Say not 'minority,' you must now say 'minoritized.' Nouns are now passive verbs, with mysterious hidden subjects. 'Violence,' 'trauma' and 'racism' are thrown out like candies, trivializing centuries of suffering....What to do? To get out of this we must reverse the winner-take-all rules of our political game....Bottom line: This isn'’t your grumpy uncle's socialism, singing Pete Seeger union songs from the 1930s. It’s new and different. What is the question to which its goals are an answer? Only one makes sense, a political will to grab, expand, and keep the power of the federal government. That political program is married to a new secular cult. That movement has already taken over most of the 'elite' institutions of our country, and disarmed the rest, who now feel guilt rather than pride of and hope for the American project. Politicians have chosen partisanship, and chosen to ally with this jihadist cult, because the expansion of government power has made our system much more winner-take-all and shove-it-down-throats of electoral minorities. Fix that, I think, and we survive. Leave it in place, and they just might win and take all. This isn't about 2020. It will be with us for decades."

Justice Department Files Google Antitrust Lawsuit -Wall Street Journal
"The Justice Department filed an antitrust lawsuit Tuesday alleging that Google engaged in anticompetitive conduct to preserve monopolies in search and search advertising that form the cornerstones of its vast conglomerate. The long-anticipated case, filed in a Washington, D.C., federal court, marks the most aggressive U.S. legal challenge to a company's dominance in the tech sector in more than two decades, with the potential to shake up Silicon Valley and beyond. Once a public darling, Google attracted considerable scrutiny over the past decade as it gained power but has avoided a true showdown with the government until now. The department alleged that Google, a unit of Alphabet Inc., is maintaining its status as gatekeeper to the internet through an unlawful web of exclusionary and interlocking business agreements that shut out competitors. The government alleged that Google uses billions of dollars collected from advertisements on its platform to pay mobile-phone manufacturers, carriers and browsers, like Apple Inc.’s Safari, to maintain Google as their preset, default search engine. The upshot is that Google has pole position in search on hundreds of millions of American devices, with little opportunity for any competitor to make inroads, the government alleged....Google owns or controls search distribution channels accounting for about 80% of search queries in the U.S., the lawsuit said. That means Google's competitors can't get a meaningful number of search queries and build a scale needed to compete, leaving consumers with less choice and less innovation, and advertisers with less competitive prices, the lawsuit alleged....A loss for Google could mean court-ordered changes to how it operates parts of its business, potentially creating new openings for rival companies....The tech sector has been a particular challenge for antitrust enforcers and the courts because the industry evolves rapidly and many products and services are offered free to consumers, who in a sense pay with the valuable personal data companies such as Google collect."

When retirement arrives sooner than expected: What to do, what to know -Wiles/AZ Republic
"Millions of Americans spend decades preparing for retirement, yet it sometimes sneaks up suddenly, when you're least expecting it....Although Americans typically assume they will retire when they want, and on their own terms, many are in for a surprise. Half of the retired respondents to an Allianz Life Insurance survey said they left work earlier than expected....Most retirees said they quit working for reasons outside their control, such as a surprise job loss or health issues. The survey of 1,000 mostly middle-class Americans was conducted in January, just before the COVID-19 pandemic led to broad layoffs. 'Many Americans are in need of a wake-up call about the very real possibility that their retirement start date might not be when they want it to be,' said Kelly LaVigne, an Allianz vice president, in a prepared statement. Here are some aspects to ponder if you suddenly are given the option, or are forced, to stop working prematurely: 1) Planning how to spend that time - While you might like the vision of unfettered free time, it can be a problem, too. Many people derive satisfaction from their jobs, along with social interaction. That could disappear with an earlier than expected departure....2) Evaluating health costs - It's easier to accept an early retirement package if you can retain some subsidized health insurance coverage from your employer, at least until Medicare kicks in at age 65....3) Fitting in part-time employment - It can be advantageous, emotionally as well as financially, to work part time after you end your official career. You will generate extra income and possibly nurture social interactions and stay sharp mentally....4) Juggling Social Security, part-time work - Part-time work also can be an issue if you have started to receive Social Security retirement benefits... $1 in Social Security benefits will be withheld for every $2 earned above $18,240....5) Getting ready to cut costs - One key consideration in mulling an early retirement decision is whether you can afford it...Cut your expenses by downsizing your home or reducing other outlays....In the Allianz survey, 6 in 10 workers voiced concern about running out of money before they die, yet most indicated they haven't been doing much about it...Early retirement can sound plenty appealing, until the realities set in."

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10.20.20 - The next economic crisis: Empty retail space

Gold last traded at $1,911 an ounce. Silver at $24.84 an ounce.

NEWS SUMMARY: Precious metal prices were higher Tuesday on safe-haven buying and a weaker dollar. U.S. stocks rose as a deadline for a new fiscal stimulus deal from Washington approached.

Gold rises on dollar dip, hopes for U.S. relief package -CNBC
"Gold rose about 1% on Monday as the dollar retreated and as expectations of a U.S. stimulus deal being reached ahead of the presidential elections in November bolstered bullion’s appeal as an inflation hedge. Gold is strengthening on the dollar's downtrend and 'the belief that some kind of stimulus package is going to come through in the next 48 hours,' said Phillip Streible, chief market strategist at Blue Line Futures in Chicago. 'People believe that we're going to go into an inflationary period into the next quarter. So they're starting up front on that.'...Gold has gained about 26% so far this year as investors sought refuge from a worsening coronavirus pandemic and also risks of inflation and currency debasement as global central banks slashed interest rates while pumping out unprecedented stimulus to contain the economic blow. Further underpinning safe-haven demand for bullion were concerns surrounding fresh coronavirus-led restrictions in Europe and elsewhere as worldwide infections crossed over 40 million, as well as uncertainty over the U.S. elections. Elsewhere, silver climbed 2.2% to $24.70, having hit a near one-week peak. Citi said in a note it expects silver to rally to $40 over the next 12 months, on sustained investor demand and a recovery in industrial consumption in 2021."

The Democratic demolition of America -Ponte/WND
"Most Americans think of 2020 as a presidential election year. But radical leftists - especially those who have hijacked and now control the Democratic Party - see this as a year of revolution for overthrowing the United States that they have been plotting for more than 100 years....The radical leftist goal in 2020 is to bring down America through a 'controlled demolition,' using precisely placed explosives to destroy key parts of our society that have kept America standing tall....Target No. 1 in this demolition will be the Senate filibuster, a 60-vote supermajority that preserves Thomas Jefferson's belief that 'great issues should never be forced on slender majorities.'....Target No. 2 will be the creation of six new seats on the Supreme Court, to be 'packed' by appointed-for-life young leftists as unelected lawmakers imposing radical ideology, not justice....Target No. 3 for demolition will be the U.S. Senate, packed with four perpetual Democrats from the new states of Puerto Rico and the District of Columbia....Target No. 4 will be all future election safeguards. A Democrat-dominated Congress will impose California-like ballot harvesting and mass mail-in ballots nationwide....Target No. 5 will be the electorate, soon to include millions of additional illegal aliens immediately given the vote. A huge class of people dependent on government checks will guarantee future Democratic election dominance. Nothing could prevent free speech or gun ownership being redefined as 'collective rights' denied to individuals; or outlawing private property; or lowering the voting age to 15 while banning senior citizen voting. An ever-poorer, weaker United States will dissolve into a Chinese Communist Party-controlled global government, which is fine with violent infantilized Biden-supporting Brownshirt mobs that chant: 'No Trump! No Wall! No USA at all!'"

The next economic crisis: Empty retail space -Politico
"Commercial real estate is in trouble, and turbulence in the $15 trillion market is threatening to bleed over into the broader financial system just as the U.S. struggles to emerge from a recession. The longer the pandemic paralyzes hotels, retailers and office buildings, the more difficult it is for property owners to meet their mortgage payments - raising the specter of widespread downgrades, defaults and eventual foreclosures....'Sometimes people forget the depth and breadth of what commercial real estate is,' said Mike Flood, senior vice president of commercial and multifamily policy at the Mortgage Bankers Association. 'What’s at risk here is both the ability for people to stay in their apartments and the ability for people to go to their jobs.' A major problem is no one knows how long the drop in commercial real estate will last. Business travel isn't expected to pick back up for at least a year, so hotels are being hammered...The loss of paying tenants could touch off a wave of property write-downs and eventual foreclosures on everything from shopping centers to apartment buildings. But it's not just a pocket of wealthy investors who will get hurt by widespread write-downs. Eighty-seven percent of public pension funds and 73 percent of private pension funds hold real estate investments....One in 5 loans bundled into commercial mortgage-backed securities are on special servicing watchlists...like a major tenant moving out."

Coronavirus Pandemic Putting Damper on Holiday Shopping Season -Wall Street Journal
"The coronavirus pandemic is creating novel hurdles for Americans' spending this holiday season, posing potential challenges for an economy that leans heavily on their willingness to consume. Households face the prospect of Halloween without trick or treaters, Thanksgiving without family travels, Black Friday without crowds, and a December without parties and in-person gift-giving. Congressional deadlock over fresh fiscal aid for the millions unemployed and a contentious presidential election campaign are also potential dampers on this year's cheer....Sucharita Kodali, a retail-industry analyst at Forrester Research Inc., expects retail spending this holiday season to be flat compared with 2019. Though she predicts online sales will grow 20% to 25%, the sharp decrease in foot traffic at bricks-and-mortar stores is expected to keep overall spending in check this November and December. Given coronavirus constraints, 'there's not going to be as much Halloween spending this year,' either, she said. This year's outlook is so unpredictable that some forecasters aren't even making predictions....Retailers are pushing an earlier start to the holiday season, both to limit crowds at stores and to ease pressure on supply chains by avoiding preholiday-order bottlenecks....In the long term, economists say, consumers can only keep spending if they are earning. This means the postholiday outlook will depend on job growth, which slowed sharply in recent months as more layoffs turned permanent. This year's muted retail expectations are being reflected in weak holiday hiring. Seasonal job postings this year are 11% below last year, job site Indeed said this month."

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