Swiss America Blog Archive

3.11.25 - 3 Reasons Why De-Dollarization Can’t Be Stopped

Gold last traded at $2,920 an ounce. Silver at $32.91 an ounce.

EDITOR'S NOTE: We've been covering BRICS quite extensively on our podcast for over 18 months now. If you haven't subscribed already, please do; as we cover breaking financial topics both domestically and abroad. You can do so by clicking on HERE https://www.swissamerica.com/podcast.php. This very topic has been a frequent discussion lately as BRICS continues their charge at all costs.

3 Reasons Why De-Dollarization Can’t Be Stopped: Should the US Be Worried? -Watcher.Guru

by Juhi Mirza

Donald Trump has vowed to end de-dollarization, a phenomenon that has repeatedly wounded the US dollar ever since the currency dynamics began to spread out. The US dollar is now surrounded by credible foes and enemies who want to establish their own supremacy by detailing the dollar’s prestige. Will the American currency be able to withstand the test of changing global dynamics? The scenario points towards a negative stance, indicating that the phenomenon of de-dollarization is indeed unstoppable.

The geopolitical narratives are now increasingly taking a new turn. With nations coming up with their dynamics, infrastructures, and orders, their need to rely on USD for further help seems to be dissipating with each passing day. At the same time, alliances like BRICS and ASEAN are now vying for an independent world order, one that does not want the US dollar to stay on top of the radar. Rising USD weaponization and the sanctions imposed by the US are two of the key reasons driving this change.

Another striking element that has recently picked up speed is the diversification of reserves that the nations have started to opt for as of late. Several nations have started to diversify their reserves into other assets, including gold, in an attempt to reduce their dependence on the US dollar. This has been done to protect independent economies from experiencing massive fluctuations that the dependence on USD usually brings in. This has also prompted nations to adopt a proactive stance, with nations mulling over moving away from the dollar for good. READ MORE

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3.10.25 - US Dollar Having the Worst Year Since 2008

Gold last traded at $2,888 an ounce. Silver at $32.11 an ounce.

EDITOR'S NOTE: On a day when the Dow is experiencing a 1000 point drop, the US dollar is in a battle of its own. It's anyone's guess what the future will hold for the dollar, for Wall Street and for the finances of individual Americans. Gold always shines in times of uncertainty, now is the time to shore up your portfolio with a hedge against the unknown.

Currency: US Dollar Having the Worst Year Since 2008 -Watcher.Guru

by Loredana Harsana

The worst year for USD continues as the U.S. dollar is right now experiencing its most significant decline since 2008. In fact, the dollar has dropped about 4.2% since January, marking the largest USD depreciation in 17 years or so. This dramatic dollar decline has intensified especially after tariffs on Canadian and Mexican goods took effect last week. Such USD market volatility is definitely raising serious questions about how these currency changes will actually affect everyday Americans in the coming months.

The worst year for USD is clearly shown in the U.S. Dollar Index falling around 4.2% between January and March, a decline that hasn’t really been seen since the 2008 financial crisis when it dropped approximately 4.8%.

Most of this dollar decline actually happened just last week as new trade policies were implemented by the administration. European currencies have definitely benefited from this situation, with the euro gaining about 4.5% against the dollar in just one week. READ MORE

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3.7.25 - Coming Soon: The European Digital Identity Wallet

Gold last traded at $2,911 an ounce. Silver at $32.55 an ounce.

EDITOR'S NOTE: The idea of a digital wallet, and all it entails, is a frightening concept. From loss of privacy and government control to stricter taxation and constant surveillance; and these concerns are just the tip of the iceberg. It appears the European Digital Identity (EUDI) Wallet is moving forward, despite the concerns of citizens and the warnings of global experts.

Coming Soon: The European Digital Identity Wallet -OffGuardian

by Kit Knightly

The elite are already running large-scale pilot schemes for the future they want and we don’t. They are not being subtle about this. They are not hiding it.

The plan is a single government-issued app that holds your medical records, employment records, travel records, education records, vaccination records, tax records, financial records as well as (potentially) copies of your signature, fingerprints, facial scans, voice samples and DNA.

All stored handily on your phone…and shared with the governments of nineteen countries (plus Ukraine) and over 140 other public and private partners. Everyone from Deutsche Bank to the Ukrainian Ministry of Digital Progress to Samsung Europe.

You will use this app to make payments, apply for loans, pay your taxes, pick up your prescriptions, cross international borders, start businesses, book doctor’s appointments, apply for jobs and even sign digital contracts online.

Businesses and government agencies would access this data from the back-end to conduct “automated background checks”.

The German Federation of Consumer Organizations (Verbraucherzentrale Bundesverband, VZBZ) has raised concerns that such an app would “pose privacy and data risks”, to which the only response is “duh, that’s what it’s for!”.

None of this a hypothetical, by the way. It’s Potential. READ MORE

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3.6.25 - FDIC: 66 Banks on 'Problem List'

Gold last traded at $2,911 an ounce. Silver at $32.64 an ounce.

EDITOR'S NOTE: There has been so much talk about tariffs lately, it seems like problem banks have all but disappeared. Unfortunately they haven't, and it may be getting worse. Unrealized losses are surging, and the banks don't appear to be in any rush to address them.

US Banks’ Unrealized Losses Explode by $118,400,000,000 in Three Months As FDIC Declares 66 Banks on ‘Problem List’ -Daily Hodl

The amount of unrealized losses on American banks’ balance sheets is surging.

In its new Quarterly Banking Profile for the fourth quarter of 2024, the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation (FDIC) says US banks reported a massive $118.4 billion increase in unrealized losses on securities, bringing the total to $482.4 billion.

The FDIC says spikes in longer-term interest rates like the 30-year mortgage and 10-year Treasury rates lowered the value of bank securities, triggering the increase in unrealized losses.

Unrealized losses are the difference between the price banks paid for securities and the current market value of those assets.

Concern over such paper losses played a major role in the collapse of Silicon Valley Bank in 2023, as depositors panicked and withdrew funds after learning the bank sold securities at a steep loss to cover liquidity needs.

Amid a 2.3% rise in banking profits, the FDIC said 66 banks are now on its “problem bank list,” a slight decrease from 68 in the prior quarter.

Problem banks receive a rating of 4 or 5 on the CAMELS rating system since, indicating that the firm is experiencing financial, operational or managerial weaknesses – or a combination of such problems.

The issues are so severe for these banks that they could threaten their soundness if unresolved. READ MORE

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3.5.25 - Gold Remains Well Supported as Central Banks Continue To Buy

Gold last traded at $2,919 an ounce. Silver at $32.67 an ounce.

BRICS: 3 Nations Invited to 2025 Summit Amid Potential Expansion -Watcher.Guru

The tariff threats don't seem to be having the desired effect of slowing down the BRICS alliance; as three more nations are expected to be in attendance at the next summit. The markets are already experiencing the tension related to these added tariffs, and it would appear there is more to come.

by Joshua Ramos

Despite the ongoing geopolitical tensions that have emerged regarding the BRICS economic alliance, three new nations have been invited to the 2025 annual summit as the bloc eyes potential expansion. Indeed, the group could look to build off of its growing numbers in what is a critical year.

US President Donald Trump has sought to challenge the group, imposing 150% tariffs for its efforts to end the US dollar. However, that doesn’t seem to have phased the collective thus far. Brazil, its 2025 chairmanship holder, has reiterated the need to settle trades in currencies outside of the greenback.

Over the last several years, the BRICS annual summit has been a key geopolitical event. Indeed, it has seen the group gather and expand their influence. In 2024, the bloc welcomed the presence of partner nations as its ongoing expansion efforts continued.

Now, it is set to face what is perhaps its most important summit yet. As tension with the US grows, BRICS has invited three new nations to its 2025 summit as it eyes even more expansion in the near future. Specifically, it could be set to expand its reach amid challenges with the West. READ MORE

Gold Remains Well Supported as Central Banks Continue To Buy -Watcher.Guru

Central banks are still at it, aggressively buying up physical gold. It is no wonder given the growing uncertainties across the globe. Gold is one of the best things to be holding when the financial dam finally breaks.

by Vinod Dsouza

Gold prices soared to a record high of 28% in 2024 after previously rising around the same value in 2010. It continued the spike in 2025 and entered the year on the front foot surging 18%. However, it faced corrections this month and dipped below the $2,900 mark. Now that Trump’s trade tariffs went live on Tuesday, the US stock market and the dollar went south in the charts. The dip is alarming as the development suggests that investors remain skeptical about trade tariffs and their fallout.

Marissa Salim, Senior Research Lead at the World Gold Council wrote in a recent note that gold prices could surge much higher. She wrote that central banks of developing countries are massively accumulating the precious metal in their reserves. This would lead to higher gold prices as the demand for the glittery metal is higher than usual.

“The sustained buying highlights the strategic importance of gold in official reserves, particularly as central banks navigate heightened geopolitical risks,” wrote Marissa. “The shift from armed conflict to broader economic tensions has reinforced their net buying trend, especially apparent since 2022.”

Marissa explained that central banks purchased more when gold prices dipped entering the accumulation phase. “Many central banks appear to have strategically leveraged temporary price pullbacks as buying opportunities, while sales have remained limited and largely tactical during price rallies,” read the note. READ MORE

"America Is Back" - 12 Takeaways From Trump 47's First Major Policy Speech To Congress -ZeroHedge

After President Trump's first policy speech to Congress, we have some much needed positive news; America is back! Here are 12 reasons to be encouraged.

by Tyler Durden

President Donald Trump capped off his first six weeks in office with a 100-minute speech to a joint session of Congress

The March 4 address followed a blitz of more than 100 executive actions that impacted nearly every aspect of government and U.S. relationships with other nations.

Americans largely approved of Trump's speech to a joint session of Congress.

Below, via Lawrence Wilson, Joseph Lord, Travis Gillmore, and Sam Dorman of The Epoch Times, are the highlights of the speech, which began with the statement “America is back” and ended with a call to “renew the unlimited promise of the American dream.” READ THE LIST

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3.4.25 - Dow falls nearly 800 points

Gold last traded at $2,915 an ounce. Silver at $31.91 an ounce.

EDITOR'S NOTE: If the Dow is any indication, Wall Street is not looking forward to a trade war via tariffs. Unfortunately for them, that war appears to be inevitable as this point; given Brazil - and other BRICS nations -are doubling down on their de-dollarization positions.

Dow falls nearly 800 points, heads for worst day since December as trade war intensifies: Live updates -CNBC

by Alex Harring

Stocks recovered a chunk of their earlier losses Tuesday, as investors tried to shake off the latest escalation in global trade tensions.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average dropped 146 points, or 0.4%, building on Monday’s plunge of nearly 650 points. The Nasdaq Composite added 1.2%, while the S&P 500 ticked 0.2%, with both boosted by gains of more than 4% in Nvidia.

Stocks were rebound significantly in afternoon trading. The Dow fell more than 840 points and the S&P 500 slid 2% at session lows. The Nasdaq had dropped more than 2% and at points flirted with correction territory, a term that refers to an index falling 10% from a recent high.

All three indexes had plunged in morning trading as investors initially responded to the U.S.′ 25% duties on Canada and Mexico that took effect at midnight. Trump also slapped an additional 10% tariff on Chinese goods.

China retaliated with additional tariffs of up to 15% on some U.S. products, while Mexican President Claudia Sheinbaum said the U.S.′ southern neighbor would respond with tariffs that would be announced this weekend. After Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau said his country would also put a 25% levy on U.S. goods, Trump said in response that he would add even higher tariffs on the country.

While the broader market was able to make up ground as the session went on, shares of companies with significant imports remained under pressure. Shares of GM and Ford dropped around 3% and 2%, respectively. Chipotle, which sources about half of its avocados from Mexico, slipped more than 2%. READ MORE

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3.3.25 - Why gold prices could hit $3,000 despite volatility

Gold last traded at $2,883 an ounce. Silver at $31.53 an ounce.

EDITOR'S NOTE: Gold at $3,000 an ounce? This price has been predicted by several market experts. In fact, many believe $3,000 is just a pit stop on the way to greater heights. This is all great news for those who own gold.

Why gold prices could hit $3,000 despite volatility -Fox Business

by Suzanne O'Halloran

Gold prices likely won’t lose their shine, even after a 40%-plus run over the last 12 months.

The SPDR Gold shares, or GLD, the largest exchange-traded fund backed by physical gold, saw the largest one-day inflow ever of $1.9 billion on Feb. 21, 2024.

"We believe the demand is across the board. We see institutions either adding to or establishing long term strategic asset allocation type positions. We see individual investors doing the same. We see a certain amount of FOMO. There's a fear of missing out whenever the price gains momentum to the upside" George Milling-Stanley, Chief Gold Strategist at State Street Global Advisors, told FOX Business.

He highlights three longer-term growth drivers aligning for more gold gains this year.

"We have continued very strong central bank buying for official reserves. This has been a feature of the last 15 years at the gold market, and it's been very important, ranging anywhere from 10% to 25% of total end-user demand in any given year. And I think that's very important support for the price whenever it's shown any sign of weakening", Milling-Stanley explained. "Central bank buying basically doubled in 2022 to more than 1000 metric tons," he added.

"Additionally, we've seen a big increase in investment in the emerging markets and especially China, but in India and elsewhere over the last year, year and a half, toward the end of last year, that was joined by a big increase in emerging market jewelry demand as well, again, across the emerging markets" he added. "We've seen a revival in investment in gold in the Western world, in Western Europe and North America, I think mostly because of concerns about the outlook for the US economy and for the European economies, for that matter." VIEW CHARTS AND READ MORE

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2.28.25 - BRICS Confirms Development of New Payment Systems

Gold last traded at $2,848 an ounce. Silver at $31.10 an ounce.

EDITOR'S NOTE: Not only is BRICS still going strong, the bloc is moving at a record pace to establish their own economy. The tariff threats seem to be falling on deaf ears as member nations focus on strengthening their own currencies and economies, instead of the consequences of tariffs.

BRICS Confirms Development of New Payment Systems in 2025 -Watcher.Guru

by Vinod Dsouza

Brazil, which chairs the upcoming BRICS summit in 2025 confirmed that they plan on the formation of new payment systems. Under the leadership of Brazilian President Luiz Lula da Silva, the alliance will discuss alternative payment options to the US dollar. The BRICS Sherpas meeting will take the ideas forward and the upcoming 17th summit could see massive changes in the way the bloc operates and settles cross-border transactions.

The move could lead to a paradigm shift in global trade and tilt the financial powers from the West to the East. Developing countries are looking to cut ties with the US dollar and strengthen their local currencies in the forex markets. The US dollar is in the crosshairs of a major shift that could pave the way for native currencies to take the driver’s seat of the financial markets.

Brazil’s President Luiz Lula da Silva made a strong statement saying that BRICS will continue advancing the de-dollarization agenda. The President also added that under their leadership, BRICS will work towards developing new payment systems as an alternative to the US dollar.

“Brazil is going during the period of its presidency to fully develop transparent and safe payment systems,” he said. The bloc will work towards launching safe payment systems to uplift their GDP and strengthen their native economies. The move will give a boost in the arm to their local currencies making businesses thrive.

The next BRICS summit is scheduled to be held in Brazil’s Rio De Janeiro on July 6th and 7th. All the nine member countries will meet at the summit and discuss policies and sign new trade deals. Details on the new payment systems could be revealed at the 17th summit in July this year. READ MORE

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2.27.25 - FDIC Ends Disclosing Total Assets of Banks on “Problem Bank List”

Gold last traded at $2,876 an ounce. Silver at $31.23 an ounce.

EDITOR'S NOTE: In the era of better transparency, the Federal Reserve is looking to obscure instead. As Mr. Richter points out, "forced disclosures of sins, and fears of the consequences of these disclosures, are part of what is supposed to keep banks from doing stupid things." It's hard to imagine bank CEOs will make wiser choices, if there is no longer a fear of public ramifications.

FDIC Ends Disclosing Total Assets of Banks on “Problem Bank List,” as Disclosure Might Suddenly Trigger a “Disorderly Run”-Wolf Street

by Wolf Richter

Acting Chairman of the FDIC Board of Directors, Travis Hill, who was sworn in as FDIC Vice Chairman on January 5, released a statement today, along with the materials of the quarterly report by the FDIC on the FDIC-insured banks, that the FDIC would no longer disclose as of today the total assets on its “Problem Bank List.”

The list had previously shown total assets and the total number of banks on the Problem Bank List. As of today, it only shows total number of banks on the Problem Bank List, forget the assets.

This sudden end of the disclosure is a problem because a jump in assets on the list used to indicate that a bigger bank had gotten on the list, something we’d need to start paying attention to, and now we don’t know if a bigger bank has gotten on the list. We just see the total number – 66 banks in Q4 2024, according to the FDIC today. This is what the FDIC’s chart used to look like through Q3 2024.

In the chart above, by jump in the gold columns in Q4 2021, we could tell that a bigger bank had gotten on the Problem Bank List as assets of Problem Banks spiked. Then, in 2022 SVB went to hell for all to see and finally imploded in Q1 2023, followed by ultimately two other banks. We didn’t know which banks had gotten on the list, but we knew something was going on with one or more bigger banks. And people guessed rightly or wrongly. Now we won’t see that anymore.

And this is what the FDIC’s Problem Bank List chart looks like today. Q4 2024 is the first time since 1990 that total assets of Problem Banks are not disclosed. The gold columns now represent the number of banks (which used be indicated by the black line), and the total assets data (used to be the gold columns) has vanished: VIEW CHARTS AND READ MORE

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2.26.25 - Sticky Inflation Means Gold Will Keep Rising

Gold last traded at $2,915 an ounce. Silver at $31.81 an ounce.

Gold Investment Return: What’s Your $10,000 Worth After 20 Years? -Watcher.Guru

Gold has always been seen as a safe haven, but now it is finally getting the attention it deserves as a solid investment. The fundamentals that have promoted this consistent growth are continuing to push the yellow metal to new heights.

by Vladimir Popescu

Gold investment return has catalyzed significant attention across various major financial sectors. This is particularly true as investors seek shelter from market volatility. Some precious metal analysts point to its historical performance. They see it as a compelling case for those considering long-term investment returns in their portfolio diversification strategy.

Gold price growth has revolutionized numerous significant investment portfolios over the past two decades. Through several key performance periods ending in 2024, gold posted a 20-year average annual return of 9.47%. This remarkable performance means a $10,000 investment made 20 years ago would have grown to approximately $65,967 today. This represents a total gain of roughly 560%.

The substantial gold investment returns were achieved despite periods of significant market volatility. This highlights gold’s reputation as a stable investment during economic uncertainty. READ MORE

Sticky Inflation Means Gold Will Keep Rising -Daily Reckoning

It would appear that price inflation is here to stay, and now is the time to protect your money. If you haven't contacted Swiss America to learn more diversifying your portfolio, please do so. It could make all the difference to your investment success in 2025. Call or text 800-289-2646, or visit us online at swissamerica.com.

by Byron King

{Source: Daily Reckoning}

Don’t you wish you had some of these? This is a $20 gold coin from 1914, the first year of the Federal Reserve. And back then, just over 110 years ago, gold was $20 per ounce.

Today’s gold price is over $2,900, which means that the purchasing power of a dollar over the past century-plus has shrunk by a factor of 145x. In other words, a single dollar back in 1914 is the equivalent of $145 today. This is why people and institutions (certainly central banks) are buying gold. And it’s why gold deserves a place in every portfolio.

Let’s dig into what’s happening with gold, what it means, and how to deal with it. READ MORE

Currency: 3 Reasons Why The US Dollar May Go Down Under Trump’s Rule -Watcher.Guru

Trump may not be able to save the dollar, and that's no fault of his own. The deck seems to be pretty heavily stacked against him, as he continues to navigate the US's financial ship through a sea full of icebergs.

by Juhi Mirza

The 47th US President, Donald Trump, is busy forging new policies, starting with his infamous tariff policy imposition on nations to bolster the US economy. Trump’s intention is clear, stating how he wants to strengthen US productivity levels by boosting the narrative of manufacturing in the US. While his narrative is largely appreciated, his idea of imposing tariffs on nations is also gaining widespread criticism, with analysts mulling over how his aggressive tariff regime may end up backfiring, impacting the US dollar in the process.

One of the most obvious reasons that may end up derailing the US dollar is Trump’s tariff policies on various nations. Trump has earlier halted tariffs on Mexico and Canada but has now decided to levy a 25% tariff on imports from both nations, sparking widespread criticism.

At the same time, Trump has also imposed a 10% tariff on imports from China, which again sparked a heavy debate on Trump’s administrative stance. If this tariff war continues, it could eventually end up sparking a global trade war, with nations contemplating retaliating tariff stances. This could end up impacting the US dollar the most, pushing the currency to hit a new low. READ MORE

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2.25.25 - China and India Dump US Bonds for Gold

Gold last traded at $2,915 an ounce. Silver at $31.76 an ounce.

EDITOR'S NOTE: It seems like the de-dollarization train continues to chug along, despite President Trump's assurances of severe tariffs to those nations who do not comply. The latest challenge, China and India are dropping US bonds for gold.

De-Dollarization: 2 Leading Economies Have Dumped US Treasury Bonds For Gold -Watcher.Guru

by Juhi Mirza

The de-dollarization narrative is yet to die down completely. With Donald Trump busy deploying aggressive tariffs on nations, the retaliatory forces have become quite active, mulling over launching counter-tariffs on the US. At the same time, 2 leading economies have decided to ditch the US treasury bonds, ending their reliance on the US dollar to bag gold in an attempt to stabilize their economic strata. Will this phenomenon derail the US economic anatomy and usher in de-dollarization? Let’s find out.

India and China, the two global superpowers, have decided to depend on gold and have decided to move away from US Treasury bonds. Per a recent post uploaded by the Kobeissi Letter, India and China have lately been diversifying their holdings, moving away from the dollar in all ways. This includes a pattern in which both nations have dumped US Treasury bonds and are consistently accumulating gold at a rapid pace. This move is sparking de-dollarization fears, mounting further pressure.

Per KL, India has tripled its gold reserves in the last ten years. The post outlined how India’s gold reserves are currently valued at $70.9 billion. On the other hand, China is also aggressively pivoting towards gold, with its reserves amounting to $73.5 billion over the last 10 years.

“Gold demand in Asia has never been stronger: China’s gold reserves hit a record $73.5 billion last month. India’s gold reserves reached $70.9 billion, also an all-time high. Over the last 10 years, India’s reserves have more than tripled while China’s reserves have more than doubled. Both China and India have been diversifying out of US Treasury bonds and reducing dependence on the US Dollar. Meanwhile, global gold demand jumped 24% year-over-year in 2024 to a record $382 billion. Gold is the global hedge.” READ MORE

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2.24.25 - Repricing US reserves would be bullish for gold

Gold last traded at $2,949 an ounce. Silver at $32.37 an ounce.

EDITOR'S NOTE: It only took gold performing - as one of the best asset classes for several years in a row - for Wall Street to start believing it is not a "barbaric relic" after all. Gold has reached several new highs in 2025 already, and it doesn't appear prices will be losing steam any time soon.

Repricing US gold reserves would be bullish for the market, signaling the precious metal is not a ‘barbarous relic,’ analyst says -Fortune

by Jason Ma

Much attention has been focused on U.S. gold reserves in recent days, especially the stockpile in Fort Knox. While Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent dismissed the possibility of revaluing the stash of gold to market levels, an analyst said that would be bullish for prices, which have already been on a tear.

Revaluing U.S. gold reserves to match current market conditions would add more momentum to prices as it would signal the precious metal isn't an anachronistic asset, according to a Wall Street analyst.

In an interview on Bloomberg TV on Friday, Francisco Blanch, head of commodities and derivatives research at Bank of America Securities, acknowledged that repricing the gold would be an accounting exercise but still result in an increase in the Federal Reserve's balance sheet.

"I think it would probably be bullish for the gold market because it would show that gold is no longer this barbarous relic that has been sitting in central banks and been dismissed a little bit, but now even the biggest central bank of them all is taking a renewed interest in gold," he said.

The Fed doesn't own gold anymore after transferring it to the Treasury Department under the Gold Reserve Act of 1934. In exchange, the Fed received gold certificates.

The U.S. owns 261.6 million troy ounces of gold, valued at a 1970s-era rate of $42.22 an ounce, producing a book value of $11 billion. At gold’s current spot price of about $2,950 per ounce, however, the value would top $750 billion. READ MORE

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2.20.25 - Trump’s Tariff Threats and the Dollar

Gold last traded at $2,937 an ounce. Silver at $32.91 an ounce.

EDITOR'S NOTE: As Trump continues to battle the issues plaguing our economy, he also continues to fire off threats of higher tariffs. He is doing so in the hopes of saving the dollar. The problem, however, is it appears to be encouraging exactly what he's trying to avoid; de-dollarization.

Trump’s Constant Tariff Threats May Usher In Rapid De-Dollarization -Watcher.Guru

by Juhi Mirza

Donald Trump, the 47th president of the United States, has once again struck the world with a new warning. Trump, in a news conference in Miami, reiterated his call to impose taxes on other sectors, triggering market mayhem in the process. While the world is scrutinizing Trump’s tariff calls, investors can’t help but speculate whether the move will trigger the process of de-dollarization or lessen it in reality.

Donald Trump has once again unveiled plans to impose new tariffs on multiple commercial realms. In a conference in Miami, Florida, Trump shared how he plans to impose more tariffs on new sectors, possibly the realms of semiconductors, cars, lumber, and pharmaceuticals.

Speaking more on the matter, Trump shared how such impositions may come as early as next month. He later shared how they may impose nearly 25% tariffs on lumber and forest products.

“I’m going to be announcing tariffs on cars and semiconductors and chips and pharmaceuticals, drugs and pharmaceuticals, and lumber, probably, and some other things over the next month or sooner.”

The constant tariff threats have triggered worldly market volatility in the process, with nations expressing their criticism over America’s hard tariff stance. Trump has been fiercely imposing taxes on multiple imported goods, belonging to nations like Canada and Mexico, and has recently announced fresh tariffs on India as well. READ MORE

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2.19.25 - Goldman and UBS predict more gold gains

Gold last traded at $2,933 an ounce. Silver at $32.74 an ounce.

‘Currency Wars’ Predictions Come True -Daily Reckoning

As more uncertainty floods the market, more investors and nations are flocking to gold - since it acts as a portfolio hedge against a host of economic scenarios. Globally, many have lost trust in the dollar and are seeking out tangible alternatives. Those chickens are coming home to roost.

by Dan Amoss

Jim Rickards’ best-selling 2011 book, Currency Wars, was prophetic.

He painted a stark picture of the flaws in the modern paper monetary system, warning that “a new crisis of confidence in the dollar is on its way.”

Although the U.S. dollar has been strong against most other paper currencies for years, it has weakened dramatically against gold.

Most people think of gold as a derivative of the U.S. dollar. That’s the blue line below.

Inverting the relationship is another way to think about gold. As shown in the red line, the dollar has lost 62% of its value against gold since 2015.

Reframing your perspective on the U.S. dollar as a derivative of gold, a timeless money, can be enlightening.

Let’s revisit currency wars 15 years after Jim popularized the term. Currency wars are no longer a theoretical discussion amid President Trump’s efforts to strike fairer trade deals. READ MORE AND VIEW CHARTS

Goldman predicts more gold price gains as Trump tariff fears swirl -Yahoo! Finance

As of today, gold is well on its way to the $3000/oz mark, with no end in sight. Multiple financial firms are revising their forecast higher as well. Gold may seem expensive at the moment, but it will look like a steal if the yellow metals stays on its current trajectory.

by Brian Sozzi

Gold's glittering run in 2025 may have more room to rise higher, Goldman Sachs believes.

On Tuesday, the investment bank lifted its year-end price target for gold to $3,100 an ounce, from $2,890 previously. Goldman said "structurally higher" central bank demand will add 9% to the price of gold by the end of the year, also helped by a slight boost from ETF holdings.

But Goldman added that concerns about President Trump's tariffs could be an "upside" risk to gold prices.

"However, if policy uncertainty — including tariff fears — stays high, higher speculative positioning for longer could push gold prices as high as $3,300 an ounce by year-end," Goldman strategist Lina Thomas wrote in a note to clients.

In a gold note of its own today, UBS said it could see a path for gold hitting $3,200 an ounce. READ MORE

Trump Warns 25% Tariffs On Cars, Drugs And Chips Coming In April -Zero Hedge

While many believe Trump's tariff talk is merely bravado, others have taken steps to offset the stressors they will face if supply chains and trade flows are disrupted overnight.

by Tyler Durden

With Wall Street growing more confident by the day that Trump's tariffs are nothing but hot air, and pushing stocks to new record highs, today after the close President Donald Trump tried to reassure the market that tariffs are indeed coming and said he would likely impose tariffs on auto, semiconductor and pharmaceutical imports of around 25%, with an announcement coming as soon as April 2.

The new duties, if implemented, would widen the president’s trade war. Trump previously announced 25% tariffs on steel and aluminum that are set to take effect in March, but Tuesday’s comments are his most detailed yet in specifying other sectors that would be hit with fresh barriers.

“I probably will tell you that on April 2, but it’ll be in the neighborhood of 25%,” Trump told reporters at his Mar-a-Lago club when asked about his plan for auto tariffs.

Asked about similar levies on pharmaceutical drugs and semiconductor chips, the president said: “It’ll be 25% and higher, and it’ll go very substantially higher over a course of a year.” Trump added that he wanted to give companies “time to come in” before announcing new import taxes.

“When they come into the United States and they have their plant or factory here there is no tariff, so we want to give them a little bit of a chance,” he said.

As noted last week, Trump also threatened other streams of tariffs, all part of an effort to rebalance the US’s trading relationships across the globe. The president has long accused other countries of ripping off the US and views import duties as a way to bring industries back to America and collect more revenue. Many economists say they would raise consumer prices for Americans and stymie the fight against inflation.

The president has said he would apply “reciprocal” levies on a country-by-country basis as soon as April, though specifics are still being determined. He has also threatened duties on some of the US’s biggest trading partners, such as a 10% rate already applied to China and 25% tariffs on Canada and Mexico that have been deferred until at least March 4. The measures would stack on top of one another, meaning that Mexican and Canadian producers in certain sectors could pay as many as three tariffs. READ MORE

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2.18.25 - D.O.G.E. Set to Investigate Fort Knox’s $425B Gold Reserve

Gold last traded at $2,934 an ounce. Silver at $32.88 an ounce.

EDITOR'S NOTE: Many of us in the metals industry have long been doubtful that Fort Knox still contains the full gold reserve. Many believe it's possible there is just a fraction in reserve, and perhaps, none at all. If Elon Musk and D.O.G.E. have anything to say about it, they are going to find out for sure. Stay tuned.

Elon Musk’s D.O.G.E. Set to Investigate Fort Knox’s $425B Gold Reserve -Watcher.Guru

by Vladimir Popescu

A groundbreaking D.O.G.E. investigation has catalyzed some more intense debate across multiple financial sectors after Elon Musk brought to the surface questions about the Fort Knox’s $425 billion gold stockpile verification process. The Department of Government Efficiency (D.O.G.E.) has engineered a comprehensive review to verify whether Fort Knox actually maintains its reported 4,580 tons of gold, revolutionizing traditional Treasury oversight.

The D.O.G.E. investigation has leveraged significant political momentum, with several key lawmakers spearheading support initiatives.

This pivotal D.O.G.E investigation comes after Senator Lummis created the groundbreaking Bitcoin Act, which aims at creating a strategic reserve formed out of 1 million Bitcoins, which would be optimizing a whopping amount of 5% of the total BTC supply. The initiative deploys secure Bitcoin vaults operated through some sophisticated Treasury protocols. This would be leveraging the existing Federal Reserve and Treasury resources. VIEW TWEETS AND READ MORE

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2.14.25 - JPMorgan flying billions worth of gold on planes

Gold last traded at $2,880 an ounce. Silver at $32.29 an ounce.

EDITOR'S NOTE: We have all seen an old oater with gold being transported by horse or rail across the country. In almost all of them, those transporting the gold ran into bandits along the way. In today's economy, what would something like that look like? Probably exactly like what JP Morgan and others are currently doing. Rather than horses and trains, they are using jets. The bandits of today? Tariffs.

JPMorgan and other big banks are flying billions of dollars worth of gold on planes. Here's why -Quartz

by Bruce Gil

U.S. President Donald Trump’s tariffs are already having unintended and somewhat strange economic repercussions. For example, they have led to big banks transporting billions of dollars of gold via commercial planes from London to New York City.

The price of gold, which investors tend to buy during times of heightened risk, has been on the rise. Gold futures, contracts for the future delivery of gold at a set price, that trade in New York’s Commodity Exchange (Comex (CME-0.95%)) have risen 11% this year and closed at $2,909 a troy ounce on Wednesday. The Wall Street Journal reports that some analysts project that future contracts could soon reach $3,000 for the first time.

However, following Trump’s election and his threat to impose tariffs on Europe, the price of physical gold in London has been trading about $20 lower since early December.

Normally, prices in these two markets move in sync because traders can ship gold between them whenever there is a price gap. Banks play a big role in these markets by holding gold bars in London, lending them out to earn returns, and protecting themselves from potential price drops by selling futures contracts in New York. JPMorgan (JPM+0.48%) and HSBC (HSBC-0.14%) are key players, as they handle gold transactions and store gold for other banks in London.

However, banks that had sold gold futures are now facing losses, as U.S. prices surged above those in London. READ MORE

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2.13.25 - Gold Price Soars Above $2,900

Gold last traded at $2,926 an ounce. Silver at $32.31 an ounce.

EDITOR'S NOTE: As we've written about in prior newsletters, many market experts were forecasting a $3000/oz mark for gold by year's end. We are barely half way through February and we are almost there.

Gold Price Soars Above $2,900, Eyes $3,000 Milestone By February End -Watcher.Guru

by Juhi Mirza

In a historic new feat, gold has crossed an ambitious price pedestal of $2,900, marking another high within the predicted timelines. The precious yellow metal is now inching closer to hitting another historic all-time high of $3,000. Will the metal be able to claim this spot by the end of February 2025?

Gold, otherwise touted as “the” solid hedge option for investors, has successfully crossed a high price mark of $2,900. The precious yellow metal is already eyeing its next target of $3,000, which the metal may breach by the end of this month if the market forces allow the metal to thrive and prosper on the go. The US economic demographics have had a key role in bolstering gold’s price hike to $2,900. For instance, uncertainty around global trade wars with Trump imposing tariffs on nations was one of the key reasons for gold spiking to a high price.

Donald Trump is still vying for a local narrative, which includes bolstering the US economy and keeping it prioritized on all fronts. This development may compel the US president to issue tariffs on nations, with an intent to bolster productivity in the US manufacturing domain. While the idea holistically supports the US economy, it may put the US dollar in jeopardy, sparking aggressive trade war fears. This situation may prove lucrative for assets like gold that have often been noted to thrive in a crisis, with investors sentiment shifting towards the precious yellow metal to help stabilize and safeguard their assets.

Per a notable finance expert, Rashad Hajiyev, gold has crossed the $2,900 mark, delivering a slingshot after undergoing slight consolidation.

“Gold formed a nice slingshot all th way until $2,863 and is now back above $2,900. Looking good, and after further consolidation, I expect another all-time high. But at this point I would like gold to pause a bit, allowing silver to do some work…” READ MORE

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2.12.25 - Chinese Banks Run Out of Gold

Gold last traded at $2,901 an ounce. Silver at $32.23 an ounce.

US Inflation Rises to 3% in January 2025 -Watcher.Guru

If inflation - true inflation - were only 3%, everyone would be quite pleased. I suppose we should be encouraged that there is some acknowledgment of rising inflation; instead of the rhetoric promising temporary and mitigated inflation over the past few years.

by Joshua Ramos

In what is a concerning development for Americans, US inflation has officially risen to 3% for January 2025. Indeed, the data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics Consumer Price Index (CPI) has arrived above what many analysts had expected. Moreover, it is up slightly from December’s 2.9% inflation rate.

The monthly figures are important as the Federal Reserve continues to develop its plan forward with regard to interest rate cuts. Just this week, Fed Chair Jerome Powell discussed the next potential cuts. Specifically, he noted that the country didn’t “need to be in a hurry.” Conversely, January’s inflation is the highest record mark since June 2024.

Over the last several weeks, the US economy has been confronted with what could be a concerning start to the incoming Trump administration. He has enacted several tariffs on a host of countries, extending beyond just the BRICS nations. With a global trade war brewing, all eyes are on the state of inflation to start the year.

The data is in, showing that US inflation jumped to 3% in January 2025. The increase continues a trend and has seen the cost of living for Americans reach its highest level since June of last year. Moreover, the figure exceeded what many had projected. READ MORE

Chinese Banks Run Out of Gold as Soaring Prices Spark Buying Frenzy -YiCai Global

Gold purchasing in China - by its banks, citizens and government -has reached a fever pitch; so much so it would appear they are running out. This is the reason to hold gold, it is a real asset with a limited supply; which is where it derives its true value.

by Chen Junjun

(Yicai) Feb. 12 -- Several Chinese banks have sold out their gold products after surging prices of the safe-haven asset fueled investors’ enthusiasm.

On the app of Industrial and Commercial Bank of China, Ruyi Gold bars of 5 grams, 20 g, 50 g, 100 g, and 200 g are out of stock, with only the 10 g option showing limited availability.

The gold spot price at the London Stock Exchange rose over 1 percent to an all-time record of USD2,942.71 per ounce yesterday, marking the eighth time this year that the price of the precious metal hit a new record.

The 10 g and 20 g Chuan Shi Zhi Bao gold bars of Agricultural Bank of China are sold out on the lender’s app, and the 100 g and 200 g ones are on a tight inventory. Meanwhile, the China Construction Bank app shows that only the 50 g and 100 g investment gold bars are available, priced at CNY688.80 (USD94.23) per gram.

Gold bars on the apps of Postal Savings Bank of China and Bank of China are in the preorder status.

A China Gold store in Shanghai told Yicai that it sold out the 100 g gold bars before the Chinese New Year holiday started at the end of last month, with only smaller bars available for sale at the moment.

“Even though gold prices may continue to rise in the short term, the related risks are also likely to gradually accumulate,” said Wu San, a researcher at the Bank of China Research Institute. “Investors need to consider different strategies, such as portfolio diversification, to effectively mitigate risks based on their individual situation.” READ MORE

De-Dollarization: Two Economic Giants Ditch the Dollar in 90% of Transactions -Watcher.Guru

Tariffs or not, Russia and India are operating from their own playbook; despite the financial threats from the Trump administration. This seems to be the party line for all BRICS-participating nations, as the alliance continues to build economic momentum.

by Vladimir Popescu

The De-dollarization process is reshaping international trade as Russia and India strengthen their financial partnership, with 90% of direct transactions now conducted in national currencies. This strategic shift marks an important change in the dynamics of the global economic stage, particularly affecting trade relationships between major economies. The Russia economy and India economy demonstrate how national currencies can replace traditional dollar-based trading systems.

Bilateral trade between Russia and India has shown remarkable growth in their de-dollarization efforts. Russian Ambassador to India Denis Alipov stated:

“Mutual payments in national currencies are stable. As of today, national currencies account for around 90% of direct payments between Russia and India.”

Trade statistics reflect this growth, with bilateral exchange reaching $64.5 billion in the first 11 months of 2024. The Russia economy saw exports to India reach $60 billion, marking a 7.7% increase, while the India economy experienced a 23.3% growth in exports to Russia, reaching $4.5 billion. READ MORE

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2.11.25 - Become More Independent Of The System

Gold last traded at $2,898 an ounce. Silver at $31.82 an ounce.

EDITOR'S NOTE: It is no surprise that one of the items on this list is, Protect Your Assets With Gold And Silver. Right now it is easy to get caught up in the excitement of gold's run; but this is a great reminder that the security of gold has been valued for millennia. There is a reason central banks around the globe never stop buying gold. Now is the time to buy gold for yourself, both for inflation protection as well as profit potential.

12 Simple Things That You Can Start Doing Right Now To Become More Independent Of The System -ZeroHedge

Authored by Michael Snyder via TheMostImportantNews.com

The more dependent you are, the less free you are. A couple of weeks ago, I wrote an article about how our system is designed to beat us down and make us weak and dependent, because when we are weak and dependent we are easier to control. Most of us don’t even realize why the majority of the population is so sick, exhausted, depressed and confused much of the time. Our bodies, our minds and our spirits are constantly being poisoned by the system, and those that are in control of the system know exactly what they are doing. If you do not choose to break free, you could end up under the oppression of their system for your entire life.

Of course for many people inertia seems like the easiest option. It is just so easy to keep doing what you have always done, and that is especially true once you get older.

But what are you going to do once the system that you have become so dependent upon starts to crumble all around you?

Over the past several years, our world has been getting increasingly unstable. Major wars have erupted, the cost of living has become very painful, pestilences have been raging all over the globe, and historic natural disasters have been hitting us one after another.

The chaos that we are experiencing now is just going to intensify in the months ahead.

So what will most people do when the system that they depend on for their survival is shaken to the core?

The following are 12 simple things that you can start doing right now to become more independent of the system… READ MORE

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2.10.25 - Gold sets 11 record highs in early 2025

Gold last traded at $2,905 an ounce. Silver at $32.04 an ounce.

EDITOR'S NOTE: 2025 has just begun and gold is on track to break through the $3,000 an ounce price point many analysts weren't expecting to see until year end! The $4,000 an ounce predictions are now gaining credibility by the day. Here's a look into what's causing these increases.

Gold sets 11 record highs in early 2025 surge, rises nearly 11% – What’s driving the rally? -Mint

by A Ksheerasagar

Gold price today: The price of gold has been breaking record after record this year, continuing its unwavering rally from the previous calendar year without any significant pullbacks. The yellow metal, which is seen as the safest investment, has been drawing support from all market participants, including investment firms, central banks, and retail investors, leading it to see one of the best record rallies after the COVID-19 pandemic.

In just under two months of the current calendar year, spot gold prices have already hit 11 record highs, with the latest peak reaching $2,906 per troy in today's session, bringing year-to-date (YTD) gains to 10.52%. In the domestic market, gold prices surged past ₹85,000 per 10 grams, setting a new record at ₹85,880 per 10 grams—an increase of nearly 11.70% in 2025.

The unstoppable run in gold prices is indicating that investors and consumers are shifting their wealth away from risky assets, such as stocks, to gold, which is considered a safe-haven asset.

Also, major central banks worldwide, especially in Asia, are continuing to diversify their foreign exchange reserves away from the U.S. dollar. China has been at the forefront of this effort, reducing its holdings of U.S. Treasuries to purchase substantial amounts of gold instead.

For centuries, gold has earned a reputation as a reliable safe-haven asset, with its inherent ability to retain or even appreciate in value making it an attractive option for investors seeking stability amid market volatility. Consequently, investors often turn to gold as a reliable investment during periods of uncertainty. READ MORE

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2.7.25 - Citi Predicts $3k Gold

Gold last traded at $2,861 an ounce. Silver at $31.86 an ounce.

EDITOR'S NOTE: The time to buy gold is now, even as prices climb. According to Citi analysts, "gold prices could reach $3,000 during the start of Q2 2025." As more investors, and central banks alike, gobble up gold; its future continues to shine brightly.

Citi Predicts Gold Prices Could Hit $3,000 in 3 Months -Watcher.Guru

by Vinod Dsouza

Gold prices are experiencing a bullish divergence as its price has reached $2,861 on Friday’s opening bell. It has surged by more than five points in the day trade with an uptick of 0.18%. The XAU/USD index is now looking to breach the $3,000 mark and usher into a new territory of optimism. The yellow metal remains bullish in 2025 and has continued the positive momentum of 2024. Leading investment bank Citi published a recent prediction forecasting that gold prices could reach $3,000 in the next three months.

Commodity analysts from Citi predict that gold prices are all set to touch the $3,000 mark in the next three months. The geopolitical tensions raised by Trump through tariffs will make institutional investors seek a safe haven in gold, wrote the report. The development will only help the XAU/USD index which could soon experience an uptick in the indices.

“The gold bull market looks set to continue under Trump 2.0 with trade wars and geopolitical tensions reinforcing the reserve diversification/de-dollarization trend and supporting emerging market (EM) official sector gold demand,” Citi analysts wrote in a note.

According to Citi, gold prices could reach $3,000 during the start of Q2 2025. That’s an uptick and return on investment (ROI) of approximately 5% from its current price of $2,861. Therefore, an investment of $10,000 could turn into $10,500 if the forecast turns out to be accurate.

Citi also wrote that if gold gets exempt from tariffs, it would be best to accumulate the precious metal and hold on for the long term. “A Russia/Ukraine peace deal, and confirmation of whether gold would be exempt from broad tariffs (or not), could provide a buying opportunity over the next 2-3 months,” wrote the commodity analysts. READ MORE

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2.6.25 - Gold demand hits record levels

Gold last traded at $2,855 an ounce. Silver at $32.22 an ounce.

EDITOR'S NOTE: Central Banks are putting the pedal to the metal, when it comes to buying gold. As the global financial system seems to be changing before our very eyes, smart money is playing it safe by hedging their holdings with gold.

Gold demand hits record levels as central banks buy at 'eye-watering' pace -Yahoo! Finance

by Ines Ferré · Senior Business Reporter

Gold demand is surging to new records, driven by accelerating purchases from central banks as well as investors seeking a safe haven amid the threat of escalating tariffs.

On Wednesday gold hit record highs for the fifth consecutive day, surpassing $2,877 per ounce in trading, as futures (GC=F) also climbed to new highs above $2,900.

"Central banks continued to hoover up gold at an eye-watering pace" in 2024, according to a report by the World Gold Council, as purchases accelerated sharply in the fourth quarter. Total demand last year reached a new high of 4,974 tonnes.

Joe Cavatoni, market strategist at the World Gold Council, said central bank purchases were driven by "concerns about ongoing inflation, geopolitical tensions, and needs to add diversification to their portfolios."

The Federal Reserve's rate-cutting cycle, which began last year, prompted global inflows into physical-backed gold exchange-traded funds (ETFs), including from Western investors. A lower interest rate environment is bullish for gold since it doesn't have to compete with yield-bearing assets.

Global ETF demand remained steady, with 2024 marking the first year since 2020 in which holdings were essentially unchanged, in contrast to the heavy outflows of the prior three years, according to the report.

Gold is up roughly 8% year to date after gaining over 27% in 2024, outpacing the S&P 500's (^GSPC) gain of 23.1%.

In late January, Goldman Sachs analysts reiterated their bullish call on the precious metal as the threat of escalating tariffs drives continued demand.

“We reiterate that long gold remains our highest conviction trading recommendation across commodities, driven by structural (Central Bank buying) and cyclical (ETF buying) factors,” the analysts said, reiterating a $3,000 per troy ounce price forecast for the second quarter of 2026. VIEW CHARTS AND READ MORE

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2.5.25 - China Prepared for Trade War With US

Gold last traded at $2,867 an ounce. Silver at $32.31 an ounce.

Job Openings Unexpectedly Crater By More Than 500K As Wheels Start To Fall Off The Job Market -ZeroHedge

The job market continues to take it on the chin, as reflected in the most recent numbers. It was just a few months ago - at the tail-end of the Biden administration - it was discovered the actual job numbers had been grossly misstated; and it appears that trend is continuing.

by Tyler Durden

One month after we reported that job openings "unexpectedly" soared on "a record 2 month surge in professional services", moments ago the BLS reported that the biggest rollercoaster series in the US data set just collapsed, when December job openings "unexpectedly" cratered by 556,000, from 8.156 million to just 7.600 milion, the second lowest print since the covid crash...

... and all Wall Street estimates with the exception of one, SocGen's 7.5 million job openings forecast.

According to the BLS, the number of job openings decreased in professional and business services (-225,000), a sharp reversal from last month's +273,000 surge, as well as health care and social assistance (-180,000), and finance and insurance (-136,000). Job openings increased in arts, entertainment, and recreation (+65,000). VIEW CHARTS AND READ MORE

BRICS: China Prepared for Trade War With US, Experts Say -Watcher.Guru

Tariffs or not, China is preparing to go to war with the US; a trade war that is. This comes as no surprise, but that doesn't mean it is of any less concern as it speaks to some of the economic vulnerabilities we're facing.

by Joshua Ramos

{Source: Watcher Guru}

The arrival of such tariffs could have dire implications for the collective. However, the bloc has continued to say its intention is to not target the US dollar. Specifically, several BRICS nations have noted its desire is to only increase international economic participation from nations in the global south. To do that, the group has sought to increase the use of its own native currencies in global trade.

The last few months have seen geopolitical tension between the US and the global south reach a fever pitch. Following Donald Trump’s election in late 2024, one of his focuses was on maintaining the global status of the dollar. That has placed one specific economic alliance in his sights.

This week, he has once again reaffirmed his commitment to impending tariffs. Moreover, they are expected to be enacted within the next week. As those BRICS and Western confrontations persist, China is reportedly prepared for a trade war, experts have said. READ MORE

US Factory Orders Declined Overall In 2025 -ZeroHedge

Factory orders being down is not a sign of a healthy economy. Even though our stock market continues to rally, at some point the reality of our economy - and the numbers reflected by the various exchanges - have got to cross paths.

by Tyler Durden

Despite a surge in the Manufacturing (soft) survey data in December and January, 'hard' data continues to disappoint...Source: Bloomberg

...as US Factory Orders fell 0.9% MoM in December (worse than the 0.8% decline expected) with November revised dramatically lower (to -0.8% MoM from -0.4% MoM)...Source: Bloomberg

This left US Factory Orders in Bidenomics' final year down 1.1% YoY while Core Factory Orders (ex-Transportation) rose 0.3% MoM - the fourth straight monthly rise - and up 1.4% YoY... READ MORE

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2.4.25 - JPMorgan Plans $4 Billion US Gold Delivery

Gold last traded at $2,842 an ounce. Silver at $32.15 an ounce.

EDITOR'S NOTE: Some countries may not be taking Trump's tariff threats seriously, but JP Morgan sure seems to be. How seriously? Enough to move billions of dollars' worth of gold back to the US, so it doesn't get swept up in this tariff storm.

JPMorgan Plans $4 Billion US Gold Delivery Amid Tariff Fears -Yahoo! Finance

by Jack Ryan and Jack Farchy

(Bloomberg) -- JPMorgan Chase & Co. will deliver gold bullion valued at more than $4 billion against futures contracts in New York in February, at a time when surging prices and the threat of import tariffs are fueling a worldwide dash to ship metal to the US.

The bank, which is by far the world’s biggest bullion dealer, was one of several institutions to declare plans on Thursday to deliver bullion against contracts traded on CME Group’s Comex that will expire in February. The delivery notices — which total 3 million troy ounces of gold — were the second largest ever in bourse data going back to 1994. Traders on Friday declared their intent to deliver another 1.1 million troy ounces on Tuesday, according to the latest notice from CME Group.

Fears of imminent tariffs on imports following the election of US President Donald Trump have caused prices for gold futures on Comex to surge over spot prices in London. Spot prices shot to record highs last week, but the additional premium on Comex has created a lucrative arbitrage opportunity for the handful of banks that can quickly fly bullion between key trading hubs.

Similar pricing dynamics have emerged in other Comex contracts too, and the disparity has become so large that traders have started flying silver into the country. The precious metal is usually too cheap and bulky to justify the cost of airfreight, and one industry veteran says it’s the first time they’ve seen it happen. READ MORE

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2.3.25 - Gold Hits New Record High

Gold last traded at $2,814 an ounce. Silver at $31.58 an ounce.

EDITOR'S NOTE: Add to the ongoing de-dollarization efforts the threat of tariffs - and you have the perfect storm to send investors running to safe havens, namely, gold. Gold hit fresh highs today as uncertainty runs rampant through the domestic and global economies. Read on to see why.

Gold Hits New Record High; Dear Jerome Powell, Is Everything Under Control? -MishTalk

by Mike Shedlock

Gold does not believe the Fed has things under control and neither do I.

Reuters reports Gold hits record high on safe-haven demand amid tariff threats.

At the beginning of 2021, the US dollar index was 89. The US dollar index is now 108.

The price of gold advanced from $1962 to nearly $2900. It’s now about $2850.

Yet, people still believe moves in the dollar determine moves in the price of gold.

I suggest the price of gold moves in accordance with long-term inflation and faith in the Fed.

From 1980 to 2000 there was inflation every step of the way, but gold fell from $850 to $250. There was inflation from 2011 to 2015 when gold fell from $1923 to $1045.

People thought Greenspan was “The Great Maestro” and Mario Draghi saved the Euro.

Gold tends to do very poorly in such times and in periods of disinflation.

A friend of mine emailed some thoughts on what’s changed. VIEW LINKS AND READ MORE

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1.31.25 - The Gold Bull Continues its Charge

Gold last traded at $2,796 an ounce. Silver at $31.32 an ounce.

EDITOR'S NOTE: Gold has been consistently reaching new highs in just the first month of 2025, and it appears it's not stopping. There's always someone out there who has lofty predictions for the future, but there is compelling data compiled here as to why experts anticipate the more upward movement.

A Gold Price Prediction for 2025 2026 2027 – 2030 -Investing Haven

Our gold price prediction for the coming years remains firmly bullish. Some periods of weakness characterized by gold price pullbacks can be expected. Gold price targets: $3,260 in 2025, near $3,775 in 2026, peak gold price prediction of $5,120 by 2030.

January 30th – This gold article is now up to date with the ‘latest and greatest’ gold price charts:

Gold chart over 20 years (stunningly bullish).
Inflation expectations chart – strongly correlated with gold (hint: bullish).
Gold price to inflation expectations ratio (must-see chart).
Gold chart over 50 years – a potential bearish pattern is being invalidated

We strongly recommend to check the latest gold charts in this article.

They are worth your time and attention, especially since this article including charts are very well researched. VIEW CHARTS AND READ MORE

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1.30.25 - More Americans Reliant On Food Banks

Gold last traded at $2,793 an ounce. Silver at $31.65 an ounce.

EDITOR'S NOTE: How severe is the inflation crisis in our country? In a word, very. Many Americans are experiencing food insecurity; and the sharpest increase is among households earning $100,000-$150,000. In addition, 59% of Americans don't have enough in savings for a $1,000 emergency.

Inflation Storm Leaves Americans More Reliant On Food Banks -ZeroHedge

by Tyler Durden

Emily Engelhard, Vice President of Research at Feeding America, told Bloomberg that elevated and persistent inflation ushered in a "new era of food insecurity," emphasizing that "this is no longer an unemployment issue."

Feeding America, the largest charity working to end hunger in the US, has a nationwide network of more than 200 food banks that feed more than 46 million people through food pantries, soup kitchens, shelters, and other community-based agencies.

"Everyone sees prices getting high — for food, clothes, everything," Kersstin Eshak told Bloomberg, who recently visited a food bank in Loudoun County, Virginia. She said the inflation nightmare over the last several years depleted her pocketbook.

America's cost-of-living crisis mostly erupted during the Biden-Harris regime's first term.

Ethan Amos, the head of the Flagstaff Family Food Center in Arizona, said his food bank broke records in 2022 by serving an average of 28,000 meals per month. That figure has now surged to a staggering 40,000 meals per month, driven by the inflationary pressures unleashed during the Biden-Harris administration's disastrous "Bidenomics."

Believe it or not, Washington, DC, has a hunger crisis. The largest food bank in the area, Capital Area Food Bank, distributed 64 million meals last year—five million more than the previous year. Data from the food bank shows that food insecurity has risen most sharply among households earning $100,000–$150,000. READ MORE

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1.29.25 - Biden Leaves Office With All-Time-Record US Trade Deficit

Gold last traded at $2,756 an ounce. Silver at $30.89 an ounce.

Gold: Forget ATH, The Real Secular Breakout Confirmation Is Here -Investing Haven

The really big breakout for gold may finally be here; and this is on top of the stellar run it's already had over the last 15 months. If you don't own gold, it's time to change that.

On the quarterly gold price chart, we observe a gold secular breakout. For now, it qualifies as an attempt. Confirming is pending, and a decisive date will be March 31st, 2025.

There is a lot of chatter about gold’s test of ATH.

What goes unnoticed is gold’s attempt to invalidate a secular bearish chart structure.

Gold’s ATH is not a secular breakout

There is a tremendous supply of financial content related to gold.

However, financial and social media are very short term oriented.

Take the focus on gold’s ATH (here and here for instance). Gold’s test of ATH is attracting a lot of attention.

Why?

Because it’s easy to create content.

Investors are left with the perception that exceeding ATH is the most important thing.

We don’t think so, as there is a much more important ‘chart event’ to watch in the gold market.

Gold’s real secular breakout

The really important news comes from gold’s longest timeframe.

That’s not the daily gold price chart but rather the quarterly gold chart. Below is the 50-year gold chart.

As seen below, a true gold secular breakout is in progress now. And the secular breakout on gold’s chart coincides with the invalidation of the rising wedge which, by default, is a bearish structure.

What we are saying is that the only thing holding gold back, currently, is the potential rising wedge.

Conversely, once this rising wedge is cleared, gold is invalidating any potential bearish dynamics. By exclusion, that’s very (very) bullish. VIEW CHARTS AND READ MORE

Biden Leaves Office With All-Time-Record US Trade Deficit In December -ZeroHedge

It's hard to argue that Biden did anything good for the economy when we are still discovering more ways in which is was damaged during his term. This damage has been felt by every American household for years now, even though it took the "official numbers" a few years to catch up. The hope is that the new administration has the cure for what economically ails us.

by Tyler Durden

It wasn't just his approval rating that was at a record low when President Biden left office; data from the Commerce Department today shows that Biden's last month in office saw the US merchandise-trade deficit widen to a record low (high). The shortfall in goods expanded 18% to $122.1 billion...

This was dramatically worse than the expected $105.5 billion...

Breaking down the details:

Imports grew nearly 4% to $289.6 billion.

Exports decreased 4.5% to $167.5 billion.

Additionally, the Commerce Department report showed retail inventories slid 0.3% last month, the first drop in a year.

Inventories at car dealers fell 1.2%, marking the third straight decline after more than two years of gains.

Stockpiles at wholesalers declined 0.5%.

The figures suggest trade will be a bigger drag on fourth-quarter gross domestic product, which will be reported on Thursday.

Prior to the data, the Atlanta Fed’s GDPNow forecast had net exports barely adding to GDP and inventories subtracting 0.23 percentage point.

US manufacturers remain challenged by weak overseas economies and a strong dollar that risk keeping the trade gap wide this year. VIEW CHARTS

American AI Strikes Back -Daily Reckoning

Can America win the AI race against China? Only time will tell. Hopefully the DeepSeek threat spurs us to action and encourages American AI to dig deeper.

by Adam Sharp

American AI firms have rung the alarm bell and all personnel have reported to battle stations (their computers).

Yesterday, we got a response from OpenAI (ChatGPT owner) CEO Sam Altman. Here’s what he posted on X about DeepSeek:

deepseek’s r1 is an impressive model, particularly around what they’re able to deliver for the price.

we will obviously deliver much better models and also it’s legit invigorating to have a new competitor! we will pull up some releases.

Altman’s comments suggest that the DeepSeek threat is real. And as a result, OpenAI will “pull up some releases”, meaning they will accelerate the release of more advanced models.

Last Friday, OpenAI took the first step. They released “Operator” to Pro users ($200/month). Operator is an AI agent which can directly control your computer and complete tasks on your behalf.

This is likely a model which was ready for some time, but was held back due to safety concerns. Imagine what hackers and scammers could do with an upgraded version of ChatGPT which can control your computer! Look ma, no hands!

Those safety concerns are now out the window. Legitimate competition from China has emerged, and winning is now the only thing that matters.

OpenAI, Anthropic, and Google will go full speed ahead. Think about how powerful these reasoning AI agents will be. Eventually they’ll be able to do your taxes, check emails, and complete work tasks.

With President Trump back in the White House, domestic AI companies will finally be able to unleash their full potential.

Will it be enough? The continued dominance of America’s tech sector depends on the answer to this question. READ MORE

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1.28.25 - Gold Price Sends 'Important Message' On Recession

Gold last traded at $2,763 an ounce. Silver at $30.42 an ounce.

EDITOR'S NOTE: Are we headed for a recession? Patrick Karim believes that gold and silver prices are warning us that we are; and quickly. All the more reason to make sure your holdings are properly diversified.

Gold Price Sends ‘Important Message’ On Recession, Expert Says -Watcher.Guru

by Joshua Ramos

With the new presidential administration in place, all eyes are on the United States’ economic health. The country has not ceased to engage in some concerning geopolitical tensions while also championing its position on digital assets. Yet, one expert has recently stated that the gold price and silver have both sent a “very important message” on a potential US recession.

The US dollar had been thriving following the inauguration of US President Donald Trump. However, the greenback has recently slid to reach a January low. That pushed the interest in gold higher, as the metal neared its all-time high price of $2,790 set in October of 2024. Moreover, there are expectations that it could be on a record trajectory as January comes to a close.

Although the US dollar has been the world currency since post-World War II, there is no denying that gold still holds an important role. Indeed, the yellow metal is viewed as a critical hedge to the inflationary pressures the US currency faces. Moreover, with cryptocurrencies enjoying a rising relevance, that has not shifted the potential that the metal still has.

Now, one expert has recently shared that the asset also holds robust information. Similar to stock market trading, the price of these resources can help to give insight. For the gold price, one expert claims it is trying to give a “very important message” on an impending recession in the United States.

“Gold and Silver are possibly sending a VERY important message to those that are listening,” Patrick Karim said in a post to X (formerly Twitter). Alongside all other evidence, it is tough to see we are not heading into a recession. Sooner rather than later,” he added. READ MORE

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1.27.25 - Gold Flirts With Record High

Gold last traded at $2,740 an ounce. Silver at $30.20 an ounce.

EDITOR'S NOTE: The dollar is weakening, as the gold price strengthens. This is a direct result of Trump softening his stance on trade with - and tariffs on - China. The dollar will likely continue to experience volatility as as Trump navigates his way through the Biden economy he inherited.

Gold Flirts With Record High as Trump’s China Remarks Hit Dollar -Yahoo! Finance

by Jack Ryan and Yvonne Yue Li

(Bloomberg) -- Gold rose close to a record high after US President Donald Trump signaled a less aggressive approach to China, weakening the dollar.

Bullion traded near $2,780 an ounce, the highest since it touched an all-time high in October. Trump said he’d “rather not have to use” levies against China during an interview that aired on Fox News on Thursday. A gauge of the dollar fell as much as 0.7%, making the precious metal cheaper for most buyers.

Gold is up almost 3% this week, mainly on haven demand amid uncertainty over the global economic outlook. New US-imposed tariffs would benefit gold even in spite of accompanying dollar strengthening, according to Joni Teves, a strategist for UBS Group AG.

“We expect investors to be willing to look through dollar strength,” Teves wrote in a note, adding that gold would draw demand as a safe haven and diversifier in a period of volatility and macro uncertainty.

Traders have been glued to Trump’s commentary on trade and tariffs since he took office earlier this week. The president has identified China, the EU, Canada and Mexico as potential targets for import levies, raising concerns about how other governments might respond. Trump on Thursday told the World Economic Forum in Davos via video that he intends to hit Europe with import levies in a bid to bring manufacturing back to the US. READ MORE

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1.24.25 - Buffett Indicator flashing a warning sign

Gold last traded at $2,773 an ounce. Silver at $30.68 an ounce.

EDITOR'S NOTE: Is the stock market headed into bear territory? Even the most seasoned investors cannot always accurately predict the future. This is why it's so important to have a portfolio that is properly diversified. Call us today to ensure you are protected, whether the stock market crashes or has more room to rise.

The stock market gauge named after Warren Buffett just hit an all-time high, sending a warning worse than before the dot-com bubble burst -Yahoo! Finance

by Paolo Confino

(Fortune) --- One of Berkshire Hathaway chairman Warren Buffett’s favorite market metrics is flashing a warning sign.

The Buffett Indicator, which calculates the ratio of market cap of all U.S. publicly traded stocks to the country’s gross domestic product, is at the highest level in several decades, according to research from Kailash Capital Research. As of November 2024, the figure reached 230%, the highest on record, according to Kailash’s data. That type of market dynamic hasn’t been seen since March 2000 around the time the dot-com bubble burst. Back then, the market-to-GDP ratio had reached a record level of 175%.

For Buffett Indicator supporters, the gauge is a useful metric in predicting when a stock market slump might happen. If company valuations exceed total GDP, it can indicate that they aren’t creating enough genuine economic value that gets recirculated in the economy. In other words, those companies are valued higher than the actual value they create.

“There has to be actual, real economic profits in order to justify valuations,” said Matthew Malgari, one of the report’s authors. “The data is unforgiving,” he and coauthor Sanjeev Bhojraj warned.

The metric is especially useful in Buffett’s eyes for gauging the current valuations of companies—are they too high, too low, or just right? If they are too high, as the Buffett Indicator would currently suggest, then investors should expect paltry returns in the stock market. Buffett outlined his views on the matter in a 1999 Fortune interview.

“You need to remember that future returns are always affected by current valuations and give some thought to what you’re getting for your money in the stock market right now,” Buffet said. READ MORE

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1.23.25 - A New ‘Golden Age’ for America

Gold last traded at $2,756 an ounce. Silver at $30.43 an ounce.

EDITOR'S NOTE: It's pretty customary to see presidential pardons issued when a president leaves office, granted for a variety of reasons. When it comes to Biden's pardons, that reason was covering the crimes of his corrupt family members and political cronies. In brighter news, the Trump is already taking action on his campaign promises.

A New ‘Golden Age’ for America -Daily Reckoning

by James Rickards

With the exception of the presidential election last November, no period will be more full of political headlines than the weeks just past and the few weeks ahead. The transition from one administration to another on Inauguration Day, January 20, 2025, was both politically momentous and historic. This is especially true when the two political parties are handing over power from one to the other.

It’s fair to say that Americans are most interested in Trump’s first day actions in the form of executive orders, policy statements and moves that will be made in the days ahead. We cover that in detail below. But Inauguration Day for a new president is also the final day for the outgoing president. We’ll begin with a quick look at Joe Biden’s final desperate acts.

Biden Remains Dirty to the End

Biden remained true to form as a dirty political hack who seemed not to know where he was or what he was doing but could at least sign any document shoved in front of his face by his far-left-wing staff. Among his last-minute acts were blanket pardons of some of the worst criminals of the past four years.

Most egregious were Biden’s pardons of members of the Biden Crime Family including his brothers Frankie and Jim, his sister Valerie and their spouses. The reasons for this are clear. The Biden money laundering and tax evasion operations that were ancillary to the main bribery operation required various parties to open bank accounts, receive wires, write checks to the Big Guy, and otherwise blur the paper trail on the corruption. That’s where family members including spouses and children came in.

Of course, Hunter Biden was the main bagman and shakedown artist, but he was pardoned last month. Now the cover-up of the Bidens receiving bribes from China, Ukraine and even Russia in exchange for selling out U.S. national security is complete. READ MORE

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1.22.25 - Saudi Arabia To Join BRICS?

Gold last traded at $2,756 an ounce. Silver at $30.82 an ounce.

Gold Advances to 11-Week High as Trump Hints at China Tariffs -Yahoo! Finance

Gold is off to a great start in 2025. The projections are very bullish for the year ahead, as economic developments continue to take shape around the globe. Now is the time to be diversified into metals.

by Yvonne Yue Li

(Bloomberg) -- Gold climbed to its highest intraday level since the end of October, with traders monitoring the outlook for the global economy as US President Donald Trump continued sketching out his views on trade and immigration policies.

Trump has widened his tariff threats to China and the European Union on top of his signals targeting Canada and Mexico in the coming weeks. Investors are focused on the implications of the Trump administration’s tariff and tax cut policies, which economists say may reignite inflation — limiting the Federal Reserve’s ability to keep easing monetary policy. Higher borrowing costs typically pose a headwind for bullion since it doesn’t pay interest.

Gold set a series of records last year, with gains driven by the Fed’s pivot to cutting interest rates, geopolitical tensions and central-bank buying. The precious metal may receive a further boost from demand for safe-haven assets amid concerns about the Trump’s immigration policy, as well as scope for increasingly fraught US relations with other nations. READ MORE

Saudi Arabia Considering To Join BRICS -Watcher.Guru

The anticipated slow down in BRICS activity as Trump took office hasn't materialized. The latest invitation to join the bloc was issued to Saudi Arabia. The momentum seems to be building in the wrong direction for the US.

by Vinod Dsouza

Saudi Arabia received an invitation to join the BRICS alliance in 2023 and be a part of the global grouping. However, the Kingdom did not officially accept or reject the invitation but kept the decision on hold. They are yet to make a final decision on whether they want to join the alliance or not.

The country’s Economy and Planning Minister Faisal bin Fadhil Al-Ibrahim confirmed that Saudi Arabia is still assessing the BRICS membership. “The kingdom is always focusing on fostering more global dialogue,” Faisal Al-Ibrahim said in an interview with Bloomberg at the World Economic Forum in Davos, Switzerland. He said that the Kingdom will come to an “appropriate decision.”

He revealed that Saudi Arabia is looking at the pros and cons of joining BRICS and will make a decision soon. “We’ve been invited to BRICS, similar to how we’ve been invited to many other multilateral platforms in the past historically. We assess many different aspects of it before a decision is made and right now, we are in the middle of that,” he said.

The BRICS alliance will get a boost in the arm if Saudi Arabia accepts the invitation and joins the bloc. Saudi Arabia is rich in cash flow and can fund the projects of the New Development Bank (NDB). The Kingdom is also oil-rich and can make BRICS control nearly 42% of the world’s natural oil and gas sector. READ MORE

Better Markets CEO Now Predicts A Financial Crash Worse Than 2008 -FrankNez.com

We've been hearing a lot of projections that our equity markets are due for a correction, thankfully it's been all talk so far. The reality of a market that is overvalued, combined with an economy that's struggling, is definitely cause for concern. Some are expecting even bigger corrections than those of 2008. Let's hope not.

Better Markets CEO, Dennis Kelleher, now predicts a financial crash much worse than 2008, stating “the clock is ticking”.

Dennis Kelleher, the tireless Co-Founder and CEO of Better Markets, has just unveiled the organization’s January 2025 newsletter, and it’s a compelling call to action for anyone concerned about the future of our financial system.

However, despite the claims, it is important to mention that many retail investors have expressed optimism in the stock and crypto markets for 2025.

The markets are expected to surge significantly this year under Trump, though only time will tell.

Below is the CEO’s analysis.

The Impending Crisis: A Dire Prediction

Kelleher raises an alarming red flag regarding the incoming administration of President Donald Trump, particularly highlighting the financial deregulators he has appointed.

He warns that “the clock is ticking on a coming catastrophic financial crash that will likely be much worse than 2008.”

This is not mere rhetoric; Kelleher backs his claims with historical evidence, noting a consistent pattern of financial instability following deregulation. READ MORE

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1.21.25 - Trump’s tariff plan

Gold last traded at $2,742 an ounce. Silver at $30.82 an ounce.

EDITOR'S NOTE: Trump was sworn in a mere 24 hours ago and the world is already preparing for substantial changes to the global economy. Many are hopeful these will be positives changes, but it may be a rocky journey. All the more reason to ensure your portfolio is diversified as we navigate these waters.

Here are the products and companies most at risk from Trump’s tariff plans -CNBC

by Melissa Repko, Gabrielle Fonrouge, Michael Wayland and Amelia Lucas

Many of the items that U.S. shoppers browse and buy in retailers’ aisles come from far-away factories or farms — a reality that could soon force many consumers to change their buying habits.

Sneakers, T-shirts, beer and other common household items are often made in countries like China, Mexico and Canada before they wind their way to a big-box retailer, grocer or mall in the U.S. That complex global supply chain was front and center Monday as President-elect Donald Trump was inaugurated. He is widely expected to announce new tariffs on imports in the coming weeks.

While tariffs have become a familiar concept for more Americans since Trump implemented them on metals and other key materials during his first term in office, the levies he has threatened for his return to the White House could have a much bigger effect on household budgets.

Most people have little grasp of just how many items could see price hikes due to the duties: from avocados to children’s toys, to chocolate and cars, experts told CNBC. Proposed tariffs on products from China, Mexico and Canada — the three-largest U.S. trading partners — would likely affect U.S. consumers the most. READ MORE

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1.17.25 - America's Rapidly Growing Retirement Crisis

Gold last traded at $2,702 an ounce. Silver at $30.35 an ounce.

EDITOR'S NOTE: The current state of our economy has created a retirement crisis. A crisis which has long been predicted, but now has aggravating factors. The facts and figures in this article provide an in-depth look at exactly what it means.

18 Incredible Statistics About America's Rapidly Growing Retirement Crisis That Will Blow Your Mind -ZeroHedge

Authored by Michael Snyder via The End of The American Dream blog

We are facing an unprecedented retirement crisis in this nation. Millions upon millions of Baby Boomers are retiring, and most of them are struggling. In fact, it has been estimated that 80 percent of our retirees are either struggling right now or are in serious danger of falling into financial insecurity. We are supposed to be the economic powerhouse of the world. How could we have allowed this to happen?

There are several reasons why our retirement crisis has become so severe.

First of all, people are living significantly longer than they did decades ago, and so retirees need more money these days.

Secondly, most retirees did not save enough for retirement, and many of them entered their retirement years carrying high levels of debt.

Thirdly, healthcare costs are completely and utterly out of control in this country. We desperately need to do something about this.

Fourthly, high inflation has made the cost of living extremely oppressive.

Fifthly, pension plans are less common then they once were, and so more retirees than ever are depending upon Social Security as their primary source of income.

When you step back and consider the big picture, it is clear that we have a major problem on our hands, and there are no easy solutions. READ MORE

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1.16.25 - BRICS & US Standoff to Send Oil Prices Skyrocketing

Gold last traded at $2,715 an ounce. Silver at $30.82 an ounce.

EDITOR'S NOTE: Sparks are beginning to fly between BRICS & the US, and it looks like oil is catching on fire as a result. Oil prices will surge as the the two competing entities clash. This is likely the first of several battles we will see as the tensions build.

BRICS & US Standoff to Send Oil Prices Skyrocketing: Goldman Sachs Says -Watcher.Guru

by Joshua Ramos

With both the BRICS economic alliance and the US engaged in a standoff, Goldman Sachs has warned that the geopolitical tension could send oil prices skyrocketing. Indeed, the presence of sanctions and de-dollarization efforts could erupt into greater economic difficulty on a global scale.

US President-elect Donald Trump has not minced words regarding his feelings toward the BRICS bloc. He warned the alliance of incoming tariffs in retaliation for its efforts to abandon the US dollar as the world’s currency. Now, the bloc is facing the ongoing warning as it looks to continue navigating the presence of sanctions.

The past two years have seen the BRICS economic alliance target increased use of the US dollar. Specifically, they have called on the global south to initiate a continued effort to promote the use of local currencies. Therefore, the work would lessen the international presence of the greenback.

Although alliance nations have complied, it has failed to take hold the way the collective had hoped. Now, all eyes are on what should be critical in 2025. With Donald Trump not content to embrace Joe Biden’s willingness to overlook the bloc’s activity, he is likely to take action. According to Goldman Sachs, the world may pay the price, as the BRICS and US standoff could drive oil prices higher. READ MORE

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1.15.25 - Gold and Silver - 2025's Bullish Signals

Gold last traded at $2,695 an ounce. Silver at $30.71 an ounce.

A Gold Price Prediction for 2025 2026 2027 – 2030 -Investing Haven

Gold saw several favorable predictions at the beginning of 2024, and delivered quite nicely. The yellow metal started the year around $2,000 an ounce and finished the year over $2,600. The next few years may see similar appreciation.

Our gold price prediction for the coming years remains firmly bullish. Some periods of weakness characterized by gold price pullbacks can be expected. Gold price targets: $3,275 in 2025, near $3,800 in 2026, peak gold price prediction of $5,150 by 2030.

The summary of our gold price prediction is presented the first section of this article. The remainder of this article provides a deep understanding of the true dynamics driving the gold price.

We start with a quick summary of our gold price prediction and continue presenting the extensive research of how we got to these gold price predictions.

1. Gold price forecast for 2025, 2026, 2027, 2030

This is the outcome of our gold price prediction analysis outlined in the remainder of this article.

2025: max gold price right above $3,275.
2026: max gold price around $3,800.
2027: max gold price around $4,400.
2030: peak gold price prediction $5,050.

The ranges indicated in this summary are estimates produced by InvestingHaven’s research, based on current and predicted intermarket trends and secular gold charts. READ MORE

Silver: This Beautiful Failed Breakdown May Be A Bullish Signal For 2025 -Investing Haven

2025 may also be a breakout year for silver. Some may have lost heart with the recent pullbacks, but this could be a signaling of its next upward move. The fundamentals are certainly in place for tremendous appreciation.

Silver broke down on December 18th. It recovered on January 9th, 2025, exactly after 13 trading days, a Fibonacci number. Silver’s failed breakdown is inherently bullish.

In this article, we focus on the silver chart. We combine time and price analysis.

In doing so, we find that silver’s recent weakness coincided with a failed breakdown, invalidated on Thursday, January 9th, 2025.

That’s potentially great news for silver investors, as silver’s failed breakdown has a legacy of leading to selling exhaustion by creating a turning point.

Silver’s failed breakdown – price

We look at the price axis of the silver chart.

The 2024 rising trendline was violated on December 18th, 2024.
The FOMC press conference combined with the rate cut decision pushed the price of silver strongly lower.
In doing so, the rising trendline got broken down.

Strictly looking at price, silver is now in a long term consolidation, below the rising trend (still flat). READ MORE

A global bond sell-off is deepening as investors pare Fed rate-cut expectations -CNBC

The Fed continues to lose ground - as well as favor - in the investment world, and their losses are accelerating. The US has its work cut out for itself when it comes to regaining strength, in the midst of the tsunami of debt.

by Lee Ying Shan

A sell-off in global bond markets is accelerating, fueling concerns over government finances and raising the specter of higher borrowing costs for consumers and businesses around the world.

Bond yields have mostly been rising globally with the U.S. 10-year Treasury yield touching a fresh 14-month high of 4.799% on Monday, as investors reassess the pace at which the Federal Reserve might lower interest rates.

In the UK, the 30-year gilt yields are hovering at their highest level since 1998, and the country’s 10-year yield recently hit levels not seen since 2008.

Japan, which has been striving to normalize its monetary policy after ending its negative interest rates regime early last year, has seen its 10-year government bond yield rise over 1%, hitting its highest in 13 years on Tuesday, LSEG data showed.

In Asia-Pacific, India’s 10-year bond yields rose the most in over a month on Monday and are near 2-month highs at 6.846%. Yields on New Zealand and Australia’s 10-year benchmark government bonds were also near two-month highs. READ MORE

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1.14.25 - Gold vs Interest Rates

Gold last traded at $2,676 an ounce. Silver at $29.91 an ounce.

EDITOR'S NOTE: With economies the world over in turmoil, more and more nations - and central banks - are turning back to gold; and looking to make gold the reserve currency of choice. As Mr. Sharp puts it, "Gold is apolitical. As long as it's in a vault within a country's own borders, there's really no safer asset one can own. It is the ultimate sovereign form of money." This could mark the beginning of the resurgence of one of the most time-honored assets on earth.

My Favorite Way to Play Gold’s Rise -Daily Reckoning

by Adam Sharp

The past few years have been unusual for gold and interest rates.

Both have ripped higher together.

Historically, these two are often inversely correlated, meaning when the bond yields are high, gold is weak. And vice versa. But no longer.

The chart shows the price of gold vs. U.S. real interest rates (10y bond yield minus inflation expectations).

As you can see, the two traded inversely up until 2022. When yields rose, gold fell. When yields fell, gold rose.

The old paradigm made sense. When real yields on bonds are high, more investors will switch out of gold and into Treasuries. When yields are low, gold becomes more attractive as a way to preserve purchasing power.

So why did this relationship change beginning in 2022?

Well, there was that minor incident where the U.S. confiscated $300 billion of Russian central bank assets. Remember that? It was part of Uncle Sam’s punishment package after Russia invaded Ukraine.

Surely that couldn’t be related. Right? VIEW CHART AND READ MORE

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