Swiss America Blog Archive

7.1.24 - High Cost Of Groceries Making You Sick? You're Not Alone

Gold last traded at $2,332 an ounce. Silver at $29.44 an ounce.

EDITOR'S NOTE: We've all been feeling the pinch of rising costs over the past few years. The reality of just how out of control it has become is shocking. The fact of the matter is, it's likely going to get worse before it gets any better.

If The High Cost Of Groceries Makes You Feel Sick, You Are Not Alone -The Economic Collapse

If you are really struggling with the high cost of living, I want you to know that you aren’t alone. In recent months, I have been hearing from so many people that feel like they are drowning financially. Have you experienced a palpable sense of panic when you compare your rising bills to the level of income that you are currently bringing in? So many people out there are stressed out of their minds because it has become such a struggle to pay the bills each month. As I discussed a few days ago, a typical U.S. household must now spend $1,069 more a month just to buy the exact same goods and services that it did three years ago. Over the course of an entire year, that is almost an extra $13,000 dollars. Month after month, prices just keep going higher, but those that are running things continue to insist that everything is just fine.

No, everything is not just fine.

Last week, a TikTok video about rising grocery prices at Walmart quickly garnered more than a million views. The person that made the video found a grocery order that he had placed two years ago, and he decided to hit the “Reorder All” button to see what that same order would cost today…

A recent TikTok video has gone viral, showing a user’s surprising experience with Walmart’s grocery prices. The user explained in his video that he tried to use the “Reorder All” button for an order he placed two years ago, which originally cost $126.67. To his shock, the same order would now cost $414.39. READ MORE

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6.28.24 - Enormous Chain Files Unexpected Bankruptcy

Gold last traded at $2,325 an ounce. Silver at $29.11 an ounce.

EDITOR'S NOTE: The financial landscape across America has experienced numerous changes over the last few years, very few of them positive. The latest domino to fall has been an iconic staple of fast food for decades, Burger King.

Enormous Restaurant Chain Now Files Unexpected Bankruptcy -FrankNez.com

An enormous restaurant chain has now filed for a Chapter 11 bankruptcy due to heavy losses in revenue as a result of the global pandemic.

Burger King saw many of its franchisees file for bankruptcy with as many as 400 restaurants having to close its doors.

This is of course largely due to the pandemic which saw a massive increase in prices, a change in labor as well as a change in dining habits, which all accumulated to those restaurants having to close.

Many of these restaurants have found it difficult to focus on drive-thru service as well as takeout orders only, causing the start of Burger King’s bankruptcy.

Other restaurant chains have been able to thrive due to heavy investments in technology while those that did not, have struggled.

Although inflation has slightly stabilized, pressure on these restaurants have only increased, as many restaurant chains have raised their minimum wage, with California raising it to $20, reports The Street. READ MORE

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6.27.24 - It's Not You. It's Bidenflation.

Gold last traded at $2,326 an ounce. Silver at $28.96 an ounce.

EDITOR'S NOTE: If you are one of the many who have felt the squeeze of inflation the last few years, a writer from the Wall Street Journal accused us of being "too stupid" to realize how good things really are under the current administration. We now have someone who has stepped up in our defense, Sean Ring; as he tells the real story of what's been taking place.

It’s Not You. It’s Bidenflation. -Daily Reckoning

by Sean Ring

Joke Biden didn’t invent inflation. But he inadvertently attached his name to it, much like Jimmy Carter did in the 1970s.

A few months ago, Greg Ip wrote the most condescendingly asinine article The Wall Street Journal ever had the misfortune to publish. In “What’s Wrong With the Economy? It’s You, Not the Data,” Ip alleged The Great Unwashed™ were too stupid to realize how good everything was under Dear Leader Potatohead Biden.

Ip wrote:

Yes, some individuals faced higher inflation (someone who bought a house, for instance) but, for the average person, inflation went down.

When it comes to the economy, the vibes are at war with the facts, and the vibes are winning. This is obviously bad news for President Biden’s re-election hopes. He can’t exactly tell voters that they are wrong; he would be called out of touch. And it probably wouldn’t change anything. The vibes seem symptomatic of a broader pessimism disconnected from the data.

It’s tempting to chalk this up to a misunderstanding. Lower inflation means the level of prices is still rising, just more slowly than before. People sometimes conflate inflation with the level of prices and believe inflation is getting worse because the price level keeps going up (it rarely goes down).

The thing is, Ippie thinks you should care more about the math than your wallet. Sure, inflation can fall (disinflation) while prices keep rising, and deflation (falling prices) only happens in industries where the government can’t get its paw in the jar. But the government policy counts, not the fact you can’t buy steak next month, according to Ip.

Idiotic.

If a product cost $1 two years ago, and last year’s inflation was 10%, and this year’s is 5% (year-on-year): yes, inflation fell 50%. But it also means that the product cost $1.10 last year and $1.16 today.

That’s much more expensive (16%) for the lower and middle classes, as food, shelter, and energy costs eat up a lot more of their wallets than those of rich folk. READ MORE

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6.26.24 - Is Economy in Worse Shape than we Think?

Gold last traded at $2,298 an ounce. Silver at $28.77 an ounce.

Citigroup and Bank of America Predict Gold Prices Could Reach $3,000 Within a Year -Business Insider

The gold market has been getting one favorable review after another when it comes to performance expectations this year; the latest from Citigroup & BofA. It comes as no surprise, as the overall global economy is on very shaky ground.

by Jerry Lin

Gold prices have shown strong performance this year, increasing nearly 13% year-to-date and currently trading at $2,326.94 per ounce.

Recent reports from Bank of America and Citigroup suggest that gold prices could surge to $3,000 per ounce within the next 12-18 months, representing a potential 30% increase from current levels. Key factors driving this bullish outlook include robust physical demand, central bank purchases, concerns over U.S. Treasury securities, and anticipated Federal Reserve interest rate cuts.

Bank of America (BofA) forecasts that gold prices could reach $3,000 per ounce in the next 12-18 months. BofA emphasized that this scenario would require an increase in non-commercial demand, potentially triggered by Federal Reserve interest rate cuts, which could lead to inflows into physically backed gold ETFs. Central bank purchases are another critical factor, as efforts to reduce the U.S. dollar's share in foreign exchange portfolios may drive central banks to buy more gold.

BofA also highlighted that concerns over U.S. Treasury securities could sustain a gold bull market. They pointed out that significant volatility in the U.S. Treasury market represents a "tail risk" that becomes more probable over time. Moreover, the market does not need an actual disaster to spur demand for safe-haven assets; increasing fears of a potential disaster are sufficient. The liquidity of the U.S. debt market has deteriorated, and with the political deadlock and rising debt levels in the U.S., there are legitimate reasons to worry about unexpected shocks. READ MORE

11 Signs That The U.S. Economy Is In Far Worse Shape Than Most People Think -The Economic Collapse

The notion that our economy is in bad shape, and heading in an even worse direction, is not a tough sell. The challenges seem to be mounting with no real solutions being offered. Now some are saying that things may even be worse than we realize.

Unless you are living under a bridge or you are eagerly drinking the kool-aid that the mainstream media is dishing out, you probably understand that the economy has been struggling. Survey after survey has found that the American people are deeply dissatisfied with how the economy has been performing, and as a result it has become the number one issue this election season. But even though a large portion of the population is not happy about how things have been going, the truth is that the situation is far more dire than most people realize. Just this week we have received quite a bit of very troubling news, and the outlook for the months ahead is very bleak. The following are 11 signs that the U.S. economy is in far worse shape than most people think…

#1 Just like in 2008, delinquencies are on the rise. In fact, credit card delinquencies have now reached the highest level that we have seen in more than 10 years…

Meanwhile, more consumers aren’t making loan payments on time. Credit card delinquencies have hit their highest level in over a decade, and auto delinquencies are also spiking. This could prove to be yet another tripwire for the stock market, as consumer spending accounts for about 70% of U.S. economic activity.

#2 The commercial real estate crisis just continues to escalate. An article that originally appeared in the New York Times claims that major Wall Street banks have “begun offloading their portfolios of commercial real estate loans hoping to cut their losses”...READ MORE

The S&P 500 could crater 48% when the stock-market bubble pops and recession finally hits, elite strategist says -Business Insider

There has been a lot of talk of a market pullback, with varying opinions as to what that's going to look like. The financial strain on businesses is probably the worst it's been in decades and, if these analysts are correct, company valuations will plummet and many of them may actually become obsolete.

by Theron Mohamed

The S&P 500 could be cut in half when the stock-market bubble pops and the US economy sinks into recession, Paul Dietrich says.

"I believe the upcoming recession will result in a deeper stock market decline than we experienced in 2000 and 2008," B. Riley Wealth Management's chief investment strategist said in his latest monthly commentary.

Dietrich detailed warning signs that indicate stocks are hugely overvalued and close to suffering a correction. For example, he pointed to the S&P 500's price-to-earnings ratio and inflation-adjusted Shiller PE ratio, which, excluding past recessions, are both at multi-decade highs, and the benchmark index's historically low dividend yield of 1.35%.

He also noted the market's recent gains have been driven by investors' excitement about a handful of stocks like Microsoft and Nvidia, and their hopes that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates later this year — not fundamentals like rising corporate earnings.

Indeed, Dietrich compared the immense hype around AI with the internet mania during the dot-com bubble. He also flagged the Buffett Indicator, which has surged to 188% this year — close to the 200% mark where buying stocks would be "playing with fire" in Warren Buffett's view. READ MORE

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6.25.24 - Gold Price Prediction for July 1, 2024

Gold last traded at $2,319 an ounce. Silver at $28.92 an ounce.

EDITOR'S NOTE: There have been plenty of predictions as to where gold prices will finally settle at the close of 2024; and most of them are suggesting significant gains. We are only at the half way mark so what might we see in the near term? This forecast is calling for a pretty aggressive upside move over the course of the next week!

Gold Price Prediction for July 1, 2024 -Watcher.Guru

by Vinod Dsouza

Gold prices are trading sideways this month as the U.S. dollar gained strength in the global markets. The XAU/USD index, which tracks the performance of gold shows its price hovering around $2,325 on Tuesday’s opening bell. It is down by nearly 9 points in the charts and shed 0.38% of its value in the last hour.

Now that gold prices are on the back foot, will the precious metal dust itself and rally in the indices again? In this article, we will highlight a price prediction for gold for July 1, 2024.

Leading on-chain metrics ‘PricePredictions’ has painted a bullish picture for gold for July 1, 2024. According to the price forecast, the precious metal could kick-start a rally in the next five days and deliver profits.

PricePredictions has estimated the price of gold could breach the $2,500 mark in July 2024. The forecast estimates that gold prices could reach $2,520 on July 1, 2024. READ MORE

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6.24.24 - Banking regulators: weakness in four large lenders

Gold last traded at $2,333 an ounce. Silver at $29.55 an ounce.

EDITOR'S NOTE: Is this satire? Or an insult to the intelligence of the American people? Once more we have to stomach big bank solvency theater; as the regulators pretend to care. The Fed and the FDIC require a bank to prove its ability to unwind itself in the event of a collapse or catastrophe, the bank is woefully incapable and yet, they are given a pass until the next time they are required to prove their ability. At the end of the day, the big banks make the rules and they know it.

Regulators hit Citigroup, JPMorgan Chase, Goldman Sachs and Bank of America over living will plans -CNBC

by Hugh Son

Banking regulators on Friday disclosed that they found weaknesses in the resolution plans of four of the eight largest American lenders.

The Federal Reserve and the Federal Deposit Insurance Corp. said the so-called living wills — plans for unwinding huge institutions in the event of distress or failure — of Citigroup, JPMorgan Chase, Goldman Sachs and Bank of America filed in 2023 were inadequate.

Regulators found fault with the way each of the banks planned to unwind their massive derivatives portfolios. Derivatives are Wall Street contracts tied to stocks, bonds, currencies or interest rates.

For example, when asked to quickly test Citigroup’s ability to unwind its contracts using different inputs than those chosen by the bank, the firm came up short, according to the regulators. That part of the exercise appears to have snared all the banks that struggled with the exam.

“An assessment of the covered company’s capability to unwind its derivatives portfolio under conditions that differ from those specified in the 2023 plan revealed that the firm’s capabilities have material limitations,” regulators said of Citigroup.

The living wills are a key regulatory exercise mandated in the aftermath of the 2008 global financial crisis. Every other year, the largest US. banks must submit their plans to credibly unwind themselves in the event of catastrophe. Banks with weaknesses have to address them in the next wave of living will submissions due in 2025.

While JPMorgan, Goldman and Bank of America’s plans were each deemed to have a “shortcoming” by both regulators, Citigroup was considered by the FDIC to have a more serious “deficiency,” meaning the plan wouldn’t allow for an orderly resolution under U.S. bankruptcy code. READ MORE

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6.21.24 - Will this be the AI bubble?

Gold last traded at $2,320 an ounce. Silver at $29.55 an ounce.

EDITOR'S NOTE: Does the current stock market frenzy resemble the same mania we saw before the dot-com bubble and the 2008 housing bubble? It does, but with one key difference, the addition of the massive fiscal stimulus in response to the pandemic. We have an overvalued market with the same levels of euphoria that proceeded past crashes, with the added stress of loose monetary policy and rapidly expanding debt.

AI stock frenzy resembles dot-com bubble and may explode disastrously, experts warn -Business Insider

by Theron Mohamed

Experts say the frenzy around AI stocks resembles the last two major market bubbles — and could end in disaster if investors get spooked.

Every financial mania is different, but the current tech boom shows "some similarities with the run-up to both the dot-com and 2008 housing bubbles," Nathan Burks, Adetokunbo Fadahunsi, and Ann Marie Hibbert told Business Insider in an email.

The trio co-authored a paper titled "Financial Contagion: A Tale of Three Bubbles" in 2021. Burks was a member of West Virginia University's finance department at the time and now works as a researcher at a crypto options-trading platform called Panoptic.

Fadahunsi is an assistant professor of statistics at George Mason University, while Hibbert is the interim chair of WVU's finance department.

The bubble experts pointed to the Federal Reserve's "relatively loose" monetary policy as one common factor between this market and the last two big bubbles. But they underscored one big difference is the "unprecedented fiscal stimulus in the wake of the COVID-19 pandemic."

In other words, low interest rates and an ample money supply were contributors then and now, and the US government added fuel to the woodpile with its trillions of dollars in emergency spending during the pandemic, and its large-scale infrastructure and industrial programs since then.

"This combination of aggressive fiscal and monetary expansion, along with broader sentiment largely being driven by Big Tech (high-beta) stocks, has thus given way to an elevated level of overoptimism that is particularly similar to the foundations of the dot-com bubble as outlined in our paper," they told BI. READ MORE

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6.20.24 - Countries worried about the dollar are buying gold

Gold last traded at $2,359 an ounce. Silver at $30.74 an ounce.

EDITOR'S NOTE: More bad news for the dollar; the list of nations looking to abandon the greenback is growing rather long. And these countries intend to buy gold to hedge their bets.

More rich countries worried about the dollar want to buy gold -Business Insider

Emerging economies, such as China and its allies, have been hoarding gold to diversify from the US dollar.

But they're not the only gold buyers.

Even central banks from advanced economies are planning to load up on gold, a World Gold Council survey released on Monday indicates.

This enthusiasm for the yellow metal has come even though the spot gold price is hovering at record levels, about $2,330 an ounce, after hitting nearly $2,450 last month.

The WGC survey, conducted from February to April, found that 29% of 70 central banks — the biggest share the WGC has observed since 2019 — were planning to buy gold over the next 12 months.

Among the central banks, about 15% of those in advanced economies said they planned to do so — also the most since 2019. Meanwhile, about 40% of emerging-market central banks said they'd be buying in the coming year.

The central banks' key reasons for more gold purchases included rebalancing their reserves and hedging against risks such as rising inflation, US dollar exposure, and market instability. Eight out of the 20 central banks that said they were planning to buy more gold also cited higher economic risks in countries where reserve currencies are from because of issues such as the rising US budget deficit. READ MORE

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6.19.24 - More companies file bankruptcy, citing inflation

Gold last traded at $2,329 an ounce. Silver at $29.79 an ounce.

Gold rush to endure through 2024 though $3,000 mark may prove elusive -Yahoo! Finance

There's no doubt gold is in a bull market and, given the global demand and building economic pressures, the run may have just begun. Some may question how high gold can really go, but the yellow metal is gaining more supporters by the day.

By Brijesh Patel and Ashitha Shivaprasad

SINGAPORE (Reuters) - Gold's lightning rally to successive record highs shows every sign of continuing in the second half of 2024 as the fundamental case for bullion remains firmly in place, though $3,000 per ounce looks just out of reach, traders and industry experts said.

Investors have flocked in droves towards the precious metal, driven by expectations for monetary easing, geopolitical tension in Europe and the Middle East and - most notably - central bank purchases led by China.

Spot gold is trading around $2,300 per ounce after hitting a record $2,449.89 on May 20, gaining more than 11% so far this year.

"There are lots of reasons driving gold right now..., but one of the major factors is China," Ruth Crowell, CEO of the London Bullion Market Association, told Reuters on the sidelines of the Asia Pacific Precious Metals conference in Singapore.

"Usually China and Japan have been budget shoppers, but given the state of the economy, real estate challenges and equity markets, gold is a safe choice... I think gold is going to be of interest for some time."

Central banks across the globe, especially China, have been ramping up reserves held in gold due to currency depreciation and geopolitical and economic risks.

Bullion is traditionally known as a favoured hedge against geopolitical and economic risks, thriving in a low-interest rate environment.

"Physical demand for gold is strong, but we have not seen retail investment demand coming in yet like exchange-traded funds, demand from the United States...I see prices reaching $2,600 - $2,700 very easily this year," said Amar Singh, Head of Metals - Asia Pacific and Middle East at StoneX. READ MORE

More companies announce bankruptcies, shutter operations, citing inflation -The Center Square

The consequences of sustained inflation are taking their toll. While consumers have been feeling the pinch for some time now, retailers are now the victims of this "higher for longer" inflationary period; and they are beginning to fall like dominoes. As the dollar continues to erode, and more and more Americans have to tighten their belts to the bare essentials, prepare for more news of decades and centuries-old companies having to close their doors forever.

by Bethany Blankley

More companies are declaring bankruptcy and shutting down operations, citing inflation and high costs. Inflation and the economy remains a top issue among all voters, according to a recent The Center Square Voters' Voice Poll.

Retailers are closing nearly 3,200 stores this year, according to a recent analysis from CoreSight Research. The closures are a 24% increase from 2023.

U.S. drug stores and pharmacy closures led to 8 million square feet of shuttered retail space this year, the research company said. It also notes that retailers are losing inventory and customers due to retail theft. “Retail shrink” is closely connected to “organized retail crime,” it notes.

Out of the 3,200 being closed, the majority are being closed by roughly 30 retailers, with Family Dollar closing the most of over 600, according to the data, CBS News reported .

Tupperware is the latest to announce it's permanently closing its last operating production plant in the U.S. in Hemingway, South Carolina. All of its 148 workers will be laid off, the first in September, followed by others in waves through next January. Tupperware announced its plans last week, stating it would continue to produce its products in a plant in Lerma, Mexico. READ MORE

Russia Makes Major Announcement About BRICS Currency -Watcher.Guru

Russia has announced that they have encountered a few speed bumps in their quest to establish a BRICS currency and de-dollarize the globe; but rest assured, these setbacks have not dampened their resolve. If anything these hurdles have made their mission of dethroning the dollar more focused.

by Vinod Dsouza

Russia is all set to host the BRICS+ Forum 2024 meeting on June 21 and a delegation of 21 countries, including 200 mayors will attend the summit. The forum is held in the Kazan region of Russia where the alliance is looking to connect with leaders of the grassroots levels. On the heels of the summit, Russia’s Deputy Foreign Minister Sergei Ryabkov provided the latest update about the forming of the BRICS currency.

Ryabkov made a major announcement that the idea of a BRICS currency to challenge the US dollar has not been shelved. However, he explained that the alliance is facing challenges in the implementation of the upcoming currency. Despite the obstacles, Ryabkov revealed that the currency formation will be decided in the upcoming BRICS summit in October. “I would not say that this idea (BRICS currency) has been shelved,” said Ryabkov. “But this does not mean that this idea has been postponed,” he said. Ryabkov revealed that the bloc aims to provide an update on BRICS currency in less than a year.

He confirmed that the formation of a BRICS currency will be kick-started faster than expected. “Quite bold, quite innovative scheme in this area will be worked out. And in a future that is not calculated in years and decades, but much faster,” he said. READ MORE

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6.18.24 - Thousands of Americans are Going “Off Grid”

Gold last traded at $2,329 an ounce. Silver at $29.54 an ounce.

EDITOR'S NOTE: There has been no shortage of upheaval in the economy over the last several years. As a result, there has been a considerable rise in Americans wanting to go off the grid; the number of those who consider themselves preppers has doubled in the US since 2017. Given the world's volatility, a little prepping may go a long way.

Hundreds Of Thousands Of Americans Are Going “Off Grid” In Anticipation Of What Is Coming -The Economic Collapse

As our society descends into chaos, vast numbers of people are choosing to pull the plug and walk away. Of course it is nearly impossible to completely escape the ubiquitous madness that is seemingly all around us, but many are finding that an “off grid” lifestyle gives them the best opportunity to insulate themselves as much as possible. When you become less dependent on the system, what happens to the system has less of an impact on you. Unfortunately, it appears that our system is heading into a full-blown meltdown, and a significant portion of the population is feverishly making preparations in anticipation of what is coming.

According to Reuters, it has been estimated that there are now approximately 20 million “preppers” in the United States…

Brook Morgan surveyed booths at the “Survival & Prepper Show” in Colorado that were stocked with boxes of ammunition, mounds of trauma medical kits, and every type of knife imaginable.

A self-described “30-year-old lesbian from Indiana,” Morgan is one of a new breed of Americans getting ready to survive political upheaval and natural catastrophes, a pursuit that until recently was largely associated with far-right movements such as white nationalists since the 1980s. READ MORE

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6.17.24 - Nvidia, Apple and GameStop: The Entire Stock Market

Gold last traded at $2,319 an ounce. Silver at $29.47 an ounce.

EDITOR'S NOTE: If you were to listen to the talking heads on Wall Street, you'd likely be convinced that everything is coming up roses in the stock market. According to this author, whatever "strength" exists is these few stocks controlling the averages. The rest of the market? It should be a major concern.

Nvidia, Apple And GameStop Are The Entire Stock Market Right Now…And That's Dangerous -ZeroHedge

Submitted by QTR's Fringe Finance

Everybody knows it but nobody is giving it any serious consideration: the entire market is being driven by Nvidia, Apple and even GameStop. And when one, if not all three of these names starts to experience some selling, they are likely taking the whole market with it.

I have been making note of the fact that Apple and Nvidia could be the market's black swans for the better part of a year now. And forget about cash on the sidelines eventually drying up as a result of savings running out, the market is also not taking into account multiple looming red flags for these names.

Zero Hedge has been all over the story of "bad" market breadth that no one on Wall Street seems to want to notice or talk about out loud. They wrote on X today: Forget about the Mag 7: it's all about the Top 3 where it is now daily race who can buyback the most stock.

For Apple, the company remains in the crosshairs of a massive antitrust investigation, the likes of which threw a cold blanket on Microsoft for the better part of a decade in the early 2000s. This is a very real risk that looms under the surface of the company's buybacks, which are likely a large portion of the bid now. The company's most recent 'innovation', the Vision Pro has also all but disappeared from public discourse after receiving tepid reviews.

Also, Apple and Nvidia share something in common: their valuations, at 33x and 77x ttm earnings, respectively, are extremely aggressive. There is a far better case for an air pocket under these valuations than there is over them. So on top of 5.5% rates, bone dry consumer savings, record high credit card debt, unmarked commercial real estate books and continued debilitating inflation, there's valuation risk. READ MORE

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6.14.24 - $3,000/oz gold

Gold last traded at $2,332 an ounce. Silver at $29.54 an ounce.

EDITOR'S NOTE: We began 2024 with some fringe forecasts of $3,000/oz gold by year's end; at the time, this seemed optimistic. Now here we are at the half-way mark of the year and $3,000/oz is being regarded as an inevitability, it's just a matter of when.

Gold prices likely to reach as high as $3,000/oz over the next 12 months: Citi -Investing.com

by Vahid Karaahmetovic

Gold prices could surge up to $3,000 over the next 12 months, Citi analysts said, as a combination of strong physical demand, central bank purchases, and macroeconomic factors continue to support a bullish outlook for the yellow metal.

“The gold price path is unlikely to be linear, but average prices should trend higher in 2024 and 2025,” Citi analysts wrote in a note.

“We see the market supported well above $2,000-2,200/oz and regularly testing nominal ATHs into end-2024,” before surging to $3,000 in 2025, the firm added.

Several key factors underpin this bullish outlook.

Firstly, the market’s asymmetric risk skew has already demonstrated resilience, with gold prices rallying to $2,400 per ounce despite a strong US dollar, high interest rates, and robust equity markets.

“A negative turn in US growth exceptionalism should be positive for gold, enhancing bids for duration and haven assets, all-else equal,” the note continues. READ MORE

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6.13.24 - Is a crash worse than 1929 on the horizon?

Gold last traded at $2,304 an ounce. Silver at $28.95 an ounce.

EDITOR'S NOTE: We could be looking at the rise before the fall for the S&P 500, this according to Mark Spitznagel. He's referred to as a "Black Swan" investor due to his prediction of a devastating market downturn to come. He's not alone, as there seems to be trouble brewing in the equity markets.

'Black Swan' investor sees the S&P 500 jumping another 12% — followed by the worst crash since 1929 -Markets Insider

By Theron Mohamed

A "Black Swan" investor expects the S&P 500 to climb another 12% and breach 6,000 points for the first time — and then suffer its worst crash since the Great Depression.

Mark Spitznagel, the founder and chief of Universa Investments, told Business Insider in an email:

"I've been saying this for a year and a half because people got 2022 so incredibly wrong (we're not in the 70s!). The Fed recklessly popped the greatest credit bubble in human history and now as people realize that the Fed needs to about-face, they're going to get increasingly juked the other way in a face-ripping rally. At the point of euphoria — which is coming — the high will be in and the market will crash worse than the global financial crisis."

He added: "What matters more than my views on this are how Universa's clients are positioned for it — for both a face-ripping rally and for the worst crash since 1929."

Universa specializes in protecting portfolios against extreme and unpredictable "tail risks" in markets. The firm's scientific advisor is Nassim Taleb, the author of "The Black Swan: The Impact of the Highly Improbable."

The S&P has soared by nearly 30% from its October lows to trade at record highs of more than 5,300 points. Investors have piled into stocks like Nvidia — up over 150% since the start of this year — as they wager Big Tech will be big winners from the artificial intelligence boom. READ MORE

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6.12.24 - Dollar and euro trade halted on Russia’s biggest exchange

Gold last traded at $2,318 an ounce. Silver at $29.58 an ounce.

Bond giant PIMCO sees another wave of bank failures coming as commercial mortgage trouble mounts -Markets Insider

The regional banks are indeed in trouble, and the mainstream media are finally admitting it. 120-130 regional banks have high concentrations of CRE. With high rates, low profitability and drastically reduced values; there is really no way out.

by Filip De Mott

A "very high" concentration of distressed commercial real estate loans will be drive another spate of bank failures, Pimco's global head of real estate, John Murray, told Bloomberg.

"The real wave of distress is just starting," Murray said.

Ever since interest rates spiked two years ago, heavy attention has been paid to commercial real estate as doubt grows over property owners' ability to refinance debt.

Defaults have risen across the sector amid higher borrowing costs and slumping demand, with the latter especially true for office buildings, which have struggled against remote work trends.

This week, Fitch Ratings revised its office delinquency forecasts up to 8.4% and 11% for 2024 and 2025, respectively.

The main lenders to the sector have been mid-sized regional banks, and worries of fallout have intensified on Wall Street. According to Bloomberg, regional lenders who jumped into real estate have watched assets fall to a fraction of their peak value. READ MORE

Dollar and euro trade halted on Russia’s biggest exchange due to new U.S. sanctions -CNBC

This would be unsettling news on its own; but this is on the heels of the BRICS announcing it is the final stages of its de-dollarizarion movement. The new BRICS payment system has been confirmed and will now be a global competitor of the US dollar.

by Reuters

New U.S. sanctions against Russia will shut down trading in dollars and euros on its leading financial marketplace, the Moscow Exchange, the bourse and the central bank said on Wednesday.

“Due to the introduction of restrictive measures by the United States against the Moscow Exchange Group, exchange trading and settlements of deliverable instruments in U.S. dollars and euros are suspended,” the central bank said.

It added that it would use over-the-counter trading data to set official exchange rates for the dollar and euro.

The bank rushed out a statement, despite a public holiday in Russia, to reassure people that their dollar and euro bank deposits were secure.

“Companies and individuals can continue to buy and sell U.S. dollars and euros through Russian banks. All funds in U.S. dollars and euros in the accounts and deposits of citizens and companies remain safe,” it said.

The Moscow Exchange, Russia’s biggest bourse, also said share trading and money market trades settled in dollars and euros would cease. READ MORE

Consumer Prices Hold At Record Highs - Up 20% Since Biden Elected -ZeroHedge

Our biggest takeaway from this article ... overall, prices are up over 19.5% since Bidenomics was unleashed. The administration may keep claiming inflation is slowing, but those of us who buy groceries know the opposite to be true.

The headline consumer price index was unchanged MoM in May - the smallest change since July 2022 - just less than the +0.1% MoM expected. On a YoY basis, headline CPI rose 3.3% (less than the 3.4% exp) - but very much stuck in a range well above the 2% target for over year now...

Energy was the biggest drag on the headline CPI MoM...(Gasoline prices tumbled 3.6% in May from April, one key reason why the headline CPI was flat on the month.)

Core CPI rose 0.2% MoM (below the 0.3% exp) pulling the YoY change down to 3.4% (from 3.6% and below the 3.5% exp). That is the lowest Core CPI YoY since April 2021...

Core CPI has not had a down-month since President Biden was elected.

Core Services inflation slowed notably MoM...

The shelter index increased 0.4 percent in May and was the largest factor in the monthly increase in the index for all items less food and energy. VIEW CHARTS AND READ MORE

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6.11.24 - UBS: Buy the Dips

Gold last traded at $2,316 an ounce. Silver at $29.28 an ounce.

EDITOR'S NOTE: Trying to time markets when it comes to buying and selling can be difficult to get right; however, UBS is recommending to their clients to buy the dips. Their analysts see geopolitical tensions, under-reporting by the IMF and the upcoming US election all as reasons to have an allocation in gold.

UBS: Gold dips to be bought, not sold -Yahoo! Finance

In a note Monday, UBS analysts advised that recent dips in the gold price are opportunities to buy, not sell. The firm's note follows a more than 3% decline in the yellow metal on Friday after the latest US employment data.

Employment and earnings data sprung positive surprises. Key factors to watch this week include the May US Consumer Price Index (CPI) and the Federal Reserve meeting.

Furthermore, China's reported lack of gold reserve additions in May sparked some concern. however, UBS highlights potential under-reporting by the International Monetary Fund (IMF). They reiterate their previous recommendation of buying gold on dips around $2,250-$2,300 per ounce.

UBS acknowledges that near-term upside surprises in the CPI could put downward pressure on gold prices. However, they believe the strong job market data may not reflect the whole picture, pointing to a rise in the unemployment rate and a decline in the job openings-to-unemployment ratio.

Looking ahead, UBS expects the Fed to adjust its projections to reflect two rate cuts in 2024, with inflation still moderating. They maintain a base case of a rate cut in September.

Central bank gold buying remains a factor, with Poland adding to their reserves in May. UBS anticipates total demand reaching 950-1,000 metric tons in 2024. Given ongoing geopolitical tensions and the upcoming US elections, UBS sees gold as a valuable portfolio hedge, recommending an allocation of around 5% for a USD-balanced portfolio. READ MORE

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6.10.24 - 'Dirty Little Secret Called Zelle'

Gold last traded at $2,310 an ounce. Silver at $29.72 an ounce.

EDITOR'S NOTE: As we continue to move forward into a completely digital world, more and more reasons to be wary are coming to light. This most recent instance involves Zelle, a payment platform used by many. Does the convenience outweigh the risk?

JPMorgan Chase, Bank of America and Wells Fargo Customers Lose $456,000,000 in One Year To 'Dirty Little Secret Called Zelle': Senate Committee Chairman -The Daily Hodl

JPMorgan Chase, Bank of America and Wells Fargo are failing to protect customers from hundreds of millions of dollars in scams and fraud per year, according to a US Senate panel.

At a hearing held by the Permanent Subcommittee on Investigations, Democratic Senator and Chairman Richard Blumenthal said the banking giants’ customers submitted claims to recover $456 million in 2022 – all due to fraud and scams on the payments network Zelle.

“The banks of America have a dirty little secret. It’s called Zelle…

Zelle markets itself as ‘A fast and easy way to send and receive money.’ But, as this Committee has found, a fast and easy way to lose money is often what happens on Zelle.”

Senator Blumenthal says Zelle – a network owned by seven US banks including Chase, BofA and Wells Fargo – creates a veil of security while leaving customers far too vulnerable to fraud.

“Zelle transfers are nearly instant and irreversible, and by the time a consumer knows they’ve been scammed, usually it’s too late to do anything about it – at least according to Zelle and according to the banks that own, control, and in effect operate Zelle…

Zelle and the banks that own it offer to customers the appearance of the trust they feel they deserve. But the risks there are real and present, and they simply are failing to protect consumers in the way that they deserve.” READ MORE

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6.7.24 - Banking Crisis, Stage Two

Gold last traded at $2,305 an ounce. Silver at $29.30 an ounce.

EDITOR'S NOTE: Many banking experts warned the banking crisis of last Spring was far from over, it appears they were correct. Which bank will be the first domino to fall in stage two? Will it be yours? All we can do is prepare well for what lies ahead; Mr. Rickards suggests holding gold to preserve your wealth.

Banking Crisis, Stage Two -Daily Reckoning

by James Rickards

I’m sure you recall the banking crisis of March to May 2023.

It began with the collapse of the little-known Silvergate Bank on March 8. This was followed the next day by the collapse of the much larger Silicon Valley Bank (SVB) on March 9. SVB had over $120 billion in uninsured deposits.

Bank deposits over $250,000 each are not covered by FDIC insurance. Those depositors stood to lose all their money over the insured amount. This would have led to the collapse of hundreds of startup tech businesses in Silicon Valley that had placed their working capital on deposit at SVB.

There were also much larger businesses such as Cisco and at least one large cryptocurrency exchange that had billions of dollars on deposit there. Those businesses would have taken huge write-downs based on the size of their uninsured deposits.

On March 9, the FDIC said that indeed the excess deposits were uninsured, and depositors would get "receivership certificates" of uncertain value and zero liquidity instead.

By March 11, the FDIC reversed course and said all deposits would be insured. The Federal Reserve intervened and said they would take any U.S. Treasury securities from member banks in exchange for par value in cash even if the bonds were only worth 80% of par (which most were).

That Sunday night they also closed Signature Bank, a New York-based bank with crypto links. The damage wasn't done. On March 19, the Swiss National Bank forced a merge of UBS and Credit Suisse, one of the largest banks in the world. Credit Suisse was on the edge of insolvency.

Finally, on May 1, First Republic Bank, with over $225 billion in assets, was ordered closed by the government and sold to JPMorgan.

It was the mother of all bailouts and seemed to leave stock market investors unfazed. The issue was, and is: Once you've guaranteed every deposit and agreed to finance every bond at par value, what's left in your bag of tricks? What can you do in the next crisis that you haven't already done — except nationalize the banks? READ MORE

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6.6.24 - 8 warning signs of a stock market bubble

Gold last traded at $2,375 an ounce. Silver at $31.31 an ounce.

EDITOR'S NOTE: There never seems to be a shortage of those who suggest that a market - any market - is going to go up while, at the same time, there are just as many suggesting it's going down. At the end of the day, does anyone really know? All we can do is look at history as well as market fundamentals to make an educated guess for the future.

There are 8 warning signs of a stock market bubble and 6 of them have already flashed, UBS says -Yahoo! Finance

by Matthew Fox

There's been a lot of talk about the stock market being in a bubble over the past year as hype for generative artificial intelligence drives stock prices to record highs.

In a recent note from UBS, strategist Andrew Garthwaite outlined the eight warning signs of a stock market bubble — and according to Garthwaite, six of them are already flashing.

That means the stock market isn't in a bubble yet, but could be soon.

"The upside risk is that we end up in a bubble. If we are in such a situation, then we believe it is similar to 1997 not 1999," Garthwaite said.

That's important because stock market bubbles often lead to a painful 80% decline once it pops, but Garthwaite says we're not there just yet.

"We only invest for the bubble thesis if we are in 1997 not 1999 (which we think we are)," Garthwaite said.

These are the eight stock market bubble warning signs, according to Garthwaite. READ MORE

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6.5.24 - Almost Everyone Is Struggling

Gold last traded at $2,356 an ounce. Silver at $30.06 an ounce.

Hackers Targeting 1,500 Banks and Their Customers in Push To Drain Accounts Across 60 Countries: Report - The Daily Hodl

Hackers are at it again. According to this report, they're in the midst of a global effort to go after personal bank accounts. We can add this to the already long list of reasons why modern banking feels nowhere near safe.

by Alex Richardson

Black hat hackers have reportedly unleashed malicious software targeting over 1,500 banks and their customers worldwide.

Security researchers at IBM say a revamped version of the Grandoreiro banking trojan has just rolled out, enabling attackers to perform banking fraud in 60 countries.

The malware allows attackers to send email notices that appear to be urgent government requests for payments.

Users are told they can click a link to view an invoice or a fee and when they do, a malicious file is downloaded and executed in the background.

Once installed, the malware searches for and interacts with banking apps to facilitate fraudulent transactions.

Infected users also have their keystrokes logged and screen captured in a push to capture banking credentials, usernames, and other sensitive data needed to crack and drain accounts.

“[The malware is] enabling attackers to perform banking fraud in over 60 countries including regions of Central and South America, Africa, Europe, and the Indo-Pacific." READ MORE

Little By Little, The Economy Has Declined To A Point Where Almost Everyone Is Struggling -The Economic Collapse

There have been numerous reports over the last few years detailing the severe toll today's economy has taken on American households and their standard of living. Who is this impacting? As the title of this article puts it, little by little ... everyone.

It happened so gradually that a lot of people didn’t even realize what was happening. The cost of living just kept rising faster than paychecks were, and little by little our standard of living just kept going down. Now we have reached a stage where the ultra-wealthy are thriving but almost everyone else is struggling. For most people, it is a real fight just to pay the bills from month to month. The majority of the population is deep in debt, and meanwhile the cost of just about everything is going up and up. Millions of Americans feel like they are drowning financially, and there is no easy way out. Sadly, many of them don’t even realize that the game was designed to get them on to a hamster wheel and keep them running for as long as possible.

When I was a kid, the United States had a very large and very prosperous middle class.

Life certainly wasn’t perfect in those days, but just about everyone that I knew could afford to live a comfortable middle class lifestyle.

Sadly, now everything has changed.

According to a survey that was just conducted by Seven Letter Insight, 65 percent of Americans “who earn more than 200% of the federal poverty level” admit that they are struggling financially…

In the large poll of 2,500 adults, 65% of people who earn more than 200% of the federal poverty level — that’s at least $60,000 for a family of four, often considered middle class — said they are struggling financially.

If 65 percent of those that “earn more than 200% of the federal poverty level” are struggling, what about those that earn less than that?

Needless to say, almost all of them are struggling. READ MORE

JPMorgan Chase To Launch Biometric Payments Next Year, Enabling ‘Pay With Your Face’ Shopping: Report - The Daily Hodl

Is this a good thing or a bad thing? 'Pay with your face' doesn't seem like much of a stretch in today's digital age, but is it a safe thing given the state of modern banking?

JPMorgan Chase is reportedly preparing to launch a biometric payments system for the masses.

The banking giant is preparing a “broad rollout” of an authentication system that will allow retail shoppers to pay with their face or palm next year, reports American Banker.

The system is the result of two pilot projects with the California-based biometrics company PopID.

JPMorgan, which already provides point-of-sale solutions to merchants, says it ran pilot tests for the system at brick-and-mortar stores in the US as well as internally at an office cafeteria.

Jean-Marc Thienpont, head of omnichannel and biometric solutions at JPMorgan Payments, says the bank believes the system will reduce checkout time and boost security.

“At its heart, biometrics-based payments empowers our merchant clients to deliver a better customer payment experience.

We are a trusted payments provider and financial institution worldwide, and fully equipped to manage the highly secure identification points that power biometrics solutions. The evolution of consumer technology has created new expectations for shoppers, and merchants need to be ready to adapt to these new expectations.”

A 2023 survey conducted by PYMNTS found 28% of consumers have used facial recognition for an online purchase in the last 30 days. READ MORE

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6.4.24 - 97 Countries Prepare To Attend BRICS 2024

Gold last traded at $2,327 an ounce. Silver at $29.50 an ounce.

EDITOR'S NOTE: 97 countries are expected to attend the upcoming BRICS gathering; that's literally half the countries in the world. If there was a question as to whether or not BRICS is the real deal, I would say it most assuredly is.

97 Countries Prepare To Attend BRICS 2024 in June in Russia -Watcher.Guru

by Vinod Dsouza

A total of 97 countries have confirmed their presence in the BRICS 2024 Games in June this month. The event will be hosted by Russian President Vladimir Putin in the Kazan region between June 12 to 24.

“97 countries had already confirmed their participation,” said Russia’s Prime Minister Dmitry Chernyshenko. The minister added that the BRICS 2024 Games are an integral part of the development of the country. “The BRICS Games 2024, which were ordered to be organized following the decree of the Russian President Vladimir Putin, are an important part of our country’s chairmanship in this organization,” he said.

He added that all eyes will be on the BRICS Games in 2024. “The upcoming tournament must be organized at the highest possible level,” he said. The sporting event will host 20 different sports with 97 countries participating in Russia.

Apart from the 97 countries that are participating in the BRICS Games 2024, more than 40 nations are also looking to join the alliance. In 2024 alone, seven new countries have expressed their interest and submitted formal applications to enter the bloc. Read here to know the list of seven countries that have applied to join BRICS in 2024.

The 16th BRICS summit will also be held in Russia’s Kazan region in October this year. The alliance will decide on the prospects of the applications in the upcoming BRICS summit. All decisions will be taken on a consensus basis after weighing the pros and cons of a particular application. READ MORE

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6.3.24 - Gold prices are 'dramatically outperforming'

Gold last traded at $2,325 an ounce. Silver at $30.31 an ounce.

EDITOR'S NOTE: Gold continues to capture the eye and the affection of the American investor as it continues to rally, setting new highs along the way. It's doing so even given some economic factors that would traditionally slow down such gains.

Gold prices are 'dramatically outperforming': Macquarie -investing.com

While the expectations for rate cuts have diminished lately amid persistently high inflation, gold prices have continued to exhibit strength due to various underlying positive factors, Macquarie commodity strategists said in a report.

The research firm observed that gold prices have reached new highs, driven by dynamics other than U.S. interest rates and the dollar. The yellow metal has benefited from a broader risk-on sentiment in the metals markets.

Gold prices have been outperforming across various asset classes and on a macroeconomic level. It is implicitly trading on its reputation as a safe asset with no counterparty risk, rather than the opportunity cost associated with holding a zero-yield asset.

Moreover, gold prices have been supported by risk assets. Macquarie highlighted that central bank buying of gold is still tracking above reported levels, suggesting sustained institutional interest in the precious metal.

The derivative markets for gold remain long, especially when measured in U.S. dollar notional amounts rather than in lots. However, the market positions are believed to be less overstretched following two recent price corrections.

Trading volumes on the Shanghai Futures Exchange (SHFE) have settled down after a significant increase in April, but the China "arbitrage" remains high, indicating continued interest and activity in the gold market from Chinese traders.

The resilience of gold prices, despite a stronger dollar supported by relative U.S. monetary policy divergence, indicates that investors are looking beyond just the U.S. rate market when it comes to gold. READ MORE

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5.31.24 - Will Gov't Spending Trigger Major Economic Fallout?

Gold last traded at $2,325 an ounce. Silver at $30.31 an ounce.

EDITOR'S NOTE: There has been no shortage of financial minds forecasting severe market downturns ahead, time will tell if they are correct. The government's relentless spending might just be the match that lights the fire.

JPMorgan Chase CEO Warns ‘Extraordinary’ Government Spending Will Trigger Major Economic Fallout: Report -The Daily Hodl

JPMorgan Chase CEO Jamie Dimon just issued a major warning on where he believes the US economy is heading.

At AllianceBernstein’s Strategic Decisions conference, Dimon said he’s betting unchecked government spending will end in stagflation – the term for a dreaded combination of high inflation, high unemployment and low growth, reports Fortune.

“I look at the amount of fiscal and monetary stimulus that has taken place over the last five years. It has been so extraordinary. How can you tell me it won’t lead to stagflation?

It might not. But I, for one, am quite prepared for it.”

A week ago, at the banking giant’s Global Summit in Shanghai, Dimon told CNBC he also believes the Federal Reserve may not be done raising rates.

“I think inflation is stickier than people think. I think the odds are higher than other people think, mostly because the huge amount of fiscal monetary stimulus is still in the system, and still may be driving some of this liquidity…

I look at the range of outcomes and again, the worst outcome for all of us is what you call stagflation, higher rates, recession. That means corporate profits will go down and we’ll get through all of that.”

Dimon’s economic outlook echoes a warning from JPMorgan’s chief market strategist Marko Kolanovic a few months ago. READ MORE

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5.30.24 - A Vow to Stop Biden Bucks?

Gold last traded at $2,348 an ounce. Silver at $31.97 an ounce.

EDITOR'S NOTE: Swiss America has been warning the public for decades about all of the ways the government wants to take control of your money and how you spend it. A CBDC would usher all of that in, overnight. Some are confident the government would never control or restrict how Americans spend their money; but their track record on the subject certainly doesn't provide much hope. Typically, governments use any power they are given. Maybe not at first, but eventually.

Trump Vows to Stop Biden Bucks -Daily Reckoning

by James Rickards

This past weekend, Donald Trump spoke at the Libertarian Party's national convention. The media are gloating that the crowd booed Trump at times.

But the fact that they gave Trump a cool reception shouldn't come as a surprise. Many libertarians (though not all) are for open borders. Trump wants a border wall. Libertarians doctrinally support unfettered free trade, while Trump believes in tariffs to protect American industries and workers.

But Trump was cheered when he addressed a topic I've been talking about for over two years — central bank digital currencies (CBDCs), or as I call them, Biden Bucks.

Trump pledged that he would block the implementation of CBDCs if elected:

To protect Americans from government tyranny, as your president, I will never allow the creation of a central bank digital currency.

He warned that CBDCs were a "dangerous threat to freedom" and that they would give the government "absolute control" over money.

Whatever you think of Trump personally, he's absolutely correct about CBDCs. I've extensively documented the threats they pose to your freedom and privacy. The federal government would be able to track every purchase you made and punish you if it didn't approve of how you spent your money.

CBDCs are direct liabilities of a central bank. That means they own the money — you don't. With that comes control. They basically give you permission to use that money, but permission can be subject to conditions. READ MORE

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5.29.24 - Corporate Greed Is Not The Cause Of Inflation

Gold last traded at $2,337 an ounce. Silver at $31.97 an ounce.

Zero-Percent-Down Mortgages Return, What Can Go Wrong? -MishTalk

The lessons of 2008 may have already been forgotten. The CEO of United Wholesale Mortgage, Melinda Wilner, is offering up this new program as if it's magnanimous by saying, "Homeownership is something we’re very passionate about." I suspect she is more passionate about her bottom-line. What's not mentioned in their upbeat press appearances is the fine print on the silent second mortgage these buyers will hold; per the UWM website it, "has no minimum monthly payment requirements, a term of 360 months and is fully due as a balloon payment upon the occurrence of either a refinance of the [first mortgage], [or] payoff of the [first mortgage] or the final payment." Buyer beware.

by Mike Shedlock

It's a perfect time to do something really stupid, like offering zero percent down payments on mortgages.

Morningstar reports One of the Biggest U.S. Lenders is Offering 0%-Down-Payment Mortgages for First-Time Home Buyers.

Home buyers will be able to buy a home without putting any money down under a new program launched by United Wholesale Mortgage, one of the largest U.S. mortgage lenders.

The Pontiac, Mich.-based company's new program will be available to first-time home buyers and people earning at or below 80% of an area's median income, the company said in a press release.

UWM (UWMC) will give eligible buyers a second-lien loan of up to $15,000, in the form of down-payment assistance, for 3% of the home's purchase price. The loan will not accrue interest or require a monthly payment.

"Homeownership is something we're very passionate about," Melinda Wilner, chief operating officer at UWM, told MarketWatch.READ MORE

No, Corporate Greed Is Not The Cause Of Inflation-ZeroHedge

It's much easier for our government to point the finger of blame and anger the citizens than to take responsibility for poor policy decisions. The Fed's misguided attempts to right the ship have done nothing but make it sink faster. Blaming corporate greed for this is convenient, especially when most people will believe the lie.

Authored by Lance Roberts via RealInvestmentAdvice.com

Corporate greed is not causing inflation, despite the claims of many on the political left who failed to understand the very basics of economic supply and demand.

"If you take a look at what people have, they have the money to spend. It angers them and angers me that you have to spend more. It's like 20% less for the same price. That's corporate greed. That's corporate greed. And we have got to deal with it. And that's what I'm working on." – President Biden via CNN

Yes, prices have certainly gone up due to inflation. However, that wasn't the fault of corporations. The surge in inflation directly resulted from the supply-to-demand imbalance caused by shutting down the economy (supply) and increasing household purchasing power by sending them checks (demand).

For the majority of Americans who now get their "news" from social media, the uneducated masses now have a new target of hatred for their financial woes – corporate greed.

The problem, as with many of the narratives ramping up the ire of Americans on social media, is it is patently false.

As Michael Maharrey previously penned:

"One simply has to reason through the claim to uncover the absurdity. If corporations can willy-nilly raise prices and enjoy 'excessive' profits, why don’t they do it all the time? Did corporations suddenly get greedy in 2021? And why did the Federal Reserve spend a decade fretting about inflation being 'too low' as it struggled to hit its 2% target? Was there not enough corporate greed before coronavirus?"

When you think about it this way, something else apparently happened.

Let’s begin with Powell’s assessment of the cause of inflation. READ MORE

One Misfortune Away From Insolvency -Daily Reckoning

Precarity - this word so perfectly sums up where we find ourselves today. Many families are stretched to their breaking point financially, add to that the looming stressor of job loss and/or an emergency they cannot afford and you have a recipe for desperation.

by Charles Hugh Smith

We can summarize the changes in our economy over the past two generations with one word: precarity, as life for the bottom 90% of American households has become far more precarious over the past 40 years, despite the rising GDP and "wealth" as measured in phantom capital.

This reality is expressed in the portmanteau word precariat, combining proletariat (someone whose livelihood comes from their labor) and precarious: Outside of government employment, work has become far more precarious.

Where it was still common 40 years ago to work for a company for much or most of one's career and have a private-sector pension, now private-sector pensions have vanished, replaced by self-managed 401(k) funds, and private-sector work is characterized by a series of not just job changes but career changes.

The source of one's livelihood can dry up and blow away almost overnight, and to fill the hole many turn to gig work with zero benefits that saddles the worker with self-employment taxes (15.3% of all earnings, as the "self-employed" gig worker must pay both the employee and the employer shares of Social Security-Medicare payroll taxes).

This isn't true self-employment, of course, as true self-employment means the owner-worker can hope to extract the full value of their labor; in contrast, much of the value of the gig work is skimmed off by corporate platforms (Uber et al.). The gig worker is a precariat wage-slave, not a self-employed owner of their own labor and enterprise. READ MORE

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5.28.24 - Gold Price Prediction: $4,821

Gold last traded at $2,360 an ounce. Silver at $32.08 an ounce.

EDITOR'S NOTE: This recent gold projection is calling for the yellow metal to reach prices of nearly $5,000 an ounce. More and more forecasters are revising their gold price predictions upward. Here's a deeper dive as to why.

Gold Analyst Stoeferle Confirms His Long Term Gold Price Target Of $4,821-Investing Haven

In the latest edition of his study, released on May 17th, 2024, Stoeferle re-iterates his method and data used to derive his gold price target of $4,821 for 2030.

Ronald Stoeferle is the lead analyst of the respected In Gold We Trust, the most comprehensive and detailed gold market study available on the market.

He sticks to his gold price forecast of USD $4,821 by the end of 2030, which he initially introduced in 2020.

Achieving this price target requires an annualized return of just under 12%. By way of comparison, the return in the 2000s was over 14% p.a., compared with around 27% p.a. in the 1970s.

He continues:

Loyal readers will remember our gold price forecast model that we published in the In Gold We Trust report 2020. At that time, we calculated a price target of just above USD 4,800 by the end of 2030, using the gold coverage ratio as a key input factor.

This is the chart that appeared on page 410 of In Gold We Trust 2024: VIEW FULL CHART AND READ MORE

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5.24.24 - House Passes CBDC Ban

Gold last traded at $2,334 an ounce. Silver at $30.28 an ounce.

EDITOR'S NOTE: Stop the presses! A CBDC now facing a major roadblock as the House votes to stop banks from implementing one. The question however; is this move too little, too late? The notion of banks using digital currencies has been growing with little to no resistance until now, even though the Fed has assured us they had no intention to delve into the digital currency world. Only time will tell.

US House Passes Bill Banning Federal Reserve From Launching Central Bank Digital Currency -Daily Hodl

The US House of Representatives just passed a bill aimed at preventing the Federal Reserve from launching a Central Bank Digital Currency (CBDC) without Congressional authorization.

Republican Majority Whip Tom Emmer sponsored H.R. 5403, known as the CBDC Anti-Surveillance State Act, with the stated goal of protecting Americans' right to privacy.

"My legislation ensures that the United States' digital currency policy remains in the hands of the American people so that any development of digital money reflects our values of privacy, individual sovereignty, and free market competitiveness.

This is what the future global digital economy needs. We are proud to have led this effort and thank my colleagues for their support."

The bill passed 216 to 192 along party lines, backed by 213 Republicans.

House Democrat Maxine Waters led the charge against the bill, calling it anti-innovative and stating it would hinder the Federal Reserve’s research and authority.

"[H.R. 5403] would stifle that research and prevent us from moving forward even if it means that the dollar loses its status as the world’s reserve currency and even if it means that U.S. citizens lose out on faster, cheaper and simpler payments." READ MORE

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5.23.24 - Incoming Commercial Real Estate Crisis

Gold last traded at $2,331 an ounce. Silver at $30.15 an ounce.

EDITOR'S NOTE: It's no secret that regional banks are already on shaky ground; but it appears nothing is being done to shore them up for the next wave of collapses that will be brought on by distressed commercial real estate loans. The powers that be seem to hope they can kick the can down the road long enough that rates will come down and inflation will ease, but what if they are wrong? And what if this house of cards caves in before we ever get to the other side?

The Incoming Commercial Real Estate Crisis No One Seems Prepared For -Zero Hedge

Authored by Kevin Stocklin via The Epoch Times

It has been a year since a string of U.S. regional bank failures, together with the collapse of global heavyweight Credit Suisse, caused many to fear that a major financial crisis was imminent.

But, by the summer of 2023, the panicked withdrawals by frightened depositors largely subsided.

In February, however, New York Community Bank (NYCB) appeared to resurrect the crisis when it announced $2.4 billion in losses, fired its CEO, and faced credit downgrades from rating agencies Fitch and Moodys.

In what has become a familiar tale for U.S. regional banks, NYCB’s share price plummeted by 60 percent virtually overnight, erasing billions of dollars from its market value, and its depositors fled en masse.

“I think that there’s more to come,” Peter Earle, a securities analyst and senior research fellow at the American Institute for Economic Research, told The Epoch Times.

Underlying this year’s turbulence is the fact that many regional banks are sitting on large portfolios of distressed commercial real estate (CRE) loans. according to Mr. Earle. And many are attempting to cope through a process called “extend and pretend,” in which they grant insolvent borrowers more time to pay in hopes that things will get better.

“There is trouble out there, and most of it probably won’t be realized because of the ability to roll some of these loans forward and buy a few more years, and maybe things will recover by then,” he said.

“But all it does is it kicks the can down the road, and it basically means a more fragile financial system in the medium term.” READ MORE

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5.22.24 - The 'Old Money' Secret to Wealth

Gold last traded at $2,380 an ounce. Silver at $30.86 an ounce.

‘Perfect storm’ steers gold to another record high; silver jumps -CNBC

Central banks, countries and investors alike continue to turn to gold. The problems facing the US economy are not short term and the global economy can see the writing on the wall.

(Reuters)

Spot gold rose 0.9% to $2,435.96 per ounce after hitting a record high of $2,449.89 earlier in the session.

U.S. gold futures settled 0.9% higher to $2,438.50.

“Inflation is sticky, we may see some whipsaws in the inflation data, but also the burdening debt in the U.S., there is a cause to be diversified away from that too. So it’s this perfect storm that’s kept the market elevated in gold,” said Daniel Pavilonis, senior market strategist at RJO Futures.

Data last week showed that U.S. consumer prices increased less than expected in April, suggesting that inflation resumed its downward trend, boosting expectations for a September interest rate cut.

Lower rates reduce the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding bullion, which also benefits from uncertainty in the market.

RJO’s Pavilonis expects gold to propel to near $2,500 in the short term as there’s a fear of missing out from gold’s rally. “There’s a lot of non-traders that are calling up places(brokers) ... to buy futures or to take physical delivery.”

Gold has also been supported by increased increased holdings in China’s central bank. READ MORE

The “Old Money” Secret to Wealth -Daily Reckoning

How does "old money" wealth get passed down through the generations without being wiped out? They have followed the investment secret bestowed by those who came before them: “a third, a third and a third”. One third in land, one third in art, one third in gold. The moral of this story is really just to be diversified but that includes being diversified in assets that last.

by James Rickards

I believe that we’re heading for another liquidity crisis or financial crisis. That doesn’t mean it’ll happen tomorrow, but there are disturbing signs that it might not be too far off.

It doesn’t mean the world’s going to end. But investors who aren’t prepared could see large portions of their portfolios wiped out. It could take years to rebuild them, and many investors just don’t have the time to recoup those losses.

But how do you prepare? You might want to start by looking at how “old money” preserves its wealth. Today I want to explore that.

On a cool evening in the fall of 2012, I joined a private dinner in Rome with a small group of the world’s wealthiest investors.

We dined at Palazzo Colonna, a private palace that’s been owned by one family for 31 generations or 900 years. My dinner companions were mainly Europeans, some Asians and relatively few from the United States.

Amid marble, gold, paintings and palatial architecture, I mused on the meaning of old money compared with the new money crowd that congregated for cocktails near the Connecticut home in which I lived at the time. READ MORE

Americans are going into debt to buy groceries. Here’s why those balances can be difficult to pay down -CNBC

This headline should be shocking but it's sadly just the heartbreaking norm. The mess the Fed has made is not without victims. Americans are going into debt to feed their families, and that debt is even harder to pay off as the value of their dollar declines every day.

by Lorie Konish

Many shoppers have been shocked by what they pay at the grocery store checkout.

Food prices shot up amid broader inflation in recent years, and remain high for many staples.

As consumers struggle with elevated food costs that can lead to unpaid debt balances.

Many families dipped into their savings or turned to credit cards, buy now, pay later installment programs or payday loans to pay for groceries in 2023, according to new research from the Urban Institute.

While those payment methods can be a lifeline, they may also lead to financial instability.

“The rate of price increases is slowing, but households are still paying more today for groceries than they did last year,” said Kassandra Martinchek, senior research associate at the Urban Institute.

“That might mean that folks are having to rely on liquidity sources other than their income to be able to meet their very basic needs, their food needs,” she said.

It’s not just those who are most financially disadvantaged who are experiencing these challenges, according to Martinchek. READ MORE

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5.21.24 - Metals Rally Continues

Gold last traded at $2,421 an ounce. Silver at $31.97 an ounce.

EDITOR'S NOTE: Metals prices continue to climb at an impressive rate, with gold reaching yet another record high. The fundamentals driving demand look to be strong over the next 12 months so get in while you can. Give us a call today to secure your position.

Gold, copper hit records, silver nears 12-year high as metals rally continues -Yahoo! Finance

by Ines Ferré

Gold touched a record high on Monday and silver prices neared 12-year highs as this year's rally in the metals market continues.

Gold futures traded hands just above $2,450 per ounce during early morning trading, breaking previous nominal highs reached in April before paring gains. Silver also surged to hover just above $32 per ounce Monday, its highest price since late 2012.

Gold has rallied in recent months on expectations of a Fed rate cut this year, coupled with strong demand stemming from central banks and Asian buyers. And silver has outperformed gold in recent weeks, gaining 35% this year against gold's 18% rise.

Copper prices also hit new highs Monday, and analysts suspect a short squeeze has sent prices for the commodity soaring in recent days. However, strong demand fundamentals are expected to continue over the next year, said Michael Widmer, global head of metals research at Bank of America.

"Overall, I think the structural bull case for the coper market remains in place," Widmer told Yahoo Finance on Monday. "This is firmly a buy the dip market." READ MORE

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5.20.24 - Paulson and Burry: Betting on Gold

Gold last traded at $2,427 an ounce. Silver at $31.86 an ounce.

EDITOR'S NOTE: Two well-known investors are taking advantage of what they believe to be a strong investment play in the accelerating gold market. These gentlemen are well known for their prediction of the 2008 housing crash and now see the stars aligning for a continued rise in gold prices.

Michael Burry and John Paulson hit the jackpot when they called the housing crash. Now they're betting on gold. -Yahoo! Finance

by Theron Mohamed

It turns out Michael Burry isn't only a metalhead when it comes to music.

The investor of "The Big Short" fame purchased about 441,000 units of the Sprott Physical Gold Trust last quarter. The trust holds virtually all of its assets in physical gold bullion.

Burry's Scion Asset Management revealed its first-quarter holdings in a regulatory filing this week. The gold bet was worth $7.6 million at the end of March, ranking it as Scion's fifth-largest position with a 7.4% weighting in the firm's $103 million US stock portfolio.

If the wager remains intact, it was valued at $8.1 million as of Friday, per Sprott's bullion calculator.

Buying gold is a surprising move from Burry, a value investor known for sniffing out dirt-cheap stocks — including GameStop years before it became a meme stock.

He's also bet against high flyers like Elon Musk's Tesla, Cathie Wood's Ark Innovation ETF , and a microchip ETF that counts Nvidia as its top holding.

Burry shot to fame for predicting and profiting from the collapse of the mid-2000s housing bubble. The saga was chronicled in the book and movie "The Big Short."

John Paulson made his name with a similar wager, immortalized in a book titled "The Greatest Trade Ever." Like Burry, the Paulson & Co. chief appears to be bullish on gold and other precious metals. READ MORE

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5.17.24 - Silver Outlook to Q1 2025

Gold last traded at $2,411 an ounce. Silver at $30.94 an ounce.

EDITOR'S NOTE: The stars are beginning to align for the silver market, explosive gains are on the horizon. Central bank and private investment - as well as industrial desire for the white metal - have been quickly expanding interest and ballooning demand.

Silver Outlook to Q1 2025: The hybrid metal is staging a catch-up -wisdomtree.eu

Silver is finally staging its catch-up to gold after underperforming the yellow metal for most of the past year. Silver's year-to-date gains – at 17.6% as of 11 April 2024 – outshines gold’s 13.4%. Most of this catch-up took place in the first week of April.

While many analysts have marvelled at gold’s recent rise to a new all-time high, silver’s gains seemed to have been a long time coming. The metal has been in a supply deficit for three years running and is likely to head into a fourth year of undersupply in 2024. Industrial demand for the metal is rising strongly with increasing demand for photovoltaics, vehicle electrification, 5G technology, and artificial intelligence (AI) applications.

When including investment demand but excluding exchange-traded products (ETPs), silver has notched three years of back-to-back supply deficits, with a 253-million-ounce record-high deficit in 2022 and the second-highest deficit in 2023 of 211 million ounces. When excluding net physical investment (arguably the better way to look at silver balances as silver in investment isn’t ‘consumed’ but stored and is very mobile), silver was in surplus in 2023. Still, it was the smallest surplus on record. We believe that silver will enter another year of deficit in 2024 of a similar magnitude to 2023, when including investment demand. The balance excluding investment is likely to be at its lowest on record.READ MORE

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