11.28.16 - ANOTHER EXPLOSIVE EURO REFERENDUM?
Gold last traded at $1,190 an ounce. Silver at $16.67 an ounce.
NEWS SUMMARY: Precious metal prices rebounded Monday on bargain hunting and a weaker dollar. U.S. stocks fell amid EU banking worries.
Islamic gold standard to debut in December; price jump expected -Gulf News
"The long-awaited new Shariah Gold Standard is now set to be launched before the end of 2016 and expected to become the next big catalyst to push the precious metal to new highs – some analysts say even up to $3,000 an ounce in the medium-term, more than 2.5-fold of where the price currently stands. Islamic scholars at the Accounting and Auditing Organization for Islamic Financial Institutions in Bahrain are reportedly in the final phase of creating an acceptable standard for Muslims to trade in gold, a regulation set to become effective next month that will allow Muslims to trade physical gold and gold-related financial instruments. The council is working with London-based World Gold Council on all technical and ethical issues....'The Shariah Gold Standard will highly likely bring a boost to the gold market and spur a new wave of product innovation in Islamic finance,' says World Gold Council CEO Aram Shishmanian, pointing out that until now, money managers within Islamic financial markets were limited to a few Shariah-compliant assets such as equities, real estate and sukuk as there were virtually no official Shariah-compliant gold products on the market....According to a Standard & Poor’s estimate, up to a whopping $3tn could flood into the gold market after the Shariah Gold Standard is introduced, propelling Islamic assets globally to $5tn by 2020."
As they say, "This is BIG!" The sudden release of pent-up physical gold demand by 1.6 Billion Muslims (23% of the world's population) could send precious metal prices skyrocketing by early 2017. Right now could be the last golden opportunity to buy physical gold near 9-month lows; especially given all of the potential economic wild cards in 2017 discussed here by Swiss America Chairman Craig Smith: GOLD’S RISING ROLE IN A GLOBAL ECONOMY
Ticking timebomb: Italy's EIGHT banks will FALL if Renzi loses referendum...and DESTROY EU -Express
"Up to eight of Italy's banks are teetering on the brink amid fears that a No vote would trigger substantive financial chaos and send them spiraling further. Bankers are warning that a period of uncertainty triggered by a No vote would serve to prolong market jitters and threaten already pressurized banks. Italy has eight banks which are already feeling the strain of the country's debt burden. Monte Dei Paschi di Siena - which is Italy's third largest by assets most at risk. As well as mid-sized Popolare di Vicenza, Veneto Banca and Carige. Four other smaller banks were already rescued last year. Italian lenders have already more than halved in value this year amid growing concern surrounding a whopping 360billion euro 'problem' loans. Lorenzo Codogno, a former chief economist at the Italian treasury told the Financial Times: 'The capital increases of Italian banks due to be announced right after the referendum may become even trickier than currently perceived in the case of a No vote.'"
Venezuela’s currency is so devalued it no longer fits in ordinary wallets -Washington Post
"It’s not so easy to find someone who still uses a wallet in Venezuela, where inflation is expected to reach 720 percent this year and the biggest bill — 100 bolivars — is worth about 5 U.S. cents on the black market. The currency has dropped dramatically in value as Venezuela’s oil-based economy has cratered and the government has frantically printed more money. Prices, meanwhile, are soaring. So Venezuelans must handle huge volumes of cash — so much that the bills don’t always fit in a standard wallet — with many people packing wads of currency in handbags, money belts or backpacks....The shrinking value of the currency has meant that withdrawing the equivalent of $5 from the ATM produces a fistful of at least 100 bills. Some ATMs now need to be filled every three hours, since the machines can hold only so much cash. Because of the difficulties in restocking the machines, there are often a limited number of functioning ATMs and endless lines of people waiting to withdraw money....But, in a sign his government recognizes the problems with cash, authorities are planning to issue larger-denomination bills in January, according to local press reports."
As we discuss in our 2016 World Money Report, the global community is increasingly ditching paper currencies by devaluing them and then rampantly inflating them, such as we see in Venezuela today. President elect Trump has vowed to end China's currency manipulation. Find out what's next for the U.S. dollar.
India's Misguided War on Cash -Bloomberg
"India is conducting a big test of the idea that getting rid of cash can help address crime and corruption. Unfortunately, it might achieve nothing more than a lot of inconvenience. Criminals and corrupt officials often conduct business in cash, because it's hard to trace. So in a sense it’s logical to assume that abolishing cash will help reduce criminal activity....This rationale has led Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi to declare a surprise cancellation of the nation’s two highest-denomination notes, effectively invalidating 86 percent of total currency in circulation. Anyone with outstanding notes must either deposit them in a bank -- potentially incurring a tax -- or exchange them for replacements in strictly limited sums. The move has already proven immensely disruptive, though not entirely to criminals. In a country where most transactions are conducted in cash, many people have been unable to pay for necessities like food or medical services. Banks have had to work overtime to handle the exchange, bringing other financial services to a halt....Those who want to fight corruption by policing cash may have the causality backwards....Cash alternatives could prove even harder to control than the national currency."
Do you still doubt governments and bankers worldwide have declared a 'war on cash' and that a cashless world could change your life in a bad way? If so, we suggest reading our two special reports on the subject; TEN CONSEQUENCES OF A CASHLESS WORLD & THE SECRET WAR ON CASH.
Greece Is Not India? Hellenic Banks Plan "Tax On Cash Withdrawals" To Combat Black Economy -Zero Hedge
"Greek banks have proposed a series of measures to combat tax evasion, strengthen the electronic transactions and limit the use of cash in the economy, and as KeepTalkingGreece.com reports, one of the measures proposed is a special tax on cash withdrawals. Bankers reportedly stress that cash money can easily and largely be channeled in the black economy. Therefore, a tax on cash withdrawals will drastically reduce cash transactions and by extension the black economy. The bankers suggest that also credit and debit cards as well as new technologies enabling cash-less transactions even for small amounts and mobile phones can be used for the purchase of a transport ticket or a newspaper at the kiosk."
11.23.16 - The Black Swans of 2017
Gold last traded at $1,189 an ounce. Silver at $16.39 an ounce.
NEWS SUMMARY: Precious metal prices fell to 9-month lows Wednesday as speculators sold on renewed dollar strength. U.S. stocks traded mixed as investors digested the latest economic data and vague Fed meeting minutes.
Trump and Gold: The Look Ahead -Daily Reckoning
"Markets often confound expectations. After Trump won the election, gold and silver prices fell, while broad market indexes rose firmly. I believe Trump's election is bullish for gold prices, which you can already see in trading charts and new buying patterns....With a Trump administration in the cards, America, and other nations across the world, are in for massive policy changes in many areas....In fact, the bedrock of change under Trump will be his administration's approach to monetary policy, taxation and ultimately the value of the dollar - which includes moving the price of gold....Looking ahead, we should expect a Fed interest rate hike in December. But that won't be a surprise....By 2017, Jim Rickards and I believe that gold-silver will be off to the races. I still believe that we could see gold move back up over $1,400 per ounce by March."
Durable Goods Surge On Aircraft Orders Spike, Ex-Air Shipments Tumble For 15th Straight Month -Zero Hedge
"Durable Goods Orders jumped 4.8% MoM in October, the highest since the October 2015 (start of government fiscal year) bounce last year, thanks to huge transportation orders (up 12.0%) which included a surge in orders for civilian aircraft (up 138.5%) and military aircraft new orders (up 33.1%). However, Core Capital Goods Shipments, i.e. true CapEx, has now declined 15 straight months year-over-year (the longest non-recesionary streak in history). Lots of excitement that Durable Goods (ex transport) turned green year-over-year for the first time since Dec 2014. But away from the unsustainable Boeing and Military orders...Core Capital goods shipments continue to decline."
Dollar soars to highest in more than 13 years on Fed hike view -Reuters
"The dollar surged to a more than 13-year peak on Wednesday, bolstered by upbeat U.S. economic data that showed the economy on track for steady growth and reinforced expectations of interest rate increases by the Federal Reserve next month and in 2017....Investors are betting the dollar will be strengthened by Trump's plans for fiscal stimulus, which may drive the Fed to raise rates faster than had been anticipated because of increased inflation. China's offshore yuan, meanwhile, fell 0.5 percent on the day to a record low of 6.9470 per dollar as traders grappled with the strengthening U.S. currency and signs of accelerating capital outflows following Trump's shock election win....The euro, meanwhile, continued its descent, down 0.7 percent at $1.0546, after touching its lowest level for the year."
Peaks, black swans and bonanzas: Market tips, bold calls and eyecatchers for 2017 -Reuters/Yahoo Finance
"Politics, economics and finance have all been turned on their head in 2016, and investors are already looking ahead to 2017 with anticipation and trepidation. The consensus, broadly, is that the 35-year bull market in bonds is over, inflation is back, central banks are maxed out, and for the first time in a decade any stimulus to the global economy will now come from governments....But what goes against that grain? Where might the wrinkles appear?....For Bank of America Merrill Lynch, 2016 saw 'peak liquidity, peak inequality, peak globalization, peak deflation' and the end of the biggest ever bull market in bonds. That all starts to reverse next year. 'For the first time since 2006, there will be no big easing of monetary policy in the G7, and interest rates and inflation will surprise to the upside.'....Economists at Societe Generale illustrate a graphic with four 'black swans' that could blight the global economic and market landscape next year for good or bad. Mostly bad news. The tail risks they see as most likely to alter next year's outlook stem from political uncertainty (30 percent risk factor), the steep increases in bond yields (25 percent), a hard landing in China (25 percent risk factor), and trade wars (15 percent)."
Thanksgiving Was a Triumph of Capitalism over Collectivism -Foundation for Economic Education
"This time of the year, whether in good economic times or bad, is when we gather with our family and friends and enjoy a Thanksgiving meal together. It marks a remembrance of those early Pilgrim Fathers who crossed the uncharted ocean from Europe to make a new start in Plymouth, Massachusetts. What is less appreciated is that Thanksgiving is also a celebration of the birth of free enterprise in America....The colonists collectively cleared and worked land, but they brought forth neither the bountiful harvest they hoped for, nor did it create a spirit of shared and cheerful brotherhood....Two years of communism in practice had left alive only a fraction of the original number of the Plymouth colonists. Realizing that another season like those that had just passed would mean the extinction of the entire community, the elders of the colony decided to try something radically different: the introduction of private property rights and the right of the individual families to keep the fruits of their own labor....The desire to 'spread the wealth' and for government to plan and regulate people's lives is as old as the utopian fantasy in Plato's Republic."
11.22.16 - 2017: A Massive Market Hangover?
Gold last traded at $1,211 an ounce. Silver at $16.63 an ounce.
NEWS SUMMARY: Precious metal prices traded mixed Tuesday as the dollar rally prompted some speculative selling. U.S. stock prices trade higher as investors digested housing data and President-elect Donald Trump's policy agenda.
Future for gold, oil and industrial commodities under President-elect Trump -Marketwatch
"Volatility in commodities has been high in the wake of Donald Trump’s presidential election victory, but as the initial shock wears off, a more clear picture of what his presidency means for gold, oil and industrial commodities has emerged....Trump has been 'very critical of international trade deals, threatening to pull out of Nafta (the North American Free Trade Agreement) and levy huge tariffs on Chinese-made goods,' said Frank Holmes, chief executive and chief investment officer at U.S. Global Investors. 'This could lead to another inflationary period...and could trigger another recession, all of which would be constructive for the price of gold.'....So short term, gold will probably 'be challenged.' Then, going into next year, some of Trump’s policies will likely prove inflationary, he said. 'If we get back to negative interest rates, which I think will happen, we’ll see gold rebound to $1,300' an ounce."
Between now and the end of the year presents an excellent window of opportunity to stock up on physical gold at reasonable prices. Protect your wealth now from the great unknown in 2017. Details in our 2016 Gold Report - World Edition
India's War On Cash Is Forcing The Rich To Beg The Poor For Help -Zero Hedge
"Maids, drivers, nannies, and cooks in India are experiencing unusual politeness from their employers. Beyond the work they do every day, they suddenly have another use – to launder the undeclared cash which the rich have been hoarding in steel wardrobes, under the mattress and in under-bed storage. This sudden outbreak of niceness is the outcome of India's current crackdown on 'black money' - income in the form of cash that has not been declared to the tax authorities. On November 8, the day before Sharma's employer became a lamb, Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi scrapped 500 and 1000-rupee notes to root out corruption and force more Indians into the tax net. In one fell swoop, the tens of millions of rupees that the rich kept at home in these denominations became worthless. If they deposit the money in the bank tax officials will pounce, imposing staggering penalties and taxes. However until December 30, each Indian is allowed to deposit a smallish sum of 250,000 rupees in such defunct notes in their bank accounts without questions being asked. That is why the rich need the service of the poor....In return for depositing the scrapped notes, domestic staff and others are being offered 10 to 25 per cent as commission."
Do you still doubt that governments and bankers worldwide have declared a 'war on cash' and that a cashless world could change your life in a bad way? If so, we suggest reading our two special reports on the subject; TEN CONSEQUENCES OF A CASHLESS WORLD & THE SECRET WAR ON CASH.
We Are Being Set Up For Higher Interest Rates, A Major Recession And A Giant Stock Market Crash -The Economic Collapse Blog
"Since Donald Trump’s victory on election night we have seen the worst bond crash in 15 years. Global bond investors have seen trillions of dollars of wealth wiped out since November 8th, and analysts are warning of another tough week ahead.... The Obama administration had already set up the next president for a major recession anyway, but now this bond crash threatens to bring it on sooner rather than later....If mortgage rates continue to shoot higher, there will be another housing crash. Rates on auto loans, credit cards and student loans will also be affected. Throughout our economic system it will become much more costly to borrow money, and that will inevitably slow the overall economy down....If you look at history, a stock market crash almost always follows a major bond crash....The waning days of the Obama administration have set us up perfectly for higher interest rates, a major recession and a giant stock market crash....Now is not a time to party. Rather, it is time to batten down the hatches and to prepare for very rough seas ahead."
Trump’s Fed Chairman -New York Sun
"It’s none too soon for President-elect Trump to think about whom he wants for chairman of the Federal Reserve. Come January, he will have little more than a year to make this decision, given that Janet Yellen’s term as chairman expires in February of 2018....So what about a brilliant and tough-minded constitutional lawyer? Many of the questions surrounding the Fed, after all, have to do with the constitutional concept of money....Could one find a constitutional maven who also had some political experience, a leader who has even campaigned for the idea of honest money when others were ignoring the issue? Even one prepared to open up the question of a gold standard? It turns out that there is a figure that meets every one of those particulars - Senator Cruz. The constitutional Texan was the first candidate in the 2016 Republican primary to announce for the gold standard."
11.21.16 - Will the Stock Rally Wake to the Trump Reality?
Gold last traded at $1,209 an ounce. Silver at $16.52 an ounce.
NEWS SUMMARY: Precious metal prices traded mostly higher Monday on bargain hunting as the recent dollar rally retreated. U.S. stocks indexes traded at all-time highs as energy prices surged 2%.
Hackers program bank ATMs to spew cash -Wall Street Journal
"Cybercriminals who once earned millions by breaking into individual online bank accounts are now targeting the banks’ own computers, with often-dramatic results. In Taiwan and Thailand earlier this year, the criminals programmed bank ATMs to spew cash. Gang members stood in front of the machines at the appointed hour and collected millions of dollars. Earlier this month, the Federal Bureau of Investigation warned U.S. banks of the potential for similar attacks. The FBI said in a bulletin that it is 'monitoring emerging reports indicating that well-resourced and organized malicious cyber actors have intentions to target the U.S. financial sector.'"
As U.S. Banks Shrink, So Does The Power Of The Federal Reserve -Tamny/Forbes
"The latest evidence of banking’s rapidly shrinking relevance is that it’s even losing market share in the prosaic business of mortgage lending. As the Wall Street Journal recently explained it, 'banks’ aversion to risk' combined with 'nonbank lenders more willing to make riskier loans' has their market share in rapid decline....Whereas J.P. Morgan, Bank of America, and Wells Fargo had roughly 50 percent mortgage market share in 2011, that number is down to 21 percent as of September, according once again to the Wall Street Journal. At the same time, while nonbank lenders enjoyed 9 percent market share in 2009, the Journal reports that they extended over 51 percent of mortgage loan dollars in the 3rd quarter of this year. What these numbers remind us first is that the bailouts were wholly unnecessary....The Fed’s channel for influencing the economy is banks that increasingly have no influence."
Trump's Agenda Stacks the Odds in Gold's Favor -NewsMax
"On Election Day, America voted for change amid years of tepid economic growth and declining wage growth. Whether Donald Trump can ignite faster economic growth and bring more well-paying jobs to American soil is the $64,000 question. What does seem certain is his anticipated route to make it happen: more debt and deficit spending....The Trump administration’s ambitious agenda in the current economic climate has the distinct possibility of triggering inflationary forces, ultimately resulting in stagflation....During the 1970s period of stagflation, gold experienced a significant rally. In fact, it tripled in price from 1972 to 1974. It tripled again at the end of the decade....Gold’s recent correction is an opportunity to get positioned with an initial allocation or make an additional investment - before prices really begin to soar."
Record-High 77% of Americans Perceive Nation as Divided -Gallup
"Seventy-seven percent of Americans, a new high, believe the nation is divided on the most important values, while 21% believe it is united and in agreement. Over the past 20+ years, the public has tended to perceive the nation as being more divided than united, apart from two surveys conducted shortly after the 9/11 terrorist attacks....Americans are split about evenly on whether Trump will do more to unite the country (45%) or do more to divide it (49%)....Trump's ability to unite the country is also handicapped by the limited goodwill he has from the opposition party."
11.18.16 - TRUMP SHOCK GOES GLOBAL
Gold last traded at $1,208 an ounce. Silver at $16.62 an ounce.
NEWS SUMMARY: Precious metal prices slumped again Friday as the U.S. dollar rose to 14-year highs. U.S. stocks drifted lower as bank stocks retreated.
Islamic Gold - Game Changer In Gold Market -Zero Hedge
"By the end of 2016, 1.6 billion people will likely have a new gold investment standard for the first time in modern history. These 1.6 billion people are the Muslims of the world who constitute nearly 25% of the 6.9 billion people on the planet. This new 'gold standard' is the Sharia gold standard developed as part of a three-party collaboration between AAOIFI, the World Gold Council (WGC) and Amanie Advisors. The new Sharia or Islamic gold standard, ‘will provide guidance from a Sharia perspective on the usage of gold in financial and investment transactions for Islamic financial institutions and participants,’ the WGC states on its website as we reported back in May. ‘The Standard also aims to increase transparency and harmonization regarding the use of gold in various market practices.’"
World Suffers From Trump Shell Shock - Here's What Will Happen Next -Zero Hedge
"The election of Donald Trump signals a sea change in not only global politics, but more importantly, global economic stability and social developments. As frenetic and insane as 2016 has been, 2017 will be drastically more chaotic. Some of these changes will be obvious, some of them will once again only be visible to a handful of people in the world. Lets start first with my happier predictions….The Death Of The Mainstream Media....The Crippling Of Social Justice Warriors....The End Of Mainstream Polling....Liberty Groups Will Get Some Breathing Room (For A Little While)....The Final Stage Of Economic Collapse....I also believe that the process of initiating a market crisis will take approximately six months to become widely visible to the public. As a consequence of the Fed pulling the plug on markets, I predict Trump and the Fed will enter into open hostilities against each other, which will erode international faith in the U.S. dollar as the world reserve currency."
Yellen steams ahead on Fed rate rise but concerns mount on dollar shock -Evans-Pritchard/Telegraph
"Mrs. Yellen gave the clearest signal yet that the Fed will raise rates a quarter point to 0.75pc in December, warning that waiting too long could store up serious problems and leave the bank scrambling to catch up later. 'It could end up having to tighten policy relatively abruptly,' she said....The Fed has misjudged the global landscape time and again over recent years....Yet doubts persist over whether the Fed has fully adapted to an international system with open capital flows that is more dollarized than at any time in history, with $10 trillion of dollar debt lying outside US control....Technical experts are nervously watching the yield on 10-year Treasuries. Societe Generale warns that if it breaks upwards through its secular trendline of 2.28pc, it could blast to 3pc in short order. 'The rise in yields has become a momentum trade,' said Albert Edwards, the bank’s global strategist. Mr Edwards said the dollar tremors in the currency markets - and above all the risk of a devaluation cascade in China - could deliver a financial hammer blow to markets long before the benefits of Mr Trump’s fiscal stimulus reach the economy. 'The boost may well come too late to stave off recession,' he said."
Strong Dollar? Investors Better Be Aware of the Implications -Hedge Eye
"For the record, countries around the world have loaded up on an astonishing $9 trillion in US-dollar denominated debt. That’s extremely risky in a strong dollar environment. So too are commodities like oil, since they are also priced in dollars. Let’s review the recent effects of a strengthening dollar: The U.S. dollar index is up +4.6% since Trump was elected (performance since late November 8th) and +5.6% in the past 3 months. Over that same period, Emerging Markets (EEM) are down -7% and -7.8% respectively. 'It’s the lead domino in the deflation of asset prices,' McCullough says. 'The U.S. dollar breaking out from here is uber deflationary. Those are the right two words to use.' Investors should be aware of the risks to owning assets priced in dollars. Essentially, a stronger dollar makes it that much more costly for foreigners to buy or service assets/debts priced in dollars. In other words, heads up."
What to Tell Your Children About Trump -Noonan/Wall Street Journal
"Right now 60 million people are very happy, and hopeful. They haven’t taken to the streets in elation, so we can’t see them. They haven’t broken car windows in their joy. Respect their happiness. This is my fear: The question we ask after every national election is, 'Can we come together?' The question this year is more, 'Do we even want to come together?' Have the two nations within our nation reached a point of permanent estrangement? If the cultural left eases up and the economic right loosens up, maybe things can be soothed. I think many people intuitively sense this: The Trump era either really will work or really won’t. It’s going to be something good or a disaster, but it won’t be a middling thing. This big, burly country can take it either way. The proper attitude now? Give him a chance, watch close, wish well. Cheer what’s sound, criticize what isn’t. And this: trust America."
11.17.16 - The War On Cash Intensifies
Gold last traded at $1,216 an ounce. Silver at $16.77 an ounce.
NEWS SUMMARY: Precious metal prices traded lower Thursday as the dollar strengthened on hawkish Fed testimony. U.S. stocks traded modestly higher as investors digested upbeat economic data and Janet Yellen fanned expectations of an interest rate hike in December.
Fed’s Yellen Signals Rate Rise Is on Near Horizon -Wall Street Journal
"President-elect Donald Trump is preparing to take office amid signs the economy is growing stronger and the Federal Reserve is nearing an increase in short-term rates. Fed Chairwoman Janet Yellen told lawmakers Thursday a rate increase could come 'relatively soon,' amid the release of some of the best data in decades on housing, jobless claims and inflation."
Savage Inducted Into National Radio Hall of Fame -Swiss America
Michael Savage, host of the nationally syndicated The Savage Nation, will be inducted into the National Radio Hall of Fame at a ceremony Thursday night in Chicago. Swiss America has been a proud sponsor of The Savage Nation since 2001. We thank Michael Savage, and his listeners, for supporting the American ideals of Borders, Language and Culture. Congratulations Dr. Savage!
War On Cash Intensifies: Citibank To Stop Accepting Cash At Some Branches -Zero Hedge
"Yesterday, banking giant UBS proposed that eliminating Australia’s $100 and $50 bills would be 'good for the economy and good for the banks.'....Most notably, two days ago, Citibank (yes, THAT Citibank) announced that it was going cashless at some of its Australian branches....This is how it works. The government, media, banks, and even academia have formed a single, unified chorus to push this idea out to consumers that 'cashless' is good for everyone. And it’s happening across the planet, from Australia to India to Europe to North America....Everyone benefits from a cashless society… except for you....Cash is one of the few remaining options for financial privacy that doesn’t create a permanent record of every purchase or transaction you make....Cash is a pitiful store of value over the long-term. Precious metals and other real assets are much better alternatives. But we still can’t walk into Starbucks and pay for a cup of coffee with a quarter-ounce silver coin. So until that day comes, cash remains an asset that you’ll want to hold."
More Stagflationary Signals Emerge As Philly Fed Misses -Zero Hedge
"Philly Fed missed expectations, dropping modestly from 9.7 to 7.6 in November. The number of employees has now contracted for 10 straight months and while new orders were marginally higher, the outlook for business tumbled to 9-month lows, which combined with the highest prices paid since July 2014 flashes a loud stagflationary warning that all is not well."
Coming to Terms with Trumponomics -New Yorker
"At this stage, there remains too much uncertainty about the scope, details, and likely consequences of Trump’s economic program to make reliable predictions. The infrastructure plan that Larry Summers criticized, for one, is just a proposal. If, as some reports indicate, Senator Chuck Schumer, the incoming Democratic Minority Leader, is prepared to negotiate with Trump about the details of his infrastructure plan, things could end up looking very different. On top of that, it is still possible that Paul Ryan, the House Speaker, along with his fellow-Republican deficit hawks, will push to dramatically scale down both the infrastructure plans and the proposed tax cuts. The economists at Goldman Sachs say their best guess is that Trump will end up getting less than half of the infrastructure spending he wants, and less than a third of the individual tax cuts he has proposed."
11.16.16 - Trump Rally Losing Steam
Gold last traded at $1,223 an ounce. Silver at $16.92 an ounce.
NEWS SUMMARY: Precious metal prices steadied Wednesday as the U.S. dollar touched 14-year highs. U.S. stocks traded mostly lower as a post-U.S. election rally fizzled amid dollar and Treasury bill strength.
Why gold should still be the winner from a Trump presidency -Trustnet
"The news that Donald Trump is to be the next president in the US has done little to concern markets, as many had previously feared. James Hughes, chief market analyst at GKFX, said: 'Trumps victory speech was the initial catalyst for the move higher in markets and his interview over the weekend for US chat show 60mins also showed a calm, collected and level-headed Donald Trump. A far cry from the man the world saw during his campaign.'....Despite this wobble, gold has still returned more than US equities this year, beating the S&P 500 by 9.87 percentage points over the course of 2016....Capital Economics’ Simona Gambarini, said: 'Markets appear to believe that a Trump victory will lead to major infrastructure spending and much more aggressive Fed tightening'....'We are therefore happy to reiterate our view that gold will be a key beneficiary of the Trump presidency as the policies announced during his campaign are likely to boost both demand for safe havens and for inflation hedges.'"
Dollar hits 14-year high as Trump-fueled bond sell-off resumes -Reuters/Yahoo
"The dollar hit a 14-year high against a basket of currencies on Wednesday as a post-U.S. election sell-off resumed across global bond markets, lifting Treasury yields and attracting investors to the U.S. currency. That halted stocks in their tracks, with Europe's main indices down as much as 0.8 percent and Wall Street expected to open 0.5 percent lower....The dollar index, a measure of its value against a basket of currencies, rose to 100.53 on Wednesday, its highest since April 2003....St. Louis Federal Reserve bank president James Bullard told a conference in London on Wednesday that it would need a surprise for the Federal Reserve not to raise rates next month."
Gross Sees ‘No New Trump Bull Market,’ Says Growth Plan Flawed -Bloomberg
"The president-elect’s plan to reduce taxes and increase infrastructure spending is unlikely to bolster economic growth or equities, Gross, manager of the $1.68 billion Janus Global Unconstrained Bond Fund, wrote Wednesday in a November commentary. 'There is no new Trump bull market in the offing,' said Gross. 'Investors must drive with caution, understanding that higher deficits resulting from lower taxes raise interest rates and inflation, which in turn have the potential to produce lower earnings' and price/earnings ratios....In a piece he titled 'Populism Takes a Wrong Turn,' Gross said many of the policies Trump favors represent the status quo -- and a Clinton administration would have been no better. 'Neither party as they now stand has bold policies beyond the reach of K Street lobbyists,' he wrote....'The Trumpian Fox has entered the Populist Henhouse, not so much by stealth but as a result of Middle America’s misinterpretation of what will make America great again,' he said."
India's gold traders on edge as Modi fights 'black money'-Reuters
"Some Indian gold traders are placing bulk, short-term import orders on fears that Prime Minister Narendra Modi might soon add curbs on overseas purchases of the metal to his withdrawal of high-denomination banknotes in his fight against 'black money', traders and jewelers said. India is the world's second biggest gold buyer, and it is estimated that one-third of its annual demand of up to 1,000 tonnes is paid for in black money - untaxed funds held in secret by citizens in cash that don't appear in any official accounts. Modi has said he may not stop at the shock currency move that has led to a massive cash shortage, but has not made clear what his next step would be in his drive to uncover the wealth. That uncertainty is likely to create sharp swings in purchases, affecting world prices."
11.15.16 - "We are in a trade war!"
Gold last traded at $1,224 an ounce. Silver at $17.04 an ounce.
NEWS SUMMARY: Precious metal prices rebounded Tuesday on bargain hunting despite Trump-inspired dollar strength. U.S. stocks traded higher on rising oil prices and a tech rebound.
Gold rebounds on Trump policy uncertainty -Reuters
"Gold edged higher on Tuesday, snapping a three-session losing streak, on uncertainty over the economic policies of U.S. President-elect Donald Trump. Trump has vowed to boost domestic spending, which has the potential to stoke inflation and dent demand for non-yielding bullion, but the market is seeking more detail on his policies....'There have been lots of statements of U.S. policy, but we don't have details and we don't know what it looks like. That's fertile ground for gold,' said ETF Securities commodities strategist Martin Arnold. Generally, investors pile into safe-haven assets such as gold in times of political and economic uncertainty."
US-China Trade War Realities -Craig Smith/Fox Business
Swiss America Chairman Craig R. Smith discusses with Fox Business host Neil Cavuto the possibility of an expanded US-China trade war if president-elect Donald Trump follows through with his threat to impose tariffs on Chinese products. According to Mr. Smith, "We are in a trade war!" Meanwhile, U.S. tech stock prices have been falling on speculation Trump may take further steps to curb China's currency manipulation. Watch it!
China fires its first warning shot, warning iPhone sales will suffer if Trump starts a trade war -CNBC
"Apple iPhones and other U.S. goods could suffer sales hits in China if President-elect Donald Trump goes through with his 'naive' plan of slapping a large import tariff on Chinese products, a state-backed newspaper warned on Sunday. During his election campaign this year, Trump spoke of a 45 percent import tariff on all Chinese goods while failing to outline how it would work. Should any such policy come into effect, China will take a 'tit-for-tat approach', according to an opinion piece in the Global Times, a newspaper backed by the Communist party....But the Chinese newspaper was not convinced Trump would go through with his suggestion, calling it 'merely campaign rhetoric' and questioning its legal validity."
2017 Financial Forecast -Craig R. Smith/Coast To Coast
"Entrepreneur and monetary expert Craig R. Smith talked about the state of the US economy, and what he thinks will happen next year under the new President to both the dollar and tangible assets. He also discussed his new book written with Lowell Ponte, Money, Morality, & the Machine, which argues that in an era of 'elastic money,' society has become debased and greed has triumphed....Yet, Smith holds out hope that President-elect Trump can turn things around. He is optimistic about the price of gold for the future, as Trump has said he would consider returning to a gold standard. We have to be careful about who controls the money in the US, and right now that's the Federal Reserve system, he noted. While it's not realistic to shut them down right now, Smith pointed out, it would be a big step to get them audited, and then start to make subsequent changes. If Trump is able to reform corporate taxes, bringing the rate down to 15%, 'we'll see an economic explosion in the US like never before,' with companies seeking to relocate here in droves, he enthused."
Populism Takes Over the World -Bloomberg
"As a form of horizontal political power, populism has been instrumental to legal, agrarian, and social reforms through the years. But it’s also played a starring role in the rise of demagogues and therefore some of the ugliest episodes in human history. Republican Donald Trump’s electoral-college victory over Democratic nominee Hillary Clinton last week was an unprecedented triumph of populism in the U.S. - one that leveraged feelings of victimization by a shrinking white majority who blame lost opportunity on U.S. President Barack Obama, the political establishment, wealthier urbanites, and immigration. America is hardly alone in this phenomenon. The forces of globalization and mass immigration from North Africa and Syria into Europe have already triggered a flood of populist rhetoric from the Philippines to Greece to the U.K., and many, many places in between. In the coming months, the wave of populism will take aim at the Netherlands, Austria, Germany and France. What happens after that is anyone’s guess."
11.14.16 - $2,000 Gold Under Trump?
Gold last traded at $1,221 an ounce. Silver at $16.89 an ounce.
NEWS SUMMARY: Precious metal prices traded lower Monday on speculation over Trump's economic policy impact. U.S. stocks traded mixed.
Gold Could Hit $2,000 Under Trump -- Here's How -The Motley Fool
"One of the bigger psychological catalysts for gold will be the uncertainty created by having Trump as president....At the heart of the uncertainties is whether Trump can achieve his projected GDP growth rate of 4%....Building upon the previous point, our growing national debt could also play a role in pushing gold ever higher....However, various analyses of Trump's key tax proposals suggests that the annual federal deficit could expand, thus increasing the national debt at a faster pace than in previous years. Third, physical gold could see ancillary benefits from Trump's audacious infrastructure spending plan....Trump's proposed $1 trillion in spending over the next 10 years completely dwarfed the proposed $275 billion in spending over the next five years from Hillary Clinton....The last factor is somewhat psychological. According to CNBC, gold tends to outperform when Republicans are in the White House....Could gold prove even more lustrous under Trump's presidency than it was under President's Bush or Obama? Only time will tell, but the initial signs suggest it's quite possible."
The Trump Era -The Economist
"The fact of Mr Trump’s victory and the way it came about are hammer blows both to the norms that underpin politics in the United States and also to America’s role as the world’s pre-eminent power. At home, an apparently amateurish and chaotic campaign has humiliated an industry of consultants, pundits and pollsters. If, as he has threatened, President Trump goes on to test the institutions that regulate political life, nobody can be sure how they will bear up. Abroad, he has taken aim at the belief, embraced by every post-war president, that America gains from the often thankless task of being the global hegemon. If Mr Trump now disengages from the world, who knows what will storm through the breach? The sense that old certainties are crumbling has rocked America’s allies. The fear that globalization has fallen flat has whipsawed markets. Although post-Brexit Britons know what that feels like, the referendum in Britain will be eclipsed by consequences of this election. Mr Trump’s victory has demolished a consensus. The question now is what takes its place. The election of Mr Trump is a rebuff to all liberals, including this newspaper."
New York Times vows to 'rededicate' paper to reporting honestly -Fox News
"The publisher of The New York Times penned a letter to readers Friday promising that the paper would 'reflect' on its coverage of this year’s election while rededicating itself to reporting on 'America and the world' honestly. Arthur O. Sulzberger Jr., the paper’s embattled publisher, appealed to Times readers for their continued support. 'We cannot deliver the independent, original journalism for which we are known without the loyalty of our subscribers,' the letter states....New York Post columnist and former Times reporter Michael Goodwin wrote, 'because it [The Times] demonized Trump from start to finish, it failed to realize he was onto something. And because the paper decided that Trump’s supporters were a rabble of racist rednecks and homophobes, it didn’t have a clue about what was happening in the lives of the Americans who elected the new president.' Sulzberger's letter was released after the paper’s public editor, Liz Spayd, took the paper to task for its election coverage. She pointed out how its polling feature Upshot gave Hillary Clinton an 84 percent chance as voters went to the polls."
Is your financial advisor using obsolete tools? -Miller On The Money
"Financial advisors justify the projections by using computer models over long periods of time – historically producing 7-8% average returns. It sounds good; however things have changed. The government Zero Interest Rate Policy is not 'temporary'; low rates are not going away. Any models using data prior to the 2008 bank bailout-or the ones that rely on long-term historic averages-are flawed....Gold offers inflation protection; many called it 'Armageddon insurance'. If you had a real catastrophe – gold could be your savior. 10% was the traditional guideline....While gold isn’t the only type of inflation protection asset; it’s sure the best of the bunch. Offsetting your long term fixed income investments with gold is a MUST. How much gold? Each person is different. Look at your age, income stream, income sources and other remaining assets....Today, baby boomers in particular, might find his 25% target very realistic."
'Trump Thump' whacks bond market for $1 trillion loss -CNBC
"Donald Trump's stunning victory for the White House may mark the long-awaited end to the more than 30-year-old bull run in bonds, as bets on faster U.S. growth and inflation lead investors to favor stocks over bonds. A two-day thumping wiped out more than $1 trillion across global bond markets worldwide, the worst rout in nearly 1-1/2 years, on bets that plans under a Trump administration would boost business investments and spending while firing up inflation."
11.11.16 - Can Trump Heal the Great Divide?
Gold last traded at $1,224 an ounce. Silver at $17.38 an ounce.
NEWS SUMMARY: Precious metal prices traded near 5-month lows Friday on speculative and technical profit-taking as the U.S. dollar hit new 2016 highs. U.S. stocks took a breather amid lower oil prices.
Gold: Why Economic Reality Trumps Election Fear -Hedge Eye
"The outcome of the 2016 US presidential election has sent shockwaves through global financial markets. Gold largely reversed its 4% overnight rally and is now back to pre-election levels. This is evidence that gold prices are driven by macroeconomic realities rather than fear and greed. We believe that the election outcome changes little for the medium and long term path of the USD/Gold price as the real gold price drivers remain strongly and asymmetrically skewed to the upside....Whatever the FED’s reaction will be, it will push real-interest rates sharply lower into negative territory. At the same time, longer-dated energy prices troughed in late 2015 and are expected to move gradually higher over the coming years as excess capacity is gradually worked off. Hence all the drivers for the gold price remain skewed to the upside."
What Comes After the Uprising -Noonan/Wall Street Journal
"Those who come to this space know why I think what happened, happened. The unprotected people of America, who have to live with Washington’s policies, rebelled against the protected, who make and defend those policies and who care little if at all about the unprotected. That broke bonds of loyalty and allegiance. Tuesday was in effect an uprising of the unprotected. It was part of the push-back against detached elites that is sweeping the West and was seen most recently in the Brexit vote. But so much depends upon the immediate moment. Mr. Trump must move surely now....The president-elect should make a handful of appointments quickly, briskly, with an initial emphasis on old hands and known quantities. A Trump administration will be populated by three kinds of people: loyalists, opportunists and patriots. The loyalists earned their way. 'To the victor belong the spoils.'....The opportunists have a place in every administration - they spy an opening, have a friend who has a friend, wind up as undersecretary to the assistant secretary....It is the patriots who matter, many of whom kept away from Mr. Trump in the past. They are needed now. They have heft, wisdom, experience and insight....The next president needs you. This is our country. Help him."
How Trump can keep winning: Let Reaganism and populism meet each other halfway -Krauthammer/New York Daily News
"Simply put, from the beginning of his presidency, Obama overreached ideologically, most spectacularly with his signature legislative achievement - Obamacare....Hence the other principal task for the now dominant GOP: Undo Obamaism. Begin with canceling Obama’s executive orders on everything from immigration to climate change. Then overturn his legislative adventures into overweening liberalism, starting, of course, with Obamacare....The promise of a Trump presidency is that, if it can successfully work with a Republican Congress, it could turn Obamaism into a historical parenthesis. Republicans would then have a chance to enact the Reaganite agenda that has been incubating while in exile from the White House....Beyond the undoing, there’s now the prospect of doing. Serious border enforcement, including a wall, for example...During the campaign, Trump’s populism often clashed with traditional Reaganism. The key to GOP success is to try to achieve an accommodation, if not a fusion...Onto the Reaganite core of smaller government and strict constitutionalism must be added a serious concern for the grievances of the constituency that animated the Trump insurgency, the long-suffering, long-neglected working class."
The Democratic Party Has Exploded -Huffington Post
"The Democratic Party exploded Tuesday night. There will be months of finger-pointing and internal reprisals over exactly what Democrats should have done differently. But the shocking thoroughness of the defeat is plain....The Trump Democrat turns out not to be a myth, but a meaningful constituency that just cost Clinton the presidency....The Clintons have been on the national stage for nearly a quarter of a century. An entire generation of Democratic operatives has grown up in a world in which it was always understood that the family would be a nexus of political power. This cohort expected to inherit the levers of government and is now without a patron. That fact, for the moment, gives progressives the upper hand in directing the party’s future. But because Democrats are certain to suffer devastating policy defeats under Trump and a GOP Congress, there will be no legislative victories that either faction can point to as proof its worldview can work. And further electoral losses are on the horizon."
Gold Price Skyrockets In India After Currency Ban -Zero Hedge
"As I write this in the morning of 9th November 2016, there are huge lines forming outside gold shops in India - and gold traded heavily until late into the night yesterday. Depending on who you ask, the retail price of gold has gone up between 15% and 20% within the last 10 hours. At some places, it was sold for as much as US$ 2,294 per ounce. That is, if you can actually find physical gold - gold inventories at stores are rapidly depleting. All of this happened well before the international price started to move up because of the election results coming out of the US. Last night (8th November 2016), India’s government banned the use of Rs 500 (~$7.50) and Rs 1,000 ($15) banknotes. This pretty much made most currency-in-use illegal. Banks and ATMs are closed today. The government believes that doing this will help eradicate corruption and push counterfeit money out of circulation....Those who look deeper, understand that corruption in public life comes from ingrained corruption in India’s society and culture. If one had to make an effort to remove corruption this is where one should start."
**The Swiss America family would like to express our sincerest gratitude for all of the men and women who have worn the uniform of any branch of our nation's military, today and every day. Happy Veterans day!**
11.10.16 - Why Trump Can't Save Stocks
Gold last traded at $1,266 an ounce. Silver at $18.73 an ounce.
NEWS SUMMARY: Precious metal prices traded mixed again Thursday on a stronger dollar and short-term optimism. U.S. stocks rose for a second day amid investor hopes that a Trump presidency will help boost the economy.
Investors exuberant as Trump signals shift from austerity era -Yahoo/Reuters
"European stocks rose on Thursday following extraordinary gains in Asia and the United States, as exuberance shot through markets and reversed initial dives in reaction to Donald Trump's U.S. presidential victory. 'Trump's speech following the victory was hugely influential in yesterday's sudden U-turn, as he focused more on unity and the need to spend to get the economy growing again. These policies combined with his desire to deregulate and lower taxes are all very market-friendly,' said Craig Erlam, senior market analyst at OANDA. 'The stance he takes on trade will likely determine how vulnerable the markets are, but in reality these are very long-term policies and for now, markets are more focused on the prospect of lower taxes, fiscal stimulus and less regulation.'"
Here's Why Trump Can't Save The Stock Market -Hedge Eye
"The post-election day market moves were nothing short of remarkable....What the heck happened? On the news of a Trump win, frantic investors panicked then rejoiced. The reaction was to price-in a Trump-induced recession then full-out economic recovery in just 8 hours of trading, says Hedgeye CEO Keith McCullough in today’s Early Look. Initially, investors feared uncertainty, recalling the ongoing woes of Brexit (behavioral economists call this reaction 'recency bias'). Then, Wall Street sold the narrative that Trump would lift years of political gridlock, unlocking fiscal stimulus, deregulation and tax reform. In short, the U.S. economy would finally be fixed. Hooray!....Trump says he wants to 'drain the swamp' of Washington’s entrenched political elite. We believe him. Washington should be drained of all the political deadweight. He also says he wants to 'make America great again.' That sounds great too. However, the U.S. economy is slowing and the Federal Reserve is threatening to raise interest rates in December. In short, a lot will happen before President Trump is even sworn in on January 20th. Stock Buyers beware."
As Money, Morality & The Machine explains, we are not out of the woods yet. Progressive elitists have been debasing our money and our morals for many decades. Reversing the direction and damage from 'The Machine' will involve some pain before we see real gains. Protect yourself and your family from the risks of economic recession and stagflation. (Amazing free book offer!)
Ex-Fed Chairman Greenspan sees sluggish growth ahead, with signs of inflation -CNBC
"Former Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan told CNBC on Thursday the political structure has been in chaos for years, and fixing the economy will take tough political judgments. 'I think we're in a period, because of fiscal reasons, for a sluggish economic growth rate for a while, but superimposed on that are very early signs of a pickup in inflation,' Greenspan said on 'Squawk Box.' 'My concern now is actually stagflation. That pickup in inflation is going to move profit margins up temporarily. But it's a false dawn,' he said....The soaring costs of entitlement programs, including Social Security and Medicare, must be reined in, said Greenspan. 'If we don't bring that under control, everything else we're doing is irrelevant.' Greenspan also said he'd 'love to see Dodd-Frank disappear.' He called the regulations that were designed to reduce banking risk in the wake of the 2008 financial crisis a 'disastrous mistake.'"
Help Us, Janet Yellen -Slate
"The Democrats lost the White House and failed to regain control of both the Senate and the House of Representatives. There are 35 Republican governors. So what power center in American life is occupied by a Democrat? For now, it’s only the Federal Reserve....The sickening drop in the futures markets in the immediate wake of Tuesday night’s Trump victory — Dow futures fells more than 700 points — sent minds and hearts racing back to the financial crisis. While the quick rebound Wednesday morning should soothe some frayed nerves, the fact remains that this is a dangerous world full of potential disruptions: Brexit, a potential slowdown in China, the troubles of Germany’s largest bank....She (Yellen) has to be prepared to respond to any crisis that crops up in the next two months and to be the sole first responder; lame-duck administrations are really bad at dealing with late-breaking crises. And she must prepare for a disruptive new normal. During the campaign, Trump lambasted Yellen for keeping interest rates low, accusing her of trying to benefit President Obama and Hillary Clinton....Yellen was appointed in 2014, and her term is up in January 2018. Of course she won’t be reappointed by Trump."
11.9.16 -'Deplorables' Shake Up The Elite
Gold last traded at $1,273 an ounce. Silver at $18.37 an ounce.
NEWS SUMMARY: Precious metal prices traded mixed Wednesday after a stunning Trump victory sent prices rocketing overnight, boosted the dollar and left financial markets reeling. U.S. stocks rose after falling sharply overnight and sending speculators for a wild ride.
The benefit of the election 'goes to the gold market' -Gartman/CNBC
"When it comes to the commodities market, copper, steel, coal and gold could be among the winners from the U.S. election, Dennis Gartman, founder and editor of The Gartman Letter, said Wednesday. 'I think the world was not prepared for Mr. Trump to win this,' Gartman told CNBC's 'Squawk Box.' So money is fleeing to safer havens - it's going to gold, it's going to the Japanese yen.'.... 'I think the benefit goes to the gold market because of uncertainty,' Gartman said. 'I think that's going to happen rather consistently.'"
Trump's Triumphant Capitalist Revolution -Ponte/PR Buzz
"As news of Donald Trump's growing state victories circled the world, Dow Futures plummeted by 960 points as globalist investors rushed to flee the stock bubble and seek the security of gold, driving the precious metal's price up by 4 percent in a matter of minutes. Those who live in the fantasy world of Politically Correct ideology also panicked in fear, crashing Canada's immigration website as they rushed to escape before this uprising of the working Americans engulfed them.'After Brexit and this election, everything is now possible' tweeted Gerard Araud, the 63-year-old French Ambassador to the United States. 'A world is collapsing before our eyes. Dizziness.'....American voters likewise chose Donald Trump on November 8 to take America back from globalist elitists such as former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton and President Barack Obama who have tried to transform our country with a flood of illegal immigrants, and to circumvent our Constitution through Executive Orders and a weaponized bureaucracy of partisan regulatory bullies....Donald Trump's election and Brexit are both part of a larger world-wide uprising against globalist plans -- from trade agreements to claims of global warming, to impose what President George H.W. Bush referred to as 'the New World Order,' which is a new kind of empire with values very different from the U.S. Constitution, as we explain in Money, Morality & The Machine: Smith's Law in an Unethical, Over-Governed Age. We show how, by debasing our money, these elitists have debased human values in much of our society. What they plan next is a 'cashless' society of dependence and vanishing freedom. And we show how you can take steps to protect yourself and your family from the risks these elitists have set in motion – risks that may be hard to remedy, even under President Donald Trump." Full story, book offer
Fed up with Washington, Trump's 'deplorables' shake up the elite -Reuters
"Fed up with Washington and feeling left behind, supporters of Republican Donald Trump upended the U.S. presidential race, electing a political newcomer they say offers the country a shot at dramatic change. Once dismissed by Trump's Democratic rival Hillary Clinton as 'deplorables,' supporters interviewed on Tuesday shrugged off his late-night tweeted insults, allegations against him of sexual misconduct and dire warnings from many in the Republican establishment that the businessman-turned-reality-television-star would throw U.S. economic and foreign policy into disarray....'The freedom-loving Americans pushed back against the elites and the globalists. They might win in the long run, but we're not dead yet,' said Andrew Dye, 48, of Dexter, Michigan....'He is an effective businessman at the end of the day. So things are never quite as good as they appear and things are never quite as bad as they appear in life and I think he can make a decent president,' said Recknagel, 52, from Panama City Beach, Florida."
U.S. Stock Market Shrugs Off Overnight Tumult; 10-Year Yield Tops 2% -Wall Street Journal
"U.S. stocks rallied Wednesday, the latest twist in a U.S. presidential election that sent global markets into a tailspin overnight. The Dow Jones Industrial Average soared 200 points and the 10-year Treasury yield rose above 2% after Donald Trump's surprise victory, which overnight had sent U.S. stock futures sliding as much as 5% and havens like the Japanese yen soaring. The U.S. presidential election results spiraled through financial markets late Tuesday and into Wednesday morning, initially sending U.S. stock futures and the dollar sliding and havens such as gold and the Japanese yen soaring....Polls, bookmakers and forecasters had consistently pointed to a narrow victory for Democratic candidate Hillary Clinton, and markets had moved on those assessments. For many traders, it was a reprise of the Brexit vote in late June."
11.8.16 - Your Current IRA May Qualify for a Precious Metal Retirement Plan
If your investment advisor has never explained to you how easy it is to own gold bullion in your IRA you’re not alone, it’s unfortunately not a commonly known fact. Don’t confuse owning physical gold in your IRA with investing in exchange-traded funds (ETFs), as it’s a very different concept. You don’t physically own gold in an ETF, rather you just own a piece of paper that entitles you to part of the value of the ETF’s gold assets. When you convert your IRA to a gold IRA you will actually own the physical gold yourself without any proxy in between. This distinction matters when it comes to your money.
One of the fundamental risks of relying on an ETF for your precious metal investments was demonstrated by MF Global’s troubles in 2011. MF Global, a derivatives broker who facilitated exchange-traded funds, was in essence overleveraged and a lot of things went wrong at once, leading to a near fatal liquidity problem. Their solution, which was entirely illegal and unethical, was to dip into customer funds in an attempt to dig themselves out. When they eventually filed for bankruptcy, disappointed investors were told they could only expect to receive about 72 cents on the dollar for their investments.
While it is possible to pull gold out of ETFs like IAU or GLD, it’s not exactly easy to do. For GLD you have to own 100,000 shares and have to pay for the delivery and any other charges – and they only deliver in 400-ounce bars. Even then, GLD reserves the right to send you a check for the value of the gold instead of the bullion itself.
When you physically own your gold in a gold IRA you never have to worry about the integrity or stability of a derivatives broker.
ETFs may work for investors who want some diversification in precious metals and don’t mind not actually owning or having any claim to their asset, but if you’d feel more comfortable owning your own gold, rolling your existing retirement account into a gold IRA may be the solution for you.
The History of Gold IRAs
There has long been a demand for holding precious metals in IRAs, which is why the IRS began allowing physical gold holdings in retirement accounts in 1986. Studies, such as the one presented by Dr. Raymond Lombra, have shown historical precedence for the ability of gold to reduce portfolio risk and increase returns.
His report was a summary of nearly two decades of analysis. Between 1974 and 1993, a portfolio of 90% stocks and treasuries, 5% gold and 5% coins outperformed similar portfolios and was subject to less market risk during that period.
Why Do Experts Suggest Diversifying at Least Part of Your Portfolio Into Gold or Precious Metals?
If you’re concerned by global instability and the apparent inability of our government to control spending, reform the tax code or curtail regulation – or the equally if not more disturbing inability of the Fed to increase interest rates out of an apparently paralyzing fear that doing so would crash markets around the world – you’re certainly not alone.
During this time of fear and uncertainty, many people are looking to physical gold as a more reliable store of value than the dollar, treasuries and equities.
- Just because the U.S. dollar is considered a reserve currency today doesn’t make it impervious to the unknowns of tomorrow. There’s also some pretty compelling historic evidence to suggest that when the dollar drops investors turn to gold for security, raising gold prices inversely to the fall of the dollar. This can make owning gold a valuable hedge against potential instability.
- Historically, the price of gold has risen with the cost of living, and will likely perform better during inflationary periods than liquid currency.
- In many ways people are more afraid now about the state and future of the world than ever before. Extremism and terrorism has already arrived in Western cities around the world, including our own country; dictators and potentially irrational actors are running amok across the globe; Russia’s actions in Ukraine and China’s actions in the South China Sea make it obvious even to casual observers that they are attempting to reassert their roles as global superpowers. Many of us can’t recall a more unpredictable time. Owning gold gives many investors significantly more confidence than they feel when relying on a line of code in an account on some far away server.
- Demand for gold fluctuates, but emerging market economies have the potential to be some of the biggest consumers. Gold is incredibly popular in India, which is already one of the world’s biggest gold consumers. Considering the growth of their economy as well as China’s, another country where owning physical gold is popular, you can likely look forward to increased demand from these markets as greater portions of their populations enter the global middle class.
- While you can find investment advisors who will argue for and against physical gold as an investment, you aren’t likely to find one who doesn’t recommend diversification. Knowing gold’s value as a hedge against a falling U.S. dollar, diversifying at least some of your savings into gold may be one of the many ways you can insulate your retirement portfolio from risk.
Do You Want to Learn More About Converting an Existing IRA Into a Gold IRA?
You don’t have to commit to anything when you call Swiss America for a free, no-obligation discussion with one of our respected experts. You are also welcome to an array of free reports, books and more that will educate you on trends and news in precious metals, coins and retirement investment plans.
Give us a call at (800) Buy Coin (289-2646) or visit our site to learn more!
11.7.16 - Preparation is Preservation: A Post Election Plan
Gold last traded at $1,279 an ounce. Silver at $18.15 an ounce.
NEWS SUMMARY: Precious metal prices dipped Monday as short-term speculators bet on a Hillary presidential victory. U.S. stocks rallied sharply as news of the FBI "clearance" of Hillary Clinton investigation cheered Wall Street power brokers and investors.
The Death of Elitism -Washington Examiner
"Somewhere off U.S. 62 between Sharon, Pa., and Masory, Ohio, a sign reads, 'You had your chance, it's our turn now.' That homemade sign, located in the fault line of this election in the Mahoning Valley between Ohio and Pennsylvania, in all its simplicity found a way to capture the essence of this presidential cycle. In fact, it offered more insight into the discord between the American electorate and the governing elite than any pundit has been able to explain, let alone comprehend. In short, the biggest takeaway from this election no matter who wins is that we have witnessed the end of elitism. And the power of elites to persuade us has evaporated. The public no longer has faith in big banks or big companies or big government....And voters are sick and tired of the elite. Why? Because the social contract has been broken. One side gets all of the benefits, and the other side bears all of the costs."
Preparation is Preservation: A Reality Check -Dean Heskin/SATC
"The Election of 2016 has been toxic. From wrecked friendships, to bruised marriages, to battered family ties - this year’s presidential contest has left its mark on the American psyche....So no matter who wins the presidency, an economic conundrum will be waiting. If Hillary Clinton prevails entitlement spending will soar, job creators will face higher taxes, and the size of government will explode. If Donald Trump is victorious, it will be a shock to the political system and the jolt of uncertainty will likely send global markets reeling....As HBSC proclaimed, the one certain winner of the election will be the gold investor. Analysts recently forecast at least an 8% price surge regardless of the election’s outcome. They understand that at moments like these preparation is preservation and gold is a time-tested way to safeguard wealth particularly in a climate of extreme political discord." Full story
"Sell Everything Now" David Stockman Warns, America Faces "Total Disaster...Partisan Warfare" -Zero Hedge
"'Under a Trump victory, all bets are off,' warns former Director of the Office of Management and Budget under President Ronald Reagan, David Stockman. 'I like [Trump] because he's against the establishment, but he has no economic program. Yes, he's a disruptor, but has nothing to disrupt with,' Stockman told CNBC, 'if elected, it will be partisan warfare and a total disaster.' Stockman's message is clear, as CNBC notes, sell everything...'The markets are hideously inflated... If you don't sell before the election, certainly do it afterwards. Government is going to be totally paralyzed regardless of who wins... There could be a 25 percent draw down on markets.'....Stockman likened the future of Wall Street, after the election, to San Francisco after the 1906 earthquake, one of the most devastating ever. For this reason, Stockman has washed his hands of everything in his portfolio except cash and gold."
Hedge Funds Are Hiding Out in Gold -Bloomberg
"To understand how fearful investors are of all the wild cards in Tuesday’s U.S. presidential election, just take a look at the gold market. Hedge funds are piling into the perceived safety of bullion, increasing their wagers that the metal will rally for a second straight week, U.S. government data showed Friday. That marked the first consecutive gain since July as money managers pushed their holdings to a one-month high....Retail investors are also adding to holdings. Gold-coin sales gained for a third month in October, the longest streak in almost six years, data from the U.S. Mint show."
Find out why the world's biggest money managers, central banks and hedge funds agree that now is an excellent window of opportunity to protect savings and wealth with physical gold. Today is the perfect time to take responsibility for restoring your own personal gold standard which is discussed in our 2016 Gold Report - World Edition
Nation Fails Its Moral Exam -Howie Carr/Boston Herald
"The emperor has no clothes. Whatever happens Tuesday, and I’m not that optimistic, at least Donald Trump’s campaign has exposed the utter moral and ethical bankruptcy of the American establishment from top to bottom....Even if Hillary staggers across the finish line Tuesday, does anyone really think she can put the genie back in the bottle? Half the country is checking out, has checked out already. Nobody reads the Hillary-worshipping newspapers anymore, or watches their crappy TV networks. They have not a shred of moral authority....John Adams once wrote of the new republic: 'Our constitution was made only for a moral and religious people. It is wholly inadequate to the government of any other.' Are we still a moral and religious people? Sadly, I think we all know the answer to that question - even before the polls open Tuesday."
In Money, Morality & The Machine: Smith's Law in an Unethical, Over-Governed Age, the authors state, "Like character and reputation in an individual, currency is the mirror in which a nation reveals and sees itself, its character and integrity....With gold in hands you're positioned to preserve your wealth for a lifetime as well as pass it on to the next generation." (Amazing free book offer!)
11.4.16 - Election Jitters Boosting Gold
Gold last traded at $1,304 an ounce. Silver at $18.37 an ounce.
NEWS SUMMARY: Precious metal prices rose for a 7th day Friday as a mixed jobs report weakened the dollar. U.S. stocks fell for a 9th day despite improved jobs data amid growing pre-election jitters.
October Payrolls Miss, Rise 161,000 After Upward Revisions, Wages Beat; Unemployment Rate Dips To 4.9% -Zero Hedge
"With the whisper numbers suggesting a modest beat heading into today's October NFP, expected by consensus to print at 173K, moments ago the BLS reported that in October jobs rose by 161K, missing expectations, however in line with historical precedent, the September print of 156K was revised upward to 191K, while the change in employment for August was revised up from +167,000 to +176,000, resulting in combined employment gains in August and September if 44,000 more than previously reported. While the establishment survey was strong, the Household survey was not, and posted a drop of 43,000 employed workers to 151,925K, the first monthly decline since April."
A Fed That Is Distressingly Incompetent -Real Clear Markets
"There are incompetent people in government just as there are anywhere else. The fact that they are so often found in government isn't voided by the fact that is where they are. In so many cases, their lack of ability seems to be enhanced in that twisted way by being so insulated....Our system of government was not meant to be like this, however, as the founders sought to achieve limited governance precisely because they knew from time to time it would be 'led' by men who couldn't lead. To limit the damage meant not just limit the reach, but also to impose accountability by election if nothing else....Nobody ever voted for QE or ZIRP, but now that the agency responsible for them has moved to disown both and all else prior, there are still no answers. Worse, much of the same people who espouse the very same philosophies are left in place to plan the next great failure....Again, there has not been any accountability as to how the Federal Reserve who had pledged economic stability for all of us based on their ability to target just one interest rate suddenly found itself at the worst possible time unable to do even that....The reason they get away with it is that they have never, never been made to account for their most basic derelictions."
Gold steadies as U.S. election jitters offset solid U.S. data -Reuters
"Gold steadied on Friday, heading for its biggest weekly rise since mid-September as jitters over next week's U.S. election offset a solid payrolls report that shored up expectations for a U.S. interest rate hike next month....'The payrolls data is not (positive) enough to drive prices in a particular direction,' ING's head of commodity strategy Hamza Khan said. 'It's all going to be about the election on Tuesday. A Trump win would signal a positive direction for gold, so that's the bigger thing to watch.'....The dollar index was still on track for its biggest weekly drop since mid-August after the Federal Bureau of Investigation said last week it was reopening a probe into Democrat candidate Hillary Clinton's use of a private email server while Secretary of State....Silver was up 0.3 percent at $18.38 an ounce, on track to post its third consecutive weekly rise."
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What Happens In Financial Markets After the Election? -Hedge Eye
"A number of investors have asked Kroll Bond Rating Agency (KBRA) about our view of the market and economic environment after the November 2016 election in the U.S. The short answer is that we expect most of the major trends in terms of the global economy, interest rates, and currencies to be largely unaffected by the outcome of the U.S. poll. Simply stated, what happens within the U.S. political system has less and less impact on the rest of the world. Americans like to flatter themselves that events inside our increasingly raucous political economy are somehow more important than developments in other parts of the world....Whoever occupies the White House, the tendency towards greater volatility and unpredictability will remain a central theme in the years ahead."
Sources: U.S. intel warning of possible al Qaeda attacks in U.S. Monday -CBS News
"CBS News has learned about a potential terror threat for the day before the election. Sources told CBS News senior investigative producer Pat Milton that U.S. intelligence has alerted joint terrorism task forces that al Qaeda could be planning attacks in three states for Monday. It is believed New York, Texas and Virginia are all possible targets, though no specific locations are mentioned. U.S. authorities are taking the threat seriously, though the sources stress the intelligence is still being assessed and its credibility hasn’t been confirmed. As Election Day nears, federal law enforcement is planning for several worst-case scenarios. Earlier this week, an alert warned local police of 'polling places' being seen as 'attractive targets' for 'lone wolf'-type attacks by individuals motivated by violent extremist ideologies, sovereign citizen or other extremist activity."
11.3.16 - Unmasking The Clinton Foundation
Gold last traded at $1,303 an ounce. Silver at $18.41 an ounce.
NEWS SUMMARY: Precious metal prices rose for a 6th consecutive day Thursday on dollar weakness and safe haven buying. U.S. stocks fell for an 8th day - the worst losing streak in 5 years - as information technology led decliners and political uncertainty grows.
Central Bank Blowup? Buy Gold -Hedge Eye
"Central bankers around the globe have cut interest rates almost 700 times since Lehman Brothers’ collapse. That’s not a typo. Here’s the 'Central Banker Playbook': Cut interest rates -> Devalue the currency -> Stocks up! It’s a monetary mirage. The Fed, ECB and BOJ have $12.4 trillion on their collective balance sheets. Again, not a typo. The global money supply is currently $100 trillion. Meanwhile, total gold mined globally is just $7 trillion. We suggest you buy some. Gold is free from central bank tinkering and the principal beneficiary of any blowup in the central planning #BeliefSystem. Investors agree. Gold is up 22% year-to-date. As economic growth slows throughout the world, we expect central bankers to double down on their failed policies (think helicopter money). We’d buy more gold."
As we predicted in in our 2016 Gold Report - World Edition, gold and silver are set for the best year since 2011. Don't miss this golden opportunity to protect your assets from a world of phony political promises and fake money!
Unlock Gold Cycle Gains -King/Daily Reckoning
"We’ll soon experience profound problems with the U.S. dollar. I expect to see inflation in some areas, deflation in others. On the world stage, we could see anything up to and including a full-fledged currency crisis....This will put increased importance on special drawing rights (SDRs), or world money, and gold as possible tools with which to truncate the next collapse....But if you’re not a country plugged into the central bank, what’s left for us mere mortals? Your best option is to use gold....In essence, we’ll have a market sell-off. These days, it might be one or two thousand Dow points. People will sell stocks in an attempt to minimize loses....When that happens, you’ll want to have gold in your possession."
The FBI's White Collar Crime Unit Is Probing The Clinton Foundation -Zero Hedge
"In the latest update from Fox's Bret Baier, we learn that the Clinton Foundation investigation has now taken a 'very high priority,' perhaps courtesy of new documents revealed by Wikileaks which expressed not only a collusive element between Teneo, the Clinton Foundation and the 'charitable foundation's' donors, which included the use of funds for personal gain, but also revealed deep reservations by people within the foundation about ongoing conflicts of interest. As Baier also notes, the Clinton Foundation probe has been proceeding for more than a year, led by the White-Collar Crime division....'There is an avalanche of new information coming in every day,' one source told Fox News, adding some of the new information is coming from the WikiLeaks documents and new emails....In other words, Anthony Weiner may be ultimately responsible not only for the downfall of Hillary Clinton's presidential candidacy, but also the collapse of the entire Clinton Foundation... which incidentally is just what Donald Trump warned could happen over a year ago."
‘Brexit’ Will Require a Vote in Parliament, U.K. Court Rules -New York Times
"The British government’s plan for leaving the European Union was thrown into uncertainty on Thursday after the High Court ruled that Parliament must give its approval before the process can begin. The court’s decision seemed likely to slow - but not halt - the British withdrawal from the bloc, a step approved by nearly 52 percent of voters in a June referendum....It was that prospect that led currency traders to bid up the pound Thursday morning, lifting it from the multi-decade lows it had been plumbing in recent weeks."
11.2.16 - Post-Election Gold Headed To $1,500/oz.
Gold last traded at $1,308 an ounce. Silver at $18.69 an ounce.
NEWS SUMMARY: Precious metal prices shot up again Wednesday on safe haven buying, Fed inaction and a sharply weaker dollar. U.S. stocks fell on political and economic uncertainty as the Fed awaits "some further evidence" before lifting U.S. interest rates.
Gold prices top $1,300 as presidential race tightens -Marketwatch
"Gold futures topped $1,300 an ounce on Wednesday for the first time in a month, finding support from the growing uncertainty surrounding the U.S. presidential election as well as weakness in the U.S. dollar....Republican presidential nominee 'Donald Trump’s improved standing in the polls tends to neutralise this week’s Fed meeting as a market event,' said Ric Spooner, chief market analyst at CMC Markets, in emailed commentary. 'Even if the Fed does signal an inclination to lift rates in December, markets will take the view that this is unlikely if a Trump victory leads to uncertainty and a surge in financial market volatility.'....'Having already been caught off side by Brexit earlier this year, the increase in U.S. political uncertainty has traders fleeing into gold as a safe haven for capital,' Colin Cieszynski, chief market strategist at CMC Markets told MarketWatch....'Gold is likely be the most wanted asset to hedge against political risks, and although it jumped 4% from October’s low, there is still much potential to go higher from current levels,' said FXTM’s chief market strategist Hussein Sayed, in a note to clients."
The U.S. Stock Market Isn’t Going Clinton’s Way -Bloomberg
"Few institutions have a better track record calling presidential races than the U.S. stock market. At the moment, it’s sending information that counts against Democrat Hillary Clinton. The performance of the S&P 500 Index has signaled the outcome of every presidential election since 1984, according to an analysis by Strategas Research Partners LLC....Some analysts also wonder if Federal Reserve stimulus has made stocks a less reliable signal of economic health than they were in the past."
US elections will push gold to hit $1,500: Technical analyst -CNBC
"Gold is on course to head as high as $1,500 per ounce, according to a technical analyst, who says the current environment will disrupt the usual inverse relationship between the U.S. dollar and the precious metal. According to Ron William, Founder & Principal Market Strategist at RW Market Advisory, the impending presidential election will create an anomaly to normal market moves as investors pull back from risk exposure around the November 8 vote....The gold price has jumped around 20 percent so far in 2016, peaking in mid-July and slipping notably around the start of October."
The Agony of ObamaCare’s Collapse Has Just Begun -Tanner/Cato
"Listen closely. That’s the sound of a health care plan dying. With the announcement this week of massive premium hikes for health insurance purchased through exchanges, it has become impossible to pretend that the Affordable Care Act is itself healthy. Figures released by the Department of Health and Human Services warn that premiums for the benchmark Silver plan in each state will rise by an average of 22 percent nationwide....All of this was entirely predictable....The good news is that ObamaCare’s problems have now gotten so bad that even Democrats are admitting something needs to be done. The bad news is that there remains an almost unbridgeable divide over what that something should be."
Good News: 35% Of Government Workers May Quit -Investors
"A new survey finds that more than a third of federal workers are threatening to quit their jobs should Donald Trump prevail in the presidential election. If only that were true. A survey of federal employees by the Government Business Council and GovExec.com found that 14% said they would 'definitely' consider quitting their jobs if Trump wins the election on Nov. 8, another 13% said they might consider it. Just 65% said they'd stay on at their jobs no matter who wins. Whatever Trump's many flaws, that's an awfully tempting reason to cast a ballot for him. Except for the fact that these workers will almost certainly decide to keep their jobs no matter who wins, if for no other reason than most of them would probably find jobs in the private sector utterly intolerable."
11.1.16 - November 8th: GOLD WINS
Gold last traded at $1,288 an ounce. Silver at $18.41 an ounce.
NEWS SUMMARY: Precious metal prices shot up to a 4-week high Tuesday amid growing election jitters and a weaker dollar as the Fed likely prepares to leave interest rates unchanged. U.S. stocks fell on mixed economic data while investors kept an eye on election-related news.
Buy Gold No Matter Who Wins the Election, HSBC Says -Bloomberg
"There's one certain winner of next week's presidential election, according to HSBC Holdings Plc: investors in gold. Although they deem a Donald Trump victory more supportive for the price of the metal than a win by Hillary Clinton, the bank's Chief Precious Metals Analyst James Steel says it'll enjoy at least a 8 percent jump whoever wins the race. Both candidates have espoused trade policies that could stimulate demand, with gold offering a potential 'protection against protectionism,' he says. If the real-estate magnate triumphs, gold could rise to $1,500 an ounce, according to HSBC, up from around $1,289 at 10:55 a.m. in New York. If Clinton wins, the price of the metal could improve to $1,400 an ounce by year end, Steel writes, adding that a Democratic sweep of Congress would further stoke demand for the metal owing to a possible boost in fiscal spending."
Now is the time to back the biggest winner of next week's presidential election: gold. Trump loves gold and gold loves Hillary. Either way those who take a position in physical gold and silver before November 8th will likely be rewarded. Call 800-289-2646 to discuss your situation with one of our representatives.
Don’t Sweat The Election. The Next Crisis Is Already Baked Into The Cake -Zero Hedge
"From here on out politics are only relevant at the extremes - major war, corruption scandal, martial law etc. Short of that, the fiat currency/fractional reserve banking world has such institutional momentum that it really won’t matter whether Trump is picking on bankers and building his wall or Clinton is protecting Wall Street and raising taxes. Debt will keep soaring as it has under every president since Reagan and jobs will disappear as machines replace people, thus bringing the end of the current system inexorably closer. So it’s both dangerous to try to time this kind of uncertainty and, in the end, unnecessary. Crisis is coming and governments (whether left or right, populist or establishment) will respond as they always do, with easier money and more borrowing."
Corruption and Prosperity -Washington Times
"What is the single most important determinate as to whether a country is rich or poor? It is not the level of government spending, taxation, regulation or monetary stability - even though those factors are very important. It is the rule of law, whereby the rules are known and fair, equally applied to all, and where corruption is not tolerated. The end of great countries and empires was most often caused by internal decay, not by foreign enemies - ancient Greece and Rome being prime examples....The American Founding Fathers argued that the greatest danger to the republic would come from the erosion of the rule of law. America has never been free of corruption, but most of it has occurred at the local level....Prosperity and corruption do not long exist in the same place. Unthinking citizens who vote to support the obviously corrupt are signing their own economic and civil society death warrants."
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A Dangerous New Chapter In 'Too Big To Fail' -Real Clear Markets
"A dangerous new chapter was recently opened in the on-going debate concerning whether large, global banks are Too-Big-To-Fail (TBTF) and its corollary, Too-Big-To-Jail (TBTJ). Banking regulators from Switzerland are reportedly lobbying the U.S. government to consider the impact their banks have on the entire financial system ('systemic importance') when considering the size of fines to impose for past illicit actions....Should policy makers and regulators consider the systemic nature and current health of a bank as part of determining the appropriate level of fine? No, it would a dangerous and unwise precedent....American policy makers should arrive at two fundamental conclusions, which should be clearly articulated: When wrong-doings occur, the size and scope of the penalty will be proportional to the crime and the laws and regulations governing that crime....Second, the U.S. expects other countries to apply their rules similarly to our firms who are engaged internationally."