2025 Blog Archives

2.19.25 - Goldman and UBS predict more gold gains

Gold last traded at $2,933 an ounce. Silver at $32.74 an ounce.

‘Currency Wars’ Predictions Come True -Daily Reckoning

As more uncertainty floods the market, more investors and nations are flocking to gold - since it acts as a portfolio hedge against a host of economic scenarios. Globally, many have lost trust in the dollar and are seeking out tangible alternatives. Those chickens are coming home to roost.

by Dan Amoss

Jim Rickards’ best-selling 2011 book, Currency Wars, was prophetic.

He painted a stark picture of the flaws in the modern paper monetary system, warning that “a new crisis of confidence in the dollar is on its way.”

Although the U.S. dollar has been strong against most other paper currencies for years, it has weakened dramatically against gold.

Most people think of gold as a derivative of the U.S. dollar. That’s the blue line below.

Inverting the relationship is another way to think about gold. As shown in the red line, the dollar has lost 62% of its value against gold since 2015.

Reframing your perspective on the U.S. dollar as a derivative of gold, a timeless money, can be enlightening.

Let’s revisit currency wars 15 years after Jim popularized the term. Currency wars are no longer a theoretical discussion amid President Trump’s efforts to strike fairer trade deals. READ MORE AND VIEW CHARTS

Goldman predicts more gold price gains as Trump tariff fears swirl -Yahoo! Finance

As of today, gold is well on its way to the $3000/oz mark, with no end in sight. Multiple financial firms are revising their forecast higher as well. Gold may seem expensive at the moment, but it will look like a steal if the yellow metals stays on its current trajectory.

by Brian Sozzi

Gold's glittering run in 2025 may have more room to rise higher, Goldman Sachs believes.

On Tuesday, the investment bank lifted its year-end price target for gold to $3,100 an ounce, from $2,890 previously. Goldman said "structurally higher" central bank demand will add 9% to the price of gold by the end of the year, also helped by a slight boost from ETF holdings.

But Goldman added that concerns about President Trump's tariffs could be an "upside" risk to gold prices.

"However, if policy uncertainty — including tariff fears — stays high, higher speculative positioning for longer could push gold prices as high as $3,300 an ounce by year-end," Goldman strategist Lina Thomas wrote in a note to clients.

In a gold note of its own today, UBS said it could see a path for gold hitting $3,200 an ounce. READ MORE

Trump Warns 25% Tariffs On Cars, Drugs And Chips Coming In April -Zero Hedge

While many believe Trump's tariff talk is merely bravado, others have taken steps to offset the stressors they will face if supply chains and trade flows are disrupted overnight.

by Tyler Durden

With Wall Street growing more confident by the day that Trump's tariffs are nothing but hot air, and pushing stocks to new record highs, today after the close President Donald Trump tried to reassure the market that tariffs are indeed coming and said he would likely impose tariffs on auto, semiconductor and pharmaceutical imports of around 25%, with an announcement coming as soon as April 2.

The new duties, if implemented, would widen the president’s trade war. Trump previously announced 25% tariffs on steel and aluminum that are set to take effect in March, but Tuesday’s comments are his most detailed yet in specifying other sectors that would be hit with fresh barriers.

“I probably will tell you that on April 2, but it’ll be in the neighborhood of 25%,” Trump told reporters at his Mar-a-Lago club when asked about his plan for auto tariffs.

Asked about similar levies on pharmaceutical drugs and semiconductor chips, the president said: “It’ll be 25% and higher, and it’ll go very substantially higher over a course of a year.” Trump added that he wanted to give companies “time to come in” before announcing new import taxes.

“When they come into the United States and they have their plant or factory here there is no tariff, so we want to give them a little bit of a chance,” he said.

As noted last week, Trump also threatened other streams of tariffs, all part of an effort to rebalance the US’s trading relationships across the globe. The president has long accused other countries of ripping off the US and views import duties as a way to bring industries back to America and collect more revenue. Many economists say they would raise consumer prices for Americans and stymie the fight against inflation.

The president has said he would apply “reciprocal” levies on a country-by-country basis as soon as April, though specifics are still being determined. He has also threatened duties on some of the US’s biggest trading partners, such as a 10% rate already applied to China and 25% tariffs on Canada and Mexico that have been deferred until at least March 4. The measures would stack on top of one another, meaning that Mexican and Canadian producers in certain sectors could pay as many as three tariffs. READ MORE

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2.18.25 - D.O.G.E. Set to Investigate Fort Knox’s $425B Gold Reserve

Gold last traded at $2,934 an ounce. Silver at $32.88 an ounce.

EDITOR'S NOTE: Many of us in the metals industry have long been doubtful that Fort Knox still contains the full gold reserve. Many believe it's possible there is just a fraction in reserve, and perhaps, none at all. If Elon Musk and D.O.G.E. have anything to say about it, they are going to find out for sure. Stay tuned.

Elon Musk’s D.O.G.E. Set to Investigate Fort Knox’s $425B Gold Reserve -Watcher.Guru

by Vladimir Popescu

A groundbreaking D.O.G.E. investigation has catalyzed some more intense debate across multiple financial sectors after Elon Musk brought to the surface questions about the Fort Knox’s $425 billion gold stockpile verification process. The Department of Government Efficiency (D.O.G.E.) has engineered a comprehensive review to verify whether Fort Knox actually maintains its reported 4,580 tons of gold, revolutionizing traditional Treasury oversight.

The D.O.G.E. investigation has leveraged significant political momentum, with several key lawmakers spearheading support initiatives.

This pivotal D.O.G.E investigation comes after Senator Lummis created the groundbreaking Bitcoin Act, which aims at creating a strategic reserve formed out of 1 million Bitcoins, which would be optimizing a whopping amount of 5% of the total BTC supply. The initiative deploys secure Bitcoin vaults operated through some sophisticated Treasury protocols. This would be leveraging the existing Federal Reserve and Treasury resources. VIEW TWEETS AND READ MORE

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2.14.25 - JPMorgan flying billions worth of gold on planes

Gold last traded at $2,880 an ounce. Silver at $32.29 an ounce.

EDITOR'S NOTE: We have all seen an old oater with gold being transported by horse or rail across the country. In almost all of them, those transporting the gold ran into bandits along the way. In today's economy, what would something like that look like? Probably exactly like what JP Morgan and others are currently doing. Rather than horses and trains, they are using jets. The bandits of today? Tariffs.

JPMorgan and other big banks are flying billions of dollars worth of gold on planes. Here's why -Quartz

by Bruce Gil

U.S. President Donald Trump’s tariffs are already having unintended and somewhat strange economic repercussions. For example, they have led to big banks transporting billions of dollars of gold via commercial planes from London to New York City.

The price of gold, which investors tend to buy during times of heightened risk, has been on the rise. Gold futures, contracts for the future delivery of gold at a set price, that trade in New York’s Commodity Exchange (Comex (CME-0.95%)) have risen 11% this year and closed at $2,909 a troy ounce on Wednesday. The Wall Street Journal reports that some analysts project that future contracts could soon reach $3,000 for the first time.

However, following Trump’s election and his threat to impose tariffs on Europe, the price of physical gold in London has been trading about $20 lower since early December.

Normally, prices in these two markets move in sync because traders can ship gold between them whenever there is a price gap. Banks play a big role in these markets by holding gold bars in London, lending them out to earn returns, and protecting themselves from potential price drops by selling futures contracts in New York. JPMorgan (JPM+0.48%) and HSBC (HSBC-0.14%) are key players, as they handle gold transactions and store gold for other banks in London.

However, banks that had sold gold futures are now facing losses, as U.S. prices surged above those in London. READ MORE

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2.13.25 - Gold Price Soars Above $2,900

Gold last traded at $2,926 an ounce. Silver at $32.31 an ounce.

EDITOR'S NOTE: As we've written about in prior newsletters, many market experts were forecasting a $3000/oz mark for gold by year's end. We are barely half way through February and we are almost there.

Gold Price Soars Above $2,900, Eyes $3,000 Milestone By February End -Watcher.Guru

by Juhi Mirza

In a historic new feat, gold has crossed an ambitious price pedestal of $2,900, marking another high within the predicted timelines. The precious yellow metal is now inching closer to hitting another historic all-time high of $3,000. Will the metal be able to claim this spot by the end of February 2025?

Gold, otherwise touted as “the” solid hedge option for investors, has successfully crossed a high price mark of $2,900. The precious yellow metal is already eyeing its next target of $3,000, which the metal may breach by the end of this month if the market forces allow the metal to thrive and prosper on the go. The US economic demographics have had a key role in bolstering gold’s price hike to $2,900. For instance, uncertainty around global trade wars with Trump imposing tariffs on nations was one of the key reasons for gold spiking to a high price.

Donald Trump is still vying for a local narrative, which includes bolstering the US economy and keeping it prioritized on all fronts. This development may compel the US president to issue tariffs on nations, with an intent to bolster productivity in the US manufacturing domain. While the idea holistically supports the US economy, it may put the US dollar in jeopardy, sparking aggressive trade war fears. This situation may prove lucrative for assets like gold that have often been noted to thrive in a crisis, with investors sentiment shifting towards the precious yellow metal to help stabilize and safeguard their assets.

Per a notable finance expert, Rashad Hajiyev, gold has crossed the $2,900 mark, delivering a slingshot after undergoing slight consolidation.

“Gold formed a nice slingshot all th way until $2,863 and is now back above $2,900. Looking good, and after further consolidation, I expect another all-time high. But at this point I would like gold to pause a bit, allowing silver to do some work…” READ MORE

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2.12.25 - Chinese Banks Run Out of Gold

Gold last traded at $2,901 an ounce. Silver at $32.23 an ounce.

US Inflation Rises to 3% in January 2025 -Watcher.Guru

If inflation - true inflation - were only 3%, everyone would be quite pleased. I suppose we should be encouraged that there is some acknowledgment of rising inflation; instead of the rhetoric promising temporary and mitigated inflation over the past few years.

by Joshua Ramos

In what is a concerning development for Americans, US inflation has officially risen to 3% for January 2025. Indeed, the data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics Consumer Price Index (CPI) has arrived above what many analysts had expected. Moreover, it is up slightly from December’s 2.9% inflation rate.

The monthly figures are important as the Federal Reserve continues to develop its plan forward with regard to interest rate cuts. Just this week, Fed Chair Jerome Powell discussed the next potential cuts. Specifically, he noted that the country didn’t “need to be in a hurry.” Conversely, January’s inflation is the highest record mark since June 2024.

Over the last several weeks, the US economy has been confronted with what could be a concerning start to the incoming Trump administration. He has enacted several tariffs on a host of countries, extending beyond just the BRICS nations. With a global trade war brewing, all eyes are on the state of inflation to start the year.

The data is in, showing that US inflation jumped to 3% in January 2025. The increase continues a trend and has seen the cost of living for Americans reach its highest level since June of last year. Moreover, the figure exceeded what many had projected. READ MORE

Chinese Banks Run Out of Gold as Soaring Prices Spark Buying Frenzy -YiCai Global

Gold purchasing in China - by its banks, citizens and government -has reached a fever pitch; so much so it would appear they are running out. This is the reason to hold gold, it is a real asset with a limited supply; which is where it derives its true value.

by Chen Junjun

(Yicai) Feb. 12 -- Several Chinese banks have sold out their gold products after surging prices of the safe-haven asset fueled investors’ enthusiasm.

On the app of Industrial and Commercial Bank of China, Ruyi Gold bars of 5 grams, 20 g, 50 g, 100 g, and 200 g are out of stock, with only the 10 g option showing limited availability.

The gold spot price at the London Stock Exchange rose over 1 percent to an all-time record of USD2,942.71 per ounce yesterday, marking the eighth time this year that the price of the precious metal hit a new record.

The 10 g and 20 g Chuan Shi Zhi Bao gold bars of Agricultural Bank of China are sold out on the lender’s app, and the 100 g and 200 g ones are on a tight inventory. Meanwhile, the China Construction Bank app shows that only the 50 g and 100 g investment gold bars are available, priced at CNY688.80 (USD94.23) per gram.

Gold bars on the apps of Postal Savings Bank of China and Bank of China are in the preorder status.

A China Gold store in Shanghai told Yicai that it sold out the 100 g gold bars before the Chinese New Year holiday started at the end of last month, with only smaller bars available for sale at the moment.

“Even though gold prices may continue to rise in the short term, the related risks are also likely to gradually accumulate,” said Wu San, a researcher at the Bank of China Research Institute. “Investors need to consider different strategies, such as portfolio diversification, to effectively mitigate risks based on their individual situation.” READ MORE

De-Dollarization: Two Economic Giants Ditch the Dollar in 90% of Transactions -Watcher.Guru

Tariffs or not, Russia and India are operating from their own playbook; despite the financial threats from the Trump administration. This seems to be the party line for all BRICS-participating nations, as the alliance continues to build economic momentum.

by Vladimir Popescu

The De-dollarization process is reshaping international trade as Russia and India strengthen their financial partnership, with 90% of direct transactions now conducted in national currencies. This strategic shift marks an important change in the dynamics of the global economic stage, particularly affecting trade relationships between major economies. The Russia economy and India economy demonstrate how national currencies can replace traditional dollar-based trading systems.

Bilateral trade between Russia and India has shown remarkable growth in their de-dollarization efforts. Russian Ambassador to India Denis Alipov stated:

“Mutual payments in national currencies are stable. As of today, national currencies account for around 90% of direct payments between Russia and India.”

Trade statistics reflect this growth, with bilateral exchange reaching $64.5 billion in the first 11 months of 2024. The Russia economy saw exports to India reach $60 billion, marking a 7.7% increase, while the India economy experienced a 23.3% growth in exports to Russia, reaching $4.5 billion. READ MORE

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2.11.25 - Become More Independent Of The System

Gold last traded at $2,898 an ounce. Silver at $31.82 an ounce.

EDITOR'S NOTE: It is no surprise that one of the items on this list is, Protect Your Assets With Gold And Silver. Right now it is easy to get caught up in the excitement of gold's run; but this is a great reminder that the security of gold has been valued for millennia. There is a reason central banks around the globe never stop buying gold. Now is the time to buy gold for yourself, both for inflation protection as well as profit potential.

12 Simple Things That You Can Start Doing Right Now To Become More Independent Of The System -ZeroHedge

Authored by Michael Snyder via TheMostImportantNews.com

The more dependent you are, the less free you are. A couple of weeks ago, I wrote an article about how our system is designed to beat us down and make us weak and dependent, because when we are weak and dependent we are easier to control. Most of us don’t even realize why the majority of the population is so sick, exhausted, depressed and confused much of the time. Our bodies, our minds and our spirits are constantly being poisoned by the system, and those that are in control of the system know exactly what they are doing. If you do not choose to break free, you could end up under the oppression of their system for your entire life.

Of course for many people inertia seems like the easiest option. It is just so easy to keep doing what you have always done, and that is especially true once you get older.

But what are you going to do once the system that you have become so dependent upon starts to crumble all around you?

Over the past several years, our world has been getting increasingly unstable. Major wars have erupted, the cost of living has become very painful, pestilences have been raging all over the globe, and historic natural disasters have been hitting us one after another.

The chaos that we are experiencing now is just going to intensify in the months ahead.

So what will most people do when the system that they depend on for their survival is shaken to the core?

The following are 12 simple things that you can start doing right now to become more independent of the system… READ MORE

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2.10.25 - Gold sets 11 record highs in early 2025

Gold last traded at $2,905 an ounce. Silver at $32.04 an ounce.

EDITOR'S NOTE: 2025 has just begun and gold is on track to break through the $3,000 an ounce price point many analysts weren't expecting to see until year end! The $4,000 an ounce predictions are now gaining credibility by the day. Here's a look into what's causing these increases.

Gold sets 11 record highs in early 2025 surge, rises nearly 11% – What’s driving the rally? -Mint

by A Ksheerasagar

Gold price today: The price of gold has been breaking record after record this year, continuing its unwavering rally from the previous calendar year without any significant pullbacks. The yellow metal, which is seen as the safest investment, has been drawing support from all market participants, including investment firms, central banks, and retail investors, leading it to see one of the best record rallies after the COVID-19 pandemic.

In just under two months of the current calendar year, spot gold prices have already hit 11 record highs, with the latest peak reaching $2,906 per troy in today's session, bringing year-to-date (YTD) gains to 10.52%. In the domestic market, gold prices surged past ₹85,000 per 10 grams, setting a new record at ₹85,880 per 10 grams—an increase of nearly 11.70% in 2025.

The unstoppable run in gold prices is indicating that investors and consumers are shifting their wealth away from risky assets, such as stocks, to gold, which is considered a safe-haven asset.

Also, major central banks worldwide, especially in Asia, are continuing to diversify their foreign exchange reserves away from the U.S. dollar. China has been at the forefront of this effort, reducing its holdings of U.S. Treasuries to purchase substantial amounts of gold instead.

For centuries, gold has earned a reputation as a reliable safe-haven asset, with its inherent ability to retain or even appreciate in value making it an attractive option for investors seeking stability amid market volatility. Consequently, investors often turn to gold as a reliable investment during periods of uncertainty. READ MORE

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2.7.25 - Citi Predicts $3k Gold

Gold last traded at $2,861 an ounce. Silver at $31.86 an ounce.

EDITOR'S NOTE: The time to buy gold is now, even as prices climb. According to Citi analysts, "gold prices could reach $3,000 during the start of Q2 2025." As more investors, and central banks alike, gobble up gold; its future continues to shine brightly.

Citi Predicts Gold Prices Could Hit $3,000 in 3 Months -Watcher.Guru

by Vinod Dsouza

Gold prices are experiencing a bullish divergence as its price has reached $2,861 on Friday’s opening bell. It has surged by more than five points in the day trade with an uptick of 0.18%. The XAU/USD index is now looking to breach the $3,000 mark and usher into a new territory of optimism. The yellow metal remains bullish in 2025 and has continued the positive momentum of 2024. Leading investment bank Citi published a recent prediction forecasting that gold prices could reach $3,000 in the next three months.

Commodity analysts from Citi predict that gold prices are all set to touch the $3,000 mark in the next three months. The geopolitical tensions raised by Trump through tariffs will make institutional investors seek a safe haven in gold, wrote the report. The development will only help the XAU/USD index which could soon experience an uptick in the indices.

“The gold bull market looks set to continue under Trump 2.0 with trade wars and geopolitical tensions reinforcing the reserve diversification/de-dollarization trend and supporting emerging market (EM) official sector gold demand,” Citi analysts wrote in a note.

According to Citi, gold prices could reach $3,000 during the start of Q2 2025. That’s an uptick and return on investment (ROI) of approximately 5% from its current price of $2,861. Therefore, an investment of $10,000 could turn into $10,500 if the forecast turns out to be accurate.

Citi also wrote that if gold gets exempt from tariffs, it would be best to accumulate the precious metal and hold on for the long term. “A Russia/Ukraine peace deal, and confirmation of whether gold would be exempt from broad tariffs (or not), could provide a buying opportunity over the next 2-3 months,” wrote the commodity analysts. READ MORE

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2.6.25 - Gold demand hits record levels

Gold last traded at $2,855 an ounce. Silver at $32.22 an ounce.

EDITOR'S NOTE: Central Banks are putting the pedal to the metal, when it comes to buying gold. As the global financial system seems to be changing before our very eyes, smart money is playing it safe by hedging their holdings with gold.

Gold demand hits record levels as central banks buy at 'eye-watering' pace -Yahoo! Finance

by Ines Ferré · Senior Business Reporter

Gold demand is surging to new records, driven by accelerating purchases from central banks as well as investors seeking a safe haven amid the threat of escalating tariffs.

On Wednesday gold hit record highs for the fifth consecutive day, surpassing $2,877 per ounce in trading, as futures (GC=F) also climbed to new highs above $2,900.

"Central banks continued to hoover up gold at an eye-watering pace" in 2024, according to a report by the World Gold Council, as purchases accelerated sharply in the fourth quarter. Total demand last year reached a new high of 4,974 tonnes.

Joe Cavatoni, market strategist at the World Gold Council, said central bank purchases were driven by "concerns about ongoing inflation, geopolitical tensions, and needs to add diversification to their portfolios."

The Federal Reserve's rate-cutting cycle, which began last year, prompted global inflows into physical-backed gold exchange-traded funds (ETFs), including from Western investors. A lower interest rate environment is bullish for gold since it doesn't have to compete with yield-bearing assets.

Global ETF demand remained steady, with 2024 marking the first year since 2020 in which holdings were essentially unchanged, in contrast to the heavy outflows of the prior three years, according to the report.

Gold is up roughly 8% year to date after gaining over 27% in 2024, outpacing the S&P 500's (^GSPC) gain of 23.1%.

In late January, Goldman Sachs analysts reiterated their bullish call on the precious metal as the threat of escalating tariffs drives continued demand.

“We reiterate that long gold remains our highest conviction trading recommendation across commodities, driven by structural (Central Bank buying) and cyclical (ETF buying) factors,” the analysts said, reiterating a $3,000 per troy ounce price forecast for the second quarter of 2026. VIEW CHARTS AND READ MORE

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2.5.25 - China Prepared for Trade War With US

Gold last traded at $2,867 an ounce. Silver at $32.31 an ounce.

Job Openings Unexpectedly Crater By More Than 500K As Wheels Start To Fall Off The Job Market -ZeroHedge

The job market continues to take it on the chin, as reflected in the most recent numbers. It was just a few months ago - at the tail-end of the Biden administration - it was discovered the actual job numbers had been grossly misstated; and it appears that trend is continuing.

by Tyler Durden

One month after we reported that job openings "unexpectedly" soared on "a record 2 month surge in professional services", moments ago the BLS reported that the biggest rollercoaster series in the US data set just collapsed, when December job openings "unexpectedly" cratered by 556,000, from 8.156 million to just 7.600 milion, the second lowest print since the covid crash...

... and all Wall Street estimates with the exception of one, SocGen's 7.5 million job openings forecast.

According to the BLS, the number of job openings decreased in professional and business services (-225,000), a sharp reversal from last month's +273,000 surge, as well as health care and social assistance (-180,000), and finance and insurance (-136,000). Job openings increased in arts, entertainment, and recreation (+65,000). VIEW CHARTS AND READ MORE

BRICS: China Prepared for Trade War With US, Experts Say -Watcher.Guru

Tariffs or not, China is preparing to go to war with the US; a trade war that is. This comes as no surprise, but that doesn't mean it is of any less concern as it speaks to some of the economic vulnerabilities we're facing.

by Joshua Ramos

{Source: Watcher Guru}

The arrival of such tariffs could have dire implications for the collective. However, the bloc has continued to say its intention is to not target the US dollar. Specifically, several BRICS nations have noted its desire is to only increase international economic participation from nations in the global south. To do that, the group has sought to increase the use of its own native currencies in global trade.

The last few months have seen geopolitical tension between the US and the global south reach a fever pitch. Following Donald Trump’s election in late 2024, one of his focuses was on maintaining the global status of the dollar. That has placed one specific economic alliance in his sights.

This week, he has once again reaffirmed his commitment to impending tariffs. Moreover, they are expected to be enacted within the next week. As those BRICS and Western confrontations persist, China is reportedly prepared for a trade war, experts have said. READ MORE

US Factory Orders Declined Overall In 2025 -ZeroHedge

Factory orders being down is not a sign of a healthy economy. Even though our stock market continues to rally, at some point the reality of our economy - and the numbers reflected by the various exchanges - have got to cross paths.

by Tyler Durden

Despite a surge in the Manufacturing (soft) survey data in December and January, 'hard' data continues to disappoint...Source: Bloomberg

...as US Factory Orders fell 0.9% MoM in December (worse than the 0.8% decline expected) with November revised dramatically lower (to -0.8% MoM from -0.4% MoM)...Source: Bloomberg

This left US Factory Orders in Bidenomics' final year down 1.1% YoY while Core Factory Orders (ex-Transportation) rose 0.3% MoM - the fourth straight monthly rise - and up 1.4% YoY... READ MORE

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2.4.25 - JPMorgan Plans $4 Billion US Gold Delivery

Gold last traded at $2,842 an ounce. Silver at $32.15 an ounce.

EDITOR'S NOTE: Some countries may not be taking Trump's tariff threats seriously, but JP Morgan sure seems to be. How seriously? Enough to move billions of dollars' worth of gold back to the US, so it doesn't get swept up in this tariff storm.

JPMorgan Plans $4 Billion US Gold Delivery Amid Tariff Fears -Yahoo! Finance

by Jack Ryan and Jack Farchy

(Bloomberg) -- JPMorgan Chase & Co. will deliver gold bullion valued at more than $4 billion against futures contracts in New York in February, at a time when surging prices and the threat of import tariffs are fueling a worldwide dash to ship metal to the US.

The bank, which is by far the world’s biggest bullion dealer, was one of several institutions to declare plans on Thursday to deliver bullion against contracts traded on CME Group’s Comex that will expire in February. The delivery notices — which total 3 million troy ounces of gold — were the second largest ever in bourse data going back to 1994. Traders on Friday declared their intent to deliver another 1.1 million troy ounces on Tuesday, according to the latest notice from CME Group.

Fears of imminent tariffs on imports following the election of US President Donald Trump have caused prices for gold futures on Comex to surge over spot prices in London. Spot prices shot to record highs last week, but the additional premium on Comex has created a lucrative arbitrage opportunity for the handful of banks that can quickly fly bullion between key trading hubs.

Similar pricing dynamics have emerged in other Comex contracts too, and the disparity has become so large that traders have started flying silver into the country. The precious metal is usually too cheap and bulky to justify the cost of airfreight, and one industry veteran says it’s the first time they’ve seen it happen. READ MORE

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2.3.25 - Gold Hits New Record High

Gold last traded at $2,814 an ounce. Silver at $31.58 an ounce.

EDITOR'S NOTE: Add to the ongoing de-dollarization efforts the threat of tariffs - and you have the perfect storm to send investors running to safe havens, namely, gold. Gold hit fresh highs today as uncertainty runs rampant through the domestic and global economies. Read on to see why.

Gold Hits New Record High; Dear Jerome Powell, Is Everything Under Control? -MishTalk

by Mike Shedlock

Gold does not believe the Fed has things under control and neither do I.

Reuters reports Gold hits record high on safe-haven demand amid tariff threats.

At the beginning of 2021, the US dollar index was 89. The US dollar index is now 108.

The price of gold advanced from $1962 to nearly $2900. It’s now about $2850.

Yet, people still believe moves in the dollar determine moves in the price of gold.

I suggest the price of gold moves in accordance with long-term inflation and faith in the Fed.

From 1980 to 2000 there was inflation every step of the way, but gold fell from $850 to $250. There was inflation from 2011 to 2015 when gold fell from $1923 to $1045.

People thought Greenspan was “The Great Maestro” and Mario Draghi saved the Euro.

Gold tends to do very poorly in such times and in periods of disinflation.

A friend of mine emailed some thoughts on what’s changed. VIEW LINKS AND READ MORE

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1.31.25 - The Gold Bull Continues its Charge

Gold last traded at $2,796 an ounce. Silver at $31.32 an ounce.

EDITOR'S NOTE: Gold has been consistently reaching new highs in just the first month of 2025, and it appears it's not stopping. There's always someone out there who has lofty predictions for the future, but there is compelling data compiled here as to why experts anticipate the more upward movement.

A Gold Price Prediction for 2025 2026 2027 – 2030 -Investing Haven

Our gold price prediction for the coming years remains firmly bullish. Some periods of weakness characterized by gold price pullbacks can be expected. Gold price targets: $3,260 in 2025, near $3,775 in 2026, peak gold price prediction of $5,120 by 2030.

January 30th – This gold article is now up to date with the ‘latest and greatest’ gold price charts:

Gold chart over 20 years (stunningly bullish).
Inflation expectations chart – strongly correlated with gold (hint: bullish).
Gold price to inflation expectations ratio (must-see chart).
Gold chart over 50 years – a potential bearish pattern is being invalidated

We strongly recommend to check the latest gold charts in this article.

They are worth your time and attention, especially since this article including charts are very well researched. VIEW CHARTS AND READ MORE

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1.30.25 - More Americans Reliant On Food Banks

Gold last traded at $2,793 an ounce. Silver at $31.65 an ounce.

EDITOR'S NOTE: How severe is the inflation crisis in our country? In a word, very. Many Americans are experiencing food insecurity; and the sharpest increase is among households earning $100,000-$150,000. In addition, 59% of Americans don't have enough in savings for a $1,000 emergency.

Inflation Storm Leaves Americans More Reliant On Food Banks -ZeroHedge

by Tyler Durden

Emily Engelhard, Vice President of Research at Feeding America, told Bloomberg that elevated and persistent inflation ushered in a "new era of food insecurity," emphasizing that "this is no longer an unemployment issue."

Feeding America, the largest charity working to end hunger in the US, has a nationwide network of more than 200 food banks that feed more than 46 million people through food pantries, soup kitchens, shelters, and other community-based agencies.

"Everyone sees prices getting high — for food, clothes, everything," Kersstin Eshak told Bloomberg, who recently visited a food bank in Loudoun County, Virginia. She said the inflation nightmare over the last several years depleted her pocketbook.

America's cost-of-living crisis mostly erupted during the Biden-Harris regime's first term.

Ethan Amos, the head of the Flagstaff Family Food Center in Arizona, said his food bank broke records in 2022 by serving an average of 28,000 meals per month. That figure has now surged to a staggering 40,000 meals per month, driven by the inflationary pressures unleashed during the Biden-Harris administration's disastrous "Bidenomics."

Believe it or not, Washington, DC, has a hunger crisis. The largest food bank in the area, Capital Area Food Bank, distributed 64 million meals last year—five million more than the previous year. Data from the food bank shows that food insecurity has risen most sharply among households earning $100,000–$150,000. READ MORE

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1.29.25 - Biden Leaves Office With All-Time-Record US Trade Deficit

Gold last traded at $2,756 an ounce. Silver at $30.89 an ounce.

Gold: Forget ATH, The Real Secular Breakout Confirmation Is Here -Investing Haven

The really big breakout for gold may finally be here; and this is on top of the stellar run it's already had over the last 15 months. If you don't own gold, it's time to change that.

On the quarterly gold price chart, we observe a gold secular breakout. For now, it qualifies as an attempt. Confirming is pending, and a decisive date will be March 31st, 2025.

There is a lot of chatter about gold’s test of ATH.

What goes unnoticed is gold’s attempt to invalidate a secular bearish chart structure.

Gold’s ATH is not a secular breakout

There is a tremendous supply of financial content related to gold.

However, financial and social media are very short term oriented.

Take the focus on gold’s ATH (here and here for instance). Gold’s test of ATH is attracting a lot of attention.

Why?

Because it’s easy to create content.

Investors are left with the perception that exceeding ATH is the most important thing.

We don’t think so, as there is a much more important ‘chart event’ to watch in the gold market.

Gold’s real secular breakout

The really important news comes from gold’s longest timeframe.

That’s not the daily gold price chart but rather the quarterly gold chart. Below is the 50-year gold chart.

As seen below, a true gold secular breakout is in progress now. And the secular breakout on gold’s chart coincides with the invalidation of the rising wedge which, by default, is a bearish structure.

What we are saying is that the only thing holding gold back, currently, is the potential rising wedge.

Conversely, once this rising wedge is cleared, gold is invalidating any potential bearish dynamics. By exclusion, that’s very (very) bullish. VIEW CHARTS AND READ MORE

Biden Leaves Office With All-Time-Record US Trade Deficit In December -ZeroHedge

It's hard to argue that Biden did anything good for the economy when we are still discovering more ways in which is was damaged during his term. This damage has been felt by every American household for years now, even though it took the "official numbers" a few years to catch up. The hope is that the new administration has the cure for what economically ails us.

by Tyler Durden

It wasn't just his approval rating that was at a record low when President Biden left office; data from the Commerce Department today shows that Biden's last month in office saw the US merchandise-trade deficit widen to a record low (high). The shortfall in goods expanded 18% to $122.1 billion...

This was dramatically worse than the expected $105.5 billion...

Breaking down the details:

Imports grew nearly 4% to $289.6 billion.

Exports decreased 4.5% to $167.5 billion.

Additionally, the Commerce Department report showed retail inventories slid 0.3% last month, the first drop in a year.

Inventories at car dealers fell 1.2%, marking the third straight decline after more than two years of gains.

Stockpiles at wholesalers declined 0.5%.

The figures suggest trade will be a bigger drag on fourth-quarter gross domestic product, which will be reported on Thursday.

Prior to the data, the Atlanta Fed’s GDPNow forecast had net exports barely adding to GDP and inventories subtracting 0.23 percentage point.

US manufacturers remain challenged by weak overseas economies and a strong dollar that risk keeping the trade gap wide this year. VIEW CHARTS

American AI Strikes Back -Daily Reckoning

Can America win the AI race against China? Only time will tell. Hopefully the DeepSeek threat spurs us to action and encourages American AI to dig deeper.

by Adam Sharp

American AI firms have rung the alarm bell and all personnel have reported to battle stations (their computers).

Yesterday, we got a response from OpenAI (ChatGPT owner) CEO Sam Altman. Here’s what he posted on X about DeepSeek:

deepseek’s r1 is an impressive model, particularly around what they’re able to deliver for the price.

we will obviously deliver much better models and also it’s legit invigorating to have a new competitor! we will pull up some releases.

Altman’s comments suggest that the DeepSeek threat is real. And as a result, OpenAI will “pull up some releases”, meaning they will accelerate the release of more advanced models.

Last Friday, OpenAI took the first step. They released “Operator” to Pro users ($200/month). Operator is an AI agent which can directly control your computer and complete tasks on your behalf.

This is likely a model which was ready for some time, but was held back due to safety concerns. Imagine what hackers and scammers could do with an upgraded version of ChatGPT which can control your computer! Look ma, no hands!

Those safety concerns are now out the window. Legitimate competition from China has emerged, and winning is now the only thing that matters.

OpenAI, Anthropic, and Google will go full speed ahead. Think about how powerful these reasoning AI agents will be. Eventually they’ll be able to do your taxes, check emails, and complete work tasks.

With President Trump back in the White House, domestic AI companies will finally be able to unleash their full potential.

Will it be enough? The continued dominance of America’s tech sector depends on the answer to this question. READ MORE

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1.28.25 - Gold Price Sends 'Important Message' On Recession

Gold last traded at $2,763 an ounce. Silver at $30.42 an ounce.

EDITOR'S NOTE: Are we headed for a recession? Patrick Karim believes that gold and silver prices are warning us that we are; and quickly. All the more reason to make sure your holdings are properly diversified.

Gold Price Sends ‘Important Message’ On Recession, Expert Says -Watcher.Guru

by Joshua Ramos

With the new presidential administration in place, all eyes are on the United States’ economic health. The country has not ceased to engage in some concerning geopolitical tensions while also championing its position on digital assets. Yet, one expert has recently stated that the gold price and silver have both sent a “very important message” on a potential US recession.

The US dollar had been thriving following the inauguration of US President Donald Trump. However, the greenback has recently slid to reach a January low. That pushed the interest in gold higher, as the metal neared its all-time high price of $2,790 set in October of 2024. Moreover, there are expectations that it could be on a record trajectory as January comes to a close.

Although the US dollar has been the world currency since post-World War II, there is no denying that gold still holds an important role. Indeed, the yellow metal is viewed as a critical hedge to the inflationary pressures the US currency faces. Moreover, with cryptocurrencies enjoying a rising relevance, that has not shifted the potential that the metal still has.

Now, one expert has recently shared that the asset also holds robust information. Similar to stock market trading, the price of these resources can help to give insight. For the gold price, one expert claims it is trying to give a “very important message” on an impending recession in the United States.

“Gold and Silver are possibly sending a VERY important message to those that are listening,” Patrick Karim said in a post to X (formerly Twitter). Alongside all other evidence, it is tough to see we are not heading into a recession. Sooner rather than later,” he added. READ MORE

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1.27.25 - Gold Flirts With Record High

Gold last traded at $2,740 an ounce. Silver at $30.20 an ounce.

EDITOR'S NOTE: The dollar is weakening, as the gold price strengthens. This is a direct result of Trump softening his stance on trade with - and tariffs on - China. The dollar will likely continue to experience volatility as as Trump navigates his way through the Biden economy he inherited.

Gold Flirts With Record High as Trump’s China Remarks Hit Dollar -Yahoo! Finance

by Jack Ryan and Yvonne Yue Li

(Bloomberg) -- Gold rose close to a record high after US President Donald Trump signaled a less aggressive approach to China, weakening the dollar.

Bullion traded near $2,780 an ounce, the highest since it touched an all-time high in October. Trump said he’d “rather not have to use” levies against China during an interview that aired on Fox News on Thursday. A gauge of the dollar fell as much as 0.7%, making the precious metal cheaper for most buyers.

Gold is up almost 3% this week, mainly on haven demand amid uncertainty over the global economic outlook. New US-imposed tariffs would benefit gold even in spite of accompanying dollar strengthening, according to Joni Teves, a strategist for UBS Group AG.

“We expect investors to be willing to look through dollar strength,” Teves wrote in a note, adding that gold would draw demand as a safe haven and diversifier in a period of volatility and macro uncertainty.

Traders have been glued to Trump’s commentary on trade and tariffs since he took office earlier this week. The president has identified China, the EU, Canada and Mexico as potential targets for import levies, raising concerns about how other governments might respond. Trump on Thursday told the World Economic Forum in Davos via video that he intends to hit Europe with import levies in a bid to bring manufacturing back to the US. READ MORE

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1.24.25 - Buffett Indicator flashing a warning sign

Gold last traded at $2,773 an ounce. Silver at $30.68 an ounce.

EDITOR'S NOTE: Is the stock market headed into bear territory? Even the most seasoned investors cannot always accurately predict the future. This is why it's so important to have a portfolio that is properly diversified. Call us today to ensure you are protected, whether the stock market crashes or has more room to rise.

The stock market gauge named after Warren Buffett just hit an all-time high, sending a warning worse than before the dot-com bubble burst -Yahoo! Finance

by Paolo Confino

(Fortune) --- One of Berkshire Hathaway chairman Warren Buffett’s favorite market metrics is flashing a warning sign.

The Buffett Indicator, which calculates the ratio of market cap of all U.S. publicly traded stocks to the country’s gross domestic product, is at the highest level in several decades, according to research from Kailash Capital Research. As of November 2024, the figure reached 230%, the highest on record, according to Kailash’s data. That type of market dynamic hasn’t been seen since March 2000 around the time the dot-com bubble burst. Back then, the market-to-GDP ratio had reached a record level of 175%.

For Buffett Indicator supporters, the gauge is a useful metric in predicting when a stock market slump might happen. If company valuations exceed total GDP, it can indicate that they aren’t creating enough genuine economic value that gets recirculated in the economy. In other words, those companies are valued higher than the actual value they create.

“There has to be actual, real economic profits in order to justify valuations,” said Matthew Malgari, one of the report’s authors. “The data is unforgiving,” he and coauthor Sanjeev Bhojraj warned.

The metric is especially useful in Buffett’s eyes for gauging the current valuations of companies—are they too high, too low, or just right? If they are too high, as the Buffett Indicator would currently suggest, then investors should expect paltry returns in the stock market. Buffett outlined his views on the matter in a 1999 Fortune interview.

“You need to remember that future returns are always affected by current valuations and give some thought to what you’re getting for your money in the stock market right now,” Buffet said. READ MORE

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1.23.25 - A New ‘Golden Age’ for America

Gold last traded at $2,756 an ounce. Silver at $30.43 an ounce.

EDITOR'S NOTE: It's pretty customary to see presidential pardons issued when a president leaves office, granted for a variety of reasons. When it comes to Biden's pardons, that reason was covering the crimes of his corrupt family members and political cronies. In brighter news, the Trump is already taking action on his campaign promises.

A New ‘Golden Age’ for America -Daily Reckoning

by James Rickards

With the exception of the presidential election last November, no period will be more full of political headlines than the weeks just past and the few weeks ahead. The transition from one administration to another on Inauguration Day, January 20, 2025, was both politically momentous and historic. This is especially true when the two political parties are handing over power from one to the other.

It’s fair to say that Americans are most interested in Trump’s first day actions in the form of executive orders, policy statements and moves that will be made in the days ahead. We cover that in detail below. But Inauguration Day for a new president is also the final day for the outgoing president. We’ll begin with a quick look at Joe Biden’s final desperate acts.

Biden Remains Dirty to the End

Biden remained true to form as a dirty political hack who seemed not to know where he was or what he was doing but could at least sign any document shoved in front of his face by his far-left-wing staff. Among his last-minute acts were blanket pardons of some of the worst criminals of the past four years.

Most egregious were Biden’s pardons of members of the Biden Crime Family including his brothers Frankie and Jim, his sister Valerie and their spouses. The reasons for this are clear. The Biden money laundering and tax evasion operations that were ancillary to the main bribery operation required various parties to open bank accounts, receive wires, write checks to the Big Guy, and otherwise blur the paper trail on the corruption. That’s where family members including spouses and children came in.

Of course, Hunter Biden was the main bagman and shakedown artist, but he was pardoned last month. Now the cover-up of the Bidens receiving bribes from China, Ukraine and even Russia in exchange for selling out U.S. national security is complete. READ MORE

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1.22.25 - Saudi Arabia To Join BRICS?

Gold last traded at $2,756 an ounce. Silver at $30.82 an ounce.

Gold Advances to 11-Week High as Trump Hints at China Tariffs -Yahoo! Finance

Gold is off to a great start in 2025. The projections are very bullish for the year ahead, as economic developments continue to take shape around the globe. Now is the time to be diversified into metals.

by Yvonne Yue Li

(Bloomberg) -- Gold climbed to its highest intraday level since the end of October, with traders monitoring the outlook for the global economy as US President Donald Trump continued sketching out his views on trade and immigration policies.

Trump has widened his tariff threats to China and the European Union on top of his signals targeting Canada and Mexico in the coming weeks. Investors are focused on the implications of the Trump administration’s tariff and tax cut policies, which economists say may reignite inflation — limiting the Federal Reserve’s ability to keep easing monetary policy. Higher borrowing costs typically pose a headwind for bullion since it doesn’t pay interest.

Gold set a series of records last year, with gains driven by the Fed’s pivot to cutting interest rates, geopolitical tensions and central-bank buying. The precious metal may receive a further boost from demand for safe-haven assets amid concerns about the Trump’s immigration policy, as well as scope for increasingly fraught US relations with other nations. READ MORE

Saudi Arabia Considering To Join BRICS -Watcher.Guru

The anticipated slow down in BRICS activity as Trump took office hasn't materialized. The latest invitation to join the bloc was issued to Saudi Arabia. The momentum seems to be building in the wrong direction for the US.

by Vinod Dsouza

Saudi Arabia received an invitation to join the BRICS alliance in 2023 and be a part of the global grouping. However, the Kingdom did not officially accept or reject the invitation but kept the decision on hold. They are yet to make a final decision on whether they want to join the alliance or not.

The country’s Economy and Planning Minister Faisal bin Fadhil Al-Ibrahim confirmed that Saudi Arabia is still assessing the BRICS membership. “The kingdom is always focusing on fostering more global dialogue,” Faisal Al-Ibrahim said in an interview with Bloomberg at the World Economic Forum in Davos, Switzerland. He said that the Kingdom will come to an “appropriate decision.”

He revealed that Saudi Arabia is looking at the pros and cons of joining BRICS and will make a decision soon. “We’ve been invited to BRICS, similar to how we’ve been invited to many other multilateral platforms in the past historically. We assess many different aspects of it before a decision is made and right now, we are in the middle of that,” he said.

The BRICS alliance will get a boost in the arm if Saudi Arabia accepts the invitation and joins the bloc. Saudi Arabia is rich in cash flow and can fund the projects of the New Development Bank (NDB). The Kingdom is also oil-rich and can make BRICS control nearly 42% of the world’s natural oil and gas sector. READ MORE

Better Markets CEO Now Predicts A Financial Crash Worse Than 2008 -FrankNez.com

We've been hearing a lot of projections that our equity markets are due for a correction, thankfully it's been all talk so far. The reality of a market that is overvalued, combined with an economy that's struggling, is definitely cause for concern. Some are expecting even bigger corrections than those of 2008. Let's hope not.

Better Markets CEO, Dennis Kelleher, now predicts a financial crash much worse than 2008, stating “the clock is ticking”.

Dennis Kelleher, the tireless Co-Founder and CEO of Better Markets, has just unveiled the organization’s January 2025 newsletter, and it’s a compelling call to action for anyone concerned about the future of our financial system.

However, despite the claims, it is important to mention that many retail investors have expressed optimism in the stock and crypto markets for 2025.

The markets are expected to surge significantly this year under Trump, though only time will tell.

Below is the CEO’s analysis.

The Impending Crisis: A Dire Prediction

Kelleher raises an alarming red flag regarding the incoming administration of President Donald Trump, particularly highlighting the financial deregulators he has appointed.

He warns that “the clock is ticking on a coming catastrophic financial crash that will likely be much worse than 2008.”

This is not mere rhetoric; Kelleher backs his claims with historical evidence, noting a consistent pattern of financial instability following deregulation. READ MORE

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1.21.25 - Trump’s tariff plan

Gold last traded at $2,742 an ounce. Silver at $30.82 an ounce.

EDITOR'S NOTE: Trump was sworn in a mere 24 hours ago and the world is already preparing for substantial changes to the global economy. Many are hopeful these will be positives changes, but it may be a rocky journey. All the more reason to ensure your portfolio is diversified as we navigate these waters.

Here are the products and companies most at risk from Trump’s tariff plans -CNBC

by Melissa Repko, Gabrielle Fonrouge, Michael Wayland and Amelia Lucas

Many of the items that U.S. shoppers browse and buy in retailers’ aisles come from far-away factories or farms — a reality that could soon force many consumers to change their buying habits.

Sneakers, T-shirts, beer and other common household items are often made in countries like China, Mexico and Canada before they wind their way to a big-box retailer, grocer or mall in the U.S. That complex global supply chain was front and center Monday as President-elect Donald Trump was inaugurated. He is widely expected to announce new tariffs on imports in the coming weeks.

While tariffs have become a familiar concept for more Americans since Trump implemented them on metals and other key materials during his first term in office, the levies he has threatened for his return to the White House could have a much bigger effect on household budgets.

Most people have little grasp of just how many items could see price hikes due to the duties: from avocados to children’s toys, to chocolate and cars, experts told CNBC. Proposed tariffs on products from China, Mexico and Canada — the three-largest U.S. trading partners — would likely affect U.S. consumers the most. READ MORE

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1.17.25 - America's Rapidly Growing Retirement Crisis

Gold last traded at $2,702 an ounce. Silver at $30.35 an ounce.

EDITOR'S NOTE: The current state of our economy has created a retirement crisis. A crisis which has long been predicted, but now has aggravating factors. The facts and figures in this article provide an in-depth look at exactly what it means.

18 Incredible Statistics About America's Rapidly Growing Retirement Crisis That Will Blow Your Mind -ZeroHedge

Authored by Michael Snyder via The End of The American Dream blog

We are facing an unprecedented retirement crisis in this nation. Millions upon millions of Baby Boomers are retiring, and most of them are struggling. In fact, it has been estimated that 80 percent of our retirees are either struggling right now or are in serious danger of falling into financial insecurity. We are supposed to be the economic powerhouse of the world. How could we have allowed this to happen?

There are several reasons why our retirement crisis has become so severe.

First of all, people are living significantly longer than they did decades ago, and so retirees need more money these days.

Secondly, most retirees did not save enough for retirement, and many of them entered their retirement years carrying high levels of debt.

Thirdly, healthcare costs are completely and utterly out of control in this country. We desperately need to do something about this.

Fourthly, high inflation has made the cost of living extremely oppressive.

Fifthly, pension plans are less common then they once were, and so more retirees than ever are depending upon Social Security as their primary source of income.

When you step back and consider the big picture, it is clear that we have a major problem on our hands, and there are no easy solutions. READ MORE

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1.15.25 - Gold and Silver - 2025's Bullish Signals

Gold last traded at $2,695 an ounce. Silver at $30.71 an ounce.

A Gold Price Prediction for 2025 2026 2027 – 2030 -Investing Haven

Gold saw several favorable predictions at the beginning of 2024, and delivered quite nicely. The yellow metal started the year around $2,000 an ounce and finished the year over $2,600. The next few years may see similar appreciation.

Our gold price prediction for the coming years remains firmly bullish. Some periods of weakness characterized by gold price pullbacks can be expected. Gold price targets: $3,275 in 2025, near $3,800 in 2026, peak gold price prediction of $5,150 by 2030.

The summary of our gold price prediction is presented the first section of this article. The remainder of this article provides a deep understanding of the true dynamics driving the gold price.

We start with a quick summary of our gold price prediction and continue presenting the extensive research of how we got to these gold price predictions.

1. Gold price forecast for 2025, 2026, 2027, 2030

This is the outcome of our gold price prediction analysis outlined in the remainder of this article.

2025: max gold price right above $3,275.
2026: max gold price around $3,800.
2027: max gold price around $4,400.
2030: peak gold price prediction $5,050.

The ranges indicated in this summary are estimates produced by InvestingHaven’s research, based on current and predicted intermarket trends and secular gold charts. READ MORE

Silver: This Beautiful Failed Breakdown May Be A Bullish Signal For 2025 -Investing Haven

2025 may also be a breakout year for silver. Some may have lost heart with the recent pullbacks, but this could be a signaling of its next upward move. The fundamentals are certainly in place for tremendous appreciation.

Silver broke down on December 18th. It recovered on January 9th, 2025, exactly after 13 trading days, a Fibonacci number. Silver’s failed breakdown is inherently bullish.

In this article, we focus on the silver chart. We combine time and price analysis.

In doing so, we find that silver’s recent weakness coincided with a failed breakdown, invalidated on Thursday, January 9th, 2025.

That’s potentially great news for silver investors, as silver’s failed breakdown has a legacy of leading to selling exhaustion by creating a turning point.

Silver’s failed breakdown – price

We look at the price axis of the silver chart.

The 2024 rising trendline was violated on December 18th, 2024.
The FOMC press conference combined with the rate cut decision pushed the price of silver strongly lower.
In doing so, the rising trendline got broken down.

Strictly looking at price, silver is now in a long term consolidation, below the rising trend (still flat). READ MORE

A global bond sell-off is deepening as investors pare Fed rate-cut expectations -CNBC

The Fed continues to lose ground - as well as favor - in the investment world, and their losses are accelerating. The US has its work cut out for itself when it comes to regaining strength, in the midst of the tsunami of debt.

by Lee Ying Shan

A sell-off in global bond markets is accelerating, fueling concerns over government finances and raising the specter of higher borrowing costs for consumers and businesses around the world.

Bond yields have mostly been rising globally with the U.S. 10-year Treasury yield touching a fresh 14-month high of 4.799% on Monday, as investors reassess the pace at which the Federal Reserve might lower interest rates.

In the UK, the 30-year gilt yields are hovering at their highest level since 1998, and the country’s 10-year yield recently hit levels not seen since 2008.

Japan, which has been striving to normalize its monetary policy after ending its negative interest rates regime early last year, has seen its 10-year government bond yield rise over 1%, hitting its highest in 13 years on Tuesday, LSEG data showed.

In Asia-Pacific, India’s 10-year bond yields rose the most in over a month on Monday and are near 2-month highs at 6.846%. Yields on New Zealand and Australia’s 10-year benchmark government bonds were also near two-month highs. READ MORE

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1.14.25 - Gold vs Interest Rates

Gold last traded at $2,676 an ounce. Silver at $29.91 an ounce.

EDITOR'S NOTE: With economies the world over in turmoil, more and more nations - and central banks - are turning back to gold; and looking to make gold the reserve currency of choice. As Mr. Sharp puts it, "Gold is apolitical. As long as it's in a vault within a country's own borders, there's really no safer asset one can own. It is the ultimate sovereign form of money." This could mark the beginning of the resurgence of one of the most time-honored assets on earth.

My Favorite Way to Play Gold’s Rise -Daily Reckoning

by Adam Sharp

The past few years have been unusual for gold and interest rates.

Both have ripped higher together.

Historically, these two are often inversely correlated, meaning when the bond yields are high, gold is weak. And vice versa. But no longer.

The chart shows the price of gold vs. U.S. real interest rates (10y bond yield minus inflation expectations).

As you can see, the two traded inversely up until 2022. When yields rose, gold fell. When yields fell, gold rose.

The old paradigm made sense. When real yields on bonds are high, more investors will switch out of gold and into Treasuries. When yields are low, gold becomes more attractive as a way to preserve purchasing power.

So why did this relationship change beginning in 2022?

Well, there was that minor incident where the U.S. confiscated $300 billion of Russian central bank assets. Remember that? It was part of Uncle Sam’s punishment package after Russia invaded Ukraine.

Surely that couldn’t be related. Right? VIEW CHART AND READ MORE

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1.13.25 - Gold Is Targeting A Solid $3200 Price Spot

Gold last traded at $2,659 an ounce. Silver at $29.60 an ounce.

EDITOR'S NOTE: Will gold crest over $3000 in the near-term? Rashad Hajiyev seems to think so. The fundamentals are in place for another historic rise. Call us today to shore up your portfolio with gold; some sizeable profits could be ahead.

Gold Is Targeting A Solid $3200 Price Spot: Here’s When It Can Claim It? -Watcher.Guru

by Juhi Mirza

Gold is currently putting all its efforts into breaking beyond the $2665 price mark. The current positioning of XAU is met with intense resistance, disabling the asset from breaking new boundaries. In this wake, Gold is also eyeing a new possible target, which could help XAU claim new price highs. Here’s how gold could hit $3200 in the near future.

Per Rashad Hajiyev, a notable asset analyst, Gold is already surging ahead, targeting a new price spot, a rather ambitious one in a new attempt. The expert clarified how Gold is putting all its efforts into breaking the $2665 price level that it’s currently in. Once it moves behind the aforementioned price spot, the asset could catapult to new highs, as the expert cautiously remarked.

Gold has been trying hard to overcome $2,665 level for the past week. Once it breaks out there is no turning back…
— Rashad Hajiyev (@hajiyev_rashad) January 9, 2025

Similarly, Hajiyev later clarified how XAU is already on the verge of hitting $3200 but may ultimately find some pressure when it comes to claiming the $2690 price level.

Looks like silver is making its move. Gold will find resistance just under $2,690. Overall looking good, pity US stock market closed…
— Rashad Hajiyev (@hajiyev_rashad) January 9, 2025

Once the said level breaks, gold may hit a new price spot of $3200, rallying 19% in the process. READ MORE

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1.10.25 - Why investors are still buying gold

Gold last traded at $2,690 an ounce. Silver at $30.41 an ounce.

EDITOR'S NOTE: Investors are catching on to what the central bankers have known for years: when the US is in turmoil, buy gold. Gold is rising despite the headwinds against it. All the more reason to stake your claim now.

Why investors are still buying gold despite a strong dollar and rising Treasury yields -MarketWatch

By Myra P. Saefong

Gold futures are trading 1.8% higher so far in the new year.

Gold prices settled Thursday at their highest level in four weeks, defying their usual inverse relationship with strength in the U.S. dollar and gains in Treasury yields, as fiscal worries prompt investors seek out safe-haven assets.

"Dollar strength, rising Treasury yields and a rising gold price are all evidence of global concerns with the U.S. fiscal situation," Brien Lundin, editor at Gold Newsletter, told MarketWatch. "The 'bond vigilantes' are demanding higher returns in light of the risk that Treasurys represent, with the U.S. debt and deficits at such elevated levels relative to GDP."

"The dizzying rise in the 10-year Treasury yield began with the [Federal Reserve's] rate cuts, and that's not coincidental," Lundin said. "The fact that the Fed may be losing some control over rates is in itself concerning, and is also adding fuel to the rise in yields."

Meanwhile, despite U.S. fiscal concerns, the dollar is strengthening because it "represents a safe haven in times of trouble, and also because of those higher yields," Lundin said. READ MORE

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1.9.25 - BRICS to Keep Ditching the US Dollar

Gold last traded at $2,670 an ounce. Silver at $30.11 an ounce.

EDITOR'S NOTE: The fight against de-dollarization is likely to be one of the Trump administration's top priorities. Despite the threats of tariffs, several BRICS countries are going full steam ahead in their efforts to supplant the dollar. Although, some member nations have expressed a desire to work with Trump. It will be interesting to watch this unfold in the early months of the Trump White House.

BRICS to Keep Ditching the US Dollar in 2025: Alliance Confirms -Watcher.Guru

by Joshua Ramos

On the heels of immense threats from the West and geopolitical concerns brewing, the BRICS economic alliance appears to remain steadfast in its commitment to ditching the US dollar in 2025. Indeed, the collective has seemingly confirmed the matter, as recent discussion pointed to their belief in de-dollarization as a certain necessity.

US President-elect Donald Trump has been outspoken in his defense of the greenback. Throughout this campaign for reelection, he continually reiterated the importance of keeping the dollar as the world’s currency. After his victory, he issued a warning to BRICS specifically, threatening 100% tariffs on the bloc seeking to create their own dollar alternative.

The last year has seen the BRICS economic alliance continue their notable ascent. Once just a five-nation collective, the group phase doubled in size with its most recent expansion. Moreover, it has big plans for the global economic market that have seen the West take an undeniably favorable stance.

Although Trump has warned of impending repercussions, the BRICS bloc has reiterated that they are likely to keep ditching the US dollar in 2025 through a recent confirmation. Indeed, the group discussed the reality that de-dollarization is a necessity so long as the United States continues doing one thing. READ MORE

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1.8.25 - Dollar's Share Of Global Reserves Hits 30-Year-Low

Gold last traded at $2,661 an ounce. Silver at $30.11 an ounce.

US Trade Deficit Widens on Largest Jump in Imports Since 2022 -Yahoo! Finance

As we get ready to swear in President-Elect Trump in a few weeks, he has made it very clear that trade - and our trade deficits - is at the top of his list. This will likely be no small feat as that deficit has seen a large widening recently.

(Bloomberg) -- The US trade deficit widened in November, reflecting the biggest jump in imports since March 2022 as companies accelerated shipments ahead of a possible dockworkers’ strike and in anticipation of potential tariffs by the Trump administration.

The gap in goods and services trade grew 6.2% from the prior month to $78.2 billion, Commerce Department data showed Tuesday. The figure was in line with the median projection of economists in a Bloomberg survey.

The value of imports increased 3.4% from a month earlier to $351.6 billion. Exports rose 2.7%. The figures aren’t adjusted for inflation.

The jump in imports was broad, including increases in consumer goods, capital equipment and motor vehicles, likely reflecting a preference by US companies to secure shipments in advance of potential tariffs. Moreover, many are hoping to mitigate disruptions from a potential strike by dockworkers with a mid-January deadline to reach a deal.

The figures follow an October downshift in demand for foreign merchandise after companies doubled up efforts to ensure they were well-stocked ahead of holiday-shopping season.

Goods and services trade in the third quarter subtracted from gross domestic product, and the latest net exports figures suggest a similar impact is possible in the final three-month period of 2024. READ MORE

Dollar's Share Of Global Reserves Hits 30-Year-Low As Central Banks Pile Into Gold, Alternates -Zero Hedge

The dollar has been steadily losing ground in the global marketplace, over the last few years in particular, and it doesn't appear the downward slide is even close to over. As gold, and other alternatives, offer a better option to the dollar; our currency becomes more at risk by the day.

by Wolf Richter via WolfStreet.com

The US dollar lost further ground as global reserve currency among many reserve currencies held by central banks. Its share has been zigzagging lower for many years as central banks have been diversifying their holdings to assets denominated in currencies other than the dollar. And they’ve also been diversifying into gold. But the dollar remains by far the dominant global reserve currency.

The share of USD-denominated foreign exchange reserves fell to 57.4% of total exchange reserves the lowest since 1994, according to the IMF’s COFER data for Q3 2024. USD-denominated foreign exchange reserves include US Treasury securities, US agency securities, US MBS, US corporate bonds, US stocks, and other USD-denominated assets held by central banks other than the Fed.

In Q1 2015, the USD’s share was still 66%. Over these 10 years, the dollar’s share of global reserve currencies has dropped by 8.6 percentage points. If this pace of decline continues, the dollar’s share will fall below 50% in less than 10 years, by the end of 2034.

The dollar’s share had already been below 50% in 1990 and 1991, at the final leg of its long plunge from a share of 85% in 1977 to 46% in 1991, after inflation had exploded in the US in the 1970s, and eventually the world lost confidence in the Fed’s ability or willingness to get this inflation under control.

But by the 1990s, central banks loaded up on dollar-assets again, until the euro came along. This chart shows the dollar’s share at the end of each year (2024 = Q3). VIEW CHARTS AND READ MORE

The Age Of Debt And Monetary Destruction -Daniel Lacalle

Spending and debt have been the cornerstones of growth and expansion in our economy, but how long can this method continue before it becomes untenable? Some say not much longer, as the "bubble" is getting ready to burst.

by Daniel Lacalle

If you want to really understand the current monetary system and the risks and opportunities it creates, you must read “The Age of Debt Bubbles“. This is a comprehensive, informed, and thorough analysis of the current global monetary system.

Debt bloats the global economy. Spending and debt, rather than savings and prudent investment, form the foundation of economic development.

This debt-based system, where sovereign debt is allegedly the safest asset and governments continue to stretch their solvency ratios, is constantly generating boom and bust cycles. Through a meticulous examination of historical data and trends, this book analyses the risks posed by the ever-expanding debt bubbles.

The book explains that debt has become a pervasive and inescapable feature of modern economies. The relentless pursuit of growth and profit with little equity involved has driven individuals, corporations, and governments to take on increasingly larger amounts of risk through indebtedness in exchange for lower returns, creating a fragile house of cards that is the root of all financial crises.

The Era of Increasing Debt Bubbles and Economic Instability: “An In-depth Analysis of Debt Crises, Asset Bubbles, and the Role of Monetary Policy” offers a thorough and exhaustive exploration of contemporary monetary policy, debt-fueled bubbles, and the economic consequences they entail. READ MORE

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1.7.25 - Will the stock-market boom end in 2025?

Gold last traded at $2,648 an ounce. Silver at $30.08 an ounce.

EDITOR'S NOTE: The stock market cruised through the holidays - and into the new year - on a high note, but will that momentum continue? According to some, the stellar performance of the market is "unsustainable".

America's stock-market boom will end in 2025 as markets punish the US for its yawning deficits, Rockefeller chairman says -Yahoo! Finance

by Jennifer Sor

The market expert Ruchir Sharma says that the stock market's momentum looks likely to sputter in 2025 and that it could falter as investors grow wary of the US's mounting debt problems.

In an op-ed article for the Financial Times published on Monday, the Rockefeller International chairman said he believed the US stock market could soon underperform global peers, breaking a long-running trend of US outperformance.

He estimated that over the next year the top stocks in the US could underperform the global market by about 10% — reflecting a much worse performance than in 2024, when the top US stocks outperformed the market by about 20%.

"Momentum investing looks poised to crash in a way that could hit many investors hard," Sharma wrote.

Speaking to CNBC later on Monday, Sharma pointed to signs that the trend of US outperformance looked unsustainable.

For one, valuations in the US remain high, but sentiment is more bullish compared with other areas of the world.

The US economy makes up about 30% of the global economy, but US stocks make up about 70% of the global equity market, Sharma said. Still, nearly all investors expect the US to keep outperforming the rest of the world. READ MORE

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1.6.25 - 2025: The Year of $3K Gold

Gold last traded at $2,633 an ounce. Silver at $29.93 an ounce.

EDITOR'S NOTE: Could 2025 be the big, breakout year for gold? Dozens of market watchers have said they believe gold is headed to $3,000-plus in value. For protection, diversification, and profit; now is the time to balance your portfolio with precious metals.

2025: The Year of $3K Gold -Daily Reckoning

by Zach Scheidt

Investors are eyeing gold very carefully right now. And it’s not hard to see why.

As you can see from the chart below, the yellow metal had a great year…

Long-time readers will know that I’ve been bullish on gold for a while.

Many investors have been flocking to gold in the last few years — and for good reason. It’s a great diversifier, it protects against inflation, and it’s a safe-haven asset when things go awry.

All of these things have led to a rise in gold demand and, subsequently, a run-up in gold prices. In fact, the average price of gold reached record highs several times this year — surpassing $2,700 by October.

Gold prices have been a bit more volatile, following Trump’s inauguration. But now that investors have had time to adjust to Trump’s win and a Republican sweep of the House and Senate, gold appears to be ready for its next leg higher.

I’ve had my eye on a price target of $3,000 per ounce since 2021.

And the post-election gold pullback is a good time to look at miners before it finally takes on $3k.

But first, let’s look at how gold reacted to Trump’s victory… VIEW CHARTS AND READ MORE

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1.3.25 - Can The Silver Price Rise To $100?

Gold last traded at $2,651 an ounce. Silver at $30.09 an ounce.

EDITOR'S NOTE: We now find ourselves starting our charge into the new year. New goals, new dreams, maybe even some new beginnings. One of the things everyone should be looking at this year is adding more silver to their portfolio. Once you read this report, you'll see why.

Can The Silver Price Rise To $100? -Investing Haven

In particular, silver might rise to $100 /oz in the timeframe 2027-2028.

Silver requires either exceptional market conditions like rising inflation or an extreme shortage in order to rise to $100 /oz which might not be its endpoint once it clears ATH at $50.

In this article, we analyze the long term silver charts in order to understand if a silver rise to $100 an Ounce is a feasible path. Particularly, we look at:

*Long term silver chart dynamics.

*Silver charts factoring in CPI impact.

*Potential catalysts to trigger a silver rally to $100.

*Intermarket correlations.

Our latest silver prediction is based on historical data, market correlations and chart readings. It’s a data driven way to analyze precious metals.

Note – the analyst team at InvestingHaven.com is unbiased. No silver perma-bulls over here.

An important quote from the article mentioned above:

To be honest, our viewpoint is that all conditions are in place for silver to run to its two higher targets: $34 and $50. The question why silver is not trading at those levels is a good question to ask. The ‘silver manipulation’ theme comes up as an answer. Concurrently, the other answer that comes up is ‘opportunity’: if an asset is undervalued, it usually is a matter of time until a rebalancing act occurs.

With that said, we will take a big picture viewpoint in this article. While the points outlined above are relevant in 2024 and 2025, we think in terms of “how high can silver go this decade” in this article.

Remember, a silver price rise to to $100 an ounce is not an idea that will materialize in 2025. If silver were to rise to $100, it would mark a secular top which is likely to happen late(r) this decade. VIEW FULL REPORT AND LINKED ARTICLES

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1.2.25 - The Real Inflation Number

Gold last traded at $2,657 an ounce. Silver at $29.56 an ounce.

EDITOR'S NOTE: I find this article, in a strange way, refreshing. We are being told inflation is settling down - resting in the 3.5% range - and yet everything in our lives seems to cost considerably more today than it did a year ago. Mr. King explains below ...

The Real Inflation Number -Daily Reckoning

by Byron King

What’s happening with inflation?

Allegedly, it’s back down in the 3.5% range, give or take; and to do it right one must give and take quite a bit. That is, again, the government number jockeys shamelessly cook the books, as we see from reviewing a site like ShadowStats.com.

if the government used the same methodology today as it used back in, say, 1980, we’d see a much higher rate of inflation. Instead of the advertised 3.5%, it might be more like 12%. And if you do things like buy a house, rent an apartment, buy a new car, pay insurance premiums, enjoy a top-shelf cut of meat from the grocery store, etc.?

Well, you know what I mean. There’s plenty of sticker shock out there, awaiting the unwary shopper. Still, prices for some things are stable, if not declining.

Yes, the cost of car insurance is soaring, but the price of gasoline in your car is down at least a bit over the past two years. And crude oil, for example, sells at around $70 per barrel, which is a source of relief at the pump; although you may also have noticed that lower-cost petroleum somehow doesn’t seem to translate into cheaper airline tickets if you travel much and track those eye-popping prices.

Meanwhile, prices for many other goods actually are falling appreciably. Look at, say, consumer electronics like new laptop computers (one of which I just bought at a remarkably low number), or a large-screen television set, and much more.

But consider where these electronic devices are made…

Those super-duper bargains on American shelves represent hard times in Asia. There, cutthroat competition and a general recession have forced companies and workers to scramble for every sliver of business and market share they can find. Many Asian firms are selling products at below production cost, just to keep the factories humming and avoid closure issues. Sure, it’s nice to have cheaper oil and low-cost electronics, but that’s not the be-all and end-all of growing the American economy. So, let’s move closer to home, where in Washington, D.C., the Federal Reserve still hints towards rate cuts. READ MORE

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