2024 Blog Archives

7.1.24 - High Cost Of Groceries Making You Sick? You're Not Alone

Gold last traded at $2,332 an ounce. Silver at $29.44 an ounce.

EDITOR'S NOTE: We've all been feeling the pinch of rising costs over the past few years. The reality of just how out of control it has become is shocking. The fact of the matter is, it's likely going to get worse before it gets any better.

If The High Cost Of Groceries Makes You Feel Sick, You Are Not Alone -The Economic Collapse

If you are really struggling with the high cost of living, I want you to know that you aren’t alone. In recent months, I have been hearing from so many people that feel like they are drowning financially. Have you experienced a palpable sense of panic when you compare your rising bills to the level of income that you are currently bringing in? So many people out there are stressed out of their minds because it has become such a struggle to pay the bills each month. As I discussed a few days ago, a typical U.S. household must now spend $1,069 more a month just to buy the exact same goods and services that it did three years ago. Over the course of an entire year, that is almost an extra $13,000 dollars. Month after month, prices just keep going higher, but those that are running things continue to insist that everything is just fine.

No, everything is not just fine.

Last week, a TikTok video about rising grocery prices at Walmart quickly garnered more than a million views. The person that made the video found a grocery order that he had placed two years ago, and he decided to hit the “Reorder All” button to see what that same order would cost today…

A recent TikTok video has gone viral, showing a user’s surprising experience with Walmart’s grocery prices. The user explained in his video that he tried to use the “Reorder All” button for an order he placed two years ago, which originally cost $126.67. To his shock, the same order would now cost $414.39. READ MORE

RealMoneyBlog - Free daily/weekly email

6.28.24 - Enormous Chain Files Unexpected Bankruptcy

Gold last traded at $2,325 an ounce. Silver at $29.11 an ounce.

EDITOR'S NOTE: The financial landscape across America has experienced numerous changes over the last few years, very few of them positive. The latest domino to fall has been an iconic staple of fast food for decades, Burger King.

Enormous Restaurant Chain Now Files Unexpected Bankruptcy -FrankNez.com

An enormous restaurant chain has now filed for a Chapter 11 bankruptcy due to heavy losses in revenue as a result of the global pandemic.

Burger King saw many of its franchisees file for bankruptcy with as many as 400 restaurants having to close its doors.

This is of course largely due to the pandemic which saw a massive increase in prices, a change in labor as well as a change in dining habits, which all accumulated to those restaurants having to close.

Many of these restaurants have found it difficult to focus on drive-thru service as well as takeout orders only, causing the start of Burger King’s bankruptcy.

Other restaurant chains have been able to thrive due to heavy investments in technology while those that did not, have struggled.

Although inflation has slightly stabilized, pressure on these restaurants have only increased, as many restaurant chains have raised their minimum wage, with California raising it to $20, reports The Street. READ MORE

RealMoneyBlog - Free daily/weekly email

6.27.24 - It's Not You. It's Bidenflation.

Gold last traded at $2,326 an ounce. Silver at $28.96 an ounce.

EDITOR'S NOTE: If you are one of the many who have felt the squeeze of inflation the last few years, a writer from the Wall Street Journal accused us of being "too stupid" to realize how good things really are under the current administration. We now have someone who has stepped up in our defense, Sean Ring; as he tells the real story of what's been taking place.

It’s Not You. It’s Bidenflation. -Daily Reckoning

by Sean Ring

Joke Biden didn’t invent inflation. But he inadvertently attached his name to it, much like Jimmy Carter did in the 1970s.

A few months ago, Greg Ip wrote the most condescendingly asinine article The Wall Street Journal ever had the misfortune to publish. In “What’s Wrong With the Economy? It’s You, Not the Data,” Ip alleged The Great Unwashed™ were too stupid to realize how good everything was under Dear Leader Potatohead Biden.

Ip wrote:

Yes, some individuals faced higher inflation (someone who bought a house, for instance) but, for the average person, inflation went down.

When it comes to the economy, the vibes are at war with the facts, and the vibes are winning. This is obviously bad news for President Biden’s re-election hopes. He can’t exactly tell voters that they are wrong; he would be called out of touch. And it probably wouldn’t change anything. The vibes seem symptomatic of a broader pessimism disconnected from the data.

It’s tempting to chalk this up to a misunderstanding. Lower inflation means the level of prices is still rising, just more slowly than before. People sometimes conflate inflation with the level of prices and believe inflation is getting worse because the price level keeps going up (it rarely goes down).

The thing is, Ippie thinks you should care more about the math than your wallet. Sure, inflation can fall (disinflation) while prices keep rising, and deflation (falling prices) only happens in industries where the government can’t get its paw in the jar. But the government policy counts, not the fact you can’t buy steak next month, according to Ip.

Idiotic.

If a product cost $1 two years ago, and last year’s inflation was 10%, and this year’s is 5% (year-on-year): yes, inflation fell 50%. But it also means that the product cost $1.10 last year and $1.16 today.

That’s much more expensive (16%) for the lower and middle classes, as food, shelter, and energy costs eat up a lot more of their wallets than those of rich folk. READ MORE

RealMoneyBlog - Free daily/weekly email

6.26.24 - Is Economy in Worse Shape than we Think?

Gold last traded at $2,298 an ounce. Silver at $28.77 an ounce.

Citigroup and Bank of America Predict Gold Prices Could Reach $3,000 Within a Year -Business Insider

The gold market has been getting one favorable review after another when it comes to performance expectations this year; the latest from Citigroup & BofA. It comes as no surprise, as the overall global economy is on very shaky ground.

by Jerry Lin

Gold prices have shown strong performance this year, increasing nearly 13% year-to-date and currently trading at $2,326.94 per ounce.

Recent reports from Bank of America and Citigroup suggest that gold prices could surge to $3,000 per ounce within the next 12-18 months, representing a potential 30% increase from current levels. Key factors driving this bullish outlook include robust physical demand, central bank purchases, concerns over U.S. Treasury securities, and anticipated Federal Reserve interest rate cuts.

Bank of America (BofA) forecasts that gold prices could reach $3,000 per ounce in the next 12-18 months. BofA emphasized that this scenario would require an increase in non-commercial demand, potentially triggered by Federal Reserve interest rate cuts, which could lead to inflows into physically backed gold ETFs. Central bank purchases are another critical factor, as efforts to reduce the U.S. dollar's share in foreign exchange portfolios may drive central banks to buy more gold.

BofA also highlighted that concerns over U.S. Treasury securities could sustain a gold bull market. They pointed out that significant volatility in the U.S. Treasury market represents a "tail risk" that becomes more probable over time. Moreover, the market does not need an actual disaster to spur demand for safe-haven assets; increasing fears of a potential disaster are sufficient. The liquidity of the U.S. debt market has deteriorated, and with the political deadlock and rising debt levels in the U.S., there are legitimate reasons to worry about unexpected shocks. READ MORE

11 Signs That The U.S. Economy Is In Far Worse Shape Than Most People Think -The Economic Collapse

The notion that our economy is in bad shape, and heading in an even worse direction, is not a tough sell. The challenges seem to be mounting with no real solutions being offered. Now some are saying that things may even be worse than we realize.

Unless you are living under a bridge or you are eagerly drinking the kool-aid that the mainstream media is dishing out, you probably understand that the economy has been struggling. Survey after survey has found that the American people are deeply dissatisfied with how the economy has been performing, and as a result it has become the number one issue this election season. But even though a large portion of the population is not happy about how things have been going, the truth is that the situation is far more dire than most people realize. Just this week we have received quite a bit of very troubling news, and the outlook for the months ahead is very bleak. The following are 11 signs that the U.S. economy is in far worse shape than most people think…

#1 Just like in 2008, delinquencies are on the rise. In fact, credit card delinquencies have now reached the highest level that we have seen in more than 10 years…

Meanwhile, more consumers aren’t making loan payments on time. Credit card delinquencies have hit their highest level in over a decade, and auto delinquencies are also spiking. This could prove to be yet another tripwire for the stock market, as consumer spending accounts for about 70% of U.S. economic activity.

#2 The commercial real estate crisis just continues to escalate. An article that originally appeared in the New York Times claims that major Wall Street banks have “begun offloading their portfolios of commercial real estate loans hoping to cut their losses”...READ MORE

The S&P 500 could crater 48% when the stock-market bubble pops and recession finally hits, elite strategist says -Business Insider

There has been a lot of talk of a market pullback, with varying opinions as to what that's going to look like. The financial strain on businesses is probably the worst it's been in decades and, if these analysts are correct, company valuations will plummet and many of them may actually become obsolete.

by Theron Mohamed

The S&P 500 could be cut in half when the stock-market bubble pops and the US economy sinks into recession, Paul Dietrich says.

"I believe the upcoming recession will result in a deeper stock market decline than we experienced in 2000 and 2008," B. Riley Wealth Management's chief investment strategist said in his latest monthly commentary.

Dietrich detailed warning signs that indicate stocks are hugely overvalued and close to suffering a correction. For example, he pointed to the S&P 500's price-to-earnings ratio and inflation-adjusted Shiller PE ratio, which, excluding past recessions, are both at multi-decade highs, and the benchmark index's historically low dividend yield of 1.35%.

He also noted the market's recent gains have been driven by investors' excitement about a handful of stocks like Microsoft and Nvidia, and their hopes that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates later this year — not fundamentals like rising corporate earnings.

Indeed, Dietrich compared the immense hype around AI with the internet mania during the dot-com bubble. He also flagged the Buffett Indicator, which has surged to 188% this year — close to the 200% mark where buying stocks would be "playing with fire" in Warren Buffett's view. READ MORE

RealMoneyBlog - Free daily/weekly email

6.25.24 - Gold Price Prediction for July 1, 2024

Gold last traded at $2,319 an ounce. Silver at $28.92 an ounce.

EDITOR'S NOTE: There have been plenty of predictions as to where gold prices will finally settle at the close of 2024; and most of them are suggesting significant gains. We are only at the half way mark so what might we see in the near term? This forecast is calling for a pretty aggressive upside move over the course of the next week!

Gold Price Prediction for July 1, 2024 -Watcher.Guru

by Vinod Dsouza

Gold prices are trading sideways this month as the U.S. dollar gained strength in the global markets. The XAU/USD index, which tracks the performance of gold shows its price hovering around $2,325 on Tuesday’s opening bell. It is down by nearly 9 points in the charts and shed 0.38% of its value in the last hour.

Now that gold prices are on the back foot, will the precious metal dust itself and rally in the indices again? In this article, we will highlight a price prediction for gold for July 1, 2024.

Leading on-chain metrics ‘PricePredictions’ has painted a bullish picture for gold for July 1, 2024. According to the price forecast, the precious metal could kick-start a rally in the next five days and deliver profits.

PricePredictions has estimated the price of gold could breach the $2,500 mark in July 2024. The forecast estimates that gold prices could reach $2,520 on July 1, 2024. READ MORE

RealMoneyBlog - Free daily/weekly email

6.24.24 - Banking regulators: weakness in four large lenders

Gold last traded at $2,333 an ounce. Silver at $29.55 an ounce.

EDITOR'S NOTE: Is this satire? Or an insult to the intelligence of the American people? Once more we have to stomach big bank solvency theater; as the regulators pretend to care. The Fed and the FDIC require a bank to prove its ability to unwind itself in the event of a collapse or catastrophe, the bank is woefully incapable and yet, they are given a pass until the next time they are required to prove their ability. At the end of the day, the big banks make the rules and they know it.

Regulators hit Citigroup, JPMorgan Chase, Goldman Sachs and Bank of America over living will plans -CNBC

by Hugh Son

Banking regulators on Friday disclosed that they found weaknesses in the resolution plans of four of the eight largest American lenders.

The Federal Reserve and the Federal Deposit Insurance Corp. said the so-called living wills — plans for unwinding huge institutions in the event of distress or failure — of Citigroup, JPMorgan Chase, Goldman Sachs and Bank of America filed in 2023 were inadequate.

Regulators found fault with the way each of the banks planned to unwind their massive derivatives portfolios. Derivatives are Wall Street contracts tied to stocks, bonds, currencies or interest rates.

For example, when asked to quickly test Citigroup’s ability to unwind its contracts using different inputs than those chosen by the bank, the firm came up short, according to the regulators. That part of the exercise appears to have snared all the banks that struggled with the exam.

“An assessment of the covered company’s capability to unwind its derivatives portfolio under conditions that differ from those specified in the 2023 plan revealed that the firm’s capabilities have material limitations,” regulators said of Citigroup.

The living wills are a key regulatory exercise mandated in the aftermath of the 2008 global financial crisis. Every other year, the largest US. banks must submit their plans to credibly unwind themselves in the event of catastrophe. Banks with weaknesses have to address them in the next wave of living will submissions due in 2025.

While JPMorgan, Goldman and Bank of America’s plans were each deemed to have a “shortcoming” by both regulators, Citigroup was considered by the FDIC to have a more serious “deficiency,” meaning the plan wouldn’t allow for an orderly resolution under U.S. bankruptcy code. READ MORE

RealMoneyBlog - Free daily/weekly email

6.21.24 - Will this be the AI bubble?

Gold last traded at $2,320 an ounce. Silver at $29.55 an ounce.

EDITOR'S NOTE: Does the current stock market frenzy resemble the same mania we saw before the dot-com bubble and the 2008 housing bubble? It does, but with one key difference, the addition of the massive fiscal stimulus in response to the pandemic. We have an overvalued market with the same levels of euphoria that proceeded past crashes, with the added stress of loose monetary policy and rapidly expanding debt.

AI stock frenzy resembles dot-com bubble and may explode disastrously, experts warn -Business Insider

by Theron Mohamed

Experts say the frenzy around AI stocks resembles the last two major market bubbles — and could end in disaster if investors get spooked.

Every financial mania is different, but the current tech boom shows "some similarities with the run-up to both the dot-com and 2008 housing bubbles," Nathan Burks, Adetokunbo Fadahunsi, and Ann Marie Hibbert told Business Insider in an email.

The trio co-authored a paper titled "Financial Contagion: A Tale of Three Bubbles" in 2021. Burks was a member of West Virginia University's finance department at the time and now works as a researcher at a crypto options-trading platform called Panoptic.

Fadahunsi is an assistant professor of statistics at George Mason University, while Hibbert is the interim chair of WVU's finance department.

The bubble experts pointed to the Federal Reserve's "relatively loose" monetary policy as one common factor between this market and the last two big bubbles. But they underscored one big difference is the "unprecedented fiscal stimulus in the wake of the COVID-19 pandemic."

In other words, low interest rates and an ample money supply were contributors then and now, and the US government added fuel to the woodpile with its trillions of dollars in emergency spending during the pandemic, and its large-scale infrastructure and industrial programs since then.

"This combination of aggressive fiscal and monetary expansion, along with broader sentiment largely being driven by Big Tech (high-beta) stocks, has thus given way to an elevated level of overoptimism that is particularly similar to the foundations of the dot-com bubble as outlined in our paper," they told BI. READ MORE

RealMoneyBlog - Free daily/weekly email

6.20.24 - Countries worried about the dollar are buying gold

Gold last traded at $2,359 an ounce. Silver at $30.74 an ounce.

EDITOR'S NOTE: More bad news for the dollar; the list of nations looking to abandon the greenback is growing rather long. And these countries intend to buy gold to hedge their bets.

More rich countries worried about the dollar want to buy gold -Business Insider

Emerging economies, such as China and its allies, have been hoarding gold to diversify from the US dollar.

But they're not the only gold buyers.

Even central banks from advanced economies are planning to load up on gold, a World Gold Council survey released on Monday indicates.

This enthusiasm for the yellow metal has come even though the spot gold price is hovering at record levels, about $2,330 an ounce, after hitting nearly $2,450 last month.

The WGC survey, conducted from February to April, found that 29% of 70 central banks — the biggest share the WGC has observed since 2019 — were planning to buy gold over the next 12 months.

Among the central banks, about 15% of those in advanced economies said they planned to do so — also the most since 2019. Meanwhile, about 40% of emerging-market central banks said they'd be buying in the coming year.

The central banks' key reasons for more gold purchases included rebalancing their reserves and hedging against risks such as rising inflation, US dollar exposure, and market instability. Eight out of the 20 central banks that said they were planning to buy more gold also cited higher economic risks in countries where reserve currencies are from because of issues such as the rising US budget deficit. READ MORE

RealMoneyBlog - Free daily/weekly email

6.19.24 - More companies file bankruptcy, citing inflation

Gold last traded at $2,329 an ounce. Silver at $29.79 an ounce.

Gold rush to endure through 2024 though $3,000 mark may prove elusive -Yahoo! Finance

There's no doubt gold is in a bull market and, given the global demand and building economic pressures, the run may have just begun. Some may question how high gold can really go, but the yellow metal is gaining more supporters by the day.

By Brijesh Patel and Ashitha Shivaprasad

SINGAPORE (Reuters) - Gold's lightning rally to successive record highs shows every sign of continuing in the second half of 2024 as the fundamental case for bullion remains firmly in place, though $3,000 per ounce looks just out of reach, traders and industry experts said.

Investors have flocked in droves towards the precious metal, driven by expectations for monetary easing, geopolitical tension in Europe and the Middle East and - most notably - central bank purchases led by China.

Spot gold is trading around $2,300 per ounce after hitting a record $2,449.89 on May 20, gaining more than 11% so far this year.

"There are lots of reasons driving gold right now..., but one of the major factors is China," Ruth Crowell, CEO of the London Bullion Market Association, told Reuters on the sidelines of the Asia Pacific Precious Metals conference in Singapore.

"Usually China and Japan have been budget shoppers, but given the state of the economy, real estate challenges and equity markets, gold is a safe choice... I think gold is going to be of interest for some time."

Central banks across the globe, especially China, have been ramping up reserves held in gold due to currency depreciation and geopolitical and economic risks.

Bullion is traditionally known as a favoured hedge against geopolitical and economic risks, thriving in a low-interest rate environment.

"Physical demand for gold is strong, but we have not seen retail investment demand coming in yet like exchange-traded funds, demand from the United States...I see prices reaching $2,600 - $2,700 very easily this year," said Amar Singh, Head of Metals - Asia Pacific and Middle East at StoneX. READ MORE

More companies announce bankruptcies, shutter operations, citing inflation -The Center Square

The consequences of sustained inflation are taking their toll. While consumers have been feeling the pinch for some time now, retailers are now the victims of this "higher for longer" inflationary period; and they are beginning to fall like dominoes. As the dollar continues to erode, and more and more Americans have to tighten their belts to the bare essentials, prepare for more news of decades and centuries-old companies having to close their doors forever.

by Bethany Blankley

More companies are declaring bankruptcy and shutting down operations, citing inflation and high costs. Inflation and the economy remains a top issue among all voters, according to a recent The Center Square Voters' Voice Poll.

Retailers are closing nearly 3,200 stores this year, according to a recent analysis from CoreSight Research. The closures are a 24% increase from 2023.

U.S. drug stores and pharmacy closures led to 8 million square feet of shuttered retail space this year, the research company said. It also notes that retailers are losing inventory and customers due to retail theft. “Retail shrink” is closely connected to “organized retail crime,” it notes.

Out of the 3,200 being closed, the majority are being closed by roughly 30 retailers, with Family Dollar closing the most of over 600, according to the data, CBS News reported .

Tupperware is the latest to announce it's permanently closing its last operating production plant in the U.S. in Hemingway, South Carolina. All of its 148 workers will be laid off, the first in September, followed by others in waves through next January. Tupperware announced its plans last week, stating it would continue to produce its products in a plant in Lerma, Mexico. READ MORE

Russia Makes Major Announcement About BRICS Currency -Watcher.Guru

Russia has announced that they have encountered a few speed bumps in their quest to establish a BRICS currency and de-dollarize the globe; but rest assured, these setbacks have not dampened their resolve. If anything these hurdles have made their mission of dethroning the dollar more focused.

by Vinod Dsouza

Russia is all set to host the BRICS+ Forum 2024 meeting on June 21 and a delegation of 21 countries, including 200 mayors will attend the summit. The forum is held in the Kazan region of Russia where the alliance is looking to connect with leaders of the grassroots levels. On the heels of the summit, Russia’s Deputy Foreign Minister Sergei Ryabkov provided the latest update about the forming of the BRICS currency.

Ryabkov made a major announcement that the idea of a BRICS currency to challenge the US dollar has not been shelved. However, he explained that the alliance is facing challenges in the implementation of the upcoming currency. Despite the obstacles, Ryabkov revealed that the currency formation will be decided in the upcoming BRICS summit in October. “I would not say that this idea (BRICS currency) has been shelved,” said Ryabkov. “But this does not mean that this idea has been postponed,” he said. Ryabkov revealed that the bloc aims to provide an update on BRICS currency in less than a year.

He confirmed that the formation of a BRICS currency will be kick-started faster than expected. “Quite bold, quite innovative scheme in this area will be worked out. And in a future that is not calculated in years and decades, but much faster,” he said. READ MORE

RealMoneyBlog - Free daily/weekly email

6.18.24 - Thousands of Americans are Going “Off Grid”

Gold last traded at $2,329 an ounce. Silver at $29.54 an ounce.

EDITOR'S NOTE: There has been no shortage of upheaval in the economy over the last several years. As a result, there has been a considerable rise in Americans wanting to go off the grid; the number of those who consider themselves preppers has doubled in the US since 2017. Given the world's volatility, a little prepping may go a long way.

Hundreds Of Thousands Of Americans Are Going “Off Grid” In Anticipation Of What Is Coming -The Economic Collapse

As our society descends into chaos, vast numbers of people are choosing to pull the plug and walk away. Of course it is nearly impossible to completely escape the ubiquitous madness that is seemingly all around us, but many are finding that an “off grid” lifestyle gives them the best opportunity to insulate themselves as much as possible. When you become less dependent on the system, what happens to the system has less of an impact on you. Unfortunately, it appears that our system is heading into a full-blown meltdown, and a significant portion of the population is feverishly making preparations in anticipation of what is coming.

According to Reuters, it has been estimated that there are now approximately 20 million “preppers” in the United States…

Brook Morgan surveyed booths at the “Survival & Prepper Show” in Colorado that were stocked with boxes of ammunition, mounds of trauma medical kits, and every type of knife imaginable.

A self-described “30-year-old lesbian from Indiana,” Morgan is one of a new breed of Americans getting ready to survive political upheaval and natural catastrophes, a pursuit that until recently was largely associated with far-right movements such as white nationalists since the 1980s. READ MORE

RealMoneyBlog - Free daily/weekly email

6.17.24 - Nvidia, Apple and GameStop: The Entire Stock Market

Gold last traded at $2,319 an ounce. Silver at $29.47 an ounce.

EDITOR'S NOTE: If you were to listen to the talking heads on Wall Street, you'd likely be convinced that everything is coming up roses in the stock market. According to this author, whatever "strength" exists is these few stocks controlling the averages. The rest of the market? It should be a major concern.

Nvidia, Apple And GameStop Are The Entire Stock Market Right Now…And That's Dangerous -ZeroHedge

Submitted by QTR's Fringe Finance

Everybody knows it but nobody is giving it any serious consideration: the entire market is being driven by Nvidia, Apple and even GameStop. And when one, if not all three of these names starts to experience some selling, they are likely taking the whole market with it.

I have been making note of the fact that Apple and Nvidia could be the market's black swans for the better part of a year now. And forget about cash on the sidelines eventually drying up as a result of savings running out, the market is also not taking into account multiple looming red flags for these names.

Zero Hedge has been all over the story of "bad" market breadth that no one on Wall Street seems to want to notice or talk about out loud. They wrote on X today: Forget about the Mag 7: it's all about the Top 3 where it is now daily race who can buyback the most stock.

For Apple, the company remains in the crosshairs of a massive antitrust investigation, the likes of which threw a cold blanket on Microsoft for the better part of a decade in the early 2000s. This is a very real risk that looms under the surface of the company's buybacks, which are likely a large portion of the bid now. The company's most recent 'innovation', the Vision Pro has also all but disappeared from public discourse after receiving tepid reviews.

Also, Apple and Nvidia share something in common: their valuations, at 33x and 77x ttm earnings, respectively, are extremely aggressive. There is a far better case for an air pocket under these valuations than there is over them. So on top of 5.5% rates, bone dry consumer savings, record high credit card debt, unmarked commercial real estate books and continued debilitating inflation, there's valuation risk. READ MORE

RealMoneyBlog - Free daily/weekly email

6.14.24 - $3,000/oz gold

Gold last traded at $2,332 an ounce. Silver at $29.54 an ounce.

EDITOR'S NOTE: We began 2024 with some fringe forecasts of $3,000/oz gold by year's end; at the time, this seemed optimistic. Now here we are at the half-way mark of the year and $3,000/oz is being regarded as an inevitability, it's just a matter of when.

Gold prices likely to reach as high as $3,000/oz over the next 12 months: Citi -Investing.com

by Vahid Karaahmetovic

Gold prices could surge up to $3,000 over the next 12 months, Citi analysts said, as a combination of strong physical demand, central bank purchases, and macroeconomic factors continue to support a bullish outlook for the yellow metal.

“The gold price path is unlikely to be linear, but average prices should trend higher in 2024 and 2025,” Citi analysts wrote in a note.

“We see the market supported well above $2,000-2,200/oz and regularly testing nominal ATHs into end-2024,” before surging to $3,000 in 2025, the firm added.

Several key factors underpin this bullish outlook.

Firstly, the market’s asymmetric risk skew has already demonstrated resilience, with gold prices rallying to $2,400 per ounce despite a strong US dollar, high interest rates, and robust equity markets.

“A negative turn in US growth exceptionalism should be positive for gold, enhancing bids for duration and haven assets, all-else equal,” the note continues. READ MORE

RealMoneyBlog - Free daily/weekly email

6.13.24 - Is a crash worse than 1929 on the horizon?

Gold last traded at $2,304 an ounce. Silver at $28.95 an ounce.

EDITOR'S NOTE: We could be looking at the rise before the fall for the S&P 500, this according to Mark Spitznagel. He's referred to as a "Black Swan" investor due to his prediction of a devastating market downturn to come. He's not alone, as there seems to be trouble brewing in the equity markets.

'Black Swan' investor sees the S&P 500 jumping another 12% — followed by the worst crash since 1929 -Markets Insider

By Theron Mohamed

A "Black Swan" investor expects the S&P 500 to climb another 12% and breach 6,000 points for the first time — and then suffer its worst crash since the Great Depression.

Mark Spitznagel, the founder and chief of Universa Investments, told Business Insider in an email:

"I've been saying this for a year and a half because people got 2022 so incredibly wrong (we're not in the 70s!). The Fed recklessly popped the greatest credit bubble in human history and now as people realize that the Fed needs to about-face, they're going to get increasingly juked the other way in a face-ripping rally. At the point of euphoria — which is coming — the high will be in and the market will crash worse than the global financial crisis."

He added: "What matters more than my views on this are how Universa's clients are positioned for it — for both a face-ripping rally and for the worst crash since 1929."

Universa specializes in protecting portfolios against extreme and unpredictable "tail risks" in markets. The firm's scientific advisor is Nassim Taleb, the author of "The Black Swan: The Impact of the Highly Improbable."

The S&P has soared by nearly 30% from its October lows to trade at record highs of more than 5,300 points. Investors have piled into stocks like Nvidia — up over 150% since the start of this year — as they wager Big Tech will be big winners from the artificial intelligence boom. READ MORE

RealMoneyBlog - Free daily/weekly email

6.12.24 - Dollar and euro trade halted on Russia’s biggest exchange

Gold last traded at $2,318 an ounce. Silver at $29.58 an ounce.

Bond giant PIMCO sees another wave of bank failures coming as commercial mortgage trouble mounts -Markets Insider

The regional banks are indeed in trouble, and the mainstream media are finally admitting it. 120-130 regional banks have high concentrations of CRE. With high rates, low profitability and drastically reduced values; there is really no way out.

by Filip De Mott

A "very high" concentration of distressed commercial real estate loans will be drive another spate of bank failures, Pimco's global head of real estate, John Murray, told Bloomberg.

"The real wave of distress is just starting," Murray said.

Ever since interest rates spiked two years ago, heavy attention has been paid to commercial real estate as doubt grows over property owners' ability to refinance debt.

Defaults have risen across the sector amid higher borrowing costs and slumping demand, with the latter especially true for office buildings, which have struggled against remote work trends.

This week, Fitch Ratings revised its office delinquency forecasts up to 8.4% and 11% for 2024 and 2025, respectively.

The main lenders to the sector have been mid-sized regional banks, and worries of fallout have intensified on Wall Street. According to Bloomberg, regional lenders who jumped into real estate have watched assets fall to a fraction of their peak value. READ MORE

Dollar and euro trade halted on Russia’s biggest exchange due to new U.S. sanctions -CNBC

This would be unsettling news on its own; but this is on the heels of the BRICS announcing it is the final stages of its de-dollarizarion movement. The new BRICS payment system has been confirmed and will now be a global competitor of the US dollar.

by Reuters

New U.S. sanctions against Russia will shut down trading in dollars and euros on its leading financial marketplace, the Moscow Exchange, the bourse and the central bank said on Wednesday.

“Due to the introduction of restrictive measures by the United States against the Moscow Exchange Group, exchange trading and settlements of deliverable instruments in U.S. dollars and euros are suspended,” the central bank said.

It added that it would use over-the-counter trading data to set official exchange rates for the dollar and euro.

The bank rushed out a statement, despite a public holiday in Russia, to reassure people that their dollar and euro bank deposits were secure.

“Companies and individuals can continue to buy and sell U.S. dollars and euros through Russian banks. All funds in U.S. dollars and euros in the accounts and deposits of citizens and companies remain safe,” it said.

The Moscow Exchange, Russia’s biggest bourse, also said share trading and money market trades settled in dollars and euros would cease. READ MORE

Consumer Prices Hold At Record Highs - Up 20% Since Biden Elected -ZeroHedge

Our biggest takeaway from this article ... overall, prices are up over 19.5% since Bidenomics was unleashed. The administration may keep claiming inflation is slowing, but those of us who buy groceries know the opposite to be true.

The headline consumer price index was unchanged MoM in May - the smallest change since July 2022 - just less than the +0.1% MoM expected. On a YoY basis, headline CPI rose 3.3% (less than the 3.4% exp) - but very much stuck in a range well above the 2% target for over year now...

Energy was the biggest drag on the headline CPI MoM...(Gasoline prices tumbled 3.6% in May from April, one key reason why the headline CPI was flat on the month.)

Core CPI rose 0.2% MoM (below the 0.3% exp) pulling the YoY change down to 3.4% (from 3.6% and below the 3.5% exp). That is the lowest Core CPI YoY since April 2021...

Core CPI has not had a down-month since President Biden was elected.

Core Services inflation slowed notably MoM...

The shelter index increased 0.4 percent in May and was the largest factor in the monthly increase in the index for all items less food and energy. VIEW CHARTS AND READ MORE

RealMoneyBlog - Free daily/weekly email

6.11.24 - UBS: Buy the Dips

Gold last traded at $2,316 an ounce. Silver at $29.28 an ounce.

EDITOR'S NOTE: Trying to time markets when it comes to buying and selling can be difficult to get right; however, UBS is recommending to their clients to buy the dips. Their analysts see geopolitical tensions, under-reporting by the IMF and the upcoming US election all as reasons to have an allocation in gold.

UBS: Gold dips to be bought, not sold -Yahoo! Finance

In a note Monday, UBS analysts advised that recent dips in the gold price are opportunities to buy, not sell. The firm's note follows a more than 3% decline in the yellow metal on Friday after the latest US employment data.

Employment and earnings data sprung positive surprises. Key factors to watch this week include the May US Consumer Price Index (CPI) and the Federal Reserve meeting.

Furthermore, China's reported lack of gold reserve additions in May sparked some concern. however, UBS highlights potential under-reporting by the International Monetary Fund (IMF). They reiterate their previous recommendation of buying gold on dips around $2,250-$2,300 per ounce.

UBS acknowledges that near-term upside surprises in the CPI could put downward pressure on gold prices. However, they believe the strong job market data may not reflect the whole picture, pointing to a rise in the unemployment rate and a decline in the job openings-to-unemployment ratio.

Looking ahead, UBS expects the Fed to adjust its projections to reflect two rate cuts in 2024, with inflation still moderating. They maintain a base case of a rate cut in September.

Central bank gold buying remains a factor, with Poland adding to their reserves in May. UBS anticipates total demand reaching 950-1,000 metric tons in 2024. Given ongoing geopolitical tensions and the upcoming US elections, UBS sees gold as a valuable portfolio hedge, recommending an allocation of around 5% for a USD-balanced portfolio. READ MORE

RealMoneyBlog - Free daily/weekly email

6.10.24 - 'Dirty Little Secret Called Zelle'

Gold last traded at $2,310 an ounce. Silver at $29.72 an ounce.

EDITOR'S NOTE: As we continue to move forward into a completely digital world, more and more reasons to be wary are coming to light. This most recent instance involves Zelle, a payment platform used by many. Does the convenience outweigh the risk?

JPMorgan Chase, Bank of America and Wells Fargo Customers Lose $456,000,000 in One Year To 'Dirty Little Secret Called Zelle': Senate Committee Chairman -The Daily Hodl

JPMorgan Chase, Bank of America and Wells Fargo are failing to protect customers from hundreds of millions of dollars in scams and fraud per year, according to a US Senate panel.

At a hearing held by the Permanent Subcommittee on Investigations, Democratic Senator and Chairman Richard Blumenthal said the banking giants’ customers submitted claims to recover $456 million in 2022 – all due to fraud and scams on the payments network Zelle.

“The banks of America have a dirty little secret. It’s called Zelle…

Zelle markets itself as ‘A fast and easy way to send and receive money.’ But, as this Committee has found, a fast and easy way to lose money is often what happens on Zelle.”

Senator Blumenthal says Zelle – a network owned by seven US banks including Chase, BofA and Wells Fargo – creates a veil of security while leaving customers far too vulnerable to fraud.

“Zelle transfers are nearly instant and irreversible, and by the time a consumer knows they’ve been scammed, usually it’s too late to do anything about it – at least according to Zelle and according to the banks that own, control, and in effect operate Zelle…

Zelle and the banks that own it offer to customers the appearance of the trust they feel they deserve. But the risks there are real and present, and they simply are failing to protect consumers in the way that they deserve.” READ MORE

RealMoneyBlog - Free daily/weekly email

6.7.24 - Banking Crisis, Stage Two

Gold last traded at $2,305 an ounce. Silver at $29.30 an ounce.

EDITOR'S NOTE: Many banking experts warned the banking crisis of last Spring was far from over, it appears they were correct. Which bank will be the first domino to fall in stage two? Will it be yours? All we can do is prepare well for what lies ahead; Mr. Rickards suggests holding gold to preserve your wealth.

Banking Crisis, Stage Two -Daily Reckoning

by James Rickards

I’m sure you recall the banking crisis of March to May 2023.

It began with the collapse of the little-known Silvergate Bank on March 8. This was followed the next day by the collapse of the much larger Silicon Valley Bank (SVB) on March 9. SVB had over $120 billion in uninsured deposits.

Bank deposits over $250,000 each are not covered by FDIC insurance. Those depositors stood to lose all their money over the insured amount. This would have led to the collapse of hundreds of startup tech businesses in Silicon Valley that had placed their working capital on deposit at SVB.

There were also much larger businesses such as Cisco and at least one large cryptocurrency exchange that had billions of dollars on deposit there. Those businesses would have taken huge write-downs based on the size of their uninsured deposits.

On March 9, the FDIC said that indeed the excess deposits were uninsured, and depositors would get "receivership certificates" of uncertain value and zero liquidity instead.

By March 11, the FDIC reversed course and said all deposits would be insured. The Federal Reserve intervened and said they would take any U.S. Treasury securities from member banks in exchange for par value in cash even if the bonds were only worth 80% of par (which most were).

That Sunday night they also closed Signature Bank, a New York-based bank with crypto links. The damage wasn't done. On March 19, the Swiss National Bank forced a merge of UBS and Credit Suisse, one of the largest banks in the world. Credit Suisse was on the edge of insolvency.

Finally, on May 1, First Republic Bank, with over $225 billion in assets, was ordered closed by the government and sold to JPMorgan.

It was the mother of all bailouts and seemed to leave stock market investors unfazed. The issue was, and is: Once you've guaranteed every deposit and agreed to finance every bond at par value, what's left in your bag of tricks? What can you do in the next crisis that you haven't already done — except nationalize the banks? READ MORE

RealMoneyBlog - Free daily/weekly email

6.6.24 - 8 warning signs of a stock market bubble

Gold last traded at $2,375 an ounce. Silver at $31.31 an ounce.

EDITOR'S NOTE: There never seems to be a shortage of those who suggest that a market - any market - is going to go up while, at the same time, there are just as many suggesting it's going down. At the end of the day, does anyone really know? All we can do is look at history as well as market fundamentals to make an educated guess for the future.

There are 8 warning signs of a stock market bubble and 6 of them have already flashed, UBS says -Yahoo! Finance

by Matthew Fox

There's been a lot of talk about the stock market being in a bubble over the past year as hype for generative artificial intelligence drives stock prices to record highs.

In a recent note from UBS, strategist Andrew Garthwaite outlined the eight warning signs of a stock market bubble — and according to Garthwaite, six of them are already flashing.

That means the stock market isn't in a bubble yet, but could be soon.

"The upside risk is that we end up in a bubble. If we are in such a situation, then we believe it is similar to 1997 not 1999," Garthwaite said.

That's important because stock market bubbles often lead to a painful 80% decline once it pops, but Garthwaite says we're not there just yet.

"We only invest for the bubble thesis if we are in 1997 not 1999 (which we think we are)," Garthwaite said.

These are the eight stock market bubble warning signs, according to Garthwaite. READ MORE

RealMoneyBlog - Free daily/weekly email

6.5.24 - Almost Everyone Is Struggling

Gold last traded at $2,356 an ounce. Silver at $30.06 an ounce.

Hackers Targeting 1,500 Banks and Their Customers in Push To Drain Accounts Across 60 Countries: Report - The Daily Hodl

Hackers are at it again. According to this report, they're in the midst of a global effort to go after personal bank accounts. We can add this to the already long list of reasons why modern banking feels nowhere near safe.

by Alex Richardson

Black hat hackers have reportedly unleashed malicious software targeting over 1,500 banks and their customers worldwide.

Security researchers at IBM say a revamped version of the Grandoreiro banking trojan has just rolled out, enabling attackers to perform banking fraud in 60 countries.

The malware allows attackers to send email notices that appear to be urgent government requests for payments.

Users are told they can click a link to view an invoice or a fee and when they do, a malicious file is downloaded and executed in the background.

Once installed, the malware searches for and interacts with banking apps to facilitate fraudulent transactions.

Infected users also have their keystrokes logged and screen captured in a push to capture banking credentials, usernames, and other sensitive data needed to crack and drain accounts.

“[The malware is] enabling attackers to perform banking fraud in over 60 countries including regions of Central and South America, Africa, Europe, and the Indo-Pacific." READ MORE

Little By Little, The Economy Has Declined To A Point Where Almost Everyone Is Struggling -The Economic Collapse

There have been numerous reports over the last few years detailing the severe toll today's economy has taken on American households and their standard of living. Who is this impacting? As the title of this article puts it, little by little ... everyone.

It happened so gradually that a lot of people didn’t even realize what was happening. The cost of living just kept rising faster than paychecks were, and little by little our standard of living just kept going down. Now we have reached a stage where the ultra-wealthy are thriving but almost everyone else is struggling. For most people, it is a real fight just to pay the bills from month to month. The majority of the population is deep in debt, and meanwhile the cost of just about everything is going up and up. Millions of Americans feel like they are drowning financially, and there is no easy way out. Sadly, many of them don’t even realize that the game was designed to get them on to a hamster wheel and keep them running for as long as possible.

When I was a kid, the United States had a very large and very prosperous middle class.

Life certainly wasn’t perfect in those days, but just about everyone that I knew could afford to live a comfortable middle class lifestyle.

Sadly, now everything has changed.

According to a survey that was just conducted by Seven Letter Insight, 65 percent of Americans “who earn more than 200% of the federal poverty level” admit that they are struggling financially…

In the large poll of 2,500 adults, 65% of people who earn more than 200% of the federal poverty level — that’s at least $60,000 for a family of four, often considered middle class — said they are struggling financially.

If 65 percent of those that “earn more than 200% of the federal poverty level” are struggling, what about those that earn less than that?

Needless to say, almost all of them are struggling. READ MORE

JPMorgan Chase To Launch Biometric Payments Next Year, Enabling ‘Pay With Your Face’ Shopping: Report - The Daily Hodl

Is this a good thing or a bad thing? 'Pay with your face' doesn't seem like much of a stretch in today's digital age, but is it a safe thing given the state of modern banking?

JPMorgan Chase is reportedly preparing to launch a biometric payments system for the masses.

The banking giant is preparing a “broad rollout” of an authentication system that will allow retail shoppers to pay with their face or palm next year, reports American Banker.

The system is the result of two pilot projects with the California-based biometrics company PopID.

JPMorgan, which already provides point-of-sale solutions to merchants, says it ran pilot tests for the system at brick-and-mortar stores in the US as well as internally at an office cafeteria.

Jean-Marc Thienpont, head of omnichannel and biometric solutions at JPMorgan Payments, says the bank believes the system will reduce checkout time and boost security.

“At its heart, biometrics-based payments empowers our merchant clients to deliver a better customer payment experience.

We are a trusted payments provider and financial institution worldwide, and fully equipped to manage the highly secure identification points that power biometrics solutions. The evolution of consumer technology has created new expectations for shoppers, and merchants need to be ready to adapt to these new expectations.”

A 2023 survey conducted by PYMNTS found 28% of consumers have used facial recognition for an online purchase in the last 30 days. READ MORE

RealMoneyBlog - Free daily/weekly email

6.4.24 - 97 Countries Prepare To Attend BRICS 2024

Gold last traded at $2,327 an ounce. Silver at $29.50 an ounce.

EDITOR'S NOTE: 97 countries are expected to attend the upcoming BRICS gathering; that's literally half the countries in the world. If there was a question as to whether or not BRICS is the real deal, I would say it most assuredly is.

97 Countries Prepare To Attend BRICS 2024 in June in Russia -Watcher.Guru

by Vinod Dsouza

A total of 97 countries have confirmed their presence in the BRICS 2024 Games in June this month. The event will be hosted by Russian President Vladimir Putin in the Kazan region between June 12 to 24.

“97 countries had already confirmed their participation,” said Russia’s Prime Minister Dmitry Chernyshenko. The minister added that the BRICS 2024 Games are an integral part of the development of the country. “The BRICS Games 2024, which were ordered to be organized following the decree of the Russian President Vladimir Putin, are an important part of our country’s chairmanship in this organization,” he said.

He added that all eyes will be on the BRICS Games in 2024. “The upcoming tournament must be organized at the highest possible level,” he said. The sporting event will host 20 different sports with 97 countries participating in Russia.

Apart from the 97 countries that are participating in the BRICS Games 2024, more than 40 nations are also looking to join the alliance. In 2024 alone, seven new countries have expressed their interest and submitted formal applications to enter the bloc. Read here to know the list of seven countries that have applied to join BRICS in 2024.

The 16th BRICS summit will also be held in Russia’s Kazan region in October this year. The alliance will decide on the prospects of the applications in the upcoming BRICS summit. All decisions will be taken on a consensus basis after weighing the pros and cons of a particular application. READ MORE

RealMoneyBlog - Free daily/weekly email

6.3.24 - Gold prices are 'dramatically outperforming'

Gold last traded at $2,325 an ounce. Silver at $30.31 an ounce.

EDITOR'S NOTE: Gold continues to capture the eye and the affection of the American investor as it continues to rally, setting new highs along the way. It's doing so even given some economic factors that would traditionally slow down such gains.

Gold prices are 'dramatically outperforming': Macquarie -investing.com

While the expectations for rate cuts have diminished lately amid persistently high inflation, gold prices have continued to exhibit strength due to various underlying positive factors, Macquarie commodity strategists said in a report.

The research firm observed that gold prices have reached new highs, driven by dynamics other than U.S. interest rates and the dollar. The yellow metal has benefited from a broader risk-on sentiment in the metals markets.

Gold prices have been outperforming across various asset classes and on a macroeconomic level. It is implicitly trading on its reputation as a safe asset with no counterparty risk, rather than the opportunity cost associated with holding a zero-yield asset.

Moreover, gold prices have been supported by risk assets. Macquarie highlighted that central bank buying of gold is still tracking above reported levels, suggesting sustained institutional interest in the precious metal.

The derivative markets for gold remain long, especially when measured in U.S. dollar notional amounts rather than in lots. However, the market positions are believed to be less overstretched following two recent price corrections.

Trading volumes on the Shanghai Futures Exchange (SHFE) have settled down after a significant increase in April, but the China "arbitrage" remains high, indicating continued interest and activity in the gold market from Chinese traders.

The resilience of gold prices, despite a stronger dollar supported by relative U.S. monetary policy divergence, indicates that investors are looking beyond just the U.S. rate market when it comes to gold. READ MORE

RealMoneyBlog - Free daily/weekly email

5.31.24 - Will Gov't Spending Trigger Major Economic Fallout?

Gold last traded at $2,325 an ounce. Silver at $30.31 an ounce.

EDITOR'S NOTE: There has been no shortage of financial minds forecasting severe market downturns ahead, time will tell if they are correct. The government's relentless spending might just be the match that lights the fire.

JPMorgan Chase CEO Warns ‘Extraordinary’ Government Spending Will Trigger Major Economic Fallout: Report -The Daily Hodl

JPMorgan Chase CEO Jamie Dimon just issued a major warning on where he believes the US economy is heading.

At AllianceBernstein’s Strategic Decisions conference, Dimon said he’s betting unchecked government spending will end in stagflation – the term for a dreaded combination of high inflation, high unemployment and low growth, reports Fortune.

“I look at the amount of fiscal and monetary stimulus that has taken place over the last five years. It has been so extraordinary. How can you tell me it won’t lead to stagflation?

It might not. But I, for one, am quite prepared for it.”

A week ago, at the banking giant’s Global Summit in Shanghai, Dimon told CNBC he also believes the Federal Reserve may not be done raising rates.

“I think inflation is stickier than people think. I think the odds are higher than other people think, mostly because the huge amount of fiscal monetary stimulus is still in the system, and still may be driving some of this liquidity…

I look at the range of outcomes and again, the worst outcome for all of us is what you call stagflation, higher rates, recession. That means corporate profits will go down and we’ll get through all of that.”

Dimon’s economic outlook echoes a warning from JPMorgan’s chief market strategist Marko Kolanovic a few months ago. READ MORE

RealMoneyBlog - Free daily/weekly email

5.30.24 - A Vow to Stop Biden Bucks?

Gold last traded at $2,348 an ounce. Silver at $31.97 an ounce.

EDITOR'S NOTE: Swiss America has been warning the public for decades about all of the ways the government wants to take control of your money and how you spend it. A CBDC would usher all of that in, overnight. Some are confident the government would never control or restrict how Americans spend their money; but their track record on the subject certainly doesn't provide much hope. Typically, governments use any power they are given. Maybe not at first, but eventually.

Trump Vows to Stop Biden Bucks -Daily Reckoning

by James Rickards

This past weekend, Donald Trump spoke at the Libertarian Party's national convention. The media are gloating that the crowd booed Trump at times.

But the fact that they gave Trump a cool reception shouldn't come as a surprise. Many libertarians (though not all) are for open borders. Trump wants a border wall. Libertarians doctrinally support unfettered free trade, while Trump believes in tariffs to protect American industries and workers.

But Trump was cheered when he addressed a topic I've been talking about for over two years — central bank digital currencies (CBDCs), or as I call them, Biden Bucks.

Trump pledged that he would block the implementation of CBDCs if elected:

To protect Americans from government tyranny, as your president, I will never allow the creation of a central bank digital currency.

He warned that CBDCs were a "dangerous threat to freedom" and that they would give the government "absolute control" over money.

Whatever you think of Trump personally, he's absolutely correct about CBDCs. I've extensively documented the threats they pose to your freedom and privacy. The federal government would be able to track every purchase you made and punish you if it didn't approve of how you spent your money.

CBDCs are direct liabilities of a central bank. That means they own the money — you don't. With that comes control. They basically give you permission to use that money, but permission can be subject to conditions. READ MORE

RealMoneyBlog - Free daily/weekly email

5.29.24 - Corporate Greed Is Not The Cause Of Inflation

Gold last traded at $2,337 an ounce. Silver at $31.97 an ounce.

Zero-Percent-Down Mortgages Return, What Can Go Wrong? -MishTalk

The lessons of 2008 may have already been forgotten. The CEO of United Wholesale Mortgage, Melinda Wilner, is offering up this new program as if it's magnanimous by saying, "Homeownership is something we’re very passionate about." I suspect she is more passionate about her bottom-line. What's not mentioned in their upbeat press appearances is the fine print on the silent second mortgage these buyers will hold; per the UWM website it, "has no minimum monthly payment requirements, a term of 360 months and is fully due as a balloon payment upon the occurrence of either a refinance of the [first mortgage], [or] payoff of the [first mortgage] or the final payment." Buyer beware.

by Mike Shedlock

It's a perfect time to do something really stupid, like offering zero percent down payments on mortgages.

Morningstar reports One of the Biggest U.S. Lenders is Offering 0%-Down-Payment Mortgages for First-Time Home Buyers.

Home buyers will be able to buy a home without putting any money down under a new program launched by United Wholesale Mortgage, one of the largest U.S. mortgage lenders.

The Pontiac, Mich.-based company's new program will be available to first-time home buyers and people earning at or below 80% of an area's median income, the company said in a press release.

UWM (UWMC) will give eligible buyers a second-lien loan of up to $15,000, in the form of down-payment assistance, for 3% of the home's purchase price. The loan will not accrue interest or require a monthly payment.

"Homeownership is something we're very passionate about," Melinda Wilner, chief operating officer at UWM, told MarketWatch.READ MORE

No, Corporate Greed Is Not The Cause Of Inflation-ZeroHedge

It's much easier for our government to point the finger of blame and anger the citizens than to take responsibility for poor policy decisions. The Fed's misguided attempts to right the ship have done nothing but make it sink faster. Blaming corporate greed for this is convenient, especially when most people will believe the lie.

Authored by Lance Roberts via RealInvestmentAdvice.com

Corporate greed is not causing inflation, despite the claims of many on the political left who failed to understand the very basics of economic supply and demand.

"If you take a look at what people have, they have the money to spend. It angers them and angers me that you have to spend more. It's like 20% less for the same price. That's corporate greed. That's corporate greed. And we have got to deal with it. And that's what I'm working on." – President Biden via CNN

Yes, prices have certainly gone up due to inflation. However, that wasn't the fault of corporations. The surge in inflation directly resulted from the supply-to-demand imbalance caused by shutting down the economy (supply) and increasing household purchasing power by sending them checks (demand).

For the majority of Americans who now get their "news" from social media, the uneducated masses now have a new target of hatred for their financial woes – corporate greed.

The problem, as with many of the narratives ramping up the ire of Americans on social media, is it is patently false.

As Michael Maharrey previously penned:

"One simply has to reason through the claim to uncover the absurdity. If corporations can willy-nilly raise prices and enjoy 'excessive' profits, why don’t they do it all the time? Did corporations suddenly get greedy in 2021? And why did the Federal Reserve spend a decade fretting about inflation being 'too low' as it struggled to hit its 2% target? Was there not enough corporate greed before coronavirus?"

When you think about it this way, something else apparently happened.

Let’s begin with Powell’s assessment of the cause of inflation. READ MORE

One Misfortune Away From Insolvency -Daily Reckoning

Precarity - this word so perfectly sums up where we find ourselves today. Many families are stretched to their breaking point financially, add to that the looming stressor of job loss and/or an emergency they cannot afford and you have a recipe for desperation.

by Charles Hugh Smith

We can summarize the changes in our economy over the past two generations with one word: precarity, as life for the bottom 90% of American households has become far more precarious over the past 40 years, despite the rising GDP and "wealth" as measured in phantom capital.

This reality is expressed in the portmanteau word precariat, combining proletariat (someone whose livelihood comes from their labor) and precarious: Outside of government employment, work has become far more precarious.

Where it was still common 40 years ago to work for a company for much or most of one's career and have a private-sector pension, now private-sector pensions have vanished, replaced by self-managed 401(k) funds, and private-sector work is characterized by a series of not just job changes but career changes.

The source of one's livelihood can dry up and blow away almost overnight, and to fill the hole many turn to gig work with zero benefits that saddles the worker with self-employment taxes (15.3% of all earnings, as the "self-employed" gig worker must pay both the employee and the employer shares of Social Security-Medicare payroll taxes).

This isn't true self-employment, of course, as true self-employment means the owner-worker can hope to extract the full value of their labor; in contrast, much of the value of the gig work is skimmed off by corporate platforms (Uber et al.). The gig worker is a precariat wage-slave, not a self-employed owner of their own labor and enterprise. READ MORE

RealMoneyBlog - Free daily/weekly email

5.28.24 - Gold Price Prediction: $4,821

Gold last traded at $2,360 an ounce. Silver at $32.08 an ounce.

EDITOR'S NOTE: This recent gold projection is calling for the yellow metal to reach prices of nearly $5,000 an ounce. More and more forecasters are revising their gold price predictions upward. Here's a deeper dive as to why.

Gold Analyst Stoeferle Confirms His Long Term Gold Price Target Of $4,821-Investing Haven

In the latest edition of his study, released on May 17th, 2024, Stoeferle re-iterates his method and data used to derive his gold price target of $4,821 for 2030.

Ronald Stoeferle is the lead analyst of the respected In Gold We Trust, the most comprehensive and detailed gold market study available on the market.

He sticks to his gold price forecast of USD $4,821 by the end of 2030, which he initially introduced in 2020.

Achieving this price target requires an annualized return of just under 12%. By way of comparison, the return in the 2000s was over 14% p.a., compared with around 27% p.a. in the 1970s.

He continues:

Loyal readers will remember our gold price forecast model that we published in the In Gold We Trust report 2020. At that time, we calculated a price target of just above USD 4,800 by the end of 2030, using the gold coverage ratio as a key input factor.

This is the chart that appeared on page 410 of In Gold We Trust 2024: VIEW FULL CHART AND READ MORE

RealMoneyBlog - Free daily/weekly email

5.24.24 - House Passes CBDC Ban

Gold last traded at $2,334 an ounce. Silver at $30.28 an ounce.

EDITOR'S NOTE: Stop the presses! A CBDC now facing a major roadblock as the House votes to stop banks from implementing one. The question however; is this move too little, too late? The notion of banks using digital currencies has been growing with little to no resistance until now, even though the Fed has assured us they had no intention to delve into the digital currency world. Only time will tell.

US House Passes Bill Banning Federal Reserve From Launching Central Bank Digital Currency -Daily Hodl

The US House of Representatives just passed a bill aimed at preventing the Federal Reserve from launching a Central Bank Digital Currency (CBDC) without Congressional authorization.

Republican Majority Whip Tom Emmer sponsored H.R. 5403, known as the CBDC Anti-Surveillance State Act, with the stated goal of protecting Americans' right to privacy.

"My legislation ensures that the United States' digital currency policy remains in the hands of the American people so that any development of digital money reflects our values of privacy, individual sovereignty, and free market competitiveness.

This is what the future global digital economy needs. We are proud to have led this effort and thank my colleagues for their support."

The bill passed 216 to 192 along party lines, backed by 213 Republicans.

House Democrat Maxine Waters led the charge against the bill, calling it anti-innovative and stating it would hinder the Federal Reserve’s research and authority.

"[H.R. 5403] would stifle that research and prevent us from moving forward even if it means that the dollar loses its status as the world’s reserve currency and even if it means that U.S. citizens lose out on faster, cheaper and simpler payments." READ MORE

RealMoneyBlog - Free daily/weekly email

5.23.24 - Incoming Commercial Real Estate Crisis

Gold last traded at $2,331 an ounce. Silver at $30.15 an ounce.

EDITOR'S NOTE: It's no secret that regional banks are already on shaky ground; but it appears nothing is being done to shore them up for the next wave of collapses that will be brought on by distressed commercial real estate loans. The powers that be seem to hope they can kick the can down the road long enough that rates will come down and inflation will ease, but what if they are wrong? And what if this house of cards caves in before we ever get to the other side?

The Incoming Commercial Real Estate Crisis No One Seems Prepared For -Zero Hedge

Authored by Kevin Stocklin via The Epoch Times

It has been a year since a string of U.S. regional bank failures, together with the collapse of global heavyweight Credit Suisse, caused many to fear that a major financial crisis was imminent.

But, by the summer of 2023, the panicked withdrawals by frightened depositors largely subsided.

In February, however, New York Community Bank (NYCB) appeared to resurrect the crisis when it announced $2.4 billion in losses, fired its CEO, and faced credit downgrades from rating agencies Fitch and Moodys.

In what has become a familiar tale for U.S. regional banks, NYCB’s share price plummeted by 60 percent virtually overnight, erasing billions of dollars from its market value, and its depositors fled en masse.

“I think that there’s more to come,” Peter Earle, a securities analyst and senior research fellow at the American Institute for Economic Research, told The Epoch Times.

Underlying this year’s turbulence is the fact that many regional banks are sitting on large portfolios of distressed commercial real estate (CRE) loans. according to Mr. Earle. And many are attempting to cope through a process called “extend and pretend,” in which they grant insolvent borrowers more time to pay in hopes that things will get better.

“There is trouble out there, and most of it probably won’t be realized because of the ability to roll some of these loans forward and buy a few more years, and maybe things will recover by then,” he said.

“But all it does is it kicks the can down the road, and it basically means a more fragile financial system in the medium term.” READ MORE

RealMoneyBlog - Free daily/weekly email

5.22.24 - The 'Old Money' Secret to Wealth

Gold last traded at $2,380 an ounce. Silver at $30.86 an ounce.

‘Perfect storm’ steers gold to another record high; silver jumps -CNBC

Central banks, countries and investors alike continue to turn to gold. The problems facing the US economy are not short term and the global economy can see the writing on the wall.

(Reuters)

Spot gold rose 0.9% to $2,435.96 per ounce after hitting a record high of $2,449.89 earlier in the session.

U.S. gold futures settled 0.9% higher to $2,438.50.

“Inflation is sticky, we may see some whipsaws in the inflation data, but also the burdening debt in the U.S., there is a cause to be diversified away from that too. So it’s this perfect storm that’s kept the market elevated in gold,” said Daniel Pavilonis, senior market strategist at RJO Futures.

Data last week showed that U.S. consumer prices increased less than expected in April, suggesting that inflation resumed its downward trend, boosting expectations for a September interest rate cut.

Lower rates reduce the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding bullion, which also benefits from uncertainty in the market.

RJO’s Pavilonis expects gold to propel to near $2,500 in the short term as there’s a fear of missing out from gold’s rally. “There’s a lot of non-traders that are calling up places(brokers) ... to buy futures or to take physical delivery.”

Gold has also been supported by increased increased holdings in China’s central bank. READ MORE

The “Old Money” Secret to Wealth -Daily Reckoning

How does "old money" wealth get passed down through the generations without being wiped out? They have followed the investment secret bestowed by those who came before them: “a third, a third and a third”. One third in land, one third in art, one third in gold. The moral of this story is really just to be diversified but that includes being diversified in assets that last.

by James Rickards

I believe that we’re heading for another liquidity crisis or financial crisis. That doesn’t mean it’ll happen tomorrow, but there are disturbing signs that it might not be too far off.

It doesn’t mean the world’s going to end. But investors who aren’t prepared could see large portions of their portfolios wiped out. It could take years to rebuild them, and many investors just don’t have the time to recoup those losses.

But how do you prepare? You might want to start by looking at how “old money” preserves its wealth. Today I want to explore that.

On a cool evening in the fall of 2012, I joined a private dinner in Rome with a small group of the world’s wealthiest investors.

We dined at Palazzo Colonna, a private palace that’s been owned by one family for 31 generations or 900 years. My dinner companions were mainly Europeans, some Asians and relatively few from the United States.

Amid marble, gold, paintings and palatial architecture, I mused on the meaning of old money compared with the new money crowd that congregated for cocktails near the Connecticut home in which I lived at the time. READ MORE

Americans are going into debt to buy groceries. Here’s why those balances can be difficult to pay down -CNBC

This headline should be shocking but it's sadly just the heartbreaking norm. The mess the Fed has made is not without victims. Americans are going into debt to feed their families, and that debt is even harder to pay off as the value of their dollar declines every day.

by Lorie Konish

Many shoppers have been shocked by what they pay at the grocery store checkout.

Food prices shot up amid broader inflation in recent years, and remain high for many staples.

As consumers struggle with elevated food costs that can lead to unpaid debt balances.

Many families dipped into their savings or turned to credit cards, buy now, pay later installment programs or payday loans to pay for groceries in 2023, according to new research from the Urban Institute.

While those payment methods can be a lifeline, they may also lead to financial instability.

“The rate of price increases is slowing, but households are still paying more today for groceries than they did last year,” said Kassandra Martinchek, senior research associate at the Urban Institute.

“That might mean that folks are having to rely on liquidity sources other than their income to be able to meet their very basic needs, their food needs,” she said.

It’s not just those who are most financially disadvantaged who are experiencing these challenges, according to Martinchek. READ MORE

RealMoneyBlog - Free daily/weekly email

5.21.24 - Metals Rally Continues

Gold last traded at $2,421 an ounce. Silver at $31.97 an ounce.

EDITOR'S NOTE: Metals prices continue to climb at an impressive rate, with gold reaching yet another record high. The fundamentals driving demand look to be strong over the next 12 months so get in while you can. Give us a call today to secure your position.

Gold, copper hit records, silver nears 12-year high as metals rally continues -Yahoo! Finance

by Ines Ferré

Gold touched a record high on Monday and silver prices neared 12-year highs as this year's rally in the metals market continues.

Gold futures traded hands just above $2,450 per ounce during early morning trading, breaking previous nominal highs reached in April before paring gains. Silver also surged to hover just above $32 per ounce Monday, its highest price since late 2012.

Gold has rallied in recent months on expectations of a Fed rate cut this year, coupled with strong demand stemming from central banks and Asian buyers. And silver has outperformed gold in recent weeks, gaining 35% this year against gold's 18% rise.

Copper prices also hit new highs Monday, and analysts suspect a short squeeze has sent prices for the commodity soaring in recent days. However, strong demand fundamentals are expected to continue over the next year, said Michael Widmer, global head of metals research at Bank of America.

"Overall, I think the structural bull case for the coper market remains in place," Widmer told Yahoo Finance on Monday. "This is firmly a buy the dip market." READ MORE

RealMoneyBlog - Free daily/weekly email

5.20.24 - Paulson and Burry: Betting on Gold

Gold last traded at $2,427 an ounce. Silver at $31.86 an ounce.

EDITOR'S NOTE: Two well-known investors are taking advantage of what they believe to be a strong investment play in the accelerating gold market. These gentlemen are well known for their prediction of the 2008 housing crash and now see the stars aligning for a continued rise in gold prices.

Michael Burry and John Paulson hit the jackpot when they called the housing crash. Now they're betting on gold. -Yahoo! Finance

by Theron Mohamed

It turns out Michael Burry isn't only a metalhead when it comes to music.

The investor of "The Big Short" fame purchased about 441,000 units of the Sprott Physical Gold Trust last quarter. The trust holds virtually all of its assets in physical gold bullion.

Burry's Scion Asset Management revealed its first-quarter holdings in a regulatory filing this week. The gold bet was worth $7.6 million at the end of March, ranking it as Scion's fifth-largest position with a 7.4% weighting in the firm's $103 million US stock portfolio.

If the wager remains intact, it was valued at $8.1 million as of Friday, per Sprott's bullion calculator.

Buying gold is a surprising move from Burry, a value investor known for sniffing out dirt-cheap stocks — including GameStop years before it became a meme stock.

He's also bet against high flyers like Elon Musk's Tesla, Cathie Wood's Ark Innovation ETF , and a microchip ETF that counts Nvidia as its top holding.

Burry shot to fame for predicting and profiting from the collapse of the mid-2000s housing bubble. The saga was chronicled in the book and movie "The Big Short."

John Paulson made his name with a similar wager, immortalized in a book titled "The Greatest Trade Ever." Like Burry, the Paulson & Co. chief appears to be bullish on gold and other precious metals. READ MORE

RealMoneyBlog - Free daily/weekly email

5.17.24 - Silver Outlook to Q1 2025

Gold last traded at $2,411 an ounce. Silver at $30.94 an ounce.

EDITOR'S NOTE: The stars are beginning to align for the silver market, explosive gains are on the horizon. Central bank and private investment - as well as industrial desire for the white metal - have been quickly expanding interest and ballooning demand.

Silver Outlook to Q1 2025: The hybrid metal is staging a catch-up -wisdomtree.eu

Silver is finally staging its catch-up to gold after underperforming the yellow metal for most of the past year. Silver's year-to-date gains – at 17.6% as of 11 April 2024 – outshines gold’s 13.4%. Most of this catch-up took place in the first week of April.

While many analysts have marvelled at gold’s recent rise to a new all-time high, silver’s gains seemed to have been a long time coming. The metal has been in a supply deficit for three years running and is likely to head into a fourth year of undersupply in 2024. Industrial demand for the metal is rising strongly with increasing demand for photovoltaics, vehicle electrification, 5G technology, and artificial intelligence (AI) applications.

When including investment demand but excluding exchange-traded products (ETPs), silver has notched three years of back-to-back supply deficits, with a 253-million-ounce record-high deficit in 2022 and the second-highest deficit in 2023 of 211 million ounces. When excluding net physical investment (arguably the better way to look at silver balances as silver in investment isn’t ‘consumed’ but stored and is very mobile), silver was in surplus in 2023. Still, it was the smallest surplus on record. We believe that silver will enter another year of deficit in 2024 of a similar magnitude to 2023, when including investment demand. The balance excluding investment is likely to be at its lowest on record.READ MORE

RealMoneyBlog - Free daily/weekly email

5.16.24 - Inflation remains stubbornly high

Gold last traded at $2,378 an ounce. Silver at $29.67 an ounce.

EDITOR'S NOTE: Inflation and its higher costs have become the new norm. Despite the assurances given by the Biden administration of approaching relief, the harsh reality of how much more everything costs is undeniable.

How it started... How it's going: Home, energy, car bills way up thanks to inflation -Fox Business

By Chris Pandolfo

Home, energy, car and childcare costs have all increased since President Biden took office and there is no end in sight as inflation remains stubbornly high.

The latest consumer price index (CPI) report showed inflation eased slightly in April, rising only 0.3% when economists had expected a 0.4% increase. President Biden welcomed news that core inflation "fell to its lowest level in three years," but acknowledged "we have a lot more to do."

"Prices are still too high — so my agenda will give families breathing room by building two million new homes to lower housing costs, taking on Big Pharma to lower prescription drug prices, and calling on grocery chains making record profits to lower grocery prices for consumers," Biden said in a statement.

He also criticized Republicans, claiming that GOP-supported tax cuts and spending reductions for Social Security and Medicare "would send inflation skyrocketing" — although Republicans have put forward no serious proposal to limit entitlement spending.

CPI is a broad measure of how much everyday goods like gasoline, groceries and rent cost. Contained in the Labor Department's report are figures for so-called core prices, which exclude the more volatile measurements of gasoline and food in order to better assess price growth trends. Biden celebrated that core prices only rose 0.3% in April and 3.6% from the same time last year — the lowest reading since 2021.

However, price increases at slower rates are still price increases, and Americans face far higher costs today than when Biden assumed office in January 2021. READ MORE

RealMoneyBlog - Free daily/weekly email

5.15.24- Is $27,000 gold a real possibility?

Gold last traded at $2,389 an ounce. Silver at $29.74 an ounce.

BRICS: Billionaire Makes Major US Bank Failure Prediction -Watcher.Guru

Banks have been under strain for some time now. Account closures, deposit seizures, bank failures ... the list goes on. Another billionaire is weighing in on the discussion and urging preparation for what could be a wave of failures.

by Joshua Ramos

With the BRICS bloc embracing de-dollarization and encouraging a global economic shift, one notable billionaire has made a major US bank failure prediction. Indeed, real estate investment mogul and CEO of $115 billion Starwood Capital, Barry Sternlicht, has urged preparation for widespread failures in the coming year.

Speaking to CNBC, Sternlicht predicted that the United States would witness one bank failure every week. Specifically, he stated that the more than 4,000 regional and community banks in the country would be at risk due to high interest rates and inflation. All the while, the US debt crisis is nearing, with the greenback facing lessening prevalence internationally.

Over the last several years, the increasing relevance of the BRICS alliance has been a massive geopolitical development. It has seen the global south get a renewed voice amid the collective’s pursuit of a multipolar world. However, their initiatives have greatly affected the West, with the US dollar being abandoned through BRICS trade activity throughout the year.

However, that BRICS action isn’t all that should be concerning, as a billionaire has made a major US bank failure prediction. Additionally, the aforementioned Barry Sternlicht has forecasted a host of bank failures to take place in the coming year.

“I think people are looking for these cracks, and you’re going to see the cracks develop now. You’re going to see a regional bank fail every day, or not—every week, maybe two a week,” Sternlicht said in an interview. READ MORE

$27,000 Gold -Daily Reckoning

There have been several predictions as to where gold may be heading. Most of the bulls have been echoing price points from $2,500 to as much as $3,000 by year's end. Not hard to believe given the challenges we're facing in today's economy. This prediction is truly next level, read more to see why Mr. Rickards think it's possible.

by James Rickards

I’ve previously said that gold could reach $15,000 by 2026. Today, I’m updating that forecast.

My latest forecast is that gold may actually exceed $27,000.

I don’t say that to get attention or to shock people. It’s not a guess; it’s the result of rigorous analysis.

Of course, there’s no guarantee it’ll happen. But this forecast is based on the best available tools and models that have proved accurate in many other contexts.

Here’s how I reached that price level forecast…

This analysis begins with a simple question: What’s the implied non-deflationary price of gold under a new gold standard?

No central banker in the world wants a gold standard. Why would they? Right now, they control the machinery of global currencies (also called fiat money).

They have no interest in a form of money they can’t control. It took about 60 years from 1914–1974 to drive gold out of the monetary system. No central banker wants to let it back in.

Still, what if they have no choice? What if confidence in command currencies collapses due to some combination of excessive money creation, competition from Bitcoin, extreme levels of dollar debt, a new financial crisis, war or natural disaster? READ MORE

The US dollar has become so weaponized that central banks are snapping up politically-neutral gold -Business Insider

If you've been considering whether or not you should be buying gold, the answer is most likely yes. Central banks are turning to gold as they consider the dollar to now be "weaponized". Don't let that weapon be used against you; instead, defend yourself against it - which is precisely what gold can do.

by Huileng Tan

Gold prices are on a tear recently thanks to strong buying by central banks — a signal that the precious metal is increasingly seen as a geopolitical hedge.

Last week, a top International Monetary Fund official pointed to gold's role in a potential fragmentation of the global economic and financial order.

"After years of shocks — including the COVID-19 pandemic and Russia's invasion of Ukraine — countries are reevaluating their trading partners based on economic and national security concerns," said Gita Gopinath, an IMF deputy managing director

In particular, some countries are rethinking their heavy reliance on the US dollar in their international transactions and foreign reserve holdings, she said.

Gold prices are on a tear recently thanks to strong buying by central banks — a signal that the precious metal is increasingly seen as a geopolitical hedge.

Last week, a top International Monetary Fund official pointed to gold's role in a potential fragmentation of the global economic and financial order.

"After years of shocks — including the COVID-19 pandemic and Russia's invasion of Ukraine — countries are reevaluating their trading partners based on economic and national security concerns," said Gita Gopinath, an IMF deputy managing director

In particular, some countries are rethinking their heavy reliance on the US dollar in their international transactions and foreign reserve holdings, she said. READ MORE

RealMoneyBlog - Free daily/weekly email

5.14.24 - BRICS Done with the Dollar

Gold last traded at $2,356 an ounce. Silver at $28.60 an ounce.

EDITOR'S NOTE: If there was still a question as to whether or not the de-dollarization movement had legs, several billions in non-dollar transactions answers it once and for all. This once-thought-to-be Putin-driven temper tantrum is gaining traction, and credibility, amongst a growing number of nations by the day.

BRICS Ditches US Dollar, Settles $4 Billion Trade in Local Currencies -Watcher.Guru

by Vinod Dsouza

BRICS members India and Russia ditched the US dollar and settled payments worth $4 billion in local currencies. Russian exporters purchased Indian-made arms and equipment for defense purposes and cleared the payment using the rupee. The US dollar played no role in the cross-border trade making local currencies the sole beneficiary of the transactions.

The BRICS alliance kick-started the de-dollarization agenda and is moving in the direction of using local currencies for cross-border transactions. Read here to know how many sectors in the US will be impacted if BRICS ditches the dollar for trade.

The Russian exporters held $8 billion in reserves in India’s special Vostro bank account for global exchange of trade settlement. Now, 50% of the funds have been used to settle arms payments in the rupee with India. Another $4 billion is parked in the account and a new trade settlement could be initiated in the coming months. The development gives the local currencies of BRICS a boost in the global market and not the US dollar.

On the other hand, India is also settling local currencies for its BRICS counterpart Russia through the special Vostro accounts. “Indian exports are also being settled from the Russian funds from the Vostro account,” said an official on the condition of anonymity.

Russia and India’s intent of using local currencies for trade falls in line with the BRICS de-dollarization initiative. The goal is to move away from the US dollar and make local currencies the beneficiary of all transactions. This would strengthen local currencies and give a boost to their native economies making businesses thrive and creating more jobs.

We will have to wait and watch how both the BRICS countries plan to settle another $4 billion from the Vostro account. The US dollar is the only currency that receives a hit as developing countries settle trade in local currencies. READ MORE

RealMoneyBlog - Free daily/weekly email

5.13.24 - Nebraska Ends Income Taxes On Gold

Gold last traded at $2,338 an ounce. Silver at $28.26 an ounce.

EDITOR'S NOTE: The world of money has been changing more quickly than Superman in a telephone booth. Gold and silver are finally being viewed once again as real money; as our founding fathers intended. State governments are also calling into question the legitimacy of digital money, as they should. Now more than ever, diversification is a sound financial strategy.

Nebraska Ends Income Taxes On Gold And Silver, Declares CBDC’s Are Not Lawful Money

by Jp Cortez

With Gov. Jim Pillen’s recent signature, Nebraska has become the 12th state to end capital gains taxes on sales of gold and silver.

LB 1317 is the fourth major sound money bill to become law this year, as state lawmakers across the nation scramble to protect the public from the ravages of inflation and runaway federal debt.

Under the new Nebraska law, any “gains” or “losses” on precious metal sales reported on federal income tax returns are backed out, thereby removing them from the calculation of a Nebraska taxpayer’s adjusted gross income (AGI).

Supported by the Sound Money Defense League, Money Metals Exchange, and in-state advocates, Nebraska’s sound money measure passed out of the unicameral legislature’s Revenue committee unanimously before being amended into a larger bill.

Sponsor Sen. Ben Hansen said upon news of the formal enactment of his legislation:

"Gold and silver are the only forms of currency mentioned in our Constitution and with that comes the people’s ability to use it as such without penalty from the government. Saving, and using, gold and silver is our right and one of the only checks and balances to our federal government’s unending devaluation of our paper currency." READ MORE

RealMoneyBlog - Free daily/weekly email

5.10.24 - A $700 Billion Black Hole?

Gold last traded at $2,360 an ounce. Silver at $28.18 an ounce.

EDITOR'S NOTE: Wall Street is touting a robust and healthy economy; given their vantage point, that argument can be made. If looked at from another perspective - one that takes in the entire picture - the outlook is far more grim. Buy Now, Pay Later (BNPL) may be a godsend for cash-strapped consumers who need to purchase essential goods, but it's a symptom of a much larger problem - a problem being overlooked by economists since this debt isn't reported to credit agencies. Add to this that the US savings rate went down again this month to 3.2%. Americans are no longer planning for the future, either by choice or by force. What will this mean for the overall economy and for the long term stability of our currency?

‘Phantom debt’ from ‘buy now, pay later’ schemes is a $700 billion black hole that economists aren’t accounting for -Fortune

by Eleanor Pringle

Wall Street is generally convinced the economic health of the U.S. consumer is remarkably better than expected after COVID, but one analyst has pointed out there's a gaping hole in the picture.

He calls it "phantom debt"—spending on "buy now, pay later" (BNPL) platforms, which often goes unrecorded by credit agencies.

Big bank CEOs have continually expressed their shock and delight at how well consumers are apparently faring.

JP Morgan Chase CEO Jamie Dimon recently said the consumer is in "pretty good shape" while the economy is "booming."

Meanwhile, Bank of America CEO Brian Moynihan has encouraged Jerome Powell to be "mindful" of relying too heavily on consumers to prop up the economy, as they will eventually reach their breaking point.

While Citi CEO Jane Fraser has pointed out the "cracks" beginning to appear at the bottom end of the income ladder, a Wells Fargo analyst has also flagged a personal finance feature that is largely overlooked by the sector: people purchasing products—contributing to stronger sales for brands—but without paying the full balance at the time of sale.

Instead, payment for these products is taken in installments over a longer period of time—some of which come with service fees or with fluctuating repayment options depending on an individual's perceived credit reliability.

The problem with this, for economists at least, is that the larger BNPL platforms often decline to share their customers' purchasing patterns with some or all credit bureaus, concerned that their customers' activity may ultimately bring down their credit score. Afterpay, for example, shares none of its data with credit agencies, while Klarna shares its data with U.K. credit bodies.

BNPL lenders may also report some but not all of their data. For example, in the U.K., BNPL providers are required to share a customer's credit and repayment history for products with a short repayment window or multiple smaller payments across various accounts.

This black hole of information between BNPL lenders and credit agencies across the world is why Wells Fargo senior economist Tim Quinlan has coined the term "phantom debt," per Bloomberg, saying experts have been “lulled into complacency about where consumers are" as a result.

“People need to be more awake to the risk of BNPL,” Quinlan added. READ MORE

RealMoneyBlog - Free daily/weekly email

5.9.24 - Are weekly bank closures a possibility?

Gold last traded at $2,345 an ounce. Silver at $28.32 an ounce.

EDITOR'S NOTE: While the Fed may act like bank failures were a 2023 problem that is behind us, Billionaire Barry Sternlicht sees a different future and he has been warning about it for quite some time. All banks will continue to struggle with rising loan losses, small and regional banks will be hard pressed to absorb them.

Billionaire Barry Sternlicht predicts weekly bank closures as the real estate sector battles high interest rates and inflation - Business Insider

by Erin Snodgrass

Billionaire Barry Sternlicht offered an ominous prediction about America's regional banks amid a coming commercial real estate reckoning.

The Starwood Capital Group CEO told CNBC on Tuesday that he thinks real estate's primary lenders — regional and community banks — could soon be bearing the brunt of high interest rates and inflation.

"You're going to see a regional bank fail every day, or not — every week, maybe two a week," Sternlicht said.

There are more than 4,000 regional and community banks throughout the US, many of which may not have the cash flow to handle major loan losses on real estate debt.

Problems have been pummeling the entirety of the real estate sector, but commercial real estate, in particular, has been struggling due to the rise of remote and hybrid work, leading to more and more vacancies.

Sternlicht has been ringing the warning bells for more than two years, calling the situation an "existential crisis" in a January Bloomberg interview. Earlier this year, he predicted $1 trillion of losses on office properties alone. In the Tuesday interview, Sternlicht said Fed Chair Jerome Powell's ongoing rate hikes will continue to have consequences in the real estate sector for the foreseeable future.

"He's got a hard task with a blunt tool, and the consequence is the real estate markets are taking it on the chin because rates rose so fast. We could have handled this, but we couldn't handle it this fast," Sternlicht said. "The 1.9 trillion of real estate loans, that's a fragile animal right now." READ MORE

RealMoneyBlog - Free daily/weekly email

5.7.24 - One Final Rally?

Gold last traded at $2,313 an ounce. Silver at $27.26 an ounce.

EDITOR'S NOTE: Another economist is sounding the alarm on a monumental US market crash. Adding to this pressure, the BRICS nations are rapidly de-dollarizing and buying up gold as fast as they can to protect themselves from a potential US market crash. That strategy may prove beneficial for the BRICS but devastating for the US economy.

BRICS: Economist Predicts One Final Rally Before the Markets Crash 50% -watcher.guru

by Vinod Dsouza

Speculations of a recession have been looming large since 2022 as economists have been repeatedly warning about an upcoming market crash. According to economists, the crash could be more severe than the 2008 economic crisis and replicate the worst recession since 1929. If the market crashes, BRICS will benefit as the US economy will suffer the consequences of their own making. The uncontrolled debt of $34.4 trillion is spiraling leading to other developing countries ditching the US dollar for global trade.

On the heels of the BRICS alliance looking to dominate the world’s financial sector, a macroeconomist shared his views that the US markets could rally one last time before tanking 50% or more. This time around, not all countries will be affected if the US economy crashes as developing countries are increasingly accumulating gold in their reserves. BRICS countries have been the largest buyers of gold since 2022 and are safeguarding their economies from a potential US market crash.

US macroeconomist Henrik Zeberg warned that the American markets could replicate the Great Depression of 1929 in 2024. He listed the observations pointed out by the Game of Trades, which shows similar chart patterns that led to previous market crashes. The BRICS alliance is hoping for the US market to crash to further strengthen its de-dollarization agenda. READ MORE

RealMoneyBlog - Free daily/weekly email

5.6.24 - Fed Doesn’t Know Which Way To Go

Gold last traded at $2,325 an ounce. Silver at $27.44 an ounce.

EDITOR'S NOTE: There has been a lot of discussion recently about the US stock market heading for a correction; some are going as far to say we may be facing a total crash. Our fractured economy would suggest either is a possibility. This analyst believes we may looking at a crash worse than that of 1929.

Our Deer In The Headlights Moment: The “Worst Market Crash Since 1929” Is Rapidly Approaching And The Fed Doesn’t Know Which Way To Go -The Economic Collapse

The Federal Reserve is stuck between a rock and a hard place. If the Fed pushes rates higher, interest payments on our 34 trillion dollar national debt could spin wildly out of control and bank balance sheets will be in even worse condition than they are now. First Republic just bit the dust, and literally thousands of other small and mid-size banks and in serious jeopardy. So it would be suicidal to hike rates at this point. But if the Fed were to reduce rates, that would be like injecting jet fuel into a raging fire. Our ongoing inflation crisis is absolutely crushing working families, and the rising cost of living has risen to the top of the list of things that U.S. voters are concerned about. The Fed seems very hesitant to cut rates, because that would make inflation even worse. So at this point the Fed is essentially caught in a “deer in the headlights” moment because it doesn’t know which way to go.

But staying on the path that we are currently on is only going to end in disaster.

Mark Spitznagel, the chief investment officer of Universa Investments, recently warned that he believes that the “worst market crash since 1929” is ahead of us…

One of Wall Street’s most bearish skeptics told Business Insider last month that he thinks the “worst market crash since 1929” is coming.

For years, our leaders have been “kicking the can down the road”, but according to Spitznagel all of that intervention has set the stage for an absolutely epic collapse…

In an interview with New York Magazine’s Intelligencer last year, Spitznagel likened the Fed’s “constant monetary intervention” to forest fire suppression.

He went on to say “when you suppress it enough, it gets to a point where you can no longer afford to have any fires burn because they would be too big and too intense.” READ MORE

RealMoneyBlog - Free daily/weekly email

5.3.24 - April Payrolls Unexpectedly Plunge

Gold last traded at $2,306 an ounce. Silver at $26.38 an ounce.

EDITOR'S NOTE: Despite the repeated efforts of our government to convince us we are living in a healthy job market, the numbers continue to tell a completely different story. The job market is just another casualty of our new economy. This leaves many people wondering how much longer the ship of our economy can take on water before it finally sinks?

April Payrolls Unexpectedly Plunge, Biggest Miss Since 2021 As Unemployment Rate Rises -ZeroHedge

by Tyler Durden

Ahead of today's payrolls report, in our preview we said that while we knew we would get a slowdown, the question was how big it would be (and before that we also asked if Yellen had leaked the weaker number to Japan ahead of their multiple interventions this week to prevent them from wasting tens of billions in intervention dry capital for nothing).

We got the answer moments ago when the BLS reported that in April the US added just 175K jobs, a nearly 50% drop from the upward revised 315K (was 303K), the lowest print since October 2023...

... and a two-sigma miss to estimates of 240K.

In fact, as shown below, this was the biggest miss since Dec 2021.

As usual, prior data was net revised lower, with the change in total nonfarm payroll employment for February revised down by 34,000, from +270,000 to +236,000, and the change for March was revised up by 12,000, from +303,000 to +315,000. With these revisions, employment in February and March combined is 22,000 lower than previously reported.

What was behind the unexpected payrolls plunge? Blame government, which added just 8,000 jobs in April the least since Dec 2021, almost as if the government itself was goalseeking the final result. VIEW CHARTS AND READ MORE

RealMoneyBlog - Free daily/weekly email

5.2.24 - An Absolutely Enormous Economic Shift

Gold last traded at $2,322 an ounce. Silver at $26.72 an ounce.

EDITOR'S NOTE: If you have found yourself looking at the world around you and wondering what is going on, you're not alone. In some ways it seems as though the world has been flipped over on its financial head. This article takes a closer look as to why we are feeling the way we are feeling.

An Absolutely Enormous Economic Shift Of Historic Proportions Is Now Taking Place Right In Front Of Our Eyes -The Economic Collapse

Can you feel it too? Over the past few weeks, I have heard from so many readers that are deeply troubled about economic conditions where they live. In some cases, sales are way down. In other cases, it seems almost impossible to find a decent job. It is almost as if a tremendous chill descended upon the U.S. economy as the second quarter of 2024 began. Yes, economic conditions have certainly not been good for a few years, but it appears that an absolutely enormous economic shift of historic proportions is now taking place right in front of our eyes. Other than the early stages of the pandemic, we haven’t seen anything like this since 2008 and 2009.

Let me give you an example that will illustrate what I am talking about. A reader that lives near Seattle recently wrote me about the horrible downturn that she is witnessing in the tech industry, and she said that I could share this information with all of you…

I live in the tech corridor outside of Seattle and practically no one can find a job in tech. Apparently the costs of AI processors and servers are so expensive that large tech companies are laying off workers to accommodate for the increased infrastructure costs. I would estimate that 50 percent of the people I know in tech are unemployed including myself and my spouse. In addition they are laying off both FTEs and contractors and not backfilling the positions. The problem is exacerbated if you’re over 40 because they don’t want to compensate for experience. In fact experience seems to be working against people. Not to mention AI taking over roles like technical writing and marketing communications. It’s getting really bad out there and the large companies play along with the media. I’ve met with several ex colleagues who have had their entire teams laid off and former FTEs who have had to take major pay cuts as contractors. I’ve also heard of more rounds of layoffs coming up. I went over to Microsoft the other morning to have coffee with an ex colleague and it’s a ghost town. No one in conference rooms or offices. Maybe people are working from home but it sure felt very different.

That email resonated with me so strongly, because she is right.

Vast hordes of tech workers have already been laid off, and more will be hitting the bricks soon.

But the tech industry is supposed to be one of our economic bright spots.

If things are this bad for the tech industry, what does this say about the economy as a whole? READ MORE

RealMoneyBlog - Free daily/weekly email

5.1.24 - More Bank Failures to Come?

Gold last traded at $2,322 an ounce. Silver at $26.72 an ounce.

Billionaire investor David Einhorn shares an overlooked theory for why gold prices have spiked so much -Yahoo! Finance

Global central banks continue to gobble up gold. Billionaire investor David Einhorn believes this is why gold continues to shine even as hopes of a rate cut dwindle. But could there be a deeper reason? Other countries see the writing on the wall with the dismal future of our economy and it appears individual investors are starting to see it too. Gold, a long-trusted safe haven, is a harbor in this building tempest.

by Yuheng Zhan

Gold has had a record-setting year so far in 2024.

That being said, the commodity's sudden surge may come as a surprise. That's because the macro environment was supposed to create headwinds to gold's price appreciation, as the Federal Reserve's higher-for-longer interest rate stance typically makes other investments like bonds and saving accounts more appealing compared to the metal, as it's not a yield-bearing asset.

To explain the strong run for gold, billionaire investor David Einhorn offered a potential theory in his latest letter to investors published this week.

"While it's possible the advance was related to the market beginning to doubt the sustainability and wisdom of both monetary and fiscal policies, other indicia suggest that this was not the case," Einhorn said in the letter.

Instead, the Greenlight Capital founder said there's been a "secular trend" of the countries in the East buying gold from Western nations.

"Perhaps the West is running out of gold it is willing to sell, while Eastern demand has remained strong enough to force the price higher," he said in the statement.

Indeed, global central banks have been racing to buy gold, snapping up over 1,000 tonnes for the past two years straight, according to data from World Gold Council — and one of the biggest buyers is China. READ MORE

Republic First seizure signals more bank failures to come, expert warns -Fox Business

As the talking heads discuss news of each new bank failure, they seem to believe *this* will be the last one. And yet, another one bites the dust. But banking experts aren't wearing the same rose-colored glasses. Joseph Lynyak, a banking attorney, believes this is just the start of the next round of failures.

by Breck Dumas

Republic First Bank, a regional lender based out of Philadelphia, became the first bank failure of 2024 on Friday when it was shut down by Pennsylvania's bank regulator and the Federal Deposit Insurance Corp. (FDIC) seized control of the operation.

The FDIC quickly made a deal for Fulton Bank to buy Republic First's assets, but one expert on financial regulatory reform and bank failures says the collapse could be a harbinger of things to come.

"This bank failure indicates that additional failures will occur and will range between smaller community banks and larger banks," said Joseph Lynyak, a banking attorney at Dorsey & Whitney, regarding the seizure of Republic First by U.S. regulators.

"The cause is twofold: higher-cost deposits exceeding the yield on low-yield treasury securities and similar investments held by banks, and the deteriorating commercial real estate market and commercial real estate loans," said Lynyak, who specializes in bank receiverships and failures.

Regional banks have been struggling to retain deposits as customers seek the safety of larger "too-big-to-fail" rivals, and higher interest rates have diminished the value of their loan books due to increased unrealized losses and lower commercial real estate values. READ MORE

Bye-Bye, Goldilocks -Daily Reckoning

The Fed has touted that there would be three rate cuts by the end of the year. Wall Street rallied on this news even though there was little indication it would actually happen. Here we are on May 1, with no cuts made. Does the Fed have time, in an election year, to still squeeze in three? Perhaps, it will only be two, or one, or none. Larry Summers has even warned the Fed may end up having to raise rates yet again.

Last Friday’s GDP number came in weaker-than-expected at 1.6% annualized, the weakest quarterly gain in almost two years.

I’ve written for months that there would be no interest rate cut by the Fed at their June meeting. Wall Street was putting the odds of a rate cut at around 70% and the stock market was rallying in anticipating the cut.

They were wrong, I was right. That’s not to brag, it’s just that I use a better set of analytic tools than they do.

Today, every top Wall Street analyst is proclaiming there will be no rate cut in June, and maybe not in July either. Thanks, guys and gals. You’re only about three months behind the curve.

That’s worthless forecasting, but it’s what Wall Street does best.

Now there’s a chance that we won’t get any rate cuts this year. So Wall Street has been wrong about rate cuts for almost two years, and they’re wrong now.

Recall, by the late summer of 2022, Wall Street was already talking about the “pivot.”

This was jargon for a rate cut. No one expected it that soon, but early 2023 was Wall Street’s target date for the pivot. That never happened. Wall Street extended the pivot date of mid-2023. Then late 2023. Then early 2024. Wrong, wrong and wrong.

Moving the pivot date from June 2024 to later this year is just the latest blunder. READ MORE

RealMoneyBlog - Free daily/weekly email

4.30.24 - Gold Demand Hits Highest Level Since 2016

Gold last traded at $2,286 an ounce. Silver at $26.29 an ounce.

EDITOR'S NOTE: If you have wondered why gold prices have continued to rise so sharply for so long, here's one reason. Countries, institutions, banks and individuals have been buying gold at a record pace, causing rapid price appreciation. The better news? According to many, we're just getting started.

Gold Demand Hits Highest Level Since 2016, World Gold Council Says -Forbes

by Royston Wild

Demand for safe haven gold rose to its highest level in seven years in the first quarter of 2024, according to the World Gold Council.

Total bullion demand (including over-the-counter trades) rose 3% year on year between January and March, the body said, to 1,238 tonnes.

Excluding over-the-counter business, gold demand reversed 5% from the corresponding 2023 period, to 1,102 tonnes.

Average gold prices rose 10% year on year in quarter one, or 5% from the final three months of 2023, to an all-time quarterly high of $2,070 per ounce as macroeconomic and geopolitical drove demand for the flight-to-safety asset.

The WGC said that "healthy investment from the OTC market, persistent central bank buying, and higher demand from Asian buyers" all drove gold prices skywards last quarter.

The metal has continued to rise and struck fresh record highs of $2,364 per ounce in early April. It was last dealing at $2,314. READ MORE

RealMoneyBlog - Free daily/weekly email

4.29.24 - Republic First Bank seized by FDIC

Gold last traded at $2,335 an ounce. Silver at $27.10 an ounce.

EDITOR'S NOTE: It's not as though it wasn't expected, but more bank failures are upon us. Our banking system has been faltering for a while now, will one of these failures be the final straw?

Bank Failures Begin Again: Philly's Republic First Seized By FDIC -Zero Hedge

by Tyler Durden

Who could have seen that coming?

Admittedly, we were a couple of weeks off, but trouble has been brewing in the banking sector and tonight - after the close - we get the first bank failure of the year.

The FDIC just seized the troubled Philadelphia bank, Republic First Bancorp and and struck an agreement for the lender’s deposits and the majority of its assets to be bought by Fulton Bank.

Republic Bank had about $6 billion of assets and $4 billion of deposits at the end of January, according to the FDIC (considerably smaller than the $100-200BN assets with SVB and Signature).

The FDIC estimated the failure will cost the deposit insurance fund $667 million.

As The Wall Street Journal reports, Republic First had for months struggled to stay afloat.

Around half of its deposits were uninsured at the end of 2023, according to FDIC data.

Its total equity, or assets minus liabilities, was $96 million at the end of 2023, according to FDIC filings.

That excluded $262 million of unrealized losses on bonds that it labeled “held to maturity,” which means the losses hadn’t counted on its balance sheet.

Its stock, which was delisted from Nasdaq in August, had been near zero.

Republic Bank’s 32 branches across New Jersey, Pennsylvania and New York will reopen as branches of Fulton Bank on Saturday, according to a statement from the FDIC.

Depositors of Republic Bank will become depositors of Williamsport, Pennsylvania-based Fulton Bank, the regulator said.

You should not be surprised given that rates are higher now than they were at the start of the SVB crisis - which means, unless banks have hedged hard or dumped their bonds at a loss, they are even more underwater...READ MORE AND VIEW LINKS/CHARTS

RealMoneyBlog - Free daily/weekly email

4.26.24 - Is Something Starting To Break?

Gold last traded at $2,336 an ounce. Silver at $27.19 an ounce.

EDITOR'S NOTE: We've been hearing about the overvalued stock market and an impending correction for some time now, could that time finally be here? The bigger question is, will we really know before it's too late? This may shed some perspective for you.

Is Something Starting To Break? Stocks Plummet And Bonds Go Nuts As Economic Data Disappoints -The Economic Collapse

Are the financial markets headed for trouble? There was quite a bit of panic on Wall Street on Thursday after more bad economic numbers were released. But honestly I simply do not understand why the financial markets responded with such surprise. By now it should be apparent to everyone that we have a “Weekend at Bernie’s economy” that is being propped up by unprecedented levels of government spending. If we actually tried to live within our means, we would immediately plunge into a depression. Our politicians definitely do not want that, and so about every one hundred days they are adding another trillion dollars to the national debt, and the vast majority of that borrowed money goes directly into the veins of the corpse that we call the U.S. economy.

But even though we are absolutely flooding the system with cash stolen from future generations of Americans, economic performance has been extremely anemic.

On Thursday, the government reported that the U.S. economy grew at a 1.6 percent annualized rate during the first quarter of this year…

Gross domestic product, the broadest measure of goods and services produced across the economy, grew by 1.6% on an annualized basis in the three-month period from January through March, the Commerce Department said in its first reading of the data on Thursday.

That is much lower than the 2.4% increase forecast by LSEG economists and marks a sharp slowdown from the 3.4% pace seen during the fourth quarter. It is the slowest pace of growth in two years.

“This was a worst of both worlds report — slower than expected growth, higher than expected inflation,” said David Donabedian, chief investment officer of CIBC Private Wealth US. “The biggest setback is the acceleration in core inflation, and in particular, the services sector rising above a 5% annual rate.” READ MORE

RealMoneyBlog - Free daily/weekly email

4.25.24 - Chinese Have "Grabbed Gold By The Throat"

Gold last traded at $2,332 an ounce. Silver at $27.40 an ounce.

EDITOR'S NOTE: When financially concerned over market volatility, currency vulnerabilities or geopolitical turmoil, historically the sound strategy has been to move assets into gold. This is exactly what is taking place in China today. Why does this matter to Americans? The type of problems they're heading straight toward sound eerily identical to what we're facing here in the US.

Chinese Have "Grabbed Gold By The Throat" As Capital Flight Accelerates -ZeroHedge

“Chinese speculators have really grabbed gold by the throat...”

That is how John Reade, chief market strategist at the World Gold Council, describes the scramble in the communist nation among investors looking to move money anywhere but in the yuan or Chinese assets.

As evidenced by soaring Chinese FX outflows, the recent surges in 'alternate currencies' such as bitcoin and gold strongly suggest where the Chinese are seeking safety.

Of course, worsening geopolitical tensions, unprecedented fiscal profligacy by the Biden administration that shows no signs of slowing, and a Fed that seemed willing to support that spending with rate-cuts that were wholly un-necessary based on the 'data' they are so 'dependent' on (prompting fears of a policy error) are all factors driving precious metals higher, but, as Bloomberg reports, juicing the rally is unrelenting Chinese demand, as retail shoppers, fund investors, futures traders and even the central bank look to bullion as a store of value in uncertain times.

China and India have typically vied over the title of world’s biggest buyer. But that shifted last year as Chinese consumption of jewelry, bars and coins swelled to record levels. China’s gold jewelry demand rose 10% while India’s fell 6%. Chinese bar and coin investments, meanwhile, surged 28%.

And there’s still room for demand to grow, said Philip Klapwijk, managing director of Hong Kong-based consultant Precious Metals Insights Ltd. Amid limited investment options in China, the protracted crisis in its property sector, volatile stock markets and a weakening yuan are all driving money to assets that are perceived to be safer. READ MORE

RealMoneyBlog - Free daily/weekly email

4.24.24 - Wave Goodbye To Another Set Of Freedoms

Gold last traded at $2,319 an ounce. Silver at $27.23 an ounce.

What The Rising Gold Price Signals (Spoiler Alert: Nothing Good) -Zero Hedge

As I'm sure you realize by now, we believe the gold market is primed for what could potentially be explosive future gains, and that's after the increases we have already seen. What's of no less significance as the gains is the 'why' behind them ... it's not because of how great things look in the economy.

Authored by Antonius Aquinas

The recent run-up in the gold price has not garnered the attention among the mainstream financial media outlets as it should.

Gold has, in part, been overshadowed by the rise in the price of bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies.

Naturally, the financial press, which is really an arm of the government and its central bank, wants to ignore, as much as possible, references to gold as protection against the continuing increase in the price level which itself has been deliberately understated by monetary officials. The media and government understand that precious metals are the ultimate security against runaway inflation and economic collapse.

While the increase in the gold price has reached nominal highs, it and the price of silver have not passed their all-time 1980 highs in real terms.

Adjusted for inflation, gold would have to rise to about $3590 an ounce while silver would have to surpass $50 an ounce.

Both are poised to exceed these watermarks in the not-too-distant future. READ MORE

Wave Goodbye To Another Set Of Freedoms With The New Digital ID -Zero Hedge

There's little to no question that technology has created a lot of conveniences for us all, but at what cost? When these digital conveniences are coming from the government, there may be more to the story than what we're being told.

Authored by Graham Young via The Epoch Times

“Papers please” used to be the ostinato of totalitarian systems, at least in the movies.

With the passing of the government’s Digital ID bills, Australians will have to become used to the digital equivalent - so what does that say about present-day Australia?

A few things have surprised me over the last few years, not the least the way the famous Aussie spirit of insubordination has been subsumed into a goody-two-shoes compliance with whatever capricious orders the authorities made.

I can’t imagine our forebears accepting lockdowns and forced vaccinations, and I certainly couldn’t see them accepting an identity card linking not just government accounts but private sector ones as well.

While the first proposition is an assertion based on a gut feeling, the second is very much based on fact. READ MORE

This “Emperor” Has No Clothes -Daily Reckoning

This childhood story is one I remember reading countless times. Who would've known there would be more current day applications to the nude emperor. Probably not good when describing the actions and abilities of the Fed.

by James Rickards

Does the Fed even matter that much to the real economy and investor portfolios?

That’s an important question that doesn’t get nearly enough scrutiny. It’s possible that neither the Fed nor the reporters who cover the Fed want to ask hard questions about what the Fed really does.

Could it be the case that the emperor has no clothes?

Financial journalists often refer to a Goldilocks economy (“not too hot, not too cold, just right!”) as a tribute to the Fed’s finesse in handling rates. It’s also called the “soft landing” scenario because the Fed supposedly tamed inflation without causing a recession.

These narratives have no factual foundations; they’re just stories designed to get you to buy stocks and pump up stock prices.

The truth is the Fed is always behind the curve and doesn’t finesse the economy. And there’s no such thing as a soft landing; the economy does not gradually shift gears. It’s either growing fast or going into recession.

So where does the Fed stand today? Will it start cutting rates as Wall Street keeps (wrongly) predicting? READ MORE

RealMoneyBlog - Free daily/weekly email

4.23.24 - Ray Dalio: Gold a "good diversifier"

Gold last traded at $2,322 an ounce. Silver at $27.28 an ounce.

EDITOR'S NOTE: Swiss America has always advised our clients to diversify a portion of their portfolio into precious metals to hedge against geopolitical and economic turmoil. Many billionaires follow this same advice but they never talk about it until we are in these types of market conditions. Yes, today is a great time to enter the market if you have yet to follow this advice but it's advice that stands the test of time in all market conditions.

Billionaire investor Ray Dalio says he's owning gold to hedge the risk of debt and inflation crises -Business Insider

by Jennifer Sor

Ray Dalio is holding onto gold as a buffer against risks stemming from higher inflation and a potential debt crisis hitting the economy.

The billionaire investor and former Bridgewater Associates CEO has pointed to mounting debt balances around the world, with the US debt notching $34 trillion for the first time ever this year. Debt problems have also plagued China, Japan, and European nations — which poses a big risk for the currencies in those nations, he wrote in a post on LinkedIn this week.

"History and logic show that when there are big risks that the debts will either 1) not be paid back or 2) be paid back with money of depreciated value, the debt and the money become unattractive," Dalio wrote on Thursday.

When nations are deeply indebted, central banks are likely to print out more cash to pay off the debt, he noted, which is itself a problem.

"This prevents a big debt squeeze from happening by devaluing the money (i.e., inflation)," Dalio warned. "Gold, on the other hand, is a non-debt-backed form of money. It's like cash, except unlike cash and bonds, which are devalued by risks of default or inflation, gold is supported by risks of debt defaults and inflation."

That's the main reason Dalio says he has gold in his own investment portfolio, he added, calling it a "good diversifier" against the backdrop of high debt levels.

Gold has been on a record-setting run in recent weeks. Investors have been keen to buy the precious metal amid the looming risk of recession and inflation remaining stuck at elevated levels, as well as fears of wider geopolitical turmoil out of the Middle East. READ MORE

RealMoneyBlog - Free daily/weekly email

4.22.24 - Fed: 1,804 banks tapped emergency lending facility

Gold last traded at $2,390 an ounce. Silver at $28.67 an ounce.

EDITOR'S NOTE: If you were wondering how the banks have fared after the wave of failures we faced last year, wonder no more. Many of them continue to struggle. What will happen now that their safety net is no longer in place?

Fed says 1,804 banks and other institutions tapped emergency lending facility -Yahoo! Finance

(Reuters) - Some 1,804 depository institutions tapped the emergency lending facility set up last March in the wake of Silicon Valley Bank's collapse, amounting to about 20% of all eligible firms, the Federal Reserve said on Friday.

About 95% of the borrowers, which included banks, credit unions, savings associations, and branches and agencies of foreign banks, had less than $10 billion in assets, the U.S. central bank said in its semi-annual Financial Stability Report.

The Bank Term Funding Program, as it was called, was aimed at addressing a liquidity crunch after a run on deposits led to the failures of SVB and Signature Bank and forced financial authorities to stage a rescue of the sector.

The facility lent on collateral without applying the usual haircuts and the loans were made on cheap terms.

The program stopped making new loans on March 11, a year after its creation. At its peak it extended a total of $165 billion in loans, with terms of up to a year. It is expected to close down completely by next March. READ MORE

RealMoneyBlog - Free daily/weekly email

4.19.24 - Is America's Economic Standing at Risk?

Gold last traded at $2,390 an ounce. Silver at $28.67 an ounce.

EDITOR'S NOTE: The IMF is sounding the alarm that America's profligate spending and ever-growing debt is highly problematic. The financial institutions expects we will reach a new record deficit in 2025 that will be "more than triple the level in other advanced economies." That's a frightening prediction. What can you do to protect yourself? Diversify into inflation-proof assets now.

IMF sounds alarm on ballooning US national debt: 'Something will have to give' -Fox Business

by Megan Henney

The astronomical rise in the U.S. national debt poses "significant risks" to the global economy and threatens to continue fueling high inflation, according to a new warning from the International Monetary Fund.

In its latest Fiscal Monitor, the Washington-based institution said that it expects the U.S. to record a fiscal deficit of 7.1% in 2025 – more than triple the level in other advanced economies.

"Loose fiscal policy in the United States exerts upward pressure on global interest rates and the dollar," Vitor Gaspar, director of the IMF’s fiscal affairs department, told reporters. "It pushes up funding costs in the rest of the world, thereby exacerbating existing fragilities and risks."

Under current policies, public debt in the U.S. is projected to nearly double by 2053. The IMF identified "large fiscal slippages" in the U.S. in 2023, with government spending surpassing revenue by 8.8% of GDP – a 4.1% increase from the previous year, despite strong economic growth.

If this trend continues, the Congressional Budget Office anticipates the national debt will grow to an astonishing $54 trillion in the next decade. Higher interest rates are also compounding the pain of higher debt.

Should that debt materialize, it could risk America's economic standing in the world. READ MORE

RealMoneyBlog - Free daily/weekly email

4.18.24 - Is the stock market headed for hard 'reset'?

Gold last traded at $2,380 an ounce. Silver at $28.23 an ounce.

EDITOR'S NOTE: The bulls of the stock market have been running for quite some time now, full steam ahead. Lately though, bearish signals have started to sound. Are investors listening to those signals after more than a decade of no-end-in-sight returns? Complacency may mean some hard times ahead for those not heeding the warnings.

The stock market is headed for a hard 'reset' that could take years to recover from, CIO says -Business Insider

by Jennifer Sor

Stocks have been in the midst of a long bull market, but there are signs that it's finally going to run out of steam and will inevitably be followed by a bear market and a difficult "reset," according to Chris Vermeulen,CIO of Technical Traders.

In an interview with Bloomberg, the investment chief pointed to the recent run-up in defensive assets, like precious metals, energy stocks, and industrial stocks. Those areas all typically do well in the late stage of a bull market, which is inevitably followed by a bear market or a "financial reset," Vermeulen said.

Investors are likely heading into another bear market, similar to the ones that followed the dot-com bubble and the 2008 financial crisis, he predicted. That could end up sparking painful stock losses for investors, with people seeing their wealth decline as much as 30%-50% over the next year, he warned.

"I think we're coming into a major market top, more or less a financial reset," Vermeulen said Tuesday. "It's short-term, temporarily painful. But we need markets to reset. We need regular pullbacks and corrections in order for the market to keep going up."

That reset could also come with a recession, Vermeulen said, with industrial stocks in particular signaling a slowdown for the economy. While the sector has done well in recent months, buyers of industrial goods typically upgrade their equipment at the end of an economic growth cycle, due to "huge delays" between slowing business and orders for new machinery.

"They don't realize we're coming to the end of a growth cycle, and the music is about to stop," Vermeulen said of US firms. "Industrial stocks have just continued to muscle their way higher. They're hitting all-time highs, and that is a sign that we're going to see these companies eventually start to slow down." READ MORE

RealMoneyBlog - Free daily/weekly email

4.17.24 - Goldman Sachs Makes Gold Price Prediction

Gold last traded at $2,372 an ounce. Silver at $28.28 an ounce.

Brace for the S&P 500 to crash 30% before an even bigger collapse after the election, markets guru David Brady warns - Business Insider

For months now, domestic markets have been awash in volatility. Many of the great financial minds have been warning of an impending crash. CEOs are cashing out their positions of their own stocks en masse. Is this all just coincidence or do they see the writing on the wall?

by Theron Mohamed

Prepare for stocks to plunge 30%, rebound before the presidential election, then crash to their lowest level in 14 years, a markets analyst warned.

The S&P 500 is poised to plummet from over 5,000 points to an 18-month low of 3,500 points, David Brady said on the latest "Thoughtful Money" podcast episode .

Brady is a money manager, former foreign exchange trader, and the author of "The FIPEST Report" which analyzes metals and miners. He argued that stocks are massively overvalued , investors face much greater downside risk than potential upside, and a sell-off looks assured.

However, he predicted the Federal Reserve would step in to reverse the coming decline by cutting interest rates and growing its balance sheet — especially as the Biden administration will want a strong stock market and economy going into the November election.

However, he cautioned the rebound wouldn't last given mounting domestic and international pressure on the economy.

"My two cents is short term, 20-30% drop, but then the Fed responds as it always does and the market goes up," Brady said. "After the election, stocks are going to get hammered."

"I expect the stock market to drop because of what's going on in the economy and elsewhere in the world," he said about his anticipated post-election decline. READ MORE

BRICS: Goldman Sachs Makes Major Gold Price Prediction -Watcher.Guru

The price of gold has a lot going for it these days. With geopolitical tensions rising, the BRICS nations acquiring their own reserves and US economic policy continuing to degrade the dollar; all signs point to a banner year for the yellow metal. Goldman Sachs has joined the growing chorus of financial powerhouses calling for a major uptick this year.

by Joshua Ramos

Amid the ongoing BRICS acquisition strategy that has driven global interest, Goldman Sachs has made a major gold price prediction. Indeed, the investment bank forecasted the metal to reach a price of $2,700 in 2024 after its tremendous value increase throughout the year thus far.

The financial institution released an investment note that reevaluated Gold’s position amid its strong performance. The metal had been thriving, recently hitting another all-time high this year, surpassing $2,400 this weekend. One of the most important catalysts for the increased value of the metal has been the BRICS alliance. Indeed, the collective has influenced diversification strategies for Central Banks throughout the world.

Throughout the year, the price of gold has seen its value steadily increase. However, this extends to December of 2023, when the asset surpassed the $2,135 mark for the first time. That would set a trend for the metal, which has continued to set all-time marks throughout the year.

Now, that development has caught the attention of one of the world’s most prominent financial institutions. Specifically, amid BRICS and global interest, Goldman Sachs has made major gold price predictions. Indeed, the bank has forecasted the metal to reach a price of $2,700 by the end of the year.

In the investor note, the bank said that “none of those traditional factors adequately explain the velocity and scale of the gold price move so far this year.” Subseuqnlety, one of the biggest reasons for its increase is tied to macroeconomic concerns and the metal’s status as a haven asset. READ MORE

Silver’s Record Industrial Demand and Deficit to Underpin Prices -Yahoo! Finance

While gold has received most of the attention lately, silver is still shining brightly as a safe haven metal amid a world in turmoil. With demand up and supplies running low, silver is poised to break records of its own this year.

by Yvonne Yue Li

(Bloomberg) -- After a strong start to the year, silver should remain supported by record industrial usage and a supply deficit, according to the Silver Institute.

Industrial consumption hit an all-time high in 2023 and is expected to expand another 9% this year, driven by green-related applications such as solar panels, the institute said in its World Silver Survey report on Wednesday. That will help the metal record a fourth straight annual supply shortage.

Silver, known as the devil’s metal because of its often wild swings, is trading near a three-year high as it tracks a rally in gold that has partly been fueled by demand for a haven amid geopolitical tensions. Silver prices will be underpinned by the persistent deficit, said Philip Newman, managing director at consultancy Metals Focus, which was commissioned to produce the report.

Silver has rallied 20% already this year to trade at about $28.55 an ounce in London. Prices could hit $30 in the near term, Newman said in an interview. READ MORE

RealMoneyBlog - Free daily/weekly email

4.16.24 - Gold is Back

Gold last traded at $2,394 an ounce. Silver at $28.31 an ounce.

EDITOR'S NOTE: There is more than meets the eye in the recent run up in gold prices. Sure, inflation plays a role; but many investors turn to gold in times of instability and turmoil. Gold may simply be offering a hedge right now, but it also may have reached a tipping point which could push it exponentially higher.

Gold is back — and it has a message for us -Financial Times

by Rana Foroohar

It’s easy to mock gold bugs, but their moment may finally have come. The precious metal has been breaking out recently amid higher than expected inflation in the US, and general anxiety over everything from geopolitics to the November presidential elections to where monetary policy and markets go from here.

All these things are predictable reasons for gold to surge. But there are deeper, longer-term messages in this rise that investors should pay very close attention to.

Let’s start with inflation. Whatever happens over the next few quarters, I’ve long thought that we were in for a period of “higher for longer” inflation. Aside from the possibility of a technology-driven productivity miracle, it’s hard to think of a macro-trend at the moment that isn’t inflationary.

The economy is running hot — from fiscal stimulus in the US to more supply chain redundancy as countries de-risk, to all the capital investment required for the clean energy transition and re-industrialisation in rich countries. Even ageing US baby boomers are likely to be an inflationary force, since they have health, time and plenty of money to spend.

Gold is historically an inflation hedge. But it’s also something investors turn to when they are worried about the stability of the status quo. It will languish for decades, then break out when the world is at a major pivot point, as it is now. READ MORE

RealMoneyBlog - Free daily/weekly email

4.15.24 - 'Opportunity of a lifetime' for gold and silver

Gold last traded at $2,385 an ounce. Silver at $28.93 an ounce.

EDITOR'S NOTE: Gold and silver have been in the headlines recently, but many people interested in precious metals fear they have already been priced out. According to MarketWatch, the perfect time to buy may just be this week. We are encouraging our clients to continue adding to their holdings as prices find their footing. Many experts are still calling for a gold price of $3000/oz by Q4.

Iran, Israel developments could lead to the 'opportunity of a lifetime' for gold and silver -MarketWatch

By Myra P. Saefong

The opportunity for investors to buy gold and silver at cheaper prices may unfold this week, an analyst said following Iran's drone and missile attacks on Israel over the weekend.

The escalation of unprecedented tension between Iran and Israel is going to "show up in the markets as fear," said Peter Spina, founder and president of investor websites GoldSeek.com and SilverSeek.com.

If there is a major financial market selloff -- "a liquidity event", there could be some spillover into precious metals, he said. A selloff in the stock market can, as it has in the past, lead investors to seek out ways to cover their losses, including a sale of their precious-metals holdings.

"This could be a buying opportunity of a lifetime for precious metals," said Spina. "The gold price is reflecting all sorts of problems, risks, and now the fear-war premium will likely be added should there be no quick de-escalation to these very serious events in the Middle East." READ MORE

RealMoneyBlog - Free daily/weekly email

4.12.24 - JP Morgan Issues Major US Financial Warning

Gold last traded at $2,342 an ounce. Silver at $27.95 an ounce.

EDITOR'S NOTE: In a time when most families are struggling to get by, many are hoping for some financial relief on the horizon. According to Jamie Dimon, the only thing on the horizon is more pressure on our US economy, and the dollar, from abroad.

BRICS: JP Morgan Issues Major US Financial Warning -Watcher.Guru

by Vinod Dsouza

Leading investment bank JP Morgan has issued a major financial warning that could affect the US economy this year. The CEO Jamie Dimon told investors on Monday that he believes the US economy will be affected by forces from outside of America. The JP Morgan CEO explained that he worries about geopolitical events including the Russia-Ukraine war, the Israel-Palestine conflict, and the BRICS de-dollarization agenda to create an economic risk on the US markets.

“These significant and somewhat unprecedented forces cause us to remain cautious,” said JP Morgan CEO Dimon.

Dimon stressed that America’s global leadership is being challenged by developing countries including the SCO bloc, ASEAN group, and BRICS. The CEO of JP Morgan said that while BRICS and other countries are looking to uproot the US dollar, the polarized electorate in America is causing further division. He called the development a “great crisis” that threatens free Western enterprises.

The comments from Dimon were made in the Annual Shareholder Letter this year. “America’s global leadership role is being challenged outside by other nations and inside by our polarized electorate,” he said. The JP Morgan head hinted that BRICS will not be the only alliance that kick-starts the de-dollarization agenda. He urged that the US must put aside all differences and work closely with developing countries. READ MORE

RealMoneyBlog - Free daily/weekly email

4.11.24 - Bank Of America Sees Gold At $3,000

Gold last traded at $2,373 an ounce. Silver at $28.45 an ounce.

EDITOR'S NOTE: Another day, another headline highlighting gold. Bank of America has jumped on the $3,000-an-ounce-gold bandwagon. Simply put, with gold trading at $2,350 today, and the number of predictions saying $3,000 gold is coming, don't wait any longer to buy! Call us at 800-289-2646 and one of our representatives can walk you through how easy it is to get physical gold in your portfolio.

Bank Of America Sees Gold At $3,000, Warns Of A Copper Supply Crisis: Metals 'Dance To Their Own Tune' -Business Insider

Gold prices are projected to jump to $3,000 per ounce by 2025, according to Bank of America, buoyed by strong demand from central banks and the anticipation of investors returning to the market once the Federal Reserve begins to slash interest rates.

Michael Widmer, the bank’s commodity strategist, highlighted gold’s resilience as central banks tighten monetary policies.

“Gold prices have been remarkably resilient in recent months, notwithstanding central banks around the world tightening monetary policy,” said Widmer.

The Chinese central bank, in particular, has played a significant role in supporting the gold market, amassing over $200 tonnes of the yellow metal in 2023 alone. This elevated buying also depends on the heightened activity in China’s retail sector, with jewelry sales and non-monetary gold imports “hitting record highs earlier this year.”

“If the Fed ultimately starts cutting rates, investors should return to the market, also offsetting potentially lower Chinese investment demand as sentiment there improves and the economy accelerates. We had previously proposed a US$2,400/oz price estimate if the Fed cut rates in 1Q24; we now raise that and see gold rallying to US$3,000/oz by 2025,” Widmer affirmed. READ MORE

RealMoneyBlog - Free daily/weekly email

4.10.24 - Dethroning the Dollar

Gold last traded at $2,335 an ounce. Silver at $27.89 an ounce.

Consumer Prices Print Hotter Than Expected, Led By Surge In Energy & Shelter Costs- ZeroHedge

The inflation wave continues to roll, according to recent data, and this is becoming a bigger and bigger financial nightmare for families by the day. Adding to the already concerning figures, there is no relief in sight.

by Tyler Durden

After increasing MoM for the last five months, headline CPI was expected to slow modestly in March (from +0.4% MoM to +0.3% MoM), but obviously still rising. However, it did not, rising a hotter than expected 0.4% MoM (equal highest since August 2023) and pushing it up 3.5% YoY...

Energy and Services dominated the rise on a YoY basis (with the former flipping from YoY deflation)...

Core CPI also rose more than expected (+0.4% MoM) pushing the YoY move up 3.8% (hotter than the 3.7% exp)...

Within the core index, goods costs continue to deflate on a YoY basis but services are re-acclerating...

That is the fourth straight month of 'hotter than expected' Core CPI...READ MORE AND VIEW CHARTS

BRICS Alternative To SWIFT Can Dethrone US Dollar -Watcher.Guru

There has been plenty of discussion lately surrounding the demise of the US dollar. At the forefront of this discussion is the alliance known as BRICS. Their movement to dethrone the dollar is no longer a dream, it's becoming a reality.

by Vinod Dsouza

Source: Watcher Guru

The main motto of BRICS is to dethrone the US dollar and make local currencies the de facto global currency. Read here to know how many sectors in the US will be affected if BRICS ditches the dollar for trade.

Russia’s Central Bank Governor Elvira Nabiullina confirmed that the BRICS alternative to SWIFT is currently under work. Additionally, she revealed that the sanctions pressed by the US and Western allies are the reason why they plan to launch an alternative payment system to SWIFT.

The Governor stressed that the US will have no political or financial power to press sanctions once the alternative payment system is out. “A big portion of the world is always under threat of US or European sanctions. And it’s in their interest to create an alternative system. The initial promise or purpose of SWIFT wasn’t to be used in the sanctions system, and they changed the rules.” READ MORE

Gold prices have another 50% upside through 2025 if inflation jumps again, market vet says -Business Insider

As 2023 closed with gold prices hovering in the $2,000 an ounce range, several analysts were suggesting gold prices could hit levels of over $3,000 an ounce by the end of 2024. We've already had a strong start, and it appears there may be even more upside than $3,000 given the current pace.

by Jennifer Sor

Gold prices could soar through the end of 2025 if inflation stages a comeback, according to market veteran Ed Yardeni.

The Yardeni Research president predicted that gold prices could rise as high as $3,500 by the end of next year, implying as much as a 49% upside for the precious metal from Monday's price around $2,347. That's because inflation could follow the path it did in the 1970s, when prices began to spiral and gold went from $35 an ounce to a peak of $665 an ounce.

"The price of gold is soaring in new high territory," Yardeni said in a note to clients on Sunday, referring to gold prices notching an all-time record in March . "Another wage-price spiral attributable to rising oil prices would be very reminiscent of the Great Inflation of the 1970s, when the price of gold soared. In this scenario, $3,000-$3,500 per ounce would be a realistic target for gold through 2025."

Consumer prices have cooled dramatically from their highs above 9% in 2022, with inflation rising 3.2% in February, but market commentators have warned of a potential resurgence of inflation thanks to supply-chain disruptions stemming from geopolitical conflicts and the strong US labor market. READ MORE

RealMoneyBlog - Free daily/weekly email

4.9.24 - Silver at All-Time High By November?

Gold last traded at $2,353 an ounce. Silver at $28.16 an ounce.

EDITOR'S NOTE: If you've been wondering whether or not it's a good time to buy silver, wonder no longer. With silver resting at just below the $30 an ounce mark today, many analysts are suggesting the price will be over $50 an ounce by year's end; which would make it a great investment and a great portfolio diversifier.

Michael Oliver – Silver Should Hit All-Time High Above $50 By November

by Michael Oliver

The red horizontal on momentum is plotted through pivotal low closing readings (2021) and then pivotal high closing readings (2022 to 2024).

We’ve studied this situation archivally, and when we find major horizontal long- term momentum structures (in this case a flat horizontal structure encompassing several years of basing action), the outcome is dramatic and much of it occurs in the next two quarters.

And that move is almost always a massive percentage gain for silver and gold.

We’re also monitoring our silver/gold spread (report sent April 4th). The breakout of that dynamic will echo and enhance (!) this breakout.

We expect that before the 2024 election there’s a solid chance silver will be well above its $50 price highs of the past fifty years. Yes, there will likely be at least one major wobble in that move, and we’ll try to identify that event in advance. And, yes, there will no doubt be many daily wobbles/selloffs too. Our focus will be on a potential (and premature) profit-taking wobble that involves a month or more of adverse action, not just two days here or there. Stay tuned… VIEW CHARTS AND READ MORE

RealMoneyBlog - Free daily/weekly email

4.8.24 - 30% more upside for gold?

Gold last traded at $2,338 an ounce. Silver at $27.80 an ounce.

EDITOR'S NOTE: As the year began, we featured articles that foresaw gold prices hitting levels of over $3,000 in 2024. At the time, that move would have been roughly a 50% increase. Here we are in April and that gap has closed 20% already. Just one more reason to diversify your investments into metals today.

Why record-setting gold prices will fend off headwinds and see 30% more upside, according to famed economist David Rosenberg -Yahoo! Finance

While investors have been riding high on a record-breaking stock market, their favorite safe haven has also reached new peaks.

Gold prices reached a historic $2,328.70 per ounce last week, and one economist says the momentum could carry the yellow metal to $3,000 before the next business cycle shift — a 30% increase from current levels.

That's according to famed economist David Rosenberg, the president of Rosenberg Research. He said in a recent note that the latest gold run is "especially impressive," because it not only surpassed bitcoin and every major currency, but also overcame typical macro headwinds that often depress its value.

"The rise in the gold price has come at a time of dollar strength, falling inflation expectations, and during which the Fed has moved market expectations toward a 'higher for longer' conviction. All those developments would typically hurt the gold price, but it's forged ahead regardless," his team wrote in the note.

But before plunging into the hype around bullion's future, it's worth peeling back what's behind the recent surge. READ MORE

RealMoneyBlog - Free daily/weekly email

4.5.24 - Veteran strategist: gold is headed to $3,000

Gold last traded at $2,322 an ounce. Silver at $27.39 an ounce.

EDITOR'S NOTE: At the end of 2023, we started to see a few predictions of gold reaching $3000 in the near-term. In recent weeks, more and more mainstream market experts have made the same call. Those who heeded those early forecasts are sitting pretty right now having already realized an 11% gain. If you haven't taken action, do so now, before the next price increase.

Veteran strategist says grab your hammer and pick — gold is headed to $3,000 -MarketWatch

by Barbara Kollmeyer

Gold has been 2024’s dark horse asset, logging record after record since early March and a roughly 11% gain for investors in 2024.

The run for the commodity GC00 has caused some head-scratching. As a rule of thumb, falling interest rates make gold more attractive to hold as it’s a nonyielding asset, and hopes for easing this year are high.

Some, like Commerzbank, caution that increasing uncertainty over Fed cuts will be a headwind for the metal. “We doubt that the Fed will embark on a pronounced easing cycle and therefore see limited further upside potential for gold in the medium term,” Commerzbank analyst Thu Lan Nguyen told clients on Wednesday.

But move over doubters, because our call of the day from the founder and president of Rosenberg Research, David Rosenberg, sees gold headed to $3,000 or even higher, and not just driven by the Fed.

“With an easing cycle on the horizon, global growth weak and looking weaker, and inflation on its last leg of decline, we’re of the view that the tailwinds blowing gold to new highs are about to get a lot stronger,” said Rosenberg, in a note to clients.

He points to increased demand by global central banks fretting about China’s yuan and an overreliance on the dollar, and strong appetite by retail gold markets, such as a booming India. READ MORE

RealMoneyBlog - Free daily/weekly email

4.4.24 - A Must-See Silver Price Chart

Gold last traded at $2,291 an ounce. Silver at $26.93 an ounce.

EDITOR'S NOTE: The excitement surrounding silver continues to grow. The first bullish target is $34.70 and the next is $50.00, both expected to happen within the year. With the current global demand, these seem like very reasonable targets. What do you think about these charts and their analyses?

A Stunning And Must-See Silver Price Chart - Investing Haven

The monthly silver price chart is simply stunning. It is THE most powerful chart, in financial markets, not just for April of 2024 but for the entire year.

“When oh when is your bullish silver prediction going to materialize,” is what many have been asking us. “Wait and see, relax, be patient,” was our default answer.

April 2024 seems to become a BIG month for silver.

If anything, silver’s price chart in April of 2024 is absolutely stunning.

While we do realize that the month has just begun, we also have sufficient evidence that this cycle is very bullish for precious metals. Our gold forecast 2024 is already achieved, it might be crushed during this quarter.

Below is the monthly silver price chart over 20 years. While the 50 year silver chart is impressive, we need a shorter timeframe to understand the medium term impact of dominant patterns.

The 20-year silver price chart could not have been any clearer than this – a clear and powerful silver breakout is ongoing. The upside target remains $34.70 which might be hit in May of 2024 already. READ MORE AND VIEW CHART

RealMoneyBlog - Free daily/weekly email

4.3.24 - Gold Investing Madness Just Getting Started

Gold last traded at $2,300 an ounce. Silver at $27.20 an ounce.

US banking crisis of 2023 could easily happen again -Money Control

Could this year bring more bank failures as regulators fail to see all of the vulnerabilities modern banking brings? The reforms actually needed in the banking industry will take time and effort - two qualities in short supply in an election year.

by Bill Dudley

Ever since the demise of Silicon Valley Bank in March 2023, regulators have been focused primarily on increasing loss-absorbing capital at the largest US financial institutions. Much less attention has been paid to the problem that precipitated last spring’s banking crisis: banks’ vulnerability to sudden depositor withdrawals.

The SVB debacle exposed three weaknesses. First, depositors pulled their money much faster than assumed by requirements such as the liquidity coverage ratio, intended to ensure that banks have enough cash and easy-to-sell assets to survive 30 days of withdrawals. Second, the Federal Reserve couldn’t provide sufficient emergency discount-window loans, because banks hadn’t pledged enough collateral to the Fed. Third, uninsured depositors had ample reason to run, because they couldn’t be sure the government would make them whole: Such bailouts can happen only after a bank fails and regulators judge that the situation is bad enough to invoke the “systemic risk exception.”

What to do? Certainly, regulators need to recognise that depositor runs will be much faster, and outflow rates much higher, in an era of social media and 24-hour banking. Yet requiring banks to hold a lot more high-quality assets in response would be counterproductive. Tougher liquidity requirements would force banks to divert funds away from lending. READ MORE

The Gold Investing Madness Is Just Getting Started -Forbes

Our main takeaway in this piece from Bob Haber, "I currently recommend seizing every opportunity to accumulate gold on dips and to allocate a suitable portion of one's portfolio to it."

by Bob Haber

It's that time of year again—the end of March Madness, a period when sports fans are fully immersed in the exhilarating action of the NCAA men’s and women’s playoff basketball games spanning several weeks. What unites sports enthusiasts during this period is the quest for an elusive perfect bracket. With more than tens of millions of Americans submitting brackets each year, anyone who has participated knows the exhilarating feeling of believing they've made perfect picks before the tournament begins. But as it usually goes, you get some predictions right, some wrong, all while glued to the screen, eagerly hoping every bounce of the ball favors your choices.

It’s funny. The March Madness approach doesn’t sound too different from how many investors approach the stock market.

But the analogy between the tournament and investing breaks down when it comes to asset allocation. Holding uncorrelated assets in a portfolio isn't a matter of luck; it's based on Nobel Prize-worthy mathematics. Recognizing when a major asset class is transitioning from a good diversifier to a potentially lucrative investment opportunity isn't about luck either. As I've highlighted in my previous pieces ( Gold Can’t Be Downgraded and It’s No One’s Liability (forbes.com) and When The Gold Dust Settled (forbes.com)), such is the case for Gold at present. What is fortunate, however, is the apparent lack of attention to this, which could also be construed as a bullish sign.

In March, Gold broke out of a nearly four-year range to reach new all-time highs above $2,200 per ounce. When Gold breaks out, many assume that geopolitical crises are driving the surge. However, there haven't been any recent significant shocks from conflicts in the Middle East or Europe, which are typically catalysts for such rapid increases in the price of the yellow metal. READ MORE

Inflation-Risk Latecomers Pile Into Silver -ZeroHedge

Silver is long overdue for a run up. With gold already off and running, many are looking at silver as a more affordable inflation hedge.

Authored by Simon White, Bloomberg macro strategist

As gold makes new highs, speculators’ net longs in silver are jumping higher.

Inflation and global growth risks - as well as demand from China - are helping to drive gold to new all-time highs. For those late to the trade, silver is serving as the next best thing.

Silver remains well off the highs it reached in 1980 (the Hunt brothers’ infamous corner) and in 2011, and it is very cheap in comparison to gold.

That probably explains the surge higher in speculator net longs in silver, according to the Commitment of Traders data.

Silver positioning, from being nearly flat a month ago, is now near five-year highs, and longer on a percentile basis than any other major bond, equity or commodity future.

Silver is notoriously volatile, and if speculators are correct in their view, the gains could be rapid and large.

It’s up today over 9% in the last few days, topping its recent high of ~$26. VIEW CHARTS

RealMoneyBlog - Free daily/weekly email

4.2.24 - 'Severe, irreversible scars' for America?

Gold last traded at $2,279 an ounce. Silver at $26.12 an ounce.

EDITOR'S NOTE: We continue to see the great financial minds of our day share their grave concerns over the snowballing debt, but it seems Washington is still choosing to turn a deaf ear and instead paint a rosy picture of our economic outlook; as we get ever closer to a pivotal election. Do our currently elected officials ever intend to pay back this debt? Or will they continue to inflate their way out until it's no longer their problem?

America will be left with ‘severe, irreversible scars’ if national debt goes unchecked. Now, a blockbuster report warns the bill is higher than believed, hitting $141T by 2054 -Yahoo! Finance

by Eleanor Pringle

National debt is fast becoming the thorn in the side of the American economy that nobody wants to extract—and it will continue to cause damage, sending the U.S. into financial crisis and 10 years of stagnation.

That is increasingly the opinion of a growing number of experts who are sounding the alarm over the pace at which the U.S. government is gathering debt. More important, they fear this debt will mean the country will not be able to afford necessary borrowing in the future, in addition to the funds needed to service existing debt.

Among the ranks of those in the concerned camp are Fed Chairman Jerome Powell, JPMorgan Chase CEO Jamie Dimon, Bank of America CEO Brian Moynihan, BlackRock CEO Larry Fink, and Wharton vice dean Joao Gomes.

Their outlook is evidenced by a March report from the Congressional Budget Office (CBO). The CBO estimates that by 2054 public debt will represent 166% of GDP, reaching $141.1 trillion.

Currently the nation’s $34 trillion debt is approximately 99% of GDP and, according to the CBO, will steadily increase over the next 30 years. In the near term, the CBO expects debt as a percentage of GDP to exceed the record peak of the Second World War by 2029.

This mounting debt, the CBO writes, “would slow economic growth, push up interest payments to foreign holders of U.S. debt, and pose significant risks to the fiscal and economic outlook; it could also cause lawmakers to feel more constrained in their policy choices.” READ MORE

RealMoneyBlog - Free daily/weekly email

4.1.24 - Silver's turn to shine

Gold last traded at $2,254 an ounce. Silver at $25.15 an ounce.

EDITOR'S NOTE: Precious metals continue to capture headlines as the uncertainties surrounding our economy continue to mount. Silver is now gaining more attention as many believe silver may perform just as well as gold in the coming months. Both metals are proving to be more than just a good place to diversify, they are becoming a necessity given our markets.

It may be silver's turn to shine after the gold rush to record high prices -MarketWatch

By Myra P. Saefong

$35 to $50 silver prices may become a 'real possibility' this year: analyst

Gold has generally outpaced performance in silver over the last few years, but the tide may soon turn in favor of silver.

Forecasts pointing to a fourth straight yearly deficit in global supplies and a rise in demand to its second-highest level on record raise the potential for silver prices to rally, and even roughly double before the end of 2024.

"Naturally, there will be growing interest in silver the higher the gold price goes," said Peter Spina, founder and president of investor websites GoldSeek.com and SilverSeek.com.

'Naturally, there will be growing interest in silver the higher the gold price goes.'Peter Spina, GoldSeek.com

Gold futures (GC00) (GCM24) settled at $2,238.40 an ounce on Comex Thursday, the highest finish on record. Silver futures, meanwhile, rose to a 2024 high of $25.975 on March 21- nowhere near its record intraday high of $50.36 from Jan. 18, 1980, according to Dow Jones Market Data.

"Gold prices are already breaking out to record highs," said Spina. Silver, meanwhile, "traditionally lags and has been doing so for some time."

But the "window is closing," he said. "The opportunity to buy 'poor man's gold' is ending and from a technical perspective, we are likely to see a huge price acceleration" in silver (SI00) (SIK24) in the coming quarters. READ MORE

RealMoneyBlog - Free daily/weekly email

3.28.24 - ‘Snowballing Debt’ Hitting US Economy

Gold last traded at $2,232 an ounce. Silver at $24.95 an ounce.

EDITOR'S NOTE: More and more financial minds are warning of America’s impending debt doom, but will anyone listen? In an election year, chances are low. Since our leaders don’t seem to be willing - or able - to make the tough decisions needed to get the problem under control, what can you do to protect yourself? Now is the time to get your portfolio balanced with the assets that can ride out the coming storm.

Larry Fink Warns of ‘Snowballing Debt’ Hitting US Economy -Yahoo! Finance

(Bloomberg) -- BlackRock Inc. Chief Executive Officer Larry Fink said the US public debt situation “is more urgent than I can ever remember” and that the country needs to adopt policies to spur economic growth.

The nation can’t rely on taxes and spending cuts to get the problem under control, Fink wrote in his annual letter Tuesday. He raised the prospect of a “bad scenario” akin to Japan’s economy in the late 1990s and early 2000s, which led to a period of austerity and stagnation.

“A high-debt America would also be one where it’s much harder to fight inflation since monetary policymakers could not raise rates without dramatically adding to an already unsustainable debt-servicing bill,” said Fink, 71.

The cost of servicing the debt has already ballooned, and the 3 percentage points in extra interest payments the US government now must pay on 10-year Treasuries compared with three years ago is “very dangerous,” he wrote.

“More leaders should pay attention to America’s snowballing debt,” Fink wrote, saying the US can’t take for granted that investors will continue to want to buy as much US debt. Foreign countries are building their own capital markets and are likely to invest domestically, he said. READ MORE

RealMoneyBlog - Free daily/weekly email

3.27.24 - Gold $2,600

Gold last traded at $2,192 an ounce. Silver at $24.58 an ounce.

Swift sets industry up for seamless introduction of CBDCs for cross-border transactions as interlinking solution finds more use cases -swift.com

The brave, new world of banking and finance appears to have arrived. Swift has created and tested a platform that will allow governments and institutions alike to conduct commerce with one another in a central bank digital currency (CBDC). This happens at a cost to our personal liberties as well as our financial privacy.

Swift today announced the findings of the second phase of industry-wide sandbox testing on its central bank digital currency (CBDC) interlinking solution, with the results showing that its connector can enable financial institutions to carry out a wide range of financial transactions using CBDCs and other forms of digital tokens, easily incorporating them into their business practices.

In one of the largest known collaborations on CBDCs, 38 institutions - including central and commercial banks as well as market infrastructures - took part in experiments which found that Swift’s solution has the potential to simplify and speed up trade flows, unlock growth in tokenised securities markets, and enable efficient FX settlement – all while allowing financial institutions to continue to make use of their existing infrastructure.

Interoperability is critical to Swift’s strategy for instant and frictionless transactions. The cooperative has focused its innovation agenda on interoperability between digital currencies and tokenised assets to overcome the potential risk of fragmentation, caused by the development of digital currencies on different technologies and with different standards and protocols. Swift’s solution has already been shown to enable cross-border transfers and connect CBDCs on different networks with each other, as well as with fiat currencies. READ MORE

Gold $2,600 - Daily Reckoning

Gold continues to make its climb this year, garnering more and more interest by the day. This most recent forecast is calling for $2,600 gold, but at what cost? A major area of concern is the US, our government and the ocean of unmanageable debt we appear to be drowning in.

by Greg Guenthner

The Senate quietly passed a $1.2 trillion funding package on Saturday morning to avert a partial government shutdown.

Just days earlier, Jerome Powell and the Fed soothed jittery investors, declaring that the Fed still intends to cut rates before the end of the year.

Meanwhile, you might have noticed gold and Bitcoin consolidating near their respective all-time highs.

Coincidence?

Probably not.

While you might consider the sharp moves higher in both assets to be no-brainers considering recent events, gold’s resilience in the face of numerous rally-busting pressures is where I want to focus our attention. Crypto and its mind bending rallies might have hogged a majority of the attention recently. But there’s something special brewing in precious metals right now, even though most investors aren’t paying close attention to the sector.

Today, I want you to briefly forget about the stocks-only-go-up rally, the artificial intelligence boom, and the roaring crypto market.

Sure, these are all important market themes. But I want to take a break from the endless noise to dig into what’s happening with gold and other metals right now – and how you should position your portfolio to profit from the next major leg higher. READ MORE

Almost 10,000 U.S. Banks Have Disappeared Since 1985, Leaving 4 Mega Banks Controlling 39 Percent of Bank Assets -Wall Street on Parade

Banking problems - along with bank closures - have become an all too familiar story these days. There have been nearly 10,000 closures since 1985. The real story is that this means there are now just four mega banks controlling over 39% of all assets. That's a very high concentration of banking power in the hands of just a few.

By Pam Martens and Russ Martens

According to Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation (FDIC) data, there were 14,417 federally-insured banking institutions in the U.S. in 1985. As of December 31, 2023, the FDIC reports there are only 4,587 remaining. The vast majority of the 9,830 banks that have disappeared since 1985 did not fail – they were merged with other banks.

Today, just four banks control $9.3 trillion in consolidated bank assets or 39 percent of all bank assets. Those four banks are JPMorgan Chase with $3.395 trillion in consolidated assets; Bank of America with $2.540 trillion; Wells Fargo with $1.7 trillion; and Citigroup’s Citibank with $1.685 trillion. (All asset figures are as of December 31, 2023 and come from the Federal Reserve’s statistical release of the largest banks.)

The political clout of these mega banks is such that one of them, JPMorgan Chase, has been allowed to commit a string of felonies and audacious crimes since 2011; get deferred-prosecution agreements and non-prosecution agreements from the Justice Department; assist the notorious sex-trafficker Jeffrey Epstein for a decade with the hard cash needed to keep himself and his pals supplied with underage girls; and still keep the same Chairman and CEO, Jamie Dimon, at the helm of the bank. READ MORE

RealMoneyBlog - Free daily/weekly email

3.25.24 - BRICS ‘Ready To Work’ To Ditch US Dollar

Gold last traded at $2,172 an ounce. Silver at $24.66 an ounce.

EDITOR'S NOTE: What started off as a bad dream is possibly turning into an absolute nightmare, as it relates to the US dollar. Not only has the list of participants been growing, but there is an active and public effort to ditch the dollar.

BRICS ‘Ready To Work’ With All Countries To Ditch US Dollar -Watcher Guru

by Vinod Dsouza

BRICS member Russia is pushing the de-dollarization initiative in Africa urging nations to trade in local currencies and not the US dollar. Russia’s President Vladimir Putin vigorously called for African countries to start using local currencies for trade, including the Russian Ruble.

Putin explained that Russia is “ready to work” with African countries to help them shift away from the US dollar. He added that BRICS can help Africa build its financial infrastructure by connecting its global banking system to local currencies. The Russian President stressed that cross-border transactions without the US dollar are beneficial to Africa.

The BRICS alliance is convincing developing countries around the world to stop relying on the US dollar for trade. A handful of countries believe that BRICS has the power to usher the world into a new financial era. Read here to know how many sectors in the US will be affected if BRICS ditches the dollar trade. READ MORE

RealMoneyBlog - Free daily/weekly email

3.22.24 - Gold Always Delivers

Gold last traded at $2,165 an ounce. Silver at $24.68 an ounce.

EDITOR'S NOTE: Gold is in the news once again due to ongoing global turmoil and the increasing shakiness of US markets; but here is something that those partial to the yellow metal have always known, gold can weather any storm. It's beloved by individual investors all the way up to sovereign nations because of its stability, scarcity and reliability. There is a reason central banks continue to gobble up as much gold as they can get their hands on.

Gold Delivered 25% Profits Year-On-Year For 25 Years - Watcher Guru

by Vinod Dsouza

source: Watcher Guru

Now let’s walk back 25 years and look at how gold prices fared over the last two and a half decades. It is been relentlessly pumping profits to investors who took an entry position for the long term. In this article, we will highlight how much profits gold delivered to investors from 1999 to 2024.

The average price of gold was $278 per ounce in 1999 after it recovered from its all-time low of $252 the same year. The price of gold breached the $2,200 mark this week and is attracting heavy bullish sentiments in the charts. Gold touched $2,208 this week after the US dollar dipped post the Feds FOMC meeting on Wednesday. The profits in gold now range from $278 to $2,208.

If you invested $10,000 in gold in 1999 at its $278 average price, you could get to accumulate 36 ounces. Fast-forward to 2024, gold prices are hovering around the $2,200 mark this week. Even when gold touched a high of $2,208, the $10,000 investment could have turned into $79,400 in profits. READ MORE

RealMoneyBlog - Free daily/weekly email

3.21.24 - Gold's rally far from over

Gold last traded at $2,181 an ounce. Silver at $24.75 an ounce.

EDITOR'S NOTE: With central banks continuing their gold buying frenzy and the expectation that rates will be cut multiple times this year, gold will continue to be the top choice for those seeking safe haven, top-performing assets in 2024.

Gold prices have been hitting record highs — here’s why the rally is far from over -CNBC

by Lee Ying Shan

The rally in gold continues with prices hitting an all-time high on Thursday — and there’s room for it to rise more as central banks continue to purchase bullion in record amounts.

Prices could rise to $2,300 per ounce in the second half of 2024, especially against the backdrop of expectations that the U.S. Federal Reserve could cut rates in the second half of 2024, Aakash Doshi, Citi’s North America head of commodities research, told CNBC. Gold is currently trading at $2,203.

Gold prices tend to share an inverse relationship with interest rates. As interest rates dip, gold becomes more appealing compared to fixed-income assets such as bonds, which would yield weaker returns in a low-interest-rate environment.

Macquarie has also forecast gold prices to notch new highs in the second half of the year. While acknowledging that physical purchases of gold have given prices a lift, Macquarie’s strategists attributed the recent $100 spike in prices to “significant futures buying” in their note dated March 7.

“Central banks, who have bought historic levels of gold over the past two years, continue to be strong buyers in 2024 as well,” World Gold Council Global Head of Central Banks Shaokai Fan said.

These purchases have strengthened gold prices despite high interest rates and a strong dollar, market watchers told CNBC. READ MORE

RealMoneyBlog - Free daily/weekly email

3.20.24 - ‘Worrying’ Metric Shows Massive Inflation Spike

Gold last traded at $2,208 an ounce. Silver at $25.66 an ounce.

The Great Cashout—Jeff Bezos, Leon Black, Jamie Dimon, and the Walton family have now sold a combined $11 billion in company stock this month— some for the first time ever - Fortune

More and more billionaires are selling their own company stock. Does this point to a growing lack of confidence the financial elite have in our markets? Could this be a sign of what they expect to come or is there something else taking place behind the scenes?

by Amanda Gerut

High-profile CEOs, founders, and heirs are selling stock by the bucketload in the companies that made them billionaires. For nearly the entire bunch, shares prices are trading near all-time-highs.

Jeff Bezos sold Amazon shares worth $8.5 billion in multiple transactions this month. Meanwhile, Jamie Dimon, CEO and chairman of JPMorgan Chase, sold $150 million in stock last week, his first cashing out since taking the top job at the bank 18 years ago. Around the same time, Leon Black, co-founder and former CEO of Apollo Global Management, shed $172.8 million in stock—also a first-ever stock sale.

In dozens of trades since the beginning of February, Mark Zuckerberg unloaded about 1.4 million shares of Meta stock worth roughly $638 million, according to an analysis from insider stock sales data firm Verity. This latest batch of sales came after previously culling 588,200 shares in November, 688,400 in December, and 447,200 in January. He sold nearly $600 million in the three months leading up to February and his proceeds from combined sales during the past four months have reached $1.2 billion.

Similarly, the trust for the Walton family, heirs to Walmart’s founder, sold $1.5 billion in Walmart stock this month. The family owns about 45% of Walmart’s shares, according to Bloomberg. READ MORE

‘Worrying’ Metric Shows Massive Inflation Spike Hammered US, Far Higher Than Reported: Former Treasury Secretary Larry Summers -Daily Hodl

We are all living in the reality of today's inflation; not the contrived numbers we've been given over the last several months. The title of this article refers to it as "worrying", but I think a more appropriate term might be 'devastating'.

by Alex Richardson

Former U.S. Treasury Secretary Lawrence Summers says an old school method of tracking inflation may reveal the real amount of economic pain that Americans have had to endure.

Summers has co-authored and released a new paper exploring the effect of high interest rates on the American consumer.

The paper, in part, aims to paint an alternate and more accurate view of inflation by incorporating economist Arthur Okun’s pre-1983 system of measuring inflation, which took into account personal interest rates and housing financing costs.

After 1983, those metrics were taken out of the consumer price index (CPI), which Summers and the authors of the paper argue may be giving an inaccurate portrayal of inflation in the US.

Using the pre-1983 method of measuring inflation, the report says that in November of 2022, CPI spiked by about 18% – contrary to the official 4.1% number determined by the government.

The new numbers paint a darker picture of the inflation that Americans are dealing with to this day, with the report stating the pre-1983 measure offers a “more worrying picture of inflation in the current moment than the official inflation numbers.” READ MORE

56% of Americans can’t afford a $1,000 emergency expense: We are ‘living in a paycheck-to-paycheck nation,’ money expert says -CNBC

Many American families are either on the verge of financial failure or one unexpected expense away from it. The question remains, is a solution to this crisis anywhere in sight?

by Annie Probert

A majority of Americans say they can’t afford a $1,000 emergency expense, a recent report from Bankrate finds.

Only 44% of Americans surveyed said they could use their savings to pay for an unexpected expense, instead opting to put it on a credit card or borrow cash from family or friends.

“The reality is that we are, unfortunately, essentially living in a paycheck-to-paycheck nation,” Bankrate senior economic analyst Mark Hamrick tells CNBC Make It. “We’re a consumer-based society where people are implored on a constant basis to spend their money, and the messaging is not nearly as strong with respect to saving your money.”

Unexpected economic events that occurred in quick succession over the past five years, from the fallout over the pandemic to high inflation, have shocked the personal finances of many Americans, says Hamrick.

“It’s quite remarkable in the current environment that even with low unemployment and a job market that has been both robust and resilient in recent years, that we still have this remarkably low percentage of Americans who could pay this emergency expense,” he adds. READ MORE

RealMoneyBlog - Free daily/weekly email

3.19.24 - A New Buy Signal for Gold

Gold last traded at $2,158 an ounce. Silver at $24.92 an ounce.

EDITOR'S NOTE: 2024 has already presented many geopolitical and economic reasons for hedging your portfolio with gold; but for those of you who like to base your investment moves on the technical aspects of any given asset market, here is your sign.

A New Buy Signal for Gold - Barron's

by Andrew Addison

Gold’s rally isn’t over yet.

In the Oct. 17, 2023, issue of the Institutional View, I highlighted the metal’s powerful bullish reversal from its support level of $1811 an ounce. After gold hurdled $1940 without breaking below $1900, my work generated a Buy signal for the metal.

Then, in the Dec. 29 issue of the Institutional View, I downgraded bullion to a Neutral $2065, and I recommended that clients sell and take profits. Why? Because gold reached $2135 intraweek but was unable to close the week above $2100.

During the last week of February, gold’s technicals improved markedly when it posted a bullish reversal—a higher high than the prior day, a lower low than the prior day, and a close above the prior day’s high—off its 50-day moving average (see chart above). With its close above $2041 on Feb. 29 (it ended the day at $2046), gold hurdled the downtrend from $2135, generating a Buy signal at $2046, as reported in the Feb. 29 Institutional View.

The weekly chart above shows that gold broke out of a four-year rounding base to begin a new bull market. Closing above $2220, it would accelerate and climb quickly to $2400.

It’s the monthly chart above that’s the most exciting. Within a 12-year base, gold formed successively higher and shorter high-level consolidations at the top of the base. This illustrates that selling pressure continues to weaken as buyers begin to take control. Once gold has a monthly close above $2200, then my work would generate upside projections of $3600 to $4000. VIEW CHARTS

RealMoneyBlog - Free daily/weekly email

3.18.24 - BRICS: new currency update

EDITOR'S NOTE: If you've been wondering what the BRICS nations have been up to lately, the answer is simple...they've been buying gold. They now represent the most active buyers of the precious metal as they look to distance themselves from the debt-laden dollar.

BRICS Provides Update On The New Currency - watcher.guru

by Vinod Dsouza

BRICS is looking at creating a new currency in the global markets to settle international trade among member countries. The alliance wants to end dependency on the US dollar and give prominence to the soon-to-be-released currency. The bloc of nine countries wants their native currencies to strengthen as keeping the US dollar in reserve poses a risk to their growth.

The uncontrolled $34.4 trillion debt is making developing countries worried as it could leave a negative impact on their economies. Central Banks are now accumulating gold instead of the US dollar to stay away from the USD currency’s debt. For the uninitiated, BRICS countries are the largest buyers of gold accumulating tonnes of the precious metal, reported World Gold Council.

Brazilian Sherpa Mauricio Lyrio gave an update about the happenings of the BRICS currency. The Sherpa confirmed that BRICS continues working on a common currency and the topic will be discussed at the next summit. Lyrio explained that the alliance is working towards the advancement of the common currency and payment system.

“We are working on that (new currency),” Lyrio said. He added, “The countries are discussing it under the Russian presidency, and it’s one of the topics discussed during this presidency”.

Moreover, if BRICS launches a new currency or common payment system, the US dollar will be the hardest hit. Developing countries will slowly end reliance on the US dollar and opt for the new payment system. READ MORE

RealMoneyBlog - Free daily/weekly email

3.15.24 - JPMorgan’s Top Pick in Commodities

Gold last traded at $2,159 an ounce. Silver at $25.25 an ounce.

EDITOR'S NOTE: It would seem as though gold is becoming the safe and preferred investment choice of 2024. JPMorgan sees the price reaching $2,500 an ounce. The time to buy is right now!

Gold Is JPMorgan’s Top Pick in Commodities With Price Eyeing $2,500 -Bloomberg

by Yvonne Yue Li and Tope Alake

Gold is the No. 1 pick in commodities markets for JPMorgan Chase & Co. and the price has the potential to reach $2,500 an ounce this year, according to the bank’s global head of commodities research.

“We believe that $2,500 is a possibility” after bullion reached an all-time high of $2,195.15 on Friday, Natasha Kaneva said during a Bloomberg TV interview. “Because the market tends to get overexcited.”

To achieve that price target, “we need a confirmation from continued moderation in the inflation and in the jobs numbers as well and the confirmations that the Fed indeed is cutting,” said Kaneva.

The Fed’s long-anticipated pivot to looser monetary policy is widely expected to boost gold’s appeal compared with yield-bearing assets like bonds. Policymakers have said they needed to see more evidence that inflation is headed toward its 2% target before lowering borrowing costs. READ MORE

RealMoneyBlog - Free daily/weekly email

3.14.24 - The U.S. Banks With the Highest Exposure

Gold last traded at $2,162 an ounce. Silver at $24.81 an ounce.

EDITOR'S NOTE: There is approximately $5.7 trillion in outstanding commercial real estate debt, and some banks have a higher concentration of commercial loans on their balance sheet than others. This graphic breaks down the most at-risk banks if a commercial real state collapse comes to pass.

The U.S. Banks With the Highest Exposure to Commercial Real Estate -Visual Capitalist

By Niccolo Conte

Article/Editing: Dorothy Neufeld

Graphics/Design: Sam Parker

(click to expand)

The commercial property sector, which includes office, retail, healthcare, and multi-family properties, has faced mounting pressures amid high interest rates and lower occupancy levels. Given these headwinds, it poses the risk of higher defaults and steep loan losses in a sector that has not fully recovered since the collapse of Silicon Valley Bank last year.

This graphic shows the U.S. banks with the highest exposure to the commercial real estate sector, based on analysis from UBS. VIEW GRAPHIC

RealMoneyBlog - Free daily/weekly email

3.13.24 - BRICS advancing at rapid pace

Gold last traded at $2,175 an ounce. Silver at $25.04 an ounce.

US national debt tracker for March 12, 2024: See what American taxpayers (you) owe in real time -Fox Business

Although we live in the greatest country in the world, I find this headline unsettling. Working hard, staying out of debt, and paying taxes is our responsibility as citizens. When you see what we "owe" because of decision made for us by politicians and their misspending, it becomes infuriating.

by Megan Henney

The U.S. national debt is climbing at an astronomical pace and has shown no signs of slowing down despite the heightened scrutiny on government spending.

The national debt — which measures what the U.S. owes its creditors — increased to $34,497,203,823,900.22 as of Tuesday afternoon, according to the latest numbers published by the Treasury Department. That is up about $25 billion from the $34,471,482,665,578.20 figure reported the previous day.

By comparison, just four decades ago, the national debt hovered around $907 billion.

The outlook for the federal debt level is bleak, with economists increasingly sounding the alarm over the torrid pace of spending by Congress and the White House.

The latest findings from the Congressional Budget Office indicate that the national debt will grow to an astonishing $54 trillion in the next decade, the result of an aging population and fishing federal health care costs. Higher interest rates are also compounding the pain of higher debt. READ MORE

US, European Union React to BRICS Rapid Growth -watcher.guru

We have been warning about the impact of BRICS for some time now. The US has addressed the progression of BRICS where it can and the likely economic fallout their advancement represents. It would seem BRICS is moving along so quickly, there will be no catching up.

by Michael Grullon

The BRICS bloc is ready to continue its expansion in 2024. Successfully inducting multiple new nations in January, the bloc is expected to invite more countries to join sometime this year. With more countries showing interest in BRICS and its missions, the United States and the European Union are facing a new developing threat.

BRICS is advancing at a rapid pace in its de-dollarization efforts by cutting ties with the US dollar. The new members have begun settling trade in local currencies by ending dependency on the greenback. Furthermore, India, China, Russia, and the UAE have started using their respective local currencies, reducing their reliance on the US dollar.

Multiple political/economic voices in the United have shared their concerns about the future of BRICS and its impact on the United States. As BRICS continues to grow, some are sure that its growth will pose an immediate threat.

US Politician Marco Rubio shared a warning to the US recently about BRICS, saying that its growth might interfere with the ability to exert sanctions on other nations. “If current trends continue, it will become harder and harder for the United States to prevent international violence and oppression through sanctions,” Rubio wrote in a recent op-ed article/open letter. READ MORE

Leading Tech Company Is Now Cutting A Whopping 8,000 Jobs -Frank Nez

Big Blue is yet another company replacing jobs with AI, along with many other tech firms. Greater efficiency perhaps, but at what cost for American families?

A leading tech company is now cutting a whopping 8,000 jobs, part of a plan to increase its AI output, sources confirm.

IBM told employees on Tuesday in its marketing and communications division that it is slashing the size of its staff, according to a person with knowledge of the matter.

Jonathan Adashek, IBM’s chief communications officer, made the announcement in a roughly seven-minute meeting with staffers in the unit, said the person, who asked not to be named because the news hasn’t been made public, reports CNBC.

In December, IBM CEO Arvind Krishna told CNBC that the company was “massively upskilling all of our employees on AI,” after it announced a plan in August to replace nearly 8,000 jobs with AI.

IBM said on its earnings call in January of last year that it was cutting 3,900 positions.

“In 4Q earnings earlier this year, IBM disclosed a workforce rebalancing charge that would represent a very low single digit percentage of IBM’s global workforce, and we expect to exit 2024 at roughly the same level of employment as we entered with,” IBM told CNBC in a statement. READ MORE

RealMoneyBlog - Free daily/weekly email

3.12.24 - $15,000 Gold?

Gold last traded at $2,158 an ounce. Silver at $24.14 an ounce.

EDITOR'S NOTE: Is it really possible for gold to hit a price target of $15,000 an ounce? Mr. Rickards makes the case here (click the link below to read his theory). But even if it comes nowhere close, gold still has a ton of upside potential between its current price of $2158 (today's price) and $15k. The fundamentals are in place for a major breakout this year, especially given the many nations actively avoiding the dollar.

Gold’s Got the Midas Touch Back - Daily Reckoning

by James Rickards

After two years of trading in a 20% range between $1,600 and $2,000 per ounce, gold finally broke out to the upside, closing at a new all-time high of $2,126 per ounce on March 4.

Better yet, if you’re a gold investor, gold has held its ground around $2,100 per ounce since breaking that ceiling (gold’s trading at around $2,187 today).

The price is volatile, but gold broke even higher on March 5 when it hit $2,140 on an intra-day basis. Before getting too euphoric, gold investors should recall that the $800 per ounce record set in January 1980 during borderline hyperinflation would be $3,200 per ounce in today’s dollars if adjusted for inflation.

That can be a splash of cold water in the face. On the other hand, it’s highly encouraging. If gold is in a new bull market, $3,200 per ounce looks more like a price target than an insurmountable hurdle.

But I continually remind gold investors, whether in bullion or mining shares, not to get too euphoric when gold rallies and not to get too depressed when the dollar price retreats. Gold is still the best form of money and proves valuable to investors over time.

The bigger questions are: What are the factors driving gold higher, and will they continue the trend? READ MORE

RealMoneyBlog - Free daily/weekly email

3.11.24 - Central Banks Boost Gold Reserves

Gold last traded at $2,184 an ounce. Silver at $24.49 an ounce.

EDITOR'S NOTE: This headline says it all. The rest of the world sees our economy for what it really is; despite what DC is feeding to the rest of us. Gold is on the move and given the current state of the domestic and global economy, it's likely heading far higher. Call us today to secure your position.

Central Banks Boost Gold Reserves to Diversify from the Dollar -Yahoo! Finance

Authored by Simon White, Bloomberg macro strategist

Powell might not be overly worried about inflation - with his recent comments reiterating the Federal Reserve is on track to cut rates this year - but other central banks are not so relaxed. Gold’s new high signals global central banks are likely accumulating the precious metal in an effort to diversify away from the dollar, as persistently large fiscal deficits threaten to further erode its real value and lead to more inflation.

Gold’s move in recent days has been broad as well as pronounced (as well as hinted at by low gold vol), with the precious metal making 50-year highs versus three-quarters of major DM and EM currencies. The biggest holdings of gold after jewellery are for private investment - ETFs, bars and coins - followed by central banks’ official reserve holdings.

In recent years the swing buyers have been ETFs, which hold about 2,500 tonnes of gold. But ETF holdings have been falling even as the dollar price of gold has been rising.

The dollar has been stable and real yields (which anyway have a non-linear relationship with gold) are higher over the last three months. The bulk of seasonal buying, for instance Diwali in India, is likely behind us. Further, silver has not participated in the rise. It’s therefore a reasonable supposition the official sector, i.e. central banks, has been a significant driver of gold’s recent ascent to new highs. READ MORE

RealMoneyBlog - Free daily/weekly email

3.8.24 - The 5 Charts The FDIC Doesn't Want You to See

Gold last traded at $2,177 an ounce. Silver at $24.32 an ounce.

EDITOR'S NOTE: Many of our clients have shared their concerns over the solvency of our banks as of late. With Chairman Powell admitting Thursday that he expects to see more banks fail due to their exposure to the commercial real estate sector, it seems those concerns are well founded. The banks have been playing fast and loose with the rules for a while now and it looks like that behavior is finally going to catch up with them. Will the taxpayers once again be footing the bill for their irresponsibility?

These Are The 5 Charts The FDIC Does Not Want You Paying Attention To -Zero Hedge

by Tyler Durden

Washington's "Problem Bank List" rose again last quarter, capping off a year when US lenders struggled to cope with higher interest rates and more overdue loans for commercial buildings and credit cards.

The FDIC's confidential tally of lenders with with financial, operational or managerial weaknesses had grown by eight banks to 52, representing 1.1% of the institutions it oversees. The total assets held by those firms increased by $12.8 billion last quarter to $66.3 billion.

Although the number of firms on the FDIC’s list remains relatively low compared with historical highs, it continues an increasing trend that started early last year.

Always-friendly Senator Liz Warren lambasted Fed Chair Jay Powell today, claiming that “greedy bank executives” were behind bank failures, and the Fed needs to do its job of regulating those institutions.

Powell responded by saying they’ve reached out to banks with high levels of uninsured deposits and high levels of office real estate debt, adding that The Fed is examining whether they are “being truthful” with themselves.

With regard to being "truthful", as we detailed previously, many of the loans on banks' books are dramatically mispriced (over-valued):

"The worry now is that such firesales will set an example for other major investors seeking a way out of the turmoil too, forcing a wholesale crash in the Manhattan real estate market which until now had managed to avoid real price discovery."

Warren responds by exclaiming that Powell has "gone weak-kneed" on bank regulation, concluding with this shot across the bow:

“the American people need a leader at the Fed who has the courage to stand up to these banks.” READ MORE AND VIEW ALL CHARTS

RealMoneyBlog - Free daily/weekly email

3.7.24 - BofA warns of dollar collapse

Gold last traded at $2,158 an ounce. Silver at $24.35 an ounce.

EDITOR'S NOTE: The big banks are no longer remaining silent on the fate of the US Dollar. Is the death of the buck imminent? The Fed certainly isn't doing anything to strengthen it. Will this give BRICS even more power to dethrone King Greenback?

BRICS: Bank of America Issues Warning of a US Dollar Collapse -watcher.guru

by Vinod Dsouza

The US national debt is now growing by $1 trillion every 100 days since 2023. The uncontrolled debt could lead to a financial disaster wreaking havoc not only in the US but across the world. BRICS and other developing countries are worried that a US dollar debt could make their native economies crash. Keeping the US dollar in reserves is now seen as a threat that could undo years of financial stability.

The US dollar national debt now touched a new high of $34.4 trillion and is barely under control. Elected representatives at Capitol Hill and officials from the Federal Reserve are unable to tame the ever-growing debt.

Amid the economic turbulence, Bank of America has issued a warning about a possible US dollar collapse. Moreover, this allows BRICS to spread the de-dollarization initiative across the world.

BRICS: Growing Debt Risks Exposure of a US Dollar Collapse, Warns Bank of America

Bank of America warned in the latest piece that the US dollar and economy face a “blowout year” in 2024. The growing national debt is the main reason why the US economy could be poised to head south. “The US national debt is rising by $1 trillion every 100 days,” Michael Hartnett, Chief Strategist of Bank of America wrote.

Hartnett warned that the collapse of the US dollar is imminent if the debt grows out of control this year. “This doesn’t end well,” wrote Genevieve Roch-Decter, a former Asset Manager at the Grit Capital. Also, BRICS is now waiting for a possible US dollar decline and could advance with a new currency in the global market. READ MORE

RealMoneyBlog - Free daily/weekly email

3.6.24 - $1 Trillion in 100 Days!

Gold last traded at $2,148 an ounce. Silver at $24.17 an ounce.

Top real estate CEO warns ‘500 or more’ banks will either fail or be consolidated over the next two years -Yahoo! Finance

The talking heads at the Fed want us to believe our banking woes are behind us, but our clients continue to share their concerns that we've only seen the beginning. More and more experts in this sector are sounding an alarm that the coming commercial real estate correction will be devastating for banks. We tend to agree.

by Will Daniel

Ever since four regional banks holding a combined $532 billion in assets—headlined by Silicon Valley Bank—failed in March 2023, regional banks have been under scrutiny from regulators. And given the commercial real estate (CRE) industry’s issues, a key focus has been on banks with the most exposure to the volatile sector.

In an upcoming white paper seen exclusively by Fortune, RXR CEO Scott Rechler described how regional banks will face a “slow-moving train wreck” as waves of commercial real estate loans mature over the next few years. Rechler has faith that many commercial real estate owners, operators, and lenders will figure out a way to overcome the challenges facing them, but he’s more skeptical about regional banks. “I think there's going to be…500 or more fewer banks in the U.S. over the next two years,” he said. “I'm not saying they're all going to fail, but they're going to be forced into consolidation if they don't fail.”

“They don't have a business model that's going to enable them to stand alone, and be competitive, and retain deposits and service customers the way that they have,” he added.

Regulators’ fears about regional banks with exposure to CRE aren’t unfounded, New York Community Bancorp (NYCB) being the prime example. Shares of NYCB have plummeted roughly 78% from their July 2023 peak due to concerns over the bank’s CRE exposure. The pain accelerated after NYCB reported a surprise fourth-quarter loss and slashed its dividend on Jan. 31, 2024, because it had to put away more money to cover its CRE holdings.

For Rechler, regional banks’ CRE exposure could even end up being a “systemic issue.” READ MORE

$1 Trillion in 100 Days! -Daily Reckoning

What used to take 205 years, now takes 100 days! This sounds like an innovation in efficiency, but sadly, it's just the astounding growth rate of the US debt. Can we continue on this trajectory? It seems impossible, but when have you ever known the government to slow down spending?

by Brian Maher

How does a man descend into bankruptcy?

Gradually — then suddenly — in Mr. Hemingway’s famous telling.

The United States government has passed beyond bankruptcy’s gradual phase.

It has entered bankruptcy’s sudden phase.

Mr. Michael Hartnett, Bank of America’s chief strategist:

“The U.S. national debt is rising by $1 trillion every 100 days.”

United States debt first scaled $1 trillion 205 years after its inception. And today?

The work of 205 years presently reduces to 100 days.

$1 trillion every 100 days? Impossible — but there you have it: Debt Goes Exponential

And so today a pearl of sorrow courses down our crimson cheek… a mournful tear upon the ashes of the nation’s finances.

We fear its debt is assuming the hellacious form of a parabola.

That is, the business begins to assume an exponential aspect.

If only the nation’s gross domestic product could maintain pace with its parabolic and exponential debt.

It cannot… alas. READ MORE

As gold scales all-time highs, Wall Street analysts say it has even further to go

Gold is headed higher and it's not stopping soon. As we kick off a very uncertain year, gold should shine until at least November, and likely even longer based on who is elected.

by Jenni Reid

Gold prices pushed higher Tuesday after futures pricing for the precious metal notched fresh records in the previous two sessions — with analysts seeing strength lasting at least into the second half of the year.

The gold contract for April on Monday closed above $2,100 per ounce for the first time, and was up 0.37% at $2,134.2 at 1:15 p.m. in London. Spot gold was trading 0.7% higher at $2,129, though market-watchers note that in real terms, adjusted for inflation, gold is well below past peaks.

In a Monday note, analysts at Citi described themselves as “medium-term bullion bulls,” calling a 25% probability of gold averaging a record $2,300 per ounce in the second half. Their base case remains $2,150, and they reiterated a “wildcard” call for trade reaching $3,000 over the next 12 to 16 months.

Citi describes gold as a developed market “recession hedge,” and increasingly see tailwinds from uncertainty around the U.S. election in November.

Analysts at Berenberg also noted Monday that a Donald Trump victory in the election would provide a “major positive for gold,” with further support for the safe-haven asset from volatility around the ongoing wars in Ukraine and Gaza. READ MORE

RealMoneyBlog - Free daily/weekly email

3.5.24 - Gold rises to highest level ever

Gold last traded at $2,127 an ounce. Silver at $23.67 an ounce.

EDITOR'S NOTE: At the end of 2023, many analysts were predicting a breakout year for gold in 2024. So far, those predictions have been spot on. With gold moving past $2,100 an ounce in early March and the economy continuing to teeter, the forecasts of gold hitting $3,000 an ounce by year's end are within reach.

Gold rises above $2,100 to highest level ever as traders bet on interest rate cuts -CNBC

by Spencer Kimball

Gold futures settled at the highest level ever on Monday as traders bet the Federal Reserve will start cutting interest rates in the second half of the year.

The gold contract for April gained $30.60, or 1.46%, to settle at $2,126.30 per ounce, the highest level dating back to the contract’s creation in 1974.

It is the second consecutive trading session in a row in which gold has settled at a record, with the April contract closing at an all-time high of $2,095.70 on Friday.

The VanEck Gold Miners ETF (GDX) closed higher by 4.3% and for its third consecutive day of gains. It’s also trading above the 50-day moving average of $28.295 for the first time since Jan.12.

When adjusted for inflation, gold set an all-time high of about $3,200 in 1980, according to Peter Boockvar, chief investment officer at Bleakley Financial Group.

“We’re still a ways away, which then also points to the potential upside,” said Boockvar, who thinks gold will also test the inflation-adjusted record.

Gold has performed well despite high interest rates and a strong dollar, he said. This is largely due to the world’s central banks buying an enormous amount of gold after the U.S. and European Union confiscated $300 billion of Russia’s foreign exchange reserves in the wake of Moscow’s invasion of Ukraine, he said. READ MORE

RealMoneyBlog - Free daily/weekly email

3.4.24 - Another Banking Crisis?

Gold last traded at $2,114 an ounce. Silver at $23.89 an ounce.

EDITOR'S NOTE: Could the US banking system be on the brink ... again? According to former IMF official Desmond Lachman, the answer is yes. He asserts the Fed is to blame and their latest actions - or inactions - will likely result in a hard landing for our already-battered economy.

America on Eve of Banking Crisis, Warns Ex-IMF Official, With Hundreds of Lenders at Risk of Failure -The Daily Hodl

by Alex Richardson

A former IMF official believes the U.S. Federal Reserve has pushed America to the brink of another banking crisis.

Desmond Lachman, who was deputy director in the International Monetary Fund’s (IMF) Policy Development and Review Department, says in a new blog post for public policy think tank The American Enterprise Institute (AEI) that Fed Chair Jerome Powell is “inviting a banking crisis.”

With banks already under pressure, Lachman says the Fed is making matters worse by keeping monetary policy tight, and liquidity thin.

The ex-IMF official says it’s a mistake that’s significantly raised the odds of a hard landing for the US economy while pushing lenders to the eve of a fresh banking crisis.

“In 2021, the Fed chose to ignore the markedly expansionary fiscal policy stance when it kept flooding the market with liquidity. The net result was a surge in inflation by June 2022 to a multi-decade high of over 9%.

Today, it seems to be making the opposite mistake of keeping monetary policy tight on the eve of a banking crisis at home and a weakening economic situation abroad. Unfortunately, this raises the risk of a hard economic landing within the next year or so.”

Lachman warns that commercial real estate, which makes up a major portion of US banks’ loan portfolios, is a clear Achilles heel for the industry that could result in the failure of around 385 small and medium-sized banks. READ MORE

RealMoneyBlog - Free daily/weekly email

3.1.24 - Just How BIG Is This Bubble?

Gold last traded at $2,083 an ounce. Silver at $23.16 an ounce.

EDITOR'S NOTE: The stock market seems capable of anything these days and it has certainly made many people very wealthy. However, it's hard to ignore all of the warning signs that are appearing as of late. Just one of which being The Great Cashout: high-profile CEOs, founders, and heirs are selling their stocks in droves, some for the first time.

Just How BIG Is This Bubble? -Daily Reckoning

by Brian Maher

Never before have so many… owed so much… to so few.

We refer not to Mr. Churchill’s hosannas to the Royal Air Force — concerning 1940’s Battle of Britain.

We refer instead to the 2024 Battle of Bulls and Bears… to the stock market.

Never have so many investors owed so much of their money to so few stocks.

That is because a mere spoonful of stocks are hauling stocks to record heights.

These stocks are: Nvidia. Alphabet. Amazon. Apple. Meta. Microsoft. And Tesla — collectively, the “Magnificent Seven.”

These sweethearts boast a combined market capitalization of $12 trillion.

That is the combined market capitalization of the next 42 leaders of the S&P 500.

That is, a mere seven stocks haul the equal load of the next 42.

Investors have piled into them and fattened upon them.

Investors have also inflated a gorgeous bubble.

Bubble: “a good or fortunate situation that is isolated from reality or unlikely to last.”

Precisely how gorgeous is this bubble? READ MORE

RealMoneyBlog - Free daily/weekly email

2.29.24 - Bank account 'disappeared from the app'

Gold last traded at $2,044 an ounce. Silver at $22.67 an ounce.

EDITOR'S NOTE: AI software has been blamed for a variety of errors lately. In fact, one Canadian airline tried to deny responsibility for their own AI software's behavior claiming it was its own legal entity, over which they had no control. Is this story a case of overzealous but innocent fraud detection software or is it a testing ground for locking depositors - who spend in ways contrary to social standards - out of accounts? Will this be the new way banks and governments deny citizens access to their own money? You be the judge.

My Chase Bank account ‘disappeared from the app’ and I learned they closed it – now I can’t get my $19k back -The U.S. Sun

Customers speculating Chase account closures are pointing to things like the bank's size and its AI fraud detection software

by Erica Scalise

A CHASE Bank customer is alleging their account was closed for no reason and going in person to the bank didn't help.

Many members of Chase have shared stories on social media highlighting similar struggles and seeking the advice of fellow customers.

The story started when a Reddit user claimed that their account storing $19,000 was restricted after a friend tried to transfer them money via Zelle to pay for dinner.

Upon noticing the restriction, the user claimed they called to get access to their online account which had a credit card and a car loan linked to it.

Within a week, they claimed their checking account "disappeared from the app."

And upon calling to check the status of their remaining funds, an internal investigation was started, according to the customer who claimed to have used their account for "direct deposits and paying bills." READ MORE

RealMoneyBlog - Free daily/weekly email

2.28.24 - 'What happens in Venezuela, not New York'

Gold last traded at $2,033 an ounce. Silver at $22.43 an ounce.

Texas Senator Ted Cruz Launches New Legislation To Ban Central Bank Digital Currencies (CBDCs) -The Daily Hodl

As our long term readers know, we have been warning about the government's secret war on your cash for years. Lately, that war is not so secret. The government would love to be able to track every dime you spend; and be able to shut off your access to your money if they decide you are not spending it how they want you to.

Republican senator Ted Cruz is continuing to press for the US government to ban central bank digital currencies (CBDCs).

According to a new press release from Cruz (R-Texas), the Senator is introducing legislation to outright ban CBDCs.

According to the release, the legislation is a partisan effort between Sens. Bill Hagerty (R-Tenn.), Rick Scott (R-Fla.), Ted Budd (R-N.C.), and Mike Braun (R-Ind.).

Says Cruz ...

“The Biden administration salivates at the thought of infringing on our freedom and intruding on the privacy of citizens to surveil their personal spending habits, which is why Congress must clarify that the Federal Reserve has no authority to implement a CBDC. I’m proud to lead the fight in the Senate to restrict the Federal Reserve’s exploration of and attempt to introduce a CBDC to the American economy.”

The bill dubbed the CBDC Anti-Surveillance State Act, would prevent the federal government from issuing CBDCs either directly or through a third party. READ MORE

Kevin O'Leary calls out potential seizure of Trump's assets: ‘What happens in Venezuela, not New York’ -Fox Business

In the quest to take down Trump, some of his opponents don't seem to realize the greater consequences of their actions. This may seem like a victory for those who feel Trump deserves to be punished, but two separate victims of these actions are liberty and freedom. As is common in today's political landscape, the scorched earth campaign against Trump will come at a cost to the state of New York as industries leave the area and move their capital to safer states.

by Kendall Tietz

Investment guru Kevin O'Leary was sharply critical Monday on "Mornings with Maria" over the potential seizure of former President Trump's assets should he fail to pay the nine-figure fine in his civil fraud case, calling it akin to a situation in places like Venezuela.

The 2024 Republican frontrunner is currently on the hook for just over $354 million, with post-judgment interest accruing at nearly $112,000 per day. New York Attorney General Letitia James has vowed that if Trump fails to pay, the state will start seizing his assets.

As a businessman, investor and O'Leary Ventures Chairman, O'Leary said the move by the New York court has developers asking whether the fine penalty interest is commensurate with the act.

"Remember there is no money lost, there's no victim here, so essentially just under half a billion-dollar fine for a situation where no monies were lost and the harmed party, supposedly the banks, were fully paid back," he said. "We are wondering does this make sense, asking ourselves how long will it take for the appellate court to bring down to a what reasonable number might be, I have no idea what that is."

New York Judge Arthur Engoron ruled that Trump and the defendants were liable for "persistent and repeated fraud," "falsifying business records," "issuing false financial statements," "conspiracy to falsify false financial statements," "insurance fraud," and "conspiracy to commit insurance fraud." Trump's legal team has appealed the ruling.

In the meantime, while the case is being litigated, O'Leary said investors are not putting any new money into projects in New York, adding he is "very concerned" about the next step of seizing assets. READ MORE

Cereal For Dinner: As The Economy Implodes, The CEO Of Kellogg Is Trying To Convince Americans That Frosted Flakes And Froot Loops Are A Cheaper Alternative -The Economic Collapse

While the government is still trying to convince us that inflation is under control, households are turning to cereal for dinner to make ends meet. Sure, Gary Pilnick is also in the business of selling cereal, but he's seeing firsthand what consumers are buying to at least put something on the table for their families.

Would you eat Cheerios for dinner? What about Lucky Charms? Many years ago when I was a college student, I would often eat cereal instead of a normal meal in the evening. Needless to say, that wasn’t good for my health at all. But now “cereal for dinner” has become quite trendy. Food prices have soared in recent years and millions of Americans are trying to cut costs anywhere that they can. As the economy continues to implode and more consumers find themselves “under pressure”, the CEO of Kellogg thinks that he will be able to convince even more of us that choosing cereal for dinner is a great way to save money…

Gary Pilnick, CEO of WK Kellogg Co., told CNBC, “When we think about our consumer under pressure, … cereal … has always been quite affordable and it tends to be a great destination when consumers are under pressure.”

He said his company has been focusing on messaging “to reach the consumer where they are, so we’re advertising about cereal for dinner. If you think about the cost of cereal for a family versus what they might otherwise do that’s going to be much more affordable.

“The price of a bowl of cereal with milk and with fruit is less than a dollar so you can imagine where a consumer under pressure might find that to be a good place to go.”

Pilnick said when looking at company data, “breakfast cereal is the number one choice for in home consumption” with over 25% of cereal consumption being outside of breakfast. “Cereal for dinner is something that is probably more on trend now and we would expect to continue as that consumer is under pressure.” READ MORE

RealMoneyBlog - Free daily/weekly email

2.27.24 - Stock market increasingly 'casino-like'

Gold last traded at $2,030 an ounce. Silver at $22.45 an ounce.

EDITOR'S NOTE: There are two types of people in every market category: investors and speculators. Speculators may get rich quick, but their wealth can be vaporized just as rapidly. Investing for the long-term may not be the flashiest strategy but it is the most proven one. Mr. Buffett has always said that patience (and a balanced portfolio) is the path to greater wealth, and he would know. Long-term holds have a history of paying the greatest dividends.

Warren Buffett says the stock market is increasingly ‘casino-like’—and young investors need to remember this ‘one fact of financial life’ to avoid the mess - Fortune

by Will Daniel

Berkshire Hathaway CEO Warren Buffett shared a moving tribute to his fallen friend and right-hand man Charlie Munger in his annual shareholder letter over the weekend. The Oracle of Omaha lauded Munger as the “architect” of Berkshire’s success, eulogizing the “abominable no-man” by discussing some of his favorite whipping posts—including his comparison of the modern stock market to a casino.

“For whatever reasons, markets now exhibit far more casino-like behavior than they did when I was young,” Buffett wrote, adding that “though the stock market is massively larger than it was in our early years, today’s active participants are neither more emotionally stable nor better taught than when I was in school.”

Buffett’s words of caution were definitely a throwback to some of Munger’s favorite lines. Throughout his more than 75-year career, Munger argued that there were two types of people who buy shares in the stock market: investors and speculators. The investors—who are, above all, disciplined, hard-working, and thoughtful when buying assets—were always Munger’s people. But the speculators—those who seek nothing more than a quick buck without care for the intrinsic value of what they’re buying—well, Munger really didn’t like them much.

"They love gambling, and the trouble is, it's like taking heroin,” he said in an April 2022 interview with Berkshire Hathaway investment officer Todd Combs. “A certain percentage of people when they start just overdo it. It's that addictive. It's absolutely crazy, it's gone berserk. Civilization would have been a lot better without it." READ MORE

RealMoneyBlog - Free daily/weekly email

2.26.24 - America's ticking 'debt bomb'

Gold last traded at $2,031 an ounce. Silver at $22.52 an ounce.

EDITOR'S NOTE: America's out-of-control deficit spending is of concern to many, but those in the media tend to overlook this elephant in the room and instead praise the booming stock market. And yet, another billionaire believes this current trajectory is unsustainable. It's not hard to believe when it's projected that our interest payments on that debt will surpass defense and Medicare spending in 2024.

Billionaire Paul Tudor Jones warns of America's ticking ‘debt bomb’ — CBO projections suggest US interest spending is on track to surpass defense and Medicare in 2024 -AOL.com

by Jing Pan

The U.S. federal government’s rising debt is alarming to many, with legendary investor Paul Tudor Jones also expressing significant concern.

In a recent interview with CNBC, the billionaire and founder of Tudor Investment Corporation highlighted the looming threat of America's "debt bomb" potentially reaching a critical point.

Jones acknowledged the current strength of the U.S. economy but attributed it to the government's extensive borrowing and spending.

He cautioned about the repercussions of persistent deficit spending, stating, “We've got a 6%-7% budget deficit. We're fast-pouring consumption like crazy. It should be going gangbusters because we've got an economy on steroids, and it's unsustainable.”

The Commerce Department's advance estimate revealed that real GDP in the U.S. experienced a 3.3% annual growth rate in Q4 of 2023, surpassing the anticipated 2% increase set by economists.

The stock market has witnessed substantial growth, too, with the S&P 500 surging 28% over the past 12 months.

However, Jones warned that the burgeoning debt issue is bound to impact the market sooner or later, stating, “It could be this year, it could be next year. Productivity may mask and it might be three or four years from now but clearly, clearly we're on an unsustainable path." READ MORE

RealMoneyBlog - Free daily/weekly email

2.23.24 - Was America Just Attacked?

Gold last traded at $2,039 an ounce. Silver at $22.99 an ounce.

EDITOR'S NOTE: Was Thursday's communication disruption a fluke? Or was there a more sinister cause at the root? We will likely never know the truth but moments like these remind us how vulnerable we are, with other world powers having the capability to shut down our communications systems in a flash. That would affect every aspect of our lives, from our livelihood to our safety.

Was America Just Attacked? We Have Now Been Put On Notice That Our Communication Infrastructure Is Extremely Vulnerable -The Economic Collapse

What would we do if we suddenly couldn’t use the Internet or our phones any longer? For a lot of people, such a scenario would be unthinkable. In fact, it felt like the “world is ending” for many AT&T customers on Thursday. The disruption to AT&T’s network only lasted for a few hours, but it created quite a frenzy. If we are going to see this much panic for an outage that happens for just a few hours, what would our society look like if Internet and phone communication was down for days, weeks or even months?

Once the outage began, federal authorities moved very rapidly to determine whether it was a cyberattack or not…

Federal agencies are ‘urgently investigating’ whether the massive cellular outage that plagued Americans on Thursday was a cyberattack.

The Federal Federal Bureau of Investigation (FBI) and Department of Homeland Security (DHS) are on the hunt to track down what disrupted service AT&T, Verizon, T-Mobile and a dozen other cellular providers.

While the agencies have not shared details, a security expert told DailyMail.com that the outage has hallmarks of a hack. READ MORE

RealMoneyBlog - Free daily/weekly email

2.22.24 - Avg US Household Costs: Up $1019 per month

Gold last traded at $2,024 an ounce. Silver at $22.75 an ounce.

EDITOR'S NOTE: This headline is something you'll never hear the talking heads in DC admit. Instead, they keep manipulating the numbers to make our economy seem rosier than it is. Anyone who feeds a family or heats a home knows differently. US households are spending over $1,000 MORE per month in expenses than they were just three short years ago. And it's unlikely to improve given our current trajectory.

The Average U.S. Household Is Spending $1,019 More A Month Just To Buy The Same Goods And Services It Did 3 Years Ago -The Economic Collapse

It seems odd to talk about 2021 as “the good old days”, but the truth is that the cost of living was far lower just three short years ago. Earlier today, I did an interview with Sam Rohrer of Stand In The Gap Today in which we discussed how food prices have gotten wildly out of control. One example that I brought up was the fact that a Big Mac “value meal” can cost up to 18 dollars in some parts of the country. There is no way that I would shell out 18 bucks for a burger, some fries and a drink at McDonald’s. But this is the economic environment that we live in today.

Has your income gone up by more than a thousand dollars a month over the past three years?

If not, you are falling behind.

According to economist Mark Zandi, the average U.S. household is now shelling out an additional $1,019 a month just to purchase the exact same goods and services that it did three years ago…

The typical U.S. household needed to pay $213 more a month in January to purchase the same goods and services it did one year ago because of still-high inflation, according to new calculations from Moody’s Analytics chief economist Mark Zandi.

Americans are paying on average $605 more each month compared with the same time two years ago and $1,019 more compared with three years ago, before the inflation crisis began. READ MORE

RealMoneyBlog - Free daily/weekly email

2.21.24 - No soft landing

Gold last traded at $2,026 an ounce. Silver at $22.89 an ounce.

All Of The Elements Are In Place For An Economic Crisis Of Staggering Proportions -The Economic Collapse

Several sources - for several months - have suggested a crash is coming in 2024; but why now? The Fed can no longer contain the debt or bolster the economy with free money. The day of reckoning, for four years of reckless spending, may be nigh.

They were able to delay the U.S. economy’s day of reckoning, but they were not able to put it off indefinitely. During the pandemic, the Federal Reserve pumped trillions of dollars into the financial system and our politicians borrowed and spent trillions of dollars that we did not have. All of that money caused quite a bit of inflation, but it also created a “sugar rush” for the economy. In other words, economic conditions were substantially better than they would have been otherwise. Unfortunately, there will be a great price to be paid for such short-term thinking. From the federal government on down, our entire society is absolutely drowning in debt, and now it appears that our economic problems are about to go to the next level.

In early 2024, there are all sorts of signs that economic activity in the U.S. is really starting to slow down.

For example, we just learned that consumer spending “fell sharply” during the month of January…

Consumer spending fell sharply in January, presenting a potential early danger sign for the economy, the Commerce Department reported Thursday. READ MORE

No soft landing: The US economy is going to fall into recession in the middle of 2024, Citi's chief economist says -Yahoo! Finance

I think we all hoped for a soft landing - that our economy could recover once again; but that seems to be a fading dream given the reality of our current situation. Citi's chief economist is stating that by mid 2024, we will be in a recession. It may be time to buckle our financial seat belts.

by Aruni Soni

The soft-landing dream is over; instead, the US economy is headed for a recession in the middle of 2024, Citi says.

"There's this very powerful and seductive narrative around a soft landing, and we're just not seeing it in the data," Citi's chief US economist, Andrew Hollenhorst, said in a CNBC interview.

On the surface, the data looks great: The economy is benefiting from historically low unemployment, strong consumer spending, and robust GDP growth.

But there's more going on with the numbers than meets the eye.

"The question is where are these forward-looking indicators showing us that we're going to go," Hollenhorst said.

One place the economy is showing a weakness is the labor market. January had a blowout jobs report, adding 353,000 jobs to the economy. But Hollenhorst noted that if you scratch beneath the surface, the number of hours worked is falling, the number of full-time workers has decreased, and sectors such as the restaurant industry have stalled on hiring.

"That's the key to the economy — what happens in the labor market," Hollenhorst said. "If the unemployment rate stays low, people continue to spend, the economy holds up." But he added that the unemployment rate was expected to start rising, which would be "the sign that we're going to have a more material decline in the US economy." READ MORE

A US Bank Is Now Making Unexpected Account Closures -Frank Nez

2023 was filled with a lot of negative banking news and a lot of uncertain depositors. We saw bank closures, seizures of cash with no explanation, unexplained account closures, etc. It would appear that this trend is continuing into 2024.

A US bank is now making unexpected account closures after a fuming customer said the bank told her a reason was not required.

A customer warned others on social media not to open an account with Varo Bank after her account was abruptly closed without warning.

The fuming customer posted a video on social media, informing her audience of the bank’s suspicious activity, reports The-Sun.

In a video by TikTok user Nikki Nicole (@nikiyanicole85), she encouraged her audience to “get your money and run.”

“If you have Varo Bank, leave them alone,” she heeded.

“Get your money out your account. Close your accounts immediately.”

The user claimed the bank was closing their customer’s account without reason.

“[The bank will] send you emails saying that they don’t have to have a reason to close your account.” READ MORE

RealMoneyBlog - Free daily/weekly email

2.20.24 - Gold at $3,000 and oil at $100 by 2025?

Gold last traded at $2,024 an ounce. Silver at $23.00 an ounce.

EDITOR'S NOTE: It looks as though gold has a fantastic future ahead; this according to Citi. Citi analysts are weighing in on the yellow metal as they assess the current condition of the world and foresee some major gains on the horizon. They also see some aggressive gains being made in oil prices. The time to position in these areas is today!

Gold at $3,000 and oil at $100 by 2025? Citi analysts don’t rule it out -CNBC

by Lee Ying Shan

Gold prices could soar to $3,000 per ounce, and oil to $100 per barrel within the next 12 to 18 months subject to any one of three possible catalysts, according to Citi.

Gold, which is currently trading at $2,016, could surge by about 50%, if central banks sharply ramp up purchases of the yellow metal, a possible stagflation, or in case of a deep global recession, Aakash Doshi, Citi’s North America head of commodities research, told CNBC.

Central bank’s gold rush

“The most likely wildcard path to $3,000/oz gold is a rapid acceleration of an existing but slow-moving trend: de-dollarization across Emerging Markets central banks that in turn leads to a crisis of confidence in the U.S. dollar,” Citi analysts including Doshi wrote in a recent note.

That could double central bank’s gold purchases, challenging jewelry consumption as the largest driver of gold demand, Doshi elaborated.

Central banks’ gold purchases have “accelerated to record levels” in recent years, as they seek to diversify reserves and reduce credit risk, Citi said. China and Russian central banks are leading gold purchases, with India, Turkey, and Brazil, also increasing bullion buying.

The world’s central banks have sustained two successive years of more than 1,000 tons of net gold purchases, the World Gold Council reported in January.

“If that goes again [to] double very quickly to 2,000 tons, we think that would be actually very bullish for gold,” Doshi told CNBC via phone. READ MORE

RealMoneyBlog - Free daily/weekly email

2.16.24 - Bezos Unloads Another $2 Billion of Amazon Stock

Gold last traded at $2,013 an ounce. Silver at $23.39 an ounce.

EDITOR'S NOTE: Jeff Bezos is selling off a few billion dollars worth of his stock. This is all part of what is known as a planned and disclosed sale of stock. The question is, why? And why now? As the talks of an overvalued market on the verge of crash continue, insiders selling off their stock tend to signal that it's time to get out.

Bezos Unloads Another $2 Billion of Amazon Stock in Latest Sale -Yahoo! Finance

by Kristine Owram

(Bloomberg) -- Jeff Bezos has unloaded another 12 million shares of Amazon.com Inc. valued at $2 billion, bringing the total sold in the past week to more than $6 billion.

He sold the latest tranche on Tuesday and Wednesday, according to a filing. The sales are part of an already disclosed plan to dispose of as many as 50 million shares of the company he founded.

In total, he’s now sold about 36 million shares. Bezos hasn’t explained why he’s selling, but the timing of when he instituted the trading plan may provide a clue. He announced on Nov. 2 he was moving to Miami from the Seattle region and adopted a so-called 10(b)5-1 plan on Nov. 8.

The move to Florida has now likely saved Bezos about $430 million in taxes. Washington state recently implemented a 7% levy on capital gains, while Florida has no such tax. READ MORE

RealMoneyBlog - Free daily/weekly email

2.15.24 - Stock market flashing crash?

Gold last traded at $2,003 an ounce. Silver at $22.93 an ounce.

EDITOR'S NOTE: Watching the stock market lately feels like suspended reality. The bullish euphoria feels at odds with all that is happening around us. We've sadly seen this too many times before to not know how this story ends. Not with a whimper but with a bang; an abrupt and sharp one - just like 2000 and 2008.

The stock market is looking a lot like it did before the dot-com and '08 crashes, top economist says -Yahoo! Finance

by Jennifer Sor

he stock market is flashing the same warning signs of "speculative mania" that preceded the crashes of 2008 and 2000, according to economist David Rosenberg.

The Rosenberg Research president — who called the 2008 recession and who's been a vocal bear on Wall Street amid the latest market rally — pointed to the "raging bull market" that's taken off in stocks, with the S&P 500 surpassing the 5,000 mark for the first time ever last week.

The benchmark index has soared around 22% from its low in October last year, clearing the official threshold for a bull market. The index has also gained for the last five weeks and has been up for 14 of the last 15 weeks — a winning streak that hasn't been seen since the early 1970s.

But the stellar gains are a double-edged sword for investors, as the market looks dangerously similar to the environment prior to the dot-com and 2008 crashes, Rosenberg wrote in a note on Monday.

"With each passing day, this has the feel of being a cross between 1999 and 2007. It is a gigantic speculative price bubble across most risk assets, and while AI is real, so was the Internet, and so were the high-flying stocks that populated the Nifty Fifty era," he said, referring to the group of 50 large-cap stocks that dominated the stock market in the 60s and 70s, before falling by around 60%. READ MORE

RealMoneyBlog - Free daily/weekly email

2.14.24 - Beneath the Skin of CPI Inflation

Gold last traded at $1,991 an ounce. Silver at $22.34 an ounce.

BRICS: Will Mexico Join The Bloc and Abandon US Dollar in 2024? -watcher.guru

It would appear our neighbors to the South are considering making the same move as several other nations and joining the BRICS alliance. If Mexico were to make this move alone, it wouldn't be much of an impact; however a lot of financially smaller nations combined with several larger ones could be crippling to the US.

by Michael Grullon

One of the most speculated nations on the brink of joining BRICS and abandoning the US dollar in 2024 is Mexico. The nation has been working to strengthen ties with its North American counterpart United States, therefore, many doubt that the sudden jump to BRICS is in Mexico’s future.

Mexico was long rumored to have an interest in joining BRICS last year. However, before the alliance’s August summit, Mexican president Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador firmly stated that Mexico would not participate. Since that declaration, Mexico hasn’t appeared to change its mind on the alliance.

Both Mexico and the BRICS bloc would benefit if the country were to join the alliance in 2024. For example, The move could impact Mexico’s relations with other countries, including its neighboring the U.S. and Canada. The U.S. dollar’s global status will also be challenged if Mexico accepts the upcoming BRICS currency.

Mexico would have access to larger markets and greater bargaining power in international affairs. With the number of nations interested in and already involved with BRICS, Mexico’s economy will also have access to work in tandem with other top nations across the ocean. In addition, Mexico accepting BRICS currency for international trade could pave the way for Latin American countries to cut ties with the U.S. dollar. The BRICS currency could capture the Latin American markets making other nations end reliance on the U.S. dollar. READ MORE

Beneath the Skin of CPI Inflation, January: Powell’s Gonna Have a Cow when he Sees the Spike in “Core Services” Inflation-Wolf Street

Inflation continues to fight for top headlines. There was really no reason to believe inflation was waning; other than the empty assurances from overly optimistic Wall Street pundits and vote-seeking politicians.

by Wolf Richter for WOLF STREET

We’ll start with the “core services” CPI (services minus energy services) because this is so crucial, and because Powell keeps talking about it. We have been concerned here for months about the refusal of core services inflation to ease off, and we’ve found the acceleration in the fall last year “very disconcerting.” But that’s how inflation is – it tends to serve up nasty surprises. And now it did.

“Core services” CPI jumped by 0.66% in January from December, or by 8.2% annualized (blue). In this inflation cycle, only three months were worse (April, June, and September 2022). It includes housing, insurance, health care, subscriptions, etc., but not energy services. Core services is where consumers do the majority of their spending – and it’s re-heating from already hot levels.

The three-month moving average, which irons out the month-to-month squiggles, jumped by 0.50%, or by 6.2% annualized (red), the worst since March 2023. All this according to the CPI data released today by the Bureau of Labor Statistics. VIEW CHARTS AND READ MORE

Bank of America Warns Customers of Data Breach -Retail Wire

Another data breach in the banking system has occurred. Data breaches are not a new thing but they are most definitely increasing in intensity and frequency. Banks have traditionally been a safe place to keep our money, but that narrative seems to be rapidly changing.

by Dennis Limmer

Bank of America has alerted its customers to a data breach after one of its service providers, Infosys McCamish Systems (IMS), was hacked last year.

The breach exposed customers’ personally identifiable information (PII), including names, addresses, Social Security numbers, dates of birth, and financial details like account and credit card numbers. The Attorney General of Texas received these details.

Bank of America serves around 69 million clients across more than 3,800 retail financial centers and 15,000 ATMs in the United States, its territories, and over 35 countries.

When contacted for comment, a Bank of America spokesperson declined to provide additional details and directed inquiries to Infosys McCamish.

While the exact number of affected customers has not been disclosed by Bank of America, a breach notification letter filed with the Attorney General of Maine revealed that 57,028 people were directly impacted.

IMS experienced a cybersecurity event around Nov. 3, 2023, resulting in the unauthorized access of IMS systems and the non-availability of certain applications. On Nov. 24, 2023, IMS informed Bank of America that data related to deferred compensation plans may have been compromised, although Bank of America’s systems remained unaffected. READ MORE

RealMoneyBlog - Free daily/weekly email

2.13.24 - Will the silver shortage lead to higher prices?

Gold last traded at $1,992 an ounce. Silver at $22.12 an ounce.

EDITOR'S NOTE: The price of silver is poised for some explosive gains in 2024. Supply shortages are playing a major role in that prediction. Add to that, rising domestic and foreign financial pressures and these predictions may very soon be a reality.

Silver Set To Rise To $30 This Year, But Where Is Momentum? -Investing Haven

A recent physical silver market research report suggests silver to hit $30 in 2024. This seems a very low silver price target considering a silver supply deficit, bullish secular silver chart, silver relative to gold undervaluation.

Should the price of silver not be closer to $50 given the supply deficit?

The Silver Institute released its latest physical silver market report, about a week ago.

In summary, while silver demand is forecasted to remain robust, supply is expected to increase slightly, leading to a physical silver market shortage.

Demand Forecast: Global silver demand is projected to reach 1.2 billion ounces in 2024, potentially the second-highest level ever recorded. This growth is driven by stronger industrial offtake and is expected to hit a new annual high, propelled by increased industrial end-uses and a recovery in jewelry and silverware demand. READ MORE

RealMoneyBlog - Free daily/weekly email

2.12.24 - Gold Forecasted To Reach Fresh All-time High

Gold last traded at $2,020 an ounce. Silver at $22.69 an ounce.

EDITOR'S NOTE: Last week we saw a 2024 gold price prediction of $2,200. This analyst sees an even greater high of $2,250. Some have suggested we will see $3,000 gold this year. Only time will tell, but what nearly all of these predictions have in common is their reasoning for a jump; market turmoil and ever-increasing geopolitical concerns.

Gold Forecasted To Reach Fresh All-time High of $2,250 -watcher.guru

by Vinod Dsouza

Gold prices remain on a slippery slope as the XAU/USD charts are on a downward spiral this month in February 2024. The price of gold dipped from a high of $2,100 this year and is now hovering around the $2,240 level. It is now facing strong resistance at this level. The precious metal dipped after the US dollar outperformed all leading currencies and came out on top.

The US dollar index (DXY) is now at 104 and steadily climbed from a low of 101.80 this year. A stronger US dollar dimmed the lights for gold making it to head south in the charts for two weeks. Read here to know how the US dollar will fare this year in 2024.

Despite the market turmoil, commodities are expected to grow this year in 2024. Leading commodity analysts remain bullish and are confident that the markets will recover after Q2 this year. The dip is now a good time to accumulate and wait to create profits during the second half of 2024. Historically, gold has always delivered a positive monthly average return during on-hold interest rate periods by the Federal Reserve.

The Feds paused the interest rate hike for the fourth time in a row which could lead gold prices to recover. Naveen Mathur, the Director of Commodities at Anand Rathi forecasted that gold prices will shine from Q2 of this year. Moving ahead, he estimated that gold prices have a chance of reaching fresh all-time highs and could hit $2,250 in 2024. READ MORE

RealMoneyBlog - Free daily/weekly email

2.9.24 - Even Better Than Goldilocks!

Gold last traded at $2,024 an ounce. Silver at $22.58 an ounce.

EDITOR'S NOTE: We have written often on the mismatch in what we hear about the health of the economy versus what we all feel in our own households or see with our own eyes in our communities. Mr. Maher of Daily Reckoning breaks this down in such a succinct and humorous way. As he states so eloquently within, "the greatest lies harbor truthful kernels".

Even Better Than Goldilocks! -Daily Reckoning

by Brian Maher

We stand before the gates of Elysium. Paradise is in view.

Here are some recent headlines:

“U.S. Labor Market Sizzles With Blowout Job Growth, Solid Wage Gains”…

“Another Shockingly Good Jobs Report Shows America’s Economy Is Booming”…

“The U.S. Didn’t Just Avoid a Recession — It’s Adding Hundreds of Thousands of New Jobs”…

“The U.S. Economy Isn’t ‘Goldilocks,’ It’s Even Better.”

The list runs and runs. All are in unity — the United States economy is hale… and the United States economy is hearty.

Is it?

Not so Fast

Your editor is cursed with a distrustful nature.

It is, in certain regards, excessive — perhaps even harmful.

Who else inspects his own mother’s cooking for cyanide lacing?

This profound distrust is a bias of course. Yet hard experience with government statistics fortifies and validates it.

And so we distrust the latest economic data.

The numbers are not necessarily lies. They are worse than lies — they are partial truths.

And the greatest lies harbor truthful kernels. The propagandist knows it well. And he makes high use of it. READ MORE

RealMoneyBlog - Free daily/weekly email

2.8.24 - How far has the US fallen?

Gold last traded at $2,032 an ounce. Silver at $22.57 an ounce.

EDITOR'S NOTE: There is no question that the world around us has changed drastically since 2020, both fiscally and socially. One of the most unique aspects of the American way of life is the tolerances that this nation affords to people of all backgrounds. But what used to be a dream has turned into a nightmare, as some abuse these liberties.

12 Absolutely Insane Examples That Show Just How Far The US Has Fallen -ZeroHedge

Authored by Michael Snyder via The End of The American Dream blog

When I was young, I often wondered what it must have been like to live during the fall of the Roman Empire. Unfortunately, now I have a pretty good idea. Just like the Roman Empire, the United States is falling. Every day our decline gets even more pronounced, and you can see evidence of this all around us. Virtually all of our major institutions are crumbling, and virtually all of our most critical systems are failing.

We tend to blame our problems on our politicians, but the truth is that the rot that is rapidly spreading throughout our society runs a lot deeper than that.

Millions upon millions of us have completely rejected the values that this nation was founded upon, and so now we have a giant mess on our hands.

The following are 12 absolutely insane examples that show just how far the U.S. has fallen…READ MORE

RealMoneyBlog - Free daily/weekly email

2.7.24 - Delinquency Rates Are Spiking

Gold last traded at $2,036 an ounce. Silver at $22.43 an ounce.

New York Community Bancorp Collapse Nears 27-Year-Lows After 'Talks With Regulator' Revealed -Zerohedge

Another bank - and its less than solid balance sheet - is in the news. This time it's New York Community Bancorp. As many have warned, the regional banking crisis is far from over, and this bank's fall from grace has some people questioning the timing.

"That's a nice regional bank lender you got there... be a shame if anything happened to it..."

We have warned for months - as regional bank shares soared back from SVB crisis lows - that this small bank balance sheet crisis was far from over... and worse still the 'big banks' have money to burn with excess reserves (to use, for example, to help the FDIC clean up some small bank issues)...

Last week we highlighted the dominoes had started falling in regionals, and the initial domino - New York Community Bancorp - is back in the cross-hairs as Bloomberg reports that, according to people with direct knowledge of the matter, mounting pressure from a top US watchdog led to the bank's surprise decision to slash its dividend and stockpile cash in case commercial real estate loans go bad.

The drastic actions - which prompted a collapse in the bank's shares - followed behind-the-scenes conversations with officials from the Office of the Comptroller of the Currency, the people said.

Now, far be it from us to speculate but could a quiet call have been made to prompt regulators to suddenly pay attention? VIEW CHARTS AND READ MORE

Delinquency Rates Are Spiking! Has The Final Meltdown Of The U.S. Consumer Now Begun? -The Economic Collapse

Delinquency rates are spiking here in the US. Is this the "Final Meltdown of the US Consumer"? Is this headline doom and gloom, or simply an accurate description of what is taking place?

According to the New York Fed, total household debt in the United States increased by 212 billion dollars during the fourth quarter of 2023. It is now sitting at a grand total of 17.5 trillion dollars. I suppose the good news is that we aren’t 34 trillion dollars in debt like the federal government is. But 17.5 trillion dollars is still really bad, and it is far more than U.S. households can handle. Unsurprisingly, delinquency rates have started to spike, and I fully expect this trend to intensify in the months ahead.

Let’s start by taking a look at credit card debt. During the fourth quarter, it hit a brand new all-time record high of 1.13 trillion dollars…

Americans are increasingly turning to their credit cards to cover everyday expenses, with debt hitting a new record high at the end of December, according to a New York Federal Reserve report published Tuesday.

In the three-month period from October to December, total credit card debt surged to $1.13 trillion, an increase of $50 billion, or 4.6% from the previous quarter, according to the report. It marks the highest level on record in Fed data dating back to 2003 and the ninth consecutive annual increase.

The average rate of interest on credit card balances is now way above 20 percent, and so it has been very foolish of us to run up so much credit card debt.

And now millions of Americans are falling behind on their payments. READ MORE

Silver set for a ‘terrific year’ and could outperform gold to hit a 10-year high -CNBC

On a positive note, gold and silver may be getting ready to duke it out for the top performer spot this year. Both of the metals have established a very strong value base over the last few years and have all the fundamentals in place to potentially make it a year for the record books.

by Lee Ying Shan

This could be a banner year for silver, with prices potentially hitting a decade-high.

Global silver demand is forecast to reach 1.2 billion ounces in 2024, which would mark the second-highest level on record, the Silver Institute said in a recent report.

“Stronger industrial offtake is a principal catalyst for the rising global demand for the white metal, and the sector should hit a new annual high this year,” said the institute, a nonprofit international association comprising various members across the silver industry. Silver is used primarily for industrial purposes and commonly incorporated in the manufacturing of automobiles, solar panels, jewelry and electronics.

“We think silver will have a terrific year, especially in terms of demand,” Michael DiRienzo, executive director of the Silver Institute told CNBC. He expects silver prices to reach $30 per ounce, which would be a 10-year high, according to data from LSEG. READ MORE

RealMoneyBlog - Free daily/weekly email

2.6.24 - Gold prices to hit $2,200

Gold last traded at $2,036 an ounce. Silver at $22.43 an ounce.

EDITOR'S NOTE: Here's another positive performance projection for gold in 2024, this one by UBS. It is on the low side compared to several others, but it is suggesting a nearly 10% increase on the year. They also see some very good things happening with silver prices.

Gold prices to hit $2,200 and a ‘dramatic’ outperformance awaits silver in 2024, says UBS -CNBC

by Lee Ying Shan

Gold and silver are expected to climb further in 2024 on expectations that the U.S. Federal Reserve will start cutting interest rates, UBS forecasts.

“We are expecting gold to be pushed higher by a Fed easing. Also this comes with a weaker dollar” said the investment bank’s precious metals strategist Joni Teves, who expects the metal to hit $2,200 per ounce by the end of the year.

Gold prices tend to have an inverse relationship with interest rates. As interest rates dip, gold becomes more appealing compared to alternative investments like bonds, which would yield weaker returns in a low interest rate environment.

In turn, lower rates weaken the dollar, making gold cheaper for international buyers, driving up demand.

While there is still much uncertainty on the timing and extent of rate cuts, UBS maintained its expectations for the Federal Reserve to ease policy. Last week, the Fed announced its decision to leave rates unchanged in January, on top of shooting down hopes of a rate cut in March.

The bullion’s appeal as a safe haven asset has risen since Israel’s war with Hamas began on Oct. 7, which contributed to gold prices notching an all-time high of $2,100 an ounce last month.

“We do think investors will start to build allocations to gold in an environment where there is a lot of macro uncertainty [and] geopolitical risks,” said Teves.

Prospects for gold’s “poorer cousin” are also optimistic, with silver on course to “really, really shine.” READ MORE

RealMoneyBlog - Free daily/weekly email

2.5.24 - Theater Of The Absurd

Gold last traded at $2,024 an ounce. Silver at $22.35 an ounce.

EDITOR'S NOTE: Theater of the Absurd ... the perfect title to describe our economy and the interpretations of the data we are being given. As this article so perfectly states, we can all see and feel the reality of what is happening; yet, to listen to the government - as well as some of the talking heads out there - we should feel as if we are thriving. It's just not the truth.

Theater Of The Absurd -The Economic Collapse

They are taking gaslighting to a whole new level in 2024. The raw, unadjusted figures that the Bureau of Labor Statistics just released say that the U.S. economy lost more than 2.6 million jobs last month. That is what actually happened. But after they massaged that number with all sorts of “assumptions” and “adjustments”, it magically turned into a gain of 353,000 jobs. Amazingly, even Fox Business is attempting to claim that this adjusted number shows “the resilience of the labor market”…

U.S. job growth unexpectedly surged in January, underscoring the resilience of the labor market even in the face of high interest rates and stubborn inflation.

Employers added 353,000 jobs in January, the Labor Department said in its monthly payroll report released Friday, easily topping the 180,000 gain forecast by Refinitiv economists. The unemployment rate held steady at 3.7%, against expectations for a slight increase.

Give me a break.

I am so disappointed in Fox Business.

And they actually interviewed an “expert” that was so excited about “how widespread the hiring has become”… READ MORE

RealMoneyBlog - Free daily/weekly email

2.2.24 - Institutional Investors Dump Stocks At Record Pace

Gold last traded at $2,037 an ounce. Silver at $22.69 an ounce.

EDITOR'S NOTE: Institutions are dumping equities. Could this be a sign of trouble ahead? There have been rumblings of a stock market correction for a while now and institutions dumping equities could be just the trigger to do it.

Institutional Investors Dump U.S. Stocks At Record Pace -watcher.guru

by Vinod Dsouza

Institutional investors are fleeing the U.S. stock markets at a record pace with the second-highest sell-offs since 2008. This is the second-biggest weekly outflow in U.S. stocks since the market crash that triggered a recession in 2008. The larger U.S. stocks dump from institutional clients came from the technology, securities, and staples sectors. The tech industry is experiencing large-scale job cuts with Microsoft and other giants firing their staff.

“Clients were net sellers of U.S. equities for the first time in three weeks,” reported Bank of America. The banks’ analysts Jill Carey Hall, Nicolas Woods, and Savita Subramanian highlighted that institutional clients primarily ignited the selling.

The recent data from Bank of America also shows that institutional investors did not limit their exit from U.S. stocks alone. Large-scale sell-offs were also triggered in mutual funds and pension funds. The institutional clients were also from insurance companies, and banks across the U.S.

While the capitalists jumped ship, average investors are worried, thinking that institutions know something that the normal investors don’t. The sell-offs come at a time when several financial analysts are ringing the warning bells of an upcoming recession. This puts the U.S. stocks in a spot where another round of sell-offs could deeply hurt the equities market.

The ripple effect could also hit the worldwide markets as the U.S. equity sector is closely knitted globally. A slump in U.S. stocks reflects negatively on the global markets making almost all equities turn red. However, the only beneficiary in this development will be gold as prices for the precious metal could skyrocket. READ MORE

2.1.24 - The Death Spiral of Government Debt

Gold last traded at $2,055 an ounce. Silver at $23.20 an ounce.

EDITOR'S NOTE: Starwood Capital CEO Barry Sternlicht said this week that the Federal Reserve has left a "serious mess" in capital markets and the real estate market. Nassim Nicholas Taleb shares this sentiment and sadly believes it will take a miracle to save us. Debt will be our demise, debt the government created.

‘Black Swan’ author Nassim Taleb, who correctly called the 2008 financial crisis, says the U.S. is in a ‘death spiral’ over government debt -Yahoo! Finance

by Eleanor Pringle

It's been dubbed the "most predictable crisis" facing the U.S. economy, but an expert has warned it will take a "miracle" to save America from its national debt problem.

Nassim Nicholas Taleb, the author of best-selling book The Black Swan, correctly predicted the 2008 financial crash but said "gloomy" times ahead for the U.S. economy are far more easy to spot.

Taleb, who advises Miami-based hedge fund Universa Investments, told an event hosted by the organization this week that national debt is a "white swan," a risk that's more probable than an unpredictable "black swan" event.

“So long as you have Congress keep extending the debt limit and doing deals because they’re afraid of the consequences of doing the right thing, that’s the political structure of the political system, eventually you’re going to have a debt spiral,” he explained, per Bloomberg. “And a debt spiral is like a death spiral.”

Currently the American national debt stands at $34.14 trillion—about $100,000 for every person in the U.S.—with the debt ceiling currently suspended until 2025 courtesy of a deal passed in the summer of 2023. READ MORE

RealMoneyBlog - Free daily/weekly email

1.31.24 - Trump Vows to Stop Biden Bucks

Gold last traded at $2,036 an ounce. Silver at $22.90 an ounce.

Jamie Dimon says Washington faces a global market ‘rebellion’ over record U.S. debt: ‘It is a cliff…we’re going 60 mph towards it’ -Yahoo! Finance

Love him or hate him, Jamie Dimon has always been a pretty good predictor of what's to come. He's been warning us for quite some time now about the US debt and how it will impact the global economy, not just domestic markets. He believes the financial cliff is 10 years out. This may seem far away but markets will continue to erode as we near the precipice. Prepare yourself now.

by Eleanor Pringle

The global economy is approaching the point of no return courtesy of mounting government debt, believes JPMorgan Chase CEO Jamie Dimon, and it will lead to a massive falling-out of markets and federal institutions.

Currently the American national debt stands at $34.14 trillion—about $100,000 for every person in the U.S.—with the debt ceiling currently suspended until 2025 courtesy of a deal passed in the summer of 2023.

And although some of the shorter-term economic signals are flashing green—inflation is coming down, the Fed may by eyeing rate cuts, and employment is staying stable—the boss of America's biggest bank isn't convinced there isn't a major red flag up ahead.

Speaking on a panel alongside former Speaker of the House Paul Ryan at the Bipartisan Policy Center last week, Dimon said the American government is facing a "hockey stick" effect when it comes to government debt.

He drew on the comparison of the 1980s for context, explaining that in 1982 unemployment was at around 10% while the stock market had sat stagnant for 15 to 20 years. Even with the Vietnam War, America's debt-to-GDP ratio was around 35%, Dimon said, whereas today it sits at 100%.

"Back then the deficit during a recession—you do spend money in a recession—was 4% or 5%; today it's 6.5% in a boom time," Dimon continued. READ MORE

Trump Vows to Stop Biden Bucks - Daily Reckoning

The implementation of a Central Bank Digital Currency would be devastating to our freedom. Several financial experts have warned of the dangers of a CBDC, but few in the mainstream media have covered this. The government already requires banks to report certain spending but with a central back digital currency, they wouldn't need to report. The government would already be able to shut down access to your own money if they decided you were spending it the way they deemed appropriate.

by James Rickards

At a recent New Hampshire campaign rally, Donald Trump reiterated what he’s been saying for months: that central bank digital currencies (CBDCs) are dangerous and he would never allow one if elected:

Tonight, I am also making another promise to protect Americans from government tyranny. As your president, I will never allow the creation of a central bank digital currency…

Such a currency would give… our federal government, the absolute control over your money. They could take your money. You wouldn’t even know it was gone. This would be a dangerous threat to freedom.

Welcome aboard, Mr. President.

If you’ve been following my writings, you know that I’ve been sounding the alarm about what I call Biden Bucks for nearly two years. I’ve warned about Joe Biden’s plan to control your money and take away your privacy rights completely.

I like to think that someone brought my warnings to Donald Trump’s attention since I’ve been one of very few people to outline the dangers that Biden Bucks pose to Americans’ freedom. I’d be very happy if I was at least partially responsible for stopping them. READ MORE

Famed Analyst Richard Bove Says US Dollar Is Finished as World's Reserve Currency — Expects China to Overtake US Economy -Bitcoin.com

Is the dollar finished? Richard Bove believes it is. Read on to see why he believes his fellow analysts won't sound the same alarm.

by Kevin Helms

Renowned financial analyst with over 54 years of experience, Richard Bove, has warned that the U.S. dollar is finished as the world’s reserve currency, cautioning that China will overtake the U.S. economy. He warned that the offshoring of American manufacturing poses a significant threat to the financial sector and the U.S. dollar.

Bove shared his dire outlook for the U.S. economy in an interview with the New York Times on Saturday. The 83-year-old worked as a financial analyst for 54 years at 17 brokerage firms; he officially announced his retirement last week. Voicing concerns about the future of the U.S. dollar, he said: "The dollar is finished as the world’s reserve currency."

In addition, Bove predicted that China will overtake the U.S. economy. He emphasized that no other analysts will make a similar statement because they are “monks praying to money,” choosing not to critique the mainstream financial system that employs them. He added that many analysts are rewarded for making unique but inconsequential and “arcane” statements.

Bove has warned about the global rise of the Chinese yuan as a threat to the U.S. dollar for quite some time. In January 2019, he explained that “China and its allies are working diligently to establish a multilateral world.” He noted, “The United States is creating a financial vacuum into which the yuan is creeping,” adding: “The biggest banks in the world are now headquartered in China.” READ MORE

RealMoneyBlog - Free daily/weekly email

1.30.24 - BofA closing 40 branches by March

Gold last traded at $2,036 an ounce. Silver at $23.18 an ounce.

EDITOR'S NOTE: Banks will be leaving a city near you soon; due to the continued wave of branch closures across the country. As banking locations continue to dwindle, coupled with some banks who have flat out closed up shop, it's the customers who are left with the stress. Is your bank still safe?

A Massive Bank Is Now Closing 40 Branches By March-Frank Nez

by Frank Nez

A massive bank is now closing 40 branches by March, according to the latest data from the Office of the Comptroller of the Currency.

Bank of America has released a new list of branches set to close this year, including 40 locations nationwide during the first quarter of 2024.

In 2023, Bank of America closed down more than a hundred branches and has already scheduled the closure of several more.

This information was reported by the Office of the Comptroller of Currency (OCC), which requires banks to report all closures to the federal agency.

The bank is adjusting to the reduced demand for in-person services, which has led to the closure of some branches and the opening of others, reports AS. READ MORE

RealMoneyBlog - Free daily/weekly email

1.29.24 - Russia Building New Payment System Without US Dollar

Gold last traded at $2,031 an ounce. Silver at $23.18 an ounce.

EDITOR'S NOTE: The currency movement referred to as BRICS continues to pick up momentum. Russia is now looking to establish a payment system through this effort, which many experts believe will be a devastating blow to the US dollar. Let us hope it's not a death blow.

BRICS: Russia Building New Payment System Without U.S. Dollar -watcher.guru

by Vinod Dsouza

BRICS member Russia confirmed on Sunday that Kremlin is working towards building a new payment system without incorporating the U.S. dollar. Russia aims to build a new payment mechanism to settle cross-border transactions with BRICS and other developing countries bypassing the US dollar. The decision to build a new payment system comes after the U.S. pressed sanctions on Russia for invading Ukraine.

If Russia succeeds in building a new payment system asking BRICS and other countries to pay in local currencies, the U.S. dollar will be the hardest hit currency. Read here to know how many sectors in the U.S. will be affected if BRICS ditches the dollar for trade.

Kremlin spokesperson Dmitry Peskov confirmed that Russia is advancing towards building a new payment mechanism without the U.S. dollar. He also called the traditional world order dominated by the U.S. dollar system “unreliable, false, and dangerous”.

“Russia is building a new system of economic connections because the previous system turned out to be unreliable, false, and dangerous. Russia is looking for an opportunity to develop alternatives,” confirmed Peskov to MenaFN.

However, Peskov did not specify the nature of the new payment mechanism and its scalability. He did not provide insights into the new payment system approved by BRICS to challenge the U.S. dollar. Further details about the payment network are kept under wraps and Russia is unwilling to provide insights. READ MORE

RealMoneyBlog - Free daily/weekly email

1.26.24 - Wondrous Tales and Fantastic Lies

Gold last traded at $2,018 an ounce. Silver at $22.81 an ounce.

EDITOR'S NOTE: We are starting to feel like a broken record in this space but these latest government numbers - as reported by the mainstream media - are bordering on comical; if you can bring yourself to laugh at something so scandalous. As the author concludes toward the end of this piece, "There are lies, damn lies and statistics, as runs the common expression. We request that government merely confine itself to lies and to damned lies." Wouldn't that be nice?

"Blistering!" - Daily Reckoning

by Brian Maher

CNBC:

"The U.S. economy grew at [a] blistering 3.3% pace in Q4 while inflation pulled back."

CNBC cites the latest economic data, issuing this morning from the Department of Commerce.

Continues CNBC:

The economy grew at a much more rapid pace than expected while inflation eased in the final three months of 2023, as the U.S. easily skirted a recession that many forecasters had thought was inevitable, the Commerce Department reported Thursday.

Gross domestic product, a measure of all the goods and services produced, increased at a 3.3% annualized rate in the fourth quarter of 2023, according to data adjusted seasonally and for inflation.

That compared with the Wall Street consensus estimate for a gain of 2% in the final three months of the year. The third quarter grew at a 4.9% pace.

Just so. We nonetheless remain skeptical of today’s economic news.

We remind you that numbers can conceal more than they reveal. They often spin wondrous tales… and tell fantastic lies.

Like a Hollywood movie set… a false set of teeth… or a toupee… the numbers are not often as they appear.

Let us then expose the numbers to sunlight. Let us haul them up for interrogation. READ MORE

RealMoneyBlog - Free daily/weekly email

11.29.23 - Bad Omens Are Everywhere

Gold last traded at $2,048 an ounce. Silver at $25.11 an ounce.

The Entire Banking System Is Shaking -Economic Collapse Blog

On Monday, we mentioned this news about bank branches closing. Of course, the banks cite the rise of digital banking as their reason for closure but is there a bleaker, financial motivation for these cost-cutting moves?

by Michael Snyder

Why are big banks suddenly rushing to shut down so many local branches all over the nation? As I have discussed in previous articles, U.S. banks are currently sitting on hundreds of billions of dollars in unrealized losses. When financial institutions get into trouble, they start getting really tight with their money and they start cutting costs. In addition to laying off workers, our banks have been cutting costs by permanently closing local branches. For example, between November 12th and November 18th, the sixth largest bank in the United States initiated filings to close 19 more local branches…

America’s sixth-largest bank, PNC, has confirmed the closure of 19 more branches nationwide, following a staggering 203 branch closures earlier this year. This decision, aligning with the bank’s shift towards digital banking, is raising concerns among customers who prefer traditional banking methods.

Scheduled for February 2024, the closures will primarily impact ​Pennsylvania, where the majority of branches marked for closure are located. However, several branches in other states, including ​Illinois, ​Texas, Alabama, New Jersey, Ohio, Florida, and Indiana, will also be shutting their doors, leaving customers in these regions with limited access to in-person banking services, The Sun reported. READ MORE

Bad Omens Are Everywhere -Daily Reckoning

Mr. Rickards always paints a very clear picture of the state of our economy. He has a talent for cutting through the noise and presenting the economic reality. Unfortunately, it's not good news, despite what the pundits keep preaching. Read on to see his take ...

by James Rickards

Analysts note that U.S. inflation is coming down and that interest rates are coming down at the same time.

Many assume this is good news for the economy and especially good news for stocks. But that superficial analysis does not hold up to scrutiny.

With regard to interest rates, it is true that the yield-to-maturity on 10-year Treasury notes has dropped from 5.0% to 4.33% in recent weeks.

But the drop in rates does not reflect a prosperous economy or a more benign environment for borrowers. It reflects a U.S. economy that is entering a recession, possibly a severe one.

Unemployment will rise, hiring will slow and even those with jobs will become more cautious as they see friends, neighbors and co-workers head to the unemployment office.

In this kind of environment, consumers reflexively spend less and save more even if their jobs seem secure. READ MORE

U.S. consumer credit card debt at highest levels ever, ahead of the holidays -WBIR NBC

This news may not seem all that concerning or surprising but consumer spending (read: consumer confidence) is a very important barometer of the health of the economy overall. With the pandemic bump in savings all but gone for most consumers, what will this holiday season hold?

by Lauren Davis

Overall, U.S. consumers were carrying around $1.1 trillion in credit card debt at the end of the third quarter of 2023, heading into the holidays.

The Federal Reserve Bank of New York has been tracking credit card debt since 1999. Credit card debt in the U.S. is at the highest level it's been since then, with the total amount of debt in the third quarter of 2023 reaching around $1.08 trillion dollars.

"It's harder now than it has been, because interest rates are historically high just due to the economic climate that we're in right now," said Tim Young, a wealth advisor for the Tennessee Valley Asset Management Partners.

Young said it may tempting for people to spend more with credit cards during the holidays, but it isn't necessarily the best idea.

"I think a lot of people have had some fear and some concern as of late, with just things that are going on, and they run to something like buying Christmas presents to make up for that," said Young. "Which is totally understandable. I can see how, you know, especially if you've got kids that can be something that's a priority for you. But when it comes to managing your finances, I think it's important to think long-term beyond just that next shiny thing that you can get." READ MORE

RealMoneyBlog - Free daily/weekly email

1.25.24 - Living On The Edge Of Disaster?

Gold last traded at $2,017 an ounce. Silver at $22.82 an ounce.

EDITOR'S NOTE: Most Americans are now acquiring debt just to pay for living expenses and many wouldn't be able to handle a $500 emergency. To add insult to injury, layoffs are up 98% - yes, you read that right, 98%. According the the government, unemployment is low and inflation is falling too. Who's buying it?

Most Americans Are Literally Living On The Edge Of Disaster -The Economic Collapse

There is a tremendous disconnect between the economic numbers that the government is giving us and what most Americans are personally experiencing on a daily basis. The government says that inflation is low, but the cost of living just continues to spiral out of control. The government says that unemployment is low, but Challenger, Gray & Christmas says that the number of layoffs in the U.S. was up 98 percent last year. The government says that the economic outlook for 2024 is positive, but companies all over America are acting as if extremely hard times are ahead. So who are we supposed to believe?

Personally, I trust numbers that come from private sources far more than numbers that come from government sources.

For example, a survey that was just conducted by Bankrate discovered that 56 percent of all U.S. adults do not have enough money to handle an unexpected expense of $1,000…

A majority of Americans say a $1,000 emergency expense would be too great of a hit to their savings and that they could not afford it, according to new data released Wednesday.

Bankrate’s latest survey results found 56% of U.S. adults lack the emergency funds to handle a $1,000 unexpected expense and one-third (35%) said they would have to borrow the money somehow to pay for it. READ MORE

RealMoneyBlog - Free daily/weekly email

1.24.24 - Inflation Gives Fed the Finger

Gold last traded at $2,012 an ounce. Silver at $22.67 an ounce.

Billionaire CEO sees $1 trillion in commercial real estate defaults coming for ‘very, very ugly market’ over next 2 years -Yahoo! Finance

In a time when all markets are teetering on a precipice, the commercial real estate market doesn't get as much attention as it should. It's one that essentially has no hope of recovery, or even a soft landing. And its crash will have far-reaching consequences.

by Will Daniel

Rising interest rates, the remote work trend, and the dominance of e-commerce sellers have combined to hammer the commercial real estate market over the past few years. Sky-high office and retail space vacancies are plaguing owners in this new environment, rents are plummeting, and borrowing costs have soared. As a result, U.S. commercial real estate prices have fallen 11% since the Federal Reserve began raising interest rates in March 2022, the IMF reported last week, the worst decline in over 50 years.

The outlook for the sector is now so bleak that Cantor Fitzgerald’s billionaire chairman and CEO Howard Lutnick is predicting between $700 billion to $1 trillion of defaults over the next two years unless interest rates fall quickly—and he sees that as unlikely.

“I think it’s going to be a very, very ugly market in owning real estate over the next 18 months, two years,” Lutnick told Fox Business last week, arguing that there’s going to be a “generational change” in real estate.

To his point, there’s an estimated $1.2 trillion in commercial real estate debt maturing by the end of 2025, according to the Mortgage Bankers Association, and 25% of that debt is in the hands of struggling office and retail space operators. With interest rates rising more than 5 percentage points in the past two years, that’s a recipe for defaults. READ MORE

Inflation Gives Fed the Finger -Daily Reckoning

The government is still hanging their hat on the hope that the average American hasn't noticed that real inflation is wildly out of control. The talking heads always point to core inflation (which strips out basic living costs) to paint a rosier picture; and now they have had to turn to super-core inflation to get the numbers to look good. As Mr. Rickards so succinctly puts it in regards to the super-core inflation numbers falling ... "That’s good news for people who don’t eat or drive and live in a tent."

by James Rickards

Is inflation over? Actually, no. And it may be getting worse.

Let’s begin the analysis with the latest data. Last Friday, the Bureau of Labor Statistics reported that inflation (as measured by the Consumer Price Index, CPI, on a year-over-year basis) was 3.4%.

That’s practically the Federal Reserve’s worst nightmare.

Here’s why: The Fed stopped raising interest rates last July. At that time, they set the target policy rate for fed funds at 5.50%. Despite some internal debate, there have been no further rate hikes in the last three meetings.

In the December 2023 meeting, Fed Chair Jay Powell more or less confirmed that the Fed had reached what they call the “terminal rate.” The terminal rate is defined as a rate that’s high enough to bring inflation down on its own without further rate hikes.

This belief put the Fed on pause and immediately started speculation about the “pivot” to rate cuts in the near future. READ MORE

The Fed's big miss on inflation has doomed the US to recession this year, top economist says -Yahoo! Finance

The Fed missed the mark on inflation utterly and completely, but they still want us to believe them when they say they can engineer a soft landing. The US is headed for recession, now is the time to prepare your portfolio.

by Aruni Soni

The US may have tiptoed around a recession last year, but it won't be so lucky in 2024, according to the top economist at the hedge fund Brevan Howard.

That's because monetary policy remains way too tight to nail the "Sully Sullenberger soft landing of all soft landings," Jason Cummins said in Bloomberg's "Odd Lots" podcast.

"Monetary policy now is as tight as it has ever been on the precipice of a recession," he said, barring an exception in 1984.

The central bank hiked interest rates at the fastest pace in four decades, hitching rates up from near-zero levels in March 2022 all the way to 5.25%-5.5% in July 2023.

And that's weighing down the economy, Cummins warned, pointing out that household survey data shows that the number of people moving into the labor force into a job has dropped by a record amount.

"A very careful look at the labor market now will suggest that hiring has just ground to a halt," he said. "So if it weren't for participation falling back by a huge amount, three-tenths in the last report, the unemployment rate would've gone up by three tenths to 4%."

The problem is that the Fed badly misread how long high inflation would linger, prompting it to raise rates much more aggressively than needed. READ MORE

RealMoneyBlog - Free daily/weekly email

1.23.24 - A 10% spike for gold

Gold last traded at $2,029 an ounce. Silver at $22.44 an ounce.

EDITOR'S NOTE: UBS is starting the new year with a rosy outlook for gold performance. Their projection is not as aggressive as several others out there but the reason behind it is the same: Global monetary policy, uncertainty, and geopolitical tension.

UBS sees a 10% spike for gold this year as rate cut speculation swirls -CNBC

READ MORE Gold prices could close the year as much as 10% above current levels on the back of potential interest rate cuts, UBS strategists said, despite declines at the start of 2024.

A UBS note on Friday described recent price moves as “minor” in the context of the precious metal’s 15% climb through 2023 and said the “power of the [Federal Reserve]’s policy pivot should not be underestimated.”

Bullion remains above the psychological level of $2,000 per ounce, the UBS strategists said, forecasting a rise to $2,250 per ounce by the end of the year, despite near-time volatility.

Analysts at Scotiabank retained a more cautious outlook, but revised their price guidance higher. In a Monday note, they said they had adopted higher gold and silver prices for this and next year, and moved their year-end gold forecast to $2,000 per ounce, from $1,900 per ounce, previously.

Gold prices can be impacted by factors including geopolitical instability and market uncertainty — which can boost the appeal of bullion as a “safe haven” asset — and interest rates, which can make higher-yielding investments more attractive when they are raised. READ MORE

RealMoneyBlog - Free daily/weekly email

1.22.24 - Do you feel the economy is healthy?

Gold last traded at $2,021 an ounce. Silver at $22.09 an ounce.

EDITOR'S NOTE: If you listen to Wall Street, you'd think the economic engine is chugging along along in a positive direction. But most Americans are instead experiencing the turmoil associated with a crumbling economy. Here is a good breakdown of what's really happening.

How Can Anyone Possibly Claim That The U.S. Economy Is Doing Well With All Of This Going On? -The Economic Collapse

How in the world can anybody possibly claim that the U.S. economy is in good shape? Honestly, I don’t see how anyone can make a rational argument that this is the case. Actually, the only people that seem to be trying to claim that the U.S. economy is heading in the right direction are those in the upper tiers of the economic food chain. At this stage, those in the lower tiers of the economic food chain are very well aware of how much they are suffering. Poverty, homelessness and hunger are rapidly growing all over America right now. But if you still have plenty of money and those around you still have plenty of money, you may be wondering what all of the fuss is about. If you are one of those people, hopefully this article will be a wake up call for you.

Let’s start with the housing market. On Friday, we learned that sales of previously owned homes in December 2023 were 6.2 percent lower than they were in December 2022…

Sales of previously owned homes fell 1% in December compared with November to 3.78 million units on a seasonally adjusted annualized basis, according to the National Association of Realtors. Sales were 6.2% lower than in December 2022, marking the lowest level since August 2010. READ MORE

RealMoneyBlog - Free daily/weekly email

1.19.24 - Bigger Crash Than 2008?

Gold last traded at $2,029 an ounce. Silver at $22.61 an ounce.

EDITOR'S NOTE: Macroeconomist Henrik Zeberg sees inevitable trouble ahead and believes nothing can be done to stop it. So what should the average American do to protect themselves in these conditions? Make sure your portfolio is well-balanced and includes assets that perform best in a recessionary environment.

US Stock Market: Bigger Crash Than 2008 on the Cards, Explains Analyst -watcher.guru

The US stock market remains in muddy waters as the Ukraine and Russia war, Israel and Palestine conflict, and the Red Sea trade disruption can bring the economy down in 2024. Macroeconomist Henrik Zeberg warned that the US stock market could experience a bigger crash than 2008 in the coming months. The analyst highlighted several indicators that show the US economy walking on a thin rope since last year.

According to Zeberg, the factors that could lead the US stock market to crash majorly include Yield inversion, higher interest rates for home buyers, an increase in consumers’ mortgage and debt, and less demand for inventories, among other various factors.

“Major Recession will set in. The Titanic has already hit the iceberg – and it will sink. There is nothing that can be done from the Fed or any administration,” he said.

Zeberg’s analysis is based on the Business Cycle Model that predicts an upcoming recession. According to his expertise, this model, tracks the record accurately predicting recessions over 80 years. He explained that the leading indicators are crashing beneath their equilibrium line, and that points towards a recession. READ MORE

RealMoneyBlog - Free daily/weekly email

1.18.24 - A Bullish Development in Silver

Gold last traded at $2,023 an ounce. Silver at $22.74 an ounce.

EDITOR'S NOTE: The stage is set for a breakout year for silver prices. With mounting economic uncertainties alongside a serious supply shortage, some are predicting silver prices could reach as much as $50 an ounce. Certainly believable given the factors at play.

Silver: The Most Bullish Development Of 2024 Goes Unnoticed -Investing Haven

The silver market has a very bullish profile. We would argue: silver is very bullish. This conclusion is contrast with the lack of bullish silver price action.

Silver price vs. silver market

Before looking at one of the most bullish developments in the silver market, we need to distinguish two concepts: the silver price vs. the silver market.

We are very bullish silver, meaning we expect the price of silver to move much, much higher, certainly to $50/oz, even though the exact timing of the start of the big silver run remains tough to predict.

The prospects for a rise in the price of silver is rooted in the physical silver market situation combined with the paper silver market conditions.

On the one hand, as said in the past, a silver supply shortage has been developing in recent years. It started a few years ago, and the tipping point was reached approximately a year ago, as per this research. The situation in the physical silver market might get out of hand if industrial demand for silver continues to rise. READ MORE

RealMoneyBlog - Free daily/weekly email

1.17.24 - Real Estate Collapse Will Lead to 'Chaos'

Gold last traded at $2,006 an ounce. Silver at $22.55 an ounce.

Goldman Was Dumping Billions In Stocks And Other Assets As It Told Clients To Buy -ZeroHedge

It looks like Goldman is once again following the tired trope, "Do as I say, not as I do." How better to dump the assets you don't want than by telling your clients to buy!

by Tyler Durden

After getting his 2023 forecast catastrophically wrong in Nov 2022 when he predicted the S&P would close 2023 at only 4,000, or effectively unchanged for the year...

Goldman's chief equity strategist David Kostin scrambled to overcompensate in his next annual preview, first writing in his 2024 Equity Outlook note published in mid-November that he now expected the S&P to close at 4,700...

... only to change his mind exactly one month later when, in the middle of the biggest year-end meltup in decades, he revised his 2024 price target upward again this time to 5,100.

While it would be easy - and correct - to be cynical and observe that all Kostin was doing was chasing both market price, and the herd of other sellside analysts all of whom were suddenly outbulling each other like a waddle of penguins on meth, it is irrelevant what prompted Kostin to push the afterburners on his bullish take. Instead, what sparked our interest is what Goldman itself was doing during the time the bank was telling its clients to buy.

Because as we learned going through the bank's latest quarterly investor presentation, we are confident that it will come as no surprise to regular readers (especially those who have read our previous notes on the matter such as "Goldman Quietly Sold Billions In Stocks In Q4 And 2021", "Goldman Quietly Sells Billions In Stocks For The Third Quarter In A Row". etc), Goldman was aggressively liquidating billions in its "principal investments" throughout 2023.

As the bank reveals in a chart on slide 16, revealing the details of its Asset & Wealth Management division, in a year when Goldman expected stocks to levitate modestly and, eventually, to soar higher, the bank was selling... and selling... and selling. Indeed, while the group, which was once better known as Goldman's feared Prop Trading division, had "on-balance sheet alternative investments" of some $29.7 billion as of Dec 31, 2022, that number declined anywhere between $2 and $4 billion every quarter for the next four - with the bulk of sales taking place int he final quarter - before closing the year at just $16.3 billion! VIEW CHARTS AND READ MORE

Kevin O’Leary Says a Coming Real Estate Collapse Will Lead to ‘Chaos’ — Here’s What You Need To Know -Yahoo! Finance

While Kevin O'Leary is the most notable name sounding this alarm, he's far from the only one. A commercial real estate collapse will have far-reaching consequences. We live in a different workspace world now, one that will never be the same as it was pre-pandemic. There really is no way for this sector to recover and the collapse will be devastating.

by Gabrielle Olya

“Shark Tank” star Kevin O’Leary believes that the commercial real estate sector is on the brink of collapse and will bring with it ripple effects that will be detrimental to investors and small business owners. He expanded on this “unique situation” while appearing on a recent episode of “Kudlow.”

Here’s everything you need to know about the state of commercial real estate and how it can have broader economic impacts.

The Shift Away From In-Person Work Will Lead To More Bank Failures

Although many large-scale companies are shifting back to in-office work, many small businesses are not making this return. This means that many office buildings are remaining vacant.

“Many of these office spaces are in sub-grade markets, but even in cities like Boston, you find lots of vacancies — up to 40% of buildings,” O’Leary said. “The challenge is, in every other real estate cycle when you have a correction — which is about to happen here because of rising rates — we’ve got to refinance these buildings. Many of them have no equity left in them.”

This will cause serious issues for the regional banks that are invested in these buildings.

“These banks are going to fail because up to 40% of their portfolio is in commercial real estate,” O’Leary said. READ MORE

Will the Fed Sabotage Trump? -Daily Reckoning

Is the Fed apolitical? Most of us would snigger at such an assertion, but perhaps they do stay above the political fray? Or they are simply really great at hiding their tracks.

by James Rickards

It’s an election year. Interest rates are high relative to current inflation rates and are the highest they’ve been since 2006.

Do those two conditions have anything to do with each other? The Federal Reserve would say no but history would say yes.

On the one hand, the Federal Reserve has always maintained they are above politics. According to Fed propaganda, members of the board of governors check their politics at the door of the Fed boardroom and act solely on the basis of economic data and what’s best for the U.S. economy in terms of inflation and unemployment.

Of course, that’s nonsense. The Fed has always been highly political. It’s just that they’re very good at hiding it. READ MORE

RealMoneyBlog - Free daily/weekly email

1.16.24 - 20 Large Companies Conducting Mass Layoffs

Gold last traded at $2,025 an ounce. Silver at $22.91 an ounce.

EDITOR'S NOTE: The unraveling of the US economy continues. After a year that seemed like a non-stop ride on the struggle bus, it's hard to believe 2024 will be any better.

Alert! Here Is A List Of 20 Large Companies That Have Just Decided To Conduct Mass Layoffs -The Economic Collapse

The layoffs are starting to come at a fast and furious pace now. At what point will the mainstream media finally admit that we are facing a major crisis? In recent days, I have been writing quite a bit about the alarming transition that the employment market is going through. There is a lot more competition for any jobs that are still available, and one recent survey discovered that almost 40 percent of U.S. companies anticipate that they will be conducting layoffs in 2024. But even though I am just reporting the facts, I have had people write to me and insist that things really aren’t that bad. Even though the government’s own numbers show that the U.S. lost a ton of full-time jobs in December, these people apparently believe the propaganda that is being fed to them by the Biden administration.

Look, the truth is that the economy really is bleeding good jobs. In this article, I am going to provide you with 20 examples of large companies that have just decided to conduct mass layoffs…

#1 One of our “too big to fail” banks has just announced that it will be eliminating 20,000 good paying jobs… READ MORE

RealMoneyBlog - Free daily/weekly email

1.12.24 - US Budget Deficit Soars By 50% In December

Gold last traded at $2,047 an ounce. Silver at $23.16 an ounce.

EDITOR'S NOTE: "The US is on an accelerating path to ruin", that sums it up quite succinctly. This debt is not sustainable, no matter how much one massages the data. Now the question is, when will the dam break? Make sure your investment portfolio is ready to handle what could be a difficult year, and a difficult decade.

US Budget Deficit Soars By 50% In December As Fiscal Collapse Under Biden Accelerates -ZeroHedge

by Tyler Durden

Remember when we showed that the "stealth" secret sauce behind Bidenomics was nothing more than a massive, multi-trillion debt-fueled spending spree, which led to the biggest peacetime, non-crisis budget deficit in US history, with the total deficit for fiscal 2023 ending just over $2 trillion, or double the prior year, something which BofA's Michael Hartnett called the "era of fiscal excess"?

Well, we have news for you: if 2023 was bad, 2024 - an election year of course - is shaping up to be far worse.

Moments ago the US Treasury reported the budget deficit picture for December and it will come as no surprise to anyone that the US has continued to spend like a drunken sailor, or rather, even more. As shown in the chart below, in the month of December, the US collected $429 billion through various taxes, while total outlays hit $559 billion...

... resulting in a December deficit of $129.4 billion.

This may not sound like a lot, but December is actually one of those months when the US deficit is relatively tame, or used to be.

As shown in the next chart, traditionally the December deficit was barely in the $10-20BN range... until 2020 when it exploded to an all time high of $140BN. And while it dropped sharply in 2021, it rebounded dramatically in 2022, and rose to just shy of the December crisis high last month!

Here is some more context: tax receipts of $429.3BN in December were down 5.6% from the $454.9BN in December 2022 and down a whopping 11.8% from December 2021. On an LTM basis, US total tax receipts were $4.521TN, or down 7.2% YoY. This is now the 9th consecutive YoY decline in LTM tax receipts, something that historically has only taken place when the US was in a recession. As an aside, the "smart economists" were certain that the collapse in tax receipts would reverse after November when the postponed California taxes would be collected. Well, November has come and gone and the big picture is just as ugly. VIEW CHARTS AND READ MORE

RealMoneyBlog - Free daily/weekly email

1.11.24 - Buying the S&P 500 a 'pretty lousy trade'

Gold last traded at $2,026 an ounce. Silver at $22.72 an ounce.

EDITOR'S NOTE: Another prominent investor joins the chorus of voices who are concerned a recession is looming, as growth slows and the US debt balloons. Jeffrey Gundlach of DoubleLine Capital, sees volatility ahead in 2024. It's a sentiment many share. Now is the time to make sure your portfolio is ready to weather the storm.

Buying the S&P 500 seems like a 'pretty lousy trade' right now - and a US recession is looming, billionaire investor Jeffrey Gundlach says -Yahoo! Finance

by Theron Mohamed -Business Insider

The S&P 500 is in a precarious spot, and all signs point to a looming US recession, Jeffrey Gundlach says.

The billionaire investor and DoubleLine Capital CEO noted in a public webcast on Tuesday that following the benchmark US stock index's 24% rally last year, it now trades around the same level as it did at the start of 2022.

"This looks like a pretty lousy trade location with a double top going on," he said, according to DoubleLine's live blog of his comments on X.

Investopedia describes a double top as an "extremely bearish technical reversal pattern" where an asset hits a high price twice with a decline in between.

Gundlach also flagged that Wall Street expects the S&P 500 companies to grow total operating earnings by a hefty 11% this year.

"If that doesn't come through, it's going to be hard for the S&P 500 to sustain this level," he said, nodding to the fact that a company's stock is typically valued at a multiple to its earnings.

The veteran fund manager also touted value stocks over their growth peers after years of underperformance. He pointed out that the "Magnificent Seven" technology stocks that led the market's charge last year have "gone dead sideways" since July, signaling a shift in momentum. READ MORE

RealMoneyBlog - Free daily/weekly email

1.10.24 - Office Vacancies Hit Record High

Gold last traded at $2,022 an ounce. Silver at $22.90 an ounce.

Initial US employment reports overstated by 439,000 jobs in 2023 -Fox Business

It's incredible how often the government "cooks the books" and gets away with it. In reality, far fewer jobs have been added, labor participation is at a historic low and many Americans are holding down multiple jobs just to pay their bills. None of this bodes well.

by Elizabeth MacDonald

There’s something wrong with previous U.S. jobs reports.

The government quietly erased 439,000 jobs through November 2023, a closer look at the numbers from the Bureau of Labor Statistics shows.

That means its initial jobs results were inflated by 439,000 positions, and the job market is not as healthy as the government suggests.

Since the government wiped out 439,000 jobs after the fact, the total percentage of jobs created by the government last year is even higher. Increased government hiring has been driving the jobs numbers higher.

This matters because U.S. jobs reports move the markets and U.S. Treasury yields. Plus, they are a significant factor in the Federal Reserve’s decisions about the path of interest rate hikes and cuts. All that affects U.S. consumers’ pocketbooks. READ MORE

Office Vacancies Hit Record High Across US Cities As CRE Downturn Worsens -ZeroHedge

Things are not looking up for the commercial real estate market and that looks to be the new norm as more and more corporations leave large cities and keep workers at home. This may not seem like a sector that matters to the average American but if nobody wants to rent commercial space and the property owners can't pay their mortgages, regional banks will once again start to fall like dominoes over delinquent loans.

by Tyler Durden

Courtesy of the Federal Reserve's most aggressive interest rate hiking cycle in a generation, a surge in remote work in a post-Covid world, and imploding Democrat-run cities with radical progressives in City Halls who fail to enforce common sense 'law and order,' the office sector is reeling and faces an accelerated downturn.

New data from Moody's Analytics shows that 19.6% of office space across major US metro areas was not leased as of the fourth quarter of 2023, exceeding the previous high of 19.3% in the commercial real estate downturn between 1986 and 1991.

"The bulk of the vacant space are buildings that were built in the 1950s, '60s, '70s, and '80s," Mary Ann Tighe, chief executive of the New York tri-state region at real-estate brokerage CBRE, told The Wall Street Journal.

The new record directly reflects the remote and hybrid work trends that have surged since Covid as companies reduce overall corporate footprints.

Kastle Systems, the gold-standard measure of office-occupancy trends via card-swipe data, has yet to recover from pre-Covid levels.

Another driver of rising office vacancy, but not mentioned in the WSJ report nor other legacy corporate media outlets covering the new Moody's Analytics data, is that failed social justice reforms in Democrat cities have forced companies to shift operations to safer areas. This is a topic widely ignored by woke journos. VIEW CHARTS AND READ MORE

Slowly. Then Rapidly. -Daily Reckoning

It took 205 years for the US debt to reach $1 trillion, and now, we have added $1 trillion to the debt in under four months. It doesn't take an economics degree to realize the math on that is likely not going to end well.

by Brian Maher

Slowly. Then rapidly…

In 1981 — 205 years after the nation’s birth — its debt first scaled $1 trillion.

That is, the business was the work of 205 years.

Today the work of 205 years reduces not to centuries… not to decades… not to years… but to months.

Consider: The nation’s debt attained an existingly delirious $33 trillion in September 2023.

In January 2024 — a mere four months following the calamity— the national debt gallops to $34 trillion.

Four months!

No — under four months. The $33 trillion embarrassment was not attained until mid-September.

The $34 trillion enormity was attained the opening week of January.

Impossible. But there it is. READ MORE

RealMoneyBlog - Free daily/weekly email

1.9.24 - Buckle Up For A Bumpy 2024

Gold last traded at $2,030 an ounce. Silver at $22.97 an ounce.

EDITOR'S NOTE: If you're looking for a sugar-coated 2024 financial forecast, this article may not be for you. It seems like there is very little optimism for the economy in the coming year. The fundamentals are pointing more toward turmoil and recession than gains and resilience.

Buckle Up For A Bumpy 2024, Economists Warn -Zero Hedge

Authored by Emel Akan via The Epoch Times

The U.S. economy embarked on a rollercoaster ride in 2023, grappling with high inflation, soaring interest rates, wars abroad, and a shaky banking sector.

This time last year, the U.S. economy was bracing for an impending recession. Concerns about a recession persisted through 2023, particularly following the banking turmoil in the second quarter, which witnessed a 1930s-style bank run on Silicon Valley and First Republic Banks.

The Federal Reserve intervened with emergency measures, and as a result, bank liquidity recovered and financial and credit markets soon normalized, as if the crisis had never happened.

In the months that followed, the U.S. economy surpassed expectations and defied recession fears. The economy grew at a faster-than-expected 4.9 percent in the third quarter, boosted by strong consumer and government spending.

Currently, there’s growing talk about the prospect of a “soft landing” in 2024. Nevertheless, economists remain cautious, with many expecting a bumpy ride ahead due to the lingering effects of tight monetary policy over the past two years.

Although the economy has shown resilience in the face of numerous challenges, many analysts predict a significant slowdown in the coming months, with some even anticipating a recession. READ MORE

RealMoneyBlog - Free daily/weekly email

1.8.24 - Will Robots Take Most Of Our Jobs?

Gold last traded at $2,028 an ounce. Silver at $23.10 an ounce.

EDITOR'S NOTE: The capabilities of AI are growing by the minute and infiltrating every area of our day-to-day lives. AI affects advertising, content creation, product development and manufacture, shipping, logistics, the list is endless. The question is, at what cost?

What Is Going To Happen To Our Society As AI And Robots Take Most Of Our Jobs? -The Economic Collapse

If you haven’t lost your job yet, you should be very thankful. Artificial intelligence and robots are taking more of our jobs with each passing day, and there will be no end to this high tech invasion. Eventually we could get to a point where AI and robots can do virtually everything far more efficiently and far more inexpensively than humans can. So what will happen to the vast majority of the human population when their labor is no longer needed? Will a way be found to quietly deal with “useless eaters” that are considered to be “just taking up space”? For years we have been warned that AI and robots would revolutionize the workforce, and now that day has officially arrived.

For example, Amazon has been using various types of simple robots to perform certain tasks for years, and now highly sophisticated humanoid robots are being deployed right alongside normal human workers…

Amazon recently began testing a new robot in its warehouse operations — meet Digit, a humanoid bipedal robot with a turquoise torso and smiley eyes.

Designed by Agility Robotics, which Amazon has invested in as part of its Industrial Innovation Fund, Digit is only the latest of a string of warehouse robots the company has introduced over the last several years. However, most of the other warehouse robots have been cart-shaped or robotic arms, not humanoid like Digit.

Digit costs about $10 to $12 an hour to operate right now, based on its price and lifespan, but the company predicts that cost to drop to $2 to $3 an hour plus overhead software costs as production ramps up, Agility Robotics CEO Damion Shelton told Bloomberg. READ MORE

RealMoneyBlog - Free daily/weekly email

1.5.24 - A fresh wave of US bank failures?

Gold last traded at $2,044 an ounce. Silver at $23.19 an ounce.

EDITOR'S NOTE: As 2024 dawns, the banking woes of 2023 continue. Finance experts predict a wave of failures to come. Sadly, this doesn't come as much of a shock as the foundation has been faltering for some time.

Fed rate cuts come too late to avert a fresh wave of US bank failures -Yahoo! Finance

by Ambrose Evans-Pritchard

Emergency lending by the US federal authorities has bathed America’s struggling regional banks in short-term liquidity, disguising the slow-burn damage of the US commercial property slump.

A sobering analysis by four of the country’s leading finance experts says this comfort blanket has created a beguiling illusion of stability. The underlying crisis in the banking system continues to deepen as $5 trillion of commercial real estate debt taken out during the zero-rate era comes due in tranches.

“It’s not a liquidity problem; it’s a solvency problem,” said Professor Tomasz Piskorski, a banking specialist at Columbia University, and one of the lead authors. “Temporary measures have calmed the market but half of all US banks are running short of deposits with assets worth less than their liabilities, and we are talking about $9 trillion,” he said.

“They are bleeding capital and could not survive if something triggers a sudden loss of confidence. It is a very fragile situation and the Federal Reserve is watching it closely”. READ MORE

RealMoneyBlog - Free daily/weekly email

1.4.24 - A Massive US Bank is Now Closing Credit Cards

Gold last traded at $2,044 an ounce. Silver at $23.04 an ounce.

EDITOR'S NOTE: As if there weren't already enough questions surrounding the actions of our nation's banks, a new trend is developing. Banks appear to be arbitrarily closing customers' credit cards without due cause. It is a bank's prerogative to do so; but why do they feel this is necessary?

A Massive US Bank is Now Closing Credit Cards -Frank Nez

A massive US bank is now closing credit cards without warning according to new customer reports on social forums.

A Reddit user says Bank of America closed a total of four of their credit cards with many other (now ex) customers confirming the same experience.

They explained that they had missed one payment six years earlier and had an "almost perfect" FICO score.

"I checked TransUnion and the bank in question had checked my credit report one day then promptly on the same day sent a mail with no details on why my credit cards I had for 10+ years…was closed," they wrote.

The customer service representative didn't give them any details on why the accounts were closed, but the poster did say another institution they have a credit card with ran their credit report the day before BOA made the decision to close the card. READ MORE

RealMoneyBlog - Free daily/weekly email

1.3.24 - The Incredibly Ballooning US Government Debt

Gold last traded at $2,038 an ounce. Silver at $23.05 an ounce.

Gold Prices Predicted To Hit Record Highs Of $2,300 In 2024 -ZeroHedge

JP Morgan joins the chorus of financial giants predicting new highs for gold in 2024; some experts see the price moving to $3000/ounce and beyond. Considering what it's already done at the close of 2023, this seems quite feasible.

Authored by Naveen Athrappully via The Epoch Times

After prices jumped in 2023, gold is entering 2024 with many experts suggesting the safe haven asset could hit record highs this year.

In 2023, gold prices jumped from around $1,823 per oz. to $2,062 per oz.—an increase of over 13 percent—making it the best year for the yellow metal since 2020. On Dec. 4, gold hit a record-high price of $2,135.40 per oz. For 2024, experts predict gold prices to move higher.

“Following on from a surprisingly robust performance in 2023, we see further price gains in 2024, driven by a trifecta of momentum chasing hedge funds, central banks continuing to buy physical gold at a firm pace, and not least renewed demand from ETF investors,” said Saxo Bank’s Ole Hansen, according to Reuters.

JP Morgan predicts gold to see a “breakout rally” starting in the middle of this year due to Federal Reserve’s interest rate cuts. The bank expects gold to hit a peak of $2,300. Meanwhile, UBS projects gold prices to hit $2,150 by the end of this year if the rate cuts were to take place. READ MORE

The Incredibly Ballooning US Government Debt Spikes by $1 Trillion in 15 Weeks to $34 Trillion -Wolf Street

At this point, one has to assume that Congress really believes that money grows on trees. The first line of this article should give everyone pause, interest payments on the debt alone will eat up HALF of what the government takes in on tax revenues. So what will they use to actually run the country?

By Wolf Richter

Interest payments threatening to eat up half the tax receipts may be the only disciplinary force left to deal with Congress.

The total US national debt spiked by $1.0 trillion in 15 weeks since September 15, to $34.0 trillion, according to the Treasury Department’s figures this afternoon. In the seven months since the debt ceiling was lifted, the national debt spiked by $2.5 trillion.

These are huge gigantic numbers that are piling up as a result of the incredible hard-to-fathom daredevil reckless shake-your-head deficit spending by Congress. Congratulations, America! We made it, $34 trillion!

Since the beginning of 2016, the total debt has spiked by $15 trillion, or by 80%! This stuff is just breathtaking. READ MORE

Massive Cybersecurity Breach at Xfinity: Over 35 Million Customers at Risk -Franklin County Free Press

Another data breach of another major corporation who should be unhackable. Now, imagine the government creating a digital currency and not only promising to safely store all of your financial data but also being solely responsible for making sure your digital dollars aren't stolen by hackers? This is what they want to do. Do you trust them to do it well?

In a significant cybersecurity incident, Comcast’s Xfinity service experienced a data breach impacting over 35 million customers, marking a concerning trend in digital security vulnerabilities. This breach, which exposed sensitive customer information, underscores the increasing challenges in protecting personal data in the digital age.

In mid-October, Xfinity alerted its customers to unauthorized access to its internal systems. This intrusion, linked to a vulnerability previously disclosed by software provider Citrix, occurred between October 16th and 19th. It wasn’t until October 25th that Xfinity detected suspicious activities, eventually realizing that customer data was likely compromised.

The breach’s scale is staggering, with filings indicating nearly 35.9 million customers affected. The compromised information included usernames, hashed passwords, and for some, more sensitive data such as the last four digits of Social Security numbers, account security questions, birthdates, and contact information.

Steven Weisman, an expert on cybersecurity and editor of Scamicide.com, highlights the severity of the situation. The breach’s nature, where hackers accessed partial Social Security numbers, significantly increases the risk of identity theft. Weisman notes that the first five digits of a Social Security number can often be inferred from geographical and issuance data, making the last four digits particularly sensitive. READ MORE

RealMoneyBlog - Free daily/weekly email

1.2.24 - Americans in these states will pay less in taxes

Gold last traded at $2,058 an ounce. Silver at $23.65 an ounce.

EDITOR'S NOTE: As inflationary pressures continue to mount, there may be a reprieve on the horizon; but only for some. Twelve states are looking to reduce personal income tax in order to free up additional funds for struggling households. Hopefully other states will jump on board as we venture into 2024.

Americans in these states will pay less in taxes this year -Fox Business

by Megan Henney

A number of states are lowering income taxes this year, putting more money into many Americans' pockets as they continue to grapple with stubborn inflation.

At least 12 states, a majority led by Republicans, will reduce taxes for residents in some form this year, according to the Tax Foundation, a nonpartisan group that lobbies for lower taxes.

Here is a closer look at where state taxes are being reduced. READ MORE

RealMoneyBlog - Free daily/weekly email