2024 Blog Archives

2.28.24 - 'What happens in Venezuela, not New York'

Gold last traded at $2,033 an ounce. Silver at $22.43 an ounce.

Texas Senator Ted Cruz Launches New Legislation To Ban Central Bank Digital Currencies (CBDCs) -The Daily Hodl

As our long term readers know, we have been warning about the government's secret war on your cash for years. Lately, that war is not so secret. The government would love to be able to track every dime you spend; and be able to shut off your access to your money if they decide you are not spending it how they want you to.

Republican senator Ted Cruz is continuing to press for the US government to ban central bank digital currencies (CBDCs).

According to a new press release from Cruz (R-Texas), the Senator is introducing legislation to outright ban CBDCs.

According to the release, the legislation is a partisan effort between Sens. Bill Hagerty (R-Tenn.), Rick Scott (R-Fla.), Ted Budd (R-N.C.), and Mike Braun (R-Ind.).

Says Cruz ...

“The Biden administration salivates at the thought of infringing on our freedom and intruding on the privacy of citizens to surveil their personal spending habits, which is why Congress must clarify that the Federal Reserve has no authority to implement a CBDC. I’m proud to lead the fight in the Senate to restrict the Federal Reserve’s exploration of and attempt to introduce a CBDC to the American economy.”

The bill dubbed the CBDC Anti-Surveillance State Act, would prevent the federal government from issuing CBDCs either directly or through a third party. READ MORE

Kevin O'Leary calls out potential seizure of Trump's assets: ‘What happens in Venezuela, not New York’ -Fox Business

In the quest to take down Trump, some of his opponents don't seem to realize the greater consequences of their actions. This may seem like a victory for those who feel Trump deserves to be punished, but two separate victims of these actions are liberty and freedom. As is common in today's political landscape, the scorched earth campaign against Trump will come at a cost to the state of New York as industries leave the area and move their capital to safer states.

by Kendall Tietz

Investment guru Kevin O'Leary was sharply critical Monday on "Mornings with Maria" over the potential seizure of former President Trump's assets should he fail to pay the nine-figure fine in his civil fraud case, calling it akin to a situation in places like Venezuela.

The 2024 Republican frontrunner is currently on the hook for just over $354 million, with post-judgment interest accruing at nearly $112,000 per day. New York Attorney General Letitia James has vowed that if Trump fails to pay, the state will start seizing his assets.

As a businessman, investor and O'Leary Ventures Chairman, O'Leary said the move by the New York court has developers asking whether the fine penalty interest is commensurate with the act.

"Remember there is no money lost, there's no victim here, so essentially just under half a billion-dollar fine for a situation where no monies were lost and the harmed party, supposedly the banks, were fully paid back," he said. "We are wondering does this make sense, asking ourselves how long will it take for the appellate court to bring down to a what reasonable number might be, I have no idea what that is."

New York Judge Arthur Engoron ruled that Trump and the defendants were liable for "persistent and repeated fraud," "falsifying business records," "issuing false financial statements," "conspiracy to falsify false financial statements," "insurance fraud," and "conspiracy to commit insurance fraud." Trump's legal team has appealed the ruling.

In the meantime, while the case is being litigated, O'Leary said investors are not putting any new money into projects in New York, adding he is "very concerned" about the next step of seizing assets. READ MORE

Cereal For Dinner: As The Economy Implodes, The CEO Of Kellogg Is Trying To Convince Americans That Frosted Flakes And Froot Loops Are A Cheaper Alternative -The Economic Collapse

While the government is still trying to convince us that inflation is under control, households are turning to cereal for dinner to make ends meet. Sure, Gary Pilnick is also in the business of selling cereal, but he's seeing firsthand what consumers are buying to at least put something on the table for their families.

Would you eat Cheerios for dinner? What about Lucky Charms? Many years ago when I was a college student, I would often eat cereal instead of a normal meal in the evening. Needless to say, that wasn’t good for my health at all. But now “cereal for dinner” has become quite trendy. Food prices have soared in recent years and millions of Americans are trying to cut costs anywhere that they can. As the economy continues to implode and more consumers find themselves “under pressure”, the CEO of Kellogg thinks that he will be able to convince even more of us that choosing cereal for dinner is a great way to save money…

Gary Pilnick, CEO of WK Kellogg Co., told CNBC, “When we think about our consumer under pressure, … cereal … has always been quite affordable and it tends to be a great destination when consumers are under pressure.”

He said his company has been focusing on messaging “to reach the consumer where they are, so we’re advertising about cereal for dinner. If you think about the cost of cereal for a family versus what they might otherwise do that’s going to be much more affordable.

“The price of a bowl of cereal with milk and with fruit is less than a dollar so you can imagine where a consumer under pressure might find that to be a good place to go.”

Pilnick said when looking at company data, “breakfast cereal is the number one choice for in home consumption” with over 25% of cereal consumption being outside of breakfast. “Cereal for dinner is something that is probably more on trend now and we would expect to continue as that consumer is under pressure.” READ MORE

RealMoneyBlog - Free daily/weekly email

2.27.24 - Stock market increasingly 'casino-like'

Gold last traded at $2,030 an ounce. Silver at $22.45 an ounce.

EDITOR'S NOTE: There are two types of people in every market category: investors and speculators. Speculators may get rich quick, but their wealth can be vaporized just as rapidly. Investing for the long-term may not be the flashiest strategy but it is the most proven one. Mr. Buffett has always said that patience (and a balanced portfolio) is the path to greater wealth, and he would know. Long-term holds have a history of paying the greatest dividends.

Warren Buffett says the stock market is increasingly ‘casino-like’—and young investors need to remember this ‘one fact of financial life’ to avoid the mess - Fortune

by Will Daniel

Berkshire Hathaway CEO Warren Buffett shared a moving tribute to his fallen friend and right-hand man Charlie Munger in his annual shareholder letter over the weekend. The Oracle of Omaha lauded Munger as the “architect” of Berkshire’s success, eulogizing the “abominable no-man” by discussing some of his favorite whipping posts—including his comparison of the modern stock market to a casino.

“For whatever reasons, markets now exhibit far more casino-like behavior than they did when I was young,” Buffett wrote, adding that “though the stock market is massively larger than it was in our early years, today’s active participants are neither more emotionally stable nor better taught than when I was in school.”

Buffett’s words of caution were definitely a throwback to some of Munger’s favorite lines. Throughout his more than 75-year career, Munger argued that there were two types of people who buy shares in the stock market: investors and speculators. The investors—who are, above all, disciplined, hard-working, and thoughtful when buying assets—were always Munger’s people. But the speculators—those who seek nothing more than a quick buck without care for the intrinsic value of what they’re buying—well, Munger really didn’t like them much.

"They love gambling, and the trouble is, it's like taking heroin,” he said in an April 2022 interview with Berkshire Hathaway investment officer Todd Combs. “A certain percentage of people when they start just overdo it. It's that addictive. It's absolutely crazy, it's gone berserk. Civilization would have been a lot better without it." READ MORE

RealMoneyBlog - Free daily/weekly email

2.26.24 - America's ticking 'debt bomb'

Gold last traded at $2,031 an ounce. Silver at $22.52 an ounce.

EDITOR'S NOTE: America's out-of-control deficit spending is of concern to many, but those in the media tend to overlook this elephant in the room and instead praise the booming stock market. And yet, another billionaire believes this current trajectory is unsustainable. It's not hard to believe when it's projected that our interest payments on that debt will surpass defense and Medicare spending in 2024.

Billionaire Paul Tudor Jones warns of America's ticking ‘debt bomb’ — CBO projections suggest US interest spending is on track to surpass defense and Medicare in 2024 -AOL.com

by Jing Pan

The U.S. federal government’s rising debt is alarming to many, with legendary investor Paul Tudor Jones also expressing significant concern.

In a recent interview with CNBC, the billionaire and founder of Tudor Investment Corporation highlighted the looming threat of America's "debt bomb" potentially reaching a critical point.

Jones acknowledged the current strength of the U.S. economy but attributed it to the government's extensive borrowing and spending.

He cautioned about the repercussions of persistent deficit spending, stating, “We've got a 6%-7% budget deficit. We're fast-pouring consumption like crazy. It should be going gangbusters because we've got an economy on steroids, and it's unsustainable.”

The Commerce Department's advance estimate revealed that real GDP in the U.S. experienced a 3.3% annual growth rate in Q4 of 2023, surpassing the anticipated 2% increase set by economists.

The stock market has witnessed substantial growth, too, with the S&P 500 surging 28% over the past 12 months.

However, Jones warned that the burgeoning debt issue is bound to impact the market sooner or later, stating, “It could be this year, it could be next year. Productivity may mask and it might be three or four years from now but clearly, clearly we're on an unsustainable path." READ MORE

RealMoneyBlog - Free daily/weekly email

2.23.24 - Was America Just Attacked?

Gold last traded at $2,039 an ounce. Silver at $22.99 an ounce.

EDITOR'S NOTE: Was Thursday's communication disruption a fluke? Or was there a more sinister cause at the root? We will likely never know the truth but moments like these remind us how vulnerable we are, with other world powers having the capability to shut down our communications systems in a flash. That would affect every aspect of our lives, from our livelihood to our safety.

Was America Just Attacked? We Have Now Been Put On Notice That Our Communication Infrastructure Is Extremely Vulnerable -The Economic Collapse

What would we do if we suddenly couldn’t use the Internet or our phones any longer? For a lot of people, such a scenario would be unthinkable. In fact, it felt like the “world is ending” for many AT&T customers on Thursday. The disruption to AT&T’s network only lasted for a few hours, but it created quite a frenzy. If we are going to see this much panic for an outage that happens for just a few hours, what would our society look like if Internet and phone communication was down for days, weeks or even months?

Once the outage began, federal authorities moved very rapidly to determine whether it was a cyberattack or not…

Federal agencies are ‘urgently investigating’ whether the massive cellular outage that plagued Americans on Thursday was a cyberattack.

The Federal Federal Bureau of Investigation (FBI) and Department of Homeland Security (DHS) are on the hunt to track down what disrupted service AT&T, Verizon, T-Mobile and a dozen other cellular providers.

While the agencies have not shared details, a security expert told DailyMail.com that the outage has hallmarks of a hack. READ MORE

RealMoneyBlog - Free daily/weekly email

2.22.24 - Avg US Household Costs: Up $1019 per month

Gold last traded at $2,024 an ounce. Silver at $22.75 an ounce.

EDITOR'S NOTE: This headline is something you'll never hear the talking heads in DC admit. Instead, they keep manipulating the numbers to make our economy seem rosier than it is. Anyone who feeds a family or heats a home knows differently. US households are spending over $1,000 MORE per month in expenses than they were just three short years ago. And it's unlikely to improve given our current trajectory.

The Average U.S. Household Is Spending $1,019 More A Month Just To Buy The Same Goods And Services It Did 3 Years Ago -The Economic Collapse

It seems odd to talk about 2021 as “the good old days”, but the truth is that the cost of living was far lower just three short years ago. Earlier today, I did an interview with Sam Rohrer of Stand In The Gap Today in which we discussed how food prices have gotten wildly out of control. One example that I brought up was the fact that a Big Mac “value meal” can cost up to 18 dollars in some parts of the country. There is no way that I would shell out 18 bucks for a burger, some fries and a drink at McDonald’s. But this is the economic environment that we live in today.

Has your income gone up by more than a thousand dollars a month over the past three years?

If not, you are falling behind.

According to economist Mark Zandi, the average U.S. household is now shelling out an additional $1,019 a month just to purchase the exact same goods and services that it did three years ago…

The typical U.S. household needed to pay $213 more a month in January to purchase the same goods and services it did one year ago because of still-high inflation, according to new calculations from Moody’s Analytics chief economist Mark Zandi.

Americans are paying on average $605 more each month compared with the same time two years ago and $1,019 more compared with three years ago, before the inflation crisis began. READ MORE

RealMoneyBlog - Free daily/weekly email

2.21.24 - No soft landing

Gold last traded at $2,026 an ounce. Silver at $22.89 an ounce.

All Of The Elements Are In Place For An Economic Crisis Of Staggering Proportions -The Economic Collapse

Several sources - for several months - have suggested a crash is coming in 2024; but why now? The Fed can no longer contain the debt or bolster the economy with free money. The day of reckoning, for four years of reckless spending, may be nigh.

They were able to delay the U.S. economy’s day of reckoning, but they were not able to put it off indefinitely. During the pandemic, the Federal Reserve pumped trillions of dollars into the financial system and our politicians borrowed and spent trillions of dollars that we did not have. All of that money caused quite a bit of inflation, but it also created a “sugar rush” for the economy. In other words, economic conditions were substantially better than they would have been otherwise. Unfortunately, there will be a great price to be paid for such short-term thinking. From the federal government on down, our entire society is absolutely drowning in debt, and now it appears that our economic problems are about to go to the next level.

In early 2024, there are all sorts of signs that economic activity in the U.S. is really starting to slow down.

For example, we just learned that consumer spending “fell sharply” during the month of January…

Consumer spending fell sharply in January, presenting a potential early danger sign for the economy, the Commerce Department reported Thursday. READ MORE

No soft landing: The US economy is going to fall into recession in the middle of 2024, Citi's chief economist says -Yahoo! Finance

I think we all hoped for a soft landing - that our economy could recover once again; but that seems to be a fading dream given the reality of our current situation. Citi's chief economist is stating that by mid 2024, we will be in a recession. It may be time to buckle our financial seat belts.

by Aruni Soni

The soft-landing dream is over; instead, the US economy is headed for a recession in the middle of 2024, Citi says.

"There's this very powerful and seductive narrative around a soft landing, and we're just not seeing it in the data," Citi's chief US economist, Andrew Hollenhorst, said in a CNBC interview.

On the surface, the data looks great: The economy is benefiting from historically low unemployment, strong consumer spending, and robust GDP growth.

But there's more going on with the numbers than meets the eye.

"The question is where are these forward-looking indicators showing us that we're going to go," Hollenhorst said.

One place the economy is showing a weakness is the labor market. January had a blowout jobs report, adding 353,000 jobs to the economy. But Hollenhorst noted that if you scratch beneath the surface, the number of hours worked is falling, the number of full-time workers has decreased, and sectors such as the restaurant industry have stalled on hiring.

"That's the key to the economy — what happens in the labor market," Hollenhorst said. "If the unemployment rate stays low, people continue to spend, the economy holds up." But he added that the unemployment rate was expected to start rising, which would be "the sign that we're going to have a more material decline in the US economy." READ MORE

A US Bank Is Now Making Unexpected Account Closures -Frank Nez

2023 was filled with a lot of negative banking news and a lot of uncertain depositors. We saw bank closures, seizures of cash with no explanation, unexplained account closures, etc. It would appear that this trend is continuing into 2024.

A US bank is now making unexpected account closures after a fuming customer said the bank told her a reason was not required.

A customer warned others on social media not to open an account with Varo Bank after her account was abruptly closed without warning.

The fuming customer posted a video on social media, informing her audience of the bank’s suspicious activity, reports The-Sun.

In a video by TikTok user Nikki Nicole (@nikiyanicole85), she encouraged her audience to “get your money and run.”

“If you have Varo Bank, leave them alone,” she heeded.

“Get your money out your account. Close your accounts immediately.”

The user claimed the bank was closing their customer’s account without reason.

“[The bank will] send you emails saying that they don’t have to have a reason to close your account.” READ MORE

RealMoneyBlog - Free daily/weekly email

2.20.24 - Gold at $3,000 and oil at $100 by 2025?

Gold last traded at $2,024 an ounce. Silver at $23.00 an ounce.

EDITOR'S NOTE: It looks as though gold has a fantastic future ahead; this according to Citi. Citi analysts are weighing in on the yellow metal as they assess the current condition of the world and foresee some major gains on the horizon. They also see some aggressive gains being made in oil prices. The time to position in these areas is today!

Gold at $3,000 and oil at $100 by 2025? Citi analysts don’t rule it out -CNBC

by Lee Ying Shan

Gold prices could soar to $3,000 per ounce, and oil to $100 per barrel within the next 12 to 18 months subject to any one of three possible catalysts, according to Citi.

Gold, which is currently trading at $2,016, could surge by about 50%, if central banks sharply ramp up purchases of the yellow metal, a possible stagflation, or in case of a deep global recession, Aakash Doshi, Citi’s North America head of commodities research, told CNBC.

Central bank’s gold rush

“The most likely wildcard path to $3,000/oz gold is a rapid acceleration of an existing but slow-moving trend: de-dollarization across Emerging Markets central banks that in turn leads to a crisis of confidence in the U.S. dollar,” Citi analysts including Doshi wrote in a recent note.

That could double central bank’s gold purchases, challenging jewelry consumption as the largest driver of gold demand, Doshi elaborated.

Central banks’ gold purchases have “accelerated to record levels” in recent years, as they seek to diversify reserves and reduce credit risk, Citi said. China and Russian central banks are leading gold purchases, with India, Turkey, and Brazil, also increasing bullion buying.

The world’s central banks have sustained two successive years of more than 1,000 tons of net gold purchases, the World Gold Council reported in January.

“If that goes again [to] double very quickly to 2,000 tons, we think that would be actually very bullish for gold,” Doshi told CNBC via phone. READ MORE

RealMoneyBlog - Free daily/weekly email

2.16.24 - Bezos Unloads Another $2 Billion of Amazon Stock

Gold last traded at $2,013 an ounce. Silver at $23.39 an ounce.

EDITOR'S NOTE: Jeff Bezos is selling off a few billion dollars worth of his stock. This is all part of what is known as a planned and disclosed sale of stock. The question is, why? And why now? As the talks of an overvalued market on the verge of crash continue, insiders selling off their stock tend to signal that it's time to get out.

Bezos Unloads Another $2 Billion of Amazon Stock in Latest Sale -Yahoo! Finance

by Kristine Owram

(Bloomberg) -- Jeff Bezos has unloaded another 12 million shares of Amazon.com Inc. valued at $2 billion, bringing the total sold in the past week to more than $6 billion.

He sold the latest tranche on Tuesday and Wednesday, according to a filing. The sales are part of an already disclosed plan to dispose of as many as 50 million shares of the company he founded.

In total, he’s now sold about 36 million shares. Bezos hasn’t explained why he’s selling, but the timing of when he instituted the trading plan may provide a clue. He announced on Nov. 2 he was moving to Miami from the Seattle region and adopted a so-called 10(b)5-1 plan on Nov. 8.

The move to Florida has now likely saved Bezos about $430 million in taxes. Washington state recently implemented a 7% levy on capital gains, while Florida has no such tax. READ MORE

RealMoneyBlog - Free daily/weekly email

2.15.24 - Stock market flashing crash?

Gold last traded at $2,003 an ounce. Silver at $22.93 an ounce.

EDITOR'S NOTE: Watching the stock market lately feels like suspended reality. The bullish euphoria feels at odds with all that is happening around us. We've sadly seen this too many times before to not know how this story ends. Not with a whimper but with a bang; an abrupt and sharp one - just like 2000 and 2008.

The stock market is looking a lot like it did before the dot-com and '08 crashes, top economist says -Yahoo! Finance

by Jennifer Sor

he stock market is flashing the same warning signs of "speculative mania" that preceded the crashes of 2008 and 2000, according to economist David Rosenberg.

The Rosenberg Research president — who called the 2008 recession and who's been a vocal bear on Wall Street amid the latest market rally — pointed to the "raging bull market" that's taken off in stocks, with the S&P 500 surpassing the 5,000 mark for the first time ever last week.

The benchmark index has soared around 22% from its low in October last year, clearing the official threshold for a bull market. The index has also gained for the last five weeks and has been up for 14 of the last 15 weeks — a winning streak that hasn't been seen since the early 1970s.

But the stellar gains are a double-edged sword for investors, as the market looks dangerously similar to the environment prior to the dot-com and 2008 crashes, Rosenberg wrote in a note on Monday.

"With each passing day, this has the feel of being a cross between 1999 and 2007. It is a gigantic speculative price bubble across most risk assets, and while AI is real, so was the Internet, and so were the high-flying stocks that populated the Nifty Fifty era," he said, referring to the group of 50 large-cap stocks that dominated the stock market in the 60s and 70s, before falling by around 60%. READ MORE

RealMoneyBlog - Free daily/weekly email

2.14.24 - Beneath the Skin of CPI Inflation

Gold last traded at $1,991 an ounce. Silver at $22.34 an ounce.

BRICS: Will Mexico Join The Bloc and Abandon US Dollar in 2024? -watcher.guru

It would appear our neighbors to the South are considering making the same move as several other nations and joining the BRICS alliance. If Mexico were to make this move alone, it wouldn't be much of an impact; however a lot of financially smaller nations combined with several larger ones could be crippling to the US.

by Michael Grullon

One of the most speculated nations on the brink of joining BRICS and abandoning the US dollar in 2024 is Mexico. The nation has been working to strengthen ties with its North American counterpart United States, therefore, many doubt that the sudden jump to BRICS is in Mexico’s future.

Mexico was long rumored to have an interest in joining BRICS last year. However, before the alliance’s August summit, Mexican president Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador firmly stated that Mexico would not participate. Since that declaration, Mexico hasn’t appeared to change its mind on the alliance.

Both Mexico and the BRICS bloc would benefit if the country were to join the alliance in 2024. For example, The move could impact Mexico’s relations with other countries, including its neighboring the U.S. and Canada. The U.S. dollar’s global status will also be challenged if Mexico accepts the upcoming BRICS currency.

Mexico would have access to larger markets and greater bargaining power in international affairs. With the number of nations interested in and already involved with BRICS, Mexico’s economy will also have access to work in tandem with other top nations across the ocean. In addition, Mexico accepting BRICS currency for international trade could pave the way for Latin American countries to cut ties with the U.S. dollar. The BRICS currency could capture the Latin American markets making other nations end reliance on the U.S. dollar. READ MORE

Beneath the Skin of CPI Inflation, January: Powell’s Gonna Have a Cow when he Sees the Spike in “Core Services” Inflation-Wolf Street

Inflation continues to fight for top headlines. There was really no reason to believe inflation was waning; other than the empty assurances from overly optimistic Wall Street pundits and vote-seeking politicians.

by Wolf Richter for WOLF STREET

We’ll start with the “core services” CPI (services minus energy services) because this is so crucial, and because Powell keeps talking about it. We have been concerned here for months about the refusal of core services inflation to ease off, and we’ve found the acceleration in the fall last year “very disconcerting.” But that’s how inflation is – it tends to serve up nasty surprises. And now it did.

“Core services” CPI jumped by 0.66% in January from December, or by 8.2% annualized (blue). In this inflation cycle, only three months were worse (April, June, and September 2022). It includes housing, insurance, health care, subscriptions, etc., but not energy services. Core services is where consumers do the majority of their spending – and it’s re-heating from already hot levels.

The three-month moving average, which irons out the month-to-month squiggles, jumped by 0.50%, or by 6.2% annualized (red), the worst since March 2023. All this according to the CPI data released today by the Bureau of Labor Statistics. VIEW CHARTS AND READ MORE

Bank of America Warns Customers of Data Breach -Retail Wire

Another data breach in the banking system has occurred. Data breaches are not a new thing but they are most definitely increasing in intensity and frequency. Banks have traditionally been a safe place to keep our money, but that narrative seems to be rapidly changing.

by Dennis Limmer

Bank of America has alerted its customers to a data breach after one of its service providers, Infosys McCamish Systems (IMS), was hacked last year.

The breach exposed customers’ personally identifiable information (PII), including names, addresses, Social Security numbers, dates of birth, and financial details like account and credit card numbers. The Attorney General of Texas received these details.

Bank of America serves around 69 million clients across more than 3,800 retail financial centers and 15,000 ATMs in the United States, its territories, and over 35 countries.

When contacted for comment, a Bank of America spokesperson declined to provide additional details and directed inquiries to Infosys McCamish.

While the exact number of affected customers has not been disclosed by Bank of America, a breach notification letter filed with the Attorney General of Maine revealed that 57,028 people were directly impacted.

IMS experienced a cybersecurity event around Nov. 3, 2023, resulting in the unauthorized access of IMS systems and the non-availability of certain applications. On Nov. 24, 2023, IMS informed Bank of America that data related to deferred compensation plans may have been compromised, although Bank of America’s systems remained unaffected. READ MORE

RealMoneyBlog - Free daily/weekly email

2.13.24 - Will the silver shortage lead to higher prices?

Gold last traded at $1,992 an ounce. Silver at $22.12 an ounce.

EDITOR'S NOTE: The price of silver is poised for some explosive gains in 2024. Supply shortages are playing a major role in that prediction. Add to that, rising domestic and foreign financial pressures and these predictions may very soon be a reality.

Silver Set To Rise To $30 This Year, But Where Is Momentum? -Investing Haven

A recent physical silver market research report suggests silver to hit $30 in 2024. This seems a very low silver price target considering a silver supply deficit, bullish secular silver chart, silver relative to gold undervaluation.

Should the price of silver not be closer to $50 given the supply deficit?

The Silver Institute released its latest physical silver market report, about a week ago.

In summary, while silver demand is forecasted to remain robust, supply is expected to increase slightly, leading to a physical silver market shortage.

Demand Forecast: Global silver demand is projected to reach 1.2 billion ounces in 2024, potentially the second-highest level ever recorded. This growth is driven by stronger industrial offtake and is expected to hit a new annual high, propelled by increased industrial end-uses and a recovery in jewelry and silverware demand. READ MORE

RealMoneyBlog - Free daily/weekly email

2.12.24 - Gold Forecasted To Reach Fresh All-time High

Gold last traded at $2,020 an ounce. Silver at $22.69 an ounce.

EDITOR'S NOTE: Last week we saw a 2024 gold price prediction of $2,200. This analyst sees an even greater high of $2,250. Some have suggested we will see $3,000 gold this year. Only time will tell, but what nearly all of these predictions have in common is their reasoning for a jump; market turmoil and ever-increasing geopolitical concerns.

Gold Forecasted To Reach Fresh All-time High of $2,250 -watcher.guru

by Vinod Dsouza

Gold prices remain on a slippery slope as the XAU/USD charts are on a downward spiral this month in February 2024. The price of gold dipped from a high of $2,100 this year and is now hovering around the $2,240 level. It is now facing strong resistance at this level. The precious metal dipped after the US dollar outperformed all leading currencies and came out on top.

The US dollar index (DXY) is now at 104 and steadily climbed from a low of 101.80 this year. A stronger US dollar dimmed the lights for gold making it to head south in the charts for two weeks. Read here to know how the US dollar will fare this year in 2024.

Despite the market turmoil, commodities are expected to grow this year in 2024. Leading commodity analysts remain bullish and are confident that the markets will recover after Q2 this year. The dip is now a good time to accumulate and wait to create profits during the second half of 2024. Historically, gold has always delivered a positive monthly average return during on-hold interest rate periods by the Federal Reserve.

The Feds paused the interest rate hike for the fourth time in a row which could lead gold prices to recover. Naveen Mathur, the Director of Commodities at Anand Rathi forecasted that gold prices will shine from Q2 of this year. Moving ahead, he estimated that gold prices have a chance of reaching fresh all-time highs and could hit $2,250 in 2024. READ MORE

RealMoneyBlog - Free daily/weekly email

2.9.24 - Even Better Than Goldilocks!

Gold last traded at $2,024 an ounce. Silver at $22.58 an ounce.

EDITOR'S NOTE: We have written often on the mismatch in what we hear about the health of the economy versus what we all feel in our own households or see with our own eyes in our communities. Mr. Maher of Daily Reckoning breaks this down in such a succinct and humorous way. As he states so eloquently within, "the greatest lies harbor truthful kernels".

Even Better Than Goldilocks! -Daily Reckoning

by Brian Maher

We stand before the gates of Elysium. Paradise is in view.

Here are some recent headlines:

“U.S. Labor Market Sizzles With Blowout Job Growth, Solid Wage Gains”…

“Another Shockingly Good Jobs Report Shows America’s Economy Is Booming”…

“The U.S. Didn’t Just Avoid a Recession — It’s Adding Hundreds of Thousands of New Jobs”…

“The U.S. Economy Isn’t ‘Goldilocks,’ It’s Even Better.”

The list runs and runs. All are in unity — the United States economy is hale… and the United States economy is hearty.

Is it?

Not so Fast

Your editor is cursed with a distrustful nature.

It is, in certain regards, excessive — perhaps even harmful.

Who else inspects his own mother’s cooking for cyanide lacing?

This profound distrust is a bias of course. Yet hard experience with government statistics fortifies and validates it.

And so we distrust the latest economic data.

The numbers are not necessarily lies. They are worse than lies — they are partial truths.

And the greatest lies harbor truthful kernels. The propagandist knows it well. And he makes high use of it. READ MORE

RealMoneyBlog - Free daily/weekly email

2.8.24 - How far has the US fallen?

Gold last traded at $2,032 an ounce. Silver at $22.57 an ounce.

EDITOR'S NOTE: There is no question that the world around us has changed drastically since 2020, both fiscally and socially. One of the most unique aspects of the American way of life is the tolerances that this nation affords to people of all backgrounds. But what used to be a dream has turned into a nightmare, as some abuse these liberties.

12 Absolutely Insane Examples That Show Just How Far The US Has Fallen -ZeroHedge

Authored by Michael Snyder via The End of The American Dream blog

When I was young, I often wondered what it must have been like to live during the fall of the Roman Empire. Unfortunately, now I have a pretty good idea. Just like the Roman Empire, the United States is falling. Every day our decline gets even more pronounced, and you can see evidence of this all around us. Virtually all of our major institutions are crumbling, and virtually all of our most critical systems are failing.

We tend to blame our problems on our politicians, but the truth is that the rot that is rapidly spreading throughout our society runs a lot deeper than that.

Millions upon millions of us have completely rejected the values that this nation was founded upon, and so now we have a giant mess on our hands.

The following are 12 absolutely insane examples that show just how far the U.S. has fallen…READ MORE

RealMoneyBlog - Free daily/weekly email

2.7.24 - Delinquency Rates Are Spiking

Gold last traded at $2,036 an ounce. Silver at $22.43 an ounce.

New York Community Bancorp Collapse Nears 27-Year-Lows After 'Talks With Regulator' Revealed -Zerohedge

Another bank - and its less than solid balance sheet - is in the news. This time it's New York Community Bancorp. As many have warned, the regional banking crisis is far from over, and this bank's fall from grace has some people questioning the timing.

"That's a nice regional bank lender you got there... be a shame if anything happened to it..."

We have warned for months - as regional bank shares soared back from SVB crisis lows - that this small bank balance sheet crisis was far from over... and worse still the 'big banks' have money to burn with excess reserves (to use, for example, to help the FDIC clean up some small bank issues)...

Last week we highlighted the dominoes had started falling in regionals, and the initial domino - New York Community Bancorp - is back in the cross-hairs as Bloomberg reports that, according to people with direct knowledge of the matter, mounting pressure from a top US watchdog led to the bank's surprise decision to slash its dividend and stockpile cash in case commercial real estate loans go bad.

The drastic actions - which prompted a collapse in the bank's shares - followed behind-the-scenes conversations with officials from the Office of the Comptroller of the Currency, the people said.

Now, far be it from us to speculate but could a quiet call have been made to prompt regulators to suddenly pay attention? VIEW CHARTS AND READ MORE

Delinquency Rates Are Spiking! Has The Final Meltdown Of The U.S. Consumer Now Begun? -The Economic Collapse

Delinquency rates are spiking here in the US. Is this the "Final Meltdown of the US Consumer"? Is this headline doom and gloom, or simply an accurate description of what is taking place?

According to the New York Fed, total household debt in the United States increased by 212 billion dollars during the fourth quarter of 2023. It is now sitting at a grand total of 17.5 trillion dollars. I suppose the good news is that we aren’t 34 trillion dollars in debt like the federal government is. But 17.5 trillion dollars is still really bad, and it is far more than U.S. households can handle. Unsurprisingly, delinquency rates have started to spike, and I fully expect this trend to intensify in the months ahead.

Let’s start by taking a look at credit card debt. During the fourth quarter, it hit a brand new all-time record high of 1.13 trillion dollars…

Americans are increasingly turning to their credit cards to cover everyday expenses, with debt hitting a new record high at the end of December, according to a New York Federal Reserve report published Tuesday.

In the three-month period from October to December, total credit card debt surged to $1.13 trillion, an increase of $50 billion, or 4.6% from the previous quarter, according to the report. It marks the highest level on record in Fed data dating back to 2003 and the ninth consecutive annual increase.

The average rate of interest on credit card balances is now way above 20 percent, and so it has been very foolish of us to run up so much credit card debt.

And now millions of Americans are falling behind on their payments. READ MORE

Silver set for a ‘terrific year’ and could outperform gold to hit a 10-year high -CNBC

On a positive note, gold and silver may be getting ready to duke it out for the top performer spot this year. Both of the metals have established a very strong value base over the last few years and have all the fundamentals in place to potentially make it a year for the record books.

by Lee Ying Shan

This could be a banner year for silver, with prices potentially hitting a decade-high.

Global silver demand is forecast to reach 1.2 billion ounces in 2024, which would mark the second-highest level on record, the Silver Institute said in a recent report.

“Stronger industrial offtake is a principal catalyst for the rising global demand for the white metal, and the sector should hit a new annual high this year,” said the institute, a nonprofit international association comprising various members across the silver industry. Silver is used primarily for industrial purposes and commonly incorporated in the manufacturing of automobiles, solar panels, jewelry and electronics.

“We think silver will have a terrific year, especially in terms of demand,” Michael DiRienzo, executive director of the Silver Institute told CNBC. He expects silver prices to reach $30 per ounce, which would be a 10-year high, according to data from LSEG. READ MORE

RealMoneyBlog - Free daily/weekly email

2.6.24 - Gold prices to hit $2,200

Gold last traded at $2,036 an ounce. Silver at $22.43 an ounce.

EDITOR'S NOTE: Here's another positive performance projection for gold in 2024, this one by UBS. It is on the low side compared to several others, but it is suggesting a nearly 10% increase on the year. They also see some very good things happening with silver prices.

Gold prices to hit $2,200 and a ‘dramatic’ outperformance awaits silver in 2024, says UBS -CNBC

by Lee Ying Shan

Gold and silver are expected to climb further in 2024 on expectations that the U.S. Federal Reserve will start cutting interest rates, UBS forecasts.

“We are expecting gold to be pushed higher by a Fed easing. Also this comes with a weaker dollar” said the investment bank’s precious metals strategist Joni Teves, who expects the metal to hit $2,200 per ounce by the end of the year.

Gold prices tend to have an inverse relationship with interest rates. As interest rates dip, gold becomes more appealing compared to alternative investments like bonds, which would yield weaker returns in a low interest rate environment.

In turn, lower rates weaken the dollar, making gold cheaper for international buyers, driving up demand.

While there is still much uncertainty on the timing and extent of rate cuts, UBS maintained its expectations for the Federal Reserve to ease policy. Last week, the Fed announced its decision to leave rates unchanged in January, on top of shooting down hopes of a rate cut in March.

The bullion’s appeal as a safe haven asset has risen since Israel’s war with Hamas began on Oct. 7, which contributed to gold prices notching an all-time high of $2,100 an ounce last month.

“We do think investors will start to build allocations to gold in an environment where there is a lot of macro uncertainty [and] geopolitical risks,” said Teves.

Prospects for gold’s “poorer cousin” are also optimistic, with silver on course to “really, really shine.” READ MORE

RealMoneyBlog - Free daily/weekly email

2.5.24 - Theater Of The Absurd

Gold last traded at $2,024 an ounce. Silver at $22.35 an ounce.

EDITOR'S NOTE: Theater of the Absurd ... the perfect title to describe our economy and the interpretations of the data we are being given. As this article so perfectly states, we can all see and feel the reality of what is happening; yet, to listen to the government - as well as some of the talking heads out there - we should feel as if we are thriving. It's just not the truth.

Theater Of The Absurd -The Economic Collapse

They are taking gaslighting to a whole new level in 2024. The raw, unadjusted figures that the Bureau of Labor Statistics just released say that the U.S. economy lost more than 2.6 million jobs last month. That is what actually happened. But after they massaged that number with all sorts of “assumptions” and “adjustments”, it magically turned into a gain of 353,000 jobs. Amazingly, even Fox Business is attempting to claim that this adjusted number shows “the resilience of the labor market”…

U.S. job growth unexpectedly surged in January, underscoring the resilience of the labor market even in the face of high interest rates and stubborn inflation.

Employers added 353,000 jobs in January, the Labor Department said in its monthly payroll report released Friday, easily topping the 180,000 gain forecast by Refinitiv economists. The unemployment rate held steady at 3.7%, against expectations for a slight increase.

Give me a break.

I am so disappointed in Fox Business.

And they actually interviewed an “expert” that was so excited about “how widespread the hiring has become”… READ MORE

RealMoneyBlog - Free daily/weekly email

2.2.24 - Institutional Investors Dump Stocks At Record Pace

Gold last traded at $2,037 an ounce. Silver at $22.69 an ounce.

EDITOR'S NOTE: Institutions are dumping equities. Could this be a sign of trouble ahead? There have been rumblings of a stock market correction for a while now and institutions dumping equities could be just the trigger to do it.

Institutional Investors Dump U.S. Stocks At Record Pace -watcher.guru

by Vinod Dsouza

Institutional investors are fleeing the U.S. stock markets at a record pace with the second-highest sell-offs since 2008. This is the second-biggest weekly outflow in U.S. stocks since the market crash that triggered a recession in 2008. The larger U.S. stocks dump from institutional clients came from the technology, securities, and staples sectors. The tech industry is experiencing large-scale job cuts with Microsoft and other giants firing their staff.

“Clients were net sellers of U.S. equities for the first time in three weeks,” reported Bank of America. The banks’ analysts Jill Carey Hall, Nicolas Woods, and Savita Subramanian highlighted that institutional clients primarily ignited the selling.

The recent data from Bank of America also shows that institutional investors did not limit their exit from U.S. stocks alone. Large-scale sell-offs were also triggered in mutual funds and pension funds. The institutional clients were also from insurance companies, and banks across the U.S.

While the capitalists jumped ship, average investors are worried, thinking that institutions know something that the normal investors don’t. The sell-offs come at a time when several financial analysts are ringing the warning bells of an upcoming recession. This puts the U.S. stocks in a spot where another round of sell-offs could deeply hurt the equities market.

The ripple effect could also hit the worldwide markets as the U.S. equity sector is closely knitted globally. A slump in U.S. stocks reflects negatively on the global markets making almost all equities turn red. However, the only beneficiary in this development will be gold as prices for the precious metal could skyrocket. READ MORE

2.1.24 - The Death Spiral of Government Debt

Gold last traded at $2,055 an ounce. Silver at $23.20 an ounce.

EDITOR'S NOTE: Starwood Capital CEO Barry Sternlicht said this week that the Federal Reserve has left a "serious mess" in capital markets and the real estate market. Nassim Nicholas Taleb shares this sentiment and sadly believes it will take a miracle to save us. Debt will be our demise, debt the government created.

‘Black Swan’ author Nassim Taleb, who correctly called the 2008 financial crisis, says the U.S. is in a ‘death spiral’ over government debt -Yahoo! Finance

by Eleanor Pringle

It's been dubbed the "most predictable crisis" facing the U.S. economy, but an expert has warned it will take a "miracle" to save America from its national debt problem.

Nassim Nicholas Taleb, the author of best-selling book The Black Swan, correctly predicted the 2008 financial crash but said "gloomy" times ahead for the U.S. economy are far more easy to spot.

Taleb, who advises Miami-based hedge fund Universa Investments, told an event hosted by the organization this week that national debt is a "white swan," a risk that's more probable than an unpredictable "black swan" event.

“So long as you have Congress keep extending the debt limit and doing deals because they’re afraid of the consequences of doing the right thing, that’s the political structure of the political system, eventually you’re going to have a debt spiral,” he explained, per Bloomberg. “And a debt spiral is like a death spiral.”

Currently the American national debt stands at $34.14 trillion—about $100,000 for every person in the U.S.—with the debt ceiling currently suspended until 2025 courtesy of a deal passed in the summer of 2023. READ MORE

RealMoneyBlog - Free daily/weekly email

1.31.24 - Trump Vows to Stop Biden Bucks

Gold last traded at $2,036 an ounce. Silver at $22.90 an ounce.

Jamie Dimon says Washington faces a global market ‘rebellion’ over record U.S. debt: ‘It is a cliff…we’re going 60 mph towards it’ -Yahoo! Finance

Love him or hate him, Jamie Dimon has always been a pretty good predictor of what's to come. He's been warning us for quite some time now about the US debt and how it will impact the global economy, not just domestic markets. He believes the financial cliff is 10 years out. This may seem far away but markets will continue to erode as we near the precipice. Prepare yourself now.

by Eleanor Pringle

The global economy is approaching the point of no return courtesy of mounting government debt, believes JPMorgan Chase CEO Jamie Dimon, and it will lead to a massive falling-out of markets and federal institutions.

Currently the American national debt stands at $34.14 trillion—about $100,000 for every person in the U.S.—with the debt ceiling currently suspended until 2025 courtesy of a deal passed in the summer of 2023.

And although some of the shorter-term economic signals are flashing green—inflation is coming down, the Fed may by eyeing rate cuts, and employment is staying stable—the boss of America's biggest bank isn't convinced there isn't a major red flag up ahead.

Speaking on a panel alongside former Speaker of the House Paul Ryan at the Bipartisan Policy Center last week, Dimon said the American government is facing a "hockey stick" effect when it comes to government debt.

He drew on the comparison of the 1980s for context, explaining that in 1982 unemployment was at around 10% while the stock market had sat stagnant for 15 to 20 years. Even with the Vietnam War, America's debt-to-GDP ratio was around 35%, Dimon said, whereas today it sits at 100%.

"Back then the deficit during a recession—you do spend money in a recession—was 4% or 5%; today it's 6.5% in a boom time," Dimon continued. READ MORE

Trump Vows to Stop Biden Bucks - Daily Reckoning

The implementation of a Central Bank Digital Currency would be devastating to our freedom. Several financial experts have warned of the dangers of a CBDC, but few in the mainstream media have covered this. The government already requires banks to report certain spending but with a central back digital currency, they wouldn't need to report. The government would already be able to shut down access to your own money if they decided you were spending it the way they deemed appropriate.

by James Rickards

At a recent New Hampshire campaign rally, Donald Trump reiterated what he’s been saying for months: that central bank digital currencies (CBDCs) are dangerous and he would never allow one if elected:

Tonight, I am also making another promise to protect Americans from government tyranny. As your president, I will never allow the creation of a central bank digital currency…

Such a currency would give… our federal government, the absolute control over your money. They could take your money. You wouldn’t even know it was gone. This would be a dangerous threat to freedom.

Welcome aboard, Mr. President.

If you’ve been following my writings, you know that I’ve been sounding the alarm about what I call Biden Bucks for nearly two years. I’ve warned about Joe Biden’s plan to control your money and take away your privacy rights completely.

I like to think that someone brought my warnings to Donald Trump’s attention since I’ve been one of very few people to outline the dangers that Biden Bucks pose to Americans’ freedom. I’d be very happy if I was at least partially responsible for stopping them. READ MORE

Famed Analyst Richard Bove Says US Dollar Is Finished as World's Reserve Currency — Expects China to Overtake US Economy -Bitcoin.com

Is the dollar finished? Richard Bove believes it is. Read on to see why he believes his fellow analysts won't sound the same alarm.

by Kevin Helms

Renowned financial analyst with over 54 years of experience, Richard Bove, has warned that the U.S. dollar is finished as the world’s reserve currency, cautioning that China will overtake the U.S. economy. He warned that the offshoring of American manufacturing poses a significant threat to the financial sector and the U.S. dollar.

Bove shared his dire outlook for the U.S. economy in an interview with the New York Times on Saturday. The 83-year-old worked as a financial analyst for 54 years at 17 brokerage firms; he officially announced his retirement last week. Voicing concerns about the future of the U.S. dollar, he said: "The dollar is finished as the world’s reserve currency."

In addition, Bove predicted that China will overtake the U.S. economy. He emphasized that no other analysts will make a similar statement because they are “monks praying to money,” choosing not to critique the mainstream financial system that employs them. He added that many analysts are rewarded for making unique but inconsequential and “arcane” statements.

Bove has warned about the global rise of the Chinese yuan as a threat to the U.S. dollar for quite some time. In January 2019, he explained that “China and its allies are working diligently to establish a multilateral world.” He noted, “The United States is creating a financial vacuum into which the yuan is creeping,” adding: “The biggest banks in the world are now headquartered in China.” READ MORE

RealMoneyBlog - Free daily/weekly email

1.30.24 - BofA closing 40 branches by March

Gold last traded at $2,036 an ounce. Silver at $23.18 an ounce.

EDITOR'S NOTE: Banks will be leaving a city near you soon; due to the continued wave of branch closures across the country. As banking locations continue to dwindle, coupled with some banks who have flat out closed up shop, it's the customers who are left with the stress. Is your bank still safe?

A Massive Bank Is Now Closing 40 Branches By March-Frank Nez

by Frank Nez

A massive bank is now closing 40 branches by March, according to the latest data from the Office of the Comptroller of the Currency.

Bank of America has released a new list of branches set to close this year, including 40 locations nationwide during the first quarter of 2024.

In 2023, Bank of America closed down more than a hundred branches and has already scheduled the closure of several more.

This information was reported by the Office of the Comptroller of Currency (OCC), which requires banks to report all closures to the federal agency.

The bank is adjusting to the reduced demand for in-person services, which has led to the closure of some branches and the opening of others, reports AS. READ MORE

RealMoneyBlog - Free daily/weekly email

1.29.24 - Russia Building New Payment System Without US Dollar

Gold last traded at $2,031 an ounce. Silver at $23.18 an ounce.

EDITOR'S NOTE: The currency movement referred to as BRICS continues to pick up momentum. Russia is now looking to establish a payment system through this effort, which many experts believe will be a devastating blow to the US dollar. Let us hope it's not a death blow.

BRICS: Russia Building New Payment System Without U.S. Dollar -watcher.guru

by Vinod Dsouza

BRICS member Russia confirmed on Sunday that Kremlin is working towards building a new payment system without incorporating the U.S. dollar. Russia aims to build a new payment mechanism to settle cross-border transactions with BRICS and other developing countries bypassing the US dollar. The decision to build a new payment system comes after the U.S. pressed sanctions on Russia for invading Ukraine.

If Russia succeeds in building a new payment system asking BRICS and other countries to pay in local currencies, the U.S. dollar will be the hardest hit currency. Read here to know how many sectors in the U.S. will be affected if BRICS ditches the dollar for trade.

Kremlin spokesperson Dmitry Peskov confirmed that Russia is advancing towards building a new payment mechanism without the U.S. dollar. He also called the traditional world order dominated by the U.S. dollar system “unreliable, false, and dangerous”.

“Russia is building a new system of economic connections because the previous system turned out to be unreliable, false, and dangerous. Russia is looking for an opportunity to develop alternatives,” confirmed Peskov to MenaFN.

However, Peskov did not specify the nature of the new payment mechanism and its scalability. He did not provide insights into the new payment system approved by BRICS to challenge the U.S. dollar. Further details about the payment network are kept under wraps and Russia is unwilling to provide insights. READ MORE

RealMoneyBlog - Free daily/weekly email

1.26.24 - Wondrous Tales and Fantastic Lies

Gold last traded at $2,018 an ounce. Silver at $22.81 an ounce.

EDITOR'S NOTE: We are starting to feel like a broken record in this space but these latest government numbers - as reported by the mainstream media - are bordering on comical; if you can bring yourself to laugh at something so scandalous. As the author concludes toward the end of this piece, "There are lies, damn lies and statistics, as runs the common expression. We request that government merely confine itself to lies and to damned lies." Wouldn't that be nice?

"Blistering!" - Daily Reckoning

by Brian Maher

CNBC:

"The U.S. economy grew at [a] blistering 3.3% pace in Q4 while inflation pulled back."

CNBC cites the latest economic data, issuing this morning from the Department of Commerce.

Continues CNBC:

The economy grew at a much more rapid pace than expected while inflation eased in the final three months of 2023, as the U.S. easily skirted a recession that many forecasters had thought was inevitable, the Commerce Department reported Thursday.

Gross domestic product, a measure of all the goods and services produced, increased at a 3.3% annualized rate in the fourth quarter of 2023, according to data adjusted seasonally and for inflation.

That compared with the Wall Street consensus estimate for a gain of 2% in the final three months of the year. The third quarter grew at a 4.9% pace.

Just so. We nonetheless remain skeptical of today’s economic news.

We remind you that numbers can conceal more than they reveal. They often spin wondrous tales… and tell fantastic lies.

Like a Hollywood movie set… a false set of teeth… or a toupee… the numbers are not often as they appear.

Let us then expose the numbers to sunlight. Let us haul them up for interrogation. READ MORE

RealMoneyBlog - Free daily/weekly email

11.29.23 - Bad Omens Are Everywhere

Gold last traded at $2,048 an ounce. Silver at $25.11 an ounce.

The Entire Banking System Is Shaking -Economic Collapse Blog

On Monday, we mentioned this news about bank branches closing. Of course, the banks cite the rise of digital banking as their reason for closure but is there a bleaker, financial motivation for these cost-cutting moves?

by Michael Snyder

Why are big banks suddenly rushing to shut down so many local branches all over the nation? As I have discussed in previous articles, U.S. banks are currently sitting on hundreds of billions of dollars in unrealized losses. When financial institutions get into trouble, they start getting really tight with their money and they start cutting costs. In addition to laying off workers, our banks have been cutting costs by permanently closing local branches. For example, between November 12th and November 18th, the sixth largest bank in the United States initiated filings to close 19 more local branches…

America’s sixth-largest bank, PNC, has confirmed the closure of 19 more branches nationwide, following a staggering 203 branch closures earlier this year. This decision, aligning with the bank’s shift towards digital banking, is raising concerns among customers who prefer traditional banking methods.

Scheduled for February 2024, the closures will primarily impact ​Pennsylvania, where the majority of branches marked for closure are located. However, several branches in other states, including ​Illinois, ​Texas, Alabama, New Jersey, Ohio, Florida, and Indiana, will also be shutting their doors, leaving customers in these regions with limited access to in-person banking services, The Sun reported. READ MORE

Bad Omens Are Everywhere -Daily Reckoning

Mr. Rickards always paints a very clear picture of the state of our economy. He has a talent for cutting through the noise and presenting the economic reality. Unfortunately, it's not good news, despite what the pundits keep preaching. Read on to see his take ...

by James Rickards

Analysts note that U.S. inflation is coming down and that interest rates are coming down at the same time.

Many assume this is good news for the economy and especially good news for stocks. But that superficial analysis does not hold up to scrutiny.

With regard to interest rates, it is true that the yield-to-maturity on 10-year Treasury notes has dropped from 5.0% to 4.33% in recent weeks.

But the drop in rates does not reflect a prosperous economy or a more benign environment for borrowers. It reflects a U.S. economy that is entering a recession, possibly a severe one.

Unemployment will rise, hiring will slow and even those with jobs will become more cautious as they see friends, neighbors and co-workers head to the unemployment office.

In this kind of environment, consumers reflexively spend less and save more even if their jobs seem secure. READ MORE

U.S. consumer credit card debt at highest levels ever, ahead of the holidays -WBIR NBC

This news may not seem all that concerning or surprising but consumer spending (read: consumer confidence) is a very important barometer of the health of the economy overall. With the pandemic bump in savings all but gone for most consumers, what will this holiday season hold?

by Lauren Davis

Overall, U.S. consumers were carrying around $1.1 trillion in credit card debt at the end of the third quarter of 2023, heading into the holidays.

The Federal Reserve Bank of New York has been tracking credit card debt since 1999. Credit card debt in the U.S. is at the highest level it's been since then, with the total amount of debt in the third quarter of 2023 reaching around $1.08 trillion dollars.

"It's harder now than it has been, because interest rates are historically high just due to the economic climate that we're in right now," said Tim Young, a wealth advisor for the Tennessee Valley Asset Management Partners.

Young said it may tempting for people to spend more with credit cards during the holidays, but it isn't necessarily the best idea.

"I think a lot of people have had some fear and some concern as of late, with just things that are going on, and they run to something like buying Christmas presents to make up for that," said Young. "Which is totally understandable. I can see how, you know, especially if you've got kids that can be something that's a priority for you. But when it comes to managing your finances, I think it's important to think long-term beyond just that next shiny thing that you can get." READ MORE

RealMoneyBlog - Free daily/weekly email

1.25.24 - Living On The Edge Of Disaster?

Gold last traded at $2,017 an ounce. Silver at $22.82 an ounce.

EDITOR'S NOTE: Most Americans are now acquiring debt just to pay for living expenses and many wouldn't be able to handle a $500 emergency. To add insult to injury, layoffs are up 98% - yes, you read that right, 98%. According the the government, unemployment is low and inflation is falling too. Who's buying it?

Most Americans Are Literally Living On The Edge Of Disaster -The Economic Collapse

There is a tremendous disconnect between the economic numbers that the government is giving us and what most Americans are personally experiencing on a daily basis. The government says that inflation is low, but the cost of living just continues to spiral out of control. The government says that unemployment is low, but Challenger, Gray & Christmas says that the number of layoffs in the U.S. was up 98 percent last year. The government says that the economic outlook for 2024 is positive, but companies all over America are acting as if extremely hard times are ahead. So who are we supposed to believe?

Personally, I trust numbers that come from private sources far more than numbers that come from government sources.

For example, a survey that was just conducted by Bankrate discovered that 56 percent of all U.S. adults do not have enough money to handle an unexpected expense of $1,000…

A majority of Americans say a $1,000 emergency expense would be too great of a hit to their savings and that they could not afford it, according to new data released Wednesday.

Bankrate’s latest survey results found 56% of U.S. adults lack the emergency funds to handle a $1,000 unexpected expense and one-third (35%) said they would have to borrow the money somehow to pay for it. READ MORE

RealMoneyBlog - Free daily/weekly email

1.24.24 - Inflation Gives Fed the Finger

Gold last traded at $2,012 an ounce. Silver at $22.67 an ounce.

Billionaire CEO sees $1 trillion in commercial real estate defaults coming for ‘very, very ugly market’ over next 2 years -Yahoo! Finance

In a time when all markets are teetering on a precipice, the commercial real estate market doesn't get as much attention as it should. It's one that essentially has no hope of recovery, or even a soft landing. And its crash will have far-reaching consequences.

by Will Daniel

Rising interest rates, the remote work trend, and the dominance of e-commerce sellers have combined to hammer the commercial real estate market over the past few years. Sky-high office and retail space vacancies are plaguing owners in this new environment, rents are plummeting, and borrowing costs have soared. As a result, U.S. commercial real estate prices have fallen 11% since the Federal Reserve began raising interest rates in March 2022, the IMF reported last week, the worst decline in over 50 years.

The outlook for the sector is now so bleak that Cantor Fitzgerald’s billionaire chairman and CEO Howard Lutnick is predicting between $700 billion to $1 trillion of defaults over the next two years unless interest rates fall quickly—and he sees that as unlikely.

“I think it’s going to be a very, very ugly market in owning real estate over the next 18 months, two years,” Lutnick told Fox Business last week, arguing that there’s going to be a “generational change” in real estate.

To his point, there’s an estimated $1.2 trillion in commercial real estate debt maturing by the end of 2025, according to the Mortgage Bankers Association, and 25% of that debt is in the hands of struggling office and retail space operators. With interest rates rising more than 5 percentage points in the past two years, that’s a recipe for defaults. READ MORE

Inflation Gives Fed the Finger -Daily Reckoning

The government is still hanging their hat on the hope that the average American hasn't noticed that real inflation is wildly out of control. The talking heads always point to core inflation (which strips out basic living costs) to paint a rosier picture; and now they have had to turn to super-core inflation to get the numbers to look good. As Mr. Rickards so succinctly puts it in regards to the super-core inflation numbers falling ... "That’s good news for people who don’t eat or drive and live in a tent."

by James Rickards

Is inflation over? Actually, no. And it may be getting worse.

Let’s begin the analysis with the latest data. Last Friday, the Bureau of Labor Statistics reported that inflation (as measured by the Consumer Price Index, CPI, on a year-over-year basis) was 3.4%.

That’s practically the Federal Reserve’s worst nightmare.

Here’s why: The Fed stopped raising interest rates last July. At that time, they set the target policy rate for fed funds at 5.50%. Despite some internal debate, there have been no further rate hikes in the last three meetings.

In the December 2023 meeting, Fed Chair Jay Powell more or less confirmed that the Fed had reached what they call the “terminal rate.” The terminal rate is defined as a rate that’s high enough to bring inflation down on its own without further rate hikes.

This belief put the Fed on pause and immediately started speculation about the “pivot” to rate cuts in the near future. READ MORE

The Fed's big miss on inflation has doomed the US to recession this year, top economist says -Yahoo! Finance

The Fed missed the mark on inflation utterly and completely, but they still want us to believe them when they say they can engineer a soft landing. The US is headed for recession, now is the time to prepare your portfolio.

by Aruni Soni

The US may have tiptoed around a recession last year, but it won't be so lucky in 2024, according to the top economist at the hedge fund Brevan Howard.

That's because monetary policy remains way too tight to nail the "Sully Sullenberger soft landing of all soft landings," Jason Cummins said in Bloomberg's "Odd Lots" podcast.

"Monetary policy now is as tight as it has ever been on the precipice of a recession," he said, barring an exception in 1984.

The central bank hiked interest rates at the fastest pace in four decades, hitching rates up from near-zero levels in March 2022 all the way to 5.25%-5.5% in July 2023.

And that's weighing down the economy, Cummins warned, pointing out that household survey data shows that the number of people moving into the labor force into a job has dropped by a record amount.

"A very careful look at the labor market now will suggest that hiring has just ground to a halt," he said. "So if it weren't for participation falling back by a huge amount, three-tenths in the last report, the unemployment rate would've gone up by three tenths to 4%."

The problem is that the Fed badly misread how long high inflation would linger, prompting it to raise rates much more aggressively than needed. READ MORE

RealMoneyBlog - Free daily/weekly email

1.23.24 - A 10% spike for gold

Gold last traded at $2,029 an ounce. Silver at $22.44 an ounce.

EDITOR'S NOTE: UBS is starting the new year with a rosy outlook for gold performance. Their projection is not as aggressive as several others out there but the reason behind it is the same: Global monetary policy, uncertainty, and geopolitical tension.

UBS sees a 10% spike for gold this year as rate cut speculation swirls -CNBC

READ MORE Gold prices could close the year as much as 10% above current levels on the back of potential interest rate cuts, UBS strategists said, despite declines at the start of 2024.

A UBS note on Friday described recent price moves as “minor” in the context of the precious metal’s 15% climb through 2023 and said the “power of the [Federal Reserve]’s policy pivot should not be underestimated.”

Bullion remains above the psychological level of $2,000 per ounce, the UBS strategists said, forecasting a rise to $2,250 per ounce by the end of the year, despite near-time volatility.

Analysts at Scotiabank retained a more cautious outlook, but revised their price guidance higher. In a Monday note, they said they had adopted higher gold and silver prices for this and next year, and moved their year-end gold forecast to $2,000 per ounce, from $1,900 per ounce, previously.

Gold prices can be impacted by factors including geopolitical instability and market uncertainty — which can boost the appeal of bullion as a “safe haven” asset — and interest rates, which can make higher-yielding investments more attractive when they are raised. READ MORE

RealMoneyBlog - Free daily/weekly email

1.22.24 - Do you feel the economy is healthy?

Gold last traded at $2,021 an ounce. Silver at $22.09 an ounce.

EDITOR'S NOTE: If you listen to Wall Street, you'd think the economic engine is chugging along along in a positive direction. But most Americans are instead experiencing the turmoil associated with a crumbling economy. Here is a good breakdown of what's really happening.

How Can Anyone Possibly Claim That The U.S. Economy Is Doing Well With All Of This Going On? -The Economic Collapse

How in the world can anybody possibly claim that the U.S. economy is in good shape? Honestly, I don’t see how anyone can make a rational argument that this is the case. Actually, the only people that seem to be trying to claim that the U.S. economy is heading in the right direction are those in the upper tiers of the economic food chain. At this stage, those in the lower tiers of the economic food chain are very well aware of how much they are suffering. Poverty, homelessness and hunger are rapidly growing all over America right now. But if you still have plenty of money and those around you still have plenty of money, you may be wondering what all of the fuss is about. If you are one of those people, hopefully this article will be a wake up call for you.

Let’s start with the housing market. On Friday, we learned that sales of previously owned homes in December 2023 were 6.2 percent lower than they were in December 2022…

Sales of previously owned homes fell 1% in December compared with November to 3.78 million units on a seasonally adjusted annualized basis, according to the National Association of Realtors. Sales were 6.2% lower than in December 2022, marking the lowest level since August 2010. READ MORE

RealMoneyBlog - Free daily/weekly email

1.19.24 - Bigger Crash Than 2008?

Gold last traded at $2,029 an ounce. Silver at $22.61 an ounce.

EDITOR'S NOTE: Macroeconomist Henrik Zeberg sees inevitable trouble ahead and believes nothing can be done to stop it. So what should the average American do to protect themselves in these conditions? Make sure your portfolio is well-balanced and includes assets that perform best in a recessionary environment.

US Stock Market: Bigger Crash Than 2008 on the Cards, Explains Analyst -watcher.guru

The US stock market remains in muddy waters as the Ukraine and Russia war, Israel and Palestine conflict, and the Red Sea trade disruption can bring the economy down in 2024. Macroeconomist Henrik Zeberg warned that the US stock market could experience a bigger crash than 2008 in the coming months. The analyst highlighted several indicators that show the US economy walking on a thin rope since last year.

According to Zeberg, the factors that could lead the US stock market to crash majorly include Yield inversion, higher interest rates for home buyers, an increase in consumers’ mortgage and debt, and less demand for inventories, among other various factors.

“Major Recession will set in. The Titanic has already hit the iceberg – and it will sink. There is nothing that can be done from the Fed or any administration,” he said.

Zeberg’s analysis is based on the Business Cycle Model that predicts an upcoming recession. According to his expertise, this model, tracks the record accurately predicting recessions over 80 years. He explained that the leading indicators are crashing beneath their equilibrium line, and that points towards a recession. READ MORE

RealMoneyBlog - Free daily/weekly email

1.18.24 - A Bullish Development in Silver

Gold last traded at $2,023 an ounce. Silver at $22.74 an ounce.

EDITOR'S NOTE: The stage is set for a breakout year for silver prices. With mounting economic uncertainties alongside a serious supply shortage, some are predicting silver prices could reach as much as $50 an ounce. Certainly believable given the factors at play.

Silver: The Most Bullish Development Of 2024 Goes Unnoticed -Investing Haven

The silver market has a very bullish profile. We would argue: silver is very bullish. This conclusion is contrast with the lack of bullish silver price action.

Silver price vs. silver market

Before looking at one of the most bullish developments in the silver market, we need to distinguish two concepts: the silver price vs. the silver market.

We are very bullish silver, meaning we expect the price of silver to move much, much higher, certainly to $50/oz, even though the exact timing of the start of the big silver run remains tough to predict.

The prospects for a rise in the price of silver is rooted in the physical silver market situation combined with the paper silver market conditions.

On the one hand, as said in the past, a silver supply shortage has been developing in recent years. It started a few years ago, and the tipping point was reached approximately a year ago, as per this research. The situation in the physical silver market might get out of hand if industrial demand for silver continues to rise. READ MORE

RealMoneyBlog - Free daily/weekly email

1.17.24 - Real Estate Collapse Will Lead to 'Chaos'

Gold last traded at $2,006 an ounce. Silver at $22.55 an ounce.

Goldman Was Dumping Billions In Stocks And Other Assets As It Told Clients To Buy -ZeroHedge

It looks like Goldman is once again following the tired trope, "Do as I say, not as I do." How better to dump the assets you don't want than by telling your clients to buy!

by Tyler Durden

After getting his 2023 forecast catastrophically wrong in Nov 2022 when he predicted the S&P would close 2023 at only 4,000, or effectively unchanged for the year...

Goldman's chief equity strategist David Kostin scrambled to overcompensate in his next annual preview, first writing in his 2024 Equity Outlook note published in mid-November that he now expected the S&P to close at 4,700...

... only to change his mind exactly one month later when, in the middle of the biggest year-end meltup in decades, he revised his 2024 price target upward again this time to 5,100.

While it would be easy - and correct - to be cynical and observe that all Kostin was doing was chasing both market price, and the herd of other sellside analysts all of whom were suddenly outbulling each other like a waddle of penguins on meth, it is irrelevant what prompted Kostin to push the afterburners on his bullish take. Instead, what sparked our interest is what Goldman itself was doing during the time the bank was telling its clients to buy.

Because as we learned going through the bank's latest quarterly investor presentation, we are confident that it will come as no surprise to regular readers (especially those who have read our previous notes on the matter such as "Goldman Quietly Sold Billions In Stocks In Q4 And 2021", "Goldman Quietly Sells Billions In Stocks For The Third Quarter In A Row". etc), Goldman was aggressively liquidating billions in its "principal investments" throughout 2023.

As the bank reveals in a chart on slide 16, revealing the details of its Asset & Wealth Management division, in a year when Goldman expected stocks to levitate modestly and, eventually, to soar higher, the bank was selling... and selling... and selling. Indeed, while the group, which was once better known as Goldman's feared Prop Trading division, had "on-balance sheet alternative investments" of some $29.7 billion as of Dec 31, 2022, that number declined anywhere between $2 and $4 billion every quarter for the next four - with the bulk of sales taking place int he final quarter - before closing the year at just $16.3 billion! VIEW CHARTS AND READ MORE

Kevin O’Leary Says a Coming Real Estate Collapse Will Lead to ‘Chaos’ — Here’s What You Need To Know -Yahoo! Finance

While Kevin O'Leary is the most notable name sounding this alarm, he's far from the only one. A commercial real estate collapse will have far-reaching consequences. We live in a different workspace world now, one that will never be the same as it was pre-pandemic. There really is no way for this sector to recover and the collapse will be devastating.

by Gabrielle Olya

“Shark Tank” star Kevin O’Leary believes that the commercial real estate sector is on the brink of collapse and will bring with it ripple effects that will be detrimental to investors and small business owners. He expanded on this “unique situation” while appearing on a recent episode of “Kudlow.”

Here’s everything you need to know about the state of commercial real estate and how it can have broader economic impacts.

The Shift Away From In-Person Work Will Lead To More Bank Failures

Although many large-scale companies are shifting back to in-office work, many small businesses are not making this return. This means that many office buildings are remaining vacant.

“Many of these office spaces are in sub-grade markets, but even in cities like Boston, you find lots of vacancies — up to 40% of buildings,” O’Leary said. “The challenge is, in every other real estate cycle when you have a correction — which is about to happen here because of rising rates — we’ve got to refinance these buildings. Many of them have no equity left in them.”

This will cause serious issues for the regional banks that are invested in these buildings.

“These banks are going to fail because up to 40% of their portfolio is in commercial real estate,” O’Leary said. READ MORE

Will the Fed Sabotage Trump? -Daily Reckoning

Is the Fed apolitical? Most of us would snigger at such an assertion, but perhaps they do stay above the political fray? Or they are simply really great at hiding their tracks.

by James Rickards

It’s an election year. Interest rates are high relative to current inflation rates and are the highest they’ve been since 2006.

Do those two conditions have anything to do with each other? The Federal Reserve would say no but history would say yes.

On the one hand, the Federal Reserve has always maintained they are above politics. According to Fed propaganda, members of the board of governors check their politics at the door of the Fed boardroom and act solely on the basis of economic data and what’s best for the U.S. economy in terms of inflation and unemployment.

Of course, that’s nonsense. The Fed has always been highly political. It’s just that they’re very good at hiding it. READ MORE

RealMoneyBlog - Free daily/weekly email

1.16.24 - 20 Large Companies Conducting Mass Layoffs

Gold last traded at $2,025 an ounce. Silver at $22.91 an ounce.

EDITOR'S NOTE: The unraveling of the US economy continues. After a year that seemed like a non-stop ride on the struggle bus, it's hard to believe 2024 will be any better.

Alert! Here Is A List Of 20 Large Companies That Have Just Decided To Conduct Mass Layoffs -The Economic Collapse

The layoffs are starting to come at a fast and furious pace now. At what point will the mainstream media finally admit that we are facing a major crisis? In recent days, I have been writing quite a bit about the alarming transition that the employment market is going through. There is a lot more competition for any jobs that are still available, and one recent survey discovered that almost 40 percent of U.S. companies anticipate that they will be conducting layoffs in 2024. But even though I am just reporting the facts, I have had people write to me and insist that things really aren’t that bad. Even though the government’s own numbers show that the U.S. lost a ton of full-time jobs in December, these people apparently believe the propaganda that is being fed to them by the Biden administration.

Look, the truth is that the economy really is bleeding good jobs. In this article, I am going to provide you with 20 examples of large companies that have just decided to conduct mass layoffs…

#1 One of our “too big to fail” banks has just announced that it will be eliminating 20,000 good paying jobs… READ MORE

RealMoneyBlog - Free daily/weekly email

1.12.24 - US Budget Deficit Soars By 50% In December

Gold last traded at $2,047 an ounce. Silver at $23.16 an ounce.

EDITOR'S NOTE: "The US is on an accelerating path to ruin", that sums it up quite succinctly. This debt is not sustainable, no matter how much one massages the data. Now the question is, when will the dam break? Make sure your investment portfolio is ready to handle what could be a difficult year, and a difficult decade.

US Budget Deficit Soars By 50% In December As Fiscal Collapse Under Biden Accelerates -ZeroHedge

by Tyler Durden

Remember when we showed that the "stealth" secret sauce behind Bidenomics was nothing more than a massive, multi-trillion debt-fueled spending spree, which led to the biggest peacetime, non-crisis budget deficit in US history, with the total deficit for fiscal 2023 ending just over $2 trillion, or double the prior year, something which BofA's Michael Hartnett called the "era of fiscal excess"?

Well, we have news for you: if 2023 was bad, 2024 - an election year of course - is shaping up to be far worse.

Moments ago the US Treasury reported the budget deficit picture for December and it will come as no surprise to anyone that the US has continued to spend like a drunken sailor, or rather, even more. As shown in the chart below, in the month of December, the US collected $429 billion through various taxes, while total outlays hit $559 billion...

... resulting in a December deficit of $129.4 billion.

This may not sound like a lot, but December is actually one of those months when the US deficit is relatively tame, or used to be.

As shown in the next chart, traditionally the December deficit was barely in the $10-20BN range... until 2020 when it exploded to an all time high of $140BN. And while it dropped sharply in 2021, it rebounded dramatically in 2022, and rose to just shy of the December crisis high last month!

Here is some more context: tax receipts of $429.3BN in December were down 5.6% from the $454.9BN in December 2022 and down a whopping 11.8% from December 2021. On an LTM basis, US total tax receipts were $4.521TN, or down 7.2% YoY. This is now the 9th consecutive YoY decline in LTM tax receipts, something that historically has only taken place when the US was in a recession. As an aside, the "smart economists" were certain that the collapse in tax receipts would reverse after November when the postponed California taxes would be collected. Well, November has come and gone and the big picture is just as ugly. VIEW CHARTS AND READ MORE

RealMoneyBlog - Free daily/weekly email

1.11.24 - Buying the S&P 500 a 'pretty lousy trade'

Gold last traded at $2,026 an ounce. Silver at $22.72 an ounce.

EDITOR'S NOTE: Another prominent investor joins the chorus of voices who are concerned a recession is looming, as growth slows and the US debt balloons. Jeffrey Gundlach of DoubleLine Capital, sees volatility ahead in 2024. It's a sentiment many share. Now is the time to make sure your portfolio is ready to weather the storm.

Buying the S&P 500 seems like a 'pretty lousy trade' right now - and a US recession is looming, billionaire investor Jeffrey Gundlach says -Yahoo! Finance

by Theron Mohamed -Business Insider

The S&P 500 is in a precarious spot, and all signs point to a looming US recession, Jeffrey Gundlach says.

The billionaire investor and DoubleLine Capital CEO noted in a public webcast on Tuesday that following the benchmark US stock index's 24% rally last year, it now trades around the same level as it did at the start of 2022.

"This looks like a pretty lousy trade location with a double top going on," he said, according to DoubleLine's live blog of his comments on X.

Investopedia describes a double top as an "extremely bearish technical reversal pattern" where an asset hits a high price twice with a decline in between.

Gundlach also flagged that Wall Street expects the S&P 500 companies to grow total operating earnings by a hefty 11% this year.

"If that doesn't come through, it's going to be hard for the S&P 500 to sustain this level," he said, nodding to the fact that a company's stock is typically valued at a multiple to its earnings.

The veteran fund manager also touted value stocks over their growth peers after years of underperformance. He pointed out that the "Magnificent Seven" technology stocks that led the market's charge last year have "gone dead sideways" since July, signaling a shift in momentum. READ MORE

RealMoneyBlog - Free daily/weekly email

1.10.24 - Office Vacancies Hit Record High

Gold last traded at $2,022 an ounce. Silver at $22.90 an ounce.

Initial US employment reports overstated by 439,000 jobs in 2023 -Fox Business

It's incredible how often the government "cooks the books" and gets away with it. In reality, far fewer jobs have been added, labor participation is at a historic low and many Americans are holding down multiple jobs just to pay their bills. None of this bodes well.

by Elizabeth MacDonald

There’s something wrong with previous U.S. jobs reports.

The government quietly erased 439,000 jobs through November 2023, a closer look at the numbers from the Bureau of Labor Statistics shows.

That means its initial jobs results were inflated by 439,000 positions, and the job market is not as healthy as the government suggests.

Since the government wiped out 439,000 jobs after the fact, the total percentage of jobs created by the government last year is even higher. Increased government hiring has been driving the jobs numbers higher.

This matters because U.S. jobs reports move the markets and U.S. Treasury yields. Plus, they are a significant factor in the Federal Reserve’s decisions about the path of interest rate hikes and cuts. All that affects U.S. consumers’ pocketbooks. READ MORE

Office Vacancies Hit Record High Across US Cities As CRE Downturn Worsens -ZeroHedge

Things are not looking up for the commercial real estate market and that looks to be the new norm as more and more corporations leave large cities and keep workers at home. This may not seem like a sector that matters to the average American but if nobody wants to rent commercial space and the property owners can't pay their mortgages, regional banks will once again start to fall like dominoes over delinquent loans.

by Tyler Durden

Courtesy of the Federal Reserve's most aggressive interest rate hiking cycle in a generation, a surge in remote work in a post-Covid world, and imploding Democrat-run cities with radical progressives in City Halls who fail to enforce common sense 'law and order,' the office sector is reeling and faces an accelerated downturn.

New data from Moody's Analytics shows that 19.6% of office space across major US metro areas was not leased as of the fourth quarter of 2023, exceeding the previous high of 19.3% in the commercial real estate downturn between 1986 and 1991.

"The bulk of the vacant space are buildings that were built in the 1950s, '60s, '70s, and '80s," Mary Ann Tighe, chief executive of the New York tri-state region at real-estate brokerage CBRE, told The Wall Street Journal.

The new record directly reflects the remote and hybrid work trends that have surged since Covid as companies reduce overall corporate footprints.

Kastle Systems, the gold-standard measure of office-occupancy trends via card-swipe data, has yet to recover from pre-Covid levels.

Another driver of rising office vacancy, but not mentioned in the WSJ report nor other legacy corporate media outlets covering the new Moody's Analytics data, is that failed social justice reforms in Democrat cities have forced companies to shift operations to safer areas. This is a topic widely ignored by woke journos. VIEW CHARTS AND READ MORE

Slowly. Then Rapidly. -Daily Reckoning

It took 205 years for the US debt to reach $1 trillion, and now, we have added $1 trillion to the debt in under four months. It doesn't take an economics degree to realize the math on that is likely not going to end well.

by Brian Maher

Slowly. Then rapidly…

In 1981 — 205 years after the nation’s birth — its debt first scaled $1 trillion.

That is, the business was the work of 205 years.

Today the work of 205 years reduces not to centuries… not to decades… not to years… but to months.

Consider: The nation’s debt attained an existingly delirious $33 trillion in September 2023.

In January 2024 — a mere four months following the calamity— the national debt gallops to $34 trillion.

Four months!

No — under four months. The $33 trillion embarrassment was not attained until mid-September.

The $34 trillion enormity was attained the opening week of January.

Impossible. But there it is. READ MORE

RealMoneyBlog - Free daily/weekly email

1.9.24 - Buckle Up For A Bumpy 2024

Gold last traded at $2,030 an ounce. Silver at $22.97 an ounce.

EDITOR'S NOTE: If you're looking for a sugar-coated 2024 financial forecast, this article may not be for you. It seems like there is very little optimism for the economy in the coming year. The fundamentals are pointing more toward turmoil and recession than gains and resilience.

Buckle Up For A Bumpy 2024, Economists Warn -Zero Hedge

Authored by Emel Akan via The Epoch Times

The U.S. economy embarked on a rollercoaster ride in 2023, grappling with high inflation, soaring interest rates, wars abroad, and a shaky banking sector.

This time last year, the U.S. economy was bracing for an impending recession. Concerns about a recession persisted through 2023, particularly following the banking turmoil in the second quarter, which witnessed a 1930s-style bank run on Silicon Valley and First Republic Banks.

The Federal Reserve intervened with emergency measures, and as a result, bank liquidity recovered and financial and credit markets soon normalized, as if the crisis had never happened.

In the months that followed, the U.S. economy surpassed expectations and defied recession fears. The economy grew at a faster-than-expected 4.9 percent in the third quarter, boosted by strong consumer and government spending.

Currently, there’s growing talk about the prospect of a “soft landing” in 2024. Nevertheless, economists remain cautious, with many expecting a bumpy ride ahead due to the lingering effects of tight monetary policy over the past two years.

Although the economy has shown resilience in the face of numerous challenges, many analysts predict a significant slowdown in the coming months, with some even anticipating a recession. READ MORE

RealMoneyBlog - Free daily/weekly email

1.8.24 - Will Robots Take Most Of Our Jobs?

Gold last traded at $2,028 an ounce. Silver at $23.10 an ounce.

EDITOR'S NOTE: The capabilities of AI are growing by the minute and infiltrating every area of our day-to-day lives. AI affects advertising, content creation, product development and manufacture, shipping, logistics, the list is endless. The question is, at what cost?

What Is Going To Happen To Our Society As AI And Robots Take Most Of Our Jobs? -The Economic Collapse

If you haven’t lost your job yet, you should be very thankful. Artificial intelligence and robots are taking more of our jobs with each passing day, and there will be no end to this high tech invasion. Eventually we could get to a point where AI and robots can do virtually everything far more efficiently and far more inexpensively than humans can. So what will happen to the vast majority of the human population when their labor is no longer needed? Will a way be found to quietly deal with “useless eaters” that are considered to be “just taking up space”? For years we have been warned that AI and robots would revolutionize the workforce, and now that day has officially arrived.

For example, Amazon has been using various types of simple robots to perform certain tasks for years, and now highly sophisticated humanoid robots are being deployed right alongside normal human workers…

Amazon recently began testing a new robot in its warehouse operations — meet Digit, a humanoid bipedal robot with a turquoise torso and smiley eyes.

Designed by Agility Robotics, which Amazon has invested in as part of its Industrial Innovation Fund, Digit is only the latest of a string of warehouse robots the company has introduced over the last several years. However, most of the other warehouse robots have been cart-shaped or robotic arms, not humanoid like Digit.

Digit costs about $10 to $12 an hour to operate right now, based on its price and lifespan, but the company predicts that cost to drop to $2 to $3 an hour plus overhead software costs as production ramps up, Agility Robotics CEO Damion Shelton told Bloomberg. READ MORE

RealMoneyBlog - Free daily/weekly email

1.5.24 - A fresh wave of US bank failures?

Gold last traded at $2,044 an ounce. Silver at $23.19 an ounce.

EDITOR'S NOTE: As 2024 dawns, the banking woes of 2023 continue. Finance experts predict a wave of failures to come. Sadly, this doesn't come as much of a shock as the foundation has been faltering for some time.

Fed rate cuts come too late to avert a fresh wave of US bank failures -Yahoo! Finance

by Ambrose Evans-Pritchard

Emergency lending by the US federal authorities has bathed America’s struggling regional banks in short-term liquidity, disguising the slow-burn damage of the US commercial property slump.

A sobering analysis by four of the country’s leading finance experts says this comfort blanket has created a beguiling illusion of stability. The underlying crisis in the banking system continues to deepen as $5 trillion of commercial real estate debt taken out during the zero-rate era comes due in tranches.

“It’s not a liquidity problem; it’s a solvency problem,” said Professor Tomasz Piskorski, a banking specialist at Columbia University, and one of the lead authors. “Temporary measures have calmed the market but half of all US banks are running short of deposits with assets worth less than their liabilities, and we are talking about $9 trillion,” he said.

“They are bleeding capital and could not survive if something triggers a sudden loss of confidence. It is a very fragile situation and the Federal Reserve is watching it closely”. READ MORE

RealMoneyBlog - Free daily/weekly email

1.4.24 - A Massive US Bank is Now Closing Credit Cards

Gold last traded at $2,044 an ounce. Silver at $23.04 an ounce.

EDITOR'S NOTE: As if there weren't already enough questions surrounding the actions of our nation's banks, a new trend is developing. Banks appear to be arbitrarily closing customers' credit cards without due cause. It is a bank's prerogative to do so; but why do they feel this is necessary?

A Massive US Bank is Now Closing Credit Cards -Frank Nez

A massive US bank is now closing credit cards without warning according to new customer reports on social forums.

A Reddit user says Bank of America closed a total of four of their credit cards with many other (now ex) customers confirming the same experience.

They explained that they had missed one payment six years earlier and had an "almost perfect" FICO score.

"I checked TransUnion and the bank in question had checked my credit report one day then promptly on the same day sent a mail with no details on why my credit cards I had for 10+ years…was closed," they wrote.

The customer service representative didn't give them any details on why the accounts were closed, but the poster did say another institution they have a credit card with ran their credit report the day before BOA made the decision to close the card. READ MORE

RealMoneyBlog - Free daily/weekly email

1.3.24 - The Incredibly Ballooning US Government Debt

Gold last traded at $2,038 an ounce. Silver at $23.05 an ounce.

Gold Prices Predicted To Hit Record Highs Of $2,300 In 2024 -ZeroHedge

JP Morgan joins the chorus of financial giants predicting new highs for gold in 2024; some experts see the price moving to $3000/ounce and beyond. Considering what it's already done at the close of 2023, this seems quite feasible.

Authored by Naveen Athrappully via The Epoch Times

After prices jumped in 2023, gold is entering 2024 with many experts suggesting the safe haven asset could hit record highs this year.

In 2023, gold prices jumped from around $1,823 per oz. to $2,062 per oz.—an increase of over 13 percent—making it the best year for the yellow metal since 2020. On Dec. 4, gold hit a record-high price of $2,135.40 per oz. For 2024, experts predict gold prices to move higher.

“Following on from a surprisingly robust performance in 2023, we see further price gains in 2024, driven by a trifecta of momentum chasing hedge funds, central banks continuing to buy physical gold at a firm pace, and not least renewed demand from ETF investors,” said Saxo Bank’s Ole Hansen, according to Reuters.

JP Morgan predicts gold to see a “breakout rally” starting in the middle of this year due to Federal Reserve’s interest rate cuts. The bank expects gold to hit a peak of $2,300. Meanwhile, UBS projects gold prices to hit $2,150 by the end of this year if the rate cuts were to take place. READ MORE

The Incredibly Ballooning US Government Debt Spikes by $1 Trillion in 15 Weeks to $34 Trillion -Wolf Street

At this point, one has to assume that Congress really believes that money grows on trees. The first line of this article should give everyone pause, interest payments on the debt alone will eat up HALF of what the government takes in on tax revenues. So what will they use to actually run the country?

By Wolf Richter

Interest payments threatening to eat up half the tax receipts may be the only disciplinary force left to deal with Congress.

The total US national debt spiked by $1.0 trillion in 15 weeks since September 15, to $34.0 trillion, according to the Treasury Department’s figures this afternoon. In the seven months since the debt ceiling was lifted, the national debt spiked by $2.5 trillion.

These are huge gigantic numbers that are piling up as a result of the incredible hard-to-fathom daredevil reckless shake-your-head deficit spending by Congress. Congratulations, America! We made it, $34 trillion!

Since the beginning of 2016, the total debt has spiked by $15 trillion, or by 80%! This stuff is just breathtaking. READ MORE

Massive Cybersecurity Breach at Xfinity: Over 35 Million Customers at Risk -Franklin County Free Press

Another data breach of another major corporation who should be unhackable. Now, imagine the government creating a digital currency and not only promising to safely store all of your financial data but also being solely responsible for making sure your digital dollars aren't stolen by hackers? This is what they want to do. Do you trust them to do it well?

In a significant cybersecurity incident, Comcast’s Xfinity service experienced a data breach impacting over 35 million customers, marking a concerning trend in digital security vulnerabilities. This breach, which exposed sensitive customer information, underscores the increasing challenges in protecting personal data in the digital age.

In mid-October, Xfinity alerted its customers to unauthorized access to its internal systems. This intrusion, linked to a vulnerability previously disclosed by software provider Citrix, occurred between October 16th and 19th. It wasn’t until October 25th that Xfinity detected suspicious activities, eventually realizing that customer data was likely compromised.

The breach’s scale is staggering, with filings indicating nearly 35.9 million customers affected. The compromised information included usernames, hashed passwords, and for some, more sensitive data such as the last four digits of Social Security numbers, account security questions, birthdates, and contact information.

Steven Weisman, an expert on cybersecurity and editor of Scamicide.com, highlights the severity of the situation. The breach’s nature, where hackers accessed partial Social Security numbers, significantly increases the risk of identity theft. Weisman notes that the first five digits of a Social Security number can often be inferred from geographical and issuance data, making the last four digits particularly sensitive. READ MORE

RealMoneyBlog - Free daily/weekly email

1.2.24 - Americans in these states will pay less in taxes

Gold last traded at $2,058 an ounce. Silver at $23.65 an ounce.

EDITOR'S NOTE: As inflationary pressures continue to mount, there may be a reprieve on the horizon; but only for some. Twelve states are looking to reduce personal income tax in order to free up additional funds for struggling households. Hopefully other states will jump on board as we venture into 2024.

Americans in these states will pay less in taxes this year -Fox Business

by Megan Henney

A number of states are lowering income taxes this year, putting more money into many Americans' pockets as they continue to grapple with stubborn inflation.

At least 12 states, a majority led by Republicans, will reduce taxes for residents in some form this year, according to the Tax Foundation, a nonpartisan group that lobbies for lower taxes.

Here is a closer look at where state taxes are being reduced. READ MORE

RealMoneyBlog - Free daily/weekly email