2020 Blog Archives

2020 Blog Archives


Real Money Podcast

Dec 31, 2020


12.31.20 - Expect Widespread Stimulus Fraud

Gold last traded at $1,894 an ounce. Silver at $26.34 an ounce.

NEWS SUMMARY: Precious metal prices steadied Thursday in thin, pre-holiday trading. U.S. stocks traded mostly lower as Wall Street wrapped up one of the most volatile years for the market in recent memory.

Thanks to new law, expect more widespread stimulus fraud -Washington Examiner

"We've all heard the apocryphal quote attributed to Albert Einstein: 'Insanity is doing the same thing over and over again and expecting different results.' Einstein might not have actually said it, but the quip nonetheless describes what Congress is doing right now with COVID-19 stimulus efforts to a T.

Remember that the $900 billion behemoth bill legislators just passed is actually their second major 'stimulus' effort. The new spending bonanza comes as a follow-up to the $2 trillion CARES Act Washington passed in March - yet it hasn't fixed any of the first bill's glaring problems.

The CARES Act sent 1 million stimulus checks to dead people and untold thousands more to random European citizens. So, too, its uber-expanded welfare system lost more to unemployment fraud than the entire unemployment system paid out in 2019. And while many conservatives misguidedly view the Paycheck Protection Program as the saving grace of the CARES Act, the grant program ostensibly intended to help small businesses stay afloat was also rife with fraud and co-opted by big, wealthy corporations.

Of course, Congress decided to fix essentially none of this in the new bill.

'The new Covid-19 relief plan for small businesses that President Trump signed this week doesn't address some weaknesses in the original stimulus legislation that allowed companies with checkered histories to get billions of dollars in payments,' the Wall Street Journal reports.

'Nearly 1,500 companies that received about $2 billion in PPP loans have faced allegations of violating government regulations or of criminal conduct,' it continues. 'Another 432 firms laid off workers after getting approved for nearly $1 billion in loans.'"

gold Gold on course for best year in a decade -CNBC

"Gold prices were little changed in holiday-thinned trade on Thursday, but the yellow metal was en route to register its best annual performance in a decade. Spot gold last traded at $1,897.40 per ounce, up more than 24% for the year, its best since 2010.

'We look for a move towards $1,950 in the first quarter of 2021, with the expansionary monetary and fiscal policy pushing inflation expectations up and with U.S. real rates falling further,' said UBS analyst Giovanni Staunovo.

The dollar index fell to a more than two-year trough, making gold cheaper for other currency holders....Unprecedented stimulus measures and low interest rates to cushion economies from the impact of the pandemic this year have benefited gold, as it is seen as a hedge against inflation.

Silver fell 0.6% to $26.44 per ounce but was up more than 48% this year, its best performance since 2010."

Morgan Stanley's Top 10 Surprises For 2021 -Zero Hedge

"While we all could use a year without surprises, it would be a surprise itself if we didn't get any in 2021. As such, Morgan Stanley's chief rates strategist Matthew Hornbach discusses 10 scenarios which 'would surprise consensus and thus could move global macro markets in meaningful ways.'

Surprise #1: Developed Market (DM) liquidity avoids Emerging Markets (EM) and drives a DM asset bubble...fear of missing out creates the most buoyant DM asset price bubble of all time.

Surprise #2: A divided government agrees on an infrastructure package: While a Democrat-controlled Senate would be a surprise, a bigger surprise in 2021 could be a bipartisan agreement on an infrastructure plan.

Surprise #3: ECB strategy review advises greater housing weight in HICP....

Surprise #4: BoJ rate cut once again on the table....

Surprise #5: EUR/USD positive correlation with equities reverses...EUR becoming a funding currency could catalyze this scenario.

Surprise #6: Immigration causes the northern lights to shine brightest: Canadian growth could meaningfully outperform versus dour market expectations driven by pent-up migration flows, raising the attractiveness of Canadian assets to foreign investors."

How to Become a Better Investor Than the Rest -Bonner/Rogue Economics

"First, I have been publishing investment advice since 1980. But I only became interested in investing itself, not economics, when I became serious about my children's and grandchildren's money.

It's one thing to make money in a business or profession. It is quite another thing to protect your fortune by investing it properly.

Investing is not economics. Economics is the study of how people work together to build wealth"¦ what kind of conditions help them"¦ what kind of circumstances and policies hinder them"¦ and why some people prosper and others don't....

Two of the investment letters we publish in the U.S. more than doubled the performance of the S&P 500 over a 10-year period. Could it be luck? Well, there may be some luck involved. But it seems unlikely for lightning to strike twice in such a small place.

Time, patience, energy, hard work, and discipline - in almost every aspect of life, these qualities pay off. I believe they pay off in the investing world, too. That is, it makes sense to invest the time and effort to try to discover what stocks are really worth.

And if you work at it long and hard enough, I think you can beat the market....Most investors are not doing their homework. They're using their tribal brains to try to beat the stock market. This leads them to make serious errors of judgment as to the value of companies.

The prudent investor, with a sharp pencil and a sharp mind, profits from these errors by buying, or selling, the mispriced equities....

Most investors use their small-scale, small-group brains. They buy and sell investments based on what someone told them"¦ or rumors"¦ or what they read in the papers"¦ or half-baked ideas of all sorts. They root for stocks like they root for a football team....

Taken together, stocks are almost never really worth a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of greater than 20. The only exception might be when you have a fast-growing economy. Then you can expect the stream of income to increase.

But if the market is trading at more than 20 times earnings, there is likely more downside ahead than upside....When the animal spirits run wild, markets - bonds, U.S. stocks, contemporary art, real estate - head toward bubble territory. That's when you should sell out of these things rather than try to pick the absolute top."

**Swiss America Trading will be closed New Year's Day. We hope you have a wonderful holiday.**

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Real Money Podcast

Dec 30, 2020


12.30.20 - 2020: The Year Liberty Was Torched

Gold last traded at $1,890 an ounce. Silver at $26.48 an ounce.

NEWS SUMMARY: Precious metal prices rose Wednesday on safe-haven buying and dollar weakness. U.S. stocks rose as the market tried to reclaim record highs in the final days of 2020.

Gold Analysis - Year in Review and Forecast -Kenjaev/FX Empire

"What a year for Gold, we have witnessed a sudden excitement of Gold investors and Central Banks as the Covid-19 pandemic hit the World economy and forced many states to lock their borders and hibernate.

Regardless of the beginning of the uptrend on January 1, 2016, and the beginning of the new motive wave on August 27, 2018, the true excitement started on March 17, 2020. The hike of March 17 this year was similar to the one on August 12, 2010, when the US Dollar collapsed.

This year, when the new coronavirus was spreading in drastic speed and caused a Global pandemic, Gold hit the new ATH at $2072 on August 06, 2020. Central Banks of some countries when the pandemy started filled their basket with Gold.

The new year ahead might surprise with the new Gold-bull-movement as countries which opened the border during the pandemic are going for another lockdown amid a spread of the new virus strain."

king dollar King Dollar Is Abdicating and That's OK -Wall Street Journal

"There are many reasons to expect a weaker U.S. dollar next year and perhaps for longer, but none more important than the new policy stance of the Federal Reserve.

The U.S. dollar briefly rallied in March due to its haven role in investment portfolios. Since then, it has dropped around 12% against a trade-weighted basket of currencies as the U.S. turned out to be even harder hit by the coronavirus pandemic than most major economies.

As vaccines are rolled out and the global economy snaps back, this trade won't necessarily run in reverse. Rather, currencies of countries that export commodities and manufactured goods are likely to keep strengthening against the dollar, as would be seen in a typical global recovery. Some Asian exporters already are quietly intervening to limit their currencies' rise.

But this time, reasons to expect a weaker dollar run even deeper....

After all, the Fed pledged in August to let inflation run above its 2% target for an extended period and not to respond to falling unemployment with pre-emptive rate increases. Meanwhile, peer central banks around the world continue to target inflation rates of around 2% while falling well short of that.

If markets take the Fed at its word, they won't bid up the dollar as they normally might in response to robust inflation or growth data out of the U.S. This is why TS Lombard economist Steven Blitz calls the new framework an effective end to the traditional 'strong dollar' policy of the U.S. government....

Consider, for instance, the likely market reaction to a large stimulus package early in the Biden administration. Big doses of deficit spending are typically seen as dollar-negative because they mean the U.S. will have to import more foreign savings.

Investors whose net worth is concentrated in dollars should make sure they are diversified...The perennially strong dollar may be a thing of the past."

Ways Covid-19 Has Changed the World Economy Forever -Bloomberg

"Economic shocks like the coronavirus pandemic of 2020 only arrive once every few generations, and they bring about permanent and far-reaching change.

Measured by output, the world economy is well on the way to recovery from a slump the likes of which barely any of its 7.7 billion people have seen in their lifetimes. Vaccines should accelerate the rebound in 2021. But other legacies of Covid-19 will shape global growth for years to come.

Some are already discernible. The takeover of factory and service jobs by robots will advance, while white-collar workers get to stay home more. There'll be more inequality between and within countries. Governments will play a larger role in the lives of citizens, spending - and owing - more money. What follows is an overview of some of the transformations under way....

In the longer run, a big rethink in economics is changing minds about public debt. The new consensus says governments have more room to spend in a low-inflation world, and should use fiscal policy more proactively to drive their economies. Advocates of Modern Monetary Theory say they pioneered those arguments and the mainstream is only now catching up.

Central banks were plunged back into printing money. Interest rates hit new record lows. Central bankers stepped up their quantitative easing, widening it to buy corporate as well as government debt.

All these monetary interventions have created some of the easiest financial conditions in history - and unleashed a frenzy of speculative investment, which has left plenty of analysts worried about moral hazards ahead. But the central-bank policies will be hard to reverse, especially if labor markets remain fractured and companies continue their recent run-up in saving.

And history shows that pandemics depress interest rates for a long time, according to a paper published this year. It found that a quarter-century after the disease struck, rates were typically some 1.5 percentage points lower than they otherwise would have been."

2020: The Year The Tree Of Liberty Was Torched -Whitehead/Zero Hedge

"No doubt about it: 2020 - a terrible, horrible, no good, very bad year for freedom - was the culmination of a terrible, horrible, no good, very bad decade for freedom.

Government corruption, tyranny, and abuse coupled with a Big Brother-knows-best mindset and the COVID-19 pandemic propelled us at warp speed towards a full-blown police state in which nationwide lockdowns, egregious surveillance, roadside strip searches, police shootings of unarmed citizens, censorship, retaliatory arrests, the criminalization of lawful activities, warmongering, indefinite detentions, SWAT team raids, asset forfeiture, police brutality, profit-driven prisons, and pay-to-play politicians were accepted as the norm.

Here's just a small sampling of the laundry list of abuses - cruel, brutal, immoral, unconstitutional and unacceptable - that have been heaped upon us by the government over the past two decades and in the past year, in particular.

The government failed to protect our lives, liberty and happiness. The predators of the police state wreaked havoc on our freedoms, our communities, and our lives....

The courts failed to uphold justice. With every ruling handed down, it becomes more apparent that we live in an age of hollow justice, with government courts more concerned with protecting government agents than upholding the rights of 'we the people.'....

COVID-19 allowed the Emergency State to expand its powers. What started out as an apparent effort to prevent a novel coronavirus from sickening the nation (and the world) became yet another means by which world governments (including our own) could expand their powers, abuse their authority, and further oppress their constituents....

The takeaway: Everything the founders of this country feared has come to dominate in modern America. 'We the people' have been saddled with a government that is no longer friendly to freedom and is working overtime to trample the Constitution underfoot and render the citizenry powerless in the face of the government's power grabs, corruption and abusive tactics.

America was meant to be primarily a system of local governments, which is a far cry from the colossal federal bureaucracy we have today. Yet if our freedoms are to be restored, understanding what is transpiring practically in your own backyard - in one's home, neighborhood, school district, town council - and taking action at that local level must be the starting point."

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Real Money Podcast

Dec 29, 2020


12.29.20 - Home Prices Surge, People Flee Cities

Gold last traded at $1,877 an ounce. Silver at $26.11 an ounce.

NEWS SUMMARY: Precious metal prices rose Tuesday on safe-haven buying and a weaker dollar. U.S. stocks traded mostly lower as traders weighed the possibility of even more fiscal stimulus being approved by Congress.

5 Reasons Why High Yield Investors Need Gold -Seeking Alpha

"Gold has millennia of history and intrinsic qualities that make it an excellent store of wealth in the midst of economic uncertainty and runaway spending and money printing.

The market value of gold has numerous fundamental tailwinds, making it arguably one of the most attractive investments right now on a risk-adjusted basis. In particular, it makes for an essential portion of a high yield portfolio these days for the following 5 reasons:

1) Economic conditions increase safe haven value
2) Inflation is coming
3) The Gold-to-M1 ratio favors gold
4) The Gold-to-S&P 500 ratio favors gold
5) Gold diversifies High Yield well....

As long as the future is inflationary (which history and current trends strongly point to) and contains growth in it (which the history of the United States and the momentum of the advancement of knowledge and technology favor), the combination of the two in a portfolio should provide very attractive risk-adjusted returns.

With the stock market's detachment from the state and risks of the economy, Ray Dalio's timeless wisdom should motivate us all, now more than ever, to maintain holdings in what history has proven time and again to be true money: gold."

candy Super Bowl Advertisers Gravitate to Humor in a Hard Time -Wall Street Journal

"Madison Avenue is expected to rely more heavily on its funny bone in the upcoming Super Bowl, despite the upswing in Covid-19 cases and other challenges that have engulfed the country this year.

The laundry list of issues has forced many brands to think hard about what tone to strike during the biggest night on television. But with fewer than seven weeks until the planned Feb. 7 kickoff, a consensus approach has begun to emerge: relief.

Ad-agency executives say the country is looking for a reprieve from its problems, including the surging virus, an uncertain economy and political divisiveness.

'People want to laugh and they want to feel normal again,' said Susan Credle, global chief creative officer at Interpublic Group of Cos.' FCB, which is crafting several big-game ads this year.

Candy-maker Mars Inc. will air a comedic ad in the first quarter of the game featuring its M&M candy characters....

Comedy has long played a significant role in Super Bowl commercials, of course, but ad executives anticipate that more brands are likely to employ a humorous approach for Super Bowl LV....

'We are finding that celebrities who wouldn't necessarily want to do commercials before are willing to be part of it because they are not working,' said Rob Reilly, global creative chairman of Interpublic's McCann Worldgroup. McCann has enlisted a high-profile celebrity to appear in one of the Super Bowl ads it is creating....

Avoiding creative fumbles, such as jokes that go too far or political references that don't go over well, can be harder today because the divisiveness in the country has made it hard to predict which commercials will prompt backlash."

U.S home prices surge to 6-year high as more people flee cities -Marketwatch

"The cost of buying a home surged again in October, a closely followed index showed, and prices rose at the fastest rate in six years in a clear sign the housing market is still booming despite a raging pandemic.

A measure of home prices in 20 large cities rose at a 7.9% yearly pace in October, according to the S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller price index. That's up from 6.6% in the prior month.

A broader measure by Case-Shiller that covers the entire country, meanwhile, showed a similarly large 8.4% increase in home prices over the past year. That's also up sharply from 7% in the prior month.

Prices have risen at the fastest clip since 2014 owing to record-low mortgage rates and an influx of people leaving cities to escape the coronavirus and find more space. A short supply of homes for sale has also been a contributing factor....

The biggest yearly increases in home prices took place in Phoenix (12.7%), Seattle (11.7%) and San Diego (11.6%).

The smallest increases occurred in New York (6%) and Chicago (6.3%) and Las Vegas (6.4%) - cities that have been hit hard from the virus or whose local economies have suffered the most.

'The data from the last several months are consistent with the view that COVID has encouraged potential buyers to move from urban apartments to suburban homes,' said Craig J. Lazzara, global head of index investment strategy at S&P Dow Jones Indices."

Why Bill Uses the "Royal We" -Bonner/Rogue Economics

"From time to time, dear readers write to question Bill's use of the 'royal we' in his writings. Far from being an affectation, Bill explains that it is, in fact, the 'common' we"¦ used with no delusions of grandeur whatsoever.

The Queen uses the 'royal we' to signify that she is not speaking for herself, but for the Crown"¦ an institution that was around for hundreds of years before she was born and will, presumably, outlast her by hundreds more.

Here at the Diary, we do not use the 'royal' we. We use the 'common' we"¦ a plebian, down-market, gutter kind of we, with no pretension to grandeur, nor even mediocrity.

For here we are, writing from a house we didn't build"¦ in a country that is not ours"¦ wearing clothes we didn't design"¦ looking out on rain we didn't cause"¦

"¦and passing along ideas that are not original. Even when we think we have had a new idea, we discover later that someone had the same idea 2,000 years ago.

Not one molecule in our body, thought in our brain, or feeling in our heart is of our own making. It would be vanity to use first-person singular; there is nothing singular about who we are or what we do.

No, we have neither scepter nor orb; all we have is a laptop computer.

We wear no royal purple. We favor brown and grey. We dress in dull colors so we may think in vivid ones.

We have no throne, no influence, no privilege, no position, and no armed guards to protect us.

We speak not for the Crown, but for all those common people who try to put two and two together....'We' speak for them all - as best as we can.

As time passes, the conceits of youth"¦ the illusion of timelessness"¦ the passions and competitions - to have the biggest bank account, the biggest car, the biggest house, the biggest muscles, and the biggest you-know-what - all get dropped along the way, like discarded pianos on the Oregon Trail.

All that is left is the shriveled up, naked reality"¦ of time, love"¦ and death....So let us at least speak for a group"¦ not of royals, but of commoners"¦ and use 'we' in sympathy with all those sinners, geniuses, half-wits, saints, and jackasses that came before and will come after us"¦"

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Real Money Podcast

Dec 28, 2020


12.28.20 - Silver Price to Shine in 2021

Gold last traded at $1,876 an ounce. Silver at $26.36 an ounce.

NEWS SUMMARY: Precious metal prices zig-zagged Monday on a firmer dollar. U.S. stocks rose in the final trading week of 2020 as President Donald Trump signed an economic relief bill.

Silver price to shine the brightest in 2021 -Kitco

"The silver market is garnering a lot of attention heading into 2021 and according to Main Street retail investors, it is the precious metal they will be keeping an eye on in the new year.

Investors have been waiting a long time for silver to finally live up to its reputation and outperform gold. For the fifth consecutive year, retail investors see the grey metal as the top asset in the precious metals sector.

This year, 1,015 people participated in Kitco News' Outlook 2021 online survey. A total of 568 Main Street voters, or 56%, said they expect silver to fare better than other metals in the year ahead.

The bullish outlook for silver come as the precious metal has seen a historic rally since falling to $12 an ounce due to financial market turmoil due to the COVID-19 pandemic. Since its lows, silver prices have rallied more 115%.

In comparison, gold prices are up 25% from its March lows around $1,500 an ounce.

Many analysts also see silver outperforming gold prices in 2021. Low interest rates, a weaker U.S. dollar and rising inflation pressures will drive both gold and silver, which are both seen as monetary metals. However, improving economic activity next year will add another pillar of support for silver.

Some analysts see potential for silver prices to retest their all-time highs above $50 an ounce."

markets Market Edges Toward Euphoria, Despite Pandemic's Toll -New York Times

"Investors of all stripes piled into stocks this year, creating levels of froth reminiscent of the dot-com boom. Analysts say there's room to go higher, but some worry about a bubble.

Already notable for its mostly unstoppable rise this year - despite a pandemic that has killed more than 300,000 people, put millions out of work and shuttered businesses around the country - the market is now tipping into outright euphoria.

Big investors who have been bullish for much of 2020 are finding new causes for confidence in the Federal Reserve's continued moves to keep markets stable and interest rates low. And individual investors, who have piled into the market this year, are trading stocks at a pace not seen in over a decade, driving a significant part of the market's upward trajectory.

'The market right now is clearly foaming at the mouth,' said Charlie McElligott, a market analyst with Nomura Securities in New York.

The S&P 500 index is up nearly 15 percent for the year. By some measures of stock valuation, the market is nearing levels last seen in 2000, the year the dot-com bubble began to burst....

'We are seeing the kind of craziness that I don't think has been in existence, certainly not in the U.S., since the internet bubble,' said Ben Inker, head of asset allocation at the Boston-based money manager Grantham, Mayo, Van Otterloo....

Perhaps the clearest example of unbridled investor enthusiasm comes from the market for I.P.O.s. With more than 447 new share offerings and more than $165 billion raised this year, 2020 is the best year for the I.P.O. market in 21 years, according to data from Dealogic....

For companies that went public in December, shares on the first day of trading jumped roughly 87 percent, on average, as of the week that ended Dec. 18. That's the highest since early 2000, when the tech bubble began to burst.

'It's not as obvious a bubble as 20 years ago,' said Jay Ritter, a finance professor at the University of Florida who studies initial public offerings. 'But we're close to bubble territory.'

The market appears overheated by another gauge that investors often use to determine how cheap or expensive a stock is: its price relative to the profits it's expected to make. Currently, the so-called price-to-earnings ratio for S&P 500 companies is above 22, and has been for much of the year. The last time the market was consistently above that level was in 2000."

Covid-19 Propelled Businesses Into the Future. Ready or Not. -Wall Street Journal

"Spurred by the pandemic, business changes that normally might have taken years unfolded in months. Now, shifts that began as temporary fixes are likely to become permanent.

For many who crossed the digital divide this year, there will be no going back.

The Covid-19 pandemic forced Americans to collectively swap the physical for the digital world in a matter of months. As retailers learn to operate without stores, business travelers without airplanes, and workers without offices, much of what started out as a temporary expedient is likely to become permanent.

'Covid has acted like a time machine: it brought 2030 to 2020,' said Loren Padelford, vice president at Shopify Inc. 'All those trends, where organizations thought they had more time, got rapidly accelerated.' Merchants using the company's e-commerce platform shot up more than 20% between January and June to 1.4 million, according to broker Robert W. Baird & Co.

The reverberations are already apparent in everything from the stock market to corporate spending patterns to the decline of physical cash....

In many ways, digitization is simply the next chapter of a process under way for a century: the dematerialization of the economy. As agriculture gave way to manufacturing and then services, the share of economic value derived from tangible material and muscle shrunk while the share derived from information and brains grew....

The shift from physical to virtual commerce went hand-in-hand with the rise of remote and contactless payments and the decline of cash. The virus prompted some bastions of cash such as casinos to introduce more cashless technology."

What They Don't Tell You About Electric Vehicles -American Spectator

"Would you wait 15 minutes to get a fast-food hamburger?

Electric cars will make you wait longer. This includes even those touted as being capable of receiving a 'fast' charge in 15 minutes or so. Because you'll have to wait for the car plugged in ahead of you to 'fast' charge.

This assumes you're second in line. If you're third... To achieve the same capacity to charge as many electric cars as a gas station is capable of refueling in an hour, it would be necessary to at least quintuple the physical size of the charging station to compensate for the quintupling of the time it takes to recharge each electric vehicle (EV) versus the time it takes to refuel a non-electric car.

At a gas station, a car occupies its spot at the pump for about five minutes; thus, in 15 minutes it is possible for a single pump to refuel three cars. But if it takes 15 minutes to recharge a single EV, it would take two more places to plug in - and the space for those additional two cars - to equal the throughput capability of the gas station's single pump.

The problem there is that the faster you recharge a battery, the more you reduce its life - and increase the odds of a fire. There is a reason why you trickle charge batteries - if possible....

There's another problem, unique to things powered by electricity.

You cannot just pour in electricity, as you do with gasoline. Electricity doesn't sit ready to go in storage tanks, underneath the pumps. It has to be transmitted as demanded - via cables from the generating source - and this requires cables of much greater capacity than your household extension cord.

This is why it is not possible to 'fast' charge an EV at most private homes. You can reduce the waiting time from eight or more hours but not to 15 minutes. Not without upgrading your house to commercial-grade electric capacity. And then there's that increased risk of burning your house down.

And a word about 'fast' charging - which even where feasible is only partial charging. You cannot fully 'refill' a battery quickly - as you can fully refuel a non-electric car's tank.

Which means more frequent charging....These are basic EV facts, but most people aren't aware of them."

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Real Money Podcast

Dec 24, 2020


12.24.20 - A Christmas Poem For a Most Bizarre Year

Gold last traded at $1,879 an ounce. Silver at $25.79 an ounce.

NEWS SUMMARY: Precious metal prices rose Thursday in thin, pre-Christmas trading. U.S. stocks rose slightly as Wall Street tried to wrap up the holiday-shortened week on a high note.

What Is In Store For Gold In 2021? -Aslam/Forbes

"The precious metal is up nearly 22% year-to-date, but it has been under selling pressure for the past three days, as traders have been busy booking their profits as 2020 comes to an end. There is no doubt that this year has brought glory for gold traders as the gold price made an all-time high of $2,075 in August this year....

The big question for investors and traders is whether the gold price is going to make another record high next year....The answer is very much dependent on a few factors. Firstly, it is all about containing the coronavirus and any other future variant of these viruses... If the coronavirus situation doesn't come under control, traders will seek shelter in safe-haven assets, and gold prices will likely move higher.

Secondly, the economic data, the stock market, and businesses' actual health are completely out of sync. That is because the U.S. stock market is still sitting near its record high while enterprises are consistently forced to close.

Something that is surely going to influence the gold price is the trend in the dollar index, which is determined by the Federal Reserve's monetary policy stance."

holidays A Christmas Poem For A Most Bizarre Year -Resler/Real Clear Markets

"Every Christmas season, I have composed a 'review and outlook' for the economy set to the rhythm and meter of Clement Moore's classic, 'A Visit from St. Nicholas.' This, my 37th annual rendition, is primarily a 'review' of what has been undeniably the most bizarre year in a lifetime. The poem ends with a brief but, as always, hopeful outlook for the year ahead.

'Twas the Night Before Christmas

'Twas the night before Christmas, all calm and serene,
As moonlight bathed the marsh grass in a silv'ry sheen.
But my spirit was troubled and lacking in cheer
For we'd come to the end of a truly bizarre year.

First, we'd endured a month-long impeachment trial
Brought by those annoyed mainly by Donald Trump's style.
Although for acquittal most Senators voted
To Trump's removal would his foes stay devoted.

At the year's start, our economy was quite strong,
But no one foresaw how fast it'd go terribly wrong.
For, unseen to all, a global pandemic did loom
That would bring a quick end to our decade-long boom.

Hoping to avert a fate we'd all come to dread,
We halted most commerce to slow the Covid's spread.
With shutdowns and lockdowns the world over decreed,
Economies collapsed with incredible speed.

Policymakers quickly sprang into action
Budgeting trillions to give spending some traction
The Fed did its part, setting interest rates low
And vowing also to let its balance sheet grow.

That these bold and quick actions did help I'm quite sure,
But the pandemic's left wounds that will surely endure.
Dining and travel could take years to recover,
While new ways of spending we'll surely discover.

School closures and remote learning have come at high cost
And it'll take years to make up what our school kids have lost.
The real estate market has also been altered,
As big cities shrink 'cause their leaders have faltered.

We'll keep meeting remotely with Facetime or Zoom,
Though something gets lost when we're not in the same room.
Social distance and masking have become the new norm
And we're told the virus will spread unless we conform.

Daily, we heard the count of deaths and new cases
All duly sorted by region, ages, and races.
Rarely though did the press give context or perspective,
So the policy response too oft proved defective.

The self-righteous claimed we must - 'follow the science.'
And insisted their rules get total compliance.
But true science is complex with many dimensions,
That advances through debate and often dissensions.

And if a pandemic wasn't enough of a curse,
Late in the Spring things took a turn for the worse.
When Mister George Floyd died 'neath the knee of a cop
The outrage that followed brought chaos no one could stop.

Protesters and marchers in cities large and small
Cried out demands of 'equal justice for all.'
But too often all that hollering and hooting
Gave way to lawless riots, arson and looting.

This deadly brew of disease and social unrest
Has put long-held traditions and norms to the test.
And when we tried voting modes not used in the past,
We found more ballots than ever had somehow been cast.

Trump challenged the outcome through appeal and recount
But Biden's vote margin prov'd too wide to surmount.
So early next year a new President takes charge,
Still the challenges ahead remain just as large.

Our future will again be more hopeful and bright,
When, at last, we can end this dread Covid blight.
And thanks to 'Warp Speed,' that day soon may arrive,
And, once more in good health we will prosper and thrive."

Covid-19 vaccine: Will the U.S. trust it? -CNBC

"The U.S. began vaccinating the population against the coronavirus last week, but mass adoption is not a guarantee. Nearly 4 in 10 Americans say they would 'definitely' or 'probably' not get a vaccine, according to a Pew Research Center survey of 12,648 U.S. adults from Nov. 18 to 29.

While this is better than Pew results from September, which showed that nearly 50% of respondents were leaning toward not getting the vaccine, it still falls short of what is needed to adequately protect the country. To achieve herd immunity, about 70% of the population needs to be vaccinated or have natural antibodies, experts say.

Widespread mistrust could be a product of the fact that the Covid vaccine was researched and developed in just eight months, breaking the speed record of four years.

Or it might have something to do with the fact that if anything goes wrong with the vaccine, the drugmakers that produced them - Pfizer, BioNTech and Moderna - have total immunity against lawsuits related to injuries resulting from the vaccine until 2024.

Central to closing this trust gap is a robust and reliable national education campaign. The Department of Health and Human Services will spend $250 million on this effort."

**Swiss America Trading will be closed Christmas day. We hope you have a wonderful holiday.**

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Dec 23, 2020


12.23.20- Relevance of Gold as a Strategic Asset

Gold last traded at $1,865 an ounce. Silver at $25.36 an ounce.

NEWS SUMMARY: Precious metal prices rebounded Wednesday on safe-haven buying and a weaker dollar. U.S. stocks traded mixed after President Donald Trump criticized the new Covid-19 relief package, which could delay deployment of funds.

The relevance of gold as a strategic asset -World Gold Council

"Gold is a clear complement to stocks, bonds and alternative assets for well-balanced US investor portfolios. As a store of wealth and a multi-faceted hedge, gold has outperformed many major asset classes while providing robust performance in both rising and falling markets.

Gold can enhance a portfolio in four key ways - 1) generate long-term returns, 2) act as an effective diversifier and mitigate losses in times of market stress, 3) provide liquidity with no credit risk and 4) improve overall portfolio performance....

The increased relevance of gold - Investors have embraced alternatives to traditional stock and bond investments in pursuit of diversification and higher risk-adjusted returns. The share of non-traditional assets among global pension funds, for example, increased from 7% in 1998 to 23% in 2019 - this is 30% in the US. And a similar pattern can be seen in the portfolio composition of individual investors.

Gold allocations have been recipients of this shift. Gold is increasingly recognized as a mainstream investment as global investment demand has grown by an average of 14% per year since 2001 and the gold price has increased by almost six-fold over the same period....

Beating inflation, combating deflation - Gold is long considered a hedge against inflation and the data confirms this. The average annual return of 10% over the past 49 years, has outpaced the US consumer price index (CPI).

Gold also protects investors against extreme inflation. In years when inflation was higher than 3% gold's price increased 15% on average (Chart 3). Over the long term, therefore, gold has not just preserved capital but helped it grow."

stock chart This Man Lost Everything Betting on Stocks -Roche/Pragmatic Capitalism

"The headline of this article is something you'll very rarely, if ever, see in the financial press. You're much more likely to hear something along the lines of:

'Joe Schmo made $1,000,000 buying Tesla stock'... 'Jane Doe retired early buying Bitcoin'....Most of this is survivorship bias that promotes an imprudent gambler's mentality. Let me explain.

Back in 2015 there was a great study from Longboard called The Capitalism Distribution. They found, unsurprisingly, that roughly 80% of the markets entire gains came from 20% of all stocks from 1989-2015. 80% of stocks had a 0% gain.

JP Morgan came to similar conclusions in a research paper titled 'The Agony and the Ecstasy - the Risks and Rewards of a Concentrated Stock Investing'. In a study ranging from 1980-2013 they found: 'The median stock underperformed the market with an excess lifetime return of -54%.' In other words, in most cases, a concentrated holder would have been better off invested in the market....

This is why I am a big proponent of treating our 'investment portfolios' like 'savings portfolios'. What most of us do on the stock market is an allocation of savings as opposed to actual investment, which is technically what a firm does when it spends for future production. Yes, we want to get wealthier when we allocate our assets. But most of us need to do so in a manner that not only optimizes our upside, but does so without haphazardly risking the downside along the way. After all, this is literally our life's savings. It shouldn't be treated like money we take to Vegas for a weekend....

I think there's two very important lessons to remember when reading these kinds of articles: 1) Stock picking is very, very difficult and most of us benefit from some degree of diversification. 2) Given the relatively high potential of catastrophic loss in stocks make sure to never bet more than you can afford to lose."

How to End Lockdowns Next Month -Dr. Bhattacharya/Sunetra Gupta/Wall Street Journal

"The approval of several Covid-19 vaccines is an impressive technological development that should rapidly end the lockdowns and allow normal life to resume. But authorities like Anthony Fauci and Bill Gates argue that lockdown restrictions may have to continue through the fall and even into 2022, notwithstanding the catastrophic harms the lockdowns have caused, especially to young people, the poor and the working classes.

The imminent dissemination of vaccines can help end lockdowns by the end of January. The Great Barrington Declaration, which we wrote with Martin Kulldorff of Harvard Medical School, provides the key idea: focused protection of people who face a high risk of mortality should they become infected.

The risk of mortality from Covid-19 infection is now well established by seroprevalence studies conducted world-wide...There is a sharp age gradient in the survival rate after infection. At least 99.95% of people under 70 survive infection; that figure is only 95% for 70 and older.

Covid-19 is thus especially deadly for the old and others with chronic conditions. But the lockdowns are deadly as well. The harms include plummeting childhood vaccination, worse cardiovascular disease outcomes, and less cancer screening, to name a few. It's impossible to quantify the total deaths they have caused and will cause, but it's safe to conclude that for people under 70 without chronic conditions - especially children and young adults - Covid-19 is far less deadly than a lockdown....

Some 50 million people in the U.S. are over 65. The number of vaccine doses expected to be available over the next two months will be enough to vaccinate every elderly person who wants to be inoculated, as well as health-care workers and other vulnerable people. With a 90%-plus efficacy rate in protecting against Covid-19 symptoms, we will achieve near-perfect focused protection.

At that point, the lockdown should end immediately and forever. For healthy young and middle-aged people, especially for minorities and the poor, the lockdown's harm far outstrips the harms from infection."

Goldman Says Bitcoin's Surging Popularity Won't Harm Gold -Bloomberg

"Gold and Bitcoin can coexist, according to Goldman Sachs Group Inc., which said, while the largest digital currency may be pinching some demand from the oldest of havens, the precious metal's standing will endure.

'Gold's recent underperformance versus real rates and the dollar has left some investors concerned that Bitcoin is replacing gold as the inflation hedge of choice,' the bank said in a note. While there's been some substitution, 'we do not see Bitcoin's rising popularity as an existential threat to gold's status as the currency of last resort.'

Bitcoin has seen a blistering rally this month, exceeding $23,000 per token on Thursday, having only surpassed the $20,000 milestone for the first time on Wednesday. Its ascent has prompted debate about whether the upstart will cut into gold's role....

Institutions and wealthy investors avoid cryptocurrencies due to 'transparency issues, while speculative retail investment causes Bitcoin to act as an excessively risky asset,' Goldman said. 'We do not see evidence that Bitcoin's rally is cannibalizing gold's bull market and believe the two can coexist.'

Bitcoin has more than tripled this year, while gold's up 24% after setting a record above $2,075 an ounce in August."

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Dec 22, 2020


12.22.20 - Rand Paul's Speech Goes Viral

Gold last traded at $1,865 an ounce. Silver at $25.36 an ounce.

NEWS SUMMARY: Precious metal prices fell Tuesday on profit-taking and a firmer dollar. U.S. stocks drifted lower after Congress approved a long-delayed coronavirus relief package.

Gold, Past And Future -Seeking Alpha

"Gold, at various times and to various degrees, has correlated with inflation. Inflation is most commonly measured according to the CPI (consumer price index), but the CPI does not capture the effect of the prevailing interest rate....

It would not be unreasonable to expect that, in the present situation, gold and inflation might behave in a similar fashion to 2008-9 where both trended higher....

In the short-term, there is room for the momentum indicators to move higher, but there is resistance at $1900 and then at $1960. If that resistance can be overcome, then new highs are likely....

In summary: Gold, the Fed funds rate, and inflation (relative to the 2y T-yield) are repeating the pattern from 2008-9, which implies that gold will rise over the next several years."

rand paul Rand Paul's Senate floor speech against COVID-19 bill goes viral -Fox NEWS

"Sen. Rand Paul, R-Ky., addressed the Senate Monday afternoon as his colleagues prepared to vote for a $900 billion coronavirus relief package and told his fellow Republicans who backed the stimulus that they are no better than the Democrats they criticize who align themselves with socialism.

'To so-called conservatives who are quick to identify the socialism of Democrats: If you vote for this spending monstrosity, you are no better,' Paul said.

The House passed the relief package and lawmakers tacked on a $1.4 trillion catchall spending bill prior to the Christmas holiday. The relief package will send a $600 direct stimulus payment to most Americans, along with a new round of subsidies for hard-hit businesses, restaurants and theaters.

'If free money was the answer... if money really did grow on trees, why not give more free money?' he said. 'Why not give it out all the time? Why stop at $600 a person? Why not $1,000? Why not $2,000? Maybe these new Free-Money Republicans should join the Everybody-Gets-A-Guaranteed-Income Caucus? Why not $20,000 a year for everybody, why not $30,000? If we can print out money with impunity, why not do it?'....

The House voted 359-53 in favor of the relief bill. The bill combines coronavirus-fighting funds with financial relief for individuals and businesses. The 5,593-page legislation - by far the longest bill ever - came together Sunday after months of battling. Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin, a key negotiator, said on CNBC Monday that the direct payments would begin arriving in bank accounts next week."

Want Real Economic 'Stimulus'? End Economy-Killing Lockdowns Now -Issues & Insights

"Congressional negotiators, we're told, are inching ever closer to a deal for what's being called a 'second round of stimulus spending.' Sorry, but what's planned has nothing to do with supercharging the economy. Want to really 'stimulate' growth? End the foolish COVID-19 lockdowns that have decimated small businesses and hundreds of thousands of jobs.

The sound you'll no doubt soon be hearing is hundreds of Washington, D.C., politicians and policymakers clapping themselves on the back for the pending stimulus package.

As it now stands, the $900 billion-plus deal is likely to include 'direct payments to all Americans, funding for vaccine rollout and delivery, and an extension of unemployment benefits as well as much-needed aid to small businesses,' according to The Week.

But this is not 'stimulus' by any means. It is the economic equivalent of putting a dying patient on life support. So call this bill what it is. Government relief for a problem the government itself caused through mandated lockdowns....

It's the old Keynesian fallacy writ large. That government spending boosts the economy. It's false. It's the functional equivalent of transferring money from one pocket to the next and pretending you now have more money to spend. You've been 'stimulated.'

Not true. A major study of U.S. economic data under COVID-19 published by the National Bureau of Economic Research in November concluded that 'that traditional macroeconomic tools - stimulating aggregate demand or providing liquidity to businesses - have diminished capacity to restore employment when consumer spending is constrained by health concerns.'

Just as bad, the same study found that the Paycheck Protection Program spent an average of $377,000 for each job saved, and that school closures were seriously damaging the future income prospects of low-income minority students....

Already, policymakers view the COVID-19 pandemic not as a tragedy, but as a massive opportunity to increase the size of government, raise taxes to stratospheric levels, and limit long-cherished freedoms for people around the world.

They're arguing for a 'Great Reset,' in which global bureaucratic and political elites, along with corporations closely tied to governments, will make the world's economic decisions - not free markets, not supply and demand. This is no mere conspiracy idea; it's well on its way."

The Cyber Threat Is Real and Growing -Rogers/Wall Street Journal

"The SolarWinds breach could be the most significant cyber incident in American history. Russian intelligence - likely the SVR, the foreign-intelligence branch - infiltrated and sat undetected on U.S. government networks for nearly 10 months. It was a sophisticated, smart and savvy attack that should alarm the public and private sectors.

We may not know the full extent of the damage for some time. Don't be surprised if more government entities disclose that they too were victims of this attack. Don't be surprised either if it emerges that private companies were hit. SolarWinds says it has more than 300,000 customers, including 400 companies in the Fortune 500. That's a lot of potential victims.

It appears that this was purely an intelligence-gathering effort. The SVR sat on government networks collecting as much data as it could, whenever and however it wanted. It was less like tapping into phone lines and more like breaking into the library and wandering around.

Every country conducts espionage. That's not the alarming part. What is truly scary is that the Russians are inside the house now. Who knows where they've planted malware, corrupted or deleted data, locked users out of systems, or destroyed systems entirely? Turning off the system and uninstalling SolarWinds software isn't enough. It may take years and thousands of hours to unpack fully where the Russians hid themselves and their code....

The U.S. needs to respond in a smart, considered manner. Shutting off the lights in Moscow isn't an appropriate or proportional response. Disrupting the networks of the SVR or GRU - Russian military intelligence - may well be. If the U.S. doesn't define red lines today and demonstrate that there are consequences for crossing them, we will continue to be the victim of cyberattacks. The breaches will only get worse....

The SolarWinds damage is done, but it isn't too late to strengthen our cyber defenses, work to deter foreign actors, and prepare for future breaches. And there will be more."

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Dec 21, 2020


12.21.20 - Americans in Full Revolt Against Lockdowns

Gold last traded at $1,878 an ounce. Silver at $25.71 an ounce.

NEWS SUMMARY: Precious metal prices rose on safe-haven buying despite a firmer dollar. U.S. stocks fell as enthusiasm over a coronavirus stimulus deal was overwhelmed by worries over a viral new Covid strain in the U.K.

Gold and silver now in a perfect storm scenario -Wagner/Kitco

"Sadly, the events that began in March when the Covid-19 epidemic officially became a global pandemic has led to the current state of the economy. Actions by the Federal Reserve and the U.S. Treasury have resulted in a perfect storm of events that have taken gold to its highest price ever in August 2020. The fundamental events that have led to the series of massive rallies in gold and silver are still very much with us....

The timeline for the vaccines to become available to the general public is still many months away. This means that the economic contraction which has affected millions of Americans leaving them unemployed, and the millions of Americans that we're able to stay in their homes due to the moratorium on eviction are still in an extremely fragile and tenuous situation....

The fundamentals which have been at the root of recent gains throughout the year in gold remain fully intact at least until the beginning of the second quarter of 2021. More alarming is the fact that once the vaccine is available and enough individuals have created a herd immunity, the economic fallout that will occur will continue to grow, and the financial repercussions that this will cause will continue.

This is why I believe that we currently have a perfect storm scenario in which gold pricing will continue to rise, and over 2021 will trade to a new record high, as the U.S. dollar's value will continue to diminish."

central banking How Stimulus Kills the Economy -Bonner/Rogue Economics

"The 'experts' most in demand are those that tell the lies the public wants to hear. Such as"¦ how to bail out the U.S. economy....The experts say that if we just give people money, they will spend it. Businesses will make sales. Consumers will consume. It will look like a healthy economy again.

But where do the feds get the money? Never mind. You know as well as we do that they don't have any. The federal government is already scheduled for a $2 trillion deficit this fiscal year.

The feds will 'print' the currency...And, ultimately, one way or another, the 'money' the feds distribute today has to come from the people tomorrow. Well, that may not be so bad"¦ If drawing on the resources of tomorrow helps us out of a problem today"¦ what's so bad about that?

But wait"¦ The burden of today's letter is that the funny money does funny things to the economy. That is, the 'stimulus' actually depresses investment and output. Over the long haul, people will be worse off, not better.

According to Bonner's Law, bad capital drives out good capital. Free money is not just a fraud, but a curse. There is no example in history where giving people printing-press money - that is, money not connected to real products and services - ever did any lasting good....

Experts argued that classical theories of money and economics were all wrong. The new Modern Monetary Theory (MMT) taught that the government was the source of all money"¦ and that it should spend its money creating a better world for everyone.

They insisted, too, that the government - with its armies of Ph.D. economists - should decide how high stock prices should be"¦ how much it should cost to borrow money"¦ what the rate of 'inflation' should be"¦ how many people should be unemployed"¦ and what the 'capacity' of an economy ought to be.

Above all, they learned that when capitalism fails, the experts need to get to work. They need to give the people money. A bailout. A giveaway.... Not only do the giveaways turn valuable capital into a consumable"¦ they also reduce the economy's ability to produce. Everyone - except the insiders - gets poorer."

Americans Are in Full Revolt Against Pandemic Lockdowns -Tuccille/Reason

"Echoing New York Gov. Andrew Cuomo, New York City Mayor Bill de Blasio warned city residents this week to prepare for a 'full shutdown' as part of ongoing efforts to slow the spread of COVID-19. The two elected officials better not hold their breath waiting for compliance. Evidence from around the country shows that many Americans are thoroughly sick of impoverishing, socially isolating lockdown orders, and are revolting against the often-hypocritical politicians who issue them....

From coast to coast, businesses and individuals are ignoring restrictive rules that threaten their livelihoods, stifle social contact, and threaten to strangle the necessary interactions of everyday life.

'Another shutdown just isn't an option for us,' the Seven Sirens Brewing Company of Bethlehem, Pennsylvania, announced last week on its Facebook page. 'We, and thousands of other small businesses throughout the country simply will not survive. ["¦] After speaking with our bank, staff members, families, attorneys, and local government officials"¦we have decided we will not comply with future shutdown mandates. We will continue to operate with the same, proven-safe measures we implemented 5 months ago.'....

On the West Coast, many restaurants also open their doors to customers despite state orders to the contrary. 'While some of the larger chains and corporations are following the orders, many of the mom and pop shops say going to takeout only would put them out of business,' ABC News reported last week.

The city council in Solvang, a tourism-fueled community in Santa Barbara County, recently voted to ignore shutdown orders that threaten locals' livelihoods....

'As of today, 17% of restaurants - more than 110,000 establishments - are closed permanently or long-term' as a result of this year's economic distress, the National Restaurant Association announced on December 7. Fatigue with lockdown orders was predicted by experts months ago, and voiced by the public in growing numbers....

In distress and after due consideration, many Americans have decided that they shouldn't comply. Individually and in organized groups, often with the support of their communities, people are pushing back against lockdown orders that they find more threatening than COVID-19."

3 in 4 say 2020 pushed the country into an 'existential crisis' -StudyFinds

"From the pandemic to the presidential election, there's no question 2020 has been a turning point moment in United States history. Unfortunately, most believe the year's problems haven't left them in a good position moving forward. A new survey finds nearly eight in 10 Americans say 2020 caused an existential crisis for the country.

The OnePoll survey asked 2,000 Americans about their experiences throughout this tumultuous year and finds that 77 percent agree 2020 has sent the U.S. into crisis over its identity. Baby boomers are the most likely to agree with this statement (82%), compared to 76 percent of Generation X and 75 percent of millennial respondents.

As America deals with its major issues, it's no surprise that 65 percent of respondents feel like they've had their own personal crisis at some point during 2020. The survey, commissioned by Vejo, finds 68 percent of Americans said the year has left them feeling defeated....

With all of these events adding up, over half of respondents have felt too overwhelmed throughout the year to take proper care of their health and wellness. Fifty-six percent said they've been struggling now more than ever to find a wellness routine that works for them."

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Dec 17, 2020


12.17.20 - California Is the Grinch Killing Christmas

Gold last traded at $1,884 an ounce. Silver at $25.94 an ounce.

NEWS SUMMARY: Precious metal prices traded sharply higher Thursday on safe-haven buying and a weaker dollar. U.S. stocks rose as investors monitored progress on additional stimulus aid.

Gold jumps over 1% as surging virus cases renew stimulus hopes -CNBC

"Gold prices gained more than 1% on Tuesday, bolstered by expectations of more coronavirus relief aid in the United States as mounting COVID-19 cases renewed concerns over the pandemic's economic toll.

'There is the possibility of getting stimulus passed and that is what the gold market has been waiting for,' said Jeffrey Sica, founder of Circle Squared Alternative Investments. 'Most people have come to terms with the fact that the vaccine will stop the next wave, but will have very little to do with the current wave.'

A staggering COVID-19 U.S. death toll put pressure on lawmakers to roll out relief aid, buoying optimism around a $1.4 trillion bill. Gold, regarded as a hedge against likely inflation and currency debasement, has risen over 22% so far this year amid the unprecedented stimulus unleashed globally....

Silver jumped 2.7% to $24.45 an ounce, and palladium gained 1.9% to $2,336.62. Both metals rose more than 3% earlier in the session.

'Silver's dual roles as a precious metal and an industrial material makes it more appealing during times when economic activity is expected to rebound,' said Fawad Razaqzada, market analyst with ThinkMarkets."

grinch California Is the Grinch Killing Christmas, Small Businesses, and Maybe Even the Democratic Party -Bridge/American Consequences

"Governor Gavin Newsom has locked down California as though a tropical storm were about to make landfall. Yet the 'safety' measures mostly target the 'small guy,' and this hypocrisy could be the Democratic Party's undoing.

Residents of America's largest state once took pride in the maxim that commanded 'as goes California, so goes the country.' Today those words sound more like a curse than the promise it once held. But it didn't have to be that way.

Gavin Newsom, resembling a Roman consul drunk on power on the edges of empire, has announced stay-at-home measures that may ultimately prove deadlier than the pandemic it was meant to halt. Here are just some of the businesses his regime has ordered to be shuttered: hair salons and barbershops, personal care services, movie theaters, wineries, bars, breweries and distilleries, family entertainment centers and amusement parks....

Like so many other Democratic leaders who have taken draconian steps to halt the virus, Newsom's brutal strategy assumes people cannot be trusted to protect themselves"¦ Therefore, the brilliant idea of wrecking the economy in the name of 'safety' is considered the best possible solution. That's a cold slap in the face to his constituents, coming as it does in the middle of the holiday shopping season, which is make-or-break time for many small businesses....

If there was a single story that captures the palpable anger and frustration that has gripped citizens in this state of some 39 million souls, it would be hard to top that of Angela Marsden, the owner of Pineapple Hill Saloon and Grill in Los Angeles. In an effort to keep pace with the ever-mutating anti-COVID regulations, Marsden spent over $80,000 to construct an outdoor patio so she could keep serving customers amid the pandemic. With the latest lockdown measures, however, city officials denied her permission to serve clients on location - even in the parking lot. Unfortunately, the story does not end there.

To add insult to injury, the city granted permission for a film company to set up a large outdoor eating pavilion for its employees just yards away from where Marsden had built her outdoor patio....

Meanwhile, not even the Grinch governor could abide by his own rules. Last month, Newsom and his bejeweled wife were photographed at a lavish birthday party for some lobbyist at the upscale French Laundry restaurant, which included about a dozen people from several households - and not a surgical mask in sight. In other words, exactly the type of gathering - minus the filet mignon and Dom Perignon - Newsom's administration has cracked down on.

California's harsh response to the coronavirus, combined with the double standards from elitist Democrats, is already having consequences. First, conservatives are reportedly fleeing the state in droves....Gavin Newsom is playing with fire, and if he's not careful he may just destroy California and the Democratic Party with it."

Winning The (Keynesian) Beauty Contest -Calhoun/Alhambra Partners

"One of the hardest things to understand as an investor is that markets sometimes - often - don't line up with economic reality. Markets rarely reflect current economic conditions and at times they seem to discount a future that seems highly unlikely at best, and delusional at worst. That seems to be the case today, as stocks sit near all-time highs and the economic recovery falters in the face of the renewed virus outbreak....

The title of this article is a reference to the Keynesian beauty contest view of markets...Investing is not like the lottery where the numbers are what they are and you win or you don't. Investing is much more like poker where the cards are important but how the other players react is much more so. In investing, the data is important but much more important is how Mr. Market reacts to it.

Markets don't reflect the economy of today. Markets move based on the majority's view of how the present will change in the future. An investor's job is to judge whether that future is realistic, whether the economy can bridge the divide between where we are and where everyone thinks we're going....

Commodities have rallied strongly over the last month, even as the economic recovery has moderated. The V portion of the recovery is obviously over but markets - people - look ahead and they are increasingly positive about the post-pandemic future. That doesn't mean they'll be right of course, but economics is, more than anything, about human behavior, so maybe the markets are making the future rather than just reflecting some misplaced hope about it....

Right now, the dollar is in a downtrend and growth is rising. What has changed with the economy is the second derivative - the improvement is continuing but it is decelerating. Disposable personal income is up 5.7% over the last year with the help of various government income support programs.

The savings rate hasn't been this high since the 1970s. Some of that is no doubt precautionary, but some is due to a desire to avoid crowds and forced lockdowns. Regardless of the reason, savings is future investment or consumption so this isn't a bad thing....

Gold is still in a bull market but the correction from August continues...The long-term bull market is intact with real rates still in a downtrend."

If There's No Inflation, Then Why Do Inflation Expectations Keep Going Higher? -Zero Hedge

"Despite the very tame CPI reading, alternate measures of inflation were telling a different story. Chief among them are inflation expectations as priced by the Treasury bond market. Well, this week we again got another inflation data print that showed a rather subdued inflation backdrop....

Inflation expectations across the short to intermediate legs of the yield curve are hitting cycle highs again. Moreover, the message from the most inflation sensitive assets is confirming the message from inflation expectations.

This setup reminds us of the Groucho Marx/Richard Pryor line, 'who you gonna believe, me or your lying eyes?'....

Along with those inflation expectations, small stocks are outperforming big tech. Small stocks tend to be more sensitive to changes in inflation than larger firms....

We are getting similar confirmation within stock market sectors. Materials companies are outperforming consumer staples companies right on queue with inflation expectations rising....

Finally, the copper to gold ratio is telling us the same thing, that the bond market's inflation expectations aren't operating in a bubble....So who are you going to believe, the inflation indexes or the bond market? And, does it even matter? Financial asset prices are clearly choosing to believe in the bond market's take."

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Dec 16, 2020


12.16.20 - Is This the End of Cities in America?

Gold last traded at $1,856 an ounce. Silver at $24.96 an ounce.

NEWS SUMMARY: Precious metal prices steadied Wednesday on momentum buying and a weaker dollar. U.S. stocks traded mixed as traders weighed progress in U.S. fiscal stimulus talks and disappointing economic data.

GOLD: Fire Insurance For Burning Currencies -von Greyerz/Gold Switzerland

"After an extraordinary rally, gold recently entered an anticipated correction phase, which both math and history suggest is about to re-enter a continued trend dramatically upward. A primary driver for such sustained precious metal strength is an historically undeniable (as well as approaching) paradigm shift toward rising inflation....

It is critical to first distinguish true vs. popular notions of inflation. From the Austrian School to Milton Friedman, the true definition of inflation has always been understood (and measured) by money supply. As the supply increases, inflation follows. The popular/media-driven definition, however, uses consumer prices as measured by such broken scales as the CPI to measure inflation....Dishonesty at the policy level is nothing new. Since Nixon welched on the Gold Standard in 1971, policy makers have been acting like college party boys without a chaperone....

COVID and the misguided policy reactions thereto, have only accelerated such insane debt levels and the creation of fake money to pay for it-all of which points to more inflation-namely, the kind that kills currencies and sends gold prices significantly upward....

But Where's the Inflation?....'Price inflation' went to places like the S&P, not the deliberately false CPI. This explains why the DOW and S&P can break new highs as the real economy endures record lows....The next (and desperate) option, however, is to make one's currency weaker, inflate the same, and pay yesterday's debt with tomorrow's inflated/printed currency, a policy now openly embraced by the Dr. Frankensteins at the Eccles Building in D.C.

In the current paradigm shift, gold will rise not because gold only rises in inflationary periods (after all, gold recently hit new highs in an openly deflationary global setting). Instead, gold will rise simply because currency purchasing power will tank (and is already tanking) as inflationism progresses from a slow trot, to a cantor and then to a full gallop.

That is, gold will rise because currencies (diluted daily via money printing) are falling by the second. This is not an opinion, but a mathematical certainty."

Russia Russian government hackers compromised U.S. agencies, including Treasury and Commerce -Washington Post/MSN

"Russian government hackers breached the Treasury and Commerce departments, along with other U.S. government agencies, as part of a global espionage campaign that stretches back months, according to people familiar with the matter.

Officials were scrambling over the weekend to assess the nature and extent of the intrusions and implement effective countermeasures, but initial signs suggested the breach was long-running and significant, the people familiar with the matter said.

The Russian hackers, known by the nicknames APT29 or Cozy Bear, are part of that nation's foreign intelligence service, the SVR, and they breached email systems in some cases, said the people familiar with the intrusions, who spoke on the condition of anonymity because of the sensitivity of the matter. The same Russian group hacked the State Department and the White House email servers during the Obama administration....

The Russian Embassy in Washington on Sunday called the reports of Russian hacking 'baseless.' In a statement on Facebook it said, 'attacks in the information space contradict' Russian foreign policy and national interests. 'Russia does not conduct offensive operations' in the cyber domain.

All of the organizations were breached through the update server of a network management system made by the firm SolarWinds, FireEye said in a blog post Sunday....

'This is a big deal, and given what we now know about where breaches happened, I'm expecting the scope to grow as more logs are reviewed,' said John Scott-Railton, a senior researcher at Citizen Lab at the University of Toronto's Munk School of Global Affairs and Public Policy. 'When an aggressive group like this gets an open sesame to many desirable systems, they are going to use it widely.'"

Is this the end of cities in America? -The Hill

"This is the year that officially ended the boom of cities that started in the 1990s. The mirage of cities buffeted by white-collar jobs and supported by wealthy citizens willing to take on just one more tax increase is officially kaput. It is easy to blame the deluge on the coronavirus, but in reality a unique combination of factors heralded the end of the growth in places like New York while introducing population booms in medium-sized cities and suburbs across specific regions of the country. Significant populations of each social class decided it was no longer worth living in major metropolitan areas.

What developed this year is a cascade of residents leaving large cities in blue states. Among the biggest losers this year, in terms of total population loss, were New York, San Francisco, Los Angeles, Chicago and the District of Columbia. New York lost at least 300,000 residents this year. San Francisco saw 90,000 postal changes of address out of the city, while its median apartment rent took a nosedive of 20 percent in 2020. Los Angeles recorded more than 25,000 moves out of the city, while Chicago logged over 20,000. Even the District of Columbia lost 15,000 residents. Other cities that had sustained growth in the last decade also face severe drops in interest.

Residents who fled large cities in blue states overwhelmingly relocated to red-state cities, mostly in the Sun Belt or the West outside of California. Phoenix, already booming before the coronavirus, retained its spot as the fastest growing city in the country; its metro population now displaces Boston. The other overall winners in the demographic game this year are Nashville, where home prices continue to surge while real estate inventory is down 40 percent; Las Vegas, which tempted Bay Area techies to follow the Raiders to Sin City; Charlotte, which now has a larger population than San Francisco; and the greater Charleston area, which is likely the home of Boeing's next expansion and has benefited from manufacturing jobs moving south....

The trend is comprehensive: Mega-cities that have been traditionally led by the Democratic Party face the steepest loss in population while mid-level cities either stemmed the decline or have booming populations. For young people leaving college, or those entering into the middle of their careers, there is little allure left in these concrete jungles. The safe cities inspired by Rudy Giuliani that emerged in the 1990s are no more, with surging poverty and violent crime."

Covid-19 Vaccine Trial Volunteers Note Occasional Harsh Side Effects -Wall Street Journal

"Jocelyn Edwards wasn't sure she got Moderna Inc.'s experimental Covid-19 vaccine or a placebo when she received her first of two doses in August. Hours after the second shot, she said she was sure it was the genuine article.

'I woke up around midnight freezing,' said the 68-year-old retired nurse. 'For the next 24 hours I had intense chills, serious neck pain, headache, all my joints were aching.' She had a fever that peaked at 102.4 and poured out so much sweat that she lost 3 pounds, she said. The following day she woke up and felt fine. Ms. Edwards, like the other 30,000 volunteers who took part in Phase 3 clinical trials for Moderna's Covid-19 vaccine, wasn't told whether she got the vaccine or a placebo....

As the first vaccine from Pfizer Inc. and BioNTech rolls out this week and the next one from Moderna looks poised to start reaching people soon, some Americans have expressed reservations about getting vaccinated. One concern has been possible side effects. While the data show that some Moderna and Pfizer trial volunteers experienced side effects, even those who had harsh reactions recommend the shots....

Pfizer's vaccine, which uses technology similar to Moderna's, showed similar side effects, according to data released last week. Among its volunteers aged 18 to 55 receiving their second dose, 15.8% got a fever, compared with 0.5% of the placebo group; 35% got chills versus 4% of placebo recipients; and they also got more headaches and were more fatigued than those who got the placebo. Volunteers in both trials who received the vaccine also reported pain at the injection site more frequently than placebo recipients....

In both the Pfizer and Moderna trials, most side effects were reported as mild or moderate, and they occurred at a lower rate in older volunteers.

'It's a really good sign that there is a signal from your body that there is something different inside you,' said Paul Duprex, director of the Center for Vaccine Research at the University of Pittsburgh. 'It's being recognized by your immune system to make all important SARS-CoV-2 antibodies.' The FDA granted Pfizer's vaccine an emergency-use authorization on Friday and health-care workers started receiving the vaccine this week....

To reach herd immunity for Covid-19, public health authorities estimate that 60% to 70%, but possibly as low as 50%, of a given population would need antibodies to protect against infection. If Americans decline to be vaccinated in large numbers for any reason, including fear of side effects, it may cost the nation a chance to stamp out the disease."

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Dec 15, 2020


12.15.20 - Fake Science Destroying the Economy

Gold last traded at $1,853 an ounce. Silver at $24.54 an ounce.

NEWS SUMMARY: Precious metal prices rebounded sharply Tuesday on bargain-hunting and a weaker dollar. U.S. stocks rose on economic relief hopes and Covid-19 vaccines began to roll out nationwide.

The Covid-19 vaccine's 2 big challenges -VOX

"The US has authorized a coronavirus vaccine. That doesn't guarantee a quick end to the pandemic. America has, finally, authorized a Covid-19 vaccine for the general public. Priority groups - health care workers and people in nursing homes - are now starting to get a vaccine. And if things go right, most of the country could be vaccinated by the end of next summer.

But that's the caveat: if things go right. The development and authorization of a vaccine don't mean that the US is guaranteed to get people inoculated quickly, or even that the country is on a certain path to conquer the coronavirus. Experts caution, instead, that the country still faces two major challenges in its vaccination efforts.

First, the US has to manufacture and distribute a vaccine to more than 300 million people. As Johns Hopkins Center for Health Security senior scholar Crystal Watson told me, 'This is going to be the largest mass vaccination campaign that the US has ever attempted.' It's an effort so big, some experts have compared it to a New Deal. The logistical challenge isn't just to produce all the vaccine doses required, it's also shipping and storing them around the US at cold temperatures, and then administering them to people....

But even if the US is able to pull off a feat of logistics, a second challenge looms: People will need to be persuaded to get a vaccine. That this will happen is not guaranteed. Polls suggest as many as half of Americans are resistant to getting a Covid-19 vaccine. Those hesitant people will need their concerns addressed, including worries about whether the quick development process sacrificed safety, what common side effects are expected, and what rare side effects may pop up....

On the second challenge, experts say, the US is falling behind. When I asked if the country is prepared on the public opinion side for widespread Covid-19 vaccination, Texas State University medical anthropologist Emily Brunson told me, 'No, we're not.' So far, no real federal education and awareness campaign is underway. 'It would have been ideal to begin months ago,' Brunson said.

Experts caution that how the US deals with both these challenges could determine if Covid-19 remains a widespread problem by late 2021 or even 2022. It's what will decide whether we get back to normal, and how many lives are saved - or unnecessarily lost - along the way....

'If we do [vaccination] right, it can be positive and have long-term implications for public health generally,' Brunson said. 'But the opposite is also true: If this is done badly, you run the risk of undermining public trust in your entire public health system.'"

gold Ranking Asset Classes by Historical Returns (1985-2020) -Visual Capitalist

"Mirror, mirror, on the wall, is there one asset class to rule them all?

From stocks to bonds to alternatives, investors can choose from a wide variety of investment types. The choices can be overwhelming - leaving people to wonder if there's one investment that consistently outperforms, or if there's a predictable pattern of performance....

The top-performing asset class so far in 2020 is gold, with a return (21.9%) more than four times that of second-place U.S. bonds. On the other hand, real estate investment trusts (REITs) have been the worst-performing investments. Needless to say, economic shutdowns due to COVID-19 have had a devastating effect on commercial real estate.

Over time, the order is fairly random with asset classes moving up and down the ranks. For example, emerging market stocks plummeted to last place amid the global financial crisis in 2008, only to rise to the top the following year. International bonds were near the bottom of the barrel in 2017, but rose to the top during the 2018 market selloff....

Upon reviewing the historical returns by asset class, there's no particular investment that has consistently outperformed. Rankings have changed over time depending on a number of economic variables. However, having a variety of asset classes can ensure you are best positioned to take advantage of tailwinds in any particular year. For instance, bonds have a low correlation with stocks and can cushion against losses during market downturns.

If your mirror could talk, it would tell you there's no one asset class to rule them all - but a mix of asset classes may be your best chance at success."

The Fed's Fake Science Is Destroying the Economy -Bonner/Rogue Economics

"The government is broke"¦ already headed to a $2 trillion deficit for fiscal year 2021. Its pockets are empty. Its bank account is overdrawn. It has already looked under the seat cushions; there is nothing there. How, then, could it possibly help people in need? That's just one question"¦

'And why should it?' is another. Why does anyone think giving out fake money to offset a real downturn is a good idea? Or even giving out real money, for that matter?

If the economy needs a reset"¦ a recession to reprice assets and clean out bad investments and bad businesses"¦ why stop it?

Why should the unemployment rate be below 5% and not above 10%? Why should the Dow be near 30,000"¦ rather than closer to 15,000? Why not just let the chips fall where they may, in other words?

Where's the science behind that?....

Economics is no real science. It is mostly quackery mixed with flimflam.

But its practitioners nevertheless have Ph.Ds. And in the 20th century, they tried to upgrade their discipline from a subset of moral philosophy - don-t spend more than you earn! - to a pseudo-science, with numbers"¦ formulae"¦ sigmas"¦ alphas"¦ and deltas, too.

The foundational science of today's money system - monetarism - was a terrible mistake. It failed to appreciate the importance of the traditional gold standard. It thought it could do better with the Federal Reserve standard.

But while the U.S. dollar of 1913 (when the Fed was created) was just as good as the dollar of 1791 (when the dollar was created), the dollar of 2020 is worth, relatively, only about 3 cents! Why?

Because in a crisis, the temptation to 'print' more money is always irresistible. The Fed's balance sheet - a measure of how much printing is going on - was only 6% of U.S. GDP in 2008. By the end of 2021, it will likely be near 50%. Where's the science behind that?"

The New Frontier of Aging -Conley/MEA

"Policymakers better take note. My friend Andrew Scott, co-author of 'The 100-Year Life,' outlines the following in his essay for the International Monetary Fund entitled The Future of Aging for Policymakers.

'In 1965 there were 129 million people over 65 in the world; today there are nearly 750 million, and this figure is expected to reach 2.5 billion by 2100. The number of centenarians is also rising - from 20,000 in 1965 to a projected 19 million by 2100.'

The message is clear: anyone looking at what they think is a static society today better recognize that we are ill-prepared for people living this long. I'm not peddling fear here. I'm suggesting that employers start thinking about how they will seek out smart, motivated 75-year-olds who still 'got it.'

I'm suggesting that the future of housing will be very different from the recent past (although much like the distant past), with multigenerational households proliferating.

I'm also suggesting that certain places in the world are going to become havens for the 'young old' ('yolds'). People will move from focusing on their livelihood in the suburbs to moving to a 'lively 'hood.' Sun City and Rossmoor Leisure World represent the past, not the future....

One hundred years ago, 'adolescence' was an academic theory, and 'retirement' was ten years from becoming a mainstream concept. 'Midlife' didn't exist as a life stage. Over the 21st century, we're going to see remarkable changes in longevity and how we view a well-lived life."

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Dec 14, 2020


12.14.20 - Gold to Move 'Way Past' All-Time Highs

Gold last traded at $1,827 an ounce. Silver at $23.87 an ounce.

NEWS SUMMARY: Precious metal prices steadied Monday on a sharply weaker dollar despite upbeat vacccine news. U.S. stocks tried to shake off a downtrend on stimulus progress hopes and a vaccine rollout.

Billionaire Investor says gold prices to move 'way past' all-time highs -Kitco

"Silver may be Thomas Kaplan's first love as he sees the potential for the precious metal to eventually push to $100; however, he is also not giving up on gold as he sees the yellow metal in the third-wave of a secular bull market that will take it 'way past new highs.'

Many investors turned bullish on gold in mid-2020 as central banks and governments flooded financial markets with massive liquidity to support the besieged global economy, devastated by the COVID-19 pandemic; however, Kaplan noted that gold was already in a bull market long before the pandemic hit.

'All the pandemic has served to do is to make people now understand that the question of money and what is money when clearly it can be printed at will,' he said. 'The debasement of currencies is obviously very, very bullish for gold.'

Not only is gold backed by solid fundamentals as a monetary metal, but Kaplan noted that gold looks good from a supply and demand outlook. He said that he sees the industry struggling to replace the ounces of gold that it has produced." ESG

Federal Government Spending Nearly Twice as Much As It's Taking In -Nextgov

"Two months into fiscal 2021, the federal government has spent nearly twice as much money as it has taken in through revenue after posting a 14th consecutive month of deficit spending.

According to the Treasury Department spending data released Dec. 10, the federal government ran a $145 billion deficit in November, driven heavily by spending on Social Security benefits, health care and national defense. Combined with October's $284 billion deficit, the federal government has spent $887 billion in fiscal 2021 - nearly twice the $457 billion it has captured thus far through taxes and other forms of revenue.

The government's deficit spending follows a record-breaking fiscal 2020, wherein agencies combined to spend a record $6.5 trillion, with a total deficit of $3.1 trillion. A sizable portion of spending in late fiscal 2020 was driven by spending on coronavirus relief packages and some decreases in collected revenue. Congress is currently considering another COVID-19 relief bill worth more than $900 billion."

How to fix the post-COVID economy and keep the socialists at bay -Tucker/Fox News

"The year 2020 has been a tough one for a lot of Americans, but it's been especially difficult for the experts who claim to analyze data for a living. A lot of these people (pollsters, public health experts) have been exposed as frauds.

If you still don't know that dishonest people can easily manipulate data to tell you any story they want to tell you, consider the condition of our economy...People at the very top are thriving, but many other Americans are withering away. Tens of thousands of independent businesses have been shut down for good, entire sectors of the economy have been wiped off the map....

So what is our government's solution to the disaster they created? Well, more money from the Federal Reserve, printed out of nowhere and backed by nothing. Trillions of new dollars spent to fix a problem they created, and more on the way soon. Keep in mind, this is stimulus money, designed to help those hurt by the lockdowns. In many cases, it did help and it will help. But in many other cases, the money has gone to people with the right political connections....

You can't keep printing trillions of dollars without getting serious inflation. There's no getting around it. The people making these decisions know that perfectly well. But that's the secret: They want inflation. In fact, they need inflation. Why? Because they've gotten rich from debt. That's the real economy. Leverage is their entire business model. So for the finance class, inflation is the only way out of all that debt. When money is worthless, you owe less. Meanwhile, hard assets - like upscale real estate on Martha's Vineyard - will be worth more.

So inflation may crush you, but it will make the people making the decisions richer. Everyone else - regular wage earners, people living on fixed income, every middle-class retiree in the country, anyone who bothered to live like a responsible person and save money - will be in serious trouble when inflation arrives.That's not speculation. It's coming, and anyone who's paying attention knows it's coming."

[Ed. Note: On Friday, Dec. 11, 2020, Tucker Carlson had a very interesting interview with Ned Ryun discussing how, given all the proposed increased spending by Democrats in 2021, inflation could easily spin out of control into hyperinflation. If/when that happens, precious metals could become your only practical means of preserving wealth.]

Vision and Breathing May Be the Secrets to Surviving 2020 -Scientific American

"We are living through an inarguably challenging time. The U.S. has been facing its highest daily COVID-19 case counts yet. Uncertainty and division continue to dog the aftermath of the presidential election. And we are heading into a long, cold winter, when socializing outdoors will be less of an option. We are a nation and a world under stress.

But Andrew Huberman, a neuroscientist at Stanford University who studies the visual system, sees matters a bit differently. Stress, he says, is not just about the content of what we are reading or the images we are seeing. It is about how our eyes and breathing change in response to the world and the cascades of events that follow. And both of these bodily processes also offer us easy and accessible releases from stress.

Huberman's assertions are based on both established and emerging science. He has spent the past 20 years unraveling the inner workings of the visual system...And a small but growing body of research makes the case that altering our breathing can alter our brain.

This growing understanding of how vision and breathing directly affect the brain - rather than the more nebulous categories of the mind and feelings-can come in handy as we continue to face mounting challenges around the globe, across the U.S. and in our own lives.

According to Dr. Andrew Huberman: 'You can't control your heart rate directly. You can't control your adrenals with your mind. But you can control your diaphragm, which means you control your breathing, which means you control your heart rate, which means you control your alertness. You can control your vision, which thereby controls your level of alertness, your level of stress and your level of calmness. Vision and breathing are essential as levers or entry points to autonomic arousal because they are available for conscious control at any point.'"

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Dec 11, 2020


12.11.20 - Science Is But a Hypothesis

Gold last traded at $1,839 an ounce. Silver at $23.97 an ounce.

NEWS SUMMARY: Precious metals climb higher Friday on growing safe-haven demand. U.S. stocks traded lower amid setbacks on U.S. fiscal relief package.

Why is gold considered valuable, even today? -ZME Science

"Few metals throughout history can boast the same desirability as gold. It has served as a hard currency for virtually every civilization that had access to it, fueled exploration and exploitation, and directly underpinned the dominant economic policy for at least two centuries.

It is, by and large, one of the most valuable and impactful metals humanity has ever used, despite it being quite soft and very shiny. So what exactly made gold so valuable and expensive, and why did various peoples show such interest in beating it into coins? Surprisingly, it's not so much the properties that gold has, it's what other elements don't have. The fact that it's pretty and shiny also helps, too....

Ultimately, what you want in a coin is for it to be a small but dense repository of value so you can carry a lot of purchasing power easily, long-lasting so you can store it and it won't just waste away, distinctive (so it's easy to tell it's the real deal), in limited supply to some extent (either through natural or policy constraints), and safe to handle.

Which brings us neatly to gold. There are around 118 elements on the periodic table, most of them natural, some of them only seen in the lab for fractions of a second at a time. Not many of them are usable for coinage, because not many of them share in those traits listed above....

Gold is, to this day, seen as a solid repository of value. But the inability to control its supply (to either increase or decrease it) when needed shackled governments and rulers in regards to their fiscal policy. Once you link your coinage to gold and silver, your economy is at the mercy of how much of them is available in your area.

In olden, golden times, this wasn't much of an issue; economies were pretty small, local things that moved quite slowly, had low output, and limited technological ability. Gold's longevity, scarcity, portability, the fact that it was verifiable and safe to use made it an ideal tender, despite its limited supply....

Gold's properties made it ideal for the minting of coins...Gold has value because people say it has value - for its uses, its looks, or its association with status, wealth, and power."

science Science Is But a Hypothesis -Bonner/Rogue Economics

"Now in its tenth month in the U.S., the coronavirus is becoming as familiar as bad breath. And many of the things we knew for sure about it in March"¦ well"¦ we're not so sure anymore.

At first, we were told that face masks weren't important. Later, we were told that the public health officials simply lied scientifically; they were afraid people might buy up all the available masks"¦ thus depriving the 'first line defenders' of their precious armor.

Then, face masks became compulsory. 'The science' tells us that they help prevent the spread of the coronavirus. But if that were so, how come places that require face masks don't have lower case counts?

According to the COVID Tracking Project, there is no difference in caseloads between places where face masks are required by law"¦ and places where they are not.

We don't know whether face masks help or not. But neither do the 'scientists.' Today, we write with no new information. Instead, we have an old observation: Science is overrated.

Every society has its elites - people with brains, ambition, talent, and confidence. These elites turn to government to get power. Then, they use that power to get money.

But science is never fixed"¦ never solid"¦ never, ever figured out. Instead, it drifts on a river of uncertainty"¦ picking up useful insights along the way"¦ but never knowing where it is going, and never arriving at its final destination. One hypothesis is put forward. And then, discredited, another takes its place....

Scientists never know anything for sure. Everything is a hypothesis. And it is only valid until it is disproven. Always and everywhere is doubt....

Dear Readers who have been doing their homework also know that the 'science' supporting lockdowns"¦ close-outs"¦ and button-ups is weak, at best.

Wearing a mask may or may not prevent you from spreading the virus"¦ or from getting it; we don't know. But we also know that the Constitution was written to limit the power of the feds - even when there's a nasty bug going around."

"˜Suicide Is A Very Real Threat': Pandemic Depression New, Growing Disorder Linked To COVID-19 -CBS

"Pandemic depression is a new disorder linked to COVID-19 and it's growing. Research shows people in major metropolitan areas, like Philadelphia, are being hit harder by mental health challenges.

It's not just physical ailments as emergency departments are also being bombarded with the emotional fallout from the pandemic. Over a six-week period this summer in Montgomery County, 400 people went to hospitals because of self-injury or suicidal thoughts.

A new study in Britain shows school lockdowns are having a big impact on children.

'We found quite a substantial increase in ratings of depressive symptoms during lockdown,' said Duncan Astle, a developmental psychologist for the University of Cambridge.

The research tracked about 200 elementary students before and after the lockdown and found a 70% chance that depression increased with isolation.

'What the data suggests is you can't simply pluck a child from one context and isolate them from it without it having knock on consequences,' Astle explained.

Hannah Smith's decline started with the cancelation of a cheering championship.

'I had no motivation for anything, even school work,' Hannah said. 'I didn't care. I didn't get up and do anything.'"

The Best Is Yet to Come -Laffer/American Consequences

"There is little that I can say or write about the current wonderful state of affairs of the U.S. that Debbie Downers can't rebut. If you are hell-bent on making the negative case, there's no changing your mind. But if you're open to facts and logic, there's one hell of a good case to be made for being grateful for all we do have and to be optimistic about the future. And as an 80-year-old economist, I firmly believe that the glass is half full....

In the 1950s and 1960s, it was against the law for any store to sell products at a discount below the manufacturer's suggested retail price ('MSRP'). There was no Walmart, Costco, or Home Depot. Deregulation worked miracles, and we're a lot better off as a result. Today, retail price competition is the standard, and consumers are the winners.

Airlines and trucking were deregulated under President Jimmy Carter and championed by Senator Ted Kennedy, if you can believe it. Forty years later, real airline prices have dropped by half, and Americans travel by air five times more frequently. To boot, the reduction in airline prices has not come at the cost of safety, reduced wages, or lower customer satisfaction. And if you think air travel is better, just look at what Uber and Lyft are doing to make taxi prices and services better"¦ Wow!....

After some 40 years of literal stagnation, real median household income is at the highest level ever recorded as of 2019, and just posted the largest year-over-year increase at 6.8% from 2018 to 2019. Purchasing power for Americans is rising to unprecedented levels....

The impact of the coronavirus on both U.S. health and the economy could have been a lot worse than it was for two reasons. First, the economy was in an exceptionally strong state when the virus hit...Second, the medical facilities in the U.S. were also up to the challenge of a pandemic and responded quickly and effectively."....

The best is yet to come for America."

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Dec 10, 2020


12.10.20 - Locked Down in La La Land -WSJ

Gold last traded at $1,835 an ounce. Silver at $23.99 an ounce.

NEWS SUMMARY: Precious metals remained stable Thursday as the ECB expanded its bond-buying program by 500 million Euros. U.S. stocks traded mixed as U.S. jobless claims see sharp rise.

Gold Markets Continue to Look Very Healthy -Lewis/FX Empire

"Gold markets have rallied a bit during the trading session on Tuesday to break above the 50 day EMA. Ultimately, this is a market that is going to go looking towards the $1900 level, which is a large, round, psychologically significant figure, and a target for buyers....

The $1800 level is of course a large number that people will be paying quite a bit of attention to due to the fact that it was the scene of a major breakout previously. I do like the idea of buying dips going forward and I have no interest in shorting gold. The US dollar falling will continue to help gold, and I think that it is only a matter of time before that continues.

I am looking for value and I think that a lot of people will be as well. Gold has recently pulled back roughly 20%, and that of course will continue to attract a lot of value hunting for longer-term traders out there."

solar Saxo Bank Unveils Its 'Outrageous Predictions' For The Year Ahead -Zero Hedge

"Saxo Bank has released its 10 Outrageous Predictions for 2021. The predictions focus on a series of unlikely but underappreciated events which, if they were to occur, could send shockwaves across financial markets:

1. Amazon 'buys' Cyprus, 2. Germany bails out France, 3. Blockchain tech kills fake news, 4. China's new digital currency inspires tectonic shift in capital flows, 5. Revolutionary fusion design catapults humanity into energy abundance, 6.Universal basic income decimates big cities, 7. Disruption dividend creates Citizens Technology Fund, 8. A successful Covid-19 vaccine kills companies, 9. Sun shines on silver, which sizzles on solar panel demand, 10. Next-generation tech supercharges frontier and emerging markets.

It's an exercise in considering the full extent of what is possible, even if not necessarily probable, and particularly relevant in the context of this year's unexpected Covid-19 crisis. Inevitably the outcomes that prove the most disruptive (and therefore outrageous) are those that are a surprise to consensus. Commenting on this year's Outrageous Predictions, Chief Investment Officer at Saxo Bank, Steen Jakobsen said:

'Our not-so-outrageous prediction is that 2021 will bring the beginning of a reality check to the idea that 'extend and pretend' can stretch to infinity and beyond, even as markets have been pricing in that very expectation. Covid-19 has accelerated all major super-trends....'

The Outrageous Predictions 2021 publication is available here....

9. Sun shines on silver, which sizzles on solar panel demand...2021 brings the usual suspects that power silver higher on its hard asset/precious metal side as the US dollar weakens, and as investors are faced with the harsh reality of no relief in sight from negative real interest rates. This is exacerbated as inflation suddenly jolts higher in 2021 and policymakers are slow to respond, wanting to offer maximum support for their still-recovering economies. With a Covid-19 vaccine in rapid rollout by the middle of the year, the excessive liquidity and over-easy policy drives a powerful bid into any hard asset.

Turbocharging the rise in the silver price in 2021, even relative to gold, is the rapidly rising demand for silver in industrial applications. In fact, a real silver supply crunch is on the cards in 2021, and it frustrates the full throttle political support for solar energy investments under a Biden presidency, the European Green Deal, and China's 2060 carbon neutral goal, among other initiatives.

Another challenge on the supply side for silver is that more than half of mined silver supply is a by-product of zinc, lead and copper mining, making it tough for miners to meet the surging excess proportional demand for silver.

Trade: Long silver as the price races to an all-time high of $50 per ounce in 2021."

Locked Down in La La Land -Finley/Wall Street Journal

"On Sunday, Gov. Gavin Newsom's stay-at-home order shutting down nonessential businesses took effect across Southern California (the Bay Area locked itself down last week). 'Essential' is essentially a term of liberal politics.

During the state's first stay-at-home order this spring, cannabis shops were classified as essential. Ditto entertainment production. But hair salons and outdoor dining? Nope - unless of course these businesses cater to the state's entertainment industry.

A Los Angeles restaurant owner who had to close her outdoor patio posted an emotional video on social media late last week begging Gov. Newsom and Mayor Eric Garcetti to let her and other mom-and-pop restaurants reopen. Right across the street from her, she pointed out, a film studio had set up an outdoor cafeteria for its production workers.

Big-shot producers like Steven Spielberg and Jeffrey Katzenberg donate heavily to Democrats. But the Hollywood dispensation probably owes more to the political clout of production unions, including the Teamsters, which are worried studios will move production to other states like Georgia if they can't film in California....

Asked last Thursday about the scientific evidence to support the state's business closures and whether a ban on outdoor dining could lead to an increase in private gatherings, Mr. Newsom replied, 'The evidence you ask? Very significant evidence, overwhelming evidence.' He couldn't cite any.

Meantime, Democratic legislators led by Assemblywoman Lorena Gonzalez - a Teamsters member who championed the state's AB5 law reclassifying hundreds of thousands of independent contractors as employees - have sent a letter to Gov. Newsom beseeching him to reopen playgrounds, noting the disparate impact the closures have on low-income families without backyards. Maybe once kids, parents and small-business owners start paying union dues Mr. Newsom will start to care about their interests."

7 things to raise kids with flexible, resilient brains -Harvard psychologist Lisa Barrett/CNBC

"A child's brain is not a miniature adult brain. It is a brain born under construction that wires itself to the world. And it's up to parents to create a world - both physical and social - that is rich with wiring instructions.

Based on years of research in neuroscience and psychology, here are seven parenting rules to help your kid build a brain that is flexible and therefore resilient.

1. Be a gardener, not a carpenter. - Carpenters carve wood into the shape they want. Gardeners help things to grow on their own by cultivating a fertile landscape.

2. Talk and read to your child. A lot. - Research shows that, even when children are just a few months old and don't understand the meanings of words, their brains still make use of them.

3. Explain things. - It can be exhausting when your child is constantly asking, 'Why?' But when you explain something to them, you've taken something new and novel from the world and made it predictable.

4. Describe the activity, not the person. - When your son smacks your daughter in the head, don't call him 'a bad boy' Be specific: 'Stop hitting your sister. It hurts her and makes her feel annoyed. Tell her you are sorry.'

5. Help your children to copy you. - Have you noticed how some tasks that seem like work to you (i.e., cleaning the house or weeding a garden) can be play to a child? Children learn naturally by watching, playing, and most of all, by copying adults.

6. Expose children (safely) to lots of people. - Along with people that your kids may normally encounter - grandparents, aunts and uncles, friends, other kids - try to exposing them to as much diversity as you can, especially when they are infants.

7. Applaud agency. - Children love to try things on their own without your help, like getting dressed or assembling puzzles. This is good. You want them to develop a sense of agency."

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Dec 9, 2020


12.9.20 - How to Invest in Gold -WSJ

Gold last traded at $1,829 an ounce. Silver at $23.69 an ounce.

NEWS SUMMARY: Precious metal prices eased back Wednesday on profit-taking despite a weaker dollar. U.S. stocks traded mixed amid rising optimism around a $916B fiscal stimulus proposal and a coronavirus vaccine.

How to Invest in Gold -Ramkumar/Wall Street Journal

"Gold is an alternative to stocks and bonds that many investors use as a safe haven: an asset that can hold its value during times of market volatility or economic uncertainty. There are several different ways you can invest in gold from futures contracts to exchange-traded funds, and many on Wall Street recommend having at least a small portion of your portfolio invested in the metal through one of these methods.

When investors say they own gold, that typically means they hold one of the following assets: physical gold bars or coins; gold exchange-traded funds; gold futures; or shares of gold miners. There are nearly 200,000 metric tons of gold above ground in the world worth more than $11 trillion at today's prices, according to the World Gold Council.

A main reason to consider buying gold as an investment is to cushion your portfolio from volatility and economic uncertainty...Gold prices tend to rise when investors are worried about the economic outlook or geopolitical shocks, helping offset possible declines in stocks during times of market turbulence.

You can also use gold to hedge against rising inflation. Higher consumer prices mean it would take more dollars to purchase the same amount of gold, boosting the metal's price. Climbing inflation also means the dollar would weaken. A weaker dollar makes it easier for someone overseas to purchase dollar-denominated assets like gold.

Gold can also be used to bet on falling interest rates. Lower rates make gold more appealing by diminishing the returns you would expect from government bonds."

inflation The Biggest Janet Yellen Red Flag -Tamny/Real Clear Markets

"In Phishing for Phools, a 2015 book that George Akerlof co-authored with Robert Shiller, the authors wrote without even a hint of irony that people 'do not do what is really good for them, they do not choose what they really want.' Please think about the previous bit of absurdity from the two economists.

If they're to be believed, we're all just a collection of idiots. That's what their allegedly careful economic analysis concludes. Explicit in the authors' disdain for the hoi polloi is that we're all easy marks for manipulative advertisers who, backed by copious funds, can easily trick us into buying all manner of things we don't need. Better yet, they can allegedly trick us into doing what we otherwise wouldn't do....

Akerlof, the co-author of what might be one of the most ridiculous books on 'economics' ever written, is married to Treasury secretary nominee Janet Yellen. Much more important, Akerlof recently told the New York Times that he and Yellen have 'always been in all but perfect agreement about macroeconomics.' If so, it might be useful for the senators questioning Yellen at her Treasury confirmation if near 'perfect agreement' between her and her husband includes admiration for Phishing for Phools?....

While Yellen is surely smart in the book sense, there's absolutely nothing remarkable about her economic knowledge. In truth, her ideology is very unoriginal, and is rooted in the hard-to-credit view that economic growth can be engineered via the forced redistribution of wealth from producers to consumers."

Our National Debt Denial -Cochrane/National Review

"The U.S. has avoided a debt crisis for decades. That doesn't mean it can't happen, absent real policy changes.

Does debt matter? As the Biden administration and its economic cheerleaders prepare ambitious spending plans, a radical new idea is spreading: Maybe debt doesn't matter. Maybe the U.S. can keep borrowing even after the COVID-19 recession is over, to fund 'investments' in renewable energy, electric cars, trains and subways, unionized public schools, housing, health care, child care, 'community development' schemes, universal incomes, bailouts of student debt, state and local governments, pensions, and many, many more checks to voters.

The argument is straightforward. Bond investors are willing to lend money to the U.S. at extremely low interest rates...What could go wrong? This scenario requires that interest rates stay low, for decades to come, and remain low even as the U.S. ramps up borrowing. The scenario requires that growth continues to outpace interest rates. Most of all, this scenario requires that big deficits stop....

Yet an end to big borrowing is not in the cards. The federal government borrowed nearly $1 trillion in 2019, before the pandemic hit. It borrowed nearly $4 trillion through the third quarter of 2020, with more to come....

The end must come in sharp and sudden inflation or default. And that is a catastrophe. When Washington can no longer borrow, our normal crisis-mitigation policies disappear - the flood of debt relief, bailout, and stimulus that everyone expects - together with our capacity for military or public-health spending to meet the roots of the crisis.

Yes, the U.S. prints its own money and Greece does not. But that fact only means that a crisis may end in sharp inflation rather than chaotic default. And it is not obvious that the U.S. government will choose inflation over default."

Remote Work Is Here to Stay and That's a Good Thing -Tuccllle/Reason

"Since the beginning of the pandemic, businesses able to shift their employees to remote work have done so with varying degrees of eagerness. Telecommuting became a lifeline for operations that were resistant to work-from-anywhere arrangements in the past but found them to be the only way to continue operating amidst lockdown orders and public fear of infection. But will the changes stick for the long term? Or will workplaces revert to their pre-pandemic forms?

It's looking more and more like there's no reason for some of us to change out of pajamas; the evidence suggests that remote work has been a boon for many people and is here to stay. That has big implications for expanding people's choices about where they live and why. But it may also widen the divide between those can work where they live and those who must live where they work.

'More than 20 percent of the workforce could work remotely three to five days a week as effectively as they could if working from an office,' the U.S.-based consulting firm McKinsey & Company reported in November...'If remote work took hold at that level, that would mean three to four times as many people working from home than before the pandemic and would have a profound impact on urban economies, transportation, and consumer spending, among other things.'....

Part of the stickiness of remote work arrangements may be that their time has come. The technological capability has existed for many years for desk-based jobs to be performed from anywhere, yet managers were often hesitant about allowing employees out of their sight. COVID-19 overcame that hurdle for many businesses.

The pandemic has helped workers and organizations overcome inertia related to the costs of experimentation, as well as inertia stemming from biased expectations about working from home. Importantly, too, the experience has proven positive for workers and employees alike....'Many workers report being more productive at home than on business premises, so post-pandemic work from home plans offer the potential to raise productivity as much as 2.4 percent,' say BFI researchers....

For those who do benefit from increased acceptance of remote work, life should become a bit easier. People will enjoy increased opportunities to live where they want while working jobs that appeal to them. Couples won't have to prioritize one partner's employment over another's. Able to do our jobs from where we please, life for many of us will, happily, reflect a bit more of what we want rather than what we have to do to get by."

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Dec 8, 2020


12.8.19 - Facts - Not Fear - Will Stop the Pandemic

Gold last traded at $1,870 an ounce. Silver at $24.60 an ounce.

NEWS SUMMARY: Precious metal prices advanced again Tuesday, gaining over 5% so far in December, amid rising uncertainty and a falling dollar. U.S. stocks fell as traders kept an eye on negotiations for additional fiscal stimulus while the U.S. coronavirus caseload continued to rise.

Gold Prices Have Soared. Expect More of That in 2021. -Saefong/Barrons

"Gold prices have climbed sharply in 2020, but they are still off more than 10% from the record high in August. The moves cap a year rocked by a pandemic that led to economic restrictions and fiscal stimulus measures, feeding the precious metal's appeal as a haven investment.

Many of these same reasons are expected to lift prices in the new year. 'It is likely that the uncertainty of how the economy is going to recover and how fast and large the recovery will be, coupled with increasingly historical levels of fiscal and monetary stimulus, puts gold on the path of a bull run for several years,' says Ed Moy, a former director of the U.S. Mint, who is currently chief strategist at gold seller Valaurum....

For the year, soaring debt ratios in major economies and 'monetary and fiscal stimulus leading to increases in money supply' were the top two factors for gold's rise, says Peter Grosskopf, chief executive officer of Sprott. 'Heightened uncertainty and fear due to the pandemic' ranked third, though he believes Covid-19 accelerated the first two factors.

To Moy, however, the pandemic and the economic uncertainty it caused, increased demand for haven assets, and the limited supply of gold, along with massive amounts of stimulus measures in a short period, were the key reasons for gold's gain this year....

Grosskopf sees the recent pullback in gold as 'a healthy correction and a buying opportunity,' for investors. In 2021, prices should rally to more than $2,000, with a climb to fresh record highs by mid-year, he says."

back to normal No, the World Economy Will Not Return to "Normal" -Bonner/Rogue Economics

"Investors believe - correctly - that more money is on the way. And though the bailout is meant to fill nearly all the glasses at the bar, stock market investors expect to get especially sloshed. The other reason (if the word can be used in such a loony context) stock prices are so high is that investors expect a vaccine will soon bring the coronavirus to heel, allowing the world economy to return to 'normal.'

This is extremely unlikely. Normal is not on the menu. Debt has reached such high levels that any return to normal interest rates will be disastrous.

So vaccine or no vaccine, the feds have to keep printing more and more money, just to keep interest rates low (they use it to buy bonds, thereby driving up bond prices"¦ and driving down interest rates). This will create more distortions, crises, crashes"¦ and ultimately, a total collapse of the U.S. economy.

But the debacle will take years to fully express itself. 'Normal,' we predict, will not return during our lifetimes.

When the money gets out of whack, so do prices. In the 1999 bubble, it was dot-com stocks. In the 2007 bubble, it was the mortgage finance companies. And now?....

Tesla produces electric cars. Its margins are determined by the difference between the cost of making the cars and the money it brings in from sales and service - now about 6 cents per dollar of revenue. And its future depends, mostly, on how many cars it can sell.

Today's stock market valuation suggests that the company would have to generate $600 billion in sales in order to justify the current share price...About $1.8 trillion in sales revenue. ...Goldman Sachs is setting a new price target for Tesla - over $700 billion. At that price, an investor relying on current net income to make himself whole will wait more than 1,000 years!....

But Tesla is just one of many stocks that are trading in cuckoo land. The averages are at their highest levels since"¦ well, since they were last in cuckoo land, in 1999 and 2007. And it seems unlikely that Mr. Market would take prices back to the cuckoo land of 1999 and 2007"¦ without wanting a rerun of the crashes of 2000 and 2008, too.

What will Tesla be worth then?"

Why the US dollar could be the big loser of 2021 -Horowitz/CNN

"The US dollar is on the back foot, and Wall Street doesn't expect that to change any time soon.

What's happening: The dollar has weakened by nearly 12% against a basket of top currencies since peaking in March. Last week, it hit its lowest level since April 2018. The last time the greenback was on the skids like this was 2017. The slump can be explained by a few factors, strategists say.

Faith in the global recovery: When the US and global economy are performing strongly, the dollar - a safe-haven currency - tends to weaken....

Central bank policy: The Federal Reserve has made clear it will keep interest rates low and keep printing money for as long as necessary to stimulate the US economy....

Tariffs have contributed to a stronger dollar in recent years... In disputes with countries like China, President-elect Joe Biden is expected to rely more on other tools. That's a positive for global growth, and a negative for the dollar....

Another effect: Other currencies like the euro have been rapidly appreciating in part because of the dollar's decline...'This is a broad-based dollar weakening move driven by global reflation repricing,' said George Saravelos, a Deutsche Bank analyst."

Facts - Not Fear - Will Stop the Pandemic -Dr. Bhattacharya/AIER

"The media relish negative news. 'If it bleeds it leads' still holds, and perhaps it's never been truer than in the COVID-19 era. Every day the news highlights the spread of the virus and tells the sad stories of some of its victims.

And yet, much of the media does not pay sufficient attention to the good news regarding improved treatments and survival of patients with the coronavirus....

The case fatality rate from the virus has dropped sharply since March. The infection survival rate is 99.95 percent for people under 70 and 95 percent for people over 70. Hospitals are much better equipped to handle patients, with improved ventilator protocols, improved management of outpatients and new therapeutic strategies to provide relief and recoveries. Moreover, thanks to multiple ongoing clinical trials around the world, there may soon be a safe and effective vaccine.

By contrast with their focus on COVID deaths, the media have paid scant attention to the enormous medical and psychological harms from the lockdowns in use to slow the pandemic.

By lockdowns, we mean the all-too-familiar shuttered schools and universities, closed playgrounds and parks, silent churches and bankrupt stores and businesses that have become emblematic of American civic life these past months. The relative dearth of reporting on the harms caused by lockdowns is odd, since lives lost from lockdown are no less important than lives lost from COVID infection. But they've received much less media attention....

Internationally, the lockdowns have placed 130 million people on the brink of starvation, 80 million children at risk for diphtheria, measles and polio, and 1.8 million patients at risk of death from tuberculosis. The lockdowns in developed countries have devastated the poor in poor countries. The World Economic Forum estimates that the lockdowns will cause an additional 150 million people to fall into extreme poverty, 125 times as many people as have died from COVID....

Finally, the neglect of the good COVID news breeds panic and fear, which is never a good public health strategy...With wise and informed policy choices, we can reduce its ultimate toll of death and human misery."

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Dec 7, 2020


12.7.20 - Hype Surrounds ESG Investing

Gold last traded at $1,858 an ounce. Silver at $24.41 an ounce.

NEWS SUMMARY: Precious metal prices traded sharply higher Monday on safe-haven buying and a weaker dollar. U.S. stocks traded mostly lower as Covid-19 cases continued to rise and Wall Street searched for clues on additional fiscal aid.

Is Gold Bullish Again? -Rosputnia/FX Empire

"Gold is a safety hedge in an uncertain world. There is no surprise we saw a massive sell-off with Covid vaccines being announced. Both vaccines are still waiting on final FDA approval. The real game-changer however could be Johnson & Johnson's vaccine which only requires one shot and no special refrigeration outside that already widely required for current vaccines. Johnson & Johnson are expected to have interim data on its vaccine sometime in January which could mean emergency use authorization as soon as February.

So overall, the vaccine news is still very promising. However, the damage to the economy is already done and it will take years to recover after COVID. Despite massive stimulus key economic data is very weak. Last week gold rebuilt its correlation with the greenback. MA200 turned out to be a buyers zone....

Formation of higher low or kind of base formation is needed to have confidence in buying gold. However, we already can identify a bullish setup: Cycles point we are close to the bottom and new rally. The seasonal indicator is turning to the upside. The valuation model shows gold is undervalued...There are early signs gold is getting ready for the next wave up with another flagging formation....Lets not forget the huge government debt and potential asset bubble. Gold and Dollar are both means of safe haven."

ESG The Hype Surrounding Environmental, Social, And Governance Investing -Wright/AIER

"ESG (environment, social, and governance) funds are the hottest investments going. The only problem is that they are like free trade coffee - the consumer (investor) pays more for the same product. They might 'feel good' in the process but their feelings are irrational because they are paying for a brand label rather than anything substantive.

A recent study by Barclays shows that while one in four investment dollars are currently in mutual funds labeled ESG, most investors do not realize that those funds are virtually indistinguishable from non-ESG-labelled funds in terms of portfolio composition or returns. Only fees differ and, unsurprisingly, are considerably higher for ESG-labeled funds - on average almost 0.75 percent vs. less than 0.50 percent for non-ESG-labeled funds.

P.T. Barnum once claimed that there is a sucker born every minute but thanks to population growth and an increasingly complex world, it is closer today to every second....

Organic food fraud is small potatoes compared to ESG-labelled funds. If they charge just 0.25 percent higher fees for essentially nothing extra in return, irrational investors are gifting the fund managers big bucks, billions of extra fees per year in an industry with $18 trillion under management.

No, I do not think we need additional government regulation, I think we need investors (citizens, neighbors) who are rational and informed, who care about actual outcomes and not just feeling good through virtue signalling. It is no virtue, after all, to invest in something merely because it is labelled something that sounds or seems good....

So what is ESG really about? I doubt anything substantive but, perhaps, someday ESG-labelled funds will actually be ESG funds, or in other words will meaningfully differentiate between ESG and 'wicked' companies. But then, as the Financial Times recently pointed out, they will face a conundrum. To the extent ESG successfully diverts investment away from 'wicked' companies, their share prices will decline, i.e., they will become inexpensive and hence set up to outperform so long as any subset of investors continues to maximize returns/minimize waste. Meanwhile, the shares of ESG companies will get wicked expensive as more and more money piles into them....

In the end, then, the hip hop group Public Enemy was actually the investing public's friend; when it comes to ESG, 'Don't Believe the Hype' because investors 'Can't Truss It.'"

America's hidden depression -Rabouin/Axios

"There is a recovery happening. But it's helping some people immensely and others not at all...Two big reasons: 1. Big business, investors, and the wealthy are thriving. But restaurant and bar employees, hotel and airline staff, and other service workers are in a pretty hopeless situation right now: A 'depression' is an apt description of what they're facing - especially folks in rural and middle America who are parents.

700,000 Americans have been filing unemployment insurance claims every week for 37 weeks - nine months. Plus, 20 million people are still on the pre-pandemic unemployment rolls. 2. As Axios has been telling you, government statistics - because of the way they've always been reported - understate lots of red flags.

The official unemployment rate has been dropping, but that's because: It never really counted gig economy workers well in the first place. Its data collection abilities have been severely crimped by the pandemic. Lots of people are falling out of the labor force - not working and not looking. What's next: 13.4 million people are on pandemic unemployment programs that expire at the end of the year - 27 days from now. That's unheard of, and incredibly bad."

Walter Williams Achieved Goal of Dying While Teaching -Sowell/Townhall

"Walter E. Williams (1936-2020) loved teaching. Unlike too many other teachers today, he made it a point never to impose his opinions on his students. Those who read his syndicated newspaper columns know that he expressed his opinions boldly and unequivocally there. But not in the classroom.

Walter once said he hoped that, on the day he died, he would have taught a class that day. And that is just the way it was, when he died on Wednesday, December 2, 2020.

He was my best friend for half a century. There was no one I trusted more or whose integrity I respected more. Since he was younger than me, I chose him to be my literary executor, to take control of my books after I was gone.

But his death is a reminder that no one really has anything to say about such things. As an economist, Walter Williams never got the credit he deserved. His book 'Race and Economics' is a must-read introduction to the subject. Amazon has it ranked 5th in sales among civil rights books, 9 years after it was published....

Despite his opposition to the welfare state, as something doing more harm than good, Walter was privately very generous with both his money and his time in helping others. He figured he had a right to do whatever he wanted to with his own money, but that politicians had no right to take his money to give away, in order to get votes....

We may not see his like again. And that is our loss."

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Dec 4, 2020


12.4.20 - Bears Vindicated As Dollar Spirals

Gold last traded at $1,834 an ounce. Silver at $24.11 an ounce.

NEWS SUMMARY: Precious metal prices rose Friday on bargain-hunting and a weak dollar. U.S. stocks seesawed amid a disappointing jobs report and worsening pandemic.

Gold Prices Rise as the Dollar Continues to Slide -FX Empire

"Gold prices rebounded for a second consecutive trading session after recapturing the 200-day moving average. The dollar index closed at a 31-month low paving the way for higher gold prices. The US Beige book was darker than expected as regions in the US show no growth. ADP private payrolls came in softer than expected but failed to weigh on US yields.

Resistance is seen near the former breakdown level at 1,851. Short-term momentum has turned positive as the fast stochastic generated a crossover buy signal. The current reading on the fast stochastic is 31, up from 18, which reflects accelerating positive momentum.

Private companies added 307,000 jobs in November below the 475,000 expected. The October figure was revised higher to 404,000. This was the smallest gain since July's 216,000."

dollar Dollar Bears Vindicated as Spiral Accelerates -Bloomberg/Yahoo Finance

"It's turning into a week of vindication for proponents of a weaker dollar as the case they've been making for years may be gaining steam.

The greenback is spiraling lower, probing levels last seen in April 2018, judging by a Bloomberg index. The tumble is part of a broader move across financial markets to price in brighter growth prospects for 2021 and the potential for superior investment opportunities outside the U.S., in large part as hopes for a coronavirus vaccine build.

Dollar bears are feeling encouraged by the breadth of the currency's declines this week: The euro, the Australian and Canadian dollars and the Korean won have all touched their highest levels in more than two years, while the Swiss franc is at its strongest since 2015. The pound is at the highest in a year, even amid the uncertainty surrounding Brexit.

'We are seeing money being put back to work after the defensive positions held in the dollar,' said Chris Turner, a currency strategist at ING Groep NV. 'Vaccine news is adding weight to the view of a synchronized global upturn in 2021; the dollar can fall another 5-10% next year.'

More weakness in the greenback may come as asset managers build record short bets. The Congress's renewed focus on fiscal stimulus in recent days delivered the latest blow to the dollar."

Coronavirus-Stimulus Efforts Pick Up Speed -Wall Street Journal

"Democratic leaders signaled Wednesday they were prepared to reduce their demands for the next round of coronavirus relief, fueling hopes that an agreement could be reached with Republicans by year's end to boost struggling businesses and households.

House Speaker Nancy Pelosi (D., Calif.) and Sen. Chuck Schumer of New York, the chamber's Democratic leader, said that a new, bipartisan $908 billion coronavirus relief proposal released Tuesday should serve as the starting point for talks to try to resolve months of disagreement with GOP leaders and the White House.

Democrats had coalesced earlier around a $2.4 trillion bill passed in the House, which contains measures including funding for state and local governments and food stamps, among others, which GOP proposals have excluded. Republican leaders' most recent bill cost around $500 billion. But on Tuesday, a new bipartisan group unveiled the $908 billion proposal, designed to help buoy workers and businesses through March....

Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell (R., Ky.) didn't comment on the Democratic leaders' statement, but he said earlier in the day that they were showing 'a new willingness to engage in good faith.'....

'The president will sign the McConnell proposal that he put forward yesterday,' Mr. Mnuchin said Wednesday. Mr. Mnuchin said the White House was reviewing the new bipartisan proposal. President Trump hasn't weighed in on the discussions, but White House press secretary Kayleigh McEnany said Wednesday that Covid-19 aid was a priority."

Tesla Isn't A Car Company -Calhoun/Alhambra

"The most common view of stocks is that they are overvalued and a fall - a large fall - is inevitable. And there is no stock that embodies that view more than Elon Musk's Tesla Incorporated.

It was once known as Tesla Motors but Musk changed the name in early 2017. At the time of the change the stock traded for about $50 and it was expensive for a car company. Today it trades for $585 and it is not, as I have been told repeatedly by every Tesla bull I've encountered, an automobile company....

Of the FANMAG stocks everyone is so enamored with (Facebook, Apple, Netflix, Microsoft, Amazon, and Google), only one trades for more than 10 times sales (Microsoft at 11 times). Amazon, the stock all value investors have shunned due to its 'insane' valuation is the cheapest of the bunch at just 4.7 times sales.

Tesla stock, meanwhile, trades at a nose bleed inducing 21.5 times sales. Not being a mere car company allows investors - and I use that term very loosely - to imbue the company with qualities that cannot be quantified. Tesla is whatever investors can imagine might emerge from the obviously brilliant mind of Elon Musk. Tesla is indeed 'not a car company'. It is an abstraction and therefore un-valuable, if not invaluable....

Tesla is not an isolated case. Indeed, I think global financial assets in general are viewed in very much the same way as Tesla. 'Investing', as practiced by the new indexers, is no longer an exercise of valuing assets and liabilities, assessing business plans, or understanding industry dynamics. It no longer requires knowledge of such fundamental metrics as price/sales, price/earnings, or, heaven forfend, such anachronistic concepts as book value....

Tesla has been a wildly profitable speculation, exhibiting classic momentum characteristics. Its price is rising because its price is rising. And that describes large parts of the markets today, where uninformed speculation has driven prices to levels that are hard to justify based on realistic expectations about the future....

Markets today are dominated by speculators, people who don't know what they own and don't care, as long as the price goes up. We are not speculators. We are investors and we think it matters quite a lot how one achieves portfolio returns. From Tesla to Bitcoin to any of the other of today's overly popular assets, a rising price does not magically transform a speculation into an investment. I don't know when fundamentals will matter again, but I am certain they will. And when they do Tesla will be just a car company again."

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Dec 3, 2020


12.3.20 - Stocks: "100% Loss Probability"

Gold last traded at $1,839 an ounce. Silver at $24.10 an ounce.

NEWS SUMMARY: Precious metal prices traded mixed Thursday on upbeat jobs data and a weaker dollar. U.S. stocks steadied as investors monitored progress on a stimulus deal as well as new economic data.

Stocks Are "Overbought And Frothy" Warns Wall Street's Most Accurate Analyst -Zero Hedge

"Two weeks ago we dubbed Morgan Stanley's Michael Wilson, the bank's chief US equity strategist, Wall Street's most accurate forecaster. Here's why:

Over the past year, Morgan Stanley's Michael Wilson has done something virtually none of his colleague have been able to do: he called market moves correctly before they happened and also timed the market's inflection points with uncanny precision: turning bullish at the depths of the March crisis, when most of his peers were apocalyptic, then remaining bullish until just over a month ago, when he warned "brace for a very difficult trading environment over the next five weeks" - which followed with the early September tech dump - and then two weeks after he again correctly predicted that US stocks were due for their second 10% correction in as many months as "investors were a bit too complacent on the uncertainty surrounding the election outcome, unlikely passage of a fiscal stimulus before the election and second wave of Covid-19", the S&P 500 has indeed fallen 9% while the Nasdaq and Russell 2000 have fallen 10% and 7%, respectively.

He was, again, right.

Then, at the start of November, he reversed his bearish bias, when as we reported he predicted that "the correction we expected is now mostly finished and adding to equities on further weakness this week is recommended."

Since then, the S&P is up +13.5% to a new all time high, the Nasdaq is up +10.8% also to a record high, and after today's Pfizer news, the Russell has exploded 16% higher.

In short, he was right again.

Wilson ... cautioned that in the last few remaining weeks of 2020 he saw the risk of yet another drawdown in stocks, which would be the third 10% correction since September. This will be catalyzed by the market's realization of the "bad news" that "the vaccine won't be ready for mass distribution for another 3-4 months as case counts and deaths increase." Still, once this small correction is in the rearview mirror, which perhaps may even trigger additional Fed easing during the Dec FOMC meeting when the Fed is expected to extend the maturity of its TSY purchases, Wilson remains "a steadfast bull on a 12-month view in terms of both the earnings outlook and the market."

fear vs greed Citi Warns "100% Probability Of Loss" In Most "Euphoric" Market Since Dot Com Bubble -Zero Hedge

"Sometimes 'greed' is not good. The last time the market was this 'extreme' in its greed did not end well, but as FOMO dominates any downside fears, Citigroup's Panic-Euphoria indicator - which tracks metrics from margin debt to options trading and newsletter bullishness - has reached its highest since the August tumble and equaled its highest since the peak of the dotcom bubble.

'Current euphoric readings signal a 100% probability of losing money in the coming 12 months if we study historical patterns - indeed, we saw such levels back in early September as well right before a selloff in stocks.'

All of this exuberance as Bloomberg notes that uncertainties from the timing of further fiscal stimulus to the roll-out of a vaccine to the pace of economic recovery remain...As Peter Boockvar, chief investment officer at Bleakley Advisory Group, warned: 'The Bull boat right now is standing room only.' When does FOMO morph into OHNO?"

How Much Debt Is Too Much? -Ragan/Project Syndicate

"The new conventional wisdom in these unconventional times is that advanced-economy governments can take advantage of today's ultra-low interest rates to borrow and spend without limit in order to support the economy. But the fact is that there is always a limit, and it may come into view sooner than many realize.

As the COVID-19 pandemic rages, governments in advanced economies have opened their coffers to support households and small businesses, spending on the order of 15-20% of GDP in many cases. Cumulative debt levels now exceed GDP in many developed countries; and, on average, debt as a share of GDP is approaching post-World War II highs....

In this strange world of ultra-low interest rates, what limits are there on government borrowing? According to advocates of Modern Monetary Theory (MMT), there are none, at least not for countries that issue debt in their own currency and have spare productive capacity. After all, the central bank can simply print money to pay off maturing debt, and this should not result in inflation as long as there is sizable unemployment. No wonder MMT has become the go-to idea for politicians advocating government spending to alleviate every problem.

Of course, any 'theory' that promises a free lunch should be approached with skepticism....The monetary financing advocated by MMT is just smoke and mirrors....Advanced economies will not become Zimbabwe any time soon - if ever. But some of them are permeated by divisive politics that typically encourages higher spending but not higher revenues - as many an emerging market can attest. If so, it would not be surprising to see somewhat higher inflation in a few years. This is not an argument for immediate austerity...Public spending, however, must be sensible, not based on magical monetary thinking."

All the Happiness Money Can Buy in the Winter of Covid-19 -Carmichael/Bloomberg/Yahoo

"As the saying goes, money can't buy happiness. That certainly seems to be true in 2020 - rates of depression and anxiety are up, even though many households have more cash on hand than usual. Savings rates in the U.S. spiked to a previously unfathomable 34% in April and sat at a still-high 14% in September.

There must be some way to use this extra cash to brighten our spirits. Even if gyms, cafes, hotels and restaurants aren't safe. Even if travel is restricted. Even if the best things in life are free....

To find out whether it's realistic to throw money at the problem of Covid-induced unhappiness, I called Elizabeth Dunn, a psychology professor at the University of British Columbia and a coauthor of 'Happy Money: The Science of Happier Spending.'

One area she says is definitely worth the money: exercise. Physical activity is really good for our emotional well-being; it can be just as effective as medication in treating depression, studies have found, even if it's just 30 minutes of walking three times a week....

A raft of studies have linked spending time in nature to better mental health. And, of course, Covid transmission rates are far lower outdoors, making it possible to socialize relatively safely as long as you stay outside....

Another way to invest in happiness is to buy experiences. We're happier buying experiences than material goods, several studies have suggested....

Another way to buy an experience is to buy more free time. People feel much happier when they outsource tasks they find unpleasant, Dunn's research shows....

The last and best way to buy happiness: Help others. A tranche of Dunn's research focuses on what academics call 'prosocial spending' and its powerful effects. Charitable donations bring us joy; we feel even better when we can see the tangible effects of our giving. So make a donation to your local food pantry, or send a DoorDash order to a friend going through a hard time."

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Dec 2, 2020

12.2.20 - Gold Price Jumps 2% on Dollar Slide

Gold last traded at $1,826 an ounce. Silver at $23.96 an ounce.

NEWS SUMMARY: Precious metal prices extended gains Wednesday on bargain-hunting and a flat dollar. U.S. stock retreated from historic highs on a stimulus stalemate and declining jobs data.

Gold jumps 2% on dollar slide, stimulus bets -CNBC

"Gold prices jumped over 2% on Tuesday, rebounding from a five-month low in the previous session, and silver soared nearly 5% as the dollar fell and as U.S. stimulus bets due to mounting COVID-19 cases eclipsed the optimism around a vaccine-led economic recovery....

'We saw gold recapture the $1,800 level and a lot of that has to do with the weakening dollar trade,' said Edward Moya, senior market analyst at OANDA. 'The unwind of the gold trade has run its course' and we are likely to see more efforts from the U.S. Congress to support the economy. Making gold more attractive to investors holding other currencies, the dollar fell on expectations of more U.S. stimulus, with focus shifting to Federal Reserve Chair Powell's testimony before the Senate Banking Committee...Powell highlighted challenges of production and mass distribution before the economic impact of a vaccine becomes clear....

'The bottom was in for gold now and we see prices north of $2,000 next year,' said Daniel Ghali, commodity strategist at TD Securities. 'Gold's actually now in a new regime' with vaccines a likely catalyst for higher inflation expectations as the economy recovers, supporting gold longer term, especially amid lower real rates, Ghali added. Silver gained 4.3% to $23.58 per ounce, having earlier risen as much as 4.9%."

economy Economic outlook 'extraordinarily uncertain' -Powell/CNBC

"Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell emphasized the importance of the lending programs it has deployed during the coronavirus pandemic, telling senators in testimony to be delivered Tuesday that they've been integral in keeping the economic fallout from being worse....

Many of the key programs that the central bank has used since March are expiring at the end of the year, and the Fed will be forced to return the funding that supports them....Addressing the economy, Powell provided a lukewarm outlook that he again said will be dependent on the progress of the virus, which has been spreading rapidly lately.

'As we have emphasized throughout the pandemic, the outlook for the economy is extraordinarily uncertain and will depend, in large part, on the success of efforts to keep the virus in check,' he said. 'The rise in new COVID-19 cases, both here and abroad, is concerning and could prove challenging for the next few months. A full economic recovery is unlikely until people are confident that it is safe to reengage in a broad range of activities.'....

Powell repeated that the Fed stands at the ready to use its policy tools. In addition to the lending and liquidity programs, the Fed has cut its benchmark borrowing rate to near zero and is buying at least $120 billion of bonds a month."

Dow 30,000: 'The Fed Did It' Narrative Becomes Even More Ridiculous -Tamny/Real Clear Markets

"There are so many reasons the Federal Reserve will never be abolished, but none of them have anything to do with its existence being necessary...The Fed began as a lender of last resort in 1913 to solvent banks, but it's never fulfilled that role. With good reason. If you're a financial institution with quality assets, you don't need the Fed to help you through near-term cash crunches. Private lenders line up to liquefy that which is well run.

The Fed regulates banks. Ok, and what's the point there? The same central bank has bailed out Citi how many times? At least five by the count of those in the know. It's just a reminder of the obvious: the Fed's regulators can't see around the corner in order to detect trouble spots ahead of time for the banks they oversee. If they could, they wouldn't be Fed regulators. They would be stunningly rich investors....

The Fed aims to influence the short rate for credit? Oh please. The Fed exists to buy government debt. Sure, but that's government buying from government, which means it's a wash. As always, imagine if the Fed didn't exist. All of the above functions would likely still be federal functions to the detriment of the U.S. banking system and the U.S. economy more broadly....

Wealth extracted from the private sector and that is utilized by the Fed can influence markets to a degree...Hence, to pretend our central bank can stimulate economic growth or engineer happy times of the economic kind is as lamebrained a belief as the one that says Congress can stimulate economic growth by extracting wealth created in the private sector, only to redistribute it to favored constituents....

In reality, a stock's value is a market speculation on all the dollar's a specific company will earn over its existence. The view in November 2020 is that Apple's future is bright, but Chevron''s isn't....In short, markets work. They reflect reality. Not only is 'the Fed did it' an insult to American ingenuity on par with Barack Obama's 'you didn't build that,' such a stance ignores the basic truth that if U.S. stock markets were rigged by the Fed, they would be too depressed to be worth rigging."

The death of the department store and the American middle class -Del Rey/VOX

"The collapse of America's middle class crushed department stores. Amazon and the pandemic are the final blows....Across the US, department stores are shrinking or shuttering altogether. In 2011, US department stores employed 1.2 million employees across 8,600 stores, according to estimates from the research firm IBISWorld. But in 2020, there are now fewer than 700,000 employees in the sector, working across just over 6,000 locations.

The reasons for the struggles are both shared and unique. Since the Great Recession began in late 2007, the vast majority of income growth in the US has gone to high-income households, squeezing middle-class households and altering where they spend money. As a result, chains that sell brands at sharp discounts like TJ Maxx, Ross, and Dollar General have become more popular, siphoning away shoppers from full-price department stores like Macy's and JC Penney that were designed to cater to a stronger middle class of yesteryear.

Department stores are also facing the reality that they are no longer the main way most shoppers discover or access new brands - which was once perhaps their main appeal as onetime innovators....

'The department store genre has been taking the great American shopping mall down with it, slowly but inevitably,' said Mark Cohen, the director of retail studies at Columbia University who was previously the CEO of multiple department store chains in the US and Canada.

What happens when an entire sector of retail, one that employs more than half a million people, is in free fall - and is slowing or dragging down shopping malls like with it?...We're about to find out....The communities across the country that depended on these stores and malls as job creators will have to get creative to rebuild around their ruins."

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Dec 1, 2020


12.1.20 - Inequality And The Gold Standard

Gold last traded at $1,814 an ounce. Silver at $23.96 an ounce.

NEWS SUMMARY: Precious metal prices rebounded sharply Tuesday amid bargain-hunting and a weaker dollar. U.S. stocks rose as investors cheered upbeat fiscal relief news despite the Fed's "extraordinarily uncertain" economic outlook.

Are Precious Metals Starting a 10-Year Bull Market? -Thompson/FX Empire

"After a prolonged bear market, commodities reached a major inflection point in 2020. In response to the global pandemic, governments began unprecedented money creation. Ultimately, I believe this will lead to a decade of sharply higher inflation and a 10-year bull market in precious metals...We saw similar periods of commodity outperformance during the 1970s and 2000s....

I believe precious metals and commodities are starting another bull market that could last well into 2030. From a technical set up, I believe we are in a similar position to 2004. Though gold could drop a little further near-term, I think prices are going much higher over the next 10-years....Longer-term, buying gold at or below the rising 200-day MA is historically a favorable opportunity....Silver is shaping up to be an excellent long-term buying opportunity, in my opinion."

income growth Inequality And The Gold Standard -Howden/Mises Institute

"The income inequality debate is not as straight forward as it is commonly framed. It is not just a question of one group getting a larger piece of the pie, but of increasing the size of the pie so that everyone can benefit....

Relying on data from Berkeley economist Emmanuel Saez, Cassidy shares the following graph showing changes in real income growth over the past century (1913-2013). First let's look at the top 1 percent. There seem to be about three distinct periods their incomes have gone through. The first from 1913 to roughly 1973 is more or less flat. Real incomes for the top 1 percent were no higher in 1973 than they were around 1930. After 1973 however there is a sharp and mostly uninterrupted spike upwards which seems to stop around the year 2000. After 2000 their real incomes have ebbed and flowed, primarily in response to capital gains and losses on their stock portfolios.

Compare this with the bottom 99 percent. There seem to be about four distinct periods of real income growth. From 1913 until the end of the Great Depression, real income remained more or less constant. The 1940s, 50s and 60s saw a rapid increase in real income growth, far more rapid than what the 1 percent experienced. This came to a sudden end around 1973 and a stagnation until the early 1990s. Then from 1993 onwards we see the same final stage as the 1 percent. Increasing real incomes....

The one year that probably pops out for people who think income inequality is a bad thing is 1973. So what happened in 1973?...What was the biggest event to occur in 1973?...The most important thing to happen in 1973 actually happened in 1971, August 15th to be exact. On that date Richard Nixon closed the gold window. The US dollar was convertible by foreign governments into gold under the then-existing Bretton Woods system at the great price of $35 per ounce...No longer was the US dollar tied to gold and the US no longer had to worry about spending beyond its means...The US dollar still functioned on a fixed exchange rate standard relative to gold until 1973....1973 was also the year that set off the most inflationary episode in America's history....

All this takes us back to the original question: why did income inequality increase so much after 1973? We can look to two factors both related to the loss of the gold exchange standard in 1971 and the arrival of flexible exchange rates two years later....The reason why there is growing income inequality since 1973 is a direct result of this monetary mayhem. All this new money needs an entry point into the economy....The 99 percent that have become relatively poorer over the past 40 years are those who get access to this new money last."

Biden Era Brews As the Times Plumps Socialism -Stoll/New York Sun

"Anyone under the illusion that Joe Biden's victory over Bernie Sanders in the Democratic presidential primary had vanquished the threat of socialism from American shores can get a reality check by picking up the Sunday New York Times, which features four articles pressing the anti-capitalist agenda....

'Boeing's 737 Max Is a Saga of Capitalism Gone Awry,' is the headline over one such article, by a business reporter for the Times...Absent from the article is any mention of how alternatives to capitalism do at building safe aircraft. Not so well, it turns out....How did the Russian airline turn things around? 'Soviet aircraft have been replaced by Western-built jets.'...

Elsewhere in the Sunday Times, under the headline "'What Facebook Fed the Baby Boomers,' is a long article about what the Times calls 'disinformation,' 'hyperpartisan fearmongering' and 'conspiratorial misinformation.'...

The Times article headlined 'The Rich Kids Who Want to Tear Down Capitalism' reports on an heir who 'wants to put his inheritance toward ending capitalism.' This is some sort of trend. The inheritance angle may help explain it. People who are already rich and who are aspiring to become less so are understandably more prone to be hostile to capitalism than the larger number of people who are hoping one day eventually to become rich thanks to the opportunities that the free enterprise system provides."

Retiring Retirement: The Rise Of Life's Third Age -Dychtwald/Morison/Forbes

"Worldwide, nearly a billion people are in or near retirement, and they enjoy many more options and opportunities for how to spend their newfound time affluence....We now believe the word 'retirement' is reaching the end of its line. It's far too small and narrow for what is now emerging....

A compelling philosophy has emerged from the European tradition of adult education that provides a simple yet visionary orientation. Referred to as the 'third age,' this point of view has three 'ages' of man, each with its own special focus, challenge, and opportunity.

In the first age, from birth to approximately 30 years of age, the primary tasks of life center around biological development, learning, and survival....In the second age, from about 30 to 60, the concerns of adult life focus on issues pertaining to the formation of family, parenting, and productive work...Until the last century, most people couldn't expect to live much beyond the second age, and society at that time was thus centered on the concerns of this age.

However, with the rise in longevity and the coming of the age wave, a new era of human evolution is unfolding, the third age. There are new purposes to this third age of life....Will the Boomers use their experience and assets to help shape a future based on mindfulness and generosity of spirit? Or will they act only to promote their own interests?...

A few years ago, when we interviewed renowned psychologist and author of Emotional Intelligence Daniel Goleman, PhD, he reflected, 'The legacy to the boomer generation won't be the 'me first' image of their early years, but rather the potential huge surge in volunteerism that might characterize their later years. It's not how you begin the act, it's how you leave the stage that people remember.' "

[Ed. Note: PBS debuted an excellent 1-hour TV special last weekend entitled: Life's Third Age hosted by Ken Dychtwald, co-author of new book What Retirees Want: A Holistic View of Life's Third Age.]

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Nov 30, 2020


11.30.20 - 5 Trends Accelerated by Covid-19

Gold last traded at $1,778 an ounce. Silver at $22.53 an ounce.

NEWS SUMMARY: Precious metal prices traded lower Monday amid upbeat vaccine news despite a weaker dollar. U.S. stocks traded mostly lower on month-end profit-taking after strong gains.

Why Gold Prices Could Be Set For Another Rally -Sieron/Oil Prices

"This last week hasn't been great for gold. The price of the yellow metal plunged then from $1,840 to $1,780....President-elect Joe Biden announced the beginning of a formal transition of power from Trump's administration to his. Biden also started to announce nominations for top positions, which served to reduce the risk that a contested election had for uncertainty among investors.

In particular, there are rumors that Biden is likely to tap former Fed Chief Janet Yellen to become the next Treasury secretary...Yellen, who is seen as a dovish person, is believed to be supportive of bigger government economic aid in order to stimulate the economy and recover quickly from the coronavirus crisis. Actually, she has for some time been calling for increased government spending to help combat the recession and has always been concerned about the labor markets, low participation rates and high unemployment.

What does it all mean for the gold market?....The long-term fundamentals haven't significantly changed. The real interest rates actually remain deep below zero while the U.S. dollar remains weak. These factors should support gold prices and the expanding public debt should also help the yellow metal. Investors also shouldn't forget about the possibility of a debt crisis or the risk of accelerating inflation when the pandemic ends and people increase their spending.

In other words, the ongoing fiscal and monetary stimulus should support or even push gold prices higher in the medium to long-run."

financial impact 5 Big Picture Trends Being Accelerated by the Pandemic -Routley/Visual Capitalist

"As every email introduction has reminded us in 2020, we're living in 'unprecedented times'....Today, we'll highlight five of these accelerating trends.

#1: Screen Life Takes Hold - In the decade from 2008 to 2018, screen time on mobile devices increased 12x...44% of people under the age of 18 now report four hours or more of screen time per day - up from 21% prior to the pandemic....

#2: The Big Consumer Shake-Up - The consumer economy has been innovating on two fronts: making physical buying as 'frictionless' as possible, and making e-commerce as nimble as possible. COVID-19 broke old habits and sped up that evolution....

#3: Peak Globalization - Globalization went on a tear starting from the mid-1980s until it hit a plateau during the financial crisis. Since that point, global trade as a percentage of GDP has flat-lined in the face of trade wars, and now COVID-19...The dip in merchandise trade this year looks eerily similar to the one that took place in 2008....

#4: The Wealth Chasm - Inequality has grown over the last few decades. Those in the top 50% wealth bracket have seen increasing gains, while the bottom 50% have seen stagnation. This issue is sure to be compounded by economic turmoil brought on by COVID-19. Younger generations face the dual challenges of being more likely to be negatively impacted by the pandemic, while also being the least likely to have savings to cover an interruption in income....

#5: The Flexible Workplace - As of 2019, over half of companies that didn't have a flexible or remote workplace policy cited 'longstanding company policy' as the reason...The pandemic has forced many companies to rethink these policies...Global commercial property investment volume falling by 48% in Q3 2020...Thousands of people are moving out of pricey urban areas, presumably because they are able to work remotely from a cheaper location."

Covid vaccine: CDC should warn people the side effects from shots won't be 'walk in the park' -CNBC

"Public health officials and drugmakers need to warn people that coronavirus vaccine shots may have some rough side effects so they know what to expect and aren't scared away from getting the second dose, doctors urged during a meeting Monday with CDC advisors. The recommendations come as states prepare to distribute the potentially life-saving vaccinations as early as next month.

Dr. Sandra Fryhofer of the American Medical Association said both Pfizer's and Moderna's Covid-19 vaccines require two doses at varying intervals. As a practicing physician, she said she worries whether her patients will come back for a second dose because of the potentially unpleasant side effects they may experience after the first shot. 'We really need to make patients aware that this is not going to be a walk in the park,' Fryhofer said during a virtual meeting with the Advisory Committee on Immunization Practices, or ACIP, an outside group of medical experts that advise the CDC. She is also a liaison to the committee. 'They are going to know they had a vaccine. They are probably not going to feel wonderful. But they've got to come back for that second dose.'

Participants in Moderna and Pfizer's coronavirus vaccine trials told CNBC in September that they were experiencing high fever, body aches, bad headaches, daylong exhaustion and other symptoms after receiving the shots....'The first dose is no big deal. And then the second dose will definitely put you down for the day for sure. ... You will need to take a day off after the second dose.'"

Blessings in a Hard Year -Noonan/Wall Street Journal

"It's been a fairly gruesome year - pandemic, lockdowns, economic woe, death and illness....There was a lot of surprised gratitude for technology. A subtext emerged, unexpected gifts of the pandemic. Most of all and strikingly there was deep gratitude for the people who work on the ground in America, who kept the country functioning. Almost everyone mentioned personal thanks for grocery-store workers and truckers...

Tim Cook, CEO of Apple, found himself awed this year by 'the resilience of the human spirit'...Technology helped save the day: 'When it was crucial to remain apart, technology brought us closer together in ways unimaginable just a few years ago - helping families stay connected . . . helping us all stay productive, entertained, and healthy.'....

Our institutions may have failed us and our civic trust been savagely corroded, but everywhere you turned there were countless individuals bravely doing what they could for their neighbors. Those fine old words from William Hazlitt finally became a visceral reality for me: 'I do not love war, but I love the courage with which men face war.'

America, I hate this pandemic but I adore your bravery, and am grateful to you for showing it to me....Father Roger Landry, a Massachusetts priest working at the United Nations, spoke of the courage of police officers, doormen, waiters and chaplains. 'Courage is not the absence of fear but doing what one should despite one's fears. I'm grateful for those who boldly carried on while others cowered.' For some, the pandemic was a spiritual catalyst: 'In the midst of widespread spiritual lockdown the hunger of so many for God was stoked.' People 'started asking deeper questions about life, death and suffering, how to be selfless, to grieve with hope.' He has this year accompanied 'several newly restless hearts to find the God for whom their hearts were made.'....

For me this holiday weekend is quieter than usual, a traditional, raucous house party pushed back. It's reminded all of us how we cherished our old lives of bubbling affection, and how grateful we'll be when they return. For now life wants to increase itself."

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Nov 25, 2020


11.25.20 - Covid-19 Vaccine May Unleash Inflation

Gold last traded at $1,808 an ounce. Silver at $23.32 an ounce.

NEWS SUMMARY: Precious metal prices rebounded Wednesday on bargain-hunting and a weaker dollar. U.S. stocks traded mostly lower as investors digested the economic impact of rising jobless claims and record high Covid-19 hospitalizations.

Gold Bullish -Miller/FX Street
"Gold has been trading sideways for a couple of months....There has been talk about bitcoin replacing gold for years now and that idea has gained new life recently with bitcoin's strong performance versus gold....While bitcoin may affect gold in the short-term, when retail traders and speculators sell gold for bitcoin to catch momentum moves, I don't think it will have much of an effect on gold's price over the medium-to-long term. There are still plenty of gold bugs out there to say the least. Also, I still believe gold will act a hedge against monetary policy failure going forward. So, any pullbacks in gold are only going to create a great buying opportunity.... I think once gold bottoms, the next stop will be new all-time highs, between the $2,300-2,500 area."

free market Three Conditions for a Free Market Economy -Dyson/Rogue Economics
"Porter Stansberry's 'Three Conditions' for regulating the relationship between government and a free-market economy are: 1) Sound money. 2) A flat tax on all income, excluding capital gains. 3) A mandatory balanced budget. Porter is the founder of the financial publishing company Stansberry Research, and a longtime friend of mine. 'The idea,' says Porter, 'is to use real money, or else you will never know what is actually happening in the economy or with the government's spending. Money is a form of communication across the economy. When that channel is distorted, the economic costs are enormous. Second, we know that people will always vote for more government if they don't have to pay for it. So get rid of progressive taxation. The most important principle in the American experiment is democracy while protecting the rights of the minority. You do that by making everyone equal in the eyes of the law. What's more important than taxing everyone in the same way, and at the same rate? Yes, rich people will pay far more, but only in the same proportion. Second, we know that people will always vote for more government if they don't have to pay for it. So get rid of progressive taxation.We would never leave debts for our children to settle, so why do we allow our government to do so? Besides, debt allows politicians to create the illusion that you can get something for nothing, via socialism. We know it's not true, but millions still believe Social Security works"¦So you can see what really happens is one generation (or two) wins while multiple future generations will suffer. That's completely immoral.'....The U.S. government is broke, it just hasn't admitted it yet. The only way it stays in business is if the Federal Reserve prints trillions more dollars. Out-of-control currency printing and spending will devalue the dollar"¦ and the entire system of paper currencies that revolve around the dollar. Bonds and other savings instruments will have sharply negative interest rates, especially after accounting for inflation, possibly for decades to come. Gold will hyperinflate as investors and traders flee from bonds and currencies, and into hard assets."

Janet Yellen to Treasury? So Much for Fed Independence -New York Sun
"News that Vice President Biden intends to nominate the former chairman of the Federal Reserve, Janet Yellen, to be treasury secretary certainly has its ironies. We're still in the midst of watching the Democrats maneuver to defeat the nomination to the Fed board of Judy Shelton on the grounds that she would compromise the independence of the Fed from the Treasury. Mr. Biden's move is practically a merger. How is that going to be handled by the Republicans who used Fed independence to libel Ms. Shelton? Are Senators Susan Collins, Lamar Alexander, and Mitt Romney going to go after Mrs. Yellen the way they did Ms. Shelton? What of Senator Sherrod Brown and the rest of the Banking Committee Democrats who are rallying against Mrs. Shelton in the most demagogic fashion? Not to mention the New York Times and the Washington Post. Ms. Shelton herself, we've pointed out, is no particular enemy of Fed independence....Most of our coverage of Mrs. Yellen has been in the context of her accession to chair the Fed. It was a time when the central bank was being eyed as a culprit in the Great Recession. At one point, Mrs. Yellen actually apologized. 'I'm sorry that light bulbs didn't go off in my head a couple of years before they really did, but there was no question,' she told the New Yorker's Nick Lemann. 'I was hearing stuff that was scary. And I wouldn't have seen it in the data.' If we're inclined to mark the point yet again, it's because it was plain as day in the data, at least to our sources. In late 2005, James Grant, writing on our op-ed page, warned that since George W. Bush had acceded to the presidency, the value of the dollar had plunged by 46% to barely a 500th of an ounce of gold. We editorialized until we were blue in the face. In early 2008, the Sun warned that New York apartment prices, measured in gold, had begun collapsing. The collapse of real estate and the 2008 financial crisis began soon thereafter. Mrs. Yellen, we don't mind saying, wasn't the only one who didn't see it in the data. Ben Bernanke was also quoted by Mr. Lemann in the New Yorker, in his case as saying 'The crisis came from causes not captured by the new Keynesian models used at the Fed.' We'd like to think that someone in the Senate might open up these questions when Mrs. Yellen comes up for confirmation as Treasury Secretary. It's not just the question of the independence of the Fed. It's also the question of monetary reform itself...The logic of having Judy Shelton on the board grows clearer by the day."

A Covid-19 Vaccine Could Unleash Pent-Up Demand, Bringing Along Inflation -Wall Street Journal
"Inflation could be poised for a comeback. Some economists are starting to embrace the idea that a prospective Covid-19 vaccine could allow people to once again spend money on travel, restaurants and other services - and drive up prices in the U.S. That would be a change from the past 10 years, when inflation rarely hit the Federal Reserve's 2% target despite a strong economy and low unemployment. The economy's progress since the sharp, pandemic-induced recession in the spring has made forecasters more confident of a strong recovery once a vaccine enables people to resume their pre-pandemic lives. Airlines and hotels, which laid off thousands of workers and slashed prices at the start of the pandemic, could struggle to meet the surge in demand, sending prices higher. And city rents, which dropped as people hunkered down, could start creeping up again as they look at alternatives....In the near term, some economists expect a short-lived boost of inflation for a month or two next spring. That is because prices fell sharply in March and April of this year as the first wave of the virus hit....How the Fed responds to a resurgence of inflation under their new framework will be closely watched. 'For the Fed to build credibility it's going to take some time,' said Ms. Zentner. 'It's going to take proof where inflation is running above their 2% goal and indeed they don't raise rates.' Paul Ashworth, chief U.S. economist at Capital Economics, who also forecasts stronger upward pressure on prices, said the Fed's new hands-off policy could itself drive inflation."

**Swiss America will be closed Thursday and Friday in observance of the Thanksgiving holiday. We wish our readers a blessed holiday!**

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Nov 24, 2020


11.24.20 - Morgan Stanley: "Expect a Correction"

Gold last traded at $1,807 an ounce. Silver at $23.29 an ounce.

NEWS SUMMARY: Precious metal prices dipped to 4-month lows as optimism over COVID-19 vaccines drove investors to riskier assets. U.S. stocks rallied after the Trump administration moved to begin the transition process.

Why Gold Could Be Heading To $5,000 -OilPrice
"Gold prices were already on a tear amid wild pandemic, economic and electoral uncertainty, with big banks predicting $3,000 gold "¦Or even $5,000 gold...Right before Biden's electoral victory, JPMorgan had called another 5% price hike in a 'blue wave'....What gold loves more than anything is the Biden-backed promise of monetary stimulus. Historically, gold has risen consistently on similar economic packages...And today is no different....In times like these, gold isn't just a safe haven, it may be a massive opportunity."

correction Why Morgan Stanley Expects A Correction: "Market Pressure Is Necessary To Get Congress Or Fed To Act" -Zero Hedge
"'Wall Street's most accurate analyst' - the bank's chief US equity strategist Michael Wilson - is bullish over the next 12 months...yet bearish into year end, expecting another corrective 'drawdown' in the S&P500...More than a few people were surprised and worried about the inability of the market to break through 3600 on a deluge of good news from vaccine efficacy and lower election related overhangs....The following concerns emerged: 1) Case counts are rising and so is lockdown risk which could damage consumer confidence and balance sheets. 2) The vaccine doesn't do anything for the economy until April. 3) We don't have clarity on fiscal support for the consumer between now and the time the vaccine is available. 4) The transition of power is not going smoothly...What gives Wilson the most pause is the technical picture due to 'repeated failure to break through long term resistance lines'....Wilson's bottom line is that 'both fiscal and now monetary policy have become reactive rather than proactive. For markets, that becomes the itch that needs to be scratched - i.e. market pressure is necessary and likely to get Congress and/or the Fed to act.' Stated even more simply, stocks can drift higher, but to shoot up and break the resistance level, the market will first need to slide to provoke the 'appropriate' response either from the Treasury or the Fed."

Dems Pick the Worst Time to Propose Doubling the Minimum Wage -Wilford/Real Clear Markets
"Raising the federal minimum wage from its current $7.25 an hour rate has been a progressive dream for some time. So much so, it seems, that Democrats are willing to push for it despite the worst economic climate for such a change in years. Democrats in Congress are expected to push for a $15 an hour minimum wage as part of the next major COVID-19 relief bill. Though this would likely be paired with some business tax incentives to blunt the impact on small businesses, it remains a dangerous idea that could hamper the economic recovery from the pandemic. The minimum wage has always enjoyed a disproportionate amount of focus in progressive parlance, in large part due to a pervasive belief in left-wing circles that businesses will pay workers the absolute legal minimum that they can get away with. This just isn't the case - in January, prior to the onset of the pandemic, just 1.1 percent of full-time American workers were paid at or below the federal minimum wage. Nevertheless, hiking the federal minimum wage to more than double the current minimum could have severe consequences for businesses still dealing with the economic consequences of the pandemic and its associated lockdowns....For one, $15 an hour means different things in different areas - while the median worker makes over $35 an hour in the District of Columbia, the median Idahoan makes less than half that rate per hour. While a New York City business may expect to pay entry-level hourly wage workers around $15 an hour already, in line with the city's inflated cost of living, a $15 an hour minimum wage in rural areas could put some smaller operations out of business. Paired with the fact that the latest coronavirus wave appears to behitting rural communities disproportionately hard, this could prove a one-two punch for small businesses ill prepared to take even a single hit....Only when businesses are back on their feet should Congress even consider policies that could saddle them with new burdens. Until that time, it just risks putting more Americans on the unemployment rolls."

The Price of Bad Polling -Editors/Wall Street Journal
"The 2020 polling autopsies are still being written, and there are many unanswered questions: How did Republicans win 27 of 27 House districts identified as tossups by the Cook Political Report? How did Sen. Susan Collins win Maine by nine points when she didn't lead in a single major poll for months? How are President Trump and Joe Biden separated by a little under four points in the national popular vote when Nate Silver's FiveThirtyEight average showed an 8.4-point Biden lead on Election Day?....The polling industry and statistical models make claims to objective expertise, yet they again clearly missed Republican strength. Combined with media conformity, this can lead pundits and the public astray. The prognosticators make projections - shaped by assumptions about demographics, turnout and response rates - which influence the press. These views are reinforced on social media, especially Twitter....The predictions that Democrats would gain 10-15 seats or more in the House were so wrong that they may have hurt the GOP chances to take House control in what was a very close result....'In my judgment, there was a blue wave building, a pretty big one, then something happened, like a fish getting spooked before taking a bite out of a lure,' Charlie Cook of The Cook Political Report explained. 'Too many of the most experienced political operatives in both parties could see it coming. My guess is that while a majority, albeit a small one, wanted to unseat Trump, they got skittish about giving Democrats unified control.'....Pollsters are working on better models, but it would be healthier if politics and media narratives were shaped less by instant snapshots of quantified opinion...Journalists and opinion leaders could develop insights on popular sentiment the old-fashioned way - by actual reporting. Those insights might also be shaped by bias, but at least they wouldn't be presented with an imprimatur of scientific authority."

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Nov 23, 2020


11.23.20 - The High Cost of Lockdowns

Gold last traded at $1,840 an ounce. Silver at $23.62 an ounce.

NEWS SUMMARY: Precious metal prices fell Monday on profit-taking and upbeat economic data. U.S. stocks rose as investor cheered promising results from a third potential Covid-19 vaccine by AstraZeneca.

Bitcoin no match for gold in coronavirus world -Fox Business
"The recent surge in bitcoin's price has created some new believers, but the cryptocurrency will never supplant gold as a store of value or medium of exchange, some Wall Street investors say. The cryptocurrency's price has soared more than 70% over the past six weeks to more than $18,000 a coin and is 11% below its all-time peak of $20,089. At the same time, gold's price has traded in a tight range between $1,850 and $1,950 an ounce. 'To try to act like bitcoin is some kind of improved version of gold, it's going to disrupt gold because it's a better store of value, it's a better medium of exchange, all that is pure nonsense,' said Peter Schiff, CEO of Westport, Conn.-based Euro Pacific Capital. 'It's not a store of value because it has no value to store.' Gold, widely viewed as a safe haven for investors seeking to preserve wealth during periods of market upheaval such as the coronavirus pandemic, has value not only in trade but its use in fine jewelry and electrical conductivity. Bitcoin, generated - or mined - by the verification of transactions in a blockchain digital ledger, has no use other than as a limited medium of exchange and has historically been subject to wide price swings....'Crypto is the mother or father of all scams and bubbles,' Nouriel Roubini, CEO of Roubini Macro Associates and a professor at New York University's Stern School of Business, said in testimony before the U.S. Senate Committee on Banking, Housing and Community Affairs....'There's no real use for bitcoin,' Schiff said. 'All you can do with Bitcoin once you buy it is sell it, but you need somebody else to buy it from you. It's a massive pump-and-dump.'"

advice If We Want People To Accept A COVID-19 Vaccine, We Should Stop Lying To Them About The Disease -Fumento/Issues & Insights
"COVID-19 vaccines when ready should be available for those who want them. Yet it's possible, nay probable, that the fabricated hysteria over COVID-19 virus will make people reject injections. Why? Because authorities have lost their trust regarding everything to do with the virus. If they can't trust them over cases and deaths, why trust them over safety and efficacy of vaccines. Indeed, polls show a steady decline in those who said they would immediately receive a coronavirus vaccine, only 58% of Americans in the latest survey. There are actually several good reasons for trepidation...In the past, haste has made not just waste, but death. In 1976, after being warned that the death of a single soldier from influenza might portend a new 'Spanish flu' - then-President Gerald Ford ordered a turbocharged program overseen by the CDC...After 45 million injections the government slammed the brakes when it was realized too many recipients developed a rare and often permanent form of paralysis called Guillain-Barré syndrome. Some died....Just three years ago the Philippines shut down a dengue fever vaccination program after it was associated with 'hundreds' of excess deaths. There were accusations of approval with 'undue haste' and indeed some dengue experts had warned that the vaccine should only be given to those who had had previously been infected. They were ignored. Both of these disastrous vaccines still did pass their allocated human clinical trials just as the announced Pfizer/BioNTech and Moderna, vaccines appear to be doing. The side effects apparently weren't clear until the general vaccination programs began. Modern technology can't change that. The Pfizer vaccine so far has been tested on less than 45,000 people, Moderna's on about 30,000. That can hardly be representative of the 330 million unique individuals that comprise the United States...Despite the steady stream of slogans like 'We're all in this together' we are all by now long aware that young people with no pre-existing conditions are at almost no risk of severe illness. This notwithstanding the media's desperate effort to comb through every obituary and local news story on the planet for possible exceptions....If governments and health authorities want to gain public trust in a vaccine, they need to win back public trust regarding coronavirus generally. By telling the truth...There's no quicker way to scare people off than by trying to make the vaccine mandatory. Denmark announced it would do so and then backed down after nine days of protests."

Cost of Lockdowns: A Preliminary Report -Staff/AEIR
"In the debate over coronavirus policy, there has been far too little focus on the costs of lockdowns. It's very common for the proponents of these interventions to write articles and large studies without even mentioning the downsides. Here is a brief look at the cost of stringencies in the United States, and around the world, including stay-at-home orders, closings of business and schools, restrictions on gatherings, shutting of arts and sports, restrictions on medical services, and interventions in the freedom of movement. 1) Mental Health: During late June 2020, 40% of US adults reported to be struggling with mental health or substance abuse. Of adults surveyed, 10.7% had thoughts of suicide compared to 4.3% in 2018...More than 40 states have reported increases in opioid-related mortality....2) The Economy: This year, between 71 and 100 million people will fall into extreme poverty...Q2 2020 GDP decreased at an annual rate of 32.9%, and Q1 2020 GDP decreased at an annual rate of 5%....3) Unemployment: Unemployment rate increased to 14.7% in April 2020. This is the highest rate of increase (10.3%) and largest month over month increase in history of available data (since 1948)...The unemployment rate between February and April increased by 12% for women and 10% for men...One out of four women who were surveyed reported their job loss was due to lack of childcare, twice the rate of men surveyed....4) Education: About 24 million children may drop out of school next year as a result of the lockdown's economic impact...A decrease in life expectancy by 5.53 million years of life is found to occur for US children due to the closing of US primary schools....5) Healthcare: Diagnosis for 6 cancers (breast, colorectal, lung, pancreatic, gastric, and esophageal) has declined 46.4% compared to 2018...Breast cancer diagnosis has dropped 51.8% compared to 2018...Admissions for chemotherapy decreased 45-66% while urgent referrals for early cancer diagnosis decreased 70-89%....6) Crime: During the first six months of 2020 murder and nonnegligent manslaughter offenses increased 14.8%, and aggravated assault offenses were up 4.6%...Between June and August 2020 homicides increased 53% and aggravated assaults increased 14% compared to the same period in 2019....7) Food and Hospitality: The restaurant industry is set to lose $240 billion in revenue and 8 million employees in 2020...1 in 3 restaurants are expected to close."

The Economic Emergency In 2020 and Beyond Won't Be Covid -Snyder/Real Clear Markets
"The economic emergency facing the global economy in 2021 is not COVID. Overreactive governments arbitrarily imposing their authority, sure, that's a big problem. The economic damage, however, has already been done; twice. In each case, as consistent with depression economics, the labor market has suffered. As it has suffered, unrest and disarray become more the operative state in political and social factors. Some things never change. While the unemployment rate had dropped to a 50-year low during 2019, the labor force participation rate had 'achieved' something similar; which meant the two major employment measures directly opposed one another. The inflation which should have accompanied the unemployment rate view never materialized, therefore joining the disinflationary (or deflation) evidence already including everything from bond yields to productivity. Now another great deflationary shock unleashed in March 2020. On top of the other one not yet solved, a second from which the same symptoms have already arrived. The unemployment rate falls while the participation rate barely improves for an even lower number. More immediate, initial jobless claims halfway into November, eight months after the initial shock and dislocation, continue to be above weekly rates that previous to this year would've been record highs. Following the absolute peak (record) reached in October 1981, it had taken only about the same eight months for the level of initial jobless claims to recover back all the way to the prior 'normal' levels. Following the 2008-09 Great 'Recession', it would take five years - a relatively sobering demonstration for how the labor market had never really recovered from it at all. Which course does it sound like we're currently following? More to the current point, and our future worries, what had distinguished 2008-09's 'great recession' from the rather nasty one in 1981-82? The answer...stop looking to central banks for answers."

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Nov 20, 2020


11.20.20 - Fed May Extend Emergency Programs

Gold last traded at $1,872 an ounce. Silver at $24.35 an ounce.

NEWS SUMMARY: Precious metal prices rose Friday on bargain-hunting and a flat dollar. U.S. stocks fell on rising new coronavirus cases and doubts over central-bank funding for key emergency programs.

Gold Is a Hedge Against Bad Government Decisions -Dillian/Bloomberg
"Investors don't really have a handle on what gold is or what it represents....Gold is a hedge on government authorities making poor economic choices. Inflation is usually the result of those poor decisions, but people confuse cause and effect here. Gold is a hedge on policy makers screwing up, and there has been a lot of screwing up in the last 20 years. Gold has significantly outperformed stocks this century, gaining about 555% versus 79% for the MSCI All-Country World Index of stocks and 146% for the S&P 500 Index. This is a direct result of significantly looser financial conditions, and no constraints on monetary and fiscal policy. From a financial perspective, the global economy is in a much worse place than 20 years ago, and there is no evidence that things are going to improve."

hyperinflation The Velocity of Money Is Increasing -Bonner/Rogue Economics
"Inflation in Argentina is running at about 50% per year. if history is any guide, pesos will continue to lose value against the U.S. dollar. And then, the dollar will lose value against everything else. The post-1971 dollar has already lost 96% of its value, in terms of gold. In the years ahead, it will almost surely lose the rest of it. This week the Dow leapt to absurdity, coming to rest only 50 points shy of 30,000 - a new record. What is driving stocks higher? Two things"¦ First, there was more 'good news' about a coronavirus vaccine. According to the popular narrative, the economy will soon get a shot in the arm and life will return to normal. But it is not normal for stocks to be so expensive. And it is not normal for an economy to depend on printing-press money. Businesses have had the life crushed out of them. Jobs have been permanently lost. Habits have changed. States are telling families not to get together for Thanksgiving. Santa is shopping for a face-protector. The second reason is even more absurd. Now that Sleepy Joe Biden is packing up for his move into the White House, investors expect the fake money to flow...Nancy Pelosi and Chuck Schumer announced last week that their last proposal - $3.4 trillion of additional fake money - was now just a 'starting point.' Is this 'normal?' And the Federal Reserve is 'printing' new money - debasing its own currency - at the rate of $11 billion per day. Is that 'normal?' Far from it. The whole program - spend, borrow, print"¦ boom, bubble, crash"¦ pain, panic, bailout"¦ spend, borrow, print"¦ boom, bubble, crash"¦ pain, panic, bailout"¦ - is grotesque and unnatural. And the weak link in this freakish chain is the U.S. dollar. The feds can print 'em. But they can't control their value....The St. Louis Fed reports that the 'velocity' of money - the rate at which money changes hands - has suddenly turned up. Zero Hedge: 'In a Friday note from Goldman's chief FX strategist Zach Pandal, he predicts that 'depreciation in the broad Dollar can continue in 2021' and writes that his USD cross forecasts translate into a 6% decline in the broad trade-weighted Dollar index over the next 12 months, and a 'sustained but orderly' 15% real depreciation from its 2020 peak to the end of 2024.' Is this the beginning of the end for the fake dollar"¦ the fake interest rates"¦ the fake stimulus"¦ the fake bailouts"¦ the fake recovery"¦ the fake stock market boom"¦ and all the rest of the fakiness? It is too early to tell."

Fed's Powell signals emergency credit programs should be extended -Reuters
"Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell said on Tuesday it was not time to shut down emergency programs aimed at battling the economic fallout from the coronavirus pandemic, with cases again surging and the economy left with 'a long way to go' to recover. 'I don't think it is time yet, or very soon,' to shutter the suite of credit programs set up by the Fed last spring with the authorization of the Treasury Department and funding from Congress, Powell said in the clearest indication yet he feels the programs are likely needed beyond Dec. 31, when many are due to expire. Extending the programs would require Treasury's approval under the 'lame-duck' Trump administration. Some Republicans in Congress have balked at keeping them open, particularly the program of lending for local governments. But Powell and other Fed officials are concerned about how competing perceptions of where the economy stands may bog down debate over the proper policy response....Powell said the recent news that experimental vaccines had been highly effective in trials is 'certainly good' in the medium term, but he noted that in the best case they won't be widely available for months. 'With the virus now spreading at a fast rate, the next few months will be very challenging,' he said."

Coronavirus Surge Drives Down U.S. Consumer Confidence -Morning Consult
"Morning Consult's daily U.S. Index of Consumer Sentiment reads 88.51 as of Nov. 17, down 2.13 points from the prior week. The drop in confidence this past week primarily reflects the increase in the spread of the coronavirus across the United States. The relationship between consumer confidence and the coronavirus has essentially become a rule at this point: When the average number of new daily coronavirus cases in a country increases, consumers in that country grow less confident in the economy. However, the inverse is not true: When new cases stabilize or decrease, confidence does not necessarily increase; rather, the effect of the virus on confidence weakens. In this sense, the relationship between the spread of the virus and consumer confidence is asymmetric. This rule has been on display across the largest economies in Europe over the past month, and now it's front and center again in the United States."

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Nov 19, 2020


11.19.20 - Feds Propose More Bank Spying

Gold last traded at $1,863 an ounce. Silver at $24.07 an ounce.

NEWS SUMMARY: Precious metal prices eased back Thursday on profit-taking and a firmer dollar. U.S. stocks fell amid disappointing U.S. unemployment data and rising coronavirus cases.

$3,000 Gold Could Be Just the Beginning -Sjuggerud/Daily Wealth
"The 1970s was the decade our country's monetary system changed forever. Until the 1970s, gold was what backed the value of our currency. If you wanted to convert your dollars to physical metal, you could do it. President Richard Nixon broke that structure in 1971. He removed gold's convertibility. And overnight, our gold-backed currency became backed only by full faith in the U.S. government. That change allowed the price of gold to fluctuate on its own for the first time. And it's why the 1970s gold boom was possible in the first place. There was another key driver though. Today, we'll look at what it was... and why it could push gold to $3,000 an ounce... or even higher....Clearly, the 1970s are the banner example of rising inflation triggering a gold boom. But that's far from the only time we've seen the trend play out. Importantly, the same kinds of things that set off inflation in these past scenarios are happening today...The Fed has once again lowered interest rates to zero in order to boost the economy. Even more, Fed Chairman Jerome Powell announced that he wants to keep interest rates low for at least three years...Today, inflation is at 1.3%. And if the Fed has any say in it, we could see that number rise to 4% - or even 6% - in the coming years. That will be enough to send gold on a multiyear bull run. And it means the metal could double - or more - from here. That means $3,000 could be just the beginning for gold. It won't happen overnight. But the setup is in place. And that means you need to own the metal now."

climate Joe Biden's Net-Zero Isn't Normal -Darwall/Real Clear Energy
"Those hoping that a vote for Joe Biden would be a ticket to normalcy will be disappointed. 'At this moment of profound crisis,' the Biden-Harris transition website states, 'we have the opportunity to build a more resilient, sustainable economy - one that will put the U.S. on an irreversible path to achieve net-zero emissions, economy-wide, by no later than 2050.' Resilient and sustainable? The U.S. has just achieved energy independence - a goal sought by every president since Richard Nixon. Those economic and strategic advantages will be thrown away by a Biden administration as it moves to outlaw domestically produced oil and gas in favor of vast quantities of imported minerals from countries such as China, the Democratic Republic of Congo, and Russia for use in wind turbines, solar panels, and electric vehicles. As for resiliency, better check out California, the state of the rolling blackout, to get an idea of the results that come from pursuing such a strategy. Of course, a Biden administration promises millions of 'green jobs' - because generating energy from wind and solar is highly labor-intensive. A 2017 analysis found that to produce the same amount of electricity as one worker in the coal sector required two in the natural gas sector and 79 workers in the solar sector. One megawatt hour of electricity generated from wind and solar is worth less than one from gas- or coal-fired power stations because wind and solar produce electricity only when the wind is blowing and the sun is shining - and not necessarily when people want it....Economic logic, therefore, suggests that energy prices will be higher and wages lower in an economy using more wind and solar power. In January 2020, before Covid struck, the national payroll average weekly wage was $971.15. For workers in the oil and gas sector, weekly pay was $2,059.28 - more than double the national average. By contrast, in 2019, the average wage for wind turbine technicians was $1,014.71 a week; for solar panel installers, it was $860.91. Solar panel installers must work 2.4 times longer to earn the same pre-tax wages as workers in the oil and gas industry....Since 2005, American has boosted its production of natural gas by 75% and since 2008, of crude oil by a spectacular 145%. To give up being the world's hydrocarbon superpower represents a huge strategic and economic sacrifice that no other country is making. And yet an even greater one is being demanded. Enforcing net-zero requires continuous state interventions across society to bring about unprecedented changes in people's lifestyles and habits, with more bans, rules, and taxes sustained not over a few electoral cycles but over the next three decades. Put simply, net-zero is incompatible with federalism and the separation of powers." [Rupert Darwall is a senior fellow of the RealClear Foundation and author of THE CLIMATE NOOSE: BUSINESS, NET ZERO AND THE IPCC'S ANTICAPITALISM.]

Feds Propose Even More Surveillance of Your Banking Habits -Reason
"It is remarkable just how unremarkable America's massive financial surveillance system has become to most people. Americans were rightly outraged when Edward Snowden revealed the government's widespread spying campaigns on online communications. Yet every day, our financial transactions are subject to similar scrutiny. The programs aren't even secret: you can read up about them on official government websites. But for some reason, we accept this surveillance as a fact of life. We shouldn't. If you give an agent a surveillance program, he will try to expand it. This is the case with the many legally questionable financial reporting requirements sprung forth from the Bank Secrecy Act of 1970 (BSA), which is kind of like the PATRIOT Act for money. Most recently, the Federal Reserve and Treasury Department have proposed expanding what is called the 'travel rule' to capture international funds transfers above $250. Currently, financial institutions are required to make certain reports on customers when they send international transactions in excess of $3,000. This has been the threshold since the travel rule was first adopted in the U.S. in 1996, despite inflation since then. Here's how it works: Let's say someone wants to send $5,000 to someone else in the U.S. or abroad. That person goes to their bank and tells them where they'd like to send the money. The bank, by law, must collect, store, and send certain identifying data to the receiving financial institution, including the name, address, and account information for the sender and receiver. This data must be passed along intermediary financial institutions and stored for at least five years. It isn't immediately shared with the government unless it is determined to be 'suspicious' enough to trigger Suspicious Activity Report (SAR) requirements under the BSA. In other words: banks must keep this data on hand in case the government needs it. These surveilled people are suspected of no crime, nor are they given any opportunity to opt out of this data collection. Still, the government preemptively requires that their transactions be tagged and tracked as if they had done something wrong. The threat of government involvement is apparent. It has effectively deputized banks to keep treasure troves of transaction data on hand in case it should become useful. But there are many other good reasons that innocent people should oppose these programs that don't have to do with the government at all. Forcing third parties to maintain financial records on transactions gives them an intimate window into your life....If the Federal Reserve and Treasury Department had considered the proposed $250 travel rule's privacy costs on individuals, perhaps it would not pass a cost-benefit test. Actually, maybe it would prompt the agencies to rethink the architecture of our financial surveillance altogether."

A Way Forward for Judy Shelton -Editors/New York Sun
"The Democrats may be celebrating this evening their success in at least temporarily blocking the Senate from voting on the nomination to the Federal Reserve of Judy Shelton. It might not be the end of the line, though. For it looks like Ms. Shelton has the votes - if they can only get to the Senate floor before the end of November. Senator McConnell and the White House seem determined to stick with it, and we certainly wish them luck. It's an important moment in America's long debate over monetary reform. The vote in the Senate this afternoon against ending debate on Ms. Shelton was 50 to 47. Mr. McConnell switched to the Democratic side at the last moment, a maneuver that preserves his right to move to reconsider, which he promptly did. Two other Republicans were quarantining, either because of Covid (Senator Grassley) or because of exposure (Senator Rick Scott). If they can get back, the odds on reconsideration are for a vote of 50 to 49 in favor. That's without Vice President Pence having to come back from vacation to break a tie. It's amazing to us that three Republican senators - Susan Collins, Lamar Alexander, and Mitt Romney - have fallen away on this issue. Ms. Shelton's positions on the Federal Reserve, after all, strike us as fitting in fine with the GOP's, as outlined in the party platform on which Mr. Trump stood in 2016. The platform's most important feature relating to the Fed is the establishment of a monetary commission - similar to one President Reagan and Congress convened - to consider the feasibility of a metallic basis for U.S. currency. We're coming up on the 50th anniversary of fiat money, meaning money that is not defined in law and is not backed with specie, such as gold or silver. How does the era of fiat money compare to, say, the era of the gold-exchange standard that obtained during Bretton Woods? That was the world's monetary system between 1945 and 1971. America redeemed dollars held by foreign governments at a 35th of an ounce of gold. The record of that period ought to be the envy of Democrats as well as Republicans. Unemployment averaged something like 4.6%...Why in the world would either party rule out of consideration for the Fed a nominee who has studied this for a whole career? It's easy to see of what doctrinaire Democrats are so scared. The vast deficits and government debts Congress has been racking up would be harder to take on under a sound money system. It's much harder to comprehend the opposition to Ms. Shelton by the several members of the GOP who are voting against her or failing to vote at all."

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Nov 18, 2020


11.18.20 - Interest Rates Could Go Deeply Negative

Gold last traded at $1,874 an ounce. Silver at $24.45 an ounce.

NEWS SUMMARY: Precious metal prices eased slightly Wednesday despite a weaker dollar. U.S. stocks traded mixed as investors digested more positive news on the coronavirus vaccine front.

When Gold Prices Go Up, Jewelry Prices Follow -New York Times
"The sharp rise in gold prices this year has affected more than just investors looking for safer places than the stock market to stash their money. Designers of demi-fine jewelry - the popular category designed for casual wear, and priced to encourage just modestly guilty shopping - are struggling with the increased cost, as are the retailers that carry their brands. On Jan. 1, gold was priced at slightly less than $1,550 an ounce; by Oct. 1, it was hovering at $1,900 for the same amount. And prices have continued to fluctuate, including in the wake of the American presidential election. The change has been driven, as it often is during uneasy times, by the perceived security of investing in gold....Jane Collins, a senior strategist at the trend forecasting company WGSN, said the design industry was being forced to adapt: 'The challenge will be in creating fun and highly creative design solutions.' But customers also will, in most cases, pay more. 'It does make a huge difference and we have to be incredibly conscious about it,' said Zoe Chicco, the founder and designer of her namesake Los Angeles-based jewelry line...'I need to hit a price point that is between $500 and $700 to keep myself in this category, so what does that look like?' she said....Although sales of gold jewelry are down over all - they decreased globally by about 29 percent from July through September in comparison with the same period last year, according to a recent report from the World Gold Council - demi-fine sales have stayed strong....Bank of America predicted gold might rise to as much as $3,000 an ounce by the end of 2021. With that in mind, more cost-conscious jewelry innovations look likely. 'Once it gets past the $2,000-per-ounce price point, that's when there starts to be an issue,' Ms. Collins said. 'That's when we'll see designers and buyers start to really reconsider strategy.'"

percentage Interest Rates Could Go Deeply Negative -Dyson/Rogue Economics
"A new, terrifying idea is gaining traction"¦ Deeply negative interest rates. (When I talk about 'deeply negative interest rates,' I'm talking about short-term interest rates anywhere from -1% to -5%.) No nation has dared to try this yet. (Switzerland has the world's lowest interest rates, currently at -0.75%.) But it's been 'under discussion' in academia and the civil service for a couple of years now. Hugh Hendry, a former hedge fund manager, is probably the loudest advocate for this. Hendry is an unconventional thinker and one of my favorite financial analysts to follow. He called for deeply negative rates again last week in a major tweet storm on Twitter"¦ Paraphrasing his tweet storm"¦ 'The global economy needs a much lower dollar if the feds want to stimulate the economy and stoke investors' 'animal spirits' again. The Federal Reserve understands this but is not able to implement it because the rest of the world - especially the big exporting nations - is holding the dollar 'hostage' at a high valuation by hoarding dollars and refusing to let the dollar's exchange rate fall. The Fed, therefore, needs to set interest rates at -2%, -3%, or even -5%. In essence, by taking rates deeply negative like this, the U.S. government would be telling other countries, 'You're welcome to hoard dollars and exploit our dollar-based system if you want, but we're going to charge you a 3% user fee for the privilege.' I have two comments on this. First, deeply negative interest rates are probably coming, and we'll see them in the U.S. within a couple of years"¦Deeply negative interest rates are how the Fed 'rescues' the dollar from its high exchange rate and lowers the value of the dollar. Second, I personally will not tolerate my bank charging me negative interest rates. There's no way I'd pay my bank to hold a deposit for me. If they charged me negative interest rates, I would immediately remove my funds and invest them in gold, silver, or oil tankers. I think many others would feel this way, too. If I'm right and deeply negative interest rates are coming, it's going to be very bullish for the prices of gold, silver, and other hard assets."

America Locks Down From Atlantic to Pacific as Covid Rages -Bloomberg
"In a matter of days, America's long effort to revive its virus-battered economy has been put on pause - or thrown into reverse - as new infections soar at the fastest pace since the pandemic's earliest days. California on Monday reinstituted bans on many indoor businesses, and its governor warned he may impose a curfew. Michigan has ordered a three-week partial shutdown, while states including Oregon, Washington and New Jersey tightened curbs. Even the governor of Iowa, long resistant to virus rules, issued a limited mask mandate Monday. The new restrictions follow a rapid surge in cases - with the country adding a million infections in the first 10 days of November alone - that has led health officials to issue dire warnings about the prospect of uncontrollable outbreaks as the Thanksgiving holiday approaches. 'The whole country is on fire,' said Ellie Murray, assistant professor of epidemiology at the Boston University School of Public Health. 'Since people can be infectious before they have symptoms, a lot of people right now are infectious and transmitting to people and don't know it. We're trying to get a grip on this large explosion.' The nation's average new-case count for the past seven days has jumped 37%, according to Johns Hopkins University data, the fastest at any point in the U.S. since late March....Businesses that have already endured lockdowns and restrictions on how they operate face the prospect of even more disruption. Barry Gutin, a co-founder of Cuba Libre, a Philadelphia restaurant that will mark 20 years in December, said losses already were piling up with capacity restricted to 50%. On Monday, the city said it would ban indoor dining, as well as close performance spaces, gyms and libraries. Gutin called it 'another gut punch which will make it much more difficult.'...'Right now we're living on borrowings and my partner's and my savings,' Gutin said. 'Our job is to find ways to lose less money.'"

Will Biden "Listen To The Science"? -Paul/Zero Hedge
"Former Vice President Joe Biden has not been officially declared the winner of the 2020 presidential election, but that has not stopped him from forming a coronavirus task force. The task force is composed of supporters of increased government control. One idea Biden and his task force are considering is a four to six weeks nationwide lockdown. However, supporting a nationwide lockdown would violate Biden's campaign pledge to 'listen to the science.' The evidence regarding lockdowns is so overwhelming that even the World Health Organization (WHO) has been forced to admit the truth: lockdowns do more harm than good. Lockdowns result in more instances of depression, suicide, domestic violence, and alcohol and drug abuse. Lockdowns also cause people to not go to hospitals or doctors' offices, leading to people dying because they failed to obtain medical assistance in a timely manner. Biden also is working with governors, mayors, and other state and local officials to create a de facto national mask mandate. Biden has also declared he will mandate mask wearing in all federal buildings and for people traveling interstate. A mask mandate for interstate travel could mean you will be required to wear a mask on airplanes, trains, and even when driving in your own car if you cross state lines. Yet again, Biden is ignoring the science. In this case the science has demonstrated that most masks are ineffective at preventing the spread of a virus. Medical science also shows that wearing a mask for extended periods of time can cause health problems. For example, mask wearing interferes with proper breathing....Biden is not the only politician pushing authoritarian 'solutions' to coronavirus. The government of Washington, DC is considering authorizing vaccinating of children without parental consent...This is especially important these days, as we are dealing with a vaccine that is being rushed into production for political reasons and that even the manufactures admit will have serious side effects."

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Nov 17, 2020


11.17.20 - Recognizing Data Uncertainty in COVID Debate

Gold last traded at $1,885 an ounce. Silver at $24.56 an ounce.

NEWS SUMMARY: Precious metal prices steadied Tuesday on mixed economic data and a weaker dollar. U.S. stocks fell as a sharp decline in drug store shares and disappointing retail sales weighed on the broader market.

Are precious metals a buy after the US election? -Capital
"Gold prices climbed above $2,000 per ounce in August, an all-time high, then retreated to trade between $1,850-1,950 per ounce. The gold price after election results was initially higher, rising to the top of the range....The next resistance level for gold is the September 16 high of $1,975 per ounce, followed by $2,015 per ounce and $2,075 per ounce - bringing it back to the all-time high....Technical gold price analysis shows that the Bollinger bands suggest scope for a pullback on gold and the relative strength index (RSI) was overbought, but selloffs in the market are opportunities to buy. The moving average convergence divergence (MACD) gave a buy signal after the election and the market remains in an upward trend for the medium term....Silver reached its highest level since 2013 in August, rising above $29 per ounce, then dropped back to trade around $23-25 per ounce....Silver is likely to find some support from rising industrial production in China, a large proportion of the metal is used in physical applications rather than investment. Silver mining has been disrupted by Covid-19 lockdowns, tightening supply during the year....The gold/silver ratio - the number of ounces of silver needed to buy one ounce of gold - dropped from a record high of 114.77 in April to 68.99 in August and has slipped to around 76 currently from 79.50 in October....US-based Citibank is bullish with its gold price forecast, setting a three-month price target of $2,200 per ounce and a six-to-12 month target of $2,400 per ounce. Its 2021 base case forecast is $2,275 per ounce."

news Time to Recognize Data Uncertainty in COVID Debates -National Review
"As we rush to embrace an 'obey the experts' technocracy in the fight against COVID, media and commentators often assume that the epidemiological data justifying proposed draconian policies - such as lockdowns - are clear. But that's not true. And that should give our policymakers pause before attempting to impose policies that are likely, in some cases, to be popularly resisted. This cogent point was made recently by the editor of a professional epidemiology journal. From, 'Data Versus Truth in the Midst of a Pandemic,' by Jim Rohrer: 'Uncounted scientific articles have been published about the pandemic. Missing from all this information and analysis is frank recognition of the uncertainty in the assumptions upon which data analysis and forecasts are based. State mitigation strategies are based partly on guidance from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) and partly on local politics. The effectiveness of different mitigation strategies is not strongly supported by population-based evidence, yet television news programs constantly bring out 'experts' who insist that if we only did this or that, pandemic deaths would have been avoided.' Rohrer points a finger at media outlets use of talking heads to opine about the pandemic who may be unqualified or too impacted by conditions on the ground to see the bigger picture....This much seems true: 'The experts' need a little more humility in their policy prognostications. Perhaps more important, the media and social platforms need to be less censorious of heterodox opinions and policy advocacy about COVID. Otherwise, crucial democratic deliberation about the advisability of proposed policies will be shortchanged and trust eroded."

Biden Hires Economic Team With Focus On Systemic Racism -Zero Hedge
"Reflecting the influence that blacks, particularly black women, are expected to have in an administration that will feature the first female, and first black AND the first Indian vice president, the Biden team has already made a point to fill its transition team with minorities, moreso than any previous administration. According to Bloomberg, the Biden team has already selected dozens of progressive economists to help with the transition, including Mehrsa Baradaran, whose book 'the Color of Money', is a critical text for contemporary left-wing economists. She's joined by Lisa Cook, an economist at Michigan State University, on the 'landing team' for banking and securities regulators, including selecting potential new members of the Federal Reserve board of governors (for which there is presently one vacancy). They are among more than 500 experts who will be called upon to deliver an important racial 'perspective' as Biden and his team hash out reforms related to health-care, housing and other issues. Unsurprisingly, the radical 'economists' quoted in the Bloomberg story praised Biden's staffing decisions as an 'incredible signal to the black community'....While 50% of the Biden-Harris 'landing team' will be made up of women, more than 40% of the administration's advisers are expected to be from outside groups that are historically underrepresented in the federal government, including racial minorities, people with disabilities and those who identify as LGBTQ....The big question right now, though, is how might Biden react when these same advisors urge him to throw the full weight of his influence in supporting the Green New Deal?"

Finding Hope When Everything Feels Hopeless -Bernstein/Wall Street Journal
"I've got the perfect four-letter word for the moment: Hope. Yes, it feels increasingly elusive - seven months into a pandemic, during an emotionally exhausting election cycle, as winter bears down. Yet hope is the very best reaction for the moment, psychologists say. It's crucial to our physical and mental health. It guards against anxiety and despair. And it protects us from stress: Research shows that people with higher levels of hope have better coping skills and bounce back from setbacks faster. They're better at problem-solving and have lower levels of burnout. They have stronger relationships, because they communicate better and are more trusting. And they're less-stressed parents - more able to teach their children to set goals and solve problems. 'You can think of hope as a PPE - a Personal Protective Emotion,' says Anthony Scioli, a professor of psychology at Keene State College in Keene, N.H., and co-author of 'Hope in the Age of Anxiety' and 'The Power of Hope.'....Think of it like this: If you want to lose 10 pounds, you need a plan - a healthy diet or an exercise program - and the willpower to follow it. Without this, you've got no real hope for a fitter body. Just wishful thinking....The good news: Hope is malleable. You can boost it. Scientists say it's important that the area of the brain that activates when we feel hopeful - the rostral anterior cingulate cortex - sits at the intersection of the limbic system, which governs our emotions, and the prefrontal cortex, where thoughts and actions are initiated. This shows we have some influence over feelings of hope (or hopelessness). 'Hope is a choice,' says Rick Miller, clinical director of the Center for the Advanced Study and Practice of Hope at Arizona State University....Remember: Hope begets hope. 'When people around you are energized, that can energize you, as well,' says Dr. Milona."

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Nov 16, 2020


11.16.20 - 'Voter Fraud' in Key States -FEC Chairman

Gold last traded at $1,888 an ounce. Silver at $24.72 an ounce.

NEWS SUMMARY: Precious metal prices steadied Monday amid upbeat vaccine news and a flat dollar. U.S. stocks cheered Moderna's announcement of positive preliminary CV-19 vaccine trials which sparked economic recovery hopes.

Gold's bull market will continue into 2021 for these 3 reasons -Goldman/Business Insider
"The more than 20% rally in gold year-to-date is set to continue into 2021 as the structural bull market continues on for the precious metal. That's according to Goldman Sachs, who said in a note on Friday that recent weakness in gold prices could be explained by the rotation towards value from defensive assets like gold and long term growth stocks. In the short-term, gold prices could continue to consolidate sideways...but in the longer-term, gold 'should benefit from continued strong investment demand.' 1) 'Inflation expectations move higher.' - With policies surrounding the COVID-19 pandemic focused on fiscal spending, combined with household balance sheets at better levels than they were coming out of the 2008 recession, 'the Fed appears more willing to tolerate a temporary inflation overshoot,' Goldman said....2. 'The US dollar weakens.' - Goldman expects the falling US dollar to continue trending lower into 2021, which should help support gold prices....3. 'Emerging Market retail demand continues to recover.' - 'We see a strong rebound in EM gold demand which should support higher gold prices through the wealth effect,' Goldman said, adding that gold demand from China and India is already displaying signs of normalization...The firm has a $2,300/toz gold price target, which represent potential upside of 22% from Friday afternoon levels."

housing bubble Home Prices Are In a Bubble. Full Stop. -Brown/Bloomberg
"Rapidly rising housing prices in the U.S. has led to talk of another housing bubble like the one that helped trigger the financial crisis a little more than a decade ago. Consider that the Case-Shiller National Home Price index has gained in excess of 6% per year on average since January 2012, while net rental income has barely kept up with inflation, increasing just less than 2% per year. The result is that home prices seem as overvalued as they were in the spring of 2005, nine months before the peak....The chart below shows CAPE for U.S. home prices and the S&P 500 Index since 1996. Stock valuations soared in the late 1990s, only to crash from 2000 - 2002, tread water for six years, then tumble again in 2008. Home valuations ignored the 2000 equity crash, but shared the 2008 crash. Since then the two have increased roughly in line, but with home prices starting from a higher level. As a result, equity valuations are still well below peak values, but home prices are approaching the historic highs. Much of the focus on the housing market lately has centered on the short-term environment, with the low inventory of homes cited for rising prices and a jump in rental vacancy rates driving rents lower. But if the concern is the possibility of major economic disruption - rather than just whether houses are good investments at current prices - the focus should be on long-term macroeconomics...A bubble in housing requires widespread overvaluation over years, which is what we have witnessed....Today's high valuations can be explained by low interest rates, as has been the usual pattern in the past. That might lead one to expect a typical correction, where housing prices deflate over a few years with differences among regions. Many homeowners are hurt in places where prices were especially high, and also in places with especially bad economic problems....The bad news is all previous history came at higher mortgage rates. The average 30-year fixed mortgage rate fell below 3% for the first time in August 2020, and rates are close to the lowest possible levels given the credit risk and costs of writing mortgages. It's one thing to be a peak valuation, it's another to be at peak valuation with no discernable upside. It's implausible that housing prices can go up from here without large increases in rents, which require increases in demand for housing. That's an unlikely outcome in a recession. If the recession continues, where will new demand come from? If it ends, interest rates go up, pushing housing prices down....The bad news is there's a lot more downside than upside for average homebuyers, and some of them are very likely to suffer in 2021."

America's unending spending frenzy -Benko/Washington Times
"Uncle Sam has grown so massive that, Democrat or Republican, Washington Insider or citizen, we humans, officials like the president or congresspersons, card-carrying members of the Columnist Party like me, normal people, like you, have become as relevant to the scope of the government as barnacles on a derelict ship of state....Is our federal government really 40,000x bigger than the federal government President Washington ran? Nominally, yes. The mind boggles....Welcome to a congressperson's, and lobbyist's, paradise. From 1789-1849, altogether, Uncle Sam spent $1.09B. It took 60 years, cumulatively, to expend what the federal government now spends every 90 minutes or so. From 1850 to 1900 (including the Union's bill for the Civil War), it spent $14.46B. That's less than a day's federal spending, now. 2010, when I first noted this? Annual spending of $3.55 trillion. 2020? $6.3 trillion. Truly, spending of epic proportions....The classical gold standard on which America was, in practice, founded made the U.S. dollar retain its value for well over a century. A dollar was worth about the same in 1900 as at our founding in 1789. Thanks to Lyndon Johnson's killing and Richard Nixon's burying the gold standard, now it takes about $30 in 2020 dollars to buy an original dollar's worth of goods....Profligate federal spending, whoever gets elected, has become the constant. Not a variable. We're all just barnacles on a derelict Ship of State. Welcome, President-elect Biden. Care to exit the federal deficit orgy? Try a capital gains tax-rate cut and a 3% spending cap."

FEC Chairman Says He Believes "˜There Is Voter Fraud' in Key States -Epoch Times
"The chairman of the Federal Elections Commission (FEC) stated that he believes there is evidence of voter fraud and other alleged irregularities. In a recent interview, FEC Chairman Trey Trainor said reports of fraud in some battleground states are credible 'otherwise they would allow the [poll] observers to go in,' referring to reports of some polling areas refusing to allow GOP observers to check on the process on Election Day and the days after....In the interview, he agreed with Trump's campaign lawsuits, while saying that questionable actions by elections officials in several states could make the election illegitimate. Trainor, an appointee of President Donald Trump, noted that state laws allow those observers to be there, and 'if they're not,' then it's an 'illegitimate election.' 'Our whole political system is based upon transparency to avoid the appearance of corruption,' he said the interview while alleging that Pennsylvania and other states have not been transparent. 'I do believe that there is voter fraud taking place in these places,' he added....The Department of Homeland Security (DHS)'s Cybersecurity and Infrastructure Security Agency on Thursday concluded that the Nov. 3 election 'was the most secure in American history,' saying that 'election officials are reviewing and double checking the entire election process prior to finalizing the result.'"

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Nov 13, 2020


11.13.20 - Covid Vaccine Can't Kill Silver And Gold

Gold last traded at $1,888 an ounce. Silver at $24.68 an ounce.

NEWS SUMMARY: Precious metal prices extended gains Friday on safe-haven buying and dollar weakness. U.S. stocks rose as investors hoped for an effective vaccine and economic recovery next year.

A Covid Vaccine Can't Kill Silver And Gold -Krauth/Seeking Alpha
"Precious metals were dented by Pfizer's positive vaccine news, but I expect that will only last a short time, having scared some weak hands out of the sector. If anything, the selloff may be the catalyst many have been waiting for to help gold and silver establish a bottom, or at least an end to their consolidation. Odds are smart money is going to start buying the dips and accumulate gold and silver, as it gears up for the next, inevitable rally....Although highly positive and very reassuring, the truth is we're not going to be lining up tomorrow to get our first of two doses of Pfizer's vaccine. The road to normalcy, whatever that will mean, is still a long one....Realistically, Covid-19 is a long way from being a distant memory. Restricted movement, quiet cities, empty restaurants, cinemas and gyms, and mostly local tourism. Daily life will continue to trudge forward. Unfortunately, that also includes the world's ongoing geopolitical tensions....Debts and deficits are going to continue to soar. Even with a Republican-led Senate, Biden's still likely to get a $500 billion to $1 trillion 'skinny stimulus' bill passed early next year....Naturally, some gold and silver enthusiasts are asking themselves if a vaccine is enough to kill the Covid-19 virus, as well as the precious metals bull market...The big risk here is being short-sighted. After all, it's going to take a lot more than a Covid-19 vaccine to kill silver and gold."

social Distancing Everything You Don't Want to Know About Covid Vaccines -Smith/Of Two Minds
"Now that we've had the happy-talk about Pfizer's messenger-RNA (mRNA) vaccine (and noted that Pfizer's CEO sold the majority of his shares in the company immediately after the happy-talk), let's dig into messenger-RNA (mRNA) vaccines which are fast approaching regulatory approval. Some people have concluded vaccines are not safe, regardless of their source or mechanisms. These people will never take any Covid vaccine. Others will also decline a vaccine because they've concluded Covid is overblown. Fair enough. But many other people conclude Covid is dangerous, partly because so little is known about its long-term effects. Authorities desperate to restart the economy and reassure the populace are poised to approve novel vaccines using a new mechanism to generate an immune response: messenger RNA (mRNA) vaccines....Many in the field see the potential for mRNA to deliver superior vaccines because they can generate T-Cell responses as well as the conventional immune responses to viral particles. They are also easier and cheaper to manufacture, and may be stable at room temperature for a week, unlike the Pfizer vaccine which must be refrigerated at extremely cold temperatures (-100F). But these are the first mRNA vaccines ever seeking approval for human use, and so there are no long-term studies of what might go wrong down the road....Why would anyone trust that Big Pharma corporations will act in the public good rather than in pursuit of maximizing profits? The mad rush of profiteering Big Pharma corporations to own the first vaccine approved will create needless and potentially dangerous confusion about which vaccine actually works best over the longer term....The danger here in my view is the poorly-informed, politically polarized general public will assume a Covid vaccine is essentially 100% effective like a measles vaccine, when the real-world efficacy might be considerably less certain...No one knows how long the immunity generated by these vaccines will last....In a system that rewards self-serving statistical analysis and 'first to market,' a system where Big Pharma insiders reap millions of dollars selling their stock on the PR of happy-talk, is it even possible to have truly objective studies of a vaccine's efficacy and long-term effects? It seems doubtful."

Biden's COVID-19 Task Force Plan"¦ Pay People to Not Work -Regan/American Consequences
"The votes are still being tallied, recounted, and disputed in some key states, but that hasn't stopped Joe Biden from planning his next moves...If Biden's team is successful, our nation could ultimately usher in an era of big government unlike anything seen since the Works Projects Administration ('WPA') of the 1930s. Of course, back then, FDR initiated a government program that actually entailed work. The suggestion currently being floated by Biden's associates is literally the antithesis of work...Indeed, according to the newly minted member of Joe Biden's coronavirus task force, Dr. Michael Osterholm, We could pay people to lose their jobs....According to Osterholm, a director of the Center for Infectious Disease Research and Policy at the University of Minnesota, the only way to control the coronavirus infection is via a full-fledge lockdown"¦ 'We need to lockdown to drive the infection levels lower.'....The economic recovery will be much slower, with far more business failures and high unemployment for the next year or two. The path of the virus will determine the path of the economy. There won't be a robust economic recovery until we get control of the virus. Hey guys! Did you see the third-quarter GDP report with the most growth ever recorded?! 33.1% annualized - and unemployment has fallen to below 7%, a level most economists assumed couldn't happen until next year at best! In other words, Americans are making this work"¦ on their own. Without the help of a massive 'lose your job' program....The worst thing that could happen to our economy right now is for there to be another shutdown"¦ which is exactly what Biden's COVID-19 task team is advising....The solution? Borrow more money, according to Osterholm...Lockdown and borrow. All I can say is I sincerely hope not. Because if that's the doctor's prescription"¦ then get ready"¦ Socialism, here we come."

Joe Biden, the New York Times, 'Dark' Winters, and 'Terrifying Surges' -Tamny/Real Clear Markets
"'We have found that students are responding well to our voluntary, convenient, and free walk-up testing sites.' This is from a press release produced at Penn State University, and that was released this week to the New York Times. It seems Penn State, much like U.S. universities in all 50 states, has an aggressive coronavirus testing program as a way of keeping close track of the virus's spread on campus. Please think about the fact that testing for the coronavirus in what is the world's richest country is increasingly very convenient, and free....From there, let's travel to Indonesia on the other side of the world. This country can claim 270 million citizens versus roughly 330 million in the United States. Where it gets interesting is that according to a recent report in the Wall Street Journal, Indonesia has reported 11,000 deaths related to the coronavirus versus nearly 240,000 in the U.S....According to president-elect Joe Biden, what's bad now is about to be really bad as the winter months force people inside only for the virus to be given new life. As Biden has put it, Americans face 'a dark winter.' Biden's likely newspaper of choice, the New York Times, similarly engages in hyperbole. While it routinely reports that nearly half of all U.S. coronavirus deaths have been associated with nursing homes, it leads with splashy front-page headlines that give a rather different impression to readers....Bringing this all back to Indonesia, it would be fascinating to witness the perpetually alarmed explain the low number of 'coronavirus deaths' there. Are Indonesians genetically immune to infection from the virus, do they religiously wear N-95 masks while studiously avoiding touching their faces, do they have their own 'genius' Dr. Fauci equivalent whose gameplan has been brilliantly embraced by President Joko Widodo, or is it possible that Indonesia has a low death count precisely because it has a low testing rate? You see, according to the Journal, testing in Indonesia has been very rare. 8 per 1,000 inhabitants kind of rare....The more a country tests, the more infections that country will unearth. Doctors and other experts can decide for themselves whether relentless testing is good, bad, or not terribly relevant, but it presumably explains a lot when it comes to virus spread in the U.S....Cast a skeptical eye on dire predictions of 'a dark winte' ahead by politicians, along with nail-biting headlines about 'terrifying surges.'"

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Nov 12, 2020


11.12.20 - How High Gold Will Go -Wells Fargo

Gold last traded at $1,874 an ounce. Silver at $24.31 an ounce.

NEWS SUMMARY: Precious metal prices rose Thursday on safe-haven buying and a weaker dollar. U.S. stocks traded mostly lower as the virus surge worries Wall Street and the vaccine rally pauses.

There is no telling how high gold will go -Wells Fargo/Kitco
"The gold market has been stuck in a fairly narrow range for nearly two months...However, one market analyst says that gold's destination is less important than the journey that it is currently on. In a recent interview with Kitco News, John LaForge, head of real asset strategy at Wells Fargo, said that he is maintaining his updated year-end target at $2,100 an ounce...Rather than looking at year-end targets, he said that investors should pay attention to the long-term uptrend...LaForge noted that since hitting an all-time high above $2,000 an ounce, gold has managed to hold critical support around $1,850 an ounce. He added that this is an indication of underlying strength in the marketplace. 'The fact that we pull back to $1,900 and then don't really get below that for long, I think we're on a new technical chart now,' he said. 'Direction really does matter more than price targets because when it breaks out when you get a new chart like this, you just don't know how high.'....Although LaForge said he is skeptical that gold prices can push back above $2,000 an ounce before the end of the year, he is a lot more confident that prices will hit his 2021 target of $2,300. LaForge said that he remains bullish on gold as nations continue to print money and devalue their currencies. He added that the U.S. hadn't felt the major effects of devaluation because it continues to hold the coveted reserve currency status. However, he added that it's only a matter of time before the U.S. joins in the race to the bottom. 'If we're looking at massive currency devaluation, you got to go into alternative assets, and gold continues to look good,' he said. 'You need to be in something that is going to holds its value.'"

vaccine A COVID-19 Vaccine Is on the Horizon -Bonner/Rogue Economics
"Hooray! A vaccine! The relief column is finally in sight. And soon, it will run off the fiendish COVID-19"¦ releasing the entire world from months of fear, loathing, death, and siege. But the economy has been largely sequestered"¦ locked up and locked down"¦ if not by edict, then by dread. Millions still cower in their homes. Millions are still unemployed. Restaurants in many areas remain closed or only half full....The virus focused its most lethal attacks on the weakest part of the population - those in nursing homes. And from them, it stole little of their lives, simply because they had little left to steal. And yet, the coronavirus, like a strange, black sun, cast a long shadow over the entire world....The threat of the virus - at least, after it was pumped up by health authorities and the sensationalist press - was in a class by itself....But while the new miracle drug from Pfizer may or may not prove effective against COVID-19, there is no elixir so powerful that it can revive a dying empire. It was probably a desire to get back to normal - more, even, than the alleged votes from dead people - that gave Joe Biden a slim margin of victory in the U.S. presidential election....The trouble with the liberals is that they really do think they can all live at each other's expense. And they see each passing fad as God's Eternal Truth....A headline from The Washington Post probably tells us all we need to know about how government will work over the next four years: Long-standing ties between Biden and McConnell could shape early agenda Trump was an outsider in Washington. A 'disrupter.' Biden is very much an insider. Senate majority leader Mitch McConnell and president-elect Joe Biden have worked together - shifting power and wealth to themselves and their fellow insiders - for a combined total of 84 years. Both are go-along, get-along Swamp-dwellers - the most elite of America's late, degenerate, imperial class of connivers and flimflammers. What this means to us is that the Biden team will face little opposition to its big spending/big printing plans....It's back to 'normal,' in other words"¦ or at least to the ersatz 'normal' that you get when a nation is in a steep decline."

Is social media ready for a Covid-19 vaccine? -Vox
"On Monday, Pfizer and BioNTech announced in a press release that their vaccine candidate was more than 90 percent effective at preventing Covid-19 infection, based on initial results from their ongoing phase 3 clinical trial. The company expects to have applied for emergency use authorization with the Food and Drug Administration (FDA) by the end of November and could have as many as 50 million doses produced by the end of 2020. This is tremendous news - and misinformation about it is already circulating on social media. According to research from VineSight, a slew of Twitter accounts...are already questioning the timing of the results' release just days after the presidential election....The dream of bringing a speedy end to the pandemic is a complicated one. Even when a vaccine does win initial FDA authorization in the United States, we should expect a lengthy period of 'chaos and confusion,' one expert recently told the New York Times. Much of that disarray could play out on social media. From the possibility of multiple vaccines to regionally distinct distribution plans to still-evolving research, the process of vaccine implementation is already stoking anxiety and misinformation...They must act sooner rather than later to grapple with the task of communicating and moderating this next period of the pandemic, according to Jennifer Reich, a sociology professor at the University of Colorado Denver who has studied vaccine hesitance. 'This is not going to be magic,' Reich told Recode. 'I think that the way the vaccine has been messaged has been like, 'Just wait till we have a vaccine and then we can all go back to life as normal.' That's probably not a realistic expectation.'"

Biden's economic agenda and its effects -Mulligan/The Hill
"In an effort to advance equality, environmental protection and other social goals, President-elect Joe Biden has proposed an ambitious and historic agenda, particularly in four areas: taxation, health insurance, regulation and energy policy. His full agenda would significantly reduce productivity, discourage work and discourage investment. Coauthors Hassett, Fitzgerald, Kallen and I estimate that following this path would reduce median ('middle class') annual family income about $6,500 by the year 2030. Employment would drop by about five million jobs. Most of Biden's agenda requires congressional action, but the Senate will have more than 50 members (Republicans plus moderate Democrats) who do not favor such radical changes. That will make it difficult to raise taxes, fund a health insurance public option and other expansions of ObamaCare, resurrect the costly and politically unpopular individual mandate or get Congress to appropriate enough subsidy dollars to allow renewable energy to overtake fossil fuels. That leaves federal agency regulation as the primary tool Biden would have left. As President Trump is apt to explain, regulations are 'stealth taxation, especially on the poor.'....Consumers will likely be squeezed the hardest as a Biden administration regulates the business of health. President Trump removed Obama's prohibitions against the most affordable health insurance plans (maligned as 'junk plans') that consumers strongly prefer to ObamaCare. Biden will likely prohibit them again in the name of 'making ObamaCare better.'....Biden's Department of Transportation could require that vehicle manufacturers produce primarily electric vehicles, which is one of Biden's ambitious climate goals. We estimate that this policy by itself would increase the quality-adjusted price of new cars and pickups by more than $12,000."

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Nov 11, 2020


11.11.20 - Stocks Wobble, Investors Grow Cautious

Gold last traded at $1,877 an ounce. Silver at $24.33 an ounce.

NEWS SUMMARY: Precious metal prices stepped back Wednesday on profit-taking and a firmer dollar. U.S. stocks traded mixed as investors bought tech shares after upbeat CV-19 vaccine news.

Gold climbs as focus returns to loose monetary policy -CNBC
"Gold prices rose 1% on Tuesday, following a sharp slide in the last session, as focus returned to the likelihood of more monetary stimulus to revive a global economy still reeling from the Covid-19 pandemic....Central banks are unlikely to change their accommodative stance in the near to medium term as it will take time for a vaccine deployment and a pick-up in growth, inflation and labor market, said Lachlan Shaw, head of commodity research at National Australia Bank. 'If inflation expectations pick up as a result of increased economic activity from the vaccine, that should keep a lid on long U.S. real yields and be a supporting driver for gold.' Gold tends to benefit from widespread stimulus as it is considered a hedge against inflation and currency debasement. While vaccine optimism boosted risk appetite, uncertainties continued to loom over the impact of surging Covid-19 cases in the United States and Europe. 'I still think we've got more stimulus coming and the Fed will keep rates low, while a vaccine is going to provide that reflationary impulse...That's why the markets are still holding onto gold,' said Stephen Innes, chief global market strategist at financial services firm Axi."

declaration A Sensible and Compassionate Anti-COVID Strategy -Dr. Bhattacharya/Imprimis
"In discussing the deadliness of COVID, we need to distinguish COVID cases from COVID infections. A lot of fear and confusion has resulted from failing to understand the difference....1. The COVID-19 Fatality Rate....When the World Health Organization said back in early March that three percent of people who get COVID die from it, they were wrong by at least one order of magnitude. The COVID fatality rate is much closer to 0.2 or 0.3 percent. The reason for the highly inaccurate early estimates is simple: in early March, we were not identifying most of the people who had been infected by COVID....2. Who Is at Risk?....A common perception that COVID is equally dangerous to everybody, but this couldn't be further from the truth. There is a thousand-fold difference between the mortality rate in older people, 70 and up, and the mortality rate in children....3. Deadliness of the Lockdowns....The widespread lockdowns that have been adopted in response to COVID are unprecedented - lockdowns have never before been tried as a method of disease control...the U.N. has estimated that 130 million additional people will starve this year as a result of the economic damage resulting from the lockdowns....Large numbers of Americans, even though they had cancer and needed chemotherapy, didn't come in for treatment because they were more afraid of COVID than cancer....Mental health problems are in a way the most shocking thing. In June of this year, a CDC survey found that one in four young adults between 18 and 24 had seriously considered suicide....4. Where to Go from Here.... In October 2020 I met with two other epidemiologists - Dr. Sunetra Gupta of Oxford University and Dr. Martin Kulldorff of Harvard University - in Great Barrington, Massachusetts. The three of us come from very different disciplinary backgrounds and from very different parts of the political spectrum. Yet we had arrived at the same view - the view that the widespread lockdown policy has been a devastating public health mistake. In response, we wrote and issued the Great Barrington Declaration, which can be viewed - along with explanatory videos, answers to frequently asked questions, a list of co-signers, etc. - online at www.gbdeclaration.org....Herd immunity is not a strategy - it is a biological fact that applies to most infectious diseases...The vaccine will help, but herd immunity is what will bring it to an end. Our strategy is not to let people die, but to protect the vulnerable. We know the people who are vulnerable, and we know the people who are not vulnerable....When scientists have spoken up against the lockdown policy, there has been enormous pushback: 'You're endangering lives.' ...Science can't do its job in an environment where anyone who challenges the status quo gets shut down or cancelled....To date, the Great Barrington Declaration has been signed by over 43,000 medical and public health scientists and medical practitioners. The Declaration thus does not represent a fringe view within the scientific community....Together, I think we can get on the other side of this pandemic. But we have to fight back...We should respond to the COVID virus rationally: protect the vulnerable, treat the people who get infected compassionately, develop a vaccine. And while doing these things we should bring back the civilization that we had so that the cure does not end up being worse than the disease."

Fauci Admitted The Truth About COVID-19 Tests In July And Has Misled The Public Since -PJ Media
"One of the most frustrating aspects of COVID-19 coverage has been the emphasis on 'cases,' reinforced by Dr. Anthony Fauci. In fact, he was wringing his hands about rising 'case' numbers on CNN in early October. These numbers are actually positive tests. The New York Times and several experts admitted in late August that up to 90% of positive PCR tests were not indicative of the active illness that could be transmitted to others. As it turns out, Fauci expressed a similar opinion in July: 'What is now sort of evolving into a bit of a standard,' Fauci said, is that 'if you get a cycle threshold of 35 or more "¦ the chances of it being replication-confident are minuscule.'....He also noted that the Ct count is not provided to patients and physicians automatically. The tests are simply returned as positive or negative. The entire idea of 'asymptomatic' cases dissolves once you understand this....Dr. Fauci and other 'experts' like former FDA Director Dr. Scott Gottlieb are constantly pushing positive tests and lamenting a rise in their numbers. They erroneously refer to these numbers as cases, which they are not under any previous definition. It is also clear there is likely some significant number of false positives. So what gives? COVID-19 was obviously used as a rhetorical weapon to club President Trump. It became clear late in the election that Dr. Fauci was more political than he portrayed when he essentially endorsed Joe Biden. Further, some segment of the public health establishment wants widespread vaccination and other policies like mask mandates and rolling lockdowns. High 'case' numbers allow them to push these policies....Perhaps most deceptive, the Ct is a simple lever to pull to keep you in line and make Joe Biden look like a hero. His new COVID panel will develop and implement a plan. Then positive cases will magically drop, not because these policies were effective but simply because they will dial down the Ct with clear guidelines. However, this will cement the supremacy of 'experts' in the minds of many Americans who have not seen the dishonest little man behind the curtain. Don't be one of those people."

Stocks Wobble as Investors Grow Cautious -Wall Street Journal
"U.S. stocks wobbled Tuesday, with elevated Covid-19 infection levels, muted stimulus expectations and caution about the timing of vaccines tempering the exuberance that left major indexes hovering near record highs one day earlier....The Dow and S&P indexes set intraday records Monday after a coronavirus vaccine developed by Pfizer and partner BioNTech showed in an early analysis to be more than 90% effective in protecting people from Covid-19. The Nasdaq Composite fell 1.3%, pulling back for a second consecutive day. The stock market rally was likely overdone, investors said. The pandemic is far from over, and questions remain about how quickly any vaccines may become available....'The pandemic still has a ways to go, unfortunately,' said Nick Brooks, head of economic and investment research at Intermediate Capital Group. 'The Pfizer development is a great development, but I don't think it's the game-changer that markets seem to perceive.' There are still many questions about how quickly vaccines can be rolled out once they are approved by regulators, and how long the immunity would last, he added. Expectations that a Covid-19 vaccine could accelerate the global economic recovery led to a reordering of winners and losers Monday. Stocks of travel companies, retailers and banks were among the main beneficiaries. Tech companies, which have fueled most of this year's market rally, are looking like laggards this week. 'It's far too early for investors to be making a structural shift from growth to value,' Mr. Brooks said. 'There's been pretty substantial damage to economies and that's going to take some time to repair.' He cautioned that markets are likely to remain volatile."

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Nov 10, 2020


11.10.20 - Evidence of PPP Fraud Mounts -WSJ

Gold last traded at $1,877 an ounce. Silver at $24.33 an ounce.

NEWS SUMMARY: Precious metal prices rebounded Tuesday on bargain-hunting and a weaker dollar. U.S. stocks fell, led by tech, as investors moved out of stocks which thrived during the pandemic and into stocks linked to an economic recovery.

More Accommodative Fed Key to Next Gold Price Surge -FX Empire
"Bullish gold investors received a couple of gifts last week - Democrat Joe Biden was elected president of the United States and the U.S. Federal Reserve reiterated their support for the economy. The gift wasn't perfect, however, as the Democrats lost a few House votes and it looks as if the Republicans will retain control of the Senate....A Democratic president and House, and a Republican Senate is ideal for the gold market. Since neither party controls the Congress, both trade wars and higher taxes are largely off the table. Furthermore, the prospect of more gridlock also means that expectations for a massive U.S. fiscal stimulus package have been lowered. Removing massive coronavirus stimulus from the agenda sent bond yields sharply lower in anticipation of less borrowing and more quantitative easing from the U.S. Federal Reserve....The short-term outlook is clouded by doubts where fiscal policy may be headed in coming weeks, or how smooth the transition between an incoming Democratic administration led by Joe Biden and lame-duck administration led by Republican President Donald Trump will be. We are certain that a combination of fiscal stimulus, no matter what size, and a continuation of the Fed's emergency programs will be bearish for the U.S. Dollar and bullish for gold prices."

bacon Why the Biden Economy Could Be the Same Long Slog as the Obama Economy -Irwin/New York Times
"The Biden economy appears likely to show uncanny similarities to the 2011-to-2016 Obama economy...The Senate will probably be in the hands of Republicans - an opposition party perhaps willing to do enough to try to prevent steep damage to the economy and markets, but unwilling to embrace the kind of multi-trillion dollar spending agenda that could generate a Biden boom. This combination would mean that the Federal Reserve would be left playing the dominant role in trying to propel an economic recovery, with the downsides that would entail....The reaction to the election in financial markets in recent days suggests that something like the Obama recovery is more likely: in short, a long slog back to health. The stock market soared ...as investors priced in both easier money from the Fed and a Biden administration that will be constrained in its ability to raise taxes and expand regulation on businesses....'The whole blue wave idea that would have come with not only very generous stimulus in the near term but structural reforms and big infrastructure investment, that seems to be off the table,' said Julia Coronado, president of MacroPolicy Perspectives....The experience of the final six years of the Obama presidency looms large. In that span, Republicans controlled at least one chamber of Congress and blocked any large-scale fiscal policy - and insisted on spending cuts in response to high deficits. Legislative deal-making took place at the margins, if at all....So the biggest question may turn out to be this one: Has the pandemic fundamentally broken anything about the economy? If not, a speedy recovery may be possible even without a politically aligned Congress. If yes, it might feel like the early 2010s all over again."

Evidence of PPP Fraud Mounts, Officials Say -Wall Street Journal
"The federal government is swamped with reports of potential fraud in the Paycheck Protection Program, according to government officials and public data, casting a shadow on one of Washington's signature responses to the coronavirus pandemic. Congress and the Trump administration designed the PPP to give small businesses fast and easy access to taxpayer funds, and it worked: About $525 billion in loans were distributed to 5.2 million companies between April 3 and Aug. 8. Many business owners say it was a lifeline in turbulent times. But evidence is growing that many others took advantage of the program's open-door design. Banks and the government allowed companies to self-certify that they needed the funds, with little vetting. The Small Business Administration's inspector general, an arm of the agency that administers the PPP, said last month there were 'strong indicators of widespread potential abuse and fraud in the PPP.' The watchdog counted tens of thousands of companies that received PPP loans for which they appear to have been ineligible, such as corporations created after the pandemic began, businesses that exceeded workforce size limits (generally 500 employees or fewer) or those listed in a federal 'Do Not Pay' database because they already owe money to taxpayers....One type of suspicious activity banks reported were multiple government payments from coronavirus-relief programs to a single account, suggesting potential abuse, according to Kenneth Blanco, director of the Treasury Department's Financial Crimes Enforcement Network. Several hundred PPP-related investigations have been opened, involving nearly 500 suspects and hundreds of millions of dollars of loans, according to the Federal Bureau of Investigation....'It seems that a lot of that cash went to businesses that would have otherwise maintained relatively similar employment levels,' said David Autor, an MIT economics professor and one of the study's authors."

Biden Will Need to Get Creative to Save the Economy -Smith/Yahoo Finance
"When the President-elect takes office, he'll confront the country's two most acute challenges: an ongoing Covid-19 pandemic and the economic damage it's wrought. But he'll have an uphill battle to enact the sort of bold policy agenda that many supporters were hoping for. Barring a January surprise in Georgia's runoff election, Republicans are likely to retain control of the Senate, denying Biden the unified control of government that his predecessors enjoyed when they came into office. With traditional relief and stimulus measures limited by opposition party intransigence, Biden might still be able to pass policies designed to resuscitate the stricken service sector directly....The economy is being afflicted by two simultaneous maladies. The first is continued fear of the virus, now in the middle of a devastating third wave. Fear, more than lockdowns, has kept Americans shut inside their homes, reluctant to take the risk of going out to shop or eat. That in turn gives rise to the second problem of decreased demand, which filters through the entire economy. Fear of the virus will eventually be reduced by vaccines, which may become available in early 2021....Restaurants, shops, and other establishments that cater in person to customers have gone bust in large numbers. After the threat of the virus has passed, the U.S. government might try to resuscitate local economies by subsidizing new shops to fill the empty storefronts that now dot America's urban landscape....Strict free-market adherents might worry that this plan would delay or prevent needed transformation in the U.S.'s industrial mix. The pandemic has shifted demand from local services to e-commerce; people are watching Netflix instead of going to movie theaters, and ordering things off of Amazon instead of buying them in stores. Some will question whether reversing that shift should be an economic priority."

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Nov 9, 2020


11.9.20 - Partisanship Masking As Ignorance

Gold last traded at $1,856 an ounce. Silver at $23.66 an ounce.

NEWS SUMMARY: Precious metal prices fell Monday on profit-taking amid encouraging Covid-19 vaccine news. U.S. stocks soared to record levels as investors cheered trial data from drugmakers Pfizer and BioNTech indicating their Covid-19 vaccine is more than 90% effective.

Gold Investors Might Soon See A Price Of $2,500 Per Ounce -Seeking Alpha
"$10,000 invested in physical gold at the beginning of 2018 would have been worth about $15,000 now....Now, we are in a very favorable situation for the yellow shiny metal since the low interest rates are near zero. What is more, the Fed is planning to hold them near zero through 2022 to help the economy recover from the pandemic. Also, the Fed will still keep buying bonds, thus flooding the financial system with cheap money. This alone is bullish for gold....The US stimulus bill looks like a major hurdle for gold prices. But, in my opinion, it will eventually get passed...The size of this package is still unclear but could probably be over $2 trillion. This money will not come out of nowhere. The Fed will have to do more bond-buying, thus devaluing the dollar. This environment is highly bullish for the yellow metal. What is more, there is election uncertainty, which is also an extremely bullish factor for safe havens....E.B. Tucker, who correctly predicted gold would hit an all-time high this year, expects gold price to hit $2,500 per ounce by year-end."

chart Stock market's post-Election Day rally shows that gridlock in Washington is good for Wall Street -Hulbert/Marketwatch
"One reason the stock market soared in its post-Election Day trading session may be that it prefers political gridlock to a so-called blue wave. To be sure, the outcomes of the presidential race and many congressional races are not yet known. But it increasingly is looking as though gridlock is a winner. Prior to the election, in contrast, some oddsmakers had said there was a three-in-four chance that the Democrats would emerge with control of not only the presidency but both houses of Congress....The likely reason that Wall Street likes gridlock is that it reduces the possibility that any major policy changes will take effect. Sam Stovall, chief investment strategist at CFRA, noted in an email to clients that the increasingly likely gridlock 'lessens the prospects for an increase in regulations and taxes.' In addition, he added, the gridlock reduces the likelihood of 'additional fiscal stimulus' - and that reduced likelihood in turn eases potential inflationary pressures down the road....We need to be careful not to ascribe meaning to what may be random fluctuations in the market. We should never forget that many, if not most, of the stock market's daily gyrations are statistical noise. Still, a greater-than-2% rally in the S&P 500, along with a nearly 4% rally in the Nasdaq, seems large enough to demand explanation. Gridlock is the obvious reason."

Partisanship Masking As Ignorance: The Story of U.S. Pollsters -Rice/Real Clear Markets
"Dr. Evil from the Austin Powers movies frequently lamented: Why must I be surrounded by idiots? But there is something worse: Partisanship masquerading as incompetence. Pollsters - and their amen corner in the mainstream press - have proved beyond the shadow of any doubt they are practitioners of that low art - before, during and after the presidential election. Which still hangs in the balance. For months prior to Tuesday, the pollsters had Joe Biden not only up in practically every state but up by double digits in several of them. They projected a Biden blowout. This was duly reported - if you can call it that - by the same media that reported nothing - literally,nothing - about the Biden family's unsavory business dealings with Chinese communists....The same media reported as gospel the pollsters' double-digit pre-election predictions, which have proved to be off by orders of magnitude. Days after the election, Biden still hasn't won - despite the best efforts of the media to portray him as the winner....So much for the Biden landslide - not so much predicted incompetently but desired ardently. Which is the key to understanding what went 'wrong.'....Regarding the media's relentless reporting of every worst-case hypothetical scenario about the Coronavirus. We hear endlessly about 'the cases! the cases'! - almost never about the 99.6 percent recovery rate. Nothing about the 0.0-something mortality rate for children and young, healthy adults. No retraction about the '2-3 million' dead that never appeared. It's as if they want us to believe the bad news - even if it's fake news - as opposed to reporting the news."

America Chooses Divided Government -Noonan/Wall Street Journal
"Divided nation, divided outcome. Votes are still being counted, nothing is certain, but it looks as if Joe Biden will win the presidency, closely. The Republicans will hold the Senate, closely, and pick up some seats in the House. A moderate outcome: divided government. Or so it seems. It's all so close. The aftermath could get rocky. It is right and reasonable to request recounts in close races where the legal requirement is met, and it looks as if there may be several of them. This will take time. Fine, get it right, protect the integrity of the system. There's nothing wrong with court challenges in the face of evidence of serious and broad malfeasance. But the emphasis must be on real evidence, not drummed-up drama and trying to throw a spanner into the works because you don't like where things are going. It looks to be a long slog. Will some mess and incompetence be uncovered on state levels? Probably. Will we see some mischief appear to have been done in this city or that county? Probably. As in every election....Democrats were to the left of their own base. Joe Biden was the base's man, and he won. But the party had already been tagged. America in 2020 was not in a progressive mood. From a state-level political professional: 'The fear of the left, packing the court, big tax increases, AOC as the face of the party and the group Biden had to answer to. He didn't have a Sister Souljah moment. Bill Clinton would have.'"

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Nov 6, 2020


11.6.20 - Democratic Left Has Lost America

Gold last traded at $1,951 an ounce. Silver at $25.55 an ounce.

NEWS SUMMARY: Precious metal prices rose to six-week highs Friday on safe-haven buying and a weaker dollar. U.S. stocks traded mixed despite upbeat jobs data as investors looked for clarity on the presidential and congressional election results.

Gold Markets Rally On Weak US Dollar -FX Empire
"Gold markets have rallied significantly during the trading session on Thursday, reaching towards the $1950 level rather early. The FOMC Meeting of course will have a significant influence on what goes on with the US dollar, but quite frankly the Federal Reserve has been telegraphing for a while that it does not have too much left that it can do without fiscal stimulus. Senate leader Mitch McConnell has suggested that perhaps stimulus would be the first priority when Congress got back to work, but the reality is that the stimulus will be much smaller than originally anticipated. Because of this, you may actually make more money buying gold and other currencies than the US dollar. After all, the ECB is likely the flood the markets with liquidity, the Bank of England just increase stimulus, as did the Reserve Bank of Australia...Pullbacks should continue to be thought of as buying opportunities, and eventually I do anticipate that we break through the $2000 handle."

lawyers flock Contested Election: The 2020 Election Has Proven A Target-Rich-Environment For Challenges -Zero Hedge
"It is not surprising that both sides have raised tens of millions of dollars and enlisted hundreds of lawyers for the election challenges based on a 'saturation bombing' legal strategy. The litigation started weeks before the election, and thousands of ballots are being set aside in anticipation for court reviews....It is inevitable with tens of millions of voters across thousands of polls that isolated or systemic problems arise. But this election is different by a high order of magnitude. Mail voting is always a magnet for challenges. In past elections, some mail ballots were not even counted since they would not affect the outcome. Now officials have to process tens of millions of mail ballots in areas that have not dealt with such numbers before. Watch the developments in three basic categories as the election unfolds. The first category of challenges is deadlines. This will constitute the most extensive form of challenges. The 'clocking' of ballots is an effective basis for challenges as the deadlines are set by state law. The results have been mixed thus far...The Supreme Court split evenly on the Pennsylvania extension of the deadline for absentee voting, which left the court orders standing....Another category of challenges is conditions. This rises significantly in the election and includes allegations of voter suppression due to long lines or malfunctioned equipment. This year has seen novel challenges and mixed results in this category....The most worrisome category of challenges is certification. This comes when the votes must be certified by the states for eventual submission to Congress. Many states do not start counting votes until after polls close. That could leave the outcome hanging by both tabulation and litigation, which could be serious in Pennsylvania."

Record $1 billion worth of bitcoin linked to the Silk Road seized by U.S. government -CNBC
"The U.S. government seized an unprecedented $1 billion worth of bitcoin linked to criminal marketplace, the Silk Road. Thousands of bitcoins were taken by law enforcement this week, in what the Justice Department said was the largest seizure of cryptocurrency in the history of the agency. 'Silk Road was the most notorious online criminal marketplace of its day,' U.S. Attorney David Anderson of the Northern District of California said in a civil complaint Thursday. 'The successful prosecution of Silk Road's founder in 2015 left open a billion-dollar question. Where did the money go?' Silk Road allowed people to buy and sell drugs and other illegal goods, and use bitcoin to anonymously fund those transactions. The dark web marketplace was shut down by U.S. federal authorities in 2013 and its founder, Ross Ulbricht, was sentenced to life in prison two years later. Bitcoin prices climbed above $15,000 on Thursday, hitting the highest level since January 2018."

A Pelosi-Schumer Defeat -Editors/Wall Street Journal
"Besides media pollsters, the biggest immediate election losers on Tuesday were Democratic Congressional leaders Nancy Pelosi and Chuck Schumer. Americans diminished Speaker Pelosi's House majority and appear to have kept Republicans in control of the Senate as a brake on the left's agenda. The biggest news is that Mitch McConnell is likely to return as Senate Majority Leader to torment Democratic dreams for two more years. The GOP lost seats in Colorado and Arizona but gained one in Alabama. Republican Senators Joni Ernst in Iowa, Susan Collins in Maine and Steve Daines in Montana prevailed, and Thom Tillis is leading in North Carolina....A GOP Senate would mean the end of the Biden-Bernie Sanders 'unity' agenda. No death to the legislative filibuster, no new U.S. states, no Supreme Court packing, no confiscatory tax increases, no Green New Deal. If Mr. Biden wins and he wants to get something done, he would have to go through Mitch the Knife. Mrs. Pelosi will keep her majority, but much reduced from 232-197. The GOP flipped two seats in South Florida amid a surge of Hispanic turnout and toppled 15-year Rep. Collin Peterson in western Minnesota. Republicans had picked up a net five seats by Wednesday afternoon and could gain as many as 12 or 13....One of Tuesday night's big stories was how Republicans gained ground among minorities. One reason is they made more of an effort at outreach, especially at their August convention. The GOP message of economic opportunity resonated with minority entrepreneurs and workers as Democrats stood for government lockdowns and handouts. And who would have thought that immigrants who fled socialism in Venezuela and violence in Central America would oppose those scourges here? Democrats have refashioned themselves into a party of coastal elites and government unions with a progressive agenda that many middle-class Americans dislike. This includes banishing fossil fuels, abolishing state right-to-work laws and a pointless partisan impeachment....Regardless of whether Joe Biden wins the White House, the Democratic left lost America."

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Nov 5, 2020


11.5.20 - This Is Your Brain on Uncertainty

Gold last traded at $1,946 an ounce. Silver at $25.12 an ounce.

NEWS SUMMARY: Precious metal prices rose sharply Thursday on safe-haven buying, election uncertainty and a weaker dollar. U.S. stocks jumped higher on hopes the winner of the U.S. presidential election would soon be determined.

How Will Gold Prices React To The Elections? -Sieron/OilPrice
"The election results might not be known right away, and there are indications that they might be contested. Who knows what could happen if that's the case? According to some analysts, contested elections should increase the geopolitical uncertainty and boost the safe-haven demand for gold....It is true that recently, gold has been moving in tandem with the stock prices, responding to the stimulus expectations. But, in times of stress and reduced faith in the American institutional system, gold could decouple from equities and behave more like a safe haven asset. No matter whether red or blue, the new government is likely to pump more liquidity into the economy. So, gold could thrive under either Trump or Biden, although we could see increased volatility in the short-term precious metals market. What does all the above mean for the gold market? Well, investors should look past the elections already. They matter less than many people believe....Gold's responses to geopolitical events are relatively short-lived. In the long run, what drives gold prices are the fundamental factors. And the fundamental outlook remains positive for the yellow metal. Both the monetary policy and the fiscal policy are extremely dovish. The public debt is ballooning, while the US dollar is weakening. The real yields remain negative."

gridlock What's to Come After the 2020 Presidential Election -Bonner/Rogue Economics
"Spending fake money on things we shouldn't be doing anyway"¦ including wars, bailouts, boosting stock prices, paying people not to work, and filling The Swamp - will continue"¦ unabated. And the U.S. dollar - the weak link in the whole kinky system - will break. Yes, Dear Reader, it's time to look beyond the election. It's time to think about what will happen to the economy"¦ and to our money. And since our money is mostly in dollars, we depend on the greenback as a panda depends on bamboo shoots. Our savings"¦ our assets"¦ our retirements - all depend on the integrity of the post-1971, faith-based (fake) U.S. dollar....If the pollsters are right this time. Trump will lose. Then, the Biden Team - taking over a country that is already racing towards a calamitous crisis - will step on the gas! That will mean more spending"¦ more money-printing"¦ more dollars"¦ and, inevitably, a fall in the dollar's value. But it hardly matters. We need to look on the bright side"¦ the glass half full"¦ the opportunity in the middle of the crisis....On the 'sell' side, the choice is fairly obvious - we want to 'sell' the U.S. dollar. It is the cornerstone of the whole fantasy finance system"¦ the world's most overrated asset"¦ and the most likely to lose value over the next decade. It has already lost 96% of its value (measured in gold) since it was introduced 49 years ago. Most likely, it will lose the rest of it in the years ahead."

The US dollar will remain weak no matter who wins the presidency -LaMonica/CNN Business
"Tax cuts, a bigger deficit and several interest rate cuts from the Federal Reserve have pushed the greenback lower. But even if Trump loses to Joe Biden, the dollar may not dramatically rebound anytime soon. A Biden administration would likely push for even more stimulus for consumers and small businesses because of the Covid-19 pandemic - especially if Democrats control of the Senate. This spending would likely weaken the dollar a bit further or, at a bare minimum, keep it relatively flat....'A 'blue wave' outcome may be negative for the greenback due to an even bigger stimulus package by Democrats lifting inflationary pressures,' said Lukman Otunuga, senior research analyst at FXTM, in a report Tuesday....But the reality is that more government spending is likely to keep the dollar in the doldrums - no matter what happens with America's foreign policy. Strategists from the BlackRock Investment Institute wrote in a report Monday that they expect 'positive spillovers to global growth from increased fiscal stimulus, more predictable US trade and foreign policy and the prospect of a weaker dollar' if Biden wins....The US Dollar Index, which tracks the dollar versus the euro, British pound, Japanese yen and several other major global currencies, has dropped more than 7% since Trump took office in 2017."

This Is Your Brain on Uncertainty -Newcomb/Morningstar
"I know you want an answer. We all do. It's been a long slog to get this far in 2020, and to sit in ambiguity even a moment longer feels like an impossible task to many of us. We all want some sort of resolution in this year of unrelenting upheaval and unease, but now is not the time to rush to a conclusion or bet the farm on a particular outcome. It is precisely when emotions are running hot that we need to keep our cool....Uncertainty is stressful. In fact, humans have been shown to prefer even physical pain to the stress of uncertainty, but we have to be careful right now to avoid making rash investment decisions that we might soon regret....With doomsday headlines everywhere, whichever way the race comes out, roughly half of the voting population will worry that life as they know it is over. I'm personally concerned about this because, though fear is a powerful political motivator, it doesn't help us manage money well. The real existential threat to your finances is short-term thinking. Decades of research show us that short-term thinking is linked to increased impatience and discounting of future rewards[1], impulsive decisions[2], higher debt[3], lower savings [4], excessive risk-taking [5], and poor health decisions [6]. Fear and uncertainty can make short-term thinkers of the best of us...To maintain your cool as a long-term investor, you simply must find ways to see past the immediate crises. We can do this by turning our attention away from the uncertainty of things we can't control and toward things that are certain and things we can control....If the market does have an extreme reaction to the election, you can turn either outcome into an opportunity. In the case of a market crash, you'll have the chance to buy some great companies when they are at a discount. If there is a large upswing, you can sell some winners that have become overpriced....If your portfolio is undiversified, you're at risk for losses, but not because of politics....Be present with your loved ones. Speak kindly to your neighbors. Take your anxiety out for a walk or a run in nature. Sing. Meditate. Dance. Sleep. Do what it takes to stay balanced in your thinking so that you will be mentally ready to take advantage of the coming opportunities when they make themselves clear. This time of uncertainty and delay will pass. Others will follow."

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Nov 4, 2020


11.4.20 - Gold Price to Race Towards $2300

Gold last traded at $1,895 an ounce. Silver at $23.86 an ounce.

NEWS SUMMARY: Precious metal prices eased back Wednesday amid election uncertainty and a firmer dollar. U.S. stocks rose led by tech shares as investors cheered the growing probability of political gridlock.

Gold to race higher towards $2300 -Credit Suisse/FX Street
"Strategists at Credit Suisse remain long-term gold bulls and a potential bullish 'wedge' continuation pattern looks to be forming to add weight to this view. 'Gold extends its consolidation from our $2075 target hit in August and we maintain our core view this is a temporary and corrective pause in the broader uptrend. Indeed, price action is beginning to increasingly look like a bullish 'wedge' continuation pattern, adding weight to our view.'....'Above $1933 would now suggest the 'wedge' has been completed for strength back to $2016, then the $2075 high. Big picture, we continue to look for $2300.'"

biden harris commercial Harris, in Video, Starts Showing Marxist Streak -Stoll/New York Post
"Vice presidential candidates, like doctors in the Hippocratic Oath, are supposed to "do no harm." Joe Biden's running mate, Kamala Harris, risks violating that traditional rule with an animated video narrated in her voice that she posted Sunday on social media. 'There's a big difference between equality and equity,' she says in the video. Equality, she suggests, is problematic. 'Equality suggests, oh, everyone should get the same amount. The problem with that, not everybody's starting out from the same place. So if we're all getting the same amount, but you started out back there and I started out over here, we could get the same amount, but you're still going to be that far back behind me,' she says. A better alternative, she suggests, is equity. 'It's about giving people the resources and the support they need, so that everyone can be on equal footing and then compete on equal footing. Equitable treatment means we all end up at the same place.' The video was met with vehement reactions. 'Sounds just like Karl Marx. A century of history has shown where that path leads. We all embrace equal opportunity, but government-enforced equality of outcomes is Marxism,' replied a Republican member of Congress from Wyoming, Liz Cheney....The opinion editor of the Daily Telegraph, James Morrow, quipped: 'Equitable treatment means we all end up at the same place,' says Kamala Harris, not understanding that that same place always winds up being a gulag or a bread line.' The animated video could be a calculated move by the Biden campaign to try to whip up enthusiasm from Bernie Sanders-supporting or Elizabeth Warren-supporting far-left voters who are at risk of staying home and costing the Biden-Harris ticket the election....For voters, the Harris video provides a reminder that the election is a contest about not only the particulars of Covid-response policies or international relations but philosophies. The Harris cartoon view of the world doesn't allow for people ending up in different places because some people work harder or have more natural ability or better or worse luck or make different choices. It suggests that all different outcomes are the result of inequalities of resources, which should be eradicated, so that we can all end up in the same place. We do have plenty further to go in America to improve equality of opportunity. Clumsily depicting a vision in which 'we all end up in the same place,' as the Harris-narrated video does, is counterproductive. It will only slow progress."

Donald Trump wins on the economy -Moore/The Hill
"Is this the single greatest and fastest comeback from a recession in our history? A strong case could be made that it is with the recent news that national economic output soared to the highest rate in more than seven decades. The 33 percent increase in gross domestic product was twice the last record set back in 1950 when Harry Truman was president and economic growth was almost 17 percent at the time. No one expected anything like this. The Federal Reserve had predicted growth of about half of this rate. Most Wall Street economic forecasters predicted less than 20 percent growth. The same occurred with jobs as we have now lowered unemployment to below 8 percent in September....Overshadowed by such blockbuster economic growth was the report on unemployment claims, as we have moved more than 15 million Americans off of such benefits in just six months. That has never happened before in our history....One reason the recovery is so strong is the health of the economy before the pandemic at the start of 2020. We had the lowest unemployment rate in 50 years, over 6 million unfilled jobs, and the highest income levels with median households in our history, while poverty for all races, genders, and ethnicities fell to record lows....Biden argued that the United States has dealt more ineffectively with the coronavirus under Trump than any other country. I will not defend the actions Trump has taken to contain the pandemic, but European death rates are climbing again. Moreover, our recovery is ahead of most European and Asian countries...I cannot imagine changing horses now. I believe in the end the voters will agree."

Stagflation will challenge the president in 2021 -Morici/Marketwatch
"Whoever wins in November, the White House and Federal Reserve will face another tough year in 2021...After contracting at an annual pace of 31.4% in the second quarter, GDP increased 33.1% in the third quarter. However, the stimulus has mostly run its course, and the pace of recovery is slowing. Record numbers of small businesses, temporarily shuttered, are now permanently closing, and many bricks-and-mortar retailers are in chapter 11 bankruptcy. Venerable corporate names are permanently cutting staff in petroleum, media, airlines, banking, insurance, automobiles and elsewhere. This winter, even with a vaccine rolling out, the economy will be smaller than it would have been without the pandemic, and 4 million or 5 million Americans will be added to the rolls of the permanently unemployed....The Fed is not only out of bullets but, like Dr. Jekyll, has created its own Mr. Hyde. We face stagflation - the paradox of high unemployment and inflation. During June, July and August, the CPI rose at a 6.3% annual pace as compared with the prices the prior three months....We will soon have run the string on lower oil and gas prices and productivity gains and imports keeping down costs for most durable goods, save autos, and consumer items such as apparel. Many durable goods are in short supply. Inflation for goods, less food and energy, continued brisk in September and has been running 8.6% since June. Shortages will persist into and through 2021. This winter, as vaccines become widely available, in some sectors - such as airlines - and places - such as restaurants in large cities - workers that have been displaced will remain unemployed, but elsewhere demand will surge, creating continuing shortages of capacity and inflation."

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Nov 3, 2020


11.3.20 - Trump or Biden: Gold Wins Either Way

Gold last traded at $1,905 an ounce. Silver at $24.10 an ounce.

NEWS SUMMARY: Precious metal prices rose Tuesday on safe-haven buying and a sharply weaker dollar. U.S. stocks rallied as investors hoped a clear winner would emerge from the U.S. presidential election.

Gold Price Predictions If Biden Or Trump Wins Presidency -Akhtar/Yahoo Finance
"The U.S. presidential election will play a huge role in shaping the global economy and gold prices are expected to react in the run up to the election day. So how important is it for the safe haven asset gold if Biden or Trump makes it to the White House? 'There is no doubt that we are likely to see increased volatility in stock markets in the run up to the election day and investors seeking traditional safe havens such as gold, particularly if the race between the two candidates gets very close and there is a growing risk of a contested outcome,' writes Saida Litosh, manager of precious metals analysis at Refinitiv....'Historically gold price movements in the aftermath of previous U.S. presidential elections suggests little evidence of a clear relationship between the gold price and the election outcome based on party affiliation,' says Litosh. Fosterville South Exploration CEO Bryan Slusarchuk says, for thousands of years, gold has acted as a hedge against uncertainty, a currency and a store of wealth. Both Trump and Biden have promised huge amounts of stimulus and huge amounts of easing.'Both [Trump and Biden] have been vocally supportive of various policies that amount to quantitative easing and therefore gold ought to react well no matter who is elected,' says Slusarchuk. Stepping beyond financial conditions, which will serve to propel gold higher, we need to consider gold's function as a hedge against uncertainty, says Slusarchuk....'I believe gold has explosive upside in the coming months and this is predicated on economic and financial conditions, but the uncertainty of the election outcome will only serve to accelerate its upward trajectory,' adds Slusarchuk."

vote today Don't trust banking behemoths' 2020 election predictions -Gasparino/New York Post
"With Joe Biden up in the polls, pre-election positions should be easy. Load up the truck on shares of any company that can benefit from his embrace of the Green New Deal, like solar-panel companies. Sell Treasuries because Biden's spending plan looks like President Trump's - only on steroids....And yet look closely, and solar-company stocks have risen over the past year but they aren't shooting to the moon. Yields on Treasury bonds aren't spiking wildly. And the stock market appears to be in a panic. There are a couple of reasons for this. Some traders say investors are finally pricing in all those new taxes Biden is planning, or that Biden's poll numbers in battleground states are shakier than the consensus indicates. Or maybe Trump will come close enough to contest the election, sending stocks into a tizzy of uncertainty for weeks after Election Day. The confusion of the smart-money crowd tells us something about Wall Street. The geniuses who run the big banks and financial firms and too often dominate economic commentary have never been that smart, and probably shouldn't be trusted to either predict the election or how good (or bad) things will get whoever is elected....The other reason to always suspect Wall Street wisdom is its lousy track record. Moody's Corp. recently made some news predicting that a Biden victory would be great for the economy...When was the last time Moody's gave investors fair warning to any major financial event? The 2008 banking crisis? Nope. The dot-com bubble bursting in 2000? Nope....The point is when you see left-leaning TV pundits praising Moody's for its Biden analysis, remember it's mostly devoid of context."

JPMorgan Says Economic Disaster And More Lockdowns Will Be Great For Stocks -Zero Hedge
"According to One River's Eric Peters...ever since the arrival of MMT in March, the simple reality is that for stocks it no longer matters who is president, to wit: 'When stocks bottomed on March 23rd, Trump narrowly led Biden in betting markets. But pandemics have consequences and this catastrophe hit a nation that had spent decades optimizing its economy to spur asset price appreciation. America's financial system was as overleveraged as it was unstable. A depression was inevitable in the absence of something utterly unprecedented. On March 27th Trump signed the $2.2trln CARES Act, and this, combined with a breathtaking array of asset purchase programs marked the effective start of MMT (Modern Monetary Theory) - with the Fed and Treasury coordinating policy. And ever since, it has mattered less who wins this election. Because you see, once the link is broken between what the government must collect and what it can spend, who leads the nation is less consequential - at least to stock markets in the near-term.'....The more dysfunctional the presidency, and Congress, the more the Fed has to take matters into its own hands. In fact, it is this very logic that has allowed stocks to soar to all time highs even as the economy barely grew for the past decade and then cratered into the steepest contraction on record. And for once, we had an honest, objective assessment from none other than JPMorgan, which in its latest Flows and Liquidity note published on Friday cuts to the chase and without any of the now ridiculous 'narratives' writes that 'The equity bull market should resume post US election.' Why? For two simple reasons: i) a surge in debt which will boost stocks as it has for the past century, and ii) if it's bad the Fed will step in. In fact, the worse it gets the better it will be for stocks, and in a moment of brutal honesty from the largest US commercial bank, JPMorgan's Nick Panigirtzoglo...'the reemergence of lockdowns and resultant growth weakness could bolster the above equity upside over the medium to longer term via inducing more QE and thus more liquidity creation.'"

Trump Has Torn the Mask Off the Liberal Media -Pavone/Wall Street Journal
"Why does the media hate Donald Trump so much? There are all kinds of theories, but only one really makes sense: We are a country at odds over the most fundamental principles of ideology, economics, religion, race, culture, morality - even our own history. The media is on one side of that metaphorical war, and President Trump calls it out. In this dispute the two sides have always been known to the participants, but the media doesn't identify them publicly.....The media is supposed to be a neutral participant. So, to a lesser extent, are Hollywood and academia. Hollywood's job is to entertain us. The universities' job is to educate us. The media's job is to report the news to us. If people knew for a fact that the media were taking sides, the jig would be up. The media would lose much of its ability to influence the outcome. This is what lies behind the media's fear and loathing of the president. It wants desperately to advance an agenda, but knows that to do so effectively it needs to be perceived as impartial. In other words, the media cares nothing about reality - only the perception of reality....In a real sense, the president has defeated the media. No matter what the outcome of this election, the media will never again be able to convince the public that it is objective. Everyone-not only conservatives-now knows where it stands. That is the real reason the media hates Trump with a blazing, white-hot intensity."

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Nov 2, 2020


11.2.20 - Pollster Predicts Trump Will Win

Gold last traded at $1,893 an ounce. Silver at $23.98 an ounce.

NEWS SUMMARY: Precious metal prices rose Monday on safe-haven buying ahead of U.S. elections. U.S. stocks attempted to rebound from the worst month since March amid rising election and pandemic uncertainty.

Gold rises as dollar rally stalls, virus cases mount -CNBC
"Gold jumped more than 1% on Friday as the dollar slipped from a one-month peak, while worries over rising COVID-19 cases and uncertainty surrounding next week's U.S. presidential election offered support to the safe-haven metal....'Gold rebounded as the dollar partially reversed its surprising two-day rally,' said Tai Wong, head of base and precious metals derivatives trading at BMO. 'Investors are finding the bottom of the recent range a good level at which to add to gold holdings ahead of the hotly contested election next week, which seems likely to return a one-party government that means much bigger and faster stimulus.'....'There's a lot of structural pieces in place for gold to continue to rise after the election, regardless of the outcome,' said Kevin Rich, Global Gold Market Advisor for The Perth Mint. 'Based on the amount of fiscal stimulus that is gone in from here in the United States and globally ... (and) the enormous amount of government debt taken on ... that's going to put a lot of currencies under pressure, including the U.S. dollar.' Gold, which has risen 24% so far this year, tends to benefit from widespread stimulus measures from central banks because it is widely viewed as a hedge against inflation and currency debasement. Concerns about a surge in coronavirus cases in the United States and in Europe dented investors' appetite for riskier assets."

the fed Does Anyone Trust the Fed? -Hogan/AIER
"In August, the Federal Reserve introduced its new monetary policy strategy of Average Inflation Targeting. This measure was expected to increase price inflation in the short run by raising the public's expectations of higher prices in the future. Based on evidence from financial markets and even from the Fed's own forecasts, it does not appear to have done so. The reason the new policy has failed is that no one seems to trust the Fed to achieve its policy goals....One problem with this strategy is that it will only be effective if the Fed is credible in its commitment to the new policy and, hence, to future inflation. Here the Fed faces a paradox of trust. The policy of Average Inflation Targeting only matters if inflation has been persistently above or below the target rate. But if inflation has persistently missed the target rate in the past, the public might not trust the Fed to achieve its new target rate in the future. If the Fed has consistently undershot its old target, why would anyone trust it to hit the new one?....If the Fed's new policy of Average Inflation Targeting were effective, we should see an increase in inflation expectations around the time of its announcement in late August. But inflation expectations have not increased since the announcement. If anything, they have fallen. This evidence indicates that investors do not trust the Fed to achieve above-target rates of inflation in the future....Powell's comment that the Fed is not 'out of ammo' was intended to reassure the public that the Fed will do whatever it takes to achieve its monetary policy goals. Unfortunately, the Fed's actions do not support that sentiment. Until the Fed acts to build trust and credibility with the public, its policy of Average Inflation Targeting will have little effect on inflation or economic activity."

The Dollar Disease Well Predates the Coronavirus -Snyder/Real Clear Markets
"A shocking disease about which we know very little even though it has been running rampant for seemingly a long time already. Not COVID. As sad as it may be, there's more documented about SARS-cov-2 than the timid investigations into how the global monetary system really functions. In less than a year, we've come to know quite a lot about how the coronavirus gets transmitted, yet know shockingly little about how dollars are transmitted globally. Or that they aren't really dollars at all. First, however, gigantic GDP positive during Q3 for the United States. So far as real GDP might be concerned, this thing's over - hooray!! - back to even again after just two quarters when most models from the start showed it would take until the end of next year at the earliest. Reaction to this, however, has been muted. For one, it's been expected for several months; estimates were continuously raised throughout Q3 so that we knew what the number was going to look like well before this week. It's the one for Q4, and then those for 2021, which contain all the mystery and gravity....The real danger, therefore, is that businesses use their 'stimulus' receipts to have done and keep doing other things than hire back, or pay more to, their workers. That's just what they're not doing right now. Without a natural rebound in the private economy, there's no point in hiring back workers since there's no work for them to do....The domestic financial system operates in huge part by its relationship with a global dollar system no one knows much about. That seems kind of important, don't you think? For one thing, it raises questions about why US banks would be so heavily financed by this offshore eurodollar (the word 'eurodollar' only appears three times in this 81-page report; as if it is to be carefully avoided)....Why does the US financial sector lean so heavily on the offshore market? Because that's where the dollars are! The offshore dollar system is far, far larger, more complex, and more aligned with how a bank-centered system would evolve....For a time, Jay's flood fairy tale was fun while it seemed like there was a genuine rebound, but even in the aftermath of a plus-thirty GDP it leaves us with too many unknowns in all the wrong places....No need to figure that out when COVID's around to easily blame (like subprime mortgages). The real disease is the same something else."

The Pollster Who Thinks Trump Will Win -Swaim/Wall Street Journal
"Joe Biden leads Donald Trump by an average of 7 or 8 points in national surveys, more narrowly in battleground states. Everybody remembers the shock of 2016, but can the polls be wrong again? Ask the question in a different way: Are poll respondents telling the truth? Robert Cahaly, head of the Trafalgar Group, thinks a lot of people aren't. Trafalgar polls accurately foresaw the outcome in 2016, calling Florida, Pennsylvania and Michigan for Mr. Trump. In 2020 the Atlanta-based consulting firm has generally shown Mr. Trump to be in a stronger position than the conventional wisdom would suggest....Do people lie to pollsters? 'Yes,' Mr. Cahaly says, 'but they're not necessarily doing anything wrong. If a grandmother says, 'This is my grandson, isn't he a handsome boy?' and you can see he's anything but handsome - he's sickly and weird-looking - you don't say, 'No, he's sickly and weird-looking.' You just say, 'He sure is.' Social desirability bias is more pronounced among some demographics, Mr. Cahaly thinks, and he claims only that Trafalgar polls minimize it. 'You can't get rid of it,' he admits. To oversimplify his approach: If a poll respondent tells you he's voting for Candidate A, but that same person answers every other question in a way that suggests he's voting for Candidate B, the pollster may wish to account for that oddity in the overall tally....'For me it's not a left-right thing,' he says. 'I run a business. It's not in my interest to pump up a Republican candidate just for the sake of it. I need to get it right.'"

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Oct 30, 2020


10.30.20 - Will the "Silent Majority" Stop The Left?

Gold last traded at $1,878 an ounce. Silver at $23.62 an ounce.

NEWS SUMMARY: Precious metal prices rose on safe-haven buying and a weaker dollar. U.S. stocks fell as major indexes headed for the worst week since March; amid downbeat earnings, failed stimulus talks and rising CV-19 worries.

The Real Reasons Gold Dropped On Wednesday And Why You Shouldn't Worry -Constable/Forbes
"Gold prices took a significant tumble Wednesday. But that doesn't mean that long-term gold investors should turn bearish...But here's what's really happening, and it is nothing to do with investors souring on gold as a long-term strategic asset. First, stocks dived Wednesday on the back of the news that infections of the COVID-19 virus have ballooned...At the same time as investors were dumping stocks they were fleeing to the perceived safety of U.S. Treasury bonds. But here's the key - the value of the dollar and the price of gold tend to move inversely. In other words, when the dollar rallies, gold tends to fall. A simultaneous stronger dollar and weaker gold prices shouldn't surprise anyone. There's a further reason for gold to have dropped to precipitously. Many investors buy stocks using borrowed money known as margin. When the stock price declines by a significant percentage, then the investors often need to provide their stockbrokers with more cash as collateral on the borrowing. So what do some of these cash-strapped investors do? They sell some of their gold to get the cash needed to send to the stockbroker....So in many ways, investors should expect gold prices to take a tumble when the stock market dips...this drop could be a buying opportunity."

Trump2020 Will A Non-Political "Silent Majority" Stop The Left? -Bishop/Zero Hedge
"The 2020 campaign is down to its final week, with each party and pundit preparing the ammo they need to either take a victory lap or explain away their defeat. In the age of covid, the Democratic Party has pushed heavily a vote-by-mail campaign that places their successes in the hands of the ability of voters to successfully negotiate the postal system, while Trump's team is relying on MAGA rallies to motivate in-person early voting. The combination of the two has the race projected to be the largest projected voter turnout in over a century. According to conventional wisdom, this is a major win for Joe Biden's team...But is conventional wisdom correct? If we do in fact see a major surge of voter behavior, it's useful to consider the sort of voter who may be turning out to cast a vote for the first time. Both sides have their own preferred narrative here: Democrats see a nation of politically oppressed groups that can be activated by tapping into their sense of injustice, while Republicans see a 'silent majority' that wants 'LAW AND ORDER!' Historically, the demonstrated preference of American voters has firmly been political apathy....If polling trends are accurate, we've already seen President Trump greatly enhance his position with minority voters, whose communities tend to be the most hostile to the Left's fetish for political correctness....Perhaps real populism in America is simply letting people raise a family and grill in peace? If so, maybe Murray Rothbard was right about the potential for a uniquely libertarian brand of populism in America. One thing is for sure if this theory holds: political pundits in New York and Washington, DC will find themselves looking foolish in 2020. Again."

If You're Invested in the Stock Market, You Need to See This Chart -Dyson/Rogue Economics
"The Dow-to-Gold ratio shows us the relationship between the stock market and gold. The first thing the ratio tells us - looking back 120 years - is there is a clear cycle in this relationship. At times, stocks get cheap compared to gold. You can buy the Dow with only a few ounces of gold. This was the case in 1896, 1932, and 1980. Other times, gold gets very cheap relative to stocks. It takes many ounces of gold to buy the Dow. 1929, 1966, and 1999 are examples of this. The ratio seems to cycle between these extremes every decade or two. Take a look at this chart... The second thing to notice is that extremes in the Dow-to-Gold ratio tend to mark important tops and bottoms in the stock market. At important bull market tops - like 1999 - it takes many ounces of gold to buy the Dow. At important bear market bottoms - like 1980 - it takes only a few ounces of gold to buy the Dow. This makes sense. In bull markets, people don't want the safety and protection of gold. In bear markets, people flee from stocks and treat gold as a safe haven. We can say, therefore, that the Dow-to-Gold ratio is a good indicator of the primary trend in the stock market. Based on my reading of this chart, the stock market entered a bear market in 1999"¦ And it will remain in a bear market until the Dow can be bought with only a few ounces of gold. My guess is that will occur at some point in the next 10 years. Today, one share of the Dow will buy only 14.5 ounces of gold. That's down from 42 ounces back in August 1999. In other words, since 1999, the Dow has lost 65% of its value in terms of real money - gold. Talk about a silent and insidious bear market....The Dow-to-Gold ratio will return to low single digits (below 5) anyway"¦ And the government policy of 'do whatever it takes to avoid recessions and bear markets' will have been completely discredited."

More Evidence Joe Biden Has Spent His Entire Working Career In Government -Puzder/Real Clear Markets
"In the presidential debate last Thursday, moderator Kristen Welker asked former Vice-President Joe Biden if it was the 'right time' to ask 'struggling small businesses' to raise the minimum wage to $15 an hour. It was a good question and each of the candidates' responses said a lot about how they view government's role in our economy...Biden told Welker that he was in favor of increasing the federal minimum wage to $15 but that 'the government is going to have help small businesses by bailing them out.' So, Biden would add to the problems small businesses are facing during the pandemic by increasing their labor costs and then provide government dollars to solve that problem, assuming he could reach agreement on a bailout package with a dysfunctional Congress. It apparently didn't occur to Biden that the government could simply avoid the problem by not creating it in first place. Perhaps that was understandable given that Biden has spent his entire professional career in government. As someone who spent his entire career in business, President Trump understandably seemed surprised by Biden's response. He asked Biden 'how are you helping your small businesses when you're forcing wages? What's going to happen and what's been proven to happen is when you do that these small businesses fire many of their employees.' Well, of course they do. In 2019, even before small businesses were closing due to the pandemic's economic shutdowns, the nonpartisan Congressional Budget Office estimated that a $15 minimum wage would result in 1.3 million fewer workers being employed. The CBO also forecast that a $15 minimum wage would reduce business income, increase consumer prices, and slow the economy....Biden has spent his entire working life in government which, unlike private sector businesses, does not have make a profit to survive. It can simply use taxpayer dollars to cover overspending and errors in judgment....In that respect, the minimum wage debate highlighted the fact that only one person on the debate stage had ever run a business, created a job or signed the front side of a paycheck, and it clearly was not the former vice-president."

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Oct 29, 2020


10.29.20 - 11 Trillion Reasons To Fear Biden

Gold last traded at $1,869 an ounce. Silver at $23.32 an ounce.

NEWS SUMMARY: Precious metal prices traded mixed Thursday as upbeat GDP data boosted the dollar. U.S. stocks attempted to recover from a massive sell-off ahead of major tech quarterly earnings reports.

Inflation is coming, preserve your wealth with gold -Polleit/Kitco
"Consumer prices may be showing muted inflation pressures as the world continues to feels the effects of the COVID-19 pandemic but a major inflation threat is looming on the horizon according to one chief economist. In a telephone interview with Kitco News, Thorsten Polleit, chief economist at Degussa, said that instead of focusing on consumer inflation, investors need to pay more attention to the growing money supply as this is what is going to general higher inflation for years to come. Polleit's comments come as governments and central banks around the world continue to flood capital into financial markets to support the beleaguer global economy....'People continue to ask: 'Where is the inflation,' he said. 'But you just have to look at equity markets, real estate and bond prices. At the moment inflation is impacting asset markets. But the increase in the quantity of money that has been printed in the U.S. as well in the Euro area inflation will sooner or later also push up consumer prices.'....Polleit said that there are two major issues the global economy has to deal with when it comes to all the money that has been printed by governments and central bank. The first issues is currency debasement and the loss of purchasing power....The second significant issues being created is the growing disparity between the rich and the poor. Investors with diverse portfolios are seeing their wealth grow as inflation drives financial markets higher; meanwhile consumers who don't have investment accounts see more hardships as their dollars by fewer and fewer goods. 'Inflation benefits some at the expense of others,' he said. 'As the quantity of money rises, it has various effects, but eventually it will make the great majority of people poorer.'....Polleit added that when it comes to creating a currency that preserve's its purchasing power, gold is the best asset. He noted that it has a 1000 years of history as a store of value."

bear market Stock market has put in a top and an 'enormous' bubble has already burst -Einhorn/MarketWatch
"The top is in for the U.S. stock market after an 'enormous' bubble in technology stocks popped last month, Greenlight Capital founder David Einhorn warned in a letter dated Oct. 27 to investors. Bubbles tend to topple under their own weight as all investors finally hop in, short sellers cover, and the 'last buyer has bought (or bought massive amounts of weekly calls),' he wrote. 'The decline starts and the psychology shifts from greed to complacency to worry to panic,' Einhorn said. Einhorn pointed to 10 signs that backed up his bubble call. These include...1) An IPO mania; 2) Extraordinary valuations and new metrics for valuations; 3) Huge market concentration in a single sector and a few stocks; 4) A second tier of stocks that most people haven't heard of at S&P 500-type market capitalizations; 5) The more fanciful and distant the narrative, it seems the better the stock performs; 6) Outperformance of companies suspected of fraud based on the consensus belief that there is no enforcement risk, without which crime pays; 7) Outsized reaction to economically irrelevant stock splits; 8) Increased participation of retail investors, who appear focused on the best-performing names; 9) Incredible trading volumes in speculative instruments like weekly call options and worthless common stock; and 10) A parabolic ascent toward a top. Einhorn said that if the call is correct, investor sentiment is shifting from greed to complacency."

Coping With the Covid Winter -Editors/Wall Street Journal
"Virus cases are increasing, but this is inevitable as cooler weather arrives and Americans go indoors. Cases have also been climbing across Europe, in some countries more than in the U.S. But the good news is that America is better prepared to handle another virus surge, and progress toward a vaccine continues....The increase has been most acute in upper Midwest states that weren't hit as hard earlier. Some of the increase is due to more testing, which is detecting more asymptomatic cases. Most concerning are hospitalizations, which are up by about 40% since mid-September though are still 30% or so below spring and summer peaks. Most hospitals have ample capacity to treat virus patients while continuing elective procedures, which were stopped during the spring....Death rates have also fallen tremendously as treatments have improved. This includes therapeutics like Gilead's antiviral remdesivir and Regeneron's antibody cocktail, but also medical protocols such as prone positioning, low-flow oxygenation in lieu of invasive ventilation, and anticoagulants to treat blood clots. A new study by the NYU Langone hospital system reports its mortality rate declined by 70% from March to August after accounting for age, health risks, admission vital signs and other factors. Deaths have also trended lower because the public is doing a better job of shielding the elderly and those at high-risk....This is why the epidemiologists who wrote the Great Barrington Declaration, which has been signed by tens of thousands of doctors and scientists, advise a focus on protecting the elderly. They also warn that government lockdowns lead to worsening heart-disease outcomes, fewer cancer screenings and more mental illness. Nearly a third of the so-called excess deaths in the U.S. this year have been attributed to causes other than Covid, including cardiovascular disease and uncontrolled diabetes....If Mr. Biden is elected, he'll benefit from vaccines developed thanks to drug-company innovation and the Trump Administration effort to streamline the bureaucracy. Expect his winter to become less dark soon after Jan. 20."

11 Trillion Reasons To Fear Joe Biden's Presidency -Gillespie/Reason
"The former vice president's vision of an all-powerful government goes far beyond massive spending and tax hikes. By my calculation, there are at the very least 11 trillion reasons to worry about Democratic presidential contender Joe Biden...Not only is the former vice president likely to win, but FiveThirtyEight predicts Democrats have a 74-in-100 chance of taking the Senate while holding the House of Representatives, meaning that he will have a great opportunity to deliver on all of his campaign promises, which add up to a mind-blowing total of $11 trillion in new federal spending over the coming decade. His 'platform is more liberal than that of every past Democratic nominee,' writes The Washington Post. That's bad news not just for the economy but for a wide range of libertarian concerns about things such as individual autonomy, free speech, school choice, and gun rights. In last week's debate with Trump, Biden warned that we are entering a 'dark winter.' He was talking about rising COVID-19 cases, but his own platform is likely to keep us at home, out of work, and in a bad place for a long time to come. Biden's expansive vision is about more than vastly increasing spending, but let's start there because the numbers are simply staggering. He's proposing $11 trillion in brand new spending over the next decade, according to the Manhattan Institute's Brian Riedl. Big-ticket new items include $1.4 trillion to expand Obamacare; $2 trillion on his version of a Green New Deal; jacking Social Security and Supplemental Security Income by $1 trillion; and goosing spending on preschool, K-12, and higher education by $1.5 trillion. Biden has also signed on to a $3.3 trillion stimulus spending plan pushed by House and Senate Democrats. All of this new spending would be layered on top of an existing annual federal budget that has swelled to nearly $7 trillion in fiscal year 2020....Joe Biden has been in national politics for some 47 years, almost 10 years more than most of us are old. Because of various scandals (he dropped out of the 1988 presidential race after it came out that he'd plagiarized details of his own biography from a British politician!) and gaffes (in 2008, he asked a wheelchair-bound supporter to 'stand up"¦and let 'em see you'), he was a late-night punchline for much of his half-century in the public eye."

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Oct 28, 2020


10.28.20 - Are the Political Polls Wrong Again?

Gold last traded at $1,879 an ounce. Silver at $23.39 an ounce.

NEWS SUMMARY: Precious metal prices fell Wednesday as worried investors, scrambling for liquidity, boosted the dollar. U.S. stocks cratered as investors worried that rising coronavirus infections might impact the U.S. and global economic recovery.

Gold: Ready To Rumble -Seeking Alpha
"Gold represents today a major economic indicator in several ways: as a commodity, as a safe haven, and since March as a currency...In March, the Fed announced that there were no limits to quantitative easing or to the stimulus, which then led to the stock market rallying to record levels....The Fed appears willing to use 10% of GDP or $20 trillion in the form of stimulus, of which they have only used a small portion of that percentage as yet. A key question is who is going to pay for all of this printing of money that is going on. Basically, our children's future is being jeopardized by printing so much money and taking on such high debt levels for the future. Whoever wins the election next week, they will have to deal with this increasing level of debt, which is reaching crisis levels. The debt levels will cause tremendous volatility, especially for the US dollar. It will further erode the US dollar as the world's reserve currency, which has been in decline for decades. Infections continue to rise rapidly. The end of the pandemic appears to be ever farther in the future...Many people and families are in dire straits. Hyperinflation may occur and the US has never experienced such a thing. The key is to understand that the economic system is under severe stress and you have to find ways to survive. One way is to use a trading system to protect and build wealth in gold....You can use this volatile time to make tremendous returns trading precious metals, which are the other side of the US dollar. As the US declines, gold should rise. It is a golden opportunity."

bidentrump Are the polls wrong again? -Detrick/LPL Research
"The race for the White House is down to the homestretch, and although presidential candidate Joe Biden is comfortably ahead in the election polls, various market and economic-based indicators suggest the election may be much closer than many are expecting. The majority of Washington insiders we track think Biden has at least a 60% chance of winning this election, with many thinking the odds are much higher. However, there's a good chance things could be much closer, and here's why. (1) Gross domestic product (GDP) is set for a huge surge in the third quarter, with the Atlanta Federal Reserve GDPNow estimating a jump of 35.3% when the number is released October 29. That would be the largest quarter-over-quarter increase ever and would bring the average for the previous two quarters to a respectable 2.1%....(2) Stocks are strong. Historically, the stock market is a great predictor of who will be in the White House. In fact, in 20 of the past 23 elections (87%), the S&P 500 Index has accurately predicted who would win....(3) Incomes are rising. It also turns out that if people are making more money, they tend to reelect presidents....(4) The US dollar is weak. A weaker US dollar before the election historically has signaled an incumbent party victory....Ultimately, we the people determine which signals are right this time around, so get out there and vote!"

Stocks Can No Longer Pretend 2020 Will Be A One-Off -Zero Hedge
"Monday's global equity losses were a preview of the coming months rather than just a case of pre-election jitters. Investors are finally realizing that the coronavirus is a 2021 story too. After the initial weeks of fear, it was easy for many wealthy people to dismiss the pandemic as an overblown threat. There have been fewer than two Covid-19 fatalities for every 10,000 people on the planet, meaning it's unlikely any random individual knows someone personally who has died from the disease. The majority of those who contract the virus experience relatively mild symptoms or even none at all. On top of that, the financial elite saw their savings and investments bolstered by extraordinary stimulus packages and were most likely to be be able to easily transition to a remote-working lifestyle, supported by their employer. And then there's been the constant promises of a vaccine being ready by year end. All this combined to mean that unless they experienced the trauma of personal loss, the most accessible narrative was that the pandemic was a one-off shock to earnings that would soon be recovered as life normalized again. But the world isn't going to 'normalize' any time soon. Quite the opposite. As of Sunday, the seven-day average daily case count was 432,475 - up from 356,343 a week earlier....There will be winners and losers from the rotation to a new type of economy but the transition will overall result in a massive real net cost on society and for many individuals. Many established businesses will go bankrupt and millions of jobs will be lost, destroying the consumer base. But there's a bigger problem for optimistically priced stocks. Everyone has been hyping up the arrival of the vaccine on the assumption that it will be a game-changer. But vaccinating a sufficiently large part of the global population to resume 'normal' activities will be a long, drawn-out process - spanning many months or even years - rather than an event. Especially as many people appear reluctant to be early in the vaccine queue. The K-shaped recovery has helped the fortunate remain relatively insulated from the pandemic but the financial bubble is set to burst. And none of this even hinges on the complacent pricing around the U.S. election risks."

Saving Private Biden -McGurn/Wall Street Journal
"In the thick of the 2016 presidential campaign, the front page of the New York Times handed down the word from on high: In the era of Donald Trump, press objectivity was a luxury America could not afford. It turned out that biased press coverage wasn't enough to keep Mr. Trump from winning. So for 2020 the press introduced a new corollary: Joe Biden must never be asked a tough question. In the past the media's competitive juices, plus a presidential candidate's interactions with the American people along the campaign trail, would have rendered this impossible. But Covid-19 gave Mr. Biden the excuse to stay in his basement, and the press corps has run interference for Mr. Biden rather than tackle the story. At the moment, the hard questions Mr. Biden is avoiding are about the lucrative deals his son made with politically connected Chinese and Ukrainian businesses, sometimes while riding alongside his father in Air Force 2....The rationale appears to be that Mr. Biden can't handle the questions and the American people can't be trusted to handle the answers. This see-no-evil, hear-no-evil, speak-no-evil approach to Mr. Biden started with Tara Reade, a former Senate staffer who accused the candidate of having sexually harassed her in 1993, when she'd worked for him....It's the job of the press to ask the hard questions and insist on answers, even at the risk of looking obnoxious. It isn't biased, for example, to ask President Trump why, with polls showing more than half of the American people saying they are better off today than before he was elected, so many will still vote against him because they don't like his personality and temperament....The best summary of the new standard in election coverage was given by Mark Hemingway of RealClearInvestigations. After a particularly fawning news conference, he relayed the assessment of a friend: Watching the press handle Joe Biden is 'like watching someone make sure a 3-year old wins Candyland.'"

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Oct 27, 2020


10.27.20 - Raising taxes will hurt the economy

Gold last traded at $1,908 an ounce. Silver at $24.45 an ounce.

NEWS SUMMARY: Precious metal prices rose Tuesday amid falling consumer confidence and a weaker dollar. U.S. stocks fell for a second day on rising Covid-19 cases and lawmakers' inability to agree on a new fiscal stimulus plan.

Gold is a risk-on commodity -Coghlan/Forex Live
"This post is to point out a relationship with gold and the dollar that a number of people have contacted me about over the last few months. It sometimes pays to spell out the obvious as the obvious is well, not always as obvious as we might think. Gold is an anti-dollar commodity....A rising dollar weakens gold and a falling dollar strengthens gold. Now during the COVID-19 crisis the USD has been operating like a safe haven currency and gaining strength during risk off sessions....Gold is a risk on asset right now. Stimulus, reflation, vaccine optimism all will help gold to the upside. So, consider gold as a 'risk-on commodity'. In expectations of good times expect gold gains."

taxes Raising taxes will hurt the economy -York/The Hill
"The idea that the agenda of Joe Biden would be positive for the economy is taken to mean that his plan to increase taxes would also be positive for the economy. However, it is a mistake to think the corporate or individual income taxes can be raised without negative effects. His campaign recently told the New York Times, 'Tax increases now would accelerate growth by funding a stream of spending proposals that would help the economy.' So the argument seems to go that because higher tax rates could fund new programs, higher tax rates would help the economy. But as noted by Douglas Holtz Eakin, 'The taxes are bad but all the better news for growth, if there is any, is in the spending proposals.' That means tax increases on business and higher earners would inflict damage on the economy no matter how the revenue would be spent. In fact, all major analyses of the tax plan of Biden find negative effects on the economy. Estimates from the Tax Foundation model show that his tax plan would reduce productivity output by nearly 1.5 percent over the long term. The magnitude varies across estimates due to different factors, like how open the economy is, but the direction does not....While his advisers are encouraging Biden not to wait to increase taxes because the associated spending will bolster the economy, others are doubting the wisdom of tax increases when our growth is the goal....The notion that tax increases are positive for the economy is false. Hiking the marginal tax rates on labor or capital will reduce the incentive to work or save even if the higher revenue will be used well. There are other ways to raise a dollar of revenue for any given purpose."

JPM Says Trump Victory Is "Most Favorable Outcome", Would Push S&P To 3,900 -Zero Hedge
"Over the past month, Wall Street's strategists have engaged in a comprehensive campaign to 'ease' client fears that a Biden administration and/or a 'Blue Sweep' would be bad for risk assets, shifting the narrative to where such an outcome would be just as good for stocks if not better than a continuation of the status quo, thus avoiding a selloff should Nov 3 prove to be a rout for Republicans, to wit: Higher corporate taxes under Biden? No worries, it will be offset by up to $7 trillion in fiscal stimulus under a joint Democratic congress. A doubling of capital gains taxes? No worries, it only will affect the super-rich and while it may hit stocks in late 2021, the dip will be quickly bought as, after all, stocks always go up, with Goldman predicting that 'regardless of the election outcome, we expect roughly 10% upside to the S&P 500 by the middle of next year.' Higher bond yields under a Democratic sweep? No worries, after all we need higher yields to telegraph that the economy is improving and reflation is returning. A recent Bank of America analysis laid out the 4 possible election outcomes, which were more dependent on the composition of the Senate than who is president (the worst scenarios for markets were those where 'president Biden' faced a Republican Senate and vice versa for Trump)....Judging by the latest report from JPMorgan head of global equity strategy, Dubravko Lakos-Bujas - published over the weekend, Wall Street is about to pull a U-turn and begin pre-emptive damage control should Trump win. Indeed, in a dramatic reversal from the recent narrative which present a 'Blue Sweep' as the most beneficial outcome from the election, the JPMorgan strategist writes that he maintains a probability weighted S&P 500 price target of 3,600 for year-end, and sees 'an orderly Trump victory as the most favorable outcome for equities (upside to ~3,900).'"

The Only 5 Things You Can Invest In -Carlson/A Wealth of Common Sense
"There are only two basic things I care about in terms of how my children turn out someday: (1) I want them to be healthy and happy. (2) I want them to be good people....In the investment world so much time and energy is spent thinking through various market scenarios, investment strategies, economic datapoints, asset class combinations and financial minutiae. But your capital is just one thing you can invest in...With this idea in mind, here are the five main factors in life you can invest in: 1. Your Time. Time is the one asset where there's no inequality on a daily basis....2. Your Money. Investing your money is certainly important if you ever hope to gain more independence over your time but this is not solely about the markets. What do you spend your money on? Who do you spend your money on?...Mr. Carson on Downton Abbey once remarked, 'The business of life is the acquisition of memories. In the end, that's all there is.'....3. Your Energy...Between careers, friends, family, working out, Netflix and hobbies it's not always easy to get everything in that you need to for a balanced life....4. Yourself...You'll never have enough energy if you don't invest in your health. You'll never advance in your career if you don't invest in your education and learning....5. Your Contentment. Happiness is a valid goal but I've come to the conclusion that simply being content is a worthwhile pursuit....Whatever it is, figuring out how to keep your sanity, maybe now more than ever, is a worthwhile investment."

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Oct 26, 2020


10.26.20 - Big Drop In COVID-19 Death Rates

Gold last traded at $1,902 an ounce. Silver at $24.30 an ounce.

NEWS SUMMARY: Precious metal prices traded mixed Monday on safe-haven buying despite a firmer dollar. U.S. stocks fell sharply amid record daily coronavirus cases and stalled stimulus talks.

How Gold Gets To $3,000 -Seeking Alpha
"It's monetary inflation (i.e., money supply growth) that determines gold's value, not price inflation. Gold would need to increase to $2,400 to get back in line with M2. The U.S. will continue to fund these deficits with more debt and debt monetization. This will result in the rate of M2 growth remaining far higher than historical norms. Physical gold and gold mining stocks remain one of the best options for investors that want portfolio protection from the monetary inflation that is occurring now and that will occur in the future. When gold hit $2,000 per ounce this past summer, many investors were likely showing curiosity but weren't able to judge whether there was a lot more gas left in the tank or if gold was on empty....Since the 2000s, negative real interest rates have been prevalent, and gold has seen a resurgence since the turn of the century....Everything is in place for gold to reach $3,000 per ounce. I'm not predicting that will occur within the next few months...I believe, over the next 2-3 years, gold will hit that $3,000 target."

Fed money Central Banks Trying to Create Inflation Is An Old Laugh Line -Snyder/Real Clear Markets
"Money is very easy, they all say, central bankers most of all. Just create some digital bank reserves out of thin air, stand back and watch the inflationary magic set off an accelerating recovery of sustained, badly-needed economic growth. Except, no inflation. No magic....March 2020 was downright unnecessary. Not just in the Federal Reserve's absolutely disastrous decision to swap bank reserves for badly needed T-bills. (I mean, if they were trying to crash the system like so many wrongly claim, what would they have done differently?)....What you're left with is the distinct impression this isn't a serious effort by the Fed....But these are not serious people. These are not serious efforts. They are moved forward, grudgingly, only by continued failure and only enough to keep the metaphorical torches and pitchforks from coming for central bankers and bank regulatory officials. Doing just enough to sound like they're doing something...It's late 2020 heading toward 2021, and central banks like regulatory authorities still haven't caught up to the last half of the 20th century. But inflation therefore real economic recovery is just over the horizon because this time, unlike all those other times, they figured out the right QE? Some jokes just aren't funny."

Studies Point To Big Drop In COVID-19 Death Rates -NPR
"Two new peer-reviewed studies are showing a sharp drop in mortality among hospitalized COVID-19 patients. The drop is seen in all groups, including older patients and those with underlying conditions, suggesting that physicians are getting better at helping patients survive their illness. 'We find that the death rate has gone down substantially,' says Leora Horwitz, a doctor who studies population health at New York University's Grossman School of Medicine and an author on one of the studies, which looked at thousands of patients from March to August. The study, which was of a single health system, finds that mortality has dropped among hospitalized patients by 18 percentage points since the pandemic began. Patients in the study had a 25.6% chance of dying at the start of the pandemic; they now have a 7.6% chance. That's a big improvement, but 7.6% is still a high risk compared with other diseases, and Horwitz and other researchers caution that COVID-19 remains dangerous....'I would classify this as a silver lining to what has been quite a hard time for many people,' says Bilal Mateen, a data science fellow at the Alan Turing Institute in the United Kingdom. He has conducted his own research of 21,000 hospitalized cases in England, which also found a similarly sharp drop in the death rate. The work, which will soon appear in the journal Critical Care Medicine and was released earlier in preprint, shows an unadjusted drop in death rates among hospitalized patients of around 20 percentage points since the worst days of the pandemic...'Clearly, there's been something [that's] gone on that's improved the risk of individuals who go into these settings with COVID-19,' he says. Horwitz and others believe many things have led to the drop in the death rate...Doctors around the country say that they're doing a lot of things differently in the fight against COVID-19 and that treatment is improving....A recent estimate by the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation suggests the total death count could reach well over 300,000 Americans by February."

Sorry NYT, the Only "Closed U.S. Economy" Is the U.S. Economy -Tamny/Real Clear Markets
"Imagine 100 people on a wholly deserted island. Life would be pretty dreadful, right? With only 100 people producing, work would be endless in return for very few of life's comforts. At which point imagine if suddenly a shipwreck deposited 100 more, able-bodied people on the same deserted, desperate island. Would the first 100 lose their jobs as a consequence of the arrival of the second batch of humans? The obvious answer is no. In truth, 200 extra 'hands' arriving onshore would signal boom times in a relative sense for everyone on the island. The more hands at work, the more that there would be work specialization. And when workers are specialized, they're logically quite a bit more productive....As Nobel Laureate Robert Mundell has long made plain, the only 'closed economy' is the world economy. So much U.S. prosperity is a function of Chinese workers freeing U.S. workers from what they used to do, plus so much of it is a consequence of demand from Chinese workers for U.S. plenty....Which brings us to Iowa. It was one of the states that didn't lock down in response to the coronavirus. New York Times reporters Ben Casselman and Jim Tankersley have alerted their flock to a growth slowdown in the state despite. Supposedly Iowa's economic struggles are a sign that lockdown opponents have overstated the impact of the latter on economic growth. No, they haven't....The better way to address Iowa's slow growth is to consider the unseen. How much more shrunken would the state's economy be if the state had locked down in the way that California or New York had. That's the more important measure...Naturally Iowa's economy has contracted when it's remembered that by April, a quarter of the U.S. economy was locked down, along with parts of the global economy. Slower growth was a given. One state or one country's impoverishment doesn't lift other states or countries; rather it impoverishes them in a relative sense. That's is so because wealth isn't a fixed pie. Instead, wealth is created. And the more that labor is divided, the more economic growth overall...The lockdowns crushed the U.S. economy. Period. That they also infected the part of the U.S. and world not locked down was and is a statement of the obvious. The only 'closed U.S. economy' is the U.S. economy."

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Oct 23, 2020


10.23.20 - Why Gold Wins No Matter Who is Elected

Gold last traded at $1,904 an ounce. Silver at $24.60 an ounce.

NEWS SUMMARY: Precious metal prices steadied on Friday on upbeat manufacturing data and a flat dollar. U.S. stocks traded mixed as a decline in Intel pressured the broader tech sector. Investors also weighed the potential for additional fiscal stimulus as well as news on the coronavirus treatment front.

Election scenarios: Why gold price wins either way -Golubova/Kitco
"Markets fear uncertainty and there is plenty of it on the table with the U.S. election less than two weeks away. What does it all mean for gold? Analysts say that even in the worst-case scenario, gold will see higher prices by year-end....'The Democrats on average plan to spend $5.6 trillion over the next couple of years and that ultimately means that much of that will be funded by central bank printing,' TD Securities head of global strategy Bart Melek said....A full Democratic sweep could still shock the markets....Important to highlight that a Donald Trump win is also good for gold, with analysts saying that gold will run higher under either of the candidates. 'Regardless of which presidential candidate gets in, gold will ultimately be going higher. Both candidates will be spending money, and that is bullish for gold,' said Phoenix Futures and Options LLC president Kevin Grady....'Regardless of who wins, inflation expectations are ticking up. We could see $2,000 an ounce gold by the end of this year...More generally, gold prices will stay high for an extended period of time,' said Capital Economics commodities economist James O'Rourke....The worst-case scenario would be a contested election, according to analysts, who don't rule out this possibility amid a very polarized landscape in the U.S."

social Media USA Today Refused To Publish Hunter Biden Scandal Op-Ed, So Here It Is -Reynolds/Zero Hedge
"In my 2019 book, The Social Media Upheaval, I warned that the Big Tech companies - especially social media giants like Facebook and Twitter - had grown into powerful monopolists, who were using their power over the national conversation to not only sell ads, but also to promote a political agenda. That was pretty obvious last year, but it was even more obvious last week, when Facebook and Twitter tried to black out the New York Post's blockbuster report about emails found on a laptop abandoned by Democratic presidential candidate Joe Biden's son Hunter. The emails, some of which have been confirmed as genuine with their recipients, show substantial evidence that Hunter Biden used his position as Vice President Joe Biden's son to extract substantial payments from 'clients' in other countries. There are also photos of Hunter with a crack pipe, and engaging in various other unsavory activities. And they demolished the elder Biden's claim that he never discussed business with his son. That's a big election-year news story. Some people doubted its genuineness, and of course it's always fair to question a big election-year news story, especially one that comes out shortly before the election...Big Tech could have tried an approach that fostered such a debate. But instead of debate, they went for a blackout: Both services actually blocked links to the New York Post story. That's right: They blocked readers from discussing a major news story by a major paper, one so old that it was founded by none other than Alexander Hamilton....Now even people who didn't care so much about Hunter Biden's racket nonetheless became angry, and started talking about the story....Regardless of who wins in November, it's likely that there will be substantial efforts to rein in Big Tech....As I wrote in The Social Media Upheaval, the best solution is probably to apply antitrust law to break up these monopolies: Competing companies would police each other, and if they colluded could be prosecuted under antitrust law....Had Facebook and Twitter approached this story neutrally, as they would have a decade ago, it would probably already be old news...Their heavy handed action has brought home just how much power they wield, and how crudely they're willing to wield it. They shouldn't be surprised at the consequences."

Capitalism Always Buries Its Undertakers -Law & Liberty
"In 2017, the Museum of Capitalism opened its doors in Oakland, California...This might seem like an absurd endeavor, but the Museum of Capitalism is deadly serious, and part of the return of prognostications about capitalism's future - on the page, on the screen, and in the street - in the decade since the financial crisis....People have been talking about capitalism - and predicting its downfall - ever since the word was coined in the 19th century. And yet here we still are, toiling under so-called capitalist oppression more than 150 years later. As Francesco Boldizzoni details in Foretelling the End Of Capitalism: Intellectual Misadventures Since Karl Marx, reports of capitalism's demise have, time and again, been greatly exaggerated....According to Boldizzoni, these misadventures fall into four categories: theories of implosion, exhaustion, convergence, and cultural involution. Implosion theories are the most conventionally Marxist...A falling rate of profit would mean the capitalists must work the proletariat harder and harder, the accumulation of capital would bring with it the 'accumulation of misery.'...When Marx's prediction of a class consciousness and rebellion failed to materialize, Marxism splintered....Advocates of more benign exhaustion theories posit that capitalism will 'die of natural causes.'....Convergence theories were in vogue in the 1930s, when 'the idea that fascism, the New Deal, and Soviet interventionism were driven by some obscure force of progress to increasingly resemble one another swirled around in the heads of many, whatever their political orientation.'....According to the cultural involution camp, capitalism's weakness lies not in its internal economic tensions, as Marx argued, but in its political and cultural contradictions....Boldizzoni sees predicting capitalism's downfall as 'more often a distraction from the difficulties of the present than an activity useful in improving the human condition.'....Uncertainty over capitalism's fate undermines the historical determinism that inflects most of Foretelling the End of Capitalism. Boldizzoni's argument would be more engaging if he entertained the possibility that, rather than capitalism's future being baked in, it will be decided by a series of pivotal political decisions in the coming decades."

Printed Money and Central Planning Won't Revive a Corona-Wrecked Economy -Rep. Davidson/Real Clear Markets
"When the history of 2020 is written, COVID 19 will loom large - as a public health crisis, but especially for its effects on economic and civic life....As Americans cope with pandemic fatigue and economic uncertainty, much of the economy remains in a state of limbo. More and more Americans feel a disconnect between themselves and the policymakers they elect to represent them. Likewise, the disconnect between marketable securities on Wall Street and Main Street is growing....It is essential that we end policies that keep businesses closed and consumers fearful. However, two other factors are also prolonging economic stagnation. Flat unemployment benefits created by the CARES Act have kept many hourly workers at home instead of returning to work. Similarly, the Federal Reserve has incentivized banks to hoard cash, rather than lend it. Put plainly, Congress and the Fed are paying people and banks to maintain the broken status quo that has shackled both the labor and lending markets....This flawed structure sends a federal payment of $15 an hour (assuming a 40-hour workweek) to workers who may not have even made $15 per hour when working. Those workers also collect traditional state unemployment, pushing the total compensation over $25 per hour for not working. While cash is hitting the macro-economy, the effect on the labor market has proven disastrous....Now, House Democrats want to restart these unemployment benefits, just as we are seeing an increase in job growth. This gross distortion to the labor market can be avoided by refusing to reauthorize a program that pays people more for not working than they were making while working. An alternative approach could pay workers 67-80% of their wages earned while working, with a floor and a ceiling....It's time to rebuild the robust economy Americans enjoyed until the coronavirus brought everything to a halt. Printed money and central planning are poor substitutes for America's strong and growing market economy. Persistent attempts to substitute are dangerously growing government, distorting markets, and unduly accelerating the risk of national bankruptcy."

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Oct 22, 2020


10.22.20 - Digital Dollars Soon To Replace Paper Money

Gold last traded at $1,903 an ounce. Silver at $24.67 an ounce.

NEWS SUMMARY: Precious metal prices pulled back Thursday on profit-taking and a firmer dollar. U.S. stocks retreated as traders weighed the latest fiscal stimulus news along with corporate earnings and economic data.

Greenback's pain is gold and silver's gain -Wyckoff/Kitco
"Gold and silver prices are firmly up in U.S. trading Wednesday. Support at mid-week comes from a weakening U.S. dollar index that hit a six-week low today. Weaker U.S. stock indexes at midday are also aiding the precious metals markets, which are a competing asset class with equities...Gold and silver also got some buying support today when Federal Reserve Governor Brainard make some downbeat remarks on the U.S. economy, including saying the rate of jobs growth is decelerating. It appears questionable if the U.S. Congress and the Trump administration can come to agreement on a new Covid-19 stimulus package before the U.S. elections in less than two weeks. All sides are still in communication regarding getting some kind of a stimulus package for Americans, however. The U.S. Senate Republicans could stymie any deal that is agreed upon by the House and the Trump administration....Technically, December gold futures bulls have the overall near-term technical advantage and they are working on restarting a price uptrend on the daily bar chart. Bulls' next upside price objective is to produce a close in December futures above solid resistance at the October high of $1,939.40....December silver futures bulls have the overall near-term technical advantage and are working on a price uptrend on the daily chart. Silver bulls' next upside price objective is closing prices above solid technical resistance at $27.00 an ounce."

currency Banks And The Digital Dollar -Zero Hedge
"Paper money is going away in the very near future. Sooner than you realize, paper money will be replaced by a 'digital-USD'. Money is already digital. Your bank and brokerage accounts are book entries in a digital database. These book entries are claims that can be exchanged for paper money or paper stock certificates. Governments, including the US government, will be mandating the exchange of all paper money for its digital 'upgrade.' Why and when will this happen?....Within 7 or 10 years, paper money will be history and not legal tender anymore. China is already testing a digital RMB, so our leading nation is well behind its competitor, and once China rolls out its digital RMB in 2023, our government will spearhead the rollout of our USD version....Americans say 'that can't happen here, we value our privacy.' That's ridiculous. If you buy with a debit or credit card, your grocery store knows when you buy broccoli and they know your brand of ice cream. If you have a smartphone, your phone company knows where you are at all times, and, yes, they sell that location data to hundreds of companies who pay for it...Try taking away free gmail, smartphones and credit cards and see the voters scream - people don't want privacy. Later this decade, once the digital dollar is in place, the government can finally implement policy more effectively....The Fed is on record saying they want inflation, and the politicians and public are addicted to the stimulus, so its print print print until we finally get sustained inflation....The next round of inflation, late in the decade or in the early 2030s, will basically wipe out all the banks. I predict the end of fractional reserve banking in its current form."

Only two other times since George Washington was president has the U.S. stock market been as far above trend as it is now -Hulbert/Marketwatch
"Here's some disturbing news for those of you who think you're basing your investment strategy on history: The U.S. stock market must fall 43% in order to be in line with the longest-possible trend in its history. This trend to which I refer traces the U.S. stock market back to 1793...The source is Edward McQuarrie, a professor emeritus at the Leavey School of Business at Santa Clara [Calif.] University who has spent years reconstructing U.S. stock market history....There have been only two other occasions when the U.S. stock market was as far above trend as it is now: the late 1960s/early 1970s and at the top of the internet bubble. We all know what happened after those two periods. The internet bubble burst, taking stocks with it, and the stock market from the bear-market of 1973-74 went nowhere on a dividend-adjusted and inflation-adjusted basis through 1985....There are many judgment calls to be made when reading the historical tea leaves. So when you hear a conclusion about stocks over the long-term based on anything less than the full 227-year timeline of the U.S. stock market, ask what the result would be if that entire history was counted."

The Elephant in the Room at Tonight's Debate -Regan/American Consequences
"Tonight, President Donald Trump and Joe Biden will go head-to-head in the final debate before the 2020 election. Microphones will be muted and flies kept at bay"¦ But the discussion topics are clearly absent of some crucial points, including the economy and foreign policy. Instead, tonight's agenda will stick to the following: fighting COVID-19, race in America, climate change, American families, national security, and leadership. As you can imagine, the Trump camp is not thrilled about the topic selection"¦ The president's campaign manager accused the commission of pro-Biden 'antics,' as Trump supporters argue that the REAL reason for the foreign-policy omission is an orchestrated effort to avoid the topic of foreign conflicts of interest"¦ specifically the recent New York Post bombshell report....One thing is certain"¦ Americans are being done a massive disservice since they will not hear from the candidates themselves on policies concerning the Middle East, China, or North Korea tonight....But most alarming for everyday Americans is the fact that Big Tech is playing favorites by censoring the recent Biden scandal"¦ It is systematically shutting down the story itself, censoring what we can and cannot read....Why is the media shutting this down? Why are they protecting Biden? If the tables were turned, you know they'd be all over Trump."

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Oct 21, 2020


10.21.20 - Gold Prices Will Surge, Just Not Yet

Gold last traded at $1,924 an ounce. Silver at $25.05 an ounce.

NEWS SUMMARY: Precious metal prices rose sharply Wednesday on bullish sentiment and an eroding dollar. U.S. stocks traded mixed as House Speaker Nancy Pelosi and Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin continue their negotiations on a new fiscal stimulus package.

Gold will surge, just not yet -Krauth/Kitco
"Yes, gold is in a bull market. Yes, the all fundamental reasons for it to keep rising are still in place. Yes, gold's going to the moon. It's just not going there overnight...I'll show you why, and when it might....The US election is just two weeks away, and there's still no stimulus package. The White House is proposing $1.8 trillion, while the Democrats want $2.2 trillion. At the risk of alienating some voters, the Democrats are reticent towards doing a deal that could help Trump get re-elected. Even if a deal were to get done before the election, I don't think another round of stimulus checks would be part of it. If that comes, it will likely only come later. But more money will flow, and that's why gold will rally....The Fed's balance sheet is now seven times the size it was before the 2008 financial crisis. In the last year alone, it has gone from $3.75 trillion to $7 trillion. That's a great reason to own gold....Gold's $1,900 peak in 2011 is hardly a blip compared to gold's $800 peak in 1980. That's why I believe gold still has much, much, much higher to go before topping....Right now my sense is that gold's likely to start moving only after the election. I think the two most likely catalysts are some sort of election chaos/extended uncertainty, or the next major stimulus package. That's something we can expect no matter who's sitting in the oval office. Stay long gold, and buy the dips. Don't worry"¦gold's going up."

political division Understanding the Left -Cochrane/The Grumpy Economist
"A new wave of government expansion is cresting. It poses a threat not just to our economic well being, but to our freedom - social, political and economic. Consider the economic agenda proposed by the Democratic presidential candidates: A government takeover of health care. Taxpayer bailout of student loans. Necessarily, after that, government funded and administered college. An immense industrial-planning and regulation effort in the name of climate. Government jobs for all. 'Basic income' transfers on top of social programs.Confiscatory wealth, income, estate and corporate taxation. Government and 'stakeholder' control of corporate boards. Rent controls and subsidies. Expanded, politically-allocated 'affordable' housing. Expanded regulation of wages, hiring and firing. Extensive speech and content regulation on the internet. And this is the center of the movement, not its fringe that talks of banning air travel. Though the fringe becomes the center quickly here....All these measures gives great power those who control the government....The ideological side of this movement marshals the social, cultural, psychological, and political force of religious fanaticism....Western civilization is just a stew of systemic racism, sexism, colonialism, homophobia, and genocide. Our economy and political system are dominated by huge monopolies and billionaires, enriching themselves by squeezing the little people dry. Swarms of unemployed roam the land. Armageddon is coming, in exactly 11 years. Climate is the world's 'greatest problem,' never mind war, pandemic, civilizational collapse or the mundane smoke and bacteria that kill thousands....To gain and signal virtue, you must master an ever-changing menagerie of nonsense words, repeated until they gain meaning. Say no longer global warming, not even climate change, now say 'climate catastrophe.' Say not poor, say 'marginalized' and 'underresourced' 'community.' Say not homeless, say 'unhoused.' Say not 'minority,' you must now say 'minoritized.' Nouns are now passive verbs, with mysterious hidden subjects. 'Violence,' 'trauma' and 'racism' are thrown out like candies, trivializing centuries of suffering....What to do? To get out of this we must reverse the winner-take-all rules of our political game....Bottom line: This isn''t your grumpy uncle's socialism, singing Pete Seeger union songs from the 1930s. It's new and different. What is the question to which its goals are an answer? Only one makes sense, a political will to grab, expand, and keep the power of the federal government. That political program is married to a new secular cult. That movement has already taken over most of the 'elite' institutions of our country, and disarmed the rest, who now feel guilt rather than pride of and hope for the American project. Politicians have chosen partisanship, and chosen to ally with this jihadist cult, because the expansion of government power has made our system much more winner-take-all and shove-it-down-throats of electoral minorities. Fix that, I think, and we survive. Leave it in place, and they just might win and take all. This isn't about 2020. It will be with us for decades."

Justice Department Files Google Antitrust Lawsuit -Wall Street Journal
"The Justice Department filed an antitrust lawsuit Tuesday alleging that Google engaged in anticompetitive conduct to preserve monopolies in search and search advertising that form the cornerstones of its vast conglomerate. The long-anticipated case, filed in a Washington, D.C., federal court, marks the most aggressive U.S. legal challenge to a company's dominance in the tech sector in more than two decades, with the potential to shake up Silicon Valley and beyond. Once a public darling, Google attracted considerable scrutiny over the past decade as it gained power but has avoided a true showdown with the government until now. The department alleged that Google, a unit of Alphabet Inc., is maintaining its status as gatekeeper to the internet through an unlawful web of exclusionary and interlocking business agreements that shut out competitors. The government alleged that Google uses billions of dollars collected from advertisements on its platform to pay mobile-phone manufacturers, carriers and browsers, like Apple Inc.'s Safari, to maintain Google as their preset, default search engine. The upshot is that Google has pole position in search on hundreds of millions of American devices, with little opportunity for any competitor to make inroads, the government alleged....Google owns or controls search distribution channels accounting for about 80% of search queries in the U.S., the lawsuit said. That means Google's competitors can't get a meaningful number of search queries and build a scale needed to compete, leaving consumers with less choice and less innovation, and advertisers with less competitive prices, the lawsuit alleged....A loss for Google could mean court-ordered changes to how it operates parts of its business, potentially creating new openings for rival companies....The tech sector has been a particular challenge for antitrust enforcers and the courts because the industry evolves rapidly and many products and services are offered free to consumers, who in a sense pay with the valuable personal data companies such as Google collect."

When retirement arrives sooner than expected: What to do, what to know -Wiles/AZ Republic
"Millions of Americans spend decades preparing for retirement, yet it sometimes sneaks up suddenly, when you're least expecting it....Although Americans typically assume they will retire when they want, and on their own terms, many are in for a surprise. Half of the retired respondents to an Allianz Life Insurance survey said they left work earlier than expected....Most retirees said they quit working for reasons outside their control, such as a surprise job loss or health issues. The survey of 1,000 mostly middle-class Americans was conducted in January, just before the COVID-19 pandemic led to broad layoffs. 'Many Americans are in need of a wake-up call about the very real possibility that their retirement start date might not be when they want it to be,' said Kelly LaVigne, an Allianz vice president, in a prepared statement. Here are some aspects to ponder if you suddenly are given the option, or are forced, to stop working prematurely: 1) Planning how to spend that time - While you might like the vision of unfettered free time, it can be a problem, too. Many people derive satisfaction from their jobs, along with social interaction. That could disappear with an earlier than expected departure....2) Evaluating health costs - It's easier to accept an early retirement package if you can retain some subsidized health insurance coverage from your employer, at least until Medicare kicks in at age 65....3) Fitting in part-time employment - It can be advantageous, emotionally as well as financially, to work part time after you end your official career. You will generate extra income and possibly nurture social interactions and stay sharp mentally....4) Juggling Social Security, part-time work - Part-time work also can be an issue if you have started to receive Social Security retirement benefits... $1 in Social Security benefits will be withheld for every $2 earned above $18,240....5) Getting ready to cut costs - One key consideration in mulling an early retirement decision is whether you can afford it...Cut your expenses by downsizing your home or reducing other outlays....In the Allianz survey, 6 in 10 workers voiced concern about running out of money before they die, yet most indicated they haven't been doing much about it...Early retirement can sound plenty appealing, until the realities set in."

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Oct 20, 2020


10.20.20 - The next economic crisis: Empty retail space

Gold last traded at $1,911 an ounce. Silver at $24.84 an ounce.

NEWS SUMMARY: Precious metal prices were higher Tuesday on safe-haven buying and a weaker dollar. U.S. stocks rose as a deadline for a new fiscal stimulus deal from Washington approached.

Gold rises on dollar dip, hopes for U.S. relief package -CNBC
"Gold rose about 1% on Monday as the dollar retreated and as expectations of a U.S. stimulus deal being reached ahead of the presidential elections in November bolstered bullion's appeal as an inflation hedge. Gold is strengthening on the dollar's downtrend and 'the belief that some kind of stimulus package is going to come through in the next 48 hours,' said Phillip Streible, chief market strategist at Blue Line Futures in Chicago. 'People believe that we're going to go into an inflationary period into the next quarter. So they're starting up front on that.'...Gold has gained about 26% so far this year as investors sought refuge from a worsening coronavirus pandemic and also risks of inflation and currency debasement as global central banks slashed interest rates while pumping out unprecedented stimulus to contain the economic blow. Further underpinning safe-haven demand for bullion were concerns surrounding fresh coronavirus-led restrictions in Europe and elsewhere as worldwide infections crossed over 40 million, as well as uncertainty over the U.S. elections. Elsewhere, silver climbed 2.2% to $24.70, having hit a near one-week peak. Citi said in a note it expects silver to rally to $40 over the next 12 months, on sustained investor demand and a recovery in industrial consumption in 2021."

white house The Democratic demolition of America -Ponte/WND
"Most Americans think of 2020 as a presidential election year. But radical leftists - especially those who have hijacked and now control the Democratic Party - see this as a year of revolution for overthrowing the United States that they have been plotting for more than 100 years....The radical leftist goal in 2020 is to bring down America through a 'controlled demolition,' using precisely placed explosives to destroy key parts of our society that have kept America standing tall....Target No. 1 in this demolition will be the Senate filibuster, a 60-vote supermajority that preserves Thomas Jefferson's belief that 'great issues should never be forced on slender majorities.'....Target No. 2 will be the creation of six new seats on the Supreme Court, to be 'packed' by appointed-for-life young leftists as unelected lawmakers imposing radical ideology, not justice....Target No. 3 for demolition will be the U.S. Senate, packed with four perpetual Democrats from the new states of Puerto Rico and the District of Columbia....Target No. 4 will be all future election safeguards. A Democrat-dominated Congress will impose California-like ballot harvesting and mass mail-in ballots nationwide....Target No. 5 will be the electorate, soon to include millions of additional illegal aliens immediately given the vote. A huge class of people dependent on government checks will guarantee future Democratic election dominance. Nothing could prevent free speech or gun ownership being redefined as 'collective rights' denied to individuals; or outlawing private property; or lowering the voting age to 15 while banning senior citizen voting. An ever-poorer, weaker United States will dissolve into a Chinese Communist Party-controlled global government, which is fine with violent infantilized Biden-supporting Brownshirt mobs that chant: 'No Trump! No Wall! No USA at all!'"

The next economic crisis: Empty retail space -Politico
"Commercial real estate is in trouble, and turbulence in the $15 trillion market is threatening to bleed over into the broader financial system just as the U.S. struggles to emerge from a recession. The longer the pandemic paralyzes hotels, retailers and office buildings, the more difficult it is for property owners to meet their mortgage payments - raising the specter of widespread downgrades, defaults and eventual foreclosures....'Sometimes people forget the depth and breadth of what commercial real estate is,' said Mike Flood, senior vice president of commercial and multifamily policy at the Mortgage Bankers Association. 'What's at risk here is both the ability for people to stay in their apartments and the ability for people to go to their jobs.' A major problem is no one knows how long the drop in commercial real estate will last. Business travel isn't expected to pick back up for at least a year, so hotels are being hammered...The loss of paying tenants could touch off a wave of property write-downs and eventual foreclosures on everything from shopping centers to apartment buildings. But it's not just a pocket of wealthy investors who will get hurt by widespread write-downs. Eighty-seven percent of public pension funds and 73 percent of private pension funds hold real estate investments....One in 5 loans bundled into commercial mortgage-backed securities are on special servicing watchlists...like a major tenant moving out."

Coronavirus Pandemic Putting Damper on Holiday Shopping Season -Wall Street Journal
"The coronavirus pandemic is creating novel hurdles for Americans' spending this holiday season, posing potential challenges for an economy that leans heavily on their willingness to consume. Households face the prospect of Halloween without trick or treaters, Thanksgiving without family travels, Black Friday without crowds, and a December without parties and in-person gift-giving. Congressional deadlock over fresh fiscal aid for the millions unemployed and a contentious presidential election campaign are also potential dampers on this year's cheer....Sucharita Kodali, a retail-industry analyst at Forrester Research Inc., expects retail spending this holiday season to be flat compared with 2019. Though she predicts online sales will grow 20% to 25%, the sharp decrease in foot traffic at bricks-and-mortar stores is expected to keep overall spending in check this November and December. Given coronavirus constraints, 'there's not going to be as much Halloween spending this year,' either, she said. This year's outlook is so unpredictable that some forecasters aren't even making predictions....Retailers are pushing an earlier start to the holiday season, both to limit crowds at stores and to ease pressure on supply chains by avoiding preholiday-order bottlenecks....In the long term, economists say, consumers can only keep spending if they are earning. This means the postholiday outlook will depend on job growth, which slowed sharply in recent months as more layoffs turned permanent. This year's muted retail expectations are being reflected in weak holiday hiring. Seasonal job postings this year are 11% below last year, job site Indeed said this month."

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Oct 19, 2020


10.19.20 - Gold Is Still A Great Opportunity

Gold last traded at $1,906 an ounce. Silver at $24.50 an ounce.

NEWS SUMMARY: Precious metal prices rose on safe-haven buying and a weaker dollar. U.S. stocks fell on dimming hopes for a pre-election stimulus deal as a rising number of Covid-19 cases dampened sentiment.

Gold Is Still A Great Opportunity -Hirst/Seeking Alpha
"U.S. equity markets have been in a holding pattern since early September, Europe has been holding since June, and most other global markets are in bear market formations where the rallies have held and are going nowhere, Roger Hirst told Real Vision during today's Daily Briefing. Hirst said it's common for markets to go sideways before an election and then have a relief rally no matter which side wins because there is finally more certainty. He thinks we'll likely see this in the U.S., especially because both sides will do more fiscal going forward....He believes the safety valve for the inflation play will be precious metals and he remains bullish on gold. Hirst concluded the interview with his thoughts about the U.S. and Europe's differing approaches to stimulus. He said the U.S. will probably see higher levels of bankruptcy sooner than Europe, but because Europe is supporting jobs that are never coming back, they're in a position of having to support them ad infinitum, which is contributing to the zombification of the European system."

market chart Trump, Biden and the secret lesson of free markets -Forbes/Fox Business
"Wednesday, October 14, could serve as a lesson for President Trump, candidate Biden and current and future policymakers everywhere about the positive power of free markets and the perils of overregulation. The date marks 40 years since President Jimmy Carter signed the little-known Staggers Rail Act into law, removing government shackles on pricing and other operations dating back to the late nineteenth century. The act was a stunning success. The legislation largely removed government from the business of railroading and quickly blunted a stream of bankruptcies in the sector...Excessive government regulation came close to destroying the rail system; economic deregulation in the early 1980s saved it. From being a basket case, our railroads transformed themselves into models of efficiency, service improvement and profit production....Federal regulators do not always know what is 'best.' Data-driven markets and the free individual decisions of citizens - not lobbyists or ideologies - have proven to be the best at rewarding companies who benefit society....Whoever controls the White House and Congress in 2021 should look at the Staggers Act as a powerful lesson in the positive power of markets. We must not repeat history and erode core economic strengths for the sake of regulation. Regulatory humility should instead guide decisions aimed at the welfare of the consumer."

The November 3rd Elections -Hoffmeister/Camelot Advisors
"With Election Day less than a month away, we look at which party will likely control the White House, Senate and House in 2020"¦ and what to watch for on Election Night. Currently, the major polls give former Vice President Biden more than a 9-point lead nationally against President Trump - according to RealClearPolitics National Average...But, of course, the major polls were generally wrong in 2016; notably about the presidential race. In the following Election Review, we look at what some of the polling firms that called 2016 correctly are seeing today. Their polling suggests that President Trump will be re-elected, either narrowly or by a large margin. Therefore, capital allocators today cannot easily assume next month's results. It's very possible that Trump will win Florida, North Carolina and Arizona. If so, a win in Pennsylvania or Michigan will likely put him over the top in the electoral college. As for the Senate and House, it appears that Republicans will keep control of the Senate, especially if Trump has a strong night. But the House is highly likely to remain in Democratic control. Democracy Institute's Latest Poll for September only asks likely voters, and asks about so-called 'shy votes'. Trump leads Biden 46%-45%, nationally. Trump leads in swing states (FL, IA, MI, MN, PA, WI) 47% to 43%. Trump's swing state leads would give him 320 electoral votes, and Biden 218. 77% of Trump voters would not admit to friends and family. Amy Coney Barrett nomination has little impact on approximately 8 in 10 voters. Law and order is top issue (32%). Economy is second (30%). Voters trust Trump more on economy than Biden: 60% to 40%, respectively."

This Spring, We All Drove Much Less. Yet Traffic Deaths Went Up. Why? -New York Mag
"New data released by the National Highway Traffic Safety Administration for the first half of 2020 - when much of the U.S. population was under stay-at-home orders - show that the rate of traffic deaths per mile driven went up, not down. How is that possible? Americans drove less - a lot less - in the first six months of 2020. The number of vehicle miles traveled by drivers fell by 16.6 percent....Because overall traffic volume decreased so much compared to the previous year, the traffic fatality rate - calculated as the number of fatalities per 100 million vehicle miles driven - increased from 1.06 in the first half of 2019 to 1.25 in the first half of 2020. That rate - fatal crashes per mile driven - hasn't been that high for more than a decade. So what was happening?...The combination of risky drivers plus near-empty streets also resulted in faster driving, which, in turn, made streets more deadly. 'Faster travel, whether or not actually exceeding the speed limit, increases the chance of fatalities in a crash,' the report says. And drivers were more likely to engage in other risky behaviors as well. Data collected from trauma centers show an increase in drug and alcohol use by drivers and a decrease in seat-belt use for all vehicle occupants, determined by the number of people who were ejected from crashes."

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Oct 16, 2020


10.16.20 - At $1,900 Gold Price is Still Cheap

Gold last traded at $1,902 an ounce. Silver at $24.26 an ounce.

NEWS SUMMARY: Precious metal prices traded mixed Friday on a weaker dollar despite upbeat economic data. U.S. stocks tried to snap a three-day losing streak after better-than-expected September retail sales.

At $1,900 gold is still cheap -Kitco
"As gold prices hover around $1,900, one market strategist continues to see upside potential as the market remains undervalued compared to other assets. In a commentary posted Wednesday, Jesse Felder, publisher of the Felder Report investment newsletter, reiterated his bullish stance on the precious metal. He said that although gold has nearly doubled in price in the last five years, it remains cheap compared to equities. 'The gold price relative to the Dow Jones Industrial Average would seem to suggest it is not expensive at all. In fact, to match the valuation peak it reached about a decade ago, gold would need to double again from its current price,' he said in his latest commentary. 'So gold's upside potential over the long run looks far from exhausted even after its terrific run over the past few years,' he added. Although gold prices have dropped from their all-time highs reached in August, the market is still seeing gains of around 25% since the start of the year. Many analysts expect gold prices to end the year back above $2,000 an ounce as central banks look to maintain the extraordinarily loose monetary policies for the foreseeable future. The Federal Reserve is expected to keep interest rates at the zero-bound level through 2023....Along with low interest rates, commodity analysts and economists expect to see inflation pressures rise, which could push real interest rates into negative territory, creating the perfect environment for gold."

layoffs "Temporary" Layoffs Turning Into Permanent Job Losses -Zero Hedge
"When governments across the US forced businesses to close down in response to the coronavirus pandemic, everybody assumed the layoffs would be temporary. Despite the huge surge in unemployment, the expectation was people would quickly return to work once the crisis passed and the economy opened up again. But as the pandemic stretches into its eighth month, millions of Americans remain out of work and economists say many of those 'temporary' job losses have become permanent...The unemployment rate has nearly halved to 7.9% since April. But nearly 13 million Americans remain out of work. That's about 7 million more than pre-pandemic levels. According to the Bureau of Labor Statistics, the number of job losses categorized as permanent grew by 345,000 to 3.8 million people in September. In other words, nearly 4 million unemployed Americans have no prospects of returning to work. The number of long-term unemployed - people out of work for a period exceeding six months - has ballooned. Around 2.4 million Americans were unemployed for 27 weeks or more in September, up 781,000 from the previous month. The last time we saw this kind of jump in long-term unemployment was during the Great Recession. To make matters worse, companies have begun initiating layoffs on a trajectory similar to a traditional recession, according to CNBC. And tens of thousands of people will get pink slips in the coming weeks as the long-term economic damage caused by government lockdowns in response to the coronavirus pandemic begin to ripple through the economy....There is also the looming prospect of more corporate bankruptcies and business closures, putting more pressure on the jobs market. Large company bankruptcies have already surged to a level not seen since 2010 and more than 420,000 small businesses have closed their doors permanently since the beginning of the pandemic....The lockdowns may have permanently scarred the labor market and there are signs of deep wounds that won't quickly heal. In a nutshell, a lot of people will likely never return to work."

Joe Biden Keeps Everyone Guessing on Wall Street Regulation -Wall Street Journal
"Fifteen years ago, Joe Biden defended credit-card companies during a testy Senate exchange with Elizabeth Warren over legislation curtailing consumers' ability to shed their debts in bankruptcy. This March, he adopted her argument entirely. Mr. Biden spent 36 years as a senator from the credit-card and corporate mecca of Delaware, where he built relationships and a voting record that provided ammunition for his opponents during a bruising Democratic presidential primary. Now, he is edging left on a range of issues from student debt to stock buybacks, leaving both progressives and Wall Street Democrats guessing whose side of the financial-regulation fight he is on. Mr. Biden's allies say he has always favored Main Street over Wall Street. Critics, including Vermont Senator and primary rival Bernie Sanders, often have portrayed him as favoring lenders over the little guy....With polls showing Mr. Biden ahead nationally and in many swing states, progressives and Wall Street Democrats are jockeying to influence his potential administration, advising the campaign on policies and suggesting Cabinet and top regulatory officials. 'If Biden wins, it's likely one of the wings will be very unhappy by Inauguration, as Biden's early personnel decisions will indicate which grouping is ascendant,' said Jeff Hauser, who analyzes corporate influence on government for the liberal Center for Economic and Policy Research. Both Democratic factions say they expect that a Biden administration would approach financial regulation much as President Obama did. While Mr. Obama signed the Dodd-Frank financial-reform act in 2010, the new law left out high-priority progressive proposals such as breaking up big banks. Broadly, the Biden campaign's proposals for the financial sector are being written with an eye to meeting the expectations of the Democratic progressive base without spooking moderates who worry about expanding regulatory powers."

Bitcoin's Legacy Will Be Short-Lived -Dyson/Rogue Economics
"My working hypothesis is that the bitcoin price peaked in December 2017 amidst a furious speculative fever and it is now slowly returning to obscurity....All this week, we've been making the case that bitcoin is going to $0....Unlike nails (or gold), bitcoin has no primary use as a physical material. So how can anyone confidently accept it in barter when no one uses it in industry? They can't. Accepting bitcoin is the same thing as taking a leap of faith. So in my opinion, bitcoin is just a speculative vehicle"¦ like a gambling game"¦ and the most perfect experiment in Greater Fool Theory mankind has ever devised. (The Greater Fool Theory is an explanation for the rising price of an asset beyond its intrinsic value. It suggests people will sometimes pay irrationally high prices for assets for the simple reason they imagine there's an even greater fool coming behind them to pay an even higher price.) We might call bitcoin 'a digital token' or 'digital paper,' which is why governments around the world are all embracing its concept. (Unbacked digital tokens are the perfect companion to their unbacked paper currencies.) But it's not money. The question is: Can the bitcoin price rise from here? Sure. But if you study investment manias throughout history, you'll know that once a speculative fever breaks, the price of the asset doesn't recover its all-time high again for many years"¦ if at all....Because governments use their control of money to extract wealth from the marketplace (via inflation). There's no way they'll willingly give up this power, especially now. Expecting bitcoin to gain wide acceptance is the same as expecting governments to freely surrender their powers. Not going to happen. So in sum, bitcoin has neither the industrial value of gold, nor the value for the ruling class of state-issued paper currency. It'll never work."

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Oct 15, 2020


10.15.20 - Stock Market Disagrees With Polls

Gold last traded at $1,905 an ounce. Silver at $24.20 an ounce.

NEWS SUMMARY: Precious metal prices consolidated Thursday as dimming pre-election stimulus hopes boosted the dollar. U.S. stocks fell for a third day following worse-than-expected jobless claims and stimulus deal uncertainty.

Sell U.S. Dollar, Buy Silver -Goldman/Kitco
"Investors should look into selling the U.S. dollar and buying silver into the election, according to two new reports published by Goldman Sachs Group Inc. There is a growing risk that the U.S. dollar will plunge to its 2018 lows as Democratic candidate Joe Biden continues to extend his lead in the polls prior to the election on November 3. 'The risks are skewed toward dollar weakness, and we see relatively low odds of the most dollar-positive outcome - a win by Mr. Trump combined with a meaningful vaccine delay,' Goldman strategists said in a note on Friday. 'A blue wave U.S. election and favorable news on the vaccine timeline could return the trade-weighted dollar and DXY index to their 2018 lows'....In another report, Goldman analyst Mikhail Sprogis highlighted silver as a buy due to the precious metal being an 'obvious beneficiary' from a global move toward solar energy. 'Now, with silver at $24/oz. and a few potential upward solar surprises in the coming months, we reopen the trade,' Sprogis said....Sprogis reminded investors that solar investment represents about 18% of silver's industrial demand. The base case scenario is that global solar installations rise by 50% between 2019 and 2023, according to Goldman."

trump card The Stock Market Disagrees With the Presidential Polls -Brandus/MarketWatch
"With three weeks to go, President Trump's re-election bid is in trouble. At least that's what the polls show. But it's not what the stock market is signaling. Based on nearly a century's worth of election-year data, Trump may yet win...Since 1928, whenever the S&P 500 Index of the largest U.S. stocks has risen in the three months prior to a presidential election, the party that controlled the White House won 90% of the time. 'If you think about it intuitively, it makes sense,' says Julian Emanuel, chief equity and derivative strategist for the investment firm BTIG who compiled the data. 'Because a rising stock market tends to be a ratification of the present policies being satisfying to the investing public.'....In fact, there have been six presidential years since 1928 when the S&P 500 fell in the three months before election day. All six times, the party in the White House lost....That's the history. What about now? Three months prior to election day (Nov. 3), the S&P 500 was at 3,271 points. It's over 3,500 today, a gain of 7%. Based on Emanuel's study of history, Trump is better positioned to win a second term than pollsters or the media seem to think. Both, Emanuel says, may be 'underestimating the probability of President Trump getting re-elected.' He's unswayed by Biden's recent surge. The former vice president's lead in national polls has risen from about 6.5 percentage points at the beginning of October to about 10.5 points now. Emanuel's answer to this: The race perhaps isn't being handicapped correctly....Ronald Reagan crushed President Jimmy Carter in a landslide in 1980, but people forget that the former California governor trailed by as much as 8 points in mid-October."

Who's Afraid of Amy Coney Barrett? -Editors/Wall Street Journal
"The Senate confirmation hearings for Amy Coney Barrett may lack for political drama, but they are still instructive. They are revealing the deep fault lines over the Supreme Court, and how Democrats view it as a mini-legislature to achieve policy goals, rather than a real judicial body. Democrats are asking very little about the actual law or Judge Barrett's jurisprudential thinking. Instead, one after another, Democrats have used their time to focus on a parade of policy horribles if she is confirmed. And for emotional effect, they brought along photo displays of children and women who would supposedly be her victims on health care, abortion, gun violence and more. All of this distorts the role of a judge, who has to rule based on what the law is, not on what she would want it to be. 'Judges can't just wake up one day and say 'I have an agenda. I like guns. I hate guns. I like abortion, I hate abortion' and walk in like a royal queen and impose their will on the world,' Judge Barrett said Tuesday. But that is lost on Democrats, who are treating the hearings like a campaign rally. Start with their focus on Judge Barrett as a threat to health insurance....Democrats also flogged Judge Barrett for criticizing the Chief Justice's creative interpretation of the individual mandate as a tax....Democrats also distorted the risks that the Court will overturn Obergefell v. Hodges that divined a right to same-sex marriage in the Constitution....The current 'conservative' Court has already shown it is more heterodox than one dominated by liberals. That's because originalists seek to interpret laws based on the text and the Constitution rather than merely find a way to arrive at a foregone policy result. Everything we know suggests Judge Barrett will rule in the same originalist way, and this should reassure the public that the Court will be properly modest in interpreting the law as it is."

Why Doubt Is Essential to Science -Scientific American
"The confidence people place in science is frequently based not on what it really is, but on what people would like it to be...For example, a majority of Americans trust science as long as it does not challenge their existing beliefs. But doubt in science is a feature, not a bug. Indeed, the paradox is that science, when properly functioning, questions accepted facts and yields both new knowledge and new questions - not certainty....As a historian of science, I would argue that it's the responsibility of scientists and historians of science to show that the real power of science lies precisely in what is often perceived as its weakness: its drive to question and challenge a hypothesis....Examples of relativism about issues including climate change and, most recently, the COVID-19 pandemic have significantly contributed to the proliferation of fake news and conspiracy theories....In an effort to combat misinformation, scientists may overcompensate by accelerating their research, or publicizing their findings prematurely. This can spur dialogue about science but, with serious side effects. Some scientists have yielded to public pressure by rushing to provide theories about and potential cures for COVID-19....So how to regain public trust in science when the public is looking for certainties and when those who are supposed to impersonate doubt seem to be fickle or dogmatic? A more realistic understanding of how science works can contribute to a better comprehension of the decisive role of doubt and skepticism in the scientific process. Indeed, science is not a linear path leading from one success to another, but rather a constant reevaluation of hypotheses. Failures are part of the scientific process and should be taught along with successes....What must be reaffirmed is that in science, doubt is not a vulnerability but a strength."

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Oct 14, 2020


10.14.20 - Trump: "I Was Right About Damaging Lockdowns"

Gold last traded at $1,900 an ounce. Silver at $24.19 an ounce.

NEWS SUMMARY: Precious metal prices rose Wednesday on bargain-hunting, rising inflation and a falling dollar. U.S. stocks struggled as traders pored through another batch of corporate earnings and looked for clues on further coronavirus aid.

Some Are Betting On Red, Some On Blue. I'm Betting On Gold -Holmes/Forbes
"The Wall Street Journal reported on Friday that the White House is preparing a coronavirus stimulus offer valued at $1.8 trillion, despite President Trump's earlier comment on ending negotiations....With the national debt now topping $27 trillion, such a package isn't good for the government's balance sheet, but it's good for gold. Indeed, the yellow metal traded up as much as 1.8 percent on the news. And I believe there's additional upside potential - no matter who wins the election. In 22 days, millions of Americans will be betting on 'red,' millions of others on 'blue.' I'll be betting on gold. I'm far from the only one. Leon Cooperman became just the latest billionaire investor to buy gold. In a recent interview, the Omega Advisors chairman and CEO said: 'I bought gold for the first time in my life a week ago. I understand the case for gold. We're on the way to some banana republic situation. Nobody's worrying about the debt that's being created.' Meanwhile, ETFs backed by physical gold climbed to a record amount last Monday, touching 111.05 million ounces. According to the World Gold Council's (WGC) September report, global gold ETFs saw their 10th straight month of inflows last month. For the first time ever, such funds added more than 1,000 tonnes of gold so far this year, the equivalent of $55.7 billion....It's not too late to participate!"

lockdown Trump: "I Was Right About Damaging Lockdowns" -Zero Hedge
"During his first rally since swiftly defeating coronavirus, President Trump again slammed lockdown policies, and declared that he was right about resisting them all along, after the World Health Organization admitted that countries should not be using lockdowns as a way of controlling the virus. 'The World Health Organization came out a little while ago and admitted the lockdowns are doing tremendous damage to these Democrat-run states where they are in lockdown,' Trump told the huge crowd in Florida Monday night. 'They corrected themselves today and said I was right,' the President reiterated: Trump was referring to WHO envoy Dr. David Nabarro telling The Spectator that 'We really do appeal to all world leaders: stop using lockdown as your primary control method.' Nabarro added that 'The only time we believe a lockdown is justified is to buy you time to reorganize, regroup, rebalance your resources, protect your health workers who are exhausted, but by and large, we'd rather not do it.' 'I took us out of the WHO because they were wrong about everything. Although, they corrected themselves - they say I was right about the lockdowns. (I asked) Why are we paying $500 million a year and China which has 1.4 billion people is paying $39 million per year - they couldn't explain so I took us out,' Trump urged. The President also painted a grim picture of what will happen if Joe Biden is elected. 'Biden would terminate our recovery, delay the vaccine, prolong the pandemic and annihilate Florida's economy with a draconian, unscientific lockdown - that's what he wants to do, lock it down, lock it down everybody,' Trump told the crowd. 'And you know what? If you don't feel good about going out, stay, relax, stay. You know the risk groups, you know the older people,' the President added."

Where is compassion for the millions who have suffered harm from lockdowns? -Rice/American Thinker
"I'm sure many Americans are growing tired of being labeled 'insensitive' or 'uncaring' or lacking compassion because we are perceived as not caring about 'at-risk' people who might contract the coronavirus. Let's talk about 'compassion for our fellow man.' Where's the compassion for the single mom who is increasingly struggling to purchase diapers or baby formula for her children? Where's the compassion for the victims of child abuse, which is no doubt spiking due to the economic slowdown? Where's the compassion for those who have committed suicide or attempted suicide or will do either in coming months and years? Where's the compassion for the tens of thousands of business-owners who have permanently closed their businesses, or for the tens of millions of unemployed former employees? Where's the compassion for those who have been forced to declare bankruptcy, or are agonizing over doing this?....I'm not even mentioning the terrifying disappearance of fundamental rights and liberties that are being forfeited at a mind-boggling pace, or the growth of authoritarian governments. Or our 'new normal,' which now censors and bullies those who happen to hold opposing views. Do most Americans now believe that less freedom and more government control will benefit mankind? Has anyone else noticed the surge in violent crimes occurring in practically every city in this country?....The argument that we should essentially lock down the world - and everyone should live in constant fear even if his own risks are minuscule - has transformed our country into a grim, unrecognizable place. COVID has claimed and will continue to claim lives, but 99.9 percent of the country's population will not die from this virus. By now, practically every family in the country has already experienced negative consequences or obvious harm...not from the virus, but from the policy responses to the virus."

Three Simple Habits to Create Lasting Wealth -Tiwari/Rogue Economics
"I was raised with a poverty mindset. I was taught that money was evil"¦ that rich people were mean and underhanded"¦ and that you must accept you will never be rich. Maybe you can identify with that type of upbringing? I knew I had to break out of that mindset. But the thing is, money is completely devoid of consciousness. Money is simply a by-product of three main habits. Habit No. 1: Live on less than you earn. If you consistently keep more than what goes out, you'll have a surplus of money. Simple, right? Habit No. 2: Maximize your ability to earn from your current job. Your single-biggest source of income is your current job. Most jobs will pay you more money as your skill rises. So the quickest way to make more money is to improve your skills. Put yourself on a skill development track that will have you becoming world-class at your job....If your current firm doesn't recognize your improved performance, that's okay"¦ Go find another employer that will. Be sure to negotiate for more money. And never leave a job without having another one lined up first. Habit No. 3: Create multiple streams of income. If you've nailed the first two habits, No. 3 is how you turbocharge your wealth. This is where you invest in low-risk, income-producing stocks, real estate, or private businesses. Additionally, this is where you can incorporate a 'side hustle' for extra income....Wealth creation isn't complicated. But it is difficult. It's difficult because we're bombarded with ads to buy stuff every minute of every day. That makes habit No. 1 - live on less than you earn - the toughest to acquire. But without that habit, you can never create lasting wealth."

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Oct 13, 2020


10.13.20 - Key Driver May 'Propel' Gold to New Highs

Gold last traded at $1,894 an ounce. Silver at $24.16 an ounce.

NEWS SUMMARY: Precious metal prices retreated Tuesday on profit-taking and a stronger dollar. U.S. stocks slipped as investors digested the first batch of corporate earnings and as hopes for a stimulus deal before the election dimmed.

This driver could 'propel' gold price back to its new all-time highs -Bloomberg Intelligence/Kitco
"There is one driver that could really re-ignite the gold price rally during this turbulent fourth quarter, according to Bloomberg Intelligence senior commodity strategist Mike McGlone....'Gold is likely to remain atop our macro-performance scoreboard in 4Q,' McGlone said. 'The greenback entering a bear market would propel gold, if history is a guide.' The yellow metal is currently in a bull market with strong established above $1,800 an ounce after a sharp rise to a new record high of $2,075 an ounce this summer....Another sign of the current bull market is that gold hasn't wrapped up a quarter since Q1 2019, less than 8% above its 50-week moving average, McGlone pointed out. Bloomberg Intelligence sees gold eventually climbing back up to its new record highs, especially in light of the increasing debt-to-GDP ratio and massive global quantitative easing. 'History dictates that the gold-price rally should accelerate toward $2,000 if the dollar is peaking,' McGlone said....When it comes to silver, McGlone projects a re-take of $30 an ounce."

fortunes The K-Shaped Recovery: A 'V' For Some, Not For Most -Zero Hedge
"What is a 'K'-shaped recovery? It's a 'V' on the top, and an inverted 'V' on the bottom....Following the economic shutdown, much of the data shows strong signs of improvement....In the bottom half of the 'K' shaped recovery lies the majority of the economy. Its recovery is questionable the longer the pandemic goes on....A 'V' For The Top 10%, as noted by the WSJ...'Households in the bottom 20% of incomes had seen their financial assets, such as money in the bank, stock and bond investments or retirement funds, fall by 34% since the end of the 2007-09 recession, according to Fed data adjusted for inflation. Those in the middle of the income distribution have seen just 4% growth.' Indeed, one of the simplest ways to envision the current 'K' shaped recovery is by looking at the surge of the stock market since late March. However, as we have noted previously, the 'stock market' is no longer representative of the underlying economy. Such is due to massive interventions by the Federal Reserve, which pushed speculation in 'risk' assets to historic levels...It also exacerbated financial inequality when the top 1% of earners owns 52% of the stocks and mutual funds. The differential in ownership in financial assets between the top 10% of the economy, which owns fully 88% of the stock market, and everyone else isn't even close. While the 'rich get richer,' the poor continue to suffer. Unfortunately, the fiscal stimulus will only worsen the divide....In the current recovery, it is clear that those at the top of the 'K' are indeed experiencing a 'V'-shaped recovery. For the rest, not so much....History is replete with examples of the 'endgame' of socialistic experiments of running unbridled debts and deficits. Maybe we should try something different, and allow recessions to reset economic imbalances."

COVID lockdown debate: Dems want science, they should look at the Great Barrington Declaration - Pudzer/Fox News
"If Democrats truly want to follow the science - rather than the politics - in the fight against COVID-19, they might want to take a closer look at 'The Great Barrington Declaration.' Organized by infectious-disease experts Dr. Martin Kulldorff of Harvard University, Dr. Sunetra Gupta of Oxford University and Dr. Jay Bhattacharya of Stanford University, it recommends allowing people to live normally despite the virus while protecting the most vulnerable elements of the population so as to avoid the lockdowns' devastating physical, mental, economic, and educational impacts. The mainstream media has essentially ignored the Declaration, but to date over 5,500 medical and public health scientists and 11,000 medical practitioners have signed it. That numbers continue to grow. The Declaration expresses 'grave concerns about the damaging physical and mental health impacts of the prevailing COVID-19 policies,' pointing out that the 'heaviest burden' is falling on 'working-class and younger members of society.' According to the Declaration, '[c]urrent lockdown policies are producing devastating effects on short and long-term public health.' It concludes that '[k]eeping these measures in place until a vaccine is available will cause irreparable damage, with the underprivileged disproportionately harmed.'....It is essentially the approach followed in Sweden (the country that has most successfully dealt with the virus), which is increasingly supported by the World Health Organization. It is also the very policy approach that President Trump has been recommending, to great criticism and disdain from Democrats and their leftist media allies. The Declaration's conclusion is also consistent with the CDC's September 10th age-specific update to COVID-19's estimated Infection Fatality Rate. The CDC's 'Current Best Estimate' for survival rates: 0-19 years old, 99.997 percent; 20-49 years old, 99.98 percent; 50-69 years, 99.5 percent; and 70 years old or older, 94.6 percent....The greatest economic threat facing American workers right now is the prospect that in just a few months, Biden could actually have the power to sacrifice their jobs on the altar of his politics, as he's repeatedly indicated he would be willing to do by imposing a national shutdown."

Joe Biden on What Voters 'Deserve' -Editors/Wall Street Journal
"H.L. Mencken's famous line about democracy is that voters know what they want and deserve to get it - good and hard. Joe Biden's apparent view is that voters shouldn't know what they're getting until after the election. For a change, the press corps is asking Mr. Biden why he won't answer a straightforward question on whether he agrees with the demands of his party's left to add Justices to the nine-member Supreme Court. Mr. Biden and Kamala Harris have been ducking it, and on Thursday Mr. Biden said voters will 'know my opinion on Court-packing when the election is over.' He added: 'Now, look, I know it's a great question, and y'all - and I don't blame you for asking it. But you know the moment I answer that question, the headline in every one of your papers will be about that.' Yes, it's called news. On Friday Mr. Biden compounded this political gaffe when a reporter in Las Vegas asked 'Don't the voters deserve to know where you stand on' court packing? 'No, they don't deserve' Mr. Biden snapped....The question is central to American self-government. Democrats on the resurgent left believe the Supreme Court is a de facto second legislature to achieve policies they can't pass in Congress. And now that judicial conservatives may have a majority on the Court for the first time in decades, Democrats want to add Justices and turn the Court into a de jure House of Lords. Would Mr. Biden sign that legislation or not? If he won't tell voters now, they can assume he'll roll over for Nancy Pelosi and Chuck Schumer on that and so much more."

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Oct 12, 2020


10.12.20 - Is Gold Cheap at $2000 an Ounce?

Gold last traded at $1,923 an ounce. Silver at $25.08 an ounce.

NEWS SUMMARY: Precious metal prices steadied Monday on bullish technical signals and a flat dollar. U.S. stocks rose as investors monitored stimulus negotiations and prepared for a busy week of corporate earnings.

Is Gold Cheap at $2000 an ounce? -Doug Casey's International Man
"What lies ahead for the US economy is not a V- or a W- or an L-shaped recovery but a long, downward-inclined staircase which could lead to an abyss. With our current trajectory, that is not only a possibility but the most probable outcome. Barring dramatic changes to monetary and fiscal policies - the US dollar would not only lose its status as the world's reserve currency but would more than likely meet the fate of the Continental....Is Gold Cheaper at $2000 an ounce in 2020 than it was at $35 in 1971? Fundamental to this comparison is the recognition that gold is money and that the Fed's notes that circulate today have value only because they represent a claim against money....If we compare the money supply ratios M1-2020 / M1-1971 or M2-2020 / M2-1971, we can see that these are up about 30 times. Gold prices, on the other hand, are up about 60 times, so it looks relatively fairly valued. But what this comparison ignores are some critical differences between then and now...Between 1971 and 1981, the money supply in the US doubled...M1 has grown by about 35% in the last few weeks. When Paul Volcker set short-term interest rates at 20%...Reagan unequivocally backed him. Compare that to today, in which Trump threatened to remove Powell for attempting to maintain interest rates at only 2%. The US economy today is floating on a number of asset bubbles - equities, housing, and bonds. All these bubbles not only need ultra-low interest rates, but they also need continuous infusions of capital to prevent them from bursting. If we account for these factors, one could make a rational claim that gold at $2,000 an ounce in 2020 is cheaper than $35 an ounce in 1971....M1 today is about $5 trillion. If this were to be backed 100% by gold, then the 261.5M oz. of gold held by the US government would have to be valued at about $20,000/ounce or about 10x the current price. Depending on the various combinations of percentage backing and M1/M2 for our calculations, we could get a multiple of anywhere between 4 and 30x....Gold prices today mean a whole lot more than just a number. They indicate a tumultuous future of monetary breakdown with tremendous social and economic upheavals...The recent breakout in the price of gold is just the beginning. Gold is set to skyrocket in the months ahead."

chart

Majority Say They Are Better Off Under Trump Than Obama/Biden -Gallup/Zero Hedge
"Pollster Gallup has found that a majority of 56% of Americans feel that they are better off now under Donald Trump's presidency than they were four years ago under Barack Obama and Joe Biden. The survey recorded the highest number of Americans in history saying that they feel in a better position 4 years into an incumbent's presidency....While the majority is a good sign for Trump, the figure was even higher back in February, before the coronavirus pandemic. Back then, 61% expressed more satisfaction than they had four years previously. Given the current circumstances, it is rather startling to find that more Americans think they are better off now, and betrays how effective Trump's presidency has been thus far....The idea for the survey originates in a question Ronald Reagan asked Americans during his presidential campaign in 1980, 'Are you better off today than you were four years ago?'"

No more stimulus needed: Time to get on with the new economy -Worstall/Washington Examiner
"President Trump has announced that he won't be approving any more economic stimulus or relief legislation until after the election. This may or may not be a wise move - it depends upon your views of what sort of recession we're in right now. A rational view would be that it's good news, for the bad news is that we have two different recessionary events to deal with. The first recessionary event is obvious: close down large chunks of the economy, and we lose 30% or so of the GDP we had. Open it up again, and we get 30% growth (that being the current best estimate for the third quarter....We've had a lot of economic recovery, but not quite enough. At which point, we could just say let's blow some more of the deficit and get more stimulus! Which is to miss the second recessionary problem we've got. There are some things we have to do differently now. We cannot just go back to where we were because we're in a different world now...Social distancing means that concerts, plays, and the live arts just cannot be done as they were. There's also been an acceleration in already extant trends. More people working from home is going to kill city-center coffee shops and sandwich takeouts. More online shopping will affect bricks-and-mortar retail. These things just aren't going to bounce back. This is what the economist Arnold Kling calls a recalculation recession....At some point, the stimulus has to stop so that we can get on with the task of building the new economy we need instead of continuing to prop up all the last bits of the old one we'll never return to. We've done enough cash-splashing to get the economy as a whole to self-sustaining lift off. So, we should stop and now allow people to get on with the difficult bit: working out how we do things in our new world. No more stimulus is probably the right answer."

7 Things That Matter For Markets Going Forward -Carlson/A Wealth of Common Sense
"Here are 7 things I can't stop thinking about in terms of their impact on the markets going forward: 1. Interest rates. - The problem is rates have NEVER been this low before. No one knows what the unintended consequences will be....2. Fiscal stimulus. - The debt-to-GDP for the United States is the highest in history...Politicians found the lever to pull that can conjure growth out of thin air - government spending. 3. Inflation. - The biggest risk to all of this spending is inflation....4. The Fed. - The Fed met the pandemic with bazookas blazing. It's going to be difficult for the Fed to retract its alien tentacles from the markets....5. Automated investing. - The markets have never been more systematized as they are now...People panic and run out of the store when stocks go on sale....6. Demographics. - There have never been this many old people who have to take care of themselves financially for so long....7. Inequality. - The top 10% owns 70% of the wealth in the United States...Wealth inequality could have a much bigger impact on society at large if the rich continue to get richer while the poorer classes get knocked down a peg every time there's a recession."

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Oct 9, 2020


10.9.20 - Mike Pence's Re-Election Case -WSJ

Gold last traded at $1,926 an ounce. Silver at $25.06 an ounce

NEWS SUMMARY: Precious metal prices zoomed higher Friday on stimulus hopes and a sharply weaker dollar. U.S. stocks were lifted as Wall Street continued to search for clarity on a new potential stimulus bill.

Trump or Biden? Both to 'provide substantial tailwinds for the long gold trade' -TD Securities/Kitco
"According to TD Securities, whether U.S. President Donald Trump or Democratic candidate Joe Biden wins the election, gold will be all set to rise higher. 'With the Trump and Biden agendas estimated to cost between nearly $5.0 trillion and $5.6 trillion over the next decade, both would provide substantial tailwinds for the long gold trade,' TD Securities commodity strategists write. 'Barring a split government outcome, both administrations are likely to push through a large-scale fiscal deal in no time that would help de-bottleneck the real rate suppression, lifting precious metals in the process.' The end of this week is seeing risk assets firming amid some hope around stimulus talks. 'House Speaker Pelosi signaled a willingness to provide airline relief as a piecemeal deal, rather than a comprehensive fiscal stimulus package. While tailwinds of the last fiscal deal are fading, raising concerns that the U.S. may lose economic momentum before a new fiscal deal is agreed upon, gold bugs may not need to look too far on the horizon to expect a large-scale deal.'"

elephant Why Is the Recovering Economy the Elephant In the Room? -Ingram/Real Clear Markets
"America's economy is coming in hot, and it is vital that Congress not ruin this rebound with legislation that could leave millions of Americans permanently unemployed. Some Democrats in Washington are working to do just that. As new original research by the Foundation for Government Accountability highlights, the signs are all there: Unemployment claims are plummeting, jobs are coming back, and entrepreneurs are creating more new businesses than ever before. More than 1.7 million new businesses have formed since June alone. These markers for a recovering economy should be welcome news to us all, but you won't find them among the mainstream media's top talking points. Instead, they're playing fast and loose with the 'news' about our economy and are hoping voters don't realize a full economic recovery is already underway....Under the Coronavirus Aid, Relief, and Economic Security (CARES) Act, individuals were no longer required to search for work as a condition of receiving benefits, and an additional $600 weekly bonus was added to UI checks....More than 75 percent of UI recipients collected more in unemployment benefits than they did through work. But once the $600 weekly UI bonus expired, the economy began picking up speed. More than 4.4 million Americans have moved off of unemployment since late July, when the UI bonus expired. Nearly 3.8 million Americans returned to work in August alone. The unemployment rate is on the decline and job creation is on the rise....Last week, House Democrats jammed through legislation that would create another $600 weekly UI bonus that would last at least into spring of 2021. Though it's unlikely that this package will become law in its current form, we should question this continued push for extended UI benefits despite research showing the bonus both hurts the American economy and isn't necessary, given multiple economic markers proving we're on the road to recovery. The recovering American economy is rapidly becoming the proverbial elephant in a room full of Democrats. They may not want to admit it, but under President Trump's continued leadership, we're headed back to a roaring economy, and the media should share this good news far and wide."

Mike Pence's Re-Election Case -Editors/Wall Street Journal
"Mike Pence and Kamala Harris did a public service by offering a contrast on issues and values that voters aren't getting from the media or the presidential candidates. The Vice President did as well as he could playing defense on the pandemic, especially with his accurate gibe that Joe Biden's policy sounds like policy plagiarism. Senator Harris's main critique on the virus, as on most other issues, was less about substance than about Mr. Trump's rhetoric and personal behavior....Mr. Pence was most effective in pointing out how far left the Biden-Harris Democrats have moved...Voters haven't heard much about Mr. Biden's $2 trillion in spending over four years on the Green New Deal; the $4 trillion of tax increases that will reach into the working class through higher business and corporate rates. Mr. Pence also exposed Senator Harris for refusing to answer, as Mr. Biden also did last week, whether they support packing the Supreme Court if Judge Amy Coney Barrett is confirmed. Their response that the election is the issue now and everyone should vote is embarrassing even by the standards of political evasion. Ms. Harris scored points when she focused on the Administration's support for the case before the Supreme Court that would repeal ObamaCare. She claimed this would strip millions of their health insurance, which is false....VP debates rarely change the course of the election, and the GOP ticket remains far behind. But this clash did show that Mr. Pence is much more than merely a loyal deputy, and that Ms. Harris's views are much further to the left than Democrats want Americans to know. Mr. Trump has to make the election about the policy contrasts to have any chance of victory, and Mr. Pence showed how to do it."

The Pandora's Box of Central Bank Digital Currencies -Campbell/Doubleline
"With QE, central banks have printed excess reserves that have benefited only the very wealthy and large institutions. The innovation of a digital currency system as described by Mastercard could deliver stimulus directly to consumers. Such a mechanism could open veritable floodgates of liquidity into the consumer economy and accelerate the rate of inflation. While central banks have been trying without success to increase inflation for the past decade, the temptation to put Central Bank Digital Currencies (CBDCs) into effect might be very strong among policymakers. However, CBDCs would not only inject liquidity into the economy but also could accelerate the velocity of money. That one-two punch could bring about far more inflation than central bankers bargain for. When first implementing QE, central banks promised that this measure would be temporary and would be unwound after the crisis ended, a pledge that I have doubted for a while. Central banks as we know have perpetuated QE as part of their updated toolbox of monetary policies. The first use of digital currencies in monetary policy might start small as policymakers, out of caution, seek to calibrate this experiment in quasi-fiscal stimulus. However, such initial restraint could give way to growing complacency and greater use of the tool - just as we saw with QE....CBDCs also appear to be an effective mechanism for bypassing the taxation, debt issuance and spending prerogatives of government to implement a quasi-fiscal policy. Imagine, for example, the ease of enacting Modern Monetary Theory via CBDCs. With CBDCs, the central banks would possess the necessary plumbing to directly deliver a digital currency to individuals' bank accounts, ready to be spent via debit cards....With a flick of the digital switch, CBDCs can enable policymakers to ignite an inflation conflagration, abandoning what little still survives of sovereign fiscal discipline and who knows what else. I hope the leaders of the world's central banks will approach this new financial technology with extreme caution, guarding against its overuse or outright abuse. It's hard to be optimistic. Soon our monetary Pandoras will possess their own box full of new powers, perhaps too enticing to resist"

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Oct 8, 2020


10.8.20 - Get Ready For Chaos

Gold last traded at $1,890 an ounce. Silver at $23.83 an ounce

NEWS SUMMARY: Precious metal prices rose Thursday on bargain hunting and a flat dollar. U.S. stocks struggled after comments from House Speaker Nancy Pelosi dampened sentiment around potential for a smaller coronavirus aid package.

Market volatility, U.S. election 'don't deter $2,000 gold price, $30 silver price' near year-end -RBC/Kitco
"Gold and silver are still expected to rise into year-end despite current market volatility and election turbulence, says RBC Wealth Management managing director George Gero. 'More gold volatility now and debates don't deter expectations of $2,000 gold and $30.00 silver near year-end,' Gero writes. Expectations of low inflationary pressures without new stimulus are keeping downward pressure on gold for now. 'Today FED notes and speakers. Recovery expected to take longer without stimulus and pandemics headlines adding to volatility keeping inflationary numbers low,' Gero adds. 'Election also factor in gold prices and traders also looking at Brexit, U.S.-China tensions, Venezuela and BOE litigation on gold ownership.'"

liberty Get Ready For Chaos -Rickards/Zero Hedge
"There's less than a month until Election Day. Once the votes are in, the die will be cast for the next four years, perhaps longer. Trump or Biden? The difference could not be more clear, and the stakes could not be higher for you and your investments. If Trump wins, he may actually be able to finish his task of cleaning out Deep State actors, reducing regulation and taxes, securing U.S. energy independence, facilitating peace in the Middle East and finally bringing U.S. troops home from multi-decade wars in Iraq and Afghanistan. If Biden wins, brace yourself for higher taxes, the end of fracking, the Green New Deal, free tuition, free healthcare and free child care. In a Trump administration, the decoupling from China will continue, and China's ability to spy on the U.S. and steal our best ideas will be curtailed. If Biden wins, it will be back to business as usual with China stealing U.S. jobs, stealing U.S. intellectual property and cheating on their obligations to the World Trade Organization and the IMF....The main difference is that the country will set out on two entirely different paths depending on the outcome. In that sense, this will be the most consequential election since 1860, when a vote for Lincoln pointed toward a possible Civil War because the South had already made its intentions clear if Lincoln won. Today, the Rebels are not Southern secessionists. They are home-grown neo-Marxists, anarchists, thugs and goon squads who are rioting and looting daily in scores of U.S. cities. If Trump wins, you can expect to find U.S. cities in flames within 24 hours of the election results. If Biden wins, the neo-Marxists will have a seat at the table in the form of Bernie Sanders and Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez as they insist on full implementation of their agenda....Markets are not fully priced for any of this. They're not priced for anti-Trump chaos, and they're not priced for the Bernie Bros' hidden agenda that will be foisted on Biden. Although markets may not be prepared, you should be. A reduced exposure to equities, an increased allocation to Treasury notes and cash, and a 10% portfolio allocation to gold will offer true diversification."

Trump's Economic Dream Come True -Wall Street Journal
"Remember the economy of seven months ago? Until March it was growing at an impressive pace, but the Covid crisis makes it seem distant. With the election approaching, America should refresh its memory of the policies - namely, tax cuts and deregulation - that helped drive growth before the pandemic. When President Trump took office in 2017, the recovery from the 2008-09 recession was in its seventh year. After years of slow but sustained growth, many analysts expected another downturn....Free-market economists rejected that pessimistic view about the economy's potential, arguing instead that reducing tax and regulatory burdens would increase productivity and make capital and labor markets more efficient. By the end of 2017 the White House and a Republican Congress lowered the corporate tax rate from 35% to 21%, allowed businesses to expense capital costs upfront, and reduced tax rates on small businesses and individuals. They also repealed the regulatory burdens on several industries...These policies were based on the simple idea that economic improvement comes from creating greater opportunities for individual self-improvement. Policies that interfere with free markets destroy opportunities....Wages increased across all education levels, with the largest increase, 12%, occurring among workers with less than a high school education. Similarly, inflation-adjusted median family income increased in all quartiles of the income distribution. The largest increase occurred among the poorest fourth of U.S. households and the second largest in the second-poorest fourth...reaching a record low for a roughly three-year period....The coronavirus and lockdowns have had a devastating impact on workers and businesses, and have made prosperity feel distant. But we shouldn't forget the widespread gains that came from sound economic policies as recently as this spring...Countless issues are at stake in November. But economic policy deserves to be foremost in voters' minds. It may be the most important issue of all."

68% of people are significantly stressed by the election - 4 ways to cope -CNBC
"A recent survey from the American Psychological Association and Harris Poll found that 68% of American adults say that the upcoming U.S. presidential election is a significant source of stress in their life. To put that in context, ahead of the 2016 election, only 52% of Americans said the election was a 'somewhat significant source of stress.' If you are also feeling overwhelmed in the run up to the election, here are some research-backed strategies that the APA says can help you cope with election stress: 1) Avoid dwelling on worst case scenarios - Research has shown that ruminating, or thinking involving excessive, repetitive thoughts or themes, can impair thinking and problem-solving....2) Have a voting plan - Research suggests that volunteering can combat stress and even help you live longer. 3) Have an Election Day plan, too - 'Research shows that people who have at least one or two friends or family members to turn to for emotional support during stressful times tend to cope better than people who don't have such support,' according to the APA....4) Control your media consumption - Studies have shown that just watching news coverage of a traumatic event can trigger acute stress symptoms."

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Oct 7, 2020


10.7.20 - Gold: The Best Disaster Insurance

Gold last traded at $1,886 an ounce. Silver at $23.74 an ounce

NEWS SUMMARY: Precious metal prices rebounded Wednesday on bargain hunting and a weaker dollar. U.S. stocks rose after President Trump tweeted support for aid to airlines and other stimulus measures.

The One Question That Should Be Asked Tonight -Regan/American Consequences
"Welcome to the vice-presidential debate, during the era of coronavirus, coming to you live from Salt Lake City, Utah! Tonight, the stakes are high. With the election less than a month away, the Trump campaign is trying to pull another surprise win, just as it did in 2016. Poll numbers are down, and the odds certainly seem stacked against the president"¦But, as we all learned in '16, polls and odds are not always the best predictors of elections....Both candidates are skilled debaters...Pence proved his chops debating Tim Kaine...Harris has spent a career as a debater - both as a lawyer and as a politician....The question for tonight, however, is will Harris deploy that same devastating skill going after Pence? And if she does, will it backfire? Pence will be more adept at defending himself. He's polished and knows how to stick to a script without getting flustered....Personalities aside, the problem with Kamala and the liberal economic agenda is that ultimately it would destroy our American economy and way of life....Pence is well known for his belief in supply-side economics. His economic policy is the antithesis of Harris, who has demonstrated favoritism for socialism....Why should we trade prosperity, capitalism, and freedom"¦ for high taxes, slow growth, and economic instability? That's REALLY the question that should be asked tonight. Though, judging what we've seen from the media and debate moderators thus far, I don't suspect we'll hear it."

gold Gold Is Still the Best Disaster Insurance You Can Buy -Rogue Economics
"Regular readers know that Bill Bonner is a longtime goldbug. He and Dan Denning, his colleague over at The Bonner-Denning Letter, recommend allocating a sizable portion of your portfolio to the yellow metal....Some readers may be wondering if they've missed the opportunity to get into gold. But guest editor, David Forest from Casey Research, is here to tell us why he believes this gold bull market is just getting started. In August, gold took out its all-time high of around $1,914 an ounce and quickly shot past $2,000. But I believe we're just in the early innings of a historic gold bull market. There are a number of reasons why I think the precious metal will soar to new highs. Firstly, in an attempt to paper over the market's insanity, the feds continue to unleash a wave of money-printing unlike any we've seen before....Historically, October is a 'witching season' for market crashes. It's almost a self-fulfilling prophecy. Everyone worries and selling can quickly accelerate into a runaway collapse. Typically, when this happens, people rush out of stocks"¦ and into gold. But it likely won't be a straight shot higher for gold. There will be surges and dips along the way, as we've seen these last few weeks....If we do get another major crash, physical gold likely will offer protection. Historically, gold prices fall less than other assets during financial panics....Over the past 15 months, gold prices have already risen 37%...It's not too late to get in. The first step is owning physical gold."

The Stock-Market Disconnect -Rogoff/Project Syndicate
"The best explanation for why stock markets remain so bullish despite a massive recession is that major publicly traded companies have not borne the brunt of the pandemic's economic fallout. But having been spared by the virus, they could soon find themselves squarely in the sights of a populist backlash. Why are stock-market valuations soaring when the real economy remains so fragile? One factor has become increasingly clear: The crisis has disproportionately affected small businesses and low-income service workers. For example, because stock markets are forward-looking, current stock prices may reflect optimism about the imminent arrival of effective COVID-19 vaccines...This outlook may be justified, or it may be that markets are underestimating the likelihood of a severe second wave this winter, and overestimating the efficacy and impact of the first-generation vaccines. A second, and perhaps more convincing, explanation for today's stock market performance is that central banks have pushed interest rates down to near zero. But, again, it is not clear that markets are correct in anticipating a never-ending continuation of low interest rates. A third explanation is that in addition to providing ultra-low interest rates, central banks have directly backed private bond markets - representing an unprecedented intervention in the case of the US Federal Reserve....A big piece of the puzzle: the economic pain inflicted by COVID-19 is not being borne by publicly traded companies. It is falling on small businesses and individual service proprietors....Today's elevated stock markets face risks that are not only economic, including but not limited to the significant possibility of an unprecedented political crisis following the US presidential election this November...Wall Street will again be vilified, but populist wrath also will be directed toward Silicon Valley."

No Joe, You Didn't Hand Trump A Booming Economy -IssuesInsights
"'We left a booming economy,' Biden said during the first presidential debate, 'and he caused the recession.' Debate moderator Chris Wallace jumped in to help Biden, adding that job growth was faster in the last three years of Obama's term than the first three of Trump's. One is a flat out lie, the other a clever deception. After presiding over the worst economic recovery since the Great Depression, Obama and Biden left office with the economy stalling out, leading experts to warn that the nation was facing 'secular stagnation.' Look at the numbers. GDP growth sharply decelerated in 2016, falling from 3.1% the year before down 1.7% in 2016...Real median family income didn't budge from August 2015 to November 2016, according to Sentier Research. The stock market had been flat for more than a year...Does any of this sound anything like a booming economy? But what about the oft-repeated claim - repeated by Chris Wallace during the debate - that 'in Obama's final three years as president more jobs were created. A million and a half more jobs than in the first three years of your presidency.'....Under Obama, job growth in the recovery was unusually slow - slower in fact than every major recession before it...The only thing that grew fast under Obama was the number of people who'd dropped out of the labor force. That number climbed by almost 15 million....The economy under Trump created 4 million more jobs than would have been the case if Obama's policies had remained in effect."

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Oct 6, 2020


10.6.20 - False Reopening Hope Killing Small Business

Gold last traded at $1,905 an ounce. Silver at $23.90 an ounce

NEWS SUMMARY: Gold held its ground Tuesday after Powell's speech reaffirms uncertainty. Stocks were mixed on continued stimulus negotiations.

What Will Happen To Gold Under The Fed's New Monetary Framework? -OilPrice.org
"In August 2020, Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell delivered his Jackson Hole speech, unveiling a new monetary framework in the process. He announced a flexible average inflation targeting strategy (FAIT). The new regime implies that when the inflation undershoots its target in one period, the US central bank will try to push inflation above the target in the next period to compensate for the previous shortfalls....But shouldn't the central bank rather try to achieve the price stability and protect the society against high inflation? Of course, it should. However, the recent years of low inflation persistently below the Fed's target of 2 percent (...asset price inflation is significantly higher). The shift to the FAIT is a big move that should be positive in the long run for gold, which is considered an inflation hedge. But, perhaps even more important is the change within the employment side of the Fed's mandate...Under the new regime, the Fed will not hike interest rates preemptively and unless there are visible signs of accelerating inflation. It means that the FOMC will prioritize employment and economic growth over inflation. Hence, both major revisions - in the inflation and employment objectives - are fundamentally positive for the gold prices....The Fed's new framework implies lower real interest rates - is good news for the precious metals investors. And the risk of inflation getting out of control should also support the gold prices."

taxes Stock Market's Leaders Appear Most Vulnerable to Biden's Tax Plan -Wall Street Journal
"A corporate tax increase stemming from a Democratic victory in November could undermine one of the strongest drivers of this year's market recovery, market analysts say. Democratic presidential nominee Joe Biden has proposed raising the corporate tax rate to 28% from 21%, imposing a new minimum tax on U.S. companies and increasing taxes on foreign income of many U.S.-based multinationals, among other plans. Together, the tax proposals would reduce expected earnings among companies in the S&P 500 by 9.2%, according to estimates from BofA Global Research. The effects would especially hit technology companies. Mr. Biden's plan would produce estimated double-digit percentage declines in profits in the information-technology, communication-services and consumer-discretionary sectors, BofA's analysis found....Such a hit could challenge the leadership of those stocks - which have helped insulate the market during the pandemic - and test the durability of the 2020 rally....Mr. Biden's proposal for higher taxes on foreign income is expected to hit tech stocks particularly hard. The tech sector derives just 43.5% of its revenue from the U.S., compared with 60.3% for the S&P 500 as a whole, according to FactSet estimates. Another wild card for big tech companies is the possibility of a crackdown by regulators."

The false hope of reopening is killing small businesses -Vox
"During the pandemic, much of the conversation around small businesses has focused on lockdowns and reopening - just let things open back up again, the line of thinking goes, and everything will be okay. But the reality of the situation is that for many businesses, that's just not the case. According to Yelp, more than 160,000 US businesses on its platform have closed since March 1, nearly 100,000 of them permanently. 'People are not comfortable going to public places yet. We've tried to put so many safety measures in place, but all of that, essentially, is not going to matter if people will not come,' said Payal Patel, Chicago's Navy Pier communications director. You can't force business as usual when life is not. Many businesses already operating with low margins pre-pandemic can't survive under health-related restrictions that, while incredibly important, make staying afloat extremely difficult. Beyond the restrictions, there are also broader issues afoot. With a deadly virus still spreading, many Americans simply aren't falling over themselves to go out and consume. Millions of people have lost their jobs or are afraid they might, so they're not as eager to spend their money on things they don't perceive as necessary. That leaves small businesses fighting for their lives....According to data from OpenTable, which tracks restaurant reservations and traffic, seated dining in the US is still down more than 50 percent year-over-year...The colder months will present new challenges for restaurants, especially considering the majority of diners view outdoor dining as safer....Instead of going to the restaurant, they're going to the grocery store. Instead of buying a dress at the local boutique, they're ordering sweatpants on Amazon. Spending so much time at home has made people more interested in home-improvement projects, meaning trips to Home Depot....The belief that reopening would be a panacea for small business was wrong. That belief is also part of what is making it so hard for them to make it through. Policies to support small businesses were designed for short-term dips, not the long, deep economic slog we're in for."

How to Have a Disagreement Like an Adult -Chopra/New York Times
"Deepak Chopra, 73, has been looking out at the anxious and angry state of the world and he's not surprised. Some people may think this moment in time is the height of political and social division - with people baiting each other on social media, walking away from friendships, even splitting up with lovers over political polarization - but Mr. Chopra said our behavior is nothing new. 'It's been going on since the Stone Age,' he said....Mr. Chopra, celebrity and author of 91 books, has some tips for disagreeing better....STEP 1: Choose if you even want to engage - There are simply some confrontations that are not worth it. STEP 2: OK, you've decided to engage...So first, listen. - If you don't start with an open ear, you've lost your opponent. STEP 3: Learn about the other person's values. - The simplest way to learn about someone else is to ask about what is meaningful to them. STEP 4: Try awareness and a pause. - Tackle a disagreement with 'insight, intuition, inspiration, creativity, vision, higher purpose or authenticity integrity.' STEP 5: Don't engage in black-and-white thinking - 'Having a grievance or resentment is like drinking poison and hoping it will kill the enemy.' STEP 6: When confronted, stop, take a deep breath, smile and then make a choice. - 'Ask yourself, Am I going to be nasty? Am I going to be reactive? Or is there a creative solution to this?' STEP 7: Don't try to prove them wrong - The point of disagreeing is not to 'win' but to start negotiating. STEP 8: Be prepared to forgive - You might not feel the other person in a disagreement deserves forgiveness, but consider it for the sake of your own peace. STEP 9: Make a (gentle) joke - It's OK to bring humor into a tense conversation, as long as it isn't cruel or demeaning."

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Oct 5, 2020


10.5.20 - Gold Prices Reclaim $1,900/oz.

Gold last traded at $1,916 an ounce. Silver at $24.44 an ounce

NEWS SUMMARY: Precious metal prices rose Monday on bargain-hunting and a weaker dollar. U.S. stocks higher as investors grew more hopeful that lawmakers would reach a compromise on a new stimulus deal in light of President Donald Trump's Covid-19 diagnosis and signs of a slowdown in economic recovery.

Gold prices reclaim $1,900 -Marketwatch
"Gold prices reclaimed the $1,900 mark last week to post their highest finish in nearly two weeks, with analysts attributing the advance for the yellow metal to less than stellar economic data and traders hedging bets...'Gold prices are soaring as traders are concerned about the fragile economic data,' said Naeem Aslam, chief market analyst at AvaTrade. Consumer spending rose 1% in August, but the increase was the smallest since the U.S. reopened, and the Institute for Supply Management said its manufacturing index slipped to 54.6% in September from 56% in the prior month....The economic data 'confirmed that the economic recovery is running out of momentum and if there is no further stimulus, the recovery will stall,' he told MarketWatch. 'This uncertainty is pushing the gold price higher.'....Bullion bulls have viewed gold during the coronavirus pandemic as one of the easiest ways to hedge against a host of uncertainty fostered by the public-health disaster that has forced central banks around the world to adopt low-interest-rate policies to limit the harm to businesses....'The odds are stacked in favor of higher gold price in the coming days, especially because the U.S. elections are just around the corner, and investors want to protect themselves from this major risk event,' Aslam said."

Bidenomics Bidenomics: the good the bad and the unknown -The Economist
"When Mr Trump took power in 2017 he hoped to unleash the animal spirits of business by offering bosses a hotline to the Oval Office and slashing red tape and taxes....Mr Biden's economic priority would be to pass a huge 'recovery' bill, worth perhaps $2trn-3trn...This would include short-term money, boosting unemployment insurance and help for state and local governments, which face a budget hole. Mr Biden would also extend grants or loans to small businesses which have not received as much aid as big firms....The recovery bill would also aim to 'build back better' by focusing on some long-term problems for America that have also been Biden priorities for many years. He is keen on a giant, climate-friendly infrastructure boom...He would scrap Mr Trump's restrictions on immigration...And he wants to raise middle-class living standards and social mobility. That means more spending on education, health care and housing and a $15 minimum wage....The real risk of Bidenomics is that his pragmatism will lead him to be insufficiently bold. Sometimes he fails to resolve competing objectives. For example, he rightly supports ladders for social mobility as well as a better safety-net for workers who lose their jobs; his plans range from more affordable housing to free public universities....This lack of boldness also reflects the lack of a fully developed strategy. Mr Biden has a record as a free trader, but he will not remove tariffs quickly and his plan indulges in petty protectionism by, say, insisting that goods are shipped on American vessels....If he wants to renew America's economy and ensure it leads the rich world for decades to come, he will have to be bolder than that. On the threshold of power, he must be more ruthless about his priorities and far-reaching in his vision."

There Have Long Been Too Many 'Have Nots' In the U.S. -Snider/Real Clear Markets
"Yesterday, a guy by the name of Dick Costolo tweeted out the following: 'Me-first capitalists who think you can separate society from business are going to be the first people lined up against the wall and shot in the revolution.'...Mr. Costolo has 1.5 million followers many of whom follow his every tweet with religious-like fervor. The guy was CEO of Twitter between 2010 and 2015. This ain't fringe stuff. The only surprising piece of his deviant twit was that Dick forgot to capitalize its final word: to each good standing Marxist of all varieties, it's the Revolution. This is what we, and Costolo, are really talking about - socialism in some variant form....Why do the mainstream media, multitudes of school districts, nearly every single university, and so many lawyers and politicians sound like exactly the same cultural Marxist? Because later generations of socialists realized Marx was wrong about a fundamental precept....Society gets better and better, the human condition improves beyond anyone's wildest dreams, but that's all the more reprehensible to the hardcore Revolutionary....How dare capitalism solve, and keep solving, the most basic wants and needs which have plagued human existence from time immemorial!....The post-modern Marx which now admits it can keep making things good but, dang it, it just leaves you all empty - and envious - inside, some people rich while others not. It's the proliferation of 'nots' which has made this time different. Without anyone else to offer a scientific explanation for so many, emotion sure can substitute. As really stupid as it all sounds, without enough legitimate growth in primary, secondary, or tertiary industries since August 2007, too many 'nots' for any system, and the constant, absurd, and floundering interference from the state because of this, more and more people are listening to it anyway. Just how many, that's the question."

My assignment for Trump in the next 2 debates -Buchanan/WND
"What happened on that stage in Cleveland? The insults, the interruptions, the name-calling and the yelling became the story of the debate...in which Trump, Biden and moderator Chris Wallace were all complicit....Trump has two debates left to achieve the goals he failed to achieve in Cleveland. He and his campaign need to tie Biden to the repellent elements of the Democratic Party and their radical agenda on remaking an America that the extreme left visibly detests, or to force Biden to repudiate those elements. For Trump to rise into competitive range, Biden must fall, and Trump must appear the necessary and only alternative, even to folks who are not that fond of him. Trump's assignment in the next two debates: Link Biden to the people - and their agenda - in his coalition whom the national majority detests. Make Joe repudiate both. And let Biden's performance expose his own inadequacies. The presidency hinges upon whether Trump can succeed in this. And the next two presidential debates will likely give us the answer."

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Oct 2, 2020


10.2.20 - Gold Gains Amid Stimulus Hopes

Gold last traded at $1,908 an ounce. Silver at $23.90 an ounce

NEWS SUMMARY: Precious metal prices steadied Friday amid rising political and economic uncertainty. U.S. stocks fell after news that President Donald Trump and First Lady Melania Trump tested positive for coronavirus.

Gold gains on hopes for U.S. stimulus -CNBC
"Gold prices jumped over 1% on Thursday to surpass the key $1,900 level on renewed hopes for a U.S. stimulus package that could help ease the economic pain from the coronavirus, while a easing dollar further boosted the safe-haven metal....Investors were eyeing talks between U.S. House Speaker Nancy Pelosi and Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin to reach a deal on the long-awaited COVID-19 relief bill. 'If there's a deal, chances are stimulus will reignite the idea that inflation will move towards the Federal Reserve's target,' which along with the interest rate suppression policy by the Fed are very good catalyst for gold, said Bart Melek, head of commodity strategies at TD Securities. He added, the breakthrough in the psychological barrier of the $1,900 level can further drive the market technically a little higher. The dollar fell to a more than one week low versus rivals, making gold cheaper for holders of other currencies. Meanwhile, U.S. manufacturing activity unexpectedly slowed in September as new orders retreated, while U.S. weekly jobless claims remained at recession levels, further bolstering the metal's safe haven appeal."

government debt Federal Government Concludes Fiscal 2020 With Record Spending -Nextgov
"The federal government's fiscal 2020 year ended September 30th at midnight and federal spending has eclipsed $6 trillion for the first time ever - and that's without data from September, the final month federal officials can obligate annual Congressionally-appropriated funds before they expire....The 2020 budget deficit now stands at $3 trillion through August - also a first, meaning the government has spent $3 trillion more than it has taken in this year. Fiscal 2020 spending has been dominated by health care, entitlements and the military, with the Health and Human Services Department ($1.3 trillion), Social Security Administration ($1.2 trillion) and Defense Department ($690 billion) the top-three spending agencies. While the Treasury has not tabulated the government's COVID-19 spending, the nonprofit, nonpartisan Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget estimates the government has committed or disbursed $2.2 trillion in economic relief....The government's traditional September spending surge will push these totals higher, as civilian and defense agencies obligate the rest of the fiscal 2020 money appropriated by Congress through contracts for various goods and services."

Is Biden's Economic Plan Much Different Than Trump's? -FEE
"If you read presidential candidate Joe Biden's economic plans ('Build Back Better' and 'Made in America'), you get a feeling of deja vu, of having heard it all before: 'America, good. China, bad.' If it was not sprinkled with obligatory 'Trump, bad' quips you might think it was lifted from Trump's program. The leitmotif is: 'I am going to do the same things as Trump, but better.'....In these divided times, it is reassuring that, regardless of their differences, both Trump and Biden, at least on paper, want to improve the economy. But will Biden's Trump-ish plan actually do that? One of Biden's proposals is to Make 'Buy American' Real. Basically, if the federal government is paying for a bridge, the contractor must get its steel, cement, and other materials from American companies. This, according to the plan, should help US companies compete with foreign rivals....Biden talks a lot about public procurement of steel and other construction materials. Yet, steel imports make up less than one percent of what Americans import....Is the Democratic Party ready to make the US a good place for mining, smelting and making steel? Perhaps. But it will be interesting to see how this is received by the left wing of the Democratic Party with their Green New Deals....The whole plan suffers from the arrogant premise that if the government is buying something, it can pressure private companies to support certain political objectives....Can you be for business, mining, and manufacturing in one paragraph, and for big-government labor and environmental policies in another?"

In Joe Biden, the Democrats picked the worst candidate to debate Donald Trump -Prince/Telegraph
"'Will you shut up, man,' Joe Biden whined minutes into the first debate of the US 2020 presidential campaign. It was a lament which highlighted how poorly equipped the Democratic candidate was to take on the force of nature that is President Donald Trump on the debate stage. Having watched the tapes of Mr Trump stalking and menacing Hillary Clinton in the same arena four years ago, the former vice president's campaign team had clearly decided their man's best tactic was to refuse to engage and instead talk directly to voters down the TV lens. His diffidence meant it was left to Chris Wallace, the Fox News host and moderator of the event to provide what little opposition there was to the President....Unable or unwilling to cross swords, a frustrated Mr Biden was reduced to shaking his head sometimes accompanied by an exasperated chuckle. Gone was the twinkly figure who provided some levity in the Obama administration, replaced by a scared, tired man appalled at the dawning realization he was being bested by a man he described twice as a 'clown'. This was not the only insult Mr Biden deployed against President Trump: 'racist,' 'ridiculous' and 'the worst president America has ever had' were just a few of the attack lines he had teed up. But so feeble was the delivery, so anemic the tone, that the punches barely smudged the orange make-up of his foe. In contrast, Mr Trump did not hold back; hardly a surprise; he doesn't have it in him to hold back....Mr Trump debated as he has governed: with an unshakeable confidence which brooks no opposition....the Democratic candidate floundered where almost any of his former rivals for the nomination would have flourished...Unfortunately for the Democrats, they have lumbered themselves with Sleepy Joe Biden."

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Oct 1, 2020


10.1.20 - Do NYT Writers Believe Their Headlines?

Gold last traded at $1,908 an ounce. Silver at $23.90 an ounce

NEWS SUMMARY: Precious metal prices rose sharply Thursday on bargain hunting and a weaker dollar. U.S. stocks climbed as investors monitored lawmakers' negotiations on further fiscal stimulus.

The Real Cost of Government Protection -Bonner/Rogue Economics
"Look around you. Have you ever seen so many fearful people? People who have lost courage"¦ lost faith"¦ and lost their minds. They are willing to be frisked every time they get on an airplane"¦ as protection against the almost negligible chance that someone will want to blow it up. Even young, healthy people are willing to submit to house arrest"¦ rather than face the risk of getting sick. They are afraid that the 'planet is angry' and that it will be consumed by the fires of Hell unless we stop using fossil fuels. Do civilized adults need the government to tell them how to protect themselves from a virus? The New York Times reluctantly admits that they don''t: 'Vilified Early Over Lax Virus Strategy, Sweden Seems to Have Scourge Controlled'. Sweden let people decide for themselves. Those who were afraid of the virus could stay at home. Those who were not could go about their business. The U.S., meanwhile, panicked, shutting down large parts of the economy (U.S. second-quarter GDP fell 31%!). But the death rate for both countries was about the same. And now, Sweden appears to be way ahead of the game, with very few new cases. Aging Americans see a future full of bogeymen. And they want the government to protect them. But the protection comes at a cost...Their heavy-handed attempts to hold off the virus crippled the economy"¦ and resulted in collateral damage - depression, suicide, stunted careers, etc. - which will be tallied later. But what concerns us here at the Diary is the cost of protecting against the financial future. That is where the real risk lies. Having bent and distorted the economy for its own benefit, the Baby Boomer elite now faces a reckoning. In an effort to protect itself from the risks of old age, it has promised itself health and pension benefits, unfunded, worth over $200 trillion. It would be impossible to keep up with those obligations, even with a healthy economy."

gold chart Gold's Record High Gives New Life to Dollar Doomsayers -Wallace/Wall Street Journal
"Can gold keep going? This year ranks as one of the best on record for investors in the precious metal, with futures prices up almost 24% for 2020 after hitting an all-time high in August...The events of this year are giving new life to those who insist the arc of financial history points toward the inevitable debasement of currencies like the dollar. Bullish investors contend that trend means new highs for gold are in store. Gold has been a prime beneficiary of the Federal Reserve's determination to leave borrowing costs at historically low levels to spur the economy after the shock of Covid-19. Chairman Jerome Powell formalized that stance in August, saying the central bank had dropped its longstanding practice of pre-emptively raising rates to head off higher inflation....In such an environment, money managers say the precious metal has lived up to its status as a haven, shielding investors in a year when stocks have been racked by volatility. '[Gold] has thousands of years of a track record of offering some form of protection against the unexpected,' said George Milling-Stanley, chief gold strategist at State Street Global Advisors. 'That's worth having.'....The price would have to climb another 43% from its late-August level, crossing $2,800 an ounce, to top its peak from early 1980, after adjusting for rising consumer prices in the four decades since then...Gold prices crested at $850 in the London market on Jan. 21, 1980. That remains their all-time high in inflation-adjusted terms....The greenback's role as the world's reserve currency is being called into question by some gold bulls, including analysts at Goldman Sachs Group. Gold is the currency of last resort, especially when governments are debasing fiat currencies and pushing real interest rates to record lows, the analysts wrote in July....Investors like Michael Kelly, global head of multiasset at PineBridge Investments, are on the hunt for other assets that zig when stocks zag. 'This is crystal clear: Financial repression is coming even to the U.S. and the U.K. and there will be negative real rates as far as the eye can see,' Mr. Kelly said. 'That supercharges gold.' Gold has done a good job at smoothing out returns in recent decades, according to Hilary Till, principal at Premia Research LLC, who thinks money managers should consider investing in bullion as a counterweight to stocks."

Do New York Times Headline Writers Believe Their Headlines? -Tamny/AIER
"Until March of 2020, Cafe Phillip in Washington, D.C. was booming...Then came the political panic related to the coronavirus. Even though there were no indications from the virus's origin, or Asia more broadly, that it was terribly lethal, U.S. politicians panicked. In their panic they quite literally chose to fight the virus with strict lockdowns that resulted in soaring unemployment, bankruptcy, and economic desperation. It would be hard to imagine a more wrongheaded approach to a health threat. Think about it. Economic growth has historically produced the resources for scientists and doctors that have made victories over viruses possible. Yet in their panic, politicians on the local, state and national levels forced the very contraction that would logically shrink economic resources, only to follow up with the extraction of trillions from the private economy in order to throw money at the horrendous problems they created....Panicked politicians who will never miss a meal or a paycheck decided we the people couldn't be trusted to go to work. We might spread the virus. Lockdowns were instituted, supposedly for our own good. Sorry, but economic growth is what's for our own good. It doesn't just produce resources for those eager to find cures for viruses that make us ill or kill us, economic growth also frees us to quarantine or shelter-in-place if we feel some kind of virus threatens us....Back to Cafe Phillip, to walk in nowadays is to see formerly energized employees with forlorn looks on their faces, mostly immobile as they wait for customers. It's a far cry from what it used to be...It's all a sickening reminder of how quickly politicians can wreck things. How they can thoughtlessly break things. They're way too powerful on all levels....The same New York Times reporting that over 40% of U.S. virus deaths have happened in nursing homes has also projected that over 285 million of the world's inhabitants are rushing toward starvation. Yes, you read that right. The Times won't say it directly, but the panicked political reaction to the virus that revealed itself in contraction-inducing lockdowns and other limits on activity has parts of the world's economy collapsing, and as a consequence hundreds of millions rushing back into poverty, starvation and death. Poverty is easily the biggest killer man has ever known. Nothing else comes close. This would ideally get more attention from the Times. Consider the newspaper's above-the-fold headline from last Monday: 'A Nation's Anguish As Deaths Near 200,000.' Really? One senses the headline writers don't even believe this. When old people die it's sad, and sometimes very sad. But it's rarely - if ever- a tragedy. Figure that death from old age is a very modern concept born of healthcare advances made possible by the very economic growth that politicians mindlessly snuffed out in their panic....It's sad when we lose our grandparents and old people more broadly, but it's tragic to read of people starving, and heart-wrenching to contemplate formerly productive workers sitting, waiting for customers; increasingly aware that what puts a roof over their heads will no longer. Proportion New York Times, proportion."

Millennials Are Trying To Shake The Stigma Of Moving Back In With Their Parents -BuzzFeed
"An analysis of monthly US Census data by the Pew Research Center reveals that a majority of young adults (ages 18 to 29) are now living with their parents - surpassing a record set during the Great Depression. These numbers have only increased as lockdown has ground on: The Pew poll says that 47% of young adults were living with at least one parent in February; that number climbed to 52% in July....I moved back in with my parents in April. As the pandemic spread, my world shrank. I saw the industries that sustained me start to erode, and I worried for my long-term financial standing. The coziness and solitude of my apartment curdled into a stale-aired echo chamber that only boomed with bad news. Then there was the fear for my parents, well into their seventies....At 38 years old, I was too old for that; wouldn't it seem sad? Moving home was for kids just out of college, who needed help as they launched into their own lives. I had my own life. Then, one afternoon, as I prepared yet another solitary meal, the news in the background announcing another milestone in deaths, my heart started jackhammering...The air cinched out of my throat. A panic attack. A clear sign I couldn't keep on keeping on alone. I called my mother. I asked if I could come home....Christie Kederian, a psychologist and licensed marriage and family therapist, said that, as older millennials have been moving back with their families, 'the previous notion of aiming to own a home by 30 and be independent has been replaced with survival mode.' Though 'survival mode' casts a grim image, Kederian suggests that there's a valuable opportunity: 'Our westernized society puts independence on a pedestal "¦ this new trend [can] teach millennials that it's OK to ask for help, to let go of the pressure to have your life look better on Instagram than it feels in real life, and to rid themselves of the microwave mentality that everything you want to happen in your life, all the dreams you want to achieve, have to happen before you're 40.'....I'm learning to let go of the expectations I had for myself before I showed up on my mother's front porch with a suitcase and a hope that this would all be temporary...My desires are smaller now: that I can keep everyone close to me safe and well; that I will not take my dinners alone, night after night. They may not be grand, but they must be enough."

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Sept 30, 2020


9.30.20 - Startling News About Trump's Economy

Gold last traded at $1,892 an ounce. Silver at $23.55 an ounce

NEWS SUMMARY: Precious metal prices steadied Wednesday amid rising uncertainty and a falling dollar. U.S. stocks rose as investors cheered growing hopes that politicians might reach a new $2 trillion coronavirus bailout agreement.

UBS says you should buy gold now -CNBC
"Investors should be putting their money in gold now, as it represents a 'very good hedge' ahead of risk events such as the U.S. election, UBS Global Wealth Management told CNBC. 'We like gold, because we think that gold is likely to actually hit about $2,000 per ounce by the end of the year,' according to Kelvin Tay, the firm's regional chief investment officer, on Tuesday. 'And gold has certain hedges to it,' Tay said. 'In (the) event of uncertainty over the U.S. election and the Covid-19 pandemic, gold is a very, very good hedge. And its recent weakness represents a great entry point for investors,' he added, speaking to CNBC's 'Squawk Box.'....The precious metal is also attractive due to the low interest rate environment, Tay pointed out. If interest rates stay low as the Fed has indicated, the opportunity cost of holding gold - a non-yielding asset - will be 'quite low,' he added. That's because investors are not forgoing interest that would be otherwise earned in yielding assets."

business U.S. Retail Bankruptcies, Store Closures Hit Record in First Half -Wall Street Journal
"Retail bankruptcies, liquidations and store closings in the U.S. reached records in the first half of 2020 as the Covid-19 pandemic accelerated industry changes, particularly the shift to online shopping, according to a report. In the first six months, 18 retailers filed for chapter 11 protection, mostly concentrated in apparel and footwear, home furnishings, grocery and department stores...They include department-store operators Neiman Marcus Group Ltd., J.C. Penney Co. and Stage Stores Inc., home-goods retailers Pier 1 Imports Inc. and Tuesday Morning Corp. and vitamin seller GNC Holdings Inc. From July through mid-August, 11 more retailers filed, including apparel retailers Lucky Brand Dungarees LLC, Brooks Brothers Inc., Ann Taylor parent Ascena Retail Group Inc., Stein Mart Inc., and Men's Wearhouse and Jos. A. Bank parent Tailored Brands Inc. This year is on pace to rival 2010, when 48 retailers filed for bankruptcy in the wake of the 2007-09 recession. Retail bankruptcies in 2020 have already surpassed the 22 such filings recorded last year. 'This is almost certainly the worst year in recent history for retail,' said Kyle Sturgeon, a managing partner at Atlanta-based turnaround advisory firm Meru LLC. Government-mandated store closures and social-distancing measures have intensified challenges that were facing bricks-and-mortar retailers before the pandemic....'I don't think it's going to stop anytime soon,' said Andy Graiser, co-president of commercial real-estate advisory firm A&G Real Estate Partners, who advises Tailored Brands, Ascena, Neiman Marcus and Stein Mart, among others....Shaky companies that make it through the holiday season might survive only to encounter landlords that had agreed to rent deferrals but now want payment in full. 'That's a huge bubble that is going to burst,' Mr. Graiser said."

The startling news about Trump's economy that mainstream media ignored -Puzder/Fox Business
"Released two weeks ago, the Census Bureau's report on 'Income and Poverty in the United States' for 2019 clearly shows that, pre-pandemic, President Trump's economic success blew past that of any other presidency. First, the Census Bureau reported that real median household income grew to $68,703 in 2019, an impressive 6.8% increase over 2018. It was the largest one-year increase in median income on record going back to 1967. It was also 45 percent more growth in a single year ($4,379) than Obama/Biden produced in their entire 8 years in office ($3,021). As was the case throughout Trump's first three years, the economic benefits were widespread. While the overall growth rate was 6.8%, real median income grew by an even greater 7.9% for Black Americans, 7.1% for Hispanic Americans, and 10.6% for Asian Americans. All record highs as were the new income levels for each of these groups....As incomes grew in 2019, the poverty rate plummeted 1.3 percentage points to a 60 year low of 10.5%. This was the largest reduction in poverty in over 50 years. It lifted over 4.1 million people out of poverty, the largest yearly decrease since 1966. Just for comparison purposes, over the Obama/Biden era, the number of people living in poverty increased by 787,000....The Census Bureau's Income and Poverty report for 2019 has set a new standard by which to measure economic success once the pandemic ends. President Trump has promised that the economy will exceed even the impressive results we saw in 2019 should he be re-elected. Given those results, we have every reason to believe him."

Why Nobody Cares Much about Trump's Taxes -National Review
"At Fox News, Howard Kurtz argues that the New York Times report on Donald Trump's taxes will affect the election 'barely at all.' 'These are eye-popping revelations, but most people won't wade through the details, which are complicated as hell. And even the Times doesn't claim that Trump broke any laws. He took advantage of a labrynth [sic] of legal deductions that are available to people who traffic in real estate and investments - unfairly, in my view, but that's the system approved by Congress.'....Americans are really quite tolerant of petty personal corruption in tax matters. Our tax code is complex and filled with giveaways to various political constituencies, and none of us is shocked to learn that a bartender or a waitress does not report 100 percent of cash tips for tax purposes. Is that tax fraud? Of course it is. Is it a crime? Yes. Does anybody care? No. But, for comparison, the tax avoidance attributed to Trump is, as far as I can tell, entirely legal. And let's not pretend that the Democrats are against tax giveaways to rich people...The stimulus measure that Trump exploited was in no small part a Joe Biden production. There are all sorts of ways around this stuff. The truth is that almost no one in either party wants to simplify the tax code or - here is the perverse part - to make it more effective."

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Sept 29, 2020


9.29.20 - Is It Insane to Start a Business During Coronavirus?

Gold last traded at $1,895 an ounce. Silver at $24.24 an ounce.

NEWS SUMMARY: Precious metal prices rose Tuesday on bargain-hunting and a weaker dollar. U.S. stocks fell on downbeat airline news and an uptick in new U.S. coronavirus cases.

Could Gold Be Gearing Up For A Major Rally? -OilPrice.com
"Just before the COVID-19 collapse in the markets hit near February 25, 2020, Gold started a double-dip move after reaching $1,692 on February 24. First, Gold dipped from $1,692 to $1,564, then recovered to new highs ($1,704.50) on March 10, 2020. Then, as the deeper COVID-19 selling continued, Gold prices dipped again - this time targeting a low level of $1,450.90. What we found interesting is how quickly Gold prices recovered and broke to even higher price levels after this deep selling. Our belief is that when a crisis event first hits, which we sometimes call the 'shock-wave', all assets take a beating - including Gold and Silver. This is the event where traders and investors pull everything to CASH (closing positions). Then, as the shock-wave ends, traders re-evaluate the price levels of assets to determine how they want to deploy their capital. Our belief that this DIP or double-dip pattern in Gold because of crisis events presents a very solid opportunity for skilled traders to add-to existing positions or strategically target shorter-term upside price swings in precious metals....The question for gold traders right now is 'does the $1,885 level hold as support or will gold break lower trying to fund support?'. My researchers and I believe the current bottom in Gold is set up and the $1,885 price will hold as support. We also believe the next move higher will prompt a rally targeting levels near $2,250. Watch for the momentum base to continue to form near $1,885 before the breakout rally trend in Gold starts. Once it breaks the $2,035 level, it should start to rally upward very quickly."

debate Tonight's Debate Has "All The Makings Of A Classic To Rival The Rumble In The Jungle" -Zero Hedge
"First and foremost today, markets will be focusing on the first presidential election debate between Donald Trump and Joe Biden (at 9p EDT). This has all the makings of a classic to rival The Rumble in the Jungle between Foreman and Ali. Except in this case, almost everyone will be watching what they believe might be The Bungle in the (media) Jungle. Indeed, supporters of both candidates will be transformed into nervous parents at an expensive Ivy League prep school on the evening of their very young child's first-ever school play: rictus smiles and silent prayers as the curtain rises that their special one makes them proud rather than having a tantrum, forgetting their lines, falling asleep, or generally humiliating themselves. After all, neither man has a reputation for eloquence, remaining calm at all times, clearly getting their point across to neutrals, or remaining gaffe free. The expectations for Biden have been set extremely low - but he has been doing debates for 50 years, so there is bound to be some deep muscle memory there along with the 'I am the guy who"¦' and 'C'mon man!' and 'Malarkey' shtick. Trump has only had a few rounds of real debate in his life: against Clinton in 2016 and against his Republican rivals prior to that, and the shock jock routine is hardly new at this point. We already know what the debate topics will be...Yet that does not mean we won't be hearing about whatever each candidate feels will floor his opponent best, for example: Ukraine; Russia; China; problematic children; things said to or about soldiers; things said or done about the coronavirus; the Supreme Court; tax - and who wrote the tax code; a failure to provide decent healthcare options to millions of Americans; election fraud. Who said the country was divided, eh? Anyway world, sit yourself down, get your popcorn in, and let the spectacle unfold."

America on edge as unrest rises -Axios
"Rarely have national security officials, governors, tech CEOs and activists agreed as broadly and fervently as they do about the possibility of historic civil unrest in America. The ingredients are clear for all to see - epic fights over racism, abortion, elections, the virus and policing, stirred by misinformation and calls to action on social media, at a time of stress over the pandemic. Look across America this week: Portland, Oregon - already suffering from fires and protests - is bracing for a showdown today between right and left wing activists...President Trump was booed - with chants of 'Vote him out!' ' as he paid respects to Justice Ruth Bader Ginsburg on the Supreme Court steps....For the third night in a row, a revived racial-justice movement took to streets across the country to protest the lack of charges against police in the death of Breonna Taylor in Louisville. CNN showed demonstrations from L.A. to Sacramento to Philadelphia to Boston. The bottom line: Everyone from Facebook to YouTube to the U.S. military is taking precautions for post-election civil unrest exploding."

Is It Insane to Start a Business During Coronavirus? Millions of Americans Don't Think So. -Wall Street Journal
"The pandemic forced hundreds of thousands of small businesses to close. For Madison Schneider, it was a good time to start a new one. The 22-year-old in Haviland, Kan., opened Lela's Bakery and Coffeehouse on Sept. 12, naming it after her grandmother...Americans are starting new businesses at the fastest rate in more than a decade...Applications for the employer identification numbers that entrepreneurs need to start a business have passed 3.2 million so far this year, compared with 2.7 million at the same point in 2019, according to the U.S. Census Bureau. That group includes gig-economy workers and other independent contractors who may have struck out on their own after being laid off....'This pandemic is actually inducing a surge in employer business startups that takes us back to the days before the decline in the Great Recession,' said John Haltiwanger, an economist at the University of Maryland who studies the data. Many of these won't pan out. More than half of new employer businesses fail within five years, he said....The pace of new launches comes amid a wave of business closures, which created an unusually large void for new entrants to fill. The U.S. lost more businesses during the first three months of the crisis than it normally does in an entire year, said Steven Hamilton, an economist at George Washington University."

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Sept 25, 2020


9.25.20 - Fake Money Will Be the Cause of Dollar's Death

Gold last traded at $1,868 an ounce. Silver at $23.18 an ounce.

NEWS SUMMARY: Gold prices see pullback Friday on a stronger U.S. dollar. Stocks wavered as worries grow over the economic outlook, S&P and Dow on track for four-week losing streak.

Gold, silver bulls working to stabilize prices -Kitco
"Gold prices prices are trading near their session highs at midday, suggesting the bulls are working hard to stabilize their markets. A rallying U.S. dollar index recently that hit a two-month high overnight....Not quite half-way through the 'rough waters' period (September and October) for the stock market, it seems odds do not favor a strong recovery to new record highs in the U.S. stock indexes. It's also a period when North Americans and Europeans will be staying inside more as colder weather approaches, with the potential for new Covid restrictions on businesses crimping their revenues. And there is no new financial stimulus package for Americans in sight. Throw in the element of the high potential for a disputed and even protracted U.S. presidential election result (President Trump said Wednesday the presidential election in November will likely be decided by the Supreme Court), and all of the above should favor trader/investor demand safe-haven assets like gold, silver, the U.S. dollar and U.S. Treasuries."

powell Fake Money Will Be the Cause of Death for the U.S. Dollar -Bonner/Rogue Economics
"No pure-paper money has ever lasted for an entire credit cycle. The dollar will not be the first to rest among the shades. In the meantime, we will watch its inevitable decline and fall - probably the biggest financial story of the next 10 years. Because down with the dollar comes the whole U.S. capital structure - stocks, bonds, debt, credit, pensions, insurance payouts, Social Security, Medicare, the empire"¦ the whole shebang. But we are not at the end of this story. We are only at the beginning of the end. Between the coronavirus pandemic, the debt, the Federal Reserve's falsification of interest rates, the fake dollar, and the giveaways, the U.S. economy may already be in a perpetual recession. And the feds are determined to fight it with printing-press money....The feds only have one quack medicine - printing-press money. And they're going to stick with it, whether it works or not. At first, the extra money has little effect. Fearful of layoffs and bankruptcies, people hoard cash. That is what is happening now. People are not spending their money, they're hoarding it....This is what happens in the first stage of the last stage....For the first 189 years of the Republic, the economy grew strongly, with not even a hint of the magic elixir (setting aside the War Between the States, when both sides did print money"¦ and subsequently fell into recession). It wasn't until 1999 - more than 200 years after the dollar was introduced - that the Fed began administering large doses of fake money. And then, it added $6.4 trillion to its balance sheet"¦ as growth rates fell. Fake money is the poison that will eventually put the dollar in its grave."

Are Your Retirement Savings in the Government's Crosshairs? -American Consequences
"America's national debt has soared more than $4 trillion this year alone. It now totals $26.7 trillion. That's $81,000 for every man, woman, and child. It's an astronomically large figure. And it could be paid off tomorrow if the U.S. government raided one of the biggest pools of capital on earth...Right now, Uncle Sam can get all the money he requires with a few keystrokes at the Federal Reserve....The U.S. dollar is in the last inning or two of its dominance of the global financial system...There may come a time - sooner than you think - that the dollar falters....America's total unfunded liabilities stand at $154 trillion. Faced with a still-escalating debt burden, the U.S. government might then go 'where the money is' - to paraphrase 1930s bank robber Willie Sutton, when asked why he robbed banks. One very obvious destination: the $28.7 trillion in Americans' retirement assets, including around $8.3 trillion in individual retirement account ('IRAs') and in employer-sponsored 401(k) plans, according to the Investment Company Institute. It wouldn't be difficult for the U.S. government to gets its hands on your retirement assets. We can hope that this never happens. But it's far better to be prepared....What can you do to protect yourself? ....One way to keep your retirement assets away from Uncle Sam is to buy silver, gold, and other precious metals."

It's Time to Celebrate Historic Middle East Peace Agreement -Wicker/Vicksburg Post
"It is always an important day when the Israeli Prime Minister visits our nation's capital, but his arrival at the White House on September 15 was something truly momentous. Hosted by President Trump, the Prime Minister signed a historic peace deal with leaders from two Arab nations - the United Arab Emirates (UAE) and Bahrain. This agreement, known as the Abraham Accords, is the first Arab-Israeli peace deal to be signed in more than 25 years. It is especially significant given that only two Arab countries had previously recognized the Jewish state. This agreement strengthens Israel's standing among Arab nations and gives Israel new economic partners in the region. This landmark achievement makes possible a new era of Arab-Israeli cooperation. It paves the way for other countries, like Saudi Arabia and Oman, to follow suit and recognize Israel. Such a development would have been impossible to imagine a generation ago, when memories of the Six-Day War and Yom Kippur War were still fresh. In both conflicts, Israel was surrounded by enemies but emerged victorious....President Trump deserves praise for bucking the conventional wisdom and brokering this deal. For decades, many analysts argued that Israel would have to strike a deal with Palestinian leaders before peace could be achieved in the region....President Trump brought a fresh approach to the situation. Instead of undermining Israel, he boosted Israel by moving the American Embassy to Jerusalem and recognizing the Golan Heights as Israeli territory. These actions strengthened Israel's position and sent a message that the Jewish state was not going anywhere. This signal encouraged the UAE and Bahrain to come to the table and negotiate a durable peace."

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Sept 24, 2020


9.24.20 - JPMorgan to pay almost $1 billion fine

Gold last traded at $1,865 an ounce. Silver at $23.05 an ounce.

NEWS SUMMARY: Precious metal prices rebounded Thursday despite a firmer dollar. U.S. stocks gyrated as traders weighed the latest batch of economic data and tech tried to recover from its recent losses.

JPMorgan to pay almost $1 billion fine for manipulation of metal and Treasuries markets -CNBC
"JPMorgan Chase is close to paying almost $1 billion to resolve government investigations into the alleged manipulation of metal and Treasurys markets, according to a person with knowledge of the matter. A settlement between New York-based JPMorgan and several U.S. agencies could come as soon as this week, according to Bloomberg...A penalty of that size would be a record for spoofing, which is when sophisticated traders flood markets with orders that they have no intention of actually executing. The practice was banned after the 2008 financial crisis and regulators have made it a priority to stamp out. While JPMorgan may be forced to admit wrongdoing in the settlement, the deal isn't expected to result in business restrictions on other areas of the firm. The case was revealed in September 2019 when a 14-count criminal indictment against three current or former JPMorgan employees, including the global head of base and precious metals trading, was unsealed. The indictment alleges the traders, along with eight unnamed co-conspirators who worked at JPMorgan offices in New York, London and Singapore, participated in a racketeering conspiracy in connection with a multiyear scheme to manipulate the precious metals markets and defraud customers....They each were charged with one count of conspiracy under the RICO Act, which historically has been used in mafia prosecutions, as well as other federal crimes in connection with manipulating precious metals futures markets."

liberty Liberty or Lockdown -Tucker/AIER
"For most Americans, the Covid-19 lockdown was our first experience in a full denial of freedom. Businesses forced closed. Schools, padlocked. Church, same. Theaters, dead. We were told to stay home, risking fines if we leave and jail if we don't pay. We couldn't travel. Separated from loved ones. This job is essential, this one is not. This surgery is cancelled, this one is not. You want a visitor from abroad? Forget it. The neighboring state? Only with a two-week quarantine....We were forced to spend day after day under effective house arrest, spinning aimlessly in this small and unwelcome world of captivity, wondering about big things previously unconsidered: why has this happened to me, what has gone wrong, why am I here, when will it end, what are my goals, what is the purpose of my life?....I've been writing about pandemics and liberty for 15 years. I knew from 2005 that there were plans in place for mass quarantines. I knew from 2006 that there were fanatics out there who imagined that they could use the power of the state to suppress a virus by suppressing our freedoms. The plans were on the shelf and I wrote to warn that it was conceptually possible. Even so, I really never imagined that such would be tried. Why and how did it happen?....The politicians panicked. They feared being blamed for any and all deaths from this one virus while forgetting other ailments. The Covid-19 fear drove out every other consideration. It was madness but it was only supposed to last a couple of weeks until it turned out to last six months and longer. Why didn't we revolt? Part of the reason was that most of us were in shock. We had to believe that there was some good reason, some rationale, for these policies. But as the weeks and months rolled on, the terrible truth began to dawn on more people. This was all for naught. We destroyed the country, and much of the world, and everything people had worked hard for centuries to build, to try out something that had never been tried before. It didn't work. The virus took its own path. And today we are left with this wreckage. As I type today (September 1, 2020), I'm feeling ever vindicated by the research, and ever more optimistic that we are going to get through this, the world will open up again, and we can begin the rebuilding. The work that is before us is not only national, institutional, and economic. It is also psychological. Our lives have been shattered in incredible ways....How do we come back from this? By reflecting, learning, and acting on the promise of renewal. It can happen, but only once we fully come to terms with the stark choice between liberty and lockdown. Liberty is right and it works. Lockdown is wrong and it does not. It's not complex but it takes courage and determination to live out that principle. The United States was founded on the principle of liberty as a right. We must reclaim that. We must work to take away lockdown discretionary power from our leaders. And we must reclaim confidence and hope in the future."

Fed Preparing To Deposit "Digital Dollars" Directly To "Each American" -Zero Hedge
"Over the past decade, the one common theme despite the political upheaval and growing social and geopolitical instability, was that the market would keep marching higher and the Fed would continue injecting liquidity into the system. The second common theme is that despite sparking unprecedented asset price inflation, prices as measured across the broader economy - using the flawed CPI metric and certainly stagnant worker wages - would remain subdued. The Fed's failure to reach its inflation target - which prompted the US central bank to radically overhaul its monetary dogma last month and unveil Flexible Average Inflation Targeting (or FAIT) whereby the Fed will allow inflation to run hot without hiking rates....In short, ever since the Fed launched QE and NIRP, it has been making the situation it has been trying to 'fix' even worse while blowing the biggest asset price bubble in history....And yet, the lament is that even as the economy was desperately in need of a massive liquidity tsunami, the funds created by the Fed and Treasury did not make their way to those who need them the most: end consumers....Two former Fed officials: Simon Potter, who led the Federal Reserve Bank of New York's markets group i.e., he was the head of the Fed's Plunge Protection Team for years, and Julia Coronado, who spent eight years as an economist for the Fed's Board of Governors...propose creating a monetary tool that they call recession insurance bonds, which draw on some of the advances in digital payments, which will be wired instantly to Americans. As Coronado explained the details, Congress would grant the Fed an additional tool for providing support - say, a percent of GDP to households in a recession...The Fed would then activate the securities and deposit the funds digitally in households' apps....This morning, as if to confirm our speculation of what comes next, Cleveland Fed president Loretta Mester delivered a speech to the Chicago Payment Symposium titled 'Payments and the Pandemic'...And in the shocking punchline reveals that legislation has proposed that each American have an account at the Fed in which digital dollars could be deposited, as liabilities of the Federal Reserve Banks, which could be used for emergency payments.'...The Fed would then be able to scrap 'anonymous' physical currency entirely, and track every single banknote from its 'creation' all though the various transactions that take place during its lifetime....Absent a massive burst of inflation in the coming years which inflates away the hundreds of trillions in federal debt, the unprecedented debt tsunami that is coming would mean the end to the American way of life as we know it."

Stock market 'great speculation,' save cash -Diller/CNBC
"Billionaire media mogul Barry Diller on Tuesday urged investors to maintain sizable cash positions following the stock market's robust rally from coronavirus-induced lows in late March. 'Personally, and professionally, every nickel you can, keep it ... wherever it's banked,' the chairman of both Expedia and digital media group IAC said on CNBC's 'Squawk Box.'....'I think the market right now is a great speculation, I would stay home.' Diller is far from the first to express skepticism about the stock market's pandemic recovery....Some, such as billionaire investor Michael Novogratz, have suggested the pullback represents the end of a 'speculative frenzy.'....Should the former vice president defeat Trump, Diller said he expects there to be an initial 'downdraft' in the stock market as Wall Street braces for potentially higher taxes both on corporations and capital gains in a Biden administration."

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Sept 23, 2020


9.23.20 - Gold May Hit Record Before Year-End

Gold last traded at $1,858 an ounce. Silver at $22.69 an ounce.

NEWS SUMMARY: Precious metal prices fell to 2-month lows Wednesday on profit-taking and a firmer dollar; offering a excellent buy-the-dip opportunity. U.S. stocks extended losses, led by big tech stocks, with the major indexes down between 4% - 6.9% so far in September.

Gold May Hit Record Before Year-End on U.S. Election Risk -Citi/Bloomberg
"Gold could hit a record before the year-end, aided in part by the risks surrounding the U.S. presidential election, according to Citigroup Inc. Uncertainty over the contest and delays about the outcome may 'be under-appreciated by precious metals markets,' analysts including Aakash Doshi said in a quarterly commodities outlook. The bank's forecast implies a surge of more than $200 for bullion futures from current levels. Gold rallied to an all-time high last month as investors sought havens amid the coronavirus pandemic, but prices have slipped back since then. Citi's outlook reflects rising investor concern about the battle for the White House that pits incumbent Donald Trump against challenger Joe Biden. The already complex race has acquired added tension with Trump's plan to speedily replace the late Justice Ruth Bader Ginsburg on the U.S. Supreme Court. The election 'could be an extraordinary catalyst for gold prices and volatility skew late in the fourth quarter, even though historically there is no clear pattern for gold trading or price volatility into and after U.S. elections,' Citi said,. 'That is one reason why we expect gold prices to hit fresh records before year-end.'"

stimulus After the Stimulus Binge, Brace for a Crash -Tuccille/Reason
"As anybody who has ever snorted a few lines of white powder to enhance an evening knows, there is a price to be paid for that artificial energy. The short-term boost is followed by a crash of longer duration. Well, America, get ready for a hell of a hangover. According to the Congressional Budget Office (CBO), the federal government's recent stimulus spending - intended to offset the economic distress caused by voluntary social distancing and, especially, by mandatory lockdowns - is bound to be followed by an epic crash. In a report published September 18, the CBO looks at the impact of four federal laws that are supposed to reduce the pain of social distancing as well as forced business closures and resulting job losses....By increasing debt as a percentage of GDP, the legislation is expected to raise borrowing costs, lower economic output, and reduce national income in the longer term....'The increases in federal expenditures and the reduction in government revenue are being financed almost exclusively by borrowing and will push the federal debt to $30 trillion sometime during 2021,' warned James D. Gwartney, a professor of economics and policy sciences at Florida State University. 'Interest rates will inevitably rise at some point, and the additional interest cost will have to be covered by either higher taxes or money creation. The former will slow future economic growth, while the latter will be inflationary.'....The latest spending binge was irresistible for elected officials who need slight excuse for their compulsive behavior...America got its short-term boost from stimulus checks. We'll have plenty of opportunity to decide in the years to come whether it was worth the inevitable comedown."

Covid-19 vaccine resistance grows -Axios-Ipsos Poll
"The share of Americans eager to try a first-generation coronavirus vaccine dropped significantly in the latest installment of the Axios-Ipsos Coronavirus Index...As the U.S. reaches a milestone of 200,000 deaths, this underscores the risks of politicizing the virus and its treatments. The trend is taking place among Republicans as well as Democrats. It's another warning of the potential difficulties health authorities will face in convincing enough Americans that a vaccine is safe and effective....Americans don't see the vaccine as a silver bullet right now....Only 9% now say they're 'very likely' to take the first-generation vaccine, down from 17% in August; 33% say they're 'not at all likely' to take it, up from 26%....13% would try to get it immediately; 16% would get it after a few weeks, 18% said they'd likely wait a year or more and 23% said they wouldn't get it at all."

Older people have become younger -UofJ Research
"The functional ability of older people is nowadays better when it is compared to that of people at the same age three decades ago. This was observed in a study conducted at the Faculty of Sport and Health Sciences at the University of Jyvaskyla, Finland. The study compared the physical and cognitive performance of people nowadays between the ages of 75 and 80 with that of the same-aged people in the 1990s. 'Performance-based measurements describe how older people manage in their daily life, and at the same time, the measurements reflect one's functional age,' says the principal investigator of the study, Professor Taina Rantanen. Among men and women between the ages of 75 and 80, muscle strength, walking speed, reaction speed, verbal fluency, reasoning and working memory are nowadays significantly better than they were in people at the same age born earlier. In lung function tests, however, differences between cohorts were not observed. 'Higher physical activity and increased body size explained the better walking speed and muscle strength among the later-born cohort,' says doctoral student Kaisa Koivunen, 'whereas the most important underlying factor behind the cohort differences in cognitive performance was longer education.'....The results suggest that increased life expectancy is accompanied by an increased number of years lived with good functional ability in later life. The observation can be explained by slower rate-of-change with increasing age, a higher lifetime maximum in physical performance, or a combination of the two....'The results suggest that our understanding of older age is old-fashioned. From an aging researcher's point of view, more years are added to midlife, and not so much to the utmost end of life."

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Sept 22, 2020


9.22.20 - Covid Upends Middle-Class Families

Gold last traded at $1,906 an ounce. Silver at $24.47 an ounce.

NEWS SUMMARY: Precious metal prices steadied Tuesday following short-term profit-taking and a firmer dollar. U.S. stocks traded mostly lower despite upbeat tech news and ongoing support statements from the Fed.

Generational buying opportunity in gold and silver? -FX Street
"We at Elliott Wave Forecast recently hosted a Free Seminar. The topic of the seminar was 'Generational Buying Opportunity in Gold and Silver?'. We analyze and talk about the outlook of Gold, Silver, and Miners. In the seminar, we explain why the break to all time high in precious metal against US Dollar is likely not a terminal move and much more upside can be expected in years to come. We also explain why Silver has potential of even more upside due to Gold to Silver Ratio pulling back from all-time high. The monthly chart of the precious metal above suggests more upside expected to reach at least $2970 - $3428 area in coming years. This target is based on the 100% extension from all-time low. It's also the most conservative target assuming a zigzag structure from the all-time low. The rally can see a lot more than this target area if it becomes an impulse."

stocks Investors fasten your seat belt for push to year end -Briefing
"Will it be November or December? That's the question many have on their mind as it relates to the announcement of a COVID vaccine. It's also the question many have on their mind as it relates to knowing the outcome of the presidential election. There is no telling right now what the final answers will be for these huge issues, so investors should probably fasten their seat belts. The remainder of the year could be quite a thrill ride....The S&P 500 is up 3.4% for the year as of this writing. The Nasdaq, however, is up 20.6%. The kicker is that both were up by much larger amounts only a few weeks ago (S&P up 11.1% and Nasdaq up 34.6%) and trading at record highs....The path to a strong earnings rebound has also been paved with the expectation that the arrival of a COVID vaccine will restore economic order. One can't help but wonder, though, if a market trading at 21.7x forward twelve-month earnings hasn't already accounted for this outlook. The rest of this year, which we would all like to forget, has a lot to offer still in terms of potential volatility events. The timing of a COVID vaccine is one such event, which is not to be confused with the possibility of a second wave of the coronavirus before any such vaccine arrives. Other potential volatility events include diplomatic wranglings with China, the loss of upward momentum in the mega-cap stocks, the standoff in Congress regarding another coronavirus relief bill, and what is shaping up to be a divisive presidential election along political, social, and economic lines....In brief, we see a trader's market unfolding over the next several months, as volatility should be elevated."

The 2020 Housing Boom Is A Perilous Economic Signal -Tamny/Forbes
"A recent column by CNN markets reporter, Paul La Monica. He wrote of housing as an 'undeniable bright spot' that's 'holding up' the U.S. economy. La Monica gets it backwards. Housing is consumption...Nothing against putting a roof over one's head, but the simple truth is that housing is not investment. While the act of saving expands the capital base for entrepreneurs eager to change how we do things, the purchase of housing logically shrinks it....So what's driving the economy-sapping rush into consumption over investment? An obvious clue would be the dollar. The dollar is weak. When it's in decline there's a natural rush into the consumption of hard assets least vulnerable to the dollar's decline....We're scarily seeing a repeat of the 1970s and 2000s when a falling dollar made housing the top asset class. Worse is that top realty executives are starting to exhibit hubris. Recently one exulted that housing supply at present is like the supply of 'toilet paper' back when the lockdowns began. Oh dear"¦.Those in the realty business mistakenly believe that housing consumption drives the economy. So does La Monica. Both are incorrect....Housing's exuberance is a perilous sign, not a positive one."

No Job, Loads of Debt: Covid Upends Middle-Class Family Finances -Wall Street Journal
"Millions of Americans have lost jobs during a pandemic that kept restaurants, shops and public institutions closed for months and hit the travel industry hard. While lower-wage workers have borne much of the brunt, the crisis is wreaking a particular kind of havoc on the debt-laden middle class....The coronavirus has spared few industries and expanded unemployment benefits designed to replace the average American income didn't cover all the lost pay of higher-earning workers, especially in or near expensive cities. The extra $600 weekly payments expired in July, putting them even further behind. 'What I see happening here is a core assault on successful college-educated families, which are the new breed of middle-class American families,' said Anthony Carnevale, director of the Georgetown University Center on Education and the Workforce. 'There's a professional workforce that's getting slammed.' Roughly six months into the pandemic, many lenders that let borrowers skip monthly payments now expect to get paid again. They have set aside billions of dollars to cover potential losses on soured consumer loans - an acknowledgment that America's decadelong debt binge has come to an end....'The pain so far in the economy has largely been at the lower end of the pay scale,' said Discover Financial Services Chief Executive Roger Hochschild, adding that many of 'the white-collar layoffs are still to come.'....Postings for jobs with salaries over $100,000 were down 19% in August from April, while postings for all other salary categories increased, according to job-search site ZipRecruiter Inc....America's biggest banks have indicated they are preparing for a protracted downturn to hurt businesses in industries that weren't immediately affected by shutdowns....Many people who have jobs are struggling with pay cuts. As of August, 17 million workers were getting paid less due to the pandemic, said Mark Zandi, chief economist at Moody's Analytics. Some 9.5 million took pay cuts; the remaining 7.5 million are working fewer hours, he said."

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Sept 21, 2020


9.21.20 - Capitalism's Ten Commandments

Gold last traded at $1,909 an ounce. Silver at $24.42 an ounce.

NEWS SUMMARY: Precious metal prices traded sharply lower Monday as investors scrambled for liquidity to cover stock market margin calls. The September sell-off continues with U.S. stocks plunging another 2-3% on fears about the worsening coronavirus as well as uncertainty on further fiscal stimulus.

A lot of capital waiting to jump into the gold market -Incrementum/Kitco
"Gold's current consolidation period is helping to remove some froth from the market, letting sentiment catch from the strong momentum seen this past summer that push prices to $2,000 an ounce, according to one fund manager. Although gold is caught in a trading range between $1,900 and $2,000, Ronald-Peter Stoeferle, managing partner of Incrementum and an author of the annual In Gold We Trust report, said that it is only a matter of time before prices push higher because there is so much capital on the sidelines just waiting to jump into the gold market. According to Mr. Stoeferle, 'Gold is in a stealth bull market with prices rising in every currency. The gold-to-silver ratio falling is another bullish sign for gold.'"

snake Expect Persistent High Market Volatility -Merkel/Aleph Blog
"When valuations are high, volatility is typically high as well. When interest rates are low, volatility also is high. Why? A situation has been set up by the functional equivalent of the 'Wizard of Oz' where small changes to interest rates or economic activity will have big impact on stock prices. And so I am telling you, be ready for whippy markets. The sorcerer's apprentices at the Fed, gamely trying to cover for their bosses (Congress) who have no coherent idea of what to do, will keep short-term, high-quality interest rates low. And that's fine, not, as even the slightest variation in wording will make economic agents jumpy. When markets are priced to perfection, even the slightest breeze makes the branches at the top of the tree move hard. My advice to you is simple. Run a balanced portfolio, and resist the trends. Buy low, sell high. Sell to the greedy, and buy from those who panic....The purple party controls DC, and all they do is run huge deficits and ask the Fed to monetize them via expanding bank credit. Would that we could vote them all out of office, balance the budget on an accrual basis, and link the dollar to gold. We are going to have some significant disaster out of the current policy, but I can't tell what kind of disaster will come."

The Ten Commandments of Capitalism -Sass/The Economic Standard
"Those of us who are committed to a better world for all know that capitalism (i.e., a system of free enterprise based on private property and rule of law) is the only path forward. In The Ten Commandments of Capitalism: The Secret Recipe for Equitable Prosperity, Ralph Benko provides a concrete set of guidelines to preserve and enhance capitalism for the sake of equitable prosperity....Benko rightly argues that whether or not we choose to provide citizens with generous public services, we must first be committed to the ongoing benefits of wealth creation...Both the Nordic and Singaporean models of capitalism have been demonstrated, repeatedly, in practice to support the general welfare. Socialism, in the dozens of instances it has been tried, has degraded the general welfare. The rise of 'socialism' as a political identity is rightly horrifying to anyone who knows anything about the 20th century....If we follow Benko's advice, we can look forward to a U.S. in which our entire society is incredibly prosperous for all....In combination with entrepreneurial initiative in education and healthcare, Benko's Ten Commandments of Capitalism will allow all Americans to lead meaningful, productive lives. It will also allow the United States to remain the most important moral influence in the world....The two primary concerns of those who traditionally identify as 'left,' generous social benefits and environmental protections, are both fully supported by Benko's 'Ten Commandments.' Benko is focused on ensuring that we continue to have the prosperity needed to provide a generous social safety net and pristine environment....We are in the midst of a historical moment in which 'socialism' as a rallying cry is more prevalent than it has been since the fall of the Soviet Union. We should be focused on how to create equitable prosperity through free enterprise."

Get Ready for an Election Crisis -Noonan/Wall Street Journal
"Between bitter division and massive mail-in balloting, a normal vote would be a miracle. Let's talk about the terrible time America might be in for in the days and weeks, maybe months, after the election. It starts with what is known: On election night we probably won't know who won the presidency. The event we've been hoping would resolve things instead may leave them more mysterious....In 2016 about 25% of voters voted by mail. This year it may be more than twice that. Meaning more than half of all ballots. It may be days or weeks before we know the mail-in results....Another wrinkle. Republicans seem to prefer voting in person, and Democrats by mail...Because of this it's possible that on election night there could be what looks like a solid margin in favor of President Trump, especially in the states that will decide the election....The waiting will require patience and trust. That's not, as we know, the prevailing political mood. We are riven and polarized. 'It is my greatest concern,' Joe Biden has said. 'This president is going to try to steal this election.' Mr. Trump: 'They're trying to steal the election from the Republicans.'....'Postelection through to the inauguration, we have a real danger zone,' says Larry Sabato, the great veteran director of the University of Virginia's Center for Politics. There will be charges and countercharges, rumors, legal challenges. There will be stories - 'My cousin saw with her own eyes bags of votes being thrown in the Ohio River.' Most dangerously there will be conspiracy theories, fed by a frenzied internet....The Electoral College meets Dec. 14. There, Mr. Sabato notes, it's possible there could be a 269-269 tie. There is also the issue of so-called faithless electors, who could deny the winning candidate a majority....What a crisis - including a constitutional crisis - may be coming down the pike."

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Sept 18, 2020


9.18.20 - Gold Set to Soar on Dovish Fed

Gold last traded at $1,961 an ounce. Silver at $27.08 an ounce.

NEWS SUMMARY: Precious metal prices rose Friday amid growing stock market volatility and a weaker dollar. U.S. stocks traded mostly lower led by weakness in tech shares and investor option-contract expirations.

Gold prices set to soar as Fed signals years of low interest rates -Fox Business
"Gold prices are set to spring higher after more than a month of moving sideways, according to one analyst. Drivers include a positive technical backdrop and the likelihood of sustained low interest rates in the world's largest economies that may prompt investors to seek better returns in other 'safe haven' investments. Gold has 'worked off the momentum, sentiment and positioning extremes seen at the peak and looks set to resume its uptrend' wrote Laurence Balanco of Hong Kong-based capital markets and investment group CLSA Ltd....'Price action is now pricing the apex of this pattern, and something has to give,' Balanco wrote. He thinks a close above $1,966.60 would confirm a breakout to the upside that targets $2,185 to $2,200, up as much as 12% from the $1,960.20 where the precious metal settled on Wednesday....'We would look at adding new long gold positions,' Balanco said."

2021 Yes, 2021 Could Be Worse -Wright/AIER
"I notice lots of folks on social media pining for 2021. Don't kill the messenger, but 2021 could be much worse than 2020. But how? Covid-19 came close to causing a legitimate crisis only in the New York City area and there only with 'help' from Governor Cuomo's kill people in nursing homes policy...Moreover, death counts have been confusing, with documented instances of people dying in motorcycle accidents and from terminal cancer being counted as Covid-19 fatalities....In short, although the virus is less deadly than at first, and treatments have improved (for example by not putting people on those ventilators we so desperately thought we needed back in March with such alacrity), and the disease appears to have run its course in much of the country, politicians and the media continue to stir up uncertainty, which they use to stoke fear in the public, and continued compliance with government dictates, school closings, and such....America has a long history of riots that make even looted retail stores, torched buildings, and occupied police precincts appear like a walk in the park by comparison. With so much at stake in the Presidential election due to our inability and unwillingness to curb the federal government's power, both sides have incentives to rile up their bases when one or the other side loses this November. Where it ends, nobody knows, but the historical precedents are frightening....Imagine 2020's murder hornets, Covid-19 lockdowns, urban riotish uprisings, and such but with enemy aircraft overhead and missiles inbound because we are also at war with Iran. Or China. Or Russia. Or North Korea. Or all of them....Normally, countries do not want to throw down against the United States, which has proven its willingness and ability to invade, occupy, and generally ruin countries no matter how many trillions of dollars it takes. But it isn't clear that Uncle Sam has trillions to spare anymore...Moreover, America's rulers might be interested in fomenting a war about now to distract from domestic difficulties. They are likely under the silly misapprehension that war is 'good for the economy.'"

Dollar Weakness Or Dollar Crash? -Zero Hedge
"The Dollar has shown weakness during the second and third quarters, with the trade-weighted Dollar Index falling from a high of almost 103 in March to a low of 92 at the end of August...These moves correspond roughly to a 10% depreciation of the Dollar. With trade tensions looming in the background, any move in currency markets can quickly have political repercussions: the Treasury Department monitors exchange rates for evidence of manipulation by foreign governments. In 2019, it designated China a currency manipulator. As a direct result of the Dollar's weakness, the next report in October is likely to have to mute its criticism of foreign countries' policies designed to keep their own currencies weak. At the same time, the weak Dollar helps to boost U.S. exports and create jobs, just in time for the election. Effectively, the weak Dollar is a form of monetary stimulus. This is precisely the effect President Trump has repeatedly mentioned since taking office. No matter the outcome of the November election, the next administration will have no incentive to talk up the Dollar while the economy is still suffering from the Covid slump....Since the dollar started weakening, the Bank of China has allowed the Yuan to strengthen against the dollar, thereby reversing some of the tariff-offsetting exchange rate moves. This may be an early indication that degloblization is in full swing and that exports to the Dollar block are no longer a priority for China's central planners."

The Real Cost of Biden's Plans -Mulligan/Wall Street Journal
"Presidential candidate Joe Biden has pledged that his administration will impose no new taxes on Americans making $400,000 or less and that there will be 'no raising taxes . . . on mom and pop businesses.' Both his policy platform and his record belie that promise. During their first campaign for the White House, the Obama-Biden ticket 'firmly' pledged that 'no family making less than $250,000 a year would see any form of a tax increase.' They soon pushed through the Affordable Care Act, which included a tax penalty for failing to purchase health insurance, paid primarily by people earning less than $50,000 annually....Today Mr. Biden takes a similarly veiled approach to advancing the 'clean energy revolution and environmental justice' outlined in his platform. Instead of using a carbon tax, which would use market forces to reduce the economic damage but also obviously violate his tax pledge, he would apply the force of regulation. He aims, for example, to eliminate emissions for passenger vehicles, which would make buying a new car thousands of dollars more expensive. As President Trump is apt to explain, regulations are 'stealth taxation, especially on the poor.' The poor would suffer most under Mr. Biden's platform...The biggest bite would come in diminished purchasing power due to higher prices for energy, cars and other consumer....Not only has Mr. Trump removed hundreds of regulations that Mr. Biden is inclined to resurrect; the president has also slowed the pace of new rules compared with prior administrations....None of this should be a surprise. An active regulatory state is a playground for the privileged class to indulge its own preferences at the expense of ordinary Americans."

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Sept 17, 2020


9.17.20- The Federal Reserve is "Dr. Evil"

Gold last traded at $1,944 an ounce. Silver at $26.92 an ounce.

NEWS SUMMARY: Precious metal prices eased back Thursday on mild profit-taking and a firmer dollar. U.S. stocks dropped as the technology sector declined amid conflicting reports of a coronavirus vaccine timeline.

Gold rises as investors bet on dovish U.S. Fed stance -Reuters/Yahoo Finance
"Gold prices rose on Wednesday, helped by a subdued dollar as investors bet on dovish monetary cues from the U.S Federal Reserve when it announces its policy decision later today. 'What we're probably seeing building in gold here is the expectation that the Fed is going to be more dovish than in the past, and the realization that we're seeing slightly more inflationary pressure than anticipated,' said OANDA analyst Craig Erlam. While the Fed does not need to announce stimulus measures now, it will have to lay the groundwork for potential stimulus later, he added. Making bullion more attractive for those buying the metal in other currencies, the dollar index fell in the run-up to the Fed decision....Lower U.S. interest rates tend to weigh on bond yields and the dollar, bolstering the appeal of non-yielding gold, which is also seen as hedge against inflation and currency debasement."

the fed The Fed is Dr. Evil -Grossman/Trish Intel
"The Fed has two primary jobs, a dual mandate, full employment, and price stability. The first they take really seriously. No one really wants to see people unemployed and, at least until Covid-19 and PPP, not too many people really wanted to be unemployed. Inflation, on the other hand, has been more of an annoyance, a whipping boy that has been used to justify any and all monetary policies designed to foster growth and employment....The Fed has favored excess monetary accommodation for over twenty-five years. It has been a progressive march to lower and lower interest rates and asset purchase policies that flood the banking system, the capital markets and the economy at-large with staggering amounts of liquidity....I have long argued with central banks and economists that their theory breaks down as rates drop towards zero and massive asset purchase programs are implemented....First, central banks bought government securities, then mortgages, then high-grade corporate bonds, and now even low investment-grade securities and equities are considered fair game. Our central banks, rather than being the lenders and liquidity providers of last resort, are now subprime lenders and hedge funds. They are now the casino telling the gamblers to throw caution to the wind and go all-in....The real beneficiary of this deluge of monetary accommodation has been to push asset prices to extraordinary levels. While this may feel good if you own a lot of stock, it comes with a lot of attendant baggage. As noted, it distorts virtually all aspects of financial and economic decision-making. It distorts and destabilizes....The Fed has used equities as a measure and tool of monetary policy, although they won't acknowledge it, believing that higher asset prices stimulate consumption and other economic variables...It is probably too late, but central banking needs to go back to its more traditional roots. Provide a framework that encourages the best long-term economic outcomes, tying return to risk, and staying out of the private sector."

Ray Dalio Warns of Threat to Dollar as Reserve Currency -Bloomberg
"The dollar's decades-long position as the global reserve currency is in jeopardy because of steps the U.S. has taken to support its economy during the Covid-19 pandemic, according to Ray Dalio, founder of hedge fund giant Bridgewater Associates. While equities and gold benefited from the trillions of dollars in fiscal spending and monetary injections, those efforts are debasing the currency and have raised the possibility that the U.S. will go too far in testing the limits of government stimulus, Dalio said Tuesday in an interview with Bloomberg Television. 'There is so much debt production and debt monetization,' Dalio said. The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index has dropped 10% from its peak in late March as investors responded to the pandemic and efforts by central bank and government officials to contain the economic fallout. All of the world's major developed currencies have gained against the dollar as have precious metals such as gold, silver and platinum. Dalio said in July that investors should favor stocks and gold over bonds and cash because the latter offer a negative rate of return and central banks will print more money. Bridgewater has been moving into gold and inflation-linked bonds in its All Weather portfolio, diversifying the countries it invests in and finding more stocks with stable cash flow."

America's Wealth Gap Grows in the Post-COVID-19, K-Shaped Economic Recovery -Bonner/Rogue Economics
"Readers hoping for a V-shaped recovery, with a quick return to 'normal,' are already searching the alphabet for alternatives. 'K' is probably the best bet, with some doing better than ever, but the rest on a downward track. Which direction you go depends mostly on which economy you are in - the new one"¦ or the one being left behind....For 'knowledge workers' - no matter how ignorant - the COVID lockdown posed little trouble. Lawyers, architects, accountants, analysts, bureaucrats, clerks, marketers, designers - millions of office rats were able to simply move their offices to their nests. There, with no need to commute, no gasoline to buy"¦ no donuts and coffee to pick up on the way to work, and no lunches out"¦ they found themselves better off. Savings rates tripled. Meanwhile, those whose work involved no internet terminal suddenly found themselves cut off from their work. And much of that work will never return....It's not the same world. The water is already under the bridge; there's no way to get it back. Between the fear of getting sick (stoked by the media and the feds) and the unappealing public 'health' measures to prevent it, people change their plans and their attitudes. They may even become conspicuous savers - flaunting their old cars and worn out sweaters as status symbols. Already, fewer want to take cruises"¦ or dine out"¦ or go to the theater. Or go to Europe for a summer vacation. Hotel occupancy rates in Paris are down 86% from last year. They are expected to come back - but probably never to where they once were. So, what about the hotel workers? The restaurant owners? The taxi drivers? The shopkeepers?....Millions of people are being left behind. What will they do? Live on welfare, like the people of West Baltimore or West Philadelphia? And what will happen to the economy itself? This new normal could cut GDP growth down to zero"¦ and leave it there. Then what? Stay tuned."

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Sept 16, 2020


9.16.20 - Sound the Alarm Bells on Inflation

Gold last traded at $1,962 an ounce. Silver at $27.29 an ounce.

NEWS SUMMARY: Precious metal prices rose Wednesday on a weaker dollar and expected dovish comments from the Fed meeting. U.S. stocks rose on investor expectations that the Fed will keep rates unchanged far into the future.

Gold to outperform silver into year-end, $4K gold price not ruled out by 2023 -Bloomberg Intelligence/Kitco
"Gold is looking to outperform silver into year-end, according to Bloomberg Intelligence, which is not ruling out $4,000 gold by 2023, noting that the gold bull rally is just beginning. After breaking $2,000 an ounce level, gold has been stuck in a trading range between $1,930 and $1,980 an ounce. But despite the several-week hiatus from major price action, gold will still do better than silver in the second half of the year, said Bloomberg Intelligence senior commodity strategist Mike McGlone. 'The done-deal nature of continued central bank easing is a solid foundation for gold, but less so for silver and copper prices. Industrial metals are dependent on more fiscal stimulus and a global economic rebound, yet increasingly vulnerable to normal stock-market mean reversion,' wrote McGlone in the latest monthly commodity update. For silver to outperform gold on a continuous basis for the rest of the year, the market will have to see a combination of rising bond yields, a peak dollar, declining stock-market volatility and continued global economic expansion. In Bloomberg Intelligence's view, this scenario is unlikely....The gold's bull rally is just beginning, noted the report. 'Gold bottomed at about $700 in 2008 and peaked near $1,900 in 2011. A similar-velocity 2.7x advance from this year's low-close near $1,470 points toward $4,000 by 2023,' McGlone explained. The stock market will play a big role in gold's performance going forward, with fortunes turning towards the yellow metal."

inflation Sound the alarm bells on inflation -Mack/The Hill
"America is at a crucial crossroads. Our government is spending money like never before. We now have debt that is larger than gross domestic product for the first time since World War Two. There are warning signs the bill collector will be knocking at some point in the near future. As a real estate developer and investor, I have lived with several kinds of economic eras. I know that excessive spending could lead to dangerous inflation. How did our country get into this situation? It started in the last administration with $1 trillion stimulus plans to lift us out from the Great Recession, but it has continued under the current administration, and is now badly exacerbated by the world pandemic of the coronavirus. Republicans and Democrats in Congress have tried to outdo themselves with costly relief bills, and they are not done yet for the current crisis....Believe it or not, there are economists who believe that a government can spend its way out of debt. What is the wisdom of that? The reality may be that more inflation means paying back in dollars that would be worth less tomorrow, but countries continue to pursue the same strategy, as the world is awash with money. Gold is almost $2,000 an ounce, the price of silver has doubled from its low, the value of the dollar is falling, and housing prices are rising....My advice is 'gather your rosebuds while you may' and prepare for an inflation repeat. I believe it is inevitable that interest rates have to move much higher. The massive federal spending will inevitably lead to inflation. In fact, there are already signs it is coming close. With artificially low interest rates, people are creating a housing bubble, with few homes and many buyers....Meanwhile, just as we may be entering a period of higher prices, we are entering a period of changing work environments. Store sales have been declining and online sales are rocketing thanks to the lockdowns. There was once a salesman on television named Crazy Eddie who told us, 'Our prices are insane!' Those words are true today, but we have time to bring sanity back to our federal spending and our way of life."

The Four D's That Define the Future -Smith/Of Two Minds
"Four D's will define 2020-2025: derealization, denormalization, decomplexification and decoherence. That's a lot of D's. Let's take them one at a time. I use the word derealization to describe the inner disconnect between what we experience and what the propaganda / marketing complex we live in tells us we should be experiencing....The current state of the economy is a good example. We see the real-world economy declining yet the officially approved narrative is that there's a V-shaped recovery underway because Big Tech stocks are hitting new highs....Denormalization is an extinction event for much of our high-cost, high-complexity, heavily regulated economy. Subsidizing high costs doesn't stop the dominoes from falling, as subsidies are not a substitute for the virtuous cycle of re-investment. The Fed's project of lowering the cost of capital to zero doesn't generate this virtuous cycle; all it does is encourage socially useless speculative predation. Collapse isn't "impossible," it's unavoidable.....Decomplexification is a mouthful, and everyone inside the machine knows the impossibility of paring organizational complexity....When the money runs out or loses its purchasing power, all sorts of complexity that were previously viewed as essential crumble to dust....Decoherence refers to the loss of systemic coherence between narratives, values, processes and systems. Simply put, stuff no longer works right and it no longer makes sense....The four D's help us understand why the status quo is incapable of adapting / evolving fast enough and effectively enough to manage a controlled collapse to a much lower level of cost and complexity. The status quo can't even admit the need for a controlled collapse, much less manage it. We can add a fifth D: denial. The four D's are already in motion and denial is only accelerating systemic decoherence."

Pelosi Holds House Democrats Hostage As Party Revolts Over Stimulus Impasse -Zero Hedge
"After rejecting a $1.5 trillion bipartisan stimulus compromise supported by 50 House lawmakers, Speaker Nancy Pelosi (D-CA) vowed to hold the chamber hostage - announcing that the House will remain in session until the parties reach an agreement on the next round of coronavirus relief. During a conference call with the House Democratic Caucus, Pelosi said she wouldn't accept a 'skinny' deal - and would instead extend the chamber's calendar until a deal she approves of is struck, according to The Hill. 'We have to stay here until we have a bill,' she told lawmakers. Pelosi's intransigence has ruffled feathers within her own party, as Politico reports that her hardline approach to negotiations - demanding $2.2 trillion at latest count, has frustrated rank-and-file Democrats. 'Every member of the leadership team, Democrats and Republicans, have messed up. Everyone is accountable,' said Rep. Max Rose (D-NY). 'Get something done. Get something done'."

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Sept 15, 2020


9.15.20 - This is Why Millennials Adore Socialism

Gold last traded at $1,957 an ounce. Silver at $27.24 an ounce.

NEWS SUMMARY: Precious metal prices traded mixed Tuesday on mild profit-taking and a firmer dollar. U.S. stocks rose on upbeat investor sentiment after tech stocks rebounded from a brutal sell-off last week.

Gold price "coiling" suggests bigger move coming soon -Kitco
"Gains in the metals are occurring despite better risk appetite in the marketplace to start the trading week. Importantly, recent sideways and choppy price action in gold has produced a bullish coiling pattern on the daily bar chart, suggesting the market is storing up energy for a bigger price move coming soon...and odds favor that price move being on the upside....Major central bank meetings are in the spotlight this week. The Federal Reserve, Bank of England and Bank of Japan all have monetary policy meetings this week. The Fed's FOMC meeting will be closely scrutinized following its shift to an easing of its inflation constricts. The question remains how the FOMC puts its new policy into action....From what we know now, the Fed is set up to keep interest rates near zero for a long time, possibly for several years. Given the new framework, any spike in inflation won't translate into immediate rate hikes as the Fed wants to compensate for the lost years when they have failed to hit the target."

far middle This is why millennials adore socialism -O'Rourke/New York Post
"America's young people have veered to the left. Opinion pollsters tell us so. According to a November 2019 Gallup poll, 'Since 2010, young adults' positive ratings of socialism have hovered near 50 percent.' A March 2019 Axios poll concurs, saying that 49 percent of millennials would 'Prefer living in a socialist country.' And The Hill puts it more strongly, citing an October 2019 YouGov Internet survey in a story headed, '7 in 10 Millennials Say They'd Vote for a Socialist.' What's the matter with kids today? Nothing new....As soon as children discover that the world isn't nice, they want to make it nicer. And wouldn't a world where everybody shares everything be nice? Aw "¦ kids are so tender-hearted. But kids are broke - so they want to make the world nicer with your money. And kids don't have much control over things - so they want to make the world nicer through your effort. And kids are very busy being young - so it's your time that has to be spent making the world nicer. Kids were thinking these exact same sweet-young-thing thoughts back in the 1960s, during my salad days. Young people probably have been thinking these same thoughts since the concept of being a 'young person' was invented. That would have been in the 19th century - during America's first 'Progressive Era' - when mechanization liberated kids from onerous farm chores and child labor laws let them escape from child labor. This gave young people the leisure to sit around noticing that the world isn't nice and daydreaming about how it could be made nicer with the time, effort and money of grown-ups....'From each according to his ability, to each according to his need' is deeply stupid and completely impractical. And yet there's a place where it works. This place is my house. And your house. And anywhere else there's a family....From each according to Mom's and Dad's ability, not to mention the ability of Mom's and Dad's Visa card credit line and the bank loans we took out to pay for school tuition."

The Work From Home Backlash is Upon Us -Carlson/A Wealth of Common Sense
"It was bound to happen. You just knew some of these big corporations have been gritting their teeth and smiling through the pandemic with the work from home shift. I've been waiting for the inevitable backlash and it appears to be here. The Wall Street Journal reported this week JP Morgan told senior employees of the bank's giant sales and trading operation that they and their teams must return to the office by Sept. 21...This is an exchange with Joe Flint of the WSJ and Netflix CEO Reed Hastings on the matter: WSJ: It's been anticipated that many companies will shift to a work-from-home approach for many employees even after the Covid-19 crisis. What do you think? Mr. Hastings: If I had to guess, the five-day workweek will become four days in the office while one day is virtual from home. I'd bet that's where a lot of companies end up. WSJ: Do you have a date in mind for when your workforce returns to the office? Mr. Hastings: Twelve hours after a vaccine is approved...Netflix is notorious for being a hard place to work. They are far from the only corporation that thinks like this. There is inequality everywhere you look during the pandemic and the ability to work remotely illustrates this perfectly...Bloomberg reports 'Americans with higher incomes were more likely to telework in August.'....The pandemic has hit people differently not just depending on their income level or ability to work from home but also their stage in life....There are bound to be growing pains in the months and years ahead as companies decide how to integrate what they've learned over the past 6 months. This transition is not going to be as smooth as many people think."

What the Pandemic Has Revealed About the Role of Schools -Aspen Institute
"It's back-to-school time and, in 2020, this season is a time of anxiety in the face of a global pandemic. None of us - parents, educators, administrators, doctors, policymakers - know if sending our children back to school this fall is a good idea...But perhaps those of us who are directly or indirectly addressing the societal, economic, and pedagogical aspects of the US education system can give weight to the importance of schools in America. If we can make a real assessment of the place that they hold in our society, we can have a more constructive conversation about what schools need to be doing now, whether face-to-face or virtually. And perhaps we can make smarter decisions about the role of schools when the pandemic is under control. 1) Educators and school staff are society's biggest caregivers outside the home - The school week doesn't echo the workweek by mere coincidence. Schools give parents a safe and low-cost option for childcare and thus are a pillar of our economy....2) Schools provide a place for kids to learn - A school building is where learning usually takes place...from kid-focused teachers to kid-sized desks, that make it work....3) Schools provide emotional support and routine - Relationships with engaged educators improve student outcomes....4) Schools offer shelter from insecurity - Schools also fight poverty directly. More than half of all the students in public education rely on schools for free or subsidized meals....5) Schools are community centers - A school is a village unto itself, and parents and children gather for all sorts of non-academic reasons - for sports and clubs and extended care and ice cream socials....The importance of schools in society cannot be overstated, and yet schools remain chronically undervalued and underfunded. In the midst of a debate about whether or not schools should be open, perhaps we are finally recognizing all that we are asking schools to do."

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Sept 14, 2020


9.14.20 - Oil & Gold Offer More Opportunity Than Risk

Gold last traded at $1,964 an ounce. Silver at $27.46 an ounce.

NEWS SUMMARY: Precious metal prices rose sharply Monday on bargain-hunting and a weaker dollar. U.S. stocks rose amid corporate dealmaking as the market tried to recover from back-to-back weekly declines.

Volatility in oil and gold may offer more opportunity than risk -Marketwatch
"Many of the biggest movers in commodities this year, including oil and precious metals, will continue to take the spotlight as the year draws on. Traders are trying to assess the effects of the pandemic on demand and are looking for signs of a global economic recovery....'Many commodities are trading well below their long-term incentive prices,' says Alissa Corcoran, director of research at Kopernik Global Investors....Oil prices have been 'driven down by reduced demand,' said Corcoran. Oil below its long-term incentive price, which she estimates at $75 a barrel, is unlikely to stay at that level. On Sept. 8, U.S. and global benchmark oil futures settled below $40 a barrel, the lowest since June....Commodity investors, however, will continue to eye moves in precious metals, which got a boost as the pandemic raised demand for gold and silver as a haven. Signs of some recovery in global economies led silver, which is also an industrial metal, to far outpace gold's rise. As of Sept. 8, silver futures traded around 50% higher year to date, while gold rose 27%....'The factors that have underpinned gold's move higher are still with us,' said Ross Norman, chief executive officer of Metals Daily....Metals Daily expects gold to potentially climb as high as $2,200 before year-end, 'which would give gold a 45% gain on the year,' while silver may challenge the $35 level at year-end, which would represent a 'massive' 95% gain on the year, says Norman. Overall, commodities can be 'very volatile' in the short term, which 'we view not as risk but as opportunity,' says Corcoran."

gambling Are You an Investor or a Gambler? The Stock Market Knows. -Wall Street Journal
"You should learn whether you're an investor or a gambler before the market teaches you the difference. Stock gamblers are on the rise. But, sooner or later, they will lose most - if not all - of their recent gains.Just look at options trading, which has been surging. Many traders use options as a cheap way to try hitting the jackpot: stock-market Powerball. In late August, a record 62% of premiums paid for options initiating bets on rising stock prices came from people buying no more than 10 contracts. (The long-term average is 34%.)....Small traders shelled out $11.5 billion this way - an all-time high and nine times last year's average. To put that week's bets in perspective, in all of fiscal 2019 Americans spent $91 billion on lottery tickets....Although stock trades are free at most brokerages, you can't trade options - win or lose - without paying the premium. Guess wrong a few times, and you'll be out thousands of dollars with nothing to show for it but a churning stomach....If this sounds like you, confess to your friends or family and get help before the market cures you the hard way: with massive losses that can wreck your life."

Just 10 Stocks Accounting For Half The August Gains Has Led To "Record Market Fragility" -Zero Hedge
"The S&P500 is rapidly becoming the S&P5, with just the 5 FAAMG names now accounting for a record 23% of the S&P's market cap, well above the concentration observed during the peak of the dot com bubble when a similar figure only hit 18% (for MSFT, CSCO, GE, INTC and WMT). Which is why it won't come as much of a surprise that according to Bank of America, just 10 S&P stocks, accounted for more than half of the market's 7.2% return in August. What may come as a surprise however, is BofA's breakdown of who the buyers were since the March lows. In analyzing the positioning of investors via sentiment & flows Z-scores, the bank found that equity buyers in March were mostly 'old retail' (high net worth), in April it was the long onlies & hedge funds, while the period of June through August was dominated by 'new retail' investors, i.e. Robinhood-type daytraders, although August was a truly history month combining a 'vortex of concentration' + new retail + optionality in a historic blow-off top. This buying frenzy hit a brick wall in September, when the record market fragility in August, represented by a record high call/put ratio, came crashing down in the fastest ever correction in the Nasdaq."

Global COVID-19 Deaths Top 900,000; Europe Daily Tally Tops US For First Time In Months -Zero Hedge
"The number of new COVID-19 cases reported in Europe over the last 24 hours has surpassed the US for the first time in months. The 27 countries in the European Union plus the U.K., Norway, Iceland and Liechtenstein recorded 27,233 new cases on Wednesday, compared with 26,015 for the US, according to the latest tallies from JHU. It comes as Spain, France and - to a lesser degree, Italy and the UK - lead a resurgence as more businesses and schools reopen. Yet another case of COVID-19 reinfection has been confirmed last Thursday after a man who traveled from the US to the eastern Chinese city of Nanjing reportedly tested positive for the coronavirus, after two negative tests in less than a month, the local government said....China reported seven new cases for the past 24 hours, up from just two a day earlier. All of the new cases were described as imported, including the case mentioned above, since they all allegedly involved travelers from overseas. China has gone 25 consecutive days with no local transmissions. Though South Korea raised important questions about China's numbers earlier this week....India reported a record single-day spike in cases and fatalities, with 95,735 infections and 1,172 deaths in the last 24 hours, bringing its COVID-19 total to more than 4.46 million and extending its lead over Brazil....While the global death toll topped 901,050, the latest in a series of grim milestones. Forecasts from IHME, an organization affiliated with the University of Washington, has the world on track for 2.8 million deaths by January. Though many critics have scoffed at these numbers, since a surge of new cases in Europe has seen far fewer deaths than the first wave."

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Sept 11, 2020


9.11.20 - Trump Inherited a Meek Economy, and Made It Roar

Gold last traded at $1,941 an ounce. Silver at $26.75 an ounce.

NEWS SUMMARY: Precious metal prices rose on safe-haven buying and a weaker dollar. U.S. stocks traded mixed in another volatile session as tech once again attempted to rebound from its recent slump.

Investing in Gold vs. Silver: 3 Key Differences to Know -Hartill/Motley Fool
"When the economy is tanking and inflation is high, investors often rush to gold. Silver is also viewed as a safe-haven investment, though it gets a lot less hype. Both precious metals have been sought after throughout history, so they're appealing when stocks and currencies are losing value....While gold and silver have similar boom-and-bust cycles, there are a few key differences to consider when you're deciding whether investing in gold vs. investing in silver is a better move. 1. Gold is more expensive due to its smaller supply....Gold is more expensive because it's by far the rarer metal. Worldwide, just 3,300 tons of gold were mined in 2019, compared to 27,000 tons of silver, according to the U.S. Geological Survey....2. Silver's industrial uses make gold the hedge of choice. Gold and silver prices tend to move in the same direction, but gold is a better recession hedge. More than half of the demand for silver is driven by its countless industrial uses. It's widely used in electronics, automobiles, solar panels, medicine and manufacturing, to name a few....3. Silver is more volatile than gold. While short-term fluctuations in gold prices get a lot of attention, gold is relatively stable as a long-term investment. The silver market's small size relative to the gold market makes it susceptible to wild price swings....Because of silver's volatility, it may be more appealing than gold if you're seeking to speculate on short-term fluctuations. But as a long-term hedge, gold is clearly more attractive."

germany We Will See A "Coup" In The U.S. As America Approaches Its "Weimar Moment" -Price/King World News
"I cannot regard events in the US as spontaneous expressions of anger and dissatisfaction regarding present social conditions. Disorderly events of this duration and magnitude cannot possibly be - in my opinion - spontaneous expressions of popular discontent, says Multi-billionaire Hugo Salinas Price. Revolutions always have interested parties at work, and I regard what is going on in the US as the beginning of a Revolution, aided and abetted by a foreign power and its representatives within the US....The American Democratic System, reliant upon the government of the nation by one of two approved political parties, is coming to an end. Each of those Parties relied on handing out money and contracts for money, to pacify the population, until reaching the point where that policy cannot work to preserve social peace, because the country is bankrupt. When President Nixon 'closed the gold window' on August 15, 1971, he did not realize the final consequences of his action: The US proceeded to de-industrialize and closed down its industrial base - in those days, this was called 'The Greening of America'. The US had no further use for its industries, since it could purchase absolutely everything it needed, by tendering Dollars, universally accepted by foreign producers. The abandonment of gold, really meant the de-industrialization of the US. But nobody noticed! The US is approaching its 'Weimar moment' - the moment when printing more and more Dollars, by the trillions, is the only recourse left to keep the 'US airplane flying' when practically all its motors have been turned off....Inevitably, the fundamental financial and social problems of the US cannot possibly be resolved without the re-industrialization of the US, on the basis of gold as money....The only reason that the world has not already 'gone back to gold as money' has been the objection to this measure, on the part of the US, which has insisted on maintaining the irredeemable Dollar as the world's leading currency. The US Government has been oblivious regarding the fact that the mighty, but irredeemable, Dollar had to result in the de-industrialization of the US, which has reduced a large sector of the US population to serfdom, occupying the lowest stratas of income in the nation, along with chronic unemployment of masses of people - all the while massively enriching a very small sector of the population."

The stock market is detached from economic reality. A reckoning is coming. -The Hour
"The wealthy are heavily invested in big companies. And it's not just that indexes such as the S&P 500 - representing 500 of the largest - are skewed toward bigness. It's also that a subset of truly giant corporations are driving market gains. The S&P 500 gains have been driven by five companies: Apple, Amazon, Microsoft, Facebook and Google's parent company, Alphabet. But even big companies need customers. When overall demand sinks, why wouldn't that be reflected in share prices? In part, the answer is that fiscal policies enacted by Congress, and monetary policies put in place by the Federal Reserve this spring have disproportionately benefited corporations. The Federal Reserve announced in March that it would pump several trillion dollars into the financial markets by continuing its so called quantitative easing - purchasing assets directly in the financial markets to support asset prices, while also buying about $1 trillion worth of bonds from big companies either directly or indirectly in secondary markets. As a temporary solution, it's working. Trillions of dollars spread around by the Fed now support not just stock prices and corporate bonds but even junk bonds, real estate investment trusts, and private equity firms that continue to borrow at rock-bottom rates, taking advantage of the downturn and sustaining their own debt-laden portfolio companies. These financial-market stimulus efforts continued apace even as enhanced federal unemployment insurance benefits expired at the end of July. Near-boundless support for U.S. financial markets, however, won't save the real economy from a continuing recession. While it's true that propping up asset values can stave off a financial crisis (for a while), it can't deliver the broad economic stimulus needed to bring unemployment figures down - let alone protect Main Street's businesses and workers. Jerome Powell, chair of the Fed, has repeatedly said that his institution can't keep equity and debt assets propped up if the economy continues to deteriorate. Businesses are still going bankrupt. Low- and moderate-income renters who are unemployed are preparing to fight evictions in the coming months, as moratoriums end. And workers in industries hardest-hit by the pandemic - think airlines and big hotel chains, among others - who initially kept their jobs are now joining the ranks of the unemployed. Amid all this, one thing remains clear: For Wall Street, too, there will be a reckoning."

Trump Inherited a Meek Economy, and Made It Roar -Puzder/Real Clear Markets
"Once again, Democrats are trying to attribute President Trump's economic success to President Obama - and their claims are no truer than they've ever been. Joe Biden's running mate, Kamala Harris, claimed last month that Trump 'inherited the longest economic expansion in history from Barack Obama and Joe Biden' and 'ran it straight into the ground.' The media parrot these claims. NBC ran an article in support of Harris's claim entitled 'Data show Trump didn't build a great economy. He inherited it.'....When Obama left office in January 2017, there were 1.9 million more people unemployed than there were job openings. That's a lot of people actively available to fill open positions. By March 2018, under Trump, job openings exceeded the number of people unemployed for the first time since the government began reporting such data in 2000. That remained the case for the next 24 months - until the Covid-19 pandemic and shutdowns - with job openings exceeding people unemployed by more than 1 million for 17 of those months....Under Trump, with abundant job openings and fewer people unemployed, employers began competing for workers - and wages rose. In August 2018, year-over-year wage growth exceeded 3 percent for the first time in nearly a decade. Wage growth stayed at or above 3 percent for the next 20 months, until the pandemic....Democratic claims notwithstanding, Donald Trump's economic record pre-pandemic was one of formidable success. Trump inherited the weakest economic recovery since World War II - one with anemic job opportunities, stagnant wages, and large numbers of workers dropping out of the labor force. Implementing pro-growth policies that included cutting taxes and regulations, he produced the strongest labor market of modern times. Saying otherwise won't change that reality."

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Sept 10, 2020


9.10.20 - Pandemic Uncertainty Remains Pervasive

Gold last traded at $1,941 an ounce. Silver at $26.75 an ounce.

NEWS SUMMARY: Precious metal prices rose Thursday on rising inflation and a falling dollar. U.S. stocks rebounded led by the tech sector following a brutal three-day sell-off.

Gold Prices Rebound as Hedge funds Add to Long Positions -FX Empire
"Gold prices edged higher on Tuesday following a long weekend in the US. Prices were buoyed as riskier assets were hammered as stocks sold off and yields moved lower. The dollar was buoyed despite lower US yields as it benefited from safe-haven flows capping the rise in the yellow metal. Hedge funds increased long positions in futures and options according to the latest commitment of traders report. Gold prices rebounded from support after testing lower levels. Prices bounced off of support is seen near the 50-day moving average at 1,909. Resistance is seen near the 10-day 1,945 and then the August highs at 2,075...Short-term momentum has turned positive as the fast stochastic generated a crossover buy signal. The relative strength index is moving sideways which is a sign of consolidation. According to the most recent commitment of the trader's report released for the date ending September 1, 2020, managed money increased their long position in futures and options by 11K contracts, while reducing short positions in futures and options by 1K contracts. Open interest that is long futures and options outnumbers open interest that is short in the managed money space by a robust 150K contracts."

uncertain The Uncertainty Pandemic -Rogoff, Project Syndicate
"Policymakers' most important task is to try to reduce the massive lingering uncertainty regarding COVID-19 while continuing to provide emergency relief to the hardest-hit individuals and economic sectors. But the insecurity fueled by the pandemic is likely to weigh on the global economy long after the worst is in the past. The next few months will tell us a lot about the shape of the coming global recovery. Despite ebullient stock markets, uncertainty about COVID-19 remains pervasive. Let's start with the possible good news. In an optimistic scenario, regulators will have approved at least two leading first-generation COVID-19 vaccines by the end of this year...Assuming they are effective, biotech firms will already have some 200 million doses on hand by the end of 2020, but the public will need to be convinced that a fast-tracked vaccine is safe....Even in that case, improved testing protocols, the development of more effective anti-viral treatments, and better adherence by the public and (one hopes) politicians to behavioral guidelines would lead to gradual normalization of economic conditions....In a more pessimistic scenario, other crises - a sharp uptick in US-China trade frictions, a cyberterrorist attack or cyberwar, a climate-related natural catastrophe, or a massive earthquake - could occur before this one ends. Moreover, even the optimistic scenario does not necessarily imply a rapid return to end-2019 income levels. The post-pandemic expansion - if there is one - may take years to meet the modern definition of recovery in the aftermath of a deep recession....Although there may be an initial 'catch-up' surge of consumer spending in advanced economies, in the longer run, consumers are likely to save more...the pandemic's cumulative long-term costs for the US economy are likely to be an order of magnitude greater than the short-term effects, partly because of a long-lasting heightened sense of unease among the public."

More Oddities In This Oddest of Stock Markets -Calhoun/Alhambra Investments
"In January of this year, when stocks were surging to new highs, I wrote that stocks had entered the 'silly season'....I've heard a lot of comparisons to the dot-com mania that gripped America in the late 90s and there are some similarities in behavior. But at least today's absurdly valued tech stocks largely have earnings and some real growth. And while they are expensive, the spread to the rest of the market isn't nearly as extreme as it was back then. Of the 11 economic sectors of the S&P 500, only three have P/Es less than 20....Yes, there are a few stocks, like Tesla, that just defy fundamental logic. But the more important observation is that almost all stocks are expensive today, not just technology. Procter & Gamble, just to cite one example, is a fine company, but 28x earnings is hard to justify for a company growing at less than 5% annually. Walmart is also a great company, but 30x earnings for single-digit growth? These are not cheap stocks. The only sector exceptions are financial services and energy, at 12 and 10 times earnings respectively. If you want a bargain today, you have to buy the villain sectors, one seen as the poster child for crony capitalism and inequality and the other so evil it threatens all mankind. I don't know when the fever will break....We have reached such extremes between growth and value, international and domestic, that merely pulling back to the long-established trend lines would involve a rather violent move."

A Trump Comeback? -Editors/Wall Street Journal
"With eight weeks before Election Day, the state of the 2020 campaign is clear: President Trump is trailing Joe Biden, who has succeeded so far in making the race a referendum on the incumbent. If Mr. Trump is going to stage a comeback, and not become only the fourth incumbent in a century to be denied a second term, he will have to make the race about policy differences and Mr. Biden's indulgence to the Democratic left....Mr. Trump has reinforced the intensity of his core support. But in doing so he has shed support in the suburbs, especially among college-educated voters and women...The Trump GOP is a smaller but more intensely loyal coalition. The GOP hope has been that this would change with Mr. Trump again on the ballot, and that millions of 'shy' Trump supporters who refuse to talk to pollsters will vote like a new silent majority...Mr. Trump has narrowed his deficit somewhat since the GOP convention, but he trails Mr. Biden in the polling averages in every battleground state. It seems unlikely Mr. Trump can win the nationwide popular vote, so he will have to eke out another victory in the Electoral College. After the surprises of 2016, only a fool would say this can't be done. But if Mr. Trump is going to do it, he will have to make the election about more than himself, or even his first-term record. He has to make the election a choice about two futures, rather than two men....One campaign question is whether there are enough undecided voters who are still listening. The country deserves a debate over policy because Mr. Biden is proposing the most left-wing agenda of any major party candidate in our lifetime. The Democratic strategy is to keep Mr. Trump talking about Donald J. Trump."

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Sept 8, 2020


9.8.20 - Economy will get even better if Trump is reelected

Gold last traded at $1,942 an ounce. Silver at $26.85 an ounce.

NEWS SUMMARY: Precious metal prices eased Tuesday on mild profit-taking and a firmer dollar. U.S. stocks plunged led by technology shares following their worst sell-off in more than five months.

Does gold still have plenty of potential? -Kitco
"According to the World Gold Council, the latest leg of gold's 2020 bull run has come too fast, but gold has still potential for further upside. According to the WGC, the combination of high uncertainty, easy monetary policy, very low interest rates, positive price momentum, the depreciation of the U.S. dollar, and fears of higher inflation fueled record flows of 734 tons into gold-backed ETFs in the first half of the year and the gold's price appreciation: 'Central banks have aggressively cut interest rates, often in combination with quantitative easing and other non-traditional policy measures. Governments have also approved massive rescue packages to support their local economies. And much more may be needed. These initiatives have increased concerns that easy money, rather than fundamentals, is fueling the stock market rally and that all the extra money being pumped into the system may result in very high inflation or, at the very least, currency debasements.' The price of gold more than doubled amid the Great Recession, while it has increased by just under 30 percent since the Covid-19 pandemic....Purchasing gold today is not only a great way of maintaining purchasing power over time, but 'there is the potential both to preserve wealth and deliver outperformance by investing in gold.'"

masks Murphy's Law Is Fed's Law, and Everything Is Wrong -Snider/Real Clear Markets
"As it turns out, there actually was a Murphy. His now ubiquitous American idiom, Murphy's Law, is well-known to everyone: whatever can go wrong, will go wrong....'If that guy has any way of making a mistake, he will,' Murphy snapped... the legend was born....The original Murphy's Law was a hope-filled expression of harsh reality being surmounted by retail-level human genius....Money printing always leads to inflation, yet the reckless money printing the Federal Reserve and other modern central banks are alleged to have conducted never leads to any. Have the most basic and fundamental of economic properties and relationships so drastically changed, and that drastic change just coincidentally timed to a global monetary crisis twelve years ago, or are central bankers and Economists bending over backwards bending curves, openly trying too hard to evade recognition of the most logical and straightforward explanation? The answer is obvious....The original failure, the Fed's modern original sin it must forever cover up, is money itself. When central bankers and Economists realized they could no longer define it, and this was more than a half century ago, they came up with what they believed was progress....Nowadays, detached entirely from any accountability whatsoever, we are supposed to call Ben Bernanke, Janet Yellen, and Jay Powell heroes. For what? From the very start, these are all acts of intellectual cowardice, a bankrupt foundation so perverse it is an embarrassment to science itself; becoming ever more so with each additional stab at everything but the truth. Anything other than that. They've perverted Murphy's Law into a third version, a specific version. Fed's Law is now this: monetary policy will never go wrong, so everything else will. As it has. And it is."

Tech stocks finally tumble - a 'bumpy road' may be ahead -CNN/TechWire
"After weeks of cautioning that the spectacular run-up in stocks was likely to hit a snag, a dramatic sell-off shook Wall Street last week. The tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite plunged 5%, its worst day since June. The Dow dropped 2.8% and the S&P 500 fell 3.5%. Shares of Apple and Tesla, which had been on a tear since they announced stock splits that made shares more affordable, plummeted 8% and 9%, respectively. The action came after a summer of hand-wringing as stocks continued to reach new records, driven by massive central bank stimulus and unbridled enthusiasm for tech companies. As Apple's valuation topped $2 trillion, more than the entire Russell 2000, strategists had been telling clients that a correction was inevitable. Bespoke Investment Group noted that some of the worst-hit stocks had been 'the most aggressively valued and the biggest gainers' so far this year. And with tech looking like a very crowded trade, a rotation into other sectors is likely a good thing....Closely-watched measures of volatility indicate that the turbulence could continue. The CBOE Market Volatility Index, or VIX, which tracks volatility in the S&P 500, fell back slightly Friday but remains elevated, which is unusual when stocks are near all-time highs. Meanwhile, the CBOE Nasdaq Volatility Index - which follows the Nasdaq 100 - continued to climb. It's now at its highest level since April. 'There might be a bit of a bumpy road ahead.'"

The recovering economy will get even better if Trump is reelected -Stehle/Washington Examiner
"Our economy is roaring back to life. Over 1.7 million business applications have been filed, and some 1 million seek to open a business that will hire workers....It's a good feeling, and one we've grown accustomed to during President Trump's first term. It's a feeling people need to experience for the next four years. Thanks to Trump's pro-growth, pro-worker reforms, the economy was firing on all cylinders before the COVID-19 pandemic. We had low unemployment, the stock market reaching new heights, and wages were growing. The Trump economy was one worthy of pride. For more than a year, we had more jobs than available workers to fill them, a good problem to have. This economic boom was temporarily blocked by the pandemic, and a large part of that was due to financial disincentives to work. After Congress passed the CARES Act and implemented a boost in unemployment insurance, some 70% of workers were receiving more money on unemployment than they could have received from their jobs. The result, predictably, was workers refusing to return to work in order to continue receiving unemployment....We're already seeing improvement since the $600 unemployment boost expired. Between July 25 and August 15, new unemployment claims dropped by nearly a third and in some states by nearly 70%. Nearly 2 million people left the unemployment program during this time, as well. If this trend continues, new unemployment claims could reach pre-COVID-19 levels by the end of September."

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Sept 4, 2020


9.4.20 - Gold: Most Stable Long-Term Currency

Gold last traded at $1,927 an ounce. Silver at $26.57 an ounce.

NEWS SUMMARY: Precious metal prices traded mixed Friday on a firmer dollar after jobs data. U.S. stocks resumed their sharpest decline since last March, led by the ongoing tech sell-off.

Gold Is the Most Stable Currency in the Long-Term -FX Empire/Yahoo Finance
"If gold didn't retain its purchasing power, why would long-term investors and central banks store it in their vaults for decades?...The truth is that gold retains its value, and the stability of gold's purchasing power in the long-term is the main reason to own it....On the classic gold standard, which lasted until 1914, gold was officially money and thus the unit of account. In such a monetary system gold's stability was self-regulated....After the gold standard, gold has become more volatile, but the legacy of its stability is still with us. Because gold is the only international currency that can't be debased, people around the world keep holding on to it as a store of value. This makes gold the most stable currency in the long-term. Since the 1930s, when the U.S. dollar has been slowly decoupled from gold, the dollar lost 99% of its value against gold. This is the fate of 'paper' currencies."

national debt Allow Us to Present the Pandemic Bill -Editors/Wall Street Journal
"We interrupt this regularly scheduled presidential campaign for a word from your bill collector. The spoilsports at the Congressional Budget Office reported Wednesday that the U.S. government will soon have a debt burden equal to America's entire gross domestic product...One way or another, we'll be paying this off for the rest of our lives. CBO reports that the lockdown recession and the explosion of spending this year will increase the budget deficit for fiscal 2020, which ends Sept. 30, to $3.3 trillion. At 16% of GDP, this will be the largest annual deficit since 1945, when there was merely a world war. The pandemic has become the fiscal equivalent of a war thanks to the economic lockdowns and the competition by both parties to ease voter anxieties with cash in an election year. The political class seems to agree this is a price worth paying since neither party wants to talk about it in the election campaign. The fight over the next phase of coronavirus relief has been whether to spend another $3 trillion (House Democrats) or merely $1 trillion or so (the White House). Either of those numbers would send the deficit higher than the 8.6% of GDP that CBO projects for fiscal 2021....Debt held by the public is important because it is the amount America has to pay back with interest. CBO's public debt estimates don't include entitlements like Social Security and Medicare, which are political promises rather than binding contracts. They also exclude the liabilities of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, the housing giants guaranteed by taxpayers. And they don't include the $1.5 trillion or so in student-loan debt that may end up in Uncle Sam's lap if Joe Biden wins....Sorry to spoil the spending fun, but there's no such thing as free borrowing. Even the U.S., with all its economic power, can't keep piling up debt forever."

How 14 Policy Scenarios Might Change After the U.S. Election -Bloomberg Quint
"1. China - Biden wins: Biden teams with Europe to restrain China. 'The Democrats are more likely to link economic, strategic, and human-rights concerns, taking relations into an even more difficult period.' Trump wins: Trump keeps the heat on China, though having won reelection he could revert to 'my buddy Xi.' 2. Budget - Democratic Senate: Still lacking 60 votes, Dems use reconciliation procedure to pass tax- and spending-related legislation with a simple majority that's exempt from filibuster. Trump wins: Lame-duck status could set in quickly. 'Generally second-term presidents who don't have a strong base in Congress tend to not get a whole lot done.' 3. Health Care - Trump wins: He pursues a lawsuit to have the Affordable Care Act declared unconstitutional. 4. Social Justice Biden wins: Dems push a policing bill that conditions federal aid on more training and accountability for officers. Congress shores up the social safety net with more Covid-19 aid, food stamps, extended jobless benefits. 5. Regulation Trump wins: A 'bonfire' for rulebooks as Trump continues deregulation. 6. Finance - Biden wins: Fed Chair Jerome Powell, FDIC Chair Jelena McWilliams, and other Trump appointees could stymie re-regulation attempts. 7. Taxes - Democratic Senate: The top individual rate, now 37%, returns to 39.6%. Payroll tax is levied on incomes over $400,000. Capital gains are taxed as ordinary income for high earners. Step-up in cost basis for estate tax is eliminated. Corporate income tax rate rises to 28%, from 21%."

Mortality worldwide: Be generous, live longer -Max Planck Institute
"Sharing is caring: the more resources people share within a society, the better for health and longevity. Fanny Kluge and Tobias Vogt analyzed data for 34 countries on all continents and found a strong association between the amount of money shared between generations and longevity. The act of giving and receiving increases well-being: the recipient benefits directly from the gift, and the giver benefits indirectly through emotional satisfaction. A new study published in the journal PNAS now suggests that those who share more also live longer....The researchers at the Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research in Rostock, Germany, conclude that people are living longer in societies whose members support each other with resources. 'What is new about our study is that for the first time we have combined transfer payments from state and family and evaluated the effect', says Fanny Kluge....Sub-Saharan African countries such as Senegal share the lowest percentage of their lifetime income and have the highest mortality rate of all the countries studied. Those who share little die earlier....Societies in Western European countries and Japan transfer a lot to the youngest and oldest and mortality rates are low. The countries studied in South America also have high transfer payments. There, people share more than 60 percent of their average life income with others."

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Sept 3, 2020


9.3.20 - S&P 500 Surpasses Dot Com Bubble

Gold last traded at $1,933 an ounce. Silver at $26.74 an ounce.

NEWS SUMMARY: Precious metal prices steadied Thursday on bargain-hunting despite a firmer dollar. U.S. stocks paused near lofty highs as investors digested better-than-expected unemployment data.

The Fed is out of control and the gold price will be above $2,000 by year end -Day/Kitco
"Gold and silver prices are going to go higher and end the year above $2,000 an ounce and investors shouldn't worry or quibble over some short-term profit taking and consolidation, according to one fund manager. In an interview with Kitco News, Adrian Day, CEO of Adrian Day Asset Management, said that he remains bullish on gold as the U.S. dollar enters a new long-term down trend because of extremely loose Federal Reserve monetary policy. Day added that it will be impossible for the U.S. central bank to unwind the trillions of dollars it has pumped into financial markets to support the economy that has been devastated by the COVID-19 pandemic. 'Remember the end of 2018, seems so quaint right now, the Fed started to raise rates,' he said. 'They started to increase rates and the stock market had a hissy fit and they immediately reversed. There's that expression when you're a hammer, everything looks like a nail. And that's the way it is with the Fed.' Not only will the Fed be able to unwind its balance sheet, but Day noted that markets are now addicted to monetary policy stimulus and more will be needed to continue to support equity markets. 'The fed is out of control. Jerome Powell himself has said there are no limits. There are no red lines,' he said."

Powell The Fed's Dangerous New Strategy -Buiter/Project Syndicate
"The US Federal Reserve's recent changes to its monetary policy framework are ill-advised and potentially harmful....The real trouble starts with the FOMC's reinterpretation of 'maximum employment.' The press release states that the committee's policy decision will be informed by its 'assessments of the shortfalls of employment from its maximum level.' The FOMC's original strategy statement, adopted in 2012, referred to 'deviations from its maximum level.' This new asymmetric interpretation is extremely worrying. It suggests either that maximum employment is achieved only when every working-age person has a full-time job plus any desired overtime....According to the press release, the Fed now 'seeks to achieve inflation that averages 2% over time.' Therefore, 'following periods when inflation has been running persistently below 2%, appropriate monetary policy will likely aim to achieve inflation moderately above 2% for some time.' This means that past inflation will influence the Fed's current and future monetary policy. But past inflation is a bygone issue and should be irrelevant for formulating policy - unlike current and expected inflation, which have normative content and can be influenced by policy....Then there are the Fed's major errors of omission. For starters, the FOMC does not mention enhancing its monetary-policy arsenal by removing the effective lower bound (ELB) on policy rates....The FOMC's second major error of omission is the absence of any discussion of the Fed's failure, since the outbreak of the COVID-19 pandemic, to enlarge and change the composition of its balance sheet to the fullest possible extent to support economic activity....The Fed should scrap this new approach, and instead make full and effective use of the policy instruments it has - or could have - at its disposal."

The S&P 500's Valuation Just Surpassed The Dot Com Bubble -Zero Hedge
"It's official: a few weeks after the S&P hit an all time high price erasing all the losses from the covid crisis, which just so happened was the best thing to ever happen to large corporations and the ultra wealthy, moments ago the S&P500's forward P/E multiple also hit an all time high, surpassing the dot com peak of 27x, printing at 27.02x last. So with the S&P now trading at an all time absolute price and a record high forward P/E multiple, it also means that the S&P500 is now the most disconnected - to the upside - from both the median and average Wall Street target on record, which are 3,200 and 3,198, respectively. And the cherry on top: with the S&P at 3,550 currently, it is above all but two of the sellside strategist forecasts tracked by Bloomberg, which would be Cantor Fitzgerald, and Goldman, which hiked its price target from 3,000 to 3,600 two weeks ago (the S&P is even above the perpetually cheerful permabull Tom Lee's target of 3,525). This means that either the S&P will reverse and soon, or we will see a cascade of price target revisions higher - similar to what we have observed with both AAPL and TSLA amid a panicked scramble to upgrade the runaway stocks."

Americans are saving more than just money by not commuting -CNN Business
"The pandemic lockdown has killed the work commute. And as the number of miles people travel every day has collapsed, commuters have saved themselves billions of dollars. In June, Americans traveled nearly 37 billion - yes, billion - fewer miles than in the same month last year, according to the Federal Highway Administration. Usually, the number of miles traveled peaks in the summer when people go on vacation, but of course this summer is quite different. That's translating to a lot of cost savings: Workers who once commuted by car but now work from home are saving a total of $758 million per day, according to research from freelancing platform Upwork. Over the months since the pandemic hit the US, that figure amounts to a cumulative $90 billion. The savings comprise gas, car maintenance and repairs, as well as the costs that driving imposes on society, such as congestion and polluting, said Adam Ozimek, chief economist at Upwork. But the biggest factor in this calculation is time. It's hard to put a number on the literal value of your time, but the Department of Transportation provides an estimate, Ozimek noted: Every hour of commuting by car costs Americans $12.50. That adds up, given Americans' long commutes. Americans spent an average of 54.2 minutes commuting daily in 2018, according to Ozimek....'I definitely think we'll see a migration from higher cost of living to lower cost of living,' Ozimek said."

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Sept 2, 2020


9.2.20 - Race for CV-19 Vaccine Gets Dirty

Gold last traded at $1,940 an ounce. Silver at $27.36 an ounce.

NEWS SUMMARY: Precious metal prices fell Wednesday pressured by rising global stock markets and a firmer dollar. U.S. stocks traded mostly higher as traders took profits out of the high-flying tech sector and bought shares in more beaten-down parts of the market.

The Perfect Economic Storm To Stack Up On Gold -Seeking Alpha
"Recently, gold has seen a lot of movements and volatility. With its price is about to return to the level of $2,000, could it be the right time to take profit now, or is it better to wait until it records a new high? If I were you, I would simply buy-and-hold and completely ignore the negligible fluctuations, because I am telling you that gold could hit $14,000 or even more. It is understandable that it may sound a little bit speculative, but consider the rise of value will not be linear but exponential. We are entering a financial crisis that is the greatest the world has ever seen. But on the opposite side of every crisis, there always is an opportunity. The important thing is: Are you well-prepared and have the resources to play around when the moment comes?...I have always preached to hold at least a small proportion of gold in the portfolio not simply for hedging against inflation, but for a monetary catastrophe such as the collapse of the currency system....History has taught us the fiat system would often end up disastrously, and it is just a matter of time before people will wake up from the American dream to realize they are living in the world of excessive debt, thus creating a panic that will ever change the tide of the currency system. In fact, the fiat system is so fragile that once the Fed loses its credibility, people would immediately dump their money and rush to something like gold that has intrinsic value....Currently, there is an increasing trend that countries are becoming less reliant on the dollar...which could pose a challenge to it as being the world's leading currency should the trend continue....It is always worth knowing that the world is playing with fire, sooner or later it will hurt. Hence, why would anyone ever trade their gold, the real money, for fiat, the fake money? Ultimately, the intelligent investor is to diversify his asset classes and always include at least a small proportion of gold in his portfolio for wealth preservation in an unexpected disaster."

vaccine How the race for a Covid-19 vaccine is getting dirty -The Guardian
"Scientists worldwide are working against the clock to find a viable coronavirus vaccine - but are corners being cut for the sake of political gain and profit? Researchers around the world set to work building vaccines against Covid-19, as the disease became known, and the first candidate entered human trials on 16 March; it was joined, as the months passed, by dozens of others. Scientists were jubilant, and they had every right to be. They'd broken all vaccinology records to get to that point. But then tensions began to surface among the team members, and lately even the most distracted spectator will have noticed that they appear to be trying to nobble each other openly on the track. With accusations that the Russians and Chinese hacked research groups in other countries, biotech executives criticized for cashing in on their own, as yet unapproved vaccines, and Russia approving a vaccine that is still in clinical trials, the quest for a vaccine seems to have turned sour. Political pressure has been mounting for scientists to deliver an economy-saving result, and reports of corner-cutting emerge daily....On 2 August, Steven Salzberg, a computational biologist at Johns Hopkins University in Baltimore, Maryland, suggested in Forbes magazine that a promising vaccine be rolled out to a wider pool of volunteers before clinical trials had been completed, triggering an outcry (and some sympathy) that prompted him to recant the next day....The accumulation of such incidents has left many scientists feeling deeply uneasy....One potential risk with some kinds of vaccine, for example, is that they can cause the recipient to experience a worse bout of the disease if that person becomes infected naturally later on....If current forecasts are correct, a Covid-19 vaccine will be available in 2021 - smashing all records for vaccine development - and there will be many more reasons to trust it than not to."

Protectionism and "Weak Dollar" Trade Policy -Mises.org
"'Too many dollars chasing too few goods'...was the catchphrase used to describe the inflationary times, and it would be the last time monetary issues/policy would make sense to me for many, many years....Technically, we don't need money to survive. We simply need to be able to produce a good or service of some value to others. Since trying to translate that into terms of what another person produces (bartering) tends to gum up the gears of commerce, we have money. At various points in time, salt has been used as currency, as has tobacco. George Washington wrote about using wampum. Whatever is in steady supply at the time, and holds an agreed-upon value can be used as money. For much of our history, it was gold....But politicians aren't content unless they're manipulating the value of money to political ends....The theory goes that a devalued dollar increases exports by making them cheaper than foreign goods in international markets. There is truth to that, but there are also drawbacks. First, workers will be paid in dollars that are worth less, offsetting gains possibly realized by exporting industries. Second, other countries could very well view this as currency manipulation with the aim of gaining such a trade advantage and therefore move to weaken their own currencies in response....This demonstrates a lack of faith in the capacity of people in existing American industries to compete, in the ability of displaced workers to adjust, and an obliviousness to the fact that we're kneecapping the ability of American innovators to access capital to push forward into new frontiers. This tendency toward protectionism has shades of countries that go full-bore into state control....Politicians see an opportunity to ride to the 'rescue' when inflation-induced bubbles burst, and that opportunity is too valuable to give up. And it's only going to get worse the more power easy money advocates, like modern monetary theorists (MMT), gain. The printing press will go into overdrive and the dollar will further fall in value."

Trump vs. Biden: Which will restore jobs lost in the pandemic faster? -USA Today
"At their political conventions this month, President Donald Trump and former Vice President Joe Biden laid out starkly divergent visions of how to dig the U.S. economy out of the deepest downturn since the Great Depression amid the COVID-19 pandemic. Trump promised more cuts to taxes and regulations, and he dangled the prospect of additional tariffs against China....'We will continue to reduce taxes and regulations at levels not seen before.' Biden vowed to raise taxes on the wealthy and corporations and use the money to spend trillions to upgrade the nation's infrastructure and shift to a clean-energy future, make housing and child care more affordable and improve education, among other proposals. Some top economists say Biden's plan is better-suited to recovering the remaining 13 million jobs lost in the pandemic-induced recession. 'The goal of the next president will be to get back to full employment as fast as possible,' says Mark Zandi, chief economist of Moody's Analytics....But some economists argue Trump's free-enterprise approach will more effectively unleash business owners' animal spirits. 'Overall, I think Trump will be better for the U.S. economy,' says economist Chris Edwards of the libertarian Cato Institute. 'Trump will be better from a free-market perspective.'"

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9.1.20 - The Fed vs. Judy Shelton And Gold

Gold last traded at $1,966 an ounce. Silver at $27.92 an ounce.

NEWS SUMMARY: Precious metal prices rose Tuesday on safe-haven buying and a weaker dollar. U.S. stocks rose slightly as traders hoped momentum would continue following a strong advance in August.

The Federal Reserve vs. Judy Shelton And Gold -Williams/FX Empire
"Those in favor of Judy Shelton's approval by Congress, pursuant to her nomination to the Federal Reserve Board Of Governors, should not be surprised by the torrent of criticism directed at her. A letter published and signed by former Federal Reserve officials and staffers called on the Senate to reject her nomination, stating that 'Ms. Shelton's views are so extreme and ill-considered as to be an unnecessary distraction from the tasks at hand"¦' Her 'extreme' views were referred to in a general statement of condemnation...'She has advocated for a return to the gold standard; she has questioned the need for federal deposit insurance; she has even questioned the need for a central bank at all.' Would these specific views have been considered extreme a century ago? No. Are they extreme now? No. Then why all the fuss? The statement by former Fed officials has been published openly and is prompted out of fear. Fear of discovery and exposure; and fear of a possible end to the biggest Ponzi scheme of all time....Probably the most blatant condemnation of Judy Shelton comes in an article by Steven Rattner, titled 'God Help Us If Judy Shelton Joins The Fed'. For some people, it might make more sense to say 'God Help Us If Judy Shelton's Nomination Is Not Confirmed'....The truth is that the Federal Reserve has been mismanaging the economy for over one hundred years. The effects of their infinite money creation have destroyed the value of the US dollar which is now worth only $.01 cent compared to $1.00 when the Fed assumed command....Under a gold standard, accompanied by convertibility, gold acts as a restraint on a free-spending government. As it appears now, Judy Shelton brings a refreshingly different perspective to central banking; and offers the potential for positive change - from the inside."

chart Ultra-Rich Investor Group Panic Hoards Cash -Zero Hedge
"In an upside-down world of activist central banks jawboning main equity indexes to record highs with terrible market breadth...There's one group of savvy investors, spooked by the continuing virus-induced downturn, panic hoarding an 'unprecedented' amount of cash, reported Bloomberg. Tiger 21, an investor club of 800 high net worth investors founded in 1999 by Michael Sonnenfeldt, raised cash holdings to 19% of their total assets, which is up from 12% at the start of the pandemic. The investor group believes market turbulence could persist until June 2021....The record cash hoarding by this group of centimillionaires comes as market breadth is horrible, and a growth scare could rear its ugly head in the near term and trigger a stock market correction....FAAMG stocks are up on the year, accounting for about 35% year-to-date gains for the S&P500; while the 495 other stocks in the main equity index have slumped by 5%."

A Paycheck For Everyone Whether You Work Or Not? -Forbes/Forbes
"It's called universal basic income, and the idea is gaining ground here and in Europe, especially with Covid-19 hitting economies so hard. The government would pay every adult a certain amount of money every month, whether you work or not. Democratic party activists love the idea. So do some Republicans. The Pope came out in favor of the notion. A candidate for the Democratic presidential nomination, Andrew Yang, advocated paying every adult $1,000 a month. He didn't win, but his idea is catching on. Italy has a minimum-income measure that tops up one's income if it falls below a certain level. Spain is mulling over something similar. While Yang's proposal sounds enticing - who wouldn't want an extra $12,000 a year? - it would do real harm. Let's make clear that we are not talking about such safety-net programs as food stamps, unemployment benefits or Medicaid. A guaranteed income would be corrosive to people's work ethic, especially as politicians raised the benefits whenever elections rolled around. It would eat away at the crucial link between effort and reward and would lure many people away from pursuing more productive lives. This is wrong, morally and economically. Work is critical to making our lives meaningful. It gives us purpose. It provides structure and encourages discipline, helping us to look beyond the immediate moment and think about the future. It encourages the can-do spirit that is unique to the American culture. Work produces the resources that we consume and the innovations that improve our standard of living. Then there are the major practical problems of implementing such a program. It would be hideously expensive. It's estimated that Yang's scheme would cost $3 trillion a year....A more constructive approach would be to reform and expand the Earned Income Tax Credit, which is, in effect, a rebate of the payroll tax. This would give lower-income individuals higher take-home pay, tax-free."

For a Few Destinations, Tourism Is Doing Better Than Ever -Wall Street Journal
"The big vacation is out. America is going camping (and boating and hiking and fishing) instead. The pandemic pummeled tourist hubs across the country this summer as families shunned the usual vacation hot spots, canceling flights and scrapping plans for beach getaways. But for some rustic destinations within a day's drive of big U.S. cities, the coronavirus crisis unleashed a boom....Stories are coming from parklands and lesser-known vacation spots as families steer clear of airports, hotels and big beach resorts. On a national level, these shifts have led consumers to cut travel spending to just half what they spent last summer, according to the U.S. Travel Association....Camping is revving up at national parks around the country, despite limits on campsite operations. After 83 days of shutdown, Yosemite reopened on June 11 with capacity limits and all but two of its campsites closed. Nationally, spending on air travel during the week ending August 19 was down around 73% from the same week in 2019, according to Earnest Research....One big reason for that increased demand is that with many workplaces and schools operating on a remote basis, families have much more flexible schedules. 'Day of the week does not matter - we're getting Sunday to Wednesday, which normally wouldn't happen,' said Ms. Refosco, who co-owns Taylor-Made with her husband and brother."

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8.31.20 - Fed's Inflation Policy Boosts Gold -CNBC

Gold last traded at $1,967 an ounce. Silver at $28.20 an ounce.

NEWS SUMMARY: Precious metal prices rose Monday on safe haven buying and a continued weakening of the U.S. dollar. U.S. stocks traded mixed with the major stock indexes ending the month with strong gains supported by ongoing accommodative Fed policies.

How the Fed's inflation policy shift impacts the gold rally -CNBC
"Gold is looking even better after the Federal Reserve decided to tolerate higher inflation. The precious metal rallied more than 2% on Friday morning in the aftermath of the historic announcement Thursday by Fed Chair Jerome Powell that the central bank's inflation target could exceed 2% to offset stretches of weaker inflation. The previous target has been an average of 2% over time. The change implies the central bank could keep interest rates lower for longer. Delano Saporu, founder of New Street Advisors, says support for money markets from the Fed should keep investors interested in gold. 'You still have money supply increasing,' Saporu told CNBC's 'Trading Nation' on Thursday. 'Safe haven investors are looking for another way to unlock value. With rates being as low as they are, you're going to see some of them turn to gold to put that money to work.'"

groceries Could bartering become the new buying in a changed world? -BBC
"Amid economic uncertainty - and a desire to connect as we distance - bartering is experiencing an unprecedented rise. Could it stick around? London-based nurse Marjorie Dunne joined Barter United Kingdom after spending five days in hospital with coronavirus in April. The group, which she originally joined to get rid of a few unwanted items unearthed during spring cleaning, ended up helping Dunne through one of the toughest times of her life...Members of Barter United Kingdom, which started on 23 April and had 1,300 members as of early August, swapped curries, roti and cakes for Dunne's dresses and DVDs. Around the world, people have been turning to swapping, trading and bartering during the coronavirus pandemic, whether to do their bit for the local community, save money or simply source hard-to-find baking ingredients. With economic uncertainty looming and anxiety levels soaring, barter is becoming an emerging alternative solution to getting by - and staying busy - amid Covid-19....'I asked myself what happens when there's no more money? Barter was a natural solution to that,' says Marlene Dutta, who started the Barter for a Better Fiji group on 21 April. Its membership is just under 190,000 - more than 20% of Fiji's population. Items changing hands have run the gamut - pigs for kayaks, a violin for a leather satchel and doughnuts for building bricks - but the most commonly requested items have been groceries and food....'The economic hardships people are coping with are driving the rediscovery of bartering,' says Shera Dalin, co-author of The Art of Barter. 'The same thing happened during the Great Recession. When times get harder, people turn to barter.' Similarly, more than 300 barter organizations cropped up during the early years of the Great Depression in the United States, says Dalin....Along with goods, some people have been trading another precious commodity that they may have had more of recently - time. 'Time banking', which started in Japan in the 1970s, and in the US in 1992, is seeing a jump in popularity. Members of a time bank spend one hour helping another member, and can receive one hour of help in return. People offer and receive things such as piano lessons, painting services or language teaching...'We're not going to change the world - we're not even going to change the whole city - but, actually, that one hour you give to help somebody else will make a difference to them.'"

Subprime Mortgages Fall Massively Delinquent Leaving Taxpayers On Hook As Housing Market Splits In Two -Zero Hedge
"On one side: land rush by a few hundred thousand home buyers. On the other: millions of homeowners with delinquent mortgages. The Federal Housing Administration (FHA) prides itself in insuring subprime mortgages with, as it says, 'low down payments, low closing costs,' and 'easy credit qualifying' - all true. Of its active portfolio of 8 million mortgages that it insures, 17% were delinquent in July, the highest rate in FHA history. In many metros, the delinquency rates of FHA mortgages are above 20%; and in two metros, the delinquency rates exceed 27%....During the term of forbearance - six months, under the CARES Act, extendable by another six months- the borrower isn't making payments, but the missed interest and principal payments are added to the mortgage balance and will need to be paid somehow. A FICO credit score below 620 is considered 'subprime.' The FHA insures mortgages of borrowers with credit scores well below that. If the borrower has a credit score of at least 580, the FHA will accept down payments of only 3.5%. If the FICO score is below 580, no problem, but then down payment is 10%. Many of the people whose mortgages the FHA insures have lost their jobs or had had their hours or work reduced....The widespread home price declines that occurred during the subprime crisis of Housing Bust have not happened yet. And that's why at the moment no one is panicking about these sky-high delinquency rates. But when millions of homeowners cannot make the mortgage payments and have to put these millions of homes on the market - forced sellers - they trigger a sudden surge of supply of homes for sale, and the entire supply-and-demand equation, and thereby the pricing environment, are going to change....There is a boom on one side of the housing market, and there is already a bust forming on the other side of the housing market."

The Trump Disruption -Editors/Wall Street Journal
"When Donald Trump won the Presidency four years ago, half of America gnashed its teeth or cried and even supporters who cheered weren't sure what to expect. Four years later our verdict is that he has been better on policy than we feared but worse on personal behavior than we hoped. Whether Americans re-elect him depends on how they assess that political balance sheet....Americans who heard him ask for a second term Thursday night were trying to make sense of what has been a raucous and disruptive Presidency. Last week's virtual GOP convention spent hours educating voters about Trump Administration successes, and many are real, starting with the pre-Covid-19 economy...This success was due to Mr. Trump's adoption of conventional GOP economics, not his trade or immigration agenda. The President contracted out tax reform to Congress, especially Paul Ryan in the House and Pat Toomey in the Senate, and they delivered. Mr. Trump also hired a cast of deregulators who liberated the economy from burdens on energy and more. The economy kicked into higher gear, and the resulting tight labor market produced strong wage gains for lower-skilled workers left behind by the Obama-Biden years. Note that this happened without the income redistribution schemes favored on the left and increasingly the right....Mr. Trump is also the first President since Ronald Reagan to try to rein in the administrative state...These policies are more likely to be sustained by the more than 200 conservative judges Mr. Trump has appointed....It's impossible to assess Mr. Trump's behavior outside the context of the often unhinged opposition. We will never know how his Presidency might have gone without the Russia collusion accusations. But we do know the FBI, and the Obama Administration, knew early on that there was no evidence for the claims. They nonetheless fed the media stories to cripple him....He has a chance to win another four years if voters conclude that his disruption is less risky than the Biden-Sanders Democratic agenda."

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8.28.20 - Why $5000 Gold May Become A Reality

Gold last traded at $1,972 an ounce. Silver at $27.77 an ounce.

NEWS SUMMARY: Precious metal prices rose sharply Friday on dollar weakness after the Fed promised to keep interest rates low despite rising inflation. U.S stocks rose as investors cheered the Fed's dovish comments and additional monetary stimulus, which is likely on the way.

Why $5000 Gold Could Soon Become A Reality -Yahoo Finance
"The post-COVID 'new normal' and a flood of stimulus packages from the Federal Reserve have crushed the dollar and pushed gold to record heights. And with the real economy in a precarious situation, gold prices could soon hit $3000, $4000 or even $5,000 dollars per ounce. Investors of all types are piling into safe haven assets in unprecedented numbers, and when even the most gold skeptic investors are starting to bet big on bullion, one may conclude that things have fundamentally changed....Goldman Sachs has revised its 12-month forecast to $2300 per ounce - or a 20% gain. UBS has a $2,000 price target on gold for the end of September, while Deutsche Bank is targeting $2,000-$2,100. JPMorgan has a $2,000 price target, and Bank of America says gold prices could hit $3,000-an-ounce over the next 18 months."

the fed Fed's Easy Money Pumps Up Winners Like Apple and Housing -Wall Street Journal
"Winning investments this year include technology stocks, gold and, umm, lumber. Yes, lumber: pieces of wood may not be as glitzy as Apple or bullion. But like them, lumber and other assets linked to home construction have been big beneficiaries of the Federal Reserve. Helping home-building is one obvious way to help the economy...The Fed's new way of thinking laid out by Chairman Jerome Powell on Thursday suggests easy money is here for the long run. The link from low rates to housing is obvious. Easy money from the Fed dragged the standard 30-year mortgage rate below 3% last month for the first time...Add in lockdown home improvement projects, renewed trade frictions with Canada and low inventories, and it is understandable that lumber prices have more than doubled....So the Fed's easy money pumps up the stock prices of the winners, but does little for the companies that investors can see are suffering, such as airlines, clothing stores and anything connected to tourism...The stock market's divisions are huge. The performance of cheap and expensive stocks has widened more this year than ever before....Housing, home builders and lumber have joined the pandemic winners thanks to Fed policy. The rest of the economy will have to wait."

Amid pandemic, freedoms are disappearing -Paul/Washington Examiner
"At the start of the pandemic, we saw businesses across the country forced to close their doors due to city, state, or federal guidelines. This resulted in an unemployment rate that skyrocketed to levels not seen since the Great Depression. The public began finding itself forced into poverty by the very government that was founded on the principles of freedom and self-determination. Thankfully, some did not sit silently by. We saw individuals rightfully demand to be able to go back to work so that they could provide for their families. Unsurprisingly, the far-left media and too many elected officials who were more than happy to gain additional powers over their constituents panned the protesters for fighting for their rights. Then came the mask mandates. Since April 3, the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention has recommended people wear masks in public. A public policy recommendation is one thing, but then we started seeing executive orders across the country mandating people wear face masks or risk a civil penalty....So, we have already given up our right to go to work and have sadly given the government a precedent to decide whether or not our jobs are essential. And we have allowed states to force us to wear facial coverings or risk jail time. What comes next?....Bureaucrats and far-left elected officials are intent on controlling every aspect of our lives and are already in the process of taking our rights away piece by piece. Now more than ever, we must stand up and voice support for our liberties before it is too late."

What Efficient Mentorship Looks Like -Harvard Business Review
"The endless string of demanding tasks at work can leave us running on empty - deadlines, meetings, projects, and ongoing training modules all demanding our effort and limiting our time to refuel. As an energy-saving measure, we may cut corners. One task that commonly falls down on the priority list is mentoring...In the face of a pandemic with no end in sight, we must preserve our fuel supplies while we mentor others. It is possible to be a mentor in an efficient manner that benefits mentees, growing their confidence and their network, but also conserves your energy. We call this an approach we call fuel-efficient mentoring...A good place to start is clarifying the baseline expectations...Consider your expectation of mentees' responsibilities, then draft a document of standards and save it for future use. For example: Mentees should be prompt, create the agenda, organize calendar invitations, and complete action items...Provide context, informing the mentee that these standards will provide organization and leadership skills, and keep you, the mentor, focused on their larger needs....To increase fuel efficiency, consider whether or not the problem can be resolved efficiently over email and consider shortening meetings with mentees from 60 minutes to 40 minutes. Move 30-minute meetings to 20- or 10-minute intervals....Group mentoring sessions do not have to be in-person - as we've learned in the Covid-19 era, they work well virtually, with cameras on and audio unmuted. Mentees from different institutions and different geographic locations can conveniently collaborate under the mentor's guidance....Finally, now that you've realized and set expectations as well as changed the foundation of your meetings, look at how other obligations can double as mentoring opportunities. Consider a work-related or professional development event, such as a virtual webinar or mixer or even a board meeting a chance to invite your mentee. During a pandemic, virtual opportunities are effective and abundant."

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8.27.20 - Restoration of the American Dream

Gold last traded at $1,939 an ounce. Silver at $27.13 an ounce.

NEWS SUMMARY: Precious metal prices traded lower after the Fed vowed inflation won't lift interest rates. U.S. stocks cheered the central bank's decision to let inflation run 'moderately' above its 2% goal.

Gold Is Still a Buy -Dyson/Rogue Economics
"My core thesis is that the U.S. government is broke. It is $26 trillion in debt and it cannot roll over - or maintain- these debts anymore without the Federal Reserve's money printer...No one says the U.S. government is broke yet. But they will soon (in the next 10 years). Except they'll call it a 'sovereign debt crisis' or something official-sounding like that. The Fed's balance sheet is currently at $7 trillion. The expansion of the Fed's balance sheet has slowed this summer, but it must soon start rising again"¦ or else the Treasury's borrowing will cause interest rates to rise, which neither the Fed nor the Treasury will tolerate. So for now, we're just waiting for the end game to play out.....The trade of the decade - or maybe 'trade of the generation' would be a better term for it - is to sell stocks and buy gold. Even though gold recently made a new all-time high, the U.S. dollar started slipping, and the Fed's money-printing exploded this year, these trends are just beginning. My guess is gold will be far north of $10,000 an ounce - and the Dow-to-Gold ratio below 5 - by the time the U.S. government completes its bankruptcy and debt restructuring. So is gold still a 'buy' with the gold price near $2,000 and the Dow-to-Gold ratio around 14? Yes. Absolutely."

USA Restoration of the American Dream -Regan/American Consequences
"My grandfather only finished the 7th grade. He worked most of his life as the night watchman at the City Yard in Portsmouth, New Hampshire"¦ a former Navy shipping town on the southern coast of the state. One hundred hours a week"¦ at 50 cents an hour. That equated to a weekly paycheck of $50"¦ And, being a typical Irishman, he had eight little mouths at home to feed. Those eight little kids knew what it was like to be really poor. They went without shoes in the summer and wore donated heavy coats in the winter"¦ But their father worked hard and always told them they could be anything they wanted to be. And, you know what? They believed him. I thought about my grandfather as I watched the Republican National Convention this week. Republicans are seeking to remind Americans of the opportunities that make our country so unique. Yet, reading the liberal media's headlines in real time"¦ I was struck by the venom. 'GOP pushes falsehoods and fear at convention,' says the New York Times. Meanwhile, the Washington Post ran breaking headlines that read: 'Republicans abandon promises of an optimistic convention and try to recast accusations of racism.'....I think we can all agree"¦ Every American must be afforded the opportunity to access the American Dream"¦However, the Left, through unfortunate policy choices, has increased the economic challenges in poor, urban communities....Somewhere deep inside us, regardless of party, I think we all believe in American greatness...Only in America, as they say....My grandfather loved this country and all it enabled him and his family to achieve - because, fundamentally, America is good."

Melania Trump, Tiffany and a Pardon: Takeaways From the RNC's Second Night -Wall Street Journal
"You would be forgiven for thinking the Republican National Convention was being hosted at the White House. After trying to hold the convention in Charlotte, N.C., and then in Jacksonville, Fla., before giving up amid rising coronavirus cases, President Trump appears to have settled on the People's House as his backdrop. The convention was partly pretaped and partly filmed live in a Washington auditorium with no in-person audience, but in the last two days has featured several clips from inside the White House as well as appearances by top administration officials such as Secretary of State Mike Pompeo - a sharp break in tradition that has drawn criticism and at least one investigation from Democrats and ethics advocates. On Thursday, the president will accept the nomination on the White House's South Lawn. The second of four nights of the Republican National Convention included speeches from several Trump family members, including first lady Melania Trump, Eric Trump and Tiffany Trump, as well as several business owners from the Midwest, which includes some of the most contested states in the presidential campaign....Some of our top takeaways from night two....Mrs. Trump delivered her address from the Rose Garden on Tuesday evening. Earlier in the night, there was a pretaped video of the president and acting Homeland Security Secretary Chad Wolf holding a formal naturalization ceremony in the White House....The campaign has also sought to use the powers of the presidency to portray the president as a compassionate leader dedicated to criminal-justice reform. In a video early in the program, Mr. Trump announced he was issuing a pardon for a convention speaker, Jon Ponder, who was convicted of bank robbery and became an advocate for felon rehabilitation....Tuesday night's program included several speeches and videos aimed at reaching out to two demographics the campaign has struggled to win over: Black voters and women."

America's Coming Double Dip -Roach/Project Syndicate
"Soaring financial markets are blithely indifferent to lingering vulnerabilities in the US economy. But the impact of consumers' fear of COVID-19 on pandemic-sensitive services are unlikely to subside, undermining the case for the uninterrupted recovery that investors seem to expect. The double dip is not a dance. It is the time-honored tendency of the US economy to relapse into recession after a temporary recovery. Over the years, it has happened far more often than not. Notwithstanding frothy financial markets, which currently are discounting the nirvana of an uninterrupted V-shaped recovery, there is a compelling case for another double dip in the aftermath of America's devastating COVID-19 shock. The daunting history of the US business cycle warns against complacency. Double dips - defined simply as a decline in quarterly real GDP following a temporary rebound - have occurred in eight of the 11 recessions since the end of World War II. As a general rule, the more severe the downturn, the greater the damage, the longer the healing, and the higher the likelihood of a double dip....Financial markets aren't the least bit worried about a relapse, owing largely to unprecedented monetary easing, which has evoked the time-honored maxim: 'don't fight the Fed.'...This could be wishful thinking. The basic problem is the virus, not the need for Fed-induced liquidity injections or the temporary support of a fiscal package. Monetary and fiscal measures can temper financial markets' distress, but they can do little, if anything, to resolve the underlying health security issues weighing on the real economy....Failure to contain the virus underscores the distinct possibility of aftershocks...Yet frothy financial markets are wedded to the narrative of a classic V-shaped recovery. The rhymes of history suggest a very different outcome."

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8.26.20 - Covid Lockdowns: Overly Blunt and Costly

Gold last traded at $1,949 an ounce. Silver at $27.44 an ounce.

NEWS SUMMARY: Precious metal prices rebounded Wednesday as investors stepped in to buy the dip. U.S. stocks traded mixed on upbeat economic data, declining Covid cases and rising vaccine hopes.

Investors jump into gold as tensions between China and U.S. increase -Kitco
"Rising geopolitical tensions between the U.S. and China are giving gold a boost late Wednesday morning as prices have pushed well off their session lows. December gold futures last traded at $1,947 an ounce, up more than 1% on the day. The rally comes as the U.S. dollar also loses momentum, falling to a session low around 93 points. According to media reports, the Chinese military launched two missiles, including an 'aircraft-carrier killer,' into the South China Sea on Wednesday morning. According to sources close to the Chinese military, the missile launched was a clear warning to the United States. The reports said that the Chinese government is retaliating a day after they said that a U.S. U-2 spy plane entered a no-fly zone off the country 's north coast. Phillip Streible, market strategist at Blue Line Futures, said that investors are laser focused on what Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell will say on Thursday but the latest geopolitical development shows that gold is playing a much bigger safe-haven role. 'Nobody is talking about this yet but gold is definitely getting a boost from renewed geopolitical uncertainty,' he said. Gold investors have been waiting anxiously for more than a week to hear what Powell has to say about the state the economy and the potential for new stimulus measure."

chart The Great Inflation Debate Is Heating Up With Trillions at Stake -Bloomberg/Yahoo Finance
"There's hardly any question that carries greater weight in economics right now, or divides the financial world more sharply, than whether inflation is on the way back. One camp is convinced that the no-expense-spared fight against Covid-19 has put developed economies on course for rising prices on a scale they haven't seen in decades. The other one says the virus is exacerbating the conditions of the past dozen years or so - when deflation, rather than overheating, has been the big threat. The debate touches every area of policy, from trade rivalries to unemployment benefits, and everyone has an interest in the outcome. Governments and central banks may face pressure to curtail their pandemic relief efforts, already worth some $20 trillion according to Bank of America, if they trigger a spike in prices. Workers and consumers will see the impact in wage packets and household bills. More than $40 trillion of retirement savings is at risk of erosion if inflation returns.... In the bond markets and among consumers, measures of expected inflation have edged higher. But the data that will ultimately settle the question could take years to trickle in....'Today's policy measures are injecting cash flows that will directly raise the broader measures of money,' Goodhart and Manoj Pradhan of Talking Heads Macro wrote in a postscript to their book 'The Great Demographic Reversal,' published this year. The inevitable outcome, as lockdowns ease and recovery ensues, will be 'a surge in inflation.'....One reason why many analysts expect higher inflation is simply because central banks, the guardians of price stability in the low-inflation era, are more willing than ever to let it rise."

The Fed's Only Economic Solution Is to 'Print' Money -Bonner/Rogue Economics
"A note about an important Federal Reserve meeting from CNBC: 'Heading into Jackson Hole we are confident Chair Powell will use his speech Thursday to tee up a profoundly consequential and risk-friendly move to soft inflation averaging at the Fed's upcoming September meeting,' wrote Krishna Guha, head of global policy and central bank strategy at Evercore ISI. Guha and his team expect the Fed to 'seek a moderate inflation overshoot during the recovery phase of this cycle' as a way to avert 'Japanification,' or an extended period [of] low growth marked by weak inflation. Along with the inflation move, the Fed also, as indicated by the minutes from its July meeting, appears likely to reinforce its commitment to full employment. The unemployment rate currently sits at 10.2%, down from the 14.7% peak in April but well above the 3.5% pre-pandemic level in February.' What do these clowns think? That they have an inflation valve somewhere in the Fed's Eccles building? That they can open it up just a teensy weensy bit"¦ and get just a little more consumer price inflation? And if the Federal Reserve really could control the unemployment rate, we wouldn't have one in 10 Americans jobless right now. The only thing the Fed can do is either 'print' more money or 'print' less money. It cannot fine tune the economy with just the right amount of inflation. Instead, it will inflate the money supply"¦ and keep inflating the money supply"¦ until, finally, consumer price increases are out of control. And then, with the economy on the edge of disaster"¦ everyone needing more money"¦ and the whole country on the edge of chaos"¦ we are confident that a desperate Fed will do exactly the wrong thing - print even more money in an attempt to keep a lid on things"¦ until the whole system blows up."

New Thinking on Covid Lockdowns: They're Overly Blunt and Costly -Ip/Wall Street Journal
"In response to the novel and deadly coronavirus, many governments deployed draconian tactics never used in modern times: severe and broad restrictions on daily activity that helped send the world into its deepest peacetime slump since the Great Depression. The equivalent of 400 million jobs have been lost world-wide, 13 million in the U.S. alone. Global output is on track to fall 5% this year, far worse than during the financial crisis. Despite this steep price, few policy makers felt they had a choice, seeing the economic crisis as a side effect of the health crisis....Five months later, the evidence suggests lockdowns were an overly blunt and economically costly tool. They are politically difficult to keep in place for long enough to stamp out the virus. The evidence also points to alternative strategies that could slow the spread of the epidemic at much less cost. As cases flare up throughout the U.S., some experts are urging policy makers to pursue these more targeted restrictions and interventions rather than another crippling round of lockdowns. 'We're on the cusp of an economic catastrophe,' said James Stock, a Harvard University economist who, with Harvard epidemiologist Michael Mina and others, is modeling how to avoid a surge in deaths without a deeply damaging lockdown. 'We can avoid the worst of that catastrophe by being disciplined,' Mr. Stock said....'The virus is going to determine when we can safely reopen,' Anthony Fauci, director of the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases, said in April. The Federal Reserve said in late July that 'the path of the economy will depend significantly on the course of the virus.'....If the only acceptable level of infection were zero, lockdowns would have to be severe and potentially repeated, or at least until an effective vaccine or treatment comes along. Most countries have rejected that course....Dr. Mina said the U.S. at the outset could have chosen to prioritize the economy, as Sweden did, and accept the deaths, or it could have chosen to fully prioritize health by staying locked down until new infections were so low that testing and tracing could control new outbreaks, as some northeastern states such as Rhode Island did. Most of the U.S. did neither. The result was 'a complete disaster. We're harming the economy, waffling back and forth between what is right, what is wrong with a slow drift of companies closing their doors for good,' Dr. Mina said....Dr. Mina's and Mr. Stock's team has designed a 'smart' reopening plan based on contact frequency and vulnerability of five demographic groups and 66 economic sectors. It assumes most businesses reopen using industry guidelines on physical distancing, hygiene and working from home; schools reopen; masks are required; and churches, indoor sports venues and bars stay closed."

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8.25.20 - Drowning in Joblessness, Swimming in Cash

Gold last traded at $1,934 an ounce. Silver at $26.59 an ounce.

NEWS SUMMARY: Precious metal prices slipped as short-term investors took profits despite a weaker dollar. U.S. stocks fell as Apple shares declined and traders assessed the market's recent run to all-time highs.

5 key moments from the RNC's first night -Fox News
"The Republican National Convention opened Monday with a variety of speeches that focused on the promise of America's future, countering what the party saw as a negative outlook put forward during last week's Democratic convention. A number of speakers praised the accomplishments of President Trump's administration before the coronavirus pandemic struck while pushing back against Democrats and radical policy proposals. Here are five key moments from the first night of the convention. Kim Klacik says Democrats 'assume that Black people will vote for them, no matter how much they let us down.'....Klacik accused Democrats who run Baltimore of 'incompetence and corruption' and said 'the same cycle of decay' can be seen in other cities run by Democrats....Rep. Jim Jordan, R-Ohio, delivered a brief address in which he rattled off a list of President Trump's accomplishments while in office, many of which fulfilled promises he made during his 2016 campaign - all while facing dogged opposition from his political opponents during the Russia investigation and impeachment....Former U.S. Ambassador to the UN Nikki Haley touched on a number of issues during her convention speech but spent much of it discussing how the country took a stronger stance against foreign enemies under Trump than during the Obama administration. 'Now, the U.N. is not for the faint of heart. It's a place where dictators, murderers and thieves denounce America... and then put their hands out and demand that we pay their bills.'Haley said. 'Well, President Trump put an end to all that.'....Florida businessman Maximo Alvarez warned against the 'empty promises' of socialism during an impassioned speech during the convention....Sen. Tim Scott, R-S.C., delivered a message of hope Monday night, stating that November's election was about more than just Trump and Biden but about American's future and potential."

gold standard Is A New Gold Standard Coming? -Forbes/Forbes
"The volatile value of the dollar and gold may not be issues this November but will be by the 2024 elections. The Federal Reserve is printing too many greenbacks, which means economic trouble ahead. This will set the stage for a debate on whether the U.S. should adopt a gold standard. The U.S. was on a gold standard from the days of George Washington until the early 1970s and achieved the greatest economic record in history. Growth rates have slowed significantly since we severed the dollar's link to the yellow metal. A great debate is coming."

America Is Drowning in Joblessness - and Swimming in Cash -New York Mag
"America remains mired in the worst crisis of unemployment and mass bankruptcy it has seen since the Great Depression - and the worst pandemic it has confronted since 1918. And yet, taken together, U.S. households are wealthier than they have ever been. The dizzying contradictions of the COVID-era economy have long been visible in the disconnect between the rally on Wall Street and shuttered storefronts on Main. But the stock market isn't the only indicator that seems out of place in this period of historic economic hardship. In recent months, thousands of small businesses have blinked out of existence, the unemployment rate has remained in double digits, more than 28 million Americans have been brought to the threshold of eviction, and the number of U.S. children who don't have enough to eat has shot up well past its Great Recession high. And yet: Retail sales have already rebounded to their pre-pandemic level, the housing market is booming and home prices are at all-time highs. One explanation for this dissonance is that the Federal Reserve's energetic support for capital markets has rescued America's rich, even as the 90 percent of Americans who own little-to-no equities muddle through hard times...Thanks to the CARES Act's historic fiscal relief - which provided America's unemployed with $2,400 in monthly income support, and a majority of Americans with $1,200 checks - personal income growth hit a historic high in April....Meanwhile, for many of the truly desperate, the CARES Act's limited, temporary relief proved insufficient - or else, never arrived, as the needless logistical obstacles we've erected between unemployed people and their benefits kept them from accessing aid. The end result of all of this is that we now simultaneously have a large population of non-rich Americans who (for the moment) have more money in the bank than ever before, even as a large minority of the country is suffering from nightmarish material hardship."

Why our concept of retirement is outdated - and how artificial intelligence can help -The Globe and Mail
"Since the dawn of the industrial revolution, our work lives have largely followed a predictable pattern: We learn, work and then retire. But the introduction of artificial intelligence and other advanced technologies promises to challenge this century-old model. In fact, this could be an opportunity to rethink a post-work component of the model that may no longer fit: retirement. The idea of retirement was invented in 1881 by Otto von Bismarck, then-minister president of Prussia. According to Bismarck, 'those who are disabled from work by age and invalidity have a well-grounded claim to care from the state.' The idea took nearly a decade to implement, but the official age of retirement was eventually set at 70. Other countries followed this model. But in the 1880s, the life expectancy in Prussia was also 70. The benefits were designed to last people a year, at best. In Canada, the average retirement age is 64, but the life expectancy is now 82 (and rising). Moreover, the number of people over the age of 65 is expected to double by 2036. Canadians, in combination with a small supplemented income from the federal government (if you qualify), have to save enough money to last almost 20 years without a salary. Studies suggest that early retirement is not good for our health. In 2019, U.S. researchers concluded that 'pension benefits and retirement actually resulted in reduced cognitive performance,' with the largest indicator being delayed recall, an early sign of dementia....Harvard Business Review concluded that the concept of retirement itself may be flawed. The islands of Okinawa in the East China Sea are home to the people with the longest disability-free life expectancy in the world. Okinawan women are three times more likely to reach the age of 100 than North American women. In the Okinawa Islands, the concept of retirement simply does not exist...The Okinawa people have 'ikigai', 'the reason you wake up in the morning.' In other words, the thing that drives you and is fundamentally critical to your existence....By 2030, the most dominant form of work is forecasted to be independent contracting - self-employed individuals who are contracted for specific projects or services - for both blue-collar and white-collar jobs...For someone over 65, this could mean taking on a project that requires only one day of work a week, for example, or only working in the afternoons...Physically taxing jobs, such as manufacturing lines, that still require human involvement can be accompanied by collaborative robots to help older workers with tasks that are physically complex or require heavy lifting....Rethinking retirement is not about taking away people's opportunity to finally rest, but about empowering people with the choice to live life in a way that works for them. It can be a way that allows all of us to find - or hold onto - our ikigai."

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8.24.20 - Major Gold Buying Opportunity Ahead

Gold last traded at $1,929 an ounce. Silver at $26.45 an ounce.

NEWS SUMMARY: Precious metal prices steadied Monday on a weaker dollar as the risk of rising inflation continued to attract investors. U.S. stocks rose as gains in tech shares and developments on coronavirus treatments drove the bullish sentiment.

Gold Forecast - Major Buying Opportunity Arriving in September -FX Empire
"Our gold forecast supporting a spike-high during the first week of August was timely, as gold peaked August 7th at $2089.20...Long-term investors may want to consider buying a pullback that nears the 200-day MA. First, let me start by saying gold is launching a powerful bull market that should extend into 2030. Governments are trapped with negative interest rates and have no choice but to devalue their currencies. With bonds yielding nothing and the potential for wide-spread defaults - the wise investor is turning to precious metals. Later this decade, we believe gold will exceed $8500 and likely challenge $10,000. However, much higher prices are possible if gold enters a secular mania phase, as we suspect. In a nutshell, it is probably a good idea to buy any significant pullback in gold for the foreseeable future. We also like silver and platinum. Physical metals (coins) are preferred as shortages will probably worsen as the bull market progresses. Finding quality bullion could be difficult or even impossible down the road."

post office Wall Street's worst nightmare isn't Trump or Biden. It's no clear winner at all -CNN
"President Donald Trump has already declared the 2020 election the 'most rigged' in American history. His opponent, former Vice President Joe Biden, has warned that Trump might not leave the White House willingly...It's easy to imagine a scenario where no winner is known for days, weeks or longer following the November 3 election. A protracted dispute over the outcome would be a nightmare for investors, who famously loathe uncertainty. And what's more uncertain than a contested election that raises questions about the peaceful transfer of power in the world's largest economy? 'There is a creeping concern,' David Kotok, co-founder and chief investment officer of Cumberland Advisors, told CNN Business. 'If it appears too close to call, we're going to get a market correction as we get closer to the election.' The situation is being muddied further by the pandemic, which has led many states - including key battlegrounds - to embrace mail-in ballots to ensure Americans who don't want to be exposed to coronavirus have a way to have their votes counted. 'Could several state results that are highly reliant on mail-in ballots - and have razor-thin results - prompt Trump to claim fraud?' Greg Valliere, chief US policy strategist at AGF Investments, wrote in a note to clients last week. 'That is the great fear.' Valliere estimates there is 'at least' a 30% chance of a 'disputed' election that could eventually get settled by the Supreme Court....The best-case scenario for Wall Street would likely be a Trump reelection....Yet markets have been largely unfazed by the rise of Biden in the polls....Thomas McLoughlin, head of Americas fixed income at UBS Global Wealth Management, said investors could flock to safe havens such as gold and US government debt in the event of a disputed election. 'Investors should be prepared for volatility in the event of an inconclusive result. Markets abhor uncertainty,'"

America's New Debt Bomb -Buchholz/Project Syndicate
"The United States today not only looks ill, but dead broke. To offset the pandemic-induced 'Great Cessation,' the US Federal Reserve and Congress have marshaled staggering sums of stimulus spending out of fear that the economy would otherwise plunge to 1930s soup-kitchen levels. The 2020 federal budget deficit will be around 18% of GDP, and the US debt-to-GDP ratio will soon hurdle over the 100% mark. Such figures have not been seen since Harry Truman sent B-29s to Japan to end World War II....WWII was financed with a combination of roughly 40% taxes and 60% bond debt...These US bonds, most with a nominal value of $25 or less, were bought predominantly by American citizens out of a sense of patriotic duty....US household savings during WWII were up - and largely in bonds. But Treasury paper bore a paltry yield, a distant maturity, and the stern-looking image of a former president. How, then, was the monumental war debt resolved? Three factors stand out. First, the US economy grew fast. From the late 1940s to the late 1950s, annual US growth averaged around 3.75%....Second, inflation took off after the war as the government rolled back price controls. From March 1946 to March 1947, prices jumped 20%....Third, the US benefited from borrowing rates being locked in for a long time....So, what's the lesson for today? For starters, the US Treasury should give tomorrow's children a break by issuing 50- and 100-year bonds, locking in today's puny rates for a lifetime....A longer duration will not be enough to solve the debt problem; the US also desperately needs to reform its retirement programs....Unlike military campaigns, the war against COVID-19 will not end with a bombing raid, a treaty, or celebrations in Times Square. Rather, the image we should bear in mind is of a ticking time bomb of debt. We can defuse it, but only if we can win the battle against policy inertia and stupidity. This war won't end with a bang, but it very well could end in a bankruptcy."

Do The Dems Want To Win? -Meijer/Zero Hedge
"No matter how much I read and watch, I can't shake the idea that the Democrats don't really, honestly, want to win the 2020 presidential election. Obviously, there are many in the party who do, and voters too, but not the ones pushing the levers and pulling the strings. Those, whoever they may be, that are picking candidates, setting policy, maintaining media contacts, doctoring spins. Because is there anyone among you who has ever seen a worse candidate than Joe Biden?....What you got is a really old man who couldn't get a toddler excited about ice cream, and a token black woman who nobody even in her own party likes....As for the political program, the agenda, there is really only one item on it: Donald Trump. And no matter how many millions of times it may be repeated in speeches and news articles, NOT being something is in the end NOT a positive message. You're supposed to win on your own merit, not someone else's perceived lack of merit. Newsflash: 'MOST BIDEN SUPPORTERS SAY THEIR VOTE IS AGAINST TRUMP RATHER THAN FOR BIDEN - WSJ/NBC News poll'....Why would a bunch of power-hungry folk (as all politicians and their sponsors are) want to screw up their own chance at obtaining power? Well, the lack of good candidates may well be a factor, but there's something much bigger: the US economy, like most if not all western economies, is wobbling precariously on a precipice, and about to fall off....The parties in charge in various countries, including the GOP in America, will be the ones blamed for most of the ensuing problems. If you're a Democrat behind-the-curtain wizard, wouldn't you at least consider saying: I think I'll pass for this round, and let Trump take the heat?"

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8.21.20 - Facebook Funneling Covid Misinformation

Gold last traded at $1,938 an ounce. Silver at $26.75 an ounce.

NEWS SUMMARY: Precious metal prices steadied Friday amid mild profit-taking and a firmer dollar. U.S. stocks traded mixed on upbeat economic data, but were capped by concerns over a new coronavirus stimulus bill.

Gold to Gain on Massive Currency Debasement -SkyBridge/Bloomberg
"Gold will extend its record-setting rally on 'massive currency debasement' and expectations for further stimulus, according to SkyBridge Capital, which recently added exposure to the metal after exiting in 2011. 'When you think of currency debasement the question is, what is the dollar going to weaken against, and when you look around the globe, it's hard to be excited about alternative currencies,' said Troy Gayeski, co-chief investment officer and senior portfolio manager. 'So, gold is obviously a natural alternative currency.' The precious metal surged to a record well above $2,000 an ounce earlier this month - although prices have stumbled since then - as central banks including the Federal Reserve unleashed vast stimulus to support economies hurt by the coronavirus pandemic. That's spurred bets that paper currencies will lose their value as money supply jumps. Goldman Sachs Group Inc. calls gold the currency of last resort and has forecast more gains....Ultimately, the driver for gold is 'you have massive currency debasement, particularly in the U.S.,' Gayeski said."

bidenvstrump The Joe Biden We Know -Editors/Wall Street Journal
"It took three tries and more than 30 years, but Joe Biden finally accepted the Democratic Party nomination for President Thursday evening. The moment was a personal triumph, and a credit to the former Vice President's doggedness and the alliances he has formed over decades. Yet despite all of his many years in public life, it still isn't clear what kind of President Mr. Biden would make...He is by all accounts a nice guy. He cares about people, powerful or not. He can forge alliances across the aisle. He does not kick down at adversaries, at least most of the time. 'Character is on the ballot,' as he put it Thursday night. In other words, he's running as Not Donald J. Trump. In the best case, Mr. Biden is asking Americans to believe that he would take these personal qualities to the White House and mediate policy disputes, calm the culture wars, and work with both parties to break America's partisan fever...Mr. Biden would certainly have the media and the institutions of American culture on his side, so the daily pitched battles of the last four years would be muted, at least for a time. Yet there's cause to doubt this happily-ever-after-Trump scenario - and the reasons include the man and the times. Regarding the man, Mr. Biden has never been a politician of strong political convictions....Can you think of a single policy, or even a phrase, that identifies what he has stood for in this campaign?....How probable would it be that Mr. Biden would be able to control, or want to control, the progressive ambitions of House and Senate Democrats and the institutional left? There is reason for pessimism from the evidence of his long career....As for foreign policy, he supported the invasion of Iraq in 2002 while chairing the Senate Foreign Relations Committee. Then he flipped when most Democrats did and as the fighting became difficult. Then he opposed the 2007 Iraq surge, saying it would fail. Then in 2011 he supported Barack Obama's withdrawal from Iraq that set the stage for the rise of Islamic State. He opposed the raid on Osama bin Laden. Misjudgments on hard questions are inevitable, and every President makes them. But one test of political character is the willingness to stand up to pressure and make hard choices even when they're politically unpopular. Mr. Biden has no record of doing so."

Facebook funneling readers towards Covid misinformation -The Guardian
"Websites spreading misinformation about health attracted nearly half a billion views on Facebook in April alone, as the coronavirus pandemic escalated worldwide, a report has found. Facebook had promised to crack down on conspiracy theories and inaccurate news early in the pandemic. But as its executives promised accountability, its algorithm appears to have fueled traffic to a network of sites sharing dangerous false news, campaign group Avaaz has found. False medical information can be deadly; researchers led by Bangladesh's International Centre for Diarrhoeal Disease Research, writing in The American Journal of Tropical Medicine and Hygiene....A single article, which falsely claimed that the American Medical Association was encouraging doctors and hospitals to over-estimate deaths from Covid-19, was seen 160m times. This vast collective reach suggested that Facebook's own internal systems are not capable of protecting users from misinformation about health, even at a critical time when the company has promised to keep users 'safe and informed'....'The majority of this dangerous content is still on Facebook with no warning or context whatsoever "¦ The time for [Facebook CEO, Mark] Zuckerberg to act is now. He must clean up his platform and help stop this harmful infodemic.'....Some of the false claims were directly harmful: one, suggesting that pure alcohol could kill the virus, has been linked to 800 deaths, as well as 60 people going blind after drinking methanol as a cure....A Facebook spokesperson said: 'We share Avaaz's goal of limiting misinformation, but their findings don't reflect the steps we've taken to keep it from spreading on our services.'"

Joe Biden's 564 pages of empty promises -O'Rourke/American Consequences
"I just read Joe Biden's presidential campaign platform so you don't have to. If you're thinking, 'Thanks anyway, but I'll read it for myself,' think again"¦Joe has 43 exhaustively detailed platform planks. My print-out totaled 564 pages, and that's not counting the pleas for campaign donations and campaign volunteers tacked onto the end of each document or the full text of 'Joe's Leadership During the COVID-19 Pandemic' that sends you down a rabbit hole of links to everything Joe has ever said about the coronavirus....But although Joe has a plan for everything and can't shut up when explaining his plans, he doesn't make it easy to find out exactly what these plans are. (And perhaps that's a wise move for someone trying to attract 'Anybody-But-Trump' moderate voters.)....His 'It's the End of the World - Poor and Minorities Hardest Hit' attitude persists through all 564 pages. So does the pretentious and silly verbiage - 'disproportionately impact,' 'persistent stressors,' 'systemic shocks,' 'environmental justice,' etc. Every one of the 43 platform planks seems to have been written by perfervid freshmen political-science majors in a dorm room bull session after taking methamphetamine....The platform planks are numbingly repetitious, full of grammatical errors, and occasionally just stupid....However, the real problem with Joe's campaign platform is quantitative not qualitative. All presidential candidates make a lot of promises, but there is a point where 'a lot' turns into a multitude, a profusion, a passel, a slew, oodles, scads, heaps, piles, and - frankly - a shitload. And then the promises, by dint of sheer number, become lies....There's nothing senile about Joe"¦ There's nothing wrong with his brain"¦ His thinking is terrifyingly clear"¦ Joe is an all too actively minded idiot."

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8.20.20 - Stock Market's Comeuppance is Coming

Gold last traded at $1,949 an ounce. Silver at $27.36 an ounce.

NEWS SUMMARY: Precious metal prices rose Thursday on bargain-hunting and a weaker dollar. U.S. stocks traded mostly lower on disappointing unemployment data and a downbeat economic outlook from the Federal Reserve.

A slow price rebound for gold is actually more bullish in the long run -Commerzbank/Kitco
"Gold is taking its time getting back to the highs from two weeks ago with $2,000 an ounce level acting as a strong resistance point, according to Commerzbank, which sees this trend as a very positive one for prices in the long term. 'Investors appear to be taking profits following the steep $80 price rise since the start of the week. Gold is not able to regain its record high from nearly two weeks ago quite so quickly, in other words. The fact that it is taking somewhat longer can only be healthy in terms of its future price performance,' writes Commerzbank analyst Carsten Fritsch. Meanwhile, gold continues to maintain its positive correlation with equities and is seeing additional support coming from weaker U.S. dollar. 'The S&P 500 needed only five months to rebound after its corona-induced slump in March, and yesterday posted a new record high "¦ The reason for this remarkable development - despite the most serious economic collapse in decades - is the same as for the upswing in the gold price in the last few weeks and months, namely the unprecedented expansion of central bank liquidity coupled with a lack of alternative investments,' adds Fritsch. All eyes are now on the Fed minutes from July, which will be published Wednesday afternoon. 'If the minutes reveal that yield curve control or the toleration of inflation above the target rate were discussed at the meeting three weeks ago, this would lend further buoyancy to gold,' notes Fritsch. 'This is because real interest rates would then slide even deeper into negative territory in the event of rising inflation. U.S. real interest rates with maturities of up to ten years are already negative.'"

chart The stock market's comeuppance is coming, as bullishness gets extreme -Hulbert/Marketwatch
"The U.S. stock market's five-month rally is coming to an end. Of course I don't know when....One big reason is that short-term market timers have become extremely bullish, which is not a good sign from a contrarian perspective. This is illustrated in the chart below, which plots the average recommended equity exposure among nearly 100 such timers that my firm monitors on a daily basis. This average currently stands at 65.9% - higher than 95% of all daily readings since 2000, when my firm began calculating this index. The chart also highlights those occasions over the last couple of years in which the HSNSI has risen to be within the top 10% of all past readings - thereby meeting the criterion for excessive bullishness as set by some contrarians. You'll notice that the market has proceeded to struggle on those prior occasions when this criterion was met....The lesson I draw from the data is that we should keep our enthusiasm in check. The stock market was surprisingly strong over the last five months, but - as the famed British economist John Maynard Keynes liked to remind investors - trees don't grow to the sky. Another reason to expect at least some sort of pullback is that there is almost always a market decline over the three months prior to presidential elections....The bottom line? Don't be surprised if the stock market suffers a nasty decline in coming weeks."

COVID 19 - A Hobgoblin -Von Greyerz/Gold Switzerland
"Is Covid the most perfect distraction that could have hit the world? The timing couldn't have been more perfect for the European and American economies. We know that there were major problems in the financial system back in August-September 2019 when both the ECB and the Fed declared that they would do what it takes. And since then we have seen massive injections of liquidity in the form of QE and Repos....Throughout history, initiating a crisis has always been a popular remedy that leaders have applied to divert attention from the real problem whether it be political or financial....The coming likely implosion of the financial system and depression will for decades be blamed on a pandemic which was only a catalyst and never the cause of the fall of the global economy. The real cause is a rotten financial system and an unmanageable debt burden. If we look at the effects of CV on various countries the differences are astounding. Sweden which has had virtually no lockdown saw an 8.6% fall in GDP in Q2. Much of the fall was due to lower exports as other countries bought less Swedish products. Switzerland which only has had a very limited lockdown had a 6.4% GDP fall in Q2. If we then look at the two countries which have totally mismanaged the situation - USA and UK, the outcome is disastrous. US GDP fell 32.9% in Q2 and the UK GDP was down 20.4%....Sadly the US and the UK have both had high numbers of CV cases and deaths. And in spite of major lockdowns, these two countries have seen a catastrophic decline in their economies, a fall which will take many years to recover from....Gold moved from a price of $1,450 in March to a high of $2075 on the Aug 6, a 43% move. For the first time in a long time the media started to talk about gold and also many people who normally never look at the gold price. This is often a sign of a short term top and that was clearly the case. From the high on Friday the 7th of Aug, gold lost $200 in three days. It has since recovered and is at $1,985, well above the 2011 top. This kind of fall is exactly what a short term overbought market needs. It gets rid of the weak hands and speculators. It is possible that the correction will be a bit deeper and last a bit longer, especially if stocks fall....Just think about gold in grams or ounces as the best insurance and wealth preservation asset that you can acquire today. It is a bargain at current levels and will protect investors from the destruction of currencies and the financial system."

Joe Biden United the Democrats - It's Not Likely to Last -Wall Street Journal
"Former Vice President Joe Biden has united disparate factions of the Democratic Party behind a message of defeating President Trump and rebuilding from the coronavirus pandemic. The detente might not last past the Nov. 3 election, no matter who wins. Mr. Biden won the nomination after resisting calls from more liberal candidates to create a Medicare-for-all health-care system, extend free public university tuition to everyone and overhaul the economy to eventually eliminate fossil fuels. Polls showed Mr. Biden benefiting from a primary electorate that cared most about defeating the president. But progressives have seen a resurgence since the onset of the coronavirus pandemic in March, ousting establishment Democrats in congressional primaries in Illinois, New York and Missouri. And they plan to heap pressure on Mr. Biden to implement liberal policies if he wins the presidency....If the former vice president succeeds in his bid for the White House, he will preside over the fight on how the party governs. If he loses, the party is likely to go through an extensive soul-searching process that will test the liberal-moderate divide. Democrats settled on a politician who has spent his nearly five decades in public life focused less on ideology than on developing personal relationships within institutions - the Senate and the vice presidency - to make deals and push for steady progress on the issues he cares about....The Democratic convention highlighted Mr. Biden's appeal to a variety of voters and featured multiple Republicans who had announced they were crossing party lines in order to support him....Ms. Harris has also spent her own career straddling the line between liberals and moderates, leaving some on the left to wonder whether she would adequately represent their views."

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8.19.20 - A Blockchain-Based Voting System?

Gold last traded at $1,943 an ounce. Silver at $26.91 an ounce.

NEWS SUMMARY: Precious metal prices stepped back Wednesday on profit-taking and firmer dollar. U.S. stocks rose slightly, with the S&P 500 notching a fresh all-time high, as strong quarterly results from Target lifted the broader retail sector.

Clueless Gold Writers Keep At It -Mish/The Street
"Put Wall Street Journal writer James Mackintosh firmly in the clueless camp. Mackintosh says 'Gold Will Need More Bad News to Keep Prospering'. 'If economic recovery continues, expect gold to suffer: There will be less need for insurance, fewer worries about the dollar's reserve status and lower prospects of more Fed action. Of course, if the Fed lets inflation rip gold might ultimately rise a lot more - but for now, at least, investors see little chance of this.'....Mackintosh does get some things right. He does not expect the dollar is about to lose its status as the world's anchor currency, and neither do I for reasons explained many times. It is lack of faith in central banks propelling the dollar. We had three major recoveries in 2000, in 2009 and in 2020 with gold rising in each. It's the monetary stimulus stupid. We can have a Fed-induced orgy of a recovery (we already have on in the stock market, just not the real economy), and it will fuel gold, not collapse it. Hello. 'There is No Magic Money Multiplier' but the Fed believes there is. As long as central banks and governments keep debasing money, there will be little faith in central banks but lots of faith in gold."

road Traders Brace for Haywire Markets Around Presidential Election -Wall Street Journal
"The presidential election is three months away, but some traders are preparing for the possibility that prolonged political uncertainty will stoke stock-market mayhem. The investors are going beyond the normal hedging ahead of a potential change in power in Washington. Instead they are betting on volatility and a possible market tumble later in the year. Among the concerns expressed by some: speculation that President Trump could try to delay the election or disrupt mail-in voting, as well as the chance that a result remains unclear for weeks after polls close. The election worries amplify existing concerns about the weak economy, a possible second wave of coronavirus infections in the fall and the highflying market. The bearish bet is that turmoil around the election hits the already fragile economy as the cooler months bring on more infections, all hitting the stock market that is priced for a recovery....The main driver of the market right now is the economy and uncertainty of a new stimulus package in Washington, which could hurt the slow recovery recently seen in retail sales and jobs....Bridgewater Associates, the giant hedge fund with $140 billion in assets, told clients last month it believes there is a risk there will be no clear election winner. 'The real uncertainty that could confront investors is if there is material concern over the legitimacy of the process to decide a winner,' Bridgewater told clients....To profit from a rocky presidential election, RBC Capital Markets recently recommended investors buy bullish options that expire in January on one of the biggest exchange-traded funds tracking gold....Meanwhile, gold prices have surged to records recently, driven higher by investors nervous about the world economy."

The USPS Filed A Patent For A Blockchain-Based Secure-Voting System -Zero Hedge
"It looks like the United States Post Office is getting in the business of voting. The USPS filed for a patent on February 7, 2020 for a 'Secure Voting System' that uses a blockchain access layer. Obviously, this could be one of the strongest signals of a welcome adaptation to blockchain by the U.S. government since blockchain was thrust on the map by Bitcoin. 'A voting system can use the security of blockchain and the mail to provide a reliable voting system,' the patent application says. 'A registered voter receives a computer readable code in the mail and confirms identity and confirms correct ballot information in an election. The system separates voter identification and votes to ensure vote anonymity, and stores votes on a distributed ledger in a blockchain.' The 'United States Postal Service' is listed as the applicant on the application. 'Voters generally wish to be able to vote for elected officials or on other issues in a manner that is convenient and secure,' the application says. 'Further, those holding elections wish to be able to ensure that election results have not been tampered with and that the results actually correspond to the votes that were cast. In some embodiments, a blockchain allows the tracking of the various types of necessary data in a way that is secure and allows others to easily confirm that data has not been altered.' Equally as interesting as the patent itself is the fact that the application was filed before the coronavirus had wreaked total havoc on the country and long before the idea of mail in voting was being tossed around by pundits and the mainstream media on the daily."

Pandemic has driven Americans to depression and drinking, CDC says -Yahoo News
"The coronavirus pandemic has led to a marked deterioration in Americans' mental health, according to a new Centers for Disease Control and Prevention study. That study, which surveyed 5,412 Americans, found that '40.9% of respondents reported at least one adverse mental or behavioral health condition.' According to the new study, 31 percent of respondents were suffering from symptoms of anxiety or depression; 26 percent experienced symptoms of traumatic disorder; 13 percent were using drugs or alcohol more heavily, or for the first time, to cope with the pandemic; and 11 percent had seriously contemplated suicide. 'Younger adults, racial/ethnic minorities, essential workers, and unpaid adult caregivers reported having experienced disproportionately worse' mental health outcomes than other groups, the study concluded....Significantly, more than 90 percent said they were not being treated for anxiety, depression or posttraumatic stress disorder before the pandemic struck....Former first lady Michelle Obama admitted that the pandemic, combined with the grotesque images of police brutality...were causing her anguish. 'I am dealing with some form of low-grade depression,' Obama said on her new podcast. She later said she was 'doing just fine,' but the admission seemed to give many Americans license to discuss their own experiences throughout the last six months. With many schools not opening to in-person instruction, the influenza season approaching and the economic recovery in an apparent stall, those experiences could remain challenging well into 2021....Alcohol has become an all-too-reliable crutch for a jittery, lonely population. Just how the nation will emerge from that pit remains unclear."

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8.18.20 - Berkshire Buys Gold, Dumps Goldman

Gold last traded at $2,006 an ounce. Silver at $28.10 an ounce.

NEWS SUMMARY: Precious metal prices rose further Tuesday on bargain-hunting and ongoing dollar weakness. U.S. stocks traded lower as new pandemic stimulus hopes for an agreement dimmed amid growing political tensions.

Gold Is Flying High, but Getting Harder to Mine -Wall Street Journal
"Gold miners are riding high as the metal trades at record prices, but digging it out of the ground is getting harder. Gold is among the rarest metals in the earth's crust and much of the easier-to-get ore has already been mined. What is left is harder to find and more expensive to extract, miners say. While that isn't an immediate worry, with gold prices hitting $2,000 an ounce for the first time this month, miners face the longer-term prospect of higher costs and drilling in less hospitable places....Gold prices are up around 28% this year. Miners have used the rally to pay down debt and increase dividends, rather than start new projects, with executives wary of repeating their costly overexpansion during the last big run-up in prices. 'We are definitely past peak gold,' said Mark Bristow, chief executive of Barrick Gold Corp., the world's second-largest gold miner by market capitalization. He estimates that the new metal added to miners' reserves since 2000 replaces only half of the gold they mined in that period....The grade of gold being mined - the amount of metal for every ton of rock mined - is also getting worse. The average mine grade has fallen from over 10 grams a ton in the early 1970s to around 1.46 grams a ton last year, according to Metals Focus, a precious-metals consulting firm....All the gold ever mined can fit into a 69-foot cube, according to the World Gold Council."

gold Did Buffett Just Bet Against The US? Berkshire Buys Barrick Gold, Dumps Goldman -Zero Hedge
"Berkshire Hathaway's latest 13F just dropped and contained inside is a signal that none other than the Oracle Of Omaha appears to now be quietly betting against The United States. Why? Because for years - in fact for as long we can remember - Warren Buffet has denigrated gold: In a speech delivered at Harvard in 1998, Buffett said: '(Gold) gets dug out of the ground in Africa, or someplace. Then we melt it down, dig another hole, bury it again and pay people to stand around guarding it. It has no utility. Anyone watching from Mars would be scratching their head."....According to the latest 13F, Buffett's Berkshire Hathaway not only dumped all his airlines - as we learned previously, but has also liquidated huge amounts of its exposure to US banks (exiting Goldman Sachs entirely)...Berkshire took a new stake (20.9 million shares) in Barrick Gold, a holding that was valued at about $564 million at the end of that period...So, the famously anti-gold investor has abandoned banks - 'the backbone of America's credit-driven economy - in favor of a gold miner (which was the largest in the world until last year when Newmont bought Goldcorp). Is Buffett betting against America with a levered position on precious metals?....What is most ironic about all of this is that Warren's father, Howard Buffett, is among the great gold bugs of all time....Buffett's father stresses the relation between money and freedom and contends that without a redeemable currency, an individual's freedom and one's access to property is dependent on goodwill of politicians....Did it really take him until he was 90-years-old to realize that his dad was right after all?"

No Ordinary Recession -Akers/Economics21
"As a labor economist, I follow the data releases on the state of the economy pretty closely...There are 13 million fewer jobs in the domestic economy today than in February...The rate of unemployment has skyrocketed from 3.5 percent in February, a 50-year low, to over 10 percent, a level of joblessness that hasn't been seen since the early 1980s. The scale of job loss has been massive....An abrupt and unanticipated stoppage of vast swaths of economic activities, is wildly different in nature from previous economic downturns in the nation's history....At this point, our nation continues to be engaged in an unexpectedly lengthy battle with COVID...The longer that it takes, the more permanent the damage that will be done. For example, if businesses had been required to close for just a few weeks, many could have withstood the disruption, perhaps with help from federal or state programs, and could have brought their operation back online with the same or most of the same workers. If the pause on activity had been just a bit longer, those same businesses might have had to lay off workers but been able to reopen, perhaps with a new staff, in short order. But the longer they are required to tread water, the more of them will have to close their doors for good, taking with them the jobs they had contributed to the economy. The same dynamic is at play for individuals. Some might be able to withstand a few weeks of suppressed income, but as the length of time goes on, individuals and families will have to make accommodations, like selling their homes or relocating, leaving them farther behind financially than they would have been otherwise....The goal of policy interventions today should be to minimize the 'scarring' that will come from leaving the economy largely offline as we battle COVID, while simultaneously supporting efforts to develop a vaccine and a plan for rapid distribution."

People Aren't Reading or Watching Movies. They're Gaming. -New York Times
"Even before the pandemic and the lockdowns, digital games were fast emerging as one of the world's favorite pastimes. But when live entertainment came to a halt, the virtual kind just took off. Since April, every week has ended with U.S. box office receipts down at least 97 percent and gaming revenue up by more than 50 percent, compared with the same week the year before. Driven by widening bandwidths that make digital games fun to play on mobile phones, global gaming revenues have risen steeply from under $20 billion in 2010 and are on track to hit $160 billion this year - more than books, music or movies. But gaming is doing more than displacing other forms of entertainment. It is also providing digital three-dimensional environments in which people can interact freely, develop content and pass on knowledge in new ways....During the lockdowns, gaming platforms have been thriving as venues for all manner of events. Savvy teachers are holding online classes where their students are already spending their time: on game-focused sites like Twitch and Discord....The prospect of a virtual world built on gaming platforms may unsettle those who see digital games as a mind-deadening waste of time at best and full-immersion training in antisocial behavior at worst."

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8.17.20 - Sweden's Success Shows True Cost of Arrogance

Gold last traded at $1,991 an ounce. Silver at $27.61 an ounce.

NEWS SUMMARY: Precious metal prices rose sharply Monday on safe-haven buying and a weaker dollar. U.S. stocks traded mixed as investors struggled with overbought conditions and a political stalemate over a new stimulus package.

Billionaire Ray Dalio's Bridgewater fund poured almost half a billion dollars into gold in Q2 -Business Insider
"Billionaire investor Ray Dalio's hedge fund poured more than $400 million into gold in the second quarter of this year, as the price rallied towards record highs, luring in high-profile and amateur investors alike...Bridgewater raised its holdings in the SPDR Gold Trust from $600.6 million to $914.3 million, making it one of the largest investors in the fund, according to data from Bloomberg. The fund's holding in SPDR is now its second-most valuable. The company increased its holding in the iShares Gold Trust from $176 million to $268.4 million. This investment is now Bridgewater's sixth biggest stake, up from ninth the previous quarter....With the rally in the gold price, investors have piled into ETFs at break-neck speed this year. ETFs around the world now own more gold than the German central bank, the world's second biggest holder of bullion after the US....Gold broke the $2,000 mark for the first time ever at the start of the month. The price has gained more than 26% so far this year, making it one of the best-performing commodities and outpacing several peers, even the tech-heavy Nasdaq....While gold's decline this week initially caught traders off guard, the outlook for the market remains bright. Analysts told Business Insider that despite Tuesday's near-6% drop, several factors factors such as the weaker dollar and growing geopolitical uncertainty suggest gold has more room to rally."

bulls The New Fascism -Gilder/AIER
"Up here in Maskachusetts, in the Berkshire Hills, we have a new form of fascism that might well be called 'phasism' as our Governor Charlie Baker phases out our freedoms and our economic life. Banning music and theater and Tanglewood concerts and tennis tournaments and baseball games and track meets and schools and colleges, he has put his knee on the arterial flow of our tourist and services dependent economy and it can no longer breathe....I've written of my colleague John Schroeter's stirring ebook, already available on Amazon: Covid19: A Devil's Choice. With cogent authority, this book presents all the statistical arguments on the insignificance of COVID compared to earlier, more deadly epidemics that brought no lockdowns or mask edicts....Now John Tamny, the libertarian star of Forbes' Real Clear Markets, has unleashed a devastating tract, to be published as soon as possible, entitled When Politicians Panicked: The New Coronavirus, Expert Opinion, and a Tragic Lapse of Reason. Naming names and describing the endless carnival of outrageous overreach, Tamny vividly shows that Governor Baker is just one of many demented governors reveling in power like a Charlie Chaplin Fuhrer during this mass media madness. Tamny is not much interested in COVID-19 data, except to dismiss the virus drama as just another epidemic event like scores of others over the centuries. He derides the call to continue lockdowns until the arrival of vaccines.... COVID deaths, even according to the Imperial College of London, will be drastically fewer in 2020 than the some 1.4 million new tuberculosis deaths resulting from the lockdowns and COVID hospital distortions....What we have undergone is an egregious and perhaps criminal and certainly unconstitutional power grab by politicians....Tamny is giving us a heroic book just in time to lead this movement. We have been suffering not from a medical crisis but from a political and economic and institutional crisis. We have undergone a vast breakdown of moral, educational, intellectual and journalistic standards. Tamny tells this story better than anyone else. All should read his shocking tale."

Markets rise as economy struggles; 'It does not make sense' -The Hill
"The expression 'stock markets are not the economy' may have never been truer. The S&P 500, an index that tracks the country's largest publicly traded companies, has all but erased its pandemic losses and closed within a fraction of a percentage point of its all-time high Thursday. But far away from Wall Street, the economy on main streets in cities and towns across the country feel as if they are in tatters. Unemployment stands at 10.2 percent as thousands of businesses remain closed. Many of the jobs shed when businesses closed their doors for extended lockdowns have not come back, and the jobless rate remains at its highest level since the Great Depression. Gene Goldman, chief investment officer at Cetera, says that equity markets are enjoying a V-shaped recovery even as the real economy is experiencing a slower, U-shaped recovery. 'It does not make sense,' he said....A central reason for the spike is the Federal Reserve. The Fed dropped interest rates to near zero and opened a slew of new lending facilities to keep financial markets afloat. Its balance sheet exploded from roughly $4.3 trillion in mid-March to about $7 trillion today....'This market feels overdone, overvalued, stretched, speculative, pick your adjective,' said Mark Zandi, chief economist at Moody's Analytics. 'There will be a day of reckoning, but who knows when it will occur. The irony is that it might happen after the pandemic.'"

Sweden's success shows the true cost of our arrogant, failed establishment -Telegraph
"So now we know: Sweden got it largely right, and the British establishment catastrophically wrong. Anders Tegnell, Stockholm's epidemiologist-king, has pulled off a remarkable triple whammy: far fewer deaths per capita than Britain, a maintenance of basic freedoms and opportunities, including schooling, and, most strikingly, a recession less than half as severe as our own. Our arrogant quangocrats and state 'experts' should hang their heads in shame: their reaction to coronavirus was one of the greatest public policy blunders in modern history, more severe even than Iraq, Afghanistan, the financial crisis, Suez or the ERM fiasco. Millions will lose their jobs when furlough ends; tens of thousands of small businesses are failing; schooling is in chaos, with A-level grades all over the place; vast numbers are likely to die from untreated or undetected illnesses; and we have seen the first exodus of foreigners in years....Pandemics always come with large economic and social costs, for reasons of altruism as well as of self-interest...But if a drop in GDP is unavoidable, governments can influence its size and scale. Politicians can react in one of three ways to a pandemic. They can do nothing, and allow the disease to rip until herd immunity is reached. Quite rightly, no government has pursued this policy, out of fear of mass deaths and total social and economic collapse. The second approach involves imposing proportionate restrictions to facilitate social distancing, banning certain sorts of gatherings while encouraging and informing the public. The Swedes pursued a version of this centrist strategy...The third option is the full-on statist approach, which imposes a legally binding lockdown and shuts down society....Almost all economists thought that Sweden's economy would suffer hugely from its idiosyncratic strategy. They were wrong."

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8.14.20 - Economy Reknitting Itself, Leave it Alone

Gold last traded at $1,953 an ounce. Silver at $26.35 an ounce.

NEWS SUMMARY: Precious metal prices eased back Friday on profit-taking despite a weaker dollar. U.S. stocks traded mixed as as the S&P 500 again failed to reach its February record high.

Gold Markets Continue to Build Base for Next Leg -FX Empire
"Gold markets gapped lower during the trading session on Thursday but then turned around to fill that gap. Ultimately, the market looks likely to continue to go higher due to the fact that the $1900 level underneath holding as support. If that is going to be the case, then the hammer that formed during the Wednesday session will be perfect. After all, it did touch a large, round, psychologically significant number...The fact that we are holding up on Thursday also lends credence to the idea of this market looking good, so ultimately, I am not interested in selling. Yes, I recognize that there was a complete thrashing on this market during the Tuesday session, but that was essentially something that was overdue. Now that it looks like we are stabilizing, people will start to dip their toe into the water and go long. For myself, I only added to a longer-term core position that am willing to hold for quite some time. All things being equal, I think that the market goes looking towards the highs again. All things being equal, this is a market that is probably moving more of the Federal Reserve dumping dollars into the system more than anything else, something that is not going to end anytime soon."

economy The economy is reknitting itself, so leave it alone -Yandle/Washington Examiner
"Last Friday, the Bureau of Labor Statistics provided a bit of good news for the beleaguered coronavirus economy: Some 1.8 million jobs were added to the economy in July, and the unemployment rate ticked down to 10.2%...With 140 million working, and with 16.3 million looking, the economy seems to be reknitting itself...A somewhat unregulated market economy, if left alone, is capable of finding its way during pretty bleak times. I should emphasize the 'unregulated' part of that statement. During these challenging coronavirus times, a host of people seem ready to grab the economy's elusive steering wheel and have their time as driver. They yearn to exercise political power. Leaving it alone is the difficult challenge to be met by headline-seeking politicians and wannabes....Countless ordinary people are figuring out how to make a living, and the result of this effort is what I meant earlier when I referred to the economy knitting back. These are the people who previously ran a restaurant and now operate a food truck or a take-out business. Some are people who worked with diverse service providers that now contract with businesses to provide cleaning and decontamination of premises. Others who previously worked in offices and managed construction projects are working from home...Rather than reknitting, some are knitting a replacement economy from new balls of yarn, while finding ways to get costs down and profits up. It's happening all around us...When faced with upheaval, making some changes isn't always a choice. The old law 'necessity is the mother of invention' applies in spades. Innovation is often driven by hard times....The coronavirus is a cruel task master. This is time to give the economy some room to roam, to avoid imposing more restrictions on folks who are trying to rebuild their businesses, and to avoid hitting folks with new taxes, whether they are called tariffs or otherwise."

The Federal Reserve Helps America's Rich Get Richer -Bonner/Rogue Economics
"The feds corrupted the whole economy - and society itself - with their fake money, fake interest rates"¦ and trillions of dollars given to Wall Street. The fake interest rates increased debt and cut growth rates in half. And they twisted the economy away from Main Street (where most people earn their living) and toward Wall Street (where the top 10% of the population owns nearly 90% of the assets.) This 'financialization' made the rich richer, but it left most people (relatively) poorer. People don't understand how it works. And they don't want to understand. But they feel cheated. Many want revenge. The solution is very simple: Just say 'no' to the fakery and the larceny. No more stimulus. No more deficits. No more Federal Reserve support for Wall Street. No more counterfeiting....There are only two kinds of money - real or fake...Real money is created by providing real goods and services to others. Traditionally, it is represented by gold or silver tokens"¦ or pieces of paper backed by gold or silver. Take out the gold or silver, and you just have pieces of paper - which can be printed in any quantity the authorities choose"¦ and used for whatever claptrap purpose they want....What a delight it would be for The Donald to call out one of the biggest hinds in the whole jackass herd - former Fed chief, Ben Bernanke...Bernanke 'printed' $3.6 trillion over a five-year period - an unprecedented increase in America's monetary base. Today's Jerome Powell-led Federal Reserve, however, printed nearly that much in just 90 days. And it's just getting started"¦ Last week, there was a $4 trillion deficit to fund. Next week, the deficit may be $5 trillion or $6 trillion. Neither conservatives nor liberals offer any objection. They, too, have the courage to spend other people's money. Don't ask; don't tell. Just print!"

REI Built an Elaborate HQ. Because of Covid-19, the Outdoor Retailer Wants to Sell It- Wall Street Journal
"Recreational Equipment Inc. is looking to sell its custom-made new headquarters and allow employees to work from home or other offices, the latest sign that the pandemic is driving companies to ditch central offices to raise cash. The retailer, known as REI, was poised to open the new Seattle-area headquarters this summer after creating a unique building that reflected the company's outdoorsy image and could serve as a way to recruit new employees. The property features outdoor staircases and bridges, a courtyard of native plants, and skylights to let in sunshine and air. But the cooperative said on Wednesday it was trying to find a buyer for the property before ever moving in. Instead of a single headquarters, REI will open a number of smaller offices and allow employees to work remotely, the company said. Employees have been working from home since March. REI's about-face on a building that was two years in the making offers the latest example of how the coronavirus pandemic is changing daily work habits and upending the office sector. Many companies say they have been surprised by how productive remote work has been, and they plan to allow their employees to work from home on some days even after the pandemic is over....REI is the latest in a growing list of companies embracing remote work. Twitter Chief Executive Jack Dorsey, for example, said in May that the vast majority of the company's employees would be allowed to work remotely indefinitely. Facebook CEO Mark Zuckerberg has said that he expects half the company's employees to work remotely within a decade. While few observers expect companies to ditch the office altogether, many expect that firms will use less space in the future and in some cases switch from a single, big headquarters to multiple smaller locations."

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8.13.20 - Kamala Won't Satisfy Progressives -WSJ

Gold last traded at $1,961 an ounce. Silver at $27.24 an ounce.

NEWS SUMMARY: Precious metal prices rebounded sharply Thursday on bargain-hunting and a weaker dollar. U.S. stocks traded mixed as investors digested better-than-expected unemployment data.

Gold Has Always Been The Best Money -Lewis/Forbes
"I have found that, among the mass of simple, hardworking people who don't know much about monetary history, there has always been a basic understanding that money based on gold and silver is a good idea....The history of money since that time is basically one long tale of gold and silver, leading up to the Classical Gold Standard of the pre-1914 era, and then the Bretton Woods gold standard beginning in 1944, and ending in 1971. This is true in the West, but it is also true in the East. Gold and silver coinage was the norm in India from the sixth century BC. Gold was the primary high-value money of the Han Dynasty (202 BC-220 AD) in China....The first government paper currency was issued by the Colony of Massachusetts in 1690; the Continental Dollar died in hyperinflation in 1781. This experience drove the Founders to include a mandate to use gold and silver coinage, in Article I Section 10 of the Constitution of 1789. The U.S dollar maintained a nearly-unchanged value of 23.22 grains of gold ($20.67/oz.) from 1792 to 1933, with a major lapse during the Civil War. After a devaluation in 1933, the dollar was linked to gold at $35/oz. until 1971.Through all this time, a simple pattern emerged: those countries that stuck to gold and silver, and unchanging coinage, tended to be successful. Stable Money works....We say of things that are stable, solid and reliable, that they are 'like a rock.' This is a good thing. This is what we want money to be, and gold is the best approximation of this ideal that we have - and approximation that, while never perfect, has always been Good Enough."

storm Kamala Harris Won't Satisfy Progressives -Wall Street Journal
"By choosing Sen. Kamala Harris as his running mate, Joe Biden is sending a message to the progressive left base of the Democratic Party: Drop dead. The choice indicates that Mr. Biden's centrist establishment handlers view Hillary Clinton's defeat in 2016 as historically anomalous rather than evidence of a flawed strategy....'Joe Biden's top priority in selecting a running mate will be to choose somebody who can help unite and energize the sprawling, restless Democratic coalition,' Errol Louis said last week on CNN. 'At a time when demands for racial justice and inclusion are surging, Harris would be a camera-ready voice from the black base of the party.'....It's hard to believe that younger black voters will look past Ms. Harris's record as San Francisco district attorney and California attorney general. 'That 'top cop' thing has just stuck - she built such a strong brand on it as an AG, as the DA - and it's hard for people to erase that in their memories,' Chivona Newsome, a co-founder of Black Lives Matter, told the New York Times. Kevin Cooper sits on California's death row in part because Ms. Harris refused to allow him to obtain advanced DNA testing to demonstrate his innocence....Mr. Biden probably won't enjoy much of a boost from a running mate primarily chosen to appeal to the older black voters who would have turned out for him anyway. He has certainly alienated progressives. The hashtag #KamalaIsACop will trend again."

How Will the Presidential Election Affect the Stock Market? -McMillan/Commonwealth
"Politics has less of an effect on the economy and, therefore, the markets than we think....Decade after decade, markets have moved ahead as the economy grew, regardless of the party in power. When we do see a political influence, it is not what might be expected. The average Republican administration over that time period saw gains of 3.5 percent per year, while the Democrats saw gains of almost twice as much, at 6.7 percent per year....Put in that context, fears about the election look to be overstated. Trump is a known quantity. So, if he is reelected, the effect should be minor....Biden plans to raise taxes significantly if elected, which would hit corporate profit margins. If margins decline, so do earnings - and so does the stock market. Higher taxes on the rich would also presumably hit their spending, which would be a drag on growth. These are real concerns. They are not, however, any different from the concerns that normally accompany a Democratic administration....The next president will likely have to deal with a divided government, limiting the administration's ability to pass any significant changes. Even if the Democrats were to take the Senate, a Biden administration would not have a filibuster-proof majority and likely could not rely on all the Democrats to vote for anything radical. The American political system is designed to be hard to change. Nothing in this election will change that, no matter who wins....The real risks will come from reactions to the headlines, rather than to the underlying data."

Amid coronavirus outbreak, drive-in theaters unexpectedly find their moment -LA Times
"Brenna Coogle frequented the Paramount Drive-In as a child growing up in Lakewood but hadn't been there in about 30 years. On Tuesday night, however, she decided to visit it for a showing of Pixar Animation Studios' 'Onward' with her 9-year-old son and friends....Drive-in theaters have long been viewed as an anachronistic diversion - perhaps worthy of an occasional visit, if that. Now, though, several among the country's 305 drive-in theaters are experiencing a surge in interest as traditional movie theaters, theme parks and other entertainment options are forced to close because of governmental advisories designed to increase social distancing during the coronavirus outbreak. In interviews with The Times, owners of drive-ins in California, Kansas, Oklahoma and Missouri said that they remain open, with several reporting increases in business in recent days. Ticket sales Tuesday at the two-screen Paramount Drive-In were 'at least double' what they typically would be, said Beau Bianchi, whose family has owned the facility in Paramount since 1946. In all, the drive-in - which offered a double feature on both of its screens - welcomed 136 cars and sold 320 tickets. 'It has been a welcome relief for families and adults looking for a little getaway from the house,' Bianchi said. 'We've been trying to let people know that we have a safe environment and [offer] a little escape.'"

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8.12.20 - What Did the 'Stimulus Plan' Stimulate?

Gold last traded at $1,938 an ounce. Silver at $25.62 an ounce.

NEWS SUMMARY: Precious metal prices rebounded Wednesday on bargain-hunting and continued safe-haven buying, despite a firmer dollar. U.S. stocks rose as shares of the major tech companies recovered some of their steep losses from the previous session.

What Did the 'Stimulus Plan' Stimulate? -Reynolds/AIER
"Faced with an escalating pandemic in March, the President and most governors did not want to 'stimulate' the private economy. They wanted to shut it down - with stay-at-home orders and mandated business closings...People were not suddenly prohibited from buying many goods and services because they had no income. They had no income because they were prohibited from producing desired goods and services by working in certain 'nonessential' jobs or opening 'nonessential' businesses....Federal officials declared that what was needed was to enact a $3 trillion 'stimulus plan.' By early August, evidently disappointed with the results of their first effort, House Democrats were proposing to rerun the experiment on the same $3 trillion scale while Republican senators suggested borrowing and spending a third as much. Both House and Senate plans include $300 billion for a second round of Economic Impact Payments, however, sending $1,200-2,400 checks to people as if it was free money from generous politicians. Recall that the first big stimulus plan of March 27, 2020 was advertised as a way to boost consumer spending. 'We want to make sure Americans get money in their pockets quickly,' said Treasury Secretary Mnuchin....Mailing $1,200 checks to 159 million people, adding $600 to weekly unemployment benefits and rationing forgivable 1% loans for five years did, of course, raise personal income....In addition to $1,200 in helicopter money dropped on 159 million adults, and subsidized PPP loans to some lucky noncorporate businesses, the 'stimulus' package included longer and larger unemployment benefits - an extra $600 per week....With the federal government's $600 weekly add-on, unemployment benefits were the equivalent of working for $31-36 an hour in Oregon, Washington, Minnesota, New Jersey and Massachusetts. Why work? In June, New Jersey and Massachusetts suffered the nation's highest unemployment rates of 16% and 17.4% respectively....So, what was stimulated by the stimulus? The answer is obvious. Federal nondefense spending rose at a 39.7% annual rate. Big government spending can and does grow big government. The only conceivable rationale for repeating the latest of many failed experiments with fiscal stimulus (borrowing from Peter to pay Paul) might be to 'stimulate demand.' But we just tried that. It didn't work. It never works."

gold and silver What's Next for Gold & Silver in 2020? -Heskin/Swiss America
"It is no secret precious metal prices have been on a steep incline in 2020, due to the dramatic rise in economic uncertainty and a growing distrust of paper currencies, government and the stability of the financial markets. By August, gold prices had risen 35% (rising above $2,000 an ounce) and silver prices were up 60% (approaching $30 an ounce). So what's next? Are we reaching peak gold and silver prices? Is it too late to diversity a portion of your assets into precious metals? Or is 2020 just the start of a new long-term bull market? 'As long as the money-printing continues, gold will continue to rise,' opines legendary businessman, economist and author Bill Bonner who accurately called the last precious metals bull market in 2000. 'Stocks are an indicator of giddy greed,' Bill continues. 'Gold is a measure of sober fear. One is hope. The other is reality....So, what do you think?...Is this the 'bottom' for the U.S. economy... and the peak in the yellow metal?....Or is this just the beginning... the first act in a show that will last for years more? Peak gold is probably still far ahead.' Mr. Bonner is not alone. Scores of respected, mainstream market analysts - such as Goldman Saks and Bank of America - are now calling for $2,300 to $3,000 an ounce gold within the next 2 years; as well as $40 to $75 an ounce silver. Longer-term projections range from a $5,000 to a 10,000 an ounce gold price in the next decade....Over the last forty years, those of us at Swiss America have been passionate about the wisdom of physical gold and silver ownership. We believe physical gold and silver should be viewed as necessary 'wealth insurance' to protect your other assets from the wild swings in the economy and markets we may face in the months and years ahead. No, it is never too late to get started shoring up your financial portfolio with physical gold and silver. Call us today at 800-289-2646 to rediscover gold and silver in 2020!"

Mayhem Continues, Protest Narrative Crumbles -Editors/Wall Street Journal
"The press has been playing defense for Portland anarchists for weeks, suggesting riots and arson against a federal courthouse were provoked by federal agents protecting it. When the Trump Administration lowered the profile of its agents in an agreement with the state government, the media's protest cheerleaders were eager to report that the real cause of the violence had gone away. 'Trump ordered federal forces to quell Portland protests. But the chaos ended as soon as they left,' said a July 31 Washington Post headline. So much for that. Over the weekend Portland police were forced to declare two riots. On Friday police said 'people defied orders to disperse and threw rocks, frozen or hard-boiled eggs and commercial-grade fireworks at officers,' the Associated Press reports. Rioters also 'filled pool noodles with nails and placed them in the road, causing extensive damage to a patrol vehicle.' On Saturday night, arsonists set a fire inside the Portland police union building and rioters outside landed two officers in the hospital. Rioting continued late Sunday, injuring more police. The narrative of peaceful protesters set upon by bloodthirsty law enforcement officers in Portland is becoming unsustainable even for progressives...'When you commit arson with an accelerant in an attempt to burn down a building that is occupied by people that you have intentionally trapped inside,' said Portland Mayor Ted Wheeler, 'you are not demonstrating. You are attempting to commit murder.'....Meanwhile in Chicago on Sunday night, hundreds of looters ransacked stores along the Magnificent Mile, one of America's premier commercial streets. The Chicago Tribune reports that some looters 'could be seen throwing merchandise into rental trucks and other large vehicles before driving away.' The city pulled up drawbridges to control entrance to the downtown, and 13 cops were injured. Homicides in the city are up 52% compared to last year, and Alderman Brian Hopkins told CBS local news on Friday that 'If people are afraid to come downtown, they fear for their life, they're not going to want to shop here.'....All of this raises the question of how long the mainstream press and Democratic politicians can publicly maintain the fiction that violence surrounding 'mostly peaceful' protests is a nuisance of little consequence and that the real villains are the police. The longer this willful distortion continues, the longer the economic immiseration of places like Chicago will persist even after the pandemic ends."

"I Wouldn't Take It" - Former FDA Commissioner Scott Gottlieb Trashes Russia's 'First-In-The-World' COVID Vaccine -Zero Hedge
"Former FDA Director Scott Gottlieb, who has been kicking himself for leaving the Trump Administration to spend more time 'with family' late last year - only to miss out on what could have been a career-making turn as the nation's corona-savior - and trying to compensate by appearing on 'Squawk Box' and myriad other cable-TV shows as a certified 'expert', has some doubts about Russia's new COVID vaccine. And that's hardly surprising. Since, to be fair, Gottlieb has expressed doubts for certain data dumps from Moderna and others which he has dubbed premature. Though it's also worth noting that he's on the board of Pfizer, a big-pharma giant that is working on its own COVID vaccine, having benefited from billions in promised and substantiated funding from the US government. During Tuesday's appearance on CNBC's 'Squawk Box', Gottlieb weighed in on the COVID issue du jour: the newly registered Russian vaccine, which President Putin has touted as a 'first in the world' accomplishment. Gottlieb has his doubts: 'I wouldn't take it, certainly not outside a clinical trial right now, it appears it has only been tested in several hundreds patients at most,' Gottlieb complained. He also warned that the 'adenoviral vector' used by the Russian scientists is similar to the strategy being pursued by CanSino. And Gottlieb alleged the data out of the CanSino trial has been 'suboptimal'. But it's not just the lack of clinical data that bothers Gottlieb: the adenoviral vector used by the Russian vaccine is also being used by CanSino, a Chinese pharma giant working on its own vaccine. Gottlieb says the data released from CanSino so far 'hasn't been great'...and since Russia hasn't released much in the way of any data, Gottlieb says it's fair to question the results touted by the Russian government....Russia declared the vaccine 'ready for use' and extraordinarily 'safe' despite 'international skepticism,' the Associated Press reported. Putin made the announcement during a 'government meeting', where he also revealed that one of his own daughters had participated in the experimental trials."

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8.11.20 - Why Is Everyone Buying Gold? -NYT

Gold last traded at $1,930 an ounce. Silver at $25.30 an ounce.

NEWS SUMMARY: Precious metal prices pulled back Tuesday as correctional profit-taking offered investors an excellent buying opportunity. U.S. stocks rose amid rumors of a new Russian Covid-19 vaccine as well as investor optimism that some major stocks would benefit from a reopening of the economy, such as cruise lines and airlines.

Why Is Everyone Buying Gold? -New York Times
"This year, gold is the best performing traditional asset in the world. Its price just topped $2,000 an ounce for the first time. From serious investors to newly minted day traders, everyone is talking up its virtues. A recent survey of 1,000 people found that one in six Americans bought gold or other precious metals in the last three months, and about one in four were seriously thinking about it. On Robinhood, the popular online trading platform, the number of users holding two of its largest gold funds has tripled since January. It seems we're all gold bugs now. It's tempting to attribute the vogue for gold to a desire for a safe haven during the pandemic - a kind of financial panic reflex that will release as the crisis abates. But the gold mania is also driven by a hunch that the easy money pouring out of central banks and government stimulus programs could trigger inflation, which makes it a more worrisome economic omen....Investors have driven up the price of gold more than 30 percent this year after a gain of nearly 20 percent last year. In recent weeks, that surge has been turbocharged by growing expectations that all the money governments are pumping into their economies will reignite inflation. In addition, with valuations of stocks well above their long-term average, gold appears relatively cheap. And with central banks printing money hand over fist, some see gold as a stable alternative to the dollar and other major currencies. (Gold is also pulling up the price of its less glamorous relative, silver, which is rising from an unusually depressed level because people see it as a cheaper play on the same trends.)....Unless a vaccine emerges quickly, central banks stop printing money frantically and real interest rates start rising again, it is difficult not to be a gold bug now."

recovery When will the economy be good again? -VOX
"We know the US economy is bad right now. Millions of people have lost their jobs, and millions more will. Estimates for how much unemployment is expected to spike and GDP will fall are staggering. Production and spending across much of the country have been brought to an abrupt halt. It's natural to want to see a light at the end of the tunnel, obviously in terms of the health crisis caused by coronavirus but also for the economy. And there will be one - eventually....'The shock from the virus is going to trigger a broader economy-wide recession,' said Jesse Edgerton, an economist at JPMorgan. 'That's a really harsh reality.' The question of when and how the economy gets better largely hinges on our ability to get the virus itself under control...At some point the economy will bounce back, at least partially. When it does, that new normal will be different. Many Americans may be worse off than they were before, some people may still be afraid to resume their lives as they once lived them, and many businesses may have permanently closed. 'There will likely be some permanent damage inflicted on the economy,' says Greg Daco, chief US economist at Oxford Economics. 'What this shock is doing is exacerbating preexisting inequality issues across the country. The individuals who have been hit the hardest are the individuals who were in the most precarious position to start with.' Economists say it could be anywhere from 2021 to 2031 before the economy returns to something like the pre-coronavirus 'normal.' But it may never be entirely the same....The coronavirus outbreak will need to be firmly under control before the economy can resume anything approaching normalcy, and we just don't know yet when the public health breakthrough will happen....The more small businesses that close because of the initial economic shock or a problem accessing federal benefits, or both, the more the markets they leave behind will be concentrated among a handful of dominant players."

Fed Commitment To Let Inflation Run Isn't A Promise; It's A Threat -Zero Hedge
"According to a recent CNBC report, the Federal Reserve is set to make a major commitment to 'ramping up inflation.' According to the report, the Fed will pivot to 'average inflation targeting.' With this strategy 'inflation above the central bank's usual 2% target would be tolerated and even desired.' Practically speaking, the Federal Reserve would not raise interest rates until both its employment and inflation targets are met, meaning the central bank would likely keep interest rates at zero for years....In a nutshell, the Fed simply wants to make sure it's absolutely clear that it isn't even thinking about thinking about raising interest rates...Of course, the Fed doesn't look at the real rate of inflation. It looks at the CPI or some core index within that number. Peter Schiff said they'll likely look at an index that will never get above 4% even if the actual inflation rate is 20 or 30%....The truth of the matter, the Federal Reserve is in a position where it has to make excuses for allowing inflation to run hot because it simply cannot raise interest rates. Even the hint of a rate hike would crash the stock market and likely take the economy down with it. You simply can't raise rates when the entire economy is built on a giant pile of debt. When gold pushed above $2,000 an ounce, a pundit on CNBC declared it wasn't a big deal and predicted the yellow metal will sell off as soon as real interest rates go positive. Schiff said the Fed is telling you that's never going to happen. 'Saying that they're going to commit to more inflation is a threat against the American public. It's a threat against the American economy. They're saying, 'We're going to wipe out the value of your savings. We're going to increase the cost of living.'...'The Fed is actually about to codify this absurdity by strengthening their commitment to reckless money printing and endless inflation. And you think gold is expensive at $2,000 an ounce? No! It's still cheap.'"

Postal Service emerges as flash point heading into election -Associated Press
"The success of the 2020 presidential election could hinge on a most unlikely government agency: the U.S. Postal Service. Current signs are not promising. The Postal Service already was facing questions over how it would handle the expected spike of mail-in ballots due to the coronavirus pandemic, but several operational changes imposed by its new leader have led to mail backlogs across the United States as rumors of additional cutbacks swirl, fueling worries about the November vote....The pandemic has forced states to expand voting by mail as a safe alternative to in-person polling places. Some states are opting to send ballots to voters or allowing people to use fear of the virus as a reason to cast an absentee ballot. That's led to predictions of an an unprecedented amount of mail voting in the presidential election....The agency's new leader, Postmaster General Louis DeJoy, a former supply-chain CEO...has pushed cost-cutting measures to eliminate overtime pay and hold mail until the next day if postal distribution centers are running late....DeJoy has said repeatedly that the Postal Service is in a financially untenable position and needs to rein in expenses. This past week, it reported $2.2 billion in losses during the three months that ended in June. Postal leaders want at least a $10 billion infusion from Congress as well as regulatory changes that would end a costly mandate that they fund in advance billions of dollars in retiree health benefits. 'Without dramatic change, there is no end in sight, and we face an impending liquidity crisis,' DeJoy told the Postal Service's governing board Friday. Memos from post office leadership, obtained by The Associated Press, detailed an elimination of overtime and a halting of late delivery trips that are sometimes needed to make sure deliveries arrive on time...Additional records obtained by AP outline upcoming reductions of hours at post offices, including closures during lunch and on Saturdays....'Although there will likely be an unprecedented increase in election mail volume due to the pandemic, the Postal Service has ample capacity to deliver all election mail securely and on-time in accordance with our delivery standards, and we will do so,' DeJoy said."

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8.10.20 - Stunned by Gold's Record Rise? More to Come

Gold last traded at $2,025 an ounce. Silver at $28.90 an ounce.

NEWS SUMMARY: Precious metal prices traded mixed Monday as the dollar extended rally. U.S. stocks traded mixed after President Trump signed several executive orders extending coronavirus relief.

Stunned by gold's record rise? There's more to come, analysts say -Reuters
"The speed at which gold has broken above $2,000 an ounce has left some in the market fearing a correction, but many analysts predict more gains as the coronavirus crisis spurs investors to buy into bullion's relative safety. The record-breaking rally, which lifted gold as high as $2,055 last Wednesday, has made the precious metal one of 2020's best performing mainstream assets. It has risen $500 this year, and $200 in the last two weeks alone. Taking out the totemic $2,000 barrier means investors must change their reference points, said Frederic Panizzutti at Swiss precious metals dealers MKS. 'The adjustment will be higher. We are definitely in a bull run,' he said. Investors see gold as an asset that should hold its value as the health crisis and money printing by central banks erode the value of others. Real returns on U.S. bonds - in normal times a much more popular perceived safe asset than gold - have tumbled to minus 1.07% from 0.15% at the start of the year, making bullion look like a better bet....The dollar, another safe-haven rival to gold and the currency in which it is priced, has slid to 2-year lows as the novel coronavirus infects more Americans....'Ultimately with gold you can't print any more of it, you can't artificially create it. It will hold its value,' said Michael Hewson at CMC Markets. Bank of America says prices could hit $3,000 within 18 months."

beach America Is a Coalition of the Worried -Noonan/Wall Street Journal
"It's August, high summer, and you're trying to ease in and relax with family, and friends. You've imagined it for months. You're at the beach with pails and shovels and towels and the short chairs, and you're trying to sit back and do nothing after this unrelenting year of stress and effort and rolling with every punch...You're looking at the waves with this fixed and pleasant look on your face because the kids or grandkids are always picking up cues and clues. But really you've got this thousand-yard stare, you're a million miles away, immersed in your concerns, your fears. About everything. People who haven't worried in years are worried, and it's not about regular things, it's about big and essential things. It's a whole other order of anxiety....We're in the middle (perhaps - nobody knows) of a world-wide pandemic, a historic occurrence that for everyone alive has been without precedent. We are in the middle (perhaps - nobody knows) of a severe economic contraction that looks likely to produce a long recession. We've experienced a national economic shutdown, again without precedent....Everyone wants a feeling of safety. But no one is certain where safety is. I'm not sure Washington and the national political class see this, but a great question of 2020: What will make us feel safer?....The media, whose job it is to hold it to account, are distrusted. A Knight Foundation-Gallup survey released this week showed 86% of Americans seeing 'a great deal' or 'fair amount' of political bias in news coverage. The Democrats can't agree on what they're running on beyond 'We're Not Trump,' which may or may not be enough, with a presidential candidate age 77 who sometimes seems confused. People can't even be confident the election will work, that it will be orderly, that the old rough integrity of the system will hold. They know there will likely be no 'election night' with states called and a winner declared. But will there be an election week? Month? When you look toward Washington it's not solid ground, it's more shifting sand. And so the mood this charged summer of '20: Everyone's scared, everyone's trying to figure out where safety is, everyone's afraid of making a mistake. You aren't alone. The whole vast middle of the country now is a Coalition of the Worried."

America Is Headed for an Unprecedented Wave of Evictions -The Nation
"The disappearance of renter protections imposed in the wake of the pandemic will almost certainly lead to the worst housing crisis in a generation....When Congress passed the CARES Act, it included a moratorium on evictions in any federally subsidized housing. Any landlord with a federally subsidized loan through, say, Fannie Mae or Freddie Mac, or who accepts Section 8 rent vouchers, couldn't legally evict tenants. But those expired on July 27 as Congress failed to pass an extension....One in five renters was behind on rent at the beginning of July, while about a third of American households missed their housing payment that month. The disappearance of eviction moratoriums will almost certainly lead to a housing crisis the likes of which the country hasn't seen in a generation. Estimates vary: One puts the number of households at risk of eviction at 17 million, while another predicts that between 19 million and 23 million people could face eviction by the end of September. Another found that as many as 28 million people could face eviction or foreclosure....Extending moratoriums is not a solution but a bridge, advocates stress. Many want to buy time until Congress passes substantial rental assistance."

Covid-19 will be painful for universities, but also bring change -The Economist
"For students, covid-19 is making life difficult. Many must choose between inconveniently timed seminars streamed into their parents' living rooms and inconveniently deferring their studies until life is more normal. For universities, it is disastrous. They will not only lose huge chunks of revenue from foreign students but, because campus life spreads infection, they will have to transform the way they operate. Yet the disaster may have an upside. For many years government subsidies and booming demand have allowed universities to resist changes that could benefit both students and society. They may not be able to do so for much longer....Governments have been turning against universities, too. In an age when politics divides along educational lines, universities struggle to persuade some politicians of their merit...Many politicians suspect that universities are not teaching the right subjects, and are producing more graduates than labor markets need....There are questions about the benefits to students, too. The graduate premium is healthy enough, on average, for a degree to be financially worthwhile, but not for everybody. In Britain the Institute for Fiscal Studies has calculated that a fifth of graduates would be better off if they had never gone to university. In America four in ten students still do not graduate six years after starting their degree - and, for those who do, the wage premium is shrinking....The damage from Covid-19 means that, in the short term at least, universities will be more dependent on governments than ever...Those that survive must learn from the pandemic. Until now most of them, especially the ones at the top of the market, have resisted putting undergraduate courses online...Now change is being forced upon them...Many students buy the university experience not just to boost their earning capacity, but also to get away from their parents, make friends and find partners. But it should also cut costs, by giving students the option of living at home while studying....There is huge scope for using digital technology to improve education. Poor in-person lectures could be replaced by online ones from the best in the world, freeing up time for the small-group teaching which students value most."

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8.7.20 - Why Markets Don't Seem to Care If the Economy Stinks

Gold last traded at $2,033 an ounce. Silver at $28.08 an ounce.

NEWS SUMMARY: Precious metal prices record-breaking 9-week rally paused on Friday for a healthy dose of profit-taking. U.S. stocks traded lower as tensions between China and the U.S., coupled with ongoing coronavirus stimulus negotiations, dampened the market's enthusiasm over an upbeat jobs report.

Gold At $3K? $50 Silver? BofA Raises Metal Price Targets -Yahoo Finance
"Gold prices once again hit new all-time highs Wednesday after breaking the $2,000-per-ounce level for the first time ever this week. Fortunately for precious metal investors, BofA Securities said global economic conditions suggest even more upside ahead...Traders have been flocking to gold in 2020 as a safety investment during a period of economic uncertainty. Gold is also an inflation hedge after the Federal Reserve issued trillions of dollars of stimulus earlier this year. The Fed is expected to commit to near-zero interest rates until inflation hits its 2% target. BofA Securities analyst Michael Jalonen said he's bullish on gold, and BofA raised its average 2021 real gold price forecast from $2,012 to $2,159. The firm also raised its 2021 real silver average price forecast from $21.95 to $30.49....'Continued fiscal spending as governments are mending the damage from COVID-19, backstopped by central banks means that interest rates will remain low, at the same time as the economy reflates,' Jalonen said in a note. Investors can expect gold prices to peak at $3,000 within the next 18 months, the analyst said."

for lease Why Markets Don't Seem to Care If the Economy Stinks -Ritholtz/Bloomberg
"The stock market has been on a tear, yet the economy is in the dumps. So why do so many people believe - undoubtedly incorrectly - that the stock market has decoupled from reality? The economy many people experience, while bleak, is local, personal and, for the most part, either not publicly traded or plays only a small part in the stock market's moves....The surprising conclusion: The most visible and economically vulnerable industries are also among the smallest, based on their market-capitalization weight in major indexes such as the S&P 500. Markets, it turns out, are not especially vulnerable to highly visible but relatively tiny industries. The 30 most economically damaged industry categories could be de-listed before tomorrow's market open, and it would hardly shave more than a few percentage points off the S&P 500. This is so despite the worst U.S. economic collapse since the Great Depression. All of the economic data is so bad that figures on gross domestic product, unemployment and initial jobless claims must be re-scaled to even fit on charts. But the U.S. economy is not the stock market and vice versa...The so-called FAANGs derive about half - and in some cases even more - of their revenue from abroad. Beyond that, the pandemic lockdown in the U.S. has benefited the giant tech companies' sales and profits. No wonder the Nasdaq Composite 100 Index, which is dominated by big tech companies, is up about 26% this year....On some level, it's completely understandable why many people believe that markets are no longer tethered to reality because the performance doesn't correspond to their personal experience, which is one of job loss, economic hardship and personal despair. But what's important to understand is that indexes based on market-cap weighting can be - as they are now - driven by the gains of just a handful of companies."

Millions in currency seized at airports, often due to reporting violation -AJC
"Arlington, Virginia-based law firm Institute for Justice says in a new study that, from 2000 to 2016, more than $2 billion was seized by U.S. Customs and Border Protection and other Homeland Security agencies at airports nationally, including $108.8 million at the Atlanta airport. Sometimes, travelers get their money back. But the law firm is arguing that, too many times, it takes months - and that can have long-lasting consequences....People can travel with any amount of money, but are required to report when they transport more than $10,000 in currency in or out of the country. The report can be filed via an online form or by asking a CBP officer for a paper form at a port of entry. Of the money confiscated at Hartsfield-Jackson, in about 64% of the 1,287 seizures in that 17-year period, some amount of money was ultimately forfeited, according the Institute for Justice's study of a U.S. Treasury forfeiture database. The law firm argues that less than a third of the seizures of currency involve an arrest and wants to see the abolishment of administrative forfeiture, which allows a federal agency to seize assets without judicial involvement. 'Congress must reform civil forfeiture,' said Institute for Justice senior research analyst Jennifer McDonald in a written statement. 'No one should lose their property without being convicted of a crime.'"

The Uncertain Future of Places That Preserve America's Past -TIME
"Based on a survey of 760 museum directors released July 22, the American Alliance of Museums says one-third of institutions are not confident that they will survive past the next 16 months, and the same portion expect to lose 40% or more of their budgeted operating income for 2020. More than half (56%) have less than six months of operating reserves. Already museums are losing at least $33 million a day....'The impact of current financial crisis as a result of the pandemic is worse than anything we have seen, certainly that I have seen in my 20-plus-year career in nonprofit finance,' says Laura Lott, president and CEO of the American Alliance of Museums. That doesn't mean museums are giving up. In Salem, that's meant adding a fee to access the gardens, and institutions around the U.S. are seeking their own ways to ensure historic sites stay central to their communities for years to come....One July poll found that only a third of Americans were concerned about local museums, compared with three-fourths concerned about local restaurants and other businesses. And yet, if these sites don't make it, the loss will run deep. Museums exert an enormous economic impact: in an ordinary year, more people go to them than to major-league sports and theme parks combined. Annually, they contribute $50 billion to the U.S. economy, boast more than 726,000 jobs and generate $12 billion in tax revenue. Less tangibly but no less importantly, these places serve as both community spaces and repositories for memory. For individuals, museums are vital for researching family and local history."

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8.6.20 - Bailouts Won't Stop Credit Card Defaults

Gold last traded at $2,067 an ounce. Silver at $28.38 an ounce.

NEWS SUMMARY: Precious metal prices extended gains Thursday amid growing bullish sentiment and safe-haven buying. U.S. stocks slipped as traders awaited clues on a new coronavirus stimulus package and digested the latest unemployment data.

More Bailout Cash Won't Stop Wave of Credit Card Defaults -Bloomberg
"Despite the coronavirus and millions of jobless claims driving the U.S. economy deeper into recession, the flood of credit card delinquencies that some predicted has yet to materialize. Instead, card debt has actually gone down since the pandemic struck, with many consumers spending less while using bailout money to chip away at balances. But that may not last. Even if Congress passes a new rescue package with more unemployment benefits, the cumulative effect of the ongoing economic catastrophe may finally trigger that default deluge, a new survey reveals. More than half of consumers with credit card debt said they will need more bailout money to make minimum payments over the next three months, but about the same number said employment will be more critical to avoiding default. And right now, roughly 30 million Americans are claiming unemployment benefits. 'I think the overall trend [of credit card debt going down] masks some of the difficulty at the household level, and I do fear that we're going to have more people relying on cards for financing and relying on cards just to make ends meet,' said Ted Rossman, an industry analyst at CreditCards.com, which sponsored the survey. More than one-third of respondents said they had credit card debt. Of those, three in 10 said a lack of additional money from Congress would have a major effect on their ability to make minimum payments between now and mid-October. But even so, 61% of respondents said that not being able to work in the coming months would affect their ability to pay, with majorities of currently full-time employed and unemployed people saying it would have a 'major effect.' More than 60 million Americans used credit cards to meet spending needs within the previous week, according to Census Bureau survey data from July."

gold Gold Barrels Past $2,000 With Stage Set to Rally Further -Yahoo Finance
"Gold advanced to a fresh record beyond $2,000 an ounce as investors assessed increased geopolitical risks and the prospect for further stimulus to combat fallout from the coronavirus pandemic. Bullion is up almost 35% this year, with its haven status enhanced by sliding U.S. real yields. Gold could extend gains as governments and central banks respond to slowing growth with vast amounts of stimulus. The metal's appeal is strengthening as the dollar weakens and a long global recovery looms. Goldman Sachs Group Inc. forecasts a rally to $2,300. 'The stage has been set for gold to continue to climb higher,' Paul Wong, market strategist at Sprott Inc., said in a report. 'We see increased fiscal spending ahead, extremely accommodative monetary policy in place for years and a challenging economic recovery.'....Friday will bring an update of the U.S. labor market in July, with economists expecting unemployment to decline to 10.5%. Even if the data shows some recovery, it will likely still signal greater inflation expectations so long as the Federal Reserve leaves its target rate near zero, which would be positive for gold, Carsten Fritsch, commodity analyst at Commerzbank AG, said by phone. Shifts in the U.S. bond market have helped underpin gold's ascent. Real yields on 10-year Treasuries have collapsed below zero. Still, on CPI-adjusted measures they remain above levels seen during previous gold-price peaks, said Adrian Ash, head of research at BullionVault. That means gold could go 'a long way higher than $2,000 per ounce,' he said."

Who Bears the Burden of Dollars' Falling Purchasing Power? -AIER
"Economists are strange creatures. They use odd words for everyday events; they say things that sound counterintuitive to most people; and they specialize in complicated trade-offs when what the wider public wants usually is simple answers....Rent control, for instance, or tariffs of various kinds - two topics where economists overwhelmingly (90-95% or more) agree: those policies harm the people they intend to help. Don't do them. The public is much less eager to side with the experts here. Another such topic for us monetary geeks is the burden of a falling purchasing power - or what we otherwise call inflation...The dollar, the argument goes, has 'lost its value,' to the tune of some large number over some long-time period, say by 97% or 99.5% over a century. Such numbers are usually correct, at least if you read official statistics like the Fed's Consumer Price Index for Urban Consumers: $1 in 1913 would buy you roughly what would require $26.15 in 2020 - a cumulative loss of a little over 96%.....Mistaking nominal changes for real changes is so pervasive that it even has its own term: money illusion. To judge whether inflation is a burden, predictability is a much bigger problem: a variable rate makes (long-term) planning difficult; a stable 2% decline in the purchasing power of a monetary unit does not. While one virtue of the Classical Gold Standard was that the price level was anchored in the long run (money held its value over decades), what you could purchase with your money was wholly unpredictable in the short run. From one year to the next, it could fluctuate in purchasing power by magnitudes of 5-10%. Holding rent money in a currency that can rise or drop 10% overnight is a financial risk that few people are willing to take. Much of the issue of inflation's burden instead turns on whether it was expected or not. When inflation is expected, as is the case when central banks have anchored their targets (and actually hit them), economists usually don't see much loss done to anyone....If we have inflation of a magnitude other than what was expected, the story changes."

World Gov'ts Eye Blockchain As Dollar's Power Wanes, Says Ripple CEO -Zero Hedge
"Blockchain is offering global governments a serious alternative to a strained financial system, Ripple CEO Brad Garlinghouse says. Cryptocurrency advocates have long been keen to point to the weaknesses of fiat currency. Now an uncertain world rocked by a global health crisis and geopolitical flare-ups is bringing them into dialogue with the mainstream more than ever. In a tweet thread published on Aug. 3, Ripple CEO Brad Garlinghouse engaged with a recent article in Bloomberg, which had surveyed the gamut of potential alternatives to the dollar as the world's reserve currency. The article spanned gold, several major fiat currencies - the yen, yuan and euro - the Special Drawing Rights issued by the IMF, and ended with cryptocurrencies....The COVID-19 economic crisis began bullishly for the U.S. dollar, with investors fleeing to its 'refuge' early on - spurring an exceptional 9% rally. But this familiar pattern has been upended as the crisis wears on. July was the greenback's worst month in a decade. Its recent dip reflects mounting diplomatic tensions between the U.S. and China and the uneasy settlement that the dollar's dominance represents in a tumultuous and multipolar world, thrown into sharp relief by the pandemic....The United States' faltering response to the public health crisis and internal political polarizations have arguably contributed to a loss in its soft power, and investors in the U.S. bond market appear to be pricing-in a disappointing U.S. economic recovery."

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8.5.20 - Stocks Give Us a Distorted Economic Picture

Gold last traded at $2,049 an ounce. Silver at $26.96 an ounce.

NEWS SUMMARY: Precious metal prices extended gains Wednesday on safe-haven and momentum buying as well as a sharply weaker dollar. U.S. stocks rose on CV-19 vaccine hopes, despite downbeat jobs data and continuing negotiations on a new virus stimulus package.

Why looking at the stock market won't give you full picture of US economy -Gasparino/New York Post
"Between the federal government and the Federal Reserve, about $10 trillion has been pumped into the US economy to prevent a pandemic-fueled economic collapse. Judging by the stock market, you would think we've sidestepped a 2008-size disaster. But stocks, at least in the short run, are rarely a good indication of what's festering inside the US economy. A better oracle is certain aspects of the bond market, particularly those that are tied to real estate. And just like in the prelude to the 2008 collapse, when the stock market was at all-time highs, this particular market is signaling a warning sign that the economy is headed for trouble....Delinquencies and defaults are rising on the mortgages of malls, high rises and office buildings. It's easy to see why: In New York City, will the much-heralded Hudson Yards complex ever reopen? Millions of upper-income New Yorkers are fleeing the city not just because of the pandemic but rising disorder. And who wants to shop in a mall when you need to get your temperature checked every time you walk into a store? It's not just a New York phenomenon. Does anyone really want to work in downtown Portland, Seattle, or San Francisco any time soon? The underpinnings of the commercial real estate market - an estimated $16 trillion business - have begun to turn significantly negative, posing an enormous systemic risk to the US economy....Maybe New York's political leaders will open the city up and help save the commercial real estate market and the economy with it. (Stop laughing.) But those are all big bets, and ones that more and more smart people aren't willing to take."

Why Gold Prices Are Hitting All-Time Highs -Wall Street Journal
"The precious metal has soared roughly 30% in 2020 to stop just short of closing at $2,000 a troy ounce - which would be an all-time high in New York trading - as it outstrips the Nasdaq Composite Index of high-flying technology stocks....There are two gold markets, closely linked because investment banks and other big players are active in both. The first is the physical market, which brings together miners, refiners, jewelers, central banks, electronics manufacturers, banks and investors....The second market is the futures market, for swapping financial contracts based on gold. This market is electronic, hosted by New York's Comex exchange....Most traders exit futures trades before they actually exchange gold. Recently, however, more investors have taken delivery of gold on the Comex, a sign demand for physical gold is unusually high."

gold chart

"The Federal Reserve's March decision to slash interest rates to just above zero and buy hundreds of billions of dollars of bonds has pulled down yields in fixed-income markets, prompting investors to buy gold instead....'Gold is a haven,' said Rhona O'Connell, head of market analysis for Europe, the Middle East, Africa and Asia at StoneX Group. 'It doesn't have anyone else's political or financial risk associated with it.' Another tailwind for gold right now is the depreciation in the dollar....Gold is treated like any other commodity on banks' balance sheets under the Basel III regulatory guidelines, designed to avoid a repeat of the 2008-9 financial crisis. Gold is also a currency. For millennia, the metal has functioned as a store of value, unit of account and medium of exchange....'It is more a currency than a commodity,' said Dr. O'Connor. 'Everything else, to one degree or another, gets used up and doesn't come back into the market. Gold just stays there.'" NOTE: As the chart indicates, gold prices would need to rise above $2,750/oz. to reach a true, inflation-adjust new high.

The Pandemic Is a Dress Rehearsal -Mead/Wall Street Journal
"Eight months after the novel coronavirus burst out of Wuhan, China, it has created unprecedented economic and social disruption, with economies cratering across the globe and more destruction to come. Tens of millions have lost their jobs, and millions more have seen their life savings disappear as governments forced restaurants, bars and other small businesses to shut their doors. Wealthy societies are able, for now, to print and pump money in hope of limiting the social and economic damage, but such measures cannot be extended forever. For the first time since the 1940s, political authorities around the world face a flood of economic and political challenges that could overwhelm the safeguards built into the system. Science will, we must hope, come to the rescue with a vaccine or a cure before our resources are exhausted...The end of the pandemic does not mean a return to the relatively stable world of the post-Cold War era. The pandemic, which is mild as the great plagues of history go, demonstrates that the complexity of this global civilization has become a source of new vulnerabilities...Covid-19 challenges political leaders and institutions in ways that they cannot easily manage. The world needs to get used to that feeling. The pandemic's legacy will be crisis and chaos....The transformation of the workplace by information technology has been a bright spot in the pandemic, allowing many businesses and important institutions to continue functioning even as key employees stay home. But the same transformation is also driving many of the forces destabilizing society....A host of 21st-century problems threaten to overwhelm the institutions of both national and global governance... Covid-19 is less a transient, random disturbance after which the world will return to stability than it is a dress rehearsal for challenges to come. History is accelerating, and the leaders, values, institutions and ideas that guide society are going to be tested severely by the struggles ahead."

Laughter acts as a stress buffer - and even smiling helps -University of Basel
"People who laugh frequently in their everyday lives may be better equipped to deal with stressful events - although this does not seem to apply to the intensity of laughter. These are the findings reported by a research team from the University of Basel in the journal Plos One. It is estimated that people typically laugh 18 times a day - generally during interactions with other people and depending on the degree of pleasure they experience. Researchers have also reported differences related to time of day, age, and gender - for example, it is known that women smile more than men on average. Now, researchers from the Division of Clinical Psychology and Epidemiology of the Department of Psychology at the University of Basel have recently conducted a study on the relationship between stressful events and laughter in terms of perceived stress in everyday life....The questions related to the frequency and intensity of laughter and the reason for laughing - as well as any stressful events or stress symptoms experienced - in the time since the last signal....The first result of the observational study was expected based on the specialist literature: in phases in which the subjects laughed frequently, stressful events were associated with more minor symptoms of subjective stress. However, the second finding was unexpected. When it came to the interplay between stressful events and intensity of laughter (strong, medium or weak), there was no statistical correlation with stress symptoms."

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8.4.20 - Silver: Poor Man's Gold No More?

Gold last traded at $2,025 an ounce. Silver at $26.13 an ounce.

NEWS SUMMARY: Precious metals rallied Tuesday, with gold prices cresting $2,000/oz and silver rushing past $25/oz., on bullish momentum and a weaker dollar. U.S. stocks rose modestly as lawmakers try to come to a bipartisan agreement on a new coronavirus stimulus package.

Silver: poor man's gold no more? -Saefong/Marketwatch
"Investors have focused on a rise in record prices for gold, but silver's up about 25% in July - the metal's second-biggest monthly gain on record - and it's still undervalued compared with the yellow metal. 'Silver is often called the 'poor man's gold' because some of the same factors that cause gold prices to rise do the same thing to silver prices,' says Ed Moy, chief market strategist at gold retailer Valaurum. 'And what is driving gold prices now are mainly the fear of inflation due to the magnitude of the monetary and fiscal stimulus worldwide, and the flight to safety due to the uncertainty around how and when the global economy will recover.' Silver, however, is 'cheaper per ounce' than gold, and its prices are much more volatile, he says. It has also been 'lagging behind gold's rise' and the ratio of the number of ounces of silver to buy one ounce of gold is historically high...If silver is underpriced, 'there is a lot of money to be made,' says Moy, who was director of the U.S. Mint from 2006 to 2011....'Silver is not even halfway to its all-time high,' says Ryan Giannotto, director of research at exchange-traded-fund-issuer GraniteShares. While it's unlikely silver would more than double in the immediate future, it's "unwise to rule out extreme scenarios." It takes more than 80 ounces of silver to buy one ounce of gold. Though the ratio has seen a significant decline in recent months, it's still well above the typical gold-to-silver ratio, which Moy pegs at one ounce of gold to 60 ounces of silver....Ross Norman, CEO of precious-metals news and information provider Metals Daily, says the ratio between the metals rose to a 4,000-year high at 126 on March 18. 'It has been clear for some time that silver was excessively cheap compared to gold,' he says. The ratio is still historically high, 'suggesting there is scope for greater gains in silver still.'....For most individual investors, government-made silver bullion coins are an attractive way to invest, he says, and governments guarantee the weight, content, and purity of each coin."

dollar Behind the Vast Market Rally: A Tumbling Dollar -Wall Street Journal
"The ICE Dollar Index, which measures the dollar against a basket of other major currencies, in July notched its worst month in nearly a decade and recently hit a two-year low. The fall extended a reversal that began in late March, spurred lately by ballooning worries that mounting coronavirus cases will stall the U.S. economic rebound...Big-name investors such as Ray Dalio and Jeffrey Gundlach have recently said publicly that the flood of U.S. government spending being injected into the financial system could eventually stoke inflation, eroding consumers' purchasing power. Surging budget deficits tend to make investors less likely to hold a country's currency. Fitch Ratings on Friday revised its credit rating outlook for the U.S. to negative from stable. At the same time, the currency's slide is adding further support to the booming market rally, lifting stocks and commodities. A weaker dollar boosts multinational companies, which see their products get more competitive abroad and can more easily convert overseas profits into dollars. 'These things are denominated in dollars, and the dollar is getting crushed,' said Christopher Stanton, chief investment officer of Sunrise Capital Partners. He expects the trend to continue and is directly wagering against the currency, betting on gains in the euro against the dollar and buying gold, which some investors are using as an alternative store of value. Gold recently climbed to all-time highs for the first time since 2011....Net investor bets on a weaker dollar recently climbed to their highest level since April 2018, Commodity Futures Trading Commission data compiled by Scotiabank show. 'We are in a stage of very high momentum,' said Ed Al-Hussainy, senior interest-rate and currency analyst at Columbia Threadneedle Investments....Investors say that the economic picture could make this dollar slide longer lasting."

Data collected from your phone is being used to score you -Washington Post
"Operating in the shadows of the online marketplace, specialized tech companies you've likely never heard of are tapping vast troves of our personal data to generate secret 'surveillance scores' - digital mug shots of millions of Americans - that supposedly predict our future behavior. The firms sell their scoring services to major businesses across the U.S. economy. People with low scores can suffer harsh consequences. CoreLogic and TransUnion say that scores they peddle to landlords can predict whether a potential tenant will pay the rent on time, be able to 'absorb rent increases,' or break a lease. Large employers use HireVue, a firm that generates an 'employability' score about candidates by analyzing 'tens of thousands of factors,' including a person's facial expressions and voice intonations. Other employers use Cornerstone's score, which considers where a job prospect lives and which web browser they use to judge how successful they will be at a job. Brand-name retailers purchase 'risk scores' from Retail Equation to help make judgments about whether consumers commit fraud when they return goods for refunds. Players in the gig economy use outside firms such as Sift to score consumers' 'overall trustworthiness.'....Surveillance scoring is the product of two trends. First is the rampant (and mostly unregulated) collection of every intimate detail about our lives, amassed by the nanosecond from smartphones to cars, toasters to toys. This fire hose of data - most of which we surrender voluntarily - includes our demographics, income, facial characteristics, the sound of our voice, our precise location, shopping history, medical conditions, genetic information, what we search for on the Internet, the websites we visit, when we read an email, what apps we use and how long we use them, and how often we sleep, exercise and the like. The second trend driving these scores is the arrival of technologies able to instantaneously crunch this data: exponentially more powerful computers and high-speed communications systems such as 5G, which lead to the scoring algorithms that use artificial intelligence to rate all of us in some way. The result: automated decisions, based on each consumer's unique score, that are, as a practical matter, irreversible. That's because the entire process - the scores themselves, as well as the data upon which they are based - is concealed from us....The tech industry insists that its every advance improves our lives. But that's a myth. Surveillance scoring enables companies to cloak old-school discrimination in an aura of technological infallibility and wonder....Secret surveillance scoring places us at the precipice of the 'singularity,' a dystopian turning point after which machines will make judgments about humans that will determine our fate. We either seize control of our future, or risk losing it."

Do some people have protection against the coronavirus? -Dr. Grupta/Kane/CNN
"Why do some people get very sick and even die from their illness, while other similar people show no symptoms and may not realize they've been infected at all? We know some of the big factors that put people at higher risk of having a severe, even fatal, course of disease: being over 60; being overweight or obese; having one or more chronic diseases such as diabetes, cardiovascular disease, kidney or lung disease, and cancer; and being a person of color - Black, Latinx or Native American. But might the opposite also be true: Could certain people actually have some type of protection? A recently published summary article in the journal Nature Reviews Immunology put forth a tantalizing possibility: A large percentage of the population appears to have immune cells that are able to recognize parts of the SARS-CoV-2 virus, and that may possibly be giving them a head start in fighting off an infection. In other words, some people may have some unknown degree of protection. 'What we found is that people that had never been exposed to SARS Cov2 ... about half of the people had some T-cell reactivity,' co-author of the paper Alessandro Sette from the Center for Infectious Disease and Vaccine Research at La Jolla Institute for Immunology, told CNN....They speculate that this T cell recognition of parts of the SARS-CoV-2 virus may come in part from past exposure to one of the four known circulating coronaviruses that cause the common cold in millions of people every year....There are also implications for when we might achieve 'herd immunity' - meaning that enough of the population is immune to SARS-CoV-2, thanks either to infection or vaccination, and the virus can no longer be as easily transmitted...If you have 50% already in a way immune, because of these existing immune responses, then you don't need 60 to 80%, you need 10 to 30% - you have covered the 50% already."

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8.3.20 - The Lockdown's Destruction -Editors/WSJ

Gold last traded at $1,992 an ounce. Silver at $24.51 an ounce.

NEWS SUMMARY: Precious metal prices steadied near recent highs on a firmer dollar and mild profit-taking. U.S. stocks rose, led by tech giant Microsoft, amid upbeat economic data and rising government stimulus agreement hopes.

7 Reasons Gold Will Continue to Soar to Record Highs -Motley Fool
"This has not been an easy year for Wall Street and investors to digest. The coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic has turned societal habits on their head and displaced more than 20 million workers. It also sent equities to their steepest and fastest tailspin in history during the first quarter, only to see the market rebound ferociously over the past four months. Frankly, no one has any idea what to expect next. However, one group of investors who aren't going to complain are those who own physical gold or gold mining stocks. Physical gold has set two consecutive record-closing highs to begin the week, and is now up almost $390 an ounce in just the past six months. Gold has left the benchmark S&P 500 eating its dust in 2020, and there's a very good probability that this will continue for the foreseeable future. Below you'll find seven reasons why this gold rally still has very long legs. 1. Historically low global bond yields - To begin with, physical gold is ascending to the heavens because income seekers have a narrowing list of options to generate guaranteed income....2. Unlimited quantitative easing - Another reason gold can be expected to continue rocketing higher can be traced to the Federal Reserve's implementation of unlimited quantitative easing....3. Bullion shortages - Never forget the importance of supply-and-demand economics. If demand outpaces supply, the price of a good or service will rise...For months, there have been on-and-off gold bullion shortages....4. Geopolitical risk - Gold is also a haven investment...Although the world is united in their fight against COVID-19...trade tensions between the U.S. and China from once again heating up....5. COVID-19 fear and uncertainty - Gold is often known as a safe-haven investment during periods of panic and fear. The unprecedented nature of the coronavirus pandemic certainly has folks on edge....6. Bull markets are usually long lasting - Gold has history on its side. Although spikes higher do happen in the gold market, it's far more common to see the physical metal enter long bull-market cycles....7. Emotion-driven investing - Finally, don't discount emotion-driven short-term trading as a reason behind higher gold prices....Gold hitting $3,000 by 2022 is a very real possibility."

lockdown The Lockdown's Destruction -Editors/Wall Street Journal
"Democrats and their media allies have trapped themselves in a contradiction. They are deploring last Thursday's grim second-quarter GDP report even as they demand a repeat of the lockdown that caused the economic catastrophe. What do they expect when government orders Americans to sit in their homes for weeks? That's the main message from the 32.9% decline in GDP, the worst ever recorded. The damage extended across the private economy - from business investment to manufacturing and housing. But the greatest harm was from the collapse of consumer spending as the shutdown crushed the service economy. Consumer spending fell 34.6% and accounted for some 25 percentage points of the GDP decline. The fall in transportation, recreation, food services and hotels was brutal. But the biggest surprise was the plunge in health-care spending during a health-care crisis. Health care represents about 12% of the U.S. economy and its collapse subtracted 9.5 percentage points from GDP....The economic harm from stopping all elective surgeries and barring visits to doctors was severe and unnecessary. It was also a terrible public-health blunder. That harm will play out for years as Americans discover cancer, heart-disease and other diagnoses that were missed or delayed. Notably, Congress's nearly $3 trillion in appropriations couldn't stop the economic collapse...The GDP decline shows that $1,200 cash payments and jobless benefits can't replace a dynamic private economy....Hard to believe, but some on the left are stumping for a second nationwide lockdown to control the virus. Shut the U.S. down again until October when the scourge will be gone for good. Do they want another 33% decline in GDP and 40 million more unemployed?....The public is smarter than the media and can adjust its behavior when flare-ups occur."

The Myth of the Failure of Capitalism -Ludwig von Mises/Mises.org
"Capitalism allegedly has failed, has proven itself incapable of solving economic problems, and so mankind has no alternative, if it is to survive, than to make the transition to a planned economy, to socialism. This is hardly a new idea. The socialists have always maintained that economic crises are the inevitable result of the capitalistic method of production and that there is no other means of eliminating economic crises than the transition to socialism. If these assertions are expressed more forcefully these days and evoke greater public response, it is not because the present crisis is greater or longer than its predecessors, but rather primarily because today public opinion is much more strongly influenced by socialist views than it was in previous decades. When there was no economic theory, the belief was that whoever had power and was determined to use it could accomplish anything. In the interest of their spiritual welfare and with a view toward their reward in Heaven, rulers were admonished by their priests to exercise moderation in their use of power. Also, it was not a question of what limits the inherent conditions of human life and production set for this power, but rather that they were considered boundless and omnipotent in the sphere of social affairs. The foundation of social sciences, the work of a large number of great intellects, of whom David Hume and Adam Smith are most outstanding, has destroyed this conception. One discovered that social power was a spiritual one and not (as was supposed) a material and, in the rough sense of the word, a real one....Economic theory predicted the effects of interventionism and state and municipal socialism exactly as they happened....Liberalism cannot be deemed responsible for any of the institutions which give today's economic policies their character. It was against the nationalization and the bringing under municipal control of projects which now show themselves to be catastrophes for the public sector and a source of filthy corruption; it was against the denial of protection for those willing to work and against placing state power at the disposal of the trade unions, against unemployment compensation, which has made unemployment a permanent and universal phenomenon, against social insurance, which has made those insured into grumblers, malingers, and neurasthenics, against tariffs (and thereby implicitly against cartels), against the limitation of freedom to live, to travel, or study where one likes, against excessive taxation and against inflation, against armaments, against colonial acquisitions, against the oppression of minorities, against imperialism and against war....The line of argument that leads to blaming capitalism for at least some of these things is based on the notion that entrepreneurs and capitalists are no longer liberal but interventionist and statist. The fact is correct, but the conclusions people want to draw from it are wrong-headed....Because many ventures depend on political favors, those who undertake such ventures must repay the politicians with favors....It is true that socialism and interventionism have not yet succeeded in completely eliminating capitalism. If they had, we Europeans, after centuries of prosperity, would rediscover the meaning of hunger on a massive scale....The crisis under which the world is presently suffering is the crisis of interventionism and of state and municipal socialism, in short the crisis of anticapitalist policies. Capitalist society is guided by the play of the market mechanism. On that issue there is no difference of opinion....Bastiat has not failed, but rather Marx and Schmoller."

Together, You Can Redeem the Soul of Our Nation -Lewis/New York Times
"[Mr. Lewis, the civil rights leader who died on July 17, wrote this essay shortly before his death, to be published upon the day of his funeral.] While my time here has now come to an end, I want you to know that in the last days and hours of my life you inspired me. You filled me with hope about the next chapter of the great American story when you used your power to make a difference in our society. Millions of people motivated simply by human compassion laid down the burdens of division. Around the country and the world you set aside race, class, age, language and nationality to demand respect for human dignity....Though I was surrounded by two loving parents, plenty of brothers, sisters and cousins, their love could not protect me from the unholy oppression waiting just outside that family circle....If we are to survive as one unified nation, we must discover what so readily takes root in our hearts that could rob Mother Emanuel Church in South Carolina of her brightest and best, shoot unwitting concertgoers in Las Vegas and choke to death the hopes and dreams of a gifted violinist like Elijah McClain. Like so many young people today, I was searching for a way out, or some might say a way in, and then I heard the voice of Dr. Martin Luther King Jr. on an old radio. He was talking about the philosophy and discipline of nonviolence. He said we are all complicit when we tolerate injustice. He said it is not enough to say it will get better by and by. He said each of us has a moral obligation to stand up, speak up and speak out...Democracy is not a state. It is an act, and each generation must do its part to help build what we called the Beloved Community, a nation and world society at peace with itself. Ordinary people with extraordinary vision can redeem the soul of America by getting in what I call good trouble, necessary trouble. Voting and participating in the democratic process are key. The vote is the most powerful nonviolent change agent you have in a democratic society. You must use it because it is not guaranteed. You can lose it. You must also study and learn the lessons of history because humanity has been involved in this soul-wrenching, existential struggle for a very long time....Though I may not be here with you, I urge you to answer the highest calling of your heart and stand up for what you truly believe. In my life I have done all I can to demonstrate that the way of peace, the way of love and nonviolence is the more excellent way. Now it is your turn to let freedom ring...So I say to you, walk with the wind, brothers and sisters, and let the spirit of peace and the power of everlasting love be your guide."

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7.31.20 - The Road To Inflation by 2022

Gold last traded at $1,971 an ounce. Silver at $24.08 an ounce.

NEWS SUMMARY: Precious metal prices shot upward, with gold reaching toward $2,000/oz and silver fast approaching $25/oz., on continued safe-haven buying. U.S. stocks traded mixed as investors weighed growing negative economic sentiment with strong tech earnings.

Gold - The Currency Of Last Resort -Dimitrov/Seeking Alpha
"The way I see gold is as a special form of currency. A currency that becomes relevant only at times when the risk for the global financial system runs very high. Not the risk of recession nor the equity risk, but rather the risk of the stability of the monetary regime. This is my reason to holding gold as part of my portfolio - as a form of insurance against monetary and fiscal authorities losing control or simply transitioning to a new system. Everyone would agree that one of the most important drivers of the price of gold is the level or real interest rate in the economy and for most of the time this is correct. Even if it's one of the most important drivers for gold during normal times, there is an even more powerful driver of gold prices - the overall risk for the existing monetary regime....The risk for the current monetary regime is significant and even if authorities manage the transition towards a new monetary system well, the level of uncertainty around it would provide a tailwind for gold prices....Holding gold as part of an equity portfolio in a barbell like strategy is my approach to ride the current wave of uncertainty and high risk. I don't see the precious metal as a speculative investment, nor as a simple inflation hedge. The way I see gold is a currency of last resort, which preserves purchasing power over the long term and gains ground at inflection points when the existing monetary system becomes less sustainable."

inflation The Road To Inflation -TSLombard
"Inflation remains an important theme for our clients. Perhaps this reflects supreme confidence in the policies governments and central banks have introduced to support their economies during the COVID-19 pandemic. With stimulus on a scale that is unprecedented outside of the two World Wars, it is not surprising some investors believe the authorities are doing ;too much'...So how serious is this threat? ...History shows inflation is vulnerable to sudden 'regime shifts' - which economists always fail to appreciate in real time - so it would be foolish to rule out big inflation surprises in the years ahead. The worst kept secret in macro is that economists don't really understand inflation. Yet, until recently, there was a still a dominant consensus - in the long term, inflation was "˜always and everywhere a monetary phenomenon'. Certainly, there has always been a compelling relationship between the money supply and inflation, at least over long enough horizons. The underlying behavior of inflation changed after the Gold Standard, which was also testimony to the power of the monetary regime....To be fair to economists, the behavior of inflation makes it inherently tricky to forecast. Since the end of the Gold Standard, it has followed a persistent 'random walk', vulnerable to large structural breaks. It is possible COVID-19 will trigger another regime shift in these dynamics....We can identify the conditions that seem most likely to produce an inflation episode (based on history). They include: 1) Recovery from the current global recession...2) A revival in the velocity of money...3) Large, ongoing fiscal support, especially when the economy no longer needs it...4) Central banks that are prepared to tolerate an 'inflation overshoot', having missed their targets in the opposite direction for much of the past 20 years. Combine these forces and you have a compelling inflation narrative for 2022 and beyond."

U.S. Economy Posts Record Downturn -Wall Street Journal
"The U.S. economy contracted at a record rate last quarter...The Commerce Department said U.S. gross domestic product - the value of all goods and services produced across the economy - fell at a 32.9% annual rate in the second quarter, or a 9.5% drop compared with the same quarter a year ago. Both figures were the steepest in records dating to 1947. The contraction came as states imposed lockdowns across the country to contain the coronavirus pandemic and then lifted restrictions....Separately, the Labor Department said applications for weekly unemployment benefits rose by 12,000 to 1.43 million in the week ended July 25, and the number of people receiving unemployment benefits increased by 867,000 to 17 million in the week ended July 18, signs the jobs recovery is losing momentum....A surge in virus infections since mid-June appears to be slowing the recovery in some states, according to some private-sector real-time data....The decline in GDP in the second quarter reflected the deep hit to consumer and business spending from lockdowns, social distancing and other initiatives aimed at containing the virus. Consumer spending fell at a 34.6% annual rate, amid sharp decreases in services spending like health care and lower spending on goods."

A Quarter Of All Household Income In The US Now Comes From The Government -Zero Hedge
"Following today's release of the latest Personal Income and Spending data, Wall Street was predictably focused on the changes in these two key series, which showed a modest slowdown in personal spending (to be expected one month after the savings rate in the US hit a record), coupled with a modest decline in personal income (as government benefits and stimulus checks slowed substantially). But while the change in the headline data was indeed notable, what was far more remarkable was less followed data showing just how reliant on the US government the population has become. We are referring, of course, to Personal Current Transfer payments which are essentially government sourced income such as unemployment benefits, welfare checks, and so on...As of June when total Personal Income was just below $20 trillion annualized, the government remains responsible for over a quarter of all income. Putting that number in perspective, in the 1950s and 1960s, transfer payment were around 7%. This number rose in the low teens starting in the mid-1970s (right after the Nixon Shock ended Bretton-Woods and closed the gold window). The number then jumped again after the financial crisis, spiking to the high teens. And now, the coronavirus has officially sent this number into the mid-20% range, after hitting a record high 31% in April. And that's how creeping banana republic socialism comes at you: first slowly, then fast."

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7.30.20 - Gold Prices Nears $2,000, Is $3,000 Next?

Gold last traded at $1,944 an ounce. Silver at $23.37 an ounce.

NEWS SUMMARY: Precious metal prices took a healthy breather Thursday on mild profit taking amid strong uptrend. U.S. stocks fell sharply as big tech shares declined as investors also digested a record 39.2% drop in GDP.

Gold Price Reached Almost $2,000 Today, Is $3,000 Next? -Forbes
"Gold prices are likely to continue their upward journey as investors know that the gold price has broken significant resistance. This resistance level, formed in 2011, reached an all-time high at $1921. As of today, the gold price is trading at $1967 and has reached as far as $1981. The gold price is up nearly 28% YTD. Gold prices have recorded the longest monthly winning streak since 2012...four consecutive months of gains. We have not seen this kind of momentum since 2012. Gold investors know that gold price has strong momentum. For them, the current rally is only the beginning. With a global dovish monetary policy and the central bank running their money printing machine at full pace, investors hope that the gold price will continue its rally until it touches $3,000 an ounce. From the outset, this may seem bizarre, but with a loose monetary policy in place and a significant stock market crash hiding behind closed doors, the gold price will likely continue its run."

gold chart Is This "Peak Gold"? -Bonner/Rogue Economics
"Here's a Bloomberg headline from yesterday: 'As Gold Smashes Records, Forecasters Ask Whether Peak Is Near' You have to wonder: Who are these forecasters? Where have they been? Do they have any idea what is going on? Gold has its nose in the air. Like a deer in a dry forest, it smells the smoke. It knows it's time to get out of town. On Monday, politicians threw another $1 trillion worth of tinder on the fire. The so-called HEALS Act would bring the deficit for the calendar year (the feds operate on a different 'fiscal' year) to $5 trillion - or about 25% of GDP. To spell it out: More spending = More deficits = More fake-money printing. And more fake money pushes up the price of real money - gold. As long as the money-printing continues, gold will continue to rise....The stock market represents hope for the future...Gold, on the other hand, is more of a reminder of the past"¦ a souvenir of all the plans and projects that never paid out as expected. Stocks are an indicator of giddy greed. Gold is a measure of sober fear. One is hope. The other is reality....So, what do you think?...Is this the 'bottom' for the U.S. economy"¦ and the peak in the yellow metal?....Or is this just the beginning"¦ the first act in a show that will last for years more? Are there whole forests yet to light up"¦ followed by houses, factories, furniture, books"¦ and ballot boxes?....There seems to be more than an even-odds chance that the trends now in motion will stay in motion"¦until the whole shebang - the economy, politics, and the social system, too - goes up in flames. As for the peak in gold"¦ it is probably still far ahead."

Fed Maintains Stimulus Commitment as Economic Outlook Dims -Wall Street Journal
"Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell said on Wednesday the U.S. economy faces a long road to recovery that will require greater public vigilance to prevent the spread of the coronavirus pandemic and more spending from Congress and the White House. Fed officials didn't announce new policy steps at the conclusion of their two-day meeting Wednesday and reiterated their pledge to maintain aggressive measures to support the economy....The economic backdrop has weakened somewhat since the Fed's rate-setting committee last met seven weeks ago. After surprising rebounds in employment in May and June, many states have seen significant increases in virus infections, leading to renewed curbs on certain commercial activities and a dampening of consumer confidence. Mr. Powell said various data sources the Fed monitors suggested hiring and consumer spending had slowed recently....Mr. Powell warned that even if the reopening of the economy later this year goes well and millions of people return to work, millions of others employed in industries that depend on large gatherings or close proximity indoors could be out of work for a long time."

Revisiting the White Swans of 2020 -Roubini/Project Syndicate
"At the start of the year, when COVID-19 was barely on anyone's radar outside of China, the global economy was entering a fraught phase, facing a range of potentially devastating tail risks. And though the pandemic has since turned the world on its head, all of these threats remain - and some have become more salient....Since February, the COVID-19 outbreak in China did indeed explode into a pandemic, vindicating those of us who warned early on that the coronavirus would have severe consequences for the global economy. Owing to massive stimulus policies, the Greater Recession of 2020 has not become a Greater Depression...Alternatively, with so much uncertainty, risk aversion and deleveraging on the part of corporations, households, and even entire countries could result in a more anemic U-shaped recovery over time. But if the recent surge of COVID-19 cases in the United States and other countries is not controlled, and if a second wave occurs this fall and winter before a safe and effective vaccine is discovered, the economy would likely experience a W-shaped double-dip recession. ....As I predicted in February, the rivalry between the US and four revisionist powers - China, Russia, Iran, and North Korea - has accelerated in the run-up to November's US presidential election. There is growing concern that these countries are using cyber warfare to interfere with the election and deepen America's partisan divisions....Why are financial markets blissfully ignoring these risks? After falling by 30-40% at the beginning of the pandemic, many equity markets have recovered most of their losses, owing to the massive fiscal-policy response and hopes for an imminent COVID-19 vaccine...The problem is that what was true in February remains true today: the economy could still quickly be derailed by another economic, financial, geopolitical, or public-health tail risk, many of which have persisted and, in some cases, grown more acute during the current crisis."

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7.29.20 - Currency Debasement to Drive Gold to $2,300

Gold last traded at $1,947 an ounce. Silver at $23.46 an ounce.

NEWS SUMMARY: Precious metal prices steadied Wednesday near all-time highs on a weaker dollar ahead of Fedspeak. U.S. stocks traded slightly higher as investors awaited a congressional hearing on antitrust in Big Tech as well as the Federal Reserve's latest policy decision.

Currency debasement to drive gold price to $2,300 in 12 months -Goldman Sachs/Kitco News
"A fear of rising inflation, growing government debt and concerns that the U.S. dollar is embarking on a new downtrend are all factors that will push gold much higher, according to commodity analysts at Goldman Sachs. In a report Tuesday, analysts at the financial firm reiterated their view that gold will be the currency of last resort; they also increased their forecast for the precious metal. The bank now sees gold prices pushing to $2,300 an ounce within 12 months and silver prices rising to $30 an ounce, up from the previous forecast of $2000 and $22, respectively....The analysts see the potential for higher inflation as governments debase their currencies to deal with burgeoning debt...'When discussing the drivers of investment demand for gold and commodities, it is important to distinguish between debasement and inflation. The key is that the current debasement and debt accumulation sows the seeds for future inflationary risks despite inflationary risks remaining low today,' the analysts said."

dollar Tactical Update: Whither Goest The Dollar -Calhoun/Alhambra
"The most important factors for asset allocation are growth and the trend of the dollar. The uncertainty around those two variables these days is not unprecedented, but the only other comparable time was 2008. That might seem disconcerting at first, but remember that we did recover from 2008. It wasn't a very robust recovery and it took a long time but we did recover. And we'll recover from this virus too. As I've said many, many times, we aren't in the business of predicting the future, because that is an impossible task, but we are trying to interpret the present and that isn't as easy as it sounds. But it is worthwhile because the payoff for getting the big trends right can be enormous. The dominant themes of the last decade are consistent with what we expect from a strong dollar environment outside of recession: US outperforming International, Growth outperforming Value, Large Cap outperforming Small Cap, Developed Markets outperforming Developing Markets, Technology outperforming Everything, Equities and Bonds outperforming Commodities/Real Assets, Stocks outperforming Real estate.Those trends are a result of a (mostly) strong dollar environment with fairly steady growth. Growth has waxed and waned over the last decade but until recently it just oscillated around a 2% trend....Since the panic phase of the virus recession passed, the dollar has been weakening back to the bottom of the range that has prevailed since 2015....We look to momentum in markets to confirm the dollar trend so we are not all-in on a weak dollar outcome. There are still strong dollar trends in place in some areas as shifts like this aren't generally uniform. There are plenty of reasons, as our Jeff Snider is fond of pointing out, to believe this short-term downtrend will be just that - short-term. But a 9% drop in the space of four months cannot be ignored."

It Is Ironic That US "Tech Giants" Don't Actually Produce Anything -Rabobank/Zero Hedge
"Today is a Fed decision day. For the markets, the key question is 'What more can they realistically do at this stage?' Indicative that there is still more to do is the fact that the virus has not stopped raging across the US, and indeed much of the world...The Fed already took the step of announcing a day before their meeting finishes that seven of their nine emergency lending programs will be extended to the end of the year. The Fed today will be thinking about how to maintain as much consumption as possible going forwards and as much stock elevation as required....You will notice one thing missing above for the Fed to worry about: production. Which says a lot about where we stand today and why we stand there...Let other countries 'produce' stuff and we will just buy it, was the ruling economic philosophy in the States from 1945 to 2016, after all....There is another level on which 'the means of production' is relevant today - and that is because US tech giants are being called to testify to Congress against a backdrop of them becoming political footballs in an ever-more polarized society; something their many critics claim they help drive in various ways - have you seen the 'Antisocial media' T-shirts? In such a divided society - where 'cultural Marxism' and 'trained Marxist' are used as criticism and self-identification - it is ironic that most of these firms don't actually produce anything, and certainly not in the US: one lets you search for other things; most of the others have no content unless the users provide it or produce it (in which case, mostly from abroad again). There is no 'means of production' at all in that sense today. Yet clearly there is still vast power - and so an enormous ding-dong going on over who 'controls' them, and to what end."

The economy, not politics, should guide COVID-19 relief -Washington Examiner
"This upcoming COVID-19 fiscal relief package will likely be the last one Congress passes before the election, so it's important lawmakers get it right. The size and the shape of the package should not be pulled out of thin air or based on political wish lists, but rather designed to meet the needs of this crisis. While there is still a lot of uncertainty about how much more time and resources it will take to fight the virus and recession, lawmakers have a lot more economic data than they did in March to target those resources efficiently. Current projections are that the economic output gap due to the recession will be about $750 billion over the next six months. Looking out two years, the output gap could total $2 trillion - though the longer one looks out, the more uncertainty there is. Thus, the right starting point is to decide how much of that gap to fill in, over what time period, and how best to do so, rather than starting a political bidding war with lawmakers trying to outdo each other with how much they can spend. The next step is to determine the most pressing needs and most effective policies. One thing to consider is that every dollar wisely invested in mitigating the effects and spread of the pandemic, and finding a cure is potentially more effective than anything else would be....Here is what we should not do: We should not litter any package with political handouts that aren't targeted to helping the immediate situation....Fighting the pandemic and supporting those harmed by the resulting recession are the top priorities. But we also can't ignore that our national debt is set to reach 100% of the economy in a matter of moments."

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7.28.20 - The Message Behind Gold's Rally

Gold last traded at $1,952 an ounce. Silver at $24.52 an ounce.

NEWS SUMMARY: Precious metal prices traded mixed Tuesday, with gold rising above $1,950/oz. and silver trading near $24.50/oz. on safe-haven buying despite a firmer dollar. U.S. stocks fell as lawmakers debated the next coronavirus relief while traders pored over the latest corporate earnings.

Investors Set Aside Coronavirus Worries, Driving a 'Melt-Up' in Markets -Wall Street Journal
"Stocks, bonds and commodities are heading for their strongest simultaneous four-month rise on record, highlighting the breadth of the market recovery during the 2020 economic slowdown....Investors and analysts attribute the broad rise in financial markets to faith in government and central-bank stimulus programs, hopes for vaccine development and wagers that the coronavirus crisis will spell opportunity for a number of large but nimble, well-placed companies at the expense of others whose struggles are deepening. The broad advance is prompting many investors who had been skeptical to pare back their cautious wagers and join the rally, giving it further fuel....Some analysts see recent signs of a 'melt-up' in some market niches, particularly around technology, in which investors are buying assets in large part simply because they are rising. Traders are riding the momentum in everything from large technology stocks such as Apple Inc. to the precious metal silver. Such powerful rises are a concern for analysts who worry that the investments will suddenly fall in tandem if markets or the global economy face a fresh shock....'People are hopping on the train, and they're also looking to get anything else in their portfolio for when the day of reckoning comes,' said Christopher Stanton, chief investment officer of Sunrise Capital Partners. Mr. Stanton is betting against the dollar, expecting Federal Reserve stimulus programs to continue weakening the currency, boosting investments from stocks to commodities that are priced in dollars. He warned that uncertainty about government or central-bank policies could hit markets, pointing to November's presidential election as one possible spark for a reversal. Many investors fear presumptive Democratic nominee Joe Biden will raise corporate taxes if elected."

gold The Message Behind Gold's Rally: The World Economy Is in Trouble -Bloomberg/Yahoo Finance
"The virus has unleashed a torrent of forces that are conspiring to fuel relentless demand for the perceived safety from turmoil that gold provides. There's the fear of further government-ordered lockdowns; and politicians' decision to push through unprecedented stimulus packages; and central bankers' decision to print money faster than they ever have before to finance that spending; and the plunge in inflation-adjusted bond yields into negative territory in the U.S.; and the dollar's sudden decline against the euro and yen; and rising U.S.-China tensions. All these things, when taken together, have even triggered concern in some financial circles that stagflation - a rare combination of sluggish growth and rising inflation that erodes the value of fixed-income investments - could take hold across parts of the developed world....The main driver behind gold's latest rally 'has been real rates that continue to plummet and don't show signs of easing anytime soon,' Edward Moya, a senior market analyst at Oanda Corp., said by phone. Gold is also drawing investors 'concerned that stagflation will win out and will likely warrant even further accommodation from the Fed.'....Analysts have been predicting huge upside for gold for several months. In April, Bank of America Corp. raised its 18-month gold-price target to $3,000 an ounce. 'The global pandemic is providing a sustained boost to gold,' Francisco Blanch, BofA's head of commodities and derivatives research, said Friday, citing impacts including falling real rates, growing inequality and declining productivity. 'Moreover, as China's GDP quickly converges to U.S. levels helped by the widening gap in Covid-19 cases, a tectonic geopolitical shift could unfold, further supporting the case for our $3,000 target over the next 18 months.'"

More riots and lawlessness in cities across nation -Fox News
"Another night of rioting and lawlessness exploded in more than half a dozen U.S. cities Saturday night - with the mayhem including damage to federal buildings, local police precincts, and a fatal shooting in Austin, Texas. Similar protests and violent demonstrations have been seen across the country following the death of George Floyd, a Black man in Minnesota who died while in police custody. Floyd's death - as well as the police shooting death of Breonna Taylor in Louisville, Kentucky, and other Black men and women - sparked widespread protests and demonstrations in the U.S. and across the world, which still continue in some cities to this day. Here's a recap of some of the developments in a sampling of cities. Portland, Ore.: Courthouse fence breached - A huge crowd that included the Wall of Moms and the Wall of Vets turned out for yet another day and night of rioting and lawlessness in Portland, Ore., a city that has seen more than 50 consecutive days of such behavior....Seattle: Explosive blows hole in precinct wall - At one point during Saturday's daylong protests in Seattle, rioters threw an explosive device that created an eight-inch hole in a wall of the police department's East District, police Chief Carmen Best said, according to the Seattle Times....Austin, Texas: Fatal shooting - During a protest in the city, police said a man carrying a weapon approached a vehicle - but a person inside the vehicle fatally shot the man, the Austin American Statesman reported....Oakland, Calif.: Courthouse fire - Hundreds of protesters marched through downtown Oakland, smashing windows of the city's police headquarters and setting a fire inside the Alameda County courthouse, according to reports."

Airline trade union says air travel won't recover before 2024 -The Hill
"The trade union for the airline industry predicted Tuesday that air travel will not recover to pre-pandemic levels until 2024.The International Air Transport Association (IATA) is delaying its original forecast by a year, citing slow containment of the COVID-19 outbreak in the U.S. and developing countries....The group pointed to a sharp decrease in corporate travel and weak consumer confidence as reasoning for the slower recovery. IATA chief economist Brian Pearce told reporters in an online briefing that while airlines are seeing more travel since the lockdowns in April, the improvement is "barely visible," according to The Associated Press. June's air travel, measured in the distance traveled by all paying fliers, decreased 86.5 percent compared to last year, slightly better than May, which saw a drop of 91 percent compared to 2019....Planes reported filling 62.9 percent of capacity for domestic flights around the world, while international flights filled 38.9 percent of their seats."

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7.27.20 - Smart Money Loves Gold

Gold last traded at $1,930 an ounce. Silver at $24.39 an ounce.

NEWS SUMMARY: Precious metal prices rose sharply Monday, with gold touching all-time highs, as investors sought safe havens from a gaggle of economic uncertainties. U.S. stocks rose, led by major tech names, as investors braced for a week of corporate earnings and coronavirus stimulus negotiations.

The Smart Money Doesn't Like Stocks But Loves Gold -Bloomberg
"Gold is up 25% this year...Meanwhile, global stocks, as measured by the MSCI World index, have recovered almost all of the losses they suffered as the pandemic ushered the world economy into lockdown, and are within 5% of regaining their February highs. A look at where the smart money is going, though, suggests one of these rallies may prove unsustainable. In the first quarter, sovereign funds had reduced their exposure to equities to the lowest level since at least 2014, according to an annual survey published this week by Invesco Ltd. The investment management firm cited 'end of cycle concerns that led to decreasing strategic allocations' as the driving force for the diminishing appetite for stocks. That trend shows no signs of abating. More than a third of wealth funds plan to cut their equity holdings in the coming year, with 18% intending to trim by 5% or more. Contrast the mistrust of equities with a rising enthusiasm for gold. Its performance this year has been spectacular. Gold bugs applaud the precious metal as an insurance policy against financial fiddling by monetary authorities that will stoke runaway inflation one of these days. That interest has further to run. Some 18% of central banks plan to increase their gold holdings in the coming year, according to the Invesco report, while 23% of sovereign funds intend to boost their exposure....'It is only a matter of time' until gold reaches a record high, Citigroup Inc. analysts said in a report this week. Gold bugs can rejoice that the smart money of sovereign funds and central banks is with them. The cheerleaders for equities may want to think again."

free money Governments must beware the lure of free money -The Economist
"It is sometimes said that governments wasted the global financial crisis of 2007-09 by failing to rethink economic policy after the dust settled. Nobody will say the same about the covid-19 pandemic. It has led to a desperate scramble to enact policies that only a few months ago were either unimaginable or heretical. A profound shift is now taking place in economics as a result, of the sort that happens only once in a generation...The pandemic marks the start of a new era. Its overriding preoccupation will be exploiting the opportunities and containing the enormous risks that stem from a supersized level of state intervention in the economy and financial markets. This new epoch has four defining features. The first is the jaw-dropping scale of today's government borrowing, and the seemingly limitless potential for yet more....The second feature is the whirring of the printing presses. In America, Britain, the euro zone and Japan central banks have created new reserves of money worth some $3.7trn in 2020. Much of this has been used to buy government debt, meaning that central banks are tacitly financing the stimulus. The result is that long-term interest rates stay low even while public-debt issuance soars....The state's growing role as capital-allocator-in-chief is the third aspect of the new age. To see off a credit crunch, the Federal Reserve, acting with the Treasury, has waded into financial markets, buying up the bonds of AT&T, Apple and even Coca-Cola, and lending directly to everyone from bond dealers to non-profit hospitals....The final feature is the most important: low inflation. The absence of upward pressure on prices means there is no immediate need to slow the growth of central-bank balance-sheets or to raise short-term interest rates from their floor around zero...accommodative monetary policy now costs so little to service that it looks like free money. Don't fool yourself that the role of the state will magically return to normal once the pandemic passes and unemployment falls....The new era also presents grave risks. If inflation jumps unexpectedly the entire edifice of debt will shake, as central banks have to raise their policy rates and in turn pay out vast sums of interest on the new reserves that they have created to buy bonds....The stakes are high. Failure will mean the age of free money eventually comes at a staggering price."

U.S. Dollar's Strength Is Sagging as America's Economic Model Declines -Hatheway/Barrons
"Few issues in economics more befuddle and divide the profession than figuring out what determines exchange rates....I spent many hours and a lot of course work in graduate school exploring the mysteries of exchange rates, to the point of writing a dissertation that my supervising committee somehow accepted. I surely didn't break the currency code, but when I finished I was more than ready to admit that, when it came to exchange rate determination, I knew vastly more about what didn't work than what did....Which brings me to today's topic: Are the U.S. dollar's days numbered? The question arises because the dollar has slipped over the past month in the world's foreign exchange markets...The dollar is trading near two-year lows against the euro and has fallen some 7.5% against the European single currency since mid-March. Something appears to be going on, but what is it?...Clues for recent dollar depreciation answer reside in prospective relative GDP growth rates and in relative asset returns....Before long the dollar may also suffer from shifting return expectations, particularly in global equity markets. U.S. corporate profitability, which is largely to thank for the 10-year U.S. bull market, is now challenged. The share of profits in GDP - a good proxy for corporate profit margins - has been falling for several years. A Democratic clean sweep in November, which polls suggest looks increasingly likely, would result in higher corporate income taxes and a hit to after-tax corporate profits. Covid-19 related economic weakness would hurt company earnings as well. If the U.S. relinquishes global equity market leadership, the dollar is likely to sag as well....The days of dollar strength look numbered."

No More Blank Checks From Congress for Coronavirus -Sen. Johnson/Wall Street Journal
"A near-record 158.8 million Americans were employed in February, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics. Then the novel coronavirus brought parts of the economy to a screeching halt. As of June, 142.2 million people were employed, a reduction of 16.6 million, or about 10.5%. Recent economic forecasts have predicted a decline in gross domestic product of between 4.6% and 8% for 2020. The damage from Covid-19 has been significant, but not catastrophic. Congress authorized $2.9 trillion of Covid-19 relief, which represents 13.5% of 2019's U.S. GDP. No one knows exactly how much of the Covid relief has been spent or obligated, but 60% ($1.75 trillion) seems to be a consensus figure in Congress. Let that sink in. We've authorized enough spending to replace 13.5% of annual economic output, and more than $1 trillion of it hasn't yet been spent or obligated. So why is Congress rushing to pass at least $1 trillion more? For Speaker Nancy Pelosi and her fellow Democrats, $1 trillion isn't enough. The House has passed an additional $3 trillion in Covid-19 relief, which would bring the total to $5.9 trillion, 27.5% of GDP....Since the Small Business Administration has disclosed recipients of Paycheck Protection Program loans greater than $150,000, news reports have revealed that the PPP lacked basic controls that any future program and expenditures must contain. Loan forgiveness shouldn't be granted to organizations that have the ability to repay. There is no doubt the PPP was a lifeline to many organizations and their employees. But there's also no doubt many groups that received loans - and will almost certainly have those loans forgiven - didn't need them. As the largest single expenditure of the Cares Act, the PPP deserves more scrutiny....Doesn't it make more sense for Congress to evaluate what has been spent, determine what worked and what didn't, and then redirect the balance based on what Congress finds? We shouldn't authorize another dime until we do so."

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7.24.20 - Battered Dollar 'Hanging by a Thread'

Gold last traded at $1,899 an ounce. Silver at $23.02 an ounce.

NEWS SUMMARY: Precious metal prices extended gains, with gold topping $1,900/oz, on rising geopolitical and economic worries. U.S. stocks added to a sharp decline from the previous session, as tensions between the U.S. and China keep rising and tech shares struggled once again.

Gold price tops $1,900 on longest winning streak since 2011 -Financial Times
"Gold was closing in on a record high on Friday, climbing above $1,900 a troy ounce as geopolitical tensions kept the haven metal on its longest winning streak since 2011. The commodity, used by investors as a store of value in times of stress, has rallied strongly as other safe assets have become less attractive, strategists say. The US dollar has weakened in recent weeks as America's Covid-19 crisis deepens, while the inflation-adjusted yields available on benchmark government bonds have slumped well below zero. Gold rose almost $20 in afternoon trading on Friday to a high of nearly $1,906 an ounce, keeping it on course for a seventh straight weekly gain, as a deepening diplomatic row fed tensions between Washington and Beijing. The metal is now approaching its record intraday high of $1,921 set in September 2011, having risen about a quarter this year - making it one of the best-performing assets in 2020. 'Financial markets tend to move like a giant pendulum, and once it swings it is very hard to stop it. That's definitely the case in gold,' said Peter Grosskopf, chief executive of Sprott, a precious metals specialist with $12bn under management. 'The latest move is being driven by the Covid outbreaks we are seeing in the US, and the realization that the recovery is going to be longer and harder than many people were expecting a few weeks ago,' said Joe Foster, fund manager at VanEck in New York. 'The US dollar is also weak and silver has broken out, so that probably tells you some speculative money has come into the market.'"

Washington Battered U.S. dollar 'hanging by a thread' as coronavirus cases grow -Yahoo Finance
"A steady decline in the dollar has accelerated in recent weeks, as a resurgent coronavirus outbreak in the United States and improving economic prospects abroad sour investors on the currency. The buck is down 8% from its highs of the year against a basket of currencies and stands near its lowest level since 2018. Net bets against the dollar in futures markets are approaching their highest level in more than two years. 'The dollar is hanging by a thread,' said Mazen Issa, senior currency strategist at TD Securities in New York. 'At this point, the dollar-weakness mindset has become deeply entrenched.' A range of factors are driving the U.S. currency's decline....'Investors don't know what the U.S. is doing" regarding the coronavirus pandemic, said Richard Benson, co-chief investment officer at Millennium Global Investments in London. 'That has been a big drag on the U.S. dollar.'....Low U.S. yields have also raised the allure of investments such as gold, which normally struggles to compete with yield-bearing assets. Prices for the metal are up 23% for the year."

Millennials Flood Into Precious Metals: Is Gold The Next TSLA? -Zero Hedge
"As precious metals accelerated higher in the last few days, we joked (kinda) on Twitter that the surge in momentum would soon become a magnet for the new trading gurus manning their desks at home - whether in China or Chinatown - and send it to new all time highs. One day later, it's happening as Robinhood users flood into the gold and silver ETFs. For SLV, the number of RH users holding the ETF has surged from around 15,000 to 20,000 in the last few days.... making it the 16th most popular pick on Robinhood as of the past 24 hours....And in typical Robinhood fashion, every dip is being furiously bought. Does this spell disaster for the rally in precious metals? With momo chasers piling in at the margin? Well it didn't seem to hurt TSLA... And besides, there are plenty of fundamental drivers for re-allocation into precious metals (as opposed to the vapor underlying TSLA's acceleration), including the resurgence in global negative-yielding debt... The question is, will CNBC cheer the retail participation in gold and silver as loudly as they celebrate the millennials buying the most expensive stock market ever?"

Progressive Policies Keep Failing -Stossel/Reason
"I laughed when I saw The Washington Post headline: 'Minneapolis had progressive policies, but its economy still left black families behind.' The media are so clueless. Instead of 'but,' the headline should have said, 'therefore,' or 'so, obviously.' Of course, progressive policies failed! They almost always do. 'If you wanted a poster child for the progressive movement, it would be Minneapolis,' says Republican Minnesota Senate candidate Jason Lewis in my new video. 'This is the same city council that voted to abolish the police department.' The council, which has no Republicans, spends taxpayer money on most every progressive idea. They brag that they recycle most everything. They have a plan to stop climate change. They tell landlords to whom they must rent. They will force employers to pay every worker $15 an hour. They even tell supermarkets what cereal they must sell. Despite such policies, meant to improve life for minorities and the poor, the Minneapolis income gap between whites and blacks is the second highest in the country....Cam Gordon, a current Minneapolis councilman, tells me the city's economic 'disparities were caused by a long trail of historic racism.' He tweeted: 'Time to end capitalism as we know it.'....In the past 50 years, while progressives attacked profits, capitalism - the pursuit of profit - lifted more than a billion people out of extreme poverty....Sadly, today in America, the progressives are winning."

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7.23.20 - Insider Selling Soars Near Record Highs

Gold last traded at $1,882 an ounce. Silver at $22.76 an ounce.

NEWS SUMMARY: Gold prices reached toward fresh 9-year highs Thursday on safe haven buying and dollar weakness. Silver prices eased back on mild profit taking after hitting 7-year highs. U.S. stocks retreated on disappointing unemployment data and mixed reactions to the latest corporate earnings.

Silver Surges, Gold Nears Record in Flight to Havens -Bloomberg/Yahoo Finance
"Silver prices climbed to the highest in almost seven years and gold continued its march toward a record on expectations there'll be more stimulus to help the global economy recover from the coronavirus pandemic. Investors have flocked to the metals on surging demand for havens amid a resurgence in virus cases, slowing growth, negative real interest rates in the U.S., flaring political tensions and a weaker dollar. The vast amounts of stimulus unleashed by governments and central banks have also aided prices and, after the success of a European rescue package this week, the focus turns to negotiations on legislation to prop up the American economy. Silver jumped more than 8% on Wednesday - the biggest gain since March - and has been getting an added boost from supply concerns and optimism about a rebound in industrial demand. 'The closer gold gets to its record high the stronger the magnetic field will become and that could see it challenge that level before long,' said Ole Hansen, head of commodity strategy at Saxo Bank A/S. Silver should also continue its run as long as it has support from higher gold, as well as a weaker dollar and bets for more industrial demand, he said....Investors also weighed mounting China-U.S. tensions, with the Asian nation vowing to retaliate after the U.S. forced the closure of its Houston consulate...The fear of missing out is driving a flood of speculative money into gold, piling on top of January-June's heavy physical demand."

"Our Indicator Is Flashing A Warning Sign": Insider Selling Soars To Near Record Highs -Zero Hedge
"With the S&P now back to just a whisker away from all time highs, and a handful of tech stocks at never before seen levels...insiders have had enough and, confirming that valuations are in some cases even beyond dot com levels, have turned from rabid buyers into sellers with data from The Washington Service showing that nearly 1,000 corporate executives and officers have sold shares in their own companies this month, outpacing insider buyers by a ratio of 5-to-1. How big is this insider selling frenzy in context? According to Bloomberg, 'only twice in the past three decades has the sell-buy ratio been higher than now.'"

buyers

"A similar surge in selling in early 2020 and back in 2018 served as a handy indicator of imminent losses. 'Our indicator is now flashing a warning sign,' Moreland said. 'I'm not prepared to say everybody should sell everything and short the market because of the recent insider data. The way I'm using it is, I'm more comfortable selling some of my winners. We still don't trust the market's recent recovery.'....Amid the deluge of selling, some buying still remains, although that number has dropped to fewer than 200 corporate insiders who bought shares in July, compared with a full-month average of 1,160 during the first half of this year, according to the Washington Service data which also revealed that a total of $52.6 million of shares was sold last week while purchases reached a paltry $3.4 million."

U.S. Orders China to Close Houston Consulate -Wall Street Journal
"The U.S. ordered the abrupt closure of the Chinese Consulate in Houston, accusing China of extensive interference in domestic affairs and intellectual-property theft, an escalation of bilateral tensions that Beijing called outrageous and unprecedented. The State Department, in a statement on the closure, accused China of conducting 'massive illegal spying and influence operations throughout the United States against U.S. government officials and American citizens,' and said such activities have increased in recent years. The closure order, first made public by Beijing, coincided with Washington's unveiling on Tuesday of indictments against two hackers in China. They have been accused of targeting American firms involved in coronavirus research and stealing hundreds of millions of dollars in sensitive information from companies around the world while working on behalf of Beijing's main civilian intelligence agency...Footage aired by local television stations purportedly showed people burning documents on the consulate's premises. Washington's demand opened a new front in President Trump's efforts to pressure China in a duel between the world's two-largest economies over trade, technological and military competition, geopolitical influence and the coronavirus pandemic....Beijing has countered each time with heated criticism and retaliatory measures, and did so again following the closure order against its consulate. 'This is a political provocation unilaterally launched by the U.S.,' Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesman Wang Wenbin said Wednesday."

Covid-19 Vaccines With 'Minor Side Effects' Could Still Be Pretty Bad -WIRED
"On Monday, vaccine researchers from Oxford University and the pharmaceutical company AstraZeneca announced results from a 'Phase I/II trial,' suggesting their product might be able to generate immunity without causing serious harm. Similar, but smaller-scale results, were posted just last week for another candidate vaccine produced by the biotech firm Moderna, in collaboration with the US National Institutes of Health. As both these groups and others push ahead into the final phase of testing, it's vital that the public has a clear and balanced understanding of this work - one that cuts through all the marketing and hype. But we're not off to a good start. The evidence so far suggests that we're getting blinkered by these groups' PR, and so seduced by stories of their amazing speed that we're losing track of everything else. In particular, neither the mainstream media nor the medical press has given much attention to the two vaccines' potential downsides - in particular, their risk of nasty adverse effects, even if they're not life-threatening. This sort of puffery doesn't only help to build a false impression; it may also dry the tinder for the future spread of vaccine fearmongering....The first people to get vaccines are carefully picked to be the least likely to have a negative reaction....The press release for Monday's publication of results from the Oxford vaccine trials described an increased frequency of 'minor side effects' among participants...But moderate or severe harms - defined as being bad enough to interfere with daily life or needing medical care - were common too. Around one-third of people vaccinated with the Covid-19 vaccine without acetaminophen experienced moderate or severe chills, fatigue, headache, malaise, and/or feverishness. Close to 10 percent had a fever of at least 100.4 degrees, and just over one-fourth developed moderate or severe muscle aches. That's a lot, in a young and healthy group of people - and the acetaminophen didn't help much for most of those problems....There is already a high level of misinformation and distrust about fast-tracked Covid-19 vaccines in the American community. This week, a new preprint from Kin On Kwok and colleagues found that even a sizable proportion of nurses in Hong Kong would be hesitant to take one. We may have a vaccine soon, say the authors of that paper, but 'communities are not ready to accept it.' It won't help to overcome this skepticism if notable evidence of harms keeps getting pushed off to the side. It's much better to be straight up about what it's really like to take one of these vaccines. Why would anyone trust the experts otherwise?"

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7.22.20 - Gold, Silver Prices Surge to Highest Levels Since 2011

Gold last traded at $1,865 an ounce. Silver at $23.14 an ounce.

NEWS SUMMARY: Precious metal prices rose near 9-year highs Wednesday on rising uncertainty and a weak dollar. U.S. stocks traded mostly flat as traders grappled with renewed U.S.-China tensions.

Fed Nominees Shelton, Waller Confirmed by Senate Committee -Wall Street Journal
"The candidacy of Judy Shelton, an economic adviser to Mr. Trump's 2016 presidential campaign, for the Fed's Board of Governors was approved by the Senate Banking Committee in a party-line vote despite objections from Democrats. Her next and final stop will be a confirmation vote on the Senate floor, where Republicans hold a 53-47 majority. Senators on the panel also voted 18-7 to advance the nomination of St. Louis Fed director of research Christopher Waller to fill the remaining vacancy on the central bank's seven-member board in Washington....Ms. Shelton has been a longtime proponent of a return to the gold standard, which would limit the Fed's ability to influence inflation and employment, and concedes that her views are outside the mainstream of economics....The nominations could take on extra significance if Mr. Trump wins reelection this year because he could tap a sitting governor to succeed Fed Chairman Jerome Powell when his four-year term expires in early 2022....'I spent a lot of time reading a lot of Dr. Shelton's works,' senator John Kennedy of Louisiana told reporters Monday. 'My criteria for judging any Federal Reserve nominee is: Does the nominee have the intellectual heft to do the job? And No. 2, will they be independent? And she satisfied both of those criteria.'"

TTAM Gold, silver prices surge to highest levels in years -Fox Business
"Spot gold rose $24.50 to $1,840.40 an ounce, its highest level since Sept. 9, 2011, while silver gained $1.34, hitting a more than 6-year high of $21.46 an ounce. At the same time, the U.S. dollar index slid 0.54 percent and neared its lowest point in two years....Precious metals have had a banner year in 2020 as the lockdowns ordered to slow the spread of COVID-19 led to drastic action from policymakers, devaluing currencies and prompting investors to turn to precious metals as a safer store of value....James O'Rourke, commodities economist at the London-based research firm Capital Economics, expects real yields to 'remain low' and interest rates to stay at current levels as the 10-year Treasury note will be 'firmly anchored by loose monetary policy.' He sees gold ending 2020 at $1,900 an ounce, and remaining 'elevated over the next couple of years.' While gold prices have garnered all of the attention lately, silver has been the big winner since precious metals bottomed in March. Back then, the gold/silver ratio was near 122 - it has since fallen to 85.74. 'Silver has been a misunderstood component of the reopening because the industrial part that held it back for months is now in its back, propelling it forward,' George Gero, managing director at RBC Global Wealth ManagementGe said, noting he sees the metal's price climbing to as high as $22 by year-end and the gold/silver ratio falling to around 80." NOTE: Learn more about the wisdom of owning precious metals in Swiss America's free report The Timeless Truth About Gold and Silver

People are more likely to contract COVID-19 at home, study finds -Reuters
"South Korean epidemiologists have found that people were more likely to contract the new coronavirus from members of their own households than from contacts outside the home. A study published in the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) on July 16 looked in detail at 5,706 'index patients' who had tested positive for the coronavirus and more than 59,000 people who came into contact with them. The findings showed just two out of 100 infected people had caught the virus from non-household contacts, while one in 10 had contracted the disease from their own families. By age group, the infection rate within the household was higher when the first confirmed cases were teenagers or people in their 60s and 70s. 'This is probably because these age groups are more likely to be in close contact with family members as the group is in more need of protection or support,' Jeong Eun-kyeong, director of the Korea Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (KCDC) and one of the authors of the study, told a briefing. Children aged nine and under were least likely to be the index patient, said Dr. Choe Young-june, a Hallym University College of Medicine assistant professor who co-led the work...Children with COVID-19 were also more likely to be asymptomatic than adults, which made it harder to identify index cases within that group....Data for the study was collected between Jan. 20 and March 27, when the new coronavirus was spreading exponentially and as daily infections in South Korea reached their peak."

Building Work-Life Boundaries in the WFH Era -Harvard Business Review
"Remote work used to be an option for those employees who could convince their manager that it was a good idea. All that changed with the arrival of Covid-19. For many, the transition to remote work has been remarkably smooth, aided by technologies such as fast internet, smartphones, and video- and audio-based conferencing. Yet the technologies that have made remote work possible have also created a more permeable boundary between work and family roles. In many cases, employees must attend to email, Slack, and video meetings alongside family members who are also working or learning from home. Compounding this change is the fact that working from home was mandated seemingly overnight for many knowledge workers, rather than a thought-out plan that employees could adequately prepare for or opt into at their discretion. All of this makes it more difficult to psychologically detach and recover from work, and creates a need to more actively manage boundaries between work and family....Back when you worked at an office, maybe your family dropped by to visit you or you regularly took work home. Or you may have tried to separate home and family, taking work-related calls at work and family-related calls at home. These preferences - known as integration and segmentation - are key factors in the ways we navigate our daily boundaries. Integrators, as the first example above demonstrates, tend to blur work-family boundaries; segmentors, on the other hand, strive to preserve clear ones....Today, segmentors' strong desire to keep their office and family lives separate is almost impossible to satisfy while working from home. For integrators, the sudden and fully immersive blurring of work and home boundaries can be difficult if they've never felt the need to separate work and home in the past but might have to now. Here are ways both segmentors and integrators - and their managers - need to reconsider both time and space. Putting boundaries around your time is important regardless of whether you are an integrator or a segmentor. This might come easier to segmentors, who crave clear boundaries. Integrators might have to work harder at this skill by creating more schedules and routines....Whether you are an integrator or a segmentor, you need to select your work-from-home space carefully - but where you set up shop may be different. Integrators may be comfortable setting up their home office somewhere central, like the kitchen or dining room, where they can keep an eye on what is happening with family members. However, segmentors should choose a room with a door, if possible. They should also pay attention to what home-related items are in their office and consider moving them to another room, so that family members don't need to come in and look for items while they are working....By understanding how everyone works best from home, leaders can turn this unexpected crisis into opportunity as we develop new and better ways of working in the future."

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7.21.20 - US Companies Lose Hope for Quick Rebound

Gold last traded at $1,844 an ounce. Silver at $21.65 an ounce.

NEWS SUMMARY: Precious metal prices shot up Tuesday on safe haven buying, fresh Fed stimulus talk and a weaker dollar. U.S. stocks traded mixed on upbeat earnings as investor looked for clues on further U.S. fiscal stimulus.

It's 'Only a Matter of Time' Before Gold Hits a Record -Citi/Yahoo Finance
"Bullish factors building in the gold market are set to see prices take out the record set in 2011, according to Citigroup Inc. The metal is benefiting from loose monetary policy, low real yields, record inflows into exchange-traded funds and increased asset allocation, the bank's analysts including Ed Morse wrote in a report. Gold is expected to climb to an all-time high in the next six-to-nine months, and there's a 30% probability it'll top $2,000 an ounce in the next three-to-five months. 'Nominal gold prices have already posted fresh records in every other G-10 and major emerging market currency this year,' the analysts said. 'It is only a matter of time for fresh' highs in U.S. dollars, they said, adding that demand for a store of wealth should also lift silver, which touched a three-year high in New York on Monday. Citigroup is among a long line of market watchers in predicting bullion will either test or top its long-standing record as the resurgence of coronavirus cases in several parts of the world point to a prolonged and uneven global economic recovery. Spot gold has surged 19% this year to the highest since 2011 as the pandemic drove investors to havens, while easier monetary policy and other measures to shore up economies also supported demand....Citi sees silver rising to $25 in the next six to 12 months, with a potential for $30 based on the bank's bull case, additionally supported by a recovery in global economic activity."

spending U.S. Companies Lose Hope for Quick Rebound From Covid-19 -Wall Street Journal
"The fierce resurgence of Covid-19 cases and related business shutdowns are dashing hopes of a quick recovery, prompting businesses from airlines to restaurant chains to again shift their strategies and staffing or ramp up previous plans to do so. They are turning furloughs into permanent layoffs, de-emphasizing their core businesses and downsizing production indefinitely. Delta Air Lines Inc. curtailed plans to add more summer flights and said it doesn't expect business flying to recover to pre-pandemic levels. Chipotle Mexican Grill Inc. is adding staff and changing operations to accommodate more to-go business. Vox Media, the publisher of New York magazine and several news websites, said it would lay off 6% of its workforce as the company confronts a prolonged drought for its lucrative events business. 'We cannot defy gravity and continue with the business model we had before the pandemic,' Pret A Manger Chief Executive Pano Christou said on Friday as the sandwich chain reported an 87% drop in U.S. sales and announced plans to close nearly 20 stores. Executives who were bracing for a monthslong disruption are now thinking in terms of years. Their job has changed from riding it out to reinventing. Roles once thought core are now an extravagance. Strategies set in the spring are obsolete. 'It's going to be a different game,' said Bill George, former CEO of medical-device company Medtronic PLC and a senior fellow at Harvard Business School....'It's becoming increasingly clear that the second half of the year will not rebound anywhere near our pre-Covid forecasts,' Vox Media Chief Executive Jim Bankoff wrote in a memo to staff. 'Furthermore, as cases rise tragically across the country and many of our elected leaders avoid decisive action, we have very limited visibility into the timing or strength of a recovery.'"

Silver Hits $20 For The First Time Since 2016... And Why It Will Go Much Higher -Zero Hedge
"For the first time since September 2016, Silver futures just broke above $20...Just a few short months after dropping to the lowest since 2009. But, as tsi-blog.com explains, silver is set to continue outperforming over the next year. Gold is more money-like and silver is more commodity-like...In particular, gold, being more money-like, tends to do better than silver when inflation expectations are falling (deflation fear is rising) and economic confidence is on the decline. Anyone armed with this knowledge would not have been surprised that the collapse in economic confidence and the surge in deflation fear that occurred during February-March of this year was accompanied by a veritable moon-shot in the gold/silver ratio. Nor would they have been surprised that the subsequent rebounds in economic confidence and inflation expectations have been accompanied by strength in silver relative to gold, leading to a pullback in the gold/silver ratio....We are intermediate-term bullish on silver relative to gold. We don't have a specific target in mind, but...it isn't a stretch to forecast that at some point over the next three years the gold/silver ratio will trade in the 60s. Be aware that before silver commences a big up-move in dollar terms and relative to gold there could be another deflation scare."

Coronavirus in Arizona: Stick to data and stop media-induced panic -Rep. Biggs/Washington Examiner
"Drs. Anthony Fauci and Deborah Birx continue to offer up interesting contradictions on COVID-19. Birx has told us that a rise in positive test results for the coronavirus indicates a spike in deaths to come. Fauci, on the other hand, says that the mortality rate is irrelevant. They're both wrong, and Arizona is demonstrating as much amid the current outbreak. By far, the largest spike in positive tests right now is in the 21-to-44 age group, which accounts for more than half of all cases and more than half of all new cases. If the rise in positive tests indicates a coming spike in deaths, one would expect within seven to 14 days a rise in the fatality rate among that age group. Fortunately, that isn't happening, according to data from the Arizona Department of Health Services. In fact, the death rate among that group is 0.22% now, with the rapidly rising number of nonlethal cases. Speaking of which, Fauci has said the death rate from COVID-19 is unimportant. Again, the case of Arizona suggests otherwise. The low and declining death rate mirrors a broader situation in which, although there are far more positive tests for the coronavirus, there is no reason to panic....But are the hospitals being overrun? Phoenix Mayor Kate Gallego recently commented that Arizona hospitals are triaging patients, so short of facilities that they were sending people home to die. Fortunately, that was simply a politician's falsehood that was quickly checked and refuted by local journalists. Typically, Arizona's intensive care unit usage is at around 80% to 90%. That currently stands at about 88% to 90% for the past three weeks, and only about 60% of the ICU cases are COVID-19-related, although not all of those have confirmed COVID-19 diagnoses....The sad part of all of this is that some people, a lot of them in the media, prefer fear and loathing instead of having the humility to look at the data, accept that there will be risks, and determine how we can reasonably minimize them....The evidence so far suggests that children have virtually no chance of contracting COVID-19 or dying from it and that they are not superspreaders of the virus....Let's start telling the unvarnished truth and let people make decisions on how to live their lives."

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7.20.20 - Debt Fatigue is Destroying America

Gold last traded at $1,816 an ounce. Silver at $20.25 an ounce.

NEWS SUMMARY: Precious metal prices rose Monday on rising risk aversion and a weak dollar. U.S. stocks traded mixed as traders weighed the prospect of a potential coronavirus vaccine and more U.S. fiscal stimulus.

The COVID Economy In Suspended Animation -Global Macro-Monitor
"Summary: The U.S. economy is not real and in a current state of 'suspended animation.' The COVID rescue package has introduced significant distortions into the economy. The 'Corona Capitalists,' some very well capitalized and liquid corporations, have accounted for a large portion of the loan volume in the Paycheck Protection Program (PPP). Almost 30 percent of renters and homeowners failed to make all or some of their payments in July. The buildup of rental and mortgage payment arrears is a very complicated and potentially menacing problem, threatening the very heart of capitalism, itself. Personal income is up almost 7 percent year-on-year, though wages and salaries are down 6 percent, the result of a 70 percent increase in government transfer payments. Personal savings skyrocketed from 7.9 percent of disposal personal income (DPI) in January to 32.2 percent in April, providing some of the jet fuel for a rocketing stock market. The Fed's digital printing press has financed most, if not all of the increase in the transfers and savings. Markets remain detached from economic reality....It's stunning to us that the markets continue to hold up, choosing to take the blue pill of bliss and ignorance, believing the Wizard of Oz, dressed up as the Federal Reserve, will always be there to bail them out no matter their level of stupidity. Then again, there really are no free markets left after the Fed has effectively nationalized just about anything that moves."

gold A Monetary System as Good as Gold -Salter/AIER
"John Maynard Keynes, the progenitor of modern macroeconomics, famously dismissed the gold standard as a 'barbarous relic.' Commodity monies have been held in low regard by economists ever since. The disdain has spread to noneconomists in policy making circles, as well. Dr. Judy Shelton is a rare exception. She is a well-known defender of the gold standard. For this reason, her nomination to the Federal Reserve's Board of Governors has been somewhat controversial....The low regard economists and policymakers have for the gold standard is unfounded. Sadly, many of these supposed 'experts' are almost completely innocent of monetary history...In practice, the gold standard provides a better anchor for inflation expectations without an obvious cost in terms of lower output or higher unemployment....If the gold standard were really so inferior to fiat money managed by modern central banks, you would expect it to show up in the historical time series. As it turns out, the evidence suggests the opposite....Rather than an antiquated holdover retarding economic performance, the gold standard was a crucial component of the impressive economic growth that occurred during the late 19th and early 20th centuries....The inescapable conclusion is that gold is no 'barbarous relic,' as Keynes maintained. If anything, it is a civilizing force...As my dissertation adviser, Lawrence White, puts it: The gold standard is still the gold standard among monetary systems."

Debt fatigue, not coronavirus, is destroying America -The Hill
"The United States is experiencing its worst crisis since World War II. No, it is not the coronavirus pandemic. New York and other states are demonstrating how to bend the coronavirus infection rate down, and other states will soon follow. The crisis that is destroying America is debt fatigue....Over the past half century governments at all levels have experienced debt fatigue. The federal government has again increased debt to levels exceeding our national income. Much of this debt was incurred in response to the 2008 financial crisis and the coronavirus pandemic. But the fundamental cause of this debt crisis is not these economic shocks, but rather debt fatigue. For decades, debt has been increasing as a share of national income. Although the federal debt crisis is widely acknowledged, less well understood is the state and local government debt crisis. Over the past five decades, most state governments have allowed debt to increase to more than 10 percent of personal income, a debt level that exposes them to risk of default. Most of this increase in debt at the state and local level in recent years is in unfunded liabilities in pension and other post-employment benefit plans....The Federal Reserve has now allowed the states to designate municipal governments and public enterprises to access emergency lending programs directly. This massive bailout of our state and local governments is not only bankrupting the federal government, it is undermining the future of the nation. If we can't rely on elected officials to pursue responsible fiscal policies, how can we solve this debt crisis? Countries that have been successful in solving their debt debacles, like Switzerland, have done so by imposing 'debt brake' rules. When debt levels exceed a debt tolerance level, the debt brake rules mandate a reduction in the rate of growth in government spending until debt is reduced below that debt tolerance level....If our country is to retain even a modicum of a federalist system, we must restore fiscal autonomy and responsibility at each level of government....At the federal level, a debt brake could be incorporated in a balanced budget amendment to the U.S. Constitution. If Congress fails to propose such an amendment, citizens could enact the amendment through an Article V Amendment Convention."

Drive-thru job fair helping unemployed workers find new jobs -MSN/Fox 29
"A staffing company in West Palm Beach is making it easier for job seekers to find employment amid the coronavirus. Express Employment Professionals developed an innovative hiring event to get people back to work - a drive-thru job fair. 'We really wanted to try and think outside of the box and how we can attract new applicants,' said Cameron Smith of Express Employment Professionals....The process is simple yet effective. 'We're doing an interview kind of quick, a screening interview, and then we are basically trying to figure out what direction to head and have them go onto our website and fill out an application, send their resume and get them a place,' said Smith. The company works with a variety of local businesses - everything from warehouse jobs, administration work and information technology."

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7.17.20 - What if Gold Goes to $5,000 or $10,000?

Gold last traded at $1,800 an ounce. Silver at $19.57 an ounce.

NEWS SUMMARY: Precious metal prices rose Friday on strong demand and a weak dollar. U.S. stocks traded mixed as a sharp decline in Netflix shares pressured the rest of the market.

What if gold does go to $5,000 or $10,000? -Kitco
"With gold hitting nine-year highs this month - and staying above $1,800 - readers are asking for guidance on what to do if gold not only reaches new nominal highs, but blows by $2,000 and keeps going. What if it really does go to $5,000 an ounce, $10,000"¦ or higher? And what if silver hits $100 and keeps rising?....I think we'd be seeing 1970s-style stagflation, and there would be great political and social unrest. I think it's unlikely someone with the guts Paul Volker had would step in to set things right. And I think there's zero chance today's politicians would give such a person the power to do so. I don't think $10,000 gold would be the end of the story. If it does rise that high, I think the US would fall into a true hyperinflationary death spiral. At that point, the price of pretty much everything would be about to take off. At the same time, the actual value of many things would go into decline as people focus their spending on survival. In short, the real endgame would be a major financial and social reset - after a collapse. I hope I'm wrong. Or, if I'm right about what $10,000 gold implies, I hope we never get there. Just reaching Bank of America's now-famous $3,000 call would be more than enough to make fortunes for gold bugs like me. No need to wish for far greater misfortune befalling the rest of the world. But frankly, with the Republicans joining the Democrats in pulling out the control rods that keep the US economy from overheating and melting down"¦ well, I don't want to predict a global collapse , but I think it would be foolish not to make contingency plans for the possibility."

debt ceiling The Covid Fiscal Crisis Is About Debt and Taxes -Sternberg/Wall Street Journal
"The only thing worse than how we'd pay for pandemic relief is what will happen when, inevitably, we don't. Alas, it's time to talk about what the coronavirus pandemic means for your tax bill...Policy makers and voters alike are waking up to the fact that those trillions of dollars and euros and pounds our governments spent were real money. The Congressional Budget Office (CBO) last week pegged the federal budget deficit at $2.7 trillion for the October through June period....The conventional explanation for why this should alarm us is that taxes inevitably must rise to repay those debts. Such fearmongering has the virtue of being true. Expect politicians on the left to seize on high pandemic deficits and debt loads as an opportunity to overhaul taxation, and not for the better. A President Biden will welcome the excuse to reverse the 2017 Trump tax reform while sidestepping the boost the tax cuts gave to economic growth - 'because the deficit.'....An underappreciated aspect of our growing mountain of government debt is the political pressure it places on central banks, not least the Federal Reserve, to suppress interest rates for the purpose of making debt service affordable....The U.S. thus finds itself stuck in a debt trap, alongside the rest of the developed world. Economists at the Bank for International Settlements coined that term to describe a situation in which prolonged low interest rates induce the accumulation of so much unproductive government and private debt that to raise rates would risk a catastrophic financial-system or fiscal crisis...The path of least resistance instead becomes to keep rates low forever, in turn encouraging more debt....The result is a brittle economy that churns out too many houses, financial assets and overindebted retailers, and too few productive job opportunities - and creates one financial crisis after another. That's a fate worse than any tax hike. The worst part is we'll probably get both the taxes and the financial crisis before this pandemic-debt story is done."

The world's wealthy push for higher taxes, but few volunteer -Worstall/Washington Examiner
"The patriotic millionaires are at it again, insisting that they should be made - forced, I tell ya'! - to pay more in taxes to help pay for recovery from the coronavirus. No, it's not good economics, but more than that, it's not even what they themselves believe. It's entirely possible to pay more taxes any time you want, and there's no real evidence that the rich have been volunteering. The bad economics argument is that right now really, really isn't the time for tax increases. The Federal Reserve is creating money down in the basement as fast as it can - that's what quantitative easing is - and Congress is throwing it out the door in unemployment checks, pandemic schemes, and sheer free cash. The justification is to stop the recession from turning into a depression, and raising taxes to cover all of this would be exactly and precisely the wrong thing to do. Near every strand of economic thinking tells us this, too. But there's more to it than that. Economists insist that we shouldn't listen to what people say. If we want to know their true desires, we should instead watch what they do....Standard economics also tells us that wealth taxation is a really bad idea, as is taxing the income from investments. Perhaps that's an argument for the wonks requiring specialized knowledge of the subject, so how about a simple argument? When those millionaires and billionaires voluntarily pay higher taxes, they can bring us their thank you letters - yes you do get one, I checked - and then we'll talk."

"Probably By Year End" - Alasdair Macleod Warns "The Dollar Is On Its Way To Zero" -Zero Hedge
"Finance and economic expert Alasdair Macleod says the gold market is 'extremely dangerous as far as the bullion banks, swaps and trading desks' that, at some point soon, are going to have to deliver physical gold they do not have....Macleod thinks failure to deliver gold is coming soon where the contract will be settled in cash and not physical metal. How many times can the gold market do this? Macleod says, 'I think it will be the end of the futures market because nobody would trust it as a means of delivering gold. I mean it would have demonstrably failed. So, why would you play with it again? Of course, the failure of COMEX contracts is a very, very serious issue.' What happens to the price of gold? Macleod says, 'The price is already on its way to infinity or, put more accurately, the dollar is on its way to zero...Probably by the end of the year because we've got another thing happening in the background, and that is we have a banking crisis developing. This is the natural consequence of the contraction of bank credit. There is the effect of tariffs on top of that that turn a normal cycle of bank credit contraction into a 1929 to 1932 horror show. . . . If you have a banking collapse, then those assets values will just go down in the pan. The next thing, of course, bond yields start rising because of the inflationary implications of a financial collapse. At that stage, government financing becomes impossible because governments are in effect bankrupt.' Macleod says stocks, the dollar and bonds all go down together and explains, 'That is the lesson of history. Everything just goes away. If you destroy the currency, you destroy all the financial assets that are priced in it.'"

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7.16.20 - Hedge Fund Sees Gold Topping $3,000/oz.

Gold last traded at $1,800 an ounce. Silver at $19.57 an ounce.

NEWS SUMMARY: Precious metal prices eased back Thursday on normal short-term profit-taking. U.S. stocks fell, led by tech shares, as investors digested the latest corporate earnings reports and mixed U.S. economic data.

Doomsday Hedge Fund Sees Gold Topping $3,000 an Ounce -Bloomberg
"A hedge fund manager who returned 47% this year by betting on gold and Treasuries says the next decade is going to be marked by inflation that central banks are powerless to control. Diego Parrilla, who heads the $450 million Quadriga Igneo fund, says unprecedented monetary stimulus is fueling asset bubbles and corporate debt addiction - rendering interest-rate hikes impossible without an economic crash. In the ensuing market mania, the manager whose portfolio is loaded up with cross-asset hedges says gold could rise to $3,000 to $5,000 an ounce in the next three to five years, up from the current price of $1,800. 'What you're going to see in the next decade is this desperate effort, which is already very obvious, where banks and government just print money and borrow, and bail everyone out, whatever it takes, just to prevent the entire system from collapsing,' Parrilla said in an interview from Madrid. While traditional funds are tasked with generating steadily positive returns over time, Parrilla's fund is predisposed toward hedging the next big crash while generating capital over time. Managers with a tail-risk bias position for extreme market events, typically bucking mainstream views on Wall Street."

covid Mis-Reporting of Virus Deaths From Alarmist Media -Real Clear Markets
"'Virus Deaths Climb as Cases Hit New High' was the original title of a recent front-page Wall Street Journal feature, later changed online to 'Deaths Begin Trending Higher.' Either title portends important news, but the only evidence is gibberish: 'The average daily death toll in the U.S. rose to 599 in the seven days through July 8, up from 510 deaths a day as of July 4, according to a Wall Street Journal analysis of data from Johns Hopkins University.' July 4 is obviously one of the 'seven days through July 8' so the alleged 'rise' makes no sense. A correct apples-to-apples comparison would have said, 'The average daily death toll in the U.S. fell to 599 in the seven days through July 8, down from 786 in the seven days through July 1.' Those averages (599 and 786) are from the Wall Street Journal's own graph of 'Daily reported Covid-19 deaths.' But revealing the actual 35% drop in deaths over back-to-back seven-day periods would require rewriting the headline. In a remarkable understatement, the article admits 'deaths haven't surged in the same way the infections have.' In fact, nationwide deaths have fallen according to all of their own figures. The graph accompanying the article, reproduced here, shows a 7-day rolling average of daily cases and deaths expressed as an index number, where April 1=100. The death index jumped from 100 on April 1 to a peak of 284 on April 18. But it then fell steadily to 76 by June 23 - which was nearly two months after many states reopened for business from April 24 to May 4. There was then a brief uptick in the death index above 100 from June 25 to July 1, which appears consistent with a multi-week lag between infection and death following the late May Memorial Day activities and mass protests. Since July 4, however, the 7-day average of deaths has again fallen well below 100 - even as the number of positive tests keeps moving in the opposite direction....As the authors reluctantly concede, 'soaring case counts are partly attributable to expanded testing that is detecting asymptomatic or less severe cases, often among younger people.' Quite right. But that makes it deceitful to keep equating more positive tests with 'more infections' - as they do eight times....At the national level, the week ending July 4 was the 11th week in a row the CDC reported declining deaths from COVID-19, flu and pneumonia."

COVID-19 Proved the U.S. Is Mired in Corruption -Bonner/Rogue Economics
"Today, let's continue exploring Lord Byron's formula for the cycle of empires. From freedom to glory... And when that fails... to wealth, vice, corruption... and finally, barbarism...You'll recall our corollary, too: that you can tell where you are in the cycle by watching the monuments...At a glance, we seem to be in the corruption stage. The vice stage, we reckon, commenced with the introduction of the fake, non-gold-backed dollar in 1971. It took a while to find the gas valve. But once the feds realized what they could do with an almost-unlimited amount of money, well"¦ the sky was the limit. The federal government never ran a real surplus again. And then, with its no-limit credit card, it could squander $21 trillion on the War on Poverty"¦ over $1 trillion on the War on Drugs"¦ $7 trillion on the War on Terror"¦ and, so far, $2.3 trillion (the CARES Act) on fighting COVID-19 and the Lockdown Recession....Each time, it took more hot air to levitate the bubble; the latest whoosh cost $3 trillion in the Fed's new money"¦ plus a $4 trillion deficit from the Trump team. And more hot air is on the way. Both Democrats and Republicans are reaching for the controls"¦ one with a $3 trillion bill already in Congress; the other still working out the details on one that, says the president, could be even 'larger.'....Corruption takes many forms. For example, there is a whole army of Deep State careerists, posing as 'experts' and 'advisors,' making their fortunes by pretending to have useful knowledge....The Fed, meanwhile, has its own 'No Rich, Mismanaged Corporation Left Behind' program. So far, it's helped such big names as Berkshire Hathaway Energy, McDonald's, Southwest Airlines, CVS, AT&T, Boeing, Coca-Cola, ExxonMobil, Ford, Walmart, UnitedHealth Group, Philip Morris International, and many, many more borrow at lower rates....Corruption? Check! Barbarism lies dead ahead."

U.S. June Consumer Prices Rose Sharply -Wall Street Journal
"U.S. consumer prices rose sharply in June while states were broadening efforts to reopen, with costs snapping back for products and services that were hit hard by the coronavirus pandemic. The consumer-price index - which measures what Americans pay for everyday items including groceries, clothing and shelter - rose 0.6% in June, the Labor Department said Tuesday. The index had fallen in each of the previous three months, with particularly sharp declines during the earlier part of the pandemic in March and April. 'June represented the beginning of a return to normal for prices, as most of the categories that had been depressed by the COVID lockdowns rebounded once the economy started to recover in earnest,' said Stephen Stanley, chief economist at Amherst Pierpont, in a note to clients, referring to the illness caused by the coronavirus....Gasoline prices, which rose 12.3% last month, also drove the gains and accounted for more than half of the monthly increase in overall prices, according to the Labor Department...Prices for dining out also rose in June, by 0.5%, the biggest monthly gain so far in 2020."

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7.15.20 - The Case for Reopening Schools -WSJ

Gold last traded at $1,814 an ounce. Silver at $19.76 an ounce.

NEW SUMMARY: Precious metal prices rose Wednesday supported by a weaker dollar and geopolitical tensions. U.S. stocks traded mixed despite a potential coronavirus vaccine and a record quarter for Goldman Sachs.

Silver to become the new gold -Credit Suisse/FX Street
"Strategists at Credit Suisse have noted a great silver performance lately and expect the white metal to look for the $26.22 resistance on a break above $21.14. What's more, Gold/Silver ratio shows the latter is in line to extend its outperformance. 'Silver continues to push its way higher and there are seen clear similarities between price action now and that of gold last year. However, only above 19.65/21.14 would see a multi-year base confirmed, with next resistance then seen at $26.22. The Gold/Silver ratio is also back pressuring price and retracement support, beneath which would suggest silver can extend its current outperformance. At present though, this is still a correction within the longer-term gold outperformance trend.'"

fed Federal Reserve's $3 trillion virus rescue inflates market bubbles -Reuters/Yahoo Finance
"The Federal Reserve's $3 trillion bid to stave off an economic crisis in the wake of the coronavirus outbreak is fueling excesses across U.S. capital markets. The U.S. central bank has pledged unlimited financial asset purchases to sustain market liquidity, increasing its balance sheet from $4.2 trillion in February to $7 trillion today....'COVID-19 is now inversely related to the markets. The worse that COVID-19 gets, the better the markets do because the Fed will bring in stimulus. That is what has been driving markets,' said Andrew Brenner, head of international fixed income at NatAlliance. Here are some of the market bubbles that investors are attributing to the Federal Reserve's intervention. STOCK MARKET BONANZA - Near-zero interest rates and credit support for large swathes of Corporate America have driven yield-hungry investors back to the equity market....IPO FRENZY - Stock market euphoria has spilled over into initial public offerings (IPOs) and other stock sales to investors....DEBT BINGE - The Fed's bond-buying programs encouraged companies to tap credit markets and made the second quarter the busiest ever for debt issuance....Some $1.2 trillion of investment-grade paper was sold in the first half of the year, the highest issuance volume recorded by the Securities Industry."

The Case for Reopening Schools -Editors/Wall Street Journal
"Everything else about the coronavirus has become politicized in America, so why not a return to school as well? That's the depressing state of play as President Trump pushes schools to reopen while Democrats heed teachers unions that demand more federal money and even then may not return. The losers, as ever, would be the children. The evidence - scientific, health and economic - argues overwhelmingly for schools to open in the fall...According to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, 30 children under age 15 have died from Covid-19. In a typical year 190 children die of the flu, 436 from suicide, 625 from homicide, and 4,114 from unintentional deaths such as drowning....Parents and teachers understandably worry that children might spread the virus. But a recent retrospective study of schools in Northern France, from February before lockdowns, found that "despite three introductions of the virus into three primary schools, there appears to have been no further transmission of the virus to other pupils or teaching and non-teaching staff of the schools."....These risks can be managed... Space desks six feet apart, stagger class periods, make kids wear face coverings when possible, keep them in the same cohort, and have them eat, play and learn outdoors as much as possible. Teachers can also wear face shields, and schools can use plastic barriers in higher-grade level classrooms to separate them from kids....Research outfit NWEA has projected that 'students are likely to return in fall 2020 with approximately 63-68% of the learning gains in reading relative to a typical school year and with 37-50% of the learning gains in math.' Another half-year or year of lost instruction will be impossible to make up. Achievement gaps will surely increase....Millions of parents can't return to work if their children can't attend school. Opening the schools is essential to the well-being of students, and teachers and administrators have a duty to make it happen."

Looming evictions may soon make 28 million homeless, expert says -CNBC
"Emily Benfer is a leading expert on evictions. She is the chair of the American Bar Association's Task Force Committee on Eviction and co-creator of the COVID-19 Housing Policy Scorecard with the Eviction Lab at Princeton University. CNBC spoke with Benfer about the coming eviction crisis and what can be done to turn it around. CNBC: How does the eviction crisis brought on by the pandemic compare with the 2008 housing crisis? EB: We have never seen this extent of eviction in such a truncated amount of time in our history. We can expect this to increase dramatically in the coming weeks and months...We're looking at 20 million to 28 million people in this moment, between now and September, facing eviction. CNBC: You study the intersection of housing and health. What will all these evictions mean for people's health during the pandemic? EB: Eviction negatively impacts the trajectory of an individual's life, and it can do that in a permanent way. Studies have demonstrated that eviction causes increased mortality and causes respiratory distress, which in the Covid-19 pandemic can put people in even greater peril. It results in depression, suicides and other poor health outcomes. And the primary response to Covid-19 has been to shelter in place. If there's an increase in homelessness [one economist estimates homelessness could rise by more than 40% this year], that could spread the virus....CNBC: What can be done to make this eviction crisis less devastating? EB: As an immediate measure, we need a nationwide uniform moratorium on eviction, and it has to be coupled with financial assistance to ensure that the renter can stay housed without shifting the debt burden onto the property owner. The owners that are the most likely to be affected by the eviction crisis right now are those who have small properties and don't have the financial cushion to make ends meet over a period of months when they're not receiving that rent. Once that's in place, we really need to start addressing the root causes of the eviction crisis and the lack of affordable housing."

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7.14.20 - Round Two Of The Jobs Apocalypse

Gold last traded at $1,813 an ounce. Silver at $19.55 an ounce.

NEWS SUMMARY: Precious metal prices extended gains Tuesday on safe-haven buying and dollar weakness. U.S. stocks traded mixed as bank earnings rose but tech stocks stumbled amid speculation of overvaluation.

Gold gains above $1,800 per ounce as infection cases mount -CNBC
"Gold prices rose above the key $1,800 level on Monday, underpinned by surging coronavirus cases globally and concerns that they may slow down recovering economies. U.S.-China trade tensions and the record number of COVID-19 cases being reported on a daily basis are the underlying themes supporting the gold market, Kitco Metals senior analyst Jim Wyckoff said. 'Of course, there's going to be normal downside corrections, but the trend remains up.' Global coronavirus infections passed 13 million on Monday, according to a Reuters tally, marking another milestone in the spread of the disease which has killed more than half a million people in seven months. Driving inflows into the safe-haven asset further, China announced 'corresponding sanctions' against the United States on Monday after Washington penalized senior Chinese officials over the treatment of minority Uighur Muslims in Xinjiang....The yellow metal has risen over 19% so far this year due to massive stimulus from governments and central banks across the globe to revive coronavirus-hit economies...Silver climbed 3.1% to $19.25 per ounce after hitting $19.31, the highest since Sept. 5."

jobs The Second Jobs Apocalypse -Axios
"This week, United Airlines warned 36,000 U.S. employees their jobs were at risk, Walgreens cut more than 4,000 jobs, it was reported Wells Fargo is preparing thousands of terminations this year, and Levi's axed 700 jobs due to falling sales. We have entered round two of the jobs apocalypse. Those announcements followed similar ones from the Hilton, Hyatt, Marriott and Choice hotels, which all have announced thousands of job cuts, and the bankruptcies of more major U.S. companies like 24 Hour Fitness, Brooks Brothers and Chuck E. Cheese in recent days...The initial jobs apocalypse was due to the mandated and temporary closures of businesses across the country in an attempt to contain the coronavirus pandemic. Part two is the fallout from the decline in consumption that resulted and will likely include the wreckage from wide-ranging business closures and a reckoning for white collar jobs, experts say....'The pickup in COVID is going to increase uncertainty and make people cut back on spending, but ... even without that pickup in the pandemic, the economic weakness will lead to layoffs and failures from businesses that are only being indirectly hurt' by the pandemic, says Edelberg, who was previously chief economist at the Congressional Budget Office....More than 1 million Americans filed for traditional unemployment benefits last week for the 16th week in a row, the Department of Labor reported Thursday. But perhaps more distressing has been the increase in claims filed for the Pandemic Unemployment Assistance program. First-time PUA claims rose above 1 million for the first time since the week of May 23 last week, while the number of people approved for and receiving PUA benefits increased to 14.4 million, as of June 20, the last week for which data are available."

Silver Soars, Outpacing Gains in S&P 500 and Gold -Wall Street Journal
"Silver prices climbed to their highest level in 10 months Monday, lifted by factory re-openings and soaring investor demand for precious metals. Silver metal rose 2.3% to $19.50 a troy ounce in New York, putting them on course for their highest settlement since September 2019. Silver prices have soared 66% since their nadir in mid-March, outstripping gold, the S&P 500 and an ICE BofA index of U.S. government bonds. Investors have snapped up precious metals in recent months, encouraged by the extraordinary steps central banks and governments have taken to shore up economic growth during the coronavirus pandemic. The drop in short-term interest rates and the Federal Reserve's purchases of a range of bonds have lowered yields in a swath of debt markets, reducing the opportunity cost of owning precious metals, which pay no income. Silver prices have also benefited from the reopening of factories in the U.S., China and elsewhere. Silver has widespread industrial applications in making solar panels, medical equipment and consumer electronics, among other goods. As a result, prices typically rise when economic growth accelerates, a key difference between silver and gold. 'You're flying on two engines, which are commercial demand and investor demand,' said Michael Widmer, a commodities strategist at Bank of America. 'That's driving silver prices higher.'....'It's the more volatile brother of gold,' Ms. Boele said. 'The market is much thinner so when you get a move it's generally big.' Giving prices an extra lift, the pandemic has disrupted mines in Latin America, the world's main silver-producing region."

China Renews Push for Increased Global Role for the Yuan -Bloomberg/Yahoo Finance
"Faced with the prospect of restricted access to U.S. dollars, China's answer is to get more people to use its own currency instead. The increasing spillover of Sino-American tensions into the financial sphere has ignited a fresh push by China to promote the global use of the yuan. A growing number of government officials and influential market watchers have in recent weeks urged greater efforts on the endeavor, which gained renewed significance after China's new Hong Kong security law triggered the threat of retaliation from Washington. While such drastic action is far from being implemented by the U.S. - and could potentially do major damage to American interests and the entire global financial system - the risks alone have raised alarm bells. With almost a trillion dollars in offshore bonds and loans and $1.1 trillion in state-owned bank liabilities, access to the greenback is vital for Chinese companies and lenders. 'Yuan internationalization morphed from a desirable to an indispensable thing for Beijing,' said Ding Shuang, chief economist for greater China and north Asia at Standard Chartered Plc. 'China needs to find a replacement for the dollar amid the political uncertainty, otherwise the nation will see financial risks.'....Chinese regulators are building the China International Payment System to settle transactions outside the dollar-based platforms where the U.S. holds sway. Hong Kong, which supplies around half of the world's offshore yuan liquidity, is also aiming to become a more prominent yuan trading center."

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7.13.20 - $2,000 Gold is Now Even More Likely -Goldman

Gold last traded at $1,806 an ounce. Silver at $19.50 an ounce.

NEWS SUMMARY: Precious metal prices rose Monday on safe-haven buying and a weaker dollar. U.S. stocks rose as investors looked past record numbers in coronavirus cases from the weekend amid vaccine hopes and lower fatality rates.

Gold at $2,000 Is Now Even More Likely, Goldman Says. -Barrons
"An 'uneven recovery' lies ahead for commodities, but Goldman Sachs analysts are more confident than ever that gold will hit $2,000 an ounce. A scenario in which the U.S. is hit by a second wave of coronavirus cases, while China - the world's largest retail buyer - recovers strongly is 'ideal for gold,' the investment bank's commodities research team said in a note. The team said it now has 'even greater conviction' in its bullish 12-month target for the precious metal. Gold futures settled at a 9-year high of $1,820.60 per ounce on Wednesday....'Go long copper, silver and steel and stay long gold,' was their advice for investors...Silver stands to benefit from ongoing demand among investors for safe haven assets, as well as the Chinese industrial recovery, they said."

chaz The Brief And Strange History of CHOP (AKA CHAZ) -Counter Punch
"The end has come for CHOP - or CHAZ. At first the six-block area just east of downtown Seattle was called CHAZ. The area was occupied by protesters on June 8th after it was reluctantly ceded to them by Seattle Mayor Jennie Durkan and the police. That was the day that the Seattle Police Department vacated and locked up its East Precinct building on 12th Avenue. When the police left, the occupiers painted 'People' over the 'Police' in the sign, 'Seattle Police Department, East Precinct.' Then they declared the surrounding area the Capitol Hill Autonomous Zone, soon referred to simply as CHAZ. Whatever exactly it was, it had a name. Then some black community leaders suggested it be called Capitol Hill Organize Protest. Hence, CHOP, although CHAZ was still being used....The next day June 9th one of the protesters posted on a blog a list of thirty demands. That's a lot of demands. Soon four more would be added. For a nation used to the brevity of text messages and tweets even reading them was demanding. Among the demands foremost were the defunding or possibly the abolition of the Seattle Police Department and even the court system, the release of all protesters who had been arrested. then things followed like free health care, free college, free housing - I'll stop there. The shopping list of demand is really only germane to this essay as an indication of the confusion that was to follow....Seattle Times columnist Danny Westneat dropped by CHOP on the 23rd, the day after the last of the three shootings. Westneat wrote: 'We can police ourselves!' a man was still insisting in one of the CHOP's intersections on Tuesday when I stopped by. 'The hell we can,' a woman responded under her breath. Whether the perpetrators of the shootings on Saturday and Sunday were gang members or rightwing militia members is unknown....The end of CHOP seemed in sight. On Monday June 22nd, Seattle Mayor Jennie Durkan said, 'It's time for people to go home.' To finally help CHOP go gentle into that good night, the mayor called for help from leaders of the black community in Seattle. Early the next morning June 23rd, another man was shot and wounded near the northeast corner of Cal Anderson Park....Regarding all the chaos, the violence and deaths Kshama Sawant said the violence was due to capitalism. Therefore, she and the protesters at CHOP bore no responsibility. It's true that Seattle shows some of the most egregious features of capitalism per Marx. It is the city of Jeff Bezos' global colossus Amazon and it is also a city where a full-time employee of the US Postal Service lives in a tent under a freeway ramp because she can no longer afford the lease on her apartment. But Sawant cannot blame capitalism for the naivete of many in CHOP who were oblivious to the possibility that criminal gangs and rightwing militias might exploit their social experiment with fatal consequences, nor can she blame capitalism for the attempted rape of the deaf woman by one of her confederates....On July 1st, Seattle Police in riot gear cleared CHOP with the help of the Bellevue Police. At 4:58 am Mayor Durkan issued an order to clear the area. At 5 am the police entered CHOP and ordered everyone to leave within eight minutes or they would be arrested. They arrested at least 32 people."

Covid-19 Is Bankrupting American Companies at a Relentless Pace -Bloomberg
"Retailers, airlines, restaurants. But also sports leagues, a cannabis company and an archdiocese plagued by sex-abuse allegations. These are some of the more than 110 companies that declared bankruptcy in the U.S. this year and blamed Covid-19 in part for their demise. Many were in deep financial trouble even before governors ordered non-essential businesses shut to help contain the spread of the virus. Most will reorganize and emerge from court smaller and less-indebted. The hardest hit, however, are selling off assets and closing for good. They include plenty of big, iconic names. Hertz and J.C. Penney and now Brooks Brothers, too. The vast bulk, though, are small and medium-sized businesses scattered across the country. Their downfall might not normally garner much attention, but it does underscore the full extent of the damage Covid-19 has inflicted on the economy. The list compiled for this story is based on court records, statements or interviews in which company executives explicitly linked the virus to their filing. It is only a snapshot of the thousands of corporate entities that have landed in bankruptcy court since the pandemic took hold in March."

The Press Is Already Trying To Whip Up A New Pandemic Panic -Issues & Insights
"Oh, no! With the planet still unlocking and some parts still tightly buttoned down, and with the world economy plummeting, 'China Researchers Discover New Swine Flu with Pandemic Potential,' blares CNN. 'Scientists Say New Strain of Swine Flu Virus Is Spreading to Humans in China,' shrieks the New York Times. Say it ain't so! Okay, it ain't so. Not in any meaningful way. The media should go back to 'murder hornets,' or find another asteroid with a chance in a zillion of hitting Earth....First, while the Times says the virus 'is spreading silently in workers on pig farms in China,' that means pigs-to-humans and that's been going on for so time. 'This is not a new new virus; it's been very common in pigs since 2016,' tweeted Carl Bergstrom, a professor of biology at the University of Washington. 'There's no evidence that G4 is circulating in humans, despite five years of extensive exposure. That's the key context to keep in mind.' Okay, but it's a swine flu !!! Um, yes, pigs appear to play a role in most strains of flu, along with birds. Specifically, the massive swine farms of China are 'mixing bowls' to produce new flu strains....If G4 followed in the footsteps of its 'ancestor,' H1N1 (and the Times even admits that humans infected with G4 are showing no illness), and ended up actually saving a lot of lives, the WHO could (and of course would) declare it a pandemic. And given that the world seems to have decided that quarantining healthy people and destroying economies is a proper way of trying to reduce pandemic viral deaths, we could see a repeat of the horrors we're still experiencing. But that word 'pandemic' will set off alarms everywhere, as indeed G4 is already doing. At a Tuesday Senate hearing the ever-reliable National Institutes of Allergies and Infectious Diseases Director Anthony Fauci said G4 was not an 'immediate threat but something we need to keep our eye on just the way that we did in 2009 with the emergence of the swine flu.' Inevitably some flu virus will be antigenically different enough and widespread enough to qualify as a 'pandemic.' If we allow ourselves to forget how much damage we let the coronavirus cause, prepare for a sequel of what we're going through now. And gosh, like 'The Godfather II,' it may be even more powerful than the original."

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7.10.20 - Is America Heading For Civil War?

Gold last traded at $1,801 an ounce. Silver at $19.06 an ounce.

NEWS SUMMARY: Precious metal prices rose for the fifth consecutive week Friday on safe-haven buying and dollar weakness. U.S. stocks drifted lower, despite upbeat CV-19 treatment news, as investors worried about how record high pandemic infections might impact the economy.

Miserable Economic Outlook Could Yield Record Gold Prices -Wall Street Journal
"Gold prices ticked past $1,800 an ounce this week, and are now not far from the all-time highs reached in 2011, in the bleak aftermath of the financial crisis. New records could be ahead. Since the financial crisis, the movement of gold prices has been a near-mirror image of movements in the yield on 10-year Treasury inflation-protected securities, which this week touched a seven-year low of minus 0.78%. The ratio between the two assets' price moves has varied, but the relationship hasn't broken meaningfully during the past decade....Even with the current substantial fiscal support, the recovery in economic data seems to be leveling off, some Fed policy makers have noted. And that is before even considering what might happen in financial markets if would-be vaccine producers run into difficulties....Who is buying all this gold? Inflows into gold exchange-traded funds in the first half were the largest ever, and largely from North America. Flows into gold from institutional investors in developed markets have predominated....It is hard to see gold falling much, and it isn't unreasonable to believe it will reach new highs in the months ahead."

guns Is America Heading For Civil War? -Smith/Alt-Market
"In last week's article I discussed the issue of American 'balkanization' and the rapid migration of conservatives and moderates from large population centers and states that are becoming militant in their progressive ideology...Uprooting and moving to an entirely new place is not an easy thing to do, especially in the middle of a pandemic...That's how bad the situation has become - Rational and reasonable people are willing to leave behind their old life and risk it all to keep a margin of freedom. In my view it is clear that the political left has gone so far off the rails into its own cultism that there is no coming back. There can be no reconciliation between the two sides, so we must separate, or we must fight. I advocate for separation first for a number of reasons: First and foremost, conservatives are the primary producers within American culture. If we leave the leftists to their own devices there is a chance they will simply implode in on themselves and eat each other because they have no idea how to fill the production void. The recent developments in the defunct CHAZ/CHOP autonomous zone are a perfect example....Third, if the leftists decide they don't like that we have separated and are thriving on our own, and they attempt to antagonize or attack us where we live...I fully realize that the third outcome is the most likely...Why? Because collectivists and narcissists are never satisfied....I am often asked these days about my view of the 2020 election and how it will turn out....I am not convinced there will even be an election in November. With pandemic lockdowns surely returning as infections spike once again, the US economy will be in ruins by winter. Voting in a traditional fashion will be difficult or restricted in some states. And, mail-in or digital ballots will not be accepted by most conservatives because of their history of being used to rig election outcomes. Look at it this way: If Trump 'wins', or delays the election, the left will riot and a civil war will be triggered. Conservatives will have to deal with the violence of the left while also dealing with the potential for martial law (which we cannot tolerate or support either). If Biden 'wins', it will be perceived by many conservatives who still think elections matter as a stolen presidency engineered through fraudulent ballot practices....The truth is, in 2020-2021 we stand at a massive nexus point in human history. We are spiraling into a decade and a fight that will decide the fate liberty for the next century or more. On one side stands the global elites and the useful idiots on the hard left...On the other side stands the people that just want to be left alone; the free minds, the people that don't need or desire to have power over anybody. If humanity is to have a future at all, the second group must continue to exist and prosper." [image: Courtesy Alt-Market]

Our Cash-Free Future Is Getting Closer -New York Times
"The pandemic is propelling a shift toward a cashless society in ways that no other single event has. Experts say that's not necessarily a good thing....Cash was already being edged out in many countries as urban consumers paid increasingly with apps and cards for even the smallest purchases. But the coronavirus is accelerating a shift toward a cashless future, raising new calculations for merchants and enriching the digital payments industry. Fears over transmission of the disease have compelled consumers to rethink how they shop and pay. Retailers and restaurants are favoring clicks over cash to reduce exposure for employees....Cash is certainly not dead. Before the pandemic, bills and coins were used for 80 percent of the transactions in Europe, and there are few signs that the pandemic is about to wipe it out. Yet for a growing number of people sensitized by Covid-19 quarantines, cash is a fading routine....Propelling the trend is a surge in online shopping as homebound consumers turn to digital tools for basic items. In the United States, 40 million customers went online for groceries in April....There is no medical evidence that cash transmits the virus. Nonetheless, 'perceptions that cash could spread pathogens may change payment behavior by users and firms,' the Bank for International Settlements said....Among those hoping to profit from the discomfort is Tappit, a British company that provides data gathering and cashless solutions such as wristbands and apps...Its sales pitch during the pandemic to promote 'No more dirty cash,' has experienced a surge in interest by sporting arenas, hotels and restaurants seeking to revive business quickly after lockdowns, said Jason Thomas, the chief executive....The authorities that manage the world's currencies say the dangers of going fully cashless are rife....Consumer groups warn that vulnerable people risk being marginalized....'Cash is not going to disappear,' said Mr. Jorgensen. 'But it will continue to decline, and Covid is accelerating that trend.'"

U.S. town creates local currency to boost coronavirus relief -Reuters
"Tucked away under lock and key in a former railroad depot turned small-town museum in the U.S. state of Washington, a wooden printing press cranked back to life to mint currency after nearly 90 dormant years. The end product: $25 wooden bills bearing the town's name - Tenino - with the words 'COVID Relief' superimposed on the image of a bat and the Latin phrase 'Habemus autem sub potestate' (We have it under control) printed in cursive. With the coronavirus pandemic plunging the United States into a recession, decimating small businesses and causing job losses across the country, some local governments are looking for innovative ways to help residents weather the storm....Tenino, a town of less than 2,000 people located about 60 miles (95km) southwest of Seattle, started printing the local banknotes in April, five weeks into Washington state's lockdown. Anyone with a documented loss of income as a result of the pandemic is eligible for up to $300 a month of the local currency....Businesses up and down the town's quaint Main Street accept the wooden note for everything except alcohol, tobacco, cannabis and lottery tickets. Tenino's city government backs the local currency, which merchants can exchange for U.S. dollars at city hall at a 1:1 rate....The tiny town founded around a sandstone quarry achieved national prominence in 1931 when civic leaders printed a wooden local currency to restore consumer confidence after the town's bank failed during the Great Depression....In April the city council approved the proposal to issue up to $10,000 in local scrip. So far, 13 residents have successfully applied for the funds and some $2,500 worth of wooden bills have been issued, with donations upping the total funds available to $16,000."

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7.9.20 - Gold Leaps Above $1,800

Gold last traded at $1,806 an ounce. Silver at $18.99 an ounce.

NEWS SUMMARY: Precious metal prices held near 9-year highs Thursday on rising economic uncertainty. U.S. stocks fell amid renewed concerns over the coronavirus and its impact on the economy.

Gold leaps above $1,800 for the first time since 2011 -Business Insider
"Gold spot prices broke above $1,800 per ounce on Tuesday afternoon for the first time since 2011, bolstered by record inflows and widespread risk-off attitudes. The precious metal continued trading above that level Wednesday morning. Safe havens are enjoying their time in the sun as the stock market's run-up slows. Spiking coronavirus case counts have fueled new concerns of a second plunge for risk asset prices. Federal Reserve officials warn the virus' resurgence could freeze an economic recovery, and the Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development recently referred to the pandemic's labor market damage as 'far worse' than during the financial crisis. The wave of gloomy news has pushed investors back to gold at a blinding pace. Year-to-date inflows for exchange-traded funds tracking the metal reached 655.6 tons on Wednesday, Bloomberg reported, surpassing the full-year increase seen in 2009....Some analysts think gold has plenty of room to run. Goldman Sachs raised its 12-month price target for the popular hedge on June 19 to $2,000 per ounce, expecting gold to reach a record high amid lasting virus damage. With interest rates set to remain close to zero for years to come and the US dollar facing significant pressure, the metal's rally shows no signs of stopping, the bank's analysts said."

crisis The U.S. Is On a Downward Spiral -Bonner/Rogue Economics
"Freedom to glory"¦ and when that fails, to wealth, vice, corruption"¦ and finally, barbarism. That was how the 19th-century English poet, Lord Byron, described the cycle of empires....You can tell where you are in the cycle by checking the monuments. They go up in the glory stage"¦ they come down as you get close to barbarism....Our rough guess is that the 'freedom' stage came to an end for America at the beginning of the 20th century....Being a great nation seems to chaff against being a good one. A world power needs to throw its weight around. And for that, it needs the heft of unhedged support from compliant people. And it needs institutions that set up the government as master of them, not as servant. These institutional changes came in a rush in 1913. Changes to the Constitution created a powerful central bank - the Federal Reserve - along with federal income tax and the direct election of U.S. senators....The glory stage was next. But it was short-lived. It probably peaked out in World War II. The U.S. won in both theaters - against Germany and against Japan - leaving it with undisputed control of the Pacific and the Atlantic....As the glory failed, the pursuit of wealth became paramount. For the first three decades after World War II, American industries turned out some of the best products in the world - the best cars"¦ the best houses"¦ the best movies....But then, vice was already sneaking into the Empire in the form of fake money. The post-1971 dollar no longer had any connection to the gold or silver that the Constitution seemed to require. First, stocks fell. Next, stagflation took hold, with a slumping economy and, by 1979, double-digit inflation....Manufacturing centers, such as Detroit, Michigan and Gary, Indiana, fell hard as new centers of money and power - Manhattan and Washington, D.C. - rose up. Wall Street flourished. By 1999, the dot-coms were all the rage. Stocks had gotten so high that it took 44 ounces of gold to buy all the Dow stocks....It now stands at only 14 ounces of gold"¦ a two-thirds loss over 20 years. And the wealth of the 90% of the population that sells its time by the hour, the week, or the month has fallen along with the real value of stocks...It would take the typical working stiff two whole weeks of work to buy an ounce of gold"¦.Wealth peaked out 20 years ago"¦All that is left are corruption and barbarism."

New Coronavirus Surges Slow Economic Recovery -Wall Street Journal
"The nation's fledgling economic recovery is losing momentum, as a new wave of coronavirus infections causes businesses to scale back or reshutter in several big states and consumers to retreat anew. Restaurant seating rates have fallen of late in Florida, California, Arizona and Texas. Foot traffic to businesses has ebbed in some states since late June. Google searches for 'file for unemployment' in Arizona and Florida are rising. The new economic disruptions are concentrated in the three most populous states - California, Texas and Florida - and Arizona, all of which have seen a rise in infections in recent weeks. Together, those states make up about 30% of all U.S. economic output, according to Moody's Analytics. State and city leaders have imposed new restrictions on businesses to prevent further spread, though many consumers had already voluntarily stopped going out, according to foot-traffic data....The shape of the recovery will be jagged rather than a V signifying a sharp drop in activity followed by a similarly sharp rebound. Moody's now projects U.S. output to grow at an annual rate of 17% in the third quarter, far less than what is needed to get the economy back to its pre-pandemic state and below the company's prior estimate of 20%. 'While it's only begun to bear out over the past week, there are some early signs that the recovery may be losing steam,' said Matt Sigelman, CEO of Burning Glass Technologies, a labor-market data analytics software firm....Individuals' choice to stay home to avoid the virus was a much larger driver of the economic collapse during the pandemic than government-mandated restrictions, according to research from the University of Chicago's Becker Friedman Institute."

How Businesses Have Successfully Pivoted During the Pandemic -Harvard Business Review
"The nearly instantaneous economic recession triggered by the Covid-19 shutdown has wreaked havoc on businesses large and small. Our very way of life is also said to be threatened....Accordingly, the recipe for survival is supposed to be a thorough transformation of the entire company - or else a bankruptcy filing. The reality of how companies are dealing with the crisis and preparing for the recovery tells a very different story, one of pivoting to business models conducive to short-term survival along with long-term resilience and growth. Pivoting is a lateral move that creates enough value for the customer and the firm to share. Consider Spotify, the global leader in music streaming. In principle, this type of platform has all the ingredients for success in the lockdown economy....One pivot Spotify made in response was to offer original content, in the form of podcasts. The platform saw artists and users upload more than 150,000 podcasts in just one month, and it has signed exclusive podcast deals with celebrities and started to curate playlists....Let's examine the world of restaurants. They have been battered by the lockdown, with many owners pondering whether to close for good...Eat-in, take-out, delivery, and catering are just the tip of the iceberg. One pivot would be to offer a flat rate for a set number of meals per week or per month, with limited menu choices. Restaurants could increase their margins as they learned how to manage captive demand....Not all pivots result in good business performance. Three conditions are necessary for such lateral moves to work. First, a pivot must align the firm with one or more of the long-term trends created or intensified by the pandemic, including remote work, shorter supply chains, social distancing, consumer introspection, and enhanced use of technology....Second, a pivot must be a lateral extension of the firm's existing capabilities, cementing - not undermining - its strategic intent...Third, pivots must offer a sustainable path to profitability, one that preserves and enhances brand value in the minds of consumers. The economic crisis triggered by the pandemic does not necessarily spell the end of entire industries or companies. It does weed out business models that fail to pivot toward the new reality."

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7.8.20 - A Mob's Monumental Failure

Gold last traded at $1,818 an ounce. Silver at $19.13 an ounce.

NEWS SUMMARY: Precious metal prices rose to fresh 9-year highs Wednesday on safe-haven buying and dollar weakness. U.S. stocks traded mostly lower as investors weighed the latest, troubling U.S. coronavirus data and its impact on the economic recovery.

Gold at $1,800: 'There's little to stop the gold-up trajectory' -Bloomberg Intelligence/Kitco
"Gold is heading to $1,900 an ounce, and little can stop the precious metal from reaching its all-time high in U.S. dollars, according to the latest Bloomberg Intelligence's commodity outlook. 'It's logical to expect gold to outperform most assets in an environment of unparalleled central-bank easing, and we foresee the precious metal maintaining the upper hand in most scenarios. There's little to stop the gold-up, copper-down trajectories, in place well before the coronavirus struck,' wrote Bloomberg Intelligence senior commodity strategist Mike McGlone. Slow economic recovery is going to put pressure on commodities, except for gold, which will head to its record high of $1,900 an ounce, McGlone pointed out. 'Depression-like global conditions should press the BCOM below the 2016 trough and gold above its all-time high, about $1,900 an ounce,' he said....Gold has been trading above its new base level of $1,700 an ounce since mid-April. And the longer it can stay above that level the more prepared the precious metal will be to head to higher levels. 'Every day that passes above this level builds a firmer base for the metal to make the next move in its stair-step rally,' McGlone wrote. In the meantime, a V-shaped recovery is looking more and more unlikely, which is boosting the case for $1,900 gold."

statues A Mob's Monumental Failure to Understand -Wall Street Journal
"My elegant old hometown of Bristol, England, made world headlines when it kicked off the statue-bashing craze that swept many Western cities. Amid the uproar of argument, the central consideration remains overlooked: No country or culture's historical record is spotless. The vital question is whether, at each stage of evolution, the balance of good over bad was sufficiently decisive to build a civilization that advances humanity generally....The statue toppled on June 7 depicted Edward Colston (1636-1721), Bristol's slave-trading philanthropist. That may seem an easy moral win for iconoclasts. By the same criterion, however, one should also destroy copies of the Magna Carta for guaranteeing the rights and property of English barons against royal encroachment while they owned entire villages, including the people in them. Yet the pact King John signed (reluctantly) in 1215 launched the long march toward parliamentary democracy and the rule of law...Some cultures learn from their wrongs and painstakingly evolve toward enlightenment....Statues like Colston's deserve to endure because they celebrate the right kind of historical process, one that consistently delivers a present broadly better than the past....The mobs don't seem to understand how hard it is to get to this point, or how the monuments embody an arc of achievement. In Russia or China, when citizens look back on past monuments, they generally see symbols of disruption and tyranny like Stalin or Mao or more-benign figures who failed to establish enduring institutions. Any historical character in the West whose statue is under threat doesn't fall into those categories. Even Confederate leaders in the U.S. advanced civilization by losing. Whether it be Colston, Cecil Rhodes, Churchill or Jefferson, each overtopped his flaws with sufficient idealism or altruism to make our present better - not only for us in the West but for everyone who can aspire to replicate our standards."

The stock market is poised for a 40% drop, warns economist -Marketwatch
"'I think we've got a second leg down and that's very much reminiscent of what happened in the 1930s where people appreciate the depth of this recession and the disruption and how long it's going to take to recover.' That's A. Gary Shilling, longtime economist and president of A. Gary Shilling & Co., again delivering a gloomy take on what's next in a recent CNBC interview. 'Stocks are [behaving] very much like that rebound in 1929 where there is absolute conviction that the virus will be under control and that massive monetary and fiscal stimuli will reinvigorate the economy,' he said, adding that the market could drop as much as 40% over the next year....Shilling laid out his prediction in more detail earlier this year, explaining in a Bloomberg News op-ed that while many economists are looking for a V-shaped, or quick, rebound to deliver a sharp recovery in the second half of the year, he remains much more skeptical. 'This pandemic is likely to be the most disruptive financial and social event since World War II with equally long-lasting consequences,' Shilling wrote, citing the stark unemployment numbers at the time. 'Many will no doubt restrain spending in future years to rebuild savings, especially since the crisis caught them at a time of high debts and short financial reserves.'"

The impending retail apocalypse -Axios
"Because of the coronavirus and people's buying habits moving online, retail stores are closing everywhere - often for good. Malls are going belly up. Familiar names like J.C. Penney, Neiman Marcus and J. Crew have filed for bankruptcy. Increasingly, Americans' shopping choices will boil down to a handful of internet Everything Stores and survival-of-the-fittest national chains. A research report from UBS predicts that 100,000 brick-and-mortar U.S. retail stores will close by 2025, in a trend that started before the pandemic and has accelerated amid coronavirus-related shutdowns. Indoor malls - which were turning into ghost towns even before the pandemic - are being converted into apartment complexes....A relatively new retail model - buy online, pick up in-store - is gaining traction....The retail sector lost about 1.2 million jobs between March and June, according to Bureau of Labor Statistics figures released last week. Many COVID-19 store closures that were supposed to be temporary will wind up being permanent. Among household names that have announced they're shuttering some stores for good: Nordstrom, Bath & Body Works, Gap, and Zara....Budget retailers Dollar General, Dollar Tree and Five Below are bucking the trend - they plan to open hundreds of stores."

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7.7.20 - CV-19 Not About Red vs. Blue

Gold last traded at $1,809 an ounce. Silver at $18.66 an ounce.

NEWS SUMMARY: Precious metal prices rose Tuesday on safe-haven buying despite a firmer dollar. U.S. stocks traded mixed as investors digested jobs data and tried to determine how bumpy the pandemic recovery might be.

Gold Markets Continue to Look Strong -FX Empire
"Gold markets went back and forth during the trading session on Monday, as we continue to see a lot of back and forth in this market overall. However, we do have more of an upward trend, so I certainly do not have any interest in trying to short gold. The $1800 level above should continue to be massive resistance, but if we can get a daily close above that level, we could then start to see the market take off to the upside, perhaps reaching towards the $2000 level over the longer term....At this point in time, I buy dips and I do not short this market although I do recognize that the market is probably going to continue to find trouble above at the $1800 level. I think that every time we pull back after rising towards that area we have continued to chip away at the resistance, and it is only a matter of time before gives way due to plenty of central bank monetary policy and of course the whole host of potential negative headlines out there."

bear market The Bear Market in Happiness -A Wealth of Common Sense
"For years researchers have been showing through the science of happiness that experiences give you a bigger bang for your buck than material purchases. Experiences make us happier because they involve sights, sounds, social interactions and nostalgia. A trip, a concert, a sporting event, a special night out on the town or a party with close friends will make you much happier than spending money on stuff....This is one of the reasons the uncertainty around the pandemic is so troubling. It's almost impossible to anticipate good times right now because there is a dark cloud hanging over the majority of the best experiences....Our species has of course been through much worse than this and come out the other side, but we happen to be in a massive happiness bear market right now. The entire concept of happiness is often counterintuitive even during normal times. According to Jonathan Rauch in his book The Happiness Curve: People who live in fast-growing economies are less happy than people in slower-growing economies. Rapid change typically makes people very unhappy....Rauch's research shows gratitude can increase optimism, happiness and even physical well-being. Grateful people have been known to be healthier and even sleep better. The simple act of writing a thank you letter or email can improve two lives - the sender and the receiver."

Media refuse to admit the coronavirus doesn't care about red vs. blue -New York Post
"With coronavirus cases surging in the United States, the media were quick to blame: 'Several Republican-led states that moved quickly to reopen this spring at the urging of President Trump have seen new cases explode,' The New York Times reported. Yet hyper-Democratic California is actually seeing the highest number of new cases. Yes, GOP-led Arizona, Florida, Georgia and Texas are also seeing issues. But the red-v.-blue template doesn't fit reality. Last week, the United States saw a single-day record of more than 52,000 new COVID-19 cases....Six states including Cali saw record highs in cases on Wednesday - but Florida wasn't one. Why not flag that? Much of California fears hospitals will be overwhelmed, with Los Angeles County saying it could run out of hospital and ICU beds in two to three weeks. In response, Gov. Gavin Newsom restored restrictions in counties that hold more than 70 percent of the state population - closing bars entirely and shutting down indoor dining and even zoos....In all, 37 states are concerned after seeing their coronavirus cases rise week-over-week last week. The good news is that deaths so far aren't surging in the same way, while hospitalizations aren't lasting as long. In April, the national daily death toll was often above 2,000. Now it's around 600 and continues to drop. So the national surge in cases is concerning but not alarming. One reason for the disparity is that younger people - for whom the virus is far less deadly - are driving the numbers."

7 Social Security mistakes that could cost you a fortune -USA Today
"By taking the time to claim your benefits the right way for you, it maximizes the money you get from Social Security. To ensure you don't cost yourself, here are seven mistakes that are easy to make but important to avoid. 1. Failing to make sure your earnings record is correct - if your earnings record is incorrect, you might not get credit for all of the wages that you paid Social Security tax on....2. Underreporting your income - will reduce your Social Security benefits since the size of your check is based on your average wage....3. Working for too few years - the agency calculates average wages based on the 35 years in which your earnings were highest....4. Quitting work at the peak of your earnings potential - If you're making a lot more late in life, staying on the job a few extra years could let you replace several low-earning years....5. Claiming your benefits at the wrong time - Think about what makes sense for you, and don't make your choice until you understand how your age will affect your benefit amount....6. Failing to explore all the benefits available to you - Spousal and survivors benefits could be available if you're married or widowed...even after a divorce....7. Not understanding the rules before you act - By taking the time to claim your benefits the right way for you, it maximizes the money you get from Social Security so your retirement will be more financially secure."

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7.6.20 - The American Revolution Occurred in a Pandemic

Gold last traded at $1,783 an ounce. Silver at $18.26 an ounce.

NEWS SUMMARY: Precious metal prices rose Monday on safe-haven buying and a weaker dollar. U.S. stocks rose, led by strong gains in the tech sector, as Wall Street tried to shake off a continued rise in coronavirus cases.

Gold Gains 16% with an 8-Year High: Why It Will Continue to Rise -Yahoo Finance
"Gold is a highly valuable commodity. It tends to perform opposite stocks and bonds. Because the value of gold holds well, investors consider it a safe-haven, especially during turbulent economies. In the coronavirus crises, gold is a shiny asset that will likely soar in price in the coming weeks. Here are the reasons why. The global markets experienced severe declines early this year due to the COVID-19 outbreak. As fear creeps out on the second wave of coronavirus infections in different countries, risk-averse assets like gold are attracting more investors. South Korea is now experiencing what seems to be a second wave of coronavirus....Economists worry that there will be more debt and more money circulating. Interest rates and gold correlates negatively. To date, countries with rising infection cases are Iran, Algeria, Israel, and the USA. Confirmed coronavirus cases are now around 10 million, with nearly 500,000 deaths. The US is likely to force tariffs on $3.1 billion worth of UK and EU imports with duties of up to 100%....The heating US-China trade war contributed to the rising interest in gold, pushing its price further up."

MktRisk A $10 Trillion Rally Hinges on Earnings Nobody Has a Clue About -Bloomberg
"Remember last earnings season? When companies were reporting their worst quarter since the financial crisis. And nobody dared guess what the future held. Bankruptcy risk was everywhere. Oh, and stocks rallied so hard that $5 trillion got added to share prices. It's safe to say investors were in a forgiving mood back then...But stocks are also coming off their best quarter in 22 years, with valuations by some measures the most expensive in two decades. Add to that: earnings estimates proffered by analysts are even more speculative this time around, after 80% of companies refused to provide guidance over the last three months. 'Investors are going to start demanding a little bit more clarity - whether it's good or bad, they just want to know,' said David Lebovitz, a global market strategist at JPMorgan Asset Management. While there are nascent signs that the incessant downward revisions to earnings estimates may be over, with the worst of the cuts in the past, there's nothing approaching clarity over what the path forward will look like....Aggregate sell-side estimates for S&P 500 companies expect profits to have declined 44% in the three months ended in June, with earnings seeing double year-over-year declines again in the third and fourth quarters, Bloomberg Intelligence data show. 'When we look at 2021 earnings, we feel those still need to come down quite a bit because they're basically saying next year's earnings will be like 2019,' according to Jerry Braakman, chief investment officer of First American Trust. 'That assumes a V-shaped recovery and I think the stats out there today tell you that maybe a V-shaped recovery is not necessarily what we're going to see,' he said."

Are Stock Investors "˜Irrationally Exuberant' Again? -Hulbert/Wall Street Journal
"The term 'irrational exuberance' traces to a now-famous speech in December 1996 by Alan Greenspan, then chairman of the Federal Reserve. Persuaded by comments by Yale University professor Robert Shiller, Mr. Greenspan wondered, 'How do we know when irrational exuberance has unduly escalated asset values?' The comment caused a sensation among investors, and for years, the term and the date Mr. Greenspan uttered it was referenced whenever the press published stock charts on milestones in the markets. Though the warnings from Mr. Greenspan and Prof. Shiller were sounded early, they were remarkably prescient. In the 2 ½ years following the bursting of the internet-stock bubble, from March 2000 to October 2002, the Nasdaq Composite Index fell 78%. Years later, Prof. Shiller would be awarded the Nobel Prize in economics in part for the research that became the basis of his book 'Irrational Exuberance.' There of course is plenty of anecdotal evidence that individual investors today are rushing into the market in a way reminiscent of the late 1990s. Commission-free brokerage platforms have experienced a surge in new customers, for example. And we're seeing huge swings in individual stocks-sometimes, for little to no reason at all. Consider: In the two weeks after Hertz declared bankruptcy, the company's stock doubled, and investors appeared eager to participate in a secondary offering. The company subsequently withdrew its offering after security regulators vowed to review it. Though fracking company Chesapeake Energy indicated in May that it likely would have to declare bankruptcy, in just one session in early June its stock jumped more than 180%. The company in late June did formally file for chapter 11 protection. Given these examples, it is hard to argue that there aren't pockets of irrational exuberance in the market."

The American Revolution Occurred in the Middle of a Pandemic -Tucker/AIER
"One of the most marvelous books I've read this year is Donald Henderson's personal story of the eradication of smallpox. The book is Smallpox: The Death of a Disease: The Inside Story of Eradicating a Worldwide Killer. It's a brilliant and thrilling adventure story by a man who worked his entire life to make the world a better place. He was also the author (with others) of a mighty treatise against lockdowns that appears at AIER. He died in 2016, which is tragic because we could have used his wisdom in these crazy times. Smallpox is unknown to the current generation precisely because of Henderson's incredible work. It's a wicked disease. One in three who get it die. Many are left with lifetime scars. It's horrid. In the entire centuries-old battle against it, however, no one ever imagined that lockdowns had anything to contribute to its management. What eradicated this horror was a serious effort on the part of medical professionals. Smallpox was a huge player during the American Revolution. It was generally a greater threat to the troops than foreign armies. Here we are today celebrating this Revolution while an entire nation cowers in fear of a virus that is hardly a threat at all to 99.5% of the population while the average age of death is two to four years longer than the average lifespan. There is not a single verified case of reinfection in the world, which implies that the immunities are easily acquired and sustained so far. For soldiers in the Revolutionary War, COVID-19 would have been hardly noticed. Instead they dealt with something far more ghastly. And yet they fought. For freedom."

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7.2.20 - Joe Biden's Plan to Wreck the Economy

Gold last traded at $1,789 an ounce. Silver at $18.32 an ounce.

NEWS SUMMARY: Precious metal prices traded mixed Thursday on upbeat jobs data and a weaker dollar. U.S stocks rose as investors cheered a bigger-than-expected increase in jobs in June as the economy attempts to rebound from the coronavirus shutdown.

Gold Market Zeroes In on Curve Control After Futures Top $1,800 -Bloomberg
"Fresh from futures cracking $1,800 an ounce, the global gold market wants to know what the Federal Reserve may do next to rescue the U.S. economy, with minutes due Wednesday that are expected to shed light on the central bank's willingness to embrace yield curve control. Gold futures eased after reaching the highest in more than eight years, with a focus on the central bank release and warnings about the coronavirus pandemic. Pinning U.S. yields down - if adopted - may aid bullion's allure. On the outbreak, Fed Chair Jerome Powell stressed on Tuesday that getting the virus under control was vital, while disease expert Anthony Fauci said new U.S. cases could spike. Gold's ascent this year has been underpinned by aggressive central bank action to counter the pandemic's economic fallout, with U.S. real interest rates already negative. If 'the prospect of Yield Control Curve (YCC) draws closer and further green lights the hunt for yield,' gold will benefit, Eleanor Creagh, a market strategist at Saxo Capital Markets, said in a note. 'Alongside the hedge against debt monetization and central bank largesse is also the added kickers of persistent virus uncertainties and geopolitical tensions which continue to fuel upside momentum in gold.' A retest of gold's record high could happen before year-end, she said....Sprott's Grosskopf said control of yields may in effect be here already... 'In this situation, gold becomes a much more attractive asset as a hedge to other markets and store of purchasing power.'"

zombie America Is Turning Into A Zombie Economy -Bonner/Rogue Economics
"The big picture: The feds, state and federal, aimed to stifle the spread of COVID-19 by locking down the economy. But just last week, the U.S. reported a 'record number' of new infections. The infections are becoming more and more common, say the reports, among young people. And testing has revealed that the virus is, or was, more widespread than previously thought. But infections aren't deaths. And they aren't necessarily bad. If you can't stop a disease, you're better off when healthy people get it, and get over it, while the unhealthy people lay low. Then, with antibodies widespread, the virus finds fewer victims who can pass it on....So now, although the lockdown approach hasn't beaten the virus, it has flattened the economy. In the U.S., 47 million people applied for unemployment benefits after their jobs were terminated. An estimated 1 million businesses are expected to RIP. Permanently. Globally, as much as $5 trillion of GDP has given up the ghost....A year ago, it was estimated that about 10% of the world's companies were already zombies, unable to earn enough money to pay the interest on their debt (but, thanks to the Federal Reserve and other global central banks, still able to buy back their own shares and pay generous bonuses to managers). So... what to do when these companies face bankruptcy in the COVID Crisis? Lend them more money, of course! Corporations are borrowing at a faster pace than ever before...So, welcome to the Zombie Economy. Giving COVID checks - to the quick and the dead"¦ lending PPP money to zombie companies"¦ No distinction is made between the living and the dead"¦ between real money and fake money"¦ between the just and the unjust"¦ between Heaven and Hell"¦ between getting rich by flimflam or making an honest dollar"¦ People get fake money for not working. Companies get fake money for not turning a profit. The feds grow more powerful by making problems worse. And we all get poorer."

Biden's plan to wreck the economy -Worstall/Washington Examiner
"To the extent that anyone believes 'Sleepy Joe' is concocting policy for his campaign, someone needs to wake him up. Whoever it is that is actually making the policy proposals has put themselves into a difficult corner, one that will wreak havoc on the economy. Joe Biden seems to want to raise the capital gains tax to 40%. It's a bad idea, but not too bad. He also wants to increase the corporate income tax to 28%. Another bad idea, but not too bad. It's the combination of the two that is so terrible....Investment drives growth over the long term. This is why optimal tax theory actually insists that capital incomes, profits and the like, shouldn't be taxed at all. Tax them when they spend it, not when they earn it....The value of an investment is the post-tax income to be gained from it. And if we're to tax it at 40% at the corporate level, then 40% again at the individual level, then we're taxing at (not quite because of the math) something at about 80%, which is really going to encourage people to invest, isn't it? This becomes even clearer if that other idea of raising dividend taxes to the same level as the individual income tax gets added as well. The problem here is obvious enough. There are all these seemingly bright ideas floating around the left-hand side of the aisle. Some to many of them are in conflict with each other, or, when added together, lead to the above sort of economic disaster...Perhaps Biden and his economic advisers should wake up, smell the coffee, and get to work sorting out the good policies from the bad."

Trump will 'probably get re-elected' if 'we can reopen safely' -Gingrich/Just The News
"Former House Speaker Newt Gingrich tells Just the News that President Trump will 'probably get re-elected' if the U.S. economy re-opens 'safely with reasonable precautions' in place. However, Gingrich said Trump's re-election 'gamble' is pushing for re-opening and holding campaign rallies while Democratic challenger Joe Biden stays 'hiding' in his 'basement' out of the public eye. Gingrich said Trump 'probably won't' win if states shut down again and the 'economy goes back in the tank.'....Biden, a former vice president and senator, is leading Trump in recent national polls. Gingrich said that 'the challenge for the president is that he believes his re-election depends, in part, on people having a sense of normalcy' in their lives. 'So he wants to have baseball come back. He wants to have football in September, you know, and I think he's pushing the margins on the grounds that it may cost him right now, but that it won't cost him in the long run. It's a real gamble,' Gingrich said. 'Yes, for some people, they prefer safety to risk taking and it's very clear that Trump is a risk taker, and it's very clear that between the virus and the economy and the Chinese etc. we have a lot of risk out there right now. So it's conceivable that Biden, by hiding, looks passive, and looks non-threatening and that may be reassuring to people, they may say, 'Oh, wow, you know, Biden would never do any of these things.' Now, it's also true that Biden probably wouldn't do anything,' he also said. Gingrich argued that Biden 'would have been a disaster in the first couple months of the epidemic because it was Trump's entrepreneurial skill that convinced the American business community to retool and to produce so many masks and so many ventilators that we're now supplying the whole world, and that took a Trump kind of president.' Gingrich speculated that Biden campaign officials are telling the candidate to 'practice your putting game or play Solitaire, just stay quiet, stay out of it. Do as little as possible and let the world focus on Trump.'....According to Gingrich, Trump must do three things to win re-election. 'He has to get the economy growing, period, that is the base without which nothing else works. Second, he has to communicate what a Biden-Schumer-Pelosi world would be like, so people understand it's not just Biden but it's this entire movement that would radically change America in ways you and I can't imagine,' he said. Gingrich suggested a 12-month holiday from the payroll tax to help small businesses and put more money in Americans' pockets."

**Swiss America will be closed Friday in observance of Independence Day. We hope all of our readers have a wonderful holiday.**

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7.1.20 - Gold Prices Rally Above $1,800/Ounce

Gold last traded at $1,778 an ounce. Silver at $18.21 an ounce.

NEWS SUMMARY: Precious metal prices eased back Wednesday on profit-taking despite a weaker dollar. U.S stocks rallied early then faded amid upbeat coronavirus vaccine news from Pfizer.

Gold Rallies Above $1,800 to Cap Strong Quarter -Wall Street Journal
"Gold prices extended a recent rally Tuesday, closing out their best quarter in four years with uncertainty about the economic recovery and ultralow interest rates lifting demand for the haven metal...Prices ended the second quarter up 13%, their biggest quarterly advance since early in 2016. Tuesday's close marked gold's first close above $1,800 since September 2011, and prices are within about 5% of their all-time high of $1,891.90 from August of that year. Stocks and other areas of the market are rallying as the world economy reopens, but many investors remain bullish on gold because of the unknown direction of the coronavirus pandemic. 'There is undoubtedly risk hedging going on in gold and other precious metals right now, helped by the negligible opportunity cost of holding nonyielding precious metals in a world of negative real interest rates,' said Jonathan Butler, precious metals strategist at Mitsubishi, in a note....The expectation that governments and central banks will continue flooding the global economy with cash to support the recovery are also driving some concerns about a long-term pickup in inflation. That is pushing some investors to reach for gold, which is used by some as a hedge against a rise in consumer prices. A weakening dollar is also supporting precious metals by making them cheaper for overseas buyers."

Why Stocks Can Predict The Next President -LPL Financial Research
"Although the fight against COVID-19 continues to dominate the headlines and our thoughts are with those affected, this is an election year and as we get closer to November it will begin to garner more attention...Today we wanted to share a very interesting connection between the stock market and election. Turns out, since 1928, the stock market has accurately predicted the winner of the election 87% of the time and every single year since 1984. It is quite simple. When the S&P 500 Index has been higher the three months before the election, the incumbent party usually won, while when stocks were lower, the incumbent party usually lost."

stocks

"'Think about it; no one expected Hillary Clinton to lose back in 2016, no one except the stock market that is,' explained LPL Financial Senior Market Strategist Ryan Detrick. 'The Dow had a 9-day losing streak directly ahead of the election, while copper (more of a President Trump infrastructure play) was up a record 14 days in a row, setting the stage for the change in party leadership in the White House.' As shown in the LPL Chart of the Day, as we get closer to the election, how stocks are doing could signal who might win in November."

How risky is flying during the coronavirus pandemic? -Associated Press
"Flying can increase your risk of exposure to infection, but airlines are taking some precautions and you can too. Air travel means spending time in security lines and airport terminals, which puts you into close contact with other people. As travel slowly recovers, planes are becoming more crowded, which means you will likely sit close to other people, often for hours, which raises your risk. Once on a plane, most viruses and other germs don't spread easily because of the way air circulates, according to the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. Airlines also say they are focusing on sanitizing the hard surfaces that passengers commonly touch. Some airlines like Alaska, Delta, JetBlue and Southwest are blocking middle seats or limiting capacity. But even if every middle seat is empty you will likely be closer than the recommended distance of 6 feet to another passenger now that planes are getting fuller. American, United and Spirit are now booking flights to full capacity when they can. All leading U.S. airlines require passengers to wear masks. Lauren Ancel Meyers, an expert in disease outbreaks at the University of Texas, says that can help limit risk. For air travel, and all other types of transportation, the CDC recommends washing your hands, maintaining social distancing and wearing face coverings. Several airlines announced Monday that they will ask passengers about possible COVID-19 symptoms and whether they have been in contact with someone who tested positive for the virus in the previous two weeks."

Let Yourself Be Unproductive. At Least for a Little While. -Harvard Business Review
"I'm hearing other people describe similar struggles as we all experience this pandemic, this economic collapse, this awakening to the depth of racial injustice....I really don't like feeling all this. It makes me anxious. My instinctive drive to push past it kicks in. To plan and to-do list and schedule my way to productivity and achievement and forward progress. That, I know how to do. It's my comfort during uncertainty. But I also have an opposing impulse, a quieter voice, one that feels deeper, more profound, and even scarier: Stay unproductive. At least for a little while. Feel the sadness, the loss, the change. Sink into the discomfort of not moving forward, not getting things done. In a strange way, not progressing may be its own form of productivity. Something fruitful is happening, we're just not controlling it. In this moment, being unproductive seems important. I think it's what I must feel - maybe what we must feel - to allow for growth. To allow ourselves to pause in the liminal space, to linger with a question that this moment begs us to ask: How can I allow myself to be changed?....Can you allow this change in your world - deeply personal and vastly global - to wash over you, shift your worldview, change you?"

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6.30.20 - CV-19 to Impact Businesses Indefinitely

Gold last traded at $1,799 an ounce. Silver at $18.58 an ounce.

NEWS SUMMARY: Precious metal prices extended gains Tuesday nearing 8-year highs on safe-haven buying. U.S. stocks inched higher as investors shrugged off the rising economic impact from the global pandemic.

Top CEOs see business impact from coronavirus lingering until at least the end of 2021 -CNBC
"The chief executives of the nation's biggest companies expect the business impact from the coronavirus to linger until at least the end of 2021. Nearly a third of them fear it could persist beyond then....There had been hopes that the U.S. was on its way to recovery after fears and lockdown orders jolted the economy this spring. But cases of the coronavirus are back on the rise, and states like Texas have had to delay their reopening plans. On Friday alone, 45,255 additional cases were reported, bringing the country's seven-day average to more than 41% higher than the prior week. The Business Roundtable report referred to the growing infection rate, saying the new cases 'suggest the need for broader adoption of safety measures and for public officials to examine their reopening plans to ensure widespread use of masks, continued limitations on gathering size, and measures to keep vulnerable populations safe.'....The Business Roundtable's CEO Economic Outlook Survey - a composite index of chief executive plans for capital spending and hiring over the next six months -fell to 34.3, its lowest reading since the second quarter of 2009."

gold Gold prices top $1,800 an ounce, on track for highest finish since 2011 -Marketwatch
"Gold futures topped $1,800 an ounce on Tuesday, heading for their highest finish since 2011, as uncertainty created by the coronavirus pandemic fed the metal's appeal as a haven investment. 'Gold is one of the only major asset classes to have a positive [year-to-date] return,' said Jeff Klearman, portfolio manager at GraniteShares, which offers the GraniteShares Gold Trust. 'The demand destruction wreaked upon the U.S. and global economies and then the resulting unprecedented monetary and fiscal stimulus response here and abroad is the primary driving force behind gold performance this year.' Rising numbers of new cases of COVID-19 in Florida, Texas, California and Arizona have raised concerns about the potential shape of the economic recovery from recession in the U.S. and the rest of the world. 'Ongoing uncertainty on the effects of the coronavirus on U.S. and global economic recovery, increased stock market volatility, the upcoming U.S. presidential election, civil unrest in the U.S., global trade friction along with the continuation of massive monetary and perhaps fiscal stimulus all provide strong support for gold prices,' Klearman told MarketWatch. There's 'very little reason to see gold prices move lower in the near future.'....In the first half of this year, gold prices traded about 18% higher, over the quarter the commodity has gained nearly 13%...For the first six months of the year, silver prices have climbed 3.7%, but surged 31% over the quarter."

The Fed's reckless experiment -The Hill
"The quantity theory of money, the view that the money supply is the key determinant of inflation, is dead, or so today's mainstream economists tell us. The Federal Reserve is now engaged in a policy that will either put the nail in the quantity theory's coffin or restore it to the textbooks. Sadly, if the theory is alive and wins out, the economy is in for a very rough ride. The theory has had a long history of evidence in its support...In the early 1970s, Milton Friedman warned President Richard Nixon about expanding the money supply. His advice fell on deaf ears, and Nixon proceeded to pressure Arthur Burns, then chair of the Federal Reserve, to 'goose' the money supply. A horrendous decade of inflation followed as the Fed feebly applied its policy tools to avoid recession. Despite this, two recessions occurred, and the inflation rate worsened throughout the decade. It took Paul Volcker in 1980 to really slam on the money-supply brakes to get the inflation under control. Interest rates soared; the economy dropped into a serious recession, but inflation's back was finally broken....In the 49 days ending June 8, the money supply (M2) has increased by $1,018.6 billion. To put this into perspective, the money supply grew by $921 billion in all of 2019. The Fed is 'goosing' the money supply at rates previously thought foolhardy by any quantity theorist worth their salt....The Fed's wild purchase of financial assets, the cause of the exploding money supply, is great for financial markets in the short term, but its effect on employment is likely to be negligible if labor supply restrictions persist. Rather, if the Fed's experiment reignites inflation, we can expect a long and difficult path forward....On June 10, Chairman Jerome Powell announced that the Fed would do 'whatever we can for whatever it takes' to support the economy. Reversal may be a long time coming. Is the quantity theory dead? Did the Fed go too far for too long? Stay tuned."

Covid-19 Drug Remdesivir to Cost $3,120 for Typical Patient -Wall Street Journal
"Gilead Sciences Inc. detailed its pricing plans for Covid-19 drug remdesivir, saying it will charge U.S. hospitals $3,120 for a typical patient with commercial insurance. The drugmaker on Monday disclosed its pricing plans as it prepares to begin charging for the drug in July. The U.S. has been distributing remdesivir donated by Gilead since the drug was authorized for emergency use in May....The government price will be $390 per dose or $2,340 per patient for the shortest treatment course and $4,290 for a longer treatment course. Gilead said in the U.S. it will charge non-government buyers such as hospitals about $520 per dose, or a third more than the government price, for patients who are commercially insured. That works out to $3,120 for a patient getting the shorter, more common course of treatment, and $5,720 for the longer treatment duration....'This medicine is priced far below the value it brings to health-care systems and that's true for private payers and government payers,' Gilead Chief Executive Daniel O'Day said in an interview....The U.S. Food and Drug Administration on May 1 authorized emergency use of remdesivir through the course of the pandemic. Gilead plans to seek a full, permanent approval. In July, Gilead will start charging for the drug, but federal and state officials will continue deciding which hospitals receive it."

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6.29.20 - Homeowners Struggle, Consider Selling

Gold last traded at $1,781 an ounce. Silver at $17.96 an ounce.

NEWS SUMMARY: Precious metal prices steadied near 7-year highs Monday amid rising economic uncertainty. U.S stocks rose as Wall Street cheered news on Boeing and traders shrugged off the latest surge in coronavirus cases.

Gold Prices: Five Reasons Gold Is Set To Explode -Forbes
"The gold price hit a peak of $1,779 Friday as investors started to diversify their bets. Five key factors are likely to push gold prices higher in the coming days. 1) Coronavirus: Second Wave - New cases have started to surge. It was expected that there would be some spike in coronavirus cases as economies began to re-open. But what wasn't priced in was that the situation would start to get out of control....2) Possible New Tariffs On Europe - Trump is weighing new tariffs on $3.1 billion of exports from the UK, Spain, France, and Germany. If tensions continue to rise on this issue...investors are likely to steer away from riskier assets....3) China-US Trade War - The Phase-one US-China trade deal has become immensely fragile due to coronavirus. China has reduced its Agriculture and poultry from the US. There has been confusion about the US-China trade deal, and Trump has also talked about 'decoupling' from China....4) The US Unemployment Claims - The weekly jobless claims data continue to paint a very dull picture for the US labor market. Sadly, with the regional shutdown of stores in the US, it seems the minor recovery we have seen so far could be under a significant threat....5) Earnings season - The third earnings quarter is currently wrapping up. But the emergence of the second corona wave is likely to trigger another cautionary note from US companies, and investors are not going to like it...Again, the risk-off mode is likely to spur interest in gold."

bear market The Biggest Disconnect Between Prices And Profits In Stock Market History? -Zero Hedge
"Everyone is talking about the massive disparity between stock prices and fundamentals right now. To paraphrase Jeremy Grantham, we now find ourselves in the top 1% of stock market valuations and the bottom 1% of economic outcomes (based on the annualized rate of decline in second quarter GDP)....Profit margins in recent years became extremely inflated. This serves to make stock prices over the past few years look less expensive than they otherwise would. So if we normalize profit margins (hat tip, John Hussman), we can see that stock prices today are more expensive than they were 20 years ago at the peak of the Dotcom mania. It turns out that the current disconnect between stock prices and sustainable profits is, in fact, greater than anything we have seen in modern history. The last time we saw prices and earnings disconnect in such an extreme way famously led to a 'lost decade' for the stock market from 2000 to 2010. Is it unreasonable to think the current extreme in valuations could lead to another 'lost decade,' especially if profit margins are only beginning to revert to their historical mean?"

U.S. Crossing 'Red Lines' Could Put Trade Deal at Risk -Wall Street Journal
"Beijing has begun quietly delivering a message to Washington: U.S. pressure over matters China considers off limits could jeopardize Chinese purchases of farm goods and other U.S. exports under the 'Phase One' trade deal. Chinese leaders have accused Washington of meddling in areas such as Hong Kong, where China is imposing a sweeping national-security law, and Taiwan, which Beijing considers as part of China. Last Thursday, the U.S. Senate passed by unanimous consent a bill that would put sanctions on Chinese officials, businesses and banks that undermine Hong Kong's limited autonomy from Beijing....While China's top diplomat, Yang Jiechi reiterated Beijing's commitment to carrying out the trade deal, he stressed that both sides had to 'work together,' said people familiar with the conversations. A Chinese official said that meant 'the U.S. side should refrain from going too far with meddling.' The official added, 'Red lines shouldn't be crossed.'....'You can't keep asking us to buy your stuff and at the same time keep beating up on us,' said Mei Xinyu, an analyst at a think tank affiliated with China's Commerce Ministry. 'That's not how it works.' Beijing has committed to boosting its purchases of American agricultural and manufactured goods, energy and services by $200 billion over two years, a more rapid and sustained pace than at any time since China joined the World Trade Organization in 2001."

Half of U.S. homeowners struggle with mortgage due to COVID-19, consider selling home -Study Finds
"The coronavirus pandemic has been devastating for the United States economy. A new study finds the crisis could soon cause a big shakeup in the real estate market. As homeowners struggle to pay their bills, researchers say many Americans are thinking about putting up the 'For Sale' sign. A survey of 2,000 American homeowners found that 52 percent are constantly concerned about making their mortgage payment on time. Forty-seven percent of the poll say they're considering selling their home because they can't afford their mortgage anymore. Researchers say 35 percent of U.S. homeowners admit they've missed a mortgage payment during the pandemic. The same amount of respondents said they worry about losing their home because of the financial situation COVID-19 has put them in....More than half of the survey admit they've cut back on their basic expenses to afford paying off their home. Seventy-one percent of homeowners have significantly cut back on buying clothes. Other habits the tough financial times have cut into include buying take-out food (66%), paying for a streaming service (46%), and buying groceries (45%). The pandemic is also causing many in the survey to find new ways to make money. Nearly two-thirds of the poll say they've started a side project. Another 53 percent of homeowners are selling their own possessions to make extra income."

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6.26.20 - Gold Headed for All-Time High -BofA

Gold last traded at $1,781 an ounce. Silver at $18.00 an ounce.

NEWS SUMMARY: Precious metal prices inched toward fresh 7-year highs Friday on safe-haven buying. U.S. stocks fell amid concerns over the rising number of coronavirus cases in the U.S. and its impact on the economic recovery.

Bank of America backs gold for all-time high this year as precious metal surges -CNBC
"Gold has continued to rise of late as a resurgence of coronavirus cases, particularly in the U.S., has dented some of the investor optimism about the speed of a post-pandemic recovery....The precious metal is up by around 16% since the start of the year, and analysts see the broad rally continuing as uncertainty abounds over the virus and reemerging global trade tensions. Bank of America Chief Global FICC Technical Strategist Paul Ciana said the uptrend in gold prices is set to test the 2012 highs of $1,790-1,805/oz in the next week. Should it break through expected resistance at $1,800, bullion will then set its sights on the all-time high of $1,920.70 made in 2011, Ciana said in a note Wednesday. 'The breakout occurring now that is ending Q2 completes an eight week trading range that has resumed higher,' Ciana explained. 'The range breakout targets 1900 while the head and shoulders continuation confirmed in April targets 1947. These patterns say gold can make a new all-time high in the (second half of 2020) with Q3 on our mind.' Ciana suggested that a wave leading gold prices into the $2,000s is already underway, with an upside scenario of $2,114-$2,296."

gold Owning Gold is as Much about Diversification as it is about Capital Appreciation -Knowledge Leaders Capital
"Regular readers of our content know that we have been building the case for several years now on why gold deserves a place in diversified portfolios. Sure, we see significant upside in gold (unlimited upside, in fact), aided as I will show by the unprecedented rise in US dollar money supply in response to the COVID crisis. But the case for gold is much deeper than simply a story of potential capital appreciation. These days, gold as an asset class is in an entirely unique position to not only provide upside potential, but also provide a layer of diversification within a portfolio that neither stocks nor risk-free nominal bonds can achieve on their own or even together....Gold provides both capital appreciation potential as well as diversification to equity risk....The fundamental case for higher gold prices is really quite simple. While many view gold as an asset class that rises when inflation expectations or actual inflation rises, it's even simpler than that. The quantity of gold is relatively fixed. The quantity of money is not. Therefore, when the quantity of money rises, the price of gold as priced in terms of that form of money must also rise....With the fundamental case for higher gold prices out of the way, let's move onto gold's application as a portfolio diversifier. The reason it makes sense to form multi-asset portfolios vs all-equity portfolios is that equity risk hard to diversify away with a portfolio of"¦equities. Indeed, even as there exists idiosyncratic risk exposures of individual stocks, there are market forces of demographics, interest rates, productivity levels, economic growth rates, etc. that affect both public and non-public equities....Gold exhibits the same negative correlation with stocks that both the nominal bonds and TIPS do. However, unlike nominal bonds it has no theoretical upside. And unlike TIPS, gold may appreciate in price independent of actual or expected inflation trends....Indeed, gold has outperformed TIPS by 20% over the last 12 months."

The Wrong and Right Ways to Pursue Recovery from the Pandemic -Real Clear Markets
"When it comes to a once-in-a-century pandemic and the recession caused by lockdown efforts, not all policy responses are created equal. And unfortunately, while some good ideas have been put forward for transitioning to economic recovery mode, many bad ones have gained traction as well. First and foremost, policymakers must be aware that attempting to enforce a lockdown while simultaneously pursuing economic recovery is quixotic. While lockdowns are in place, the priority from an economic perspective is to keep businesses and workers afloat through the provision of relief from taxes and regulations as well as other forms of aid like bridge loans. Only when the course of the pandemic permits lockdowns to phase out should the policy priority shift to new growth. One popular idea for spurring economic growth is a massive new infrastructure package...Yet the cost-effectiveness of a massive infrastructure spend is questionable in the best of circumstances. Federally-directed infrastructure spending is often out of touch with the needs of the state, local and private owners of that infrastructure, and tends to be inefficiently directed....Smart infrastructure policy should focus on the longer term by removing government roadblocks to private investment and more efficient use of public dollars. Another idea that is beginning to take hold is the concept of a $4,000 'tourism tax credit' for travel expenses inside the United States. While it's easy to see the appeal of the proposal, a tax credit can only temporarily ease the financial concerns Americans have about traveling - not the worries about catching and spreading the virus....A potential payroll tax cut has also been an idea batted around since the crisis's inception...Providing a payroll tax credit for businesses to make their facilities safer for workers and customers could help as well....Federal unemployment subsidies should be phased out in concert with the end of lockdowns and hibernating businesses getting up and running....Reopening an economy after months of lockdowns is uncharted territory, and formulating a policy response may prove more difficult because of that. Yet there are some ideas we should be able to cross off - and add to - the list even at this point."

The Individual's Kingdom -Rossini/Mises
"If there is one word that accurately describes our physical world and our individual human lives, it is 'uniqueness.' Every grain of sand, every snowflake, every animal and every human being is exquisitely unique. One-of-a-kind. No copies....As CEO's of our individual kingdoms, we are tasked with choosing our own thoughts, what to dwell upon, our beliefs, valuations, choices, and actions. No one else can do any of these things for us. They can certainly suggest what we should think, choose, or do, but their power stops there. We individually must decide whether to listen to them or not....The great Ludwig von Mises said it perfectly: 'Only the individual thinks. Only the individual reasons. Only the individual acts.' If one is tasked with having to sum this extraordinary gift up into one word, that word would be - LIBERTY. Liberty is a part of human nature. America's Founders described it as a self-evident truth. Liberty just is, and like all of nature, human nature cannot be changed. It is....Since each individual has the natural right to his own life, liberty, property and pursuit of happiness, it necessarily means that individual liberty comes with built-in restraints. The restraint is other individuals and their natural right to their own life, liberty, property and pursuit of happiness. Our individual liberty extends to the liberty of others. It stops right there and goes no further. The moment we choose to harm another individual's person or property, we are choosing to act as a tyrant....Fortunately, the good life is only a choice away. Dealing with others through consent and voluntarism is just a choice, a simple choice. Let us each, individually, strive to make that choice on a daily basis."

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6.25.20 - Key Support for the Economy May Be About to Buckle

Gold last traded at $1,771 an ounce. Silver at $17.87 an ounce.

NEWS SUMMARY: Precious metals traded mixed Thursday as investors digested the latest economic and jobs data. U.S. stocks cut earlier pandemic-inspired losses as banks jumped on news they will get easier regulations.

Gold: The new currency? -Economic Times
"A monetary system based on fiat money amounts to no more than a confidence game...The confidence is that the country's currency is 'valuable' because of the country's economic and military strength. This is what we have been made to believe in. Actually speaking, fiat currency is simply the printing of a currency out of thin air with no intrinsic value. If too much money is created the public will lose confidence in its purchasing power and the perceived value of the money can collapse....As a result, people will want to convert their cash / wealth to something that they believe in, something that can protect their wealth with, something that has intrinsic value and that has proved its worth over decades....Gold certainly suits the requirements. The sheer fact that it cannot be created at will by the central bankers. It possesses an intrinsic value and is free from any counterparty risk. It has decade's long history of being used as a form of currency. However, Gold won't be currency today - there isn't a political will to support it and also there isn't enough gold to support the return of the gold standard. Still, long-term trends in gold prices are driven by changes in the overall level...Fundamentally, gold is rightly increasing in nominal value, being the only currency whose supply is highly constrained. In simple words, gold is simply adjusting to changes in global monetary conditions. When a central bank increases their money supply, the price of other currencies adjusts upwards. This is true for all currencies including gold. Therefore, the one thing against which global currencies are truly perishing is the ultimate form of real monetary asset i.e. Gold. Make a strategic allocation to gold because it's the counterweight to paper money which is continuing to lose credibility as a store of value."

government Key Support for the Economy May Be About to Buckle -Wall Street Journal
"Spending by Americans with the lowest incomes has registered a far bigger bounce since the worst of the Covid-19 crisis than spending among the better off. That recovery may prove fleeting. The drop in spending that started in mid-March, as worries about the novel coronavirus pandemic became widespread, was swift and devastating....Spending by consumers who live in ZIP Codes in the bottom quarter of the U.S. by median income didn't fall quite as far, bottoming out with a 30% decline from January levels, and lately was down 2.8%. Spending by consumers who live in areas where median incomes are in the top quarter, on the other hand, fell by as much as 36%, and is still down 13.3%....Poorer people's spending held up better because they have less spending that can easily be cut than rich people...But with many stimulus checks already spent, and with unemployed Americans scheduled to stop receiving the extra $600 a week in jobless benefits on July 31, poorer Americans' wherewithal to spend is in danger of collapsing. Unless the job market is materially better by then, there is a risk of widespread financial distress among low-income Americans. That is bound to crimp spending, even among those who already limit most of their shopping to the bare necessities."

There's a wave of selling estimated to be in the billions that's about to hit the stock market -CNBC
"The final day of June is a week away, and Wall Street is already speculating that there's the potential some asset allocators, like pension funds, could take the big gains from the stock market and move them into bonds. There's a wide range of views about how much selling could hit the stock market, but some strategists say the resulting market move may not be that big after all because of prior selling and action in the derivatives market. 'The end of the quarter is going to be pretty interesting, given how much the market has moved during this quarter. There could be volatility here. We already witnessed it and there's potential for more, as we move toward the end of Q2,' said Dan Deming, managing director at KKM Financial....'We estimate that U.S corporate pensions will move about $35 billion into fixed income,' said Michael Schumacher, director of rates strategy at Wells Fargo....'There's been more bizarre behavior in 2020 than in the last 10 years combined.'"

Ignore the Signal - Listen to the Noise -O'Rourke/American Consequences
"The protests all across America are obvious, but what's most obvious about them is not what's most important...The message is more fundamental than the mess....The protesters' demands - justice, ending racism, and eliminating violent, bigoted, and incompetent behavior by the authorities - are so inarguable they almost cause a consensus headache. People of goodwill have been trying to achieve these goals for hundreds of years. In the case of the first demand - justice - people of goodwill have been trying to achieve it for thousands of years....We are a Big Bang society, with the American singularity flying apart in every direction at the speed of light. Three enormously powerful forces are causing America to be blown to smithereens. 1. A disconnect between the government and the governed...A black hole of bureaucracy has been created, sucking every aspect of government accountability into its dense and incomprehensive abyss....2. A disconnect between our economy and our home economics...The business of making a living has been divorced from work. The work has been shipped overseas where people are willing to do it for pesos or renminbi or rupees instead of money. Money has lost any relationship to value....3. A disconnect I wish we could make...The Internet's pandemonium keeps the voices of reason and sense from rising above the clamor of the mob. Everyone is handed a bullhorn and no one is given a pulpit. Leadership is trivialized by the Internet....Without leadership, we're right here where we are now."

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6.24.20 - Gold Prices Highest Since 2012

Gold last traded at $1,778 an ounce. Silver at $17.70 an ounce.

NEWS SUMMARY: Precious metal prices steadied near 8-year highs Wednesday on rising economic uncertainty. U.S. stocks fell sharply as traders grew worried about the increasing number of coronavirus cases, which raised concern about economic reopening and recovery.

Gold prices highest since 2012 as US dollar stumbles -New York Post
"Gold prices surged to their highest since October 2012 on Tuesday, driven by a weakness in the US dollar and widespread monetary stimulus packages by central banks as a jump in coronavirus cases dents the economic outlook...'The tsunami of stimulus coming in from everywhere is not only inflationary but also painting a weaker picture for the economy and making gold look attractive,' said Edward Meir, analyst at ED&F Man Capital Markets. Gold has gained nearly 16 percent this year supported by global stimulus measures since the non-yielding metal is considered a hedge against inflation and currency debasement....Gold's gains came despite a rise in equities driven by encouraging economic data and after President Trump tweeted the US-China trade pact was 'fully intact.' 'Gold's biggest enemy right now is if other markets grab attention and capital,' said Tai Wong, head of base and precious metals derivatives trading at BMO. 'Barring a poor close under $1,750 in the coming days the October 2012 high of about $1,800 should only be a matter of time, a week, perhaps less.'"

money The Heart of the Nation's Corrupt Money System -Bonner/Rogue Economics
"Fun, fun, fun, 'til her daddy takes the T-bird away - The Beach Boys - We begin with a look at what happens when the fun stops. That is, when the T-Bird gets taken away. Here's MarketWatch: 'Stephen Roach, Yale University senior fellow and former Morgan Stanley Asia chairman, has a warning for U.S. dollar bulls. The prominent economist says that the era of the U.S. buck may be coming to an end and is forecasting a 35% decline soon in the U.S. currency against its major rivals, citing increases in the nation's deficit and dwindling savings.' The dollar is a kind of 'circuit breaker,' the weakest link in the whole fake-money chain. The feds have almost unlimited power. They can pay off their cronies and make the rich richer. They can give $1,200 checks to everyone. They can build bridges"¦ attack poor foreign countries"¦ hand out free money to poor people"¦ provide bread and circuses for the masses...In short, they can do almost any damn fool thing they want - as long as they can pay for it. But all of these transactions take place in U.S. dollars. And while they can produce as many dollars as they want, they can't force people to take them seriously. Generally and eventually, the more you 'print,' the less they are worth. As the fake dollar goes, so goes the empire. That is, they go down together....Meanwhile, the rot at the heart of the system is causing Americans to move to the extremities. Red or Blue"¦ conservative or liberal"¦ for or against. And the two sides are moving farther and farther away from each other....The one policy that both left and right agree on is money-printing....Where does all this money-printing lead? What happens when the T-Bird gets taken away? Stay tuned..."

6 steps to handling money in a recession -Fox Business
"The recession is officially here. According to the National Bureau of Economic Research, after an unprecedented 128-month expansion, the economy peaked in February and has been going downhill ever since. The big question now is, how long will it last? Unfortunately, no one can be sure, as there are many variables that can affect the economy, and many of these are unknown. Here are six smart tips you can use now to make sure you survive the recession and come out the other side with your money intact. 1. Revisit your investments - This current recession has probably taught you a lot about your portfolio diversification....2. Don't panic-sell - Fact: You only lose money in the stock market when you sell....3. Tighten your budget - There's no better way to generate free cash than to review your expenditures and eliminate - even temporarily - items that aren't essential....4. Apply for a home equity line of credit - You generally need about 20% equity to qualify, but if you do, you'll have a credit line with a low interest rate at your fingertips in case you ever need it....5. Review your insurance policies - You may find lots of cash lurking in their nooks and crannies. Consider raising your deductibles, which could lower your premiums substantially....6. Invest for the recovery - In times of recession, there are many ways to handle your money and generate new possibilities for now and the future. "

Who Wants to Be a Cop? -McGurn/Wall Street Journal
"Rising from weeks of protests against police brutality and racism, one 'reform' now dominates discussion: 'Defund the police.' This is the solution endorsed by the Minneapolis City Council, the demand of Black Lives Matter, and the message painted in large yellow letters on a street across from the White House. But there's a more fundamental threat to policing, seldom even mentioned: What happens if men and women of character and ability conclude that being a police officer these days just isn't worth it? 'I'm keenly aware of how low morale can affect how police do their jobs,' says Detroit Police Chief James Craig. 'It's a big concern for me. Good police morale translates into lower crime.'....In 2009 he took the chief's job in Portland, Maine, and two years later he became Cincinnati's first African-American police chief. In 2014 he returned home as Detroit's top cop, leading a force that is majority black....Good policing, he says, is rooted in trust. Officers have the right to expect their leaders to back them up when things get tough. But it's a two-way street. Cops have to show they will hold their bad apples accountable and build relationships with the community before tragedies happen....Policing isn't for everyone. The life is hard on families. Officers go to work every day with the possibility they won't be coming home. They deal with people at their worst, sometimes in the wake of unspeakable tragedy. And they are expected to keep their cool even when spat on or subjected to the vilest insults. 'The average person could not put up with what cops are expected to put up with,' Mr. Craig says. 'We are held to a higher standard.'....Going forward, any effort to address police brutality must begin with honest distinctions. Mr. Craig rightly distinguishes between protesters and criminals. Similarly, America's national debate over policing must begin by resisting efforts to lump the majority of police, who do their jobs well and humanely, in with those like the Minneapolis cop in that horrific video."

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6.23.20 - What Democrats' Socialism Looks Like

Gold last traded at $1,781 an ounce. Silver at $18.06 an ounce.

NEWS SUMMARY: Precious metal price hit fresh 7-year highs Tuesday on safe-haven buying and a weaker dollar. U.S. stocks inched higher amid growing concern over the U.S.-China trade deal.

The Democrats' socialism looks more like Venezuela than Scandinavia -D'Souza/New York Post
"One might think that our experience with the coronavirus has given Americans a scary foretaste of radical socialism. Empty shelves, shortages and limits on basic commodities, economic stagnation, and all of this combined with a sustained assault on our privacy, our freedom of assembly and our religious freedom. We have endured on a temporary basis what some socialist societies typically provide on a permanent basis. Yet the socialist gang is still out there - Bernie and the Squad - touting the virtues of socialism. And they're pulling the Democratic Party in their direction, with Biden now climbing on the free college bandwagon and embracing the socialist agenda packaged in the Green New Deal. Democratic socialists like Bernie and Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez insist that their brand of socialism is modeled not on the failed socialisms of the past, but rather on the one place where socialism seems to work: Scandinavia. But upon examination the Scandinavian or Nordic model is not what the Left is proposing here. Scandinavian countries are pro-capitalist in wealth creation and socialist in wealth distribution....Corporate taxes in Scandinavian countries are around 20 percent, no higher than in the United States. There is no minimum wage in Scandinavia. Companies can hire and fire workers for any reason....Scandinavia is far removed from George Bernard Shaw's maxim that 'Any country that robs Peter to pay Paul can always count on Paul's support.' Yet that principle is precisely what drives the socialist Left in this country. The appeal of socialism, especially to young people, is the appeal of 'free stuff.'....The American Left's socialist model is in fact more akin to Venezuela than Scandinavia....Bottom line: The Left keeps telling us it wants to take us to Stockholm, but its policies point in the direction of Caracas. Venezuela was once a prosperous country, but its divisive brand of socialism destroyed it. We can't allow the same to happen here."

gold Gold price surges to 7.5-year high as coronavirus concerns mount -Fox Business
"Gold prices rallied to a more than 7.5-year high on Monday as investors continued to buy the precious metal amid concerns over the strength of the economic recovery and that unprecedented stimulus would lead to inflation down the road...The precious metal has gained 15.83 percent this year. With worries over North Korea, trade with China and the U.S. election, buyers are keeping 'gold on the buy list,' wrote George Gero, managing director at RBC Global Wealth Management and a member of the COMEX board of directors. He pointed to continued buying of exchange-traded funds and the reopening of malls and New York City's Diamond District. Gold has surged this year as investors have sought safety in the precious metal amid the economic fallout caused by the COVID-19 pandemic....The U.S. Congress in March passed the $2.2 trillion CARES Act which extended $1,200 checks to most Americans, in addition to providing relief for health care providers and businesses. Those policy actions are likely to support the precious metal, according to the Commodities Research team at Goldman Sachs, which last week raised its 12-month price target to $2,000 an ounce."

Today's 'Present Danger' is China -Real Clear History
"Forty years ago, Norman Podhoretz, then editor of Commentary magazine, wrote a book entitled The Present Danger. It was a small book - a little over a hundred pages - but its influence was substantial and its principal themes were profound....Podhoretz warned that if U.S. leaders did not reverse course 'it would signify the final collapse of an American resolve to resist the forward surge of Soviet imperialism.'....The same year that The Present Danger was published, Ronald Reagan, who embodied the 'new nationalism' that Podhoretz wrote about, and who did not shy away from the word 'communism' and understood the nature of the Soviet threat, was elected President. Reagan abandoned détente and implemented an offensive policy that brought down the Soviet empire. The 'present danger' today is another communist power on the Eurasian landmass - China. It, too, wishes to create a new international order in which it would be the dominant power. China has engaged in a military build-up similar to the Soviet build-up in the 1970s. It has acted aggressively in the South China Sea and seeks to extend its geopolitical influence throughout Eurasia via the Belt and Road Initiative. It has cracked down on the freedom of the people in Hong Kong and has rattled sabers at Taiwan. China's economic power and its geographical access to the sea make it in some ways a more dangerous rival than the Soviet Union was in the 1970s and 1980s. However, the 'culture of appeasement' in this country still exists. Much of the foreign policy establishment and much of the Democratic Party leadership counsels engagement with China and warns against a new Cold War. There is not yet a bipartisan consensus for a policy of containment of China. We need only to follow Norman Podhoretz's advice in The Present Danger to 'energize . . . our determination to marshal the power we will need 'to assure the survival and the success of liberty' in the new and definitely more dangerous age ahead.'"

How Exactly Do You Catch Covid-19? There Is a Growing Consensus -Wall Street Journal
"Six months into the coronavirus crisis, there's a growing consensus about a central question: How do people become infected? It's not common to contract Covid-19 from a contaminated surface, scientists say. And fleeting encounters with people outdoors are unlikely to spread the coronavirus. Instead, the major culprit is close-up, person-to-person interactions for extended periods. Crowded events, poorly ventilated areas and places where people are talking loudly - or singing, in one famous case - maximize the risk. These emerging findings are helping businesses and governments devise reopening strategies to protect public health while getting economies going again. That includes tactics like installing plexiglass barriers, requiring people to wear masks in stores and other venues, using good ventilation systems and keeping windows open when possible....Based on this emerging picture of contagion, some policies are changing. The standard procedure for someone who tests positive is to quarantine at home. Some cities are providing free temporary housing and social services where people who are infected can stay on a voluntary basis, to avoid transmitting the virus to family members. The CDC recently urged Americans to keep wearing masks and maintaining a distance from others as states reopen. 'The more closely you interact with others, the longer the interaction lasts, the greater the number of people involved in the interaction, the higher the risk of Covid-19 spread,' said Jay Butler, the CDC's Covid-19 response incident manager."

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6.22.20 - Goldman Ups Gold Forecast on Debasement Fears

Gold last traded at $1,769 an ounce. Silver at $17.94 an ounce.

NEWS SUMMARY: Precious metal prices rose Monday on safe-haven buying amid downbeat housing data and a weaker dollar. U.S. stocks traded mostly lower as investors assessed an uptick in coronavirus cases and the pace of the economic recovery.

Goldman hikes gold price forecast on debasement fears and a weaker dollar -CNBC
"Goldman Sachs analysts are backing gold to rally further on the back of debasement fears and a weakening dollar....in a note Friday, Goldman Sachs updated its three-, six- and 12-month gold price forecasts to $1800/1900/2000/oz from $1600/1650/1800/oz and maintained its long December 2020 gold trading recommendation. Goldman analysts attributed the recent indecision to a conflict between the negative 'wealth' shock to emerging market consumers and a positive 'fear-driven' investment demand in developed markets....Year-to-date gold coin demand is up 30%, total weight of gold in ETFs (exchange-traded funds) is up 20% year-on-year and there is a large amount of latent gold demand, Goldman's commodities researchers Jeff Currie, Mikhail Sprogis and Daniel Sharp highlighted....'Gold investment demand tends to grow into the early stage of the economic recovery, driven by continued debasement concerns and lower real rates,' the note said...Debasement refers to a depreciation in the value of a currency....HSBC Chief Precious Metals Analyst James Steele suggested in a note Friday that the broad economic recovery will inevitably weigh on gold, but the fundamental drivers of gold prices should be the low yield environment, substantial fiscal and monetary stimulus and the inflationary impact on asset prices."

stocks Stock-market legend who called 3 financial bubbles says this one is the 'Real McCoy,' this is 'crazy stuff' -Marketwatch
"Jeremy Grantham, co-founder and chief investment strategist at Boston-based money manager Grantham, Mayo, Van Otterloo & Co., is offering up a stark warning to speculators driving the stock market to new heights amid the greatest pandemic of the past century. 'This is really the real McCoy, this is crazy stuff,' said Grantham...Gratham painted a very dire picture of the investment landscape in the U.S., suggesting that rampant trading by out-of-work investors and speculative fervor around bankrupt companies, including car-rental company Hertz Global Holdings Inc., reflects a market that may be the most bubblicious he's seen in his storied career. 'It is a rally without precedence,' he told CNBC, noting that the run-up comes amid a period in which U.S. economic health is at a low point, with millions of people out of work and bankruptcies likely to continue to rise due to a slowdown in business activity and closures that have come in the aftermath of lockdowns implemented to curb the spread of the deadly COVID-19 pathogen....Grantham is worth paying attention to due to his prescient calls over the years. He said that stocks were overvalued in 2000 and again in 2007, anticipating those market downturns, the Wall Street Journal reports. Grantham also signaled that elements of the financial market had become unmoored from reality leading up to the 2008-09 financial crisis. Asked what level of exposure investors should have to U.S. equities...'I think a good number now is zero - and less than zero might not be a bad idea if you can stand that.'"

The Economic Boom You Heard About Never Really Was -Snyder/Real Clear Markets
"What do you think a roaring stock market signals to the ten maybe fifteen million missing out of the labor force since the first (21st century) global financial crisis? It tells them the system must be rigged, that this booming economy they keep hearing about must only apply to a limited set that purposefully excludes them and nearly everyone they know. And then to champion Federal Reserve Chairmen, one after another, for this 'accomplishment.'....CHAZ, or CHOP, if you prefer, didn't just happen overnight. As repugnant and as outwardly nasty as Occupy Wall Street had been, why is it still around now in this mutated format?....The unemployment rate said the economy last year was in the best shape it had been since 1969, but that should've been reconciled with an economy that also was, at its last peak in Q4 2019, still $5.1 trillion off its pre-crisis pace....Millions upon millions of workers never got back to work, never got to work, and then just disappeared silently into the cracks of the unemployment rate's suspect denominator. Maybe the financial media hadn't noticed, but a hell of a lot of people sure have. And now you notice them....Had the Great 'Recession' been a recession, real GDP in the US would've been somewhere around $24.7 trillion (in 2012 $s) when the BEA calculates that it was instead just $19.2 trillion. Occupy Wall Street and the Seattle barricades don't happen if that $5 trillion currently missing had happened. Now COVID-19, perhaps one too many negative factors....The protestors are united in believing in their call for an end to capitalism because all they know of capitalism is post-2008. Understand why, don't just dismiss; you don't have to agree with their idea of a solution, or the historical illiteracy from which these ideas arise, reach instead for humanity and charity."

Most Enjoyable Jobs for Older Workers -U.S. News
"Older workers who are 50 to 65 aren't so different from their younger counterparts. Flexible schedules and meaningful work are priorities that transcend generations, and 94% of talent professionals say the employee experience is becoming more important, according to the Global Talent Trends 2020 report from LinkedIn. That means relationships with colleagues, work environments and the work itself will all become key to attracting and retaining workers. 'As people of any age, we thrive when we have purpose and direction. We languish without it,' says Sharon Duncan, a certified financial planner and president of Selah Financial Services, which has two locations in the Houston area. However, older Americans may be in a better position to pursue their dream job. With years of workplace experience under their belts, they may already have savings, benefits and retirement plans from earlier jobs as well as the insight to know what type of work appeals to them. Whether you want an encore career, or are simply looking to make some extra money while semiretired, here are 10 jobs that workers age 50 and older may find enjoyable. Clergy. Counselor. Retail salesperson. Administrative supervisor. Teacher. Insurance sales agent. Landscaper or groundskeeper. Floral designer. Health care worker. A job that captures your imagination....If you love your current career, you may be able to work part time or as a consultant. Retirement also provides an opportunity to move into a different field if you want to try something new. Any job can be an enjoyable job for older workers, and everyone needs to figure out what that occupation is for him or herself."

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6.19.20 - 46 Million Americans Jobless Since Lockdown

Gold last traded at $1,754 an ounce. Silver at $17.86 an ounce.

NEWS SUMMARY: Precious metal prices rose sharply Friday as concern over rising virus cases lifted demand. U.S. stocks rose on upbeat news that China was set to up its purchases of U.S. farm products to comply with the phase one trade deal.

World's ultra-wealthy go for gold amid stimulus bonanza -Reuters
"As stock markets roar back from the coronavirus-led rout, advisers to the world's wealthy are urging them to hold more gold, questioning the strength of the rally and the long-term impact of global central banks' cash splurge. Before the COVID-19 pandemic, most private banks recommended their clients hold none or just a tiny amount of gold. Now some are channeling up to 10% of their clients' portfolios into the yellow metal as the massive central bank stimulus reduces bond yields - making non-yielding gold more attractive - and raises the risk of inflation that would devalue other assets and currencies. While gold prices have already risen 14% since the start of the year to $1,730 an ounce, many private bankers bet that gold - a hedge for both inflation and deflation - has further to run. 'Our view is that the weight of monetary supply, expansion, is going to ultimately be debasing to the dollar, and the Fed commitments, which (are) anchoring real rates, make the case for gold pretty sturdy,' said Lisa Shalett, Chief Investment Officer, Wealth Management at Morgan Stanley. Nine private banks spoken to by Reuters, which collectively oversee around $6 trillion in assets for the world's ultra-rich, said they had advised clients to increase their allocation to gold. Of them, four provided forecasts and all saw prices ending the year higher than they are now. UBS, the world's biggest wealth manager, said gold could hit $1,800 by year-end in its base-case scenario, driven by ultra-low interest rates and investors seeking gold to hedge their portfolios, or even touch a record high of $2,000 in the event of a second wave of novel coronavirus infections. 'With the recent equity rally, people have become more nervous. People are actively seeking out portfolio hedges that might perform well in a range of scenarios,' said Kiran Ganesh from UBS's chief investment office....The boost in demand could be a self-fulfilling prophecy for the metal's price, as any shift in allocation from bond and equity markets, estimated at up to a combined $200 trillion, has a much larger impact on the smaller gold market, estimated at less than $5 trillion."

Almost 46 Million Americans Have Now Filed For Unemployment Claims Since Lockdowns Began -Zero Hedge
"Despite the hope-restoring nonfarm payrolls 'recovery' and the over-hyped bounce in retail sales (ignoring the lack of 'V' in industrial production), in the last week 1.508 million more Americans filed for unemployment benefits for the first time (notably worse than the 1.29mm expected). That brings the thirteen-week total to 45.7million, dramatically more than at any period in American history. However, as the chart above shows, the second derivative has turned the corner (even though the 1.508 million rise this last week is still higher than any other week in history outside of the pandemic). Continuing Claims did drop very modestly but hardly a signal that 're-opening' is occurring! And definitely not confirming the payrolls data."

jobless claims

"What is most disturbing is that in the last thirteen weeks, more than twice as many Americans have filed for unemployment than jobs gained during the last decade since the end of the Great Recession... (22.13 million gained in a decade, 45.714million lost in 13 weeks)....But, hey, there's good news... stocks are near record highs and Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin said he anticipates most of the economy will restart by the end of August. Finally, it is notable, we have lost 388 jobs for every confirmed US death from COVID-19 (117,717). Was it worth it? The big question remains - what happens when the $600 CARES Act bonuses stop flowing?"

The Fed Can't Revive the Dead, But It Can Delay Their Recovery -Tamny/Real Clear Markets
"Federal programs rarely die, mostly they grow, so it's a safe bet that money continues to flow into a part of the U.S. that remains at or close to the bottom of the U.S. in terms of economic opportunity. It's a reminder that governments can consume the wealth of others with abandon, but they can't force the wealth consumed to stay. Translated, investment is what drives economic progress....The inability of Congress to make prosperous what isn't requires mention ahead of any discussion of the Federal Reserve's efforts to buy individual corporate bonds. Up front, it should be made clear that the Fed's buying will prove superfluous....A Fed that's well exceeded its initial mandate as 'lender of last resort' to solvent banks is now, according to a Wall Street Journal editorial, planning to 'underwrite corporate debt to prevent a cascade of bankruptcies.' It will fail. Just as Congress can't force capital to remain where it's not treated well, the Fed can't force investors to buy that which is hopeless....In truth, the Fed cannot decree low rates for businesses, for individuals, or even governments....Subsidies enable delayed error realization. In short, the Fed's decision to underwrite corporate debt won't boost the economy, but could certainly hold it back."

'Uncle Tom' Documentary Explores What It's Like to Be a Minority Within a Minority Group, a Black Conservative -Newsweek
"For moviegoers curious to know what it's like being a minority within a minority - a black conservative, in this case - filmmakers are wrapping a documentary feature sure to be controversial not only for its content but also its title: Uncle Tom. The title, of course, comes from the name of the lead character in Harriet Beecher Stowe's seminal 1852 novel, Uncle Tom's Cabin, which portrays him as both hero and goat, as he gives his life to assist escaped slaves while acting subservient to the slaveholders. In modern times, the heroic part is widely ignored, though not in this movie, where some black conservatives are seen wearing the 'Uncle Tom' moniker as a badge of honor....'An Uncle Tom is someone who sold out and embraced the white man by rejecting the idea that you're a victim,' radio host Larry Elder says towards the top of the movie, a rough-cut of which was reviewed exclusively by Newsweek. Elder was initially one of the stars of the film, though he later came aboard as a writer and executive producer. The film, from director Justin Malone, also features former congressman Allen West, 2012 presidential candidate Herman Cain and TV pundit Candace Owens, who jokes that the most ridiculous thing she has been called is 'a black white supremacist.' The movie also stars a host of prominent people via news clips, including President Barack Obama, John Legend, Jay-Z, Denzel Washington and Trevor Noah....According to Pew Research, only about 8 percent of African Americans in the U.S. are registered Republicans, but Elder figures conservatives of every race are his demographic - and hopefully a few curious liberals, as well. 'The message could not be more important or more timely,' says Elder. 'Why does merely questioning the black allegiance to the Democratic party make you a 'sell-out,' a 'self-loather' or an 'Uncle Tom'?" Editor's Note: According to the film's website, www.UncleTom.com, the public can view several trailers or watch the entire 106 minute documentary 'on demand' for $19.95 starting Friday, June 19, 2020.

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6.18.20 - Gold Price to Break Record by Year-End

Gold last traded at $1,730 an ounce. Silver at $17.52 an ounce.

NEWS SUMMARY: Precious metal prices consolidated recent gains Thursday on mild profit-taking and a firmer dollar. U.S. stocks traded mostly lower after U.S. weekly jobless claims rose a higher-than-expected 1.5 million last week.

Gold price to break record by year-end -Hug/Kitco
"Gold prices could see 2011 highs of $1,920 an ounce or higher, said Peter Hug, global trading director of Kitco Metals, who noted that a full economic recovery won't materialize until later next year. While seasonal softness is expected for the yellow metal during the summer months, the medium term trajectory is still constructive, Hug said. 'Short-term, especially given the seasonal factors, [gold prices] have a bit of softness, but by year-end I think the 2011 high in gold, which is $1,920, will be there or higher,' he said. Pandemic fears are still far from over, Hug said, and many fundamental risks to economic growth are likely to remain until at least next year, noting that unemployment unlikely to fall below 10% by year-end, in contrast to the Federal Reserve's projection of 9% by year-end. Prolonged damage to the economy could see another correction in equities, he added, and should another correction take place for risk assets, gold may be pulled down with stocks before another rally were to take place. 'I don't think that would be bullish for the metals. I think the initial reaction for the metals would be lower as people begin to panic and start to raise cash,' he said."

money It's time to get rid of your $20 bills... -Black/Sovereign Man
"When values change, names change. Zambia used to be called Northern Rhodesia. But after they gained independence they no longer wanted to be named after their imperialist ruler. That's hardly controversial. Similarly, nearly every major city in India changed its name in the 1990s and early 2000s; Bombay became Mumbai, Calcutta became Kolkata, Madras became Chennai, etc., all to shake off their colonial roots. Again, this is perfectly reasonable. There's been a broad movement lately of people wanting to rename streets, bridges, airports, buildings, etc. And this too is hardly controversial. Our social values are remarkably different than they were when many of those landmarks were built. And it's not unusual for names to change to keep up with the times...(There IS, however, supposed to be a peaceful, democratic procedure to change names and remove monuments. Only a fool with no intelligent argument resorts to violence and vandalism.)....The problem with renaming stuff, however, is that it can be a bottomless rabbit hole. If we are supposed to judge everyone who has been dead for hundreds of years against the values that we hold dear today, then there really is no end. Just look at the currency of the United States: $1 bill-George Washington... who, despite being the single-most important factor in winning the American Revolution, also happened to be a slave owner. $2 bill- Thomas Jefferson... also a slave owner. $5 bill- Abraham Lincoln... who emancipated the slaves, yet also made numerous racist comments. $10 bill- Alexander Hamilton. Yes, he has a catchy musical in his honor that promotes him as an abolitionist. But Hamilton married into a prominent slave-owning family, handled transactions regarding the purchase of slaves on the family's behalf, and even once demanded that a runaway slave be returned to captivity. $20 bill- Andrew Jackson. HARDCORE racist. Major slave owner. (which means he'll probably be the first one to be replaced. So don't stock up on too many $20 bills"¦) $50 bill- Ulysses S. Grant... who actually fought (and won) the Civil War. Yet technically did own a slave at one point in his life. $100 bill- Benjamin Franklin... also a slave owner....The Commonwealth of Pennsylvania was named after the slave owner William Penn...The State of Louisiana is named after the King Louis XIV of France, who presided over the enslavement of countless natives across his global dominion. And let's not forget that the UNITED STATES OF AMERICA, along with two continents, are named after Amerigo Vespucci - a man who enslaved thousands of people. Do we rename cities and states? Do we rename the country?....So, yes, it's not unusual or controversial to rename anything. But to judge everyone from the past based on the values of today - there truly is no end to how much of history would need to be erased."

Dollar crash is almost inevitable -Roach/CNBC
"The stronger dollar era may be on borrowed time. Stephen Roach, one of the world's leading authorities on Asia, is worried a changing global landscape paired with a massive U.S. budget deficit will spark a dollar crash. 'The U.S. economy has been afflicted with some significant macro imbalances for a long time, namely a very low domestic savings rate and a chronic current account deficit,' the former Morgan Stanley Asia chairman told CNBC's 'Trading Nation' on Monday. 'The dollar is going to fall very, very sharply.' His forecast calls for a 35% drop against other major currencies. 'These problems are going from bad to worse as we blow out the fiscal deficit in the years ahead,' said Roach, a Yale University senior fellow....'At the same time, America is walking away from globalization and is focused on decoupling itself from the rest of the world,' said Roach. 'That's a lethal combination.' The big question: Will it happen quickly or gradually? His timeline is rough - over the next year or two, maybe more. However, Roach suggests a crash virtually inevitable, and it's a risk investors shouldn't ignore."

When Workers Can Live Anywhere, Many Ask: Why Do I Live Here? -Wall Street Journal
"The coronavirus is challenging the assumption that Americans must stay physically tethered to traditionally hot job markets - and the high costs and small spaces that often come with them - to access the best work opportunities. Three months into the pandemic, many workers find themselves in jobs that, at least for now, will let them work anywhere, creating a wave of movement across the country. Recessions tend to damp migration. Americans typically move with a new job already in hand, and hiring plummets during downturns. The 2008 financial crisis limited Americans' mobility because millions of homeowners found themselves underwater on their homes, unable to sell without taking a loss. But this time might be different. Home prices haven't yet taken a major hit. And the forces at play are novel. Confronted with the prospect of not being able to easily fly in for a visit with an elderly parent, grown children are suddenly questioning why they live so far away in the first place. Many newly remote workers are finding they prefer somewhere closer to family or fresh air. Others are giving up on leases they can't afford, chasing opportunities in states that are reopening faster or heading back to hometowns....Telecommuting is fueling many of the moves. Companies like Twitter Inc. and Facebook Inc. are already declaring their monthslong experiment with remote work a success, giving many workers permanent permission to detach themselves from the office. Other companies that just six months ago would have scoffed at letting employees work from home are embracing it. Still, not everyone expects to see millions of Americans packing their bags. 'It's obvious that the number of remote workers is going to jump up,' said Thomas Cooke, a demographic consultant who recently retired as a geography professor at the University of Connecticut. 'But it's not so clear-cut that it's going to be this huge transformation.'"

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6.17.20 - Time to Get Aggressive in Gold

Gold last traded at $1,735 an ounce. Silver at $17.72 an ounce.

NEWS SUMMARY: Precious metal prices traded mixed Wednesday on bargain-hunting despite a firmer dollar. U.S. stocks struggled for direction as investors were unclear whether or not the worst is over for the world's largest economy.

Now is the time to get aggressive in gold as Fed keeps rates at 0% until 2022 -Sprott CEO/Kitco
"The Federal Reserve is not looking to raise interest rates from its zero-bound target for the next two years and according to Peter Grosskopf, CEO of Sprott Inc., this is now the time for investors to be aggressive in the gold market. In an interview with Kitco News, Grosskopf said that in the current environment where inflation is expected to pick up in a low interest rate environment, a 5% to 10% allocation to gold will become a necessity for all investors; however, he added that he is a lot more comfortable holding 30% of his portfolio in gold. 'Eric Sprott would be a hundred percent weighted,' he said. 'I think it's time to be quite aggressive with your bullying allocations, just given how much of a credit crisis we're really still in.'....'We think that the central banks have no choice other than to anchor rates at zero for the foreseeable future. This is a long-term need for them now,' he said. To achieve their goal of lower-for-longer interest rates, Grosskopf said that it will only be a matter of time before the Federal Reserve embarks on a yield-curve-control program. He added that this will create a positive environment for gold....He said that he does not think that the optimism, for a sharp economic recovery, driving equity markets can be sustained."

inflation If Inflation Is Coming, the Market Isn't Ready -Wall Street Journal
"Investors are convinced that inflation will remain subdued, even as central banks and governments make unprecedented stimulus commonplace...A new inflationary era might be on the way, and if it is, the markets have got it completely wrong. There are two standard cases for inflation. The simple case is easy to understand and probably wrong for well-functioning modern economies: When central banks finance governments"¦well, duh. Zimbabwe, Venezuela, Weimar Republic, say no more. Just buy gold....This time the instruments are more extreme, but they are still reliant on lending by commercial banks to create private money. On its own, central-bank money creation merely swaps assets for central-bank reserves within the financial system. This leads into the second, more sophisticated argument for inflation, made by Russell Napier, an independent strategist and founder of research platform ERIC...who wrote a book about major market slumps. Napier now predicts inflation above 4% next year in developed markets due to government loan guarantees. Governments, he thinks, have finally found a way to ensure that commercial banks lend: promise to cover bad debts. Heads, the banks collect the (slim) interest; tails, the government ends up with the losses. Of course banks will lend. 'It's pure politicization of credit,' Mr. Napier said. 'This is the magic money tree.'....The downside is that the more the government is involved in supporting lending, the more pressure there is to direct the loans to politically popular causes, or at least away from unpopular ones....Inflation is both the result of out-of-control private money-creation financing consumption, and the easiest cure for excessive debt....The natural winners - gold and Treasury inflation-protected securities, known as TIPS - have performed very well this year."

Poll: Americans are the unhappiest they've been in 50 years -Associated Press
"It's been a rough year for the American psyche. Folks in the U.S. are more unhappy today than they've been in nearly 50 years. This bold - yet unsurprising - conclusion comes from the COVID Response Tracking Study, conducted by NORC at the University of Chicago. It finds that just 14% of American adults say they're very happy, down from 31% who said the same in 2018. That year, 23% said they'd often or sometimes felt isolated in recent weeks. Now, 50% say that. The survey, conducted in late May, draws on nearly a half-century of research from the General Social Survey, which has collected data on American attitudes and behaviors at least every other year since 1972. No less than 29% of Americans have ever called themselves very happy in that survey. Most of the new survey's interviews were completed before the death of George Floyd touched off nationwide protests and a global conversation about race and police brutality, adding to the feelings of stress and loneliness Americans were already facing from the coronavirus outbreak....The public is less optimistic today about the standard of living improving for the next generation than it has been in the past 25 years....About twice as many Americans report being lonely today as in 2018, and not surprisingly given the lockdowns that tried to contain the spread of the coronavirus, there's also been a drop in satisfaction with social activities and relationships....Jonathan Berney, of Austin, Texas, said that the pandemic - and his resulting layoff as a digital marketing manager for a law firm - caused him to reevaluate everything in his life. While he admits that he's not exactly happy now, that's led to another uncomfortable question: Was he truly happy before the pandemic? '2020 just fast forwarded a spiritual decay. When things are good, you don't tend to look inwards,' he said."

Avoiding a coronavirus second wave is up to each of us -New York Post
"No one really knows the odds of a second coronavirus wave as the nation leaves lockdown, but the best bet is that it depends on how people behave. Some states are seeing a rise in cases, which just crossed the 2 million mark nationwide. That's most often a reflection of more testing. But Arizona, for one, seems to be seeing an increase in the percentage of tests that come back positive - and that's true in scattered other areas, too. Overall, though, new cases nationally last week grew at the slowest rate since March. And many predictions of doom are falling far short: Pundits were sure Florida's restart, with even salons and gyms reopening, would lead to disaster. Hmm: Cases there have risen about 28 percent in the last two weeks - but testing is up 37 percent, so the key rate is falling. Most important, the national rates of hospitalizations and deaths also continue downward....The real bottom line: It's up to each of us and all of us to maintain social distancing and wear face masks when we can't, wash hands obsessively - and, yes, avoid large crowds. Now more than ever, the country's health is in its people's hands."

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6.16.20 - Gold: What Stock 'Disconnect' Implies

Gold last traded at $1,736 an ounce. Silver at $17.67 an ounce.

NEWS SUMMARY: Precious metal prices rose Tuesday on safe-haven buying despite a firmer dollar. U.S. stocks rose in volatile trading as investors cheered upbeat retail sales in May.

What Does The Great Disconnect Imply for Gold? -Yahoo Finance
"It seems that global stock markets have disconnected from the fundamental reality. They have been rising since the end of March despite the collapsing economies and soaring unemployment. Why? And what does it imply for the gold prices?....China - and Western countries as well - can forget about the V-shaped recovery...Instead, we could see a U-shaped recovery, which is deeper and more prolonged, or even a L-shaped recovery, which is even slower...Or, there might be actually a mix of V, U, and L: in some industries the recovery will be quicker, while in certain industries - think airlines - it will be slower. Another possibility is that the recovery will look like W, i.e., there will be a rebound in one or two quarters, followed by another dip because of the second wave of epidemic. The W-shaped recovery seems to be the most positive scenario for the gold market, as the second wave of injections would imply renewed worries and shaky economy....However, the performance of the global equity markets suggests that investors are rather optimistic about the future, at least this is the popular interpretation...We know that the stock market is not the real economy and that stock markets are forward-looking and do not want to fight the Fed, but the disconnect is troubling. After all, Mr. Market is not always correct - for example, it overlooked the risk of Covid-19 pandemic....The rebound in the S&P 500 was driven by selected few companies, i.e., Microsoft, Apple, Amazon, Alphabet, and Facebook - the relative winners during the Great Lockdown that forced people to shift into the online world. Moreover, the behavior of cyclical commodities and bond yields suggest rather weak recovery. What does it mean? Well, the fundamental outlook does not bode well for equity markets....investing in the stock market seems to be risky right now given that the V-shaped recovery is unlikely and given elevated equity valuations, so adding gold, which is good portfolio's diversifier, to the portfolio might be a smart move."

markets Schizophrenia? A Record 78% Of Wall Street Professionals Think Stocks Are Overvalued As They Flood Back Into Markets -Zero Hedge
"After two months of downright apocalyptic sentiment on Wall Street as revealed by the monthly Bank of America Fund Manager Surveys, the latest poll of 212 panelists managing $598 billion conducted by BofA Chief Investment Strategist Michael Hartnett showed a sharp reversal in sentiment with i) growth expectations jumping, ii) cash levels collapsing, and iii) risk appetites surging; Yet despite this surge in economic optimism, not even Wall Street's traditional bulls can reconcile just how far ahead the market has lept, with the largest number of investors since 1998 - some 78% of respondents - saying that the stock market is 'overvalued.' Also, even as doomsday sentiment ebbs, only 18% if Wall Street pros expect a V-shaped recovery vs 64% expecting U- or W-shaped according to the latest FMS; and while 37% now say 'it's a bull market', 53% majority still say 'it's a bear market rally'. According to Hartnett, sentiment shifted as GDP & EPS expectations jumped as lockdowns ended, resulting in a big drop in fears of prolonged recession which dropped to just net 46% in June (vs 93% in April)."

The Economic Consequences of Disrupted Global Supply Chains -Project Syndicate
"The strain on global supply chains partly reflects the turn by many governments toward protectionist policies since the openness of the world economy peaked in 2011. And now, the COVID-19 pandemic has caused a supply-shock recession. The related uncertainty may slow the expansion of global value chains by at least 35%. Indeed, world trade is no longer expanding faster than world GDP. If this continues, companies will reshore manufacturing from Asia and elsewhere. It's clear that shrinking production at firms worldwide will create a recession...Given the importance of broken supply relationships in the current downturn, this recession is likely to be unique. Firms are vulnerable in other ways. For example, suppliers affected by a lockdown impose substantial output losses on their customers when the input they produce is specific to the customer and embodies a high level of research and development and intellectual property. In such cases, switching to another supplier is costly and slow....It is also likely that this recession will generate lower trend GDP growth. After all, global supply chains were a major driver of productivity growth in many countries in the 1990s and for most the aughts....The pandemic poses a huge challenge to economic policymakers. Like it or not, engineering any recovery, much less a V-shaped one, will require governments to set aside issues that would be of utmost importance in ordinary times. Their credo should be Hippocratic: First, do no further harm."

Neighborhood-based friendships making a comeback for kids in the age of coronavirus -The Conversation
"I can't walk down the sidewalk without stepping on chalk drawings or hopscotch boards. There are children jumping rope and playing ball. In the eight years I've lived here, I've never witnessed this before. As a clinical psychologist who studies children's friendships, I am fascinated by this development. Children's social worlds have been upended by the suspension of school and extracurricular activities due to the pandemic. Many older children and adolescents have been able to maintain their friendships over social media. But, for younger children, this approach is less likely to be available to them and less likely to meet their social needs. In some places, a silver lining of COVID-19 may well be the resurgence of childhood friendships in American neighborhoods. Over the last 30 years, children's friendships have been largely forged in the classroom and during extracurricular activities...These settings provide not only an environment for learning, but also opportunities to make friends, learn about what is expected social behavior and build skills for social relationships. But in the not-too-distant past, children's friendships were formed and maintained within the American neighborhood. Friends on average lived less than a quarter-mile apart and were predominantly from the same neighborhood. Children who lived close to one another were found to have high-quality friendships that were more frequent, emotionally intimate and longer-lasting than those that did not. Research shows neighborhood-based play may have distinct advantages, as it is often characterized by mixed-age peer groups....Children with positive friendships feel less lonely, depressed and anxious and are less likely to get into trouble in their communities. In the coming months, encouraging children to find friendships close to home, may combat feelings of social isolation and support feelings of social fulfillment. For some parents, this may feel reminiscent of their own childhoods, when rousing outside games of kick the can or red rover were interrupted only by parents' shouts from the front porch that it was time for dinner. Parents can support a shift to neighborhood friendships by helping their children understand how to stay physically distant while socially and emotionally engaged...These approaches may allow children to ride out this crisis and, in the process, possibly revive the American neighborhood and revitalize the benefits of friendship that are found within it."

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6.15.20 - Investors Approaching Retirement Face Painful Decisions

Gold last traded at $1,734 an ounce. Silver at $17.53 an ounce.

NEWS SUMMARY: Precious metal prices eased back Monday on profit-taking as global stocks declined. U.S. stocks fell as investors grappled with signs of a second wave of coronavirus cases as the U.S. economy reopens.

"Just A Huge Bear Market Rally?" Stocks Tumble On Fears Of Second Virus Wave -Zero Hedge
"In a continuation of the selloff that started overnight, US equity futures and world stocks are plunging on Monday on signs that a second wave of the pandemic is emerging in parts of the United States and China, dousing investor hopes of a quick economic rebound that had powered the Nasdaq to record levels last week....After dropping as much as 1,000 points, Dow futures were down about 600 points at last check, with S&P futures dropping as much as 3.4% in early London trading in what some have dubbed "Meltdown Monday", although S&P 500 futures managed to trim their losses in half, last down about 1.6%. Travel stocks which were hit hard as passenger numbers dwindled due to travel restrictions, slumped on Monday with retail favorites such as United Airlines Holdings Inc, American Airlines Group, Carnival Corp, Norwegian Cruise Line Holdings Ltd and Royal Caribbean Cruises Ltd down between 5.1% and 7.4% in pre-market trading....'Any further sell off from here will likely see some larger unwinds of the more price and momentum driven investment styles,' said James Athey, a money manger at Aberdeen Standard Investments.'People will then start openly asking the question again,'Was that just a huge bear market rally?'"

gold survey Wall St., Main St. expect gold prices to keep on shining -Kitco
"Wall Street and Main Street look for gold prices to continue their recovery in the week ahead....The metal rose sharply last week as buying emerged on the price dip and accelerated around mid-week when equities corrected sharply lower and Federal Open Market Committee policymakers indicated that they don't envision hiking interest rates any earlier than 2022. Of the 14 Wall Street professionals who took part in this week's survey, none predicted gold would fall next week. Ten, or 71%, called for higher prices, while four respondents, or 29%, were either neutral or said they expect a sideways market. A total of 1,285 votes were cast in an online Main Street poll. Of these, 792 respondents, or 62%, looked for gold to rise in the next week. Another 308, or 24%, said lower, while 185, or 14%, were neutral....Sean Lusk, co-director of commercial hedging with Walsh Trading, said gold will be 'definitely up' for as long as the Federal Reserve keeps pumping money into the economy...He cautioned that there will be bouts of selling in the form of traders booking profits. However, he also looks for some market participants to use price dips as buying opportunities."

Investors Approaching Retirement Face Painful Decisions -Wall Street Journal
"The coronavirus pandemic has created a crisis that some economists believe could take the country nearly a decade to recover from. Individuals...now face perhaps one of the most difficult investing decisions they will make in their lifetimes: whether to wait out a potentially long rebound or exit the market altogether. Data from Fidelity Investments suggests millions of individuals have decided to do the latter. Nearly a third of investors ages 65 and up sold all of their stock holdings some time between February and May, compared with 18% of investors across all age groups....For the most part, financial planners and advisers recommend that individuals who are approaching retirement gradually reduce their exposure to riskier assets, like stocks, while increasing exposure to more conservative investments."

How should we fight racism? Not with Marxism -Ponte/WND
"Amid today's protests over African American George Floyd - likely murdered because of a personal vendetta by a white Minneapolis policeman - the Pentagon announced days ago that it is now 'open' to considering renaming 10 military bases named for Confederate generals and leaders. One is Fort Lee Army Base in Virginia, named for Confederate Gen. Robert E. Lee....Letting radicals re-write history, as in George Orwell's dystopian novel '1984,' gives them the power to make everything they disapprove of vanish. 'Those who control the present control the past,' wrote Orwell, '[and] those who control the past control the future.' History is written by the winners, but Italian Marxist Antonio Gramsci advocated control of schools, universities and media to brainwash the young to turn society Marxist. Poet Allen Ginsberg wrote, 'He who controls the symbols controls the race.' Today radicals destroy Confederate names and statues. House Speaker Nancy Pelosi wants more than a dozen statues in the Capitol destroyed. Pelosi's statues should be destroyed, not only because they depict Confederates and racists - but because all are of Democrats, the party of the slave owners and Ku Klux Klan....I am much less afraid of slave owners who died 100 years ago than I am of leftists trying to enslave us today. Wrote P.J. O'Rourke: 'Liberalism is just Marxism sold by the drink.'"

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6.12.20 - US 'Can't Shut Economy Down Again'

Gold last traded at $1,738 an ounce. Silver at $17.55 an ounce.

NEWS SUMMARY: Precious metal prices headed for their biggest weekly gain since April on a growing bearish economic outlook. U.S. stocks attempted to claw back some of the sharp losses from Wall Street's worst day since March.

As second wave hits, look for gold to breach $1,800 -Wagner/Kitco
"Gold prices could be expected to surpass the $1,800 an ounce mark by third or fourth quarter of this year, with near term signals remaining bullish, this according to Gary Wagner, editor of TheGoldForecast.com. Wagner's comments come as the Federal Reserve announced Wednesday to keep rates near zero until at least 2022, and stocks fall on fears of a second wave of the coronavirus. It is unlikely that economic growth will surprise to the upside anytime soon, forcing the Fed to change their dovish stance, Wagner said....Wagner noted that while an economic recovery is in the opening innings, we have yet to see the full repercussions of quantitative easing. 'Regardless of when they turn that switch, we have not even begun to encompass or feel that economic fallout that will come from the moves made by the Treasury department and the Federal Reserve,' he said. Meanwhile, a second wave of the virus has just been reported to begin sweeping across the U.S., as the overall count of infections has just passed 2 million. 'If there wasn't a second wave, I would be very surprised. I think there almost has to be because of the large masses of people that came together without masks, and without social distancing,' Wagner said, referencing the recent mass demonstrations taking place around the world in response to the death of George Floyd. Gold prices are showing upwards momentum, and this should continue until the end of the year, Wagner said."

uncle sam Mnuchin says US 'Can't shut down the economy again' if coronavirus has another spike -The Sun
"Treasury Secretary Steve Mnuchin said on Thursday the US should not shut down the economy again if there is another wave of the coronavirus outbreak. Mnuchin said Americans have 'learned that if you shut down the economy, you're going to create more damage.' He said on CNBC: 'Not just economic damage, but there are other areas and we've talked about this: medical problems and everything else that get put on hold.' 'We can't shut down the economy again.'...'I think it was very prudent what the president did, but I think we've learned a lot.'....A Reuters analysis released this week showed 21 states have seen spikes in coronavirus cases as businesses have started reopening. On Monday, a committee with the National Bureau of Economic Research determined the US economy entered a recession in February as the coronavirus pandemic hit the country. 'The unprecedented magnitude of the decline in employment and production, and its broad reach across the entire economy, warrants the designation of this episode as a recession," the panel said."

The Illusion of a Rapid US Recovery -Galbraith/Project Syndicate
"America's economy - based on global demand for advanced goods, consumer demand for frills, and ever-growing household and business debts - was in many ways prosperous. But it was a house of cards, and COVID-19 has blown it down....Demand for many US-made capital goods now depends on global conditions. Orders for new aircraft will not recover while half of all existing planes are grounded. At current prices, the global oil industry is not drilling new wells. Even at home, though existing construction projects may be completed, plans for new office towers or retail outlets won't be launched soon. And as people commute less, cars will last longer, so demand for them (and gasoline) will suffer. Faced with radical uncertainty, US consumers will save more and spend less...What they do not know is when the next job offer - or layoff - will come along...And the many millions of workers in America's vast services sector are realizing that their jobs are simply not essential. Meanwhile, US household debts - rent, mortgage, and utility arrears, as well as interest on education and car loans - have continued to mount...Falling sales- and income-tax revenues are prompting US state and local governments to cut spending, compounding the loss of jobs and incomes.America's economic plight is structural....'Reopen America' is therefore an economic and political fantasy. Incumbent politicians crave a cheery growth rebound, and the depth of the collapse makes possible some attractive short-term numbers. But taking them seriously will merely set the stage for a new round of disillusion."

Why coronavirus hits men harder -Science Magazine
"In January, one of the first publications on those sickened by the novel coronavirus in Wuhan, China, reported that three out of every four hospitalized patients were male. Data from around the world have since confirmed that men face a greater risk of severe illness and death from COVID-19 than women and that children are largely spared. Now, scientists investigating how the virus does its deadly work have zeroed in on a possible reason: Androgens - male hormones such as testosterone - appear to boost the virus' ability to get inside cells. A constellation of emerging data supports this idea, including COVID-19 outcomes in men with prostate cancer and lab studies of how androgens regulate key genes. And preliminary observations from Spain suggest that a disproportionate number of men with male pattern baldness - which is linked to a powerful androgen - end up in hospitals with COVID-19. Researchers are rushing to test already approved drugs that block androgens' effects, deploying them early in infection in hopes of slowing the virus and buying time for the immune system to beat it back. 'Everybody is chasing a link between androgens "¦ and the outcome of COVID-19,' says Howard Soule, executive vice president at the Prostate Cancer Foundation...Epidemiological data from around the world have confirmed the early reports of male vulnerability. In Lombardy in Italy, for example, men comprised 82% of 1591 patients admitted to intensive care units (ICUs) from 20 February to 18 March, according to a JAMA paper. And male mortality exceeded that of women in every adult age group in another JAMA study of 5700 New York City patients hospitalized with COVID-19....Women are being included in the trial, she adds, because they have androgens, although at lower levels than men, and because estrogens have been shown to help heal acute lung injury."

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6.11.20 - The Looming U.S. Bank Collapse

Gold last traded at $1,739 an ounce. Silver at $17.88 an ounce.

NEWS SUMMARY: Precious metal prices rose Thursday on safe-haven buying amid rising economic uncertainty. U.S. stocks fell sharply as coronavirus cases increased in some states, dashing investor hopes for a smooth reopening of the economy.

A Scramble for Gold Is Redrawing the Map of the Market -Wall Street Journal
"New York faces a gold rush after the pandemic threw precious-metal markets into disarray, setting off a scramble by traders to cut their losses. Bullion vaults approved by the Comex division of the New York Mercantile Exchange house a record 29.7 million troy ounces, according to FactSet data. Almost three quarters of that gold - weighing as much as nine, fully loaded Boeing 737-700 airplanes - has arrived in the past three months. The displacement was set off by dysfunction in the market in March and early April, caused by fears of a breakdown in ordinarily frictionless gold supply chains. It has reversed the normal flow of bullion from west to east, redrawing the map of the international gold market. Conventional gold routes could take months to resume because demand has been crimped in two major buyers of bullion, China and India. 'Gold has reached America from all over the world,' said Allan Finn, commodities director at Malca-Amit, a company that transports gold securely. 'The flows into New York are unprecedented.' The scramble to get gold to New York stemmed in part from the demand among U.S. investors for the precious metal, seen as a safe store of wealth by many. Gold prices have climbed almost 15% this year, and rose 1.3% Thursday to $1,745.30 a troy ounce."

chart We Have Reached The Silly Phase of the Bull Market -Calhoun/Real Clear Markets
"Have we entered a new bull market? Was the 35% pullback in the S&P 500 in March the fastest bear market in history? Or is this just a continuation of the bull market that started in 2009, interrupted by a rather large correction? Bull markets and bear markets are about behavior, about the human emotions of fear and greed. While we got a brief bout of fear in March, greed has since overwhelmed all sense, common and otherwise. What we're seeing in the casino"¦er, market"¦.today is not beginning of a bull market behavior. What has been going on in markets over the last two months is the most glorious episode of human greed I've seen since 1999...There are silly things going on, new 'traders' doing stupid things and getting away with it because that's what happens in the end stages of a bull market that has been going on for a decade. Hertz, the rental car giant, filed for bankruptcy on May 22 and its stock hit a low of $0.40 a few days later. Earlier this week it traded as high as $6.25. That's a gain of over 15 times your money if you bought at the low. In 12 days. Did Hertz cancel its bankruptcy? Did Hertz get a last minute rescue from the Trump administration? No and no. Hertz is still bankrupt. And my quick math says they have $19 billion in debt and maybe $15 billion in assets. The stock is almost certainly worth zero. And yet hundreds of millions of shares are changing hands every day. This is not investing....To get a real handle on the speculative activity you need to wander over to the options market. Option traders bought a stunning 35.6 million new call option positions last week with over half of that coming from small traders buying fewer than 10 contracts. According to Jason Goepfert of Sentimentrader, the last time that happened was in 2000. For those of you too young to remember, that was the top of the dot com bubble. Particularly galling - at least to me - is that some portion of this speculation was funded by taxpayers. Some of those stimulus checks Congress sent out - $290 billion of them - ended up in Robinhood or ETrade accounts....This is the silly phase of the bull market. It will end eventually and all these new 'investors' will discover that it isn't easy and stocks don't just go up."

Signs Stock Rally is Doomed to End After $21 Trillion Rebound -Bloomberg/Yahoo Finance
"As a sense of euphoria sweeps through global equity markets propelling stocks to regain $21 trillion in value from a March low, the asset class is looking increasingly frothy. While stock luminaries who had advocated for a bull zone look like winners in hindsight, the debate goes on about whether the rally is a bear market bounce, doomed to end. 'This rally is a function of government support being thrown behind the economy,' said Paul Sandhu, head of multi-asset quant solutions and client advisory for Asia Pacific at BNP Paribas Asset Management. 'There are key risks that could lead to more volatility ahead over the short term.'....'The risk of a correction will rise if investors continue to price in a rapid recovery, especially for sectors that are vulnerable to another wave of infections or an escalation of tensions between the U.S. and China,' said Tai Hui, chief Asia market strategist at JPMorgan Asset Management. In another sign that the rally is stretched, global share-price gains in the past month have purely come from multiple expansion as earnings forecasts have barely budged since May. Meanwhile, speculative excess has surged to the highest in at least 20 years among U.S. options traders, a negative for stocks over the medium term, according to Sundial Capital Research Inc."

The Looming Bank Collapse -Partnoy/The Atlantic
"The U.S. financial system could be on the cusp of calamity. This time, we might not be able to save it. After months of living with the coronavirus pandemic, American citizens are well aware of the toll it has taken on the economy: broken supply chains, record unemployment, failing small businesses. All of these factors are serious and could mire the United States in a deep, prolonged recession. But there's another threat to the economy, too. It lurks on the balance sheets of the big banks, and it could be cataclysmic. Imagine if, in addition to all the uncertainty surrounding the pandemic, you woke up one morning to find that the financial sector had collapsed. You may think that such a crisis is unlikely, with memories of the 2008 crash still so fresh. But banks learned few lessons from that calamity, and new laws intended to keep them from taking on too much risk have failed to do so....To prevent the next crisis, Congress in 2010 passed the Dodd-Frank Act. Under the new rules, banks were supposed to borrow less, make fewer long-shot bets, and be more transparent about their holdings...The reforms were well intentioned, but they haven't kept the banks from falling back into old, bad habits. After the housing crisis, subprime CDOs naturally fell out of favor. Demand shifted to a similar - and similarly risky - instrument, one that even has a similar name: the CLO, or collateralized loan obligation...There are more than $1 trillion worth of leveraged loans currently outstanding. The majority are held in CLOs....Unless you work in finance, you probably haven't heard of CLOs, but according to many estimates, the CLO market is bigger than the subprime-mortgage CDO market was in its heyday. The Bank for International Settlements...estimated the overall size of the CLO market in 2018 at $750 billion....There were more in April than ever before...It will only get worse from there....To prevent another crisis, we also need far more transparency, so we can see when banks give in to temptation. A bank shouldn't be able to keep $1 trillion worth of assets off its books."

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6.10.20 - Disconnect Between Wall St. and Main St.

Gold last traded at $1,731 an ounce. Silver at $17.99 an ounce.

NEWS SUMMARY: Precious metal prices steadied Wednesday on dollar weakness ahead of Fedspeak. U.S. stocks fell as investors await news on further stimulus from the central bank.

Federal Reserve Now Zimbabwe -Williams/USAWatchdog
"While the country was distracted with the Covid-19 lockdown and economic crisis, the Federal Reserve made a huge banking requirement change never before done in history. The Fed cut '. . . reserve requirement ratios to zero percent effective March 26, 2020. This action eliminated reserve requirements for all depository institutions.' What does this profound change mean? Economist John Williams says, 'The system is bankrupt, and they are just spending the money to prevent an immediate collapse as opposed to having it collapse right now. They have cut reserve rates back to 0%. The bailout of the banking system of the 'Great Recession' didn't work. So, now, they are just printing money and bailing out whatever they have to. People have done this throughout history including the Weimar Republic (Germany hyperinflation) and Zimbabwe (also had hyperinflation). . . . We effectively have a Zimbabwe Fed.' So, the Fed is going to print all the money it needs to bail out every bank that needs one? Williams says, 'That's exactly what they said they are going to do, and not only any bank, but any financial institution, the stock market, and with infinite money, you can do all sorts of things. But guess what? You also get a hyperinflation. They have crossed the line. That's why you want to own physical precious metals.' On the economy decimated by the forced Covid 19 lockdown, Williams, who is the founder of Shadowstats.com, computes data without all the accounting gimmicks to make things look better than they really are. Williams says, 'We have about 40 million unemployed... which is about a 40% unemployment rate (using Shadowstats.com methods) and not 13% claimed by the government.... The pandemic collapsed economy took very heavy hits. The April numbers on industrial production had its worst drop in its 101 year history....Williams says not to worry about the hits on price crashing manipulations on gold and silver, especially in the face of massive record money printing. Williams says, 'The price manipulation is to try to kill it. Central banks hate gold (and silver) because it shows they are not doing their job. I measure unemployment the way it used to be measured by the government, and I also measure the way inflation used to be measured....Gold kept up with actual inflation and your actual out of pocket expenses. Gold is going up right along with real inflation."

dolalrs A Crash in the Dollar Is Coming -Roach/Bloomberg
"The era of the U.S. dollar's 'exorbitant privilege' as the world's primary reserve currency is coming to an end...Already stressed by the impact of the Covid-19 pandemic, U.S. living standards are about to be squeezed as never before. At the same time, the world is having serious doubts about the once widely accepted presumption of American exceptionalism. Currencies set the equilibrium between these two forces - domestic economic fundamentals and foreign perceptions of a nation's strength or weakness. The balance is shifting, and a crash in the dollar could well be in the offing....The culprit: exploding government budget deficits. According to the bi-partisan Congressional Budget Office, the federal budget deficit is likely to soar to a peacetime record of 17.9% of gross domestic product in 2020 before hopefully receding to 9.8% in 2021....Intense downward pressure is now building on already sharply depressed domestic saving. Compared with the situation during the global financial crisis, when domestic saving was a net negative for the first time on record, averaging -1.8% of national income from the third quarter of 2008 to the second quarter of 2010, a much sharper drop into negative territory is now likely, possibly plunging into the unheard of -5% to -10% zone. And that is where the dollar will come into play...Reserve currency or not, the dollar will not be spared under these circumstances."

May 2020 Jobs Report Highlights Disconnect Between Wall Street, Main Street -Bonner/Rogue Economics
"It was like waking up from a bad dream. As if the last 90 days had never happened...No COVID-19"¦ no lockdown"¦ no 20 million job losses"¦ no market crash"¦ no $3 trillion in new money-printing"¦ no $4 trillion budget deficit"¦But on Friday, we opened our eyes"¦ and thank God, the nightmare had come to an end"¦ There, in the headlines"¦ everything was back to normal. The Dow, the S&P 500, the Nasdaq, bonds"¦ all just as we left them in February. Birds were singing in the trees, restaurants were full of diners, the sun was shining"¦ even the price of oil was back up to $40. And in the seven hours of trading time from 9 a.m. to 4 p.m., ET, on Friday, June 5, 2020, an investor with $100,000 in Dow stocks made $3,150, or $450 per hour. But wait. In that same time, a waitress in Tennessee would have made $91"¦ if her restaurant had not been shut down by order of the feds. One country. Two systems. One of those systems is open for business, and - thanks to 'whatever it takes' in new money from the Federal Reserve - is 'recovering' nicely, thank you very much. But the other? The people who have to work for a living. The people who don't own stocks. How are they doing?....If you look only at Wall Street, you'd think all that has happened over the last three months was just a bad dream. But in the real, Main Street economy? The nightmare continues."

How the Protests Have Changed the Pandemic -Dr. Khullar/New Yorker
"Mass gatherings, even those held outdoors, even with precautions, are potential super-spreader events - opportunities for a virus to explode through a population. In the past week, tens of thousands of Americans have taken to the streets in scores of cities to protest racial injustice and police brutality; by Wednesday, more than nine thousand had been arrested. Many of the cautious, phased reopening plans state governments had put in place have been upended. As a matter of racial justice, the case for protest is unequivocal: Floyd's killing was grotesque, and the latest in a series. From a public-health perspective, however, the situation is more complex. Fragile progress toward containing the coronavirus has been threatened. Last month, we debated how far the virus could travel when we speak loudly, and how close together tables at restaurants should be; this month, we may learn how much virus is expelled from the nose and mouth when pepper spray irritates the lungs. Even before the protests, confirmed coronavirus cases were holding steady or increasing in many parts of the country - including in cities such as Minneapolis, Los Angeles, and Atlanta, which saw some of the largest protests. Last week, Minnesota recorded its highest single-day covid-19 death toll to date. The state's health commissioner, Jan Malcolm, warned that the protests would 'very predictably accelerate the spread' of the coronavirus; the mayor of Atlanta, Keisha Lance Bottoms, advised demonstrators that they 'probably need to go get a covid test this week.'....As a doctor who is caring for those who are seriously ill with covid-19, I find myself returning to the words 'I can't breathe.' Eric Garner and George Floyd said them; they're also uttered each day by many covid-19 patients...The urgency with which we've striven to mitigate the pandemic's social and economic damage - to reopen salons, to restart schools, to hold sporting events, to dine in restaurants, to soothe investors, to support businesses - has not inspired a similar societal commitment to reduce our gaping health disparities."

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6.9.20 - Forget Stocks, Gold is the Way to Go

Gold last traded at $1,719 an ounce. Silver at $17.77 an ounce.

NEWS SUMMARY: Precious metal prices traded sharply higher Tuesday on safe haven buying and a weaker dollar. U.S. stocks fell as investors took some money off the table amid a recession caused by the coronavirus pandemic.

Forget Stocks, The Gold Short Squeeze Is Intensifying -Seeking Alpha
"Is what's happening now in equities the mirror universe of the dotcom bubble of 20 years? It looks that way to Jim Bianco, head of Bianco Research, interviewed by Jim Grant of Grant's Interest Rate Observer last week....20 years ago, retail investors were indeed chasing upside momentum in tech stocks. Now, they are chasing momentum to the downside....After all, if you're a bank and you have all this new money from the Federal Reserve, where are you going to put it? In the real economy now rioting and destroying small businesses? Or back directly into financial assets being supported by the Federal Reserve? So, yes, the S&P 500 and Nasdaq are rallying because there's nowhere else for the new money to go right now. Even so, I'm not keen on playing the indexes here as I have done in the past. I'd rather buy the recent weakness in gold....The gold bull market since 2015 is only just getting started, and that is the way to go considering the wild uncertainties in the world today....The bullion banks are now being squeezed by speculators demanding delivery, and miners withholding supply."

recession The U.S. entered a recession in February, according to the official economic arbiter -CNBC
"The worst U.S. downturn since the Great Depression is now officially a recession, according to the National Bureau of Economic Research. Though it seemed a foregone conclusion, the NBER, the official arbiter of recessions, made the declaration Monday as the nation tries to recover from the coronavirus pandemic. 'The committee recognizes that the pandemic and the public health response have resulted in a downturn with different characteristics and dynamics than prior recessions,' the NBER's Business Cycle Dating Committee said in a statement. In making the declaration, the committee determined that a 'clear peak in monthly economic activity' occurred in February. The peak in quarterly activity happened in the fourth quarter of 2019....U.S. GDP fell 5% in the first quarter and is likely to post the worst decline in history for the second quarter - possibly more than 50%. The recession brings to an end the longest expansion in U.S. history, which the NBER, a private, nonprofit research organization, dated as lasting 128 months, or nearly 11 years."

Virus, Unemployment, Riots: When Shocks Multiply, the Effects Usually Last -Wall Street Journal
"When does a country reach a tipping point - a point when the citizenry concludes that things are simply spinning out of control, and that something different is required? The question arises as protests and looting spread across America in the wake of the brutal police killing of a black man - shocking scenes that have come atop a once-in-a-century pandemic and a Depression-like economic slide. In a moment of crisis, it's hard to tell when such events will simply fade away in a return to the status quo, and when they will produce lasting change in political and social structures. Yet a look back at recent history suggests that it is precisely at moments like this, when shocks pile on in succession from different directions, that Americans can choose a new course. 'Nothing is more difficult for the historian than to differentiate the ephemeral from the lasting events, even with the advantage of hindsight,' says historian Ron Chernow...He adds, 'My guess is that we are seeing a situation that is of the deep and lasting variety.'....A look back at two recent moments in American history may offer some guidance. They came in 1968 and 1979, both times when, like today, the jolts to the American system seemed to come in waves. In 1968, the Vietnam War was going badly, and the conflict hung over the country like a dark cloud....A similar feeling of helplessness took hold in 1979, during Jimmy Carter's presidency. A brutal period of 'stagflation' - simultaneously high economic stagnation and inflation - was clobbering the nation....Perhaps feelings of economic inequality and racial injustice are combining before our eyes to produce a turn to the left politically. Or perhaps Americans will simply demand a better performance from the whole political system...'Relations are so poisonous and so polarized between the parties that we are not seeing the kind of bipartisan meetings on Capitol Hill that typically occur at times of crisis. Hence, the feeling of things spiraling out of control,' says Mr. Chernow."

Sizing The Commercial Real Estate Bust -Zero Hedge
"So how big is the impending commercial real estate bust in the US? Bigger than the residential mortgage bust of the 2000s and also bigger than the commercial real estate wipe out of the 1990s, including the aftermath of the Texas oil boom of the late 1970s and 1980s. Commercial real estate as a mortgage asset class is half the size of the $11.5 trillion market for residential homes, but the losses this cycle could be far larger per dollar of assets. That's big. Both markets are fundamentally affected by interest rates above all. The US has not experienced a really nasty deflation in commercial real estate prices since the 1990s and, before that, the bust in the Texas oil patch in the late-1970s....Equity REITs own more than $2 trillion of physical real estate assets in the U.S. including more than 200,000 properties in all 50 states and the District of Columbia, NAREIT reports. This particular bust in commercial property is very different from the 1990s, but in common with that era also includes a large energy component. The difference is that, due to COVID19 and the more recent looting in major cities, the valuation of once solid urban commercial and residential properties held by equity REITs is now very in much question....The New York Times reports, 'Faced with plunging sales that have already led to tens of millions of layoffs, companies are trying to renegotiate their office and retail leases - and in some cases refusing to pay - in hopes of lowering their overhead and surviving the worst economic downturn since the Great Depression....We think that net charge offs on commercial loans could rise to 2-3x the peaks of the 1990s, with loss rates at 100% percent or more in some cases, and remain elevated for years for come as the workout process proceeds."

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6.8.20 - Stock Surge Not Helping Many Americans

Gold last traded at $1,703 an ounce. Silver at $17.89 an ounce.

NEWS SUMMARY: Precious metal prices rose Monday on bargain-hunting and a weaker dollar. U.S. stocks rose amid optimism over the economy reopening.

'Misclassification error' made the May unemployment rate look better than it is. -Washington Post
"When the U.S. government's official jobs report for May came out on Friday, it included a note at the bottom saying there had been a major 'error' indicating that the unemployment rate likely should be higher than the widely reported 13.3 percent rate. The special note said that if this 'misclassification error' had not occurred, the 'overall unemployment rate would have been about 3 percentage points higher than reported,' meaning the unemployment rate would be about 16.3 percent for May. The Bureau of Labor Statistics, the agency that puts out the monthly jobs reports, said it was working to fix the problem. 'BLS and the Census Bureau are investigating why this misclassification error continues to occur and are taking additional steps to address the issue,' said a note at the bottom of the Bureau of Labor Statistics report....The BLS admitted that some people who should have been classified as 'temporarily unemployed' during the shutdown were instead misclassified as employed but 'absent' from work for 'other reasons.'....Economists said the big takeaway is that it's hard to collect real-time data during a pandemic and that while the unemployment rate remains high - likely more than 16 percent - it has declined a little from April....Economists wish people would focus on the fact that 21 million Americans are currently unemployed and over 2 million have permanently lost their jobs."

gold coin First U.S. Gold Coin May Fetch $15 Million in Private Sale -Bloomberg
"One of the world's most coveted coins is coming to the market. The Brasher Doubloon, the first gold coin struck in the U.S., is being offered privately at a $15 million asking price, according to numismatic adviser Jeff Sherid. His firm, Los Angeles-based PCAG Inc., is marketing the coin on behalf of a collector he would only identify as a former Wall Street executive. The doubloon is dated 1787 - 11 years after the Declaration of Independence was signed, the same year the Constitution was written and five years before the federal mint opened in Philadelphia. Metalsmith Ephraim Brasher, George Washington's next-door neighbor on New York's Cherry Street, privately minted a small batch of the coins and punched this unique version with his hallmark 'EB' on the eagle's breast. The soon-to-be president almost certainly handled it, according to longtime numismatist John Albanese, founder of Certified Acceptance Corp....Uncertainty surrounding the coin's original purpose adds to its mystique. Historians believe it may have been intended for circulation, though some theorize it could have been a prototype or souvenir. Seven examples survive but the others, including one in the Smithsonian, are stamped on the eagle's wing rather than in the middle. The coin also has a place in pop culture. Private eye Philip Marlowe hunted it in Raymond Chandler's 1942 novel 'The High Window' and a subsequent movie version, 'The Brasher Doubloon'....The auction record for a single coin was set in 2013, when a 1794 Flowing Hair silver dollar sold for $10 million. The Brasher Doubloon will probably become the first $100 million coin someday, Albanese predicts."

Wall Street's latest surge isn't benefiting many Americans -CNBC
"While the U.S. economy is showing signs of life as businesses reopen and job growth rebounds, the gap between the real economy and the stock market remains unusually wide. 'The words recession and recovery can't begin to capture the magnitude of pain trigger(ed) by this crisis and the risks that widespread suffering will persist if we can't blunt the headwinds still ahead,' wrote Grant Thornton chief economist Diane Swonk....'Even with the mild improvement in May, the unemployment rate of all groups is still higher than the highest level the overall unemployment rate hit at the height of the Great Recession, when it reached 10.0% in 2009,' said Elise Gold, senior economist at the Economic Policy Institute....'Research has shown that historically higher unemployment rates, lower wages, higher poverty rates, and lower liquid savings make job losses even more devastating for African American workers and their families,' Gold said....'There's a lot of people that got out of this market and are staying out, making the assumption that we either have to test that low again or things are actually going to get worse, not better,' said Art Hogan, chief market strategist at National Securities."

What Leading with Optimism Really Looks Like -Harvard Business Review
"When there is negative news everywhere you look and unprecedented financial and logistical challenges facing so many companies, it can be tough to advise people to stay positive. Many leaders we work with worry, especially now during the global pandemic, that trying to emphasize positivity and happiness will make them look out of touch - and rather than helping their people, it will backfire. The findings from our multi-year research project at a hospital system in Iowa indicate quite the opposite. It's precisely in the midst of a setback or challenging time, that leaders should be actively encouraging positivity because it will help teams weather the storm. Three years ago, Genesis Health System, which is comprised of five hospitals and a regional health center, was not profitable...Jordan Voigt, president of Genesis Medical Center-Davenport was facing a conundrum. He wanted to infuse more positivity into the culture at the medical center, but they were about to undergo two rounds of massive cost reductions and layoffs. Still, he felt it was important to focus on the company's culture and hypothesized that positivity could help the center at this crucial time...Each department designed positive changes tailored to their subculture spanning from gratitude exercises, increased praise and recognition from managers, and team-based conscious acts of kindness. The color 'orange' was adopted to symbolize positive changes...When moms have new babies, the staff give the big brothers and sisters plush orange frogs called baby Sparks as a symbol of the kind character of the department. Employees receive a Spark Award for spreading happiness through a kind act. You can even find orange hair nets and orange oxygen carts in some departments....As happiness researchers, we expected the departments exposed to the interventions to do better, but even we were surprised by the extent. For the individuals who had not yet been exposed to the positive intervention, only 23% of the team members reported they were 'very expressive of optimism at work.' That jumped to 40% after participating in the positive psychology culture training....Even in the face of dire circumstances, you can create a positive mindset at your company - one that will help your people and your customers."

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6.5.20 - Did CV-19 Lockdown Help Fuel Riots?

Gold last traded at $1,685 an ounce. Silver at $17.47 an ounce.

NEWS SUMMARY: Precious metal prices dipped Friday on profit-taking and a firmer dollar. U.S. stocks rallied after the latest U.S. jobs report raised hopes that the economy is starting to recover from the coronavirus pandemic.

Dollar at Risk of a Hyperinflationary Collapse -Corsi Nation
"The ultimate fate of the current U.S. dollar is now at serious risk of a hyperinflationary collapse, with the COVID-19 pandemic crisis providing the trigger. This warning is being sounded by economist John Williams, the creator of the widely followed website ShadowStats.com. 'Decades of gross financial mismanagement by the federal government, gross monetary system mismanagement by the Federal Reserve, and conflicted, albeit related joint government and Fed mismanagement of the economy and banking system are being laid bare, exposed by the COVID-19 pandemic shutdown of the U.S. economy and related societal turmoil,' Williams wrote in his subscription newsletter published on June 4, 2020. As a traditional economist, Williams worries that the recent multi-trillion dollars spent in various federal stimulus programs amounts to a simple formula for inflation: namely, too much money thrown at too few goods tends to trigger rising prices. Williams notes Consumer Price Index (CPI) inflation in the United States from 1970, the last year of the gold-backed U.S. dollar, to date has been 561 percent. At the same time, the increase in the U.S. dollar price of gold from 1970 to date has been 4,314 percent....'When a currency is debased, precious metals function as stores of wealth,' Williams warns. 'Over the millennia, gold and silver have served investors - those holding the physical precious metals - with a stable, liquid and portable store of wealth against inflation or monetary turmoil, as well as often providing a vehicle for financial and personal survival in times of political and social upheaval.'....Williams concluded his analysis commenting that gold and silver prices remain the 'canary in the coal mine' of hyperinflation,' especially in the economics of the current COVID19 pandemic, when Congress contemplating multi-trillion dollar 'economic stimulus' laws seems strangely business as normal."

bullish Breaking Bad - Valuations Are Screaming "Danger" -Zero Hedge
"I am surprised how effective central banks have been in squeezing markets higher again. I thought after 10 years of this monetary nonsense they would finally lose effectiveness in their ability to manipulate markets. Clearly I was wrong. But then I also didn't see $3 trillion in Fed balance sheet expansion coming in a matter of a few months. So one has to clearly acknowledge central banks continue to hold complete control over these markets. But it comes at a price that will remain ignored for now, but nevertheless I'm aiming to highlight some of the issues I see. In my view central banks, in their quest to conduct a successful rescue operation, are killing the patient in the process....The distortions have become more extreme than expected and can be seen and measured in a number of ways. First off, the most obvious but also most ignored: Valuations are SCREAMING danger: Yesterday stocks closed at 145.6% market cap to GDP...These are not only historically extreme valuations they are also entirely incompatible with any valuation history in context of the economic backdrop we have: 20% unemployment, massively regressive earnings, you name it. And the layoff announcements keep coming...2020 has seen the largest expansion in wealth inequality yet. Jay Powell may deny all he wants that the Fed's policies are contributing to wealth inequality, but that's just a lie....If he hasn't noticed, but America is Breaking Bad. While the current protests in America were triggered by a specific event, the horrid killing of George Floyd, the protests represent something deeper: Anger and anxiety and a sense of injustice in general....The protests on the streets of America are the real economy and the voices we're hearing are saying: We can't breathe....This rally is crystal blue meth. Consider with caution."

Did COVID-19 Lockdown Orders Help Fuel Riots Nationwide? -Reason
"Millions of people out of a job and stuck at home for months is a recipe for civil unrest. The lockdown orders imposed by America's governors and mayors already inspired one wave of 'reopen' protests explicitly aimed at lifting those restrictions. There's also good reason to think these same heavy-handed shelter-in-place mandates helped to fuel the anti-police protests currently sweeping the nation....This basic play-by-play - where protests spring up in response to the police killing of an unarmed black man, and then later degenerate into riots and violent police crackdowns - is hardly unheard of in recent American history. In 2014, we had Ferguson. This was followed by the Baltimore riots a year later. Neither required a global pandemic nor a near-total shutdown of the economy to happen. And yet, while these killings sparked large-scale 'Black Lives Matter' protests across the country, serious rioting and property damage were mostly contained to the cities where the shootings actually happened. Not so in the case of the Floyd killing, which has prompted intense protests, riots, and police violence in almost every major American city....Given the circumstances leading up to these protests and riots, this probably shouldn't be surprising. Jobless claims passed the 40 million mark last week....Business closures also mean that there are fewer shopkeepers keeping an eye on their stores, and fewer patrons out on the street, all of whom could play some role in suppressing violence just by being out, about, and law abiding. That leaves the police as the only feasible means of law enforcement. Given the anti-police nature of the protests and the cops' own penchant for overreaction, that's obviously going to escalate things further....Government lockdowns have shuttered much more of the economy than was necessary, and have kept it closed for longer than it needed to be. That might not have caused the current wave of protests and riots, but it has almost certainly helped fuel them."

The Season of the 'Gray Champion' Arrives! -Medium
"Do you feel like America is progressing from one crisis to the next? Are we headed toward tragedy, or triumph?....By studying American history, economic cycles, psychology and a variety of ancient wisdom traditions, authors William Strauss and Neil Howe draw amazing parallels between the four seasons in nature and the four seasons (or generations) in a typical human lifespan in their 1997 bestselling book The Fourth Turning...According to Strauss and Howe the cycle of Four "˜Turnings' follow this sequence; 'First comes a 'High', a period of confident expansion as a new order takes root after the old order has been swept away. Next comes an 'Awakening', a time of spiritual exploration and rebellion against the now-established order. Then comes an 'Unraveling', an increasingly troubled era in which individualism triumphs over crumbling institutions. Last comes a 'Crisis' - the Fourth Turning - when society passes through a great and perilous gate in history. Together, the four turnings comprise history's seasonal rhythm of growth, maturation, entropy, and rebirth.' Amazingly these four 'turnings' repeat every 80-90 years throughout American history....The Fourth Turning, or Crisis era historically can be sparked either by a succession of seemingly small events, or by one major event such as; a fiscal crisis, a terrorist attack, or a pandemic which could lead to a mandatory quarantine. And in recent years we've seen all three occur!....A generation ago the authors announced their best hope for a positive outcome in the next Crisis era, would come from the bottom up, not the top down - and be led by a growing army of wise, modern elders from the Baby Boomer generation....'During The Fourth Turning America will need to embrace both personal sacrifice and a restoration of public authority,' according to Strauss and Howe. 'Whichever political party can best accommodate both will be best suited to lead.' This is particularly relevant given that 2020 is an major election year....'Raising the savings rate in both private and public sector are vital, as well as diversification of assets so that no one market crisis can wipe out your wealth.' Holding assets with intrinsic value, such as physical gold and silver, is a wise means of preserving wealth for future generations. 'Think of your family as your ultimate fourth turning safety net,' Strauss and Howe advise. 'As public support weakens, family support will become vital.'....Yes, the season of the famed American writer Nathanial Hawthorne's Gray Champion is now upon us. May we rise to the occasion with a fresh sense of destiny and renewed compassion toward our posterity."

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6.4.20 - America: Marked by Emergency, Unrest

Gold last traded at $1,725 an ounce. Silver at $18.10 an ounce.

NEWS SUMMARY: Precious metal prices rose on bargain-hunting and a sharply weaker dollar. U.S. stocks drifted lower on downbeat jobs data which may prompt more central bank stimulus.

Gold Prices Are Headed for New Highs Amid Unrest. What Investors Should Do. -Barrons
"As America burns, gold shines. The traditional feel-good asset in times of economic duress is nearing a 52-week high as protests continue to erupt across the nation in response to the recent death of George Floyd while he was in police custody in Minneapolis....So far, the financial markets have mostly shrugged off the protests. Major stock indexes are still advancing, but there are emerging signs in gold trading, and even with the Cboe Volatility Index, or VIX, that some investors are preparing for more difficult days. In the options market, investors have amassed GLD ETF call positions in September 2020, likely positioning for volatility to tick higher in one of the most tumultuous months of the trading year....To be sure, GLD is always a strange creature to trade....GLD's options tend to always indicate a bullish bias and a bearish bias. The peculiarity reflects the always passionate debate about the true value of gold...We know investors are concerned about the global economy, civil unrest, and the future of monetary policy. All of that leads them to gold, which should bode well for anyone who is positioned into the historically volatile fall trading months."

unemployment America: Marked by Health Emergency, Economic Recession, Social Unrest -Bonner/Rogue Economics
"A health crisis"¦ an economic meltdown"¦ and now a social breakdown! Half of the U.S. states have called out the National Guard. The President went into hiding in an underground bunker...Riots, protests, looting - 4,400 people arrested, as the president urges local government to 'get tough.' What gives?....You'll remember our dictum: 'When the money goes, everything goes.' Huh? You wonder. What's this got to do with money? Isn't this just about racism and police brutality? In short, we wish....Now every crisis, every calamity, and every disaster, caused by the feds themselves, will be met with more money-printing"¦ and more war. The war on terror"¦ the Mortgage Finance Crisis of '08-'09"¦ the war on COVID-19 "¦ Each time, the feds go back to doing the only thing they know how to do"¦ the only thing that increases their power and enriches their friends - running the printing press. And each time, they make the situation worse. The current round of riots and lawlessness, for example, are probably not just a reaction to another killing by the police...Instead, they are an inchoate reaction by millions of Americans to an inherently corrupt and unfair system....Money represents time"¦ and life. And when people can't trust it, they lose faith in their institutions, in the system, and in each other. The center cannot hold. The masses become more extreme in their opinions"¦ some wanting to tear down the 'capitalistic' system"¦ others wanting to protect it at all cost....As the money-printing continues and the financial calamity worsens, it will cause more and more dissension, kvetching, and insurrection"¦ This will lead to more softening in the center and hardening on the edges. Riots are inevitable. Lawlessness is just part of the process. It gives the authorities another 'war' to fight"¦ another reason to assert their authority"¦ and spend more money...and to put the nation under house arrest."

A lost decade looms for America's economy -Riley/CNN Business
"It could take the US economy most of the next decade to recover from the coronavirus pandemic, the Congressional Budget Office said on Monday. The CBO warns in a new analysis that the pandemic will reduce cumulative economic output over the next 10 years by $7.9 trillion, or 3% of GDP during the decade, compared to its projections from January. Without accounting for inflation, the damage totals $15.7 trillion, or 5.3% of GDP. Recent legislation, which includes more than $2 trillion in stimulus, will only partially mitigate the economic fallout caused by the pandemic, the CBO said....The report from the highly respected government number crunchers further challenges hopes for a speedy economic recovery from the pandemic, which had been a common talking point in the early days of the crisis....The 2008 global financial crisis took a much smaller bite out of GDP than what experts expect to see as a result of the pandemic. But 10 years after the Great Recession began, labor force participation rates for prime-age workers remained depressed in the United States, and household wealth had only started to recover. Neil Shearing, the group chief economist at Capital Economics, said that most major economies are in a similar position....'Most economies are still likely to be below their pre-virus paths of GDP by the end of our central forecast horizon in 2022,' he wrote in a research note on Monday. Shearing cited three big reasons why a recovery in high frequency data doesn't tell the whole story. Reason 1: The recovery follows an extreme economic shock. 'The fact that activity is recovering needs to be seen in this context of the huge loss of output incurred during lockdowns. Output in most major economies is still running at somewhere between 15% and 25% of pre-virus levels.' Reason 2: High frequency data doesn't tell us much about what's going on with demand - one of the biggest factors in any rebound....Reason 3: Governments and central banks still need to figure out how to transition from crisis mode to recovery, and to reopen their economies in ways that don't do more damage."

Alternative Community: Devotion at the Center -CAC.org
"As Martin Luther King, Jr. (1929-1968) observed, 'one of the most segregated hours in the United States still occurs on Sunday mornings when we attend church services.' Yet as early as the 1940s, African-American writer Howard Thurman (1899-1981) was seeking to build a worshiping community across racial differences. In 1944, along with his white co-pastor Alfred Fisk (1905-1959), Thurman co-founded the Church for the Fellowship of All Peoples, the country's first interracial, interfaith congregation. Reverend Thurman describes how the collective experience of God became the center of the community's life, unifying people from many different backgrounds and cultural expressions. 'Fellowship Church was a unique idea, fresh, untried. There were no precedents and no traditions to aid in structuring the present or gauging the future. Yet [my wife] Sue and I knew that all our accumulated experiences of the past had given us two crucial gifts for this undertaking: a profound conviction that meaningful and creative experiences between peoples can be more compelling than all the ideas, concepts, faiths, fears, ideologies, and prejudices that divide them; and absolute faith that if such experiences can be multiplied and sustained over a time interval of sufficient duration any barrier that separates one person from another can be undermined and eliminated. We were sure that the ground of such meaningful experiences could be provided by the widest possible associations around common interest and common concerns. Moving out from this center of spiritual discovery many fresh avenues of involvement emerged....The sense of Presence was being manifest which in time would bring one to his or her own altar stairs leading each in [their] own way like Jacob's ladder from earth to heaven....What had I learned about love? One of the central things was that the experience of being understood by another was of primary importance. Somewhere deep within was a 'place' beyond all faults and virtues that had to be confirmed before I could run the risk of opening my life up to another. To find ultimate security in an ultimate vulnerability, this is to be loved.'"

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6.3.20 - Politicians Are The Biggest Looters

Gold last traded at $1,704 an ounce. Silver at $17.95 an ounce.

NEWS SUMMARY: Precious metal prices eased back Wednesday on profit-taking and rising investor risk appetite. U.S. stocks rose on better-than-expected economic data bolstered by optimism over the recovery from coronavirus shutdowns.

The secret behind gold's stunning surge -Yahoo Finance
"Go figure. The otherwise safe-haven known as gold is rallying right alongside an equities markets surprisingly chock-full of momentum even as protests sweep the U.S. and deaths from COVID-19 continue to climb. Or is it really a shock to see gold prices with an upside bias right now as investors bid up equities? 'Both asset classes are responding well to the fiscal and monetary stimulus programs that have been put out since the COVID-19 crisis in March. It's the same exact playbook we saw in 2008 when after the financial crisis we saw similar extremely high levels of stimulus put into the market, which benefited both the stock market and gold,' said GraniteShares CEO Will Rhind on Yahoo Finance's The First Trade...The price of the yellow metal has rocketed by 18% over the past six months. Besides government stimulus lighting a fire under gold, the recent plunge in the U.S. dollar is also supporting the commodity's market pros say. In such a dollar weakening backdrop, gold is usually viewed as a good store of value. Experts like Rhind believe the gold rally has legs left. 'You go all the way back to 1980, which was the previous high in gold before the high we reached in 2011, and in 1980 gold prices reached about $800 an ounce. So inflation adjusted, that price is about $2,500 today. If you look at the all-time high for gold we're nowhere near that today. And in 2011, the nominal all-time high was over $1,900. Remember gold has not gotten back to that level even right now. So from that perspective, gold is not like other asset classes that are trading at or near all-time highs. So I think there's still room to go,' Rhind added."

fire The Real Looters are the Politicians -Bovard/AIER
"The brutal killing of George Floyd by Minneapolis police spurred widespread protests which have been followed by looting in dozens of American cities. CNN's Don Lemon compared looters who plundered Neiman Marcus and other upscale stores to those at the Boston Tea Party. But far more Americans likely agreed with Quinta Caylor, a black North Carolina nurse on Twitter, who denounced the looters who 'THUGGED OUT in 1 day' businesses that owners had worked long and hard to build...Total losses may range in the tens of millions of dollars or perhaps in the hundreds of millions of dollars. The pillaging has been especially ruinous to many small family-owned businesses, some of whom may not have insurance to cover their losses. Many cities have responded to violent rampages by imposing curfews and other severe restrictions on movement. Many such edicts are remarkably similar to the 'shelter-in-place' COVID dictates imposed by many state governments. In Portland, Oregon, 'rioters have broken into Portland's main mall in downtown and began looting the Louis Vuitton. Youths ran out with designer bags. They shouted about expropriation,' as Andy Ngo tweeted. But that state suffered far more from Gov. Kate Brown's edict that banned residents from leaving their homes except for essential work, buying food, and other narrow exemptions, and also banned all recreational travel, even though much of the state had few if any COVID cases. Almost 400,000 Oregonians have lost their jobs after Brown's shutdown. In Grand Rapids, Michigan, looters pillaged a shoe store and many other businesses. But the damage they inflicted was not even pocket change compared to the wreckage produced by Gov. Gretchen Whitmer. She prohibited anyone from leaving their home to visit family or friends. Whitmer severely restricted what stores could sell; she prohibited purchasing seeds for spring planting in stores after she decreed that a 'nonessential' activity (unlike buying state lottery tickets)....In the District of Columbia, looters pillaged an Apple Store. 'I bet this is about the [COVID] contact tracing in the latest upgrade,' quipped one wag on Twitter. But Washington Mayor Muriel Bowser has inflicted vastly more damage on the city with a lockdown order that helped destroy almost 100,000 jobs....The recent riots may have destroyed hundreds of businesses. But forecasts predict that millions of businesses could be forced to close or file bankruptcy because of the pandemic disruptions. The people who pillaged stores in recent days deserve vigorous prosecution, and the deluge of Twitter plundering-in-progress videos could make it easier to identify culprits. It remains to be seen whether mayors will have the gumption to throw the book at the thieves. But it is even less likely that the politicians and other government officials who inflicted far greater damage on the economy will ever be held liable."

Assaulted & Vilified, The Cops Save The Cities -Buchanan/Zero Hedge
"On the fifth night of rioting, looting and arson in Minneapolis, the criminal elements were driven from the streets. By whom? By the same cops who had been the constant objects of media derision and mob hatred. Without the thin blue line, far larger sectors of dozens of America's cities would be in ruins, burned to the ground by the mobs that showered police and their vehicles with rocks, bricks, bottles, Molotov cocktails and any debris that could be thrown at them. Because they were the first responders in these riots, the cops were the first targets of criminal assault and the last line of defense of the law-abiding. Wherever they had to draw back or pull back, anarchy ensued. Consider the decision of Mayor Jacob Frey and Police Chief Medaria Arradondo to surrender and abandon the 3rd Precinct. As police cars pulled out and the cops fled, the exhilarated rabble invaded, pillaged and burned the precinct. And America saw, in astonishment, a triumph of anarchy....Frey, who ordered the surrender, is a far-left Democrat. Gov. Tim Walz is a liberal Democrat, as are both U.S. senators including Amy Klobuchar. Minneapolis Congresswoman Ilhan Omar is a soul sister of Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez....Query: How does 'systemic racism' permeate a blue state dominated for decades by liberal Democrats? What explains the failure of Democrats who have long run Minnesota to root out racism? Why have liberals failed to exorcise racism where they rule? Are even good Minnesota liberals infected with the virus? What we witnessed this week in Minneapolis is a failure of liberalism. The leadership of the city and state could not persuade the protesters it claims to represent to remain peaceful. And when rioting, looting and arson erupted, and attacks on police began, that leadership sat morally and politically paralyzed....Because of the failure to condemn that criminality, and the paralysis of Minnesota's political leadership class, the black community in Minneapolis has lost hundreds of businesses - some forever - that had provided them with the necessities of a decent life. Liberals may equate the term 'law and order' with racism, but without law and order, there is no justice and no peace."

Why cash has become the new Typhoid Mary -LA Times
"'This note is legal tender for all debts, public and private.' That's what it says right under 'Federal Reserve Note' and 'The United States of America.' But legal tender won't be accepted to play at one of the city of Los Angeles' dozen public golf courses. Or for the $15 charge to enter the Los Angeles County Arboretum and Botanic Gardens in Arcadia. More than 30 Armstrong Garden Centers around California also ask for 'touchless' payment options, as does the Beehive clothing boutique in Manhattan Beach and the Munch Company sandwich shop in South Pasadena. The almighty dollar has lost some of its might in the time of COVID-19. While most struggling businesses will take payment in any form to make ends meet during the economic downturn, a minority reject cash, fearing that it could be a transmission vehicle for the SARS-CoV-2 virus. Some experts predict that the pandemic will accelerate a steady flight by American consumers away from dollars and cents....A shift to other forms of payment has been encouraged by government agencies, such as the California Department of Public Health, which suggests the use of debit and credit cards. Reopening plans for multiple counties also recommend 'contactless' payment systems. The retreat of cash comes with an advance of electronic payment systems such as Square, created by Twitter co-founder Jack Dorsey, and PayPal, also the parent of Venmo. 'I think what's happened with the pandemic is it's taken a three- to five-year time frame that it would have taken for digital payments to hit a tipping point and fast-forwarded it to reach that tipping point literally within months,' PayPal Chief Executive Daniel Schulman said in an interview."

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6.2.20 - Is COVID-19 Death Count Accurate?

Gold last traded at $1,735 an ounce. Silver at $18.33 an ounce.

NEWS SUMMARY: Precious metal prices eased back on short-term profit-taking. U.S. stocks rose slightly as traders grappled with civil unrest around the country along with the reopening of the economy from the coronavirus pandemic.

Speculators Dump Gold But Price Goes Up Anyway -Mish/TheStreet
"Judging from futures and alleged jewelry demand, the price of gold ought to be falling. But it isn't. Let's explore what's happening with the price of gold and why. In the futures world, for every long there is a short. Contracts net to zero. The commercials are producers who sell their gold and the broker-dealers who are hedged. Note that commercials are down 111,290 contracts since February. This is not 'covering shorts' as often claimed. Rather it reflects speculators dumping contracts. Managed money dumped 125,456 contracts. Yet, the price of gold rose from $1,644.60 to $1,751.70....Normally when speculators add contracts, the price of gold rises and when speculators are liquidating contracts, the price falls. But not even that is happening now."

NYSE Stock market playing in its own Magic Kingdom -The Big Picture/Briefing.com
"Of all the news heard this week, it's not an exaggeration to suggest that the news that mattered most to a lot of people, both in the market and outside the market, is that Walt Disney is planning to begin a phased reopening of its Florida parks, beginning July 11 for the Magic Kingdom and Animal Kingdom and July 15 for EPCOT and Hollywood Studios. It was an important announcement, as it promises to save the summer vacation plans for some travelers (certainly not all) who had designs on visiting the Disney parks before COVID-19 hit. It was also important for its symbolism, as the Disney parks reopening is a reflection of the confidence that is emerging in the thought that the worst of the COVID-19 experience is behind us. The latter is certainly the hope, which some epidemiologists might dispute...That hope springs eternal, too, in the stock market, which has been flying high since March 23 with some help from the Fed, some help from science, and some help from all 50 states implementing plans to get business going again. In fact, there is so much hope in the stock market right now, you might think Wall Street has moved to Disney World's Main Street where everything is perfect all of the time - and that's just not possible....In brief, the stock market is on a ride like the halcyon 'It's a Small World' where everyone gets along in a sing-songy kind of way and the ride itself is smooth. Yeah, that's a utopian fantasy only Disney can create. The stock market sure is emulating it, though, trading at 21.8x forward twelve-month earnings (44% premium to 10-yr average) at a time when more than 40 million people have lost their jobs, politics are getting nasty again, and the coronavirus has still not met its vaccine match....It's living in Tomorrowland where everyone is back to work and there is a vaccine....The stock market has been living in its own Magic Kingdom where problems have been washed away by the Fed's fire hose of liquidity, where everyone's dreams come true, and where everything is perfect on Main Street. Unfortunately, it's a vision from Fantasyland."

Just How Exaggerated Is The COVID-19 Death Count? -Editors/Issues&Insights
"As the 'official' tally of COVID-19 deaths tops 100,000 in the U.S., we keep hearing how that number is likely a low-ball estimate. But there's far more evidence that the death count has been knowingly exaggerated - possibly by a very wide margin. A recent Seattle Times article pretty much lays out the charade going on....'The rapid onslaught of this coronavirus forced officials to part from their normal process of counting deaths. "¦ Their goal was to get the data out as quickly as possible, 'in near-real time so immediate decisions could be made to protect the health of Washingtonians.' The story goes on to say that the state's dashboard 'reflects anyone who died, that tested positive for COVID, irrespective of cause of death.' Basically, the state has been matching up the names of those who died this year with a database containing names of people who tested positive for COVID-19. A review of the data by the Olympia-based Freedom Foundation found that of all the deaths attributed to the virus, 5% didn't list COVID-19 as the cause of death on their death certificates. Another 13% involved people who had at one time tested positive for the disease, but the virus wasn't 'listed on death certificates as either causing or contributing to death.' Five of the state's 'coronavirus deaths' actually died from gunshot wounds. The Freedom Foundation findings came after Colorado's public health department was forced to admit that nearly a quarter of those listed as dying from COVID-19 didn't have the disease listed on their death certificates. 'The death figure CDPHE has been providing for weeks is more accurately described as the number of people with COVID-19 who have died - for any reason,' noted the Colorado Sun....In late April, Pennsylvania removed more than 200 deaths from its count - which amounted to 12% reduction at the time - after reviewing the data. Assuming that all states are tallying numbers the way these states had been, the national count is almost certainly off by a very wide margin - possibly in the tens of thousands....If the death toll from COVID-19 is actually in the range of 75,000, then it's more like a bad seasonal flu than an epidemic requiring a once-thriving economy to shut down. The cost of the lockdown in lives could easily be higher - and possibly much higher - than the deaths attributed to the virus."

How Tech billionaires are plotting to boost Joe Biden -VOX
"Joe Biden has a problem. Silicon Valley billionaires think they have a solution. Election Day is less than six months away, and Democrats are scrambling to patch the digital deficits of their presumptive nominee. And behind the scenes, Silicon Valley's billionaire Democrats are spending tens of millions of dollars on their own sweeping plans to catch up to President Donald Trump's lead on digital campaigning - plans that are poised to make them some of the country's most influential people when it comes to shaping the November results. These billionaires' arsenals are funding everything from nerdy political science experiments to divisive partisan news sites to rivalrous attempts to overhaul the party's beleaguered data file. This is all unfolding as the pandemic forces campaigns to pivot away from door-knocks and packed rallies and toward data mining and influencer marketing - which in many ways play to the strengths of these tech titans, making them even more influential at a time when many in the Democratic Party are uneasy with just how powerful some in tech have become....In Silicon Valley's new political moment, four billionaires in particular - LinkedIn founder Reid Hoffman, Facebook co-founder Dustin Moskovitz, philanthropist Laurene Powell Jobs, and former Google CEO Eric Schmidt - have the most ambitious plans, according to Recode's interviews with over 20 donors and operatives. The chess moves of this power set are instrumental to fulfilling Democrats' - and much of Silicon Valley's - four-year quest to oust Donald Trump. And yet each of these billionaires is moving their pieces with varying levels of secrecy, and often with minimal disclosure, scrutiny, or accountability....The Silicon Valley set is uniquely seeking to build a digital world optimized for 2020, drawing lessons from the right-wing media ecosystem that conservatives built and Trump capitalized upon in 2016. 'For far too long right-wing media has dominated our discourse and Facebook news feeds,' said Tara McGowan, the founder of Acronym, a political group backed by Powell Jobs and Hoffman. 'We can't sit by another cycle and watch a one-sided battle play out online.'....For all these billionaires' best-laid plans to help-desk the Democratic Party's digital woes before Election Day, Democrats fret that the coronavirus is dividing their attention and convincing some of them to reroute funds from political causes to charitable ones."

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6.1.20 - Amid Protests, US Businesses Close

Gold last traded at $1,750 an ounce. Silver at $18.76 an ounce.

NEWS SUMMARY: Precious metal prices rose Monday on safe-haven buying and a weaker dollar. U.S. stocks struggled as investors digested the impact protests may have on reopening the U.S. economy.

Retailers and restaurants across the U.S. close their doors amid protests -Houston Chronicle
"It had only been two days since Lilliannia Ayers reopened her Queen Hippie Gypsy store in downtown Oakland, Calif., before her front window was smashed and her storefront was spray painted Friday. On Saturday night, she and neighbors stayed up all night to protect their stores - hopeful the protest movements across the U.S. would not destroy her business so soon after it suffered a devastating hit from the pandemic shutdown. Similar scenes of destruction have created chaos and concern along the path of the nation's protests over the death of a black man in police custody in Minneapolis. That's pushed brick-and-mortar retail and restaurant industries, already hard hit by the coronavirus pandemic, to the center. Retailers and other businesses in cities across the U.S., including the Bay Area, the District of Columbia, New York, Atlanta, Philadelphia and Minneapolis, experienced broken windows, thefts and other violence over the weekend. The actions prompted a number of businesses to shut their doors and raised questions about how exactly the actions relate to the protesters, many of whom were peaceful. Walmart on Sunday closed several hundred stores due to potential protests. Amazon said it had adjusted routes or scaled back delivery operations in some cities, while Apple closed an unspecified number of stores on Sunday. Target said it temporarily closed six stores in California, Minnesota, Illinois and Pennsylvania. The Mayor of Philadelphia ordered all retailers to shut down Sunday. Destruction is adding a new economic wrinkle for businesses already struggling. But the actions across the U.S. in protest of police brutality has also prompted many affected businesses to speak out in support of the protests."

gold prices In Gold We Trust -Incrementum AG
"As gold investors, we are naturally very interested in the question of how the gold price might develop over the course of the coming golden decade....We use two parameters to calculate the price target, namely money supply developments and the implicit gold coverage ratio. Our expectation for the gold price at the end of the decade is around $4,800. The distribution is clearly skewed to the right. This means that significantly higher prices are far more likely than lower ones. Of course, quantitative models of this kind always have a certain degree of fuzziness. However, we believe that we have taken a conservative approach to calibrating the scenarios. Not least because of the unique global debt situation described in detail in this year's In Gold We Trust report, growth figures for M2 in the decade that has just begun are not implausible at the same level as in the 1970s. In this case, the model suggests a gold price of $8,900 by 2030. As you have gathered from our comprehensive report, we expect significant upheavals in the new decade with positive effects on the gold price. What is the reason for our unbroken trust in gold? First and foremost, our fondness for gold is based on our understanding of monetary history. Milton Friedman put it aptly when he said that there is nothing more permanent than a temporary government program. Richard Nixon's announcement in 1971 that gold convertibility would be temporarily suspended turned out to be a seemingly permanent provisional solution. This temporary solution has now lasted for almost half a century....At 'The Dawning of a Golden Decade' we still say: IN GOLD WE TRUST.

Do You Feel $9,000 Richer, Punk? -Welch/Reason
"As Congress squabbles over the next multitrillion-dollar phase of coronavirus relief, it's worth asking the question: Do you feel $9,000 richer since March? Unless you were an early investor in the vaccine-chasing Moderna Therapeutics, the answer is likely 'no.' And yet the estimated $3 trillion price tag on the first four batches of COVID-19 stimulus, divided by 330 million increasingly underemployed U.S. residents, equals $9,000 per capita, which has ended up where government payouts usually go: to entities with better connections than you. There was the $50 billion to airline companies - $25 billion in loan guarantees, $25 billion in grants - which promptly slashed worker hours while burning fuel on empty flights at the government's request. There were the concierge-service clients of banking behemoths Citibank, U.S. Bank, and J.P. Morgan Chase, who got to the front of the line for the feds' $349 billion loan program for small businesses. And don't forget the Federal Reserve, which is propping up Wall Street by doing what Fed Chair Jerome Powell recently characterized on 60 Minutes as 'a multiple of the programs that were done during the last crisis.'....'Millions of Americans are seeing that the government spent trillions of dollars and still didn't get it right,' Rep. Justin Amash (L-Mich.) told me last month, during his brief flirtation with the Libertarian Party presidential nomination. 'They didn't get help to the people who need it most. Instead, most of the assistance went to people who have great connections, who run big corporations. Those people, they got it really fast.' Why does this happen every time? As economists like to say, incentives matter. Sure, Congress could have just mailed us each a $9,000 check - or maybe $7,000, spending the rest on medical system capacity. But then the two major parties wouldn't have been able to go back to their favored and most supportive constituencies and brag about their special treatment....So what does Congress do for an encore? House Speaker Rep. Nancy Pelosi (D-Calif.) wants to double down on another $3 trillion. No, we'll need $10 trillion to stave off another great depression, they tell us in The Atlantic."

Masks Versus No-Masks: Is This The New Symbol Of Tribalism? -Luther/Zero Hedge
"Masks have become a symbol of which 'side' you're on in the coronavirus debate in the United States and for some folks, whether you choose to wear one or not says a lot about you. If you don't wear a mask, you're seen as a callous brute who doesn't care whether you spread your germs and kill grandma. If you do wear a mask, you're seen as a quivering sheep, someone who has been willingly muted by the government. Rationally, we know there's a lot more to it than that, however, rational thinking is rarely at the forefront when tempers are flaring. Whether or not you choose to wear a mask is an incredibly visible sign that many will read as an alliance to one 'side' or the other. It's becoming almost tribal. There are a lot of folks who come down on the side of wearing a mask. Why? Most of them say it's to protect others from them in case they're unwittingly carrying and spreading the virus....The data regarding the cloth masks that most people are wearing doesn't really support their use....On the other side of the debate we have those who refuse to wear masks. Some folks won't do business in stores that require them. Others try to enter the establishments that require masks without adhering to the requests. Others just stay at home because they refuse to comply. Why won't they wear masks? Some of it goes back to the Surgeon General's early recommendation that masks were not helpful in stopping the spread of the coronavirus. There are a couple of other reasons, too. First, many feel based on the information above that the masks are not effective. If they don't work, why should they go through the discomfort and for some, the difficulty breathing that mask-wearing brings? Some see it as a symbol of weakness....I strongly believe we should be responsible for our own health and therefore make these choices ourselves. At the same time, I support the right for businesses to choose whether or not to serve people who refuse to wear masks. If you, as a customer, feel strongly about not wearing a mask, you should vote with your wallet and go to stores that don't require it. This is a purely libertarian point of view. It's about personal responsibility and the free market. Personally, I keep a mask tucked into my purse and wear it if the establishment I'm visiting has a policy requiring it."

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5.29.20 - $5,000-$9,000 Gold Within 10 Years

Gold last traded at $1,751 an ounce. Silver at $18.53 an ounce.

NEWS SUMMARY: Precious metal prices rose Friday on safe-haven buying and a weaker dollar. U.S. stocks fell as traders braced for an upcoming news conference on U.S.-China relations from President Donald Trump.

Gold to see $5,000-$9,000 price levels in 10 years -In Gold We Trust Report/Kitco
"The yellow metal could be looking at nearing the $5,000 an ounce price tag in a decade and that is a conservative estimate, according to the annual In Gold We Trust Report published by Incrementum AG. The 14th annual report made some pretty bold predictions for the gold market, forecasting prices to, at least, approach $5,000 an ounce and possibly even push towards $9,000 an ounce by 2030, Incrementum AG fund managers and authors of the report Ronald-Peter Stoeferle and Mark Valek wrote on Wednesday. The difference between whether gold will be near $5,000 an ounce or $9,000 an ounce will depend on the global debt situation as well as inflation. 'The proprietary valuation model shows a gold price of $4,800 at the end of this decade, even with conservative calibration. Should money supply growth develop in a similar inflationary manner to that of the 1970s, a gold price of $8,900 is conceivable by 2030,' the report stated. The monetary systems in their current form all have an expiration date, the authors of the report said. 'Due to the expected economic and monetary turbulences, the coming years will hold many challenges for investors,' Stoeferle and Valek wrote."

covid COVID-19 Stimulus Packages Take Away Post-Lockdown Job Incentives -Bonner/Rogue Economics
"For the last 10 years - or longer - Wall Street and big business have been in high clover. But it's been barren ground for the average working man. Big banks, big business, and big investors have been able to get credit from the feds at or below the rate of consumer price inflation. The EZ money acted like Miracle-Gro in the stock market; prices rose 300%. But the economy, in which the little guys live and earn their money - suffered a long drought, growing only a piddly 50% in 10 years....And now, with 43 million unemployed"¦ the grumbling gets louder. Menacing, even. In desperation and frustration, voters might even elect Joe Biden.But the feds are no dopes. They're applying the same techniques that worked so well with the cronies to silence the proletariat. That is, they are paying them off. As strange as it seems, the Paycheck Protection Plan does more than protect a man's income. Instead, it enhances it....State unemployment benefits of $400 per week, average, are already not bad for many of these workers. Add on the $600 per week that the feds are chipping in and you have an income which, in many cases, is more than double what the fellow was earning before the crisis. Many wage-earners are delighted to be laid off - they make more money!....Who will want to go back to work"¦ and earn less? Workers will be reluctant to return to the office or the factory floor. (There might be germs there!) This will obviously delay a recovery. And they will expect higher pay (thus reducing employers' desire to take them back). What to do?....White House economic adviser Larry Kudlow recently said the administration is interested in back-to-work bonuses for the unemployed. He mentioned $450 per week in addition to any wages those individuals would make....More damaging in the long run, average Americans will now begin to see the feds - not honest work - as the best source of wealth."

Big Bankruptcies Sweep the U.S. in Fastest Pace Since May 2009 -Yahoo Finance
"In the first few weeks of the pandemic, it was just a trickle: companies like Alaskan airline Ravn Air pushed into bankruptcy as travel came to a halt and markets collapsed. But the financial distress wrought by the shutdowns only deepened, producing what is now a wave of insolvencies washing through America's corporations. In May alone, some 27 companies reporting at least $50 million in liabilities sought court protection from creditors - the highest number since the Great Recession. They range from well-known U.S. mainstays such as J.C. Penney Co. and J. Crew Group Inc. to air carriers Latam Airlines Group SA and Avianca Holdings, their business decimated as travelers stayed put. In May 2009, 29 major companies filed for bankruptcy, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. And year-to-date, there have been 98 bankruptcies filed by companies with at least $50 million in liabilities - also the highest since 2009. Few people believe bankruptcies have by any means hit a peak. 'I think we're going to continue to see filings of at least the level we're seeing for a while,' said Melanie Cyganowski, a former bankruptcy judge now with the Otterbourg law firm....'If you know someone at the bankruptcy courts, be sure to thank them,' Duston McFaul, a partner at law firm Sidley Austin, said in an email. 'They're already over-stretched and we're only in the first inning.'"

In virus chaos, some find solace, purpose in helping others -Associated Press
"In April, as the coronavirus was ravaging New York, Susan Jones learned her older brother had been diagnosed with a blood cancer. His supervisor at work launched a GoFundMe page to help with costs, and Jones shared it on Facebook...She was stunned to see scores of colleagues - some she didn't even know that well, and didn't even know she had a brother - donating, despite their own economic challenges in a struggling dance community. Jones found herself asking: Would the response have been the same just two months earlier, before the pandemic? She's fairly certain it wouldn't. Instead, she thinks the instinct to help shows, along with simple kindness, how people are striving to make a difference. At a time of helplessness, she says, helping others makes a mark on a world that seems to be overwhelming all of us....Helping others can feel good is not just an anecdotal truth but an idea backed by research, says Laurie Santos, psychology professor at Yale University and teacher of the school's most popular course to date: 'Psychology and the Good Life.' 'The intuition that helping others is the key to our well-being right now fits with science,' Santos says. 'There's lots of research showing that spending our time and money on other people can often make us happier than spending that same time or money on ourselves.'....When the pandemic struck, Blake Ross, a 37-year-old mother of a toddler in New York, was testing the waters to re-enter the job market - in the field of event programming, as it happens....She hit on the idea of a website to connect people who wanted to help with those who need it. Taking a cue from her theater-industry background, she called her site 'Kindness of Strangers' after the line in Tennessee Williams' 'A Streetcar Named Desire.' Some 500 people from New York and around the world have signed on...Ross has partnered with Enlivant, which runs senior homes in 20 states, and has set up an adopt-a-grandparent program. 'The essence of volunteering is that you feel wonderful after giving of yourself,' Ross says. 'You certainly get as much as you give.'"

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5.28.20 - Jobless Stats May Not Tell Full Story

Gold last traded at $1,723 an ounce. Silver at $17.87 an ounce.

NEWS SUMMARY: Precious metal prices rose Thursday on safe-haven buying and a weaker dollar. U.S. stocks rose as traders see the latest data as a signal the economy may be nearing the bottom.

Gold gains as simmering US-China tensions boost demand -CNBC
"Gold prices rebounded on Thursday as deteriorating U.S.-China relations over Beijing's move to impose a national-security law in Hong Kong fanned concerns over quick economic recovery and drove investors towards the safe-haven metal....'The tensions between U.S. and China continue to be on the high side. Overall, the market is a bit worried about the situation geopolitically and also economically,' said Afshin Nabavi, senior vice president at precious metals trader MKS SA. China's parliament approved a national security legislation for Hong Kong on Thursday, fueling fears it could jeopardize its special autonomy and freedoms. The new security law on Hong Kong has lead to an escalation in trade tension between the United States and China amid Washington ramping up criticism of China over the origins of the coronavirus pandemic. The escalating tensions have increased interest in gold, which is seen as a safe investment during times of political and financial uncertainty."

jobless claims Jobless Numbers May Not Tell Full Story -New York Times
"More than 40 million people - the equivalent of one out of every four American workers - have filed for unemployment benefits since the coronavirus pandemic grabbed hold in mid-March, the government reported on Thursday, an astounding tally that rivals the bleakest years of the Great Depression. The latest batch of claims - the 2.1 million people who filed a new jobless claim last week - may not be only a result of fresh layoffs, but also evidence that states are working their way through some of the choking backlog. 'We're still catching up,' Diane Swonk, chief economist at the accounting firm Grant Thornton, said of the newest claims. 'The lags have been long.' The Labor Department report marks the eighth week in a row that new jobless claims dipped from the peak of almost 6.9 million - but the level is still far above any other historical highs....'It's unclear if states are including duplicate claims due to error, fraud or the Pandemic Unemployment Assistance program,' Mr. Tedeschi said. That same system is most likely missing millions of other laid-off workers. Even now, three states have not put the pandemic unemployment insurance program into effect, and several others have yet to report any claims....The way 'initial claims' are counted may also vary by state, with some excluding claims that have not been processed."

The "future of work" is here, thanks to Covid-19 -Quartz
"As the Covid-19 crisis has unfolded, corporate leaders have scrambled to develop radical new strategies for accessing customers, maintaining supply chains, and salvaging revenue streams. Many of their solutions have been strikingly innovative. Yet when it comes to the ins and outs of the white-collar work environment - where, when, and how we work each day - the changes are exactly what I would've expected...In some ways, this crisis has merely catapulted them directly into a future we've all been inching toward for years: the so-called future of work. As dean of Columbia University's School of Professional Studies, and a professor of human capital management, my research and teaching both focus on the future of work domain...Though I never would've wished for a pandemic to be the catalyst, I do believe our suddenly new ways of working are here to stay. As leaders adjust to this, here are four future-of-work pillars...Pillar 1: Flexible hours - Since the outbreak of the pandemic, our definition of the word 'office' has changed dramatically...The definition of the 'workday' has changed, as well; it is no longer limited to a certain subset of hours that all employees share....Pillar 2: Data-based employee metrics - Leaders don't need to stop evaluating employee performance - far from it. They'll simply need to create new metrics of success...Once the metrics are set, leaders must make their new expectations crystal clear....Pillar 3: Social impact - Forward-thinking leaders will continue to prioritize corporate social impact. They will build long-term relationships with nonprofits, offering resources, funding, and volunteer opportunities, and will cultivate a workplace culture that invests in more than just the bottom line. Pillar 4: Authentic relationships -Now that we're experiencing a season of global crisis together, the last semblances of formality have been stripped away. The term 'business casual' has taken on new meaning, as we've literally seen into each other's homes and met each other's partners, pets, and children....I believe the smartest business leaders won't rush back to the constraints of unnecessary formalities, cubicles, or commutes. Instead, they will accept that the future of work has already arrived - and, in doing so, will prepare themselves and their teams for whatever comes next."

A Plainer People in a Plainer Time -Noonan/Wall Street Journal
"We're easing up. Good, it's time. Spring is here, summer's coming. You can pass any well-meaning restriction and do your best to enforce it, but great leaders work with human nature, not against it. People need to be together, out in the air, in the sun, and if you don't let them they'll find a way anyhow, and then everybody will have to fight. All 50 states are to varying degree unlocking. How citizens do this will determine the size and severity of second and third waves. It's almost all in our hands....What we did - essentially shut down a great, complex, modern nation for two months out of concern that people would become sick - had never been tried before. It's something new in history. We will look back on it, however it turns out, with a certain wonder. In those two months we learned a lot. How intertwined and interconnected our economy is, how provisional, how this thing depended on that....But the biggest things I suspect we learned were internal. No matter what you do for a living, when you weren't busy introspection knocked on the door and settled in...They've been conducting a kind of internal life review, reflecting on the decision that seemed small and turned out to be crucial, wondering about paths not taken, recognizing strokes of luck. They've been thinking about their religious faith or lack of it, about their relationships....Here is what I am certain of. We will emerge a plainer people in a plainer country, and maybe a deeper one. Something big inside us shifted...We're getting pared down. We're paring ourselves down."

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5.27.20 - The Real Reason Gold is Rising

Gold last traded at $1,711 an ounce. Silver at $17.78 an ounce.

NEWS SUMMARY: Precious metal prices traded mixed Wednesday on rising investor risk tolerance. U.S. stocks also traded mixed as traders grappled with the economy reopening and a big drop in tech shares.

Here's the Real Reason Gold Has Been Rising -Bloomberg
"Gold goes up when interest rates go down...If you adjust the price of gold for inflation, you see it falling in the early part of the past decade as the real yield on government bonds rose. (Real means adjusted for inflation.) More recently, the opposite has been happening: The inflation-adjusted price of gold has risen, while the real interest rate on 10-year Treasury notes has fallen. This relationship makes sense. Gold pays no interest, so it's unattractive at a time when the real interest paid on bonds is high. In economists' terms, the opportunity cost of holding gold is high at such times. In contrast, at times such as this, when the yield to be had from Treasuries is actually negative, gold looks pretty good. In short, gold isn't going up because of inflation. It's going up because the Fed and other central banks are slashing interest rates to fight the opposite risk - deflation caused by the deep Covid-19 recession. Of course, gold would also do well if inflation surged and the Fed went easy on raising rates as the economy regained steam. The fear of that scenario is probably behind some investors' gold-buying...Deflation, not inflation, is the motor behind gold's rise."

covid Coronavirus apps' fatal flaw: Almost everyone has to use them or they won't work -Fortune
"A team in Switzerland today became the world's first to introduce a contact-tracing app built on a protocol jointly designed by Apple and Google...Contact-tracing apps work by automatically recording other nearby devices that have the same app installed. Users who later test positive for COVID-19 can use the app to automatically send alerts to those other people they were in contact with, advising them to self-isolate for 14 days or to get tested themselves....But, unfortunately, there's a hidden flaw in these contact-tracing apps - in fact, in all contact-tracing apps - that means they are unlikely to live up to their promise: To work effectively, they require adoption rates of well over half the population, which few mobile apps, even the most viral and fun, ever achieve. The Apple-Google protocol is popular with civil liberties groups that fret about the Big Brother implications of governments collecting in a central database citizens' location information and records of everyone they've met. The Apple-Google solution works without holding this information centrally....A widely cited study by a team at Oxford University found that apps must be adopted by 56% of people to have a dramatic impact on coronavirus transmission rates....Assuming the app's use can't be mandated, privacy does become an important issue. If people are worried about the government having access to their location data and insights into their contacts, they will be less likely to download and use the app."

Getting A Sense of the Economy's Current Hole and How the Government's Measures To Fill It (Don't) Add Up -Snyder/Alhambra
"The numbers just don't add up. Even if you treat this stuff on the most charitable of terms, dollar for dollar, way too much of the hole almost certainly remains unfilled. That's the thing about 'stimulus' talk; for one thing, people seem to be viewing it as some kind of addition without thinking it all the way through first....Everyone forgets the last time when the government tried this, impressing markets and the media with its huge numbers, that after it was over its proponents complained how it wasn't big enough....What we are dealing with today is an economic disruption the proportions of which are an historical outlier. That means an unfathomable number of workers are not getting paid and therefore consumers not spending, businesses don't collect that revenue which destroys their profit levels, and then business investment which doesn't get done on top of both consumers and businesses far more likely to save and act differently than before....The stock market like many commentators are all saying the government's done more than enough, perhaps too much (inflation). That all depends first upon the scale of the hole....For Q2 alone, the gap is $2.1 trillion - as a starting point. Two point one TRILLION in lost direct economic output. Not an annual rate, not seasonally-adjusted, gross nominal dollars. If we tally up the rest of the year, quarters one through four, this scenario leaves us expecting just $18.9 trillion in total output compared to the $22.3 trillion under our 4% growth baseline - for a yearly difference in lost activity of somewhere around $3.4 trillion...Using less moderate estimates, the gap really does tally $4 trillion or more....Even if we assume dollar for dollar the government's spending hits the real economy in gross nominal output, that still leaves a deficit of substantially greater than $1 trillion."

The Healing Power of Proper Breathing -Wall Street Journal
"Breathing is not an activity that anyone is feeling confident about right now. We spend our days covering our mouths and noses with masks, struggling to inhale and exhale. We toss and turn at night, worried that we might be feeling a cough coming on or some tightness in our chests. Covid-19 has turned us into a planet of breath-obsessed people. But as hard as it might be to fathom now, there is a silver lining here: Breathing is a missing pillar of health, and our attention to it is long overdue. Most of us misunderstand breathing. We see it as passive, something that we just do. Breathe, live; stop breathing, die. But breathing is not that simple and binary. How we breathe matters, too...The way that we take in that air and expel it is as important as what we eat, how much we exercise and the genes we've inherited...Breathing properly can allow us to live longer and healthier lives. Breathing poorly, by contrast, can exacerbate and sometimes cause a laundry list of chronic diseases: asthma, anxiety, attention deficit hyperactivity disorder, hypertension and more....The first step in healthy breathing: extending breaths to make them a little deeper, a little longer. Try it. For the next several minutes, inhale gently through your nose to a count of about five and then exhale, again through your nose, at the same rate or a little more slowly if you can. This works out to about six breaths a minute...Just a few minutes of inhaling and exhaling at this pace can drop blood pressure by 10, even 15 points....The second step in healthy breathing: Breathe through your nose. Nasal breathing not only helps with snoring and some mild cases of sleep apnea, it also can allow us to absorb around 18% more oxygen than breathing through our mouths. It reduces the risk of dental cavities and respiratory problems and likely boosts sexual performance. The list goes on....It costs nothing and takes little time and effort. It's a therapy our ancestors self-administered for thousands of years with only their lips, noses and lungs."

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5.26.20 - Gold May Reach a Record by Year End

Gold last traded at $1,706 an ounce. Silver at $17.61 an ounce.

NEWS SUMMARY: Precious metal prices eased Monday on profit-taking despite a weaker dollar. U.S. stocks rose sharply as markets cheered signs of economies reopening and a potential new coronavirus vaccine.

Gold may reach a record by year end as investor need creates 'more demand than the market can handle' -Marketwatch
"Gold prices could reach a record by year end, but don't expect to see a smooth ride to the top, even as measures to offset the pandemic-hit economy support the precious metal's appeal as a haven....The most significant supportive factor for gold is the 'amount of debt being created to fund the various global monetary and fiscal deficits,' says Peter Grosskopf, chief executive officer at Sprott Inc. Against that backdrop, gold is experiencing a broad rally, with 'participants ranging from state funds to pensions to [high-net-worth] clients to hedge funds.....'More investors need to add gold as a protection asset in their portfolios,' Grosskopf says. That will 'create more demand than the market can handle,' he says, and with the increasing amounts of monetary accommodation and fiscal deficits, gold could move through its past highs - to $1,900 or $2,000 - by the end of 2020. He refers to gold as a chameleon, as well as an 'anti-confidence thermometer' that 'attaches itself to themes and"¦does equally well during periods of extreme deflation and inflation.'"

test Should You Get Tested For COVID-19? -Zero Hedge
"What is a 'confirmed case' of COVID-19? No. This is not a trick question. It's someone who has tested positive for COVID-19. Meaning, you can be perfectly healthy, test positive, and become a 'confirmed case.' (You are therefore classified as 'asymptomatic.') Everything, therefore, hinges on the PCR tests - the most widely used method today - being accurate. Of course, 100% accuracy is impossible in anything. But the question is, how accurate are they? The rub? Testing an uninfected population will produce only false-positives and no false-negatives....The FDA has approved 33 different PCR tests from separate manufacturers. Problem #1: There's no single standard on what to detect. Some of the FDA-approved tests require only one segment to be present in order to test positive. Others require two. Others require two, but only one needs to be present. Others require three but require two to be present. Others insist all three. Which works best? We have no clue. They're all approved. Problem #2: There's no single standard for cutoff. When used as a test, the PCR technique doesn't produce a binary negative/positive result....The Biggest Problem: We are using these tests as the basis of every decision - local and national. And there's little consistency. In the hospital, for example, the moment someone with symptoms tests positive, they are treated as if they have COVID-19/SARS. This can lead to doctors and nurses jumping to invasive and aggressive treatments, all of which could have serious side-effects....Conclusion: So, until there's some uniformity, sanity, and clarity on the tests"¦ Consider carefully whether or not you actually need one."

Only 50% of Americans believe it's a good time to buy a home, an all-time low -Gallup/Marketwatch
"Americans have quickly soured on the prospects of the nation's real-estate market as the coronavirus pandemic has swept the country. Only 50% of Americans said that now is a good time to buy a home, according to a survey of roughly 1,000 people released Friday by polling firm Gallup. That represents the lowest share of Americans to have a positive view on the country's housing market in the time that Gallup has tracked people's sentiments on real estate...The previous low was set back in 2006 when only 52% of Americans thought it was a good time to buy amid the subprime mortgage-fueled housing bubble. Additionally, only 40% of Americans think that the average price of a home where they live will increase over the next year, down from 62% a year ago....Home sales have come close to a standstill in many parts of the country. Social-distancing recommendations have significantly complicated real-estate agents' ability to market homes, and home buyers face a more complicated process completing all the paperwork needed to buy a property. It has also gotten more difficult to get a mortgage. Sellers, meanwhile, have refrained from listing their homes or pulled them from the market to avoid the possibility of needing to sell at a lower price."

How Upbeat Vaccine News Fueled a Stock Surge, and an Uproar -DNyuz
"When the biotech company Moderna announced early last Monday morning positive results from a small, preliminary trial of its coronavirus vaccine, the company's chief medical officer described the news as a 'triumphant day for us.' Moderna's stock price jumped as much as 30 percent. Its announcement helped lift the stock market and was widely reported by news organizations, including The New York Times. Nine hours after its initial news release - and after the markets closed - the company announced a stock offering with the aim of raising more than $1 billion to help bankroll vaccine development. By Tuesday, a backlash was underway. The company had not released any more data, so scientists could not evaluate its claim. The government agency leading the trial, the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases, had made no comment on the results. And the stock sale stirred concerns about whether the company had sought to jack up the price of its stock offering with the news. The Moderna episode is a case study in how the coronavirus pandemic and the desperate hunt for treatments and vaccines are shaking up the financial markets and the way that researchers, regulators, drug companies, biotech investors and journalists do their jobs....'You have these wild swings, based on incomplete information,' said David Maris, managing director of Phalanx Investment Partners, and a longtime analyst covering the pharmaceutical industry. 'It's a crazy, speculative environment, because the pandemic has caused people to want to believe that there's going to be a miracle cure in a miracle time frame.'"

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5.22.20 - Silver Price Begins To Accelerate

Gold last traded at $1,730 an ounce. Silver at $17.64 an ounce.

NEWS SUMMARY: Precious metal prices rose Friday on safe-haven buying due to rising China tensions, despite a firmer dollar. U.S. stocks fell on investor worry after the Senate passed a bill that would potentially delist Chinese stocks from U.S. exchanges.

Silver Begins To Accelerate Higher Faster Than Gold -FX Empire/Yahoo News
"Precious metals have been on our radar for many months and, if you've been paying attention, you probably already know our research suggests Gold and Silver are one of the best investments you can make right now....Both Gold and Silver are making bigger upside price moves with Silver up over 3% while Gold is up 1.3%. We believe this nearly 250% faster Silver advance may be the start of what we have been predicting for many months - an incredible parabolic upside price advance in BOTH Gold and Silver....Our earlier research suggests when this move/setup begins, we could begin to experience a nearly 250% to 350% rally in gold, targeting $3750 or higher, and a 550% to 650% rally in Silver, targeting over $70, over a 12+ month span of time...We believe this SETUP is happening right now and the upside rally in precious metals should begin to really accelerate over the next 5+ months....In 2009, the Gold to Silver ratio level began to collapse from 85 to 32 - well over 50 points (58%). The current Gold to Silver ratio high is nearly 120. Another 58% collapse from that level would suggest the Gold to Silver ratio could fall to 50 (or further) which would indicate that both Gold and Silver could rally extensively throughout the next 12+ months....We don't know where you are going to find many opportunities that beat this setup in Precious Metals right now. This is the trade/setup of your lifetime."

Follow This Investment Trend to Secure Your Wealth for Decades -Dyson/Rogue Economics
"If you've been reading my recent essays, you'll know that I've been promoting a simple exchange: Sell stocks, buy gold....We are using gold primarily as money - a safe haven - and not as a speculation on higher gold prices. This is why I've put the bulk of my money into physical gold. It's a way to keep us safe while the investment markets correct. This chart shows what I'm talking about. It shows stocks (specifically the Dow Jones Industrial Average) priced in gold. As you can see, the primary trend in the stock market has been DOWN since October 2018, when it peaked at around 22. It's currently around 14. And it's on its way back down to below 5. By owning gold, we set ourselves up to buy stocks at some point in the next five to 10 years at much lower valuations than they are at today. And as such, the only thing that matters is how gold performs relative to stocks. Its nominal price of $1,700 - or whatever it is today - is irrelevant. So if you're worried that you've missed the boat, keep in mind that this trend still has a long way to go. So for the moment, I have the bulk of my portfolio in physical gold....I'm sitting on the sidelines in gold, where I will remain until stocks are ready to beat gold again. And I'll know the time is right by keeping an eye on the Dow-to-Gold ratio....If I'm right about this - and if I time my zigzag correctly - my family will never have to worry about money again."

Will government mandate COVID-19 vaccinations? -The Hill
"If the government determines that vaccinations are essential to stemming the spread of the disease, would it - could it - mandate vaccination compliance? Apparently, it can - and it might. Many medical experts believe that developing one or more COVID-19 vaccines is the key to reopening the economy and returning to our normal lives. For example, the Mayo Clinic says, 'A vaccine to prevent coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) is perhaps the best hope for ending the pandemic.'....The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) encourages adults to be immunized for a range of diseases. The flu vaccine leads the CDC's list that includes tetanus and diphtheria every 10 years, shingles, pneumonia and several others. Consider the flu vaccine. It is one of the most affordable and accessible vaccines available, and yet the CDC reports the adult vaccination rate over the past decade has ranged between 40 and 45 percent....While a small percentage of Americans oppose vaccinations on religious or medical grounds, most of the unvaccinated apparently just choose not to. Will a coronavirus vaccine see a higher uptake rate? Maybe. There is a lot of fear among the public, and that may persuade most adults to be vaccinated...If the COVID-19 vaccination rate is low, will the federal or, more likely, state governments step in and mandate vaccination?....Government mandated vaccinations for adults would be a major and controversial step. But then government has taken a number of major and controversial steps recently, such as shutting down the economy. But just because government can do something doesn't mean it should."

Americans Have Rediscovered Self-Reliance -Reason
"When state and local governments first issued pandemic lockdown orders as part of their efforts to slow the spread of COVID-19 pundits debated whether supposedly individualistic Americans would knuckle under. As it turns out, many people initially obeyed, but a lot of us quickly got fed up as restrictions killed jobs and smothered social interactions. If anything, pandemic restrictions fed oxygen to the embers of the individualist, anti-authoritarian tradition. Likewise, the lockdowns have fueled old habits of self-reliance, prompting Americans to relearn skills and revive almost-forgotten habits in ways that, for better or worse, may shape the future. Cooking at home was the first skill to gain new life in a nation that had become increasingly accustomed to take-out, fast food, and sit-down restaurant meals. 'Until recently, learning how to cook, or learning how to cook better, as an adult was considered an aspirational skill akin to learning how to ski - could be nice, might be fun, but would be daunting and could come with potentially expensive start-up costs,' reports the Washington Post....Canning supplies and online lessons in food preservation also took off, as people realized they have to use or store anything they grow....'Sewing machines are one of the top 20 items in demand during this pandemic,' Singer apologetically tells customers wondering about their delayed orders. While they wait for those sewing machines to arrive, Americans are repairing gutters and building shelving units. Confinement at home with time but little money on our hands has 'made us all very handy,' says The New York Times. 'For many homeowners across the country, the coronavirus-imposed quarantine has presented an opportunity to head over to the local hardware store and launch a few D.I.Y. projects around the house.'....Uncertain about the future, Americans are holding on to money rather than spending. The personal savings rate is now 13.1 percent, the highest level since 1981. Worried about the future and stashing cash as a hedge against risk, many - not all, but certainly a good number - of Americans will continue cooking, baking, brewing, gardening, and repairing....In the wake of the crisis will be hard-learned skills and the confidence and sense of self-reliance for using them."

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5.21.20 - Will Americans Submit to 2nd Lockdown?

Gold last traded at $1,724 an ounce. Silver at $17.44 an ounce.

NEWS SUMMARY: Precious metal prices eased back Thursday on short-term profit-taking and a firmer dollar. U.S. stocks fell, led by the tech sector, as investors digested rising weekly unemployment data.

Odey Says Governments May Make Private Gold Ownership Illegal -Bloomberg/Yahoo Finance
"Crispin Odey, one of Europe's highest-profile hedge fund managers, said that governments may ban private gold ownership if they lose control of inflation in the wake of the coronavirus crisis. 'It is no surprise that people are buying gold. But the authorities may attempt at some point to de-monetise gold, making it illegal to own as a private individual,' Odey wrote in a letter to investors seen by Bloomberg. 'They will only do this if they feel the need to create a stable unit of account for world trade.'....Fear of government confiscation is a common theme among some of gold's most ardent supporters, who point for precedent to the U.S. government's forced purchases of private bullion holdings in 1933 as part of a devaluation of the dollar. The price of gold was raised from $20.67 an ounce to $35, where it remained until the U.S. ended the gold standard in 1971....Odey, who has previously compared the current pandemic to the Great Depression of the 1930s, argued that central banks would fail to contain inflation as the economy eventually recovers from the impact of global lockdowns. 'History is filled with examples where rulers have, in moments of crisis, resorted to debasing the coinage,' he wrote. Odey is not alone in betting that gold will benefit as high inflation follows the coronavirus crisis."

snake Will Americans submit to a 2nd lockdown? -Buchanan/WND
"The country, as a whole, is, and has been, opening up. Sunday's New York Times reports that, for weeks now, more than two-thirds of the states have been relaxing restrictions as Trump had urged. The reasons: weariness with the lockdown and sheltering in place, a growing belief that the worst of the pandemic is behind us and undeniably positive news from several fronts in the coronavirus war....The number of deaths has fallen from 2,200 a day in April to closer to 1,400 a day in mid-May...As of Friday, the rate of new cases of the coronavirus was declining in 19 states and rising in only three....Clearly, the opening in many states has been driven by popular protest and public demand. Crowds have ignored social distancing to demonstrate for an end to the shutdown...The protesters seem to be saying: We deplore the losses and know the risks, but we cannot live our lives behind closed doors in our homes until the elites tell us, as though we were children, when we may go out in the yard. Hence, the next question we are all likely to confront: If there is a sudden resurgence of the coronavirus, a second wave, and the media elite and blue-state governors demand a new shutdown...will the people of this republic comply with those demands or defy them? Will the nation answer back to the elites: We did that...But, now, with the shutdown having put 36 million Americans on unemployment and sunk our GDP to Depression-era levels, we're going back to work....The proponents of a second shutdown will be liberal governors and mayors, the mainstream media and the Nancy Pelosi wing of Congress. It should not go unmentioned that the latter's political interests are best served the longer the shutdown endures and the worse the economic situation on Nov. 3. If the economy has failed to begin a robust recovery by fall, the greater the odds that Joe Biden wins the White House. Yet, even if the pandemic returns in the fall, the establishment cannot keep the country closed indefinitely."

Nearly Half of U.S. Households Have Lost Income Since Lockdowns Started -Wall Street Journal
"Nearly half of American households have lost income in the two months since the coronavirus pandemic led to a nationwide economic shutdown and more than a third expect to lose income over the next four weeks, the Census Bureau said in a new report....The first round of results showed the breadth of the economic dislocations attributable to efforts to slow the spread of the pandemic. They also show an expectation that the pandemic will continue to hurt households despite the steady reopening of economic activity in states across the country. Among the hardest hit were states heavily reliant on tourism or the energy industry, industries that have seen sharp declines as a result of the pandemic....Younger households and those with lower incomes or education levels were also more likely to report they lost income, the data showed. Earlier this month, the Labor Department said roughly 20.5 million jobs disappeared in April, pushing up the unemployment rate to a record 14.7%."

Let's Make This Crisis the (Grand) Mother of Invention -Freedman/Philanthropy
"'Stay home, stay safe.' When it comes to the heightened vulnerability of America's elders in the face of Covid-19, these are often wise words. But the unwritten injunction might as well be 'Stay home, stay safe, and stay out of the way.'...The insidious implication is that older people are exclusively the objects of service, helpless not helpers, anything but essential. What a contrast to the thousands of older doctors, nurses, and health care workers who are working the front lines, many of them coming out of retirement to do so. Reminders, all of them, of older adults' vast reservoir of experience and how desperately it's needed today. Nowhere is the need more dire than in the lives of America's children. Already acquiring the moniker of Generation C (for Covid), millions of young people have had their schooling upended....Where to turn for help? The one natural resource in this country that is both untapped and growing: older people. The ones who have no interest in staying out of the way...It's a match as old as time. Researchers have shown that the needs and assets of the generations fit together like the pieces of a jigsaw puzzle....The Harvard Study of Adult Development shows that these bonds are a key to happiness in later life. Older people who connect with younger ones, the study shows, are three times as likely to be happy as those who fail to do so. And happiness is just the start. Other research underscores that older mentors, tutors, and 'community grandparents' - unrelated but no less devoted - reap significant gains to their physical and mental health from spending time with kids....With so many grandparents unable to hug their grandchildren - it might be hard to envision how older people can step up to nurture millions of other people's kids. But crisis can be the (grand) mother of invention. To help stop learning losses - the so-called Covid slide - caused by school shutdowns, nonprofits across the country are working hard to move tutoring and mentoring programs online. Mentor and iCouldBe have joined forces to create the Virtual Mentoring Portal, a free tool to help nonprofits move mentoring relationships online....Our generation has not done all we can for the next one. But it's not too late to turn that around - with innovative ideas, programs and technologies, and the power of millions of people who want to stay safe but refuse to stay out of the way any longer. Let's come forward, roll up our sleeves, and help young people navigate the rocky road ahead."

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5.20.20 - Cash Under Suspicion

Gold last traded at $1,750 an ounce. Silver at $17.99 an ounce.

NEWS SUMMARY: Precious metal prices rose Wednesday amid economic uncertainty and a sharply lower dollar. U.S. stocks rose on upbeat retail earnings, as traders continue to grapple with market volatility this week.

Gold gains as recession looms even as economies reopen -CNBC
"Gold prices rose on Tuesday on uncertainty over how economies would emerge from a deep slowdown...'All the fundamentals for gold have never been better in history. Unless we have more optimism about the vaccine, we will begin to see an upward momentum to a new high,' said Jeffrey Sica, founder of Circle Squared Alternative Investments. 'There's continued concern about these pockets of outbreak around the world... any news of a setback in re-integration of businesses into the economy will ultimately lead gold higher.' Massive global stimulus measures to limit the economic damage caused by lockdowns and business suspensions to limit the spread of the coronavirus have supported gold, since it's widely viewed as a hedge against inflation and currency debasement....'We're looking at a weaker economic outlook, massive central bank measures and tensions on the geopolitical front, which should keep gold prices high,' said Saxo Bank analyst Ole Hansen."

chart Four Long Cycles Align: Our Fate Is Sealed, Vaccines Won't Matter -Charles Hugh Smith Blog
"We like to think we're in charge and that technology conquers all, but history moves in cycles that are larger than any person, corporation, elite or (gasp) technology...The study of cycles is the study of human nature as it plays out in long-term social, political and economic dynamics....The Covid-19 pandemic is the final kick into the abyss. Triggers of collapse can overlap, of course, accelerating the final decline, and hence our interest in long-wave cycles that align in the present era. All complex, tightly bound systems are intrinsically fragile and prone to disruption; we don't see the fragility or vulnerabilities until the decline has reached the terminal phase. The higher up the wealth-power pyramid the observer is, the more prone they are to a magical-thinking belief that the status quo is forever, even as it is crumbling around them. Let's consider the four overlapping/aligning cycles depicted on this chart... The four cycles depicted are: 1. The cycle of credit expansion and contraction, which is now in the final blow-off stage of unsustainable credit expansion (bubble) which will inevitably lead to renunciation of debt (credit collapse) and global depression. 2. The generational cycle (4 generations or approximately 80 years) of American history which leads to nation-changing social, political and economic upheaval (The American Revolution: 1781 +80 years = Civil War, 1861 +80 years = 1941, World War II + 80 years = 2021) as described in the book The Fourth Turning. 3. The 100+ year cycle of price inflation and stagnation of wages' purchasing-power, which began around 1901 is now reaching the final stage of widespread turmoil, shortages, famine, conflict and crisis. 4. The demographic cycle: the workforce stops expanding and starts shrinking while the population of dependent elderly explodes higher, triggering a decline in earnings and the tax base just as taxes must increase to pay for the care of the rising population of elderly.....The future won't be as placid, secure and predictable as the status quo would have you believe."

Cash, long a refuge in uncertain times, now under suspicion -Associated Press
"In troubled times, people have been known to hoard currency at home - a financial security blanket against deep uncertainty. But in this crisis, things are different...This time cash itself, passed from hand to hand across neighborhoods, cities and societies just like the coronavirus, is a source of suspicion rather than reassurance. No longer a thing to be shoved mindlessly into a pocket, tucked into a worn wallet or thrown casually on a kitchen counter, money's status has changed during the virus era - perhaps irrevocably. The pandemic has also reawakened debate about the continued viability of what has been the physical lifeblood of global economies: paper money and coins. From the supermarkets of the United States and Japan to the shantytowns of Africa to the gas stations of Tehran, a growing number of businesses and individuals worldwide have stopped using banknotes in fear that physical currency, handled by tens of thousands of people over their useful life, could be a vector for the spreading coronavirus. Public officials and health experts have said that the risk of transferring the virus from person to person through the use of money is minimal. That hasn't stopped businesses from refusing to accept currency, and some countries from urging citizens to stop using banknotes altogether....'Cash combined with courage in a crisis is priceless,' billionaire investor Warren Buffett says."

30% Of Americans Have Raided Retirement Savings During Coronavirus Lockdown -Study Finds
"The coronavirus lockdown has caused an economic crisis that's taking a toll on many Americans. Not only are their wallets getting thinner but a new survey shows that three in ten Americans have dipped into their retirement savings to help cover their expenses. MagnifyMoney commissioned a survey of 1,239 Americans who have retirement accounts...The survey shows that 30% of Americans have withdrawn an average of $6,757.20 from their retirement savings from about March 1 through May 1. Another 19% responded that they have not taken money out yet but they plan to do so. About a third of respondents have tapped into another investment account instead of retirement. Just over 50% of the people who are making withdrawals from their retirement accounts are doing so to help cover their expenses during the lockdown. A quarter of respondents are withdrawing money after losing their job....The survey also reveals how people have been spending the retirement money they're withdrawing. Sixty percent are using their savings pay for groceries, 42% to pay for bills, 31% on rent and mortgage payments and 27% on debt payments....Nearly half of the people who normally save for retirement have changed their savings plan during this time. About one in five (21%) have reduced their retirement contributions and another 26% have put their contributions on pause. Analysis by generation shows that 53% of baby boomers, the generation closest to using their retirement savings, have stopped contributing entirely."

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5.19.20 - Gold: Longest Winning Streak Since 2011

Gold last traded at $1,744 an ounce. Silver at $17.87 an ounce.

NEWS SUMMARY: Precious metal prices rose Tuesday on safe-haven buying and a weaker dollar. U.S. stocks fell ahead of testimony by Treasury Secretary Mnuchin and Fed Chairman Powell to Congress on the economic response to the coronavirus pandemic.

Gold Soars as Fed Sounds Warnings on Asset Prices, US Recovery -FX Empire/Yahoo
"Bullion has now gained about 11.7 percent since March 31 and is set to post a 7th straight quarterly gain, which is the longest such streak since 2011. From a fundamental perspective, the gold surge appears to have been triggered by warnings out of the Federal Reserve about potential asset price declines if the coronavirus 'pandemic takes an unexpected course, the economic fallout prove adverse, or financial system strains reemerge'. Fed chair Jerome Powell also mentioned in a recent interview that the US economy's recovery might last through the end of 2021, provided a reliable Covid-19 vaccine can be rolled out by then. Such comments out of the world's most influential central bank adds to the risk aversion among global investors who are clearly flocking to the safety that Bullion offers....Bullion bulls are relishing any opportunity to push gold prices higher, with $1800 appearing to be just around the corner."

world The U.S. Is in a Generational Economic Cycle -Bonner/Rogue Economics
"In the Panic of 1857, the yield on the U.S. 10-Year Treasury Note rose to 6.6%. It took a lifetime for it to reach the next top, in 1920. Then, another 61 years passed before the next top came along. In other words, these are generational trends. One generation learns....Now, we learn - again - why, for 180 years, U.S. dollars were linked to gold, rather than simply to promises from the U.S. government. In a nutshell, it's because the generation of 1791 (when the U.S. dollar first appeared) knew something the generation of 2020 has forgotten: Power corrupts. And the power to create 'money' is so irresistible that no race, no nation, no genius, and no government official has ever resisted it for long....First, they created an impaired economy, already on fake-money life support. Then, they shut it down in order to stop the spread of a virus. As a result, sales, profits, earnings, jobs, tax revenues - all are collapsing. We've already seen that the Universal Lockdown was one of the most monstrous mistakes ever made by public officials. The odds of death are 1,000 times greater for an 80-year-old man than for a 30-year-old female. It would have been relatively easy to protect the vulnerable groups (including your editor) until the threat had passed. Simply tell them the truth! Most of the codgers are already retired anyway...It would have cost the economy very little....Retail sales figures for April show the biggest drop in 70 years....Bar and restaurant incomes have been cut in half. One out of four restaurants is not expected to ever reopen. Private schools and universities, too"¦ towns, counties, and state governments"¦ households - Chapter 11 is going to be the most searched-for term on Google....Neither Wall Street nor Washington has even begun to reckon with the damage. But all of that is just prelude to the real catastrophe. Next up: We find out that printing fake money to cover the losses is an EVEN WORSE idea. America's paper money system began on August 15, 1971, when Richard Nixon somberly announced the end of the Bretton Woods system that fixed the U.S. dollar to gold. We're 49 years into it already. In 10-20 years, the cycle should be complete. By then, prices should be rising at 50% or more per year. And if we're right, the fake dollar - the green piece of paper that is in your wallet - should be history."

The Pandemic's Geopolitical Aftershocks Are Coming -The Altlantic
"With most European countries confident that they are past the worst of the coronavirus pandemic, their attention is turning to the chance of its resurgence once society returns to some semblance of normal...The geopolitical second wave, and its power is already starting to concern Western leaders. Imagine a scenario: Just as Europe and the United States begin to feel as if they have the coronavirus under control, it takes hold in the developing world. Exhausted, indebted, and desperate for their own economies to get back up to speed, richer countries are too slow to help. Panic ensues...Somewhere, a state defaults on debt held largely by Western financial institutions. In the chaos, an autocrat eyes an opportunity for a land grab. A United States already unwilling to take the lead leaves China to step into the void....The array of possible second-wave consequences is dizzying: the prospect of the disease taking hold in a developing G20 country - think India - which could see the virus quickly doubling back to Europe and the U.S.; the uncertain impact of technological advances in fields such as artificial intelligence as they are used to help combat the disease's spread; a recession pulling at the ties between the European Union's poor south and wealthy north....More than anything, though, for Western governments there is a simple underlying reality to the geopolitical second wave: cash, or a lack of it. 'You've got more problems but less money to deal with them,' one senior adviser to the British government, who asked for anonymity to speak candidly about internal deliberations, told me....Whether the pandemic brings about revolutionary change or simply accelerates the currents already working under the surface, the fact is that the epidemiological second wave isn't the only one we need to worry about."

Moderna's coronavirus vaccine shows encouraging early results -Washington Post
"Moderna, the Massachusetts biotechnology company behind a leading effort to create a coronavirus vaccine, announced promising early results from its first human safety tests Monday. The company plans to launch a large clinical trial in July aimed at showing whether the vaccine works. The company reported that in eight patients who had been followed for a month and a half, the vaccine at low and medium doses triggered blood levels of virus-fighting antibodies that were similar or greater than those found in patients who recovered. That would suggest, but doesn't prove, that it triggers some level of immunity....The data released Monday by Moderna is encouraging, but represents only a first step in a long process to bring a vaccine to market. It comes from an interim report on dozens of patients followed over weeks, whereas vaccine studies require broad testing in thousands of patients followed over many months or years....The interim data comes from a clinical trial aimed at showing the safety of its experimental vaccine and helping the company select the correct dose. The company has not yet picked the final dose, or announced the size or length of the large trial that it will start in July, which will be the key one that regulators consider to decide whether the vaccine is safe and effective."

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5.18.20 - Will CV-19 Force You To Retire Early?

Gold last traded at $1,736 an ounce. Silver at $17.49 an ounce.

NEWS SUMMARY: Precious metal prices rose Monday on safe-haven buying and a weaker dollar. U.S. stocks rebounded as news from a Moderna trial stoked investor optimism about a potential coronavirus vaccine.

Gold, Silver Higher on Fear of Second Virus Wave -Bloomberg
"Gold jumped toward its peak in April, when prices hit the highest since 2012, after bleak U.S. government data underscored how hard coronavirus-related shutdowns have hit the world's largest economy. Friday gold futures posted the highest close to a week since October 2012 after U.S. factory production plummeted in April by the most in records back to 1919, and a gauge of U.S. retail sales plunged through the record set just a month earlier. 'Everybody must have realized it, but it's just more evidence that the reality is this is a pretty bleak economic picture right now,' Phil Streible, chief market strategist for Blue Line Futures LLC, said by phone. 'People are continuing to pile into gold because that weak economic picture is going to continue to drive interest rates lower.' Silver also got a stronger bid, rallying to the highest in over two months. The two precious metals have been lifted after Fed Chairman Jerome Powell warned last week that the pandemic will take a heavy toll on the economy. ....Nations that enjoyed success quelling the virus, including South Korea and China, now face a rising number of infections. In the U.S., Texas saw its deadliest day and its biggest jump in new cases since the start of the outbreak. That comes two weeks after controversial moves to reopen the state's economy."

work Will You Be Forced To Retire Early Because Of The Coronavirus? -Forbes
"We are being asked to stay home thanks to the COVID-19 pandemic. This disease may be forcing many worker to stay home for much longer than they want, perhaps turning a layoff into a forced retirement....Under normal circumstances, millions of Americans have had to retire early. With the economy at a near standstill due to the COVID-19 stay-at-home orders, many workers may be forced into early retirement. Most people think the full retirement age is 65...Seventy is the target for those looking to get the absolute largest monthly retirement income from Social Security. As a financial planner, I am fortunate to be working with many business owners who plan to never retire because they have so much passion for what they do....According to a recent survey by Allianz Life titled, '2020 Retirement Risk Readiness Study,' many Americans won't have much flexibility in choosing when they leave the workforce and enter retirement. More than half of workers will be forced out of the workforce earlier than expected and for reasons out of their control. By the way, the survey was conducted in January 2020 before the full weight of the coronavirus hit the U.S. economy. From the study, 34% of respondents said they left the workforce because of an unanticipated job loss...Another 25% percent of respondents listed health issues as the reason for retiring....People are worried about running out of money in retirement. According to the survey, 60% of respondents said that was their biggest concern while 55% of non-retirees were concerned they wouldn't have enough saved by the time they retired. I was not surprised to see that worry wasn't translated into action....There is no better time than now to get started planning for your dream retirement. Social Security will not provide enough income for most of you to live comfortably."

Pandemic Bills Are So Big That Only Money-Printing Can Pay Them -Bloomberg/Yahoo Finance
"Forced into record spending by the threat of another Great Depression, policy makers are blurring the lines between borrowing the money they need and simply creating it...Those barriers began to look porous after the financial crisis of 2008. And in the coronavirus slump, they've all but disappeared. With entire industries shuttered and unemployment soaring, only public spending is keeping millions of households and businesses afloat. The governments on the hook for this relief effort are running up some of history's biggest budget deficits. 'We've had a merger of monetary and fiscal policy,' says Paul McCulley, the former chief economist at Pacific Investment Management Co. 'We've broken down the church-and-state separation between the two.'....Behind the longstanding taboo against what is known as 'monetizing debt' lies the fear of inflation. History is full of episodes when politicians grabbed control of the printing presses and splashed too much money around the economy, causing prices to spiral out of control and eroding the real value of all kinds of savings, from bank accounts to bond portfolios....There was no real alternative, according to Stephen Roach, a senior lecturer at Yale. 'The economy is in the biggest hole it's ever been in, so we need massive fiscal stimulus,' he said. 'The central bank has to be brought in to fund it.' That doesn't mean there are no consequences, said Roach, a former nonexecutive chairman of Morgan Stanley in Asia. In the U.S., the Fed-backed spending spree means that 'inflation is likely to begin moving up post-virus,' he said."

U.S. Adults Report Less Worry, More Happiness -Gallup
"As many states have begun to reopen their economies and many more are making plans to do so, Americans are reporting improvements in their emotional health. Although the coronavirus crisis persists, less than half of U.S. adults (47%) now say they worried a lot of the previous day - down from 59% in late March/early April, when Gallup recorded an unprecedented increase in self-reported worry. In addition to the 12-percentage-point drop in worry, boredom has dipped five points, to 41%, and happiness has edged up five points, to 72%....These findings are from an online, probability-based Gallup Panel survey that has tracked Americans' emotional wellbeing during the coronavirus pandemic since March 23. The latest data are from interviews conducted April 27-May 10, as a number of states started lifting stay-at-home orders and business restrictions. Just as Americans' views of many aspects of the COVID-19 situation differ by demographic subgroup, so too do their emotions during this unprecedented crisis. In particular, the greatest differences in emotions are seen by household income, party identification, marital status and gender. Bottom Line: The pandemic has taken an emotional toll on the public, as self-reported worry soared during the first month of restrictions put in place to limit the spread of COVID-19. In recent weeks, however, Americans have experienced less negative emotions and have reported an increase in happiness. Although much of the country is now taking steps to embark on a path to some kind of normalcy, more than 80,000 Americans have lost their lives as a result of the disease, and COVID-19 cases are still on the rise in a handful of states. The trajectory of Americans' emotional wellbeing may depend greatly on what happens with the disease as restrictions are eased."

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5.15.20 - Billionaires Sounding Alarm About Stocks

Gold last traded at $1,751 an ounce. Silver at $17.00 an ounce.

NEWS SUMMARY: Precious metal prices rose further Friday on safe-haven buying and a weaker dollar. U.S. stocks traded mixed following a record 16.4% plunge in April retail sales and rising trade tensions between China and the U.S.

Powell Sends a Message With Love for Gold -FX Empire/Yahoo Finance
"Jerome Powell gave a speech yesterday at the Peterson Institute for International Economics. The Fed Chair acknowledged the unprecedented depth of the coronavirus crisis, and its disastrous impact for the US labor market....There are three key takeaways from Powell's speech...1) The Fed Chair rejected the idea of negative interest rates. He noted that the evidence on the effectiveness of these monetary policy experiments conducted by the Bank of Japan and the European Central Bank 'is very mixed'....2) Powell acknowledged...the V-shaped rebound is unlikely and there are important downside risks on the way to recovery...'The path ahead is both highly uncertain and subject to significant downside risks.' These grim words pushed the stock markets down on Wednesday. Importantly, Powell noted that the longer the recession takes, the more problematic it might become, as 'the passage of time can turn liquidity problems into solvency problems.' The implication is that the safe-haven demand for gold should remain robust for a while, and gold is still a good portfolio's diversifier....3) Powell suggested that the Fed's policy toolkit could expand in the future. He said that while the Fed's response to the crisis 'has been both timely and appropriately large, it may not be the final chapter'....It means that we could see more fiscal deficits and even higher federal debt in the near future."

stocks Wall Street Heavyweights Are Sounding Alarm About Stocks -Bloomberg/Yahoo Finance
"The biggest names in finance are coming around to a view that seemed unlikely a few weeks ago: Stocks are vastly overvalued. Legendary investors Stan Druckenmiller and David Tepper were the latest to weigh in after a historic market rebound, saying the risk-reward of holding shares is the worst they've encountered in years. Druckenmiller on Tuesday called a V-shaped recovery - the idea the economy will quickly snap back as the coronavirus pandemic eases - a 'fantasy.' Tepper said Wednesday that next to 1999, equities are overvalued the most he's ever seen. It's a notion catching on among Wall Street money managers. And it's coming as investors start to suspect that the Federal Reserve's support, as well as $3 trillion in Treasury stimulus, may not be enough to compensate for soaring unemployment, a wave of bankruptcies and no end in sight to the pandemic. Managers including Bill Miller, Paul Singer and Paul Tudor Jones have all voiced doubts about markets or the economy. Such bearishness starkly contrasts with the optimism that pushed the S&P 500 Index up 26% from its March low....Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell, Trump's pick for the job, outlined a doom-laden scenario with mass bankruptcies and unemployment in a speech delivered Wednesday....Tepper, who runs the $13 billion Appaloosa hedge fund, told CNBC on Wednesday that valuations are 'nuts' for some individual stocks on the Nasdaq....Other marquee investors also have taken more defensive stances recently. Tudor Jones, who runs Tudor Investment Corp., told clients in early May he was investing in gold."

What the Pandemic Revealed: a Morally Bankrupt Culture -Charles Hugh Smith Blogspot
"What was 'normal' for the past two decades was to turn a blind eye to the moral and financial bankruptcy of the American culture, the rot at the heart of its social, political and economic orders. The pandemic has shredded the putrid facade and revealed the rot....What's been absolutely verboten is to call legalized pillage and predation what they really are: evil....By stripping fraud and predation of moral consequence, we've covered the putrid rot with a thoroughly modern amorality which we can summarize as anything goes and winner takes all....The greater the outrage of the technocrats and monopolists at being called what they are - evil - the greater the confirmation that the accusation is spot-on. The predators, looters and exploiters must strip away any moral assessment of their actions, as even the smallest shred of moral or karmic justice threatens their empires....Monopolies and cartels are evil because they are exploitive by their very nature. This is why the political system imposed anti-trust legislation in the early 20th century....Dear shareholders and monopolists: the banquet of consequences is being served. Don't choke on the cold serving of karma."

Creativity Flourishes, Even Amid a Pandemic -Reason
"It was going to be the party of the year: my 50th birthday. I rented a fantastic place, picked a great menu, and sent funny invitations...I was counting down the weeks. Then COVID-19 hit. Lockdowns were ordered. No party for me. Yet what replaced it was the purest expression of the best that humanity has to offer, springing from creative forces that neither this virus - nor other negative forces - can kill....And what replaced the party was so much more meaningful and amazing because it was fueled by my friends' love and creativity, and by the amazing innovators who make coping with the isolation more tolerable. When I woke up, I was greeted by a video from my oldest friend in France: a fun musical performance of the 'Happy Birthday' song performed with a piano and homemade instruments, recorded on an iPhone and sent over the Atlantic Ocean in mere seconds, free of charge. None of that would have been possible had I turned 50 in 2007. Then came the Zoom family reunion with cousins in three countries, three continents, and two hemispheres. While Zoom was created in 2011, the company has quickly become a household name and a business essential during the pandemic....Remarkably, I drank in this love and well-wishing all from the comfort of my bed. I soon discovered another gift at 11 a.m...As I opened my front door, I discovered a beautiful sign wishing me a happy birthday. It was festooned with balloons and cupcakes right there in my front yard, all orchestrated by my loving friends Ashley and Kevin....In the end, nothing surprised me more than the way my friends managed to reinvent my birthday celebration in this time of pandemic with a giant drive-by caravan of honking, decorated cars filled with cheering from people I cherish....I will never forget it, and I will always marvel at people's endless ability to love, connect, and create."

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5.14.20 - Lockdown: A Luxury Many Americans Can't Afford

Gold last traded at $1,738 an ounce. Silver at $16.13 an ounce.

NEWS SUMMARY: Precious metal prices rose Thursday on safe-haven buying amid downbeat economic data. U.S. stocks fell sharply - extending their steep losses this week - as investors digested the coronavirus' devastating toll of 36 million lost jobs in the past eight weeks.

Companies' Next Coronavirus Challenge: Getting Cash-Strapped Shoppers to Spend -Wall Street Journal
"Companies like Kellogg, Hershey and Nestle are tapping the lessons of the last recession as they seek ways to keep newly frugal consumers from trading down. The makers of shampoo, cereal, frozen pizza and other supermarket staples are working to woo shoppers who are cutting back on spending, as tough economic times set in....'We've studied what worked well and what did not in past recessions and how this one could be different,' Kellogg's Chief Executive Officer Steve Cahillane recently told investors. 'We're preparing ourselves.' Preparing for a downturn this time around is tougher, executives say, because the potential for wider spread or a second occurrence of the new coronavirus isn't yet known. Consumer-products companies are already scrambling to meet surging demand for household essentials while operating factories at lower capacity because of worker sickness or social distancing....The Covid-19 recession is expected to be deeper and more global than the financial crisis of 2008-09. The International Monetary Fund has forecast the world economy would shrink by 3% this year, compared with a contraction of 0.1% in 2009....'A significant number of American households are not working and experiencing meaningful financial pressures,' said CEO Michele Buck. 'Their shopping priorities have changed.'....'Some of the mistakes made across categories in recessions is a hunkering-down mentality,' said Kellogg's Mr. Cahillane. 'People still want good news. People want fun. They want to try things in an affordable way.'"

gold chart Why Gold Is Your Best Bet -Dyson/Rogue Economics
"Why gold? Have a look at this chart. It tracks the gains in gold prices and the Dow since 2000"¦ You can see that since valuations started their long walk down the mountain in 2000, gold has outperformed stocks 5-to-1....The Dow-to-Gold ratio is the ultimate barometer of systemic 'health.' It tracks the 30 Dow Jones stocks, as priced in gold. And it tells us the best time to buy gold"¦ and the best time to buy stocks....For example, the high in the Dow-to-Gold ratio in 1999 (when it took more than 40 ounces of gold to buy the Dow) mirrors the towering peak in stock valuations"¦ right before the dot-com crash in 2000. At its most recent high in October 2018, the Dow-to-Gold ratio was just above 22. It's been falling ever since"¦ a signal that the system is going to break soon. Maybe it's started to break already? Since the outbreak of the coronavirus pandemic, the government has gone into hyperdrive trying to 'manage' the economy - with more financial engineering, more unsound money, bigger deficits, and more soothing words"¦As I write, the Dow-to-Gold ratio is at 13.9. I expect it to fall below 5 - what Bill Bonner calls its 'rendezvous with destiny' - in the next five to 10 years. Until then, we're sticking with gold."

Why Restarting the Global Economy Won't be Easy -Georgia Tech
"As the world contemplates ending a massive lockdown implemented in response to COVID-19, Vinod Singhal is considering what will happen when we hit the play button and the engines that drive industry and trade squeal back to life again. Singhal, who studies operations strategy and supply chain management at the Georgia Institute of Technology, has a few ideas on how to ease the transition to the new reality. But this pandemic makes it hard to predict what that reality will be....COVID-19 represents a new kind of mystery when it comes to something as complex and critical to the world's economy as the global supply chain, for a number of reasons that Singhal highlighted: 1) The global spread of the virus and duration of the pandemic. 'We have no idea when it will be under control and whether it will resurface,' Singhal said....2) Both the demand and supply side of the global supply chain are disrupted. 'We're not only seeing a lot of factories shutting down, which affects the supply side, but there are restrictions on demand, too, because you can't just go out and shop like you used to, at least for the time being,' he said....3) Longer lead times. 'We get close to a trillion dollars of products annually from Asian countries, about $500 billion from China,' Singhal said...Logistics and distribution has been disrupted and needs to ramp up again will increase lead time....4) Supply chains have little slack, and little spare inventory...Small and medium sized companies in China 'have less than three months of cash. Many of these companies may go bankrupt,' he added."

The coronavirus lockdown is a luxury many Americans can't afford -New York Post
"This month there has been a distinct dissonance in the national atmosphere - even more so than usual, which is saying something. It went from resigned despair to collective rage and protests. Protests which, for the most part, are not unreasonable....People like Texas salon owner Shelley Luther - who peacefully opened her hair salon in Dallas despite a stay-at-home order in a state with 34,000 cases of COVID-19 and 946 deaths. She was sentenced to seven days in jail and a $7,000 fine but the judge told her he would commute her sentence if she admitted her actions were selfish - to which she replied (while wearing a face mask): 'I have to disagree with you, sir, when you say that I am selfish because feeding my kids is not selfish. I have hair stylists that are going hungry because they'd rather feed their kids'"¦..Luther was jailed although the state's attorney general and governor called for her release, which came two days later. AG Ken Paxton said: 'I find it outrageous and out of touch that during this national pandemic, a judge, in a county that actually released hardened criminals for fear of contracting COVID-19, would jail a mother for operating her hair salon in an attempt to put food on her family's table.'....Working-class and blue-collar people, many of whom live month to month, are destitute right now. Mortgages and rent are due and there are miles-long lines for food banks in several states....Since COVID hit, 33 million Americans have sought unemployment....I am scared of COVID-19. But I am even more terrified about what is coming after the rage of millions tears this country apart. Because for many Americans, the lockdown is a luxury they can't afford."

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5.13.20 - TRACE Act: Devilish Gov't Surveillance Plot?

Gold last traded at $1,718 an ounce. Silver at $15.69 an ounce.

NEWS SUMMARY: Precious metal prices rose Wednesday on Fed's promise of additional stimulus plans. U.S. stocks traded mostly lower following downbeat remarks from Fed chairman Jerome Powell amid jitters about reopening the economy.

Gold Prices: Undervaluation, Smart Money Piles Up -Market Realist
"In times of uncertainty and fear, gold usually rises due to its safe-haven demand. Currently, to avoid the looming slowdown due to COVID-19, central banks engage in an easy money policy...The move will have ripple effects through economies, most of which are positive for gold. On one hand, economic stimulus packages will lead to currency devaluations, which should prop gold up. On the other hand, easy money, without any corresponding rise in output, will lead to inflation. This scenario is positive for gold. Now, hedge funds have also started jumping into gold....According to Financial Times, Elliott Management's Paul Singer told his clients that gold was 'one of the most undervalued' assets currently and its fair value is 'multiples of its current price.' Many other market participants including ANZ bank also think that gold is undervalued and could push higher. Gold prices are undervalued compared to equities....Apart from hedge fund managers, analysts are also making a case for gold. Bank of America expects gold prices to reach $3,000 per ounce in 18 months."

boats After Coronavirus, Government Will Have to Shrink -Harper/Wall Street Journal
"In the response to the coronavirus pandemic, leftists see a model for the future. 'Not only will America need a massive dose of big government to get out of this crisis,' one wrote, 'but we will need big, and wise, government more than ever in its aftermath.' As a conservative, I'm going to argue the opposite...A new era of big government in the economy is unlikely, undesirable and far from inevitable....So why doesn't this herald a new age of big government? It's simple: All this intervention has been economically ruinous. No amount of money can fully compensate for social-distancing actions whose effect is to shut down large segments of the economy. Tens of millions have lost jobs, and many thousands have lost businesses. In most cases, compensation from the state is a fraction of what they were earning. Many of the measures are necessary to combat Covid-19, although we will be able to evaluate them with any certainty only after the crisis. Yet there's little doubt that the economic damage is staggering....When focus shifts from the pandemic to the economy, it will need to shift from a lot more government action to a lot less. People turn to government for security. Conservatives understand that security is fundamental to why government exists. Right now, as in wartime, we face extreme needs for physical and financial security. But as needs shift to jobs, growth and wealth creation - and those needs will be enormous - it will require more market activity and a bigger private sector, not more intervention and bigger government....'Modern monetary theorists' will prattle on about how with low interest rates and monetary expansion this does not matter. Their core belief - that governments can never really run out of money - is nonsensical....Despite the unsustainable nature of today's spending, opposition this time may even be stronger. Many workers have been reduced to limited stipends by government-ordered shutdowns, leading to renewed calls for a 'guaranteed minimum income.'....Governments that resist restoring free enterprise and fiscal responsibility will experience recession and stagnation. Those that do the right things will lead their countries to a far more prosperous future."

'First bonds, then stocks' - Investors could get hit with two crashes by end of the year -Fund Manager/Marketwatch
"On Feb. 27, Michael Gayed called for a double-digit drop on the S&P 500. He followed that timely prediction in March with a forecast for a melt-up in stocks at the end of the month....If he's got it right again, the pain is far from over for investors. 'Risk-off is about to return in two waves - first bonds, then stocks. Two crashes,' Gayed, who also publishes the Lead-Lag Report, told MarketWatch. He explained that he sees a 'significant risk' that the yield curve steepens in a way that will shock markets and trigger a crash in Treasurys. 'Reflation bets are increasing everywhere, and oil printing a negative price in the face of that suggests there is a very real feeling that global central banks and governments will stop at nothing to counter the deflationary forces of staying at home,' Gayed said...'Combined with unlimited QE, which in the past has caused yields to rise, it looks like bonds collapse first before stocks.'....As for the timeline, Gayed said it could all take place before year's end. 'This feels like a home construction project. It's going to cost more money and take longer than any estimates,' he said of the pandemic. 'In the absence of a vaccine, behavior's changed in a way that will make any longer-term gains unjustified no matter how much money Papa Powell prints.'"

H.R. 6666 a devil of a COVID-19 government surveillance plot -Washington Times
"A House resolution from Illinois Democrat Rep. Bobby Rush that would put Big Government in charge of tracking citizens' movements as they relate to COVID-19 mitigation efforts - even sending health bureaucrats to 'individuals' residences, as necessary,' as the legislation states - has a most apt number: 6666....After all, what's more devilishly un-American than launching one of the most massive government surveillance programs of private citizens in U.S. history, all under the guise of protecting people from the coronavirus? That's the 'COVID-19 Testing, Reaching, And Contacting Everyone (TRACE) Act' in all its $100 billion grant giveaway glory. According to H.R. 6666's text: The taxpayer funds will be used to 'trace and monitor the contacts of infected individuals, and to support the quarantine of such contacts, through mobile health units and, as necessary "¦ at [citizens'] residences.' That means government comes to your home, taps on your door and demands you take a COVID-19 test. And if you test positive, that means the government makes sure you stay at home. How? Good question....'Reopening our economy and getting back to normal will be all but impossible if we do not step up our testing efforts and implement robust and widespread contact tracing,' Rush said in a statement on his House webpage....Be afraid; be very afraid. The resolution has dozens of cosponsors."

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5.12.20 - Economic Recovery Won't Be V-Shaped

Gold last traded at $1,706 an ounce. Silver at $15.70 an ounce.

NEWS SUMMARY: Precious metal prices rose Tuesday on safe-haven buying and a weaker dollar. U.S. stocks traded mixed as investors evaluated the latest attempts to reopen the economy.

Gold To Shine One Way Or The Other -Seeking Alpha
"Gold has put up stellar returns since 2000 thanks to the exponential growth of central bank largess....For bearish investors who think the worst is yet to come, gold historically delivered precious returns when stocks raced from peak to bottom....During the worst S&P500 drawdowns of the last century...gold clearly has proved a precious hedge during the market selloffs....The real interesting observation is that gold performed better during the recovery phase after the stocks bottomed than during the sell-off phase. This is evident when looking at the absolute returns: median gold return during the recovery phase: 73% vs. 6-12% median return during the selloff....Therefore, gold can be a good portfolio allocation for both market bulls and bears because they don't need a crystal-ball-forecast of the stock market bottom. Nobody has a crystal ball."

acrobat Strangeness of the day: For Americans, an in-between moment -Associated Press
"In coming years, when they write the narrative histories of the 2020 pandemic - those paperweight-level volumes that reconstruct these strange days in painstaking and vivid detail - the past week in American life will be a particularly curious moment to unpack. It was unlike what came before, and almost certainly unlike what is still ahead....Job numbers confirmed what everyone already suspected: the worst unemployment rate since the Great Depression. The face mask evolved from a piece of protective equipment into a political litmus test....Right now, Americans are the insects, caught in amber, suspended for an uncertain moment between the isolation of a national shutdown and the revving up of a much-disputed return....The utter weirdness of this part of the COVID-19 storyline is its own distinct kind of crazy, where the road map has run out and the next page of the script is blank....Part of the problem, of course, is that those very circumstances have left many millions of people stuck in their homes with a lot of opportunity to contemplate their lot - and contemplate, and contemplate, and contemplate....Of course, the very existence of an in-between moment suggests two bookends. The first has already been laid down - and, for the fortunate, lived through. The second lies ahead. Will it provide clarity? That depends on this uniquely curious moment, and where it leads."

Why the Economic Recovery Will Be More of a 'Swoosh' Than V-Shaped -Wall Street Journal
"Until recently, many policy makers and corporate executives were hoping for a V-shaped economic recovery from the coronavirus pandemic: a short, sharp collapse followed by a bounce back to pre-virus levels of activity. Now, however, they expect a 'swoosh' recovery. Named after the Nike logo, it predicts a large drop followed by a painfully slow recovery, with many Western economies not back to 2019 levels of output until late next year - or beyond. The sobering new view reflects the depth of the contraction now being recorded for the spring, as well as more evidence that soaring joblessness and months or years of social distancing will depress economic activity well into next year. 'This is not going to be a quick recovery,' said Mark Schneider, chief executive of Nestle SA, the world's biggest packaged foods maker, recently. 'This is going to be a several-quarter, if not several-year kind of process.'....Consumer goods companies anticipate that shoppers will switch to cheaper items and forgo splurges, likely remaining tightfisted long after lockdowns end. Some corporations have already announced fresh layoffs for the fall, prolonging the joblessness surge that has already left more than 30 million Americans unemployed....According to a survey by market research group Coresight Research, more than 70% of Americans expect to avoid some public spaces after the lockdowns ease, with more than half saying they expect to stay away from shopping malls...The outlook is so uncertain that a string of large companies have suspended financial guidance for the year....'There is no such thing yet as a new normal. Nobody has the faintest idea of what the new normal looks like,' said Unilever CEO Alan Jope....It's a fair bet that the global economy is going to be deeply challenged in the years ahead."

Which Covid-19 Data Can You Trust? -Harvard Business Review
"The Covid-19 pandemic has created a tidal wave of data. As countries and cities struggle to grab hold of the scope and scale of the problem, tech corporations and data aggregators have stepped up, filling the gap with dashboards scoring social distancing based on location data from mobile phone apps and cell towers, contact-tracing apps using geolocation services and Bluetooth...In the face of uncertainty, these data can provide comfort - tangible facts in the face of many unknowns....However, incomplete or incorrect data can also muddy the waters, obscuring important nuances within communities, ignoring important factors such as socioeconomic realities, and creating false senses of panic or safety, not to mention other harms such as needlessly exposing private information. Right now, bad data could produce serious missteps with consequences for millions. While you may not be qualified to evaluate the particulars of every dashboard, chart, and study you see, there are common red flags to let you know data might not be reliable. Here's what to look out for: 1) Data products that are too broad, too specific, or lack context....Even data at an appropriate spatial resolution must be interpreted with caution - context is key....2) The technologies behind the data are unvetted or have limited utility. Tech solutions such as mobile phone-based contact tracing have untested potential, but only as part of a broader comprehensive strategy that includes a strong underlying health system....3) Models are produced and presented without appropriate expertise. Well-meaning technologists and highly influential consulting firms are advising governments, and consequently businesses and general populations around the world, on strategies to combat the epidemic....This pandemic has been studied more intensely in a shorter amount of time than any other human event...It is inevitable that there will be bad as well as good data in that mix. These massive, decentralized, and crowd-sourced data can reliably be converted to life-saving knowledge if tempered by expertise, transparency, rigor, and collaboration. When making your own decisions, read closely, trust carefully, and when in doubt, look to the experts."

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5.11.20 - 3 Reasons Gold Prices Are Exploding

Gold last traded at $1,698 an ounce. Silver at $15.68 an ounce.

NEWS SUMMARY: Precious metal prices held steady Monday despite a firmer dollar. U.S. stocks fell amid investor jitters about reopening the economy too soon.

3 Reasons Gold Prices Are Exploding - And Why the Party Isn't Over Yet -CCN
"Since careening below $1,500 an ounce on March 19, the price of gold has been rising steadily. It's already surged past $1,700, and some analysts believe it could set a new record above $2,000 within the imminent future. Here are three reasons why the yellow metal is soaring in 2020 - and why the party isn't over yet. 1. Gold Is (Still) a Safe-Haven Asset Against Global Uncertainty - Many investors view gold as a safe haven during crises like the coronavirus. Fear of a global economic downturn is driving investors towards the safety of the yellow metal....2. Fed's Stimulus Measures Fuel the Yellow Metal - The U.S. Federal Reserve's massive stimulus to support the economy is another factor that promises to drive gold prices higher. When central banks print more money in an attempt to stimulate the economy, it can increase inflation....3. Fears of a U.S.-China Trade War Make Gold a Solid Long-Term Hedge - Global political tensions should provide long-term support for gold prices even after the coronavirus crisis is over...As Trump and Beijing play the COVID-19 blame game, a trade war is becoming a growing possibility."

doors Americans Need Hope as Well as Safety -Noonan/Wall Street Journal
"Our economy is experiencing a great contraction...it's becoming smaller, tighter, more airless. As a nation we have rightly focused on the illness that caused all this and the fight to beat it back. That fight can't let up. When the disease goes down in one place it shows up in another, and a second or third wave is likely; viruses like this don't knock on the door just once. But the economic contraction will have repercussions as destructive as the virus itself. People will die and sicken because of lost jobs, lost income and a feeling of no opportunity, no possibility. Alcoholism, drug abuse, anxiety, suicide, strife within families - all these things will follow. And there's a feeling of terrible generational injustice. My generation is on pause, but the young are on stall, and it's no good for them....We have to see the unfolding economic calamity in a new, more present and urgent way, and think about its impact on our culture, our ability to fund things, our standing in the world, our morale....The bias now should be toward opening, doing everything we can to allow the economy to become itself again, to the degree that's possible. Toward that end, two thoughts from two wise men. The first is that we must unleash the creativity of businessmen and women, an uncalled-on brigade in this battle. Not only doctors and scientists will get us out of this, business must be on the lines, too. Second, we have to cooperate by doing the things that contain the illness so that businesses can stay open and functioning....The first wise man is George Shultz, a participant in and observer of history to whom I spoke by phone...'We have a potentially vibrant private sector. There's an immense amount of energy and ingenuity and fresh thinking there...We have to open things up and say to the private sector, 'Do your job.' They have creativity, they want to get things up and going again.' The second wise man: Ken Langone, a founder of Home Depot...'There is a bigger risk in business not being open than in staying closed,' he said by phone...'It isn't safety or business, it's safety right now which allows business.'....I want to get back to the national morale. All these dreadful economic numbers - you can't let people sink into defeatism...People need hope. Americans live on it. We must return to life. That is where the bias must be."

The Fairy Tale of Monetary Control -Snider/Real Clear Markets
"In the thirties, the government and central bank together took square aim at creating inflation so as to prevent further widespread deflationary economic damage. They never achieved it, nor did they measure a proper recovery. In the sixties, they took square aim at creating tightening so as to prevent further widespread inflationary economic damage. They never achieved that one, either, nor did they properly measure the monetary system for all its 'missing money.'....What was so striking, to me, in seeing A Controlled Expansion of the Currency in the Senate record is the fairy tale of control, how long it has been around and how it can be taken right to the extreme. It lingers in human imagination because we all want to believe, at times desperately, that it's within our collective grasp to tame wild forces we don't necessarily understand and mostly don't appreciate....For many, the very ideal of technocracy and therefore the possibility of utopia is more than a dream. Why on Earth anyone today would associate those with a central bank, particularly our central bank, defies everything logical and rational....There are now only really two mainstream sides to the current predicament; first, that the government and the Fed are going to push too far and unleash the inflationary monster because, well, they can and they want to....On the other side are those who think officials will thread the needle perfectly, and that the current 1932-style contraction we'll easily transit because of the finely crafted, expertly executed policies of those who don't mind telling you they learned everything they know from studying the Great Depression....When the government does everything in its legitimate power, and a great deal that isn't, to create inflation so as to get out of deflation, the deflation wins. When the government does everything in its legitimate power, and a great deal that isn't, to defeat inflation it didn't see coming, the inflation wins....The technocracy, to say nothing of its methods (statistical models), has always been a total sham."

We Need National Service. Now. -Brooks/New York Times
"There is now a vast army of young people ready and yearning to serve their country. There are college graduates emerging into a workplace that has few jobs for them. There are more high school graduates who suddenly can't afford college. There are college students who don't want to return to a college experience. This is a passionate, idealistic generation that sees the emergency, wants to serve those around them and groans to live up to this moment. Suddenly there is a wealth of work for them to do: contact tracing, sanitizing public places, bringing food to the hungry, supporting the elderly, taking temperatures at public gathering spots, supporting local government agencies, tutoring elementary school students so they can make up for lost time. Dr. Tom Frieden, former head of the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, has said we will need as many as 300,000 contact tracers alone....There's a good bill winding its way through the Senate to do precisely that, led by Chris Coons, a Democrat from Delaware...As a young man, Coons launched one of the first AmeriCorps programs, leading 150 members in 15 cities who tutored students in inner-city schools. Later, he created another AmeriCorps program with a local volunteer fire department in Delaware. 'It was the most inspiring thing I've ever been a part of,' Coons told me. His bill would double the current number of AmeriCorps volunteers in its first year, from 75,000 to 150,000. Then for years two and three it would double the number again, to 300,000. It would also increase AmeriCorps stipends, which are now as low as $15,000 a year, so the volunteers can have a living wage. The Coons bill is an excellent start. But it needs to be bigger and bipartisan. Under AmeriCorps, the federal government provides money for the volunteers, matched by private funding....There's no reason this shouldn't happen. Eighty-eight percent of Democrats and 74 percent of Republicans support voluntary national service. According to a Columbia University study, every dollar invested in national service produces about $4 in benefits. The number of young people who want to take part in national service always vastly exceeds the number of slots....As my mentor William F. Buckley once put it, 'Materialistic democracy beckons every man to make himself a king; republican citizenship incites every man to be a knight.' We have a generation of knights in waiting."

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5.8.20 - "Cash Is Trash" In Post-COVID World

Gold last traded at $1,713 an ounce. Silver at $15.79 an ounce.

NEWS SUMMARY: Precious metal prices gave back some of their recent gains Friday despite a weaker dollar. U.S. stocks rose as investors looked beyond record high 14.7% unemployment and bet that the worst had now passed and more stimulus is coming.

Gold jumps 2% as US jobs data adds to slowdown fears -CNBC
"Gold prices jumped 2% on Thursday after a string of weak economic data, including surging unemployment in the United States, heightened fears over a coronovirus-induced global downturn, while investors turned their attention to nonfarm payrolls for further cues....'You had high unemployment (numbers) that came out....That's still telling people to maybe look for the safety trade,' said Michael Matousek, head trader at U.S. Global Investors. Millions more Americans sought unemployment benefits last week, suggesting layoffs broadened from consumer-facing industries to other segments of the economy and could remain elevated even as many parts of the country start to reopen. Another set of data on Thursday showed worker productivity dropped at its fastest pace in more than four years in the first quarter amid the largest drop in hours since 2009. The host of gloomy economic data has bolstered expectations of more stimulus measures from central banks and governments around the world to cushion economic damage from the virus....The outbreak has infected more than 3.71 million people globally, battered global growth and prompted investors to seek safe havens such as gold."

cash "Remember, Cash Is Trash" In A Post-COVID World -Zero Hedge
"There's been a concerted effort recently among the oligarchs I like to call The Davos Crowd to demonize cash. From hedge fund manager Ray Dalio pronouncing 'Cash is trash' earlier this year to the fear-mongering surrounding COVID-19 making people fearful of dealing in cash because it might be tainted the anti-cash rhetoric has been amped up to eleven. And it's been no secret that the elite of the world want us to stop transacting in cash because it is something they can't track....But the reality is that the push for removing cash from society is to put all of our financial dealings in databases which gives authorities a record of everything you do...The reason for this demonization of cash has as much to do with the understanding that the current global financial system is broken and will need a global coordinated bailout....The dollar reserve standard is in the process of dying. The great financialization of the world and the multiple levels of credit bubbles its engendered are bursting. People are open to alternatives. And in the great game of global capital a country only has to be slightly better than the current dominant player to attract the lion's share once the outflows begin. China is positioning itself to be a bigger player here but the IMF, governed and controlled by the U.S., is not the solution....The easiest way to effect that is to be able to create digital money at the stroke of a keyboard....And it will be the discipline of cash tied to real assets, birthed from human toil but free from human manipulation that will return sanity to our markets and local economies. That's what a hard currency is."

The economy is in free fall. So why isn't the stock market? -Vox
"The stock market is doing fine, even though everything else is definitely not. Earlier in the coronavirus crisis, Wall Street had a meltdown. Stocks plunged amid fears of the disease's spread and its potential impact on the global economy, sometimes to the point that trading was halted altogether to rein in the chaos...And given the state of the world - a deadly global pandemic with no end in sight, 30 million Americans recently out of jobs, an economy that's fallen off of a cliff - a relatively rosy stock market is particularly perplexing. Sure, the stock market isn't the economy, but right now, it seems particularly divorced from what's happening on the ground. 'The gap between markets and economic data has never been larger,' wrote Matt King, global head of credit strategy at Citigroup....The Federal Reserve and, to a perhaps lesser but still significant extent, Congress have taken extraordinary measures to pump money into the economy and prop up markets....Moreover, investors don't really have a lot of places to go with their money - government bonds are offering super-low returns, if much at all. Among some on Wall Street, there's a fear of missing out, and it appears retail investors have been playing the markets while in quarantine. To be sure, there's no guarantee this market rally will last, nor that investors have it right....One theme of the coronavirus crisis is that anyone who tells you they know what's about to happen next is lying, and that holds when it comes to the stock market....'Beware of the oddity in this bear rally,' Andrew Lapthorne, global head of quantitative research at Societe Generale, wrote in a recent note. 'Given the overall negative undertone from the economic challenges ahead, the dramatic reversal of global markets after the pandemic lows is more puzzling.'... 'There's a very real possibility that people could get washed out, not just retail investors, but everybody.'"

Students To Get Graduation Pomp At Drive-In Theater -NPR
"Amid all the disappointments and cancellations for high school seniors this year because of COVID-19, many schools around the nation are scrambling to salvage at least some sort of graduation for the class of 2020. Many are considering holding ceremonies online or staging some sort of drive-by celebration. 'To not have [graduation] just doesn't seem right to us,' says Ken Freeston, schools superintendent in North Salem, N.Y. North Salem High School Principal Vince DiGrandi agrees. 'Absolutely, they've earned it,' he says...They started brainstorming last month for ways to get seniors some pomp, despite the circumstance...Eventually, they came up with another, more novel idea - to hold graduation at a venue about an hour north of the school....As soon as they inked the contract, the school released a video announcing the plan. On the screen, DiGrandi calls for a drumroll, describes the news as bigger than 'Armstrong landing on the moon,' and cuts to the two senior class advisers singing along to 'Stranded at the Drive-In' from the movie Grease. North Salem High School graduation 2020 will take place at a drive-in theater on June 22. 'Oh, my God! That's awesome!' senior Kayley Decina squealed, and immediately declared the plan even more fun than a regular graduation. 'I've literally been crying every day about not having a graduation and not seeing my friends,' she said. 'So I think having this last hurrah is really going to help. And it means a ton.' Kids are already planning to decorate their cars. They are limited to one per family, and if they have a sunroof they can pop through to cheer and toss their caps. The valedictorian's speech will blare from the drive-in's 56-foot-wide screen in high definition...And while North Salem's 103 graduates may not get to walk, DiGrandi plans to march from car to car, passing out diplomas from a proper social distance....It didn't take long to settle on which movie would be most appropriate to show. 'Groundhog Day,' exclaimed DiGrandi. 'Because it kind of feels that way for these kids.'"

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5.7.20 - "Gold About to Surge" - Hedge-Fund Billionaire

Gold last traded at $1,725 an ounce. Silver at $15.59 an ounce.

NEWS SUMMARY: Precious metal prices rose sharply Thursday on safe-haven buying and a weaker dollar. U.S. stocks rose above break-even for the year driven by tech sector gains as investors bet the U.S. economy would reopen soon.

Disconnect Between Markets And Reality Hits Idiotic Levels -Zero Hedge
"One month ago, with the S&P500 staging an impressive V-shaped rebound from the March 23 lows after the Fed unleashed a nuclear bomb of monetary stimulus, we showed that forward stock multiples had surged right back 19.4x, which was just above the level the S&P500 held on Feb 19 when it was trading at an all-time high above 3,330. In other words, at in the first week of April, stocks were valued the same as they were at the February all time highs. Fast forward one month when two things have happened: stocks have risen further, with the S&P rising just shy of 3,000 last week, while earnings expectations across the entire world have continued to slide...19.4x forward P/E is now even more idiotic...Deutsche Bank's Torsten Slok said: 'It is difficult to think about the E in the P/E ratio when the economy is shut down and half of blue-chip companies don't want to provide guidance on full-year earnings because of all the uncertainty. The Fed probably doesn't worry much about if the forward multiple is 18, 20, or 25, their clear goal is to support markets.'...The 'disconnect between markets and data is the largest on record'."

gold The stock market may get cut in half, but this "˜most undervalued' asset is about to surge, billionaire investor says -Marketwatch
"Paul Singer, the hedge-fund billionaire behind Elliott Management, warned last month that the ultimate path of global stock markets is a drop of at least 50% from February highs. What's an investor to do in the face of such a grim outlook? Load up on gold...After all, according to a report this week from the Financial Times, that's what the smart money's doing. Gold, advised Singer, is 'one of the most undervalued' assets available and it's worth 'multiples of its current price' due to the 'fanatical debasement of money by all of the world's central banks.' His fund gained about 2%, the FT reported, thanks primarily to profits from its gold position. Andrew Law's Caxton Associates and Danny Yong's Dymon Asia Capital have joined Singer in seeking protection in their gold positions amid further loosening monetary policy. 'Gold is a hedge against unfettered fiat currency printing,' said Yong, whose fund is up 36%."

Stay Shut Down or We'll Sue -Editors/Wall Street Journal
"Governors are moving to reopen their economies, and Congress could at least do its part. That includes passing the liability protections that business owners need to feel confident they won't be looted by lawsuits as they get back to work. The plaintiff bar is trying to cash in almost as quickly as the coronavirus has spread. Trial lawyers are filing suits against emergency-supply manufacturers (false advertising), colleges (refusal to refund student fees), cruise lines (emotional distress), retailers (wrongful death), nursing homes (negligence), and governments (denial of hazard pay)-and much more. There is little point in lifting lockdowns if employers don't open for fear of lawsuits. A number of governors used emergency powers to grant liability protections to health-care workers. But trial lawyers will attempt to get friendly state courts to invalidate them...The better answer is for Congress to pass legal protections related specifically to the pandemic and economic recovery that set a national standard and limit the trial bar's ability to forum shop class actions in friendly state courts....The answer is to restrict lawsuits to individuals who sustain 'serious physical injury' - perhaps defined as a permanent impairment of health, or situations that require medical intervention to preclude such an impairment....Also needed are protections for health providers, including those who use new treatments in their frantic efforts to save lives. Lawsuits should have to prove gross negligence....Congress has passed nearly $3 trillion in virus spending for hospitals, struggling businesses and state and local governments. The money should be used to save jobs and businesses, not be siphoned into trial-lawyer bank accounts. The government lockdowns put the economy into a deep recession. Now government has a duty to help businesses reopen without fear of crippling litigation."

COVID-19 is redefining what it means to be professional -Fast Company
"It's hard to maintain a level of professionalism when you work from home, especially when you have young kids or pets...COVID-19 has put us all in the same situation, juggling work and family while trying to appear competent. And things are loosening up as a result. 'What does professionalism mean when our personal lives are in turmoil?' asks Jason Wingard, dean and professor of the School of Professional Studies at Columbia University and author of Learning to Succeed: Rethinking Corporate Education in a World of Unrelenting Change. 'Many of us are working from basements and kitchens. We're caring for kids and, in some cases, parents. And we're all experiencing this surreal time together.' 'Being on Zoom with leadership teams sitting in odd places like attics with dogs barking and kids walking in - on one hand it's weird, and on the other hand it's refreshing,' says Mike Robbins, author of We're All in This Together: Creating a Team Culture of High Performance, Trust, and Belonging....While corporate culture has been evolving and relaxing over the past 5 or 10 years, COVID-19 is accelerating the process for industries that have stuck to traditional formalities, says Robbins....Seeing a more complete picture of your coworkers can promote empathy and understanding within teams. 'Maybe we'll all feel more comfortable sharing insights of our lives in a way we hadn't done before - more than simply a picture of our family on our desk,' says Wingard. Working from home has also forced people to be more creative and flexible. 'On video you can't hide,' says Robbins...The more authentic you feel in your work environment, the freer you are to create, says Robbins....The old ideas of what it means to be professional may be gone forever. 'This is a new normal, and we have to accept it,' says Wingard. 'The more kids, doorbells, cats, and dogs that become an operational part of our day, the more acceptable it will become. Keeping that separate is not realistic.'"

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5.6.20 - Gold: An Investment For Times Like These

Gold last traded at $1,691 an ounce. Silver at $15.08 an ounce.

NEWS SUMMARY: Precious metal prices slipped Wednesday on profit-taking and downbeat jobs data. U.S. stocks traded flat after ADP reported private payrolls were cut by 20.2 million last month.

Gold as an investment is made for times like these -Dillian/Marketwatch
"You absolutely do want to own some gold, especially now....I'll be frank: I would like the U.S. to return to a gold standard, but that is never going to happen. So we're stuck in a world of unlimited quantitative easing (QE) and other Fed funny business. Which means this is a world where you want to own gold....The fact is, gold has maintained its purchasing power over a huge span of history, and that isn't likely to change....And, given the government's reckless monetary actions - including its foray into modern monetary theory (MMT) - it's going to perform well long after the acute phase of this crisis passes....Gold is bound to keep rising in this environment. Because the Fed can print an infinite number of dollars, but it can't print gold....Gold has a lot going for it: QE, inflation fears, and a giant budget deficit, to name a few. However, the biggest reason to own gold is that it smooths out the volatility in your investment portfolio. Add a little bit of gold, and you'll pretty much get the same overall returns. But you'll cut your volatility in half. This is why I encourage my readers to allocate 20% of their investment portfolios to gold."

cubicle Welcome Back to the Office. Your Every Move Will Be Watched. -Wall Street Journal
"Many Americans heading back to the factory and the office as the coronavirus pandemic eases will soon begin to notice that their every move is being watched or recorded. PricewaterhouseCoopers LLP said it is preparing to launch this month a phone app for employers that traces contacts by analyzing workers' interactions in the office...Advertising giant Interpublic Group of Cos . is exploring dividing its 22,000 U.S. employees into three separate groups, according to perceived health risks, which could include age. Workers could be asked to disclose medical and other personal information about themselves and, in some cases, family members....The arrival of Covid-19 is taking surveillance to a higher level, with some employers planning to track movements and gather personal information like never before in Western democracies. It marks a new chapter in the debate over privacy, and the trade-offs people are willing to make for safety. Some companies now see the measures as perhaps the only way to reopen offices without risking a new rise in infections, at least until a vaccine becomes available....Massachusetts-based health-care software company Athenahealth Inc. is considering checking the temperatures of employees but doesn't want to track their movements. 'We trust our employees,' said Fran Lawler, Athenahealth's chief human resources officer. 'I think our employees would feel like that is a bit invasive.'....Existing employment laws that protect against discrimination by age or disability still apply in a pandemic, and asking all employees to disclose health information could open a company to legal liability, said Jennifer Merrigan Fay, an employment-law partner at Goodwin Procter LLP."

Some retailers are too broke to go bankrupt -CNN Business
"The coronavirus pandemic is making retail bankruptcies more likely. But, ironically, it could also make bankruptcies more difficult, and lead to delayed filings. With much of the United States still limiting nonessential businesses, and with shoppers nervous about visiting open stores, closing sales are much more difficult to hold. On Monday, J.Crew became the first national retailer to file for bankruptcy during the crisis. Experts say they're certain it won't be the last. But they also say many retailers are likely holding off filing until they are able to make plans for the stores they need to close during bankruptcy....Numerous national retailers are reported to be close to a bankruptcy filing. JCPenney (JCP) disclosed on April 15 that it missed a debt payment...According to published reports Neiman Marcus also is close to filing....Most major companies that file for bankruptcy do so intending to stay in business. But many fail, including Toys 'R' Us and Sports Authority. Once a company files for bankruptcy, the clock is ticking on its effort to win approval of the bankruptcy court to stay alive....The problems facing traditional brick-and-mortar stores didn't start with the Covid-19 crisis. A record 9,275 major retail stores announced closings last year, according to CoreSight Research. Things will only be tougher for traditional retailers in the months ahead, with many customers struggling during a period of record job losses. The growing use of online shopping during stay-at-home orders doesn't help either."

How people react to the threat of disease could mean COVID-19 is reshaping personalities -The Conversation
"The effects of the coronavirus pandemic will be 'imprinted on the personality of our nation for a very long time,' predicted Anthony Fauci, director of the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases....Psychological research suggests that concerns about COVID-19 and social distancing are likely to affect how much people want to socialize with others, what they desire in partners and relationships, and their preferences for more conventional thinking over openness to new experiences....Like the physiological immune system, the psychological behavioral immune system is flexible - when you perceive some infection risk, it triggers responses to minimize the danger. One such response is withdrawing from other people and becoming less social....Cultural norms and practices provide guidelines for how to behave to prevent the spread of disease. Whereas prior to COVID-19 a person sneezing in public might receive a polite 'gesundheit,' now it elicits fear. Break the 'six feet' rule and you risk an angry exchange, or worse. The risk of coronavirus is highlighting people's ability and willingness to follow guidelines for the sake of the community, promoting individuals' collectivistic side....The U.S. is only a couple months into social distancing. But COVID-19 is already shaping behavior. People are less social. Dating patterns are disrupted. Effects are emerging even in people's closest, most established relationships. The longer the coronavirus threat lingers, the more these changes may reflect not just changes in momentary behaviors, but changes to more enduring aspects of people's personalities."

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5.5.20 - Why U.S. Coronavirus Data is Terrible

Gold last traded at $1,716 an ounce. Silver at $15.17 an ounce.

NEWS SUMMARY: Precious metal prices traded mixed on safe-haven demand despite a firmer dollar. U.S. stocks rose with oil prices as investors bet the U.S. economy could start to reopen again.

Gold: Planting The Seeds Of Inflation And Food Shortages -Seeking Alpha
"We are seeing a lot of volatility because of some recent fundamental news that just came out...The crisis is unmatched since the 1930s. There is growing pressure to lift restrictions that are choking the economy. We are beginning to see the ripple-effect damage of this economic bomb caused by the pandemic...There are glimmers of hope. Some new testing of a drug, Remdesivir, is showing promise for treating COVID-19....Now we are beginning to see more buyers coming into the gold market...It is a very good level to start buying the market. A buy signal has been activated in gold....You have to understand the difference between the physical and paper markets. The two are separate. The paper market is the futures market and is based on contracts for 100 ounces of gold, supposedly....The physical gold market, however, has now completely separated itself from the paper market. There are a large number of open interest positions in gold, which are looking to take delivery of physical gold through the futures market. COMEX is in a jam because the number looking to take delivery are at record numbers, so they are scrambling to find the gold to meet their obligations....Central bankers can no longer manipulate the price of gold. The world is looking to take delivery of physical gold, which is more than offsetting attempts to suppress the price of gold via the paper market. When hyperinflation hits, it will happen overnight. Be prepared."

vaccine How Long Will a Vaccine Really Take? -New York Times
"A vaccine would be the ultimate weapon against the coronavirus and the best route back to normal life....We've never released a coronavirus vaccine for humans before. Our record for developing an entirely new vaccine is at least four years - more time than the public or the economy can tolerate social-distancing orders. But if there was any time to fast-track a vaccine, it is now. Normally, researchers need years to secure funding, get approvals and study results piece by piece. But these are not normal times. There are already at least 254 therapies and 95 vaccines related to Covid-19 being explored. Despite the unprecedented push for a vaccine, researchers caution that less than 10 percent of drugs that enter clinical trials are ever approved by the Food and Drug Administration. The rest fail in one way or another: They are not effective, don't perform better than existing drugs or have too many side effects....The potential Covid-19 vaccines now in the pipeline might be more likely to fail because of the swift march through the research phase, said Robert van Exan, a cell biologist who has worked in the vaccine industry for decades. He predicts we won't see a vaccine approved until at least 2021 or 2022, and even then, 'this is very optimistic and of relatively low probability.'....So researchers might produce a viable vaccine in just 12 to 18 months, but that doesn't mean you're going to get it....Once we have a working vaccine in hand, companies will need to start producing millions - perhaps billions - of doses, in addition to the millions of vaccine doses that are already made each year for mumps, measles and other illnesses. It's an undertaking almost unimaginable in scope."

Coronavirus Data in the U.S. Is Terrible, and Here's Why -City Lab
"Every day now comes with a new set of coronavirus data: numbers for positive tests, negative tests, deaths, patients hospitalized, ventilator shortfalls and hospital beds occupied...These numbers enable epidemiologists, officials, journalists and the public around the world to track the evolution of Covid-19 in almost real time, making it the first 'data-driven pandemic.' There's a lot at stake in these numbers, and there's a major problem: The data on which we are basing decisions is imperfect and incomplete....U.S. test results offer more of a 'window to the past' rather than an assessment of the present situation. On February 29, the Food and Drug Administration loosened the regulations on the development of Covid-19 tests, effectively allowing labs other than those of the Centers for Disease Control and Preventionto use their own tests...Before this date, all tests had to be conducted by the CDC for a case to be counted as a 'confirmed positive' case of Covid-19....By April 22, the FDA had granted over 40 Exceptional Use Authorizations (EUA) for test kits....In addition, with any test there is a risk of 'false negatives' - someone testing negative for Covid-19 when she is in fact sick. This can happen if medical staff mishandle swabs, which may have to do with the way the test is administered....While it's impossible to readjust the entire country's data structure amid a pandemic, health departments nationwide can publish more complete metrics, following the advice of the COVID Tracking Project and trying to stick to its checklist. Some kind of standard as how to present the data to the public would be helpful."

What American life will look like after the coronavirus crisis ends -The Hill
"A new age is dawning on our nation....This novel disease has had more impact on the average American than the largest stories of the last two decades, including wars in the Middle East, September 11th, and the real estate crash....Consumer spending fell by around 18 percent over the first quarter...The brick and mortar model is not only running independent stores into the risk of default but could also decimate many of the 1,100 malls all across the country...Total online sales have increased 49 percent since the pandemic started. Physical sales outside of food have been heaviest in alcohol sales, increasing by a whopping 75 percent. The housing market has shifted dramatically as well. One third of renters missed their payments last month, and things do not look any better for home buyers. Lenders expect 15 million homeowners will default on their mortgage payments....For many, this crisis has been a rude awakening. An age of true austerity with government control, swinging prices, and the possible rationing of health care all part of our potential future. Hopefully, a combination of effective therapeutics and reopening the economy will offer us a chance to avoid a global depression....But for all of our current struggles, there is an opportunity for each of us to persevere. Only our actions will show how we will ultimately define this period. We must not let the coronavirus define us."

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5.4.20 - Gold's 'Growing Potential' to Break $1,800

Gold last traded at $1,710 an ounce. Silver at $14.86 an ounce.

NEWS SUMMARY: Precious metal prices steadied Monday on safe-haven demand despite a firmer dollar. U.S. stocks traded mostly lower as traders weighed the reopening of the economy along with brewing tensions between China and the U.S.

Gold has 'growing potential' to break $1,800 an ounce -UBS/CNBC
"Gold prices could 'break the highs' seen earlier this year...according to UBS Investment Bank's Joni Teves. 'There is growing potential (for gold) to break $1,800 (per ounce) in my view,' Joni Teves, precious metal strategist at UBS Investment Bank, told CNBC's 'Squawk Box Asia' on Monday. In the near term, the firm has a target price for gold at $1,790 per ounce. That comes as 'investor interest continues to grow in this environment of uncertainty and negative real rates,' Teves said....Last week, the World Gold Council released its first-quarter 2020 demand trends report for the precious metal, where it highlighted that the global coronavirus outbreak was 'the single biggest factor influencing gold demand.' 'As the scale of the pandemic - and its potential economic impact - started to emerge, investors sought safe-haven assets,' the report said. 'Gold ETFs saw the highest quarterly inflows for four years amid global uncertainty and financial market volatility.' For her part, UBS' Teves said the move in gold had been drive by a 'pickup in investor interest, particularly from institutional investors.' 'Gold is becoming attractive in this environment where uncertainty is very high, growth is expected to weaken, and at the same time you have negative real rates which make gold attractive to hold as a diversifier in investor portfolios,' Teves said."

road Making Sense of the Future After Losing a Job You Love -Harvard Business Review
"Losing a job is deeply shocking. It is a loss of livelihood: the ability to support ourselves and often our families. But the emotional impact goes beyond financial stress....But perhaps most significant is the impact of job loss on our identity or sense of self. For many, work is not only a large part of our waking hours but also who we feel we are. Even in good times, a job loss is often one of life's most stressful events, coming close after bereavement, marital difficulties, and personal injury....But there's a path forward. In research I conducted over 10 years with people forced to leave the work they cared deeply about, I heard about their emotional responses first-hand - and how many of them found a way through....In my research I found that most people who are forced out of a career do manage to create meaningful futures and even feel more fulfilled than they did before. This happens as they come to terms with their disrupted identities and start to see new possibilities....Those who successfully created new futures for themselves tended to move through their grief and growth in three phases: 1. Regulate emotions - It's hard to think straight when your system is flooded with emotion, and there's a lot to feel emotional about at the moment....2. Engage in sense-making - From a more emotionally regulated place, you can now start to figure out what has happened, why, and what it means for you. Psychologists call this sense-making....3. Experiment and integrate - Sense-making is more than a way of thinking...identities can be greatly enriched, strengthened, or expanded through difficult experiences....If you have been laid off in this time of unprecedented challenge, take heart - this may be an unexpected chance to rethink what you want and who you are, and start building a path towards a job more enlivening than the one you lost."

Coronavirus threat to 401(k)s: Some savers are making these big money moves -CNBC
"It's been a roller coaster for the stock market, and that's certainly had an impact on investors' 401(k) accounts and other employer-sponsored retirement savings plans. Several major 401(k) providers, including Fidelity, Vanguard and T. Rowe Price, said the overwhelming majority of their 401(k) investors stayed the course and did not trade or change their asset allocation last month, as the S&P 500 lost 30% of its value from its record highs. Yet new data from Alight Solutions 401(k) Index, which tracks investment activity of about 2 million 401(k) participants, tell another story...The total amount of money transfers, as a percentage of an account's starting balance, was the highest it's been since October 2008, in the middle of the Great Recession....Unfortunately, many 401(k) investors don't have a financial plan and may not have reviewed their retirement investments in years, prior to the March market slide....Under the $2 trillion coronavirus relief package, it is easier now for savers to take money out of their retirement plans. Under the CARES Act, beginning March 27, 2020, and up to 180 days after, you can borrow up to $100,000 from your 401(k)....Some advisors worry that this could cause more retirement savers to tap their 401(k), putting their long-term financial security in greater jeopardy."

FDA authorizes remdesivir for emergency use as coronavirus treatment -CBS News
"The Food and Drug Administration has authorized the antiviral drug remdesivir for emergency use in treating coronavirus cases, FDA Commissioner Stephen Hahn announced in an impromptu Oval Office meeting on Friday afternoon. Daniel O'Day, the CEO of Gilead Sciences, which produces the drug, also attended the meeting with administration officials. O'Day said that Gilead would continue to work with the administration and said the company is working to increase its supply of IV remdesivir, which does not cure the disease but may help shorten its duration. Hahn thanked O'Day for the company's collaboration with the administration and praised FDA officials for work in responding to the pandemic. 'This is an important clinical advance,' Hahn said about remdesivir, calling it 'the first authorized therapy for COVID-19.' Dr. Deborah Birx, the leader of the White House coronavirus task force, also praised O'Day and the drug, which shortened the recovery time for some coronavirus patients in a recently completed clinical trial. 'This is our first really positive step forward,' Birx said....Dr. Anthony Fauci, the nation's top infectious disease specialist, expressed his optimism Wednesday about the ability of remdesivir to shorten the time it takes seriously ill patients to recover from a COVID-19 infection....However, a separate study on a smaller group of patients in China, published in the peer-reviewed journal The Lancet the same day, did not find statistically significant benefits from the drug for those with 'severe' COVID-19."

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5.1.20 - Gold Prices Are Going to "Pop" to $2,700

Gold last traded at $1,705 an ounce. Silver at $14.99 an ounce.

NEWS SUMMARY: Precious metal prices rose on safe-haven buying and a weaker dollar. U.S. stocks slumped as shares of Amazon led the major indexes lower on the month's first day of trading following mixed first-quarter results.

Gold prices going to "pop" to $2,700, easily -Holmes/Kitco
"Despite a weakened economy, stocks continue to rise on the back of monetary stimulus, which is bound to push gold prices even higher, this, according to Frank Holmes, CEO of U.S. Global Investors. Stocks are going up 'because of the trillions and trillions of dollars of money printing from the helicopters of central bankers. The G20 central bankers, the G20 finance ministers, that's a cartel, like OPEC,' Holmes told Kitco News. Fundamentally, gold's supply deficit should also provide tailwinds, Holmes said. 'Last year, as I've mentioned, everyone was surprised that palladium could go from $1,000 to $2,700, and I said short-term, why can't gold do that?' he said. 'We're going to see gold pop. $2,700 is easy for me to see that.' Holmes added that the gold miners should also perform exceptionally well during periods of upward bullion price movements."

system A Broken System: Trader Warns "The Fed Has Poisoned Everything" -Zero Hedge
"The Fed poisons everything, and I mean everything. From markets, the economy...But as much as the Fed poisons everything, this crisis here again reveals a larger issue: The system is completely broken, it can't sustain itself without the Fed's ever more monumental interventions....So how does the Fed poison everything? Let's start with the Fed actual process of working towards its stated mission: Full employment and price stability. How does it do that? Well, for the last 20 years mainly by extremely low interest rates and balance sheet expansion sprinkled with an enormous amount of jawboning. The principle effect: Asset price inflation. It's not a side effect, it's the true mission. The Fed has been managing the economy via asset prices even though Jay Powell again insisted on saying the Fed is not targeting asset prices. This is a lie....It was not until the Fed flooded markets with cheap money creating the housing bubble that the equation changed dramatically...There is no alternative. Forcing money into equities to manage the economy with a rising stock market....And the entire market knows this. Wall Street knows this. Why? Because the market is a follow the Fed machine long trained to jump back into equities at any sign of Fed action jawboning and promises. It's no accident that 'don't fight the Fed' is a popular mantra....Recklessly widening the wealth inequality equation in the process. What happens when you have a slow growth recovery for 10 years and all the wealth benefits going disproportionally to the top 1% who own most of the assets that are targeted, while real wage growth stagnates? For one you have a sizable portion of society that doesn't have a pot to piss in, behind in bills, struggling to pay rent, little to no savings or retirement, taking on multiple low paying jobs with no benefits while real estate prices keep rising as the wealthy keep squeezing people out of neighborhoods....The end results: With inequality is skyrocketing even further as millions are unemployed and many more are losing incomes while the shareholders and executives and those with larger retirement funds can take solace that the damage to them is minimized....The system is not broken, it's designed to function exactly as it is, because it benefits precisely the very same people that control it."

Rent is Due Today, but Many Tenants Can't - or Won't - Pay -Wall Street Journal
"May is shaping up as a clash between renters and landlords, as soaring unemployment could leave millions of tenants unable to pay, and some organizers of rent strikes urge even those with means to hold back....Many more are worried about keeping their jobs, and housing activists in at least 15 cities, including New York and Chicago, are organizing rent strikes....'We thought [unpaid rent] stabilized, but then who knows if everyone's going to go on a rent strike,' Joseph DePaolo, the head of Signature Bank, a prominent lender to multifamily landlords in New York, said....The best estimates of how many people fail to pay on time this month won't be available for at least a week, but early polls suggest that many Americans are unsure they can pay in full....National real estate trade groups have recommended landlords create payment plans for struggling tenants. Renter households had a median income of $40,500 in 2018, according to the Census Bureau, compared with $78,000 for owner households....The federal stimulus law halted evictions for 120 days for renters who live in properties financed by federally backed mortgages. At least 28% of rental properties in the U.S. are estimated to fall under these rules, according to the Urban Institute....Some Democrats in the House of Representatives, as well as in state and local legislatures, have called for 'canceling rent' in solidarity with the rent strike movement."

Americans are hoarding cash: The savings rate hit its highest level since 1981 -CNN
"Americans are so nervous about the state of the economy that they are stashing cash in the bank at a rate not seen since the first year of Ronald Reagan's presidency. The United States government's Bureau of Economic Analysis reported Thursday morning that the savings rate surged to 13.1% in March - up from 8% in February. That's the highest savings rate since November 1981....Consumers are putting more money away at a time when bank savings, money market accounts and Treasury bonds are yielding next to nothing after the Federal Reserve slashed rates to zero last month and launched numerous lending programs in the wake of the Covid-19 pandemic. At a press conference on Wednesday, Fed chair Jerome Powell was asked about what savers should do since rates are at zero. He conceded that for people 'really just relying on their bank savings account earnings, you're not going to benefit from low interest rates.'....Still, consumers may be saving more because they are spending less - a lot less, in fact. The BEA also said Thursday that consumption expenditures fell 7.5% last month, led by a nearly $935 billion drop in spending on goods and services....One economist theorized that perhaps Americans were preparing for an inevitable downturn...'Speculation is people were bracing for the next recession,' said Robert Frick, corporate economist with Navy Federal Credit Union."

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4.30.20 - Gold Soars in April on Central Bank Stimulus

Gold last traded at $1,694 an ounce. Silver at $14.97 an ounce.

NEWS SUMMARY: Precious metal prices rose in April as investors were drawn to the metal's proven store of value qualities. U.S. stocks fell on downbeat economic data as the CV-19 pandemic pushed U.S. jobless claims above 30 million in the last six weeks.

Gold Soars in April as Top Central Banks Fight Pandemic's Damage -Bloomberg
"Gold is heading for the biggest monthly gain since 2016 as top economies ramp up stimulus to repair the damage from the coronavirus pandemic, boosting the metal's allure as a store of value. Bullion traded near the highest since 2012 after the U.S. Federal Reserve voiced concern Wednesday the crisis could leave permanent scars on the U.S. economy, while leaving interest rates near zero....Gold has rebounded after a sell-off last month, when investors rushed to raise cash. There was also some delayed quarterly portfolio rebalancing pushed back due to those late-March falls, Rhona O'Connell, head of market analysis for EMEA and Asia at INTL FCStone, said by email. 'Additional liquidity in the system benefited gold,' she said. 'The risks in the system do point to further gains.'....Overall sentiment for gold is still high, as investors seek havens amid the economic downturn, and monetary and fiscal stimulus, according to State Street Global Advisors. Gold will trade between $1,700 and $1,800 an ounce for the next few weeks, with a skew to the higher end of that range, Robin Tsui, Asia-Pacific gold strategist, said in an interview. 'The low interest rate factor is going to drive gold prices forward.'"

tp We Are Fighting a Public Health Crisis, Not a War -Bonner/Bonner And Partners
"Steve Mnuchin: 'We need to spend what it takes to win the war.' It is a scam on several levels. First, the 'war' is fake. This is a public health crisis, not a war. Calling it a 'war' is just a way to get people to salute the leaders....Second, the feds are not fighting the virus. Doctors, nurses, and hospitals are fighting the virus. The feds turned a natural disaster into a man-made economic disaster. Third, they are now desperately trying to save a failed financial system"¦ and taking advantage of the crisis to bail out cronies, reward campaign donors, expand the Deep State, and enhance their own power. Fourth, the feds have no money saved to give in 'aid' or 'stimulus.' Every penny must come from the people they pretend to be aiding. Fifth, the money they give out is fake"¦ In its most tangible form, it is nothing more than paper with green ink on it. It represents no goods, no services, no earnings, no wealth, and no savings. Sixth, like a phony claim ticket at a hat-check booth, this kind of fake money merely entitles the people who get it - the cronies, the chislers, the insiders - to take someone else's coat. Seventh, providing an economy with fake money does not cause it to produce more goods and services. Instead, it sours the whole system"¦ misleads investors and consumers"¦ and reduces real output. Eighth, the most common and destructive effect of this scam is inflation. First, asset prices are inflated. Later, consumer prices rise, too, eventually washing out every penny of stimulus spending - and more....Today, stocks are moving up as investors anticipate trillions in new money"¦ and an easing of the lockdown conditions...Stocks could soar, as they did in Zimbabwe and Venezuela. But in real money terms (that is, in terms of gold) stock prices will almost surely go down - along with the dollar"¦ the economy"¦ and the American Empire."

Wall Street veteran's explanation of weird investor behavior: gambling -Yahoo Finance
"DataTrek's Jessica Rabe wrote that some mom and pop investors might be day-trading the market more because casinos professional sports have shut down and casinos have closed. Across certain segments of the 'regular people' investment landscape - Vanguard and Fidelity, for example - there hasn't been much in the way of panic selling as many customers seem to have internalized the 'stay the course' messaging that followed the last financial crisis...In fact, many of these retail investors have bought equities as markets plunged...March daily trade volumes were around three times that of Q4's daily volume - which has continued into April....Rabe called the 'tremendous rush of retail investors into US equities over the last 8 weeks' one of the 'most surprising financial market features of the COVID crisis.'....This list of most traded stocks is interesting, Rabe points out, because with the exception of Disney, they are all cheap and very volatile stocks that can move up and down 10% in just a few days. Why are so many people drawn to them? The explanation Rabe lands on sounds wild, but compelling. 'This shoves us to a strange, but we think useful, conclusion,' Rabe writes. 'The rush of retail investors into U.S. equities is at least partly a function of a world with no casinos, no sports betting to speak of (horses and ping-pong aside), and little to do outside the home.'"

For people with dementia, the coronavirus pandemic is a nightmare -The Economist
"People with every stage of dementia are at particular danger from the virus not just because of the difficulty they may have in understanding the threat or in remembering safety precautions. They are also likely to be subject to other risk factors. The most obvious is that dementia is predominantly a syndrome of the elderly, the group for whom covid-19 is most likely to be fatal...By some estimates, 2% of 65- to 69-year-olds have dementia, and its prevalence doubles every five years to the age of 90. In another widely quoted estimate, between a third and a half of 85-year-olds have dementia....Looking after people with dementia is a hands-on, labor-intensive task. For those at home, that can become almost impossible if social-distancing guidelines are adhered to. And much of the usual support system - regular visitors and day-care centers, for example - will be unavailable....Professor Livingston of the London School of Economics says that the 'memory clinic' where she works decided to shut, as the doctors concluded 'it was more risky to see people than for them not to have a diagnosis for a short period of time.' But the longer the delay goes on, the greater dangers people living with undiagnosed dementia pose to themselves, and perhaps others, if, say, through forgetfulness they start a fire, or continue to drive when they can no longer do so safely....As life expectancies lengthen, especially in the developing world, the numbers of people with the condition will shoot up, to around 80m by 2030 and 150m by 2050. As population growth slows, there will simply not be enough people to care for them. No country has a good plan for how to deal with this problem, or how to finance the care of such large numbers of people. Optimists point to the current pandemic to argue that it shows how much can be done when the scale of an emergency is recognized."

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4.29.20 - War on Cash Kicking Into Overdrive

Gold last traded at $1,716 an ounce. Silver at $15.44 an ounce.

NEWS SUMMARY: Precious metal prices eased Wednesday on profit-taking despite a sharp drop in U.S. economic activity. U.S. stocks rose on positive data from a potential coronavirus treatment from Gilead Sciences.

'Government stupidity' may bring new gold price highs -Forbes/Kitco
"Regardless of how bad the economic fallout from COVID-19 and subsequent government response will be, one thing is clear: gold will retain its status as a hedge asset and is a must-own in every investor's portfolio, according to Steve Forbes, chairman and editor-in-chief of Forbes Media. In a podcast published on Forbes magazine last Friday, the media mogul outlined several economic scenarios, all pointing to tailwinds for the yellow metal. 'The trillions of dollars being spent to save our virus-battered economy are stoking fears of inflation,' he said. 'Gold has always been a hedge against government's economic blunders.' Forbes added that government policies enacted now could lead to disaster that has the potential to send gold prices soaring, like in the 1970s. He joins a host of analysts who have said that fundamentals are about to push gold prices much higher than current levels. Bank of America was among the Wall Street analysts who have turned bullish on gold, recently calling for prices to target $3,000 in 18 months....Comparing gold to stocks, Forbes outlined the metals' superior performance during market downturns. 'If you'd put say $10,000 in the stock market a year ago, you have about $9,000 today. If you put that $10,000 in gold you have $13,500 today. That's over $4,500. Since stocks reached their highs in February, gold has outperformed them by a good margin,' he said."

cashless War on Cash Kicking Into Overdrive -Rickards/Daily Reckoning
"The global elites and deep state actors always have a laundry list of programs and regulations they can't wait to put into practice. They know that most of these are deeply unpopular and they could never get away with putting them into practice during ordinary times. Yet when a crisis hits, citizens are desperate for fast action and quick solutions. The elites bring forward their rescue packages but then use these as Trojan horses to sneak their wish list inside. The USA Patriot Act that passed after 9/11 is a good example. Some counterterrorist measures were needed, of course. But the Treasury had a long-standing wish list involving reporting cash transactions and limiting citizens' ability to get cash. They plugged that wish list into the Patriot Act and we've been living with the results ever since, even though 9/11 is long in the past. Obviously, the effort to eliminate cash is hardly new. It has been going on for many years and in many forms. The U.S. discontinued the use of large-denomination bills in the late 1960s. Until 1969, $500, $1,000, $5,000 and even $10,000 bills were issued, even though they were printed decades earlier. Today the largest bill is a $100 bill, but it has lost 80% of its purchasing power since 1968, so it's really just a $20 bill from those days....This crisis is even larger and scarier than the 2008 crisis, which gives elites even more opportunity to ram their agendas through without serious opposition. They don't intend to let it go to waste. Sure enough, government agents and tech vendors are now claiming that cash is 'dangerous' because it could contain traces of the coronavirus. While that's not impossible, it's highly unlikely and no more likely than getting the virus from 100 other sources including package deliveries and shopping carts. Should we ban cardboard boxes and shopping carts too?....The time to protect yourself is now. The best way is to keep a portion of your wealth outside of the banking system. I strongly recommend that you own physical gold (and silver). I recommend you allocate 10% of your investable assets to gold. If you really wanted to be aggressive, maybe 20%....I see gold going to at least $10,000 an ounce ultimately...When the next panic hits, and it will hit, there won't be any gold available at any price."

What It Might Look Like to Safely Reopen Schools -KQED/Mindshift
"Three-quarters of U.S. states have now officially closed their schools for the rest of the academic year. While remote learning continues, summer is a question mark, and attention is already starting to turn to next fall....Here are nine key ideas - drawn from interviews with public health experts, education officials and educators around the country - for what reopening might look like. 1. Stepped-up health and hygiene measures - So the first order of business, says Michael Mulgrew, the head of the New York City teachers union, is 'How do you make sure there's a plan in place to make sure the people walking in are not spreading anything?'....2. Class sizes of 12 or fewer - In an attempt to balance safety with the impact on families and the economy, Maria Litvinova, a researcher at the Institute for Scientific Interchange in Turin, Italy, recommends reducing social contact by putting children in the smallest groups possible....3. Staggered schedules - Reducing class size this drastically would probably mean staggering schedules....4. Younger kids first? Denmark reopened its day cares and primary schools first. Norway started with kindergartens, and Israel with special education kindergartens....5. New calendars - To make up for the learning lost while schools are closed, there have been suggestions of starting school sooner, or continuing through next summer, or both....6. Different attendance policies - Schools can open up, but some parents might still choose to keep their children at home....7. No assemblies, sports games or parent-teacher conferences - Students can't mix in large groups, and parents probably won't be allowed in school buildings either....8. Remote learning continues - Every expert NPR spoke with predicted that the need for remote learning would continue because of staggered schedules, schools prepared to close again for future waves of infection....9. Social, emotional and practical help for kids - Developmental experts say disruption from the pandemic constitutes an 'adverse childhood experience' for every American child."

The Bearer of Good Coronavirus News -Wall Street Journal
"Defenders of coronavirus lockdown mandates keep talking about science...But scientists are almost never unanimous, and many appeals to 'science' are transparently political or ideological. Consider the story of John Ioannidis, a professor at Stanford's School of Medicine. His expertise is wide-ranging - he juggles appointments in statistics, biomedical data, prevention research and health research and policy. Google Scholar ranks him among the world's 100 most-cited scientists. He has published more than 1,000 papers, many of them meta-analyses - reviews of other studies. Yet he's now found himself pilloried because he dissents from the theories behind the lockdowns - because he's looked at the data and found good news. In a March article for Stat News, Dr. Ioannidis argued that Covid-19 is far less deadly than modelers were assuming. He considered the experience of the Diamond Princess cruise ship, which was quarantined Feb. 4 in Japan. Nine of 700 infected passengers and crew died. Based on the demographics of the ship's population, Dr. Ioannidis estimated that the U.S. fatality rate could be as low as 0.025% to 0.625% and put the upper bound at 0.05% to 1% - comparable to that of seasonal flu. 'If that is the true rate,' he wrote, 'locking down the world with potentially tremendous social and financial consequences may be totally irrational.'....Scientific studies are often infected by biases. 'Several years ago, along with one of my colleagues, we had mapped 235 biases across science. And maybe the biggest cluster is biases that are trying to generate significant, spectacular, fascinating, extraordinary results,' he says. 'Early results tend to be inflated. Claims for significance tend to be exaggerated.'....Dr. Ioannidis and colleagues at Stanford last week published a study on the prevalence of coronavirus antibodies in Santa Clara County. Based on blood tests of 3,300 volunteers in the county - which includes San Jose, California's third-largest city - during the first week of April, they estimated that between 2.49% and 4.16% of the county population had been infected. That's 50 to 85 times the number of confirmed cases and implies a fatality rate between 0.12% and 0.2%, consistent with that of the Diamond Princess....In part he blames the media: 'We have some evidence that bad news, negative news [stories], are more attractive than positive news - they lead to more clicks, they lead to people being more engaged. And of course we know that fake news travels faster than true news. So in the current environment, unfortunately, we have generated a very heavily panic-driven, horror-driven, death-reality-show type of situation.'"

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4.28.20 - Free-Market Agenda for Post CV-19 Rebuilding

Gold last traded at $1,721 an ounce. Silver at $15.28 an ounce.

NEWS SUMMARY: Precious metal prices eased again Tuesday as signs of lockdown easing lifted risk appetite. U.S. stocks traded mixed as as shares of the so-called FANG tech companies declined.

For Retirees Seeking an Inflation Hedge, Here's How to Add Gold -Barrons
"Gold has again excelled in its role as a safe haven and portfolio diversifier, with the precious metal near 7 ½-year highs after rallying around 10% since early March while stocks tumbled during the coronavirus-driven market tumult. Looking ahead, gold figures to play a starring role as a store of value as investor expectations on future inflation climb amid global stimulus efforts that have put a flood of cash into the financial system. For retirees on a fixed income, inflation can be a killer especially as interest rates remain low. But how much should retirees allocate to gold and how to include in a portfolio?....Kristina Hooper, chief global market strategist at Invesco, says gold is appropriate in anyone's portfolio as part of the alternatives allocation since the metal can offer portfolio diversification and be an inflation hedge over the long run...Depending on the person's risk tolerance, gold can take up a 5% or less portfolio allocation, she says....Frank Holmes, CEO of U.S. Global Investors, which issues precious metals mutual funds and exchange-traded funds, says gold becomes a true store of value when the inflation rate starts to outpace interest rates. In gold markets, investors look at 'real' interest rates, subtracting the benchmark rate from the inflation rate. If that rate turns negative, as it has recently, gold shines. Negative inflation-adjusted interest rates were behind gold's last run between 2008 and 2011, when gold hit a nominal all-time high of just over $1,900 an ounce. Gold started to retreat when those 'real' rates turned positive, he says. With benchmark rates near zero, this could work in gold's favor again. He recommends gold holdings up to 10%."

tech Tech giants are profiting - and getting more powerful - even as the global economy tanks -Washington Post
"Tech titans spent much of the last year playing defense, fending off dozens of federal and state antitrust investigations and a public wary of their power. But the global coronavirus pandemic is prompting a dramatic reversal of fortune for the tech giants. Amazon and Facebook are capitalizing on the fact that they are viewed as essential services for a public in lockdown, while Google and Apple are building tools that will enable state health departments to provide a critical public service, tracing the course of potential new covid-19 infections....While the global economy faces potential unemployment and contraction not seen since the Great Depression, the tech giants - and a handful of medium-size tech firms - are already benefiting from new consumer habits initiated during the lockdowns that analysts believe will turn into longer-term shifts in how people shop, work and entertain themselves. The broader stock markets tanked in recent weeks, but share prices of Amazon and Microsoft hit at or near records. Facebook is moving to acquire high-skilled talent, announcing the hiring of 10,000 new workers this year....'There are really two Americas right now,' said Scott Galloway, a marketing professor at the New York University Stern School of Business and author of 'The Four: The Hidden DNA of Amazon, Apple, Facebook, and Google.' 'There is Big Tech and there is everyone else. They can do what very few companies can do, which is play offense in the middle of a pandemic.'....At the same time, the public is becoming more reliant on tech giants' services, while governments outsource critical work to them...As the economic contraction continues and start-ups die off, the largest firms may also be some of the only companies in the position to do any hiring. In a recent interview, Sheryl Sandberg, chief operating officer of Facebook, made a point of highlighting that the company would create 10,000 new positions this year in engineering and product roles."

Debt, wealth destruction and lower pay will be coronavirus' legacy -Marketwatch
"Post-pandemic recovery will experience effects that persist after the initial cause - the coronavirus - cease to have an impact. There are several operative elements to consider: 1. The crisis will continue to destroy wealth: During the Great Recession, the U.S. lost around $10 trillion from drawdowns in savings, falling values of houses and investments. After the COVID-19 crisis, depleted savings will affect consumption levels....2. The crisis will leave a legacy of debt: Household, business and government, many already highly indebted, will experience sharp rises in borrowing to cover cash-flow shortfalls...Slower rebounds in real estate and financial asset prices will exacerbate the damage. A decade after the 2008 crisis, millions of homeowners still had mortgages greater than the value of their homes....3. Business will be slow to recover: Most smaller businesses lack reserves to meet expenses for more than a month or, at most, a quarter. Invested capital will be lost...Reversing this loss takes time....4. There will be persistent negative effects in the labor market: Lacking any realistic prospects of getting work, many will leave the workforce....5. Increased state involvement and higher government debt will be difficult to reverse: Benefits provided in the COVID-19 crisis may be difficult wind back....6. Expect behavioral changes in people: Scarring from the crisis will affect family formation and fertility, which will alter demographics and accelerate the impact on societies with aging populations."

A free-market agenda for rebuilding from the coronavirus -Action Institute
"On June 18, 1940, British Prime Minister Winston Churchill steeled his people for the Battle of Britain with a stirring speech in the House of Commons that concluded: 'Let us therefore brace ourselves to our duties, and so bear ourselves, that if the British Empire and its Commonwealth last for a thousand years, men will still say, "˜This was their finest hour.'' The present coronavirus crisis calls for Churchillian statesmanship, yet few, if any, democratically elected leaders have proven equal to the task so far. This is decidedly not our finest hour. The leaders of the world's democracies have virtually shut down democratic capitalism in an attempt to save lives...Unemployment and government debt are spiraling to levels not seen since the Great Depression and World War II....The point is that free markets and working economies are absolutely essential in order to effectively mobilize the resources required to take on COVID-19 and other public health problems. Without essential liberty, there is no safety, to paraphrase Benjamin Franklin. What would courageous and prudent statesmanship look like in the present crisis?....Let me suggest a few key elements: 1) Make a strong moral case for medical liberty, healthcare innovation, and healthcare investment as core pillars of democratic capitalism and a culture that values every human life. 2) Reopen the economies and borders of the world's democracies immediately while closely monitoring COVID-19 hot spots and applying locally driven restrictions as necessary. 3) Prioritize supply-side tax cuts and deregulation over bailouts and unemployment benefits in order to quickly get the economy back on its feet. 4) Launch an ambitious free-market healthcare reform agenda, removing bureaucratic obstacles to private sector innovation and investment in healthcare. 5) Create a transatlantic free trade area for healthcare, giving American healthcare innovators greater access to European and Canadian health systems and vice versa."

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4.27.20 - Reopening Has Begun. What Happens Next?

Gold last traded at $1,726 an ounce. Silver at $15.31 an ounce.

NEWS SUMMARY: Precious metal prices eased back Monday on short-term profit-taking as lockdown easing boosted risk appetite. U.S. stocks rose as investors mulled over the possibility of re-opening the economy after the coronavirus outbreak.

Pandemic Triggers a Wave of Distress, Bankruptcy in Corporate America -Wall Street Journal
"Stay-at-home orders and the shutdown of nonessential business have driven broad swaths of the economy into panic mode. In industries that were already in a precarious position before the crisis, including retail and energy, the coronavirus pandemic has tipped many companies over the edge. A host of oil companies have sought chapter 11 protection, while J.C. Penney Co. and Neiman Marcus Group Inc. are expected to file for bankruptcy soon. Companies in areas that were previously stable, such as the automotive, travel and leisure industries - and even health care - may soon face similar pressures. U.S. corporate debt downgraded to selective default, meaning a borrower has failed to meet one or more of its obligations, totaled $64.1 billion for the 12 months ended April 17, according to S&P Global Ratings....In the coming months, that figure could top the roughly $340 billion reached at the height of the financial crisis, according to the worst-case scenario estimates from S&P. Even in a less grim scenario, the figure could approach levels reached after the dot-com bust in the early 2000s. Companies of all stripes are scrambling to avoid a painful reorganization of their capital structures and operations, default or bankruptcy....Should the recession prove deeper than envisioned, there could be a second - potentially bigger - wave of corporate distress later this year as companies labor under the weight of additional debt taken on during the shutdown, advisers warn."

gold chart Since Inception, The Euro Has Devalued 85% Against Gold -Zero Hedge
"Technically, the euro was launched on January 1, 1999, although euro notes and coins started circulating in January of 2002. The first gold price recorded in 1999 was €7.88 euros per gram. By now, the gold price has crossed €51 euros per gram. A new all-time high. Over the course of 20 years, the price of gold in euros has increased by 555%. From a historic perspective the euro is a young currency, but already lost 85% of its value against gold. This reveals the instability of fiat money....In 1999 it took 0.13 gram to buy one euro; today only 0.02 gram. The result is that the euro lost 85% of its value versus gold. In the chart you can see the euro's descent versus gold since 1999....Gold's purchasing power, on average, has increased by a staggering 350% over 20 years. The gold price can be volatile at times, but over longer periods of time it preserves its purchasing power, with the benefit that it doesn't have any counterparty risk, so it withstands every crisis."

Reopening Has Begun. No One Is Sure What Happens Next. -New York Times
"The economy shut down almost overnight. It won't start back up that way. Politicians and public health experts have sparred for weeks over when, and under what circumstances, to allow businesses to reopen and Americans to emerge from their homes. But another question could prove just as thorny - how? Because the restart will be gradual, with certain places and industries opening earlier than others, it will by definition be complicated. Georgia and other states are beginning the reopening process. But even under the most optimistic estimates, it will be months, and possibly years, before Americans again crowd into bars and squeeze onto subway cars the way they did before the pandemic struck. 'It's going to take much longer to thaw the economy than it took to freeze it,' said Diane Swonk, chief economist for the accounting firm Grant Thornton. And it isn't clear what, exactly, it means to gradually restart a system with as many interlocking pieces as the U.S. economy. How can one factory reopen when its suppliers remain shuttered? How can parents return to work when schools are still closed? How can older people return when there is still no effective treatment or vaccine?....'The biggest risk is that you open too fast, too broadly, and you have another round of infections, a second wave,' said Mark Zandi, chief economist for Moody's Analytics. 'That's the fodder for an economic depression. That would just completely undermine confidence.'....Economists say the government's role is only beginning. Businesses will need help weathering a period of reduced sales. State and local governments will need help, too, or they will have to cut programs to offset a sharp drop in tax revenue. Individuals will need unemployment benefits, food assistance and other aid to make ends meet in a recession that will almost certainly outlast the pandemic."

It's Time to Flatten the Loneliness Curve for Older Americans -Freedman/Gomperts/Next Avenue
"Just as the nation's population of people over 65 is about to skyrocket, we face the intersection of two deadly epidemics: COVID-19 and loneliness. One is deadly now, the other a slow-motion threat of equal consequence. Even before the current crisis, we were in a social recession, as evidenced by dramatic increases in loneliness and isolation. Now we're in danger of entering a social depression that might last for years. And here, too, older people - the canaries in the loneliness coal mine - are most at risk. Research from the University of California, San Francisco shows that 43% of adults over 65 feel lonely, which puts them at higher risk for poor health. And AARP researchers traced social isolation to nearly $7 billion in additional Medicare spending every year. To get us on the road toward being a stronger, more caring and connected society, we need a social stimulus plan as bold and encompassing as the fiscal one. It should start with alleviating, even preventing, loneliness. And here's some good news: We don't have to start from scratch....The United States could establish our own equivalent, a cabinet-level position tasked with creating a comprehensive plan to connect people in ways that prevent isolation and mitigate it when it does occur....Next, we'll need an infusion of resources equal to the need and the task. Here we can take inspiration from Singapore, a tiny nation with a grand plan to transform aging, provide purpose for its rapidly growing aging population and create intergenerational connection....Education offers many opportunities for community connection...Volunteering is such an important health intervention for older adults that Dr. Linda Fried, dean of the Mailman School of Public Health at Columbia University, has suggested that Medicare 'prescribe and support' programs like AARP Experience Corps, a tutoring and mentoring effort matching older adults and K-3 students in under-resourced public schools. That kind of public health investment could save money in the long run, as older adults stay healthier longer and children get a better start with the confidence that comes from having more caring adults in their corner...The tragedy of the COVID-19 pandemic and the necessity of social distancing underscore the growing social isolation crisis that is sapping far too many lives of meaning, joy and contribution. As the population of older people grows and the risk of disconnection grows along with it, it's time to think about how we can flatten the loneliness curve and put in place policies and measures that will carry us through this crisis into a new era of interdependence."

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4.24.20 - Paying Americans Not to Work -WSJ

Gold last traded at $1,739 an ounce. Silver at $15.30 an ounce.

NEWS SUMMARY: Precious metal prices rose Friday heading toward a strong week driven by Fed stimulus measures. U.S. stocks mostly flat as investors faced another volatile week featuring unprecedented moves in the oil market.

Gold heads for weekly gain as growth fears boosts demand -CNBC
"Gold prices edged higher Friday and was on track for a strong weekly rise, driven by central bank stimulus measures and investor appetite for a safe haven as fears mount over the economic damage caused by the novel coronavirus....'Gold is holding up well and it's not surprising given the continuing volatility in other markets and people looking for safe havens,' Commerzbank analyst Eugen Weinberg said. 'In euro terms, gold has risen to an all-time high, which is definitely yet another proof of the continuing safe-haven demand and decreasing trust in central bank money.'....More than 2.7 million people have been reported to be infected by the virus globally. Central banks have adopted massive monetary measures to limit the economic damage as most countries extend lockdowns to curtail its spread....Gold tends to benefit from widespread stimulus measures from central banks because it is widely viewed as a hedge against inflation and currency debasement. 'In this new world in which both the European Central Bank and the U.S. Federal Reserve continue to unleash new stimulus packages, dramatically increasing the liquidity of cash, combined with a lot of uncertainty, gold will remain in high demand and play a key role in any investor's portfolio,' ActivTrades chief analyst Carlo Alberto De Casa said in a note."

inflation U.S. Is Following in Argentina's Economic Footsteps -Bonner/Bonner And Partners
"There's an advantage to spending time in a place like Argentina....Economists like to study Argentina. It's the only country in the world to go from one of the world's richest"¦ to sh*thole status"¦ thanks entirely to government policy....The Argentines can't borrow because no one will lend them money. The Americans can't borrow, either, because nobody's got that kind of money. And if they had it, they wouldn't be fool enough to lend to someone on such a reckless spending binge. The only possible source for so much financing is the Federal Reserve. And the Fed's only source is the 'printing press.' So, in other words, the U.S. is following in Argentina's tracks"¦ but on a much bigger scale....Argentina's inflation rate is already over 50%. But that's nothing compared to its inflation of the 1980s...when prices rose an average of about 300% per year. That kind of inflation does to an economy approximately what the coronavirus does. Things shut down. Businesses can't make plans. They can't invest for the future. They let workers go. People stay home. Their money loses value so fast, they try to get rid of it as soon as possible. This feeds even further price increases"¦ and less production....When it comes to making a mess of an economy, the Argentines are pros....'Here in Argentina, we know we're crazy,' says our neighbor, Ramon. 'Now, we're glad to have company.'"

Paying Americans Not to Work -Editors/Wall Street Journal
"Much of the harm from the coronavirus is unavoidable, but it would be nice if politicians didn't compound the damage by ignoring the laws of economics. The worst blunder so far on that score is the $600 increase in federal jobless benefits that is already undermining the economic recovery. On Wednesday we ran an op-ed from Kurt Huffman, whose Portland, Ore., company helps chefs run and staff their restaurants. Because of the coronavirus, he had to lay off 700 people. But some restaurants have adapted with takeout and delivery, so he needs to hire some back. Some extra unemployment insurance is necessary, but the rich extra compensation from the $2.2 trillion Cares Act is encouraging those employees to stay home....We're hearing similar stories from around the country as small business owners look to reopen on a tentative or partial basis. Employees say they'll take the unemployment check for as long as they can make more money by not working....Democrats will try to extend the $600 for another few months, and then a few more after that, as they describe anyone who disagrees as heartless...The Democratic 2020 campaign strategy is to blame Republicans for the health and economic damage from the virus. Republicans need to be able to point to an economy that is growing again by the autumn, and that means not giving Americans an incentive not to work."

Will oil's price slump be worse for the economy than the effects of the coronavirus? -NBC News
"The prospect of cheaper gas at a time when most Americans are holed up at home is not much of a silver lining to the coronavirus pandemic. Energy analysts say there is little upside to the unprecedented plunge in oil prices that sent crude oil futures spiraling into negative territory on Monday, spooking Wall Street. Patrick DeHaan, head of petroleum analysis at GasBuddy, predicted that the national average gas price could drop below $1.50 a gallon in the coming weeks, noting that a few states have already hit this benchmark. But he said drivers shouldn't expect to see gas fall as sharply as crude prices. 'Unfortunately for motorists, it may not fully make it to the pump, given that stations are trying to keep the doors open - even with volume down 50 to 70 percent,' he said....Oil prices tumbling into negative territory is a symptom of a very real problem: With demand for everything from gasoline to jet fuel plummeting, producers are literally running out of places to store oil once it leaves the ground....If prices don't regain stability, analysts' biggest fear is that the U.S. energy sector won't be able to bounce back. 'The longer oil remains this low, the more risk there is that when demand rebounds, oil production won't,' DeHaan said....'It's not just drilling wells and producers, it's everything that goes downstream"¦ pipelines, refineries, petrochemicals, oil field services,' said Peter McNally, global energy sector lead at investment and research firm Third Bridge. 'There are much broader economic implications this time. It's not just oil seeing demand drop - it's pretty much every industry,' McNally said."

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4.23.20 - Is the Coronavirus Killing Off Cash?

Gold last traded at $1,747 an ounce. Silver at $15.34 an ounce.

NEWS SUMMARY: Precious metal prices continued climbing Thursday on safe haven demand and a weaker dollar. U.S. stocks rose with oil prices as investors digested the latest downbeat U.S. unemployment and earnings data.

Gold surges nearly 2%, fueled by hopes of stimulus boost -CNBC
"Gold prices jumped as much as 1.9% on Wednesday on expectations for more fiscal and monetary stimulus measures amid massive economic damage due to stay-at-home and business shutdown orders around the world to limit the spread of the novel coronavirus....'This is the perfect storm for gold... Perpetual buyer is buying gold because of all the global stimulus going on,' said Michael Matousek, head trader at U.S. Global Investors. 'Gold is in a bull market. You'll be hard pressed to find something else that has this type of price action and this trend going on right now so you naturally have people gravitating towards it.' Gold tends to benefit from widespread stimulus measures from central banks, as it is often seen as a hedge against inflation and currency debasement....'Technically, the gold bulls have the firm overall near-term technical advantage amid price uptrends in place on the daily, weekly and monthly charts,' Kitco Metals senior analyst Jim Wyckoff said in a note. 'Bulls' next upside price objective is to produce a close in June futures above solid resistance at $1,800.'"

ATM Is the Coronavirus Killing Off Cash? -Politico
"Stores are shuttering all over the United States, and many of those still open are balking at cash. Shoppers are switching orders to Amazon and Walmart.com. Many restaurants that have stayed open won't take cash, and operate without any contact at all, requiring customers to pay first online. What once seemed like the oldest, most reliable way of paying now seems fraught: A physical object changing hands, bringing people closer than 6 feet, covered in who knows what. 'Do I want to grab the thing that you were just holding in your hand? No,' says Harvard economist Kenneth Rogoff, who has advocated for a less-cash society, and predicts the crisis 'is absolutely going to drive people to prefer credit and debit to cash.' Filling the void, in many cases, are digital payments that are quick, clean and easy. That sudden shift is a huge opportunity for tech firms such as online payments giant PayPal, which also owns the Venmo app....Now, in the U.S., the government has been moving in this direction of its own accord, discouraging paper checks in a rush to get stimulus money out to Americans. But the sharp jag away from cash also worries those who look out for older and poorer Americans - groups that tend to be more reliant on paper money either for lack of tech savvy, out of habit or because they don't participate in the formal banking system....There's an ideological component as well: Among cash's strengths is that it's universally accepted and difficult to track, giving Americans a just about anonymous way to, say, donate to their preferred church or live out their life as a persecuted minority or back a dissident group. 'Some of us still use cash because we think it's nobody's business,' says Jim Harper, a visiting fellow with the libertarian-leaning American Enterprise Institute. For more than 200 years, paper cash has been at the heart of the American economy. How close could coronavirus come to killing off cash - and if it does, is society ready?....Of course, there's another possibility. And that's that cash comes roaring back after coronavirus, perhaps something like the handshake, a practice that seemed odd, even foolhardy during the pandemic but that we return to out of habit or, as it turns out, it still has its place."

Our sleep is linked to how we process coronavirus dread -Quartz
"Whether it's insomnia, strange dreams, or even sleeping too much, sleep disturbances are part of our body's response to trauma and anxiety. Everyone will react to these situations differently - but experts have helpful information to share about ways to improve your rest. 'We are in the midst of collective trauma,' says Christy Beck, a therapist based in State College, Pennsylvania. 'And sleep disturbance is a common trauma response, along with anxiety and depression.' Beck says that stress can cause a variety of sleep disorders, including insomnia - not being able to fall asleep - and its opposite, hypersomnia....Here are some of the strategies that may help you get a better rest: 1) Keep a regular schedule. Go to sleep and wake up at the same times each day....2) Exercise regularly. Incorporate some form of physical activity into your routine....3) Self-care. Spend more time on mindfulness, coping, and taking care of yourself....4) Avoid stressors. Limit the amount of Covid-19 news you are consuming....5) Assign spaces. If possible, keep the bedroom space for sleeping....6) Be easy on yourself. Doing deep abdominal breathing, progressive muscle relaxation, or thinking of soothing imagery as you fall asleep."

Our Restaurants Can't Reopen Until August -Huffman/Wall Street Journal
"My company works with local chefs to open and operate their restaurants. We are currently a partner in more than 20 of them. We closed our dining rooms March 15, two days before the governor mandated we do so, and had to lay off some 700 employees...Although our limited operations leave us at only 30% of our usual revenue, takeout and delivery has worked better than expected at most locations. After two weeks of getting the systems in place and understanding the challenges of a different business model, we realized that we needed to hire back some of our staff to help with the demand. That proved harder than we expected. We started making the calls last week, just as our furloughed employees began receiving weekly Federal Pandemic Unemployment Compensation checks of $600 under the Cares Act. When we asked our employees to come back, almost all said, 'No thanks.' If they return to work, they'll have to take a pay cut. The starting wage for a line cook in one of our restaurants is $15 an hour. These cooks receive at least $1 an hour in tips, so at a minimum they make $16 an hour, or $640 before taxes for a 40-hour week. The overwhelming majority of our laid-off cooks qualified for Oregon unemployment compensation of 1.25% of their annual gross wages weekly, or $416 in our example. The extra $224 a week provides a strong incentive to return to work. But as of this week, that same employee receives $1,016 a week, or $376 more than he made as a full time employee. Why on earth would he want to come back to work?....And it will persist at least until July 31, when the unemployment bonus expires. I'd have to offer my cooks $25.40 an hour to match what the government is paying them not to work....We plan to open our dining rooms on Aug. 1, once the government stops paying people $15 an hour, on top of standard unemployment compensation, to stay home."

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4.22.20 - Gold to Reach $3,000 -Bank of America

Gold last traded at $1,735 an ounce. Silver at $15.28 an ounce.

NEWS SUMMARY: Precious metal prices resumed their upward climb Wednesday on safe-having buying. U.S. stocks rose for the first time in three days as crude prices tried to stabilize after a record plunge.

Gold to Reach $3,000 - 50% Above Its Record, Bank of America Says -Yahoo Finance
"Bank of America Corp. raised its 18-month gold-price target to $3,000 an ounce - more than 50% above the existing price record - in a report titled 'The Fed can't print gold.' The bank increased its target from $2,000 previously, as policy makers across the globe unleash vast amounts of fiscal and monetary stimulus to help shore up economies hurt by the coronavirus. 'As economic output contracts sharply, fiscal outlays surge, and central bank balance sheets double, fiat currencies could come under pressure,' analysts including Michael Widmer and Francisco Blanch said in the report. 'Investors will aim for gold.' BofA expects bullion to average $1,695 an ounce this year and $2,063 in 2021. The record of $1,921.17 was set in September 2011....'Beyond traditional gold supply and demand fundamentals, financial repression is back on an extraordinary scale,' the report said."

SP500 The Extremely Overvalued & Top Heavy U.S. Stock Market -Global Macro Monitor
"After the Fed effectively fully nationalized the financial markets by bailing out junk bonds on April 9th, turning Wall Street into a Soviet Sausage Factory, almost any type of analysis, which was on its way out anyway, was rendered completely meaningless. The new rocket scientists on Wall Street are the market Kremlinologists, who try to guess the new ranges where the Politburo will set yields and how many notes and bonds the Kommissar of Free Money is going to buy in order to monetize a $4 trillion-plus deficit and help rollover existing maturities. All good until it isn't. The monetary authorities had little choice but to try and keep the ship afloat to fight another day, but junk bonds? With the funky action going on in crude, the markets could use a few less drillers, ergo less supply, but that is less likely as their junk debt is now backstopped. Here's to hoping there is an adjustment to policy after the panic subsides....The market does appear to be looking forward to the other side. The new world looks like one with a few high tech giants in a less mobile (physical), work from home world. Maybe. Not sure if that is good, sustainable or the body politic will stand for it....This BofA chart comes to us via the great Kiwi analyst, Callum Thomas...As of the Friday close, the big five alone make up 17.97% of the value of almost all publicly traded stocks in the United States as measured by the Wilshire 5000. Stunning....Unless we are on the road to runaway inflation, not a zero probability with all the monetization that is coming, this bounce is an incredible gift to rebalance, take some risk off, go to the virtual beach and wait this thing out....We like to buy low, sell high. Most prices are way too high...Still sitting on the couch with cash and gold."

Senate Passes Bill for More Small-Business Stimulus -Wall Street Journal
"Congressional leaders struck a deal with the White House Tuesday to send hundreds of billion of dollars in fresh aid to small businesses and hospitals, the federal government's latest effort to keep pace with the twin economic and public health crises created by the coronavirus pandemic. The Senate on Tuesday evening passed the $484 billion bill by a voice vote, sending it to the House for an approval expected Thursday...The package, which lawmakers dubbed an interim emergency bill, also includes funding to ramp up the country's testing for the new coronavirus, but doesn't include funding sought by Democrats for hard-hit state and local budgets. Top Republicans signaled that concerns over the mounting debt would play a bigger role in talks about future stimulus aid, setting up a sharp divide with Democrats worried that Congress has done far from enough. Congress has operated in emergency mode during the outbreak, last month passing a $2.2 trillion package by consensus with minimal debate.....'At the core of our agreement is $320 billion more for the Paycheck Protection Program, which is already saving millions of small-business jobs and helping Americans get paychecks instead of pink slips,' Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell (R., Ky.) said on the Senate floor Tuesday....The bill tasks the Trump administration with outlining how the U.S. can further expand its testing capacity in a plan that will be updated every 90 days.States and localities will also be required to submit their own testing plans to the federal government."

Nobody's Talking About the Banks -Morningstar
"In the single month of October 2008, Wachovia Bank, Royal Bank of Scotland, Lloyds of London, UBS, and National City Bank vanished, being either seized by their governments or acquired at fire-sale prices by their competitors. Bank failures were the economic story of autumn 2008 - which is why that year's stock bear market is widely known as the 'global financial crisis.' Not so much in 2020. The COVID-19 crisis has elicited much discussion about widespread unemployment, gyrating stock prices, and grim prospects for companies that depend upon travel (along with bright forecasts for firms that deliver their goods or services to households). Absent from the news have been the banks. Thus far, they have steered clear of the headlines....More than half the loans of America's four largest banks - (JPMorgan Chase), (Bank of America), (Citigroup), and (Wells Fargo) - are either to businesses or for residential mortgages. Many of the former will soon default, because companies that are shuttered will likely defer their bills....Bank stocks, predictably, have been whacked. Morningstar's Diversified U.S. Banks Index has dropped 35% for the year to date, as opposed to a mere 11% for the S&P 500....The enormous uncertainty about when and how the global economy can resume something approaching normalcy overwhelms the analysis."

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4.21.20 - What's Next for Gold -The Aden Sisters

Gold last traded at $1,687 an ounce. Silver at $14.87 an ounce.

NEWS SUMMARY: Precious metal prices stepped back Tuesday on short-term profit-taking to help alleviate investor liquidity demands. U.S. stocks fell sharply once again as oil prices continued their unprecedented wipeout.

What's Next for Gold -Aden Sisters/Yahoo Finance
"Yes, the economy is going to suffer, but we don't yet know how bad it's going to be. For now, the world's big central banks and governments are doing all they can to keep the financial system working and intact. Emergency financing is needed all over the world. The Fed, for instance, is printing money like mad. They're also buying tons of U.S. government bonds, mortgage backed securities and now corporate bonds....It'll end up fueling a big inflation down the road...The bottom line, this is a major event that's going to change many things. So keep your gold and be prepared for whatever comes our way....The ratio of gold to stocks jumped up above its mega 80-month moving average, to favor gold for the first time since its high area in 2011. The trend since 1999 and this ratio have confirmed a mega trend change favoring gold. With gold above $1536, it's on its way to the 2011 highs! And indeed if gold breaks and stays above $1700, this target could be reached sooner than we think! Gold will surely be volatile as the pandemic evolves, but look at this as time to get set for the major rise should weakness occur. Gold is the strongest precious metal...It reached a record high versus silver and platinum. And it's positioned to rise in a several year rise ahead. This year will likely continue to see volatile moves with the ebbs and flows of the virus, and don't be discouraged by this."

market Dow plunges 700 points, bringing two-day losses to nearly 1,300 points -CNBC
"U.S. stocks fell sharply again on Tuesday as oil prices continued their unprecedented wipeout. The Dow Jones Industrial Average slid 700 points, or more than 2%. Tuesday's losses brought the Dow's two-day decline to nearly 1,300 points. The S&P 500 dropped 3.3% while the Nasdaq Composite fell 3.9%. Traders were focused on the strange happenings with oil futures once again, which raised concern about deep losses for the energy industry hitting the U.S. economy even further. On Monday, the May contract for oil futures expiring Tuesday fell to zero and then went to an actual negative price, meaning producers would pay for someone to take the oil off their hands. The bizarre move has to do with the fact that because of the coronavirus shutdowns, big buyers of oil like refineries don't need any more oil because their tanks are nearly filled....More concerning to traders on Tuesday was the selling now occurring in later month contracts for oil futures. The more actively traded June oil contract was down 35% at $13.27 Tuesday....Investors continued to monitor the coronavirus pandemic and the country's plan to reopen the economy. Signs have emerged that New York is past the worst of its outbreak...'Market volatility remains intense, as subtle changes in the tone of the news drives dramatic shifts in investor sentiment,' said Mark Hackett, Nationwide's chief of investment research."

Bets Against the Stock Market Rise to Highest Level in Years -Wall Street Journal
"Short sellers have revived their wagers against the stock market in recent weeks, taking their most aggressive positions in years. Bets against the SPDR S&P 500 Trust, the biggest exchange-traded fund tracking the broad index, rose to $68.1 billion last week, the highest level in data going back to January 2016, according to financial analytics company S3 Partners. That was up from $41.7 billion at the beginning of 2020 and $41.2 billion a year ago. Short sellers borrow shares and sell them, hoping to repurchase them at lower prices and keep the difference as profit. Among the individual companies they have targeted in recent weeks are travel-related firms, including Carnival Corp., Royal Caribbean Cruises Ltd., Marriott International Inc. and Wynn Resorts Ltd. Those bets come during a wild year for investors who are struggling to reconcile the impact of the coronavirus pandemic on the population and economy. The S&P 500 suffered its fastest drop from a record to a bear market in history - ultimately falling 34% between Feb. 19 and March 23....'We've really seen a significant bounceback in the last three weeks at levels that I think are too quick,' said Jerry Braakman, chief investment officer at First American Trust....Investors are bracing for the possibility of more volatility this week, as earnings reports from companies including Coca-Cola Co., Netflix Inc. and Delta Air Lines Inc. give another glimpse at how the coronavirus is reshaping the landscape for U.S. business."

Why Walking Matters - Now More Than Ever -Wall Street Journal
"Why does walking make us feel good?...Walking is especially important now, with gyms and team sports shut down. It's one of our few accessible forms of exercise but also one that is directly affected by stay-at-home orders....Walking is somehow more 'mindful' now. What we probably don't realize is that walking can be a kind of a behavioral preventive against depression. It benefits us on many levels, physical and psychological. Walking helps to produce protein molecules in muscle and brain that help repair wear and tear. These muscle and brain molecules - myokines and neurotrophic factors, respectively - have been intensively studied in recent years for their health effects....Walking upright is one thing that sets humans apart; no other animal does it, but we can't do without it....Movement through the world changes the dynamics of the brain itself. Recent experiments show that walking increases the strength of the signals in parts of the brain concerned with seeing and other senses, such as touch....Recent experiments show that as few as three or four days of inactivity reduces muscle mass in the legs, starting to replace muscle with deposits of fat. This isn't much of a problem when you're 30, but it is when you are 60...The cure? Get up, walk about and fight the frailty that can come with aging. Walking is the movement that we all profit from...Walk we must, and walk we should, to keep our mental and physical worlds open and to stop the walls from closing in."

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4.20.20 - Can America's Safety Net Be Fixed?

Gold last traded at $1,710 an ounce. Silver at $15.53 an ounce.

NEWS SUMMARY: Precious metal prices rose Monday on safe-haven buying despite a firmer dollar. U.S. stocks fell as investors weighed the latest coronavirus news along with a decline in U.S. crude prices.

Why people consider gold to be a "˜safe haven' in crises like the coronavirus -CNBC
"'Gold is a way of going long on fear,' renowned investor Warren Buffett once said....Investors' fear levels are particularly high right now, as the coronavirus pandemic turned a global health crisis into an economic one. And it's uncertain when the world will recover from either of these crises. It is in such times of uncertainty that gold is touted as a 'safe haven' for those looking for shelter from more traditionally volatile investments, like stocks. 'Compared to an investment in stocks, where even the biggest blue chip companies can (and have) failed, an investment in gold often seems less risky,' said Adam Vettese, market analyst at investment platform eToro. As the world's earliest form of currency, gold's physical properties have meant it has long been considered a reliable store of value. It is widely available enough to trade but is in finite supply, so is rare enough to be considered valuable and unlike some metals it is not corrosive, making it durable....Gold is also considered a good hedge against the risk of inflation because the rising cost of goods and services tends to erode the value of the dollar."

oil Oil Futures Crash By Most On Record, Tumbling To $11 Per Barrel -Zero Hedge
"Oil future prices crashed the most on record with the May WTI futures contract hitting its lowest level since 1999, plunging as low as $11 or down 38%, as nobody wants to take actual physical storage amid widespread fears crude storage will soon be full; meanwhile companies prepare to report the worst quarterly earnings since the financial crisis, while tens of thousands of people continue to get sick every day with the coronavirus...The sell-off was exaggerated by the contract's Tuesday expiry because no one wants to be left long to take delivery as there is nowhere to put the physical product. In any case, the 37% drop was the biggest one-day drop on record!....Meanwhile, with a record 198MMb/d now stored offshore, the volume of oil held in U.S. storage, especially at Cushing is rising as refiners throttle back activity in the face of weak demand. 'As production continues relatively unscathed, storage is filling up by the day. The world is using less and less oil and producers now feel how this translates in prices,' said Rystad's head of oil markets, Bjornar Tonhaugen....After starting off higher, U.S. equity futures fell alongside European and Asian stocks on Monday as investors grappled with everything from the spread of the coronavirus to oil's collapse and the next raft of corporate earnings."

Social Distancing Has Made All of Us Helpers -Elemental/Medium
"The world is a frightening, uncertain place right now. But like Mr. Rogers said, when scary things happen, 'Look for the helpers. You will always find people who are helping.' In our current reality, helping looks different than it normally does. Instead of giving a friend a hug, bringing a neighbor soup, or volunteering in the community, it means staying home in order to flatten the curve. Stanford psychology professor Jamil Zaki, PhD, author of the book The War for Kindness: Building Empathy in a Fractured World, says that rather than making people act more selfishly, disasters bring out the altruistic urge in all of us. Elemental spoke with Zaki to understand how altruism is playing a role in the response to the coronavirus pandemic and find out how to strengthen feelings of empathy if you find yourself lagging....Jamil Zaki: Something like social distancing - I prefer the term physical distancing - would be a collective action problem. It's something where people have to work together and make sacrifices to assure a much more important, larger optimal outcome for a group. I think a media narrative that we hear often is that disasters bring out the worst in people and create social disorder...But when those norms go away, we revert to super-selfish, almost violent animalistic urges to protect and get whatever we want. It turns out that narrative is almost entirely backwards. During disasters, people are actually much kinder and more prosocial toward each other - not even kinder than they are cruel, but kinder than they are typically...We're all sharing this experience, and that shared experience is a vast conduit to kindness and altruism....My book is all about the idea that empathy is a skill, one we can learn through practice. And I think that is a really interesting part about this moment...the fact that we're all stuck in this new normal together, gives us the opportunity to create shared bonds that could last for a really long time."

Covid-19 shows where America's safety net is broken. Maybe now we can fix it. -Quartz
"Tens of millions of workers and their families are facing economic catastrophe. Along with the risk of contracting Covid-19, they are contending with cut hours, furloughs, and record-breaking job losses...As Americans are forced to confront both a health and economic crisis, many are relying on a safety net that is inadequate, inequitable, and antiquated....The coronavirus has shown a spotlight on these challenges, and increases the urgency to develop new and better systems that can help all workers, and not just those fortunate enough to work for a specific employer or meet specific eligibility requirements....As the economy eventually recovers, the job search and re-employment requirements for those receiving unemployment benefits need to be revised to consider the range of ways people work in the 21st century. Unemployment insurance typically requires recipients to demonstrate that they are actively seeking full-time work. Evidence from prior recessions suggests that available jobs are likely to include part-time, occasional, and independent arrangements. Taking advantage of these options can be an on-road in the short term to badly needed income and, in the long term, to more traditional employment....In times of economic crisis, unemployment insurance has a critical role to play in helping people who are struggling to afford rent, food, and other basic expenses. Important short-term reforms have been made to address the long-standing holes in the system. The question remains, however, whether unemployment insurance can be modernized into a 21st-century program that provides benefits to all workers, or whether the crisis will pass and a critical part of the safety net will be forgotten again until the next crisis emerges."

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4.17.20 - What's Behind the Push for a Cashless Society?

Gold last traded at $1,694 an ounce. Silver at $15.29 an ounce.

NEWS SUMMARY: Precious metal prices eased back Friday on profit-taking despite a weaker dollar. U.S. stocks rose amid rising hope that a Gilead Sciences drug would prove to be an effective treatment of the coronavirus.

Gold's Transformation To A Currency Has Begun -Seeking Alpha
"It appears that the bubble has been broken, and the facade of manipulation by the Feds has been revealed. The system was very fragile and risky. All we needed was something like COVID-19 to push us over the edge. Gold is transforming from a commodity into an alternative currency of a sort. We are looking at a paradigm shift in relation to interest rates. The government has suppressed the price of gold and many other assets. This has distorted the financial system, and we are now looking for the markets to find the real prices of various assets...The volatility we are seeing from stocks to commodities to bonds is a reflection of this attempt to re-calibrate the prices of all of these assets. No one really knows what is going to happen at this stage. We are in the midst of a major economic transformation. We have a triple threat of an economic, health, and political crisis all at once....The precious metals are becoming a real safe-haven asset once again. It is one of the ways to hedge against the potential crises that we are facing. This huge adjustment to the crisis also presents massive opportunities, such as in the precious metals markets....Silver is the most oversold asset. The price does not reflect the current economic condition which we are in. It has been suppressed, just as gold has been....With some fears that cash may be infected with the coronavirus, it may be a time to introduce a virtual currency backed by gold. Maybe. We believe that the precious metals markets, and especially gold, are going to do very, very well during and after the current crisis. Gold may be the way to restore confidence in the monetary system."

get well Gilead data suggests coronavirus patients are responding to treatment -Stat News
"A Chicago hospital treating severe Covid-19 patients with Gilead Sciences' antiviral medicine remdesivir in a closely watched clinical trial is seeing rapid recoveries in fever and respiratory symptoms, with nearly all patients discharged in less than a week, STAT has learned. Remdesivir was one of the first medicines identified as having the potential to impact SARS-CoV-2, the novel coronavirus that causes Covid-19, in lab tests. The entire world has been waiting for results from Gilead's clinical trials, and positive results would likely lead to fast approvals by the Food and Drug Administration and other regulatory agencies. If safe and effective, it could become the first approved treatment against the disease. The University of Chicago Medicine recruited 125 people with Covid-19 into Gilead's two Phase 3 clinical trials. Of those people, 113 had severe disease. All the patients have been treated with daily infusions of remdesivir. 'The best news is that most of our patients have already been discharged, which is great. We've only had two patients perish,' said Kathleen Mullane, the University of Chicago infectious disease specialist overseeing the remdesivir studies for the hospital....In scientific terms, all the data are anecdotal until the full trial reads out, meaning that they should not be used to draw final conclusions. But some of the anecdotes are dramatic."

COVID-19 and the War on Cash: What Is Behind the Push for a Cashless Society? -Whitehead/Global Research
"Cash may well become a casualty of the COVID-19 pandemic. As these COVID-19 lock downs drag out, more and more individuals and businesses are going cashless (for convenience and in a so-called effort to avoid spreading coronavirus germs), engaging in online commerce or using digital forms of currency (bank cards, digital wallets, etc.). As a result, physical cash is no longer king. Yet there are other, more devious, reasons for this re-engineering of society away from physical cash: a cashless society - easily monitored, controlled, manipulated, weaponized and locked down - would play right into the hands of the government (and its corporate partners). To this end, the government and its corporate partners-in-crime have been waging a subtle war on cash for some time now....Much like the war on drugs and the war on terror, this so-called 'war on cash' is being sold to the public as a means of fighting terrorists, drug dealers, tax evaders and now COVID-19 germs. Digital currency provides the government and its corporate partners with the ultimate method to track, control you and punish you. In recent years, just the mere possession of significant amounts of cash could implicate you in suspicious activity and label you a criminal....It's not just cash that is going digital, either. A growing number of states are looking to adopt digital driver's licenses that would reside on your mobile phone. These licenses would include all of the information contained on your printed license, along with a few 'extras' such as real-time data downloaded directly from your state's Department of Motor Vehicles. Of course, reading between the lines, having a digital driver's license will open you up to much the same jeopardy as digital cash: it will make it possible for the government to better track your movements, monitor your activities and communications and ultimately shut you down....If there's one entity that will not stop using cash for its own nefarious purposes, it's the U.S. government. Cash is the currency used by the government to pay off its foreign 'associates.' For instance, the Obama administration flew more than $400 million in cash to Iran, reportedly as part of a financial settlement with the country. Critics claim the money was ransom paid for the return of American hostages....So when government economists tell you that two-thirds of all $100 bills in circulation are overseas - more than half a trillion dollars' worth - it's a pretty good bet that the government played a significant part in their export."

The Pandemic of Fear and Agony -Brooks/New York Times
"Last week I asked you to tell me about your mental health - how you are faring in this hard time...There have been over 5,000 replies so far, and while many people are hanging in there, there is also a river of woe running through the world - a significant portion of our friends and neighbors are in agony. A college student in State College, Pa., wrote that at first the lockdown seemed like a lark - a chance to get out of certain obligations. But 'now almost a month into staying here, I've been gripped by a deep depression. My appetite is very low. I'm sleeping far too much to feel as lethargic as I do. My future, which seemed so bright a few months ago as I anticipated graduating in May, now seems bleak and hopeless: How will I find a job with the economy tanking? How will I pay hundreds of dollars per month when my loan bills kick in during August?'....Senior citizens are especially hard hit, particularly the widows and widowers. For many, it's the painful sense of missing their grandkids, the precarity of living with a disease that could kill them at any time. For others, it's the wrenching loneliness. 'The combination of isolation and stress is having compounded impact. I am 65, and a single woman with no nearby family. My surviving sibling lives several hours away.'....Some people are active for days, frantically cleaning the house, and then one day they just shut down and cry. A person from Denver is worn down by being so suspicious of others and asked, 'Why am I suddenly afraid of the mail carrier or the food delivery?'....There's a heroism in the vulnerability you display in these letters, a courageous willingness to share your fears...spiritual growth pulses through the paragraphs. An atheist wrote that he prays daily, though he doesn't know to whom. Many people are reading Viktor Frankl. 'I am looking at this as a type of monastic retreat. I am hoping that we come out of this crisis as a nation with a renewed sense of perspective, a new sense of our dependence on each other.' I'm reminded that this is a time to practice aggressive friendship with each other - to be the one who seeks out the lonely and the troubled. It's also true that character is formed in times like this. People see deeper into themselves, bravely learn what their pain is teaching them, and become wiser and softer as a result."

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4.16.20 - How Coronavirus Is Eroding Privacy

Gold last traded at $1,735 an ounce. Silver at $15.64 an ounce.

NEWS SUMMARY: Precious metal prices rose again Thursday on safe-haven buying despite a firmer dollar. U.S. stocks traded mixed in volatile trading as Amazon and Netflix reached record levels, while investors digested data reflecting the economic devastation from the coronavirus pandemic.

Gold rises 1% as central bank stimulus fuels investor interest -CNBC
"Gold prices rose more than 1% on Thursday as a raft of stimulus measures from central banks to counteract the coronavirus crisis drove investors into bullion as a safe store of value, while sombre U.S. economic reports stoked fears of a global recession....'The main factor supporting gold at the moment is the extraordinary amount of stimulus from central banks. I don't think it's been fully priced in yet,' OANDA analyst Craig Erlam said. 'The record highs hit in the aftermath of the global financial crisis, and even higher, look perfectly reasonable, under the circumstances. The $1,800 level does not seem very far away.'....Gold, which is often used as a safe store of value during times of political and financial uncertainty, is highly sensitive to interest rates, as lower rates reduce the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding bullion. Central banks have rolled out a wave of fiscal and monetary measures to ease the economic damage from the virus, which has infected more than 2 million people globally and killed 136,667....'While gold will continue to be in demand, sometimes investors need funds to cover their margin calls, so losses in other financial assets might lead to falls in the gold price,' said John Sharma, economist at National Australia Bank."

watching How Coronavirus Is Eroding Privacy -Wall Street Journal
"The Covid-19 pandemic is ushering in a new era of digital surveillance and rewiring the world's sensibilities about data privacy. Governments are imposing new digital surveillance tools to track and monitor individuals. Many citizens have welcomed tracking technology intended to bolster defenses against the novel coronavirus. Yet some privacy advocates are wary, concerned that governments might not be inclined to unwind such practices after the health emergency has passed. Authorities in Asia, where the virus first emerged, have led the way. Many governments didn't seek permission from individuals before tracking their cellphones to identify suspected coronavirus patients...In Europe and the U.S., where privacy laws and expectations are more stringent, governments and companies are taking different approaches. European nations monitor citizen movement by tapping telecommunications data that they say conceals individuals' identities. American officials are drawing cellphone location data from mobile advertising firms to track the presence of crowds - but not individuals. Apple Inc. and Google recently announced plans to launch a voluntary app that health officials can use to reverse-engineer sickened patients' recent whereabouts - provided they agree to provide such information....Data flowing from the world's 5.2 billion smartphones can help identify who, where and how people get infected - and lasso in those who might. The extent of tracking hinges on a series of tough choices: Make it voluntary or mandatory? Collect personal or anonymized data? Disclose information publicly or privately?....Surveillance efforts this time around have a new ally: public-health experts. They say some form of digital tracking will be necessary in the months ahead, even as people return to more normal lives after city lockdowns relax....Lawmakers are learning that voluntary contact-tracing apps that claim to preserve users' privacy, such as the one proposed by Apple and Google, aren't effective without high levels of participation."

Money Is Losing Its Meaning -Bloomberg/Yahoo Finance
"Doing 'whatever it takes' to save the global economy from the coronavirus pandemic is going to cost a lot of money. The U.S. government alone is spending a few trillion dollars, and the Federal Reserve is creating another few trillion dollars to keep the financial system from collapsing....These numbers are so large that they no longer have any meaning; they are simply abstractions. It's been some time since people thought about the concept of money and its purpose...Former Fed Chairman Paul Volcker once said in an interview that 'it is a governmental responsibility to maintain the value of the currency they issue. And when they fail to do that, it is something that undermines an essential trust in government.' The dollar has no real intrinsic value, backed only by the full faith and credit of the U.S. government. Under a fiat currency system, the government says that a dollar is a dollar. Its value relative to things such as other currencies and gold is determined on global markets. Gold is considered to be an objective store of value, and the metal's rise in dollar terms can be expressed another way, which is that the dollar fell in gold terms. The three main functions of a currency are as a unit of account, a medium of exchange and a store of value. It is that last function that is most important....Nobody really knows how this is going to turn out. In smaller economies, runaway government spending has resulted in hyperinflation and social unrest, such as well-documented cases in Venezuela and Zimbabwe. Many think that wouldn't be possible in the U.S. given the dollar's role as the world's primary reserve currency. Perhaps, but it's not one of those questions we'd really want to experiment with. If all this money that's being created does spark inflation, it will be difficult - if not impossible - to reverse....Throughout Venezuela's economic crisis, we saw images of Venezuelans tossing their useless bolivars in the streets. That is what happens when money has lost all meaning."

This is the end of the office as we know it -Vox
"If and when you return to your office after the novel coronavirus pandemic, you'll probably notice some differences. Upon entering your building, the doors may open automatically so you don't have to touch the handles. Before you board your elevator, you might tell the elevator where you'd like to go, rather than pressing the many buttons within the elevator. When you reach your floor, you could walk into a room full of dividers and well-spaced desks instead of the crowded open floor plan you're used to. In common areas like meeting rooms and kitchens, expect to see fewer chairs and posted documentation of the last time they were cleaned....Of course, this is all assuming you go back to your old office at all. As the coronavirus takes a steep toll on the economy and the workforce, many won't have jobs to go back to. Some who are still employed will now permanently work from home, and some employers will choose to downsize their leases or look for flexible office space rather than long-term leases....Just as policies around telehealth and liquor have quickly shifted, the Covid-19 crisis will force swift and permanent changes in both commercial real estate and work culture itself. The office as we know it will never be the same. According to a new MIT report, 34 percent of Americans who previously commuted to work report that they were working from home by the first week of April due to the coronavirus. These new numbers represent a seismic shift in work culture. Prior to the pandemic, the number of people regularly working from home remained in the single digits, with only about 4 percent of the US workforce working from home at least half the time....Regardless of how prepared they were, people have done what they had to do to make working from home work. In doing so, they moved the needle on what's acceptable in the at-home office. 'It added some humanity to us,' said Kate Lister, president of consulting firm Global Workplace Analytics. 'You don't have a choice: The dog is going to walk through the meeting, your child is going to walk through. Period. We've just relaxed our standards to that. Maybe it will bring us closer.'"

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4.15.20 - A Second Round of Coronavirus Layoffs Has Begun

Gold last traded at $1,744 an ounce. Silver at $15.61 an ounce.

NEWS SUMMARY: Precious metal prices consolidated recent gains Wednesday on mild profit-taking and a firmer dollar. U.S. stock resume their decline as dismal economic data and weak bank earnings fueled concerns over the coronavirus's impact on the U.S. economy.

A gold price rally to $2,000 would not be a surprise -Sprott/Kitco
"Gold prices have pushed to nearly an eight-year high, and this is only the start as investors should keep an eye on the precious metal's long-term outlook, according to one gold fund executive. In a telephone interview with Kitco News, Peter Grosskopf, chief executive officer at Sprott Inc., said that the gold market's future looks bright as the global economy deals with unprecedented stimulus during a time of unprecedented uncertainty. 'Investors should continue to consider gold as a unit of currency or a purchasing power that can maintain its value against other assets,' he said.....'Gold has been acting very well in the last month. All the technicals show that its uptrend will be maintained in the short, medium and long term,' he said. 'We would expect to see prices over $2,000 by sometime early next year. That is not a surprise, fundamentally either, in the current environment.'....He added that there is scope for gold to do well in both an inflationary and deflationary environment. 'If you get deflation and you get a real crash in the financial system, want to be holding some gold,' he said. 'And if you get the recovery, you will now have an extra $6 or $7 trillion floating around financial markets. That is when you really want to hold some gold to protect against inflation."

bear Why the stock market is nowhere near a bottom -Marketwatch
"Stock prices have rebounded on the news that the COVID-19 pandemic is improving in New York and other parts of the U.S., and on the news that the Fed unveiled another $2.3 trillion bazooka of liquidity. Despite these positives, several important factors, including long-term market psychology, technical-cycle analysis, valuation, and smart investor behavior, suggest that this bear market has not yet seen its low point. 1. Investors are too bullish - Instead of fear, investors are exhibiting signs of greed. Investor psychology just doesn't behave that way at major market lows. 2. No technical signs of a long-term bottom: I see no signs of a long-term bottom....Market bottoms are also characterized by changes in leadership. Bear markets are forms of creative destruction. 3. Valuation headwinds: The S&P is currently trading at a forward P/E ratio of 17.3, which is above its 5-year average of 16.7 and 10-year average of 15.0....The 2002-2003 bottom saw a forward P/E ratio of about 14...The 1987, 1990, 2009, and 2011 bottoms all saw forward P/E ratios of about 10. 4. What are smart investors doing? ...What has Berkshire done now? It is raising cash. Unless a population were to acquire herd immunity, either allowing COVID-19 to run rampant through its people, or through some medical treatment that controls the outbreak, governments are going to be playing the game of whack-a-mole with this virus for some time."

The End of Cash? -BloombergQuint
"Do we still need cash? Humans have used all sorts of things as stores of value - rare metals, strings of shells, even jugs of whiskey. Over time the objects have become more ephemeral, from coins to paper to digital forms....As the coronavirus pandemic spread in early 2020, some merchants in Seattle and Sydney tried to stop accepting cash altogether, calling it unsanitary. (Some U.S. cities have made cashless stores illegal to prevent discrimination.)....Some economists say that without cash, central banks could fight recessions more effectively because they'd have an effective way to impose negative interest rates - basically a tax on savings meant to spur spending. Critics say that in a digital-only economy, governments and banks could take control of your financial life, leaving you penniless with a flick of a switch....For governments, getting rid of cash would cut minting and distribution expenses and make it easier to crack down on tax evasion and drug trafficking. Stores could save on cash-handling costs, reduce theft and possibly earn more if faster checkouts led to more transactions per hour, as some salad chains found in a trial...The Fed has stayed on the sidelines, saying there are 'substantial' issues around cybersecurity to be resolved. For the world's poor, going cashless would cut both ways."

A Second Round of Coronavirus Layoffs Has Begun -Wall Street Journal
"The first people to lose their jobs worked at restaurants, malls, hotels and other places that closed to contain the coronavirus pandemic. Higher skilled work, which often didn't require personal contact, seemed more secure. That's not how it's turning out. A second wave of job loss is hitting those who thought they were safe. Businesses that set up employees to work from home are laying them off as sales plummet. Corporate lawyers are seeing jobs dry up. Government workers are being furloughed as state and city budgets are squeezed. And health-care workers not involved in fighting the pandemic are suffering. The longer shutdowns continue, the bigger this second wave could become, risking a repeat of the deep and prolonged labor downturn that accompanied the 2007-09 recession. The consensus of 57 economists surveyed this month by The Wall Street Journal is that 14.4 million jobs will be lost in the coming months, and the unemployment rate will rise to a record 13% in June, from a 50-year low of 3.5% in February....The biggest wild card in the jobs outlook is how long it will take for jobs to bounce back, which depends heavily on how long the pandemic and social distancing measures last. The consensus among the economists surveyed by the Journal is for employment to return to its February 2020 level in 27 months."

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4.14.20 - Morgan Stanley Publishes COVID-19 Timeline

Gold last traded at $1,768 an ounce. Silver at $15.95 an ounce.

NEWS SUMMARY: Precious metal prices rose again sharply Tuesday on safe-haven buying and a weaker dollar. U.S. stocks rose as investors grew more optimistic about the coronavirus outlook while bracing for the start of the corporate earnings season.

Coronavirus Economic Reopening Will Be Fragile, Partial and Slow -Wall Street Journal
"Executives around the world who rapidly overhauled operations when the coronavirus struck, and the politicians who made them do it, are now focused on restarting the economy and their own businesses. That restart, according to interviews with leaders across a range of industries, suggests that back to normal will be anything but. The re-emergence over the coming weeks and months will be fitful, fragile and partial - and a bit dystopian, with frequent temperature checks, increased monitoring of employees and customers, and, potentially, blood tests to determine whether workers have likely immunity to the virus. Officials and business leaders predict that operations won't fully return to normal until an effective vaccine hits the market, estimated at least a year away....In many ways, companies are at the mercy of local and national governments to ensure that the reopening doesn't reinvigorate the virus, which has so far infected nearly 1.8 million people world-wide and caused at least 110,000 deaths. Large-scale testing and tracing programs will become the norm, placing the average person under much greater scrutiny by the state....'Testing capacity, which we still have to develop, that is going to be the bridge from where we are today to the new economy in my opinion,' New York Gov. Andrew Cuomo said Wednesday. 'It's going to be a testing-informed transition to the new economy.'....School systems and colleges are planning scenarios for a hoped-for return to campus in the fall, if not earlier. 'Do we thin the number of people on campus? Does it mean more online instruction? We're planning for any and all of those, including a very different type of year next year,' said David Greene, president of Colby College a private liberal-arts college in Waterville, Maine."

gold Gold's Powerful Rally Brings $1,800 Into View -Bloomberg
"Gold extended its rally to hit the highest in more than seven years on concern that the coronavirus pandemic will have a deep effect on the global economy, hammering corporate earnings while supercharging demand for havens. Gold prices in New York moved closer to $1,800 an ounce, a level last seen in 2011. Spreads between futures and spot prices remain wide, suggesting thinner liquidity, which is further exacerbating price dislocation. 'Liquidity conditions are challenging and market participants are understandably cautious,' said precious metal strategist Joni Teves....Bullion has soared this year as the global heath crisis tipped economies toward recession and spurred central bank interventions....Overall, gold still has room to run, according to Hans Goetti, founder and chief executive officer of HG Research. 'What's happening here is that the Fed is expanding its balance sheet and every other central bank in the world is doing the same,' he told Bloomberg TV. 'What you're looking at is massive currency debasement in the long term. That's the major reason why gold is higher, and I would think that over the next few weeks or months, we''re probably going to retest the high that we saw in 2011.'"

Morgan Stanley Publishes Full Timeline Of Upcoming Coronavirus Milestones -Zero Hedge
"Now that it has become clear that every day that the US economic shutdown continues as a result of the coronavirus pandemic means billions in economic losses and untold damages to the social fabric of the United States where over 20 million people will soon be unemployed, what all analysts - and frankly everyone else - want to know is 1) when will the US reach the peak of the coronavirus curve and 2) when will the US start reopening. Addressing the first, the latest JPMorgan coronavirus 'curve' showed the US fast approaching the peak of the curve, i.e., the end of the 'late accumulation' phase, and sliding into recovery. Yet while the first wave of the pandemic appears to be approaching its zenith, the big concern is that a second, even more powerful wave may emerge afterwards if the Spanish flu pandemic is any indication....Morgan Stanley's chief biotech analyst Matthew Harrison writes that 'recovering from this acute period in the outbreak is just the beginning and not the end' and 'the path to re-opening the economy is going to be long. It will require turning on and off various forms of social distancing and will only come to an end when vaccines are available, in the spring of 2021 at the earliest.'....'This view on the delayed peak and slow return to work has led our US economists to revise their US forecast to a return to pre-COVID-19 levels not until 4Q21,' Harrison writes, but concludes on a positive note, pointing out that there are promising antivirals and antibody therapies in the pipeline with data starting in April and continuing through the late summer."

Coronavirus economy could burst America's big-city rent bubble -NBC News
"The gridlocked coronavirus economy could upend housing from coast to coast, bursting national apartment rents that have risen by 150 percent over the last decade, experts say....More than half of the 600 concerned landlords on a conference call Wednesday with the Apartment Association of Greater Los Angeles said they have tenants who haven't fully paid their April rent, according to Executive Director Daniel Yukelson. 'It does show you the impacts the crisis is having on both owners and renters,' he said by email. Overheated rents are blamed in part for the rise in homelessness and 'deaths of despair,' as well as the need for 13 million Americans to take on more than one job. More than a third of U.S. homes are rented....'Rents will fall,' said David Shulman, a senior economist with the Anderson Forecast at UCLA. 'But income is going to drop.' The months ahead could bring a construction slowdown caused by a skittish luxury market, while landlords could face their own cash crunches as renters default, said Whitney Airgood-Obrycki, a research associate at Harvard University's Joint Center for Housing Studies. It's also likely that many renters will move in with family and friends and that homelessness will continue to rise, she said. 'With this pandemic, what is likely to happen is people will lose a significant portion of income, so we're likely to see more doubling up for housing,' she said. 'We're also going to see rent discounting and a lot of rent concessions.'....Some Airbnb hosts affected by the freeze on travel and tourism say they're considering opening their units to long-term renters, which could increase supply and, theoretically, depress rents....Some experts believe the impact of the coronavirus on the economy could upend housing in the U.S., with density pressure in markets like New York, Los Angeles and San Francisco giving way to renewed migration to the suburbs."

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4.13.20 - Virus Has Transformed How Americans Spend

Gold last traded at $1,767 an ounce. Silver at $15.64 an ounce.

NEWS SUMMARY: Precious metal prices rose sharply Monday on continued safe-haven buying despite a firmer dollar. U.S. stocks resumed their decline as investors continued to weigh the coronavirus outlook along with a historic oil production cut.

Why Gold Continues to Make Higher Highs -McCullough/Hedgeye
"The runway for gold is clear to make its fourth set of higher highs from the low end of where we got it. For a lot of you who are new to our process, we've been buying gold since $1200 back in October of 2018. That's when the peak of the U.S. Economic Cycle was in. Now you know that historical fact. That's when you should have started buying Treasuries, buying Gold, and buying Utilities. There are four specific ramps in Gold going to new highs, and you could have risk managed them the whole way. Now some people who are new to this, and some people who don't do what I tell them to do...Then they turn to me and say 'Keith I'm not getting the low end of the range!' Well that's really not my problem. Unfortunately you weren't following us back in 2018. This has been a core position and it's all systems go."

earnings Looming Earnings Season Offers Next Test for Stock Market -Wall Street Journal
"The kickoff of earnings season this week will give investors a first glimpse of the impact of the coronavirus shutdown on corporate profits - and potentially clues about the outlook for the rest of the year....The pandemic is expected to cause a severe economic contraction and a sharp decline in corporate earnings in 2020. What remains unknown is the extent of the damage. Companies from General Electric Co. to FedEx Corp. and Starbucks Corp. have warned they can no longer forecast their own results in a period of such uncertainty. Businesses across the country say revenue has evaporated following stay-at-home orders and the closure of nonessential businesses, leading them to furlough employees and drastically cut spending as they try to stay afloat....Some analysts worry the stock market is on the cusp of a reckoning and another painful selloff could be in store if corporate profits plunge. Others fear Wall Street's current earnings estimates don't fully reflect the extent of the expected damage....FactSet projects a 9% year-over-year decline in earnings for all of 2020, based on analysts' expectations for individual companies in the S&P 500, a sharp reversal from the 9.2% growth anticipated as last year ended."

Fed's Kashkari Says U.S. May Face 18 Months of Rolling Shutdowns -Bloomberg
"Without an effective therapy or a vaccine for the novel coronavirus, the U.S. economy could face 18 months of rolling shutdowns as the outbreak recedes and flares up again, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis President Neel Kashkari said. 'We're looking around the world. As they relax the economic controls, the virus flares back up again,' Kashkari said Sunday on CBS's 'Face the Nation.' Kashkari is a voter in 2020 on the Fed's policy-setting Federal Open Market Committee. 'We could have these waves of flareups, controls, flareups and controls until we actually get a therapy or a vaccine. I think we should all be focusing on an 18-month strategy for our health care system and our economy.'....Dr. Anthony Fauci, director of the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases, said Sunday on CNN's 'State of the Union' that a partial reopening of the economy could possibly begin in May, but cautioned that the outbreak could flare up again in the fall....The economic pain is already severe. Almost 17 million people have filed for U.S. unemployment benefits in the last three weeks, implying a jobless rate of around 13% or 14%, with output in the second quarter expected to shrink sharply."

How the Virus Transformed the Way Americans Spend Their Money -New York Times
"The coronavirus has profoundly altered daily life in America, ushering in sweeping upheavals to the U.S. economy. Among the most immediate effects of the crisis? Radical changes to how people spend their money. In a matter of weeks, pillars of American industry essentially ground to a halt. Airplanes, restaurants and arenas were suddenly empty. In many states, businesses deemed nonessential - including luxury goods retailers and golf courses - were ordered closed. 'This is the sharpest decline in consumer spending that we have ever seen,' said Luke Tilley, chief economist at Wilmington Trust....Some companies like Walmart, Amazon and Uber Eats have seen spikes in purchases. But customers of many other businesses have simply stopped spending, the data shows....Beyond contributing to a record surge in unemployment claims, the ruined restaurant industry is likely to aggravate the country's broader economic woes. 'The service economy has traditionally been the thing that has helped keep the downturn from going too low,' Mr. Tilley said. 'In this case, the forced stoppage of consumer spending on these things is precipitating the economic crisis.'....For many, working from home has meant an end to commuting. As a result, taxis, ride sharing companies like Uber and Lyft, mass transit and parking services have all seen precipitous declines in sales....Spending is even down broadly across the health care industry for now, as those who conduct elective procedures, dentists and specialists not working on the coronavirus response are doing less business. Some hospitals, faced with lower revenues from canceled nonemergency work, have furloughed or cut the pay of doctors, nurses and other staff members."

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4.9.20 - You Need Gold! -Forbes

Gold last traded at $1,731 an ounce. Silver at $15.80 an ounce.

NEWS SUMMARY: Precious metal prices shot up 2% Thursday as expanding Fed stimulus weakened the dollar. U.S. stocks rose as investors cheered the latest Fed efforts to support the economy and financial markets.

The U.S. Desperately Needs Inflation And You Need Gold -Haber/Forbes
"The United States fiscal and monetary worlds have entered a paradigm shift. Hard money, the Gold standard, fiscal austerity, the Federal Reserve as liquidity provider at a penalty rate with strong collateral: all of these are now squarely in the rear-view mirror. We have further moved on from ZIRP (Zero Interest rate policy), past Quantitative Easing (QE - AKA money printing), and have entered the world of Modern Monetary Theory (MMT). What is MMT? The federal government, through the Federal Reserve, prints as much money as politicians need for whatever purpose, and when you get inflation you tax the rich to slow it down....For years, prognosticators and politicians looking at the ballooning debt and deficits thought we could grow or tax our way out of trouble. Not anymore: The only way out of our ballooning fiscal crisis is to engender some inflation....We came into this virus war with $23T of federal debt and we will probably exit the fiscal 2020 year at close to $30T...The effects of this recession will lay bare these problems and only one solution: Make a trillion seem like a $100 bn through inflation....If the Fed wants more inflation, I want more gold. Our portfolios have had 5-10% for a while now and we are moving up to 15% - but 20% is not out of the realm of possibilities. I want it before the inflation arrives. The great hockey player Wayne Gretsky said 'skate to where the puck is going to be, not where it has been'. Gold will be where the money supply (m2) and inflation will take it....The CEO of Canadian gold miner Novagold recently said; 'What we've seen in the gold industry is that gold production has effectively peaked'. We have a good shot at new highs soon, after which we will go as far as the Fed is willing to take us. Prepare for the new paradigm."

chopper Fed Announces New Facilities to Support $2.3 Trillion in Lending -Wall Street Journal
"The Federal Reserve unveiled an array of programs Thursday that it said would provide $2.3 trillion in loans, expanding the Fed's operations to reach small and midsize businesses and U.S. cities and states. The Fed also said it would include some classes of riskier debt that had been excluded....They take the Fed well beyond the lender-of-last-resort functions it played in 2008 to prevent a financial panic from deepening the economic downturn....'Our country's highest priority must be to address this public-health crisis, providing care for the ill and limiting the further spread of the virus,' said Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell in a statement. The Fed said it would allow new classes of debt in the previously announced Term Asset-Backed Securities Lending Facility, or TALF, that were excluded from that facility when it was used after the 2008 financial crisis to support consumer and business credit markets. The Fed will now accept triple-A rated tranches of existing commercial mortgage-backed securities and newly issued collateralized loan obligations. Under TALF, the Fed lends money to investors to buy securities backed by credit-card loans and other consumer debt....After firing its arsenal at funding markets last month to prevent a public-health crisis from morphing into a financial crisis, the Fed later said it would throw another kitchen sink at credit markets that have broken down."

Great Depression Is Closest Parallel to Pandemic -Odey/Bloomberg
"The global economy is slipping into a 'different era' as the devastation in industries from oil to services roils markets, hedge fund manager Crispin Odey cautioned his investors. 'This is not like 2008-9, nor 2001-2, nor even 1989-92,' Odey wrote in a letter to clients seen by Bloomberg. 'The fall in global gross national product for this year will echo 1931-2.' The warning follows a 21% gain in his flagship Odey European Inc. fund in March, the biggest monthly increase in 11 years, according to the letter....The services industry faces defaulted customers and no revenues for months as the spread of the deadly coronavirus continues to lock-down countries across continents. The outbreak's impact was exacerbated by the oil war, Odey wrote. The money manager, who has long been a vocal critic of central banks and government policies, also turned his attention to decisions by some of Britain's biggest lenders to cancel dividend payouts. 'The idea that shareholders should be sacrificed to allow banks to make unprofitable loans to the private sector to help them through a difficult period shows just why governments have no idea how to incentivize the right behavior to get the right outcome,' Odey wrote."

Rand Paul says he has recovered from COVID-19 and is volunteering at a hospital -Kentucky.com
"Wearing a smile, a beard and a doctor's smock, Kentucky U.S. Sen Rand Paul posted on his Twitter page that he no longer has the coronavirus and is volunteering at a Bowling Green hospital. 'I appreciate all the best wishes I have received. I have been retested and I am negative.,' Paul said. 'I have started volunteering at a local hospital to assist those in my community who are in need of medical help, including coronavirus patients. Together we will overcome this!' Paul, a Bowling Green Republican and an ophthalmologist, announced March 22 that he tested positive for COVID-19. His office said then he was asymptomatic and was tested out of an abundance of caution due to his extensive travel and event schedule. Paul, 57, said he was not aware of direct contact with anyone infected. Paul attended a fundraiser for the Speed Art Museum in Louisville on March 7, which was attended by a woman who later tested positive for COVID-19....Paul was the first U.S. Senator to test positive for COVID-19. His lung was damaged after a 2017 assault by a neighbor."

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4.8.20 - Gold is Cheap; Prices Could Hit $5,000

Gold last traded at $1,684 an ounce. Silver at $15.23 an ounce.

NEWS SUMMARY: Precious metal prices consolidated recent gains Wednesday on a firmer dollar. U.S. stocks rose after Bernie Sanders announced he is dropping out of the presidential race.

Gold is cheap; prices to hit $5,000 in medium-term -Economist/Kitco
"Gold prices could climb to $5,000 in a few years, this according to John Butler, author of 'The Golden Revolution.' Butler attributed this price growth to the longevity of loose monetary and fiscal policies that will come as a result of COVID-19, as well as gold's historical performance during periods of declining economic growth. 'Based on the historical pattern of the 1970s, and stagflation, and other times these sorts of things have come about, I think gold is going to rise, by orders of magnitude,' Butler told Bilal Hafeez on the Macro Hive podcast. 'I think it is perfectly realistic to see gold closer to $5,000 than where it is today in a few years' time.' On the lasting effects that the pandemic will leave on the economy, Butler said that policy reforms are here to stay...As Milton Friedman said decades ago, 'there is nothing more permanent than a temporary emergency government program.'.... Although gold has already hit historically high valuations, Butler said that simply looking at the price in nominal terms may not give the full picture. 'You have to ask yourself the question 'is the nominal price of gold really that meaningful?' I'm not sure it is, because if you look at gold deflated by the CPI, or a stock market index deflated by the CPI, or for that matter a credit index deflated by the CPI, and you start comparing gold to these other traditional stores of value, actually, gold arguably looks cheap,' he said."

CNBC Greed takes over fear in the stock market, but don't be lured into this short-lived rally -Marketwatch
"In short order, greed in the stock market has mostly taken over fear after reports of slowing new coronavirus cases in New York and Europe. Is it prudent to chase the rally? The answer is 'no' without knowing where you belong in the protection band. The best way to analyze the stock market is through multiple time frames....Charts show that 60% of the rally is driven by a short-squeeze. In a short-squeeze, short-sellers feel compelled to buy to cover. This is artificial buying, and sooner or later it exhausts itself....There is about $6 trillion worth of monetary and fiscal stimulus. In the short term that is helpful to the stock market. Are there no consequences in the long term of printing and borrowing money? Investors have said there was no warning of the coronavirus. That's untrue. On Jan. 22, The Arora Report's call was that the coronavirus could cause a drop in the market. After finding that investors continued to buy stocks, I wrote on Jan. 30 that arrogance and greed among momentum investors 'may prove to be dangerous for investors.' Other than a potential cure, the course of the stock market rally will depend on the behavior of naked investors."

Stop the panic. Don't let the coronavirus win. -USA Today
"In response to the coronavirus pandemic, democratic governments across the world have implemented unprecedented peacetime lockdowns. One California city is even using night vision equipped drones to enforce it. A city in Washington encourages citizens to snitch on those who violate the 'stay home' order. Let's pause a moment to consider the serious ramifications of what we are doing. To combat a virus, some state and local governments have ordered everyone, including perfectly healthy people, to stay home for an undefined period of time. Travel has been curtailed. Americans abroad (like me) are stuck, not knowing when we can return home. The consequences of such draconian measures are potentially devastating and irreversible. With little to no public input, we eagerly have given up our basic rights, decided that economic health is entirely subservient to public health, and radically altered how our society functions....Mild or asymptomatic cases are undercounted, artificially inflating the case-fatality rate. The best data we have comes from South Korea, which screened nearly 400,000 people. That country's case-fatality rate is 1.7%. In Germany, it's 1.3%....Second, U.S. critical care infrastructure is vast. The U.S. has 34.2 critical care (ICU) beds per 100,000 people - the highest in the world - compared to 12.5 in Italy (and 29.2 in Germany)....Third, infectious disease models, which attempt to predict how widespread and how deadly COVID-19 will be, vary considerably....But we also must consider the unintended consequences of our actions. James Bullard, the president of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, predicted that we are facing an unemployment rate of 30% and an unprecedented drop in GDP of 50%. Those numbers are worse than what we experienced during the Great Depression."

Government and Businesses Turn Attention to Eventual Reopening of $22 Trillion U.S. Economy -Wall Street Journal
"Government officials and business leaders are turning their attention to a looming challenge in the fight against the new coronavirus pandemic: Reopening a $22 trillion U.S. economy that has been shut down like never before. With some preliminary signs that infections from the virus are slowing, the whole nation is hopeful to get back to business as soon as possible. But a host of questions arise: Under what conditions should people be allowed back to work and stay-at-home orders be lifted?....A sharp reduction in new infections is a critical first step, but health experts say other steps will be needed to prevent another devastating outbreak that shuts the economy down all over again. 'It isn't like a light switch on and off,' said Anthony Fauci, a member of President Trump's task force on the pandemic. 'It's a gradual pulling back on certain of the restrictions to try and get society a bit back to normal.' Dr. Fauci said a first condition is a steep drop in the number of cases....Mr. Trump said Saturday that he is considering a second coronavirus task force focused on reopening the country. The administration's current social distancing guidelines run through April....Roughly one out of every 300 people in the country is now being tested, based on federal data, compared to about one out of every 100 people in Germany. Testing is hampered by delays and shortages that limit who can get tested. It is unlikely that the problems will be resolved by the end of April, according to one person familiar with the planning."

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4.7.20 - COVID-19 Being Used in The War on Cash

Gold last traded at $1,679 an ounce. Silver at $15.38 an ounce.

NEWS SUMMARY: Precious metal prices eased Tuesday after reaching 7-year highs on safe-haven buying. U.S. stocks rose for a second day as investors grew more optimistic about a slowdown in new coronavirus cases.

Gold and silver about to undergo a major rally -CNBC
"Gold and silver each have tremendously bullish technical setups that cannot go ignored. Furthermore, there are a number of fundamental tailwinds to help bring higher prices. The Federal Reserve has cut rates to zero and unleashed a massive QE-infinity asset purchase program. They are not alone, as central banks around the world have done much of the same. On top of that, Washington passed its third fiscal bill, a historic $2.2 trillion measure. The world has known easy money for more than a decade, but not to this scale. The result of such will almost certainly bring rampant inflation later this year (bullish gold and commodities). With the global economy contracting, currencies around the world all devalued at the same time, and U.S Treasury yields hitting record lows, this reinvigorates not only safe-haven characteristics for gold but its reserve currency characteristics....If you look back to 2008, during the great financial crisis, gold lost 34% from its peak before bottoming and silver 60%. Each bottomed in October 2008 upon the Federal Reserve launching QE1 and Washington passing TARP shortly thereafter. The rallies that ensued were historic. At their heights in 2011, gold nearly tripled and silver rallied almost 500%....The late week rally has gold on the brink of a breakout, one that needs silver to join the party...This aligns a needed close above $15 in silver to not only break out of the bull-flag pattern but regain the 2001 trend line and fuel a massively bullish rally in gold, one that we would expect silver to join."

This Is What Happens After We Pass The Virus Peak -JPMorgan/Zero Hedge
"Yesterday, when giving an update on the global coronavirus infection curve, and highlighting where various nations currently reside on the curve, we said what has become conventional wisdom, namely that 'with every passing day, the world - most of which is currently on lock down - gets closer to the infection inflection point, and as the updated JP Morgan 'corona curve' chart shows, all the nations that were in the exponential rise phase (acceleration), are now moving into the stage of infection growth rate slowdown (accumulation), suggesting that a peak for most countries is now just a matter of time, at which point the number of new cases will start slowing down aggressively. This means that while US cases continue to soar, the light at the end of the tunnel is now visible."

infection curve

"....The bank's MW Kim writes that the first apex is just the beginning, and then - as China is learning now as it reports the most new cases in a month. So what's really going on? First let's do the good news, which as JPM's MW Kim notes, have to do with the slowdown in global infections which grew 62% w/w to 1,275,542, while infection growth momentum has slowed compared to ~95% w/w ten days ago....Now, the not so good news: MW Kim cautions that his findings on COVID-19 so far include (1) the lack of a vaccine makes it difficult to clear the virus; (2) social distancing is an expensive strategy in terms of economic/ social cost perspective; (3) it may perhaps prove challenging to build popular acceptance of stricter social distancing for more than a month. Therefore, and this is the key part, JPMorgan...'Cannot rule out the possibility that global infection curves propagate secondary waves, shaped similar to seismic aftershocks until a vaccine is broadly available.'"

COVID-19 Is Being Used To Scare You Away From Using Cash -Zero Hedge
"Cash has been the target of the banking and financial elites for years. Now, the coronavirus pandemic is being used to frighten the masses into accepting a cashless society. That would mean the death of what's left of our free society. CBS News, CNN, and other mainstream outlets are fearmongering again. Alarmism is nothing new in the media world, but this time, it's not about triggering panic buying or even pushing a political agenda. The war on cash is about imposing a new meta-narrative. As economist Joseph Salerno explains, the cashless society forces all payments to be made through the financial system. It doesn't end with monopoly control over transactions, though. Being bound to computers for transactions kicks the door wide open to hardcore surveillance of personal activity and location data. Being eternally on the grid means relentless taxation and negative interest rates, which the Federal Reserve is already gearing up for. None of this bothers the well-heeled boosters of a cashless society or their lackeys in the media. They want Americans reading about the threat of coronavirus cooties on their cash, which is absurd. Germs, of course, can loiter all over credit and debit cards, smartphones, ATMs, and every other cash alternative device."

Passover, Easter and Ramadan Become Virtual Holidays of Renewal -Bloomberg
"As Jews, Muslims and Christians enter one of the holiest times of the year, with Easter, Ramadan and Passover all celebrated this month, leaders of these religions with ancient roots find themselves giving thanks to the internet. With roughly half the world locked down, keeping the holidays communal will be a struggle....With mosques in most of the world adhering to bans on large gatherings, even conservative imams are finding ways to stream prayers and sermons, she said. At the epicenter of the disease in the U.S., viewers of Sunday masses on the website of the Archdiocese of New York went from 600 at the start of the epidemic to 26,000. More are expected on Easter, a spokesman said....Religious leaders say the pandemic, however painfully, has breathed fresh meaning into these holidays, all rooted in hardship and renewal. 'The coronavirus reminds us that man's greatest enemy is death,' said Robert Jeffress, one of the U.S.'s most influential evangelical pastors as head of the First Baptist Church in Dallas. 'And next Sunday I will be reminding our congregation of the words of Jesus in John 11:25: 'I am the resurrection and the life. He who believes in me, though he dies, will live again.'"

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4.6.20 - The High Cost of Low Interest Rates -WSJ

Gold last traded at $1,703 an ounce. Silver at $15.24 an ounce.

NEWS SUMMARY: Precious metal prices rose sharply Monday on safe haven buying and a flat dollar. U.S. stocks opened higher following a sharp sell-off last week amid signs of stabilization in global coronavirus hospital cases.

Gold rises over 1% as coronavirus hits global economies -CNBC
"Gold prices jumped 1.5% to a more than three-week high on Monday as worries over a global economic slowdown caused by the coronavirus pandemic drove investors to the safe-haven metal. 'The virus's impact on the global economy and the unprecedented amount of stimulus going through the veins of the financial system should keep supporting gold,' OANDA analyst Craig Erlam said. 'Gold seems to have its eye on $1,700 per ounce and I wouldn't be surprised to see it push higher.' The pandemic has infected more than a million people, killed over 68,000 and prompted countries to extend lockdowns to curb its spread, paralyzing large swathes of the global economy....'From a long-term standpoint, gold will still remain the preferred asset as the environment of low interest rates and virus-induced global slowdown would support a prolonged rally,' said Sugandha Sachdeva, vice-president, metals, energy and currency research at Religare Broking Ltd."

central banks The High Cost of Low Interest Rates -Grant/Wall Street Journal
"It took a viral invasion to unmask the weakness of American finance. Distortion in the cost of credit is the not-so-remote cause of the raging fires at which the Federal Reserve continues to train its gushing liquidity hoses. But the firemen are also the arsonists. It was the Fed's suppression of borrowing costs, and its predictable willingness to cut short Wall Street's occasional selling squalls, that compromised the U.S. economy's financial integrity....Perhaps never before has corporate America carried more low-grade debt in relation to its earning power than it does today. And rarely have equity valuations topped the ones quoted only weeks ago. Interest rates are the critical prices that measure investment risk and set the present value of estimated future cash flows. The lower the rates, other things being equal, the higher the prices of stocks, bonds and real estate - and the greater the risk of holding those richly priced assets....The Fed commandeered investment values into the government's service. It seeded bull markets in the public interest. But investment valuations don't exist to serve a public-policy agenda. Their purpose is to allocate capital. Distort those values and you waste not only money but also time - human heartbeats....In a bubble, performance is the name of the investment game. Over the past 10 years, skeptics of our debt-financed prosperity have had to fall in line....Negative nominal bond yields are a 4,000-year first, according to Sidney Homer's 'A History of Interest Rates'...Deceived by ultralow interest rates, Americans borrow and lend in the kind of false economy that candidate Donald Trump properly condemned in 2016. Covid-19 will sooner or later beat a retreat. For the sake of honest prices and true values, it would be well if the central bankers did the same."

Forget about returning to jobs as usual after coronavirus -New York Post
"In the last two weeks, new applications for unemployment benefits have reached an incredible 9.9 million. That's 6 percent of the entire workforce. That's about as many job losses as there were in the entire 2008-2009 ­recession....But more than the immediate pain, this crisis is likely to reshape the economy permanently. In good times, when business is profitable and getting more so, many bosses avoid making hard choices. Inefficiencies are ignored, new labor-saving technology is not installed, under-performing employees are tolerated. But when the bad times inevitably come, suddenly executives have no choice but to run the tightest ships possible and labor costs are usually one of the easiest variables to control. And those lost jobs don't come right back after the economy once again turns up....Some jobs are just not going to come back. Most restaurants in the country are closed right now, at least for in-house dining. A fair number in all likelihood will never reopen....We live in economically revolutionary times with the ongoing digitalization of the world. Some of the expediencies that have been resorted to in the pandemic, such as increased working from home and teleconferencing, may well turn out to be simply a better way to do things. That will have consequences. If, for instance, a significant portion of the working population - and their bosses, of course - find they can work just as well from home, they are likely to increase doing so. That, in the long run, will mean fewer jobs for transportation workers as the volume of commuters declines....On the plus side, however, Americans today are far richer than they were, say, in the 1930s, and a far higher percentage of families have substantial financial assets and credit lines to see them through the crisis."

An even bigger war: The one against expanding government -Ponte/WND
"Our expanding battle against the COVID-19 coronavirus conceals a bigger war: the imperial assault by politicians to wrest power from the people and permanently expand the government. A major weapon used against us in this war, as syndicated radio talk-show hosts Armstrong and Getty mentioned days ago, is what psychologists and brainwashers call an 'availability cascade,' a self-reinforcing cycle of repeated claims designed to alter society's collective beliefs by replacing skepticism with irrational certitude and emotional acquiescence. This technique to control us by stampeding the 'herd' mentality in our heads with endless repetition (i.e., 'availability') has been used by ideologues to create conformity of thought on such issues as global warming and gun control. One sign that propagandists are attacking your brain with an 'availability cascade' is the pretense that their position is supported by 'the experts' and/or by the overwhelming majority of your fellow citizens. Their position is also depicted as a dire emergency - something that you should react to with fear, even panic....Politicians have long invoked or created emergencies to increase their power....'The people never give up their liberties, but under some delusion,' said British statesman Edmund Burke. 'The whole aim of practical politics,' wrote journalist H.L. Mencken, 'is to keep the populace alarmed and hence clamorous to be led to safety "¦ by menacing it with an endless series of hobgoblins. "¦' 'You never want a serious crisis to go to waste,' said Rahm Emanuel, the chief of staff for President Barack Obama, in 2008. 'Crisis provides the opportunity for us to do things that you could not do before.'....Government may have valid reasons for martial law powers to fight the coronavirus, or to free jailed violent criminals, or to close gun stores and churches while keeping liquor and marijuana stores open as 'essential' services, or for tripling government spending. But power-grabbing government policies that could become permanent are not being rationally debated; they are simply imposed by authority and justified by fear of a killer disease. Will freedom and limited government ever return after this plague?"

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4.3.20 - Gold Glitters as Crisis Intensifies

Gold last traded at $1,646 an ounce. Silver at $14.49 an ounce.

NEWS SUMMARY: Precious metal prices rose Friday on safe-haven buying despite a firmer dollar. U.S. stocks fell after March job data was the worst since the last financial crisis.

Gold Glitters as Coronavirus Crisis Intensifies -Yahoo Finance
"The aggravation of coronavirus pandemic with each passing day has left investors scurrying for safe-haven assets as they remain apprehensive regarding the recovery of global economic growth and its consequent impact on stock markets. This, in turn, has triggered a demand for gold, which is considered as a key investment option during times of financial turbulence....Buying pressure on gold is likely to remain robust with investors focusing on precious metals as a store of wealth and hedge against market turmoil at least for the next few months. The present scenario of gold price soaring despite a surge in U.S. dollar index has left several economists and financial experts perplexed. Usually, a strong U.S. dollar weakens demand for other dollar-denominated gold bullion. However, the northbound movement of both safe-haven assets highlights the impact of coronavirus on investor confidence."

the end When Bulls Are This Over-Anxious To Catch The Rocketship Higher, The Bottom's Not Close -Smith/Zero Hedge
"The classic Bull Market reason to get extremely bullish is, yes, bearish sentiment: sentiment is terrible, and bearish sentiment is the surefire marker of a stock market bottom. The more bearish the sentiment, the more reasons to get bullish and start buying with abandon....Since only those of us with gray hair have actually lived through a real Bear Market, younger participants cannot imagine sentiment is bearish because conditions are bearish. The last real Bear Market was in the 1970s and early 1980s, about years ago. By 'real' I mean deep, enduring and pervasive. Each of the recessions / Bear Markets since 1982 have been relatively brief....A real Bear Market is different. It's systemic, i.e. it can't be reversed with 'the Fed has our back' tricks; it's pervasive, i.e. it affects every sector of the economy, and because it's systemic, it's enduring - it doesn't end in a quarter or two, or even a year or two. Real Bear Markets end not when sentiment gets extremely bearish, but when all the mal-investments, inefficiencies, excesses and institutionalized skims/scams are squeezed out of the system....An abundance of Bulls over-anxious to 'buy the dip' to catch the rocketship higher is not evidence of a bottom, it's evidence of a top. At the bottoms of real Bear Markets, few are anxious to buy the dip because sentiment is bearish....Everyone with any position in today's market will be able to say they lived through a real Bear Market. The trick is to survive the bullish echo chamber and have some capital left to deploy when all the bulls so anxious to buy the dip will have vanished."

March Job Losses Signal Bigger Collapse -Wall Street Journal
"Employers shed 701,000 jobs in March, the start of a labor-market collapse that could push the U.S. unemployment rate to record highs. The unemployment rate for March rose to 4.4% from 3.5% in February. It was the largest one-month increase in the rate since January 1975. The data doesn't yet fully reflect the millions of unemployment-insurance claims individuals filed in the last two weeks of March due to the coronavirus pandemic....The near shutdown of swaths of the U.S. economy due to the new coronavirus pandemic - from corner restaurants to manufacturing plants to international tourism - is inflicting damage on the labor market that economists say dwarfs the most significant economic downturns of the post-World War II era. And it is playing out in a matter of weeks, rather than years....The nonpartisan Congressional Budget Office said Thursday that the unemployment rate would exceed 10% in the second quarter....'There's no comparison to this shock,' said Gregory Daco, Oxford's chief U.S. economist. 'The sudden drop in economic activity is like what you'd see in an area after a natural disaster or a terrorist attack, but it's occurring across the entire country.'....Beth Ann Bovino, S&P Global's chief U.S. economist, projects 17 million jobs will be shed in the coming months and the unemployment rate will touch 13.5%. She expects it will take the economy until late 2022 to recover those lost jobs, and, given population growth, the unemployment rate won't return to recent lows until 2023."

COVID-19: A Time to Make Substantive Life Changes -Conley/Next Avenue
"What if the world is meant to take a 'gap year' as a result of the coronavirus?...First off, let's acknowledge that many of us are now working even harder from home, whether it's due to the industry we're in or the difficult fate our companies are facing. But many others are feeling idle and confused. If you're one of them, how could you use this global timeout as an opportunity to make some substantive life changes? During this unusual time, some of us may be getting an early glimpse into what our retirement might look like....Here are three questions that might help you address these issues during the pandemic, and bring back a deeper sense of meaning in your life: 1. What's something that gives me a sense of purpose? Is it a political or social issue, your children's or grandchildren's education, your thriving religious community, art, service, entrepreneurship?....2. How can I connect with people even though I can't see them in person? Make a practice of writing a daily list of three people you care about but haven't talked with in a while (from your past and present). Reach out to them by email, phone or video call. Re-establish a connection....3. Who can be my accountability partner to help create more structure in my life? Do you have a friend who, like you, also wants to lose 10 pounds or cut down on alcohol or break the habit of taking sleeping pills at night? Call this crisis what you will - a gap year, unexpected retirement or a momentary pause. It may also be an opportunity in disguise."

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4.2.20 - China Asserts Global Leadership Claim

Gold last traded at $1,641 an ounce. Silver at $14.62 an ounce.

NEWS SUMMARY: Precious metal prices rose sharply Thursday following record high U.S. jobless data. U.S. stocks shrugged off downbeat employment while focusing on expectations Saudi Arabia and Russia will ease oil market pressures.

Investors should have up to 10% in this 'hedge against the unexpected' says 'Godfather' of gold -CNBC
"George Milling-Stanley has sometimes been referred to as the 'Godfather' of the gold business. While at the World Gold Council, he was among a small group that helped create the SPDR Gold Trust in 2004, now the world's largest gold exchange-traded fund with over $50 billion in assets. He is now chief gold strategist at State Street Global Advisors. CNBC: What do you think will happen with gold prices in the next few months? Milling-Stanley: I am expecting gold to continue to make strides. Gold jewelry demand may drop, but I am expecting a large increase in investment. This is what happened in 2008: Jewelry demand dropped but gold investment increased. If you look at flows into GLD, we saw significant inflows - just shy of $1 billion in the last week. We have had $3.8 billion in inflows year to date. Coronavirus is going to continue to be a concern. Brexit is still an issue. There are problems in the Korean peninsula. Investors have shifted from, 'Is there going to be a bear market' to 'How long will the bear market last?' All of this is positive for gold. CNBC: The Federal Reserve is again expanding its quantitative easing program. Does this have any impact on gold pricing? Milling-Stanley: It likely will. When the Fed began its QE program in 2008, the Fed balance sheet went up. Gold went up 8% a year on average during that period from December 2008 to October 2014. CNBC: In the first few weeks of March, gold dropped about 15% along with the stock market. What was going on there? Milling-Stanley: Gold did what it was supposed to do in this sort of environment. It came to the aid of investors when other investments were going south. In order to meet margin calls, gold was there to be sold, and it was indeed sold. This happened in 2009 and in 2002. CNBC: And yet, gold bounced back again in the second half of March. Milling-Stanley Yes. Gold was sold, and then having done its job investors tend to buy it back again, so gold tends to recover. CNBC: What part of an investment portfolio should gold be? Milling-Stanley: Our research indicates anywhere from 2% to 10%, depending on your risk tolerance and liquidity needs."

China China Asserts Claim to Global Leadership -Wall Street Journal
"China, the country where the virus first appeared and claimed its first several thousand lives, is now using the global spread of the disease to bolster an increasing vocal, assertive bid for global leadership that is exacerbating a yearslong conflict with the U.S. Combined with deliveries of essential goods, this public-relations push has enabled China to stake a claim to a void on the global stage left by an inward-looking America - while also helping Chinese leaders distract attention at home from criticism they mishandled the early stages of the outbreak. Over a two-week period in March, Chinese government agencies, companies and charities donated more than 26 million face masks, 2.3 million testing kits and other supplies to 89 countries, according to a review of state media reports and government and company statements....Pushing beyond material aid, China's government has sent experts and teleconferenced guidance to medical staff in countries across Europe and Asia, in an international role similar to the one the U.S. played during the 2014 Ebola epidemic...'The United States is not offering leadership. Europe doesn't exist"¦.For the first time in decades, West is lost,' said Francesco Sisci, an Italian Sinologist and columnist for the Catholic newspaper Settimana News. 'In this vacuum, China's offering an example. They are there, and they are helpful.'"

Fed Takes on Role of World's Central Bank by Pumping Out Dollars -Yahoo Finance
"The Federal Reserve is acting as central banker to the world by seeking to provide the global financial system with the dollar liquidity it needs to avoid seizing up. In its latest measure to combat the economic fallout from the coronarvirus pandemic, the Fed said Tuesday it was establishing a temporary repurchase agreement facility to allow foreign central banks to swap any Treasury securities they hold for cash. That's yet another step beyond the actions it took in the 2008 financial crisis....Emerging-market borrowers are especially at risk. Encouraged by low U.S. interest rates, they've loaded up on a dollar-denominated debt in recent years. They now face a squeeze as their exports plummet due to economic shutdowns worldwide to combat the coronavirus contagion. A significantly stronger dollar can also hurt the U.S. by tightening financial conditions and making American exports more expensive on world markets....The Fed is having to take on the mantle of world central banker because of the dollar's dominant role in the world economy and the critical importance of the Treasury debt market to the global financial system."

Feed the soul: In chaotic times, gardening becomes therapy -Associated Press
"As spring's arrival in the Northern Hemisphere coincides with government stay-at-home orders, the itch to get outside has turned backyard gardens into a getaway for the mind in chaotic times. Gardeners who already know that working with soil is a way to connect with nature say it helps take away their worries, at least temporarily. 'I love to see things grow,' Lindsay Waldrop said. 'It's incredibly therapeutic.' Now more than ever. Waldrop, a resident of Anaheim, California, has an anxiety disorder. Exercise is supposed to help, but her new job as a college biology professor had prevented her from getting into a routine. Her grandfather, who introduced her to gardening by showing her how to plant seeds, died about a year ago. 'Sometimes I just like to sit and dig holes in the quiet with my own thoughts,' she said. 'Outside, it takes my mind off. It gives something for my hands to do. It gives you a separate problem to think about than whatever else is going on. It gets you off of social media.'"

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4.1.20 - Recession: A Marathon, Not a Sprint

Gold last traded at $1,601 an ounce. Silver at $14.03 an ounce.

NEWS SUMMARY: Precious metal prices rose Wednesday on safe-haven buying despite a firmer dollar. U.S. stocks fell after President Trump issued a stark new warning on the spread of the coronavirus in the U.S.

Gold price heading to new highs, beating copper, oil and equities -Bloomberg Intelligence/Kitco
"Gold remains the commodity to own, and investors should expect to see prices hit new all-time highs driven by unprecedented monetary stimulus and deficit spending, according to one market analyst. In a report Tuesday, Mike McGlone, senior market analyst at Bloomberg Intelligence, said that the price action in the gold market continues to resemble what happened during the 2008 financial crisis. Although gold prices suffered from a more than 20% decline in the midst of the crisis, prices quickly recovered and within three years reached an all-time high at $1,900 an ounce. 'With base rates at zero or negative, and the Federal Reserve embarking on seemingly unlimited monetary stimulus akin to 2008, we see gold extending its $1,900-an-ounce peak as the next in a stair-step recovery process,' McGlone said in the report. 'If following the script from the 2008-09 financial crisis, the term 'recovery' portends new highs for gold. About $1,000 was the initial threshold then. In today's climate, it's comparable to $1,900.'....McGlone said that the yellow metal will be the asset to own as the spreading coronavirus pushes the global economy into a sharp recession. He added that the precious metal will outperform both oil and base metals....U.S. equity market is seeing its worst quarterly performance since 2008 but McGlone said that this could be just the start."

bear market Bear Market/Recession: A Marathon, Not A Sprint -Calhoun/Alhambra Partners
"Stocks rose last week, a breathtaking, nearly 20% run off the recent lows before a pullback Friday trimmed the gain for the week to about 11%...This is what bear market rallies look like. They come out of nowhere, they run much further than anyone thinks they should and, more than anything, they engender hope; hope that the bear is finally over...False dawns are the norm, not the exception. In the last two bear markets, there were numerous, breathtaking stock market rallies that ultimately proved to be nothing more than selling opportunities before new lows. In the 2001 - 2002 bear market, there were three rallies of more than 15% and two others that ran to nearly 10%. The S&P 500 didn't make its final bear market low until October 9th, 2002 at 776.76...That bear market spanned over 2 years and by the end, nobody wanted stocks. In the 2008/09 bear market there were two big rallies similar to last week's. We didn't make the final low until March 9th, 2009. That bear market was fairly short compared to the 2001/2 bear and I think the memory of that one is influencing how investors are thinking of this one...I think it makes a lot more sense to start thinking in terms of the 2001/2 bear. This is not going to end quickly and it is going to be painful....Meanwhile, the economy continues to deteriorate at a rapid pace. One thing we should all learn from this is how interconnected our economy is. Thinking you can shut it down and restart it without significant, lasting damage is fanciful....In the last two recessions, the S&P 500 fell about 50% at the lows. This recession will be worse than either of those. Why wouldn't we expect stocks to fall at least that far again?...Right now, the only things in an uptrend are Treasuries and gold....I expect this recession and bear market to be a marathon, not a sprint. Last week's rally was nice but unlikely to signal anything other than noise."

An FDA Breakthrough on Treatment -Editors/Wall Street Journal
"The Food and Drug Administration on Sunday green-lighted two malaria medicines that have shown some promise treating the novel coronavirus, and the emergency approvals couldn't come soon enough. Expanding their use could bring quicker relief to patients and hospitals while allowing scientists to better assess their efficacy. The malaria drugs hydroxychloroquine (HC) and chloroquine have been around for more than five decades, so their safety is well documented. New evidence suggests that they could also help fight the novel coronavirus. Hydroxychloroquine nowadays is often prescribed for the autoimmune conditions lupus and rheumatoid arthritis that result from the body's immune system attacking its own cells. Scientists have also documented an overreactive immune response in severely ill coronavirus patients. Notably, a study in France of 80 coronavirus patients given HC and azithromycin, an antibiotic for upper respiratory infections, documented 'a clinical improvement in all but one 86 year-old patient who died, and one 74 year-old patient still in intensive care unit.' Doctors have also reported anecdotal evidence of the malaria drugs' efficacy. More study is needed, and a clinical trial of the two drugs involving 1,100 patients started last week in New York. But the FDA's emergency authorization will let more doctors prescribe the drug outside of clinical trials....The Department of Health and Human Services reported Sunday that Novartis has donated 30 million doses of HC, and Bayer has contributed one million doses of chloroquine to the federal government, which can distribute the drugs to areas with the highest need."

Most Americans Say Coronavirus Outbreak Has Impacted Their Lives -Pew Social Trends
"As the number of confirmed COVID-19 cases continues to rise and schools, workplaces and public gathering spaces across the United States remain closed, a new Pew Research Center survey finds that the coronavirus outbreak is having profound impacts on the personal lives of Americans in a variety of ways. Nearly nine-in-ten U.S. adults say their life has changed at least a little as a result of the COVID-19 outbreak, including 44% who say their life has changed in a major way....How are people adapting their behavior in light of the outbreak? Four-in-ten working-age adults ages 18 to 64 report having worked from home because of coronavirus concerns - a figure that rises to a majority among working-age adults with college degrees and upper-income earners. Still, despite current circumstances, about two-thirds of adults with children under 12 at home say it's been at least somewhat easy for them to handle child care responsibilities. The virus also has impacted Americans' religious behaviors. More than half of all U.S. adults (55%) say they have prayed for an end to the spread of coronavirus. Large majorities of Americans who pray daily (86%) and of U.S. Christians (73%) have taken to prayer during the outbreak - but so have some who say they seldom or never pray and people who say they do not belong to any religion (15% and 24%, respectively)....Four-in-ten regular worshippers appear to have replaced in-person attendance with virtual worship (saying that they have been attending less often but watching online instead)."

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3.31.20 - Will COVID-19 End The Fed?

Gold last traded at $1,604 an ounce. Silver at $14.20 an ounce.

NEWS SUMMARY: Precious metal prices traded mixed Tuesday, ending with the sixth straight quarterly rise, on global economic uncertainty. U.S. stocks swung lower ending the worst quarter in history amid ongoing coronavirus volatility.

The economic and monetary conditions are perfect for gold -Marketwatch
"The Midas metal shows rapidly rising relative performance against the CRB Index as industrial commodities are crashing due to the coronavirus effect. Gold bullion is staying firm, close to a multiyear absolute high. This dynamic has caused bullion to register a relative all-time high compared with the CRB Index. What happened to gold bullion after it registered its previous all-time high relative to the CRB in 2008? It doubled in absolute terms to peak above $1,900 in 2011....The difference with 2008 is that this is a government-mandated recession. The government has to stop the economy in order to stop the coronavirus. It's like turning off the circuit breaker on a whole house and having backup power for part of the house only. Second-quarter GDP growth in the U.S. will be down double digits in the 20%-40% range...With record deficit spending and interest rates at zero, we may be faced with an environment where the Fed will keep interest rates below the level of inflation for some time until the economy normalizes after the outbreak is controlled. This would be the perfect environment for gold bullion."

Fed Will COVID-19 End The Fed? -Paul/Zero Hedge
"September 17, 2019 was a significant day in American economic history. On that day, the New York Federal Reserve began emergency cash infusions into the repurchasing (repo) market....The Fed was taking extraordinary measures to prop up the economy months before anyone in China showed the first symptoms of coronavirus. Now the Fed is using the historic stock market downturn and the (hopefully) temporary closure of businesses in the coronavirus panic to dramatically increase its interventions in the economy. Not only has the Fed increased the amount it is pumping into the repo market, it is purchasing unlimited amounts of Treasury securities and mortgage-backed securities....This month the Fed announced it would start purchasing municipal bonds, thus ensuring the state and local government debt bubble will keep growing for a few more months. The Fed has also created three new loan facilities to provide hundreds of billions of dollars in credit to businesses. Fed Chairman Jerome Powell has stated that the Fed will lend out as much as it takes to revive the economy. The Fed is also reducing interest rates to zero. We likely already have negative real interest rates because of inflation. The Fed's actions may appear to mitigate some of the damage of the coronavirus panic. However, by flooding the economy with new money, expanding asset purchases, and facilitating Congress and the president's spending sprees, the Fed is exacerbating America's long-term economic problems. The Fed is unlikely to end these emergency measures after the government declares it is safe to resume normal life....Eventually the Fed-created consumer, business, and government debt bubbles will explode, leading to a major crisis that will dwarf the current coronavirus shutdown. The silver lining is that this next crisis could finally demolish the Keynesian welfare-warfare state and the fiat money system. The Fed's unprecedented interventions in the marketplace make it more urgent than ever that Congress pass, and President Trump sign, the Audit the Fed bill."

Social-Distancing Guidelines Extended Until End of April -Wall Street Journal
"President Trump on Sunday said he was extending the administration's social-distancing guidelines for another 30 days through the end of April, after saying for days that he was hoping to open up the country in the coming weeks. Mr. Trump, speaking at a news conference in the White House Rose Garden, said the peak of the death rate from the new coronavirus was expected to hit in two weeks. Mr. Trump predicted the country would be on its way to recovery by June 1. 'Nothing would be worse than declaring victory before victory is won,' he said. 'It's very important that everybody strongly follow the guidelines.'... Governors and mayors nationwide have rolled out their own restrictions, shutting schools and many retail businesses....The global death toll quintupled over the past two weeks to 33,881 on Sunday, with more than two-thirds of the fatalities in Europe, according to Johns Hopkins. Deaths reached nearly 10,800 in Italy, which has suffered the most fatalities....Widespread testing is still a long way off and labs now are struggling with supply issues that are further hampering the ability to identify cases. The coronavirus can be spread when people are asymptomatic."

A Coronavirus Great Awakening? - Nicholson/Wall Street Journal
"Could a plague of biblical proportions be America's best hope for religious revival? As the 75th anniversary of the end of World War II approaches, there is reason to think so. Three-quarters of a century has dimmed the memory of that gruesome conflict and its terrible consequences: tens of millions killed, great cities bombed to rubble, Europe and Asia stricken by hunger and poverty....Americans, chastened by the horrors of war, turned to faith in search of truth and meaning. In the late 1940s, Gallup surveys showed more than three-quarters of Americans were members of a house of worship, compared with about half today. Congress added the words 'under God' to the Pledge of Allegiance in 1954. Some would later call this a Third Great Awakening. Today the world faces another moment of cataclysm. Though less devastating than World War II, the pandemic has remade everyday life and wrecked the global economy in a way that feels apocalyptic. The experience is new and disorienting. Life had been deceptively easy until now. Our ancestors' lives, by contrast, were guaranteed to be short and painful. The lucky ones survived birth. The luckier ones made it past childhood. Only in the past 200 years has humanity truly taken off...as Joseph Conrad once put it, we took control of our fate. God became irrelevant....'Sheer grimness of suffering brings men sometimes into a profounder understanding of human destiny,' Cambridge University, British historian Herbert Butterfield wrote. Sometimes 'it is only by a cataclysm,' he continued, 'that man can make his escape from the net which he has taken so much trouble to weave around himself.'....Could a rogue virus lead to a grand creative moment in America's history? Will Americans, shaken by the reality of a risky universe, rediscover the God who proclaimed himself sovereign over every catastrophe?"

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3.30.20 - $3,000 Gold Within 3 Years -Analysts

Gold last traded at $1,638 an ounce. Silver at $14.07 an ounce.

NEWS SUMMARY: Precious metal prices eased Monday on mild profit-taking and a firmer dollar. U.S. stocks rose as investor confidence was lifted by U.S. measures to help contain the coronavirus outbreak.

Gold going to $3,000 as U.S. deficit rises sharply -Wing Capital/Kitco
"Analysts at WingCapital Investments said in a recent commentary on Seeking Alpha that prices have remained in their bullish uptrend with gold's critical support at its 50-week moving average. While many analysts are bullish on gold after the Federal Reserve announced its open-ended quantitative easing program at the start of the week, WingCapital said that it is watching rising U.S. debt compared to GDP. They said this will be a bigger factor on gold compared to the Federal Reserve's unprecedented monetary policy. 'Historically we notice that the level of deficit relative to GDP exhibits even higher correlation than the size of Fed's balance sheet,' they said. 'Specifically, we observe that gold's previous secular bull run ended when deficit / GDP started declining and did not bottom until the ratio's trough in 2016.' In this environment, the analysts said that gold prices could rise to $3,000 over the next three years....'It is without coincidence that gold prices became reinvigorated just as government spending started rising again,' the analysts said. As to how high deficit spending as a percentage of GDP will rise, the analysts said that it could be on par with levels not seen since the Second World War. In the 1940's during the war, debt rose to nearly 30% of GDP."

chart This Market Chaos Is Unlike Anything We've Seen Before. But Remember to Breathe -TIME
"For weeks, I watched the evolving coronavirus crisis the way one observes an avalanche: it looks distant until suddenly it is upon you. I was inclined to take advantage and 'buy the dips.' Then, something snapped: I started selling. I wanted cash. I panicked...U.S. equity indices lost more than $10 trillion. I have been an investor for almost 20 years. Through the bursting of the dotcom bubble, 9/11 and the resulting recession, and then during the massive financial collapse of 2008-2009, I never really got scared. This time, I did....The coronavirus was a nearly unmodelable event. If you exist in moneyland, lack of clarity about what to expect is one of the more toxic ingredients. It can lead investors to try to calculate worst-case scenarios. These are not normal times. There is no recent correlate with a global pandemic halting commerce and upending daily life since the 1918 Spanish flu. The possible range has exploded, with some wondering whether markets have reached a bottom or the bottom is still way down. As each of us contemplates what to do with money right now, it's important to pause, breathe and recognize that there is an unequivocal distinction between what is happening now and every other major financial and economic crisis: governments are acting to spend aggressively with a level of funding and measures that dwarf previous responses to serious crises....Will that prevent markets from falling further as the data rolls in of millions laid off and hundreds of billions of evaporated revenue? Who knows?"

Who got special deals in the stimulus and why -Politico
"In the race to save the economy and pass the largest economic rescue package in American history, Congress still found a way to do some old-fashioned home state favors and reward key special interests....A provision for the FDA to approve 'innovative' sunscreens - which would benefit L'Oreal, which has operations in Kentucky - appeared in the bill, which was steered in the Senate by Majority Leader Mitch McConnell of Kentucky....The gaming industry wasn't left out either: Casinos will be able to tap government loans for disaster assistance....It's clear that special interests and members of Congress aren't letting the pandemic crisis go to waste. The $25 billion allocated in loans and loan guarantees for the airlines will also benefit eligible businesses 'approved to perform inspection, repair, replace, or overhaul services, and ticket agents.'....Consumers wouldn't get a negative credit report if they have an agreement with a lender to delay payments or make partial payments. That was a way to stave off a total ban on negative credit reports during the crisis."

The Moral Meaning of the Plague -Brooks/New York Times
"Life and death can seem completely arbitrary. Religions and philosophies can seem like cruel jokes. The only thing that matters is survival. Without the inspiration of a higher meaning, selfishness takes over. This mind-set is the temptation of the hour - but of course it's wrong. We'll look back on this as one of the most meaningful periods of our lives. Viktor Frankl, writing from the madness of the Holocaust, reminded us that we don't get to choose our difficulties, but we do have the freedom to select our responses. Meaning, he argued, comes from three things: the work we offer in times of crisis, the love we give and our ability to display courage in the face of suffering. The menace may be subhuman or superhuman, but we all have the option of asserting our own dignity, even to the end. It's the way we tie our moment of suffering to a larger narrative of redemption. It's the way we then go out and stubbornly live out that story. The plague today is an invisible monster, but it gives birth to a better world....It's during economic and social depressions that the great organizations of the future are spawned. Already, there's a new energy coming into the world. The paradigmatic image of this crisis is all those online images of people finding ways to sing and dance together across distance....There's a new introspection coming into the world, as well. Everybody I talk to these days seems eager to have deeper conversations and ask more fundamental questions: Are you ready to die? If your lungs filled with fluid a week from Tuesday would you be content with the life you've lived? What would you do if a loved one died? Do you know where your most trusted spiritual and relational resources lie? What role do you play in this crisis? What is the specific way you are situated to serve?....Suffering can be redemptive. We learn more about ourselves in these hard periods. The differences between red and blue don't seem as acute on the gurneys of the E.R., but the inequality in the world seems more obscene when the difference between rich and poor is life or death. So, yes, this is a meaningful moment. And it is this very meaning that will inspire us and hold us together as things get worse. In situations like this, meaning is a vital medication for the soul."

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3.27.20 - That Discomfort You're Feeling Is Grief

Gold last traded at $1,622 an ounce. Silver at $14.53 an ounce.

NEWS SUMMARY: Precious metal prices extended gains Friday on safe-haven buying and a weaker dollar. U.S. stocks resumed their historic decline, capping off another volatile week on Wall Street.

$1.2 Billion Fund Makes the Case for Gold -Barrons
"Matthew McLennan owns gold bullion because the future - now more than ever - is uncertain. 'If we knew what the future held, we'd probably have either all equities or all gold. But to recognize the limits of your knowledge is an important reason to own gold,' says McLennan, co-portfolio manager of the $1.2 billion First Eagle Gold fund....With the Federal Reserve and other central banks slashing interest rates and taking other steps to support markets, the yellow metal surged to levels not seen since early 2013 on Tuesday. The monetary policy response and Congress' $2 trillion stimulus plan 'are the best thing that can happen to gold in the long-term,' co-portfolio manager Thomas Kertsos says...'It's very hard to imagine that we are going to get out of this without inflationary or deflationary consequences, which opens risks and opportunities for the absolute and real price of gold going forward.'....Physical gold is the fund's top holding, setting it apart from other gold mutual funds. Also unique is the managers' silver bullion position, a top-six holding."

coronavirus How the Pandemic Will End -Yong/The Atlantic
"Three months ago, no one knew that SARS-CoV-2 existed. Now the virus has spread to almost every country, infecting at least 446,000 people whom we know about, and many more whom we do not. It has crashed economies and broken health-care systems, filled hospitals and emptied public spaces. It has separated people from their workplaces and their friends. It has disrupted modern society on a scale that most living people have never witnessed. Soon, most everyone in the United States will know someone who has been infected. Like World War II or the 9/11 attacks, this pandemic has already imprinted itself upon the nation's psyche....The testing fiasco was the original sin of America's pandemic failure, the single flaw that undermined every other countermeasure....Basic protective equipment, such as masks, gowns, and gloves, began to run out. Beds will soon follow, as will the ventilators that provide oxygen to patients whose lungs are besieged by the virus....As of last weekend, the nation had 17,000 confirmed cases, but the actual number was probably somewhere between 60,000 and 245,000. Numbers are now starting to rise exponentially: As of Wednesday morning, the official case count was 54,000, and the actual case count is unknown....To avert a worst case scenario, four things need to happen - and quickly. The first and most important is to rapidly produce masks, gloves, and other personal protective equipment. If health-care workers can't stay healthy, the rest of the response will collapse....The second pressing need: a massive rollout of COVID-19 tests....The third need is social distancing. Think of it this way: There are now only two groups of Americans. Group A includes everyone involved in the medical response, whether that's treating patients, running tests, or manufacturing supplies. Group B includes everyone else, and their job is to buy Group A more time....The fourth urgent need: The importance of social distancing must be impressed upon a public who must also be reassured and informed....There are only about 180,000 ventilators in the U.S. and, more pertinently, only enough respiratory therapists and critical-care staff to safely look after 100,000 ventilated patients....There are three possible endgames: one that's very unlikely, one that's very dangerous, and one that's very long. The first is that every nation manages to simultaneously bring the virus to heel, as with the original SARS in 2003....The second is that the virus does what past flu pandemics have done: It burns through the world and leaves behind enough immune survivors that it eventually struggles to find viable hosts....The third scenario is that the world plays a protracted game of whack-a-mole with the virus, stamping out outbreaks here and there until a vaccine can be produced. This is the best option, but also the longest and most complicated....The lessons that America draws from this experience are hard to predict....One could envisage a future in which America learns a different lesson. A communal spirit, ironically born through social distancing, causes people to turn outward, to neighbors both foreign and domestic."

That Discomfort You're Feeling Is Grief -Harvard Business Review
"Some of the Harvard Business Review edit staff met virtually the other day - a screen full of faces in a scene becoming more common everywhere. We talked about the content we're commissioning in this harrowing time of a pandemic and how we can help people. But we also talked about how we were feeling. One colleague mentioned that what she felt was grief. Heads nodded in all the panes. If we can name it, perhaps we can manage it. We turned to David Kessler for ideas on how to do that. Kessler is the world's foremost expert on grief. He co-wrote with Elisabeth Kübler-Ross On Grief and Grieving: Finding the Meaning of Grief through the Five Stages of Loss. His new book adds another stage to the process, Finding Meaning: The Sixth Stage of Grief. Kessler shared his thoughts on why it's important to acknowledge the grief you may be feeling, how to manage it, and how he believes we will find meaning in it. HBR: People are feeling any number of things right now. Is it right to call some of what they're feeling grief? Kessler: Yes, and we're feeling a number of different griefs. We feel the world has changed, and it has. We know this is temporary, but it doesn't feel that way, and we realize things will be different...We are not used to this kind of collective grief in the air....HBR: You said we're feeling more than one kind of grief? Kessler: Yes, we're also feeling anticipatory grief. Anticipatory grief is that feeling we get about what the future holds when we're uncertain. Usually it centers on death. We feel it when someone gets a dire diagnosis or when we have the normal thought that we'll lose a parent someday. Anticipatory grief is also more broadly imagined futures. There is a storm coming....HBR: What can individuals do to manage all this grief? Kessler: Understanding the stages of grief is a start...There's denial, which we say a lot of early on: This virus won't affect us. There's anger: You're making me stay home and taking away my activities. There's bargaining: Okay, if I social distance for two weeks everything will be better, right? There's sadness: I don't know when this will end. And finally there's acceptance. This is happening; I have to figure out how to proceed. Acceptance, as you might imagine, is where the power lies. We find control in acceptance. I can wash my hands. I can keep a safe distance. I can learn how to work virtually....HBR: What do you say to someone who's read all this and is still feeling overwhelmed with grief? Kessler: Keep trying. There is something powerful about naming this as grief. It helps us feel what's inside of us...It's absurd to think we shouldn't feel grief right now. Let yourself feel the grief and keep going."

Campaign 2020: The Show Must Go On -Rove/Wall Street Journal
"The Covid-19 crisis has upended life in America, including the presidential campaign. Both former Vice President Joe Biden and President Trump face new strategic challenges, and the country is watching. As the U.S. rightly turned from primaries to quarantines, Mr. Biden was naturally sidelined. His first move to resist was to convert his home's rec room into a studio, so he can appear on cable-TV shows. It wasn't enough. His speech on Monday was vague and flimsy, marred by a malfunctioning teleprompter and a meandering discourse on the 1940s....Mr. Biden hasn't yet grasped that as the presumptive Democratic nominee, he's already the party's leader. He mistakenly left the drafting of his party's Covid-19 stimulus bill to Nancy Pelosi and Chuck Schumer in Congress....Mr. Biden must also decide soon whether to keep moving left or emphasize that he's a more centrist Democrat. Picking the first course would suggest that he believes victory this fall depends on mobilizing Sen. Bernie Sanders's backers by agreeing with many of the Vermonter's views. Picking the second would indicate that he thinks the key to victory lies with suburbanites who swung to Democrats in 2018, and that he'll get the Bernie vote by being the alternative to Mr. Trump, not the instrument to enact a socialist agenda....The coronavirus crisis presents Mr. Trump with a bigger potential upside, and downside. Americans don't blame presidents for unforeseen emergencies but do judge how they respond. Presidents must not only execute a broad, effective response over time, but also speak to people's concerns and aim for unity....Voters won't hold Mr. Trump responsible for a slowdown right now, but they will react negatively afterward - unless he strikes an optimistic tone and offers a robust package of measures to restore prosperity....Americans are watching the president and Mr. Biden intently, taking the measure of both men. The defining moments of this crisis have yet to come, but when they do, the outcome of the presidential race will hang in the balance."

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3.26.20 - As Hyperinflation Risk Looms, Buy Gold

Gold last traded at $1,652 an ounce. Silver at $14.70 an ounce.

NEWS SUMMARY: Precious metal prices rose on safe-haven buying after jobless claims spiked to a record high. U.S. stocks rose for a third day despite downbeat unemployment data on rising investor hopes.

Coronavirus hyperinflation risk looms, buy gold -Schiff/Fox Business
"The extreme measures taken by the U.S. government and the Federal Reserve to combat the COVID-19 pandemic could push the U.S. into an episode of hyperinflation and boost gold, according to Peter Schiff. The White House and the Senate reached a $2 trillion deal early Wednesday on the third phase of a relief package that extends cash to the individuals, small businesses and corporations that were hit hardest by economic fallout from COVID-19. On top of that, the Fed said earlier this week it would buy unlimited amounts of assets to support market functions and the economy. The central bank has also cut rates to nearly zero to ease lending conditions....'What the Fed is doing is extremely bearish for the U.S. economy,' Schiff, CEO of Westport, Connecticut-based Euro Pacific Capital, told FOX Business. He added that hyperinflation, or extremely high and worsening inflation, is 'very much on the table,' and that a complete destruction of the U.S. currency would be accelerated if the world 'dumps the dollar as a reserve.' Schiff is not alone in suggesting that hyperinflation is a potential consequence of resorting to helicopter money. Deutsche Bank macro strategist Oliver Harvey says that while the policy response to COVID-19 is 'very similar' to the 2008 financial crisis, today's calamity is 'very different.'....For Schiff, the winner is clear: gold. The precious metal's price, he says, should be up 'a lot more' than just the 9.5 percent it has gained since the Fed launched its massive asset purchase program on Monday."

route65 Coronavirus Shock Is Destroying Americans' Retirement Dreams -Bloomberg Quint
"For older people, the coronavirus crisis has been an appalling shock. Many can't travel or see grandchildren. Even buying groceries is a risk. Their life savings are melting as the global economy shuts down and financial markets plummet. The pain may be particularly acute in the U.S., where Americans rely on a retirement system that was broken well before a pandemic dashed it to pieces. Almost half of U.S. households 55 and older have nothing saved for retirement. Many of the rest were already doing worse than earlier waves of retirees. After a 40-year-long shift from traditional pensions to individual 401(k) retirement accounts, Americans' financial security is now defenseless against whatever crisis comes along....The more time Americans spent in the 401(k) system, the less they were managing to save. The prime culprit, researchers concluded, was the Great Recession, which hit the 401(k)-reliant late boomers harder than older cohorts....Now, another economic shock is putting livelihoods and retirement savings in jeopardy. The ultimate damage is impossible to predict, with U.S. stocks more volatile than anytime since the start of the Great Depression....Social Security can be credited with creating the very notion of retirement. For centuries before the program was launched in 1935, only the wealthy could afford to stop working. As the U.S. recovered from the Great Depression and then boomed, a new retirement system for the middle class took root....The losses for retirement savers depend on how exposed they were to stocks."

Coronavirus Is Making Business Leaders Rethink the Rules of Capitalism -Worth
"Fifty years after economist Milton Friedman sternly admonished society that the sole business of business is profit, business is rethinking that adage with support from business schools. Business schools have long embraced the belief that shareholders are the 'owners' of the company and profits should be maximized to benefit them, and have taught accordingly. So it is only fair that business schools, which play the dual role of educating the next generation of business leaders while also undertaking research that informs current corporate decision-making, help design the next chapter of capitalism. The coronavirus crisis brings the issue home: Should well capitalized companies lay off workers (which would benefit shareholders) or should they figure out how to support their workers and society while managing a radically changed world?....There are a growing number of degrees and specializations in corporate sustainability and sustainable finance. These programs include focused-programs like the eight-year-old MBA in Sustainability at Bard College and long-standing dual-degree programs at Yale, Michigan and Duke wherein students can pursue an environmental studies masters and an MBA....Outside of the classroom, sustainability is permeating extra-curricular and co-curricular activities...With business leaders calling for a more responsible capitalism, they will need business schools to train the next generation of leaders in new skills and illuminate the way forward through academic research."

During coronavirus, the free market is coming through when we need it most -Washington Examiner
"This weekend, we received a package at our front door. My mother, in Kansas, found an educational kit for my three daughters on Amazon, purchased it, and had it shipped to our house. Under normal circumstances, that might have been considered merely a nice gesture from a grandmother. However, during our period of social distancing and isolation, it was a gift not just from a caring grandmother who was able to shop from home but also from Amazon, the warehouse workers, and the delivery people who had a role in delivering the gift. I spend most of my time advocating for doctors, inventors, and a free market. Both doctors and inventors are rightfully being celebrated for their role in helping combat this pandemic. But the free market is also coming through when we need it most....Amazon isn't the only company that should be celebrated. Like Amazon, grocery stores aren't being staffed by the military - they are being staffed by the same employees who worked there before the pandemic. They aren't open by order of the government. They are providing a service that we all need, a service that also helps to alleviate panic....These are the stories that we need to remind ourselves of when we come out of this and hear calls for more government....We took the tiger by the tail when we shut down the economic engine. But as tough as figuring out how to let go of the tiger is, it is what comes next that might be the hardest part. There are two ways that this can go. Either the government can take a bigger role in the economy and growth can move at the speed of bipartisanship (there is none right now), or we can rely on entrepreneurs to spring into action, feel out the new normal, and grow the economy. The front line of people helping us now is the same that will bring us out....The economy is stopped, but America is not. In fact, as long as the government stays out of the way and possibly provides some financial assistance, we appear ready to pounce once everything is safe to restart."

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3.25.20 - Get Ready for $2,500 Gold This Summer

Gold last traded at $1,634 an ounce. Silver at $14.64 an ounce.

NEWS SUMMARY: Precious metal prices eased Wednesday following a historic government economic stimulus plan. U.S. stocks rose in anticipation of a coronavirus stimulus deal.

Get ready for $2,500 gold price this summer -B. Riley FBR/Kitco
"Massive gold price revisions are hitting the market this week as analysts estimate the impact of the COVID-19 crisis, with one investment bank upping its Q3 and Q4 gold price forecasts to an impressive $2,500 an ounce. Citing unprecedented fiscal and monetary policy stimulus, B. Riley FBR analysts said on Tuesday that they expect gold to surge to $2,500 an ounce in Q3 and continue to trade at those levels in Q4. 'It has not been our practice to forecast gold price,' wrote B. Riley FBR's analysts. '[But] due to our conviction in rising gold prices, we are meaningfully raising our gold price deck "¦ to $2,500/oz in 3Q20 "¦ and we feel compelled to align our 12-month price targets to this view.' The main driver will not be a potentially deep recession or another major drop in equity markets, but extremely low rates along with 'unprecedented fiscal and monetary stimulus,' the analysts said....'During such a gold price ascent, gold will be the best performing asset class, and gold related equities will be the best performing equity sector,' they wrote."

central banks Federal Stimulus Expansion Will Lead to More Economic Crises -Bonner/Bonner & Partners
"We are in the deflationary stage now"¦ when the bubble pops and asset values are suddenly marked down to where they should have been in the first place. But what comes next? Is that all there is to it? Alas, the answer is simple: No"¦ There's much more to come... The economy"¦ how it reacts to the C virus"¦ and the feds' own response - all are matters of politics...We're not talking about Democrats against Republicans"¦ but about the whole realm in which things are decided not by voluntary win-win compromises, but by the intrusion of the feds in one form or another. We have seen, over the last 20 years, how the feds queered the economy...Fake money and fake interest rates gradually undermined the economy's immune system....In short summary, they created a 'just-in-time' economy, where everyone - from ordinary householders, gig workers, corporate chiefs, and the feds themselves - believed that the supply of money and credit were essentially unlimited....Real money - like real time and real skills and real resources - is not unlimited. And when the limits are passed, bad things begin to happen...First, the feds get more power simply because they are the ones handing out the money. The latest stimulus bill, calls for $2 trillion of giveaways...The little guys will get $1,200 each, or a total of only about $300 billion....Of course, the government has no money. It is already running trillion-dollar deficits. All it can do is print more money - inflate - to pay for these bailouts, giveaways, and stimulus efforts. Inflation then infects everything"¦ and always leads to more government power."

Record $2 Trillion Stimulus Risks Falling Short -Bloomberg
"Shortly after midnight Wednesday, the White House and Democratic lawmakers said they reached agreement on a $2 trillion bill aimed at limiting the economic hit of the outbreak. The Senate may vote later in the day; it would still need to clear the House and be signed by President Donald Trump. Even with a price tag that represents about 10% of the nation's total output, not all Americans who may need direct payments will receive them, and timing remains an issue. The bill - the third phase of coronavirus aid from Congress - was tweaked after House Democrats proposed their own $2.5 trillion version....Further stimulus will be needed in coming days and weeks to further bolster the economy and leaders should begin working on that now, according to Jason Furman, a member of Barack Obama's economic team during the 2008 recession. 'I've never seen Congress move so fast to do something so large. Unfortunately, the problem may be larger and faster,' Furman said....For individuals, the package provides direct payments to lower- and middle-income Americans of $1,200 for each adult, as well as $500 for each child....The payment amount doesn't apply to those making more than $75,000, just above the nation's median household income....Trump indicated the checks would go out by April 6, according to Senate Democratic leader Charles Schumer, but during the prior recession, it took about two months for those to go out."

Finding Community and Cheer at Home -Readers/New York Times
"Many of us are now entering the second, third or fourth week of restrictions on our movements, and it is becoming ever clearer that overcoming this crisis will be a marathon, not a sprint. As we all collectively adjust to our unique situations, we asked New York Times readers to share their ideas for pursuing the traveler's spirit of discovery, curiosity and delight within their new limitations at home. Following are their responses, which have been edited for clarity and length. 'An artistic exercise in patience' - 'As a child, I was taught ink drawing and I rediscovered my love for it...It helped me through a difficult time in life where I felt very anxious about not understanding what's happening around me.' - Andre Williams, Montreal, Canada...'Painting landscapes of where I want to go once the virus is no longer a threat.' -@ameliekurlander, via Instagram...'Support small businesses where you can' - 'For those of you who are able to be on staycation, please consider doing some online shopping at independent stores and ordering take out from independent restaurants.'- Elaine, Atlanta...'Beethoven, via Berlin' - 'The Berlin Philharmonic, for instance, kindly offers concerts on their Digital Concert Hall website free of charge'.- Neo Hung, Hong Kong...'Look to the stars' - 'Download the SkyView app to your phone to view distant constellations, nearby planetary objects and more!' -Caroline Pedro, Seattle....'Take stock. Breathe'. 'Take a daily walk and notice the beauty. Deep breathing before getting up and before going to bed. This will last a long time, but not forever.' -Robin Weintraub, Rochester, New York."

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3.24.20 - Time to Buy the Currency of Last Resort -Goldman Sachs

Gold last traded at $1,665 an ounce. Silver at $14.26 an ounce.

NEWS SUMMARY: Precious metal prices rocketed higher for a second day Tuesday in response to rising Fed-induced inflation fears. U.S. stocks rebounded from three-year lows as investors hoped U.S. lawmakers were close to a stimulus bill agreement to rescue the economy from the damage caused by the coronavirus.

'Time to buy the currency of last resort' -Goldman/CNBC
"Gold prices jumped more than 6% on Tuesday, putting the precious metal on track for its best day in 11 years, and Goldman Sachs believes the Federal Reserve's latest stimulus package will prompt investors to seek out the safe-haven asset and drive prices even higher. 'Time to buy the currency of last resort,' Jeffrey Currie, Goldman Sachs' global head of commodities research, succinctly summed up in a note to clients Monday night. Gold has gained more than 12% in the last two days as the Federal Reserve on Monday pledged unlimited asset purchases to support the markets. Prices are rallying as investors believe gold will be the best alternative as central bank actions lead to currency debasement and possible inflation."

uncertainty Risk, Uncertainty and Coronavirus -Schrager/Wall Street Journal
"The government response to the coronavirus pandemic has seemed chaotic - underreaction one minute, piling on restrictions the next. It has left many wondering whether anyone is weighing the trade-offs. Do heavy-handed measures carry the benefits to justify the considerable costs? The uncomfortable answer: We don't know. The novel coronavirus appears at first to be a problem of risk management. It is a dangerous disease that threatens the lives of our neighbors and loved ones. Our response - increased social distancing, shutting down businesses - is aimed at reducing that risk. But the problem isn't risk so much as uncertainty...The future is unknowable, but risk is measurable. It can be estimated using data, provided similar situations have happened before. Uncertainty, on the other hand, deals with outcomes we can't predict or never saw coming. Risk can be managed. Uncertainty makes it impossible to weigh costs and benefits, such as whether reducing the spread of a virus is worth the cost of an economic shutdown that could last several months. The most responsible course of action is to assume the worst and take the most risk-averse position. Managing uncertainty is expensive: In markets, it means holding cash; in society, it means shutting down....This uncertainty makes it much harder to manage the virus, or to strike a balance between public health and the economy...The goal should be to move from uncertainty to risk, which will take time and data. The way forward is testing as many people as possible - not only people with symptoms....More testing would also help spare the world from future shutdowns if the virus reappears before there is a safe, effective vaccine....Policy makers should throw as much energy as possible into getting accurate data. That would allow the world to assess the real risk of the coronavirus. This may lead us to continue to take drastic action to limit its spread, or it may allow us to temper our response, managing the risk at a much lower cost to both society and the economy."

Armies are mobilizing against the coronavirus -The Economist
"Two weeks ago Xi Jinping, China's president, made a triumphal visit to Wuhan, capital of Hubei province, ravaged by covid-19, to declare that the virus had been 'basically curbed'. His first stop was a hospital built at breakneck speed and run by the People's Liberation Army (PLA). Now armies across the world are temporarily putting down their guns and playing a frontline role in the war against the virus. That will ease the burden on overwhelmed civilians, but it may have far-reaching implications for the forces' military proficiency. In Italy and Spain, where death rates have spiraled upwards in recent weeks, thousands of soldiers have been deployed to quarantined cities to patrol the streets and enforce lockdowns....Many countries are uncomfortable with state-mandated lock downs, enforced by gun-toting soldiers. But they have found other uses for their soldiers. Armed forces are good at mounting big logistical operations at short notice. They have lots of pliant manpower and heavy vehicles, and expertise in moving large amounts of stuff from one place to another. On March 19th Britain, which has thus far taken a laxer approach to the enforcement of social distancing than Italy or France, announced a new 'COVID support force', which will comprise over 20,000 personnel, bolstered with reservists...On March 22nd National Guard (ie, reservist) units in three states - California, New York and Washington - were deployed to perform similar duties. Armed forces are also well placed to help out overloaded health-care systems. For one thing, they often have large stockpiles of vital medical kit. The Pentagon has promised to hand over 5m respirator masks and 2,000 ventilators to civilian authorities....It is understandable that overwhelmed states want to mobilize their armies for policing, logistics and medicine. But armed forces are designed first and foremost for killing people, rather than issuing fines on street corners or delivering food to supermarkets. And covid-19 will affect military preparedness, both directly and indirectly....Troops may be distracted and diverted, but war does not pause for viruses."

The Bright Side: Coronavirus Is Bringing Communities, Couples Closer Together -Study Finds
"It's hard not to feel at least a little down these days. The coronavirus is absolutely dominating the headlines and our lives, and most of the stories aren't exactly positive. If you're looking for a silver lining in all this, a recent survey of 2,000 residents in the United Kingdom has identified a few unexpected benefits of the COVID-19 situation. In this modern age, it's become increasingly common for neighbors and community members to ignore each other and almost never speak. Well, 25% of respondents agree the coronavirus outbreak has led to conversations with neighbors (at a safe distance, of course) who they hardly knew at all before a few weeks ago. Additionally, 64% believe that COVID-19 has brought their community closer together in a variety of ways....30% of respondents have started checking in on their older relatives and 23% are doing the same for neighbors in need. A full third of survey participants have started grocery shopping for neighbors and family members who are unable to leave the house. Meanwhile, other people have donated to a food bank (13%), volunteered for a charity (10%), or decided to patronize a small business instead of a larger chain store (28%)....Besides broader communities, the coronavirus situation has also led to families and partners seeing a whole lot more of each other. While there is, of course, the possibility of getting on one another's nerves, 49% of survey participants believe that self-isolating will bring them closer to their partner. In all, two-thirds say they are seeing their significant other much more than usual due to COVID-19 measures such as working from home, self-isolation, or social distancing."

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3.23.20 - The Worst of the Global Selloff Yet Ahead

Gold last traded at $1,562 an ounce. Silver at $13.17 an ounce.

NEWS SUMMARY: Precious metal prices rose sharply Monday after the Fed announced its unlimited stimulus plan. U.S. stocks tumbled to fresh lows despite the Federal Reserve unveiling additional support for the financial system.

Gold surges 2% after Fed unveils new stimulus plans -Reuters/Yahoo Finance
"Gold prices soared more than 2% on Monday...after the U.S. Federal Reserve mounted aggressive new steps to combat the economic impact from coronavirus outbreak, boosting investors sentiment. The U.S. central bank said it would begin backstopping an unprecedented range of credit for households, small businesses and major employers in an effort to offset the 'severe disruptions' caused by the coronarvirus outbreak. 'The Fed unveiled its biggest cannon seen to date - even bigger than in the great financial crisis,' said Tai Wong, head of base and precious metals derivatives trading at BMO....Major central banks around the world rolled out a wave of fiscal and monetary measures to stem the economic damage from the virus, which has infected more than 300,000 worldwide....'When you're seeing so much wiped off the stock market on a regular basis, the shortfall has to be made up somehow and gold remains the favored option,' OANDA analyst Craig Erlam said in a note....Among other precious metals, silver jumped 1.8% to $12.81 an ounce, on track for its third straight session of gains."

Fed In Unprecedented Move, Fed Unveils Open-Ended QE Including Corporate Bonds -Zero Hedge
"The Fed had a problem: it had already used up half of its entire emergency $700BN QE5 announced last weekend. Which, together with the plunge in stocks, is why at 8am on Monday, just as we expected, The Fed unveiled an unprecedented expansion to its mandate, announcing open-ended QE which also gave it the mandate to buy corporate bonds to unclog the frozen corporate bond market - just one step away from a full Fed nationalization of the market. The Fed will buy Treasuries and agency mortgage-backed securities 'in the amounts needed to support smooth market functioning and effective transmission of monetary policy to broader financial conditions and the economy,' and will also buy agency commercial mortgage-backed securities, according to a statement....Coincidentally, this unprecedented action takes place just hours after real estate billionaire Tom Barrack (and friend of Trump) said the U.S. commercial-mortgage market is on the brink of collapse and predicted a 'domino effect' of catastrophic economic consequences if banks and government don't take prompt action to keep borrowers from defaulting....But in a sign of just how unnerved investors are by the pandemic, the Fed's moves failed to spark anything beyond a brief rally in stocks and corporate bonds Monday...So, do we go full-Einsteinian-madness - repeating the mistakes (that have not worked at all) of Japan and Europe and expect a different result, or is now the time to bite the bullet, peel off the band aid, liquidate what has failed and - at the cost of massive political upheaval - embrace the creative destruction and prepare for a new world?"

The Worst of the Global Selloff Isn't Here Yet -Investors/Analysts/Wall Street Journal
"The most brutal stretch for global markets since the financial crisis likely isn't over yet, say investors and analysts who believe it is too early to assess the possible scale of economic damage from the coronavirus. In just a few weeks, U.S. stocks have lost roughly a third of their value. In recent weeks, investors have even fled assets like U.S. government bonds and gold that typically do well during times of turmoil, underscoring the extent of the panic and the shock to once-robust investor sentiment delivered by the global health emergency. But many analysts and portfolio managers warn that neither those declines nor recent extraordinary actions by the Federal Reserve are likely to signal the end of the market crunch. They note that by historical standards, stocks' declines look modest compared with some prior downturns, given the early indications of how much damage virus-related shutdowns are likely to do to global growth. The S&P 500 is down 32% from its February peak. In comparison, stocks tumbled 57% during the financial crisis and 49% after the dot-com bubble burst in 2000 before beginning to rebound....Analysts at Goldman Sachs Group Inc. said this past week they expect U.S. economic output to tumble 24% in the second quarter, one of the worst readings on record and potentially foretelling a U.S. recession even if growth picks back up in the second half of the year....'Selloffs end when the problem that caused the selloff is under control,' said Michael Kantrowitz, chief investment strategist at BlackRock Investment Institute."

Stuck at Home, Americans Turn to Foster Pets for Companionship -New York Times
"The global coronavirus outbreak has people preparing to spend more time at home over the coming weeks, some who have decided that they don't want to quarantine alone are choosing to foster a pet for companionship. Most Americans are being told to stay out of bars and restaurants, to steer clear of social gatherings, to work from home and to socially distance themselves from one another to avoid the spread of the highly contagious new coronavirus, which has killed more than 9,000 people worldwide. In interviews this week, animal shelters across the nation reported a surge in interest in fostering pets. 'I think it is a combination of feeling lonely and having the time,' Ms. Hansen said. KC Pet Project, a nonprofit animal shelter in Kansas City, Mo., has received 250 requests to foster pets since Monday, according to Tori Fugate, a spokeswoman for the shelter. Usually, getting 10 pets placed in foster homes is a good day for the organization. 'To have that many new people sign up is really a big spike,' she said....A foster relationship helps not only people searching for a friend to adjust to a disorienting new normal; it can also help the pets themselves cope, according to Eileen Hanavan, director of the foster and engagement program at the American Society for the Prevention of Cruelty to Animals. 'A lot of people are facing prolonged periods of time at home and inside,' she said. 'They want companionship and to not feel alone during this unsettling time, and it is benefiting our animals directly.'....'For people that are by themselves, having another heartbeat in the house makes it feel less lonely,' she said. 'It's a win-win.'"

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3.20.20 - Economic Freeze: Get Gold, Silver If You Can

Gold last traded at $1,485 an ounce. Silver at $12.42 an ounce.

NEWS SUMMARY: Precious metal prices rose Friday on bargain-hunting and a weaker dollar. U.S. stocks fell in volatile trading as fresh measures to contain the coronavirus pandemic spooked investors, despite massive interventions by central banks.

Economic freeze is here, get gold, silver if you can and get ready -Rickards/Kitco
"We are potentially entering an 'Ice-9' situation where the entire world may 'freeze' over economically, said Jim Rickards, best-selling author of 'The Road to Ruin' and 'Aftermath: Seven Secrets of Wealth Preservation in the Coming Chaos.' 'If you shut down the New York stock exchange, and I can't sell stocks and get cash, I'm going to sell my money market funds or redeem my money market funds. Then you've got to shut down the money market funds industry, and then people say 'ok, I'll go to the banks or the ATMs,' he said. 'And then you've got to shut down the banks, so the point is, it spreads from exchange to money markets, to brokerage accounts, to banks, and you end up shutting down the entire system.'"

healthcare workers We Need Time to Absorb All This -Noonan/Wall Street Journal
"The screenwriter Lawrence Kasdan once said the films of Akira Kurosawa were distinguished by this dynamic: The villain has arrived while the hero is evolving. The villain is here in the form of an illness. A lot of the heroes of this story are evolving every day into something we'll look back on months and years hence and say, 'Wow, LOOK what she did.' 'What guts that guy showed.' People are going to pull from themselves things they didn't know were there. But now, at this stage in the drama, most of the heroes are also busy absorbing...It's all so big. We are discovering the illness as we experience it. We don't know its secrets, how long it lasts, how long its incubation, whether you can be reinfected. As for the economics: As the month began we had functional full employment. By the time it ends we will not, not at all. In the past week layoffs and let-gos have left state unemployment claim websites crashing. This is not 'normal job disruption'; it is a cascade. The Treasury secretary reportedly said unemployment could hit 20%. Where we are is a hard, bad place, stupid to deny it....A general attitude for difficult times? Trust in God first and always. Talk to him. Every time America's in trouble I remember Adam Smith's words. He wrote there's 'a great deal of ruin in a nation.' Especially a very great and prosperous one with a brilliant system and a creative citizenry. And see this: We are surrounded by nobility....Mike Luckovich had a cartoon this week of the Marines raising the flag on Iwo Jima. Only it wasn't Marines - it was a doctor, a scientist, a nurse and a first responder anchoring Old Glory in this rocky soil... In the next few weeks and months they'll get us through and we should thank them every way possible. That includes everyone who can't work at home, the cops and firefighters, the garbagemen and truckers, the people who stock the shelves and man the counters. A nurse told me Thursday that hospital workers all see themselves as sitting ducks for infection, but no one's calling in sick....I just want to get out and help in some way. Isn't that what you feel? We all just want to pitch in."

Are Americans All-In for a Long Coronavirus War? -Buchanan.org
"'It's a war,' says President Donald Trump of his efforts to contain the coronavirus pandemic, and likening his role to that of 'wartime president.' Some measures already taken do call to mind actions in wartime. Commercial airline flights have been reduced or canceled. Schools have been closed. Universities have shut their doors. Where Ford, Chrysler, GM and other great auto companies shifted production to jeeps, tanks and bombers in 1942, U.S. auto factories have today been shut down to prevent the spread of the virus. There is talk of quarantines lasting not days or weeks, as Americans knew in the days of measles, mumps, chickenpox, scarlet fever and polio, but months....Is the country prepared for months, or years, of social isolation, if that is what is required to win this war?....As Prohibition proved, Americans are a rule-breaking people. Scores of thousands are injured in auto accidents and thousands killed each year from driving under the influence of alcohol, despite tough laws against drunk driving. A prediction: The longer the orders to shelter in place and self-isolate remain in force, the greater the probability they will begin to be ignored and people will take the risks to end their isolation and be with friends....Will Americans suffer in social isolation, inside their own homes for months, while a state-induced Great Depression washes over the land? My guess is that many will rebel."

The US Coronavirus Death Rate Is Falling -AIER
"As major news outlets like the New York Times have updated the number of cases of COVID-19 and confirmed deaths from it, a new trend has emerged: the death rate, measured as the number of deaths divided by the number of cases, is falling. Six days ago, on March 12th, there were 36 deaths caused by the virus in the U.S. out of a total of 1,215 cases. As of this writing on March 18th, there have been 121 deaths out of a total 7,047 cases. That is a drop in the death rate from 2.96% to 1.72%. This is encouraging, as the U.S. death rate so far has been substantially lower than in China and even lower than France and the U.K. There has been much talk about policy responses to stem the spread of COVID-19, but school closings and social distancing should mostly affect growth in the number of cases, not the deadliness of the disease itself. Why would the U.S. death rate fall so much over just a few days? The answer is that as more people are tested for the virus, the death rate falls because it becomes more accurate. And the most accurate data are likely coming from Germany, which arguably has had better testing than any other country. Germany also has the lowest death rate, at just over 0.1%. If that number sounds familiar, it is roughly the death rate from the 2018-19 flu season in the U.S. So why is the death rate in Germany so low, and why is it falling in the U.S., exactly? The answer is simple arithmetic. If only people who are hospitalized or very sick get tested, then the denominator - the number of COVID-19 cases - will be biased downward. Those with milder symptoms or no symptoms will not be counted, and the virus will appear more deadly than it really is."

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3.19.20 - Coronavirus just one culprit in market meltdown

Gold last traded at $1,473 an ounce. Silver at $12.18 an ounce.

NEWS SUMMARY: Precious metal prices stabilized Thursday despite a stronger dollar. U.S. stocks rebounded from 3-year lows, led by the tech sector, as investor panic selling subsided.

Gold Will Rally Once Stocks Stabilize -FX Empire
"Gold futures are trading flat-to-lower shortly after the regular session opening on Thursday. The price action suggests investor indecision and impending volatility...Essentially, the volatile price action in gold this week has been fueled by the stockpiling of cash. Investors sought to hoard cash in unstable market conditions despite additional measures from the European Central Bank (ECB) to deal with the economic fallout from the coronavirus outbreak. So far investors haven't responded much to loads of stimulus from governments and central banks. These moves have been implemented to boost the economy when the virus is contained, however, they are having very little short-term effect. Clearly, investors want to see containment of the virus which means evidence that it has stopped spreading in the United States and positive movement toward a vaccine. At this time, no amount of credit and monetary stimulus can contain the virus, but it will make a difference later, once the economy starts to recover."

robot Coronavirus just one culprit in stock market meltdown -Crudele/New York Post
"This past Monday - March 16 - became the new holder of the title 'worst day for Wall Street since 1987' when the Dow fell a record-breaking 2,997 points, which made investors 12.9 percent poorer. We all think we know what caused the current selloff in the stock market - the coronavirus that is panicking the world and damaging economies. But, in fact, the virus wouldn't have had such a large effect on people's wealth if certain other things hadn't already been in place. For one, the Federal Reserve's insistence on keeping interest rates too low through the reign of three chairs - Ben Bernanke, Janet Yellen and Jerome Powell - forced people to invest in stocks. And that created artificially higher prices, a bubble that is now bursting....The main thing that's the same: In both cases, Wall Street professionals got much too crazy and drove stock prices to heights that weren't justified by corporate profits. In other words, the so-called price-to-earnings (PE) ratios of stocks were way out of whack in 1987. And, as I've been telling you, that's the same thing that happened before the latest stock market fiasco....The PE ratio of stocks before the recent collapse was 19 to 1. That means share prices for the S & P's 500 index were 19 times the earnings that those companies were expected to have on a per-share basis in 2020. That was dangerously high. The historical PE over time was just 14.8 to 1. Stock prices would have to decline by 23 percent just to get back to the average. Stocks have now fallen around 30 percent from their highs. But here's the new catch with those numbers: Because of the worldwide problem with coronavirus, the profits that companies are expecting to earn this year is also dropping. By how much, nobody knows. But the E - or earnings part of the P/E ratio equation - is definitely coming down. And since no one knows how much earnings will be hurt, nobody can tell you whether stocks are still overpriced even after the recent big decline."

Rattled world 'at war' with coronavirus -Reuters
"Hundreds of millions of people worldwide were adjusting on Wednesday to once-in-a-generation measures to battle the coronavirus crisis that is not only killing the old and vulnerable but also threatening prolonged economic misery. The fast-spreading disease that jumped from animals to humans in China has now infected about 200,000 people and caused nearly 8,500 deaths in 164 nations, triggering emergency lockdowns and injections of cash unseen since World War Two. 'We have never lived through anything like this,' Spain's Prime Minister Pedro Sanchez told a parliament chamber nearly empty with more than 90% of lawmakers staying away....'And our society, which had grown used to changes that expand our possibilities of knowledge, health and life, now finds itself at war to defend all we have taken for granted.'....Around the world, rich and poor alike saw lives turned upside-down as events were cancelled, shops stripped, workplaces emptied, streets deserted, schools shut and travel minimized....Spooked by a seemingly inevitable global recession, rich nations are unleashing billions of dollars in stimulus to economies, aid to health services, loans to tottering businesses, and help for individuals fearful for mortgages and other routine payments. 'This is a once-in-a-hundred-year type event,' said Australian Prime Minister Scott Morrison...Extra cash from governments and central banks failed to calm markets: stocks and oil prices reeled again, with European shares down nearly 5% to approach seven-year lows...Pessimists are factoring in the possibility of recurring outbreaks and years of pain, some even whispering comparisons with the Great Depression of the 1930s. On the ground, millions of workers fear for their jobs."

5 Ways to Control Coronavirus Anxiety -Spirtuality & Health
"In just the space of a week, everyday American life has begun to shut down. Schools, businesses, large events - and now even restaurants and bars in some cities - have shuttered as fear of COVID-19 spreads across the country. Social distancing has begun to take hold, as millions of Americans begin the process of holing up inside of their homes. Some have even been cut off from beloved family members as nursing homes continue to quarantine residents to protect elderly populations most vulnerable to this dangerous respiratory illness. It's no surprise that many of us are dealing with mounting anxiety as uncertainty about what comes next and how the pandemic will affect our lives grows...So it's more important than ever to be both a caregiver and to practice self-care. So what are some things we can do to help us stay calm? Try these five strategies to help you - and your family - manage the fear...1) Turn Off the News - Control your media consumption. While it's important to stay abreast of new developments and keep informed about protecting against the coronavirus, enough is enough....2) Exercise Outdoors - Practicing social distancing doesn't mean you have to entirely cut off access to the outside world. For example, taking walks, biking, or running outside can help you control your anxiety....3) Take Advantage of Time With Your Family - Play board games with the kids and make an extravagant meal with your partner....4) Arrange Video Dates - Arranging a video date with your best friend, sibling, or parent can provide emotional support during trying times....5) Rely on Your Normal Self-Care Routine - Practicing your regular wellness routine can help maintain a semblance of normalcy in your life. Using tools like prayer, meditation, and yoga can give you the support you need to keep calm."

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3.18.20 - Markets Brace for Recession... or Worse

Gold last traded at $1,536 an ounce. Silver at $12.73 an ounce.

NEWS SUMMARY: Precious metal prices eased back Wednesday as panic returned to Wall Street. U.S. stocks tumbled further despite a $1 trillion proposed government bailout as the markets remained highly volatile to the coronavirus economic fallout.

Gold price will bounce back after central banks flood markets -State Street/Kitco
"Gold prices rebounded above $1,500 an ounce on Tuesday and the question some analysts are asking is if investors finally understand gold's role as a safe-haven asset. Investors have been disappointed with gold's performance; however, George Milling-Stanley, chief gold strategist at State Street Global Advisors, said that investors have the wrong perspective on gold. 'The benefit of having gold is that it is an incredibly liquid asset,' Milling-Stanley said in a telephone interview with Kitco News. 'Gold is doing exactly what it 's supposed to do in a liquidity crisis.' Tuesday, gold prices pushed back above $1,500 to be relatively unchanged on the year...By comparison, equity markets are in deep bear market territory. The S&P 500 Index is down nearly 23% year-to-date....History is also on gold's side as Milling-Stanley said gold has outperformed other markets following a crisis. He noted that 2008 was the latest example as prices declined about 20% in 2008 and then went on to hit an all-time high three years later. 'Investors need to ignore all the noise currently in the marketplace,' he said. 'Gold will bounce back as central bank money floods into financial markets.'....He added that once the panic is over, gold should resume its uptrend because of massive deficits and extremely loose monetary policies. In this environment, Milling-Stanley said that gold will not only shine as a safe-haven asset but it will be an important global currency."

bears Markets Won't Give This Fake-Money Economy The Gains It Wants -Bonner/Bonner & Partners
"This is one mean bear market. So far, $11 trillion has been lost on Wall Street...Markets don't always give you what you want or what you need; they give you what you deserve....And so, today, word comes from the millennials: #BoomersGetWhatTheyDeserve. The boomers took over the U.S. government when Bill Clinton was elected in 1993. Then, the federal government owed $4.4 trillion. Since then, boomers have added nearly $20 trillion to federal debt...they invented a fantasy economy, based on unlimited inputs of fake money, fake interest rates, fake expertise"¦ with huge rewards to the old, rich elite"¦ but nothing but debt and disappointment for most people....After the market crash comes a recession/depression. The airlines face bankruptcy. Oil fell to under $30 a barrel on Monday. The whole shale oil industry is reeling...At the end of this crisis - which could last for five to 10 years - Americans will have lost $30 trillion or more. That is a rough estimate of how much fake wealth was pumped into the U.S. economy since the boomers took over. One way or another, that fake wealth is going back whence it came... to nowhere. But wait. Fake money 'saved' the bubble finance era of 2008. The stock market took off"¦ and rose 300%. Can the boomers pull off the same trick in 2020? We wouldn't bet on it. Our guess is that we're getting what we deserve."

The Fiscal Stimulus Panic -Editors/Wall Street Journal
"We will survive the coronavirus panic as Americans adapt, as they always do. We're less confident of the Washington panic, as our politicians rush to throw money around without much thought or economic logic as they almost always do...President Trump appeared to throw his support Tuesday for the Mitt Romney-Steven Mnuchin idea of giving every American a check for $1,000. This will help those who lose their jobs or income from government shutting down retail and other operations. But Congress is also addressing this with expanded jobless insurance, food-stamp and other income transfers, and mandated sick leave that is much better targeted at genuine hardship. Some people who will get the $1,000 won't need it. The politicians are again selling the Keynesian illusion that this is the best way to get cash into the pocket of consumers who will spend it. That claim has failed time and again - from the George W. Bush tax rebate of 2002, to the Nancy Pelosi-Bush rebate of 2008, to the Barack Obama-Pelosi spending spree of 2009. The cash outlay will be even less effective now with so many fewer ways to spend it as much of the economy shuts down. The checks no doubt will be popular, which probably explains GOP support in the Senate and White House. They will also blunt Democratic criticism if businesses also receive aid. But the checks won't come cheap, running at a cost of hundreds of billions of dollars for the first round. What happens if the pandemic lasts into summer? The clamor will be for another round, and then another....The policy goals should be providing relief to people who are suffering hardship from job loss or sickness, and providing emergency loan financing to healthy companies so they can survive the viral economic shutdown and revive the economy on the other side. A thousand bucks won't offset the damage to people if their employers go out of business."

'D' word rears head as coronavirus-hit markets brace for recession -Reuters
"The coronavirus shockwaves rippling through U.S. stocks are forcing investors to contemplate outcomes more dire than a recession, including several quarters of declining economic activity, a credit crisis or even a depression. The rising global toll from the pandemic and the uncertainty over how far it may spread has left investors and economists scrambling to gauge the financial fallout. 'This market looks like it has already priced in most of a garden variety recession,' said Frances Donald, global chief economist at Manulife Investment Management. 'It is now on top of that having to price in some probability of a credit crisis.' Forecasters at Goldman Sachs and other banks are now projecting a steep economic contraction in at least the second quarter as governments in the United States and Europe start shutting restaurants, closing schools and calling on citizens to stay home....The S&P 500 on average has fallen 28% from peak to trough during recessions, according to an analysis of the past 70 years from Keith Lerner, chief market strategist at Truist/SunTrust Advisory Services. As of Monday's close, the benchmark index had declined 29.5% from its Feb. 19 closing record high....The market's reaction on Monday after the Fed's 'drastic action' is 'a sign of a total breakdown of confidence,' said Peter Cardillo, chief market economist at Spartan Capital Securities. 'That's raising the question of how steep of a recession are we going to endure.'....Following the Fed's action, Wall Street's focus is now on what fiscal policies governments will enact, and even more so, on what can be done to contain the virus. 'Nothing else matters if we can't get this under control,' said Eric Winograd, chief U.S. economist at AllianceBernstein."

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3.17.20 - "Just Close The Whole Thing Up" -CNBC

Gold last traded at $1,536 an ounce. Silver at $12.73 an ounce.

NEWS SUMMARY: Precious metals traded mixed Tuesday; with gold rising on Fed actions and silver dipping on recession fears. U.S. stocks swung wildly as Wall Street struggled to recover from its worst day in more than 30 years amid ever-increasing monetary stimulus from the Fed.

Gold undervalued, could rise to $2,000 an ounce in Q2 -ANZ Bank/Kitco
"The gold market is struggling to find traction as massive volatility and uncertainty roil financial markets and investors; however, one Australian bank sees upside potential for gold in the next three months. In a report published last week, ANZ bank said that according to its estimates, gold prices are undervalued. The analysts said that they see prices pushing to $2,000 by the second quarter....The updated outlook comes as gold prices have been unable to maintain recent gains, and even maintain support around $1,500 an ounce. Market analysts have noted that gold has seen renewed selling pressure as panic sweeping through financial markets is prompting investors to 'sell everything.'...ANZ said that in the current environment, fair value for gold is around $1,600 an ounce. 'Our gold-valuation model suggests current spot prices are actually slightly undervalued. Moreover, while net-long investor positioning is reaching record levels, technically it doesn't look overbought,' the analysts said....'Synchronous central-bank rate cuts are the key to supporting gold investment demand. This has significantly raised the probability of gold breaking above USD2,000/oz,' the analysts said in the report."

panic "Just Close The Whole Thing Up": CNBC Anchors Melt Down -Zero Hedge
"Few are dealing with the economic and market turmoil with more chaos and less class and resolve than the expert 'buy and hold' class over at CNBC, who shockingly never said one word of warning to their retail viewers when the market was doing nothing but going straight up for more than a decade, and instead were dragging mom and pop investors into massively overvalued stocks urging them to buy at all time highs, and who are now melting down before our eyes at the first sight of a substantial market pullback. Their solution: own the shorts by shutting down the market entirely. Because if one can't BTFD, is it even a market? As recently as Friday, when the Dow Jones posted a 2000 point gain on the back of a short squeeze that nearly doubled the indexes gains in the last 15 minutes of the day, there was no talk about markets being defective or needing to close. That was, of course, until the Fed's $700 billion 'quarantative easing' bazooka bailout of markets fizzled spectacularly on Sunday nights and futures promptly went limit down. When it appeared that this plan was failing, some of the industry's finest began to panic visibly....Then, after the Fed bazooka failed to calm markets, it sent the popular talking heads into a typing panic...prodding the NYSE to 'close the floor' and then begging for them to 'close the whole thing up' so the market could 'start again later'....The chorus of CNBC anchors who never mentioned that investing includes risk in addition to return during the last 11 years continued, with David Faber joining his co-worker and also suggesting that markets should go on a 'two week holiday'....Forget the idea that closing the markets when they don't go your way is nothing but a temporary measure to pause price discovery that will eventually happen anyway, but the anchors obviously never seemed to consider what the idea of closing the markets could project in term of further panic upon participants...In other words, the thin skin of CNBC's supposed 'financial experts' is (yet again) exacerbating the problem instead of quelling it."

Coronavirus Will Change How We Shop, Travel and Work for Years -Bloomberg
"Every economic shock leaves a legacy. The deadly coronavirus will be no different. The great depression spurred a 'waste not want not' attitude that defined consumer patterns for decades. Hyperinflation in the Weimar Republic still haunts German policy. The Asia financial crisis left the region hoarding the world's biggest collection of foreign exchange. More recently, the 2008 global financial crisis drove a wedge through mature democracies that still reverberates, with workers suffering measly pay gains in the decade since. This time it's a public health emergency that's shaking up the world economy. In just a matter of weeks, people in affected areas have become accustomed to wearing masks, stocking up on essentials, canceling social and business gatherings, scrapping travel plans and working from home....In the white-collar world, workplaces have amped up options for teleworking and staggered shifts - ushering in a new era where work from home is an increasing part of people's regular schedule. 'Once effective work-from-home policies are established, they are likely to stick,' said Karen Harris, managing director of consultancy Bain's Macro Trends Group in New York....The tourism sector is seeing the most drastic hit, with flights, cruises, hotels and the web of businesses who feed off the sector struggling. While tourists will no doubt be eager to explore the world and relax on a beach again, it may take some time before the industry that hires about one in 10 people recovers....'Only in a crisis are governments able to rally people to accept necessary but painful reforms,' said Boughton. 'Every crisis is also an opportunity.'"

'I Am Patrick' Review: The muscular faith of Ireland's patron saint -American Magazine
"Given how coronavirus is wreaking havoc on St. Patrick's Day celebrations, it might be a good time to sit back in a theater (if one is open) with a bottle of Purell hand sanitizer (if you can find one) and reflect on the true inspiration for the holiday - which is not shamrocks, parades and public intoxication. Rather, it's the patron saint of Ireland, who might not have chased out the snakes, but led a life of Christian humility, muscular faith and often breathtaking courage. He deserves better than green beer and leprechauns....The story of Patrick is deserving of an action-thriller. A citizen of a late-fifth-century Britain that was part of a teetering Roman Empire, Patrick was a member of a family that belonged to the church mainly for purposes of paying lower taxes - which they also collected. Religion was an afterthought; they also owned slaves. Patrick learned Latin. He played craps; like his near-contemporary, St. Augustine, he was what one might call a dissolute youth. Then, in the defining episode of his very young life, he was taken captive by Irish raiders, spirited away to what then constituted the ends of the earth - Ireland - and made a slave himself. He then had a reckoning with God that would influence and direct the rest of his days. Unlike a lot of historical drama, 'I Am Patrick' eschews romanticization and gives one a real sense of how brutal life must have been in the early 400s A.D.- civilization existed in small, concentrated outposts surrounded by a great beyond, a tribal, mostly pagan empire falling apart. It was through this that Patrick had to navigate once he heard God's voice telling him to flee back to England, where he was enslaved. Much of 'I Am Patrick' is based on the saint's 'Confessio,' in which he argues himself the 'least among all the Christians' and provides all of the very meager biographical information we have on him. This is fleshed out by the academics and historians, who speculate - knowledgeably - about what likely happened and why. Elva Johnston of University College, Dublin, for instance, makes the very intriguing conclusion that Patrick's success in baptizing the pagan Irish to whom he preached came out of the role of water in Irish myth - that there was a pre-existing spiritual sentiment that the sacrament tapped into, no pun intended."

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3.16.20 - U.S. Moves Nearer to Shutdown

Gold last traded at $1,505 an ounce. Silver at $13.06 an ounce.

NEWS SUMMARY: Precious metal prices fell Monday as investors struggled to find liquidity amid the stock market sell-off. U.S. stocks fell sharply even after the Fed embarked on a massive monetary stimulus campaign to offset slower economic growth amid the coronavirus outbreak.

Gold is the only thing to own after Fed cuts rates to zero -Analysts/Kitco
"A cacophony of instability has hit financial markets at the start of a new trading week, but with central banks, led by the Federal Reserve, dropping interest rates to zero, analysts now say that the only place investors can turn to is gold....The Federal Reserve surprised markets with a second emergency rate cut in as many weeks. Sunday afternoon, the U.S. Central bank said that it was bringing interest rates to within a target range of 0% to 0.25%. 'The effects of the coronavirus will weigh on economic activity in the near term and pose risks to the economic outlook. In light of these developments, the Committee decided to lower the target range,' the Fed said in a statement. Some market analysts have described the latest emergency Fed decision as another panic move. Still, expectations of a global recession continue to rise as the coronavirus continues to spread worldwide, prompting nations to effectively shut down....'I think the only thing you can own right now is gold,' said Adam Button, managing director at Forexlive.com. 'The deficits are doing to be outrageous,' he added. 'During the financial crisis, the government had to bail out the banks, but now because of the impact of the virus, they are going to have to bail out everyone.'....Analysts note that gold continues struggling as crashing equity markets are creating a liquidity crisis for investors. Investors are forced to liquid assets like gold to meet margin calls...However, he added that when the dust settles, gold will be the asset to own."

toilet paper US moves nearer to shutdown amid coronavirus fears -Associated Press
"Officials across the country curtailed many elements of American life to fight the coronavirus outbreak on Sunday, with health officials recommending that groups of 50 or more don't get together and a government expert saying a 14-day national shutdown may be needed. Governors and mayors closed restaurants, bars, and schools as the nation sank deeper into chaos. Travelers returning home from abroad were stuck in line for hours at major airports for screenings, crammed into just the kind of crowded spaces that public health officials have urged people to avoid. In a sign of impending economic gloom, the Federal Reserve slashed its benchmark interest rate to near zero....As Americans struggled with changing their daily habits, the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention issued a dramatic recommendation: Because large events can fuel the spread of the disease, it said gatherings of 50 people or more should be canceled or postponed throughout the country for the next eight weeks....The worldwide outbreak has sickened nearly 170,000 people and left more than 6,500 dead, with thousands of new cases confirmed each day. The death toll in the United States climbed to 64, while infections passed 3,700....For most people, the coronavirus causes only mild or moderate symptoms, such as fever and cough. For some, especially older adults and people with existing health problems, it can cause more severe illness, including pneumonia. The vast majority of people recover."

The stock market is pricing in a recession and maybe something more 'onerous' -CNBC
"The market's blistering sell-off over the last month is so bad that investors have already pretty much priced U.S. stocks as if the economy is headed for a recession, based on a history of past declines around economic downturns by RBC. The median and average recession-related market decline sees the S&P 500 plunge 24% and 32%, peak to trough, respectively, RBC research shows. And with the broad index already down about 28% from its record close in February, it looks like investors think the U.S. is headed for a significant downturn in economic output. The blue-chip, 30-stock Dow Jones Industrial Average is more than 29% off its own record close. 'At Thursday's low of 2,481, the S&P 500 was down 27% from peak, telling us that stocks have started to bake in recession,' wrote RBC Head of U.S. Equity Strategy Lori Calvasina. But Calvasina warned that even though investors already seem to be pricing in a recession, something 'more onerous' could be ahead for investors if the market breaks through that 2,300 level. 'We think it is extremely important to listen to what the stock market is trying to tell us over the next few days. If the S&P 500 breaks below 2,300, we think it will be signaling that stocks are anticipating something more severe than a recession,' she wrote. The S&P 500 was around 2,500 midday Monday."

Crisis Means a New Business Era -Kessler/Wall Street Journal
"The current market turmoil tells me a new era is breaking, so question everything. Will cable, energy, mobile and social media ever come back? And if not, what's next? Well, the knee-jerk reactions will come first. Most think the 2003 SARS epidemic in China ushered in that country's era of e-commerce, but it was going to happen anyway - the crisis only accelerated it. Will energy stay cheap forever after the recent devastation? I doubt it, but the economy can finally benefit from fracking's cheap natural gas. I'd bet so-called clean and renewable energy was set back a decade by having to compete with lower prices. Cheap fossil fuels may also push back any new adoption of carbon-free nuclear energy. More interesting is the emptying of countless college campuses, sending students home. Classes will be online-only until further notice. Smart. But at some point parents will surely ask, 'Why again are we paying 78 grand a year?' Is the end of universities far behind? Similarly, lots of companies are telling employees to work at home. Will an era of telecommuting and no rush-hour traffic finally arrive? The end of China's dominance is certainly coming. No one will ever again concentrate manufacturing in China alone....Another observation: Interest rates and the Federal Reserve may be increasingly irrelevant....What about mobile and cloud computing, and even the stock market and its trillion-dollar valuations?....New eras are notoriously hard to predict. So instead of focusing on which cities are quarantined, start thinking about what's next. Very few investors do."

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3.13.20 - Stocks Plunge 10%, Worst Since 1987

Gold last traded at $1,518 an ounce. Silver at $14.49 an ounce.

NEWS SUMMARY: Precious metal prices extended losses Friday as investors scrambled for liquidity and COVID-19 was declared a national emergency. U.S. stocks attempted to rebound from the sharp losses suffered in the previous session - the worst since the 'Black Monday' market crash in 1987.

Gold drops but still has luster long term -Fox Business
"Gold prices fell 3.2% Thursday but experts say the dumping of the yellow metal is likely a short-term trade and the precious metal remains attractive. Amid extreme volatility, investors are being forced to cover losses in other corners of the market brought on by concerns over the escalating coronavirus outbreak. 'Margin calls and losses in other markets are driving investors to search for cash, and gold happens to be the liquid position they are choosing to cash out on,' wrote Christopher Louney, commodity strategist at RBC Capital Markets....The COVID-19 outbreak has infected 118,332 people worldwide and killed 4,292, according to the latest figures provided by the World Health Organization....Typically, investors flock to gold during times of economic uncertainty, but in some instances, like the current global health crisis, even those assets that are considered safe-havens can see indiscriminate selling as investors seek to raise cash. 'Gold's role as a 'perceived safe haven' is largely what got us here, and despite these sharper moves lower, we do not think it represents the end of the risk-off narrative for gold,' Louney wrote."

bear market Stocks Plunge 10% In Dow's Worst Day Since 1987 -Wall Street Journal
"The selloff in U.S. stocks gathered pace Thursday with the Dow Jones Industrial Average falling nearly 10% in its worst day since the 1987 crash, while the S&P 500 and Nasdaq joined it in bear-market territory. The furious falls in share prices on rising fears of a global slowdown due to the rapid spread of coronavirus occurred despite a $1.5 trillion intervention in short-term funding markets by the Federal Reserve....For the day, the Dow industrials shed 2,352.6 points, or 10% to 21,200.62. The S&P 500 sank 260.74 points, or 9.5%, to 2,480.64. And the Nasdaq Composite slid 750.25 points, or 9.4% to 7,201.80. The drop also placed the tech-heavy index firmly into a bear market. Companies most exposed to the coronavirus outbreak were particularly hard hit, and airline and cruise shares helped lead the tumble. United Airlines Holdings dropped 25%, Delta Air Lines fell 21%, and Spirit Airlines tumbled 33%. Royal Caribbean Cruises plummeted 32%. On Thursday, Princess Cruises canceled all voyages for the next two months after two of its ships suffered coronavirus outbreaks. But few parts of the market were immune. All 11 sectors of the S&P 500 tumbled, with losses led by the real estate and industrial sectors. Even companies that investors thought would reap the benefits of the virus tumbled. Clorox ended the day down 6.3%. Gilead Sciences, which has started testing a virus treatment, fell 6.1%....Outside of the U.S., losses were broad. European equities also fell, with the Stoxx Europe 600 shedding 11.5%, its worst one-day performance on record....The fall for all three U.S. indexes into bear market territory comes just weeks after they each reached all-time-highs. The S&P 500 and Nasdaq both slid into a bear market after just 16 days."

Bazooka Fired: Fed Unleashes $1.5 Trillion Repo Bailout, Expands 'Not QE' To QE5 -Zero Hedge
"After increases in its repo facility twice already this week, from $100billion to $150billion to $175billion per day, and adding added a new 1-month term repo facility, the New York Fed just stunned the market and fired its biggest bazooka since Lehman (not coincidentally, just moments before today's 30Y Treasury auction, as a failed auction would mean, well, game over), by announcing a total of $1 trillion in 3-month repos over two days ($500BN today, $500BN tomorrow), as well as an additional $500BN in one-month repos offered weekly, which means up to $3 trillion in cumulative repos (if fully allotted) may be online by the end of the month. But wait, there's more, because the fed also finally threw in the towel on the semantics bullshit it was pulling since Sept 2019 by pretending that 'QE' is 'NOT QE', when it officially expanded not-QE/QE4 to Q5, when it announced it would start purchasing coupon Treasuries as part of its POMO operations, which as a reminder, was the official trigger transforming Not QE into QE....This was by far the biggest bazooka the Fed has fired since the financial crisis, and... it may not be enough. In fact, stocks are still deep in the red, which means one of two things: 1) The Fed's credibility is now shattered. 2) The market expects a fiscal bailout, or some MMT-esque combination of both. Until and unless the markets gets what it needs, the Fed is now a sideshow and in fact, if this bazooka fails, Powell may consider submitting his resignation this week."

Easy ways to boost your immune system to fight off coronavirus -Telegraph
"'This is a serious infection and no amount of lifestyle intervention will make you invincible,' says Dr Jenna Macciochi, an immunologist at the University of Sussex, whose timely new book Immunity: the science of staying well is out on April 16th. 'But there are plenty of small things you can do that may strengthen your immune system.' 1. Follow the advice "¦ whatever your age - While the elderly are indeed more at risk, your immune system actually started to decline years ago....2. Wash your hands with plenty of water - 'Warm water is better, but getting a lot of water over your hands whilst you're rubbing them together is much more important than the amount of soap used.'....3. Eat a colorful Mediterranean diet - Eating a low-carbohydrate Mediterranean diet rich in different colored fruits and vegetables, will give you the best chance of getting the wide variety of antioxidant and anti-inflammatory phytonutrients your body needs to fight infection....4. If you get symptoms, dose up on vitamin C - 'What the evidence does show is that once a cold has hit, vitamin C can shorten the duration of symptoms,' says Dr Macciochi....5. Don't lose sleep over it - 'Adequate sleep is the bedrock of your whole immune system.'....6. Move around throughout your day - and build some muscle - 'Regular and often is the key for exercise and immunity.'....7. That 'two liters of water' rule - heed it - 'Hydration is critically important but vastly overlooked,' says Dr Walton."

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3.12.20 - 'Not Too Late to Own Some Gold' -Cramer

Gold last traded at $1,568 an ounce. Silver at $15.69 an ounce.

NEWS SUMMARY: Precious metal prices traded lower Thursday on profit-taking amid a global market sell-off. U.S. stocks fell sharply with the S&P 500 joining the Dow in entering a new bear market.

'Still not too late to own some gold' -Cramer/Kitco
"On the day the WHO declared coronavirus a global pandemic and the Dow was down 1,300 points, CNBC's Jim Cramer reminded investors that it is not too late to get into gold. When talking about what to invest in during this market chaos, Cramer tweeted: 'Still not too late to own some gold. Have good cash position'....As of Wednesday, the total number of cases worldwide has risen to above 121,000, with more than 4,300 deaths. When it comes to investing during such turbulent times, Cramer advises combing through your portfolio and looking at drugs and utilities stocks. 'Remember, you want, into the sell-off, drugs, utilities and the highest of growth stocks and not much more. Too much economic activity being squelched by this,' he tweeted. 'Hotels, restaurants travel, cruises all going into recession as we speak,' he added in another tweet."

bear Dow Ends 11-Year Bull Market as Coronavirus Defies Economic Remedies -New York Times
"A renewed plunge in financial markets on Wednesday ended an 11-year bull market for the Dow Jones industrial average as the economic threat posed by the coronavirus outbreak came into stark relief. As policymakers on both sides of the Atlantic appeared unwilling or unable to mount an aggressive response to the crisis, the Dow closed with a loss of nearly 6 percent. That brought its decline from its most recent peak less than a month ago to more than 20 percent - the definition of a bear market....A sharp drop in oil prices is threatening to put energy companies out of business and thousands of American drillers out of work. Supply-chain bottlenecks are forcing factories around the world to cut output, even as a slump in consumer confidence is raising doubts that there will be demand for their goods once production resumes. 'If the Trump administration and Congress can't put together a sizable and responsible package, then a recession seems like a real possibility here,' said Mark Zandi, chief economist for Moody's Analytics. He said he saw a roughly 50 percent chance of a recession in the next year....The only thing that could truly prevent economic damage or settle financial markets lies beyond the power of economic policymakers: getting the virus itself in check. 'I don't think it's something that conventional fiscal and monetary policy can solve,' said Lewis Alexander, chief U.S. economist at Nomura Securities in New York. 'It's not like if you just write a big enough check everything will be fine.'....Cracks were showing even before the crisis. The trade war hurt manufacturers and farmers, leaving the economy even more dependent on consumer spending."

World Health Organization declares the coronavirus outbreak a global pandemic -CNBC
"The World Health Organization declared COVID-19 a global pandemic on Wednesday as the new coronavirus, which was unknown to world health officials just three months ago, has rapidly spread to more than 121,000 people from Asia, the Middle East, Europe and the United States. 'In the past two weeks the number of cases outside China has increased thirteenfold and the number of affected countries has tripled,' WHO Director-General Dr. Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus said at a press conference at the organization's headquarters in Geneva. 'In the days and weeks ahead, we expect to see the number of cases, the number of deaths and the number of affected countries to climb even higher.'....'We're deeply concerned both by the alarming levels of spread and severity, and by the alarming levels of inaction,' he said, just before declaring the pandemic. 'We have rung the alarm bell loud and clear.'....Declaring a pandemic is charged with major political and economic ramifications, global health experts say. It can further rattle already fragile world markets and lead to more stringent travel and trade restrictions. WHO officials had been reluctant to declare a global pandemic, which is generally defined as an illness that spreads far and wide throughout the world."

Understanding the 2020 coronavirus economic crisis -Merk Investments
"As of today, it seems reasonable to state that the coronavirus effects on the economy are unprecedented, or almost unprecedented in modern history. The shock is surely larger than 9/11....A framework for thinking about the situation today looks something like this...The demand curve has shifted to the left as people reduce bookings on cruise ships, airplanes, hotels and the like. There may be fewer trips to restaurants. However, the demand curve shifts to the right as individuals substitute one type of outlay for another. The family that does not take a cruise may instead invest in home improvements or a new car....With negative demand and supply shocks, output will be lower than it otherwise would have been....The uncertainty and fear of the unknown is unprecedented in modern America. That same uncertainty has a grip on the entire world. In time, the public-health establishment will provide the firepower to deal with the virus. How long it will take to provide a vaccine is unknown....As Fed Chairman Powell stated last week, monetary policy cannot invent the vaccine needed to counter the virus.. It is simply a mistake to think of Fed rate cuts as providing stimulus in the usual way we think of 'stimulus.'....American oil producers will see a fall in revenues. Some producers of shale oil using fracking technology are reported to be heavily indebted. They may not be able to service their required bond payments and may have to file for bankruptcy. Most of these firms, if forced into bankruptcy, will be reorganized as existing equity holders are wiped out and bond holders become equity holders."

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3.11.20 - Stock Market Bottom is Not in Yet

Gold last traded at $1,637 an ounce. Silver at $16.72 an ounce.

NEWS SUMMARY: Precious metal prices steadied Wednesday amid continued market volatility. U.S. stocks plummeted as Wall Street worried about a fiscal stimulus package aimed at curbing slower economic growth due to the coronavirus outbreak.

Gold Is King During Times Like This -Seeking Alpha
"The last few weeks, the stock market has been falling apart in the face of the coronavirus news...Right now we are seeing panic in the marketplace, which is causing an incredible amount of volatility across the board....We should be patient with this and allow the volatility to calm itself. We should let everyone who should not be in the market get out. It will clean the market of a lot of buyers who came in recently at the top of the market...What such corrections represent are major opportunities to add to your positions....Looks like we are getting a buy signal in gold. If we get back to $1655, then we will have a buy trigger. A close above $1654 would activate a buy signal. The mean is $1679, which then becomes the target....The correction that we have seen is very bullish for the price. Had we gone up into the mid-$1700s now, it potentially would have completed the annual target for the rest of the year. That would have created a bearish pattern for the rest of the year. What has happened, is that this correction, whatever the cause, is basically very healthy for the market....I strongly recommend accumulating precious metals...I think we are headed for a test of government economic policies, not only here in the US, but on a global basis, because of this tremendous record debt globally. I think this is a fantastic opportunity."

recession A 'short, sharp' global recession is starting to look inevitable -CNN Business
"The coronavirus outbreak has triggered extreme fear in financial markets as investors face up to an unsettling reality: The pandemic, unprecedented in modern times, could tip the world into a recession. Italy's decision to put much of its prosperous north - including its financial capital, Milan - on semi-lockdown, along with an escalating outbreak in the United States and a precipitous crash in oil prices, is forcing economists to reassess their predictions for how the virus will hit growth. To many, a contraction during the first and second quarters of 2020 looks increasingly likely. Joachim Fels, global economic advisor at PIMCO, told clients on Sunday that he now sees a 'distinct possibility' of a recession in the United States and Europe during the first half of the year....'In our view, the worst for the economy is still to come over the next several months,' Fels said. The coronavirus is encouraging people to stay at home and avoid travel, slashing demand for flights, hotel rooms and restaurant bookings. At the same time, factory shutdowns in China and elsewhere, and fears of more disruption in other parts of the world, have snarled supply chains. The longer the pandemic lasts, and the more dramatic the efforts are to contain it, the more profound the effects will be for the global economy. Right now, the situation is highly uncertain. Neil Shearing, group chief economist at Capital Economics, a research firm, said Monday that he sees a 'sharp but probably short recession' as the worst case scenario for now. That could change rapidly. 'As the virus spreads, there's a good chance that that 'worst case' scenario quickly becomes the most likely scenario,' he said in a research note....The good news?...'The outlook is unusually uncertain but our sense at this stage is that this is most likely to be a short, sharp shock,' Shearing said."

Stock market bottom is not in yet -El Erian/CNBC
"The stock market has not reached its bottom yet, even as Wall Street headed higher Tuesday after historic declines, economist Mohamed El-Erian told CNBC. 'It's going to be very volatile but around, unfortunately, a downward trend for now,' the chief economic advisor at Allianz said on 'Squawk Box.'....El-Erian has for weeks been cautioning investors against buying market dips as they've been conditioned to do in recent years because it's a strategy that's worked. On Monday, before the stock market opened, he said stocks could fall up to 30% from last month's highs before reaching their bottom. As of Monday's close, the Dow, S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite were around 19% below their all-time highs, which they reached in mid-February. El-Erian warned investors against the 'economics of fear' as confirmed cases of COVID-19 continued to rise."

The psychology of coronavirus fear - and how to manage it -Quartz
"Let's start with the obvious: Covid-19, the disease caused by a new strain of coronavirus, is scary. It's spreading fast, there is currently no vaccine or preventative treatment for it, and we don't know how deadly it actually is. Under these circumstances, it's understandable that people would be frightened. But some of the public anxiety exhibited in the past weeks has been disproportionate to the risk posed by Covid-19 as we understand it today....So, why are we so afraid of coronavirus? The answer is a 'mix of miscalibrated emotion and limited knowledge,' argues psychologist David DeSteno in an editorial for The New York Times. The non-stop media cycle surrounding the outbreak, doesn't help with that. 'It puts people in a hyper-vigilant state so that any information about it is self-perpetuating,' explains Dorothy Frizelle, a consultant clinical health psychologist in the UK. And emotion impairs our perception of risk....Uncertainty also leaves room for false claims - which, in the middle of an outbreak, can 'lead to behavior that amplifies disease transmission,' writes epidemiologist Adam Kucharski in The Guardian....A rapidly-spreading epidemic can be a particularly tough time for people with preexisting mental health conditions like anxiety or obsessive-compulsive disorder. That's where social support networks are crucial. Above all, health experts say it's crucial not to let panic take over our decision-making and rational thought processes. Otherwise, says BaÅŸoÄŸlu, 'the price to pay' could be 'much greater than the threat the virus poses.'"

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3.10.20 - A Perfect Time to Hold Gold

Gold last traded at $1,649 an ounce. Silver at $16.92 an ounce.

NEWS SUMMARY: Precious metal prices backed off Tuesday on profit-taking and a firmer dollar. U.S. stocks zig-zagged as investors fretted over potential fiscal stimulus to curb slower economic growth stemming from the coronavirus outbreak.

Now is the perfect time to hold gold -BNP Paribas/Kitco
"Investors should look past gold's short-term volatility and pay attention to the broader uptrend as the precious metal continues to look attractive in a negative bond yield environment, according to one market analyst. In an interview with Kitco News, Monday, Harry Tchilinguirian, head of commodity research at BNP Paribas, said that because of low-interest rates now is the 'perfect time to hold some gold.' He explained that real yield on U.S. Treasuries is in negative territory, making gold's opportunity costs nonexistent....'Gold is going to continue to attract investor interest, driven by the monetary policy environment that continues to ease,' he said. 'Faced with no opportunity costs, gold looks good.' In the current low-rate environment, Tchilinguirian said that he sees gold prices pushing to between $1,700 and $1,725 an ounce....'Gold has been good hedge against falling equity prices. Now we see that investors are using that hedge to prop up their equity positions.'"

waterfall Now Comes the Oil Shock -Editors/Wall Street Journal
"President Trump has defended Saudi leader Mohammed bin Salman despite his displays of bad judgment or worse. If the crown prince wants to return the favor, now would be the time amid the panic in oil markets after a price war broke out between former cartel partners Russia and Saudi Arabia...The immediate cause for this chaos is a game of chicken between Riyadh and Moscow. The Saudis were keen to orchestrate production cuts among fellow OPEC members and other major producers to sustain prices as oil demand falls due to Covid-19. Vladimir Putin refused, and in retaliation the Saudis slashed prices on Sunday and promised more production to steal market share from Russia. Oil prices fell through the floor Monday with Brent crude closing at $34.36 a barrel, down 24% from Friday and 50% from its recent peak on Jan. 6. The shock triggered a fall in equities around the world, as investors fled to gold and bonds, with the Dow falling 7.8% Monday. The market worry is that the oil-price plunge will hurt the U.S. economy - the main support for global growth these days - by damaging U.S. shale oil production...A sharp decline in global oil demand now hurts U.S. producers. The damage to producers and workers from a price collapse could exceed the benefit to consumers who pay less for gasoline. The break-even oil price for these producers varies by company and the shale oil well, with some in Texas's Permian Basin now claiming to be able to make money at $30 a barrel....Mr. Putin is willing to endure lower prices because he wants to break the U.S. shale industry. U.S. exports to Europe threaten Russia's energy hold on Western Europe....The longer this oil-price war continues, the greater the danger that a crisis in the oil patch combined with the coronavirus will do broader damage."

Black Monday... Part Two -Zero Hedge
"At its lows today, this was the market's biggest down day since 1987....Did the 11-year-long, almost unstoppable bull run that started on March 9, 2009, just end on March 9, 2020? Here's another stat for the record books. Total U.S. Trading volume, on a 10-day moving average basis, is now higher than during the meltdown in 2008. Volume is another whopper today, over 17 billion shares....The situation was worsened considerably as both Russia and Saudi Arabia stood poised to flood the market with cheap crude (supply) in an all-out price war just as the coronavirus is spurring the first contraction in demand since 2009. 'The situation we are witnessing today seems to have no equal in oil market history,' said IEA Executive Director Fatih Birol. 'A combination of a massive supply overhang and a significant demand shock at the same time.' Oil futures fell by almost one-third in New York and London on Monday, the biggest drop since the Gulf War in 1991, before pulling back to a 20% decline. Extreme Fear has reached its extreme-est level..."

Coronavirus Is Priced. Inept Responses from Governments Aren't -Tamny/Real Clear Markets
"Investment powers economic growth. Period...Consumption is a consequence of production, and investment powers production. The more investment in our capacity to produce the more resources boosting our ability to produce, at which point our ability to consume soars....Looked at more broadly, the innovative, life-altering, growth-boosting businesses in the economy are almost invariably a consequence of wildly courageous, risk-ignoring investment....Which brings us to Jason Furman's typically obtuse opinion piece in the Wall Street Journal last week, titled 'The Case for a Big Coronavirus Stimulus.'...Needless to say, the coronavirus scare has given life to a policy crowd ever eager to centrally plan good outcomes....Right when investment is needed, policy types are looking to stimulate consumption. They can do no such thing as is....The problem is that the Ruling Classes don't seek what's best for growth. They seek what's best for them. In an eerie replay of Rahm Emanuel's line about how 'you never let a crisis go to waste.'....With the virus priced, investors are now hedging themselves against a typically obtuse and alarmist reaction from policymakers that will enhance the power of government at the expense of the private sector where all growth takes place."

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3.9.20 - Stocks and Oil Prices Plummet

Gold last traded at $1,674 an ounce. Silver at $17.30 an ounce.

NEWS SUMMARY: Precious metal prices seesawed Monday as global market volatility spiked and stocks and oil plummeted. U.S. stocks cratered as investors grappled with the sinking price of oil and the spread of the coronavirus.

Dow plummets 1,500 points, S&P 500 sinks 6% amid oil price war -CNBC
"Stocks cratered Monday as investors grappled with the sinking price of oil and the spread of the coronavirus. Trading was halted for 15 minutes until reopening at 9:49 a.m. ET. At one point in morning trading, the 30-stock Dow dropped 2,046 points and the S&P 500 cratered 7.4%. Investors continued to seek safer assets amid additional fears that the coronavirus will disrupt global supply chains and tip the economy into a recession. The yield on the benchmark 10-year Treasury note dropped below 0.5% for the first time ever, while the 30-year rate breached 1%. At one point early Monday, the 10-year slid to 0.318%. Saudi Arabia on Saturday slashed official crude selling prices for April, in a sudden U-turn from previous attempts to support the oil market as the coronavirus hammers global demand. 'Crude has become a bigger problem for markets than the coronavirus,' Adam Crisafulli, founder of Vital Knowledge, said Sunday. 'It will be virtually impossible for the [S&P 500] to sustainably bounce if Brent continues to crater,' he added....President Donald Trump blamed the media and the oil price war for the stock rout on Monday, arguing in a series of tweets that lower gasoline prices are 'good for the consumer.'"

the Fed What Can The Fed Do? Print & Buy, Buy, Buy... Stocks -Smith/Zero Hedge
"Everyone with a pension fund or 401K invested in stocks better hope the Fed becomes the buyer of last resort, and soon...The Fed can create U.S. dollars out of thin air and use these dollars to buy assets either directly or through proxies...The Fed's balance sheet currently stands at $4.24 trillion. Doubling this to $8.5 trillion would bring the balance sheet to 39% of U.S. GDP ($22 trillion) and 7.5% of total U.S. household assets ($113 trillion)....Why would the Fed double its balance sheet? One reason would be the Fed moves from being the lender of last resort to the buyer of last resort, that is, the buyer of iffy assets no one else will buy such as junk corporate debt and junk bonds. Why would the Fed become the buyer of last resort? To keep the entire financial system from collapsing under the weight of junk debt and fast-evaporating collateral....If the stock market drops 50%, that wipes out pension funds, 401Ks, and mountains of leverage. In other words, the Fed has to save all the asset bubbles to save the real-world economy which is now dependent on the excesses of financialization that have enriched the few at the expense of the many."

Gold hits 7-year high but 'fear in markets' could push it to $2,000 -Business Insider
"Gold prices jumped above $1,700 on Monday, hitting a seven-year high as a coronavirus-fueled sell-off pushed investors into safer assets. However, analysts have said that the precious metal could continue to climb higher. 'Gold could go through $2,000 this year, especially post the Federal Reserve's emergency action last week and the follow through we expect from them,' Clark Fenton, portfolio manager of diversified returns at RWC Partners, said in a research note on Monday. 'It may look like gold has already rallied strongly, but investors have not missed their opportunity - we think it has a long way to go from here, not simply because it's commonly viewed as a safe haven but because the world has now changed fundamentally. We've never seen real rates this low globally, so investors will be forced to search beyond bonds to preserve their wealth,' Fenton added....'Stepping back from recent price action, we think macro conditions continue to be positive for gold. Monetary policy is easing globally, with the Fed widely expected to cut rates further. Uncertainty remains high as the global economy contends with the COVID-19 outbreak. If anything, we think the rationale for holding gold is becoming even stronger,' Joni Teves, strategist at UBS, said in a research note late last week."

Mask or No Mask? What the Virus Experts Say -Bloomberg
"Public health officials have been clear about it: There's no need for healthy people to go around wearing face masks to protect themselves from the novel coronavirus. That hasn't stopped a run on supplies, which has led to a shortage of face masks for medical personnel coping with the epidemic, who do need them....The World Health Organization says healthy people need to wear masks only when taking care of those who are sick or suspected of infection. The U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention 'does not recommend' people who are well wear them, except in that circumstance. U.S. Surgeon General Jerome Adams went further, tweeting, 'Seriously people - STOP BUYING MASKS!' Health-care providers who can't get masks are at risk, he said, and that in turn raises the overall risk to the community....When are regular people advised to wear masks? Mainly if they are coughing or sneezing. A cough is a common symptom of infection with the virus that causes Covid-19, and the virus spreads in respiratory droplets - spatters of liquid forcefully expelled with an infected person's cough or sneeze....The WHO emphasizes that if you're going to use a mask, it's vital to do so correctly: put them on with clean hands, remove them from behind without touching the front and wash your hands afterward, never re-use single-use masks, and dispose of them properly."

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3.6.20 - Gold on Track for a 7% Weekly Gain

Gold last traded at $1,674 an ounce. Silver at $17.30 an ounce.

NEWS SUMMARY: Precious metal prices continued their steady climb Friday on safe haven buying and a weaker dollar. U.S. stocks fell, extending the deep rout in the previous session, as Wall Street edges closer to the end of a tumultuous trading week.

Gold climbs, on the verge of sharpest weekly rise since 2008 financial crisis -Marketwatch
"Gold prices on Friday were gaining and on the brink of the sharpest weekly advance for bullion since the 2008 financial crisis as fear about the economic impact of the coronavirus outbreak drove appetite for assets perceived as havens, including bullion and government debt. Prices for the yellow metal, however, pared some of its earlier advance to trade well below the day's best levels after data Friday revealed that the U.S. created 273,000 new jobs...'February nonfarm payrolls does not reflect any impact of coronavirus. March will,' said Chintan Karnani, chief market analyst at Insignia Consultants. 'At the moment, US jobs market is resilient to coronavirus. US corporate profitability is not immune to coronavirus.' Gold for April delivery on Comex rose $18.10, or 1.1%, to $1,686.50 an ounce, after surging 1.5% in the previous session. For the week, bullion is on pace to gain 7.5%, which would represent its largest weekly gain for a most-active contract since the 2008 financial crisis, according to FactSet data....The dollar has declined more than 2% this week as measured by the ICE U.S. Dollar Index. A weaker dollar can raise the appeal of dollar-price assets like gold to buyers using foreign currency."

panic attack Bonds Rally as Investors Dump Stocks -Wall Street Journal
"Market upheaval intensified Friday as investors sheltered in haven assets, pushing the yield on long-term U.S. government bonds to unprecedented levels and setting gold up for its best week in more than a decade. The yield on the benchmark 10-year Treasury note sank below 0.7% for the first time. The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 753 points, or 2.9%, in morning trading in New York. The S&P 500 dropped 3.1%, while the Nasdaq Composite slid 2.9%. The selloff put all three indexes on course for weekly losses....The continued market jitters - even after the Federal Reserve unexpectedly cut rates and U.S. lawmakers approved roughly $8 billion in emergency spending - is focusing attention now on potential government measures to counteract the economic impacts of the coronavirus. 'Developed economies are less and less able to stomach any black-swan scenario,' said Sophie Huynh, a cross-asset strategist at Societe Generale....Investors sought out assets that are considered low in risk - such as government bonds and gold - on worries about the economic impact of the coronavirus....Market moves have grown more extreme because of uncertainties about how long the outbreak will last and what its economic effects will be, Mr. Yong said. Earlier assumptions about a V-shaped recovery have fallen away, he said."

Coronavirus: US banks ready disaster plans -Yahoo Finance
"Large US banks have begun testing crisis measures in case of a broader coronavirus outbreak that prevents staff from going to work, banking sources told AFP. JPMorgan Chase, Morgan Stanley, Goldman Sachs and Citigroup have asked hundreds of workers to work from home as part of emergency preparedness. 'We are asking some employees to work from home over the next two weeks just so we can test systems and remote access,' said one person familiar with the process, characterizing the step as 'typical contingency stuff.' JPMorgan has undertaken tests at a disaster recovery site in London and two in the United States, in Brooklyn and the state of New Jersey, a source told AFP. Citigroup has undertaken a similar process in London and New Jersey, while Goldman Sachs has done tests at a site in London."

WHO calls on all nations to 'pull out all the stops' to fight coronavirus -CNBC
"The World Health Organization on Thursday called on all nations to 'pull out all the stops' to fight the COVID-19 coronavirus as it continues to spread outside of China. 'This epidemic can be pushed back but only with a coordinated and comprehensive approach that engages the entire machinery of government,' WHO Director-General Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus said during a press briefing at the agency's headquarters in Geneva. 'We're calling on every country to act with speed, scale and clear-minded determination.' Tedros said world health officials are 'deeply concerned' about the increasing number of countries reporting cases, especially those with weaker health-care systems. He's also worried that some countries aren't taking this seriously enough or have decided that there's nothing they can do to curb local outbreaks. 'This epidemic is a threat for every country, rich and poor. And as we've said before, even the high-income countries should expect surprises,' he said."

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3.5.20 - Barrons: Why the Gold Rally is Just Getting Started

Gold last traded at $1,668 an ounce. Silver at $17.38 an ounce.

NEWS SUMMARY: Precious metal prices rose sharply Thursday on safe-haven buying and a weaker dollar. U.S. stocks opened sharply lower as markets remained choppy in the face of the fast-spreading coronavirus.

Gold Prices Are Surging. Why the Rally Is Just Getting Started. -Barrons
"Gold got a lift from the Federal Reserve's surprise move Tuesday to cut its key short-term rate by ½ percentage point, to a range of 1% to 1.25%. That has fed the continuing rally in the U.S. Treasury market with the 10-year note touching below 1% for the first time. Lower rates benefit gold by reducing the appeal of holding cash versus gold, which yields nothing. There are more than $14 trillion of negative-yielding debt in the world, mostly in Europe. Gold has recently broken out of a trading range and is now nearing its high last week of $1,659 an ounce. The metal peaked at $1,900 an ounce in 2011. 'The flows into gold are just getting started,' says Peter Grosskopf, chief executive of Sprott, a Toronto asset manager focused on precious metals. 'Gold is now being seen as mandatory portfolio insurance and not a fringe asset. It has a long way to gain on fiat currencies' like the dollar that aren't backed by anything tangible....Grosskopf says the growing demand and chart patterns point to gold hitting $2,000 an ounce. He argues that the Fed's rate action failed to lift stocks Tuesday because financial markets have entered a 'vicious cycle.' Rate cuts have less and less impact in a debt-laden economy when the government is running trillion-dollar annual deficits, he argues."

gold ratio Fed Rate Cuts, Stimulus Prepare Economy for Recession -Bonner/Bonner & Partners
"We still don't know which way the markets are going. But the confusion"¦ absurdity"¦ and volatility bespeak not merely a routine market correction, but a 21st-century nervous breakdown...And the Fed can't do anything about it. Note what happened in our favorite indicator - the Dow-to-Gold ratio...Its 200-day moving average crossed over to the downside. In other words, it gave us a 'buy' signal. Buy gold that is. Dump stocks. We didn't really need the signal. Sticking with our core timing program, we buy stocks when we can get the Dow for five ounces of gold"¦ or less....Measured in gold - the only true money - stocks are almost exactly where they were 24 years ago...But the Dow-to-Gold ratio isn't the only thing cautioning us out of the stock market. There are two other warning signs...The yield on 10-year Treasury bonds - the common brick upon which rests the whole U.S. financial world - fell below 1% for the first time ever. This means three things: First, people are running scared. They want what they see as the safest refuge in the financial world - U.S. bonds. Second, the economy is softening. The falling T-bond forecasts recession ahead. Third, speculators expect the Fed to buy more T-bonds at higher prices....Speculators know as well as we do that the Fed is in an Inflate-or-Die trap. Then, when the Fed only cut the expected 50 basis points, they sold...So heads up, Jerome Powell...you'll have to do better than a measly 50 basis points."

Is the Fed a pawn of the stock market? -The Hill
"The Federal Reserve's decision to lower the federal funds rate by 50 basis points on Tuesday is the latest indication that it is becoming an unwitting agent of the U.S. stock market. Investors had been expecting the Fed to lower interest rates by that amount at the FOMC meeting on March 17-18 in response to heightened fears about the coronavirus outbreak. They were confident this would happen. The reason: They knew the Fed would not want to risk disappointing the markets and be blamed for a renewed stock market selloff....Most economists believe Fed easing will have only limited impact on the economy. The main reason is that it cannot counter the effects of quarantines and travel bans that curtail economic activity. Rather, the intent of policy easing is to bolster investor confidence to sustain the stock market...This logic might be used to justify the policy easing. But the Fed must also be aware that repeated actions to bolster the stock market may undermine its credibility."

Coronavirus Containment Is an 'Unlikely Outcome' -Wall Street Journal
"More cases of the novel coronavirus were reported globally, from Australia to South Korea, as some health officials warned it would be impossible to fully contain the pathogen now that infections are spreading within many communities....'We do have an evolution happening in the spread of this virus,' said Brad Hazzard, the health minister for New South Wales state, which includes Sydney. Authorities are trying to stop the spread but containment is 'an unlikely outcome,' he said. Community transmission is a milestone for any disease and makes it more difficult for health officials given that the virus could be circulating among the general public. Several countries reported increases in coronavirus cases. South Korea, the hardest-hit country outside of China, said Thursday afternoon it now has 6,088 coronavirus cases, up by 467 from a day earlier. Japan reported 33 more cases, bringing its total to 317....The number of cases in the U.S. has risen to 159, with 11 deaths, according to data from Johns Hopkins University. In Washington state's King County, which includes Seattle, officials on Wednesday disclosed 10 new cases of infection, bringing the county's total to 31. Most of the new cases were residents of a nursing home that has become the center of an outbreak, suggesting the virus is spreading between people in the community there....In California, Gov. Gavin Newsom declared a state of emergency so the government could make more resources available to combat the virus's spread....There have been more than 95,000 cases of infection world-wide, with about 15,000 outside of China, according to data from Johns Hopkins. Globally, about 3,200 people have died....In the U.S., the House of Representatives passed an $8.3 billion emergency spending package on Wednesday to combat the virus."

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3.4.20 - Epidemics Reveal Truth About Societies

Gold last traded at $1,642 an ounce. Silver at $17.25 an ounce.

NEWS SUMMARY: Precious metal prices inched higher Wednesday on safe-haven buying despite a firmer dollar. U.S. stocks rose as investors were upbeat about Joe Biden's results from Super Tuesday.

Gold to boom after Fed's coronavirus rate cut -Fox Business
"Gold prices surged Tuesday after the Federal Reserve made its first emergency rate cut since the 2008 global financial crisis amid concerns the coronavirus outbreak would curtail U.S. economic growth. The precious metal rose as much as 3.7 percent to $1,650.50 an ounce, and was within striking distance of its seven-year closing high of $1676.60. 'Historically, emergency cuts have been very bullish for gold,' Ryan Giannotto, director of research at GraniteShares, a New York-based independent exchange-traded fund company, told FOX Business. He pointed to gold gaining 17.5 percent in the 12 months following the 2008 emergency rate cut as evidence. Giannotto says the Fed's 'drastic action' increases the 'hurricane cone of uncertainty' and signals further central bank accommodation 'could be in the pipeline.' 'Going back to 1971, gold has rallied 53 percent over the following 24 months' from a yield-curve inversion, he said. Since the 2-10-year spread first inverted on Aug. 23, 2018, gold prices have climbed by 7.6 percent, suggesting the price would reach more than $2,300 if it matched historical patterns."

covid-19 A Misplaced Faith in the Power of Central Banks -Wall Street Journal
"Wall Street and President Trump have begged, admonished and tweeted for the Federal Reserve to come to the economy's rescue. Tuesday morning, the Fed obliged. But their faith is likely to prove misplaced. The Fed cannot save the U.S. economy from the coronavirus, for two reasons. First, it can't restart factories that are missing parts as the virus disrupt supply chains or persuade worried vacationers to fly. Second, and potentially more important, central banks are losing their grip on the business cycle. The Fed had little interest-rate ammunition with which to boost growth even before Tuesday's cut; the European Central Bank and the Bank of Japan effectively have none. The world is facing its first big shock in an era when central banks are no longer omnipotent....Over time, the supply-side disruptions of pandemics have been compounded by demand-side effects: precautionary measures by the authorities, employers and individuals to avoid infection. These behavioral effects account for 80% to 90% of the economic hit from epidemics, according to work by Warwick McKibbin, an economist at Australian National University....The Fed can't offset these effects, said Jan Hatzius, Goldman's chief economist. 'If you're worried about catching a virus, you're not going to be persuaded to put yourself at risk because of small changes in your wealth or borrowing rates.'"

The market is expecting the Fed to do a lot more -CNBC
"The Federal Reserve's extraordinary rate cut Tuesday is likely only the first of multiple efforts to stem fear over the threat the coronavirus poses to global growth and financial markets. No sooner had the U.S. central bank announced a half percentage point reduction than market participants began speculating about what was next. Wall Street broadly expects the Fed to follow up with another cut in a few weeks followed by more monetary easing in April....One source of disappointment may have come when Powell indicated that he doesn't foresee the Fed expanding its balance sheet through asset purchases - quantitative easing - in response to current conditions....Indeed, with Tuesday's announced cut the Fed now only has another percentage point, or 100 basis points, left to go. And Wall Street expects the central bank not to waste time in using up that remaining space. Both Citigroup and Bank of America Global Research expect the Fed to do at least 25 basis points more at the March meeting. BofA sees another similar reduction in April; Citi sees either either 50 basis points in March or 25 basis points in each month."

Epidemics Reveal the Truth About the Societies They Hit -Applebaum/The Atlantic
"Part of the problem is that the coronavirus danger cannot be seen: 'A pestilence does not have human dimensions, so people tell themselves that it is unreal, that it is a bad dream that will end,' Albert Camus wrote in The Plague. This, of course, very much describes the current situation: Many people cannot bear the idea that something invisible can change their plans...Invisibility also creates uncertainty, and uncertainty can be manipulated so that it serves other ends....But not everyone will behave badly. Camus' story also has heroes...the doctors, the volunteers who help them, and even a civil servant, Monsieur Grand, who seeks to deal with the plague by recording it, measuring it, and keeping track of what has happened....These are the kinds of people who will be the heroes in our era, too. The scientists and public-health scholars who immediately put out information about numbers and cases; the research teams that immediately began to work on vaccines; the nurses and doctors who immediately decide to remain inside quarantined regions, as many did in Italy, as well as in Wuhan, China. Not all of their judgments will be correct, and they will not always agree with one another....Epidemics, like disasters, have a way of revealing underlying truths about the societies they impact....In the U.S., I am afraid we might learn that neither our public-health system nor our 'system' more broadly understood how to build feelings of trust. Even though we have the highest-tech health-care system in the world, even though we have the best surgeons and the best equipment, we have not created a public-health culture that induces confidence. The hospital system has been pared down to the bone; there is no extra capacity, and everyone knows it. If people have to pay to be tested, then many may refuse. If people have to be quarantined, they may escape....We might get lucky this time, but we should use the opportunity to prepare ourselves, mentally as well as medically, for the epidemic that comes next - and for the one after that."

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3.3.20 - U.S. Stocks Headed for 40% Plunge

Gold last traded at $1,645 an ounce. Silver at $17.26 an ounce.

NEWS SUMMARY: Precious metal prices spiked upward Tuesday after a spooked Fed cut interest rates the most since 2008. U.S. stocks sunk in volatile trading after the Fed slashed interest rates by half a percent in an emergency effort to stem slower economic growth from the coronavirus outbreak.

Stock markets are headed for a 40 percent plunge, says economist who predicted financial crisis -The Week
"While one expert warned fallout from the global coronavirus outbreak could be 'worse than the financial crisis' of 2008, the economist who correctly predicted that very crisis is now saying the idea of a major global recession 'doesn't sound too farfetched.' Nouriel Roubini, a New York University business professor and market prognosticator who foretold the housing bubble burst, told Yahoo Finance on Friday to expect 'severe' consequences as the coronavirus continues to rattle markets. How severe? He told Der Spiegel it could be worse than investors even believe at this point, predicting 'global equities to tank by 30 to 40 percent this year.' He said people 'prefer to believe in miracles,' (not necessarily referencing President Trump's prediction the coronavirus will 'disappear ... like a miracle,') and don't realize the 'simple math' tells us that realistically, a squeezed Chinese economy will mean downturns around the globe. 'This crisis will spill over and result in a disaster,' said Roubini. Roubini, who is often nicknamed Dr. Doom for his frequent pessimistic predictions, also saw doom and gloom for Trump's future as president as a result of any economic strife....Though the week just saw a 3,500-point drop for the Dow Jones Industrial Average, Roubini warned: 'It is far from being over.'"

central bankers Gold Jumps, Dollar Dumps After 'Emergency' 50bps Fed Rate-Cut -Zero Hedge
"A desperate Fed has once again met market expectations, The Fed has just announced an emergency 50bps rate-cut. In a press statement Federal Reserve chairman Jerome Powell said, 'The fundamentals of the U.S. economy remain strong. However, the coronavirus poses evolving risks to economic activity.' This is the largest rate-cut since the fall of 2008, and just the ninth emergency rate cut in history. So you have to wonder, just how huge a deal is the virus' impact on the global economy - despite consensus that this dip in economic activity will almost immediately v-shaped recover back to the new normal?....It seems the current Fed is ignoring the risks that former Dallas Fed head warned of last week...Stocks are losing their initial gains...Gold is jumping...And the dollar is dumping...But hey, The Fed managed to un-invert the yield curve...'Does The Fed really want to have a put every time the market gets nervous?...Coming off all-time highs, does it make sense for The Fed to bail the markets out every single time... creating a trap?"

Super Tuesday polls: Bernie's edge, Biden's bounce and Bloomberg's debut -Politico
"Bernie Sanders got blown out in South Carolina - but he's poised to rebound on Super Tuesday, according to new polls released over the weekend. Sanders holds a big lead in delegate-rich California, and he's also the favorite in Texas, these surveys show. But in what could be a state-by-state - and district-by-district - race for delegates at the Democratic National Convention, the precise margins of Sanders victories on Super Tuesday could produce wildly varying outcomes. And one thing the polls will almost certainly struggle to measure: any bounce Joe Biden will get out of his runaway victory in South Carolina on Saturday. Here are five takeaways from last weekend's Super Tuesday polls: 1) Sanders leads in California, but others could hit the delegate threshold. 2) Is Bernie going to win Texas, too? 3) Southern states look like the Super Tuesday battlegrounds. 4) Can Warren hold off Sanders in Massachusetts? 5) Don't look for signs of a Biden bounce in the polls."

Here's why the coronavirus may clobber your retirement plans -CNBC
"Americans nearing retirement are among the many casualties of the coronavirus, as fears around its global spread and resulting economic damage caused a steep selloff in the stock market last week that potentially upended the retirement outlook for many individuals. The S&P 500, Dow Jones Industrial Average and Nasdaq Composite - which serve as barometers of the U.S. stock market - each fell by more than 10% last week, their biggest weekly declines since October 2008....That means a near-retiree with all their money in a mutual fund tracking the Dow index would have lost more than 10% of what they had earmarked for retirement. 'For many people thinking of converting retirement wealth into a stream of income, a 3,000-point drop in the stock market will reduce their ability to do that today,' said Brigitte Madrian, dean of the Brigham Young University Marriott School of Business....Near-retirees didn't escape last week's market rout unscathed. Unfortunately, there aren't many things they can do to recover quickly now that the damage has been done....'At some point it becomes too late to do anything after the fact,' said Wade Pfau, a professor of retirement income at the American College of Financial Services....Retirees can turn to other assets like cash, bonds (and gold) as they wait for stocks to bounce back, he said."

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2.28.20 - Stocks Face Biggest Weekly Losses Since 2008

Gold last traded at $1,581 an ounce. Silver at $16.59 an ounce.

NEWS SUMMARY: Precious metal prices eased back Friday as demand weakened and some investors sold gold to maintain liquidity. U.S. stocks tumbled further - ending the market's worst week since the 2008 financial crisis - as worries over the coronavirus and its impact on the economy continue to rattle investor sentiment.

Goldman sees $1,800 gold as 'haven of last resort' -Straits Times
"Goldman Sachs boosted its gold forecast to $1,800 an ounce as the coronavirus, depressed real rates, and increased focus on the US election continue to drive demand for the metal as a haven. Gold is trading near a seven-year high, supported by an increasing number of coronavirus cases worldwide that threaten to curtail global economic activity. The metal has outperformed traditional haven currencies including the Japanese yen and Swiss franc as 'the haven of last resort,' Goldman analyst Mikhail Sprogis said in a note on Wednesday. The bank raised its 12-month projection by $200, and said 'in the event that the virus effect spreads to Q2, we could see gold top $1,800/oz already on a 3-month basis.' The bank expects prices to climb to $1,700 an ounce in three months, and to $1,750 in six months. It previously forecast $1,600 for both time frames. Goldman also raised its silver forecast."

the economist The virus is coming -The Economist
"In public health, honesty is worth a lot more than hope. It has become clear in the past week that the new viral disease,covid-19 will spread around the world....Officials will have to act when they do not have all the facts, because much about the virus is unknown. A broad guess is that 25-70% of the population of any infected country may catch the disease. China's experience suggests that, of the cases that are detected, roughly 80% will be mild, 15% will need treatment in hospital and 5% will require intensive care. Experts say that the virus may be five to ten times as lethal as seasonal flu, which, with a fatality rate of 0.1%, kills 60,000 Americans in a bad year. Across the world, the death toll could be in the millions. If the pandemic is like a very severe flu, models point to global economic growth being two percentage points lower over 12 months, at around 1%; if it is worse still, the world economy could shrink. As that prospect sank in during the week, the S&P 500 fell by 10%....China's experience holds three important lessons - to talk to the public, to slow the transmission of the disease and to prepare health systems for a spike in demand. A good example of communication is America's Centers for Disease Control, which issued a clear, unambiguous warning on February 25th....The best time to inform people about the disease is before the epidemic. One message is that fatality is correlated with age. If you are over 80 or you have an underlying condition you are at high risk; if you are under 50 you are not. Now is the moment to persuade the future 80% of mild cases to stay at home and not rush to a hospital....China's second lesson is that governments can slow the spread of the disease. Flattening the spike of the epidemic means that health systems are less overwhelmed, which saves lives....The third lesson is to prepare health systems for what is to come. That entails painstaking logistical planning. Hospitals need supplies of gowns, masks, gloves, oxygen and drugs....This virus has already exposed the strengths and weaknesses of China's authoritarianism. It will test all the political systems with which it comes into contact, in both rich and developing countries. China has bought governments time to prepare for a pandemic. They should use it."

Stocks Face Biggest Weekly Losses Since 2008 -Wall Street Journal
"Stock markets around the world extended a punishing selloff, dragged toward their worst week since the financial crisis by mounting investor unease about the economic fallout from the coronavirus epidemic....'We're drinking from a fireman's hose this morning,' said Patrick Spencer, managing director at U.S. investment firm Baird...Fears about the coronavirus have rapidly mushroomed, with investor anxiety that its spread will dent economic growth around the world strengthening as new cases cropped up. Goldman Sachs Group Inc. said it's now expecting 0% corporate earnings growth in 2020. Investors have been trading at a frenzied pace, fueling the swift decline. Stock trading volumes jumped to a year-long high on Thursday while listed options trading this week soared to some of the highest levels ever. The frenetic trading helped push the S&P 500 down more than 10% from its recent highs at unprecedented speed, with the S&P 500 falling from a record into a correction in just six sessions....Some investors have ramped up bets that the Federal Reserve will slash rates again this year, after decreasing them three times in 2019. But some analysts warn that central banks, which have cut rates and launched massive asset-purchase programs in recent years, might not be able to stem losses in the face of an outbreak that has a jittery public canceling travel plans and potentially curbing spending. 'I personally can't see why cheap money will stop this rout because this is the type of uncertainty that isn't economic. It isn't about Trump and trade uncertainty. This is about you and I deciding that we are going to change our behaviors for a while,' said Neil Dwane, global strategist at Allianz Global Investors."

Coronavirus Prompts a Whole City to Try Home Schooling -Wall Street Journal
"In Hong Kong, the home of schools that are the envy of high-achieving and aspirational parents everywhere, education is making a huge shift. To the dining room. Concerns about coronavirus have led to a two-month school closure for the city's 800,000 students, prompting a crash course in digital learning. Instead of calling off lessons, many schools expect students to keep up their work online, sending them assignments to complete and submit for grading. Six-year-olds are writing nonfiction books and toddlers are having live video interactions with nursery-school teachers. The academic experiment has children and their parents, many of whom also have to work at home because their offices are closed, crammed into the same space. It's a potential harbinger of what might face the U.S. if the virus continues to spread....Hong Kong, a densely populated city with 7.5 million people, has so far reported 91 confirmed coronavirus cases. Following a week-long Lunar New Year holiday, the government closed all schools starting Feb. 3 and said they won't reopen until it is safe for students to congregate again. The earliest date schools could reopen is April 20....In mainland China, schools were on holiday until mid-February but now those closures have been extended and some are experimenting with online learning. South Korea has also closed some schools."

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2.27.20 - Gold Could Skyrocket as Market Crashes

Gold last traded at $1,649 an ounce. Silver at $17.84 an ounce.

NEWS SUMMARY: Precious metal prices rose Thursday on bargain-hunting and safe-haven buying. U.S. stocks fell into correction territory as investors worried the coronavirus may be spreading in the U.S. amid a slew of corporate and analyst warnings.

Gold Price Could Skyrocket as Stock Market Crash Looks Imminent -CCN
"A flurry of green days since Feb. 5 saw the yellow metal rise to almost $1,690 per ounce. This was the highest price since January 2013. Surging gold prices also coincided with a U.S. stock market crash as investors finally opened their eyes to a potential coronavirus pandemic....There are plenty of headwinds that can crash the U.S. stock market. A market crash will likely fuel another gold rally. Despite the Chinese government's best efforts, the world's second-largest economy has come to a dead stop. The 'world's factory' is not operating anymore, and businesses around the globe have started feeling the effects of it....As the world enters a supply shock, 94% of the Fortune 1,000 companies are already witnessing disruptions in their supply chains. The situation will get a lot worse if the measures to contain coronavirus fail. As per Nikkei, over 85% of Chinese small-and-medium-sized firms expect to run out of cash within three months. Worse, a third of these companies expects to run out of money within a month. These businesses employ 80% of China's workforce. So their bankruptcy can cause the entire Chinese financial system to implode. The repercussions of that will be felt across the globe and gold is the safest available option to hedge against it....The economic headwinds will force global central banks to slash interest rates; monetary easing will cause gold price to rally. Lower interest rates will likely not help the stock markets this time. If companies are unable to operate due to coronavirus, printing money and lowering interest rates will have little effect. Amid mounting global uncertainties, more investors appear to be turning to gold at the expense of stocks."

black swan Containing the Coronavirus: What's the Risk to the Global Economy? -Wharton
"The markets' movements mirror the uncertainty that prevails and persists not just in the U.S. but all over the world. Several weeks into the coronavirus outbreak that has brought the world's second largest economy to its knees, some of the most basic aspects of the virus remain unknown. It's not yet clear how widely beyond China COVID-19 will spread; this week, numbers of infected individuals have surged outside China. Still, exactly how it is transmitted, how easily, and how lethal it might be are aspects of this coronavirus that remain to be uncovered, according to University of Pennsylvania scientists. As the human toll mounts, so does the economic damage. The business realm, of course, tends to shudder in the face of uncertainty, and right now, with reports on the seriousness of the coronavirus evolving each day if not each hour, the eyes of commerce are on epidemiology. 'This has many economic implications,' says Wharton management professor Mauro Guillen. 'It has implications not just for China but for the entire world...Some observers describe it as a classic 'black swan' - a random event that is completely unpredictable....With moneyed Chinese travelers forced to stay home, European tourism has taken a hit. 'It's seen as on par with an earthquake, a situation of emergency,' Mattia Morandi, spokesman for Italy's ministry of culture and tourism, told The New York Times. Supply chains in the retail sector and others have been disrupted, factories in China have gone quiet, and passenger air travel has been curtailed....Economic disruption related to the coronavirus is expected to rob the world economy of growth for the first time since 2009, according to London-based research firm Capital Economics....'Many of us have been saying for years that it's only a matter of time,' says Penn professor of medicine and infectious disease specialist Harvey Rubin, referring to the arrival of a serious epidemic or pandemic. 'If there is some message here, it's that this is totally predictable.'"

The Jig Is Up! Covid-19 And The Defenestration Of The Central Bankers -Stockman/Zero Hedge
"Let it be said that historians will surely marvel - and at some point soon - about the grand delusion of the present era. Namely, the near universal belief that central bankers could print, peg and palaver the main street economy into unfailing expansion and ever rising prosperity and that there were essentially no macro-risks to soaring stock prices that their toolkits couldn't contain and counteract. That misbegotten belief had huge untoward consequences. It made economies brittle with too much leverage, financialization and speculation; and fragile with too few shock absorbers and insurance mechanism such as just-in-case inventories, second suppliers and local sources for physical production and back-up liquidity lines and balance sheet reserves for financial operations. Then came the Black Bat of 2020 with its toxic economic contagion. Racing with virtually lightening speed through an infinitely complex and deeply integrated global supply chain anchored in the Red Ponzi, the breakdown of economic activity is already proving that the central banks are not omnipotent after all. Just as they cannot print antibodies to stop the coronavirus disease, they can't print raw materials, intermediates, components and sub-assembly to restart broken supply chains....The predicate of central bank omnipotence should now be swept into the dustpan of history. Not only can the Fed not repair and revive disrupted supply chains, but it can't even accomplish the conventional tasks it has defined for itself....That is to say, by imperiously violating over the last 30 years every law of sound finance, honest money and common sense that the world had learned over the centuries, the central bankers have ended up creating a monster which will be bring on their own demise. And none too soon."

Chinese bank to destroy cash in areas hit by coronavirus -New York Post
"China's central bank will reportedly destroy some cash in areas hard-hit by the coronavirus to prevent contagion. People's Bank of China has ordered the return of paper currency in circulation at hospitals, animal markets and buses near the country's hot zones in order to destruct potentially-contaminated bills, the South China Morning Post reported. During the quarantine, the cash will be subjected to a disinfection process that involves ultraviolet light. 'Money from key virus-hit areas will be sanitized with ultraviolet rays or heated and locked up for at least 14 days, before it is distributed again,' PBOC deputy governor, Fan Yifei, said. Nearly 7.8 billion yuan, or $1.1 billion, was removed from circulation in the Guangdong province between Feb. 3 and 13, while another 3 billion yuan, $429 million, or was put back into circulation, South China Morning Post reported. The government has also halted the transfer of cash across provinces, as well as between cities most impacted by the epidemic, according to Bloomberg."

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2.26.20 - How Do You Price a Pandemic Vaccine?

Gold last traded at $1,644 an ounce. Silver at $17.86 an ounce.

NEWS SUMMARY: Precious metal prices steadied Wednesday after recent short-term profit taking. U.S. stocks tried to find some stability after two consecutive days of sharp selling.

A Few Questions for the Many Critics of the Gold Standard -Tamny/Real Clear Markets
"The fact that current Federal Reserve Board nominee Judy Shelton has long expressed support for a gold-defined dollar has propelled the 'gold standard' back into the economics discussion. Some who support a commodity anchor for the dollar side with Shelton, while all-too-many who disagree with Shelton have dismissed the notion of a gold-defined dollar as the stuff of witless cranks. Up front, count yours truly as an energetic supporter of Shelton and a return to a commodity definition for the dollar....Why gold? This is a question that's been answered by producers over millennia. Producers stressed stability of value when it came to money...Money defined in terms of gold would be heavily circulated precisely because the definer of it was 'least influenced by any of the causes that produce fluctuations in value.'....Stated simply, supporters of a gold standard, commodity standard, or currency stability more broadly seek just that given our view that it elevates money to its highest purpose as a facilitator of the exchange and investment that pushes people and physical resources to their highest use....Stable, credible currencies are logically the most 'supplied' or circulated currencies, while floating, volatile, uncertain currencies can rarely be found in the marketplace....Which leads to the questions for gold-standard critics: 1. Why money? In particular, do gold-standard critics believe money is a medium of exchange? If no, what is money? 2. If yes, do critics agree that underlying monetary exchanges is the exchange of goods and services for goods and services? 3. If money largely exists to facilitate exchange, why do gold-standard critics think that gold emerged globally in the marketplace of currencies? 4. If gold is a past tense concept, as in if it is no longer necessary as an anchor for currencies, why were currency trading markets rather non-existent before 1973? And then why is currency trading a $5 trillion/day industry today? In short, if gold is some barbarous relic, why all the trading among currencies meant to mitigate their modern instability; instability that is plainly a consequence of a lack of a commodity anchor?"

coronavirus C.D.C. Tells Americans to Prepare for Coronavirus Outbreak -New York Times
"The coronavirus almost certainly will begin spreading in communities in the United States, and Americans should begin preparations now, officials at the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention said on Tuesday. 'It's not so much of a question of if this will happen anymore but rather more of a question of exactly when this will happen,' Dr. Nancy Messonnier, director of the National Center for Immunization and Respiratory Diseases, said in a news briefing. The news caps weeks of fear that the coronavirus spreading from China may become a pandemic, disrupting the global economy and political landscape in ways that are difficult to forecast. Iran, South Korea and Italy are now grappling with clusters of infection, even as the epidemic in China's Hubei Province seems to be slowing....Officials at the C.D.C. said they did not know whether spread of the disease to the United States would be mild or severe. But Americans should be ready for a significant disruption to their daily lives, she added. 'We are asking the American public to prepare for the expectation that this might be bad,' Dr. Messonnier said....'This is an unprecedented potentially severe health challenge globally,' Alex M. Azar II, the health and human services secretary, told a Senate subcommittee....There are persistent doubts about the accuracy of infection figures reported by China's government, raising the possibility that the true magnitude of the outbreak remains underreported."

How Do You Price a Pandemic? -Kolchinsky/City Journal
"The pandemic unfolding in China makes a compelling context for the drug-pricing debate in Washington, in which one side insists that we don't need innovation if patients can't afford it, implying that we have better things to spend our money on than supposedly overpriced medicines. Do Americans really believe that, though - especially under current circumstances?....What the Wuhan crisis shows is that we are all patients with a common symptom - fear, which many are suffering from now over the prospect of a deadly virus, COVID-19, terrorizing communities and families. Fear comes with its own costs, as the global economy is already discovering, with travel bans and quarantines. A treatment or vaccine would ease our minds, even if most of us don't wind up using it. How should we price the value of peace of mind? Health economists don't know. Reports suggest that the coronavirus kills 2 percent of those whom it infects, though its mortality rate may be lower than that - more like 0.5 percent to 1 percent. Still, if you have 60 people in your circle - colleagues, friends, family members - then a 0.5 percent mortality rate means that there's a 25 percent chance that one of those people will die of coronavirus...It's hardly irrational, then, to think about this virus, to talk about it and worry about it - and yes, to start washing our hands for the recommended 20 seconds. But that's not all we can do. Most people don't realize that America has been preparing for Wuhan for decades...More than two dozen companies are busy applying their tools to the challenge of stopping COVID-19....Considering how important it is to pay for the novel medicines that keep our biotechnology sector up and running, it's wrong to ask the vulnerable, sick, and poor among us to pay for the infrastructure that brings all of us peace of mind. So Congress and other policymakers should beware of reformers seeking to define 'fair' prices for pandemic vaccines or any other drug in our growing armamentarium...The surest way to discourage scientists and investors is by undervaluing their solutions. We'll appear to have saved some money, but we'll pay with diminished peace of mind."

Rivals Focus on Sanders at South Carolina Debate -Wall Street Journal
"Sen. Bernie Sanders bore the brunt of the attacks from his presidential rivals during a cacophonous debate that highlighted his rival candidates' anxiety over the possibility of a self-described democratic socialist facing President Trump in November. Michael Bloomberg, the former New York City mayor, also endured several jabs Tuesday night as the other candidates on stage in Charleston, S.C., sought to distinguish themselves in what is likely to be their last national appearance before two defining voting days that may force some to withdraw. 'We are looking at a party that has decided that we're either going to support someone who is a democratic socialist or somebody who has a long history of being a Republican,' billionaire activist Tom Steyer said, referring to Messrs. Sanders and Bloomberg. 'If we cannot pull this party together, if we go to one of those extremes, we take a terrible risk of re-electing Donald Trump,' he added later....The urgency of the moment - days ahead of the South Carolina primary and a week from the delegate-rich Super Tuesday contests - was clear as the candidates jockeyed for airtime by interrupting, insulting and provoking one another, often speaking over their time limits and their rival candidates. Mr. Sanders, coming off his resounding win in Nevada last week that cemented him as the front-runner, heightened the stakes for the others on the stage....The candidates did agree on one thing: Mr. Trump needed to take the threat of the coronavirus more seriously. Federal health authorities said Tuesday they expect a wider spread of the coronavirus in the U.S. and are preparing for a potential pandemic."

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2.25.20 - Will Gold Prices Hit $2,020/oz. in 2020?

Gold last traded at $1,651 an ounce. Silver at $18.22 an ounce.

NEWS SUMMARY: Precious metal prices held most of the previous day's gains Tuesday in cautious trading. U.S. stocks extended losses amid global growth fears following the market's worst day in two years.

Gold May Hit $2,020 In 2020 -Seeking Alpha
"It didn't seem possible this time last year but, yes, $2020 gold is no longer a 'pie in the sky' number. The adage 'good as gold' actually means something again. Gold is currently the strongest commodity on the board with the exception of palladium. That gold is rallying in the face of a surging dollar is even more impressive. Gold's break over new highs means it's within shouting distance of our next upside objective of $1,650 per ounce...We are adding a new $1,950 per ounce objective to our existing $1,650 and $1,775 targets...Five Fundamental Factors Power the Bull Market in Gold; 1) Gold is acting like money again. 2) Central banks are buying a lot of gold. 3) Low and negative interest rates. 4) Gold has a history of being a hedge against global chaos. 5) Demand from low-priced ETFs is soaring."

coronavirus Making Sense of Stocks' Rude Awakening to Virus Scare -Wall Street Journal
"Did stocks tank on Monday because they were finally noticing danger signs that the bond market has been screaming about for weeks? Or did equities just react in a reasonable way to the rapid spread of Covid-19 in South Korea and Italy over the weekend? The answer matters because overexuberant shares tend to fall further and faster than they otherwise would. That means the virus-induced stock selloff could turn into a nasty recoupling if there was an irrational divergence between bonds and the stock market....Consider three pieces of evidence. First, many sectors of the market did precisely what one would expect. Even before Monday's plunge, the energy sector was down 8.7% including dividends from Jan. 20, the day human-to-human transmission of the new coronavirus was confirmed....The second piece of evidence: duration. The longer in the future that profits are likely, the more sensitive a stock should be to bond yields....Finally, the credit markets have been telling the same story as the equity markets: an expectation of a contained outbreak....Put it all together and it looks like investors shifted over the weekend from a belief in an economy weakened a bit by coronavirus problems in China to growing concern about a much more serious global problem. This really matters, both for human health and stock prices. But it is a reasonable response to the news about a hard-to-predict viral outbreak."

Harvard Professor Says 40-70% Of People Worldwide Will Be Infected With Covid-19 -Zero Hedge
"Harvard epidemiology professor Marc Lipsitch says that the coronavirus will not be containable and that 40-70 of people worldwide will be infected. In an article entitled You're Likely to Get the Coronavirus, the Atlantic explains how the coronavirus is particularly dangerous because it may cause cause no symptoms at all in many carriers of the infection....The professor clarifies that this doesn't mean all of those victims will become seriously ill and that 'many will have mild disease, or may be asymptomatic.' Lipsitch's 'very, very rough' estimate (banking on 'multiple assumptions piled on top of each other') was that 100 or 200 people in the U.S. were infected. That's all it would take to seed the disease widely. (so far 35 cases confirmed in the U.S.)....Meanwhile, a World Health Organization adviser says that coronavirus could be the widely feared 'Disease X' that experts have been warning about for years."

Desperate to stop virus' spread, countries limit travel -Associated Press
"Police manned checkpoints in quarantined towns, guests were confined to their rooms in a hotel in the Canary Islands, governments issued travel warnings and more flights were suspended Tuesday as officials desperately sought to stop the seemingly inevitable spread of a new virus. Clusters of the illness continued to balloon outside mainland China, fueling apprehension across the globe that was reflected in sagging financial markets. The crisis pushed into areas seen as among the worst-equipped to deal with an outbreak as well as some of the world's richest nations, including South Korea and Italy. As it proliferates, the virus is bringing a sense of urgency for local officials determined to contain it but often unsure how....In Italy's north, where more than 200 people were sickened, a dozen towns were sealed off and police wearing face masks patrolled....Even in places where no cases have sprouted up, leaders kept a wary eye, such as Denmark, where two former military barracks were being prepared as quarantine centers. Still, uncertainty remained about how to effectively limit the epidemic....China reported 508 new cases and another 71 deaths, 68 of them in the central city of Wuhan, where the epidemic was first detected in December. The updates bring mainland China's totals to 77,658 cases and 2,663 deaths. But while China remained home to the vast majority of the world's cases, the world's attention increasingly moved to where the outbreak would spread next. Iran was eyed as a source for new transmissions in the Middle East, including in Iraq, Kuwait and Oman, which were grappling with the spread past their borders."

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2.24.20 - Gold Price Soars as Virus Spreads

Gold last traded at $1,675 an ounce. Silver at $18.83 an ounce.

NEWS SUMMARY: Precious metal prices shot up Monday on safe-haven buying. U.S. stocks tumbled worldwide as the number of coronavirus cases outside China surged, stoking fears of a prolonged global economic slowdown from the virus spreading.

Gold price soars as virus spreads -Kitco
"Gold prices are sharply higher early Monday not only because investors are seeking safe havens as the coronavirus keeps spreading around the world, but also because they are starting to factor in the potential for central-bank rate cuts to offset any economic damage from the outbreak, analysts said...Gold appears to be on the verge of going parabolic - rising roughly $100 in the last week....'Concerns about the Covid-19 virus, which is now spreading rapidly in countries such as Italy and South Korea, are driving up risk aversion among market participants and allowing gold to soar higher and higher,' said Daniel Briesemann, analyst with Commerzbank....'Right now, because of the spread of the coronavirus into different cities, people are starting to panic,. said Phil Flynn, senior market analyst at Price Futures Group. 'They are going into a full-court press into gold...as concerns are growing that people see the virus potentially damaging economies and economic growth around the globe. There are concerns that countries will have lower interest rates, thereby devaluing their currencies. That is making gold an attractive, safe haven.'....The virus has killed more than 2,400 people and infected more than 75,000 in China and has been spreading to other countries...The World Health Organization reported more than 1,400 cases in 28 countries outside of China."

stocks U.S. Stocks Slide as Coronavirus Cases Mount Outside Asia -Wall Street Journal
"Global stocks and oil prices fell sharply Monday, spurred by the emergence of fresh coronavirus outbreaks in several countries outside of China. The Dow Jones Industrial Average tumbled more than 800 points, or 2.8%, shortly after the U.S. market opened, on track for a third consecutive session of losses. The drop sets the blue-chip index on track for its biggest decline in six months. The S&P 500 also declined 90 points, or 2.7%, with all 11 sectors posting declines. The tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite fell the furthest, dropping 3.2%. Investors stepped up their flight to haven assets, pushing gold prices up 1.7% to $1,678 a troy ounce...'The rally of haven assets such as gold reflects surging demand for safety during a time of uncertainty. Things will probably get worse before it gets better,' said CMC Markets analyst Margaret Yang. Meanwhile, Brent crude dropped 4.5% to $55.34 a barrel. Oil prices have declined in recent weeks on investors' concerns that the viral outbreak would sap demand for crude....The Group of 20 major economies warned Sunday that viral outbreak poses a serious risk to the global economy as new cases flared outside of China, prompting concerns about dangerous new pockets of infection in places as far as Iran and Italy. The contagion, which has curtailed Chinese manufacturing, exports and consumption this year, is threatening to dampen global growth as factories world-wide depend on a supply chain tethered to China for many intermediate and finished goods...costing the world up to $1 trillion in lost output."

'Lots of troubles coming' from too much 'wretched excess' -Munger/CNBC
"Charlie Munger, vice chairman of Berkshire Hathaway and Warren Buffett's longtime business partner, issued a dire warning about the future last Wednesday. 'I think there are lots of troubles coming,' he said at the Los Angeles-based Daily Journal annual shareholders meeting. 'There's too much wretched excess' Munger - who chairs the publisher - highlighted how much risk investors are taking when investing, particularly in China....In the U.S. alone, investors face risks ranging from the coronavirus' impact on the economy to political uncertainty from the upcoming presidential election....'It's ridiculous,' Munger said, noting EBITDA - which is short for earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortization - does not accurately reflect how much money a company makes, unlike traditional earnings. 'Think of the basic intellectual dishonesty that comes when you start talking about adjusted EBITDA. You're almost announcing you're a flake.'....Investors of all stripes look forward to Munger's annual address since because of the wisdom he shares. Munger is also considered to be one of the best investors and business thinkers ever."

Why Sanders Will Probably Win the Nomination -Brooks/New York Times
"Successful presidential candidates are mythmakers. They don't just tell a story. They tell a story that helps people make meaning out of the current moment; that divides people into heroes and villains; that names a central challenge and explains why they are the perfect person to meet it. In 2016 Donald Trump told a successful myth: The coastal elites are greedy, stupid people who have mismanaged the country, undermined our values and changed the face of our society. Trump's followers don't merely believe that myth. They inhabit it. It shapes how they see the world, how they put people into this category or that category. Trump can get his facts wrong as long as he gets his myth right. Bernie Sanders is also telling a successful myth: The corporate and Wall Street elites are rapacious monsters who hoard the nation's wealth and oppress working families...It is also a very compelling us vs. them worldview that resonates with a lot of people. When you're inside the Sanders myth, you see the world through the Bernie lens....My takeaway from last Wednesday's hellaciously entertaining Democratic debate is that Sanders is the only candidate telling a successful myth....Everywhere I go I see a process that is the opposite of group vs. group war...I see a great yearning for solidarity, an eagerness to come together and make practical change. These gathering efforts are hampered by rippers at the national level who stoke rage and fear and tell friend/enemy stories. These efforts are hampered by men like Sanders and Trump....In the gathering myth, the heroes have traits Trump and Sanders lack: open-mindedness, flexibility, listening skills, team-building skills and basic human warmth. In this saga, leaders are measured by their ability to expand relationships, not wall them off. The gathering myth is an alternative myth - one that has the advantage of being true."

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2.21.20 - U.S. Warns Beijing on Trade Deal

Gold last traded at $1,651 an ounce. Silver at $18.52 an ounce.

NEWS SUMMARY: Precious metal prices zoomed to fresh 7-year highs Friday on safe-haven buying. U.S. stocks fell sharply after the number of new coronavirus cases escalated, fueling worries over a pronounced global economic slowdown.

U.S. Stocks Drop on Coronavirus's Economic Impact -Wall Street Journal
"Stocks and Treasury yields dropped Friday as precious metals rallied on early signs of the coronavirus outbreak curtailing economic growth in some markets. U.S. stocks are on track for declines this week, while traditionally safer assets like gold and government bonds are headed toward gains. The concurrent gains in precious metals and government bonds this year have highlighted the jitters that have percolated markets even as major U.S. indexes are sitting close to their records. Typically, investors ditch haven assets like gold and government bonds as stocks crest to fresh highs. Some analysts have attributed the rush for haven assets to the viral outbreak. 'If we are in an environment when we will see a lower-than-expected growth on the back of coronavirus, this will increase demand for low-risk assets,' said Andrey Kuznetsov, a senior credit portfolio manager at Hermes Investment Management. Investors may be underestimating the impact of the outbreak on U.S. companies' earnings as economic activity slows in China and tourism takes a hit, Goldman Sachs Group warned. More than 75,000 people have been diagnosed with coronavirus, and over 2,000 have died globally. The worries about the coronavirus come as manufacturing data has continued to disappoint....'In the grand scheme of things, we kind of read this as the calm before the storm,' said Aila Mihr, a senior analyst at Danske Bank Research. 'We don't think we have seen the worst yet.'"

gold Gold's perfect storm is upon us -Kitco
"There is an old saying on Wall Street that the market is driven by just two emotions: fear and greed. While general equity investment decisions are driven by fear to the downside and greed (the current market emotion) to the upside, the gold price has the ability to move strongly to the upside by either emotion. And when the safe-haven metal is being driven higher during an atmosphere of both greed and fear, an extended move can end in parabolic fashion. With global growth stabilization being of high concern to investors due to the coronavirus (COVID-19) outbreak in China, the fear component has gold futures breaking out of its 6-month consolidation towards its next target at $1700 as new cases of people contracting the virus continues to swell, and the death toll grows. Chinese tourism, which has been a mainstay throughout the world, has come to an abrupt end as its people have been blocked from leaving the country. Nearly half of China's population (more than 780 million people) are currently living under various forms of travel restrictions and the virus has caused scores of businesses to temporarily shutter stores or reduce hours....Gold's biggest ally has been falling interest rates, both in the U.S. and globally, which have also increased bullion's appeal as a hedge against further global economic slowdown. Along with the fear-based buying in the safe-haven mental, continued lower rates suggest that investors are pessimistic about global growth prospects in the near-term, which in turn bolsters gold's appeal as an alternative to riskier equities....Therefore, we have the perfect storm brewing for gold....Due to the factors mentioned, the recent breakout could further exacerbate the bullish momentum in the safe-haven metal which could head for a climax to this powerful up-leg in the US$1,800 range within the next few months."

White House Warns Beijing: 'We Still Expect You To Honor Your Trade Deal Commitments' -Zero Hedge
"A Chinese official recently suggested that Beijing might need some 'wiggle room' to fulfill its commitments under the 'Phase 1' trade deal. Now, the Treasury Department is hinting that this might not be an option, and that the US expects the Chinese to honor their commitments. Citing comments from an anonymous 'senior Treasury official' (possibly Mnuchin himself), Reuters reports that the US government expects China to honor its commitments, to which it agreed late last year, around the same time that the virus first emerged in Wuhan. The report arrives just days after the IMF confirmed that the epidemic had already disrupted economic growth in China, and that it could derail already-fragile global growth if it continues to worsen and spread....As the Washington Post reminds us, China's agricultural commitments alone in the Phase 1 deal were pretty specific: Beijing agreed to buy an additional $32 billion over the first two years, $12.5 billion over the $24 billion baseline in 2020, and $19.5 billion over that same baseline in 2021....However, almost as soon as the deal was signed, economists and analysts complained loudly that the deal was little more than a PR stunt, and that there was no way Beijing would be able to guarantee such hefty purchases....One would think, with the election coming up in November and Beijing desperate to guarantee higher economic growth, that it's now more important than ever that the deal holds."

Your Pessimism Is Ridiculously Inaccurate -Boudreaux/AIER
"Because its denial is incessantly repeated, the following truth must be incessantly restated: we ordinary Americans are fabulously rich and getting richer. The irony is that we are so very materially prosperous - with a prosperity that is shared by nearly all Americans - that we take our happy condition for granted...Our material prosperity, although historically unprecedented, is now so commonplace that, for us Americans in 2020, this prosperity appears to be the natural state of the world...But of course widespread material prosperity doesn't just happen. It didn't happen for 99.9 percent of human existence. The prosperity that we all today enjoy must be not only created but, also, continually recreated. Entrepreneurs must be inspired to innovate. Investors must be motivated to take risks. Countless individuals must have incentives to save, to work hard, to daily cooperate productively with people whom they do not know, and to avoid using scarce resources wastefully. The real measure of our prosperity is in what, for us, is mundane: running drinkable water over a wide range of temperatures, hard roofs and floors, refrigeration, artificial lighting, inexpensive garments and bedding made with machine-woven cloth that withstands being cleaned with powerful inexpensive detergents in powerful affordable machines, widespread literacy, mastery at using the electromagnetic spectrum, liability insurance for drivers and for homeowners, well-stocked supermarkets, fresh blueberries in New York in January, ice cream in New Orleans in July, air travel, automobiles, air-conditioning, aspirin, antibiotics...Just once, I want to hear someone who worries about climate change acknowledge that we today are fortunate to be able to worry about climate change. Just once, I'd love to encounter a politician or professor who wags his finger angrily at the 'uneven distribution' of income or wealth note that any randomly chosen ordinary person in the United States today is likely to be materially far richer - in very many ways - than was the richest American of a mere century ago...The blinkered focus on problems (real and only apparent) divorced from the larger context of the economy's successes and of Americans' stupendous prosperity - gives us a dangerously inaccurate sense of the state of the economy and of ordinary men's and women's relationship to it."

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2.20.20 - Why Gold is Headed for 7-Yr High

Gold last traded at $1,616 an ounce. Silver at $18.33 an ounce.

NEWS SUMMARY: Precious metal prices extended gains Thursday on safe-haven buying. U.S. stocks fell sharply after a Fed official poured cold water on market expectations for easier monetary policy.

Why gold prices topped $1,600 and may soon hit a more than 7-year high -Marketwatch
"Gold prices surpassed $1,600 an ounce on Tuesday and analysts believe the precious metal has the fuel it needs to climb to its highest level in more than seven years. Gold's big move on Tuesday 'isn't due to worries over a greater economic fallout from the coronavirus, but rather in anticipation of the flood of central bank stimulus that is all but guaranteed by the effects to date,' said Brien Lundin, editor of Gold Newsletter. The sharp rise for gold comes as the World Health Organization reported on Tuesday 73,332 confirmed cases of COVID-19, the new coronavirus that was first identified late last year in Wuhan, China....'From a technical standpoint, an inverted head-and-shoulders pattern in gold is pointing toward a target of $1,665, which I think is easily achievable from a fundamental standpoint as well,' he added."

swans Gold & 'The White Swans Of 2020' -Roubini/Zero Hedge
"In my 2010 book, Crisis Economics, I defined financial crises not as the 'black swan' events that Nassim Nicholas Taleb described in his eponymous bestseller, but as 'white swans.' According to Taleb, black swans are events that emerge unpredictably, like a tornado. But I argued that financial crises, at least, are more like hurricanes: they are the predictable result of built-up economic and financial vulnerabilities and policy mistakes. There are times when we should expect the system to reach a tipping point - the -Minsky Moment' - when a boom and a bubble turn into a crash and a bust. Such events are not about the 'unknown unknowns,' but rather the 'known unknowns.'....By next year, the US-China conflict could have escalated from a cold war to a near-hot one. A Chinese regime and economy severely damaged by the COVID-19 crisis and facing restless masses will need an external scapegoat, and will likely set its sights on Taiwan, Hong Kong, Vietnam, and US naval positions in the East and South China Seas; confrontation could creep into escalating military accidents. It could also pursue the financial 'nuclear option' of dumping its holdings of US Treasury bonds if escalation does take place....China could diversify its reserves by converting them into another liquid asset that is less vulnerable to US primary or secondary sanctions, namely gold. Indeed, both China and Russia have been stockpiling gold reserves (overtly and covertly), which explains the 30% spike in gold prices since early 2019. In a sell-off scenario, the capital gains on gold would compensate for any loss incurred from dumping US Treasuries....As of early 2020, this is where we stand: the US and Iran have already had a military confrontation that will likely soon escalate; China is in the grip of a viral outbreak that could become a global pandemic; cyberwarfare is ongoing; major holders of US Treasuries are pursuing diversification strategies; the Democratic presidential primary is exposing rifts in the opposition to Trump and already casting doubt on vote-counting processes; rivalries between the US and four revisionist powers are escalating; and the real-world costs of climate change and other environmental trends are mounting. This list is hardly exhaustive, but it points to what one can reasonably expect for 2020. Financial markets, meanwhile, remain blissfully in denial of the risks, convinced that a calm if not happy year awaits major economies and global markets."

Democrats Prepare for the Big Test -Rove/Wall Street Journal
"Presidential nomination candidates are continually tested. But not all tests are graded equally. The ones coming up in Nevada this Saturday, South Carolina the next, and 14 other states plus American Samoa on Super Tuesday, March 3, could be enough to determine the Democratic nominee and the next occupant of the Oval Office. The most important test will be in South Carolina. Will black Democrats send Joe Biden roaring into Super Tuesday with a win, or doom his candidacy by defecting? Mike Bloomberg's strategy - skipping the first four contests and burying the competition under a mountain of cash come Super Tuesday - will also be tested. The former New York mayor's team has warned other moderate candidates that by staying in the race, they'll 'propel Sanders to a seemingly insurmountable delegate lead.' Mr. Bloomberg has reason to worry: After spending more than $400 million on advertising, he's at only 16.5% and second place in California in the RealClearPolitics polling average, 11.7% and fourth in Texas, and 17.3% and third in North Carolina....Then there's the test of the Democratic field's ability to attract independents. On Super Tuesday, eight states - Alabama, Arkansas, Minnesota, Tennessee, Texas, Utah, Vermont and Virginia - and American Samoa will have open contests: Anyone can participate, even if previously affiliated with another party. A further five - California, Colorado, Massachusetts, Oklahoma and North Carolina - have mixed primaries in which some independents can vote in the Democratic contest....It's possible all that advertising Mr. Bloomberg has run will draw more independents and consolidate support. Or maybe this contest, by tilting to the left, is turning off independents without uniting Democrats. We'll know a lot more the first Wednesday morning in March."

Jeff Bezos Delivers $10 Billion Windfall To Climate Alarmists -Issues & Insights
"When it comes to virtue signaling, it will be tough to top Jeff Bezos, who has pledged to put $10 billion - nearly 8% - of his net worth to help 'save Earth.' He'd be better off investing that money in his own company, which has probably done more to reduce CO2 emissions than the do-gooders lining up for his handouts ever will. We don't have anything against private charity. It's the backbone of this nation. And Bezos is free to spend his wealth however he wants. But he's missing an opportunity to educate the public about how the free market - and his own company - are doing far more to 'save Earth' than he will giving his money away to embolden 'collective action.' Amazon's success reduced CO2 emissions simply because it proved to be a more efficient way to deliver goods. Environmentalists complain about how much carbon Amazon emits - pointing to the company's report that it emitted 44.4 million metric tons of CO2 in 2018. What they don't say is that this is a large net reduction from what would have happened if Amazon shoppers had to drive around to retail outlets to get what they wanted. Research carried out at MIT found that online shopping 'is the most environmentally friendly option in a wide range of scenarios.'....It's because of the private sector's relentless push for greater efficiency that overall CO2 emissions in the U.S. dropped 14% from 2005 to 2017, according to the EPA - despite the fact that the U.S. economy grew by 21% and the U.S. population climbed by 29 million....The problem with Bezos' $10 billion pledge is that he completely ignores all of this, and treats the private sector as something to be reined in by 'global organizations.' This is to say nothing, of course, of the fact that Bezos is also giving climate alarmists still more ammunition to make their dubious 'end of the world' claims. Or the fact that $10 billion might fund, say, a cure for cancer or Alzheimer's, or feed millions of starving people, or "¦ well, you get the idea."

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2.19.20 - Citi Sees Gold Topping $2,000/oz.

Gold last traded at $1,611 an ounce. Silver at $18.30 an ounce.

NEWS SUMMARY: Precious metal prices rose Wednesday on safe-haven buying amid global economic worries. U.S. stocks rose as tech shares outperformed while investors continued to weigh the coronavirus's impact on the global economy.

Will the Coronavirus Cause a Recession? -New York Times
"The rapid spread of the coronavirus is a tough blow for a world economy that seemed on the cusp of a modest revival...Whatever the trajectory of the epidemic, this is a moment of serious reckoning for China's economy. Hard as it is to envision, the world's second-largest economy is coming to a near standstill. Infections and fatalities are mounting. Many of my acquaintances and friends in China tell me they are increasingly concerned about the government's ability to control the epidemic and its economic fallout. Big urban manufacturing and financial centers remain on at least partial lockdown, migrant laborers are unable to return to work, and factories are unable to get raw materials or ship their goods out reliably. Consumption has also been cut drastically, as people mostly stay indoors. Service industries such as tourism and restaurants are being hit especially hard....The coronavirus epidemic might have only a limited immediate impact on the U.S. economy, but by creating further uncertainty and disrupting supply chains in Asia, it will add to the long list of factors likely to hold back U.S. and global growth in 2020...A worldwide recession is not yet on the cards but, at a minimum, the added uncertainty will restrain investment and productivity, which already looked anemic in all major economies....Trust in information provided by the government and its competence to manage these problems are under question, both domestically and abroad."

gold Citi sees gold topping $2,000 in next 12 to 24 months -CNBC
"As the record bull market stretches on, and as the coronavirus outbreak incites fears of a potential slowdown in global growth, gold could be a way for investors to hedge risks to the downside, Citi said Wednesday. The firm believes market jitters will prompt investors to pile into the so-called safe haven asset, pushing gold prices to $2,000 per ounce in the next 12 to 24 months. 'Gold should perform as a convex macro asset market hedge, resilient during ongoing risk market rallies but a better hedge during sell-offs and vol spikes,' the analysts led by Ed Morse said. On Tuesday, gold settled above the $1,600 mark for the first time since April 2013, as investors reacted to Apple's announcement that it would miss quarterly revenue forecasts thanks to constrained worldwide supply of iPhones, as well as lower Chinese demand stemming from the virus outbreak. Shorter-term, Citi lifted its six-to-12 month target on gold to $1,700 per ounce. Morse said that the bullish activity in gold this year indicates growing investor concern over where we are in the business cycle, as well as ongoing uncertainties surrounding the U.S.-China trade war and the upcoming U.S. election."

Mike Bloomberg Could Pull It Off -Noonan/Wall Street Journal
"We are immersed in a freakish and confounding political era. Anything can happen. Surprise is built in. Guy on a lark takes an escalator ride down to a rally and the system is changed forever. 'Expect the unexpected.' Take Mike Bloomberg seriously.... It's not too soon, three months in, to call his campaign clever and capable. If he got the nomination Democrats would likely suffer a peeling off of the progressive left....There's the money, Bloomberg's solid rocket booster. People say he could spend $1 billion, maybe $2 billion. He'd spend more if he has to....His strengths: resources, relationships and a real biography. For 12 years he was mayor of New York. He governed the ungovernable city that is a microcosm of the world....He is what Mr. Trump claimed to be and probably wishes he were. And he isn't afraid of the president. Whatever he says, Mr. Trump, who respects money more than anything, would be afraid of him. When Mr. Biden leaves the race, where will his supporters - many of whom feel increasingly outside the party they grew up in - go? Quite possibly Bloomberg....His challenges? Elitist, billionaire, charmless. 'He's not one of us.' 'Hide your soda, the nanny is coming.' He has to perform in debates, where he'll be the target of the other candidates' focused and sincere resentment...But he's got a big army that can grow and advance as opportunity presents. If the race goes a long time he can last a long time....Take Mr. Bloomberg seriously. Uphill, but he could pull this off."

U.S. Senators Bash Gold during Fed Confirmation Hearings -FX Street
"The U.S. Senate weighed the issue of pegging the currency to a gold standard last week. Not surprisingly, the mere mention of gold ruffled the feathers of some Senators....Gold remains the ultimate money, as former Federal Reserve chairman Alan Greenspan has acknowledged. And President Trump's nominee to an open seat on the Fed Board of Governors would perhaps help revive gold's standing in the monetary system. But first she has to win approval by the U.S. Senate. Prospective Fed policymaker Judy Shelton faced a difficult task in trying to explain her unconventional views to Senators who are steeped in conventional thinking when it comes to monetary policy. A sore spot for many of her Senate interrogators was Shelton's history of supporting a gold standard. Reactions on both sides of the aisle ranged from confusion to concern to hostility....The Fed will probably never enact any restraints on itself when it comes to its abilities to create currency out of thin air....The problem is the central banking system itself. As long as interest rates and inflation targets are centrally planned, the central planners will prevent true market discovery and innovation from taking place as they rig prices and prop up malinvestment within the 'too big to fail' banking system."

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2.18.20 - Gov't Agents Seize $181k from Employee, Won't Give it Back

Gold last traded at $1,604 an ounce. Silver at $18.16 an ounce.

NEWS SUMMARY: Precious metal prices rose sharply Monday on safe haven buying. U.S. stocks fell for a third day as a forecast warning from Apple stoked worries over the coronavirus's impact on corporate profits and the global economy.

Gold nears $1,600/oz on coronavirus fears -FX Street
"Renewed fears around the Chinese coronavirus (COVID-19) have been supporting the demand for the safe haven metal in past hours, taking the ounce troy to levels just shy of the key $1,600 mark. Prices of the yellow metal are extending the monthly rally, posting gains for the second consecutive week and at the same time extending the rebound from lows around $1,547 recorded on February 5th. Indeed, safer assets (like gold and bonds) saw their demand intensified on Tuesday in response to re-emerging coronavirus fears, lifting prices of the precious metal to fresh multi-week highs near the $1,600 mark and depressing yields of the US 10-year reference....As of writing Gold is gaining 0.76% at $1,592.58 and a breakout of $1,593.90 (monthly high Feb.3) would expose $1,600 (psychological level) and then $1,611.34 (2020 high Jan.8)."

government Government agents seized $181,500 in cash at airport and won't give it back -FOX 5 New York
"A Florida trucking company is suing two federal agencies, saying agents seized $181,500 in cash at Tampa International Airport and won't give it back....The lawsuit claims that in September, the company gave employee Boris Nulman $191,500 and a plane ticket to Cleveland to purchase several big trucks. When the cash in Nulman's carry-on bag went through a Transportation Security Administration scanner, the agents pulled it aside for an inspection. Nulman was later allowed to leave, but only with $10,000, according to the lawsuit filed in the U.S. District Court for the Middle District of Florida. He never went to Cleveland to buy the trucks. The lawsuit says an agent gave Nulman a receipt to document the $181,500, but the federal agencies now say only $159,950 was confiscated. That's $21,550 less than what the company says was seized. 'This is legitimate money,' Rozenberg said.'There is nothing dirty about this. We have evidence to show we took this out of our business account. Something is fishy here.'....A customs official replied in a letter weeks later, saying the agency was seizing $159,950 because it was proceeds from 'specified unlawful activity' such as the manufacture, sale or distribution of a controlled substance. The customs letter didn't detail the discrepancy over the amount, according to the newspaper. The government hasn't provided any reason it believes the money came from illegal activities. The lawsuit contends that using cash to purchase big rigs is a common industry practice....The money seizure is starting to hurt the firm, he said. 'They are treating us like criminals,' said Rozenberg. 'This does not make any sense.'"

Coronavirus Exposes Businesses' Dependency on China -Wall Street Journal
"As the new coronavirus continues to spread in China, killing more than 1,800, cities have been locked down, logistics and the movements of people hampered, and consumer demand dented, leaving companies - both Chinese and foreign - grappling to resume business operations. In a sign of how devastating the economic impact is from the current situation, China's State Council on Tuesday called on regions with lower risk from the virus to resume full production....Meanwhile in the U.S., Apple Inc. became the first major American company to say it won't meet its revenue projections for the current quarter because of the coronavirus outbreak. It said the epidemic had both limited iPhone production for world-wide sales and curtailed demand for its products in China. Apple assembles most of its products, including the iPhone, in China through contract manufacturers like Foxconn Technology Group. 'I think many companies have realized their complete dependence on China. If the country goes down like this, it is going to really hamper' their business, said Jorg Wuttke, president of the European Chamber of Commerce in China. Many companies will now look to diversify, he said in a briefing on Tuesday, 'seeing that not all eggs are in one basket.'....Apple, which had closed all of its 42 retail stores in China earlier this month as the virus outbreak worsened, now has seven stores back open, with shorter hours of operation, including all five stores in Beijing and two in Shanghai, an Apple spokeswoman said. The remaining 35 stores in mainland China are closed."

Technology is poised to upend America's property market -The Economist
"Real estate is the biggest asset market in the world. The value of residential property in America - at around $34trn - rivals the market capitalization of all listed American companies. Throw in commercial and retail property, together worth around $16trn, and its value easily eclipses that of public firms. For decades the market has been characterized by low volumes and extortionate transaction costs. Just 7% of American homes change hands each year. Homeowners traded property worth $1.5trn in America in 2019, forking over some $75bn in commission to agents, or around 0.4% of GDP....In the 1950s, 20% of households in a county moved each year. Today 9% do. This antiquated model is on the verge of being disrupted. In America rules on commissions and data-sharing have so far kept fees higher than in other rich countries. But now regulators and courts are considering again whether practices in the real-estate industry are anticompetitive. Technology promises to make moving home quicker, easier and cheaper. As recently as 2012 venture capitalists invested just tens of millions of dollars in property technology, or 'prop tech', each year. By 2019 that had climbed to $6bn. The four biggest prop-tech firms, Compass, Opendoor, Redfin and Zillow, have a combined valuation of $23bn....Innovations are nibbling away at the many tasks that estate agents do. Redfin and Opendoor use remote electronic locks, which can let buyers into a home by themselves....But not all of the biggest prop-tech companies in America are betting on estate agents becoming redundant. Redfin's focus is on lowering agents' costs. Sellers who list their home with Redfin pay commission as low as 1%, instead of the usual 3%....Lower fees, therefore, need not mean a big hit to agents' pockets. They might boost productivity. They could encourage people to move house more often, offsetting the fall in fee rates. Clients, meanwhile, would undoubtedly benefit."

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2.14.20 - U.S. Military Prepping for Coronavirus

Gold last traded at $1,586 an ounce. Silver at $17.73 an ounce.

NEWS SUMMARY: Precious metal prices extended gains Friday on safe-haven buying amid rising economic uncertainty. U.S. stocks traded near flatline as Wall Street digested the release of disappointing consumer data.

Gold price consolidation coming to an end, watch for rally to $1,800 -Analyst/Kitco
"Gold's consolidation period could soon come to an end as one research firm sees prices pushing to $1,800 by the spring. In a report published Wednesday, Florian Grummes, market analyst at Midas Touch Consulting, said that the precious metal needs a little bit more time to build up enough momentum to break above $1,600, but added that gold bulls are currently in control of the marketplace. 'Every dip is quickly being bought and the surprises are always happening to the upside,' he said. 'Even though gold has already increased by over US$450 from the low at US$1,160 in August 2018, the bulls remain in control and are not showing any weakness.' Looking at gold's near-term technical picture, Grummes said that he is watching and waiting for a breakout above $1,590 to signal a move to his first-quarter target of $1,800 an ounce....But it's not just gold's technical picture, Grummes said that he is also bullish on gold as sentiment in the marketplace has still not reached the 'euphoric phase,' even after the strong performance in 2019. He added that the break above $1,600 could be the factor that ignites the parabolic move he forecasts."

heart World's oldest married couple celebrates 80th Valentine's Day together -MSN/Today
"In the same year that 'Gone With the Wind' first hit theaters, another timeless love story from the South was also beginning. Texas couple John and Charlotte Henderson will celebrate their 80th Valentine's Day together on Friday after having already been recognized by Guinness World Records last year as the oldest living couple on Earth. John, 107, and Charlotte, 105, celebrated their 80th wedding anniversary in November. They have actually been Valentine's Day sweethearts for 85 years if you count the time they were together before they were married in 1939. 'It doesn't seem like it's been that long,' John told Jenna Bush Hager on TODAY Friday. 'Time does fly.'....After eight decades as a married couple, Valentine's Day remains a special time to renew their love. 'I make a homemade valentine for her every year,' John said. 'Oh yes, a little love note on it, yes,' Charlotte said. 'He's pretty romantic, when you get down to it.'....They still exercise every day and enjoy a glass of wine together most nights. The Hendersons are routinely asked about their secret to their record-setting longevity together. 'Never go to bed at night with a chip on your shoulder, and be glad you're with each other,' John said."

US military prepping for coronavirus pandemic -Military Times
"U.S. Northern Command is executing plans to prepare for a potential pandemic of the novel coronavirus, now called COVID19, according to Navy and Marine Corps service-wide messages issued this week. An executive order issued by the Joint Staff and approved by Defense Secretary Mark Esper this month directed Northern Command and geographic combatant commanders to initiate pandemic plans, which include ordering commanders to prepare for widespread outbreaks and confining service members with a history of travel to China....The document serves as the Pentagon's blueprint for planning and preparing for widespread dispersion of influenza and previously unknown diseases....Also earlier this month, U.S. Indo-Pacific Command restricted all Defense Department travel to mainland China and recalled all travelers to the country home."

China's Huawei Charged With Racketeering -Wall Street Journal
"Huawei Technologies Co. and two of its U.S. subsidiaries were charged with racketeering conspiracy to steal trade secrets in a new federal indictment unsealed Thursday, opening another front in the Trump administration's battle with the Chinese telecommunications firm. The new charges amp up pressure on Huawei from the U.S., where Trump administration officials say the company poses a national security risk as it competes fiercely with American rivals around the world....Federal prosecutors in Brooklyn said the new charges related to a decadeslong effort by Huawei and its subsidiaries, both in the U.S. and China, to steal intellectual property, including from six U.S. technology companies. Prosecutors said Huawei's efforts were successful and resulted in the company obtaining nonpublic intellectual property about robotics, cellular-antenna technology and internet router source code. Because the company stole technology and intellectual property, it was able to cut costs and research-and-development delays, giving it an unfair competitive advantage, according to prosecutors....Huawei is the world's biggest telecommunications manufacturer and a leader in next-generation 5G networks. The Trump administration has threatened to cut Huawei off from American suppliers and pressured European allies to stop doing business with it."

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2.13.20 - COVID-19: Bigger Threat Than Terrorism

Gold last traded at $1,578 an ounce. Silver at $17.61 an ounce.

NEWS SUMMARY: Precious metal prices rose sharply Thursday amid rising coronavirus fears. U.S. stocks fell as a jump in reported coronavirus cases fueled worries over the impact on economic activity.

Is Coronavirus the Black Swan That Takes Gold To-Da-Moon? -Yahoo Finance
"The fact that the yield curve has inverted again after the October 2019 normalization, is of great importance. It shows that the underlying forces behind all the 2019 inversions are still in force. It shows that the Fed's easing of monetary policy did not heal the economy....But now it should be clear that the Fed just postponed the inevitable. We mean here, of course, recession...The recessionary fears are still justified, despite the temporary calming down...Investors worry about the prospects of the global growth amid the coronavirus outbreak...After all, the impact on the global economy from the SARS epidemic reached up to $40 billion, according to this research, but as coronavirus is more contagious, its economic costs may be higher....The inversion of the yield curve is positive for the gold prices. Investors expect that the growth will slow down or/and that the Fed will cut the federal funds rate again later this year."

Time Magazine Coronavirus is a bigger threat than terrorism: World Health Organization -New York Post
"Coronavirus should be treated as 'public enemy number one' - posing a bigger threat than terrorism, the World Health Organization has warned. WHO chief Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus insisted Tuesday that the virus - now formally named COVID-19 - is 'a very grave threat' well beyond China, where it originated and has killed at least 1,113 people. The world needs to 'wake up and consider this enemy virus as public enemy number one,' Tedros warned. 'A virus is more powerful in creating political, social and economic upheaval than any terrorist attack,' Tedros told reporters in Geneva. 'It's the worst enemy you can imagine.' So far, the virus has infected over 45,000 people worldwide - although 99 percent of the cases have occurred within China....His alert follows other warnings that 60 to 80 percent of the world's population could be sickened by the virus, resulting in a massive global death toll."

The War on Judy Shelton -Editors/Wall Street Journal
"Judy Shelton finally gets her day in the Senate on Thursday, and if anyone has a coherent argument for denying her confirmation to a seat on the Federal Reserve Board of Governors we haven't heard it. The caterwauling over her nomination confirms why her intellectual diversity is needed at the Fed. Ms. Shelton, a long-time contributor to these pages, was bound to be controversial after a career challenging conventional monetary wisdom. Opposition to her nomination has congealed into two complaints. One is that Ms. Shelton has long supported a return to the gold standard. The other is that she has more recently abandoned that belief in monetary discipline for political reasons....'The consequences of currency chaos affect the personal fortunes of millions of individual citizens; once unleashed, it can spawn social resentments and political upheavals that change the destiny of whole nations,' she wrote in a separate piece for us in 2008. Careful study of eras in which economies backed their currencies with gold, as Ms. Shelton has conducted, offers insights into the truth of this assessment, and also revealing contrasts with the catastrophic misfires of our era of floating rates. Her critics claim this is revolutionary, but the late Fed Chairman Paul Volcker also recognized the benefits of stable exchange rates....The inconvenient truth is that central bankers seem to have no clear idea these days about when they should raise or cut rates....Ms. Shelton is clearly qualified for the Fed role. The question for Senators is how much they trust Mr. Powell, or the academics and journalists who are trying to tank her nomination....If Senators harbor even a sliver of doubt over whether Ms. Shelton's critics know what they're doing, that's all the more reason to confirm her as a distinctive voice in such crucial debates."

Where are the Midlife Rites of Passage? -Conley/Wisdom Well
"Societies have historically celebrated the movement of an individual from one part of life to another by creating festivities or formalities that mark that rite of passage. This rite of passage could be birth, puberty, marriage, having children, or death. Regardless of the event, the intent is to strip the person from their most recent role and prepare them for their new role and status. Unfortunately, rites of passage are almost non-existent in midlife or the workplace. Yes, some companies celebrate employee anniversary dates, and, in the past, you might have earned a gold watch at 65, or some other reminder that your time has expired. I have friends who curated an empty nester party when their kids left home (imagine Ferris Bueller's parents throwing a shindig)...And as long as we're throwing out ideas, what about a menopause weekend with midlife girlfriends or a graduation ceremony for someone in their 50s who went back to school to find a new career path? The only limit is your imagination. Be creative and create your own rites of passage. You deserve it."

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2.12.20 - $2,000 Gold by Election Night Possible

Gold last traded at $1,572 an ounce. Silver at $17.51 an ounce.

NEWS SUMMARY: Precious metal prices eased back Wednesday on a firmer dollar. U.S. stocks rose as investors shook off concerns over how the coronavirus would impact corporate profits and the global economy.

$2,000 gold price by election night is possible -Kitco
"Political changes from the U.S. presidential election in November could see gold prices soar, this according to Peter Schiff, CEO of Euro Pacific Capital. 'I think if Trump is not re-elected, if we get President Sanders, gold should go above $2,000 this year, and if it's not above $2,000 by election, it should be $2,000 election night once we get the results,' Schiff told Kitco News on the sidelines of the Vancouver Resource Investment Conference. The Phase One deal signed with China earlier in the year has no real long-term impact on the economy, Schiff said. 'I don't think there's going to be a Phase Two, this is pretty much it. The government isn't even really getting rid of the tariffs, the tariffs are still here. So there's still a problem. This is not a game changer for the U.S. economy at all,' he noted."

boat Why the Fed needs Trump nominee Judy Shelton -Washington Times
"President Trump has nominated distinguished economist, Judy Shelton, to be a member of the Federal Reserve's seven-person board of governors. Mrs. Shelton is under attack for her alleged 'unorthodox views.'....As a result of her hard work, expertise and rational intelligence, she was able to predict both the path and the timing of the Soviet collapse - and she turned out to be spot on....Many of the great economists of the last century, like Milton Friedman and F.A. Hayek (both Nobel laureates), believed that government fiat currencies - that is currency without the backing of a hard asset like gold - would ultimately fail. The failure would occur because politicians like to spend more money than the tax system produces, leading to higher and higher levels of debt until the private sector refuses to buy any more of it. Look at the record. The United States and all the major nations were on the gold standard before the Fed was created in 1914. The Fed is mandated to provide 'price stability.' In the 120 years before the creation of the Fed, the United States experienced no persistent inflation...The price of gold was $18.93-18.99 per ounce from 1833 until 1913. The price of gold on Feb. 7, 2020, was $1,571 per ounce. So much for price stability under the Fed....Mrs. Shelton is accused of being unorthodox and out of the mainstream because she is closer to Hayek and Friedman in her views about the desirability of a monetary anchor like gold. If the United States is going to have a Fed, it is important that the governors be diverse in their views as a way of minimizing mistakes. In terms of experience, education, a track record of predicting policy outcomes and understanding economic reality, I can think of no better person to serve on the Fed board than Judy Shelton."

The Crash Party -Zero Hedge
"Since 1900 markets have had their fair share of crashes. Mind you crashes don't happen that often, in fact crashes are very rare. You know what's also very rare? A particular party being in power preceding crashes. Every single time, making them the crash party. First off, what were the big crashes since 1900? In chronological order: The panic of 1907. This is what ultimately resulted in the formation of the Fed to not to let something like this happen again. Of course it did, as the next crash came in 1929. Then we went on to various recessions, ups and downs and stagnation in markets for decades. The next famous crash came in 1987. Black Monday. Over 20% in a swift flush. Then of course came the Nasdaq tech crash in 2000 and then of course the great financial crisis in 2008/2009. All of these periods came on the heels of market excess, massive rallies, vast optimism, and then the busts came. But here's the weird thing: ALL of these crashes happened following more than 2 years of GOP control of the Senate, or combined with control of the presidency and in one case the House and the Senate but not the presidency. To appreciate how historical this is: These are also the ONLY times the GOP has had such control....I don't think any fair minded person can blame the GOP solely for market crashes and I'm not doing that....I suggest that all these elements are again at play: We've had massive tax cuts, have trillion dollars deficits, massive optimism and massively stretched valuations and guess what else: Republicans in charge for over 2 years of the Senate and the presidency. The crash party? Don't go around saying I'm calling for a crash. I'm not. History is."

Coronavirus 'could infect 60% of global population if unchecked' -The Guardian
"The coronavirus epidemic could spread to about two-thirds of the world's population if it cannot be controlled, according to Hong Kong's leading public health epidemiologist. His warning came after the head of the World Health Organization (WHO) said recent cases of coronavirus patients who had never visited China could be the 'tip of the iceberg'. Prof Gabriel Leung, the chair of public health medicine at Hong Kong University, said the overriding question was to figure out the size and shape of the iceberg. Most experts thought that each person infected would go on to transmit the virus to about 2.5 other people. That gave an 'attack rate' of 60-80%. 'Sixty per cent of the world's population is an awfully big number,' Leung told the Guardian in London, en route to an expert meeting at the WHO in Geneva on Tuesday....Scientists still do not know for sure whether transmission is through droplets from coughs or possibly airborne particles. 'It's rather difficult to do that kind of careful detailed work when everything is raging. And unless it is raging you are unlikely to get enough confirmed cases,' he said."

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2.11.20 - The S&P 500 is Really Just The S&P 5 - CNN

Gold last traded at $1,568 an ounce. Silver at $17.60 an ounce.

NEWS SUMMARY: Precious metal prices eased back Tuesday on mild profit-taking. U.S. stocks rose as Wall Street shrugged off concerns over the economic impact of the coronavirus outbreak.

Gold price could "easily" go to $2,000; QE4 is like counterfeiting -Rick Rule/Kitco
"With bond yields at historical lows, and even negative in some parts of the world, investors are navigating uncharted waters, and gold demand could see a surge, says Rick Rule, CEO of Sprott U.S. 'If you have mean reversion in terms of gold and gold-related equities, you will see between triple to quadruple demand in precious metals and precious-metals related assets,' Rule told Kitco News on the sidelines of the Vancouver Resource Investment Conference. He added that no prudent investor wants his life insurance to pay off because that means someone has died, and this is what gold is all about. Rule noted that there is an excess of liquidity in the monetary system in the form of quantitative easing that will ultimately drive gold prices higher. 'It is interesting to understand what quantitative easing is: it's counterfeiting. If you and I did it, we'd go to jail,' he said. 'Understand that what they're doing is debasing the currency.' Rule said that gold prices, under these conditions, could 'easily' go to $2,000 and beyond, but it may not happen right away."

stocks The S&P 500 is really the S&P 5. -CNN Business
"The S&P 500 is supposed to be a broad representation of the US economy. So if you're plowing money into an index fund, you might think you're doing a good job of diversifying your assets. You'd be wrong. These days, it's basically the S&P 5. The five largest companies in the S&P 500 - all tech companies - account for nearly 20% of the market value of the entire index. Apple, Microsoft, Amazon, Google owner Alphabet and Facebook are collectively worth $4.85 trillion. The S&P 500 has a market value of around $26.7 trillion. This could be a big problem for investors who are planning for retirement or other long-term goals who don't understand the risks of having all their proverbial eggs in one basket. The last time the S&P 500 had such a high weighting in a single sector (tech) was right before the dot com bubble burst in 2000, according to Tocqueville Asset Management portfolio manager John Petrides. 'Diversifying your assets is Investing 101. Spreading investments across various asset classes, stocks, regions, credit, investment type, is the one way investors can compensate for not having a crystal ball to predict the future,' Petrides said in a report....'The current sector concentration is not a forecast of impending doom, but rather a wake-up call for investors to be aware of the potential risk being taken by simply 'owning the market,''Petrides said in the report."

U.S. Charges Four Chinese Military Members Over Equifax Hack -Bloomberg
"The Department of Justice announced charges Monday against four members of China's People's Liberation Army for the 2017 hack of Equifax Inc., a breach that exposed the personal information of about 145 million Americans. The announcement by Attorney General William Barr follows an indictment in Atlanta accusing the Chinese military personnel of conspiring with each other to hack into Equifax's network and stealing sensitive data on nearly half of all U.S. citizens. 'This was a deliberate and sweeping intrusion into the private information of the American people,' Barr said in a statement...Wu Zhiyong, Wang Qian, Xu Ke and Liu Lei, who were members of the PLA's 54th Research Institute, were charged with three counts of conspiracy to commit computer fraud, conspiracy to commit economic espionage and conspiracy to commit wire fraud, authorities said....'Chinese spying is over the top increasingly dangerous,' said Jim Lewis, a senior vice president and director of the Technology Policy Program at the Center for Strategic and International Studies in Washington. 'The PLA has more personal data on Americans than anyone else.' It's the second time in a week that Barr has raised criticism of China's behavior on technology issues. Last week he gave a speech warning of the threats he said are posed by Chinese technology, focusing on Huawei Technologies Co.'s 5G networks, and saying the U.S. should consider investing in competitors Nokia Oyj and Ericsson AB."

Fixing Inequality Is My Priority -Bloomberg/New York Times
"Every Democrat running for president agrees that income inequality is one of the great problems of our time. And we all agree that the wealthy should pay more in taxes. But only one of us has actually raised taxes on the wealthy by persuading a Republican legislature to vote for them: Me...I persuaded a Republican-led State Senate and a Democratic-led State Assembly to pass the bill, and a Republican governor to sign it. The extra revenue - roughly $400 million per year - allowed us to invest in our future and create jobs and opportunity in the neighborhoods where they were needed most....I'm committed to helping Democrats win control of Congress this year, regardless of the fate of my own campaign. And if, for whatever reasons, our party falls short of controlling both chambers of Congress, the next Democratic president will have to reach across the aisle to end the Republican obstructionism that has gripped Washington for so long. That's not something that most of my fellow Democratic candidates talk much about....Unlike President Trump, I didn't inherit my wealth, and I genuinely support causes I am passionate about: gun safety, climate change, women's rights, universal health care, education and yes, electing Democrats....I believe America should always be a country where a middle-class kid like me can start a business and succeed beyond her or his wildest dreams....After all, who better to make the argument for raising taxes on the wealthy than me?....I'll use the new tax revenue, an estimated $5 trillion over 10 years, to invest in America in ways that reduce inequality, strengthen the middle class and restore faith in the promise of the American dream."

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2.10.20 - Coronavirus: Beijing Locked Down

Gold last traded at $1,579 an ounce. Silver at $17.79 an ounce.

NEWS SUMMARY: Precious metal prices rose Monday as spreading coronavirus worries boosted safe-haven buying. U.S. stocks rebounded despite mounting concerns over how the coronavirus would impact China's economy.

Gold hits 1-week high as virus concerns boost safety demand -CNBC
"Gold rose to its highest in one week on Monday as the death toll from the coronavirus outbreak rose further and investors sought safe havens from the economic impact. 'The coronovirus fears continue to see safe-haven inflows heading into gold and that has been positive for prices,' said Daniel Ghali, commodity strategist at TD Securities....The death toll from the epidemic has surpassed that of Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome (SARS) from 2002-2003 and the World Health Organization said the number of cases outside China could be just 'the tip of the iceberg'. Since late last month, the world's second-largest economy has suffered prolonged business closures, lockdowns and travel restrictions due to the outbreak that hit around the Lunar New Year holidays, a peak time for travel and business. Bullion, seen as a safe investment during crisis, is off to a solid start this year, gaining nearly 4% so far in 2020 after an annual rise of about 18% in 2019."

tax The case for Michael Bloomberg winning -Greenwich Time
"Back in 2016, a wealthy New Yorker got into a crowded presidential race and was immediately dismissed. Virtually nobody actually liked the candidate, polls showed, and there were also questions about how serious he was about the whole thing. Then that candidate won. Could it happen again in 2020? The results of the Iowa caucuses have fed speculation that former New York mayor Mike Bloomberg might actually have a shot at the Democratic nomination. He wasn't on the ballot, mind you, but the results - with a Democratic socialist senator and the young, former mayor of a relatively small American city finishing in the top two slots - seem to have cracked the door ajar to a wild card. Couple that with the 'gut punch' suffered by the leading 'establishment' candidate - Joe Biden's fourth-place finish - and it's not unreasonable to think a lane could open for Bloomberg....Super Tuesday, on March 3, is the first date on which Bloomberg will actually be on ballots, thanks to his late entry into the 2020 race and his unorthodox strategy of spurning the first four states....There are very few polls in the Super Tuesday states, but the few we have suggest he's a player. To wit, some recent polls: He's third in North Carolina at 14 percent. He's fourth in Texas at 9 percent. He's fourth in Utah at 10 percent....In the March 10 mini-Super Tuesday: He's second in Missouri at 14 percent. He's fourth in Washington at 12 percent. He's fourth in Michigan at 9 percent. And on March 17: He's second in Florida at 17 percent. He's fourth in Ohio at 10 percent....There's a lot of what-ifs built into the case for Bloomberg winning the nomination, but there remain a lot of questions about the 2020 Democratic field, and the party's unquenchable thirst for getting Trump out of the Oval Office could make for a unique campaign."

Sooner or Later This Fake Economic Boom Will End -Snyder/Real Clear Markets
"Most people remember the economic policies in 1971 because they were big things, or they had seemed to be. In August of that year, Bretton Woods finally died. To address growing instability in the dollar, the President cut all ties with gold money, the currency no longer convertible by anyone anywhere. On the advice of nearly every economist of the time, he was told a regime of floating currencies was the only way out. And that's the way he went. It was not his only strike at the Great Inflation. The same day the dollar was defaulted, President Nixon told Americans in a nationally televised address that he was 'ordering a freeze on all prices and wages throughout the United States.'...It was as if Chairman Mao and President Nixon had swapped places several months before their historic February 1972 meeting. Nixon, however, hadn't won over everyone with his heavy handedness. Economist Milton Friedman said bluntly, 'Sooner or later, and the sooner the better, it will end as all previous attempts to freeze prices and wages have ended, from the time of the Roman emperor Diocletian to the present, in utter failure and the emergence into the open of the suppressed inflation.'....None of this is unfamiliar territory. It was just four years ago when an upstart no one thought had a chance grabbed the election and rode the deep, underappreciated well of economic dissatisfaction to campaign success. In February of 2016, then-candidate Trump deployed his typical grandiose, exaggerated style after his win in the New Hampshire primary. 'Don't believe those phony numbers when you hear 4.9 and 5 percent unemployment. The number's probably 28, 29, as high as 35. In fact, I even heard recently 42 percent.'....Donald Trump won by saying out loud what everyone else knew but wouldn't talk straight about...Like Nixon in '68, the message from Trump in '16 was, 'I'm here to clean up this huge mess.' He'd earned a ton of goodwill simply by admitting there was a mess....In my mind, there are so many parallels between this election and the one in 1972. The economy isn't close to being fixed and yet many people appear willing to see it play out the way it is now...Trump, like Nixon, can win in a landslide even with a 'boom' that deserves every bit the quotation markets around the word....2020 bears too much resemblance to 1972...To paraphrase Friedman, sooner or later, the sooner the better, it will end as all previous attempts to fake a boom have ended."

Beijing Lock Down, Virus Death Toll Tops 900; More Than 40,000 Infected -Zero Hedge
"Summary: -Virus death toll hits 902, vastly surpassing all of SARS (813) in only three weeks. -The number of global confirmed cases hits 40,553 in China (40,171) and offshore (382). -WHO Director-General warns 'we may only be seeing the tip of the iceberg'. -Exiled Chinese billionaire says true death toll closer to 50k, 1.5 million infected. -New cases confirmed in UK, Spain, Singapore. -Passengers aboard 'Diamond Princess' warn authorities aren't doing enough to protect them - and others. -Officials in Shenzen say they won't block Foxxconn factory reopening. -Cruise ship quarantined in Hong Kong allowed to leave after 4 days. And so the epidemic reaches China's capital Beijing. As gnews reports, as the coronavirus spreads from Wuhan, China has been implementing 'closed management' by putting 80 cities under lockdown, and on Monday, Beijing authorities also issued a 'Strict Closed Management of Residential Communities' in an epidemic prevention and control announcement. It is an official declaration that Beijing, the country's capital city of China, is now under lockdown."

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2.7.20 - China: 400 Million people on Lockdown

Gold last traded at $1,575 an ounce. Silver at $17.74 an ounce.

NEWS SUMMARY: Precious metal prices steadied Friday as upbeat jobs data boosted the dollar. U.S. stocks fell as worries over the impact of the coronavirus on the Chinese economy outweighed stronger-than-expected U.S. jobs data.

Gold Triggers A Buy Signal -Seeking Alpha
"Looking at the market's response to the coronavirus this past week, I can't help but see that the outbreak in China has exposed a seeming disconnect between the financial markets and science. We don't know how bad the crisis will get or how bad economically it will affect the world. However, stocks have figured out that, regardless of any unprecedented economic catastrophe or epidemic, the central banks can cap the economic impact by simply lowering interest rates in any type of crisis....This leads me to believe that the market has once again taken the position that central banks will save the day, regardless of the crisis. That is concerning, since there is only so much the federal reserve banks can do as we approach zero or negative interest rates. Not knowing the full extent of the damage economically, there is a very high risk in being complacent about the economic indicators, especially since we have never seen this kind of crisis develop before....In September, I published an annual report with gold targets for 2020, with the first target in the $1,655 area and the second target above $1,800....Gold triggered a buy signal for the weekly when it closed at $1,558....Gold is in a major area of support, which is validated by a number of independent indicators...The market appears ready to hold and a reversion to that $1,584 level, the weekly mean, is highly likely."

Pelosi The Democrats' Unserious Week -Noonan/Wall Street Journal
"Democrats, when they're feeling alarmed or mischievous, will often say that Ronald Reagan would not recognize the current Republican Party. I usually respond that John F. Kennedy would not recognize the current Democratic Party, and would never succeed in it. Both men represented different political eras but it's forgotten that they were contemporaries, of the same generation...Both men valued certain public behaviors and the maintenance of a public face. It involved composure, coolness, a certain elegance and self-mastery...They knew they were passing through history at an elevated level, and part of their job was to hold high its ways and traditions. Their way is gone, maybe forever. Democrats blame this on Donald Trump...But this week Democrats joined him in the pit. Do they understand what a disaster this was for them? If Mr. Trump wins re-election, if in fact it isn't close, it will be traceable to this first week in February. Iowa made them look the one way a great party cannot afford to look: unserious....And what happened a day later in the House was just as bad. Speaker Nancy Pelosi shattered tradition, making faces, muttering, shaking her head as the president delivered his State of the Union address. At the end she famously stood, tore the speech up and threw down the pieces....The speech itself was shrewd and its political targeting astute....This was the president putting the Republican Party on the side of the nobodies of all colors as opposed to the somebodies....Republicans in the Reagan era used to say, and think, that we were the Main Street party, not the Wall Street one...Mr. Trump is saying he's for the people who live there, in Main Street's diaspora. Whatever happens with him, that is the party's future. Whatever happens with the Democrats they cannot afford another week like this."

A Stunning 400 Million People Are On Lockdown In China -Zero Hedge
"Guangzhou, the capital of China's southwestern Guangdong Province and the country's fifth largest city with nearly 15 million residents, has just joined the ranks of cities imposing a mandatory lockdown on all citizens, effectively trapping residents inside their homes, with only limited permission to venture into the outside world to buy essential supplies. The decision means 3 provinces, 60 cities and 400 million people are now facing China's most-strict level of lockdown as Beijing struggles to contain the coronavirus outbreak as the virus has already spread to more than 2 dozen countries. That's more than 400 million people forcibly locked inside their homes for 638 deaths? Just think about that: If there was ever a reason to believe that Beijing is lying about the numbers (and not just because Tencent accidentally leaked the real data), this is it....Yesterday, Beijing argued that the virus outbreak had 'peaked' as they cited a drop in the rate of new infections. However, others have suggested that the rate of new confirmed cases has more to do with Beijing's limited resources. The WHO said during a press conference on Thursday that it's too early to claim that the outbreak has peaked, even as the outlook for the global economy falls off a cliff."

How to Recession-proof Your Retirement -Wharton
"What are the best ways to make your retirement recession-proof and avoid the losses many people suffered during the last major economic downturn? Nearly three-quarters of economists surveyed by the National Association for Business Economics said the U.S. could enter a recession by 2021. With consumer debt nearing 2008 levels, uncertainties on the health insurance front, and predictions of slower economic growth in the coming years, experts at Wharton note that Americans preparing for retirement should pay down debt, build an emergency fund and look for big and small ways to save money. 'The first thing I would advise, given that it's the beginning of the year, is to start to think about getting your tax material together, and try to put together a summary budget,' said Olivia S. Mitchell, professor of business economics and public policy and executive director of Wharton's Pension Research Council....The next step would be to 'make sure you have an emergency fund,' Mitchell said. Most people suggest that emergency funds should have about six months' worth of income. 'That's not going to save your life if you lose your job and we have huge unemployment, but it will give you some options and opportunities to make the adjustments.'....Mitchell's third nugget of advice was to try and pay down loans such as home mortgages. In the last recession, many people who faced a financial crunch 'had very expensive mortgages,' she pointed out. 'That's why there were so many foreclosures. People lost their homes....Investments are less important than making sure you have enough money saved.'"

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2.6.20 - Gold Prices Up on Coronavirus Worries

Gold last traded at $1,569 an ounce. Silver at $17.82 an ounce.

NEWS SUMMARY: Precious metal prices rose Thursday on safe-haven buying amid ongoing coronavirus worries. U.S. stocks inched higher as investors digested a tariff cut from China along with a raft of earnings and economic data.

Gold prices up on marketplace coronavirus worries -Kitco
"Gold and silver prices are modestly up in early U.S. futures trading Thursday. The safe-haven metals bulls have stabilized their markets late this week, despite rallies in global stock markets this week, led by the U.S. stock indexes that are at record highs again....The coronavirus outbreak continues to spread, with over 500 reported dead in China and around 30,000 afflicted in the country. China's domestic commerce is being impacted, as is global commerce. The big drop in Tesla's stock price Wednesday is blamed at least in part on the coronavirus out break impacting Tesla's business in China. Many global companies doing business with China have been negatively impacted. It will not be surprising to this longtime market watcher to see the coronavirus outbreak back on the front burner of the marketplace next week, or sooner. Such a scenario would be bullish for gold, U.S. Treasuries and the U.S. dollar, and bearish for global equities. Reports overnight said China has moved to lower tariffs on $75 billion in U.S. imports, as part of its recent partial trade agreement with the U.S. Chinese officials also said the plan to cut domestic value-added taxes....Technically, the gold bulls have the overall near-term technical advantage and have worked to stabilize the market late this week."

globe "We Are Entering The Period Of Global Uncertainty..." -Zero Hedge
"The year 2020 could emerge as the start of the era of relative global chaos or major upheaval. It is the era we have been anticipating, as the impact of core population decline meets economic dislocation, and security and structural uncertainty. A broad-brush landscape view of 2020 must include at least the following: 1. The People's Republic of China and the BRI Framework: The Communist Party of China (CPC) should be expected to face unprecedented challenge in 2020-21, not only for its control of the economy of the People's Republic of China (PRC), but to its ability to project the PRC's physical power in its immediate region, and across its suzerain empire, expressed through the Belt & Road Initiative (BRI) network of states....The PRC was already on economic life-support by the time the coronavirus pandemic began to become known by the end of January 2020. It was clear that the CPC was already well aware of the reality that the coronavirus had begun its broad contagion - with the consequent impact on the PRC economy - when it signed the 'trade deal' with Pres. Trump....All of this, coupled with the economic impact of the revolt of Hong Kong against the PRC - effectively removing Hong Kong as one of the key economic contributors to the PRC's 'economic miracle' - meant that the PRC's already-delicate economic condition was now in an unavoidable and dramatic decline....US Pres. Trump, assuming he wins re-election in November 2020, may decide in 2021 to take the PRC off life support and re-start the trade war. The downstream ramifications are significant. 2. Western Europe After Brexit, and the Re-Shaping of the Heartland/Maritime Balance: The myth of the European Union (EU) was finally shattered when the United Kingdom left the EU on January 31, 2020. The EU was already in a delicate economic condition before that occurred, and would now lose significant traction as a result of the UK departure (Brexit)....The ongoing weakness of the EU, however, has significant ramifications for stability in the Mediterranean Basin, and particularly related to actions by Turkey toward Cyprus, Greece, Libya (and by stealth, toward Egypt), and the Levant. There is an increasing likelihood of France continuing to take a sovereign view of strategic issues, and work closely with the UK....3. The United States Moving To and Through Pivotal Elections: The US continues to be a nation divided at levels of polarization not seen since 1860. This is likely to worsen until (and beyond) the November 3, 2020, Presidential and Congressional elections....Of primary importance, then, is whether the US misses great opportunities in 2020 and possibly fails to start to regain unity in 2021, and whether the US can itself regain cohesion at all....A sense of 'social distress' is likely to become exacerbated in major urban societies as the economic decline of China begins to bite the global economy. This will further polarize societies and impact funding for technological evolution. We are entering the period of uncertainty."

There's a 70% chance of recession in the next six months -MIT/State Street/CNBC
"There's a 70% chance that a recession will hit in the next six months, according to new research from the MIT Sloan School of Management and State Street Associates....The researchers analyzed four market factors - industrial production, nonfarm payrolls, stock market return and the slope of the yield curve - on a monthly basis. They then measured how the current relationship between the four metrics, assessed on a monthly basis, compares to historical readings. Looking at data back to 1916, the researchers said that the index was a reliable recession indicator since it rose leading up to every prior recession. They found that when the index topped 70%, the likelihood of a recession rose to 70%."

Senate Acquits Trump on Both Impeachment Articles -Wall Street Journal
"The Republican-led Senate acquitted President Trump of charges stemming from his efforts to press Ukraine to announce investigations that would benefit him politically, bringing to a close a bruising four-month battle fought almost entirely along party lines. The third presidential impeachment in U.S. history intensified the nation's sharp divide over Mr. Trump and previewed many of the arguments likely to be heard ahead of the election this fall. During the trial, Democrats said the Republican president was trying to cheat in the coming election by trying to damage a potential opponent. Republicans said that Democrats were improperly inflating missteps into impeachable offenses and trying to overturn the results of the 2016 election. The Senate vote to acquit marked a clear victory for the president, underscoring his primacy in the GOP and the end to a process that had hung over the past several months of his presidency....Mr. Trump, in a tweet after the vote, declared 'our Country's VICTORY on the Impeachment Hoax' and wrote that he would make a public statement about his acquittal on Thursday....'The verdict of this kangaroo court will be meaningless,' said Sen. Chuck Schumer of New York, the Democratic leader, on Wednesday. 'You cannot be on the side of this president and be on the side of truth.' Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell (R., Ky.) said Democrats used impeachment for political goals."

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2.5.20 - New Terrifying Coronavirus Statistics

Gold last traded at $1,562 an ounce. Silver at $17.61 an ounce.

NEWS SUMMARY: Precious metal prices rose Wednesday on safe-haven buying despite a firmer dollar. U.S. stocks traded mixed as a plunge in Tesla shares pushed the Nasdaq into negative territory.

Gold Could Reach $2,000 as Early as This Year -Yahoo Finance
"Behind Gold's growth is more than a momentary demand for safe-havens in fear of a coronavirus from China. In May last year, precious metal prices grew mainly due to the easing of the monetary policy of major global central banks. Lower interest rates, resuming of asset purchases on central banks' balance sheets - all these measures eventually spur inflation. The acceleration of price growth has become increasingly evident since the middle of last year, which against the backdrop of close to zero rates makes investors look for alternatives to bonds as a way to protect portfolios from inflation. This situation also explains the record volumes of assets at gold-related index funds. The inflow intensified at the end of the last year, along with the sharpest growth phase of stock markets....Besides, central banks are also building up gold reserves. Behind these steps is the desire to diversify reserves amid concerns over the increased debt burdens of the United States, Japan, and many eurozone countries....The Gold price rose by about a quarter in 2019, a repeat of the same dynamics this year opens the door to growth in the region of $2000 per troy ounce, which will be higher than the record levels of 2011...It is entirely consistent with the times of extremely cheap money at a relatively healthy rate of growth."

Trump Trump Touts Economy in State of the Union Speech -Wall Street Journal
"President Trump used his annual State of the Union address Tuesday to paint an optimistic picture of the country's future and tout the strong economy nine months before Election Day. 'In just three short years, we have shattered the mentality of American decline and we have rejected the downsizing of America's destiny. We have totally rejected the downsizing,' Mr. Trump said in the House chamber....Washington's deep partisanship was on full display. The president handed House Speaker Nancy Pelosi (D., Calif.) a copy of his remarks, but turned away without shaking her hand as she extended it. Mr. Trump and Mrs. Pelosi haven't spoken in months; tension over impeachment has frayed their relationship. Moments later, Republicans began chanting, 'Four more years!' During the speech, Republicans repeatedly jumped to their feet and cheered, and Democrats sat stone-faced, standing rarely...At the end of the address, Mrs. Pelosi tore her copy of the president's speech in half. Asked by reporters why she ripped up the speech, Mrs. Pelosi said, 'Because it was a manifesto of mistruths.'....In the speech, Mr. Trump focused on election themes, such as his plans for health care, the impact of economic growth on the middle class and the wall along the southern border. With acquittal in the Senate on abuse of power and obstruction of Congress charges expected Wednesday afternoon, the speech comes at a moment when the president is feeling triumphant....Mr. Trump praised conservative talk radio host Rush Limbaugh, who attended the speech and revealed on Monday he is being treated for advanced lung cancer. First lady Melania Trump presented him with the Presidential Medal of Freedom in the gallery during the speech....The Democratic governor of Michigan, Gretchen Whitmer, gave the Democratic response to the speech...'It doesn't matter what the president says about the stock market,' she said. 'What matters is that millions of people struggle to get by or don't have enough money at the end of the month after paying for transportation, student loans, or prescription drugs.'"

How we know that Tesla is a bubble that is going to pop -Marketwatch
"It hardly seems newsworthy to report that Tesla's stock is in a bubble. After all, it has more than quadrupled since last summer, and short sellers have been insisting ever since that a bubble is forming. But what is newsworthy is that Tesla's stock runup in recent days has now satisfied an objective criteria of a bubble that is about to burst. The probability of a crash is now more than 80%, according to a Harvard model....To be sure, bubbles - and the crashes that follow when they burst - are rarely defined by the armchair pundits who like to throw around these terms with abandon. The Harvard researchers employ the following definitions: A bubble is a sharp price run-up over a two-year followed by at least a 40% drop over the subsequent two years. The probability of that 40% or more price drop rises as a function of the magnitude of the prior two-year return. When the price run-up is 100% or more, they found the probability of a crash becomes 50%. When the price run-up is at least 150%, that probability becomes 80%, and as price run-ups become even bigger, a crash becomes 'nearly certain.'....Tesla's true believers no doubt will insist that the history on which the researchers based their model doesn't apply. They will tell a story that in essence boils down to the claim that there has been no company like Tesla before. That's just another way of saying that 'this time is different,' of course - the four most dangerous words on Wall Street."

Did China's Tencent Accidentally Leak The True Terrifying Coronavirus Statistics -Zero Hedge
"Ten days ago, shortly after China first started reporting the cases and deaths associated with the coronavirus epidemic, a UK researcher predicted that over 250,000 Chinese would be infected with the virus by February 4. And while according to official Chinese data, the number of infections has indeed soared in the past two weeks, at just under 25,000 (and roughly 500 deaths), it is a far cry from this dismal prediction, about ten times below that predicted by the epidemiologists. Is this discrepancy possible? Is the epidemic truly far less serious than conventional epidemiological models predicted? Or is China merely hiding the full extent of the problem?....The biggest hit to the narrative and China's officially reported epidemic numbers came overnight, when a slip up in China's TenCent may have revealed the true extent of the coronavirus epidemic on the mainland. And it is nothing short than terrifying. According to the report, late on Saturday evening, Tencent, on its webpage titled 'Epidemic Situation Tracker', showed confirmed cases of novel coronavirus in China as standing at 154,023, 10 times the official figure at the time...the death toll listed was 24,589, vastly higher than the 300 officially listed that day. Moments later, Tencent updated the numbers to reflect the government's 'official' numbers that day. This was not the first time Tencent has done this: as Taiwan Times notes, Chinese netizens have noticed that Tencent has on at least three occasions posted extremely high numbers, only to quickly lower them to government-approved statistics...This led many in the mainland to speculate that Tencent has two sets of data, the real data and 'processed' data.... In addition, there have been many reports of doctors being ordered to list other forms of death instead of coronavirus to keep the death toll artificially low. What is the truth?"

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2.4.20 - Gold's Next Rally to Target $1,900

Gold last traded at $1,556 an ounce. Silver at $17.61 an ounce.

NEWS SUMMARY: Precious metal prices fell back Tuesday on profit-taking and a firmer dollar. U.S. stocks rebounded as the market recovered from a steep sell-off sparked by worries over the coronavirus.

Gold prices have formed a bottom; expect the next rally to target $1,900 -Kitco
"Gold prices have been consolidating for a few months already, and the next breakout could take prices to 2011 highs of $1,923, this according to Peter Reznicek, head trader at shadowtrader.net. 'For me, the target just has to be the prior all-time high in 2011. I'm just looking at the $1,923 level, that would be fine, and then reassess the situation from there,' Reznicek told Kitco News. Gold prices have been trading between $1,500 and $1,600 for quite some time, but Reznicek said that this consolidating movement is a very bullish sign. 'I like gold, I'm a long-term bull, I have been a long-term bull for quite some time. The way that I like to look at gold is simply to keep the technicals on as long of a time frame as possible, so for me, I always go out to the monthly and I trade gold contracts, ETFs, and options as well according to those monthlies,' he said. He added that since 2000, the market has been in a long-term uptrend that has just developed a bottom."

dollar U.S. dollar could be dethroned internationally by digital currency -Washington Times
"Why is the USD used as the primary reserve currency by most countries - including non-allies such as China and Russia? The USD is the primary clearing currency for international transactions and investment. The answer is simple: The USD is a better store of value, unit of account, and medium of exchange (that is, money) than any other major country's currency....This gives the U.S. government enormous power to control the actions of other governments, businesses and individuals....The global market is what decides which currency is the best international currency. The Chinese have been particularly keen to make their currency a global currency and have set up banks in foreign countries where China has aid or investment programs to operate with the Chinese yuan rather than the USD....There is a growing belief that cryptocurrencies are going to serve as the money of the future, and, in fact, some governments like Singapore are experimenting with the idea. But government-sponsored cryptocurrencies will suffer the same problem that existing government currencies have, and that is because governments have proven that over time they debase the money and overregulate its use. Private cryptocurrencies with commodity backing are the wave of the future now that the invention of the blockchain has solved the double-spending (counterfeiting) problem....King dollar is unlikely to be killed by another competing government money, but most likely by digital technology - which should make the world both freer and more prosperous."

China's Economic Contagion -Wall Street Journal
"Some of President Trump's advisers may want to wall off the U.S. and China into separate spheres of influence, but the novel coronavirus is showing the futility of economic quarantines. Like it or not, the Chinese and world economies sniffle and cough together. Commodities prices sank on Monday amid news that the coronavirus and resulting economic contagion are spreading. U.S. crude oil prices have fallen 20% over the last three weeks as Chinese oil demand is expected to fall by two million barrels a day and global economic growth forecasts have plunged. Copper is down 13%, and iron and steel prices have tumbled. More than 20,000 coronavirus cases have been confirmed worldwide - an eight-fold increase over the last week - and experts say hundreds of thousands may not yet have been diagnosed. Two dozen or so countries have reported cases, and many have restricted travel from China to limit the contagion. Companies are evacuating employees from China. U.S. manufacturers such as Ford, Apple and Tesla have temporarily halted production. One-sixth of Apple sales and nearly half of chip-maker Qualcomm's revenues come from China. So do 80% of active ingredients used by drug-makers to produce finished medicines. Because China is the world's largest manufacturer and an enormous consumer market, the economic freeze will disrupt supply chains and reduce corporate earnings. China's GDP growth was already almost certainly lower than the official figure of 6%, and it is likely to fall by a third or more."

Bracing for Bernie: Why Sanders could be a nightmare for Wall Street -Egan/CNN
"Bernie Sanders winning the White House would be Wall Street's worst political nightmare. Investors famously hate uncertainty. And it's hard to imagine something that would cause more uncertainty to the capitalist system than electing a self-proclaimed democratic socialist who is calling for a political revolution. Sanders wants to ban oil and gas fracking, break up big banks and institute a wealth tax. That's why Wall Street could feel the Bern - and not in a good way - if Sanders wins big in the Iowa caucuses and continues that momentum through Super Tuesday. Investors would be forced to confront the reality that Sanders, once seen as a long-shot candidate, could win the 2020 election....Jeff Gundlach, the billionaire investor who correctly predicted Donald Trump's 2016 victory, similarly warned Wall Street last month of a looming Sanders 'scare' for markets. Sanders has surged in the polls throughout January and is now viewed as the odds-on favorite to win the nomination by users on prediction market PredictIt. Sanders now has a 46% chance of winning the nomination, up from 18% in early December. The next closest Democrat is Joe Biden, with 27%, according to PredictIt....'The billionaire class is scared and they should be scared,' Sanders wrote on his Instagram page last month. Sanders vowed to 'end the greed' of various industries, including Wall Street, insurance and fossil fuels. 'We're prepared to be their worst nightmare and stand up for the working families of this country,' he wrote....Trump is viewed as the best-case scenario for Wall Street in 2020."

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2.3.20 - Fed Pumps in Another $59.85 Billion

Gold last traded at $1,580 an ounce. Silver at $17.63 an ounce.

NEWS SUMMARY: Precious metal prices stabilized after reaching multi-year highs in previous session. U.S. stocks rose after brutal Friday selloff amid mixed economic data and continued concerns over growing coronavirus threat.

Gold continues to flirt with multi-year highs, and there's more to it than coronavirus- CNBC
"Gold prices slipped slightly on Monday after China pumped cash into its economy, but the metal continues to flirt with multi-year highs. While stocks, oil, some base metals and other risk assets sold off sharply last week in response to demand fears arising from the rapid spread of the coronavirus, safe-haven gold gained just over 1% from Monday through to Friday. Gold has risen 4% so far this year already and hit its highest level since April 2013 early last month, as investors fled risk assets following a spike in tensions between the U.S. and Iran....The coronavirus outbreak has triggered further risk sell-offs, but is not alone in providing a lift to the gold price, according to BullionRock Managing Director Robin Newbould. 'In 2019, pre-virus, gold gained circa 20% thanks to low global economic forecasts, low-to-negative interest rates, expectations of a weaker U.S. dollar, trade wars and possible real wars. All pretty miserable stuff, now we think about it, but no barrier to generating positive, non-correlated returns that hold their own when compared to other assets,' he told CNBC via email on Monday. 'Little wonder then that central banks purchased a record $15.7bn of gold in the first six months of last year.'"

yuan China to inject $173 billion into economy to cushion expected stock shock- Market Watch
"China's central bank announced plans Sunday to inject 1.2 trillion yuan ($173 billion) into the economy to cushion the shock to financial markets from the outbreak of a new virus when trading resumes on Monday after a prolonged Lunar New Year holiday. The People's Bank of China announced several measures over the weekend aimed at stabilizing the economy as the impact of the virus spreads with cancelled flights, stepped up quarantines and other controls. Beijing extended the usual week-long holiday by three days but markets are due to reopen Monday and many expect they will drop sharply. Elsewhere in the region, worries over the potential harm to businesses and trade from the outbreak have triggered wide swings in share prices...In a separate statement Saturday, the PBOC said that while markets would reopen, financial institutions should follow local quarantine regulations and try to minimize gatherings to reduce risks of spreading the virus, which has infected more than 14,000 people and killed more than 300....Regulators have also urged banks and other financial institutions to boost lending and avoid calling in debts in areas severely affected by the pandemic...A large share of the 1.2 trillion yuan to be injected into markets will go to meeting payment obligations falling due on Monday, analysts said. But it's still a massive amount of funding. 'This is well beyond the band-aid fix, and if this deluge doesn't hold risk-off at bay, we are in for a colossal beat down,' Stephen Innes of AxiCorp. said in a client note Sunday."

The global economic threat of the coronavirus- Axios
"The coronavirus has the potential to be as damaging to the global economy as the U.S.-China trade war, economists tell Axios, and if not contained could wreak havoc on businesses across the globe, with great uncertainty over how bad things could get...The epicenter of the virus is China, which is now the world's top trading nation and largest commodity buyer, and the no. 1 trading partner for many of the world's biggest economies, including Germany and Japan, which both are suffering already from anemic growth....'If this virus begins to mutate rapidly so that it becomes increasingly more difficult to find a cure for it, that would be extremely alarming,' Bernard Baumohl, chief global economist at the Economic Outlook Group, tells Axios. 'And if WHO declares it as a pandemic, that too will have a depressing effect on the global economy because countries will put in certain limitations on commerce, on trade, and that will obviously slow down growth.' The global manufacturing sector is already in recession in advanced countries like the U.S. and eurozone, and the coronavirus outbreak is threatening the services sector....Fed chair Jerome Powell demurred action from the U.S. central bank at last week's January policy meeting, but his hand (and that of other central bankers) may be forced, Joseph Brusuelas, chief economist at tax and consulting firm RSM, tells Axios. 'If this continues for another week or two, we will begin debating fresh central bank action to put a floor under asset markets.'"

Fed Adds $59.85 Billion to Financial Markets- Wall Street Journal
"The overall amount of temporary liquidity provided by the Federal Reserve Bank of New York rose on Monday. The central bank intervened in the market with a $59.85 billion overnight repurchase-agreement operation, or repo, in which eligible banks, known as primary dealers, took less money than the Fed was willing to offer. With the expiration of past operations, overall liquidity rose by $14.3 billion to $184.8 billion. Fed repo interventions take in U.S. Treasurys, agency and mortgage bonds from the dealers, in what is effectively a short-term loan of central-bank cash, collateralized by the bonds. Primary dealers are limited in the amount of liquidity they can take in exchange for their securities, and they pay interest to the central bank to get the funds....The Fed controls the fed-funds rate to influence the overall cost of borrowing in the U.S. economy as part of its efforts to achieve the job and inflation goals set for it by Congress. Monday's intervention was the first such action of the new month. Market participants said there was no sign of money-market stress as January came to an end. But there was a warning about the prospect for rising short-term borrowing rates at the close of March."

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1.31.20 - Gold Prices Poised to Hit 7-Year High

Gold last traded at $1,588 an ounce. Silver at $17.99 an ounce.

NEWS SUMMARY: Precious metal prices rise on continued safe-haven demand, set to post second monthly climb. U.S. stocks fell sharply lower after Delta and American suspended all flights between China and the U.S.

Gold Price Poised to Knock Out Another 7-Year High: 3 Reasons Why- CCN
"Bullion is outperforming the U.S. stock market this month. There are at least three reasons why the precious metal is likely to extend its rally for the remainder of the quarter. The renewed urgency to buy gold follows a worsening coronavirus outbreak that has infected thousands of people across at least 19 countries. After initial hesitation, the World Health Organization (WHO) has officially declared the coronavirus outbreak to be a global public health emergency....The flight to safety has been accompanied by sharp declines in global equity markets. Following a brief pause, stock prices are plunging again over fears of global pandemic. In an environment dominated by risk-off sentiment, gold and other safe havens are likely to rise in value. Gold's rapid ascent is also being aided by technical traders who see renewed opportunity in longing the precious metal....The analyst believes prices are only now breaking out from a mid-cycle consolidation, which puts $1,700 on the immediate horizon. Bullion has already pushed north of the 10-period moving average, giving it a bullish bias over the short term. A takeout of $1,600 leaves the seven-year peak of $1,619.60 exposed."

titanic Has The Global Economy Finally Exhausted Its Good Luck? -Smith/Zero Hedge
"The past three decades of global growth are rarely attributed to luck: it's all the result of our brilliant fiscal, monetary and trade policies. Those in positions of wealth and power are delighted to take credit for this tremendous success, but as a general rule, the more knowledgeable you are and the higher up the food chain you are, the greater your awareness of the role of luck in any unbroken chain of success...I described how this worked in the Titanic disaster in Why Our Financial System Is Like the Titanic (March 15, 2016)....Unbeknownst to the era's designers and shipbuilders, the Titanic's hull plates were brittle due to high sulfur content in the steel, especially at cold temperatures (the water was near freezing at the time of the collision with the iceberg). Rather than deform as the iceberg scraped against the hull, the plates and rivets fractured, opening the irregular gash that sank the ship....The presence of lifeboats seemed to offer a guarantee of safety, yet outdated regulations only required enough lifeboats for half the crew and passengers....If the Titanic had narrowly missed the iceberg, everyone would have continued to be resolutely confident that the ship and all the life-safety systems were not just adequate but beyond adequate....Much of what we take for granted as essentially guaranteed by our fabulous technologies and systems is more akin to the Titanic than we care to admit....The global economy has been astonishingly lucky for 30 years - or even 75 years. Like the passengers on the Titanic, we have unquestioned confidence in our technologies and systems because they appear so 'guaranteed', so resilient and so redundant. All of these guarantees and redundancies are as illusory as the 'unsinkable' technologies of the Titanic."

Hackers ramping up attacks on retirement accounts - how to keep yourself safe -Marketwatch
"Bank accounts are a top target for hackers, and retirement accounts may not be far behind. Cybercriminals are moving toward retirement and loan accounts. Although the number of consumers affected by identity fraud has declined between 2017 and 2018, hackers are targeting new types of financial accounts - such as customer rewards programs and retirement plans, according to the 2019 Identity Fraud Study from Javelin Strategy & Research. Part of the problem is identity theft, which can provide hackers the keys to getting into important accounts. Data breaches have become common - Target, Sony and Microsoft were all targets of major data breaches in recent years - and provide scammers with credit card information and billing addresses. Capital One was also hacked in 2019, revealing information of more than 100 million of its customers - including dates of birth, income and payment history and Social Security numbers....There are many layers to stealing from retirement accounts - most financial institutions have numerous security measures in place before a withdrawal occurs - but if it were to happen, it could result in the loss of tens of thousands, if not hundreds of thousands, of dollars. Retirement accounts in particular can be a hacker's dream, as they're not checked nearly as often as other financial accounts and retailer sites. Here's what you can do to keep your accounts safe: Check your accounts for security purposes....Secure your accounts. Always be cautious with sensitive information, such as Social Security numbers, passwords, and addresses or phone numbers....Keep your devices updated. Don't click on unfamiliar links via email or web searches."

The War on Cash -The Independent
"There is global push by lawmakers to eliminate the use of physical cash around the world and this movement is often referred to as the war on cash and is imperative for few reasons, firstly, the elimination of cash will make it easier to track all types of transactions, including transactions made by criminals, secondly, large denominations of bank notes make illegal transactions easier to perform which will lead anonymity significantly, thirdly, the coercive elimination of physical cash will have potential consequences on the economy and social liberties, fourthly, if all the money is within the control of the government, they could levy negative interest/profit rates....Moreover, a cashless society is faster and more efficient and banks would incur less cost by not having to handle cash. It also makes compliance and reporting easier. According to some experts, the burden of cash might be up to 1.50% of GDP of a country. After all, cash is still used near about 80% of all transactions worldwide....Government and central banks have moved swiftly in some countries to eliminate cash i.e. South Korea (aims to eliminate paper money entirely by 2020), France (considering banning cash transactions over €1000), Sweden (banks have started removing ATMs from rural areas), India (demonetized 86% of its cash in 2016 which means that all the banknotes had to be first returned into the system and be exchanged with newer bank notes), and Greece (has levied a tax on withdrawal of money from the bank)....The war on cash and negative interest/profit rates are fundamental and insane measures. However, it will not always remain free from threats and financial security as well. Notable, with all wealth stored digitally, the potential risks and impacts of cybercrime increases, hacking or identity theft could destroy people's life savings. Holding paper cash lets you opt out of the financial system. Holding and using paper cash makes it much harder for governments to track, monitor, and control you. Also, prevents the government's ability to take money directly from your bank account via negative interest/profit rates. It's penning us in like sheep for a shearing. If all your money is in a digital bank account, you're helpless."

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1.30.20 - Smart Move to Shift to Gold -Barrons

Gold last traded at $1,589 an ounce. Silver at $17.99 an ounce.

NEWS SUMMARY: Precious metal prices rose on safe-haven buying and a weaker dollar. U.S. stocks fell as the death toll from the coronavirus continues to rise in China, stoking fears over the impact on global economic growth.

Investors Are Shifting Back Into Gold. It Looks Like a Smart Move. -Barrons
"There has been a stealth move to gold in the past year, both by investors buying exchange-traded funds that hold the metal and central banks, which have been shifting a portion of their reserves from traditional paper currencies, notably the U.S. dollar, to the monetary metal, according to J.P. Morgan's global markets strategy team led by Nikolaos Panigirtzoglou. Despite the U.S. stock market's ascent to records, mutual fund investors have been surprisingly cautious...They have also poured money into gold ETFs, boosting the ETFs' assets back to their highs of 2012, shortly after bullion peaked near $1,900 an ounce. Since late 2018, when Barron's published a bullish cover story on gold investing, the metal is up more than 30%...settling Tuesday at $1,569.20. Panigirtzoglou's team sees gold as an underowned asset, both by individual as well as institutional investors, despite the inflows into the metal in the past year or so. They see further scope for increased allocation to gold in their asset mixes....Gold retains its intrinsic value, something no paper currency has managed to do over history. Gold is insurance. Insurance isn't supposed to make you rich; it's supposed to keep you from being poor. The best thing to happen is your insurance never pays off because nothing bad happens. Hope for the best, but better to prepare for the worst."

dollar Fed official: "If there's a recession, don't worry" -Black/Sovereign Man
"Earlier this week I sent one of my team members to a banking conference here in Puerto Rico hosted by the Federal Reserve....Aside from the investment projects, the really interesting part about the event was what the keynote speakers from the Federal Reserve had to say about the economy, and the Fed itself. One very senior Fed official, for example, told the audience, 'if there's a recession, don't worry,' because 'the Fed is very powerful' and has all the tools it needs to support the economy. My colleague was astonished at what had just been uttered, and texted me immediately. I was dumbstruck. 'Don't worry"¦???' That's a bold statement. Former US Treasury Secretary Larry Summers summed it up recently when he wrote that 'the United States is one recession away' from joining Europe and Japan in 'monetary black hole economics. . . interest rates stuck at zero and no prospect of escape.' In every single recession since the 1970s, the US Federal Reserve slashed interest rates by an average of 5%. At this precise moment the Fed's key benchmark interest rate is just 1.55%. Do the math - if the Fed reduces interest rates in the next recession by this average 5% cut, that would make interest rates NEGATIVE. Summers calls this the 'Black Hole,' because once the economy hits zero or negative rates, there is no escape....I appreciate the Fed official trying to put on a brave face yesterday when he told the audience not to worry. But the reality is they're simply not equipped to deal with what's coming next."

U.S. Economy Grew at 2.1% Rate in Fourth Quarter -Wall Street Journal
"The U.S. economy grew at its slowest pace since 2016 last year, after posting a 2.1% advance in the fourth quarter. Gross domestic product - the value of all goods and services produced across the economy - rose at a seasonally and inflation-adjusted annual rate of 2.1% from October to December, the Commerce Department said Thursday, with full-year growth in 2019 at 2.3%....The economy's expansion last quarter reflected a boost from trade as exports increased and imports dropped sharply. The pace of consumer spending slowed, and business investment dropped for the third quarter in a row, while residential investment picked up....The current expansion, which began in mid-2009, became the longest on record in July. Still, the average pace of growth hasn't managed to rise much above 2%, slower than the 2.9% rate during the 2001-2007 expansion and the 3.6% rate from early 1991-2001."

Congressional Budget Office projects trillion-dollar deficits indefinitely -Horowitz/Conservative Review
"According to the 2020 budget outlook released on Tuesday, the deficit for this year is projected to reach $1.015 trillion. There will be no turning back from there, as deficits are slated to grow every year for the remainder of the 10-year budget window, topping $12.4 trillion of cumulative new deficits by the end of the decade. Perhaps the most shocking element of this report is the fact that unemployment is so low, yet deficits are as bad as they were during the worst times of the Great Recession. 'Not since World War II has the country seen deficits during times of low unemployment that are as large as those that we project - nor, in the past century, has it experienced large deficits for as long as we project,' said CBO Director Phillip L. Swagel in a press conference on Tuesday....The time for growing our way out of the debt bomb seems to have long passed, as the debt itself is acting as a wet blanket on economic growth and efficient investments, even during a period of job creation. What's the number-one driver of the debt? While Social Security is the single biggest expenditure for an individual program, federal spending on all health care programs together tops even the price tag of America's iconic retirement program. The CBO projects spending on health care, which largely funds third-party and fourth-party vendors who interfere between the patient and the doctor, will cost $1.3 trillion this year."

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1.29.20 - The Coronavirus Is A Black Swan Event -Forbes

Gold last traded at $1,569 an ounce. Silver at $17.46 an ounce.

NEWS SUMMARY: Precious metal prices rose Wednesday on safe-haven buying despite a firmer dollar. U.S. stocks fluctuated as chipmakers declined while investors looked ahead to the latest policy decision from the Fed.

Gold Would Explode With A Bernie Sanders Presidency -Schiff/Zero Hedge
"Bernie Sanders has gained in the polls of late and only trails Joe Biden by about three percentage points, according to the latest Fox News poll. On top of that, Sanders matches up against President Trump. He leads 48% to 42% in a head-to-head matchup. Peter Schiff told Fox Business that said a Sanders presidency would be an economic disaster for the US, but it would be good for gold. 'If Sanders becomes president in 2020, the price of gold will be well above $2,000 on the day after election night.' In fact, Peter said gold could rise to $2,000 before the election if the market thinks Sanders is going to win...'What a Sanders win means is much bigger government deficits, and much more money printing by the Fed because there is no way to finance all of the spending that will happen with tax hikes on the rich. We'll get tax hikes on the rich, but they're not going to provide the revenue to pay for the programs.'....Peter said even though the Fed has paused rate cuts, for the time being, he thinks the central bank will ultimately cut all the way back to zero and the Fed's balance sheet will 'explode to a much higher than the four-and-a-half trillion that they tapered from.' And a Sanders presidency would do nothing but exacerbate this and speed up the dollar's demise."

exports The Coronavirus Is A Black Swan Event That May Have Serious Repercussions For The U.S. Economy And Job Market -Forbes
"A black swan event is a term used on Wall Street that refers to a rare and unpredictable occurrence that is beyond what is expected and has severe consequences....The coronavirus is a black swan event, which may have serious consequences for your job, the stock market and global economy. Historically, when the stock market goes relatively straight up, there is an expectation of a correction somewhere down the road. A correction is about a 5 to 10% drop in value of stocks. It's viewed as necessary, like clearing out the dead brush in a forest to prevent a future fire. Even the wisest minds on Wall Street admit that they can't anticipate where the next correction will come from and what damage it may bring. It now seems that the coronavirus is that black swan event....Major shops, restaurants and tourist destinations are shuttering their doors across China. To avoid spreading the coronavirus, companies in China have advised staff to work from home. Employees returning from impacted areas are being told not to show up to work. Global stock and bond markets have been hit by mounting worries. Investors are afraid of how this will play out. China's growth will surely stagnate, they contend. International commerce will slow down....It's reasonable to believe that for the near-term period of time, stocks will fall in value, hiring will temporarily slow down, new corporate initiatives will be placed on hold and the overall business climate will be fearful....With courage, ingenuity and global cooperation, the fear will subside, cures will be found and things will go back to normal."

Act Now to Prevent an American Epidemic -Wall Street Journal
"The novel coronavirus now epidemic in China has features that may make it very difficult to control. If public-health authorities don't interrupt the spread soon, the virus could infect many thousands more around the globe, disrupt air travel, overwhelm health-care systems, and, worst of all, claim more lives. The good news: There's still an opening to prevent a grim outcome. China failed to contain the virus early. More cases in the U.S. are inevitable. Experience with the 2009 H1N1 flu pandemic suggests that emergency measures such as school closures and border screening - in place at 20 U.S. airports - can at most buy time....As more U.S. cases develop, the strategy needs to incorporate another goal: preventing transmission of the coronavirus within the U.S. Four important steps now could help. First, the most important public-health tool for containment is the identification and isolation of cases to break the chain of spread....Second, focus on the flu. The incidence of flu and other respiratory viral infection cases is high right now in the U.S....Third, hospitals need to prepare for an influx of patients who will need to be isolated....Finally, government agencies, medical product developers, and public-private partnerships such as the Coalition for Epidemic Preparedness Innovations have started to develop vaccines and therapies....Even if this novel coronavirus is brought under control, it is only a matter of time before another pandemic threat."

Junk debt hits new record, posing elevated default risks -Moody's/CNBC
"Corporate America is awash in junk debt, and the situation could deteriorate substantially in the next five years as a record amount of issuance comes due. Moody's Investors Service warned Thursday that default risk is on the rise for the nearly $1.2 trillion of speculative-grade loans, bonds and various related instruments maturing from 2020-24. That total is a record for maturities coming due over a five-year period, up 14% from 2019. A bigger issue may be that so many companies are slowly sliding down the rating scale. Moody's notes that 36% of the total bank maturities in the speculative sphere are rated B3 or lower, up from 33% a year ago. That B3 rating is at the bottom of the 'highly speculative' ladder and just above the level considered to carry substantial risk. In all, single B-rated loans now constitute more than half of the issues maturing in the next five years, also a record....Oil and gas had the highest default rate in 2019 and holds 8% of the speculative-grade debt."

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1.27.20 - Gold Prices Pop Near 6-Year Peak

Gold last traded at $1,580 an ounce. Silver at $18.14 an ounce.

NEWS SUMMARY: Precious metal prices rose Monday on safe-haven buying amid market jitters. U.S. stocks fell after more cases of the coronavirus were confirmed, ratcheting up worries over the impact on the world economy.

Gold prices pop to 6-year peak as China virus fears fuel market unease -Marketwatch
"Gold prices on Monday headed to a more than six-year high, as fears of the economic impact of a fast-moving viral outbreak hurt appetite for stocks and powered buying in assets perceived as havens. 'The anticipated Wuhan flu contagion triggered sell-off in equity markets will likely drive gold demand out of the gates today, and long-term strategic buyers could compound the move higher as they start to position for the 'Wu-flu' to spread at a faster pace in the coming weeks,' wrote independent trader Stephen Innes, in a daily research note....Gains for bullion are putting the precious metal on track to top its highest closing level since 2013, according to FactSet data. Stocks are under pressure, supporting gains precious metals and bond prices, with the 10-year Treasury note yield, that moves in the opposite direction of prices, down at 1.62% from 1.68% late Friday. Silver prices were up 13 cents, putting the commodity on pace for its highest close in about three weeks."

subway Virus death toll in China rises as US prepares evacuation -Associated Press
"A new viral illness being watched with a wary eye around the globe accelerated its spread in China with 80 deaths so far, while the U.S. Consulate in the city at the epicenter announced it will evacuate its personnel and some other Americans aboard a charter flight. China's health minister said the country was entering a 'crucial stage' as 'it seems like the ability of the virus to spread is getting stronger.' President Xi Jinping has called the outbreak a grave situation and said the government was stepping up efforts to restrict travel and public gatherings while rushing medical staff and supplies to the city at the center of the crisis, Wuhan, which remains on lockdown with no flights, trains or buses in or out. The epidemic has revived memories of the SARS outbreak that originated in China and killed nearly 800 as it spread around the world in 2002 and 2003. Its spread has come amid China's busiest travel period of the year, when millions crisscross the country or head abroad for the Lunar New Year holiday. The government said early Monday the death toll had risen to 80, with 2,744 confirmed cases....The U.S. has confirmed cases in Washington state, Chicago, Southern California and Arizona....A notice from the U.S. Embassy in Beijing said there would be limited capacity to transport U.S. citizens on a Tuesday flight from Wuhan that will proceed directly to San Francisco."

The Fed Won't Take Away Markets' Punch Bowl -Wall Street Journal
"The Federal Reserve has taken away, for now, one of the biggest uncertainties that investors face. When they meet this week, Fed officials are all but certain to leave their target range on overnight rates on hold. Nor do they seem likely to do much of anything in the months ahead....They now have another worry - the dangers of inflation remaining persistently below its 2% target...This opens the economy to the kind of low inflation, low-rate regime to which Japan has succumbed....So the Fed's commitment to low rates will likely remain in place until inflation is clearly above its 2% target, giving investors a green light to not worry about the central bank tightening policy for a very long time. It is a party that might end badly, but it could keep raging for a while."

Retired Or Retiring Soon? Yes, Worry About A Correction -Zero Hedge
"One of the biggest reasons why investors consistently underperform over the long-term is due to flawed investment advice....In 2000, the average 'baby boomer' was around 45-years of age. The 'dot.com' crash was painful, but with 20-years to go before retirement, there was time to recover. In 2010, following the financial crisis, the time to retirement for the oldest boomers was depleted, and the average boomer only had 10-years to recover. With the majority of 'boomers' now faced with the implications of a transition into the distribution phase of the investment cycle, such has important ramifications during market declines....While it only requires a non-withdrawal portfolio an 11.1% return to break even, it requires nearly a 20% return for a portfolio in the distribution phase to attain the same level. Impairments to capital are the biggest challenges facing pre- and post-retirees currently....In other words, if you are banking on some advisor's promise of 10% annual returns for retirement, you aren't going to make it. What this analysis reveals is that 'retirees' SHOULD be worried about bear markets....With debt levels rising globally, economic growth on the long-end of the cycle, earnings growth weak, valuations high, and potential risk of a recession, the uncertainty of retirement plans has risen markedly."

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1.24.20 - Gold Rises as China Virus Spreads

Gold last traded at $1,570 an ounce. Silver at $18.07 an ounce.

NEWS SUMMARY: Precious metal prices rose sharply Friday on safe-haven buying despite a firmer dollar. U.S. stocks turned negative after the second U.S. case of the deadly coronavirus in the U.S. was confirmed and World Health Organization called the outbreak an 'emergency in China.'

Gold rises as China virus scare spurs safe-haven bid -CNBC
"Gold prices rose on Friday as the China coronavirus stoked fears of a wider epidemic that could hamper economic growth. The Center for Disease Control and Prevention announced a second case of the deadly coronavirus in Chicago on Friday. The CDC also said 63 patients in 22 states are under investigation for coronavirus infection. The spread of the virus ahead of the Lunar New Year, a peak period of travel and gold demand in China, kept investor concerns heightened....'With a low interest rate environment, geopolitical risks and uncertainties such as U.S. President's impeachment, the conditions are still quite conducive to further upside in gold,' ANZ analyst Daniel Hynes said. After the European Central Bank left rates unchanged on Thursday, investors are looking to the U.S. Federal Reserve's first meeting of the year scheduled on Jan. 28-29."

Flinstones Meet the Spendthrifts -Mises Institute
(Sing along to the theme song from the Flintstones.)
'Spendthrifts, meet the Spendthrifts, They're the modern wasteful family. From the town of DC, The most reckless house in history. Their massive outlays are so darn carefree, They have no concept of reality. When you're with the Spendthrifts, Common sense, restraint and honesty are all a joke. Soon we will all be broke.' Meet the Spendthrifts; but they're not from the Stone Age. They are an American family who spends a lot more money than it earns each year. Last year, the Spendthrifts made just over $34,000 but spent more than $44,000. Nearly $10,000 of their spending came from borrowing - they put the excess spending on their credit cards. The problem is that their credit card debt was over $215,000 at the start of the year, bringing it to over $227,000 at year-end. Oh, and they weren't making any monthly credit card payments. How could they continue to add to their credit card balances without making monthly payments? They couldn't. Why would the credit card companies allow them to accrue that much debt with their income? They wouldn't. But the Spendthrifts are not an actual family. Rather, they represent the federal government - and it can spend without restraint because it is the credit card company. Just add nine more zeroes to all the above numbers and you end up with the federal budget and debt as of September 28, 2019, the end of the federal fiscal year. Specifically, the feds spent $4.4 trillion but only raised $3.4 trillion in revenue. The shortfall of nearly $1 trillion was borrowed, along with some unpaid interest, which resulted in debt of nearly $23 trillion....It all comes back to common sense. The feds cannot continue to add more gargantuan programs that will require lots of taxing and borrowing without bankrupting the country...The Spendthrifts would not exist in the private sector, as the lenders would never allow them to borrow that much on their income. We need to do the same with the feds, although that is much easier said than done."

The Boom-Bust Cycle Is Over -Bridgewater/Zero Hedge
"Just in case anyone was worried that the smart money was quietly getting ready to stop dancing after Bridgewater's Co-CIO Greg Jensen told the FT in an interview last week that it's time to buy gold (which he sees rising to $2,000 because the Fed and other central banks would let inflation run hot for a while and 'there will no longer be an attempt by any of the developed world's major central banks to normalize interest rates') ahead of the Fed cutting rates to zero and that 'equities are frothy' as 'most of the world is long equity markets', today Bridgewater's other Co-CIO came out with a controversial statement that appears to convey a polar opposite message to Jensen's warning. Bob Prince, who alongside Greg Jensen helps oversee the world's biggest hedge fund at Bridgewater Associates as its other Co-CIO, said 'the boom-bust economic cycle is over.'....Prince was referring not only to the boom-bust cycle created by central banks, which first ease then tighten, resulting in bubbles and eventually crashes...but also to the broader cycle of economic expansion and contraction that repeats itself. And as a result of central bank intervention since the financial crisis and monetary easing, that cycle has effectively been disrupted and has helped fuel the longest-running bull market in stocks....Ray Dalio, rehashed his warning from Jan 2018 - just before the market cracked - when he urged investors not to miss out an opportunity to benefit from strong markets. 'Cash is trash,' he said in a CNBC interview in Davos on Tuesday. 'There's still a lot of money in cash.'"

The Long and Winding Road to Bankruptcy -Bonner/Bonner And Partners
"'This reminds me of the early '70s,' said an old-timer yesterday. Do you remember what happened, Dear Reader? We do....Life back then wasn't so expensive. With $120 you could buy three whole ounces of gold. Or, you could invest in stocks; with seven weeks' worth of wages ($840), assuming we spent nothing, we could buy all 30 of the Dow stocks. Gold was the better bet. Over the next 10 years, the Dow went nowhere. In 1981, it was about where we found it in 1971. The old money was gone. In its place was new money, a new dollar from which the gold link had been removed. Now it was called a 'Federal Reserve note,' meaning that it was a liability - a debt - owed to you by the central bank. Most people barely noticed the difference. The new dollars looked almost exactly like the old ones. They spent like the old ones, too. What difference did it make if the foreigners could no longer redeem them for gold as promised? Well, it made a difference to the Arabs. Oil producers noticed that getting new dollars for their oil was not the same as getting old dollars. The price of gold rose from $35 in 1970 to over $100 in 1973. Arab exporters were still taking $3 for a barrel of oil. In real terms, their incomes had been cut by two-thirds....The first oil shock set off the Great Inflation. The Consumer Price Index was at about 4% in early '73. By 1975, it rose to a peak of 10%, eased off, and then rose again to end the decade at 14%. People blamed the Arabs. But the real price of oil - in gold - merely went back to 1970 levels, before the new money was put in place. And the real villains weren't in Riyadh. They were in Washington. As for investors, they thought they went nowhere in the '70s. But that was just another illusion caused by the new dollars. In real money, they lost 92% of their stock market wealth. Prices held steady in nominal, new dollars. But in old-dollar terms, they collapsed. So what do you think? What would you tell a young man just starting out today? Buy stocks? Or buy gold? Or let's put the question another way. Are the feds likely to inflate more or less than in the 1970s?"

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1.23.20 - Coronavirus Emphasizes the Need to Buy Gold

Gold last traded at $1,566 an ounce. Silver at $17.85 an ounce.

NEWS SUMMARY: Precious metal prices rose Thursday on safe-haven buying despite a firmer dollar. U.S. stocks retreated as investors reviewed the latest corporate earnings results and grappled with fears of the coronavirus spreading.

Coronavirus Epidemic Emphasizes the Need to Buy Gold -CCN
"This Coronavirus outbreak, coupled with the several other risks that lie ahead, can cause gold price to soar in 2020. China delayed the reporting of the SARS outbreak to the World Health Organization (WHO) in 2003. By the time they reported the illness, it had already claimed 774 lives and infected 8,098 people in 30 countries. China even hid patients from WHO authorities. The disease caused Chinese GDP to shrink by 0.8 percentage point in 2003. You can bank on China doing the same with this new strain, which has never been identified and has no vaccine. The disease has already made its way into the U.S., as confirmed by CDC. Thousands could already be infected. The mystery illness couldn't have come at a worse time as 2020 is shaping up to be a year of economic and geopolitical uncertainties. Now, it looks like a perfect recipe for a global meltdown is forming, and it makes a strong case for the gold price to soar....The world's biggest hedge fund, Bridgewater Associates, recently slapped a $2,000 price target on gold, citing global uncertainties."

credit score FICO Changes Could Lower Your Credit Score -Wall Street Journal
"Changes in how the most widely used credit score in the U.S. is calculated will likely make it harder for many Americans to get loans. Fair Isaac Corp., creator of FICO scores, will soon start scoring consumers with rising debt levels and those who fall behind on loan payments more harshly. The changes will create a bigger gap between consumers deemed to be good and bad credit risks, the company says. Consumers with already-high FICO scores of about 680 or higher who continue to manage loans well will likely get a higher score than under previous FICO versions. Those with already-low scores below 600 who continue to miss payments or accumulate other black marks will experience bigger score declines than under previous models....The new FICO changes reflect a shift in U.S. lenders' confidence in the economy, which has been expanding for more than 10 years. Consumer loan losses remain low compared with during the last recession, but consumer debts are at record highs, with many Americans forced to rely on debt to help fund their everyday lives."

Global Stocks Slide, China Plunges Most Since May As Optimism Virus Is Contained Mutates To Pessimism -Zero Hedge
"Yesterday's optimism that China's coronavirus epidemic is contained (supposedly because Beijing was 'transparent' with the fiasco and Trump was convinced by Xi) which sent S&P futures to an all time high of 3,333 has mutated into pessimism that it isn't...after China quarantined two cities (one with 11 million, the other with 6 million people), which sent US equity futures and global markets sliding and Chinese stocks tumbling. The global risk off mood, was led by the biggest decline in Chinese stocks in more than eight months, as concerns mounted that the spread of a deadly virus in China is now beyond Beijing's control and will affect everything from tourism to corporate sales and economies. With millions of Chinese preparing to travel for the Lunar New Year which begins on Saturday, the potential the disease to spread, along with the tendency of traders to reduce their exposure before holidays, left markets struggling. Deaths in China from the coronavirus rose to 17 on Wednesday, with nearly 600 cases confirmed.... 'The coronavirus has introduced some caution,' said Michael McCarthy, chief market strategist at CMC Markets in Sydney. 'There is no reason to expect a global pandemic now, but there is some repricing in financial markets.'"

The Year of the Demock Rat -Ponte/WND
"This Jan. 25 is Chinese New Year - year 4718 - for the quarter of humankind with historic roots in China. The Chinese lunar calendar is based on a 12-year cycle of a dozen animals - rat, ox, tiger, rabbit, dragon, snake, horse, sheep, monkey, rooster, dog and pig. We are entering a Year of the Rat...Chinese 'Ruler for life' Xi Jinping was born June 15, 1953, in an unfortunate 'year of the snake.' Such 'snake people,' are purported to be skilled, bright and motivated, but also proud, materialistic, vain, venomous, scheming, cunning and can speak with a 'forked tongue.' Democratic presidential aspirant Sen. Bernie Sanders, I-Vt., born Sept. 8, 1941, is also a snake person. So is fellow socialist Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, D-N.Y., born Oct. 13, 1989....Are we more bothered by the politically promoted 'global warming' propaganda to scare infantile ignoramuses into socialism - or by the fact that Australia has just arrested 180 people, including leftist activists, some of whom had fire accelerants in their possession and as arsonists may have started the infernos of unwisely planted 'gasoline tree' eucalyptus forests, like those in California?....Popular socialist Sen. Bernie Sanders...as of this writing has refused to fire his paid state presidential campaign field organizer Kyle Jurek. Jurek was videotaped saying that Milwaukee will be burned down this summer if Sanders is not given the Democratic convention's nomination....In this year of the Demock Rat, one of America's two political parties has repudiated democracy, which means that those who lose elections are to let the winners govern. Instead, Democrats have used their partisans in the bureaucracy, judiciary and media to 'resist' President Donald Trump, to roadblock his policies from undoing leftist government....These glazed-eyed 'woke' partisans have made clear that whatever they cannot rule, they will ruin. As one of their revealing mob chants goes: 'No Trump, no wall, no USA at all!' They aim to steal and dismantle the USA and replace it with a socialist global government."

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1.22.20 - The Bernie Sanders Fallacy -Brooks/NYT

Gold last traded at $1,556 an ounce. Silver at $17.82 an ounce.

NEWS SUMMARY: Precious metal prices traded mixed Wednesday on a flat dollar. U.S. stocks rebounded from the previous session's losses after the release of strong quarterly numbers from IBM.

Shocking Warning About The Coming Global Collapse -Egon von Greyerz/King World News
"Physical gold is eternal and paper gold ephemeral...With a paper market in gold that totally dominates gold trading and distorts the price of gold, it is easy for most people to forget what gold is all about...Take heed of this before the collapse of the fake gold paper market together with most paper assets....Stocks continue to make new highs, reacting to renewed money printing. Technically stocks are still likely to top within the next couple of weeks and start its long term decline. There are of course different opinions without which there would be no market. The biggest online financial publisher in the world just sent out an invitation to subscribe to yet another service which predicts: 'The final stage of biggest financial market explosion in US history.' In markets anything is possible short term but this seems very unlikely to me....Gold's correction since August 2019 is now finished and the uptrend is ready to resume. Next short term target is at least $1,700, but the old high in US dollars of 1,920 should not be difficult to attain...The best protection is to own an eternal asset like physical gold."

Davos 'Absurd' Davos has become an 'international bunfight' -Financial News London
"The World Economic Forum - the annual summit attended by world leaders, billionaires and celebrities - has lost its charm. That is the damning verdict from Sir Martin Sorrell, who has been attending the event at the Swiss ski resort for more than three decades...'When it was smaller, it used to be a learning experience,' said the former boss and founder of WPP....The summit, now in its 50th year, has come under fire for being 'out of touch' and 'too commercial', and critics have questioned how the number of private planes flying in can be justified at a time when climate change is top of the agenda....Nearly 3,000 official guests will attend Davos this year. They will pay an admission fee of 27,000 Swiss francs ( £21,400), for access to events, panel discussions and speeches. 'I profoundly disapprove of this international bunfight where the world's executives and the glitterati press the flesh at enormous expense of either their respective taxpayers or shareholders, achieving very little of note in almost 50 years. Absurd, in fact, disgraceful,' said longtime City commentator David Buik....Private equity tycoon Jon Moulton said he has not been to Davos in 15 years. 'The only likely consequence of it closing would be that some oversized egos would need to find alternative routes to gratification,' he said."

Central Bank-Driven "˜Ponzi Scheme' Must Collapse -Bloomberg Quint
"Scott Minerd has a message for his fellows at Davos who are applauding rallying markets: Things aren't as good as they seem. The Guggenheim Partners investment chief likened the inflation of asset prices caused by the loose money policies of central banks to a 'ponzi scheme' that eventually must collapse. 'We will reach a tipping point when investors will awake to the rising tide of defaults and downgrades,' he wrote in a letter from the World Economic Forum meeting. 'The timing is hard to predict, but this reminds me a lot of the lead-up to the 2001 and 2002 recession.' Minerd cited rising defaults despite a rally in riskier assets, and reiterated a warning that BBB-rated bonds risk further downgrades. He said that type of debt is at a greater risk of deterioration than it was in 2007."

The Bernie Sanders Fallacy -Brooks/New York Times
"This is a golden age for 'Theyism.' This is the belief that there is some malevolent, elite 'they' out there and 'they' are destroying life for the rest of us. There is Donald Trump's culture-war Theyism: The coastal cultural elites hate genuine Americans, undermining our values and opening our borders. And there is Bernie Sanders's class-war Theyism: The billionaires have rigged the economy to benefit themselves and impoverish everyone else. Each of these stories takes a genuine tension in society and blows it up into an all-explaining cartoon in which one part of America is trying to destroy the other part....Democrats seem to be rushing to join Sanders's class war...even though it's political suicide. Class-war progressivism always loses to culture-war conservatism because swing voters in the Midwest care more about their values - guns, patriotism, ending abortion, masculinity, whatever - than they do about proletarian class consciousness...The Sanders class-war story is wrong....Sanders starts with a truth: Workers need more bargaining power as they negotiate wages with their employers. But then he blows this up into an all-explaining ideology: Capitalism is a system of exploitation in which capitalist power completely dominates worker power. This ideology crashes against the facts. In the first place, over the past few years wages for workers toward the bottom of the income stream have been rising faster than wages for those toward the top....The core problem is not capitalists exploiting their workers; it's the rise of productivity inequality. It's the companies and individuals who don't have the skills to take advantage of new technologies. The real solution, therefore, is not class war to hammer successful businesses. It's to boost and expand productivity for everybody else. That's done the old-fashioned way - by having better schools and better vocational training, by having more open competitive markets, by creating incentives to expand investment, by making sure superstar businesses don't use lobbyists to lock in their advantages...If you want to deal with our real problems, stop the us/them warfare and start dealing with productivity inequality...Every time we increase productivity for one person, we all thrive a little more, together."

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1.21.20 - Fed: QE by Any Other Name is Still QE

Gold last traded at $1,558 an ounce. Silver at $17.83 an ounce.

NEWS SUMMARY: Precious metal prices paused Tuesday awaiting fresh economic and geopolitical news. U.S. stocks fell as concerns around U.S.-China trade relations and a virus outbreak in China halted the market's rally.

The Debate Over Whether to Call It QE Is Over, and the Fed Lost -Bloomberg
"In the court of investor opinion, the verdict is in. The Federal Reserve is guilty of quantitative easing. Never mind that Chairman Jerome Powell tells everyone his efforts to shore up funding markets are 'in no sense' QE. Try as policy makers may, they've lost the ability to convince people that Treasury purchases aren't at least partially why the Dow Jones Industrial Average is up almost 4,000 points since late August. Sure, it's all labels. If you want to call it QE, you can. Or not. If you want to ascribe the rally to Powell, that's up to you. Certainly the Fed thinks it's on solid ground. The problem for policy makers is that perceptions matter in shaping sentiment. If everyone believes central bank largess is pushing up prices, what happens in the market when it's turned off? 'Whether the Fed's liquidity injection impacted directly the economy or the pricing of assets or not, it's certainly true that a lot of people think it did,' said Jim Paulsen, Leuthold Group Inc.'s chief investment strategist....The wind-down of monthly purchases is the biggest risk facing investors face in 2020, strategists at John Hancock Investment Management said in December. 'Powell went out of his way to explain that it wasn't QE, but it doesn't really matter,' said Krishna Memani, former vice chairman of investments at Invesco. 'The Fed is in a bind. Effectively with policy initiatives they have, they have to increase reserves, and investors are aware of that. They will be in that mode for the foreseeable future.'"

gold chart Money managers retain bullish gold positioning -Kitco
"Large speculators mostly held onto their net-bullish positioning in gold futures during the most recent reporting week for data compiled by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC)....Net long or short positioning in the CFTC data reflect the difference between the total number of bullish (long) and bearish (short) contracts. Traders monitor the data to gauge the general mood of speculators, although excessively high or low numbers are viewed by many as signs of overbought or oversold markets that may be ripe for price corrections...The fresh buying (increase of 1,319 total longs) exceeded the fresh selling (increase of 617 gross shorts). TD Securities commented that the U.S. Federal Reserve policymakers may be about to provide a structurally 'more dovish lean' to policy, which propelled gold prices higher just ahead of the long holiday weekend in the U.S. 'The yellow metal rose, even as the greenback and equities rallied, which suggests that positioning may again tilt toward length in the days to come,' TDS said. In silver, money managers' net-long position also rose slightly, coming at 57,179 futures contracts, compared to 57,014 in the prior week. As was the case with gold, the fresh buying (rise of 2,763 total longs) outpaced the fresh selling (increase of 2,598 gross shorts)."

40% of the world's countries will witness civil unrest in 2020 -CNBC
"There are 195 countries in the world, if the Vatican and Palestine are included, and a newly released index of civil unrest has claimed that 47 of those states witnessed a rise in civil unrest in 2019. The data model, published Thursday by socio-economic and political analysis firm Verisk Maplecroft, has also predicted that in 2020, the number will balloon to 75 countries. Maplecroft's predictions for 2020 are bleak with both the number of countries witnessing protest and the intensity of unrest tipped to rise. The index predicts that 75 out of the 125 countries examined will see a deterioration in stability. That figure means almost 40% of all the world's 195 nations will witness disruption and protest to some degree....Countries identified in this troubling bracket include the highly influential nations of Russia, China, Saudi Arabia, Turkey, Thailand and Brazil."

Impeachment Moves Forward to Nowhere -Noonan/Wall Street Journal
"Impeachment is moving forward and going nowhere. There is new information but it doesn't really tell those who've paid attention anything they didn't know....The president will be acquitted for a host of reasons, from partisanship to a prudential judgment that his actions don't warrant removal with a presidential election 10 months away....Impeachment has now been normalized. It won't be a once-in-a-generation act but an every-administration act. To the Democratic debate Tuesday night in Des Moines....I found myself watching Elizabeth Warren. She has proved she can take a punch and throw one...Her challenge is not that she's a woman, it is her policies, and maybe something else...Ms. Warren was doing her magical thinking about how universal Medicare won't cost people a thing, it's all savings with a few small tax increases on people we don't like. I asked aloud, 'Does she believe what she says or does she know it's make-believe?'"....Bernie Sanders has the same magical thinking about the cost of things, who'll pay, and what effect that will have on the nation's life. But he gets away with it because he's a declared socialist....There was also in the debate a kind of detachment from real life. A voter asked: 'How will you prioritize accessing quality affordable child care?'...No one spoke with compassion for parents, for mothers who forgo the earnings and status ('I have a job') and relationships ('I'm not lonely all day') of having a job to stay home with kids under 4....Meanwhile in full-employment America, Donald Trump is taking out terrorists with drones and announcing trade deals with China and seemingly weathering every storm. In the China ceremony Tuesday, in the East Room, after a booming .'Hail to the Chief,' with a palpable sense of triumph filling the room, with the golden frames of the great portraits shining, Mr. Trump rolled off the names of the CEOs in the audience...It was reminiscent of the scene in 'The Godfather: Part II' where Fulgencio Batista hands around the solid gold telephone. 'I'd like to thank this distinguished group of American industrialists for continuing to work with Cuba for the greatest period of prosperity in her entire history. We all think our breathless recitations of the latest revelations matter but I don't know, it keeps feeling like 2016. Only this time with full employment."

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1.17.20 - College Degrees No Longer Create Wealth

Gold last traded at $1,559 an ounce. Silver at $18.07 an ounce.

NEWS SUMMARY: Precious metal prices rose Friday on bargain-hunting despite a firmer dollar. U.S. stocks rose as strong global economic data and a solid start to the earnings season led to another week of gains.

Your pension is being robbed, gold is only salvation -Kiyosaki/Kitco
"A ballooning retiree population over the coming years is likely to force the government to print more money in order to support pensioners, and this will create a good environment for gold, said Robert Kiyosaki, author of Who Stole My Pension? How You Can Stop the Looting. 'In the next ten years, two billion old guys like me will retire. Two billion, all over the world. This is a global crisis,' Kiyosaki told Kitco News. 'I'm buying gold and silver, I love silver, because it's cheap.' He added that the government will have to print more money to cover a massive shortfall of money for retirees."

QE hell The Federal Reserve is stuck in quantitative-easing hell -Marketwatch
"Imagine doing the same thing over and over again, with little progress and no relief. Sounds like most people's vision of hell - or the Federal Reserve's current predicament. Since September, the central bank, through the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, has been purchasing securities hand over fist to alleviate short-term pressures in the overnight money markets. It has used repurchase ('repo') and reverse repurchase ('reverse repo') agreements to provide liquidity and keep overnight borrowing rates from spiking...Powell and the Fed have repeatedly denied this is a new phase of 'quantitative easing (QE),' three rounds of which added $3.6 trillion to the Fed's balance sheet in the years after the financial crisis....Danielle DiMartino Booth, CEO of Dallas-based research firm Quill Intelligence, says the Fed is on the cusp of enacting QE4, or may already be there....'The Fed will tell you it's all technical in nature,' she said. 'In their last minutes, they said that if they had to move into [longer] coupons, they would. So the table has been set.' This all comes, Booth believes, amid a weakening economy....Booth points out that by several measures, 'outside of the year 2000 the stock market has never been as overvalued,' which means stock markets more than ever hinge on the Fed's every move. 'We have certainly started to see some signs of slowing, and I think Jay Powell is trapped,' said Booth. 'The Fed is trying to keep a bucket full that's filled with holes.' Welcome to QE - or not QE - hell."

Political Turmoil to Be 'New Normal' for 2020 -Yahoo News
"'We all need to buckle up for 2020,' said Miha Hribernik, the Singapore-based head of Asia risk insight for Verisk Maplecroft. 'The rage that caught many governments off-guard last year isn't going anywhere and we'd all better adapt.' Many governments were caught by surprise by the scale and ferocity of the protests and ended up attempting to crackdown on the movements, deploying what human rights group have said were arbitrary arrests and indiscriminate violence. That response has ended up further radicalizing protesters and provoking more violent demonstrations, Verisk Maplecroft said in its Political Risk Outlook 2020....Hong Kong similarly rose from 117th to 26th after seven months of pro-democracy street protests, the firm said. Although prompted by a since-withdrawn bill that would have allowed extraditions to mainland China, Verisk Maplecroft added that the 'root cause of discontent has been the rollback of civil and political rights since 1997.' India and Iraq, which have both seen determined protests recently, ranked much lower on the list of worsening hot spots because they began last year with heightened levels of unrest."

College Degrees Used to Make Families Wealthier. That's No Longer True -Worth
"The conventional wisdom is that a college education all but guarantees access to the middle class and a higher standard of living for each successive generation. Yet new research from the Federal Reserve Bank of Saint Louis calls this equation into question. The numbers are stark. The college income premium still exists. But the wealth premium - the difference in net worth between college and non-college graduates - has plunged since 1940. Put simply: College graduates today are experiencing a profound struggle to generate wealth. The biggest culprit is likely the surging cost of higher education and an accompanying increase in student loan debt...This is a 'striking divergence between the income and wealth outcomes.'....'While the overall level of consumer prices has increased by a factor of four since 1978,' the report says, 'the cost of college tuition and fees has increased by a factor of almost 14 - more than triple the overall increase in consumer prices.' These two trends, the slump in household net worth and the drastic rise in student loan debt, are becoming increasingly acute...Total student loan debt has reached $1.46 trillion, compared to $870 billion for credit card debt and $1.27 trillion for automotive debt."

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1.16.20 - Bridgewater Sees Gold Price Spiking 30%

Gold last traded at $1,551 an ounce. Silver at $17.97 an ounce.

NEWS SUMMARY: Precious metal prices eased Thursday as upbeat economic data boosted the dollar. U.S. stocks rose after Morgan Stanley's quarterly figures topped analyst expectations as investors cheered solid economic data.

Bridgewater sees gold spiking 30% to a record high -Markets Insider
"Gold could spike 30% to a record high of over $2,000 an ounce as central banks allow inflation and political fears mount, Bridgewater Associates boss Greg Jensen told the Financial Times. The Federal Reserve and other central banks won't clamp down on inflation or raise interest rates in the near term, supporting a higher gold price, said Ray Dalio's co-chief at the world's largest hedge fund. 'That's a big deal.' Gold could also benefit from the widening gap between rich and poor Americans, and rising tensions between the US and China, Iran, and others, Jensen told the Financial Times. 'There is so much boiling conflict, that gold being part of a portfolio makes sense to us.' In fact, rising inflation and soaring budget and trade deficits could lead to gold eventually replacing the US dollar as the world's reserve currency, Jensen told the newspaper. 'When you look at the geopolitical strife, how many foreign entities really want to hold dollars?' he said. 'What are they going to hold? Gold stands out because it's nobody else's liabilities as a possibility.'....US stocks are also 'frothy' after a decade of outperformance, Jensen told the newspaper, providing another reason to favor gold."

trade deal $95 Billion Centerpiece of the Trade Deal Is Already In Doubt -Bloomberg/Yahoo Finance
"China has pledged to buy almost $95 billion worth of additional U.S. commodities as part of a phase one trade deal. The market is not so sure. Prices fell for most raw materials that are part of the agreement...Traders said evidence of increases in shipments is needed for market gains. The pessimism was in contrast to comments at the White House by President Donald Trump, who said U.S. energy producers and farmers would benefit....'Signing the deal is the easy part,' said Ken Morrison, a St. Louis-based independent commodity trader. 'I have yet to hear a sound argument on how China will execute this deal.' China pledged to buy a total of $32 billion in additional agricultural products over the next two years, while it said it will also 'strive' for another $10 billion of purchases. That includes oil seeds, meat, cereals, ethanol and cotton. It also promised $52.4 billion in further purchases of American energy such as LNG, crude oil and coal over 2020 and 2021. However, the so-called phase-one deal that was signed in Washington Wednesday didn't specify whether the Asian nation will lift retaliatory duties it imposed on American goods such as oil, soybeans and LNG....'Without more concrete details, we are deeply concerned that all of this pain may not have been worth it,' the National Farmers Union, which represents almost 200,000 American farmers, said in a statement. 'Given the numerous deals that have been reached and then breached in the past two years, we are also skeptical.'"

The Fed Admits Being Forced To Fuel Asset Bubble -Zero Hedge
"The worst kept secret in the financial world is now not only accepted orthodoxy, but finally being discussed openly by, at least some, authorities. Central bank policies are directly driving asset prices and the bubbles therein. It's what they do. It has been so stunningly obvious that, at this point, it makes a mockery of things to deny it as an ongoing, and essential, part of how their strategy is implemented....In some ways it was refreshing that Dallas Fed President Robert Kaplan openly talked about it in an interview Wednesday. Although he did couch it in terms that implied it was a matter of some concern to him. But, of course, he went on to say, 'we've done what we need to do up until now.' 'My own view is it's having some effect on risk assets,' Kaplan said. 'It's a derivative of QE when we buy bills and we inject more liquidity; it affects risk assets. This is why I say growth in the balance sheet is not free. There is a cost to it.'...Their ability to drive investor behavior is so well established that what is going on in the markets can't remotely be seen as an unintended, or even unwanted, consequence....Stocks act as if they are bullet-proof. Stock buy-backs look like they are front-running the inevitable rather than being the cause of it. Reports of new all-time highs, need to include the word 'again.'....Most worryingly, I keep hearing from people who are sure that it's obvious where we go from here."

Trump Impeachment Trial Begins -Wall Street Journal
"The impeachment trial of President Trump on charges of abuse of power and obstruction of Congress will begin in the U.S. Senate on Thursday with a ceremonial reading of the House-passed articles and a solemn swearing-in of all 100 senators, who will pledge to do 'impartial justice.' The moment will mark the official start of the trial - only the third such proceeding against a U.S. president in history. At least two-thirds of the senators would have to vote to convict Mr. Trump to remove him from office. Mr. Trump has denied wrongdoing. At 2 p.m., Chief Justice John Roberts, who will preside, will arrive at the Capitol to be sworn in by Sen. Chuck Grassley (R., Iowa), the Senate's president pro tempore....'We will pledge to rise above petty factionalism and do justice for our institutions, for our states, and for the nation,' Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell (R., Ky.) said on the floor on Wednesday evening. After the swearing-in, the Senate will formally notify the White House of the pending trial and summon Mr. Trump, but he will be given time to reply....During the trial, all senators will be warned by the Sergeant at Arms to remain silent 'on pain of imprisonment' and will be expected to be present and seated at their assigned desks. 'It's a place apart from the normal Senate business,' said Sen. Dianne Feinstein (D., Calif.), who also was a senator during the Clinton trial. 'The minute you walk in, it's electric with significance,' she said."

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1.15.20 - 2020 Outlook: America At The Crossroads

Gold last traded at $1,544 an ounce. Silver at $17.80 an ounce

NEWS SUMMARY: Precious metal prices rose Wednesday on bargain-hunting and a weaker dollar. U.S. stocks rose ahead of the U.S. and China signing a so-called phase one trade deal amid upbeat corporate earnings.

Central Banks Continue "Remarkable" Gold-Buying Spree -Zero Hedge
"Central banks continued their remarkable gold-buying spree...and remain on pace to eclipse 2018's near-record purchases....In 2018, central banks purchased just over 650 tons. According to the WGC, that was the highest level of annual net central bank gold purchases since the suspension of dollar convertibility into gold in 1971, and the second-highest annual total on record....For the second month in a row, the People's Bank of China did not report any gold purchases. It's not uncommon for China to go silent and then suddenly announce a large increase in reserves. The World Gold Council called the scale of central bank gold purchases in 2019 'remarkable.' The central bank gold-buying spree is expected to continue into 2020 as countries continue to create a hedge against geopolitical risk and diversify their reserves away from the US dollar."

RMP2020 America At The Crossroads -Real Money Perspectives/Swiss America
"America was founded upon sacred principles, which built the world's strongest economy; but today our position as the world's leader is at risk. Our nation's social and economic divide is approaching a boiling point. Unless cooler heads prevail, we may soon face an even more disunited United States. Solutions demand unity and clarity of vision. In 2020 it will be important for investors to remove their rose-colored glasses and take a hard look at what is going on in the economic and political world. The problem with looking at the world through rose-colored glasses is all of life's red flags look just like ordinary flags. The truth is, no one can predict the economic or political outcome of 2020, which is precisely why wise investors cover all the bases; regardless of which way the political winds blow. Our goal in this 38th Anniversary Issue of Real Money Perspectives is to elevate your perspective so you may better navigate the future. CLICK HERE to request a free copy.

Weakening Dollar Could Lift Commodities in 2020 -Wall Street Journal
"A softening U.S. dollar could give commodity prices a boost this year. After a year in which a strong dollar weighed on commodity prices, some banks now predict the U.S. dollar is set to weaken in 2020, dragged lower by expectations that the Federal Reserve will keep interest rates steady after recent cuts. Lower interest rates make a currency less attractive to investors, as they offer lower rates of return. That could herald good news in 2020 for investors already betting that easing trade tensions between the U.S. and China and a pickup in global growth will lift demand for commodities like metals and crude oil....'When there's weakness in the dollar, the usual response is to pick up things that are priced in dollars,' said Tai Wong, head of base and precious metals derivatives trading at Bank of Montreal."

Bernie's Senior Economic Advisor Sees No Problem in Printing Unlimited Money -Youngberg/FEE.org
"Much like I can create as many strong recommendations [for my economics students] as I want, Modern Monetary Theory notes that a country has a god-like power to create its own currency. Therefore, they argue, countries that control their own currency shouldn't bother budgeting. Budgeting is for us mere mortals. The theory turns out to be little more than a recipe for hyperinflation, but that didn't stop Stephanie Kelton, Bernie Sanders's senior economic advisor, from sending out this tweet: 'The carpenter can't run out of inches, The stadium can't run out of points, The airline can't run out of FF miles, And the USA can't run out of dollars.' Kelton conveniently does not mention that carpenters can run out of wood, the stadium can run out of seats, and the airline can run out of fuel. The ability of a country's economy to grow restrains the government's ability to print money without causing inflation. Money is spent to buy resources; if money far exceeds resources, inflation follows....And if a country created more money than its economy could possibly justify, its money would mean nothing (something too many countries have learned the hard way)....So it's true that the US can't run out of dollars. It is also true that you can't run out of zeros, which will be important if the nation has to measure inflation under MMT."

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1.14.20 - A Trade Deal Neither US/China Wanted

Gold last traded at $1,544 an ounce. Silver at $17.80 an ounce.

NEWS SUMMARY: Precious metal prices drifted lower Tuesday on profit-taking and a firmer dollar. U.S. stocks traded mixed despite J.P. Morgan Chase and Citigroup posting stronger-than-forecast quarterly results.

World's super-rich are hoarding physical gold -RT Business News
"The strategic case for owning gold remains strong, according to analysts at Goldman Sachs. They point to such factors as political uncertainty, recession fears and other worries among the global elite. Data from Goldman research showed that owning the physical metal seems to be the global elite's preferred way to hedge against tail events. Physical buying of gold has increased at a rapid pace in the past three years, statistics showed. 'Since the end of 2016 the implied build in non-transparent gold investment has been much larger than the build in visible gold ETFs (Exchange-traded funds),' Goldman said in a note sent to clients and seen by Yahoo Finance....'Political risks, in our view, help explain this, because if an individual is trying to minimize the risks of sanctions or wealth taxes, then buying physical gold bars and storing them in a vault - where it is more difficult for governments to reach them - makes sense.' The investment bank added: 'Finally, this build can also reflect hedges by global high net worth individuals against tail economic and political risk scenarios in which they do not want to have any financial entity intermediating their gold positions due to the counter-party credit risk involved.'"

dollar "This Is Insanity!" - Jim Rogers Warns Of "Horrible Time" Ahead -Zero Hedge
"The Fed has increased its balance sheet over 500% in the past decade; The Bank of Japan is printing money to buy bonds and stock ETFs; and The European Central Bank is mired in insane negative interests. And, according to legendary investor Jim Rogers, they will continue this 'madness' as long as its necessary. In an interview with RT's Boom Bust, Rogers exclaims, that interest rates around the world have never been this low: '... this is insanity, that's not how sound economic systems are supposed to work.' In 2008, Rogers notes that we had problems because of too much debt, however, 'since then the debt has skyrocketed everywhere and it's going higher and higher. We are going to have a horrible time when this all comes to an end.'...Rogers warns that central banks will print even more and buy even more assets. 'And that's when we will have very serious problems... We all are going to pay a horrible price someday but in the meantime it's a lot of fun for a lot of people.' When it comes to an end, Rogers laments, 'it will be the worst of my lifetime.'"

How the U.S. and China Settled on a Trade Deal Neither Wanted -Wall Street Journal
"U.S. talks with China to complete a first-stage trade deal had hit an impasse around Thanksgiving, raising fears a nascent accord would collapse again - and with it, hope for a halt to the nearly two-year-old trade war. Looking for a direct route to the president, Chinese Ambassador Cui Tiankai spoke with President Trump's son-in-law and adviser, Jared Kushner, say people familiar with the episode. The U.S. offer didn't roll back enough tariffs, he told Mr. Kushner. It was time to settle, Mr. Kushner responded...The agreement wouldn't force China to make economic-policy changes Washington had long insisted on. About two weeks later, both sides announced the compromise set to be signed at a White House ceremony Wednesday. The accord promises increased purchases of U.S. goods and services, greater access for American firms to China's banking, insurance and other financial sectors, an end to tariff threats - and a chance to reset relations between the world's largest economies. Even so, the deal isn't what either side said it had wanted. The U.S. doesn't get the fundamental reforms in Chinese economic policy it sought to help American businesses. And levies remain on about $370 billion of China's exports....Chinese officials feel they have little to gain from a phase-two deal forcing Beijing to ease state control of the economy, and Mr. Trump recently said that a phase-two agreement probably wouldn't conclude until after the Nov. 3 election."

Yes, Democrats will 'debate' each other. But Trump (and his rivals) should be asked about THIS -Thomas/Fox News
"As high-minded as most Democrats try to sound when trying to remove President Trump from office, their real motives appear transparent. Out of touch doesn't begin to describe most people running for, or seeking to remain, in office. They consult pollsters for what people want to hear, instead of telling them what they need to hear. It's like gratifying children by allowing them to eat their dessert first and if they have no room or interest in vegetables, it's OK. Politicians, including the president, should be asked serious questions during this year's election campaign, instead of the media's fixation on impeachment, polls and the horse race. Here are a few that come to mind: 1. Government is bigger than ever, far larger and more intrusive than our Founders anticipated and warned us about...Would you be willing to identify them and if elected (or reelected) terminate them? 2. The national debt is $23 trillion and the deficit is at record highs...Do you have the courage to lead on this issue? 3. President Trump has wanted to pull American troops out of areas where wars never seem to end, but circumstances have prevented him from fully doing so...Should the U.S. be policing the world and if so, why? If not, why not?....There are other questions you might think of, but the answers to these would get the attention of voters, unlike the bad drama that is about to play out in Washington this week and who knows for how many more days and weeks to come?"

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1.13.20 - Extreme Greed Fuels Market Bubble

Gold last traded at $1,550 an ounce. Silver at $18.01 an ounce.

NEWS SUMMARY: Precious metal prices eased Monday on profit-taking and a firmer dollar. U.S. stocks rose as geopolitical tensions dissipated while investors felt optimistic about U.S.-China trade relations.

Gold may gain up to 10% this year as geopolitical risks, lower US interest rates push price to $1,700 -Analysts/South China Morning News
"The tentative easing of tensions in the Middle East in the second half of last week caused the price of gold to pull back from a seven-year high. But analysts see further gains in store for the yellow metal this year, with $1,700 per ounce achievable on the back of sustained geopolitical risks and lower US interest rates....Fueling gold's spike early last week was a rush to the traditional safe haven asset after Iran fired at least a dozen missiles at military bases in Iraq that hosted American personnel, in retaliation for the US' assassination of its top general, Qassem Soleimani, on January 3....ING expects the US Federal Reserve to cut the short-term federal funds rate in April, which will send the real yield of US treasuries lower. This will provide further support for gold, because as short term real interest rates decline, the opportunity cost of holding gold also drops. Jasper Lo, an independent market commentator, said he would not be surprised to see gold hitting $1,700 per ounce in 2020, echoing a call made earlier last year by billionaire investor Paul Tudor Jones, founder of macro-trading hedge fund firm Tudor Investment. Uncertainty stemming from the geopolitical tension in the Middle East is further compounded by the US-China trade war...'It appears that Chinese officials are reluctant to start the second round any time soon, this means that the outlook for US-China trade negotiations beyond January would still remain bumpy,' said Lo."

interest rates Negative Interest Rates: The Logical Absurdity -Kalinowski/Enterprising Investor
"It is not uncommon for the word 'absurd' or its derivatives to accompany discussions of negative nominal interest rates. A healthy proportion of financial opinion makers describe the phenomenon as a fundamental violation of the first principles of finance....Here is the problem: There is not enough collateral. So financial institutions will pay 'anything' for it, including 'guaranteed' losses on sovereign debt, assuming the government obligation is held to maturity, which it is not. These negative-yielding bonds are not investments but balance-sheet management tools....The example of It's a Wonderful Life should lend itself to your analyst's mind. George and Mary Bailey sacrificed their honeymoon savings on an unsecured basis to keep Bailey Bros. Building & Loan Association solvent until the bank run panic ended. But outside of their town of Bedford Falls and after 2008, banks need to put up collateral to access honeymoon savings - or any other kind of short-term funding. They do so to meet obligations and regulatory requirements without being forced to sell their long-term investments. Thus, the hamartia (fatal flaw) is exposed. A global monetary order, organized over the course of five decades around access to unsecured, interbank short-term funding, is now obliged to secure its funding. At the same time, the expectations of politicians, monetary technocrats, and the public are unchanged. The whole creaking locomotive is all supposed to puff along as it always has....It is no wonder then that those who have access to the most liquid, fluid, and important collateral are hoarding it like the past holiday season's most popular children's toy. Except that in this sempiternal season, 'It is always winter, never Christmas,' to quote C. S. Lewis. It is a self-reinforcing cycle: no trust, not enough new collateral, hoarding of existing collateral, impeding economic potential, further reducing trust, further dimming economic potential, etc. Negative interest rates are a 'logical' consequence of the larger, absurd picture: an unacknowledged, silent depression...By rearranging the letters of 'depression,' a solution to the problem is revealed: 'I pressed on.'"

Popping The Bubble -Zero Hedge
"Now that we have an open admission from the Fed that their balance sheet expansion is exacerbating asset prices and creating excess and imbalances, the term bubble can no longer be dismissed as some fringe rantings by cranks like me, but rather a recognition for what any bubble is: An overpricing of asset prices far above where they should be based on earnings, fundamentals or the growth basis of the economy. The question on everybody's mind of course: When does the rally end, when will the bubble get popped? You know it's bad when even bulls call for corrections but can't get any. In December what seemed an aggressive call for 3,333 $SPX by March 3rd by BAML already looks overly conservative as $SPX got within a stone's throw of 3,300 on January 10....None of this is new. We've seen bubbles before that brought about major pain when the excess and imbalances were wrought out following a period of extreme greed and complacency. And it's fair to say that this the environment we're in now as CNN's fear and greed model appears to now have settled into what seems an unprecedented permanent full greed mode."

The End of Retirement -Wall Street Journal
"People spend a lot of time wondering if they'll have the means to retire, often ignoring the equally important calculation: Do they have the will to retire? A job, historically seen as simply a way to make money, is increasingly the source of the types of friendship and stimulation that are hard to find in bingo halls, on beaches or riding a golf cart....'When people leave school it's not going to be for 25- or 30-year careers, it's going to be for a 50-year career,' says economist Olivia Mitchell, a professor at the University of Pennsylvania's Wharton School of Business....Patagonia, the outdoor clothing maker, is among an army of companies analyzing how it will deal with a rising tide of older employees. Dean Carter, the California company's human-resources chief, says the company is intent on providing a 'glide path' for people nearing retirement who don't want to simply fall off a 'cliff.'...The company realized it would be a mistake to see its 'elders' walk out the door because there wasn't a way for them to work less formal schedules, and began to implement changes. The company's longtime editor, for instance, has left her day-to-day role editing company materials, but she is teaching younger charges how to write in the 'Patagonia voice,' Mr. Carter says. Other elders are spending time in the lunchroom at the Ventura, Calif., headquarters passing down stories; traveling the world lecturing on the company's culture; or conducting sessions on the environment."

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1.10.20 - One major reason you shouldn't sell gold right now -CNBC

Gold last traded at $1,559 an ounce. Silver at $18.12 an ounce.

NEWS SUMMARY: Precious metal prices rose Friday on bargain-hunting and a flat dollar. U.S. stocks hit record highs despite weaker-than-expected jobs data as Wall Street concluded a volatile week chock-full of geopolitical concerns.

One major reason why you shouldn't sell gold right now -Longview/CNBC
"Gold is often used as a hedge against inflation, in other words, to protect the decreased purchasing power of a currency resulting from its loss of value due to rising prices....Longview Economics CEO Chris Watling suggested that the one key reason not to bet against gold prices continuing to climb would be the Fed's repo program, an ongoing operation to soothe the overnight lending market. 'It is putting a lot of liquidity, a lot of dollar money, into the system, and that is supporting the price,' he added. Analysts have been broadly bullish on gold of late, with Goldman Sachs expecting a base case for it to trade at $1,600 per troy ounce...Goldman's Global Head of Commodities Research Jeff Currie told CNBC's 'Street Signs' on Friday that with the right combination of circumstances, gold could push even higher through 2020. 'Gold is a hedge against debasement and what we saw in 2011 was debasement, printing too many dollars and the real rate goes down, down, down, which then pushes up the price of gold,'....'If you do see that, the potential to push gold back up into that $1,800-$1,900 range becomes pretty realistic,' he added."

stocks 77% Of CFOs Say Stock Market Is Overvalued Even As They Order Record Stock Buybacks -Zero Hedge
"Over the past two years, a dramatic, profound divergence emerged between consumer and CEO (or corporate professional) confidence, with the former soaring to record highs while the latter tumbling to financial crisis levels....The biggest paradox is CFO sentiment toward the market: as the S&P hits new record highs on an almost daily basis every day since the Fed launched QE4 last October, 77% of respondents said stocks are overvalued, the highest level in nearly two years. Just 4% said equities are undervalued, down from 10% in the last reading. Why is this a paradox? Because while over three-quarters CFOs lament just how expensive the market has become, virtually all of them are scrambling to repurchase their 'overvalued' stock, with total buybacks in 2018 and 2019 hitting record highs on largely thanks to Trump's tax law, which allowed US corporations to repatriate about $1.5 trillion in offshore cash, much of which was then used by companies to buy back their stock....So while most corporate Corner Suites are now convinced all stocks are overvalued, they keep a special place in their heart for their own stock... as the higher their own stock goes, the greater their equity-linked comp. In other words, while most agree stocks are overvalued, they will keep buying (back) these overvalued stocks as their pay literally depends on it. Meanwhile, as everyone rushes to buyback their own stock, the entire market just gets even more overvalued, and it is up to the Fed to make sure not even a modest market correction takes place, or else the correction will promptly transform into a full-blown crash."

Dow crosses 29,000 for first time -Fox Business
"The Dow Jones Industrial Average climbed above 29,000 for the first time despite the December jobs report falling short of expectations. All three of the major averages were trading in record territory. The U.S. economy added 145,000 nonfarm jobs in December, the Labor Department said on Friday, missing economists' estimates of 164,000. 'The number was a touch lighter than expectations but showed solid payrolls and wage growth, which should be enough to keep the consumer spending and the economy muddling along,' said Sameer Samana, senior global market strategist at Wells Fargo Investment Institute. The unemployment rate held at 3.5 percent. The Dow crossing 29,000 is a 'signal that investors are more comfortable with the economy, the decrease in trade tensions and now the decrease in Middle East tensions,' said Chris Zaccarelli, chief investment officer at Independent Advisor Alliance...Looking at commodities, West Texas Intermediate crude oil was little changed at $59.50 a barrel and gold was up 0.1 percent at $1,556 an ounce."

Be Prepared for President Sanders -Wall Street Journal
"Bernie Sanders significantly outraised his Democratic presidential rivals in the final three months of 2019. He is very much in the hunt for the first three contests of the primary season. He has run second, behind Joe Biden, in national polls for most of the past year and matches up better head-to-head against President Trump than either Elizabeth Warren or Pete Buttigieg. When Sanders supporters complain that the political press isn't giving their guy the attention he deserves, they have a point. Odds are that the Vermont senator won't be the next president, but it isn't out of the question. The RealClearPolitics polling average has him leading in Iowa and New Hampshire and less than a point out of second place in Nevada, the third contest....Four years ago, Mr. Sanders virtually tied Hillary Clinton in the Iowa caucuses and easily won the New Hampshire primary....This year, Michael Bloomberg will be on the Super Tuesday ballots, and whatever votes he garners likely will come at the expense of fellow moderate Joe Biden, which could help Mr. Sanders. If his campaign starts strong, it's possible that the Democratic establishment could turn on Bernie like it did four years ago. But that runs the risk of alienating his large and enthusiastic base of supporters, and it's hard to see Democrats beating Mr. Trump without the Sandernistas chipping in....Mr. Sanders's socialism is the last thing America needs, and let's hope Democrats reject it. But in a country this divided, and with voters on both sides this motivated, the plain truth is that the president is vulnerable to anyone his opponents nominate."

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1.9.20 - Gold Prices Could Hit $3,000 by 2025

Gold last traded at $1,554 an ounce. Silver at $17.95 an ounce.

NEWS SUMMARY: Precious metal prices eased back Wednesday as Iran war fears faded and the dollar firmed. U.S. stocks hit fresh highs as geopolitical fears eased and tech shares outperformed.

Gold could hit $3,000 by 2025: expert -Yahoo Finance
"Gold prices pulled back on Wednesday after climbing above $1,600 for the first time in seven years as tensions between Iran and the United States simmered. Still, the commodity has been one of the best performing assets in the world and one strategist says it's only getting started. 'I think by 2025 gold will be at least $2,500 to $3,000 an ounce,' Heritage Capital's Paul Schatz told Yahoo Finance's On the Move. 'I don't think the rally is over in gold by any means.' Gold prices are up nearly 4% in just the first few weeks of 2020. Earlier this week, the commodity jumped as much as 2.4% after Iran attacked U.S.-led forces in Iraq in retaliation for a U.S. drone strike that killed an Iranian military commander last week. 'Gold sentiment's really hot right now - everybody loves gold,' Schatz said."

gold A New Gold Standard: Orderly Or Chaotic? -Rickards/Daily Reckoning
"Over the past century, monetary systems change about every 30 to 40 years on average. Before 1914, the global monetary system was based on the classical gold standard. Then in 1945, a new monetary system emerged at Bretton Woods...Under that system, the dollar became the global reserve currency, linked to gold at $35 per ounce. In 1971 Nixon ended the direct convertibility of the dollar to gold. For the first time, the monetary system had no gold backing. Today, the existing monetary system is nearly 50 years old, so the world is long overdue for a change. Gold should once again play a leading role....Slippage in the dollar's role as the leading global reserve currency is not necessarily something that would happen overnight, but is more likely to be a slow, steady process. Signs of this are already visible. In 2000, dollar assets were about 70% of global reserves. Today, the comparable figure is about 62%. If this trend continues, one could easily see the dollar fall below 50% in the not-too-distant future....Gold reserves at the People's Bank of China (PBOC) increased to 1948.31 tons in the fourth quarter of 2019. For comparison, it held 1,658 tonnes in June, 2015...Gold's been flowing to China in recent years, just as gold flowed to the U.S. before Bretton Woods. China is not alone in its efforts to achieve creditor status and to acquire gold. Russia has greatly increased its gold reserves over the past several years and has little external debt....Iran has also imported massive amounts of gold, mostly through Turkey and Dubai...The dollar collapse has already begun and the need for a new monetary order will need to emerge. The question is whether it will be an orderly process resulting from a new monetary conference, or a chaotic one. Unfortunately, it'll probably be chaotic."

Doubts over phase one trade deal as US-China ties 'still in deep trouble' -South China Morning Post
"The 'phase one' trade deal between China and the United States is unlikely to lead to a broader pact because 'excessive' demands by Washington have left Chinese officials feeling it is 'useless' to engage. That is the view of Jia Qingguo, one of Beijing's top foreign policy experts and a professor of international studies at Peking University. 'Despite the recent announcement that we are going to have the first phase agreement, [the] relationship between China and the US is still in deep trouble and is heading south rather than north. It is getting worse,' Jia told the Regional Outlook Forum 2020 hosted by the ISEAS-Yusof Ishak Institute in Singapore on Thursday. His comments came as plans were announced for a Chinese trade delegation, led by Vice-Premier Liu He, to travel to Washington on January 13 for the signing of an interim deal in the costly trade war between the world's two largest economies....A 'whole deal' might not be hammered out, as the Chinese believed the US demands were 'not about money but about life'. 'China's patience is wearing thin. US wants not just some concession from China, but to topple the Chinese government and contain China,' he said."

Top Repo Expert Warns Fed Is Now Trapped: "It Will Take Pain To Wean The Repo Market Off Easy Cash" -Zero Hedge
"Curvature Securities' Scott Skyrm writes in his daily Repo Market Commentary note, 'the total overnight and term Fed RP operations on Friday were greater than on year end! On year-end, the Fed had pumped a total of $255.95 billion into the market verses $258.9 billion on Friday.' The problem with the broken repo market and the Fed's respective Repo operations, similar to the problem observed with QE and the Fed's balance sheet in general over the past decade, is that the market had gotten addicted to the easy Fed liquidity unleashed in September (via temporary repo ops), and then again in October (via permanent T-Bill purchases). As Skyrm writes, 'it's easy to see how the Repo market can get addicted to easy cash from the Fed when the stop-out rates for the RP operations are 1.55% - behind the offered side of the market.' But, as the repo strategist adds, as the Fed keeps injecting cash, the market gets used to it....Skyrm cautions that 'it will take pain to wean the Repo market off of cheap Fed cash'....The longer the Fed avoids pulling the repo liquidity band-aid, the bigger the market fall when (if) it finally does. The question then becomes whether Powell can keep pushing on the repo string until the November election, because a market crash in the months preceding it, especially since it will be of the Fed's own doing, will result in a very angry president."

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1.8.20 - Gold Touches $1,600 on Iran Attack

Gold last traded at $1,559 an ounce. Silver at $18.17 an ounce.

NEWS SUMMARY: Precious metal prices steadied Wednesday after a spike following an overnight Iran attack. U.S. stocks opened flat as investors recovered from a steep overnight decline after Iran fired rockets at an Iraqi airbase that hosts American troops.

Gold retreats from $1,600 as markets eye US reaction after Iran attacks -CNBC
"Gold prices surged past the $1,600 level for the first time in nearly seven years earlier on Wednesday after Iran conducted retaliatory attacks against U.S. forces in Iraq, but the metal pared gains as investors awaited reaction from the White House. 'Gold is paring some gains right now as the retaliation was not seen as aggressive as the markets thought it would be and investors are booking profit for that reason,' Saxo Bank analyst Ole Hansen said. 'How gold will move from here is pinned on what U.S. President Donald Trump says when America wakes up,' Hansen added....The metal, considered a safe investment in times of political and economic uncertainties, was still supported as fears of a military lockdown in the Middle East remained. Gold further got a boost from a dip in equities markets."

Iran Iran Threatens Further Retaliation After Missile Strikes Against U.S. -Wall Street Journal
"Iranian Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei vowed further retaliation for the U.S.'s targeted killing of an Iranian commander, hours after striking military bases in Iraq that house U.S. forces...Ayatollah Khamenei, Iran's top spiritual and political authority, said Iran's end goal was to expel U.S. forces from the region. 'Last night, they were given one slap,' he said in a speech in the holy city of Qom broadcast live on state television. 'Such military actions are not enough as far the importance of retaliation is concerned. What's important is that their corruption-creating presence should end.'....A U.S. official said the attacks left no casualties but that a damage assessment was still under way. Iraqi security forces said 22 rockets fell on sites housing coalition forces, including two that didn't explode, but there were no casualties....The attacks were the latest blow in a rapidly escalating conflict between Tehran and Washington that has opened a new chapter in U.S.-Iranian hostilities and raised the risk of an outright military conflict....President Trump seemed to play down the Iranian attack. 'All is well! Missiles launched from Iran at two military bases located in Iraq. Assessment of casualties & damages taking place now. So far, so good!' Mr. Trump said on Twitter."

How Money Printing Contributes to America's Downward Spiral -Bonner/Bonner And Partners
"In a prosperous, civil society, win-win-deals between consenting adults add to the wealth of the country...And the government - with its naked, win-lose power - is held in check by culture, constitutions, checks and balances...and most important, by a scarcity of resources. A war society is a different matter. It is win-lose all the way"¦ and claims almost unlimited resources for the war effort....Today, we take up another bone-headed, society-destroying mistake of the 21st century...We're talking about money. When the money goes, everything goes. You can quote us on that....Stocks are at all-time highs, but only because of front-running by speculators and buy-backs by corporate insiders. Real, pre-tax earnings growth is falling. Unemployment is near all-time lows, but only because people are forced to take low-paying 'gigs' in the service economy. Real, 'bread-winner' jobs continue to disappear. GDP growth is still positive, but only because the Fed lends money below the rate of consumer price inflation....In a world of free money, conservatism no longer makes sense. Why worry about wasting money"¦ when you can print more? Over a nearly 50-year period since the fake money was introduced in 1971, the old conservatives disappeared, died, or became new conservatives - who joined the Liberals as supporters of Big, World-Improving Government."

'Buffett Indicator' Warns Stocks Doomed for Worse Crash Than 2008 -CCN
"Named after the widely-venerated 'Oracle of Omaha,' the Buffett indicator reflects Warren Buffett's characteristically simple thinking about stock values. It's the total stock market capitalization of the United States relative to U.S. GDP. If the indicator gets too top heavy, with the total market value of stocks significantly exceeding the productivity of the underlying companies, Buffett would say stock prices are due for a correction. The historical returns of the stock market back him up on that. Today the indicator is soaring at a harrowing record high. Just before the Dot Com Bubble collapsed, total U.S. market cap stood at 146% of GDP, according to the Federal Reserve's books. Right before the Great Recession that began at the end of 2007, the U.S. market cap was 137% of GDP. On the first day of trading in 2020, the Buffett indicator charted an ominous high of 153%, according to Wilshire data. As the stock market set records in the final quarter last year, the indicator rose 14% in one quarter. And corporate earnings growth is flat....If you go by the Buffett indicator, Wall Street is partying like it's 1999."

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1.7.20 - Is America Vulnerable to Iran Cyberwar?

Gold last traded at $1,574 an ounce. Silver at $18.42 an ounce.

NEWS SUMMARY: Precious metal prices rose again Tuesday on safe haven buying amid ongoing market jitters. U.S. stocks drifted lower as Wall Street assessed the growing geopolitical risks stemming from U.S.-Iran tensions.

'Endless buying for gold' could signal a shift to real fear in the stock market -Cramer/CNBC
"The investment community seems to be underestimating the potential fallout from rising tensions between the United States and Iran, CNBC's Jim Cramer warns. Just after Monday's opening bell on Wall Street, Cramer said on 'Squawk on the Street' that the key to the stock market is: 'Gold, gold, gold,' which was up for the ninth straight session. 'When I see this endless buying for gold it makes me think for the first time people are just saying, 'I'm really fearful,' said Cramer. He pointed out that the gold buying started even before Thursday night's U.S. drone strike in Iraq that killed top Iranian commander Gen. Qasem Soleimani as he was leaving Baghdad's airport....'The gold buying has been endless; over and over and over. It feels like gold wants to go to $1,700 to $1,800. Now that would be very negative for the [stock] market,' Cramer added."

cyberattack Cyberwar with Iran: How vulnerable is America? -USA Today
"The U.S. airstrike in Baghdad that killed Iranian General Qassem Soleimani on Friday will likely lead to retaliatory cyberattacks against America, security authorities say. That means the power and electricity you use, the smart devices you carry and your bank accounts could be more vulnerable than ever to bad actors looking for revenge....A cyber conflict between the U.S. and Iran has been silently raging for years, with hacking attempts from the Middle East being made every single day....Private-sector corporations, which include banking, health care and energy services, would be the primary targets, according to Paul Martini, co-founder of the network security platform iBoss. In the worst-case scenario, Iranian hackers 'could instantaneously shut down an entire power grid,' Martini said. 'It's not just the lights, it's also the internet which shuts down communication systems. Without shooting a single bullet or missile, you can shut down an entire county or nation.'....How can you protect yourself?...Use secure passwords. Save hard copies of information and write down phone numbers rather than relying on internet connectivity or devices."

Iran Evaluating 13 Retaliation Scenarios To Inflict "Historic Nightmare" On US -Zero Hedge
"Breaking a 5-day silence over its response for the US killing of General Qassem Soleimani, on Tuesday Iran said it was assessing 13 scenarios to inflict a 'historic nightmare' on the US. 'Even if the weakest of these scenarios gain a consensus, its implementation can be a historic nightmare for the Americans,' Ali Shamkhani, the head of Iran's national security council, was cited by Fars news agency, adding that, 'For now, for intelligence reasons, we cannot provide more information to the media.'....In response, the U.S. issued a warning to shipping in the Middle East over the possibility of Iranian action against U.S. maritime interests, the Associated Press reported, citing a statement. Soleimani's death has rippled through the Middle East, with the U.S. and its allies on high alert for a retaliation attack by Iran. Mohammad Javad Zarif, Iran's foreign minister, said Tuesday that the U.S. would suffer consequences for the killing of Soleimani 'at a time and place of Iran's choosing.' Zarif added the U.S. must leave the Middle East and warned that if they don't, a new multi-generational war could erupt....'We will surely take revenge, but if America dares takes any action, we will set alight those places Americans hold dear."....Earlier, President Trump outlined 52 Iranian sites that U.S. forces would attack if Iran dares to retaliate. And while the world awaits for Iran to pick one or more of the 13 scenarios, on Monday the Pentagon dispatched additional forces to the Middle East."

Triggering A Recession Tops The Dems' Presidential Agendas -Issues and Insights
"The 2020 Democratic presidential field is in near unanimous agreement that fracking has to be banned or at least regulated to death over time. It plays well to the party's base, especially its green fringe. It's also an endorsement of recession. Joe Biden, currently atop the Democratic primary polls, recently said he would 'love to 'ban fracking right now,' and would also 'love to make sure we can't use any oil or gas, period,' reports Common Dreams, a website that caters to leftist and socialist devotees....'If the U.S. imposed a fracking ban, the supply disruption would trigger the biggest oil and natural gas price spikes in history - almost certainly by more than 200% - which would, in turn, tip the world into recession,' Manhattan Institute Senior Fellow Mark Mills wrote last month in a policy brief.....A fracking ban appeals not only to the eco-radicals of the left, it would satisfy the Democrats' 'recession lust.' They, as well as their supporters touched by Trump Derangement Syndrome, need a downturn to 'get rid of Trump.' 'We see Democratic leaders and the 'unbiased' media openly rooting for a recession,' economist Stephen Moore wrote in late August in the Washington Times. 'The drumbeat for an economic contraction has been nonstop for the last two weeks.'"

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1.6.20 - Gold Price Hits Highest Since 2013

Gold last traded at $1,565 an ounce. Silver at $18.13 an ounce.

NEWS SUMMARY: Precious metal prices rose sharply Monday on safe-haven buying amid rising geopolitical worry. U.S. stocks fell again on growing worry of retaliation by Iran for recent U.S. assassination of a top Iranian military leader.

Gold Hits Highest Since 2013 as Goldman Backs Bullion in Crisis -Bloomberg/Yahoo Finance
"Gold surged to its highest since 2013 as rising tensions in the Middle East stoked demand for havens, with Goldman Sachs Group Inc. seeing more room to run. Bullion neared $1,600 an ounce after Tehran said it would no longer abide by any limits on its enrichment of uranium following the killing of General Qassem Soleimani. President Donald Trump said he's prepared to strike Iran 'in a disproportionate manner' if it retaliates against any U.S. target. Gold may prove a better bet than oil amid rising tensions, according to Goldman analysts. 'History shows that under most outcomes gold will likely rally to well beyond current levels,' analysts including Jeffrey Currie and Damien Courvalin said in a note. That's 'consistent with our previous research, which shows that being long gold is a better hedge to such geopolitical risks.'....Bullion is building on the largest annual climb since 2010, which was driven by the U.S.-China trade war's drag on global growth, easier monetary policy across the world's leading economies and sustained buying from exchange-traded funds and central banks. 'Negative real rates in the U.S. and a weaker U.S. dollar favor stronger precious metal prices in general,' said Giovanni Staunovo, a commodity analyst at UBS Wealth Management. 'Thus, we see value in staying long the metal.'"

white house One Essential Insight For The Year Ahead -Gordon/Zero Hedge
"Make no mistake, 2020 will be the year that everything happens precisely as it should. Some good. Some bad. Each day shall unfold before you with reciprocal imbalance. You can take that to the bank....The late Marty Zweig, in his book Winning on Wall Street, which was published in 1970, included the following observation: 'The monetary climate - primarily the trend in interest rates and Federal Reserve policy - is the dominant factor in determining the stock market's major direction.' Zweig is also credited with taking this observation and simplifying it in a way that Wall Street zealots can repeat with mindless refrain: 'Don't Fight the Fed.' Without question, this is sage advice"¦most of the time....There are occasions to fight the Fed. And 2020 is one of them. Hence, our essential insight for the year ahead is this: 'Fight the Fed in 2020.'....Policy makers are humans too. They're likely to miss the mark from time to time. By our estimation they already have. With this as our premise, we predict the following for 2020: The S&P 500 will close out the year down precisely 32 percent. The yield on the 10-Year Treasury note will rise to 3.19 percent. And gold will sparkle to a new all-time high, eclipsing $1,900 per ounce."

Fed Admits It Pumped More than $6 Trillion to Wall Street in Recent Six Week Period -Wall Street On Parade
"If the Federal Reserve was looking for a media lockdown on news about the trillions of dollars in cumulative repo loans it has funneled quietly to Wall Street's trading houses since September 17 of last year, it could not have found a better cloud cover than Donald Trump....The Fed's minutes revealed that after multiple expansions of this vast money spigot, which was previously set to lapse in January after getting the Wall Street trading houses through the year-end money crunch, instead it may be extended through April....The Fed's minutes also acknowledge that its most recent actions have tallied up to 'roughly $215 billion per day' flowing to trading houses on Wall Street. There were 29 business days between the last Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting and the latest Fed minutes, meaning that approximately $6.23 trillion in cumulative loans to Wall Street's trading houses had been made in that short span of time. During the 2007 to 2010 financial collapse on Wall Street - the worst financial crisis since the Great Depression, the Fed funneled a total of $29 trillion in cumulative loans to Wall Street banks between December 2007 and July 21, 2010. At the pace it is currently going, it would eclipse that $29 trillion before the middle of this year."

Central Banks Are the Biggest Risk to the Economy in 2020 -Yahoo Finance
"For the first time since the signing of the Declaration of Independence in 1776, the U.S. just completed the first calendar decade without even one day of a recession. There are a few key reasons why this is happening, and one clear risk that could bring the expansion to an end....As of November, the collective balance-sheet assets of the Federal Reserve, European Central Bank, Bank of Japan and Bank of England stood at 35.9% of their countries' total gross domestic product, up from about 10% in 2008, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. At the same time, the latest World Bank data show that developed country GDP expanded to $54.2 trillion at the end of 2018 from $46.1 trillion a decade earlier. Restated, central bank balance sheets grew at a faster rate, by $9.9 trillion, than their underlying economies....So, what happens when central banks pull back from this stimulus?....It will be extremely hard for central banks to reverse 'money printing.'....Should policy makers get their wish and some inflation returns, then it would be time to worry."

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1.3.20 - Safe-Haven Buying Lifts Gold Nears 6-Year High

Gold last traded at $1,552 an ounce. Silver at $18.16 an ounce.

NEWS SUMMARY: Precious metal prices rose sharply Friday amid geopolitical anxiety. U.S. stocks fell after the U.S. confirmed that an airstrike killed Iran's top military commander, sending oil prices surging and hiking geopolitical concerns.

Gold Nears Six-Year High as Traders Rush to Buy Haven Assets -Bloomberg/Yahoo Finance
"Gold advanced toward a six-year high after a U.S. airstrike killed one of Iran's most powerful generals, ratcheting up tensions in the Middle East and driving demand for havens...The strike in Baghdad ordered by President Donald Trump killed Qassem Soleimani, the Iranian general who led the Revolutionary Guards' Quds force. Iran's supreme leader vowed 'severe retaliation.' The news helped gold to build on the biggest annual gain in almost a decade, a rally that was driven by a weaker dollar, lower real rates and geopolitical concerns. 'Today's event has probably only brought forward the inevitable test of the September high,' said Ole Hansen, head of commodity strategy at Saxo Bank A/S. 'Rising inflation concerns through higher input prices - oil and food - combined with geopolitical uncertainty is a potent cocktail which supports a market already on the move.'"

QE chart A Crisis Has Already Begun... We Just Don't Know It Yet -Maulden/Zero Hedge
"Let's address an elephant in the room: the rapidly expanding federal debt. Each annual deficit raises the total debt and forces the Treasury to issue more debt, in hopes someone will buy it...The Fed now has also become a big part of the monetization process via its purchases of T-bills which also drives banks into buying notes. The Fed's balance sheet is now $335b higher than it was in September at $4.095 trillion. Again, however the Fed wants to define what it's doing, market participants view this as QE4 with all the asset price inflation that comes along with QE programs....It will be real interesting to see what happens in 2020 to the repo market when the Fed tries to end its injections and how markets respond when its balance sheet stops increasing in size....It sure looks like, through QE4 and other activities, the Fed is taking the first steps toward monetizing our debt. If so, many more steps are ahead because the debt is only going to get worse. As you can see from the chart, the Fed is well on its way to reversing that 2018 'quantitative tightening.'....Sometime in the middle to late 2020s, we will see a Great Reset that profoundly changes everything you know about money and investing. Crisis isn't simply coming. We are already in the early stages of it. I think we will look back at late 2019 as the beginning. This period will be rough but survivable if we prepare now."

America Is Now the Divided Republic the Framers Feared -The Atlantic
"John Adams worried that 'a division of the republic into two great parties "¦ is to be dreaded as the great political evil.' And that's exactly what has come to pass. America has now become that dreaded divided republic. The existential menace is as foretold, and it is breaking the system of government the Founders put in place with the Constitution. Though America's two-party system goes back centuries, the threat today is new and different because the two parties are now truly distinct, a development that I date to the 2010 midterms. Until then, the two parties contained enough overlapping multitudes within them that the sort of bargaining and coalition-building natural to multiparty democracy could work inside the two-party system. No more. America now has just two parties, and that's it....By separating powers across competing institutions, the Framers thought a majority party would never form....Triple developments - the nationalization of politics, the geographical-cultural partisan split, and consistently close elections - have reinforced one another, pushing both parties into top-down leadership, enforcing party discipline, and destroying cross-partisan deal making. Voters now vote the party, not the candidate. The consequence is that today, America has a genuine two-party system with no overlap, the development the Framers feared most. And it shows no signs of resolving....The country must break the binary hyper-partisanship so at odds with its governing institutions, and so dangerous for self-governance. It must become a multiparty democracy."

Warren Zevon's Wisdom for the 2020s -Noonan/Wall Street Journal
"Every year at this time I think of two things. One is what the musician Warren Zevon said on the 'Late Show With David Letterman.' I watched it, live, in 2002. Zevon was dying of mesothelioma, and Mr. Letterman asked how his illness had changed him. Zevon's answers suggested he'd come to feel awe for the barely noticed gifts we're given each day. Mr. Letterman asked, 'Do you know something about life and death that maybe I don't know now?' Mr. Zevon answered: 'I know how much you're supposed to enjoy every sandwich.' That is a gift, to know how good the sandwich is. The other is a quote I read 40 years ago, from the writer Laurens van der Post in 1961: 'We live not only our own lives but, whether we know it or not, also the life of our time.' We are all making history together, we are part of an era, and we are responsible to each other and to this great project....Now, my sense of where we are. On the impeachment of the American president, the story's already been written, hasn't it? It didn't quite work, did nothing to help and little to hinder his position....On to the real action, the presidential election 10 months away. The Democratic primary field is still flailing and doesn't see it's flailing. At the moment their theory of the country is wrong, and it's wrong because it's a theory, not a cold-eyed look at circumstances and facts on the ground...If there is a grinding war or an economic downturn people will want change and the out party has a good shot. If the economic downturn is severe they will consider deep structural change, even radical change such as socialism....In the 2020s, the American position on China will harden - not the government's but the country's. Whatever happens with the administration and China, Mr. Trump will think it's about him and lose interest when it appears not to be. Among the people, especially the business class, the perception will deepen that China is not our friend....The belief that big tech needs to be corralled - to be broken up or declared public utilities - will grow on the left and right....The past decade saw the rise of the woke progressives who dictate what words can be said and ideas held, thus poisoning and paralyzing American humor, drama, entertainment, culture and journalism. In the coming 10 years someone will effectively stand up to them...Who? How? That will be a story of the '20s, and a good one."

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1.2.20 - Recession on List of CEO Fears for 2020

Gold last traded at $1,528 an ounce. Silver at $18.04 an ounce.

NEWS SUMMARY: Precious metal prices rose Thursday on safe haven buying despite a firmer dollar. U.S. stocks rose to all-time highs on the first trading day of the new year.

Gold Prices Could Climb to Another Record High in 2020 -Barrons
"Investors who didn't own gold in 2019 could be kicking themselves after an 18% rise in prices for the year. But it might not be too late to join the rally. Robust buying by central banks, a weakening of the U.S. dollar, and growing political tensions could combine to fuel further gains. 'If we think about it in percentage terms, to imagine gold making a new all-time high sometime in 2020 doesn't seem like such a stretch,' says John Roque, a technical analyst with Wolfe Research in New York City....'We believe gold will (a) break out above resistance at $1,557, (b) work to $1,650, and then (c) make a new all-time high,' says a recent Wolfe Research report....A big part of the bulls' case is that buying by central banks will continue to absorb a lot of the metal....The U.S. election, trade tensions between the U.S. and China, and the pending impeachment trial of President Donald Trump could also act as catalysts for movements in the price of gold. 'There will be a lot of volatility in markets ahead of the elections, and that will be helpful for gold' says Rohit Savant, director of research at CPM Group."

Fed 2020 all about Federal Reserve interest rates -Crudele/New York Post
"This is the time of year when columnists get to show how smart they aren't by making predictions....I'll make a prediction about the Federal Reserve....This is the most important question for everyone - home buyers, credit card users, savers, banks and stock market investors: What will the Fed do to interest rates in 2020? The Fed will try to keep interest rates at current levels...If the Fed cut interest rates, the Democrats would howl that Chairman Jerome Powell was trying to fix the election for President Trump. If the Fed raised rates, it would go the other way, with the Republicans crying foul and accusing Powell of getting even with Trump, who has been a critic of the Federal Reserve. But there is always the chance that the Fed will have to do something. What do I mean? Well, if the stock market collapses after its remarkable 30 percent-plus rise in 2019, the Fed might have to cut rates to counteract the loss of wealth the country would feel. The opposite could also be true. Inflation could start flaring up and the Fed might have to raise rates - maybe even steadily and quickly. This would send Trump into a Twitter fit. But sharply rising prices would have to be dealt with swiftly....What will the stock market do in 2020? It all depends on whether interest rates go up. If they do, the stock market will fall."

Recession Rises on List of CEO Fears for 2020 -Wall Street Journal
"U.S. chief executives are getting worried about a recession. Fear of an economic decline topped the list of their concerns going into 2020, according to a survey from the Conference Board, a business research group...Last year, growth in gross domestic product globally slipped to 2.3% from 3% in 2018, and executives felt the pressure, said Bart van Ark, chief economist at the Conference Board....The Conference Board projects that global growth will accelerate slightly this year to 2.5%....Concerns about global trade linger, even after the announcement last month that China and the U.S. had reached a first-stage trade deal....'As long as we don't have any guidance about where it's going to go next, it's very hard to make big investments,' Mr. van Ark said. 'I don't think the stress of this is going to go away.'....Other top concerns for U.S. CEOs as the new decade dawns include more intense competition, the tight labor market and global political instability."

As China Anxiety Rises in U.S., Fears of New Red Scare Emerge -BloombergQuint
"The setting was inauspicious: an auditorium at Stanford University, founded by a railroad tycoon who made his fortune off the backs of Chinese immigrants. The subject: a report describing China's efforts to manipulate American universities, corporations and media 150 years after Leland Stanford celebrated the completion of the first transcontinental line....Christopher Wray, director of the Federal Bureau of Investigation, has called China 'the broadest, most challenging, most significant' counterintelligence threat the U.S. faces and says his agency is investigating more than 1,000 cases of suspected theft of U.S. intellectual property, with 'almost ' of them leading back to China. 'China has pioneered a societal approach to stealing innovation,' says Wray. The Hoover-Asia Society report, originally titled 'Chinese Influence & American Interests: Promoting Constructive Vigilance,' constitutes the most audacious attempt to date to address a fundamental challenge: How to confront China's global ambitions and avarice for U.S. technology without inciting a backlash against 5 million U.S. citizens of Chinese ancestry....The Hoover-Asia Society report argues that Beijing is devoting enormous resources to controlling what Americans write, say, learn and think about China."

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