Real Assets
Visualizing Gold Price and U.S. Debt (1970-2023)
Visualizing Gold Performance and U.S. Debt (1970-2023)
Gold has long been considered a store of value and a hedge against economic uncertainty.
Over the past five decades, its price has been closely intertwined with concerns surrounding the growing U.S. public debt.
The graphic above uses data from In Gold We Trust and the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis to explore the relationship between gold price and the U.S. national debt.
A $31T Government Debt
The U.S. national debt is the amount of money the federal government has borrowed to cover the outstanding balance of expenses incurred over time.
Every fiscal year, if spending exceeds revenue, the federal government borrows money by selling marketable securities such as Treasury bonds, bills, notes, floating rate notes, and Treasury inflation-protected securities (TIPS) to cover the deficit.
The American public debt has risen annually since 1970, except in 2000, when it decreased by 2% due to factors like robust growth and a budget surplus.
Over the last few decades, the national debt has grown from around $370 million in 1970 to an all-time high of $31.4 trillion in 2023, recently sparking the debate in Congress to increase the debt ceiling to avoid a potential default.
The number is even higher if considering federal unfunded liabilities. Those are future financial obligations that the government has committed to but lacks sufficient funds to fully cover, such as Social Security and Medicare. Taking those into consideration, the current present value of the fiscal imbalance is $244.8 trillion, almost 10 times the current U.S. GDP.
U.S. Debt’s Implication on Gold Prices
A rising US debt often leads to concerns about inflation. When a government accumulates a significant amount of debt, it may resort to measures such as printing more money or increasing government spending, potentially leading to inflationary pressures. In such situations, investors may turn to gold as a hedge against inflation.
In addition, as the federal debt levels rise, investors may become wary of the stability of financial markets and seek safe-haven assets such as gold.
| Year | U.S. Debt (Millions USD) | Gold Price (USD t oz) |
|---|---|---|
| 1970 | $372,007 | $35 |
| 1980 | $863,451 | $653 |
| 1990 | $3,051,958 | $415 |
| 2000 | $5,773,392 | $283 |
| 2010 | $12,773,123 | $1,078 |
| 2020 | $23,223,813 | $1,584 |
| 2023 | $31,457,820 | $1,982 |
Although the price of gold tends to rise as U.S. debt increases, numerous other factors can also influence the market, including market sentiment, central bank policies, and global economic conditions.
Real Assets
Visualizing Global Gold Production in 2023
Gold production in 2023 was led by China, Australia, and Russia, with each outputting over 300 tonnes.
Visualizing Global Gold Production in 2023
This was originally posted on our Voronoi app. Download the app for free on iOS or Android and discover incredible data-driven charts from a variety of trusted sources.
Over 3,000 tonnes of gold were produced globally in 2023.
In this graphic, we list the world’s leading countries in terms of gold production. These figures come from the latest USGS publication on gold statistics (published January 2024).
China, Australia, and Russia Produced the Most Gold in 2023
China was the top producer in 2023, responsible for over 12% of total global production, followed by Australia and Russia.
| Country | Region | 2023E Production (tonnes) |
|---|---|---|
| 🇨🇳 China | Asia | 370 |
| 🇦🇺 Australia | Oceania | 310 |
| 🇷🇺 Russia | Europe | 310 |
| 🇨🇦 Canada | North America | 200 |
| 🇺🇸 United States | North America | 170 |
| 🇰🇿 Kazakhstan | Asia | 130 |
| 🇲🇽 Mexico | North America | 120 |
| 🇮🇩 Indonesia | Asia | 110 |
| 🇿🇦 South Africa | Africa | 100 |
| 🇺🇿 Uzbekistan | Asia | 100 |
| 🇬🇭 Ghana | Africa | 90 |
| 🇵🇪 Peru | South America | 90 |
| 🇧🇷 Brazil | South America | 60 |
| 🇧🇫 Burkina Faso | Africa | 60 |
| 🇲🇱 Mali | Africa | 60 |
| 🇹🇿 Tanzania | Africa | 60 |
| 🌍 Rest of World | - | 700 |
Gold mines in China are primarily concentrated in eastern provinces such as Shandong, Henan, Fujian, and Liaoning. As of January 2024, China’s gold mine reserves stand at an estimated 3,000 tonnes, representing around 5% of the global total of 59,000 tonnes.
In addition to being the top producer, China emerged as the largest buyer of the yellow metal for the year. In fact, the country’s central bank alone bought 225 tonnes of gold in 2023, according the World Gold Council.
Estimated Global Gold Consumption
Most of the gold produced in 2023 was used in jewelry production, while another significant portion was sold as a store of value, such as in gold bars or coins.
- Jewelry: 46%
- Central Banks and Institutions: 23%
- Physical Bars: 16%
- Official Coins, Medals, and Imitation Coins: 9%
- Electrical and Electronics: 5%
- Other: 1%
According to Fitch Solutions, over the medium term (2023-2032), global gold mine production is expected to grow 15%, as high prices encourage investment and output.
Real Assets
Charted: The Value Gap Between the Gold Price and Gold Miners
While gold prices hit all-time highs, gold mining stocks have lagged far behind.
Gold Price vs. Gold Mining Stocks
This was originally posted on our Voronoi app. Download the app for free on Apple or Android and discover incredible data-driven charts from a variety of trusted sources.
Although the price of gold has reached new record highs in 2024, gold miners are still far from their 2011 peaks.
In this graphic, we illustrate the evolution of gold prices since 2000 compared to the NYSE Arca Gold BUGS Index (HUI), which consists of the largest and most widely held public gold production companies. The data was compiled by Incrementum AG.
Mining Stocks Lag Far Behind
In April 2024, gold reached a new record high as Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell signaled policymakers may delay interest rate cuts until clearer signs of declining inflation materialize.
Additionally, with elections occurring in more than 60 countries in 2024 and ongoing conflicts in Ukraine and Gaza, central banks are continuing to buy gold to strengthen their reserves, creating momentum for the metal.
Traditionally known as a hedge against inflation and a safe haven during times of political and economic uncertainty, gold has climbed over 11% so far this year.
According to Business Insider, gold miners experienced their best performance in a year in March 2024. During that month, the gold mining sector outperformed all other U.S. industries, surpassing even the performance of semiconductor stocks.
Still, physical gold has outperformed shares of gold-mining companies over the past three years by one of the largest margins in decades.
| Year | Gold Price | NYSE Arca Gold BUGS Index (HUI) |
|---|---|---|
| 2023 | $2,062.92 | $243.31 |
| 2022 | $1,824.32 | $229.75 |
| 2021 | $1,828.60 | $258.87 |
| 2020 | $1,895.10 | $299.64 |
| 2019 | $1,523.00 | $241.94 |
| 2018 | $1,281.65 | $160.58 |
| 2017 | $1,296.50 | $192.31 |
| 2016 | $1,151.70 | $182.31 |
| 2015 | $1,060.20 | $111.18 |
| 2014 | $1,199.25 | $164.03 |
| 2013 | $1,201.50 | $197.70 |
| 2012 | $1,664.00 | $444.22 |
| 2011 | $1,574.50 | $498.73 |
| 2010 | $1,410.25 | $573.32 |
| 2009 | $1,104.00 | $429.91 |
| 2008 | $865.00 | $302.41 |
| 2007 | $836.50 | $409.37 |
| 2006 | $635.70 | $338.24 |
| 2005 | $513.00 | $276.90 |
| 2004 | $438.00 | $215.33 |
| 2003 | $417.25 | $242.93 |
| 2002 | $342.75 | $145.12 |
| 2001 | $276.50 | $65.20 |
| 2000 | $272.65 | $40.97 |
Among the largest companies on the NYSE Arca Gold BUGS Index, Colorado-based Newmont has experienced a 24% drop in its share price over the past year. Similarly, Canadian Barrick Gold also saw a decline of 6.5% over the past 12 months.
-
Electrification3 years agoRanked: The Top 10 EV Battery Manufacturers
-
Electrification2 years agoThe Key Minerals in an EV Battery
-
Real Assets3 years agoThe World’s Top 10 Gold Mining Companies
-
Misc3 years agoAll the Metals We Mined in One Visualization
-
Energy Shift2 years agoWhat Are the Five Major Types of Renewable Energy?
-
Electrification2 years agoMapped: Solar Power by Country in 2021
-
Electrification2 years agoThe World’s Largest Nickel Mining Companies
-
Electrification3 years agoHow Much Land is Needed to Power the U.S. with Solar?