Swiss America: Gold Standard News Daily

10.2.26 - Fed No Longer Projected to Hike Rates

Gold last traded at $4,137 an ounce. Silver at $60.26 an ounce.

EDITOR'S NOTE: If you are uncertain about where the economy is headed, it's understandable. We seem to be told one thing one day and something completely different the next. One of the latest examples is the Federal Reserve, which just weeks ago signaled that its recent rate hike was the first of several to come, yet markets are now projecting no additional hike at this month’s meeting? Lower rates may be good news for mortgages and borrowing costs, but it also makes me wonder: how clearly does the Fed really have its finger on the pulse of the economy?

Polymarket No Longer Projects Fed Reserve to Hike Interest Rates -Watcher.Guru

by Jaxon Gaines

The Federal Reserve is no longer projected to hike interest rates at the next FOMC meeting later this month, according to forecasts tracked by Polymarket. This comes after quotes from Fed representatives have revealed that there is currently no rush to raise rates again. Vice Chair Philip Jefferson said on Thursday that while he supported the US central bank’s interest rate increase last month, he does not see any urgency to make another move.

“Any future adjustments in policy should be determined by carefully examining trends in the data, the evolving outlook, and the balance of risks,” Jefferson said in the text of remarks to be delivered before the University of Virginia’s Darden School of Business. The Federal Reserve last raised its benchmark federal funds rate by 25 basis points to a target range of 3.75%–4.00% at its September 16 meeting.

There were concerns about another interest rate hike raised this week as Mortgage rates continued to rise. Indeed, mortgage rates have reached their highest levels since late 2023, as the global bond selloff wore on. The average 30-year fixed-rate mortgage was 7.6% as of Wednesday, according to Mortgage News Daily, up around 15 basis points from a week earlier. Rates haven’t been this high since November 2023. Further, rates have risen by 70 basis points in the last month alone. READ MORE

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10.1.26 - US Warns Europe: Release Diesel Reserves or Else

Gold last traded at $4,172 an ounce. Silver at $60.89 an ounce.

EDITOR'S NOTE: It’s looking more and more like 2026 is shaping up to be the year of gas, oil and diesel. We continue to hear about supplies tightening, reserves being tapped, and governments scrambling to find ways to keep fuel flowing; and now President Trump is even pressuring other nations to release their emergency reserves or face the possibility of restrictions on U.S. diesel exports. But that raises an important question: What happens when the reserves are gone? You can tap a reserve to buy time, but you can’t solve a supply problem by continually drawing down the very reserves designed to protect you from one.

US Warns Europe: Release Emergency Diesel Supplies Or Face Export Ban -ZeroHedge

by Tyler Durden

The refined products crisis remains unresolved as the Northern Hemisphere winter approaches.

Speaking in the Oval Office on Wednesday, President Trump said he holds discussions "every day" about a potential diesel export ban, blaming Russia's war in Ukraine for fueling the supply squeeze. His administration is now pressuring European governments to release emergency diesel inventories to contain further price surges and reduce the risk of an economic shock in the coming months.

Reuters reports that the Trump administration has asked Germany and France to release emergency diesel inventories to help create a buffer against the supply squeeze in the industrial fuel or face a potential US diesel export ban.

The total request calls for the release of 120 million barrels of diesel over the next six months, according to a source in a European capital cited by the outlet. That would be equivalent to about 660,000 barrels a day of additional supply.

"It is in Europe's best interest to work with the United States as we pursue multiple pathways to boost the supply of refined products and lower costs for consumers," one source, a US official, told Reuters.

Trump warned yesterday in the Oval Office that an export ban would "have a negative impact on gasoline" prices but could lower diesel costs. He warned that Russia's war with Ukraine is the main driver of soaring prices. Russia recently extended an export ban on the industrial fuel.

Goldman analysts Yulia Zhestkova Grigsby, Alexandra Paulus and Daan Struyven noted earlier this week that estimated "dark exports" have helped boost Persian Gulf oil exports to 23.3 million barrels a day over the past week, back to prewar levels. Still, refined product exports remain at just half of their 2025 averages. READ MORE

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9.30.26 - How big can the bubble expand before popping?

Gold last traded at $4,160 an ounce. Silver at $60.46 an ounce.

EDITOR'S NOTE: While these stories may look unrelated on the surface, they point to a growing problem beneath the economy: higher rates, rising financing costs and increasing stress in the very areas that have been driving economic growth. Gold is facing pressure from the stronger dollar and higher yields, while the enormous investment behind the AI/data-center boom is beginning to encounter real-world financing and infrastructure problems, and the Treasury market is showing signs of increasing strain. Taken together, they raise an important question: how much longer can an economy built on increasingly expensive debt continue to expand without something eventually breaking?

Gold falls despite cooler inflation data, monthly loss in sight -Reuters

By Anjana Anil

Gold surrendered earlier gains and eased on Wednesday, ‌heading for a monthly decline, as higher energy prices eclipsed support from softer-than-expected U.S. inflation data that reduced expectations for an immediate Federal Reserve rate hike.

Spot gold was down 0.7% at $4,152.86 per ounce as of 1:40 ​p.m. ET (1740 GMT). Prices briefly rose after US inflation data came in cooler than ​anticipated. Gold is down 6.6% in September so far.

US gold futures settled ⁠0.2% higher at $4,186.70.

"With energy moving higher, bonds have given up gains and put metals back ​under pressure; it's a disappointing day for gold even as the odds of an October rate ​hike have dropped substantially after the softer than expected core PCE result," said independent metals trader Tai Wong.

The Personal Consumption Expenditures Price Index rose 0.3% last month after a downwardly revised 0.1% gain in July, the Commerce Department's ​Bureau of Economic Analysis said on Wednesday. Core PCE increased 3.0% year-on-year in August after ​a downwardly revised 3.0% advance in July. READ MORE

A Wrench in the Data Center Machine -Daily Reckoning

by Adam Sharp

The U.S. economy relies heavily on AI for growth.

Today we’re going to take a look at how it could all go wrong.

Goldman Sachs says roughly half of current S&P earnings growth is due to the AI boom. Much of the rest is due to high spending from top earners, which is due to soaring stock prices.

So most growth flows back to AI, directly or indirectly.

At the heart of the boom is AI data centers. Absolutely massive projects that require tens or hundreds of billions of dollars to build.

These data centers are being paid for using… creative methods.

Let’s look at Oracle’s massive Jupiter data center in New Mexico. Well, technically Oracle (ORCL) will be the tenant. The owner/developer is a division of Blue Owl Capital (OWL), with financing from a bunch of banks.

Once the data center is up and running, Oracle plans to sell most of the computing power to ChatGPT developer OpenAI. READ MORE

Next Stop 6 Percent – The Treasury Bond Crisis Is Officially Out Of Control, And It Is Starting To Look A Lot Like 2008 All Over Again -The Economic Collapse

A historic Treasury bond crisis has erupted and hardly anyone that doesn’t work in the financial world has any idea what is actually going on. We are literally witnessing the most dramatic financial crisis since 2008, and it isn’t even on the radar of most people in the general population. But it soon will be, because it is going to have tremendous implications for all of us. Economic conditions were very painful for several years after the financial chaos of the fall of 2008, and it appears that we are headed for a similar scenario now.

When average people on the street hear that bond yields are going up, most of them think that must be a good thing.

But bond yields and bond prices move inversely to one another, and so when bond yields are spiking that means that bond prices are crashing.

And when bond prices crash, that is not good at all.

Investors were waiting to see whether or not the yield on 10 year U.S. Treasury bonds would smash through the 5 percent barrier, and that is precisely what happened.

Subsequently, investors have been closely watching the 5.25 percent barrier, because historically that is when market conditions really begin to go haywire… READ MORE

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9.29.26 - Gold: Shanghai Longs Sell Ahead of National Week

Gold last traded at $4,181 an ounce. Silver at $61.49 an ounce.

EDITOR'S NOTE: Gold experienced a sharp pullback yesterday as the dollar showed some renewed strength, but the bigger question is whether the dollar is truly strengthening or whether markets are simply positioning and making a short-term play. I tend to believe it's the latter, particularly with Chinese traders reducing long positions ahead of the National Day holiday. The bottom line is that this is not a dynamic I would bet the farm on for the long term; the fundamental forces supporting higher gold prices and continued pressure on the dollar remain firmly intact.

Gold: Shanghai Longs Sell Ahead of National Week -ZeroHedge

Authored by GoldFix

Gold fell sharply yesterday, breaking below its 50-day and 100-day moving averages and returning toward August’s lows. The move was the third-largest daily decline since the leveraged liquidations at the end of January. The dollar was only marginally higher, and real yields rose modestly during the session.

ZeroHedge’s account of comments from Goldman Sachs precious-metals specialist Adam Gillard points to selling by Chinese traders ahead of a week-long exchange closure. Gillard also cited President Trump’s rejection of Iran’s proposed seven-day truce, pressure from higher rates and weakness across Chinese risk assets. The Shanghai Composite was down as much as 2% intraday.

Yesterday’s modest yield move followed several weeks of stronger pressure at the front end of the Treasury market. Two-year real yields were back near their highest levels in more than two years, while inflation expectations had risen too little to offset the increase. Holding gold had become more expensive relative to cash. This is the old trope which has merit on days like this, but we’re not buying it long term. That said, a tipping point of sorts can be cited.. But the real culprit was the shanghai spec traders liquidating. READ MORE

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9.28.26 - Global debt tops $365 trillion

Gold last traded at $4,122 an ounce. Silver at $60.85 an ounce.

EDITOR'S NOTE: Global debt continues to climb while bond yields are rising to levels we haven't seen in years, creating a combination that should concern every investor. With governments facing higher interest costs and inflation proving difficult to contain, the financial pressure created by this growing mountain of debt is becoming harder to ignore.

Global debt tops $365 trillion as economists sound alarm over ‘vicious cycle’ -CNBC

by Jenni Reid

Ever-higher costs to service mounting debt loads pose a major risk to governments around the world, economists have warned.

Global debt rose by $10 trillion in the first half of the year to top $365 trillion, according to research published by the Institute of International Finance on Wednesday.

State debts are rising as yields on medium- and long-term government bonds issued by a slew of the world’s biggest economies hit their highest levels in more than a decade — including in the U.S., Japan, France and the U.K. Rising yields reflect growing investor discomfort at rising interest rates, persistent energy cost pressures, tepid economic growth and high fiscal spending.

The IIF highlighted the four major economies in particular as facing “persistently large deficits and rising interest expenses — challenges long associated with debt-distressed emerging market sovereigns.”

The Washington-based group found that advanced economies paid over $3.3 trillion in interest on internationally traded government bonds last year, more than global spending on AI ($2.6 trillion), defense ($3.1 trillion), or clean energy ($2.3 trillion).

Debt has become a political issue, creating a “vicious cycle between elections and short-term quick fixes, and a long-term vulnerability as the marginal utility of higher debt diminishes,” the IIF warned. READ MORE

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9.25.26 - Xi Came to Washington With Leverage

Gold last traded at $4,292 an ounce. Silver at $64.48 an ounce.

EDITOR'S NOTE: The recent Trump-Xi meeting was watched closely, but it also revealed a vulnerability that should concern every American. For several years, we have reported on the Secret War being waged against our finances, and China’s ability to disrupt critical U.S. supply chains simply by slowing the flow of essential materials is another weapon in that battle. With our debt and deficits continuing to climb, these vulnerabilities could prove to be far more than problematic; they could become a serious economic liability.

Xi Came to Washington With Leverage. Washington Is Already Buying It Back -ZeroHedge

by Phoenix Capital Research

I am in Washington this week. Yesterday afternoon Marine One flew over on its way to Joint Base Andrews, with the President on board to meet Xi Jinping’s plane in person. Trump almost never does that. He waits at the White House. And when Trump flew to Beijing in May, Xi did not come to the airport; a vice premier did. Yesterday the President of the United States stood on the tarmac for the man who holds something he needs.

Today Trump hosts Xi at the White House, the first state visit by a Chinese leader in more than a decade, followed by a state dinner tonight. By the time you read this, the two men will have spent several hours in a room together, and the wires will be parsing every word of the readout.

I want to tell you what to watch, and why the result does not change a single trade.

Start with what did not happen in the run-up. Before every previous meeting with Xi, Trump escalated. In 2019 he threatened tariffs on $300 billion of Chinese goods before Osaka. Before Busan last October he threatened a “massive increase” in tariffs and said there was no reason to meet at all. Before the Beijing summit in May he floated a 50% tariff over reports that China was sending air defense systems to Iran. This time, nothing. No tariff threats, no export bans, no leaked demands. And the President went to the airport. Reuters ran an analysis Monday on why the tone has changed, and the answer from every China expert they spoke to was the same: rare earths. READ MORE

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9.24.26 - Why China's self-sufficiency changes the calculus

Gold last traded at $4,274 an ounce. Silver at $63.81 an ounce.

EDITOR'S NOTE: As President Trump works to preserve the dominance of the U.S. dollar and reduce America's economic dependence on China, one enormous obstacle remains: the world still has a tremendous appetite for Chinese goods. There have been efforts to slow China's economic momentum, but so far its growing self-sufficiency, expanding exports, and position in global supply chains have made that task increasingly difficult. The bigger question may be what happens to the dollar - and to hard assets like gold and silver - if the world's dependence on China continues to grow despite these efforts.

Trump-Xi meeting: Why China’s self-sufficiency changes the calculus

by Evelyn Cheng

BEIJING — The trade deficit that escalated tensions between China and the U.S. in recent years has yet to shrink significantly, and the world’s second-largest economy faces deep challenges. But China’s efforts to build up self-sufficiency have reduced the threat to its domestic market from global trade developments.

U.S. President Donald Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping are expected to meet this week for their second in-person summit of the year. U.S. concerns about artificial intelligence have gained prominence in the days ahead of the meeting.

But the best that businesses are hoping for is an extension of a trade truce reached last fall. Even then, tariffs have done little to dent America’s appetite for Chinese goods.

While an escalation in trade tensions last April briefly sent the U.S. trade deficit with China to its lowest level since 2017, surging demand for AI-related parts have helped send it higher again so far this year, according to China Customs data accessed through Wind Information.

And even as the U.S. has diversified away from China, it’s hard for the world to shake its dependence on the Asian country. READ MORE

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9.23.26 - The Truth behind the Oil and Gas Headlines

Gold last traded at $4,293 an ounce. Silver at $64.53 an ounce.

EDITOR'S NOTE: As oil and gas prices continue to dominate the headlines, what initially appeared to be a temporary spike is looking like a much larger and longer-lasting problem. The deeper we look into the situation, the more concerning the potential economic consequences become, as higher energy costs work their way through virtually every part of the economy. With little indication that prices will come back down anytime soon, now may be an important time to consider how rising costs and continued economic uncertainty could impact your financial future; and whether you are adequately positioned to protect your purchasing power.

The World Has Oil, but Not Enough Refining -Daily Reckoning

by Byron King

“The world runs on diesel,” goes the saying.

And “Houston, we have a problem,” goes another saying.

So today, we’ll discuss diesel (and its molecular cousin jet fuel). But first we’ll talk about oil. And oh by the way, when was the last time you bought a barrel of crude oil? Probably never.

Let’s dig in…

You don’t buy crude oil. You buy gasoline or diesel, right? And lubricants like motor oil. And items made of plastic (almost everything anymore) or other petrochemicals. Or when you fly, a big whack of the ticket price is jet fuel. Plus, much of the food in grocery stores was fertilized in the field or bug-sprayed with goop made from oil or natural gas derivatives. I could go on but you get the idea.

So, you use oil products; but no, you never buy crude oil. Your purchases are far downstream from the pumpjack out in the prairie. Still, people watch the price of crude oil because it’s the headline number. But again, crude is only raw material. READ MORE

$6.53 Diesel US Average, $8.25 in California, Worsens Already Hot Inflation, amid Record US Diesel Exports. Gasoline & Jet Fuel Prices also Spike -Wolf Street

by Wolf Richter

I’m worried about the inflationary mindset taking off again. It’s the Fed’s job to step on the brakes before inflation turns into a runaway train.

The average retail price of on-highway diesel spiked by 24 cents in the latest week, and by 88 cents in four weeks, to a record $6.529 a gallon at gas stations on Monday, and that’s for the US overall, according to the EIA this morning. Year-over-year, the price of diesel has spiked by 74%.

California diesel prices spiked to $8.246 a gallon. While driving by gas stations, we’ve seen over $8 a gallon for weeks.

These are sobering sights, setting off the inflation alarm bells.

Republicans called for a diesel export ban. There is a shortage of diesel in the rest of the world, and US refiners provide much needed supply.

Year-to-date through August, the US produced 5.1 million barrels per day of distillate fuel oil (mostly diesel); imported almost none; and exported a record average of 1.74 million barrels per day over the past two months. READ MORE

France Is Running Out Of Fuel: 16% Of French Gas Stations Are Reporting Outages And Rationing Has Started In Several Other Countries -The Economic Collapse

It has begun. Hundreds of gas stations all over France are reporting that they are out of at least one type of fuel, and there are quite a few nations in Asia that are now imposing very strict measures in order to conserve energy. I have no idea why this isn’t making more news here in the United States. Maybe the big news outlets don’t think that there is any way that this could ever happen here. Or maybe there is a coordinated effort to keep the public calm. I don’t know. But without a doubt, this is a very big deal.

I knew that Europe was facing a severe energy crunch, but I didn’t realize that things had gotten so bad already.

It is being reported that 16 percent of all gas stations in France are out of at least one type of fuel…

Official French pump data on Monday showed that 16 percent of stations are short of at least one main fuel, diesel or petrol. READ MORE

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9.22.26 - A Warning from Michael Burry

Gold last traded at $4,358 an ounce. Silver at $67.07 an ounce.

EDITOR'S NOTE: As AI continues to dominate financial headlines, it may ultimately be the details behind the massive spending that deserve the most attention. In this case, those details involve trillions of dollars in off-balance-sheet commitments and potential liabilities that could become much more significant if the current AI investment boom begins to slow. Michael Burry is raising questions about just how much financial risk may be building beneath the surface; and whether investors are fully accounting for it.

Michael Burry Warns Hyperscalers Are Hiding $3 Trillion In AI Liabilities — And Wall Street Isn’t Looking: ‘When The Music’s Over…’ -Yahoo! Finance

by Yuvraj Malik

"The Big Short" investor Michael Burry has renewed his warnings on artificial intelligence, arguing in a new blog post this week that Amazon, Meta Platforms, Alphabet, Microsoft and Oracle have quietly amassed more than $3 trillion in largely off-balance-sheet commitments, risks he says the market has broadly overlooked.

Burry estimated the five hyperscalers have nearly $1.2 trillion in uncommenced lease commitments and more than $1.5 trillion in purchase commitments. Including special-purpose vehicles, guarantees, contingent backstops and other obligations, he estimates the total exceeds $3 trillion.

"These liabilities, I say, are, in essence, in hypergrowth mode," Burry wrote, arguing that they are growing much faster than the companies themselves.

Burry's central concern is the mismatch between the long lifespan of data-center infrastructure and the rapid pace of AI chip development.

Data centers can take three to five years to build and often involve lease terms stretching 13 to 20 years, while AI accelerators can see major changes in power density and cooling requirements within 12 to 18 months. READ MORE

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