October Blog Archives 2018

Gold last traded at $1,215 an ounce. Silver at $14.28 an ounce.

NEWS SUMMARY: Precious metal prices eased back Wednesday on profit taking. U.S. stocks rebounded as upbeat earnings from General Motors and Facebook lifted sentiment; but the major averages were still on pace for sharp October losses ranging between 6%-11%.

Gold To Push Past $1,500 In 12 Months -Kitco
"Optimism is high among delegates at the London Bullion Market Association's 2018 precious metals conference, even as general investors continue to ignore the sector. In a conference poll, 682 attendees said that they see gold prices rising to $1,532 an ounce by the next conference in 2019. The outlook comes as gold prices struggled to hold on to last week's three-month high. December gold futures ended Tuesday's session at $1,225 an ounce, down 0.20% on the day. However, the LBMA forecast represents a 25% increase from current prices. 'This is the most bullish forecast since 2012,' said Ruth Crowell, chief executive of the LBMA....Many noted that gold is starting to draw attention as a defensive asset as equities are seeing strong selling pressure and higher volatility. Other participants have said that rising inflation pressures will eventually bring investors back to the marketplace."

Message From The Bond Market: More Turmoil For Stocks -Forbes
"Already stocks have had a volatile fall, but it could get even worse. That's because a change in the bond market is pointing to a sharp decline in stocks unless something changes, according to one analyst. The reason why savvy investors watch the bond market is that buyers of fixed-income securities, as bonds are known, tend to be far smarter than their stock investor counterparts. 'If we want to know how real money is flowing in and out of real assets, we need to watch the biggest market of them all: Bonds,' writes J.C. Parets, founder of AllStarCharts and an expert in so-called technical analysis, or chartism. What's happening is that investors are ditching junk bonds, also known as high-yield securities. These are bonds that are sold by companies with less than stellar credit ratings. 'If we don't get a miracle recovery back above the early 2017 highs, stocks are incredibly vulnerable and much lower prices are likely.'....Remember that the stock market and the economy are like cousins. They are related but not the same. You can have a strong economy and a sliding market at the same time."

Paul Volcker’s Guide to the Almighty Dollar -The Atlantic
"The former chairman of the Federal Reserve has three fundamental rules: stable prices, sound finance, and good government....Few Americans had heard of Volcker until he was nominated, in 1979, to be chairman of the Federal Reserve Board by President Jimmy Carter, a post he held for the next eight years. During that time, he almost single-handedly pulled the nation back from a near-Weimar-scale financial collapse....The American dollar effectively became the world's currency at its 1934 peg - $35 per ounce of gold. That worked splendidly while America's allies were in recovery mode, but by the 1960s most industrialized countries were competitive with the United States. Swiss currency traders, the nefarious 'gnomes of Zurich,' realized that America's gold reserves could no longer support its dollar issuance. So they started testing the dollar with sudden spasms of dollar sales in the hope of forcing a devaluation....Nixon in August 1971...announced that he would cut taxes, impose wage and price controls, levy a tax surcharge on all imports, and rescind the commitment to redeem dollars in gold....Everyone Volker had worked with 'trusted each other in crisis to respect the rules and cling to the few constants like the convertibility of gold.'....As the ’70s wound down, the dollar became a debased currency - but one that, for want of an alternative, still served as the world's most important reserve currency."

Whopping 62 percent of jobs don't support middle-class life -USA Today
"Despite an unemployment rate that has reached a 50-year low of 3.7 percent, most jobs across the U.S. don't support a middle-class or better lifestyle, leaving many Americans struggling, according to a new study. Sixty-two percent of jobs fall short of that middle-class standard when factoring in both wages and the cost of living in the metro area where the job is located, according to the study by Third Way, a think tank that advocates center-left ideas....Nationally, the study found: 30 percent of jobs are 'hardship jobs,' meaning they don't allow a single adult to make ends meet. 32 percent are 'living wage' jobs, enough to get by but not to take vacations, save for retirement or live in a moderately priced home. 23 percent are 'middle-class' jobs, allowing for dining out, modest vacations and putting some money away for retirement. 15 percent are 'professional jobs,' paving the way for a more comfortable life that includes more elaborate vacations and entertainment and a more expensive home."

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Gold last traded at $1,225 an ounce. Silver at $14.46 an ounce.

NEWS SUMMARY: Precious metal prices traded mixed Tuesday on a firmer dollar. U.S. stocks traded higher as investors hoped to pare steep October losses in volatile trading.

Goldman Says the Return of Fear Is a Good Thing for Gold -Bloomberg
"Goldman Sachs Group Inc. says that 'fear' has made a comeback and gold is benefiting as stocks slide and investors fret more about the possibility that the U.S. economy may tumble back into recession. Bullion's recent advance 'happened on the back of the market sell-off and spike in volatility,' analysts including Mikhail Sprogis and Jeffrey Currie, wrote in a report dated Oct. 30. 'In our view, it represents a rebound in fear-related demand for gold with ETFs beginning to build after several months of declines.' Bullion is heading for the first monthly gain in seven after equities slumped and trade-war concerns festered, hurting the outlook for growth. The U.S. has a greater than 50-50 chance of tipping into a recession in the next two years, according to a model tracked by JPMorgan Chase & Co....The bank listed other reasons it was positive on bullion, citing prospects for central bank buying, higher core inflation in the U.S., and rising emerging market demand."

Mortgage Rates Are Pushing U.S. Homes Out of Reach -Bloomberg
"Six years of home-price gains outpacing wage growth; bidding wars replaced by sales at the asking price; days or weeks on the market turning into months; rising mortgage rates. First-time shoppers start to get priced out, making it harder for move-up buyers to sell, and the slowdown ripples gradually up the real estate food chain. 'Every single market in the country has an entry-level problem,' said Candace Adams, who oversees Berkshire Hathaway HomeServices’ operations. While U.S. home prices have gained almost 60 percent since March 31, 2012, according to the S&P Corelogic Case-Shiller 20-City Composite Index, household income is up a little less than 30 percent in the same period, Bureau of Economic Analysis data shows....The biggest home-price gains in the country have been in cities where demand is tied to the stock performance of the biggest employers. 'In metros like San Jose, San Francisco, Seattle, where wages are more closely tied to how tech stocks are doing, we've seen that's where prices have gone up the most,' said Daryl Fairweather, chief economist at Redfin."

UK Begins Confiscating Wealth Without Criminal Charges -Investing Matters
"In January we alerted you to a new power of British law enforcement: 'Unexplained Wealth Orders' allow the United Kingdom to confiscate money and property, without charging the target with a crime. UWOs are similar to civil asset forfeiture in the United States. Authorities have demanded that a woman living in London explain where she got the money to purchase her £11.5 million and £10.5 million homes. If she cannot prove the money was acquired legally, the properties will be confiscated. The woman lost her first court battle last week, when a judge declined to dismiss the order, and said she could not remain anonymous. The woman was revealed to be Zamira Hajiyeva, the wife of the former head of the Azerbaijan state owned central bank....If the UK has evidence that the money came from criminal activity, then they should present that evidence. That is how the justice system is supposed to work, you are assumed innocent, and it is the state's responsibility to prove your guilt. But now, it's guilty until proven innocent when the government accuses you....Successfully confiscating the wealth of this woman will only embolden authorities to be even more brazen in confiscating wealth from the innocent."

To discover the latest developments in the ongoing war by governments worldwide upon your freedom, your privacy and your cash; request a FREE copy of our 2018 White Paper, THE SECRET WAR, PART II: Weapons of Cash Destruction.

"Extreme Portfolio Pain" Ahead: Morgan Stanley Expects A "Cyclical Bear Market" Slamming The S&P To 2,400 -Zero Hedge
"Morgan Stanley's bearish equity strategist, Mike Wilson, is out with his latest bearish piece, in which he pours cold water on the 'cautiously optimistic' views proposed by his Wall Street peers, and reiterated that 'rallies should be sold until the liquidity picture improves, valuations compress further or 2019 earnings estimates are reduced.'....According to the Morgan Stanley strategist, 'it doesn't take heavy analysis to recognize this market is now approaching bear territory,' and although the S&P 500 is only down 10% from its highs, '40% of US stocks and almost every sector have fallen 20% at some point from their 52 week highs.' As a result, he believes that 'the evidence is building and the message from Mr. Market is clear - The consensus outlook for earnings growth is too rosy next year.'....While we already know that hedge fund performance in 2018 has been abysmal, this is the latest confirmation of 'extreme portfolio pain' leaving most active managers down on the year as well....But wait, there's more. Because while traders have been hit with various 'rolling bear markets', Wilson is confident that when looking at the broader market, 'this rolling bear is quickly turning into a cyclical bear'."

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Gold last traded at $1,227 an ounce. Silver at $14.44 an ounce.

NEWS SUMMARY: Precious metal prices eased back from 3-month highs Monday on mild profit-taking and a firmer dollar. U.S. stocks traded mixed as investors attempted to regain their footing amid steep losses this month.

The global selloff has erased $5 trillion from stock and bond markets in October -Marketwatch
"The recent stampede by investors has erased about $5 trillion in value from global stock and bond markets in October alone. Unless the markets regain their footing soon, the pressure for the Federal Reserve to reassess their monetary policy will continue to mount, they said....'A further 10% decline in equities, which would amount to a roughly 15% decline from the recent peak…would be needed to tighten financial conditions by enough to materially impact the Fed,' said Matthew Luzzetti, senior economist at Deutsche Bank....The sharp selloff this month has prompted at least one market expert to suggest that stocks are in the midst of a sustained downward spiral. 'With the S&P 500 only five weeks removed from its all-time high, we’ve not been definitive about labeling this move a new cyclical bear market. But it's very likely we are experiencing one,' said Doug Ramsey, chief investment officer at Leuthold Group, in a report."

Dollar a major reason for this stock sell-off -CNBC
"The October stock market sell-off has been puzzling to many investors because most companies are riding high on business confidence and a tax-cut windfall. Plus, profit growth has been solid, and many companies have been beating expectations on strong sales numbers and a positive outlook. But one real worry cited on post-earnings conference calls is the rising U.S. dollar, which makes business overseas more expensive for U.S. companies. The strong dollar was cited by companies as varied as Anheuser-Busch and PPG Industries. And it's a problem that is only getting worse. The gains in the U.S. Dollar Index, a measure of the greenback against a basket of major currencies, are accelerating, up another 2 percent in the last one month. By no coincidence, the S&P 500 has headed lower at the same time....Add that to rising interest rates, rising fuel costs and the early effects of tariffs on imports of steel, aluminum and other manufacturing materials, and executives have struck a more cautious tone for the near term....'The market doesn't believe 2019 growth is going to be anywhere near what it is expected to be,' said Nick Raich, CEO of research firm Earnings Scout."

Why Central Bank Buying Has the Gold Market Guessing -Bloomberg
"The gold market was caught by surprise when two of eastern Europe's biggest economies, Poland and Hungary, made rare purchases in recent months. Why central banks buy gold is often a major topic of market speculation. Were Poland and Hungary signaling worries about economic conditions? Were they cutting exposure to the dollar? Or maybe hedging against potential European Union sanctions? Gold - a finite asset as opposed to a fiat currency - can help stabilize economies amid times of market turmoil. Bullion has a time-honored appeal as a haven and hedge against inflation. And gold has a negative correlation with the dollar, which means its value often rises when there’s a dip in global demand for the U.S. currency...Central banks now hold more than 33,000 metric tons of the metal, about a fifth of all the gold ever mined....Poland and Hungary happen to be the two countries currently rattling Europe's liberal order....There was talk that the two nations were trying to 'brace for a potential currency crisis' should global inflation pick up; preparing themselves in case Russia starts settling trades with gold; or asserting their independence from the Brussels-based leadership of the EU....Central banks will probably buy about 350 tons of gold this year and another 300 tons in 2019, according to JPMorgan Chase & Co."

"Markets in Turmoil" - The Upside of Downside -Pension Partners
"Fear is in the air again. Over the past few weeks, the S&P 500, Dow, and Russell 2000 have given back all of their gains on the year. Meanwhile, international indices have fared much worse, with the average country ETF down 14% year-to-date. The list of countries hitting 52-week lows is a mile long. If the month ended today, it would be the worst for the S&P 500 since February 2009. Unsurprisingly, financial media has taken notice. For the second time in two weeks, CNBC has aired an after-hours special report, 'Market Sell-Off'....The data set of 'Markets in Turmoil' reports starts in 2010, and is therefore is limited to a bull market run where corrections have been short-lived. When next real bear market hits, there will surely be losses following these specials....For longer-term investors, the upside of downside is clear: it's an opportunity to add money or reinvest dividends at lower prices/valuations and higher prospective returns."

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Gold last traded at $1,235 an ounce. Silver at $14.70 an ounce.

NEWS SUMMARY: Precious metal prices rose Friday for the fourth straight week on safe-haven buying. U.S. stocks plunged into correction territory led by disappointing tech earnings despite upbeat Q3 GDP data.

Wall St., Main St. Look For Gold Upside To Continue -Kitco
"Wall Street and Main Street look for gold to maintain its upward momentum next week, with the metal currently headed for its fourth straight weekly gain, based on the Kitco News gold survey. Eighteen market professionals took part in the Wall Street survey. Twelve respondents, or 67%, predicted higher prices by next Friday. Just one respondent, or 6%, called for lower, while five participants, or 28%, looked for a sideways market. Meanwhile, 444 people responded to an online Main Street poll. A total of 291 respondents, or 66%, called for gold to rise....'I am bullish for next week,' said Kevin Grady, president of Phoenix Futures and Options, commenting that the metal broke above the 100-day moving average around $1,231 this week. 'Gold is getting boosted by risk aversion and outright fear buying,' Flynn said. 'With global stock markets under extreme pressure, gold is being used as risk aversion. Even as the dollar gains strength, gold is breaking out, which usually bodes well for gold prices going forward.' George Gero, managing director with RBC Wealth Management, also looks for higher prices, saying 'stock volatility is a wakeup call for asset allocators.'"

Stocks Crater as S&P Joins Nasdaq in Correction -Bloomberg
"The slide in U.S. stocks picked up speed, with the S&P 500 Index extending losses from its September record to 10 percent, as disappointing reports from technology bellwethers added to this week’s turbulence in financial markets. Treasuries and gold rallied amid renewed demand for havens. The Nasdaq Composite Index, which lapsed into corrective territory Wednesday, is on pace for its fourth consecutive weekly decline, with Amazon.com and Alphabet leading shares lower....Investors got a brief reprise after a report showed the U.S. economy expanded at a high-than-forecast 3.5 percent pace last quarter. 'At this point, we're going to go through a corrective rotation,' said Peter Sorrentino, chief investment officer at Comerica Asset Management. 'I don’t think there's any group of stocks that's going to pull us out of this....Gold spiked toward the highest since July and the rally in Treasuries pushed the two-year note yield down 10 basis points this week."

Stock Prices Falling Is Perfectly Normal -All Star Charts
"When the stock market is not going up, the blame game gets played. It's a combination of shareholders losing money and media types needing something to say. It's always someone or something's fault and rarely described as a normal occurrence. The truth, however, is that yes, stocks falling in price is part of the regular cycles that we’ve always seen. In fact, stock markets that don’t have periods of falling prices are incredibly abnormal....Recognizing that stock prices falling is a regular occurrence that needs no explanation in order to profit from it, is a huge advantage. Think about all the time and energy spent by so many looking for who to blame, instead of spending that time trying to figure out how to profit from it. To make things worse, I see people going out of their way to hear opinions of journalists and economists about why markets are not going up. I kid you not, sometimes people watch tv specials on Sunday evenings, instead of spending time with their families, just to hear journalists make up reasons for why stocks are falling, when we all know it’s just perfectly normal behavior....This is just part of the regular process of the market. Let's not pretend it's not."

Three Stages of Gold -Snyder/Alhambra Partners
"After being pounded all year, collateral, gold is up sharply since a few days after China reopened from its National Day Golden Week – under liquidation. The collateral part, deflation, is easy. All that re-emerging 'overseas turmoil' in emerging markets set off a chain reaction against all collateral forms (haircuts and transformations, EM corporates in particular). Gold stabilized in mid-August and then finally jumps in the middle of October....Systemic fear in sentiment eventually overcoming the mechanics of collateral in gold....It should be clear by now that something's off about 2018. It can't be rate hikes, there were those in 2017, too. The question going forward toward 2019 is whether what's not right is itself evolving even more unfavorably. The three stages of gold: reflation, collateral, fear. The last does seem more consistent with overseas turmoil that isn't so far away."

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Gold last traded at $1,232 an ounce. Silver at $14.63 an ounce.

NEWS SUMMARY: Precious metal prices eased back Thursday on mild profit-taking and a firmer dollar. U.S. stocks tried to rebound from a tumble in the previous session that sent two of the major indexes down for 2018.

Central Banks to Increase Gold Buying for First Time Since 2013 -Bloomberg
"Central banks are set to increase their purchases of gold in 2018 for the first time in five years as eastern European and Asian countries seek to diversify their reserves. Net purchases of gold by central banks are forecast to rise to 450 metric tons this year, up from 375 tons in 2017, according to consultancy Metals Focus Ltd. That will be the first increase since 2013, when banks boosted their holdings by 646 tons, the most for several decades. With just over two months of the year left, it's more likely that the projection will be raised than lowered because central banks generally seem interested in purchases, according to Junlu Liang, a senior analyst at London-based Metals Focus. 'Official sector purchases are likely to remain healthy, as a result of ongoing efforts to diversify reserves among emerging market countries,' Liang said in a weekly note....The biggest driver of this year's gain has been Russia, whose central bank has added about 20 tons on average every month."

Tech Stocks Bounce Back From Correction -Fox Business
Swiss America Chairman Craig R. Smith discussing the future prospect of a stock market recovery from the edge of bear market territory; reached on Wednesday. Mr. Smith discussed the influence computer algorithm trading has had - distorting stock price movements both up and down. Mr. Smith also discussed the risks of the U.S. dollar's rise in 2018, making U.S. products more expensive and less competitive overseas. Watch the interview.

When Will The Fed Step In To Rescue Markets? -Zero Hedge
"In a time of rising concern about stock markets, as one of its questions in the latest Fund Managers Survey released last week, Bank of America asked 'what level on the S&P 500 do you think would cause the Fed to stop hiking rates?' What it found is that according to the respondents, the Fed would stop hiking if the S&P 500 fell to 2390, suggesting the 'Powell put' strike price is about -12% below current levels. On Thursday morning, with stocks having wiped out their 2018 gains and with increasing worries about a market that is seemingly no longer backstopped by a central bank, Bloomberg picks up on this theme and notes that with 'global investors swimming in a sea of red', they have become consumed with one magic number: the strike price of the so-called Powell Put....According to BNP Paribas, a 6% drop in the S&P 500 Index to 2,500 would be the resistance level that would prompt a response from Powell. 'A 10 percent to 15 percent drop in equities is usually the difference between noise and signal,' BNP Paribas analysts said in a note....Meanwhile, the Fed itself has been cryptic with its 'market rescuing' intentions, with officials downplaying bouts of market volatility in 2018, citing the health of the U.S. economic trajectory and the tight labor market....Deutsche further explained, it is very unlikely that the market will sell off in a calm, cool and collected manner from its current level to 2,300; in fact, the drop would likely be far more stormy as a result of unwinding convexity flows, which push investors out of equities and into bonds."

Dow swoons make October most volatile month in 118 years -Fox Business
"October, also dubbed the 'jinx month' by investors, historically has always been a volatile month for stocks, largely due to the crashes of 1929 and 1987 and a general superstitious sentiment. For the Dow Jones Industrial Average, October 2018 is now on record as the most volatile month in 118 years, based on daily percentage swings since 1900, the most ever. For the S&P 500, the broadest measure of stocks, volatility is the highest in 90 years or since the modern day index rolled out in 1928, also the most on record, according to the Dow Jones Market Data Group....What gives? With the midterms approaching, some including White House Economic Advisor Larry Kudlow suggest investors are nervous Democrats will win control of the House and undo Trump's historic tax plan and his cutting of regulatory red tape. While other investors raised concerns over a negative impact of tariffs....Other investors, including the Trump administration, are confident the volatility will dissipate because the fundamentals of the economy are strong, as noted in statement released after the market's grubbing on Wednesday."

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Gold last traded at $1,231 an ounce. Silver at $14.67 an ounce.

NEWS SUMMARY: Precious metal prices steadied Wednesday after hitting 3-month highs on a firmer dollar. U.S. stocks fell as losses in tech and AT&T shares outweighed a post-earnings bounce in Boeing.

The stock market faces 'unlimited downside risk,' warns veteran trader -Marketwatch
"The stock market opened with a resounding thud on Tuesday morning, as the Dow, at one point, had shed more than 500 points. So, you must positioning yourself for that tasty bounce we've grown accustomed to over the course of this stubborn bull market. Well, don't, warns J.C. Parets, the technical analyst behind the All Star Charts blog. 'There is unlimited downside risk in the market right now and I don’t think it's being respected,' he wrote. 'It's not until afterwards that they ask, 'what happened?' When the bottom falls out, that's when the blaming begins. He pointed to several divergences that should make clear to investors just how precarious the market situation is at these current levels....Parets now sees a crash on the horizon, and he recommends investors lighten their equity load. 'If it doesn't happen, then so be it. But why not be aware that it is certainly on the table and the evidence is piling up,' he said. 'What if we just grind sideways for six months and don’t collapse? Either way, crash or long sideways grind, I still don’t want to be long.'"

Democrats Need to Talk About the Caravan -Editors/Bloomberg
"The U.S. border and the immigration laws that defend it are necessary pillars of U.S. sovereignty. Marching on the U.S. border is misguided and dangerous; those who attempt it should understand that it does not result in automatic admission or asylum. Entry into the U.S. is a privilege, not a right. In response to the march, President Donald Trump has tweeted his intention to deploy the U.S. military to 'close our Southern border.' He’s also threatened to halt U.S. aid to the governments concerned as punishment for failing to block the caravan. And in response to the president? Well, Democrats have been ominously silent. This is a mistake - and an abdication of responsibility. Democrats, who are trying to make the case for their ascension in the midterm elections, need to make clear that they agree with Trump on the need for a secure border and that they are prepared to work with him to ensure that it remains so. The first step ought to be straightforward. Democrats should call on the marchers to turn back, far and away the best solution....Democrats can also underscore the importance of looking beyond the political moment and toward actual remedies. U.S. aid can help stabilize Central American countries, giving people fewer reasons to flee....Democrats are right to demand compassion for the migrants. But they will be failing the test of leadership if they seem to say the border doesn’t matter..."

'Shaky' Global Stock Markets Trigger Bid For Gold -Sprott/Kitco
"Volatility in global stock markets is boosting demand for gold, which has stood 'the test of time,' said Eric Sprott, billionaire precious metals investor and founder of Sprott Inc. As central banks around the world stepped up gold purchases, shouldn't investors follow suit, Sprott was asked during the company’s Weekly Wrap-Up segment. 'In India, the central bank bought some gold for the first time in over a decade. Hungarians increased their gold [tenfold to 31.5] tons. Poland also made purchases,' Sprott said. And that's aside from continued purchases of Russia and China, he added. In the meantime, physical demand is also picking up, with India importing 95 metric tons of gold in August, Sprott added. These are all positive numbers that investors should be paying attention to because there's significant risk in the markets and gold is a proven safe-haven asset, he explained....On top of that, most stock markets in the world are in a bear market, he pointed out."

Worried about Climate Change? Count Your Blessings! -American Institute for Economic Research
"Whatever worries might trouble us today about climate change, we should consider ourselves fortunate to be so troubled. The reason is that we have been liberated from the foulest and most lethal environmental hazards that cursed our pre-industrial ancestors. Were we not so liberated, all of the predicted ill-consequences of climate change...would rank so low on our scale of concerns as not to register at all. The relatively remote and provisional concerns about climate change register in our consciousness only because the industrial market economy has so thoroughly scrubbed our environment clean. Yet our resulting focus on climate change and other environmental costs conventionally blamed on the market causes us to miss the market's enormous environmental benefits. Consider your home. Beneath your feet you have hard floors rather than floors of dirt. Above your head you have a hard roof rather than one of thatch. As a result, far fewer fungi, bacteria, insects, and rodents pollute the surface of your living space....You today also have potable water available through your faucets....In your medicine cabinet there are sanitary disposable bandages and antibacterial ointments that painlessly cleanse your cuts, scrapes, and blisters of bacteria that might otherwise kill you....In your garage or driveway sits yet another amazing anti-pollutant: your automobile. Sure, it does emit carbon monoxide into the air when you drive it, but your automobile does not emit onto the streets on which you live and work the bacterial wastes that were emitted by the horses and other draft animals that people used before the automobile became ubiquitous....Any clear-eyed examination of daily capitalist reality reveals that the environment within which each of us lives today is far more sanitary, safe, and pleasant - far less polluted - than was the daily environment of our pre-industrial ancestors. This fact doesn't mean that climate change and other alleged environmental problems aren't real or worth trying to mitigate. But an honest assessment of the environmental consequences of industrial market economies does lead to the conclusion that, all things considered, humankind's environment, far from being polluted by capitalism, has been cleaned by capitalism."

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Gold last traded at $1,236 an ounce. Silver at $14.79 an ounce.

NEWS SUMMARY: Precious metal prices jumped higher Tuesday on safe-haven buying. U.S. stocks plummeted on disappointing earnings and rising investor angst over high market valuations amid so much geopolitical risk.

Gold Prices Rally to 3-Month High in Risk-off Trade -Investing
"Gold prices rallied to a three-month high on Tuesday, as a slew of geopolitical and economic concerns soured sentiment, prompting investors to flock to safe-haven assets. Pessimism gripped investors amid renewed concerns over a host of economic and geopolitical issues, including U.S. President Donald Trump's threats to pull out of the US-Russia nuclear arms agreement, U.S. midterm elections and the fallout from the murder of Saudi critic Jamal Khashoggi. Concerns over the U.S.-China trade war, the dispute over Italy's budget and a lack of progress in Brexit negotiations also soured market sentiment. The yellow metal is often sought in times of geopolitical tension or market turbulence. In other metals action, silver prices were 15.4 cents higher, or around 1%, at $14.81 a troy ounce. Platinum gained 1.2% at $832.30, while palladium futures surged 2.1% to a record high of $1,130.40."

Stocks Tumble; S&P Touches Lowest Level Since May -Bloomberg
"U.S. stocks slumped, with the Dow tumbling as much as 548 points, after results from Caterpillar and 3M added to concern that corporate profit growth has peaked. The yen, gold and Treasuries all rallied on demand for haven assets...The sell-off in U.S. equities put the S&P on track for its 12th loss in 14 days as investors grow concerned that the trade war and rising interest rates have put an end to runaway expansion of corporate profits. 'The general sentiment among investors is they've gotten accustomed to having stable markets so when volatility rears its ugly head, they worry about it a lot more,' said Andy Kapyrin, director of research at RegentAtlantic....The Stoxx Europe 600 Index slid to the lowest level since December 2016 and Asian equities teetered on the verge of a bear market. Some of the steepest losses were in Japan, Hong Kong and China, where shares had posted the biggest jump in more than two years a day earlier....U.S. growth data later in the week as well as earnings from companies including Amazon, Alphabet, Microsoft and Intel could be key to how far much further the drop will go."

Former Fed Chairman Paul Volcker thinks 'we're in a hell of a mess' -CNBC
"Former Federal Reserve Chairman Paul Volcker, who has reached legend status in the world of central banking, isn't optimistic about current conditions. When Volcker looks around now, he sees 'a hell of a mess in every direction,' including a lack of basic respect for government institutions, a current Fed that seems to be following a completely arbitrary benchmark and a 'swamp' in Washington run by plutocrats....'I don't know, how can you run a democracy when nobody believes in the leadership of the country?' Volcker asks. 'There is no force on earth that can stand up effectively, year after year, against the thousands of individuals and hundreds of millions of dollars in the Washington swamp aimed at influencing the legislative and electoral process,' says Volker.

Note from Swiss America Chairman Craig R. Smith: So far, October 2018 has been the worst month for the Dow since the financial crisis of 2008. The Dow index is down almost 8%, the S&P index is down just under 8%. Some will say this is a healthy correction; I'm not convinced. In the age of computer trading, small moves coupled with a touch of bad news can compute into major losses. Finding true value in stocks today is tough to identify, given the affect program trading has on the daily indexes. Second, We have a breakdown of basic respect for U.S. institutions and their leaders which is essential in a democracy, as former Fed Chairman Paul Volker reminded CNBC today. Whether the president, or the head of the Fed, there is very little public respect for the structures that have worked for the last 242 years. Unless we can regain confidence in our key institutions, we will see further decay in our traditions. All of this once again establishes the strong need for Americans to own tangible assets, like gold and silver, for long-term protection against our present fiat money system.

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Gold last traded at $1,224 an ounce. Silver at $14.60 an ounce.

NEWS SUMMARY: Precious metal prices eased back Monday on mild profit-taking. U.S. stocks fell as investors worried about slowing global growth and rising geopolitical tensions.

Gold Could Experience Mother-Of-All Short Covering -Forbes
"Gold is back under the spotlight because of the renewed appetite amidst traders. This is primarily because of the rising geopolitical tensions and worries over the slowing global economic growth. The gold price traded near a two-and-a-half-month peak last week and is at $1,227 at the time of writing....Anxieties around the trade war started to impact the sentiment and this triggered a profit warning by Wall Street analysts. On top of this, we also had the International Monetary Fund (IMF) coming out with a downward revision of the global economic growth. The bearish sentiment since then has picked up strength and many more hedge fund analysts have started to believe that there are more chances for a serious correction than a bull run....Simply put, the geopolitical tensions have started to make investors seriously worried about their portfolios and if we factor in the growth concerns over in China, it becomes clear why speculators have started to scale back from their gold short positions....It is important to emphasize that back in 2015, when speculators had net long positions, it triggered a 30% move in the gold price. A similar move would help the price move to $1,500....An equally important fact, is that the gold price has been gaining traction while the dollar index maintained its strength. During the past few weeks we have seen a positive correlation between the dollar index and the gold price. This shows that gold This shows that the gold price is immune to the dollar effect now."

"Ignore The Green On Your Screens" - Trader Warns "These Are Very Unfriendly Market Conditions" -Zero Hedge
"Taking the 10% (yes 10%) surge in Chinese stocks in the last two days as a sign of anything other than pure market manipulation is a mistake. This is the biggest 2-day spike in Chinese stocks since March 2016 as The National Team stepped in 'just one more time' (and that did not end well). How many more times do the incessant gamblers double-down that this rebound is different and just a little bit more stimulus, monetary - of course, will reverse the almost decade-long trend of slowing growth in the red Ponzi (as debt spirals out of control)?....It’s as if investors have decided that there are existential risks out there which make traditional reaction functions to economic news irrelevant. Even stocks flying around isn't getting a rise out of other assets....It appears the market is already realizing what a farce the ramp was."

Midterms: Poorest states have Republican legislatures, and richest have Democratic ones -Fisher/USA Today
"On Oct. 4, USA TODAY published a breathtaking economic profile of all 50 states, ranked by household income. Embedded within it is arguably the greatest unseen political truth of our time....Though income drives the rankings from poorest (West Virginia) to richest (Maryland), the list also includes population, unemployment and poverty rates. To unlock the political secret in these data points, look at which party controls state legislatures. What you see is exactly the reverse of our cultural mythology: Heading into midterms, Republicans are very much the party of the poor and Democrats are the party of the rich. This seemingly sounds nuts. It isn't...Eighteen of the 19 poorest states have legislatures where both chambers are Republican controlled....But all five richest states have both legislative chambers controlled by Democrats - Maryland, New Jersey, Hawaii, Massachusetts and Connecticut. Overall, Democrats dominate the 20 richest states....It’s a central money issue. November’s vote is a timely re-test. Will poor voters reverse this trend and by how much? I don’t know...If America’s poor states remain Republican at the bottom, so will our Electoral College and the Republicans’ growing ability to win the presidency and control the Senate with a minority of the national popular vote. If a big blue wave also wins back many poor-state legislatures, then 2020 may introduce a new wave of Democratic economic and social principles – via Democratic presidents and Senates. It will determine whether we see more regulation or less. Or more or fewer federal programs, and all the other things the two parties see so differently....Will the Republican Party nationally remain the party of the poor at the grassroots level? Or will Democrats regain that mantle they held long ago? The outcome determines two very different economic and money policy futures for America."

With just 14 days before the midterm elections, now is the time to prepare your portfolio for a potential shift of power and money. Read our FREE report, How The Midterm Elections Will Affect Your Bottom Line to find out what a 'blue wave' might do to your financial future.

Trump should tackle our overvalued dollar next -The Hill
"The U.S. dollar is significantly overvalued - and rising - in global markets....Each day, global investors purchase massive amounts of U.S. securities and financial assets. This incoming capital benefits the financial industry but creates few jobs for everyday Americans. Worse, it has the unfortunate side effect of driving up the dollar's value in global markets. The resulting 'strong dollar' ... makes U.S. products more expensive for overseas consumers. And it also makes imports from Asia and the EU cheaper in the U.S. market. The strong dollar is loved by Wall Street, since it helps to sell stocks and bonds. But it hurts America’s workers, farmers and ranchers when it makes their products more expensive overseas....Every 1 percent increase in the dollar’s value adds roughly $25 billion annually to the price tag of U.S. exports....Overall, the dollar is now overvalued by as much as 25 percent. That means exports from Boeing, Caterpillar, Ford and the nation’s farmers cost foreign buyers 25-percent more than they should....President Trump should use such latitude to impose a fee on excessive incoming foreign capital. This would gradually push the dollar back to its fair-market value, making U.S. exports more competitive globally and gradually eliminating the trade deficit."

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Gold last traded at $1,230 an ounce. Silver at $14.65 an ounce.

NEWS SUMMARY: Precious metal prices rose Friday on safe-haven buying and a weaker dollar. U.S. stocks rose amid upbeat corporate earnings as Wall Street tried to rebound from steep losses in the previous session.

Investors Are Digging Gold Again -Wall Street Journal
"In times of market turmoil, investors often embrace gold. That has certainly been the case so far this month. New York gold futures are up about 3% so far in October versus a roughly 4% decline for the S&P 500. Shares of many of the world's biggest gold miners, meanwhile, have notched double-digit gains....Gold-miner stocks allow investors to double down on bets the gold price will rise....While gold and related assets have historically been used as safe places to invest during times of economic or political stress, they found few fans during the downturn at the start of the year or during the summer turmoil in emerging markets....'Given the strength of the U.S. dollar we've seen and slight concern now about the fiscal position in the U.S. following stimulus measures and tax reform, there's some concern around the U.S. dollar as an ultimate safe haven,' said Roger Jones, head of equities at London & Capital."

Interest rates are rising - time to change strategy -MoneyWeek
"The recent wobble in markets was largely down to one thing - the days of easy money are at an end. 'I think the Fed has gone crazy.' That was US president Donald Trump passing judgment on what spooked markets last week....Whatever you think of Trump, he is broadly correct on the root cause of the correction. There are many reasons for markets to be jittery, but the primary driver of the most recent sell-off has been a wave of fear about rising interest rates....Markets now believe that the Fed will raise interest rates once more this year, and then again three times in 2019. As Bob Prince of hedge fund giant Bridgewater Associates sums it up in the Financial Times: 'We are clearly shifting from an era of monetary easing to monetary tightening.'....The problem is, we’ve grown rather too used to low and falling interest rates...As that debt pile starts to become more expensive, the consequences will make life a lot harder for investors."

Trade war with China could lead to recession sooner rather than later -CNN Money
"Take a trade war with China, mix in frosty economic relations with Canada and Europe, add in Federal Reserve rate hikes and here's what you get: A recession by 2020. So says Ronald Temple, head of US equity for Lazard Asset Management. He told CNN Business that President Donald Trump's protectionist policies may lead to a deep slowdown in the economy, particularly because these trade skirmishes coincide with rising interest rates. 'A recession in the near-term is not inevitable, but the risk of one by 2020 has increased substantially in the past few months,' Temple said. 'Take trade wars off the table and that significantly reduces the risk of recession.' China has more options than it once did, and the Trump administration's hardline stance makes a prolonged stalemate more likely."

The Price of BernieCare -Wall Street Journal
"Chuck Schumer declared last week that health care is the issue that will define the November elections, and the Senate Minority Leader may be right for the wrong reason. Democrats could end up paying a big political price for signing up en masse for Bernie Sanders's government-run health-care agenda. President Trump framed the issue last week in a USA Today op-ed that said 'Democrats would gut Medicare with their planned government takeover of American health care.'...Mr. Trump is referring to the Bernie Sanders bill known as Medicare for All, which has been endorsed by 16 Senators, including almost all of the left's leading 2020 presidential contenders (Cory Booker, Kamala Harris, Kirsten Gillibrand, Elizabeth Warren). A companion House bill has attracted more than 120 co-sponsors, which is nearly two-thirds of the current Democratic caucus....Medicare for All would finance health care through taxes instead of insurance premiums, deductibles and co-pays. All care would then be 'free' in the Venezuelan sense of the word....Mr. Trump noted in his op-ed that the plan would cost the federal government $32.6 trillion over 10 years. That figure is from an analysis by the Mercatus Center’s Charles Blahous, a respected researcher and a former Social Security and Medicare trustee who sometimes writes for us...That spending figure amounts to 10.7% of GDP in 2022 when the plan kicks in and then up from there....The truth is that BernieCare would essentially blow up the entire current health system. The Sanders bill would eliminate employer-sponsored insurance, which now covers some 150 million Americans. The sales pitch for that should be: If you like your health-care plan, we won't let you keep it...ObamaCare was merely a down payment on BernieCare."

The Robot Economy Will Run on Blockchain -Nautilus
"What finance will look like when it is controlled by machines. Our future will be bright, fast - and full of robots. It'll be more Asimov than Terminator: servant robots, more or less similar to us...Forecasts predict that, within just three years, we'll have 1.7 million robots in industry, 32 million in our households, and 400,000 in professional offices. Robots will begin to run our factories. Autonomous sensors will monitor infrastructure. Robots will order parts for themselves and raw materials for production. Logistics will be run by chains of unmanned vehicles stationed at autonomous bases....Human operators will be too slow to oversee these transactions, which we can expect to happen at 20,000 transactions per second. Therefore, for the future we are building, we will need to invent not just robots - but robot money and robot markets....Fortunately, there is a technology that can potentially solve the economic and technological difficulties of robot markets. It’s called blockchain. Briefly put, the blockchain is a public ledger whose information is stored in consecutive 'blocks' of information, and is protected by a consensus algorithm....Blockchain was first successfully implemented for crypto-currencies like bitcoin, creating mathematically protected trade operations independent of external administrators like banks or state bodies. Then, in 2015, the Ethereum platform was launched, allowing for smart contracts to be placed on the blockchain....Together with the rise of robots will be the advent of what we call 'supercapitalists' - investors in the economy of robots, leveraging the efficiencies and scale of the robot markets. Capital will become the dominant means of controlling robot behavior."

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Gold last traded at $1,230 an ounce. Silver at $14.60 an ounce.

NEWS SUMMARY: Precious metal prices extended gains Thursday on technical momentum and market volatility. U.S. stocks resumed their decline amid China worries, a slowing global economy and Italian bond jitters.

Gold: Why Price Will Now Rally -Seeking Alpha
"Gold now seems to have broken clear of the trading range it has been in since mid-August. We are getting some consolidation at present, but price is managing to remain above the $1,220 level. The $1,220 level was crucial in that we needed this price to be taken out for a weekly swing to form....So, what are the ramifications of gold breaking out of this trading range last week? Well, the traders who are long which means that they bought over the past 2 months are going to be obviously content. Why? Because they are going to believe they were right and will probably regret not having bought more....In terms of cycles, there now is a high probability that gold printed an intermediate low on the 16th of August and is now on its second daily cycle which started on the 28th of September....Technical traders joined the longs once price broke above $1,220. We believe now that this level has become support."

Their money worthless, Venezuela’s desperate flee by foot -Associated Press/SLO<
"As night approached, Sandra Cadiz wrapped her shivering daughter in a blanket and prayed for a ride up the frigid Colombian mountaintop known as 'the icebox.' Ten-year-old Angelis already had on nearly all of the clothes she'd brought for the 2,700-mile trek through four countries....The mother and daughter had fled Venezuela on foot, joining more than 650 migrants who walk away from the collapsing nation each day because they cannot afford a plane or bus ticket. Cadiz knew not everyone survived the trek across dangerous borders and an unforgiving terrain, but she feared staying in Venezuela would mean her already malnourished daughter going hungry....In one of the biggest migrations in the world today, more than 1.9 million people have fled poverty, hunger, crime and hyperinflation in Venezuela since 2015 - rivaling the flow of Middle Eastern and African refugees to Europe....Cadiz and her daughter were also trying to escape the suffocating heat when a man in a black sombrero gave them 50,000 Colombian pesos - the equivalent of $16. 'I hope you never vote for Maduro again,' he told them." Full story

This is just one of nearly two million heart-wrenching stories of a mother and daughter trying to survive the downfall of a socialist nation and their debauched currency. Yet in America we are still having a serious debate, leading up to the midterm elections, of whether or not our nation should follow the descending path toward democratic socialism. Thankfully we have the power to cast our vote against such future human and economic misery.

Is The Fed Trying To Sabotage Trump? -Snyder/Zero Hedge
"Just weeks before Americans will go to the polls, the Fed has been making headline after headline with talk about interest rate hikes. And they very well understand that interest rate hikes will rattle investors and slow down the economy. In fact, every Fed rate hiking cycle since 1957 has ended in either a stock market crash or a recession. So could the Federal Reserve be doing this on purpose in order to sabotage Donald Trump and the Republicans?....The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell Wednesday in volatile trading after a summary of the Federal Reserve's most-recent meeting showed the central bank was leaning toward more rate hikes moving forward....Stocks in Asia were broadly lower on Thursday morning, as a Fed report hints at more rate hikes ahead....Nobody has more control over the economy than the Federal Reserve does, and nobody has more influence over the financial markets than the Federal Reserve does either. If the American people truly understood the Federal Reserve, there would be 'End the Fed' protests in every city in America tomorrow morning....And if stock prices really start to tumble over the next few weeks, that would really help Democrats in the upcoming mid-term elections....One major event could change everything, and without a doubt this is going to be one of the most interesting midterm election cycles in ages."

The U.S. housing recovery is built on quicksand -Marketwatch
"Home price gains since 2013 have been much less impressive than you think. While reports show that home prices have recovered nationwide, the increase has been uneven and not as strong as you have been led to believe. Consider RealtyTrac's latest report on 148 major U.S. metropolitan areas. The average gain on the sale of property was 30%. Not bad, except the average holding period was just over eight years. That comes to an annual price increase of 3.75%. High-yield corporate bonds would have earned you considerably more. Taken together, the average gain for all metros is deceptive...Statistics from brokerage Trulia.com show that sales volume has declined substantially in all major metros from the torrid pace of 2005-2006. Most analysts have attributed the weak sales, as well as rising prices, to a lack of available inventory....Another important feature of the Trulia report is its breakdown of affordability....It's important to understand that the so-called recovery in U.S. housing starting in 2012 did not occur because of an improving economy and a growing demand for homes. Instead, specific actions were taken by mortgage lenders, their servicers, and the government to prop up markets because millions of homeowners were still delinquent on their mortgages and faced the threat of foreclosure. These homes owned by deadbeat borrowers, which have been intentionally kept out of foreclosure, will put tremendous downward pressure on home prices when lenders can no longer kick the can down the road."

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Gold last traded at $1,226 an ounce. Silver at $14.66 an ounce.

NEWS SUMMARY: Precious metal prices inched higher Wednesday despite a firmer dollar. U.S. stocks zig-zagged as gains in banks and Netflix offset corporate earning and housing market worries.

You may be surprised at how many S&P 500 stocks have fallen at least 50% from record highs -Marketwatch
"Even as the bull market soon turns 10 years old, you might be surprised about how many stocks are trading much lower than their all-time highs. Taking a closer look can provide food for thought for bargain hunters. Here are some interesting numbers about the S&P 500, according to data provided by FactSet. Among the S&P 500, 250 stocks were down 20% or more from their all-time closing highs (adjusted for splits and spin-offs) as of the close on Oct. 15. 162 were down at least 30% from their all-time highs. 113 were down at least 40% from their all-time highs. 69 were down at least 50% from their all-time highs. Those are a lot of stocks. Some of them hit their all-time (adjusted) closing highs a long time ago."

How States Can Escape America’s Looming Financial Meltdown -Jarvas/The Daily Bell
"The USA is $21.4 trillion in debt. That is larger than the entire US economy. And it shows no sign of slowing down....Worse still is that the Federal Reserve has the power to print money, and set interest rates. That means the economy you and I see on a daily basis is not reality....We are living in a ticking time bomb. I have no particular faith in any government. But I do believe the smaller the government gets, the easier it is to control....State governments can cushion the collapse of the federal government. This collapse will be triggered by monetary policy....In 1971 that gold standard was removed. Cue decades of inflation mixed with wild booms and busts. Since then, the dollar has lost 85% of its value. Gold and silver, however, have retained their value extraordinarily well. Not just over the last 50 years, over the last thousand years....Bank-like institutions could hold onto your precious metals, and issue debit cards - or simply a spending app for your smartphone. You could then spend the value of your gold and silver anywhere that accepts cards or electronic payment....Rather than allow an irresponsible government in Washington DC to bring down the entire nation, states can cushion the blow and insulate us from a collapsing dollar, or bankrupt government. One way to do that is to encourage citizens to use a gold standard...States could implement this system without having to mint their own coins or create their own money."

As Easy Money Wanes, Investors Scramble to Adapt -Wall Street Journal
"The volatility racking markets this month is the latest chapter in investors' struggle to adapt to a world of reduced central-bank stimulus. The Dow industrials are off 2.5% this month and on course for their worst start to a quarter since 2016. Treasury yields have shot to multiyear highs, pressuring shares from New York to Hong Kong to London. Many investors say the turbulence reflects the early stages of what they call a rotation, a pragmatic decision to reallocate resources away from assets whose gains now appear at risk - in this case, to sectors such as safer bonds and away from the most highly valued stocks....The itch to diversify is being driven by the rise this month in the yield on the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury note to a seven-year high of 3.227%, a rise that reflects the impact of repeated Federal Reserve interest-rate increases and a healthy U.S. economy....Investors' outlook for next year is growing more pessimistic. Roughly 38% of the 174 fund managers managing $518 billion in assets surveyed by Bank of America expect the world economy to decelerate over the next year, the worst global growth outlook in a decade....For years, investors had 'almost a false sense of security in the markets,' said Yousef Abbasi, global market strategist at INTL FCStone."

How gold will bring stability to volatile crypto markets -What Investment
"As the most stable virtual coin, could gold-backed cryptocurrency provide a foundation for prosperity? From fruit and vegetable sellers on the streets of Venezuela, to plumbers and electricians in Zimbabwe, workers trying to make a living in countries plagued by hyperinflation are struggling to survive. Just minutes after exchanging their goods or labor for their native currencies, the payment is virtually worthless....Economists argue that viable forms of currency should provide a reliable means of payment, a unit of account, and store of value. The fluctuating value of cryptocurrencies means they're not a good store of value and their purchasing power is unstable....A stable coin cryptocurrency pegged to the value of gold combines the historical stability of gold, with the modern efficiency of digital currency....The most reliable gold-backed tokens are minted on a proportional basis. That means one token will always be equivalent to one gram of physical gold held in a secure vault....Digital gold combines the historical safety of gold, with the efficiency of digital currency...That’s why it's fast emerging as the foundation on which the future of cryptocurrencies will be built."

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Gold last traded at $1,231 an ounce. Silver at $14.70 an ounce.

NEWS SUMMARY: Precious metal prices rose Tuesday on safe-haven buying and a weaker dollar. U.S. stocks recovered some recent losses on upbeat corporate earnings.

Gold hovers near 2-1/2 month high as investors seek safe haven refuge -Reuters
"Gold prices inched higher early on Tuesday, hovering near a 2-1/2 month high hit in the previous session, as risk averse investors sought a safe haven amid rising political tensions and economic uncertainty....Asian stocks bounced modestly on Tuesday, gaining a toe-hold after a week of heavy losses, although increasing tensions between Saudi Arabia and the West fanned geopolitical concerns and capped gains. Saudi Arabia is preparing to acknowledge the death of Saudi journalist Jamal Khashoggi in a botched interrogation, CNN and the New York Times said on Monday, after U.S. President Donald Trump speculated 'rogue killers' may be responsible....The U.S. government closed the 2018 fiscal year $779 billion in the red, its highest deficit in six years, as Republican-led tax cuts pinched revenues and expenses rose on a growing national debt, according to data released on Monday by the Treasury Department. U.S. retail sales barely rose in September as a rebound in motor vehicle purchases was offset by the biggest drop in spending at restaurants and bars in nearly two years."

Investors were running from stocks even before last week's plunge due to 'more fear' -Larry Fink/CNBC
"BlackRock Chairman and CEO Larry Fink said Tuesday he saw huge outflows before last week's stock plunge due to 'more fear' among investors. 'There's a huge commentary that we are at peak earnings,' Fink, CEO of the world's largest money manager, said in a 'Squawk Box' interview....'Companies are having margin pressures because of rising wages, which may be a good thing for the overall economy but not as good for corporate profitability,' he said. 'Overall, you're seeing more consternation, more fear.' Fink also said most stocks are in correction phase right now....Concerns that the Federal Reserve under Jerome Powell might raise rates more than forecast helped fuel last week's decline. The Fed hiked rates three times this year, and one more is expected in December."

The 'Uncivil' War - Ponte/WND
"'You cannot be civil with a political party that wants to destroy what you stand for, what you care about,' said Hillary Clinton days ago. What this means, she made clear, is that civility can only return when her Democratic Party again controls the government. If our nation does not elect her (or one of her progressive comrades) to rule, then those leftists will be justified in using resistance, undemocratic government power, intimidation and mob violence in a very uncivil war to ruin America....Clinton’s party now schemes to replace American freedom with slavery and serfdom, free enterprise with socialism, individualism with collectivism, and independent nationhood with submission to a borderless authoritarian world government. This 'uncivil' war has already begun. The Democratic Party has for many years given aid and comfort to up to 22 million aliens who illegally invaded our country. Democrats assume that by giving such invaders the right to vote and then citizenship, this would provide their party a winning electoral margin for half a century or more....Today's uncivil Democrats show why the Framers of our Constitution feared the mob. As individuals, most of us are fair and practical; but in emotional groups, people can sometimes easily become a terrorist mob."

How will this rising "uncivil" war affect the outcome of the midterm elections just 21 days away? Read our FREE report, How The Midterm Elections Will Affect Your Bottom Line to find out what a 'blue wave' might do to your financial future.

Sears, a Onetime Retail Giant, Now Banks on Bankruptcy -Wall Street Journal
"Early Monday, Sears filed for bankruptcy protection after years of struggle and relentless losses. Sears said in court papers it faces catastrophic consequences if it can’t repair its supply chain and keep merchandise flowing to the company's stores and warehouses. Some 200 vendors have stopped shipping goods to its stores in the past two weeks and it faces potential liens if it can’t pay logistics companies owed millions of dollars over the coming weeks, Sears said in court papers....ESL Investments, is slated to provide a $300 million bankruptcy-financing package to help keep the retailer in business. ESL Investments also is in discussions to bid for about 400 of the most profitable Sears and Kmart stores, Sears said on Monday. At its peak, the company Mr. Lampert put together from the 2004 merger of Sears, the store 'where America shops' and big-box retailer Kmart, operated more than 2,300 stores. That number had dwindled to fewer than 700 by Sears’s Monday filing. Sears said it would close 142 unprofitable stores near the end of the year, with liquidation sales expected to begin shortly. The closings are in addition to 46 stores that are expected to close by November."

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Gold last traded at $1,230 an ounce. Silver at $14.72 an ounce.

NEWS SUMMARY: Precious metal prices rallied Monday on safe-haven buying and a weaker dollar. U.S. stocks resumed their sell-off led by tech shares as former retail giant Sears declared bankruptcy.

Why it's worth holding a bit of gold in your portfolio -Moneyweek
"We have interest rates going up at a clip that's much faster than certainly a lot of people, including myself, would have anticipated. I think the Fed is out of control. Central banks are independent, in theory. But that won't stop the president of the US from giving his full and frank opinion on their performance. Donald Trump reckons the Federal Reserve is to blame for the recent spasm of panic in markets....Meanwhile, gold - that much-detested haven for those still superstitious enough to fear that economists and central bankers haven't quite got all of this figured out yet - had a big bounce, all the way up to $1,220 an ounce. We don’t know what the Fed will do. It's a difficult position for Jerome Powell to be placed in. If he looks as though he's caved to Trump, then his credibility is shot. Yet at the same time, the Fed has a history of responding to market falls with soothing words....I don't know what'’s going to happen. But to me, this is the point of owning a bit of gold in your portfolio. It's insurance. It's the asset that goes up when most things are going down. It benefits from two main things: currency debasement and panic."

The stock market looks like it is due for more pain, even as it teases with comeback rallies -CNBC
"The market last week hurt investors coming and going. The 5.3 percent crunch in the S&P 500 on Wednesday and Thursday took the index back to early-July levels - inflicting buyer's remorse on anyone who bid into the late-summer rally - while punishing the most popular huge growth stocks of technology the hardest....Jeff deGraaf of Renaissance Macro Research has been respectful of the market uptrend but on alert for a defensive turn in what he sees as a late-cycle environment. On the path from here, with no clear capitulation but no obvious credit stress, 'it's a tough call,' he said. 'Currently, with credit sanguine, we're more confident in resumption of trend. Even if it is the beginning of the end, the playbook would be to see equities bounce further, challenge a new high (if not make one) before puking again.'"

US-China trade war is really a clash of civilizations and ideologies -South China Morning Post
"The conflict between China and the United States is a competition between two different civilizations and value systems....Both Washington and Beijing must know the dispute is about much more than trade. Washington has been reflecting on its China policy, as US vice-president Mike Pence said in his speech at the Hudson Institute on October 4...However, China has refused to follow the path that Washington once hoped it would....Reviewing history, we can see that the US is OK with China’s economic rise but not so its model, which lacks private property protection or democratic election. The US is now seeing the danger of letting that model prevail and is staging a cold war to defend its core values....For now, the rivalry between the world’s two largest economies is not a cold war, dividing the world into two camps. But there is a danger that that will happen. A military clash in the South China Sea could spark such a division. If the US determined to contain and isolate China at any price, it may provoke a battle at sea. Beijing, meanwhile, must realize that a free market and liberal values are America's core interests and it will go to war to defend them – as it did in Korea and Vietnam."

Blain: "Liquidity Will Be The Murder Weapon" -Zero Hedge
"In the headlights this morning: Saudi Arabia: forget the IPO and worry about MbS threating an oil war if the West doesn’t let him murder whomever he doesn’t like. $100 by year end? Brexit: The next millennium bug? Very good interview on Andrew Marr show with head of Next outlined a no-deal will be less than optimal, but it won’t be a disaster. Lets get on with it. Germany: Merkel's affiliate party takes a pasting in Bavaria. Who is out a job first? Merkel or May?....Global Market Reset? The inherent danger of a reset makes sense to me. The reason stock markets are so high might be due to expectations of higher corporate earnings, but I reckon it’s got more to do with the unintended consequences of QE; flooding markets with liquidity and forcing yield tourists out of bonds and into the equity markets. Ultra-artificially-Low interest rates have allowed corporates to borrow trillions. Have they spent it on new factories or creating new jobs? Nope.. the cash was used for stock buy-backs which inflate executive bonuses, or to leverage up private equity by converting equity into debt.. which again benefits the few - the owners!....Risk transfer from banks to investors is yet another unintended consequence of the reaction to the last financial crisis - banks were the vector last time, so new capital regulation and investment rules means we now we face yet another classic 'wake up and smell the coffee' moment as funds discover their asset valuations bear no relation to reality. Why? Because 10-years of bureaucratic handcuffing of the market's invisible hand thru regulatory overkill means they are less liquid than ever before."

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Gold last traded at $1,222 an ounce. Silver at $14.63 an ounce.

NEWS SUMMARY: Precious metal prices stabilized Friday after yesterday's safe-haven buying advance. U.S. stocks attempted to recover from the worst sell-off since February as investors weight the possibility of another market downturn.

Gold Revitalized as Equity Sell-Off Spurs Second Weekly Advance -Bloomberg
"Gold may have finally snapped out of its inertia....Bullion received another shot in the arm during Thursday's surge after data showing weaker-than-expected U.S. inflation raised speculation that the Federal Reserve may slow the pace of interest rate increases. Gold, which hit a 10-week-high of $1,226.42 an ounce on Thursday, had held near $1,200 since late August as traders weighed geopolitical risks that could boost the metal’s allure as a haven against rising interest rates that curb its appeal....'Gold bulls were unstoppable on Thursday as global risk aversion sent investors sprinting to safe-haven assets,' said Lukman Otunuga, research analyst at brokerage FXTM."

As stocks tumble, the U.S. wonders: Is this economy as good as it gets? -Washington Post
"This year's economic performance has consistently exceeded expectations, as the stock market set records, growth accelerated and unemployment moved lower and lower. But the steep sell-off on Wall Street this week - with the Dow Jones industrial average dropping nearly 1,400 points over the past two days - underscored a growing concern among investors and economists that the economy may have nowhere to go but down....The International Monetary Fund this week downgraded its forecast of U.S. growth, which it now predicts will be 2.5 percent next year. The IMF cited Trump’s tariffs and rising interest rates. It expects 2.9 percent U.S. growth this year. A similar story is playing out in the stock market, with Wall Street reassessing just how strong the future looks for American businesses. The Dow has lost 5 percent already this month, the worst October performance since the financial crisis of 2008....'We're in the eighth inning of this expansion, and it's possible there will be a recession in 2020,' said Bernard Baumohl, chief global economist at the Economic Outlook Group."

Jamie Dimon sounds warning about 'geopolitical issues bursting all over the place' -CNBC
"J.P. Morgan Chase CEO Jamie Dimon raised concerns Friday that rising interest rates and geopolitical flareups could derail U.S. economic growth....'If rates go up because you have inflation, that is not a plus. That is a bad thing,' Dimon said. 'So far, we still have a strong economy in spite of these increasing overseas geopolitical issues bursting all over the place.' When asked to name these issues, Dimon rattled off a list that included the Trump administration's trade dispute with China, Brexit, the unwinding of bond-purchasing programs by central banks around the world, as well as flareups across Europe, the Middle East and Latin America including in Italy and Turkey. 'It's an extensive list of stuff,' Dimon said, adding that most of the times, it's rising rates and not geopolitical issues that ends up derailing economic cycles."

Gold Set To Climb Over $1300? BofA Thinks So -Zero Hedge
"According to the Bank of America Merrill Lynch, gold is set to take a run over the next year due to the constant cloud of uncertainty with regards to the U.S budget deficit alongside concerns over trade wars. The head of global commodities and derivatives research, Francisco Blanch has stated that gold could average $1,350 an ounce of 2019 due to the U.S fiscal balance. 'We're still pretty constructive longer term on gold,' because of worries over the future of the U.S. economy...said New York-based Blanch. 'Can the U.S. borrow its way out of the next downturn and at what cost?...Eventually the trade wars are going to come back to bite the U.S.,' said Blanch. One of the world's most successful hedge fund managers Ray Dalio has also gone on record to express his concern over the budget. Mr. Dalio has predicted that the US economy is nearly 2 years away from a downturn, which will result in the dollar plunging as the government prints money to fund the growing deficit. Goldman Sachs has also expressed their concern and has recently turned bullish on gold as they have forecasted a price target of $1,325 in 12 months."

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Gold last traded at $1,227 an ounce. Silver at $14.60 an ounce.

NEWS SUMMARY: Gold prices rocketed up 2% Thursday on safe-haven buying and a weaker dollar. U.S. stocks zig-zagged lower following the worst tech stock rout in seven years.

Gold tops $1,205 mark as share sell-off sparks safe-haven buying -Reuters
"Gold rose more than 1 percent to near three-week highs on Thursday, climbing above $1,200 per ounce as sliding global stock markets prompted risk-wary investors to seek out the metal, with a weaker dollar also supporting prices....European stocks fell in line with a slump on Wall Street, pointing to growing risk aversion across global markets. 'Gold is finding a bit of support from the global sell-off seen in equities. If this (sell-off) persists, we will start seeing more of a move to gold as a safe-haven asset,' ING analyst Warren Patterson said....Wednesday's dive on Wall Street prompted U.S. President Donald Trump to lash out against the U.S. Federal Reserve for raising interest rates. The Fed increased rates last month for the third time this year and is widely expected to hike again in December."

Red October: Is This Wall Street’s Big Correction? -Craig R. Smith/SATC
"Today the DJIA fell 831 points (3.1%), lead by the NASDAQ'S 400 point drop, as rising rate fears caused investors to quickly pivot out of technology stocks. CNBC reports, 'Amazon stocks fell 6.2%, Netflix slid 8.4%, while Facebook and Apple also fell over 4% each – making this the worst day for tech since 2011.' Is this just a minor market correction, or could it be the beginning of the abrupt end of a nearly 10-year bull market in stocks? Time will tell....During the Great Depression there was a period between 1929-1937 where the market had rallies and drops that faked out investors for years. In 1937 the Fed decided to increase interest rates based on their belief that the depression was over and an economic recovery was underway. But they were wrong....The Fed mistakes of 1929-1937 could be the same mistakes they are making today. Sadly, I suspect the result will be the same...Your best financial protection is to have a portion of your assets in physical gold for safety, liquidity and growth potential. Call your Swiss America broker today and take action!" Full story

Michael Savage: Left’s ‘Orchestrated Mass Hysteria’ Over Trump Must Be Stopped -Breitbart
"Talk radio star and New York Times bestselling author Michael Savage has a prescient warning for America: Mass hysteria has overtaken rational political discourse and escalated to a crescendo following the election of Donald Trump. If we don’t learn from past mistakes, Savage argues, the current 'collective derangement' which, he says, is being used by power-hungry actors and channeled into 'orchestrated mass hysteria,' will lead the country to a very dark future. Savage sounds the alarm bells in his latest tome, Stop Mass Hysteria: America’s Insanity from the Salem Witch Trials to the Trump Witch Hunt, which was released Tuesday on Amazon and in bookstores nationwide....'This is an orchestrated mass hysteria. As you well know, the money is coming from somewhere to organize these people who seem to have unlimited time to harass senators, chase people out of restaurants.' In his latest book, Savage traces historical 'mass hysteria' movements going as far back as the days of Christopher Columbus to the Salem Witch Trials to revolutions led by Mao Zedong, Adolph Hitler and Fidel Castro. He identifies hatred and fear as key drivers of such hysterias, where political actors stir up the masses against enemies both real and perceived, as logic and reason get tossed out the window."

Socialism Destroys -Stossel/Reason
"Socialism is hot. Famous actors recently made a commercial proclaiming that 'democratic socialism' creates some of the best parts of America. It's 'your kids' public school' (says Susan Sarandon), the 'interstate highway system' (Rosario Dawson), 'public libraries' (Jay Ferguson), 'EMTs' (Ethan Embry), 'workers who plow our streets' (Max Carver), and 'scientists' (Danny DeVito). Wow. I guess every popular thing government does is socialism. The celebrities conclude: 'We can do better when we do them together.' There is sometimes truth to that, but the movie stars don't know that America's first highways were built by capitalist contractors. They also probably didn't notice that the more popular parts of government - public schools, EMTs, snow plowing, libraries, etc. - are largely locally funded. 'They should wake up,' says Gloria Alvarez. She is from Guatemala and says, 'I've seen the impact of socialism. My father escaped Cuba. My grandfather suffered under Communists in Hungary before escaping.'....'As a child, I was taught to mock socialism,' she says, 'but democratic socialism sounded OK. It made sense that government should take care of the economy. Then I watched democratic socialism fail in Venezuela, Brazil, Argentina, Bolivia, Ecuador, El Salvador, Chile, Nicaragua, and Uruguay. I learned that every time a country started down the socialist path, it fails.'"

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Gold last traded at $1,193 an ounce. Silver at $14.32 an ounce.

NEWS SUMMARY: Precious metal prices rose on bargain-hunting and a weaker dollar. U.S. stocks fell over 3% as the October rout continues, led by tech stocks.

US Stocks Plunge Below Critical Support, Everything's Red In October -Zero Hedge
"The Dow just tumbled back into the red for October but it is Trannies, Small Caps, and Nasdaq that are bloodbathing this month as risk-parity deleveraging slams US equity markets below critical technical levels...As the major US equity indices break below critical support...Small Caps crash below the 200DMA...The S&P broke notably below its 50DMA...With bonds and stocks selling off...As Risk-Parity funds continue to delever...And as Bloomberg's Michael Regan notes, massive volumes in S&P 500 puts are part of the reason why equities extended losses so sharply in early trading."

It’s a global gold rush! Worried central banks snap up £13billion hoard amid growing fears of global volatility -This Is Money
"Central banks across the world are hoarding gold amid growing fears about global volatility and a possible downturn for financial markets. They have snapped up almost 275 tons of gold this year alone - 8 per cent ahead of 2017 - at a cost of more than £13 billion. Many national banks have been returning to the market for the first time in years. India bought eight tons, its first purchase since 2009. Poland bought nine tons during the summer, its largest buy since 1998. And Egypt acquired gold for the first time since 1978. Investors often buy gold to protect against falling stock markets and rising inflation. John Meyer, of brokers SP Angel, said: 'Now is a good time to buy gold, not least because President Donald Trump’s unpredictability makes the world a more uncertain place.'....Central banks own more than £1 trillion of gold and are expected to continue offloading dollars to buy more. World Gold Council managing director Natalie Dempster said: 'Gold is the only reserve asset that is completely free from political risk.'"

The Music Fades Out -Hussman/Hussman Funds
"In recent days, the combination of extreme valuations and unfavorable market internals has been joined by acute dispersion in daily trading data that often occurs within a few days of pre-collapse peaks in the market. My opinion is that the music has already quietly faded out like the end of a pop song, in a wholly uneventful way, and that even a surprise push to further highs would be marginal....When investors are inclined to speculate, they tend to be indiscriminate about it. But once the 'uniformity' of market internals deteriorates, valuations often matter suddenly, and with a vengeance. This is a lesson best learned before a crash rather than after one....With respect to the financial markets, present conditions already encourage a highly defensive, even hard-negative investment outlook. Evidence of an oncoming recession is not needed as a condition for a defensive position. To the contrary, a significant market decline will be among the factors that will warn of an oncoming recession...there's an open trap door under the equity market, and it’s a very long way down."

Trillions in US net worth vulnerable to recession: IMF -France 24
"A severe recession would slash US public wealth by about $5 trillion, causing vastly more damage to Washington's finances than just an increase in debt and deficits, the IMF warned Tuesday....Economists now say the chances of a recession in the United States are growing due to several factors, including trade tensions and mounting interest rates....The net worth of the United States has been in decline for nearly four decades. Worsening notably due to the global financial crisis, it had sunk by 2016 to negative 17 percent as a share of GDP, the report said. The federal mortgage giants Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, which the government took over during the crisis, have lent a staggering amount - 44 percent of GDP - to the private sector. But the biggest source of risk comes from state and local government retirement pensions, which can lose money when Wall Street sinks - meaning the shortfall has to come out of local government budgets....The IMF found a severe recession would cut the value of America's publicly held assets by an amount equal to 26 percent of GDP by 2020. At current levels, that would amount to about $5 trillion."

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Gold last traded at $1,191 an ounce. Silver at $14.40 an ounce.

NEWS SUMMARY: Precious metal prices steadied on Tuesday on bargain-hunting and a flat dollar. U.S. stocks traded mostly lower as investors continued to focus on the impact of rising interest rates.

The Next Financial Crisis Is Staring Us in the Face -Ritholtz/Bloomberg
"All it takes to see it is a long look in the mirror. The financial crisis ripped through Wall Street 10 years ago, pushing the global economy to the edge of the abyss. One might think those searing experiences would have created a learning opportunity - for managing risk better, understanding structural imbalances in the financial markets, even learning a bit about how our own cognitive processes malfunction. Instead, we have little new wisdom or self-awareness to show for that traumatic event....You can have a committee of 10 geniuses that proves collectively to be a moron...Salomon Brothers’ Henry Kaufmann (aka Dr. Doom), now 91, made the observation that despite deregulation being a major factor in the crisis, it took less than a decade for many to forget. 'A financial market deregulated is like a zoo without bars,' he said. As memories of the crisis fade as the economy recovers, we find the seeds of the next crisis are already being planted. They are the exact same issues of debt and mismanaging risk and not understanding our own limitations. Failing to learn from our prior experiences, we seem doomed to repeat them. We only have ourselves to blame."

Housing stocks fall into bear market as interest rates climb to multiyear highs -CNBC
"Homebuilding stocks are getting crushed as they take a direct hit from the rising interest rates rattling financial markets this month. The iShares Home Construction exchange-traded fund, which includes homebuilding products and homebuilders, is down 27 percent since January. The SPDR S&P Homebuilder ETF is down 21 percent, also in a bear market. The sector has become viewed as undesirable with the 30-year mortgage rate hitting the crucial 5 percent level. In addition, the 10-year Treasury yield rose to a new seven-year high on Tuesday....'The run-up in rates over the past year is now weighing increasingly heavily on single-family housing demand, particularly since housing prices have risen so much,' said Mark Zandi, chief economist at Moody's Analytics. 'Affordability is now an issue for many potential home owners'....'When rates rise, people might respond by purchasing homes that aren't as expensive.'"

Republicans fear Democratic 'blue wave' spreading to once-safe districts -Reuters
"The last time U.S. congressional elections were held in this central Virginia district, Meg Sneed voted for the Republican incumbent, Representative Dave Brat. Her friend, Cheryll Lesser, did not vote at all. Last week, the two women sat in the second row at a campaign event in a martial arts studio listening to the Democrat running against Brat, Abigail Spanberger. They nodded in agreement with much of what she had to say. But the real reason they were there was basic: Donald Trump. They don't like the president, and they were not about to vote for anyone, like Brat, who supports him. 'More than the policy, it’s the animosity he is fostering within the country,' Sneed said of Trump. Voters such as Sneed and Lesser are a significant reason why Democrats now believe that in the Nov. 6 congressional midterm elections, the party can win more than the 23 seats they need to seize control of the U.S. House of Representatives. Some predict Democrats could take as many as 40 seats by flipping districts like Brat’s in Virginia....If Democrats do take the House, much of Trump’s agenda would be stalled, and his administration would fall under greater scrutiny."

Read our FREE report, How The Midterm Elections Will Affect Your Bottom Line to find out what a 'blue wave' might do to your financial future.

Google Exposed User Data, Feared Repercussions of Disclosing to Public -Wall Street Journal
"Google exposed the private data of hundreds of thousands of users of the Google+ social network and then opted not to disclose the issue this past spring, in part because of fears that doing so would draw regulatory scrutiny and cause reputational damage, according to people briefed on the incident and documents reviewed by The Wall Street Journal. As part of its response to the incident, the Alphabet Inc. unit plans to announce a sweeping set of data privacy measures that include permanently shutting down all consumer functionality of Google+, the people said. The move effectively puts the final nail in the coffin of a product that was launched in 2011 to challenge Facebook Inc. and is widely seen as one of Google's biggest failures. A software glitch in the social site gave outside developers potential access to private Google+ profile data between 2015 and March 2018....Google could also face class action lawsuits over its decision not to disclose the incident, Mr. Saikali said. 'The story here that the plaintiffs will tell is that Google knew something here and hid it. That by itself is enough to make the lawyers salivate,' he said.”

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Gold last traded at $1,188 an ounce. Silver at $14.32 an ounce.

NEWS SUMMARY: Precious metal prices eased back Monday on profit-taking and a firmer dollar. U.S. stocks fell for a third day on growing investor concerns over rising interest rates.

Midterms could lead to pivotal shift in power -Foreman/WTVA
"The midterm elections, a little more than a month away, are a national drama - with voters deciding whether Republican control of the House and Senate will give way to Democrats, who have been hankering for a chance to challenge the priorities and actions of President Donald Trump. But they are also an intensely local story as voters get ready to make their choices in 435 House and 35 Senate races and in 36 gubernatorial contests....In November, the faceoff to watch will be between Republican Sen. Ted Cruz (Texas) and his Democratic challenger Beto O'Rourke. This contest could upend the political order in the Lone Star State....Will Arizona elect its first Democratic senator since 1988?...If Democratic Rep. Kyrsten Sinema pulls out a win over Republican Rep. Martha McSally, it will be hard not to see the significance of a reliably red state voting blue....The electoral race that most encapsulates the potential of this political moment and the future of politics in our nation is Lucy McBath's contest to unseat Republican incumbent Karen Handel in Georgia's 6th Congressional District, just north of Atlanta....Will Georgia elect first black female governor?...The race for governor of Georgia could not be closer. Republican Brian Kemp and Democrat Stacey Abrams are deadlocked."

Democrats could sweep Congress in the November midterms. Might such a dramatic shift in power tip the economy backward and prompt a sorely-overdue stock market correction? Read our FREE report, How The Midterm Elections Will Affect Your Bottom Line to find out. Call 800-289-2646 or registering HERE.

Stocks Drop as Rates Hit 7-Year High -Fox Business
Swiss America Chairman Craig R. Smith discussing how rising interest rates are affecting the financial markets. Mr. Smith feels interest rates above 3% indicate we are in a true economic recovery, but he feels that in this "Goldilocks" economy, it is wise to take a defensive position which includes inflation protection. Watch now

Why gold prices may have already bottomed -Saefong/Marketwatch
"Gold prices may already have hit bottom for the year after declining for the past six months in a row....Lower prices have contributed to a boost in global central-bank purchases of gold. Other signs of a potential bottom for the metal include recent consolidation in the metals mining sector, which can mark a turnaround for the market....'I do believe gold has either reached a floor or is pretty close to one,' says Jeff Wright, executive vice president of mineral exploration company GoldMining Inc. Central banks didn't buy more gold just because of the price decline. 'Questions on U.S.-China trade ramifications [and] Brexit' helped boost demand for haven gold, says Wright. The preliminary U.S., Mexican, and Canadian agreement recently announced should also temper the U.S. dollar's strength, which may ease pressure on dollar-denominated gold prices, he says....Evaluating the rise in central bank gold buying, Natalie Dempster, managing director of Central Banks & Public Policy for WGC, says the move 'reflects a combination of factors, including the desire by some countries to dedollarize in response to political motivations and changing global trade patterns.'”

A Complete National Disgrace -Brooks/New York Times
"Over the past few years, hundreds of organizations and thousands of people (myself included) have mobilized to reduce political polarization, encourage civil dialogue and heal national divisions. The first test case for our movement was the Kavanaugh hearings. It's clear that at least so far our work is a complete failure. Sixty-nine percent of Americans in one poll called the hearings a 'national disgrace,' and the only shocking thing is that there are 31 percent who don’t agree. What we saw in these hearings was the unvarnished tribalization of national life....These hearings were also a devastating blow to intellectual humility. At the heart of this case is a mystery: What happened at that party 36 years ago? There is no corroborating evidence either way. So the crucial questions are: How do we sit with this uncertainty?....The core problem behind all of this is a complete breakdown in the legitimacy of our public institutions. The Supreme Court is no longer a place where justices dispassionately rule on the Constitution. It's a place where they cast predictable party-line votes....The Kavanaugh hearings were a look in the mirror, and a vivid display of how ugly things have become. What are we going to do about it?"

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Gold last traded at $1,205 an ounce. Silver at $14.64 an ounce.

NEWS SUMMARY: Precious metal prices rose on bargain-hunting and a weaker dollar. U.S. stocks fell as less-than-expected jobs data boosted interest rates to fresh 7-year highs.

The U.S. Economy Is on a Sugar High -Bloomberg
"Across the U.S., companies are hitting the panic button. The Trump administration has levied 10 percent tariffs on $200 billion of Chinese goods, a charge that is expected to rise to 25 percent by 2019. This tops the tariffs on $50 billion of Chinese goods that were imposed in August, and is an effective tax on U.S. consumers, who will soon be paying more for everything from cosmetics to clothing to cars if they aren't already. Against that backdrop, it's becoming clear that many companies are rushing to secure products and materials before prices rise regardless of current demand. You could say they are in panic-buying mode....Evidence that panic buying has set in was seen in the September Chicago Purchasing Managers Index report, which is a bellwether for the broader national manufacturing sector....Artificial, tariff-driven panic buying pumps up GDP growth in the short term but ensures it will disappoint in the future. Look for fourth quarter estimates to be revised upwards and then look out below into the first of the year. And no, the first-quarter disappointment will not be the seasonal anomaly many economists typically ascribe to economic growth in the first three months of the year. In other words, it could be that much worse."

In Kavanaugh fight, Capitol Hill shamelessly treats Supreme Court as political branch -Judge Napolitano/Fox News
"Harsh winds are blowing on Capitol Hill. The hoped-for and feared clash between Judge Brett M. Kavanaugh and his principal accuser, Dr. Christine Blasey Ford, has come and gone, with all of its calculated and spontaneous outbursts, as well as gut-wrenching emotion....After all interrogations were completed and after all Senate Judiciary Committee members made public statements, the committee voted along party lines, 11 to 10, to recommend sending Kavanaugh's nomination to the floor of the Senate....Then the committee voted by consensus to ask the White House to dispatch the FBI to reopen its background investigation of Kavanaugh for seven days. It is quite simply unprecedented and unheard of for the Senate Judiciary Committee to ask for FBI agents to investigate a nominee after he has testified about the subject of the investigation and after the committee has approved his nomination....Why is this nomination the subject of such rancor? I have argued countless times that the federal government has grossly exceeded the limitations the Constitution imposes on it. Wherever you are as you read these words, look around you and try to find something in your line of sight that is not regulated by the federal government. It will be nearly impossible....Should the right to life and the extent of the imperial presidency and whether the government is obligated to provide health care be decided by elected representatives or by the Supreme Court? From those who expect the high court to decide these issues - a court now evenly split, 4 to 4, along ideological lines - is it any wonder the Kavanaugh nomination is worth a bitter battle? The Supreme Court should not be political. It is the anti-democratic branch of government. Its constitutional obligation is not to do the people's will but to preserve personal liberty from the tyranny of the majority."

Exposing The Fallacy Of Synchronized Growth -Zero Hedge
"We have been hearing from international bodies, from central banks that we were living in a synchronized growth territory....Well, it wasn't the case. The case actually was that what we were being told was synchronized growth was actually synchronized debt growth. And that massive increase in debt that led to the highest level relative to GDP in history last year was creating massive problems, internal problems, in many economies that were getting used to cheap and easy money. A very small, minuscule and completely moderate reduction in the balance sheet of the Federal Reserve of less than $260 billion, has created this reckoning....So what happens is that we will likely see solutions that, instead of cleaning the system, will be solutions that will basically lead to more secular stagnation....Governments always see the problems of economies as a problem of demand, making a wrong diagnosis. Then they incentivize malinvestment and excess debt expecting that the collateral damage of higher debt will end up in a little bit more growth....The longer-term trend is that rising debt, more demand-side policies, and constantly subsidizing and bailing out the lower productivity sectors in order to avoid pain, generates lower growth, low productivity, and obviously, higher debt. Secular stagnation."

Who Will Trust America After This? -Bonner/Bonner And Partners
"The big winner from the new North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA) deal, now called the U.S.-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA), is the Swamp. Here's Jeffrey J. Schott of the Peterson Institute for International Economics with the details: '[The deal] adds layer upon layer of costly new regulations that producers must follow to qualify for NAFTA’s low tariffs - layers virtually certain to drive up costs of autos for consumers and very likely reduce U.S. jobs in the auto sector. Very simply, the pact is intentionally designed to mismanage the auto sector, an important driver of production and high-wage manufacturing employment in all three countries.' The best trade deal is no trade deal at all. Get the feds out of the way; let people make whatever deals they want....Canada and the U.S. could trade as freely as New York and Alabama. But that would cut out the swamp critters. They make their money by interfering in free trade, not by facilitating it. And now, with the new NAFTA, dripping with greasy swamp water, they have a lot more room to maneuver. Free trade, meanwhile, takes place on dry land. It needs no lobbyists or insiders....Who would want to do business with a bully?....We don’t know. But it must be the question the Chinese are asking....But now, China’s credit bubble - which is even bigger than America's and is pumped up on even more absurd fantasies - is ready to pop at any moment. America's stock market bubble - with prices even higher, relative to GDP, than in 1929 or 2007 - is set to burst. The whole crackpot media bubble that keeps people focused on trivia and trash is ready to blow up, too."

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Gold last traded at $1,201 an ounce. Silver at $14.59 an ounce.

NEWS SUMMARY: Precious metal prices rose Thursday on bargain-hunting and a weaker dollar. U.S. stocks fell sharply as interest rates hit the highest level since 2011, dampening investor sentiment.

Fed's Powell sees 'remarkably positive outlook' for economy that may be 'too good to be true' -CNBC
"Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell sees the U.S. economy generating highly optimistic expectations, with the unusual combination of low unemployment and inflation fueling hopes for an extended expansion. Powell pointed out that after last week's Federal Open Market Committee meeting, a reporter asked him if the current conditions are 'too good to be true,' which he called 'a reasonable question.' 'From the standpoint of our dual mandate, this is a remarkably positive outlook,' he said, referencing forecasts from Fed officials, the Survey of Professional Forecasters and the Congressional Budget Office. 'Since 1950, the U.S. economy has experienced periods of low, stable inflation and periods of very low unemployment, but never both for such an extended time as is seen in these forecasts,' Powell added."

Bad Financial Moon Rising -Project-Syndicate
"A decade after the collapse of Lehman Brothers, global debt levels are higher than in 2008, lending has moved into the opaque realm of asset management and private equity, and the dollar is surging. Given the proliferating risks, another financial crisis and downturn could be in store. Economic forecasts today appear to be nothing more than hopeful extrapolations of recent growth. In reality, all is not well beneath the surface. Should another financial crisis materialize, the subsequent recession might be even costlier than the last one, not least because policymakers will face unprecedented economic and political constraints in responding to it. Perhaps most important, ultra-easy monetary policies have encouraged precisely the risky financial behavior that regulations were supposed to limit....In addition to ballooning global debt levels, sky-high property prices seem to be heading for a turn, and 'risk-free' long-term rates remain unusually low in many countries....All of these risks are raising the likelihood of a mass 'hunkering down' in the face of future shocks. Worse, should the global economy experience another significant downturn, policymakers will find it much harder to respond than they did before. Initially low policy rates mean that central banks will have very little room for traditional monetary easing."

Republicans predict House majority will be swept away by Democratic 'spending tsunami' -Washington Examiner
"Five weeks before critical midterm elections, House Republicans are outgunned and outmanned as a constellation of well-resourced Democratic groups dedicated to winning the majority overwhelm GOP defenses. From financially flush super PACs flooding the zone with advertising to grassroots organizations directing money and volunteers to targeted races, around a dozen political groups are fueling the Democratic Party's campaign to flip 23 seats and capture the House on Nov. 6. In a toxic environment driven by discontent with President Donald Trump, the barrage has become too much to handle for the two groups manning the barricades for House Republicans: the National Republican Congressional Committee, their official campaign arm, and the Congressional Leadership Fund, their designated super PAC. 'Our guys are taking a beating,' Rob Simms, a Republican consultant and former NRCC executive director, said Tuesday in an interview with the Washington Examiner....There's also Swing Left, a group that harnesses liberal opposition to Trump by funneling grass-roots volunteers to Democratic campaigns; Giffords PAC, a pro-gun control super PAC run by Democratic former Arizona congresswoman Gabrielle Giffords; and Independence USA, a super PAC financed by former New York Mayor Michael Bloomberg that is pouring millions into expensive media markets, like Los Angeles, where Republican incumbents are in trouble."

What will happen if the GOP loses control of Congress? Could it tip the economy and financial markets into a free fall? Find out now in our report, How The Midterm Elections Will Affect Your Bottom Line. Get it today by calling 800-289-2646 or registering HERE.

NKorea said to have stolen a fortune in online bank heists -WHIO
"North Korea's nuclear and missile tests have stopped, but its hacking operations to gather intelligence and raise funds for the sanction-strapped government in Pyongyang may be gathering steam. U.S. security firm FireEye raised the alarm Wednesday over a North Korean group that it says has stolen hundreds of millions of dollars by infiltrating the computer systems of banks around the world since 2014 through highly sophisticated and destructive attacks that have spanned at least 11 countries. It says the group is still operating and poses 'an active global threat.' It is part of a wider pattern of malicious state-backed cyber activity that has led the Trump administration to identify North Korea - along with Russia, Iran and China - as one of the main online threats facing the United States. Last month, the Justice Department charged a North Korean hacker said to have conspired in devastating cyberattacks, including an $81 million heist of Bangladesh's central bank and the WannaCry virus that crippled parts of Britain's National Health Service. On Tuesday, the U.S. Department of Homeland Security warned of the use of malware by Hidden Cobra, the U.S. government's byword for North Korea hackers, in fraudulent ATM cash withdrawals from banks in Asia and Africa. It said that Hidden Cobra was behind the theft of tens of millions of dollars from teller machines in the past two years. In one incident this year, cash had been simultaneously withdrawn from ATMs in 23 different countries, it said."

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Gold last traded at $1,202 an ounce. Silver at $14.67 an ounce.

NEWS SUMMARY: Precious metals prices eased back Wednesday on profit-taking and a firmer dollar. U.S. stocks rose as bank shares jumped on rising interest rates following the release of strong U.S. jobs data.

It Took Only 10 Minutes to Send Gold and Silver Prices Soaring -Bloomberg
"Italy’s budget turmoil is giving gold and silver an added haven-demand boost at a time when fund managers are rebalancing their asset mix. Volume for the precious metals spiked on the second trading day of October, jolting prices that had been trading little changed just minutes earlier. The activity 'suggests that an investor is making a significant allocation in gold at the beginning of the month,' Tai Wong, the head of base and precious metals trading at BMO Capital Markets, said. In the 10 minutes ended 8:50 a.m. in New York, December gold contracts equal to almost 1.57 million ounces traded on Comex - almost 12 times the 100-day average volume for that time of day. In the case of silver futures, contracts representing more than 36 million ounces traded by 9:30 a.m., erasing earlier losses. 'This is a gold move and silver is catching up,' Wong said in telephone interview from New York. Money managers are giving precious metals a second look as the European Commission warned of a Greek-style crisis in Italy after Finance Minister Giovanni Tria's effort to promote his government's new fiscal strategy ended in failure on Monday. That's given gold and silver a boost, Wong said."

Mortgage fraud is getting worse as more people lie about their income to qualify for loans -CNBC
"Home values are high, the housing market is competitive, and more buyers want to get in. As a result, an increasing number of buyers are lying and cheating. Mortgage fraud risk jumped more than 12 percent year over year at the end of the second quarter, according to CoreLogic, which measures six fraud indicators: identity, income, occupancy, property, transaction and undisclosed real estate debt....'Because home prices are rising, and demand is strong, most mortgage fraud in this type of market is motivated by bona fide borrowers trying to qualify for a mortgage,' said Bridget Berg, principal of fraud solutions strategy for CoreLogic. 'Undisclosed real estate liabilities, credit repair, questionable down payment sources and income falsification are the most likely misrepresentations.'"

Famed Harvard economist Martin Feldstein warns of looming recession -Fox Business
"The U.S. economy may be in such 'fantastic shape' that even Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell has struck a note of optimism, but according to famed Harvard economist Martin Feldstein, a decline in equity prices could push the economy into another recession....'If interest rates, long rates, get up to 5 percent for Treasurys and more for corporates, then I think we could see a sharp reversal in equity prices, and that could hurt consumer spending and push us into a recession,' he said on Wednesday during an interview with FOX Business’ Stuart Varney. If a recession does hit, Feldstein said, it would be unlike the 2008 Great Recession, which was in part so damaging because of the fragility of the banks and other financial institutions. 'But,' he said, 'if the economy turns down, the Fed is in no position to offset it when the federal funds rate is as low as 3 percent.'"

Why Americans Are Retiring Later -Bloomberg
"Something significant is happening in Social Security: People are retiring and taking their benefits later. These trends are at least in part the consequence of policy changes made in the early 1980s that were purposefully delayed in their implementation....According to data from the Current Population Survey tabulated by Courtney Coile of Wellesley College, 38 percent of those aged 62 to 64 were working in 1990. By 2017, that share had risen to 53 percent. Why are people delaying retirement and claiming their Social Security benefits later? One explanation is increased life expectancy and improved health....The ongoing retirement age changes have attracted very little recent public attention, even though the first tranche of the rise, to age 66, is already over, and we are almost halfway through the transition to 67, which will be complete by 2022....The rise in the full retirement age has two types of effects on when people decide to claim their benefits. The first is that it reduces the monthly benefit received at any given age....The second, and more important, effect is that the full retirement age creates a social norm influencing when people retire and also take their benefit."

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Gold last traded at $1,207 an ounce. Silver at $14.69 an ounce.

NEWS SUMMARY: Precious metal prices rebounded Tuesday on bargain-hunting despite a firmer dollar. U.S. stocks rose, as the DJIA hit a record high, boosted by gains in Intel and optimism around global trade.

Bitcoin and other cryptos won’t dent gold’s shine, says Morningstar analyst -Marketwatch
"Cryptocurrencies are a staple of most financial markets dinner conversations. The market value for the more than 2,000 individual coins is around $220 billion, well off its all-time high of $828 billion, but still 48% greater than this time last year. Yet, as much as the libertarian-leaning evangelists like to tag digital currencies as the new gold, there is no risk that virtual currencies that operate on a distributed ledger will knock the precious metal off its perch, according to Morningstar analyst, Kristoffer Inton. 'In order to assess the threat, we've created a framework to grade any asset class's viability as a safe haven by focusing on liquidity, functional purpose, scarcity of supply, future demand certainty, and permanence. Through this framework, we conclude that cryptocurrency does not and will not challenge gold as a safe-haven asset class,' he continued. A functional purpose remains an Achilles' heel for digital currencies, and especially bitcoin, the world's largest digital currency, As a payment option, bitcoin is light years behind traditional transaction services like credit cards."

This bull market run has echoes of the late 1920s -Shiller/CNBC
"The longest bull market in history could be showing worrying echoes of one of the greatest crashes Wall Street has ever seen. Robert Shiller, professor of economics at Yale University and a Nobel laureate, says the steep run-up in this market rally is similar to the excesses of the 1920s before the October 1929 market crash and Great Depression. 'The 1920s is quite a legend that people are often thinking about,' Shiller said Friday on CNBC's 'Trading Nation.' 'I look at 1929 particularly as the end of the roaring '20s and it ended in a bout of speculation. Between May and September of '29 the stock market went up over 30 percent in just a few months.'....'At that time it seemed like it was a kind of gambling. The word gambling was used a lot to describe the market at that time so it became vulnerable. We're not exactly in that circumstance but we do have the market that has surged since 2009 so there is something of that spirit today,' he said."

Amazon to Raise Its Minimum U.S. Wage to $15 an Hour -Wall Street Journal
"Amazon.com Inc.on Tuesday said it was raising the minimum wage it pays all U.S. workers to $15 an hour, a move that comes as the company faced increased criticism about pay and benefits for its warehouse workers. The new minimum wage will kick in Nov. 1, covering more than 250,000 current employees and 100,000 seasonal holiday employees. The company said it also will start lobbying Congress for an increase in the federal minimum wage, which was set nearly a decade ago and is currently $7.25 an hour. 'We listened to our critics, thought hard about what we wanted to do, and decided we want to lead,' said Jeff Bezos, Amazon's chief executive, in a statement...The new salary increase will cover part-time and temporary workers hired by agencies, Amazon said. Several large retailers have raised their minimum wages in the tight labor market. Walmart Inc., which employs 1.5 million people in the U.S., in January said it would raise starting hourly pay to $11 for all U.S. employees. That followed a similar move by Target Corp. , which raised its starting hourly pay from $11 last year to $12 in September and set plans to lift it to $15 by 2020."

The world's greatest investors are sounding the alarm -Black/Sovereign Man
"Howard Marks is the founder of the credit investment firm Oaktree Capital Management. And he’s been sharing his insights with the public in his Chairman memos since 1990. Even Warren Buffett stops what he's doing when Marks releases a new memo… Buffett says it’s 'the first thing I open and read.' Marks’ latest memo, titled The Seven Worst Words in the World, came out last week. And those seven words are - 'too much money chasing too few deals.' As you probably guessed, Marks is talking about how overheated the market is today and the end of the economic cycle....As our friend Jim Grant mentioned in our podcast, today we have boom era stock prices coupled with depression era interest rates - two things that are completely incongruent with one another....But it's not just Marks that is urging caution today. Ray Dalio, founder of Bridgewater, the world's largest hedge fund, says we’ll see a recession by 2020....The point is, it's time to be cautious. And it's time to start preparing for the inevitable downturn, whenever it hits."

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Gold last traded at $1,191 an ounce. Silver at $14.50 an ounce.

NEWS SUMMARY: Precious metal prices eased Monday on profit-taking and a firmer dollar. U.S. stocks rallied as investors cheered news of Canada joining a trade deal with the United States and Mexico.

U.S. and Canada Reach Nafta Deal -Wall Street Journal
"The U.S. and Canada reached a dramatic, last-minute deal late Sunday night on revising the North American Free Trade Agreement, lifting a cloud of uncertainty over the quarter-century-old continental commercial bloc. The pending agreement will allow Canada to join an accord reached in late August between the U.S. and Mexico and diminishes the prospects for President Trump to follow through on his threats either to kill Nafta outright or to break the trilateral pact into separate pieces. The accord restores - for now, at least - harmony with two neighbors that Mr. Trump has repeatedly criticized in public, paving the way for him to hold a late-November signing ceremony with Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau and Mexican President Enrique Peña Nieto....Early Monday, Mr. Trump tweeted: 'It is a great deal for all three countries, solves the many deficiencies and mistakes in NAFTA, greatly opens markets to our Farmers and Manufacturers, [reduces] Trade Barriers to the U.S. and will bring all three Great Nations closer together in competition with the rest of the world.'"

Kavanaugh Is The Tipping Point For Decline & Fall Of America -Armstrong/Zero Hedge
"Kavanaugh’s hearing exposed the serious fact that the US Congress has become too polarized to even govern. What has been done to Kavanaugh is a serious disgrace for if the allegations of Ford are true, then she is at fault for not bringing charges back then and claiming it has defined her life. NOBODY should be allowed to bring any allegations against anyone decades after with no proof....The Kavanaugh vote was strictly down the party line and that demonstrates the problem. The hatred and degree to which a person is attacked goes beyond that person but seriously harms his entire family. This is now becoming a serious deterrent to anyone in the future looking at taking such a post. Will they find someone in your past you just hates you for some reason who now thinks it is pay-back time?....There is no doubt that historians will look back on the hearing as a turning point in this country when the Decline and Fall of the United States was at least exposed and some will make this event as the tipping point."

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BIS warns global economy risks crisis 'relapse' -France24
"The Bank of International Settlements said Sunday the global economy risked a 'relapse' of the crisis that rocked it a decade ago, warning there was little 'medicine' left to treat the patient a second time. 'Things look rather fragile,' BIS chief economist Claudio Borio told reporters in a conference call. 'There is little left in the medicine chest to nurse the patient back to health or care for him in case of a relapse,' he warned. Borio pointed out that central banks around the world had for years been administering 'powerful medicine' to counter the effects of the crisis, with 'unusually and persistently low interest rates.' This, he said, had helped boost economic activity, 'but some side effects were inevitable.' He pointed for instance to the crises that have recently erupted in Argentina and Turkey, describing them as 'withdrawal symptoms' as the central banks start cutting back the dosage....'Will the patient continue to mend, as looked likely until the first quarter of this year, or will there be a relapse?' he asked."

U.S. housing market faces '5-percent' test -Reuters
"The U.S. housing market, already struggling with tight inventory and rising building costs, faces a fresh headwind as 30-year mortgage rates rise close to the 5 percent threshold for the first time in years. Mortgage rates have surged to 4.97 percent from 4.23 percent in January, according to the Mortgage Bankers Association. Including fees, most 30-year mortgage costs have reached 5 percent or higher....'Higher interest rates is a headwind for housing, but it’s not a major obstacle right now,' said Ward McCarthy, chief economist at Jefferies & Co. in New York. Some economists believe home loan costs have to increase much higher to cause a slump in housing activity."

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