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September Blog Archives 2016

September Blog Archives


9.30.16 - Secret Gold Vaults: The New Bank Accounts

Gold last traded at $1,317 an ounce. Silver at $19.21 an ounce.

NEWS SUMMARY: Precious metal prices traded mixed Friday amid ongoing bank instability. Gold ended the third quarter flat after rising 25% over the first and second quarter. U.S. stocks rallied on rumors that Deutsche bank may be near a settlement with the U.S. Department of Justice.

Gold Is "Money" Because It Is Plentiful, Not Because It Is Scarce -Forbes
"Gold, and its brother silver, have always been the basis of money, back to the beginnings of 'money,' in the late fourth millennium B.C. Already by 2000 B.C., gold and silver had been 'money' for over a thousand years – the entire history of 'civilization' on this planet. Gold was still the basis of money in the 1960s, in an unbroken line stretching back to the beginnings of history....Gold is 'scarce' in the sense that it is hard to find, and available in very low concentrations, which means that you have to process a large amount of rock to get it. The resulting high production cost is the ultimate reason for gold’s high value. However, in terms of availability, it is very plentiful. We actually have twice as much aboveground gold today as when the world left the gold standard in 1971. We have seven times more than in 1910, the era of the 'Classical Gold Standard.' We have about fifty times a year’s mine production."

gold chart

In Gold We Trust 2016 -Incrementum
"Gold is back! With the strongest quarterly performance in 30 years, the precious metal in Q1 2016 emerged from the bear market that had been in force since 2013. A decisive factor in this comeback is growing uncertainty over the recovery of the post-Lehman economy. After years of administering high doses of monetary painkillers, will the Fed succeed in discontinuing the practice? Or is the entire therapy about to be fundamentally challenged?....After years of pursuing low interest rate policies, central banks have maneuvered themselves into a lose-lose situation: Both continuing and ending the low interest rate regime harbors considerable risks....The US economic expansion appears to have run its course already. Should the rate hike cycle that has been initiated fail, a significant loss of confidence in the central bank’s policies and with it the USD appears likely. This would go hand in hand with rising commodity prices and a return of inflation and would represent a 'perfect storm' for gold." 50 Slides for the Gold Bulls – Incrementum Chartbook

Secret Alpine Gold Vaults Are the New Swiss Bank Accounts -Bloomberg
"Deep in the Swiss Alps, next to an old airstrip suitable for landing Gulfstream and Falcon jets, is a vast bunker that holds what may be one of the world’s largest stashes of gold. The entrance, protected by a guard in a bulletproof vest, is a small metal door set into a granite mountain face at the end of a narrow country lane. Behind two farther doors sits a 3.5-ton metal portal that opens only after a code is entered and an iris scan and a facial-recognition screen are performed. A maze of tunnels once used by Swiss armed forces lies within. The owner of this gold vault wants to remain anonymous for fear of compromising security, and he worries that even disclosing the name of his company might lead thieves his way....Demand for gold storage has risen since the 2008 financial crisis. Many of the wealthy see owning gold as a hedge against the insecurity of banks and a reasonable investment at a time when markets are volatile and bank accounts and low-risk bonds pay almost no yield."

Currency Wars: Who Wins, Who Loses & What To Buy -Hedge Eye
"Last day of the quarter is a good one to reiterate that one of our Top 3 Macro Themes for Q3 and beyond remains #EuropeImploding – a protracted recession in the South of Europe looks like a high probability outcome; it should manifest in reported GDP throughout 2017 – Draghi and European Banks will have to react in kind. Since it’s going to be one of the big winners of the Currency War (devalued currencies and the credibility of central bankers lose), Gold will end the month and quarter on a strong note, +0.5% = +25.1% year-to-date with an immediate-term risk range of $1311-1352/oz."

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9.29.16 - Imprison the Big Bad Bankers Gold last traded at $1,326 an ounce. Silver at $19.18 an ounce.

NEWS SUMMARY: Precious metal prices traded mixed Thursday with gold prices lifted by renewed banking fears. U.S. stocks traded sharply lower as banking stocks fell sharply, led by Deutsche Bank's 6.5% sell-off.

Why is Deutsche Bank now the biggest worry in the financial world? -Telegraph
"After several years of fretting about Spanish, Italian and French banks as the eurozone economy staggered onwards, the financial markets became nervous about the health of the German powerhouse Deutsche Bank and its smaller competitors at the start of this year....Deutsche posted its first full-year loss since 2008 in January due to a variety of problems including a €5.2bn provision for fines and lawsuits, sending its shares careering lower and pushing its new bonds into a tailspin....Shares in Deutsche have lost more than half their value so far this year. The IMF hasn't helped matters, saying in June that the bank is the greatest contributor to systemic risk in the world's biggest lenders....Is this another Lehman Brothers?"

The symbol of bank security used to be the safe. Today it should be the "unsafe" as your bank deposits are now in danger in at least 20 major ways – from cybercriminals, money-hungry politicians, Too-Big-To-Fail bankers, and those now stealing your dollars’ value – including the dollars you thought were secure inside bank vaults. For details, request a FREE Executive Summary of DON'T BANK ON IT!

villains Want to Fix Finance? Imprison the Big Bad Bankers -The Daily Beast
"The bipartisan shellacking Senators gave John Stumpf, the Wells Fargo CEO, last week made for great television, but did nothing about the real scandal: Our government continues to look the other way as many top bankers thumb their noses at fraud laws. There is a term for the criminality that infects our biggest banks and damages the economy, and there is a solution to this problem. But there is also an obstacle. The term is 'control fraud.' That’s when executives use their control of a corporation to run frauds because they make much more money that way....The solution is to apply the lessons from the savings-and-loan scandals of a quarter century ago when Black’s insights and diligence resulted in the convictions of more than 1,000 senior bankers, more than 800 of whom went to prison, including Charles Keating and David Paul whose crimes cost taxpayers more than $5 billion....Wells Fargo illustrates what I have long written about: a major breakdown of ethics at the top of American society, especially in accounting and law."

When ethics breakdown in accounting and law, big money is usually behind it. A new book, Money, Morality & The Machine, reveals how bad money has gradually driven good morals and ethics out of society over the last century. This panoramic book helps readers understand why bad bankers virtually never end up behind bars. (Request a Free Book Preview here)

Fed challenged over governor’s Clinton ties -Financial Times
"Janet Yellen was forced to fend off new questions about the Federal Reserve’s political independence on Tuesday as a Republican lawmaker asked her if one of the central bank’s governors was too close to Hillary Clinton’s campaign. The Fed chair was challenged by Scott Garrett, a Republican from New Jersey, over donations that Fed governor Lael Brainard has made to the Clinton campaign and over unconfirmed media reports that Ms Brainard is a contender for a senior job in a potential Clinton administration. The exchanges came only two days after Donald Trump, the Republican presidential candidate, claimed in his debate with Mrs Clinton that the Fed has been keeping short-term interest rates low to help the Obama administration and was sustaining a 'big, fat, ugly bubble' in the stock market."

US prepares to cede key role for internet -Yahoo
"The US government is set to cut the final thread of its oversight of the internet, yielding a largely symbolic but nevertheless significant role over the online address system. Barring any last-minute glitches, the transition will occur at midnight Friday (0400 GMT Saturday), when the US contract expires for the Internet Corporation for Assigned Names and Numbers, which manages the internet's so-called 'root zone.' When the agreement with the US Commerce Department runs out, ICANN will become a self-regulating non-profit international entity managing the Internet Assigned Numbers Authority, the system for online 'domains' such as .com. US and ICANN officials say the change is part of a longstanding plan to 'privatize' those functions, but some critics complain about a 'giveaway' that could threaten the internet's integrity."

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9.28.16 - Fed-Led Economic Hell

Gold last traded at $1,323 an ounce. Silver at $19.12 an ounce.

NEWS SUMMARY: Precious metal prices traded slightly lower Wednesday on a firmer dollar amid Fed uncertainty. U.S. stocks zig-zagged higher after Fed Chair Yellen's testimony did little to inspire investor confidence.

Why even half the middle class is living paycheck to paycheck -New York Post
"It’s an election year so buzzwords like 'income inequality,' 'the working poor' and 'American dream' are ubiquitous. But there’s one thing politicians aren’t brave enough to say to the American people: Stop spending your way to the poor house....Economists continually point to credit-card debt as the culprit for America’s empty bank accounts. But credit-card debt doesn’t just materialize out of nowhere....And what these explanations miss is that we’re addicted to spending. To those wracked by economic anxiety, politicians keep offering income redistribution. But we’re living beyond our means at virtually any income level. Far more beneficial than spreading the wealth would be teaching financial literacy as early as high school, so young adults can hang on to that wealth."

Financial literacy in the U.S. has been in decline for over a century, as authors Craig Smith and Lowell Ponte point out in their upcoming book, Money, Morality & The Machine. It is no accident that public schools have not taught the obvious connection between bad money, declining morals and degenerating government. This book is a great primer for all ages to clearly understand this connection. (Request a Free Book Preview here)

financial services The Fed Is Leading Us to Economic Hell -Mauldin/Forbes
"The Fed argues that low rates have worked. The economy emerged from recession. Unemployment drifted back down. 'Yay for us,' said the Fed. Don’t buy that statistical economic garbage. The economy recovered in spite of Fed policy, not because of it. The economy recovered because business owners, entrepreneurs, and workers rolled up their sleeves and made things happen. It involved a lot of pain: layoffs, asset sales, lost customers, and more. But the hard-working citizens of this country slowly and painfully pulled themselves out of the nosedive. Those are the people who deserve the credit, not the Fed. Keeping rates at artificially low levels did nothing other than push our economy into the mother of all corners. Look where we are now. The US economy is going to suffer another recession in the not-too-distant future. So, for lack of anything else to do, the Fed is preparing to send rates below zero when the economy next needs goosing....We’ll get quantitative easing on a scale that is currently unimaginable."

The economy is edging closer to a 'black hole' -CNBC
"Like a massive star exploding into a supernova, debt is rising at a blistering pace. There is currently more than $230 trillion in global debt - that's three times the amount of debt the world held during the credit crisis. Central bank intervention has fueled this explosion in debt, including historic levels of quantitative easing, zero interest rate policies and the adoption of negative rates....This environment has many investors worried that we're creeping closer to the event horizon: the edge of the black hole from which there's no escape....One way to protect a portfolio when you don't know what rule will be distorted next is to maximize the diversification in your portfolio."

Peak Gold Coming as Exploration Dwindles, Randgold CEO Says -Bloomberg
"Peak gold production may be reached within the next three years as miners fail to replace their reserves, according to Randgold Resources Ltd. Chief Executive Officer Mark Bristow. The lack of new discoveries, cost cutting and miners digging out higher-grade material for a short-term gain, which can subsequently shorten the lifespan of a mine, are to blame for a supply crunch in the industry, Bristow told reporters in Johannesburg on Monday....'The big debate is: When is peak gold? Is it 2019 as this graph shows?,' Bristow said while pointing to data compiled by BMO Capital Markets. 'This is the waterfall I’ve been talking about at this meeting for some time. It’s now come into focus.'"

Gold serves as universal money worldwide because of its scarcity. All of the gold ever mined will fit inside an Olympic-sized swimming pool. What will 'peak gold' mining mean for prices? As gold becomes more difficult and expensive to mine, basic supply/demand laws will lift prices upward. Our 2016 Gold Report - World Edition explains this and dozens of reasons for the upward trajectory of gold prices in the years to come.

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9.27.16 - The Debate: A Political Gong Show

Gold last traded at $1,327 an ounce. Silver at $19.17 an ounce.

NEWS SUMMARY: Precious metal prices eased back on Tuesday amid a stronger dollar and an uptick in consumer confidence. U.S. stocks advanced - despite a sharp fall in oil prices - following the first presidential debate.

After First Debate, 'Nobody Knows Anything' -PJ Media
"In his Adventures in the Screen Trade, screenwriter William Goldman famously wrote of Hollywood that 'Nobody knows anything.'....But applied to politics, his words are one hundred percent correct. Nobody does know anything. Nevertheless, as in Hollywood, a lot of people are paid big bucks to pretend they do....Who won? Beats me. Does it matter? Also beats me....Both candidates basically got what they wanted. Hillary didn't have a coughing fit or fall over. Donald seemed plausibly presidential. He didn't assault Clinton or bite her head off (not that she didn't deserve it)....So did Trump win? Possibly. He seems not to have lost anyway, which was all he needed." mudsling

3 Things We're In Complete Agreement With Donald Trump On - Hedgeye
"Last night's debate pitted Donald Trump's ugly outlook against Hillary Clinton's rosy future. And regardless of your politics, Trump's tirade about the stock market, interest rates and the Fed stuck out. A few things Trump & Hedgeye agree on: 'We are in a big fat ugly bubble' ... 'The Fed is doing political things' ... 'If you raise interest rates even a little bit [the stock market] is going to come crashing down'. The comments above came after a rehearsed Clinton soundbite attempted to excoriate what she calls 'Trumped-up Trickle Down.'....Hyperbole aside, Trump makes some important points. Namely... the U.S. economy continues to slow and the Fed is propping up equity markets under the guise of 'data dependence.' So Trump is on to something, but the political gong show continues."

Fed on ropes as Yellen seeks to fend off Trump blows -Financial Times
"After a fusillade of excoriating and in many ways unprecedented attacks on the Federal Reserve by the Republican presidential candidate, Janet Yellen, the US central bank’s chair, finally hit back. Ms Yellen last Wednesday dismissed as emphatically wrong Donald Trump’s claims that she and her institution were keeping short-term interest rates low at the behest of the Obama administration. 'Partisan politics play no role in our decisions,' she declared. Mr Trump is throwing punches at a time when the US central bank is under assault from both sides of the partisan divide, and at a time when polling suggests public confidence in its leadership has declined during a subpar economic recovery."

The Fed is indeed on the ropes after years of bad policy decisions resulting in the loss of public trust and confidence - the only legs on which bankers stand. We predicted this Fed policy would not end well in our FREE 2014 report, The Biggest Bank Heist in History.

Public Pensions In Crisis -Investors
"Insolvency: America's states, counties, cities and municipalities are in deep trouble, owing literally trillions in public employee pensions that they can't pay off. Nowhere is that more apparent than in California, the nation's poster boy for fiscal irresponsibility....But while California remains the Big Enchilada of public pension irresponsibility and, we would argue, fiscal fraud, it's not alone. All across America, bold pension promises were made, premised on outsize returns in the stock market. When those returns didn't occur and as spending on pensions soared, many pension funds became insolvent. Today, state and local pensions are nearly $2 trillion in the red, an amount that's expected to grow in coming years."

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9.26.16 - Who Will “The Machine” Elect This November?

Gold last traded at $1,330 an ounce. Silver at $19.53 an ounce.

NEWS SUMMARY: Precious metal prices traded mixed Monday on a weaker dollar ahead of the first 2016 presidential debate tonight. U.S. stocks fell as Wall Street awakened to the possibility of a Trump presidency.

Clinton and Trump square off in highly anticipated debate -Reuters
"Democrat Hillary Clinton and Republican Donald Trump will face off for the first time on Monday in a presidential debate that could rank as one of the most watched and highly anticipated political showdowns in U.S. history. The tight race for the White House and the unpredictable clash in styles between well-known but polarizing foes has generated wide interest in the potentially pivotal encounter, which comes six weeks before the Nov. 8 election....The 90-minute debate will begin at 9 p.m. (0100 GMT on Tuesday) at Hofstra University on New York's Long Island. It is the first of three planned presidential debates."

PBmmm Who Will “The Machine” Elect This November? -Independent Living
"A growing number of U.S. citizens feel something has gone terribly wrong with our political and economic system. While the masses cling to a misplaced hope in big political changes this November, more informed citizens understand there are powerful forces behind the scenes still driving for more control over our lives - regardless of who is elected president. This unseen hand is sometimes referred to as 'The Machine.' According to MONEY, MORALITY & THE MACHINE, a new book by economist Craig R. Smith and futurist Lowell Ponte, this powerful Financial-Military-Industrial 'Machine' transcends all political parties and first took root in America over a century ago, but launched into warp speed after WWII. As a result; America is becoming the kind of high-tax, low-liberty, Big Government land our ancestors fled. Welfare policies intended to produce security are now making us frighteningly insecure." WATCH Pat Boone Explain 'The Machine' - FREE REPORT

Hillary ‘The Machine’ is programmed to take down The Donald -Washington Times
"Not since Garry Kasparov faced off against Deep Blue has a contest between man and machine been so hotly anticipated....Proving it is not beholden to billionaires, The Clinton Machine will have billionaire Mark Cuban sitting on the front row to cheer on The Machine....This latest version of The Clinton Machine, known among her creators as C2016, has been in the works for - literally - decades. Engineers have done extensive analysis and tinkering to work out the kinks of C2000 and especially C2008. This one is, they promise, the best and most evolved machine yet....The Machine said it wanted to take a hammer to 'the glass ceiling.' But The Machine's foot soldiers had another idea for that hammer."

26 Incredible Facts About The Economy That Every American Should Know Before The Trump-Clinton Debate -Zero Hedge
"Are you ready for the most anticipated presidential debate in decades?....There will likely be quite a few questions about the economy, and without a doubt this is an area where Trump and Clinton have some very sharp differences. The mainstream media would have us believe that the U.S. economy is in pretty good shape, and if that was true that would seem to favor Clinton. But is it actually true? The following are 26 incredible facts about the economy that every American should know for the Trump-Clinton debate...#1. When Barack Obama entered the White House, the U.S. government was 10.6 trillion dollars in debt. Today, the U.S. government is 19.5 trillion dollars in debt....The next president is going to inherit the biggest economic problems that this nation has ever faced, and it is going to take a miracle of Biblical proportions to turn the U.S. economy in the right direction."

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9.23.16 - VIDEO: Why Gold Is Up 26% Year-To-Date

Gold last traded at $1,337 an ounce. Silver at $19.69 an ounce.

NEWS SUMMARY: Precious metal prices were steady Friday despite a firmer dollar. U.S. stocks traded lower as oil prices fell sharply while investors digested key manufacturing

Why Fiat Money Manipulation Can Never Produce Prosperity -Forbes
"The study of economics is: the study of how people make a living. We make a living today with a fantastically complex network of specialization and trade – a network so complicated that nobody actually understands what is going on....As described in eloquent detail by George Gilder in The Scandal of Money (2016), this system of money and prices is the information network that allows millions and even billions of people to cooperate together productively, and even, over time, with increasing productivity....By distorting the money – changing its value – the information contained in prices, interest rates, or profit and loss become distorted....The only kind of 'rules-based' system with a centuries-long proven track record is a gold standard system."

HEgold Why Gold Is Up 26% Year-To-Date -HedgeEye (2-min. video)
"According to Gallop {sic} polls, there has been a 14-year slide in confidence that the 'Fed leader will do the right thing for the economy?' Shocker, we know... Fed head Janet Yellen did little to inspire confidence at yesterday's FOMC press conference with statements like this: 'Asset values aren't out of line with historical norms.' 'The Fed wants the expansion to last as long as possible.' 'There is little risk to falling behind the curve in the near future so the FOMC can be gradual in its rate hikes.' What Does the Fed's Confidence Crisis have to do with Gold? As Hedgeye CEO Keith McCullough points out in the video below, 'Gold loves the blowup of the central planning belief system.'"

Yahoo hack is one of the largest security breaches of the Internet age -Boston Globe
"Yahoo Inc. said Thursday that hackers backed by an unnamed foreign government had stolen personal information from more than 500 million of its users’ accounts, one of the largest security breaches of the Internet age. Meanwhile, a website with suspected ties to the government of Russia leaked stolen information about the travel itinerary of Vice President Joe Biden and First Lady Michelle Obama, including a scanned image of her passport. The Yahoo breach puts at risk passwords, e-mail address, and phone numbers for millions of users. Yahoo urged consumers to be wary of suspicious e-mails. The two episodes are the latest sign that the world’s best computer security engineers seem incapable of securing the nation’s critical computer networks against spies and criminals."

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9.22.16 - Fed Inaction Revives Gold Bulls

Gold last traded at $1,344 an ounce. Silver at $20.09 an ounce.

NEWS SUMMARY: Precious metal prices extended gains Thursday following a weaker dollar and inaction by the Fed. U.S. stocks staged a small relief rally on the Fed's postponed rate hike, despite downbeat housing data.

Fed’s Inaction Revives Gold Bulls, Propels Metals and Miners -Bloomberg
"The Federal Reserve’s inaction has again revived gold bulls, and industrial metals and miners are getting a ride as well. Gold rose to the highest in two weeks after policy makers kept U.S. interest rates unchanged for a sixth straight meeting and cut their outlook for rate increases next year. The dollar slipped for a third time this week, making metals cheaper for holders of other currencies. Low rates and efforts by central banks to bolster economic stimulus are driving demand for gold as a store of value. Bullion is headed for a third quarterly gain, the longest rally since 2011, when prices surged to a record."

By kicking the 'interest rate hike' can down the road, Yellen's Fed hopes to give the economy and markets a "little more room to run." Short-term market speculators cheered the decision, but with inflation pressures building, time will tell if this was a wise decision. The fact that investors are so worried over a measly .25% rate hike illustrates how fragile the economy and markets are presently. Now is the time to reinforce your portfolio with real money; gold. Our 2016 Gold Report - World Edition explains why gold's trajectory is upward, regardless of what the Fed does.

cliff Stocks are stuck in a holding pattern despite the Fed, Fidelity analyst says -CNBC
"Stocks may have rebounded after the Federal Reserve left interest rates unchanged, but investors shouldn't expect a significant rally until earnings growth returns, Fidelity Investment's director of global macro said Thursday....'If there's no earnings growth,' he told CNBC's 'Squawk Box'. 'There's only so much you can do in terms of a market rally no matter what the Fed does, and that's why we're kind of stuck in this holding pattern here.'....Whether the stock market can weather a rate hike comes down to earnings growth, Timmer said. Despite four straight quarters of earnings declines, equities have risen as investors pile into the market for equities and other risk assets to find returns that government debt is no longer producing."

UN fears third leg of the global financial crisis - with prospect of epic debt defaults - Telegraph
"The third leg of the world's intractable depression is yet to come. If trade economists at the United Nations are right, the next traumatic episode may entail the greatest debt jubilee in history. It may also prove to be the definitive crisis of globalized capitalism, the demise of the liberal free-market orthodoxies promoted for almost forty years by the Bretton Woods institutions, the OECD, and the Davos fraternity. 'Alarm bells have been ringing over the explosion of corporate debt levels in emerging economies, which now exceed $25 trillion. Damaging deflationary spirals cannot be ruled out,' said the annual report of the UN Conference on Trade and Development (UNCTAD)....The UN's advice to the emerging nations is to retake control of their destiny and turn the tables on the financial elites. They should impose capital controls, preferential tax treatment for retained earnings, and force fund managers to hold assets for longer. They should allocate credit without apology, and learn a trick or two from the Korea's methods of 'financial repression'."

Dennis Gartman: "We Are Entering The “Zimbabwe-isation” Of The Global Capital Markets" -Zero Hedge
"Share prices are sharply higher once again, as all ten of the markets comprising our International Index have risen over the course of the past twenty four hours with the markets in 'The Americas' leading the way higher with the S&P rising a bit more than 1%; with stocks in Canada rising 1.3% and with the market in Brazil willingly overcoming the political confusion there to rise 1.1%. That strength, rather obviously, follows the non-decision by the Federal Reserve Bank to avoid any thoughts of tighter monetary policies until December… if even then. That non-decision decision gives 'aid and comfort' to other central banks around the world to be as aggressive as they wish to be in order to sponsor economic growth, employment growth and inflation when and where they are able. We are, it seems to us, entering the period we shall call the 'Zimbabwe-isation' of the global capital markets and we say that with all sincerity… and requisite trepidation... recalling that the Zimbabwe stock market led the world to the upside several years ago as the central bank there lost all control of its money supply and created a massive, rampant inflation that sent the Zimbabwe dollar into oblivion but sent the Zimbabwe stock market soaring at the same time."

Mr. Gartman is not alone in his fear of rampant inflation causing paper currencies to evaporate virtually overnight; as has happened in Weimar, Germany, Argentina and Zimbabwe. It is better to be a year early than one day late to own gold as wealth insurance. Act now to discover The Timeless Truth About Gold & Silver.

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9.21.16 - The Fed's Unsolvable Credibility Problem

Gold last traded at $1,331 an ounce. Silver at $19.76 an ounce.

NEWS SUMMARY: Precious metal prices rose over 1% Wednesday after both the Fed and BOJ decided to stand pat on their near-zero interest rate policies. U.S. stocks cheered the Fed's do-nothing policy decision to remain "accommodative".

Gold Seen Entering a Long-Term Bull Cycle -Bloomberg
"Gold will likely soar to a record within five years as asset bubbles burst in everything from bonds to credit and equities, forcing investors to find a haven, according to Old Mutual Global Investors’ Diego Parrilla. The metal is at the start of a multi-year bull run with a 'few thousand dollars of upside' in a world of 'monetary policy without limits' where central banks print lots of money and low or negative interest rates prevail, said Parrilla....'If we’re able to normalize global monetary policy, and we can do that in a way that doesn’t result in the implosion of some of the bubbles we’ve been building, the appeal of gold as a safe haven might diminish,' Parrilla said. 'But I think it’s highly unlikely we will have a very smooth unwind of all these years of monetary excess.'"

Yellen cartoon Fed faces a credibility problem -CNNMoney
"Federal Reserve leaders are facing renewed criticism about their credibility. Often, a few top officials speak publicly in favor of increasing interest rates. Then days later, another one of them talks down a rate hike. These conflicting messages from the Fed's top leadership continue to hurt public confidence in the Fed, experts say. 'This is a disaster in terms of credibility,' says Dan North, chief U.S. economist at Euler Hermes....Stock markets can get rattled when leaders of the decision-making Federal Open Market Committee hint at raising rates, says Ed Yardeni, chief investment strategist at Yardeni Research. He called it the 'Federal Open Mouth Committee.'....The Fed 'needs to save face by hiking at least once this year,' says Christopher Veccio, a currency analyst at DailyFX, a research firm."

Putting faith in the Fed is like putting faith in bad money; both are destined for failure over time. The upcoming book, Money, Morality & The Machine, explores this nexus between bad money and bad values. According to the book preview, "The Federal Reserve, created in 1913, was supposed to protect the value of the U.S. Dollar, but this new central bank’s charter said the Fed was to 'furnish an elastic currency' that gave politicians vastly more money to spend. Thanks to the Federal Reserve and runaway government spending, the U.S. Dollar now has only about two pennies of the gold-backed 1913 dollar’s purchasing power. Authors Smith and Ponte calculate that more than a century of political manipulation of our money has cost Americans at least $220 Trillion, much of it expropriated through the invisible tax of inflation that debased our money, debased our social morals, and gave America the best government money can buy." (Request a Free Book Preview here)

Bank of Japan announces major policy overhaul in latest bid to goose economy -CNBC
"Japan's central bank kept rates steady at its meeting Wednesday, but issued a plethora of fresh changes to its policy approach, marking its latest attempt to boost prices and goose economic growth....It said it would buy 10-year Japan government bonds (JGBs) so that the yield would hover around zero percent while keeping a lid on short-term rates....Markets may read the statement as a 'whatever it takes' moment for expanding the monetary base until Japan begins to see some of the inflation it has long sought.... 'The conclusion to the comprehensive review is underwhelming,' Patrick Bennett, a foreign-exchange strategist at CIBC, said in a note on Wednesday. 'Today's actions can't manufacture inflation, and never could.'"

Central Banking's 5 Stages of Death -Market Slant
"Denial: Kuroda: BOJ isn’t reaching its limits for bond buys at all - did he really say 'at all'?....Bargaining: Kuroda announces CPI-ex food target of 2% within 2 yrs. Currently <2%. Replaced today target of >2% in the undefined future....Anger: Abe says he will keep on fighting to boost Japan's economy....Sadness: Probably on full display in the Abe and Kuroda households tonight....Acceptance?: Central Bank’s Policy Cupboard is Bare. BOJ announcement today was a tacit admission of their inability to do what they claim they can....Inflation is coming. The unsterilized, in your face kind. Because CBers cannot afford to have stagflation. If they are going to get the global economy moving and inflation is a consequence, then so be it. They have too much vested from their ivory towers to admit they are wrong."

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9.20.16 - Will the Fed Risk Shocking the Markets?

Gold last traded at $1,318 an ounce. Silver at $19.27 an ounce.

NEWS SUMMARY: Precious metal prices rose Tuesday despite a firmer dollar ahead of Wednesday's Fedspeak. U.S. stocks inched higher following disappointing housing data; while investors awaited monetary policy decisions from the Fed and the Bank of Japan.

Fed again poised to cut longer-run interest rate forecast -Reuters
"U.S. Federal Reserve policymakers are set this week to again cut their forecasts for how high interest rates will need to go in an economy where output, productivity and inflation are growing at a slower pace than in past decades. It would be the fourth time in 15 months that the U.S. central bank has been forced to admit its estimate of this so-called neutral rate was too optimistic, raising questions about the health of the economy in the coming years....The Fed is expected to leave its benchmark overnight interest rate unchanged following its two-day meeting on Wednesday, according to a Reuters poll of economists....The Fed has not raised rates this year despite signaling in December that four rate hikes were coming in 2016."

To better understand how and why the Federal Reserve has consistently made bad policy decisions about interest rates and quantitative easing, we suggest reading Money, Morality & The Machine, which is due for release in early October. (Get a Free Book Preview here)

Yellen What a Fed surprise would mean to markets -CNBC
"With the Federal Reserve meeting getting underway on Tuesday, one strategist warns that a surprise rate hike will cause a huge amount of turmoil, both in the U.S. and around the world. While Larry McDonald of ACG Analytics believes that it is unlikely that a September rate hike will occur, he predicts that a surprise hike would spur the U.S. dollar, which, in turn, would cause debt troubles worldwide. 'The reason why the Fed has been trapped all year is if they try to hike, you get a surge in the dollar,' he said Monday on CNBC's 'Trading Nation.' 'Because they kept interest rates so low for eight years, there's $8 or $9 trillion of commodity debt, of emerging markets debt and of oil debt that have been issued out that are dollar sensitive.'"

Gold steadies as investors bet against Fed hike -Reuters
Gold steadied on Tuesday ahead of a two-day U.S. Federal Reserve meeting that investors are betting will leave interest rates unchanged....'We are back in this pattern where the expectations about the next rate hike determine the short-term swings - when they are pushed backwards, gold rises and when they are pulled forward gold declines,' Julius Baer analyst Carsten Menke said. Japan's central bank also meets on Tuesday and Wednesday, and could make negative interest rates the primary focus of its monetary policy, moving away from quantitative easing."

Our 2016 Gold Report - World Edition explains the upward trajectory of gold prices in the months and years ahead, regardless of what the Fed does.

7 Reasons Market Risk 'Significantly Exceeds' Reward -HedgeEye
"Hedgeye Financials analyst Josh Steiner listed the many reasons why we think the 'risk-reward' of the U.S. stock market is tilted decidedly to the downside. Here's a brief recap from a recent edition of The Macro Show, 1. You’ve got small business loans and credit quality deteriorating, an enormous part of the economy. 2. You’ve got the rest of the lending complex beginning to tighten. 3. You’ve got the Fed in a position in which it's not able to do much about it. 4. You’ve got a broad swath of economic indicators getting worse. 5. You’ve got market valuation up on a rope. 6. You’ve got the duration of the labor cycle very extended. 7. And then there's this curious case of significant decline in maternity rates taking hold across America. As Steiner summarized: 'To me, it all paints a very fascinating picture of risk versus reward in the marketplace right now, where I think it's pretty plain that risk significantly exceeds what’s being priced into stocks and it's not that uncommon an occurrence.'"

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9.19.16 - Central Banks Are Buying Gold. Are You?

Gold last traded at $1,317 an ounce. Silver at $19.29 an ounce.

News Summary: Precious metals prices ended higher Monday on bullish outside markets and a lower U.S. dollar. Stocks wavered between gains and losses as investors brace for this week's central-bank meetings.

Central Banks Have Been Buying Gold With A Vengeance - Market Watch
"Annual net gold purchases of 350 tons a year by world central banks over the past eight years have returned to the 100-year average up to 1970 — reflecting gold’s renewed attractiveness as a safe-haven asset in an environment of uncertainty and low or negative interest rates. An OMFIF research document - the "Seven Ages Of Gold" - contains detailed statistics plotting long-run changes in central banks’ policies on buying and selling gold over seven distinct periods during the past two centuries, each lasting an average of around 30 years.

The latest 'Rebuilding' Period VII has been under way since the financial crisis in 2008. In these eight years, central banks in both developed and developing countries have shown a new fondness for gold, rebuilding its importance as a bedrock of most countries’ foreign reserves. Central banks have been net bullion buyers every year since 2008, adding more than 2,800 tons or 9.4% to reserves."

If The Fed Raises Rates, Gold Will Go Up Says 30 Years Of Data - The Street
"Friday's stronger-than-expected inflation data saw gold drop near three-month lows, and consensus says this week's U.S. Fed decision on interest rates has become D-Day for 2016's previous gains. But history says otherwise. Gold has since 1986 been more likely to rise if rates go up than if they stay the same, and by a greater percentage as well. Longer-term, a rate rise has also been followed by much stronger gold gains than a cut, and more frequently too."

We agree, the bull market in gold will not be deterred by an interest rate increase by the Fed in September or in December. If you need a fresh perspective on the bigger picture please read our 2016 Gold Report - World Edition.

Goldman: One Measure Suggests Stocks Could Crash 25% - Business Insider
"The S&P 500 is looking a little pricey, according to Goldman Sachs' David Kostin. Kostin, Goldman's chief equity strategist, said in a note to clients that even though companies in the S&P 500 are becoming less and less profitable, they are not being penalized by investors.

Based on the current ROE of the aggregate S&P 500, according to Kostin, there is significant reason to believe there is some downside.....Kostin has been warning about a possible pullback in equities for some time, as the market appears to be expensive compared to its historical average based on a number of metrics. This is another metric in that pullback narrative."

Heath Care Costs Rise By Most In 32 Years - CNN Money
"Prices for medicine, doctor appointments and health insurance rose the most last month since 1984. The price increases come amid a broader debate about climbing health care costs and high premiums for Obamacare coverage. A recent report by Kaiser/HRET Employer Health Benefits forecasts that the average family health care plan will cost $18,142, up 3.4% from 2015. That's faster than wage growth in America. Medical care costs altogether rose 1% just in August from July, according to the Consumer Price Index, a report on price inflation from the U.S. Labor Department. Premiums on the Obamacare exchanges are expected to rise by double-digits this year. "

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9.16.16 - Is Economic Freedom in Decline?

Gold last traded at $1,310 an ounce. Silver at $18.84 an ounce.

NEWS SUMMARY: Precious metal prices ended the week lower amid a firmer dollar and ongoing Fed rate hike speculation. U.S. stocks traded lower as investors digested key inflation data and looked ahead to next week's Fed meeting.

Gold steadies as U.S. data curbs rate rise speculation -Reuters
"Gold steadied above two-week lows on Friday after downbeat U.S. data curbed already muted expectations for a U.S. rate rise next week, though a firmer dollar and uncertainty over monetary policy kept it on track for its first weekly loss in three. The CME Group's FedWatch tool showed futures traders are now pricing in a 12 percent chance of a rate rise this month, down from 15 percent on Wednesday, after soft U.S. retail sales and manufacturing output data....While expectations for a September rate rise have faded, a new Reuters poll of 100 economists showed a median 70 percent chance of an increase in December."

lalaland The Fed Used Jackson Hole to Plan Negative Rates -Mauldin/Tumblr
"Jackson Hole revealed things that did not make it into reports by the mainstream media. Turns out, the academic and philosophical underpinnings were being laid down for a radical expansion of the Federal Reserve’s toolbox. The unthinkable policy that I’ve been warning about since last May - yes, we’re talking negative rates - was not only discussed at Jackson Hole, it was discussed in a positive, even slavishly approving, manner....Yellen went from being unsure that the Fed had legal authority to use negative rates to having no doubt that it could. That’s not a small shift. It tells us that somewhere deep in the bowels of the Fed, someone is cooking up some NIRP contingency plans. Having established that it has legal authority to use NIRP, the Fed can now develop specific plans for doing so."

Back on August 30th, we reported the Jackson Hole meeting of the financial elite included a discussion on The Case for Unencumbering Interest Rate Policy at the Zero Bound- Marvin Goodfriend, as reported by MarketSlant.com, which concluded, "Our takeaway was that this document was not just a discussion on NIRP risk and how to assess if/when to use it. This was also an answer key on how to make it happen. And among those recommendations was to 'Abolish Paper Currency'." Yes, behind the scenes central bankers are planning to steer interest rates downward as well as abolish cash as fast as possible, as we cover in TEN CONSEQUENCES OF A CASHLESS WORLD & THE SECRET WAR ON CASH.

How Love Translates Into Gold -Holmes/Business Insider
“Loyal readers know that the Fear Trade is associated with negative real interest rates and excessive money supply, which triggers an imbalance of monetary and fiscal policies and macroeconomic uncertainty. Historically, investors in the U.S., Japan, Germany and the U.K. have been the main drivers of the global Fear Trade. The Love Trade, on the other hand, is all about gold’s powerful allure and its timeless role as a gift without peer. It has two significant benefits: one, as beautiful gold jewelry to be worn, and two, as financial security. Although gold jewelry is often given as a special gift in Western countries, it pales in comparison to what takes place in China and India, or ‘Chindia’- home to about 40 percent of the world’s population, and the two largest gold importers.....Significant to boosting the metal’s price are important cultural events, from India’s upcoming Diwali festival and fourth-quarter wedding season to the Chinese New Year in January. Going back decades, the yellow metal has tended to perform best in September, when jewelry, coin and bullion dealers restock their inventories in preparation for these celebrations."

Economic Freedom of the World -CATO
"The foundations of economic freedom are personal choice, voluntary exchange, and open markets. As Adam Smith, Milton Friedman, and Friedrich Hayek have stressed, freedom of exchange and market coordination provide the fuel for economic progress. Without exchange and entrepreneurial activity coordinated through markets, modern living standards would be impossible....The United States, once considered a bastion of economic freedom, ranks 16th for a second consecutive year with a score of 7.75. Due to a weakening rule of law, increasing regulation, and the ramifications of wars on terrorism and drugs, the United States has seen its economic freedom score plummet in recent years, compared to 2000 when it ranked second globally."

Fifty years ago Alan Greenspan wrote, "Gold and freedom are inseparable." As freedom in America ebbs it is important to own more gold to offset the consequences. "Bad money drives good morals out of society," writes Swiss America Chairman Craig R. Smith in his upcoming book, Money, Morality & The Machine, due for release in early October. (Get a Free Book Preview here)

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9.15.16 - Is The Fed 'Crazy'?

Gold last traded at $1,318 an ounce. Silver at $19.04 an ounce.

NEWS SUMMARY: Precious metal prices traded mixed Thursday on a flat dollar ahead of the next Fed meeting. U.S. stocks traded higher as investors cheered Apple earnings, deciding to ignore a series of downbeat economic reports.

Greenspan Worries That ‘Crazies’ Will Undermine the U.S. System -Bloomberg
"Former Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan voiced concern that the U.S. economic and political system could be undermined by what he called 'crazies.' 'It is the worst economic and political environment that I’ve ever been remotely related to,' Greenspan, 90, told a conference in Washington Tuesday evening sponsored by Stanford University and the University of Chicago. On the economic front, the U.S. is headed toward stagflation - a combination of weak demand and elevated inflation, according to Greenspan. 'Politically, I haven’t a clue how this comes out.'....Greenspan repeated his concern on Tuesday that increased government spending on social security and healthcare are crowding out private investment and leading to slower economic growth. He bemoaned the fact that neither presidential candidate was talking about reining in those expenditures."

Fed funds chart Who’s Greenspan Calling Crazy? -New York Sun
"So who is Alan Greenspan suggesting is crazy?...No doubt the Democratic Party press is going to start suggesting that the crazies to whom Mr. Greenspan was referring are the Republicans led by Donald Trump....Maybe, though, Mr. Greenspan is suggesting that the Democrats, led by Hillary Clinton, are the crazy ones. Hamilton, after all, was America’s first treasury secretary; he wrote the law through which Congress first exercised its power to coin money and regulate the value thereof and of foreign coin. Hamilton’s law, known as the Coinage Act of 1792, defined the dollar as a given weight of silver or gold. The basic concept endured through nearly two centuries. Now, economist Judy Shelton has written, the central bankers insist that those who think of the dollar the way Hamilton did are the ones who are crazy. 'Really?' she asks, 'Crazier than negative interest rates? Crazier than paying banks to keep loanable funds in sterile depository accounts at the Fed? Crazier than having the Fed buy up trillions in government debt, remit the interest payments back to treasury, and then count that as revenue to the federal budget?'"

Alexander Hamilton would roll over in his grave to see how bankers have folded, spindled and mutilated the meaning and value of the U.S. dollar in the last century. We recommend converting paper I.O.U. debt (paper money) into the world's ultimate form of money - gold - now before any more "crazies" take over leadership, from either political party.

U.S. Among Most Depressed Countries in the World -US News
"The U.S. is one of the most depressed countries in the world, according to the World Health Organization. In terms of quality years of life lost due to disability or death – a widely adopted public health metric that measures the overall burden of disease – the U.S. ranked third for unipolar depressive disorders, just after India and China....About one in five adults in the U.S. experiences some form of mental illness each year, according to the National Alliance on Mental Illness, but only 41 percent of those affected received mental health care or services in the past year....Closing the gap between mental health patients and providers is a global issue."

Americans' Trust in Mass Media Sinks to New Low -Gallup
"Americans' trust and confidence in the mass media 'to report the news fully, accurately and fairly' has dropped to its lowest level in Gallup polling history, with 32% saying they have a great deal or fair amount of trust in the media. This is down eight percentage points from last year. Gallup began asking this question in 1972, and on a yearly basis since 1997. Over the history of the entire trend, Americans' trust and confidence hit its highest point in 1976, at 72%...Americans' trust in the media has fallen slowly and steadily. It has consistently been below a majority level since 2007....When opinion-driven writing becomes something like the norm, Americans may be wary of placing trust on the work of media institutions that have less rigorous reporting criteria than in the past."

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9.14.16 - Banking’s Culture Crisis

Gold last traded at $1,326 an ounce. Silver at $19.06 an ounce.

NEWS SUMMARY: Precious metal prices rose Wednesday on a weaker dollar amid Fed rate confusion. U.S. stocks struggled following a more than 1 percent sell-off on Tuesday.

Wells Fargo Shows Banking’s Culture Crisis Is Worsening -TIME
“You know there’s something off when a major American bank fires 5,300 employees for illegal tampering with 1.5 million bank accounts and applying for 565,000 credit cards that may not have been authorized by customers, and it’s not top news...Like many financial institutions that have been caught up in scandal before and after the 2008 crisis, Wells likely hopes that by paying a fine but not admitting fault, it can avoid lawsuits from the customers who were bilked, some of whom now have damaged credit thanks to the fraud. That’s just one of the many ‘business as usual’ behaviors in any industry that, eight years on from the biggest financial crisis in 70 years, still has a major culture problem. No wonder a 2014 University of Zurich study found that the banking industry tends to bring out dishonesty in employees; even after years of turmoil, scandal, and fines, the financial sector still struggles with a culture that rewards profit at any cost.”

Good News! We’re Almost as Rich as 15 Years Ago -The Daily Beast
"After more than a decade in the economic doldrums, with too few jobs and stagnant wages afflicting the vast majority of Americans, average incomes rose significantly in 2014, though the average income remains below the level in 2000....The median for 2014 was $38,171, up $733 or 1.9% from $37,438 in 2013, when adjusted for inflation....Despite this rise in average income, it was still, in both 2013 and 2014, well below the year 2000 average, measured in 2014 dollars, of $67,973....Since 2000 average incomes rose above that year only twice, in 2006 and 2007, and then only slightly."

paychecks

The More Cash People Have, the Happier They Are -Wall Street Journal
"Conventional wisdom says you should be investing as much of your excess money as you possibly can. That may be the best path to greater wealth. But it may not be the best path to happiness. In a previous article we looked at a broad range of research about money and happiness. Some of the main conclusions: Experiences tend to provide more lasting happiness than material goods; giving money away makes people happier than spending it on themselves; and wealthier people do tend to be happier, but only up to a certain point....We find a very interesting effect: that the amount of money you have in your bank account right now is a better predictor of happiness than your aggregate wealth. Having more money in their bank account makes people feel more financially secure, which leads to an increase in happiness."

Think your money is safe in the bank? "DON'T BANK ON IT!" was Craig Smith's response in his widely praised 2014 book. The modern banking system is doomed, warns Smith. Your best option is to find safer havens which offer; liquidity, worldwide acceptance and, most importantly, a time-tested store of value - rather than negative interest rates. Read our free Executive Summary and get prepared - before the next banking domino falls and starts a worldwide cascade of panic.

PAUL SINGER: 'It's a very dangerous time in the global economy' -Business Insider
“A prominent conservative hedge fund billionaire is blaming central bankers for the slow economy. Paul Singer, the founder of the hedge fund Elliott Management, said Tuesday that policymakers needed to consider fiscal policies to spur the economy, arguing that they had created a risky environment for investors. ‘Central bankers say, Growth hasn't really picked up, but in the absence of what we're doing it would have been a lot worse,’ Singer said at the CNBC Institutional Investor Delivering Alpha conference in New York....‘What they have done is created a tremendous increase in hidden risk. Risk that investors don't exactly know or have faced about their holdings.’ ‘I think it's a very dangerous time in the global economy and global financial markets,’ he added....Singer also said Tuesday that the bond markets were facing a bubble situation, and he recommended that investors sell their 10-, 20-, and 30-year bonds. ‘These are not safe havens,’ he said. ‘In fact, there's a tremendous amount of risk.’ He has also recommended holding gold.”

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9.13.16 - Wells Fargo: Another Money & Moral Failure

Gold last traded at $1,323 an ounce. Silver at $18.97 an ounce.

NEWS SUMMARY: Precious metal prices traded in a tight range Tueasday on a firmer dollar and Fed uncertainty. U.S. stocks fell sharply as investors looked ahead to next week's Fed meeting while keeping an eye on falling oil prices.

September U.S. Rate Hike Wouldn’t Spoil Appetite for Gold -Bloomberg
"For the manager of SPDR Gold Shares, the largest exchange-traded fund backed by the metal, not even a surprise increase in borrowing costs this month would be enough to damp investors’ appetite for gold. Almost $12 billion has poured into SPDR Gold this year, poised for the biggest annual inflow since its inception in 2004. While a Fed hike this month could trigger a broad-based selloff in markets, it wouldn’t cause gold to slide into a bear market because rates would still be near historic lows, said David Mazza, the head of ETF and mutual-fund research at State Street Global Advisors."

We agree, the bull market in gold will not be deterred by a .25% interest rate increase by the Fed in September or in December. If you need a fresh perspective on the bigger picture please read our 2016 Gold Report - World Edition.

MMM How Regulation Failed with Wells Fargo -The New Yorker
“'Team members,' as Wells Fargo prefers to call its employees, had strict mandates to sign existing customers up for additional products. Someone with a savings account should be convinced to open a checking account, get a credit card, transfer a 401(k), and maybe even take out a mortgage. The sales targets were so high that many employees found them impossible to meet, until someone hit upon an ingenious solution: ignore the customers’ wishes, as well as banking law and basic ethics, and open up new accounts even when the clients had asked them not to. In some cases, customers were charged late fees on accounts they hadn’t requested and that they didn’t know they had....Bad behavior should lead to fines large enough to infuriate shareholders and cost C.E.O.s their jobs. What’s more, these executives need to know that they will face criminal prosecution when they direct or ignore criminal activity."

"Bad money drives good morals out of society," writes Swiss America Chairman Craig R. Smith in his upcoming book, Money, Morality & The Machine, due for release in early October. (Get a Free Book Preview here) This latest episode with Wells Fargo supports Smith's statement. Today banks are so desperate to boost sales in a Fed-created zero-interest environment, that over 5,000 employees decided to compromise their ethics. Very sad. On the upside, Zero Hedge reports, "Wells Fargo said that it would eliminate all product sales goals in retail banking, starting next year."

The Age of Stagfusion -The Economist
"The Federal Reserve looks more likely to increase rates this year while the European Central Bank (ECB) failed to add any stimulus last week. The narrowing presidential polls in America (and the health scare for Hillary Clinton) can be thrown into the mix; there is not the usual investor enthusiasm for the Republicans, given the nature of the nominee. But the underlying problem needs a new word—stagfusion. Investors have become used to low interest rates and bond yields since central banks started to loosen policy in 2008....So investors are confused. They recognize that a world of zero interest rates and negative bond yields is inherently strange and problematic and fear it can’t last forever. But they worry what will happen when they cease to benefit from all that central bank support. Perhaps stagnation is better than the alternative? Hence 'stagfusion'."

Stagflation, stagnation or stagfusion - call it what you like - the U.S. economy and job creation are both stuck. Meanwhile, the real cost of living is rising. In the late 1970s stagflation nearly crushed the middle class over several years. President Reagan and Fed chairman Paul Volker made some tough choices to stabilize the economy which ultimately created a jobs boom in the 1980s. Often the toughest choices are also the wisest choices over the long term.

The largest wealth transfer in history has already begun -Marketwatch
"The rich appear to be leaving the middle class behind. Most U.S. middle-income households (81%) had flat or falling income between 2004 and 2014, according to recent U.S. Congressional Budget Office data analyzed by the McKinsey Global Institute, a global management company. And 61% of middle-income households say their incomes are either not advancing or they’re staying the same as they were last year: 'Most people growing up in advanced economies since World War II have been able to assume they will be better off than their parents. Yet this overwhelmingly positive income trend has ended.'....Last year, ultrahigh-net-worth individuals - defined as those with assets of $30 million or more - aged 80 or over were on average seven times wealthier than those under 30 years old."

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9.12.16 - Prepare For Market Volatility

Gold last traded at $1,325 an ounce. Silver at $19.00 an ounce.

NEWS SUMMARY: Precious metal prices steadied Monday on speculation the Fed may lift interest rates this month. U.S. stocks rose following a global equities sell-off as investors wondered what the Fed will do.

Selloff gathers pace as stimulus pullback fears deepen -Reuters
"European stocks and bonds fell in a volatile market on Monday, hit by growing concerns that global central banks' commitment to the post-crisis orthodoxy of super-low interest rates and asset purchase programs may be waning....Selling was driven by revived prospects of the U.S. Federal Reserve hiking rates next week, and concerns that the European Central Bank and the Bank of Japan may be slowing their monetary policy easing efforts. 'It's a pretty broad-based sell-off on an increasing view that perhaps central banks are going to draw back from providing ever more easing,' said RBC European economist Cathal Kennedy."

consenseless Don't Let Them Crush You Again -Hedge Eye
"Did you see?...what stocks, bonds, and commodities did on one Fed voter (Boston's Eric Rosengren) ramping his rate hike rhetoric on Friday? How about eviscerating all the no-volume 'gains' of the SPY’s summer on a +46.5% volatility (VIX) spike?....As I've said many times before, "risk happens slowly at first, then all at once.'....Remember... Every seven years or so, most investors get royally crushed by these centrally-planned bubbles, by Old Wall Street and its head-in-the-sand research analysts, and by the woefully blind financial media supporting it. Don't let them crush you again. Don't be a sheep."

Time to Consider More Gold and Silver Following the Latest Fiat Crash? -The Daily Bell
"The Federal Reserve’s ongoing policy failures once again wrecked markets on Friday. Just a hint that the Fed might raise at its next formal meeting caused reverberations around the world and dropped averages in numerous markets....In fact, what the Fed intends to do only makes sense if one remembers that central banks are at this point nothing more than a tool of global governance. Elites are determined to consolidate government at a global level and it will likely take various forms of catastrophe – war and economic ruin especially – to generate the necessary impetus to create and impose what’s necessary....Conclusion: The cycle is turning and physical precious metals as well as precious metals miners are likely to generate profits that will outstrip mainstream equity and fixed-income positions."

Post-recession Americans don’t need money to find happiness -New York Post
"The American Dream is being remade in the wake of the Great Recession. Just as necessity is the mother of invention, a recession can be the father of consciousness. More and more of us are becoming conscious of the ways in which money, and all of the stuff it can buy, doesn’t reliably lead to happiness. Many Americans are trading so-called security for flexibility: Home ownership rates are at their lowest since 1995, and it’s estimated that half of the US workforce will be freelance by 2020. There’s a reason people are obsessed with downsizing and sharing, seeking out experiences rather than storage lockers....Happiness, some of us have come to realize, is realistically less likely to be earned by the individual and more likely to stem from community."

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9.9.16 - Are Tech Stocks in a Bubble?

Gold last traded at $1,328 an ounce. Silver at $19.06 an ounce.

NEWS SUMMARY:Precious metal prices retreated Friday on a stronger dollar following Fedspeak. US equities closed sharply lower as concerns the Fed might raise interest rates loomed.

Central bank gold buying – what the media reports don’t really tell you -Sharps Pixley
"There’s been a fair amount of media coverage of the reduction in net central bank gold purchases seen so far this year, but the writers of these seem to treat all central banks as one....There have only been three central banks which have consistently added to their gold reserves on a regular basis over the past year – Russia, China and, to a smaller but significant in total effect, extent Kazakhstan. Since China began publishing its monthly gold purchase data in July last year it has, according to IMF data, added 174 tonnes of gold, while Russia has added even more at 230 tonnes....China is set on full internationalisation of the yuan (renminbi) and feels that its gold holdings could help it achieve this. It is already well on its way with the yuan becoming an integral part of the IMF’s Special Drawing Right (SDR) on October 1st. This will give it effective status as A global reserve currency, although not THE global reserve currency."

Stocks sell off, all 3 major indexes post worst day since June 24; Fed fears loom -CNBC
"U.S. equities traded lower on Friday as concerns the Federal Reserve might raise interest rates this month loomed following a speech made by a Fed official, while eyeing falling oil prices. 'The commentary from a voting member that the Fed may be forced to raise rates is important,' said Kim Forrest, senior equity analyst at Fort Pitt Capital. 'I think the market needs to understand that there may be a rate hike coming. Whether it's September or December, it doesn't matter big picture.'"

Are tech stocks in a bubble? -Craig R. Smith/Fox Business
Neil Cavuto of Fox Business interviews Craig R. Smith, Chairman of Swiss America on Thursday, September 8. Watch now to hear Smith's predictions on where this over-valued market is headed. WATCH HERE

Wells Fargo Fires 5,300 For Engaging In Massive Fraud, Creating Over 2 Million Fake Accounts -Zero Hedge
"For years we have wondered why Wells Fargo, America's largest mortgage lender, is also Warren Buffett's favorite bank. Now we know why. On Thursday, Wells Fargo was fined $185 million, (including a $100 million penalty from the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau, the largest penalty the agency has ever issued) for engaging in pervasive fraud over the years which included opening credit cards secretly without a customer’s consent, creating fake email accounts to sign up customers for online banking services, and forcing customers to accumulate late fees on accounts they never even knew they had. Regulators said such illegal sales practices had been going on since at least 2011. In all, Wells opened 1.5 million bank accounts and 'applied' 560,000 credit cards that were not authorized by their customers."

What Would It Take to Save the Middle Class? Drastic change -The Atlantic
"If the well-being of the middle-class is the yardstick by which America’s success is measured, then the country is in trouble....In a report released by the left-leaning Center for American Progress on Thursday, the researchers Carmel Martin, Andy Green, and Brendan Duke offer suggestions for what the next administration can do to to reestablish the middle class....They advocate for increasing the minimum wage and overtime threshold, strengthening unemployment insurance, and establishing a subsidized job program to help those struggling to find work....As the left rallies around these worker-first strategies, conservative groups have their own ideas for how to rebuild the middle class, many of which embody a top-down logic. The Trump campaign, for instance, has advocated lowering both personal and corporate taxes, which it says will spur business growth and bring more economic activity to American shores. Meanwhile, the right-leaning Heritage Foundation has criticized efforts to raise the minimum wage, saying that hikes would burden business owners and result in job loss."

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9.8.16 - Recession Jitters Abound

Gold last traded at $1,341 an ounce. Silver at $19.67 an ounce.

NEWS SUMMARY: Precious metal prices eased back Thursday on mild profit-taking after the EU central bank decided to stand pat on current stimulus plans. U.S. stocks traded lower despite a surge in oil prices.

US recession jitters stoke fears of impotent Fed and fiscal paralysis -Evans-Pritchard/Telegraph
"An ominous paper by the US Federal Reserve has become the hottest document in high finance....David Reifschneider's analysis - 'Gauging the Ability of the FOMC to Respond to Future Recessions' - more or less concedes that the Fed has run out of heavy ammunition....This admission is painfully topical as a plethora of data suggest that the US economy may have hit a brick wall in August....Warning signs certainly abound. Corporate profits have been slipping for six quarters, the typical precursor to an abrupt slump in business spending. 'The only thing keeping the US out of recession is the US consumer. If consumption stalls then we really are in trouble,' says Albert Edwards from Societe Generale."

Warnings that the next U.S. recession is already knocking on our door this Fall are growing daily. When consumer spending starts to sputter, watch out! Don't be caught without a golden parachute when stocks, bonds and currencies go into a free-fall. Be prepared! Read our 2016 Gold Report - World Edition.

Yellen Stock Market Bubble Will Pop, Social Mood Will Get Extremely Ugly -Zero Hedge
"In efforts to spur lending and increase the rate of inflation, central banks in the US, EU, and Japan have engaged in dubious tactics. Every time their actions fail, they double down in failed strategies....While there are many reasons for the disparity in moods today, I am afraid, the decoupling of Main Street mood from Wall Street mood will represent a clear headwind to the economic thinking behind today’s proposed central bank actions....As a socionomist, I believe that increases in confidence boost both financial asset prices and consumption simultaneously. Mood precedes action, rather than lags it. We act as we feel, driven by our level of confidence. With high confidence we see permanence to our financial condition expecting it to continue long into the future. Sadly, today’s central bankers don’t see confidence/action causality operating this way."

Cash Means Freedom, Which Is Why So Many Officials Hate It -Reason
"Cash - the familiar, anonymous paper money and metallic coins that most of us grew up using - isn't just convenient, it's also a powerful shield for our autonomy and our privacy. That's the argument of cash advocates of course - but also of those economists and government officials who want to abolish the stuff. Cash's power to protect people from meddling and tracking motivates both parties, either to shore up our defenses against the state, or to squish them under their thumbs....Cash is 'printed freedom,' German economist Lars Feld pithily offered as a direct rebuttal to his Council of Economic Experts colleague. People 'should be entitled to an escape from all-out state control,' Deutsche Welle clarified with regard to Feld's views. There's really no argument here. Cash abolitionists fully understand that cash shields individuals from the state - and they hate that protection."

Are financial freedom and privacy important to you? Does it bother you that a new cashless world is being forced on U.S. citizens by economists and government officials? If so, we suggest reading TEN CONSEQUENCES OF A CASHLESS WORLD & THE SECRET WAR ON CASH.

Gold Gains Strength From Weaker U.S. Dollar -Wall Street Journal
"Gold prices gained ground early Thursday, supported by a weaker U.S. dollar and lowered expectations the Federal Reserve could raise interest rates this month....The strength of the dollar has been the driving factor for the gold price for the last few weeks, acting as a signal for expectations of the timing of a future U.S. rate rise, said Carsten Menke, a commodities research analyst at Julius Baer....Low interest rates are typically bullish for gold, which doesn’t bear interest and becomes more competitive against yield-bearing investments when rates stay low."

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9.7.16 - Silver & Gold Primed For Price Spike

Gold last traded at $1,349 an ounce. Silver at $19.84 an ounce.

NEWS SUMMARY: Precious metal prices consolidated recent gains Wednesday amid a flat dollar and lackluster Fed statements. U.S. stocks traded mixed with consumer staples lagging.

Gold is getting ready for a super-spike -Rickards/Daily Reckoning
"Right now, if you understand physical gold flows, you could stand to make a fortune in the months and years ahead....The reason is that the price of gold is largely determined in 'paper gold' markets, such as Comex gold futures and gold ETFs. These paper gold contracts represent 100 times (or more) the amount of physical gold available to settle those contracts....But, as soon as paper gold contract holders demand physical gold in settlement, they will be shocked to discover there’s not nearly enough physical gold to go around. At that point, there will be panicked buying of gold....Gold prices are set to skyrocket based on a combination of supply and demand fundamentals and the ETF pro-cyclical feedback loop."

gold reports Silver's Volatility Makes It the Precious Metal of Choice -Seeking Alpha
"Silver has been gold's little brother for thousands of years. When you think of money, if precious metals were currency, then silver is the coin and gold the note....The most important thing to remember about silver is that it is more volatile than its precious cousin gold....However, when silver decides to make a move watch out, it has a penchant to shock and move higher or lower than any analyst, trader or investor thinks possible. In October 2008, silver fell to lows of $8.40 per ounce. By April 2011, the price rose to $49.82, an increase of almost 500% in two and a half years. In hindsight the move was one-way, but there were many speed bumps on the way to a five-fold increase in price."

The Swiss America research department has developed three reports which will help our readers and clients stay ahead of the financial curve in 2016 and prepare for dramatic changes wisely; The 2016 Gold Report: Global Edition, The 2016 Silver Report: The Global Metaland The 2016 World Money Report. Request a FREE copy of all three reports today - before the next big price move.

Cash in a Box Catches On as Swiss Negative Rates Bite -Bloomberg
“It’s a sign the world is getting used to negative interest rates when what once seemed bizarre starts looking like the norm. Consider Switzerland, where more and more companies are taking out insurance policies to protect their cash hoards from theft or damage. 'Because of the low interest rate level, we note increasing demand for insurance solutions for the storage of cash,’ said Philipp Surholt at Zurich Insurance Group AG, among underwriters reporting a surge in such requests. ‘We’re seeing demand for coverage for sums ranging from 100 million to 500 million francs.’ The Swiss National Bank imposed sub-zero rates in early 2015, effectively charging banks for excess deposits."

Governments and bankers worldwide have declared a 'war on cash' which is being waged via financial repression and negative interest rates. To better understand exactly how this new cashless world is being forced on U.S. citizens, we suggest reading TEN CONSEQUENCES OF A CASHLESS WORLD & THE SECRET WAR ON CASH.

Europe forges ahead with plans for 'EU army' -Telegraph
“Europe is planning to forge ahead with plans for an EU Army that some fear could eventually displace NATO, with senior officials in Brussels urging EU member states to capitalize on the ‘political space’ left by Britain’s decision to vote to leave. Federica Mogherini, the EU's foreign policy chief, is preparing to forward a timetable setting out steps to create EU military structures ‘to act autonomously’ from NATO. Europe’s top diplomat reportedly told colleagues that the military plan - billed by some countries as the foundation of a ‘European army’ - represented a chance for the EU to relaunch itself after the ‘shocking’ Brexit vote. ‘We have the political space today to do things that were not really doable in previous years,’ Ms. Mogherini told EU ambassadors, according to a report in The Times.”

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9.6.16 - Are At-Home Gold IRAs Legal?

Gold last traded at $1,354 an ounce. Silver at $20.13 an ounce.

NEWS SUMMARY: Precious metal prices shot up Monday as shockingly weak U.S. ISM non-manufacturing data dragged the dollar sharply lower. U.S. stocks recovered modestly as downbeat economic news tilted the odds against a Fed rate hike this month.

This Labor Day, let’s acknowledge why our job-creation machine is broken -Marketwatch
"Both presidential candidates have talked a good game about jobs and the economy, but neither addresses the real problem. The U.S. job-creation machine - once the envy of the world - is broken, because American corporations cannot create steady, well-paying jobs here in the USA while also providing maximal returns to their investors, who are really in charge....I won’t shed tears for people who make $19 million a year on average, but the total victory of shareholder capitalism has left top executives dancing to investors’ tunes. For the rest of us, the music is off-key - and nothing being proposed by either presidential candidate or political party will change the corporate mindset in which job creation is a low priority at best and may even be antithetical to investors, who now completely run the show."

Precious Metals IRA Want to Keep Gold in Your IRA at Home? It’s Not Exactly Legal -Wall Street Journal
"Advertisements this summer have claimed that people can invest their tax-free retirement accounts in gold and store it at home. But the IRS has issued a stern warning against the move....One ad, for Hartford Gold Group, shows a smiling couple near an open safe containing gold bars and the text, 'Your Gold, Your Hands, Your Control.' Others urge consumers to 'Start Your Home-Storage Gold IRA' and 'Store IRA metals wherever you choose, even in your own home.' Experts on 'alternative-asset' IRAs, which hold investments other than traded securities, are highly skeptical of this strategy....The Internal Revenue Service says it 'warns taxpayers to be wary of anyone claiming that precious metals held in your IRA can be stored at home or in a safe-deposit box.'....While the courts have allowed IRAs to own LLCs, this strategy as regards precious-metals storage hasn’t been addressed in court."

While it's a very good idea to protect your retirement with a precious metals IRA, the Wall Street Journal confirms why Swiss America has never recommended IRA home storage. Swiss America has always felt strongly that the safest way to maintain peace of mind about your retirement holdings is to open an IRS-approved precious metals IRA, covered in our Precious Metals IRA kit.

James Turk Issues Dire Warning As Fed To Monetize ‘Everything In Sight’ -King World News
"Although the Dow Jones Industrials and other major indices are making new highs, the banking sector is glaringly underperforming....Shares of companies owning real assets – like commodity producers – are glaringly diverging from shares of companies owning financial assets – like banks....The reason this is important Eric, is that this divergence is an early warning sign that the dollar is headed toward hyperinflation. When you look at countries where the currency has hyperinflated - like Zimbabwe or more recently, Venezuela - their stock markets showed this same divergence we are now seeing on the NYSE....Finally, another piece of evidence that the Federal Reserve is heading for a train wreck is this statement from Fed Chair Yellen on Friday: 'Policymakers may wish to explore the possibility of purchasing a broader range of assets.' They are planning to monetize everything in sight, rather than admit that their policies have failed and they are destroying the dollar.”

Gold Withdrawals From The NY Fed Accelerate, Hit 388 Tons Since 2014 -Zero Hedge
"First it was Germany who redeemed 120 tons of physical gold from the NY Fed in 2014; then it was the Netherlands who 'secretly' redomiciled 122 tons of gold; then last May, we learned that Austria would be the third 'core' European nation to repatriate most of its offshore gold, held primarily in the Bank of England, redepositing it in Vienna and Switzerland. That was just the beginning. Thanks to the latest NY Fed data, we now know that beginning in 2014 and continuing through yesterday, the gold 'bleeding' from the vault located 90 feet below street level at 33 Liberty Street is not only continuing but accelerating....According to the Ny Fed, in the seven months ended July 2016, there were a total of 87 tons of gold withdrawals, 25% more than the 69 tons withdrawn in the same period in 2015, and 60% more than the 55 tons withdrawn in 2014."

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9.2.16 - Gold's Best Month of the Year Begins

Gold last traded at $1,326 an ounce. Silver at $19.36 an ounce.

NEWS SUMMARY: Precious metal prices rose sharply Friday following downbeat August jobs data despite a firmer dollar. U.S. stocks rose on hopes that slow job growth would prompt the Fed to postpone an interest rate hike until December.

"August Curse" Continues As Payrolls Miss, Rise By Only 151,000; Hourly Earnings Disappoint -Zero Hedge
"With Wall Street expecting another solid month of payroll growth, following multiple-sigma outlier prints in June and July, the whisper expectations was for a miss on the back of the previously discussed 'August Curse' which has seen a consistent miss in the month of August for the past decade, and that is precisely what happened when moments ago the BLS reported that in the month of August only 151K jobs were added, missing the consensus of 180K job growth by nearly 30,000 jobs....The unemployment rate remained flat at 4.9%, despite expectations of a decline to 4.8%, while hourly earnings rose just 0.1%, also missing expectations of 0.2% increase, and down sharply from last month's 0.3% rebound....Most troubling is that the 'any minute now' jump in wages refuses to arrive..."

gold chart Gold investors, prepare for the best month of the year -Marketwatch
"September is the best month of the calendar for gold....Since the early 1970s, when it first became legal for U.S. citizens to own bullion, gold has produced an average return of 2.2% in September. The average return for the 11 other months combined is 0.6%, or barely more than a quarter of September’s average gain....Gold’s seasonal tendencies, therefore, stand in stark contrast to the stock market’s, where September is by far the worst month of the calendar....The bottom line: Gold sentiment is improving, even if it is not yet at low enough levels to trigger an outright contrarian “buy” signal. Coupled with positive seasonal tendencies, however, it may be time to give gold the benefit of the doubt."

September is a great time to buy more gold - before its best month of the year becomes history. If you don't yet own gold, we suggest taking advantage of bargain summer prices before the next big move. If you still have questions, please review our 2016 Gold Report - World Edition.

The Idle Army: America’s Unworking Men -Wall Street Journal
"Labor Day is an appropriate moment to reflect on a quiet catastrophe: the collapse, over two generations, of work for American men. During the past half-century, work rates for U.S. males spiraled relentlessly downward. America is now home to a vast army of jobless men who are no longer even looking for work - roughly seven million of them age 25 to 54, the traditional prime of working life. This is arguably a crisis, but it is hardly ever discussed in the public square....What do unworking men do with their free time? Sadly, not much that’s constructive. About a tenth are students trying to improve their circumstances. But the overwhelming majority are what the British call NEET: 'neither employed nor in education or training.'....In short, the American male’s postwar flight from work is a grave social ill."

Control inflation? We have to understand it first -Telegraph
"In a recent paper John Williams, president of the San Francisco Federal Reserve, asked a rhetorical question: 'Is the Fed’s inflation target too low?' Inflation is definitely stubbornly low. So it’s a good starting point but the wrong question is being asked. A more fundamental rethink is necessary - starting with: 'Should we be targeting inflation at all?' After all we can’t measure inflation, we can’t control it and we don’t really even understand it....Inflation is actually really hard to measure. The Consumer Price Index (CPI) or Retail Price Index (RPI), that are generally used, are just proxies and not very good ones....There has been talk of raising inflation targets. That’s pointless if you can’t hit the one you already have. This is a golden opportunity for central bankers to grasp the nettle and make the meaningful changes that should foster growth and stability for generations to come."

We agree. The Fed is unable to get a true reading on real world inflation using the CPI or other artificial government indexes. Alternative inflation indexes show prices are already rising 4-6% per year. The truth is the government and Fed prefer to pretend inflation is lower than it really is. Why? To keep a lid on cost of living increases to Social Security and other entitlement programs. If you want to understand how the government uses inflation as a tool of social engineering, mind manipulation, wealth redistribution, secret taxation and political power; read our Executive Summary of The Inflation Deception

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9.1.16 - When Bad Jobs Data is Good News

Gold last traded at $1,317 an ounce. Silver at $18.94 an ounce.

NEWS SUMMARY: Precious metal prices rose Thursday on a weaker dollar. U.S. stocks traded flat as investors digested downbeat ISM manufacturing data ahead of Friday's key jobs report.

Deutsche Bank refuses clients' demand for physical gold -RT
"Clients of Germany’s biggest bank who have invested in the exchange-traded commodity Xetra-Gold are facing problems when they want to obtain physical gold, according to German analytic website Godmode-Trader.de. Xetra-Gold is a bond on the Deutsche Börse commodities market, and Deutsche Bank is a designated sponsor. On the website, Xetra-Gold says its clients have the right for physical delivery of gold....However, despite claims that every virtual gram of gold is backed by the same amount of physical gold, clients have been refused the precious metal upon demand....thus, troubles with delivering even small gold amounts to retail clients by Deutsche Bank may indicate that a global physical gold shortage is only growing."

The old expression, "Possession is nine-tenths of the law," means ownership is easier to maintain if one has possession of an asset and it can be very difficult to enforce if one does not. This is especially true when it comes to physical gold. For this reason, we recommend physical gold ownership instead of stocks, ETFs or other IOUs. Read more in our The Timeless Truth About Gold & Silver.

jobs The Best Case For Stocks & Bonds Is A Bad Jobs Print -HedgeEye
"Takeaway: Worse jobs print = No Rate Hike = Stocks up = Bonds up....'Markets can handle 25 bps' (heard in DEC 2015 and AUG 2016) – in other news SP500 closed down -0.12% in AUG after having 7 down days in the last 9 on rate hike fears; can markets handle another hike into a slow-down? Perversely, best case for stocks/bonds is a slightly worse jobs print (no hike) - gotta love super #LateCycle labor data."

US Manufacturing Crashes Into Contraction In August, Election Uncertainty Blamed -Zero Hedge
"ISM Manufacturing had already rolled over in July, but August's collapse (from 52.6 to a contractionary 49.4) has erased the dead cat bounce hopes of Q2. Across the board, ISM factors deteriorated with new orders plunging....Markit's explanation is simple: 'there's anecdotal evidence to suggest that this at least in part reflects a slowing in the economy in the lead up to the presidential election.' We guess productivity has been declining for the same reason for the last 9 months? ISM had already rolled over in July, and August's collapse (from 52.6 to a contractionary 49.4) has erased the dead cat bounce hopes of Q2. Across the board, ISM factors deteriorated with new orders plunging."

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