July Blog Archives 2019

Gold last traded at $1,438 an ounce. Silver at $16.41 an ounce.

NEWS SUMMARY: Precious metal prices traded steady Wednesday ahead of a widely-expected Fed interest rate cut. U.S. stocks were little changed as Wall Street awaited the Federal Reserve’s latest monetary policy decision while digesting corporate earnings from Apple.

Gold Fever Breaks Out in New ‘Bubble Game’ as Fed Preps a Cut -Bloomberg
"A top-ranked strategist at Societe Generale has a plan for clients fretting that a fresh wave of monetary easing will fan a bubble across assets. Ride the bull until 2020 - when a U.S. recession and a debased dollar will make gold the perfect doomsday hedge, says Alain Bokobza. It's the latest warning for investors betting that the Federal Reserve will help extend the business cycle with stimulus this week, and a sign of how gold fever is breaking out from London to New York. 'Gold is the perfect response if you're entering the bubble game,' the head of global asset allocation said in an interview in London. 'Every time you have such a situation, gold has soared,' said Bokobza....'Gold is one of the most correlated assets to the U.S. dollar - rising most of the time when the dollar falls, and thus a good hedge against a falling U.S. currency.' The CEO of UBS Group AG warned last week of 'dangerous' bubble risk spurred by central banks....'Precious metals are one of the few pockets of this market offering tremendous value to hedge against extreme monetary policies, bursting asset bubbles, and record global leverage,' Kevin Smith, chief investment officer at Crescat, wrote in a recent investor letter. He calls precious metals 'incredibly undervalued' relative to other assets...'A new awareness of global fiat currency debasement polices is now in its early stages,' Smith wrote. 'Gold should become a core asset for those who believe in this macro development.'"

If The Fed Cuts Rates Now, It'll Be An Admission That A Recession Is Imminent -Zero Hedge
"Fed Chair Jerome Powell has repeatedly insisted that the U.S. economy is in great shape even when there has been a tremendous amount of evidence indicating otherwise...If the U.S. economy really was 'booming', there is no way that the Fed should cut interest rates. Right now interest rates are already low by historical standards, and theoretically it is during the 'boom' times that interest rates should be normalized. But if the U.S. economy is actually slowing down and heading into a recession, then a rate cut would make perfect sense....Cutting rates would be a way to 'play it safe' by appeasing President Trump and his supporters. If President Trump senses that the Fed is on his team, then he probably won't be inclined to make a big move against them. In any event, a small rate cut is definitely not going to do much to alter our overall economic trajectory. Because the truth is that an economic slowdown has already begun, and many experts are anticipating that it will greatly accelerate during the second half of this year."

A Fed Reversal Will Store Up Trouble -Wall Street Journal
"Will the world's currencies face a reckoning in 2019? This year gold has risen 10% against the U.S. dollar...All other major currencies have also fallen by similar magnitudes against both gold and bitcoin - troubling signs. The larger story is that an unnecessary return to fiscal and monetary stimulus, signaled over the past few weeks by the Federal Reserve and the European Central Bank, may produce a crisis of confidence in fiat currencies, including the U.S. dollar. Since President Nixon abandoned the gold standard in 1971, the U.S. and other major economies have had unlimited supplies of money, unanchored to any physical commodity. Almost five decades on, many central banks employ quantitative easing to inject money into their economies. This continues despite the diminishing returns to growth....Proponents of ultra-easy monetary policy believe countries such as the U.S., with floating exchange rates and debt denominated in their own currencies, cannot go bust....Ultimately, faith in the fiat-currency system relies on the perception that central banks are acting responsibly. Should there be a loss of confidence in the U.S. dollar as a store of wealth, there could be significant capital flight, even a collapse in the currency....By folding to these external pressures and cutting interest rates while U.S. equity markets are at all-time highs and unemployment is at multi-decade lows, the Fed is putting its credibility at stake....Given how alternative stores of wealth such as gold and cryptocurrencies have outperformed all major currencies in 2019, we could well be at the cusp of a crisis of confidence in fiat currencies."

Can the 3-headed Democratic Party win? -Ponte/WND
"New York Times pundit Thomas B. Edsall observes that 'The Democratic Party is actually three parties. They have different constituents and prefer different policies. Satisfying them all will not be easy.' To describe this medically, the Democratic Party has one body with three heads, possessed by three contradictory personalities. What liberal Edsall could not bear to admit is that the Democrats' multiple personalities create an internal contradiction that could be fatal to the party's hopes of victory in 2020 and beyond. This one big party could easily split into three small parties. The three loosely-united parties we call the Democrats include a 'very liberal' faction obsessed with radical causes such as climate extremism and unlimited abortion; a 'somewhat liberal' left wing devoted to race, gender and immigration issues; and, largest of the three, a party of moderate and conservative voters focused on 'creating jobs' and (gasp) 'lowering taxes.'....Democrats depend utterly on winning supermajorities of minority voters – black, Latino, Asian-American and other collectivized groups. This is why their media auxiliaries CNN and MSNBC boosted the number of times they call President Donald Trump a 'racist' to above 2,000 a week...According to July polling by Rasmussen Reports, 32 percent of Democrats think it is 'racism any time a white politician criticizes the political views of a politician of color.' 'That's just speech-stifling, freedom-chilling crazy,' writes Cheryl Chumley of the Washington Times. 'That's racism in itself … to claim white politicians can't criticize black politicians simply because of skin colors....This label 'racist' is rapidly losing all credibility. If everyone is a racist, then nobody is."

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Gold last traded at $1,429 an ounce. Silver at $16.55 an ounce.

NEWS SUMMARY: Precious metal prices rose Tuesday on safe-haven buying despite a firmer dollar. U.S. stocks fell amid China trade concerns ahead of Wednesday's Fed rate decision.

Money Managers Pile Into Bullish Silver Positions -Kitco
"Fund managers sharply increased their bullish positioning in silver futures, while largely maintaining the status quo in gold, during the most recent reporting week for data compiled by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission, analysts said. During the week-long period to July 23 covered by the data, Comex August gold rose $10.50 to $1,421.70 an ounce, while September silver surged 79.8 cents to $16.476....The disaggregated report shows that money managers' net long in silver futures jumped to 51,656 contracts from 27,764 the week before. The net length is now more than triple the 15,527 contracts from two weeks ago. In recent months, speculators had piled into bullish gold positions. Now, they are warming up to silver as well. 'Silver made a breakout of a sideways pattern,' said Phil Flynn, senior market analyst with at Price Futures Group. Further, as was the case in gold, the metal began to draw buying on expectations of lower interest rates in the U.S., Flynn continued. 'People are going back to silver as an alternative investment.'"

Gold To Be Revalued In New 'De Facto' Gold Standard -Zero Hedge
"The United States wants its fiat dollar system to prevail for as long as possible. It has every interest in preventing a 'rush out of dollars toward gold,' as happened in the 1970s. Since then bankers have been trying to exercise control over the precious metal's price. This war on gold has been ongoing for almost 100 years but gained traction in the 1960s with the forming of the London Gold Pool, whose members included the US, UK, Netherlands, Germany, France, Italy, Belgium, and Switzerland. Today Washington may consider it useful to bring back gold to support the dollar. Some U.S. insiders have even been calling openly for a return to the old way of doing things. Neo-conservative Robert Zoellick, the former president of the World Bank, wrote an open letter to the Financial Times in 2010 entitled 'Bring Back the Gold Standard.' A 2012 study by the Chatham House gold task force suggested that the metal could be added to the International Monetary Fund's special drawing right....Clearly gold is making a remarkable comeback to the world financial system. A new gold standard is being born without any formal decision. At least that is how Ambrose Evans-Pritchard, an influential international business editor of The Telegraph, described the ongoing efforts by countries to lay their hands on physical gold: 'The world is moving step by step toward a de-facto gold standard, without any meetings of G20 leaders to announce this.'"

Yes, you can un-retire and go back to work. Here are 3 financial signs it's time to do it -USA Today
"We decided to climb Pikes Peak, and after we parked and made our way to the trailhead with our friends, my wife ominously blurted 'there’s no turning back now.' She was wrong. Sixty minutes later, I was on my way back down the mountain by myself...One of the most difficult and courageous decisions a person can make is to stop and turn back. This is also true for retirement....Retiring from retirement, and reentering the workforce is not a popular solution. But as you've grown to understand over the years, what's right isn't always popular. There are a few telltale signs your retirement isn't working, and you'd be better served to turn around and reset the math. 1. 10% pace - If you're depleting your assets at a pace of 10% or more annually, you could be in big trouble....2. If you're going into debt - On the surface, it's not bad if your net worth is decreasing during retirement, but if the decrease comes from an increase in debt, you're in trouble....3. Change in family structure - When you retired, you likely made your decision based on a snapshot of your life. If your picture has changed, specifically in the event of death or divorce, reentering the workforce may be necessary."

Clash of the liberals: Warren, Sanders set for showdown -AFP/Yahoo News
"Leading liberals in the 2020 presidential race will command the spotlight in Tuesday's Democratic debate, and sparks could fly as Elizabeth Warren and Bernie Sanders battle over who will be torchbearer for the party's progressive wing. The two feisty US senators, personal friends who advocate similar left-leaning agendas but employ different styles, will be the top-ranked candidates on stage for the first evening of a two-night debate featuring 20 Democrats. Frontrunner Joe Biden takes the stage Wednesday night between senators Kamala Harris and Cory Booker, prominent African-Americans who have strongly criticized the former vice president on racial issues. The stakes are sky high. The debate is likely to winnow the sprawling field, perhaps by as much as half, ahead of the next debate in September as the party seeks its best nominee to challenge President Donald Trump next year....The Detroit showdown, broadcast by CNN, is expected to bring more heat than last month's opener, in part because of the expected clash between Biden, Harris and Booker....With major appeal among the party's liberal wing, Warren and Sanders share similar political platforms: both support universal health care, tuition-free public college, tax hikes on the wealthiest Americans, a $15-per-hour minimum wage and aggressive regulations on Wall Street."

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Gold last traded at $1,420 an ounce. Silver at $16.44 an ounce.

NEWS SUMMARY: Precious metal prices inched higher Monday on safe-haven buying and flat dollar. U.S. stocks traded flat ahead of trade negotiations between Washington and Beijing and the latest monetary policy decision from the Federal Reserve.

The Reasoning Behind Gold's Breakout -Holmes/Gold Money
"Gold's dramatic move above $1400 has caught the investment establishment by surprise...As well as being badly wrongfooted, investment managers have little understanding of the role of gold as money, believing it to have no role in the monetary system. They will have to undergo a rapid re-education. This article addresses their common misconceptions....Myth 1. Gold is no longer money - The first step towards understanding the role of gold is to recognize it is money. It still competes with today’s fiat currencies as money and predates them by many millennia....For ordinary people, gold will become an increasingly important refuge, given the prospect of an acceleration in monetary inflation as the world tips into recession...In the growing certainty that fiat currencies will die, gold can and will rapidly return to circulate as money....Myth 2. Gold doesn't pay interest - Only hoarded gold, like physical currency cash, does not pay interest. Gold is loaned and borrowed for interest, just like fiat currencies....In the days of the gold standard, when currencies were accepted as gold substitutes, the originary interest rate was that of gold...gold's originary rate was normally in the order of two or three per cent....Myth 3. Gold is expensive to store and insure - This is untrue...Fully insured annual storage fees for gold in LBMA approved vaults range between 0.01% and 0.018%. ETFs and mutual funds charge far higher rates for management, administration and custody....Myth 4. Gold has no intrinsic value - The financial concept of intrinsic value depends on the income stream generated by an asset... Gold pays interest on being loaned out, so it must have an intrinsic value....Conclusion...With governments everywhere itching to increase spending without raising taxes and as the global economy sinks into a trade and credit-cycle induced recession, budget deficits will fuel monetary inflation at a faster pace than seen before. Re-learning that gold is sound money is now the most urgent priority for all those charged with responsibility for other peoples' investments."

Fed Poised to Cut Rates for First Time Since Financial Crisis, Ending an Era -New York Times
"The Federal Reserve this week will most likely cut interest rates for the first time since 2008, when the economy was mired in a deep recession, as the central bank tries to keep a record economic expansion from petering out. The expected change, while likely to be small, will end an era of gradual rate increases intended to return the economy to a more 'normal' state in the wake of the Great Recession, when the Fed slashed rates to near zero as it tried to rescue the economy....The Fed's move on Wednesday may cheer President Trump, who has jawboned the central bank for a year over its 2018 rate increases, saying the economy would have gone up 'like a rocket' had the Fed not gotten it wrong....Yet in cutting now, the Fed is effectively ending its campaign to put economic policy back to normal. The shift confirms that interest rates will be much lower from now on, leaving the economy in a much more fragile state....'We think we're in the beginning of the end,' said Subadra Rajappa, head of United States rates strategy at Societe Generale. Her team expects a downturn, and further rate cuts, in 2020. Even if it keeps a recession at bay, the Fed is working against a perilous backdrop."

Trader Warns "The Fed Is Poised To Make Its Latest Policy Error" -Zero Hedge
"It's a busy week ahead, and, I guess, only one thing matters. The Fed is poised to make its latest policy error. The U.S. fares particularly poorly in recent reports. By some official measures it ranks worst in the developed world. So, naturally, as the FOMC views the world, anything they can do to get the stock market higher seems like just the prescription. They are going to trickle down on the little people because, in the words of Chairman Jerome Powell, the improvement in employment has, 'started to reach communities at the edge of the workforce.' It's starting to take hold, they are sure of it. Their models insist that it works....Stocks will continue to be attractive as the concept of earnings multiples becomes largely irrelevant in a world of negative interest rates. Something is better than nothing. But that hasn't and won't be a way to conduct social policy....Most interesting, is the inability of Treasury yields to move in either direction. Especially since we expect more QE from Europe imminently."

4 steps to stop the spread of disinformation online -Brookings Techtank
"The public discussion of disinformation often focuses on targeted candidates, without recognizing that disinformation actually targets voters...The effort goes farther than elections: it is about the information on whether to vaccinate children or boycott the NFL. What started with foreign adversaries now includes domestic groups, all fighting for control over what you believe to be true....If we, the public, can acknowledge ourselves at the targets, we can make ourselves less susceptible. Here are four simple ways to do your part in fighting back: 1. Know your algorithm - Get to know your own social media feed and algorithm, because disinformation targets us based on our online behavior and our biases...The result is we are only seeing information that an algorithm thinks we want to consume, which could be biased and distorted....2. Retrain your newsfeed - Once you have gotten to know your algorithm, you can change it to start seeing other points of view. Repeatedly seek out reputable sources of information that typically cater to viewpoints different than your own....3. Scrutinize your news sources - Start consuming information from social media critically. Social media is more than a news digest - it is social, and it is media....A more critical eye to the information in your feed and being able to look for key indicators of whether or not news is timely and accurate....4. Consider not sharing - Finally, think before you share. If you think that a 'news' article seems too sensational or extreme to be true, it probably is...It is time to stop waiting for someone to save us from disinformation, and to start saving ourselves."

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Gold last traded at $1,419 an ounce. Silver at $16.41 an ounce.

News Summary: Precious metal prices rose Friday on safe-haven buying despite a firmer dollar. U.S. stocks rose after strong earnings from big tech companies such as Alphabet and Intel, while the U.S. economy grew at 2% in the second quarter.

Two Scenarios For Gold Next Week As Fed Reveals Its Hand -Kitco
"Next week can play out one of two ways - the Federal Reserve introduces a 25-basis point rate cut and gold consolidates or the central bank doubles down on easing with a 50-basis point cut and gold rallies to new highs, analysts told Kitco News....All eyes turn to the Federal Reserve's rate decision next week, scheduled for Wednesday. Markets are currently pricing in a 78.6% chance of a 25-basis point cut and a 21.4% chance of a 50-basis point cut, according to the CME Group's FedWatch Tool. Markets are widely expecting for the Fed to begin its easing cycle, but what will matter the most is whether the central bank is embarking on a major easing cycle or just a couple of rate cuts....Overall, gold is expected to remain a great long-term buying opportunity to investors, 'Ultimately, any dip will be a buying opportunity for the longer-term … Gold is very well supported due to global central banks shifting to this easing tone,' said TD Securities commodity strategist Ryan McKay. The U.S. GDP data from Q2, which came in slightly better-than-expected, will play a role in the Fed's decision, especially when it comes to inflation....A major cut by 50 basis points would see gold rally to fresh multi-year highs and test the $1,454 levels and possibly higher, according to analysts."

Your 5-point plan for surviving the coming stock-market downturn -Marketwatch
"It's time to lighten up on stocks to prepare for the gathering storm. I've been telling subscribers of my stock newsletter Brush Up on Stocks to get out of dubious trades, get off margin, raise cash and be extra judicious about entering new positions...It does makes sense to tilt your portfolio to a more defensive posture....It's all about sentiment. Investor are getting too bullish...When investors are excessively bullish it means two things - both bad for stocks. 1. Investors are close to being fully invested. So they have less buying power on the sidelines to drive stocks higher. 2. Very bullish investors are overconfident and complacent. This makes them more prone to 'surprise.'....It's time for the following five tactics. 1. Raise cash. Cash is the cleanest defense against downturns....2. Favor 'high-quality' companies. Consider businesses that have good attributes like solid free cash flow and pricing power....3. Buy gold. Gold is the 'go to' safe haven asset that typically does well when market turmoil increases....4. Favor defensive areas. Two examples: Consumer staples and utilities....5. Stay in medium-term positions. It's too hard to time market moves because you have to get two decisions right: the buy and the sell."

U.S. economy misses Trump's 3% target in 2018 -Reuters
"The Commerce Department said on Friday that gross domestic product increased at a 2.9% rate last year, confirming an estimate which was published in March. The department's annual revisions to GDP data also showed the economy growing 2.5% in the 12 months through the fourth quarter of 2018, down from the previously reported 3.0%....The downgrade to the 2018 year-on-year measure to below 3% may well irk a commander-in-chief who has been quick to blame the U.S. Federal Reserve in particular for actions he sees as stymieing his growth agenda. The Fed meets on interest rates next week, and Trump has already been jawboning policymakers to cut borrowing costs, which he says would allow the economy to take off 'like a rocket ship.'....Economists estimate the economy's growth potential, or the pace at which it can expand without generating too much inflation, at around 2%....Growth in the first quarter of 2018 was revised up to a 2.5% annualized rate from 2.2%. Second-quarter growth, which prompted Trump's mission accomplished declaration, was cut to a 3.5% pace from a 4.2% rate. Growth in the third quarter was slashed to a 2.9% rate from a 3.4% pace. Fourth-quarter GDP growth was lowered to a 1.1% pace from a 2.2% rate."

College Spending Habits May Predict When 'Adulting' Starts -UofA News
"How well you manage your money in college may determine when you'll ultimately achieve 'adult identity,' according to a new study led by the University of Arizona. Researchers tracked a group of students from their fourth year of college to five years post-graduation. Participants were asked at three different points to self-report on financial behaviors such as spending, saving, budgeting and borrowing. Those who had good financial habits in their fourth year of college, or who showed marked improvement in their habits over the course of the study, were more likely to see themselves as adults at the end of the study period, when they were 26 to 31 years old....Although adult identity has traditionally been measured by milestones like getting married, having children and achieving financial independence, for this study researchers measured participants' perceived adult identity by asking them to rate, on a scale of 1 to 5, a series of statements, such as 'I feel that I have matured fully.'....It wasn't just the young adults' own financial behaviors that impacted whether or not they considered themselves adults. Study participants who reported that their romantic partners had good financial habits also scored higher on measures of adult identity....They found that those who practiced more responsible financial behaviors reported having fewer symptoms of depression and higher relationship satisfaction, both of which, in turn, seemed to promote the formation of adult identity."

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Gold last traded at $1,414 an ounce. Silver at $16.41 an ounce.

NEWS SUMMARY: Precious metal prices eased back Thursday on profit-taking and a flat dollar. U.S. stocks fell as Wall Street digested the latest batch of corporate earnings results along with comments from the top European Central Bank official.

Gold isn't necessarily an investment- it's life insurance -Dillian/Marketwatch
"I have always secretly wanted to work at a precious metals bullion dealer. I love gold, and silver and platinum. I love them philosophically, and I also just like shiny rocks...The most straightforward way to invest in silver is just to buy coins or bars....You can go to a bullion dealer, tell them you want a 100-ounce bar, and they will charge you the spot price of silver per ounce, times 100 ounces, plus a small markup....Gold prices have hit five-year highs, which did not get a lot of attention in the financial press. Precious metals improve the risk characteristics of your portfolio. In a 35/55/10 portfolio - with 35% equities, 55% bonds and 10% commodities - it's not unreasonable to allocate the entire commodities portion to gold and silver. Most other commodities have a pretty high cost of carry. And there's a general rule of thumb that you should have 5%-10% of your portfolio in gold, anyway....Here is the key point: Gold isn't an investment; it's a hedge. And it's not a hedge on your portfolio. It's a hedge on your life....People buy insurance on their houses, cars and even themselves, but they won't buy it on their portfolios. Seems strange to me."

Swiss America chairman Craig R. Smith has said the same. Mostly recently in his commentary, Gold: An Unchangeable Asset For A Changing World "...Own gold first for wealth preservation and secondly for its amazing growth and profit potential." Now is the time to hedge your life with physical gold and silver - which serves as trustworthy "wealth insurance."

Are central banks losing their big bet? -El Erian/FN London
"In recent years, central banks have made a large policy wager. They bet that the protracted use of unconventional and experimental measures would provide an effective bridge to more comprehensive measures that would generate high inclusive growth and minimize the risk of financial instability. But central banks have repeatedly had to double down, in the process becoming increasingly aware of the growing risks to their credibility, effectiveness, and political autonomy. Ironically, central bankers may now get a response from other policymaking entities, which, instead of helping to normalize their operations, would make their task a lot tougher....The Fed tried to support growth in indirect, experimental ways. By injecting liquidity using multiple means, it raised financial asset prices well above what the economy's fundamentals warranted. The Fed hoped that this would make certain segments of the population (asset holders) feel richer, enticing them to spend more and encouraging companies to invest more. But such 'wealth effects' and 'animal spirits' proved quite feeble. So the Fed felt compelled to do more of the same, which led to a host of unintended consequences and risks of collateral damage....With central-bank activism intensifying, the gap between asset prices and underlying economic and corporate fundamentals is likely to widen further. Central banks bet that greater activism on the part of other policymakers would be their salvation. But these days, they are facing an increasing probability of a lose-lose proposition....Like seasoned gamblers, central bankers may soon discover that not all bets pay off over the longer term."

When Grandparents Help Hold It All Together -New York Times
"Sociologists have developed a name for this contribution: 'intensive grandparenting.' It refers not to a particular number of hours, but to a commitment to providing regular child care, often accompanied by housekeeping or other tasks....These arrangements - leaving aside those heroes actually raising their grandchildren - differ from the way we've typically pictured grandparenthood. 'There's this stereotype: Ice cream! Fun trips to the zoo!' said Jennifer Utrata, a sociologist at the University of Puget Sound who's researching intensive grandparenting. 'But there's all this invisible labor behind the scenes.' How much? ...A recent study reports that about half of young children, a third of those in elementary school and even 20 percent of teenagers spend at least some time with grandparents in a typical week. Madonna Harrington Meyer, a sociologist at Syracuse University and author of 'Grandmothers at Work,' analyzed federal data for grandparents aged 51 to 70 who had jobs, most working full-time. About 45 percent had provided care for grandchildren during the previous two years, a proportion she expects to increase....Experts worry more about people who cut back on work hours, retire too early or otherwise imperil their own financial security to provide intensive grandparenting. Ms. Hewitt, for instance, left her job at a university child care center and applied for Social Security benefits five years ago, giving herself an income while granny-nannying. Had she waited and applied now, she acknowledged, she would receive $1,000 more a month....Attention, parents: Letting your parents know how much you appreciate their intensive grandparenting goes a long way toward maintaining or re-establishing joy."

What Teenagers Learn When They Start a Business -Wall Street Journal
"For teenage entrepreneurs, running a summer business can teach a lot of lessons. Students, of course, are taking a chance when they launch ventures of their own instead of hunting for jobs, whether for the summer or the whole year. And in doing so, they're in for a crash course in entrepreneurship. They must learn about dealing with customer complaints, adjusting a flawed business model and more. Here's what some student entrepreneurs learned about business - and, sometimes, life....Anthony Mollo, Senior, Skyline High School, Ann Arbor, Mich., Business: Rescue Lawn Care, Revenue: Over $17,000 in 2018 season, Profit: $8,700. How he did it: Mr. Mollo had mowed lawns over the summer since middle school and over the years had earned about $4,000 in total. At the end of the 2017 season, he decided to see how far marketing could take the business. He spent about $200 on postcards - and ended up with so many clients that he hired 10 students over the season, with two or three assisting on a typical job. LESSONS LEARNED; Make a good estimate: At the start, Mr. Mollo says, he was a 'terrible estimator' and failed to anticipate things that could go wrong. In one early estimate, for instance, he didn't account for the time to buy and unbag mulch, among other things...Now, he says, he asks more questions when developing an estimate and builds in contingencies for the unexpected....Bridgette Kim, Senior, Our Lady of Good Counsel High School, Olney, Md., Business: tutoring, Revenue: $8,900 since 2016, Profit: $7,500. How she did it: Ms. Kim began tutoring in math and science as a summer business after her freshman year. She initially helped middle-school students, and then shifted her focus to high-schoolers, charging $20 an hour. She stopped tutoring at the start of her senior year to focus on college applications. LESSONS LEARNED; Be prepared to sacrifice: When two students complained that they hadn't been helped, Ms. Kim developed a money-back policy and refunded them each $40. But in the end, the students kept working with her. One told Ms. Kim that initially he didn't believe she could help him and wasn't paying full attention. When he buckled down, he picked up the material, she says. The other student appreciated Ms. Kim's hourly rate and that she went over the allotted time without charging more. Adapt to your customers: When Ms. Kim saw students losing concentration, she modified her approach. After explaining lessons, she asked students to summarize to make sure they had understood the material. She also found a session of more than an hour was counterproductive."

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Gold last traded at $1,423 an ounce. Silver at $16.62 an ounce.

NEWS SUMMARY: Precious metal prices rose Wednesday on safe-haven buying and a flat dollar. U.S. stocks traded mixed as Wall Street pored through a slew of corporate earnings reports while trade worries persisted.

Gold rises on expected economic stimulus -Reuters
"Gold prices rose on Wednesday on expectations of monetary policy easing from leading central banks to shore up the global economy, though a stronger dollar curbed gains...Gold prices rose on Wednesday on expectations of monetary policy easing from leading central banks to shore up the global economy, though a stronger dollar curbed gains....Futures remain 100% priced for a rate cut of 25 basis points from the Fed next week and even imply an 18% chance of 50 basis points....Among other precious metals, silver gained 0.8% to $16.52."

Robert Mueller hearing has been a 'disaster' for Democrats -Fox News
"'Fox News Sunday' anchor Chris Wallace said former Special Counsel Robert Mueller's House hearing has turned into a 'disaster' for Democrats and for the former FBI director's reputation. Responding after the first few hours of the hearing before the House Judiciary Committee hearing, Wallace said Mueller offered little defense of his investigation amid repeated attacks from Republicans. He said Mueller has not put forth much 'testimony' or new information. 'I think this has been a disaster for the Democrats and I think it's been a disaster for the reputation of Robert Mueller. He has seemed very uncertain with his brief. He doesn't seem to know things that are in the report,' Wallace told Bret Baier and Martha MacCallum during Fox News Channel's all-day coverage of the House hearings. 'Over and over, Mueller just sits silent and allows the attacks from the Republicans to sweep over him and says nothing.' Mueller was frequently tripped up and forced to ask lawmakers to repeat their questions during his rapid-fire questioning on Capitol Hill, though he reportedly prepared at length for the hearings. At one point, he even said he wasn't familiar with Fusion GPS, the opposition research firm behind the controversial anti-Trump dossier....Wallace said Mueller's performance raises questions about the degree to which he was actually 'in charge of the investigation.'"

JPMorgan: We Believe The Dollar Could Lose Its Status As World's Reserve Currency -Zero Hedge
"Perhaps it is not a coincidence then that in light of the growing number of mentions of MMT and various other terminal, destructive monetary policies that have been proposed to kick the current financial system the can just a little bit longer, that the topic of longevity of reserve currency status is once again becoming all the rage, and none other than JPMorgan's Private Bank ask in this month's investment strategy note whether 'the dollar's 'exorbitant privilege' is coming to an end?'....'The U.S. dollar (USD) has been the world's dominant reserve currency for almost a century. As such, many investors today, even outside the United States, have built and become comfortable with sizable USD overweights in their portfolios. However, we believe the dollar could lose its status as the world's dominant currency due to structural reasons as well as cyclical impediments. As such, diversifying dollar exposure by placing a higher weighting on other currencies in developed markets and in Asia, as well as precious metals makes sense today....In fact, the dominant international currency has changed many times throughout history going back thousands of years as the world's economic center has shifted.'....Recent data on currency reserve holdings among global central banks suggests this shift may already be under way. As a share of overall central bank reserves, the USD's role has been declining ever since the Great Recession...Central banks across the globe are also adding to gold reserves at their strongest pace on record. 2018 saw the strongest demand for gold from central banks since 1971 and a rolling four-quarter sum of gold purchases is the strongest on record. To us, this makes sense: gold is a stable source of value with thousands of years of trust among humans supporting it."

Where Americans are putting their money right now -Fox Business
"Stocks have long been a favorite investment for Americans, but according to a new survey, they are putting their money elsewhere...Thirty-one percent of survey respondents named real estate as their favored investment for money that they wouldn't need for 10 years or more. Stocks ran a distant second, with 20 percent of respondents naming stocks their top pick for holding periods of more than a decade. Cash investments, such as savings accounts and CDs, finished third at 19 percent, while gold and other precious metals earned 11 percent. Americans picked bonds as their top long-term investment 7 percent of the time, while bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies were favored by 4 percent....For the two groups with incomes of at least $50,000, stocks were their top pick 28 percent and 29 percent of the time, just behind real estate. For the two groups earning less than $50,000 annually...showed a higher preference for cash investments such as savings accounts and CDs (22 percent), as well as for gold and other precious metals (12 to 17 percent)."

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Gold last traded at $1,421 an ounce. Silver at $16.47 an ounce.

NEWS SUMMARY: Precious metal prices traded steady Tuesday despite a stronger dollar. U.S. stocks were lifted as investors cheered strong quarterly numbers from companies like Coca-Cola and United Technologies.

Gold's Shine Spreads to Other Precious Metals -Wall Street Journal
"Gold has recovered some of its former shine lately. Silver and platinum have been dull by comparison, but if history is any guide they are likely to regain their luster too. The price of silver, as measured by futures contracts traded on the New York Mercantile Exchange, has surged by 8.3% over the past two weeks. This may be a sign that gold's impressive rally over the past year - its price has gone up 16%, compared with roughly 6% for the S&P 500 - is finally spreading to other precious metals. Part of the yellow metal's jump is explained by extraordinary demand for haven assets. Investors have been fretting about the risk of a global economic slowdown as well as an escalation in the U.S.-China trade spat. But much of it also has to do with the Federal Reserve's policy. And that should eventually boost all precious metals. Gold tends to move in the opposite direction to these bonds' yields, which have plummeted since the beginning of the year. This is because the Fed has led investors to believe that it will soon lower rates - most now expect the first rate cut in a decade to happen later this month. What is more surprising is that the other two top-traded precious metals, silver and platinum, have lagged behind so much behind. Earlier this month, the ratio of gold to silver closed at a 24-year high....In the case of silver in particular, the link to gold appears too strong to be ignored for long."

Is This What Has Got the Fed So Spooked? -Zero Hedge
"Over the last week, multiple Fed officials have surfaced to suggest the Fed needs to start cutting interest rates right now. Indeed, on Thursday, John Williams, who runs the NY Fed (the branch in charge of market operations) suggested the Fed needs to cut rates to ZERO again. Not 2%, or 1%, ZERO. This is happening at a time when economic data is rebounding, unemployment is below 4% and GDP growth is north of 3%. So what exactly is going on? What does the Fed know that has it so terrified, because it's obviously not the US economy. 1) Deutsche Bank (DB) is imploding. Sitting atop over $49 trillion in derivatives, DB is like Lehman Brothers 2.0....2) China's banking system is freezing. China experienced its first financial institution failure in 21 years in June. Depositors and creditors lost 30% of their deposits in the process. This is EXTREMELY similar to what happened to the US credit markets n 2008. And finally... 3) The Everything Bubble has burst. Treasuries are the bedrock of the current financial system and their yields represent the risk-free rate of return against which all risk assets are priced. So when the Fed created a bubble in these bonds, it created a bond in EVERYTHING. If the Fed cannot get this situation under control, there's $555 trillion in derivatives at stake. Yes, TRILLION with a T. Something BIG is coming and the Fed knows it."

New Budget Deal Puts Final Nail in the Tea-Party Coffin -National Review
"President Trump and congressional leaders struck a deal that will raise the discretionary-spending caps by $320 billion over two years and offset less than one-quarter of those costs. The budget deal essentially repeals the final two years of the 2011 Budget Control Act and raises the baseline for future discretionary spending by nearly $2 trillion over the decade. This represents a fitting conclusion of the Budget Control Act - the crown jewel of the 2011 'tea-party Congress.' The decade-long shredding of these hard-fought budget constraints mirrors the shredding of Republican credibility on fiscal responsibility....The new 'tea party' House majority declared an end to deficit politics as usual. The new majority quickly banned pork-barrel earmarks and trimmed the 2011 appropriations bills that had been carried over from the previous year....The return of trillion-dollar deficits has been met with a collective shrug from Republican leaders. The conventional wisdom among Washington Republicans is that populist conservative voters no longer care about spending or deficits and that Democrats and hostile media would savage any attempts to rein in government. So the debt limit is now regularly suspended, and the final two years of the Budget Control Act, 2020 and 2021, will see a spending-cap increase of $320 billion with only minimal offsets....The tea party burst into Washington pledging spending restraint, balanced budgets, and accountable government. Even the possibility of defaulting on the national debt was an acceptable price of reform. Roughly a decade later, budget deficits are again reaching $1 trillion, spending is soaring, Obamacare remains on the books, and Republicans are raising the debt limit and eviscerating their lead accomplishment, the Budget Control Act. With Republicans like these, who needs Democrats?"

Has socialism already failed in the United States? -The Hill
"How many nations have already embraced socialism's promise of paradise but instead experienced the effects of socialism's disastrous reality?....The career politician's purging of regulations, promises of lavish rather than affordable home ownership and legislation forcing risky loan practices to 'low- and moderate-income families' resulted in, according to the FCIR, 'about four million families … [losing] their homes to foreclosure and another four and a half million … [slipping] into the foreclosure process or ... seriously behind on their mortgage payments.' Isn't this a clear example in recent memory that affected us all of socialism's promise of paradise but instead delivered socialism's disastrous reality? So much of the rhetoric from our career politicians professes the socialist promise of paradise to elicit campaign contributions and votes with candidates pledging free education, free housing, free health care, promises of rewards without labor, promises of spending without expense and promises of a Shangri-La existence supported by the government....With this experience, do we want to support contenders who would expose our health care, education, housing and other social infrastructures to the financial consequences, on our shoulders, of the 'disastrous reality of socialism?'"

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Gold last traded at $1,426 an ounce. Silver at $16.41 an ounce.

NEWS SUMMARY: Precious metal traded steady Monday despite a firmer dollar. U.S. stocks traded mixed ahead of a big earnings week and Fed rate policy uncertainty.

Forget 'FAANG' stocks, technical analyst touts 'BAANG' stocks for a new, scarier era -CNBC
"'BAANG' is the new 'FAANG.' So says technical analyst John Roque at Wolfe Research, who believes a group of gold miners he coined as BAANG - Barrick Gold, AngloGold, Agnico Eagle Mines, Franco-Nevada, Gold Fields - are better plays than mega-cap FAANG names as they might have reached their peaks and started losing steam. 'We made this index BAANG in homage to the fading FAANG,' Roque said on CNBC's 'Squawk Box' on Monday. These gold miners are 'much like gold.'....Gold is trading above $1,400 for the first time since 2013 and it is up more than 12% year-to-date. The metal's strength is backed by safe-haven buying amid geopolitical uncertainties as well as the Federal Reserve's openness to rate cuts this year. The BAANG stocks are up a whopping 42% since May 10, the analyst said. Meanwhile, Facebook, Netflix and Google's parent Alphabet are still in the red for the trailing 12 months...Many market participants said Big Tech which led much of the current bull market are starting to lose their characteristic mojo amid the trade tensions and a global economic slowdown."

Will Mideast war engulf the United States? -Ponte/WND
"Many fear a shooting war might soon ignite in the Persian Gulf and shut down its 21-mile-wide Strait of Hormuz, through which daily ships roughly one-fifth of the world’s oil supply, about 21 million barrels. Iran controls the eastern side of this 'jugular vein' of the oil-dependent global economy. As President Trump's sanctions to stop Iran's nuclear weapons program have devastated the rogue nation's oil-based economy, it has engaged in increasingly provocative actions. In recent days, Iran has seized two British-related oil tankers. In the multinational oil business, this could mean that the United Kingdom has invested in both ships and/or their cargoes...Iran captured the crews of these tankers, neither of which included a single British or American citizen....In 'America Engulfed,' a chapter in our book 'The Great Debasement,' Craig R. Smith and I explain how incredibly vulnerable our navy could be in the Persian Gulf. We also explained that in 1971, when President Richard Nixon broke the last link between gold and the value of the dollar, he did so after making a deal with Saudi Arabia that it would sell its oil only for U.S. dollars … in exchange for the U.S. militarily defending this global center of Islam with our military and the blood of our young. This is why Thomas Jefferson warned against 'entangling alliances.' By this shift from a gold standard to an oil or petrodollar standard, the dollar remained the world reserve currency. Our dollar and economy depend on the Persian Gulf. Several Iranian leaders are reportedly eager to enter into new negotiations to end U.S. trade sanctions. Trouble is, President Trump would be dealing with a medieval Islamist regime - the world's leading sponsor of terrorism - with a theocratic regime whose leaders are 'Twelvers,' who believe that through global apocalyptic war they can turn Earth into an Islamic planet."

From baby boomers to Gen X: America's retirement crisis by the numbers -USA Today
"Thousands of people retire every day, and many don't have the savings they need to last the rest of their lives. When that well runs dry, they'll need to lean on their family members to support them or seek government assistance to cover their basic living expenses. It's a fate thousands of Americans are already experiencing, and based on data from the latest Northwestern Mutual Planning & Progress survey, tens of thousands more are set to join them in the coming decades. Northwestern Mutual's 2019 study focused on baby boomers and Generation X - the two generations next in line for retirement - and the results showed both groups have work to do. Of the 10,000 baby boomers turning 65 every day, 17% have less than $5,000 in retirement savings, and 20% have less than $5,000 in personal savings outside of a retirement account. These numbers are even higher for Generation X, with 21% having less than $5,000 in retirement savings and 22% having less than $5,000 in personal savings....Freeing up cash isn't always easy, but you must prioritize retirement savings, even if it means foregoing other more enjoyable things. Limit your discretionary purchases, cancel subscriptions you don't use, and consider downsizing your home to reduce your current expenses or consider moving to an area or state with a lower cost of living. The future looks bleak for many of America's retirees and older working adults. It may be too late for some of them to save enough for their dream retirement, but with some planning and a frugal mindset, you may still be able to achieve a secure retirement."

2020 Candidates Keep Ignoring The Same Big Issue -Daily Caller
"The rapidly expanding national debt has seemingly been a virtual non-issue so far in the 2020 presidential campaign. None of the 20 Democratic candidates taking part in the debates later in July touch the national debt issue on their campaign websites, a Daily Caller News Foundation review of their sites found. The 'Promises Kept' section on President Donald Trump's reelection website makes no mention of the national debt. The candidates aren't the only ones ignoring the issue, either. None of the moderators for the first two Democratic presidential debates asked any questions about the national debt....Neither political party is in a particularly strong position to campaign on addressing the national debt. The national debt grew by almost $9 trillion during the eight years that Democratic frontrunner Joe Biden served as vice president under former President Barack Obama....Trump repeatedly warned during his 2016 campaign that America's expanding national debt posed a threat to the country, but the debt has only continued to grow during Trump's presidency."

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Gold last traded at $1,426 an ounce. Silver at $16.19 an ounce.

NEWS SUMMARY: Precious metals prices eased Friday on profit-taking and a firmer dollar. U.S. stocks traded mixed despite a strong quarterly report from Microsoft.

Silver rallies to its highest in over a year, plays 'catch up' to gold's gains -Marketwatch
"Silver prices marked a fifth straight day of gains session gain on Thursday, for their highest finish in more than a year. Tight supply concerns, along with strength in gold, may help lift prices for silver back to levels not seen since 2016. 'We were overdue for a rally in silver as the gold/silver ratio was sitting near historic highs,' said Chris Gaffney, president of world markets at TIAA Bank. 'In short, silver had some 'catching up to do' as it was left out of the overall rally in precious metals during the first half of 2019.'....Year to date silver prices have climbed by 4%, underperforming gold which has seen an 11% rise so far this year. 'Gold has a pretty good head start on silver during the first half of 2019,' said Gaffney, who does not expect silver to surpass gold's overall performance in 2019. Silver, however, 'will outperform gold over the remainder of the year,' he said....Near-term the key for silver will be if gold breaks above $1,450 an ounce, and if gold moves to $1,500 and above, it will send silver up to test its next technical level around $20 an ounce, he said."

Jim Rogers Warns: "Worst Bear Market" Is Coming -Zero Hedge
"On a recent call with ETMarkets.com, no-nonsense economic guru Jim Rogers restated his concern that a bear market was on the way, and investors should be on the lookout for small signs to avoid another crisis like 2008. Although Rogers could not give a timeline for the bear market to arrive, he did say that it will be the 'worst in my lifetime,' a prediction he's stuck by for a while now, and the key to spotting a market correction lies within smaller markets. Rogers told Economic Times, 'I am not investing in US stock market because I expect problems to come in the next year or two. I am not buying shares. In the US market, some of the stocks like Apple and Google go up every day. They never go down, which is a dangerous sign in any stock markets...It has been over 10 years since we had a serious bear market in the United States. I would suspect by the end of this year or next year, it will start. These things always start small, where people are not looking and then they work to the major markets, and then you see them on the major news.'....Rogers also told ETMarkets.com that he believes a trade deal will arrive soon between the United States and China amid escalating tariffs, but it may not mean much as even more trade wars will begin, contributing to the catastrophic bear market scenario Rogers mentioned above."

The Three 'D's Of Doom: Debt, Default, Depression -Smith/Of Two Minds
"'Borrowing our way out of debt' generates the three Ds of Doom: debt leads to default which ushers in Depression. Let's start by defining Economic Depression: a Depression is a Recession that isn't fixed by conventional fiscal and monetary stimulus. Here's why we're heading into a Depression: debt exhaustion...Costs for big-ticket essentials such as housing, healthcare and government services are soaring while wages stagnate or decline in purchasing power. When wages are stagnant and big-ticket items are soaring in cost, that leaves less available to service more debt...Marginal borrowers default, and the resulting losses collapse marginal lenders....Meanwhile, labor's share of the economy (wages and salaries) has been in structural decline the entire 21st century. There's less - a lot less - available to fund more borrowing after those stagnating wages pay for rent or a mortgage/property taxes, healthcare, childcare, student loans, etc."

The Strange Political Silence On Elder Care -Washington Monthly
"Millions of middle-aged women struggle to care for ailing older relatives, and the crisis is only getting worse. So why is no one talking about it? Alexis Baden-Mayer, a freckled forty-five-year-old, put her house on Airbnb three years ago and moved with her husband and two kids into her parents’ home in Alexandria, Virginia. Her mom, who has Alzheimer's disease, was no longer able to take care of her dad, who had suffered from heart failure. 'I didn’t really have a good idea of what I was getting into, quite honestly,' she said, reflecting on what a truly frank conversation with her husband would have sounded like: 'What do you think of living with my parents for about ten years while their health declines and they die?'....Baden-Mayer is one of about thirty-four million Americans providing unpaid care to an older adult, often a family member. Most of these caregivers are middle-aged, and most are women. They are individually bearing most of the burden of one of America's most pressing societal challenges: how to care for a population of frail elders that is ballooning in size....Most people assume that Medicare will cover the type of long-term personal care older people often need; it does not. Neither does standard private health insurance...So the safety net you thought would catch you in old age is less like a net and more like a staircase you get pushed down, bumping along until you've impoverished yourself enough to hit Medicaid at the bottom....Meanwhile, the cost of hiring a home health aide to take care of a frail parent can add up to $50,000 or more per year....Yet even though American women today are politically organized and running for office in record numbers, elder care remains widely viewed as a purely personal matter. You could be a news junkie, following the 2020 race closely, and have heard nothing about it. Why is that? And could long-term care go from being a sleeper issue to one that boosts a candidate out of the 2020 pack?....One lawmaker who feels strongly about an issue could be worth twenty who merely support it.....'You can divide the world of politicians into two groups,' said Howard Gleckman, a senior fellow at the Tax Policy Center. 'It's not Democrats and Republicans, it's people who have been caregivers and people who haven't.'"

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Gold last traded at $1,435 an ounce. Silver at $16.27 an ounce.

NEWS SUMMARY: Precious metal prices rose near 6-year highs on safe-haven buying and a flat dollar. U.S. stocks fell for a 3rd day on disappointing earnings; Netflix shares plunge 10%.

Confidence and euphoria will turn to fear and despair -Gold Switzerland
"Decades of investment gains, which are virtually all due to credit expansion, have led investors to believe that markets always go up in the long run and also that they have magical money making skills....What few realize is that we are now in the very final innings of an investment game that will end badly. Major stock markets in many countries, including the Dow and S&P, are now finishing their bull market moves, both short term and long term. The fundamental position has been indicating high risk for a while and the technical picture is now confirming that we are ending a major secular bull market that will turn into a catastrophic secular bear market which will be devastating for the world...Confidence and euphoria will turn to fear and despair. Once the market realizes that this time central banks have no weapons left in their armory and that money printing or lower rates have no effect, there will be real panic....Since gold broke above $1,350 just under a month ago, it has consolidated around the $1,400 level. The next target is $1,600 to $1,750. Once gold breaks out of the current trading range, we will see a fast move up to that level. Gold will reach multiples of the current price, but we are not invested in gold for the coming major price move but for protection against the massive risks in all financial markets and in the financial system. Gold is insurance and gold is wealth preservation."

The Deceptive Green Dirty Deal -Ponte/WND
"To see the left's real motive in using the climate issue, as Craig R. Smith and I did in our book 'Money, Morality & The Machine,' you need only look at leftist climate bureaucrats of the United Nations. 'We redistribute de facto the world's wealth by climate policy,' said Dr. Ottmar Endenhofer, one of the heads of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) that operates under U.N. auspices. The wealth of the richest nations, especially the United States, is to be redistributed to poorer nations, with the U.N. middleman getting a fat cut of this $100 trillion transfer of wealth. You will notice that many scientists agree that, even if our planet were warming, such climate change can almost certainly be cooled by inexpensive geoengineering such as sprinkling the upper atmosphere with finely powdered sulfur, which would fall safely to Earth within two years. During those two years, this sulfur would reduce the size of water droplets at the top of oceanic clouds, increasing their albedo (reflectivity) and bouncing a tiny fraction of the sun's warming rays back into space. This could cheaply be used as a thermostat to regulate Earth's temperature....The real agenda is a 'transformation' of the global economy, said head of climate change policy at the United Nations, Costa Rican diplomat Christiana Figueres...And what economic system is she using the climate issue to change? Capitalism, especially American-guided capitalism."

The Great Crypto Heist -Roubini/Project-Syndicate
"Cryptocurrencies have given rise to an entire new criminal industry, comprising unregulated offshore exchanges, paid propagandists, and an army of scammers looking to fleece retail investors. Yet, despite the overwhelming evidence of rampant fraud and abuse, financial regulators and law-enforcement agencies remain asleep at the wheel....Cryptocurrencies are routinely launched and traded outside the domain of official financial oversight, where avoidance of compliance costs is advertised as a source of efficiency. The result is that crypto land has become an unregulated casino, where unchecked criminality runs riot. This is not mere conjecture. Some of the biggest crypto players may be openly involved in systematic illegality. Consider BitMEX, an unregulated trillion-dollar exchange of crypto derivatives that is domiciled in the Seychelles but active globally. Its CEO, Arthur Hayes, boasted openly that the BitMEX business model involves peddling to 'degenerate gamblers' (meaning clueless retail investors) crypto derivatives with 100-to-one leverage....Of course, it is no surprise that an unregulated market would become the playground of con artists, criminals, and snake-oil salesmen. Crypto trading has created a multi-billion-dollar industry, comprising not just the exchanges, but also propagandists posing as journalists, opportunists talking up their own financial books to peddle 'shitcoin,' and lobbyists seeking regulatory exemptions. Behind it all is an emerging criminal racket that would put the Cosa Nostra to shame. It is high time that US and other law-enforcement agencies stepped in. So far, regulators have been asleep at the wheel as the crypto cancer has metastasized. According to one study, 80% of 'initial coin offerings' in 2017 were scams."

Bitcoin Loses Almost a Third of Its Value as Libra Hype Fades -Wall Street Journal
"Facebook Inc.'s struggle to convince lawmakers it can create a viable cryptocurrency is rubbing off on bitcoin. The world's most popular cryptocurrency has fallen sharply as regulatory scrutiny of Facebook's ambitious plan to release its own digital coin, called Libra, has spoiled bitcoin's big rally this year. The price of bitcoin recently slid to about $9,100, according to research site CoinDesk. Before bouncing back later Wednesday, it had lost almost a third of its value after trading above $13,000 a week ago, which was near its high for the year....Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell last week said he had 'serious concerns' about the social-media giant's plans. President Trump criticized bitcoin and said Libra would have 'little standing or dependability.' On Monday, Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin raised national security concerns about Libra and said people in the past had tried to use cryptocurrencies for illegal means....Facebook executive David Marcus told the Senate Banking Committee on Tuesday plans for Libra won't move forward until the company has 'fully addressed regulatory concerns and received appropriate approvals.'"

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Gold last traded at $1,423 an ounce. Silver at $15.97 an ounce.

NEWS SUMMARY: Precious metal prices rose over 1% Wednesday on safe-haven buying and a weaker dollar. U.S. stocks drifted lower as the corporate earnings season began with mixed results and included downbeat growth projections.

Trading a Currency War: Stay Clear, Buy Gold, Deutsche Bank Says -Bloomberg
"Should U.S. foreign-exchange policy spur a global currency conflict, Deutsche Bank AG sees gold as the ultimate victor. The possibility of U.S. FX intervention has created some buzz among Wall Street analysts after President Donald Trump took aim at China and Europe this month, saying they're playing a 'big currency manipulation game.' A U.S. attempt to weaken the dollar - a step it hasn't taken since 2000 - could prompt other nations to combat the intervention, sparking a 'true currency war' probably involving the yuan and euro, according to Deutsche Bank strategist Alan Ruskin. 'With a currency war most likely to be fought on USD/CNY and EUR/USD terrain, one approach would be to steer clear of the direct conflict,' Ruskin wrote in a note Monday. 'By far the most direct and simple way to trade the complexities of a currency war is by going long gold.' Gold has climbed 10% this year amid deepening U.S.-China trade tensions and climbing wagers on a Federal Reserve rate cut. The metal touched a six-year high last month, and hedge funds are close to their most bullish levels since 2017....Trump may get his wish for a weaker dollar if greenback sales accompanied monetary easing, Ruskin wrote. The Fed is widely expected to lower rates later this month."

Insanity: Now even junk bonds have negative yields -Black/Sovereign Man
"75 years ago this month, a group of 744 delegates from around the world gathered at the very posh Mount Washington Hotel in New Hampshire to build a brand new global financial system. They called it the Bretton Woods system, named for the town in New Hampshire where they gathered. And their central idea was that the value of the US dollar would be fixed to gold at a rate of $35 per troy ounce, while every other currency would be fixed to the US dollar....During the roughly quarter-century that the Bretton Woods system was in place, banking crises were almost nonexistent. Recessions were rare...Then it all came to a screeching halt in 1971. The US government wanted the flexibility to print as much money as it needed without being forced to maintain the gold standard. So the whole system collapsed, practically overnight...The effects have been pretty disastrous...(It's ironic that, back in 1944, the price of a room at the Mount Washington was $18. Today it's over $250.)....Perhaps most of all, we now regularly witness some of the most extreme financial anomalies imaginable. And one of the most obvious examples of this is negative interest rates....Just a few days ago the insanity reached a whole new level. According to the Wall Street Journal, there are now some JUNK BONDS in Europe that have negative yields....It's possible this madness could continue for a while longer. Or it could end tomorrow...That's why I think makes sense to take sensible steps to protect yourself… no matter what happens next. That's why I own gold. Gold is still one of the only asset classes in the world that's not anywhere near an all-time high (unlike stocks, bonds and real estate). In fact, relative to what's going on in the world, gold is downright cheap. Gold is something people tend to buy in times of uncertainty… and right now, there is a lot of uncertainty."

Ray Dalio says gold will be a top investment during upcoming 'paradigm shift' for global markets -CNBC
"Hedge fund kingpin Ray Dalio is seeing a case for gold as central banks get more aggressive with policies that devalue currencies and are about to cause a 'paradigm shift' in investing. Dalio, founder of the world's largest hedge fund, wrote in a LinkedIn post that investors have been pushed into stocks and other assets that have equity-like returns. As a result, too many people are holding these types of securities and likely to face diminishing returns. 'I think these are unlikely to be good real returning investments and that those that will most likely do best will be those that do well when the value of money is being depreciated and domestic and international conflicts are significant, such as gold' the Bridgewater Associates leader said...'For this reason, I believe that it would be both risk-reducing and return-enhancing to consider adding gold to one's portfolio. I will soon send out an explanation of why I believe that gold is an effective portfolio diversifier.'....Investors, Dalio said, are going to need to change their mindset about what will work following the longest bull market run in Wall Street history. 'In paradigm shifts, most people get caught overextended doing something overly popular and get really hurt,' he wrote. 'On the other hand, if you're astute enough to understand these shifts, you can navigate them well or at least protect yourself against them.'"

Now It's a Climate 'Emergency' -Editors/Wall Street Journal
"When President Trump declared a national 'emergency' in February to take money from the Pentagon to build his border wall, these columns warned he was setting a precedent that Democrats would exploit. Well, that day has arrived, as Democrats last week introduced a resolution in Congress declaring a national emergency due to climate change. Senator Bernie Sanders and Representative Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez introduced a joint resolution declaring that the climate Apocalypse is nigh, and demanding 'a national, social, industrial, and economic mobilization of the resources and labor of the United States at a massive-scale.' Some commentators are calling the resolution 'symbolic,' noting a contradictory provision that reads 'nothing in this concurrent resolution constitutes a declaration of a national emergency for purposes of . . . any special or extraordinary power.'...'The national emergency is not the border, it's the climate,' Mr. Blumenauer said on a press call. A Sanders spokesperson also drew the comparison, noting that, in contrast to Mr. Trump's 'phony national emergencies,' the Sanders resolution addresses a genuine 'existential' threat. Nothing will happen this Congress, but the resolution's real point is to put down a marker for the Democrat they expect will be President in 2021. If he or she declares an emergency as Mr. Trump did, it could be used to justify extralegal executive actions that Congress has refused to pass....The good news is the federal judiciary might check this trend. Mr. Trump was angry that Congress wouldn't give him more than $1.38 billion in wall funding and used his emergency declaration to reallocate several billion more dollars for the wall. But this was a stretch of executive power that even a dozen Senate Republicans voted to overturn....The Trump Administration is appealing, and the legal merits are debatable given the ambiguity of 'emergency' in the law. But conservatives who applaud Mr. Trump's run around Congress should think again. Progressives will exploit the precedent for their own purposes."

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Gold last traded at $1,411 an ounce. Silver at $15.67 an ounce.

NEWS SUMMARY: Precious metal prices traded mixed Tuesday on mild profit-taking and a firmer dollar. U.S. stocks slipped after President Trump said trade progress between China and the U.S. has a 'long way to go'.

Recession fears rise for middle-class families -CNBC
"Middle-class Americans are less optimistic about their economic prospects than they were just six months ago, according to a new report from CUNA Mutual Group...They graded their chances of achieving the American dream as a 'C,' down from a 'B-minus' in the fall, the insurance provider found. Close to half were increasingly concerned about an upcoming recession. A separate report by Allianz Life found that 48% said they fear a major recession, up from 46% in the first quarter of 2019 and 44% one year ago. 'Americans keep hearing that this is the longest economic expansion in history,' said Steven Rick, CUNA Mutual's chief economist. 'People's expectations are that we are due' for a recession....'This should be a wake-up call to families to start shoring up their finances now, whether that takes the form of cutting spending, reassessing their savings to avoid having to cut into their retirement to stay afloat or even refinancing a mortgage if that'll put them in a better position,' Rick said."

A Gigantic Gold Coin Makes Its Way to Wall Street -Wall Street Journal
"Richard Hayes plans to leave a $45 million coin on the streets of Manhattan all day Tuesday, but he isn't particularly worried about a thief carting it off. The coin - with Queen Elizabeth's profile pressed onto one side and a mid-hop kangaroo on the other - is beyond the wiles of the average pickpocket. It measures nearly 32 inches in diameter and is almost 5 inches thick. Oh, and it weighs about 2,200 pounds...Mr. Hayes is the chief executive of the Perth Mint, one of the world's largest gold refiners. He flew to the U.S. from Australia with the world's largest gold coin in tow, on a publicity tour....The price of gold surged to a six-year high this month and stands at $1,413.50 a troy ounce as of Monday. Its run-up since the end of May has added about $3.3 million to the value of the giant coin, if it were to be sold simply for its weight in gold....One of the six Big Maple Leaf coins made by the Royal Canadian Mint (weighing 221 pounds each) was lent to a Berlin museum in 2017, where it was promptly swiped. The heist made 'Ocean’s 11' look way too complex: These thieves climbed a ladder, forced open a window, smashed the security case and rolled away the giant coin in a wheelbarrow. Four men, including a museum guard, were arrested several months later, but the coin was never recovered."

Full-Blown Currency War Can No Longer Be Ruled Out, Pimco Says -Yahoo Finance/Bloomberg
"A full-blown currency war where major central banks and governments, including the U.S., deliberately weaken their currencies can no longer be ruled out, Pacific Investment Management Co.'s global economic adviser Joachim Fels wrote in a report. The view is in line with a rising chorus of Wall Street analysts who warn that President Donald Trump's repeated complaints about the foreign exchange practices of key trading partners heightens the risk of U.S. intervention to weaken the dollar. Fels describes current conditions as a 'cold currency war, round three' that is at risk of escalating. 'Following a pause since early 2018, the cold currency war that has been waging between the world's major trading blocs for more than five years has been flaring up again,' Fels wrote....'Even the threat of outright dollar sales, coupled with continued verbal and tweeted 'weak dollar policy' interventions and, importantly, easier monetary policy by the Fed, could well do the trick,' according to Fels."

Democrats and Republicans agree - Donald Trump will be re-elected -New York Post
"It's a mixed marriage of a certain kind. He was a Trump supporter all along and she ­detested the man. But these days, they agree on one big thing: The president will be ­re-elected. Easily. 'Easily?' I asked, making sure I heard them correctly. Yes, they insisted, with her nodding as he said Democrats had gone bonkers and voters would respond by giving Trump four more years. The recent Manhattan conversation would be insignificant except that it dovetails with national trends, namely a growing belief that Dems are not coming back to this world anytime soon. One of many defining moments among the presidential contenders and pretenders came with their unanimous support for giving illegal immigrants free health care. They raised their hands to signal yes, as if the question was a ­no-brainer. Implicit in their so-called compassion is an invitation for millions and millions more to cross the border and get free care. Free, of course, except to American taxpayers....As Dems continue to devour each other, there are times when it would be wise for the president to follow the rule that you should never get in the way when your opponent is committing suicide....Broadly speaking, Trump's focus on borders is the linchpin of his presidency and the essence of putting Americans first...More than 100,000 people were apprehended in June and officials say many more crossed undetected. No rational American can say the situation is acceptable, yet even Friday, Ocasio-Cortez was still calling it a 'manufactured' ­crisis....The talk of eliminating the security designed after the worst attack in America's history is the stuff from which landslides are made - for the other party."

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Gold last traded at $1,413 an ounce. Silver at $15.34 an ounce.

NEWS SUMMARY: Precious metal prices traded mixed Monday on a firmer dollar. U.S. stocks slipped as investors remained cautious at the start of the corporate earnings season.

Swedish people are getting chip implants to replace cash -New York Post
"Thousands of people in Sweden are having futuristic microchips implanted into their skin to carry out everyday activities and replace credit cards and cash. More than 4,000 people have already had the sci-fi-ish chips, about the size of a grain of rice, inserted into their hands - with the pioneers predicting millions will soon join them as they hope to take it global....They have particularly caught on, however, by enabling owners to pay in stores with a simple swipe of the hand, a big deal in a forward-looking country that is moving toward eliminating cash. The microchips were pioneered by former body piercer Jowan Osterlund, who calls the technology a 'moonshot' - and who told Fortune magazine that he's been hit up by hopeful investors 'on every continent except Antarctica.'...Osterlund insists the technology is safe - but that has not stopped alarm bells from ringing, with some fearing a link to a doubling in cybercrime in the country over the last decade....'People have shown they're happy to give up privacy for convenience,' he said. 'The chip is very convenient, so could we accept our data being shared very widely before we know the risks?' The trend coincides with Sweden's march toward going cashless, with notes and coins making up just 1 percent of Sweden’s economy."

The Fed Could Use a Golden Rule -Grant/Wall Street Journal
"Though money can't talk, people can't stop talking about it. With the nomination of Judy Shelton to the Federal Reserve Board, the discussion has tilted to gold. Gold is money, or a legacy form of money, Ms. Shelton contends, and the gold standard is a reputable, even superior, form of monetary organization. The economists can hardly believe their ears. The central bankers roll their eyes. How can this obviously intelligent woman be so ignorant? Let us see about that. America was on one metallic standard or another from the Founding until President Richard Nixon announced the suspension of the Treasury's standing offer to foreign governments to exchange dollars for gold, or vice versa, at the unvarying rate of $35 an ounce. The date was Aug. 15, 1971. Ever since, the dollar has been undefined in law....The advance of computer technology has made possible a world-wide monetary system based on the scientifically informed discretion of Ph.D. economists. The Fed alone employs 700 of them....Gold-standard central banking concerned itself with the present. Millennial central bankers dare to take a view of the future. The moderns forecast, or attempt to forecast, economic growth, inflation, employment....The ideology of the gold standard was laissez-faire; that of the Ph.D. standard (let's call it) is statism. Gold-standard central bankers bought few, if any, government securities. Today's central bankers stuff their balance sheets with them....In today's monetary regime, some $13 trillion of debt securities world-wide are priced to deliver a yield of less than zero. There's been nothing like it in 4,000 years of recorded interest-rate history. And if gold could once be brushed aside as an anachronistic form of money, that time is no more, with private companies competing to bring digital gold to the blockchain. In 1989, Ms. Shelton published 'The Coming Soviet Crash,' a brilliant and courageous analysis of the weakness of an overrated collectivist economy. She could be just the woman to remind the Fed's doctors of economics how monetary capitalism works."

NY Fed's "Recession Probability Index" Is Now At "Alarming Levels" -Zero Hedge
"In addition to being the longest economic expansion in United States history, a number of reliable recession warning indicators have been flashing red in 2019. The latest of these is the New York Federal Reserve's recession probability index...'In the past, every time since 1960 that this index has breached 30%, a recession followed,' Morgan Stanley Wealth Management CIO Lisa Shalett wrote in a July 1 note to clients. It rose to 32.9% in June. Shalett also pointed to the gold/silver ratio, weakness in auto sales, housing, manufacturing, earnings, and capital spending. 'Recession probability models have entered warning territory and it may be unavoidable,' she added according to Axios. The most worrying part of a recession is that not only have most Americans not recovered from the last one, but many are blissfully unaware that an economic downturn is right around the corner. As the mainstream media lambasts the American public with tales of an epic and monumental economy, the data points and actual facts continue to rise to the surface....Around 28% of adults in the U.S. have no emergency savings, according to Bankrate's latest Financial Security Index...That would mean that a job loss or one missed paycheck would put almost a third of Americans in financial hardship."

Congress Is Coming for Your IRA -Wall Street Journal
"Like grave robbers opening King Tut's tomb, Congress can't wait to get its hands on America's retirement-account assets. The House passed the Setting Every Community Up for Retirement Enhancement Act, known by the acronym Secure, in May. The vote was 417-3. The Secure Act is widely expected to pass the Senate by unanimous consent. While ostensibly helping Americans save for retirement, the bill would actually reduce the value of all retirement savings plans: individual retirement accounts, 401(k)s, Roth IRAs, the works. The main problem with the Secure Act is that it eliminates the stretch IRA, the fixed star in the financial-planning firmament since 1999. The stretch IRA lets savers leave their retirement accounts to children, grandchildren or other beneficiaries...Congress wants to kill this. The Secure Act gives nonspouse beneficiaries 10 years to pull out all the money in an IRA. The effect would be to make more of an IRA subject to higher taxes sooner, as distributions are made in supersize chunks. As much as one-third more of an inherited IRA would get gobbled up by taxes than under current rules. When the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act expires in 2025, taxes will rise across the board. If President Trump signs the Secure Act into law, the stage will be set for a taxpocalypse sometime in the next decade....The insurance industry loves the Secure Act's mandate that annuities be offered as a payout option in all retirement plans. Insurance companies sold more than $230 billion worth of annuities in 2018, and they would like to push that figure higher. The mandatory offer of an annuity is a first step that could lead to the mandatory annuitization of all retirement accounts. This would shoehorn the distributions into higher brackets, accelerate the collection of tax revenue, and eliminate the 'problem' of the inherited IRA. Best of all, politicians would get to accomplish all this without voting to raise taxes." Congress is Coming for Your IRA

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Gold last traded at $1,412 an ounce. Silver at $15.23 an ounce.

NEWS SUMMARY: Precious metal prices rose Friday on safe haven buying and a weaker dollar. U.S. stocks rose after testimony from the top Federal Reserve official signaled a rate cut is coming.

Gold Is In a New Bull Market - and It's Heading a Lot Higher -Barrons
"It's gold's time to shine. The price of gold has gained 9.6% to $1404.30 an ounce this year, and my work projects the precious metal will move substantially higher from current levels as it starts a new bull market. The fundamentals and technicals are aligned for gold to maintain its upward trend in the coming months. Let's start with the fundamentals. Federal Reserve policy continues to be accommodative....And then there's the U.S. dollar, which is on the verge of declining. While the U.S. Dollar Index is down less than 2% from its high, my work confirmed a sell signal....Pausing at initial $1425-$1435 trendline resistance, the next resistance is $1485. Long-term, my work projects a $1600 objective....Bullish for gold also is the recent action in gold mining stocks...Gold stocks lead bullion higher during bull markets in gold."

"All News Is Good News" As S&P Rises Above 3,000 While Bond Selloff Accelerates -Zero Hedge
"This is one of those mornings where bad news is good news for stocks, while good news is bad news for bonds... or in other words, any news is good for stocks. Despite fresh all time highs in US equities, where the S&P is set to open above 3,000 after closing at 2,999.9 on Thursday, world shares came within a whisker of posting their first weekly loss since May on Friday and the dollar was down for a third day, even as a stronger-than-expected U.S. inflation print failed to shake bets on Federal Reserve interest rate cuts. Earlier in the session, the MSCI index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan was down 0.1%, with the regional benchmark set for its first weekly decline since May, as investors continued to monitor trade tensions between the U.S. and China....China's trade surplus with the United States, a major source of friction with its biggest trading partner, rose to $29.92 billion in June from $26.9 billion in May....The dollar was lower for a third straight day, down 0.1%. A stronger-than-expected inflation print failed to shake convictions that the Federal Reserve will start cutting interest rates at a policy meeting later this month."

As Recession Fears Rise, Skittish Investors Sell Riskiest Junk Bonds -Wall Street Journal
"As anxiety over an economic downturn creeps higher, investors have been avoiding one of the riskiest markets for corporate debt. The amount of extra yield, or spread, investors demand to hold company bonds rather than safe government debt has jumped since March by 0.62 percentage point for triple-C-rated company bonds versus a 0.07 percentage point decrease for junk debt with higher double-B ratings. Bond yields rise when prices fall. The trend is concerning because it contrasts with the fresh records in stock prices and the widespread hunt for yield that fueled a world-wide rally in bonds. It is also troubling because companies with the lowest bond ratings are typically the most vulnerable to the effects of an economic downturn....Investors are closely watching for signs of weakness in corporate bonds because the U.S. government market has begun to send signals that the economy could be heading for a recession....The decelerating economy in the U.S. 'is definitely worrying, especially if you look at the slowdown in China,' said Tracy Chen, a bond manager at Brandywine Global Investment Management....Federal-funds futures, which investors use to bet on central bank interest-rate moves, show a rate cut is priced in for later this month."

The Golden Rule Is as Golden as Ever -Reed/FEE
"Whenever you think it might have first happened, and whether you believe it was God-inspired or evolutionary happenstance, it was a great day in human history when individuals decided to treat others the way they themselves would want to be treated....The very essence of a free marketplace is voluntary, mutually-beneficial exchange...most transactions are wins for everybody. Each trader believes that what he's trading for is worth more to him than what he's giving up. This is only true when trades are entered into freely. If a party is forced to trade, he almost certainly believes he'll be worse off after the fact. Compulsion is as incompatible with the Golden Rule as fraud. In the marketplace, we offer each other something of value. If another party says, 'No, thank you,' we don't pull out a gun and demand that he trade. If we did, we certainly wouldn't be doing to him what we would like him to do to us. This is why socialism nullifies the Golden Rule. Socialists proclaim 'solidarity with the people.' They say they only want to help others. The problem is how they seek to do it...There's abundant truth in the popular internet meme that says, 'Socialism - Ideas So Good They Have to Be Compulsory.' The Golden Rule demands that we respect each other's differences, find common ground, and deal with each other voluntarily....If you're a socialist, you need to ask yourself why you want to handle so many issues and problems at gunpoint. Why must the cops (government force) be involved in everything? Where's your faith in and respect for your fellow citizens? The Golden Rule is as golden as ever. It's just that some people earnestly think they have something better in mind for their fellow citizens."

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Gold last traded at $1,406 an ounce. Silver at $15.14 an ounce.

News Summary: Precious metal prices pulled back on profit-taking after this week's gains. U.S. stocks higher, Dow breaks above 27,000 for the first time ever.

1 Federal Department Now Spending $100 Billion Per Month- CNS News
"For the first time in our nation's history, there is now a federal department spending an average of more than $100 billion per month....It is the Department of Health and Human Services...As it now stands, HHS runs Medicare for many and Medicaid for more. 'In 2019, the program will cover an estimated 61 million persons (52 million aged and 9 million disabled),' the Congressional Research Service said of Medicare in a report published in May.... 'CBO also estimates that federal Medicare spending (after deduction of beneficiary premiums and other offsetting receipts) will be about $637 billion in 2019, accounting for about 14% of total federal spending and 3% of GDP,' said CRS....'Two programs - Medicare and Medicaid - are expected to account for 86% of all estimated HHS spending in FY2019,' it said....Only one other federal agency or department rivals HHS for spending money. It is the Social Security Administration....Medicaid, Medicare and Social Security have one thing in common besides being the primary factors that have driven federal spending above $4 trillion per year: They make people dependent on government."

Investors are fleeing stocks. So why is the market still rising?- The Week
"The stock market is cruising, but investors are playing it safe. Despite the bull market — in which stocks are up almost 20 percent this year — investors around the world have actually yanked over $140 billion out of equity finds so far this year and are shoveling their money into low-risk, low-yield government bonds and money market funds instead. That's because they fear the market's potential volatility, Axios reports. 'People don't trust the stock market,' said Emily Roland, head of capital markets research at John Hancock Investment Management....Stocks have remained strong, though, mostly because of company buybacks and low volumes, Axios reported in May. In fact, despite some experts' concerns, the lack of action from investors is not necessarily a bad thing — because it means that investors aren't overconfident. The second half of the year could shed more light on the situation, but it looks likely to present the same combination of optimism and pessimism. The labor market is doing well, and markets are expecting more easy monetary policy from central banks. But a slowdown in trade and global growth continues to loom over everyone's heads."

World Gold Council: Federal Reserve, Central Bank Rate Cuts To Drive Gold Investment In H2- Forbes
"Gold has enjoyed quite a spectacular price run in 2019. Up 11% since the fireworks greeted New Year’s Day, investor demand for bullion has really lit up in the past few weeks amid expectations of central bank rate cuts and the escalating diplomatic and military crisis in the Middle East. Yellow metal values have retraced a little since striking six-year highs around $1,437 per ounce at the start of July, but as I type this article gold is just 10 bucks off those significant peaks. And latest World Gold Council (WGC) comments suggest that the safe-haven metal could be poised to charge again in the second half of the year. Signs of increasingly-doveish monetary policy from central banks across the globe has been a significant driver of bullion of late, that classic hedge against inflationary threats. And the council has predicted that 'the prospect of lower interest rates should support gold investment demand' in the latter half of 2019....Rate cuts, though, are not the only possible actions that could emerge in the medium term, the WGC argues. It says that in the event of a recession central banks may also be forced to rely on quantitative easing and 'new non-traditional measures' to stimulate the global economy. Naturally this bodes well for gold prices. As the WGC says: 'our research indicates that the gold price was higher in the 12 months following the end of a tightening cycle.'"

Trump has reportedly asked aides to find a way to weaken the US dollar- CNBC
"President Donald Trump has reportedly asked aides to find a way to weaken the U.S. dollar in an effort to boost the economy ahead of the 2020 presidential election. The president also asked about the greenback while interviewing Federal Reserve Board nominees Judy Shelton and Christopher Waller, people familiar with the matter told Bloomberg News....Trump has often bemoaned the relative strength of the U.S. dollar in foreign exchange markets, blaming other nations for devaluing their currencies and thereby inflating the American trade deficit. Last week, the president said in a tweet that the U.S. should match China and Europe's 'currency manipulation game.' 'China and Europe playing big currency manipulation game and pumping money into their system in order to compete with USA,' Trump said on Twitter. 'We should MATCH, or continue being the dummies who sit back and politely watch as other countries continue to play their games - as they have for many years!' A strong dollar tends to give American consumers an advantage when purchasing foreign goods but can hurt domestic exporters as other nations are forced to shell out larger sums for goods produced in the U.S. That’s proven a headache for Trump, who’s made reducing the U.S. trade deficit a priority."

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Gold last traded at $1,412 an ounce. Silver at $15.23 an ounce.

News Summary: Gold prices rally as U.S. dollar falls on dovish Fed comments. U.S. stocks higher as Powell comments indicate a likely interest rate-cut next month.

Fed Chairman Jerome Powell strongly hints a rate cut is coming- CNN
"Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell on Wednesday strongly hinted at a potential rate cut later this month, citing unresolved trade tensions and worries over the weakness of the global outlook. In prepared testimony ahead of his first appearance on Capitol Hill, Powell told House lawmakers that since the Fed's last interest-rate policy-setting meeting in June, two of the major forces that have the potential to drag down the US economy remain a concern. 'It appears that uncertainties around trade tensions and concerns about the strength of the global economy continue to weigh on the US economic outlook,' Powell will say at the hearing, according to his prepared remarks....Powell, the president's choice to run the world's most influential central bank, is facing considerable pressure to keep the US economy steady. Concerns are intensifying that Trump's tariff strategy may end up hurting global growth. Beyond a broader global slowdown, the Fed chair also named in his testimony a number of other risks facing the US economy including muted inflation, ongoing trade tensions and a looming debt ceiling crisis that has yet to be resolved by Congress. 'We are carefully monitoring these developments,' said Powell, who noted that the Fed now anticipates that 'weak inflation will be even more persistent that we currently anticipate.'"

Government Bond-Market Measure Says Recession Risk Growing- Wall Street Journal
"The yield on short-term Treasurys has been higher than on long-term notes for more than 30 consecutive trading sessions, a sign that investors are concerned about the durability of the decadelong economic expansion. The yield on three-month bills has exceeded that of the benchmark 10-year Treasury note by as much as 0.259 percentage point, the most since May 2007, before the financial crisis. Shorter-term bill yields tend to reflect expectations for Federal Reserve interest-rate policy, while those on longer-term securities move largely with expectations for growth and inflation. Investors watch the dispersion between yields on short- and longer-term Treasurys, known as the yield curve, because shorter-term yields tend to exceed longer-term ones before recessions. Investors call that a phenomenon an inverted yield curve. Two different financial models used by the Federal Reserve Banks of New York and Cleveland each show that the probability of a recession in the next 12 months has risen to about 1 in 3, odds last reached in 2007....Investors remain divided about whether an inverted yield curve is signaling a downturn is coming. One reason is recent upbeat data, such as Friday’s jobs report for June, which showed the U.S. added more jobs than economists had forecast. Another is that the Fed has indicated possible rate cuts, which could lower borrowing costs for consumers and businesses, potentially stimulating more growth and investment."

Gold Prices Spike Above $1,400 As Fed's Powell Highlights Growing Economic Uncertainty- Kitco
"Gold prices have pushed back above $1,400 an ounce reacting to dovish comments from Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell that signals looser monetary policy. In his testimony before the U.S. House Committee of Financial Services, Powell highlighted growing risks to the U.S. economy. 'Many FOMC participants saw that the case for a somewhat more accommodative monetary policy had strengthened,' he said in his opening statement, which was released 90 minutes before the hearing. 'Since then, based on incoming data and other developments, it appears that uncertainties around trade tensions and concerns about the strength of the global economy continue to weigh on the U.S. economic outlook. Inflation pressures remain muted'....'Growth indicators from around the world have disappointed on net, raising concerns that weakness in the global economy will continue to affect the U.S. economy. These concerns may have contributed to the drop in business confidence in some recent surveys and may have started to show through to incoming data,' he said."

Inside the Fed's 'hall of mirrors' problem - CNN Business
"The Federal Reserve has allowed itself to get backed into a corner by Wall Street. That means the central bank may need to slash interest rates - even if it doesn't want to. Markets believe a rate cut later this month is a slam dunk, and the Fed has done little to push back against that thinking. Keeping rates steady would create a market shock — one that could infect the real economy by denting confidence. 'We're in an environment where confidence is weak. This isn't a good time to be shocking the markets,' Ethan Harris, head of global economics at Bank of America Merrill Lynch, told CNN Business....'It is a big mistake for the Fed not to push back against the markets,' Harris said. Central banks are supposed to set policy for markets, not the other way around. It's never a good idea to let the inmates run the asylum....Bank of America's Harris urged Fed chief Jerome Powell to use his appearance on Wednesday and Thursday before lawmakers as an opportunity to reset market expectations. 'Neutral testimony from the Fed that doesn't address this mispricing would be a policy mistake,' Harris said. 'If they go into the meeting with the market fully convinced they will cut, they will only have bad choices.' For now, most market observers are betting the Fed will accede to Wall Street's calls for lower rates."

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Gold last traded at $1,400 an ounce. Silver at $15.14 an ounce.

News Summary: Precious metal prices end session higher, finishing above $1,400 an ounce. U.S. stocks mostly lower as investors await more clarity on Fed rate-cut plans.

Gold prices could reach $2,000 by the end of the year, strategist says- CNBC
"Gold prices can continue to climb even after they hit a multi-year high last week, a global investment strategist said Monday. In fact, prices are set to 'reach $2,000 by the end of the year,' predicted David Roche, president and global strategist at London-based Independent Strategy....Gold prices have been on an upward trend amid recent expectations of a Federal Reserve interest rate cut and heightened geopolitical concerns — conditions that might weigh on the stock market, according to Roche. 'I actually believe financial markets are now poised to crumble like a sand pile,' he told CNBC's 'Squawk Box'...Despite that, Roche projected gold prices would continue going up, partly because international trade tensions will add to the negative sentiment of stock market investors. 'I think the trade conflict with the United States is a much far, wider-reaching, global conflict, which will undermine growth expectations in equity markets,' he said. Given that outlook, Roche recommended investors hold gold in their portfolios, alongside some European fixed income and U.S. Treasurys."

Alphabet's plans to track people in its 'smart city' ring alarm bells- CNN Business
"Alphabet's plans to develop a Toronto neighborhood could set a dangerous precedent for the future of data-driven cities, according to data governance experts. Last month, Sidewalk Labs, the urban innovation arm of Google's parent company Alphabet, released a 1,524-page report detailing plans for developing a portion of Toronto's waterfront. The report, weighing more than 14 pounds, exhaustively detailed the perks of Alphabet's vision, including streets without traffic congestion and air pollution, as well as inventive ways of dealing with harsh weather. But when it came to discussing the handling of people's data, Alphabet offered only a handful of pages with few new details. Sidewalk Labs describes the creation of an independent agency to manage data collection agreements with companies and make sure the collection is beneficial for the community. Pedestrians walking in the neighborhood shortly after it launches will likely be tracked as they walk down streets, enter certain stores and spend time in parks. But it's not just about the data that will be collected about any given visitor on day one. It's the risks we don't even know about yet, the ones that may accrue over time as data collection broadens and gets more powerful. Innovations such as self-driving cars and drones will create new ways to collect data. Businesses, including Sidewalk Labs and others, will want even more data, and it's difficult to predict what all of the new, data-collecting innovations will be. Recent scandals, from the Equifax hack to Facebook's Cambridge Analytica debacle, have highlighted the importance of protecting data. Sidewalk Labs plans to build a neighborhood 'from the Internet up,' adding sensors that will turn streets and sidewalks into a digital space, increasing the opportunity for privacy issues, discriminatory algorithms and data breaches. Sidewalk Labs describes data being collected everywhere from building lobbies and retail stores to ride-hail vehicles, parks and markets, but no way to opt out entirely."

The US government faces a potential default in September, report says- AP/Business Insider
"Lower than expected tax revenues now mean there is a 'significant risk' that the federal government will run out of borrowing authority in the early part of September, according to a new analysis by the Bipartisan Policy Center, a Washington think tank and advocacy group. The report adds urgency to Washington budget and debt talks that have yet to go anywhere. The main culprit is that tax revenues are persistently weaker than anticipated, said Shai Akabas, the group's economic policy director, growing by 2% to 3% instead of the 5% to 6% anticipated earlier. The group, which has had a good track record in prior estimates, said two months ago that policymakers had until at least October before the threat of default. Also Monday, the Congressional Budget Office estimated that the government posted a budget deficit of $746 billion for the first nine months of fiscal year 2019, on track to approach or top $1 trillion. Revenues were $69 billion higher and federal spending was $208 billion higher over that period...Market analysts warn that defaulting or US obligations could spook investors, slam debt markets and increase borrowing costs for the government and individuals. Mnuchin is using now familiar accounting tools called 'extraordinary measures' to stave off default... 'This new analysis has revealed a dangerous scenario that cannot be ignored. Budget negotiators need to know that time is running short,' said Akabas."

AP-NORC Poll: Many feeling vulnerable despite economic gains- AP
"Americans are generally satisfied with their personal finances, but many lack confidence in their ability to afford retirement, an emergency expense or even their daily living costs....Their anxiety is among the consequences of the economic expansion, which has benefited the most affluent far more than it has others. The richest Americans now hold a greater share of the nation’s wealth than they did before the Great Recession began in 2007. Housing and college costs have imposed a much heavier strain on today’s young adults than they did on older generations. And four decades of sluggish pay growth have depressed starting salaries for people who are beginning their careers. Nearly four in 10 Americans say they lack confidence in their ability to pay an emergency expense of $1,000. At the same time, only about 1 in 10 say it’s very likely they wouldn’t pay the bill at all, even if it meant taking a loan, relying on a credit card or borrowing money from relatives. Just two in 10 are very confident that they’ll have enough savings for retirement. Nearly half have little to no confidence... The generational wealth gap that emerges from the survey coincides with findings last year by researchers at the St. Louis Federal Reserve. Those researchers studied six groups of families born between 1930s and the 1980s. The youngest group, they concluded, was essentially a 'lost generation' for accumulating wealth."

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Gold last traded at $1,400 an ounce. Silver at $15.08 an ounce.

News Summary: Precious metal prices waver as traders await this week's Powell testimony. U.S. stocks drop on lower odds for steep Fed rate cut.

Weaker growth will offset a Fed rate cut—so sell stocks, warns Morgan Stanley- Market Watch
"So we start the week with U.S. stock market indexes just a few steps away from all time highs. That is even after Friday’s extra strong jobs data rattled some investors, who worried that the Fed could be deterred from cutting interest rates in a few weeks. But according to CME Group, that cut is happening. Our call of the day though, kicks things off with a warning from Morgan Stanley which is 'putting our money where our mouth is' and downgrading global equities to underweight from equal-weight. Here’s why: ‘The most straightforward reason for the shift is simple—we project poor returns,' said Andrew Sheets and a team of strategists.... Morgan Stanley is expecting a rate cut, but Sheets argues history shows that when central banks cut because growth is weak, it is the weakness that matters more for stocks in the end. 'If you don’t believe us, we have some European stocks from April 2015, shortly after the European Central Bank’s first QE program was announced, that we’d like to sell you', he added"

Gold Bull Mobius Says Every Portfolio Needs at Least 10%- Bloomberg
"Veteran investor Mark Mobius says that gold’s set to push higher, potentially topping $1,500 an ounce, as interest rates head lower, central banks extend purchases, and uncertainty surrounding geopolitics and cryptocurrencies fans demand. 'I love gold,' Mobius, who set up Mobius Capital Partners LLP last year after three decades at Franklin Templeton Investments, said in an interview in Singapore, adding bullion should always form part of a portfolio, with a holding of at least 10%. 'As these interest rates come down, where do you go?'...'Interest rates are going so low, particularly now in Europe,' he said. 'What’s the sense of holding euro when you get a negative rate? You might as well put it into gold, because gold is a much better currency.'...Mobius isn't the only high-profile gold fan as prices climb. Billionaire trader Paul Tudor Jones has listed the metal as his favorite pick over the next 12-to-24 months, saying that prices could move to $1,700 once they breach $1,400. BlackRock Inc. said last month it expects bullion to end the year higher."

Trump says US should start manipulating the dollar- AP
"President Donald Trump on Wednesday accused China and Europe of playing a 'big currency manipulation game.' He said the United States should match that effort, a move that directly contradicts official U.S. policy not to manipulate the dollar’s value to gain trade advantages.....A country manipulates its currency when it drives down the value to make its exports cheaper and foreign imports more expensive....A weaker dollar would boost U.S. exports but could run the risk of causing foreign investors who are helping to finance the federal government’s $22 trillion national debt to move their investments elsewhere to avoid the risk of currency depreciation lowering their returns."

Trump picks another Fed member who believes in the gold standard. This one really means it- CNN Business
"The United States abandoned the gold standard in 1971, and today the majority of economists in America believe reviving it would be disastrous for the US economy. Yet that isn't stopping President Donald Trump from naming a longtime proponent of returning to the gold standard, conservative scholar Judy Shelton, as his latest pick for a seat on the Federal Reserve Board. Both of Trump's most recent previous would-be nominees, conservative analyst Stephen Moore and businessman Herman Cain, endorsed returning to the gold standard. But Shelton is far more identified with her advocacy for the idea, which is based on the belief that the price of gold is stable and would make the dollar less susceptible to inflation or other volatility....On Friday, Shelton defended her position on gold. 'It's supposed to be a dependable store of value,' said Shelton in an interview on CNBC. 'It's not supposed to be just another government policy instrument to try to engineer outcomes. And what we've seen is central banks trying too hard to do just that, and they've engineered us right into a negative rate scenario, which completely undermines the idea of having faith in the future.'"

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Gold last traded at $1,420 an ounce. Silver at $15.34 an ounce.

NEWS SUMMARY: Precious metal prices held steady near 6-year highs on bargain-hunting despite a firmer dollar. U.S. stocks cheered weak employment data as investors hope this increases the odds of a Fed interest rate cut later this month.

The trade war is over - and the winner is China -Gold/Marketwatch
"The great U.S.-China trade war is all over but the shouting. In a meeting on the sidelines of the G-20 summit in Osaka, Japan, President Donald Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping agreed to resume trade talks that had broken down in May. Trump will lift some restrictions on Huawei Technologies Co. Ltd.'s ability to do business with U.S. companies and will postpone tariffs he threatened to impose on an additional $300 billion annually in Chinese imports. In exchange, Xi agreed China will buy more U.S. agricultural products This deal - the second time President Trump gave in to China's demands and ended restrictions on a major Chinese technology company that had been accused of threatening U.S. national interests - effectively marks the end of Trump's trade war with China. Why? Because it shows the president won't go to the wall to fundamentally change the U.S.'s trade relationship with the world's second-biggest economy. The Chinese president has clearly calculated his American counterpart is unwilling to do anything that would threaten his support among key constituencies, like farmers, as the 2020 election looms....China will not rein in its state-owned enterprises. It will not curtail its Made in China 2025 initiatives in cutting-edge technologies like robotics, electric vehicles and artificial intelligence. Global supply chains will remain largely intact and thousands of manufacturing jobs will not flow back to U.S. shores. China under President for Life Xi will continue to become the most advanced surveillance state the world has ever seen, and it will keep hundreds of thousands of Uighur Muslims from Xinjiang in 're-education' camps for as long as it wishes."

U.S. Independence Day - Fireworks In Gold -Kitco
"In honor of U.S. independence, gold is exploding and has tested the highs made last week when it saw a blow-off top. On Tuesday, gold was holding our support levels and was steadily rallying. Suddenly towards the close of the trading day, the rally was on and gold closed at $1,421. In the overnight session, which begins at 6 EDT gold, was celebrating U.S. independence and traded as high as $1,441. The buyers couldn't get in fast enough and as always happens, the excitement subsided, and the sellers came in, creating equilibrium to the market. This morning, gold is trading around $1,428 and looks ready to continue to rally. Our expectations are to see gold consolidate; the spike rally was not a total surprise with gold bouncing from support. There is a solid trading range between $1,380 and $1,450, which should continue for a week or two. We are bullish and will buy the bottom end of the range as we prepare for gold to make a run at $1,500 and beyond. The fireworks are real, but don't be surprised if there aren't a few duds along the way and a couple of sell-offs to shake out the weak hands."

If Facebook or Google create their own currency, they can control our lives -The Guardian
"Facebook, despite three years of corporate disgrace - and rising noise from legislators about bringing the tech giant to heel - have yet to slow its terrifying quest to insinuate its workings into every area of our lives. Now, in a move that could have been taken from a futuristic novel, it wants to create nothing less than a new global currency. 'Libra' will be pegged to a basket of mainstream currencies at a value of about a dollar, and rooted in the model of secure, immutable online transactions we know as blockchain....One element of the initiative is making person-to-person transactions possible at either low or no cost - so that the migrant worker, say, can wire money home to their family and be assured that no one will be taking a cut. Moreover, thanks to the ease of wage and bill payments, people so far left out of financial services can cease to be 'unbanked', and thereby gain more personal freedom....Libra offers new revenue opportunities, partly by inviting people to exchange national currencies for the new medium, thereby gifting Facebook and its partners a vast pool of funds. In these territories, and more affluent places, the new currency also offers Facebook the chance to accelerate what sits at the heart of everything it does: the harvesting of endless data, which can then be monetized....But every bit as alarming is how the entry of Facebook into the creation of money will lead it to another sphere currently overseen by the state: beyond everyday consumerism, into the nitty-gritty of how we use public services and interact with government - in education, health, social care, crime and punishment, and everything else. Google has already got there, as proved by everything from its vast presence in the US education system to the use of NHS data by its artificial intelligence wing, DeepMind...Surveillance capitalism would colonize the shrinking parts of our lives it has so far left relatively untouched...But the biggest question of all is screamingly obvious, and worth asking for the thousandth time: how, in any meaningful way, can we hold Facebook - and Google - to account, and drastically limit their power? The answer surely starts with a massive international no to big tech's most hubristic scheme yet."

Moderates Have the Better Story -Brooks/New York Times
"American progressives have a story to tell...Global capitalism is a war zone. Free trade is a racket. Big business and big pharma are rapacious villains that crush the common man. In this context you need a government prepared for war....You need a government that will protect you, control you and give you things: free college, free child care. As in any war, you want government that is centralized and paternalistic. Moderates have a different story to tell, but in both parties moderates are afraid to tell it...In the moderate story, global capitalism is a challenge but also an opportunity field. Over the past generation more people have been lifted out of poverty than ever before. For the first time we have a mass global middle class....Progressives want to create a government caste that is powerful and a population that is safe but dependent. Moderates, by contrast, are trying to create a citizenry that possesses the vigorous virtues - daring, empowered, always learning, always brave. How to do that? First, learn from the Nordic countries. No Nordic country has a minimum wage law. According to a JPMorgan Chase report, Nordic countries are more open to free trade than the U.S. They have fewer regulations on business creation, fewer licensing regulations...Most Nordic countries have zero estate tax. Nordic health plans require patient co-payments and high deductibles, in stark contrast to Bernie Sanders's plan. The Nordic countries tried wealth taxes of the sort Elizabeth Warren is proposing, and all except Norway abandoned them because they were unworkable....Second, never coddle. Progressives are always trying to give away free stuff. They reduce citizens to children on Christmas morning...Moderates want to help but not infantilize. They want to help students finish college, but they want them to at least partly earn their way, to have skin in the game....Third, drive decision-making downward. People become energetic, responsible adults by making decisions for themselves, their families and their communities. Moderates are always aiming to make responsibility, agency and choice as local as possible....Fourth, bring on the world. International competition is more rigorous than national competition. Moderates think Americans can meet that test....These are stark differences, different worldviews. So far in this campaign you've heard only one. But moderates have another story, and it is the better one."

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Gold last traded at $1,408 an ounce. Silver at $15.23 an ounce.

NEWS SUMMARY: Precious metal prices rebounded sharply Tuesday on international trade worries and a weaker dollar. U.S. stocks fell after the U.S. threatened a new wave of tariffs on European goods, dampening recent optimism surrounding the Washington-Beijing trade truce.

Why the Gold Rally Is Set to Run -Constable/The Street
"It's all systems go for gold investors. The bullion market is stirring from a multiyear slumber and looks set to enter a sustained rally, experts say. Double-digit increases within the next 18 months may be only the start of the price surge. '[W]e believe there is a very good chance that this marks the beginning of a new gold bull market,' says gold market veteran Joe Foster, portfolio manager for the VanEck International Investors Gold Fund. Foster says the run is 'likely to last several years.' With that in mind, smart investors should consider buying a heftier than usual helping of gold...Swiss bank UBS now sees the potential for the price to rise as high as $1,580 by the end of next year. That's around 14% higher than its current price....Negative yields mean that investors are guaranteed to get back less money than they put in, and that is a game changer for the gold market...'Negative yields remove the opportunity costs from holding gold,' says Milling-Stanley....Continued geopolitical uncertainty around the world is making investors nervous, and they want to invest in something that they can count on, like gold."

The Economic Bubble Bath -Zero Hedge
"At the end of a long, tiring day, we may choose to treat ourselves to a soothing bubble bath. Surrounded by steaming water and a froth of sweet-smelling bubbles, it's easy to forget the cares of everyday life....We're presently seeing an economic anomaly - a host of bubbles, inflating dramatically at the same time. The Stock Market Bubble - Only a decade ago, stocks plummeted and billions were lost by investors. But then, before the system could be cleansed of the detritus, more money was artificially pumped into the system and stocks began to rise again. Margin debt is now at an all-time high and complacency is at a maximum. The present condition looks quite a bit more like 1929 than 2008, and the stock market is overdue for a crash. This time, it promises to be much greater than before, as the debt that's fueling the bull market is at a level that's historically unprecedented. The Bond Market Bubble - This bubble could just as easily be termed a 'debt bubble,' as bonds are simply a promise to pay a debt at a future date...By far, the largest portion of the bond market is that of Treasuries, or government-issued bonds...Bonds are presently in a bubble of epic proportions, and with every month, the foundation underneath them is crumbling more, due to ever-increasing dumping. The Real Estate Bubble - In 1999, the Fed, then under Alan Greenspan, convinced the US president to repeal the Glass Steagall Act, freeing the banks to create the types of loans that helped cause the Great Depression. This, of course, led to the real estate crash of 2007, but instead of the banks going belly-up, they were rewarded for their misdeeds through bailouts that were paid for by taxpayers...Prices have once again risen and, at this point, are overdue for a major correction. That correction is now well under way....The present bubble bath is an anomaly without precedent and, as such, promises to result in a crash of unprecedented proportions."

For 2020 Democrats, It's 'Ignore The Economy, Stupid' -Issues Insights
"How do Democrats sell their policies when the economy is doing well and unemployment is at 50-year lows? By avoiding the subject. At least, that's what Democrats did during the two nights of debating. The very first question asked in the first debate, by Savannah Guthrie, was about whether the Democrats' far-left agenda would risk the economic growth we've been enjoying. 'Seventy-one percent of Americans say the economy is doing well, including 60% of Democrats,' she said. 'What do you say to those who worry this kind of significant change could be risky to the economy?' Sen. Elizabeth Warren, the first to answer, pretended not hear the question. Instead, she went on a rant about how the economy is 'doing great for a thinner and thinner slice at the top.'...And when Democrats did talk about the economy, it was in grim, Dickensian terms. Cory Booker said, 'I see every single day that this economy is not working for average Americans'...For Kamala Harris, 'this economy is not working for working people.'....Democrats instead debated about how much free stuff they would give people, including health care to illegal immigrants. The economic discussion, when it occurred, focused mostly on redistribution and class envy....Ignoring the solid gains that families are making right now won't make them go away. And constantly portraying the economy in the grimmest light only makes Democrats look out of touch."

Healing the Divisions in Our Country -New York Times
"Love your enemies? In this America? 'Maybe this seems impossible to you,' writes Arthur C. Brooks in Love Your Enemies: How Decent People Can Save America From the Culture of Contempt. 'You might say: ‘There are some people who are simply beyond the pale. There are millions of awful people in this country who advocate ideas we cannot tolerate. They deserve our contempt, not our love!' I have heard this sentiment from serious journalists, respected academics and mainstream politicians. I have thought it myself....Brooks beholds America's 21st-century tribal feuds - which on a national scale add up to nothing less than a religious war, a clash of faiths and value systems - with a clear, intelligent eye and a hospitable attitude that is rightly focused on the spiritual dimensions of the problem: Only transcendence can open the way to better solutions down the road. The real swamp just now is in the American mind....Brooks is the outgoing head of the American Enterprise Institute, an influential conservative think tank in Washington, he is an advocate for free enterprise and a serious Catholic (a convert in his midteens) who has gone up into the foothills of the Himalayas to seek counsel from his friend the Dalai Lama. He draws not only upon neurology and behavioral science but also upon the ideas of Dale Carnegie's 'How to Win Friends and Influence People.' The essence of our woes, according to Brooks, is that ours is a 'culture of contempt.' 'My point is simple: Love and warmheartedness might not change every heart and mind, but they are always worth trying, and they will always make you better off.'....Brooks suggests, America's path forward lies in its learning to transcend self-destructive, obsessive politics in order to think clearly and to use the intelligent competition of ideas to advance the country."

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Gold last traded at $1,389 an ounce. Silver at $15.19 an ounce.

NEWS SUMMARY: Precious metal prices fell back Monday on easing geopolitical concerns and a firmer dollar. U.S. stocks rose after the U.S. and China agreed to hold off on additional tariffs in an effort to resume trade talks.

"Nothing Was Solved In Osaka - The US And China Remain On Collision Course" -Blain/Zero Hedge
"Trump vs Xi agreed to resume trade negotiations. No more tariffs, but the old ones still in place. Huawei ban to be reconsidered. Trump also met Kim in the DMZ. It was also the end of H1 2019, with stock markets posting their most impressive gains since 1997 even as bonds proved the top returning assets - which should have everyone wondering and worrying how! I reckon that puts us in a very interesting position for the next 18 months. Trade wars will remain a major distraction and concern - whatever happened in Osaka over the weekend, about the only thing we can confirm is nothing is really fixed! Instead, the dominant factor in coming months could be the US Federal Reserve - and how it is likely to come under increasing pressure from Trump....The renewed trade negotiations between China and US will have little effect on market direction. The news will decrease expectations of an imminent global recession, but it also reduce the pressure on the Fed to cut US rates. Hence it is Market Neutral....Both Trump and XI were playing for time - Trump's demands about opening up China to US agri-goods is simple play for an electoral boost. XI needed the promise of no further tariffs and a Huawei rethink as a sign he's got concessions. Neither side has much to gain politically from pushing swift agreement, (economically is a very different matter, both China and US will still suffer), meaning trade doubts drag on and remain a major market concern through rest of year...The big danger is that market believes Fed is going to deliver, and it doesn't. That's why I think it's all about how Powell stands up to Trump in coming months."

5 reasons why 2019 has been gold's time to glitter -Yardeni/Marketwatch
"June was a good month for gold, which made for a strong first-half of the year for the precious metal. The price of gold rose 10% from $1,280.30 per ounce at the end of 2018 to $1,409.00 at the end of last week. Gold jumped 9% in June. It finished the month at its second-highest level since May 2013. Why has this been gold's year? And what happened in June?...The solid performances of both gold and the S&P 500 during June and so far this year probably reflect the pivots by both Fed Chairman Jerome Powell and European Central Bank (ECB) President Mario Draghi away from monetary normalization, with recent hints that they are considering going back to ultra-easy monetary policies....The answer to why gold is rallying can be found in the fact that the gold price tends to be highly correlated with the inverse of the 10-year TIPS yield. In other words, gold does best when the TIPS yield is falling....Gold is diverging from other commodities. In the past, I have often observed that the price of gold seems to confirm the underlying trend in the CRB raw industrials spot price index as well as its basic metals component. However, the price of gold has been diverging from both of these indexes so far this year....Gold is a hedge against economic and political instability...Why would weak growth be bullish for gold? Economic weakness tends to inflame destabilizing anti-globalization nationalistic political forces around the world; gold is a refuge from economic and political instability."

Why Both Political Parties Favor Inflation -Bonner/Bonner And Partners
"We've been pulling on threads for the last two weeks. Today, we try to knit them together. First, we observed that 'stimulus,' no matter what they call it, is really just a form of inflation. Whether the feds run deficits, push rates down, offer tax cuts, or buy bonds - the idea is always the same… to put more money in play...When the president says the Federal Reserve should cut rates, for example, he is just calling for more inflation. Without it, he believes, bad things will happen....Republicans, Democrats, socialists, conservatives, communists, Bolsheviks, and Trotskyites - now, everyone seems to believe it… and they're even ready to rig the most important price in capitalism - the price of capital itself - to prove it....Second, we realized that inflation - whether in the financial economy or the Main Street economy - has more or less the same effect. It makes a helluva goulash out of the crucial price signals. Then, nobody knows anything. They get confused. They make mistakes. Prices rise, but GDP falls. People have more money, but they get poorer. This process is undeniable in consumer price inflation. Just look at those in Venezuela...Less obvious is what happens when asset prices are inflated. The Fed lowers rates. More money flows into asset prices (inflation)....Third, once inflation gets going - whether asset prices or consumer prices - the authorities have only two choices: Inflate or Die....America's insiders, elite, movers-and-shakers, and Deep Staters have made about $30 trillion from unearned stock market gains. That ill-gotten wealth will disappear if the feds stop inflating...The value of all the publicly traded companies in America is about $30 trillion. But they owe $15 trillion, thanks largely to the $15 trillion they spent buying their own overpriced shares. And now, a 50% drop in the stock market would make the whole kit and caboodle insolvent. Both political parties favor more inflation. Without it, they think we are doomed. They're right. And they'll inflate. And then, we will be even more doomed."

In the Arizona Desert, an Elite Border Patrol Unit Responds to Desperate Cases -Wall Street Journal
"Of the many ways migrants end up in Border Patrol custody, this is among the most desperate. The unit of 200 agents called BORSTAR stationed along the border are all trained EMTs, and they rescue people who are stranded in the mountains, caught in swift moving water, in medical need, or dial 911, a call people tend to make only in the most dire state, the agents say. Mr. McNeil is also a paramedic....Mr. McNeil said he is worried that more people will die trying to make the crossing as summer temperatures rise, including some of the record number of children making the journey. Twelve children have died crossing the U.S.-Mexico border so far this year, more than in any full year since at least 2014, according to the International Organization for Migration. Some, like nearly 2-year-old Valeria Ramirez, who appeared alongside her father in a photo that spread globally last week, drown while trying to cross the Rio Grande in Texas. Others have died in the desert heat. The danger of crossing the border illegally is one of the reasons lawmakers cite in calling for policy changes. Immigrant advocates say it reflects the overflow of people at the border trying to ask for asylum at legal ports of entry, where there can be backlogs of weeks or months...Between January and May, nearly 282,000 migrants traveling as families were apprehended at the border, more than in any prior full year, along with 41,300 unaccompanied minors. 'Nothing is normal. My biggest fear is that we run short of volunteers and we run out of water,' said Eddie Canales, director of the South Texas Human Rights Project, which provides aid to migrants who travel from Mexico into the U.S....Most illegal immigrants are from Guatemala, Honduras, or El Salvador. Upon arriving in the U.S., they typically surrender to the first border agent they find and request asylum, starting a process that often lets them stay in the U.S. for years while their claim is adjudicated amid long court delays....Mr. McNeil said BORSTAR agents spend about half the year training. The summer is considered their 'operations seasons,' when agents will be dispatched to help migrants on a nearly daily basis."

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