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5.27.26 - The Quiet Collapse Under The Market's Surface
Gold last traded at $4,456 an ounce. Silver at $74.65 an ounce.
EDITOR'S NOTE: There appears to be growing ignorance of what's actually happening in our economy right now. As one author in the article below puts it, the markets - along with the talking heads - appear "hypnotized" by the headlines coming out of the Middle East; while ignoring the fact that our own economy already seems to be coming apart at the seams.
It's important to remember that inflation, soaring living costs, private lending issues, market strain, and the financial pressures Americans are dealing with every day are not simply the result of the current conflict in the Middle East. These problems have been steadily worsening for years, and the war has only intensified an already fragile economic situation.
Oh Dear, Condo Prices already Dropped by 15% to 33% in 24 Bigger Markets, Some Back to Where They’d Been 20 Years Ago -Wolf Street
By Wolf Richter
The price drops are getting relentlessly steeper: In 24 bigger markets, prices of mid-tier condos through April have dropped by 15% to 33% from their respective peaks between 2021 and 2024.
Each of the markets is shown in a chart below: 24 mindboggling charts, depicting breath-taking price explosions, especially from mid-2020 to mid-2022, exceeding 50%, 60%, or even 70% in just two years in some cities. In the 10 years to the peak, prices had soared by 180% to 350% in these markets. And these bubbles have started to deflate.
In 2 of the cities, prices of mid-tier condos dropped by over 30%. In five other markets, prices dropped by 20% to 28%. In another 3 cities, prices dropped by 19%. These are starting to be substantial declines over a multiyear period.
In several of these markets, condo prices have now dropped below their peaks of Housing Bubble 1 in 2006/2007 and are back where they’d been 20 years ago. In a few other markets, prices have dropped close to their peaks of Housing Bubble 1. Those charts are marked with a red line. VIEW CHARTS AND READ MORE
The Quiet Collapse Under The Market's Surface...It's Getting Louder -ZeroHedge
by QTR's Fringe Finance
The market is hypnotized by headlines out of the Middle East. Every missile strike, every oil spike, every rumor about escalation with Iran sends volatility dealers and gamma-chasing algorithms into another violent intraday swing.
But beneath the geopolitical theater, a dangerous story continues to deteriorate quietly in the background: multiple areas are cracking in a way that looks increasingly systemic, and almost nobody wants to talk about it. But I won’t shut up about it.
Why? Try this on for size. According to Fitch Ratings, the U.S. Private Credit Default Rate just hit another all-time high. Fitch reported that the trailing twelve-month private credit default rate rose to 6.0% for April 2026, up from 5.7% in March and the highest level since the firm began tracking the data in August 2024.
The model-based default rate climbed to a record 4.8%, while the privately monitored rating default rate remained an astonishing 9.7%. Those are accelerating cracks. READ MORE
Stranded -ZeroHedge
By Molly Schwartz, cross-asset macro strategist at Rabobank
Markets laid in wait for war-related headlines yesterday after Trump truthed on Monday night that “negotiations with the Islamic Republic of Iran” were “proceeding nicely.” It’s also possible that “proceeding nicely” meant that the US was once again escalating to de-escalate, as hours later the US military confirmed reports of strikes against Iranian military assets, including speedboats which were laying mines in the Strait. While the news reel was sparsely populated, it did flag that the US Navy was restarting to guide ships through the Strait with a plan to help a dozen vessels through the passage in the coming days. However, minutes later a “US official” denied these claims, leaving traders, and vessels in the Strait, stranded. Brent crude oil climbed around $3.50 from open to $99.50/bbl.
A look at the current landscape suggests to us that a peace deal is far beyond the horizon. Rabobank’s global strategist, Michael Every, released a report, The Hormuz Odyssey: a new base case, which updates our base case to see complications in the Strait for around another three months. The possible outcomes of the war in Iran are immeasurable, but even in the pipe dream scenario where the war ends tomorrow, logistics are king. If a deal were to be magically achieved tomorrow, there are still somewhere around 1,500 ships still trapped in the Strait of Hormuz.
The Strait is incredibly narrow and it will take time for these ships to safely pass through. Energy strategists Joe DeLaura and Florence Schmit elaborate on the implications for energy prices in their recent report, Longer Stalemate, Higher Prices. Needless to say, they project oil staying higher for longer, forecasting Brent averaging around $120/bbl in Q3 of this year, which would imply a return to levels still not seen since 2022. READ MORE
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5.26.26 - BRICS continues dumping Treasuries
Gold last traded at $4,508 an ounce. Silver at $76.96 an ounce.
EDITOR'S NOTE: The continued dumping of U.S. Treasuries by BRICS nations is further proof that the dollar's grip on the global financial system is slipping. As this shift continues to accelerate, gold stands to benefit significantly as governments and investors move capital into hard assets they trust far more than paper currency and debt.
BRICS Countries China, Brazil and India Dump $51,200,000,000 in US Treasuries As Ron Paul Warns the Dollar’s Global Reserve Status Is Under Threat -The Daily Hodl
Three members of the Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa (BRICS) economic bloc disposed of billions of dollars in US treasuries in one month, the most recent report from the U.S. Treasury Department shows.
According to data from the Treasury International Capital (TIC) System, Brazil, China and India together dumped $51.2 billion worth of US treasuries in March. China disposed of the highest amount in March, offloading $41 billion, followed by India, which sold $7.6 billion worth of US treasuries. Brazil dumped US government debt valued at $2.6 billion over the same period.
Since March of 2025, the three BRICS countries have offloaded more than $200 billion worth of US treasuries. China has dumped $113.1 billion worth of US government debt while India and Brazil have offloaded $56.9 billion and $40.4 billion, respectively, over that period.
The TIC report comes amid a warning by former U.S. House of Representatives member, Ron Paul, who says that various factors now pose a threat to the US dollar’s global reserve status.
According to Paul, the Federal Reserve could be forced to ease monetary policy by political forces and this could result in further decline in the dollar’s value. Paul further says that disruptions related to the Iran war could trigger a global debt crisis as governments around the world default. READ MORE
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5.22.26 - A Stronger Yuan?
Gold last traded at $4,514 an ounce. Silver at $75.81 an ounce.
EDITOR'S NOTE: A stronger Chinese yuan will likely push gold prices higher, as investors continue to move away from the dollar and into hard assets that preserve purchasing power. It also accelerates the global shift away from dollar dependence, a trend that continues to fuel massive demand for physical gold worldwide.
Goldman Sachs Says Chinese Yuan Will Strengthen Against the US Dollar -Watcher.Guru
by Vinod Dsouza
Leading global bank Goldman Sachs wrote in a note to clients that the Chinese yuan is at least 20% undervalued against the US dollar. The investment banking giant expects the local currency to keep strengthening over the coming years. The development indicates that the Chinese yuan has further upside, boosting currency forecasts in the broader forex markets.
The case for a stronger Chinese yuan is “more fundamental and longer-lasting,” based on China’s export strength and external surplus, wrote Goldman Sachs. The yuan is well below the levels justified by China’s export strength, wrote analysts led by Kamakshya Trivedi.
“China’s external surplus is approaching unprecedented levels as a percentage of global GDP, reflecting deep levels of export competitiveness, and also a highly undervalued currency, with currency appreciation an equilibrium outcome of those forces,” Goldman Sachs strategists wrote in the note highlighting the strength of the Chinese yuan. READ MORE
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5.21.26 - How to Hedge Gasoline Prices
Gold last traded at $4,543 an ounce. Silver at $76.67 an ounce.
EDITOR'S NOTE: Higher gas prices have become a harsh reality we're all being forced to deal with in today's economy. The real question is whether there's anything we can actually do about it. This article offers an interesting perspective on how investors may be able to ease some of the pain at the pump instead of simply absorbing the cost.
How to Hedge $6 Gasoline Prices -Daily Reckoning
by Matt Badiali
Fuel prices are going to clobber the American consumer. If you think it hurts now, I have bad news… higher prices are coming.
I expect that gasoline prices will break $6 per gallon this summer. The only good news is that high prices cure themselves…it just takes pain and time.
The closest thing I have to compare is the 2008 demand spike right before the global financial crisis. Back then, soaring gasoline prices created massive demand destruction. We all felt the pinch.
So, we stopped driving and conserved when we could.
We carpooled. When we went out to run errands, we ran ALL of them at once. And we changed our plans to accommodate the extra expenses. As you can see in this chart of data from the Energy Information Administration (EIA), the blue line is consumption. The red line is the price of gasoline: VIEW CHARTS AND READ MORE
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5.20.26 - Uncertain financial waters
Gold last traded at $4,539 an ounce. Silver at $76.18 an ounce.
EDITOR'S NOTE: As global markets continue their desperate search for stability, investors are being forced to navigate some of the most uncertain financial waters in modern history. Over the last several years, the landscape has fundamentally shifted, with the world marching to a completely different rhythm socially, politically, and economically. While that reality is hard to dispute, there is also a growing belief that we are approaching a financial breakdown that could send investors rushing into tangible assets.
Legendary investor Jeremy Grantham says AI is the only thing that's prevented a recession and a market crash -Business Insider
by Jennifer Sor
The US economy would have tumbled down a difficult path were it not for AI, Jeremy Grantham says.
The GMO founder and investing legend issued a cautious message on the state of the US economy and markets last week. Speaking on a recent episode of the Excess Returns podcast, Grantham said he believed the US probably would have slipped into a downturn and seen a steep market crash in 2023 , were it not for the huge investments being poured into AI.
"My guess is that in 2023 we would have moved into a recession and the market would have gone down another 25%. And AI headed it off," Grantham said.
"We're in terra incognita," he added, referring to the US's "unprecedented" reliance on AI spending as a percentage of GDP.
The boom in artificial intelligence has fueled a massive spending spree among tech giants. Amazon, Google, Meta, and Microsoft have collectively earmarked $725 billion in capex this year, much of which will be spent on the AI buildout, according to company statements. That amount is roughly 2% of US GDP in 2025. READ MORE
Why Gold Is Falling Even With War and Hot Inflation -Investing Haven
Conventional market wisdom suggests that gold should shine when inflation flares and geopolitical tensions boil over. Yet, the current market environment has confounded many investors.
Spot gold retreated toward $4,472 this week, a move that followed a sobering U.S. producer price index (PPI) report showing a 6% year-over-year jump and a 1.4% monthly increase.
Rather than acting as a reflexive shield against these pressures, gold has found itself caught in a different, more powerful crosscurrent. Treasury yields have climbed to levels not seen since 2007, and the U.S. dollar has strengthened to a six-week high.
These developments have recalibrated market expectations, with investors now betting that the Federal Reserve will maintain a “higher-for-longer” interest rate stance, a dynamic that currently acts as a weight on non-yielding assets. READ MORE
Commercial Oil Inventories Are “Depleting Very Fast” And Global Supply Chain Stress Is Spiking -The Economic Collapse
We are watching a slow-motion train wreck play out right in front of our eyes, and nobody can stop it. Every single day that the Strait of Hormuz remains closed, commercial oil inventories will get even lower and national strategic oil reserves will get even lower. Right now the global economy is using more oil than it is producing, and everyone agrees that we are reaching a major crisis point.
Unfortunately, we may arrive at that major crisis point even sooner than many experts were originally projecting.
The head of the International Energy Agency is warning that commercial oil inventories are “depleting very fast”…
International Energy Agency Executive Director Fatih Birol warned that the tally of commercial oil inventories is shrinking at an accelerated pace.
“I think it is depleting very fast,” he told reporters at the sidelines of a meeting of Group of Seven finance ministers in Paris, echoing comments from last week. It will be “several weeks, but we should be aware of the fact that it is declining rapidly,” he said. READ MORE
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5.19.26 - Six Economic Disasters Waiting to Happen
Gold last traded at $4,482 an ounce. Silver at $73.77 an ounce.
EDITOR'S NOTE: Have you ever wondered what it would be like to see the future? I imagine it could feel like both a blessing and a curse. While this article may not literally predict what's ahead, it is certainly an insightful look at the growing economic pressures and potential disasters that could be waiting just around the corner.
6 Economic Disasters Waiting to Happen -Newsbreak
by Shally Akoth
America does not always hear an economic alarm before the floor starts shaking. Sometimes the warning comes quietly, through a grocery receipt that feels heavier than last month, a mortgage payment that swallows a paycheck, a credit card balance that refuses to shrink, or a government debt chart that climbs like ivy over an old wall. The danger is not one single crash waiting at the door. It is a cluster of slow-moving pressures, each one looking manageable alone, yet far more dangerous when they begin pulling on the same thread.
The scary part is that many of these risks already sit in plain sight. They are discussed in budget reports, bank data, housing updates, insurance tables, and labor market forecasts. The economy can still grow through them, but growth does not erase pressure. It only gives the country more time to fix what is cracking beneath the surface.
The national debt problem is no longer just a political talking point. It is becoming a math problem with teeth. The Congressional Budget Office projects a $1.9 trillion federal deficit in fiscal year 2026, rising to $3.1 trillion by 2036, with federal debt held by the public climbing from 101% of GDP in 2026 to 120% in 2036. That level would surpass the old post-World War Two high, which should make every budget watcher sit up straight.
The real danger is interest. A country can borrow for a long time when rates are low and growth is strong, but high interest costs turn debt into a treadmill. More tax dollars go toward paying yesterday’s bills instead of building roads, improving schools, strengthening health care, or responding to emergencies. If investors demand higher yields, the government pays more to borrow, deficits grow, and the cycle feeds itself. READ MORE
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5.18.26 - Billionaire Eric Sprott put 98% of his fortune in gold and silver
Gold last traded at $4,567 an ounce. Silver at $77.83 an ounce.
EDITOR'S NOTE: When billionaires like Eric Sprott put nearly their entire fortune into gold and silver, it's likely wise to take notice; especially when the reasoning centers on runaway debt, money printing, and weakening currencies. Precious metals are more than a trade; they are financial insurance in a world where paper assets and fiat currencies look increasingly fragile. With central banks aggressively buying gold and investors like Ray Dalio warning about the same risks, owning physical gold and silver looks less like speculation and more like preparation.
Billionaire Eric Sprott put 98% of his $3 billion fortune in gold and silver — and says gold is headed to $10,000 -Moneywise
by Godwin Oluponmile
Gold has had one of the greatest two-year runs in its history and the man who saw it coming says it's just getting started.
Eric Sprott, 81, was at his vacation rental in San Jose, Costa Rica in late January when Forbes checked in with him. This was right around the same time that silver had hit its all-time high of $100 an ounce, and Sprott wasn't impressed.
"I'm not a geologist — I know nothing about rocks, but I know about numbers...if the reward's a big reward I can afford to lose," he told Forbes (1). "I think the prices are going much higher, quite frankly. I think silver can easily go to $200, even $300. I think gold could go to $10,000."
Days later, silver dropped to $76 and gold had pulled back below $5,000, but Sprott was still unfazed.
Such equanimity is easier when you've spent four decades being right about precious metals. Eric Sprott doesn't claim to be a geologist, even after decades of success in the mining sector. When asked how he finds the next billion-dollar play, he keeps it simple: "Numbers took me there, numbers. You don't have to be a geologist (3). READ MORE
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