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10.16.26 - Was Shelton Hired to Build America’s Gold Response?

Gold last traded at $4,163 an ounce. Silver at $57.04 an ounce.

EDITOR'S NOTE: It's encouraging to finally see the US being discussed in the gold market for something other than the ongoing debate over whether the gold at Fort Knox is truly there. This time, the focus is on a proposed new gold-backed bond, an intriguing concept that deserves a closer look. As with any financial product, however, the devil is in the details, and concerns over liquidity and potential default risk could be significant drawbacks. Physical gold, by contrast, puts ownership directly in your hands without the added risks tied to an issuer's ability to meet its obligations.

Was Judy Shelton Hired to Build America's Gold Response? -ZeroHedge

Authored By a GoldFix Founder and Exec at a prominent Investment Firm

The recent appointment of Judy Shelton as Counsellor to the United States Treasury is intriguing. With her views on the overreach of the Fed, she’ll find herself in good company with the leadership at both the Fed and the Treasury. An agenda is taking place. Her appointment did not require Senate approval, proxies for the new economic orthodoxy, unlike the stalled gubernatorial nomination to the Fed in 2019/20. She has been specifically appointed to “advise the Secretary on currency policy, with a particular focus on evaluating financial conditions in China.”[1]

However, she is not a recognised expert on China. She is a currency expert and well known for her “unorthodox” views on monetary policy, including the Treasury Trust Bonds (TTBs), a USD Sovereign funding instrument linked to gold. Through this lens, we may speculate on the Counsellor’s likely involvement. As widely reported on Goldfix for some years and now leeching into the mainstream media[2], China appears to be building the infrastructure to allow for trade settlement within a gold envelope. China is rapidly building new export markets to minimise her dependence on the US and needs to build de-dollarised payment rails to these markets. This is entirely rational from a Chinese perspective. It is also entirely rational for an exporter of raw materials to China, and an importer of Chinese goods to prefer gold as a store of value to US Treasuries.

Enter the TTB. The idea is a long-dated bond that provides cheap funding to the US Treasury as it gives the holder the option to chose redemption in gold or USD. READ MORE

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10.15.26 - U.S. Treasury dismisses IMF debt warning

Gold last traded at $4,167 an ounce. Silver at $57.36 an ounce.

EDITOR'S NOTE: We now have agencies debating whose debt problem is worse when their focus should be on finding ways to address it. America's growing debt burden is no secret, and comparing the severity of the problem does little to move us any closer to a solution. What we need is decisive action, a realistic plan to rein in the debt, and progress toward a solution; and we needed it yesterday.

U.S. Treasury dismisses IMF debt warning and ‘messy’ forecasting -CNBC

by Jenni Reid and Anniek Bao

The International Monetary Fund should check its own forecasting record before criticizing U.S. fiscal policy, David Zervos, newly appointed counselor to the Treasury Secretary, said on Thursday.

“When we see pieces on the IMF, it’s good to remember how messy their forecasts have been in the past,” Zervos said in emailed comments to CNBC.

The former Wall Street economist was responding to the IMF’s Managing Director Kristalina Georgieva, who cautioned during the IMF-World Bank annual meetings in Bangkok on Wednesday that strong U.S. economic growth would not be sufficient to put mounting federal debt on a sustainable course.

Georgieva was herself responding to U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent, who told CNBC in August that the U.S. could “grow our way out” of a rising debt-to-GDP ratio, after government debt surpassed $40 trillion. READ MORE

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10.14.26 - Inflation and Market Bubbles

Gold last traded at $4,105 an ounce. Silver at $55.64 an ounce.

EDITOR'S NOTE: Inflation and market bubbles are becoming increasingly difficult to ignore, raising serious questions about the sustainability of today’s financial markets. What’s especially concerning is the growing acceptance of inflation as a “fact of life” in America, leaving households to absorb the ongoing erosion of their purchasing power while investors face growing uncertainty. No one knows exactly what lies ahead, but with persistent inflation and mounting concerns over an AI-driven market bubble, it’s worth asking how much longer these pressures can build before something finally gives.

How high inflation became a ‘fact of life’ in the U.S. -CNBC

by Alex Harring

U.S. consumers are in the midst of one of the longest stretches of elevated inflation of the past century. Some are beginning to act like it’s a new normal, raising alarm bells for members of the Federal Reserve.

Wednesday’s consumer price index release showed a 3.7% increase year over year in September. CPI has now registered around 65 months — that’s more than five years — of consecutive annual readings above 2%, a widely accepted target for inflation in the U.S.

This yearslong spell of high inflation has cast a dark cloud over everyday Americans’ view of the economy, and could shape everything from how they budget to how they vote in next month’s midterm elections. At the Fed, leaders are left questioning whether consumers’ inflationary expectations are becoming too entrenched to rein in.

“They’re starting to accept high inflation as just a fact of life,” Cleveland Fed President Beth Hammack wrote in a social media post last week. “That’s concerning.” READ MORE

Dowd: "Investment Bubbles Are A Feature Of Capitalism, Not A Bug" -ZeroHedge

Authored by Ed Dowd via Ed Dowd's Beyond The Narrative Substack

On Friday October 9th Bloomberg published an article titled "Jeffries' Chris Wood Sees 'Massive Capital Destruction' in AI." His view is that the most likely long-term outcome of the AI boom is massive capital destruction in the US, with market share shifting to cheaper open-source Chinese models. Wood has mostly got it right in my opinion except for two differences. My first difference is that Chinese models are not the only open-source models available and that western open-source models are closing the gap. Secondly, while his view correctly flags the overbuild and the competitive pressure from lower-cost alternatives what it leaves out is the long history of innovative technology infrastructure bubbles and the reliable pattern that follows them which is:

excitement/mania → overinvestment → financial collapse → distressed assets → recapitalized cheap infrastructure fuels the next economic wave.

In regard to the AI bubble, I believe we are currently in the overinvestment phase with cracks emerging. Let us look at some historical examples to illustrate the pattern and see if we can glean what the future of this current bubble might look like. READ MORE

Micron Stock Dips Amid AI Bubble Worries And China Competition -Watcher.Guru

by Paigambar Mohan Raj

Micron (MU) stock price has faced a dip, closing 3.62% (35.85 points) lower on Tuesday, October 13, 2026. The stock faced another 0.76% correction in the after-market hours. Micron (MU) is no the only company facing bearish market forces. Industry leaders SK Hynix and Samsung Electronics also faced losses on Tuesday. The dip comes amid increasing worries about a potential AI bubble. Let’s discuss what’s going on.

Micron’s (MU) latest price decline comes amid increased competition from China. ChangXin Memory Technologies (CXMT), China’s answer to Micron, SK Hynix, and Samsung, has announced a new memory-cell design. The new design can reportedly pack more storage into less physical space. Investors are likely expecting more production dominance from the Chinese semiconductor giant. ChangXin Memory Technologies (CXMT) aims to roll out its new memory chips by the end of this year. We could potentially see a new player among the “big three” in the memory market sector.

Even the world’s richest person, Elon Musk, weighed in on the development. Musk stated, “When China figures out how to manufacture a product, their ability to scale is often greater than the rest of the world combined.” Musk compared the situation to how Chinese companies dominated the lithium batteries and solar industries. Micron’s latest dip is likely a reaction to the rise in Chinese memory chip capacity. READ MORE

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10.13.26 - Is the 2027 COLA adjustment enough?

Gold last traded at $4,161 an ounce. Silver at $59.17 an ounce.

EDITOR'S NOTE: Social Security recipients are expected to receive a larger-than-usual benefits increase, but many say it still won't be enough to keep up with inflation. This has become a familiar reality for retirees, working Americans, and households across the country, as millions struggle to maintain their purchasing power and standard of living.

Social Security cost-of-living adjustment for 2027 may be above average. Some say it’s not enough -CNBC

by Lorie Konish

Millions of Social Security beneficiaries may see a larger than average cost-of-living adjustment in 2027, according to experts’ estimates.

The Social Security Administration is expected to announce the COLA for 2027 on Wednesday with the release of new government inflation data. Social Security experts estimate that the COLA may raise benefits by 3.5% to 3.6% next year, which would be the largest increase in three years.

Yet, even with an above-average increase, beneficiaries may still struggle to cover everyday costs.

More than three-quarters of adults 50 years and older — 76% — said they do not think a projected 3.5% Social Security cost-of-living adjustment for 2027 would be enough, according to an AARP survey published Monday. The poll of 1,023 adults ages 50-plus was fielded between Sept. 17 and 21. The survey had a 4.25% margin of error.

“I would love it if the cost-of-living increase was more generous,” said Donna Dalrymple, a 70-year-old retiree in Manchester, New Hampshire. READ MORE

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10.12.26 - Valuations are Echoing the Dot-Com Bubble

Gold last traded at $4,173 an ounce. Silver at $60.34 an ounce.

EDITOR'S NOTE: If you're among those concerned that the stock market may be in a bubble, recent valuations offer reason to take notice. Key market ratios are now echoing levels last seen during the dot-com bubble; despite years of steady gains and record highs. While that doesn’t guarantee an imminent correction, it is a reminder to take a closer look at your portfolio and consider how prepared you are if the market's momentum begins to turn.

Stock Market Crash Warning as Valuations Echo the Dot-Com Bubble -Watcher.Guru

by Loredana Harsana

Stock market crash fears are growing right now because the S&P 500 Shiller CAPE ratio has climbed back above 40x, its highest level since the dot-com bubble, when it peaked near 44x. That stretched S&P 500 valuation, along with the Nasdaq’s slide into a stock market correction, has turned into a clear stock market crash warning for a lot of investors, and history shows just how painful a reversal can get.

The Shiller CAPE ratio works like a price-to-earnings multiple for the S&P 500, averaging inflation-adjusted earnings over 10 years. When the dot-com bubble burst, it hit an all-time high of roughly 44x. At the time of writing, it’s back above 40x, as excitement around artificial intelligence pushed the S&P 500 valuation higher.

More stocks have hit 52-week lows than highs in recent trading, even on up days. That last happened just before the dot-com bubble burst, and the stock market crash that followed cut the S&P 500 by nearly 40% and the Nasdaq by nearly 80% over roughly three years. It’s a big part of today’s stock market crash warning. READ MORE

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10.9.26 - Russia to Increase Gold Purchases Fivefold

Gold last traded at $4,199 an ounce. Silver at $60.97 an ounce.

EDITOR'S NOTE: Gold prices may have cooled a bit recently, but global demand for physical gold tells a very different story. From aggressive buying to Russia’s plans to increase its gold and foreign currency purchases fivefold, the actions of major buyers speak volumes about how they view the risks building across the global economy. While paper markets may fluctuate, the continued push toward physical gold suggests that those with the resources to prepare are taking no chances when it comes to protecting their wealth.

Russia to Increase Gold/FX Purchases Fivefold -ZeroHedge

Authored by GoldFix

GFN – MOSCOW — Russia’s Finance Ministry will increase purchases of foreign currency and gold under the country’s budget rule by more than fivefold beginning October 7, with operations totaling 279.42 billion rubles through November 6.

The ministry said the new program will amount to 12.7 billion rubles per day, up from 2.5 billion rubles per day during the September 7–October 6 period, when total purchases were 55.6 billion rubles.

The increase follows stronger oil-and-gas revenues. The Finance Ministry expects 289.46 billion rubles in additional federal oil-and-gas revenue in October. After a 10.04 billion-ruble adjustment for September revenues, the resulting purchase amount is 279.42 billion rubles.

The Bank of Russia will also increase net foreign-currency purchases tied to the mechanism. After accounting for separate operations, daily net purchases will rise to 12.12 billion rubles from 1.92 billion rubles during the previous period.

Russia resumed purchases under the budget rule in May after a two-month pause in March and April. Daily purchases restarted at 5.8 billion rubles, rose to 9.9 billion in June, fell to 5.4 billion in July, and increased to 6.5 billion in August before dropping to 2.5 billion in September. READ MORE

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10.7.26 - Treasury Trouble, BRICS & Another Health Scare?

Gold last traded at $4,108 an ounce. Silver at $59.77 an ounce.

EDITOR'S NOTE: There are some interesting developments taking place on both the economic and global fronts that are worth watching closely. The Treasury is taking steps to help strengthen Treasury markets, which have been facing increased selling pressure and lackluster demand at recent auctions. At the same time, BRICS is now saying it is “not opposed to the U.S. dollar”; a statement that seems difficult to reconcile with the bloc’s ongoing push toward de-dollarization, greater use of domestic currencies, and alternatives to the dollar.

And then there’s the health front, where reports of a possible plague outbreak in Russia immediately bring back memories of COVID and raise questions about whether another global health crisis could be developing. Hopefully, this proves to be much ado about nothing; but given what the world experienced just a few years ago, it's certainly something worth keeping an eye on.

Why Did Treasury Just Hire the Architect of the Gold-Backed Bond? -ZeroHedge

by Phoenix Capital Research

In late September, Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent brought Judy Shelton into his office as Counselor to the Secretary.

Most of the coverage treated it as a personnel note about a longtime gold advocate. I think the more useful question is a simple one: why would Treasury want her, and why now?

Start with the problem Bessent is trying to solve.

Treasury has to sell trillions of dollars in long-term debt to finance a national debt that has passed $40 trillion. Investors are demanding more to hold it. On Monday, the 30-year Treasury yield hit 5.7%, its highest level since 2002. Treasury expanded its bond buyback program in August to bring those yields down, and it has had little lasting effect.

The traditional fixes for this problem run through the Federal Reserve: the Fed buys bonds, or it caps long-term yields directly. Both options hand the problem to the Fed, and both tend to weaken the dollar.

Judy Shelton has spent more than a decade designing a different fix. One that runs through Treasury.

In a 2012 paper for the Cato Journal, she proposed Treasury Trust Bonds: zero-coupon bonds that holders could redeem at maturity for either dollars or a fixed amount of gold. More recently, she has advocated a 50-year Treasury bond backed by U.S. gold reserves. Her argument is that investors would accept a lower interest rate in exchange for the gold option, which would reduce the government’s borrowing costs.

That is a very specific skill set. And it happens to match a very specific problem. READ MORE

BRICS Not Opposed To the US Dollar, Confirms Diplomat -Watcher.Guru

by Vinod Dsouza

Russian Ambassador to India Denis Alipov confirmed at the NDTV Defense Summit that the BRICS alliance is not opposed to the US dollar. He stressed that no member nation has spoken in an anti-Western tone at the September summit in India. Member countries have also not promoted any form of anti-Western agenda to push policies, he said.

The US dollar will remain as one of the primary currencies for trade within the BRICS bloc, confirmed Alipov. The diplomat explained that the alliance is like any other global organization that eventually wants to cater to the needs of the members. This is a complete U-turn from the bloc after actively seeking de-dollarization since 2022.

Alipov revealed that while options to use local currencies for trade are the primary goal, no BRICS member has opposed settling cross-border transactions in the US dollar. “It is an alternative to other global platforms and organizations, such as the G20, for example, and other international formats. And no one in BRICS has ever spoken in an anti-Western manner or promoted an anti-Western agenda,” he said.

“The discussion about the use of the US dollar is very indicative in this regard. No one is opposed to the use of the US currency. We, the BRICS countries, favor having alternatives provided by the use of national currencies,” the diplomat stressed. Therefore, the alliance is open to all forms of payments and will not sideline any currency for trade. The move will protect the dominance of the US dollar against any onslaught. READ MORE

Top Scientist Sounds Grim Alarm Over Russia’s ‘Plague’ Mystery -Yahoo.com

by Vic Verbalaitis

A top American biologist believes that Russia's mysterious pneumonic plague outbreak could actually be something much more sinister.

Kevin Esvelt, a biologist and professor at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology, theorized in a thread on X on Monday that the reports of an anti-plague institute employee dying from pneumonic plague don't add up.

"Russia's five-hospital quarantine, FSB involvement, and reported hazmat use in response to the death of a single researcher at a weapons-lineage Irkutsk lab are inconsistent with a lab-acquired plague infection, which would have been treated with prophylactic antibiotics," Esvelt, 44, wrote.

"Russian authorities have surely sequenced the Irkutsk pathogen, but refuse to identify it," he continued. "Physical lockdown indicates it cannot be controlled with prophylactic antibiotics, implying engineered pan-resistance or that it isn't plague at all." READ MORE

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10.5.26 - Hormuz Gridlock Risks Global Food Crisis

Gold last traded at $4,138 an ounce. Silver at $61.07 an ounce.

EDITOR'S NOTE: As we find ourselves several months into the tensions surrounding the Strait of Hormuz, concerns continue to mount over the systemic problems this disruption could create. One that may soon affect all of us is the growing risk of food shortages. The reality is that far more of the products we rely on every day, and the costs associated with them, pass through the Strait of Hormuz. With those disruptions continuing, the potential impact on prices and availability could be much greater than many realize.

Hormuz Gridlock Risks Global Food Crisis, International Chamber of Commerce Chief Says -Wall Street Journal

by Kimberley Kao

Disruptions to a vital shipping route in the Middle East have created an energy shock. Now, a global food security crisis is brewing, warns the secretary-general of the International Chamber of Commerce.

The monthslong conflict between Iran and the U.S. has curbed the flow of goods through the Strait of Hormuz, a waterway many countries rely on for imports of critical inputs like fertilizers and natural gas.

Focus has been on the resulting rise in oil prices, but it is potential food shortages the world should be paying attention to, said ICC secretary-general John Denton.

“People see this fundamentally through the prism of the battle between U.S. and Iran which is in a way theatrical, it is so overpowering,” Denton said. “The story which is the killer…is the fertilizer story.”

About one-third of global fertilizer shipments pass through the narrow waterway, creating potentially catastrophic knock-on effects for agricultural producers.

Available fertilizer capacity has fallen by nearly 40% since the strait was disrupted, removing 2.7 million tons from the market, said Denton, who sits on a United Nations taskforce attempting to broker a solution to unblock the Strait. READ MORE

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10.2.26 - Fed No Longer Projected to Hike Rates

Gold last traded at $4,137 an ounce. Silver at $60.26 an ounce.

EDITOR'S NOTE: If you are uncertain about where the economy is headed, it's understandable. We seem to be told one thing one day and something completely different the next. One of the latest examples is the Federal Reserve, which just weeks ago signaled that its recent rate hike was the first of several to come, yet markets are now projecting no additional hike at this month’s meeting? Lower rates may be good news for mortgages and borrowing costs, but it also makes me wonder: how clearly does the Fed really have its finger on the pulse of the economy?

Polymarket No Longer Projects Fed Reserve to Hike Interest Rates -Watcher.Guru

by Jaxon Gaines

The Federal Reserve is no longer projected to hike interest rates at the next FOMC meeting later this month, according to forecasts tracked by Polymarket. This comes after quotes from Fed representatives have revealed that there is currently no rush to raise rates again. Vice Chair Philip Jefferson said on Thursday that while he supported the US central bank’s interest rate increase last month, he does not see any urgency to make another move.

“Any future adjustments in policy should be determined by carefully examining trends in the data, the evolving outlook, and the balance of risks,” Jefferson said in the text of remarks to be delivered before the University of Virginia’s Darden School of Business. The Federal Reserve last raised its benchmark federal funds rate by 25 basis points to a target range of 3.75%–4.00% at its September 16 meeting.

There were concerns about another interest rate hike raised this week as Mortgage rates continued to rise. Indeed, mortgage rates have reached their highest levels since late 2023, as the global bond selloff wore on. The average 30-year fixed-rate mortgage was 7.6% as of Wednesday, according to Mortgage News Daily, up around 15 basis points from a week earlier. Rates haven’t been this high since November 2023. Further, rates have risen by 70 basis points in the last month alone. READ MORE

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