Swiss America: Gold Standard News Daily

7.8.26 - Economic Unraveling

Gold last traded at $4,077 an ounce. Silver at $58.29 an ounce.

EDITOR'S NOTE: The real challenge facing our nation isn't that one event will trigger a crisis; it's that we're witnessing a steady unraveling of our economy. From record debt and growing stress in the banking system to a stock market that appears increasingly detached from economic reality, the warning signs are everywhere. Yet instead of addressing these problems, far too little is being done to change course.

Two U.S. banks have already failed in 2026, and regulators warn of more strain ahead -Newsbreak

By Warren Cohen

Two U.S. banks have shut down so far in 2026, and federal regulators are flagging rising credit stress that could put more institutions at risk. Metropolitan Capital Bank & Trust in Chicago was closed by Illinois regulators in March, followed by Community Bank & Trust in LaGrange, Georgia, which was seized by the Georgia Department of Banking and Finance on May 1. Both closures triggered FDIC receiverships and deposit transfers to acquiring banks. The failures arrive as the Office of the Comptroller of the Currency and the Federal Reserve each warn that commercial real estate refinancing pressure and climbing past-due loan rates are straining parts of the banking system.

Bank failures are not routine. The United States went through long stretches in 2022 and 2023 with only a handful of closures, and each new failure draws scrutiny over whether it reflects an isolated problem or a systemic pattern. The two 2026 closures matter because they coincide with explicit warnings from two of the country’s top banking regulators about the same category of risk: commercial real estate loans coming due in a high-rate environment. READ MORE

US Debt Exceeds 100% of GDP for the first time since World War II -Armstrong Economics

by Martin Armstrong

The United States has crossed a milestone that Washington has spent decades pretending would never arrive. Federal debt held by the public has now exceeded 100% of GDP for the first time since the aftermath of the Second World War. According to the latest government data, debt held by the public reached approximately $31.27 trillion while the nation’s annual economic output totaled roughly $31.22 trillion, pushing the debt-to-GDP ratio to 100.2%. The Congressional Budget Office now projects debt held by the public will average 101% of GDP this year and continue climbing to 120% by 2036 if current law remains unchanged.

The media continues to compare today’s numbers with the end of World War II, but that comparison completely misses the point. After 1945, the United States emerged as the world’s dominant industrial power. Soldiers came home, factories shifted from producing tanks to automobiles, the population expanded rapidly, and economic growth far outpaced government borrowing. Debt declined because the nation was producing wealth. Today we are doing precisely the opposite. Washington continues borrowing during periods of economic expansion, not because the country faces an existential war, but because politicians refuse to tell voters that promises have become mathematically impossible to keep.

The numbers expose just how unsustainable the fiscal position has become. The Congressional Budget Office estimates the federal deficit will total roughly $1.9 trillion this fiscal year, equal to 5.8% of GDP. By 2036, annual deficits are projected to exceed $3.1 trillion, or 6.7% of GDP. Federal spending will consume 23.3% of GDP this year, while revenues amount to only 17.5%. Washington is spending approximately $1.33 for every dollar it collects. That gap is no longer the result of recession or emergency stimulus. It has become the permanent operating model of government. READ MORE

Famed economist Mohamed El-Erian says Wall Street is missing a major shift with implications for markets -Newsbreak

By Samuel O'Brient

Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent spoke at the Economic Club of New York on June 23. The event wasn't closely watched, but according to Mohamed El-Erian, more investors should be clued into what Bessent said in his remarks.

The famed economist and former co-CIO of PIMCO wrote in a New York Times op-ed that the global economic order may be shifting and that economists and finance pros are underestimating the market implications of recent policy changes.

"By laying out what until now seemed more like haphazard policy measures, Mr. Bessent put down a marker for how the United States plans to operate in a changing global economic system," he wrote. "In the process, he elevated both the scale and the scope of a systemic change that started in earnest during President Trump's first term, was sustained by President Joe Biden and is accelerating today."

El-Erian said there are a few paradigms under which markets operate. They include, "National economic capacity is critical to economic security," "Trade and investment openness must be strictly reciprocated," and "All of this must be aimed at visibly improving the welfare of American households." READ MORE

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7.7.26 - $26k-$75k Price Targets For Gold?

Gold last traded at $4,106 an ounce. Silver at $59.93 an ounce.

EDITOR'S NOTE: Now that gold has had time to stabilize at current levels, analysts have also had time to reassess the market and refine their outlook for where prices may be headed next. What many are projecting could be very encouraging for those who have already taken the prudent step of diversifying into precious metals. And if these forecasts prove accurate, they may represent only the opening chapter of a much larger move still to come.

Roadmap Exposes Shocking $26,000-$75,000 Price Targets For Gold -King World News

Otavio Costa: America has given me and my family opportunities we could only have dreamed of, and some of the most meaningful moments of my life have happened here.

I’m deeply grateful for that.

I hope my comments on the economy are never taken as a criticism of this country. Quite the opposite.

I believe it’s important to understand where we are today so we can have thoughtful conversations about the future.

One of the defining macro themes of the next decade, in my view, will be whether America can restore the fiscal and monetary discipline that made it the world’s financial leader. READ MORE

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7.6.26 - Vault Run Continues as Gold Inventory Plunges 30%

Gold last traded at $4,161 an ounce. Silver at $62.01 an ounce.

EDITOR'S NOTE: Gold may be off its all-time high, but demand for physical gold certainly isn't. That growing demand continues to highlight the disconnect between the paper gold market - where futures traders largely determine the spot price - and investors who are increasingly choosing to own physical metal. Even more telling, this surge in physical demand comes as gold inventories at COMEX continue to be rapidly depleted, underscoring the tightening supply of available bullion.

Vault Run Continues As Comex Gold Inventory Plunges 30% -King World News

by Alasdair Macleod

A remarkable vault run is continuing as Comex gold inventory has plunged an astonishing 30%.

Trading conditions on Comex suggest that gold and silver bears are about to be squeezed — potentially viciously. If so, then prices measured in fiat currencies have bottomed.

Let’s start with gold. This week, the price has rallied from a low of $4050 on 30th June to $4170 this morning. As is the case in silver the July contract and option series on Comex expired this week, an event which usually leads to a sell-off. That pressure on prices has ended.

As the chart above illustrates, it leaves open interest in the gold contract the lowest it has been since the run-up to the December 2015 low of $1050. This tells us that speculators who sell dollars to buy paper gold are even more absent as they were then, which was the springboard for a decade long $4500 dollar rise. In other words, they will buy gold futures, adding potentially 300,000—400,000 contracts to take it back into oversold territory. VIEW CHARTS AND READ MORE

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7.2.26 - Central banks remain committed to gold

Gold last traded at $4,123 an ounce. Silver at $60.91 an ounce.

EDITOR'S NOTE: Those who already own physical gold are seeing their strategy validated as central banks continue accumulating the metal even at record prices. When the world's largest financial institutions keep increasing their gold reserves, it's a powerful reminder of gold's enduring role as a store of wealth. If you haven't added physical gold to your portfolio yet, now is the time to consider following the same path toward greater diversification and long-term financial protection.

Central bank gold statistics: Central banks remain committed to gold -Gold.org

by Marissa Salim

Central banks were back in buying mode in May – and with a little more spring in their step. Based on the latest reported data, official gold reserves increased by a net 41t during the month, with purchases once again concentrated among a familiar cast of buyers (Chart 1).

Much of the activity was driven by Poland (18t) and China (10t), with Uzbekistan and Kazakhstan also continuing their monthly net gold buying activity. Singapore also rejoined the list of buyers, reporting a net purchase of 4t, its first monthly net purchase since September 2025. Meanwhile, net sellers for the month were Turkey (3t) and Russia (6t) with y-t-d sales of 81t and 34t respectively.

Year-to-date, Poland has accumulated 64t of gold, followed by Uzbekistan and China at 33t and 25t respectively. Kazakhstan, a close fourth, has accumulated 20t y-t-d.

Despite the recent developments, central bankers remained positive on the role of gold in their reserves. As published in our ninth Central Bank Gold Reserves Survey 2026, 89% of central bankers expect global gold reserves to increase in the next 12 months. Meanwhile, a record high 45% of central bankers expect their own institution’s gold reserves to increase over the next 12 months (Chart 2). VIEW CHARTS AND READ MORE

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7.1.26 - The calm before the storm?

Gold last traded at $4,036 an ounce. Silver at $59.03 an ounce.

EDITOR'S NOTE: When it comes to gold prices and the economy, it feels like both are experiencing the calm before the storm. The economy appears to be in a temporary holding pattern that could shift quickly once underlying pressures begin to surface, while gold's recent pause may be setting the stage for its next major move higher. If history has taught investors anything, it's that waiting until momentum returns often means paying a higher price. Read below and decide for yourself.

Where Are Gold Prices Headed in the Second Half of the Year? -Investopedia

by Robert Frank

Where has the bullion bull gone, and will it return? Investors are likely wondering.

Gold was already limping along when the Federal Reserve's new chair, Kevin Warsh, handed the market a hawkish message earlier this month, driving Wall Street to pencil in the possibility of higher interest rates and sending precious metals to fresh lows. The Fed's redoubled commitment to taming inflation took some shine off gold because yield-bearing assets such as Treasury notes tend to be relatively more attractive in high interest-rate environments.

Spot gold prices, recently at around $4,033 per troy ounce, have fallen about 7% since the beginning of the year and are down 28% from their January record of $5,600. Silver, whose rally was even more powerful than gold's last year, is down roughly 50% from its all-time high of around $122, and off 17% year-to-date. Those losses are a stark contrast to the performance of the precious metals last year, when gold and silver gained about 65% and 150%, respectively, and were among the top performing financial assets. READ MORE

Gary Shilling, who called the 1969 recession, says another downturn is "almost inevitable" by the end of 2026

by David Keller

Gary Shilling, the economist who correctly identified the onset of the recession that peaked in December 1969 and bottomed out in November 1970, is now warning that a new economic contraction is "almost inevitable" before the end of 2026. His forecast puts households, business owners, and investors on notice at a time when spending and borrowing decisions hinge on whether the economy can sustain its current expansion. The weight of that warning rests on a track record tied to one of the most studied downturns in postwar American history.

Shilling's reputation as a forecaster is anchored to a specific, verifiable event. The official chronology from the National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) dates the business cycle peak of that downturn to December 1969 and the trough to November 1970. Calling that turn before it arrived placed Shilling among a small group of analysts who read the signals correctly when consensus opinion leaned the other way.

That episode was not a minor blip. In a retrospective chapter on the 1969–70 contraction, the NBER examined how tight monetary policy, slowing industrial production, and weakening demand combined to tip the economy into recession. The bureau’s historical work on that period, published in its volume on the business cycle, stressed the way restrictive credit conditions filtered through to factories, inventories, and eventually employment. The fact that Shilling identified those pressures in advance is the foundation of his current credibility when he says similar forces are building again.

His present claim carries a specific deadline: a recession before December 2026. For anyone making hiring plans, signing long-term leases, or deciding whether to lock in fixed-rate debt, that timeline is close enough to force real choices. A wrong call means missed opportunity from excessive caution-postponed expansion, underinvestment, or staying on the sidelines as competitors gain share. A right call means those who ignored the warning face layoffs, margin compression, and falling asset values just as credit becomes more expensive and revenue growth slows. READ MORE

If Gold Breaks Decisively Above This Price It Means Gold Has Bottomed -King World News

Ole Hansen, Head of Commodity Strategy at SaxoBank: The cost of leveraged equity positions is surging: Gold's rebound above $4,000 appears to reflect a combination of short covering after the break below last week's low at $3,960 failed to attract sustained follow-through selling, together with some bottom fishing as energy prices continue to ease amid the risk of a short-term glut helping to ease inflation worries further.

Jeroen Blokland: Gold is not about cash flows, transactions, or valuations.

It is about trust derived from scarcity. For centuries, gold has been at the core of many monetary systems, providing stability and trust.

Time and again, policymakers have put that trust to the test by structurally hollowing out the store of value required to keep those systems afloat. From Roman emperors and English kings to the heavily indebted, rapidly aging societies we see today.

Today, only about one-quarter of the unprecedented amount of fiat money in circulation is backed by the value of all the gold above ground. So, not just the gold held by central banks, but all gold. In fact, central banks together own less than one-fifth of all the gold ever mined.

While the recovery may increase confidence in holding longs, prices first need to break above USD 4,100 before it is reasonable to consider that a low may have been established…READ MORE

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6.30.26 - 3 reasons UBS sees gold surging 30%

Gold last traded at $4,026 an ounce. Silver at $59.52 an ounce.

EDITOR'S NOTE: UBS believes rising economic uncertainty and changing market conditions could create more challenges for traditional retirement portfolios over time. That's why many retirement-minded investors include gold as part of a diversification strategy to help balance risk and preserve purchasing power. The objective isn’t to replace assets, it's to build a more resilient portfolio designed to weather different market cycles.

3 reasons UBS sees gold surging 30% in the next year -Business Insider

by William Edwards

After a rough patch for gold, UBS says the precious metal is set to surge about 28% over the next 12 months.

Gold prices are down 23% since their January highs to around $4,040 an ounce, following a 150% gain from early 2024 to early 2026.

But in a June 25 note, UBS said a mix of three factors should drive a recovery in prices to about $5,200 an ounce.

First, the bank said that investors are overestimating the hawkishness of the Federal Reserve after Kevin Warsh's first meeting as the central bank's chairman. The Fed's next move is more likely to be a cut than a hike, the bank said, and when those expectations shift, it should be a boon for gold.

The Fed tends to cut interest rates when the economy needs a boost, which is also when investors might seek out safe haven assets like gold. UBS said they expect economic growth in slow over the next year.

Second, the US dollar should weaken as long positioning in the currency is "stretched," and as fiscal deficits continue to rise.

"A weaker dollar has historically been a powerful tailwind for gold," Ulrike Hoffmann-Burchardi, the bank's global head of equities, said in the note. READ MORE

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6.29.26 - Sovereign capital turning to gold

Gold last traded at $4,016 an ounce. Silver at $58.32 an ounce.

EDITOR'S NOTE: As some of the world’s largest sovereign investors rethink long-term reliance on the U.S. dollar and increase interest in gold, many investors are taking notice of what that could signal for the future of wealth preservation. If institutions managing trillions are positioning for greater diversification and resilience, it raises an important question about whether individual portfolios should do the same. For those looking to strengthen their financial hedge, physical gold continues to stand out as a time-tested asset for protecting purchasing power through periods of economic and currency uncertainty.

Gold demand set to climb as $29 trillion in sovereign capital rethinks dollar reliance -Investing Live

by Eamonn Sheridan

The world's largest sovereign investors are buying gold not as a trade but as an answer to a dollar they no longer fully trust.

The one-third of surveyed institutions planning to add gold represents a demand signal with genuine price implications: central banks and sovereign wealth funds operate at a scale where even incremental allocation shifts move the market, and the stated intention to increase holdings comes on top of two years of already elevated official sector buying. The tripling of central banks citing US debt as a negative for the dollar's reserve role, from 20% in 2024 to 61% now, is the structural driver behind the gold pivot rather than a short-term tactical call, which makes it stickier and harder to reverse. With the bond-equity diversification relationship having broken down during recent inflation shocks, gold is filling the portfolio role that fixed income can no longer reliably play for sovereign allocators.

The custodian review findings add a further dimension: institutions quietly unwinding reliance on US financial infrastructure are simultaneously building non-dollar reserve buffers, and gold's status as a neutral, sanction-proof asset sits directly in the path of that trend. For bullion markets, the combination of structural sovereign demand, dollar reserve anxiety, and geopolitical fragmentation argues for a well-supported price floor even as near-term energy price relief reduces one source of inflationary pressure. READ MORE

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6.26.26 - Most expensive market in 'American history'

Gold last traded at $4,070 an ounce. Silver at $58.61 an ounce.

EDITOR'S NOTE: When seasoned investors start calling this the most expensive market in American history, I pay attention; not because I fear volatility, but because I believe preparation beats reaction every time. If valuations are stretched and risk is rising, this is exactly why portfolio protection matters and why we continue to view physical precious metals as a strategic hedge rather than a speculative trade. Wealth isn't built by chasing crowded markets, it's preserved by owning assets designed to endure when sentiment shifts.

Jeremy Grantham says this is the most expensive market in ‘American history’ -CNBC

by Deena Zaidi

Veteran investor Jeremy Grantham thinks the artificial intelligence boom has pushed the U.S. stock market to its most expensive level ever and could eventually lead to a historic decline.

“Based on the value of the stock market compared to GDP, with modifications, this is the most expensive market in American history,” Grantham told CNBC’s “Squawk Box.”

While the GMO co-founder said he wasn’t sure there was a comparable period, the tech bubble of 2000 is the closest analogy. He also highlighted the so-called Buffet indicator, which compares the total value of the U.S. stock market valuation with the size of the economy in terms of GDP.

The market capitalization to GDP ratio referenced by Grantham is estimated to be at 235%, according to Longtermtrends.com. It means that the value of the total stock market is more than two times the size of the U.S. economy.

Legendary investor Warren Buffett used this indicator, saying years ago that when it “approaches 200% — as it did in 1999 and a part of 2000 — you are playing with fire.” READ MORE

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6.25.26 - Will digital euro reduce US dominance?

Gold last traded at $4,026 an ounce. Silver at $57.86 an ounce.

EDITOR'S NOTE: One of the biggest concerns surrounding the continued rise and expansion of BRICS nations is that if the EU were ever to move in that direction, it could mark a major turning point for the US dollar’s global dominance. While there have only been early signs and speculation that some European countries have considered the idea, nothing definitive has materialized. What is becoming increasingly clear, however, is that interest in reducing reliance on the dollar is growing and investors who recognize these shifts early may be in the strongest position to protect and position their wealth.

European Parliament backs long-awaited digital euro to reduce US dominance in payments -Euro News

By Eleonora Vasques

The digital currency is expected to launch by 2029, in a push to bolster European autonomy in payments away from the dominance of the US dollar.

The European Parliament's Economic and Monetary Affairs Committee approved the long-awaited digital euro on Tuesday, as the EU seeks to reduce its reliance on US-controlled payment systems.

According to European Central Bank (ECB) data, US payment giants Visa and Mastercard account for 61% of card payments in the euro area and almost all cross-border card transactions.

The debate over Europe's financial sovereignty has gained momentum amid growing geopolitical tensions and concerns about the bloc's dependence on foreign payment infrastructure.

The digital euro is one of the measures put forward to strengthen Europe's strategic autonomy. It would be a digital form of central bank money, issued and backed by the ECB, designed to complement cash and existing banking services rather than replace them.

Under the proposal, consumers would be able to hold digital euros in a dedicated wallet, subject to a holding limit that has yet to be determined. READ MORE

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