October Blog Archives 2019

Gold last traded at $1,514 an ounce. Silver at $18.06 an ounce.

NEWS SUMMARY: Precious metal prices jumped nearly 1% Thursday on safe-haven buying and dollar weakness. U.S. stocks fell despite better-than-expected earnings and the Fed’s third rate cut of 2019.

Gold presses back above $1,500 as trade jitters return -Marketwatch
"Gold prices moved higher Thursday, finding haven-related support after a news report said China officials have doubts over prospects for a long-term trade deal with the U.S. 'News that China might not be able to enter into a long term trade deal with the U.S., a 6th straight negative Chinese factory activity report, and economic uncertainty from soft German retail sales and soft Japanese construction orders' all contributed to haven support for the precious metal, said analysts at Zaner Metals....'Gold is rallying on expectations the U.S.-China trade war will not be ending anytime soon,' said Edward Moya, senior market analyst at Oanda, in a note. 'China basically said what everyone was already thinking, that this trade war will likely drag beyond the 2020 U.S. presidential election and this big macro risk will keep gold supported,' he said....'It would appear as if both markets took the Fed action...as a sign that the world economy is still at risk,' said analysts at Zaner Metals."

Markets Spooked By Report China Doubts Trade Deal Is Ever Possible -Zero Hedge
"S&P futures reversed overnight gains, and European stocks slumped on Thursday after a Bloomberg report that China doubts the possibility of a long-term trade deal with President Donald Trump. And one day after they all slumped following the Fed's latest rate cut which pushed stocks to all time highs, safe haven assets including bonds, gold and the yen all advanced. US index futures all reversed sharply, wiping out most of the post-FOMC gains, and Europe's Stoxx 600 turned lower, with basic resources, energy and autos leading European indices into the red after Bloomberg reported Chinese officials have warned they won't budge on the thorniest trade issues and remain concerned about 'Trump's impulsive nature and the risk he may back out of even the limited deal both sides say they want to sign in the coming weeks.'....Early on Thursday, China's National Bureau of Statistics reported that in October, China's manufacturing PMI slumped deeper into contraction, dropping from 49.8 to 49.3...Worse, the Non-manufacturing PMI tumbled sharply, and after its biggest drop in almost a year, dipped to 52.8 from 53.6, and is now just shy of the lowest print since the financial crisis."

Fed would need to see a 'really significant' rise in inflation before hiking rates -CNBC
"Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell said Wednesday that the central bank would need to see a sustained and significant uptick in price pressures before considering future rate hikes. 'We just touched 2% core inflation to pick one measure. Just touched it for a few months and then we've fallen back,' Powell said from Washington. 'So I think we would need to see a really significant move up in inflation that's persistent before we would consider raising rates to address inflation concerns.' He also detailed the Fed's decision to cut interest rates for the third time in 2019, saying that officials 'see the current stance of monetary policy as likely to remain appropriate.'"

Consumers prop up U.S. economy as business spending retrenches -Reuters
"U.S. economic growth slowed in the third quarter as a further contraction in business investment was offset by resilient consumer spending, further allaying financial market fears of a recession....'An orderly economic slowdown is in progress,' said Sung Won Sohn, a business economics professor at Loyola Marymount University in Los Angeles. 'Unfortunately, businesses do not share the same optimism consumers have.' The Trump administration's trade war with China has eroded business confidence, contributing to the second straight quarterly contraction in business investment....Gross domestic product increased at a 1.9% annualized rate in the third quarter, also as businesses maintained a steady pace of inventory accumulation....Growth in consumer spending, which accounts for more than two-thirds of U.S. economic activity, slowed to 2.9% rate last quarter after surging at a 4.6% pace in the second quarter...But moderating job growth, ebbing consumer confidence and stalling wage gains are raising doubts about the consumer's resilience."

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Gold last traded at $1,490 an ounce. Silver at $17.74 an ounce.

NEWS SUMMARY: Precious metal prices rose Wednesday on safe-haven buying ahead of the Fed's statement. U.S. stocks slipped as investors digested economic data and awaited the Fed's decision on interest rates.

Gold edges higher ahead of Fed decision -Marketwatch
"Gold prices were clinging to a small gain Wednesday after data showed third-quarter gross domestic product grew at a faster-than-expected pace, while investors awaited the outcome of a Federal Reserve meeting that's expected to deliver the third interest rate cut this year....The data showed third-quarter U.S. gross domestic product expanded at a 1.9% annual pace, slowing from 2% in the second quarter but coming in above the average forecast by economists for growth of 1.6%. The Fed concludes a two-day policy meeting Wednesday and is widely, though not universally, expected to deliver a quarter-point interest rate cut, its third of the year....Fed monetary policy easing is seen as a positive for gold for a variety of reasons, including downward pressure on bond yields, which reduces the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding assets like commodities. Lower interest rates can also put pressure on the U.S. dollar, making gold and other commodities priced in the product less expensive to users of other currencies."

The Fed Needs Trust, Not Tactics -Wall Street Journal
"There's nothing soft about soft power...The term, coined by Harvard's Joseph Nye more than three decades ago, refers to the influence a country wields through attraction, not coercion....Soft power emanates from a nation's people: their culture, content and character. Soft power also resides in strong institutions: companies, universities and government agencies. The Federal Reserve is steeped in soft power. A central bank's soft power amplifies its good policies and mitigates its errors. Its soft power should not be neglected or presumed....Growing threats to the Fed's soft power should remain top of mind. Former Treasury Secretary Lawrence Summers recently described the current 'monetary policy black hole,' in which central banks are unable to provide much more support for the economy....Central banks now find themselves in the middle of a host of troubling economic circumstances that would have been hard to imagine a generation ago."

The Origins of Banking's Unholy Alliance With the Federal Government -American Spectator
"A decade after the 2008 taxpayer bailout, Americans remained skeptical of banks. According to a 2018 survey, one-third of the public had 'hardly any confidence in bank leaders' as compared to 10 percent before the bailout. In reality, the rescue was merely one symptom of a protracted alliance between banks and the federal government. It dates from the 1863 National Banking Act during the Civil War. Banking evolved among merchants in the mid-17th century...Merchants preferred to deposit their gold with private goldsmiths, who issued warehouse receipts to each depositor. Such receipts essentially became paper money and were preferred in many transactions in place of bulky coins. Even though the currency was paper, it could be redeemed on demand at the goldsmith for gold. Soon the smiths realized that most of their receipts would remain in circulation and would rarely be presented for redemption. That meant they could lend money in the form of newly issued receipts and maintain a gold inventory equal to only a fraction of the face value of receipts outstanding....Enormous Civil War financing requirements impelled changes to the monetary system. Eventually taxes met only 25 percent of the needs. The first attempt to fill the gap between spending and tax revenue was to print currency. Thus, in 1862 the federal government started issuing greenbacks. Although not redeemable in gold, greenbacks became the common currency by fiat...Since Treasury Secretary Salmon Chase realized that Americans might be skeptical of a fiat currency, he proposed to make it more palatable by adding the 'In God We Trust' motto to greenback bills....57 percent of war financing came from Treasury-issued federal war bonds...Banks were delighted to substitute bonds for gold as a reserve because bonds paid interest whereas gold did not. It was windfall income that increased in lockstep with rising federal debt - a pattern that continues to this day....The long-term result has been an unholy alliance between the U.S. Treasury and the national banks that nearly collapsed during the 2008 financial crisis. Banks still eagerly buy every new issue of federal bonds. They are basically paid to help the government perpetually increase the national debt."

Manufacturing Is Now Smallest Share of U.S. Economy in 72 Years -Bloomberg
"Manufacturing made up 11% of gross domestic product in the second quarter, the smallest share in data going back to 1947 and down from 11.1% in the prior period, a Commerce Department report showed Tuesday. Figures before 2005 were for full years only. The latest number compares with 13.4% for real estate, 12.8% for professional and business services and 12.3% for governments, according to the figures on GDP by industry. Once a powerhouse of the U.S. economy, making up about a quarter of GDP in the 1960s, the manufacturing sector has steadily declined in importance. Trump promised to deliver 'victory' to factory workers by bringing production jobs back to the U.S. While manufacturing has added about half a million workers on the whole since Trump took office, states like Pennsylvania and Wisconsin that helped him win in 2016 are now losing factory jobs amid a persistent trade war with China and a weaker global economy."

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Gold last traded at $1,491 an ounce. Silver at $17.82 an ounce.

NEWS SUMMARY: Precious metal prices steadied Tuesday as investors awaited Fed rate decision. U.S. stocks rose, with the S & P index hitting a fresh high.

Triggers for the next gold price rally; why $3,000 is very real -Kitco
"Gold prices are not due for a correction, and a further rally towards $2,000 could happen if certain triggers in the economy are pulled, said John Kaiser of Kaiser Research Online. 'The reason for gold to reprice into the $2,000 to $3,000 range is linked to this uncertainty, just growing and growing, and what will be the trigger that suddenly makes people say, Humpty Dumpty has fallen off the wall, and nothing will ever put them together again, and then start buying gold because there is no alternative really to the U.S. dollar,' Kaiser told Kitco News on the sidelines of the Xplor Mining Convention. Long-term, the future of the mining and resource sector depends on a new wave of investors and speculators, and millennials and future generations need to adopt a familiarity with the industry for this to happen, Kaiser said."

Three Things You Didn't Know About The Crash Of 1929 -Black/Zero Hedge
"The US stock market had peaked the previous month, on September 3, 1929, with the Dow Jones stock index reaching a record high of 381. But throughout September and October, nervous investors began pulling their money out of the market. And over a three day period in late October (including Black Monday), the market lost more than 30% of its value. Ninety years later, I thought it would be prudent to look at three key insights from that historic crash, starting with: 1) Stocks are more overvalued today than they were in 1929. Back in 1929, the price/earnings ratio of the average company trading on the New York Stock Exchange was about 15...Today it’s 30....2) Stocks fell by nearly 90% in 1929… and it took decades to recover. The 'crash' wasn't isolated to Black Monday. From the peak in September 1929, stocks ultimately fell nearly 90% over the next three years. The Dow bottomed out in 1932 at just 42 points...If that were to happen today, it means the Dow would fall to just 2,700… a level it hasn't seen since the early 1990s. And it wouldn't return to today's highs until the mid 2040s....3) Adjusted for inflation, stocks have returned just 1.7% per year since 1929....Every single year your money loses around 2% of its value....It's interesting to note that, when adjusted for inflation, GOLD has outperformed stocks over the long run. When adjusted for inflation, gold has averaged a 1.8% return since 1929 (slightly higher than stocks), and a 6.7% return since 1999 - more than 3x as much as stocks. But unlike stocks, people who own gold haven't had to put up with the same risks."

Most Families Don't Have Enough Emergency Savings -New York Times
"Six weeks of take-home pay. That's how much cash families should aim to set aside to ride out gyrations in their income and expenses, a new analysis from JPMorgan Chase’s research arm finds. The recommendation, based on an analysis of millions of Chase checking accounts, is considerably less than the traditional rule of thumb of three to six months of take-home pay. But even so, most households fall short, the report found: About two-thirds lack the recommended buffer. To cushion against a simultaneous spike in expenses and dip in income, a middle-income family needs about $5,000 in a rainy-day fund but has just $2,000 - a gap of $3,000. Lower-income families need about $2,500 but have just $700....Many savings experts urge people to have a fixed amount from each paycheck automatically transferred to a savings account....And remember: Unlike a retirement fund, an emergency fund is meant for current needs. Draw on it when you have to repair a car or pay a doctor’s bill, then keep saving to replenish it."

The left raises hell -- for real -Ponte/WND
"One minute before midnight on Oct. 25, as many as 13,000 witches who call themselves #MagicResistance will conjure 'demons of the infernal realms' to empower their magic spell to 'bind' President Donald Trump. Call these witches 'Demoncrats,' fury-filled left-wing activists from the 'dark side of the force' who want America ruled by the minions of hell, by the demons. Since it began, the utopian progressive movement has repudiated God and religious morality, seeking instead a man-made godless humanist religion in which humans are 'the measure of all things.'....This ancient paganism, hid underground during centuries of Christianity, today is surfacing and growing 'astronomically.' Witches in America now outnumber Presbyterians....Their spell to overthrow President Trump by magic comes exactly six months after the Internal Revenue Service gave tax-exempt status as a church to the Satanic Temple headquartered in Salem, Massachusetts, where in 1692 witch hysteria led to executions by order of clerics graduated from Harvard University....Pray to protect President Trump, and America, from evil."

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Gold last traded at $1,495 an ounce. Silver at $17.87 an ounce.

NEWS SUMMARY: Precious metal prices eased back Monday on upbeat China trade deal rumors. U.S. stocks rose, with the S&P 500 hitting a new record, as investors cheered strong earnings and progress on U.S.-China trade.

Why Investors Are Monitoring Gold During Packed Week of Data -Wall Street Journal
"The 2019 rally in gold appears to be at a crossroads in the final week of October, increasing attention on how the safe-haven metal performs during a packed slate of economic data points. Gold prices are up 17% for the year, supported by bets on lower interest rates that make gold more attractive to yield-seeking investors who are less likely to miss out on outsize returns from bonds when interest rates fall....The rally in riskier assets like stocks and industrial commodities such as oil will be tested this week by data on consumer confidence and spending, Wednesday's Federal Reserve decision and October hiring figures slated for Friday. The Fed is expected to lower interest rates for the third time this year, and analysts will be watching for clues on the central bank's future plans for rates amid worries that easing monetary policy still won't spur economic growth without more clarity on trade policy. Fresh signs that a manufacturing slowdown is rippling to other parts of the economy could halt the stock-market rally and send investors back toward the safety of bonds and gold, analysts say."

"The Fed Is Panicking To Stop A Depression" -Pento/Zero Hedge
"Economist and money manager Michael Pento says the recent Federal Reserve about-face in policy with cutting rates and new QE (money printing) means only one thing....Why the sudden burst of money printing when we are being told the economy is fine? Pento says the Fed is panicking to stop a 'depression.' That's right, a depression....Pento predicts the debt bubble will implode at some point, and it will be felt everywhere on the planet. Pento says, 'When this thing implodes, we are all screwed. On a global scale, we have never before created such a magnificent bubble. These central bankers are clueless, and they have proven that beyond a doubt. All they can do is to try to keep the bubble going...'"

Why Elites Are Winning the War on Cash -Rickards/Daily Reckoning
"The global elites are pushing negative interest rates and inflation to make your money disappear. The whole idea of the war on cash is to force savers into digital bank accounts so their money can be taken from them in the form of negative interest rates. Of course, these efforts are always portrayed in the most favorable light. Governments always use money laundering, drug dealing and terrorism as an excuse to keep tabs on honest citizens and deprive them of the ability to use money alternatives such as physical cash, gold and these days, cryptocurrencies. But the so-called 'cashless society' is just a Trojan horse for a system in which all financial wealth is electronic and represented digitally in the records of a small number of megabanks and asset managers. Once that is achieved, it will be easy for state power to seize and freeze the wealth, or subject it to constant surveillance, taxation and other forms of digital confiscation. That's what they won't tell you. The war on cash has two main thrusts. The first is to make it difficult to obtain cash in the first place. U.S. banks will report anyone taking more than $3,000 in cash as engaging in a 'suspicious activity' using Treasury Form SAR (Suspicious Activity Report). The second thrust is to eliminate large-denomination banknotes....That's why it's a good idea to keep some of your liquidity in paper cash (while you can) and gold or silver coins. The gold and silver coins in particular will be money good in every state of the world."

7 in 10 millennials say they would vote for a socialist -The Hill
"Seventy percent of millennials in a new poll say that they are somewhat or extremely like to vote for a socialist candidate. The YouGov - Victims of Communism Memorial Foundation poll released on Monday also found that 50 percent of millennials, defined as between the ages of 23 and 38, and 51 percent of Generation Z, or those ages 16 to 22, have a somewhat or very unfavorable view of capitalism, an increase of 8 and 6 percentage points, respectively, from last year....YouGov also found that one in three Millennials perceive communism as 'favorable.'....Only 44 percent of Generation X, 33 percent of baby boomers and 33 percent of the silent generation said they were somewhat or extremely likely to vote for a socialist candidate....Capitalism is still viewed more favorably than other economic systems, holding relatively steady at 61 percent favorability from 2018, pollsters found. However, the survey found that millennials do not have as many negative connotations about socialism and communism as older generations who lived through the Cold War."

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Gold last traded at $1,505 an ounce. Silver at $17.92 an ounce.

NEWS SUMMARY: Precious metal prices traded mixed Friday as upbeat China trade news boosted the dollar. U.S. stocks rose as investors cheered strong quarterly earnings from Intel along with apparent progress on the U.S.-China trade front.

If Silver Is the New Gold, Now Is a Good Time to Buy -Barrons
"Silver prices have fallen 9% from this year's highs - an opportunity for investors to buy the metal that has outperformed gold so far this month. 'If you are bullish on gold's future prospects, silver is going to provide you with upside leverage with relatively low risks at these price levels,' says Peter Spina, president of silver news and analysis provider SilverSeek.com. 'The risk-to-reward appeal in silver is one of the best opportunities in a decade.' Silver prices settled at $17.804 an ounce on Thursday. It's down 9% from the $19.547 settlement on Sept. 4 - the highest in almost three years. Silver is trading 4.7% higher so far this month, while gold has gained 2.2%. Silver prices are catching up to gold's rise this year, trading 14.6% higher versus gold's 17.4% climb. The silver price rally that began in May pulled the gold-silver ratio away from highs in the 90s, while the long-term average is about 65, says Johann Wiebe, lead metals analyst on the GFMS team at Refinitiv, a global financial data provider. 'So there is plenty of room for silver to make that up in comparison to gold,' he says. At Thursday’s price, it would take about 85 ounces of silver to buy one ounce of gold priced at $1,504.70. That's down from a summer peak of roughly 95 ounces....Global silver demand rose by 4% in 2018 to reach a three-year high at 1.03 billion ounces, while global silver mine production fell for a third straight year, by 2%, to 855.7 million ounces last year."

How The U.S. Stock Market May Be 'Turning Japanese' -The Fedler Report
"To me, a 'bubble,' as Jeremy Grantham defined it, is a move that takes valuations more than two standard deviations away from their long-term average. Mathematically, a move of this magnitude should only happen about 5% of the time in markets. A 'mania,' on the other hand, is defined as excessive enthusiasm. I would take it a step further and suggest that a mania in the financial markets is marked by excessive enthusiasm that leads to belief in the impossible that allows for a bubble to form. Based on our definition of a bubble, it's clear that the stock market met this criterion back in 2000 and meets it again today:"

"Twenty years ago the mania that drove prices to bubble territory was the false believe that it didn't matter what prices investors paid for fast-growing internet stocks; so long as they bought in before it was too late they would certainly make a fortune over time. Today, the mania driving prices to bubble territory is the false belief that it doesn't matter what price investors pay for equities via passive funds; so long as they hold on they will be entitled to the historical rate of return and, if prices ever decline, they will always come back....The false belief in 2000 was disabused when the Nasdaq 100 Index fell 80% in just 30 months and the majority of the most popular dotcom stocks went to zero. My fear is that for today's false belief to be disabused it may require a much more protracted decline than either of the bear markets we have witnessed since the peak of the dotcom mania in which prices many years from now remain below today's highs....After hitting 140% of GDP back in early-1990, the value of Japanese equities, as measured by the Nikkei 225 Index, remains more than a third lower than the peak it put in nearly thirty years ago (even though valuations are back to those highs). Is it so hard to believe that, after the U.S. equity market hit 140% of GDP this year, that the S&P 500 could suffer a similar fate? Of course it is, we're in the midst of another mania and there is only room for belief in the impossible."

Gold heads toward a 1-month high -Marketwatch
"Gold prices extended a gain above a key $1,500 price on Friday, poised to settle at a one-month high, as investors positioned for more easing from global central banks, which could add further support for bullion. Downbeat U.S. economic data contributed to haven demand for gold, with consumer sentiment reading on Friday revised down to 95.5 in October from an initial 96. 'The weakness in the U.S. data...has provided a further tailwind for the gold price,' said Naeem Aslam, chief market analyst at ThinkMarkets....For the week, the yellow metal was on track to rise 1.4%, representing its steepest such advance since the period ended Aug. 9, according to FactSet data. Silver prices jumped 44.6 cents, or 2.5%, to trade at $18.25 an ounce, with prices also set for their highest close since Sept. 24. Investors await the Federal Reserve's policy decision at a two-day gathering on Oct. 29-30, with traders expecting the U.S. central bank to deliver its third quarter percentage point interest cut of the year. However, it isn't clear if the Fed will conform to high market hopes and ease policy further."

How to Fix the Student Loan Mess -Stossel/Reason
"Student loan debt keeps growing. There is a better solution than the ones politicians offer, which stick the taxpayer or the loan lenders with the whole bill. It's called an 'income share agreement' (ISA). Investors give money to a college, and the college then gives a free or partially free education to some students. When those students graduate, they pay the college a certain percentage of their future income. It's a way 'for the school to say to students, 'You're only going to pay us if we help you succeed,'' explains Beth Akers, co-author of the book Game of Loans. Andrew Hoyler was thrilled when Purdue University got him an ISA loan. Now he's a professional pilot, and he'll pay Purdue 8 percent of his income for 104 months. 'After that 104-month term ends, if you still owe money, it's forgiven, forgotten, you don't owe another penny,' he says in my latest video. 'Now, if I find myself in a six-figure job tomorrow, there's a chance that I'll pay back far more than I took out.'....What students pay depends partly on what they study. On a $10,000 ISA, English majors must pay 4.58 percent of their income for 116 months. Math majors, because they are more likely to get higher-paying jobs, pay just 3.96 percent for 96 months. 'It may also sway students away from majors that don't have job prospects,' says Hoyler. ISA recipients learn 'not only what a career may pay, but how stable it may be, what the future is like.' 'We should invest in students the same way that we invest in startups,' says Akers. 'Share equity.'....Instead of forcing banks out of the loan business, we should get government out of it. Banks are in the business of assessing loan risk. If actual private lenders, people with skin in the game, made loans, then they'd care about being paid back."

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Gold last traded at $1,504 an ounce. Silver at $17.80 an ounce.

NEWS SUMMARY: Precious metal prices rose Thursday on weak data and rate cut bets. U.S. stocks traded mixed as a decline in 3M offset gains in Microsoft.

Gold gains on rate cut bets -Reuters
"Gold prices scaled a near two-week peak on Thursday after weak economic data from the United States increased expectations for another rate cut by the Federal Reserve...'The bump we got now is because of the miss on durable goods numbers in the U.S.,' said Bob Haberkorn, senior market strategist at RJO Futures said. 'We had a couple of misses in the last few weeks on these numbers, be it retail sales or durable goods, and some of the PMI numbers. Overall, it lends support to another rate cut from the Fed before year-end.'....Also adding to the concerns over the health of the global economy, Euro zone business activity stagnated in October as demand withered, according to a downbeat survey published on Thursday. Central banks globally are facing increasing pressure to dole out monetary support for flagging economies as the U.S.-China trade dispute continue to take toll on trade and business sentiment. The Fed has cut interest rates twice this year and investors currently see another reduction in borrowing costs when policymakers meet next week."

A Deal With China Is a Loss for America -American Spectator
"With China, if the United States cedes an inch of ground on trade, China's leaders will turn that inch into a mile - ensuring that Beijing will yet again keep pace with (and possibly ultimately defeat) America in the great strategic competition between Beijing and Washington. It now appears that such a trade deal with China is at hand. I am, unfortunately, reminded of Winston Churchill's famous quote that you 'cannot make a deal with a tiger when your head is in its mouth.' For years, America's head has been in China's mouth. All we can do is resist China's bite. The president, however, appears poised to surrender to China. The problem is that the president's need for short-term deals will not have the intended effect on the long-term Sino-American strategic competition. Rather than ameliorating the rising tide of hostility between the two economic and military juggernauts, a deal, such as the tentative one that the Trump administration is crafting with Beijing, will weaken the United States in the long term and will allow for Beijing to continue its long march to world preeminence....The first phase of this deal redounds to agriculture. And this is the tell-tale sign that the potential deal is first and foremost political. President Trump has weakened himself politically with his tough trade stance on China. By targeting agricultural products, Trump has put a core contingent of his eclectic voting base - American farmers - in financial peril. Also, the ongoing trade war risks undermining the stock market....Fact is, any deal reached with China will not be final. Even on an issue that the Chinese are willing to make a deal on - such as in the agricultural sector - Beijing will inevitably find ways to cheat, thereby harming American workers and the economy. What's more, the biggest problems we face, technology transfer and intellectual property theft, are being pushed back in the negotiations to the second round....The president likely secured his reelection with the move toward a trade deal. But without a long-term understanding - and plan - for resisting Chinese IP theft and illicit tech transfers to China - the United States will inevitably become just another middle power in an increasingly Chinese-dominated world."

'Do or die': Report warns banks to reinvent themselves to survive the next downturn -CNBC
"More than half the players in the global banking sector aren't generating enough returns and should quickly reinvent themselves to weather any future economic storms, according to a report from consulting firm McKinsey. Nearly 60% of banks are not generating returns on equity which could be exacerbated if another crisis hits, the 58-page report released on Monday said. 'A prolonged economic slowdown with low or even negative interest rates could wreak further havoc,' the report stated. Chira Barua, a London-based McKinsey partner and co-author of the report, called this a 'do or die' moment. Barua explained that a serious downturn could be catastrophic for a number of banks if they don't reinvent themselves....Added to that are the threats that banks face from fintech (financial technology) players such as Revolut and tech companies such as Apple who have entered the banking space. According to McKinsey, banks only set aside 35% of their IT budgets to innovation and reinventing strategies, whereas fintech players spend more than 70%....The 'challenged banks' category includes the remaining 35% of banks globally that are both under performing as well as operate in unfavorable markets. McKinsey warns that the business models in these banks are flawed."

Goodbye Middle Class: 50% Of American Workers Make Less Than $33,000 A Year -Zero Hedge
"The truth is that most American families are deeply struggling, but you hardly ever hear this from the mainstream media...Most of those high paying jobs are concentrated in the major cities along the east and west coasts. For much of the rest of the country, these are very challenging times as the cost of living soars but their paychecks do not. According to the Social Security Administration, the median income in the United States last year was just $32,838.05...Of course nobody can support a middle class lifestyle for a family of four on $2,750 a month before taxes, and so in most families more than one person is working these days. In fact, in many families today more than one person is working multiple jobs in a desperate attempt to make ends meet, and it still is often not quite enough....These numbers help us to understand why survey after survey has shown that most Americans are living paycheck to paycheck. After paying the bills, there just isn't much money left for most of us. And for an increasing number of Americans, even paying the bills has become exceedingly difficult. In fact, a brand new report from UBS says that 44 percent of all U.S. consumers 'don't make enough money to cover their expenses'....That means that about half the country is flat broke and struggling just to survive financially...So why is this happening? Government. In profession after profession, government control freaks have made it nearly impossible to make a living, and this has pushed the percentage of Americans that are self-employed to historic lows....A lot of people accuse me of spreading 'doom and gloom', but that is not true at all. There is hope in understand what is happening, and there is hope in getting prepared for the hard times that are ahead. When you take steps to prepare, you are telling yourself and everyone around you that you believe that you can make it through the storm that is coming."

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Gold last traded at $1,495 an ounce. Silver at $17.58 an ounce.

NEWS SUMMARY: Precious metal prices rose Wednesday on bargain-hunting and Brexit uncertainty. U.S. stocks rose as investors focused on earnings reports from Caterpillar and Boeing.

Kiyosaki on the looming market crash, why gold is 'God’s money' -Marketwatch
"Count Robert Kiyosaki, the best-selling author of 'Rich Dad, Poor Dad,' among those basking in the yellow glow of gold’s resurgence....'I've been on the gold standard since 1972,' he said. 'So I've gone through heaven and hell with gold and silver, and now I look like a genius.' Kiyosaki, with a net worth reported to be around $80 million, has been calling for the stock market to crash for a while now....'Gold is God’s money... The Fed has destroyed the monetary system of the world along with its central banks. It has manipulated the market. In my opinion they went criminal... So when I watch Wall Street, I watch the price of stocks and I watch what the Fed is doing - I just get nauseous. I just buy more gold.'"

The End Of Fiat In One Chart? -Zero Hedge
"For the first time in 21 years, Germany has openly bought gold into its reserve holdings...With ECB mutiny and Deutsche Bank's rapid demise, fears are rising of a looming financial crisis, and with that, Germany has shown a renewed interest in gold. As a reminder, September's outright purchase of the precious metal comes after Germany’s central bank, the Bundesbank, repatriated 583 tons, or $31 billion worth, of gold in 2017, years ahead of schedule....Of course, while Germany is now the latest to turn to gold as a safe haven store of value in its reserves, it is not the first as the de-dollarization shift has been accelerating in recent months...Germany's shift comes after China's acceleration in gold-buying as Peter Schiff recently noted this a 'global gold rush on the part of central banks' in preparation for a dollar crash. 'The days that the dollar is a reserve currency are numbered and the smart central banks are trying to buy as much gold as they can before the number is up,' Schiff said. Now that the always conservative Germans are back in the market buying gold, one wonders if the end of fiat is drawing closer."

Why confiscatory taxing of the wealthy is a hate crime -Ponte/WND
"Imagine socialist Vermont Sen. Bernie Sanders in a political debate saying: 'Black people should not exist. I propose that we impose a confiscatory 97.5 percent tax rate on them to make their survival impossible.' We would be outraged at any politician who made such a racist and hate-filled statement. Sen. Sanders has never said any such bigoted thing about African Americans. But earlier this year, newly minted millionaire Sanders declared that 'billionaires should not exist,' and proposed imposing a discriminatory tax of 97.5 percent on them so that such rich people would quickly cease to exist. You might think that people choose to become wealthy, but that you and I do not pick our race. What we call race is vaguely defined by a set of factors such as skin color imposed on us by genetics, our inborn DNA over which we have no choice or control. It is unjust and racist to hate and punish us for what our genes created. But recent research at Kings College London and Case Western Reserve University in Cleveland, Ohio, finds that 37 to 48 percent of the tendency to be an entrepreneur is genetic. 'The tendency to identify new business opportunities,' reported Inc. Magazine about this scientific research, 'is in your genes.'....If becoming rich has a genetic component, then Richism - hatred and envy of the rich - is just as immoral and should be just as illegal as racism. Too bad for the Democrats, socialists and Marxists that their ideology and hence their political power has been built on preaching that we need to 'soak,' hate and assault the wealthy....'American exceptionalism' exists because for centuries those with a craving for freedom and opportunity have brought their DNA here. As Craig R. Smith and I documented in The Inflation Deception, those self-selected pioneers came here with an exceptional proportion of what UCLA Psychiatrist Peter C. Whybrow surmises is what geneticists call D4-7 dopamine receptor alleles in our DNA."

The path to carbon free flows through hydropower -The Hill
"Decarbonizing our national electricity grid is a worthy aspiration, and getting there is attainable. But, while solar, wind and battery storage may grab the headlines, a simple truth is often overlooked - we can't achieve deep decarbonization of our electricity system without hydropower. Why? Because hydropower is the nation's first renewable resource, providing clean, carbon-free energy to roughly 30 million Americans, and 40 percent of the United States' overall renewable electricity. In addition, hydropower is flexible enough to integrate increasing amounts of wind and solar onto the grid...Representing 95 percent of the nation's energy storage, pumped storage hydropower facilities are like sponges; they absorb excess energy from the grid and store it for later. All of which is to say, hydropower is the renewable resource that integrates the other renewables....Reaching a 100 percent clean energy target is a moonshot that states throughout the country are increasingly attempting. Some states understand the value of hydropower's contribution. Washington state, for example, passed legislation requiring 100 percent clean electricity by 2045. The bill allows all existing hydropower generation to be used for compliance, and for hydropower to generate renewable energy credits."

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Gold last traded at $1,487 an ounce. Silver at $17.50 an ounce.

NEWS SUMMARY: Precious metal prices paused Tuesday as investors digested market outlook. U.S. stocks traded mixed as investors pored through a slew of key earnings from companies such as United Technologies, Procter & Gamble and McDonald's.

U.S. Companies Preparing for Long-Term 'Confrontational Relationship' With China -Wall Street Journal
"U.S. companies are preparing for tensions with China to extend far beyond the status of the continuing trade discussions, an executive for the U.S.-China Business Council said Monday. 'When we talk to companies, there's a realization that no matter what happens with this trade deal, we're going down a trajectory of a much more confrontational relationship with China that's very unlikely to shift in the opposite direction in the future,' Jacob Parker, vice president of China operations for the council, said. The council represents about 220 U.S. companies that conduct business in China. Businesses are making arrangements to diversify their supply-chain investments away from the China market and enacting other structural changes to account for that, Mr. Parker said. It could take about three to five years to build up the supply chain elsewhere, he added....The long-term effects of the tariff dispute could affect some companies' financial positions and credit ratings as well as the loss of long-term supply contracts, said Ted Pokorski, the director of treasury at Regal Beloit Corp., a Beloit, Wis.-based maker of electric motors, who also spoke on the panel. A survey of U.S.-China Business Council members in August said that optimism about China is at a historic low, adding that more businesses are halting their investment in the country and only a slight majority of companies expect their revenue in China to rise next year."

The Feds Add Liquidity to Sustain Economic Expansion -Bonner/Bonner And Partners
"When you know what cards the biggest, dumbest, richest, drunkest player will lay on the table… you ought to be able to profit from it....Neither markets nor economies will be allowed to exhale or retreat - not if the authorities at the Fed can prevent it. And they believe - against all evidence, logic, and reason - that they can stop it with 'liquidity.' When the going gets tough, they say, they'll add more juice. Heck, they won't even wait for the going to get tough. Now, they're adding some 'insurance liquidity,' like a glass of sherry in the afternoon to keep their spirits up. The Wall Street Journal reports: 'The Federal Reserve Bank of New York injected $104.15 billion in temporary liquidity into financial markets Thursday. The intervention came in two parts. One was via a term-repurchase-agreement operation that will last for 15 days that added $30.65 billion. The other was via a one-day repo operation that totaled $73.5 billion.' But it won't be long before the authorities bring out the hard stuff - even more liquidity. And this noxious brew comes in only one form - new money. It is the money launched in 1971, which has since lost 97% of its value, compared to the pre-1971 model. How to front-run the feds' cheap new money? Simple: Just hold on to the old money - gold....As our old friend Richard Russell put it, coming up is the most vicious, dangerous, devastating melee in U.S. financial history. But when the dust settles, gold will be the last man standing."

How an emergency fund can help your retirement savings -USA Today
"When it comes to preparing for retirement, saving is only half the battle....Unexpected expenses are a part of life. Your old car finally gave out and you need to buy a new one. Your basement flooded and requires costly repairs. Or a sudden injury led to a trip to the hospital. These types of costs are bound to pop up, but they can be detrimental in retirement. Because you're living on a fixed income in retirement, you likely don't have much wiggle room in your budget....That's where the emergency fund comes in. When you have a solid emergency fund in retirement, you have a designated place to pull cash from when an unexpected expense inevitably crops up. That helps protect your retirement savings, guaranteeing that your money lasts for as long as possible....Exactly how much you should save depends on multiple factors, such as how long you expect to spend in retirement and what your current savings look like. If you plan to retire early or have reason to believe you'll be spending several decades in retirement, you'll need a larger emergency fund."

Breathe free: Capitalism helps protect the environment -Washington Times
"A recent Rasmussen poll found 20% of voters feel we should eliminate capitalism to protect the environment. That's like saying we should eliminate teachers to improve education. Truth be told, capitalism has helped cleanse our planet - improving living standards while protecting the environment. Rather than eliminate capitalism, policymakers need to unleash it. Markets incentivize efficiency by rewarding people for coming up with ways to do more or do better with less. People choose - and businesses make - more efficient products because it saves them money while delivering what customers want. Over the past decade, market forces have driven a massive transition within the energy industry. In 2008, coal provided roughly half of the country's electricity generation. Now, coal's share is about a quarter. Increased production of natural gas has driven energy bills and emissions downward. The Nuclear Energy Institute organized nuclear power plants nationally to find operating efficiencies that have reduced costs by 19%, saving consumers $1.6 billion and keeping emissions-free electricity in the marketplace....Investments in cement, steel, plastic and other building materials will make our houses and highways sturdier and our products more durable - with a smaller environmental footprint....When America and the rest of the world embrace policies rooted in economic freedom, both prosperity and the environment flourish. In this instance, you really can have your cake and eat it, too."

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Gold last traded at $1,488 an ounce. Silver at $17.60 an ounce.

NEWS SUMMARY: Precious metal prices traded mixed Monday as investors digested market risks. U.S. stocks traded moderately higher, boosted by optimism around U.S.-China trade talks as well as the corporate earnings season.

Russia and China Are Buying Gold, Not Bitcoin -Analyst/UToday
"Chris Mancini, the analyst of Gabelli Gold Funds, hasn't changed his stance on Bitcoin. In his latest interview with Kitco, he claims that gold, not its digital competitor, will be used as a hedge currency in case of a potential economic crisis. 'The Russian government, the Chinese government are buying gold. They are not buying Bitcoin. That's the ultimate play. That the ultimate currency. That's what the governments are going to tie their currencies to if and when something really bad happens.' During his previous appearance on Kitco in June, Mancini called the top cryptocurrency 'corrupted.' He particularly lambasted BTC's controversial forks (Bitcoin Cash and Bitcoin SV) that are allegedly the source of this corruption). Meanwhile, he called gold 'the creation of God,' which drew the ire of many cryptocurrency proponents on social media....The Bitcoin vs. gold debate has reignited in 2019 in the light of Grayscale's 'Drop Gold' campaign...While gold is outdated, its digital version is too volatile to become a viable replacement. Peter Schiff of Euro Pacific Capital recently predicted that the price of Bitcoin could soon drop below the $2,000 level due to a bearish chart formation."

Ray Dalio says the world is in a 'great sag,' echoes the 1930s -CNBC
"Speaking a CNBC-moderated panel at the IMF and World Bank annual meetings in Washington, D.C. on Thursday, Ray Dalio said it was now too late for central banks to make much difference as economies enter a natural downturn. 'This cycle is fading, we are now in the world in what I would call a 'great sag',' said Dalio, adding that monetary policy, and especially interest rate reductions, were unlikely to offer much stimulus...Dalio said the world was also experiencing the biggest wealth gap since the 1930s and that was creating political stress....Dalio told the CNBC panel that China's new swagger was further evidence that the world now echoes the depression era of the last century. 'Also like the 1930s, we have a rising power challenging an existing world power in the form of China-U.S. challenges.' The hedge fund titan claimed there were four types of war to watch for - trade, technology, currency and geopolitical."

Financial Markets Face Fresh Wave of Political Uncertainty: 'There's Literally Nowhere to Hide' -Wall Street Journal
"The U.S.-China trade war, Britain leaving the EU and impeachment proceedings in the U.S. are just some of the major political obstacles facing investors. Adding to the uncertainty are the Turkish military operation in Syria, attacks on Saudi oil production and social unrest spanning from Hong Kong to Barcelona. In response, some investors are boosting holdings of cash and other assets that tend to hold their value when markets turn rocky....One index, which captures a range of political and economic uncertainties, rose in August to its highest level on record in data that go back to 1997. It was even more extreme than after previous events such as the 9/11 terrorist attacks, the SARS outbreak in Hong Kong, the European debt crisis and the 2016 U.S. presidential election....'In some ways, there's literally nowhere to hide today,' said Michael Parker, director of research and head of strategy for Asia-Pacific at Bernstein Research in Hong Kong....Many investors have turned to haven investments and hedges involving futures and options in case volatility returns. Esty Dwek, head of global market strategy at Natixis Investment Managers, said she favors gold...given the ever-changing geopolitical backdrop."

Bank heads warn of looming liquidity crisis -Axios
"A growing number of market analysts are voicing concerns that the repo market shock in September may have been the first signal of a wide-ranging liquidity shortage, and now those warnings are being echoed by the heads of major banks...Even with the Fed's commitment to pump $60 billion a month into financial markets, there still may not be enough funding because of regulations, changes to market structure, and banks' desire to keep their reserve levels high. Strategist from JPMorgan, Goldman Sachs and Bank of America sent recent notes also warning of the funding issues. Additionally, the increase of passive investments and major flows from pension funds and large asset managers into private equity funds is drying out typical sources of liquidity to the stock market and could mean major outflows in the face of bad news....The shadow banking sector is largely private and little is known about how much money the insurance companies, hedge funds, private equity funds and payday lenders that make up the industry actually have. IIF president and CEO Tim Adams likened it to the market for mortgage-backed securities before the housing bubble burst in 2007, triggering the global financial crisis."

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Gold last traded at $1,494 an ounce. Silver at $17.57 an ounce.

NEWS SUMMARY: Precious metal prices traded steady Friday on a weaker dollar. U.S. stocks fell amid weak overseas data while Netflix led Big Tech shares lower.

A darkening outlook for phase 1 of the U.S.-China trade deal -Axios
"The outlook for a meaningful U.S.-China trade deal continues to deteriorate, as the House passed a bill supporting protesters in Hong Kong and China reportedly backtracked on part of the deal it agreed to last week. The House bill would require an annual review of whether Hong Kong is truly separate from Beijing to the point that it justifies the special trading status it receives under U.S. law and would implement sanctions against officials 'responsible for undermining fundamental freedoms and autonomy in Hong Kong.' Chinese officials unsurprisingly did not take the news well, accusing the U.S. of a 'political plot' to thwart China'’s development. The Chinese Ministry of Foreign Affairs said that it would take strong measures against the U.S. if the bill passed. Bloomberg reported that Chinese officials are seeking a rollback of $50 billion in tariffs before agreeing to raise purchases of U.S. agriculture to the $40-$50 billion range President Trump said was agreed to in the so-called phase 1 trade deal."

Why Global Investors Want Access to China's Gold Market -The Street
"Much of the rise of China's gold market comes from the development and growth of the Shanghai Gold Exchange, founded in 2002 by the People's Bank of China, the nation's central bank. In its almost 20 years of existence, the SGE has become the world's largest physical gold exchange. China's government and policy makers created the SGE to be the only official platform for gold in the country, says Samson Li, senior metals analyst, GFMS Refinitiv. All gold imports, domestically mined gold and recycled gold trade through the exchange. 'In order to push the dominance of the SGE further, the Chinese government has also implemented several other policies, including no VAT (value-added tax) on gold purchases, unless a profit is made....According to Metal Focus, China mines 11.5 percent of the global gold output, making it the world's largest gold producer, with 404.1 metric tons produced in 2018...Investors in the Asian nation bought 308 metric tons of physical gold, representing 28.6 percent of worldwide physical gold buying in 2018. Central bank gold buying also contributes to China's gold appetite....Gold's price in non-U.S. dollar terms are already at historical highs. 'The strength of the dollar has hindered the upside in the dollar gold price, which has not been telling the whole story on the global demand for gold,' Li says....Gold often acts as a safe-haven investment for Chinese nationals, too... 'Gold has become one of the most logical investments for the Chinese community,' he says."

Trump's Inner Circle Pushed Him To Cave To China And Cut Trade Deal -Zero Hedge
"As Larry Kudlow transitioned into the role of parroting the administration's economic message on cable news shows, he told his interviewers about the concept of 'fair trade'. Kudlow explained that while he's a believer in free trade, the Chinese have been taking advantage of the US for decades, and that he supports President Trump's efforts to put a stop to it. With that, Kudlow became the White House's preeminent 'fair trade' warrior. As WSJ reported Friday morning, Kudlow last week organized a meeting in the Oval Office with 'outside experts' on trade who reportedly warned Trump that further escalation of the US-China trade war might threaten the stability of the American economy, and hurt Trump's election chances. It's the first sign yet that even Trump's top economic advisors are pushing him to cave to Beijing and strike a deal on trade that would, in all likelihood, involve raising most, if not all, of the tariffs that Washington has imposed on Chinese goods....Since agreeing with Vice Premier Liu He last Friday on a 'handshake' deal for 'Phase One' of a US-China trade pact, reports this week have suggested that the two sides aren't so solid....Trump is 'under immense pressure from Wall Street and those members of the Senate that are aligned with the big donors to get rid of tariffs,' said Stephen Bannon, former White House chief strategist and an ally of Mr. Navarro on China. 'If they have to roll out 'free market' economists that have served as Wall Street's biggest cheerleaders to go down to the Oval and try to convince him to do it, they will.'"

Religion Is on the Decline as More Adults Check 'None' -Wall Street Journal
"Religiosity in the U.S. is in sharp decline, according to a study released by the Pew Research Center on Thursday, with the ranks of people who don’t adhere to any faith growing fast while church attendance has fallen steeply. Christians make up 65% of the U.S. adult population, according the 2018-2019 study, down from 77% in 2009. At the same time, those who don't identify with any religion - often known as 'nones' - now make up more than a quarter of the population, compared with 17% a decade ago....The data reflect a seismic social reordering that has seen the population shift away from Christianity and toward religious disaffiliation. Some 'nones' are atheists or agnostics, while others consider themselves to be spiritual but don't adhere to a particular religious tradition. Every age group, racial group and region of the country is less Christian than a decade ago, according to the study. Less than half of millennials, the youngest demographic group in the study, identify as Christian; 40% of them are unaffiliated....Those who identify as 'nothing in particular' rose to 17% from 12%. Non-Christian religions largely held steady. Jews remain at 2% of the population and Muslims are at 1%."

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Gold last traded at $1,498 an ounce. Silver at $17.61 an ounce.

NEWS SUMMARY: Precious metal prices rose Thursday as weak economic data sent the dollar lower. U.S. stocks were little changed despite strong earnings results from Netflix and Morgan Stanley as investors also digested news of a pending Brexit deal.

China's central bank continues to load up on gold -Financial Times
"China has added almost 100 tons of gold to its reserves over the last ten months, underlining its position as one of the leading central bank buyers of the precious metal. The People's Bank of China announced over the weekend that its holdings of the yellow metal rose to 62.64m ounces in September, an increase of 190,000 ounces from August. The increase of nearly 5.4 tons of gold to China's holdings - bringing the total additions since December to about 96 tons - comes at a time when central banks across the world have been trying to diversify their reserve assets away from the US dollar as trade tensions continue to simmer. Gold is considered a haven asset and a store of value in times of uncertainty. Central banks, led by Russia, bought more gold last year than at any time since America decided to move off the gold standard in 1971, with around $27bn worth of purchases. So far this year a total of 14 central banks, primarily from emerging markets, have bolstered their gold reserves, according to data from the World Gold Council....China's central bank has continued to stock up on bullion as the trade war with the US shows little sign of easing and its domestic economy is slowing."

QE4 Officially Begins: Fed's First T-Bill Purchase Is 4x Oversubscribed Amid Massive Liquidity Demand -Zero Hedge
"QE4 has officially arrived...Specifically, the Fed purchased $7.501 billion in Treasury Bills out of $32.569 billion in T-Bills submitted. In other words, the operation was 4.3x oversubscribed, and when combined with the oversubscribed repo operation announced, confirms that there is a dramatic need for liquidity among the Primary Dealer community....Clearly someone was more than happy to sell them today in a furious scramble to convert Bills to cold, hard cash. Separately, the Fed did not purchase securities with less than 4 weeks to maturity or cash management bills, and sure enough, the 'nearest' maturity purchased today was Bills maturing on Nov 26, for some $20 million. And with that, QE 4, pardon, 'Not A QE' has begun, and will continue 'at least into the second quarter' of 2020, by which point the Fed will have purchased over $300 billion in Bills, and will at some point find itself compelled to shift to buying short-maturity coupons as well as the 'Not A QE' gradually morphs into a full-blown QE."

Craig Smith comment: Well it's official. Another prediction we made years ago coming to pass. In our 2012 book, The Inflation Deception, we mentioned that Q.E.'s would be the Fed's chosen tool going forward. Co-author Lowell Ponte and I warned the Fed would continue money printing all the way up to "Q.E.50" if needed. For this reason, people now agree that owning physical gold is an absolute necessity in a world awash with fiat currency.

JPMorgan Chase CEO Jamie Dimon warns 'there's a recession ahead' -New York Post
"JPMorgan Chase Chief Executive Jamie Dimon warned Tuesday a recession may be on the horizon thanks to the continuing trade tensions with China. 'Of course there's a recession ahead,' Dimon said during a morning call with reporters after the bank announced its third-quarter earnings. 'What we don't know is if it's going to happen soon.' 'It does look like geopolitics, particularly around China and trade, are reducing business confidence and business capital expenditure,' Dimon said....Businesses have been slowing hiring in recent months as the trade war has dragged on into its 18th month - with economists worried that consumers could be next to feel the pinch. 'What the market doesn't want, and what businesses don't want, is an acceleration of the trade war,' Quincy Krosby, chief market strategist at Prudential Financial, told The Post."

Brexit's Opportunity Cost -Wiseman/City Journal
"Preoccupation with leaving the E.U. overshadows a bigger threat - that of a socialist Britain...Given that a general election is around the corner, the spotlight on the two parties and their leaders should be brighter than usual - their plans taken especially seriously, their fitness for office rigorously scrutinized. And yet, that light is largely blotted out by Brexit, which absorbs all attention...But what if, contrary to all assumptions, Brexit isn't in fact the most important issue in British politics? What if the country's preoccupation with getting that one thing right means it risks getting other things wrong? Jeremy Corbyn is widely viewed as having played his Brexit hand badly...The result: a climate in which Corbyn and his team - until 2015, the Labour Party's far-left fringe - are taken seriously by voters who normally would have balked at their plans. Team Corbyn has unveiled the most left-wing economic agenda ever proposed by a major party in Britain, even as the average Labour voter's economic views have shifted to the right, thanks to the Brexit shakeup. The Labour agenda is far more than a reversal of spending cuts implemented by the Conservative-led coalition in the wake of the financial crisis. It amounts to a transformation in the role of the state in British economic life. A Corbyn government would be nothing short of revolutionary, with John McDonnell - his Marxist Shadow Chancellor of the Exchequer - making no bones about his desire to 'overthrow capitalism.'"

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Gold last traded at $1,494 an ounce. Silver at $17.42 an ounce.

NEWS SUMMARY: Precious metal prices rose Wednesday on bargain-hunting and downbeat retail data. U.S. stocks traded mostly flat as weak retail sales data, coupled with persisting trade-war fears, offset strong earnings results.

Gold prices lifted on downbeat U.S. data -Kitco
"Gold prices are modestly higher in early U.S. trading Wednesday, after trading steady to weaker overnight. The yellow metal perked up a bit immediately following the release of a weaker-than-expected U.S. economic report. December gold futures were last up $3.10 an ounce at 1,486.60. December Comex silver prices were last down $0.089 at $17.295 an ounce. The just-released September U.S. retail sales report showed a decline of 0.3%. Forecasts were calling for a gain of 0.2% from August. This report falls into the camp of the monetary policy doves who want to see further U.S. lowering of U.S. interest rates....The International Monetary Fund on Tuesday released a report that forecast global economic growth at 3% in 2019, down from a 3.2% growth rate forecast by the IMF in July. The IMF blamed global trade disputes for the slowing economic growth worldwide....Bulls' next upside price objective is to produce a close in December futures above solid resistance at $1,525.00."

Despite Trade Truce, U.S.-China Cold War Edges Closer -Wall Street Journal
"When President Trump first hit China with tariffs more than a year ago, he was pursuing narrowly defined, transactional goals: a smaller bilateral trade deficit and better treatment of U.S. companies inside China. But the trade war has since blossomed into a broader, deeper ideological conflict. Events in the last week show that the two economic superpowers, though reaching a truce in their trade war, are drifting closer to a new Cold War. From China's 2001 entry into the World Trade Organization until 2017, the U.S. and China moved toward greater integration and engagement...Events in the last year have changed that...China's treatment of its Muslim minority in Xinjiang and wayward western businesses like the National Basketball Association, and the Hong Kong protests gave human-rights hawks a voice....The so-called trade mini-deal is most notable for what it didn't do: roll back any tariffs. It simply delayed increases in tariffs announced only two months ago. China agreed to resume purchases of U.S. farm exports but has been vague on the scale and timing....'I think the Chinese really don't believe a full-fledged agreement is possible,' said Scott Kennedy, a China expert at the Center for Strategic and International Studies. 'Not only do [China and the U.S.] have limited trust in each other, neither side seems to be in a position where they desperately need a deal.'....So don't let the mini-deal fool you: Beneath the surface, the split between the U.S. and China is widening."

US retail sales unexpectedly decline in a sign that consumer economy could be cracking -CNBC
"U.S. retail sales fell for the first time in seven months in September, raising fears that a slowdown in the American manufacturing sector could be starting to bleed into the consumer side of the economy. The Commerce Department said on Wednesday retail sales dropped 0.3% last month as households slashed spending on building materials, online purchases and especially automobiles. The decline was the first since February....'While this is by no means conclusive evidence that the consumer is wavering, it nonetheless reinforces our ongoing concern that a spending retrenchment will ultimately trigger a more durable slowdown,' wrote Ian Lyngen, head of rates research at BMO Capital Markets. Auto sales fell 0.9% in September, the most in eight months, while receipts at service stations fell 0.7% in what likely reflects cheaper gasoline....'We think real consumption rose by 2.5% annualized in the third quarter, down from 4.2% rise in the second, with overall GDP growth slowing to just 1.5% annualized, from 2.0%,' said Michael Pearce, senior U.S. economist at Capital Economics."

New Kind of Recession Threat Presents Problem for Powell and Fed -Bloomberg
"This won't be your father's recession...Traditionally, U.S. downturns are home-grown and household-led, triggered by spikes in interest rates and fueled by the unwinding of financial and economic excesses. None of that is arguably at work this time, at least for now. Instead, what's making investors nervous about a recession is a global, geopolitical shock to business sentiment that's prompting U.S. companies to curb spending amid uncertainties from the U.S.-China trade war to Britain's potential pullout from the European Union...The slowdown is being driven by increasing trade tensions and policy uncertainty. That poses problems for Fed Chairman Jerome Powell and his fellow policy makers as they decide whether to cut interest rates later this month for the third time this year....'The scenarios are quite extreme,' JPMorgan Chase & Co. chief economist Bruce Kasman said. 'Either we bend and then break or we bend and then bounce.'....Moody’s Analytics Inc. chief economist Mark Zandi said a recession is all but inevitable if President Donald Trump follows through on his threat to impose tariffs on virtually all U.S. imports from China by the end of this year....'We are having a hard time judging how large this geopolitical shock is,' said JPMorgan's Kasman, who reckons that the odds of a recession over the next 12 months are 35% to 40%."

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Gold last traded at $1,483 an ounce. Silver at $17.38 an ounce.

NEWS SUMMARY: Precious metal prices consolidated Tuesday amid tempered risk aversion. U.S. stocks rose as the corporate earnings season got off to a strong start.

Gold Set to Extend Rally as Retail Investors Climb on Board -Bloomberg
"The next push in gold prices will come from retail investors as risks remain skewed to the upside, according to Standard Chartered Bank. Having already rallied to the highest in more than six years, bullion will still benefit from safe haven flows, according to Suki Cooper, precious metals analyst at the bank....Bullion is up 16% this year as central banks lower borrowing costs and global growth drags amid the prolonged U.S.-China trade war, boosting demand for haven assets. While some risk appetite returned to markets with the two countries agreeing a partial trade accord last week, investors continue to add to exchange-traded funds backed by the metal, with holdings closing in on record levels previously seen in 2012. 'Although we've seen ETF holdings and tactical investment hitting elevated levels, like peak highs, we think retail demand is really going to be what drives the next leg higher,' Cooper said in an interview. 'Retail investors almost want confirmation of further rate cuts, some weakness in the equity markets before they move into gold. The next leg higher in 2020 is going to be led by the retail side.'"

Fed's back printing money - so what gives? -Crudele/New York Post
"Although there's been no official announcement, the Federal Reserve has restarted QE - better known as Quack Economics. You might know it better as Quantitative Easing, in which the central bank buys large amounts of government bonds or other assets to help stimulate the economy. There have been three of these QEs since the financial crisis more than 10 years ago. But the big question now: Is there a new crisis that has the Fed dusting off QE? The Fed isn't saying...Here's how it works: The Fed electronically prints trillions of dollars in extra money, which it uses to purchase bonds and other securities. This was supposed to keep interest rates low. And the low interest rates were supposed to help the economy grow....QE didn't do much to help the economy, which has been stuck at around 2 percent annual growth for years...Last week the Fed announced that it would start purchasing $60 billion a month in securities from the open market. This is the same as QE only the Fed didn't call it that. So, if the Fed instituted Quantitative Easing in the first place in 2008 because there was a financial crisis, what's the problem now?....The political crisis in Washington would be my best guess. Although others in the media won't admit it, there is currently a constitutional crisis in this country...Or, maybe the economy is really doing as well as we are led to believe by government statistics. Maybe the Fed knows something we don't."

Global Authorities Aren't Waiting for a Crisis to Move Toward More Debt -Bonner/Bonner And Partners
"Warren Buffett says you can never go right by betting against U.S. business. But guess what? So far this century, that bet has been a winner. Charlie Bilello, a former hedge fund analyst, tweets: Total Returns, last 20 years... International Stocks: +110%...US Stocks (S&P 500): +221%...Long-Term US Bonds: +329%...Gold: +365%. In what kind of economy does gold - which produces nothing, invents nothing, sells nothing, issues no reports, makes no sales or profits, pays no dividends, and has no CEO, no staff, no office, no parking lot, no coffee machine, no PR firm, and nobody to lie about the numbers - outperform the MBAs, capitalists, and people of 'great and unmatched wisdom' who run its major corporations? It is a strange world, you will say....All over the world, the authorities are moving toward more inflation and more debt, without even waiting for a deflationary crisis to set it off. Yes, the bar is open…!...In the U.S., the feds are already borrowing like crazy, with spending rising at twice the Obama rate… and debt piling up at $1 trillion per year."

Nobel Prize in Economics Awarded for Work on Poverty -Wall Street Journal
"Three economists whose work on poverty alleviation has taken them out of universities and into remote villages, fields and schools around the world were awarded the Nobel Prize in economics Monday. Abhijit Banerjee, Esther Duflo, and Michael Kremer were recognized for their experimental work testing ways to improve education or health in the developing world or to address some of the other problems affecting the very poor....Prof. Kremer teaches at Harvard University. Profs. Banerjee and Duflo, who are married to each other, teach at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology. The Nobel committee said their work has led to improvements in the lives of many poor people, noting that as a direct result of one study, five million Indian children have benefited from remedial teaching in their schools, while a number of countries have increased their spending on preventive health care....Speaking with reporters following the announcement, Prof. Duflo said the experimental techniques she helped pioneer in developing countries could be applied to 'people in rich countries who also have difficult lives.' 'We have to do much deeper work to understand the lives of the less fortunate in our societies in the face of all the disruption they face,' she said....Prof. Duflo became only the second woman to have won the prize in economics since it was first awarded in 1969 and, at 46, is its youngest recipient."

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Gold last traded at $1,497 an ounce. Silver at $17.71 an ounce.

NEWS SUMMARY: Precious metal prices rose Monday on trade worries amid the Fed's new stimulus program. U.S. stocks drifted as new worries around a U.S.-China trade agreement emerged despite Friday’s announcements.

China Emerges With Wins From U.S. Trade Truce -Wall Street Journal
"China is emerging with wins in this week's trade talks, with the U.S. shelving new tariffs against Beijing while leaving many demands to be worked out later in return for an assurance of increased agriculture purchases. The two countries took an initial step Friday to cement a trade agreement that had been derailed for months. President Trump said the U.S. would call off planned tariff increases on Chinese goods next week while Beijing would buy $40 billion to $50 billion worth of American agricultural products - which China hasn't publicly confirmed....For now the truce opens an opportunity for Beijing to kick down the road concessions that it doesn't want to make. Whether those hard issues ever get resolved is a question. The Chinese leadership feels that time is on its side, believing President Trump is under pressure to make compromises as part of his re-election bid next year. 'If you're China, you're pretty happy with the outcome,' Arthur R. Kroeber, founder of Beijing-based consultancy Gavekal Dragonomics, said of the latest trade talks. 'China's negotiation position has always been, the longer you can extend the talks the better.'....'China's position of safeguarding the nation’s core interests and the fundamental interests of its people cannot be shaken,' said Communist Party mouthpiece People's Daily on Friday. 'On issues of principle, it is impossible to engage and impossible to solve the problem by exerting pressure on the Chinese side.'"

"If The Entire System Collapses, Gold Will Be Needed To Start Over" -DNB/Zero Hedge
"An article published by the De Nederlandsche Bank (DNB), or Dutch Central Bank, has shocked many with its claim that 'if the system collapses, the gold stock can serve as a basis to build it up again. Gold bolsters confidence in the stability of the central bank's balance sheet and creates a sense of security.'....It is stunning to see a mainstream financial institution open up about the superior value of limited supply, non-fiat, sound money assets. It is also hypocritical given the diametrically opposed Keynesian practices regularly engaged in by central banks and official institutions worldwide: after all, just a few months back, the IMF published a paper bashing Germany's adoption of the gold standard in the 1870s as the catalyst for instability in the global monetary system...The Dutch Central Bank is admitting not only did gold not destabilize the monetary system, but it will be its only savior when everything crashes. The article, titled 'DNB's Gold Stock' states: 'A bar of gold retains its value, even in times of crisis. This makes it the opposite of shares, bonds and other securities' all of which have inherent risk and prices can go down....Why this sudden admission of what goldbugs have been saying for years? Perhaps it has to do with the fact that on October 7, the bank announced it would soon be moving a large part of its gold reserves to 'the new DNB Cash Center at military premises in Zeist.' Almost as if the Netherlands is preparing for the grand reset, and is moving its most valuable asset to a 'military' installation just for that purpose."

Gold prices rise as the Fed starts a 'massive' bond buying program -Marketwatch
"Gold prices rose Monday, looking to post their first gain in three sessions, finding support as the so-called 'phase one' of the U.S.-China trade deal reportedly hit a snag and after the U.S. Federal Reserve announced last week that it will start expanding its balance sheet next week. 'The focus on Friday was on the China-U.S. trade deal, which appears to be in limbo pending further talks,' Peter Spina, president and chief executive of GoldSeek.com, told MarketWatch. Wariness over the strength of an agreement hammered out between the U.S. and China last week was growing on Monday after a report that Beijing will insist on more talks with the U.S. before signing any such deal. As big as the trade talks news was on Friday, it was 'a giant distraction from the real news,' said Spina. 'In a very quiet and sneaky way, the Federal Reserve announced the start of a massive bond buying program.' The Fed, in a surprise announcement, set in motion a plan Friday to ease unexpected strains seen in short-term money markets last month....Despite the size of the bond buying program, 'the Fed does not wish for us to refer to it as quantitative easing or QE4,' said Spina. 'Yet, this is exactly what the Fed is doing but due to the timing and enormity of the program.'"

America's China gamble -Ponte/WND
"In 1972, President Richard Nixon took one of the greatest gambles in geopolitical history. He bet America's future on successfully driving a wedge between the world's two greatest Communist powers, the Soviet Union and the People's Republic of China. Nixon launched this wager with a visit 'opening' direct U.S. relations with China. He met Chairman Mao Zedong, the dictator responsible for killing at least 65 million Chinese, and offered to make Red China a partner in the capitalist World Trade Organization. Nixon gambled that he could transform China into a successful capitalist state that embraced the freedom needed to achieve prosperity. For a time it seemed Nixon's wager might be winning...Harvard historian Niall Ferguson was cheered by the symbiotic co-prosperity linking Communist China and capitalist America. Ferguson named this merger: 'Chimerica.'....That moment of optimism is now fading, leaving many wondering if it was always a mirage....Xi Jinping is building a totalitarian surveillance state denying 'social credit' spending to the Politically Incorrect. This power comes in part from Google, whose leftist programmers refuse to help our Pentagon but eagerly arm Communist China with artificial intelligence technology...Xi has already called on the world to choose between China and America...Many Americans are already teaching their children Spanish and their grandchildren Chinese, because they fear that Nixon's gamble will be lost."

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Gold last traded at $1,488 an ounce. Silver at $17.54 an ounce.

NEWS SUMMARY: Precious metal prices traded mixed Friday amid upbeat political rumors. U.S. stocks rallied after an upbeat Trump tweet prompted traders to grow more optimistic of a limited trade deal between China and the U.S.

QE 4 "Not A QE" Begins: Fed Start Buying $60BN In Bills Per Month Starting Next Week -Zero Hedge
"Just one day after we laid out what Goldman's revised forecast for the Fed's 'NOT A QE' will look like, which for those who missed it predicted that the Fed would announce 'monthly purchases of about $60BN for four months, split across Treasury bills and short maturity coupon Treasuries, in order to replenish the roughly $200bn reserve shortfall and support the pace of growth in non-reserve liabilities', the Fed has done just that and moments ago the US central bank announced it would start purchasing $60BN in Bills per month starting October 15....But wait there's more, because just as today's surprising spike in repo use suggested, mere 'NOT A QE' may not cut it, and just in case, in order to provide an 'ample supply of reserves', the Fed will continue with $75BN in overnight repos and $35 billion in term repos twice per week, 'at least through January of next year.'....So with a combined firepower between POMO and Repo in the $100s of billions per month, someone will still have the gall not to call this QE 4 'NOT A QE'?"

Federal Reserve's "Independence" Masquerade -AIER.org
"Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell recently extolled the importance of central bank independence...The Fed has always been a creature of politics...While the Fed would no longer de facto underwrite Treasury securities, it instead shifted toward a system of social-managerial control with its chief policy makers at the helm. Repeated bailouts of financial organizations, both traditional banks and otherwise, over decades demonstrated the Fed's allegiance to special interests...The Fed doesn't want to be independent from politics. It just wants to be independent from any kind of political force that would turn a critical eye to its dealings....If the Fed really wants political independence, the solution is a constitutional separation between the central bank and the ordinary organs of politics, through creation of binding rules. But it doesn't want that....Both strongman populism and oligarchic technocracy are odious, and contrary to the foundations of a constitutional republic."

In an illusory world – gold is the truth-teller -Gold Switzerland
"Around the world, there are millions of investors who every year spend billions of hours trying to achieve a decent return on investments. The number of areas people can invest in today is mind boggling. But when it comes to financial markets, the great majority invests in stocks. And of those, very few outperform the various stock market indices. Most of the investment industry is just a massive system of mediocrity, self-interest and navel-gazing. And this is done at the expense of ordinary people and pensioners who lose a major part of their potential return or pension by paying massive fees to an inefficient and poorly performing industry. So we have a mediocre asset management industry achieving poor returns on average at a time when all asset markets are setting records. What will then happen when stock markets turn down. Even worse, what happens when markets crash which is extremely likely to happen this year or at the latest in early 2020....But what will be different this time is that the market, will call the tricksters' bluff. The Eureka moment for the world will be when the coming 'unlimited-money-creation-out-of-nowhere' trick will not work. For decades the central bankers have got away with printing money that they told the world has real value. Gold has of course always revealed the deceit of central bankers by destroying the value of paper money....Gold is a truth teller and consequently reveals governments' and central banks' deceitful actions in creating false money."

Gas prices exceed $5 a gallon at some Los Angeles area stations -Fox5NY
"As gas prices reached its highest level in the state of California since 2015, some Los Angeles area gas stations are charging more than $5 a gallon. The average price of a gallon of self-serve regular gasoline in Los Angeles County was $4.25 on Wednesday, according to figures from the AAA and Oil Price Information Service. The average price is 4.5 cents higher than one week ago, 57.6 cents more than one month ago and 37.1 cents greater than one year ago. It has also risen 86.4 cents since the start of the year. Gas prices began increasing rapidly last month after Saudi Arabia oil production facilities were attacked, and the increases sharpened after three Los Angeles-area refineries slowed or halted production due to maintenance issues and no imported gasoline was available to make up for the shortfall, according to Jeffrey Spring, the Automobile Club of Southern California's corporate communications manager. Local refineries had already cut back production of summer-blend gasoline in anticipation of switching to selling the winter blend beginning Nov. 1, creating even more of a shortage."

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Gold last traded at $1,500 an ounce. Silver at $17.60 an ounce.

NEWS SUMMARY: Precious metal prices dipped Thursday on profit-taking ahead of U.S. China trade talks. U.S. stocks rose after President Donald Trump said he will meet with Chinese Vice Premier Liu He on Friday, raising hopes the two countries could make progress on the trade front.

Why gold prices are about to skyrocket 50% higher -Tucker/Kitco
"Gold could rally another 50% due to the enormous amount of debt hanging around the world, this according to E.B. Tucker, Director of Metalla Royalty & Streaming. 'The amount of debt is growing tremendously, with the U.S. government's growing by billions and billions of dollars a day. Corporations have to borrow more and more just to function. Interest rates are negative, so they're being paid to borrow, so debt is growing really quickly. You're probably pushing the upper limits of $300 trillion of debt at some point, so I don't see that slowing down, and I think gold has to play catch up,' Tucker told Kitco News on the sidelines of the Denver Gold Forum."

Fed Chair Powell Announces QE4... But "Don't Call It QE4" -Zero Hedge
"Fed Chair Powell appears to have announced QE4 (but do not call it QE4!). Discussing the liquidity shortage and repo-calypse, Powell said...'While a range of factors may have contributed to these developments, it is clear that without a sufficient quantity of reserves in the banking system, even routine increases in funding pressures can lead to outsized movements in money market interest rates...Indeed, my colleagues and I will soon announce measures to add to the supply of reserves over time...I want to emphasize that growth of our balance sheet for reserve management purposes should in no way be confused with the large-scale asset purchase programs that we deployed after the financial crisis.' Roughly translated: Don't confuse balance sheet growth for 'reserve management' with balance sheet growth for 'stock market management'. None of this should come as a surprise as we warned in September that 'The Fed Will Restart QE In November...'"

Young people are quitting their jobs in droves. Here's why -Fox Business
"About half of millennials and 75 percent of Gen Zers have quit their jobs for mental health reasons, according to a new study conducted by Mind Shares Partners, SAP and Quatrics. It was published in Harvard Business Review. That's compared to just 20 percent of respondents overall who said they've voluntarily left a job in order to prioritize their mental health - emblematic of a 'shift in generational awareness,' the authors of the report, Kelly Greenwood, Vivek Bapat and Mike Maughan, wrote. For baby boomers, the number was the lowest, with less than 10 percent quitting a job for mental-health purposes. It should come as no surprise that younger generations are paving the way for the de-stigmatization of mental health. A Wall Street Journal article published in March labeled millennials the 'therapy generation,' as todays 20- and 30-somethings are more likely to turn to therapy, and with fewer reservations, than young people in previous eras did....A Blue Cross Blue Shield study published in 2018 revealed that major depression diagnoses surged by 44 percent among millennials from 2013 to 2016. Increasingly, employees (about 86 percent) want their company to prioritize mental health....In the study, millennials, ages 23 to 38, were 63 percent more likely than baby boomers, 55 to 73, to know the proper procedure for seeking mental health support from the company."

Dr. Corsi Decodes the News -Corsi Nation
"Join Dr. Jerome R. Corsi, Ph.D. on 'Dr. Corsi Decodes the News' Monday - Friday on YouTube; and Dr. Corsi's Rx for America on Patreon every Thursday, as he discusses the latest news and events as they happen and in-depth. Dr. Corsi's insight provides a clearer image to all Americans on what they can do to take back their country and their freedoms." Swiss America is a proud sponsor of CorsiNation.com and provides daily news updates to his readers and viewers.

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Gold last traded at $1,504 an ounce. Silver at $17.73 an ounce.

NEWS SUMMARY: Precious metal prices rose Tuesday on safe-haven buying amid rising geopolitical risks. U.S. stocks fell sharply as investor optimism around the upcoming U.S.-China trade talks faded.

Economists lower outlook, see rising risk of recession because of Trump’s trade war -CNBC
"The risk of a recession is rising, and the main threat to the economy is the Trump administration's trade war, according to a survey released Monday by the National Association for Business Economics. 'The rise in protectionism, pervasive trade policy uncertainty, and slower global growth are considered key downside risks to U.S. economic activity,' said NABE survey chairman Gregory Daco, chief U.S. economist, Oxford Economics....The results of the survey, conducted the week of Sept. 9-16, come as many analysts see warning signs in the latest U.S. economic indicators, including a plunge in manufacturing activity to more than a 10-year low in September and a sharp slowdown in service-industry growth to levels last seen in 2016....The panel also expects industrial production to slow sharply from 4% in 2018 to just 0.9% in 2019. That represents a big downward revision from the previous estimate of 2.4% in the June survey. Rising pessimism about corporate profits and a wider economic slowdown have rattled the stock market. Last week, Wall Street's main indexes suffered big one-day drops after employment and manufacturing data suggested that the U.S.-China trade war is taking an increasing toll on the U.S. economy."

In the Next Crisis, Both Warren and Trump Will Push Towards More Inflation -Bonner/Bonner And Partners
"We are in an Inflate-or-Die trap. No one wants to face the music and admit that the economy has been phonied up with fake money, unpayable debt, and falsified prices. Nobody wants to go through the pain and humiliation of rehab. So what's the alternative? Inflation – more debt, more phony prices, and more fake money. For the last 30 years, the Federal Reserve added money via underpriced short-term loans. Speculators, banks, and insiders took the money and used it to run up stock and bond prices. The rich got much richer; the poor stayed poor. Almost no one complained, because they were told that the 'wealth effect' was making us all better off....Now, we are approaching a new stage. With Biden tainted by Ukraine... and Bernie by age and infirmity... Elizabeth Warren is the likely Democrat nominee....Ms. Warren pretends to be smart, well-informed, and sophisticated. She believes she is on top of the issues, at home in university coffee shops, and at ease with the cognoscenti, literati, and transgenderati. Mr. Trump, on the other hand, is a pro-wrestling fan... a tough, street-smart hustler who doesn't pay his bills, doesn't read books, and doesn't think he needs to study issues in depth. But when push comes to shove in the next crisis, both Warren and Trump will push in the same direction: towards more inflation....No candidate – neither Republican nor Democrat – is proposing to return to honest money, market-set price signals, and balanced budgets....We have a president who thinks he knows better than the market where interest rates should be...and a leading lady on the Democrat side who thinks the whole economy can be marshalled to correct the world's injustices....Some say Ms. Warren is 'unelectable.' But they said that about Mr. Trump too."

U.S. Economy Remains in an Intensifying Downturn -ShadowStats Flash Update
"- Despite Headline Unemployment at a 50-Year Low of 3.52%, Broader Unemployment Measures and Employment Stress Levels Still Signal Deep Recession. - September Payrolls Gained 136,000 (181,000 Net of Revisions), While Year-to-Year Payroll Growth Held at a Low of 1.4%, Last Seen Going Into and Coming Out of the Great Recession. - August Trade Deficit Widened, With Negligible Impact on Third-Quarter GDP Outlook. - October FOMC Meeting Should See a 50-Basis-Point Rate Cut and Renewed Quantitative Easing. - September Money Supply M3 Annual Growth Jumped to a 10-Year High."

The Obscure Origins of Yom Kippur -Haaretz
"It is a solemn day. The synagogues are packed with men and, usually in a separate section, women - often dressed in white, all praying that their sins be forgiven. Many of the worshipers wear Crocs, as leather shoes are not permitted. Yom Kippur in Israel is a special day indeed, but it is a far cry from the Day of Atonement of old....The three biblical mentions of the Day of Atonement (Numbers 29:7-11, Leviticus 16:1-34, and Leviticus 23:26-32) were inserted by priests during the Second Temple period to validate new rites added to purify the Temple in advance of the most important holiday in the Jewish calendar at the time, Sukkot. The priests of the Jerusalem Temple who inaugurated Yom Kippur seem to have had the 12-day Babylonian festival marking the new year, Akitu, in mind...Kippur meant 'to uncover' or 'to remove impurity,' which means a better translation of Yom Kippur to English would be 'Day of Purification.'....The practice of transferring the disfavor of a deity to an animal that is then removed from the community, what we call a 'scapegoat' based on the biblical passage....Then the goat would be led into the wilderness by a specially appointed man, usually a priest, accompanied by the city's dignitaries....Yoma ends with a discussion on whether all transgressions are remitted on Yom Kippur. It says that those transgressions carried out against other person's are not, while those against God are. This is the origin of the tradition of asking your fellow man for forgiveness on the days leading up to Yom Kippur. Naturally, once the Temple was destroyed by Titus in 70 CE, the main function of Yom Kippur, purifying the Temple in preparation for Sukkot, could not continue. Instead a new form of Yom Kippur formed over the centuries, centered on acknowledgement of wrongs, atonement - and praying for forgiveness in synagogues."

*Swiss America's offices will be closed Wednesday in observance of Yom Kippur*

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Gold last traded at $1,492 an ounce. Silver at $17.42 an ounce.

NEWS SUMMARY: Precious metal prices eased slightly Monday awaiting fresh economic indicators. U.S. stocks were little changed amid doubts of a breakthrough in U.S.-China trade talks, which are set to begin later this week.

"Money's Not Worth Anything Anymore" - Ex-Credit Suisse CEO Blasts "Crazy" Negative Rates -Zero Hedge
"Oswald Gruebel, who served as Credit Suisse CEO from 2004 to 2007 and as UBS Group AG's top executive from 2009 to 2011, has slammed ECB policy in an interview with Swiss newspaper NZZ am Sonntag. 'Negative interest rates are crazy. That means money is not worth anything anymore,' Gruebel exclaimed. 'As long as we have negative interest rates, the financial industry will continue to shrink.' Gruebel is not alone. As European bank bosses cast their eyes at their share prices, they are fighting back, some have said - biting the hand that feeds, in their attack on ECB policies, warning of severe consequences to asset prices and the broader economy. As Bloomberg reports, The ECB's imposition of negative interest rates have created an 'absurd situation' in which banks don't want to hold deposits, rages UBS CEO Sergio Ermotti....Deutsche Bank CEO Christian Sewing warned that more monetary easing by the ECB, as widely expected next week, will have 'grave side effects' for a region that has already lived with negative interest rates for half a decade. 'In the long run, negative rates ruin the financial system,' Sewing said....'What’s really worrisome: central banks have hardly any tools left to effectively mitigate a real economic crisis,' said Sewing."

This Is When the Market Goes Haywire -Stansberry/American Consequences
"On August 14, 2019, the Global Financial System Barometer ('GFSB') – the nominal yield of the U.S. government’s benchmark 10-year Treasury bond minus inflation – broke through a critical monetary threshold...And the GFSB, also referred to as the 'real' 10-year yield, plays a significant role...The chart explains what I'm talking about...As you can see, when the GFSB fell below the 2% mark (on the left scale), it heralded the beginnings of a true firestorm....If you look closely, you'll notice that the GFSB collapsed well past its 'resistance' point at 2% in early 2008. It happened just before investment banks began failing and the entire mortgage industry collapsed. What is important is that after dropping through the 2% threshold, the GFSB continued to fall until late 2012. Gold rallied this entire time...And then, suddenly, something changed... What was it? The system began to reflate... It began to work again. But it never made it back to the 1% line, much less the 2% level that ultimately began this crisis. In 2015, gold seemed to bottom at less than $1,100 per ounce. Last month, gold broke out to a six-year high of more than $1,500 per ounce...Meanwhile, the GFSB turned down again....This is wildly bullish for gold. I've predicted that gold would reach $2,500 per ounce....So what should you do today? I would urge you to consider adding a significant amount of gold and gold-related stocks to your portfolio...If we see 'real' yields on the 10-year Treasurys hold below zero, I expect gold will surge to more than $2,500 an ounce very quickly...on its way to $10,000 an ounce."

Will US dollar devaluation be Trump's next sudden move? -The Hill
"President Trump has waged war on the U.S. Federal Reserve (Fed) for more than a year, launching salvos of tweet-bombs laced with criticism and ridicule. Trump's main points have been that the Fed is too hawkish, and the U.S. dollar is too strong....A move by Trump to proactively de-value the U.S. dollar would be the monetary policy equivalent of the nuclear option, a weaponization that could set in motion an ugly currency war and a race to the bottom....The Fed faces a complex situation, and Powell is moving in the right direction, albeit very slowly, certainly too slowly for Trump. Capital markets have reached critical levels. There is a lot of uncertainty in the world apart from trade discussions between the U.S. and China. Something must give. No one expects a trade deal. The Chinese seem dug in and have prepared for difficult times. Trump has said the economic weakness associated with tariffs is a price worth paying to get to fair trade. The biggest surprise would be the announcement that both parties have come to terms. This would take the pressure off Trump to resort to the nuclear option."

Can Democrats Take Impeachment Seriously? -Noonan/Wall Street Journal
"It is assumed the House will impeach the president. If that is so, how is the great question. If it is a straight party-line vote, if it's shirts vs. skins, then the Democrats will have their victory in the House, quickly fail in the Senate, and not win in America. This cannot be one party doing its one-party thing. I think Nancy Pelosi knows that. The reason she did not put forward a formal resolution calling for an impeachment inquiry is said to be that she didn't want to jeopardize her moderate members from districts that voted for Mr. Trump....I suspect another reason Mrs. Pelosi didn't call a vote is that she knew the outcome would have been completely down-the-line partisan: Dems on this side, Reps on that. And that wouldn't look good. It would allow more than half the country to dismiss the effort as more party mischief. Here is a very open question: Can House Democrats control themselves?...Can they establish an air of earnestness and care, of fairness, of investigative depth?...There's a good-faith deficit in Congress now as it becomes more brutal and partisan. It leads to losing sight of the big picture, which is what is good for America....Here we get to Adam Schiff, chairman of the Intelligence Committee...He will be a face, maybe the face, of the impeachment hearings. He has already stepped in it with his tendentious paraphrasing of Mr. Trump's conversation with the president of Ukraine, a so-called parody that was bizarre, unserious, embarrassing....Mr. Schiff's weakness, at least in public, appears to be lack of judgment. You could see it last week in his questioning of the acting director of national intelligence, Joseph Maguire."

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Gold last traded at $1,505 an ounce. Silver at $17.55 an ounce.

NEWS SUMMARY: Precious metal prices traded steady Friday, ending the week with about a 1% increase, amid market volatility. U.S. stocks traded higher following the release of the latest U.S. jobs report, trimming their losses for the week.

Five reasons why gold is still worth owning -Marketwatch
"Given the big outperformance in gold, it's time to check back in with my gold gurus for a read on what you should do with gold now...In the medium term, there are still many solid reasons to own the yellow metal...In the short term, the next move in gold really comes down to what happens with the economy....It's worth owning some gold and gold-mining shares for five reasons. 1. Gold helps you play defense - A big risk now is that people talk the economy into recession by damaging business and consumer confidence...2. Central banks love gold again - Central banks are purchasing gold in volumes not seen in 50 years...3. The U.S. may be on course to debase the dollar - As both political parties throw caution to the wind on deficit spending, the U.S. is now borrowing almost a trillion dollars a year...'I would not be surprised to see gold at $2,000 an ounce in two years,' says Tom Winmill, who manages the Midas Fund...4. Gold has momentum - Money flows into gold mutual funds managed by U.S. Global Investors GROW, +1.03% shot up considerably in August and September...5. There may be supply shortages - At the Denver Gold Forum in September, Barrick Gold cautioned that mining production could fall by 45% over the next 10 years."

The Fed's Immoral Inflation Policy -Luddy/American Spectator
"The Fed's inflation policy is immoral and unethical, and it undermines the original intent to foster stable prices of the goods and services we purchase. Inflation undermines private property rights and steals money from the average person by reducing purchasing power every year. Prior to the creation of the Fed in 1913, America experienced deflation: the cost of goods was low due to the Industrial Revolution and the gold standard. Deflation increases the purchasing power of the dollar and can occur from innovation and disruptive competition. Think of the impact Uber and Amazon have each had on lowering prices on multiple products and services...In 1960, a dollar would purchase four gallons of gas or four loaves of bread. You could attend many private colleges for less than $1,000 per year, and the interest rate for savers was 3 percent. In 2012, the Federal Open Market Committee issued this statement: 'The Committee judges that inflation at the rate of 2 percent... is most consistent over the longer run with the Federal Reserve's statutory mandate.' This statement is in clear contradiction to the Fed's mandate for stable prices...The Fed simultaneously reduces the value of the dollar and arbitrarily keeps short-term rates low. Both of these policies undermine economic growth and eliminate the ability of the middle class to save and prosper. When inflation exceeds interest rates, there is zero incentive to save....According to the Bureau of Labor Statistics, during the entire 19th century the value of the dollar increased. Deflation actually allowed the dollar to purchase more, which is a great outcome. Because of inflation, however, it now takes $25 to purchase what one dollar could buy when the Fed was created in 1913. The Fed must discontinue its interventions to control market interest rates and let the free market prevail."

Hurry Up and Impeach -Rove/Wall Street Journal
"It has been only 10 days since Speaker Nancy Pelosi declared that the House was 'moving forward with an official impeachment inquiry' of President Trump, and Democrats are already blowing it. They are moving much too quickly. Democrats toss around the word 'urgent' as if speed is the prime imperative - more important than finding the truth or following procedure...Mrs. Pelosi told reporters, 'We have to strike while the iron is hot.'....The Democrats' need for speed has already resulted in unfairness....The rhetoric of House Democrats has made them appear inept - and appearances aren't always deceiving. Consider Mr. Schiff's stunt in opening the Intelligence Committee's hearing on Mr. Trump's conversation with the president of Ukraine. Mr. Schiff channeled his inner Martin Scorsese to revise the call's transcript, adding new words to make it sound like a scene out of 'Goodfellas.' He read his treatment to a national cable audience, only later admitting it was a 'parody.'....Yet all this zeal is unlikely to convince America that it's right to overturn the last presidential election and pre-empt the next one - only a year away - by evicting the occupant of the White House. Impeachment will drown out public awareness of legislation House Democrats passed to 'lower drug costs, increase worker pay and clean up Washington,' as their website proclaims, leaving them to look impeachment-obsessed. The good news for Democrats is that impeachment will also drown out their caucus's goofy ideas. Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez introduced six bills last week to create a 'just society' with national rent control, federal benefits for illegal aliens and more. The program's idiocy makes her Green New Deal look like the Federalist Papers....Rushing to remove this president may be cathartic for them, but their transparent partisanship and unfairness will ensure that they fail - leaving the country even more divided and bitter."

Why we ditched the Financial Independence/Retire Early (FIRE) movement -Marketwatch
"Early retirement is something most people write off as a pipe dream. For me, I didn't even know it was possible until I read some articles online about people my age throwing in the corporate towel forever. Turns out, what it takes to retire early was way more than my husband and I bargained for - and not worth our happiness....If you're not familiar with it, FIRE stands for Financial Independence/Retire Early, and it totally blew my mind. FIRE adherents are typically folks in their 20s, 30s, and 40s who are saving upward of 70% of their incomes in an effort to stash away 25x their annual living expenses. During early retirement they're pulling roughly 4% out of their nest eggs each year to live on...Once they hit their magic number, they're ditching their fluorescent-lit corporate cubicles for lives of adventure, travel, and, oftentimes, side hustles to support their flexible lifestyles and subsidize downturns in investment returns. After watching my parents struggle with their finances in retirement...the idea of FIRE was appealing...Before I knew it, I was down a virtual rabbit hole reading every single FIRE blog I could find and fantasizing about stepping away from my own corporate cubicle to live a life of freedom....Our extremely frugal lifestyle took shape by cutting out almost everything we ever enjoyed....But then something unexpected happened. As we watched our net worth climb higher and higher, we realized that our happiness level seemed to be in free fall....Time dragged on and after about two years of extreme frugality, my husband and I just couldn't shake the feeling of self-imposed deprivation....We decided the risk of retiring early, considering life's unexpected curveballs, simply wasn't worth the reward. ....Our balanced financial approach and overall smart money moves are creating a life of options and the life we want to live both now and later and we couldn't be happier."

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Gold last traded at $1,507 an ounce. Silver at $17.60 an ounce.

NEWS SUMMARY: Precious metal prices rose again Thursday on downbeat economic data. U.S. stocks traded mixed as expectations of further easing by the Fed offset negative manufacturing data.

Gold prices could soar to $2,000 next year -CNBC
"Gold prices could surge by about 30% to as high as $2,000 per ounce next year, according to David Roche, president and global strategist at Independent Strategy. The price of spot gold currently stands at around $1,500 per ounce. 'What my gut says is that cause of the vilification of fiat currencies by central bankers, which is set to get worse - not better, people will look for an alternative currency,' Roche told CNBC's 'Squawk Box' on Thursday. 'Gold is a good alternative currency because it's safe, and because it costs nothing to own it compared to paying negative rates on deposits,' Roche said. As a result, gold prices will likely touch $1,600 before the end of this year, before moving higher to $2,000 next year, he said. Roche said central banks are now 'quite rightly worried' about the next downturn...'That's why I buy gold.'"

Impeachment may lead to another October stock market crash -Crudele/New York Post
"I'm going to tell you what is likely to happen that will make this October potentially the most dangerous of them all. Another October stock market crash as in 1907, 1929, 1987 or the near-crash in 1989? I can't predict that. But I can predict that what's about to happen in Washington will keep investors awake at night....I predicted months ago that the Democrats would have to ramp up their attacks on President Trump as we got closer to the time when a report would be released by Justice Department Inspector General (IG) Michael Horowitz. That report, years in the making, will probably contain a lot of devastating details about dirty tricks that the Democrats and their sympathizers in the FBI and the CIA pulled on then-candidate Trump....It's likely that people will be criminally charged shortly by a grand jury that is said to now be impaneled in Connecticut. All of these developments could happen very soon. And I sense that the Democrats know this....The impeachment effort that's going on right now is a diversion - an attempt by the Democrats to get in front of the very bad things that are about to be released by Attorney General William Barr that are based on the findings of Horowitz....So how does this all affect the financial markets? The chaos is already bothering Wall Street...Trump has already said impeachment would cause the stock market to collapse. Wishful thinking, maybe, so he can blame the Democrats. But there are other economy problems all this political chaos could cause....All of this could push the US into a recession in 2020....Buckle up."

1,015,736,491,184 reasons to have a Plan B -Black/Sovereign Man
"Precisely one year ago, the US federal government opened Fiscal Year 2019 with a total debt level of $21.6 trillion...Today is the start of the government's 2020 Fiscal Year. And the total debt is now $22,622,684,674,364.43. That means they accumulated more than $1 TRILLION in new debt over the course of the 2019 Fiscal Year....FY2019 was, literally, the BEST year EVER measured by short-term US financial performance. The stock market reached an all-time high. Real estate prices reached an all-time high. Corporate profits are at record highs. Personal income is at a record high. Unemployment is hovering near an all-time low. And all of these factors drove US government tax revenue to an all-time high; Uncle Sam has never had more income in its entire history. Yet despite this bonanza of good news, the national debt STILL increased by more than a trillion dollars!....How much longer will everyone keep pretending that the world’s biggest debtor is simultaneously the world's biggest superpower?...5 years? 10 years? 13 months until the next election? No one knows for sure. But you don't need a PhD in economics to realize that this might not have a happy ending... or that you might want to think about a Plan B."

Federal government has dramatically expanded exposure to risky mortgages -Washington Post
"The federal government has dramatically expanded its exposure to risky mortgages, as federal officials over the past four years took steps that cleared the way for companies to issue loans that many borrowers might not be able to repay. Now, Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac and the Federal Housing Administration guarantee almost $7 trillion in mortgage-related debt, 33 percent more than before the housing crisis...In 2019, there is more government-backed housing debt than at any other point in U.S. history, according to data from the Urban Institute. Taxpayers are shouldering much of the risk, while a growing number of homeowners face debt payments that amount to nearly half of their monthly income, a threshold many experts consider too steep. Roughly 30 percent of the loans Fannie Mae guaranteed last year exceeded this level, up from 14 percent in 2016....The binge in high-risk lending has some executives and regulators on edge and could grow problematic if the economy continues to weaken or enters a recession, as more economists are predicting could happen within a year....'It's an explosion waiting to happen,' said Robert Pozen, the former president of Fidelity Investments and a senior lecturer at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology. 'People don't seem to be worried about it, but they weren't worried about it the last time until it all blew up.'"

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Gold last traded at $1,507 an ounce. Silver at $17.66 an ounce.

NEWS SUMMARY: Precious metal prices rushed higher on safe-haven buying amid rising global economic fears. U.S. stocks fell sharply - adding to Wall Street’s poor start to the final quarter of 2019 - as investors grapple with fears of an economic recession.

Grim choice for investors: Accept very low bond yields or face a 50% crash in stocks -Marketwatch
"U.S. stocks have proved Teflon-esque bouncing back from politics, trade and economic worries, but the sellers look ready to stick around after Tuesday’s shocking U.S. manufacturing data and subsequent market fallout. Stock futures and global equities are deep in the red for Wednesday....As stocks fell Tuesday, investors seeking a haven from economic concerns flocked to bonds, which drove yields down and prices higher. Our call of the day, from the president of Bianco Research, James Bianco says investors shouldn't wish for higher yields - a potential disaster for stocks....Bianco is convinced rates could go even lower...as central banks push interest rates further into negative territory and the global economy slows. But he thinks lots of investors haven't come to grips with that notion. 'A lot of people still think that safe, risk-free investment should still yield them 4% or 5%. But your reward for getting a 4% or 5% yield again is going to probably be a 30% or 50% decline in the stock market.'"

The Dow-to-Gold Ratio Says to Keep Holding Gold -Dyson/Bonner And Partners
"Look at this chart which shows the great wave of stock market valuations, oscillating between cheap and expensive every generation or so....Look how accurately the Dow-to-Gold index chart syncs up with the great valuation wave above. When valuations are in a bear market, as they have been since the year 2000, you hold gold until the great wave bottoms out. Then, when valuations are in a bull market, you hold stocks until the wave peaks....The last valuation extreme (a high) occurred in 1999. The Dow-to-Gold ratio hit 41. That was the time to rotate from stocks to gold. The next extreme (a low) will occur soon – probably in the next five or 10 years. And that will be a time to rotate from gold to stocks. We'll know it's time to rotate when valuations match the previous wave bottoms of 1933, 1950, and 1980. And when the Dow-to-Gold ratio has gone below 5....As we go to publication, it's just below 18. This could be the last time we see the Dow-to-Gold ratio near 18 for many years to come… and your last chance to get on the train before it leaves the station for good."

UBS Doubles Down On Gold - Ups Its Forecast Again! -Constable/Forbes
"The usually-conservative Swiss bank UBS has upped its forecast for the price of gold for the second time in less than two months. Now it says the price for the yellow metal could reach as high as $1,730 a troy ounce next year, up $50 from an August forecast, a recent UBS report states. The note last month pointed to the possibility of $1,680 over the same timeframe. If gold did soar that far it would be 17% above the recent price. The UBS report explains: 'An environment of negative and lower-for-longer real rates, slowing growth with downside risks, and elevated uncertainty strengthens the case for holding strategic gold allocations.'....The other bullish blessing is that most of the investor love for the metal has not come from individual investors. Individuals are well-known for buying and selling assets of any kind at precisely the wrong time. That means that their relative absence from gold investing is a good thing for investors who want to see the price of bullion rally. 'Participation so far has largely been limited to institutional investors and the official sector,' the report says."

Democrats' Plans to Tax Wealth Would Reshape U.S. Economy -New York Times
"Proposals from Elizabeth Warren and Bernie Sanders have raised concerns from economists and business leaders who fear the plans would sap economic growth. Progressive Democrats are advocating the most drastic shift in tax policy in over a century as they look to redistribute wealth and chip away at the economic power of the superrich with new taxes that could fundamentally reshape the United States economy. As they compete for the Democratic presidential nomination, Senators Elizabeth Warren of Massachusetts and Bernie Sanders of Vermont have proposed wealth taxes that would shrink the fortunes of the richest Americans. Their plans envision an enormous transfer of money from the wealthy to ordinary people, with revenue from the wealth tax used to finance new social programs like tuition-free college, universal child care and 'Medicare for all.' The wealth taxes under discussion would deal a major blow to the balance sheets of American plutocrats like Jeff Bezos, Bill Gates and Warren Buffett....While Ms. Warren ticks off the social programs that can be funded if the richest Americans pay just 2 cents on every dollar they have above $50 million - a number that is unimaginable to most Americans - skeptics warn of economic stagnation, depressed business confidence and a legal battle that would go to the Supreme Court....Left-leaning economists have expressed their own doubts about a wealth tax."

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Gold last traded at $1,488 an ounce. Silver at $17.27 an ounce.

NEWS SUMMARY: Precious metal prices rose sharply on safe-haven buying and a weaker dollar. U.S. stocks fell sharply as U.S. manufacturing hit a 10-year low amid rising geopolitical uncertainty.

Don't expect calm markets in October, historically a month for wild swings -CNBC
"October has historically been the most volatile month as the Volatility Index, or the VIX, tends to peak in the month, jumping to more than 21 points on average over the past 30 years, according to Macro Risk Advisors....'We've been spoiled by the lack of volatility, and it increases the chances of a little more explosive October,' Ryan Detrick, senior market strategist for LPL Financial, told CNBC. 'One thing we know is the markets don't stay calm forever and we've seen that multiple times this year' There isn't a lack of catalysts to drive the market crazy, including upcoming trade talks, third-quarter earnings reports and President Donald Trump’s impeachment saga....Tensions escalated ahead of the highly-anticipated trade talks, which resume on Oct. 10 in Washington. Reports on Friday said Trump administration officials are considering ways to limit U.S. investors' portfolio flows into China, including delisting Chinese companies from American stock exchanges....October is also the month when big crashes have occurred, including 1929 and 1987."

Buffett's Deception On Gold -Dohman/Forbes
"Warren Buffett is not a fan of gold....Let's see what gold has done since 2001 when I gave a renewed long-term 'buy' signal...Gold plunged to about $250 by year 2001. At that time, no one even wanted to hear the word 'gold.' Bearish sentiment was at extreme highs. As you can see in this chart, gold far outperformed the S&P 500 since 2001. Buffett uses arbitrary dates, similar to many stock analysts who want to make a point against gold. They pick the dates that give them the results they want....Some speculators like more excitement in their trades, such as cryptocurrencies, which go up or down 20%-30% in 24 hours. In exchange for your money you get a computer entry, nothing tangible. Eventually, these cryptos will be regulated out of existence. The central banks can'’t tolerate private entities overtaking its role of creating money out of thin air. I prefer something the central banks of the world buy many tons of: gold....Gold will become the most desirable asset when the central banks restart their QE (quantitative easing) programs in order to avoid devastating recessions. The purchasing power of money will be eroded significantly....The role of corrections in gold are to 'shake the tree,' i.e. to separate weak holders from their holdings....I always look for investments that have something of value. It let's me sleep at night."

Investors Scramble for Yield as Growth Outlook Darkens -Wall Street Journal
"The world is again running low on yield. Around $15 trillion in government debt globally now has negative yields, meaning investors are paying for the privilege of parking their money with a sovereign issuer. The yield on the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury note fell near all-time lows in early September before recovering slightly to end Friday at 1.678%....The environment has changed so much that many began to seriously debate if U.S. yields could hit zero, or even turn negative. Now, investors are once again being forced to look farther afield for income and returns. At the same time, big gains in the stock market - the S&P 500 is up a little over 18% year-to-date as of Friday - have whetted investors' appetite for the type of returns that, in most cases, are beyond the scope of most yield-bearing assets....Preferred stocks and real-estate investment trusts are among the other assets that investors have piled into as global yields declined. Even gold, which yields nothing, has become a more attractive choice when compared with negative-yielding European or Japanese bonds. The precious metal, a popular haven during times of economic or political uncertainty, hit a six-year high in September."

Truth Bombs from Milton Friedman -FEE.org
"American economist Milton Friedman rose to prominence in the second half of the 20th century as one of the leading critics of the prevailing economic theories of John Maynard Keynes, whose mixed economy model became the standard for many developed nations during and after the World War II-era...He received an MA in economics and would ultimately retire in 1977 after more than 30 years of teaching - a year after receiving the Nobel Prize for his contributions to economic science. The Economist has described Friedman as 'a giant among economists' and 'the most influential economist of the second half of the 20th century.' Here are things he said to serve as food for thought: 'Underlying most arguments against the free market is a lack of belief in freedom itself.'...'One of the great mistakes is to judge policies and programs by their intentions rather than their results.'...'The society that puts equality before freedom will end up with neither. The society that puts freedom before equality will end up with a great measure of both.'...'Governments never learn; only people learn.'...'The great virtue of a free market system is that it does not care what color people are; it does not care what their religion is; it only cares whether they can produce something you want to buy. It is the most effective system we have discovered to enable people who hate one another to deal with one another and help one another.'"

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