Dollar weak, metals strong
"Fed organizing attack on dollar's value" -Hathaway
BY DAVID BRADSHAW ~ Editor, Real Money Perspectives
features ~ links ~ wisdom ~ weekly email ~ daily email
Oct 29, 2010 ~ ((M-F podcast)) ~ gold fraud alert!

Friday gold prices rushed near $1360/oz. and silver rose to $24.75/oz. as U.S. economic growth met expectations for Q3 on a tepid GDP annual rate of 2%. U.S. consumer sentiment dropped to its lowest point in 11 months.

* Gold vs. the Fed: The Record Is Clear: "When the Fed meets next week, it is widely expected to signal its desire to increase inflation by providing additional stimulus. This policy is based on a false—and dangerous—premise: that manipulating the dollar's buying power will lead to higher employment and economic growth. But the experience of the past 40 years points to the opposite conclusion: that guaranteeing a stable value for the dollar by restoring dollar-gold convertibility would be the surest way for the Federal Reserve to achieve its dual mandate of maximum employment and price stability," reports WSJ.

* "The government reports consumer prices grew at an annual rate of just 1.1%, but on average, our basic food costs have increased by an incredible 48% over the last year (measured by wheat, corn, oats, and canola prices). The jump in gold and silver prices illustrates that it's not just supply and demand issues driving the precious metals higher, the decline in purchasing power of the dollar is also showing up in the price of physical goods." Check out the "real inflation" chart at courtesy of Casey Research.

* $3,000 gold and $70 silver could come in 5 years: -Michael Berry "Investor, mathematician and former fund manager Michael Berry, PhD, is bullish on gold, which he expects will double or more in price in the not-too-distant future," reports Mineweb.

* U.S. facing $120 trillion on plastic: "Warning that the U.S. dollar today is backed only by 'promises' from the same politicians who created today's economic disaster, longtime monetary expert Craig R. Smith documents in a new book that the nation already faces some $120,000,000,000,000 ($120 trillion) in debt, deficit and unfunded liabilities. The analysis comes in Crashing the Dollar: How to Survive a Global Currency Collapse, by Smith, who is founder and chairman of Swiss America Trading Corp., and co-author Lowell Ponte, a contributing editor at Newsmax Magazine," reports WND. [Read book Introduction]

* Dollar at Risk of Becoming 'Toxic Waste': "The dollar's slump could get far worse if the dollar index takes out last year's low, Robin Griffiths, technical strategist at Cazenove Capital, told CNBC Monday. "If the (dollar index) takes out the low that was made roughly a year ago I really think that will not only encourage more sales, it will cause a little bit of minor panic," Griffiths said.

*Officials hint Fed on the verge of more easing
A string of Federal Reserve officials on Tuesday indicated the central bank will soon offer further monetary stimulus to the economy, with one saying $100 billion a month in bond buys may be appropriate. While internal differences on the unconventional policy are still evident, the consensus view appears to be the economy is weak enough to warrant further support, most likely through increased purchases of Treasury debt, reports Reuters.

*Industrial output falls as monetary easing seen Industrial production contracted in September for the first time in more than a year, pointing to continued slowdown in growth and cementing expectations of further monetary policy easing next month. Industrial production fell 0.2 percent, the first decline since June 2009, after increasing 0.2 percent in August, the Fed said, reports Reuters.

* "Goldman Sachs has raised its 12-month forecast for gold to $1,650 an ounce, citing expectations for further quantitative easing in the U.S. and prospects for long-term interest rates to continue falling. With U.S. real interest rates pushing lower off the slowdown in the pace of the U.S. economic recovery and the growing prospect of another round of quantitative easing, we expect gold prices to continue to climb," said Goldman reports Kitco.

*Gold vs Treasuries - which to believe? Any psychoanalyst looking at the behavior of investors today would see clear strains of schizophrenia in a comparison between the markets for gold and US Treasuries, reports Asia Times.

* Recovery Looks Like a Recession -NYT: "This is not what a recovery is supposed to look like. In Atlanta, the Bank of America tower, the tallest in the Southeast, is nearly a fifth vacant, and bank officials just wrestled a rent cut from the developer. In Cherry Hill, N.J., 10 percent of the houses on the market are so-called short sales, in which sellers ask for less than they owe lenders. And in Arizona, in sun-blasted desert subdivisions, owners speak of hours cut, jobs lost and meals at soup kitchens. The decision last week by leading mortgage lenders to freeze foreclosures, and calls for a national moratorium, could cast a long shadow of uncertainty over banks and the housing market. Put simply, the national economy has fallen so far that it could take years to climb back," reports CNBC.

* "Federal Reserve policy makers may want Americans to expect inflation to accelerate in the future so they spend more of their money now. Central bankers, seeking ways to boost flagging growth after lowering interest rates almost to zero and buying $1.7 trillion of securities, are weighing strategies for raising inflation expectations as well as expanding the balance sheet by purchasing Treasuries," reports Bloomberg.

Learn more about us debt.
*The demise of the dollar In the most profound financial change in recent Middle East history, Gulf Arabs are planning – along with China, Russia, Japan and France – to end dollar dealings for oil, moving instead to a basket of currencies including the Japanese yen and Chinese yuan, the euro, gold and . . . (more at The Independent).

* Doug Casey's best advice to savers and investors: "I think you have to continue buying gold and buy a position in silver. The other thing to remember is that there will be other bubbles ignited with the trillions of currency units that most of the governments of the world are creating. Overall that's disastrous, but it does create the potential for making gigantic real gains in wealth. But let me make another comment on gold, especially at these levels. It's not something to make money, it is something to preserve the wealth you have..."reports DailyBell.

* "The U.S. Federal Reserve runs the risk of diminishing returns from its next round of money printing...but that won't stop it from trying. The Fed's most recent policy-setting meeting may reflect some divisions among officials over whether to launch another round of asset purchases, known as quantitative easing," reports CNBC.

*Bernanke Tells the Truth: The United States is on Brink of Financial Disaster
Last week, Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke delivered a speech before the Annual Meeting of the Rhode Island Public Expenditure Council in Providence. In the speech, he warned about the current state of the government finances. His conclusion, the situation is dire and "unsustainable," reports

* "The U.S. economy unexpectedly shed jobs in September for a fourth straight month as government payrolls fell and private hiring was less than expected, hardening expectations of further Federal Reserve action to spur the recovery. Nonfarm payrolls dropped 95,000, the Labor Department said on Friday," reports CNBC.

* Dollar set for sharp decline -Goldman: "The dollar will embark on a sharp decline over the next 12 months, Goldman Sachs forecast on Wednesday, as policy makers in Washington look poised to press the trigger on another round of printing money. Separately, Goldman’s chief economist, Jan Hatzius, warned that the world’s biggest economy faces a 'fairly bad' or a 'very bad' scenario over the next six to nine months," reports Telegraph

* "The dollar tumbled to a fresh 15-year low against the yen in Tokyo on Thursday on persistent fears over the US economic outlook. The markets increasingly expect the Federal Reserve to pump more money into the system to boost the flagging economy, even if doing so weakens the dollar and risks fanning inflation," reports AFP.

* Fear undermines America's recovery: "Most in the business community attribute the massive rise in their uncertainty to the collapse of economic activity, but its continuance since the recovery took hold is attributed to the widespread major restructuring of our financial system and the burgeoning federal deficit, which creates critical future tax uncertainty," writes former Fed Chairman Alan Greenspan at FinTimes.

* Fed's financial shell game: "Commodities could extend a rally that has lifted prices more than 10% since late August, if central banks pump billions more dollars into the global economy to prop up the sputtering recovery. Quantitative easing is no sure bet. Bernanke has promised to use the policy only if necessary and with policymakers warning of currency wars if a sharp devaluation of the dollar exacerbates global trade imbalances. It's a financial shell game," reports Reuters.

* "The long-term prospects for gold, the ultimate alternative to weakening currencies, are brighter than ever: Given a deflationary environment and risks to growth, central banks want to provide more liquidity and currency wars are intensifying by the minute," reports Marketwatch.

* Amid fears of economic instability, investors' appetite for gold as protection of wealth has surged. Gold, usually moving inversely to currency, has this year outperformed global equities, government bonds and most industrial metals," reports Telegraph.

* "Gold's run to record highs is likely to maintain its current momentum for the rest of 2010, with a snap poll of analysts conducted by Reuters this week finding two out of three see prices above $1,350 by year-end. Eleven out of the 21 analysts polled say they expected the precious metal to be trading between $1,350 and $1,400 an ounce by Dec. 31, while two respondents saw prices higher still," reports Reuters.

* Michael Savage has a "manifesto for saving America," and it will come as no surprise to his millions of faithful radio listeners that it offers prescriptions that aren't found in the House Republicans' "Pledge to America." Savage's 37-point plan – "Trickle Up Poverty: Stopping Obama's Attack on Our Borders, Economy and Security" by HarperCollins – hits bookstores today with a call to "run the country like a business, not an empire; close the borders; institute a flat tax; use profiling to prevent terror attacks; and privatize the regulation of Wall Street;" among others," reports WND.

* Gold Is Not The Next Disaster: "Any asset that has had the kind of run that gold has had could easily be hit with a correction. Look at this asset as a long-term balancing asset for your strategy. Don't be tricked into believing, despite marketing campaigns and flashy advertisements, into believing gold is an automatic short-term profitable investment. There is no automatic investment that will guarantee returns including gold. Still, I believe that if one is patient, a long-term viewpoint will be rewarded," reports CNBC.

* Super-rich investors buy gold -UBS: "Fears of a double-dip downturn have boosted the appetite for physical bullion as well as for mining company shares and exchange-traded funds, UBS executive Josef Stadler told the Reuters Global Private Banking Summit. 'They don't only buy ETFs or futures; they buy physical gold,' said Stadler, who runs the Swiss bank's services for clients with assets of at least $50 million to invest. UBS is recommending top-tier clients hold 7-10% of their assets in precious metals like gold," reports Reuters.

*Obama’s Full-Month Approval Rating Falls to New Low The number of voters who Strongly Disapprove of the president’s performance inched up a point to a new high of 44% in September. At the same time, the number who Strongly Approve held steady at 27%. The full month numbers show Strong Approval from 54% of Democrats with Strong Disapproval from 75% of Republicans and 49% of unaffiliated voters. Rasmussen Reports

* "Euro gains helped push the dollar index to an eight-month low against a basket of currencies last week....Analysts and traders said the market focus remained on the prospect of further quantitative easing measures in the United States and possibly in the UK. In contrast, the ECB appeared to be on a gradual path towards removing policy stimulus," reports Reuters.

* World Monetary Earthquake: "Within a single week 25 nations have deliberately slashed the values of their currencies. Nothing quite comparable with this has ever happened before in the history of the world. This world monetary earthquake will carry many lessons. Murmurings of such 'beggar-thy-neighbor' currency devaluations have once again sprung up amongst the financial literati and rightly so," reports KingWorldNews.

* Enjoying the Weak Dollar? You Could Live to Regret It: "The dollar's plunge has fueled worries of a global trade war as weak economies race to the bottom in devaluing their currencies. The dollar, though, seems to be taking the hardest hit as belief fades that US policymakers will defend it. 'We are witnessing a full, frontal, material and joint assault upon the dollar and sadly it appears that the best the dollar can do is 'bounce' for a day or two or three before the assault shall begin anew,' wrote hedge fund manager Dennis Gartman," reports CNBC.

Algorithm Set Off 'Flash Crash' Amid Stressed Market
Federal regulators investigating the causes of the May 6 "flash crash" concluded a large trader's use of a computer trading system to sell futures contracts led to a rapid and sudden selling that triggered additional selloffs in an already unstable market.They also pointed to the interaction between such automated execution programs and computer-driven trading models for the swift plunge in the stock market that day, which wiped out nearly $900 billion in equity-market value in less than 20 minutes. WSJ

* "The U.S. dollar is one step nearer to a crisis as debt levels in the world’s largest economy increase, said Yu Yongding, a former adviser to China’s central bank. Any appreciation of the dollar is 'really temporary' and a devaluation of the currency is inevitable as U.S. debt rises, Yu said in a speech in Singapore today. 'Such a huge amount of debt is terrible. The situation will be worsening day by day. I think we are one step nearer to a U.S. dollar crisis," reports Bloomberg.

*The End of Social Security as We Know It On September 30, America will quietly begin a generational shift. This will be the final day of the government’s fiscal year 2010, and consequentially, a very notable day for Social Security. September 30 will be the last day – maybe for a long time – that Social Security could possibly be operating at a surplus.Back in March, the Congressional Budget Office (CBO) admitted that most Social Security funding projections were way off, and that sometime in 2010 the program would begin paying out more than it’s taking in.Daily Reckoning

* "The ratio of gold to silver dropped below 60 for the first time since October. Silver has outperformed the yellow metal since June 30, advancing 17% against gold’s 5.5% increase, as investors bought the commodity because of its comparative cheapness," reports Bloomberg.

* Pension Funds Could Give Boost To Gold: "Gold could get a further boost if pension funds begin to diversify into the metal. This trend looks set to continue and is significant as pension-fund assets are very large versus the small market that is gold. The entire global gold supply is worth less than $200 billion a year while the largest 300 pension funds collectively hold about $6 trillion in assets. Therefore, even a small allocation of 3% to 5% to gold would contribute to higher prices," reports GoldCore.

* Gold Bubble?...Not By This Fiat Measuring Stick: "If blind allegiance is pledged to a faith based currency, and unswerving trust is bestowed upon its guardians, than gold must appear to be trading at absurd levels. Conversely, if the actions of the Fed, Treasury, and Congress continue as they have, and no credible indication to the contrary has been remotely telegraphed yet, than history may prove the most astute forecaster. In such an environment, gold may not only not be in a bubble, but in the preliminary stages of a monumental bull market leading to the unthinkable. And the last point may be that when priced in future dollars, as when measured in Zimbabwe dollars or Weimer Republic Mark notes, whatever price level gold ascends to could be a point of permanence," reports Chris Blasi of at GoldIRAs.

* "Barrick Gold, the world's number one miner of the precious metal, said on Monday gold prices could 'easily' outperform recent record highs to rise above $1,500 an ounce in the next year. Demand for gold has soared in recent years as the financial crisis boosted the precious metal's appeal as a haven from risk, while concerns quantitative easing may debase paper currencies have fueled buying of bullion as an alternative asset," reports Reuters.

*Greenspan on gold: “Fiat money has no place to go but gold,” said Alan Greenspan at the September meeting of the Council of Foreign Relations. According to economist David Malpass, who quotes the former Fed Chairman, Mr. Greenspan was responding to the question of why gold was hitting new highs. Greenspan replied that he’d thought a lot about gold prices over the years and decided the supply and demand explanations treating gold like other commodities “ simply don’t pan out.” Mr. Malpass characterized Mr. Greenspan's statement by saying, “He’d concluded that gold is simply different.” Said the former Fed chairman: “If all currencies are moving up or down together, the question is: relative to what? Gold is the canary in the coal mine. It signals problems with respect to currency markets. Central banks should pay attention to it.” NY Sun

*Gold is the final refuge against universal currency debasement.
States accounting for two-thirds of the global economy are either holding down their exchange rates by direct intervention or steering currencies lower in an attempt to shift problems on to somebody else, each with their own plausible justification. Nothing like this has been seen since the 1930s. Former Fed chair Paul Volcker says, "We are no longer talking about a single country having a big depression but the entire world." Telegraph

*White House: Economic Recovery "Is Going To Take an Enormous Amount of Time" At the press briefing on September 21, White House Press Secretary Robert Gibbs said that the economic recovery “is going to take an enormous amount of time,” and when asked to clarify that, he said, “It’s going to take several years.” Gibbs’s dim projection comes more than 20 months after Obama’s top economic advisers predicted that if Congress enacted the president’s economic stimulus package, the national unemployment rate (7.7 percent in January 2009) would drop to 7.0 percent by the fourth quarter of 2010. Today, the national unemployment rate is 9.6 %.

* 30% of Americans Call Themselves 'Supporters' of Tea Party -Gallup: "The number of Americans who say they identify with the Tea Party has remained remarkably consistent -- and not declined as the liberal media had predicted. A recent Gallup Poll finds that 30% of Americans say they are supporters of the Tea Party movement, while 27% say they are opponents – a 2% increase in support since March," reports CNSNews.

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