March Blog Archives 2017

Gold last traded at $1,251 an ounce. Silver at $18.25 an ounce.

NEWS SUMMARY: Precious metal prices rose Friday as a weaker dollar boosted safe-haven appeal. U.S. stocks traded mixed amid rising political and economic uncertainty. Precious metal prices rose between 8%-14% in the first quarter of 2017, outperforming stock indexes which are up between 5%-6%.

Just a quick reminder: the Federal Reserve is almost insolvent -Black/SovereignMan
"From the start of the financial crisis in September 2008 until the day the Fed’s balance sheet peaked in January 2015, the average yield on the 10-year US Treasury was about 2.6%. That’s close to where the 10-year yield is today; just last week it was 2.62%. This is where things quickly get out of control....Since the start of the financial crisis, the Fed has whittled down its capital buffer to almost nothing - right around $40 billion. This means that the Fed can only afford to lose $40 billion before going bust. $40 billion might sound like a lot. But considering the Fed has $2.4 trillion in government bonds, and $4.5 trillion in total assets, $40 billion is nothing - just 0.9% of the Fed’s total asset portfolio. So if bond prices fall by just 0.9%, i.e. interest rates go up just slightly, the Fed will be insolvent."

Metals Enjoy Longest Rally in Seven Years as Low Rates Lure Cash -Bloomberg
"Metals were one of the best investments in 2016, and that’s turning out to be true again this year. An index of the six major metals rose for the fifth straight quarter, the longest stretch of gains since 2010. Gold is up 8.8 percent, the best performance in a year. For comparison, global equities are up about 6 percent for the quarter. More money is flowing into commodities as investors search for investments that can keep up with faster inflation, and metals such as copper face supply shortages. The weaker dollar and lower inflation-adjusted yields, also known as real yields, have made alternative assets more appealing....Silver advanced almost 15 percent. The strength in metals contrasts with weaker performance from energy and agricultural commodities."

Retail bankruptcies march toward post-recession high -CNBC
"The number of retailers filing for Chapter 11 bankruptcy protection is headed toward its highest annual tally since the Great Recession. Nine retailers have filed in just the first three months of 2017, according to data provided exclusively to CNBC from AlixPartners consulting firm. That equals the number for all of 2016. It also puts the industry on pace for the highest number of such filings since 2009, when 18 retailers resorted to that action. Year-to-date Chapter 11 filings: Gordmans Stores, Gander Mountain, General Wireless Operations (formerly RadioShack), HHGregg, BCBG Max Azria, Michigan Sporting Goods Distributors, Eastern Outfitters, Wet Seal, Limited Stores. But it isn't just bankrupt retailers chopping off real estate. Macy's, J.C. Penney, Sears and Kmart are in the process of closing nearly 400 stores, as smaller chains like GameStop and Abercrombie & Fitch take similar actions. Those vacancies are likely to have ripple effects through the industry, Rieger-Paganis said."

Wells Fargo launches card-free ATM access -Mercury News
"Wells Fargo on Monday began to offer card-free ATM access through a coast-to-coast rollout of changes in how people can access the ubiquitous machines. Instead of a physical card, customers will be able to use their mobile Wells Fargo app to choose card-free ATM access and then obtain a one-time token for that session to conduct transactions at the machine. 'We believe the future is cardless, and the launch of One-Time Access Code provides our 20 million mobile banking customers another convenient way to manage money,' said Brett Pitts, Well Fargo’s head of digital for virtual channels....Here’s how it works: First, people can install Wells Fargo’s mobile app on their smartphone and log into the app. Then, they can navigate to account services and choose card-free ATM access. At that point, they can request the eight-digit one-time-use token. After arriving at an ATM machine, people can enter the token and then their ATM personal identification number."

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Gold last traded at $1,248 an ounce. Silver at $18.20 an ounce.

NEWS SUMMARY: Precious metal prices took a breather Thursday amid profit-taking and a firmer dollar. U.S. stocks rose as investors digested key economic data and kept an eye on rising oil prices.

Gold Heads for Best Quarter in a Year -Bloomberg video
"Newcrest Mining CFO Gerard Bond discusses his outlook for gold. He speaks with Bloomberg's Stephen Engle at the Credit Suisse Asian Investment Conference in Hong Kong."

When asked about what direction Mr. Bond sees for gold prices ahead, his response was that Newcrest Mining tries not to focus on the gold price, but instead on how to cut costs and increase shareholder dividends. Bond says that over the last 18 months they have observed an increased interest in gold's safe haven properties during periods of uncertainty, which is supportive of higher gold prices ahead.

Gold prices, which began the year at $1,150 an ounce, are on track to end the first quarter near $1,250 an ounce on Friday, an increase of over 8%. At this pace, gold prices could end 2017 sitting atop $1,500 an ounce. Meanwhile, silver prices began 2017 at $15.90 an ounce and have rocketed 14% to $18.14 an ounce during the first quarter. Read our 2017 Gold Report: Early Edition and 2017 Silver Report: The Infrastructure Metal to discover why physical gold and silver are a winning addition to your portfolio in 2017.

Britain is the least of Europe’s problems -Evans-Pritchard/Telegraph
"The European Union is encircled on the outside, split three ways on the inside, and is saddled with a corrosive currency union that is still not established on workable foundations and is likely to lurch from crisis to crisis until patience is exhausted. Europe’s economic 'Lost Decade', and the strategic consequences that stem partly from this failure, have emboldened enemies and turned the Continent into a dangerous neighborhood. The EU now badly needs a friend on its Atlantic flank....In the West, the EU faces Donald Trump. This is a US president who refused to shake the hand of German Chancellor Angela Merkel. For the first time since the launch of the European project in the 1950s, the US no longer sees the EU as an asset in the diplomatic equation. Many in the White House would happily see it broken up.... For all the noise over Brexit, the UK is really the least of their problems....With or without Brexit, the EU has to keep living with the error of monetary union, so destructive that one leading voice of the French establishment has written a book, La Fin du Reve Europeen, calling for the euro to be broken up in order to save what remains of the European project....The ECB will have to taper and ultimately end its bond purchases as global reflation builds. The markets know that once Frankfurt rolls back emergency stimulus, as it must do to avert a political storm in Germany over rising prices, Italy, Portugal, and Spain will lose a buyer-of-last-resort for their debt."

CBO Warns Of Fiscal Catastrophe As A Result Of Exponential Debt Growth In The U.S. -Zero Hedge
"In a just released report from the CBO looking at the long-term US budget outlook, the budget office forecasts that both government debt and deficits are expected to soar in the coming 30 years, with debt/GDP expected to hit 150% by 2047 if the current government spending picture remains unchanged. The CBO's revision from the last, 2016 projection, shows a marked deterioration in both total debt and budget deficits, with the former increasing by 5% to 146%, while the latter rising by almost 1% from 8.8% of GDP to 9.6% by 2017....On the growth side, the CBO expects 2% or less GDP growth over the next three decades, far below the number proposed by the Trump administration....The CBO's troubling conclusion: Greater Chance of a Fiscal Crisis...The resulting losses for mutual funds, pension funds, insurance companies, banks, and other holders of government debt might be large enough to cause some financial institutions to fail, creating a fiscal crisis."

What Is the Best Age at Which to Learn Economics? -Tucker/FEE
"Exchange is part of life, even from the youngest age. At first, little kids fight over stuff and their parents have to settle it. But as they get older, perhaps after the age of 6 or so, they discover something wonderful. They can avoid punching and anger, trade with each other, and both parties come away happy....As people enter middle school, exchange becomes a huge part of social life. It involves anything and everything: apples, sandwiches, candy, and notes from school....Then high school comes and things become much more complicated. Those who can drive trade their services for money, concert tickets, clothing, and so on. All parties can gain from trade while preserving the peace. It's an awesome discovery, perhaps the greatest discovery in history. Each of us finds it out in our own lives, and we live with this reality until death....At some point, the day arrives. Maybe at age 15, maybe 17. It depends on the person. But there is a moment when it is time and you are able to wrap your mind around basic economics. That lesson is something you carry with you the rest of your life. You become a better professional, a better friend, a better person, a better voter! Economics as a discipline can change your life."

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Gold last traded at $1,253 an ounce. Silver at $18.25 an ounce.

NEWS SUMMARY: Precious metal prices traded steady Wednesday amid mild profit-taking and a stronger dollar. U.S. stocks traded mixed on higher oil prices as the Brexit process officially begins.

Risky Not to Be in Gold, Silver Right Now -TheStreet
"Before you consider exiting the gold market now, think twice, said Paul Mladjenovic, author of Precious Metals Investing for Dummies. 'I think the risk is not being in gold and silver right now,' said Mladjenovic in an interview with Kitco News on Tuesday. The author suggested that gold will likely head north of $1,300 an ounce and silver will reach $20 an ounce. Gold prices ended a choppy, two-sided trading session slightly lower Tuesday. A solid rebound in the U.S. stock market and a higher U.S. dollar index on this day was negative for the precious metals. Gold prices also saw a bit of profit taking from recent gains that pushed prices to a four-week high Monday. Silver saw decent gains Tuesday and hit a four-week high."

Gold Set to Soar to $1,500 as Inflation Makes a Comeback -Bloomberg
"Gold is poised to rally to levels last seen four years ago as rising inflation and negative real interest rates combine to boost demand, according to Incrementum AG, which says that the precious metal may be in the early stages of a bull market. Prices may climb to $1,400 to $1,500 an ounce this year, said Ronald-Peter Stoeferle, managing partner at the Liechtenstein-based company, which oversees 100 million Swiss francs ($101.5 million)....'Inflation is picking up,' said Stoeferle, citing what he termed monetary inflation as well as rising assets such as equities, and prospects for price inflation. 'We’re seeing a pick-up in inflation all across the globe. We’re seeing it in the U.S., where basically every inflation indicator is constantly rising and making new highs. We’re seeing it in Europe, we’re seeing it in Asia.'"

The time to prepare your portfolio for rising inflation is before it becomes headline news, then it's too late. Read THE INFLATION SOLUTION, Swiss America's newest special report.

Chinese Gold Miner Claims Discovery Of Largest Ever Gold Mine -Zero Hedge
"Shandong Gold Group, China’s second biggest gold producer by output, announced on Tuesday that it has discovered deposits in eastern China containing an estimated 380 tons of gold reserves, which would represent the nation’s largest ever gold deposit. According to a Tuesday statement that cited the company on sdchina.com, the Xiling mine in Shandong province told local authorities it had found 382.58 tons of gold reserves and that the volume could reach more than 550 tons once exploration is completed in two years. According to local media reports, the Xiling gold seam in eastern China is more than 2,000 meters long and 67 meters wide; operating at full capacity, the mine would have a life of 40 years, according to the statement. China had the fifth largest gold reserves in the world after the United States, Germany, Italy, and France....Chinese gold companies have been stepping up their search for domestic deposits and eyeing acquisitions as the nation seeks to increase reserves by 3,000 tons to as much as 14,000 tons by 2020, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology said last month. That amount of holdings would propel China into first place globally for official gold reserves."

Shadow Banking Is Getting Bigger Without Getting Better -Bloomberg
"In a fresh working paper, Greg Buchak and Gregor Matvos of the University of Chicago, Tomasz Piskorski of Columbia Business School and Stanford's Amit Seru calculated that between 2007 and 2015, so-called shadow banks have increased their share of the U.S. Federal Housing Administration mortgage market sevenfold to 75 percent. That's the market where the less creditworthy borrowers get their loans. In the U.S. mortgage market as a whole, shadow banks held a 38 percent share in 2015, compared with 14 percent in 2007....The reason shadow banks have largely escaped public scorn, regulatory scrutiny and high capital requirements is that they often came in the guise of high-tech disruptors. Quicken Loans Inc., the third biggest mortgage lender in the U.S. in 2015, does business online and on the phone, and that somehow makes it less interesting to regulators than a bank that does the same through an old-style branch network....It's probably unrealistic to expect major easing of banks' regulatory burden. Governments, however, could level the playing field by deciding that any lender is a bank and imposing the same tough rules on all of them."

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Gold last traded at $1,255 an ounce. Silver at $18.20 an ounce.

NEWS SUMMARY: Precious metal prices held steady Tuesday as rising consumer confidence boosted the buck. U.S. stocks shrugged off their recent losing streak amid strong consumer confidence data, with financials and energy leading.

Gold investment seen rising for 4th year in 2017 -CPM/Reuters
"Gold bullion investment will rise for the fourth straight year in 2017 as global political and economic factors are forecast to maintain buying interest, CPM Group said on Tuesday. 'There has been a return of opportunistic generalist investors who had exited gold in late 2011 and early 2012," New York-based CPM Group said in its Gold Yearbook 2017....'Most long-term gold investors do not seem to expect the world's financial and political systems to collapse. Rather, they see them as facing major structural problems that will not be easily resolved or repaired in any short period of time,' CPM said....The lack of clarity regarding the outcomes of U.S. President Donald Trump's campaign promises and interest rate increases by the Federal Reserve to raise interest rate hikes is expected to prevent precious metals prices from taking a clear direction in 2017, CPM said."

Get Prepared, A Massive Global Collapse Is Coming -Greyerz/KingWorldNews
"There is only one reason why the US could live above its means for over 50 years and that is because the dollar is the world’s reserve currency. But how can the world trust a reserve currency which is based on unlimited debt creation and money printing. Since Nixon abolished the gold backing of the dollar on August 15, 1971, the US currency has had a precipitous fall. Measured in Swiss Franc, for example, the dollar is down 77% since 1971. And against the only money which has survived in history and money which represents stable purchasing power, gold, the dollar is down 80%....Since 1970, the US has had a trade deficit every year except for in 1972 and 1974. That led to a cumulative deficit of $2 trillion over 20 years, up to 1999. But then things exploded. Between 1999 and 2017 the cumulative trade deficit was $12 trillion....And this is why the US and the rest of the world is living on borrowed time....Gold has partially reflected the currency money printing and debasement since 1971 by going up 35x. Silver is only up 10x since then....The next up-leg in the metals has most likely started already and we could see $1,350 in gold and well over $20 silver in a relatively short period of time. I would not be surprised to see all-time highs in 2017. But investors who understand gold and silver don’t buy for the purpose of investment gains. No, at a time when the risks in the world financial system are greater than any time in history, precious metals are bought for wealth preservation or insurance purposes.”

Dissolving Musical Chairs -HussmanFunds
"On the first day of March 2017, the combined market capitalization of U.S. non-financial and financial stocks reached $34 trillion. Those trillions of dollars in paper wealth filter down to the investment statements of millions of investors, reflected in quotes on computer screens and blotches of ink on paper. Over the completion of the current market cycle, we estimate that roughly half of U.S. equity market capitalization - $17 trillion in paper wealth - will simply vanish. Nobody will 'get' that wealth. It will simply disappear, like a game of musical chairs where players think they've won by finding chairs as the music stops, and suddenly feel them dissolving as if they had never existed in the first place....Overall, I view valuations as obscene, measures of overextended prices and sentiment as dangerous, and market internals as negative, but short-term narratives about taxes, health care and so forth are wild cards with regard to day-to-day market behavior."

The Death Spiral of Sears, and Amazon’s Ascent -PontificationBlog
"My parents loved Sears, the company whose mail-order catalogs - offering everything from kit Victorian homes to electrified health belts - were wish books for seven generations of Americans. Now that its bankruptcy seems near, we should consider what brought this once-innovative marketing giant down – and what we can learn from its heir apparent, Amazon, about how business has been changing. Sears in its heyday was a deadly competitor to mom-and-pop stores, who could not match Sears’ prices, quality, or guarantees....Amazon, meanwhile, now plans to hire 100,000 people in the next 18 months. It also plans to employ even more automation, and to deliver more goods via drones....Most surprisingly, Amazon now uses local warehouses and a fleet of swift delivery drivers, while planning stores for books, appliances, groceries and other brick-and-mortar structures. It aims to do better the kinds of things that Sears did best generations ago. Stocks rise and fall, but only the enduring things of value such as love and gold in the long run remain worth our time."

Top Republican Warns: "Government Shut Down Is A Real Possibility, And Wall Street Is Unprepared" -Zero Hedge
"In all the spirited rhetoric over the Republicans' failure to pass Obamacare repeal and confusion over what lies ahead, many pundits and market watchers seem to have forgotten that a far more imminent threat, one due exactly one month from today, is that the US government may shut down. As Axios pointed noted, citing a top Republican, after the GOP failure on healthcare, a government shutdown which looms when the continuing resolution runs out April 28 and coincides with Day 100 of the Trump presidency, is 'more likely than not... Wall Street is not expecting a shutdown and the markets are unprepared.'....However, while we agree with the quoted republican that by and large markets are unprepared, they are starting to realize that a government shut down is becoming an all too real possibility, as the following just released note from BMO's strategists Ian Lyngen and Aaron Kohli reveals."

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Gold last traded at $1,255 an ounce. Silver at $18.10 an ounce.

NEWS SUMMARY: Precious metal prices rose to 1-month highs Monday on safe haven buying and a weak dollar. U.S. stocks worldwide retreated on concerns over the fate of U.S. healthcare and other major policy reform prospects.

This bull market’s final wave: Get ready to move from ‘buy the dip’ to ‘sell the rip’ -Marketwatch
"Vast technical disconnects. Structurally high debt loads. A huge sentiment shift. Valuations bursting well above the mean. Perhaps that’s all a bit wonky, but you don’t need to be a market technician to get the sense Sven Henrich is feeling bearish about things....'From our perspective, these markets remain completely uncorrected in any historic sense since the 2009 lows and, whether one wants to acknowledge this or not, a recession is coming,' he writes. 'Indeed a reversion to any mean, be it technical, price or sentiment or altogether may accelerate the timing of a coming recession.'....But bottom line, Henrich says we're moving from a 'buy the dip' to a 'sell the rip' environment."

Gold Is Back As Dollar’s Reserve Status Questioned -Barrons
"The U.S. dollar has long enjoyed the status as the world’s reserve currency, but the greenback’s esteemed standing is increasingly being challenged as China and Russia show their eagerness to to diversify away from the U.S. dollar. EverBank World Markets’ Mike Meyer wrote....'The latest sign of this cooperation happened March 16, when the Central Bank of Russia opened its first overseas office in Beijing. The local news called this 'a small step forward in forging a Beijing-Moscow alliance to bypass the U.S. dollar in the global monetary system.'....Macquarie Research, which is a gold bull, says that instead of obsessing with the U.S. monetary policy, investors also need to paying closer attention to fiscal policy. The broker offers three interesting scenarios for the gold price: Firstly, if the world economy can ride a wave of reflation, then industrial commodities and cyclical equities can benefit at the expense of gold and bonds. But Macquarie places only a 20% probability on this scenario. However, if the global economy endures stagflation, which is a combination of slow growth and higher inflation, then gold and real estate will benefit at the expense of equities. Macquarie sees a 30% probability for this scenario. Macquarie most favored scenario, with a 50% likelihood, is the global economy returns to disinflation (a drop in the rate of inflation), in which gold will be the biggest beneficiary."

As we cover in our 2017 Gold Report: Early Edition and 2017 Silver Report: The Infrastructure Metal both gold and silver are a winning addition to your portfolio in 2017 - regardless of which economic scenario plays out. Gold is the most trustworthy, safe-haven asset on earth and silver is a very undervalued infrastructure metal. Don't wait another day to add gold and silver wealth insurance to your portfolio for peace of mind.

Massive gold coin worth millions stolen from German museum -CNBC
"Berlin police say thieves broke into the German capital's Bode Museum and made off with a massive 100-kilogram (221-pound) gold coin worth millions. The three-centimeter (1.18-inch) thick coin, with a diameter of 53 centimeters (20.9 inches), has a face value of $1 million. By weight alone, however, it would be worth almost $4.5 million at market prices. The museum says the coin is in the Guinness Book of Records for its purity of 999.99/1000 gold. It has a portrait of Queen Elizabeth II on one side and maple leaves on the other."

Dollar skids to four-month low as Trump trade deflates -Reuters
"The dollar fell to its lowest since November against a basket of currencies on Monday as investors lost confidence in prospects for a U.S. fiscal spending boost under President Donald Trump after his failure to pass a major healthcare reform bill. Trump's inability to deliver on his campaign pledge to overhaul the nation's healthcare system marked a big setback for a Republican president whose own party controls Congress, and raised doubts over whether he will be able to see through tax reforms and a proposed spike in spending....'The assumption was that if you can't get healthcare done that some of the other things on his agenda, mainly the tax reform, would be a harder sell,' said John Doyle, director of markets at Tempus Inc in Washington."

Americans Once Known for Their Optimism Are Losing Hope -MauldinEconomics
"Angst isn't a temporary, individual thing anymore. Now we all feel it together - or at least most of us do - and it’s not at all temporary....A huge swath of the country was experiencing a yawning disconnect between the reality of their daily lives and the supposedly growing economy touted by politicians and media pundits. American culture used to be known for its optimism. Its can-do spirit. That quality hasn't vanished. But it has surely lost some of its luster this century. You can see it fading in the statistics about the number of new business startups, which is now less than the number of businesses closing down. And that trend has been in place for almost a decade. The hope that the situation was temporary probably let people tolerate much worse conditions than they should have. But you can only look on the bright side so long before you get tired of waiting."

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Gold last traded at $1,248 an ounce. Silver at $17.74 an ounce.

NEWS SUMMARY: Precious metal prices rose further Friday amid political uncertainty and a weaker dollar. U.S. stocks traded mixed on investor angst ahead of a key Congressional healthcare vote.

Gold set for 2nd weekly gain as dollar hampered by healthcare vote -Reuters
"Gold was on track for a second weekly gain on Friday as concern about the ability of U.S. President Donald Trump to push legislation through Congress held the dollar near seven-week lows, making bullion cheaper for holders of other currencies....The metal has risen 1.6 percent this week and on Thursday touched $1,253.12, its highest since Feb. 28. Gold, seen as a safe haven asset, has benefited from falls in the dollar, U.S. bond yields and stocks this week as Trump's difficulty in passing healthcare reform has undermined faith that he can deliver on promises of tax cuts and investment. Trump has set up a showdown with lawmakers by demanding support for the healthcare bill in a vote on Friday. 'This is a key event not just for gold but for all risk assets,' said Robin Bhar at Societe Generale. 'We should see some safe haven flows into gold if he can't get it passed because it means all his other programs have a low probability of succeeding,' he said."

The Deep State's Dominant Narratives And Authority Are Crumbling -Zero Hedge
"The Deep State is fundamentally the public-private centralized nodes that collect, archive and curate dominant narratives and their supporting evidence, and disseminate these narratives (and their implicit teleologies) to the public via the media and to the state agencies via formal and informal inter-departmental communication channels....This is why the Deep State is fracturing: its narratives no longer align with the evidence....Narratives create an instant context that 'makes sense' of various data points and events. Narratives distill causal factors into an explanatory story with an implicit teleology - because of this and that, the future will be thus and so....Once the legitimacy of the expertise and authority is questioned, control of the narrative is imperiled....This is why the Deep State is in turmoil - its narratives no longer make sense, or are in direct conflict with other nodes' narratives or have been delegitimized by widening gaps between 'definitive' claims and actual evidence."

The Washington bureaucracy has become part of the Deep State, the 'Machine' that Craig R. Smith and Lowell Ponte discuss in their latest book Money, Morality & The Machine: Smith’s Law in an Unethical, Over-Governed Age. The outcome of President Trump’s battle with the bureaucracy could determine whether America’s Constitution and economy survive. It is literally a battle to the death, liberty versus the government our Framers tried so hard to control.

Get ready for the investor stampede back into gold: Commerzbank -Marketwatch
"The investor love affair with gold is just about to get a reboot. That's according to Commerzbank analysts, who cited the precious metal's revisit to the key $1,250-per-ounce level as one reason for renewed interest. Gold tapped intraday highs above that level on Wednesday and Thursday, but hasn’t managed to settle above $1,250-an-ounce - based on the most-active futures contracts - since March 1, according to FactSet....'Although this psychologically important threshold appears to be posing something of a challenge in the short term, the chances of the price rising above it are good,' said a team of analysts led by Carsten Fritsch, in a note to clients Thursday....If that [health care] vote stumbles for the administration, some investors worry that could run into trouble on goals closely linked to economic growth, which has been fueling an appetite for perceived riskier assets such as stocks."

Why the Fed paid banks not to lend -Marketwatch
"If the Federal Reserve has made a decision as to when and how it plans to pare its $4.5 trillion balance sheet, Chairwoman Janet Yellen gave no hint of it at her press conference last week....The bloated balance sheet is a problem of the Fed's own making: a result of a decision in October 2008 to pay banks interest on reserves (IOR), or the deposits they hold at the Fed. With the financial system teetering, the stock market in free fall and the economy in a deep recession, the Fed made an informed, albeit ill-conceived, decision to pay banks not to lend....So when will the Fed stop rolling over maturing securities in its portfolio? The Fed has no plans to shrink its balance sheet 'until normalization of the level of the federal funds rate is well under way,' according to the Dec. 14 meeting statement....As to when the Fed should embark on this effort, given the multitude of geopolitical and financial developments that intervene to throw the Fed off course, there’s probably no time like the present."

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Gold last traded at $1,247 an ounce. Silver at $17.59 an ounce.

NEWS SUMMARY: Precious metal prices traded mixed Wednesday on a flat dollar ahead of tonight's health reform vote. U.S. stocks traded modestly higher as investors remained positive the new health-care bill would be delayed or result in passage.

The Single Biggest Long-Term Catalyst For Gold? Peak Production -ETFDailyNews
"What happens when the unstoppable force of robust global demand for gold meets the immovable object of a small, finite, rare and dwindling supply of physical gold? We have written about 'peak gold' and the ramifications of the underappreciated peak gold phenomenon for the gold market since 2008. The risk of falling gold production and a consequent reduction in supply are slowly percolating into the mainstream and analysts are asking whether 2015 or 2016 marked the year of peak gold production....From the Daily Reckoning: 'The most common argument for gold is fairly well-known. Trump’s massive new spending proposals will goose inflation, meaning a higher gold price. But while most investors focus on the potential for increasing demand, few consider if supplies will be able to meet that demand. And if supplies can’t keep up with demand, that should lead to much higher gold prices....By all indications, mine supply contracted in the fourth quarter of 2016 as well. That means 2016 was the first year of a fall in mine production since 2008.'"

What's next for the Dollar, Gold & Stocks? -MerkInvestments
"Two rate hikes since last year have weakened the dollar....Where do stocks go from here?.... I see many parallels to 1987, including what I would call an outsized reliance on market liquidity ensuring that this bull market continues its rise without being disrupted by a flash crash or some a type of crash awaiting to get a label. Mind you, it’s extraordinarily difficult to get the timing right on a crash; that doesn’t mean one shouldn’t prepare for the risk....After the election, we believe the price of gold came down as the market priced in higher real interest rates in anticipation of lower regulations. We indicated that this euphoria will cede to realism, meaning that regulations might not be cut quite as much. We also suggested that any fiscal stimulus on the backdrop of low employment may be inflationary. That is, expectations of higher real rates might be replaced with expectations of higher nominal rates; net, bonds might not change all that much, but the price of gold may well rise in that environment....The Dollar...Our take is: if you introduce barriers to trade, we believe currencies of countries with current account deficits tend to suffer. The greenback qualifies, and the recent decline coincides with more protectionist talk coming from the Trump administration."

Fed research signals inflation overshoot possible, but is it tolerable? -Reuters
"The Federal Reserve has begun preparing the public and markets for higher inflation, but has left unanswered the question of how high inflation might go and for how long. A new research paper from economists at the Fed's Washington-based Board of Governors suggests that policymakers should allow prices to rise by around 3.0 percent annually during periods of high economic growth, so that the long-run average annual target of 2.0 percent inflation is achieved after several years of lower inflation....Fed Chair Janet Yellen last week, and a group of regional reserve bank presidents this week, signaled the Fed would not try to halt inflation at 2.0 percent, but only shift gears if above-target prices rises appear 'persistent.' 'Two percent is not a ceiling,' Chicago Federal Reserve bank president Charles Evans said in New York this week."

Like the government, the Federal Reserve could mess up a one-piece puzzle. We expect the Fed will remain behind the curve on inflation. But we want our readers to stay ahead of the curve, so we just released our latest FREE special report on the subject, THE INFLATION SOLUTION.

Vote looming, Trump struggles to win Obamacare repeal -Yahoo/Reuters
"U.S. President Donald Trump on Thursday was set to make a final push on Thursday to secure the votes to begin dismantling Obamacare in the House of Representatives, with signs that enough Republicans might defect to jeopardize one of his top legislative priorities. Trump has mounted an intensive campaign to garner support for the initiative and the effort is seen by financial markets as a crucial test of his ability to move his legislative agenda, including planned tax cuts, through Congress....Trump and Ryan need strong support from their side of the aisle and can only afford to lose 21 Republican votes....The House vote had been expected by about 7 p.m. (2300 GMT)."

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Gold last traded at $1,249 an ounce. Silver at $17.57 an ounce.

NEWS SUMMARY: Precious metal prices rose Wednesday amid geopolitical uncertainty and dollar weakness. U.S. stocks traded mixed as investors digested upbeat tech news and downbeat retail news on Sears bankruptcy fears.

If You Like Gold, It's Time To Buy It -Forbes
"As I said to open the week last week, markets were pricing in a world without disruptions. But disruptions looked likely. Still, the week came and went and stocks were little changed, but yields came in lower (despite the Fed's third rate hike) and the dollar came in lower (again, despite the Fed's third rate hike)....Gold jumped on the Fed rate hike last week, and Yellen's more hawkish tone on inflation. If she's right, gold goes higher. If she's wrong, and the Fed has made a big mistake by hiking three times in a world that still can't sustain much growth or inflation, gold probably goes higher on the Fed's self-inflicted wounds to the economy."

Did you catch that? Gold prices are set to rise, no matter what the Fed does. So why wait? Smart money is buying now, before gold's next big leg up. Stay ahead of the 2017 financial curve by reading The 2017 Gold Report: Early Edition and The 2017 Silver Report: The Infrastructure Metal. Call Swiss America now at 800-289-2646 to receive these new Research Reports ... Free Of Charge!

Dollar Bulls Are Throwing in the Towel as Trump Wagers Evaporate -Bloomberg
"Four months after the dawn of the Trump trade, currency investors worldwide are capitulating. That’s the signal from Bank of America Corp.’s flow data, which blends positioning and sentiment surveys conducted with its hedge fund and real-money clients, and publicly available futures data. The bank’s takeaway is that bullish dollar positions put on after the election have completely disappeared. 'The dollar positions accumulated in the buildup and immediate aftermath of the U.S. election look to have been fully unwound,' Bank of America strategists led by Myria Kyriacou wrote in a research note....That also means the U.S. currency, which has almost retraced the 7 percent rally since Donald Trump’s election victory, will be stuck in a range barring any concrete fiscal policy, the kind of game-changing announcement that investors have been waiting for since day one of his presidency."

Don’t look now, but the market’s big money is eyeing the exit -Marketwatch
"Institutional investors with a collective half-trillion dollars under management now say that global stocks are the most overvalued since 2000. Making matters even worse is that by their own admission they are massively overexposed to stocks in their portfolios - suggesting the risk of a crush at the exits if this thing turns sour....A net 34% of money managers reported that they now considered global equity markets overvalued....This is by far the highest figure seen in the survey in the past 17 years, says Merrill Lynch. And the region they consider the most overvalued? The U.S....The explanation for this apparent cognitive dissonance - some might say schizophrenia - may lie in career risk. So long as stock markets continue to go up, money managers dare not miss out."

Trump optimism is showing signs of cracking -CNBC
"For the first time since the election, markets are doubting they will get the pro-growth policies of tax reform and stimulus promised by President Donald Trump and the Republican Congress. The repeal of Obamacare appears to have hit some snags and the GOP brought out Trump earlier Tuesday to serve as pitchman to House Republicans who may have been wavering ahead of Thursday's vote. Whether he won votes or not is unclear, but markets certainly took the lack of clear majority support as a negative....The stock market sold off sharply with many market leaders of the Trump trade lagging. The Dow was down as much as 200 points, but the underpinnings of the market were even weaker. The Russell 2000 small-cap index, for instance, fell 2 percent, and the Dow transports lost 1.7 percent. Financial stocks were the worst performers, down 2.6 percent."

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Gold last traded at $1,246 an ounce. Silver at $17.58 an ounce.

NEWS SUMMARY: Precious metal prices pushed higher Tuesday on safe haven buying and a sharply weaker dollar. U.S. stocks convulsed for a fourth day as financial and industrial stocks led the way lower.

Gold climbs near a 3-week high as dollar drops -Marketwatch
"Gold prices headed higher Tuesday, as the U.S. dollar declined, especially against the euro, as traders eyed the presidential race in France and the U.K. prepared its exit from the European Union. The ICE U.S. Dollar Index, which measures the greenback’s strength against a basket of six currencies, dropped 0.7% to 99.737 - trading at its lowest levels since early February....'The political uncertainties over in Europe around French elections and Brexit are going to provide a lot of tailwinds for the gold rally,' said Naeem Aslam, chief market analyst at Think Markets. Over in the U.S., gold may also soon be getting a boost from political risk tied to the vote, likely Thursday, on health care reform, said Colin Cieszynski, chief market strategist at CMC Markets, told MarketWatch."

Don’t look now, but inflation may be about to surge -CNBC
"All signs point to rising inflation, but investors aren't properly pricing that into their decision making, according to one portfolio manager. Inflation expectations are relatively low, economic data show, 'which is just silly,' Charles Bobrinskoy, head of investment group at Chicago-based Ariel Investments said, Monday on CNBC's 'Trading Nation.'....Looking forward, Bobrinskoy points to some key factors that could push inflation higher, including a strengthening economy and the Federal Reserve raising interest rates. What's more is 'there's a lot of cash, a lot of lending going on around the world … labor costs are going up,' and thus inflation is ticking higher....Rising inflation translates to a weaker currency. Said Bobrinskoy: 'We have the first president who's ever tried to talk down the value of the U.S. dollar; that's never happened before. And the dollar going down is what inflation is all about.'"

The Road Back To Making America Great Again Has A Major Pitfall. Learn How To Avoid It. Read THE INFLATION SOLUTION, Swiss America's newest special report. "President Donald Trump is re-igniting America's mighty rocket engine of free market capitalism. His urgent goal is to get people working and the economy growing again, even if this includes increasing government spending. But solving such problems with a flood of mostly-free market money will likely trigger another problem: inflation. President Trump faces millions of Progressives fighting to keep the system of economics and dependence on government that they have devised to politically dominate the United States." What will this political battle do to your wealth and the value of the U.S. dollar? Find out HERE

A New California Gold Rush? -PontificationBlog
"California’s 2017 record rains nearly washed away the state’s tallest dam, threatening 200,000 people downstream near this place that 163 years ago was named Oroville. 'Oro' is Spanish for gold. Prospectors rushed here from all over the world following news of the 1849 huge gold strike in northern California, soon to become America’s Golden State. This year’s heavy rains ended the state’s long drought, and they also opened millions of veins of gold that the ’49ers never found....What seems surprising is that so few have grabbed this opportunity. The California Gold Rush symbolized the spirit and energy that caused exceptional people to move to America, and then to move west to pan for gold and settle the frontier. Are we losing that adventurous, hopeful spirit?"Full story

Bank Bloodbath Batters Stocks; Bonds, Bullion Bounce As Trumpcare Vote Doubts Rise -Zero Hedge
"VIX is jumping as stocks sink...And Bank stocks are collapsing...With the Financials ETF breaking below a key technical level...Bank stocks have now gone nowhere since Dec 8th. Lots of chatter about selling due to doubts on TrumpCare passing on Thursday - which will delay the tax reform foundation that the market is settled on (and any banking system reform)."

The Unifying American Story -Brooks/New York Times
"One of the things we’ve lost in this country is our story. It is the narrative that unites us around a common multigenerational project, that gives an overarching sense of meaning and purpose to our history. For most of the past 400 years, Americans did have an overarching story. It was the Exodus story. The Puritans came to this continent and felt they were escaping the bondage of their Egypt and building a new Jerusalem....The Puritans could survive hardship because they knew what kind of cosmic drama they were involved in....As Philip Gorski writes in his new book, 'American Covenant,' which is essential reading for this moment, the Puritans understood they were part of one covenant and had ferocious debates about what that covenant meant....We have a lot of crises in this country, but maybe the foundational one is the Telos Crisis, a crisis of purpose. Many people don’t know what this country is here for, and what we are here for. If you don’t know what your goal is, then every setback sends you into cynicism and selfishness."

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Gold last traded at $1,234 an ounce. Silver at $17.43 an ounce.

NEWS SUMMARY: Precious metal prices touched 2-week highs Monday on G20 comments and a weaker dollar. U.S. stocks traded mixed amid political uncertainty and comments by Fed speakers regarding inflation concerns.

Gold hits two-week high as dollar falls after G20 trade message -Reuters
"Gold prices scaled a two-week peak on Monday as the dollar slumped to a six-week low after a G20 weekend summit that was dominated by the U.S. administration's protectionist stance on global trade. The precious metal has been rising since last Wednesday, when the dollar dropped after the U.S. Federal Reserve raised interest rates but stopped short of predicting a sharper acceleration in monetary tightening over the next two years....Gold has rebounded more than $35 from the low hit before the Fed policy announcement last Wednesday, while the dollar has fallen 1.7 percent from its high of 101.71 the same day."

The Only Way to Stop Indians Buying Gold? Take Away Their Cash -Bloomberg
"It seems the only way to stop Indians from buying more gold is to take their money away. Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s government spent 16 months trying to persuade Indians to deposit their jewelry in the bank to earn interest, in an effort to curb soaring imports of the precious metal. But the program has only lured a tiny fraction of the $900 billion of gold that families and temples are estimated to have stashed away. On the other hand, Modi’s controversial decision to withdraw all high-value banknotes did the job instead. Coupled with a higher import tax, the abolition of 86 percent of the nation’s banknotes in an anti-corruption drive helped push gold imports down 39 percent last year to 558 metric tons....'We Indians don’t like to sell our gold,' said Samsher Aliyar, a 29-year-old Mumbai cab driver. 'My grandmother’s generation and even my parents aren’t going to deposit their gold with the banks as they consider it a part of their children’s inheritance.'....The damping effect of Modi’s banknote withdrawal may not hold back the tide of gold imports for long and the banks will need to improve the deposit system if it’s to have a meaningful effect."

The Secret War on Cash explains how India's decree imposing currency controls plunged the nation's 1.3 billion people into chaos and why India's “demonetisation” was a large-scale test of what globalist Progressives call the “cashless society” - their ideological vision of the human future. Get the full story in Swiss America's FREE 12-page 2017 White Paper: The Secret War on Cash.

Donald Trump Owns the Fed, the Dollar & Gold -Rickards/Daily Reckoning
"Donald Trump has the opportunity to appoint a higher percentage of the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve system at one time than any President since Woodrow Wilson....In other words, Donald Trump will be able to shape the Fed’s majority. His influence goes further than that, however. Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen’s term is up in next January - just 9 months from now. Whoever President Trump appoints to replace her - the fourth appointment he’ll have - will be subject to Senate confirmation. Because that process takes time, that means the President will have to name Yellen’s successor around November or December....And if all goes accordingly, President Trump will have control of six or even seven seats on the Federal Reserve Board by the summer of 2018. Trump will own the Fed. Meaning, whatever the president wants monetary policy to be, he’ll get....Right now, in March 2017, my expectation is that Kevin Warsh will be the next chairman. He’ll have a big voice in filling the other vacant seats. These will be hard money, strong dollar people."

The Fed's Global Dollar Problem -Bloomberg
"The Federal Reserve might be doing the right thing for the U.S. economy by moving to bring interest rates back up to normal. But for foreign companies and governments that have borrowed trillions of U.S. dollars, the adjustment could be painful....As of September, non-bank companies and governments outside the U.S. had some $10.5 trillion in dollar-denominated debt outstanding, according to the Bank for International Settlements. That's more than triple the level of September 2004, the last time the Fed was about this far into a cycle of rate increases....An increase of one percentage point, for example, would take $500 billion off the value of the bonds included in the Bank of America Merrill Lynch U.S. Dollar Global Corporate and High Yield Index....In any case, the repercussions will likely come back and hit markets and growth in the U.S. as well. Which means that the Fed will have to keep all that dollar debt in mind as it decides what to do."

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Gold last traded at $1,230 an ounce. Silver at $17.41 an ounce.

NEWS SUMMARY: Precious metal prices rose Friday on safe haven buying and a flat dollar. U.S. stocks traded in narrow range as futures and option contracts faced quadruple "witching" expirations today.

Gold heads for first weekly gain in three as Fed hurts dollar -Reuters
"Gold rose on Friday and was on course for its first weekly gain since February as this week's cautious message on interest rates from the U.S. Federal Reserve left the dollar at five-week lows, making bullion cheaper for holders of other currencies. The Fed raised U.S. rates on Wednesday, as expected, but its earlier forecast of three rate increases this year remained unchanged, disappointing some investors who had hoped for hints of a possible fourth hike in 2017....'There is momentum as people start to look again how far they can push gold higher,' said Georgette Boele at ABN AMRO. The dollar had hit a ceiling and would fall further in the near term, she said."

Stay ahead of the 2017 financial curve by reading our latest special reports: America's First 100 Days, The 2017 Gold Report: Early Edition and The 2017 Silver Report: The Infrastructure Metal. Call Swiss America now at 800-289-2646 and we will send you ALL THREE of these important Research Reports ... Free Of Charge!

President Trump's Trim Budget -Fox Business- Risk & Reward
Can President Trump really cut $18-19 trillion in debt in just eight years? Craig Smith, chairman of Swiss America, says that might be a bold estimate but believes just 30-40% of that would allow for incredible cash flow for the government. Watch now to see what Smith feels this rearrangement of priorities could mean for government and business spending as well as for the average American. Watch

Trump Budget Likely to See Major Rewrite in Congress -Fox News
"Republicans were quick to lodge objections on Thursday to President Donald Trump’s budget plans, many of which trim away smaller programs that help the sort of local communities he vowed to rejuvenate during the campaign. The response suggests Mr. Trump’s first blueprint for federal spending, like many before his, is likely to undergo a major rewrite by Congress. While Republicans lawmakers embraced the president’s impulses to boost military spending by cutting what some consider wasteful programs, they then began scouring through the fine print for details about school-enrichment, environmental cleanup and other programs. That’s when they immediately began planning to shift the burden of cutbacks elsewhere. Republican leadership, including House Speaker Paul Ryan gave a muted endorsement."

Silver Seen Climbing Faster Than Gold as Yellen Wakens Bulls -Bloomberg
"Investors may be better off with silver rather than gold. The Federal Reserve’s pledge to stick to its dovish outlook on U.S. monetary policy has fueled a rally in precious metals and silver usually beats its more valuable peer in a rising market....UBS Group AG said the gradual pace of tightening means negative rates will deepen, the dollar weaken and gold rise. 'Silver is substantially undervalued compared to gold and has plenty of space to appreciate both in dollar terms and relative to gold,' Gregor Gregersen, founder of Singapore-based Silver Bullion Pte, said in a email. 'Currently the move into silver is a trickle, but it might very well become a flood once the mood of the market at large shifts.'....The metal, sometimes called 'poor man’s gold,' has risen more than 9 percent this year, while gold’s up less than 7 percent."

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Gold last traded at $1,227 an ounce. Silver at $17.33 an ounce.

NEWS SUMMARY: Precious metal prices rose Thursday on bargain-hunting following a dovish Fed statement Wednesday. U.S. stocks traded lower led by heath care stocks, which declined amid new government spending cut proposals.

Why the Fed interest-rate hike fueled a rally in gold -Marketwatch
"Gold rallied after the Federal Reserve announced an increase to its key short-term interest rate on Wednesday, but the metal's price reaction isn't quite the head scratcher that it seems to be. 'It is a case of ‘sell the rumor (of a rate hike), buy the fact’,' said Ross Norman chief executive officer at Sharps Pixley, told MarketWatch. 'We have consistently seen double-digit percentage increases in gold prices post a rate hike perversely,' he said. That’s 'counter-intuitive because higher rates would ordinarily be seen as gold negative,' as the metal would be less attractive compared with interest-bearing assets....'While the language around the economy and inflation was positive, the outlook towards economic acceleration and GDP growth was not boosted,' he said....'Inflationary pressures are rising, and the Fed will not dare get ahead of inflation in its gradual move toward higher rates,' he said. 'This guarantees negative real rates for perhaps years to come, and similarly guarantees an extremely bullish environment for gold for some time.'"

Trillions in Debt and We're Just Scratching the Surface -FEE.org
"As the federal debt has gone from astounding to unbelievable to incomprehensible, a new problem has emerged: The US government is actually running out of places to borrow....Since 2000, the federal debt has grown at an average annual rate of 8.2%, doubling from $10 trillion to $20 trillion in the past eight years alone. Who loaned the government this money? Four groups: foreigners, Americans, the Federal Reserve, and government trust funds. But over the past decade, three of these groups have cut back significantly on their lending. Foreign investors have slowed the growth in their lending from over 20% per year in the early 2000s to less than 3% per year today. Excluding the Great Recession years, American investors have been cutting back on how much they lend the federal government by an average of 2% each year."

Beware the Debt Ceiling -Bloomberg
"Euphoria has been pervasive in the stock market since the election. But investors seem to be overlooking the risk of a U.S. government default resulting from a failure by Congress to raise the debt ceiling. The possibility is greater than anyone seems to realize, even with a supposedly unified government....In order to raise or suspend the debt ceiling (which will technically be reinstated on March 16), 218 votes are needed in the House of Representatives. The Treasury’s cash balance will need to last until this happens, or the U.S. will default. The opening cash balance this month was $189 billion, and Treasury is burning an average of $2 billion per day – with the ability to issue new debt. Net redemptions of existing debt not held by the government are running north of $100 billion a month. Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin has acknowledged the coming deadline, encouraging Congress last week to raise the limit immediately. Reaching 218 votes in favor of raising or suspending the debt ceiling might be harder than in any previous fiscal showdown."

What a Fed rate hike means for you (get ready to pay more) -USA Today
"The Federal Reserve decision Wednesday to lift its benchmark short-term interest rate by a quarter percentage point is likely to have a domino effect across the economy as it gradually pushes up rates for everything from mortgages and credit card rates to small business loans. Consumers with credit card debt, adjustable-rate mortgages and home equity lines of credit are the most likely to be affected by a rate hike, says Greg McBride, chief analyst at Bankrate.com. He says it’s the cumulative effect that’s important, especially since the Fed already raised rates in December 2015 and December 2016. 'These interest rate hikes could add up to hundreds of dollars per month in extra fees for credit card, adjustable-rate mortgage and HELOC borrowers,' McBride says....Don’t expect a fast or an equivalent rise in your savings accounts or CD rate though. 'Still not a whole lot of improvement for savers to count on the third time around,' McBride says."

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Gold last traded at $1,219 an ounce. Silver at $17.35 an ounce.

NEWS SUMMARY: Precious metal prices rose sharply Wednesday following the Fed .25% rate hike. U.S. stocks were also lifted by the Fed action as they reiterated the promise of two additional hikes in 2017.

Gold rises after Fed announcement - CNBC
"Gold prices rose on Wednesday after the Fed announcement. Spot gold jumped 1.18 percent to $1,212.50 per ounce, while U.S. gold futures for April delivery rose $1.90 to settle at $1,200.70. Gold futures hit $1,214.90 earlier, the highest level since March 8 when futures hit $1,218.50. For the second time in three months, the Federal Reserve increased its benchmark interest rate a quarter point amid rising confidence that the economy is poised for more robust growth. In December the Fed forecast three rate rises this year....Spot silver was up 1.75 percent at $17.14."

Atlanta Fed Slashes Q1 GDP Forecast To Just 0.9% Hours Before Fed Rate Hike -Zero Hedge
"While it may not be the very definition of irony, we do find the fact that the Atlanta Fed has just cut its Q1 GDP forecast from 1.2% to 0.9%, a number which if confirmed would be the lowest quarterly print in year, just two hours before the Fed's rate hike quite humorous. As a reminder, the number was as high as 3.4% one and a half months ago. From the Atlanta Fed: 'Latest forecast: 0.9 percent - March 15, 2017 - The GDPNow model forecast for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the first quarter of 2017 is 0.9 percent on March 15, down from 1.2 percent on March 8. The GDP growth forecast declined 0.3 percentage points on Friday when the February estimate of the model's latent dynamic factor used to forecast yet-to-be released GDP source data declined after the employment situation release from the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS).'....And since the Fed is hardly raising rates in light of the ongoing slowdown in the economy, one can only assume that the reason for the Fed's hike is to put the breaks on runaway inflation and/or various asset bubbles."

Justice Department charging Russian spies and criminal hackers in Yahoo intrusion -Washington Post
"The Justice Department is set to announce Wednesday the indictments of two Russian spies and two criminal hackers in connection with the heist of 500 million Yahoo user accounts in 2014, marking the first U.S. criminal cyber charges ever against Russian government officials. The indictments target two members of the Russian intelligence agency FSB, and two hackers hired by the Russians. The charges include hacking, wire fraud, trade secret theft and economic espionage, according to officials, who spoke on the condition of anonymity because the charges have not yet been announced. The indictments are part of the largest hacking case brought by the United States."

Garbage In, Garbage Out at the Federal Reserve -FEE.org
"It is the view of Fed Chair Janet Yellen that signs of overheating in the broader economy are 'scarce.' The indispensable Grant’s Interest Rate Observer isn’t so sure and devoted its front page and then some of its March 10 issue to inflation and how it’s measured. After all, the price level is the North Star of central bank policy. Grant’s sent its Harrison Waddill to tag along with a 'government inflation scout' who was sampling prices for the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) at a New York supermarket....Our man from the BLS related a story about a store no longer carrying the prepared salad he was to price, so he made the executive decision to substitute a fruit salad, and finally 'found prepared prices of fruit.' Unfortunately for our part time price picker, his substitution didn’t pass muster with the BLS brass, 'not enough nuts or croutons,' they said. He was given 'a list of different items (not salad) to price instead.'....What we know for sure, is what the Fed does is mislead entrepreneurs with ill-conceived monetary monkey business. Sadly, while they rest on their PhDs, they don’t know what they don’t know."

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Gold last traded at $1,202 an ounce. Silver at $16.92 an ounce.

NEWS SUMMARY: Precious metal prices remained steady Tuesday, despite a stronger dollar and Fed worries. U.S. stocks traded lower amid falling oil prices and Fed uncertainty.

US Producer Prices Spike At Fastest Rate In 5 Years -Zero Hedge
"With tomorrow's rate hike baked in the cake, today's hotter than expected PPI print for February provides Yellen more cover (as economic growth forecasts slump). PPI Final Demand surged 2.2% YoY (more than expected) driven by a 4.0% YoY jump in final demand goods. This is the highest inflationary print since March 2012. Final Demand Energy prices surged 19.8% YoY. In February, another major factor in the increase in prices for final demand services was the index for traveler accommodation services, which rose 4.3 percent....Prices for wireless telecommunication services and for securities brokerage, dealing, and investment advice also decreased. 70% of the increase in prices for final demand goods is attributable to the index for electric power."

Any way you slice it, even official government stats can no longer mask rising inflation - both on a wholesale and retail level. Inflation may seem harmless, but some economists and futurists are now forecasting prices to spike in the months ahead. Now is the time to prepare your portfolio with a few simple steps which are covered in our special report, The Inflation Solution

Jobs Go Boom! Will Washington Gridlock Succeed In Stopping Trump? -Amato/Smith - YouTube
"February's job growth and wages increase numbers were impressive. Manufacturing job growth tripled that of government jobs! But will President Trump's opponents succeed in creating the political gridlock that brings economy to halt? Craig Smith, CEO of Swiss-America Trading Corp. joins Rick to weigh in". Watch video

The Market's Response to the Fed Will Be Telling -Alhambra Partners
"Our market based indicators agree somewhat but nominal and real interest rates are still below their mid-December peaks so I don’t think a lot has changed. More interesting will be how the markets react after the Fed does what everyone expects it to do. I suspect we will soon be hearing - again - about the conundrum of long term interest rates. The economic data in any case hasn’t really been all that strong. Yes, the first derivative does seem to have turned higher but the incline is still pretty gradual....President Trump and his supporters have been quick to take credit - I'm pretty sure Joe Kernen fainted on CNBC when the number was announced Friday - but there may be less there than meets the eye....The dollar still appears to be in a topping process, not what one would expect if the US economy is about to accelerate....Gold did seem to confirm the better growth prospects reflected in bond markets though...If the dollar continues to fall, gold will find support soon enough."

India gold recycling plan fails to tempt households -Reuters
"India's ambitious plan to recycle thousands of tons of gold lying idle in temples and households looks to have foundered on concerns over high costs and slight returns, in a blow to government hopes of cutting imports of the metal. After 16 months, temples and households have turned over just seven tons of gold out of the 24,000 tons believed to be in private hands, two industry sources and a government official said, with almost all the gold coming from temples....The plan was for holders of idle gold to lodge it with banks in return for interest and cash at redemption. The government would melt the gold and auction or rent it to jewelers, reducing the need for imports....The struggling scheme was launched with much fanfare by Prime Minister Narendra Modi in November 2015, with India seeking ways to stem the spending of billions of dollars on a non-essential commodity that accounted for 27 percent of its trade deficit in the year to March, 2016."

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Gold last traded at $1,203 an ounce. Silver at $16.97 an ounce.

NEWS SUMMARY: Precious metal prices stabilized Monday on a flat dollar ahead of expected Fed rate hike this week. U.S. stocks traded mixed as investors mulled over volatility potential amid multiple rate hikes this year.

Bracing for a Trump vs. Fed Money Crisis - Smith-Ponte/PontificationBlog
"The biggest surprise of President Donald J. Trump’s Administration might not involve congressional lawmakers, the Deep State, mobs of protestors, or foreign policy. One part of the national policy apparatus still under liberal control is the Federal Reserve. Its Chair Janet Yellen, a grandmotherly-appearing Keynesian academic from the University of California Berkeley, will hold her position until January 2018, an election year, and says she likely will remain a member of the Fed’s Board of Governors until 2024....Yellen will also try to create deliberate inflation. And President Trump’s policies - tax breaks that will bring trillions back to the U.S., and a trillion in infrastructure spending to put Americans back to work and lift the economy that Mr. Obama left flat for 8 years, and so forth – will flood the U.S. with money. Both President Trump and Fed Chair Yellen will inevitably generate some inflation - perhaps uncontrollable - and reduce the purchasing power of our paper fiat dollars. This could harm the Trump economy." Full story...

Ted Koppel Exposes Financial Cyberattack Risks -YouTube
Former ABC Nightline host Ted Koppel reveals that U.S foreign policy has been influenced by international threats to hack major New York banks. So, if the CIA, NSA and other Intelligence Agencies cannot stop cyberattacks, who CAN protect your bank account? Your stock account? Your 401(k) account? Get educated! Learn the secret to protecting your assets with Swiss America's 2017 free newsletter, Volatility's Last Stand.

The U.S. Troop Presence in Syria Is at Its Highest Ever. But How Long Are They on the Ground for and Why? -TIME
"The Trump Administration is intensifying America’s involvement in the ground war in Syria, having announced on March 9 that it is sending 400 more troops to join the fight against ISIS there. The new deployment of Army Rangers and a U.S. Marine artillery unit raises fresh questions about the scope and timeline of the U.S. mission in Syria, where the number of American troops is now approaching a high of around a thousand (Washington has not disclosed an exact number). The U.S. is also sending another 2,500 troops to a staging base in Kuwait, awaiting possible deployment to Iraq or Syria....Recent comments from U.S. officials suggest that the military is contemplating a deployment in Syria that extends far beyond the defeat of ISIS as a conventional armed force."

Under President Trump The Fed Is Suddenly In A Hurry To Raise Rates -Forbes
"Unemployment, employment, labor force participation rates, and inflation are all relatively unchanged from before the presidential election. The Atlanta Fed’s GDPNow real-time forecast actually has been declining, lowering its forecast of first-quarter economic growth. What data has changed sufficiently to make the Fed so much more bullish than the past several years? The big changes in data have been in sentiment. Consumer confidence and business owner confidence have both risen significantly since President Trump’s election....One possibility is that the Federal Reserve believes both that President Trump and the Republicans in Congress support policies that are better for the economy than President Obama’s were and that they will get their plans implemented....The only other alternative to the idea that the Fed thinks President Trump and the Republicans will implement successful economic policy improvements is that the Fed simply dislikes President Trump and the Republicans and does not want to be as accommodating to them as it was to President Obama."

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Gold last traded at $1,201 an ounce. Silver at $16.92 an ounce.

NEWS SUMMARY: Precious metal prices slipped further Friday on profit-taking amid upbeat jobs data. U.S. stocks traded mostly higher after a better-than-expected U.S. jobs report while investors looked ahead to next week's Fed meeting.

U.S. Jobs, Pay Show Solid Gains in Trump's First Full Month -Bloomberg
"U.S. employers added jobs at an above-average pace for a second month on outsized gains in construction and manufacturing while wage growth picked up, as the labor market continued its steady improvement in the new year. The 235,000 increase followed a 238,000 rise in January that was more than previously estimated, the best back-to-back rise since July, a Labor Department report showed Friday in Washington. The unemployment rate fell to 4.7 percent, and wages grew 2.8 percent from February 2016....The participation rate, which shows the share of working-age people in the labor force, increased to 63 percent, the highest since last March, from 62.9 percent. It has been hovering close to the lowest level in more than three decades. The number of people out of the labor force, a figure repeatedly highlighted by Trump as a sign of economic malaise, fell by 176,000 to 94.2 million."

Three Ways to Value Gold. Three Conclusions. -Wall Street Journal
"Where is the price of gold headed? Well, consider this: One closely followed statistical model concludes that bullion is 46% overvalued, while another says that gold is 35% undervalued. Which is closer to the truth? It’s impossible to say....To see how sharply those views differ, consider three different ways to value gold: as an inflation hedge, as a hedge against political uncertainty and as a way to get portfolio diversification....three economics and finance professors - Scott Baker of Northwestern University, Nick Bloom of Stanford University and Steven Davis of the University of Chicago - created a series of Economic Policy Uncertainty, or EPU, indexes. And sure enough, according to Prof. Harvey, gold shows a modest historical correlation with the global version of the EPU. That modest correlation translates into a bullish forecast for gold currently, since the global EPU index is at an all-time high, while gold is trading 35% below its record high of $1,925 an ounce."

A fourth way to value gold has almost nothing to do with its price. If gold is viewed and valued as the world's first and only trustworthy international currency, then its relative price in fiat currencies becomes unimportant. Swiss America believes every American should have a percentage of their savings in physical gold as wealth insurance - regardless of the price. Discover The Timeless Truth About Gold & Silver - Free Special Report!

Happy Birthday, Bull Market! It May Be Your Last -Fortune
"Wall Street this week celebrated the arrival of a bronze-cast defiant girl staring down its iconic charging bull statue, installed in honor of International Women's Day. But the proverbial bull is also celebrating a milestone of its own: The bull market in U.S. stocks turns eight years old on Thursday, March 9....How long does this bull market have yet to live? No one knows for sure, but because bull markets age in what you might call dog years, if it were a human it would be very, very, very old....Don't count out the current bull market's ability to celebrate its golden birthday on March 9 next year with similarly impressive returns. Writes Stovall in an eloquent research note this week, 'Bull markets don’t die of old age, they die of fright...'"

Gold to jump $200 by end of the year, Bank of America says -CNBC
"Gold may be under pressure in the run-up to the next Federal Reserve rate hike, but prices are expected to rally by around $200 by the end of the year, according to the corporate and investment banking division of Bank of America. In a research note Thursday, analysts at Bank of America Merrill Lynch highlighted its recent dip but said there were reasons for optimism. 'While tighter monetary policy is not bullish, inflation and a range of uncertainties, including European elections and protectionism should support the yellow metal. As such, we see prices at $1,400 (per troy ounce) by year-end'."

The Conflict Within The Deep State Just Broke Into Open Warfare -Zero Hedge
"The battle raging in the Deep State isn't just a bureaucratic battle - it's a war for the soul, identity and direction of the nation. When do the unlimited powers of the Intelligence/Security agencies threaten America's domestic and global national interests? The CIA and its political enablers claim the agency's essentially unlimited powers, partially revealed by Wikileak's Vault 7, pose no threat to America's interests, since they are intended to 'defend' American interests. This is the rationale presented by neocon CIA allies in both political parties: the CIA can't possibly threaten America's interests because the CIA defines America's interests. This is the wormhole down which civil liberties and democracy have drained. It is an extraordinarily defining moment in American history when the director of the FBI publicly declares that there is no such thing as 'absolute privacy' in the U.S."

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Gold last traded at $1,203 an ounce. Silver at $17.04 an ounce.

NEWS SUMMARY: Precious metal prices stabilized Thursday as the dollar declined with oil prices. U.S. stocks were lower in choppy trading ahead of Friday jobs data and upcoming Fed rate meeting.

The Impending Debt Ceiling Could Bring U.S. Economic Growth To A Halt -ETF Daily News
"From Steven Vannelli, CFA: The interplay between debt and income can be a difficult thing to understand. Here is a useful analogy. Imagine a hot air balloon lying on the ground preparing for take-off. The fuel tank, used to heat the air, is the balance sheet in this analogy while the loft of the balloon is the income statement. The pilot begins by firing the burner, causing the balloon to inflate with hot air and slowly stand up. With a little more fuel, the balloon lurches from the ground into the air. It took a good bit of fuel (debt) to get the balloon rising (income)....Unless or until the US can start experiencing GDP growth greater than debt growth, the US appears to be stuck in a hot air balloon economy. With the debt ceiling around the corner, we may shortly test the hypothesis of whether or not the US is on a self-sustaining recovery path."

A Whole New World of Gold Demand Is Opening Up... Muslims -Gold Seek
"Most analysis of gold and silver markets tends to be U.S.-centric. However, the next secular trend in precious metals markets may have less to do with U.S. debt, U.S. politics, the U.S. central bank, and the U.S. dollar and more to do with a gigantic new source of demand. Today, it’s a whole new world when it comes to sources of gold demand....Going forward, the fastest growing source of gold demand could come from the Islamic world....The Accounting and Auditing Organization for Islamic Financial Institutions recently approved a new Shariah Standard on Gold. This new standard is expected to be widely adopted this year by Islamic banks, brokerages, and other financial institutions. It will enable gold to be held as an investment asset within Shariah-compliant accounts."

This new law could unleash the greatest pent-up demand for gold this year, according to a critical new Swiss America Special Report, The Great Convergence of 2017. CLICK ON THIS NEW AMTV VIDEO FOR DETAILS.

The Path to $10,000 Gold -Rickards/Daily Reckoning
"I’m very impressed with the recent gold action because it’s holding its own in the face of an impending rate hike. It’s fallen off a bit, but not dramatically. It tells you there are good fundamentals behind it, independent of the threat of a stronger dollar....So I expect gold to take off in the spring and finish the year very strongly. It could challenge $1,300 or $1,400....Now, as many of my readers know, my long-term forecast is for $10,000 gold. We’re obviously not there now. So how do I arrive at $10,000?....Many people say there’s not enough gold to support the money supply. That’s one of the objections to gold standard. But my answer is that’s nonsense. There’s always enough gold to support the money supply. It’s a question of price. Now, if you back 40% of the $24 trillion of money supply with the amount of official gold, it implies a gold price around $9,000 an ounce. But I predict $10,000."

U.S. Consumer Comfort Just Reached Its Highest Level in a Decade -Bloomberg
"Americans’ confidence continued to mount last week as the Bloomberg Consumer Comfort Index reached the highest point in a decade on more-upbeat assessments about the economy and buying climate, figures showed Thursday. Stock indexes near record highs and persistent strength in the job market have lifted the consumer comfort gauge in five of the last six weeks since the inauguration of President Donald Trump. The report showed respondents view the buying climate as the most favorable in nearly 15 years, indicating household spending may rebound after a slow start to 2017. While sentiment has been particularly strong among those who vote Republican, the data also showed political independents were the most upbeat since July 2001."

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Gold last traded at $1,209 an ounce. Silver at $17.29 an ounce.

NEWS SUMMARY: Precious metal prices retreated further Wednesday as upbeat jobs data further boosted the U.S. dollar. U.S. stocks traded mixed after the jobs data virtually assured a Fed rate hike next week.

It's (almost) official: The Fed is raising rates next week -CNBC
"If there were any doubts about whether the Federal Reserve would be hiking interest rates this month, Wednesday's blockbuster jobs report almost completely removed them. A report showing that private companies added 298,000 jobs in February pushed market-implied probability of a Fed move to 92 percent, according to the CME's FedWatch tracker that measures the futures market. Traders had assigned an 82 percent chance of a move Tuesday but pushed it higher after the report from ADP and Moody's Analytics....The ADP numbers come ahead of Friday's key nonfarm payrolls report, considered the official count of job creation in the public and private sectors. Expectations are for the report to show a gain of 185,000 from January's 227,000, according to FactSet."

The Next Domino To Fall: Commercial Real Estate -Zero Hedge
"Unless the Federal Reserve intends to buy up every dead and dying mall in America, this is one crisis that the Fed can't bail out with a few digital keystrokes....Crises may rhyme, but they don't repeat. The next Global Financial Meltdown won't start in subprime mortgages - that sector has been wiped out, written down, or passed on to the poor tax-donkey taxpayers....The central banks and state treasuries around the globe may be confident they can bail out the banks, but what if the next domino to fall isn't a bank? What if it is a 'safe, high yield asset' held by institutional owners such as pension funds, insurance companies and REITs (real estate investment trusts)? What if the next crisis isn't a spot of bother caused by excessive leverage, but a systemic collapse of collateral as an entire sector - retailers holding millions of square feet of bricks-and-mortar store space - falls off a cliff?....Commercial real estate is grossly overbuilt in retail and office space. Combine sky-high valuations with cratering demand and billions in short-term CRE loans that must be rolled over into new loans, and we don't have a liquidity crisis, we have a collateral crisis - the assets supporting the debt are no longer worth the loan balance."

Inflation Is Back: Now Get Ready to Deal With the Consequences -Motley Fool
"Have you found that you're needing to part with a bit more of your hard-earned money to buy your usual assortment of goods and services? If so, you're not alone. Inflation is back!....On an annual basis, the CPI is showing an increase of 2.5%, which is a five-year high....Since consumption represents about 70% of U.S. GDP, deflation can potentially be more dangerous than high levels of inflation. On the other hand, runaway inflation is no laughing matter....For the consumer, it means higher variable credit card interest rates, while prospective homebuyers could be facing sharply higher mortgage rates....Perhaps an even bigger, multitrillion-dollar concern is that higher inflation levels could wreak havoc on the stock market."

Why the Trump Bump Has Set Us Up for a Market Crash -Fortune
"Donald Trump's economic platform has sent stocks skyward. That's great for anyone already invested in the stock market, and planning on selling soon. But anyone who has years before they cash in their 401(k) should beware: The Trump Bump will make it far, far tougher to make money in the stock market in the years ahead. It may even set some investors up for big, big losses....The question is whether, given the high levels where stock prices stood pre-election, and the astounding run-up since then, investors have raised the bar for corporate performance so outrageously high that even if Trump does deliver on what he has promised rich returns may still be out of reach....The market is a hotbed of emotions in short interludes. But numbers tend in reign over long periods. The irony is that potentially excellent policies have raised expectations Trump Tower-high. Hope and emotion has gotten us to this summit. Market math will dictate where we go from here."

Trade Deficit in U.S. Widens to Largest in Almost Five Years -Bloomberg
"The U.S. chalked up its largest trade deficit since March 2012 as a jump in merchandise imports in January exceeded a smaller gain in shipments overseas. The gap in goods and services trade increased by 9.6 percent to $48.5 billion, matching the median forecast in a Bloomberg survey, Commerce Department figures showed Tuesday....Rising imports of consumer goods, capital equipment and motor vehicles reflect steady demand from American households and companies, with help from a stronger dollar. The wider deficit indicates trade, which subtracted 1.7 percent from fourth-quarter growth, will weigh on the economy in early 2017....Commerce Secretary Wilbur Ross said Tuesday that the latest data show 'there is much work to be done' on trade agreements and enforcement."

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Gold last traded at $1,216 an ounce. Silver at $17.53 an ounce.

NEWS SUMMARY: Precious metal prices slipped to 6-week lows Tuesday on profit-taking and a stronger dollar. U.S. stocks traded negative for a second day amid lower energy and Fed rate worries.

Why Gold Is A Sure Thing In 2017 -Yahoo! Finance
"As Trump sets out to 'make America great again', gold is back on everyone's radar, gaining on widespread uncertainty and promises of high-level inflationary infrastructure spending. For our favorite precious metal, this is a euphoric time. Gold is great again, and all-American gold - even better....With gold futures up 10 percent and spot prices up almost 7.5 percent in the first quarter, history is preparing to repeat itself with another gold rush....Gold thrives on chaos, and even the slight possibility of impeachment keeps gold prices up. But gold is now good in any scenario. If he remains in office, Trump will pursue highly inflationary policies, and while gold loves chaos first and foremost, inflation is its mistress."

Everything the Market Thinks About Inflation Might Be Wrong -Dow Jones
"No number is more important for investors right now than inflation. The belief that it will continue to rise underpins the recent rally in financial stocks and the slump in government bonds. It is key to commodities, currencies and more....After years of post-crisis monetary experimentation, it's not even clear central bankers can do much about inflation at all....What's more, the last several years of extraordinary monetary policy have shaken a theory that had held sway for decades in financial markets....Indeed, some money managers today believe President Donald Trump's tax-cutting policies may spur demand and thus inflation. His protectionist policies may also push up domestic wages and make imported goods more expensive. Yet, historically, a better guide to inflation has been prices of raw materials, largely commodities. Swings in oil markets and market expectations of long-term inflation have moved in lockstep. Arend Kapteyn, chief economist of UBS's investment bank, calculates that 84% of the variation in inflation since 2002 is explained by shifts in oil and food prices."

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Atlanta Fed Slashes Q1 GDP To Only 1.3% With Yellen Set To Hike -Zero Hedge
"One week ago, we pointed out a curious bifurcation: the Fed was telegraphing an imminent rate hike - one which following Yellen's Friday conference is now virtually assured - even though it appears the FOMC would be hiking in a quarter in which GDP comes in in the mid 1%-range, or lower. The reason: while 'soft data' - which is important to animal spirits if not actual economic output - continues to surge, the 'hard data', that which actually matters to the economy, is still disappointing. Fast forward one week when according to the Atlanta Fed, Janet Yellen is about to dig an even deeper hole because should the Fed hike next Wednesday it will do so in a quarter in which GDP was just revised from 1.8% as of last week to just 1.3%. This forecast was more than double, or 2.7%, as recently as one month ago."

Free Trade And Fiat Money -Forbes
"In contemporary economics, there are perhaps only two contentions that enjoy the endorsement of the entire discipline. The first is the beneficial nature of free trade. The second is that the gold standard is dangerous and obsolete....A gold standard would constrain central banks in time of a crisis. It would crunch down spending and 'demand.' History has proven it a disaster....Once the top economists (very much including Ben Bernanke at Princeton) loudly laughed at the gold standard, lessers at provincial places got in step lest they be revealed as cranks....The trashing of gold came, conveniently, not when the gold standard was extant, but when it was retired. It came in the stagflation decade, the 1970s, very much rung in by the U.S. decision in 1971 to quit the dollar’s definition in gold at $35 per ounce....Fiat money is an arrogant illusion....If Congress and the president would set up a low, flat sales tax on all goods, foreign and domestic, in exchange for a repeal of the 16th amendment to the Constitution that establishes the income tax, we would see an improvement in economic efficiency and growth. And if Congress and the president did this concurrent with a definition of the dollar in gold (a move that is ultra-Constitutional), we might stand to reclaim our good economic old days of yore."

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Gold last traded at $1,225 an ounce. Silver at $17.77 an ounce.

NEWS SUMMARY: Precious metal prices traded lower Monday on profit-taking and a firmer dollar amid Fed speculation. U.S. stocks retreated on geopolitical worries and increasing odds of a Fed rate hike next week.

Gold and silver are a ‘gift’ right now, strategist says -CNBC
"While the prospect of a Federal Reserve interest rate hike sent gold lower on Friday, strategist David Tice told CNBC he is a big believer in the precious metal. He also likes silver, and especially gold and silver stocks. 'They really represent a gift here. We had such a big decline from 2011. A lot of those stocks lost 80 to 90 percent of their value,' he said in an interview with 'Closing Bell' on Friday....Gold is highly sensitive to rising U.S. interest rates, because they increase the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding bullion while boosting the dollar, in which it is priced. However, Tice said when the Fed raised interest rates in December 2015, gold 'still took off for the first half' of 2016. Plus, he thinks the U.S. dollar can still be relatively strong and gold can still 'beat it,' particularly because President Donald Trump has already indicated he doesn't want the dollar to get much stronger."

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The Fed’s Getting Ready to Raise into Weakness -Rickards/Daily Reckoning
"Speculation began after Janet Yellen’s testimony to House and Senate committees last month. She said a solid job market and an overall improving economy suggested the Fed would likely resume raising rates soon....When she starts sounding like a hawk, it’s time to pay attention. As I said, markets are now pricing in nearly a 75% chance of a March rate hike (my estimate is now 90%). But there’s a big difference between the dynamics behind my view of a rate increase and the market’s view. In effect, markets are saying, 'The Fed is hiking rates, therefore, the economy must be strong.' What I’m saying is 'The Fed is tightening into weakness (because they don't see it), so they will stall the economy and will flip to ease by May.' My view is the economy is fundamentally weak, the Fed is tightening into weakness. By later this year, the Fed will have to flip-flop to ease (via forward guidance) for the ninth time since 2013. Stocks will fall, while bonds and precious metals will rally....Under my scenario, the stock market is headed for a brick wall in April or May, when weak first-quarter data roll in. But for now, it's still up, up and away."

Wall St. is misreading Trump, and a market bloodbath is imminent: Stockman -CNBC
"Former top federal budget official David Stockman has a stark warning for investors: There's going to be a disaster in Washington and you're not going to see it coming....'Wall Street is totally misreading Washington,' Stockman told CNBC's 'Futures Now' in a recent interview. 'It's pricing in a fantasy about a Trump stimulus that simply isn't going to happen.'....According to Stockman, the main catalyst for his pessimism about Trump's policies is the 'debt ceiling trap' that he contended will prevent tax reform, infrastructure and defense spending that have excited so many investors....'We will have a government shutdown,' said Stockman. 'It is totally unexpected, unpriced in by Wall Street, [and] it will spook everybody.'"

The vote that could wreck the European Union -The Economist
"It has been many years since France last had a revolution, or even a serious attempt at reform. Stagnation, both political and economic, has been the hallmark of a country where little has changed for decades, even as power has rotated between the established parties of left and right. Until now. This year’s presidential election, the most exciting in living memory, promises an upheaval. The Socialist and Republican parties, which have held power since the founding of the Fifth Republic in 1958, could be eliminated in the first round of a presidential ballot on April 23rd. French voters may face a choice between two insurgent candidates: Marine Le Pen, the charismatic leader of the National Front, and Emmanuel Macron, the upstart leader of a liberal movement, En Marche! (On the Move!), which he founded only last year. The implications of these insurgencies are hard to exaggerate. They are the clearest example yet of a global trend: that the old divide between left and right is growing less important than a new one between open and closed. The resulting realignment will have reverberations far beyond France’s borders. It could revitalize the European Union, or wreck it."

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Gold last traded at $1,226 an ounce. Silver at $17.74 an ounce.

NEWS SUMMARY: Precious metal prices ended the week lower Friday amid a firmer dollar and hawkish Fedspeak. U.S. stocks traded near flat line as the Dow struggled to hold 21,000 level after Fed Chair Yellen's speech.

Trump Tax Plan Could Make Gold Great Again -The Street
"I believe the argument for investing in gold remains compelling both in the near- and long-term, and a Trump tax-reform plan should only help....Gold has long been used as a store of wealth and hedge against inflation and that trade seems to be back in vogue. The U.S. annual inflation rate already moved from 2.07% in December to 2.5% in January. The Trump tax plan seems to promise increased government deficits through both additional infrastructure spending and tax reductions. This would certainly add to an inflation story that's already gaining steam....Former Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan explained another reason in a recent interview with the World Gold Council why the metal seems to be moving higher, saying: 'I view gold as the primary global currency.' Although it's not well known, many central bankers hold this view....This view of gold as a 'currency among nations' will only grow as individual nations continue to be manipulate fiat currencies....Lastly, gold seems like a bargain to me at current levels, given that U.S. stocks are trading at all-time highs and interest rates still close to all-time lows. Even if gold rises to $1,450 (up 25% for the year), the metal will still be 24% below its all-time high of about $1,900. Add it all up and I believe that there's still plenty of value in gold."

Fed's Yellen: March rate hike 'appropriate' if data holds up -Reuters
"The Federal Reserve is set to raise its benchmark interest rate later this month as long as economic data on jobs and inflation holds up, Fed Chair Janet Yellen said on Friday, in comments that likely cement a rate hike at its next meeting....'At our meeting later this month, the committee will evaluate whether employment and inflation are continuing to evolve in line with our expectations, in which case a further adjustment of the federal funds rate would likely be appropriate,' Yellen said in prepared remarks to a business luncheon in Chicago."

Why Is The Cost Of Living So Unaffordable? -Zero Hedge
"The mainstream narrative is 'the problem is low wages.' Actually, the problem is the soaring cost of living. If essentials such as healthcare, housing, higher education and government services were as cheap as they once were, a wage of $10 or $12 an hour would be more than enough to maintain a decent everyday life. Here are some examples from the real world. In 1952, it cost $30 to have a baby in an excellent hospital. If we adjust that by official inflation as measured by the Bureau of Labor Statistic's inflation calculator to 2017, the cost would be $275. ($1 in 1952 = $9.16 in 2017). What does it cost to have a baby delivered in a hospital today? $5,000? $10,000? Who even knows, given the convoluted billing process in today's sickcare system?....Here's a chart that illustrates the breathtaking rise in healthcare costs. Wages are the nearly flat line....Strip away the centralized power that protects and funds cartels, and prices would plummet...The same dynamics would radically transform the cost structure of housing, healthcare, defense and everything else currently controlled by monopolies or cartels."

It will all go horribly wrong -von Greyerz/GoldSwitzerland
"There is a lot of talk about the Trump effect. Is the new US president going to continue to fuel market sentiment or will he cause a collapse. It is of course not Trump that will change the direction of markets. More likely, he could be one of the catalysts that will cause the credit and stock market bubble to burst. When markets are overbought, overvalued and overloved, there is not much needed to change the direction. And this is where we are now. A change in sentiment and fear will make markets turn on a sixpence. In the short term the gold price is a reflection of fear. But in the longer term, all gold does is to reflect the debasement of paper currencies....For anyone who understands the problems that the world is now facing, physical gold ownership gives peace of mind and the best insurance that money can buy. So why is less than 0.5% of world financial assets invested in gold and gold stocks? There are several reasons for this. Firstly, 100 years of massive credit expansion and money printing have mainly inflated the asset classes that investors understand, be it stocks, bonds or property. Also, financial repression, which in layman’s terms means manipulation, has totally distorted most financial markets....With the risks we are seeing around the globe currently, we believe that holding up to 50% in physical gold and silver (outside the banking system) is the best way to protect wealth against the coming collapse of paper money as well as major defaults in the financial system."

What do economists know? -Roberts/Medium
"A journalist once asked me how many jobs NAFTA had created or destroyed. I told him I had no reliable idea. Certainly jobs had been lost when factories closed and moved to Mexico but other jobs had been gained because Americans now had more resources and increased their demand for products that would not be easy to identify....The journalist got annoyed. 'You’re a professional economist. You're ducking my question.' I disgreed. I am answering your question, I told him. You just don’t like the answer....Claims about these issues fill our newspapers, our twitter feeds, and the seminar rooms in economics departments around the country. How should we evaluate these claims? How can we know which of the estimates are true and which are false? When two well-trained really smart economists are on opposite sides of one of these issues and have the empirical analysis to back up their claims, how do we judge which one is right?....What I am arguing here is that the combination of economics with statistics in a complex world promises a lot more than it delivers. We economists should be more humble and honest about the reliability and precision of statistical analysis."

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Gold last traded at $1,232 an ounce. Silver at $17.74 an ounce.

NEWS SUMMARY: Precious metal prices retreated Thursday on profit-taking as rising odds of a March Fed rate hike boosted the dollar. U.S. stocks backpedaled after rushing to Trump-inspired record highs following his congressional speech.

Bank Of America Sets A Date For The Market's "Great Fall" -Zero Hedge
"According to Bank of America, 'the “great fall' in risk assets comes when hawkish Fed & weaker EPS combine. That particular fusion will take place in H2, which is when Harnett says it will be time to get out....The Fed has hiked just 2 times in the past 10 years. On March 15th the Fed will likely tighten for the 2nd time in 3 months. A second rate hike in 3 months would cause markets to anticipate a hike each quarter in 2017, and a jump in the Fed funds rate to 1.5-2% by early 2018. As if that wasn't enough, March 15th is also the date of the Dutch election, and also when the US debt ceiling will be - hopefully - reinstated and immediately surpassed. However, it is the Fed's tightening that is the biggest concern to BofA: 'this acceleration of US financial tightening is a huge deal, and could in time become hugely negative.'....BofA's bottom line: 'we recommend buying S&P 500 puts for the second half of 2017.'"

11 Stunning Visualizations of Gold Show Its Value and Rarity -Visual Capitalist
"Since Ancient times, gold has served a very unique function in society. Gold is extremely rare, impossible to create out of 'thin air', easily identifiable, malleable, and it does not tarnish. By nature of these properties, gold has been highly valued throughout history for every tiny ounce of weight. That’s why it’s been used by people for centuries as a monetary metal, a symbol of wealth, and a store of value. With all that value coming from such a small package, sometimes it is hard to put gold’s immense worth into context."

Swiss America's 2017 newsletter, Volatility's Last Stand, explains the importance of viewing gold as wealth insurance - the ultimate ‘numeraire,’ as Craig Smith puts it - only then will you find gold's daily price movements much less important over the long-term. Our 2017 Gold Report - Early Edition further explains why now is the time to diversify your assets into gold - before the next unintended consequence strikes.

Timing of the Next Fed Rate Hike Is Now a Balancing Act -Bloomberg
"Will they or won’t they? Bond traders are now pricing in odds above 75 percent that Federal Reserve policy makers will raise interest rates when they meet in two weeks, but there is still plenty of data to chew on before then. Moreover, there is no shortage of Fedspeak this week, with 11 officials lined up ahead of the blackout period, including Chair Janet Yellen and Vice Chairman Stanley Fischer....March is a tough call. On one hand, comments from Fed officials make it clear that rate hikes are coming at a faster pace than in each of the past two years. At the same time, even doubling the pace means just two 25-basis-point increases this year....The timing of the next hike is a balancing act between the need for preemptive policy to stave off inflationary pressure against the desire to let labor market strength continue to eat away at any residual underemployment."

Inflation highest in more than four years, PCE shows -Marketwatch
"The higher cost of goods such as gasoline pushed U.S. inflation in January to the highest level since 2012, offsetting rising household incomes and raising the odds of an increase in interest rates soon....Yet an inflation index known as PCE also jumped 0.4% in January, pushing the increase over the last 12 months to 1.9% from 1.6% in December. That matches the highest year-over-year level since October 2012. The PCE index is the preferred tool for the Federal Reserve to measure inflation. The rate of inflation is now close to the Fed’s 2% long-term target, and if it keeps moving higher, the central bank could raise interest rates more aggressively."

Donald Trump’s Economic Plan Has a Trillion Dollar Problem -Fortune
"In his address to Congress on Tuesday, President Trump assailed the steep rise in federal debt under his predecessor. 'In the past eight years, the past administration has piled on more new debt than nearly all other presidents combined,' Trump said....But while Trump has denounced the dangers of piling on mountainous debt, his own 'phenomenal' plans for the US economy seem to do the same....Let's examine four factors that explain the looming perils of excessive debt. The budget is in worse shape than the official numbers show....The tax bill threatens to dig a big hole in the tax revenues....To make his plan work, Trump needs to get America growing really, really fast....Bottom Line: Debt and Deficits kill growth....The Trump agenda will bang against tough constraints, as trillion dollar deficits spread fears of a fiscal crisis, a lot sooner than its champions are admitting. The tax plan is good, the lack of spending cuts to pay for it may be the Trump plan's undoing."

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Gold last traded at $1,250 an ounce. Silver at $18.48 an ounce.

NEWS SUMMARY: Precious metal prices traded mixed Wednesday amid Trump euphoria and a firmer dollar. U.S. stocks traded sharply higher, with the Dow crossing the 21,000 level following president Trump's inspiring Congressional address.

Dow tops 21,000 in intraday trade—on pace for 2nd-fastest milestone in history -Marketwatch
"The Dow Jones Industrial Average on Wednesday traded above 21,000 on Wednesday, putting it on pace to touch a psychologically significant level at the second-fastest rate in history. The blue-chip gauge closed at 20,000 just about 24 trading days ago, marking a then-second-fastest push (42 days) to a 1,000-point milestone. Now, equity benchmarks appear to be shaking off the prospect of an interest-rate hike as early as mid-March to touch another key level, on the heels of reignited optimism about the health of the U.S. and global economy and the belief that Trump can bring into reality, campaign promises that include boosting fiscal spending and cutting taxes. Details around those reforms are still scant but investors appeared to be heartened by the tone Trump established during his address in front of joint session of Congress in a State of Union-style speech late Tuesday."

Gold And Silver: Opportunity Of A Lifetime? -Forbes
"Over the past 39 years, I have rarely used the words 'opportunity of a lifetime.' However, I feel there is a good chance of another one in progress....One year ago, in my February 18, 2016 issue, I wrote about the 2011-2015 decline possibly having been a cyclical bear market in the longer-term secular bull market. If that is correct, much higher highs are ahead....The long-term chart of gold below goes back to the start of this secular bull market in 2001....My view is that gold is a hedge against a loss of confidence in currencies....The new administration is only a few weeks old. However, so far I see signs that we could see a significant inflationary blow-off if the trends of the late 1970s are repeated."

"Buy low and sell high" is timeless advice from seasoned investors to grow wealth. In today's market that translates to selling some sky-high stocks and buying some low-priced precious metals. The Timeless Truth About Gold & Silver Special Report and DVD provides seven timeless truths about money you need to know.

Fed Watching: Why Rates Could Rise A Lot Faster Than You Think -HedgeEye
"Don't freak out. But are you prepared for rising interest rates? It appears as though the Federal Reserve is gearing up for one ahead of their March meeting. Rates could rise a lot faster, in 2017, than investors currently think. Don't take our word for it, here's a smattering of comments from Fed heads yesterday: 'The case for monetary policy tightening has become a lot more compelling,' New York Fed President William Dudley told CNN yesterday....'In my view, a rate increase is very much on the table for serious consideration at our March meeting,' San Francisco Fed President John Williams said in a speech yesterday....Investors heard this message loud and clear. After this trifecta of Fed Heads spoke, here's what investors priced into the Fed Funds futures market this morning, writes Hedgeye CEO Keith McCullough in today's Early Look: Probability of a March rate hike spiked to 80% today....Maybe, just maybe, the Fed is waking up to economic reality. U.S. economic growth and inflation are accelerating."

NY Teamsters Pension Becomes First To Run Out Of Money As Expert Warns "Pension Tsunami" Is Coming -Zero Hedge
"The New York Teamsters Road Carriers Local 707 Pension Fund has won the unfortunate award for 'First Pension to Officially Run Out of Money.' According to the New York Daily News, and a host of angry former truck drivers who've had their pension benefits slashed, the Pension Benefit Guaranty Corp. (PBGC) has officially been forced to step in and take over payments to retirees of the Local 707, albeit at a much lower rate....'It’s a nightmare, it has just devastated all of our lives. I’ve gone from having $48,000 a year to less than half that,' said Chmil, one of five Local 707 retirees who agreed to share their stories with the Daily News last week....And while the Local 707 pension was the first to dry up, it certainly won't be the last...Also on the brink of drying up are the pensions for two Teamster locals - 641 and 560 - in New Jersey, union officials said. Plus 35,000 Teamster members upstate who are part of the money-hemorrhaging New York State Teamsters Pension Fund."

Trump just delivered the best speech of his political career -NY Post
"Donald Trump gave the best speech of his short political life last night, and it had nothing to do with grand oratory. He was thoroughly presidential, speaking plainly and yet masterfully in projecting an optimistic vision of the America he aims to build. It is a vision so optimistic and encompassing that even steaming Democrats had to join boisterous Republicans in the applause at times....His speech was well written, and well delivered, chock full of initiatives and full of changes in mood....Most of all, the president led the Capitol to an emotional crescendo by introducing one of his guests, the tearful widow of Ryan Owens, the Navy SEAL killed in a recent raid in Yemen. The loud, sustained applause was simultaneously heartbreaking and inspiring....Put it this way: If the Trump of last night is the Trump who shows up to the Oval Office every day, he will be an extraordinary force with the potential to reshape the political landscape of both parties....Sure, he can be his own worst enemy, but there will be no stopping him if he can bottle last night’s approach. 'The time for trivial things is over,' he said at one point in an appeal to Democrats."

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