January Blog Archives 2019

Gold last traded at $1,292 an ounce. Silver at $15.53 an ounce.

NEWS SUMMARY: Precious metal prices traded steady Thursday despite a firmer dollar. U.S. stocks traded mixed after Morgan Stanley's latest quarterly results disappointed investors amid growing uncertainty around the Chinese economy.

Why stock-market investors are starting to worry about the government shutdown -Marketwatch
"The partial government shutdown is now setting records, and investors might not be able to ignore it for much longer, analysts said. 'Two key risks that we highlighted in the past (Fed's monetary policy and trade war) have subsided, but new risks have emerged: U.S. government shutdown and signs of additional slowdown outside the U.S.,' wrote Marko Kolanovic, global head of quantitative and derivatives strategy at JPMorgan, in a note dated Wednesday....History shows past shutdowns have had a negligible impact on stocks. So far, that’s been the case with the partial shutdown that began on Dec. 21 and entered its 27th day on Thursday with no end in sight....The White House has reportedly doubled its own estimate of the shutdown’s impact on economic growth, news reports said Tuesday, forecasting it would trim first-quarter gross domestic product by 0.5 percentage points if it lasts through January....Meanwhile, the shutdown has deprived traders, economists and policy makers of at least 10 key government data releases so far, including figures related to housing, trade and consumer spending."

Who blinks first will matter in Trump, Democrats' wall fight -Associated Press
"Of all the issues at stake as President Donald Trump and Democrats wrangle over his prized border wall, the latest snag is whether bargaining over the proposal should come before or after shuttered government agencies reopen....If Trump blinks first and temporarily halts the shutdown so negotiators can seek agreement, the White House and some Republicans worry there'll be no incentive pushing Democrats to cut a deal. With 800,000 federal employees back at work and getting paid, why would Democrats agree to provide billions in taxpayer money for a keystone of Trump’s presidential campaign that they hate and that he promised repeatedly Mexico would finance? Yet Democrats fear that if they negotiate while the shutdown persists, it would encourage Trump to use such brinkmanship in the future. He’d think the pressure tactic had worked, and he’d have plenty of opportunities to do the same in the near future, they say....To strike a deal temporarily reopening government, the commitment from Democrats 'would have to be pretty strong to get something done' on the wall, Sen. Mike Rounds, R-S.D. said. Otherwise, he added about Trump, 'If it’s just seen as a weakening of his position, then he probably wouldn't do it.'....But majorities of Republicans polled agree with Trump that there's an immigration crisis at the Mexican border and blame Democrats for the shutdown. That means GOP senators abandon Trump at their own peril."

Gold Within Striking Distance Of $1300 -Kitco
"After trading to a high of $1295.40, gold softened a little bit, also trading to a low of $1287.60. What is important about this range is even with a respectable gain on the day, pricing is still caught within a tight and narrow band. That band created on Friday, January 4th was the net result of dynamic Price swings in which gold traded to a low that day of $1278, and a high of $1300.40. Since then gold has not been able to break above or below those price parameters. Investors have bid the precious metal up on multiple occasions since January 4th, however on each attempt $1300 has been an insurmountable price point to trade at or above. That being said there is no question that market sentiment in regards to gold still remains bullish. Beginning after a major climb in pricing at the end of November, when gold was trading at approximately $1213 per ounce....When it comes to the most expensive precious metal (gold, silver, platinum and palladium), palladium is now the most expensive metal. Palladium futures closed at $1327.00 after gaining $47.00, a full $27 above gold futures."

The Real Cure for Economic Insecurity -Editors/Wall Street Journal
"'The gig economy is simply the next step in a losing effort to build some economic security in a world where all the benefits are floating to the top 10%.' So declared Democratic Sen. Elizabeth Warren in 2016 amid an explosion of start-ups that facilitate freelancing by connecting workers with customers. Ms. Warren was echoing a liberal lament that jobs now come with fewer protections and benefits....Yet the Labor Department’s Contingent Work Survey last summer showed that a mere 10.1% of workers were employed in alternative work arrangements, about the same as in 1997. The government study contradicted other liberal claims. For instance, independent contractors earned more than traditionally employed workers and overwhelmingly preferred the flexibility of their jobs....Democrats also want to prohibit state right-to-work laws that let workers choose whether to belong to a union...But one reason the U.S. economy is growing faster than its friends across the pond is a more flexible labor market. The Trump Administration has eased the burdens on employers while giving non-traditionally employed workers access to more benefits...Turns out the best antidote to economic insecurity is less government and more growth."

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Gold last traded at $1,293 an ounce. Silver at $15.63 an ounce.

NEWS SUMMARY: Precious metal prices rose Wednesday on safe-haven buying and a flat dollar. U.S. stocks rose as investors cheered strong quarterly earnings from major banks like Goldman Sachs and Bank of America.

Gold resumes climb toward $1,300 -Marketwatch
"Gold prices on Wednesday resumed their climb toward the psychologically important price of $1,300 an ounce, finding support from the turmoil surrounding the U.K.’s plan to leave the European Union and the upcoming vote of no confidence facing Prime Minister Theresa May’s government. Caution among traders has deepen 'ahead of a no-confidence vote on British Prime Minister Theresa May’s government and other geopolitical risks, including the U.S. government shutdown, loom large in investors minds,' said Mark O’Byrne, research director at GoldCore. 'Physical demand for gold coins and bars has picked up in the U.K. and Ireland, due to Brexit and U.K. political uncertainty,' he added....Gold appeared to gain more ground Wednesday following news that U.S. Speaker of the House Nancy Pelosi sent President Trump a letter to postpone the State of the Union speech, said Jeff Wright, executive vice president of GoldMining Inc. 'I think the sudden increase [for gold] is shutdown related, especially when it appears the Democrats have zero interest in engaging with the president or compromising,' he said. 'Also, as the partial shutdown is impacting Q1 GDP little by little.'"

Measured in 72 currencies, gold is at ... an all-time high -Mining-Journal
"'Well measured in 72 currencies, gold is at ... or within a few percentage points ... of being at an all-time high for people in those countries,' the CEO of Sharps Pixley said. His list started with the Afghan afghani, ended with the Zambian kwacha and included the Australian dollar, Russian ruble and South African rand. 'Not on the list are the British pound, the Swiss franc, the Euro and Chinese yuan - but we are not far off in all of those currencies too,' he said. 'Only in USD does gold lag - and not all of us live in the US.' Analysts have tipped a rising US dollar gold price this year given plateauing US interest rates and geopolitical uncertainties including Brexit. Norman said he remembered the same phenomenon - 'a stealth rally in minor currencies' - ahead of the last major gold bull run in dollar terms in the late 1990s. The bullion dealer said gold had seen an average year-on-year gain of about 10% compounded since 2000, which he believed meant it was a reliable yardstick to measure costs or wealth - and a useful thing to own."

Bernie Sanders' minimum wage proposal is irrelevant thanks to Trump's pro-growth policies -Pudzer/Fox News
"Predictably, Sen. Bernie Sanders, I-Vt., is introducing a bill to raise the minimum wage to $15 an hour. Since the Republicans control the Senate and the presidency, it has absolutely no chance of passing....Progressive hosts who interviewed me on cable news shows would often ask how our company and its franchisees (Carls Jr./Hardees) could hire people for less than a 'living wage' when they were trying to support families. I’d try and explain how increasing wages above the level at which business owners could afford to pay their employees would make it difficult for businesses to survive, let alone grow. I also tried to explain mandatory wage increases would reduce the entry-level job opportunities that young working-class Americans so desperately needed. I suggested that the best solution was for government to pursue policies that encourage economic growth, job creation and increased wages. I co-authored a book entitled 'Job Creation: How It Really Works and Why Government Doesn’t Understand It,' which advocated reducing taxes, slashing regulations, and encouraging domestic energy production....President Trump cut taxes, slashed regulations, and encouraged domestic energy production. Through his first six quarters in office, economic growth doubled from Obama’s 1.5 percent to 3 percent....Because of economic growth, employers can afford to pay higher wages, and they need to if they are going to attract the best employees. We call that capitalism....In 2014, President Obama advocated increasing the minimum wage to $10.10...Today, thanks to President Trump’s capitalist policies that encourage economic growth, we could raise the minimum wage to $10.10 an hour and few people would even notice. If Sen. Sanders and his 'Fight for $15' crowd stay out of the way, a $15 minimum wage may soon be as irrelevant as the bill he is about to introduce."

Falling wages, rising housing costs fuel homelessness among aging Americans -Chicago Tribune
"If current trends continue, the number of aging homeless people will more than double in three major metropolitan areas, straining social and medical services, a report released this week concluded. It said that improvements in housing plus services aimed at preventing medical crises could sometimes save cities money. The report was the work of researchers from several universities, including the University of Pennsylvania and the University of Delaware and was funded by four foundations. Data from New York, Boston, and Los Angeles County were analyzed. Philadelphia's homeless shelters also are struggling with an influx of older homeless people who have complex medical problems the shelters are not designed and staffed to handle...The report said the coming boom in aging homeless people stems from younger, less educated baby boomers who faced economic challenges in their youth: falling wages and rising housing costs. A disproportionate number wound up homeless, an effect that has persisted for decades. Now in their 50s and 60s, they are biologically older than most people their age and already facing the medical problems of aging....The researchers said the cities likely could save money, especially in the oldest, sickest group, by helping older homeless people find permanent housing and providing them with adequate medical and social support."

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Gold last traded at $1,288 an ounce. Silver at $15.60 an ounce.

NEWS SUMMARY: Precious metal prices were steady Tuesday despite a stronger dollar. U.S. stocks rose as Netflix led a rally in tech-related stocks after news it would hike its monthly membership prices.

Gold steady as dollar gains on fears of economic slowdown -Reuters
"Gold prices were steady on Tuesday, pressured by a firm dollar on the back of concerns over slowing global growth, but well supported by expectations the U.S. Federal Reserve could refrain from raising interest rates this year. Asian shares were on the back foot on Tuesday as surprise falls in China’s exports stoked worries about the global economy, while the U.S. dollar was marginally higher against its peers....Market participants think that worries of slowing domestic and global growth as well as tame U.S. inflation will make Fed policymakers hesitant to raise interest rates in the world’s largest economy....Meanwhile, investors are still eyeing developments in trade between the United States and China, with U.S. officials expecting a visit by Beijing's top trade negotiator this month."

What's next for the dollar, gold, stocks & bonds? -Merk/Merk Investments
"In assessing our crystal ball for 2019, the starting point is the Federal Reserve (Fed) because they provide an anchor for the price of risk-free assets (Treasuries) around which risk assets are priced....The Fed had been on a set course to let its large Treasury holdings run off (engage in so-called quantitative tightening or 'QT') and to raise rates...In a recent panel discussion, Powell implied the path of quantitative tightening is not set in stone, and the Fed would be flexible. Similarly, Powell suggested the Fed can be very flexible, even lower rates on short notice should it be required. What??? The key thing that had changed is that some markets have thrown a tantrum, notably the equity markets....After Powell flip flopped to suggest the Fed could also be easing, equity markets surged....My conclusion is that, at the very least, volatility is to remain elevated...exacerbated by the Fed’s lack of clear direction....As we are approaching the end of the economic expansion, will king dollar be de-throned? In favor of a weaker dollar is an expectation of lower rates ahead, especially given the run up in recent years....If my crystal ball is correct, the price of gold may break out further to the upside when we are closer to the end of the rate hiking cycle. As recent history suggests, though, the time to diversify is ahead of the unfolding of actual events....All of this doesn’t bode too well for equities. That said, historically, bear markets tend to mostly coincide with recessions...Investors have a certain risk tolerance; with volatility elevated and years of a bull market in equities, odds are their portfolios are riskier than they signed up for."

The Most Absurd Myth of the 21st Century -Bonner/Bonner And Partners
"Every era has its busted myths and failed dreams. Wall Street and Washington wallow in them. The practical challenge for us is not to be smarter than other investors or wiser than other voters… but merely to step outside the myth long enough to get a good look at it....Assets, markets, companies, and empires rise and fall. No single one, or group of them, ever dominates for long. But now comes the most absurd myth of all - that the feds can 'manage' and 'guide' the economy, not only to make it better, but to make sure nothing bad happens....U.S. monetary policy for the last 30 years is nothing more than the classic three mistakes over and over. Mistake #1 - keep interest rates too low for too long. Mistake #2 - raise rates to try to mitigate the damage from Mistake #1. Mistake #3- drop rates in a panic when Mistake #2 causes the economy to crash. And that’s just monetary policy. What about fiscal policy? The key concept of enlightened budget management is that fiscal policy should be countercyclical. You save (surpluses) when the gettin's good… and spend (deficits) when it ain't. Pharaoh did it 3,000 years ago - storing grain during seven fat years… and releasing it during the seven lean years. It's so simple, even a moron could do it....Since 1980, the feds have spent $20 trillion more than they have taken in. This year, spending will outpace tax receipts by roughly $1 trillion. And we’re still in a recovery. Where is the promised growth? Where’s the missing revenue? Of course, the idea is absurd. There is no plausible theory… and no observable case… where people get richer by borrowing more and more money, year after year. Instead, they go broke. It’s only by saving money and investing it wisely that it is even possible to get ahead. And the feds are unable to do either."

White House shifts shutdown strategy, tries to bypass Pelosi -Associated Press
"Shifting strategy, the White House invited rank-and-file House Democrats to lunch Tuesday with President Donald Trump, bypassing Speaker Nancy Pelosi and her leadership team in an effort to get centrist and freshman lawmakers on board with funding Trump’s long-promised U.S.-Mexico border wall. Pelosi approved of lawmakers attending the meeting, telling her team that the group can see what she and others have been dealing with in trying to negotiate with Trump to end the partial government shutdown, now in its 25th day with no resolution in sight....Lawmakers invited to the White House include centrist Democrats from districts where Trump is popular, including freshmen....Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell said on the Senate floor that it’s up to Democrats to get the country off the 'political carousel' of the shutdown fight. The Kentucky Republican said Democrats have turned Trump’s wall into 'something evil' and have engaged in 'acrobatic contortions' to avoid dealing with the security and humanitarian crisis at the southern border. With the government shutdown now in its fourth week, negations between the White House and Congress are at a standstill. Trump has demanded $5.7 billion for the border wall; Democrats are refusing but are offering money for fencing and other border security measures."

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Gold last traded at $1,291 an ounce. Silver at $15.68 an ounce.

NEWS SUMMARY: Precious metal prices rose Monday on safe-haven buying and a weaker dollar. U.S. stocks fell led by losses in tech, lagging corporate earnings and concerns over an economic slowdown in China.

Gold prices edge higher on expectations of Fed pause -Reuters
"Gold prices inched up on Monday, supported by expectations that the U.S. Federal Reserve will not raise rates this year....Market participants think that worries of slowing domestic and global growth as well as tame U.S. inflation will make Fed policymakers hesitant to raise interest rates in the world’s largest economy....Meanwhile, investors were also worried about a partial U.S. government shutdown...which entered its 24th day on Monday, making it the longest shuttering of federal agencies in the U.S. history, with no end in sight....Markets awaited trade data from China later in the day, with recent signs Asia’s largest economy was losing momentum and the government planning to lower its 2019 economic growth target. Physical gold premiums rose in China last week as investment demand firmed on worries over global growth and a softening dollar."

Understanding Market Cycles -Zero Hedge
"I was digging through some old charts over the weekend and stumbled across this gem from AlphaTrends which explains the 'best time to buy stocks.' The Wyckoff theory is that the better an investor can identify these phases of the market cycle, the more profits can be made on the ride upwards of a buying opportunity."

"2009-Present: So, here we are, a decade into the current economic recovery and a market that has risen steadily on the back of excessively accommodative monetary policy and massive liquidity injections by Central Banks globally. Once again, due to the length of the 'mark up' phase, most investors today have once again forgotten the 'ghosts of bear markets past.'....What gets lost during these bullish cycles, and is found in the most brutal of fashions, is the devastation caused to financial wealth during the inevitable decline. What you should notice is that in many cases bear markets wiped out essentially a substantial portion, if not all, of the previous bull market advance....Whether or not the current distribution phase is complete, there are many signs suggesting the current Wyckoff cycle may be entering its final stage of completion....The recent sell-off should have been a wake-up call to just how quickly things can change and how damaging they can be."

America’s richest are losing confidence in the stock market -New York Post
"The rich and famous want out of this volatile market. America's wealthiest people have lost investing confidence - and they may be right on the verge of a flight to the safety of CDs and other cash products as market losses mount, with a staggering $13 trillion estimated by ET Intelligence Group to have vanished in equities worldwide in 2018. 'In periods of uncertainty, the wealthy tend to be more concerned with asset protection rather than growth,' said Joseph Biondolillo, principal at financial planning firm Biond Financial. 'They tend to be defensive-oriented, and willing to wait for the dust to settle and for all the facts to be in.'....'Significant financial market declines in the first half of December, which have continued, are negatively affecting investor confidence,' said Spectrem President George H. Walper, Jr. And there’s more to come, he added, from fears of a slowing global economy to rising interest rates. Biondolillo says rich investors are now pulling up their stakes in securities. But 'although they do not like uncertainty,' he added, 'the wealthy understand the importance of asset allocation and diversification' in order to weather the storm."

Goldman Predicts Gold Prices to Climb to Highest Since 2013 -Bloomberg
"Goldman Sachs Group Inc. is leading a pack of bullish voices cheering for gold. The bank's analysts led by Jeffrey Currie raised their price forecast for gold, predicting that over 12 months the metal will climb to $1,425 an ounce - a level not seen in more than five years. Bullion has benefited as rising geopolitical tensions fuel central bank purchases, while fears of a recession helped boost demand from investors seeking 'defensive assets,' they said....Speculative interest in gold signals investors are not only closing bearish bets but are also adding to bullish positions, Suki Cooper, an analyst at Standard Chartered, said in a note. Gold is also getting a boost from mounting speculation the Federal Reserve may pause in raising borrowing costs, boosting the appeal of non-interest-bearing metal. 'We expect the safe-haven bid, and to a lesser extent, gold’s inflation hedge properties, to remain key drivers of the metal’s price in 2019, complemented by a resurgence of physical demand,' Cantor Fitzgerald analysts led by Mike Kozak said in a report. Gold and silver are 'looking good in 2019,' underlining a potentially positive indicators that 'should drive a bullish case' for both metals."

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Gold last traded at $1,288 an ounce. Silver at $15.66 an ounce.

NEWS SUMMARY: Precious metal prices rose Friday on safe-haven buying and a flat dollar. U.S. stocks traded lower as the U.S. government shutdown dragged on and worries over a possible China slowdown also pressured equities.

Gold set for fourth weekly gain on softening dollar -Reuters
"Gold rose on Friday as the dollar slipped on expectations that brakes could soon be applied to U.S. interest rates, putting the non-yielding metal on track for a fourth straight weekly gain. The dollar slipped against other major currencies, impaired by Fed Chairman Jerome Powell’s comment that the central bank could be patient on rate policy. 'Gold rose on a somewhat weaker dollar, but at the moment it seems to be trying to overcome the $1,300 hurdle,' said Commerzbank analyst Daniel Briesemann. The precious metal was also supported by increasing market nervousness over U.S. President Donald Trump's demand for a wall to be built on the border with Mexico. Trump threatened on Thursday to use emergency powers to bypass Congress to pay for the proposed wall....Gold, which is used as a safe-haven investment during times of economic, political and financial uncertainty, is up about 0.6 percent for the week."

Times A-Changin’ – But Gold Permanent -Gold Switzerland
"Long term holders of gold have a different perspective of the world. They are not believers in instant gratification. Nor do they believe that a world based on money printing and debt can create sustainable wealth. They also know that the socialism which has spread like a plague in the Western world only works until you run out of other people’s money. What makes gold the most obvious wealth preservation investment and insurance against a false financial system is its permanence. The proof of this is indisputable since gold is the only money that has survived for 5,000 years. Ephemeral financial systems and currencies come and go, so do empires. But gold survives them all. As JP Morgan stated: 'Money is gold and nothing else'. Anybody who doesn’t understand gold, neither studies nor understands history. There is nothing magic about gold, it is just real money. But since it is the only surviving currency why bet against a 5,000 year record? Gold is not an investment, it is a store of value and at times a medium of exchange....The most important asset human beings have been gifted with is their brain and their genes, including their health. Anything material we can lose, however well we protect it. But survival depends mostly on how you use your brain, as long as you are healthy of course. Even the best plans can go wrong. Remember 'The times they are a-changing' and unforeseen events will happen out of the blue. Thus we must be prepared for the unexpected and react as necessary."

Russia Buys Quarter of World Yuan Reserves in Shift From Dollar -Bloomberg
"Russia’s central bank dumped $101 billion in U.S. holdings from its huge reserves, shifting into euros and yuan last spring amid a new round of U.S. sanctions. The central bank moved the equivalent of $44 billion each into the European and Chinese currencies in the second quarter, according to a report published on late Wednesday by the Bank of Russia....'Russia is making a strategic shift in its reserves towards holding fewer dollars and more assets in other currencies,' said Benn Steil, director of international economics at the Council on Foreign Relations in New York....Russia isn't alone in its bid to reduce reliance on the world’s reserve currency amid increasing attempts by Washington to use economic leverage for geopolitical ends. In a deepening trade war with America, China sold a large portion of its U.S. Treasury holdings last year....'We aren't ditching the dollar, the dollar is ditching us,' Russian President Vladimir Putin said in November. 'The instability of dollar payments is creating a desire for many global economies to find alternative reserve currencies and create settlement systems independent of the dollar.'"

Memo to Trump: Declare an emergency -Buchanan/WND
"In the long run, history will validate Donald Trump's stand on a border wall to defend the sovereignty and security of the United States. Why? Because mass migration from the global South, not climate change, is the real existential crisis of the West. The American people know this, and even the elites sense it....Whatever one may think of the face-off Tuesday with 'Chuck and Nancy,' Trump's portrait of an unsustainable border crisis is dead on: 'In the last two years, ICE officers made 266,000 arrests of aliens with criminal records, including those charged or convicted of 100,000 assaults, 30,000 sex crimes and 4,000 violent killings.'....What should Trump do now? Act. He cannot lose this battle with Pelosi without demoralizing his people and imperiling his presidency....Trump should declare a national emergency, shift funds out of the Pentagon, build his wall, open the government and charge Democrats with finding excuses not to secure our border because they have a demographic and ideological interest in changing the face of the nation."

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Gold last traded at $1,287 an ounce. Silver at $15.64 an ounce.

NEWS SUMMARY: Precious metal prices eased back slightly Thursday on a firmer dollar. U.S. stocks traded near flat-line on downbeat Macy's data ahead of Fed chairman Powell's speech.

Gold Treads Water Ahead Of Heavy Dose of "Fed-Speak" -Kitco
"Gold and silver prices are near steady levels in early U.S. trading Thursday. The safe-haven metals are seeing some support from a pullback in global equity markets today. The recent sell off in the U.S. dollar index is also a bullish element for the precious metals markets. February gold futures were last up $0.10 an ounce at $1,292.00. March Comex silver was down $0.015 at $15.72 an ounce. The marketplace is awaiting Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell’s speech to the Economic Club of Washington, D.C. at midday today. Several other Federal Reserve officials also are on tap for speeches today. The Wednesday afternoon release of the minutes from the last meeting of the Federal Reserve's Open Market Committee (FOMC) were deemed as favoring the dovish side of monetary policy, which supported the metals markets and helped to drop the U.S. dollar index to a 2.5-month low on Wednesday. Two Fed officials on Wednesday also suggested there may not be further interest rate cuts in 2019."

Fed Chair Powell Attempts to Reassure Markets -Fox Business
Swiss America chairman Craig R. Smith discussing Fed chairman Jerome Powell's speech at the Economics Club of Washington D.C. today. Mr. Smith believes that what the Fed does regarding the liquidation of its $5 trillion balance sheet, know as Quantitative Tightening, will have a huge impact on the stock market this year. Watch now to find out how many rate hikes we can expect in 2019.

Fed chair Jerome Powell frets over stocks more than you think -Crudele/New York Post
"Jerome Powell is lying to us. The Federal Reserve chairman has said repeatedly that his interest rate policy for 2019 will depend on how the economy is doing. 'Data dependent' is exactly how he explained the Fed’s policy any number of times. And if that’s really the case, Wall Street right now should be worried - very worried - that there will be at least two more interest rate hikes this year....In fact, if you go through the minutes of that last meeting, you can hardly find anything that the Fed finds wrong with the economy. Sure, the group thinks the economy will expand by only an annual rate of 2.3 percent in 2019 and not the 3 percent it looks as though it did in 2018. The Fed statements should have people talking about how many rate hikes there will be in 2019 and not misleading us into believing there won’t be any. So why the lie? Because Powell and his Fed aren't really economic-data dependent. They are market-data dependent - the Fed is afraid that it’s causing the stock market to go down. And the Fed is afraid, I supposed, that people - including the president of the US - are getting angry at it."

Economists See U.S. Recession Risk Rising -Wall Street Journal
"Economists surveyed by The Wall Street Journal see a growing risk of recession in the U.S. On average, economists surveyed in the past week as part of The Wall Street Journal’s monthly poll said there was a 25% chance of a recession in the next year, the highest level since October 2011. 'Trade talks, China, and global growth are formidable risks,' said Lynn Reaser of Point Loma Nazarene University, a former chief economist at Bank of America Corp. Just over two-thirds of the economists said U.S. growth is somewhat or very exposed to a slowdown in other major economies such as China, Europe and Japan. Forecasters are even more concerned about the outlook for 2020. More than half of the economists, 56.6%, said they expected a recession to start in 2020, a presidential election year....Some economists cited the risk that rising inflation could lead to a faster pace of interest-rate increases by the Federal Reserve. Some also noted that the impetus to the economy from fiscal stimulus - tax cuts and more spending - could wane in the months ahead, sapping output growth."

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Gold last traded at $1,292 an ounce. Silver at $15.73 an ounce.

NEWS SUMMARY: Precious metal prices rose Wednesday on momentum buying and a weaker dollar. U.S. stocks traded mixed as investors awaited details of China-U.S. trade talk progress.

Gold lifted by weaker dollar as market ponders pace of Fed interest-rate hikes -Marketwatch
"Gold edged higher on Wednesday, buoyed by a weaker dollar as the market looks to comments from Federal Reserve officials for hints on the pace of the central bank’s interest-rate hikes this year. Riskier markets, however, found relief on reported progress, though measured, for U.S.-China trade talks, limiting gains for haven gold. On Wednesday, Chicago Fed President Charles Evans said in a speech that the Fed is likely to 'eventually' push interest rates up slightly into restrictive territory if the dark clouds over the outlook clear up. Separately, however, St. Louis Fed President James Bullard told The Wall Street Journal that the U.S. economy could be pushed into a recession if the central bank presses forward with more rate increases. Against that backdrop, the U.S. Dollar Index was down 0.7% at 95.256. Softness in the U.S. dollar had offered a runway for gold to rise late in 2018, as moves in the U.S. unit can influence the attractiveness of those commodities to holders of other currencies....Taking a look at the bigger picture, analysts at Societe Generale were upbeat on the outlook for gold. 'We believe 2019 will be a turning point and would recommend investors consider increasing the gold allocation in their portfolios,' they wrote in a research note released Wednesday."

What, exactly, are we losing from the government shutdown? Not much -Washington Examiner
"If we were to rely upon the press itself to tell us what the results of the government shutdown were, we'd have to conclude that it saves lives. For we're being told by varied newspapers that three people have died in the understaffed national parks. Given that the average is six deaths in any one week, that would mean that 15 lives have been saved this past three weeks by there being no nonessential federal workers in those parks....If shutting 25 percent of the federal government saves lives and blocks u-bends then, well, do we really need all that government we generally get? It's certainly possible to argue that we don't....Our task, thus, is to look at what government currently does and work out which things it should stop doing....My list is going to be considerably more inclusive here than might be politically viable - I'd close the entirety of the departments of agriculture, education, and commerce in any and every government anywhere straight away, and then after breakfast start thinking about what else we can get along without. Your list might be very much more specific. But it is claimed that there are 650 different regulatory agencies at the federal level alone - actually, within the medical professions alone there are 650 state licensing boards, which does look like a tad bit of overkill. We can most assuredly do without one or more of these. It's an important point, though. If we do want to have less government, the absence of disaster while we currently have 25 percent less of it being instructive about whether we need quite so much as we have, then we need to have government doing fewer things."

Baby Boomers Will Bust Bulls' Best Laid Plans -Zero Hedge
"Those who own the most equities don’t have a lot of time to recover before retirement, and are likely to sell into any rally. There’s been an abundance of analysis on the recent swoon in stocks, but there’s one key variable that often gets overlooked when determining whether and how fast the market rebounds: demographics. On that basis, the outlook isn’t very good....The runway to retirement is significantly shorter, which suggests any patience with a bear market will be rather thin. Even if the next recession proves shallow, older investors, who also own the greatest percentage of equities than any other demographic cohort, will opt for more risk aversion in the decade(s) to come....The closer you are to retirement, the more risk averse you tend to be. Compounding that behavioral reality is another fact: Household wealth has been essentially stagnant for decades....None of that bodes well for tolerance with volatile and declining equity holdings. The point being that equity rallies, whether in the short or intermediate term, are likely to meet with selling from this part of the population."

Investors Should Pay Attention To Silver Momentum -Kitco
"Gold is not the only precious metal seeing a strong start in 2019. Optimism in silver is building as prices hold near their highest levels in almost six months. Mike McGlone, senior commodity strategist at Bloomberg Intelligence, said that continued financial market volatility and a weaker U.S. dollar should continue to support silver prices. 'Silver is poised in 2019 to move above a resistance level that has held the market in check for three years, in our view,' he said. 'A primary companion of higher silver prices - a weakening dollar - is likely to join the recovery in gold and industrial-metals prices.' McGlone isn’t alone in his bullish outlook for silver. Ira Epstein, director of the Ira Epstein Division of Linn & Associates, Inc., also said that he is bullish on the metal in a note to clients. 'As I see it, silver is now in an uptrend. Long positions are now warranted and should be held to as long as prices don’t close back under the 18-day moving average,' he said. Epstein said that he is looking for initial resistance at $15.955 but added that with its current momentum, it has room to run to $17 an ounce."

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Gold last traded at $1,283 an ounce. Silver at $15.68 an ounce.

NEWS SUMMARY: Precious metal prices eased back Tuesday on a firmer U.S. dollar. U.S. stocks traded mixed as shares of Amazon and chip makers rolled over.

BlackRock Heaps Praise on Gold's Role as a Tough Year Opens -Bloomberg
"Gold may extend gains as global growth slows, equity market volatility remains elevated and the Federal Reserve is expected to ease back on the pace of policy tightening this year, according to a BlackRock Inc. money manager, who says the precious metal offers an effective hedge....'I do think we’re experiencing a slowdown,' Russ Koesterich, portfolio manager at the $60 billion BlackRock Global Allocation Fund, said in an interview, citing decelerations in the U.S., China and Europe....'We’re constructive on gold,' Koesterich said in the phone interview on Friday. 'We think it’s going to be a valuable portfolio hedge. We’re multi-asset investors: we think about its effect on the entire portfolio, and what we see value in right now is gold’s value as a diversifier.'....With the dollar and interest rates expected to be range bound, this could be bullish for gold, according to Koesterich....'The relationship between uncertainty, volatility and gold’s relative performance, it’s something that’s worth watching. It has been a store of value for a very long time, and again, it has had a very consistent record of helping mitigate equity risk when volatility is rising.'"

Tonight at 9pm (EST) PBS America will air a one-hour documentary on gold - Gold: The Story of Man's 6000 Year Obsession - Episode 2 - "In the second part of Real Vision's ground-breaking documentary, Grant Williams examines how gold is bought and sold around the world...Grant also weighs up the possibility of the world returning to a gold standard and addresses the all-important accusations of manipulation that surround the subject of man’s 6000-year obsession."

What Will Cause the Next US Recession? -Delong/Project Syndicate
"Three of the last four US recessions stemmed from unforeseen shocks in financial markets. Most likely, the next downturn will be no different: the revelation of some underlying weakness will trigger a retrenchment of investment, and the government will fail to pursue counter-cyclical fiscal policy....The next recession most likely will not be due to a sudden shift by the Fed from a growth-nurturing to an inflation-fighting policy. Given that visible inflationary pressures probably will not build up by much over the next half-decade, it is more likely that something else will trigger the next downturn. Specifically, the culprit will probably be a sudden, sharp 'flight to safety' following the revelation of a fundamental weakness in financial markets....If a recession comes anytime soon, the US government will not have the tools to fight it. The White House and Congress will once again prove inept at deploying fiscal policy as a counter-cyclical stabilizer; and the Fed will not have enough room to provide adequate stimulus through interest-rate cuts. As for more unconventional policies, the Fed most likely will not have the nerve, let alone the power, to pursue such measures. As a result, for the first time in a decade, Americans and investors cannot rule out a downturn. At a minimum, they must prepare for the possibility of a deep and prolonged recession, which could arrive whenever the next financial shock comes."

Return Of The Bull Or Dead Cat Bounce? -Zero Hedge
"If you listen to the media, the shocking and totally unexpected downturn last was unable to be foreseen by anyone. Thankfully, it’s now over and we can get back to the roaring bull market. Or can we?....The decline from 'all-time' highs took many of the persistently bullish commentators by surprise. However, the topping process began long before October and the market was sending a clear warning that something was amiss....It isn’t just the extraction of liquidity from the markets which will likely weigh on the markets over the course of the next year. Global economic growth continues to weaken, 'Trade Wars' and 'Tariffs' are still a threat, Valuations remain elevated, Interest rates are still rising and Debt loads remain extremely high....I want to reiterate that portfolio management processes have now been switched from 'buying dips' to 'selling rallies' until the technical backdrop changes....There remains an ongoing bullish bias which continues to cling to belief this is 'just a correction' in an ongoing bull market. However, there are ample indications, as stated, the decade long bull market has come to its inevitable conclusion."

Sears to ask bankruptcy judge for approval to liquidate -Reuters
"Sears Holdings Corp will ask a bankruptcy judge on Tuesday if it can proceed with liquidation after it could not reach an agreement on Chairman Edward Lampert’s $4.4 billion takeover bid, casting doubt on the survival of the 126-year-old U.S. department store chain, people familiar with the matter said. Should Sears liquidate its assets, it would become one of the most high-profile victim in the wave of bankruptcies that has swept the retail sector in the last few years, as the popularity of online shopping exacerbates the fierce price competition facing brick-and-mortar stores. Sears, which filed for bankruptcy protection last October, may have to close hundreds of stores it is still operating, potentially putting up to 68,000 people out of work, the sources said. Its vast inventories of tools, appliances and store fixtures will be sold in fire sales, the sources added....A bankruptcy auction for Sears’ assets is not due until Jan. 14."

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Gold last traded at $1,289 an ounce. Silver at $15.75 an ounce.

NEWS SUMMARY: Precious metal prices rose Monday on a sharply weaker U.S. dollar. U.S. stocks rose in volatile trading as U.S. - China trade talks commenced.

Apple Blames China for Stock Plunge -Fox Business
Swiss America chairman Craig R. Smith discussing Apple's stock tumbling to an 18-month low and whether or not this should be blamed upon China. Mr. Smith believes Apple's weakness is less about China and more about the Federal Reserve's decision to continue Quantitative Tightening.

Stock-market investors, it's time to hear the ugly truth -Henrich/Marketwatch
"The Federal Reserve is propping up the market - and here’s the evidence. For years critics of U.S. central-bank policy have been dismissed as Negative Nellies, but the ugly truth is staring us in the face: Stock-market advances remain a game of artificial liquidity and central-bank jawboning, not organic growth. And now the jig is up. There is zero evidence that markets can make or sustain new highs without some sort of intervention on the side of central banks. None. Zero. Zilch....When did global central-bank balance sheets peak? Early 2018. When did global markets peak? January 2018. And don’t think the Fed was not still active in the jawboning business despite QE3 ending. After all, their official language remained 'accommodative' and their interest-rate increase schedule was the slowest in history, cautious and tinkering so as not to upset the markets....The Fed likes to claim it is managing policy based on the economy, not on markets. But here’s the ugly truth on that: The economy these days is very much tied to market performance. Big drops in markets have an adverse impact on the economy, full stop. Hence, it is a fallacy to argue that one looks at one but not the other....Recognizing the market’s newfound sensitivity to QT, the Fed was sure to react....So don’t mistake this rally for anything but for what it really is: Central banks again coming to the rescue of stressed markets."

Gold rises as Fed shift hopes hurt dollar -Reuters
"Gold rose and palladium hit a record high on Monday as the dollar was dented by expectations that the U.S. Federal Reserve would halt its rate-hiking cycle for the year, lifting demand for the metals from holders of other currencies. 'The precious metals complex is fairly well supported given the loose monetary turn coming out of the Fed,' ING analyst Warren Patterson said. Fed Chairman Jerome Powell on Friday said the central bank would be more sensitive to downside risks in the market, adding that it was 'prepared to shift the stance of policy' if needed. Gold tends to gain when interest rate hike expectations ease....The dollar weakened on growing bets the Fed would pause its rate hike cycle in the coming months after Friday’s comments from Chairman Jerome Powell. 'We are seeing buyers returning to the (gold) market on dips,' said Saxo Bank analyst Ole Hansen, adding that the dollar weakness supported prices. "

IMF Warns World "Dangerously Unprepared" For Upcoming Global Recession -Zero Hedge
"In the starkest warning yet about the upcoming global recession, which some believe will hit in late 2019 or 2020 at the latest, the IMF warned that the leaders of the world’s largest countries are 'dangerously unprepared' for the consequences of a serious global slowdown. The IMF's chief concern: much of the ammunition to fight a slowdown has been exhausted and governments will find it hard to use fiscal or monetary measures to offset the next recession. 'The next recession is somewhere over the horizon, and we are less prepared to deal with that than we should be . . . [and] less prepared than in the last [crisis in 2008],' David Lipton, first deputy managing director of the IMF, told the Financial Times during the annual meeting of the American Economic Association. 'Given this, countries should be paying attention to keeping their economy on a level trajectory, building buffers and not fighting with each other.'....'China is clearly slowing down - we think China’s growth has to slow, but keeping it from slowing in a dangerous way is an important objective,' he said, noting that a downshift would be 'material very broadly, not just in Asia.'....With the latest round of US-China trade negotiations starting today, the Atlanta conference revealed widespread pessimism among economists about the chance of any rapid resolution to the current trade wars."

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Gold last traded at $1,281 an ounce. Silver at $15.69 an ounce.

NEWS SUMMARY: Precious metal prices traded mixed Friday on mild profit-taking and a weaker dollar. U.S. stocks rallied after Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell said the central bank will be patient in raising rates.

Powell "Listening Carefully To Markets", Sends Stocks Soaring -Zero Hedge
"Fed Chairman Jerome Powell says the Fed is prepared to be patient given tension between signals from financial markets and the real economy. After briefly spooking markets briefly with an optimistic readout of how awesome the economy is, Fed Chair Jay Powell gave stocks just what they wanted, when in a stark departure from his December FOMC speech, the Fed chair said that Fed policy can change and is 'prepared to adjust policy quickly and flexibly' while adding that 'there is no preset path for policy', confirmed that the Fed is 'listening carefully to market.' Perhaps more importantly, Powell also said that the Fed would adjust the balance-sheet normalization policy 'if needed' and if it becomes an issue for the market and economy: 'We said that we would be prepared to adjust our normalization plans' and this would include the balance sheet....And in an amusing tangent, Powell also said that he would not resign if Trump asked him to. This is a distinctly different tone for Powell's communication style - clearly signaling he got the message from markets that his hawkish pre-position perspective on halting asset bubbles is utterly useless once you get the role of Fed Chair."

Automation will be the end of banks as we know them -TechCrunch
"The unbundling of the bank has begun. Just 10 years ago, the average consumer had very few financial relationships and interacted with just one or two institutions to fulfill all of their financial needs. But fintech companies are breaking up the old guard by focusing on specific things that banks have done and simply doing them better. The fintech revolution started after the 2008 financial crisis, and was driven largely out of frustration with the existing establishment. Facing heavy scrutiny, banks pulled back dramatically on a lot of their activities to reduce risk, which left a significant gap in the marketplace. Fintech companies stepped in and brought new ideas to an industry that had seriously lacked innovation. The established banks are focused on copying the best of what fintech has to offer. They’re moving slowly and are a solid five years behind, but their goal is to provide a just-good-enough mobile experience to ensure their customers stay with them....The next 20 years are going to be defined by the way automation transforms the average person’s life....This is a nightmare scenario for banks: Once automation reduces enough friction in the financial industry, banks lose their relationships with customers....Those that fail to recognize the changing technological landscape run the risk of losing their market share and their position in the marketplace."

Five years ago, in DON'T BANK ON IT!: The Unsafe World of 21st Century Banking, authors Craig Smith and Lowell Ponte warned readers that the Fed's zero interest rate policy would forever change the world of banking as we knew it. Read a FREE Executive Summary of the book to learn about another 19 major banking risks facing depositors in the 21st century.

Gold Poised for Weekly Gain as Global Jitters Boost Haven Demand -Bloomberg
"Gold is headed for a third weekly gain after turbulent equity markets sent investors hunting for haven assets amid global growth concerns. Gold futures breached $1,300 an ounce in New York and spot gold flirted with the level in early London trading, before dropping back as stocks in Europe and Asia recovered some of their losses ahead of fresh trade negotiations between the U.S. and China next week....Sentiment among traders and analysts remained bullish for an eighth week in a Bloomberg survey. With equities faltering, global holdings of gold-backed exchange-traded funds added 67 tons last month and have risen every day since the start of the new year. '2019 is already getting off to a volatile start and we expect to see the political and economic uncertainty of 2018 continue and deepen,' said Mark O’Byrne, research director at GoldCore Ltd. 'We believe risk assets will underperform, while gold outperforms in 2019.'....'The dollar is showing some signs of weakness especially against the yen, stocks are under pressure, yields are coming down, Fed rate expectations have been coming down as well,' said Ole Hansen, head of commodity strategy at Saxo Bank A/S. 'If that trend continues, then gold will continue to assert its role as a safe haven.'"

When The Stock Buybacks Go Bye-Bye -Forbes
"Debt-funded stock buybacks have been one of the major drivers of the U.S. stock market boom since the Great Recession. Ironically, 2018 was the most active year on record for buyback activity, yet the stock market faltered and experienced its first annual loss since 2008. If the stock market performed as poorly as it did in 2018 with record amounts of buybacks to prop it up, just imagine how much worse it would be if buybacks were to slow down significantly or grind to a halt? U.S. corporations have taken advantage of ultra-low bond yields to borrow heavily in the corporate bond market to fund buybacks. The eventual bursting of the U.S. corporate debt bubble will exacerbate the ultimate decline in stocks....Loose monetary conditions are what created the corporate debt bubble in the first place, so the ending of those conditions will end the corporate debt bubble. Falling corporate bond prices and higher corporate bond yields will cause stock buybacks to come to a screeching halt, which will also pop the stock market bubble, creating a downward spiral. There are extreme consequences from central bank market-meddling and we are about to learn this lesson once again....It’s going to take much more than the decline since early-October to unwind this bubble – make no mistake about that....While many investors are hopeful that the current bounce is the start of another leg up, I am not so optimistic: the trend is still down and the market has an incredible amount of excess that still needs to be worked off."

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Gold last traded at $1,294 an ounce. Silver at $15.79 an ounce.

NEWS SUMMARY: Precious metal prices rose Thursday on safe-haven buying and rising market volatility. U.S. stocks fell sharply following a dire quarterly warning from Apple and weaker-than-expected manufacturing data.

Gold lifted by signs of ailing global economy -Reuters
"Gold prices scaled a more than six-month peak on Thursday as fears of a global economic slowdown embellished safe-haven demand for bullion, with a weaker dollar adding further support. U.S. gold futures traded up 0.5 percent at $1,290.40. 'Fears of an economic slowdown are one source of the equity market volatility, thus contributing to the covering of short positions in the futures market and investors' renewed interest in gold,' said Julius Baer analyst Carsten Menke. European and Asian bourses were dealt a heavy blow as Apple Inc announced its first revenue guidance contraction in 12 years. The news from the technology giant also weighed on the dollar index, which slipped by about 0.2 percent. Weakness in the currency reflects concerns over the U.S. economy and a drastic shift in investor expectations for interest rate rises, with many now expecting and end to the U.S. Federal Reserve's rate-raising cycle....'Volatile global markets always add to the charm of buying gold,' said Amit Kumar Gupta, portfolio management services head at Adroit Financial Services in New Delhi."

Stock Prices Have Plummeted. That Doesn't Make Them Good Buys -Fortune
"The business press and Wall Street money managers are advancing lots of plausible reasons for the stock market's steep slide, ranging from the menace of more Fed rate hikes to an escalation of trade tensions with China to slowing global growth. A much simpler, and more likely explanation is getting scant attention: Equities have been extremely expensive for years, and the more overpriced they grew, the more vulnerable they become to the kind of severe reversal that’s now underway. Put simply, super-high valuations sow the seeds of super-sharp corrections.In fact, the markets bring to mind those Looney Tunes cartoons where Wile E. Coyote hovers in mid-air over a gigantic chasm, arms and legs whirling helicopter-style, seemingly defying gravity, then suddenly realizes he's run off the cliff, and plunges to the desert floor. Until recently, U.S. stocks were just too pricey to offer anything but paltry future returns. So now, the crucial question is whether the big drop has transformed equities into a bargain, a New Year’s refrain on Wall Street.... Stocks are a lot more expensive than they appear for one simple reason: earnings are highly inflated, raising the denominator, and artificially shrinking the PE....After years of paying essentially flat wages, companies are now finding they need to raise pay to attract workers....Second, delivering another double-digit profit increase would require a return-on-investment bonanza that’s mathematically impossible....Reaching double-digit returns on investment from these already incredible levels of profitability is a fantasy, like imagining the day when Wile E. outfoxes the Roadrunner."

Everything Is Plunging: Stocks, Yields, Dollar Tumble As ISM, Apple Panic Spreads -Zero Hedge
"Today's drop has pushed the Dow to below the Dec 26 closing level, which preceded the historic 1000 point Dow move on December 27. Come to think of it, we are about 350 points from another 4-digit move in the Dow Jones, only this time to the downside. The broad-based drop is being led by the Nasdaq, which is down over 3%, largely due to the Apple fiasco. Stocks aren't the only thing that is sinking: so are Treasury yields led by the belly, with the 10Yr tumbling below 2.60%, and down the 2.57% last, the lowest level since January 2018. Finally, with US recession fears front and center, the US Dollar is also tumbling while gold is surging. And with everything going to hell in a hand basket, gold is just waiting for the right moment to pounce."

Liberal revolt threatens to derail House Democrats on their first day in charge -San Francisco Gate
"House Democratic leaders are set to advance sweeping internal rules changes Thursday...But in their first day of power in the new Congress, Democrats must stave off a liberal rebellion after prominent Democrats said they would oppose the entire rules package that has been carefully assembled by Rep. Nancy Pelosi, D-Calif., and a top lieutenant. Rep. Ro Khanna of California and Rep.-elect Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez of New York said they would vote against the rules changes - in the second vote Democrats will take in the majority after ostensibly electing Pelosi as the new speaker - because of the inclusion of a fiscal measure known as 'pay as you go,' or PAYGO. That rule, echoing a provision in federal law and in the Senate's rules, would require the House to offset any spending so as not to increase the budget deficit....The PAYGO rules date back nearly 30 years, to Congress' initial attempts to rein in the budget deficits of the 1980s. But the rules fell by the wayside amid the budget surpluses of the 1990s."

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Gold last traded at $1,284 an ounce. Silver at $15.64 an ounce.

NEWS SUMMARY: Precious metal prices rose Wednesday on safe-haven buying despite a stronger dollar. U.S. stocks struggled to find their footing as 2019 trading began.

Gold Opens 2019 With Fanfare -Bloomberg
"Gold's year-end rally is pushing into 2019, with bullion advancing for a fifth straight day as equities posted fresh losses after the worst year since the financial crisis. The metal hit a six-month high nearing $1,300 an ounce...The advance came as fresh figures showed China manufacturing shrinking and U.S. equity futures tumbled as stocks slumped across Europe and Asia. 'Mostly people are moving toward safe-haven assets, such as gold, because of the volatility in the equity markets,' Gnanasekar Thiagarajan, director at Commtrendz Risk Management Services, said by phone. The U.S. government shutdown 'will only further create more uncertainty, so that will be supportive,' he said. Gold surged in the final quarter of 2018 as investors positioned themselves for a global slowdown, with fewer rate hikes expected from the U.S. Federal Reserve, and as a steep sell-off in the global equities spurred demand for havens. 'Gold is building towards a crescendo' in the first quarter, said Eily Ong, a metals and mining analyst at Bloomberg Intelligence."

Learn more about why gold and silver could become the top assets to own this coming year in Swiss America's 2019 Real Money Perspectives Newsletter which is now available! Call 800-289-2646 to request a free copy or register HERE

Investors Are Still Cautiously Optimistic About 2019. But Here's What Could Go Wrong. -New York Times
"After an unexpectedly bad year for the stock market, investors are looking for clues about what 2019 will bring. The hope on Wall Street is that the underlying U.S. economy is sound...But the risk is that the plunge, the worst annual decline in a decade, could be the start of something more sinister. The forces that pushed the S&P 500 down 6.2 percent in 2018 are still in place....The index ended 2018 down 14.5 percent from its high point, and a bear market could yet be in store should stocks experience another decline similar to what they went through in early December....'It could get more frightening before it gets better,' said James Paulsen, chief investment strategist at the research firm Leuthold Group....In the worst case, a recession could occur. Stocks tumbled as investors became increasingly concerned that the Fed, under a new chairman, Jerome H. Powell, would raise interest rates too far and send a chill through the American economy....China, Japan and the European Union showed signs of slowing down late in 2018, and reliable indicators of global growth like the price of oil and copper are flashing warnings."

Last month Swiss America chairman Craig R. Smith explained a few additional reasons investors might see things go wrong in 2019 here.

Your Cash Is No Good Here. Literally. -Wall Street Journal
"Sam Schreiber was mid-shampoo at a Drybar blow-dry salon in Los Angeles when someone from the front desk approached her stylist with an emergency: a woman was trying to pay for her blow-out with cash. 'There was this beat of silence,' says Ms. Schreiber, 33 years old. 'She literally brought $40.' More and more businesses like Drybar don't want your money - the paper kind at least. It’s making things awkward for those who come ill prepared....Starbucks went cashless at a Seattle location in January...The practice of not accepting cash has become popular enough to catch the attention of American lawmakers....Despite the popularity of debit- and credit-card transactions, plenty of people do still pay for things with actual money. Cash represented 30% of all transactions and 55% of those under $10....Massachusetts is the only state that currently requires retailers to accept cash. Some New Jersey legislators are working to make their state next. New York City Councilman Ritchie Torres of the Bronx recently proposed legislation that would prohibit retailers and restaurants from refusing cash, and city council members in Washington, D.C., and Philadelphia have proposed similar legislation."

Learn more about the growing "war on cash" and where it is headed in our FREE special report THE SECRET WAR, PART II: Weapons of Cash Destruction.

King dollar's reign faces challenges in 2019 -Reuters
"After an unexpected rally that carried the dollar to 18-month peaks and saw it end 2018 as investors’ top trade, the currency faces challenges in the coming year. They include an expensive valuation, a flagging equity boom, waning cash repatriation by U.S. companies, and the possibility that the U.S. Federal Reserve will not raise interest rates as many times as signaled. Hence the prediction in a Reuters poll this month that the dollar will end 2019 around 5 percent below current levels....Furthermore, the Bank of America Merrill Lynch’s monthly investor survey shows the greenback regaining the 'most crowded trade' crown from the FAANG tech stocks group. But the wheels have come off that investor bandwagon in recent years, as big bets have misfired on Bitcoin and tech....On the economic front, jobs and housing data suggest a decade-long U.S. recovery is losing traction and a flattening bond yield curve is flashing the classic recession warning."

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