December Blog Archives 2019

Gold last traded at $1,283 an ounce. Silver at $15.38 an ounce.

NEWS SUMMARY: Precious metal prices rose Friday on safe-haven buying and a weaker dollar. U.S. stocks traded mixed as Wall Street concluded a roller-coaster week.

With Turmoil Rampant, Gold Targets $1,300 as Gloomy 2019 Beckons -Bloomberg
"Gold is closing out 2018 with a flourish. Prices are poised for the biggest monthly gain in almost two years as concerns about next year’s economic outlook, volatility in global equities and a government shutdown in the U.S. spur demand for the metal as a haven. Spot bullion hit a six-month high on Friday, topping $1,280 an ounce, as investors favored defensive assets, adding to holdings in exchange-traded funds over the month. Silver rose to the highest since August as it approaches its 200-day moving average, which could trigger further technical buying. Gold is powering into the year’s end as global equities sink in the fourth quarter. Banks including Goldman Sachs Group Inc. have flagged the potential for gains over 12 months as the Federal Reserve steps back on the pace of U.S. rate increases. 'We are very optimistic on gold,' said Benjamin Lu, an analyst at Phillip Futures Ltd. 'There's still a lot of uncertainty and gloom toward 2019.'"

Steve Forbes Is At His Brilliant Best In "In Money We Trust?" -Tamny/Real Clear Markets
"Among monetary policy writers with a desire to revive money as a stable measure of value, Steve Forbes has saint-like qualities. He does because in modern times the economics profession has near unanimously run from the pithy and endlessly true insight from Adam Smith that 'the sole use of money is to circulate consumable goods.'....So what is money? Money is an agreement about value, nothing else...Money is what enables people to exchange the fruits of their labor for all that they don't have. While we work for money, what we're really doing when we go to work each day is expressing a desire to import from others who likely have no interest in what we’re producing....Since trade is really about goods for goods, the measure that's stable will be the one most frequently used on the way to major enhancement of those lucky enough to exchange....All of which underscores yet again the importance of stable money, and a crucial new documentary by Steve Forbes and Elizabeth Ames, In Money We Trust? In a production that will be shown on PBS stations nationwide, the duo remind us of what’s sadly been forgotten by economists, politicians, and media members: money is only money if it has a strict definition of value that holds true over time....With an eye on stability, many hundreds of years ago producers happened on metals (iron, copper, silver, and gold among others) as the best measures of value (money) when it came to facilitating exchange. Gold ultimately won out, and it’s a reminder of the basic truth that money was hardly an invention of the state....They begin their feature on money with a history of its origins. Prominent here is the great monetary thinker Nathan Lewis. Few know money’s various early forms better than Lewis does, nor can they tie early experimentation to the eventual acceptance of gold as the ultimate definer of the measure as well as Lewis can. Gold emerged victorious not by sheer luck or random sun spots, but because (per Lewis and Forbes) it’s the commodity least influenced by everything else. Precisely because there’s so much gold stock, and so little gold flow (new discoveries), gold’s price is very stable. The stability is what makes it money....Forbes and an all-star cast of commentators including Brian Domitrovic, Adam Fergusson, Alan Greenspan, Arthur Laffer, Seth Lipsy, Judy Shelton, Amity Shlaes, Paul Volcker, and many, many others address Nixon’s error, and in the process make a case for a return to some kind of monetary regime focused on currency stability."

Pending Home Sales Crash 7.7%, Biggest Drop In Four Years -Zero Hedge
"Pending home sales dropped again in November, sliding -0.7% vs the expected 1.0% increase, declining in six of the last eight months, with a cumulative loss since March of -5.9% (-8.9% annualized)....and crashed a whopping 7.7% compared to last year, the biggest annual drop since April 2014. Always eager to put lipstick on a pig, commenting on the collapse NAR chief economist Larry Yun said 'the latest decline in contract signings implies more short-term pullback in the housing sector and does not yet capture the impact of recent favorable conditions of mortgage rates.'....Not everyone agrees: as Bloomberg notes, the poor results underscore the challenges as elevated prices and higher mortgage rates keep many Americans on the sidelines of the housing market. Economists consider pending-home sales a leading indicator because they track contract signings; purchases of existing homes are tabulated when deals close, typically a month or two later....Not even Larry could spin the report as bullish admitting that the latest government shutdown will harm the housing market. 'Unlike past government shutdowns, with this present closure, flood insurance is not available. That means that roughly 40,000 homes per month may go unsold because purchasing a home requires flood insurance in those affected areas,' Yun said. 'The longer the shutdown means fewer homes sold and slower economic growth.'"

U.S. Economy Fuels Boom in Consumer Debt -Wall Street Journal
"Americans are carrying more consumer debt than ever before...Consumer debt, including credit cards, auto and student loans and personal loans, is on pace to top $4 trillion in 2019. That comes even as mortgage debt approaches levels last seen during the housing meltdown. Homeowners owed about $10.3 trillion on mortgages at the end of the third quarter, up 2.8% from a year earlier, according to Federal Reserve data. Mortgage debt peaked at $10.7 trillion in early 2008....Consumer spending has increased 2.7% on average in the four quarters through September compared with the same period a year earlier, as disposable income rose 2.7% on average, according to Moody’s Investors Service....Consumers on average owed $6,826 on their cards as of September, up 1.9% from a year before and up 11% from 2011, according to credit-reporting firm Experian . Loans originated for new-car purchases between July and September hit $30,977, on average, the highest for any third quarter on record....Whether the growth in credit remains manageable likely depends on the outlook for the U.S. economy, which has been dogged by fears of a slowdown or even recession. Almost half of U.S. finance chiefs believe the economy will slide into recession by the end of 2019, according to a recent Duke University/CFO Global Business Outlook....Credit-card loan losses are rising from a year earlier despite the low unemployment rate....Student loans also are a particular concern. There is more than $1.5 trillion of outstanding student-loan debt...'If borrowers can’t pay down their student-loan debt now, in a time of relative economic prosperity, what will happen during the next economic downturn?,' John Anglim, a credit analyst at S&P Global Ratings, wrote in a recent report."

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Gold last traded at $1,281 an ounce. Silver at $15.30 an ounce.

NEWS SUMMARY: Precious metal prices rose Thursday on safe-haven buying and market volatility. U.S. stocks erased much of the previous day's gains amid renewed tensions between China and the United States.

Beware These January Days When The Fed's QT Will Rock Markets -Zero Hedge
"With traders finally accepting the reality that Quantitative Tightening means collapsing liquidity, tighter financial conditions and - obviously - lower asset prices, especially in the aftermath of Powell's 'autopilot' comment regarding the Fed's balance sheet runoff which sent markets tumbling during the last FOMC meeting....January 2019 should see similar 'tightening' as the Fed's balance-sheet run-off continues (including two heavy weekly QT periods during the first- and third- weeks of January)....The shrinking Fed balance sheet is one of the most important drivers of (declining) asset prices....We'll know as soon as the first trading day of 2019, when $18.2BN in TSYs are set to mature."

Gold rises, holds near 6-month highs on falling equities -Reuters
"Gold rose on Thursday, supported by a weaker dollar and investors buying the metal to hedge against falling stock markets, keeping it near six-month highs hit in the previous session. Spot gold rose 0.6 percent to $1,275.06 per ounce. 'The risk-averse sentiment is the most dominant force today. Investors are busy profit-taking in equities, which is benefiting gold,' said Naeem Aslam, chief market analyst at Think Markets UK. A global equity rally fueled by a dramatic surge on Wall Street ran out of steam on Thursday, after a fall in Chinese industrial profits offered a reminder of the pressures on the world economy. 'There has been an extensive surge in the gold exchange traded fund holdings and there is absolutely no shortage of momentum there. Investors are just preparing themselves by buying gold as there are several uncertainties heading into 2019,' Aslam said....Among other metals, silver was up 0.8 percent to $15.15 per ounce, after hitting its highest level since mid-August at $15.18."

The market is pricing in 'widespread disaster' -CNBC
"I learned ages ago that the market is a lot smarter than I am. That collection of buyers and sellers out there has more accumulated wisdom than I could ever aspire to and it's given us a sharp smack across the face. Don't mess with a market that's pounding you with its message. The market has made it totally clear to me that I don't have my eyes open, and if I do, I am not seeing clearly. What is the market telling me that I have missed in my myopic haze? We're in a recession, right? Or at least we will be early next year. That means, of course, that GDP numbers will be revised down, way down. It means that the numbers we have been looking at are an illusion....The market says that a recession must be creeping into all corners of this economy, and if I had a stronger lens prescription, I would have seen it....The market knows in its wisdom that something insidious is happening with inflation. Those threatened tariffs must be to blame - there will be no resolution and the resulting price escalation is going to create an inflationary skyward spiral....All those cynics who, for years, have predicted the end of the longest bull market in history, have finally been correct."

'Plunge Protection Team' convened amid Wall Street rout -NBC News
"Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin will host the call with the president's Working Group on Financial Markets, known colloquially as the 'Plunge Protection Team.' The Working Group dates to March 1988 when Washington was still trying to figure out what was behind the 'Black Monday' stock market crash of October 1987...The group also met in 2008 during a profound financial crisis and issued recommendations for overhauling banking regulations and rules on mortgage lending....The benchmark S&P 500 stock index is on pace for its biggest percentage decline in December since the Great Depression. The Treasury Department on Sunday said the Working Group will discuss 'coordination efforts to assure normal market operations.'....Investors are betting U.S. economic growth will slow as a tax cut stimulus fades and as three years of gradual interest rate hikes by the Federal Reserve cool purchases made by businesses and households."

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Gold last traded at $1,273 an ounce. Silver at $15.06 an ounce.

NEWS SUMMARY: Precious metal prices rose Wednesday on safe-haven buying amid market volatility. U.S. stocks rose in a volatile session as investors tried to regain some of the steep losses suffered in the previous session.

Gold hits six-month high on U.S. political worries -Reuters
"Gold rose to its highest in six months on Wednesday as worries over U.S. political uncertainty, aggravated by a partial government shutdown, and slowing global economic growth drove investors towards the safe-haven metal. Spot gold touched $1,274.68 in early trade, its highest since June 20. 'There is some safe haven buying at this point in time because of the partial (U.S. government) shutdown. The dollar against the Japanese yen and Swiss franc has lost quite a bit of value,' said Afshin Nabavi, Senior Vice President, MKS SA. Investors were unnerved by the partial U.S. federal government shutdown and President Donald Trump’s hostile stance towards the Federal Reserve chairman. The U.S. Senate has been unable to break a deadlock over Trump’s demand for more funds for a wall on the border with Mexico, and a senior official said the shutdown could continue until Jan. 3....Spot gold is up about 4.1 percent for the month thus far, putting it on track to register its best December in about 10 years."

What Was Steve Mnuchin Thinking? Three Possibilities -Atlantic
"Sunday evening, when Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin put out a press release on calls he held with executives from the country’s largest banks. Mnuchin's statement assured the public that they had not been having liquidity problems or 'clearance or margin' issues - the sorts of things you would worry about if the country were on the brink of a financial crisis....What was the Treasury secretary thinking? Who thought we were tipping into a financial panic? None of the possible explanations are very reassuring, though it seems that Mnuchin was trying to be. Option one: The Treasury secretary was speaking to an audience of one...the current Federal Reserve chairman, Jay Powell....Option two: The Treasury secretary believes that the market correction is due in part to animal spirits - animal spirits he could quiet by reminding everyone that the financial system is in fine shape....Option three: Mnuchin has some troubling insider knowledge, and he wanted to broadcast to the markets that he is aware and in charge. Maybe some financial firms are teetering?....Whatever Mnuchin was trying to do, he did not succeed in it, instead stoking market fears and sowing confusion...If they're communicating this poorly in the absence of a crisis, just imagine how disastrously they might perform in the presence of one."

King Dollar To Lose Its Crown In 2019 -Kitco
"King dollar's reign could come to an end next year as fears of a global economic slowdown could stop the Federal Reserve from raising interest rates aggressively in 2019, according to some analysts. 'If you look back, U.S. dollar rallies end when the Fed ends its tightening cycle,' said Adam Button, senior currency strategist at Forexlive.com, in a telephone interview with Kitco News. 'We are at that point or very close to that point.' Button’s comments came after the Federal Reserve’s December monetary policy meeting, where they decided to raise interest rates for the fourth time this year, the ninth in the current cycle. However, the pace of rate hikes looks to be slowing as the U.S. central bank, in its latest economic projections, estimated only two rate hikes next year....'While markets are anticipating limited Fed action next year, investors appear to be underestimating the odds of tightening by central banks abroad,' said currency analysts at CIBC World Markets. Some currency analysts have said that the closing gap in global monetary policy will favor the euro over the U.S. Dollar....Simon Derrick, chief currency strategist at Bank of New York Mellon, said that weak economic growth will weigh on U.S. equity markets, which in turn will add further pressure to the U.S. dollar. 'A weaker U.S. dollar would solve a lot of global problems. I think the positive factors would outweigh negative factors,'” he said....Gold and commodities look to do well in 2019 because of a weaker U.S. dollar."

A bear market usually means even steeper losses are ahead -CNBC
"Investors will have a hard time finding a place to hide should the S&P 500 keep trading in bear market territory, if history is any indication. A CNBC analysis using Kensho found that all 11 S&P 500 sectors average steep losses after the broad index plunges 20 percent or more in a six-month period. The S&P 500 entered Wednesday's session in a bear market, down 20.06 percent from an all-time intraday high set on Sept. 21 amid ongoing turmoil in Washington. Stocks entered bear market territory on Monday after the worst Christmas Eve sell-off in history. President Donald Trump went after the Federal Reserve once again on Monday, calling it 'the only problem our economy has' in a tweet. Trump also said the Fed does not 'have a feel for the Market.'"

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Gold last traded at $1,258 an ounce. Silver at $14.70 an ounce.

NEWS SUMMARY: Precious metal prices held near 5-month highs Friday despite a firmer dollar. U.S. stocks erased early gains as a week-long equity exodus put the major indexes on track for one of their worst weeks of the year.

Gold's Recent Strength Should Extend Into 2019 -Barrons
"Prices for precious metals are on track for the biggest quarterly rise in nearly two years, with analysts forecasting further gains in 2019. 'Gold has rallied, in fits and starts, since its August bottom,' says Brien Lundin, editor of Gold Newsletter. As of Wednesday, the metal trades about 4% lower year to date. However, for the fourth quarter it has outperformed U.S. stocks, up more than 4% compared with a drop of 14% for the S&P 500. The metal is poised for its largest quarterly percentage gain since the first quarter of 2017....Gold prices marked a five-month settlement high of $1,256.40 an ounce Wednesday, just ahead of the Fed decision, then eased back in electronic trading....Gold’s performance in 2019 will depend mostly on the same themes that impacted the metal in 2018: the dollar and U.S. equities, says Milling-Stanley. Next year, U.S. 'equities will not be receiving the boost of the Trump [administration] tax cuts, and the dollar will not have the support of three or four increases in the federal-funds rate, so both are unlikely to be as strong as they have been,' he adds....This is a 'great time to buy' gold, says Lundin, as many of the 'bearish factors that had been holding the metal back have now completely shifted into its favor' Lundin expects to see gold climb to $1,375 an ounce by the end of 2019."

2018 Is Officially "The Worst Year On Record" With 93% Of All Assets Down -Zero Hedge
"In his last Early Morning Reid for 2018, Deutsche Bank's Jim Reid writes that '2018 has been like a rebellious teenager suddenly aware of their own mind, independence, and the world around them after years of being guided and cajoled in everything they do.' He also notes that for him 'peak QE moving to QT and the Fed raising rates four times this year has been enough to reverse a significant amount of the liquidity-inspired asset price returns of the pre-tightening era. A bit like Road Runner galloping off the cliff only to suddenly look down.' But most importantly, Reid notes that the chart in question showing the percentage of global assets down on a dollar adjusted basis each year since 1901 was 'the most requested chart we've ever been involved in', and 2018 continues to the be the worst year on record on this measure with 93% of assets currently down - worse than the years of the Great Depression - and up from 89% at the end of October. The record bearish print is made all the more fascinating, considering that just one year ago, 2017, was the 'best' year ever for markets on this measure, when just 1% of assets finished with a negative total return in dollar terms. Putting these two extreme years in context, since 1901 the average has been that 29% of assets finish a given year with a negative total return, leading Deutsche to exclaim that it's been 'an amazing couple of years nonetheless as we swing from one extreme to the other.'"

Stock market woes raise a nagging fear: Is a recession near? -Associated Press
"Fears of a recession have been mounting with the U.S. stock market appearing to be headed for its worst December since 1931 - during the Great Depression. Wall Street's sustained slump has been fueled by investor concerns about lower corporate profits, higher corporate debt, a festering trade war between the United States and China and a broader global slowdown. And the worries are mounting. On Wednesday, stocks tumbled over concerns that the Federal Reserve will continue raising rates. And they plunged again Thursday as President Donald Trump appeared open to a partial government shutdown unless he receives funding for a wall along the border with Mexico....Nearly half the chief financial officers surveyed by Duke University's Fuqua School of Business foresee a recession by the end of next year. And by the end of 2020, 82 percent do so....Both the previous two U.S. recessions overlapped with stock market sell-offs. The Dow plunged nearly 34 percent in 2008 after the housing bubble burst. And it shed about 7 percent in 2001 when the tech stock bubble burst."

Even a Booming Job Market Can’t Fill Retirement Shortfall for Older Workers -Wall Street Journal
"For older Americans, the last few years of work can be a vital chance to patch up thin savings or pay down debt to ease their way into retirement. Many aren’t getting that opportunity. Even though the official unemployment rate is just 3% for older workers, the actual jobs environment is surprisingly bleak. Nearly eight million older Americans are out of work or stuck in low-quality jobs that offer little opportunity to prepare for retirement, a Wall Street Journal analysis of government data shows. The figures include the nearly 2.1 million Americans who are out of work, working part time because they can't find a full-time job or have stopped looking because they don't think anyone will hire them. Another 5.8 million Americans - or 23% of full-time, year-round workers ages 55 and older - are employed in what economists describe as 'bad jobs' that offer no health benefits and typically pay poorly....Some states are experimenting with ways to connect experienced job seekers with willing employers. The Southeast Michigan Community Alliance in Taylor, Mich., held its first 50+ job fair this spring with AARP Michigan. Job seekers’ qualifications were reviewed before the event to make sure they had the needed skills; 31 of them received job offers on the spot. Most participating companies were in the retail, hospitality and home health-care industries, and offered hourly positions that require applicants to spend the workday on their feet."

*Swiss America will be closed December 24-25 for Christmas*

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Gold last traded at $1,267 an ounce. Silver at $14.86 an ounce.

NEWS SUMMARY: Precious metal prices rose Thursday on safe-haven buying and fresh dollar weakness. U.S. stocks continued their decline after the Fed raised interest rates and said it would continue shrinking its massive $4.1 trillion balance sheet in 2019.

Gold: Worst & Best-Case Scenarios In 2019 -Forbes
"The dollar index has had one dominant trend this year - the uptrend. The greenback and gold have an inverse relation....Going into 2019, the yellow metal is likely to shine more as cracks have started to surface in the U.S. economy. The U.S. equity markets are on track to record the worst performance in a decade...The housing market, a leading indicator to gauge the economic health of the country, is showing some serious concerns. Business investment has dried up in the third quarter and effects of tax cuts by Trump administration have almost vanished. Can the U.S. economy end up in recession in 2019? Under the current circumstances, it may not be far stretched to say that if the recession doesn’t see the daylight in 2019, it is likely to see it in 2020....All in all, it is highly likely that we will see an uptrend for gold and factors such as feeble economic growth, escalation in the geopolitics in Europe, the Middle East and stronger threats to Trump’s presidency could drive the price way above the $1600 mark in 2019. However, a controlled Fed policy and a stable economic growth may only push the price towards $1400."

The Fed Is Panicking -Daily Reckoning
"There is growing consensus that the makings of a financial crisis of some sort is building - and could drop sooner rather than later...the belief is that something is wrong....Even though the Fed has been able to avoid another financial crisis the last decade, with quantitative easing (QE) policy - or what I call dark money - their 'toolkit' might not render us 'safe enough.' You see, the Fed manufacturers dark money that the markets have come to rely on. Through quantitative easing (QE) the central bank has accumulated a balance sheet that hit a high of $4.5 trillion of assets last year. By having purchased these assets with electronically created money, the Fed was able to keep rates at the middle and longer end of the yield curve low....The Fed knows it is currently in a catch-22....Here's something else you might not know: Two weeks ago, it even quietly increased its book of assets. That’s the opposite of the policy of unwinding, or selling its assets through quantitative tightening (QT), which is what Chairman Powell promised he would be doing. That’s another sign that the Fed is afraid of a possible new financial crisis. For more proof, consider that former Fed Chair, Janet Yellen, just did a 180 on her prior comments related to the possibility of another crisis....Companies are holding $9.1 trillion of debt now in contrast to the $4.9 trillion in 2007 before the last financial crisis. The financial system is more highly levered than they were prior to the last financial crisis."

BIS warns of seizure at heart of financial clearing system -Evans-Pritchard/Telegraph/GATA
"The pillars of the global financial system are fundamentally unstable which could lead to a frightening chain-reaction in the next crisis, BIS warns. Giant 'central counterparties' that clear the $540 trillion nexus of derivatives are vulnerable to failure in times of extreme stress. The Bank for International Settlements said CCPs could cause 'a destabilizing feedback loop, amplifying stress'. Recent market 'jolt' will be first of many as easy money era ends - says the world’s top watchdog....The rotten apple contaminates the healthy banks. A fire sale of assets spreads contagion. Banks may be forced to hoard liquidity to protect themselves. The BIS said 'balance sheet interlinkages' and what it calls the 'CCP default waterfall' could unravel with 'potentially system-wide effects.' It is just one of many late-cycle pathologies highlighted by the Swiss-based watchdog, the bank of the central banking fraternity and the high priest of orthodoxy. Another brutal week on Wall Street has brought these risks into sharper focus. The three key equity indexes in the United States are all in a full correction after falling over 10 percent from their peak....The Achilles' heel for the global economy is the surging U.S. dollar. The BIS says offshore lending in dollars by European, Japanese, and increasingly Chinese and emerging market banks has risen to $12.8 trillion....This web of dollar liabilities is coming under intense strain as the U.S. Federal Reserve drains liquidity, pushing up global lending rates. A worldwide dollar shortage is emerging. This is acting as tourniquet, tightening an international system built on dollar funding."

Americans are already returning holiday purchases -CBS News
"Holiday gifts should still be under the tree, yet returns are already in full swing. The advent of online shopping and hard-selling promotions by retailers had lots of consumers buying gifts for themselves, aided in their efforts by free shipping for deliveries and returns. That's according to UPS, which expects holiday returns will hit their peak on Wednesday, with an estimated 1.5 million packages returned. In years past, returns didn't really pick up steam until January, and UPS said it still expects another wave will have 1.3 million packages returned on the third day of the new year. Overall, UPS expects to deliver 800 million packages this holiday season. But consumers who starting buying online in the days before Black Friday are busy sending lots of stuff back, at a rate of a million packages a day this month, UPS said. Being able to return merchandise for free is an important part of shopping online for a majority of consumers, UPS said, citing its own research. And Marran said shoppers are changing their behavior as it becomes easier and cheaper to return merchandise: 'Consumers can buy multiple gifts, decide what they want to keep and give to their family and friends, and perhaps return the others, earlier in the season.'"

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Gold last traded at $1,248 an ounce. Silver at $14.70 an ounce.

NEWS SUMMARY: Precious metal prices held near 5-month highs Wednesday on dollar weakness. U.S. stocks turned negative following the Fed's decision to lift interest rates for a fourth time in 2018.

Gold Is Shining Again -Rush/Investing
"The recovery in gold prices from August lows is gaining momentum. On Wednesday, the precious metal has extended weekly gains to fresh mid-July highs marginally above $1,251 and holds in the positive territory, expecting fresh short-term drivers. It looks like gold is shining again, after a break of the aggressive bearish trend. The bullion’s appeal is rising due to a sell-off in the greenback as the American currency is on the defensive across the board amid the growing doubts in the Fed’s ability to proceed with monetary tightening in 2019. In this context, today’s FOMC meeting will define further direction for the greenback, gold and global financial markets in general. A potentially 'dovish' hike will depress the dollar even further. In this scenario, the precious metal could attract a more robust demand."

Good News About the Coming Crash -Bonner/Bonner And Partners
"The last leaves are falling from the trees. And the last days of December are counting down, like the quiet moments before an execution....If the stock market keeps sliding, a lot of problems will disappear - the trade war, the search for a chief of staff at the White House, the 'shutdown'… Nancy Pelosi, Trump. Who will care about any of this when the Dow loses 10,000 points?....Worried about inequality? Just let the correction do its work. The rich will be taken down a peg. On Friday, for example, the selloff took stock prices down by more than 2%. Since the whole stock market is valued at about $30 trillion, a 2% drop shaves about $600 billion off balance sheets. And that's in addition to the 10% or so they were already down. Or about $3 trillion in all. But hold on… there’s a long way to go. By our estimate, the rich have gained about $30 trillion in total (from their investments in stocks, bonds, real estate, rare artwork, and collectibles) from the fake money system and the manipulation of interest rates by the Fed. If the stock market gets cut in half (which we expect), that alone will take care of half the problem....Alas, it’s not just stock owners who take a beating. Stocks represent real companies. Companies have owners, bankers, suppliers, employees… and creditors. All of them lose. Employees are laid off. Bonuses are reconsidered. Expansion plans are shelved. Purchases are rescinded. Business implodes. And the weakest companies are unable to pay their debts. Then, of course, the whole credit industry gets the shakes. The weaker lenders collapse immediately. Stronger ones call in their loans - putting further pressure on the wobbly companies. But heck… it’s supposed to work that way. Panics, credit crises, and bear markets – like maggots on dead flesh – clean up market economies. And, still looking on the bright side, we personally will lose millions; but it will be worth it to see the dumbbell rich get what is coming to them. Stay tuned…"

Alan Greenspan: Investors should prepare for the worst -CNN Money
"Alan Greenspan says the party's over on Wall Street. The former Federal Reserve chairman who famously warned more than two decades ago about 'irrational exuberance' in the stock market doesn't see equity prices going any higher than they are now. 'It would be very surprising to see it sort of stabilize here, and then take off,' Greenspan said in an interview with CNN anchor Julia Chatterley. He added that markets could still go up further - but warned investors that the correction would be painful: 'At the end of that run, run for cover.'....'The volatility is a function of how we speak, think and feel - and it's variable,' he said. 'Unless you can somehow radically change human nature and how we respond, this is what you'll always get and have been getting. You have to count on it, if you're going to understand how the market functions.'"

When the White House Fights The Fed, The White House Wins -- Always -Forbes/Forbes
"The Federal Reserve backed off its plans for aggressive interest rate hikes next year after President Donald Trump relentlessly and personally bashed chairman Jerome Powell - a recent Trump appointee, no less. The Federal Reserve and its defenders stress the importance of its independence from outside interference....Our central bank has done a remarkable job over the years creating an aura that those who attack it are either ignoramuses or cranks outside the boundaries of respectable and responsible opinion. This achievement comes in the face of several major blunders, most notably the terrible inflation of the 1970s and early 1980s, and the lead-up to the crisis of 2008–09. Nonetheless, the reality is that if the executive branch pushes hard, the Fed backs off. It is not a fourth branch of government enshrined in the Constitution but a creature of Congress. The Fed's actual but hidden weakness has been a fact of life since its inception in 1913....The basic problem isn't the Fed's independence, but a true understanding that money is a measure of value and that it works best, as Alexander Hamilton well understood, when its value is fixed to gold."

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12.18.18 - "2019 Could be a Stellar Year for Gold"

Gold last traded at $1,251 an ounce. Silver at $14.73 an ounce.

NEWS SUMMARY: Precious metal prices rose Tuesday on safe-haven buying and a weaker dollar. U.S. stock indexes attempted a bear market rally, recovering a fraction of the steep losses of the prior trading session.

Why 2019 could be a stellar year for gold -Yahoo News
"Gold has gotten a boost over the past three months, rising more than 4%, as investors flock to so-called 'safe-haven' trades, and the commodity is headed even higher in 2019, according to strategists. 'Volatility has reemerged across markets generally - commodities, equities, etc. If that volatility persists, it will be key. It is going to push investors to perceived safe havens like gold,' Chris Louney, commodities strategist at RBC Capital Markets, told Yahoo Finance. Fears of an economic slowdown coupled with trade worries between the U.S. and China have sent the U.S. stock market tumbling since October. All three of the major indices closed in correction territory, or down more than 10% from their recent highs, on Friday....Mikhail Sprogis, Goldman Sachs precious metals analyst, said the firm believes safe-haven trades like gold will continue to rise next year, whether or not the economy actually slows down. 'Our bullish outlook is driven by the expectation of a pick up in 'fear' related investment demand for gold as the U.S. economy slows down and late cycle concerns mount.'....Goldman Sachs has an end of 2019 price target of $1,350 for gold, while RBC has an average 2019 forecast of $1,338."

"This Is A Bear Market" - Stocks Slump After Gundlach Unleashes Truth-Bombs On CNBC -Zero Hedge
"A sheepish Scott Wapner dared to ask DoubleLine's Jeffrey Gundlach an open-ended question about the stock market, and we suspect the response he got was far from what he wanted to hear. 'I'm pretty sure this is a long-term bear market for stocks...S&P is headed to new lows', 'We've had pretty much all of the variables which characterize a bear market.' Other highlights from Gundlach include: I think we'll ratchet up tariffs. 2019 is all about Capital preservation. Worst thing to do is herd into S&P passive fund. Gundlach sees bond yields still moving higher on supply. Mueller, House probes are a market negative. He sees a weaker dollar ahead....Additionally, Gundlach says the Federal Reserve shouldn’t raise interest rates when it meets this week, citing concerns about the bond market and expectations that a slowing economy may require policy reversals in 2020."

Cramer: The stock market is not safe; it's most treacherous in years -CNBC
"CNBC's Jim Cramer said Monday that the persistent sell-off in the stock market has gone beyond concerns about a slowdown in global economic growth and what the Federal Reserve will do on interest rates this week and next year. 'This was a soul-searching weekend for many of us because you left on Friday kind of in disbelief that the market could just fold. And it's not just worldwide slowing growth. It's not just fear of the Fed. But it's basically exhaustion,' Cramer said....'I think that there's a lot of people who say, 'I got to get out. I got to get out, because everyone else is getting out,' said Cramer. 'It's not a safe market. It's a treacherous market. This is the most treacherous market I've seen in a many a year.' The Fed, which meets Tuesday and Wednesday, is in a tough spot, Cramer said, reiterating that if central bankers don't raise rates they risk really scaring the market about the economy. Fed Chairman Jerome Powell should increase rates this week and then pause, the 'Mad Money' host said."

The Bubble’s Losing Air. Get Ready for a Crisis -Bloomberg
"The 'everything bubble' is deflating. The fact that it’s happening relatively slowly shouldn’t blind us to the real threat: The world is dangerously underestimating how hard it’ll be to deal with the fallout once it pops. Frothy markets can’t disguise the warning signs. The shift to tighter monetary policies in the West is putting pressure on global equity and real-estate values. Even more critically, it’s weakening credit markets. Over-indebted emerging markets face headwinds from rising borrowing costs and dollar shortages. Investors need to start focusing on how best to respond to a new crisis. The choices are more limited than many realize....Ultimately, central banks might have to resort to QE variations such as 'helicopter money.' Originally a thought experiment of Milton Friedman, the government would print money and distribute it to the public to stimulate the economy....There is already a crisis of trust - a democracy deficit - in many advanced economies, accompanied by rising political tensions....Governments that want to avoid that dystopian prospect need to address the key underlying problems now, before it’s too late."

America’s wavering housing market all depends on what Fed does next -Marketwatch
"The country’s housing market may have hit its peak...Housing inventory remains incredibly tight, meaning that buying a home is a very expensive and difficult proposition for many. And 2019 appears set to bring more of the same...Mortgage rates will continue to rise, causing home prices and sales to drop. 'I would still rather be a seller than a buyer next year,' said Danielle Hale, chief economist at real-estate website Realtor.com."

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Gold last traded at $1,251 an ounce. Silver at $14.75 an ounce.

NEWS SUMMARY: Precious metal prices rose Monday as the dollar slumped ahead of the Fed meeting. U.S. stocks fell after all three major U.S. indexes closed last week in correction territory for the first time since March 2016.

Gold firms as dollar eases, markets brace for Fed -CNBC
"Gold firmed on Monday as the dollar eased from near 18-month highs, adding to bullion's appeal among holders of other currencies, with investors looking to a U.S. Federal Reserve meeting for clues on interest rate developments next year. Markets have priced in a rate rise by the Fed at its Dec. 18-19 Federal Open Market Committee meeting, so the focus will be on how many hikes will follow in 2019, analysts said. 'The market is gearing up for price-friendly news this week from the Fed and later, from China's annual Central Economic Work Conference,' Saxo Bank analyst Ole Hansen said, referring to a closed-door gathering of party leaders and policymakers. 'Based on the data released on Friday, we can see the hedge funds are net long in gold for the first time in five months. So, they are gearing up towards a dovish Fed rate hike stance on Wednesday,' he said."

U.S. Stocks Need a Santa Claus Rally to Avoid a Losing Year -Wall Street Journal
"Investors hoping to avoid the first annual decline for major U.S. stock indexes since 2015 are dreaming of a Santa Claus rally....Such a year-end boost will likely be necessary if the S&P 500 is to avoid finishing in the red. It is down 2.8% this year through Friday. But trade tensions with China, slumping commodities prices and concerns about the Federal Reserve’s pace of interest-rate increases have forced investors to reassess the global growth outlook....Economists have scaled back their predictions for 2019, calling for two rate increases next year rather than the three they expected when surveyed last month. Any change in that sentiment would likely rattle the already volatile stock market. 'If the Fed flips back to being more hawkish, that would be the thing that derails this,' said Jeffrey Hirsch, editor of the Stock Trader’s Almanac...Santa's failure to deliver typically doesn't bode well for stocks heading into the new year. The last six times the rally didn’t materialize were followed by three flat years in 1994, 2004 and 2015, two bear markets in 2000 and 2008 and a downturn that ended in February 2016, according to Stock Trader’s Almanac."

U.S. recession risks jump, Fed rate hike expectations slump -Reuters
"The risk of a U.S. recession in the next two years has risen to 40 percent, according to a Reuters poll of economists who also found a significant shift in expectations toward fewer Federal Reserve interest rate rises next year. What has fueled concerns of a downturn is the flattening of the U.S. yield curve - with the spread between two- and 10-year note yields falling to less than 10 basis points, the smallest gap since the run-up to the last U.S. recession....The last time such a high probability appeared in a Reuters poll was in January 2008, just eight months before the collapse of U.S. investment bank Lehman Brothers, which brought on the Great Recession....'The combination of a Fed that does not think that inverting the yield curve is a problem (along with) a global outlook that is not likely to improve in a sustained manner, is likely to lead to a monetary policy error that will push the economy into recession,' noted Philip Marey, senior U.S. strategist at Rabobank."

The Bond Market Has Frozen: For The First Month Since 2008, Not A Single Junk Bond Prices -Zero Hedge
"Late last week, we reported that in the aftermath of a dramatic drop in loan prices, a record outflow from loan funds, and a general collapse in investor sentiment that was euphoric as recently as the start of October, the wheels had come off the loan market which was on the verge of freezing after we got the first hung bridge loan in years, after Wells Fargo and Barclays took the rare step of keeping a $415 million leveraged loan on their books after failing to sell it to investors....The reason the banks were stuck with hundreds of millions in unwanted paper is because they had agreed to finance the bridge loan whether or not there was enough demand from investors, as the acquisition needed to close by the end of the year....'This is clearly more than year-end jitters,' said Guy LeBas, a strategist at Janney Montgomery Scott. 'What we’re seeing now is pretty typical for end-of-credit-cycle behavior.'....The trouble lenders have faced in the leveraged loan market has mirrored the exasperation felt by investors in other asset classes."

Home builder confidence hits 3 1/2 year low as housing crunch worsens -Marketwatch
"The National Association of Home Builders’ monthly confidence index tumbled four points to 56 in December. The December decline took the sentiment index to the lowest since May 2015. It followed a breathtaking plunge from October to November and brought the full-year 2018 average for the index to 67, one point lower than 2017. The buyer traffic tracker fell two points to 43, its lowest level since March 2016....The November sentiment plunge was followed by a new-home sales report that was the lowest in nearly three years....'Customers are hesitating to make a purchase because of rising home costs,' the industry group said, adding that confidence was lowest in parts of the country where prices are highest."

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Gold last traded at $1,241 an ounce. Silver at $14.63 an ounce.

NEWS SUMMARY: Precious metal prices eased back Friday on profit-taking and a firmer dollar. U.S. stocks fell sharply after weaker-than-expected data in China and Europe exacerbated concerns of a global economic slowdown.

Gold - A Perfect Storm For 2019 -Seeking Alpha
"For gold bulls, 2018 was disappointing...Gold had to struggle against a rising dollar, whose trade-weighted index rose a net 3.7% over the same period, and as much as 9.4% from its mid-February low. Dollar strength has been driven less by trade imbalances and more by interest rate differentials....The world is awash with dollars to an extraordinary degree. The great dollar unwind is now overhanging markets, which will remove the principal depressant on the gold price. And when it begins, as a source of supply these hot-money dollars will be seen as the continuation of escalating supply, with the prospect of future US trade and budget deficits to be discounted....With the credit cycle turning and the addition of American tariffs, markets are at a growing risk of replicating the 1929-32 crash and the economic depression that followed. This time, instead of commodities and consumer products effectively priced in gold through a gold standard, they will be priced in fiat currency. Monetary policies will ensure liquidity is freely available to support the commercial banks, government spending and economic activity. This is a recipe for higher gold prices. Demand for physical gold continues to outstrip mine supply. In 2019, risk-weighting rules in Basel III open up the opportunity for commercial banks to augment their liquidity with allocated bullion, attractive to euro- and yen-based banks who face negative interest rates on short-term cash alternatives."

U.S. Stock Market Exodus Is Second-Biggest Ever, BofA Says -Bloomberg
"Investors rushed out of U.S. equity funds in the second-biggest weekly exit on record, according to Bank of America Merrill Lynch, as the market sell-off pushed traders to seek safe havens....The turmoil in stocks, which has erased as much as $4 trillion in U.S. equities since the end of September, continued this month as traders feared that a global economic slowdown will curb earnings growth and end the equity bull run....U.S. equities have fallen so much that the S&P 500 Index is now trading near the lowest valuation since early 2016. That's quite a contrast compared to a year ago, when the gauge was at the highest forward price-to-earnings ratio since 2002. The negative sentiment surrounding U.S. stocks showed no signs of dissipating on Friday as S&P 500 futures fell. Trade concerns were fueled by Apple Inc. saying a Chinese ban on sales of the iPhone will force it to settle a licensing battle with Qualcomm Inc., an outcome that may end up harming the country's smartphone industry."

Bitcoin Wasn’t a Bubble Until It Was -Wall Street Journal
"Bitcoin owners still holding on for dear life after an 82% decline are putting on a brave face, but there is no more denying that we have witnessed the popping of a classic bubble. Some believers in blockchain's vast potential agree and rue the gold-rush mentality. Others are in denial, characterizing the current rout as just another bump in the road for a transformative technology....Similar to the tech bubble, financially marginal companies could multiply their value through cryptocurrency association. Take Long Island Iced Tea Corp. The money-losing firm’s shares briefly surged by nearly 300% after it changed its name to Long Blockchain Corp. at the height of the frenzy last December. Buyers of bitcoin near the top weren't just overconfident - a hallmark of bubbles - but were dismissive of skeptics as Luddites who just didn’t get it. Bulls said the same thing in 1999 during the tech boom. The bitcoin bubble, following the housing bubble and the tech bubble, is the third in less than 20 years. Clearly, bursting bubbles don’t inoculate us against falling for another one."

Markets See the Gathering Downside That Powell Does Not -Real Clear Markets
"Though no one would ever state it outright...the Federal Reserve had utterly failed at every single thing it had tried....If ZIRP and QE were genius responses, how come things continued to go wrong? You never hear much about that nowadays, as much of a blackout as it was contemporarily....In 2017, they all said it was finally over. Globally synchronized growth was supposed to mean something, at least as a first perquisite for recovery aimed squarely at 2018. Those hopes have been blasted apart this year...Jay Powell is, or was, supremely confident about globally synchronized growth perhaps more than anyone this side of Mario Draghi. Both eurodollar futures and now US Treasury markets have called his bluff. There is and has been mild inversion in both. Markets see the gathering downside he would rather not admit is exceedingly possible. The President increasingly positions Jay Powell as scapegoat despite his (noticeably less frequent) claims of a domestic economic boom."

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Gold last traded at $1,247 an ounce. Silver at $14.85 an ounce.

NEWS SUMMARY: Precious metal prices held near 5-week highs Thursday despite a firmer dollar. U.S. stocks seesawed as investors digested the ongoing U.S.-China trade war creating rising market volatility.

Gold Is Still The More Stable Safe Haven Asset For 2019 -Streible/Kitco
"With fears of more volatility in stock markets ahead, investors could do well holding gold, which is still the reliable safe haven asset, said Phil Streible, senior market strategist at RJO Futures. 'Even if you look at bonds and interest rates, the volatility has been quite high in there. We’ve seen bonds tick up three, four, five handles within a short period of time. I think that gold has been a much better, a much more stable investment asset for a safe haven,' Streible told Kitco News."

Most CFOs see a U.S. recession coming by 2020 -CBS News
"Considering that major corporations have been busy shedding workers, it follows that corporate finance leaders see a U.S. recession ahead. Evidence of a slowing economy has been popping up, including recent large-scale cuts in head count by U.S. corporations such as General Motors and Verizon. Eighty-two percent of chief financial officers polled believe a recession will have started by the end 2020, and nearly 49 percent think the downturn will arrive sometime next year, according to the Duke University/CFO Global Business Outlook, released Wednesday. 'The end is near for the near-decade-long burst of global economic growth,' said John Graham, a finance professor at Duke's Fuqua School of Business and director of the survey. 'The U.S. outlook has declined, and moreover the outlook is even worse in many other parts of the world, which will lead to softer demand for U.S. goods.' Worst-case projections would see capital spending drop in 2019, accompanied by flat hiring, found the survey conducted Friday of more than 500 CFOs, including 226 from North America."

Big Tech's Reckoning May Be Imminent After All -New Republic
"Sundar Pichai and House Republicans probably went to bed on Tuesday feeling satisfied with the result of the Google CEO's testimony before the Judiciary Committee...he didn't have to spend much time talking about even more uncomfortable subjects, like his company’s aggressive data collection and user tracking. But there were moments during the hearing that should have kept Pichai up at night....Committee Chairman Bob Goodlatte picked up the baton, saying 'most Americans have no idea the sheer volume of detailed information' being swept up by the search engine’s data collection efforts, which 'would make the NSA blush.' This is a far cry from a simple charge of political bias. Goodlatte's remarks suggest that he's concerned about the company’s monopoly on search and near-monopoly on targeted advertising not because of some unfounded censorship allegation, but because of the sheer market power concentrated in one company....House Democrats were even more persistent in questioning Pichai about his company’s data collection and privacy policies - a sign of what’s to come from the Judiciary Committee under Democratic leadership....After Tuesday, the question is no longer whether Congress will enact regulation, but just how severe it will be."

Paypal is thriving by defying conventional wisdom -The Economist
"In Silicon Valley people are besotted by the latest thing, which is why techies rarely give a thought to PayPal, a digital-payments firm that turns 20 this month. What PayPal lacks in terms of its profile, it has made up for in performance...This year it is expected to facilitate digital payments worth around $582bn, roughly four times more than in 2012....As e-commerce continues to grow, many firms that help with digital payments will thrive, including Square in America and Ant Financial in China. 'The real war is the war on cash,' argues PayPal's boss, Dan Schulman. About 40% of transactions in America are paid for in cash so there is room to grow....Wars are long and grueling affairs."

It is a "grueling" war indeed. The government's (and now big tech's) "real" war on cash has been going on for over two decades now - with zero concern about stepping on your financial freedom or privacy. In fact, they thrive on stripping Americans of their constitutional right to use cash by incentivizing the voluntary surrender of your rights. Find out where this "secret war on cash" is headed in our special report on the subject. Request a FREE copy of THE SECRET WAR, PART II: Weapons of Cash Destruction.

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Gold last traded at $1,250 an ounce. Silver at $14.85 an ounce.

NEWS SUMMARY: Precious metal prices rose Wednesday on safe haven buying and a weaker dollar. U.S. stocks traded higher as investors digested upbeat news related to the ongoing trade war between the United States and China.

Look For Gold To Hit $1,400 In 2019 -BoAML/Kitco
"Investors looking for a commodity to be bullish on in 2019 should look at gold, according to the latest research from analysts at Bank of American Merrill Lynch (BoAML), which is overweight the precious metal. In a teleconference presentation last week, Michael Widmer, metals strategist at the bank, said that a weaker U.S. dollar, rising inflation and low real interest rates will drive gold prices higher next year. In its year-end outlook, the bank sees gold prices averaging the year around $1,296 an ounce with prices rising as high as $1,400 an ounce during the year....'We are moving into an environment that will be very supportive for gold,' he said. Along with a turning tide in U.S. interest rates and U.S. dollar strength, the bank sees growing financial volatility driving gold prices in 2019. The bank sees higher volatility as global liquidity continues to tighten....'In our view, gold prices could spike quickly to a $1,400/oz high next year if global markets perceive that the Fed is about to blink in its dual monetary tightening policy.' Looking outside the U.S., the bank sees weaker Chinese growth as a positive factor for gold as it will prompt the Chinese central bank to loosen monetary policy."

"Can Silver Be 2019's Star Metal?" asks Kitco.com. "Silver is like gold on 'steroids' and can potentially rally even more than the yellow metal in 2019", said Garrett Goggin, editor of GSA Silver. To get up to speed quickly on the potential of silver, read Swiss America's 2018 Silver Report.

Bernanke: U.S. has no system in place to deal with another financial meltdown -CBS News
"Wild swings in the stock market are fueling concerns over a potential new economic slowdown....It's been a decade since the last major economic crisis, when about 8.7 million Americans lost their jobs and some of the world's biggest banks collapsed. The men who worked behind closed doors in 2008 to stave off another Great Depression (they're nicknamed the "Three Amigos") are featured in a new documentary from HBO and Vice,"Panic: The Untold Story of the 2008 Financial Crisis. The film delves into what really happened during the financial market meltdown, a crisis caused by irresponsible mortgage lending and a subsequent bubble-burst in the housing market....'I felt very, very alone and very, very disconsolate,' former Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke told Alex Wagner. 'We really felt like we were kind of out on an island there.'....Wagner asked, 'Are you confident that if the next financial crisis was on America's doorstep, that this president and this Congress could handle it?' Bernanke said, 'I don't think we have a system in place to deal with the crisis once it happens...I think we have fewer fire hoses than we had even ten years ago.'"

Yellen warns of another potential financial crisis: 'Gigantic holes in the system' -CNBC
"Former Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen told a New York audience she fears there could be another financial crisis....'I think things have improved, but then I think there are gigantic holes in the system,' Yellen said Monday night in a discussion moderated by New York Times columnist Paul Krugman at CUNY. Yellen cited leverage loans as an area of concern, something also mentioned by the current Fed leadership. 'I do worry that we could have another financial crisis,' said Yellen. In the wake of the financial crisis, some agency regulatory powers were vastly expanded, but others, for example, the ability of the Fed to lend to an individual company in a crisis, were curtailed."

"Birds Of A Feather Get Plucked Together..." -Zero Hedge
"The important question now: 'Is the current uptick in correlations another sign of an impending bear market/recession, already signaled by faltering asset prices?'....We would offer up 3 points about rising correlations that are relevant regardless of market direction: #1. Higher correlations drive market volatility. When sectors move in closer lock step, diversification does less to limit daily price swings for the S&P....#2. Correlation tends to be 'sticky' absent an overwhelming catalyst. We’ve only had one dramatic shift in the last decade: the 2016 election of a Republican president and Congress....#3. High sector correlations are not necessarily negative for US stock returns. The 2010 – 2013 period of 0.83 to 0.88 average correlations saw the S&P gain 33.1%....Summing up: we see higher S&P sector correlations and incremental price volatility as a 'new normal'. Even a timely resolution in the US/China trade dispute will not likely change that. Too many other issues wait in the wings, from high financial leverage to worries over global economic growth and US corporate earnings."

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Gold last traded at $1,250 an ounce. Silver at $14.80 an ounce.

NEWS SUMMARY: Precious metal prices steadied Tuesday despite a firmer dollar. U.S. stocks attempted a rebound amid signs that U.S.-China trade relations could be improving.

Gold buoyed by prospects of slower Fed hikes -Marketwatch
"Gold edged higher Tuesday...as investors scaled back expectations about the pace of future interest-rate increases by the U.S. Federal Reserve. 'Gold prices, a barometer of economic and political news, are awaiting [the] Fed meeting Dec. 18-19 on rate hikes, which could have more dovish language and cautious approach to future hikes,' said George Gero, managing director in the senior consulting group at RBC Wealth Management. 'Brexit turmoil now also may be helping gold as a haven as postponing the vote is a sign of more headaches and headlines,' he added in a daily update. On Tuesday, global currencies were driven by news on the trade front. The U.S. and China have kicked off a new round of trade talks. That helped to lift some risk-sensitive currencies against the U.S. dollar."

Jerome Powell Is Between A Rock And A Hard Place -Daily Reckoning
"Fed Chairman Jerome Powell has recently indicated again that he planned to go ahead with another 0.25 rate hike when the Fed meets Dec. 19, which would be the fourth increase this year....What has emerged is a growing fear that the future could be gloomier than many analysts, governments and central bank leaders anticipated. There are now two major factors that could curtail growth in the U.S. One is the Federal Reserve itself. If the Fed were to continue raising rates too quickly, it would cause government, corporate and consumer debt payments to increase. Second, while President Trump's estimated $1.5 trillion in tax cuts have contributed to boosting U.S. GDP this year, the same impact is unlikely to carry on into next year....The Wall Street Journal reported the Fed is mulling whether to 'signal a new wait-and-see mentality' on interest rates at their upcoming meeting in less than two weeks...The fact is that markets remain addicted to low interest rates and central bank credit. But that just keeps the Fed trapped in a catch-22. It wants to 'normalize' rates as much as possible after years of heavy support to the markets, but it’s now seeing how markets react without that support. The Fed can tolerate weakness in the stock market, but it fears a complete collapse, which is a very real possibility. So Jerome Powell is between a rock and a hard place."

The Debt Threat to the Economy -Wall Street Journal
"If the economy continues to grow at the normal postwar rate, growth-driven federal revenues will overwhelm the costs of the tax cut, paying for virtually all of its originally projected 10-year revenue losses in just five years. But if Treasury borrowing cost normalizes to 3.2% over the next five years, the cost of servicing the federal debt will more than double, from $316 billion this year to $666 billion in 2023. If borrowing costs rose to 4.8% over the next five years, federal debt-servicing costs would more than triple, reaching $1.1 trillion in 2023. In that scenario, the cost of servicing the $7.5 trillion increase in the public debt incurred during the 2009-16 period alone would cost $362 billion - more than the current cost of servicing the entire federal debt....Every dollar the federal government doesn't spend is a dollar it doesn't have to borrow. The caps on discretionary spending should not be lifted in 2019, and any new spending program should require a real spending offset....It’s time to make peace on trade and wage war on the deficit."

Follow the money behind climate alarmism and carbon tax proposals -Washington Examiner
"Media coverage of the recently released National Climate Assessment suggests that unless policymakers intervene to restrict the use of fossil fuels, catastrophic climate change could extract a hefty cost from the economy...But the report rests on several faulty assumptions that fail to account for technological innovations, the impact of robust natural gas development, and the costs associated with climate change policies....Updated scientific research demonstrates there is no firm consensus on the role human activity plays in climate change and that natural influences are largely responsible for warming and cooling trends. The NCA relies on theoretical climate trajectories known as 'representative concentration pathways' that are developed by the U.N.'s Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change...Just last month, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change proposed a carbon tax of between $135 and $5,500 by the year 2030. An energy tax of that magnitude would bankrupt families and businesses, and undoubtedly catapult the world into economic despair....There ought to be an open and vigorous debate about the merits of carbon tax, how much it will cost, and what kind of benefits could accrue to the environment. But it's important to know that the funding standing behind the groups, organizations, and studies that make the case for a carbon tax have common denominators in the form of left-leaning foundations."

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Gold last traded at $1,251 an ounce. Silver at $14.67 an ounce.

NEWS SUMMARY: Precious metal prices steadied near 5-month highs on a firmer dollar. U.S. stocks traded sharply lower in a volatile session as banks and Apple led the decline.

"Bear Markets Everywhere": Over Half The World Is Now Down 20% Or More -Zero Hedge
"SocGen's Kit Juckes writes this morning that 'a week ago, market sentiment was optimistic after the G20 meetings in Buenos Aires. That's a reminder not to read TOO much into Monday morning markets!' Picking up on this, another SocGen strategist, Andrew Lapthorne, writes that 'having bounced back strongly post-Powell, equity markets slumped last week as the mood turned decisively bearish.'....Putting the ongoing carnage in context, stock-wise 52% of MSCI World companies are down by more than 20% from their 52-week high, but only 38% of the market cap....As 2008 taught us, when faced with a liquidity crunch, asset managers will paradoxically hold on to their losers in hopes of getting better prices, while dumping winners. Which is why all those traders who have stoically waited for the past ten years for a renaissance in value stocks may finally enjoy a moment in the spotlight, only to suffer an even bigger hit in the coming months if the global economy is indeed about to sink into a market-crushing recession or worse."

Time To Give Silver A Second Look -Seeking Alpha
"Silver prices have been battered on the backdrop of a higher US dollar, higher US Treasury yields and Fed rate hikes. The key question one might ponder would be where silver prices will be heading going forward? A more dovish tone from the Fed will presumably lead to limited upside potential for the US dollar coupled with the fact the net speculators are already heavily long US dollar. Furthermore, considering the tailwinds from fiscal stimulus fades, US growth is likely to slow into 2019 and the comeback of twin deficit worries suggest that US dollar currency appreciation will likely to reverse. Hence, given the inverse relationship between the US dollar and precious metals prices. A weaker USD will bode well for precious metals specifically silver bullion moving forward....From a Gold/Silver Ratio perspective, silver at present looks attractive with the ratio currently standing at 86.93 all-time high as shown below. The ratio between the two metals shows how many ounces of silver it would take to buy one ounce of gold, currently standing at 86.93 all-time high. The all-time low ratio was 13.76 back in the Jan 1980. As the saying goes, what goes up must come down. Hence, the upside potential for the Gold/Silver Ratio seems limited and the bottom line is that the current ratio signals that silver remains significantly undervalued which deserves a second look from investors."

We agree! Based on historical evidence, silver is poised for a big upward move. The extreme gold-to-silver ratios in 2003, 2009 and 2016 all signaled a major rally in gold and silver prices within a few months. Although past performance is no guarantee of future performance, most experts agree that adding some silver to your portfolio right now, in addition to gold, has a higher than average probability of growth in the coming year.

French "Yellow Jackets" Protest Macron and Gas Tax Hikes -Fox Business
Swiss America Chairman Craig R. Smith was a guest on Fox Business today discussing French President Emmanuel Macron's upcoming speech. The speech is expected to address measures to reduce taxes and boost purchasing power for France’s working classes who feel Macron's presidency has favored the rich. Mr. Smith believes French unrest is a preview of what other EU nations and the U.S. may face unless fiscal changes are made to curb higher taxes and rising government spending. Watch Fox interview

Would Democrats wreck America to win in 2020? -Ponte/WND
"Democratic analysts are frightened for their party’s future. Prior to the 2018 midterm election, voters had denied Democrats control of the House of Representatives, Senate and White House – which spells disaster for a party that buys its voters with taxpayer dollars and government favors. Democrats predicted a 'blue wave' in the 2018 midterms, but won only about 25 seats to barely claim control of the House of Representatives. More than 40 Republican members of Congress refused to seek reelection; without those GOP dropouts, Republicans almost certainly would have kept Democrats a minority in the House....So what must Democrats do to win in 2020? '[The] way you get rid of Trump is a crashing economy. So, please, bring on the recession,' says leftist HBO comic Bill Maher. 'Sorry if that hurts people … [but] a recession is a survivable event; what Trump is doing to this country is not.' If a prosperous economy could make Trump successful and get him re-elected, do not doubt that anti-capitalist Democrats will do everything in their power to economically ruin an America they cannot rule. Democrats have already made it clear they hate our capitalism, individualism, independence and our government-limiting Constitution. As globalists who favor world government, most Democrats would gleefully erase our borders, bankrupt our government with a giant tidal wave of illegal immigrants who vote Democratic, and cheer as our country disappears from their new brave new politically correct world."

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Gold last traded at $1,249 an ounce. Silver at $14.65 an ounce.

NEWS SUMMARY: Precious metal prices rose Friday on bullish sentiment and a weaker dollar. U.S. stocks fell sharply amid weaker-than-expected jobs report and rising China-U.S. trade tensions.

Gold hits 5-month peak as dollar slips after US jobs data -CNBC
"Gold prices hit a five-month peak on Friday and continued to trade close to that level as the dollar slid following weaker-than-expected U.S. jobs data that raised the possibility that the U.S. Federal Reserve might go slow on interest rate hikes next year. Spot gold was up 0.5 percent at $1,244.31 per ounce, having hit $1,245.60 per ounce earlier, its highest since July 13. With a rise of nearly 1.7 percent this week, gold looked set to clock its best gain since at least the week of Aug. 24....Gold, which is considered a safe investment during times of financial, economic and geopolitical uncertainty, has recovered about 7 percent from 19-month lows hit in mid-August. 'With increased volatility and geopolitical risk, macro asset allocation is becoming more gold-positive again while we believe much of the dollar's upward move is now behind us with rate hike expectations dropping,' analysts at BMO Capital Markets said in a note."

What the smart money is buying as the market tanks -CNN Money
"The Dow and S&P 500 are now both in the red for 2018, and investors have few places to hide as the stock market tanks. But savvy people are finding some pockets of safety. Gold, an investment that often shines during times of financial stress, is up nearly 4% so far in the fourth quarter while the S&P 500 and Dow have both plunged nearly 10% and the Nasdaq has plummeted almost 13%. The rise in gold prices has been good news for miners too. Newmont, which is in the S&P 500, is up nearly 10% since the end of September. The VanEck Vectors Gold Miners ETF has gained about 7%....Another clear sign investors are craving anything that can guarantee them a bit of a return: Investors keep rushing into bonds, despite the yield on the 10-Year Treasury falling to just 2.85%. The iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF has gained nearly 2.5% this year....Another area of the market has held up noticeably better as of late too: food and beverage stocks...So it looks like in these uncertain times for the markets and economy, eat, drink and be merry is one way for investors to profit."

Bear Markets March Across the Globe -Wall Street Journal
"In a sign of the breadth of the global selloff in stocks, Germany's main stock index fell into a bear market Thursday, the latest benchmark to have tumbled 20% or more from its recent peak. There is one thing some of global bear markets have in common: They have been caught up in global trade disputes....Other markets already in bear territory are home to companies exposed to recent trade fights between the U.S. and China. The Shanghai Composite Index, China's main stock benchmark, headed into a bear market in June, followed by Hong Kong's Hang Seng Index in September and South Korea’s Kospi in October. Domestic political uncertainty has hit European stocks hard. Italy's FTSE MIB Index fell into a bear market in October as the Italian government is trying to end a standoff with Brussels over the country's budget."

Are You Ready for the 'Inevitable' Clampdown on Tech and the Media? -Reason
"When Apple's CEO Tim Cook says 'the free market is not working,' bad things are coming. 'I am not a big fan of regulation,' Cook told Axios in an interview. 'I'm a big believer in the free market. But we have to admit when the free market is not working. And it hasn't worked here. I think it's inevitable that there will be some level of regulation... I think the Congress and the administration at some point will pass something.' Holy hell! Regulation of the tech industry and the larger economy (both of which are already pretty heavily regulated, if we're being honest) is inevitable? The free market isn't working? Well, maybe not quite as well as it used to for Apple, which has been a little droopy over the past several years in terms of killer new devices and mega-hits....I worry less about the market power of the FAANG companies than I do about the rise of a new industrial state in which powerful companies and powerful politicians team up to decide how best to run the world in which you and I live. As bad and stupid as Facebook's, Twitter's, and YouTube's attempts at policing themselves have been, I don't see things getting better if Sens. Dianne Feinstein (D–Calif.) or Charles Grassley (R–Iowa) get involved, do you? Maybe instead of freaking out all the time about how stupid media consumers are, we can start focusing on how to become more critical readers and listeners."

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Gold last traded at $1,240 an ounce. Silver at $14.44 an ounce.

NEWS SUMMARY: Precious metal prices rose Thursday on safe-haven buying and a weaker dollar. U.S. stocks skidded further into bear market territory as investors bailed out of stocks amid growing negative sentiment.

Why buy gold now? Because I don't know -Black/Sovereign Man
"From 2000 through 2012, the price of gold increased every year, rising from around $280 an ounce to nearly $1,700. It was an unprecedented run. Then, in 2013, gold took a nose dive, losing over 27% of its value. It was widely reported that the Swiss National Bank, the former bastion of monetary conservatism, lost $10 billion that year just on its gold holdings. As you probably know, central banks hold a portion of their reserves in gold. So that begs the question, did the Swiss National Bank actually lose $10 billion? It still had every ounce of gold in its vaults. And gold, after all, is money. Plus, the SNB wasn't holding gold to speculate...Right now, banks are buying up gold hand over fist. Central banks currently hold 20% of all the gold ever mined—33,000 metric tons. Why? Gold is for the I don’t knows. And right now, there are a LOT of I don’t knows....The day of reckoning is close....What do you do for the I don’t knows? You get some cheap gold while you still can."

Dow falls around 600 points as arrest of Huawei exec reignites trade worries -Marketwatch
"U.S. stocks were down sharply Thursday, after the arrest of a Huawei executive reignited trade worries, and as continued weakness in oil markets underscored concerns over global growth ahead of an OPEC meeting in Vienna Thursday. The Dow Jones Industrial Average DJIA fell 628 points, while the S&P 500 Index was down 57 points. The Nasdaq Composite Index tumbled 105 points. Investors have been rattled by news that the Canadian authorities had arrested Meng Wanzhou, the chief financial officer of Huawei Technologies, at the request of U.S. authorities for allegedly violating sanctions against Iran. The arrest, which was made on Dec. 1, comes as the U.S. has taken several steps to restrict the Chinese technology giant, trying to persuade international allies to do the same....China authorities reacted furiously, with the spokesperson of the Chinese Embassy in Canada demanding the release of the Huawei executive....The latest development comes amid an already shaky backdrop for trade relations between the U.S. and China. Doubts surrounding the weekend trade moratorium at the G-20 summit between the two sides and ominous developments in the bond market drove sharp losses for stocks Tuesday."

Gold Will Rally 22% in 2019 and Outperform Everything -The Street
"2019 will see the start of a new bull cycle for gold and push the metal up to $1,500 an ounce, said E.B. Tucker, director of Metalla Royalty & Streaming. 'To make big money in this market, you have to see the cycles. Nothing changes. We've had three big cycles in gold since 2000 and we're about to have another one,' Tucker told Kitco News. 'We're calling for $1,500 next year, that's a 22% increase in the price of gold, it'll be one of the best performing markets in a very, very volatile year for equities,' he said. On sentiment, Tucker said that low investor interest in gold could be good, as it signals that gold is not at overvalued levels like bitcoin and cannabis stocks were. 'You've seen things blow up. The cannabis bubble has popped and the stocks are declining. The bitcoin bubble has definitely popped, we called that last year, it's down 70% this year,' he said."

Big-money investors see the bull market ending in 2019 -CNBC
"The longest bull market run in history is coming to an end in 2019, according to the pros who handle Wall Street's big-money clientele. A survey of institutional investors show that 65 percent see a change coming, with the biggest threats being geopolitical tensions and rising interest rates, according to Natixis, which surveyed 500 managers of pension funds, endowments, foundations and the like. In addition to seeing the bull market stopping, they also anticipate the next financial crisis coming in one to five years....Institutional investors have been preparing for the end of the bull market for several years, David Goodsell, executive director of the Natixis Center for Investor Insight, said in an interview. 'The market is catching up to what they've been thinking about. I think they've been positioned for this for quite a while,' he said....'With wildcards everywhere (trade, geopolitics, deficits, protectionism), we have decided to focus on the macro scenarios that seem most likely and most relevant for equity market performance: (1) more Fed tightening, and (2) an upward bias to volatility,' Savita Subramanian, BofAML's equity and quant strategist, said in a research note."

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Gold last traded at $1,241 an ounce. Silver at $14.56 an ounce.

NEWS SUMMARY: Precious metal prices traded steady Wednesday on a flat dollar. The New York Stock Exchange and Nasdaq are closed today as the nation remembers George Herbert Walker Bush.

Ignore Stocks, Bonds Are SCREAMING "Danger!" -Zero Hedge
"The single most important market in the world is the bond market. Bonds are what permit Governments to remain solvent. When stock markets collapse, countries can experience recessions. When BOND markets collapse countries go BROKE. Which is why anyone who wants to protect his or her capital going forward should take note that the US bond market is inverting for the first time since 2007. This is a MAJOR warning that there is BIG trouble in the shadow banking system. Again, the last time this hit was in late 2006-early 2007, right before the world moved into the worst financial crisis in 80 years. Indeed, while everyone is celebrating the rally on Monday our Crash trigger remains in a critical 'sell.' The last time this triggered was right before the October meltdown. If you are not already preparing for this, NOW is the time to do so."

This Holiday Season, Make It Silver and Gold -Holmes/Forbes
"Monday evening marked the beginning of Hanukkah. The Jewish festival of lights commemorates the reclamation of the Holy Temple in Jerusalem from the Syrian-Greeks in the second century. Among many of the holiday’s well-known traditions, at least here in the U.S., is to give children chocolate coins. This arose from the centuries-old practice of parents giving real coins, or Hanukkah gelt, to their kids, who in turn were expected to give them to their teachers. I believe this is a beautiful custom. Whether you observe Hanukkah, Christmas, Eid al-Fitr, Diwali or any number of other religious holidays around the world, gifting your children and grandchildren coins of precious metals such as gold or silver could be made into a tradition in your own family. Take a look at silver. The white metal is on sale right now, trading at a little more than $14 an ounce. That’s the most affordable it’s been in three years....Bloomberg Intelligence Commodity Strategist Mike McGlone believes that the 'trade-weighted broad dollar is near a peak and silver a bottom… and the potential for mean reversion should outweigh continuing-the-trend risks. Silver, among the most negatively correlated to the dollar and positively to industrial metals, appears ready for a potential longer-term recovery.'....Gold is admittedly more expensive, trading just under $1,240 as of today. But there again, if you’re already planning to go all out on gift shopping this holiday season, you might as well make it something that’s truly memorable, holds it value and lasts forever."

The Economic Forecast for 2019: Less Growth and More Uncertainty -Wall Street Journal
"Most private economists expect U.S. growth to slow in 2019, in part because the initial impetus of fiscal stimulus is set to wane, meaning slower profit growth and more calls for a pause in Fed interest-rate increases. A growth slowdown is unlikely to please a president who made much of the growth pickup in 2018. President Trump has blamed his choice to run the Fed - Jerome Powell - for working against his policies to charge up the economy....The Fed’s decisions in 2019 will hinge on what happens next for inflation, rather than the pressure coming from the White House. If the Fed believes inflation has stabilized at 2%, it will pause the rate increases. Two big uncertainties hang over the domestic economic outlook. The first is fiscal policy. Don’t expect Mr. Trump’s tax cuts to be extended or widened in a divided Congress, but the outlook for spending policy is a big unknown....The second economic uncertainty involves business investment. Mr. Trump’s tax cuts and regulatory reductions were meant to encourage businesses to invest more in the U.S."

Charts suggest housing 'bubble trouble' with a tech meltdown 'yet to come' -Marketwatch
"Finding an affordable place to live in the tech-rich Bay Area isn’t easy these days, but it sure seems to be getting easier - a lot easier. That is assuming Wolf Richter of the Wolf Street blog has it right. 'It’s high time to unload houses and condos in Silicon Valley and San Francisco,' Richter wrote. 'Sellers are now flooding the market with properties.' In fact, according to data provided by the National Association of Realtors, he points out inventory has more than doubled from a year ago....The number of active listings has risen in each of the past three months, and now we’re at levels not seen since 2014...signaling 'bubble trouble' in the housing market, says Richter....The number of properties for sale with price cuts has exploded by over 400% year over year....The median asking price peaked in May was at $1,369,200 and has since fallen by nearly 10%, to $1,237,100....'Though share prices of local companies such as Google-parent Alphabet Inc., Apple, Facebook FB, and many others have taken a big hit since the summer, we’re still far from a classic tech meltdown,' Richter said. 'That is yet to come.' And then what happens to the housing market?"

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Gold last traded at $1,246 an ounce. Silver at $14.64 an ounce.

NEWS SUMMARY: Precious metal prices rose Tuesday on safe-haven buying and a weaker dollar. U.S. stocks fell as investors worried about a possible 2019 economic slowdown amid lingering worries about U.S.-China trade tariffs.

Gold Extends Climb With Dollar Sliding -Wall Street Journal
"Gold prices rose 0.6% to $1,246.70 a troy ounce on the Comex division of the New York Mercantile Exchange....The dollar and longer-term Treasury yields have fallen lately as investors weigh the possibility of a less aggressive path of interest-rate increases from the Federal Reserve and trade optimism from the U.S. and China. On Tuesday, the WSJ Dollar Index, which tracks the dollar against a basket of 16 other currencies, slipped 0.3%....Elsewhere in precious metals, most-active silver futures rose 1.3% to $14.695 a troy ounce. Platinum fell 0.6% to $805.60 and palladium added 1% to $1,177.50."

Is The Bull Back, Or Is It A "Bull Trap"? -Zero Hedge
"With smiles and much back-patting to go around, the G-20 meeting ended with a 'roar of applause but the accomplishment of nothing.' Nonetheless, as I also pointed out, the market did reach extremely oversold levels during the October/November correction which provided the necessary 'fuel' for a short-term rally. All the market needed was a 'reason' and Trump’s weakened stance with China over trade provided just that....The good news is that on Monday the market cleared the 50- and 200-day moving averages...However, in order to be validated, it must hold through the end of the trading week....If this rally fails sit will result in a continuation of the correction back to recent lows...Despite the recent oversold surge from lows, the primary backdrop of the markets has not changed markedly. The 'trade truce' was nothing more than that. China is not going to back off its position on 'Technology Transfers' as that is the key to their long-term economic future....The Federal Reserve is still reducing their balance sheet by $50 billion per month which has removed a primary buyer of U.S. Treasuries....Valuation remains extremely elevated despite the recent correction. The deterioration in credit is accelerating. Economic growth has likely peaked....There is little doubt the 'bullish bias' persists currently, and the volatility this past year has made managing money more difficult than usual. But that is the nature of markets and how topping processes work."

The Global Carbon Tax Revolt -Wall Street Journal
"France’s violent Yellow Vest protests are now about many domestic concerns, but it’s no accident that the trigger was a fuel-tax hike. Nothing reveals the disconnect between ordinary voters and an aloof political class more than carbon taxation. The fault line runs between anti-carbon policies and economic growth, and France is a test for the political future of emissions restrictions. France already is a relatively low-carbon economy, with per-capita emissions half Germany’s as of 2014. French governments have nonetheless pursued an 'ecological transition' to further squeeze carbon emissions from every corner of the French economy. The results are visible in the Paris streets....Undeterred, Mr. Macron pushed ahead with a series of punitive tax hikes to discourage driving. The protesters in Paris will be expected to pay much of the up to €8 billion annual tab for a minuscule global benefit - that’s how much tax revenue Mr. Macron thinks his levies will raise. This is preposterous in an economy that still has an 8.9% jobless rate (21.5% for the young) and will struggle to hit 2% annual GDP growth. Yellow Vests from less prosperous rural areas, who depend on cars for daily life, know it....The carbon tax revolt is world-wide. Voters in Washington state last month rejected a carbon tax that would have started at $15 per ton of emissions and climbed $2 a year indefinitely....After decades of global conferences, forests of reports, dire television documentaries, celebrity appeals, school-curriculum overhauls and media bludgeoning, voters don’t believe that climate change justifies policies that would raise their cost of living and hurt the economy."

Capitalism vs. socialism: economist George Gilder weighs in -Life, Liberty & Levin/Fox News
"MARK LEVIN, HOST: Hello America, I'm Mark Levin. This is 'Life, Liberty & Levin.' We have a great guest, George Gilder, how are you? GEORGE GILDER, CO-FOUNDER, DISCOVERY INSTITUTE: Great to see you, Mark.
LEVIN: You pioneered the formulation of supply side economics when you served as Chairman of the Lehrman Institute's Economic Roundtable. Program Director for the Manhattan Institute, you're the author of 'Men in Marriage,' 'Visible Man,' 'Wealth and Poverty,' which was a big book that had a big influence on me. 'The Spirit of Enterprise,' 'Microcosm,' 'Telecosm' and 'The Silicon Eye.' And now your newest book, 'Life After Google: The Fall of Big Data and the Rise of the Blockchain Economy.' All right, there's a lot to unravel here, but let's get started this way. Capitalism versus socialism. Explain.
GILDER: Well, capitalism derives from the Latin word for head, caput, and capitalism is the mind-based system and the key characteristic of the human mind is that we're creative, and as Albert Hirschman, the Princeton economist once put it, creativity always comes as a surprise to us, and if it didn't, planning would prevail and socialism would work. Creativity is the foundation of capitalism. And this is -- and socialism is based on planning. It's based on the assumption that we'd already know all we need to know in order to plan our future, and so it leads to tyranny, and that's really the difference. Liberty versus tyranny as someone once put it.
LEVIN: Isn't this the general problem with progressivism, across the board. That is they think they know all they need to know, and now it's just a matter of redistributing ideas, redistributing wealth, redistributing -- it isn't part of the problem, that's easy for people to understand whereas the future is difficult for people to understand.
GILDER: Learning is the heart of capitalism. Learning is finding out things you don't already know. And that depends on openness to creativity, to surprise, and surprise is really crucial to capitalism. You can't predict the products of a really creative process.
....LEVIN: Isn't that not grand irony, then, that the progressive mind-set claims that their decisions are based on science and knowledge, when in fact, it's not based on science or knowledge, it's based on an ideology?
GILDER: It's definitely based on doctrine and dogma. It's really -- in my new book, 'Life After Google,' I do a criticism of what I call Google Marxism.
LEVIN: What is Google Marxism.
GILDER: Well, Marx, his great error, his real mistake, was to imagine that the industrial revolution of the 19th Century, all those railways and dark satanic mills and factories and turbines and the beginning of electricity represented the final human achievement in productivity. So in the future, what would matter is not the creation of wealth, but the redistribution of wealth. Well, Google comes back today and says that it's search engines, it's machine learning, it's artificial intelligence, it's robotics, it's biotech is the ultimate human attainment, and in the future, most of us will be able to retire to beaches while Sergei Brynn and Larry Page of Google fly off to remote planets with Elon Musk in a winner-take all universe. Full program transcript

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Gold last traded at $1,234 an ounce. Silver at $14.37 an ounce.

NEWS SUMMARY: Precious metal prices shot up Monday on bullish sentiment and dollar weakness. U.S. stocks rose after President Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping agreed to a 90-day ceasefire in the trade war.

Economists doubt trade cease-fire will lead to actual deal -CNBC
"Wall Street traders may be exuberant on Monday over the decision to postpone the trade war between the U.S. and China, but economists across the marketplace aren't convinced the delay lead to a permanent solution. It will still be 'challenging' to find a compromise that all parties like, Goldman Sachs economist Alec Phillips wrote in a note to clients Sunday. 'We would expect an initial positive market reaction, the 'pause' prolongs the period of uncertainty around the eventual structure of trade relations between the two countries,' Phillips wrote. 'The specter of higher and broader U.S. tariffs remains, and the underlying issues clouding the trade relationship are deferred to further negotiations...we think the chance of a comprehensive deal that involves rollback of tariffs is slightly higher than before, but still not our base case - perhaps a 20 percent probability over the next three months,' the economist wrote."

As Fed Rethinks Path for Rates, Gold’s Poised to Jump in 2019 -Bloomberg
"Gold may be poised to rally as speculation mounts that the Federal Reserve will hit the pause button on interest rate hikes in 2019. After lift-off in late 2015 followed by a rise a year later, the central bank has since steadily raised benchmark rates and is widely expected to do so again this month. But the path after that is clouded after Chairman Jerome Powell said Wednesday rates are 'just below' estimates of the so-called neutral level, which markets took to mean a softer stance than previous comments. It was 'getting pretty obvious that at some point Powell would have to flinch,' said Trey Reik, senior money manager at the U.S. unit of Sprott Inc., which oversees $7.6 billion. 'Once you get to the consensus view that the Fed may be done, the dollar may come under severe pressure. Gold will erupt.' Goldman Sachs Group Inc. recommends an outright long gold position into next year. 'If U.S. growth slows down next year, as expected, gold would benefit from higher demand,' analysts including Jeffrey Currie said in a Nov. 26 note. 'If people get a sense that unemployment’s going up, heaven forbid, we’re going to see great volatility in 2019, that’s going to be a cue to sell the dollar, and that’s going to be a cue to buy gold in much bigger size.'"

FAANG Bubble Warning, And The Subsequent Trillion Dollar Wipeout -Vident Financial
"We all knew that bears had big fangs, but few people anticipated how much the FAANGs would end up having such a big bear market. The collapse of those companies has been sudden and dramatic. Sudden, dramatic… and surprising, though it should not have been. For five years US growth stocks outperformed value stocks. This means that for half a decade the bull market depended on expensive stocks getting more expensive. During this time period, FAANG stocks were the driver of growth stocks, which means that the bull market depended on the most expensive of the expensive, continuing to get more expensive....The point of having principles is to help you remember something when everyone else seems to have forgotten it. The other point of principles is to get you to do something when all emotional pressure is against it....Looking at the FAANGs alone, the loss from recent peak to current (as of this writing), those five companies alone have wiped out almost one trillion dollars in value. That's bad news for investors who chose to invest in those stocks. But it's also bad news for almost everyone who simply decided to invest in a 'diversified' index, since the big money indices were heavily concentrated in these stocks. That's the problem when you don't consciously invest according to set principles, you generally end up drifting with the currents, which is really easy to do, right up until you reach the waterfall."

American Exceptionalism May Be Ending - at Least in Stocks -Wall Street Journal
"Recent choppy trading in U.S. stocks has revived a years long debate: Are the best days of the U.S. bull market over?....Worries about rising interest rates, trade tensions with China, slumping oil prices and peaking corporate earnings have slammed U.S. stocks over the past two months....'The highest priority for the Chinese authorities at the moment is to stabilize their economy,' said Aninda Mitra, Singapore-based senior sovereign analyst at BNY Mellon Investment Management...'My concern is that at the end of 90 days, the U.S. will go back to feeling aggrieved,' Mr. Mitra said....'We do not own U.S. domestic stocks, as the market is significantly overvalued' compared with other countries, said Jacob Mitchell, portfolio manager of the Australia-based Antipodes Global Fund...Mr. Mitchell said he was considering shorting, or betting against, stocks closely tied to the health of the U.S. economy, like retailers and transportation companies, without naming specific targets."

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