1.28.16 - FINANCIAL FEAR IS IN THE AIR
Gold last traded at $1,116 an ounce. Silver at $14.23 an ounce.
NEWS SUMMARY: U.S. stocks rose in volatile trading Thursday boosted by a sharp rebound in oil prices. Meanwhile, precious metal prices leveled off on profit-taking despite a weaker dollar.
Gold Rises on Equities' Retreat, Lower Dollar -Fox Business
"Gold rose 2 percent on Wednesday, benefiting as global equity markets fell to 2-1/2-year lows and oil prices continued their relentless slump to a 13-year low, leading other commodity markets broadly lower....Global equity markets were on pace for one of the most dismal monthly performances on record, while the dollar fell to a more than one-year low against the Japanese yen, but flattened against six major currencies....Gold, often seen as an alternative investment during times of financial uncertainty, benefited from the risk-averse sentiment in markets along with other safe-haven assets such as the yen."
The Timeless Truth About Gold & Silver gives readers a BIG-picture overview of the seven timeless truths about gold and silver that you need to know in 2016.
Did the Fed make a huge mistake? -Washington Post
"It hasn't just been stocks selling off 10 percent to start the year. It has also been bonds saying that they don't think the Fed will come close to hitting its target of 2 percent annual inflation anytime in the next 10 years....It's generally not a good thing when the stock market says you might have to start cutting rates right after you started raising them....So will the economy fall into recession? On the one hand, it's hard to see how the economy could be heading that way when it's been adding an average of 284,000 jobs the last three months....On the other hand, though, things still seem fragile enough that it wouldn't take a lot of bad news to turn our slow-and-steady recovery into none at all....If the recovery does come to a premature end, then, it won't be because of low oil prices or China or whatever else you might hear. It will be the same old story: a Federal Reserve that underestimated how much it had already tightened policy, and overestimated how strong the economy really was."
Why economists are starting to use the ‘R’ word again -Financial Post
"Big stock market declines are often lead indicators for recession, and global markets are heading into their last week of trading for the month with the risk of seeing one of their biggest ever January declines. Despite a big bounce in markets Friday, which saw the S&P 500 rise two per cent, fear is in the air. Bank of America Merrill Lynch economists said in an update Friday that they now see a 20 per cent chance that the U.S. economy will slip into a recession this year, up from the 15 per cent chance they predicted in December....The rising chance of recession is due to three indicators that have turned negative in recent months: Industrial production, corporate profits and the U.S. stock market are all sharply down, and in past decades, a uniform drop among all three have tended to signal economic contraction."
In Swiss America's 2016 RIGHT ON THE MONEY newsletter and audio CD, chairman Craig Smith explains why we never really escaped the so-called "Great Recession" of 2008. Official government statistics masked the terrible truth that the American economy did not recover.
Red China Ponzi Ticking -Stockman/Daily Reckoning
"In short, there is an economic and financial trainwreck rumbling through the world economy called the Great China Ponzi. In all of economic history there has never been anything like it. It is only a matter of time before it ends in a spectacular collapse, leaving the global financial bubble of the last two decades in shambles....China is on the cusp of the greatest margin call in history. Once asset values start falling, its pyramids of debt will stand exposed to withering performance failures and melt-downs. Undoubtedly the regime will struggle to keep its printing press prosperity alive for another month or quarter, but the fractures are now gathering everywhere because the credit rampage has been too extreme and hideous....It is downright foolish, therefore, to claim that the US economy is decoupled from China and the rest of the world. In fact, it is inextricably bound to the global financial bubble and its leading edge in the form of red capitalism."
1.27.16 - GOLD ADVANCES AS FED BACKPEDALS
Gold last traded at $1,115 an ounce. Silver at $14.44 an ounce.
NEWS SUMMARY: U.S. stocks fell sharply Wednesday after disappointing earnings from Apple and Boeing as well as dovish Fed comments. Meanwhile, precious metal prices rose near 3-month highs on a weakening dollar following Fed statements.
Fed Backpedals, Hints At Policy Error -Zero Hedge
"Treading a fine line between losing all credibility and exposing their total devotion to the stock market, it appears The Fed is maintaining its delusion that everything will be fine as they unwind the largest and most experimental monetary policy of all time, and yet for the first time we get proof that the Fed admits it made an error by hiking into a slowing economy: 'labor market conditions improved further even as economic growth slowed late last year.'"
As Craig Smith and Lowell Ponte have pointed out in their last six books and numerous white papers, the Federal Reserve's zero interest rate policy has created near-zero economic growth, near-zero investment returns and a growing world of mispriced assets. Learn more by reading The Biggest Bank Heist in History and What's Next For The Dollar?
Dovish Fed Sends Gold Higher -Seeking Alpha
"Gold and US real rates have long had an inverse relationship. Gold rallied to all-time highs while monetary policy was being made historically accommodative through quantitative easing. Financial market mayhem has now made it highly unlikely that there will be more hikes in the medium term, which means that gold has no catalyst drive it lower. Instead, we believe that gold is in fact likely to have a major bullish catalyst this week: The Fed....If the Fed releases a dovish statement, as we expect that they will, then the rally in gold is likely to be substantial. Adding to this bullish effect from the Fed is the fact that gold is underpriced relative to bonds at this point."
We agree. Owning physical gold is the best and simplest way to hedge yourself against the economic realities we are facing in 2016. Please, don't wait any longer to discover The Timeless Truth About Gold & Silver.
Feckless Fed Can't Stop 20% Correction -HedgeEye
"In this no punches pulled excerpt from The Macro Show today, Hedgeye CEO Keith McCullough explains why regardless of what the Fed says today, he still thinks we're headed for a 20% or more correction in the S&P 500. 'No matter what the Fed gives you today, they're not going to give you economic growth....But the bigger question here is what happens when investors realize that central planners cannot arrest economic gravity? The answer: People start to sell because profits are slowing. That's the most obvious call. Whether you look at Boeing or Apple this morning, profits continue to slow. And if profits continue to slow for two consecutive quarters, the S&P 500 is most likely to be around 1700. That's a 20% correction from the highs."
In Swiss America's 2016 RIGHT ON THE MONEY chairman Craig Smith explains why more unintended consequences lie ahead in 2016 for the financial and stock markets as the Fed's failed experiment in financial repression and fiat stimulus is finally exposed.
Market rout could blow Fed off course if consumers blink -Reuters
"Federal Reserve officials are playing it cool for now, but roughly $2.5 trillion of stock market value wiped out in the past three weeks and a possible consumer pullback could throw the Fed off its course of gradual interest rate hikes....Fed research and other studies estimate that up to 6 percent of any drop in household net worth gets passed through and results in less spending. It means that unless the market recovers soon, upwards of $150 billion in consumption will be lost in coming months - a drag of close to 1 percent of gross domestic product."
China Warns Soros Against Currency War: "You Cannot Possibly Succeed, Ha, Ha" -Zero Hedge
"George Soros may have broken the BOE and may well have been at least partially to blame for the Asian Financial Crisis, but he will not win an FX battle with the PBoC. At least that’s Beijing’s message to the billionaire, as conveyed via a characteristically hilarious 'op-ed' in the People’s Daily entitled 'Declaring war on China’s currency? Ha ha'. Yes, 'ha, ha.' Although there’s nothing funny about the $1 trillion in capital that fled the country in 2015 on the heels of the PBoC’s bungled effort to 'manage' a controlled devaluation of the yuan....Although Soros didn’t specifically mention either the RMB or the HKD, he did indicate he is betting against Asian currencies in an interview with Bloomberg TV last week and that, apparently, was cause for Beijing to issue a stern warning."
1.26.16 - U.S. DEBT PICTURE WORSENS
Gold last traded at $1,121 an ounce. Silver at $14.52 an ounce.
NEWS SUMMARY: U.S stocks rebounded Tuesday as oil prices rose above $32 a barrel ahead of the Fed meeting statement Wednesday. Meanwhile, precious metal prices extended gains, rising 1% on safe haven buying and a weaker dollar.
S&P 500’s dead-cat bounce remains underway -Marketwatch
"The U.S. markets’ recovery attempt remains underway with Tuesday’s firmly higher start. Still, the January bounce remains technically lackluster - as measured by volume and breadth - and the rally attempt’s sustainability remains an open question. Meanwhile, the Dow Jones Industrial Average DJIA, has staged a lukewarm rally from the January low....Looking ahead, the Federal Reserve’s next policy directive is due out Wednesday, and the markets’ response should add color to the backdrop."
To understand why one of the biggest financial trends this year includes the need for a major U.S. stock market correction, request a free copy of Swiss America's 2016 RIGHT ON THE MONEY newsletter and CD.
Talk of Fed 'policy error' intensifies -Seeking Alpha
"Fund managers that were relaxed about slightly tighter monetary policy last month are wondering whether that was complacent, as concerns surface over whether they're now operating without the safety net they had grown attached to during the post-financial crisis....'It is reasonable for investors to wonder whether Fed's December rate hike was a policy error,' admits Bob Michele, chief investment officer of JPMorgan Asset Management. 'Historically the Fed has raised rates because either growth or inflation was uncomfortably high. This time is different - growth is slow; wage growth is limited; deflation is being imported.'"
WE HAVE SEEN THE FUTURE AND IT LOOKS LIKE BALTIMORE: AMERICAN DREAM VS. PROGRESSIVE DREAM explains why the Fed's zero interest rates have created 'Unreal Economics' which put the U.S. economy and banking system at serious risk.
Feds foresee $30 trillion debt, blame tax hikes and Obamacare -Washington Times
"The federal government will be flirting with $30 trillion in debt within a decade, the Congressional Budget Office reported Monday, blaming an aging population, new spending and tax cuts approved on Capitol Hill, and the growing burden from Obamacare for erasing the progress Washington had made over the past few years. Analysts said Obamacare will chase more workers out of the labor force over the next five years, adding pressure to an economy still struggling to spring to life more than seven years into the Obama recovery....Looking decades into the future, the picture only gets worse, the CBO said."
Gold at 2-month high, 'this time is different' -Financial Times
"Happy news for gold bugs. Last week, the yellow metal was looking set to make this January its best month in a year. There’s no stopping it yet. The price of precious metal has surged 4.9 per cent to $1115.20 an ounce so far this year, a two-month high. Known for its haven status, it seems gold has regained its status as a go-to investment option amid the recent market turmoil. RBC Capital Markets, reckons 'this time is different' for gold fans who have been frustrated in recent months. In its words, gold is 'building a fundamental base that should lead to higher prices.'"
Gold prices are still at bargain levels today. Now is a perfect time to add the weightiness of physical gold to your portfolio for safety and growth in 2016. Read The Timeless Truth About Gold & Silver.
1.25.16 - VOLATILITY BOOSTS GOLD
Gold last traded at $1,105 an ounce. Silver at $14.25 an ounce.
NEWS SUMMARY: U.S. stocks drifted lower again Monday as oil price volatility lead investors to sell. Meanwhile, precious metal prices rose on safe haven buying and a weaker dollar.
Gold in Fashion After a $15 Trillion Global Selloff -Bloomberg
"The $15 trillion rout in global equity markets since May is reawakening the lure of gold for investors seeking safety. Hedge funds more than doubled their net-long position in bullion last week, just three weeks after they were the most-bearish ever. Investor holdings of gold through exchange-traded products are expanding at the fastest pace in a year, and the value of the ETPs has jumped by $3 billion in 2016....'People have become complacent about risks, whether it’s macroeconomic and geopolitical,' said George Milling-Stanley, the Boston-based head of gold investments at State Street Global Advisors, which oversees $2.4 trillion. 'What’s out of fashion may be coming back. That atmosphere of people feeling completely calm and untroubled, I think, is starting to go away. Gold is a very good risk-off trade, and I think people are starting to look very, very carefully at the risky positions that they have on a number of other markets.'"
Truth is gold is never out of fashion for those who understand its unique value as portfolio wealth insurance. Financial fads come and go, but gold stands the test of time. Still not sure? Read The Timeless Truth About Gold & Silver.
Oil, Volatility & Old Wall Storytelling -Hedge Eye
"No, last week's two-day rally was not a sign that the equity crash bottomed out. Heightened volatility should continue to ravage financial markets. Here's analysis from Hedgeye CEO Keith McCullough in a note sent to subscribers earlier this morning:'... After a 2-day bounce in oversold beta all of the bottom callers came back, but day 2 of that came on one of the lightest US Equity Volume days of the year (-9% vs 1-month average). Front-month VIX didn’t come close to breaking any lines of support.' On a related note, Oil volatility is ramping too, as crude prices continue their downward descent this morning....Keep your head up out there and beware of Old Wall's shape-shifting storytelling."
Corporate tax cut would stimulate economic growth -Washington Times
"Everyone’s blaming the oil price collapse and China’s sliding economy, for the rout of the stock market these first two weeks of 2016. That’s part of the story, but there may also be a policy explanation for the bearish sell-off. Call it the Bernie Sanders effect. In the Democratic presidential primary debate last week between Hillary and Bernie, the race was on to see which could raise taxes and punish businesses more....What could be done right now to stimulate growth, investment and investor confidence almost immediately? The answer is a business tax rate reduction. Pass a rate cut to 15 percent, with full capital expensing and a 5 percent voluntary repatriation tax on the $2 trillion owned by U.S. multinational firms that is parked abroad to avoid the high corporate tax."
In WE HAVE SEEN THE FUTURE AND IT LOOKS LIKE BALTIMORE: AMERICAN DREAM VS. PROGRESSIVE DREAM Craig and Lowell show how Progressives hijacked the Democratic Party and, through anti-business taxes and regulations, are ruining the American economy through “Donkey Drag;” the fear of expropriation that businesses now feel about investing and hiring more workers. The mere existence of a major Progressive Party threatens, damages and weakens America’s free market economy and future.
Obama annuity push continues to vex firms -Philly
"President Obama's plan to clarify the fees that agents collect and the risks that savers take when they buy annuities continues to rile the life-insurance industry, which manages more than $5 trillion in annuity accounts, nearly a quarter of U.S. retirement money. 'Assuming that the proposal was adopted and implemented as is, we would guesstimate that annuity sales might be as much as 70 percent lower' at Lincoln National Corp., the Radnor-based life insurer that is a leading annuity-sales and retirement-account provider, stock analyst Steven D. Schwartz, of Florida-based Raymond James & Associates, told clients in a report Friday....Agents, many of whom sell annuities only part time, fear that means they will be more likely to be sued or punished by regulators for recommending investments that a saver complains about years after a sale."
Wal-Mart: Came, Conquered, Now Leaving -Bloomberg
"The Town’n Country grocery in Oriental, North Carolina, a local fixture for 44 years, closed its doors in October after a Wal-Mart store opened for business. Now, three months later - and less than two years after Wal-Mart arrived - the retail giant is pulling up stakes, leaving the community with no grocery store and no pharmacy. Oriental is hardly alone. Wal-Mart Stores Inc. said on Jan. 15 it would be closing all 102 of its smaller Express stores, many in isolated towns, to focus on its supercenters and mid-sized Neighborhood Markets....Renee Ireland Smith, who ran Town’n Country, said the store immediately saw sales fall by 30 percent once Wal-Mart opened in May 2014....'They ruined our lives,' said Smith of Wal-Mart. 'They came in here with their experiment and ruined us.'"
1.22.16 - VOLATILE EQUITIES OR STABLE TANGIBLES?
Gold last traded at $1,096 an ounce. Silver at $14.05 an ounce.
NEWS SUMMARY: U.S. stock prices rose Friday on the heels of a 7% oil price rebound and upbeat housing data. Meanwhile, precious metal prices were steady despite an uptick in U.S. dollar index.
"Is The Bottom In?" - BofA Says "No!" -Zero Hedge
"On Wednesday, as the Dow Jones plunged by over 550 points and the S&P dropped by 15% from its all time highs seen last summer, many speculated - most notably Tom DeMark - that the relentless selloff had finally hit an 'interim low', and was due for a rebound as much as 8%. Events since then have so far validated this forecast. However the one question on everyone's lips, is whether aside from a 'interim low', was Wednesday's flush the market's lows for the foreseeable future, and certainly for the first quarter....the Q1 lows are not in....Summarizing BofA's chief investment strategist: enjoy the relief rally, it won't last."
2016 equity casino is officially open -HedgeEye
"Jumping right into it in this morning's Early Look, Hedgeye U.S. Macro analyst Christian Drake sums up yesterday's wild market movements from Japan to Europe to U.S. He sums it up in one sentence: "The 2016 equity casino is officially open." Agreed. So, before the perma-bulls get too excited about yesterday's bounce, take a look at year-to-date global equity performance....The reality is that volatility is just starting to ramp. We reiterate: Sell on strength..."
The common sense approach to reducing portfolio risk and expanding portfolio growth is to 'buy low, sell high'. With some experts calling for a major bear market in the overvalued equity markets in 2016 - based on the worst start of a new year in a century - why not take some profits off the table to buy some tangible wealth insurance like GOLD? To read more about our time-tested market perspectives, request a free copy of RIGHT ON THE MONEY.
Gold; ‘It’s Doing a Good Job Right Now’ -Axel Merk/Kitco
"Gold has been doing exactly what it should be doing, says Axel Merk of San Francisco-based Merk Investments. ‘Gold has done a good job right now. It is a diversifier and the correction in the equity markets is far from over, so gold will do well,’ he says in an interview with Kitco News Friday....Merk explains, ‘I like gold because I don’t think we can have positive real interest rates – which ultimately is a competitor to gold.’ Merk also adds that he is waiting for the U.S. Fed to ‘acknowledge’ that it cannot pursue a hiking cycle, at which point, ‘gold will rise in earnest again.’"
We agree with Axel Merk; gold has served as a stable form of wealth insurance in 2016 while debt-based assets and equities are being tossed around by geopolitical events, China fears and collapsing oil prices. Once the reality of the Fed's inability to raise interest rates higher is clear, gold prices will rise further. Now is the time to rediscover gold - the only asset which creates investor confidence (and peace of mind) in a world full of assets which must rely on investor confidence. Read The Timeless Truth About Gold & Silver.
Oil Rebounds After Biggest Jan Fall in 25 Years -Fox Business
"Oil soared nearly 8 percent on Friday as a cold snap boosted demand for heating oil and investors took advantage of the lowest prices since 2003 to close out some of their more profitable bets on price declines....But it has stopped the oil price heading toward a near-17 percent drop in January, the largest slide in the first month of the year in at least a quarter of a century....But few in the market believe oil will be able to extend its gains much further, given the overwhelming bearishness of investors and the fact that oversupply looks set to persist."
American Exceptionalism and the 2016 Campaign -Real Clear Politics
"Contrasting positions on American exceptionalism go to the heart of what distinguishes the 2016 Republican presidential field from its Democratic counterpart. However much they disagree among themselves, the pronounced tendency among Republicans—particularly Ted Cruz and Marco Rubio—is to celebrate the spirit and forms of constitutional self-government that have historically set America apart. In contrast, Hillary Clinton and Bernie Sanders, like President Obama, are inclined to call attention to America’s flaws and failures stretching back to the nation’s founding....Progressive determination to deny American exceptionalism is more in harmony with the temper of the times than conservative dedication to distinctive constitutional fundamentals. That’s because democratic beliefs and habits promote unease with the very notion of exceptionalism."
Restoring a proper public understanding of American exceptionalism has been the central premise in the last several books by Craig R. Smith and Lowell Ponte. Read WE HAVE SEEN THE FUTURE AND IT LOOKS LIKE BALTIMORE: AMERICAN DREAM VS. PROGRESSIVE DREAM for the keys to restoring the American Dream.
1.21.16 - KNOWING WHAT'S NOT TRUE
Gold last traded at $1,098 an ounce. Silver at $14.09 an ounce.
NEWS SUMMARY: U.S. stocks traded higher Thursday as oil prices bounced from multi-year lows and the European Central Bank raised hopes of more economic stimulus. Meanwhile, precious metal prices consolidated recent gains despite a stronger U.S. dollar.
SOROS: 'EU is on the verge of collapse’ -Marketwatch
"Billionaire prophet of doom George Soros said the European Union is on the 'verge of collapse' as it faces five or six crises at once. 'The Greek crisis taught the European authorities the art of muddling through one crisis after another. This practice is popularly known as kicking the can down the road, although it would be more accurate to describe it as kicking a ball uphill so that it keeps rolling back down,' Soros said in an interview with The New York Review of Books....Soros also had some gloomy thoughts about China, the world’s second-largest economy. 'China is responsible for a larger share of the world economy than ever before and the problems it faces have never been more intractable,' he said."
Why are politicians so ignorant about economics? -Stossel/Fox News
"Politicians are so ignorant about economics. On his blog, Cafe Hayek, George Mason University professor Donald Boudreaux says his main job is showing students that much of what they believe about economics is wrong. I wish he taught presidential candidates....Helping some American companies by restricting foreign imports, as Donald Trump vows to do, sounds nice, but you can’t restrict goods available to American consumers without reducing competition. Protected from competition, companies get lazier, less productive. They innovate less. Prices rise. Hillary Clinton’s minimum wage will help some workers, but overall, it should be obvious it’s a jobs killer....But it’s just basic economics: If you increase the price of something, people buy less of it. That applies to workers hired, not just goods."
Mark Twain’s observation helps explain why economic policy decisions are often so bad. Sadly it’s not just the politicians who are deeply misguided, the public too often believes what is simply not true about the economy and free market. To read our market perspectives, request a free copy of RIGHT ON THE MONEY.
America’s Best Days May Be Behind It -New York Times
"Americans like to think they live in an era of rapid and unprecedented change, but this kind of comparison - pitting the momentous changes of the mid-20th century against the seemingly more modest progress of our present era - raises a critical question about the nation’s future prosperity. What does this portend for our well-being over the next half century? Has technological progress slowed for good? The idea that America’s best days are behind us sits in sharp tension with the high-tech optimism radiating from the offices of the technology start-ups and venture capital firms of Silicon Valley. But it lies at the heart of the current political unrest. And it is about to elbow its way forcefully into the national conversation."
In their latest book, WE HAVE SEEN THE FUTURE AND IT LOOKS LIKE BALTIMORE: AMERICAN DREAM VS. PROGRESSIVE DREAM authors Craig Smith and Lowell Ponte explain how to restore the American Dream of a brighter future, as well as the sinister roots of Progressivism; an anti-individualism, pro-collectivism, anti-free market and pro-socialist ideology.
R.I.P., Bitcoin. -Washington Post
"Not long ago, venture capitalists were talking about how Bitcoin was going to transform the global currency system and render governments powerless to police monetary transactions. Now the cryptocurrency is fighting for survival. The reality came to light on Jan. 14, when its influential developer, Mike Hearn, declared Bitcoin a failure and disclosed that he had sold all of his Bitcoins. The price of Bitcoin fell 10 percent in a single day on the news, a sad result for those who are losing money on it....Bitcoin was born with serious flaws. It was unregulated and provided anonymity, so it rapidly became a haven for drug dealers and anarchists. It’s time to admit that the current Bitcoin needs to be scrapped and to take advantage of the innovations behind the technology that underlies Bitcoin, the blockchain."
Back in 2014, our Real Money Perspectives warned readers ..."Bitcoin has been hijacked by speculators and that it may be a Ponzi scheme whose sharp fluctuations lure get-rich-quick investors but will prevent Bitcoin from being accepted as a reliable alternative currency. Competitors will overtake and extinguish Bitcoin....Gold, meanwhile, continues as it has for thousands of years – as a reliable store of value with its own global intrinsic worth that acts as prudent insurance against the declines of conjured, politicized fiat money, both paper and digital. Gold, the once and future money, has outlasted all fads, bubbles and competitors." Read The Timeless Truth About Gold & Silver.
1.20.16 - CONFIDENCE CRISIS DEAD AHEAD
Gold last traded at $1,106 an ounce. Silver at $14.16 an ounce.
NEWS SUMMARY: U.S. stocks fell sharply Wednesday as a 6% slide in oil prices prompted a global stock rout. Meanwhile, precious metal prices rose as investors embraced the safety of gold.
World Enters Bear Market -Zero Hedge
"History repeats, if you're just willing to listen. The 'Dead-Cat-Bubble' is dead as global stocks enter a bear market (down 20% from May 2015 highs) and US equities catch down to the rest of the world. MSCI'S all-country World Index extends drop to 20% from record. It would appear the business cycle trumps central planning after all...Trillions in printed money around the world and its deja vu all over again for the idiocy of 'wealth creation'-driven sustainable consumption. How long until The Fed Un-Hikes?"
Global Crisis of Confidence Unfolding -Fox Business
Fox Business's 'Coast to Coast with Neil Cavuto' welcomed author and Swiss America Chairman Craig R. Smith to discuss the steep market declines so far in 2016. Host Neil Cavuto asked Craig if he is worried. Click here to watch his response.
The bear market in stocks has finally arrived -Marketwatch
"Veteran investor Mark D. Cook, who pointed out red flags a year ago, feels vindicated. Finally, stock prices confirmed what he saw in 2014: We’re in a bear market and about to go over the cliff, he says. Why do you still believe we’re in a bear market? First, the oil and gas situation is a huge problem, and it will continue. We’re not getting bounces. Instead, oil investors just want to sell. The second problem, and it’s just getting started, is China. China is like an athlete that twisted his ankle and needs time to heal. If the ankle doesn’t heal, it will get worse, and that’s what is happening right now....Rallies are short-lived while the declines last longer. In a bear market, nearly every buy-on-the-dip purchase turns red. In a bear market, there is absolutely no stock or individual portfolio that is impervious to the pain of being long."
A Wave of 'Epic Defaults' On the Way -Evans-Pritchett/Telegraph
"The global financial system has become dangerously unstable and faces an avalanche of bankruptcies that will test social and political stability, a leading monetary theorist has warned. 'The situation is worse than it was in 2007. Our macroeconomic ammunition to fight downturns is essentially all used up,' said William White, the Swiss-based chairman of the OECD's review committee and former chief economist of the Bank for International Settlements (BIS)....'It will become obvious in the next recession that many of these debts will never be serviced or repaid, and this will be uncomfortable for a lot of people who think they own assets that are worth something,' he told The Telegraph on the eve of the World Economic Forum in Davos....'The only question is whether we are able to look reality in the eye and face what is coming in an orderly fashion, or whether it will be disorderly.'"
1.19.16 - WILL OIL SLIDE CRASH STOCKS?
Gold last traded at $1,089 an ounce. Silver at $14.12 an ounce.
NEWS SUMMARY: Early U.S. stock gains were wiped out Tuesday as oil prices slumped below $29 a barrel. Meanwhile, precious metal prices inched higher on safe haven buying and a weaker U.S. dollar.
Stocks Overvalued, 'Buy Gold' Says Analyst -Barrons
"In a recent phone interview with Barrons.com from Vail, Colo. Stephanie Pomboy shared her thoughts about the economy, the markets, and how she invests her own money. Q: People have criticized you for being bullish on both gold and Treasuries at the same time. After all, Treasuries are a bet that inflation will be tame, and gold is often viewed as an antidote to rising inflation. A: I guess I view gold as becoming a currency rather than a commodity. And the dollar is being debased. Q: Given that gold and the dollar have had such a powerful inverse relationship over time, it would seem that you can’t be bullish on gold unless you are bearish on the dollar? A: Precisely. Which brings me to the call that I made last year, and I’m even more emphatic on today: that the dollar is wildly overowned. I think there is zero chance that the Fed continues to raise rates this year and as those expectations come out of the market, that will work to the detriment of the dollar and to the benefit of gold."
We agree with Ms. Pomboy - 2016 is the right time to be bullish on gold; and bearish on stocks and the dollar. As founder and president of MacroMavens, Stephanie is paid handsomely by her institutional-investor clients to closely examine the bigger economic picture. For our take on why gold's future is so bright in 2016, read The Timeless Truth About Gold & Silver.
US crude dips below $29, IEA warns on oversupply -CNBC
"Brent crude oil prices pared gains after rising more than 5 percent on Tuesday as investors viewed bullish Chinese oil demand data as a buying trigger, but contracts remained near 12-year lows as the IEA said the market should stay oversupplied this year....The agency said oil prices could fall below current levels. 'While the pace of stock building eases in the second half of the year as supply from non-OPEC producers falls, unless something changes, the oil market could drown in oversupply,' the IEA said."
Big banks brace for oil loans to implode -CNN
"Firms on Wall Street helped bankroll America's energy boom, financing very expensive drilling projects that ended up flooding the world with oil. Now that the oil glut has caused prices to crash below $30 a barrel, turmoil is rippling through the energy industry and souring many of those loans. Dozens of oil companies have gone bankrupt and the ones that haven't are feeling enough financial stress to slash spending and cut tens of thousands of jobs. Three of America's biggest banks warned last week that oil prices will continue to create headaches on Wall Street - especially if doomsday scenarios of $20 or even $10 oil play out. For instance, Wells Fargo is sitting on more than $17 billion in loans to the oil and gas sector. The bank is setting aside $1.2 billion in reserves to cover losses because of the 'continued deterioration within the energy sector.'"
According to Swiss America chairman Craig R. Smith, "Crashing oil prices should be watched very closely. Major banks with bad loans were the fuse which lit the 2008 financial crisis." In Craig's latest book, WE HAVE SEEN THE FUTURE AND IT LOOKS LIKE BALTIMORE: AMERICAN DREAM VS. PROGRESSIVE DREAM he explains why zero interest rates and 'Unreal Economics' have put the U.S. economy and banking system at risk like never before.
"Manic Depressive" Market Needs "Wholesale Panic" To Bottom -Zero Hedge
"'The market is manic depressive and it swings from seeing only the positives to seeing only the negatives,' notes the world’s biggest distressed-debt investor, Howard Marks, but for now, as Bloomberg reports, the extremes (in risk pricing and sentiment) that usually signal opportunity (or capitulation) are not present. As Guggenheim's Scott Minerd warns, 'wholesale panic' is what's needed before the market turns, and as RBS notes, '1,800 might come pretty quick.' The S&P 500 ended Friday at 1,880.33 after sliding as low 1,857.83 earlier in the day. For chart-watchers, now that August’s low of 1,867 has been tested a fourth time since 2014, '1,800 might come pretty quick,' said Ryan Larson, the Chicago-based head of U.S. equity trading at RBC Global Asset Management Inc., which oversees $280 billion."
To understand why one of the biggest financial trends in 2016 includes the need for a major U.S. stock market correction, request a free copy of Swiss America's 2016 RIGHT ON THE MONEY newsletter and CD.
1.15.16 - STOCKS MANIC! DON'T PANIC!
Gold last traded at $1,090 an ounce. Silver at $13.89 an ounce.
NEWS SUMMARY: U.S. and global stocks fell sharply Friday, with the Dow crashing nearly 500 points on China fears and falling oil prices. Meanwhile, precious metal prices rose on safe haven buying as the U.S. dollar declined.
Stocks Nosedive, Investors Flock To Safe Havens -Fox Business
"U.S. equity markets saw sharp declines Friday as oil prices resumed a recent rout and nervousness about China flared again. As of 12:30 p.m. ET, the Dow Jones Industrial Average dropped 495 points, or 3.02% to 15886. The S&P 500 plunged 58 points, or 3.07% to 1862, while the Nasdaq Composite shed 179 points, or 3.89% to 4434....The energy sector plunged more than 4%, followed by financials and consumer discretionary, which led the session’s losses....As traders hit the equity-market exits, they flocked to safe havens like Treasury bonds and gold. The precious metal jumped 1.91% in recent action to $1,094 a troy ounce. The yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury bond, meanwhile, dropped below 2%."
For many, many years Swiss America chairman Craig R. Smith has advised clients they should never buy or sell any asset in a panic. Period. Two weeks ago Mr. Smith told Fox Business he decided to sell all of his stocks, due to the likelihood of a long-term (secular) bear market in stocks in 2016. Each day it looks more and more like the bear has finally arrived. Market manias are a product of modern, electronic "trader-age" we live in. A panic is when our basic instinct quickly shifts from either apathy or greed to fear. Fear brings with it knee-jerk, emotional reactions we may regret later. When others panic, sit tight. Now is a perfect time to seriously consider adding more "wealth insurance" - gold. Read The Timeless Truth About Gold & Silver.
A recession worse than 2008 is coming -CNBC
"The S&P 500 has begun 2016 with its worst performance ever. This has prompted Wall Street apologists to come out in full force and try to explain why the chaos in global currencies and equities will not be a repeat of 2008....But a recession has occurred in the U.S. about every five years, on average, since the end of WWII; and it has been seven years since the last one - we are overdue. Most importantly, the average market drop during the peak to trough of the last 6 recessions has been 37 percent. That would take the S&P 500 down to 1,300; if this next recession were to be just of the average variety. But this one will be worse."
In Swiss America's 2016 RIGHT ON THE MONEY newsletter and audio CD, chairman Craig Smith explains why we never really escaped the so-called "Great Recession" of 2008. Official government statistics masked the terrible truth that the American economy did not recover. More unintended consequences lie ahead in 2016 as the failed Fed experiment in fiat stimulus, together with the federal government's war on entrepreneurs, come back to haunt us by causing mispriced assets to fall back to earth with a thud.
Oil Bust Could End Dollar Domination -Oilprice.com
"The US dollar survived the collapse of Bretton Woods in the '70s because its use in crude oil transactions made it the king of reserve currencies, but can it survive a collapse of petro dollars? Can the world survive the catastrophic geopolitical consequences that would follow? There is an overriding belief that the U.S. dollar can hold onto its status as the world's king reserve currency simply because of petro dollars. But in recent years, a serious threat to this system has developed-and the risk of the dollar being dethroned is very real."
Smith warns of rising dollar risks in 2016 in his latest Special Report What's Next For The Dollar?
Paper Gold: Utopia for Alchemists -Hathaway/Tocqueville
"An acute shortage of readily marketable physical gold is developing that we believe will deepen in years to come. This possibility seems to be unrecognized by those who are short the gold market through paper contracts. The relentless dumping of synthetic or paper gold contracts since 2011 by speculators in Western financial markets has caused the shortage. The steady selling has driven down the price of physical gold, hobbled the gold-mining industry, and drained the stores of gold held in the vaults of Western financial centers. We believe that the shortage will worsen because (1) the precursors of production (exploration, discovery, reserve life) are very negative, (2) the mining industry has little financial credibility and seems unlikely to attract capital even with a big rise in gold prices, and (3) refining capacity limitations tend to create supply bottlenecks when physical demand spikes."
John Hathaway is a credible voice well worth listening to. He was one of the very first analysts who called for "4-Digit Gold" back in 2005 - when gold prices were still under $500 an ounce. Truth is, gold passed four-digits in 2009 and has not seen three-digits since. Now is the time to stock up on the most trustworthy form of money on earth ... GOLD!
*Swiss America will be closed Monday, January 18 in observance of Martin Luther King Jr Day*
1.14.16 - WALL STREET'S 'DEAD CAT BOUNCE'
Gold last traded at $1,073 an ounce. Silver at $13.74 an ounce.
NEWS SUMMARY: U.S. stocks were lifted by energy sector gains Thursday as crude oil prices rallied above $30 a barrel. Meanwhile, precious metal prices steadied on profit taking and a stronger U.S. dollar.
Correction Could Become A Full On Bear -Barron's
"I consider there to be two indicators that tell us when a bear market has begun. The first is when the benchmark index violates both long-term trendlines and key support levels. In November, I discussed here that the charts looked remarkably similar to those seen at the last market top in 2007. I followed that up in December showing the same condition, complete with confirming technical indicators, at the 2000 peak....Part two - the support break - will occur if and when the index drops below its August low of 1867, to the nearest penny. With the index closing at 1890 Wednesday afternoon, it doesn’t have far to go."
Please don't be fooled by one-day stock market rallies on Wall Street which, without follow through, are referred to as a "Dead Cat Bounce". To better understand the most important fundamental economic trends in 2016 request a free copy of Swiss America's 2016 RIGHT ON THE MONEY newsletter and CD.
Stealth Bear Market Could Wreak Portfolio Havoc -SATC Weekly
"True to its name, a Stealth Bear Market is masked and declines are not as obvious. The trouble lies under the hood, so to speak....According to a growing number of strategists, we are undoubtedly in a Stealth Bear universe. True to form, the Big Board prognosticators claim market momentum for 2016, but their overly rosy portrayal of the indices ignores the exchange’s risk cycles and the presence of the Stealth Bear lurking within the internal market data. They also turn a blind eye to all those downward trends gripping many securities particularly within the energy sector which suffered double digit losses last year....And there’s something else they are ignoring … the sudden flight to safe haven investments. With the Chinese markets in free fall, the Middle East in turmoil, global terror on the rise, oil prices pushing historic lows, and renewed Russian, Iranian and North Korean aggression … the 'stealth' Bear seems to be stepping out of the shadows." Full story
China Flexes Muscles At Shanghai Gold Exchange -Sprott Money
"After years of passively reacting to Western crime and aggression; both China and Russia have shown an increasing tendency to adopt a more proactive stance. On the economic front, China has leaped into the international gold market, suddenly and decisively. After having purchased no gold on the open market for at least six years; China’s government has now made large, open market purchases of gold every month, for six consecutive months. This has already totaled roughly 100 tons....Of equal significance; China is funding these open market purchases with the proceeds from dumping large quantities of its U.S. Treasuries holdings."
Gold prices will spike 30% -CNN
"One of America's top money managers predicts gold prices will soon spike. Gold will shoot up to $1,400 an ounce, according to Jeff Gundlach, the CEO of big bond house DoubleLine Capital. That would be a gain of about 30% from gold's current price of $1,090. Gundlach thinks gold recently hit a bottom. It's been rallying since the beginning of the year as investors look for safe havens in the stock market sell-off....The United States is in a 'stealth bear market' where many stocks are actually down 20% from their peaks. Stealth bear markets are usually followed by 'full-on bear markets,' he said."
Read more about the bullish factors for precious metals in 2016 and beyond in The Timeless Truth About Gold & Silver.
Key Economic Talking Points For Tonight's GOP Debate -Hedge Eye
"Let's be clear. Obama's rosy economic picture is false....On a related note, GOP contenders have plenty of 'non-fiction' to refute Obama's clams at tonight's Fox Business GOP Debate. Here are some key talking points any serious contender should consider ahead of the debate courtesy of our outspoken, reality-based CEO Keith McCullough....96 million don't have a job, 46 million are on food-stamps, Manufacturing is in a Recession....We are already in an industrial, cyclical, and US profit Recession...a Durable Goods Recession."
1.13.16 - HAS THE STOCK CRASH BEGUN?
Gold last traded at $1,087 an ounce. Silver at $14.15 an ounce.
NEWS SUMMARY: U.S. stocks resumed their 2016 downdraft Wednesday declining 2-3% as rising inventories sunk oil prices below $30 a barrel. Meanwhile, precious metal prices extended 2016 gains on bargain hunting despite a firmer dollar.
Nearly half of U.S. stocks in a bear market -CNN
"There hasn't been a bear market in the U.S. since the Great Recession. And even after the atrocious start to 2016, Wall Street isn't close to a bear market. The major indexes have to plunge 20% below their previous high to be in one. The S&P 500 is down about 9% from its record highs of last year. The Dow and Nasdaq are down 10% from the highs, officially falling into 'correction' mode. But lurking beneath the surface, the picture looks a lot worse. As of Friday nearly half - or 229 - of the stocks in the S&P 500 have crumbled at least 20% below their 52-week highs, according to FactSet data. They include stocks rocked by the oil crash like Chesapeake Energy (down a stunning 77% from its high) as well as better-known names like FedEx, Goldman Sachs and Priceline."
Bank of Scotland Economists says "Sell Everything" Ahead of Stock Crash -The Guardian
"Investors face a 'cataclysmic year' where stock markets could fall by up to 20% and oil could slump to $16 a barrel, economists at the Royal Bank of Scotland have warned. In a note to its clients the bank said: 'Sell everything except high quality bonds. This is about return of capital, not return on capital. In a crowded hall, exit doors are small.' It said the current situation was reminiscent of 2008, when the collapse of the Lehman Brothers investment bank led to the global financial crisis. This time China could be the crisis point."
Swiss America representative and senior analyst James Carrillo issued a major stock market "sell" warning in December 2015. According to Mr. Carrillo, "The stock market momentum has now officially reversed course, signaling the beginning of a long-term downtrend, if not a full-fledged crash." Request a free copy of Swiss America's 2016 RIGHT ON THE MONEY newsletter with Mr. Carrillo's story, as well as 2016 economic perspectives from; Jim Rickards, Craig R. Smith, Dean Heskin, Axel Merk, Jim Cramer and Dennis Miller.
Stealth bear market mauls Wall Street -USA Today
"There is mounting evidence that the U.S. stock market is being decimated and undermined by a so-called 'stealth' bear market. If it feels like a bear market on Wall Street - even though the 9.8% drop for the S&P 500 from its May peak doesn't even meet the 10% dip needed to be classified as an official correction - it's probably because hundreds of U.S. stocks are already suffering their own personal bear markets, defined as a price drop of at least 20% from a prior high. Bear sightings, in turns out, are getting more and more plentiful with each passing day in 2016, a year in which the Standard & Poor's 500 index is down 5.97% and off to its worst five-day start to a year ever."
Banksters Win Again - "Audit the Fed" Bill Fails In The Senate -Zero Hedge
"Rand Paul’s signature 'Audit the Fed' legislation failed to garner the 60 votes needed in the Senate to move the measure forward. Of course, this is merely the latest in a never-ending series of banker victories, and a truly devastating blow against liberty, free markets, transparency and any hope for government by the people and for the people. Ensuring that light is never shined on the Fed’s shady, corrupt and unaccountable bailout activities has always been a key goal of the American oligarchy, and they succeeded once again."
As Swiss America chairman Craig R. Smith warned in his 2014 book DON'T BANK ON IT!, U.S. banks are headed for trouble. Today bank stocks are sinking in a ocean of misguided Fed policy which, rather than reduce banking risks, has caused the biggest banks to become 33% bigger and riskier than they were before the 2008 crisis. Fed manipulation of interest rates and trillions in stimulus will have big consequences, as explained in The Biggest Bank Heist in History.
When The U.S. Dollar No Longer Exists -Sprott Money
"The Federal Reserve is a criminal accomplice of Wall Street and the Big Bank crime syndicate . The central 'business' of this crime syndicate is the eight-year bubble-and-crash cycles that it orchestrates in our markets. The cycles are approximately eight years long in order to be synchronized with the U.S. election cycle....The result: the Twin Bubbles - U.S. stocks and bonds. Something which is supposed to be mathematically impossible (in legitimate markets), since the stock market and bond market are counter-cyclical....There never was a 'U.S. recovery,' and as already noted, this crippled economy is now already descending into a full collapse....The Federal Reserve is pledging to 'normalize' U.S. interest rates. The U.S. dollar would (will) be hyperinflated to absolute worthlessness long before this occurs."
Author and Swiss America chairman Craig R. Smith warns of rising dollar risks in 2016 in his latest Special Report What's Next For The Dollar?
1.12.16 - THE EMPTY PROGRESSIVE DREAM
Gold last traded at $1,085 an ounce. Silver at $13.87 an ounce.
NEWS SUMMARY: U.S. stocks gyrated lower Tuesday as a selloff in crude oil weighed on energy companies. Meanwhile, precious metals eased back on short-term profit taking and a firmer dollar.
Is the Market Swoon Signaling Recession? -Samuelson/Washington Post
"Is the stock market telling us something? True, the market's record in forecasting recessions is horrendous. Stocks often move according to whim or fad. But just because the market is wrong much of the time doesn't mean it's wrong all the time. Could last week's turbulent trading be one of the times it's right? By Friday's close, stocks had dropped 6% for the week, a paper loss of $1.5 trillion, says Wilshire Associates. Are we staring at the next recession?....The China bubble has popped. Price indexes have dropped from their peak by about 50%. Supply dwarfs demand; new investments have been canceled. Collapsing prices have devastated commodity exporters, led by oil producers....With so much weakness, the world economy is vulnerable to events (say, North Korea's nuclear bomb test) that reduce confidence. Any ensuing declines of business or consumer spending could plunge us into recession."
In RIGHT ON THE MONEY Swiss America chairman Craig R. Smith explains why seventy percent of Americans are worried our economy and culture is moving quickly in the wrong direction. A stagnant US economy, stock market bubbles, unsafe banks, international cyber warfare, a nuclear Iran, etc. Is America on a race to the bottom?
Obama’s Empty Chair, the State of the Union -Wall Street Journal
"As Barack Obama puts the finishing touches on his final State of the Union address, a White House teaser reveals one of his planned props for the evening: 'We leave one seat empty in the First Lady’s State of the Union Guest Box for the victims of gun violence who no longer have a voice.'....The spectacle is made for President Obama. After all, this is the man who strode out on a stage of foam Greek columns when he accepted his party’s nomination for the presidency. How appropriate that in his last State of the Union he now opts for the empty chair routine used to such derision by Clint Eastwood at the last Republican National Convention....The gimmick Mr. Obama has now chosen for his final State of the Union, meant to highlight his end run around the Second Amendment, is fully consistent with this past. But seven years in, an empty chair in the first lady’s box only reinforces images of an empty suit at the podium."
In their latest book, WE HAVE SEEN THE FUTURE AND IT LOOKS LIKE BALTIMORE: AMERICAN DREAM VS. PROGRESSIVE DREAM authors Craig Smith and Lowell Ponte explore the sinister origins and roots of Progressivism; an anti-individualism, pro-collectivism, anti-free market and pro-socialist ideology that shares common ideological ancestry with both Nazism and Communism. They also reveal how and why Progressives like President Barack Obama are rushing America into a cashless, un-capitalist new economic system.
After State of the Union, GOP and Tea Party's Last Word -Roll Call
"When South Carolina Gov. Nikki R. Haley ends her response to President Barack Obama’s State of the Union address on Tuesday night, hers will not be the last word for the Republican Party. After the rising star wraps up her remarks, at least two Republicans - and likely more, including some of the party’s presidential aspirants - will deliver their own responses to Obama’s final speech of this kind. For starters, Rep. Mario Diaz-Balart, a seventh-term Republican from Florida, will deliver a response in Spanish, and Nevada conservative activist Wayne Allyn Root will deliver a response on behalf of the Tea Party Express....Tea Party Express co-founder Sal Russo said that in a year when political outsiders are dominating the presidential polls, he thought it was right to have someone such as Root, who does not hold elected office, respond to the president on behalf of conservative activists."
Wars and currency collapse will get brutal -King World News
"In this week’s KWN interview Egon von Greyerz talks about the two trends that are guaranteed to create major problems for the world namely wars, social unrest as well as continued debasement of all currencies. Egon also discusses the turn in all stock markets that started at the beginning of 2016 with China down over 14% and most other markets down 6- 10%. He says that coming years will be brutal and that we are now seeing a resumption of the 2008 downtrend that eventually will lead to 90% falls in markets. Egon also talks about gold being the strongest performing asset this century in spite of the last few years’ correction. He sees stock markets falling another 95% against gold in coming years. Finally Egon covers the physical gold market with dwindling stocks in Comex and Bullion Banks combined with massive uncovered paper claims in gold."
Author and Swiss America chairman Craig R. Smith warns in his latest Special Report What's Next For The Dollar? that the dollar likely peaked in 2015 and will soon begin its descent in 2016 as currency wars escalate.
It's time to stash cash -CNBC
"Because of the increased volatility, portfolio manager Chad Morganlander said his firm, Washington Crossing Advisors of Stifel Nicolaus, has been increasing cash exposure over the last three months. 'It is an asset class and you should utilize it in an environment like this, where global growth is decelerating at a rapid pace as well as commodities markets across the board are also hitting lower lows,' Morganlander said Monday on CNBC's 'Trading Nation.'....Allocation to U.S. equities has fallen to an eight-year low, with investors underweight the asset class for 10-straight months, according to the most recent Bank of America Merrill Lynch Global Fund Manager Survey. The survey also found that global average cash balance increased to 5.2 percent from 4.9 percent in December."
In 2016 we strongly recommend getting back to economic basics - which means putting aside some emergency cash and stocking up on physical gold and silver as wealth insurance. To better understand why governments worldwide have declared a "war on cash" read THE SECRET WAR ON CASH.
1.11.16 - WILL GOLD'S GROWTH CONTINUE?
Gold last traded at $1,096 an ounce. Silver at $13.86 an ounce.
NEWS SUMMARY: U.S stocks traded mixed Monday, struggling to stabilize after posting their worst week ever as declines in commodity prices weighed. Meanwhile, precious metals consolidated last week's gains on a stronger U.S. dollar.
U.S. Company Profits to Drop - Again -Chicago Tribune
"Tumult in China triggered the worst opening week for U.S. stocks in history, and this week investors could get plenty more to worry about. Profits are expected to drop at U.S. companies. Again. Earnings for companies in the Standard and Poor's 500 index are forecast to drop for the second straight quarter, a rare occurrence outside a recession....Companies begin reporting their results for the October-December quarter on Monday. Earnings per share for the companies in S&P 500 is expected to have dropped 5.5 percent compared to a year earlier, according to S&P Capital IQ, a research firm."
Despite the happy talk about a U.S. economic recovery, the odds are high stocks will underperform in 2016. According to Swiss America chairman Craig R. Smith, "Wages are stagnant, bank reserves are plunging. China has a liquidity problem, which likely means selling off U.S. debt, and the international currency wars will expand." All of this bodes well for physical gold and badly for today's overinflated U.S. stock market. Read more in Craig's 2016 report: RIGHT ON THE MONEY.
Will Gold's Growth Continue? -Seeking Alpha
"There is every reason to substantiate the rally in gold and silver that occurred during the first week of 2016. There is every reason for these two metals to move to higher ground....For both gold and silver, breakout levels are clear. Gold must trade above $1200 and silver above $16.50 to break the cyclical bearish patterns. This means that there is lots of upside room for gold and silver right now. Gold has $90 room and silver has over $2 in which to rally over the coming weeks. Time will tell if these metals will finally react to a world filled with uncertainty and volatility."
Unlike every other form of money on earth, Gold has a 4,000-year history of preserving wealth and offering instant liquidity worldwide; while offering you a way to maintain your personal privacy. Read more in The Timeless Truth About Gold & Silver.
Is the US working hard or hardly working? -Crudele/NY Post
"On Friday, the Labor Department reported that the US had strong job growth in December. The 292,000 new jobs far exceeded what Wall Street was expecting. And revisions to October and November’s numbers added another 50,000 jobs to the count. But those numbers don’t reflect what is happening on the Main Streets of American. There, life is a lot tougher. For example, the broader measure of unemployment, called U-6, which measures Americans working in part-time jobs because they can’t find a 40-hour-a-week job, finds 6 million people, or 9.9 percent of the workforce, not able to find a full-time job....The Fed has a policy meeting on Jan. 26-27. Yellen and her crew can raise rates anytime they want, even tomorrow during halftime of an NFL wild-card game if they feel like it."
Gas prices could drop toward $1 a gallon -USA Today
"As oil prices fall, and refinery capacity stays strong, the price of gas could reach $1 a gallon in some areas, a level last reached in 1999. As a matter of fact, the entire states of Alabama, Arkansas, Missouri, Oklahoma and South Caroline have gas prices that average at or below $1.75. Gasoline prices are driven mostly by four factors: oil prices, proximity to refineries, refinery capacity and state taxes and levies. Oil prices have dropped below $33 a barrel and continue to collapse. The recent decision by Saudi Arabia to continue to keep its oil exports high essentially has dissolved the OPEC cartel."
Trump: ‘Only Hope to Defeat the Kingmakers’ -Phyllis Schlafly/Breitbart
"In an exclusive hour-long sit down interview with Breitbart News, 91-year-old conservative icon and living legend Phyllis Schlafly declared that Donald Trump 'is the only hope to defeat the Kingmakers,' and detailed why she believes Trump alone will return the government to the people. She warned that if immigration is not stopped: 'we’re not going to be America anymore.'....Today, Schlafly tells Breitbart that the defining and most important battle is immigration. She said that current visa rates will 'destroy our country,' and called for a pause on all new immigration, just like the county had during the middle of the 20th century."
Donald Trump, the leading GOP presidential candidate, will be a weekly guest Mondays at 3:30pm (EST) on The Howie Carr Show, airing on Boston radio station WRKO. Swiss America will be sponsoring the segment.
1.8.16 - 2016: The Best and Worst of Times
Gold last traded at $1,097 an ounce. Silver at $13.91 an ounce.
NEWS SUMMARY: U.S. stocks bobbed up and down Friday, attempting to rally amid rising low-paying jobs data, after the worst start to a new year in history. Meanwhile, precious metals had their best start in many years as investors sought a safe haven from rising market volatility.
Jobs Boost Dominated by Minimum Wage Work -Zero Hedge
"Earlier we gave a big picture explanation how the US can add 292,000 jobs while average hourly wages actually decline....It will probably come as no surprise to anyone that for another consecutive month, the well-paying jobs: mining and logging, wholesale trade, manufacturing, and information barely posted a net increase....Alternatively, the worst quality jobs continued to soar, pushed higher once again by none other than education and health, where Obamacare was once again instrumental to propel healthcare jobs by a 52,600 surge in December. The rest was just ugly: temp help soared by 34,400, while waiter and bartenders added another 36,900."
Stocks Off to Worst Start in History -Wall Street Journal
"The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell nearly 400 points Thursday as steep falls in Chinese equities spilled over to global markets. Thursday’s selloff came after the People’s Bank of China made its largest downward adjustment to the yuan since August....The Dow industrials dropped 392.41 points, or 2.3%, to 16514.10. The S&P 500 dropped 2.4%. Both indexes are off to their worst starts ever, with the Dow down 5.2% over the first four trading days of the year and the S&P 500 off 4.9%. The Nasdaq Composite, which declined 3% on Thursday, is having its worst start since 2000, down 6.4%. Traders said while they prepared for a frenzied trading session there was relatively little urgency in the selling."
Watch Swiss America chairman Craig R. Smith tell Fox Business's 'Risk & Reward' viewers why he decided to dump all stock holdings in 2015. Read more on Smith's outlook in his 2016 Real Money Perspectives newsletter RIGHT ON THE MONEY.
'Something's Wrong! Sell! Sell!' -Doug Cass/Tumblr
"Let me underscore this morning that rationality wilts and gets sedated in the market when large doses of effortless money are administered (i.e. Federal Reserve stimulus)....The market mechanism has become broken, with machines and algos taking a more-dominant role - filling the vacuum left by the exit of individual investors and a less-active hedge-fund community....If my market fears come true this year, it's inevitable that Main Street and the real economy will suffer the adverse impacts of a broken market mechanism and falling stock prices. Distortions and malinvestments are occurring as a result, meaning strategies that worked in the past begin to fail - as do the money managers who relied on them."
Marc Faber Sees 40% Stock Drop, 'Buy Gold' -Marketwatch
"The U.S. stock market is in free fall....But perma-bear Marc Faber says it could be a lot worse. The Swiss investor who publishes the Gloom, Boom & Doom Report told MarketWatch that the stock-market downturn could result in the S&P 500 hitting lows not seen in five years....'The main factor is diminishing global liquidity because of the decline in oil prices,' he told MarketWatch....Where does an investor find shelter in this mess? Faber says gold, which advanced to its best level since November Thursday to settle at $1,107.80 an ounce and the gold miners exchange-traded fund which has advanced 8.5% year to date."
Read The Timeless Truth About Gold & Silver to learn the wisdom of owning physical gold for safety and growth in 2016.
1.6.16 - GOLD RISES ON GLOBAL FEAR
Gold last traded at $1,091 an ounce. Silver at $13.97 an ounce.
NEWS SUMMARY: U.S. stocks tumbled again Wednesday amid China fear and unconfirmed reports that North Korea tested a hydrogen-bomb overnight, which stoked investor fears of rising geopolitical threats. Meanwhile, precious metals rose for a third day on safe haven buying.
Dow falls triple digits; geopolitics, growth concerns -CNBC
"U.S. stocks opened sharply lower Wednesday, weighed by continued concerns about global economic growth, low oil prices and increased geopolitical tensions....'The biggest thing affecting markets today and this year, we're coming in with an assumption the global economy is slowing more in '16 than '15. We're worried about China,' said Art Hogan, chief market strategist at Wunderlich Securities. Adding to those concerns Wednesday was North Korea's claim to have successfully tested a hydrogen bomb. 'It's a combination of that event ... and an assumption that valuations are out of line with global economic growth,' Hogan said."
In Swiss America's 2016 Real Money Perspectives newsletter RIGHT ON THE MONEY, Swiss America senior broker and market analyst James Carrillo explains why the overinflated, propped up stock market bull may well be over.
Not everything is down. Gold rises on global fear -CNN
"It's not a happy new year for investors ... unless you're a gold bug. Gold was one of the few things that was up on Monday while stock markets around the world tanked due to renewed worries about an economic slowdown in China and more tension in the Middle East....The yellow metal rose nearly 2% to about $1,080 an ounce. Gold mining stocks were rallying too. It makes sense for gold to be in the green while everything else is starting off 2016 in red. Gold often does well during times of fear. It rose in 2008, for example."
Read The Timeless Truth About Gold & Silver to discover the wisdom of restoring a personal gold standard in 2016 for safety and growth.
Gold's Greatest Rally Ahead -The Street
"In its first trading week of the new year, gold prices are ‘encouraging,’ this according to uber gold bull and CEO of the advisory firm, Euro Pacific Capital, Peter Schiff. According to Schiff, the best of the metal is yet to come. ‘Gold will see new highs and the biggest leg of the gold bubble market -- which really began in 1999 with gold below $300 – the next leg will be the biggest leg.’ Speaking with Kitco News, Schiff explained his reasoning for gold’s lackluster performance in the past three years, saying it was driven by the ‘false belief’ ‘that the U.S. Fed had engineered a ‘legitimate economic recovery of the United States’ and that higher interest rates would be supportive of the dollar and detrimental to the price of gold. ‘All this is wrong,’ he said, adding that, ‘all the Fed did was inflate a gigantic bubble which may have already popped.’"
Inside Wall Street’s disastrous start to 2016 -NY Post
"Crappy New Year! That’s how Wall Street greeted 2016 Monday, as the Dow Jones industrial average suffered one of its worst first-day-of-the-year losses since 2008. And if you listen very carefully, you’ll soon be hearing the Federal Reserve say, 'Oops.' Fed chief Janet Yellen may even use the F-word - because things are really that bad....Is there a stock market bubble? No doubt. Will the bubble be able to survive until corporate profits catch up? Probably not - at least if Monday’s Wall Street debacle is any indication."
1.5.16 - SMART MONEY EXITING STOCKS
Gold last traded at $1,078 an ounce. Silver at $13.97 an ounce.
NEWS SUMMARY: U.S. stocks closed mixed Tuesday on upbeat auto sales data and a surprise cash injection by China's central bank to help stabilize stock market volatility. Meanwhile, precious metal prices rose for a second day - despite a stronger U.S. dollar.
Stock Charts Flashing Red -Barrons
"The old year closed with a raft of weakening technical indicators, and as the new year began the stock market proved it was not strong enough to handle disruptions around the world. That is likely to be the theme for the coming months....Weak manufacturing data in China sparked a selloff in that market great enough to trigger circuit breakers....Many chart watchers monitor the 'January Indicator,' saying 'as goes January, so goes the year.'....The message is that the market is sniffing out economic problems heading our way."
Housing up, monetary expert dumps stocks -Fox Business
Michael Chadwick of Chadwick Financial Advisors and Swiss America Chairman and monetary expert Craig Smith discuss the housing market and U.S. economy on 'Risk and Reward' with host Deirdre Bolton - Fox Business. What should rising home prices be telling us? Is it time to buy or sell? What about the stock market? Watch now to find out what these experts had to say.
In Swiss America's 2016 Real Money Perspectives newsletter RIGHT ON THE MONEY Craig Smith explains why 70% of Americans are worried that our economy and culture is moving quickly in the wrong direction - and what must be done now to be financially prepared.
Mourning in America -Lowell Ponte/Thefuturelookslikebaltimore.com
"President Ronald Reagan reawakened us to morning in America, an era of optimism that produced a quarter-century of prosperity and success. President Barack Obama's seven years, by contrast, have produced mourning in America and a widespread pessimistic feeling of loss, despair and grief. Millions now feel that something essential to our success and well-being has died here - that we are sad witnesses to the death of the American Dream. A new poll published January 5 by Esquire Magazine and NBC News finds that 52 percent of Americans now believe that the American Dream was 'Once True but Not Anymore.' Another 11 percent now believe that it 'Never Held True.'" Read full story
How do we keep the American dream alive? Read WE HAVE SEEN THE FUTURE AND IT LOOKS LIKE BALTIMORE: AMERICAN DREAM VS. PROGRESSIVE DREAM.
This Time Isn’t Different -The Burning Platform
"The Wall Street shysters and their mainstream media mouthpieces declare 2016 to be a rebound year, with stocks again delivering double digit returns. When haven’t they touted great future returns. They touted them in 2000 and 2007 too. No one earning their paycheck on Wall Street or on CNBC will point out the most obvious speculative bubble in history. John Hussman has been pointing it out for the last two years as the Fed created bubble has grown ever larger. Those still embracing the bubble will sit down to a banquet of consequences in 2016. 'At the peak of every speculative bubble, there are always those who have persistently embraced the story that gave the bubble its impetus in the first place. As a result, the recent past always belongs to them, if only temporarily. Still, the future inevitably belongs to somebody else. By the completion of the market cycle, no less than half (and often all) of the preceding speculative advance is typically wiped out.'"
1.4.16 - GOT WEALTH INSURANCE?
Gold last traded at $1,075 an ounce. Silver at $13.84 an ounce.
NEWS SUMMARY: Stocks worldwide began 2016 sharply lower after a 7% drop in the Chinese stock market triggered China's new circuit breakers which halted trading. Meanwhile, precious metal prices lurched higher on safe haven buying.
Gold Rises as Investors Seek Refuge -Wall Street Journal
"Gold prices rose Monday as investors sought havens amid instability in the Middle East and fresh concerns over global growth. Gold futures were up $19.90 or 1.9% at $1080.10 a troy ounce on the Comex division of the New York Mercantile Exchange....On Sunday, Saudi Arabia cut off diplomatic relations with Iran as tensions rose, following the Kingdom’s execution of an Iranian cleric."
Real Money Insures Wealth -Pat Boone/YouTube
"Insurance protects us from major catastrophes and gives us peace of mind. It’s wise to insure our most precious assets, like our life, health and property. but what about our wealth? I’ve found a simple way to protect my investments from the unexpected: I own gold as wealth insurance. If there’s no return on my insurance, am i angry? Heck no! It’s the same with owning gold as wealth insurance. The purpose of my gold is to protect my assets from a crisis. Truth is, gold's not an investment at all - it’s real money!" watch
Stocks begin year with big hangover -CNBC
"Markets are starting off the new year with a bang. U.S. stocks opened sharply lower in a global equities sell off that started with a report showing a tenth month of decline in Chinese manufacturing. Already there were hangovers from the old year - like concerns about oil oversupply, weak global growth and how frequently the Fed will raise rates....Iranian protesters burned and attacked the Saudi embassy in Tehran, and Saudi Arabia cut off diplomatic relations with Iran. Oil rose as a result, with international benchmark, Brent crude, up 2.8 percent Monday....'It's is a wake up call to the growing geopolitical and economic uncertainties around the globe,' said Sam Stovall, chief equity strategist at S&P/Capital IQ."
"The Big Short" affirms Wall Street cynicism -NY Times
"When four outsiders saw what the big banks, media and government refused to - the global collapse of the economy - they had an idea: The Big Short....A true crime story and a madcap comedy, a heist movie and a scalding polemic, 'The Big Short' will affirm your deepest cynicism about Wall Street while simultaneously restoring your faith in Hollywood....It’s a trip. At the end, your brain hurts and you feel sick to your stomach, as can happen when too much adrenaline has been surging through your system. But that queasy, empty feeling is the point: This is a terrifically enjoyable movie that leaves you in a state of rage, nausea and despair." watch trailer here