Taiwan Plays Middle Between U.S., China -ABC

Taiwan Plays Middle Between U.S., China -ABC

Dec 10, 2003


TAIPEI, Taiwan Dec. 10 — The Taiwanese president's plan seemed clever at first: Excite voters, embarrass rival China and make history by holding Taiwan's first islandwide referendum a vote about whether the massive Chinese military should stop pointing hundreds of missiles at the tiny island.

The program began unraveling quickly when one of Taiwan's biggest supporters, President Bush, expressed serious concerns on Tuesday. Now, there's talk that the unpredictable Taiwanese leader pushed too hard, and the referendum could be in jeopardy.

The events highlight a political reality for Taiwan: China can be boldly challenged, but America shouldn't be messed with. As the most important power broker in the Taiwan Strait, Washington's words count the most.

Bush's warning marked the sharpest U.S. rebuke of President Chen Shui-bian since the former Taipei mayor was elected nearly four years ago. The most stinging thing about it was that Bush dressed down Chen while China's new premier, Wen Jiabao, sat by his side in the White House.

Although Bush didn't specifically oppose the referendum planned for March 20 the same day Chen seeks re-election the president warned that he opposes "any unilateral decision by either China or Taiwan to change the status quo."

Taiwan got the message. Any referendum threatens to shake the delicate balance across the 100-mile-wide Taiwan Strait.

Beijing believes self-ruled Taiwan is part of China, and it fears the Taiwanese might vote to reject this sacred belief and chose a permanent split. So for China, even referendums on mundane issues pose a threat of leading to an independence vote which Beijing has threatened to use force to stop.

A war could quickly involve the United States, which has defended Taiwan before.

Until now, Taiwanese leaders didn't dare test the referendum taboo, but Chen's Democratic Progressive Party has long held that the Taiwanese have the right to vote on their future. A law legalizing referendums was passed last month.

China complained and issued some bellicose threats. But Chen didn't care and may have even welcomed the bluster. His poll numbers usually go up when China threatens the spunky Taiwanese.

But Chen's referendum dream was also too much for America, said David M. Lampton, professor of China studies at Johns Hopkins University. Chen has inserted himself in U.S. politics at a bad time, with Bush burdened with Iraq, Afghanistan and North Korea, he said. The Taiwanese president has also been showing little regard for U.S. interests, he added.

"I think you've just seen a progressive overplaying of his hand by Chen, and finally ... President Bush in his own way said, 'I've had enough,'" Lampton said.

"What he (Bush) has done is to make it clear that Chen Shui-bian did not have a blank check to be filled out in American blood."

FULL STORY

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