April Blog Archives 2018

Gold last traded at $1,319 an ounce. Silver at $16.40 an ounce.

NEWS SUMMARY: Precious metal prices backpedaled Monday on profit-taking and a stronger dollar. U.S. stocks traded lower as telecommunication stocks declined following an announcement that T-Mobile will buy Sprint for $26.5 billion.

An Update On Gold's True Fundamentals -Seeking Alpha
"The fundamental backdrop (from gold's perspective) is little changed since 20th March. In fact, it has not changed much since early this year....It's possible for a tradable rally in the US$ gold price to get underway at a time when the fundamental backdrop is not gold-bullish, but for this to happen the sentiment situation as indicated by the Commitments of Traders data would have to be very supportive or the US$ would have to be very weak....Based on how I expect the fundamentals to shift over the weeks ahead, my guess is that a substantial gold rally will begin from a May-June low."

Redefining Humankind -Pontification Blog
Vermont's self-described socialist U.S. Senator Bernie Sanders would guarantee a government job paying at least $12-15 an hour plus health benefits to anyone in America who 'needs or wants one.' This would do more than cost taxpayers hundreds of billions of dollars annually. It could devastate consumers by prompting millions of minimum wage employees to quit and work instead for the government, which might send the cost of hamburgers and thousands of other items skyrocketing. Minimum wage employers would be forced to automate, further shrinking the private sector and the traditional ladder to work and achievement. Even more will become dependent on government make-work jobs, and they will vote for the political party of ever-expanding government. In Europe, 156 experts in robotics and Artificial Intelligence have just written a letter to the European Union arguing against EU plans to redefine robots as 'electronic persons.' Their objection, say these experts, is the EU effort to hold robots individually responsible for any harm they do. This would require a costly individual insurance policy for each robot employed, which would greatly increase the cost of replacing human workers with robots. Unmentioned, as both sides know, is what giving robots the status of 'electronic persons' implies. This could give robots a theoretical array of heretofore-human rights. Only days ago, a Japanese robot won 4,000 human votes in the race for mayor in a Tokyo suburb. The real aim of the European Union, as Craig R. Smith and I explained in our book Money, Morality & The Machine, is to declare robots persons so that they may be individually taxed. Full story

Growing Concern: Foreign Investors Lose Some Hunger for U.S. Debt -Wall Street Journal
"Foreign investors' appetite this year for U.S. debt hasn't grown at the same pace as the government's borrowing needs, which some analysts worry could push bond yields higher and eventually threaten to slow economic growth. Investors in a broad category known as 'indirect bidders,' which includes both mutual funds and foreign investors, have been winning the smallest percentage of the bonds they've bid for since 2011, according to bidding data for recent Treasury bond auctions. That behavior of these bidders is crucial for the ability of the U.S. to fund itself, at a time when the budget deficit is forecast to surpass $1 trillion by 2020 and remain above that level for the foreseeable future. Foreign investors currently hold about 43% of U.S. government debt, the lowest since November 2016, a proportion that has steadily declined from its peak of 55% during the 2008 financial crisis....'We cannot exist at these growth rates with these deficit projections without foreign participation,' said Andrea Dicenso, a portfolio manager and strategist at Loomis, Sayles & Co....A weak dollar is also making it more difficult for some overseas investors to buy Treasurys by making it more expensive to hedge currency risk."

The new stock-market fear: Signs that a period of harmonious global growth is crumbling -Marketwatch
"It was just three months ago that stock-market investors were being swept up by a euphoria pinned to the idea of economic expansion taking hold harmoniously across the globe - a dynamic that hadn't occurred since the 1980s, and one that was expected to extend into 2018. However, less than midway through the year and some market participants are already spotting cracks in the notion of so-called synchronized global growth, with some fearing that a whiff of stagflation is starting to permeate. Stagflation is typically described as persistently high inflation and high unemployment, combined with weak economic demand....The rise in commodities translates into higher costs for corporations and consumers alike, higher costs that may be tough to swallow amid any genuine signs of pullback in economic expansion in its ninth year in the U.S....Economic growth in the U.S. has tapered a tad, with the first-quarter gross domestic product, the official scorecard for the economy, coming in at the slowest pace in a year owing to a big pullback in consumer spending."

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Gold last traded at $1,323 an ounce. Silver at $16.40 an ounce.

NEWS SUMMARY: Precious metal prices rose Friday on bargain-hunting despite a firmer dollar. U.S. stocks traded mostly lower as big tech stocks slipped, economic growth slowed and investor momentum stalled.

Ignore Gold's Shot-Term Momentum And Play The Long-Term Trend -State Street Global Advisors -Kitco
"The U.S. Dollar has pushed to its highest level since mid-January, which has driven gold prices to a one-month low, but one gold market analyst said that it is essential for investors to pay attention to the long-term trend. George Milling-Stanley, head of gold investments at State Street Global Advisors, the marketing agent of the largest gold-backed exchange traded fund, SPDR Gold Shares, said that the U.S. dollar has been in an 18-month downtrend and still has a long way to go to signal a significant momentum shift. At the same time, gold prices have been in an uptrend since late 2015 and the rally has only accelerated....'Gold investors are paying a lot more attention to long-term trends than this short-term momentum,' he said. 'Investors are a lot more interested in diversifying into safe-liquid assets and gold is the first real liquid asset.'....With the current market conditions, Milling-Stanley reiterated his call that gold prices will eventually push past $1,400 before the end of the year. He added that he is not expecting to see a significant quiet period for gold this year. Geopolitical uncertainty and further weakness in equity markets should continue to support gold prices through the summer months. 'I think this year when people start to sell in May they are going to start taking more defensive positions and that will support gold prices,' he said."

Collector discovers his 'fake' coin is rare California Gold Rush piece, worth millions -Newsweek
"One coin collector now knows it's always worth getting a second opinion after a piece he was once told was a fake, ended up being valued at millions of dollars. The man from New England, who wishes to remain anonymous, had shown his 1854-S Half Eagle $5 coin to other collectors, trying to assess whether it was indeed produced by the San Francisco Mint at the height of the California Gold Rush. But given that it only three such coins were believed to have survived, he was told that it was likely to be counterfeit. Unconvinced, he took the advice of another dealer, and brought it to the Numismatic Guaranty Corporation (N.G.C), the world's largest rare coin authentication company. The experts there compared it to the three coins known to remain in existence. 'He was stunned when we informed him that it is a genuine, multimillion-dollar, rare coin,' N.G.C. chairman Mark Salzberg told PR Newswire. 'It's like finding an original Picasso at a garage sale. It's the discovery of a lifetime,' he added. Only 268 of the coins were struck at the mint."

U.S. Growth Cools to 2.3% As Gains in Consumer Spending Ease -Bloomberg
"Gross domestic product, the value of all goods and services produced in the nation, rose at a 2.3 percent annualized rate after climbing 2.9 percent in the prior quarter, the Commerce Department reported Friday....'The biggest question is what's going to happen in the second quarter,' said Jacob Oubina, senior U.S. economist at RBC Capital Markets....The results underline the difficulty of achieving President Donald Trump’s goal of 3 percent sustained growth, despite corporate and individual tax cuts that went into effect in January. Other figures on Friday cast a shadow over the strong, synchronized global upswing: Europe's economy lost momentum in the first quarter as expansions slowed from the U.K. to France, partly because winter storms ripped through the region. Consumer spending, the biggest part of the economy, rose 1.1 percent, matching estimates and marking the smallest gain since 2013....The slowdown in U.S. consumer spending reflected slower auto sales as well as purchases on clothing, footwear, food and beverages, according to the report."

The Real Reason the U.S. Goes to War -Bonner/Bonner And Partners
"The 'laws' of finance are pretty simple. 'As you sow, so shall ye reap,' it says in the Bible (Galatians 6:7). 'By the sweat of thy brow you will eat food until you return to the ground,' it adds in Genesis 3:19. You can't fake it....And a boom purchased on credit always turns into a bust of credit deflation. Why, how, and when that credit bust will come is what we look for - in our dot patterns - in this Diary. But we can't help but notice similar patterns in other aspects of human life. One of the lessons learned over thousands of years of bitter experience was the one that Athens ignored: You shouldn't go to war unless you have to....No major media body in the U.S. even bothered to investigate the alleged reason for the Syria attack: the use of chemical weapons on civilians. Later, when it became clear that the whole story was likely fake news, the media described the bombing in Syria as 'symbolic,' or a 'warning' to the Assad regime....Any fool can see that these wars will be, at best, useless... at worst, disastrous. But Congress and the administration are in favor of them. The media is behind them. And Big Business and Wall Street make money from them. These wars are not 'mistakes,' in other words. They are intentional uses of the sword - not to win wars, but to win money and power."

Responsibility Is the Antidote to the Poverty Mindset -FEE
"Recently a psychologist friend was singing a familiar refrain: 'My clients want their problematical circumstances alleviated, but few want to change how they see the world.' My friend's caring for his clients and concern over the waste of human lives is palpable. 'People aren’t meant to do nothing,' he laments,'and the poverty mindset I see has absolutely nothing to do with race.' Dr. Anthony Daniels corroborates the observations of my psychologist friend. In his many books and essays, Daniels, writing as Theodore Dalrymple, describes the mindset of the underclass in England....'I never saw the loss of dignity, the self-centeredness, the spiritual and emotional vacuity, or the sheer ignorance of how to live, that I see daily in England... the worst poverty is in England - and it is not material poverty but poverty of soul. This poverty of the soul is by choice....What about racism? Dalrymple again says no, writing, 'It will come as a surprise to American readers, perhaps, to learn that the majority of the British underclass is white and that it demonstrates all the same social pathology as the black underclass in America - for very similar reasons, of course.' Dalrymple agrees that the 'welfare state' is destructive, but he also believes the welfare state made the underclass 'possible, not inevitable.' 'An added ingredient is obviously necessary.' That 'added ingredient,' Dalrymple believes, is the mindset of the underclass....What is essential is for the poor to experience a mindset shift towards taking more responsibility for their lives."

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Gold last traded at $1,317 an ounce. Silver at $16.49 an ounce.

NEWS SUMMARY: Precious metal prices eased back Thursday on upbeat data and a firmer dollar. U.S. stocks cheered quarterly earnings results from some of the biggest U.S. companies.

Americans are hoarding money in their checking accounts — and that could be a problem -Marketwatch
"How much money is in your checking account? Here's why it matters - and what it might say about you. Markets are experiencing another period of volatility this week, and new research suggests checking account customers are doing something that indicates they don't feel as secure as they would like about the economy. They're not feeling as safe as some economists would have expected....'The consumer in banks, thrifts and credit unions by region, state, city and asset size keeps warehousing more checking dollars,' said Michael Moebs, economist and Chief Executive of Moebs Services. 'The average Joe and Jane still are very leery of the economy.'....Consumers had the least amount of money in their checking accounts in 2007, when times were good just before the Great Recession. In fact, they had on average less than $1,000 in their account. Since 2008, the checking account customer has been hoarding more money. And today? The average checking account customer has more than $3,700 stashed away."

Cash "Vanishes" From Bank Accounts -Zero Hedge
"Your money in your bank account can vanish. That is the lesson from yesterday's enormous screw-up by Ulster Bank that saw payments and bank account balances suddenly vanish. Customers were left out of pocket and struggling for funds. Payments including salaries were not made, cards were declined and customers were unable to pay for urgent goods and services. Ulster Bank has blamed the issue on 'human error' and claims this morning that the issue has been rectified....Many customers found themselves unable to access their accounts, whilst some even had access to other peoples' money....Credit scores and ratings could be damaged and relationships with individuals' creditors may be impacted. This weekend's 'magic money moments' in both Ireland and the UK are the most recent example of something we have long discussed - cash in the bank is not your cash. You are an unsecured creditor and your cash can just disappear and there is very little you can do about it....Disappearing cash is a reality which will likely come to bank accounts everywhere with increasing frequency....The lesson here is that investors, savers and indeed companies should consider taking some of their hard earned savings and capital 'off line'....Physical gold that is allocated and segregated is about as out-of-the-system as you can get when it comes to investments and savings."

Americans just made a major about-face on the stock market for the first time since Trump's election -Business Insider
"Americans have turned on the stock market - for now. People who expect the stock market to fall over the next year now outnumber people who predict the opposite, according to the Conference Board's April survey of consumers. The index that tracks expectations for a decrease frequently zooms past the index that tracks an increase. But this happened in April for the first time since the US elections in November 2016, when the stock market extended what became known as the Trump rally. Stocks peaked this past January after a 22% surge in the prior year, the second-best annual gain since the Great Recession."

Bitcoin is the greatest scam in history -Recode
"I'm tired of saying, 'Be careful, it's speculative.' Then, 'Be careful, it's gambling.' Then, 'Be careful, it's a bubble.' Okay, I’ll say it: Bitcoin is a scam. In my opinion, it's a colossal pump-and-dump scheme, the likes of which the world has never seen. In a pump-and-dump game, promoters 'pump' up the price of a security creating a speculative frenzy, then 'dump' some of their holdings at artificially high prices. And some cryptocurrencies are pure frauds. Ernst & Young estimates that 10 percent of the money raised for initial coin offerings has been stolen. The losers are ill-informed buyers caught up in the spiral of greed. The result is a massive transfer of wealth from ordinary families to internet promoters. And 'massive' is a massive understatement - 1,500 different cryptocurrencies now register over $300 billion of 'value.' It helps to understand that a bitcoin has no value at all. Promoters claim cryptocurrency is valuable as (1) a means of payment, (2) a store of value and/or (3) a thing in itself. None of these claims are true....Cryptocurrency is best-suited for one use: Criminal activity. Because transactions can be anonymous - law enforcement cannot easily trace who buys and sells - its use is dominated by illegal endeavors. Most heavy users of bitcoin are criminals, such as Silk Road and WannaCry ransomware. Too many bitcoin exchanges have experienced spectacular heists, such as NiceHash and Coincheck, or outright fraud, such as Mt. Gox and Bitfunder. Way too many Initial Coin Offerings are scams - 418 of the 902 ICOs in 2017 have already failed....All of this would be a comic sideshow if innocent people weren't at risk. But ordinary people are investing some of their life savings in cryptocurrency. One stock brokerage is encouraging its customers to purchase bitcoin for their retirement accounts!"

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Gold last traded at $1,322 an ounce. Silver at $16.50 an ounce.

NEWS SUMMARY: Precious metal prices dipped Wednesday on profit-taking and a firmer dollar. U.S. stocks extended losses as investors fretted over downbeat earnings and rising interest rates.

Retiring broke? More than half of Americans at risk of it happening -USA Today
"If you're falling behind on your retirement savings, you're not alone. Roughly 61% of Americans have less than $100,000 in total savings, and around 42% of those people have saved $10,000 or less, according to a recent GoBankingRates survey. The No. 1 reason people gave for not having much stashed away? That they don't earn enough money to be able to save anything. No matter how much money you make, it's important to save for retirement unless you plan to work the rest of your life....If you're stuck in the starting gate because you're worried small contributions are worthless, it's better to put whatever you can toward your retirement fund while time is on your side."

Welcome to the Class War -Pontification Blog
"In the Great Class War between the 'rich' and the government, whose side are you on? This week MarketWatch reported that by 2030, 'the richest 1%' are on track to 'control nearly 66% of the world's money.' This is approximately $305 Trillion, it reported, based on data from the hard-left British newspaper The Guardian, best-selling French Marxist economist Thomas Piketty, and other sources with comradely views....Such words are intended to stoke jealousy and envy behind a mask of compassion and fairness. It is unjust, we are to think, that a utopia of pure equality is being thwarted because wealth is redistributed by capitalists instead of socialists. In the United States the top 1% pays 45.7% - 2.7 times their 'fair share' - of individual income taxes. Under the even-more-Progressive income tax of the new tax law, the top 20% will pay 87% of the total....Does Class Warfare produce a healthy society? No, it produces an attitude that those richer than you deserve to have their money taken away and given to you....The rich own a fortune in land and fancy homes, say socialist Class Warriors. But do the rich really 'own' what they pay others for? Stop paying the de facto rent of whatever property tax the government demands, and their land will soon be taken by the state. Government can also use its eminent domain powers to confiscate property. Government ultimately 'owns' all the land, and 'controls' all the money. So who is the real enemy of the people in the Great Class War? Full Story

Grumpy Investors Can’t Find Anything to Look Forward To -New York Times
"The stock market is forward-looking. That's a problem when there's not much to look forward to. Stocks sank for the fourth-straight day on Tuesday, as investors looked past a series of outwardly positive earnings reports and fixated on threats to the nine-year-old bull market. Foremost among them is the Federal Reserve. Super-low interest rates from the central bank have fueled the rally, pushing up the prices of stocks and bonds since the Great Recession....The threat of a trade war, or even a real war, is unnerving investors. Oil prices have surged higher because of tensions in the Middle East, as well as President Trump's public musings about withdrawing the United States from its nuclear deal with Iran. Those rising commodity prices represent something of a double worry for investors...making it even more likely that the Fed will continue to raise interest rates....In short, it's up to companies themselves to give investors reasons to believe their shares can keep climbing. Recent earnings reports suggest that is becoming harder to do."

Democrats' Latest Big Gov't Idea: Guaranteed Jobs For Everyone! -Investors
"Big Government: If you want an indication of how far out into left field the Democratic party has moved, look no further than the briefing book distributed at a Democratic confab in Atlanta last week. One of the ideas: a guaranteed job, courtesy of the government. Attendees at the closed-to-the-press 'Democracy Alliance' conference each received copies of a 187-page briefing book titled 'Everyone's Economy,' according to the Washington Free Beacon....The book contains an enormous laundry list of far-left policies: a $1.4 trillion a year single-payer health care plan, $2 trillion in spending on infrastructure, a $15 minimum wage, a raft of new mandatory worker benefits, amnesty for 11 million illegal immigrants, repeal of most of the Trump tax cuts, increases in Social Security and welfare benefits, free college, student loan forgiveness, a ban on fracking, a $35/ton carbon tax, subsidized day care, etc. If you think this is the wish list of a fringe-left group, think again. Most of the proposals in the briefing book are based on legislation already introduced by Democrats, or policies championed by party leaders and presidential contenders Hillary Clinton and Bernie Sanders....Given that, it's worth highlighting one of the big policy ideas contained in this book that we hadn't heard of before, but that is yet another sign of the party's leftward lurch: A guaranteed government job 'to anyone who applies with demonstrated need.'....The real goal of this idea - aside from creating a new army of government-dependent Americans - appears to be to do what labor unions no longer can: spark wage inflation....You could hardly ask for a program more ripe for waste, fraud and abuse....So, in short, the 'guaranteed job' idea is hugely expensive, wildly impractical, massively wasteful and will cause enormous labor market distortions."

Michael Savage goes to Washington - the White House included -Washington Times
"It is indeed a political and cultural moment. Talk radio kingpin Michael Savage has been in the nation’s capital this week - a man on a mission, and then some. Mr. Savage, who has not been in Washington for three decades, arrived Sunday and has been broadcasting his daily syndicated show to 10 million listeners via a studio in Washington. He has been a guest at the White House, not only at a West Wing breakfast, but for the state luncheon honoring visiting French President Emmanuel Macron. Mr. Savage had a noteworthy conversation with President Trump in the Oval Office on multiple topics, he says, and another with Sen. Lindsey Graham, South Carolina Republican. Much more talk is likely Wednesday when Mr. Savage goes to the Capitol, he says, to meet with 'leading conservatives.' 'I'm in awe of our great nation,' Mr. Savage told his listeners, following his experiences. 'Washington is much more beautiful than the media would lead you to believe,' he said, also advising that the battle is on for the 'soul of the nation.' On Friday, Mr. Savage heads back to his home base of San Francisco. His take on it all? 'I was called to the mountain,' Mr. Savage advises."

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Gold last traded at $1,333 an ounce. Silver at $16.70 an ounce.

NEWS SUMMARY: Precious metal prices rose Tuesday on safe-haven buying and dollar weakness. U.S. stocks fell sharply as investors were disappointed with the latest earnings and interest rates jumped to levels not seen in years.

Silver Has Potential For 50% Rally - Bloomberg Intelligence -Kitco
"Fundamentals are in place for precious metals, especially silver, to significantly break out of current trading ranges, according to a report from Bloomberg Intelligence. The report said that silver has a history of lagging its industrial metals companions and can rally as much as 50% by simply 'catching up.' 'Essentially unchanged from June 2016, silver has plenty of room to catch up to the 50% rally in the Bloomberg Industrial Metals Spot Index and 3% decline in the trade-weighted broad dollar,' the report said. 'It's been about 50 years since silver's 12-month range was this narrow, increasing the likelihood of a sharp rally.'....Mike McGlone, senior analyst at Bloomberg Intelligence, said that fundamental macro forces, especially a weakening dollar, remain the key catalysts for a potential breakout of range-bound commodities like precious and industrial metals....'Despite the Federal Reserve's accelerated rate-hike schedule, the dollar declined. Down remains its longer-term path of least resistance,' the report said....Similar to silver, gold is also to benefit from current market conditions, according to the report."

"America's History Has Been Forever Changed!" -Craig R. Smith/Coast to Coast AM
Unbeknownst to most Americans, on March 23, 2018, the course of American history was forever changed as the result of irresponsible government leaders from both parties. "The consequences will soon impact the lives of every man, woman and child for decades to come," Swiss America Chairman Craig R. Smith said last night to millions of Coast to Coast AM listeners. Mr. Smith went on to explain why the passage of the $1.3 Trillion Omnibus spending bill, which funds the federal government until Sept. 30, 2018, marks the beginning of the end of America. When asked his market outlook Craig then detailed why many billionaires, like Microsoft founder Bill Gates, big Hedge fund manager Ray Dalio, and JP Morgan co-president, Daniel Pinto are now calling for a major drop in the markets very soon. Mr. Smith believes our nation faces only two options to bring the U.S. economy back into balance; a total global debt reset, or massive money printing, resulting in inflation. When host George Noory asked about the future prospect for gold prices, Craig said he shuns specific predictions, but for the first time in his 36 years of leading Swiss America, he sees the possibility of $5,000 an ounce gold, given the current global debt. Smith's passion could be felt over the airwaves, as he challenged listeners to take action, by getting educated and protecting the next generation from the crushing debt that our political leaders are laying upon them. Craig ended the interview by offering a free copy of his latest special report, THE CRASHLESS SOCIETY.

Kunstler: "America Has Become An Alzheimer Nation" -Zero Hedge
"America has become Alzheimer Nation. Nothing is remembered for more than a few minutes. The news media, which used to function as a sort of collective brain, is a memory hole that events are shoved down and extinguished in. An attack in Syria, you ask? What was that about? Facebook stole your…what? Four lives snuffed out in a… a what? Something about waffles? Trump said… what? Let's pause today and make an assessment of where things stand in this country as winter finally coils into Spring. As you might expect, a nation overrun with lawyers has litigated itself into a cul-de-sac of charges, arrests, suits, countersuits, and allegations that will rack up billable hours until the Rockies tumble. The best outcome may be that half the lawyers in this land will put the other half in jail, and then, finally, there will be space for the rest of us to re-connect with reality. We really have reached limits for an industrial economy based on cheap, potent energy supplies....We've been papering this problem over by borrowing so much money from the future to cover costs today that eventually it will lose its meaning as money - that is, faith that it is worth anything. That's what happens when money is just a representation of debt that can't be paid back....Lately, this game of pretend has sent the financial corps into a rapture of jubilation. The market speed bumps of February are behind us and the road ahead looks like the highway to Vegas at dawn on a summer's day....The true message of income inequality is that the nation as a whole is becoming incrementally impoverished and eventually even the massive 'wealth' of the one-percenters will prove to be fictitious, as the things it is represented in - stocks, bonds, currencies, Manhattan apartments - hemorrhage their supposed value. The very wealthy will be a lot less wealthy while everybody else is in a life-and-death struggle to remain fed, housed, and warm....What lies ahead is contraction. Of everything."

This Is The Most Valuable Commodity of the 21st Century -INC.
"The refrain of, 'if it's free then you are the product,' has become part of our common vernacular. Clearly, nothing is free, it's only the currency in which we pay that differs. While the price paid for the use of social media may not be coming out of your bank account, it is most certainly coming out of something that is quickly turning into the single most valuable long-term commodity of the 21st century - your digital self....The good news is that, as it stands now, your digital self is still horribly disconnected with no single owner to make sense of it all....Perhaps what's most surprising is that none of this should surprise us. We've been giving up our identity, habits, and behaviors with utter abandon for some time....An immutable digital persona could have the single greatest impact on society since the advent of property rights. The opportunity to use our digital selves for interaction, collaboration, innovation, personal safety, community building, giving a voice to those otherwise disenfranchised humans who live in isolation and whose plight has been easily ignored or silenced, and the creation of global economic value for all, are incredibly positive advances in the human condition as well as the evolution of a just and prosperous society."

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Gold last traded at $1,324 an ounce. Silver at $16.58 an ounce.

NEWS SUMMARY: Precious metal prices retreated Monday on short-term profit-taking as the US dollar rose. U.S. stocks traded lower as 10-year bond yields approached 3 percent.

Oil Is Fast Approaching $70. Is the Economy Ready for It? -Wall Street Journal
"Oil prices are headed toward $70 a barrel, a weight on the U.S. economy that is bearable for now but could pose trouble if prices keep climbing. The last time U.S. oil prices were at $70, in 2014, they were in the middle of a steep collapse. Many investors believed then that prices would soon stabilize, or even recover. Instead, they continued to plunge, eventually hitting a bottom in 2016 at $26. That tumble caused acute pain for oil producers, whose troubles rippled out into stocks, bonds and the broader economy."

Financial Cycles with Craig R. Smith -Coast to Coast AM with George Noory
Tonight at 10pm to midnight (Pacific Time) - Monetary expert Craig R. Smith will discuss how government policies are affecting market cycles, what he sees for the near future and the long term, and how vital it is to be prepared for the unexpected in today's fragile world. Craig will discuss the value of the dollar in the world market and how to thrive in today’s economy.

Don't miss Mr. Smith tonight as he discusses what to expect next on both Wall Street and Main Street. Here is a LISTEN LIVE LINK to hear the show 10pm to midnight (PDT). Craig will be offering listeners a free copy of his Special Report THE CRASHLESS SOCIETY.

America's Economy Whimpers... It Doesn't Roar -Bonner/Bonner And Partners
"After the second-longest expansion ever… 'more than full employment'… inflation under 2%… stocks near record highs… and a 400% increase in the S&P 500…shouldn't everyone be rich? And from the White House we hear that not only is the economy great... it's getting better! Donald J. Trump: 'America is strong and roaring back. Paychecks are climbing. Tax rates are going down. Businesses are investing in our great country. And most important, the American people are winning.' It really seems to be the best of times and the worst of times. Or... is this 'best of times' story a form of fake news? Colleague and budget advisor under President Reagan, David Stockman, has done a superb job of sorting through the data. 'Paychecks are keeping pace with inflation, nothing more. Just as they did during the Obama years. Real business investment has been on a downward trend for at least the last 7 years. That trend is still in place....Which leaves the American people not winning at all. They have only been able to continue spending by taking a half-billion dollars out of their savings… leaving them deeper in debt and more vulnerable to a downturn than ever before.'....The strength of the U.S. economy is fake news. But in public policy, fake news is the only kind of news there is…"

Dollar Advances as Treasury Yields Flirt With 3% -Bloomberg
"The dollar rallied to its highest level in more than three months as the prospect of yields on benchmark U.S. Treasuries reaching 3 percent reignites demand. U.S. equities fluctuated. The greenback strengthened against major peers as the yield on the U.S. 10-year note hit 2.99 percent for the first time since 2014 before paring the increase....'The entire market is watching that rates move and if we manage to break and extend higher the dollar will follow,' wrote Brad Bechtel, global head of FX at Jefferies, in a note Monday. 'If we fail and resume lower again the dollar will likely follow that too.'"

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Gold last traded at $1,335 an ounce. Silver at $17.14 an ounce.

NEWS SUMMARY: Precious metal prices eased back Friday on profit-taking and a firmer dollar. U.S. stocks fell as Apple declined over 3%, dragging down the tech sector.

ETF Manager Renounces Emerging Markets to Pile Into Gold -Bloomberg
"What do you do when you're sure global stocks are running out of gas, rising rates are about to pummel bonds and your models show the only emerging market worth a bet is India? You buy gold, of course. Fritz Folts did just that earlier this year after slashing his holdings of exchange-traded funds backed by stocks and cutting to zero his exposure to broad emerging-market ETFs, focusing instead on the U.S. and Japan. He says...markets aren't paying enough heed to the next round of U.S. Federal Reserve hikes. '2017 has left the building,' said Folts, 60, who oversees $800 million as chief investment strategist and managing partner at 3EDGE Asset Management LP in Boston....'We will definitely have more volatility this year,' Folts said. 'And gold can help us there.'"

Oil Is Breaking Out, So Are Inflation Expectations -Knowledge Leaders Capital
"After spending the last four months consolidating gains, crude oil is breaking higher again, and it's taking inflation expectations with it. The break higher in crude isn’t surprising given that oil fundamentals haven't been this good in years. Neither is the break higher in inflation, which we expect to tend towards 3% over the coming quarters for headline CPI and 2.5% for core CPI. The two are related, of course, to the extent that rising oil prices feed into inflation. Still, it's helpful for investors to receive confirmatory signals from multiple asset classes of a particular outcome, in this case rising oil prices and higher inflation expectations. At this juncture, it's also noteworthy that gold - an obvious beneficiary of higher inflation expectation - is at the top of its multi-year trading range, but has not yet broken out of that range. A sustained move higher inflation expectations could be the catalyst that pushes gold to multi-year highs too."

Baby Boomers fall short on emergency savings, put retirement at risk -USA Today
"You need money in the bank for a rainy day. Unfortunately, most older workers are sorely lacking in this regard. New data reveals that Baby Boomers are relatively ill equipped to cover financial emergencies. Roughly 70% of older workers have just $5,000 or less in immediate savings, according to data from the Insured Retirement Institute. And that means they're not only putting their near-term finances in danger but their retirement as well. What happens when an unexpected bill lands in your lap that your paycheck and minimal savings can't pay for? It's easy: You wind up in debt. Now debt can be problematic for workers of all ages, but it's especially troublesome for older workers for a couple of reasons. First, if you're using your spare cash to make your debt payments, that money might take the plan of late-in-life retirement plan contributions, thereby stunting your long-term savings. Furthermore, you'll risk taking that debt with you into retirement, where it might monopolize a large chunk of your limited income until you pay it off....Build an emergency fund with at least three months' worth of living expenses, and ideally more like six months' worth."

Mortgage rates roar to a fresh 2018 high -Marketwatch
"Rates for home loans surged on strong economic data, taking the benchmark rate to its highest point so far this year. The 30-year fixed-rate mortgage averaged 4.47%, according to Freddie Mac's weekly survey, out Thursday. That was five basis points higher than in the previous week, and the highest for the popular mortgage product since January 2014. The 15-year fixed-rate mortgage averaged 3.94%, up from 3.87%. The 5-year Treasury-indexed hybrid adjustable-rate mortgage averaged 3.67%, up from 3.61% last week. Those rates don't include fees associated with obtaining mortgage loans....Hints of firmer inflation, which would erode the value of fixed-income assets, have weighed on bond prices, which move inversely to yields....Demand is much stronger than supply, pushing prices up and forcing buyers to make tough decisions."

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Gold last traded at $1,345 an ounce. Silver at $17.23 an ounce.

NEWS SUMMARY: Precious metal prices held near recent highs despite a firmer dollar. U.S. stocks fell on downbeat Apple earnings as investors also fretted over rising interest rates.

Investing advice: Should I invest in gold and silver? -USA Today
"Gold and silver work well as a store of value. There's a finite amount of gold and silver in the world, so their value tends to keep up with inflation, for example....Stocks and bonds are valuable because of the income they can generate (either immediately or over time) for their owners. Gold's value is based solely on what someone else is willing to pay for it....I have some of my own money in precious metals, mainly as a hedge against inflation. During periods of high inflation, it's entirely possible, if not likely, that gold and silver will outperform stocks. However, over time, you're better off keeping your money in a diverse portfolio of productive assets like stocks, bonds, real estate, and other things that generate returns that can compound or be used as income."

NOTE: The smartest way to view owning physical gold and silver is not as just another investment, but also as your bedrock financial insurance and portfolio anchor; especially during times of market volatility. We recommend diversifying at least 10% to as much as 25% into tangible assets for liquidity, protection, growth and privacy.

Inflation is the 'mother of all risks' to the market now, Deutsche Bank says -CNBC
"Forget a potential trade war, geopolitical unrest or the D.C. chaos. Rising inflation is the single biggest risk to investors now, according to an analysis from Deutsche Bank. 'I think inflation is the mother of all risks here,' Torsten Slok, the firm's chief international economist, said Tuesday in an interview on CNBC's 'Trading Nation.' Traditional measures of inflation in the U.S. have steadily risen in recent months, after anemic price pressure for the near decade since the end of the global financial crisis. At a time when the Federal Reserve is hiking interest rates and the economy is broadly enjoying a recovery, uncertainty surrounding the re-emergence of substantial inflation has once again captured the market's attention....We didn't see inflation for the last few years, so what's different today?...The answer can be found in a weak U.S. dollar"

IMF: Global debt now higher than before financial crisis -Sky News
"Global debt levels are now higher than before the financial crisis, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) has warned. In research released on Wednesday, the fund said that the total stock of public and private debt around the world has hit $164trn. At 225% of global GDP, this is 12% of GDP higher than the previous peak in 2009. The analysis, contained in the fund's Fiscal Monitor, will increase pressure on policymakers around the world to take their feet off the economic accelerator pedal, reining in spending plans and stifling cheap credit. However, the fund's analysis also pointed out that levels of public debt are set to rise sharply in the US, where President Trump's tax plan involves significantly higher borrowing in the coming years."

$100 oil is back on the table as OPEC stays strong on tightening production limits -USA Today
"Oil prices will rise to $100 per barrel if Saudi Arabia gets its way. Only a week ago, news surfaced that Saudi officials were quietly hoping to push oil prices up to $80 per barrel, which would help boost the valuation of Saudi Aramco IPO. But why not $100 per barrel? Reuters reports that Riyadh would be fine with prices rising that far, which lends weight to the notion that OPEC will keep the production cuts in place even as its mission to drain surplus oil inventories around the world appears to be largely 'accomplished.'"

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4.18.18 - The End is Near for the Bull Market

Gold last traded at $1,348 an ounce. Silver at $17.16 an ounce.

NEWS SUMMARY: Precious metal prices rose Wednesday on safe haven buying and a flat dollar. U.S. stocks traded modestly higher on upbeat earnings from Morgan Stanley and United.

Gold up as investors hold onto positions; but risk appetite remains -Reuters
"Gold turned positive on Tuesday as some investors held onto positions, while a sharper risk appetite benefited cyclical assets at bullion's expense as the U.S. dollar's recovery from three-week lows versus the euro added pressure on the metal. Gold rallied to a 2-1/2 month high last week as heightened tensions over Syria and U.S. sanctions on Russia sparked a drop in equities and ratcheted up interest in nominally defensive assets. Tensions have since eased, though concerns over Russia sanctions plans still linger. 'People are reluctant to get out of their gold positions. Although the tensions have eased recently, I don't think they're ready to let go of their gold completely,' said Ryan McKay, TD Securities commodities strategist. 'The market's waiting to see what the Fed is going to do; if they're going to have the data to move rates," said Walter Pehowich, Dillon Gage executive vice president of investment services."

Morgan Stanley issues warning that the end is near for the bull market -CNBC
"Investors hoping that tax cuts and aggressive government spending plans will add another leg to the bull market likely are going to be disappointed, Morgan Stanley argues in an analysis that contends the end of big returns is near. The firm maintains that boosts from fiscal policy are largely priced into the market and unlikely to last much longer....The 31-page research paper said, 'While there's a fair amount of debate about how much this fiscal expansion extended the economic cycle, for markets our analysis suggests we're closer to the end of the day than the beginning.'....Riffing on the Ronald Reagan slogan of 'Morning in America,' the strategists said this period is more like 'happy hour in America.'"

Majority Of Investors Starting To Cash Out, Convinced Market Peaks In Second Half -Zero Hedge
"One month ago, Morgan Stanley ominously predicted that the market hit its 2018 - and perhaps cycle - highs in the late January melt up. And, according to roughly 18% of respondents in the latest, April, Global Fund Manager Survey conducted by Bank of America, (in which 176 participants with $543bn responded to the Global FMS questions), that's exactly what will happen. However, according to no less than 40% of global financial 'smart money', the market peak won't hit until the second half of 2018....As a result of this growing skepticism that the market peak is just around the corner, the survey respondents' allocation to equities fell to an 18-month low of just 29% (net), down from net 41% overweight in March. At the same time, equity hedging levels hit 18 month highs cash balance levels rose from 4.6% to 5.0%."

Looming Debt Crisis Isn't Just A Fiscal Crisis — It's A Crisis Of Morality -Investors
"America is perched atop a time bomb. The explosion of federal debt to more than $20 trillion will have real consequences. Deep down, we Americans agree with economist and presidential advisor Herb Stein: 'If something can't go on forever, it will stop.' Yet the U.S. Congress refuses to reduce spending. Why? Because the American public refuses to demand congressional action. There are two primary aspects to our spending crisis: the staggering explosion of federal debt and the accompanying increased dependency upon the government by much of our population. While most of the debate is couched in fiscal terms, the heart of the question is really moral. Both are deadly serious....In 1960, government entitlement spending was a mere $24 billion — or $134 per citizen. By 2019, federal entitlement spending had soared to $7,200 (or approximately $1,000 in 1960 dollars) for every American. These programs were designed not only to eliminate poverty but to eradicate the root causes of poverty. The results? The overall poverty rate in 1966 stood at 14.7%, while in 2013 it stood at 14.5% — basically unchanged. By any standard of measurement, these programs were a disastrous 'investment.'....We have, in American Enterprise Institute President Arthur Brooks' words, 'Become a nation of takers — not makers.' Over the years, millions of Americans have become 'takers.' In 1950, only one in 25 Americans received any government aid, but by 2012, it was one in three....The American public must demand spending reductions from our elected leaders - in 2018 - before it's too late. Fiscal responsibility and moral rectitude demand it."

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Gold last traded at $1,349 an ounce. Silver at $16.78 an ounce.

NEWS SUMMARY: Precious metal prices steadied Tuesday on upbeat stock earnings and a firmer dollar. U.S. stocks rose as Goldman, Netflix & UnitedHealth earnings lifted investors’ spirits.

$1,400 Gold Coming Up -Seeking Alpha
"If you look at the economy, especially the retail sector, with record numbers of stores closing, and higher interest rates threatening corporations, along with a widening trade deficit due to Trump administration policies, including tax reform, and a ballooning debt to GDP ratio, which mathematically is unsustainable, it all leads me to be cautious that the gold market might be anticipating something greater than what we just witnessed this past weekend in Syria....Take advantage of the volatility of the gold market, which appears to be increasing, and what I believe is going to be an explosive move in the price of metals that could surpass recent moves and challenge four-and five-year highs....Some of the early indications suggest that we could potentially accomplish a price range that is record-breaking, reaching new highs in the last 10% of the 9-year cycle. Such a move puts into place in 2018 the possibility that within the next few months a record-breaking acceleration could develop."

The Key to Financial Freedom -Craig R. Smith Special Report
"As a father of two daughters and a new granddaughter, I have been reflecting upon what - in addition to my heart-felt love, faith and values - I can pass on to my children that will be most precious 20 years from now. Almost all parents feel the same. We are giving our children the large legacy of our reckless spending, a stone of debt heavy enough to crush their hopes, dreams, and future. Our legacy to future generations will be a national debt that the Congressional Budget Office calculates will grow by an average of $1.6 Trillion each year for the next 10 years, raising America's immediate national debt to as much as $36 Trillion. This is like handing your child a credit card already maxed out at $160,000 - the amount of debt per person our government has already agreed to borrow and spend beyond its income - and expecting your child to make the payments!....The good news is that our children and grandchildren, and perhaps our nation, can be saved from over 100 years of debased money and a politically- manipulated economy ... if wise action is taken to put away the life-saving antidote to this deadly debt disease immediately!" Watch 5-min. video

When Failing to Prepare is Preparing to Fail -TCW
"A financial asset is nothing more nor less than a claim on future cash flows. So, when asset prices motor ahead of incomes or profits, it means fundamental valuations have deteriorated. Let the fundamentals erode long enough and far enough, and financial instability is ensured. How could it be otherwise? Asset prices are the sum total of stocks, bonds, and real-estate. When asset prices are high relative to GDP, chances are good that you’ll encounter some combination of stretched P/Es, outsized ratios of real estate prices to household incomes or rents, and bond yields that are too low or credit spreads too narrow. Since asset prices and incomes must, over sufficiently long periods of time, follow an interlocked trajectory, an episode of asset price inflation will invariably sow the seeds of its own destruction. In this cycle, the de-coupling of asset prices and GDP has been extraordinary and is largely attributable to the central banks' collective flood of cheap credit....But trees don't grow to the sky. The Fed is, at long last, tip-toeing its way to a rate normalization....the Fed is out of reasons/excuses to further delay raising rates....When the investment cycle is young or mid-stage, 'risk-on' strategies swim with the tide. Portfolios with higher 'ex-ante' yields generate higher 'ex-post' returns. Late in the cycle, this relationship reverses and rather than yield being the condition precedent to gains, it becomes a leading indicator of principal impairments. The time to prepare for adverse outcomes is always before the bear market. Those who do not heed the signs of danger will learn, first hand, why in investing, 'Failing to prepare is preparing to fail.'"

Cuba After the Castros -Pontification Blog
"Cuba was once the third most prosperous nation in the Western Hemisphere, before Fidel Castro replaced capitalism with a communist dictatorship that turned it into one of the poorest, with an average monthly salary of $31. Fidel died in 2016 at age 90. The Castro dynasty ends this week when Fidel's younger brother, former head of the secret police Raul Castro, retires after 10 years as Cuban President. (He will remain head of the Communist Party.) His hand-picked successor is said to be Miguel Diaz-Canel, who turns 58 this week, a committed Communist whose past is almost unknown to the press....The new Cuban dictator faces difficult challenges. His island survives mostly by free oil from the Communist dictatorship of Venezuela, also a sinking economy kept in power by more than 14,000 Cuban secret police....Cubans understand the evils of Communism and tend to vote Republican...We need to learn why so many Cubans were willing to risk their lives by fleeing from the Castros to find economic and personal freedom."

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Gold last traded at $1,350 an ounce. Silver at $16.67 an ounce.

NEWS SUMMARY: Precious metal prices inched higher Monday on political uncertainty and dollar weakness. U.S. stocks rose as Syria fears eased and investors turned their attention to earnings.

Syria attack: Will Russia launch CYBER warfare? Expert says it is Imminent -Express
"The attack on Syria by Western powers has fueled fears that Russia will retaliate with a cyber attack against UK hospitals and other services including air traffic control. But will Russia launch cyber warfare against Britain? One expert believes havoc could be on the way. Counter-terrorism expert Michael Clarke, who specializes in defense studies, has urged the public to be ready for 'cyber warfare' within the next two or three weeks. He said: 'I suspect Russia will choose not to respond in military terms. But cyber warfare is highly likely. It will be an attack on national infrastructure, not just upsetting city firms, but getting inside the transport system, or the health system, or air traffic control. It could affect everyone.' The UK, US and France launched 105 missiles at suspected chemical weapons sites in three strikes in Damascus and near Homs on Saturday....Presidents Assad and Putin have both dismissed reports of a chemical attack in Syria, which led to Saturday's air assault. A senior Russian military official said 71 of the missiles were intercepted but the Pentagon called the mission a success."

The War the Deep State Doesn't Want to Win -Bonner/Bonner And Partners
"Earlier in the week, it sounded as though The Donald was ready to send in missiles to Syria, to avenge a gas attack. We were worried. 'Does the president realize that this is meant to be a fake war?' we wondered. Americans have no business in Syria - on either side - and have no idea what is going on there… or why. But that's fine for a fake war, right? If there's not really anything at stake, you don't have to worry about winning. In fact, it's best not to win… so you can keep the power and money flowing - from the many in the public to the few insiders in the military/security industry. On the campaign bus, Donald J. Trump suggested that he would put a stop to these unwinnable wars… and as recently as last Thursday, he said: 'Let the other people take care of it now. Very soon, very soon, we're coming out… We're going to get back to our country, where we belong, where we want to be.' Yes, home is where we Americans want to be. But the Pentagon and its crony suppliers can't make much money if the U.S. minds its own business. And it is now a Deep State requirement that the president gets behind the foreign wars. That means a bigger budget for the military… and more misadventures overseas. Someone from the Deep State (he is surrounded by them) must have reminded him. By Wednesday of this week, Mr. Trump was back on message: 'Get ready Russia, because they will be coming, nice and new and 'smart!' You shouldn't be partners with a Gas Killing Animal who kills his people and enjoys it!....And the world sighs...and turns its attention to another fake war... the war between The Donald and the Deep State."

Jim Rogers: Enjoy This Market Hoorah Before the Worst Correction of Your Lifetime -Kitco
"Legendary investor Jim Rogers says market participants should enjoy the rally in stocks while it lasts, issuing a dire warning that 'the worst correction of his lifetime' is coming. U.S. stocks opened higher on Monday as the corporate earnings season continued, with Bank of America reporting better-than-expected quarterly results. 'Soon something's going to happen that will make everyone happy again and the market will go up one more time, and that will probably be the last hoorah. Next year will be not a lot of fun,' Rogers said in an interview with Kitco News on Monday. He added, 'It's been 10 years since we have had a bear market. That is very, very unusual, so the next bear market is going to be the worst in my lifetime.' When promoted to quantify the correction, Rogers said it would easily be over 50%....Before this is over, gold is going to go through the roof - when people lose confidence in governments and paper money, they always buy gold and silver, whether they should, is irrelevant, they always have,' Rogers, the 75-year-old chairman of Rogers Holdings Inc., said."

Both Parties Have a Plan for the Debt: Do Nothing -Samuelson/Real Clear Markets
"The Congressional Budget Office last week released its annual budget and economic outlook report, and although the news was gruesome, the report was greeted in Washington with a giant yawn. The assumption among Republicans and Democrats is that the political rewards for curbing runaway budget deficits are too meager to justify the risks. There's a consensus to do nothing - and to hope that nothing goes disastrously wrong. Just how large are impending deficits? Here are the CBO projections. From 2019 to 2028, the federal government will run cumulative annual deficits of $12.4 trillion....No one knows the consequences of these unprecedented peacetime deficits, but the CBO has listed some possibilities: They may further raise interest rates, which would increase deficits, squeeze other federal programs and crowd out borrowing by businesses....Government might find it difficult to respond to national emergencies, whether war, natural disaster or a financial crisis....We could face a full-blown debt crisis....Social Security and other 'safety net' programs would have to be reduced, possibly through higher eligibility ages and more means-testing....The longer this continues, the riskier it becomes. On this, the conservatives and liberals probably agree."

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Gold last traded at $1,345 an ounce. Silver at $16.65 an ounce.

NEWS SUMMARY: Precious metal prices rose Friday on safe haven buying and a flat dollar. U.S. stocks fell despite upbeat bank earnings on rising geopolitical and economic worries.

Why gold remains the safe haven asset of choice in times of geopolitical uncertainty -Proactive Investors
“Is there going to be a significant escalation of the war in Syria, now that President Trump is threatening missile strikes?....Gold is famously correlated inversely to the dollar and since the dollar has been weak of late the price is relatively strong, at just over US $1,340 per ounce. But there is an exception. In times of significant geopolitical uncertainty, the so-called 'safe haven' attractions of gold tend to override the influence of the dollar in pricing, as investors seek shelter in the world's oldest store of wealth....If the jungle drums of war start beating loudly, then uncertainty rises and the gold price does too. That's not just because the value of other assets becomes more questionable, or because earnings and profits are likely to fall. It's also because the dangers of that huge derivatives book unwinding suddenly leap back into the forefronts of investors' minds....Historically, cattle, land and gold have been the three great stores of wealth. Real estate has held its relative value more than cattle, but it is less easily exchanged. For the risk-averse, gold remains the only significant option."

The Day That Changed America's Future -Craig R. Smith/Swiss America
"On March 23, 2018, unbeknownst to most Americans, the course of U.S. history was forever changed by irresponsible government leaders from both parties. On that fateful day, the massive $1.3 trillion, 2,232-page omnibus spending bill (which no one even took the time to read) tossed financial sanity out the window. The consequences will soon impact the lives of every man, woman and child for many decades to come. Such profligate government spending impacts the younger generations especially hard, as they are buried alive under this massive future debt; which already amounts to $160,000 for every household in the nation. Imagine handing your child a credit card maxed out at $160,000 in debt and expecting them to make the payments! Career politicians seem to believe debt and deficits don't really matter; but I say they matter a lot, on both governmental and household levels. Spendthrift leadership breeds spendthrift consumers....No wonder so many big time investors, like Microsoft founder Bill Gates, Hedge fund manager Ray Dalio, and JP Morgan co-president Daniel Pinto are calling for a big drop in the stock market sometime soon. Sadly, we never seem to learn the lessons of market crashes in the past, so we must repeat them. The way I see it, our leaders will soon face two options to bring the U.S. and world economy back into balance, a huge increase in consumer inflation - as the Fed struggles to reflate the economy – or, investors will face a major drop in asset values. Neither one will be neat or pretty. And we can’t rule out both!" Full story

Looming 'debt hangover' will crush the economy -CNBC
"At some point in the near future, the U.S. will have a debt hangover. We will wake up and feel the effects of continued government spending, the persistent lowering of tax revenue, ballooning mandatory social welfare payments, and ever-increasing interest payments. It is not going to feel good. How did we get here? Currently, the publicly held U.S. national debt is 75 percent of GDP...Before the 2008 recession, the publicly held U.S. national debt was roughly 35 percent of GDP. Why did the debt grow by 40 percentage points over the last 10 years? Government spending. The government spent their way out of the recession. A group of economists at the White House and in the Federal Reserve encouraged fiscal and monetary authorities to continue issuing debt and deficit spending, or borrowing to spend....The Congressional Budget Office said on Monday that by 2047, if we maintain our current trajectory of fiscal policy, our debt-to-GDP ratio will hover around 150 percent. That would put the U.S. in between what Greece and Italy are experiencing now. This number is bad news for the U.S. economy....Right now, the U.S. is not equipped for dealing with this looming debt hangover."

Financial crisis awaits if anti-Trumpers keep rumbling -Crudele/New York Post
"The financial markets this week gave us a taste of what the reaction to true chaos in the Trump administration could look like. Stocks were up sharply in the final hour of trading on Monday when all of a sudden the big gain turned into an itty-bitty one. Someone obviously knew ahead of time that the office and home of Donald Trump’s personal lawyer, Michael Cohen, had been raided by the FBI at the behest of special counsel Robert Mueller. Before the close of trading, the Dow Jones industrial average was up by as much as 440 points, but it ended Monday's session with just a 46-point gain....If the Democrats somehow succeed in toppling the Trump administration or at the very least limiting the president's ability to negotiate deals, make decisions on national security and do other things that presidents do, we are heading for a constitutional crisis that’s worse than we saw in the 1970s during Watergate. Wall Street isn't going to like that. The quickest way to a constitutional crisis would be if Trump fires Sessions, and his new attorney general gets rid of Mueller. Or Trump could go after Mueller directly."

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Gold last traded at $1,341 an ounce. Silver at $16.47 an ounce.

NEWS SUMMARY: Precious metal prices retreated Thursday on political backpedaling and a firmer dollar. U.S. stocks rebounded after president Trump said Syria attack may not be imminent.

'Nervous' Investors Pile Into Gold ETFs -Bloomberg
"Anxious investors from Germany to China are seeking shelter in gold ETFs. Holdings in all bullion-backed exchange-traded funds tracked by Bloomberg extended their ascent to the highest since 2013, rising for a fourth straight session in the longest run since January. Xetra-Gold, the third-largest commodity-linked ETF, had almost 177 million shares outstanding as of Monday, the most since the Frankfurt-listed fund started trading in 2007. While equities rebounded Tuesday after Chinese President Xi Jinping struck a conciliatory tone in remarks on trade disputes with the U.S., geopolitical angst is driving demand for gold as a haven. 'We've seen volatility risk in the stock market, and geopolitical risk concerning the situation in Russia and the Middle East,' said Michael Blumenroth, an analyst at Deutsche Bank AG who writes a weekly market report published on Xetra Gold's website. German investors aren't alone. China's Bosera Gold ETF has attracted $610.8 million this year, putting it on course for the biggest annual inflow since it was listed in Shenzhen in 2014. New York-listed iShares Gold Trust has attracted $1.49 billion in 2018, the biggest inflow of all commodity ETFs."

'Take your money and run.' Investor David Tice warns on 'pretty dangerous' stock market -CNBC
"The investor known for running a bear fund suggests a stock market crash may be virtually unavoidable - citing Federal Reserve Policy and geopolitical risks. In a note to CNBC, David Tice wrote that investors should 'take your money and run.' 'You guys have enjoyed the party,' he said Wednesday on CNBC's 'Trading Nation.' 'There are a lot of people dancing. But I think that could be pretty dangerous. I'd say the last couple of 10 percent declines were a sign that the band is about ready to go home.' Tice has viewed the February correction as a foreshock - predicting stocks could lose 20 to 25 percent of their value by year's end...'All this volatility with the VIX having doubled is very, very disturbing,' said Tice. 'We're testing 200-day moving averages on some of the hot stocks like Google and Facebook.' Tice, who sold his Prudent Bear Fund to Federated Investors in 2008 just as the financial crisis was unfolding, wasn't in the bear camp much of last year. On 'Trading Nation' last July, he urged investors not to bet against stocks. According to Tice, Fed rate hike cycles historically lead to recessions and deep market declines. He says this time is no different because the market is very overvalued. He reiterates that investors should consider buying gold. 'In this kind of environment with geopolitical uncertainty and trade uncertainty, you've got to be in gold,' Tice said."

The Zuckerberg Collusion -Wall Street Journal
"What is the main reason Mark Zuckerberg was hauled in front of three committees of Congress? It is because the media connected a long series of dots to suggest the possibility that Russian bots exploited the personal Facebook data obtained by a firm named Cambridge Analytica to . . . put Donald Trump in the White House. Without the link to collusion - an infinitely elastic phrase with no legal meaning - Mr. Zuckerberg never would have had to leave Menlo Park....Despite the legislators' thunderings about regulation, the likelihood of the House and Senate enacting rules for the web is more remote than Halley's Comet, due back in 43 years....Mr. Zuckerberg divided his prepared testimony between two subjects. The first, headlined 'Cambridge Analytica,' was a proxy for the personal-privacy issue; the other was 'Russian Election Interference,' a proxy for the collusion obsession....Zuckerberg said Facebook was aware of 'traditional' Russian cyberthreats 'for years,' including a group called APT28....Buried beneath the subsequent stampede toward 'collusion' was the report's extensive description of U.S. intelligence's longstanding, pre-Trump concerns about a Russian 'network of quasi-government trolls.'....But somehow all this suspected Russian interference wasn't worth putting in front of American voters until after they elected Donald Trump. Some 15 months later, the Russian-collusion grand opera has degraded into an FBI smash-and-grab operation against Trump lawyer Michael Cohen to find payoffs to porn stars....Of more pressing concern are Mr. Zuckerberg's thoughts on what he keeps calling the values of the Facebook 'community.' Meaning what? A primary criticism of social-media platforms like Facebook is that they expose users to content that encourages 'hate' or is 'hurtful.' Facebook’s answer to this perceived problem has been to hire some 15,000 people dedicated to 'community operations and review,' with more monitors on the way."

Gold is taking back its crown from bitcoin as best defensive play, strategist says- CNBC
"Gold soared to two-year highs this week as uncertainty rattled the market. The bull run isn't over yet, says one strategist. 'I am a buyer. I really do like it,' Boris Schlossberg, managing director of FX strategy at BK Asset Management, told CNBC's "Trading Nation" on Wednesday. It's 'retaking its mantle as the key defensive asset against bitcoin, which has certainly suffered a lot over the last couple of months.'...Gold's rise is not a new development, says Chris Verrone, head of technical analysis at Strategas Research Partners. In fact, its rally has been years in the making. 'This improvement in gold is now about 4 or 5 years old,' Verrone told CNBC on Wednesday. 'We have this big base that's been taking shape really since late 2012.' Gold prices found a bottom in early December 2015 after hitting a multiyear high in late 2012. Since that low, gold has surged 28 percent to trade at around $1,347 an ounce."

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Gold last traded at $1,360 an ounce. Silver at $16.76 an ounce.

NEWS SUMMARY: Precious metal prices rose sharply Wednesday amid geopolitical fears and a weaker dollar. U.S. stocks traded lower after Trump warned Russia to 'get ready' for missiles coming to Syria.

Gold is nearing its best level in 4 years after Trump warns Russia to 'Get ready' -Market Insider
"Gold spiked Wednesday morning after President Donald Trump warned Russia about its cooperation with the Syrian government, and extended its gains over the course of the morning. The precious metal is currently trading up 1.34% near $1,359 an ounce. 'Russia vows to shoot down any and all missiles fired at Syria,' Trump tweeted. 'Get ready Russia, because they will be coming, nice and new and smart! You shouldn’t be partners with a Gas Killing Animal who kills his people and enjoys it!' Wednesday's advance has the precious metal on track for its best close since March 2014. It would have to take out $1,366 for its highest print of 2018."

Jerome Is The New Janet: Tie, Trousers And Same Old Keynesian Jabberwocky -David Stockman's Contra Corner
"Trump's new Fed chairman, Jerome Powell, amounts to Janet Yellen in trousers and tie. In fact, you can make it a three-part composite by adding Bernanke with a full head of hair and Greenspan sans the mumble. The overarching point here is that the great problems plaguing American society - scarcity of good jobs, punk GDP growth, faltering productivity, raging wealth mal-distribution, massive indebtedness, egregious speculative bubbles, fiscally incontinent government - are overwhelmingly caused by our rogue central bank....The Donald came to Washington threatening to drain the swamp and ended up appointing to the one job that could have made a difference a crony capitalist Keynesian who was literally born and bred in the Washington DC Swamp and never left it during his entire adult life....We turn today in rebuke of Jerome Powell's positively deceitful speech on 'The Outlook for the US Economy' recently delivered to the Economic Club of Chicago....Call the Powell speech what you will, but we think it's just more jabberwocky designed to rationalize an illicit central banking regime which is rotten to the core. Needless to say, when an unelected, all-powerful arm of the state lies to the people systematically there has got to be a con job in there somewhere. And this time even Wall Street has lost track of the scam." Full story

All this volatility is following one bear’s script for a 60% tumble in the stock market -Marketwatch
"Stocks were pulling back early Wednesday after the prior session's big rally, and longtime bear John Hussman warns it's this kind of volatility on the Dow DJIA, and the S&P 500 SPX, that only serves to reinforce his pessimistic view that the market is careening toward a painful drop of at least 60% and a decade or more of zero to negative returns. 'We're observing the very early effects of risk-aversion in a hypervalued market,' the Hussman Trust president wrote in his latest missive. 'To some extent, the actual news events are irrelevant. I certainly wouldn't gauge market risk by monitoring the day-to-day news on potential tariffs or even prospects for rate changes by the Fed.' For those of you feeling a bit queasy because of what Hussman describes as the 'rather minimal level of volatility' we’ve seen lately, it's time to make some changes and rebalance your portfolio with some hedges, or at least lighten up by adding cash....The driving factor he frequently cites for the top-heavy market is that the Fed's quantitative easing has inflated valuations to unsustainable levels, and as the free money goes away, the bottom will fall out, leaving a trail of blown-up investors. 'Investment is about valuation. Speculation is about psychology,' Hussman said. 'Both factors are unfavorable here.'"

Inflation shows strongest annual gain since early 2017 -CBS News
"U.S. consumer prices rose 2.4 percent in March from a year earlier, the fastest annual pace in 12 months. The Labor Department said Wednesday morning that on a monthly basis, the consumer price index declined 0.1 percent in March. However, the index's yearly gain suggests that inflation pressures may be picking up. Excluding the volatile food and energy categories, core prices ticked up 0.2 percent in March and 2.1 percent from a year ago. That was the biggest annual increase since February 2017....Capital Economics U.S. economist Andrew Hunter noted in a statement that 'the recent strengthening of monthly price pressures suggests that core inflation will continue to trend higher this year.' He added that when looking at the results overall, 'the recent inflation data keep the Fed firmly on track for another 25 [basis point] rate hike in June. With underlying producer price inflation already at a seven-year high and the tightening labor market set to put upward pressure on wage growth, we expect a continued rise in inflation to prompt Fed officials to raise rates four times in total this year.'"

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Gold last traded at $1,345 an ounce. Silver at $16.59 an ounce.

NEWS SUMMARY: Precious metal prices rose Tuesday on safe haven buying and a weaker dollar. U.S. stocks rallied as trade war fears eased after Chinese President Xi Jinping discussed plans to open up the country's economy.

Gold Prices Are Primed for a Bull Run -Money Morning
"Gold prices may have seemed volatile last week, but they've actually been trending steadily higher and are on the verge of a bullish breakout. And despite another run by the U.S. Dollar Index to challenge the 90.50 level - for the fourth time since mid-January - it proved too difficult once again. In fact, the dollar should have gotten even more help on Friday, as U.S. Federal Reserve Chief Jerome Powell gave his first speech on economic outlook since taking on his new position two months earlier. Powell said labor markets remained tight and that inflation was expected to rebound within the next few months, supporting further rate hikes. Instead, the dollar backed off, and gold maintained its strength as markets sold off hard once again....Gold has maintained its upward trendline, which has acted as support for new higher lows since late 2015. We also can see an upward trend channel, with the top line acting as overhead resistance. The top of that channel is near $1,400, which is certainly a threshold that's likely to get a lot of observers excited about gold."

Volatility Is Back. Scarred ETF Investors Aren't -Wall Street Journal
"The case for buying into volatility is the best it has been in years. Rising interest rates, fears of a trade war and a rout in technology stocks have triggered big swings in U.S. stocks, a contrast after an extended period of market calm. The S&P 500 stock index has moved more than 1% on 10 of the past 15 trading days, while the Cboe Volatility Index, known as the VIX, is up 97% this year. The VIX ticked higher on Monday after the Dow Jones Industrial Average erased most of a 440-point gain following reports that federal investigators had searched the office and home of Michael Cohen, President Donald Trump's longtime lawyer. The market swings have made investments that track Wall Street's fear gauge among the year's top performers....Despite those gains, exchange-traded products that profit from rising volatility have suffered more than $1 billion in outflows so far this year, according to FactSet. The funds have fallen out of favor in recent years as stocks climbed steadily higher and the VIX fell to record lows. 'The fact that volatility can come into favor and fall out of favor very quickly has rightfully given investors pause when chasing these returns,' said Todd Rosenbluth, head of ETF research for CFRA."

"We Understand The Chinese Government Has Halted Purchases Of US Treasuries": SGH -Zero Hedge
"According to the consultancy, SGH Macro Advisors, a long-time favorite of macro hedge funds, Beijing has twice threatened deliberately targeted tit-for-tat punitive measures against the US to date: 'first, in response to the Trump Administration's threat of steel and aluminum tariffs, and second, in response to broader measures aimed at $50 billion of products that lie directly at the heart of Chinese technology transfers, intellectual property violations, and strategic, 'Made in China 2025' plan.' But even as US cabinet officials lined up yesterday to calm jittery equity markets, SGH says in a note released over the weekend that 'China had already signaled an aggressive and potentially more ominous escalation in the developing trade wars to the White House: From what we understand, the Chinese government has halted its purchases of US Treasuries. Despite the direct encouragement, according to Chinese sources, by US Treasury Secretary Steve Mnuchin for China to stay put, Beijing has apparently discontinued purchases of US Treasuries for the past few weeks.'....While the report has not made it into the public arena, it is worth noting that 10Y nominal yields have barely moved on the news, rising from a session low of 2.78% to 2.80%, and are currently trading back with a 2.79% handle. Of course, should China proceed to announce that it is now a matter of official policy not to buy US paper, the adverse reaction will be far more aggressive."

'The Most Bullish Set Up for Silver that I Have Ever Seen' -Mound/Street Wise Reports
"We now have the most bullish setup for silver that we have ever seen. After trading sideways/down for over 20 months now, investors have completely lost interest in it, which is, of course, the perfect breeding ground for a huge rally that seems to come out of nowhere....If you know what you are looking at the 8-year chart presents a much more encouraging picture. While this chart superficially looks boring and bearish too at first sight, on closer inspection we realize that a downsloping Head-and-Shoulders bottom is completing....Silver always tends to underperform gold at the tail end of sector bear markets, which is the reason why the silver-gold ratio that we will soon look at is so important....Silver gets cheaper and cheaper relative to gold, until an extreme is reached and the pendulum starts to swing back the other way with a new sector bull market....Conclusion: A major new silver bull market looks imminent that is expected to kick off with a dramatic spike, due to a wave of panic short covering."

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Gold last traded at $1,340 an ounce. Silver at $16.52 an ounce.

NEWS SUMMARY: Precious metal prices rose Monday on bargain hunting and a weaker dollar. U.S. stocks rose on softening China trade war rhetoric and strong gains in tech stocks.

After 34 Years, We Again Have A Bill To Relink The Dollar To Gold -Forbes
"The value of the dollar was linked to gold - that is, the U.S. used a 'gold standard' - for most of the time between 1789 and 1971, a stretch of 182 years...From 1934 to 1971, the parity value was $35/oz. In other words, the dollar's value was to remain stable at 1/35th of an ounce of gold....For much of the past five centuries throughout the Western world, this was 'normal.' The floating currency environment we have today, which academic economists like to suggest is some kind of natural economic phenomenon, is actually an aberration. The dollar's value has declined to about one-thirtieth of what it was in 1970, compared to gold, with predictable consequences....In 1984, the remarkable Congressman Jack Kemp introduced the Gold Standard Act of 1984, which was cosponsored by seven others including Newt Gingrich and Connie Mack. It didn't pass. In March of this year, 34 years later, Congressman Alexander Mooney (R-WV) introduced H.R. 5404, 'a Bill to define the dollar as a fixed weight of gold.'....Eventually, someone like Alexander Mooney will introduce a bill like HR 5404, and it will pass. It will pass because it is the right thing at the right time; and also, because we have the confidence that we actually know how to do it."

Sell The Bounce? -McCullough/Hedgeye
"Key Takeaways: Global Equities (including the SP 500) are signaling lower-highs and cross asset class volatility is breaking out to the upside, Headline US GDP Growth is setting up to surprise to the downside. The Big Picture: The reasoning as to why my answer to the question in the title of this note (Sell The Bounce?) is YES has multiple-factors across multiple-durations. For many Global Equity markets we've been selling the bounce for 3-6 months....Do network tools distract you? How about stock markets that whip back and forth with 14-40 volatility? Did it matter that volatility used to be TRENDING in a range of 9-12? Even if you didn't know that wasn't normal - now you know. Not knowing is actually the point about volatility. What do you really know about what is going to be the macro market 'news' for the next 3 months? For me, on growth and inflation, I can tell you, unapologetically, that those answers change every day....What are the Top 5 (non-tariff) Hedgeye Reasons why Global Equities (including the SP 500) are signaling lower-highs? 1) Headline US GDP Growth is setting up to surprise to the downside for the 1st quarter in the last 6, 2) #GlobalDivergences continue to manifest vs. a consensus of a 'Globally Synchronized Recovery', 3) #ChinaSlowing vs. its mid-2017 acceleration, 4) #EuropeSlowing vs. its late-2017 cycle peak, 5) Mr. Market is a leading indicator - cross asset class volatility is breaking out to the upside."

A "Cashless" America Could Soon Be "Gunless" -Pontification Blog
"The United States is quickly turning 'cashless,' buying most things from automobiles to hamburgers via bank loans and credit cards. Americans carry more than a trillion dollars on what should be called 'debt cards.' Banks love cashlessness, in which more and more of what we need is not earned or saved, but borrowed for high interest. Government is even happier with the fast-arriving cashless society. Cash can be hidden, despite your bank being required to spy on you and report any odd financial activity. Government wants every transaction you make to be taxable, trackable, hackable, blockable, and used to empower Big Brother. Cashlessness in surprising ways gives vast power to government. Days ago, for example, liberal Democrat New York State Comptroller Thomas J. DiNapoli, who controls where the state invests its $209.1 Billion pension fund, sent out a letter. It went to institutions behind our credit cards - Visa, MasterCard, JPMorgan Chase, Bank of America, Wells Fargo, American Express, Discover Financial Services, and others. DiNapoli’s message was about as subtle as a guy wearing a pinstripe suit, black shirt and white tie saying: 'You gotta nice place here. Too bad if anything happened to it. But maybe I can provide you some protection.'....DiNapoli suggested that these companies look into implementing ways to block credit card purchases of firearms, ammunition, and gun accessories. The implied threat was clear: stop extending credit to gun and ammo buyers, or risk having New York State investment money taken away from your bank or credit company because the left wants to ban guns....The Federal Government has already tried such intimidation, as Craig R. Smith and I explained in our 2014 book Don't Bank On It! The Unsafe World of 21st Century Banking....If a 'cashless' government becomes authoritarian, it can not only monitor and tax everything you buy, but also ban purchases - ranging from foods it deems unhealthful to guns it deems dangerous." Full story

Americans Face Highest Pump Prices in Years -Wall Street Journal
"Americans are spending more at the pump than they have in years. Prices could rise even higher just as drivers hit the road for family vacations. 'This summer, in terms of average gas prices, will likely be the highest since 2014,' said Patrick DeHaan, petroleum analyst at GasBuddy, a fuel-tracking app. Crude prices have jumped thanks to continuing production cuts by major exporters. As a result, gasoline is also becoming more expensive. According to the U.S. Energy Information Administration, average regular retail gas prices reached $2.70 a gallon last week - the highest level since 2015. While higher fuel prices could herald an end to the glut that has plagued the energy market since 2014, they also threaten to dampen demand and hit consumers in their pocketbooks....'What we're seeing now at the pump is reflective of OPEC's decision in 2016 to cut back on oil production,' said Mr. DeHaan....Higher gas prices also have the potential to dent U.S. demand, if consumers opt to drive less. 'The rise of the use of the word 'staycation' is probably going to happen this summer. You may start to see some people that are turned off to higher prices,' said Mr. DeHaan."

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Gold last traded at $1,336 an ounce. Silver at $16.34 an ounce.

NEWS SUMMARY: Precious metal prices rose Friday as trade war fears weakened the dollar. U.S. stocks fell sharply as worries of a trade war between the U.S. and China grew.

Gold swings higher as U.S. payrolls data miss forecasts -Reuters
"Gold rose on Friday after weaker than forecast U.S. payrolls data knocked the dollar lower and as concerns over the prospect of a U.S.-China trade war kept the metal on track for a narrow weekly gain. The U.S. currency fell versus the euro and Wall Street stock futures added to losses after the report showed that the U.S. economy created the fewest jobs in six months in March, easing concerns over aggressive interest rates hikes....U.S. President Donald Trump said late on Thursday that he had instructed U.S. trade officials to consider $100 billion in additional tariffs on China, fueling an already heated dispute between the world's two biggest economies."

The Next Crisis Will Be The Last -Roberts/Real Investment Advice
"Throughout the last four decades there is a direct link between the actions of the Federal Reserve and the eventual economic and market outcomes due to changes in monetary policy. In every case, that outcome has been negative....For the Federal Reserve, the next 'financial crisis' is already in the works. All it takes now is a significant decline in asset prices to spark a cascade of events that even monetary interventions may be unable to stem. As stock prices decline: Consumer confidence falls further eroding economic growth. The $4 Trillion pension problem is rapidly exposed which will require significant government bailouts. When prices decline enough, the record levels of margin debt are triggered which creates a liquidation cascade. As prices fall, investors and consumers both contract further pushing the economy further into recession. Aging baby-boomers, which are vastly under-saved will become primarily dependent on social welfare which erodes long-term economic growth rates. With the Fed tightening monetary policy, and an errant Administration fighting a battle it can't win, the timing of the next recession has likely been advanced by several months....At some point, there will be a realization of the real crisis....The issue for future politicians won't be the 'breadlines' of the 30's, but rather the number of individuals collecting benefit checks and the dilemma of how to pay for it all. The good news, if you want to call it that, is that the next 'crisis,' will be the 'great reset' which will also make it the 'last crisis.'"

Gold Price Seen 'Moving North' as World Fails to Replace Output -Bloomberg
"Bullion prices are set to climb because there's been a lack of exploration and the global industry isn't replacing the reserves it's been mining, according to Stephen Letwin, chief executive officer at Iamgold Corp. 'Gold has a much higher probability of moving north as opposed to south,' Letwin said in an interview at a mining conference in Hong Kong on Thursday. 'I've been around a long time; when you're in an industry that's not replacing what it produces, eventually, the price has to move up.' The producer-funded World Gold Council has estimated that world supply may have peaked, while Frank Holmes, chief executive officer of U.S. Global Investors Inc., said this week that mine supply topped out in 2017 or will do so this year. Combined with understated inflation and strong demand from China and India, this could help boost prices to $1,500 an ounce by the end of the year from about $1,327 now, according to Holmes."

How China can win a trade war in 1 move -The Week
"China will not be easily cowed in a trade dispute. Chinese President Xi Jinping is now exchanging threats of tit-for-tat tariffs with President Trump, who announced Thursday he's considering raising the stakes another $100 billion. China vowed to defend itself 'at any cost.'....If things do spiral into all-out trade war, it's worth noting China has a nuclear option. I'm referring to rare earth metals. These are elements like dysprosium, neodymium, gadolinium, and ytterbium. They aren't actually rare, but they do play crucial roles in everything from smart phones to electric car motors, hard drives, wind turbines, military radar, smart bombs, laser guidance, and more. They're also quite difficult to mine and process. It turns out the United States is almost entirely dependent on foreign suppliers for rare earth metals. More importantly, it's almost entirely dependent on China specifically for rare earth metals that have been processed into a final and usable form. Basically, if China really wanted to mess with America, it could just clamp down on these exports....America's problem has never been a lack of rare earth deposits - it has plenty. The problem has been maintaining a domestic industry to mine the minerals and transform them into final components....it certainly wasn't prudent to allow China to corner the rare earth metal market. But ultimately China is just a hard-nosed global player, pursuing what it sees as its national interest."

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Gold last traded at $1,328 an ounce. Silver at $16.35 an ounce.

NEWS SUMMARY: Precious metal prices traded mixed Thursday on a firmer dollar and easing trade war fears. U.S. stocks traded higher led by tech following China trade-war concerns the previous trading day.

China, holding Treasuries, keeps 'nuclear option' in U.S. trade war -Reuters
"It took China just 11 hours to retaliate against the United States for proposing tariffs on some 1,300 Chinese products, but Chinese officials are holding back on taking aim at their largest American import: government debt. In a tit-for-tat response to the Trump administration's plan for 25 percent duties on $50 billion of Chinese imports, China hit back with its own list of similar duties on key American imports including soybeans, planes, cars, beef and chemicals. But officials signaled no interest for now in bringing their vast holdings of U.S. Treasuries to the fight. China held around $1.17 trillion of Treasuries as of the end of January, making it the largest of America's foreign creditors and the No. 2 overall owner of U.S. government bonds after the Federal Reserve. Any move by China to chop its Treasury portfolio could inflict significant harm on U.S. finances and global investors, driving bond yields higher and making it more costly to finance the federal government....'If they wanted to pull the nuclear switch, if they committed to dumping Treasuries, it would have an immediate and temporary impact on money markets in the United States,' said Jeff Klingelhofer, a portfolio manager who oversees more than $6 billion at Thornburg Investment Management Inc."

Will Trump Launch a Currency War, Too? -Project-Syndicate
"Last month, Donald Trump personally announced a series of import tariffs and other measures to restrict the flow of Chinese goods and capital into the United States. Clearly, Trump views China as a significant economic threat, so it may be only a matter of time before he sets his sights on the renminbi as well. So far, the US has imposed sweeping import tariffs of 25% on steel and 10% on aluminum, which Trump personally announced early last month....It is also tightening restrictions on corporate acquisitions and investments by foreign firms; and it has signaled its intention to challenge China's forced technology transfers at the World Trade Organization....Trump has already blocked a $117 billion bid by Broadcom - a Singapore-based firm with close ties to China - to acquire the US tech giant Qualcomm....To date, the Trump administration has not taken any direct action against the renminbi. But if it views Chinese exports and investments as a threat, it may be only a matter of time before it targets the Chinese currency, too....Most recently, China launched a new exchange for renminbi-denominated crude oil futures, which some observers see as a direct challenge to the dollar."

Bond Market Has A $745 Billion Bet Against the Dollar -Bloomberg
"Foreign holdings of local-currency debt of developing nations have swelled to near a record $745 billion, according to data collected by Deutsche Bank AG. With much of their buying at the expense of the greenback, according to this metric investors have never been so exposed to a sudden turnaround in the U.S. currency. The trade has been lucrative, handing investors returns of more than 13 percent in the past year and a 4.7 percent gain in the first quarter as most risk assets succumbed to losses....'The short dollar trade is the biggest pain trade in financial markets right now and EM local currency is a natural extension of this,' said Damian Sassower, a fixed-income strategist at Bloomberg Intelligence in New York. 'It's never been this cheap to hedge against a sharp rise in the dollar.'"

From rout to rally: The markets write off Trump’s trade-war talk -New York Post
"Some more undeniable facts: If Trump really does believe what he says and starts a trade war with China because it's 'good' for the economy, or continues to hammer Amazon's stock price over a belief the company is ripping off the Post Office and doesn't stop his inane tweets about anything that pops into his head, he risks squandering all those economic gains - and his reelection. That was the message from the wildly gyrating stock market on Wednesday, when investors were initially so spooked by Trump's clear economic naivete that it looked like we were headed for another 500-point-plus drop. Then came the new White House economic adviser, longtime free-market evangelist Larry Kudlow, to remind investors of Trump's tax cuts and deregulation and to assure them that the president isn't actually starting a trade war with China, just negotiating for better terms....And presto, the market rout turned into a rally - by one estimate, only the third time in history the Dow reversed a 500-point loss to end the day in the green. The big question is how long investors will ignore Trump's absurd economic statements, whether it's the outcome of a trade war (never good) or whether Amazon is actually screwing the US taxpayer (it isn't)....At least for now, investors believe the BS coming from the current president is much more palatable than what they've had shoveled at them the past eight years. For them, the unpredictable Trump is pretty predictable."

Growing debt among older Americans threatens their retirement -CNBC
"Debt among older Americans is rising fast. In 2016, the average debt in families in which the head of the household is age 75 or older was $36,757. That is up from $30,288 in 2010, according to a recent report by the nonprofit Employee Benefit Research Institute in Washington. High balances and calls from collection agencies can leave many older Americans feeling helpless. The average monthly Social Security check is $1,404, and more than 40 percent of single adults receive more than 90 percent of their income from that check, according to the government. Older Americans' debt can threaten this....'There's just fewer options you have at that stage of the game,' said Justin Halverson, a financial advisor and co-founder of Great Waters Financial in Minneapolis. But the situation is far from hopeless. Here's what you can do. 1) Get your budget in order....2) Do what you can....3) Consider lifestyle changes....4) Ditch the regret....'We all make mistakes,' said Halverson. 'The first step toward moving forward is looking backwards and forgiving yourself.'"

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Gold last traded at $1,340 an ounce. Silver at $16.25 an ounce.

NEWS SUMMARY: Precious metal prices traded higher Wednesday on a weaker dollar amid trade war fears. U.S. stocks traded mixed as investors reacted to the latest China trade war tariffs targeted at American goods.

Gold Is Heading to $1,400 If Trade War Breaks Out, According to Sprott -Bloomberg
"Gold will surge to the highest level in five years if a global trade war breaks out, according to Rick Rule, chief executive officer of Sprott U.S. Holdings Inc., who's been involved in the market for four decades. Bullion could top $1,400 an ounce in 2018 as escalating trade tensions drive investors to havens and the three-decade bull market in bonds nears an end, said Rule...Asia's top economy retaliated by imposing its own levies on Monday, while the U.S. is expected to release this week a new list of Chinese products to be slapped with duties. A trade war could crimp demand for U.S. assets just as the budget deficit swells, with the dollar vulnerable should international buyers shun American debt....'The fact that the U.S. seems to be bound to engage in a zero-sum trade war has begun to strike people as something that's bad for everybody in the world, not just the U.S. The potential for a winnerless trade war certainly gives cause to some concern,' Rule said in an interview March 29."

Does The Stock Market's Slide Signal Regime Shift? -Capital Speculator
"This much is clear: the sharp decline in the S&P 500 yesterday (April 2) confirms that the downside bias in the first three months of the year has spilled over into the second quarter. It's also obvious that the latest market stumble has inspired a new round of warnings from analysts. CNBC, for example, reports that 'Monday’s broad-based sell-off pushed stocks below important technical levels, signaling more pain ahead for the market.' Some analysts say that the S&P 500's close below its 200-day moving average yesterday for the first time in nearly two years marks a grim sign for a momentum-based outlook of equity prices generally....Tactical traders with a short-term horizons may find reason to be anxious these days, but investors with a relatively longer outlook might wonder if a genuine regime shift has arrived for equities....Stocks can certainly suffer when the economy's expanding, but such a slide usually requires some event that's unrelated to the economy proper. The leading suspect on that front at the moment: the rising threat of a trade war. If you're looking for a reason to worry, this is at the top of the list."

The Source of America's Economic Illness -Bonner/Bonner And Partners
"Up, down. Up, down. What to make of it? The stock market is in denial, struggling with the idea, not quite willing to give in… not quite willing to admit that the bull market of 2009 - 2018 is over. Of course, we could be wrong. We frequently are. But the big risk you face… is that we're right....Many people, including the president, seem to think we are in some kind of boom. But there is no evidence of it. GDP growth rates continue to slow and are in danger of going negative at any time – watch out for the readings from the first quarter; they could be shockingly low....Economist Richard Duncan summarizes: 'The combination of trillion-dollar-a-year budget deficits and Quantitative Tightening will drive the Liquidity Gauge into record negative territory this year. Next year and the year after, the Liquidity Drain will become even worse. This is creating a toxic environment for investors. Only a trade war could make matters worse.'"

Dems take GOP - and future generations - to the cleaners -Edwards/The Hill
"The 2,232-page omnibus spending deal signed into law last week threw fiscal sanity out the window. While entitlement spending has continued to grow, the relative restraint in discretionary spending had provided hope that federal budget control was possible. But that hope is now dashed under this president and Congress. The omnibus hiked discretionary spending 13 percent in a single year, while scraping the budget caps that were the singular achievement of reformers after the landmark 2010 election. President Trump included substantial cuts in his recent budget, but signing the omnibus made a joke of his own proposals for fiscal restraint. The GOP’s discretionary budget actions and the relentless rise of health care and retirement spending have put the budget on a catastrophic course....No one knows the timing of the coming crisis, but we do know that younger generations will get hammered under the massive debt, which already amounts to $160,000 for every household in the nation. Young people will be forced to pay a rising share of their earnings to foreign and domestic creditors....In the omnibus deal, the Democrats took the Republicans to the cleaners. But a more unnerving upshot is that majorities in both parties seem entranced by federal spending."

Watch AMTV's Christopher Greene and Craig R. Smith explain why America has now passed the economic point of no return.

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Gold last traded at $1,337 an ounce. Silver at $16.39 an ounce.

NEWS SUMMARY: Precious metal prices eased back Tuesday on profit-taking and a firmer dollar. U.S. stocks attempted a rebound from Monday's sharp technology-led sell off.

Stocks post worst start to April since the Great Depression -CNBC
"The stock market's start to the second quarter was its worst since the Great Depression. The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 1.9 percent - or 458 points - as China's retaliatory tariffs against U.S. agricultural goods stoked fears of a global trade war. With the S&P 500 closing down more than 2.2 percent Monday, the broad market index posted its worst start to April since 1929, according to S&P Global. The index also closed below its 200-day moving average - a key technical level - for the first time since June 2016, 442 straight days. 'Based on recent market action, the bears clearly have control right now,' Bespoke Investments Co-Founder Justin Walters wrote. 'The path of least resistance is lower until something comes along to reverse that trend.' The S&P 500 fell back into correction territory Monday as technology led the market lower, with names like Amazon and Netflix both down more than 5 percent."

America’s Two-Party System Is Done -Bonner/Bonner And Partners
"The most remarkable thing about the latest federal budget is that no one seems to find it remarkable. As far as we know, no member of Congress read it. And the president - who is supposed to be the nation's chief executive officer - has only the dimmest idea of what is in it. And yet, it establishes three astonishing new things. First, governments typically promise peace and prosperity. But this budget practically guarantees war and poverty. Second, the checks and balances of the two-party system have been almost eliminated. There is only one party now: the Deep State Elite....That brings up the third big thing no one seems to care about: the finances of the richest country on earth have become a dangerous sh*thole fantasy. With the end of the two-party system, no fear of deficits, and no way to curb spending, we are now looking ahead to national bankruptcy....What will give? The stock market will crash. Then, the Fed will panic. So will the White House and Congress. Almost immediately, new spending programs - shovel ready - will appear. Deficits will soar to $2 trillion. The Fed will cover them with more fake money. Consumer prices will rise. Asset prices, in real terms, will fall....The Deep State will gain power and money; the public will suffer. Has anyone been to Venezuela lately?"

Watch AMTV's Christopher Greene and Craig R. Smith explain why America has now passed the economic point of no return.

The yuan-oil future and gold -GoldMoney
"Trading in the new Shanghai oil future commenced last Monday, and on the first three days trading there were 151,804 contracts traded with a turnover value of 65bn yuan. It is the first futures contract listed on China's mainland available to overseas users, putting them on the same footing as domestic investors. There are 15 benchmark contracts for different delivery dates between September next and March 2019. There is little doubt that the Chinese government views this contract as an important development, with international commodity trading houses, such as Glencore and Trafigura, encouraged to participate. Furthermore, state-owned banks would have been on hand to ensure the necessary currency and financial liquidity is available....This contract goes head-to-head against the petrodollar and is the first serious challenge to it since its inception in the mid-1970s. The petrodollar was born out of the monetary chaos that led to the end of the Bretton Woods Agreement, when excess dollars in foreign hands were redeemed for gold. In that sense, being the first significant threat to the petrodollar, this contract could mark the end of a monetary era....The undermining of the petrodollar's status, even though it is initially only at the margin, provides a weak background for the dollar. China's trade surplus, coupled with the US trade deficit can also be expected to continue to put downward pressure on the dollar relative to the yuan....A new era for the dollar is in prospect and the price of the dollar measured in real money, gold, seems set to decline....Therefore, physical gold prices appear at the least to be firmly underwritten, because major bullion banks can be expected to accumulate bullion."

A list of the biggest data leaks over the last six months -Fox Business
"News of data breaches exposing the personal information of customers of big companies such as Facebook, Under Armour and Equifax seems like a monthly occurrence nowadays - because is it. Over the last year, there has been a massive data breach involving big outlets every month. And this month alone, there have already been two massive breaches involving Saks, Lord & Taylor and Panera Bread....Panera Bread's website leaked customer records for at least eight months...data leak included names, email and physical addresses and the last four digits of credit card numbers of millions of customers who order food online....Hudson's Bay Company, which owns Saks and Lord & Taylor stores, confirmed that hackers stole credit and debit card information of more than 5 million of it shoppers....Under Armour announced its health and fitness app, MyFitness Pal, suffered a data security breach that exposed the personal data of roughly 150 million users....Both The New York Times and Observer broke the news that 50 million profiles of Facebook users were “harvested” without their consent to a consulting firm, Cambridge Analytica."

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Gold last traded at $1,346 an ounce. Silver at $16.64 an ounce.

NEWS SUMMARY: Precious metal prices shot up Monday on safe haven buying as China trade war fears weakened the dollar. U.S. stocks fell over 2% as a rising number of investors cashed out stock holdings amid rising FAANG stock risks and trade war escalation.

Gold Climbs After China Imposes Tariffs -Wall Street Journal
"Gold prices rose Monday after China imposed tariffs on a range of U.S. goods, following through on a promise to retaliate against the Trump administration’s penalties on imports of Chinese steel and aluminum. Gold added 0.8% to $1,337.40 a troy ounce on the Comex division of the New York Mercantile Exchange. Prices have stayed between about $1,305 and $1,360 this year, moving within that range based on safe-haven demand from investors, swings in the dollar and worries about higher interest rates. Some money managers favor gold when they think markets might turn rocky. Protectionist trade policies from the U.S. and China have stoked fears of a global trade war that leads to higher manufacturing costs and eventually slower economic growth, pushing some traders to scoop up gold....'Last night's tariff news from China spooked the market, took the dollar lower and gave us a lot of safe-haven buying in gold,' said Bob Haberkorn, senior market strategist at RJO Futures."

"Hedge What You're Afraid Of" - Goldman Urges Clients To Start Preparing For The Worst -Zero Hedge
"It's time to start hedging. That is the warning to clients from the latest report by Goldman's derivative strategists John Marshall and Katherine Fogerty, who caution that in the aftermath of the February VIX spike, as volatility increases 'so do returns from time invested in hedging strategies increase.'....The main catalyst for the bank's shift in outlook is the expectation that increases in realized volatility will force vol-targeting funds to adjust gross and net exposure, and lever appropriately, as well as have direct effects on the calculation of risk in a variety of equity portfolios....Goldman provides a handy checklist of the hedging process which, naturally, begins with 'Hedging what you Fear', which is also the focus of this particular report which looks at seven discrete factors 'weighing on investors minds' including: Credit Risk, Rate/Inflation Risk, Oil Risk, US Market Risk, US Cyclical Risk, China Risk and Europe."

Rising Rates Sounding Alarm Bells for Debt-Laden U.S. Consumers -Bloomberg
"Americans have a history of loading up on debt in good times, then paying dearly when the bills come due. Adding to the pain: A booming economy is often accompanied by rising interest rates, which make mortgages, credit cards and other debt much more expensive. As the U.S. Federal Reserve raises rates, there are signs that consumers could be putting themselves in peril....Spending on U.S. general purpose credit cards surged 9.4 percent last year, to $3.5 trillion, according to industry newsletter Nilson Report. Card delinquencies are also rising. U.S. household debt climbed in the fourth quarter at the fastest pace since 2007, according to the Federal Reserve. 'There are warning signs out there,' said Kevin Morrison, senior analyst at the Aite Group. Especially concerning is a surge in student and auto loans over the past decade, he said....Use of credit cards is rising faster than debit cards, as banks offer users lucrative rewards."

California’s Illegal Alien Voting Law IS Secession -Pontification Blog
"Mark the date April 1, 2018, April Fool’s Day, as the day Civil War 2.0 began. On that day the State of California began to automatically register illegal aliens to vote who have driver licenses. This new law immunizes illegals against any state criminal penalty for registering and voting. Leftist scholars say that our states control their voting criteria and can legally register non-citizens to vote in state, county, and local elections. States, including California, however, may not register illegals to vote in federal elections - for Members of Congress, U.S. Senators, or President. Allowing citizens of other countries vote in California would illegally 'dilute' the votes not only of Californians but those of all American citizens by giving foreigners political power in selecting American lawmakers and Presidents....California has one-quarter or more of America's illegal aliens - as well as one-third of the entire nation's welfare recipients. With a population more than 40 percent Latino, it has become Mexifornia. The new California motor-voter registration law that took effect April 1st transparently is intended to enfranchise illegals, who vote 2-1 for the ruling Democratic Party, in order to dissolve the American nation into a borderless, bankrupt, bilingual backwater ruled as a colony by a global Progressive government....Imagine a better alternative. Suppose that President Trump announces today that the new California law has made all future elections unconstitutional and illegal, because foreigners are now allowed to tilt the outcome."

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