Healthy Competition

Aug 27, 2004


Market News Digest
-> Greenspan: Risk of `Painful' Changes for Retirees
-> Gold falls as traders eye economic signs -CBSMW
-> Oil's dip fails to fuel stocks -CBSMW
-> Investors hit oil slick - USAT
-> "RIVETING!" TERRORISM PREP DVD OFFERED FREE TO PUBLIC -IFN


Commentary
-> Coins Outshine the Investment Competition -Pat Boone
-> BLACK GOLD STRANGLEHOLD -Craig R. Smith, CEO SATC
-> ALL NEWS IS GOOD NEWS?! - Bill Bonner, Daily Reckoning
-> GOP 2004 THEME: "Fulfilling America's Promise” –2004NYCGOP.org
-> BUCHANAN BOOK: 'NO CONSERVATIVE PARTY LEFT IN WASHINGTON'


FOUNDER'S QUOTE OF THE DAY

"It is the duty of all men in society, publicly, and at stated seasons, to worship the SUPREME BEING, the great Creator and Preserver of the universe. And no subject shall be hurt, molested, or restrained, in his person, liberty, or estate, for worshipping GOD in the manner most agreeable to the dictates of his own conscience; or for his religious profession or sentiments; provided he doth not disturb the public peace, or obstruct others in their religious worship."

-John Adams


Market News Digest


Greenspan: Risk of `Painful' Changes for Retirees

Aug. 27 (Bloomberg) -- Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan said time is running out for the U.S. to make the ``increasingly stark choices'' needed to pay Social Security and Medicare benefits as the baby boom generation retires.

``If we have promised more than our economy has the ability to deliver to retirees without unduly diminishing real income gains of workers, as I fear we may have, we must recalibrate our public programs so that pending retirees have time to adjust through other channels,'' Greenspan told a central bank conference in Jackson Hole, Wyoming. ``If we delay, the adjustments could be abrupt and painful.''

The U.S. budget deficit, which the Congressional Budget Office already projects to reach a record $420 billion this fiscal year, will widen ``substantially'' as the percentage of the population over 65 nearly doubles by 2035, he said.

``A doubling of the over-65 population by 2035 will substantially augment unified budget deficits and, accordingly, reduce federal saving unless actions are taken,'' Greenspan said.

Greenspan, who was president of National Commission on Social Security Reform from 1981 to 1983, has made the retirement of the baby boom generation a cornerstone of his persistent calls for Congress to improve budget planning.

Social Security tax receipts, equal to 12.4 percent of a worker's salary, won't cover the entire cost of outlays starting in 2018, according to the Social Security Trustees' 2004 report. Members of the baby boom generation, those born between 1946 and 1964, will begin retiring in the next decade.

Social Security is a political issue in the U.S. during this presidential election year. In his acceptance speech at the Democratic National Convention in Boston July 29, John Kerry suggested he would consider tax increases to close the funding gap. ``As president, I will not privatize Social Security. I will not cut benefits,'' he said.

President George W. Bush said in Las Cruces, New Mexico yesterday that younger workers should be ``concerned'' about the fiscal stability of Social Security, and again pitched privatization. ``I believe younger workers ought to be able to own a personal retirement account they call their own, so they can pass it on from one generation to the next.''

Read SOCIAL INSECURITY: The Problem and Proposed Solutions


Oil's dip fails to fuel stocks -CBSMW
Oil prices fall for the fifth day in a row
By Mark Cotton, CBS.MarketWatch.com
Aug. 26, 2004

NEW YORK (CBS.MW) -- U.S. stocks were mixed in the final half-hour of trading Thursday as a five-session decline in oil prices was offset by earnings misses from Krispy Kreme, Starbucks and Credence Systems.

Negative broker comments on the semiconductor sector also weighed on sentiment.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average was last up 2 points at 10,183. In the prior session the benchmark index closed at a six-week high.

The Nasdaq Composite fell 4.59 points, or 0.2 percent, to 1,856, while the Standard & Poor's 500 stock index edged 1.10 point higher, to 1,106.06.

"You're running into some technical resistance, and with volume being light, it's going to take a little bit of energy to run through it," said Paul Mendelsohn, chief investment strategist at Windham Financial Services.

Mendelsohn put the resistance level on the S&P 500 at around 1,105.25 to 1,110.15 and at 1,865.40 to 1,896.30 on the Nasdaq Composite.

Mendelsohn said many investors are likely to remain on the sidelines ahead of Friday's second-quarter gross domestic product revision and a key speech from Federal Reserve chief Alan Greenspan.

Over at Brean Murray, senior-vice president Mark Bryant said the focus is still very much on oil.

"The fluctuation in the price of oil vis-ŕ-vis the news that is coming of Iraq demonstrates the amount of speculation that is in that commodity right now," said Bryant.

Oil pressured by Iraq peace deal hopes

After tumbling nearly 4 percent in the prior session, oil prices fell again on hopes for an end to the tense standoff between U.S-led forces and militiamen loyal to Shiite cleric Moqtada al-Sadr, with the arrival of leading cleric Ayatollah Ali Sistani in the town of Najaf.

Sistani has apparently reached some sort of pact with Muqtada al-Sadr that will see an end to the standoff at Najaf's holy shrine, according to Agence France-Presse. An announcement by al-Sistani is planned shortly, according to CNN.

Al-Sistani had just returned from the U.K. where he had been receiving medical treatment, effectively keeping him out of al-Sadr's showdown with the Iraqi government until now.

http://www.cbs.marketwatch.com

RELATED STORY:
Stocks Are Hurting More Than the Averages Show: John Dorfman -Bloomberg


Investors hit oil slick - USAT
By Adam Shell, USA TODAY
Aug. 23, 2004

NEW YORK - Ask anyone on Wall Street what's been ailing the stock market lately, and they're likely to tell you, "It's oil, stupid!"

Ask those same investors when record-high oil prices, which have been flirting with $50 a barrel, will start to recede, and the answer is far less clear. And therein lies the biggest risk - and opportunity - facing investors.

The prices for oil and stocks have been moving in opposite directions for months. As oil prices have moved higher this summer, up roughly 30% since the end of June, blue chips in the Dow Jones industrial average have fallen more than 3% and the tech-rich Nasdaq composite has lost more than 10%.

Wall Street is now debating whether the trend of rising oil prices and falling, or stagnant, stock prices is nearing its end. Rising crude prices have been driven by speculation, geopolitical risks ranging from terrorism to Iraq, tight supply and strong global demand, especially from China.

Bulls argue that elevated oil prices are unsustainable and that a sharp downturn in the price of a barrel of crude, which closed at $47.86 Friday, down 84 cents, is inevitable. They agree with the Federal Reserve's assertion that higher energy prices are "transitory."

http://www.usatoday.com


Gold falls as traders eye economic signs -CBSMW
August 27, 2004
By Myra P. Saefong, CBS.MarketWatch.com

SAN FRANCISCO (CBS.MW) -- Gold futures moved narrowly lower Friday, with traders taking their cue from fresh economic signals to gauge what the precious metal's next move might be.

The benchmark gold contract is set to log a loss for the week, based on early action.

The U.S. economy slowed in the second quarter of the year, growing at a 2.8 percent annual rate after a growth spurt in the previous four quarters, the Commerce Department reported. See full story.

The revised gross domestic product data came in as expected, prompting mixed trading the dollar. Gold is often seen as a hedge against losses in the currency and other financial markets. See Currencies.

Traders were also eager to pour over what Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan has to say about the economy ins his speech to a conference of central bankers in Jackson Hole, Wyo.

Against this backdrop, gold for December delivery fell 80 cents to trade at $408.80 an ounce on the New York Mercantile Exchange.

Still, "overall the mixture of good physical offtake, high oil prices, and safe-haven caution ahead of the 9-11 anniversary, and [the] U.S. presidential elections should continue to provide support in front of $400, while profit taking slows upward progress from $410 to $415," James Moore, an analyst at TheBullionDesk.com said in a note to clients Friday.

http://www.cbs.marketwatch.com


"RIVETING!" TERRORISM PREP DVD OFFERED FREE TO THE PUBLIC

PHOENIX, AZ-Aug. 25-(IFN) -- TODAY Swiss America Trading Corp. released a new educational DVD exposing the strategy of radical Islamic terrorist groups -- like Hamas, Hezbollah and al-Qaeda -- to achieve "victory or martyrdom!" against the U.S., Israel and allies engaged in the growing war on terror.

"A CITIZEN'S GUIDE TO COUNTER TERRORISM" is a 'riveting' documentary-style film that underlines to the harsh realities of our post-9-11 world. You'll travel inside terrorist training camps for children, who are taught to hate and murder all "Infidels" (Jews, Americans, non-Muslims) at an early age.

According to the producer DAVID BRADSHAW, "The goal of this DVD is to both 'shock and offer' viewers tangible steps to "ramp up" family and financial security on a household level, while the government does the same on the national and international level."

Narrated by entertainer PAT BOONE, the DVD advises viewers to take five basic steps of emergency preparation (recommended by Department of Homeland Security and American Red Cross) for disaster readiness. Boone also offers helpful tips on financial preparation, given the recent targeting of U.S. financial institutions and the Mid-East oil supply by radical terrorist groups.

According to BOONE, "Today radical Islamic warriors are willing to die to help bring America down -- both with physical attacks, like 9-11, and with planned financial attacks. Right now the enemy is busily training up the next generation of deadly terrorists -- and right NOW is the time we must all be prepared! Preparedness has no downside risk, but unpreparedness does."

On July 21, 2004, the AMERICAN RED CROSS released their latest study stating that "only one-third of Americans say that they have a basic family emergency plan — fewer than made the same claim a year ago. This alarming lack of preparedness is practically a disaster in itself."

According to Swiss America CEO, CRAIG SMITH, "Terrorism will fail in the end, but the future belongs to those who have prepared for it -- physically and financially. This educational DVD will help the public understand how simple it is to preserve our peace of mind by taking a few steps ahead of any possible emergency."

"A CITIZEN'S GUIDE TO COUNTER TERRORISM" covers all of the major types of terrorism preparedness including; chemical, biological, nuclear, radiation and economic. Produced by Idea Factory Films, the 50-minute DVD includes graphic images, expert testimony and live news segments. To request a FREE copy of the DVD call Swiss America at 800-289-2646.

#######################################

FULL STORY/:90 VIDEO INTRODUCTION WITH PAT BOONE

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REVIEWS: (Please email reviews to ideaman@myideafactory.net )

8/24/04 -- "A CITIZEN'S GUIDE TO COUNTER TERRORISM IS RIVETING! It tells the truth about terrorism and what you can do about it -- economically and practically. The powerful footage, interviews and commentary by Craig Smith and Pat Boone inform viewers about how you can be prepared. Absolutely every American must watch A CITIZEN'S GUIDE TO COUNTER TERRORISM! I'm going to show this DVD to as many people as I can."
- PAUL MCGUIRE, Syndicated Radio Talk Show Host,/The Paul McGuire Show

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COMMENTARY


Coins Outshine the Investment Competition -Pat Boone
Aug. 23, 2004

In Sports … and in Life … Competition is healthy. But, Especially in the World of Investments!

For example,did YOU know that Investment-Grade United States Gold and Silver coins are once again outshining the competition this year? It's true!

Unlike stocks bonds, or even cash, U.S. Gold and Silver coins have outperformed nearly every other asset, so far in the 21st century.

What can Americans DO to protect their Family AND their Assets -- in today’s uncertain world?

Well, for family safety, I follow what Homeland Security and the American Red Cross recommend. When it comes to asset protection, and financial safety, I take my advice from Swiss America.

You see, they’ve been helping America Rediscover Gold in the 21st century -- for Safety, Privacy AND Growth. Over recent years, the Boone gold and silver coins have outperformed almost every other asset on earth!

For nearly a quarter century, Swiss America has helped to protect AND grow American's wealth with good-old-fashioned U.S. Gold and Silver coins.

I strongly recommmend that your financial preparation for any emergency should include asset diversification that includes United States Gold and Silver coins.

The time-tested European asset allocation formula is simple; 25% in stocks, 25% in Bonds, 25% in real estate, and 25% in Precious metals.

According to Swiss America, The precious metals part of a portfolio should include a balance between gold and silver and a balance between lower-grade coins, for protection, and higher-grade coins for growth.

SO, if YOU have assets to protect, call my friends at Swiss America NOW for a FREE Information Kit. Discover how easy it is to make your assets shine, no matter how DULL it gets on Wall Street.

AND SO, with Sports … Life … AND Investing, I say that NOW is the time to "Go For the GOLD!" … with Swiss America!

WATCH PAT BOONE TV SPOT "Competition is Healthy"

* NOTE: All numbers in the above charts represent the ask to ask (retail) prices and do not include transaction costs, such as; commissions, spreads and fees. All investments have risk and past performance is not a guarantee of future performance.


BLACK GOLD STRANGLEHOLD -Craig R. Smith, CEO SATC
Aug. 23, 2004

"$50 is, I would say, a foregone conclusion." Now the market is thinking $60, possibly."
-ESA RAMASAMY, Editorial manager for oil, energy market analysts, MSNBC, 8/20/04

"The persistently high price of oil is a troubling issue for investors. It sucks purchasing power out of the pocketbooks of many Americans."
-ROBERT HORMATS, Goldman Sachs vice chairman, International, CBSMW 8/10/04

Introduction

A storm is coming - an inflationary "perfect storm" whipped up by skyrocketing oil prices that will lay waste to millions of portfolios if investors don't prepare.

Today the U.S. has less than 5% of the world's total population, but consumes 25% of the world's total supply of oil. Oil prices have jumped from $17 in 2001 to almost $50 in 2004 -- skyrocketing 55 percent in the past year alone!

CNN reports, "When the price of oil crossed $40 a barrel earlier this year, it generated nervous headlines and anxiety on Wall Street. Now it seems that $40 a barrel may have been just a step on the way to even higher prices, with $50 or more a distinct possibility in the short term."

Could oil prices hit $60, $80 or $100? They sure could. Keep in mind that today's $50 price tag is still not as high as the oil spike in the 1980s, when the Iran/Iraq war pushed inflation-adjusted oil to the equivalent of $80 a barrel today (thanks to a devalued U.S. dollar).

According to oil experts...

The world is about to run out of cheap oil forever and change dramatically. Within the next few years, global production will peak, say the experts. Thereafter, even if industrial societies begin to switch to alternative energy sources, they will have less net energy each year to do all the work essential to the survival of complex societies.

"We are entering a new era, as different from the industrial era as the latter was from medieval times. Dwindling energy resources in the 21st century will lead to resource wars in the Middle East, Central Asia, and South America," according to THE PARTY'S OVER by Richard Heinberg.

The growing Middle East control of the oil market is likely to lead to a radical and permanent increase in the price of oil before physical shortages begin to appear within the first decade of the 21st century.

Four key trends...

"RESOURCE WARS," author and International security expert Michael T. Klare argues that in the early decades of the new millennium, wars will be fought not just over ideology, but also over access to dwindling supplies of precious natural commodities. "The recent explosive conflict between the United States and Islamic extremism stands revealed as the predictable consequence of consumer nations seeking to protect the vital resources they depend on," says Klare.

In Klare's newest sequel book, "OIL WARS," he sees the nation's energy behavior as dominated by FOUR KEY TRENDS:
1) an increasing need for imported oil;
2) a pronounced shift toward unstable and unfriendly suppliers in dangerous parts of the world;
3) a greater risk of anti-American or civil violence;
4) and increased competition for what will likely be a diminishing supply pool.

Sliding down Hubbert's Peak...

HUBBERT'S PEAK: THE IMPENDING WORLD OIL SHORTAGE by Kenneth S. Deffeyes states, "The 100-year petroleum era is nearly over. Global oil production will peak sometime between 2004 and 2008, and the world's production of crude oil will fall, never to rise again. If nothing is done to reduce the increasing global thirst for oil--energy prices will soar and economies will be plunged into recession as they desperately search for alternatives."

The only answer, Deffeyes says, is to move as quickly as possible to alternative fuels--including natural gas and nuclear power, as well as solar, wind and geothermal energy. "Running out of energy in the long run is not the problem," Deffeyes explains. "The bind comes during the next 10 years: getting over our dependence on crude oil."

But that is still not the worst of a new oil shock.

Author Colin Mason, in his book "THE 2030 SPIKE: COUNTDOWN TO GLOBAL CATASTROPHE paints an even breaker picture of the future. "The 2030 decade will see six "drivers" converge with unprecedented force in a statistical "spike" on the graph paper of life. Depleted fuel supplies, rampant population growth, poverty, climate change, famine and water shortages are all on a crash course that could plunge the world into a global dark age."

Terrorist wild cards...

Then there are the terrorism "wild cards," like al-Qaeda terrorist groups which are hell-bent on bringing the U.S. down -- by using airplanes, computers or economics.

"Sell oil for gold, Mahathir tells Saudi Arabia" Forbes reported in Jan. '04, ...
"Former Malaysian Prime Minister Mahathir Mohamad said on Sunday that Saudi Arabia should sell oil for gold, not dollars, to avoid being "short-changed" by a decline in the U.S. currency ... He suggested countries tally their total annual imports and exports and settle the difference at the end of the year in "gold dinars."

Recent news supports the idea that the Gold Dinar, with support from 53 other Islamic nations, may be a planned offensive against the use of the dollar as a settlement currency for oil. It is perceived, and correctly so, that the Islamic world is controlled via the use of the US dollar as the main settlement currency. (Full Story

The economic impact of another Oil Shock...

This coming oil crisis will create economic and political discontinuity of historic proportions, as the world adjusts to a new energy environment.

According to Stephen Roach, Morgan Stanley economist, "With oil prices now in the high $40s (WTI basis), there is good reason to treat this development as yet another in a long string of energy shocks. When a weak economy is hit by any type of a shock, recession normally results."

"At the current level of around $47, oil prices are 62% above the $29 average that has prevailed since early 2000 … the "true" shock probably comes with $50 oil. That would represent in excess of a 70% surge above the post-2000 average -- enough of a spike, in my view, to put it in the ballpark with full-blown oil shocks of the past. A $10 increase in oil prices knocks about 0.4% off GDP growth. In my view, America's saving-short, overly-indebted, job- and income-constrained consumer looks as vulnerable as ever.

According to the International Energy Agency, in 2002, China's oil intensity -- primary oil consumption per unit of GDP -- was 2.3 times that of the average OECD developed country; India is even worse -- fully 2.9 times the OECD average. Little wonder that China, which makes up slightly less than 4% of world GDP, accounted for fully 7% of the world's crude oil consumption in 2003. All in all, it now appears that the world is being subjected to its fourth oil shock in 30 years." [FULL STORY

So, we facing a probable recession, if the oil spike continues AND price inflation - a financially deadly combination.

THE OIL FACTOR, by STEPHEN LEEB, editor of the "Complete Investor" newsletter, believes the U.S. economy is headed for a significant fall because of a severe shortage of oil, which has been inextricably tied to the economy for the past 30 years. "Since 1973, the economy and stock market have danced to oil's tune. Sharp rises in oil prices have led to recession/stagflation and plummeting stocks, while declining prices or prices that are just mildly uptrended have led to good times," says Leeb.

Rising oil prices bring with it rising inflation -- no rocket science here. Rising inflation brings rising commodity prices on everything, which boils down to less money in consumer's pockets, which drives 2/3 of the U.S economy, which drives the world economy -- or used to anyway.

The last oil crisis started with terrorism and today's oil crisis is no different, only worse this time, given all the other factors covered so far.

Record oil prices bullish for gold...

Historically, higher oil prices also bring with it higher gold and other commodity prices. The Aden Sisters have been following this trend for over three decades and their conclusion is that the present record high oil prices is very bullish for gold.

"The oil price keeps hitting new record highs. High oil prices reflect two things. The enormous appetite the world has for oil, especially with China adding to the demand side since it's now the second largest consumer of oil after the U.S. The second factor is the supply side. Any act that might disrupt or limit the oil supply causes the oil price to rise. That's what recently happened when Yukos, Russia's largest oil exporter, was ordered to halt production. Plus, oil disruptions in Iraq have added more fuel to the fire."

"It all boils down to uncertainty. As long as we have uncertainty in the supply or demand side, we'll continue to see higher oil prices. And since the oil price strongly affects inflation, this means inflation is headed higher too. This in turn will be good for gold since gold is the maximum inflation hedge." [AdenForecast]

CNBC Anchor and economist, Larry Kudlow reported to National Review magazine back in 2001, "Gold is a useful benchmark because its monetary purchasing power is relatively constant over long periods of time. Hence, over time, an ounce of gold should buy roughly the same number of barrels of oil. In the past decade, an ounce of gold bought seventeen barrels of oil."

Using Kudlow's formula, that means that $49 per barrel oil should bring $833 per ounce gold!

I remember back in 1979, when Iranian students seized the U.S. Embassy, taking 90 hostages and the Russians invaded Afghanistan. At home, Americans faced rising oil prices and a 13% inflation rate. The oil crisis caused a flight to quality assets, like U.S. gold coins, among investors and gold prices went through the roof. From Summer 1979 through early 1980, gold soared from $200 an ounce to $850 and silver rocketed from $4 to over $50 per ounce - a tenfold increase.

This buying frenzy that swept the oil and bullion markets then spread to all tangible assets. Prices for U.S. rare coins and stamps skyrocketed almost ten-fold from mid-1979 to mid-1980. During this same period, stocks were out of favor. In 1982, the cover of Business Week actually trumpeted "The Death of Equities."

21st century gold rush, 1980's style?...

In a classic inflationary scenario, too much money chased too few goods. The birth of "numismatic" coins as a legitimate category of investment can also be traced to this tumultuous period that started back in the early 1980s.

Although "numismatics" as a form of collecting art and studying history existed as far back as ancient Rome, it was not until 1979 that the financial community began to discover benefits of owning U.S. rare coins.

The price of the 10-piece set of common date U.S. gold coin set stood at $5,325 in of January 1979. But by January 1980 it reached $16,500 - a threefold increase. The coin market peaked in January 1981, with the same 10-piece set now valued over $35,000.

Such dramatic increases in the coin market had never before been seen - nor even dreamed of. Coin collectors who had patiently built collections during the 1960s and 1970s were rewarded with amazing profits - if they decided to sell. Many coins bought during the mid 1970's for $500 were sold during this period for $2,500-$3,000.

According to a 1998 study by Dr. Raymond Lombra, Associate Dean, Research and Graduate Studies at Pennsylvania State University in State College, Pa., "The two top-performing investments over the past 25 years were stocks, at 14.6% per year, and high-quality, rare U.S. gold coins, at 14.3% per year. A broader index of rare U.S. coins, including all types in grade Mint State-65 (on a scale of 1 to 70), performed at 18% per year over the same period."

* Will the coming oil/inflation crisis impact the tangible asset market the same in the 21st century?
* Will oil-targeted acts of terrorism continue to hold America in a Middle-East stranglehold?
* Will the uncertainty end soon, or continue to escalate?
Will another oil spike tip us into a recession (or worse) as some economists fear?

Either way, I strongly recommend diversifying at least a small portion of your assets into tangibles, as a hedge against the unknowable. That way you are covered no matter what happens with oil, terrorism, recession or inflation!

To help readers understand the growing economic threats to your assets:Two NEW FREE educational resources...

"A CITIZEN'S GUIDE TO COUNTER TERRORISM" A new educational DVD that covers how to prepare for five major types of terrorism that America now faces. Features Pat Boone who recommends; a family communications plan, basic steps of emergency planning and "financial terrorism" preparedness.

RESTORING THE STANDAND: A TRIBUTE TO REAGANOMICS” DISCOVER WHY... Islamic Terrorists are targeting Mid-East oil and U.S. dollar … Ronald Reagan fought to restore the gold standard … A Gold Standard will restore morality to our money.

Call our offices toll-free at 800-289-2646 between 8am to 6pm PT Monday-Friday to request these new resources.


ALL NEWS IS GOOD NEWS?! - Bill Bonner, Daily Reckoning
Aug. 23, 2004

People seem to think they get richer by selling their houses to each other...so do economists believe they get richer by setting fire to their houses so they can build them back up.

"Stimulus..." they say.

"Arson..." we reply.

When people reach the top of their optimistic delusions, everything that happens is cause for celebration. Back in the late '80s, for example, when Japan was riding high, even an earthquake in Tokyo was interpreted as good economic news. It would provide a "stimulus" for rebuilding, said analysts.

Now, it is Americans who are delusional. In yesterday's New York Times, even the soaring price of oil was reported as good news. An oil shock might provide much needed "economic stimulus," said the paper.

Stephen Roach notes that every previous oil shock was followed by recession. You don't have to be an economist to figure out why. When people spend more for energy they must spend less for something else. Overall, spending goes down.

But along come the "all news is good news" analysts, and all of a sudden higher oil prices - along with war, pestilence, drought and traffic accidents - are "stimulating."

The logic of it is that catastrophes need to be corrected. After a war, for example, people get back to work rebuilding houses, roads and train stations. But they do not do so with nothing. They only do so by diverting resources - people, machines, energy - from other activities. In other words, they have to give up something, actually lowering their real standards of living in order to free up the resources. After a calamity, people typically scrimp and save...and work like galley slaves...in order to get back on their feet. That's what a recession is, too...an interlude in which consumer spending goes down while people put things in order.

Oil is now heading towards $50 a barrel...and the U.S. economy is probably headed for recession. And, yes, it should be very stimulating...but not in the way most economists think. Higher oil prices should stimulate people to add insulation to their houses...or to buy a more energy-efficient automobile. If they had savings, this could give a boost to the economy. But since they have none...it is just another thing that must be financed by borrowing from foreign lenders...and another milestone along America's road to ruin.

http://www.dailyreckoning.com


GOP 2004 THEME: "Fulfilling America's Promise” –2004NYCGOP.org
“Building a Safer World and a More Hopeful America"
Aug. 20, 2004

NEW YORK - Ed Gillespie, Chairman of the Republican National Committee, and Mark Wallace, Bush-Cheney '04 Deputy Campaign Manager, today announced Senator Zell Miller (D-GA) will deliver the keynote address at the 2004 Republican National Convention on Wednesday, September 1. The 2004 Republican National Convention, the party's first-ever in New York City, will focus on President Bush's vision for "Fulfilling America's Promise by Building a Safer World and a More Hopeful America." The four-day event will pay tribute to the nation's courage, hope, and compassion and herald the opportunities available in this country.

On Monday, August 30, we will pay tribute to the courage of a nation that has seen unprecedented challenges over the last three and a half years and the president who led the nation through these historic times. Program speaker former Mayor Rudy Giuliani will speak to the courage of the American people, seen through the acts of bravery of a city that saw tragedy and great acts of heroism on September 11, 2001. John McCain will talk about the courage of our men and women in the military and the commander in chief who has led with clarity and conviction in the War on Terror.

On Tuesday, August 31, the Republican National Convention will focus on the compassion of the American people and the uniquely American belief that our best days lie ahead. President Bush's optimistic stewardship of the nation will be the focus when Mrs. Bush addresses the nation with personal insights into the president's three and half years in office. Governor Arnold Schwarzenegger will tell his personal story of living the American Dream and spreading the party's message of compassion and hope.

On Wednesday, September 1, Sen. Zell Miller (D-GA), will deliver the convention's keynote address. Sen. Miller will speak about the land of opportunity created by President Bush's pro-growth, pro-American worker, pro-American entrepreneur agenda. In 1992, Sen. Miller was selected by President Bill Clinton to deliver the keynote address at the Democrat National Convention. A dozen years later, Sen. Miller will deliver the keynote address for President George W. Bush, who he describes as the "right man" to lead our nation in these times. Vice President Cheney will be the featured speaker on Wednesday. He will speak to the administration's record of creating opportunity for all Americans an d the president's vision for spreading freedom around the world to ensure our safety at home.

On Thursday, September 2, President George W. Bush will lay out his vision for the next four years - a vision that will help build a safer world and a more hopeful America. President Bush will build on his record of accomplishment with new and innovative ideas to spread opportunity and prosperity to all corners of our country. Drawing inspiration from the courage and compassion of all Americans, the president will talk about his plan for building a safer world by spreading freedom around the globe.

FULL STORY

Related stories:
AMERICA'S PROMISE ALLIANCE FOR YOUTH
8/24/04 – Wash Post - Kerry's Dueling Promises on Economy -- Position on Reducing Deficit Conflicts With Campaign Commitments


BUCHANAN BOOK DECLARES: 'NO CONSERVATIVE PARTY LEFT IN WASHINGTON' -DrudgeReport
Aug. 23, 2004

After warning about the "Death of the West," bestselling author and former presidential candidate Pat Buchanan now declares: "There is no conservative party left in Washington."

Buchanan is set to launch his new work WHERE THE RIGHT WENT WRONG: How Neoconservatives Subverted The Reagan Revolution And Hijacked the Bush Presidency -- a work ripe with cutting observation and opinion.

RIGHT WENT WRONG is not set for release until September 1, but DRUDGE breaks the embargo on the book:

On Conservatives and Conservatism:

"There is no conservative party left in Washington. Conservative thinkers and writers who were to be the watchdogs of orthodoxy have been as vigilant in policing party deviations from principle as was Cardinal Law in collaring the predator-priests of the Boston archdiocese." (Page 9)

"The Beltway Right has entered into a civil union with Big Brother." (Page 176)

"Under the rubric of conservatism, the Republican party of Bush I and II has been reinventing itself into what conservatives would have once recognized as a Rockefeller party reciting Reaganite rhetoric." (234)

"[A] civil war is going to break out inside the Republican Party along the old trench lines of the Goldwater-Rockefeller wars of the 1960s, a war for the heart and soul and future of the party for the new century." (234) On the Neoconservatives:

"[T]he boat people of the McGovern revolution." (37)

"Kristol's warning that neoconservatives could go to Kerry was an admission of what many have long recognized. The neoconservatives are not really conservatives at all. They are impostors and opportunists." (250)

"Nine days after an attack on the United States, this tiny clique of intellectuals was telling the President of the United States...that if he did not follow their war plans, he would be charged publicly with a 'decisive surrender' to terrorism." (48)

On the Bush Doctrine:

"[A] prescription for permanent war for permanent peace, though wars are the death of republics." (6)

The Bush National Security Strategy "is the imperial edict of a superpower out to exploit its present supremacy to make itself permanent Lord Protector of the universe." (26)

"This is democratic imperialism. This will bleed, bankrupt and isolate this republic. This overthrows the wisdom of the Founding Fathers about what America should be all about." (35)

On the War in Iraq:

"[L]istening to the neoconservatives, Bush invaded Iraq, united the Arab world against us, isolated us from Europe, and fulfilled to the letter bin Laden's prophecy as to what we were about. We won the war in three weeks -- and we may have lost the Islamic world for a generation. (84)

"[I]f Iraq collapses in chaos and civil war, there will be a ferocious fight in this country over who misled us and who may have lied us, into war....into the dock will go the neoconservatives whose class project this was..." (236)

On the War on Terrorism:

"Terrorism is the price of empire. If we do not wish to pay it, we must give up the empire." (237)

"America's enemy in the Islamic world is not a state we can crush with sanctions or an enemy we can defeat with force of arms. The enemy is a cause, a movement, an idea." (87)

"[T]errorism is not a nation, a regime, or an army. Terrorism is a tactic, a technique, a weapon fanatics, dictators and warriors have resorted to through history. If...war is the continuation of politics by other means, terrorism is the continuation of war by other means." (89)

"We are not hated for who we are. We are hated for what we do. It is not our principles that have spawned pandemic hatred of America in the Islamic world. It is our policies." (80)

"U.S. dominance of the Middle East is not the corrective to terror. It is a cause of terror. Were we not over there, the 9/11 terrorists would not have been over here." (236)

"Often, terrorism succeeded in the 20th century, and, when it did, the ex-terrorists achieved power, glory and immortality, with streets, towns and cities named for them....America today recognizes every regime to come out of these wars where terrorism was a common tactic." (123)

On Israel & the Middle East:

"The Sharon Plan is not a peace plan. It is a unilateral solution to be imposed by Israel....A Palestinian leader who signs on to this surrender of land and rights would be signing his death warrant." (242)

FULL STORY


ABOUT THE EDITOR

David M. Bradshaw is Editor of Real Money Perspectives, publisher of Rediscovering Gold in the 21st Century: The Complete Guide to the Next Gold Rush (7/01) and has been an economic commentator since 1987, when he produced the World Economic Perspectives radio show. In 1997, he produced a one-hour TV documentary, "Preparing Wisely for the Next Millennium," which was distributed free of charge at Blockbuster Video nationally. In 1999, he produced a one-hour radio special, "The Big Picture: The Shape of Things to Come" discussing geopolitical, economic and spiritual trends in the 21st Century. MORE ... NOTE: Youngest daughter Braida Zoe (6 months) is learning the importance of having a crash helmet -- a valuable habit for us all to remember... just in case!


DISCLAIMER: All of the information in this story is believed to be true, however errors are possible.
Past performance is no guarantee of future performance. All investments have risk.

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