Gold and Silver are both seeing a jump Wednesday on the commodity rally. Many believe that this will be a period of stability and there will not be may price changes for a while. Many also feel that the rally is a delayed reaction to higher than expected inflation levels reported in the UK.
By Alix Steel
05/18/11 - 11:22 AM EDT
THE STREET
NEW YORK (TheStreet ) -- Gold and silver were popping Wednesday on a broad commodity rally.
Gold for June delivery was adding $16.30 to $1,496.30 at the Comex division of the New York Mercantile Exchange. The gold price Wednesday has traded as high as $1,499.60 and as low as $1,484.60. The spot gold price was adding $11, according to Kitco's gold index.
Silver prices were rallying $1.62 to $35.12 an ounce. The U.S. dollar index was flat at $75.40.
Some view the rally in the metals as a delayed reaction to Tuesday's higher-than-expected inflation reading out of the U.K., which came in hot at 4.5%. "Hopefully this is a bit of stability in the market," says Will Rhind, head of U.S. operations for ETF Securities." Rhind also thinks that the gold market has priced in the eventual end of the Federal Reserve's $600 billion bond buying program and that speculators are out of the market. "We haven't seen any redemptions in our ETFS Physical Gold(SGOL) or in our ETFS Physical Silver(SIVR) or in any of our other metal products in the last week and that tells me that things have calmed down a little bit," argues Rhind. While investors may enjoy a period of stability, there are several potentially disruptive issues waiting in the wings, such as a possible Greece restructuring, a possible U.S. default come August 2nd if Congress doesn't raise the debt ceiling and worries over central banks tightening their monetary policies.
The fact that gold held the $1,470 level Tuesday could have also brought some investors back into the market who worried of a further correction to $1,425 an ounce. But look for some traders to take advantage of higher prices today to book profits. "We have been selling into rallies," says Mihir Dange, trader at Arbitrage.
Dange warns of shorting silver, which had been popular with some day traders before May's deep selloff, "If we see a rally through $35, $36 I would probably initiate some longs."
Mark Arbeter, chief technical strategist at Standard & Poor's, who sees a possible 15%-20% decline in the S&P, said in a recent note that gold could sink to $1,250 to $1,300 an ounce before the metal finds strong physical buying. The spot gold price wasn't as strong as the futures price Wednesday, which can indicate more trading rather than investing. Arbeter thinks silver could fall to the $20 ounce level despite finding some solid support in the $30 area.
Options expiration for gold and silver is also next Wednesday where options become June futures if in the money, according to George Gero, senior vice president at RBC Capital Markets, so traders will be reshuffling some positions ahead of that date.
Gold mining stocks were slightly higher. Barrick Gold(ABX) was up 0.8% at $45.61 while Newmont Mining(NEM) was adding 0.8% to $54. Other gold stocks, Agnico-Eagle(AEM) and Eldorado Gold(EGO) were trading at $62.90 and $15.62, respectively.
--Written by Alix Steel in New York.
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