In Numbers We Trust? - May 20th news...

"Inflation is like sin; every government denounces it and every government practices it."

-Frederick Leith-Ross, The Observer
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MARKET NEWS DIGEST

Treasury Dept. Warns China on Currency -AP
By JEANNINE AVERSA, AP Economics Writer
May 17, 2005

WASHINGTON - The Bush administration, in its hardest stance yet, warned China on Tuesday that it likely will be accused of manipulating its currency to gain an unfair trade advantage over the United States — unless Beijing acts swiftly to overhaul its currency system.

The administration has been prodding China in earnest over the last two years to stop linking its currency, the yuan, to the U.S. dollar. Manufacturers and other critics, including Democratic and Republican lawmakers in Congress, contend that China's currency system puts U.S. companies at a big competitive disadvantage and has contributed to the loss of U.S. factory jobs.

The Treasury Department issued the warning as part of its twice-a-year report to Congress. However, it stopped short of finding that China — or any other major trading partner of the United States — was engaging in unfair currency practices.

But the administration clearly stepped up the pressure on China, saying it could be branded a manipulator of currency if the country doesn't switch soon to a flexible exchange system — something advocated not only by the United States but also by other economic powers.

A 1988 law requires the department to analyze countries' exchange rate policies and determine whether manipulation to gain unfair trade advantages is occurring. The law has economic sanctions that can be imposed on countries found in violation.

"If current trends continue without substantial alteration, China's policies will likely meet the statute's technical requirements for designation" of currency manipulation, the Treasury Department's report said.

FULL STORY

Stocks decline on inflation concerns -BW

MAY. 17 10:16 A.M. ET Stocks fell in early trading Tuesday after the government's report of higher-than-expected wholesale price increases renewed Wall Street's inflation fears. The report overshadowed strong earnings from the retail sector.

Investors had hoped the Labor Department's Producer Price Index for May would show stability, but the index rose 0.6 percent, more than the 0.4 percent economists expected. With volatile energy and food costs removed, so-called core PPI rose 0.3 percent, compared with the 0.2 percent expected on Wall Street.

While oil prices continued their trend lower Tuesday, the fact that core PPI rose more than expected led investors to the conclusion that the effect of higher raw materials and other pricing pressures were taking hold. The big fear is that those prices would be passed along to consumers, which would either choke off economic growth or spur inflation.

In midmorning trading, the Dow Jones industrial average fell 9.53, or 0.1 percent, to 10,242.76.

Broader stock indicators also moved lower. The Standard & Poor's 500 index was down 1.63, or 0.1 percent, at 1,164.06, and the Nasdaq composite index dropped 4.13, or 0.2 percent, to 1,990.30.

The bond market edged higher as stocks fell, with the yield on the 10-year Treasury note falling to 4.12 percent from 4.13 percent late Monday. The dollar lost ground against other major currencies after strong gains in the past few sessions, and gold prices rose.

Crude oil futures posted more losses, though some investors felt that the $50-plus per barrel prices experienced in much of 2005 may have already had an adverse effect on the economy. A barrel of light crude was quoted at $48.10, down 51 cents, on the New York Mercantile Exchange.

Those investors still feeling bullish were buoyed by the latest Commerce Department report on housing starts, which rose 11 percent in April. Economists had been predicting slower growth in home construction, but it appeared that the Federal Reserve's steady pace of interest rate hikes has not muted the booming housing market.

http://www.businessweek.com

U.S. capital inflows slow in March -MW
Foreign central banks net sellers first time in 19 months
By Rex Nutting, MarketWatch
May 16, 2005

WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) - Foreign central banks became net sellers of U.S. assets for the first time in 19 months in March, helping to slow foreign capital inflows into the United States by 46%, the Treasury Department said Monday.

Net capital inflows fell to $45.7 billion in March from $84.1 billion in February.

It was the lowest level of capital inflows since October 2003.

It was the first time since October 2004 that foreign inflows have fallen short of the U.S. trade deficit for the month. The trade gap was $55 billion in March.

The report had little impact on the dollar, which touched a seven-month high against the euro overnight before softening ahead of the U.S. data. In a separate report, the New York Federal Reserve Bank said the Empire state manufacturing index fell into negative territory for the first time in two years.

http://www.marketwatch.com

Related Story:
The Kindness of Strangers - Bill Bonner, 11/02...The U.S. economy earns less than it spends. The difference is made up thanks to the kindness of strangers in foreign countries. If those foreigners ever begin to feel that the dollar is not what it is supposed to be, they will dump greenbacks in favor of other colors, say, the blue and pink of euro notes.

Pension funding problems grow -USAT
By Sue Kirchhoff, Stephanie Armour and Chris Woodyard, USA TODAY
May 16, 2005

WASHINGTON — The United pension default — the largest in U.S. history — comes atop a string of bankruptcies and retirement plan meltdowns in the steel, retail and other industries in the past several years that have directly affected the retirement security of millions of Americans and prompted millions more to worry whether they're next.

Thanks to the Pension Benefit Guaranty Corp., the little-known federal agency that insures private pensions, millions of workers receive monthly pension checks — even though their employer is bankrupt or has terminated their pension plan.

But due to complicated rules and limitations on funding, some retirees receive less than they had counted on. Further, the PBGC insures defined-benefit plans, which provide a set monthly benefit at retirement. The agency does not cover other retirement plans such as profit-sharing or 401(k) plans.

After taking over a plan, the PBGC continues monthly payments as usual. But the agency has a ceiling on benefits, which is adjusted annually. For pension plans that end in 2005, the maximum payment for workers who retire at age 65 is $3,801 a month, or $45,613.68 per year. The maximum amount is lower if a person begins receiving payments before 65 or has a pension including survivor or other beneficiary benefits.

At the same time, the amount might be higher for a person who retires after 65 or is over 65 and collecting benefits.

Other rules apply to disabled people or in cases in which a company amended or altered a plan within five years of ending it.

The latest high-profile case illustrates what Bradley Belt, executive director of the federal Pension Benefit Guaranty Corp., which insures traditional pension plans, calls severe stress in the U.S. pension system. And it puts increased pressure on the White House and Congress to act before the situation becomes worse.

The PBGC, funded through corporate premiums, has moved from about a $10 billion surplus in the late 1990s to a $23 billion deficit in its single-employer insurance program. The agency had $39 billion in assets and $62 billion in long-term liabilities. At the same time, the PBGC estimates underfunding in the pension system has reached a record $450 billion, with auto, airline and retail industries at most risk.

"We have sufficient liquidity to pay benefits at the pace we're paying them now for several years, but we clearly do not have the ability over the long run to honor all the obligations we've taken on," Belt says.

The situation can be resolved three ways, he says: more money from corporate premiums; an eventual taxpayer bailout; or reduced pension benefits.

Bankruptcies and underfunding aren't the only issues.

FULL STORY

Related Stories:
5-17-05 -- Nation's pension system faces immediate crisis, changes - CNN
Pension-Collapse Lessons - WSJ - By ALEKSANDRA TODOROVA May 15, 2005... Whether or not you have a pension plan at work, consider United as a wake-up call. Assume you alone are responsible for your retirement.

Wall Street weighs stagflation threat -AP
May 14, 2005
By Rachel Beck, The Associated Press

NEW YORK -- A trend from the 1970s may be making an unwelcome return, and it has nothing to do with disco music, bad hair styles or bell-bottom pants.

Fears are growing on Wall Street about the possible return of stagflation, which often arises when tepid economic growth mixes with rising inflation. That toxic combination can cripple the economy, and while such a grim predicament has yet to emerge, there certainly are hints that stagflation could be brewing.

At the start of the year, the economy seemed to be in a good spot. The Federal Reserve, by raising interest rates multiple times, had managed to slow economic growth just enough to keep inflation in check. Some economists were even touting the rebirth of what is known as the "Goldilocks" economy -- not too hot, not too cold, just right.

Those days now seem long ago. Worries over inflation and slow growth have become the buzz of economic circles and have rattled the stock market in recent weeks.

Stagflation in the 1970s grew out of the OPEC oil embargo that caused oil prices to quadruple. Inflation surged and economic growth was stunted.

This time around, a similar picture seems to be emerging. Oil prices soared above $58 a barrel in early April. And while prices have since retreated and now hover just above $50 a barrel, that is still well above the $40 a barrel hit a year ago.

FULL STORY

Related Story:
Stagflation is back -- and that's good for gold -MSN

Newsweek says Koran desecration report is wrong
May 15, 2005
By David Morgan

WASHINGTON (Reuters) - Newsweek magazine said on Sunday it erred in a May 9 report that U.S. interrogators desecrated the Koran at Guantanamo Bay, and apologized to the victims of deadly Muslim protests sparked by the article.

Editor Mark Whitaker said the magazine inaccurately reported that U.S. military investigators had confirmed that personnel at the detention facility in Cuba had flushed the Muslim holy book down the toilet.

The report sparked angry and violent protests across the Muslim world from Afghanistan, where 16 were killed and more than 100 injured, to Pakistan to Indonesia to Gaza. In the past week it was condemned in Egypt, Saudi Arabia, Bangladesh, Malaysia and by the Arab League.

On Sunday, Afghan Muslim clerics threatened to call for a holy war against the United States.

"We regret that we got any part of our story wrong, and extend our sympathies to victims of the violence and to the U.S. soldiers caught in its midst," Whitaker wrote in the magazine's latest issue, due to appear on U.S. newsstands on Monday.

The weekly news magazine said in its May 23 edition that the information had come from a "knowledgeable government source" who told Newsweek that a military report on abuse at Guantanamo Bay said interrogators flushed at least one copy of the Koran down a toilet in a bid to make detainees talk.

FULL STORY

COMMENTARY

In whose numbers do you trust? -Craig R. Smith
May 16, 2005
WorldNetDaily.com

"Number's don't lie, people lie!"

Modern culture is based upon our trust in numbers. They are commonly accepted as the means to achieving objectivity in analysis, certainty in conclusions, and truth. Numbers tell us about the health of our society and they provide a demarcation between what is accepted as safe and what is believed to be dangerous.

But in reality, numbers are nowhere near as objective as we often take them to be. They do not exist in the air, but instead always come from someone's computations. Someone put them there and they often hide his or her intentions or assumptions.

It is easy to use numbers to lie, but it's very hard to discover that lie because our culture tells us that numbers are objective and true. For the same reasons, it is easy to see that a whole economic system may also be reported falsely when using only government numbers to describe it.

For example, last week CNBC "Squakbox" discussed the Consumer Price Index, the top U.S. inflation indicator. After reviewing all the facts, CNBC concluded that the CPI is rigged, and not representative of the true rising cost of living that is widely reported.

CNBC discovered that government statisticians arbitrarily evaluate an item, like a computer, by comparing the cost of the same computer last year, but since this year's model has more features, they calculate that the net price has dropped by 29 percent. No joke!

A deceptively low "official" CPI number hurts everyone, but especially those who rely on SSI and fixed retirement incomes. Cost-of-living income adjustments based off the CPI are not able to keep pace with higher "real world" prices. Even Fed Chairman Alan Greenspan has said that official CPI numbers have no basis in reality.

It's nonsense to say that we live in a world of 2 to 3 percent inflation today, because the government has systematically stripped out of their CPI virtually all of the "real world" indicators, such as rising home costs.

Stamp Price Index reveals "real world" inflation

FULL STORY ... WND Archives

Inflation debate brews over intangibles -Timothy Aeppel, WSJ
May 9, 2005
The Wall Street Journal

WASHINGTON -- To most people, when the price of a 27-inch television set remains $329.99 from one month to the next, the price hasn't changed.

But not to Tim LaFleur. He's a commodity specialist for televisions at the Bureau of Labor Statistics, the government agency that assembles the Consumer Price Index. In this case, which landed on his desk last December, he decided the newer set had important improvements, including a better screen. After running the changes through a complex government computer model, he determined that the improvement in the screen was valued at more than $135. Factoring that in, he concluded the price of the TV had actually fallen 29 percent.

Mr. LaFleur was applying the principles of hedonics, an arcane statistical technique that's become a flashpoint in a debate over how the U.S. government measures inflation. Hedonics is essentially a way of accounting for the changing quality of products when calculating price movements. That's vital in the dynamic U.S. economy, marked by rapid technological advances. Without hedonics, the effect of consumers getting more for their money wouldn't get fully reflected in inflation numbers.

But even as the Federal Reserve raises interest rates amid a recent uptick in inflation, many critics complain the hedonic method is distorting the picture of what's going on in the economy. They say hedonics is too subjective and fear it helps keep inflation figures artificially low -- meaning the Fed may already be lagging in its inflation-fighting mission.

It's critically important for consumers, business, the government and the economy as a whole that the CPI is as accurate as possible. The CPI is used to benchmark how much is paid to Social Security recipients, who last year received outlays of $487 billion. It also plays a role in adjusting lease payments, wages in union contracts, food-stamp benefits, alimony and tax brackets.

Getting the CPI right is immensely complex and can seem counterintuitive. Consumers sometimes have the impression that the government must be missing something -- since inflation has remained remarkably low in recent years, even as housing prices, medical bills and other daily costs have soared. Hedonics helps explain part of the difference. There are also differences in the mix of things people buy. For instance, healthy people spend far less on health care, an area that has seen particularly strong inflation. And not everyone pays college tuition, another area where prices have been marching rapidly higher.

The issue is likely to gain more attention now as signs of inflationary pressures grow. Consumer prices jumped 0.6 percent last month, the biggest increase in five months, as the prices of energy, clothing and airline fares all rose sharply. On an annual basis, consumer prices rose at a 4.3 percent rate in the first three months of this year, compared with 3.3 percent for all of last year.

Bill Gross, head of the world's largest bond fund, Pimco, caused a stir last fall by proclaiming that the way the CPI is calculated amounts to a "con job" by the government aimed at concealing the true rate of inflation. A key culprit, he said, was the CPI's growing reliance on hedonics. Mr. Gross, who has other complaints about how inflation is tracked, estimates the CPI really is one percentage point higher than official figures suggest.

That's important for bond investors, who view inflation as their biggest enemy. Bond holders receive a fixed interest payment on their bonds that is eaten away by inflation. If there is hidden inflation in the economy, bonds are less valuable.

Likewise, Andrew Harless, vice president of econometric analysis at Atlantic Asset Management in Stamford, Conn., takes issue with hedonics. "Price decline and quality improvement are not the same thing," he says. As a result, any index that treats it as such is likely to be misleading.

FULL STORY

TO INFINITY - AND BEYOND! -The Mogambo Guru
May 16, 2005
Daily Reckoning

Antal Fekete, in his "Goldbug Variations V" essay on the Freemarketnews.com, talks about the decision by Nixon in 1971 to take the dollar off the gold standard, essentially defaulting in the worth of the U.S. dollar. "We must remember that the financial annals do not record a single case in which a default has not been followed by a progressive increase in the discount on the paper of the defaulting banker, until it reached 100 percent - possibly several years or even decades later."

Mogambo Instant Translation (MIT): the purchasing power of the currency went to squat, which makes everything cost more. "Obviously, the defaulting banker would try to slow down the process by hook or crook. However, ultimately economic law was to prevail and the remaining value of the dishonored paper would be wiped out."

If the dollar falls in value, then the "dollar price of gold will approach infinity"? Wow!

For those of you who want me to give you tips on what the "small investor" should do, here is a tip: Buy an asset whose value, in dollars, will go to infinity. If you are not familiar with the subtleties of an infinite amount of dollars, it is more than a jillion dollars, it is more than a gazillion dollars, it is more than a trillion, zillion, bazillion flabgobble splendillion dollars and, as such, represents one hell of a large chunk of money, and I cannot imagine the size of a wallet needed to carry that much money, so don't get me started thinking about it.

And the good thing is that it is also worth a lot of money all over the world! Perfect safety! Huge gains! All at $435 per ounce! What more could you ask for in an investment? And at the same price as the large investor would pay, too!

And while Mr. Ankete does not come right out and say it, I am sure that he is thinking it, and instead of trying to coax it out of him, or wheedle it out of him, or demanding that he tell me, or threatening to beat it out of him and if he knows what it good for him he had better start talking, I will tell you myself. Buy gold and/or silver.

Besides the bad news that we are doomed, and how we are all going to die a horrible, painful economic death, he also notes, "A reliable measure of destruction is the so-called 'notional' size of the derivatives market trading interest-rate futures, options, and swaps. It now stands at a quarter of a quadrillion dollars and is increasing at an accelerating pace." Now this, in American terms, is $250 trillion, which is about nine times the value of global GDP, which means it is ten times as big as all the goods and services produced by everybody and every company on the face of the earth.

This is not news to John Mackenzie, who wrote the essay entitled "M2- Debt and the Delusionals," as he has been looking at the most current Settlements Data on Derivatives, assembled by the Bank of International (BIS).

He notes that the BIS figures that Exchange Traded Derivatives now total $279 trillion, and OTC derivatives now total $220 trillion, which add up to, and I am going to take his word for this, as I cannot reliably add $279 plus $220, almost $500 trillion, which is almost HALF a quadrillion!

The good news, if there is any, is that the banks also figure that not all of that $499 Trillion in combined derivatives is at risk. Whew! The banks decided that only somewhere between $25 trillion and $35 trillion of that total amount of derivatives are, as they say, "at risk." Hey! Now I feel a LOT better! The amount "at risk" is only the total value of all the freaking goods and services produced in the whole freaking world in an entire freaking year! I feel MUCH better now!

http://www.dailyreckoning.com

Bubble, bubble, housing market's in trouble, author warns
By Lyn Millner, USA TODAY
May 15, 2005

In March 2000, when our stocks and our sensibilities were tripping through the stratosphere, Yale economist Robert J. Shiller tried to yank us down to Earth. His first edition of Irrational Exuberance pointed to a bubble in the stock market.

Some of us covered our ears with our hands and sang "la-la-la-la-la." Others pooh-poohed him outright. Then the market headed south. And it didn't rebound.

Irrational Exuberance, Second Edition, by Robert J. Shiller; Princeton University Press, 304 pages, $28.

And Shiller went from being Chicken Little to Paul Revere.

His book was a best seller.

Now, Shiller has seen fit to update Irrational Exuberance. In this new edition, he warns that there's a bubble in home values. We haven't lost the irrational exuberance Greenspan chided us for in 1996, he writes. We've redirected much of it to real estate.

Did someone say "real estate"? Oh, can we please talk about real estate? Because we are obsessed with it. Home values are skyrocketing, people are profiting mightily and all of us are yammering with everyone (friends, neighbors, strangers, kindergartners), everywhere (cocktail parties, elevators, gyms, Jiffy Lube waiting rooms). Just as stocks were in the '90s, real estate is the public conversation. We are ravenous for more information.

And we are irrational. That's what causes bubbles, Shiller points out. Our irrationality is fed and amplified by optimistic forecasts from analysts, by the media, by the perceived effects of the baby boom and the rise of an ownership society. We rationalize the boom with new-era thinking and the theory of efficient markets.

Shiller covered all of this in the first edition. In fact, the lion's share (bear's share?) of this edition is lifted straight from the first. There's the added chapter on real estate, and some updated examples from the stock market.

Why a whole new edition? Why didn't Shiller pen some magazine articles instead, discussing the dangers of real estate speculation? Because we're listening — perhaps even more than we did in 2000 — and he knows it. And this edition feeds our howling appetite for all things real estate.

So. On to the juicy chapter, which opens with a chart of U.S. home prices from 1890 to present. Beginning in 1998, the line shoots skyward. Cue the dirge music.

When it comes to real estate, Shiller writes, we cling to the myth that home prices always rise. It's not true. Shiller shows that, since 1890, real home prices have been flat or declining.

The only dramatic increases are confined to two brief periods — right after World War II and the current one. The World War II boom was caused by actual demand and a corresponding shortage of housing to fill that demand. Today's boom is driven by speculation.

Before you cover your ears and start singing, consider Shiller's cogent arguments. Could the run-up in home values be the result of rising construction costs? Nope. Charts show that these two increases are vastly disproportionate.

What about the population surge that has created a land shortage? Shiller's charts show that population growth in the USA has been steady. And, he adds, "We didn't just run out of land since the late 1990s."

Speculation is what is driving prices upward. And it's "more entrenched on a national or international scale now than ever before."

FULL STORY

Let Them Eat Indexes! -Gary North
May 11, 2005
LewRockwell.com

History buffs will recognize the roots of this phrase. Marie Antoinette, wife of King Louis XVI, is supposed to have said "Let them eat cake" when informed in 1789 that the Parisian masses had run out of bread. There is no reliable evidence that the ill-fated queen ever said this, but it has made good propaganda since 1789. The sign of the insensitivity of the successful to the suffering masses is some version of "Let them eat cake."

In our day, the public no longer worries about bread, except as a source of unwanted carbohydrates. The free market had made us all so rich that our concern is with too much bread and too much cake. Twinkies celebrated its 75th birthday recently - cost-conscious Americans' favorite substitute for cake. Our waistlines reveal that ours is a world very different from Marie Antoinette's. But every society has its worries. Our worries center around official statistics. This includes stock market indexes. Newspapers run reports on how the Dow Jones did yesterday. Websites monitor this statistic constantly. TV anchormen do not let a broadcast get by without a reference to the Dow, usually with a line chart behind them. Up 6 points, down 9 points; it doesn't matter how minuscule the change is from the day before. It will make it onto prime-time news.

The Dow is regarded as monitoring the pulse of the American economy. It is seen as the mark of America's success or failure. "As goes the Dow, so goes America." Individually, we would not admit in private that we believe this, but the evening news indicates that millions of us do. We say we don't believe in astrology, either, but what newspaper would dare to drop its astrology column? Yes, yes: that's for all those other people. Well, I hope so, but the reality is this: all those other people are eligible to vote. Upset them, and the incumbent political party is in trouble. "It's the economy, stupid," 1992's formula for national electoral success, still resonates with the voters.

POLITICAL NUMBERS

Official indexes tend to calm down the electorate. They are designed to calm down voters. This is why governments have the statisticians jiggle and juggle the official statistics. For example, we feel better when the Bureau of Labor Statistics announces that job growth increased in the previous month. On May 6, the BLS announced that job growth was up 274,000 jobs in April.

Sometimes, this sort of statistical optimism leads to verbal speculation that the economy is stronger, so inflation will rise, so the Federal Reserve will raise interest rates, which will strengthen the dollar, which will make exports more difficult, which will slow the economy. The Dow drops. Or doesn't.

How does the BLS know that there were 274,000 new jobs? Not by counting them. It has a statistical formula which includes the likely creation of new businesses and the likely demise of old businesses. This is called the birth-death ratio. Let me assure you, the journalists who report the employment figures do not report the following. That's because hardly anyone knows about it, and of those who do, hardly anyone understands it, and of those who do understand it, hardly anyone knows what the BLS formula is or how the samples are made. The Bureau of Labor Statistics does publish a page about the birth-death ratio.

FULL STORY

A look at the world's oldest government -Dennis Peacocke
May 4, 2005
BusinessReform.com

The recent passing into eternity of Pope John Paul II has elicited a globally positive obituary almost unprecedented for a Catholic Pontiff, or any other religious leader for that matter. Even Fidel Castro and the Taliban sent positive notes of regrets to the Vatican in Rome. Republicans and Democrats, unbelievers and believers, Protestants and religious leaders of every global persuasion joined together in acknowledging the positive life example set by this man.

As has been noted by many social analysts, this Pope and Ronald Reagan were arguably the most important players, from a human point of view, in bringing down communism in the West and eliminating the "Cold War." The Pope also stood as a religious traditionalist in most areas as many Christian denominations succumbed to modernism and rejected the historic stands of Christendom in terms of homosexuality and other aspects of human moral conduct and church government. These issues and others have been noted as people reflect on Pope John Paul's global missions for peace and the values of human dignity. Truly, he was an extraordinary man.

What strikes me, however, is the historical reality of the longevity of the government over which this Pope presided. The Roman Catholic Church is the oldest major government on this planet. From its formative stages in the early third century, it has governed over its international flock as it slowly grew to over a billion people, while history marched by, and one government or movement after another came and went. The Roman Catholic government saw the Roman Emperors come and go. It survived when Rome itself became a kind of "ghost town." It was there for the nearly four hundred years of political vacuum until the Pope helped crown Charlemagne in 800 AD. It was there as dynasties rose and fell in ancient China. It was there when the "flat world" became round. It was there when the "New World" of the Americas was discovered. Its government stood above and beyond the rising and falling of every nation's kings and rulers.

It preceded Islam, the Orthodox Church, every Protestant denomination, every modern cult, communism, capitalism, existentialism and virtually every other "ism," and even Elvis and the Beatles. While mankind was discovering how to harness electricity, steam, and every other modern invention, her Popes presided over the spiritual government of most of the Western world. Few governments ever dared ignore her. The ones that did are now gone, and she remains. Some hate this government, and many today are indifferent towards it, but it alone has transcended the human history of the last two thousand years and remains. Only God knows how long it will endure, but I would expect that in some form it will be there on the day the world as we know it ends.

One doesn't have to agree with the government of Roman Catholicism or what it stands for to acknowledge the power and longevity of this truly amazing institution. Neither is there any question that Pope John Paul II advanced its credibility and revitalized its spiritual energy in spite of the doctrinal divisions which exist within it. In a world of "bar room brawl theology," where the last man standing wins, the Roman church is obviously a major contender.

Visit Dennis Peacocke at Gostrategic.org

Welcome to the 21st century paradigm shift
-- from a "stock-driven era" to a new "commodity-driven era."
In "Economic Solutions for the 21st Century" you'll discover ...
* SOCIAL SECURITY REFORM ... A plan to unify America
* WHY YOU MUST OWN assets that offset a DECLINING DOLLAR
* WSJ SAYS: "You don't have to be rich to invest in COINS."
* WHY SILVER could rise to $50, $75 or even $100 per ounce.
* "ATOMIC IRAN" spells the beginning of a new U.S. "Dirty War"

David M. Bradshaw is Editor of REAL MONEY PERSPECTIVES, a new, syndicated daily financial/cultural news digest. In 2001, he published REDISCOVERING GOLD IN THE 21ST CENTURY: The Complete Guide to the Next Gold Rush and has been an economic commentator since 1987, when he produced the World Economic Perspectives radio show. In 2004, he produced "A CITIZEN'S GUIDE TO COUNTER-TERRORISM" a free-to-the-public educational resource on DVD and CD. In 2005, he released a new CD, "WHAT'S YOUR WORLDVIEW?" a one-hour CD sample from his 24-hour series, "THE BIG PICTURE: The Shape of Things to Come" discussing geopolitical, economic and spiritual trends in the 21st Century. MORE ... PERSONAL NOTE: Youngest daughter Braida Zoe (age 15 mo.) is now feeding herself, running, says "hi" and "bye-bye," her name, "mama" & "dada." Shown with her mom (and loving wife) Micki among some bright Spring flowers!