Many global investors predict that commodities such as gold and oil will continue their climb and rally in the second half of the year as it has done in the first half.
SINGAPORE | Tue Apr 5, 2011 9:13am EDT
(Reuters) - Oil is a good short-term bet for another five months due to upcoming peak U.S. summer driving season, while prices in the long-term are likely to double along with gold in five years, said a leading fund manager.
Crude oil prices, which surged to a 2- year high above $121 for Brent on Monday, will continue to climb until at least September when the Atlantic hurricane season typically begins, said Frank Holmes, chief executive and chief investment officer of U.S. Global Investors.
U.S. Global Investors is an investment management firm specializing in commodities, emerging markets and infrastructure with around $3 billion in assets.
"You get these trends that can last many months. Right now, we are in a rising trend for oil," Holmes told Reuters on the sidelines of a commodities conference.
"As car season picks up and people are driving more in the U.S., then you see oil prices rise until September, which is the start of the hurricane season. I think between now and then oil will probably be a strong commodity."
He declined to speculate on whether prices in 2011 would top U.S. crude's unprecedented high of $147.27 reached in July 2008, but did say oil would hit new heights in the coming years.
He believes that economic growth in emerging markets, especially China and India, will boost the countries' middle class and translate into purchases of cars and homes which will drive oil and commodities demand.
"In the next five years, oil can double and I think gold can double because 50 percent of the world's population is growing their money supply by more than 15 percent a year," Holmes said.
"That doesn't mean you are not going to get big corrections, but the odds favor it unless there is a complete slowdown in the world."
He expected gold, which hit a record of $1,447.40 an ounce last month, to rally in the second half of the year.
"Gold bottoms in the summer and has a big run going on from August to February," Holmes said.
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