THE ERA ENDING - Apr 8th...

"It is the duty of every man to render to the Creator such homage, and such only, as he believes to be acceptable to him. This duty is precedent both in order of time and degree of obligation, to the claims of Civil Society. Before any man can be considered as a member of Civil Society, he must be considered as a subject of the Governor of the Universe."

-JAMES MADISON

MARKET NEWS DIGEST

IMF: Oil could hit $100, hurt growth -CNN
Global lending organization says prices will remain volatile through 2030, posing 'serious risk.'
April 7, 2005

WASHINGTON (Reuters) - China's growing thirst for petroleum, tight supplies and little spare production capacity will keep oil prices volatile through 2030, with the possibility of spikes as high as $100 a barrel, the International Monetary Fund said Thursday.

The world faces "a permanent oil shock" and will have to adjust to sustained high prices in the next two decades, the International Monetary Fund said on Thursday in the starkest official warning yet about the long-term outlook for energy supplies.

"In short, it will continue to be a rocky ride going forward, with a wide band of uncertainty surrounding high expected prices," said Raghuram Rajan, the IMF's chief economist.

As living standards improve in China, India and other developing nations, oil demand will increase, especially for cars and trucks, Rajan told reporters. The IMF forecast indicates that China will be consuming nearly as much oil in 2030 as the U.S. consumes now. Currently the U.S. consumes about a quarter of the world's oil production.

"The oil market will remain tight in the coming years, and high and volatile oil prices will continue to present a serious risk to the global economy," the IMF said in its semiannual World Economic Outlook report.

Through 2010, oil prices will be subject to large swings as non-OPEC producers try to meet incremental demand. "Since the prospects for higher spare capacity are unfavorable, the market will likely remain tight and vulnerable to shocks," it said.

From 2010 through 2030, after non-OPEC output has peaked, the world will be more dependent on the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries to meet demand. That will also bring "growing upside risks to prices," the report said.

The IMF forecast average world oil prices in a range of $39 to $56 per barrel in 2030, as expressed in 2003 dollars. That would represent a range of $67 to $96 per barrel in nominal terms.

For 2005, the average world oil price will be about $52.23 a barrel, IMF analysts said. That is sharply higher than the $37.25 a barrel than the IMF forecast in its September report. $100/Barrel oil possible

U.S. crude oil soared to a record high of $58.28 per barrel on Monday in a buying frenzy triggered by a Goldman Sachs forecast that prices could spike as high as $105 per barrel.

Rajan said such a high price was possible.

"To the extent that there is some kind of supply disruption, $100 a barrel does not seem outlandish," he said. "Is it the most likely scenario? I think not necessarily. It depends on how the market evolves."

The new IMF report estimated world oil demand will grow to 138.5 million barrels per day in 2030 from 82.4 million bpd in 2004.

Significant growth will come from China, which was forecast to consume 19 million bpd of oil in 2030, more than triple the amount used in 2004, the IMF said.

http://www.cnn.com

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SPECIAL REPORT: $5 Gas Coming Soon!...The coming oil crisis will create economic and political discontinuity of historic proportions, as the world adjusts to a new energy environment and it's economic impact, for example...

Fed May Lift Rate `Vigorously' -BL

April 8 (Bloomberg) -- The dollar headed for a fourth week of gains after Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis President William Poole said policy makers may need to lift interest rates ``more vigorously'' should inflation accelerate.

Bigger rate increases by the Fed may widen the gap with Europe and Japan, where policy makers left borrowing costs unchanged this week. Evidence the Fed is concerned inflation pressure is building helped spur the dollar to a seven-week high against the euro and five-month high versus the yen on April 5.

``The potential of continued rate hikes is going to be dollar-supportive,'' particularly if the Fed opts for bigger rate boosts, said Firas Askari, head of currency trading in Toronto at the Bank of Montreal. ``It's just interest rate differentials. Money flocks there.''

The dollar rose to $1.2824 per euro at 10:30 a.m. in New York, from $1.2857 late yesterday, and is up 0.7 percent this week, according to electronic currency-dealing system EBS. It rose to 108.71 yen, from 108.62, a weekly gain of 1.2 percent. A break of $1.28 per euro means the dollar may rally to $1.2680 and then $1.25, where it will stall, Askari said.

``Should we see evidence that we are really getting into a more fundamental inflation problem, which I say is not my best guess, then you are going to see the Federal Reserve react more vigorously,'' Poole told reporters late yesterday after a speech in St. Louis. He doesn't vote on interest rates this year.

Demand for the dollar also climbed yesterday after Philadelphia Federal Reserve Bank President Anthony Santomero signaled he wasn't worried about last month's slowdown in job growth, in a speech in Washington.

http://www.bloomberg.com

Greenspan urges Fannie, Freddie portfolio limits -MW
Fed chief dismisses adverse impact on home buyers
By Greg Robb, MarketWatch
April 6, 2005

WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) - Federal Reserve board chairman Alan Greenspan told Congress that limiting the mortgage holdings of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac is the cornerstone for any new federal regulation over the mortgage giants.

If Congress does not limit the portfolios, "we run the risk of solidifying investors' perceptions that the government-sponsored enterprises are instruments of the government and that their debt is equivalent to government debt," Greenspan told the Senate Banking Committee on Tuesday.

Fannie and Freddie keep some mortgages on their books, known as retained portfolios. The companies hold about $1.5 trillion under these accounts.

Greenspan admitted that determining a suitable amount of capital for Fannie and Freddie "is a difficult and technical process."

Limiting Fannie and Freddie's holdings is expected to be a tough political fight. Opponents argue that limiting the size of their portfolios would hurt home buyers. But Greenspan dismissed these suggestions.

"Limitations on portfolio holdings could be imposed gradually over several years and then adjusted upward or downward depending on the growth of the single-family mortgage market," he said.

Overall, Greenspan gave strong support for congressional efforts to pass legislation to create a new regulator for Fannie and Freddie.

He said the new regulator must have "authority on par with banking regulators, with a free hand to set appropriate capital standards."

He said Congress must also change the current law that requires Congress to maintain the GSE in operation if it gets into financial trouble. There is no means of financing to do so, Greenspan said.

"Left unresolved, such uncertainties could threaten the stability of financial markets," he said.

http://www.marketwatch.com

Related Story:
3-25-05 -- FANNIE IS SCREAMING DANGER! -Rich Spohr, SATC...The nation's largest mortgage player Fannie Mae (FNM) is now circling the drain. Over the last 6 months FNM has dropped over 31%. Thats a $23 Billion dollar LOSS. Fannie is not merely the second largest financial entity in the country, after Citibank. Via her mortgage securitization, she's the engine of Real Estate Asset Inflation, the motor of Bubble II...

Gold edges up on currencies -Reuters
Tue Apr 5, 2005

LONDON, April 5 (Reuters) - Gold prices edged up on Tuesday afternoon on light, currency-induced short covering, dealers said, but near-term sentiment stayed bearish with expectations for higher U.S. interest rates seen boosting the dollar.

Spot gold firmed to $424.10/424.80 by 1453 GMT from $423.50/424.25 quoted late in New York on Monday.

The dollar gave up early gains that took it to a two-month peak versus the euro as markets focused on technical levels in the absence of U.S. data.

Bullion dealers said although prices had moved up, the market was still looking vulnerable.

U.S. Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan is speaking on energy later in the day. Any hint of worry about the inflationary impact of soaring oil prices could give a further boost to the dollar.

Dealers and analysts say bullion prices have struggled to maintain momentum as talk of rising interest rates started to bite along with continued speculation about the possibility of International Monetary Fund gold sales.

The price has lost around five percent since hitting a peak for the year at $446.70 on March 11.

"The market is struggling here -- I think there's enough noise in the gold market at the moment to reduce its investment appeal," a dealer said, adding that $418 was a key support level ahead of $410.

Bullion prices last fell towards $410 in early February, when participants were spooked by a British-led proposal to sell or revalue some of the IMF's huge gold stocks to help finance poor country debt relief.

The IMF is the world's third biggest holder of gold, with more than 100 million ounces, and any sales would be seen as significantly bearish.

Debt relief is on the agenda of the G7 meeting in Washington on April 15-17 alongside the spring gathering of the IMF and the World Bank.

Silver prices moved up in line with gold to $7.04/7.07 from $6.98/7.01 late in New York on Monday.

http://www.reuters.com

Oil Prices Surpass $58 a Barrel Mark -AP
By WEE SUI LEE, Associated Press Writer Apr 4, 2005

After touching a high of $58.28 in electronic trade, light, sweet crude for May delivery was up 58 cents to $57.85 a barrel in morning trade on the New York Mercantile Exchange. That topped the intraday high of $57.70 a barrel reached Friday, when the contract settled at a record $57.27.

Heating oil prices rose more than a cent to $1.6754 a gallon, while unleaded gasoline rose nearly a cent to $1.7405 a gallon.

Brent crude rose 48 cents to $56.99 a barrel on the International Petroleum Exchange, after exceeding $57 a barrel earlier in the session.

OPEC President Sheik Ahmed Fahd Al Ahmed Al Sabah, who is Kuwait's energy minister, said Monday that consultations started two days ago and ministers believe "we have to wait to see exactly how" prices behave in the next two weeks.

Any production increase would occur in May, Al Sabah said before a Parliamentary session.

"Until now, there is no shortage in the market" and there is enough supply, he said. "I think if prices continue to increase, we should increase the 500,000 (barrels a day)."

The group's oil ministers were "also waiting for the U.S. gasoline inventory," he added.

At its meeting last month, OPEC increased its production ceiling by 500,000 barrels to 27.5 million barrels a day and said it might provide for another 500,000 barrels a day if crude prices did not stabilize.

Al Sabah has attributed the recent change in prices to psychological fears of supply shortages and added that OPEC should reassure the market in order to cap the price surge.

OPEC already is exceeding the production ceiling, at around 28 million barrels a day, according to Al Sabah.

http://www.ap.org

Related Story:
4-5-05 -- Venezuela's Oil Minister Says OPEC Running Out of Spare Production Capacity -AP ... CARACAS, Venezuela (AP) -- The Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries is running out of spare production capacity, Venezuelan Oil Minister Rafael Ramirez said Tuesday. "OPEC's production capacity is reaching its limit," Ramirez told reporters, adding that it is too early for OPEC to decide on a possible half-million barrel per day production increase.

U.S. Holds Biggest Terror Simulation to Test Response -BL

April 4 (Bloomberg) -- The U.S. today began a five-day exercise, the largest of its kind, simulating twin terrorist attacks with biological and chemical weapons on New Jersey and Connecticut and testing the nation's ability to respond.

At least 10,000 people representing more than 275 government agencies, private organizations and international bodies are participating, according to the U.S. Department of Homeland Security.

The congressionally mandated drill was to begin with reports that terrorists had spread a biological agent through New Jersey's Middlesex and Union Counties -- less than an hour's drive from New York City -- and had detonated a chemical weapon in New London, Connecticut. The attacks trigger a U.S. health crisis.

``We are going to push our plans and our systems to the very limit,'' Homeland Security Secretary Michael Chertoff said at a news conference this morning in Washington. ``We're actually going to go beyond what we might really expect, to test our operational assumptions and our policy assumptions in the most stressful possible environment. That's how you really tell if you are prepared.''

Chertoff declined to offer any initial assessment of how government agencies are performing, including how U.S. intelligence agencies responded to a simulated stream of clues in the days leading up to the mock attacks.

http://www.bloomberg.com

Minutemen catch 162 illegals so far -WND
New Mexico official hopes to expand citizen volunteer project to 2nd state
April 6, 2005
� 2005 WorldNetDaily.com

In its second day of operations, the civilian volunteer Minuteman Project claimed to have aided the Border Patrol in the apprehension of 162 illegal aliens along the Arizona border and deterred many more from attempting to cross from Mexico.

With the project gaining favorable attention, a city official from New Mexico announced he would like to expand the project to his state.

Bob Park makes reference to President Bush's ranch as he welcomes Minutemen to Arizona (courtesy: Tombstone Tumbleweed)

"It has been successful," said Chris Simcox of Civil Homeland Defense, a group aiding the Minuteman Project. "No one has come across."

While President Bush and other officials have characterized the Minutemen as "vigilantes" and Mexico's President Vicente Fox has threatened them with prosecution, the group is getting more favorable attention from some media outlets and radio talk-show hosts impressed with their composure, discipline and orderliness.

Meanwhile, Albuquerque City Councilman David Pfeffer said he wants to bring the Minuteman Project to New Mexico. Pfeffer said he wants to be personally involved in the volunteer effort to patrol the border for illegal immigrants and smugglers.

"I would be willing to get involved with an effort along New Mexico's borders," Pfeffer said.

Pfeffer said he attended a gathering Friday of Minuteman volunteers in Tombstone and that the meeting helped persuade him to support the effort.

"What I understood from their message ... was that we have a serious problem at the border," Pfeffer said.

Pfeffer said he would "absolutely" be willing to get involved with a New Mexico citizen border-patrol project.

As for carrying a weapon, Pfeffer said he "wouldn't go out there unarmed."

"There is a Mexican drug cartel that has threatened peoples' lives because of this," Pfeffer said. "The smugglers that come across the borders will shoot at you. So no, I don't think it's unreasonable to think that some people have armed themselves."

Pfeffer said some residents of Santa Fe, New Mexico, were also present in Tombstone for the purpose of learning from the experience to expand the effort to their state.

Meanwhile, in Tombstone, Simcox said the effort has exceeded his expectations so far.

"I'm just ecstatic with how successful it's been," Simcox said.

Hundreds of the citizen volunteers, armed with binoculars and radios, are casting themselves as the eyes and ears of the Border Patrol, whose top officials have also denounced the action, though rank-and-file agents have been spotted thanking the Minutemen for their presence.

"We want to continue through the summer until the government caves," Simcox said. "Our president and Congress have continued to ignore this issue, the most serious threat to national security is this border."

The Minutemen, named after U.S. War of Independence militia group in New England, is made up of civilians from across the United States, many of them retired servicemen or law enforcement personnel.

The Minutemen are guarding a 23-mile stretch of the border where one out of every five of the 1.1 million illegal immigrants arrested last year crossed into the U.S., according to Border Patrol statistics.

The volunteers report illegal crossers to the Border Patrol rather than confront or detain illegal aliens themselves.

"Our aim is to send a message to Mr. Bush and Congress that they have not listened to the demands of citizens," said Simcox. "We are modeling what homeland security should look like. There should be National Guardsmen every 2,000 yards from the Pacific to the Gulf of Mexico. You can't find a greater threat to the U.S. than right here."

So far, more than a thousand Americans have descended on a remote stretch of the U.S.-Mexican border to join the Minuteman Project.

The Minuteman Project is having an impact. Smugglers have told the Mexican press that crossing in the area where the Minutemen are patrolling is now virtually impossible and they have to go elsewhere or wait 30 days until the Minutemen are gone.

But Simcox is hoping more volunteers will join the effort and sustain it through the summer.

About 66,000 illegal immigrants were caught last month in one area where the Minutemen are now patrolling. Border Patrol officials admit many more evade capture.

Besides deterring illegal immigration and helping capture some aliens, the Minutemen believe their action is raising awareness of the border problem and may force Congress and Bush to rethink the guest worker plan many of his core supporters oppose.

Rep. Tom Tancredo, leader of the House Immigration Reform Caucus, and a supporter of the Minuteman Project says the Department of Homeland Security's decision to send 500 more Porder Patrol agents to the troubled area last week is no coincidence.

But he points out those agents were transferred from other parts of the porous Mexican border.

"If we secure the Arizona border, then we will see a massive shift ... to New Mexico border," he says. "And then if we secure the New Mexico border, we'll see a massive shift to the Texas border. So it goes until you actually seal the border."

Tancredo says a security fence, like that built by the Israelis and many other countries, is a "perfectly acceptable, low-tech method of trying to stop people from coming into your country without your knowledge." Tancredo says even though Congress has passed legislation authorizing 2,000 more agents per year for the next five years, the Bush administration does not want to hire them.

Related stories:
Minuteman Project snagging first illegals -WND
ACLU to monitor Minuteman Project-WND
Showdown at border?-WND

Who Were the Minutemen? -USHistory.org ... Although the terms militia and minutemen are sometimes used interchangeably today, in the 18th century there was a decided difference between the two. Militia were men in arms formed to protect their towns from foreign invasion and ravages of war. Minutemen were a small hand-picked elite force which were required to be highly mobile and able to assemble quickly. Minutemen were selected from militia muster rolls by their commanding officers. Typically 25 years of age or younger, they were chosen for their enthusiasm, reliability, and physical strength. Usually about one quarter of the militia served as Minutemen, performing additional duties as such. The Minutemen were the first armed militia to arrive or await a battle.

Related offer:
Illegal aliens invading U.S. -Book Offer
FREE DVD - Citizen's Guide to Counterterrorism -

WASHINGTON -- A new organization created to defeat President Bush's plans for Social Security intends to open a television ad campaign this week depicting the proposal as the tip of an iceberg that will cut benefits and raise the national debt.

Erik Smith, a spokeman for ProtectYourCheck.org, said the group will spend nearly $1 milion to show the commercial on cable stations nationally over the next three weeks. Other ads will follow on broadcast stations, he said, aimed at individual lawmakers of both parties.

The new organization is the latest entry into what has become something of an extention of last year's presidential campaign.

The White House, Republican Party and outside groups are working to build support for Bush's Social Security proposal. On the other side, the Democratic Party, former aides to John Kerry and others who worked in outside organizations to elect him are now trying to torpedo the top domestic initiative of Bush's second term.

The ad will air as Congress returns from a two-week break and the administration moves into the second half of an intensive 60-day campaign to raise public support for Bush's call for Social Security legislation.

Recent surveys indicate that Americans in growing numbers believe Social Security faces financial difficulties. Yet polls also indicate the public is increasingly skeptical of the president's call for voluntary personal accounts for younger workers as part of any overhaul.

The commercial by ProtectYourCheck is designed to strengthen that skepticism.

http://www.newsday.com

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Uniting America on Social Security Reform

After The Housing Boom -BW
What the coming slowdown means for the economy -- and you
Apr 4, 2005

Admit it -- you've done it. You've surfed Web sites such as GetMyHomesValue.com and Domania.com to get a sense of the real estate values in your city. On weekends you skim local real estate ads to check asking prices. And at neighborhood dinner parties you steer the conversation to find out what price that four-bedroom colonial down the block fetched when it sold last month.

In today's ownership society, few investments have been so lucrative for so many as homeownership. Since 2001 extremely cheap mortgage rates have fueled a record-setting level of home sales. Frenzied demand caused home prices to jump at rates not seen since the 1980s and generated 10% gains each year in housing wealth for many Americans, who quickly used refinancings or home-equity loans to convert some of the windfall into cash.

With millions of Americans still eager to get into the housing bonanza, it's no wonder signs of overheating are popping up. At building sites from Florida to California, househunters stand in line just for the chance to buy a home. Investors are flipping properties almost overnight. For some lucky folks, home values have doubled in five years. And in early 2005 the boom was in full swing. New-home sales surprised many economists by jumping 9.4% in February, to an annual rate of 1.2 million. And starts rose to a yearly pace of 2.2 million in the month, a level not seen consistently since housing's go-go 1970s.

But hold on. Despite February's strong numbers, 2005 looks to be the year that housing finally cools off. Thanks to tighter monetary policy and a stronger-than-expected economy, mortgage rates are on the rise. In just six weeks, rates have jumped by almost half a percentage point, to over 6%, by Mar. 25. By 2006 they will likely hit 7%. As a result, economists surveyed by Blue Chip Economic Indicators see housing starts slipping by about 5% this year and more in 2006. Sales are likely to fall by the same amount. On a national level, home prices aren't going to plunge -- they just won't rise very much. "Home prices will rust, not bust, for the next few years," says Richard Berner, chief U.S. economist for Morgan Stanley (MWD ).

Housing's slowdown will be relatively mild compared with past downturns, though there are pockets of froth. Why? It's taking place at a time when the economy is expected to grow by over 3.5%. In the past 40 years, national new-home prices have fallen only twice, and both times were during a recession.

Besides the good job and income growth associated with a healthy economy, there are other compelling reasons that the market won't soften too much. Baby boomers continue to fuel demand -- especially for second homes -- and immigrants are increasingly becoming first-time home buyers.

Even so, the new reality will have a big impact on homeowners who have begun to look at 10% annual gains in home values as a birthright. Consumers who made a habit of tapping into their home equity will find that their home is no longer a personal ATM. Anyone counting on continued home appreciation to fund their retirement or pay for their children's education may face a big shortfall when the bills come due. The new ways that housing is financed also shift the risk of rate changes from banks to homeowners. That could squeeze some families who have adjustable-rate mortgages.

FULL STORY

COMMENTARY

THE BIG SQUEEZE -Stephen Roach, Morgan Stanley
Apr 4, 2005

A US-centric global economy continues to run on fumes. In the developed world, the current recovery has been notable for a lack of organic income growth -- the wage earnings derived from productive employment. For Europe and Japan, this income shortfall has restrained domestic consumption -- forcing these two economies to rely largely on external demand as their only real source of growth. America has been different: Consumption has boomed even in the face of subpar labor income growth. Can this anomaly persist?

The simple answer, in my view, is not for long. America's income-short, consumer-led recovery is the aberration -- not the norm -- in this Brave New World. It is all about ever-declining personal saving rates, ever-widening current account deficits, mounting debt burdens, and increasingly wealth-dependent consumers. It personifies what I believe is one of the most precarious macro models that has ever existed for a major economic power. It is a model that not only puts pressure on future prospects in the US but also underscores the tensions bearing down on the rest of the world. In my view, income-short growth models are not sustainable -- the only question pertains to the circumstances of their demise.

Strong words, I realize that. But consider the facts: Lagging employment and real wage growth has been a hallmark of the first half of the 2000s in the developed world. Unemployment in Europe and Japan is hovering near-post-World War II highs. The US is in the midst of the weakest period of job creation in modern history -- its unemployment rate has been depressed by those fleeing the work force. Jobless recoveries have become the norms in most major segments of the developed world. And they persist to this very day.

A similar pattern is evident in the other driver of labor income generation -- worker pay rates. According to the OECD, compensation per hour in the Euro area expanded at an anemic 2.3% average annual rate over the 2001-04 period; for Japan, hourly compensation actually declined by 1.2%, on average, over this same time frame; even in the US, growth in hourly worker pay averaged only 3.3% over the past four years. For Europe and Japan, these trends work out to virtually no growth in inflation-adjusted, or real terms. With inflation (i.e., the private consumption deflator) averaging 2.1% in the Euro area over the 2001-04 period, that translates into only 0.2% growth in real compensation per hour over this period. Japan�s average deflation rate of 1.4% over the past four years puts its real hourly compensation growth at a positive +0.2% -- the same as the European trend.

FULL STORY

NO GOLD MANIPULATION, RIGHT? -Alex Wallenwein
EURO vs DOLLAR MONITOR
Apr 4, 2005

Despite the massive evidence which the likes of GATA and its supporters, including Frank Veneroso, James Turk, and others have amassed over the past six years or so, there are still people (especially mining execs and mining web site owners who should know better) who continue to pooh-pooh the very notion of it.

Once a gold analyst has shown me a CRB-Gold chart some time ago that looked something like this:

Of course, the chart raised this question: If gold is so "manipulated", then why does it so perfectly track the CRB? Are all commodities manipulated in the same way? Doesn't this prove there is no manipulation?

Well, that depends.

It depends on the time frame you are looking at. The shorter the time frame, the closer together appear the starting points for any particular price line on a multi-commodity chart. Just playing around a bit while checking how far gold is below the rest of the CRB, I hit the "1950" button on my trusty "Economagic" service, and look what I found:

While the other, truly industrial, metals sub-index (the green line) sometimes over-and sometimes undershot the CRB Futures Index, gold has just languished far below the $400 line since 1981.

Isn't that kinda strange?

Kinda strange, also, that precisely since 1971, when Nixon took the dollar off the international exchange standard, the other commodities took off and soared while gold kept scraping the bottom of the barrel until only a couple of years after it was "officially demonetized" (demonized??) in 1976.

At that time it began a humongous catch-up bid, which it almost won - except for Paul Volcker's 1980 interest-rate trapez-act born of sheer desperation.

After that, the CRB rarely ever retraced its path to less than midway between it's 1981 high and the barrel's bottom, and on the only two occasions it did, it jumped right back above it. Only gold was condemned to a rueful existence far below the $400 water mark - until recently.

The question naturally comes to mind: Why?

If gold was and is truly "just a commodity" as so many brain-washed (or worse) financial analysts are claiming, then why didn't it move right along with the other commodities?

Manipulation? Naah! No way. It just can't be, ... right?

Well, if you have a better explanation, one that equally jumps right in your face, and which equally comports with all the underlying factors and historical developments, I'd like to hear it.

By the way: do you notice the indexes' collective action since 2001? At right around the very same time, all three of them bottomed and have gone nowhere but up since then. Interesting.

Hmm...; Could gold be in the process of repeating its feat of 1980? Might it even break its own record?

The picture gets especially interesting when the dollar is added into the equation. (Now the dollar is represented by the green line):

Note the vertical black line showing that all three commodities reversed course within months from each other. Gold and the CRB in 2001, and the dollar in January of 2002, when the physical component of the new euro currency hit the markets.

And now to the absolute strongest part of the proof that gold was, is, and will remain, the focus of world-wide monetary policymakers, and remains the standard against which they measure their "performance." (Drum roll, please.)

The strongest evidence lies in what you don't see.

You simply don't see any of the mind-boggling contortions among virtually all of the economic parameters in the pre-1971 period. Prior to the dollar coming off gold in 1971, the world's economic seas were - well - calm.

Yes, there was the Great Depression. Yes, there were wars, recessions, inflations, depressions, etc., but when compared to the whiplash-causing aberrations we have experienced ever since, it was all a cakewalk. I suspect that even the "great" depression will be remembered as a mere cakewalk when the new, far greater, depression that is yet to come sets in.

It may come gradually, or it may come abruptly, but come it will, and the effects will be severe.

If you are an economist and have ever wanted to see a visual representation of the imbalances that result from following Maynard Keynes idiotology too much, all you have to do is look at this chart. Maybe you'll decide to seek another field after that. It's gonna be very stressful if you decide to support the establishment version of why things are the way they are.

What the world needs to do is to pour some "yellow oil" on these crazy economic waves that we (or rather our leaders, with our ill-informed acquiescence) have created for ourselves. Only gold can calm this mess. No euro, no optimum currency regions, no implanted RFID chip system, can hide this turmoil any longer.

Any government, any business, any individual who (or which) does not align himself (or itself) with this undisputable reality will eat dirt. Maybe first-class dirt - but it will still be dirt.

This chart literally cinches all attempted arguments to the contrary right into the garbage sack where they belong. There isn't really anything else to be said about it.

Got gold?

www.a1-guide-to-gold-investments.com/euro-vs-dollar.html

Atomic Iran Book Review -Townhall.com
Review by Dexter Ingram
Apr 4, 2005

Atomic Iran: How the Terrorist Regime Bought the Bomb and American Politicians By Jerome R. Corsi

Imagine several of the most powerful forces of the Western world seeking to appease the leaders of a rogue nation in the name of negotiation by providing them with the materials needed to create the greatest magnitude of devastation. Team this with the provision of nuclear materials and instruction from Middle Eastern black market nuclear experts in the field, and the danger becomes unmistakably clear to anyone willing to objectively evaluate the situation. This entire scenario is superbly documented by Jerome R. Corsi in Atomic Iran - How the Terrorist Regime Bought the Bomb and American Politicians. Using hard facts, Corsi illustrates what a severe threat Iran, as a member of the "Axis of Evil," poses to the U.S., Israel, and supporters of freedom everywhere.

The only apparent obstacle in Iran's path to nuclear success is the world's greatest superpower, the United States. Even the U.S., though, meets opposition at every turn from the "EU-3" (France, Germany, and Great Britain), from the U.N.'s International Atomic Energy Agency, and even from many of its own national politicians and activists. These entities desire to continue negotiations, to compromise, and to give Iran what it's asking for, with mere promises in return, and then to discover whether Iran can be trusted. Corsi uses proven history lessons - from Neville Chamberlain's accommodating Hitler to the Clinton Administration's unilateral compromises with North Korea - to demonstrate why we cannot wait for Iran to betray our trust on the nuclear front. In Corsi's own words, "�one nuclear weapon could destroy Israel as we know it" (see simulation below).

Progress in the Middle East under the Bush Administration is rolling along at a pace never before experienced. However, America's friends in the region, from Pakistan to Iraq, from Afghanistan to Israel, stand to lose all achieved thus far if the unelected few who rule Iran are allowed to impose their terrorist regime on the region and the world. For people who think the Holocaust was merely a conspiracy theory developed to rob Palestinians of land, and for those whose greatest goal is to be eternally rewarded for their own martyrdom in destroying Israel and the West, the only thing separating them from the end of the world as we know it is the material needed to create this destruction.

The mad mullahs governing Iran have made no secret of their hatred for Israel, the U.S., and these two nations' allies. If Americans merely stand by while Iran builds its nuclear program, all the while providing it with the much sought-after nuclear material in exchange for an unenforceable agreement with the Western world, they will not be able to say Corsi didn't warn them of the inevitable. Corsi has supplied us with valuable information in Atomic Iran; it is up to us to ensure that our own government stands its ground in the face of pressure and continues to refuse to negotiate with terrorists.

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Mortgages: Putting Time on Your Side
Karisa Brunken
Apr 4, 2005

Buying or refinancing a home can be a daunting, overwhelming, intimidating task.

Clients often do not which way to turn from choosing a lender to choosing the length of term. As a result, many people end up, in effect, getting a raw deal because they didn't know what they were doing when negotiating financing terms.

Even though a short-term loan will often cost the borrower more money in the short run, it also increases equity and minimizes overall debt, giving the borrower far more bang for his or her proverbial buck in the long haul.

Of the literally thousands of mortgage lenders from which to choose, most come to the table offering two terms: 15 or 30-year fixed-rate mortgages (though many are beginning to offer 20-year, fixed-rate mortgages).

From the Freddie Mac Web site (www.freddiemac.com), here's a break-down:

15-Year Term -- This term has higher monthly payments because the loan is shorter. The interest rate is usually lower and the client can build equity faster.

20-Year Term -- This fixed-rate mortgage builds equity more quickly than with a traditional 30-year mortgage as well as saves the borrower interest over the life of the loan.

30-Year Term -- Interest rates may be somewhat higher for this term and the borrower may pay more interest over time.

Of course, loan officers want borrowers to go for the longer terms. Why? Because that's how they earn money.

On a 30-year note, clients qualify for larger loan amounts and the interest rates are higher, thus raising the loan officer's commission rate. Lenders love long-term mortgages because they are making thousands more off interest as opposed to short-term mortgages, and therefore they reward the loan officer accordingly.

But, what's in the best interest of the loan officer and the lender is not necessarily in the borrowers best interest.

Obviously, if the borrower is paying off the note quicker (say, on a 15-year term) the interest rate will probably be at least a point or two lower and he or she will build equity in the property a lot faster. But, here's the catch -- the borrower has to know to ask.

What is often the case is that a loan officer will first present a deal to the client (a technique called "up-selling") that will make the loan officer the most money. ("Why sure, I can find financing on a $150,000 home. We can get you 6-percent on a 30-year fixed if you bring 10 percent to closing.")

What the borrower should do at that point is ask if he or she qualifies for a 15 or even a 20-year term, what the interest rate would be, and approximately how much the monthly payment would be.

Should the borrower not like the answer he or she hears, the borrower should shop around to other lenders and potentially another loan officer. Remember, like buying a car, there's always more than one game in town. (FYI -- many loan officers once worked in automobile sales).

Should the borrower qualify for a short-term loan, he or she could potentially save 10s of thousands of dollars over the life of the loan.

Should a purchaser not qualify right off the bat for a 15 or 20-year term, he or she shouldn't be disheartened. What the borrower can do is go ahead and get a 30-year fixed at first, then in 12 to 24 months down the road (depending on the terms of contract), the borrower can get the home refinanced.

Also, most borrowers don't realize that going directly through a retail bank will often result in a higher interest rate, not matter what term he or she chooses. That's because the retail bank is not up against thousand of lenders hungry for the client's business. The loan officer at a retail bank represents only one lender: the bank in question. A loan officer working for a broker has many, many lenders from which to choose.

What most people need to understand is that it's totally acceptable and otherwise in their best interest to bargain with a lender and/or loan officer. Allowing oneself to be intimidated by the mortgage process will more often than not result in the borrower getting a less-than-optimum deal for his or herself.

The borrower can and should negotiate and shop around for the best deal in down. So, don't be afraid of being a player in "the art of the deal."

-- Karisa Brunken is a loan consultant in Dallas with a bachelor's degree in Political Science with emphasis in economics and has worked for Chase Manhattan Mortgage, and several mortgage brokers. She also has several years experience as a print and broadcast journalist and serves as co-producer of America At Night (9pm-1am PT) with host Craig Smith. which launched nationally April 4, 2005 on over 80 radio stations.

DO GOD AND MONEY MIX? -Tyler Mathisen, CNBC
CNBC examines the growing business of evangelical Christianity
April 1, 2005

Evangelicalism is one of the fastest-growing religious movements in the United States, and now this ardent form of Christianity is starting to flex its economic muscles.

In Corporate America, the religion's growing status is seen in all kinds of businesses. From health clubs to Hollywood movies, and from publishing companies to pizza parlors, firms around the United States are now saying they have Christian values at their core.

Jesus is big business in America, explains Laura Nash, Ph.D., a senior research fellow at Harvard Business School.

In fact, Jesus has always been big business in America says Nash. And while the message of the Bible has been constant over the years, today's Christian messengers are very different from those of days gone by.

From Houston smiling pastor Joel Osteen to the fiery sermons of Dallas, Bishop T.D. Jakes, today's superstar preachers are spreading the word of God to mega-congregations of tens of thousands of people, an economic force in their own right.

And these new Christian leaders are acting like CEOs of mini-conglomerates that turn out best-selling books, CDs, DVDs and even major motion pictures.

I think that Jesus is the product, says author and televangelist T.D. Jakes, who is currently bishop at The Potters House, a primarily African-American Pentecostal church in Dallas. "When the product is excellent, it doesn't require a big sales pitch."

Not content with preaching to the choir, Christian authors and broadcasters are going after the secular market too. Bill Hearn, for example, the CEO of EMI Christian Music Group, says his company's vision is to impact popular culture from a biblical world view.

Joel Osteen, a best-selling author and televangelist who is currently pastor of Lakewood Church in Houston, one of North America's largest churches, says his message is not only heard by the converted.

"People say, I've never been to church, but you know I'm watching your broadcast, I'm reading your book," Osteen said. "So I think faith is definitely growing all across America."

But while Christian-based business has morphed into a multi-billion dollar industry, and an economic success story, what about the non-believers? Does the increasing closeness of Christianity and commerce have the potential to make some consumers uncomfortable?

Harvard's Laura Nash says that Americans have always viewed freedom of religion as the freedom to express religious beliefs up to a point. That is, as long as it doesn't impinge on another American's freedom to express their own religious freedom.

And there's another consideration: Is the Christian movement just what a scandal-scarred corporate America needs? Os Hillman of consultancy Marketplace Leaders, who is a nationally known leader on faith in the workplace, is optimistic.

"God does not frown on people with money," Hillman said. "The issue here is the love of money versus money itself."

Editor's note: CNBC on Assignment: God & Money� aired on CNBC at 8:00 p.m. and 11:00 p.m. ET on Thursday, March 31.

NBC NEWS SPECIAL SERIES -- Faith In America

Crossing the Threshold of Hope -LR
by Carlo Stagnaro, LewRockwell.com
Apr 4, 2005

The last steps of the earthly journey of John Paul II embody the mystery of the Christian calling: there is no contradiction between the "athlete of God," the pontiff who liked to ski the most difficult slopes, to the scandalized bafflement of many and the little frail man, stooped under the weight of age, the illness, and the Cross. The priest hanging by a ever thinner thread to his life is the very same who, as the President of the Italian Episcopal Conference (IEC) Cardinal Camillo Ruini said, "can already see and feel the Lord."

Ruini did not choose his words casually: "see" and "feel" are verbs permeated by a deep materiality. The most important legacy of John Paul II is perhaps his stressing the importance of the flesh. The Pope does not belong to that host of moralists that define their Christianity along the lines of abstinence: life is to be sucked dry. In a rather jocular turn of the phrase, Cardinal Giacomo Biffi explained once that the goal of the Christian is to enter Heaven, if at all possible, with a full belly. Catholicism added Biffi is the "religion of tortellini." It is not by chance that all the major heresies are rooted in a spiritualist bent: the negation of the material world or, at the very least, the banishment of the flesh to the horizon of evil.

The Holy Father never ceded to this temptation. He was always able to share with the world his deep love of life and its joys, including the material ones. His unprecedented habit of kissing the soil of the countries he visited, his unfailing smile, his very willingness to make apparent his current suffering, everything about him reveals the certainty that Catholicism's promise is a total one: our soul�s salvation goes along with our body�s resurrection.

It is no surprise, then, that the red thread of this Papacy was the emphasis on the theme of life. The worst threat today doesn't come much from materialism, but its opposite, namely the notion that human life is somehow less significant than the dizzy heights of the spirit, that material life is a sort of hindrance, the necessary and unpleasant premise to a sublimated eternity. Quite the opposite: the Bishop of Rome as Ruini remarked "lived, worked, suffered, rejoiced" with "the same inner peacefulness and trusting abandonment in the hands of God" with which he is facing his death bed.

On the pages of last Saturday's Corriere della Sera Vittorio Messori painted an "already sanctified hero," able to put together "the freedom of the children of God and the discipline of the obedient Catholics." This is a Pope who managed to defuse the terrible tension pervading the Church at the time of his election: the tension between the flight from past orthodoxy and the instinctive closing within its own ranks. Wojtyla conceived a Church capable of coming to terms with the modern world without betraying the heritage of two thousand years of history or surrendering the claim to a timeless Truth.

Messori also defined him as "the first color Pope," whereas Pius XII was a "radio Pope," John XIII a "proto-television" one, and Paul VI a "black and white" one. The Pope gave himself fully to the mass media. He went as far as to allow, if not to welcome, the insistent gaze of the cameras on his tired and gaunt features, his palsied hands, his gravelly voice. In so doing, he could turn the newspeople into God's people, making of his own illness, in the days in which its effects are particularly devastating, a formidable tool of conversion. The pain of this Polish Pope, witnessed by the whole world, is an echo of the passion of Christ. Neither of them hid themselves from view. The bodies of Christ and his Vicar are marked by the burning wounds that hurt the flesh as well as the spirit.

"I am happy" whispered the Pope from his death bed, "You be, too. Let us pray together in bliss."

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Outpouring for Pope masks Europe's spiritual crisis -Charen
Mona Charen, Townhall.com
April 8, 2005

[Image: Monarchs, heads of state and other dignitaries attend the funeral mass for Pope John Paul II in Saint Peter's Square at the Vatican, April 8, 2005. The poor and powerful joined in a final farewell to Pope John Paul Friday at a momentous Vatican funeral watched by tens of millions of people across the world. Photo by Jerry Lampen/Reuters]

They stood in a line that stretched at least a mile, sometimes 30 abreast. Huddled in blankets in the evening cold, and gratefully accepting bottled water from priests patrolling the line during the hot daylight hours, the mourners -- who wanted one last glimpse of Pope John Paul II -- waited patiently for as long as 12 hours. The funeral of this modern pope has become the greatest Christian pilgrimage of all time. Accordingly, images out of Rome this week give the impression of a still-vibrant European Christianity.

And yet, this outpouring, fattened by the presence of 2 million Poles, is somewhat misleading. For while believers have not disappeared (particularly in the newly free countries of Eastern Europe), they have become a distinct minority in a continent that is decidedly post-Christian.

The new European Constitution contains some 70,000 words. But nowhere is there a reference to Christianity or to the Judeo-Christian tradition. Europe's commitment to human rights, according to the document, arose from classical antiquity and from the Enlightenment. Fifteen hundred years of Christian influence were airbrushed out. When a phrase acknowledging Europe's Christian patrimony was suggested (by a Jewish scholar, actually), the French and others vehemently objected.

Across Western Europe, churches stand empty on Sunday mornings (though in Poland and other Eastern European nations this is not the case). And among the intellectual elites, Christian commitment is regarded as an embarrassment -- as even perhaps a disqualifying trait for high office. (There are echoes of this attitude in the United States, as well. Last year, Senate Democrats blocked the confirmation of Judge William Pryor due to his "deeply held religious views." Pryor is a practicing Catholic.)

Culture, Weigel argues, determines civilization. Without its distinctly Christian history, Europe would not be what it is. To cite just one example, Weigel recalls the 11th century "investiture" controversy between Holy Roman Emperor Henry IV and Pope Gregory VII. The pope won, and the victory established an important principle that would have profound consequences for the development of what would later be called "civil society." The principle established was that the state "would not occupy every inch of social space."

Nor is it possible to conceive of the great figures of European history apart from their Christianity. Weigel lists dozens of names and reminds the reader that these emblematic Europeans were all influenced by, often completely imbued with, their faith -- much to the continent's good. Benedict, Bernini, Becket, Bach, Bacon, Calvin, Cromwell, Dante, Dostoevsky, Gutenberg, Michelangelo, Milton, More, Wesley and Wilberforce, among many others. Weigel acknowledges Christianity's sins and errors, but wonders whether atheistic humanists recognize theirs.

Europe today is a society adrift, untethered to the source of its greatness. It is, to use the great Jewish American writer Will Herberg's formulation, "a cut flower culture." And just as Europeans are losing the elemental desire to preserve their civilization, Muslim immigrants stand ready to vindicate the loss of 1683. It is not inconceivable that European civilization -- post-Christian, politically correct and too weary to take its own side in a quarrel (to paraphrase Robert Frost) -- may yet deliver to the Muslim world a delayed victory.

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Welcome to the 21st century paradigm shift
-- from a "stock-driven era" to a new "commodity-driven era."
In "Economic Solutions for the 21st Century" you'll discover ...
* SOCIAL SECURITY REFORM ... A plan to unify America
* WHY YOU MUST OWN assets that offset a DECLINING DOLLAR
* WSJ SAYS: "You don't have to be rich to invest in COINS."
* WHY SILVER could rise to $50, $75 or even $100 per ounce.
* "ATOMIC IRAN" spells the beginning of a new U.S. "Dirty War"