Market News ~ Feb 2006

Gold and silver are safe havens
$561 gold -- up 8.5% ytd... $9.74 silver -- up 11% ytd...
The last great buying opportunity for metals? Experts: YES!
Dow 11k!? ~ Google "gurgles"... "More money in Gold than Google"
Commodities trump stocks ... Housing "hisses"... Wall St. slumps...
"Rates may need to rise" -Bernanke... Confidence down...

By David Bradshaw, IdeaFactory News
Latest :60 "Golden Minute" -Listen-
Feb. 28, 2006 ~ Happy Fat Tuesday!

Gold prices firmed up Tuesday on weak economic reports, a softer dollar and fund buying after a warning that gold supplies from mines will decline in 2006. Gold closed up $6.90 to $561/oz. -- up 8.5% ytd. Silver closed up 11 cents to $9.74/oz. -- up 11% ytd. Analysts remain positive on the investment outlook for metals, despite the recent shakeout.

"This year smart investors will make more money in gold than in Google stock, as the first two months have already illustrated. With a healthy correction in precious metal prices now over, it demonstrates why precious metals are stronger than ever. Even when the big funds and banks sell off on profit taking, the gap is quickly filled with strong demand from the growing global base of smaller investors. Gold is on a trajectory to reach $600/oz. or more this year based on market fundamentals and current geopolitical conditions", says Swiss America CEO Craig R. Smith.

The Bank of China announced Tuesday plans to allow investors to buy and sell gold using their US dollar accounts in a move to boost sales of the precious metal. Under "paper gold" trading, investors can buy and sell certificates that track the market price of gold.

March Volatility... Bullish for Metals! ... "For some time I have been focusing on March 2006, for there's a convergence of very important events occurring this month. I believe, on the whole, will be gold and silver bullish. Our technical analysis of gold and silver confirms this outlook... we are in a bull market of a lifetime and that the eventual highs are much, much higher", says MICHEL DE CHABERT-OSTLAND at LemetropoleCafe.com.

Gold prices consolidated Monday, as speculation that higher energy prices will stoke inflation faded and relative calm in the Mid East relieved investors. Gold prices closed down $3.80 to $554.60/oz., silver closed off 7 cents to $9.63/oz. "Some profit taking emerged as oil prices soften, but the current backdrop of geo-political tensions and nervous currency/energy markets are likely to draw investors towards more traditionally safe-haven assets such as gold," said James Moore, an analyst at TheBullionDesk.com

Gold climbed nearly $10 an ounce Friday, as investors fretted over a suicide bombing outside an oil refinery in Saudi Arabia. The report of an explosion lifted prices for oil by 2%. Gold closed up $9.60 to $558.40/oz, silver jumped 22 cents to $9.70/oz as traders and investors sought a safe haven from a weaker U.S. dollar.

"Commodities trump stocks as long-term bet" reports Reuters. Oil, gold, grains and other commodities will outperform stocks and bonds in coming years, even after the rallies that have pushed some prices to historic highs, investment adviser Puru Saxena said on Thursday. "When commodity prices start rising due to supply and demand imbalances, then financial assets generally tend to under-perform. Investors ... need to take positions in commodities for the next 10 to 15 years."

Rising inflation helped fuel fresh gold buying last week as the U.S. Producer Price Index for January showed its biggest monthly jump in a year. Core PPI was up 0.4 percent, while headline PPI rose 0.3 percent last month. The dollar pared gains after University of Michigan consumer sentiment data came in below expectations.

Is this the last great buying opportunity for gold? asks AME... "Those who predicted that gold would suffer a sell-off at $500 an ounce were proven hopelessly wrong in the first seven weeks of 2006. The yellow metal has soared past the $570 barrier and its present retreat to above $540 an ounce is probably the last great buying opportunity before prices head to much higher levels."

The recent price corrections provide a good opportunity for physical consumers, "don't miss the boat again. Supply and demand fundamentals remain constructive for the uptrends to persist" according to Barclays Capital.

U.S. stock losses mounted quickly Tuesday after Google Inc's chief financial officer reportedly warned of slowing growth at the Internet company, with a number of weak economic reports further undermining sentiment. The Dow retreated from above the 11,000 level it crossed on Feb. 21st.

As for the significance of Dow 11k... "The problem is that stock indexes tell investors very little about the individual stock and virtually nothing about it's true value. Stocks in general are "priced for perfection" in a world that's far from perfect", according to Craig R. Smith. (see DOW 11,000... Not NOW!)

"Dr. Doom warns: 'Correction Time!'" to Wall Street. "At market tops Wall Street gets greedy and greedier. Main Street dumb and dumber. Washington blind and blinder. Widespread denial." says PAUL B. FARRELL refering to Marc Faber's latest market comment projecting a "vicious" drop in the Dow coupled with a "vicious rise in gold, possibly pushing gold to an astounding $2,000 or more an ounce."

The U.S. trade deficit soared to an all-time high of $725.8 billion in 2005, pushed upward by record imports of oil, food, cars and other consumer goods -- up by 17.5 percent from the previous record of $617.6 billion set in 2004. "It's not just China, it's not just oil, we spend more than we produce, end of story" said Jay Bryson, an international economist with Wachovia.

Barron's reported last week, "Investors have been fixated on Google the past few weeks, as its shares have tumbled nearly 25% from a peak of $475 -- and the fact is, there could be a lot more tumbling ahead. The share price could well be cut in half over the next year as the Internet giant grapples with growing competition from Microsoft and Yahoo!, increased pricing pressures in its online ad sales and mounting concern about what's known as click fraud."

"It's a nervous market," said Michael Metz, chief investment strategist at Oppenheimer & Co. "We're getting mixed signals on the economy, and on corporate profits with some big headline disappointments." Google Inc's weaker-than-expected earnings caused an $11 billion loss in stock "value".

Twenty of 29 traders, investors and analysts surveyed from Sydney to Chicago on Feb. 2-3 by Bloomberg advised buying gold. Credit Agricole Cheuvreux raised its mid-cycle gold price estimate from $750/oz to $900/oz, suggesting the possibility gold could climb to $2,000 an ounce and higher in a January 30th sector report from the Parisian international security broker. Mineweb.com story

"Gold's stunning price surge recently suggests panic short-covering by The Gold Cartel and their allies. They had hoped to create a gold debacle with their raid on Tuesday and it didn't work", says GATA Chairman Bill Murphy, host of the recent "Gold Rush 21" conference.

TheStreet.com reported recently, "James Turk, founder of GoldMoney.com, believes that gold might test $850 per ounce before the end of March ... Several analysts, including Brien Lundin, gold analyst at Jefferson Financial, and editor of Gold Newsletter and Peter Grandich, editor of The Grandich Letter, believe that gold will likely try to test the $600 before an expected correction occurs."

President Bush recently declared "the state of our union is strong" despite Americans' anxieties about the war in Iraq, the economy and soaring energy costs.

"America is addicted to oil, which is often imported from unstable parts of the world," Bush said. America must break its long dependence on Mideast oil and Bush rebuked critics of his stay-the-course strategy for the unpopular war in Iraq. Full Transcript

Author/CEO Craig R. Smith hastens to add, "America is also addicted to debt. Both oil and precious metals jumped up over 10% in January, which should be telling us something is out of kilter in the global economy. As with all addictions, a new strategy is needed to help America achieve both oil and debt independence. Mr. Smith's advice to CNBC on how to end the Mid-East oil stranglehold...

Frank Gaffney reports,"There is reason to believe the Iranian regime is working toward a capability that could destroy America as we know it. As a result, America could be transformed from a 21st Century superpower into a pre-industrial society almost instantaneously."

"A report to the Congress last year found a single nuclear weapon detonated in space high above the U.S. could unleash an immensely powerful electromagnetic pulse (EMP). An EMP wave would damage or destroy the electrical grid upon which our society utterly depends.

J.P. Morgan announced recently that gold prices may reach $800 an ounce by the end of 2007 on supply worries, firming jewelery demand, geopolitical concerns and favorable currency environment. Prices might jump over $600 in 2006, if Iran's nuclear issue heated up and oil hit $100 a barrel, J.P. Morgan said.

The bull market may attract even more new money in the coming years, with potential for bigger price spikes. "Like a gorilla with a gun, gold can go anywhere it wants," said Peter Hillyard, head of metals sales, ANZ Investment Bank.

"This is the year to watch out for the end of the great American spending binge," Morgan Stanley Chief Economist Stephen Roach told the 735 attendees of the World Economic Forum in the Swiss resort city of Davos. CBNC interviewed George Soros, asking his opinion of the U.S. markets amid all of the positive talk from government and industry leaders in Davos -- his response? "Think Titanic ... I see people dancing while the ship slowly sinks in a sea of debt."

Ben Bernanke: An unworldly professor -- "The new chairman of the US Federal Reserve has spent the best part of his life studying the archives of the 1930s, engrossed in the arcana of monetary policy under the gold standard. So far, he seems airily insouciant over a US current account deficit nearing 7pc of GDP, or over the disturbing news that Americans are now drawing down net saving to pay bills at the fastest rate since 1933. "I am a Great Depression buff, says Bernanke."

Swiss America CEO, Craig R. Smith comments, "Escalating geopolitical uncertainty, rising oil and commodity prices and a reckless disregard for the stock market risks are a formula for disappointment and declines on Wall Street unless investors wise up and diversify assets into other markets."

"The American public has not yet understood the stranglehold that Iran and OPEC has upon our future oil supplies -- nor the race between nations to devalue their currencies (including the dollar) -- nor the reason Central banks are buying gold and selling paper ... but they will in due time." says Smith.

"Finding financial truth or value without a plumb line is impossible. The plumb line used to be the U.S dollar, until it began a steep decline in 2002. Today gold is emerging as the new international plumb line, in a cockeyed world of paper and debt -- which explains why it has doubled in value over the last five years -- AND why why it will double or triple again in the next five years." (see Introducing THE RULE OF GOLD).

Adam Hamilton, of ZEALllc.com asks, "Is gold really at a breathtaking 25-year high once the radically changing measuring stick of the US dollar is considered? Not even close! So far in real terms gold has barely clawed back above where it languished for years in the mid-1990s. The recent real-gold prices still look dirt cheap compared to average gold prices of the last 35 years or so. It is not prudent or valid to compare today's dollars to dollars of decades past without adjusting for inflation. Whenever the financial media insists on doing this it is lazy at best and intentionally trying to mislead investors at worst. We won't really see 25-year gold highs until the metal exceeds $1250!"

We're not surprised last year, millions of prudent investors worldwide came to the same conclusion: a portfolio without gold was a luxury they could no longer afford. Gold closed out 2005 at $517.40 an ounce, and is forecast to gain further in 2006 as funds and investors see it as a safe haven amid worries about inflation, economic growth and geo-politics.

"Commodities are an asset class for the first time in history", says Barrons Roundtable member Mark Farber, who "thinks the price will eventually exceed $3,000."

The recent metals rally shows no signs of running out of steam amid solid demand as higher energy prices fuel inflation concerns. Investors and funds are finally re-allocating assets out of stocks and bonds and into gold.

"The U.S. rare coin market looks strong in 2006 as many first time clients have begun to purchase collectible gold coins for their portfolios. They are taking a percentage of their wealth and diversifying out of paper assets and into tangible assets. Any pullback in spot gold is EXACTLY what they are looking for to get started", says Tom Rodriguez, Sr. broker at Swiss America.

"Gold's recent correction serves as a timely reminder that nothing, especially not gold, rises in a straight line", says Alec Hogg at Mineweb.com. "Since the Bull Market started in mid 2001, the gold price's progression has been marked by six distinctive mini-cycles.

"First of these saw its value rise from around $250 to $280. Gold then consolidated around $275 before its next sprint, to $325 (in 2002). Next came a run from $300 to early 2003's new peak of $370, followed by the retracement in the gold price to $330 and the subsequent rise to $425 (early 2004). In 2005 the run saw gold moving from $380 to $450 before consolidating around $420. That was where the most recent surge started, with the price touching a 24-year high of $540. All of this suggests the four year long Bull Market is intact."

Gold's 18% annualized gain in 2005 is over SIX times higher than the S&P 500 -- a performance that has speculators and long-term investors actively accumulating during any price dip.

The "recycling of petro dollars into gold as a form of money, and strength in demand for gold jewelry in India, will drive prices to $650 in 2006" said Frank Holmes, chief investment officer at U.S. Global Investors.

GATA Chairman Bill Murphy told Canada's Globe & Mail recently, "The forces of darkness are finally on the run," refering to the recent rise of gold as proof of the victory over central bankers, political heavies and the conspiracy of silence that has kept his message of gold market manipulation out of the U.S. media. Story: Major Gold Bug Says Conspiracy Beaten. Free CD Offer featuring Bill Murphy Interview.

Gold has rallied sharply in recent months, amid robust demand for jewelery in China and India, buying by central banks, notably Russia, and inflation concerns that have been fueled by a surge in energy prices. Gold's bullish pattern of higher lows and higher highs is attracting more momentum-based buying.

Buying gold under $260 an ounce?

Using the Fed Inflation calculator, the recent high in gold of $540.00 "2005 dollars" today equates to just $252.00 "1981 dollars". So, for gold to reach 850 '1981 dollars' again, it would have to top 2,000 '2005 dollars' (see chart)

"Why is everyone so bullish on bullion?" asks The Washington Post.

"Investors traditionally pile into gold as a safe haven when the dollar drops, inflation rises and economic calamity looms. The trouble is, none of those things appears to be happening. The dollar is rising, inflation appears in check and the U.S. economy, while shaky in spots, does not seem headed for immediate disaster. Economic reports released Tuesday were uniformly rosy. Consumer confidence, demand for big-ticket durable goods and new home sales all were up."

Richard Russell (Dow Theory Letters) has an answer... "Gold has entered a new phase. This phase is characterized by gold separating itself from all paper currencies including the dollar. It's clear that something has changed -- that gold is now being accepted by sophisticated investors, not as a speculation, but as an alternative currency. Thus, over recent weeks while the dollar was strong, gold has continued to climb. Such action would have been considered almost impossible even a few months ago.

"Gold is now being accepted as the fourth currency along with the dollar, the euro and the yen. But there is a difference. Gold is also being recognized as the tangible currency and the ONLY SAFE currency. That gold pays no interest -- but is still at an 18-year high in terms of dollars -- is a testament to its value and safety in the eyes of sophisticated investors."

Major funds as well as individual investors are seeking alternatives to stocks and instead are buying up precious metals -- despite tamer inflation numbers, lower oil prices and a firmer dollar.

A mere five years ago, gold was considered the laughing stock of the financial community. But who's laughing about the wisdom of owning gold now?

In the words of the soon-to-be-former Fed Chairman Alan Greenspan, 'If you want to know where interest rates are going, watch gold!'

According to entertainer (and long-time Swiss America customer and friend) Pat Boone, "The rising price of gold SHOULD be telling you that interest rates are rising and so is inflation! Over the past five years GOLD has quietly become the hottest commodity on earth, and thus, the price has doubled. But, the price of gold is still reasonable compared to our national debt. The entire world is now rediscovering the wisdom of owning gold. Shouldn't you? I recommend calling the number one name in U.S. gold coins, SWISS AMERICA for the number one book on gold, Rediscovering Gold in the 21st Century by Craig Smith." For details, read Swiss America's NEW Special Alert, GOLD RUSH, Phase II ... "The gold market entered the second phase of the bull market in 2005. Rising inflation and out-of-control debt will no doubt continue to drive gold up in 2006."


QUOTE OF THE WEEK ...

"Do not be fooled by the occassional downdrafts in the price of gold on futures markets. These swoons are manipulated or technical events that are largely meaningless within a much bigger picture."

-Rick Ackerman

Last week's quote ... "The soundness of a nation's currency is essential to the soundness of its economy."

-ALAN GREENSPAN, U.S. Fed Chairman (1988-2006)

The week before's quote ... "Gold isn't rising on the U.S. inflation statistics. Get real -- gold is rising because the central banks of the world are destroying what's left of paper money. 'Competitive devaluations' is the name of the game"
-RICHARD RUSSELL, -Dow Theory Letters, 1/11/06


SWISSAMERICA.COM "GOLDEN MINUTE" EXPANDS
"Give us a minute. . . and we'll give you the gold market news. . . and help understanding it!"

Feb. 7, 2006 -- PHOENIX, AZ (IFN) -- Swissamerica.com today announced they have expanded their daily sixty-second radio feature "The Golden Minute" to include Talk Radio Network (TRN) nationally and two Pacific Northwest talk stations KVI in Seattle, Washington and KMED in Medford, Oregon.

The Golden Minute offers radio/Internet listeners the first and only daily gold market closing report which is heard nationally. The daily feature is recorded by Real Money Perspectives editor, David Bradshaw Monday through Friday after the New York gold market closes at 1:30pm EST and then is posted online by 2pm Eastern (11am Pacific).

Millions of Americans are just as interested in what's happening in the gold and commodity markets as they are on what's happening in stock markets each day. Yet often gold market news does not even make it onto the mainstream media newsroom radar screens -- still dominated by Wall Street news of the day.

Therefore, The Golden Minute is taking the emerging bull market in gold directly to the people in bite-size pieces daily. Listen to a sample of yesterday's feature (2-6-06) -- "2/3 of traders and analysts advise buying gold".

The Golden Minute will air on TRN weekdays between noon (PST) and midnight (PST). TRN is known as a powerhouse in developing new talent and syndicating local talent to a national audience -- developing talk superstars such as Art Bell, Michael Savage, Jerry Doyle, Tammy Bruce and Rusty Humphries.

SwissAmerica.com is proud to sponsor this feature and offer listeners a variety of multi-media resources to help the public get up to speed on gold quickly. Swiss America CEO, Craig R. Smith records a new special offer for the feature regularly. "The Rule of Gold", a brand new financial journal is offered free to Golden Minute listeners this week by Mr. Smith.

Producer David Bradshaw promises: "Give us a minute. . . and we'll give you the gold news -- and some resources to help understand it!"

Listeners can bookmark and listen daily online at this link: "The Golden Minute" For more information contact David Bradshaw at ideaman@myideafactory.net.


A private interview with my financial guru ...
Swiss America CEO, Craig Smith... on stocks, oil, the dollar, the debt... and gold!
By Joseph Farah

I recently asked Craig Smith, WND columnist and CEO of Swiss America, if he would be kind enough to help my readers understand and prepare for what he calls "major economic changes facing our nation in the year ahead".

So, we recently sat down one-on-one and recorded a half-hour interview -- and what I discovered is that Americans should get prepared for another financial major shock in the year ahead. A shock which won't be announced by mass media headlines until it's too late!

Starting in 2001 with his book, "Rediscovering Gold in the 21st Century" Mr. Smith has forecasted the future of gold, oil and stocks with uncanny accuracy. And best of all Mr. Smith speaks in down-to-earth language. We cover ...
* What's ahead for stocks, oil, the dollar, precious metals and coins.

* The new 21st Century "commodity-driven era" (which began five years ago).

* OK. Then, isn't it too late for smaller investors to get in on the new bull market in tangible assets? We cover that.

* What about the risks of owning tangible assets -- versus not owning them? Covered.

* PLUS, Mr. Smith shares his thoughts on nuclear Iran's "Black Gold Stanglehold".

Please take advantage of this unique FREE offer today!

Call Swiss America at 800-289-2646 or register here to get your FREE copy of my new "RULE OF GOLD" CD featuring the interview with Craig Smith ... and as a bonus... you'll also receive Mr. Smith's financial journal, "THE RULE OF GOLD" also free of charge.

Find out how easy it is to put yourself on a PERSONAL gold standard this year, so no matter what happens in the years ahead, you and your family are protected!

P.S. Not sure? Listen to this 2:00 Introduction from the CD!


ABOUT THE EDITOR

David M. Bradshaw is Editor of REAL MONEY PERSPECTIVES, a new, syndicated daily financial/cultural news digest. In 2001, he published REDISCOVERING GOLD IN THE 21ST CENTURY: The Complete Guide to the Next Gold Rush and has been an economic commentator since 1987, when he produced the World Economic Perspectives radio show. In 2004, he produced "A CITIZEN'S GUIDE TO COUNTER-TERRORISM" a free-to-the-public educational resource on DVD and CD. In 2005, he released a new CD, "WHAT'S YOUR WORLDVIEW?" a one-hour CD sample from his 24-hour series, "THE BIG PICTURE: The Shape of Things to Come" discussing geopolitical, economic and spiritual trends in the 21st Century. Read my 2006 book review of, "The Meaning of Life" ... MORE at MIF... PERSONAL NOTE: Youngest daughter Braida Zoe (age 2) feeds herself, climbs, swims, trampolines and is building an ever-widening vocabulary.


DISCLAIMER: All of the provided information is believed to be accurate, however errors are possible. The opinions in the Commentary section do not necessarily reflect the opinions of Swiss America. Past performance of any investment is no guarantee of future performance. All investments have risk.

More Links

Weekly Charts

Current Spot Prices

Weekly Charts
Current Spot Prices

Gold

$2205.63

Silver

$24.61

Platinum

$908.27